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| #983826 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 24.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave images show that Jerry`s cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate. Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively, support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt. Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking its toll on Jerry. Weakening has begun, and the statistical- dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment persisting through the entire 5 day period. Consequently, further weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this scenario is consistent with global model forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. Jerry will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the previously mentioned approaching trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the 24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the reliable TVCA multi-model consensus. Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
