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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1181057 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear out through the evening - Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible across the entire forecast area High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181047 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 PM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Foggy conditions in the piedmont are quickly improving with latest obs showing visibilities over a mile. Fog continues to scour out and should be gone within the next hour or so. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181033 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1003 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Foggy conditions in the piedmont are quickly improving with latest obs showing visibilities over a mile. Fog continues to scour out and should be gone within the next hour or so. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds continues to affect the coastal terminals this morning w/ IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs. Further inland, rather widespread fog is noted. As of 11z, it is most widespread W of RIC and in the Piedmont. Expect RIC to fluctuate some this morning w/ occasional decreases in VSBY to IFR or LIFR. The fog should clear shortly near or just before 9 AM/13z. IFR or MVFR CIGs continue at the coast through at least mid- morning. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast through most of today. For tonight, additional low stratus or fog is expected w/ widespread flight restrictions to IFR- LIFR. Winds become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Winds turn light tonight. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181014 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through mid morning. - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Dense fog continues over portions of the Piedmont and a dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 9 AM. Fog should scour out shortly after. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds continues to affect the coastal terminals this morning w/ IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs. Further inland, rather widespread fog is noted. As of 11z, it is most widespread W of RIC and in the Piedmont. Expect RIC to fluctuate some this morning w/ occasional decreases in VSBY to IFR or LIFR. The fog should clear shortly near or just before 9 AM/13z. IFR or MVFR CIGs continue at the coast through at least mid- morning. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast through most of today. For tonight, additional low stratus or fog is expected w/ widespread flight restrictions to IFR- LIFR. Winds become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Winds turn light tonight. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180992 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through sunrise this morning. - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Weak flow inland and moist low-levels is allowing fog to develop and expand. Nighttime microphysics channels and obs showing the densest fog as of 06z/2 AM in the I-95 corridor. This should expand westward and grow even more widespread closer to sunrise. Have issued a broad SPS for now, but may end up needing a dense fog advisory at some point. Most guidance scours the fog out by 8-9 AM and this seems reasonable. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY. However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1180990 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through sunrise this morning. - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Weak flow inland and moist low-levels is allowing fog to develop and expand. Nighttime microphysics channels and obs showing the densest fog as of 06z/2 AM in the I-95 corridor. This should expand westward and grow even more widespread closer to sunrise. Have issued a broad SPS for now, but may end up needing a dense fog advisory at some point. Most guidance scours the fog out by 8-9 AM and this seems reasonable. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY. However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week. A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay). These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal. Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday. Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday.... Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days. With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1180981 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight. - Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight. Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland. - A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south. Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms -Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore. A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY. However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week. A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay). These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal. Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday. Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday.... Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days. With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1180962 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 818 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight. - Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight. Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland. - A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south. Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms -Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore. A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... Most areas have improved to VFR this evening as some drier air moves in aloft. MVFR stratus continues for the areas around ORF and ECG. Will maintain prevailing MVFR in these areas despite some guidance showing a short period where scattering out is possible. Winds are generally onshore (NE-E-SE) 5-10 kt but are expected to become light and variable away from the coast by mid evening. Guidance shows the potential for widespread fog in the Piedmont and extensive IFR CIGs near the coast tonight. RIC will be tricky on which will dominate but IFR looks likely either way. Fog and stratus will mix out inland on Monday morning but MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger near the coast. Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week. A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay). These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal. Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday. Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday.... Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days. With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658. && $$ |
