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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1209204 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 PM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula. A northwest-to-southeast flow associated with the mid- level high will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure easing towards the east will allow an onshore flow to redevelop, persist, and intensify. Overnight low and daytime high temperatures will gradually warm, with values at well above normal levels for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The long term forecast period will be a pleasant and mostly stable period along with being rain free as well. With a mid-level ridge being the main influence for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period and even some zonal flow aloft, more aloft dry air is expected to move into the area. Thus, the dry and stable air aloft will greatly hinder any chance of rain development for the long term forecast period. Also with the influence of the mid-level ridge in place, the area will see a summer-like weather pattern resulting in higher than normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 60s through the period. Meanwhile, on the surface, southeasterly to southerly winds are expected to persist through the period each day. While the winds are expected to be generally light each day, however by Sunday the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as a low pressure system interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. Around mid to late week, a upper-level trough will push across the Southeast and bring a front towards the area. The current trend in the models still shows a large difference of in timing for the front. Currently the GFS brings the front in sooner and the ECMWF is much later. However, based on the current model analysis the front does not seem to have much of an impact on the temperatures in the long term forecast period. Further shifts will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see how the model trends continue to evolve with this event along with any changes for the potential impacts from this cold front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites as the region remains under the influence of surface high pressure. Expect light and variable winds generally below 5-10 knots, gradually shifting to the southeast tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported southwest winds around 2 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. Generally light winds and low seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Saturday Night through Thursday...Mostly favorable conditions with light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and low to moderate seas. The main exceptions to this pattern will be on Sunday and Thursday as both days the pressure gradient is expected to tighten, which will result in stronger southeasterly winds that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 60 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 55 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 83 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 69 78 73 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 60 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209182 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 529 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula. A northwest-to-southeast flow associated with the mid- level high will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure easing towards the east will allow an onshore flow to redevelop, persist, and intensify. Overnight low and daytime high temperatures will gradually warm, with values at well above normal levels for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The long term forecast period will be a pleasant and mostly stable period along with being rain free as well. With a mid-level ridge being the main influence for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period and even some zonal flow aloft, more aloft dry air is expected to move into the area. Thus, the dry and stable air aloft will greatly hinder any chance of rain development for the long term forecast period. Also with the influence of the mid-level ridge in place, the area will see a summer-like weather pattern resulting in higher than normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 60s through the period. Meanwhile, on the surface, southeasterly to southerly winds are expected to persist through the period each day. While the winds are expected to be generally light each day, however by Sunday the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as a low pressure system interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. Around mid to late week, a upper-level trough will push across the Southeast and bring a front towards the area. The current trend in the models still shows a large difference of in timing for the front. Currently the GFS brings the front in sooner and the ECMWF is much later. However, based on the current model analysis the front does not seem to have much of an impact on the temperatures in the long term forecast period. Further shifts will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see how the model trends continue to evolve with this event along with any changes for the potential impacts from this cold front. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds and clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported southwest winds around 2 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. Generally light winds and low seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Saturday Night through Thursday...Mostly favorable conditions with light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and low to moderate seas. The main exceptions to this pattern will be on Sunday and Thursday as both days the pressure gradient is expected to tighten, which will result in stronger southeasterly winds that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 61 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 83 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 71 78 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 61 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1209160 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 22.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 245 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula. A northwest-to-southeast flow associated with the mid- level high will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure easing towards the east will allow an onshore flow to redevelop, persist, and intensify. Overnight low and daytime high temperatures will gradually warm, with values at well above normal levels for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The long term forecast period will be a pleasant and mostly stable period along with being rain free as well. With a mid-level ridge being the main influence for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period and even some zonal flow aloft, more aloft dry air is expected to move into the area. Thus, the dry and stable air aloft will greatly hinder any chance of rain development for the long term forecast period. Also with the influence of the mid-level ridge in place, the area will see a summer-like weather pattern resulting in higher than normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 60s through the period. Meanwhile, on the surface, southeasterly to southerly winds are expected to persist through the period each day. While the winds are expected to be generally light each day, however by Sunday the pressure gradient is expected to tighten as a low pressure system interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. Around mid to late week, a upper-level trough will push across the Southeast and bring a front towards the area. The current trend in the models still shows a large difference of in timing for the front. Currently the GFS brings the front in sooner and the ECMWF is much later. However, based on the current model analysis the front does not seem to have much of an impact on the temperatures in the long term forecast period. Further shifts will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see how the model trends continue to evolve with this event along with any changes for the potential impacts from this cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds should be light and variable overnight, becoming calm at times. Tomorrow, winds should be light and easterly. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported southwest winds around 2 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. Generally light winds and low seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. Saturday Night through Thursday...Mostly favorable conditions with light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and low to moderate seas. The main exceptions to this pattern will be on Sunday and Thursday as both days the pressure gradient is expected to tighten, which will result in stronger southeasterly winds that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 61 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 83 59 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 71 78 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 61 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
