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| #986146 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 AM 14.Oct.2019) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 Melissa is hanging on to tropical storm status. Satellite images indicate that an area of deep convection continues to pulse in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation, but the remainder of the cyclone consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The center of Melissa is losing definition as it is becoming increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest due to the interaction with a front about 90 n mi to its northwest. An ASCAT-C pass from around 0100 UTC showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at that value. This wind speed estimate is a little higher than the Dvorak estimates. Melissa is expected to remain in hostile conditions of strong westerly wind shear and dry mid-level air, and it is headed for progressively cooler waters. These conditions should promote weakening and ultimately dissipation within a day or two. Although the official forecast doesn't show Melissa dissipating until 36 hours, most of the models show the storm opening up into a trough later today, so it could certainly dissipate sooner than forecast. The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 17 kt. An even faster east-northeast to east motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 40.7N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 41.2N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 41.5N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
