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| #943979 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 10.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 The exposed low-level center of Nadine is now peeking out from beneath its upper cloud canopy. The initial intensity has been held at 55 kt out of respect for earlier ASCAT data, but it is possible that some weakening has occurred since this morning. Strong westerly wind shear will likely prevent Nadine from becoming any better organized going forward, so the official intensity forecast now calls for steady weakening for the next 2 days. All of the dynamical models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within the next 72 h, and the NHC forecast now shows dissipation occuring by that point. Nadine is moving steadily northwestward with an initial motion of 315/7 kt. As long as Nadine remains a tropical cyclone, it should stay on a similar heading, and the models are in generally good agreement on its track. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the southwest, and is generally close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids at all times. From 48 h onward, the cyclone or its remnant trough will likely be entirely separated from its convection and turn westward in low-level easterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 13.1N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 13.8N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 14.8N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 16.2N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
