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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1232776 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. This boundary will also lead to the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the river and south into Mexico through this afternoon. By this evening rain chances will taper off as the boundary moves north with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday, topping out between 100 and 105 degrees for much of the CWA. Overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will fall into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Mid-level ridge should continue to be the major influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period. This will mean that outside of a few rogue showers, that rain chances will be very limited. Meanwhile, at the surface, the southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the period as well allowing for more warm moist air to move into the area during the period. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s for the long term forecast period. The high temperatures are expected to be generally in the 90s for the area. However parts of Zapata and Starr counties could get into the triple digits during the period. While there are pockets of Major (level 3 out of 4) for heat risk during the period, the heat indices are expected to remain around 105-108, which is below the criteria for Heat Advisory. However, a Special Weather Statement for heat is not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light to moderate winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Now through Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Seas of around 2 feet are expected with 5 to 6 second periods. Monday through Next Saturday...A slightly elevated pressure gradient between low pressure in the Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will result in moderate southeasterly winds through next Saturday and thus in turn build the seas. This will result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution for parts of the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 92 78 91 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 92 75 93 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 77 96 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 79 86 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1232754 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 119 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. This boundary will also lead to the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the river and south into Mexico through this afternoon. By this evening rain chances will taper off as the boundary moves north with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday, topping out between 100 and 105 degrees for much of the CWA. Overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will fall into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Mid-level ridge should continue to be the major influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period. This will mean that outside of a few rogue showers, that rain chances will be very limited. Meanwhile, at the surface, the southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the period as well allowing for more warm moist air to move into the area during the period. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s for the long term forecast period. The high temperatures are expected to be generally in the 90s for the area. However parts of Zapata and Starr counties could get into the triple digits during the period. While there are pockets of Major (level 3 out of 4) for heat risk during the period, the heat indices are expected to remain around 105-108, which is below the criteria for Heat Advisory. However, a Special Weather Statement for heat is not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this afternoon though confidence is too low to include in the current TAF forecast. North To northeasterly winds will become more east- southeasterly through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Now through Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Seas of around 2 feet are expected with 5 to 6 second periods. Monday through Next Saturday...A slightly elevated pressure gradient between low pressure in the Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will result in moderate southeasterly winds through next Saturday and thus in turn build the seas. This will result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution for parts of the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 92 78 91 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 92 75 93 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 77 96 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 79 86 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232701 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 31.May.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 324 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A frontal boundary is currently stalled over the CWA today, which will bring cooler temperatures, north-northeasterly winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to Deep South Texas today. Current NBM and CAM guidance has downtrended precipitation chances over previous guidance (down from around 40% to 20-30%), with some models hinting that the front could move south of the CWA into Mexico before it begins to lift out of the area overnight. If the front stays over Deep South Texas, precipitation is more likely to occur as the boundary will provide an area of convergence. However, if the stalled front pushes slightly south as some guidance suggests, this will decrease precipitation chances significantly because the area of convergence will be further to the south. While there is some uncertainty as to which scenario will occur, if precipitation does occur, the greatest chances appear to be closest to the coast, where sea breeze interactions may also provide a source of lift. Tonight, the front is expected to begin lifting out of the area, which will decrease precipitation chances to around 10 percent. Tomorrow, little-to-no precipitation is expected to occur over Deep South Texas as south-southeasterly flow and upper level ridging returns to the area. Temperatures are expected to be below normal today and warm closer to normal tomorrow. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 90s. Low temperatures are expected to get down into the mid 70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy today and tonight, clearing to partly cloudy tomorrow. Winds will be north- northeasterly today, and gradually veer to a southerly direction tonight, before backing southeasterly tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The subtropical ridge builds into early next week, cutting the rain chances and bringing back some heat into early June. A series of potent disturbances swing through the Plains, maintaining breezy southeasterly winds each afternoon along the lower Texas coast. POPs remain below 10 to 15 percent all week. Heat Risk gradually increases from minor to moderate early in the week and generally moderate by late week, with pockets of major heat risk along the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are currently being experienced at all airports. Due to incoming cloud cover from a stalled front, conditions could briefly slip to MVFR overnight (around 12-13z), particularly at BRO. Winds are expected to be light to moderate and will turn northeasterly throughout the night (by 14z). && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Today through Tomorrow...Marine conditions are expected to be favorable with light to moderate winds and calm seas with low wave heights. Winds will start out northeasterly today and gradually shift to a south-southeasterly direction tonight and tomorrow. Sunday Night through Friday...Low pressure in the Plains and high pressure across the Gulf will maintain breezy southeasterly winds through the forecast period. This will gradually build seas through the week and may approach Small Craft Caution conditions at times, especially on the bay each afternoon due to winds and offshore by late week, with occasionally elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 77 93 78 / 30 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 91 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 0 MCALLEN 93 77 96 78 / 30 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 86 79 / 20 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 90 77 / 20 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
