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| #979889 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 28.Aug.2019) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new convection has developed around the center of Erin`s circulation over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to baroclinic processes. Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt. The cyclone is expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.6N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch |
