Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Subtropical dev pos this week well east of Florida. Eastern EPAC low heads towards Central America.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1284697 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 05.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 326 PM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. Afternoon weather analysis shows a broad upper trough extending over the eastern 2/3 of the United States with the stronger flow centered over the Ohio River valley. While at the surface, a sub-1000mb low sits over northern Canada while its associated cold front drags all the way down the spine of the Appalachians, while to the east high pressure sits off the coast. With the cold front slowly pushing east it is allowing the high pressure to continue to filter in a warm and humid airmass for this time of year across the local area. Cloud cover was able to clear out across the SE and Eastern Shore allowing for temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s. While across the Piedmont cloud cover and light showers have been able to persist through much of the day causing temps to reach into the low 70s. By this evening the cold front is expected to move into the area before stalling once again. The cold front is likely to stall along the I-85 corridor allowing for showers and a possible thunderstorm to track along the boundary. The environment ahead of the boundary is favorable for heavy rainfall as weak instability and PWATS over 200+ percent of normal for early November is forecasted to be in place. Confidence is increasing that the Middle Peninsula and eastern Northern Neck, up to the Maryland Eastern Shore is likely to see moderate to heavy rainfall as the CAMS and ensembles come into better agreement. Some of the areas are likely to see 1-2" with higher totals associated with the higher precip late tonight/early tomorrow morning. While across the piedmont and and up into the RIC metro areas may receive upwards of 1" as weaker forcing will likely be in place. Friday morning and into Friday afternoon, a wave of low pressure is forecasted to move out of the NW helping to advance the cold front through the area and pushing the showers and isolated storms east. The environment will be very similar with perhaps some higher instability across the southeast and stronger upper level forcing. Withe the stronger upper level forcing this may potentially allow for more storm development. The shear vectors do support possible training of storms which may potentially lead to very localized flash flooding. The REFS ensemble looks to be the most reasonable with 1-2"+inches likely across SE VA and NE NC with possible 3"+ with any training storms. Will note that the HRRR and RRFS look to be very aggressive with widespread storm development leading to much higher totals. In addition to the possible flash flooding threat, there is also a very marginal severe threat across the south. Bulk-Shear will generally remain between 35-45kt and a ML- CAPE reaching near 500J/kg. These ingredients together could allow for a brief strong wind gusts with any stronger storm embedded in the line of showers/isolated storms tomorrow. There is also a very small tornado threat due to the weak 0-1 SRH (~100m^2/s^2), however, confidence is low at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. The chances of rain diminish by late Friday afternoon as the stronger cold front advances through the area. A closed low pressure will drop out of the NW and into the northern Mid- Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing our northwesterly flow. Much cooler and drier air is forecasted to advect into the area, dropping high temps back to seasonable. Highs this weekend and into early next week will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds Saturday will be breezy as wind gusts will be around 20-25mph out of the NW. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. The recent ensembles are continuing to show dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain chances. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1243 PM EST Thursday... A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals early this afternoon. Skies have begun to clear across the SE while across the piedmont and MD Eastern Shore low-level clouds are persisting. These low-level clouds are expected to clear through the rest of the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions to return to SBY and RIC. Gusty winds (gusts upwards of 20kt) will continue out of the S through the afternoon and into the early evening. By late tonight, lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to develop in central and western areas after 06Z, then spread eastward with RA/+RA through the end of the TAF period. VIS restrictions are likely. Outlook: Widespread RA and isolated TSRA will result in periods of sub-VFR conditions for most of the day on Friday. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions anticipated through the weekend. Some NW breezes are likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the eastern shore. && .MARINE... As of 327 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories issued for nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles for 4-5ft seas overnight. - Additional Small Craft Advisories likely Saturday into Sunday in the bay and nearshore coastal waters for elevated NW winds. Latest obs show breezy southerly winds on the backside of offshore high pressure. Winds are generally 10-15kt. Buoy obs show seas around 4ft. These conditions continue overnight with seas gradually building toward 5ft north of Cape Charles. Went ahead and put up a Small Craft Advisory for the northern nearshore coastal waters for the overnight period to cover the 5ft seas. Winds will diminish slightly and become more southwesterly tomorrow morning, allowing seas to fall back closer to 4ft. A cold front will pass through the region tomorrow afternoon. Winds over local waters will turn to the NW behind it by late tomorrow evening. High pressure behind the front will build in more from the west than the NW, so it will take a while for the cooler, drier air to move in and initiate increased winds. It will likely take until Saturday morning for Small Craft Advisory level winds to kick in. There is fairly high confidence in SCAs in at least the Ches. Bay Saturday into Sunday. Local wind probs show 90%+ for 18kt sustained winds across most of the marine area (outside of the rivers). A more marginal case for the coastal waters, though, since probs for sustained winds or gusts of 25kt are generally 50% or less and the offshore wind direction may prevent seas from building to 5ft or more within 20nm. NW/W winds may remain breezy into next week depending on the trajectory of the high pressure to the west. As of now, though, sub-advisory conditions look to prevail early to mid week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1284677 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 05.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1243 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are becoming increasingly likely, especially across eastern portions of the area. NW winds are now expected to be elevated across the waters later Saturday into Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. Early morning surface analysis shows the area of high pressure offshore with a cold front approaching the western edge of the state. There is a band of light showers on radar moving through central VA as of this writing. A brief couple of hundredths of an inch of rain will be possible if you`re under one. Light scattered showers will remain possible through just after daybreak. Additionally, guidance shows some patchy fog potentially developing across the southern VA Piedmont down into interior NE NC between 5-8am, though it shouldn`t be nearly as widespread or dense as it was yesterday morning. Another warm day is anticipated today as southerly flow increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers will be possible throughout the afternoon. However, the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night. The front will reach our CWA late this evening. This will be when the main batch of rain begins to initially develop across western and central portions of the area. The focus of the steadier rain will then shift to the eastern half of the area mid-day Friday through the evening hours as the front slowly progresses eastward. A wave of low pressure now looks to also develop and track along the frontal boundary, which will create locally enhanced areas of rainfall. Models continue to wobble this corridor of heavier rainfall maximums back and forth a bit, but the general consensus is for it to be from around Emporia through the Middle Peninsula and eastern Northern Neck, up to the Maryland Eastern Shore. Its becoming increasingly likely that there will be pockets of over 2 to 2.5 inches somewhere in that corridor. This will be a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall, with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent of normal for early November. In addition, guidance suggests a corridor of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent associated with the frontal boundary and the developing wave of low pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast oriented band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially persisting over some locations for several hours. Further inland, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 appear reasonable, with the lowest amounts expected across our northwestern counties. Confidence in those totals of 1.25 to 2 inches across eastern VA, northeastern NC, and the Eastern Shore is higher with this forecast package, along with the aforementioned pockets of higher amounts. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector (~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization. As a result, organized severe weather is generally not anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area. SPC does have a Marginal Risk of severe weather for SE VA/NE NC. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. The rain will gradually diminish from west to east later Friday afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore. A closed low pressure will drop into the northern Mid- Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing our northwesterly flow. This will allow drier and cooler air to fill into the area, dropping high temperatures back to more seasonable values. Highs this weekend and into early next week will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will increase across the local waters Saturday evening into Sunday, so some coastal locations could see breezy winds. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. Current model runs are now showing the dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1243 PM EST Thursday... A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals early this afternoon. Skies have begun to clear across the SE while across the piedmont and MD Eastern Shore low-level clouds are persisting. These low-level clouds are expected to clear through the rest of the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions to return to SBY and RIC. Gusty winds (gusts upwards of 20kt) will continue out of the S through the afternoon and into the early evening. By late tonight, lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to develop in central and western areas after 06Z, then spread eastward with RA/+RA through the end of the TAF period. VIS restrictions are likely. Outlook: Widespread RA and isolated TSRA will result in periods of sub-VFR conditions for most of the day on Friday. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions anticipated through the weekend. Some NW breezes are likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the eastern shore. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds will likely reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. The most likely timeframe for SCAs is late Friday night through midday Sunday. High pressure continues to move well offshore early this morning as a cold front approaches the area from the west. SE winds around 10 kt prevail over the waters with 3-4 foot seas. Winds become more southerly later today and increase to 10-15 kt. Wind speeds remain in that range through tonight and into part of Friday. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are possible. Seas may briefly reach 5 feet later tonight- Friday, but confidence is far too low to issue SCAs. The next upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature will drag a cold front through the waters Friday evening-Friday night. Showers are likely on Friday along and ahead of the front, with a wind shift to the NW behind it. After the FROPA Friday night, the winds will shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Winds may diminish by a couple of knots Saturday afternoon. However, a secondary CAA surge crosses the waters Saturday evening...with NW winds increasing to 20-25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday evening-early Sunday morning. Confidence in SCAs is increasing, and local wind probabilities show a 60-90% chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the bay for much of the time from Saturday morning-midday Sunday. Seas likely build to 4-6 feet over the weekend across the nearshore waters (highest 20nm offshore). High pressure will build back into the area later on Sunday into Monday, which will result in winds diminishing below SCA thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284657 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 555 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are becoming increasingly likely, especially across eastern portions of the area. NW winds are now expected to be elevated across the waters later Saturday into Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. Early morning surface analysis shows the area of high pressure offshore with a cold front approaching the western edge of the state. There is a band of light showers on radar moving through central VA as of this writing. A brief couple of hundredths of an inch of rain will be possible if you`re under one. Light scattered showers will remain possible through just after daybreak. Additionally, guidance shows some patchy fog potentially developing across the southern VA Piedmont down into interior NE NC between 5-8am, though it shouldn`t be nearly as widespread or dense as it was yesterday morning. Another warm day is anticipated today as southerly flow increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers will be possible throughout the afternoon. However, the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night. The front will reach our CWA late this evening. This will be when the main batch of rain begins to initially develop across western and central portions of the area. The focus of the steadier rain will then shift to the eastern half of the area mid-day Friday through the evening hours as the front slowly progresses eastward. A wave of low pressure now looks to also develop and track along the frontal boundary, which will create locally enhanced areas of rainfall. Models continue to wobble this corridor of heavier rainfall maximums back and forth a bit, but the general consensus is for it to be from around Emporia through the Middle Peninsula and eastern Northern Neck, up to the Maryland Eastern Shore. Its becoming increasingly likely that there will be pockets of over 2 to 2.5 inches somewhere in that corridor. This will be a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall, with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent of normal for early November. In addition, guidance suggests a corridor of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent associated with the frontal boundary and the developing wave of low pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast oriented band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially persisting over some locations for several hours. Further inland, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 appear reasonable, with the lowest amounts expected across our northwestern counties. Confidence in those totals of 1.25 to 2 inches across eastern VA, northeastern NC, and the Eastern Shore is higher with this forecast package, along with the aforementioned pockets of higher amounts. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector (~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization. As a result, organized severe weather is generally not anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area. SPC does have a Marginal Risk of severe weather for SE VA/NE NC. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. The rain will gradually diminish from west to east later Friday afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore. A closed low pressure will drop into the northern Mid- Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing our northwesterly flow. This will allow drier and cooler air to fill into the area, dropping high temperatures back to more seasonable values. Highs this weekend and into early next week will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will increase across the local waters Saturday evening into Sunday, so some coastal locations could see breezy winds. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. Current model runs are now showing the dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain chances. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 600 AM EST Thursday... Generally VFR conditions prevail early this morning, with the exception of far western areas where some IFR CIGs have developed. RIC may see some MVFR CIGs through ~15Z before generally improving to VFR. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will continue to stream in today. A few scattered SHRA are possible through the day, but these should not be heavy enough to produce any VIS issues. Winds turn to the SSW and increase to 10-15 kt after ~15Z. Lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to develop in central and western areas after 00Z, then spread eastward with RA/+RA through the end of the TAF period. VIS restrictions are likely. Outlook: Widespread RA and isolated TSRA will result in periods of sub-VFR conditions for most of the day on Friday. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions anticipated through the weekend. Some NW breezes are likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the eastern shore. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds will likely reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. The most likely timeframe for SCAs is late Friday night through midday Sunday. High pressure continues to move well offshore early this morning as a cold front approaches the area from the west. SE winds around 10 kt prevail over the waters with 3-4 foot seas. Winds become more southerly later today and increase to 10-15 kt. Wind speeds remain in that range through tonight and into part of Friday. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are possible. Seas may briefly reach 5 feet later tonight- Friday, but confidence is far too low to issue SCAs. The next upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature will drag a cold front through the waters Friday evening-Friday night. Showers are likely on Friday along and ahead of the front, with a wind shift to the NW behind it. After the FROPA Friday night, the winds will shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Winds may diminish by a couple of knots Saturday afternoon. However, a secondary CAA surge crosses the waters Saturday evening...with NW winds increasing to 20-25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday evening-early Sunday morning. Confidence in SCAs is increasing, and local wind probabilities show a 60-90% chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the bay for much of the time from Saturday morning-midday Sunday. Seas likely build to 4-6 feet over the weekend across the nearshore waters (highest 20nm offshore). High pressure will build back into the area later on Sunday into Monday, which will result in winds diminishing below SCA thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284652 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 259 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated all discussions. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are becoming increasingly likely, especially across eastern portions of the area. NW winds are now expected to be elevated across the waters later Saturday into Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. Early morning surface analysis shows the area of high pressure offshore with a cold front approaching the western edge of the state. There is a band of light showers on radar moving through central VA as of this writing. A brief couple of hundredths of an inch of rain will be possible if youre under one. Light scattered showers will remain possible through just after daybreak. Additionally, guidance shows some patchy fog potentially developing across the southern VA Piedmont down into interior NE NC between 5-8am, though it shouldnt be nearly as widespread or dense as it was yesterday morning. Another warm day is anticipated today as southerly flow increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers will be possible throughout the afternoon. However, the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night. The front will reach our CWA late this evening. This will be when the main batch of rain begins to initially develop across western and central portions of the area. The focus of the steadier rain will then shift to the eastern half of the area mid-day Friday through the evening hours as the front slowly progresses eastward. A wave of low pressure now looks to also develop and track along the frontal boundary, which will create locally enhanced areas of rainfall. Models continue to wobble this corridor of heavier rainfall maximums back and forth a bit, but the general consensus is for it to be from around Emporia through the Middle Peninsula and eastern Northern Neck, up to the Maryland Eastern Shore. Its becoming increasingly likely that there will be pockets of over 2 to 2.5 inches somewhere in that corridor. This will be a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall, with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent of normal for early November. In addition, guidance suggests a corridor of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent associated with the frontal boundary and the developing wave of low pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast oriented band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially persisting over some locations for several hours. Further inland, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 appear reasonable, with the lowest amounts expected across our northwestern counties. Confidence in those totals of 1.25 to 2 inches across eastern VA, northeastern NC, and the Eastern Shore is higher with this forecast package, along with the aforementioned pockets of higher amounts. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector (~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization. As a result, organized severe weather is generally not anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area. SPC does have a Marginal Risk of severe weather for SE VA/NE NC. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this weekend into early next week. The rain will gradually diminish from west to east later Friday afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore. A closed low pressure will drop into the northern Mid- Atlantic/southern New England region on Saturday, reinforcing our northwesterly flow. This will allow drier and cooler air to fill into the area, dropping high temperatures back to more seasonable values. Highs this weekend and into early next week will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will increase across the local waters Saturday evening into Sunday, so some coastal locations could see breezy winds. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. Current model runs are now showing the dry weather persisting into the middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain chances. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions prevail early this morning. Mid and high clouds will continue to stream in overnight, with the potential for some lower stratus to move in from the W. A few SHRA are expected through the early morning, mainly across western portions of the area, but these should not be heavy enough to produce any VIS issues. Cloud bases likely lower to MVFR after daybreak across the west, potentially impacting RIC for a few hours. Winds turn to the SSW and increase to 10-15 kt after ~15Z, with mainly VFR conditions. Lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to move into western areas at the end of this TAF period. Outlook: Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with widespread SHRA and isolated TSRA resulting in periods of sub- VFR conditions. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally anticipated through the weekend. NW winds are likely to be gusty to 20-25 kt areawide Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the eastern shore. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds will likely reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. The most likely timeframe for SCAs is late Friday night through midday Sunday. High pressure continues to move well offshore early this morning as a cold front approaches the area from the west. SE winds around 10 kt prevail over the waters with 3-4 foot seas. Winds become more southerly later today and increase to 10-15 kt. Wind speeds remain in that range through tonight and into part of Friday. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are possible. Seas may briefly reach 5 feet later tonight- Friday, but confidence is far too low to issue SCAs. The next upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature will drag a cold front through the waters Friday evening-Friday night. Showers are likely on Friday along and ahead of the front, with a wind shift to the NW behind it. After the FROPA Friday night, the winds will shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with frequent gusts to 25 kt. Winds may diminish by a couple of knots Saturday afternoon. However, a secondary CAA surge crosses the waters Saturday eveningwith NW winds increasing to 20-25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt possible Saturday evening-early Sunday morning. Confidence in SCAs is increasing, and local wind probabilities show a 60-90% chance of sustained 18 kt winds on the bay for much of the time from Saturday morning-midday Sunday. Seas likely build to 4-6 feet over the weekend across the nearshore waters (highest 20nm offshore). High pressure will build back into the area later on Sunday into Monday, which will result in winds diminishing below SCA thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284637 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1247 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated all discussions. Latest guidance has trended wetter and shifted the axis of heavier rainfall somewhat farther northwest for Friday, with localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches becoming increasingly possible, especially across eastern portions of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing clouds with a few light showers or sprinkles possible through this evening. Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 AM EST Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing clouds with a few light showers or sprinkles possible through this evening. Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Thursday. High pressure continues to shift farther offshore this afternoon as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Cloud cover has increased more quickly than anticipated over much of the area. In addition, a few sprinkles and light rain showers have developed, especially across the southern half of the area, as moisture increases ahead of the next system. Expect this activity to remain generally light and spotty through this evening, with many locations staying dry. The increased cloud cover will likely limit additional warming this afternoon, although temperatures remain well above normal for early November. Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight as additional mid- level moisture streams into the region. Rain chances gradually increase across our western zones tonight, with the highest PoPs across far western Louisa, Fluvanna, and Prince Edward counties. Temperatures remain mild with lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Another warm day is anticipated for Thursday as southerly flow increases ahead of the approaching front. High temperatures likely climb into the mid to upper 70s with a few locations across SE VA and NE NC approaching 80 degrees. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and a few isolated showers or sprinkles will be possible during the day. However, the more widespread rainfall is expected to hold off until Thursday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected Thursday night through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible. Confidence continues to increase in a widespread rainfall event Thursday night through Friday as a slow-moving cold front approaches and crosses the region. Rain should develop across western portions of the area late Thursday night before becoming more widespread Friday morning. The primary forecast challenge continues to be the placement and magnitude of the heaviest rainfall, particularly given the potential for a wave of low pressure to develop and track northeast along the frontal boundary Friday. The latest 12z guidance has trended wetter, with the ECMWF shifting the axis of heavier precipitation a bit farther to the northwest compared to its previous runs. The 12z EPS has followed this trend, with increasing probabilities of exceeding both 1 and 2 inches across eastern portions of the area. The EPS mean now depicts rainfall amounts of 1.5 to locally over 2 inches across portions of SE VA and the MD Eastern Shore, with considerably lower amounts farther inland. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS remains notably wetter and farther northwest, depicting localized amounts of 3 to 4 inches from central VA northeastward toward the Eastern Shore. There is a favorable environment for locally heavy rainfall, with PWATs forecast to increase to 200+ percent of normal for early November. In addition, guidance suggests a corridor of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis and strong ascent associated with the frontal boundary and a potential developing wave of low pressure. This could support a southwest to northeast oriented band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, potentially persisting over some locations for several hours. While confidence in widespread rainfall has increased, uncertainty still remains regarding the precise location and intensity of this band. In general, rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 appears reasonable for much of the area with 1.5 to 2 inches or more possible across portions of eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible Friday, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. Forecast soundings indicate increasing deep-layer shear, generally 30 to 40 kts, with modest surface based instability developing in the warm sector (~500 J/kg MLCAPE). While the environment could support a few stronger storms, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely substantially limit destabilization. As a result, organized severe weather is generally not anticipated, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be completely ruled out across far SE portions of the area. Rainfall gradually diminishes from west to east later Friday afternoon into Friday night as the cold front pushes offshore. Drier and cooler conditions return for the weekend as northwest flow develops behind the front. High temperatures generally return to the 60s Saturday and Sunday with seasonably cool overnight lows. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions prevail early this morning. Mid and high clouds will continue to stream in overnight, with the potential for some lower stratus to move in from the W. A few SHRA are expected through the early morning, mainly across western portions of the area, but these should not be heavy enough to produce any VIS issues. Cloud bases likely lower to MVFR after daybreak across the west, potentially impacting RIC for a few hours. Winds turn to the SSW and increase to 10-15 kt after ~15Z, with mainly VFR conditions. Lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to move into western areas at the end of this TAF period. Outlook: Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with widespread SHRA and isolated TSRA resulting in periods of sub- VFR conditions. Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions generally anticipated through the weekend. NW winds are likely to be gusty to 20-25 kt areawide Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the eastern shore. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: Sub-SCA winds continue through Friday, but winds could reach SCA levels over the weekend in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. Another SCA event is possible early next week when a stronger front potentially crosses the waters. High pressure remains anchored off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon with generally light SE winds in the 5 to 10 kt range. The flow will gradually increase to 10 kts tonight into Thursday as a cold front approaches the area from the west. This will help turn winds more southerly, but the area of high pressure off the coast holds it position and the front should weaken and possibly dissipate before entering the coastal waters. This will keep the southerly flow to around 10 kts into the day on Friday. The onshore flow over the next 24 - 36 hours will push a little more swell toward the coast with seas increasing to 3 - 4 ft in the coastal waters. The next upper trough approaches and deepens over the Great Lakes on Friday and swings a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic States. This will produce periods of showers and southerly winds around 10 kt. Once the cold front passes the area on Friday night, the winds will shift to the west and gradually increase later Friday into the day on Saturday. With good cold air advection developing in the wake of the front, expect winds to possibly reach up to 20 - 25 kt Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. It is possible that SCA flags may be needed during that time period. High pressure will build back into the area later on Sunday, but after this the forecast confidence drops as the models diverge between a possible southern stream weather system over the gulf coast possibly impacting from the south or another strong northern stream cold push from central Canada. Will continue to monitor develops for early next week over the coming days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
