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#9720 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 23.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT
TEXAS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 92.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART