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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #1237788 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 12.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day. The potential for diurnal thunderstorms will continue early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Hot and humid inland this afternoon with isolated storms possible, especially west of I-95. - Not as warm along the coast behind a weak back door front. Guidance has backed off on the potential for dense fog early this morning but some spots may see visibility drop below 1/2 mile toward sunrise before mixing out. A weak front is forecast to move slowly inland this morning into the afternoon. Areas that remain to the west of the boundary will warm into the low/mid 90s with dew points in the low/mid 70s, resulting in afternoon heat indices 100-104. Slightly cooler east of the front with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s near the coast. The front will serve as weak focus for showers and storms by this afternoon. Forecast soundings show ample instability in the hot/humid airmass but very weak flow aloft should keep storms of the pulse variety. Brief strong wind gusts are the main threat from water-loaded downdrafts this afternoon and early evening. SPC has included the western tier of counties in a Marginal Risk of severe. Precipitable water hovers near 2" along and to the west of the front, so locally heavy rainfall and associated flash flood potential will be a concern with slow-moving storms this afternoon. WPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. Showers and storms may linger into the evening across the western half of the area but should come to an end by midnight or so. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 70s. Some fog and low stratus are possible, especially in areas that see rainfall during the afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Slightly cooler Sunday with diurnal convection expected to west of the weak front that lingers over the eastern third of the area. - Additional showers and storms are possible Monday as a front approaches from the NW. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected across the western half of the area on Sunday as a prefrontal trough sharpens along the higher terrain to the west. Shear will be modestly higher Sunday vs today with localized wet microbursts the main severe weather threat. SPC has included areas generally along and west of I- 95 in a marginal severe risk. Deep moisture lingers over the area and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the convection Sunday afternoon and evening. WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across most of the region with a Slight Risk just clipping our NW Piedmont counties. Increased cloud cover and showers will help to keep temperatures in check with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Cooler along the coast Sunday with mid and upper 80s in areas that remain to the east of the diffuse frontal boundary. Showers and storms likely linger into the overnight but should lose some punch as the boundary layer cools considerably by late evening. A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday with continued shower and storm chances. Widespread clouds and precip should keep a lid on the severe threat Monday but a few locally strong wind gusts are possible. Potential for flash flooding will be the primary concern on Monday, especially in areas that see appreciable rainfall on Sunday. WPC has the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. High temps Monday generally in the upper 80s. Lingering showers and storms will become confined toward the coast Monday night with temps in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Unsettled pattern continues into next week with seasonably warm and humid conditions and mainly diurnal shower and storm chances. Afternoon and evening showers and storms continue well into next week with the aforementioned cold front stalling near/just west of the local area. Plenty of instability should be in place across the region next week but the main belt of stronger flow aloft will be displaced well to the north. Strong wind gusts and localized flooding will continue to be a threat each afternoon and evening. Temperatures top out in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s. Warmer conditions are expected by late week with highs creeping back into the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices potentially rise back toward Heat Advisory criteria (105+) Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail early this morning at the main terminals, with some MVFR/IFR noted across SW. Guidance has been quite variable with respect to IFR potential toward sunrise. Recent satellite imagery and hi-res guidance lean toward MVFR conditions at SBY, RIC, PHF, and ORF between 9-12z this morning. Confidence is highest at SBY and PHF so have prevailing MVFR during this period with TEMPO groups at ORF and RIC. ECG may see a brief dip into MVFR just after sunrise but confidence in sustained MVFR is low. Light and variable winds this morning become SE 5-10 kt this afternoon. Some CU expected after mid morning with bases around 4000 ft. Some showers and isolated storms are possible for inland terminals during the afternoon and evening but very low confidence in coverage and timing preclude a specific mention in the forecast. Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are expected through the weekend and into early next week, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... As of 320 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend and continue through the middle of next week as high pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast. The wind is mainly S 5-10kt early this morning. A weak front will push across the coast later this morning resulting in a wind shift to NE 5-10kt. By this aftn into this evening, the wind will become ESE and mainly 5-10kt, with the exception of 10-12kt in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to be SE 5-10kt Sunday with a slight diurnal increase during the late aftn/early evening hours, and then mainly S to SW 5-10kt early next week, before potentially becoming SW 10-15kt later Wednesday. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft this weekend through the middle of next week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Aftn/evening showers/tstms will have limited coverage today and Sunday, with potentially higher chances by Monday aftn/evening, and then less coverage toward the middle of next week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts and frequent lighting. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1237782 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 12.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 207 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day. The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 950 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Lows in the 70s tonight with locally dense fog in spots. Bermuda high pressure remains well offshore this evening. A stationary and cold front are located well to our N and NW, producing widespread tstms near the Great Lakes region. A weak ridge has set up over the eastern CONUS aloft. Evening radar shows most of the isolated showers/storm activity has diminished with the loss of heating. Expecting a dry night under a mostly clear sky. However, areas of fog or stratus are likely to develop offshore and move gradually inland onto the Eastern Shore later tonight. Some of the guidance shows dense fog, but confidence in this is rather low. Elsewhere, patchy fog could develop given the weak flow and moist low levels. Will monitor through the night. Overnight lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: The typical summer pattern of diurnal afternoon/evening showers and storms will continue this weekend as upper height rises continue over the area. A weak backdoor front will attempt to make its way south towards the MD Eastern Shore, but will likely lose its forcing before making it to the area. Temperatures are still expected to be a few degrees cooler, regardless. As for the rest of the area, Saturday will be slightly warmer with less cloud coverage than Sunday and Monday. Heat indices on Saturday will reach 100-104F in some places, but heat headlines are not expected at this time. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible each afternoon/evening (further inland and west of the backdoor front on Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front approaches the region Sunday/Monday, which increases PoPs for Monday afternoon/evening. Localized flooding cannot be ruled out any day as the atmosphere remains moist and localized rainfall totals of 1-3" is possible each day. With a little bit better lifting mechanism on Sunday, isolated damaging winds are also a low-end threat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Staying seasonably warm and humid for much of next week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting. A more seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue from the early to middle part of the week. Behind the weak cold front, upper ridging will build back into the area from Tue-Thu, although isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms are possible each day. Highs next week will be around seasonal averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F). && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail early this morning at the main terminals, with some MVFR/IFR noted across SW. Guidance has been quite variable with respect to IFR potential toward sunrise. Recent satellite imagery and hi-res guidance lean toward MVFR conditions at SBY, RIC, PHF, and ORF between 9-12z this morning. Confidence is highest at SBY and PHF so have prevailing MVFR during this period with TEMPO groups at ORF and RIC. ECG may see a brief dip into MVFR just after sunrise but confidence in sustained MVFR is low. Light and variable winds this morning become SE 5-10 kt this afternoon. Some CU expected after mid morning with bases around 4000 ft. Some showers and isolated storms are possible for inland terminals during the afternoon and evening but very low confidence in coverage and timing preclude a specific mention in the forecast. Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are expected through the weekend and into early next week, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening storms. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to persist tonight through this weekend, and likely into next week as well. High pressure remains situated well offshore and a weak trough is located along/just east of the Blue Ridge. Winds are generally light and variable over the waters this afternoon. The surface trough translates offshore this weekend with flow becoming ENE or E Saturday and Sunday. Southerly flow returns next week. Waves in the Ches Bay will average 1-2 ft through the period with seas mainly 1-3 ft. Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms will be more isolated this evening into the weekend as the upper trough axis moves into the western Atlantic. However, any storms that do manage to form will continue to pose localized threats of gusty winds and frequent lightning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
