Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Advisories to begin on Subtropical Storm #Andrea Interests in Bermuda should take precautions and monitor watches and warnings
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 222 (Michael) , Major: 222 (Michael) Florida - Any: 222 (Michael) Major: 222 (Michael)
29.5N 68.7W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1006mb
N at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#943630 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:59 AM 09.Oct.2018)

Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the
low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of
circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth
one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications
from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is expected to strengthen a
little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable
oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Thereafter, a significant
increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
SSTs should cause weakening. The global models all show the
depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official
forecast predicts dissipation accordingly.

The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a
well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt. The
depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in
that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves
toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that
Leslie is embedded in. After that time, when the system weakens and
becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast. The models
are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


INIT 09/1000Z 10.3N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Cangialosi