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| #984088 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 25.Sep.2019) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo, and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance through 72 hours. Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5, the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto |
