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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1261298 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 02.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 510 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 508 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Key Messages - Hot and dry conditions forecast to continue this week. - Fire weather concerns look to increase Tuesday through Thursday. - Adverse marine conditions and increased risks of rip currents are likely Tuesday through Friday. - Rain chances increase this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 An upper-level shortwave moving across the Southern Planes Tuesday through Thursday will likely tighten pressure gradients across Deep South Texas resulting in stronger southeasterly winds. Hot temperatures will likely continue through the end of the week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s each afternoon. Rain chances increase to around 10% Wednesday due to increased forcing and mid-level moisture advection associated with the shortwave. The best potential for showers in thunderstorms looks to remain north of the CWA. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast to continue through Friday. Afternoon relative humidity values look to fall to 30-40% along and west of I-69C each afternoon through Friday. Afternoon 20 ft wind speeds are forecast to reach 15-20 MPH across most of the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. The overlap of stronger winds and low relative humidity may result in elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours each afternoon, primarily across Brooks and Jim Hogg Counties. An upper-level trough over the West Coast looks to develop into a closed low along Baja California this weekend. Upper-level diffluence along the eastern periphery of the low will likely result in increased forcing over South Texas, which combined with increased mid-level moisture will likely result in increased rain chances this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Diminishing winds overnight will become breezy on Tuesday. Generally mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast are forecast to tighten Tuesday, resulting in stronger southeasterly winds during the afternoon through the end of the week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed daily for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Conditions look to improve by the weekend, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas likely through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 85 71 85 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 67 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 93 69 94 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 78 71 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1261282 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 02.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Key Messages - Hot and dry conditions forecast to continue this week. - Fire weather concerns look to increase Tuesday through Thursday. - Adverse marine conditions and increased risks of rip currents are likely Tuesday through Friday. - Rain chances increase this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 An upper-level shortwave moving across the Southern Planes Tuesday through Thursday will likely tighten pressure gradients across Deep South Texas resulting in stronger southeasterly winds. Hot temperatures will likely continue through the end of the week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s each afternoon. Rain chances increase to around 10% Wednesday due to increased forcing and mid-level moisture advection associated with the shortwave. The best potential for showers in thunderstorms looks to remain north of the CWA. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast to continue through Friday. Afternoon relative humidity values look to fall to 30-40% along and west of I-69C each afternoon through Friday. Afternoon 20 ft wind speeds are forecast to reach 15-20 MPH across most of the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. The overlap of stronger winds and low relative humidity may result in elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours each afternoon, primarily across Brooks and Jim Hogg Counties. An upper-level trough over the West Coast looks to develop into a closed low along Baja California this weekend. Upper-level diffluence along the eastern periphery of the low will likely result in increased forcing over South Texas, which combined with increased mid-level moisture will likely result in increased rain chances this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR conditions likely returning overnight. Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon, with gusts diminishing this evening. Wind speeds are forecast to remain around 10 kts overnight, which would likely hinder fog development, thous some visibility reductions to MVFR levels cant be ruled out. MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely develop early Tuesday morning and linger into the mid-morning before conditions return to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast are forecast to tighten Tuesday, resulting in stronger southeasterly winds during the afternoon through the end of the week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed daily for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Conditions look to improve by the weekend, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas likely through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 84 66 85 71 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 88 63 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 91 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 63 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 69 78 71 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 65 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261264 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 02.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 545 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Key Messages - Hot and dry week ahead. - Possible weekend rain. - Wind and cured fuels raises wildfire potential. - Adverse marine conditions. - Continuous rip current threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 920 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Dry weather with well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will dominate through a majority of the period. This will be due to 500 mb high pressure that will gradually shift from west to east across Mexico and the Gulf of America, but will be in control throughout the shift over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. However, a glimmer of hope in a change in the weather pattern exists for the coming weekend. Closed 500 mb low pressure diving south into the Baja Peninsula, and eventually east across the Lone Star State, may bring isolated to scattered convection from Saturday night through Sunday across the BRO CWFA. Prior to the precipitation potential, a breezy to windy onshore flow will occur. Given the anticipated strength of the winds, and abundant cure fuels from prolonged drought conditions and a couple of episodes of freezing temperatures earlier this year, the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (or several) cannot be entirely ruled out. Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will likely create a Moderate Risk to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches daily. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Light southeast winds and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Latest Satellite imagery indicates some low stratus with IFR ceilings at MFE. Will include a TEMPO for MFE until around 13Z as the low ceilings should be short-lived. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Light southeast winds this morning will become moderate and gusty later this morning into the afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected late in the period as low clouds and fog develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 920 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 A steadily enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce unsettled marine conditions throughout the forecast period. Breezy to strong winds are anticipated, with moderate to rough seas likely. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed daily, especially for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf of America waters, beginning on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 85 67 85 70 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 88 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 91 67 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 63 94 68 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 69 78 70 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 65 84 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
