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#944047 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 10.Oct.2018)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Another burst of deep convection has formed near the center of
Nadine, which is typical in sheared tropical cyclones. A recent
ASCAT pass indicated several believable 50-55 kt winds, so the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The shear is
only forecast to increase over the next couple of days, which
should lead to weakening, especially by Friday. All of the dynamical
models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the weekend, and no significant changes were made to
the previous forecast.

Nadine continues to move northwestward due to a ridge near the Cabo
Verde Islands. This general course is forecast for the next day or
so until Nadine become a more shallow system, which should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. The previous
interpolated forecast came in basically on top of the new consensus
and corrected-consensus guidance, so the new track forecast is very
close to the previous NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.6N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.3N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.3N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake