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| #1228362 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:21 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1017 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... No big changes made to the public/marine forecasts with the latest update. Main challenge overnight will be regarding temps as dewpoints/cloud cover remain elevated this evening. Still expect better radiational cooling conditions later tonight with lows generally near 50 inland, except possibly mid 40s in the normally colder spots in Bladen/Pender Counties. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Monday. N-NE winds on the front end will advect dry and cool air into the area with dewpoint temps down in the 40s across much of the area through Mon. Some mid to high clouds will mix with the sun today, but should see plenty of sunshine on Monday. Temps tonight will drop out after sunset with near calm winds leading to lows just below 50 in most spots inland of the coast. Highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with mid to upper 70s. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will start to becoming more onshore with a healthy sea breeze in the afternoon along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through the short term period as mid level ridge is strong over the Southeast, with surface high pressure centered offshore. One more night of below normal temps Monday night with lows in the low 50s (upper 40s in cold spots) due to clear skies and calm winds. Warm and sunny Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. Near normal low temps Tuesday night, thanks to WAA, in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather continues through Thursday as subsidence from ridge aloft maintains influence. Low-level WAA will push temps above normal, in mid to upper 80s during the day and low 60s during the night. Ridge finally breaks down, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and decent mid-level lapse rates leading to increased instability Friday afternoon. Currently have 30-40% pops Friday afternoon and evening for scattered convection. The next cold front is forecasted to move through Friday night into early Saturday as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes/Northeast. Pops linger into Saturday due to uncertainty in front timing and potential delayed arrival of dry air aloft. High pressure attempts to build in from the northwest next weekend, which would lead to (slightly) cooler temps. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Tuesday across SE NC and NE SC as high pressure continues over the area. Light northerly winds tonight will shift east/southeasterly Monday. Just a very low risk for shallow fog overnight, mainly late as radiational cooling conditions improve. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Monday... High pressure will build down from the north through Monday. A N-NE surge has subsided leaving winds manly around 10 kts with some higher gusts. Near shore winds were a bit gustier and more easterly in the aftn sea breeze. As the high shifts more eastward into Mon, the return flow will become more E and onshore with similar fairly light winds except for aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will be around 2-4 ft through Mon with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-advisory marine conditions expected through the end of this week. High pressure just offshore will lead to light onshore flow through Tuesday before shifting to south- southwesterly late Tuesday through Friday. Wind speeds increase to 15-20 kts Thursday afternoon through Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally 2-3 ft through Thursday, increasing to 4 ft Friday, combination of E swell and building S wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several days. Thus, periods of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington during the evening high tides. Minor coastal flooding is also possible along the coast, especially in SC. See the Coastal Flood Advisories for details. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228360 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 949 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will remain at area beaches tonight and through much of this week - Seasonable to above normal temperatures on Monday before slightly "cooler" air on Tuesday - Sensitive fire weather conditions continue this week - Isolated showers this evening west of the Orlando metro. Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) over the interior with occasional lightning strikes && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A little more active today across the northern portion of CWA this afternoon and early evening. A lightning storm developed just to our north over Marion County in the late afternoon that shifted eastward into northern Lake/Volusia counties, with additional showers developing in Lake and Orange counties along the sea breeze. Activity has since dissipated, with mostly quiet conditions on the KMLB radar this evening. Took out lightning storm chances across the north this evening as the showers to our north dissipate. However, conditions remain favorable for lightning storms to develop over the Atlantic waters later tonight, so have kept isolated lightning storm chances across the Atlantic waters around sunrise on Monday. Paired back the rain chances to just off the Volusia coast late tonight to account for model updates. Otherwise, expect dry conditions across east central Florida through tonight. E/ESE winds will continue to prevail, with speeds generally 10 mph or less. Temperatures will be seasonable with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to the rain and lightning storm chances overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Currently-Monday...Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida except for an isolated shower over northeastern Lake county. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies. A weak "cool" front is situated over the western Atlantic and southeastern US to the north of east central Florida which extends from low pressure (~1002mb) near the Maine coast. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to upper 80s near the coast and in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees inland to the west of I-95. Dew points are in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally from the east-southeast at 4-12mph. Mostly dry weather is expected to continue through tonight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop over portions of Lake, northern Volusia, western Seminole, and western Orange county into the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 4PM-9PM) as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are forecast over the interior west of I-95 with the 60s forecast near the coast under partly cloudy skies. Rain shower (PoPs ~20-50%) and lightning storm chances (20%) increase into the day on Monday as moisture increases (PWATs ~1.40-1.70") over east central Florida as the aforementioned "cool" front gradually moves south over north Florida and the east central Florida Atlantic waters. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop Monday morning near the Volusia and northern Brevard county coasts. Rain showers and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage west- southwest of Volusia and northern Brevard counties into the afternoon on Monday as east-southeast winds converge with the west coast sea breeze over west central Florida. The highest potential for rain and storms during the day on Monday is to the north of Cocoa Beach to Lake Kissimmee before rain shower (PoPs ~20-30%) and storm chances increase near the coast Monday night into Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. East winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into the afternoon. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s over the interior to the west of I-95. Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure (~1028mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic to the northeast of east central Florida into Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered (PoPs ~20-30%) onshore-moving showers are forecast Tuesday morning and into the afternoon with onshore flow in place and PWATs between 1.0-1.5". Drier air is expected midweek with a mid/upper level ridge axis forecast over the southeastern US and the state of Florida on Wednesday with PWATs between 0.70-1.00." East winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast Tuesday morning. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast inland to the west of I-95 with the mid 60s to near 70 degrees forecast near the coast Wednesday morning. Thursday-Saturday...The previously mentioned mid/upper level ridge is expected to weaken and shift east-southeast over the western Atlantic on Thursday before a major shortwave trough is forecast to deepen over the southeastern US Friday into Saturday. Rain chances (PoPs ~20%) return on Friday as the ridge weakens/shifts east and moisture increases with PWAT values in the 1.10-1.50" range on Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~ 20%) are forecast Friday afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze over central Florida with a similar forecast on Saturday (except PoPs ~20-30 on Saturday). Generally, east-southeast winds are expected to increase into Thursday afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Light south-southwest winds are expected to back onshore and increase into Friday and Saturday afternoons with the sea breeze mainly over and to the east of the Orlando metro. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the west of I-95 on Thursday with the mid 80s to low 90s forecast on Friday and Saturday. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast inland to the west of I-95 Thursday morning with the 60s to low 70s forecast near the coast. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast Friday and Saturday mornings. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Currently-Monday... Boating conditions are expected to become poor to hazardous on Monday. A "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east-southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters into the day on Monday. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-60%) generally west to southwest moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning and into the day on Monday. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Generally, east-southeast winds at 6-14kts are forecast to increase into Monday evening at 15-20kts. Seas are forecast to increase into the evening on Monday at 3-5ft with 6 ft forecast over the offshore (20-60nm) waters Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure (~1026mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and into midweek. Isolated generally onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20-40%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Tuesday before rain shower and lightning storm chances decrease into the afternoon. East winds at 12-18kts are forecast on Tuesday before reducing to 10-15kts from the east on Wednesday and from the east-southeast on Thursday. Seas to 3-5ft are expected with up to 6ft forecast over the Gulf Stream Tuesday before seas reduce to 3-5ft on Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR to prevail through most of the TAF. A very low chance for VCSH remains at LEE thru ~01z as the sea breeze moves over the terminal. Patchy BR cannot be ruled out toward daybreak, though probabilities are too low to include at this time. Easterly winds lighten overnight, returning to 9-12 kt Mon. with gusts 15-20 kt as the ECSB moves inland. VCSH was removed from MCO but introduced at LEE, where confidence is higher in SHRA after 20z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Increased moisture across the area on Monday as a weakening front gets pushed across east central Florida as a reinforcing high pressure pushes southeast off the Carolina coast. The increased moisture will support isolated to scattered showers (20-50 percent) and isolated lightning storms (20-30 percent chance) Monday afternoon. The highest potential for storms will be generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday due to the lingering moisture as well as the increasing onshore winds. Due to the lingering moisture, isolated to scattered showers (20-30 percent) are forecast once again Tuesday afternoon in the breezy onshore flow. Lightning storms are not forecast on Tuesday. Drier air will then move in across the area on Wednesday, resulting in no mentionable rain chances. Min RH values will reduce once again to 35-45 percent over the interior on Wednesday. Very warm conditions are forecast Monday, with a slight cool down on Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and low to mid 80s along the coast on Monday. Temperatures decrease slightly on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s, except mid 80s across the far western interior. Smoke dispersion values will good to very good on Monday, and very good to excellent on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 83 68 80 / 10 40 30 20 MCO 67 90 69 82 / 10 30 30 20 MLB 68 83 70 80 / 0 20 30 20 VRB 67 84 69 81 / 0 20 30 20 LEE 67 90 69 85 / 20 50 30 20 SFB 67 88 68 83 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 68 88 69 83 / 10 30 30 20 FPR 66 84 69 80 / 0 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228358 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 911 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns through Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for Tuesday through the latter half of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cool down arrives next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 911 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Mainly clear and cool tonight with upper 30s to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to near 50 in the coastal areas. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is depicting mostly clear skies across the forecast area this evening with the exception of a few high clouds in NE NC and some moving into the western piedmont counties. At the surface, high pressure across the southeastern Great Lakes is slowly sliding down towards the Mid-Atlantic, while an area of low pressure resides just offshore of Maine. Aloft, a trough is moving off of the Atlantic coast and a large ridge is situated across a good portion of the eastern U.S., with flow remaining northwesterly across our area. Surface winds have relaxed considerably this evening as the low transited northeast and the high started building across the area. Land-based observation sites are measuring winds of generally 5 mph or less at this time. The aforementioned surface high will continue to build across our area, keeping winds light and variable overnight. With clear skies and light winds, tonight will feature a great radiational cooling environment. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 30s inland in the MD Eastern Shore counties, and will range between the upper 30s to lower 40s closer to the coast. These low dew points will give temperatures a good amount of room to drop quickly, with some inland areas potentially seeing temperatures as low as the upper 30s. Have decided to lower min temperatures a degree or two further (we were already below guidance) because temperatures have already started to quickly drop since sunset. Areas along the coast will see temperatures in the mid to upper 40s, while most other inland areas will see lower 40s with isolated areas of upper 30s. A cold late April night is on tap for the forecast area tonight! && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. Expect light/calm winds, and dry, mostly clear/sunny conditions to prevail tomorrow, with only a modest increase in afternoon CU on Tuesday (especially along the coast) with developing return flow. A slow moderating temperature trend ensues tomorrow that will persist for much of the week ahead. Look for highs in the mid 70s for most inland areas on Mon, with highs in the low- mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, previously referenced developing return flow brings increasingly breezy conditions on Tuesday, with gusts to ~20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. This will result in afternoon min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Increasingly warm weather is expected for much of the latter half of the week, with highs warming well above climo normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered late afternoon and evening showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed, though staying well to our NNW. Aloft, a highly amplified sub- tropical ridge builds along the east coast through late week, with a shortwave trough lifting NE from the south- central plains Wed into the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough eventually phases with a longwave trough dropping S from the Canadian Prairies and upper midwest on Thu, with that system then crossing to the east coast next weekend and finally kicking that strong cold front through the region late Fri into Sat. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast, while a ridge builds across the central CONUS that will eventually spread east next week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast, allowing for well above normal temps to persist through the latter half of the work week. Highs in the 80s (mid to upper 80s inland) Wed and Thu, with increasing clouds Fri ahead of the frontal passage cooling temps down slightly back into the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and T-Storms are possible both Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings, though with weak, mainly uni- directional shear expected, would anticipate storm timing to be mainly diurnally-driven, lasting from mid to late afternoon to early evening. The strong cold front finally gets pushed through the area on Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs falling back in the 70s for next weekend, with lows back into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. High pressure is starting to slide over our area and winds have decreased quickly over the past few hours. SBY still has an occasional lingering gust, but those should diminish in the next hour. Light northerly winds are expected overnight and will likely become variable at times. Winds will then shift to the northeast tomorrow morning before becoming easterly by tomorrow afternoon. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this period, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by later Wednesday and Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this afternoon/evening as NW winds slowly diminish behind a cold front. - Calmer conditions return tonight through the first half of Tuesday. - Additional SCAs increasingly possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night. NW winds are gradually subsiding this afternoon as low pressure moves through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 4 PM for the coastal waters, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Rappahannock River and through 7 PM for the upper Chesapeake Bay. Headlines were cancelled for the York and James Rivers and Currituck Sound late this morning. Winds turn to the N at 10-15 kt tonight and become light/variable Monday as high pressure settles over the region. The high shifts offshore for the middle of the week, with S-SW winds expected for most of the Tuesday-Friday timeframe. SCAs are looking likely later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a belt of stronger winds aloft move over ahead of a weakening cold front, with probs for sustained winds >18 kt 50-80% on the Chesapeake Bay and 80- 100% on the coastal waters. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wednesday through Thursday, with SCAs again possible Friday as another cold front approaches the waters. 2-3 ft waves on the Chesapeake Bay diminish to 1-2 ft Monday- Tuesday, with 3-4 ft seas today becoming ~2 ft Monday-Tuesday. Waves/seas increase to 3-4 ft Tuesday night, though there is some potential for the northern coastal waters to touch 5 ft. Waves/seas again subside Wednesday into Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228359 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 908 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 As the sea breeze marches its way inland combined with diurnal afternoon heating, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon, mostly along and north of I-10. Most showers and storms will fade after sunset. However, as a backdoor cold front begins approaching our area from the northeast, a few lingering showers and maybe an isolated storm are possible in the far northeastern parts of our area (Turner, Ben Hill, and Irwin Counties) during the overnight hours. Otherwise, yet another round of fog is expected tonight across the Alabama and Florida counties. Some of the fog in the Panhandle, just like the last few mornings, could be dense in spots. Lows will be in the 60s. The backdoor cold front will continue to slide southwestward farther into our area Monday. Isolated showers and storms will develop along the front over south central Georgia during the late morning before colliding with the sea breeze boundaries. Thus, the greatest focus for showers and storms will be along the I-75 corridor eastward into the Big Bend. PWATs increase slightly to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, which may result in better coverage of showers and storms, even in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama where storms will be more forced by the sea breeze. Rain chances are higher than recent days with about a 30-60% chance for most places. Regarding the strength of storms, some strong storms are possible given deep-layer shear of about 20 kt and plenty of instability. DCAPE values aren`t particularly high, but they`re non-negligible around 700-800 J/kg. Thus, the main hazards with tomorrow`s storms will be strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning. Highs will have a large gradient across the area. Temperatures will reach the low 80s in the northernmost areas up to the low 90s in interior parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Above average temperatures and humid weather continues over the next several days, with the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with the sea breeze and again Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches. Fog potential is less certain each morning. Fog potential will be tempered to patchy on Tuesday morning due to elevated easterly winds, but should be greater by Wednesday morning as winds relax. Meanwhile, the east coast sea breeze should pool enough moisture for scattered showers Tuesday afternoon and evening with a thunderstorm possible, although instability is fairly scant. The region will be more under the influence of the ridge in the Southwest Atlantic on both Wednesday and Thursday, with mainly dry weather expected. A cold front approaches on Friday and leads to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. Instability and shear may support some strong storms with gusty winds on Friday, especially north-west of the FL Big Bend. The front looks to slow as it becomes more parallel to the mid-level flow, which may keep diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into next weekend, at least Saturday. With that, it`s also questionable if those more comfortable dew points make it southward into the region this weekend, especially the FL Counties. Highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day away from the gulf coast through Friday, with dew points in the mid-60s (overnight lows), which is very warm and humid for late April. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 906 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Another round of fog is expected tonight at ECP and TLH with DHN on the fringe with MVFR vsbys to start. Some of the fog could be dense again near ECP, which is accounted for in a TEMPO group. Meanwhile, an IFR stratus deck will move in from the northeast to ABY, DHN, and VLD late tonight into early Monday. Isolated TSRA will begin develop near VLD after 18z, which is accounted for in a TEMPO group. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The coastal waters will be increasingly under the influence of a ridge of high pressure over the southwest Atlantic with east to southeast winds that will become fresh each night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, winds closer to the gulf coast will become onshore each day due to the sea breeze. On Thursday and Friday, winds turn more southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1 to 2 feet, except a bit higher at times over the offshore waters and near the inlets. Morning fog is also possible near the protected waters through at least Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Generally south to southeast transport winds around 5-15 mph are expected over the next several days. This combined with generally high mixing height will result in good dispersions each afternoon through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the area Monday late morning into the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms remain possible on Tuesday with mostly dry weather on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning. Patchy fog is expected across the area over the next few nights. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 No flooding is expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 89 66 86 / 10 50 20 30 Panama City 67 86 68 84 / 0 30 10 10 Dothan 66 87 66 87 / 20 40 30 30 Albany 66 83 65 86 / 30 40 20 10 Valdosta 67 87 66 87 / 20 60 30 20 Cross City 64 90 64 86 / 0 60 30 20 Apalachicola 67 81 70 79 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228356 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:54 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 841 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Showers and isolated storms will continue through tonight and into Monday morning. No major changes to the forecast at this time, with some adjustments to PoPs and weather grids. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The backdoor cold front that we have been monitoring recently is forecast to continue to drop southward from South Carolina and GA waters southward into southeast GA and northeast FL through tonight. Low level flow will transition to east to northeast over all the zones by late tonight due to the front and the effects of the east coast sea breeze. As far as temps rest of today, inland temps will get into the lower 90s, with coastal areas more so in the mid 80s. The orientation of the front and the associated increase in moisture and instability will lead to enhanced rain chances for showers and isolated developing storms across southeast GA and into far northeast parts of our FL zones through tonight. Recent radar confirms some initial development of isolated showers near the Altamaha River Basin at 2 PM. Chances for a few thunderstorms will be across southeast GA late aftn and this evening, more especially, as instability is better there. As the airmass cools later tonight the chance for thunder will transition more over the coastal land zones as well as the marine zones. Specifically, after midnight, the better instability for shower and a few storms will be from about St Augustine northward to Jekyll Island and inland as far as Charlton, Ware, and Brantley counties. The thunderstorm threats are mainly heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and some small hail. Lows tonight will inch up compared to the past few days in the mid 60s inland to around lower 70s coast. Some patchy fog possible late tonight across Putnam, Marion, Alachua, and Gilchrist counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwest to southeast oriented front will lay out across SE GA Monday morning, then slowly move southwest across forecast area through the day. The front will be across the I75 corridor later in the afternoon. This front will be the focus for convection as it move across area Monday. At this time the best chances for precipitation will be over SE GA in the morning, then over the I75 corridor in the afternoon and evening. With diurnal heating peaking as the front moves across the I75 corridor, this convection could become strong with heavy rains. A broad range in temperatures is expected Monday due to the northeast to southeast moving boundary. Highs along the coast in the upper 70s to around 80 will be common, while highs over inland NE FL will rise to near 90. As high pressure builds to the northeast Monday night, the front will push out of the area. Convection will dissipate Monday evening with loss of diurnal heating. Above normal lows forecast for Monday night. High pressure will be centered to the northeast Tuesday. Convection is possible inland toward the I75 corridor in the afternoon due to diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions. Highs Tuesday will be above normal. High pressure centered to the east northeast will continue to provide ridging across the area into Tuesday night. Near normal low for Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will remain centered to the east northeast Wednesday, then more toward the east Thursday providing for a stretch of dry weather. The high will begin to move to the southeast Friday, as a trough moves southeast across SE GA. A few showers and storms, mainly north of I10 will develop in response to the trough. The high will continue to move away to the southeast Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Saturday. Storms are expected to develop across the area in response to the front and diurnal instability. The front will sink south of the area Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures this period will trend above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 811 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions at most locations except for MVFR at SSI. Showers are will continue to form over the next few hours. Chances for scattered showers and a few t-storms expected around the terminals through 05Z mainly focusing on SSI, CRG and JAX but are less than 30%, so have left as VCSH. Ceilings are expected to continue to lower over night, coming down to 1,500 ft at most location as a scattered deck with exception for SSI with a broken ceiling around 05Z. Surface winds continue out of the east through the period with chances for rain and a few storms increasing into the afternoon lowering conditions to MVFR at most sites by 18-20Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Backdoor front will move into the northern forecast waters later today while drifting southward and into northeast FL by Monday. Increased east to northeast winds and building seas expected, with winds of about 15 kt. SCEC conditions look to be over most of the waters by midday Monday. Looks like winds will ease by Tuesday while seas still remain somewhat elevated due to long fetch of easterly winds. Peak in the sea state looks to be Monday into Monday night, moved up by 24 hours per guidance. The nearly stationary front should decay on Tuesday over northern FL. The high pressure ridge axis will then slowly shift south of the local waters by mid to late with winds shifting and increasing to southerly flow again on Thursday/Friday. Rip Currents: Onshore flow and surf near 2-4 ft, abnormally lower low tides continue to support a high risk of rip currents at area beaches through Monday. In in doubt, don`t go out. Elevated risk moderate risk, at least, remains on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SUN 4/27 JAX 94 (1986) GNV 96 (2011) AMG96 (1986) CRG93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 80 62 83 / 40 40 10 10 SSI 69 77 69 78 / 50 50 10 0 JAX 67 82 65 82 / 30 30 10 10 SGJ 68 81 67 80 / 30 30 10 10 GNV 64 89 64 85 / 10 60 40 20 OCF 64 90 66 86 / 10 80 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228355 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 823 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through at least Thursday, with a cold front to impact the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... This evening: Radar imagery shows that ongoing strong convection is mostly limited to just outside the forecast area with a potentially severe storm in Toombs County and other strong storms in Wayne County. These storms are developing on the backside of the cold front that pushed through, enhanced by the interaction with the sea breeze as it passed through. We will likely continue to see isolated to scattered convection continue to develop across southeast GA, along and near the Altamaha River through the evening and overnight. This will be driven and maintained by an approaching shortwave trough aloft, combined with the cold front in the vicinity. With the loss of diurnal heating we expect the evening and overnight convective activity to be on the weaker side, with no real severe weather threat. The forecast features rain chances as high as 30-50 percent along the Altamaha to account for this activity. The rest of the forecast area will remain dry. Temperatures are expected to be coolest across southeast SC, with mid to upper 50s away from the coast. For southeast GA, low to mid 60s will be more common. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday: The remnant front and associated baroclinic zone will lie not far to the south of the Altamaha River, as high pressure to the north pushes more to the southeast rather than the south. This keeps the front not too far through most of the day. Weak isentropic ascent north of the front, low level convergence, and sufficient moisture up to about 500 mb will support the risk for some rainfall over southeast Georgia. Guidance varies on the northern extent of this activity, with the global models a bit more aggressive and further north than the HREF and HRRR. For now we went more with a blend of the Hi- Res and NBM. This supports isolated to scattered showers, mainly to the south of I-16. There isn`t much evidence for t-storms with poor low level lapse rates and limited instability. But to maintain consistency with the previous forecast and to blend with WFO JAX and FFC, we do hold onto mention of such. Combining a blend of the low level thickness forecast (offset some by the onshore flow) and the various MOS and NBM guidance, we arrive at highs in the upper 70s to near 80F away from the cooler beaches. Monday night: The front eventually washes out as high pressure nudges further into the local communities. This forces the better moisture to the south, and with ridging aloft to build in, any convection should have ended by sunset. It look to be enough decoupling of winds to cause a decent radiational cooling away from the coast. This in turn will allow for a cool night across inland sections of South Carolina and far interior Georgia. The coolest spots will be 52-54F in Berkeley, Dorchester and Colleton County, and parts of Charleston County north of Mt. Pleasant. Warmest sections will be coastal locations, and in downtown Savannah, and the Charleston metro, down in the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday: Ridging aloft and Atlantic high pressure at the surface and lower levels will negate any potential for any convection. One possible exception might be far interior Georgia late Tuesday, where the sea breeze and a greater amount of low level moisture convergence could spur a few showers. Given the large scale subsidence and poor instability, we maintain a rainfree forecast. As 850 mb temperatures climb to 12-13C Tuesday, and 13-14C Wednesday, afternoon highs warm a few degrees each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging aloft breaks down later in the week, first as a short wave brushes nearby Thursday night into Friday, then as a more prominent trough aloft and associated height falls moves in Friday night into Saturday. This will send a cold front into the area at some point late in the week/early weekend, with the next risk for showers and t- storms. MLCAPE isn`t that impressive per latest guidance, but it is worth noting that the CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Guidance has 5 and 10% probabilities of severe weather with that front. It`ll remain warm ahead of the front, with some potential for 90F far interior Georgia when 850 mb temperatures peak at 15-16C. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are expected to periodically develop across southeast GA through the evening and overnight hours. However, this activity should remain mostly west and southwest of KSAV. Otherwise, there are no significant concerns. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... This evening and tonight: Surge of NE winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts across the Atlantic waters into this evening. Conditions should improve from north to south this evening, with SCAs ending across the SC waters between 8-10 PM and the GA waters by midnight. Winds for the rest of the night will remain from the east-northeast between 10-15 kts. Seas are forecast to range from 3 to 5 ft through tonight. Monday: The remnants of the cold front will be not too far to the south, as high pressure expands across the waters from the north and northeast. There is the potential for some 6 foot seas to edge into the outer Georgia waters, but not enough coverage to hoist a Small Craft Advisory. There will be a few showers and potential t-storms on the Georgia waters. Monday night through Thursday night: High pressure in the main feature, keeping winds and seas well beneath any advisory thresholds. It`ll also prevent any convection from occurring. Friday and Friday night: The next cold front could approach, maybe with some t-storms. But winds and seas remain less than 15 kt and 5 feet, respectively. Rip Currents: The local Rip Current Calculator is showing a solid Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Monday, due to astronomical influences, modest onshore winds, and small swells. However, if winds are just a tad higher, and/or there is a 9 second period swell rather than 8 seconds, we could require another High Risk. Conditions look to be Moderate for Tuesday as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As we near high tide (~8:30 pm) tide levels at both Charleston and Fort Pulaski are running well above forecast. We have increased the Charleston forecast to 7.8 ft MLLW, and bumped Fort Pulaski up to 9.9 ft MLLW. The risk for at least minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides will persist into Tuesday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ354-374. && $$ |
| #1228354 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 809 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery conditions continue into tonight and skies clear. High pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday. Dry and mild conditions continue Tuesday, but a cold front arrives mid week. After a few showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. A more prolonged period with a chance for showers late this week as a low pressure passes nearby. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Messages... * Gusty winds continue through this evening * Skies clear overnight Tweaked timing of cloud cover and diminishing winds. The gusty winds of 30-40 mph should diminish through 10 PM. Otherwise, clearing skies overnight. Previous Discussion... Winds gusting to 35 mph -- and up to 45 mph in the higher terrain -- before the sun goes down tonight, then they will begin to drop off. Breezy conditions are expected to persist overnight and winds shift to the northwest. The cold pool aloft will move east going into Monday morning and a milder airmass will begin to make its approach, raising 925 mb temperatures back up to near 10C and 850 mb temperatures around 5C. The clouds will exit with the colder airmass. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Dry and warm with little wind High pressure shifts over the region along with mid-level ridging, which will stop the wind and increase temperatures. The milder airmass moves in, and daytime mixing will aid in warming the surface. The high`s center will sit to our south, leading to winds shifting more S to SW and WAA also increasing temperatures at the surface. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 70s, with the Cape and Islands slightly cooler in the low to mid 60s. Winds are expected to calm Monday night, and along with clear skies, radiational cooling will likely take hold. Continued to blend CONSMOS guidance in to account for the cooler low temperatures in areas known to radiate well. Lows in these areas (Martha`s Vineyard, parts of the interior, and areas along the I-495 corridor) will likely dip in to the low 40s. Elsewhere, expect lows in the lower 50s and upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry conditions Tuesday. Few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. * Near seasonable temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. While Thursday is dry, rain chances return for Friday into Saturday. Expecting mainly above normal temperatures for this portion of the forecast. Although temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday should be closer to normal for early May due to a high pressure moving across northern New England. Another period of near normal temperatures is possible next Sunday as another high pressure should be approaching our region. Mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday. There is a low risk for a few showers ahead of a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, this front is somewhat moisture-starved. Clouds are likely to be more prevalent than showers. Where it does rain, rainfall generally no more than a few hundredths. A greater risk for rainfall is anticipated for a period or two between Thursday night and Saturday night. This is when we should see a low pressure move across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence River valley. The fronts associated with this low pressure will take some time to clear southern New England. The warm front is more Thursday night into Friday, with a cold front passage more Friday night into Saturday. A secondary cold front my cross our region Saturday night as well. Not thinking this entire period will be a washout, but we will need to keep an eye out for some wet weather at times. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts. Earlier gusts to 30-35 kt this evening will drop off overnight, ranging to around 25 kt. Monday and Monday Night: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts less than 15 kt before 18z. Winds shift W to SW before going calm across much of the region. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Monday... NW winds will continue to gust to 30 kt tonight with seas at 3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue tonight through tomorrow morning before winds start to drop off during the day with the arrival of high pressure. Monday Night... Seas will recede heading into Monday night, with heights only up to 3 ft. Winds shift from NW to SW. Winds to 10 kt will be possible over the waters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1228353 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 812 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The backdoor cold front that we have been monitoring recently is forecast to continue to drop southward from South Carolina and GA waters southward into southeast GA and northeast FL through tonight. Low level flow will transition to east to northeast over all the zones by late tonight due to the front and the effects of the east coast sea breeze. As far as temps rest of today, inland temps will get into the lower 90s, with coastal areas more so in the mid 80s. The orientation of the front and the associated increase in moisture and instability will lead to enhanced rain chances for showers and isolated developing storms across southeast GA and into far northeast parts of our FL zones through tonight. Recent radar confirms some initial development of isolated showers near the Altamaha River Basin at 2 PM. Chances for a few thunderstorms will be across southeast GA late aftn and this evening, more especially, as instability is better there. As the airmass cools later tonight the chance for thunder will transition more over the coastal land zones as well as the marine zones. Specifically, after midnight, the better instability for shower and a few storms will be from about St Augustine northward to Jekyll Island and inland as far as Charlton, Ware, and Brantley counties. The thunderstorm threats are mainly heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and some small hail. Lows tonight will inch up compared to the past few days in the mid 60s inland to around lower 70s coast. Some patchy fog possible late tonight across Putnam, Marion, Alachua, and Gilchrist counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwest to southeast oriented front will lay out across SE GA Monday morning, then slowly move southwest across forecast area through the day. The front will be across the I75 corridor later in the afternoon. This front will be the focus for convection as it move across area Monday. At this time the best chances for precipitation will be over SE GA in the morning, then over the I75 corridor in the afternoon and evening. With diurnal heating peaking as the front moves across the I75 corridor, this convection could become strong with heavy rains. A broad range in temperatures is expected Monday due to the northeast to southeast moving boundary. Highs along the coast in the upper 70s to around 80 will be common, while highs over inland NE FL will rise to near 90. As high pressure builds to the northeast Monday night, the front will push out of the area. Convection will dissipate Monday evening with loss of diurnal heating. Above normal lows forecast for Monday night. High pressure will be centered to the northeast Tuesday. Convection is possible inland toward the I75 corridor in the afternoon due to diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions. Highs Tuesday will be above normal. High pressure centered to the east northeast will continue to provide ridging across the area into Tuesday night. Near normal low for Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will remain centered to the east northeast Wednesday, then more toward the east Thursday providing for a stretch of dry weather. The high will begin to move to the southeast Friday, as a trough moves southeast across SE GA. A few showers and storms, mainly north of I10 will develop in response to the trough. The high will continue to move away to the southeast Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Saturday. Storms are expected to develop across the area in response to the front and diurnal instability. The front will sink south of the area Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures this period will trend above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 811 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions at most locations except for MVFR at SSI. Showers are will continue to form over the next few hours. Chances for scattered showers and a few t-storms expected around the terminals through 05Z mainly focusing on SSI, CRG and JAX but are less than 30%, so have left as VCSH. Ceilings are expected to continue to lower over night, coming down to 1,500 ft at most location as a scattered deck with exception for SSI with a broken ceiling around 05Z. Surface winds continue out of the east through the period with chances for rain and a few storms increasing into the afternoon lowering conditions to MVFR at most sites by 18-20Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Backdoor front will move into the northern forecast waters later today while drifting southward and into northeast FL by Monday. Increased east to northeast winds and building seas expected, with winds of about 15 kt. SCEC conditions look to be over most of the waters by midday Monday. Looks like winds will ease by Tuesday while seas still remain somewhat elevated due to long fetch of easterly winds. Peak in the sea state looks to be Monday into Monday night, moved up by 24 hours per guidance. The nearly stationary front should decay on Tuesday over northern FL. The high pressure ridge axis will then slowly shift south of the local waters by mid to late with winds shifting and increasing to southerly flow again on Thursday/Friday. Rip Currents: Onshore flow and surf near 2-4 ft, abnormally lower low tides continue to support a high risk of rip currents at area beaches through Monday. In in doubt, don`t go out. Elevated risk moderate risk, at least, remains on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SUN 4/27 JAX 94 (1986) GNV 96 (2011) AMG96 (1986) CRG93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 80 62 83 / 40 40 10 10 SSI 69 77 69 78 / 50 50 10 0 JAX 67 82 65 82 / 30 30 10 10 SGJ 68 81 67 80 / 30 30 10 10 GNV 64 89 64 85 / 10 60 40 20 OCF 65 90 66 86 / 10 80 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228352 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 807 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure builds in tonight through tomorrow. By Tuesday, high pressure shifts offshore and will remain anchored there into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 730 PM Sunday... A 1022mb SFC high was centered over central NC, with a wavy frontal boundary located well to the south across Alabama and Georgia. To the north, a secondary front was progressing south through the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Locally, temperatures have been slower to fall than originally forecast. This is likely due to a light northerly flow still ongoing across the area plus widespread mid and high level cloudiness. Forecast guidance suggests this cloudcover will linger for much of the night. Therefore, despite high pressure being overhead, conditions may not end up as ideal for good radiational cooling. In light of this I trended temperatures a bit higher for tonight compared to the previous forecast. The forecast will still reflect a widespread area of 40s inland tonight, but perhaps there will be less of a chance of falling into the lower 40s. The only other change was to add areas of smoke to parts of coastal Onslow County and western Carteret County. A fire burning in this area has produced a lot of smoke today, and this is expected to settle into surrounding areas through the night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Sun...Upper level ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. The surface ridge to the north will slowly drift to east producing an onshore NE to E flow with skies remaining mostly clear. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Monday night into the weekend...Upper level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast into the end of the workweek with a weak upper trough passing by well to the north around midweek. At the surface, high pressure ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and gradually push offshore by Tue morning with this ridge remaining centered offshore into the end of the week as well. As a result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with SW`rly flow developing by Tuesday allowing for a WAA regime to set up across Carolinas. Lows will be in the in the 50s Mon night. By Tuesday low level thicknesses increase under the WAA regime supporting highs in the 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX and coast. As we get into Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated surface cold front stalling in Virginia with previously mentioned surface high settling in across the Sargasso Sea. This will keep the area under a WAA regime increasing temps even further into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX. The stalled front to the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening, though latest trends in forecast and ensemble guidance has shown a noticeable drying trend. So while we currently have PoP`s in the forecast won`t be surprised if we end up precip free on Wed. Beyond mid week, upper ridging finally pushes offshore with the approach of an upper trough coming in from the north and west. At the surface this will spawn a surface low in the Plains which will track NE`wards with its associated cold front pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Fri and Sat bringing our next potential threat for some unsettled weather. Currently have high end Chc PoP`s in place Fri afternoon and wont be surprised given current trends if we see likely PoPs across the area within the next few days. Some of the AI and ML severe products are hinting at some potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop with this front as well so will have to monitor this potential as we get closer to the weekend. Temps remain slightly above avg into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Tuesday/... As of 730 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs A light north to northeast wind will continue across ENC for the remainder of the evening. Overnight into early Monday morning, the flow will become more northeast to east as a weak cold front slides south along the coast of NC. At this time, I am not expecting much fanfare with that front, although gusts up to 20kt may occur along the immediate coast (KFFA, KHSE). By the late afternoon, a developing, but weak, seabreeze should push inland, leading to more of a southeasterly wind at KOAJ and KEWN prior to sunset. Lastly, a small area in the vicinity of KNJM may see reductions of VIS to 5- 7SM due to smoke from an ongoing fire in the area. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging builds overhead and gradually pushes offshore through midweek bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 730 PM Sunday... Winds have laid down below 25kt for all ENC waters, and seas are below 6 ft. In light of this, the Small Craft Advisory that was previously in effect has been allowed to expire. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to build over the waters through Mon with N to NE flow prevailing. Current winds 10-20 kt late this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 kt this evening then increase to around 15 kt after midnight. Wind speeds should diminish again to 5-10 kt Mon afternoon while becoming more easterly. Seas are forecast to subside to 2-4 ft most waters overnight and Mon with 5 footers persisting over the outer central waters. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure will remain in control for the most part through the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions into about midweek or so. Winds will continue 5-10 kts Tue as high pressure builds overhead and pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to an E then SE then S`rly direction. Seas along our coastal waters will continue 2-4 ft. On Wed with the approach of a cold front, winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts coming from the SW with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW`rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228350 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 759 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will remain at area beaches tonight and through much of this week - Seasonable to above normal temperatures on Monday before slightly "cooler" air on Tuesday - Sensitive fire weather conditions continue this week - Isolated showers this evening west of the Orlando metro. Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) over the interior with occasional lightning strikes && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Currently-Monday...Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida except for an isolated shower over northeastern Lake county. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies. A weak "cool" front is situated over the western Atlantic and southeastern US to the north of east central Florida which extends from low pressure (~1002mb) near the Maine coast. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to upper 80s near the coast and in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees inland to the west of I-95. Dew points are in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally from the east-southeast at 4-12mph. Mostly dry weather is expected to continue through tonight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop over portions of Lake, northern Volusia, western Seminole, and western Orange county into the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 4PM-9PM) as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are forecast over the interior west of I-95 with the 60s forecast near the coast under partly cloudy skies. Rain shower (PoPs ~20-50%) and lightning storm chances (20%) increase into the day on Monday as moisture increases (PWATs ~1.40-1.70") over east central Florida as the aforementioned "cool" front gradually moves south over north Florida and the east central Florida Atlantic waters. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop Monday morning near the Volusia and northern Brevard county coasts. Rain showers and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage west- southwest of Volusia and northern Brevard counties into the afternoon on Monday as east-southeast winds converge with the west coast sea breeze over west central Florida. The highest potential for rain and storms during the day on Monday is to the north of Cocoa Beach to Lake Kissimmee before rain shower (PoPs ~20-30%) and storm chances increase near the coast Monday night into Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. East winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into the afternoon. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s over the interior to the west of I-95. Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure (~1028mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic to the northeast of east central Florida into Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered (PoPs ~20-30%) onshore-moving showers are forecast Tuesday morning and into the afternoon with onshore flow in place and PWATs between 1.0-1.5". Drier air is expected midweek with a mid/upper level ridge axis forecast over the southeastern US and the state of Florida on Wednesday with PWATs between 0.70-1.00." East winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast Tuesday morning. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast inland to the west of I-95 with the mid 60s to near 70 degrees forecast near the coast Wednesday morning. Thursday-Saturday...The previously mentioned mid/upper level ridge is expected to weaken and shift east-southeast over the western Atlantic on Thursday before a major shortwave trough is forecast to deepen over the southeastern US Friday into Saturday. Rain chances (PoPs ~20%) return on Friday as the ridge weakens/shifts east and moisture increases with PWAT values in the 1.10-1.50" range on Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~ 20%) are forecast Friday afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze over central Florida with a similar forecast on Saturday (except PoPs ~20-30 on Saturday). Generally, east-southeast winds are expected to increase into Thursday afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Light south-southwest winds are expected to back onshore and increase into Friday and Saturday afternoons with the sea breeze mainly over and to the east of the Orlando metro. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the west of I-95 on Thursday with the mid 80s to low 90s forecast on Friday and Saturday. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast inland to the west of I-95 Thursday morning with the 60s to low 70s forecast near the coast. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast Friday and Saturday mornings. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Currently-Monday... Boating conditions are expected to become poor to hazardous on Monday. A "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east-southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters into the day on Monday. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-60%) generally west to southwest moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning and into the day on Monday. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Generally, east-southeast winds at 6-14kts are forecast to increase into Monday evening at 15-20kts. Seas are forecast to increase into the evening on Monday at 3-5ft with 6 ft forecast over the offshore (20-60nm) waters Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure (~1026mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and into midweek. Isolated generally onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20-40%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Tuesday before rain shower and lightning storm chances decrease into the afternoon. East winds at 12-18kts are forecast on Tuesday before reducing to 10-15kts from the east on Wednesday and from the east-southeast on Thursday. Seas to 3-5ft are expected with up to 6ft forecast over the Gulf Stream Tuesday before seas reduce to 3-5ft on Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR to prevail through most of the TAF. A very low chance for VCSH remains at LEE thru ~01z as the sea breeze moves over the terminal. Patchy BR cannot be ruled out toward daybreak, though probabilities are too low to include at this time. Easterly winds lighten overnight, returning to 9-12 kt Mon. with gusts 15-20 kt as the ECSB moves inland. VCSH was removed from MCO but introduced at LEE, where confidence is higher in SHRA after 20z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Increased moisture across the area on Monday as a weakening front gets pushed across east central Florida as a reinforcing high pressure pushes southeast off the Carolina coast. The increased moisture will support isolated to scattered showers (20-50 percent) and isolated lightning storms (20-30 percent chance) Monday afternoon. The highest potential for storms will be generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday due to the lingering moisture as well as the increasing onshore winds. Due to the lingering moisture, isolated to scattered showers (20-30 percent) are forecast once again Tuesday afternoon in the breezy onshore flow. Lightning storms are not forecast on Tuesday. Drier air will then move in across the area on Wednesday, resulting in no mentionable rain chances. Min RH values will reduce once again to 35-45 percent over the interior on Wednesday. Very warm conditions are forecast Monday, with a slight cool down on Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and low to mid 80s along the coast on Monday. Temperatures decrease slightly on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s, except mid 80s across the far western interior. Smoke dispersion values will good to very good on Monday, and very good to excellent on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 83 68 80 / 20 40 30 20 MCO 67 90 69 82 / 10 30 30 20 MLB 65 83 70 80 / 0 20 30 20 VRB 62 84 69 81 / 0 20 30 20 LEE 69 90 69 85 / 20 50 30 20 SFB 68 88 68 83 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 69 88 69 83 / 10 30 30 20 FPR 62 84 69 80 / 0 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228347 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 737 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... No big changes made to the public/marine forecasts, although did lower temps down a bit tonight with decent radiational cooling conditions expected later tonight. Should see below normal lows in the upper 40s for most inland areas, especially in NC where mid 40s are possible, especially in the normally colder spots in Pender County like Holly Shelter. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Monday. N-NE winds on the front end will advect dry and cool air into the area with dewpoint temps down in the 40s across much of the area through Mon. Some mid to high clouds will mix with the sun today, but should see plenty of sunshine on Monday. Temps tonight will drop out after sunset with near calm winds leading to lows just below 50 in most spots inland of the coast. Highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with mid to upper 70s. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will start to becoming more onshore with a healthy sea breeze in the afternoon along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through the short term period as mid level ridge is strong over the Southeast, with surface high pressure centered offshore. One more night of below normal temps Monday night with lows in the low 50s (upper 40s in cold spots) due to clear skies and calm winds. Warm and sunny Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. Near normal low temps Tuesday night, thanks to WAA, in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather continues through Thursday as subsidence from ridge aloft maintains influence. Low-level WAA will push temps above normal, in mid to upper 80s during the day and low 60s during the night. Ridge finally breaks down, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and decent mid-level lapse rates leading to increased instability Friday afternoon. Currently have 30-40% pops Friday afternoon and evening for scattered convection. The next cold front is forecasted to move through Friday night into early Saturday as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes/Northeast. Pops linger into Saturday due to uncertainty in front timing and potential delayed arrival of dry air aloft. High pressure attempts to build in from the northwest next weekend, which would lead to (slightly) cooler temps. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Tuesday across SE NC and NE SC as high pressure continues over the area. Light northerly winds tonight will shift east/southeasterly Monday. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Monday... High pressure will build down from the north through Monday. A N-NE surge has subsided leaving winds manly around 10 kts with some higher gusts. Near shore winds were a bit gustier and more easterly in the aftn sea breeze. As the high shifts more eastward into Mon, the return flow will become more E and onshore with similar fairly light winds except for aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will be around 2-4 ft through Mon with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-advisory marine conditions expected through the end of this week. High pressure just offshore will lead to light onshore flow through Tuesday before shifting to south- southwesterly late Tuesday through Friday. Wind speeds increase to 15-20 kts Thursday afternoon through Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally 2-3 ft through Thursday, increasing to 4 ft Friday, combination of E swell and building S wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several days. Thus, periods of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington during the evening high tides. Minor coastal flooding is also possible along the coast, especially in SC. See the Coastal Flood Advisories for details. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228346 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 734 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 726 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The dry conditions will continue to remain in place across the region tonight as high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across South Florida. With winds diminishing overnight combined with a mainly clear sky, there will be just enough lower level moisture in place to support the possibility of patchy fog development over interior portions of Southwest Florida late tonight into early Monday morning. Any fog that does develop will lift shortly after sunrise on Monday morning. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 South Florida remains situated between a dipole of surface ridging today, with a ridge axis present in the Gulf in conjunction with a separate foci in the western Atlantic. Not much more exciting when looking aloft as there is a lack of synoptic forcing across the region with quite the stagnant vertical column in place. This morning`s 12Z sounding and the latest model soundings show the continuance of a stout mid-level subsidence inversion that will continue to stifle any real rain chances (outside of a few shallow- layer stray isolated showers advecting into the east coast metro areas via easterly flow). Given the lack of any synoptic influence aloft, the mesoscale will dictate the weather regime once again today with winds veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out an isolated shower this afternoon along the gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida but overall rain chances remain lackluster. The amplification of a deep-layer ridge across the southeastern United States on Monday will slow the progression of a backdoor frontal boundary propagating southwestward across the Florida Peninsula occurring in tandem with a weak upper level shortwave ridge-riding. With the weak boundary on our doorstep, periphery moisture associated with the frontal boundary in tandem with diurnal heating and convergence (localized ascent along the gulf breeze boundary) could set the stage for a few isolated showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida. There will still be considerable amounts of low-level dry air to contend with but if an updraft is able to sustain long enough, forecast model soundings from CAMS such as the HRRR, RAFS, and RAP show enough marginal instability to get a thunderstorm going across inland southwestern Florida. Given how dry the vegetation has become across our area and the isolated nature of any rainfall, any lightning strike could potentially spark new wildfires. High temperatures will be similar this afternoon and once again on Monday. The warmest temperatures are forecast for inland southwestern Florida with widespread high temperatures in the low 90s. Along both the immediate gulf coast as well as the majority of the east coast metro, temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A rinse and repeat weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the work week into the weekend as easterly flow continues and we remain mostly dry. A weak frontal boundary will pass through, or what`s left of it, on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicates a slight rise in moisture (1.4-1.6") and potential for scattered light showers (30- 40%) across South Florida. The additional support of diurnal heating and sea breezes will help build quick-moving light showers during the afternoon. Unfortunately, the WPC QPF forecast is not optimistic about how much rainfall we will receive. Deep-layer ridging will remain established across the western Atlantic waters through the end of the week with light synoptic flow aloft. Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep rainfall to a minimum. Outside of a few shallow-level stray showers, the stretch of dry and warmth will continue with drought conditions continuing to worsen. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 726 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Easterly winds around 10 kts this evening will become light and variable across most terminals overnight. Some patchy fog could develop across the interior overnight but this fog should stay away from the terminals. Winds will increase out the east after 14z Monday and could be gusty at times during the afternoon hours. At KAPF, winds will shift and become WSW in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Easterly winds are expected to remain for the rest of today and into early this week across our local Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic through Monday and a foot or less in the Gulf. Seas will start to rise in the Atlantic for the mid-week period as a moderate to fresh breeze re-develops. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A high risk of rip currents will prevail at Palm Beach county beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents remaining across Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. As easterly flow remains with us for the foreseeable future, the elevated rip current will persist along the east coast for much of this upcoming work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Although winds will remain light across the region this afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just below critical levels (low to mid 30s) across inland southwestern Florida. This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 86 73 82 / 0 10 10 20 West Kendall 68 86 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 71 86 72 84 / 0 10 10 20 Homestead 71 83 73 83 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 83 73 80 / 10 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 72 85 73 81 / 0 10 10 30 Pembroke Pines 72 86 74 86 / 10 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 69 84 71 81 / 0 10 20 30 Boca Raton 71 83 72 82 / 0 10 20 30 Naples 68 88 68 88 / 0 10 0 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228345 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 735 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns through Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for Tuesday through the latter half of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cool down arrives next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Breezy this afternoon with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. - Mainly clear and cool tonight with upper 30s to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s coastal areas. Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s inland, with highs in the lower 70s still looking good inland, with cooler upper 60s likely to be found along the immediate coast. Pressure gradient between the high to the west and low pressure over Atlantic Canada is still compressed enough to allow for gusty winds through the late afternoon. NW winds continue to gust to ~20-25 mph inland and ~25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Additionally, with the well- mixed environment, RH values are already in the 25-30% range inland, and will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore) over the next few hours. However, given yesterday`s rainfall and with most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears greatly mitigated, and mainly below critical IFD thresholds. Good radiating conditions will bring the coolest night of the next week or so late tonight into Monday. Winds quickly relax this evening, as high pressure settles over the region. Look for early morning lows falling into the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s across the SE coast. There are likely to be a few upper 30s along the US-15 corridor NW of Farmville late tonight, and have undercut the guidance by a few degrees in these areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. Expect light/calm winds, and dry, mostly clear/sunny conditions to prevail tomorrow, with only a modest increase in afternoon CU on Tuesday (especially along the coast) with developing return flow. A slow moderating temperature trend ensues tomorrow that will persist for much of the week ahead. Look for highs in the mid 70s for most inland areas on Mon, with highs in the low- mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, previously referenced developing return flow brings increasingly breezy conditions on Tuesday, with gusts to ~20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. This will result in afternoon min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Increasingly warm weather is expected for much of the latter half of the week, with highs warming well above climo normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered late afternoon and evening showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed, though staying well to our NNW. Aloft, a highly amplified sub- tropical ridge builds along the east coast through late week, with a shortwave trough lifting NE from the south- central plains Wed into the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough eventually phases with a longwave trough dropping S from the Canadian Prairies and upper midwest on Thu, with that system then crossing to the east coast next weekend and finally kicking that strong cold front through the region late Fri into Sat. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast, while a ridge builds across the central CONUS that will eventually spread east next week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast, allowing for well above normal temps to persist through the latter half of the work week. Highs in the 80s (mid to upper 80s inland) Wed and Thu, with increasing clouds Fri ahead of the frontal passage cooling temps down slightly back into the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and T-Storms are possible both Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings, though with weak, mainly uni- directional shear expected, would anticipate storm timing to be mainly diurnally-driven, lasting from mid to late afternoon to early evening. The strong cold front finally gets pushed through the area on Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs falling back in the 70s for next weekend, with lows back into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. High pressure is starting to slide over our area and winds have decreased quickly over the past few hours. SBY still has an occasional lingering gust, but those should diminish in the next hour. Light northerly winds are expected overnight and will likely become variable at times. Winds will then shift to the northeast tomorrow morning before becoming easterly by tomorrow afternoon. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this period, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by later Wednesday and Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this afternoon/evening as NW winds slowly diminish behind a cold front. - Calmer conditions return tonight through the first half of Tuesday. - Additional SCAs increasingly possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night. NW winds are gradually subsiding this afternoon as low pressure moves through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 4 PM for the coastal waters, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Rappahannock River and through 7 PM for the upper Chesapeake Bay. Headlines were cancelled for the York and James Rivers and Currituck Sound late this morning. Winds turn to the N at 10-15 kt tonight and become light/variable Monday as high pressure settles over the region. The high shifts offshore for the middle of the week, with S-SW winds expected for most of the Tuesday-Friday timeframe. SCAs are looking likely later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a belt of stronger winds aloft move over ahead of a weakening cold front, with probs for sustained winds >18 kt 50-80% on the Chesapeake Bay and 80- 100% on the coastal waters. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wednesday through Thursday, with SCAs again possible Friday as another cold front approaches the waters. 2-3 ft waves on the Chesapeake Bay diminish to 1-2 ft Monday- Tuesday, with 3-4 ft seas today becoming ~2 ft Monday-Tuesday. Waves/seas increase to 3-4 ft Tuesday night, though there is some potential for the northern coastal waters to touch 5 ft. Waves/seas again subside Wednesday into Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228344 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 625 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Tonight through Monday Night... Deep layer ridging builds over the southeast CONUS and the local forecast area through Monday night. Isolated sea breeze showers and storms late this afternoon through early evening, but dissipating shortly after sunset and then chances for showers and storms even less across the area on Monday as ridging builds (although a few isolated showers or storms will be possible across coastal and eastern counties). Will probably see some more fog develop after midnight tonight and persist in some locations until shortly after sunrise Monday, but as was the case last night widespread dense fog is not expected, but we will monitor trends as always overnight. Otherwise primarily a temperature forecast. Temperatures will continue to run above normal with overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 60s inland to mid/upper 60s near the coast (and a few lower 70s possible for the barrier islands) both tonight and Monday night. Highs on Monday mainly in the mid to upper 80s with a few lower 90s over inland locations. A Low risk of rip currents over the next few days becomes Moderate by late week. DS/12 Tuesday through Sunday... Little change next week. An upper ridge centered over the western Gulf, nosing northeast into the southeast Tuesday, eases eastward Wednesday. The influence of the ridge lessens to start the latter half of the week, being shunted southeast of the local area while a southern stream upper level trof ejects out of the Plains to across the Lower/Mid MS and TN River Valleys on Thursday. With this feature`s eastward advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by late in the day Friday. Forecast remains on track with a solution lending to a more unsettled weather pattern Thursday and Friday with increase in cloud cover and rain chances. Although the front is progged to push south of the local area Saturday, the 27.12Z extended range guidance suggests that a small chance of post-frontal showers, perhaps a few storms could linger. Temperatures through the period remain well above normal. /10 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 23z, except for low MVFR/IFR conditions in seabreeze initiated isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Florida panhandle and southeast Mississippi. This convection should be gone by 02z. Fog development is expected after 08z tonight. Localized drops in VISBYs to IFR levels are possible. Another round of isolated, seabreeze initiated convection is possible Monday, mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A generally light, mostly onshore flow is expected through early week, increasing slightly by midweek before decreasing again by next weekend. DS/12 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228343 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 722 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A quiet pattern continues across most of West Central and Southwest Florida this evening, with an isolated multicellular cluster of thunderstorms just north of Sumter County in the Ocala area. There were a couple isolated storms that popped up across the Nature Coast, with even one rogue cell earlier near Brandon. However, the dry air continues to win out. Most of the Cu field has now diminished across the state away from the cluster of storms in Marion County. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with a quiet night expected. Better rain chances return tomorrow and Tuesday as a weak front and trough axis allows for deeper moisture to creep back into the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Moisture will increase over the next day or so as a weakening frontal boundary drifts south toward Florida. We`re already beginning to see some hints of this with isolated showers popping up over north central parts of the Florida peninsula. The deeper moisture will move south into the Nature Coast and central Florida peninsula during Monday with increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Highest PoPs, 60 to 70 percent, will be over the northern Nature Coast, with chances decreasing as you south to around 20 percent across southwest Florida. Convection will linger into early Monday night then dissipate. On Tuesday easterly flow will increase with the deepest moisture along the west coast coastal counties. However, models indicate that the moisture will be shifting west during the afternoon and evening out into the gulf. There should still be enough moisture when combined with daytime heating to allow for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm near the coast, especially along the sea breeze that will be pinned close to the coast. For the remainder of the work week high pressure will build in from the northeast with drier air returning. Then during next weekend an upper level trough and associated front will be moving across the eastern U.S. with the boundary settling into north Florida. Deeper moisture will once again return along with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Dry and stable conditions will continue through tomorrow morning as high pressure remains in control. However, an increase in moisture is expected by tomorrow afternoon, favoring a window later in the day (21Z to 02Z) for thunderstorms to develop. Given the background easterly flow that is expected and slow west coast sea breeze development, the southernmost favorable area will exist east of SRQ, and then will run northward between TPA and LAL and up the west coast into southern GA and FL Panhandle. Thus, VCTS has been added for TPA and LAL for the most favorable window. For other area terminals, thunderstorms should remain distant, with minimal impact. An even better chance for thunderstorms will come into play on Tuesday before dry, stable conditions return for the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A frontal boundary approaching from the north will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, then high pressure rebuilds in for the rest of the week. No headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Moisture will increase Monday and Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches the region bringing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will rebuild into the area midweek with warm dry weather returning. Relative humidity values could drop to near critical levels over inland areas south of Interstate 4 Monday afternoon, but winds will remain less than 15 mph with no Red Flag conditions anticipated. Easterly winds are expected to increase on Tuesday which will lead to rather high dispersions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 92 72 89 / 0 20 30 30 FMY 68 93 69 90 / 10 20 20 30 GIF 67 93 69 87 / 10 30 30 20 SRQ 68 89 69 88 / 0 10 20 30 BKV 62 93 65 88 / 10 50 40 20 SPG 72 88 73 87 / 0 10 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1228341 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Warm, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to prevail through the short term forecast period or through Monday night as the region sits underneath the nose and western flank of a ~1020 mb sfc high pressure system and 588 mb dam ridge. Later tonight, after sunset, some mist or low stratus could develop over parts of the area mainly along and east of I-69C as dewpoint depressions decrease. Otherwise, expect a quiet, warm, and muggy night tonight and again on Monday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Moderate winds out of the southeast 10-20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph will take place on Monday amid a slightly enhanced pressure gradient. Continued warm air advection (WAA) regime on these winds will allow for daytime highs on Monday topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s along and east of IH-69C and mid 90s west of I-69C. Moderate winds and elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Loaded the NBM for this forecast cycle. Initial rather benign conditions will turn a little more unsettled as the week progresses. There is a general thunderstorm outlook on day three, Tuesday, with a slight chance (10 to 15%) of convection for the upper valley along the RG River from front range activity. A north to south dryline will persist in the Big Bend region upstream. This scenario may be a harbinger of increasing convective activity later in the week, due in part to transiting short waves and in part to the introduction of a weak cold front arriving Thursday night into Friday. Otherwise, through the long term, temperatures will trend above normal and wind, fire weather, and heat threats will be borderline or muted. Rip current risk will likely remain moderate through the period. Warm, dry weather will dominate on Tuesday as the center of 500 mb ridge nearly directly over deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually shifts east. A tighter gradient on Tuesday and Wednesday will support breezier daytime winds across the lower valley, but confidence is currently low for any specific hazards. A pattern shift will occur later this week, with the upper ridge shifting east and a series of mid-level shortwaves riding along a west-southwest to east-northeast mid-level flow. This will produce an isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm threat daily beginning on Thursday. The focus will be more on the front range and western sections initially, but coverage will tend to expand into the weekend and into early next week. A modest ridge will move overhead this weekend, however, potentially working in opposition to surface based forcing. A deep, mid-level low is forecast to burrow into the Southwest Sunday, backing upper flow and keeping an eastern section convective threat going into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Low level cumulus over HRL and BRO (causing temporary MVFR at BRO) are breaking up as the sun sets. MVFR clouds will begin to build overnight with diurnal cooling at all sites. BRO and HRL may see visibility reduction with mist and lowering of cigs around sunrise, but confidence in MVFR or lower visibility is low (<30%). Southeast winds will remain gusty, lessening slightly overnight. By Monday afternoon, expect ceilings to return to VFR and winds gusting to around 30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Tonight through Monday night...Moderate winds will generate moderate seas through the short term period or through Monday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions can`t be entirely ruled out, particularly due to the winds. Tuesday through Friday night...Enhanced southeast winds will be in play through Wednesday, generally in the moderate to fresh category. Seas will also be higher. As a result, small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible. Winds will decrease in strength to moderate after Wednesday, but Gulf of America seas may remain slightly elevated into Thursday, decreasing to moderate after Thursday. Rain chances will increase on Friday as a weak front pushes into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 88 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 72 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 75 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228342 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low rain chances tonight and Monday in South Texas - Above normal temperatures expected to persist through next week Expect the region to be under the influence from the previously mentioned lower level ridge that is draped over the region through this evening. This will promote quiet conditions across the region with highs generally in the 80s and upper 90s. This is expected to progress to the east overnight. Conditions will remain mostly dry outside of a low chance for diurnally driven convection with the arrival of the sea breeze. A disturbance will pass to the north into the Great Plains with some embedded shortwaves over Texas. This will interact with some above normal moisture thanks to onshore flow in the region and moderate instability leading to a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. There will be a moderate risk for rip currents if heading to the beaches. So, exercise caution if heading to the beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low to medium (15-40%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week. - Above normal temperatures continue through the upcoming week. - Moderate to high chance of heat indices between 100-105 by mid week. - Front with showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly in the Brush Country Tuesday is looking like it should be dry. The chances for rain are very low (10%), although the last few days, the NBM has said that only for light showers/sprinkles sometime during the day. The PWAT values are still 1.5"+ (75th percentile for this time of year), so the moisture in the atmosphere is high, which means that isolated showers/scattered sprinkles. Otherwise, dry, with warm (95-100 in the Rio Grande Plains) temperatures. Heat indices approach 100, as well. Wednesday, the 500 mb low, in the Intermountian West, begins to dig into the Texas Panhandle, pushing a good shortwave into South Texas, and it spins up a sfc low, near DRT. If this were winter time, this would have some colder air associated with it, but we are starting to "pre-heat" for the summer. So, the temperatures rise a despite the sfc trough. The NBM has the rain mainly along the northern Brush Country, and the Victoria Crossroads, but the GFS, and especially the ECMWF, as the rain dropping more into Brush country, and the Coastal Plains. We`ll see. The wave moves out by Wednesday night and another surge of moisture and another wave moves into the region which increases the chances Thursday from 15-25% in the Rio Grande Plains, t && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions will persist for the next 2-3 hours with MVFR CIGs building in after sunset. Breezy southeasterly winds of 15-25 knots will diminish around this time as well to generally around 10 knots. Added in TEMPO groups for brief MVFR VSBYs for KVCT and KALI between 11Z-14Z Monday morning based on Sunday morning`s observations. CIGs will gradually improve back to VFR by 15Z or so on Monday. Southeasterly winds will be breezy once again with sustained winds near 15-20 knots and gusts up to 25-30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze today will slightly strengthen to a dominantly fresh (BF 5) breeze Monday with seas around 3 to 5 feet. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will most spots excluding the northern waters (including the bays). A fresh (BF 5) onshore breeze can be expected Tuesday with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions by Tuesday night. Onshore winds decrease to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) on Wednesday, then moderate (BF 4) by Thursday and should continue through the weekend. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday increasing to a 30% on Friday and Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions will be approached over western Webb County Monday afternoon as relative humidity drops to around 30 percent with 20 ft winds around 20 mph. Additional brief elevated fire thresholds may be approached across portions of the Rio Grande Plains as relative humidity values drop below 30% and Energy Release Component (ERC) values trend above 70% across Southern Webb County through the latter portions of the week. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 86 70 87 / 0 10 10 0 Laredo 72 97 72 97 / 10 0 10 0 Alice 71 91 71 91 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 74 84 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 97 72 96 / 20 0 10 0 Kingsville 72 88 71 88 / 0 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 74 81 74 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228340 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Tough to beat a fcst of persistence. Despite a continued se/s llvl flow, prevalent mid/upper ridging in place will keep chances of precip minimal at best. Look for overnight-morning cloudiness followed by pcldy afternoons & evenings with lows around 70 and highs in the 80s. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 No major changes to the previous forecast. This week will feature warm and humid weather with the combination of onshore/southerly flow from the surface through the 700 mb layer and southwesterly flow aloft. This will result in a deep layer of moisture with PWAT values nearing 1.6" by mid-week. Along with the increase in moisture through the week, an upper-level low is projected to move into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday during the afternoon hours, courtesy of available moisture and pockets of enhanced lift. Rain chances will increase later Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weak cold front associated with the trough approaches from the west. Models seemed to have backed off on the boundary pushing into SE Texas, and instead have it retreating back into Central Texas just before it gets to the CWA. In any case, this is pretty late in the forecast period, and models seem to still be trying to grasp a consistent story. If the front does indeed push through by Thursday, we will see a brief period of cooler and drier air before the return of onshore flow. Even if the boundary does not push through, while we will miss out on the cooler and drier airmass, rain chances will continue through Saturday as weak disturbances pass overhead and interact with the available moisture. Highs for this week will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. Max heat index values will approach the low 90s. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, locations that receive rainfall on Thursday may observe cooler than forecasted high temperatures. Lows through the week will be in the low to mid 70s. Going into the weekend lows will be slightly cooler as temps drop into the mid to upper 60s inland and in the low 70s along the coast and potentially the Houston Metro. Adams && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Expect VFR conditions to continue through the evening with breezy southeasterly winds going on a downward trend shortly after sunset. MVFR ceilings will filter in again from south to north overnight with the potential for intermittent periods of IFR ceilings. Additionally, added in reduced visibilities for CXO and SGR based on what occurred previously on Saturday night/Sunday morning. The main window for the lowest ceilings/visibilities is 08Z-14Z. After 15Z, ceilings will gradually improve and should be back to VFR by 17Z. Southeasterly winds will be gusty once again with sustained winds near 15 kt and gusts up to 25 kt through the afternoon. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of next week with gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning or afternoon. The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly needed as early as Monday or Tuesday. The combination of abnormally high astronomical tides and the increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday. Tides at this level have been known to result in coastal flooding on Gulf-facing beaches. Be mindful if planning to travel to the beach this week with multiple hazards in the forecast. Adams && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 88 69 87 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 82 75 81 / 0 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228335 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 403 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low rain chances tonight and Monday in South Texas - Above normal temperatures expected to persist through next week Expect the region to be under the influence from the previously mentioned lower level ridge that is draped over the region through this evening. This will promote quiet conditions across the region with highs generally in the 80s and upper 90s. This is expected to progress to the east overnight. Conditions will remain mostly dry outside of a low chance for diurnally driven convection with the arrival of the sea breeze. A disturbance will pass to the north into the Great Plains with some embedded shortwaves over Texas. This will interact with some above normal moisture thanks to onshore flow in the region and moderate instability leading to a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. There will be a moderate risk for rip currents if heading to the beaches. So, exercise caution if heading to the beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low to medium (15-40%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week. - Above normal temperatures continue through the upcoming week. - Moderate to high chance of heat indices between 100-105 by mid week. - Front with showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly in the Brush Country Tuesday is looking like it should be dry. The chances for rain are very low (10%), although the last few days, the NBM has said that only for light showers/sprinkles sometime during the day. The PWAT values are still 1.5"+ (75th percentile for this time of year), so the moisture in the atmosphere is high, which means that isolated showers/scattered sprinkles. Otherwise, dry, with warm (95-100 in the Rio Grande Plains) temperatures. Heat indices approach 100, as well. Wednesday, the 500 mb low, in the Intermountian West, begins to dig into the Texas Panhandle, pushing a good shortwave into South Texas, and it spins up a sfc low, near DRT. If this were winter time, this would have some colder air associated with it, but we are starting to "pre-heat" for the summer. So, the temperatures rise a despite the sfc trough. The NBM has the rain mainly along the northern Brush Country, and the Victoria Crossroads, but the GFS, and especially the ECMWF, as the rain dropping more into Brush country, and the Coastal Plains. We`ll see. The wave moves out by Wednesday night and another surge of moisture and another wave moves into the region which increases the chances Thursday from 15-25% in the Rio Grande Plains, t && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions will transition to MVFR ceilings with periods of IFR possible early this evening. This will persist through late Monday morning before returning to VFR. Winds will be elevated with gusts up to 25 knots through this afternoon before diminishing. Expect this to occur again tomorrow around mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze today will slightly strengthen to a dominantly fresh (BF 5) breeze Monday with seas around 3 to 5 feet. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will most spots excluding the northern waters (including the bays). A fresh (BF 5) onshore breeze can be expected Tuesday with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions by Tuesday night. Onshore winds decrease to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) on Wednesday, then moderate (BF 4) by Thursday and should continue through the weekend. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday increasing to a 30% on Friday and Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions will be approached over western Webb County Monday afternoon as relative humidity drops to around 30 percent with 20 ft winds around 20 mph. Additional brief elevated fire thresholds may be approached across portions of the Rio Grande Plains as relative humidity values drop below 30% and Energy Release Component (ERC) values trend above 70% across Southern Webb County through the latter portions of the week. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 86 70 87 / 0 10 10 0 Laredo 72 97 72 97 / 10 0 10 0 Alice 71 91 71 91 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 74 84 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 97 72 96 / 20 0 10 0 Kingsville 72 88 71 88 / 0 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 74 81 74 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228333 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 404 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Tonight through Monday Night... Deep layer ridging builds over the southeast CONUS and the local forecast area through Monday night. Isolated sea breeze showers and storms late this afternoon through early evening, but dissipating shortly after sunset and then chances for showers and storms even less across the area on Monday as ridging builds (although a few isolated showers or storms will be possible across coastal and eastern counties). Will probably see some more fog develop after midnight tonight and persist in some locations until shortly after sunrise Monday, but as was the case last night widespread dense fog is not expected, but we will monitor trends as always overnight. Otherwise primarily a temperature forecast. Temperatures will continue to run above normal with overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 60s inland to mid/upper 60s near the coast (and a few lower 70s possible for the barrier islands) both tonight and Monday night. Highs on Monday mainly in the mid to upper 80s with a few lower 90s over inland locations. A Low risk of rip currents over the next few days becomes Moderate by late week. DS/12 Tuesday through Sunday... Little change next week. An upper ridge centered over the western Gulf, nosing northeast into the southeast Tuesday, eases eastward Wednesday. The influence of the ridge lessens to start the latter half of the week, being shunted southeast of the local area while a southern stream upper level trof ejects out of the Plains to across the Lower/Mid MS and TN River Valleys on Thursday. With this feature`s eastward advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by late in the day Friday. Forecast remains on track with a solution lending to a more unsettled weather pattern Thursday and Friday with increase in cloud cover and rain chances. Although the front is progged to push south of the local area Saturday, the 27.12Z extended range guidance suggests that a small chance of post-frontal showers, perhaps a few storms could linger. Temperatures through the period remain well above normal. /10 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across nearly all of the area for the remainder of the day and into mid evening, with the exception being near isolated showers and storms late this afternoon and early this evening where brief IFR ceilings and vsby`s could occur. Later tonight, patchy fog will again develop across parts of the region, possibly reducing ceilings and vsby to IFR or even briefly LIFR at times. The fog should lift after sunrise Monday morning with VFR conditions then expected through 18Z. Surface winds will be light and somewhat variable today and tonight, then more predominately light southeasterly on Monday. DS/12 && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A generally light, mostly onshore flow is expected through early week, increasing slightly by midweek before decreasing again by next weekend. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 87 65 85 67 85 68 84 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 68 83 68 82 70 81 70 81 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 82 70 82 71 82 71 81 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 63 89 63 88 63 88 63 87 / 20 20 0 10 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 64 90 63 89 64 89 65 87 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 50 Camden 64 87 63 87 64 87 64 86 / 10 20 0 10 0 0 0 30 Crestview 64 89 63 87 63 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228331 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 445 PM AST Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through at least Thursday due to a series of troughs and abundant moisture. The likelihood of urban and small stream flooding due to strong showers and thunderstorms, as well as mudslides and rapid river rises will remain high along with a chance of isolated flash flooding as well. While there is some uncertainty in the location and timing of this rain, there is a high confidence of a wet and unsettled period for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and local waters. A high rip current risk is in effect for the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo and Culebra through at least late tonight. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday... Showers and thunderstorms impacted mainly the eastern third of PR and the US Virgin Islands throughout the morning, producing flash, river, and urban flooding. Since midnight, the highest radar- estimated rainfall accumulations ranged from around 1.0 to 2.0 inches, with isolated rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches. Then, thunderstorms moved across the interior and north central locations of PR, where estimated ranged between 2 and 3 inches. The maximum temperatures observed ranged in the mid or upper 80s across the western half portion of PR, where rain developed around noon. Today`s winds were mainly from the ESE-SE at 10 mph but gusty near thunderstorms and with sea breeze variations. For tonight, we anticipate that today`s afternoon convection slowly dissipates from the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico by this evening. However, the unstable pattern will continue due to the proximity of the deep layer trough and abundant moisture moving in from the east. Remember that soils are saturated, and rivers and stream flows are elevated. Thus, any persistent moderate or heavy rain can lead to flooding issues, including minor, flash, or river flooding, as well as landslides in steep terrain. We also expect another round of inclement weather, spreading from the surrounding waters into the local islands overnight and tomorrow early morning (Monday), affecting mainly across the US Virgin Islands and the eastern third of Puerto Rico. At the beginning of the workweek, we anticipate that the wet and unstable weather pattern will persist due to the influence of the mid-to-upper trough and abundant tropical moisture. Although model guidance indicates a slight decrease in moisture content, it will remain above normal to average, thus sustaining the wet conditions. The most significant precipitation activity is expected primarily during the afternoons and early evenings. Beginning Monday night, winds will shift from the east to the northeast, resulting in afternoon showers and thunderstorms concentrating more to the southeast of the main island. Residents and visitors are advised to stay informed about the weather and monitor official forecast updates, particularly because of the ongoing flood risk, which is the primary concern. The threat of unexpected landslides along steep terrains is also a concern. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... ./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 453 AM AST Sun Apr 27 2025/ A wet and unstable weather pattern will persist through the early part of the long-term forecast. A surface high-pressure system over the western Atlantic and a surface low over the central Atlantic will induce east-northeast winds across the CWA. These northeast winds will promote low-level convergence over the region, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday, when the surface low will be closest to the northeast. Precipitable water content is expected to remain between 1.7 and above 1.9 inches. These values exceed the 75th and 90th percentiles of the climatological normal, indicating a continuation of well-above-normal moisture levels for this time of year. In terms of instability, the surface low is being induced by an upper-level cut-off low. These features will lead to a further drop in 250 mb height fields, cooler 500 mb temperatures, and steeper lapse rates, sustaining unstable weather conditions capable of generating deep convective activity. The likelihood of convection will be highest during the afternoon hours, as high moisture content and instability combine with surface heating and local effects. Soils are expected to remain somewhat saturated by Wednesday due to rains from previous days, with rivers still experiencing elevated streamflows. Consequently, the flood risk will remain elevated through at least Thursday, particularly during the afternoon hours. Quick river rises, river flooding, and landslides are also possible, primarily across Puerto Rico. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, minor flooding with brief periods of excessive runoff is possible each day of the week. Some ridging aloft will bring somewhat more stable weather conditions by the end of the workweek into the weekend. Nevertheless, enough low-level moisture could combine with diurnal heating and local effects during the afternoon to promote convective activity in localized areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) SHRA/TSRA will continue to impact the local flying area throughout the forecast period. Terminals could be affected by this activity, producing periods of MVFR or even IFR. Thus, TEMPOs will be mainly required for the following time frames: 18-23z across JBQ/JSJ and 03- 12z near IST/ISX/JSJ. Winds will prevail between 10 and 15 kt, mainly from the ESE/SE under sea breeze variations, becoming calm to light and variable after 27/23z, returning from the ESE at around 10 kt after 28/13z with sea breezes. && .MARINE... Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through at least tonight, backing from the northeast winds early this week. A deep layer trough will continue to promote an unstable weather pattern across the local waters. Thus, showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist, producing localized hazardous marine conditions. This unstable and wet pattern will prevail through at least midweek. A long-period northeasterly swell is spreading across the Atlantic waters. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution. && .BEACH FORECAST... A northeasterly swell of 12-14s is being detected by the CariCOOS buoys near Rincon, San Juan and Vieques. There is a High Risk of Rip Currents through at least 6 AM AST tomorrow, Monday, for the north- facing beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, and Culebra. A High Risk of Rip Currents means that life- threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone. A moderate risk of rip currents is also forecast for tonight for the beaches of Aguada, Rincon, northern Vieques, northern St. Thomas, northern St. John and northeastern and eastern St. Croix. Low risk elsewhere, however, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). Residents and visitors in affected regions should heed warnings, avoid swimming in these waters, and stay informed about updates from local authorities. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228330 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 An upper level ridge expanding from Mexico to Canada is moving eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. Increased heights form that high pressure system moving is the main mechanism expected to limit convective coverage quite a bit as well as keep temps several degrees above normal in the coming days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have been able to break through the CAP along sea breeze boundaries where low level convergence is greatest. Relatively low PW`s in place and lack of synoptic forcing has been and will continue to limit coverage. Small hail and gusty winds will be the main threats with a high CAPE low shear environment. Short- term street flooding (think flood advisory) type rain events is what to expect. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The upper level ridge is expected build slightly more north and northeastward during the first half of the week. So should be no surprise that the forecast calls for slightly warmer temps as 500 mb heights increase locally and a generally end of precip for a couple days. The locations that reach into the upper 80s to near 90 may reach or break a record depending on the day. The second half of the week is where changes are more likely. Global models show an upper level trough moving through the country, cross the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Solutions suggest that it`s a merger between northern and southern stream jets. With such high variability potential changes between now and then and models ability (or lack there of) to resolve that complex of a solution, am less confidence on specific local impacts other than possibly return of rain chances. Today`s GFS vs 24 hours ago shows just that with much less rain over the CWA as it keeps the base of the trough a bit farther north now. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the day outside of convective development. 20z radar imagery shows isolated storms developing mainly along sea breeze boundaries. Site specific direct impacts from storms is relatively low but could see brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds if a cell passes over or near a terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions the rest of this evening and overnight as cloud cover dissipates with loss of daytime heating. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Surface ridge will be centered east of the local marine waters through much of the upcoming week. That`ll keep onshore flow well established. Speeds start off quite light early in the period with the pressure gradient fairly weak. Towards the 2nd half of the week, an approaching cold front will result in a tightening of the local pressure gradient. The forecast follows this change with a gradual increase in wind speeds and likely to need an Exercise Caution headline. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 87 65 87 / 20 0 0 0 BTR 67 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 66 87 67 86 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 69 87 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 84 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 64 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228329 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 417 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through at least Thursday, with a cold front to impact the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Late this afternoon: Radar and satellite indicated a backdoor sliding across SE GA, temperatures ahead of the front have reached around 90 degrees. In addition, a sea breeze was advancing inland across the forecast area, intersecting with the sea breeze across extreme SE GA. KCLX detected isolated pulse showers near the intersection of the sea breeze and cold front. SPC mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE in the area of the boundary intersection ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg. It is anticipated that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Altamaha River Valley this afternoon and early evening. Convection should either dissipate or slide southward with the backdoor cold front by sunset this evening. GOES water vapor shows a mid-level vort max crossing over the AL/GA line late this afternoon. This feature will track east tonight, high resolution guidance indicates that rounds of showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the feature, with storm motions to the east. Fading convection may reach extreme SE GA through the night, but should remain weak. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 50s across the inland Lowcountry to around 60 across extreme SE GA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday: The remnant front and associated baroclinic zone will lie not far to the south of the Altamaha River, as high pressure to the north pushes more to the southeast rather than the south. This keeps the front not too far through most of the day. Weak isentropic ascent north of the front, low level convergence, and sufficient moisture up to about 500 mb will support the risk for some rainfall over southeast Georgia. Guidance varies on the northern extent of this activity, with the global models a bit more aggressive and further north than the HREF and HRRR. For now we went more with a blend of the Hi- Res and NBM. This supports isolated to scattered showers, mainly to the south of I-16. There isn`t much evidence for t-storms with poor low level lapse rates and limited instability. But to maintain consistency with the previous forecast and to blend with WFO JAX and FFC, we do hold onto mention of such. Combining a blend of the low level thickness forecast (offset some by the onshore flow) and the various MOS and NBM guidance, we arrive at highs in the upper 70s to near 80F away from the cooler beaches. Monday night: The front eventually washes out as high pressure nudges further into the local communities. This forces the better moisture to the south, and with ridging aloft to build in, any convection should have ended by sunset. It look to be enough decoupling of winds to cause a decent radiational cooling away from the coast. This in turn will allow for a cool night across inland sections of South Carolina and far interior Georgia. The coolest spots will be 52-54F in Berkeley, Dorchester and Colleton County, and parts of Charleston County north of Mt. Pleasant. Warmest sections will be coastal locations, and in downtown Savannah, and the Charleston metro, down in the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday: Ridging aloft and Atlantic high pressure at the surface and lower levels will negate any potential for any convection. One possible exception might be far interior Georgia late Tuesday, where the sea breeze and a greater amount of low level moisture convergence could spur a few showers. Given the large scale subsidence and poor instability, we maintain a rainfree forecast. As 850 mb temperatures climb to 12-13C Tuesday, and 13-14C Wednesday, afternoon highs warm a few degrees each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging aloft breaks down later in the week, first as a short wave brushes nearby Thursday night into Friday, then as a more prominent trough aloft and associated height falls moves in Friday night into Saturday. This will send a cold front into the area at some point late in the week/early weekend, with the next risk for showers and t- storms. MLCAPE isn`t that impressive per latest guidance, but it is worth noting that the CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Guidance has 5 and 10% probabilities of severe weather with that front. It`ll remain warm ahead of the front, with some potential for 90F far interior Georgia when 850 mb temperatures peak at 15-16C. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 18Z TAFs, a couple of boundaries were between TAFs sites. A backdoor cold front was just upstream of KSAV, the front should pass over the terminal with northeast at the onset of the 18Z TAF. In addition, the sea breeze was between KCHS and KJZI, just east of KSAV, expected to advance inland of KCHS and KSAV by 21Z, shifting winds from the east. High resolution guidance indicates that showers and thunderstorms will remain south of KSAV through tonight, TAFs will remain dry and VFR. On Monday, the sea breeze should develop by mid-morning, followed by east winds, gusty at KJZI. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... This evening and tonight: Surge of NE winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts across the Atlantic waters into this evening. Conditions should improve from north to south this evening, with SCAs ending across the SC waters between 8-10 PM and the GA waters by midnight. Winds for the rest of the night will remain from the east-northeast between 10-15 kts. Seas are forecast to range from 3 to 5 ft through tonight. Monday: The remnants of the cold front will be not too far to the south, as high pressure expands across the waters from the north and northeast. There is the potential for some 6 foot seas to edge into the outer Georgia waters, but not enough coverage to hoist a Small Craft Advisory. There will be a few showers and potential t-storms on the Georgia waters. Monday night through Thursday night: High pressure in the main feature, keeping winds and seas well beneath any advisory thresholds. It`ll also prevent any convection from occurring. Friday and Friday night: The next cold front could approach, maybe with some t-storms. But winds and seas remain less than 15 kt and 5 feet, respectively. Rip Currents: A continued 2 ft, 9-10 second swell will persist today. Breezy to windy conditions will occur over the beaches as a pinched gradient develops with the passage of a cold front. These conditions will push the rip current risk into the high category for all beaches. Rip currents were reported at both Hilton Head and Tybee Island Saturday. Both the number and strength of the rip currents will remain into this evening. The local Rip Current Calculator is showing a solid Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Monday, due to astronomical influences, modest onshore winds, and small swells. However, if winds are just a tad higher, and/or there is a 9 second period swell rather than 8 seconds, we could require another High Risk. Conditions look to be Moderate for Tuesday as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Positive tidal departures are expected to build through this evening as northeast winds increase in the wake of a passing cold front. Tide levels are expected to peak around 7.5 ft MLLW (moderate) in the Charleston Harbor and 9.7 ft MLLW (minor) at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the SC and GA coast as confidence in reaching advisory is moderate for flooding between 7 to 10 PM. The risk for at least minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides will persist into Tuesday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ354-374. && $$ |
| #1228328 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 401 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today and through much of this week - Above normal to near record highs this afternoon for some interior locations and seasonable to above normal temperatures on Monday before slightly "cooler" air on Tuesday; There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida through this early evening - Sensitive fire weather conditions continue today and into this week - Isolated showers into this evening west of the Orlando metro. Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) over the interior with occasional lightning strikes && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Currently-Monday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida except for an isolated shower over northeastern Lake county. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies. A weak "cool" front is situated over the western Atlantic and southeastern US to the north of east central Florida which extends from low pressure (~1002mb) near the Maine coast. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to upper 80s near the coast and in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees inland to the west of I-95. Dew points are in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally from the east-southeast at 4-12mph. Mostly dry weather is expected to continue through tonight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop over portions of Lake, northern Volusia, western Seminole, and western Orange county into the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 4PM-9PM) as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are forecast over the interior west of I-95 with the 60s forecast near the coast under partly cloudy skies. Rain showers (PoPs ~20-50%) and lightning storm chances (20%) increase into the day on Monday as moisture increases (PWATs ~1.40-1.70") over east central Florida as the aforementioned "cool" front gradually moves south over north Florida and the east central Florida Atlantic waters. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop Monday morning near the Volusia and northern Brevard county coasts. Rain shower and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage west- southwest of Volusia and northern Brevard counties into the afternoon on Monday as east-southeast winds converge with the west coast sea breeze over west central Florida. The highest potential for rain and storms during the day on Monday is to north of Cocoa Beach to Lake Kissimmee before rain shower (PoPs ~20-30%) and storm chances increase near the coast Monday night into Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. East winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into the afternoon. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s over the interior to the west of I-95. Tuesday-Wednesday... High pressure (~1028mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic to the northeast of east central Florida into Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered (PoPs ~20-30%) onshore moving showers are forecast Tuesday morning and into the afternoon with onshore flow in place and PWATs between 1.0-1.50." Drier air is expected midweek with a mid/upper level ridge axis forecast over the southeastern US and the state of Florida on Wednesday with PWATs between 0.70-1.00." East winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast Tuesday morning. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast inland to the west of I-95 with the mid 60s to near 70 degrees forecast near the coast Wednesday morning. Thursday-Saturday...The previously mentioned mid/upper level ridge is expected to weaken and shift east-southeast over the western Atlantic on Thursday before a major shortwave trough is forecast to deepen over the southeastern US Friday into Saturday. Rain chances (PoPs ~20%) return on Friday as the ridge weakens/shifts east and moisture increases with PWAT values in the 1.10-1.50" range on Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~ 20%) are forecast Friday afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze over central Florida with a similar forecast on Saturday (except PoPs ~20-30 on Saturday). Generally, east-southeast winds are expected to increase into Thursday afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Light south-southwest winds are expected to back onshore and increase into Friday and Saturday afternoons with the sea breeze mainly over and to the east of the Orlando metro. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the west of I-95 on Thursday with the mid 80s to low 90s forecast on Friday and Saturday. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast inland to the west of I-95 Thursday morning with the 60s to low 70s forecast near the coast. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast Friday and Saturday mornings. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Currently-Monday... Boating conditions are expected to become poor to hazardous on Monday. A "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east-southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters into the day on Monday. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-60%) generally west to southwest moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning and into the day on Monday. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Generally, east-southeast winds at 6-14kts are forecast to increase into Monday evening at 15-20kts. Seas are forecast to increase into the evening on Monday at 3-5ft with 6 ft forecast over the offshore (20-60nm) waters Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure (~1026mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and into midweek. Isolated generally onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20-40%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Tuesday before rain shower and lightning storm chances decrease into the afternoon. East winds at 12-18kts are forecast on Tuesday before reducing to 10-15kts from the east on Wednesday and from the east-southeast on Thursday. Seas to 3-5ft are expected with up to 6ft forecast over the Gulf Stream Tuesday before seas reduce to 3-5ft on Wednesday, and 2-4ft on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Pulled VCSH from all TAFs but KLEE due to shower chances decreasing in latest guidance and very dry observations. Sea breeze collision in vicinity of KLEE continues low but mentionable shower chances there. Continue to keep thunder mention out due to very low chances. E-ESE winds 8-12 kts decrease after around 22Z, becoming light/variable after around 04Z. Patchy ground fog possible in the early morning again. Winds out of the ESE-ENE wake back up late morning Monday, increasing to 10-15 kts in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Shower chances increase Monday after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Increased moisture across the area on Monday as a weakening front gets pushed across east central Florida as a reinforcing high pressure pushes southeast off the Carolina coast. The increased moisture will support isolated to scattered showers (20-50 percent) and isolated lightning storms (20-30 percent chance) Monday afternoon. The highest potential for storms will be generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday due to the lingering moisture as well as the increasing onshore winds. Due to the lingering moisture, isolated to scattered showers (20-30 percent) are forecast once again Tuesday afternoon in the breezy onshore flow. Lightning storms are not forecast on Tuesday. Drier air will then move in across the area on Wednesday, resulting in no mentionable rain chances. Min RH values will reduce once again to 35-45 percent over the interior on Wednesday. Very warm conditions are forecast Monday, with a slight cool down on Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and low to mid 80s along the coast on Monday. Temperatures decrease slightly on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s, except mid 80s across the far western interior. Smoke dispersion values will good to very good on Monday, and very good to excellent on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 83 68 80 / 20 40 30 20 MCO 67 90 69 82 / 10 30 30 20 MLB 65 83 70 80 / 0 20 30 20 VRB 62 84 69 81 / 0 20 30 20 LEE 69 90 69 85 / 20 50 30 20 SFB 68 88 68 83 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 69 88 69 83 / 10 30 30 20 FPR 62 84 69 80 / 0 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228327 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns through Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for Tuesday through the latter half of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cool down arrives next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Breezy this afternoon with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. - Mainly clear and cool tonight with upper 30s to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s coastal areas. Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s inland, with highs in the lower 70s still looking good inland, with cooler upper 60s likely to be found along the immediate coast. Pressure gradient between the high to the west and low pressure over Atlantic Canada is still compressed enough to allow for gusty winds through the late afternoon. NW winds continue to gust to ~20-25 mph inland and ~25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Additionally, with the well- mixed environment, RH values are already in the 25-30% range inland, and will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore) over the next few hours. However, given yesterday`s rainfall and with most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears greatly mitigated, and mainly below critical IFD thresholds. Good radiating conditions will bring the coolest night of the next week or so late tonight into Monday. Winds quickly relax this evening, as high pressure settles over the region. Look for early morning lows falling into the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s across the SE coast. There are likely to be a few upper 30s along the US-15 corridor NW of Farmville late tonight, and have undercut the guidance by a few degrees in these areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. Expect light/calm winds, and dry, mostly clear/sunny conditions to prevail tomorrow, with only a modest increase in afternoon CU on Tuesday (especially along the coast) with developing return flow. A slow moderating temperature trend ensues tomorrow that will persist for much of the week ahead. Look for highs in the mid 70s for most inland areas on Mon, with highs in the low- mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, previously referenced developing return flow brings increasingly breezy conditions on Tuesday, with gusts to ~20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. This will result in afternoon min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Increasingly warm weather is expected for much of the latter half of the week, with highs warming well above climo normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered late afternoon and evening showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed, though staying well to our NNW. Aloft, a highly amplified sub- tropical ridge builds along the east coast through late week, with a shortwave trough lifting NE from the south- central plains Wed into the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough eventually phases with a longwave trough dropping S from the Canadian Prairies and upper midwest on Thu, with that system then crossing to the east coast next weekend and finally kicking that strong cold front through the region late Fri into Sat. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast, while a ridge builds across the central CONUS that will eventually spread east next week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast, allowing for well above normal temps to persist through the latter half of the work week. Highs in the 80s (mid to upper 80s inland) Wed and Thu, with increasing clouds Fri ahead of the frontal passage cooling temps down slightly back into the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and T-Storms are possible both Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings, though with weak, mainly uni- directional shear expected, would anticipate storm timing to be mainly diurnally-driven, lasting from mid to late afternoon to early evening. The strong cold front finally gets pushed through the area on Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs falling back in the 70s for next weekend, with lows back into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Mainly clear/VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some SCT CU/SC will continue to clear through early afternoon, leaving mainly SKC conditions this aftn and tonight. NW winds remain gusty this afternoon, averaging 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) this afternoon with winds remaining 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt elsewhere. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this period, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by later Wednesday and Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this afternoon/evening as NW winds slowly diminish behind a cold front. - Calmer conditions return tonight through the first half of Tuesday. - Additional SCAs increasingly possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night. NW winds are gradually subsiding this afternoon as low pressure moves through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 4 PM for the coastal waters, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Rappahannock River and through 7 PM for the upper Chesapeake Bay. Headlines were cancelled for the York and James Rivers and Currituck Sound late this morning. Winds turn to the N at 10-15 kt tonight and become light/variable Monday as high pressure settles over the region. The high shifts offshore for the middle of the week, with S-SW winds expected for most of the Tuesday-Friday timeframe. SCAs are looking likely later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a belt of stronger winds aloft move over ahead of a weakening cold front, with probs for sustained winds >18 kt 50-80% on the Chesapeake Bay and 80- 100% on the coastal waters. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wednesday through Thursday, with SCAs again possible Friday as another cold front approaches the waters. 2-3 ft waves on the Chesapeake Bay diminish to 1-2 ft Monday- Tuesday, with 3-4 ft seas today becoming ~2 ft Monday-Tuesday. Waves/seas increase to 3-4 ft Tuesday night, though there is some potential for the northern coastal waters to touch 5 ft. Waves/seas again subside Wednesday into Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-635-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228326 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 237 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Warm, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to prevail through the short term forecast period or through Monday night as the region sits underneath the nose and western flank of a ~1020 mb sfc high pressure system and 588 mb dam ridge. Later tonight, after sunset, some mist or low stratus could develop over parts of the area mainly along and east of I-69C as dewpoint depressions decrease. Otherwise, expect a quiet, warm, and muggy night tonight and again on Monday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Moderate winds out of the southeast 10-20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph will take place on Monday amid a slightly enhanced pressure gradient. Continued warm air advection (WAA) regime on these winds will allow for daytime highs on Monday topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s along and east of IH-69C and mid 90s west of I-69C. Moderate winds and elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Loaded the NBM for this forecast cycle. Initial rather benign conditions will turn a little more unsettled as the week progresses. There is a general thunderstorm outlook on day three, Tuesday, with a slight chance (10 to 15%) of convection for the upper valley along the RG River from front range activity. A north to south dryline will persist in the Big Bend region upstream. This scenario may be a harbinger of increasing convective activity later in the week, due in part to transiting short waves and in part to the introduction of a weak cold front arriving Thursday night into Friday. Otherwise, through the long term, temperatures will trend above normal and wind, fire weather, and heat threats will be borderline or muted. Rip current risk will likely remain moderate through the period. Warm, dry weather will dominate on Tuesday as the center of 500 mb ridge nearly directly over deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually shifts east. A tighter gradient on Tuesday and Wednesday will support breezier daytime winds across the lower valley, but confidence is currently low for any specific hazards. A pattern shift will occur later this week, with the upper ridge shifting east and a series of mid-level shortwaves riding along a west-southwest to east-northeast mid-level flow. This will produce an isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm threat daily beginning on Thursday. The focus will be more on the front range and western sections initially, but coverage will tend to expand into the weekend and into early next week. A modest ridge will move overhead this weekend, however, potentially working in opposition to surface based forcing. A deep, mid-level low is forecast to burrow into the Southwest Sunday, backing upper flow and keeping an eastern section convective threat going into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through 18z Monday....Latest GOES-East visible satellite imagery revealed a scattered deck of diurnally-driven VFR-MVFR cumulus clouds overhead with cloud bases ranging between 2,400-3,500 feet AGL and unrestricted visibilities. Through the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening, expect for ceilings to be predominantly VFR as daytime or sfc-based heating increases. Later this evening and especially tonight, after sunset, expect for dewpoint depressions to decrease and ceilings to lower to MVFR levels. Dewpoint depressions could lower enough for some mist to develop tonight into Monday morning. VFR-MVFR cigs Monday morning will give way to VFR ceilings later in the afternoon. Through this afternoon, it will be breezy at times with southeast winds 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts or so on an enhanced pressure gradient. These winds are expected to continue through the evening hours, possibly weakening slightly at night. During the day on MOnday, it will continue to be breezy at times with southeast winds 10-15 kts gusting as high as 30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Tonight through Monday night...Moderate winds will generate moderate seas through the short term period or through Monday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions can`t be entirely ruled out, particularly due to the winds. Tuesday through Friday night...Enhanced southeast winds will be in play through Wednesday, generally in the moderate to fresh category. Seas will also be higher. As a result, small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible. Winds will decrease in strength to moderate after Wednesday, but Gulf of America seas may remain slightly elevated into Thursday, decreasing to moderate after Thursday. Rain chances will increase on Friday as a weak front pushes into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 88 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 72 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 75 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228325 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 321 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 South Florida remains situated between a dipole of surface ridging today, with a ridge axis present in the Gulf in conjunction with a separate foci in the western Atlantic. Not much more exciting when looking aloft as there is a lack of synoptic forcing across the region with quite the stagnant vertical column in place. This morning`s 12Z sounding and the latest model soundings show the continuance of a stout mid-level subsidence inversion that will continue to stifle any real rain chances (outside of a few shallow- layer stray isolated showers advecting into the east coast metro areas via easterly flow). Given the lack of any synoptic influence aloft, the mesoscale will dictate the weather regime once again today with winds veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out an isolated shower this afternoon along the gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida but overall rain chances remain lackluster. The amplification of a deep-layer ridge across the southeastern United States on Monday will slow the progression of a backdoor frontal boundary propagating southwestward across the Florida Peninsula occurring in tandem with a weak upper level shortwave ridge-riding. With the weak boundary on our doorstep, periphery moisture associated with the frontal boundary in tandem with diurnal heating and convergence (localized ascent along the gulf breeze boundary) could set the stage for a few isolated showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida. There will still be considerable amounts of low-level dry air to contend with but if an updraft is able to sustain long enough, forecast model soundings from CAMS such as the HRRR, RAFS, and RAP show enough marginal instability to get a thunderstorm going across inland southwestern Florida. Given how dry the vegetation has become across our area and the isolated nature of any rainfall, any lightning strike could potentially spark new wildfires. High temperatures will be similar this afternoon and once again on Monday. The warmest temperatures are forecast for inland southwestern Florida with widespread high temperatures in the low 90s. Along both the immediate gulf coast as well as the majority of the east coast metro, temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A rinse and repeat weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the work week into the weekend as easterly flow continues and we remain mostly dry. A weak frontal boundary will pass through, or what`s left of it, on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicates a slight rise in moisture (1.4-1.6") and potential for scattered light showers (30- 40%) across South Florida. The additional support of diurnal heating and sea breezes will help build quick-moving light showers during the afternoon. Unfortunately, the WPC QPF forecast is not optimistic about how much rainfall we will receive. Deep-layer ridging will remain established across the western Atlantic waters through the end of the week with light synoptic flow aloft. Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep rainfall to a minimum. Outside of a few shallow-level stray showers, the stretch of dry and warmth will continue with drought conditions continuing to worsen. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR prevails for the 18Z TAF period. Winds out of the E/SE at 10-15 kts with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. E/SE winds lighten to around 5 kts tonight before increasing out of the east again tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Easterly winds are expected to remain for the rest of today and into early this week across our local Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic through Monday and a foot or less in the Gulf. Seas will start to rise in the Atlantic for the mid-week period as a moderate to fresh breeze re-develops. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A high risk of rip currents will prevail at Palm Beach county beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents remaining across Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. As easterly flow remains with us for the foreseeable future, the elevated rip current will persist along the east coast for much of this upcoming work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Although winds will remain light across the region this afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just below critical levels (low to mid 30s) across inland southwestern Florida. This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 84 73 82 / 0 10 10 20 West Kendall 68 87 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 71 86 72 84 / 0 10 10 20 Homestead 70 84 72 82 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 72 80 / 0 10 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 72 83 72 81 / 0 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 72 87 73 85 / 0 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 69 84 71 81 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 71 85 72 82 / 0 10 20 20 Naples 68 88 68 87 / 0 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228324 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 318 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build into the area from the north through Monday. N-NE winds on the front end will advect dry and cool air into the area with dewpoint temps down in the 40s across much of the area through Mon. Some mid to high clouds will mix with the sun today, but should see plenty of sunshine on Monday. Temps tonight will drop out after sunset with near calm winds leading to lows just below 50 in most spots inland of the coast. Highs tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today with mid to upper 70s. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will start to becoming more onshore with a healthy sea breeze in the afternoon along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through the short term period as mid level ridge is strong over the Southeast, with surface high pressure centered offshore. One more night of below normal temps Monday night with lows in the low 50s (upper 40s in cold spots) due to clear skies and calm winds. Warm and sunny Tuesday with highs in the low 80s. Near normal low temps Tuesday night, thanks to WAA, in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather continues through Thursday as subsidence from ridge aloft maintains influence. Low-level WAA will push temps above normal, in mid to upper 80s during the day and low 60s during the night. Ridge finally breaks down, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and decent mid-level lapse rates leading to increased instability Friday afternoon. Currently have 30-40% pops Friday afternoon and evening for scattered convection. The next cold front is forecasted to move through Friday night into early Saturday as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes/Northeast. Pops linger into Saturday due to uncertainty in front timing and potential delayed arrival of dry air aloft. High pressure attempts to build in from the northwest next weekend, which would lead to (slightly) cooler temps. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the TAF period. Northeasterly surge is subsiding leaving NE winds less than 10 mph with a few higher gusts. Coastal terminals may experience a veering of winds to a more easterly direction for a few hours this afternoon in sea breeze, but generally winds will be light and will cut off after sunset, 00-01z and then pick back up slightly after 12z on Mon. As high pressure builds in, it will remain dry, but will see some passing mid to high clouds through tonight. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Monday... High pressure will build down from the north through Monday. A N-NE surge has subsided leaving winds manly around 10 kts with some higher gusts. Near shore winds were a bit gustier and more easterly in the aftn sea breeze. As the high shifts more eastward into Mon, the return flow will become more E and onshore with similar fairly light winds except for aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will be around 2-4 ft through Mon with a longer period easterly swell mixing in. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-advisory marine conditions expected through the end of this week. High pressure just offshore will lead to light onshore flow through Tuesday before shifting to south- southwesterly late Tuesday through Friday. Wind speeds increase to 15-20 kts Thursday afternoon through Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally 2-3 ft through Thursday, increasing to 4 ft Friday, combination of E swell and building S wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. Check for any Coastal Flood Advisories for further details. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228323 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 301 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A lovely Sunday afternoon continues across the Florida Keys. GOES-19 visible imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy skies along the island chain as a few strips of fair weather cumulus streamers bubble off of the Lower and Middle Keys. To the north, skies are almost perfectly clear in the lee of mainland Florida while a widespread cumulus field traverses through the Straits of Florida. All of these clouds around to talk about, and yet KBYX radar has been mostly free of shower returns with one or two weak cells occasionally pulsing up on the southern most edges of our waters. Meanwhile, gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes prevail along the Reef leaving temperatures on the island chain ranging from the lower to mid 80s with a spot or two reading in the upper 80s due to being further inland away from the east shoreline. As nice as these lulled breezes have been, they are not expected to last in the short term. The surface high promoting these winds centered just north of The Bahamas will merge with larger high building along the Eastern Seaboard tonight. Easterly breezes will gradually freshen tonight through tomorrow becoming fresh by tomorrow night as the high conglomerate strengthens. Dry conditions will also prevail in the short term with not too much change expected in our airmass resulting in near nil PoPs for the next 24 hours or so. That will change tomorrow night however, as moisture is advected along the eastern periphery of the ridge towards our CWA. This somewhat backdoor addition of moisture will raise PoPs into the slight chance category. Opted with 20% rain chances on Tuesday when guidance suggests the bulk of the moisture will arrive. The rest of the forecast looks to set up somewhat of a routine pattern as synoptic pieces remain generally unchanging for the rest of the week. High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes with overnight peaks and daytime lulls. Winds are expected to be strongest sometime Tuesday night as a strong mid latitude system rakes through New England into the western North Atlantic. Breezes will gradually subside by later this week as the high pivots out into the Atlantic north of The Bahamas. Pulses of increasing winds along with the fresh moisture introduced early on in the week will allow for near normal rain chances for the rest of the period baring any unforeseen forcing. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an area of high pressure along the Atlantic coast of southeastern U.S. will continue to support gentle to moderate easterly breezes today and tomorrow. Breezes will freshen into Monday night starting a somewhat diurnal trend of peaking overnight and lulling during the day. By the end of the week, breezes will slacken to gentle to moderate once again. The overall pattern will remain dry, but occasional pushes of moisture may lead to some isolated showers throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR criteria and easterlies near 10 knots will prevail at EYW and MTH for the 18Z TAFs. FEW to SCT shallow cloud layers will be present this afternoon as weak cloud lines pulse north of EYW. Near surface winds will slightly veer east southeasterly with stray gusts expected overnight. Winds will start to trend upwards late in the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1881, the daily record high temperature of 91F was recorded in Key West. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April at Key West. Temperature data for Key West date back to July 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 84 75 84 / 0 0 10 10 Marathon 75 82 75 82 / 0 0 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228322 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Moisture will increase over the next day or so as a weakening frontal boundary drifts south toward Florida. We`re already beginning to see some hints of this with isolated showers popping up over north central parts of the Florida peninsula. The deeper moisture will move south into the Nature Coast and central Florida peninsula during Monday with increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Highest PoPs, 60 to 70 percent, will be over the northern Nature Coast, with chances decreasing as you south to around 20 percent across southwest Florida. Convection will linger into early Monday night then dissipate. On Tuesday easterly flow will increase with the deepest moisture along the west coast coastal counties. However, models indicate that the moisture will be shifting west during the afternoon and evening out into the gulf. There should still be enough moisture when combined with daytime heating to allow for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm near the coast, especially along the sea breeze that will be pinned close to the coast. For the remainder of the work week high pressure will build in from the northeast with drier air returning. Then during next weekend an upper level trough and associated front will be moving across the eastern U.S. with the boundary settling into north Florida. Deeper moisture will once again return along with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. The west coast sea breeze will continue to move inland this afternoon and evening shifting winds to westerly at around 10 knots. Winds will diminish and become light east to southeast later this evening and overnight then increase to 5 to 10 knots during Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A frontal boundary approaching from the north will bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, then high pressure rebuilds in for the rest of the week. No headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Moisture will increase Monday and Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches the region bringing a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will rebuild into the area midweek with warm dry weather returning. Relative humidity values could drop to near critical levels over inland areas south of Interstate 4 Monday afternoon, but winds will remain less than 15 mph with no Red Flag conditions anticipated. Easterly winds are expected to increase on Tuesday which will lead to rather high dispersions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 92 72 89 / 0 20 30 30 FMY 68 93 69 90 / 10 20 20 30 GIF 67 93 69 87 / 10 30 30 20 SRQ 68 89 69 88 / 0 10 20 30 BKV 62 93 65 88 / 10 50 40 20 SPG 72 88 73 87 / 0 10 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1228321 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 305 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery conditions continue into tonight and skies clear. High pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday. Dry and mild conditions continue Tuesday, but a cold front arrives mid week. After a few showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. A more prolonged period with a chance for showers late this week as a low pressure passes nearby. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Key Messages... * Gusty winds continue through this evening * Skies clear overnight Winds gusting to 35 mph -- and up to 45 mph in the higher terrain -- before the sun goes down tonight, then they will begin to drop off. Breezy conditions are expected to persist overnight and winds shift to the northwest. The cold pool aloft will move east going into Monday morning and a milder airmass will begin to make its approach, raising 925 mb temperatures back up to near 10C and 850 mb temperatures around 5C. The clouds will exit with the colder airmass. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Dry and warm with little wind High pressure shifts over the region along with mid-level ridging, which will stop the wind and increase temperatures. The milder airmass moves in, and daytime mixing will aid in warming the surface. The high`s center will sit to our south, leading to winds shifting more S to SW and WAA also increasing temperatures at the surface. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 70s, with the Cape and Islands slightly cooler in the low to mid 60s. Winds are expected to calm Monday night, and along with clear skies, radiational cooling will likely take hold. Continued to blend CONSMOS guidance in to account for the cooler low temperatures in areas known to radiate well. Lows in these areas (Martha`s Vineyard, parts of the interior, and areas along the I-495 corridor) will likely dip in to the low 40s. Elsewhere, expect lows in the low 50s and upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry conditions Tuesday. Few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. * Near seasonable temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. While Thursday is dry, rain chances return for Friday into Saturday. Expecting mainly above normal temperatures for this portion of the forecast. Although temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday should be closer to normal for early May due to a high pressure moving across northern New England. Another period of near normal temperatures is possible next Sunday as another high pressure should be approaching our region. Mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday. There is a low risk for a few showers ahead of a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, this front is somewhat moisture-starved. Clouds are likely to be more prevalent than showers. Where it does rain, rainfall generally no more than a few hundredths. A greater risk for rainfall is anticipated for a period or two between Thursday night and Saturday night. This is when we should see a low pressure move across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence River valley. The fronts associated with this low pressure will take some time to clear southern New England. The warm front is more Thursday night into Friday, with a cold front passage more Friday night into Saturday. A secondary cold front my cross our region Saturday night as well. Not thinking this entire period will be a washout, but we will need to keep an eye out for some wet weather at times. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Earlier gusts to 30-35 kt in the afternoon/evening will drop off overnight, ranging to around 25 kt. Monday and Monday Night: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts less than 15 kt before 18z. Winds shift W to SW before going calm across much of the region. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Monday... NW winds will continue to gust to 25 kt tonight with seas at 3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue tonight through tomorrow morning before winds start to drop off during the day with the arrival of high pressure. Monday Night... Seas will recede heading into Monday night, with heights only up to 3 ft. Winds shift from NW to SW. Winds to 10 kt will be possible over the waters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1228320 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns through Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for Tuesday through the latter half of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cool down arrives next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Breezy this afternoon with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. - Mainly clear and cool tonight with upper 30s to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s coastal areas. Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s inland, with highs in the lower 70s still looking good inland, with cooler upper 60s likely to be found along the immediate coast. Pressure gradient between the high to the west and low pressure over Atlantic Canada is still compressed enough to allow for gusty winds through the late afternoon. NW winds continue to gust to ~20-25 mph inland and ~25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Additionally, with the well- mixed environment, RH values are already in the 25-30% range inland, and will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore) over the next few hours. However, given yesterday`s rainfall and with most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears greatly mitigated, and mainly below critical IFD thresholds. Good radiating conditions will bring the coolest night of the next week or so late tonight into Monday. Winds quickly relax this evening, as high pressure settles over the region. Look for early morning lows falling into the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s across the SE coast. There are likely to be a few upper 30s along the US-15 corridor NW of Farmville late tonight, and have undercut the guidance by a few degrees in these areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. Expect light/calm winds, and dry, mostly clear/sunny conditions to prevail tomorrow, with only a modest increase in afternoon CU on Tuesday (especially along the coast) with developing return flow. A slow moderating temperature trend ensues tomorrow that will persist for much of the week ahead. Look for highs in the mid 70s for most inland areas on Mon, with highs in the low- mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, previously referenced developing return flow brings increasingly breezy conditions on Tuesday, with gusts to ~20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. This will result in afternoon min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Increasingly warm weather is expected for much of the latter half of the week, with highs warming well above climo normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered late afternoon and evening showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed, though staying well to our NNW. Aloft, a highly amplified sub- tropical ridge builds along the east coast through late week, with a shortwave trough lifting NE from the south- central plains Wed into the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough eventually phases with a longwave trough dropping S from the Canadian Prairies and upper midwest on Thu, with that system then crossing to the east coast next weekend and finally kicking that strong cold front through the region late Fri into Sat. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast, while a ridge builds across the central CONUS that will eventually spread east next week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast, allowing for well above normal temps to persist through the latter half of the work week. Highs in the 80s (mid to upper 80s inland) Wed and Thu, with increasing clouds Fri ahead of the frontal passage cooling temps down slightly back into the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and T-Storms are possible both Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings, though with weak, mainly uni- directional shear expected, would anticipate storm timing to be mainly diurnally-driven, lasting from mid to late afternoon to early evening. The strong cold front finally gets pushed through the area on Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs falling back in the 70s for next weekend, with lows back into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Mainly clear/VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some SCT CU/SC will continue to clear through early afternoon, leaving mainly SKC conditions this aftn and tonight. NW winds remain gusty this afternoon, averaging 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) this afternoon with winds remaining 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt elsewhere. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this period, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by later Wednesday and Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this afternoon/evening as NW winds slowly diminish behind a cold front. - Calmer conditions return tonight through the first half of Tuesday. - Additional SCAs increasingly possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night. NW winds are gradually subsiding this afternoon as low pressure moves through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 4 PM for the coastal waters, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Rappahannock River and through 7 PM for the upper Chesapeake Bay. Headlines were cancelled for the York and James Rivers and Currituck Sound late this morning. Winds turn to the N at 10-15 kt tonight and become light/variable Monday as high pressure settles over the region. The high shifts offshore for the middle of the week, with S-SW winds expected for most of the Tuesday-Friday timeframe. SCAs are looking likely later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a belt of stronger winds aloft move over ahead of a weakening cold front, with probs for sustained winds >18 kt 50-80% on the Chesapeake Bay and 80- 100% on the coastal waters. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wednesday through Thursday, with SCAs again possible Friday as another cold front approaches the waters. 2-3 ft waves on the Chesapeake Bay diminish to 1-2 ft Monday- Tuesday, with 3-4 ft seas today becoming ~2 ft Monday-Tuesday. Waves/seas increase to 3-4 ft Tuesday night, though there is some potential for the northern coastal waters to touch 5 ft. Waves/seas again subside Wednesday into Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-635-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228319 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 247 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 As the sea breeze marches its way inland combined with diurnal afternoon heating, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon, mostly along and north of I-10. Most showers and storms will fade after sunset. However, as a backdoor cold front begins approaching our area from the northeast, a few lingering showers and maybe an isolated storm are possible in the far northeastern parts of our area (Turner, Ben Hill, and Irwin Counties) during the overnight hours. Otherwise, yet another round of fog is expected tonight across the Alabama and Florida counties. Some of the fog in the Panhandle, just like the last few mornings, could be dense in spots. Lows will be in the 60s. The backdoor cold front will continue to slide southwestward farther into our area Monday. Isolated showers and storms will develop along the front over south central Georgia during the late morning before colliding with the sea breeze boundaries. Thus, the greatest focus for showers and storms will be along the I-75 corridor eastward into the Big Bend. PWATs increase slightly to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, which may result in better coverage of showers and storms, even in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama where storms will be more forced by the sea breeze. Rain chances are higher than recent days with about a 30-60% chance for most places. Regarding the strength of storms, some strong storms are possible given deep-layer shear of about 20 kt and plenty of instability. DCAPE values aren`t particularly high, but they`re non-negligible around 700-800 J/kg. Thus, the main hazards with tomorrow`s storms will be strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning. Highs will have a large gradient across the area. Temperatures will reach the low 80s in the northernmost areas up to the low 90s in interior parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Above average temperatures and humid weather continues over the next several days, with the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with the sea breeze and again Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches. Fog potential is less certain each morning. Fog potential will be tempered to patchy on Tuesday morning due to elevated easterly winds, but should be greater by Wednesday morning as winds relax. Meanwhile, the east coast sea breeze should pool enough moisture for scattered showers Tuesday afternoon and evening with a thunderstorm possible, although instability is fairly scant. The region will be more under the influence of the ridge in the Southwest Atlantic on both Wednesday and Thursday, with mainly dry weather expected. A cold front approaches on Friday and leads to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. Instability and shear may support some strong storms with gusty winds on Friday, especially north-west of the FL Big Bend. The front looks to slow as it becomes more parallel to the mid-level flow, which may keep diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into next weekend, at least Saturday. With that, it`s also questionable if those more comfortable dew points make it southward into the region this weekend, especially the FL Counties. Highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day away from the gulf coast through Friday, with dew points in the mid-60s (overnight lows), which is very warm and humid for late April. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Isolated TSRA will begin develop in the next few hours near DHN and ABY. Some SHRA may persist in the late night hours near and north of ABY. Another round of fog is expected tonight at ECP and TLH with DHN on the fringe with MVFR vsbys to start. Some of the fog could be dense again near ECP, which is accounted for in a TEMPO group. Meanwhile, an IFR stratus deck will move in from the northeast to ABY, DHN, and VLD late tonight into early Monday. Isolated TSRA will begin develop near VLD after 15z, which is accounted for in a TEMPO group. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The coastal waters will be increasingly under the influence of a ridge of high pressure over the southwest Atlantic with east to southeast winds that will become fresh each night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, winds closer to the gulf coast will become onshore each day due to the sea breeze. On Thursday and Friday, winds turn more southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1 to 2 feet, except a bit higher at times over the offshore waters and near the inlets. Morning fog is also possible near the protected waters through at least Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Generally south to southeast transport winds around 5-15 mph are expected over the next several days. This combined with generally high mixing height will result in good dispersions each afternoon through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the area Monday late morning into the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms remain possible on Tuesday with mostly dry weather on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning. Patchy fog is expected across the area over the next few nights. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 No flooding is expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 65 89 66 / 10 10 50 20 Panama City 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 30 10 Dothan 90 66 87 66 / 20 20 40 30 Albany 90 66 83 65 / 30 30 40 20 Valdosta 95 67 87 66 / 20 20 60 30 Cross City 92 64 90 64 / 0 0 60 30 Apalachicola 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228318 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 235 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns through Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for Tuesday through the latter half of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cool down arrives next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Breezy this afternoon with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. - Mainly clear and cool tonight with upper 30s to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s coastal areas. Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s inland, with highs in the lower 70s still looking good inland, with cooler upper 60s likely to be found along the immediate coast. Pressure gradient between the high to the west and low pressure over Atlantic Canada is still compressed enough to allow for gusty winds through the late afternoon. NW winds continue to gust to ~20-25 mph inland and ~25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Additionally, with the well- mixed environment, RH values are already in the 25-30% range inland, and will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore) over the next few hours. However, given yesterday`s rainfall and with most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears greatly mitigated, and mainly below critical IFD thresholds. Good radiating conditions will bring the coolest night of the next week or so late tonight into Monday. Winds quickly relax this evening, as high pressure settles over the region. Look for early morning lows falling into the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s across the SE coast. There are likely to be a few upper 30s along the US-15 corridor NW of Farmville late tonight, and have undercut the guidance by a few degrees in these areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. Expect light/calm winds, and dry, mostly clear/sunny conditions to prevail tomorrow, with only a modest increase in afternoon CU on Tuesday (especially along the coast) with developing return flow. A slow moderating temperature trend ensues tomorrow that will persist for much of the week ahead. Look for highs in the mid 70s for most inland areas on Mon, with highs in the low- mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, previously referenced developing return flow brings increasingly breezy conditions on Tuesday, with gusts to ~20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. This will result in afternoon min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Increasingly warm weather is expected for much of the latter half of the week, with highs warming well above climo normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered late afternoon and evening showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed, though staying well to our NNW. Aloft, a highly amplified sub- tropical ridge builds along the east coast through late week, with a shortwave trough lifting NE from the south- central plains Wed into the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough eventually phases with a longwave trough dropping S from the Canadian Prairies and upper midwest on Thu, with that system then crossing to the east coast next weekend and finally kicking that strong cold front through the region late Fri into Sat. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast, while a ridge builds across the central CONUS that will eventually spread east next week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast, allowing for well above normal temps to persist through the latter half of the work week. Highs in the 80s (mid to upper 80s inland) Wed and Thu, with increasing clouds Fri ahead of the frontal passage cooling temps down slightly back into the low to mid 80s. Scattered showers and T-Storms are possible both Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings, though with weak, mainly uni- directional shear expected, would anticipate storm timing to be mainly diurnally-driven, lasting from mid to late afternoon to early evening. The strong cold front finally gets pushed through the area on Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs falling back in the 70s for next weekend, with lows back into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Sunday... Mainly clear/VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some SCT CU/SC will continue to clear through early afternoon, leaving mainly SKC conditions this aftn and tonight. NW winds remain gusty this afternoon, averaging 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) this afternoon with winds remaining 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt elsewhere. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this period, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by later Wednesday and Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - NNW winds around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt will continue through mid morning before slowly diminishing today. - SCAs continue for all zones through at least late this afternoon. - Calmer conditions return tonight into the first half of the week. Deepening low pressure is tracking from northern New England toward Atlantic Canada early this morning and the cold front that crossed the waters last evening is now well to our south. As expected, N-NW winds are averaging ~25 kt with frequent 30-35 kt gusts. Occasional gusts to 40 knots have been noted at elevated terminals. These elevated N-NW winds are expected to continue through 7-9 AM before gradually diminishing during the day today. Wind speeds are expected to average 15 kt by early evening. SCAs remain in effect for all zones until 4 PM (7 PM for the bay N of New Pt Comfort). While there will be an additional weak push of CAA tonight, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds now aob 10%. Therefore, have kept the SCA end times as is. Light onshore flow is expected on Monday as high pressure builds overhead. The high moves offshore Mon night/Tue, allowing the winds become southerly and increase to 15 kt by Tue aftn. SCAs potentially return (mainly on the bay/Lower James) by Tuesday night/early Wednesday AM due to 15-20 kt SSW winds. While there is still some uncertainty at this time range, local wind probabilities for >18kt are 50-90% on the bay for a few hours Tue night/early Wed. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wed through Thu. Waves and seas are 3-5 ft/4-6 ft at this hour and will remain elevated through much of the day today before dropping below SCA criteria this evening. Am generally expecting 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing to 3-4 ft/2-3 ft by Tue night/ Wednesday AM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-635-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228317 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 230 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The backdoor cold front that we have been monitoring recently is forecast to continue to drop southward from South Carolina and GA waters southward into southeast GA and northeast FL through tonight. Low level flow will transition to east to northeast over all the zones by late tonight due to the front and the effects of the east coast sea breeze. As far as temps rest of today, inland temps will get into the lower 90s, with coastal areas more so in the mid 80s. The orientation of the front and the associated increase in moisture and instability will lead to enhanced rain chances for showers and isolated developing storms across southeast GA and into far northeast parts of our FL zones through tonight. Recent radar confirms some initial development of isolated showers near the Altamaha River Basin at 2 PM. Chances for a few thunderstorms will be across southeast GA late aftn and this evening, more especially, as instability is better there. As the airmass cools later tonight the chance for thunder will transition more over the coastal land zones as well as the marine zones. Specifically, after midnight, the better instability for shower and a few storms will be from about St Augustine northward to Jekyll Island and inland as far as Charlton, Ware, and Brantley counties. The thunderstorm threats are mainly heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and some small hail. Lows tonight will inch up compared to the past few days in the mid 60s inland to around lower 70s coast. Some patchy fog possible late tonight across Putnam, Marion, Alachua, and Gilchrist counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwest to southeast oriented front will lay out across SE GA Monday morning, then slowly move southwest across forecast area through the day. The front will be across the I75 corridor later in the afternoon. This front will be the focus for convection as it move across area Monday. At this time the best chances for precipitation will be over SE GA in the morning, then over the I75 corridor in the afternoon and evening. With diurnal heating peaking as the front moves across the I75 corridor, this convection could become strong with heavy rains. A broad range in temperatures is expected Monday due to the northeast to southeast moving boundary. Highs along the coast in the upper 70s to around 80 will be common, while highs over inland NE FL will rise to near 90. As high pressure builds to the northeast Monday night, the front will push out of the area. Convection will dissipate Monday evening with loss of diurnal heating. Above normal lows forecast for Monday night. High pressure will be centered to the northeast Tuesday. Convection is possible inland toward the I75 corridor in the afternoon due to diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions. Highs Tuesday will be above normal. High pressure centered to the east northeast will continue to provide ridging across the area into Tuesday night. Near normal low for Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will remain centered to the east northeast Wednesday, then more toward the east Thursday providing for a stretch of dry weather. The high will begin to move to the southeast Friday, as a trough moves southeast across SE GA. A few showers and storms, mainly north of I10 will develop in response to the trough. The high will continue to move away to the southeast Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Saturday. Storms are expected to develop across the area in response to the front and diurnal instability. The front will sink south of the area Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures this period will trend above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR clouds at this time with cumulus bases around 4-6 kft. Still some chance of showers forming over the next few hours. These chances around the terminals through 00z are around or below 25 percent so will continue with a VCSH. Scattered showers and a few t-storms expected later tonight but not high chances to show anything more yet than PROB30 or VC. As the backdoor front moves in later today, cigs expected to lower first for SSI with MVFR possible there after 22z and continuing into the night. Chance of IFR at SSI remains relatively low at about 15 to near 20 percent so will continue to just indicate a scattered stratus deck there for. The chances for MVFR cigs at JAX and CRG have decreased so opted to delay these chances for now. The main problems for Monday will be occasionally low cigs and chances for showers and have left in scattered cumulus and VCSH, though GNV should overall be drier. Sfc winds are turning easterly for SSI, CRG, and SGJ, and will soon turn for JAX and VQQ this aftn. GNV more variable this aftn but may see a wind shift close to 00z. Easterly flow expected on Monday at 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Backdoor front will move into the northern forecast waters later today while drifting southward and into northeast FL by Monday. Increased east to northeast winds and building seas expected, with winds of about 15 kt. SCEC conditions look to be over most of the waters by midday Monday. Looks like winds will ease by Tuesday while seas still remain somewhat elevated due to long fetch of easterly winds. Peak in the sea state looks to be Monday into Monday night, moved up by 24 hours per guidance. The nearly stationary front should decay on Tuesday over northern FL. The high pressure ridge axis will then slowly shift south of the local waters by mid to late with winds shifting and increasing to southerly flow again on Thursday/Friday. Rip Currents: Onshore flow and surf near 2-4 ft, abnormally lower low tides continue to support a high risk of rip currents at area beaches through Monday. In in doubt, don`t go out. Elevated risk moderate risk, at least, remains on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SUN 4/27 JAX 94 (1986) GNV 96 (2011) AMG96 (1986) CRG93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 80 62 83 / 40 40 10 10 SSI 69 77 69 78 / 50 50 10 0 JAX 67 82 65 82 / 30 30 10 10 SGJ 68 81 67 80 / 30 30 10 10 GNV 64 89 64 85 / 10 60 40 20 OCF 65 90 66 86 / 10 80 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228316 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 132 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Message: - Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues through Monday A mid-level ridge continues to build over South Texas today, causing morning clouds to give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Late tonight into Monday morning, a mid-level shortwave ahead of a closed low over Utah will move from eastern Mexico into South-Central Texas. This shortwave interacting with an above normal moisture axis along the Rio Grande has a low chance (20%) of advecting showers that form over eastern Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country of South Texas Monday morning. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected through Monday afternoon with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts as apparent temperatures extend into the 90s, approaching 100. Breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph are expected this afternoon and Monday afternoon (slightly stronger) due to a tightening pressure gradient from a surface low progressing east of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Our main hazard remains the increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to a moderate risk of rip currents through Monday. Although swell periods may drop to 5-6 seconds, onshore winds will be stronger. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low to medium (15-40%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week. - Above normal temperatures continue through the upcoming week. - Cold front with showers and thunderstorms Friday? Tuesday`s forecast looks dry but moisture is progged to increase through the day with increasing rain chances by Tuesday night across the western portions of S TX. This is in response to an approaching long wave trough with embedded short waves tracking east across the area. The trough is progged to track across S TX on Wednesday leading to a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances across the northern CWA. Models indicate an MCS tracking across Central TX with the tail end moving across S TX through the day Wednesday. There remains uncertainty as to how far south this line of storms will develop. If the upper disturbance is slightly farther north, then S TX may not see any rainfall. If it is farther South, then rain chances will increase. A short wave Thursday will bring a low 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will be limited, and the cap will be stronger on Thursday resulting in the lower rain chances. Rain chances are forecast to increase to 30-40% by Friday with a frontal boundary approaching S TX. The front is expected to be weakening as it moves toward S TX and may stall just north or across S TX during the day Friday. The frontal boundary will provide low level moisture convergence for convection to focus along, and PWATs are progged to increase to around 1.6-1.7 inches. There remains uncertainty due to differences in timing and where the front ultimately stalls, if it even makes it to S TX. If it does make it into S TX, temperatures will only be 2-4 degrees cooler. Low (10-20%) rain chances continue into the weekend with additional embedded short waves tracking across the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions will transition to MVFR ceilings with periods of IFR possible early this evening. This will persist through late Monday morning before returning to VFR. Winds will be elevated with gusts up to 25 knots through this afternoon before diminishing. Expect this to occur again tomorrow around mid morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze today will slightly strengthen to a dominantly fresh (BF 5) breeze Monday with seas 3 to 4 feet. A fresh (BF 5) onshore breeze can be expected Tuesday with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions by Tuesday night. Onshore winds decrease to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) on Wednesday, then moderate (BF 4) by Thursday. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday increasing to a 30% on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Winds and humidity levels are expected to stay below critical thresholds through the week. However, elevated fire weather conditions will be approached over western Webb County Monday afternoon as relative humidity drops to around 30 percent with 20 ft winds around 20 mph. Additional brief elevated fire thresholds may be approached across portions of the Rio Grande Plains as minimum afternoon relative humidity values drop below 30% and Energy Release Component (ERC) values trend above 70% across Southern Webb County. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 86 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 72 97 72 97 / 20 20 10 0 Alice 71 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 84 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 97 72 96 / 20 20 10 0 Kingsville 72 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 81 74 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228315 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 221 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure builds in tonight through tomorrow. By Tuesday, high pressure shifts offshore and will remain anchored there into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM Sun...High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. The pressure gradient will relax some (especially early), and winds will become very light overnight if not decoupling entirely. As a result, great radiational cooling conditions are likely to develop, which will allow for temps to cool into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Sun...Upper level ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. The surface ridge to the north will slowly drift to east producing an onshore NE to E flow with skies remaining mostly clear. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Monday night into the weekend...Upper level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast into the end of the workweek with a weak upper trough passing by well to the north around midweek. At the surface, high pressure ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and gradually push offshore by Tue morning with this ridge remaining centered offshore into the end of the week as well. As a result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with SW`rly flow developing by Tuesday allowing for a WAA regime to set up across Carolinas. Lows will be in the in the 50s Mon night. By Tuesday low level thicknesses increase under the WAA regime supporting highs in the 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX and coast. As we get into Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated surface cold front stalling in Virginia with previously mentioned surface high settling in across the Sargasso Sea. This will keep the area under a WAA regime increasing temps even further into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX. The stalled front to the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening, though latest trends in forecast and ensemble guidance has shown a noticeable drying trend. So while we currently have PoP`s in the forecast won`t be surprised if we end up precip free on Wed. Beyond mid week, upper ridging finally pushes offshore with the approach of an upper trough coming in from the north and west. At the surface this will spawn a surface low in the Plains which will track NE`wards with its associated cold front pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Fri and Sat bringing our next potential threat for some unsettled weather. Currently have high end Chc PoP`s in place Fri afternoon and wont be surprised given current trends if we see likely PoPs across the area within the next few days. Some of the AI and ML severe products are hinting at some potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop with this front as well so will have to monitor this potential as we get closer to the weekend. Temps remain slightly above avg into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Afternoon/... As of 220 PM Sun...VFR conditions will prevail through Mon. Diminishing winds and clear skies are expected overnight. Low levels remain too dry for fog. On Mon high pressure will continue to ridge in from the north with continued light winds and clear skies. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging builds overhead and gradually pushes offshore through midweek bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 220 PM Sun...Small Craft conditions will continue into early this evening for residual 6 ft seas over the northern and central waters. High pressure will continue to build over the waters through Mon with N to NE flow prevailing. Current winds 10-20 kt late this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 kt this evening then increase to around 15 kt after midnight. Wind speeds should diminish again to 5-10 kt Mon afternoon while becoming more easterly. Seas are forecast to subside to 2-4 ft most waters overnight and Mon with 5 footers persisting over the outer central waters. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure will remain in control for the most part through the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions into about midweek or so. Winds will continue 5-10 kts Tue as high pressure builds overhead and pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to an E then SE then S`rly direction. Seas along our coastal waters will continue 2-4 ft. On Wed with the approach of a cold front, winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts coming from the SW with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW`rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ |
| #1228314 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Tough to beat a fcst of persistence. Despite a continued se/s llvl flow, prevalent mid/upper ridging in place will keep chances of precip minimal at best. Look for overnight-morning cloudiness followed by pcldy afternoons & evenings with lows around 70 and highs in the 80s. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 No major changes to the previous forecast. This week will feature warm and humid weather with the combination of onshore/southerly flow from the surface through the 700 mb layer and southwesterly flow aloft. This will result in a deep layer of moisture with PWAT values nearing 1.6" by mid-week. Along with the increase in moisture through the week, an upper-level low is projected to move into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday during the afternoon hours, courtesy of available moisture and pockets of enhanced lift. Rain chances will increase later Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weak cold front associated with the trough approaches from the west. Models seemed to have backed off on the boundary pushing into SE Texas, and instead have it retreating back into Central Texas just before it gets to the CWA. In any case, this is pretty late in the forecast period, and models seem to still be trying to grasp a consistent story. If the front does indeed push through by Thursday, we will see a brief period of cooler and drier air before the return of onshore flow. Even if the boundary does not push through, while we will miss out on the cooler and drier airmass, rain chances will continue through Saturday as weak disturbances pass overhead and interact with the available moisture. Highs for this week will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. Max heat index values will approach the low 90s. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, locations that receive rainfall on Thursday may observe cooler than forecasted high temperatures. Lows through the week will be in the low to mid 70s. Going into the weekend lows will be slightly cooler as temps drop into the mid to upper 60s inland and in the low 70s along the coast and potentially the Houston Metro. Adams && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions and 10-20kt SSE winds will prevail for the remainder of the daylight hours. Speeds will diminish this evening and we should see some MVFR stratus fill back in. There could be a few pockets of IFR cigs mixed in, but not expecting that to be widespread. Gradual transition back to VFR mid-late morning Monday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of next week with gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning or afternoon. The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly needed as early as Monday or Tuesday. The combination of abnormally high astronomical tides and the increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday. Tides at this level have been known to result in coastal flooding on Gulf-facing beaches. Be mindful if planning to travel to the beach this week with multiple hazards in the forecast. Adams && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 88 70 88 69 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 86 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 75 82 75 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228313 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through Monday night... Upper level shortwave energy that has topped an upper ridge stretching north over the Plains moves south along the east side of the ridge Sunday into Sunday night, allowing the ridge to become re- established Monday. Surface high pressure builds off the Carolina coast early in the coming week, with a ridge building southwest over the Southeast. A surface boundary that has stalled over the Southeast washes out and a more organized southeast to southerly flow becomes established over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western half of the Southeast in response. Even with the onshore flow, high moisture levels over the Southeast (1.4"-1.6") see a drop Monday into Monday night (to around 1") as subsidence created drier air in the mid and upper levels over the Gulf moves inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Already low rain chances Sunday (slight chance east of the Tombigbee River) decrease even further Monday as a result. Low level moisture remains high enough for patchy overnight fog to develop the next few days, though. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well above seasonal norms through the Near Term. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s well inland from the coast, low to mid 80s closer to the coast are expected Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, mid to upper south to the coast are expected Sunday and Monday nights. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today quickly settles to Low as organized onshore flow eases. /16 Tuesday through Saturday... An upper ridge pivots eastward over the southeast states through Wednesday, leading to dry and continued well above normal temperatures. The influence of the ridge lessens its grip the second half of the work week as it shifts east off the southeast US coast. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system approaches the lower MS River Valley Thursday. With this feature`s eastward advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by later in the day Friday. An increase in cloud cover and rain chances expected Thursday and Friday. The front pushes south Saturday and brings a return to drier weather. /10 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across nearly all of the area for the remainder of the day and into mid evening, with the exception being near isolated showers and storms late this afternoon and early this evening where brief IFR ceilings and vsby`s could occur. Later tonight, patchy fog will again develop across parts of the region, possibly reducing ceilings and vsby to IFR or even briefly LIFR at times. The fog should lift after sunrise Monday morning with VFR conditions then expected through 18Z. Surface winds will be light and somewhat variable today and tonight, then more predominately light southeasterly on Monday. DS/12 && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A light and variable, diurnally driven flow is expected into the coming week. As onshore flow becomes established Tuesday and remains so through the rest of the week, winds remain light to at times moderate, with a slow increase in waves as swell from the Gulf increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 86 65 86 66 85 68 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Pensacola 67 83 68 81 70 81 70 81 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 83 70 82 71 82 70 82 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 63 90 62 88 63 89 63 86 / 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 63 89 62 89 63 89 65 86 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 10 50 Camden 63 88 63 88 63 88 65 85 / 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 30 Crestview 62 89 62 87 63 87 63 85 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228312 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 154 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in today through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... Winds subsiding through this afternoon with some mid to high clouds mixing with the sun. Aviation discussion updated below foe the 18Z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sharp cold front/undular bore can be seen as a multi-banded thin-lined feature on radar and as a cloud band on satellite imagery dropping southward through the forecast area at this hour with a wind shift to north-northwesterly being observed across the boundary along with a band of low clouds as low-level moisture is lifted over the front. Temps are also warming as this initial surge mixes the air and pressure increases under the frontal wedge. Looking further upstream over central NC, a secondary surge of northerly flow can be seen as well, and this will bring the real cold advection with gusty north winds taking over late in the night and continuing through this morning. Most or all low clouds should clear the forecast area by sunrise with a mix of mid-upper cloudiness streaming overhead through today as vort maxes embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft pass through. Surface high pressure will build southward today, helping to relieve the pressure gradient through the day, causing gusty winds this morning to relax this afternoon. Highs will be tempered by cold advection ahead of this high pressure system, with mid-70s expected across the area. Tonight, with high pressure settling over central NC, the pressure gradient is expected to become weak. This should allow for light and variable winds this evening with some areas even going calm. Amid mainly clear skies and much lower dew points, a relatively chilly night is in store as great radiational cooling takes place away from the immediate coast. Expect upper 40s to low 50s away from the coast with mid-upper 50s along it. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centers itself over eastern NC on Monday leading to another dry day with a sunny sky and aftn sea breeze. Temps right at normal levels for late April...highs in the mid/upr 70s with nighttime lows ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous thinking remains on track this period, with above normal temps and increasing rain chances late in the week. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s Tuesday increase to the low/mid 80s Wednesday as mid-level ridging and associated subsidence keep the forecast dry. Thursday is trending a bit drier as well, with most guidance slower with the ridge transitioning offshore...kept a slight chance of showers over NW areas during the aftn. Better rain chances (30-40% PoPs) then arrive Friday aftn/evening associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Kept some low PoPs for Saturday as the front could potentially take longer to cross the area with this being several days out. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the TAF period. Northeasterly surge is subsiding leaving NE winds less than 10 mph with a few higher gusts. Coastal terminals may experience a veering of winds to a more easterly direction for a few hours this afternoon in sea breeze, but generally winds will be light and will cut off after sunset, 00-01z and then pick back up slightly after 12z on Mon. As high pressure builds in, it will remain dry, but will see some passing mid to high clouds through tonight. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A sharp cold front will continue southward early this morning, pushing through the waters before sunrise. A north- northeasterly surge will follow 2-3 hrs behind this initial wind shift, with gusty winds in the 20-25 kt range through this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Outer portions of the coastal water zones may briefly see gusts just over 25 kts, mainly between 11-13Z, but this anticipated short period and small areal coverage precludes the need for an SCA at this time. Wave heights around 2-4 ft this morning will gradually subside this afternoon and evening to 1-3 ft for tonight. The wave spectrum will remain a combination of ESErly 1-2 ft swells with a period of 9 sec and 1-3 ft north-northeasterly wind waves which veer to northeasterly this afternoon. Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as sfc high pressure builds over the waters then gradually shifts farther offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt with seas steady at 2-3 ft, a combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228309 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 151 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area today. High pressure will prevail through much of this week. Another cold front could approach the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 PM, a couple of boundaries were across the forecast area. The primary boundary is the backdoor cold front sliding over SE GA. In addition, a sea breeze was clearly indicated by a fine line on KCLX and a cloud line on visible satellite. The sea breeze should advance inland through this afternoon. Minor adjustments will be made to hourly temperatures and wind based on latest observation trends. Today: The front will become increasingly more shallow the farther south it propagates and despite the northeast wind shift meandering into far southern Georgia later this morning and into the afternoon, the tightest moisture, instability and thermal gradients are forecast to remain across Southeast Georgia, most likely near the I-16 corridor. South of these gradients, there will be a risk for isolated to scattered showers/tstms as instability builds and convergence increases ahead of the sea breeze. In fact, convection could pop by early afternoon along the immediate Georgia coast with additional activity forming farther inland as the afternoon progresses. Pops range from near 0-5% north of the Savannah River to 20-30% south of I-16, highest over parts of Tattnal, Long, Liberty and McIntosh Counties. North of primary temperature/moisture gradients, a somewhat cooler and drier airmass will prevail with weak cold air advection noted. It will still remain warm, but it will feel a bit drier compared to the past several days. Highs will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s across Southeast South Carolina, mid-upper 80s across Southeast Georgia with a few spots likely topping out near 90. Cooler temperatures will persist at the beaches and near the immediate coast where breezy to windy conditions will be common in the pinched gradient that develops behind the front. Gusts could be as high as 30 mph at times at the beaches. The modified RAP sounding at KLHW shows weak to moderate instability (for late April) developing by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE running about 1500 J/kg and lifted indices running as low as -4C. There is about 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that develops during day, but with only weak-moderate instability expected, tstms will likely remain disorganized. DCAPE values do surge to a respectable 1000 J/kg with a considerable amount of mid-level dry air noted, but again, the marginal instability suggests the damaging wind potential is limited with the strongest storms likely producing winds no higher than 50 mph. Small hail could also occur within locally stronger updrafts. Tonight: A few showers could continue to percolate near the Altamaha River overnight as the remnants of the cold front meander nearby and interact with a piece of weak shortwave energy that is expected to pass through after midnight. Pops near 20% were maintained for much of the tonight period to account for this. Low clouds and possibly a little fog could also occur for counties nearest to the Altamaha River. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy outside of this area. Lows will range from the mid-upper 50s inland and north of I-16, upper 50s/lower 60s inland and south of I-16, lower-mid 60s across the coastal counties with upper 60s at the beaches. It will also remain a bit gusty at the beaches through the night, although winds will tend to lower through the early morning hours Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north on Monday as upper level ridging occurs. The leading edge of the front will be across far south GA. There could be just enough moisture and forcing along the Altamaha River to support isolated showers or tstms. Otherwise, relatively dry air will be spreading in from the north and temps will be near normal. A strong upper ridge will build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday while Atlantic high pressure strengthens. Dry and warm weather will ensue with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s inland on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Thursday as a relatively progressive pattern develops late week. A cold front could sag into the area on Friday, bringing an increase in rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 18Z TAFs, a couple of boundaries were between TAFs sites. A backdoor cold front was just upstream of KSAV, the front should pass over the terminal with northeast at the onset of the 18Z TAF. In addition, the sea breeze was between KCHS and KJZI, just east of KSAV, expected to advance inland of KCHS and KSAV by 21Z, shifting winds from the east. High resolution guidance indicates that showers and thunderstorms will remain south of KSAV through tonight, TAFs will remain dry and VFR. On Monday, the sea breeze should develop by mid-morning, followed by east winds, gusty at KJZI. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today: A cold front will drop south through the waters this morning resulting in a steady northeast. The gradient is expected to tighten in the wake of the front as high pressure noses south. This will result in northeast winds around 20 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt becoming common. Models typically under forecast speeds in the pinched gradient northeast flow regimes, and the forecast has been modified to reflect this. Seas will build 3-5 ft by this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for all waters except the Charleston Harbor. For the Charleston Harbor, winds look to remain just shy of advisory levels, peaking 15-20 kt with waves 1-2 ft. Tonight: Winds will slowly weaken through the night as the gradient begins to relax. Winds could fall below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by midnight, although gusts could remain close to 25 kt through the night across both Georgia marine legs. Seas will hold 3-5 ft. Monday through Friday: A decent ENE gradient will persist into Monday as strong high pressure continues to build from the north. Winds are expected to remain just below advisory criteria, with diminishing speeds through the day. For the remainder of the forecast period, conditions will stay well below headline criteria. Rip Currents: A continued 2 ft, 9-10 second swell will persist today. Breezy to windy conditions will occur over the beaches as a pinched gradient develops with the passage of a cold front. These conditions will push the rip current risk into the high category for all beaches. Rip currents were reported at both Hilton Head and Tybee Island Saturday. Both the number and strength of the rip currents will likely increase today. A moderate risk is in place for all beaches Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Positive tidal departures are expected to build today as northeast winds increase in the wake of a passing cold front. Tide levels are expected to peak around 7.5 ft MLLW (moderate) in the Charleston Harbor and 9.7 ft MLLW (minor) at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties as confidence in reaching advisory thresholds is the highest this far out. The advisory may need to be expanded to include the remainder of the lower South Carolina and the middle-upper Georgia coast later today pending further refinements to the local Total Water Forecasts. The risk for at least minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides will persist into Tuesday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ354-374. && $$ |
| #1228311 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Decided to add some low-end POPs to capture the potential for a few afternoon thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries this afternoon. CAMs from the 12z model runs depict some convective development and 18z visible satellite does indicated some TCU beginning to show up. Lightning and brief gusty winds will be the main threats along with quick downpours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 There will be some activity around today and should be mainly along and north of a line from Slidell to McComb. But as the next few days go by, there will be less and less storms around. But the heat will build to around 90F for the first of the week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Strong capping through mid week will be the culprit for reducing the amount of storms around through Wed. But as the second half of the week starts, there will be more sh/ts around starting Thu. A front will move near the TX/LA border and stall but sending a few disturbances eastward for Thu. Another front will move into the area by the weekend keeping things unsettled. But most of this activity will be diurnally driven as well move into the weekend. And even though the risk level is not high, some of these storms could be strong or severe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 MVFR to VFR cigs expected for the remainder of the day with a fairly dense spread of CU across the region. Decided to add some PROB30 groups at many terminals to account for the potential of afternoon storms along sea breeze boundaries. Otherwise, VFR conditions the rest of this evening and overnight as cloud cover dissipates with loss of daytime heating. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will be centered directly over or just to the east of the waters through Wed which will result in light winds of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet on average. Winds will begin to rise to around 15kt by Thu but should remain less than 20kt through the end of the week outside any storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 87 66 87 / 20 0 0 0 BTR 66 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 66 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 84 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 65 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228310 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 138 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Fog wasn`t quite as widespread or long-lasting this morning and most places are already seeing full-on sunshine. That`s allowed temperatures to heat up a bit faster than forecast with some places already in the lower 80s. Thus, have nudged temperatures up a degree or so for this afternoon with most areas away from the beaches seeing the low to mid 90s today. Model guidance this morning lines up well with the previous forecast regarding rain chances today, so have not made any changes there. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from late this afternoon into this evening. The air mass will be marginally moist today. Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an axis of 1.3-1.4 inch values stretching from near Destin to Albany. Weak to locally moderate convective instability is expected this afternoon. A cap of warm and dry mid-level air will get partially eroded by a weak upper disturbance passing southeast through Georgia late today, and deep-layer bulk shear will reach to near 20 knots as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Lastly, we will have low-level focus spreading inland with the Panhandle seabreeze, and with a back door cold front that will spread southwest across Georgia starting this afternoon. So a lot of marginal factors will get a boost from the upper dynamics and low- level focus. Individual storms will not be especially strong or prolonged, but any thunderstorm is capable of gusty winds and lightning. In advance of the back door cold front, it will be hot. Highs will rise well above 90F over inland portions of the FL Big Bend region. Remember those routine summer hot weather tips, such as staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, and planning outdoor work during the cooler morning and evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwesterly upper level flow lightens and becomes northerly as it gives way to an upper level ridge building in from the west late Monday into Tuesday. As this ridge builds, the longwave pattern becomes more amplified across the eastern third of the country and surface high pressure will fill in from the northeast as a backdoor frontal boundary moves in. When combined with diurnal heating and low-level moisture, we should see scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary. The best probabilities are across our south-central GA counties and FL Big Bend counties. Additional coverage is likely along seabreeze boundaries, especially the Apalachee Bay seabreeze in the southeast FL Big Bend. Additional coverage is possible on Tuesday, but as the background front becomes more ill defined and the upper level ridge axis moves overhead, expect lesser coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures will continue to remain well above normal, and in the upper 80s and around 90, but with the backdoor front moving in some areas across GA will at least see temperatures a little closer to normal in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Upper level ridge breaks down through the week as our next system approaches the southeast US while surface high pressure moves east into the western Atlantic at the start of the period. The axis of the surface high will be elongated westward so expect flow to become east and southeasterly through the long term and then southerly by Friday and the upcoming weekend as the pattern becomes a little more active. Increasing rain chances can be expected by Friday and potentially into the weekend depending on how the upper level pattern evolves. None of these next few systems appears to bring significant rainfall, but at this point we`ll welcome anything we can get given drought conditions encroaching on the region. High temperatures will remain above normal and in the upper 80s. Some 90 degree days are possible until rain chances increase with the passing of the late-week system. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Isolated TSRA will begin develop in the next few hours near DHN and ABY. Some SHRA may persist in the late night hours near and north of ABY. Another round of fog is expected tonight at ECP and TLH with DHN on the fringe with MVFR vsbys to start. Some of the fog could be dense again near ECP, which is accounted for in a TEMPO group. Meanwhile, an IFR stratus deck will move in from the northeast to ABY, DHN, and VLD late tonight into early Monday. Isolated TSRA will begin develop near VLD after 15z, which is accounted for in a TEMPO group. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A bubble of high pressure will reside over the far northeast Gulf through Monday afternoon, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze the main driver of wind. Fog is possible each morning over the protected waters of the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Stronger high pressure will move down the eastern seaboard into the western Atlantic toward Bermuda from Monday night through Wednesday, bringing a turn to easterly flow. Nocturnal increasing in easterly winds can be expected in this pattern, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights. Seas will remain around 1 to 3 feet through the next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Late afternoon and evening air mass thunderstorms will be the main concern today and again on Monday. Individual storms will be short- lived and not especially strong, but storms will nonetheless come with gusty winds and lightning. The two focus areas will be over the inland Panhandle because of the seabreeze, and over the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley, thanks to a back door cold front slipping in from the northeast. Areas of locally dense fog are expected over Panhandle and southeast Alabama districts early this morning, then again early Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Rain chances increase on Monday and later in the upcoming week, but at this time amounts will generally be under an inch and no significant riverine or hydrological concerns are expected. This rainfall will also likely not be enough to diminish the D0 - abnormally dry - conditions in place per the latest drought monitor. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 66 89 66 / 20 10 40 10 Panama City 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 90 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 10 Albany 90 66 85 65 / 30 40 40 10 Valdosta 93 67 87 66 / 30 40 60 10 Cross City 92 63 90 64 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228308 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 139 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy, cool, and blustery conditions today. High pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday. Dry and mild conditions continue Tuesday, but a cold front arrives mid week which will return temperatures to more seasonable conditions Thursday into Saturday. After a few showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning the next chance for widespread rain comes Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Cool and blustery. A mid level trough/cold pool settles overhead for the second half of the weekend with 500 mb temps around -23C. Expect a good amount of low/mid level clouds beneath this cyclonic flow with a decent 850 mb LLJ bringing breezy conditions to the region, gusting as high as 40- 45 mph in the higher terrain of the interior. However, the strongest core of the jet doesn`t move overhead until late evening/early overnight when BUFKIT soundings suggest the boundary layer decouples which should keep any widespread potentially damaging wind gusts aloft. In the cooler post frontal airmass with little sun, high temperatures only make it into the 50s. Overnight clear skies return with high pressure moving overhead. The encroaching low/mid level ridge brings a milder airmass as well; lows bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key messages... * Warmer and less windy. Dry weather. High pressure ridging moves overhead. This both shuts down the wind and pumps up the temperatures. The center of the high moves just south of SNE on Monday and low level winds begin to back to the S; plenty of sun and low level WAA allow high temps to reach into the mid 70s on Monday making for a pleasant late April day, quite a bit warmer than average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry conditions Tuesday. Few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. * Near seasonable temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. While Thursday is dry, rain chances return for Friday into Saturday. Monday Night through Wednesday: Monday night there is the potential for cooler temperatures because of radiational cooling, did blend in the cooler CONSMOS guidance which gave lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s across interior southern and known areas that radiate well along the I-495 corridor and Martha`s Vineyard, elsewhere middle and upper 40s. The axis of the ridge shifts east Tuesday evening and a northern stream trough and cold front approaches from the west. Will have warm temperatures Tuesday from the middle to upper 70s, while at the coast still cooler in the 60s. SW flow on Tuesday ushers in higher PWATs, ahead of an approaching mid-level trough and surface cold front. While a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are possible, it looks the best forcing with the cold front comes too late as the best moisture exits east of New England before the cold front arrives. The timing of the cold front will dictate the high temperatures for Wednesday, thinking it could be a slow moving front, which may allow the coast plain to warm up nicely into the low and middle 70s, while those interior locations only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Cold front moves across the region and brings a shot of colder air across all of southern New England, widespread upper 30s to low 40s. Thursday through Saturday: Drier Thursday and seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s as weak high pressure briefly in control. But is quickly followed by unsettled weather and the return of rain on Friday and potentially into next Saturday with the passage of low pressure system to our northwest. Temperatures Friday and Saturday are in the upper 60s to near 70F. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Earlier gusts to 30-35 kt in the afternoon/evening will drop off overnight, ranging to around 25 kt. Monday and Monday Night: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts less than 15 kt before 18z. Winds shift W to SW before going calm across much of the region. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kts with seas of 3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through tonight across the eastern waters into Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay, with wind gusts to 25 kt and higher possible. Seas tonight ranging from 4-6 ft. Monday high pressure moves overhead and both winds and seas decrease. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232-250- 254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256. && $$ |
| #1228307 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 We are into a warm and fair weather pattern, but the middle of the week looks to see us shift back into a more active weather pattern when another front slogs into the region. Some of the top things to remember about the forecast into the new week: - Like many late spring fronts, this boundary will struggle to push much into our area, if at all. But where it does, there will be ample moisture available for locally heavy rains. A marginal risk of excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) is in place in the northern portions of the area on Wednesday, roughly north of a Brenham to Livingston line. - Temperatures today look to be very similar to yesterday, with inland locations reaching up into the upper 80s again. Warm conditions will persist into the work week, but some increased cloudiness should knock a couple degrees off of afternoon highs. - At area beaches, persistent onshore flow will gradually result in higher water levels at high tide, and increased threats of rip currents. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure and ridging is the name of the game over the northwestern Gulf this weekend. Surface analysis shows high pressure over the Louisiana coast, giving us persistent light to moderate onshore winds. This holds through the lower levels, but from 700 mb up, the ridge axis drifts back to the west over the western Gulf coast. This is a recipe for a warm, humid stretch with fair weather and that`s exactly what the forecast calls for. From a start in the upper 60s and around 70 degrees, we should get right back into the upper half of the 80s for all but the Gulf coast, which will get held back in the lower 80s by the moderating Gulf waters. While tonight looks like it will go very similar to this early morning, we may not reach quite as high in the afternoon, perhaps only into the middle to upper 80s, knocking just a few degrees off of today. The reasoning behind this is that the ridging setup looks to make its way a little more to the east as an upper trough digs into the Desert Southwest. We may even see a little bit of midlevel vorticity roll through. Ultimately, the result should be a little more afternoon cloudiness. Not a big difference, but enough to shave a bit of heat off the top. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Persistent southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to warm and humid weather for the majority of next week. High temperatures Tuesday through Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area with max heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Increased rain chances on Thursday may lead to localized cooler than forecasted high temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s for most of next week with perhaps a slight cool down heading into next weekend with lows in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level low will be moving into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Some isolated showers or storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon in SE Texas just thanks to increased moisture and PVA ahead of the trough. However, rain chances increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the associated weak cold front moves into the region. Some uncertainty on the timing (could be as early as midnight Wednesday night or as late as noon Thursday) and how far the cold front makes it into the region before stalling/retreating back north (could make it to I-10 or off the coast). Some cooler/drier air will likely filter into the region on Thursday behind the boundary, but onshore flow quickly returns bringing back warm, humid conditions. Passing weak disturbances aloft may trigger additional showers and storms Friday and Saturday, but coverage is looking limited at this time. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions and 10-20kt SSE winds will prevail for the remainder of the daylight hours. Speeds will diminish this evening and we should see some MVFR stratus fill back in. There could be a few pockets of IFR cigs mixed in, but not expecting that to be widespread. Gradual transition back to VFR mid-late morning Monday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of next week with gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning or afternoon. The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly needed by Tuesday or Wednesday. Abnormally high astronomical tides and the increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 88 69 87 70 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 87 70 85 71 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 0 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228306 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today - Warmer today with near record highs for some interior locations; isolated showers late in the day west of the Orlando metro. There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida this afternoon and early evening - Sensitive fire weather conditions continue today and into this week - Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) over the interior with occasional lightning strikes && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies. A weak "cool" front is situated over the western Atlantic and the southeastern US to the north of east central Florida which extends from low pressure (~1001mb) near the Maine coast. Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 70s with dew points in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally light from the south-southwest at 4-8mph. Mostly dry weather is expected today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop over portions of Lake, northern Volusia, western Seminole, and western Orange county into the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 4PM-9PM) as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Winds are expected to back onshore into the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze at around 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Seasonable to above normal high temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and the mid 80s to mid 90s are forecast over the interior to the west of I-95 under. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to approach near records at the Orlando Sanford International Airport (record high of 95 in 2017) and the Leesburg International Airport (record high of 93 in 2017). There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida. This level of heat effects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today...Weak high pressure ridge will remain draped across central FL, just shifted a bit south. This will result in a slightly delayed sea breeze, esp north of the Cape, so max temps will reach the mid 80s coast (even upper 80s Volusia coast) before the sea breeze knocks those temps down a bit this aftn. Max temps over the interior will reach the lower 90s, even a few mid 90s possible. Leesburg will have the best chance to equal/exceed its record high of 93F. A weakening/decaying frontal boundary across the deep South extending offshore GA will temporarily lose momentum and stall. While most areas will remain dry today, a slight increase in moisture across northern sections (PWATs ~1.25") should be sufficient to generate isolated showers as the seas breeze interacts with larger lake breezes (Lake George) and eventually a collision with the west coast sea breeze over Lake county/Villages late in the day. A small (1 FT) but very long period (13-14 sec) background ENE swell is impacting the surf zone. After collaborating with WFOs JAX and MIA, we have raised a High risk of rip currents at the beaches. On Mon, the decaying front and its assocd moisture will be shunted SW across the area as reinforcing high pressure pushes SE off the Carolina coast. With PWATs increasing ~1.5", isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast. This represents the best chance for rain in some time for parts of the area but most coastal locations esp south of the Cape will not see any rain. The best chance for showers and storms will be over the interior sections in the afternoon sparked by sea breeze interactions. There, a few of these storms Mon aftn/eve could be strong containing gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any lightning strikes will bring the risk of sparking brush fires. Tue-Sat...Breezy onshore flow coupled with sufficient low level moisture will support isolated onshore-moving showers from the Atlc early Tue. Drier air is forecast to advect from the east Wed-Thu as the ridge axis settles south into central FL so will maintain a dry forecast with PoPs 10% or less. The breezy onshore flow Tue will hold max temps to the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. But warming up mid week, reaching the lower 90s interior and mid 80s coast by Thu. Ridge axis slips south of the area by Fri which will promote a more S/SW flow, delaying the sea breeze and producing warmer max temps at the coast. Fri daytime looks mostly dry but a sea breeze collision on the east side of the peninsula late in the day may harness enough meager low level moisture and and instability aloft to generate isolated storms into Fri eve. A slightly better chance (~30%) for sea breeze storms exists on Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A weak Atlantic ridge axis will remain over the area today with light winds enhanced by the sea breeze near the coast in the afternoon. Reinforcing high pressure will push southeast and off the mid Atlantic coast Monday. Remnants of a decaying frontal boundary and its associated moisture will push southwest across the area, generating isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms Monday and Monday night. Breezy east winds around 15 knots Mon night and Tue will build seas 4 to 6 FT and produce poor boating conditions. A Caution headline looks likely for the offshore waters. Then high pressure ridge axis settles southward toward central FL and the adjacent Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday resulting in decreasing winds and subsiding seas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Pulled VCSH from all TAFs but KLEE due to shower chances decreasing in latest guidance and very dry observations. Sea breeze collision in vicinity of KLEE continues low but mentionable shower chances there. Continue to keep thunder mention out due to very low chances. E-ESE winds 8-12 kts decrease after around 22Z, becoming light/variable after around 04Z. Patchy ground fog possible in the early morning again. Winds out of the ESE-ENE wake back up late morning Monday, increasing to 10-15 kts in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Shower chances increase Monday after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Very warm and dry conditions are forecast today with continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower to near 35% across the interior this afternoon while holding above 40 percent along the coast where dewpoints and humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday as moisture and onshore winds increase before reducing back to 35-40% over the interior on Wednesday. Light winds today will be enhanced by an East sea breeze with speeds 10-15 mph. Maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior today with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally Good dispersion values are forecast today with Generally Good to Very Good Dispersions on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (~20-30% chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the potential to spark brush fires given the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 83 68 80 / 20 40 30 20 MCO 67 90 69 82 / 10 30 30 20 MLB 65 83 70 80 / 0 20 30 20 VRB 62 84 69 81 / 0 20 30 20 LEE 69 90 69 85 / 20 50 30 20 SFB 68 88 68 83 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 69 88 69 83 / 10 30 30 20 FPR 62 84 69 80 / 0 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228305 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft. This will produce very warm and dry weather across the region through Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. High temperatures today and Monday will range from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s along and west of the I-69E corridor. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s with increasing clouds. A modest to slightly enhanced pressure gradient will support breezy southeast winds, especially near the coast, today and Monday. Elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Dry weather will dominate the first half of the long term forecast period, as the center of 500 mb high pressure nearly directly over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually eases towards the east. A pattern shift will then occur later in the week, with a series of mid-level shortwaves riding within a west-southwest to east-northeast flow. This will produce a risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily beginning on Thursday. Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are also anticipated, aided by a breezy to windy onshore flow. In fact, winds may be strong enough on Tuesday to warrant a Wind Advisory for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley at that time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through 18z Monday....Latest GOES-East visible satellite imagery revealed a scattered deck of diurnally-driven VFR-MVFR cumulus clouds overhead with cloud bases ranging between 2,400-3,500 feet AGL and unrestricted visibilities. Through the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening, expect for ceilings to be predominantly VFR as daytime or sfc-based heating increases. Later this evening and especially tonight, after sunset, expect for dewpoint depressions to decrease and ceilings to lower to MVFR levels. Dewpoint depressions could lower enough for some mist to develop tonight into Monday morning. VFR-MVFR cigs Monday morning will give way to VFR ceilings later in the afternoon. Through this afternoon, it will be breezy at times with southeast winds 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts or so on an enhanced pressure gradient. These winds are expected to continue through the evening hours, possibly weakening slightly at night. During the day on MOnday, it will continue to be breezy at times with southeast winds 10-15 kts gusting as high as 30 kts. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 10 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas slightly under 3.9 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with a modest pressure gradient in place. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Laguna Madre today and Monday and on the nearshore Waters on Monday due to slightly stronger winds. A brief Small Craft Advisory cannot be entirely ruled out on the Laguna Madre each afternoon, if winds become more breezier than forecast. (Monday Night through Saturday) An enhanced pressure gradient will produce Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions along the Lower Texas Coast from Monday night through Friday. The approach of a weak cold front from the north will weaken the gradient for Saturday, allowing for lighter winds and lower seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 87 75 87 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 71 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 75 81 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 85 73 85 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228304 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1243 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 South Florida remains situated between a dipole of surface ridging today, with a ridge axis present in the Gulf in conjunction with a separate foci in the western Atlantic. Not much more exciting when looking aloft as there is a lack of synoptic forcing across the region with quite the stagnant vertical column in place. This morning`s 12Z sounding and the latest model soundings show the continuance of a stout mid-level subsidence inversion that will continue to stifle any real rain chances (outside of a few shallow- layer stray isolated showers advecting into the east coast metro areas via easterly flow). Given the lack of any synoptic influence aloft, the mesoscale will dictate the weather regime once again today with winds veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out an isolated shower this afternoon along the gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida but overall rain chances remain lackluster. The amplification of a deep-layer ridge across the southeastern United States on Monday will slow the progression of a backdoor frontal boundary propagating southwestward across the Florida Peninsula occurring in tandem with a weak upper level shortwave ridge-riding. With the weak boundary on our doorstep, periphery moisture associated with the frontal boundary in tandem with diurnal heating and convergence (localized ascent along the gulf breeze boundary) could set the stage for a few isolated showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida. There will still be considerable amounts of low-level dry air to contend with but if an updraft is able to sustain long enough, forecast model soundings from CAMS such as the HRRR, RAFS, and RAP show enough marginal instability to get a thunderstorm going across inland southwestern Florida. Given how dry the vegetation has become across our area and the isolated nature of any rainfall, any lightning strike could potentially spark new wildfires. High temperatures will be similar this afternoon and once again on Monday. The warmest temperatures are forecast for inland southwestern Florida with widespread high temperatures in the low 90s. Along both the immediate gulf coast as well as the majority of the east coast metro, temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A rinse and repeat weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the work week into the weekend as easterly flow continues and we remain mostly dry. Deep-layer ridging will remain established across the western Atlantic waters through the end of the week with light synoptic flow aloft. Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep rainfall to a minimum. Outside of a few shallow-level stray showers, the stretch of dry and warmth will continue with drought conditions continuing to worsen. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR prevails for the 18Z TAF period. Winds out of the E/SE at 10-15 kts with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. E/SE winds lighten to around 5 kts tonight before increasing out of the east again tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Easterly winds are expected to remain for the rest of today and into early this week across our local Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic through Monday and a foot or less in the Gulf. Seas will start to rise in the Atlantic for the mid-week period as a moderate to fresh breeze re-develops. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A high risk of rip currents will prevail at Palm Beach county beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents remaining across Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. As easterly flow remains with us for the foreseeable future, the elevated rip current will persist along the east coast for much of this upcoming work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Although winds will remain light across the region this afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just below critical levels (low to mid 30s) across inland southwestern Florida. This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 84 73 82 / 0 10 10 20 West Kendall 68 87 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 71 86 72 84 / 0 10 10 20 Homestead 70 84 72 82 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 72 80 / 0 10 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 72 83 72 81 / 0 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 72 87 73 85 / 0 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 69 84 71 81 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 71 85 72 82 / 0 10 20 20 Naples 68 88 68 87 / 0 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228303 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1120 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns through Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for the latter half of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cooldown by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1120 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s for most, cooler upper 60s along the coast. - Breezy this afternoon with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. - Mainly clear and cool tonight with upper 30s to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s coastal areas. Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley at midday. Forecast is largely on track as of this writing, with highs in the low to mid 70s still looking good inland, with cooler upper 60s likely to be found along the immediate coast. Good radiating conditions will bring the coolest night of the next week late tonight into Monday, with early morning lows settling into the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s across the SE coast. There are likely to be a few upper 30s along the US-15 corridor NW of Farmville late tonight, and undercut the guidance by a few degrees in these areas. Pressure gradient between the high to the west and low pressure over Atlantic Canada will still be compressed enough to allow for gusty winds through the afternoon. NW winds gust to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Additionally, with the well- mixed environment, RH values will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore). However, given yesterday`s rainfall (while generally light) and most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears below IFD threshold. Previous discussion... Winds diminish quickly this evening as high pressure builds into the area with calm winds expected tonight. Otherwise, temps as of 635 AM ranged from the upper 40s to around 50F for most to the mid 50s SE. The exception is interior Louisa County which was reading around 40F. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cool conditions are expected today with highs in the lower 70s for most (upper 60s to around 70F across the Eastern Shore). Recent satellite loops have shown scattered cirrus moving across the area with the HRRR notably keeping this cloud cover around through much of the day, particularly across the S half of the FA. As such, have increased cloud cover across this region to partly cloudy. Given the strong area of high pressure overhead tonight, calm winds, and clear skies, expect efficient radiational cooling overnight with lows likely ending up below model guidance. As such, have trended below NBM and leaned towards statistical guidance (MAV/MET) with lows in the low-mid 40s inland (most in the lower 40s) and upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast expected. Will note that some rural locations may drop into the upper 30s, however, temps should remain above frost headline criteria. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and dry conditions are expected early this week. High pressure remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. As such, clear skies and light/calm winds are expected Mon with partly cloudy skies Tue. Temps moderate both days with highs in the mid 70s for most Mon and low-mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, winds become SW and breezy Tue with gusts up to 20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. Otherwise, dry conditions continue with min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected from the middle to later part of the week with highs well above normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week with a shortwave trough moving from the central/southern Plains Wed to the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough phases with a longwave trough dropping S from Canada Thu, eventually moving into the East Coast next weekend. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast while a ridge builds across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast. This will allow for well above normal temps from mid to late week. Highs in the 80s (most in the upper 80s) Wed and Thu and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for the low to track farther N and for the front to stall near or N of the local area. As such temps have trended warmer for Thu. Scattered, mainly diurnal showers and storms are possible Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings. A strong cold front approaches the area Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs back in the 70s by Sat. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1120 AM EDT Sunday... Mainly clear/VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some SCT CU/SC will continue to clear through early afternoon, leaving mainly SKC conditions this aftn and tonight. NW winds remain gusty this afternoon, averaging 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) this afternoon with winds remaining 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt elsewhere. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday, before sliding offshore Monday night and Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout this period, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by later Wednesday and Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - NNW winds around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt will continue through mid morning before slowly diminishing today. - SCAs continue for all zones through at least late this afternoon. - Calmer conditions return tonight into the first half of the week. Deepening low pressure is tracking from northern New England toward Atlantic Canada early this morning and the cold front that crossed the waters last evening is now well to our south. As expected, N-NW winds are averaging ~25 kt with frequent 30-35 kt gusts. Occasional gusts to 40 knots have been noted at elevated terminals. These elevated N-NW winds are expected to continue through 7-9 AM before gradually diminishing during the day today. Wind speeds are expected to average 15 kt by early evening. SCAs remain in effect for all zones until 4 PM (7 PM for the bay N of New Pt Comfort). While there will be an additional weak push of CAA tonight, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds now aob 10%. Therefore, have kept the SCA end times as is. Light onshore flow is expected on Monday as high pressure builds overhead. The high moves offshore Mon night/Tue, allowing the winds become southerly and increase to 15 kt by Tue aftn. SCAs potentially return (mainly on the bay/Lower James) by Tuesday night/early Wednesday AM due to 15-20 kt SSW winds. While there is still some uncertainty at this time range, local wind probabilities for >18kt are 50-90% on the bay for a few hours Tue night/early Wed. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wed through Thu. Waves and seas are 3-5 ft/4-6 ft at this hour and will remain elevated through much of the day today before dropping below SCA criteria this evening. Am generally expecting 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing to 3-4 ft/2-3 ft by Tue night/ Wednesday AM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228302 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1052 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... Forecast on track with plenty of dry air advecting in with decent NE surge this morning. Beach Hazards Statement issued for New Hanover and Pender county beaches based on lifeguard reports of a strong longshore current present. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sharp cold front/undular bore can be seen as a multi-banded thin-lined feature on radar and as a cloud band on satellite imagery dropping southward through the forecast area at this hour with a wind shift to north-northwesterly being observed across the boundary along with a band of low clouds as low-level moisture is lifted over the front. Temps are also warming as this initial surge mixes the air and pressure increases under the frontal wedge. Looking further upstream over central NC, a secondary surge of northerly flow can be seen as well, and this will bring the real cold advection with gusty north winds taking over late in the night and continuing through this morning. Most or all low clouds should clear the forecast area by sunrise with a mix of mid-upper cloudiness streaming overhead through today as vort maxes embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft pass through. Surface high pressure will build southward today, helping to relieve the pressure gradient through the day, causing gusty winds this morning to relax this afternoon. Highs will be tempered by cold advection ahead of this high pressure system, with mid-70s expected across the area. Tonight, with high pressure settling over central NC, the pressure gradient is expected to become weak. This should allow for light and variable winds this evening with some areas even going calm. Amid mainly clear skies and much lower dew points, a relatively chilly night is in store as great radiational cooling takes place away from the immediate coast. Expect upper 40s to low 50s away from the coast with mid-upper 50s along it. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centers itself over eastern NC on Monday leading to another dry day with a sunny sky and aftn sea breeze. Temps right at normal levels for late April...highs in the mid/upr 70s with nighttime lows ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous thinking remains on track this period, with above normal temps and increasing rain chances late in the week. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s Tuesday increase to the low/mid 80s Wednesday as mid-level ridging and associated subsidence keep the forecast dry. Thursday is trending a bit drier as well, with most guidance slower with the ridge transitioning offshore...kept a slight chance of showers over NW areas during the aftn. Better rain chances (30-40% PoPs) then arrive Friday aftn/evening associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Kept some low PoPs for Saturday as the front could potentially take longer to cross the area with this being several days out. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front has cleared the terminals early this morning with a north-northeasterly wind surge poised to arrive over the next few hours, bringing gusty winds to around 20 kts through this morning. Upstream observations indicate transient MVFR cigs may follow behind the incoming wind surge, but these will be relatively short-lived as insolation helps to increase vertical mixing while increasing subsidence aloft brings drier air downward. Low-level winds weaken this afternoon as the gradient slackens, so expect the gustiness to subside as well. Otherwise, expect VFR to dominate the TAF period outside of any MVFR cigs this morning. High pressure centers itself over central NC tonight, with a weak pressure gradient supporting light winds at most terminals, except perhaps KLBT, where calm winds are more likely. Nevertheless, with dry and subsiding air aloft, conditions are not supportive for mist/fog growth beyond shallow ground fog, especially over sources of moisture. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A sharp cold front will continue southward early this morning, pushing through the waters before sunrise. A north- northeasterly surge will follow 2-3 hrs behind this initial wind shift, with gusty winds in the 20-25 kt range through this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Outer portions of the coastal water zones may briefly see gusts just over 25 kts, mainly between 11-13Z, but this anticipated short period and small areal coverage precludes the need for an SCA at this time. Wave heights around 2-4 ft this morning will gradually subside this afternoon and evening to 1-3 ft for tonight. The wave spectrum will remain a combination of ESErly 1-2 ft swells with a period of 9 sec and 1-3 ft north-northeasterly wind waves which veer to northeasterly this afternoon. Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as sfc high pressure builds over the waters then gradually shifts farther offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt with seas steady at 2-3 ft, a combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228300 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1034 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... Forecast on track with plenty of dry air advecting in with decent NE surge this morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sharp cold front/undular bore can be seen as a multi-banded thin-lined feature on radar and as a cloud band on satellite imagery dropping southward through the forecast area at this hour with a wind shift to north-northwesterly being observed across the boundary along with a band of low clouds as low-level moisture is lifted over the front. Temps are also warming as this initial surge mixes the air and pressure increases under the frontal wedge. Looking further upstream over central NC, a secondary surge of northerly flow can be seen as well, and this will bring the real cold advection with gusty north winds taking over late in the night and continuing through this morning. Most or all low clouds should clear the forecast area by sunrise with a mix of mid-upper cloudiness streaming overhead through today as vort maxes embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft pass through. Surface high pressure will build southward today, helping to relieve the pressure gradient through the day, causing gusty winds this morning to relax this afternoon. Highs will be tempered by cold advection ahead of this high pressure system, with mid-70s expected across the area. Tonight, with high pressure settling over central NC, the pressure gradient is expected to become weak. This should allow for light and variable winds this evening with some areas even going calm. Amid mainly clear skies and much lower dew points, a relatively chilly night is in store as great radiational cooling takes place away from the immediate coast. Expect upper 40s to low 50s away from the coast with mid-upper 50s along it. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centers itself over eastern NC on Monday leading to another dry day with a sunny sky and aftn sea breeze. Temps right at normal levels for late April...highs in the mid/upr 70s with nighttime lows ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous thinking remains on track this period, with above normal temps and increasing rain chances late in the week. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s Tuesday increase to the low/mid 80s Wednesday as mid-level ridging and associated subsidence keep the forecast dry. Thursday is trending a bit drier as well, with most guidance slower with the ridge transitioning offshore...kept a slight chance of showers over NW areas during the aftn. Better rain chances (30-40% PoPs) then arrive Friday aftn/evening associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Kept some low PoPs for Saturday as the front could potentially take longer to cross the area with this being several days out. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front has cleared the terminals early this morning with a north-northeasterly wind surge poised to arrive over the next few hours, bringing gusty winds to around 20 kts through this morning. Upstream observations indicate transient MVFR cigs may follow behind the incoming wind surge, but these will be relatively short-lived as insolation helps to increase vertical mixing while increasing subsidence aloft brings drier air downward. Low-level winds weaken this afternoon as the gradient slackens, so expect the gustiness to subside as well. Otherwise, expect VFR to dominate the TAF period outside of any MVFR cigs this morning. High pressure centers itself over central NC tonight, with a weak pressure gradient supporting light winds at most terminals, except perhaps KLBT, where calm winds are more likely. Nevertheless, with dry and subsiding air aloft, conditions are not supportive for mist/fog growth beyond shallow ground fog, especially over sources of moisture. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A sharp cold front will continue southward early this morning, pushing through the waters before sunrise. A north- northeasterly surge will follow 2-3 hrs behind this initial wind shift, with gusty winds in the 20-25 kt range through this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Outer portions of the coastal water zones may briefly see gusts just over 25 kts, mainly between 11-13Z, but this anticipated short period and small areal coverage precludes the need for an SCA at this time. Wave heights around 2-4 ft this morning will gradually subside this afternoon and evening to 1-3 ft for tonight. The wave spectrum will remain a combination of ESErly 1-2 ft swells with a period of 9 sec and 1-3 ft north-northeasterly wind waves which veer to northeasterly this afternoon. Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as sfc high pressure builds over the waters then gradually shifts farther offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt with seas steady at 2-3 ft, a combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228299 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A beautiful day is ongoing across the Florida Keys this morning. GOES-19 visibile satellite imagery depicts a few streams of fair weather cumulus drifting over the island chain with more dense coverage along a boundary passing to the south through the Straits of Florida. KBYX returns a couple shallow showers associated with this boundary, but nothing nearly like the convection observed yesterday morning. Mostly sunny skies over our land areas have allowed temperatures to make it up to near 80 throughout the island communities. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes along the Reef tract are lower than they were this time yesterday with a gradual freshening expected as we move into this evening. A surface high currently centered just north of The Bahamas is the main feature determining our sensible weather in the short term. Ridging will continue to build over southeast CONUS following today`s passage of a strong mid latitude system through New England. This will allow high pressure to strengthen along the Eastern Seaboard promoting a freshening of breezes into tomorrow night. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding is a return to form from a couple days ago with an inversion at ~850 mb splitting drier air aloft from more moist air near the surface. A PW just over 1 inch was observed in this profile with really only allowing for a few shallow showers like the ones in the Straits able to form. CIMSS MIMIC PW notes similar values upstream meaning PoPs will likely remain near nil for the next couple of periods. The forecast is on track with no changes required at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an area of high pressure along the Atlantic coast of southeastern U.S. will continue to support gentle to moderate easterly breezes today and tomorrow. A period of fresh breezes is expected during the middle of the week as the high pressure strengthens, but breezes will slacken again by the end of the week. The overall pattern will remain dry, but occasional pushes of moisture may lead to some isolated showers throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAFs. Shallow FEW to SCT cloud layers will track across the island terminals. Near surface winds will remain easterly near 10 knots with a stray gust. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1881, the daily record high temperature of 91F was recorded in Key West. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April at Key West. Temperature data for Key West date back to July 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 74 83 75 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 82 74 82 75 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228298 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1030 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Fog wasn`t quite as widespread or long-lasting this morning and most places are already seeing full-on sunshine. That`s allowed temperatures to heat up a bit faster than forecast with some places already in the lower 80s. Thus, have nudged temperatures up a degree or so for this afternoon with most areas away from the beaches seeing the low to mid 90s today. Model guidance this morning lines up well with the previous forecast regarding rain chances today, so have not made any changes there. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from late this afternoon into this evening. The air mass will be marginally moist today. Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an axis of 1.3-1.4 inch values stretching from near Destin to Albany. Weak to locally moderate convective instability is expected this afternoon. A cap of warm and dry mid-level air will get partially eroded by a weak upper disturbance passing southeast through Georgia late today, and deep-layer bulk shear will reach to near 20 knots as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Lastly, we will have low-level focus spreading inland with the Panhandle seabreeze, and with a back door cold front that will spread southwest across Georgia starting this afternoon. So a lot of marginal factors will get a boost from the upper dynamics and low- level focus. Individual storms will not be especially strong or prolonged, but any thunderstorm is capable of gusty winds and lightning. In advance of the back door cold front, it will be hot. Highs will rise well above 90F over inland portions of the FL Big Bend region. Remember those routine summer hot weather tips, such as staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, and planning outdoor work during the cooler morning and evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwesterly upper level flow lightens and becomes northerly as it gives way to an upper level ridge building in from the west late Monday into Tuesday. As this ridge builds, the longwave pattern becomes more amplified across the eastern third of the country and surface high pressure will fill in from the northeast as a backdoor frontal boundary moves in. When combined with diurnal heating and low-level moisture, we should see scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary. The best probabilities are across our south-central GA counties and FL Big Bend counties. Additional coverage is likely along seabreeze boundaries, especially the Apalachee Bay seabreeze in the southeast FL Big Bend. Additional coverage is possible on Tuesday, but as the background front becomes more ill defined and the upper level ridge axis moves overhead, expect lesser coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures will continue to remain well above normal, and in the upper 80s and around 90, but with the backdoor front moving in some areas across GA will at least see temperatures a little closer to normal in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Upper level ridge breaks down through the week as our next system approaches the southeast US while surface high pressure moves east into the western Atlantic at the start of the period. The axis of the surface high will be elongated westward so expect flow to become east and southeasterly through the long term and then southerly by Friday and the upcoming weekend as the pattern becomes a little more active. Increasing rain chances can be expected by Friday and potentially into the weekend depending on how the upper level pattern evolves. None of these next few systems appears to bring significant rainfall, but at this point we`ll welcome anything we can get given drought conditions encroaching on the region. High temperatures will remain above normal and in the upper 80s. Some 90 degree days are possible until rain chances increase with the passing of the late-week system. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through sunrise, low cloud and perhaps some fog development is expected along and southwest of a DHN-TLH line, including ECP. Fog and low clouds will be shallow, and therefore quick to lift and scatter out starting 1-2 hours after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected for most of this afternoon. Then late this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, aided by the seabreeze front from the Gulf coast, and a back door cold front spreading southwest through Georgia. Have included lower confidence mentions of thunder until a couple hours after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A bubble of high pressure will reside over the far northeast Gulf through Monday afternoon, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze the main driver of wind. Fog is possible each morning over the protected waters of the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Stronger high pressure will move down the eastern seaboard into the western Atlantic toward Bermuda from Monday night through Wednesday, bringing a turn to easterly flow. Nocturnal increasing in easterly winds can be expected in this pattern, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights. Seas will remain around 1 to 3 feet through the next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Late afternoon and evening air mass thunderstorms will be the main concern today and again on Monday. Individual storms will be short- lived and not especially strong, but storms will nonetheless come with gusty winds and lightning. The two focus areas will be over the inland Panhandle because of the seabreeze, and over the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley, thanks to a back door cold front slipping in from the northeast. Areas of locally dense fog are expected over Panhandle and southeast Alabama districts early this morning, then again early Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Rain chances increase on Monday and later in the upcoming week, but at this time amounts will generally be under an inch and no significant riverine or hydrological concerns are expected. This rainfall will also likely not be enough to diminish the D0 - abnormally dry - conditions in place per the latest drought monitor. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 66 89 66 / 20 10 40 10 Panama City 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 90 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 10 Albany 90 66 85 65 / 30 40 40 10 Valdosta 93 67 87 66 / 30 40 60 10 Cross City 92 63 90 64 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228297 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1024 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area this morning. High pressure will prevail through much of this week. Another cold front could approach the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM, KCLX and satellite indicated that the backdoor cold front was located generally along a line from Sylvania, GA to Edisto Island, SC, sliding to the south. Based on current radar trends, the cold front should push south of the Savannah River by early this afternoon. Based on the temperature trends north of the front and latest guidance, high temperatures across portions of the Lowcountry will be decreased by a degree or two. Otherwise, the current forecast appears on track. Today: The front will become increasingly more shallow the farther south it propagates and despite the northeast wind shift meandering into far southern Georgia later this morning and into the afternoon, the tightest moisture, instability and thermal gradients are forecast to remain across Southeast Georgia, most likely near the I-16 corridor. South of these gradients, there will be a risk for isolated to scattered showers/tstms as instability builds and convergence increases ahead of the sea breeze. In fact, convection could pop by early afternoon along the immediate Georgia coast with additional activity forming farther inland as the afternoon progresses. Pops range from near 0-5% north of the Savannah River to 20-30% south of I-16, highest over parts of Tattnal, Long, Liberty and McIntosh Counties. North of primary temperature/moisture gradients, a somewhat cooler and drier airmass will prevail with weak cold air advection noted. It will still remain warm, but it will feel a bit drier compared to the past several days. Highs will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s across Southeast South Carolina, mid-upper 80s across Southeast Georgia with a few spots likely topping out near 90. Cooler temperatures will persist at the beaches and near the immediate coast where breezy to windy conditions will be common in the pinched gradient that develops behind the front. Gusts could be as high as 30 mph at times at the beaches. The modified RAP sounding at KLHW shows weak to moderate instability (for late April) developing by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE running about 1500 J/kg and lifted indices running as low as -4C. There is about 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that develops during day, but with only weak-moderate instability expected, tstms will likely remain disorganized. DCAPE values do surge to a respectable 1000 J/kg with a considerable amount of mid-level dry air noted, but again, the marginal instability suggests the damaging wind potential is limited with the strongest storms likely producing winds no higher than 50 mph. Small hail could also occur within locally stronger updrafts. Tonight: A few showers could continue to percolate near the Altamaha River overnight as the remnants of the cold front meander nearby and interact with a piece of weak shortwave energy that is expected to pass through after midnight. Pops near 20% were maintained for much of the tonight period to account for this. Low clouds and possibly a little fog could also occur for counties nearest to the Altamaha River. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy outside of this area. Lows will range from the mid-upper 50s inland and north of I-16, upper 50s/lower 60s inland and south of I-16, lower-mid 60s across the coastal counties with upper 60s at the beaches. It will also remain a bit gusty at the beaches through the night, although winds will tend to lower through the early morning hours Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north on Monday as upper level ridging occurs. The leading edge of the front will be across far south GA. There could be just enough moisture and forcing along the Altamaha River to support isolated showers or tstms. Otherwise, relatively dry air will be spreading in from the north and temps will be near normal. A strong upper ridge will build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday while Atlantic high pressure strengthens. Dry and warm weather will ensue with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s inland on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Thursday as a relatively progressive pattern develops late week. A cold front could sag into the area on Friday, bringing an increase in rain chances. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 27/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: A cold front will be clearing the terminals at the beginning of the 12z TAF period. VFR will prevail through the period. KSAV: The cold front will reach the terminal by 13-14z. VFR will prevail for much of the 12z TAF period. There is a risk that some MVFR cigs could spread in from the south later this evening and overnight as a disturbance passes through aloft. Guidance is mixed whether cigs will drop to MVFR with the best chances for IFR and MVFR cigs occurring from roughly KRVJ-KLHW and points south to the Altamaha River. Low VFR cigs were highlighted with a scattered deck around 2500 ft for now. A few showers could develop near KSAV as the sea breeze gets a bit active early this afternoon, but the best coverage should remain to the south and southwest. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today: A cold front will drop south through the waters this morning resulting in a steady northeast. The gradient is expected to tighten in the wake of the front as high pressure noses south. This will result in northeast winds around 20 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt becoming common. Models typically under forecast speeds in the pinched gradient northeast flow regimes, and the forecast has been modified to reflect this. Seas will build 3-5 ft by this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for all waters except the Charleston Harbor. For the Charleston Harbor, winds look to remain just shy of advisory levels, peaking 15-20 kt with waves 1-2 ft. Tonight: Winds will slowly weaken through the night as the gradient begins to relax. Winds could fall below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by midnight, although gusts could remain close to 25 kt through the night across both Georgia marine legs. Seas will hold 3-5 ft. Monday through Friday: A decent ENE gradient will persist into Monday as strong high pressure continues to build from the north. Winds are expected to remain just below advisory criteria, with diminishing speeds through the day. For the remainder of the forecast period, conditions will stay well below headline criteria. Rip Currents: A continued 2 ft, 9-10 second swell will persist today. Breezy to windy conditions will occur over the beaches as a pinched gradient develops with the passage of a cold front. These conditions will push the rip current risk into the high category for all beaches. Rip currents were reported at both Hilton Head and Tybee Island Saturday. Both the number and strength of the rip currents will likely increase today. A moderate risk is in place for all beaches Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Positive tidal departures are expected to build today as northeast winds increase in the wake of a passing cold front. Tide levels are expected to peak around 7.5 ft MLLW (moderate) in the Charleston Harbor and 9.7 ft MLLW (minor) at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties as confidence in reaching advisory thresholds is the highest this far out. The advisory may need to be expanded to include the remainder of the lower South Carolina and the middle-upper Georgia coast later today pending further refinements to the local Total Water Forecasts. The risk for at least minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides will persist into Tuesday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ354-374. && $$ |
| #1228296 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:06 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 959 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today - Warmer today with near record highs for some interior locations; isolated showers late in the day west of the Orlando metro. There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida this afternoon and early evening - Sensitive fire weather conditions continue today and into this week - Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) over the interior with occasional lightning strikes && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies. A weak "cool" front is situated over the western Atlantic and the southeastern US to the north of east central Florida which extends from low pressure (~1001mb) near the Maine coast. Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 70s with dew points in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally light from the south-southwest at 4-8mph. Mostly dry weather is expected today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop over portions of Lake, northern Volusia, western Seminole, and western Orange county into the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 4PM-9PM) as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Winds are expected to back onshore into the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze at around 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Seasonable to above normal high temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and the mid 80s to mid 90s are forecast over the interior to the west of I-95 under. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to approach near records at the Orlando Sanford International Airport (record high of 95 in 2017) and the Leesburg International Airport (record high of 93 in 2017). There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida. This level of heat effects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today...Weak high pressure ridge will remain draped across central FL, just shifted a bit south. This will result in a slightly delayed sea breeze, esp north of the Cape, so max temps will reach the mid 80s coast (even upper 80s Volusia coast) before the sea breeze knocks those temps down a bit this aftn. Max temps over the interior will reach the lower 90s, even a few mid 90s possible. Leesburg will have the best chance to equal/exceed its record high of 93F. A weakening/decaying frontal boundary across the deep South extending offshore GA will temporarily lose momentum and stall. While most areas will remain dry today, a slight increase in moisture across northern sections (PWATs ~1.25") should be sufficient to generate isolated showers as the seas breeze interacts with larger lake breezes (Lake George) and eventually a collision with the west coast sea breeze over Lake county/Villages late in the day. A small (1 FT) but very long period (13-14 sec) background ENE swell is impacting the surf zone. After collaborating with WFOs JAX and MIA, we have raised a High risk of rip currents at the beaches. On Mon, the decaying front and its assocd moisture will be shunted SW across the area as reinforcing high pressure pushes SE off the Carolina coast. With PWATs increasing ~1.5", isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast. This represents the best chance for rain in some time for parts of the area but most coastal locations esp south of the Cape will not see any rain. The best chance for showers and storms will be over the interior sections in the afternoon sparked by sea breeze interactions. There, a few of these storms Mon aftn/eve could be strong containing gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any lightning strikes will bring the risk of sparking brush fires. Tue-Sat...Breezy onshore flow coupled with sufficient low level moisture will support isolated onshore-moving showers from the Atlc early Tue. Drier air is forecast to advect from the east Wed-Thu as the ridge axis settles south into central FL so will maintain a dry forecast with PoPs 10% or less. The breezy onshore flow Tue will hold max temps to the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. But warming up mid week, reaching the lower 90s interior and mid 80s coast by Thu. Ridge axis slips south of the area by Fri which will promote a more S/SW flow, delaying the sea breeze and producing warmer max temps at the coast. Fri daytime looks mostly dry but a sea breeze collision on the east side of the peninsula late in the day may harness enough meager low level moisture and and instability aloft to generate isolated storms into Fri eve. A slightly better chance (~30%) for sea breeze storms exists on Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A weak Atlantic ridge axis will remain over the area today with light winds enhanced by the sea breeze near the coast in the afternoon. Reinforcing high pressure will push southeast and off the mid Atlantic coast Monday. Remnants of a decaying frontal boundary and its associated moisture will push southwest across the area, generating isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms Monday and Monday night. Breezy east winds around 15 knots Mon night and Tue will build seas 4 to 6 FT and produce poor boating conditions. A Caution headline looks likely for the offshore waters. Then high pressure ridge axis settles southward toward central FL and the adjacent Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday resulting in decreasing winds and subsiding seas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Some haze and patchy MIFG this morning, but overall VFR conditions. Rain chances return to the forecast today, with VCSH possible across the interior terminals after 21Z. Confidence in showers does remain low, but kept it in for now. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming east-southeast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, with winds increasing to around 10 knots. Conditions become light once again overnight, with winds becoming southeasterly. No VIS or CIG concerns tonight at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Very warm and dry conditions are forecast today with continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower to near 35% across the interior this afternoon while holding above 40 percent along the coast where dewpoints and humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday as moisture and onshore winds increase before reducing back to 35-40% over the interior on Wednesday. Light winds today will be enhanced by an East sea breeze with speeds 10-15 mph. Maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior today with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally Good dispersion values are forecast today with Generally Good to Very Good Dispersions on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (~20-30% chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the potential to spark brush fires given the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 67 82 67 / 10 20 30 10 MCO 92 67 88 68 / 10 10 40 20 MLB 84 68 83 69 / 10 0 20 20 VRB 85 64 84 69 / 10 0 20 20 LEE 92 69 89 67 / 20 20 50 20 SFB 92 68 88 66 / 10 10 40 10 ORL 92 69 88 68 / 10 10 40 10 FPR 85 64 84 68 / 10 0 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228295 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 950 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A light west to southwest flow over the area as a backdoor cold front moves southward from GA and SC. Skies are mostly clear except for thin high clouds. Satellite imagery shows the front by a line of clouds stretching west-east along and off the South Carolina coast. Have made little change to the ongoing forecast. With plenty of sun we should be able to reach around 90 / to the lower 90s inland (a few mid 90s possible from Okefenokee Swamp southward) before any precip can begin. The precip chances again remain highest for southeast GA upwards of 30-50 percent, where the combination of the incoming front, east coast sea breeze, and diurnal instability leads to shower and storm formation. Further south into northeast FL, the precip chances are quite a bit lower in general, as the east coast sea breeze is able to push inland during the aftn and help to general some isolated weak convection, between about I-75 and I-95. There is likely to be a little higher chance this evening for southeast GA and also for northeast FL compared to the aftn, and certainly convection will linger into tonight, as the front and mid/upper level shortwave troughing interact to continue the chance of rain. The orientation of the higher POPs are aligned roughly northwest to southeast along the front, which will be from far southeast GA to the northeast FL coastal waters. No huge signals for significant storm strength as CAPE and shear values are on the low end range for that, but heavy downpours are very possible for parts of southeast GA from late afternoon through tonight. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today: Models still on track to bring back door frontal boundary from the North into the region this afternoon and the first shot at scattered rainfall chances in the last 2 weeks to the local area. Prior to the arrival of the frontal boundary late this afternoon expect much above normal temps under mostly sunny skies to reach near record levels in the 90-95F range across inland NE FL and around 90F across SE GA, while highs reach into the mid/upper 80s at the Atlantic Beaches due to a delayed onset of the East Coast sea breeze. Overall rainfall chances will be in the 30-50% range across SE GA and 15-25% range across NE FL as the East Coast sea breeze will push inland and interact with the southward moving back door frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening with the main deterrent to convection the lingering dry airmass aloft across the region. A few strong storms will be possible during the frontal/sea breeze interaction with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours in some locations, mainly across SE GA through sunset. Breezy East to Northeast winds will increase to 15-20G25 mph along Atlantic Coastal areas behind the frontal boundary through the afternoon and evening hours, with strongest winds along the SE GA coastal areas. Tonight: The frontal boundary will settle close to the FL/GA border or I-10 corridor by the overnight hours as high pressure builds north of the region over the Carolinas. The continued convergence along this boundary from the increased and breezy E-NE winds at times will continue scattered showers and isolated storms at times near this boundary, with best chances across the Atlantic Waters, but still potential over the land based areas through the overnight hours. Mild temps will continue with low temps only falling into the 60s area-wide and near 70F along the Atlantic Coast. A few strong storms will continue to possible over the land based areas through the evening hours, but will continue through the night closer to the Atlantic Coast where the best low level convergence exists and depending on how slow the boundary movement becomes, there will be some potential for some very localized heavier rainfall amounts if some showers/storms can train across the same areas near the Atlantic Coast and along the I-95 corridor. Overall most of the rainfall will be very welcome to many locations that have not seen measurable rain in over 2 weeks. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Stalled frontal boundary draped across SE GA on Monday will gradually shift southward and dissipate by Tuesday as high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast continuing breezy ENE flow. Higher moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.8 in.) and a passing shortwave aloft will help support isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes and the weakening frontal boundary area-wide. Breezy easterly winds will shift the Atlantic sea breeze well inland with the sea breeze merger likely along and west of the I-75 corridor. This will be the best chance for storms and where coverage could become numerous. Pockets of 0.25-0.5" of rain will be possible in stronger storms mainly along and west of I-75. On Tuesday, some lingering moisture will support a few showers developing along the sea breezes as they shift inland Tuesday afternoon. In the easterly flow, high temperatures will have an east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging from upper 70s along the coast to the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The region remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure off the southeastern seaboard. This will bring a return of warmer, drier weather to the region for mid-week. High pressure retreats as a cold front enters the SE US Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall returns to SE GA as moisture increases ahead of the approaching front. The front will be along the FL/GA state border Saturday morning and continue its trek southward into central FL Saturday night. Diurnal instability, sea breeze interactions, and left over convergence north of the front will result in isolated to scatter showers/storms on Saturday. Temperatures return to above seasonable for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Some light patchy fog near VQQ around 12z this morning but sites are VFR at this time with think high clouds streaming overhead. Otherwise, the cold backdoor front will move into the area later today and into tonight while slowing. The front is expected to be accompanied by a wind shift to the east northeast as it passes and eventually bring additional moisture and a chance for showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight. GNV should largely be dry today. Restrictions in cigs will begin later today and started some MVFR for SSI later this aftn and through tonight. For JAX, CRG, and VQQ, started some MVFR cigs toward midnight or just after midnight. There is some suggestion of IFR cigs by this evening for JAX and CRG northward to SSI, and we can`t rule out some IFR at times, but given some model disagreement will hold off for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Short range models in good agreement for back door frontal boundary to push southward into the local waters this afternoon and stall near the FL/GA border tonight. This will send a surge of East to Northeast winds into the local waters, likely at SCEC levels in the 15-20 knot range across SE GA waters, and around 15 knots for the NE FL waters. This will also be accompanied by increasing chances of shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. High pressure will build into the Carolinas on Monday and push the weakening frontal boundary south of the local waters with continued East winds likely at SCEC (15-20 knot) levels along with continued threat of scattered showers and storms. High pressure ridge axis settles over the local waters from Tuesday through Thursday with a return to a general Southeast flow at 10-15 knots. South to Southwest flow will develop on Friday ahead of approaching frontal boundary, which is expected to push through the local waters by early Saturday, but this frontal boundary is expected to be on the weaker side, so headlines are not expected at this time. Rip Currents: Slight increase in swells this morning along with expected increase in Northeast to East winds with frontal passage today will nudge Rip Current Risk to high today and Monday as surf/breakers will continue in the 2-4 ft range, along with elevated crowd levels at the NE FL/SE GA beaches today due to the above normal temps into the mid/upper 80s. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today will be the last hot day with inland min RHs in the 30s. A cold front will drop down into southeast Georgia by this afternoon and stall over the area until Monday. Winds shift to north- northwesterly today and then breezy northeasterly winds develop as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland this afternoon into evening. Low- level moisture gradually increases helping to support an isolated shower along the sea breezes and widely scattered showers/storms along the front in southeast Georgia. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases on Monday. Best chance will be along and west of the I-75 corridor where the sea breezes likely merge. Good inland dispersions and fair coastal dispersions prevail today and Monday. Good dispersions prevail area-wide on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SUN 4/27 JAX 94 (1986) GNV 96 (2011) AMG96 (1986) CRG93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 63 81 61 / 60 40 30 10 SSI 82 69 77 69 / 20 50 30 10 JAX 91 67 80 64 / 20 30 30 10 SGJ 88 69 80 67 / 10 30 30 10 GNV 94 66 87 64 / 20 20 60 20 OCF 94 65 89 65 / 20 10 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228294 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 915 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Behind a cold front, cooler high pressure builds in today through tomorrow. By Tuesday, high pressure shifts offshore and will remain anchored there into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 915 AM Sun...Cooler and drier high pressure will continue to build in today. Current readings are generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s, and strong CAA through the day will limit warming despite mostly sunny skies, and afternoon highs will only reach the upper 60s to low 70s (highest across the southern NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 7 AM Sun...High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. The pressure gradient will relax some (especially early), and winds will become very light overnight if not decoupling entirely. As a result, great radiational cooling conditions are likely to develop, which will allow for temps to cool into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Monday into the weekend...Upper level ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and remain in place across the Southeast into the end of the workweek with a weak upper trough passing by well to the north around midweek. At the surface, high pressure ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and gradually push offshore by Tue morning with this ridge remaining centered offshore into the end of the week as well. As a result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with onshore flow on Monday becoming SW`rly by Tuesday allowing for a WAA regime to set up across Carolinas. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, with lows in the 50s. By Tuesday low level thicknesses increase under the WAA regime supporting highs in the 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX and coast. As we get into Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated surface cold front stalling in Virginia with previously mentioned surface high settling in across the Sargasso Sea. This will keep the area under a WAA regime increasing temps even further into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX. The stalled front to the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening, though latest trends in forecast and ensemble guidance has shown a noticeable drying trend. So while we currently have PoP`s in the forecast won`t be surprised if we end up precip free on Wed. Beyond mid week, upper ridging finally pushes offshore with the approach of an upper trough coming in from the north and west. At the surface this will spawn a surface low in the Plains which will track NE`wards with its associated cold front pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Fri and Sat bringing our next potential threat for some unsettled weather. Currently have high end Chc PoP`s in place Fri afternoon and wont be surprised given current trends if we see likely PoPs across the area within the next few days. Some of the AI and ML severe products are hinting at some potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop with this front as well so will have to monitor this potential as we get closer to the weekend. Temps remain slightly above avg into the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 7 AM Sun...Some lingering low level stratus will cause some spotty MVFR ceilings for the next hour or so. Thereafter, cooler and drier air will move into the airspace with VFR conditions prevailing through early tomorrow morning. Gusty northerly winds to 15-25 mph are expected today, but otherwise skies will be mostly clear with only some high based cirrus around. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging builds overhead and gradually pushes offshore through midweek bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 915 AM Sun...Small Craft conditions will continue into this afternoon in the wake of a cold front, with strong northerly flow slowly diminishing this afternoon. Current winds 20-30 kt will subside this afternoon to become N/NNW at 10-15 kts this afternoon. Northerly winds continue tonight at 10-15 kts. Seas 4-7 ft will subside to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon and continue tonight. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure will remain in control for the most part through the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions into about midweek or so. 10-15 kt NE`rly winds will be noted across our waters Monday morning with seas persisting at 3-5 ft along our coastal waters. Winds will ease down to 5-10 kts by Tue as high pressure builds overhead and pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to an E then SE then S`rly direction. Seas along our coastal waters will also lower down to 2-4 ft. On Wed with the approach of a cold front, winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts coming from the SW with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW`rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 137-230. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ135-156-158- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154. && $$ |
| #1228293 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 634 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 We are into a warm and fair weather pattern, but the middle of the week looks to see us shift back into a more active weather pattern when another front slogs into the region. Some of the top things to remember about the forecast into the new week: - Like many late spring fronts, this boundary will struggle to push much into our area, if at all. But where it does, there will be ample moisture available for locally heavy rains. A marginal risk of excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) is in place in the northern portions of the area on Wednesday, roughly north of a Brenham to Livingston line. - Temperatures today look to be very similar to yesterday, with inland locations reaching up into the upper 80s again. Warm conditions will persist into the work week, but some increased cloudiness should knock a couple degrees off of afternoon highs. - At area beaches, persistent onshore flow will gradually result in higher water levels at high tide, and increased threats of rip currents. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure and ridging is the name of the game over the northwestern Gulf this weekend. Surface analysis shows high pressure over the Louisiana coast, giving us persistent light to moderate onshore winds. This holds through the lower levels, but from 700 mb up, the ridge axis drifts back to the west over the western Gulf coast. This is a recipe for a warm, humid stretch with fair weather and that`s exactly what the forecast calls for. From a start in the upper 60s and around 70 degrees, we should get right back into the upper half of the 80s for all but the Gulf coast, which will get held back in the lower 80s by the moderating Gulf waters. While tonight looks like it will go very similar to this early morning, we may not reach quite as high in the afternoon, perhaps only into the middle to upper 80s, knocking just a few degrees off of today. The reasoning behind this is that the ridging setup looks to make its way a little more to the east as an upper trough digs into the Desert Southwest. We may even see a little bit of midlevel vorticity roll through. Ultimately, the result should be a little more afternoon cloudiness. Not a big difference, but enough to shave a bit of heat off the top. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Persistent southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to warm and humid weather for the majority of next week. High temperatures Tuesday through Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area with max heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Increased rain chances on Thursday may lead to localized cooler than forecasted high temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s for most of next week with perhaps a slight cool down heading into next weekend with lows in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level low will be moving into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Some isolated showers or storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon in SE Texas just thanks to increased moisture and PVA ahead of the trough. However, rain chances increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the associated weak cold front moves into the region. Some uncertainty on the timing (could be as early as midnight Wednesday night or as late as noon Thursday) and how far the cold front makes it into the region before stalling/retreating back north (could make it to I-10 or off the coast). Some cooler/drier air will likely filter into the region on Thursday behind the boundary, but onshore flow quickly returns bringing back warm, humid conditions. Passing weak disturbances aloft may trigger additional showers and storms Friday and Saturday, but coverage is looking limited at this time. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 CIG/VSBYs bouncing around early this morning, all the way from 1/2SM/003 to 10SM/SKC, making toplines difficult - plenty of TEMPOs for the next few hours. Particularly true for IAH, HOU, and SGR on the edge of a ragged stratus deck. After a few hours, should get on a solid track to VFR area-wide, with SE winds increasing to around 10KT, with gusts to around 20KT for several spots. Do it all over again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of next week with gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning or afternoon. The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly needed by Tuesday or Wednesday. Abnormally high astronomical tides and the increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 88 69 87 70 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 87 70 85 71 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 0 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228292 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 740 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 740 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will continue to dominate today, with very warm and dry weather for most of the day. Late this afternoon and evening some moisture will begin to move in from the north as the frontal boundary gets closer and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes could lead to a few showers over the interior north of Interstate 4. Further south there actually could be just enough moisture to see a stray light shower/sprinkle over inland areas this evening, but overall coverage will remain less than 10 percent. Have made some minor adjustments to include the slight chance of showers this evening, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light southeast winds early this morning will shift to westerly and increase to around 10 knots this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Winds will diminish and become light east to southeast later this evening and overnight. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure aloft remains centered well west of the region this morning with the surface ridge axis extending across the southern part of the peninsula. This will keep warm and dry conditions across the region again today, with highs in the lower to mid 90s (mid to upper 80s at the coast). Similar to the past few days, a few of these highs will near records, especially for locations away from the coast. For Monday into Tuesday, a frontal boundary will move toward the region and eventually dissipate across northern Florida. Higher moisture associated with this boundary will move over the region Monday afternoon and Monday night, and this will help bring us some showers and a few thunderstorms. The best rain chances will be for the northern half of the forecast area and generally away from the immediate coast as the sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Rainfall amounts do not look overly exciting, however, and the high-end rainfall forecast is only up to about 0.5 inches, meaning there is a 90% chance that we see less than that. Rain chances linger Tuesday afternoon with the sea breeze, but moisture definitely decreases from Monday, so overall chances and amounts are lower. High pressure builds back in for the rest of the week, with warm and dry conditions returning. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain over the region today, with east to southeast winds becoming onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon. For Monday into Tuesday, an approaching frontal boundary will bring some showers and a few thunderstorms, then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week. No headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure remains over the region today, with dry and warm conditions continuing. Relative humidity values will drop to the lower 30s for portions of the interior, though winds will remain below Red Flag criteria. Moisture will increase Monday and Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches the region and brings showers and a few thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 72 92 72 / 0 0 30 20 FMY 91 67 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 94 67 92 69 / 10 10 40 20 SRQ 88 69 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 94 62 93 65 / 0 10 40 20 SPG 88 72 88 72 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1228291 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 646 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Message: - Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues through Monday A mid-level ridge continues to build over South Texas today, causing morning clouds to give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Late tonight into Monday morning, a mid-level shortwave ahead of a closed low over Utah will move from eastern Mexico into South-Central Texas. This shortwave interacting with an above normal moisture axis along the Rio Grande has a low chance (20%) of advecting showers that form over eastern Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country of South Texas Monday morning. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected through Monday afternoon with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts as apparent temperatures extend into the 90s, approaching 100. Breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph are expected this afternoon and Monday afternoon (slightly stronger) due to a tightening pressure gradient from a surface low progressing east of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Our main hazard remains the increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to a moderate risk of rip currents through Monday. Although swell periods may drop to 5-6 seconds, onshore winds will be stronger. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low to medium (15-40%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week. - Above normal temperatures continue through the upcoming week. - Cold front with showers and thunderstorms Friday? Tuesday`s forecast looks dry but moisture is progged to increase through the day with increasing rain chances by Tuesday night across the western portions of S TX. This is in response to an approaching long wave trough with embedded short waves tracking east across the area. The trough is progged to track across S TX on Wednesday leading to a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances across the northern CWA. Models indicate an MCS tracking across Central TX with the tail end moving across S TX through the day Wednesday. There remains uncertainty as to how far south this line of storms will develop. If the upper disturbance is slightly farther north, then S TX may not see any rainfall. If it is farther South, then rain chances will increase. A short wave Thursday will bring a low 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will be limited, and the cap will be stronger on Thursday resulting in the lower rain chances. Rain chances are forecast to increase to 30-40% by Friday with a frontal boundary approaching S TX. The front is expected to be weakening as it moves toward S TX and may stall just north or across S TX during the day Friday. The frontal boundary will provide low level moisture convergence for convection to focus along, and PWATs are progged to increase to around 1.6-1.7 inches. There remains uncertainty due to differences in timing and where the front ultimately stalls, if it even makes it to S TX. If it does make it into S TX, temperatures will only be 2-4 degrees cooler. Low (10-20%) rain chances continue into the weekend with additional embedded short waves tracking across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 MVFR ceilings with breaks to VFR cover South Texas early this morning. Slight vsby reductions over ALI/VCT will clear within the next couple hours. VFR conditions will prevail late this morning through the afternoon as southeasterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots sustained with gusts around 25 knots. Overall, winds will be stronger tonight than early this morning, leading to a predominately MVFR ceiling event and a very low chance of any fog formation. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze today will slightly strengthen to a dominantly fresh (BF 5) breeze Monday with seas 3 to 4 feet. A fresh (BF 5) onshore breeze can be expected Tuesday with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions by Tuesday night. Onshore winds decrease to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) on Wednesday, then moderate (BF 4) by Thursday. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday increasing to a 30% on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Winds and humidity levels are expected to stay below critical thresholds through the week. However, elevated fire weather conditions will be approached over western Webb County Monday afternoon as relative humidity drops to around 30 percent with 20 ft winds around 20 mph. Additional brief elevated fire thresholds may be approached across portions of the Rio Grande Plains as minimum afternoon relative humidity values drop below 30% and Energy Release Component (ERC) values trend above 70% across Southern Webb County. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 87 71 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 96 72 97 72 / 0 20 20 10 Alice 91 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 74 84 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 96 71 97 72 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 88 72 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 74 81 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228290 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft. This will produce very warm and dry weather across the region through Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. High temperatures today and Monday will range from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s along and west of the I-69E corridor. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s with increasing clouds. A modest to slightly enhanced pressure gradient will support breezy southeast winds, especially near the coast, today and Monday. Elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Dry weather will dominate the first half of the long term forecast period, as the center of 500 mb high pressure nearly directly over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually eases towards the east. A pattern shift will then occur later in the week, with a series of mid-level shortwaves riding within a west-southwest to east-northeast flow. This will produce a risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily beginning on Thursday. Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are also anticipated, aided by a breezy to windy onshore flow. In fact, winds may be strong enough on Tuesday to warrant a Wind Advisory for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley at that time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies with a few passing low clouds. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through early this evening. Light southeast winds early this morning will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease to 10 to 15 knots later this evening. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings are expected to develop later this evening, generally after 02Z Monday. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 10 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas slightly under 3.9 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with a modest pressure gradient in place. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Laguna Madre today and Monday and on the nearshore Waters on Monday due to slightly stronger winds. A brief Small Craft Advisory cannot be entirely ruled out on the Laguna Madre each afternoon, if winds become more breezier than forecast. (Monday Night through Saturday) An enhanced pressure gradient will produce Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions along the Lower Texas Coast from Monday night through Friday. The approach of a weak cold front from the north will weaken the gradient for Saturday, allowing for lighter winds and lower seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 74 87 75 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 74 80 75 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228289 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 729 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today - Warmer today with near record highs for some interior locations; isolated showers late in the day north/west of Orlando. - Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) interior with risk of lightning strikes && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today...Weak high pressure ridge will remain draped across central FL, just shifted a bit south. This will result in a slightly delayed sea breeze, esp north of the Cape, so max temps will reach the mid 80s coast (even upper 80s Volusia coast) before the sea breeze knocks those temps down a bit this aftn. Max temps over the interior will reach the lower 90s, even a few mid 90s possible. Leesburg will have the best chance to equal/exceed its record high of 93F. A weakening/decaying frontal boundary across the deep South extending offshore GA will temporarily lose momentum and stall. While most areas will remain dry today, a slight increase in moisture across northern sections (PWATs ~1.25") should be sufficient to generate isolated showers as the seas breeze interacts with larger lake breezes (Lake George) and eventually a collision with the west coast sea breeze over Lake county/Villages late in the day. A small (1 FT) but very long period (13-14 sec) background ENE swell is impacting the surf zone. After collaborating with WFOs JAX and MIA, we have raised a High risk of rip currents at the beaches. On Mon, the decaying front and its assocd moisture will be shunted SW across the area as reinforcing high pressure pushes SE off the Carolina coast. With PWATs increasing ~1.5", isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast. This represents the best chance for rain in some time for parts of the area but most coastal locations esp south of the Cape will not see any rain. The best chance for showers and storms will be over the interior sections in the afternoon sparked by sea breeze interactions. There, a few of these storms Mon aftn/eve could be strong containing gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any lightning strikes will bring the risk of sparking brush fires. Tue-Sat...Breezy onshore flow coupled with sufficient low level moisture will support isolated onshore-moving showers from the Atlc early Tue. Drier air is forecast to advect from the east Wed-Thu as the ridge axis settles south into central FL so will maintain a dry forecast with PoPs 10% or less. The breezy onshore flow Tue will hold max temps to the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. But warming up mid week, reaching the lower 90s interior and mid 80s coast by Thu. Ridge axis slips south of the area by Fri which will promote a more S/SW flow, delaying the sea breeze and producing warmer max temps at the coast. Fri daytime looks mostly dry but a sea breeze collision on the east side of the peninsula late in the day may harness enough meager low level moisture and and instability aloft to generate isolated storms into Fri eve. A slightly better chance (~30%) for sea breeze storms exists on Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A weak Atlantic ridge axis will remain over the area today with light winds enhanced by the sea breeze near the coast in the afternoon. Reinforcing high pressure will push southeast and off the mid Atlantic coast Monday. Remnants of a decaying frontal boundary and its associated moisture will push southwest across the area, generating isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms Monday and Monday night. Breezy east winds around 15 knots Mon night and Tue will build seas 4 to 6 FT and produce poor boating conditions. A Caution headline looks likely for the offshore waters. Then high pressure ridge axis settles southward toward central FL and the adjacent Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday resulting in decreasing winds and subsiding seas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Some haze and patchy MIFG this morning, but overall VFR conditions. Rain chances return to the forecast today, with VCSH possible across the interior terminals after 21Z. Confidence in showers does remain low, but kept it in for now. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming east-southeast as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, with winds increasing to around 10 knots. Conditions become light once again overnight, with winds becoming southeasterly. No VIS or CIG concerns tonight at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Very warm and dry conditions are forecast today with continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower to near 35% across the interior this afternoon while holding above 40 percent along the coast where dewpoints and humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday as moisture and onshore winds increase before reducing back to 35-40% over the interior on Wednesday. Light winds today will be enhanced by an East sea breeze with speeds 10-15 mph. Maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior today with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally Good dispersion values are forecast today with Generally Good to Very Good Dispersions on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (~20-30% chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the potential to spark brush fires given the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 67 82 67 / 10 20 30 10 MCO 93 67 88 68 / 10 10 40 20 MLB 85 68 83 69 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 85 67 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 LEE 93 68 89 67 / 20 20 50 20 SFB 93 68 88 66 / 10 10 40 10 ORL 93 68 88 68 / 10 10 40 10 FPR 85 66 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228288 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 725 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Today: Models still on track to bring back door frontal boundary from the North into the region this afternoon and the first shot at scattered rainfall chances in the last 2 weeks to the local area. Prior to the arrival of the frontal boundary late this afternoon expect much above normal temps under mostly sunny skies to reach near record levels in the 90-95F range across inland NE FL and around 90F across SE GA, while highs reach into the mid/upper 80s at the Atlantic Beaches due to a delayed onset of the East Coast sea breeze. Overall rainfall chances will be in the 30-50% range across SE GA and 15-25% range across NE FL as the East Coast sea breeze will push inland and interact with the southward moving back door frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening with the main deterrent to convection the lingering dry airmass aloft across the region. A few strong storms will be possible during the frontal/sea breeze interaction with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours in some locations, mainly across SE GA through sunset. Breezy East to Northeast winds will increase to 15-20G25 mph along Atlantic Coastal areas behind the frontal boundary through the afternoon and evening hours, with strongest winds along the SE GA coastal areas. Tonight: The frontal boundary will settle close to the FL/GA border or I-10 corridor by the overnight hours as high pressure builds north of the region over the Carolinas. The continued convergence along this boundary from the increased and breezy E-NE winds at times will continue scattered showers and isolated storms at times near this boundary, with best chances across the Atlantic Waters, but still potential over the land based areas through the overnight hours. Mild temps will continue with low temps only falling into the 60s area-wide and near 70F along the Atlantic Coast. A few strong storms will continue to possible over the land based areas through the evening hours, but will continue through the night closer to the Atlantic Coast where the best low level convergence exists and depending on how slow the boundary movement becomes, there will be some potential for some very localized heavier rainfall amounts if some showers/storms can train across the same areas near the Atlantic Coast and along the I-95 corridor. Overall most of the rainfall will be very welcome to many locations that have not seen measurable rain in over 2 weeks. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Stalled frontal boundary draped across SE GA on Monday will gradually shift southward and dissipate by Tuesday as high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast continuing breezy ENE flow. Higher moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.8 in.) and a passing shortwave aloft will help support isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes and the weakening frontal boundary area-wide. Breezy easterly winds will shift the Atlantic sea breeze well inland with the sea breeze merger likely along and west of the I-75 corridor. This will be the best chance for storms and where coverage could become numerous. Pockets of 0.25-0.5" of rain will be possible in stronger storms mainly along and west of I-75. On Tuesday, some lingering moisture will support a few showers developing along the sea breezes as they shift inland Tuesday afternoon. In the easterly flow, high temperatures will have an east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging from upper 70s along the coast to the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The region remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure off the southeastern seaboard. This will bring a return of warmer, drier weather to the region for mid-week. High pressure retreats as a cold front enters the SE US Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall returns to SE GA as moisture increases ahead of the approaching front. The front will be along the FL/GA state border Saturday morning and continue its trek southward into central FL Saturday night. Diurnal instability, sea breeze interactions, and left over convergence north of the front will result in isolated to scatter showers/storms on Saturday. Temperatures return to above seasonable for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Some light patchy fog near VQQ around 12z this morning but sites are VFR at this time with think high clouds streaming overhead. Otherwise, the cold backdoor front will move into the area later today and into tonight while slowing. The front is expected to be accompanied by a wind shift to the east northeast as it passes and eventually bring additional moisture and a chance for showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight. GNV should largely be dry today. Restrictions in cigs will begin later today and started some MVFR for SSI later this aftn and through tonight. For JAX, CRG, and VQQ, started some MVFR cigs toward midnight or just after midnight. There is some suggestion of IFR cigs by this evening for JAX and CRG northward to SSI, and we can`t rule out some IFR at times, but given some model disagreement will hold off for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Short range models in good agreement for back door frontal boundary to push southward into the local waters this afternoon and stall near the FL/GA border tonight. This will send a surge of East to Northeast winds into the local waters, likely at SCEC levels in the 15-20 knot range across SE GA waters, and around 15 knots for the NE FL waters. This will also be accompanied by increasing chances of shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. High pressure will build into the Carolinas on Monday and push the weakening frontal boundary south of the local waters with continued East winds likely at SCEC (15-20 knot) levels along with continued threat of scattered showers and storms. High pressure ridge axis settles over the local waters from Tuesday through Thursday with a return to a general Southeast flow at 10-15 knots. South to Southwest flow will develop on Friday ahead of approaching frontal boundary, which is expected to push through the local waters by early Saturday, but this frontal boundary is expected to be on the weaker side, so headlines are not expected at this time. Rip Currents: Slight increase in swells this morning along with expected increase in Northeast to East winds with frontal passage today will nudge Rip Current Risk to high today and Monday as surf/breakers will continue in the 2-4 ft range, along with elevated crowd levels at the NE FL/SE GA beaches today due to the above normal temps into the mid/upper 80s. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today will be the last hot day with inland min RHs in the 30s. A cold front will drop down into southeast Georgia by this afternoon and stall over the area until Monday. Winds shift to north- northwesterly today and then breezy northeasterly winds develop as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland this afternoon into evening. Low- level moisture gradually increases helping to support an isolated shower along the sea breezes and widely scattered showers/storms along the front in southeast Georgia. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases on Monday. Best chance will be along and west of the I-75 corridor where the sea breezes likely merge. Good inland dispersions and fair coastal dispersions prevail today and Monday. Good dispersions prevail area-wide on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SUN 4/27 JAX 94 (1986) GNV 96 (2011) AMG96 (1986) CRG93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 63 81 61 / 60 40 20 10 SSI 82 69 77 69 / 20 60 30 10 JAX 91 67 80 64 / 20 30 30 10 SGJ 88 69 80 67 / 10 30 30 10 GNV 94 66 87 64 / 20 20 60 20 OCF 95 65 89 65 / 20 20 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228287 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 711 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Behind a cold front, cooler high pressure builds in today through tomorrow. By Tuesday, high pressure shifts offshore and will remain anchored there into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 7 AM Sun...Behind a cold front, cooler and drier high pressure will build in today. Current readings are generally in the 50s, and strong CAA through the day will limit heating despite mostly sunny skies, and afternoon highs will only reach the upper 60s to low 70s (highest across the southern NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 7 AM Sun...High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. The pressure gradient will relax some (especially early), and winds will become very light overnight if not decoupling entirely. As a result, great radiational cooling conditions are likely to develop, which will allow for temps to cool into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Monday into the weekend...Upper level ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and remain in place across the Southeast into the end of the workweek with a weak upper trough passing by well to the north around midweek. At the surface, high pressure ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and gradually push offshore by Tue morning with this ridge remaining centered offshore into the end of the week as well. As a result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with onshore flow on Monday becoming SW`rly by Tuesday allowing for a WAA regime to set up across Carolinas. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, with lows in the 50s. By Tuesday low level thicknesses increase under the WAA regime supporting highs in the 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX and coast. As we get into Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated surface cold front stalling in Virginia with previously mentioned surface high settling in across the Sargasso Sea. This will keep the area under a WAA regime increasing temps even further into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX. The stalled front to the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening, though latest trends in forecast and ensemble guidance has shown a noticeable drying trend. So while we currently have PoP`s in the forecast won`t be surprised if we end up precip free on Wed. Beyond mid week, upper ridging finally pushes offshore with the approach of an upper trough coming in from the north and west. At the surface this will spawn a surface low in the Plains which will track NE`wards with its associated cold front pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Fri and Sat bringing our next potential threat for some unsettled weather. Currently have high end Chc PoP`s in place Fri afternoon and wont be surprised given current trends if we see likely PoPs across the area within the next few days. Some of the AI and ML severe products are hinting at some potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop with this front as well so will have to monitor this potential as we get closer to the weekend. Temps remain slightly above avg into the weekend. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 7 AM Sun...Some lingering low level stratus will cause some spotty MVFR ceilings for the next hour or so. Thereafter, cooler and drier air will move into the airspace with VFR conditions prevailing through early tomorrow morning. Gusty northerly winds to 15-25 mph are expected today, but otherwise skies will be mostly clear with only some high based cirrus around. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging builds overhead and gradually pushes offshore through midweek bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Sun...Small Craft conditions will continue this morning in the wake of a cold front, with strong northerly flow developing. Winds will surge to 25-30 kts with some gusts to Gale Force shortly this morning. Winds will then subside quickly later this morning to become N/NNW at 10-15 kts this afternoon. Northerly winds continue tonight at 10-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through tonight, but will briefly build to 4-6 ft later this morning. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure will remain in control for the most part through the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions into about midweek or so. 10-15 kt NE`rly winds will be noted across our waters Monday morning with seas persisting at 3-5 ft along our coastal waters. Winds will ease down to 5-10 kts by Tue as high pressure builds overhead and pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to an E then SE then S`rly direction. Seas along our coastal waters will also lower down to 2-4 ft. On Wed with the approach of a cold front, winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts coming from the SW with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW`rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 137-230. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ135-156-158- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154. && $$ |
| #1228286 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 713 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 South Florida remains situated between a dipole of surface ridging today, with a ridge axis present in the Gulf in conjunction with a separate foci in the western Atlantic. Not much more exciting when look aloft as there is a dearth of synoptic forcing across the region with quite the stagnant vertical column in place. 05z ACARS data as well as future forecast model soundings show the continuance of a stout mid-level subsidence inversion that will continue to stifle any real rain chances (outside of a few shallow-layer stray isolated showers advecting into the east coast metro areas via easterly flow). A few pockets of patchy fog will be possible through daybreak this morning across southwestern Florida as a nocturnal inversion combined with a moist low-level boundary layer may set the stage for saturation. Given the lack of any synoptic influence aloft, the mesoscale will dictate the weather regime once again today with winds veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out an isolated shower this afternoon along the gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida but overall rain chances remain lackluster. The amplification of a deep-layer ridge across the southeastern United States on Monday will result in the prorogation of a backdoor frontal boundary propagating southwestward across the Florida Peninsula occurring in tandem with a weak upper level shortwave ridge- riding. With the weak boundary on our doorstep, periphery moisture associated with the frontal boundary in tandem with diurnal heating and convergence (localized ascent along the gulf breeze boundary) could set the stage for a few isolated showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida. There will still be considerable amounts of low-level dry air to contend with but if an updraft is able to sustain long enough, forecast model soundings from CAMS such as the HRRR, RAFS, and RAP show enough marginal instability to get a thunderstorm going across inland southwestern Florida. Given how dry the vegetation has become across our area and the isolated nature of any rainfall, any lightning strike could potentially spark new wildfires. High temperatures will be similar this afternoon and once again on Monday, the warmest temperatures are forecast for inland southwestern Florida with widespread high temperatures in the low 90s. Along both the immediate gulf coast as well as the majority of the east coast metro, temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A rinse and repeat weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the work week into the weekend as easterly flow continues and we remain mostly dry. Deep-layer ridging will remain established across the western Atlantic waters through the end of the week with light synoptic flow aloft. Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep rainfall to a minimum. Outside of a few shallow-level stray showers, the stretch of dry and warmth will continue with drought conditions continuing to worsen. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Winds increase this afternoon after 16Z out of the E/SE at 10-15 kts with a westerly Gulf breeze developing at APF this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Easterly winds are expected to remain for the remainder of the second half of the weekend across our local Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. && .BEACHES... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A high risk of rip currents will prevail at Palm Beach county beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents remaining across Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. As easterly flow remains with us for the foreseeable future, the elevated rip current will persist along the east coast for the remainder of much of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Although winds will remain light across the region this afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just below critical levels (low to mid 30s) across inland southwestern Florida. This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 73 84 73 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 87 70 86 70 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 84 73 84 72 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 73 82 72 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 72 83 72 / 0 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 88 75 87 73 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 84 71 84 71 / 0 0 10 20 Boca Raton 85 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 20 Naples 86 70 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228285 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 655 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .UPDATE... Lowered dew points for the daytime as gusty north-northeast winds will support rapid mixing into an increasingly dry air mass overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sharp cold front/undular bore can be seen as a multi-banded thin-lined feature on radar and as a cloud band on satellite imagery dropping southward through the forecast area at this hour with a wind shift to north-northwesterly being observed across the boundary along with a band of low clouds as low-level moisture is lifted over the front. Temps are also warming as this initial surge mixes the air and pressure increases under the frontal wedge. Looking further upstream over central NC, a secondary surge of northerly flow can be seen as well, and this will bring the real cold advection with gusty north winds taking over late in the night and continuing through this morning. Most or all low clouds should clear the forecast area by sunrise with a mix of mid-upper cloudiness streaming overhead through today as vort maxes embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft pass through. Surface high pressure will build southward today, helping to relieve the pressure gradient through the day, causing gusty winds this morning to relax this afternoon. Highs will be tempered by cold advection ahead of this high pressure system, with mid-70s expected across the area. Tonight, with high pressure settling over central NC, the pressure gradient is expected to become weak. This should allow for light and variable winds this evening with some areas even going calm. Amid mainly clear skies and much lower dew points, a relatively chilly night is in store as great radiational cooling takes place away from the immediate coast. Expect upper 40s to low 50s away from the coast with mid-upper 50s along it. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centers itself over eastern NC on Monday leading to another dry day with a sunny sky and aftn sea breeze. Temps right at normal levels for late April...highs in the mid/upr 70s with nighttime lows ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous thinking remains on track this period, with above normal temps and increasing rain chances late in the week. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s Tuesday increase to the low/mid 80s Wednesday as mid-level ridging and associated subsidence keep the forecast dry. Thursday is trending a bit drier as well, with most guidance slower with the ridge transitioning offshore...kept a slight chance of showers over NW areas during the aftn. Better rain chances (30-40% PoPs) then arrive Friday aftn/evening associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Kept some low PoPs for Saturday as the front could potentially take longer to cross the area with this being several days out. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front has cleared the terminals early this morning with a north-northeasterly wind surge poised to arrive over the next few hours, bringing gusty winds to around 20 kts through this morning. Upstream observations indicate transient MVFR cigs may follow behind the incoming wind surge, but these will be relatively short-lived as insolation helps to increase vertical mixing while increasing subsidence aloft brings drier air downward. Low-level winds weaken this afternoon as the gradient slackens, so expect the gustiness to subside as well. Otherwise, expect VFR to dominate the TAF period outside of any MVFR cigs this morning. High pressure centers itself over central NC tonight, with a weak pressure gradient supporting light winds at most terminals, except perhaps KLBT, where calm winds are more likely. Nevertheless, with dry and subsiding air aloft, conditions are not supportive for mist/fog growth beyond shallow ground fog, especially over sources of moisture. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A sharp cold front will continue southward early this morning, pushing through the waters before sunrise. A north- northeasterly surge will follow 2-3 hrs behind this initial wind shift, with gusty winds in the 20-25 kt range through this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Outer portions of the coastal water zones may briefly see gusts just over 25 kts, mainly between 11-13Z, but this anticipated short period and small areal coverage precludes the need for an SCA at this time. Wave heights around 2-4 ft this morning will gradually subside this afternoon and evening to 1-3 ft for tonight. The wave spectrum will remain a combination of ESErly 1-2 ft swells with a period of 9 sec and 1-3 ft north-northeasterly wind waves which veer to northeasterly this afternoon. Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as sfc high pressure builds over the waters then gradually shifts farther offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt with seas steady at 2-3 ft, a combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228284 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 649 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy, cool, and blustery conditions today. High pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday. Dry and mild conditions continue Tuesday, but a cold front arrives mid week which will return temperatures to more seasonable conditions Thursday into Saturday. After a few showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning the next chance for widespread rain comes Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Cool and blustery. A mid level trough/cold pool settles overhead for the second half of the weekend with 500 mb temps around -23C. Expect a good amount of low/mid level clouds beneath this cyclonic flow with a decent 850 mb LLJ bringing breezy conditions to the region, gusting as high as 40- 45 mph in the higher terrain of the interior. However, the strongest core of the jet doesn`t move overhead until late evening/early overnight when BUFKIT soundings suggest the boundary layer decouples which should keep any widespread potentially damaging wind gusts aloft. In the cooler post frontal airmass with little sun, high temperatures only make it into the 50s. Overnight clear skies return with high pressure moving overhead. The encroaching low/mid level ridge brings a milder airmass as well; lows bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key messages... * Warmer and less windy. Dry weather. High pressure ridging moves overhead. This both shuts down the wind and pumps up the temperatures. The center of the high moves just south of SNE on Monday and low level winds begin to back to the S; plenty of sun and low level WAA allow high temps to reach into the mid 70s on Monday making for a pleasant late April day, quite a bit warmer than average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry conditions Tuesday. Few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. * Near seasonable temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. While Thursday is dry, rain chances return for Friday into Saturday. Monday Night through Wednesday: Monday night there is the potential for cooler temperatures because of radiational cooling, did blend in the cooler CONSMOS guidance which gave lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s across interior southern and known areas that radiate well along the I-495 corridor and Martha`s Vineyard, elsewhere middle and upper 40s. The axis of the ridge shifts east Tuesday evening and a northern stream trough and cold front approaches from the west. Will have warm temperatures Tuesday from the middle to upper 70s, while at the coast still cooler in the 60s. SW flow on Tuesday ushers in higher PWATs, ahead of an approaching mid-level trough and surface cold front. While a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are possible, it looks the best forcing with the cold front comes too late as the best moisture exits east of New England before the cold front arrives. The timing of the cold front will dictate the high temperatures for Wednesday, thinking it could be a slow moving front, which may allow the coast plain to warm up nicely into the low and middle 70s, while those interior locations only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Cold front moves across the region and brings a shot of colder air across all of southern New England, widespread upper 30s to low 40s. Thursday through Saturday: Drier Thursday and seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s as weak high pressure briefly in control. But is quickly followed by unsettled weather and the return of rain on Friday and potentially into next Saturday with the passage of low pressure system to our northwest. Temperatures Friday and Saturday are in the upper 60s to near 70F. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight: High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Gusts to 30-35 kt possible across the region during the afternoon/evening hours, dropping off overnight. Monday: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts less than 15 knts before 18z. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in lower ceilings Sunday. VFR. Gusty winds continue through tonight and Sunday with the cold frontal passage. BKN 030-050 stratocumulus develop Sunday. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in lower ceilings Sunday. VFR. Gusty winds continue through tonight and Sunday with the cold frontal passage. BKN 030-050 stratocumulus develop Sunday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kts with seas of 3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through tonight across the eastern waters into Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay, with wind gusts to 25 kt and higher possible. Seas tonight ranging from 4-6 ft. Monday high pressure moves overhead and both winds and seas decrease. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232-250- 254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256. && $$ |
| #1228283 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 645 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns today and Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for the middle to late part of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cooldown by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Cooler with highs in the lower 70s for most. - Breezy with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Early morning surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure over Maine with a strong area of high pressure (~1028 mb) over the Great Lakes. While both of these features remain fairly far away, the pressure gradient between them is still tight enough to allow for gusty winds through the afternoon across the area. NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore are expected. Additionally, with the well-mixed environment, RH values will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore). However, given yesterday`s rainfall (while generally light) and most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears below IFD threshold. Nevertheless, caution should be exercised and residents are reminded that the VA burn ban remains in effect until April 30th for any fires before 4 PM. Winds diminish quickly this evening as high pressure builds into the area with calm winds expected tonight. Otherwise, temps as of 635 AM ranged from the upper 40s to around 50F for most to the mid 50s SE. The exception is interior Louisa County which was reading around 40F. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cool conditions are expected today with highs in the lower 70s for most (upper 60s to around 70F across the Eastern Shore). Recent satellite loops have shown scattered cirrus moving across the area with the HRRR notably keeping this cloud cover around through much of the day, particularly across the S half of the FA. As such, have increased cloud cover across this region to partly cloudy. Given the strong area of high pressure overhead tonight, calm winds, and clear skies, expect efficient radiational cooling overnight with lows likely ending up below model guidance. As such, have trended below NBM and leaned towards statistical guidance (MAV/MET) with lows in the low-mid 40s inland (most in the lower 40s) and upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast expected. Will note that some rural locations may drop into the upper 30s, however, temps should remain above frost headline criteria. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and dry conditions are expected early this week. High pressure remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. As such, clear skies and light/calm winds are expected Mon with partly cloudy skies Tue. Temps moderate both days with highs in the mid 70s for most Mon and low-mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, winds become SW and breezy Tue with gusts up to 20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. Otherwise, dry conditions continue with min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected from the middle to later part of the week with highs well above normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week with a shortwave trough moving from the central/southern Plains Wed to the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough phases with a longwave trough dropping S from Canada Thu, eventually moving into the East Coast next weekend. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast while a ridge builds across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast. This will allow for well above normal temps from mid to late week. Highs in the 80s (most in the upper 80s) Wed and Thu and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for the low to track farther N and for the front to stall near or N of the local area. As such temps have trended warmer for Thu. Scattered, mainly diurnal showers and storms are possible Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings. A strong cold front approaches the area Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs back in the 70s by Sat. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Sunday... Morning satellite imagery showed scattered cirrus across the S half of the area with some cirrus even moving across the Eastern Shore. The HRRR appears to be handling this cloud cover the best and shows clouds lingering across the S half of the area through the day. As such, have increased cloud cover and now expect scattered cirrus over PHF/ORF/ECG through the day. NW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) later this morning into this afternoon with winds remaining 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt elsewhere. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday and slides offshore Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by Wednesday and Thursday bringing a chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - NNW winds around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt will continue through mid morning before slowly diminishing today. - SCAs continue for all zones through at least late this afternoon. - Calmer conditions return tonight into the first half of the week. Deepening low pressure is tracking from northern New England toward Atlantic Canada early this morning and the cold front that crossed the waters last evening is now well to our south. As expected, N-NW winds are averaging ~25 kt with frequent 30-35 kt gusts. Occasional gusts to 40 knots have been noted at elevated terminals. These elevated N-NW winds are expected to continue through 7-9 AM before gradually diminishing during the day today. Wind speeds are expected to average 15 kt by early evening. SCAs remain in effect for all zones until 4 PM (7 PM for the bay N of New Pt Comfort). While there will be an additional weak push of CAA tonight, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds now aob 10%. Therefore, have kept the SCA end times as is. Light onshore flow is expected on Monday as high pressure builds overhead. The high moves offshore Mon night/Tue, allowing the winds become southerly and increase to 15 kt by Tue aftn. SCAs potentially return (mainly on the bay/Lower James) by Tuesday night/early Wednesday AM due to 15-20 kt SSW winds. While there is still some uncertainty at this time range, local wind probabilities for >18kt are 50-90% on the bay for a few hours Tue night/early Wed. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wed through Thu. Waves and seas are 3-5 ft/4-6 ft at this hour and will remain elevated through much of the day today before dropping below SCA criteria this evening. Am generally expecting 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing to 3-4 ft/2-3 ft by Tue night/ Wednesday AM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228282 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from late this afternoon into this evening. The air mass will be marginally moist today. Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an axis of 1.3-1.4 inch values stretching from near Destin to Albany. Weak to locally moderate convective instability is expected this afternoon. A cap of warm and dry mid-level air will get partially eroded by a weak upper disturbance passing southeast through Georgia late today, and deep-layer bulk shear will reach to near 20 knots as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Lastly, we will have low-level focus spreading inland with the Panhandle seabreeze, and with a back door cold front that will spread southwest across Georgia starting this afternoon. So a lot of marginal factors will get a boost from the upper dynamics and low- level focus. Individual storms will not be especially strong or prolonged, but any thunderstorm is capable of gusty winds and lightning. In advance of the back door cold front, it will be hot. Highs will rise well above 90F over inland portions of the FL Big Bend region. Remember those routine summer hot weather tips, such as staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, and planning outdoor work during the cooler morning and evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwesterly upper level flow lightens and becomes northerly as it gives way to an upper level ridge building in from the west late Monday into Tuesday. As this ridge builds, the longwave pattern becomes more amplified across the eastern third of the country and surface high pressure will fill in from the northeast as a backdoor frontal boundary moves in. When combined with diurnal heating and low-level moisture, we should see scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary. The best probabilities are across our south-central GA counties and FL Big Bend counties. Additional coverage is likely along seabreeze boundaries, especially the Apalachee Bay seabreeze in the southeast FL Big Bend. Additional coverage is possible on Tuesday, but as the background front becomes more ill defined and the upper level ridge axis moves overhead, expect lesser coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures will continue to remain well above normal, and in the upper 80s and around 90, but with the backdoor front moving in some areas across GA will at least see temperatures a little closer to normal in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Upper level ridge breaks down through the week as our next system approaches the southeast US while surface high pressure moves east into the western Atlantic at the start of the period. The axis of the surface high will be elongated westward so expect flow to become east and southeasterly through the long term and then southerly by Friday and the upcoming weekend as the pattern becomes a little more active. Increasing rain chances can be expected by Friday and potentially into the weekend depending on how the upper level pattern evolves. None of these next few systems appears to bring significant rainfall, but at this point we`ll welcome anything we can get given drought conditions encroaching on the region. High temperatures will remain above normal and in the upper 80s. Some 90 degree days are possible until rain chances increase with the passing of the late-week system. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through sunrise, low cloud and perhaps some fog development is expected along and southwest of a DHN-TLH line, including ECP. Fog and low clouds will be shallow, and therefore quick to lift and scatter out starting 1-2 hours after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected for most of this afternoon. Then late this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, aided by the seabreeze front from the Gulf coast, and a back door cold front spreading southwest through Georgia. Have included lower confidence mentions of thunder until a couple hours after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A bubble of high pressure will reside over the far northeast Gulf through Monday afternoon, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze the main driver of wind. Fog is possible each morning over the protected waters of the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Stronger high pressure will move down the eastern seaboard into the western Atlantic toward Bermuda from Monday night through Wednesday, bringing a turn to easterly flow. Nocturnal increasing in easterly winds can be expected in this pattern, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights. Seas will remain around 1 to 3 feet through the next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Late afternoon and evening air mass thunderstorms will be the main concern today and again on Monday. Individual storms will be short- lived and not especially strong, but storms will nonetheless come with gusty winds and lightning. The two focus areas will be over the inland Panhandle because of the seabreeze, and over the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley, thanks to a back door cold front slipping in from the northeast. Areas of locally dense fog are expected over Panhandle and southeast Alabama districts early this morning, then again early Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Rain chances increase on Monday and later in the upcoming week, but at this time amounts will generally be under an inch and no significant riverine or hydrological concerns are expected. This rainfall will also likely not be enough to diminish the D0 - abnormally dry - conditions in place per the latest drought monitor. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 66 89 66 / 20 10 40 10 Panama City 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 89 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 10 Albany 90 66 85 65 / 30 40 40 10 Valdosta 92 67 87 66 / 30 40 60 10 Cross City 91 63 90 64 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228281 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 557 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area this morning. High pressure will prevail through much of this week. Another cold front could approach the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is running about 1-2 hours slower than expected. Near term adjustments were made to reflect this trend, but no major changes were made. Today: A cold front approaching from the north will move across southern South Carolina over the next few hours and will be near the I-16 corridor as daybreak approaches. The frontal wind shift will then push south of the Altamaha River by late morning. The front will become increasingly more shallow the farther south it propagates and despite the northeast wind shift meandering into far southern Georgia later this morning and into the afternoon, the tightest moisture, instability and thermal gradients are forecast to remain across Southeast Georgia, most likely near the I-16 corridor. South of these gradients, there will be a risk for isolated to scattered showers/tstms as instability builds and convergence increases ahead of the sea breeze. In fact, convection could pop by early afternoon along the immediate Georgia coast with additional activity forming farther inland as the afternoon progresses. Pops range from near 0-5% north of the Savannah River to 20-30% south of I-16, highest over parts of Tattnal, Long, Liberty and McIntosh Counties. North of primary temperature/moisture gradients, a somewhat cooler and drier airmass will prevail with weak cold air advection noted. It will still remain warm, but it will feel a bit drier compared to the past several days. Highs will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s across Southeast South Carolina, mid-upper 80s across Southeast Georgia with a few spots likely topping out near 90. Cooler temperatures will persist at the beaches and near the immediate coast where breezy to windy conditions will be common in the pinched gradient that develops behind the front. Gusts could be as high as 30 mph at times at the beaches. The modified RAP sounding at KLHW shows weak to moderate instability (for late April) developing by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE running about 1500 J/kg and lifted indices running as low as -4C. There is about 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that develops during day, but with only weak-moderate instability expected, tstms will likely remain disorganized. DCAPE values do surge to a respectable 1000 J/kg with a considerable amount of mid-level dry air noted, but again, the marginal instability suggests the damaging wind potential is limited with the strongest storms likely producing winds no higher than 50 mph. Small hail could also occur within locally stronger updrafts. Tonight: A few showers could continue to percolate near the Altamaha River overnight as the remnants of the cold front meander nearby and interact with a piece of weak shortwave energy that is expected to pass through after midnight. Pops near 20% were maintained for much of the tonight period to account for this. Low clouds and possibly a little fog could also occur for counties nearest to the Altamaha River. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy outside of this area. Lows will range from the mid-upper 50s inland and north of I-16, upper 50s/lower 60s inland and south of I-16, lower-mid 60s across the coastal counties with upper 60s at the beaches. It will also remain a bit gusty at the beaches through the night, although winds will tend to lower through the early morning hours Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north on Monday as upper level ridging occurs. The leading edge of the front will be across far south GA. There could be just enough moisture and forcing along the Altamaha River to support isolated showers or tstms. Otherwise, relatively dry air will be spreading in from the north and temps will be near normal. A strong upper ridge will build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday while Atlantic high pressure strengthens. Dry and warm weather will ensue with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s inland on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Thursday as a relatively progressive pattern develops late week. A cold front could sag into the area on Friday, bringing an increase in rain chances. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 27/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: A cold front will be clearing the terminals at the beginning of the 12z TAF period. VFR will prevail through the period. KSAV: The cold front will reach the terminal by 13-14z. VFR will prevail for much of the 12z TAF period. There is a risk that some MVFR cigs could spread in from the south later this evening and overnight as a disturbance passes through aloft. Guidance is mixed whether cigs will drop to MVFR with the best chances for IFR and MVFR cigs occurring from roughly KRVJ-KLHW and points south to the Altamaha River. Low VFR cigs were highlighted with a scattered deck around 2500 ft for now. A few showers could develop near KSAV as the sea breeze gets a bit active early this afternoon, but the best coverage should remain to the south and southwest. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today: A cold front will drop south through the waters this morning resulting in a steady northeast. The gradient is expected to tighten in the wake of the front as high pressure noses south. This will result in northeast winds around 20 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt becoming common. Models typically under forecast speeds in the pinched gradient northeast flow regimes, and the forecast has been modified to reflect this. Seas will build 3-5 ft by this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for all waters except the Charleston Harbor. For the Charleston Harbor, winds look to remain just shy of advisory levels, peaking 15-20 kt with waves 1-2 ft. Tonight: Winds will slowly weaken through the night as the gradient begins to relax. Winds could fall below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by midnight, although gusts could remain close to 25 kt through the night across both Georgia marine legs. Seas will hold 3-5 ft. Monday through Friday: A decent ENE gradient will persist into Monday as strong high pressure continues to build from the north. Winds are expected to remain just below advisory criteria, with diminishing speeds through the day. For the remainder of the forecast period, conditions will stay well below headline criteria. Rip Currents: A continued 2 ft, 9-10 second swell will persist today. Breezy to windy conditions will occur over the beaches as a pinched gradient develops with the passage of a cold front. These conditions will push the rip current risk into the high category for all beaches. Rip currents were reported at both Hilton Head and Tybee Island Saturday. Both the number and strength of the rip currents will likely increase today. A moderate risk is in place for all beaches Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Positive tidal departures are expected to build today as northeast winds increase in the wake of a passing cold front. Tide levels are expected to peak around 7.5 ft MLLW (moderate) in the Charleston Harbor and 9.7 ft MLLW (minor) at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties as confidence in reaching advisory thresholds is the highest this far out. The advisory may need to be expanded to include the remainder of the lower South Carolina and the middle-upper Georgia coast later today pending further refinements to the local Total Water Forecasts. The risk for at least minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides will persist into Tuesday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ354-374. && $$ |
| #1228280 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 432 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through Monday night... Upper level shortwave energy that has topped an upper ridge stretching north over the Plains moves south along the east side of the ridge Sunday into Sunday night, allowing the ridge to become re- established Monday. Surface high pressure builds off the Carolina coast early in the coming week, with a ridge building southwest over the Southeast. A surface boundary that has stalled over the Southeast washes out and a more organized southeast to southerly flow becomes established over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western half of the Southeast in response. Even with the onshore flow, high moisture levels over the Southeast (1.4"-1.6") see a drop Monday into Monday night (to around 1") as subsidence created drier air in the mid and upper levels over the Gulf moves inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Already low rain chances Sunday (slight chance east of the Tombigbee River) decrease even further Monday as a result. Low level moisture remains high enough for patchy overnight fog to develop the next few days, though. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well above seasonal norms through the Near Term. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s well inland from the coast, low to mid 80s closer to the coast are expected Sunday and Monday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, mid to upper south to the coast are expected Sunday and Monday nights. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today quickly settles to Low as organized onshore flow eases. /16 Tuesday through Saturday... An upper ridge pivots eastward over the southeast states through Wednesday, leading to dry and continued well above normal temperatures. The influence of the ridge lessens its grip the second half of the work week as it shifts east off the southeast US coast. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system approaches the lower MS River Valley Thursday. With this feature`s eastward advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by later in the day Friday. An increase in cloud cover and rain chances expected Thursday and Friday. The front pushes south Saturday and brings a return to drier weather. /10 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions over the forecast area are expected to see local drops to low end MVFR/IFR after 09z as fog develops. Best chance will be southeast of I-65. Areas east of the Tombigbee will see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with local drops in conditions to low end MVFR possible in the stronger storms. Any convection will quickly decrease with the setting sun Sunday evening. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A light and variable, diurnally driven flow is expected into the coming week. As onshore flow becomes established Tuesday and remains so through the rest of the week, winds remain light to at times moderate, with a slow increase in waves as swell from the Gulf increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 65 86 65 86 66 85 68 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 84 67 83 68 81 70 81 70 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 83 69 83 70 82 71 82 70 / 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 90 63 90 62 88 63 89 63 / 20 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 89 63 89 62 89 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 10 10 Camden 87 63 88 63 88 63 88 65 / 20 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 Crestview 89 62 89 62 87 63 87 63 / 20 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228279 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:39 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 433 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft. This will produce very warm and dry weather across the region through Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. High temperatures today and Monday will range from the 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s along and west of the I-69E corridor. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 70s with increasing clouds. A modest to slightly enhanced pressure gradient will support breezy southeast winds, especially near the coast, today and Monday. Elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Dry weather will dominate the first half of the long term forecast period, as the center of 500 mb high pressure nearly directly over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually eases towards the east. A pattern shift will then occur later in the week, with a series of mid-level shortwaves riding within a west-southwest to east-northeast flow. This will produce a risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily beginning on Thursday. Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are also anticipated, aided by a breezy to windy onshore flow. In fact, winds may be strong enough on Tuesday to warrant a Wind Advisory for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley at that time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies with a few passing low clouds. Will include a TEMPO group for the brief MVFR ceilings. Low clouds are expected to increase and spread across Deep South Texas overnight leading to MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings will return later this morning as southeast winds increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease to 10 to 15 knots later this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 10 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas slightly under 3.9 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with a modest pressure gradient in place. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Laguna Madre today and Monday and on the nearshore Waters on Monday due to slightly stronger winds. A brief Small Craft Advisory cannot be entirely ruled out on the Laguna Madre each afternoon, if winds become more breezier than forecast. (Monday Night through Saturday) An enhanced pressure gradient will produce Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions along the Lower Texas Coast from Monday night through Friday. The approach of a weak cold front from the north will weaken the gradient for Saturday, allowing for lighter winds and lower seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 74 87 75 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 74 80 75 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1228278 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 355 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 There will be some activity around today and should be mainly along and north of a line from Slidell to McComb. But as the next few days go by, there will be less and less storms around. But the heat will build to around 90F for the first of the week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Strong capping through mid week will be the culprit for reducing the amount of storms around through Wed. But as the second half of the week starts, there will be more sh/ts around starting Thu. A front will move near the TX/LA border and stall but sending a few disturbances eastward for Thu. Another front will move into the area by the weekend keeping things unsettled. But most of this activity will be diurnally driven as well move into the weekend. And eventhough the risk level is not high, some of these storms could be strong or severe. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR through this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will be centered directly over or just to the east of the waters through Wed which will result in light winds of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet on average. Winds will begin to rise to around 15kt by Thu but should remain less than 20kt through the end of the week outside any storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 65 87 66 / 10 20 0 0 BTR 89 66 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 ASD 87 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 87 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 68 84 69 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 86 65 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228276 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 457 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 449 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Weather conditions have been quiet during the overnight shift, a drastic difference compared to this time 24 hours ago. At first glance, our KBYX radar looks very noisy (for lack of a better word), but the only meteorological returns currently are a few isolated, light showers over Hawk Channel and the distant Florida Straits. Everything else on the radar looks like it is just anomalous propagation. CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT shows a blanket of values around one inch across the area, and we expect our morning balloon launch to reflect a similar value. The WPC surface analysis shows high pressure draped over the region, and this will help to maintain light to gentle easterly breezes today. Nighttime GOES-19 imagery shows some scattered cloud coverage, but this won`t do much in terms of blocking out the sunshine today. The forecast will continue to reflect the agreement between both deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the stagnant pattern. High pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature through the week, and the only appreciable impact to our sensible weather will be freshening breezes during the middle of the week as the pressure gradient associated with this high tightens. Otherwise, we will maintain fairly average weather along the Florida Keys this week with warm temperatures and only a slight chance (10%) of showers beginning Monday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 449 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, an area of high pressure encompassing the southeastern U.S. will continue to support gentle to moderate easterly breezes today and tomorrow. A period of fresh breezes is expected during the middle of the week as the high pressure strengthens, but breezes will slacken again by the end of the week. The overall pattern will remain dry, but occasional pushes of moisture may lead to some isolated showers throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 449 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Despite occasional bouts of SCT cloud cover based at around FL025, especially in the pre-dawn hours, VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals, with near-nil rain chances. Near-surface winds will remain out of the east at 8 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1881, the daily record high temperature of 91F was recorded in Key West. This is also the warmest temperature ever recorded in April at Key West. Temperature data for Key West date back to July 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 74 83 75 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 82 74 82 75 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228275 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 453 AM AST Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through midweek. A high rip current risk is in effect for the northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo and Culebra through at least late tonight. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday... Radar and satellite imagery showed cloudy skies across the islands during the overnight period. Some showers moved into eastern municipalities, with the highest rainfall accumulations reported in Fajardo, ranging from around 1.0 to 2.0 inches as of 4 AM AST, based on radar estimates. Numerous showers and thunderstorms persisted through the night across the Caribbean waters. Surface weather stations registered light winds, mainly from the east. Overnight temperatures ranged from the lower 60s in the mountains to the mid- 70s across urban and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The forecast remains generally on track. A wet and unstable weather pattern is expected to continue through the forecast period across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, bringing periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms enhanced by the presence of a deep-layer trough and above-normal moisture. Based on the latest model guidance, moisture content is expected to peak today between 2.0 and 2.1 inches, which is above climatological levels for this time of year. Although mid-level clouds may slightly limit convective development, the available moisture and prevailing instability will still favor afternoon thunderstorms, especially over interior and northwestern Puerto Rico, as winds are expected to shift from the east to southeast during the day. Soils remain saturated from recent heavy rainfall, so the flood risk will stay elevated, similar to yesterday, as soils and rivers may respond quickly. Potential impacts today include lightning, strong winds, heavy rainfall, landslides, and river flooding. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out. In the coming days, the wet pattern is anticipated to continue under the prevailing influence of the trough. Although moisture content will slightly decrease, it will remain in the above-normal to average range maintain the wet pattern, with strongest activity mainly during the afternoons. Winds will turn more form the east to north east from Monday night onward shifting the afternoon concentration of showers and thunderstorms a little more to the southeast of the main island. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay weather-aware and monitor official forecast updates, especially due to the ongoing flood risk, which remains the primary hazard. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... A wet and unstable weather pattern will persist through the early part of the long-term forecast. A surface high-pressure system over the western Atlantic and a surface low over the central Atlantic will induce east-northeast winds across the CWA. These northeast winds will promote low-level convergence over the region, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday, when the surface low will be closest to the northeast. Precipitable water content is expected to remain between 1.7 and above 1.9 inches. These values exceed the 75th and 90th percentiles of the climatological normal, indicating a continuation of well-above-normal moisture levels for this time of year. In terms of instability, the surface low is being induced by an upper-level cut-off low. These features will lead to a further drop in 250 mb height fields, cooler 500 mb temperatures, and steeper lapse rates, sustaining unstable weather conditions capable of generating deep convective activity. The likelihood of convection will be highest during the afternoon hours, as high moisture content and instability combine with surface heating and local effects. Soils are expected to remain somewhat saturated by Wednesday due to rains from previous days, with rivers still experiencing elevated streamflows. Consequently, the flood risk will remain elevated through at least Thursday, particularly during the afternoon hours. Quick river rises, river flooding, and landslides are also possible, primarily across Puerto Rico. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, minor flooding with brief periods of excessive runoff is possible each day of the week. Some ridging aloft will bring somewhat more stable weather conditions by the end of the workweek into the weekend. Nevertheless, enough low-level moisture could combine with diurnal heating and local effects during the afternoon to promote convective activity in localized areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) VFR conds across most western TAF sites this morning. -SHRA/VCTS across TJSJ and likely USVI TAF sites may result in intermittent MVFR conds and reduced VIS trough the morning hours. SHRA are expected to develop after 15 to 16Z across the Cordillera Central, spreading toward the west/northwest. Mtn top obsc likely through 27/23z. Winds will prevail btwn 5-10 kt with higher gust within t-storms. Mainly from the ESE with sea breeze variations today, becoming from the E tonight. && .MARINE... Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through at least tonight, backing from the northeast winds early this week. A deep layer trough will continue to promote an unstable weather pattern across the local waters. Thus, showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist, producing localized hazardous marine conditions. This unstable and wet pattern will prevail through at least midweek. A long-period northeasterly swell is spreading across the Atlantic waters. Therefore, small craft should exercise caution. && .BEACH FORECAST... Nearshore buoy 41053 is already detecting 13-14s pulses of the weak northerly swell. As a result, a Rip Current Statement continues in effect for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, as well as the beaches of Culebra. For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). Residents and visitors in affected regions should heed warnings, avoid swimming in these waters, and stay informed about updates from local authorities. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228274 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 448 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today - Warmer today with near record highs for some interior locations; isolated showers late in the day north/west of Orlando. - Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) interior with risk of lightning strikes && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today...Weak high pressure ridge will remain draped across central FL, just shifted a bit south. This will result in a slightly delayed sea breeze, esp north of the Cape, so max temps will reach the mid 80s coast (even upper 80s Volusia coast) before the sea breeze knocks those temps down a bit this aftn. Max temps over the interior will reach the lower 90s, even a few mid 90s possible. Leesburg will have the best chance to equal/exceed its record high of 93F. A weakening/decaying frontal boundary across the deep South extending offshore GA will temporarily lose momentum and stall. While most areas will remain dry today, a slight increase in moisture across northern sections (PWATs ~1.25") should be sufficient to generate isolated showers as the seas breeze interacts with larger lake breezes (Lake George) and eventually a collision with the west coast sea breeze over Lake county/Villages late in the day. A small (1 FT) but very long period (13-14 sec) background ENE swell is impacting the surf zone. After collaborating with WFOs JAX and MIA, we have raised a High risk of rip currents at the beaches. On Mon, the decaying front and its assocd moisture will be shunted SW across the area as reinforcing high pressure pushes SE off the Carolina coast. With PWATs increasing ~1.5", isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast. This represents the best chance for rain in some time for parts of the area but most coastal locations esp south of the Cape will not see any rain. The best chance for showers and storms will be over the interior sections in the afternoon sparked by sea breeze interactions. There, a few of these storms Mon aftn/eve could be strong containing gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any lightning strikes will bring the risk of sparking brush fires. Tue-Sat...Breezy onshore flow coupled with sufficient low level moisture will support isolated onshore-moving showers from the Atlc early Tue. Drier air is forecast to advect from the east Wed-Thu as the ridge axis settles south into central FL so will maintain a dry forecast with PoPs 10% or less. The breezy onshore flow Tue will hold max temps to the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. But warming up mid week, reaching the lower 90s interior and mid 80s coast by Thu. Ridge axis slips south of the area by Fri which will promote a more S/SW flow, delaying the sea breeze and producing warmer max temps at the coast. Fri daytime looks mostly dry but a sea breeze collision on the east side of the peninsula late in the day may harness enough meager low level moisture and and instability aloft to generate isolated storms into Fri eve. A slightly better chance (~30%) for sea breeze storms exists on Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A weak Atlantic ridge axis will remain over the area today with light winds enhanced by the sea breeze near the coast in the afternoon. Reinforcing high pressure will push southeast and off the mid Atlantic coast Monday. Remnants of a decaying frontal boundary and its associated moisture will push southwest across the area, generating isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms Monday and Monday night. Breezy east winds around 15 knots Mon night and Tue will build seas 4 to 6 FT and produce poor boating conditions. A Caution headline looks likely for the offshore waters. Then high pressure ridge axis settles southward toward central FL and the adjacent Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday resulting in decreasing winds and subsiding seas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions anticipated through the period at all local terminals. Light and variable winds through early this morning, with winds becoming east- southeast around 10 knots as the sea breeze develops along the coast and moves inland. There is a low (20 percent) chance for shower development across the interior terminals between 21-00Z as the east coast sea breeze moves inland and collides with the west coast sea breeze. Kept mention of VCSH at MCO, ISM, and SFB, and added LEE in, though confidence remains low. Winds becoming light around 5 knots once again overnight, generally out of the southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Very warm and dry conditions are forecast today with continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower to near 35% across the interior this afternoon while holding above 40 percent along the coast where dewpoints and humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday as moisture and onshore winds increase before reducing back to 35-40% over the interior on Wednesday. Light winds today will be enhanced by an East sea breeze with speeds 10-15 mph. Maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior today with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally Good dispersion values are forecast today with Generally Good to Very Good Dispersions on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (~20-30% chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the potential to spark brush fires given the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 67 82 67 / 10 20 30 10 MCO 93 67 88 68 / 10 10 40 20 MLB 85 68 83 69 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 85 67 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 LEE 93 68 89 67 / 20 20 50 20 SFB 93 68 88 66 / 10 10 40 10 ORL 93 68 88 68 / 10 10 40 10 FPR 85 66 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228273 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 We are into a warm and fair weather pattern, but the middle of the week looks to see us shift back into a more active weather pattern when another front slogs into the region. Some of the top things to remember about the forecast into the new week: - Like many late spring fronts, this boundary will struggle to push much into our area, if at all. But where it does, there will be ample moisture available for locally heavy rains. A marginal risk of excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) is in place in the northern portions of the area on Wednesday, roughly north of a Brenham to Livingston line. - Temperatures today look to be very similar to yesterday, with inland locations reaching up into the upper 80s again. Warm conditions will persist into the work week, but some increased cloudiness should knock a couple degrees off of afternoon highs. - At area beaches, persistent onshore flow will gradually result in higher water levels at high tide, and increased threats of rip currents. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure and ridging is the name of the game over the northwestern Gulf this weekend. Surface analysis shows high pressure over the Louisiana coast, giving us persistent light to moderate onshore winds. This holds through the lower levels, but from 700 mb up, the ridge axis drifts back to the west over the western Gulf coast. This is a recipe for a warm, humid stretch with fair weather and that`s exactly what the forecast calls for. From a start in the upper 60s and around 70 degrees, we should get right back into the upper half of the 80s for all but the Gulf coast, which will get held back in the lower 80s by the moderating Gulf waters. While tonight looks like it will go very similar to this early morning, we may not reach quite as high in the afternoon, perhaps only into the middle to upper 80s, knocking just a few degrees off of today. The reasoning behind this is that the ridging setup looks to make its way a little more to the east as an upper trough digs into the Desert Southwest. We may even see a little bit of midlevel vorticity roll through. Ultimately, the result should be a little more afternoon cloudiness. Not a big difference, but enough to shave a bit of heat off the top. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Persistent southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to warm and humid weather for the majority of next week. High temperatures Tuesday through Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area with max heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Increased rain chances on Thursday may lead to localized cooler than forecasted high temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s for most of next week with perhaps a slight cool down heading into next weekend with lows in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level low will be moving into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Some isolated showers or storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon in SE Texas just thanks to increased moisture and PVA ahead of the trough. However, rain chances increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the associated weak cold front moves into the region. Some uncertainty on the timing (could be as early as midnight Wednesday night or as late as noon Thursday) and how far the cold front makes it into the region before stalling/retreating back north (could make it to I-10 or off the coast). Some cooler/drier air will likely filter into the region on Thursday behind the boundary, but onshore flow quickly returns bringing back warm, humid conditions. Passing weak disturbances aloft may trigger additional showers and storms Friday and Saturday, but coverage is looking limited at this time. Fowler && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1200-1800ft will begin within the next few hours across the area with UTS and CXO possibly dropping down to IFR conditions at times due to CIGs around 700ft. Patchy fog is also possible, but likely not as dense as last night. VFR conditions return to the area by the mid-morning as the clouds scatter out, but return late tomorrow night with MVFR CIGs returning. Light southeasterly winds around 3-6kt will persist through the morning, increasing to around 8-12kt with gusts to 20kt during the afternoon and evening before lowering again below 7kts by sunset. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of next week with gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning or afternoon. The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly needed by Tuesday or Wednesday. Abnormally high astronomical tides and the increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 88 69 87 70 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 87 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228272 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 357 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today through Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A sharp cold front/undular bore can be seen as a multi-banded thin-lined feature on radar and as a cloud band on satellite imagery dropping southward through the forecast area at this hour with a wind shift to north-northwesterly being observed across the boundary along with a band of low clouds as low-level moisture is lifted over the front. Temps are also warming as this initial surge mixes the air and pressure increases under the frontal wedge. Looking further upstream over central NC, a secondary surge of northerly flow can be seen as well, and this will bring the real cold advection with gusty north winds taking over late in the night and continuing through this morning. Most or all low clouds should clear the forecast area by sunrise with a mix of mid-upper cloudiness streaming overhead through today as vort maxes embedded in the west-northwesterly flow aloft pass through. Surface high pressure will build southward today, helping to relieve the pressure gradient through the day, causing gusty winds this morning to relax this afternoon. Highs will be tempered by cold advection ahead of this high pressure system, with mid-70s expected across the area. Tonight, with high pressure settling over central NC, the pressure gradient is expected to become weak. This should allow for light and variable winds this evening with some areas even going calm. Amid mainly clear skies and much lower dew points, a relatively chilly night is in store as great radiational cooling takes place away from the immediate coast. Expect upper 40s to low 50s away from the coast with mid-upper 50s along it. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centers itself over eastern NC on Monday leading to another dry day with a sunny sky and aftn sea breeze. Temps right at normal levels for late April...highs in the mid/upr 70s with nighttime lows ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous thinking remains on track this period, with above normal temps and increasing rain chances late in the week. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s Tuesday increase to the low/mid 80s Wednesday as mid-level ridging and associated subsidence keep the forecast dry. Thursday is trending a bit drier as well, with most guidance slower with the ridge transitioning offshore...kept a slight chance of showers over NW areas during the aftn. Better rain chances (30-40% PoPs) then arrive Friday aftn/evening associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Kept some low PoPs for Saturday as the front could potentially take longer to cross the area with this being several days out. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is dropping southward and will cross through the terminals over the next few hours. A low risk for brief MVFR cigs exists, but upstream observations suggest this is too low to mention in the TAFs. The same can be said about the risk for rain, as it appears the sole line of thunderstorms will pass well to the east of the NC terminals. While a brief shower cannot be ruled out as the front passes through, the risk is also too low to mention and would be very short-lived. Thus, beyond any brief restrictions with the frontal passage, expect VFR through the remainder of the period. Gusty north winds will affect the terminals late tonight as cold advection peaks, but gusts will gradually subside through the morning. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A sharp cold front will continue southward early this morning, pushing through the waters before sunrise. A north- northeasterly surge will follow 2-3 hrs behind this initial wind shift, with gusty winds in the 20-25 kt range through this morning before subsiding this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Outer portions of the coastal water zones may briefly see gusts just over 25 kts, mainly between 11-13Z, but this anticipated short period and small areal coverage precludes the need for an SCA at this time. Wave heights around 2-4 ft this morning will gradually subside this afternoon and evening to 1-3 ft for tonight. The wave spectrum will remain a combination of ESErly 1-2 ft swells with a period of 9 sec and 1-3 ft north-northeasterly wind waves which veer to northeasterly this afternoon. Monday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as sfc high pressure builds over the waters then gradually shifts farther offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt with seas steady at 2-3 ft, a combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... King tides will lead to higher-than-normal astronomical tides for the next several high tide cycles. Thus, a few rounds of minor tidal flooding are likely along the Cape Fear River around downtown Wilmington and minor coastal flooding is possible at the beaches as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228270 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather returns today and Monday, followed by another warmup with well above normal temperatures returning for the middle to late part of the week. An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week before another cooldown by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Cooler with highs in the lower 70s for most. - Breezy with NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore. Early morning surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure occluding over Maine with a strong area of high pressure (~1027 mb) over the Great Lakes. While both of these features remain fairly far away, the pressure gradient between them is still tight enough to allow for gusty winds through the afternoon across the area. NW winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph across the Eastern Shore are expected. Additionally, with the well-mixed environment, RH values will fall to 20-25% inland and around 30% across the Eastern Shore). However, given yesterday`s rainfall (while generally light) and most trees having leaves at this point in the season, the fire weather concern appears below IFD threshold. Nevertheless, caution should be exercised and residents are reminded that the VA burn ban remains in effect until April 30th for any fires before 4 PM. Winds diminish quickly this evening as high pressure builds into the area with calm winds expected tonight. Otherwise, temps as of 250 AM ranged from the upper 40s to lower 50s NW to the upper 50s SE. Mostly sunny and cool conditions are expected today with highs in the lower 70s for most (upper 60s to around 70F across the Eastern Shore). Given the strong area of high pressure overhead tonight, calm winds, and clear skies, expect efficient radiational cooling overnight with lows likely ending up below model guidance. As such, have trended below NBM and leaned towards statistical guidance (MAV/MET) with lows in the low-mid 40s inland (most in the lower 40s) and upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast expected. Will note that some rural locations may drop into the upper 30s, however, temps should remain above frost headline criteria. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures and dry conditions are expected early this week. High pressure remains centered over the area on Mon before moving offshore Mon night into Tue. As such, clear skies and light/calm winds are expected Mon with partly cloudy skies Tue. Temps moderate both days with highs in the mid 70s for most Mon and low-mid 80s Tue. Lows moderate as well with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Mon night and low to mid 60s Tue night. Additionally, winds become SW and breezy Tue with gusts up to 20 mph inland and 20-25 mph across the Eastern Shore. Otherwise, dry conditions continue with min RH of ~25% inland and 30% along the coast Mon and 30-35% Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected from the middle to later part of the week with highs well above normal. - An unsettled pattern develops from mid to late week with scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Aloft, a tall ridge builds across the East Coast through late week with a shortwave trough moving from the central/southern Plains Wed to the Great Lakes Thu. This shortwave trough phases with a longwave trough dropping S from Canada Thu, eventually moving into the East Coast next weekend. As it does so, it forms an Omega Block as another trough/cutoff low moves into the West Coast while a ridge builds across the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains centered of the Southeast coast. This will allow for well above normal temps from mid to late week. Highs in the 80s (most in the upper 80s) Wed and Thu and mid 80s Fri are expected. Low pressure tracks well to the N of the local area (in Canada) Tue into Wed, pushing a cold front towards the local area Wed. Recent trends have been for the low to track farther N and for the front to stall near or N of the local area. As such temps have trended warmer for Thu. Scattered, mainly diurnal showers and storms are possible Wed and Thu afternoons/evenings. A strong cold front approaches the area Fri, allowing for another day of scattered showers and storms. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front for next weekend with highs back in the 70s by Sat. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... A cold front has moved S of the local area, pushing the showers S of the local area as well. Low clouds continue to thin across SE VA/NE NC as drier air moves in behind the front. However, scattered cloud cover (mainly cirrus but potentially some stratus across NE NC) remains across far S VA/NE NC and the Piedmont into later this morning. Scattered cloud cover may linger across S VA/NE NC through the afternoon, however, CIGs remain VFR. Winds have become NW/NNW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt behind the cold front. Winds become NW and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) later this morning into this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday and slides offshore Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by Wednesday and Thursday bringing a chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - NNW winds around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt will continue through mid morning before slowly diminishing today. - SCAs continue for all zones through at least late this afternoon. - Calmer conditions return tonight into the first half of the week. Deepening low pressure is tracking from northern New England toward Atlantic Canada early this morning and the cold front that crossed the waters last evening is now well to our south. As expected, N-NW winds are averaging ~25 kt with frequent 30-35 kt gusts. Occasional gusts to 40 knots have been noted at elevated terminals. These elevated N-NW winds are expected to continue through 7-9 AM before gradually diminishing during the day today. Wind speeds are expected to average 15 kt by early evening. SCAs remain in effect for all zones until 4 PM (7 PM for the bay N of New Pt Comfort). While there will be an additional weak push of CAA tonight, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds now aob 10%. Therefore, have kept the SCA end times as is. Light onshore flow is expected on Monday as high pressure builds overhead. The high moves offshore Mon night/Tue, allowing the winds become southerly and increase to 15 kt by Tue aftn. SCAs potentially return (mainly on the bay/Lower James) by Tuesday night/early Wednesday AM due to 15-20 kt SSW winds. While there is still some uncertainty at this time range, local wind probabilities for >18kt are 50-90% on the bay for a few hours Tue night/early Wed. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected from midday Wed through Thu. Waves and seas are 3-5 ft/4-6 ft at this hour and will remain elevated through much of the day today before dropping below SCA criteria this evening. Am generally expecting 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing to 3-4 ft/2-3 ft by Tue night/ Wednesday AM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228271 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 241 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Message: - Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues through Monday A mid-level ridge continues to build over South Texas today, causing morning clouds to give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Late tonight into Monday morning, a mid-level shortwave ahead of a closed low over Utah will move from eastern Mexico into South-Central Texas. This shortwave interacting with an above normal moisture axis along the Rio Grande has a low chance (20%) of advecting showers that form over eastern Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country of South Texas Monday morning. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected through Monday afternoon with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts as apparent temperatures extend into the 90s, approaching 100. Breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph are expected this afternoon and Monday afternoon (slightly stronger) due to a tightening pressure gradient from a surface low progressing east of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Our main hazard remains the increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to a moderate risk of rip currents through Monday. Although swell periods may drop to 5-6 seconds, onshore winds will be stronger. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Key Messages: - Low to medium (15-40%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week. - Above normal temperatures continue through the upcoming week. - Cold front with showers and thunderstorms Friday? Tuesday`s forecast looks dry but moisture is progged to increase through the day with increasing rain chances by Tuesday night across the western portions of S TX. This is in response to an approaching long wave trough with embedded short waves tracking east across the area. The trough is progged to track across S TX on Wednesday leading to a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the higher chances across the northern CWA. Models indicate an MCS tracking across Central TX with the tail end moving across S TX through the day Wednesday. There remains uncertainty as to how far south this line of storms will develop. If the upper disturbance is slightly farther north, then S TX may not see any rainfall. If it is farther South, then rain chances will increase. A short wave Thursday will bring a low 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will be limited, and the cap will be stronger on Thursday resulting in the lower rain chances. Rain chances are forecast to increase to 30-40% by Friday with a frontal boundary approaching S TX. The front is expected to be weakening as it moves toward S TX and may stall just north or across S TX during the day Friday. The frontal boundary will provide low level moisture convergence for convection to focus along, and PWATs are progged to increase to around 1.6-1.7 inches. There remains uncertainty due to differences in timing and where the front ultimately stalls, if it even makes it to S TX. If it does make it into S TX, temperatures will only be 2-4 degrees cooler. Low (10-20%) rain chances continue into the weekend with additional embedded short waves tracking across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 MVFR ceilings are expected to impact most sites from about 06/07z- 14/15z tonight with a low chance for fog at VCT dropping visibilities down to 1 SM. All sites should return to VFR conditions by 15/17z which is when the gusty winds are expected to return with gusts up to 28 knots. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop tomorrow evening about 04z. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze today will slightly strengthen to a dominantly fresh (BF 5) breeze Monday with seas 3 to 4 feet. A fresh (BF 5) onshore breeze can be expected Tuesday with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions by Tuesday night. Onshore winds decrease to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) on Wednesday, then moderate (BF 4) by Thursday. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday increasing to a 30% on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Winds and humidity levels are expected to stay below critical thresholds through the week. However, elevated fire weather conditions will be approached over western Webb County Monday afternoon as relative humidity drops to around 30 percent with 20 ft winds around 20 mph. Additional brief elevated fire thresholds may be approached across portions of the Rio Grande Plains as minimum afternoon relative humidity values drop below 30% and Energy Release Component (ERC) values trend above 70% across Southern Webb County. There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 87 71 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 96 72 97 72 / 0 20 20 10 Alice 91 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 74 84 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 96 71 97 72 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 88 72 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 74 81 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228269 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 328 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .DISCUSSION... High pressure aloft remains centered well west of the region this morning with the surface ridge axis extending across the southern part of the peninsula. This will keep warm and dry conditions across the region again today, with highs in the lower to mid 90s (mid to upper 80s at the coast). Similar to the past few days, a few of these highs will near records, especially for locations away from the coast. For Monday into Tuesday, a frontal boundary will move toward the region and eventually dissipate across northern Florida. Higher moisture associated with this boundary will move over the region Monday afternoon and Monday night, and this will help bring us some showers and a few thunderstorms. The best rain chances will be for the northern half of the forecast area and generally away from the immediate coast as the sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Rainfall amounts do not look overly exciting, however, and the high-end rainfall forecast is only up to about 0.5 inches, meaning there is a 90% chance that we see less than that. Rain chances linger Tuesday afternoon with the sea breeze, but moisture definitely decreases from Monday, so overall chances and amounts are lower. High pressure builds back in for the rest of the week, with warm and dry conditions returning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain over the region today, with east to southeast winds becoming onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon. For Monday into Tuesday, an approaching frontal boundary will bring some showers and a few thunderstorms, then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week. No headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure remains over the region today, with dry and warm conditions continuing. Relative humidity values will drop to the lower 30s for portions of the interior, though winds will remain below Red Flag criteria. Moisture will increase Monday and Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches the region and brings showers and a few thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 72 92 72 / 0 0 30 20 FMY 91 67 92 68 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 94 67 92 69 / 10 0 40 20 SRQ 88 69 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 94 62 93 65 / 0 10 40 20 SPG 88 72 88 72 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1228267 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 314 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes off the coast this morning. Behind this front, cooler high pressure builds in later today through tomorrow. By Tuesday, high pressure shifts offshore and will remain anchored there into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...A cold front is currently moving through ENC at this hour. Along it, some scattered convection has developed, and is expected to continue in some fashion all the way to the coast in the next couple of hours. Despite it being nighttime, good instability has developed ahead of this front, and with shear increasing as well, there could still be a strong to severe thunderstorm this morning...but this would be an isolated occurrence. Once the front and associated convection push offshore later this morning dry conditions are expected for the rest of the day as cooler and drier high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect lows to be mostly in the 50s by sunrise, and strong CAA through the day will limit heating despite mostly sunny skies, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s expected (highest across the southern NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sun...High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. The pressure gradient will relax some (especially early), and winds will become very light overnight if not decoupling entirely. As a result, great radiational cooling conditions are likely to develop, which will allow for temps to cool into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Monday into the weekend...Upper level ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and remain in place across the Southeast into the end of the workweek with a weak upper trough passing by well to the north around midweek. At the surface, high pressure ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and gradually push offshore by Tue morning with this ridge remaining centered offshore into the end of the week as well. As a result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with onshore flow on Monday becoming SW`rly by Tuesday allowing for a WAA regime to set up across Carolinas. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, with lows in the 50s. By Tuesday low level thicknesses increase under the WAA regime supporting highs in the 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX and coast. As we get into Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated surface cold front stalling in Virginia with previously mentioned surface high settling in across the Sargasso Sea. This will keep the area under a WAA regime increasing temps even further into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX. The stalled front to the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening, though latest trends in forecast and ensemble guidance has shown a noticeable drying trend. So while we currently have PoP`s in the forecast won`t be surprised if we end up precip free on Wed. Beyond mid week, upper ridging finally pushes offshore with the approach of an upper trough coming in from the north and west. At the surface this will spawn a surface low in the Plains which will track NE`wards with its associated cold front pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Fri and Sat bringing our next potential threat for some unsettled weather. Currently have high end Chc PoP`s in place Fri afternoon and wont be surprised given current trends if we see likely PoPs across the area within the next few days. Some of the AI and ML severe products are hinting at some potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop with this front as well so will have to monitor this potential as we get closer to the weekend. Temps remain slightly above avg into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 2 AM Sun...In the next couple of hours some sub-VFR conditions will be possible due to convection as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty winds and heavy downpours could also accompany the thunderstorms, and the best chances for seeing these conditions will be along and south of US 70, including KEWN, KISO, and KOAJ. Thereafter, cooler and drier air will move into the airspace with VFR conditions prevailing through early tomorrow morning. Gusty northerly winds to 15-25 mph are expected today, but otherwise skies will be mostly clear with only some high based cirrus around. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging builds overhead and gradually pushes offshore through midweek bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Sun...Small Craft conditions will continue this morning in the wake of a cold front, with strong northerly flow developing. Winds will surge to 25-30 kts with some gusts to Gale Force shortly this morning. Winds will then subside quickly later this morning to become N/NNW at 10-15 kts this afternoon. Northerly winds continue tonight at 10-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through tonight, but will briefly build to 4-6 ft later this morning. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sunday...High pressure will remain in control for the most part through the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions into about midweek or so. 10-15 kt NE`rly winds will be noted across our waters Monday morning with seas persisting at 3-5 ft along our coastal waters. Winds will ease down to 5-10 kts by Tue as high pressure builds overhead and pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to an E then SE then S`rly direction. Seas along our coastal waters will also lower down to 2-4 ft. On Wed with the approach of a cold front, winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts coming from the SW with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW`rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ135-156-158- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154. && $$ |
| #1228268 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 308 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area this morning. High pressure will prevail through much of this week. Another cold front could approach the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: A cold front approaching from the north will move across southern South Carolina over the next few hours and will be near the I-16 corridor as daybreak approaches. The frontal wind shift will then push south of the Altamaha River by late morning. The front will become increasingly more shallow the farther south it propagates and despite the northeast wind shift meandering into far southern Georgia later this morning and into the afternoon, the tightest moisture, instability and thermal gradients are forecast to remain across Southeast Georgia, most likely near the I-16 corridor. South of these gradients, there will be a risk for isolated to scattered showers/tstms as instability builds and convergence increases ahead of the sea breeze. In fact, convection could pop by early afternoon along the immediate Georgia coast with additional activity forming farther inland as the afternoon progresses. Pops range from near 0-5% north of the Savannah River to 20-30% south of I-16, highest over parts of Tattnal, Long, Liberty and McIntosh Counties. North of primary temperature/moisture gradients, a somewhat cooler and drier airmass will prevail with weak cold air advection noted. It will still remain warm, but it will feel a bit drier compared to the past several days. Highs will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s across Southeast South Carolina, mid-upper 80s across Southeast Georgia with a few spots likely topping out near 90. Cooler temperatures will persist at the beaches and near the immediate coast where breezy to windy conditions will be common in the pinched gradient that develops behind the front. Gusts could be as high as 30 mph at times at the beaches. The modified RAP sounding at KLHW shows weak to moderate instability (for late April) developing by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE running about 1500 J/kg and lifted indices running as low as -4C. There is about 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that develops during day, but with only weak-moderate instability expected, tstms will likely remain disorganized. DCAPE values do surge to a respectable 1000 J/kg with a considerable amount of mid-level dry air noted, but again, the marginal instability suggests the damaging wind potential is limited with the strongest storms likely producing winds no higher than 50 mph. Small hail could also occur within locally stronger updrafts. Tonight: A few showers could continue to percolate near the Altamaha River overnight as the remnants of the cold front meander nearby and interact with a piece of weak shortwave energy that is expected to pass through after midnight. Pops near 20% were maintained for much of the tonight period to account for this. Low clouds and possibly a little fog could also occur for counties nearest to the Altamaha River. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy outside of this area. Lows will range from the mid-upper 50s inland and north of I-16, upper 50s/lower 60s inland and south of I-16, lower-mid 60s across the coastal counties with upper 60s at the beaches. It will also remain a bit gusty at the beaches through the night, although winds will tend to lower through the early morning hours Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will continue to build in from the north on Monday as upper level ridging occurs. The leading edge of the front will be across far south GA. There could be just enough moisture and forcing along the Altamaha River to support isolated showers or tstms. Otherwise, relatively dry air will be spreading in from the north and temps will be near normal. A strong upper ridge will build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday while Atlantic high pressure strengthens. Dry and warm weather will ensue with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s inland on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift offshore on Thursday as a relatively progressive pattern develops late week. A cold front could sag into the area on Friday, bringing an increase in rain chances. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 27/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 06z Monday. A cold front will drop south through the terminals prior to daybreak. A few showers could develop near KSAV as the sea breeze gets a bit active early this afternoon, but the best coverage should remain to the south and southwest. No mention was included given the low probability of occurrence (~20%). Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today: A cold front will drop south through the waters this morning resulting in a steady northeast. The gradient is expected to tighten in the wake of the front as high pressure noses south. This will result in northeast winds around 20 kt with gusts as high as 25-30 kt becoming common. Models typically under forecast speeds in the pinched gradient northeast flow regimes, and the forecast has been modified to reflect this. Seas will build 3-5 ft by this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for all waters except the Charleston Harbor. For the Charleston Harbor, winds look to remain just shy of advisory levels, peaking 15-20 kt with waves 1-2 ft. Tonight: Winds will slowly weaken through the night as the gradient begins to relax. Winds could fall below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by midnight, although gusts could remain close to 25 kt through the night across both Georgia marine legs. Seas will hold 3-5 ft. Monday through Friday: A decent ENE gradient will persist into Monday as strong high pressure continues to build from the north. Winds are expected to remain just below advisory criteria, with diminishing speeds through the day. For the remainder of the forecast period, conditions will stay well below headline criteria. Rip Currents: A continued 2 ft, 9-10 second swell will persist today. Breezy to windy conditions will occur over the beaches as a pinched gradient develops with the passage of a cold front. These conditions will push the rip current risk into the high category for all beaches. Rip currents were reported at both Hilton Head and Tybee Island Saturday. Both the number and strength of the rip currents will likely increase today. A moderate risk is in place for all beaches Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Positive tidal departures are expected to build today as northeast winds increase in the wake of a passing cold front. Tide levels are expected to peak around 7.5 ft MLLW (moderate) in the Charleston Harbor and 9.7 ft MLLW (minor) at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties as confidence in reaching advisory thresholds is the highest this far out. The advisory may need to be expanded to include the remainder of the lower South Carolina and the middle-upper Georgia coast later today pending further refinements to the local Total Water Forecasts. The risk for at least minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides will persist into Tuesday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ354-374. && $$ |
| #1228264 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from late this afternoon into this evening. The air mass will be marginally moist today. Satellite-derived PW imagery shows an axis of 1.3-1.4 inch values stretching from near Destin to Albany. Weak to locally moderate convective instability is expected this afternoon. A cap of warm and dry mid-level air will get partially eroded by a weak upper disturbance passing southeast through Georgia late today, and deep-layer bulk shear will reach to near 20 knots as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Lastly, we will have low-level focus spreading inland with the Panhandle seabreeze, and with a back door cold front that will spread southwest across Georgia starting this afternoon. So a lot of marginal factors will get a boost from the upper dynamics and low- level focus. Individual storms will not be especially strong or prolonged, but any thunderstorm is capable of gusty winds and lightning. In advance of the back door cold front, it will be hot. Highs will rise well above 90F over inland portions of the FL Big Bend region. Remember those routine summer hot weather tips, such as staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, and planning outdoor work during the cooler morning and evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Northwesterly upper level flow lightens and becomes northerly as it gives way to an upper level ridge building in from the west late Monday into Tuesday. As this ridge builds, the longwave pattern becomes more amplified across the eastern third of the country and surface high pressure will fill in from the northeast as a backdoor frontal boundary moves in. When combined with diurnal heating and low-level moisture, we should see scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary. The best probabilities are across our south-central GA counties and FL Big Bend counties. Additional coverage is likely along seabreeze boundaries, especially the Apalachee Bay seabreeze in the southeast FL Big Bend. Additional coverage is possible on Tuesday, but as the background front becomes more ill defined and the upper level ridge axis moves overhead, expect lesser coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures will continue to remain well above normal, and in the upper 80s and around 90, but with the backdoor front moving in some areas across GA will at least see temperatures a little closer to normal in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Upper level ridge breaks down through the week as our next system approaches the southeast US while surface high pressure moves east into the western Atlantic at the start of the period. The axis of the surface high will be elongated westward so expect flow to become east and southeasterly through the long term and then southerly by Friday and the upcoming weekend as the pattern becomes a little more active. Increasing rain chances can be expected by Friday and potentially into the weekend depending on how the upper level pattern evolves. None of these next few systems appears to bring significant rainfall, but at this point we`ll welcome anything we can get given drought conditions encroaching on the region. High temperatures will remain above normal and in the upper 80s. Some 90 degree days are possible until rain chances increase with the passing of the late-week system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through sunrise, low cloud and perhaps some fog development is expected along and southwest of a DHN-TLH line, including ECP. Fog and low clouds will be shallow, and therefore quick to lift and scatter out starting 1-2 hours after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected for most of this afternoon. Then late this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, aided by the seabreeze front from the Gulf coast, and a back door cold front spreading southwest through Georgia. Have included lower confidence mentions of thunder until a couple hours after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A bubble of high pressure will reside over the far northeast Gulf through Monday afternoon, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze the main driver of wind. Fog is possible each morning over the protected waters of the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Stronger high pressure will move down the eastern seaboard into the western Atlantic toward Bermuda from Monday night through Wednesday, bringing a turn to easterly flow. Nocturnal increasing in easterly winds can be expected in this pattern, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights. Seas will remain around 1 to 3 feet through the next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Late afternoon and evening air mass thunderstorms will be the main concern today and again on Monday. Individual storms will be short- lived and not especially strong, but storms will nonetheless come with gusty winds and lightning. The two focus areas will be over the inland Panhandle because of the seabreeze, and over the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley, thanks to a back door cold front slipping in from the northeast. Areas of locally dense fog are expected over Panhandle and southeast Alabama districts early this morning, then again early Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Rain chances increase on Monday and later in the upcoming week, but at this time amounts will generally be under an inch and no significant riverine or hydrological concerns are expected. This rainfall will also likely not be enough to diminish the D0 - abnormally dry - conditions in place per the latest drought monitor. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 66 89 66 / 20 10 40 10 Panama City 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 89 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 10 Albany 90 66 85 65 / 30 40 40 10 Valdosta 92 67 87 66 / 30 40 60 10 Cross City 91 63 90 64 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228263 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 220 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy, cool, and blustery conditions today. High pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday. Dry and mild conditions continue Tuesday, but a cold front arrives mid week which will return temperatures to more seasonable conditions Thursday into Saturday. After a few showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning the next chance for widespread rain comes Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Cool and blustery. A mid level trough/cold pool settles overhead for the second half of the weekend with 500 mb temps around -23C. Expect a good amount of low/mid level clouds beneath this cyclonic flow with a decent 850 mb LLJ bringing breezy conditions to the region, gusting as high as 40- 45 mph in the higher terrain of the interior. However, the strongest core of the jet doesn`t move overhead until late evening/early overnight when BUFKIT soundings suggest the boundary layer decouples which should keep any widespread potentially damaging wind gusts aloft. In the cooler post frontal airmass with little sun, high temperatures only make it into the 50s. Overnight clear skies return with high pressure moving overhead. The encroaching low/mid level ridge brings a milder airmass as well; lows bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key messages... * Warmer and less windy. Dry weather. High pressure ridging moves overhead. This both shuts down the wind and pumps up the temperatures. The center of the high moves just south of SNE on Monday and low level winds begin to back to the S; plenty of sun and low level WAA allow high temps to reach into the mid 70s on Monday making for a pleasant late April day, quite a bit warmer than average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry conditions Tuesday. Few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. * Near seasonable temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. While Thursday is dry, rain chances return for Friday into Saturday. Monday Night through Wednesday: Monday night there is the potential for cooler temperatures because of radiational cooling, did blend in the cooler CONSMOS guidance which gave lows are in the upper 30s to low 40s across interior southern and known areas that radiate well along the I-495 corridor and Martha`s Vineyard, elsewhere middle and upper 40s. The axis of the ridge shifts east Tuesday evening and a northern stream trough and cold front approaches from the west. Will have warm temperatures Tuesday from the middle to upper 70s, while at the coast still cooler in the 60s. SW flow on Tuesday ushers in higher PWATs, ahead of an approaching mid-level trough and surface cold front. While a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are possible, it looks the best forcing with the cold front comes too late as the best moisture exits east of New England before the cold front arrives. The timing of the cold front will dictate the high temperatures for Wednesday, thinking it could be a slow moving front, which may allow the coast plain to warm up nicely into the low and middle 70s, while those interior locations only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Cold front moves across the region and brings a shot of colder air across all of southern New England, widespread upper 30s to low 40s. Thursday through Saturday: Drier Thursday and seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s as weak high pressure briefly in control. But is quickly followed by unsettled weather and the return of rain on Friday and potentially into next Saturday with the passage of low pressure system to our northwest. Temperatures Friday and Saturday are in the upper 60s to near 70F. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z: High confidence. Cold front has pushed through the region. Improvement to SCT-BKN VFR, though some MVFR bases may redevelop overnight in western area airports. Winds become W/WNW around 10-15 kt with gusts 25 kt (up to 30 kt across the high terrain). Sunday through Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Gusts to 30-35 kt possible across the region during the afternoon/evening hours, dropping off overnight. Monday: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts less than 15 knts before 18z. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in lower ceilings Sunday. VFR. Gusty winds continue through tonight and Sunday with the cold frontal passage. BKN 030-050 stratocumulus develop Sunday. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in lower ceilings Sunday. VFR. Gusty winds continue through tonight and Sunday with the cold frontal passage. BKN 030-050 stratocumulus develop Sunday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kts with seas of 3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through tonight across the eastern waters into Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay, with wind gusts to 25 kt and higher possible. Seas tonight ranging from 4-6 ft. Monday high pressure moves overhead and both winds and seas decrease. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232-250- 254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256. && $$ |
| #1228262 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 216 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Today: Models still on track to bring back door frontal boundary from the North into the region this afternoon and the first shot at scattered rainfall chances in the last 2 weeks to the local area. Prior to the arrival of the frontal boundary late this afternoon expect much above normal temps under mostly sunny skies to reach near record levels in the 90-95F range across inland NE FL and around 90F across SE GA, while highs reach into the mid/upper 80s at the Atlantic Beaches due to a delayed onset of the East Coast sea breeze. Overall rainfall chances will be in the 30-50% range across SE GA and 15-25% range across NE FL as the East Coast sea breeze will push inland and interact with the southward moving back door frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening with the main deterrent to convection the lingering dry airmass aloft across the region. A few strong storms will be possible during the frontal/sea breeze interaction with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours in some locations, mainly across SE GA through sunset. Breezy East to Northeast winds will increase to 15-20G25 mph along Atlantic Coastal areas behind the frontal boundary through the afternoon and evening hours, with strongest winds along the SE GA coastal areas. Tonight: The frontal boundary will settle close to the FL/GA border or I-10 corridor by the overnight hours as high pressure builds north of the region over the Carolinas. The continued convergence along this boundary from the increased and breezy E-NE winds at times will continue scattered showers and isolated storms at times near this boundary, with best chances across the Atlantic Waters, but still potential over the land based areas through the overnight hours. Mild temps will continue with low temps only falling into the 60s area-wide and near 70F along the Atlantic Coast. A few strong storms will continue to possible over the land based areas through the evening hours, but will continue through the night closer to the Atlantic Coast where the best low level convergence exists and depending on how slow the boundary movement becomes, there will be some potential for some very localized heavier rainfall amounts if some showers/storms can train across the same areas near the Atlantic Coast and along the I-95 corridor. Overall most of the rainfall will be very welcome to many locations that have not seen measurable rain in over 2 weeks. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Stalled frontal boundary draped across SE GA on Monday will gradually shift southward and dissipate by Tuesday as high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast continuing breezy ENE flow. Higher moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.8 in.) and a passing shortwave aloft will help support isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes and the weakening frontal boundary area-wide. Breezy easterly winds will shift the Atlantic sea breeze well inland with the sea breeze merger likely along and west of the I-75 corridor. This will be the best chance for storms and where coverage could become numerous. Pockets of 0.25-0.5" of rain will be possible in stronger storms mainly along and west of I-75. On Tuesday, some lingering moisture will support a few showers developing along the sea breezes as they shift inland Tuesday afternoon. In the easterly flow, high temperatures will have an east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging from upper 70s along the coast to the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The region remains on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure off the southeastern seaboard. This will bring a return of warmer, drier weather to the region for mid-week. High pressure retreats as a cold front enters the SE US Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall returns to SE GA as moisture increases ahead of the approaching front. The front will be along the FL/GA state border Saturday morning and continue its trek southward into central FL Saturday night. Diurnal instability, sea breeze interactions, and left over convergence north of the front will result in isolated to scatter showers/storms on Saturday. Temperatures return to above seasonable for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR with just a FEW to SCT mid and high clouds this morning prior to the frontal passage later today, except for the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame. Models still on track for back door frontal passage this afternoon to reach SSI by 17Z, then JAX/CRG/VQQ by 19-20Z time frame and while rainfall chances will be possible with this feature, they are generally less than 30% so will continue with just VCSH until guidance becomes more clear to add any PROB30 groups or potential for any TSRA activity. Further south at GNV/VQQ expect airmass to remain too dry for any shower activity, although sea breeze will push inland through SGJ by the 17-18Z time frame and then some isolated shower (VCSH) will be possible later tonight in the onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Short range models in good agreement for back door frontal boundary to push southward into the local waters this afternoon and stall near the FL/GA border tonight. This will send a surge of East to Northeast winds into the local waters, likely at SCEC levels in the 15-20 knot range across SE GA waters, and around 15 knots for the NE FL waters. This will also be accompanied by increasing chances of shower and thunderstorm activity through tonight. High pressure will build into the Carolinas on Monday and push the weakening frontal boundary south of the local waters with continued East winds likely at SCEC (15-20 knot) levels along with continued threat of scattered showers and storms. High pressure ridge axis settles over the local waters from Tuesday through Thursday with a return to a general Southeast flow at 10-15 knots. South to Southwest flow will develop on Friday ahead of approaching frontal boundary, which is expected to push through the local waters by early Saturday, but this frontal boundary is expected to be on the weaker side, so headlines are not expected at this time. Rip Currents: Slight increase in swells this morning along with expected increase in Northeast to East winds with frontal passage today will nudge Rip Current Risk to high today and Monday as surf/breakers will continue in the 2-4 ft range, along with elevated crowd levels at the NE FL/SE GA beaches today due to the above normal temps into the mid/upper 80s. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today will be the last hot day with inland min RHs in the 30s. A cold front will drop down into southeast Georgia by this afternoon and stall over the area until Monday. Winds shift to north- northwesterly today and then breezy northeasterly winds develop as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland this afternoon into evening. Low- level moisture gradually increases helping to support an isolated shower along the sea breezes and widely scattered showers/storms along the front in southeast Georgia. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases on Monday. Best chance will be along and west of the I-75 corridor where the sea breezes likely merge. Good inland dispersions and fair coastal dispersions prevail today and Monday. Good dispersions prevail area-wide on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SUN 4/27 JAX 94 (1986) GNV 96 (2011) AMG96 (1986) CRG93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 63 81 61 / 50 30 20 10 SSI 82 69 77 69 / 20 40 30 10 JAX 91 67 80 64 / 20 30 30 10 SGJ 88 69 80 67 / 10 40 30 10 GNV 94 66 87 64 / 20 20 60 20 OCF 95 65 89 65 / 20 20 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228260 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Daily scattered showers and storms also develop Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 135 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Winds remain breezy through tonight behind a cold front. A cold front was located S of the local area with showers now S of the local area as well. Breezy NNW winds continue behind the front through tonight with gusts to 20-25 mph along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Winds remain elevated inland, but with less frequent gusts. Temps as of 130 AM ranged from the lower 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. Temps drop into this morning as cooler, drier air moves in behind the front. Morning lows in the mid 40s N to lower 50s S are expected. Clouds decrease in coverage overnight, however, partly cloudy skies may continue across far S VA/NE NC and across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry Sunday through Tuesday with a warming trend beginning Monday. Dry and pleasant wx is expected Sunday through Tuesday, with below- normal temperatures initially, followed by a substantial warming trend toward midweek. Behind the cold front passage tonight, high pressure becomes centered over the Great Lakes and upper OH Valley Sunday as the upper trough axis shifts offshore and the flow aloft turns NW. Sunny skies Sunday with highs in the lower 70s W of the Chesapeake Bay and upper 60s on the Eastern Shore. Forecast lows Sunday night are in the mid 40s for most, except 50s at the immediate coast and on the VA Eastern Shore. However, should note that rather ideal radiational cooling conditions are likely to be present Sunday night with the high building over the area and temps could drop to around 40 F in some locations, which is closer to the statistical guidance. Not expecting any frost at this time, but will keep an eye on this. The high then moves over the area Monday and shifts offshore to our SE Tuesday. Thus, temperatures rebound into the mid 70s Monday with lows also a few degrees milder in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the low-mid 80s are then forecast Tuesday as the flow turns to the SW. Some increase in cloud cover is possible across the NW later Tuesday as a cold front initiates deep convection over the OH Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warm weather is expected next week with highs well above normal most days. - Scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible Wednesday through Friday. Ridging persists across the eastern CONUS through the middle of the week, with temperatures becoming increasingly warm. Above-normal highs in the mid-upper 80s are expected Wednesday through Friday. A cold front approaches the area Wednesday, but there is uncertainty on if it moves through or rather stays just N of the area. Either way, it should push well to the N Thursday before finally pushing through Friday. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons/evenings with the front nearby, though only modest height falls suggest the coverage may be on the lower side. An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Friday underneath a large trough, providing focus for additional thunderstorms. This activity could be more organized given strengthening flow aloft ahead of the trough. Cooling/drying off behind the cold front next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... A cold front has moved S of the local area, pushing the showers S of the local area as well. Low clouds continue to thin across SE VA/NE NC as drier air moves in behind the front. However, scattered cloud cover (mainly cirrus but potentially some stratus across NE NC) remains across far S VA/NE NC and the Piedmont into later this morning. Scattered cloud cover may linger across S VA/NE NC through the afternoon, however, CIGs remain VFR. Winds have become NW/NNW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt behind the cold front. Winds become NW and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY) later this morning into this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the area with light/calm winds expected overnight tonight under clear skies. Outlook: High pressure builds across the region Monday and slides offshore Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with a breezy SW wind developing Tuesday as the high moves offshore. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by Wednesday and Thursday bringing a chance of showers and storms. && .MARINE... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are ongoing across most of the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms into this evening could necessitate SMWs. - Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt from N to S starting late this evening, continuing through tonight into early Sunday behind the cold front. - SCAs are already in effect for most zones, and will go into effect for remaining zones starting this evening and continuing through Sunday. - Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of next week. Deepening low pressure is currently moving into northern New England, with the trailing cold front now along the spine Appalachians, and forecast to push east of the mountains shortly. Elevated SW winds have prevailed since this morning, and despite an expected lull right out ahead of the cold front early this evening, have put all zones but the Rappahannock River and the coastal waters S of Parramore Island in effect given frequent gusts to around 25 kt this aftn. SCAs run through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for the post- frontal winds starting tonight. Tstms are possible into the evening along and just ahead of the front, which could necessitate SMWs. The front is forecast to see pressure rises on the order of 7-9mb/6 hr later this evening, along with strong CAA for late April with 925mb temps dropping to around 2C north and ~6C south. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between about midnight and 7 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low- end gale gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance has remained relatively consistent over the past 24-36 hours with the latest 12z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/HRRR/NAMNest) suggesting solid SCA conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts are in the 20-30% range north and 10% or less S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping to ~15 kt by late aftn. While there will be an additional weak push of CAA Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs past 4-7 PM Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tue as high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high at this time range. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 2-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5 ft N prevail into the evening, building to 4-6 ft by late tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay. Waves/seas remain around SCA criteria on Sunday before dropping below criteria Sunday evening. Generally expected 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing into Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1228261 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 153 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will build in behind the front into early next week with dry conditions. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late in the week ahead of the next front. && .UPDATE... Main changes were to adjust for the timing of the incoming cold front. Expect breezy north winds to arrive behind the front. See updated TAF discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A little surprised nothing of note has developed across the area this afternoon. Admittedly the timing was a little early and there was a lot of cloud across much of the area this morning, but with a surface trough/shortwave combo (albeit both on the weak side) and SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg expected to see more than isolated light showers pop up. The lack of activity this afternoon suggest the PVA ahead of the shortwave is not very strong, meaning the post wave subsidence should also be weak. Skies are slowly clearing to the west which will allow a little more heating this afternoon and, coupled with the lack of convection along the coast, this could lead to a large area of SBCAPE > 1k J/kg well into the evening. So a lack of convection today could lead to an excess of convection tonight... Expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening as the front moves in from the west-northwest later tonight. The exiting shortwave/trough does complicate things a bit as what subsidence exists behind the feature will need to move off before the front and its convection arrives. Given the weak nature of the shortwave this may not be an issue. Plenty of moisture lingers into the evening with precipitable water still above the 90th percentile until the front pushes south of the area late tonight. Front arrives late, with surface based instability trending down however, MLCAPE continues to increase ahead of the front, peaking between 1500-2000 J/kg. Warm, moist flow between 900-800mb is helping drive the increase in MLCAPE which will support a line of storms ahead of the front. Not much in the way a of a strong low level jet, maybe 30kt, which should limit storm strength. Anticipate the broken line will maintain itself across the entire forecast area, generally moving from northwest to southeast, and then offshore after midnight. The environment across the forecast area is more or less the same above the boundary layer, although areas closer to the coast will see an increase in surface based stability. This should keep storms going with only a slight decrease in strength as the storms move closer to the coast. Once offshore the line should become better defined with cells strengthening farther offshore. Much drier air mass moves in behind the front which is followed by a rapid shift to northerly winds. Cold advection sets up, knocking temps down a bit, but combination of late start and good mixing will keep lows above normal, although 5-7 degrees cooler than the last few nights. Surface high builds in from the north Sun with the region in between the 5h trough offshore and the 5h ridge expanding north from southern TX. Deep north to northwest flow drops pwats under 0.5" by midday with the only potential for cloud cover being a few patches of high cloud moving in from the northwest. Highs Sun will end up near to slightly below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Quiet with cool nights in the short term period as surface high ridges down from the north through early Monday before shifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast as mid level ridging builds over the Southeast. Mostly clear skies and light winds Sunday night will drop temps to around 50F, likely well down into the 40s in cold spots, though some clouds associated with PVA may impact how low temps get by Monday morning. Highs Monday will be near normal (upper 70s-80F) with plenty of sunshine. Below normal temps expected again Monday night in the low 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level ridge remains strong over the Southeast through at least Wednesday, likely maintaining influence through Thursday. Low level south-southwesterly flow (around offshore high) and increasing 850 temps will lead to above normal temps Tuesday through Thursday, potentially reaching 90F inland Wed and Thurs. A front stalls well to the north across the Mid Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday courtesy of stubborn ridge. Have maintained 20-30% pops across inland areas Thursday afternoon, where subsidence may be a bit weaker. Better rain chances are forecasted for Friday as subsidence inversion disappears and instability develops. A shortwave and associated PVA looks to move across the area sometime Friday (rounding the base of a larger trough over the Great Lakes), but strength and timing of this shortwave is uncertain which will play a role in coverage and timing of Friday precipitation. The next FROPA is progged for late Friday with high pressure building in behind it. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is dropping southward and will cross through the terminals over the next few hours. A low risk for brief MVFR cigs exists, but upstream observations suggest this is too low to mention in the TAFs. The same can be said about the risk for rain, as it appears the sole line of thunderstorms will pass well to the east of the NC terminals. While a brief shower cannot be ruled out as the front passes through, the risk is also too low to mention and would be very short-lived. Thus, beyond any brief restrictions with the frontal passage, expect VFR through the remainder of the period. Gusty north winds will affect the terminals late tonight as cold advection peaks, but gusts will gradually subside through the morning. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR. MVFR/IFR with both visibility and ceilings possible Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Enhancement of southwest flow this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front tonight will push speeds to 15-20 kt. Front will be accompanied by a wind shift to northwest after midnight. Limited surge tonight with the front and speeds not expected to climb much above 15 kt. Gradient becomes more defined on Sun as the high starts to really build in and the winds veer to northeast. Wouldn`t rule out a surge to around 20 kt later Sun morning but then speeds should start decreasing. Seas 3-4 ft through the frontal passage may dip down to 3 ft before bouncing back up to 3-4 ft for much of Sun after the northeast surge arrives. Seas will be a mix of a southerly wind wave and a southeast swell into Sun but then seas will become very chaotic as a northerly wind wave quickly becomes dominant but the southerly wind wave and the southeast swell persist. Sunday Night through Thursday...Benign marine conditions expected through Thursday. High pressure ridges down from the north Sunday north through early Monday before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast, with NE winds across the local coastal waters through midday Monday before veering to relatively light onshore flow. Seas 2-3 ft Sunday night through Tuesday, primarily from E swell with wind wave mixed in. With high pressure offshore, south-southwesterly flow dominates from late Tuesday through Friday, sustained around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts Wednesday and Thursday. Seas linger around 2-3 ft Tuesday through Thursday, combination of persisting E swell and slowly building S wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding expected this evening during high tide along the lower Cape Fear River. Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding are possible here and along the coast during the evening high tides through early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1228259 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Showers across extreme SE Alabama are expected to come to an end within the next hour or so. The forecast is currently on track and doesn`t require any updates this evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 As the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon, a few isolated showers, maybe a thunderstorm, could develop, mainly near and north of I-10 in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. These will be rather few and far between with rain chances generally around 20%. Any storms that develop this afternoon will quickly fade after sunset. Another round of fog is likely tonight, especially over southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Some locally dense fog cannot be ruled out. Lows will be in the 60s. A weak shortwave trough pushes into the area on Sunday, sending a weak cold front our way, which will interact with the sea breeze to some extent to provide a little extra convergence. We`ll have a little bit more moisture to work with as PWATs climb to 1.3 to 1.5 inches. Still not an overly impressive amount of moisture, but we may have a few more showers and storms scattered about the area Sunday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not that impressive (around 15 kt or so), but there will be plenty of instability and a bit of mid- level dry air. So, there is the chance for a couple storms to produce gusty winds. Outside of storms, it will be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s. Thankfully, we`re not dealing with summertime humidity, but given it`s an early heat spell, please use caution if outdoors tomorrow. Stay in the shade and stay hydrated. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Above average temperatures and humid weather continues over the next several days, with the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and again Friday into Saturday, as frontal boundaries act to enhance lift. Lingering showers into Sunday night with a rumble of thunder early, mainly north of I-10, with the passage of a backdoor front. Also, fog is possible Monday morning, mainly in the Eastern FL Panhandle. The backdoor front stalls over the region on Monday, which interacts with the gulf/east coast sea breeze boundaries, along with some easterly speed convergence noted along the periphery of the low to mid-level ridge. However, the lift may be tempered by subsidence from the ridge, and PWATs struggle to rise above 1.0 inch, while instability is meager. Our forecast emphasizes the east coast sea breeze, with PoPs increasing from 20% west to 50% east during the afternoon and evening, but thunder chances may be limited. From Tuesday through Thursday, a shower or thunderstorm is possible each afternoon and evening, but overall PoPs are low. A cold front approaches on Friday and leads to a chance of showers and thunder- storms into Saturday. Gusty winds and lightning are the main concerns with any storms given outdoor events both days. Highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day away from the gulf coast, with dew points in the mid-60s (overnight lows), which will make for very warm and humid conditions for late April. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Through sunrise, low cloud and perhaps some fog development is expected along and southwest of a DHN-TLH line, including ECP. Fog and low clouds will be shallow, and therefore quick to lift and scatter out starting 1-2 hours after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected for most of this afternoon. Then late this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, aided by the seabreeze front from the Gulf coast, and a back door cold front spreading southwest through Georgia. Have included lower confidence mentions of thunder until a couple hours after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A bubble of high pressure will reside over the far northeast Gulf through Monday afternoon, making the nearshore afternoon seabreeze the main driver of wind. Fog is possible each morning over the protected waters of the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Stronger high pressure will move from the Delmarva region toward Bermuda from Monday night through Wednesday, bringing a turn to easterly flow. Moderate to possibly fresh nocturnal surges are expected, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Isolated showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon generally away from the coast. Better coverage of showers and storms is expected Monday across south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Isolated storms are still possible Tuesday. Within these storms, dangerous lightning and gusty, erratic winds are possible hazards. Otherwise, good dispersions are expected over the next few days given generally light transport winds and high mixing heights. The daily sea breeze circulation will cause winds to become more southerly during the afternoon hours, especially in the Florida zones. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 No flooding is expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 66 89 66 / 20 10 40 10 Panama City 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 89 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 10 Albany 90 66 85 65 / 30 40 40 10 Valdosta 92 67 87 66 / 30 40 60 10 Cross City 91 63 90 64 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228257 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 132 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 South Florida remains situated between a dipole of surface ridging today, with a ridge axis present in the Gulf in conjunction with a separate foci in the western Atlantic. Not much more exciting when look aloft as there is a dearth of synoptic forcing across the region with quite the stagnant vertical column in place. 05z ACARS data as well as future forecast model soundings show the continuance of a stout mid-level subsidence inversion that will continue to stifle any real rain chances (outside of a few shallow-layer stray isolated showers advecting into the east coast metro areas via easterly flow). A few pockets of patchy fog will be possible through daybreak this morning across southwestern Florida as a nocturnal inversion combined with a moist low-level boundary layer may set the stage for saturation. Given the lack of any synoptic influence aloft, the mesoscale will dictate the weather regime once again today with winds veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out an isolated shower this afternoon along the gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida but overall rain chances remain lackluster. The amplification of a deep-layer ridge across the southeastern United States on Monday will result in the prorogation of a backdoor frontal boundary propagating southwestward across the Florida Peninsula occurring in tandem with a weak upper level shortwave ridge- riding. With the weak boundary on our doorstep, periphery moisture associated with the frontal boundary in tandem with diurnal heating and convergence (localized ascent along the gulf breeze boundary) could set the stage for a few isolated showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida. There will still be considerable amounts of low-level dry air to contend with but if an updraft is able to sustain long enough, forecast model soundings from CAMS such as the HRRR, RAFS, and RAP show enough marginal instability to get a thunderstorm going across inland southwestern Florida. Given how dry the vegetation has become across our area and the isolated nature of any rainfall, any lightning strike could potentially spark new wildfires. High temperatures will be similar this afternoon and once again on Monday, the warmest temperatures are forecast for inland southwestern Florida with widespread high temperatures in the low 90s. Along both the immediate gulf coast as well as the majority of the east coast metro, temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A rinse and repeat weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the work week into the weekend as easterly flow continues and we remain mostly dry. Deep-layer ridging will remain established across the western Atlantic waters through the end of the week with light synoptic flow aloft. Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep rainfall to a minimum. Outside of a few shallow-level stray showers, the stretch of dry and warmth will continue with drought conditions continuing to worsen. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Light easterly winds around 5 kts early this morning becoming E/SE 10-15 kts after 16Z, with a westerly Gulf breeze developing at APF this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Easterly winds are expected to remain for the remainder of the second half of the weekend across our local Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. && .BEACHES... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A high risk of rip currents will prevail at Palm Beach county beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents remaining across Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. As easterly flow remains with us for the foreseeable future, the elevated rip current will persist along the east coast for the remainder of much of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Although winds will remain light across the region this afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just below critical levels (low to mid 30s) across inland southwestern Florida. This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 73 84 74 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 87 70 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 84 73 84 72 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 73 82 73 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 72 83 73 / 0 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 88 75 87 74 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 84 71 84 72 / 0 0 10 10 Boca Raton 85 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 86 70 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228258 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 137 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes off the coast this morning. Behind this front, cooler high pressure builds in later today through tomorrow. By Tuesday, high pressure shifts offshore and will remain anchored there into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Sun...A cold front is currently moving through ENC at this hour. Along it, some scattered convection has developed, and is expected to continue in some fashion all the way to the coast in the next couple of hours. Despite it being nighttime, good instability has developed ahead of this front, and with shear increasing as well, there could still be a strong to severe thunderstorm this morning...but this would be an isolated occurrence. Once the front and associated convection push offshore later this morning dry conditions are expected for the rest of the day as cooler and drier high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect lows to be mostly in the 50s by sunrise, and strong CAA through the day will limit heating despite mostly sunny skies, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s expected (highest across the southern NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sun...High pressure will continue to ridge in from the north tonight, with mostly clear skies expected. The pressure gradient will relax some (especially early), and winds will become very light overnight if not decoupling entirely. As a result, great radiational cooling conditions are likely to develop, which will allow for temps to cool into the mid to upper 40s inland, and the 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday... Monday through the end of the week...Both upper and surface ridging will move over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday and gradually push E`wards through the week. This will generally keep things dry for the most part though about midweek, though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. We do begin to get into a slightly more unsettled pattern from about midweek and beyond. A weak cold front approaches ENC from the north on Wed as an upper trough passes by to the north. As this occurs, PoP`s will be on the increase especially along our northern zones which could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity to the area Wed afternoon and evening, and again Thurs afternoon and evening. Next significant front looks to impact the area this weekend, potentially as early as Friday as a deeper upper trough pushes across the region. This will once again bring a threat for showers and storms to the area. Temps from Monday onwards will steadily increase giving ENC more of a summer time feel by midweek. Highs start out in the low to mid 70s inland and 60s across the OBX on Mon and then increase to the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX by midweek and beyond. Lows will also be on the increase getting into the 60s across ENC by midweek as well. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Morning/... As of 2 AM Sun...In the next couple of hours some sub-VFR conditions will be possible due to convection as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty winds and heavy downpours could also accompany the thunderstorms, and the best chances for seeing these conditions will be along and south of US 70, including KEWN, KISO, and KOAJ. Thereafter, cooler and drier air will move into the airspace with VFR conditions prevailing through early tomorrow morning. Gusty northerly winds to 15-25 mph are expected today, but otherwise skies will be mostly clear with only some high based cirrus around. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... High pressure builds in behind the departing front Sunday eventually pushing offshore by Wednesday allowing for primarily VFR conditions across ENC into midweek. Could see some sub-VFR conditions Wed afternoon and evening as a weak front approaches from the north and increases precip chances. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Sun...Small Craft conditions will continue this morning in the wake of a cold front, with strong northerly flow developing. Winds will surge to 25-30 kts with some gusts to Gale Force shortly this morning. Winds will then subside quickly later this morning to become N/NNW at 10-15 kts this afternoon. Northerly winds continue tonight at 10-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through tonight, but will briefly build to 4-6 ft later this morning. LONG TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday... With high pressure in control of the weather through about midweek, expect benign boating conditions with 5-10 kt N`rly winds gradually shifting to an east, southeast, and then southerly direction by Tue evening. Seas will lower as well down to 2-4 ft by Tue. On Wed with the approach of a cold front winds may briefly increase closer to 10-20 kts with seas remaining around 2-4 ft. There will also be an increase in precip chances on Wed afternoon and evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ135-156-158- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154. && $$ |
| #1228256 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 On the western flank of a ~1020 mb sfc high pressure system and 588 mb ridge, dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through the short term forecast period or through Sunday night. Southerly winds will aid in a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s and daytime highs in the upper 80s along the coastal areas to the low- mid 90s along and west of IH-69E. Moderate winds and elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A mid-level ridge axis will lie over the Mississippi Valley region initially, will slowly move, with a strong east coast high pressure ridge extending back toward and over the Northwest Gulf of America. Interaction between high pressure and upstream lower pressure will support a tighter gradient and stronger synoptic scale winds for the first part of the forecast. Confidence in the development of wind or fire hazards is low right now, but bears watching. As downstream mid-level ridging slides slowly east, the upstream pattern will become slightly more progressive, supporting a higher frequency mid-level wave train to transit across the Southern Plains. Despite the evolving pattern, the West Texas dry line will persist. As one short wave moves through North Texas late Wednesday, southward extending lift could trigger convection to the West or Southwest of the CWA, over the Sierra Madre Oriental front range. A cold front will move in behind the exiting mid-level trough on Thursday, allowing the surface boundary to potentially trigger localized convection over the CWA. A weak ridge will build over the area, however, possibly limiting deeper lift. The front will stall out in the vicinity to end the week with non-zero but likely limited convection Friday into Saturday. As mid-level flow begins to back again the southwest due to upstream height falls associated with the next upper trough, a more southern branch of energy will graze North Central Mexico and provide lift for front range convection Saturday night and more clearly next Sunday night. The signal for lower valley thunderstorms Sunday night is slightly elevated (30-40%). Temperatures will be slightly warmer (by a few to several degrees) than average through the forecast. Heat index values could get to the century mark in the afternoon, but not looking for an excessive heat risk threat. Rip current risk will generally be at least moderate through the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies with a few passing low clouds. Will include a TEMPO group for the brief MVFR ceilings. Low clouds are expected to increase and spread across Deep South Texas overnight leading to MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings will return later this morning as southeast winds increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease to 10 to 15 knots later this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Moderate winds will generate moderate seas through the short term period or through Sunday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions can`t be entirely ruled out, particularly due to the winds. Monday through Thursday night...Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas will prevail from Monday through Wednesday. Small craft will likely need to exercise caution, and brief, low end small craft advisory conditions could develop offshore due to higher seas. Winds will relax slightly, to moderate, on Thursday, with lower seas; however, convective chances will increase to at least isolated (20%). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 87 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 72 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 80 74 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228255 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today - Turning hot this weekend with near record highs for some interior locations with further drying fuels. There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior Sunday afternoon and early evening - Limited chance of showers (20-50%) Monday along with a risk for occasional lightning strikes && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 High pressure axis remains over the local area, resulting in mostly dry conditions across east central Florida this evening. Local observations show temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with E/ESE winds around 10 mph. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with a few upper level clouds streaming overhead. Dry conditions will prevail with no mentionable rain chances through the overnight hours. Easterly winds will dominate tonight, with speeds less than 10 mph as the pressure gradient loosens over the local area. Temperatures will be seasonable with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Forecast remains on track with no major adjustments. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Currently-Sunday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida except for scattered sprinkles over the east central Florida Atlantic waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds are from the east-southeast at around 8-12mph with gusts to 20mph. High pressure (~1020mb) is centered over the western Atlantic to the northeast of Bermuda and high pressure (~1020mb) is also over the southeastern US. Dry weather is expected to continue this tonight with light and variable winds. There is a low chance (20%) for patchy fog with visibility reductions to 1 mile or less over northern Lake, northern Volusia, the Treasure Coast counties and Okeechobee county mainly between 3am to 9am. Low temperatures in the 60s are forecast with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop into late Sunday afternoon and evening (4PM to 11PM) mainly to the north of I-4 as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Generally, east winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon at 8-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph with the highest winds to the east of the Orlando metro and lighter winds to the west. Above normal to near record highs are forecast with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and in the upper 80s to mid 90s inland to the west of I-95. There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida Sunday afternoon and early evening. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially without effective cooling or adequate hydration. Monday-Tuesday... A weak "cool" front is forecast to gradually move south over northern Florida and the east central Florida Atlantic waters late Sunday night into Monday. Isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~ 20-40%) and lightning storms are forecast to develop over Volusia county and northern Brevard county into Monday morning before rain chances (PoPs ~20-50%) increase to the southwest over east central Florida into the afternoon and evening on Monday as east-southeast winds converge with the west coast sea breeze over the western interior of central Florida. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. High pressure (~1024mb) is expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic behind the aforementioned "cool" front on Tuesday. Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast on Tuesday with onshore flow in place and PWATs in the 1.20-1.50" range. East winds are expected to increase into each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the west of I-95 on Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s forecast. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast. Wednesday-Friday... Drier air (PWATs ~0.70-1.10" Wednesday to Thursday afternoon) is forecast mid week as a mid/upper level ridge builds over the southeastern US and the state of Florida Wednesday into Thursday before building over the western Atlantic into Thursday afternoon. Rain chances (PoPs ~20%) return on Friday as the ridge weakens/shifts east and moisture increases with PWAT values in the 1.30-1.60" range. Isolated showers (PoPs ~ 20%) are forecast Friday afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze over central Florida. Generally, east-southeast winds are expected to increase into each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph through Thursday.Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the west of I-95 Wednesday and Thursday with the mid 80s to low 90s forecast on Friday. Lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are forecast near the coast with the upper 50s to mid 60s west of I-95. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Currently-Sunday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with mostly dry weather. High pressure is expected to weaken and shift south on Sunday before a "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east- southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters Sunday night and into the day on Monday. generally, east- southeast winds at 6-14kts are forecast with seas to 2-4ft. Monday-Wednesday... The previously mentioned "cool" front is expected to gradually move south over the waters before high pressure (~1024mb) quickly builds over the western Atlantic on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-50%) generally west to southwest moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast early Monday morning and into the day on Monday. Isolated generally onshore moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. East winds at 12-18kts are forecast on Monday and Tuesday before reducing to 10-15kts from the east-southeast on Wednesday. Seas to 2-4ft are expected with up to 5ft forecast over the Gulf Stream Monday night and through early Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions anticipated through the period at all local terminals. Light and variable winds through early this morning, with winds becoming east- southeast around 10 knots as the sea breeze develops along the coast and moves inland. There is a low (20 percent) chance for shower development across the interior terminals between 21-00Z as the east coast sea breeze moves inland and collides with the west coast sea breeze. Kept mention of VCSH at MCO, ISM, and SFB, and added LEE in, though confidence remains low. Winds becoming light around 5 knots once again overnight, generally out of the southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Very warm and dry conditions are forecast through Sunday with continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower near 35% across the interior Sunday afternoon. Minimum RH values are forecast between 45-55% near the coast where dewpoints and humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday before reducing to 35-40% over the interior on Wednesday. Light east to southeast winds will be enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon through at least Wednesday with speeds to 10-15 mph and gusts to 20-25mph. Maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior on Sunday with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally, Good dispersion values are forecast Sunday with Generally Good to Very Good Dispersions on Monday. Burn bans are in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Volusia, and Brevard counties. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (20-30% chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the potential to spark a wildfire given the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 67 82 67 / 10 20 30 10 MCO 93 67 88 68 / 10 10 40 10 MLB 85 68 83 69 / 0 0 30 20 VRB 85 67 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 LEE 93 68 89 67 / 20 20 50 20 SFB 93 68 88 66 / 10 10 40 10 ORL 93 68 88 68 / 10 10 40 10 FPR 85 66 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228254 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 GOES Total PW imagery shows a tongue of low moisture values stretching inland from the Gulf and encompassing most of the area...exception being extreme western zones where there`s a few weak showers showing up on radar. These should dissipate by early evening. With wx pattern remaining about as-is (mid/upper ridging from Mexico stretching nnewd across eastern TX, llvl onshore flow), one would expect wx to remain about status quo too. Look for late night/early morning cloudiness and patchy fog followed by pcldy afternoons. Temps will be running about 5-10F above seasonable norms and rain chances, though not exactly zero, aren`t worth mentioning. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Persistent southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to warm and humid weather for the majority of next week. High temperatures Tuesday through Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area with max heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Increased rain chances on Thursday may lead to localized cooler than forecasted high temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s for most of next week with perhaps a slight cool down heading into next weekend with lows in the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level low will be moving into the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Some isolated showers or storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon in SE Texas just thanks to increased moisture and PVA ahead of the trough. However, rain chances increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the associated weak cold front moves into the region. Some uncertainty on the timing (could be as early as midnight Wednesday night or as late as noon Thursday) and how far the cold front makes it into the region before stalling/retreating back north (could make it to I-10 or off the coast). Some cooler/drier air will likely filter into the region on Thursday behind the boundary, but onshore flow quickly returns bringing back warm, humid conditions. Passing weak disturbances aloft may trigger additional showers and storms Friday and Saturday, but coverage is looking limited at this time. Fowler && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1200-1800ft will begin within the next few hours across the area with UTS and CXO possibly dropping down to IFR conditions at times due to CIGs around 700ft. Patchy fog is also possible, but likely not as dense as last night. VFR conditions return to the area by the mid-morning as the clouds scatter out, but return late tomorrow night with MVFR CIGs returning. Light southeasterly winds around 3-6kt will persist through the morning, increasing to around 8-12kt with gusts to 20kt during the afternoon and evening before lowering again below 7kts by sunset. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Onshore flow of 7-15kt will persist through much of next week with gusts to 20kt becoming possible Tuesday through Thursday. Low seas of 2-4ft will persist through Tuesday morning, increasing to 4-6ft Tuesday through Thursday as the winds get slightly higher. Minimal rain chances exist through Wednesday, but an approaching boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning or afternoon. The persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing risk of strong rip currents through the week with rip current statements possibly needed by Tuesday or Wednesday. Abnormally high astronomical tides and the increasing onshore flow will lead to higher than normal tides with high tide on Tuesday morning rising to around 3ft above MLLW and around 3.5ft above MLLW for high tide on Wednesday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 71 85 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 81 75 81 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228253 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 127 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Lowered chances for patchy fog occurring overnight, otherwise forecast remains on track through tomorrow morning with no major updates required at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today through Tonight) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Sfc ridge axis is dropping south of the area this afternoon with general south to southeast flow over the local area. Atlantic sea breeze, low level troughing southwest to northeast over southeast GA, and sufficient moisture and instability expected to result in a low chance of a shower or storm from about 5 pm through this evening. The best chance would be from the Okefenokee Swamp eastward to the coast and north into coastal southeast GA. Tonight, some isolated convection mainly north portions of the area, but should dissipate by midnight. Mostly clear skies overnight. Low level flow will become light and variable or southerly as the ridge will be south of the area. The forecast area will also be approached by a cold front moving in from the north. Lows in the lower to mid 60s anticipated for most of the area, with some patchy fog possible inland areas after about 3 AM. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A slow moving northwest to southeast oriented cold front will move south into SE GA Sunday. Convection is expected to develop Sunday afternoon. This activity will initiate due to a combination of convergence along the boundary, diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions. The greatest chance for precipitation Sunday afternoon and evening will focus on the front. The cold front will make little progress to the south Sunday night, with convergence along it keeping precipitation chances going into the night. The boundary will continue to drift south Monday into Monday night. The boundary will have a greater push down the local waters, causing the boundary to have a nearly north to south orientation by Monday night. Precipitation chances will increase on Monday with increasing moisture ahead of the front. With loss of diurnal heating, lower chances for Monday night. Low temperatures will be above normal this period. Temperatures will be above normal across the area Sunday. There will be a gradient in temperatures from east to west on Monday due to the front, but in general readings will run above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The frontal boundary will largely dissipate over inland NE FL Tuesday, as a high pressure ridge centered to the northeast moves south across region. The greatest chance for convection Tuesday afternoon and evening will be across inland areas due to position of what is left of frontal boundary, along with sea breeze interactions and diurnal heating. A dry day is forecast for Wednesday as high pressure ridge centered to the east northeast will stretch across region. The high will become centered more to the east southeast on Thursday, with subsidence under high keeping the dry weather going. A trough of low pressure will pass just to the north of area Thursday night. A cold front will move into SE GA Friday afternoon initiating convection, then move southeast across the area Friday night. With loss of diurnal heating, Friday night is expected to be largely dry. The boundary will be just to the south Saturday. Diurnal instability, sea breeze interactions, and left over convergence north of the front will result in convective chances Saturday. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR with just a FEW to SCT mid and high clouds this morning prior to the frontal passage later today, except for the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame. Models still on track for back door frontal passage this afternoon to reach SSI by 17Z, then JAX/CRG/VQQ by 19-20Z time frame and while rainfall chances will be possible with this feature, they are generally less than 30% so will continue with just VCSH until guidance becomes more clear to add any PROB30 groups or potential for any TSRA activity. Further south at GNV/VQQ expect airmass to remain too dry for any shower activity, although sea breeze will push inland through SGJ by the 17-18Z time frame and then some isolated shower (VCSH) will be possible later tonight in the onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Low level flow will veer through tonight in response to the high pressure ridge dropping southward and a cold front approaching from the north. Winds peak at about 15-17 kt offshore tonight. The front may be moving in quicker than earlier forecasts tomorrow, probably moving into the southeast GA waters by about noon to 3 PM on Sunday, and the northeast FL waters from 3 pm-7 pm. Winds will shift to the northeast with speeds approaching caution criteria with seas also building. Exercise caution headlines may be needed by later Sunday north part of the waters, then chances increasing through the rest of the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday and Monday night, but likely at least about 12-16 kt for most areas. Seas may climb toward 4-6 ft Sunday night north parts, becoming more likely at during the time frame from Monday into Tuesday as the flow is fairly consistent from the east (longer fetch), building the sea state further. Peak height in the sea state generally looks to be Tue-Wed. The nearly stationary front may decay on Tuesday over northern FL. The high pressure ridge axis will then slowly shift south of the local waters by mid to late with a shift to south to southwest flow again on Thursday. Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Risk of Rip currents at NE FL/SE GA beaches this weekend with surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range as Southeast sea breeze develops today, then onshore E-NE flow develops on Sunday with the backdoor frontal passage. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 213 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 DAILY RECORD HIGHS SAT 4/26SUN 4/27 JAX 92 (2011) 94 (1986) GNV93 (1908) 96 (2011) AMG93 (1986) 96 (1986) CRG91 (1989) 93 (2011) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 83 62 85 / 20 40 0 10 SSI 69 79 69 79 / 40 30 0 0 JAX 67 84 65 83 / 30 50 10 10 SGJ 68 82 67 80 / 30 50 10 10 GNV 66 89 64 86 / 10 60 10 20 OCF 65 91 65 88 / 10 50 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1228252 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Tonight through Sunday Night... Upper level heights will gradually increase slightly over our area through Sunday night as an upper ridge becomes more defined over the southern plains states and builds eastward across the central Gulf coast. This will maintain mostly dry conditions as increasing subsidence prevents more than just isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two across the area. Any isolated convection that develops will be during the afternoon hours on Sunday in association with peak heating inland and weak sea breeze interactions closer to the coast. Basically a summer-type pattern will be in place across the region. Patchy to areas of fog will likely develop across the area tonight (and probably Sunday night as well). The fog could potentially be dense in some locations. Will likely need another Dense Fog Advisory across portions of the forecast area again tonight, but it is difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations this will occur, so will let the evening and midnight shift monitor trends and make final call on where the Advisory may be necessary. The fog will dissipate by around 9am Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to run above normal with overnight lows ranging from the low 60s inland to mid/upper 60s near the coast (and a few lower 70s possible for the barrier islands) both tonight and Sunday night. Highs on Sunday mainly in the upper 80s to near 90 for all inland locations, but mid 80s closer to the coast and even lower 80s along the immediate beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents tonight becomes low on Sunday. DS/12 Monday through Saturday... An upper ridge pivots eastward over the southeast states through Wednesday, leading to dry and continued well above normal temperatures. The influence of the ridge lessens its grip the second half of the work week as it shifts east off the southeast US coast. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system approaches the lower MS River Valley Thursday. With this feature`s eastward advance, an attendant cold front settles to the coast by later in the day Friday. An increase in cloud cover and rain chances expected Thursday and Friday. The front pushes south Saturday and brings a return to drier weather. /10 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions over the forecast area are expected to see local drops to low end MVFR/IFR after 09z as fog develops. Best chance will be southeast of I-65. Areas east of the Tombigbee will see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with local drops in conditions to low end MVFR possible in the stronger storms. Any convection will quickly decrease with the setting sun Sunday evening. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A generally light and somewhat diurnal flow will persist through Monday with a light offshore flow developing at night and a light onshore flow developing during the day. A more consistent light to occasionally moderate primarily onshore flow will develop Tuesday and continue into mid to late week. DS/12 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228251 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 107 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering rain will move out of the region, and a cold front then ushers in a much cooler airmass tonight. Cloudy, cool, and blustery conditions on Sunday. High pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday, along with mild to warm temperatures. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday with a few showers possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Seasonable temperatures to end the week with the next chance for rain by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages: * Drying out with dropping temperatures and gusty winds with frontal passage tonight Updated rainfall chances through this evening using timing from the last few runs of the HRRR. Expecting most of southern New England to be dry by midnight EDT. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showed a rapid trend for increasing stability. The greatest risk for any thunderstorms will be before 9 PM EDT. Still expecting gusty west winds to develop behind a cold front moving across southern New England this evening. Previous Discussion... Any lingering rain will exit the region tonight around midnight and a cold front will progress through, which will also help clear some of today`s cloud cover. Gusty west winds to around 25 knots will be possible. Drier conditions take hold as this cooler and drier airmass moves in; dewpoints expected to fall from the 50s and 60s down to the 30s and 40s, and PWATs decrease down to around 0.5". Lows tonight expected to be in the low 40s across the interior, with mid 40s for much of the coastal plain into the Cape and Islands. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages: * Cool and blustery before winds diminish overnight Clouds return for Sunday due to the cyclonic flow aloft from a trough sitting over the region. Winds shift more NW as the day goes on. CAA will continue to promote the mixing of winds aloft down to the surface, fueling gusts to 35 kt in the highest elevations. Most guidance is indicating that the highest winds are possible in the afternoon to evening hours when the core of the 50-60 kt jet will be over much of southern New England as the trough continues to move east. However, the mixing of the strongest winds may be cut off as the jet decouples in the evening hours, so held off on any wind headlines for the time being. Clear conditions make a return Sunday night as high pressure begins to move in after the low exits. Highs Sunday are expected to be in the 50s, and lows Sunday night should be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Much warmer with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. A few showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. * Near seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday. While Thursday is likely dry, rain chances return for Friday. High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast early neat week, but extends far enough north into New England to maintain dry weather through Tuesday. Our region will also be on the warmer side of this high pressure with increasing southwest winds, especially Tuesday. A low pressure moving across eastern Canada should push its cold front across southern New England some time Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will mean a chance for showers during this time. High pressure briefly returns Thursday with dry weather, but this time its positioning will lead to lower temperatures. Another low pressure moving across eastern Canada should send another cold front our way late next week. Thus, there is a risk for more showers late next week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z: High confidence. Cold front has pushed through the region. Improvement to SCT-BKN VFR, though some MVFR bases may redevelop overnight in western area airports. Winds become W/WNW around 10-15 kt with gusts 25 kt (up to 30 kt across the high terrain). Sunday through Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts. Gusts to 30-35 kt possible across the region during the afternoon/evening hours, dropping off overnight. Monday: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts less than 15 knts before 18z. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in lower ceilings Sunday. VFR. Gusty winds continue through tonight and Sunday with the cold frontal passage. BKN 030-050 stratocumulus develop Sunday. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in lower ceilings Sunday. VFR. Gusty winds continue through tonight and Sunday with the cold frontal passage. BKN 030-050 stratocumulus develop Sunday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Southerly flow continues to strengthen into the SCA range for the rest of today, with winds 25-30 kt and seas 4-7 ft. Rain and reduced visibilities expected until a sharp frontal passage this evening, bringing a windshift to W/NW around 15-25 kt. Sunday NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kts with seas of 3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to continue through Sunday night across the eastern waters into Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay, with wind gusts to 25 kt and higher possible. Seas Sunday night ranging from 4-6 ft. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232-250- 254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ233>237-256. && $$ |
| #1228250 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1206 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 - Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents through Sunday The weak 500 mb shortwave looks like it is leaving the vicinity of South Texas as the mid level clouds begin to strip off leaving the cu streaks that are beginning to mix out along the Coastal Bend. The showers/sprinkles around the region also are beginning to diminish as the better organized showers near VCT have moved north into South Central Texas. So for the rest of tonight and through Sunday night, models are in agreement that there won`t be any 500 mb shortwave troughs moving through the region. The only issue will be cloud cover overnight. With the moisture still running between 1.5" and 1.7" PWAT values (between the 75th and 99th percentile), humid air, and lower clouds will be the rule for tonight, which will take probably until the early afternoon before the clouds mix out, only for the clouds to move back in by midnight Sunday, and stay into Monday. It looks like we continue the moderate risk of rip currents tonight and Sunday. We are still right around the New Moon, and an onshore flow that has lasted for over 4 days. The swell periods and swell heights are subsiding, so the threat will probably begin to lessen Sunday night and into Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Key Messages: - Low (10-20%) rain chances return to South Texas by mid week. - Above normal temperatures continue through next week. - Cold front with showers and thunderstorms possible Friday A mid to upper level ridge will continue across South Texas, keeping our temperatures above normal and the area mostly dry through Tuesday, though isolated showers will be possible along the sea breeze. Moisture will increase with PWAT values nearing 1.7" Wednesday just as an embedded short wave moves along the northern periphery of the high. This will lead to a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern portions of the region and a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the southern portions of the area. Showers and thunderstorms chances will persist through Thursday before increasing to a low to moderate (30-40%) chance on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence on anything to do with Friday`s potential cold front is very low due to uncertainty in the guidance. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 MVFR ceilings are expected to impact most sites from about 06/07z- 14/15z tonight with a low chance for fog at VCT dropping visibilities down to 1 SM. All sites should return to VFR conditions by 15/17z which is when the gusty winds are expected to return with gusts up to 28 knots. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop tomorrow evening about 04z. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze will persist through this weekend with seas generally between 3 to 4 feet. An onshore moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze is expected Monday through Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Onshore winds will diminish to moderate Wednesday, then to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze for the remainder of the work week. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Winds and humidity level are expected to stay below critical thresholds through next week, though brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the Rio Grande Plains when minimum afternoon relative humidity values drop below 30% and ERC values rise above 70% Monday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 86 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 86 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 71 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 84 74 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 72 97 72 96 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 71 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 80 75 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228249 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 100 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A pair of high pressure systems, one over the NE Gulf and another over the western Atlantic will keep things primarily dry this weekend. A weak mid/upper level impulse across the Carribean will continue to touch off some occasional showers to our south across the FL Straits and at times over the far southern Atlantic waters. A few showers may try to brush the SE FL coast but PoPs will remain under 10%. On Sunday some of the hi-res guidance suggest a weak surface trough will develop along the spine of FL, which could touch off a few late day showers around the lake region. High temps across the east coast metro will continue to be around normal this weekend with low to mid 80s expected, while inland and SW FL will be quite toasty with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s inland to around 70 close to the Atlantic coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Mostly benign conditions are forecast through the period with an amplifying deep-layer ridge moving into the Southeast. Ensembles still indicate an upper-level shortwave riding over and down the east side of the ridge axis Monday into Tuesday. While there`s still placement and intensity differences between the ensemble members, it seems that there`ll at least be an increase in deep layer moisture that could fuel the seabreeze in the afternoon Monday (especially on the west coast). On Tuesday, a larger and deeper trough moving into the NW Atlantic and expanding SW will force a decaying back-door front across Florida. Slightly less coverage of storms than on Monday is expected on Tuesday, but these will be the two best chances in the coming week for rain as we dry out once again behind the aforementioned front into the end of the week. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Light easterly winds around 5 kts early this morning becoming E/SE 10-15 kts after 16Z, with a westerly Gulf breeze developing at APF this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected this weekend across the Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue today for the Atlantic beaches. The risk lessens on Sunday as easterly flow weakens, however an elevated risk will remain across the Palm Beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 84 74 83 / 0 0 10 10 West Kendall 70 86 70 85 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 72 86 72 85 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 73 84 72 83 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 82 73 80 / 0 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 83 73 81 / 0 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 75 87 74 86 / 0 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 71 84 72 82 / 0 10 10 10 Boca Raton 72 85 72 83 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 70 88 69 88 / 10 10 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1228248 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 27.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1213 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through tonight, followed by high pressure through much of next week. Another cold front could approach the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The cold front is expected to be near the I-16 corridor by daybreak Sunday. Still expect a few showers/tstms to potentially brush upper Charleston County near McClellanville as the front pushes south. Slight chance pops were maintained there with rain-free conditions elsewhere. Lows from the lower-mid 60s inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches look good. No major changes were made for the midnight update. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will push to the south Sunday into Monday while high pressure builds from the north. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over southeast Georgia where better moisture and instability resides, perhaps aided by weak shortwave energy passing through Sunday night into Monday. Across southeast South Carolina, dry conditions should prevail. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 70s near the northern zones to upper 80s near the Altamaha River in Georgia. Upper 70s to lower 80s will be the rule for Monday. Lows will be within a few degrees of normal. High pressure will shift offshore on Tuesday. Large scale subsidence under a mid level ridge building overhead will maintain a rain-free forecast. Highs will largely be in the low to mid 80s, except a touch cooler near the immediate coast and at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level ridge will remain over the Southeast through midweek, before exiting offshore in advance of a larger scale trough moving towards the East Coast. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure will extend across the area through at least Thursday. A cold front will then approach late week. Isolated diurnal showers/thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday, then higher rain chances are expected Friday with the front. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 27/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 06z Monday. A cold front will drop south through the terminals prior to daybreak. A few showers could develop near KSAV as the sea breeze gets a bit active early this afternoon, but the best coverage should remain to the south and southwest. No mention was included given the low probability of occurrence (~20%). Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Overnight: Southwest winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Sunday through Thursday: Gusty east-northeast winds are expected to develop on Sunday as high pressure builds from the north behind a cold front. Some low 20 kt gusts will be possible, but conditions will stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The pressure gradient will ease Sunday night into Monday. No additional marine concerns through midweek with winds turning southerly as high pressure shifts offshore. Speeds will average around 10 kt or less, with some enhancements possible near the coast with the sea breeze. Seas will settle into the 2-3 foot range. Rip Currents: The combination of gusty onshore winds, lingering 2 ft, 9 second swell and astronomical influences will lead to a High Risk of rip currents at Georgia beaches on Sunday and a Moderate Risk at South Carolina beaches. An elevated risk of rip currents is expected to persist into Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Elevated tide cycles are expected Sunday into the middle of next week due to the upcoming new moon and perigee. Favorable northeast to east winds will drive tidal departures up, and Coastal Flood Advisories will be possible. For the Charleston Harbor tide gage, minor coastal flooding is currently forecast with the evening high tides Sunday through Tuesday, with a possibility for moderate flooding (7.5 ft MLLW) mainly on Sunday. For the Fort Pulaski gage, minor flooding (9.5 ft MLLW) is possible with the Sunday and Monday evening high tides. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
