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#9769 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 23.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 71
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SAN
LUIS PASS TEXAS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN
WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...29.4 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART