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| #943786 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 09.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Satellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time. A WindSat pass from earlier today showed the development of an eye feature, and with the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at hurricane strength, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt. The latest GOES-16 proxy visible imagery suggests that a ragged eye has formed, although the eyewall is open on the southwestern side. Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread in the model ensembles with Leslie`s final destination ranging from Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows this trend, but is very low confidence. With fairly low shear and marginally warm waters for the next day or two, there is no reason to expect that Leslie won`t continue to intensify. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, with the normally conservative ECMWF and GFS models even suggesting that Leslie becomes a category 2 hurricane in a couple of days. Most of the rest of the guidance is lower than those models, but the intensity forecast is shaded in the direction of the ECMWF/GFS, and is higher than the last NHC prediction. After that time, an increase in shear and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is even possible it will become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but I`m not going to show that at this time since I was too premature last night in this transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 29.5N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 28.4N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 28.0N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 28.6N 39.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 32.2N 27.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 30.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
