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System riding coast of South Carolina has a 20% chance for development, likely just rain though.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Barry) , Major: 312 (Michael) Florida - Any: 312 (Michael) Major: 312 (Michael)
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#974638 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 13.Jul.2019)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Mississippi River
to east of Grand Isle has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle to Cameron
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. Barry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Sunday, and this general motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Barry will move across central Louisiana tonight, through
northern Louisiana on Sunday, and over Arkansas Sunday night
and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts, and these winds are occurring near the coast
to the southeast of the center. Additional weakening is expected
as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken
to a depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 15 inches over south-central Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-
threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions should persist
into Sunday morning. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in
squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through Sunday across
portions of Louisiana, southern and western Mississippi, and
southern and eastern Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown