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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| #1284497 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 03.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 120 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Patchy fog possible tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly across locations west of I-95. - 2) Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible Thursday and Friday as a front approaches and moves through the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog possible tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly across locations west of I-95. High pressure will maintain its hold over the local forecast area through tonight and into Wednesday morning. Dew points this afternoon are generally in the upper 60s to around 70 across the region. Cross over temperatures will likely be able to be reached overnight tonight across inland locations as low temperatures drop into the low 60s. The 12Z REFS shows probabilities of <0.5 mi visibilities in the 30-40% range west of I-95. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required for portions of the forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible Thursday and Friday as a front approaches and moves through the region. Aloft, ridging in place on Wednesday will get pushed off the coast as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes region. A trough will then shift through the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley into Friday, pushing a front towards the forecast area. For Thursday, model consensus is that the bulk of the forcing and low level convergence will remain displaced inland, likely keeping most of the forecast area dry. So any showers and thunderstorms will be mainly a concern for the interior of the forecast area and likely even moreso still further inland than that. It will be quite warm, with low to mid 80s, and this could result in enough surface-based instability to produce a few thunderstorms. Still, we anticipate most of the area (if not all) to remain dry). For Friday, the forecast area will be in an area of cyclonic flow aloft on the far southern periphery of an upper low across the Great Lakes. The best shortwave energy rotating around the upper low will pass by to the north and northwest of the forecast area. The surface front should start getting into the area in the morning, pushing offshore into the evening and early morning hours. The front should bring a broken band of mostly scattered coverage of showers with a thunderstorm or two possible. Overall, the lack of notable forcing and coverage will keep the rainfall potential on the low end. In fact, most probabilistic guidance keeps the chances of 0.25" or more of rainfall at less than 20% for most of the forecast area. Also, while a few thunderstorms will be possible, the strong/severe risk is very low. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR to start the 18Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI with some brief moments of MVFR expected at KSAV this afternoon. Fog is forecast to develop across the region tonight, however confidence in impacts at the terminals is low as the fog could remain inland. At this juncture have BR mentioned in all TAFs with 5SM at KCHS/KJZI and 3SM at KSAV. Any fog/ground fog should clear by mid-morning with prevailing VFR there after. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, could impact the area Thursday and Friday. Any resulting flight restrictions are expected to be brief. && .MARINE... Rest of Today through Tonight: Surface high pressure will continue to dominate over the marine waters, yielding NE winds between 15 to 20 knots. Seas will generally be 3 to 5 ft across the nearshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters where a Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Wednesday morning. Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions across the local water will continue to improve Wednesday as the gradient relaxes and allow for onshore easterly flow no more than 10-15 knots. Light southeasterly to southerly flow is expected Thursday before turning southwesterly ahead of an approaching front. The front will pass to the east Friday night, though there a significant surge is not expected in its wake. Seas will steadily improve as well. Seas up to around 5 feet will continue in the outer GA waters on Wednesday, with 2-4 feet expected for the most part across all waters through the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284467 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 03.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 627 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs and Marine section updated for changes in Small Craft Advisories. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. A mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late week. The best forcing will pass to the north, but deeper moisture will spread into the area, noted by PWats climbing to over 1.5". Rain chances will increase as a result with scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and especially Friday. Highest coverage is expected over inland areas. Rainfall amounts look rather unimpressive, with NBM indicating only a 10-25% chance for precip greater than 0.25" in a 24 hour period. Drier air moves back in following fropa later Friday with a dry forecast for the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the warmer side of normal this week. Highs are forecast to peak in the low to mid 80s most days. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite indicated a patch of IFR ceilings over KCHS and KJZI, with MVFR ceilings near KSAV. The TAFs will highlight the potential for restrictive ceilings with TEMPOs this morning through 15Z. VFR conditions expected through the rest of the day. As temperatures warm into the low 80s today, a weak sea breeze should develop and advance inland. By 15z, the TAFs will feature a east-northeast wind at KJZI with gusts around 20 kts with an east wind at KCHS and KSAV. Wind gusts should end by 22Z, with speeds around 10 kts remaining through the rest of the TAF period. Late tonight, terminals will see dewpoints in the upper 60s in the wake of the afternoon sea breeze. As winds become light to calm during the pre-dawn hours, patchy fog or ground fog may develop over each terminal. At this time, each TAF will feature MVFR vis in fog after 9Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered shower coverage is expected on Thursday and Friday. Any flight restrictions with the showers will be brief. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: The sfc pattern should generally support northeast winds between 15 to 20 kts across the nearshore waters early this morning. As temperatures over land warm into the low 80s today, a sea breeze should develop and advance inland through this afternoon. Once the sea breeze forms, winds across the nearshore waters should veer gradually from the east-northeast and subside to around 10 to 15 kts. As a result, wave heights should begin the day between 5 to 6 ft across the nearshore, decreasing to 4 to 5 ft this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are scheduled to end over the GA nearshore waters this afternoon. The outer GA waters should continue to see periods of 6 ft seas today into tonight. The 6 ft seas over the outer GA waters should end tonight. Wednesday through Sunday: Wind and sea conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. A weak pressure gradient will provide SE winds between 5 to 10 kts on Wednesday. As a result, seas will decrease to 3 to 4 ft across the marine zones. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Thursday into Thursday night. Winds should turn from the southwest, with speeds generally less than 10 kts. Sfc high pressure will build across the area late this week into this weekend. Given a weak pressure gradient, winds should remain less than 15 kts with seas between 3 to 5 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284464 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 03.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 612 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. A mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late week. The best forcing will pass to the north, but deeper moisture will spread into the area, noted by PWats climbing to over 1.5". Rain chances will increase as a result with scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and especially Friday. Highest coverage is expected over inland areas. Rainfall amounts look rather unimpressive, with NBM indicating only a 10-25% chance for precip greater than 0.25" in a 24 hour period. Drier air moves back in following fropa later Friday with a dry forecast for the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the warmer side of normal this week. Highs are forecast to peak in the low to mid 80s most days. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite indicated a patch of IFR ceilings over KCHS and KJZI, with MVFR ceilings near KSAV. The TAFs will highlight the potential for restrictive ceilings with TEMPOs this morning through 15Z. VFR conditions expected through the rest of the day. As temperatures warm into the low 80s today, a weak sea breeze should develop and advance inland. By 15z, the TAFs will feature a east-northeast wind at KJZI with gusts around 20 kts with an east wind at KCHS and KSAV. Wind gusts should end by 22Z, with speeds around 10 kts remaining through the rest of the TAF period. Late tonight, terminals will see dewpoints in the upper 60s in the wake of the afternoon sea breeze. As winds become light to calm during the pre-dawn hours, patchy fog or ground fog may develop over each terminal. At this time, each TAF will feature MVFR vis in fog after 9Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered shower coverage is expected on Thursday and Friday. Any flight restrictions with the showers will be brief. && .MARINE... Tonight: The surface pattern should generally support NE winds between 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts through the near term. As a result, wave heights should remain between 5 to 7 ft. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all nearshore waters out 20 nm and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. However, winds continue a weaker trend across the Charleston Harbor post sunset, and therefore support ending a Small Craft Advisory across the harbor for the night. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure situated to the north will drift further over the north Atlantic on Tuesday. This will keep the tight pressure gradient and enhanced northeast flow across the local waters going with speeds mostly in the 15-20 knot range. By Wednesday, the gradient will relax and winds will turn more easterly with speeds no more than 10-15 knots. Then for Thursday, a front will approach from the west and winds will turn more southerly and light (5-10 knots). The front is expected to pass through Friday and Friday night with no significant surge behind it. Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will come to an end across the nearshore waters on Tuesday with decreasing winds and seas. The advisory for the outer GA waters will extend into Wednesday to account for lingering 6 ft seas. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ360- 362. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284446 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 03.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 114 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. A mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late week. The best forcing will pass to the north, but deeper moisture will spread into the area, noted by PWats climbing to over 1.5". Rain chances will increase as a result with scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and especially Friday. Highest coverage is expected over inland areas. Rainfall amounts look rather unimpressive, with NBM indicating only a 10-25% chance for precip greater than 0.25" in a 24 hour period. Drier air moves back in following fropa later Friday with a dry forecast for the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the warmer side of normal this week. Highs are forecast to peak in the low to mid 80s most days. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6Z TAFs: VFR. A sfc ridge will continue across the region through the TAF period. As temperatures warm into the low 80s today, a weak sea breeze should develop and advance inland. By 15z, the TAFs will feature a east-northeast wind at KJZI with gusts around 20 kts with an east wind at KCHS and KSAV. Wind gusts should end by 22Z, with speeds around 10 kts remaining through the rest of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered shower coverage is expected on Thursday and Friday. Any flight restrictions with the showers will be brief. && .MARINE... Tonight: The surface pattern should generally support NE winds between 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts through the near term. As a result, wave heights should remain between 5 to 7 ft. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all nearshore waters out 20 nm and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. However, winds continue a weaker trend across the Charleston Harbor post sunset, and therefore support ending a Small Craft Advisory across the harbor for the night. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure situated to the north will drift further over the north Atlantic on Tuesday. This will keep the tight pressure gradient and enhanced northeast flow across the local waters going with speeds mostly in the 15-20 knot range. By Wednesday, the gradient will relax and winds will turn more easterly with speeds no more than 10-15 knots. Then for Thursday, a front will approach from the west and winds will turn more southerly and light (5-10 knots). The front is expected to pass through Friday and Friday night with no significant surge behind it. Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will come to an end across the nearshore waters on Tuesday with decreasing winds and seas. The advisory for the outer GA waters will extend into Wednesday to account for lingering 6 ft seas. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ360- 362. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ384. && $$ |
