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| #943676 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 09.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 The cloud pattern of the cyclone features a curved band that wraps around the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T2.5/35 kt, and that is used for the initial intensity, making the system a tropical storm. The environment appears conducive for some additional strengthening during the next 24 hours or so, with SSTs above 28C and generally light to moderate westerly shear. After that time, the shear increases to 25-30 kt and SSTs along the forecast track fall below 27C by 72 hours. These factors should result in weakening, and all of the global models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast follows these trends and is close to the various consensus aids through the forecast period. Based on geostationary imagery and a 0815Z SSMIS pass, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/08, with Nadine currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. The ridge will weaken as a mid/upper-level trough that Leslie is embedded in digs southward along 40W longitude. This pattern will cause Nadine to turn more northwestward by 24 hours. By 96 hours, a weakening Nadine should bend back to the west as a shallow system. The new NHC track forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one due to the new initial position, and lies near HCCA through 48 hours and closer to the TVCA multi-model consensus after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 10.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 11.1N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 11.9N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 13.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.3N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 16.7N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
