|#944281 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 11.Oct.2018)|
Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018
Although Nadine remains under the influence of strong southwesterly
shear, a new burst of convection went up a few hours ago and covered
the low-level center again. The initial intensity remains 45 kt
based on consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Even
stronger shear is expected to cause Nadine to weaken during the
next day or two, and the global models all agree that the system
will open up into a trough by 48 hours. The updated NHC forecast
is unchanged from the previous one.
Nadine is moving west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. A low-level
ridge is forecast to steer the cyclone west-northwestward and then
westward at an increasing speed until it dissipates by 48 hours.
The new track guidance has bended slightly southwestward on this
cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that
direction toward the multi-model consensus aids and HCCA guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 14.9N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.2N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 15.8N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH