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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1225366 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 03.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 244 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Well above normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions continue across Deep South Texas. A 500mb trough continues to deepen into the Desert SW and West Texas, with a series of surface low pressure systems swinging through the Southern Plains, this will maintain dry conditions locally with an enhanced pressure gradient, setting up a strong low level jet of 45 to 50 kts at 850mb along the lower Texas coast this morning into this afternoon and again on Friday, where the LLJ may be even stronger. A Wind Advisory may be needed both today and Friday, with slightly higher chances on Friday at the moment. Current observations across the RGV and VAD wind profiles compared to this time last night are improved, but may defer to the morning sounding once again for the final decision on this shift. HREF probabilities top off near 40 percent for wind gusts over 40 mph through this morning across the lower valley and lower Texas coast, with the NBM less than 30 percent. For winds today and Friday, ran with a blend of NBM90 and NBM95 for inland areas, hand editing up across Cameron County where necessary. Winds should remain breezy overnight and increase once again into Friday afternoon. Highs range from the low to mid 90s east to around 100 west today, dropping a couple of degrees on Friday. There is a High Risk of rip current statement and a High Surf Advisory along the lower Texas coast in effect until further notice. Heat Risk remains moderate, with Heat Indices or feels like temperatures topping off between 100 to 105 generally. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm temperatures to continue on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. * Northerly winds strengthen late Saturday into Sunday following the cold fropa. * Unseasonably cool temperatures begins late Saturday into Sunday and continues through Monday. * A warming trend takes place Monday through Thursday of next week. * Hazardous marine conditions continue into Monday before improving. Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a mid- upper trough translating eastward from the Desert Southwest Region into the Southern Plains late this week into this weekend. This will help drive a cold front southeastward through Texas and for that matter through Deep South Texas Saturday into Sunday. So while mainly dry weather conditions are expected to prevail through the long-term forecast period, cooler changes are expected during the second half of the weekend into the early parts of next week. Temperatures will then begin to moderate/warm back up towards the middle part next week. It will be windy through the weekend both ahead and behind the cold frontal passage. We start of the extended Friday night into Saturday where unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will take place. Friday night will feature warm and muggy conditions. Overnight lows are progged to be in the 70s for much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Initially, during the early parts of evening and early parts of the night, it will be breezy. However, southerly winds are expected to wane as the pressure gradient over the region relaxes and the pre-frontal trough approaches. On Saturday, temperatures ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough and cold front will have the chance to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A pre-frontal through is expected to pass through the area on Saturday resulting in winds out of the south shifting out of the north. While winds will shift in response to this pre- frontal trough, an airmass change is not expected as the colder air will be located further to the west behind an approaching cold front. Saturday night into Sunday, the cold front finally arrives resulting in a notable cool down during this time period. Overnight lows for Saturday night are progged to be in the 50s for most of the area, some 30-40F degrees cooler than the high temperatures on Saturday and 20F degrees cooler than the overnight lows from Friday night. These values will also be cooler than normal for early April standards. Following the passage of the cold front, northerly winds are expected to strengthen Saturday night into Sunday before weakening on Sunday. Finally, mainly dry weather conditions are expected to persist Saturday night into Sunday. Given that the cold front will be moisture starved, there is only an isolated threat for showers across the southeastern portions of Deep South Texas (i.e Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron Counties) with the best chance being offshore. With a full dry and cold air advection regime in place, Sunday is expected to be the coolest of the week with daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. Sunday and Monday nights will be chilly with overnight lows in the upper 40s over the Northern Ranchlands to the low to mid 50s along the RGV. A warming trend will commence to start the new workweek with mid 80s to the lower 90s returning by Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 MVFR conditions will quickly give way to windy VFR conditions near daybreak, like yesterday. Expect AWWs needed for wind gusts over 35 kts through the afternoon hours. The low level jet increases towards 50 kts this morning along the coast and gradually works offshore, have kept wind shear into this package until mid-morning when better mixing increases surface winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Now through Friday...An enhanced pressure gradient due to low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will maintain elevated winds across all coastal waters, driving elevated seas and adverse marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories have been extended and will likely continue until further notice. Friday night through Thursday....Small Craft Advisories will likely persist into Monday. Despite south-southeast winds subsiding and shifting out of the north in response to a pre-frontal trough, sea heights will still remain in high state Friday night through Saturday. Following the cold fropa late Saturday, winds will strengthen out of the north. These strong winds will persist through Sunday and into Monday. During the day on Monday, winds and seas look to subside giving way to improving marine conditions. More favorable conditions return Monday evening and persist through Thursday of next week with low to moderate seas and light to moderate winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across the Arroyo Colorado, main floodway, and north floodway remain elevated but continue to improve. Water levels across the Rio Grande at San Benito and Lower Brownsville have both fallen below action stage. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 16.92 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.22 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested to 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito fell below action stage of 44.0 ft around 7 PM Wednesday and are currently 42.24 ft and falling. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday, and crested to 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon, short of minor flood stage at 27.0 ft. Water levels at Lower Brownsville fell below action stage of 24.0 ft around 2 PM Wednesday and are currently 23.1 ft and falling. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 17.25 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 11.74 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 76 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 73 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 74 98 71 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 74 82 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225354 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 03.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Windy with another Wind Advisory Thursday. - Above Normal Temperatures - High Risk of Rip Currents and Small Craft Advisories The active spring synoptic pattern continue to support breezy to outright windy conditions for all of Deep South Texas, especially the coastal counties. A broad and strong cold low pressure trough continues to deepening over the Rockies and Inter-Mountain west and combine with subtropical ridge building over Florida and the Gulf. The pressure gradient remains strong over the Western Gulf with models suggesting the redevelopment of the 925-850mb low level jet tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning. Models are suggesting the LLJ to peak around 50 knots late tonight/Thursday AM and 45-50kts Friday AM. Mechanical mixing starting around sunrise Thursday and continuing as daytime heating accelerates should allow for these winds to mix to the surface setting the stage for another wind Advisory favoring the coastal counties including the Lower RGV and SPI. Other sensible weather, strong southerly winds maintain above normal temperatures for the short term with lows in the 70s both Tonight and Thursday night. High climb well into 90 away from the immediate coast. Combine these afternoon temperatures with dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will be bumping up in the 98-104 degree range maintain at least a moderate heat risk for most of Deep South Texas. Look for a thin layer of stratus overspread the CWA tonight and quickly burning off Thursday mid-morning. Similar to this morning, increasing clouds tonight with a mostly sunny day tomorrow. Finally, the high risk of rip currents at our local beaches persist through at least Friday morning as the strong southerly winds continue to roughen up the surf. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 *Key Messages: - Windy conditions on Friday, with a Wind Advisory possible - Well-above average temperatures Friday and Saturday with the warmest day expected to be Friday -Cold front passes through Saturday with below average temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming with more average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday into Saturday morning, with winds out of the south-southeast, as a tight pressure gradient develops between a strengthening surface low pressure near the AR/TX/OH borders and a high pressure offshore the southeast US coast. A Wind Advisory is possible on Friday as the NBM is already hinting at a 10-15% of sustained winds exceeding 30 mph across the barrier islands, coastal counties and the middle RGV. Additionally, the GFS is indicating a 35-50 knot low-level (925 mb) jet along and east of I-69 C. As the low pressure strengthens, an associated pre- frontal trough is expected to approach Deep South Texas from the north, with winds weakening and turning northerly as the trough passes through from Saturday morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-to-upper level trough and cut-off low will advance east- southeastward from the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico on Friday to West Texas by Saturday morning. As it continues eastward and mid-to- upper southwesterly flow divergence increases over the County Warning Area (CWA), along with the lift provided by the approaching front, a gradual uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the lower Texas Gulf waters is expected to result in a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance over the western Gulf throughout the day Saturday. As the front arrives on the leading edge of a surge of high pressure later Saturday night, a low-to-medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the coastal counties and Middle RGV from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front, breezy conditions return late Saturday night and into Sunday as north- northwesterly low-level (925 mb) winds increase on the backside of the departing low pressure system. Quiet weather is expected by Monday, and into the rest of the long term, as ridging aloft gives way to west-northwesterly flow. Northerly surface winds continue into Monday and become southeasterly by Wednesday as a high pressure moves into the Deep South. Friday is anticipated to be the hottest day of the period with highs soaring into 90s across inland portions of Deep South Texas, nearing 100 degrees F over the Rio Grande Plains, with Friday night lows falling to the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s. On Saturday, the wind shift out of the north is likely to limit highs to the upper 80s-to- low 90s. As the front passes through Saturday night, temperatures will cool off substantially and into the 50s. Highs in the 70s are expected for Sunday and Monday with 80s returning Tuesday and Wednesday as winds veer back to easterly and southeasterly. Lows in the 40s/50s Sunday and Monday night will slightly warm into mid-to- upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 MVFR conditions will quickly give way to windy VFR conditions near daybreak, like yesterday. Expect AWWs needed for wind gusts over 35 kts through the afternoon hours. The low level jet increases towards 50 kts this morning along the coast and gradually works offshore, have kept wind shear into this package until mid-morning when better mixing increases surface winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Tonight through Thursday night...Western Gulf pressure gradient persist through Friday morning as high pressure combines with a strengthen low pressure trough settling over the Southern Rocky Mountains. A diurnal wind pattern with strong offshore winds developing overnight and lowering during the day. While winds on the Laguna Madre are likely to be stronger during the afternoon hours with limited diminishing during the evening and overnight hours. Seas have responded today due to earlier strong winds at buoy 42020 and are in the range of 6 to 9 feet offshore. The high sea state persist through Friday morning and may even builds overnight. Small Craft Advisory are already in effect until 1 AM Friday for all coastal waters. Friday through next Wednesday...Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist through Monday. Fresh to strong south-southeasterly winds and moderate to rough (6-10 ft) seas are likely Friday and Friday night due to a tight pressure gradient between a strengthening low pressure system over the Central Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds temporarily weaken on Saturday as a pre-frontal trough shifts winds out of the north. Seas are anticipated to subside to moderate (6-8 feet) during this time. As the front draws closer throughout the day Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase from a low-to- moderate (20-30%) to a moderate (30-40%) chance by late Saturday evening. Following the passage of the cold front late Saturday night, northerly winds will increase to strong into Sunday morning, building seas back to rough, possibly very rough, into Sunday afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds maintain into Monday with much more ideal conditions returning throughout the beginning of next week with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas returning by Tuesday, gradually shifting out of the southeast by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 89 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 92 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 96 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 97 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 81 74 82 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
