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Atlantic is mostly quiet again, but two waves approaching from Africa are being monitored.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1248600 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents begins tomorrow at area beaches and is expected to continue through the weekend. - A warming trend continues through next Tuesday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will be less then 10% through next Tuesday, and then increase to around 20% on Wednesday and Thursday for areas E of US 281/I-69C. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An active weather pattern remains in place over the CONUS, which could bring multiple troughs over the Great Plains this next week. Despite the active pattern, dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue over Deep South Texas through the middle of next week, with precipitation chances staying below 10% through Tuesday and rising to around 20% for areas east of US 281/I-69C on Wednesday and Thursday. A Pacific trough is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this weekend, which will bring a weak cold front towards our area on Sunday. At this time, model guidance is not in agreement on whether or not this front will make it all the way through Deep South Texas. Some guidance suggests the front will stall to the north of the CWA closer to Corpus Christi. Other guidance suggests that the front will come through the entire Rio Grande Valley before stalling in Mexico. Either way, this front is not expected to bring any temperature relief to the area because the air will largely mix out by the time it comes this far south. Latest guidance also suggests that the precipitation chances are not expected to increase much on Sunday either, with POPs still staying below 10%. However, if the front does make it south of the CWA, we could see winds shift northeasterly which would slightly lower humidities. A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into early next week as high pressure settles in behind the front. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, and gradually warm into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday with some areas (particularly in the Western Ranchlands) experiencing a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday, another shortwave ejects over the Southern Plains, which will provide another opportunity for a cold front to pass through the region. This front appears to be slightly stronger than the previous weekend front; if this front happens to make it to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, it could provide some temperature relief and a slightly elevated precipitation chance on Wendesday. A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents is expected at area beaches tomorrow and should continue through the weekend. Area swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in shallow water if unsure. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions with few clouds and light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected for all airports. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to moderate winds and seas between 2-4 feet. A cold front is expected to approach the area on Sunday, which could tighten the pressure gradient and increase coastal wind speeds. However, wind speeds are still expected to stay below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds are expected to be overall easterly to southeasterly, possibly shifting northeasterly if the front makes it through Deep South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 86 78 86 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248601 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents begins tomorrow at area beaches and is expected to continue through the weekend. - A warming trend continues through next Tuesday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will be less then 10% through next Tuesday, and then increase to around 20% on Wednesday and Thursday for areas E of US 281/I-69C. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An active weather pattern remains in place over the CONUS, which could bring multiple troughs over the Great Plains this next week. Despite the active pattern, dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue over Deep South Texas through the middle of next week, with precipitation chances staying below 10% through Tuesday and rising to around 20% for areas east of US 281/I-69C on Wednesday and Thursday. A Pacific trough is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this weekend, which will bring a weak cold front towards our area on Sunday. At this time, model guidance is not in agreement on whether or not this front will make it all the way through Deep South Texas. Some guidance suggests the front will stall to the north of the CWA closer to Corpus Christi. Other guidance suggests that the front will come through the entire Rio Grande Valley before stalling in Mexico. Either way, this front is not expected to bring any temperature relief to the area because the air will largely mix out by the time it comes this far south. Latest guidance also suggests that the precipitation chances are not expected to increase much on Sunday either, with POPs still staying below 10%. However, if the front does make it south of the CWA, we could see winds shift northeasterly which would slightly lower humidities. A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into early next week as high pressure settles in behind the front. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, and gradually warm into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday with some areas (particularly in the Western Ranchlands) experiencing a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday, another shortwave ejects over the Southern Plains, which will provide another opportunity for a cold front to pass through the region. This front appears to be slightly stronger than the previous weekend front; if this front happens to make it to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, it could provide some temperature relief and a slightly elevated precipitation chance on Wendesday. A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents is expected at area beaches tomorrow and should continue through the weekend. Area swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in shallow water if unsure. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions with few clouds and light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected for all airports. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to moderate winds and seas between 2-4 feet. A cold front is expected to approach the area on Sunday, which could tighten the pressure gradient and increase coastal wind speeds. However, wind speeds are still expected to stay below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds are expected to be overall easterly to southeasterly, possibly shifting northeasterly if the front makes it through Deep South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 86 78 86 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248583 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 * Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern through next Thursday with warmer than normal temperatures. * There is a low (20%) chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas; 20-30% chances Tuesday night through Thursday night over the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Benign, mainly rain-free weather conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period or through Thursday of next week. A couple of cool fronts and ~1020 hpa highs will approach Deep South Texas this weekend through the middle parts of next week. The first cool front has a chance to push through the forecast area on Sunday. A notable airmass change is not expected, though there could be some drier air filtering into the area at times. The second cool front will push through the Pac NW and Rockies before advancing through much of the state of Texas on Tuesday, potentially stalling nearby South/Deep South Texas on Tuesday night-Wednesday. Forecast models are indicating rain chances picking up over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday in response to that nearby frontal boundary. Currently, we have low (20%) chances for rain showers Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas (inland) with 20-30% chances over the Gulf Waters (Tuesday night through Thursday night). An anomalously strong 588-591 dam heat ridge is expected to drive our weather pattern through next Thursday. This will help to keep temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period with daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Calm winds this morning are expected to pickup out of the southeast late this morning, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots. Few to scattered cumulus is expected to develop this afternoon. Light and variable winds and mostly clear skies are expected to return this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through next Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 86 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248560 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 102 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 * Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern through next Thursday with warmer than normal temperatures. * There is a low (20%) chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas; 20-30% chances Tuesday night through Thursday night over the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Benign, mainly rain-free weather conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period or through Thursday of next week. A couple of cool fronts and ~1020 hpa highs will approach Deep South Texas this weekend through the middle parts of next week. The first cool front has a chance to push through the forecast area on Sunday. A notable airmass change is not expected, though there could be some drier air filtering into the area at times. The second cool front will push through the Pac NW and Rockies before advancing through much of the state of Texas on Tuesday, potentially stalling nearby South/Deep South Texas on Tuesday night-Wednesday. Forecast models are indicating rain chances picking up over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday in response to that nearby frontal boundary. Currently, we have low (20%) chances for rain showers Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas (inland) with 20-30% chances over the Gulf Waters (Tuesday night through Thursday night). An anomalously strong 588-591 dam heat ridge is expected to drive our weather pattern through next Thursday. This will help to keep temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period with daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Light and variable to calm winds are expected overnight. By late morning winds are expected to pickup out of the southeast at around 10 knots. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through next Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 86 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
