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| #1258421 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1210 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze until mid morning across northern parts of the area. There is a non-zero chance of a few isolated pockets of freezing fog toward sunrise. - Cold front pushes through this evening, but Arctic air really doesn`t filter in until Friday night. - Hard freezes for northern parts of the area Friday night & most of the region Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Look for another cool start to the day. Latest guidance isn`t quite as bullish with the freezing fog potential between now and mid morning near the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley (~30%), versus some of the earlier (50%+ runs), but the potential is there so some caution is advised for the early morning commute. Otherwise, we should see a nice warm up with readings making their way into the 60s with the sw llvl winds ahead of the next incoming front. This dry front will push thru the region this evening. Cold, Arctic high pressure will spill southward into SE TX Friday night through Saturday Night. Corresponding temps will take a dive back down into hard freeze territory for the Piney Woods area Friday night and daytime highs on Sat only between 36-45F for all the area. By Saturday night almost all inland locations will see a hard freeze with lows in the 17-22F range. Cannot rule out a Cold Weather Advisory or two. Ridging transitions to the east later Sunday, with a warming/modifying trend ensuing early next week. Next chance of rain comes into play Tuesday or Wednesday as moisture recovers with the onshore flow, we see a somewhat messy upper pattern, and another front getting closer to the region. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 629 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 All sites at VFR at this time. Expecting SGR/GLS/LBX to remain VFR through the period. Light patchy fog will be possible at these sites; however, not expecting to drop below VFR levels. For IAH/HOU/CXO, anticipating fog to be a bit more impactful, particularly for IAH/HOU where fog may bring VSBYs down to IFR levels from around 11Z through 14Z. Further north, at CLL/UTS, air temperatures are expected to drop to below freezing. Enhanced radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will serve as a catalyst for fog development in these areas, and with freezing temperatures, have included in the forecast the potential for freezing fog overnight into Thursday morning. Fog could become dense at times, which could create slick conditions on runways and light icing on exposed surfaces. Expect improvement to VFR by mid to late morning across all sites. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the day. The next cold front will push off the coast late this evening followed by moderate north winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories may be required late tonight. With a reinforcing shot of cold, Arctic air anticipated Friday night, winds and seas should further increase into Saturday, then gradually decrease Sunday. On the bays, already low astronomical tides will produce some negative water levels this week, even more so Friday night into the weekend with stronger north winds in place. Low Water Advisories are already in place. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 32 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 37 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 64 42 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ330- 335. && $$ |
| #1258420 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1256 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak Continues through Early Next Week. Light Freeze & Frost for Inland Locations on Tonight. Protect People, Pets, Plants, and Practice Safe Heating - Record Cold & Dangerously Low Wind Chills Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Windy Conditions Expected from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning. Life-threatening Wind Chills (Single Digits) Possible Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning - Gale Conditions this Weekend for the Atlantic Coastal Waters - Saturday and Saturday Evening Snowfall Potential Decreasing. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) of 15-25% Across Southeast GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak high pressure and increasing westerly flow in the low levels will trend temperatures warmer today after the inland freeze this morning. Highs will warm back to the 60s across most of inland NE FL and the upper 50s across SE GA. Weak onshore flow will keep coastal temperatures a bit cooler with highs stay in the mid 50s this afternoon. There will be abundant sunshine to start the day but high level moisture with a strengthening upper level jet will build a thicker shield of cirrus through the afternoon and evening, especially across SE GA. These clouds may keep temperatures from cooling as quickly tonight limiting the extent of freezing temperatures to inland areas of SE GA where a new Freeze Watch has been issued. Elsewhere, freezing temperatures are less likely but lows tonight should cool to the mid/upper 30s across NE FL and support areas to widespread frost development by early Friday; a Frost Advisory will likely be needed for much of inland NE FL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An area of weak low pressure will develop over the central Gulf and move northeast across FL Friday. This low will develop further and strengthen as it moves to the northeast of the area Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves across FL, rain showers will be possible from late in the day Friday, through Saturday night. At this time, it looks like enough moisture will wrap around the back side of the departing low to bring at least a low chance of a light wintry mix Saturday into Saturday night, with greatest chance over SE GA. The low will continue to intensify as it moves away to the northeast Saturday night. With the flow from the southwest ahead of low Friday, highs will rise to near seasonal levels. Friday night temperatures will be near a little below average. Once the low moves away to the northeast, colder air will wrap into region behind it. Highs on Saturday will be well below normal, with readings falling into the 17 to 22 range Saturday night. So, a hard freeze is expected all across forecast area including the beach communities. With winds elevated behind the low, wind chills Saturday night will drop into the single digits, placing Saturday night solidly in the Extreme Cold Warning range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The low will continue to pull away to the northeast Sunday, as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high will weaken and move off to the east Wednesday. This will be a dry period. Hazards this period will be focused on the cold airmass. Nightly freezes are expected. Temperatures will be below average for most of this period, with a recovery to near average for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... SKC skies and light to calm conditions with wind speeds at or below 5 knots through the predawn hours. High clouds will fill the skies this afternoon but VFR conditions will remain. Winds will shift northerly this morning and then northeasterly to easterly behind a weak cold front brushing past the area. && .MARINE... Elevated winds continue through the morning as a weak cold front brushes across the waters. Winds will settle this afternoon as high pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday night as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy low dispersions inland Today - Patchy high dispersions NE FL Friday - Widespread high dispersions This Weekend High pressure ridging will prevail through Tonight. An area of low pressure will gather over the central Gulf Friday, then move across FL Friday night. The low will then strengthen and move away to the northeast over the weekend. High pressure will become the prevailing weather feature early next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Tonight. A dangerously cold airmass will settle in over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below: Record Low Maximum Temperatures: Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948 Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980 Record Low Temperatures: Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977 Monday, February 2: JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 30 60 33 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 54 42 59 41 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 59 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 57 43 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 GNV 63 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 63 37 69 42 / 0 0 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-236-322-422-425-522. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ038-124-132- 137-140-225-232-237-240-340-533-633. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-138-233- 325-333-433. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258419 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1251 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues to increase in the potential for accumulating snowfall across portions of the region this weekend. The aviation section was updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. - 2) Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night. A sharp trough is forecast to dig southward out of the Great Lakes on Friday, dropping into the southeastern states Saturday. Simultaneously a surface low is forecast to develop off the southeastern coast before trekking to the northeast. Precipitation along the backside of the low is forecast to impact the region Saturday into early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings indicate dry conditions will dominate prior to daybreak Saturday and into the first few hours of Saturday morning. Conditions will then saturate as precipitation moves into the region. Unique to the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia is the fact that this event will be rain/snow, with no meaningful probabilities of freezing rain/sleet. Forecast soundings show that the entire column of air will be below freezing, leading to an all snow forecast once surface temperatures drop below freezing. Given the very cold temperatures, the snow ratio could approach 20 to 1, also unique for the area. This snow ratio is quite high and would result in a "dry" snowfall. Given these details, Winter Storm Warning criteria (2 inches) is possible across northern and inland areas of the SC Lowcountry, with Winter Weather Advisory criteria (1-2 inches) possible across the rest of the region, except for counties south of I-16 in Georgia. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night. A reinforcing Arctic high will slide into the region Friday night and then persist through Monday before shifting off the Southeast coast. Cold advection during the day Saturday will prevent high temps from climbing out of the mid 30s over inland SC/GA. Closer to the coast where there will be fewer hours of cold advection, highs should reach the low to mid 40s. Saturday evening, temperatures will rapidly plummet, with most areas in the 20s by 9pm. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens and 10-15 mph winds will produce wind chills in the single digits for most of the night. We will likely need an Extreme Cold Warning for the entire area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday night lows will be in the upper teens, but wind speeds will be notably weaker, so wind chills will mainly be 10-15 degrees. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely for Sunday night. Lake Moultrie winds: Winds out of the northwest sustained in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts of 25 to 30 knots may require a Lake Wind Advisory Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV through the 06Z TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the extended period, with increasing potential for impacts Saturday associated with developing low pressure offshore of the Southeastern coast. && .MARINE... A potent surface low will develop off the SC coast on Saturday, then shift northeast on Sunday. A period of Gale force winds is expected during this period in all zones except Charleston Harbor where solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated. It`s a bit too early to issue a Gale Watch, but there is high confidence that we`ll eventually need one. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 15/1966 KCXM: 19/1966 KSAV: 16/1966 February 1: KCHS: 21/1977 KCXM: 23/1900 KSAV: 23/1977 February 2: KCHS: 19/1980 KCXM: 17/1917 KSAV: 18/1917 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: January 31: KCHS: 36/1948 KCXM: 34/1936 KSAV: 37/1909 February 1: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 36/1900 KSAV: 38/1900 February 2: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 38/1898 KSAV: 38/1951 Record Snowfall: January 31: KCHS: 0.6/1977 KSAV: 1.3/1977 February 1: KCHS: no record established KSAV: no record established && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar remains out of service. More parts are on order. We hope to have the radar restored by Saturday. Users should use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1258418 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1137 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 - A pair of cold fronts move across the area Friday and Saturday, ushering in an Arctic airmass. Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected late Friday night into Sunday. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones Friday night through through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, especially over the Gulf. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Now through Wednesday... For the rest of the week through the weekend, a strong cold front moves across the forecast area Friday, with a reinforcing front moving across the forecast area Saturday in response to two passing upper level shortwaves. Winds behind the first front will remain breezy Friday, with low temperatures in the upper teens north of Highway 84 to upper 20s near the coast and Wind Chills dropping into the single digits north of Highway 84 and teens south Friday night. But strong winds (a Wind Advisory will likely be needed) Saturday accompany the second front, ushering in even colder air and limiting high temperatures to the 30s Saturday and daytime wind chills in the teens to low 20s over most of the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday night drop even lower the previous night, bottoming out into teens over areas inland from the coast, around 20 along the coast. Wind Chills dropping into the single digits forecast area wide are expected Saturday night. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect from late Friday evening into Sunday morning. Any precipitation from these passing shortwaves are expected to remain well offshore. Some recovery is expected Sunday as the cold airmass that moves over the western half of the Southeast begins to shift east as an upper ridge that has built north over the western Conus shifts east. In the coming week, surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, shifting onshore flow back to onshore by Tuesday. A modest moisture return occurs by mid week before another front approaches the Southeast. Deterministic guidance diverges into mid week with this passage, but are in agreement that temperatures rise back to near seasonal norms by the end of the forecast. Offshore flow through most of the forecast will limit any swell, keeping the Rip Risk low through the weekend into the coming week. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds 5 knots or less overnight shift to southerly 5 to 10 knots Thursday afternoon. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Weak onshore flow shifts to moderate to strong Friday as a cold front passes. A reinforcing front passes Saturday, keeping offshore flow strong to very strong into Sunday. A Gale Watch is in effect for open Gulf waters beginning late Friday night, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be issued for protected waters Thursday. Surface high pressure approaches area waters late Sunday into the coming week, easing winds over area waters into Monday, then shifting them to onshore in the coming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 28 57 38 59 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 33 55 43 61 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 36 56 46 61 / 0 0 10 20 Evergreen 25 56 33 57 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 25 55 32 51 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 25 53 31 50 / 0 0 0 20 Crestview 25 58 35 62 / 0 0 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for FLZ201>205. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ650- 655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1258417 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1134 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Strong cold front moves through tonight - Freezing temperatures return this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Warm conditions will hang around for the day with highs climbing into the lower 70s across the region. A cold front will push through this evening bringing frigid cold weather back to the area. Highs beginning this weekend will only top out in the 40s and 50s as the ridge settles in overhead. Lows will drop into the 20s and 30s throughout the area beginning Friday night through Saturday night. Wind chill values will be in the teens and 20s likely warranting some cold weather products to be issued. This will be closely monitored as we near this weekend. Please take precautions if you need to spend extended periods outside. The chances for precipitation along and ahead of the front have continued to trend low with rain chances less the 10%. Will have to monitor another disturbance coming up around midweek next week which should bring us our next shot at some rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with light variable winds and FEW-SCT upper-level clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 A light to gentle flow is expected to continue through the day transitioning to strong breeze with gusts to gale due to the arrival of our next front. This front will promote low to medium (20-50%) rain chances with the frontal passage and strong winds in its wake. Conditions will persist through Saturday before transitioning to moderate breeze by Saturday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will hover below critical values Friday and linger through Sunday in the wake of our next cold front Thursday night. Although RH values will be low most days, light winds, cool temperatures and low to moderate Energy Release Component values will limit the fire weather potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 71 40 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 70 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 71 45 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 40 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 66 39 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 39 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 40 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 43 57 39 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1258416 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1234 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Freeze Warning, Frost Advisory, and a Cold Weather Advisory remain in effect for much of east central Florida tonight into Thursday morning - Significantly colder air arrives Saturday and Saturday night with lows in the 20s and wind chills in the teens to single digits Sunday morning; very cold air lasting into early next week - Strong, gusty winds are forecast Saturday into Sunday with gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph at times, particularly along the coast Saturday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Now-Friday...A mostly clear sky this afternoon has offered limited surface heating with temperatures still in the mid 50s to low 60s. A few more clouds are building across Martin and Saint Lucie counties, where a small plume of 0.7" PW exists. Hi-res model soundings remain very dry, despite the thin layer of clouds, so any light shower that does form is likely to stay offshore or at most brush the coast. Thus, we do carry a 15-20% chance of light rain across southeastern Martin County through sunset. Drier air works south overnight with winds remaining light, generally 10 mph or less. Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures will drop quickly into the 30s after midnight. A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory begins at midnight and continues through 9 AM Thursday. Probabilistic guidance remains largely unchanged, indicating the highest chance for sub-freezing temperatures (40-60%) across rural Volusia, Lake, south-central Osceola, and northern Okeechobee counties. Locations in and around the Orlando metro will likely stay a couple degrees warmer with outlying portions of Seminole, Orange, and northern Osceola counties approaching the freezing mark. While winds will be light, wind chill values are still forecast to reach the mid to upper 20s over much of east central Florida. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory is in place, beginning at 2 AM Thursday, excluding coastal Brevard County, the immediate Treasure Coast, and all of Martin County. For the latest hazards at your location, please visit weather.gov/mlb. Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold. High pressure maintains a pattern of dry weather through late week as temperatures trend slightly warmer each day, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s Friday afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are in the works Thursday, though a few more clouds work across the south on Friday as moisture generally increases. Overnight lows settle into the 40s and 50s (upper 30s across northern Lake/inland Volusia Friday morning). This Weekend-Tuesday (modified)...Deepening low pressure transitioning into an eventual nor`easter is still outlined by all available model guidance into Saturday. This low will form very close to Florida before lifting into the Atlantic. As it passes by early Saturday, we still carry 30-50% chances for rain showers. Rainfall tallies still look on the light side. By late morning and into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The initial impact will be a burst of strong west-northwest winds. Peak wind gusts from 35-45 mph are on the table, and the latest NBME probabilities show at least a 20% chance of wind gusts 40+ mph inland (greater than 50% along the coast) Saturday afternoon and evening as the deepening low tightens the surface pressure gradient. Keep these winds in mind when considering when and how to protect any tender vegetation before the cold air arrives! Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night, pushing Arctic air down the peninsula. Daily record lows are anticipated on Sunday morning. Temperatures will only slowly moderate, with additional freezes anticipated on Monday and Tuesday morning. Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several updates: SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-40%). Much of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills in the teens. MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper teens-mid 20s). A hard freeze is less likely Tuesday morning, though sub-freezing temperatures remain forecast for a large portion of the area. For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport. With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event likely, residents, officials, and agricultural operations should be preparing for cold weather impacts. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. High temperatures on Sunday should fail to reach 50 degrees near and north of I-4, perhaps reaching the low 50s along the Treasure Coast. By Tuesday, most spots should return to the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 High pressure remains overhead through late week, though north- northwest winds briefly increase overnight into Thursday morning over the Gulf Stream and portions of the nearshore waters. Seas build up to 6 ft as result. Small craft will need to exercise caution as this brief wind and wave height increase occurs, through midday Thursday. All eyes are on this weekend as a deepening low pressure system forms offshore of the northeast FL coast, strengthening west- northwest winds to gale force by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The latest marine wind guidance came in a bit high over the waters, especially with wind gusts, so leaned closer to the previous forecast, maybe increasing speeds by a few knots. This level of wind and seas building up to 15 ft offshore Sunday will create dangerous marine conditions through the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Until Saturday, seas remain 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream) Thursday afternoon and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kts tonight veer in the morning, becoming northeasterly by the early afternoon, then becoming light Thursday evening and night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Low relative humidity values forecast Thursday afternoon will result in fire-sensitive conditions for one more day this work week. Moisture gradually returns to the area Friday into Saturday ahead of a very strong cold front. A northeast breeze around 10 mph (up to 15 mph) at the coast) is anticipated Thursday afternoon, followed by lighter winds on Friday. Rain chances increase Friday night into early Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20 MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30 SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20 ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20 FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-144. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ141-247-254- 547. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1258415 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 29.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1205 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 - Below average temperatures continue across South Florida. Cold apparent temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are forecast for Glades/Hendry/Inland Collier early this morning, with Cold Weather Advisories in effect. - Freezing temperatures as low as 31 degrees are possible early this morning for Glades County where a Freeze Warning is in effect. - Low relative humidities each afternoon this week across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida could result in periods of enhanced fire behavior. - A potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week as another strong cold front passes through the area. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 After a somewhat dreary and cloudy Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should bring more sunshine across all of South Florida. While early morning temperatures are expected to be quite cold again, the afternoon hours should be quite pleasant with most of South Florida warming up into the 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday will remain warmer than the previous few days as well. Expect upper 50s to low 60s along the east coast with mid 40s to lower 50s for interior and Southwest Florida. On Friday, a weak area of low pressure will cross the Florida peninsula which could bring a few more clouds and scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift from the northeast to the northwest through the day as the next hotly anticipated cold front approaches from the north. Aside from a few showers during the afternoon, Friday should be fairly pleasant as well with highs in the lower 70s. Lows overnight into Saturday will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 The aforementioned area of low pressure enters the western Atlantic on Saturday and will begin to rapidly deepen as it pushes towards the northeast. This system will send a strong cold front across South Florida on Saturday afternoon which will act to reinforce the cooler air mass across the area. The coolest and driest air mass of the season thus far arrives early Sunday morning with potentially widespread freezing or near freezing low temperatures across South Florida. Northwest flow prevails behind the strong front, which will advect a dry arctic continental air mass down the Florida peninsula all day on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning could be even colder as cold air advection is maximized, and maritime modification to the air mass is minimized, or nearly non-existent. Low temperatures could be so cold early Sunday and early Monday that Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed around Lake Okeechobee with potential Freeze Warnings extending much further south than the earlier cold snaps this season. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday and Monday may not reach much higher than the mid 50s. Trends have been closely monitored and will continue to be monitored through the week although confidence is slowly increasing that this could be the coldest Attic snap across South Florida since December 2010. Temperatures begin to rebound on Tuesday morning but will still dip into the lower 30s to lower 40s across all of South Florida although Tuesday afternoon we may finally be able to reach the 60s during the afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures (finally) are able to climb back into the 70s. Visit our website for graphical temperature forecasts (hover over `Forecast` and then click `Cold Weather` OR `Other Probabilistic Forecast Graphics`). Describing temperatures across every part of the forecast area through text is a bit clunky and images make the message much clearer. While the anomalous temperature forecast continues to steal the show, surface winds behind this cold front will be quite significant as well. Winds will increase out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon between 15-25 mph over land with potential gusts to around 40 mph through Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is not out of the question for this time period, and this potential will continue to be monitored. Regardless, it would be wise to secure any light outdoor obejects that may become projectiles prior to this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. NW winds around 10 kts overnight into Thursday morning will gradually shift and become NE after 16z Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 Conditions across local waters continue to improve today and Friday before they will once again rapidly deteriorate on Saturday. NNE flow between 15-20 kts will prevail today, weakening to 10-15 kts on Friday. Friday night into early Saturday, winds will veer to a more westerly direction across all local waters increasing to 30-40 kts by late Saturday night. Gusts during this time period could reach 40-50 kts. Gale watches/warnings will be explored over the coming forecast cycles. Wave heights will peak with the winds late Saturday night into early sunday warning with heights of 10-12 feet across both Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds and waves will slowly subside through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1152 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches through the end of the week. Rip current probabilities are poised to increase behind a cold front passage late this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 51 71 60 71 / 30 0 10 30 West Kendall 46 72 54 73 / 20 0 10 30 Opa-Locka 49 72 58 73 / 30 0 10 30 Homestead 51 72 59 73 / 30 0 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 50 70 60 71 / 30 0 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 50 70 59 71 / 30 0 10 30 Pembroke Pines 48 72 57 73 / 30 0 10 30 West Palm Beach 48 70 57 71 / 20 0 0 20 Boca Raton 48 71 58 72 / 30 0 10 30 Naples 41 70 52 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ063-066-070. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ063. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
