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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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| #944219 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 11.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 78.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Danville, Virginia, and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) was reported at Burlington, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina. Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occuring across portions of central North Carolina and southern Virginia and will spread across northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia this evening and tonight. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south- central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
