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| #979845 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 28.Aug.2019) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 Strong northerly shear has continued to take a toll on Erin, with the system becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is supported by earlier ASCAT data and observations from buoy 41001. Northwesterly shear should continue to prevent strengthening while the system remains over warm waters tonight. If deep convection does not return soon, the system is likely to become post-tropical. Erin or its remnants should merge with a frontal system on Thursday and it could strengthen due to baroclinic processes after that time. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical gale in 24 hours, and is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Erin has turned northward or 360/11 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. After that time, it is expected to accelerate north-northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 34.5N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 36.8N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1800Z 40.7N 68.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0600Z 45.3N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
