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TD-like #94L has moved inland over Central America with heavy rains and gusty winds. Wave approaching Antilles but shear is high.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Michael) , Major: 6 (Michael) Florida - Any: 6 (Michael) Major: 6 (Michael)
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#943396 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 07.Oct.2018)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W...INLAND ERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 85.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART