Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| #1181051 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 PM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 147 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cool air advection (between building ridging inland and troughing well offshore) is the name of the game across the area as we move toward midday, with widespread strato-cu developing at the top of BL in the modified-maritime airmass. Strengthening upper subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Mainly VFR prevails this afternoon, though some locations, like KCHS, continue to experience some MVFR cigs at least occasionally. Increased mixing mid afternoon will continue to scatter/raise ceilings, with VFR prevailing late afternoon through the evening. Late tonight, clear skies and light to calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, and shallow/light fog could develop, with greatest chances for inland southeast South Carolina through the pre-dawn hours. Have included a few hours of MVFR fog at KCHS. Meanwhile, KJZI is less likely to fully decouple and KSAV is further removed from the better moisture pooling, with VFR prevailing at both of these sites. Mixing returns widespread VFR shortly after sunrise Tuesday with mainly light northeast winds persisting. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Charleston and Colleton County coastlines around this time of this evening`s high tide (7 PM). The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides again Tuesday and Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1181038 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1110 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cool air advection (between building ridging inland and troughing well offshore) is the name of the game across the area as we move toward midday, with widespread strato-cu developing at the top of BL in the modified-maritime airmass. Strengthening upper subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Scattered MVFR ceilings have emerged this morning with strato-cu across much of the area at the top of the cooler boundary later. While improved mixing this afternoon is likely to scatter clouds somewhat, there is potential for at least occasional MVFR cigs at CHS, JZI, and SAV through early afternoon, represented with TEMPO groups in the updated TAFs. VFR conditions prevail again by mid-afternoon with mainly SCT cu based around 3-4 kft persisting. Gusty NE winds developing late morning will continue through the afternoon, with 15-20 kt gusts expected. Turning clear this evening with diminishing winds. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Charleston and Colleton County coastlines around this time of this evening`s high tide (7 PM). The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides again Tuesday and Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1181026 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 743 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No substantial changes made with the early morning update. Previous discussion... Pronounced short-wave has progressed well out of the Georgia outer waters along with the bulk of the remaining convection, although isolated showers along the western periphery of the circulation continue to rotate down through the coastal waters and skirting the Georgia coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover also along the northern and western edge of the wave continues to skirt the coastal areas down through southeast Georgia, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from the north. Short-wave trough axis will move further away from the coast today replaced with sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure folding into the Atlantic Coast. Today: Per radar trends and high-resolution guidance, spotty shower activity is looking to skirt the southeast Georgia Coast - mainly around Altamaha - through the early morning hours. Thus we plan to hold on to isolated pops down that way for just a bit longer. Cloud cover and the last bit of shower activity will slowly pull away from the southeast coast over the next several hours with drier air and N-S clearing skies taking shape this morning. Forecast soundings do suggest the development of "heating of the day" Cu later in the morning and through the afternoon and could lead to period of partly sunny conditions. Cloud cover has been nudged up accordingly. Otherwise, a cooler and certainly less humid day is on tap. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions will persist through today but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of the day" Cumulus developing late morning and persisting through the afternoon. A touch of gustiness is anticipated later this morning and through the afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible. Turning clear this evening with diminishing winds. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides tonight through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1180999 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 352 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pronounced short-wave has progressed well out of the Georgia outer waters along with the bulk of the remaining convection, although isolated showers along the western periphery of the circulation continue to rotate down through the coastal waters and skirting the Georgia coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover also along the northern and western edge of the wave continues to skirt the coastal areas down through southeast Georgia, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from the north. Short-wave trough axis will move further away from the coast today replaced with sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure folding into the Atlantic Coast. Today: Per radar trends and high-resolution guidance, spotty shower activity is looking to skirt the southeast Georgia Coast - mainly around Altamaha - through the early morning hours. Thus we plan to hold on to isolated pops down that way for just a bit longer. Cloud cover and the last bit of shower activity will slowly pull away from the southeast coast over the next several hours with drier air and N-S clearing skies taking shape this morning. Forecast soundings do suggest the development of "heating of the day" Cu later in the morning and through the afternoon and could lead to period of partly sunny conditions. Cloud cover has been nudged up accordingly. Otherwise, a cooler and certainly less humid day is on tap. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR to VFR cloud cover will persist at the terminals through the overnight, with gradual N-S clearing and return to VFR conditions by morning. VFR conditions then persist through the day Monday but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of the day" Cumulus develop late morning and persisting through the afternoon. Turning clear Monday evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides tonight through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1180982 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 141 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist through most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances will impact the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Pronounced short-wave has progressed out of the Georgia outer waters along with the bulk of remaining convection, although isolated showers along the western edge of the circulation continue to rotate down through the coastal waters, skirting the Georgia coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover along the northern and western edge also remains across a good portion of the forecast area, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from the north. Remaining showers should pull away from the Georgia coast over the next few hours. Lower cloud cover might be a bit more problematic based on satellite trends. Sky cover and pops were tweaked to reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep layered ridging will occur Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. There will be weak cold advection on Monday as the surface high remains to the north. This will keep highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s near the coast where a decent sea breeze will develop. The surface high will shift off the coast Monday night as the upper ridge continues to build. Increasing thicknesses Tuesday into Wednesday will produce a warming trend with highs in the mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep layered ridging will continue Wednesday night through Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing. A series of shortwaves will then impact the area late Friday afternoon through early next week, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR to VFR cloud cover will persist at the terminals through the overnight, with gradual N-S clearing and return to VFR conditions by morning. VFR conditions then persist through the day Monday but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of the day" Cumulus develop late morning and persisting through the afternoon. Turning clear Monday evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: The cold front will push south of the southern waters this evening. Northeast winds will dominate through the night with speeds generally 15-20 kt. Observations off the lower South Carolina coast show gusts 25-27 kt, but these may be convectively driven and not necessarily representative of prevailing conditions. The gradient will tighten a bit overnight, so gusts to 25 kt could become common if the gradient tightens more than expected. Conditions were held below Small Craft Advisory levels for now. Seas will build 2-4 ft, except 3-5 ft in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore zone. Monday through Friday: Monday and Monday night, a decent NE gradient is expected as high pressure remains to the north. A few 25 kt wind gusts are possible in the coastal waters, and seas could briefly reach 6 ft over GA offshore waters. The gradient will relax by Tuesday as the surface high moves east and winds turn to the SE. A more typical summer wind pattern will set up for mid to late week with daily sea breezes along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated early this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides Monday through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180968 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 954 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist through most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances will impact the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... No major changes were made for the late evening update. The front will continue to meander south this evening and should be south of the Altamaha River by an hour or so after midnight. Near term pops were adjusted to reflect current radar trends with 20-30% pops clustered near and south of the front. Most of the area has been solidly worked over, but an isolated tstm or two could still occur until the vorticity maximum noted just offshore pulls farther away. Drier air will slowly advect in from the north through the night. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep layered ridging will occur Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. There will be weak cold advection on Monday as the surface high remains to the north. This will keep highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s near the coast where a decent sea breeze will develop. The surface high will shift off the coast Monday night as the upper ridge continues to build. Increasing thicknesses Tuesday into Wednesday will produce a warming trend with highs in the mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep layered ridging will continue Wednesday night through Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing. A series of shortwaves will then impact the area late Friday afternoon through early next week, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 20/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstm impacts have ended. A few showers will meander around KSAV through about 01z until the front clears that terminal. MVFR cigs will prevail at all terminals this evening with cigs slowly mixing out to VFR after midnight. VFR will then dominate through 00z Tuesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: The cold front will push south of the southern waters this evening. Northeast winds will dominate through the night with speeds generally 15-20 kt. Observations off the lower South Carolina coast show gusts 25-27 kt, but these may be convectively driven and not necessarily representative of prevailing conditions. The gradient will tighten a bit overnight, so gusts to 25 kt could become common if the gradient tightens more than expected. Conditions were held below Small Craft Advisory levels for now. Seas will build 2-4 ft, except 3-5 ft in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore zone. Monday through Friday: Monday and Monday night, a decent NE gradient is expected as high pressure remains to the north. A few 25 kt wind gusts are possible in the coastal waters, and seas could briefly reach 6 ft over GA offshore waters. The gradient will relax by Tuesday as the surface high moves east and winds turn to the SE. A more typical summer wind pattern will set up for mid to late week with daily sea breezes along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated early this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides Monday through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
