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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1253304 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 PM 01.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1132 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 * A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 00z tomorrow evening due to elevated winds and wave heights * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist through at least Tuesday. * Temperatures are expected to remain cool through tomorrow then gradually warm mid-week before another cold front arrives Thursday into Friday. This will increase rain chances later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A coastal low has developed in the wake of a strong cold front that passed through the region over the weekend. This has kept skies cloudy, and due to the close proximity of the coastal low to the shore, stronger cold air advection due to higher northerly winds is continuing to funnel colder air into the region. The NAM is capturing this best when comparing to current observations over both land and water, so the NAM was utilized heavily in the immediate forecast for tonight. Low temperatures tonight should be in the upper 40s with continued cloudy skies. For tomorrow, models are not consistent on how close the coastal low is going to stay within our area. If it stays close to the shore, skies will stay cloudier (limiting daytime heating) and the pressure gradient will remain tighter and winds will be stronger, resulting in continued CAA and cooler temps. However, if it moves further away from our area, the pressure gradient could relax and skies would clear a little bit more, resulting in slight gradual warming. The NAM is keeping temperatures cooler, whereas other guidance (including the NBM) has Deep South Texas warming a bit quicker, so to account for the uncertainty of the path of the coastal low the NAM was blended with the NBM for tomorrow and tomorrow night`s forecast. High temperatures tomorrow should reach the upper 50s/lower 60s, with lows cooling to the lower 50s with a few ares in the Northern and Western Ranchlands still experiencing temperatures in the upper 40s. The winds are expected to veer to a southerly direction ahead of another approaching shortwave by Wednesday, and skies should become much clearer. This will allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to- upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday, before the next cold front comes through with the next system. This next cold front also has the potential to be strong like the previous front. Current thinking is that Friday`s highs will be in the mid-60s, but this surge of colder air could trend colder as additional guidance comes in, especially as snowpack becomes more established over the northern US. Conditions should overall be dry through midweek, until the next shortwave trough comes through Thursday into Friday, which will increase rain chances throughout Deep South Texas. Chances will be low to moderate (30-40%) for the Western Ranchlands, with moderate (40-60%) chances for areas east of I-69C. Rain chances will linger but remain low (20-30%) through Friday. Rip current risk remains high through tomorrow due to elevated winds and seas, creating hazardous surf conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 MVFR conditions are being observed at area airports due to lower ceilings, with MFE having intermittent periods of IFR that are expected to improve to MVFR within the next few hours. Conditions should stay MVFR throughout the TAF period with overcast skies and light to moderate northerly winds && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 00z tomorrow evening due to winds offshore and wave heights remaining elevated. Once conditions do get below Small Craft Advisory criteria, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will persist. Conditions could briefly improve later on Tuesday into Wednesday, but another frontal system Thursday into Friday will likely warrant more Small Craft Advisories later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 51 59 52 73 / 0 0 0 20 HARLINGEN 48 58 51 71 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 49 59 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 61 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 57 64 54 76 / 40 20 0 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 52 61 56 74 / 20 0 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1253297 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 549 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 * Roller-coaster temperature pattern expected to take place through next weekend. * Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday through Friday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist through at least Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Progressive/changeable weather pattern featuring multiple temperature swings, and another cool front that will bring more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday is expected to take place during the forecast period or through next Monday. Mainly cloudy skies will dominate the week ahead. Through tonight, blustery northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph will help to usher in the coldest airmass of the season (since last February). Despite an abundance of cloud cover in place to help with insolation, a full cold air advection regime in place over the region will result in overnight low temperatures falling into the 40s most places (50s along mid to lower valley and the coast). Latest radar scans show most of the rain showers over the Gulf Waters, but through tonight, there could be some lingering vicinity showers/sprinkles around, especially areas near the coast. Mist is also possible to due to residual low level moisture underneath an inversion. Again, this is especially true for areas near the coast. Otherwise, expect for a cool, rain-free, blustery night ahead. Monday through Tuesday night, it still will remain cool though there will be a gradual moderation in temperatures. On Monday daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s most places. On Tuesday, daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 60s. Monday night, overnight lows will fall into the 40s across much of Deep South Texas (50s along the RGV). Tuesday night, lows will be in the 50s most places. There could be a few lingering sprinkles/showers around on Monday, but most areas will remain rain- free under mostly cloudy skies. Warmer than normal temperatures arrive on Wednesday and continue into Thursday as a return flow develops out of the south-southeast. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the lower 80s along the RGV and 70s across the Northern Ranchlands. Wednesday night, overnight lows will be in the 60s most places (lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Thursday night into Friday, forecast models/ensembles are depicting another cool front that is set to sweep through Deep South Texas and the RGV. Ahead of the cool fropa, some overrunning combined with increased sfc convergence and instability will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas and the RGV Thursday into Thursday night. Coverage is expected to be more widespread and showers/thunderstorms more robust than what occurred earlier today. Lingering showers are possible on Friday through Friday night behind the cool fropa. Currently , we have low to medium (20-60%) chance PoPs Thursday-Thursday night with the higher probabilities closer to the coast. Even higher (70-80%) PoPs are expected over the Gulf Waters. Friday-Friday night, we have low to medium (20-40%) chance PoPs for lingering, post-frontal showers with the highest chances again being near the coast. Daytime highs on Friday is progged to be in the 60s most places (lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Temperatures moderate/warm once again Saturday and Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s most places and on Tuesday 80s most places. By Monday, highs are expected to be in the 70s most places. Thursday night through Monday night, lows will be in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the RGV Saturday night through Monday night). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 MVFR conditions prevail for much of the 12Z TAF cycle at all sites under a blanket of BKN to OVC stratus at 010-020. North- northwesterly winds will gradually diminish early Monday to around 10kts. Light precip moving north this morning and again late tonight may bring brief, light rain or drizzle to all sites, with highest chances (30%) at BRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended to noon CST Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will then take place on Monday. However, another Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, marine conditons are expected to improve with light to moderate seas and light to moderate winds and seas persisting through Thursday. A cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday and that could result in more adverse marine conditions developing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 60 53 61 58 / 20 30 20 10 HARLINGEN 58 49 61 54 / 20 20 10 0 MCALLEN 59 51 61 57 / 20 20 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 60 50 63 53 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 60 64 64 / 30 40 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 53 62 58 / 30 30 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1253259 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 * Roller-coaster temperature pattern expected to take place through next weekend. * Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday through Friday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist through at least Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Progressive/changeable weather pattern featuring multiple temperature swings, and another cool front that will bring more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday is expected to take place during the forecast period or through next Monday. Mainly cloudy skies will dominate the week ahead. Through tonight, blustery northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph will help to usher in the coldest airmass of the season (since last February). Despite an abundance of cloud cover in place to help with insolation, a full cold air advection regime in place over the region will result in overnight low temperatures falling into the 40s most places (50s along mid to lower valley and the coast). Latest radar scans show most of the rain showers over the Gulf Waters, but through tonight, there could be some lingering vicinity showers/sprinkles around, especially areas near the coast. Mist is also possible to due to residual low level moisture underneath an inversion. Again, this is especially true for areas near the coast. Otherwise, expect for a cool, rain-free, blustery night ahead. Monday through Tuesday night, it still will remain cool though there will be a gradual moderation in temperatures. On Monday daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s most places. On Tuesday, daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 60s. Monday night, overnight lows will fall into the 40s across much of Deep South Texas (50s along the RGV). Tuesday night, lows will be in the 50s most places. There could be a few lingering sprinkles/showers around on Monday, but most areas will remain rain- free under mostly cloudy skies. Warmer than normal temperatures arrive on Wednesday and continue into Thursday as a return flow develops out of the south-southeast. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the lower 80s along the RGV and 70s across the Northern Ranchlands. Wednesday night, overnight lows will be in the 60s most places (lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Thursday night into Friday, forecast models/ensembles are depicting another cool front that is set to sweep through Deep South Texas and the RGV. Ahead of the cool fropa, some overrunning combined with increased sfc convergence and instability will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas and the RGV Thursday into Thursday night. Coverage is expected to be more widespread and showers/thunderstorms more robust than what occurred earlier today. Lingering showers are possible on Friday through Friday night behind the cool fropa. Currently , we have low to medium (20-60%) chance PoPs Thursday-Thursday night with the higher probabilities closer to the coast. Even higher (70-80%) PoPs are expected over the Gulf Waters. Friday-Friday night, we have low to medium (20-40%) chance PoPs for lingering, post-frontal showers with the highest chances again being near the coast. Daytime highs on Friday is progged to be in the 60s most places (lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Temperatures moderate/warm once again Saturday and Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s most places and on Tuesday 80s most places. By Monday, highs are expected to be in the 70s most places. Thursday night through Monday night, lows will be in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the RGV Saturday night through Monday night). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Through 06z Tuesday....Latest sfc, satellite, and radar observations depicted an OVC deck of MVFR-IFR stratus clouds with ceilings ranging between 700-2,300 feet AGL with unrestricted visibilities, and VCSH nearby. MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period with cloud coverage and ceilings improving marginally towards the end of the TAF period. VCSH are expected to persist through through tonight before waning on Monday. Blustery north-northwest winds are expected to prevail through tonight with speeds between 10-15 kts or so and gusts between 20-25 kts or so. On Monday, northwest winds will weaken with speeds between 5-12 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended to noon CST Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will then take place on Monday. However, another Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, marine conditons are expected to improve with light to moderate seas and light to moderate winds and seas persisting through Thursday. A cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday and that could result in more adverse marine conditions developing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 52 60 53 / 70 50 20 30 HARLINGEN 75 49 58 49 / 50 40 20 20 MCALLEN 75 51 59 51 / 30 30 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 48 60 50 / 10 40 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 58 64 60 / 80 70 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 51 60 53 / 70 50 30 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
