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System riding coast of South Carolina has a 20% chance for development, likely just rain though.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Barry) , Major: 312 (Michael) Florida - Any: 312 (Michael) Major: 312 (Michael)
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#974949 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 15.Jul.2019)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry Advisory Number 23
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY DRIFTING INTO MISSOURI...
...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ARKANSAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 92.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 26 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect from the ARKLATEX eastward
through the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley.

Flood Warnings are in effect for portions of far southeast Texas,
southern Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for portions of the
Louisiana coast.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry
was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 92.8 West, or very
close to the Arkansas and Missouri border close to Branson, MO.
Barry is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
is expected to turn toward the northeast overnight. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Maximum sustained winds are near 15 mph (30 km/h) with higher
gusts. Most of the 15 mph sustained winds are well removed from
the center, with breezy southeasterly winds near the Mississippi
River. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. The models forecast Barry to maintain a loosely defined and
weak surface circulation through Wednesday night. The circulation
will beome increasingly shallow and stretched, and may not survive
when it reaches terrain in western Pennsylvania on Thursday. The
system should, however, remain capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across Arkansas, western Tennessee and Kentucky,
southeast Missouri, and northwest Mississippi.

Rainfall had ended in Texas and Louisiana. Storm total amounts there
were generally between 3 and 6 inches, but with embedded swaths of
dramatically higher totals. One gauge measured 23.43 inches was made
to the north of Lake Charles, Louisiana, near Ragley.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible Tuesday from
southern Arkansas toward the western Tennessee Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next public advisory will be issued at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Burke