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Tracking #94L in the SW Carib likely to produce very heavy rains over C America this coming week and a Wave nearing NE coast of S America
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Michael) , Major: 5 (Michael) Florida - Any: 5 (Michael) Major: 5 (Michael)
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#943728 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 09.Oct.2018)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 86.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 86.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 86.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN