|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1231914 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 225 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of today as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns tonight through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Showers expected overnight, especially over NE NC and SE VA High pressure remains dominant across the region and dry, benign conditions are ongoing across the forecast area. Temperatures are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dew points are in the mid to upper 40s, making for quite a pleasant late May afternoon. A frontal boundary is currently located to our south across the Southeast and a shortwave is moving across the Tennessee River Valley. The frontal boundary draped to our south will gradually lift northwards later today, bringing increasing atmospheric moisture back to the area overnight. At around the same time, the aforementioned weak shortwave will move across the area which will work in tandem with the increased moisture to help initiate scattered showers across portions of the forecast area, with numerous showers possible in NE NC and SE VA. Instability will remain south of our area, so thunderstorms are not expected overnight. Guidance is trending later in terms of the onset of the rain, which may be due to the very dry airmass currently in place and the slower northward movement of the front and associated moisture. There is also a southward trend in the heaviest rainfall which would occur if the front did not lift as far north as originally forecast. Have nudged rain chances down slightly across our area to account for these trends, but have kept likely PoPs across NE NC and far SE VA. Forecast rainfall amounts are less than 0.10" NW of Richmond and on the Eastern Shore, between 0.10-0.25" between Richmond and Hampton Roads are, increasing to 0.30-0.65" in NE NC and far SE VA. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s, with near 60 degrees possible in NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. - Cool again Tues with precip chances increasing W to E in the afternoon and into Wed morning The bulk of the rain is forecast to fall tonight into early Monday morning. Conditions should start to dry out Monday morning into the afternoon as high pressure builds into the area and the shortwave moves offshore. Some showers are possible in NE NC/SE VA as the moisture and associated front remain nearby, but generally should be a drier afternoon. High pressure will remain dominant through early Tuesday morning, keeping PoPs at 10% or less through this timeframe. Thereafter, the high will eject offshore ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Guidance is showing the development of a wedge of cooler air most notably across the piedmont, which will likely keep temperatures cooler and likely help initiate light showers earlier than expected in this area. With this in mind, combined with the increasing cloud cover and rain possibly starting across the Piedmont in the earlier, have nudged temperatures down a few degrees for this area and PoPs up some in the western counties. The remainder of the forecast area will see highs in the upper 60s to near 70 during the day on Tuesday and increasing rain chances Tuesday afternoon. Instability will generally remain south and west of the area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, so thunder will remain out of the forecast through Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. The exact evolution of the area of low pressure remains somewhat uncertain. The GFS has a weak low developing off the coast and shifting offshore more quickly, while the ECMWF has more of an open trough that looks to double as a cold front supported by an upper trough. Showers could linger for a longer period of time if a the latter scenario plays out (ECMWF), while conditions could briefly dry out Thursday with a closed low quickly moving away (GFS). As of now, have kept generally slight chance to low end chance PoPs Thursday through the weekend to account for this uncertainty. Regardless, heavier rainfall is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday and WPC has placed portions of our forecast area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for those periods. Pending the outcome of the mid-late week synoptic set-up, the GFS is hinting that there could be a frontal passage by the start of the weekend. We will continue to iron out the details of the forecast as they become more clear over the next few forecast cycles. Temperatures will finally start to moderate and return back to near normal Thursday and Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s overnight. Due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the forecast late week, these temperatures could hedge +/- a few degrees pending the outcome of the forecast pattern setup, though no significant changes to temperatures are expected at this time. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 149 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail through the first part of tonight. Precip will start to move in after midnight, with the highest confidence in -RA at ECG, ORF, and PHF. Rainfall should miss SBY for the most part, so did not have much confidence to include mention of showers there. Have maintained the PROB30 at RIC due to lower confidence that steadier rainfall will reach the terminal, so this may need to be adjusted in the next TAF update. While precip will start to diminish tomorrow morning, CIGS are forecast to lower, with MVFR conditions included at all sites aside from SBY. Winds will be light through tomorrow, aside from occasional gusts at SBY this afternoon. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by Monday evening and continue through Tuesday morning. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday afternoon/evening and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 149 PM EDT Sunday... - A period with elevated, but mainly sub-SCA, NE winds are expected Monday across the lower Bay, Currituck Sound, and the Ocean S of Cape Charles. SCAs have been issued for the Currituck Sound where confidence in a short period of low-end SCAs is highest. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. High pressure is centered near the waters this afternoon, with NW-NE winds of 5-10 kt. Low pressure develops and tracks to our south (over NC/SC) later tonight through Monday. Winds will initially be onshore at 5-10 kt this evening but will shift to the NE and increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt south of Cape Charles by Monday AM (with speeds a few knots lower farther north). There is still the potential for a 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions across the lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound during the day on Monday with the elevated NE wind. However, the 12z/25 guidance is still not that bullish with respect to wind and local wind probs for > 18 kt winds are no higher than 10-20% for the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters, but are 25-50% across the NE NC waters (including the Currituck Sound). Went ahead and issued an SCA for the Currituck Sound but will hold off on headlines elsewhere due to lack of confidence. Will also have to monitor the potential for 5 ft seas across the NE NC coastal waters on Mon given the onshore flow. The wind diminishes Monday evening into early Tuesday as the high settles just off the northern mid-Atlantic coast (and the pressure gradient temporarily weakens locally). With the next approaching system, low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley Tue night/Wed, with a secondary sfc low developing along the North Carolina coast. The models differ with respect to the strength an position of the sfc low, which will affect the strength of this system. At this point, it does appear that SCA conditions are likely sometime late Tuesday night or Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E- SE winds and seas building to 4-6+ ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. Winds/seas slowly drop back off and turn more southerly late in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 149 PM EDT Sunday... Onshore flow will lead to rising water levels starting late tonight- Monday...with levels continuing to gradually rise on Tuesday. Most sites will remain below minor flood stage through Tue AM, although nuisance flooding is possible in/near Oyster/Bishop`s Head during the Monday evening/night high tide cycle. While there are still some model differences with respect to the strength and position of high pressure to our NE and low pressure tracking along the Carolina coast, there does appear to be a decent chance at seeing at least minor flooding in some portion of the Bay, lower James, and portions of the SE VA/NE NC coast during the high tide cycles starting Tuesday evening, potentially continuing through Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. && $$ |
| #1231904 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 149 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of today as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns tonight through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1013 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry with increasing clouds and highs in the 70s - Showers expected overnight, especially over NE NC and SE VA Another night of radiational cooling resulted in temperatures in the upper 40s to lower to mid 50s across most of the area. A few areas across the forecast area dropped into the lower 40s for a brief period. Since sunrise, temperatures have quickly rebounded into the 60s, with a few areas in NE NC hovering around 70 degrees under mostly clear skies. Today will feature high pressure across the region and dry, benign conditions through the afternoon, though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out later this afternoon across the SW counties. Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s (lower to mid 70s in the Eastern Shore) in the forecast. Dew points will start off in the mid 40s NW to low 50s SE and are expected to gradually increase throughout the day. A stationary boundary that is currently located well to our south across the Deep South will gradually start to lift northwards today, bringing increasing atmospheric moisture back to the area by late this afternoon into tonight. At around the same time, a weak shortwave will move across the area which will work in tandem with the increased moisture to help initiate scattered to numerous showers across the local area, with the highest rain chances being realized across the southern portion of our area. Instability will remain south of our area, so thunderstorms are not expected overnight. Without many heavier embedded showers and thunderstorms, rainfall totals will remain below 0.75" for all of the area, with most of the communities NW of Richmond and in the MD counties of the Eastern Shore expected to see around a tenth of an inch of rainfall or less. The timing of the rainfall will generally be after sunset, with the most widespread shower activity expected after midnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s, with near 60 degrees possible in NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. - Cool again Tues with precip chances increasing W to E in the afternoon and into Wed morning Sfc high pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Most of the area looks dry for Monday, but with the lingering boundary nearby to the S, showers could continue in NE NC and SE VA for at least the first half of the day. Cloud cover will gradually erode from N to S as that high pressure makes progress. Temps will be on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/around 70 in the SE/near the coast and low 70s elsewhere. High pressure then becomes positioned just NE of the area going into Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the local area from the SW on Tues afternoon. There is some uncertainty on how fast precip associated with the system can make it into the FA. The overall trend is a bit slower and largely holds off on precip until after 00z Wed, though the piedmont could see a few afternoon showers. Well below normal temps again on Tues with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. The end of the week still looks unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms. There is still a lot of uncertainty in timing, precip amounts, and thunder chances, however, due to disagreement in the global models on what will be the dominating synoptic feature during this period. The GFS focuses more on a warm front and developing low pressure system to the S, where the ECMWF and Canadian never really spin up that low pressure. Instead, the main rainmaker would be a cold front with an UL trough supporting it. The GFS is much slower than the other two and brings the front in on Saturday. Either way, the local area ends up with daily showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the Wed-Fri time period with yet another (lower) chance on Saturday. Wed looks like it could be the last day of below average temps for a little while with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the N/NW to the mid 70s in the SE. Temperatures return to the lower 80s (upper 70s on the Eastern Shore) Thurs-Sat. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 149 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail through the first part of tonight. Precip will start to move in after midnight, with the highest confidence in -RA at ECG, ORF, and PHF. Rainfall should miss SBY for the most part, so did not have much confidence to include mention of showers there. Have maintained the PROB30 at RIC due to lower confidence that steadier rainfall will reach the terminal, so this may need to be adjusted in the next TAF update. While precip will start to diminish tomorrow morning, CIGS are forecast to lower, with MVFR conditions included at all sites aside from SBY. Winds will be light through tomorrow, aside from occasional gusts at SBY this afternoon. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by Monday evening and continue through Tuesday morning. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday afternoon/evening and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 149 PM EDT Sunday... - A period with elevated, but mainly sub-SCA, NE winds are expected Monday across the lower Bay, Currituck Sound, and the Ocean S of Cape Charles. SCAs have been issued for the Currituck Sound where confidence in a short period of low-end SCAs is highest. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. High pressure is centered near the waters this afternoon, with NW-NE winds of 5-10 kt. Low pressure develops and tracks to our south (over NC/SC) later tonight through Monday. Winds will initially be onshore at 5-10 kt this evening but will shift to the NE and increase to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt south of Cape Charles by Monday AM (with speeds a few knots lower farther north). There is still the potential for a 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions across the lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound during the day on Monday with the elevated NE wind. However, the 12z/25 guidance is still not that bullish with respect to wind and local wind probs for > 18 kt winds are no higher than 10-20% for the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters, but are 25-50% across the NE NC waters (including the Currituck Sound). Went ahead and issued an SCA for the Currituck Sound but will hold off on headlines elsewhere due to lack of confidence. Will also have to monitor the potential for 5 ft seas across the NE NC coastal waters on Mon given the onshore flow. The wind diminishes Monday evening into early Tuesday as the high settles just off the northern mid-Atlantic coast (and the pressure gradient temporarily weakens locally). With the next approaching system, low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley Tue night/Wed, with a secondary sfc low developing along the North Carolina coast. The models differ with respect to the strength an position of the sfc low, which will affect the strength of this system. At this point, it does appear that SCA conditions are likely sometime late Tuesday night or Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E- SE winds and seas building to 4-6+ ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. Winds/seas slowly drop back off and turn more southerly late in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 149 PM EDT Sunday... Onshore flow will lead to rising water levels starting late tonight- Monday...with levels continuing to gradually rise on Tuesday. Most sites will remain below minor flood stage through Tue AM, although nuisance flooding is possible in/near Oyster/Bishop`s Head during the Monday evening/night high tide cycle. While there are still some model differences with respect to the strength and position of high pressure to our NE and low pressure tracking along the Carolina coast, there does appear to be a decent chance at seeing at least minor flooding in some portion of the Bay, lower James, and portions of the SE VA/NE NC coast during the high tide cycles starting Tuesday evening, potentially continuing through Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633. && $$ |
| #1231887 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1013 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of today as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns tonight through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1013 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry with increasing clouds and highs in the 70s - Showers expected overnight, especially over NE NC and SE VA Another night of radiational cooling resulted in temperatures in the upper 40s to lower to mid 50s across most of the area. A few areas across the forecast area dropped into the lower 40s for a brief period. Since sunrise, temperatures have quickly rebounded into the 60s, with a few areas in NE NC hovering around 70 degrees under mostly clear skies. Today will feature high pressure across the region and dry, benign conditions through the afternoon, though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out later this afternoon across the SW counties. Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s (lower to mid 70s in the Eastern Shore) in the forecast. Dew points will start off in the mid 40s NW to low 50s SE and are expected to gradually increase throughout the day. A stationary boundary that is currently located well to our south across the Deep South will gradually start to lift northwards today, bringing increasing atmospheric moisture back to the area by late this afternoon into tonight. At around the same time, a weak shortwave will move across the area which will work in tandem with the increased moisture to help initiate scattered to numerous showers across the local area, with the highest rain chances being realized across the southern portion of our area. Instability will remain south of our area, so thunderstorms are not expected overnight. Without many heavier embedded showers and thunderstorms, rainfall totals will remain below 0.75" for all of the area, with most of the communities NW of Richmond and in the MD counties of the Eastern Shore expected to see around a tenth of an inch of rainfall or less. The timing of the rainfall will generally be after sunset, with the most widespread shower activity expected after midnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s, with near 60 degrees possible in NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. - Cool again Tues with precip chances increasing W to E in the afternoon and into Wed morning Sfc high pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Most of the area looks dry for Monday, but with the lingering boundary nearby to the S, showers could continue in NE NC and SE VA for at least the first half of the day. Cloud cover will gradually erode from N to S as that high pressure makes progress. Temps will be on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/around 70 in the SE/near the coast and low 70s elsewhere. High pressure then becomes positioned just NE of the area going into Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the local area from the SW on Tues afternoon. There is some uncertainty on how fast precip associated with the system can make it into the FA. The overall trend is a bit slower and largely holds off on precip until after 00z Wed, though the piedmont could see a few afternoon showers. Well below normal temps again on Tues with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. The end of the week still looks unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms. There is still a lot of uncertainty in timing, precip amounts, and thunder chances, however, due to disagreement in the global models on what will be the dominating synoptic feature during this period. The GFS focuses more on a warm front and developing low pressure system to the S, where the ECMWF and Canadian never really spin up that low pressure. Instead, the main rainmaker would be a cold front with an UL trough supporting it. The GFS is much slower than the other two and brings the front in on Saturday. Either way, the local area ends up with daily showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the Wed-Fri time period with yet another (lower) chance on Saturday. Wed looks like it could be the last day of below average temps for a little while with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the N/NW to the mid 70s in the SE. Temperatures return to the lower 80s (upper 70s on the Eastern Shore) Thurs-Sat. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Sunday... VFR prevails through this evening as high pressure remains over/near the region and conditions remain dry. Skies will generally be SCT through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon. Cloud cover increases to BKN-OVC this evening as a disturbance passing through aloft. Expecting precip to move into the region overnight with the highest confidence in impacts at ECG, ORF, and PHF. CIGs will steadily drop this evening, but MVFR likely holds off until closer to 12z Mon. Have included a PROB30 group for rain at RIC, with prevailing -RA at ECG/ORF/PHF. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by midday/aftn on Monday and continue through much of Tuesday. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... - A period with elevated NE winds are expected Monday/mainly across the lower Bay, Currituck Sound, and the Ocean S of Cape Charles. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. High pressure NW of the local area is building into the region early this morning, with modest pressure rises noted in area observations. Light winds are becoming N at 10-15 kt as this occurs. By late morning/aftn, winds will tend to drop back off to 5-10 kt as the sfc high becomes centered offshore, allowing a shift to the east across the lower Bay and souther coastal waters. Seas will average ~2 ft with waves 1-2 ft, dropping off to around 1 foot in the aftn. Low pressure passes by S of the local waters Monday, as the next high pressure builds in from the NW. A 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound with an elevated NE wind, though confidence is low and given that this is still about 24 hrs away, have not raised any headlines at this time. The wind diminishes later Monday aftn into early Tuesday as the high settles off the northern mid- Atlantic coast. With the next approaching system, low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley Tue night/Wed, with secondary sfc low developing along the Carolina coast. The models differ with respect to the strength an position of the sfc low, which will affect the strength of this system. At this point, it does appear that SCA conditions are likely sometime late Tuesday night or Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E-SE winds and seas building to 4-6 ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. Winds/seas slowly drop back off and turn more southerly late in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... While there are still some model differences with respect to the strength and position of high pressure to our NE and low pressure tracking along the Carolina coast, there does appear to be a decent chance at seeing at least minor flooding in some portion of the Bay/lower James during the high tide cycles starting Tuesday evening, potentially continuing through Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231871 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 704 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of today as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns Sunday night through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry with increasing clouds and highs in the 70s - Showers expected overnight, especially over NE NC and SE VA Another pleasant day overall is in store as high pressure settles over the region. Aloft, NW flow continues. After a chilly start with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s W of the bay and the low 70s on the Eastern Shore. Skies start out mostly sunny, then clouds increase in coverage this afternoon as a disturbance aloft approaches. Later this evening, a boundary to the S will push N and settle over NC. Aloft, a shortwave will pass over the FA. These features will bring showers overnight. Coverage of showers will likely be highest over NE NC and Southern VA. Although a stray shower along the southern border of the FA cannot be ruled out earlier in the evening, the bulk of the precip looks to be after midnight tonight. It doesn`t look like there will be much in the way of instability, so have not included thunder in the forecast. QPF is 0.25-0.5" in NE NC, up to 0.25" SE of the Richmond in VA, and less than 0.1" elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. - Cool again Tues with precip chances increasing W to E in the afternoon and into Wed morning Sfc high pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Most of the area looks dry for Monday, but with the lingering boundary nearby to the S, showers could continue in NE NC and SE VA for at least the first half of the day. Cloud cover will gradually erode from N to S as that high pressure makes progress. Temps will be on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/around 70 in the SE/near the coast and low 70s elsewhere. High pressure then becomes positioned just NE of the area going into Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the local area from the SW on Tues afternoon. There is some uncertainty on how fast precip associated with the system can make it into the FA. The overall trend is a bit slower and largely holds off on precip until after 00z Wed, though the piedmont could see a few afternoon showers. Well below normal temps again on Tues with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. The end of the week still looks unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms. There is still a lot of uncertainty in timing, precip amounts, and thunder chances, however, due to disagreement in the global models on what will be the dominating synoptic feature during this period. The GFS focuses more on a warm front and developing low pressure system to the S, where the ECMWF and Canadian never really spin up that low pressure. Instead, the main rainmaker would be a cold front with an UL trough supporting it. The GFS is much slower than the other two and brings the front in on Saturday. Either way, the local area ends up with daily showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the Wed-Fri time period with yet another (lower) chance on Saturday. Wed looks like it could be the last day of below average temps for a little while with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the N/NW to the mid 70s in the SE. Temperatures return to the lower 80s (upper 70s on the Eastern Shore) Thurs-Sat. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Sunday... VFR prevails through this evening as high pressure remains over/near the region and conditions remain dry. Skies will generally be SCT through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon. Cloud cover increases to BKN-OVC this evening as a disturbance passing through aloft. Expecting precip to move into the region overnight with the highest confidence in impacts at ECG, ORF, and PHF. CIGs will steadily drop this evening, but MVFR likely holds off until closer to 12z Mon. Have included a PROB30 group for rain at RIC, with prevailing -RA at ECG/ORF/PHF. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by midday/aftn on Monday and continue through much of Tuesday. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... - A period with elevated NE winds are expected Monday/mainly across the lower Bay, Currituck Sound, and the Ocean S of Cape Charles. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. High pressure NW of the local area is building into the region early this morning, with modest pressure rises noted in area observations. Light winds are becoming N at 10-15 kt as this occurs. By late morning/aftn, winds will tend to drop back off to 5-10 kt as the sfc high becomes centered offshore, allowing a shift to the east across the lower Bay and souther coastal waters. Seas will average ~2 ft with waves 1-2 ft, dropping off to around 1 foot in the aftn. Low pressure passes by S of the local waters Monday, as the next high pressure builds in from the NW. A 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound with an elevated NE wind, though confidence is low and given that this is still about 24 hrs away, have not raised any headlines at this time. The wind diminishes later Monday aftn into early Tuesday as the high settles off the northern mid- Atlantic coast. With the next approaching system, low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley Tue night/Wed, with secondary sfc low developing along the Carolina coast. The models differ with respect to the strength an position of the sfc low, which will affect the strength of this system. At this point, it does appear that SCA conditions are likely sometime late Tuesday night or Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E-SE winds and seas building to 4-6 ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. Winds/seas slowly drop back off and turn more southerly late in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... While there are still some model differences with respect to the strength and position of high pressure to our NE and low pressure tracking along the Carolina coast, there does appear to be a decent chance at seeing at least minor flooding in some portion of the Bay/lower James during the high tide cycles starting Tuesday evening, potentially continuing through Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231857 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 356 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of today as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns Sunday night through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry with increasing clouds and highs in the 70s - Showers expected overnight, especially over NE NC and SE VA Another pleasant day overall is in store as high pressure settles over the region. Aloft, NW flow continues. After a chilly start with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s W of the bay and the low 70s on the Eastern Shore. Skies start out mostly sunny, then clouds increase in coverage this afternoon as a disturbance aloft approaches. Later this evening, a boundary to the S will push N and settle over NC. Aloft, a shortwave will pass over the FA. These features will bring showers overnight. Coverage of showers will likely be highest over NE NC and Southern VA. Although a stray shower along the southern border of the FA cannot be ruled out earlier in the evening, the bulk of the precip looks to be after midnight tonight. It doesn`t look like there will be much in the way of instability, so have not included thunder in the forecast. QPF is 0.25-0.5" in NE NC, up to 0.25" SE of the Richmond in VA, and less than 0.1" elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. - Cool again Tues with precip chances increasing W to E in the afternoon and into Wed morning Sfc high pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Most of the area looks dry for Monday, but with the lingering boundary nearby to the S, showers could continue in NE NC and SE VA for at least the first half of the day. Cloud cover will gradually erode from N to S as that high pressure makes progress. Temps will be on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/around 70 in the SE/near the coast and low 70s elsewhere. High pressure then becomes positioned just NE of the area going into Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the local area from the SW on Tues afternoon. There is some uncertainty on how fast precip associated with the system can make it into the FA. The overall trend is a bit slower and largely holds off on precip until after 00z Wed, though the piedmont could see a few afternoon showers. Well below normal temps again on Tues with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. The end of the week still looks unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms. There is still a lot of uncertainty in timing, precip amounts, and thunder chances, however, due to disagreement in the global models on what will be the dominating synoptic feature during this period. The GFS focuses more on a warm front and developing low pressure system to the S, where the ECMWF and Canadian never really spin up that low pressure. Instead, the main rainmaker would be a cold front with an UL trough supporting it. The GFS is much slower than the other two and brings the front in on Saturday. Either way, the local area ends up with daily showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the Wed-Fri time period with yet another (lower) chance on Saturday. Wed looks like it could be the last day of below average temps for a little while with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the N/NW to the mid 70s in the SE. Temperatures return to the lower 80s (upper 70s on the Eastern Shore) Thurs-Sat. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... VFR prevails through this evening as high pressure remains over/near the region and conditions remain dry. Skies will generally be SCT through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon. Cloud cover increases to BKN-OVC this evening as high pressure is pushed N by a slowly northward advancing front to the S and a disturbance passing through aloft. Expecting precip to move into the region overnight with the highest confidence in impacts at ECG, ORF, and PHF. CIGs will steadily drop this evening, but MVFR likely holds off until closer to 12z Mon, with the exception of ECG which looks to drop earlier. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by midday/aftn on Monday and continue through much of Tuesday. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... - A period with elevated NE winds are expected Monday/mainly across the lower Bay, Currituck Sound, and the Ocean S of Cape Charles. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. High pressure NW of the local area is building into the region early this morning, with modest pressure rises noted in area observations. Light winds are becoming N at 10-15 kt as this occurs. By late morning/aftn, winds will tend to drop back off to 5-10 kt as the sfc high becomes centered offshore, allowing a shift to the east across the lower Bay and souther coastal waters. Seas will average ~2 ft with waves 1-2 ft, dropping off to around 1 foot in the aftn. Low pressure passes by S of the local waters Monday, as the next high pressure builds in from the NW. A 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the lower Bay, lower James, and Currituck sound with an elevated NE wind, though confidence is low and given that this is still about 24 hrs away, have not raised any headlines at this time. The wind diminishes later Monday aftn into early Tuesday as the high settles off the northern mid- Atlantic coast. With the next approaching system, low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley Tue night/Wed, with secondary sfc low developing along the Carolina coast. The models differ with respect to the strength an position of the sfc low, which will affect the strength of this system. At this point, it does appear that SCA conditions are likely sometime late Tuesday night or Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E-SE winds and seas building to 4-6 ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. Winds/seas slowly drop back off and turn more southerly late in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... While there are still some model differences with respect to the strength and position of high pressure to our NE and low pressure tracking along the Carolina coast, there does appear to be a decent chance at seeing at least minor flooding in some portion of the Bay/lower James during the high tide cycles starting Tuesday evening, potentially continuing through Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231850 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 AM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of today as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns Sunday night through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry with increasing clouds and highs in the 70s - Showers expected overnight, especially over NE NC and SE VA Another pleasant day overall is in store as high pressure settles over the region. Aloft, NW flow continues. After a chilly start with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s W of the bay and the low 70s on the Eastern Shore. Skies start out mostly sunny, then clouds increase in coverage this afternoon as a disturbance aloft approaches. Later this evening, a boundary to the S will push N and settle over NC. Aloft, a shortwave will pass over the FA. These features will bring showers overnight. Coverage of showers will likely be highest over NE NC and Southern VA. Although a stray shower along the southern border of the FA cannot be ruled out earlier in the evening, the bulk of the precip looks to be after midnight tonight. It doesn`t look like there will be much in the way of instability, so have not included thunder in the forecast. QPF is 0.25-0.5" in NE NC, up to 0.25" SE of the Richmond in VA, and less than 0.1" elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. - Cool again Tues with precip chances increasing W to E in the afternoon and into Wed morning Sfc high pressure builds back into the region on Monday. Most of the area looks dry for Monday, but with the lingering boundary nearby to the S, showers could continue in NE NC and SE VA for at least the first half of the day. Cloud cover will gradually erode from N to S as that high pressure makes progress. Temps will be on the cool side with highs in the upper 60s/around 70 in the SE/near the coast and low 70s elsewhere. High pressure then becomes positioned just NE of the area going into Tuesday. A frontal system approaches the local area from the SW on Tues afternoon. There is some uncertainty on how fast precip associated with the system can make it into the FA. The overall trend is a bit slower and largely holds off on precip until after 00z Wed, though the piedmont could see a few afternoon showers. Well below normal temps again on Tues with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. The end of the week still looks unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms. There is still a lot of uncertainty in timing, precip amounts, and thunder chances, however, due to disagreement in the global models on what will be the dominating synoptic feature during this period. The GFS focuses more on a warm front and developing low pressure system to the S, where the ECMWF and Canadian never really spin up that low pressure. Instead, the main rainmaker would be a cold front with an UL trough supporting it. The GFS is much slower than the other two and brings the front in on Saturday. Either way, the local area ends up with daily showers and afternoon thunderstorms in the Wed-Fri time period with yet another (lower) chance on Saturday. Wed looks like it could be the last day of below average temps for a little while with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the N/NW to the mid 70s in the SE. Temperatures return to the lower 80s (upper 70s on the Eastern Shore) Thurs-Sat. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... VFR prevails through this evening as high pressure remains over/near the region and conditions remain dry. Skies will generally be SCT through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon. Cloud cover increases to BKN-OVC this evening as high pressure is pushed N by a slowly northward advancing front to the S and a disturbance passing through aloft. Expecting precip to move into the region overnight with the highest confidence in impacts at ECG, ORF, and PHF. CIGs will steadily drop this evening, but MVFR likely holds off until closer to 12z Mon, with the exception of ECG which looks to drop earlier. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by midday/aftn on Monday and continue through much of Tuesday. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday... - Elevated NE winds are expected Monday. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. Weak high pressure is building in from the W this aftn. The wind is primarily W to NW 5-10kt. Seas are mainly 2-3ft, with waves approximately 2ft in the Ches. Bay. A weak cold front drops across the coast tonight with the wind becoming N to NNE later tonight into early Sunday morning, but remaining less than 15kt. Low pressure passes by S of the local waters Monday, as high pressure builds in from the NW. A 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the lower Bay with an elevated NE wind, though confidence is low. The wind diminishes Monday night/early Tuesday as the high settles off the northern mid-Atlantic coast. with the next approaching system mid- week. Low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley or lower Lakes Tue night/Wed, with secondary sfc low developing along the SE US coast. SCA conditions are likely by Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E-SE winds and seas building to 4-6 ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231846 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 25.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 129 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures and dry weather continue through most of Sunday as high pressure remains in place. An unsettled weather pattern returns Sunday night through the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and cool weather continues with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Only very minor changes were made with the evening update and the forecast remains on track with another cool night in store. Previous Discussion as of 314 PM EDT... GOES Visible is depicting partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. The cloud cover is a mix of low/mid-level cumulus and upper level cirrus moving in from the NW. Temperatures have increased into the lower to mid 70s, which is still a few degrees cooler than normal but very pleasant for late May especially when combined with dew points in the low to mid 40s. At the surface, high pressure resides across the region and a low pressure system is located northeast of Maine. The gradient between these two features has led to occasional gusty NW winds throughout the day. The cold front that moved through a few days ago is well to our south. The drier airmass with PW values of 0.60" of less that moved in behind the front is residing across the region, which has lead to a dry day. Aloft, an expansive upper low remains across the Northeast. With cloud cover expected to diminish some overnight and winds diminishing over land after sunset, another round of radiational cooling is possible tonight. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s closer to the coast, so chilly night for late May is expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry and pleasant conditions through Sunday afternoon, with increasing clouds and chances for showers Sunday night. - Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon. Sunday morning will feature high pressure and generally dry, benign conditions. Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s (mid to upper 70s in SE VA/NE NC) in the forecast. A stationary boundary that is currently located well to our south with gradually start to lift northwards Sunday which will bring higher atmospheric moisture back to the area by Sunday night. At around the same time, a weak shortwave will move across the area which will work in tandem with the increased moisture to help initiate scattered to numerous showers across the local area, with the highest rain chances being realized across the southern portion of our area. Instability will remain south of our area, so this event will likely not produce much in the way of thunder. Without many heavier embedded showers and thunderstorms, rainfall totals will remain below 0.75" for all of the area, with most of the communities NW of Richmond and in the MD counties of the Eastern Shore expected to see around a tenth of an inch of rainfall or less. Most of the rain is forecast to fall overnight Sunday night and Monday morning, so Monday afternoon will see a reprieve from rainfall as high pressure builds back in. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems approach the region. Drier conditions will extend into Tuesday morning. Thereafter, high pressure will shift offshore and rain chances will start to increase from west to east ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. With increased cloud cover and rain starting across the Piedmont during peak heating hours, temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s during the day on Tuesday. Similar to Sunday night, instability will generally remain south and west of the area, so thunder chances on Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning will remain low as of now. Have kept slight chance thunder in the forecast for Wed/Wed. night, as we cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder. There remains some disagreement between models as to how fast the low moves offshore. Showers could linger for a longer period of time if a slower motion occurs, while conditions could briefly dry out Thursday with a faster motion. As of now, have kept generally slight chance to low end chance PoPs Thursday through the weekend to account for this uncertainty, and for the possibility of another cold frontal passage by the end of the week. Temperatures will finally start to moderate and return back to near normal Thursday and Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s overnight. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... VFR prevails through this evening as high pressure remains over/near the region and conditions remain dry. Skies will generally be SCT through the rest of the morning and to start the afternoon. Cloud cover increases to BKN-OVC this evening as high pressure is pushed N by a slowly northward advancing front to the S and a disturbance passing through aloft. Expecting precip to move into the region overnight with the highest confidence in impacts at ECG, ORF, and PHF. CIGs will steadily drop this evening, but MVFR likely holds off until closer to 12z Mon, with the exception of ECG which looks to drop earlier. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions return by midday/aftn on Monday and continue through much of Tuesday. Rain and degraded flight conditions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday... - Elevated NE winds are expected Monday. - SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday with elevated E-SE winds. Weak high pressure is building in from the W this aftn. The wind is primarily W to NW 5-10kt. Seas are mainly 2-3ft, with waves approximately 2ft in the Ches. Bay. A weak cold front drops across the coast tonight with the wind becoming N to NNE later tonight into early Sunday morning, but remaining less than 15kt. Low pressure passes by S of the local waters Monday, as high pressure builds in from the NW. A 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions are possible across the lower Bay with an elevated NE wind, though confidence is low. The wind diminishes Monday night/early Tuesday as the high settles off the northern mid-Atlantic coast. with the next approaching system mid- week. Low pressure tracks ENE through the OH Valley or lower Lakes Tue night/Wed, with secondary sfc low developing along the SE US coast. SCA conditions are likely by Wed for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E-SE winds and seas building to 4-6 ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
