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#944108 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 11.Oct.2018)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Nadine is a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located
near the western edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT
pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt
range, and since the satellite appearance has not changed much, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. This value is near the high end
of the satellite-based intensity estimates. The environment near
Nadine is expected to become even more hostile during the next
couple of days due to the combined effects of strong west-
southwesterly shear and drier air. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast, and dissipation is expected to occur in 2 to 3 days when
the shear is forecast to be in excess of 30 kt. The models are in
good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC
intensity forecast.

The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from previous advisories. Nadine is expected
to continue moving northwestward for about another day while the
tropical storm remains relatively deep, or vertically coherent.
After that time, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is
forecast to turn to the left in the low-level flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is not too
different than the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.1N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi