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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1181068 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 236 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Above normal temperatures and heat index values are expected across Deep South Texas Tuesday afternoon. - Heat index values will range from 105-114 degrees during the afternoon hours. - Poor air quality will persist across portions of the region. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the short term period across Deep South Texas the region remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging and persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow. Stratus clouds will develop late this evening from east to west, which will keep conditions mild and humid tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to low 80s across the Rio Grande Valley. Some patchy fog may develop closer to day break, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Morning cloud cover and fog will quickly dissipate by mid morning, which will allow for another warm day across Deep South Texas. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 105 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the humidity, "feels like" temperatures will range from 105-114 degrees during the afternoon hours. Portions of the Mid/Upper Rio Grand Valley and Northern Ranchlands may need a Heat Advisory as heat indices rise above 111 degrees, but will hold off on the issuance of any heat headlines with this update. Otherwise, hazy skies associated with agricultural fires from southeast Mexico will be an issue, with the haze more notable closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Above normal temperatures and heat index values are expected across Deep South Texas this week and Memorial Day weekend. - The combination of above normal temperatures and humidity will yield dangerous heat index values in the 110-120 degree range during the day, and in the upper 80s to low 90s overnight. - There will be an increased risk of heat related impacts, especially those that do not take adequate breaks in the shade or stay hydrated. - Poor air quality will continue through the week for most of the region. The mid/upper level ridge centered over Mexico will limit any precipitation chances across Deep South Texas. Meanwhile, established low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain humid and hazy conditions through the weekend and early next week. The haze is associated with agricultural burning in southeast Mexico, which will maintain periods of poor air quality across portions of the region. Well above normal temperatures will combine with high dew points, which will result in dangerous heat index values each afternoon across all of Deep South Texas. High temperatures will steadily increase each day, with triple-digit high temperatures expected along and west of I-69 by the end of the week, continuing into Memorial Day weekend. In combination with the humidity, "feels like" temperatures will range from 107-114 degrees Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, and from 115-120 degrees Friday through Memorial Day. To add to the oppressive daytime heat, nighttime temperatures unfortunately will not provide much relief for most of the Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Northern Ranchlands. Forecast low temperatures in the low 80s are expected each night/early morning, and in combination with the high humidity, will yield morning "feels like" temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These very warm low temperatures and heat index values will limit the ability for our bodies to recover from daytime heat. Regardless of the issuance of Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings (which are likely heading into Memorial Day weekend), the prolonged period of excessive heat across all of Deep South Texas will result in a major to extreme risk of heat related impacts and illnesses to anyone who does not take the necessary heat precautions. If you have any outdoor plans this weekend, whether it`s to the beach, a graduation ceremony, or outdoor get together, make sure you are taking the oppressive heat into account. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR will prevail through this evening across the region, with intermittent periods of reduced visibility (around 5-6SM) due to haze. MVFR ceilings will develop once again after 03Z and persist through around 15-16Z Tuesday. Otherwise, expect south to southeast winds around 10-15 knots today and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters tomorrow afternoon as wind speeds increase in response to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. Wednesday through Monday...Small Craft Exercise Cautions conditions will be possible across the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre through the end of the week due to moderate winds and building seas. Wave heights will approach 5-6 feet by Thursday before slightly falling to around 4-5 feet into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 81 96 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 97 79 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 102 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 82 87 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181052 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 PM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, daytime high temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 105 and 110 degrees today, with isolated spots reaching 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for today, but will instead cover the heat threat with a Special Weather Statement. However, for Tuesday, a Heat Advisory may very well be needed, with heat indices progged to max out at 111 to 112 degrees across a more widespread area. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for now, and address the issue in about 24 hours (if not less than that by a successive shift) after Monday highs are tabled and new model guidance is available. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A broad 500 mb ridge centered over Mexico extending into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady low-level southeasterly to southerly flow will result in continued humid conditions across the area. Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend as the mid to upper level ridge continues to build. High temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s along the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69E/US 77 corridor by Friday. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures ranging from upper 90s along the beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. Overnight temperatures will remain warm with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The "feels like" temperatures each night will remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR will prevail through this evening across the region, with intermittent periods of reduced visibility (around 5-6SM) due to haze. MVFR ceilings will develop once again after 03Z and persist through around 15-16Z Tuesday. Otherwise, expect south to southeast winds around 10-15 knots today and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today through Tuesday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An initially modest pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will strengthen slightly during the period, with high pressure generally in control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas during the period, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed on Tuesday, especially for the Laguna Madre. Tuesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Wednesday through the holiday weekend due to increased winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181018 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 619 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, daytime high temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 105 and 110 degrees today, with isolated spots reaching 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for today, but will instead cover the heat threat with a Special Weather Statement. However, for Tuesday, a Heat Advisory may very well be needed, with heat indices progged to max out at 111 to 112 degrees across a more widespread area. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for now, and address the issue in about 24 hours (if not less than that by a successive shift) after Monday highs are tabled and new model guidance is available. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A broad 500 mb ridge centered over Mexico extending into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady low-level southeasterly to southerly flow will result in continued humid conditions across the area. Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend as the mid to upper level ridge continues to build. High temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s along the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69E/US 77 corridor by Friday. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures ranging from upper 90s along the beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. Overnight temperatures will remain warm with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The "feels like" temperatures each night will remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The aerodromes will continue to experience MVFR to VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today through Tuesday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An initially modest pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will strengthen slightly during the period, with high pressure generally in control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas during the period, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed on Tuesday, especially for the Laguna Madre. Tuesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Wednesday through the holiday weekend due to increased winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1180998 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 251 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, daytime high temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 105 and 110 degrees today, with isolated spots reaching 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for today, but will instead cover the heat threat with a Special Weather Statement. However, for Tuesday, a Heat Advisory may very well be needed, with heat indices progged to max out at 111 to 112 degrees across a more widespread area. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for now, and address the issue in about 24 hours (if not less than that by a successive shift) after Monday highs are tabled and new model guidance is available. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A broad 500 mb ridge centered over Mexico extending into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady low-level southeasterly to southerly flow will result in continued humid conditions across the area. Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend as the mid to upper level ridge continues to build. High temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s along the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69E/US 77 corridor by Friday. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures ranging from upper 90s along the beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. Overnight temperatures will remain warm with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The "feels like" temperatures each night will remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today through Tuesday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An initially modest pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will strengthen slightly during the period, with high pressure generally in control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas during the period, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed on Tuesday, especially for the Laguna Madre. Tuesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Wednesday through the holiday weekend due to increased winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180979 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The main weather story will continue to be the building heat through the short-term period and beyond. This is due to a mid/upper level ridge axis anchored across Mexico expanding into Texas and the remainder of the Southern Plains over the next few days. Strong subsidence and limited moisture depth will keep a rain-free forecast going. It does appear that we will have one more day on Monday where heat advisory criteria (111 degree heat indices) will be just shy of being met for most of the area. A few isolated locations will likely reach 111 heat index or just exceed it for an hour or two but not long enough or widespread enough to warrant a heat advisory at this time for Monday. Heat indices will generally peak between 105 and 110 degrees on Monday. Geocolor satellite imagery continues to depict the core of the agricultural smoke/haze over the open Gulf with the periphery of this affecting portions of our CWA. Based upon the RAP-Smoke and GEOS-5 models forecast of vertically integrated smoke and total aerosols, have decided to add haze to the weather grids through Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Key Messages: - Above normal temperatures and heat index values are expected across Deep South Texas this week and Memorial Day weekend. - The combination of above normal temperatures and humidity will yield dangerous heat index values in the 110-120 degree range during the day, and in the upper 80s to low 90s overnight. - There will be an increased risk of heat related impacts, especially those that do not take adequate breaks in the shade or stay hydrated. - Poor air quality will continue through the week for most of the region. Mid/upper level ridging centered over Mexico will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas into Memorial Day weekend. Meanwhile, persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will result in continued humid conditions at the surface. In addition to the heat and humidity, low level winds will continue to transport smoke associated with agricultural burning in southeast Mexico, which will maintain poor air quality across portions of the region. A steady increase in temperatures is expected through the week and into the weekend as the ridge continues to build, with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches, mid to upper 90s along/east of I-69, and above 100 degrees (100-106 degrees) west of I-69. In combination with the humidity, "feels like" temperatures will range from upper 90s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. In comparison to the early May heat wave, one notable difference is the forecast of higher minimum temperatures each night... with most of the Rio Grande Valley expected to observe low temperatures in the low 80s. In combination with the high dew points in place, there won`t be much relief from the heat overnight as "feels like" temperatures remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. Heat headlines may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. Regardless of the issuance of any heat products (Heat Advisory, Excessive Heat Warning), the prolonged period of oppressive daytime and nighttime temperatures will limit the ability to recover from the heat, especially if spending several hours outside during the day. If you have any outdoor plans this weekend for Memorial Day or attending outdoor graduation ceremonies, make sure you are taking the oppressive heat into account. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Tonight through Monday night...Generally weak onshore flow will continue tonight. However 3-4 ft swells will persist but are expected to slowly decay through the short-term. Overall, this will tend to maintain a moderate risk of rip currents through tonight with a borderline moderate risk of rips on Monday. The flow will continue to veer through Monday as a more climatologically normal return flow setup establishes itself. A bit more in the way of a moderate onshore flow as a result will establish itself by Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Seas will slowly respond and build back to 4 ft overnight on Monday. Tuesday through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Thursday and Friday due to increased winds and seas slightly building. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 80 94 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 100 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 77 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
