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| #979682 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 27.Aug.2019) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 After a brief period when the center was near the edge of the convection this morning, once again the northwesterly shear disrupted the cloud pattern, and the low-level center has become detached from the main thunderstorm activity. The Dvorak estimates have not changed and still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Earlier ASCAT data also indicated some vectors of 30 kt in the southeast quadrant. Since the shear is not forecast to abate, only a small increase in intensity is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and should become extratropical while becoming absorbed by a larger trough. The depression meandered all day, but it has now been moving slowly toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 6 knots. This motion is highly uncertain because it includes the back and forth shifting of the center from the edge of the convection during the past several hours. The southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northward and then northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little bit to the north in this advisory following the northward shift of the multimodel consensus TVCA and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.8N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.7N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 41.5N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
