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| #1279600 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1021 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible at times tonight. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday morning. - Rain chances will increase further by the middle of the week as tropical moisture spreads into the area. - Drier air associated with a cold front will arrive late week and into the weekend will bring a lower risk of excessive rainfall, though some rain chances will linger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 An unusual broad upper trough blankets the Gulf of America, while a surface through lower level trough is aligned in the southeastern Gulf, across the Florida Peninsula and out into the Atlantic. This is making for an overall wetter than normal pattern as it has planted a wide band of increased lower level moisture across the Keys. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water of around 2.1 inches modest CAPE, and minimal inhibition. A number of clusters of showers and thunderstorms have worked their way across the Keys and its waters through the afternoon and evening. No significant shift in the synoptic setup is expected through the overnight period. As a result, the Keys will remain with a broad zone conducive for shower and thunderstorm formation. Will maintain likely PoPs. The surface trough aligned to our northwest will maintain light to gentle southeast to southerly breezes. Expect overnight lows to be broadly near 80 with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Broad troughing across the far southeastern Gulf and across the Florida Peninsula will result in gentle southeast to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters overnight. This trough will contribute to increased shower and thunderstorm coverage across the broader area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A wet weather pattern persists across the area. As a result, a round or two of sub VFR conditions will be possible. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the southeast to south. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279594 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:57 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 853 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning. WPC introduced a Slight ERO for roughly the western half of the area for Tuesday. Lowered high temperatures further on Wednesday and Thursday as cold air damming sets up across the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and storms tonight into Tuesday as a slow- moving front lingers across the area. 2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. 3) Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. && .DISCUSSION... As of 830 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers continue overnight, but the threat for any strong storms has ended. Latest WX analysis indicated the sfc front situated near of just S of the NC border. There was a distinct DCAPE gradient and despite very weak shear, some storms were able to become briefly strong along with localized heavy rainfall. In general, the threat for any additional strong storms has now ended w/ the loss of daytime heating and the latest SPC mesoanalysis now showing CIN across the region. Showers are developing across portions of central VA to the north of the front, and will become more widespread overnight over the NW 1/2 of the CWA, but additional tstms are unlikely or will be isolated. Lows tonight will range from the mid be in the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE. On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35 to up to 45 mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. WPC has highlighted the western half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO. Highs will range from the upper 60 N-NW to the low-mid 80s across southern portions of the area. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the mid 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35+ mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45 mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through at least Thursday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren`t expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for even some upper 40s well inland. Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it still appears that it will be just far enough from our area that we may have a pleasant weekend for most of the area, but that definitely could change as the details of the low`s placement come to light. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below). KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. Tidal anomalies will then significantly rise on Wednesday due to strong persistent NE winds. Minor flooding is likely with locally moderate flooding as early as the Wednesday morning high tide for site along the southern and western side of the Ches. Bay, tidal James and York Rivers, and the Atlantic coast. The Wednesday evening high tide is then forecast to see higher water levels with widespread moderate to locally major flooding. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Coastal FLood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area beginning Wednesday evening for most and Wednesday morning for tidal southern Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Impactful tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 830 PM EDT Monday... This evening, a frontal boundary has become nearly stationary across northern NC, with E-NE winds at all terminals. CIGs are mainly MVFR at 1500-2500 ft, through some IFR CIGs are starting to develop across the interior. The coverage of SHRA/TSRA has diminished since sunset, with the best chance for additional/redeveloping SHRA will be across central VA. Expect RIC to have mainly IFR restrictions overnight and through the day on Tuesday, with mainly MVFR restrictions at PHF/ORF/ECG. SHRA and/or BR also becomes more widespread Tuesday, leading to the potential for VSBY restrictions. NE winds become gusty along the immediate coast (20-25 knots) in the later morning-afternoon, with gusts to around 20 kt at RIC by later in the day. Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week. Wed should continue to see widespread flight restrictions, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely through Thursday. Coastal terminals will also have elevated NE winds for an extended period, with winds remaining elevated and shifting to the N-NW Fri-Sat. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island. - SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches remain in effect for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River, extended in time through Friday morning. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning. - Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front bisecting the coastal waters near the VA/NC state border this afternoon. Behind the cold front, winds have shifted out of the NE and increased to 10-15 kt (with a few gusts to 20 kt in the northern coastal waters). The front will continue pushing south this evening, before stalling south of the area. The strong CAA/wind with the front will be lagged, but NE winds will begin the increase to strong NE winds that will cause dangerous marine conditions. But this evening/tonight, NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south causing seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. SCAs remain in effect north of Parramore Island for the increased seas, beginning this evening. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for sustained 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to sustained 20-25 kt south and Ches. Bay/25-30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn. An impressive 1035+ mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are expected to occur Wed night through Thu night from the pressure gradient increasing between the high and deepening offshore low. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Gale Watches remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James river, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border, with the ocean waters now in effect through early Fri morning (there is potential for another expansion in time). Gale Watches have been issued for the ocean waters south of the VA/NC state border and the Currituck Sound from Wed afternoon through Fri morning. Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through Thu with the prolonged onshore flow, and remain high into the weekend due to high seas even as the winds become NNW. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for MDZ024. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ082>084-089-090-099-100-518-520-523- 524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ097-098-525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ633-658-688. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Friday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for ANZ656-686. && $$ |
| #1279591 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 834 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 827 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to the low 100s. - Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or two are also possible. - Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The closed upper low over the eastern Gulf continues to diffuse today into tomorrow as a shortwave moving across the Tennessee Valley pulls it northeast on Tuesday. This will result in below normal PoPs Tuesday across most of the area as forcing for ascent moves east-northeast. Convection will look to be forced primarily through the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. On Wednesday a frontal system approaches from the north but gets hung up across central GA/AL as its accompanying shortwave lifts north and flattens out. Forcing for showers and storms on Wednesday will come from a residual PV Streamer moving east across the region as its aforementioned shortwave flattens out, potentially aided by the sea breeze. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will be possible. Wednesday night into Thursday a transition occurs where a more potent shortwave dives southeast reinforcing an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, pushing the aforementioned frontal system south through central FL. This will allow prevailing NW flow aloft and north to northeast flow at the surface as surface high pressure builds across central CONUS. This pattern will effectively squash rain chances Thursday through Sunday to 10% or less, with near nil chances this weekend as drier northerly air filters into the region. Dew points currently in the upper 60s to mid 70s will drop after Thursday into the mid 50s to mid 60s Friday through Sunday, leading to pleasant weather conditions this weekend. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s through Wednesday, Thursday through Sunday highs will look to be in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows follow a similar pattern with lows generally in the low to mid 70s through Thursday morning, dropping generally into the mid to upper 60s Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 827 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 SHRA and TSRA is winding down over the next 1-2 hours. Towards dawn, some patchy fog is possible; VLD and points along the I-75 corridor have the better chances with guidance pointing to lower vsbys with IFR/LIFR conds likely 09-14Z. Tuesday afternoon isold coverage of convection along the seabreeze boundary and perhaps a few storms moving in from southern Georgia. Added a PROB30 at ECP, TLH, and VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle northeast breezes will prevail through Wednesday, with the daily afternoon seabreeze temporarily disrupting that flow. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from thunderstorms. Cautionary to perhaps advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following a frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms the next two days ahead of our next cold front. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise, expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s through Wednesday. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift across our Florida counties during the afternoon hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected through Wednesday from afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Isolated higher amounts could be possible under any downpours. Drier air filters in over the weekend keeping rain chances around or below 10%. There are currently no riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 91 73 92 / 30 10 10 20 Panama City 74 91 75 92 / 20 20 10 20 Dothan 70 92 71 92 / 10 20 10 10 Albany 71 92 72 91 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 71 91 72 91 / 20 10 10 30 Cross City 72 90 73 90 / 30 30 10 40 Apalachicola 74 87 75 88 / 20 30 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279587 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 819 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue. - A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Most of the convection is near or at the coast and should continue to move offshore over the next few hours. Calm conditions are anticipated overnight, but low clouds may develop overnight and into the early in the morning. A gradual warm up is expected as area of low pressure moves out of the area. Lows will be a degree or two warmer, but afternoon highs will remain fairly the same. Showers and storms return to the area later in the afternoon and evening. No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Showers and storms continue to move offshore with most of the convection dissipating along the way. This trend should continue over the next few hours with VFR conditions prevailing overnight and into the early morning hours. There is a non-zero chance for low clouds to develop going a few hours before sunrise, but confidence is not high enough at this time to add it to the forecast. Chances of showers and storms return to terminals by the late afternoon and into the evening spreading from south to north. Intermittent MVFR/Ifr cigs and vis along with gusty winds possible near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 89 76 90 / 40 40 20 50 FMY 75 90 76 89 / 40 50 30 70 GIF 73 91 74 91 / 40 40 30 60 SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 40 40 30 50 BKV 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 20 50 SPG 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1279584 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 753 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance. Added a Key Message for coastal flooding potential mid to late week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances increase on Tuesday. - 2) A cold front could bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and will be followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. - 3) The threat for coastal flooding will increase mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances increase on Tuesday. Through Tonight: Little change in the overall pattern has occurred during the past 24 hours in regards to an upper low meandering over Florida and deep moisture advecting across the local area with PWATs near 2 inches. Shower activity could linger into early evening hours, but should dissipate within a few hours of sunset. Locations that see rainfall today will be more at risk for patchy to areas of fog late tonight, especially inland for a few hours prior to and around daybreak. Tuesday: The aforementioned upper low across Florida will begin to drift north across the Southeast United States, likely to bring higher chances of showers/thunderstorms locally despite trending weaker well in advance of a longwave trough making way across the Midwest. The uptick in forcing along with modest instability and residing 2+ inch PWATs could support a few stronger thunderstorms during mid-late afternoon into early evening hours, perhaps with some enhancement along/near a seabreeze. Localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding issues are also possible. However, the overall severe weather threat should be on the lower end. KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front could bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and will be followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. The previously mentioned upper low is anticipated to shift north- northeast of the local area, becoming phased with a longwave trough shifting across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States mid-week. A notable cold front is progged to push south into the local as the mid-upper lvl pattern supports digging of the longwave trough across the Southeast. Timing of fropa will remain key in regards to the overall threat for stronger and/or marginally severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Although latest trends suggest cold fropa beginning late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, there could be sufficient time for strong sfc heating to occur within a deeply moist environment across Southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon, leading to a greater risk for stronger and/or marginally severe thunderstorms prior to sunset. Following the front, an inland wedge will set up across the Carolinas and Georgia, favoring cool and drier conditions locally within a north-northeast flow during the second half of the week. Cold air advection and a tightening pressure gradient should lead to breezy conditions post fropa Wednesday and Thursday, with some enhancement possible near coastal areas. In general, highs temps in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s for Southeast SC and low/mid 80s for Southeast GA are most probable into late week. KEY MESSAGE 3: The threat for coastal flooding will increase mid to late week. As a full moon approaches on 9/26, breezy northeast winds Wednesday evening into Friday may result in some coastal flooding issues as tidal departures rise. We will need to keep an eye on the potential starting as early as Wednesday afternoon for coastal Charleston and Colleton counties, expanding southwards to include the remainder of the SE SC coast into SE GA Thursday afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR is expected to prevail through at least the first half of the night. Thereafter, guidance hints that another round of stratus and fog will be possible. The greater chance for occurrence is at KSAV where MVFR has been maintained, though there is potential for IFR or lower. VFR should return mid morning. Brief restrictions in showers/thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, which is currently highlighted with PROB30 groups. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restriction chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday at all terminals with a showers and thunderstorms and a building wedge post fropa Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gusty north-northeast winds are likely to follow at all terminals Wednesday into Thursday as well. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday: A decaying surface high pressure ahead of a slowly approaching cold front will continue the benign marine weather conditions across our local waters. Periodic showers and thunderstorms during this time may be capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning. Wednesday-Friday: A cold front will be pushing through on Wednesday, with a strong surge in northeasterly flow as the pinched pressure gradient (aka the wedge) sets up. Breezy ramp up during the evening hours, with wind gusts in excess of 25 knots have 60-90% chances, so Small Craft Advisories are anticipated. There is also a low chance (20-30%) for Gales to develop on Thursday, for the zones 20+nm offshore. In addition, wave heights of 5-7 ft will likely accompany the breezy winds for areas 15+ nm away from the coast Thursday morning through Friday evening before winds begin to weaken. Saturday: The wedge continues to weaken, further decreasing the wind strength throughout the day. Seas will remain unsettled, with offshore zones (20+nm offshore) seeing 6ft+ waves continuing into the evening hours before decreasing below 6 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279583 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 745 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool weather through at least Tuesday night. Breezy, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. - Monitoring the potential for a strong coastal low to form mid to late week, bringing chances for strong winds, rainfall, and coastal flood/erosion concerns heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool weather through Tuesday night. Breezy, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. Anomalous 1030+ mb high pressure over southeast Ontario Monday, builds eastward into Quebec Tuesday, providing dry and cool weather for Southern New England through at least Tue night. Northeast gradient will maintain breezy conditions, especially across southeast MA, including Cape Cod and Islands. Model soundings here support NE winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times, less wind away from the coastline. Abundant sunshine Monday afternoon, except post frontal strato- cu over southeast MA from departing frontal wave, combined with cool northeast flow over the relatively mild ocean. Mid/high clouds will preclude radiational cooling tonight, but a very dry airmass (dew pts in the 40s and 50s) will be sufficient for min temps to fall into 40s, except low to mid 50s along the coast, including metro Boston, Providence and Hartford. Tuesday, short wave over the OH valley today spreads mid/high clouds into SNE tonight and Tue. However mid level confluent flow over the region will provide sufficient subsidence for dry weather to prevail. These mid/high clouds will yield filtered sunshine Tue. Cooler temps aloft (+7C to +9C) combined with subsidence inversion from 1030+ mb high, will yield another day of cooler than normal highs Tue, with highs only in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degs below normal. KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a strong coastal low to form mid to late week, bringing chances for strong winds, rainfall, and coastal flood/erosion concerns heading into the weekend. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate potential for a strong coastal low to form Wednesday into the later half of the week. While there is still a large amount of uncertainty in the guidance, the overarching trend is indicating the low slowly meanders north into the waters south of Nantucket; however, each subsequent model run has trended the track further east. The ECMWF ensemble is showing about a 50/50 member spread on if the low tracks NW of the 40N/70W benchmark while the GFS ensemble is much more spread, stretching from the DelMarVa coast to Georges Bank, and the Canadian ensemble members are majority far east of the benchmark. Regardless, this system is likely to bring strong winds, rough seas, rain, and the potential for erosion/coastal flooding. It is important to note that the exact track and strength of the low will strongly influence the magnitude of gusts, QPF, and how far inland the rain extends. Highest confidence at this time pertains to winds, especially over the waters. As the low deepens and approaches to the south, the Canadian high over Quebec is also likely to strengthen and expand, leading to a tighter pressure gradient over New England. This will support the development of gusty winds along the south coast, Cape/Islands, and the waters by Wednesday morning... before the arrival of the low. Confidence continues to increase in at least Gale Force winds (34kts/40mph) across the southern waters, and a Gale Watch continues for Tuesday evening through at least Thursday morning. As the low continues to deepen on approach, winds are likely to increase, especially across the outer waters. By Friday night/Saturday morning, the latest ECMWF ensemble shows widespread 20 to 30 percent probabilities of 50 knots (57 mph) across the waters, with a 30 to 40 percent bullseye over Cape Cod Bay. While the winds over land along the south coast, Cape, and Islands throughout the week are more likely to be a touch lighter than the marine winds, they`re still expected to be gusty... more on the order of 25-35 mph along the immediate coast. This prolonged period of gusty northeasterly winds will build rough seas and raise the threat for coastal flooding and erosion, especially for east facing beaches. Latest coastal flooding guidance from the Steven`s Institute shows chances for Nantucket and Boston nearing/entering Action Stage. Given the previously discussed uncertainty in track and strength, confidence remains on the lower end for rainfall totals. Ensemble guidance has ticked up slightly in totals compared to previous runs, with the ECMWF ensemble showing 50 to 70 percent probability for 2"+ in 48 hours (20 to 40 percent for 4"+ in 48 hours) over the Cape and Islands, but the GFS ensemble only shows 30 to 50 percent probability (10 percent for 4"+ in 48 hours). && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Tonight...High confidence. Generally VFF. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt at times across southeast MA terminals. Tuesday...High confidence. Low-end VFR around dawn steadily improves thorughout the day. NE winds 8-15 kts with gusts 22-28 kts. Highest gusts expected across the Cape/Island terminals. KBOS Terminal...high confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. SHRA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High Confidence. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt at times will continue, as strong 1030+ mb high pressure over southeast Ontario on Monday, advects eastward into Quebec. This northeast fetch will yield rough seas on the ocean waters. Dry weather and good vsby prevail. Potential for gale force gusts appear to hold off until Wed and beyond. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 19 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night through Saturday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 20 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for MAZ007-015-016-019>024. RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for RIZ002-004>008. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ235-237-255-256-282-283. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1279581 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 745 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms through Wednesday. Few Strong Storms are Possible, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail. Localized Flooding Possible Due to Slow Storm Movement at Inland Locations - Patchy to Areas of Fog Early Tuesday morning, Mainly Inland. Locally Dense Fog Expected at Times - Strengthening Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine Hazards from Thursday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide Beginning Late Thursday && .UPDATE... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are slowly coming to an end with the loss of daytime heating, with an overall similar night expected tonight as compared to last night. Onshore flow is expected to be just a bit lighter tonight, and therefore expecting fog and low clouds to develop over inland areas after midnight. Otherwise, a muggy and mild night with lows mostly in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms - Strengthening Northeasterly Conditions Wednesday and Wednesday Night Northeasterly winds will bring isolated showers onshore Tuesday morning, with coverage expanding inward through the day as the sea breeze pushes inland. Isolated storms will be possible primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Not a significant strong storm threat, though very high PWATs will result in heavy rain/minor flooding being the primary hazard potential in addition to some gusty downbursts and perhaps some isolated small hail. Above average temperatures in the low 90s inland will continue, with coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Similar high temperatures are expected again on Wednesday. Onshore flow begins to strengthen further on Wednesday as a front approaches as well, increasing precipitation coverage, especially near the east coast. A secondary surge of breezy northeasterlies develop Wednesday Night as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure ridging building over the area. This will keep the winds up overnight but especially closer to the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm over the nearshore waters will make it towards the coast and just onshore at times. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations Thursday and Friday - Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend Northerly steering flow and stronger northeasterly surface winds continue on Thursday and Friday, with drier air infiltrating most of the area both days. The stronger onshore winds will bring back coastal hazards such as gusty winds along the coast and St. Johns river, increased rip current risk, and dangerous surf. Thursday, precipitation chances will be mainly limited to the coast and inland areas generally east of the line from Gainesville to Jacksonville. By Friday, PWATs will dip below 1.5" for the entire area, with only isolated showers expected for the northeast Florida coast. Highs will be in the 80s both days, a little warmer on Thursday. Next weekend looks beautiful, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, mostly sunny skies, and dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Onshore winds begin to calm this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Daytime convection will continue to come to an end over the next 1-2 hours, with the main impacts overnight being areas of FG and low cigs expected, especially inland. Expecting highest impacts at VQQ and GNV in which at least TEMPO IFR is expected. Confidence is lower closer to the coastline depending on how strong the wind stays up overnight, though continued to include at least some mention of BR and low stratus at all terminals. Onshore flow will remain generally weak on Tuesday, with only VCSH included at this time as TSRA chances are generally below 10 percent. && .MARINE... A surface trough and an upper level disturbance will lift northeastward tonight and Tuesday, with lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing over local waters. Wednesday into Wednesday night, strong high pressure well to the north will help push a backdoor cold front south through the area, allowing for another round of showers and thunderstorms, and a surge of northeast winds and building seas. This front will then trigger Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Wednesday night through Friday, with potential for Gale Force Wind Gusts from Thursday to early Friday morning. Breezy winds and elevated seas will slowly subside late Saturday night into Sunday. Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through Tuesday at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Wednesday afternoon, creating a higher end moderate risk at area beaches. A surge of north-northeasterly winds and building surf will arrive at area beaches on Wednesday evening, with a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches from Thursday through at least Saturday. A period of high surf conditions will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday at the northeast FL beaches, when breakers may build to the 5-7 foot range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Onshore flow and poor to fair dispersions are expected on Tuesday before a cool front moves through on Wednesday, bringing a much stronger northeasterly wind surge and moderate to high range changes Wednesday through the rest of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through Thursday, with drier air in place Friday through the weekend. Fog Potential...Patchy early morning inland fog will be possible through Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will be on the rise later this week due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon, officially on Saturday, Sept 26th. A northeast wind surge will develop for the coastal areas on Wednesday which will exacerbate the coastal water levels along the Atlantic coast and eventually into the St Johns River. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during times of high tide beginning with the evening high tide on Thursday and likely continuing during high tide cycles through into the weekend. Minor flooding may become possible within the St. Johns River basin as early as Thursday night, and then through the weekend around times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 90 72 89 / 0 30 10 40 SSI 76 86 75 86 / 30 50 40 60 JAX 72 88 73 88 / 20 40 20 70 SGJ 74 87 74 86 / 20 30 20 60 GNV 71 90 72 90 / 10 40 10 50 OCF 72 91 73 90 / 20 30 20 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279580 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 737 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - An unsettled pattern will continue to produce scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms across the area through Thursday. - A cool front late week will bring lower rain chances and drier air into the weekend. - Breezy northeast winds behind the front will lead to deteriorating beach and boating conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Rest of Today-Wednesday...A stalled upper level low lingers over the Florida peninsula today. This feature is providing enough enhancement to develop scattered to numerous showers and storms along the sea breeze early this afternoon, mainly south of Orlando. Expect this activity to continue westward through this afternoon, clearing into the western half of the peninsula by sunset. Mostly dry conditions then prevail overnight over land areas. However, persistent showers and storms over the Atlantic waters may occasionally drift onshore into coastal areas overnight. The main threats with any storms through this afternoon will be gusty winds to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3". Low temperatures dip into the lower to mid-70s tonight. Patchy fog will be possible over the interior, especially north of Orlando. An upper level trough dropping through the central US will push the low NE and merge with it through Wednesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") and the continued unsettled pattern will maintain higher coverage of showers and storms (40-70%) through mid-week. A few strong storms will remain possible. But, 500 mb temperatures warming from around -8 C today to -5 to -6 C by Wednesday will limit the threat overall. Onshore flow becomes increasingly NNE through the period, but remains around 10 mph or less. Winds overnight become light and variable, so will need to monitor the threat for patchy fog each night, especially over the interior. Otherwise, warm highs continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, which combine with high humidity to produce heat indices 98-102 degrees. Thursday-Monday...A strong low pressure system develops into Thursday morning offshore from the NE US. Meanwhile, the upper level trough digs into Florida, dragging a cool front southward through the peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms again on Thursday (50-70%), mainly along the weakening front. However, will see progressively lower rain chances from north to south into the weekend, as drier air filters into the area. PWATs fall below 1.5" this weekend, leading to PoPs 20-40% or less, highest across southern portions of the forecast area. A tightening pressure gradient will produce breezy and gusty NNE winds behind the front beginning on Thursday. Winds build to 10-15 mph Thursday afternoon and 15-20 mph Friday, with gusts 20-30 mph. The highest winds are forecast along the coast, especially north of the Cape. Breezy conditions linger Saturday, before winds fall to around 10 mph again into early next week. Enhanced onshore flow will lead to poor to hazardous beach conditions this weekend. Slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are forecast, though lower humidity will provide relief from heat indices above 100. Inland locations could even see lows in the 60s by the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially overnight, will remain a threat over the local Atlantic waters through Wednesday. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating conditions persist, with NE winds remaining around 10 kts or less. Seas 1-3 ft. A nor`easter off of the NE US coast will drag a cool front through the local waters Thursday. NE winds increase to 20-25 kts, progressing farther southward into Friday. Winds then remain breezy around 10-15 kts into the first half of the weekend. Higher coverage of showers and storms lingers Thursday, before drier air reduces chances into the weekend. Hazardous seas up to 6-9 ft are forecast to continue into Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Lingering activity along the coast will diminish or push offshore over the next hour or two with activity across the interior earlier having already dissipated or moved out of the area. Have VCTS lingering along the coast through 02Z. Mostly dry overnight, especially across interior sites. Isolated showers and storms may brush across the coast through the overnight. Light and variable winds will become E/NE by late morning to early afternoon and increase to 5-9 KT with the east coast sea breeze. Tuesday, have included VCSH along the coast starting at 15Z and then VCTS starting at 18Z everywhere. Have not included TEMPOs at this time. Have shower and storm activity diminishing by around 00Z Wednesday for MCO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 10 60 MCO 73 91 74 90 / 20 50 20 70 MLB 74 88 75 88 / 20 40 20 60 VRB 73 88 73 88 / 20 50 30 60 LEE 73 91 74 91 / 20 40 20 60 SFB 73 90 74 89 / 10 50 10 70 ORL 74 90 75 90 / 10 50 20 70 FPR 72 89 73 88 / 30 60 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279578 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 741 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An initial round of marine headlines have been issued for portions of the ENC waters for this week`s coastal low. Additional headlines, both land and marine, will likely be needed with future updates. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Coastal low to impact ENC mid to late week with periods of rain, scattered thunderstorms, and a risk of multiple coastal hazards. MARINE: Coastal low to produce hazardous winds and seas mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A complex and initially disorganized surface and upper level pattern today will begin to consolidate into a notable East Coast coastal low mid to late-week, with impacts being felt from the Carolinas north. Aloft, an upper level shortwave will lift north off the Southeast U.S. coast, supporting the development of a weak area of low pressure along a stationary front. Meanwhile, a cold front will continue to slowly sag south from Virginia into North Carolina over the next couple of days. The above-mentioned weak low is then forecast to deepen along the consolidating, and strengthening, frontal/baroclinic zone off the East Coast. Deepening of the low will become more rapid Thursday and Friday as an upper low translates from the Ohio Valley to the Mid- Atlantic Coast. The deepening will also be aided by the entrance region of an upper jet which will reside over the Northern Atlantic. Confidence continue to increase regarding a sub-1000mb low developing offshore during this time, and this is strongly supported by deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance. Because of the blocky nature of the upper level pattern over the Atlantic, there is some uncertainty regarding the eventual track of the low. While confidence is high regarding a notably deep low developing, confidence is lower regarding the magnitude of winds which especially factors in regarding coastal and marine impacts. The most likely scenario at this point is for there to be an initial round of showers and scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday as the above-mentioned cold front moves into the area from the north. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms are then forecast to expand in coverage, and become more widespread, Tuesday night into Wednesday night as lift increases along the moistening frontal zone. During this time, some guidance suggests an area of enhanced lift from the Delmarva region south into NE NC, and this is where the highest rainfall totals are expected. While instability will be waning with time, rainfall totals of 2-3" appear plausible in this area, which could support some minor hydro impacts in poor drainage areas. The strongest winds and greatest risk of coastal impacts is expected Thursday into Friday, especially along the OBX. Persistent northeasterly winds coupled with a longer fetch across the Atlantic should support long-period swell of 10-13s and wave heights of 8- 12ft in the surf zone for beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout. Not only will this create dangerous surf conditions, but this will also present a risk of beach erosion, ocean overwash at vulnerable locations, and coastal flooding (both soundside and oceanside). As mentioned above, the strength and duration of the stronger winds varies some in the guidance depending on the track of the low. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the coastal impacts, and where coastal headlines may be required. Coastal impacts may last beyond Friday. In addition to the coastal impacts, guidance supports a risk of reaching Wind Advisory criteria for portions of the OBX Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions in place over area terminals this evening with a stalled frontal boundary draped from roughly FFA NW into southern VA. Along the front, showers and thunderstorms are ongoing but staying north of PGV. Farther north, large bank of MVFR cigs is in place and is forecast to progress southward through the overnight hours as the front sags through eastern NC overnight into Tues AM. LAMP probabilities show up to a 60-70% of IFR cigs especially after 06z, with a risk of LIFR increasing around dawn. Cigs increase after 13-14z but will likely bounce between VFR and MVFR through the day in post-frontal NE winds. Most sites have a 30-40% chance of prevailing MVFR through 00z. SHRA may begin to develop near the coast Tuesday morning, eventually spreading inland during the day with an accompanying risk of an isolated TSRA. Expanded VCSH mention to all sites but continued to hold off on TSRA mention given low confidence. Outlook: A coastal low will deepen offshore mid to late week supporting periods of RA, SCT TSRA, low CIGs, and breezy NE winds. && .MARINE... A cold front will move slowly south into the northern waters this evening and this should support easterly winds building to 10-15kt. South of the front, light easterly winds of 5-10kt are expected. Winds will continue to build through the day Tuesday as the front settles into the area, and as the gradient along it begins to strengthen. By Tuesday afternoon, most waters are expected to have northeast winds of 10-20kt. Seas of 2-3ft today will build to 3-5ft by Tuesday afternoon. Outlook: A notable coastal low is forecast to impact the area mid to late week with a period of hazardous winds and seas. Guidance differ some on the strength and the track of the low, but confidence continues to increase in widespread gale-force winds for most, if not all, waters, with winds peaking Thursday into Friday. At the peak, the central and northern coastal waters (nearshore and outer) may see gusts of 40-45kt. Additionally, seas of 10-15ft+ are forecast for all outer waters. For the nearshore coastal waters, seas of 8-12ft are likely from Duck to Cape Lookout. South of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are forecast. The longer fetch across the Atlantic should allow wave periods to build to 10-13s by Thursday and Friday. Given the increased confidence, a Gale Watch has been issued for portions of the central and northern coastal waters, as well as the northern rivers and sounds. Gale-force winds may begin as early as Wednesday morning, but most likely will begin Wednesday afternoon and then continue into Friday. It looks like there will be about a 24hr period of 25kt+ winds leading up to the gales, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued leading into the Gale Watch for those same waters. Elsewhere, the Gale Watch is likely to be expanded, but confidence in timing and magnitude is lower. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-150-230-231. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for AMZ131-150-180-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for AMZ152-182. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ154-156. && $$ |
| #1279579 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 644 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage across the northern half of the area. A few stronger storms could produce localized strong to damaging wind gusts. - Rain chances decrease Tuesday before a mostly dry cold front moves through Wednesday, bringing a shift to northerly winds and noticeably lower humidity. - Drier air behind the front will allow for cooler Thursday morning temperatures, especially along and north of I-12, with quiet and dry weather continuing late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today will be the most convectively active period of the short term as the approaching upper trough continues to weaken the mid- level cap that has been in place the last few days. Convective temperatures are generally around 91-92 degrees this afternoon, which most locations should begin reaching around 21z. That timing lines up well with the latest CAM guidance, which has trended towards greater coverage compared to previous runs, particularly across the northern half of the area. Given the improved agreement and higher confidence, PoPs were increased around 21z in those areas. Convection should initially be tied to differential heating and any lingering boundaries before storm-scale outflows increasingly take over. Deep-layer shear remains very weak, so storms should largely remain pulse-type or loosely organized multicells. Even so, strong instability and favorable thermodynamic profiles should support efficient downdraft acceleration with the stronger cores, and an isolated strong to severe downburst cannot be ruled out near peak heating. Damaging wind would be the main concern, though the overall severe threat remains limited by the weak shear and the relatively short-lived nature of individual cells. The CAMs are also fairly consistent in convection winding down quickly this evening, with coverage decreasing after sunset this evening and most activity largely finished around 03z. Tuesday looks noticeably less active as the upper trough pulls farther east and northwesterly flow develops aloft. Enough low- level moisture and instability should remain for isolated afternoon convection, but forcing will be weaker and overall coverage should be lower than today. The better opportunity appears to favor the eastern and northeastern portions of the area where deeper moisture should linger a little longer. Farther west, increasing subsidence and slightly drier air aloft should make convective initiation more difficult. With less rain and cloud coverage, temperatures should respond accordingly and remain quite warm through the afternoon. By Wednesday, attention turns to a cold front dropping south through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This does not look like a particularly active frontal passage locally, as surface high pressure builds quickly behind the boundary and deeper moisture is steadily displaced southward. Any meaningful precipitation signal remains weak, so the frontal passage will likely be easier to identify through a wind shift and falling dewpoints than through shower activity. The front should work through much of the area during the day and evening, with noticeably drier air beginning to filter into the northern half of the CWA by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The biggest change Thursday will be the arrival of a noticeably drier air mass behind Wednesday`s front rather than any substantial cooldown. Northerly to northeasterly flow will continue advecting lower dewpoints into the area, and guidance has become more convincing that the drier air will reach further south by Thursday morning. With that in mind, overnight lows were nudged downward along and north of I-12 where lower dewpoints and better radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall more efficiently. The New Orleans metro and immediate coastal areas should remain somewhat warmer given the usual urban and marine influences. Upper ridging building overhead will otherwise keep conditions dry, with warm afternoon temperatures but noticeably lower humidity. The ridge should remain the dominant feature through the remainder of the long-term period, keeping convection largely suppressed and resulting in a fairly quiet late-week forecast. Surface high pressure will gradually shift east Friday and into the weekend, allowing easterly to southeasterly flow and a slow return of low- level moisture. Humidity should therefore begin creeping back upward by Saturday and Sunday, but moisture recovery appears gradual enough that any convection should remain isolated at best through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Prevailing VFR at all terminals right now, though some thunderstorms remain in the area and may impact HDC, MSY, and NEW. Brief low ceilings and visibility issues is possible as convection moves through. Tuesday can expect VFR conditions as convection chances are very limited. Not going to rule out a stray storm or two impacting a terminal, but not enough confidence to include PROB30s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the first half of the week, with light winds and relatively low seas outside of scattered thunderstorms. Convection will be most numerous this afternoon and evening, and any stronger storms could produce brief periods of gusty and erratic along with locally higher waves. Winds should remain fairly light Tuesday before a cold front moves through the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Behind the front, northerly to northeasterly flow will strengthen as high pressure builds across the land, with the highest seas likely occurring late Wednesday night into Thursday, particularly the over the open Gulf waters. Conditions should gradually improve late in the week as the pressure gradient relaxes and the surface high shifts east. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279576 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 629 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Highest potential of a shower/storm will be in our northern counties and along the seabreeze in our southern counties. - Hot temperatures with daily isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms through midweek. - Less humid after midweek following a backdoor frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today is the final full day of astronomical summer and Mother Nature is going to make sure we get our money`s worth as temperatures remain well above normal. Our normal high temperature this time of the year is actually in the low 90s...but most of us will see temperatures top out in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Some of you will hit the weather lottery though and get a brief reprieve from the heat in the form of isolated showers/storms this afternoon. The CAMs (including me) still insist on popcorn convection beginning around 2pm along the sea breeze and a few hours later along a lingering boundary over portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. PW values are generally peaking around or just over the 75th percentile (~1.80"), so it wouldn`t surprise me to see a few pockets of 1-2" rainfall occuring in a relatively short period of time. Showers/storms will gradually dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Do you remember...the 21st night of September? We actually will be chasing the clouds away as the overnight hours will feature mostly clear skies...but still fairly humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s. There may be a few nights to remember later in the week though! The above normal temperatures and daily rain chances continue through midweek, and this is probably as good of a time as any to mention that the autumnal equinox is tomorrow (Tuesday) at 7:04 PM CDT. Astronomical fall begins with *checks notes* temperatures in the mid to upper 90s...yeah that`s about right. Ridge axis and a developing mid-level high dominate the forecast Tuesday and beyond, which means hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the week...right...RIGHT?! Not so fast, my friend! A trough sweeping through the eastern half of the country will push in a backdoor frontal boundary (a front moving in from the northeast) late Wednesday/early Thursday. Drier air filters in behind this front that lasts going into the early part of the weekend, so low temperatures for some of you (mainly northern areas) will feature the upper 60s/low 70s once again. High temperatures will also be slightly "cooler" as we trade out the upper 90s for the low to mid 90s. Of course we can throw in the cliche "bUt iT`S a DrY hEaT", but 90s are still 90s. We`re in the realm of this being better than nothing, but it leaves us longing for that first true front...which we`ll briefly talk about at the end of this discussion. Moisture/humidity returns on Sunday leading to the return of rain chances into the forecast. Before we get into our brief beyond the forecast period outlook on a potential real cold front, let`s start with the usual disclaimer: it`s too early to lock in anything...remember that we are looking at trends this far out, so it`s not an official forecast. Looking at both the GFS and Euro ensembles, there is still a statistically notable number of members that reflect below normal temperatures around the first weekend of October. Now again this doesn`t mean that this WILL happen, but it is within the realistic realm of possibilities for once. This is a lot better than the 0% potential we`ve had over the past five-ish months! Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR will persist through the overnight hours. Patchy fog is possible at KCLL and KCXO around sunrise as well as along the coast. There is again a chance of showers and thunderstorms in generally the same areas Tuesday afternoon/evening as today, however this is just beyond the current TAF period. Light winds will continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds today will become more northeasterly to easterly beginning on Tuesday. Winds may be consistently moderate enough to warrant periods of caution flags at times, especially around midweek. Seas will remain mainly in the 1-3 ft range through the end of the work week, then increasing to 2-4 ft over the weekend. Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms persist through midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 98 76 98 / 30 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 78 97 79 96 / 0 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 92 83 91 / 0 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279573 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Low (20-35%) chance of showers and storms continue this week. - Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 NBM has finally joined the rest of the group with low (15-30%) daily rain chances through this week, mainly along the coast and over the Coastal Plains. A few showers and storms could develop along the afternoon seabreeze each afternoon, which could push showers a bit further inland, so we will continue to monitor development. Temperatures will be above average through the week (surprise, surprise). The good news is that heat index values will generally remain below 110 across the area. Even so, it is important that we all continue to practice heat safety: take breaks when outside, drink plenty of water, and look before you lock. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected across all sites through this TAF cycle except for ALI and VCT, where localized fog could develop between 10-14z. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Winds will be light overnight and increase once again tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light to gentle (BF2-3) breezes with seas around 2 feet with continue through Wednesday. Winds increase slightly to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze, with a corresponding increase in seas to 3- 4 feet later this week. A low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the weekend and into next week. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30% across all of South Texas Thursday through the period. With winds being light, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 20 10 Victoria 74 100 74 101 / 0 20 10 30 Laredo 76 100 75 99 / 10 20 10 20 Alice 74 96 74 95 / 0 30 0 10 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 76 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 76 97 76 95 / 0 30 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 91 / 0 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279572 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 727 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast challenges tonight include the potential for inland low stratus and fog to develop late, and also hammering out precisely when offshore showers will move onshore. MOS and NBM blends have performed poorly the last two nights with fog, overpredicting its coverage. Moisture depth is better tonight with light easterly flow well-established, however slowly increasing boundary layer winds late tonight may lead to low stratus rather than fog. This potential will be monitored throughout the evening. The 18z RRFS is considerably faster than the 12z HREF or 22z NBM with the onset of showers tonight across the coastal Cape Fear region. I`ve maintained the slower timing in-line with our previous forecast with 20-40 percent chances sliding onshore by daybreak. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday will give way to cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday will give way to cooler weather. Previous forecast remains on track for this week with guidance showing good agreement on an upr-level trough diving into the Mid Atlantic during the mid week period, leading to elevated chances for rain (50-60% PoPs) Tuesday through Thursday. Not expecting enough precip to put a dent into the drought, but isolated pockets of heavy rain are possible on Tuesday...the Weather Predication Center has a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall over part of the area. Environment is not really supportive of strong or severe storms, so while lightning will be a low risk, severe weather potential is very low. Thereafter, the upr-level low will cut off east of the Mid Atlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the area, leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light winds and VFR conditions should continue through about 08z before there inland conditions begin to deteriorate. There is a moderate to high potential for IFR ceilings and/or visibility to develop at KFLO after 09z Tuesday. A moderate potential exists for similar impacts at KLBT. Coastal airports should remain VFR although there is a low potential for spotty showers to push onshore before daybreak with brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities possible. After daybreak, clusters of showers and possibly thunderstorms will spread slowly westward across the area. The highest potential for impacts is expected between 14-19z at the coastal airports. Inland airports will have a low to moderate potential for impacts mainly after 18z. Extended Outlook...There is a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in showers/thunderstorms/rain through Thursday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least Tuesday night with a fairly weak pressure gradient over the area. A low pressure system will develop offshore starting mid week leading to likely SCA conditions late Wednesday through Friday with even some gale gusts possible, mainly over the 20-60 NM waters, depending on how close to the coast the low develops and how quickly it strengthens. For now, expect mainly SCA headlines. An improving trend then for marine conditions into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279571 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 617 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 607 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. - A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 As we head into the evening, scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms stretched southwest along the western border of the forecast area. Enough instability from the day`s heating remains in place, for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type severe storms. Am expecting this convection to slowly decrease in coverage and strength through the evening hours. No updates needed at this time. /16 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The area remains in a northeasterly upper flow pattern between an upper ridge to the west and an upper low over central Florida. The upper ridge will continue to move westward and weaken while the upper low gets absorbed into the upper level flow and moves northeast by Tuesday. Precipitable water values continue to increase as Atlantic moisture moves into the area around the upper low. The weakening ridge along with increasing moisture will allow scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms to develop this afternoon and move southwest. The ridge rebuilds to our west Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances decreasing. A weak front moves through the area late Wednesday into Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area. The lack of significant moisture ahead of the front along with the upper ridge will keep conditions dry as the front moves through. A dry northwest upper flow continues into the weekend. Above normal temps in the low to mid 90s continue through midweek before some slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front late in the week. This will return high temps to back near/slightly above normal. The drier airmass will allow lows to drop into the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast for the end of the week into the weekend. /13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 General VFR conditions were noted over most of the forecast area at 23z/6pm, with drops into low/mid MVFR levels in convection along the western edge of the forecast area. This convection may bring locally gusty winds and may affect traffic over this portion of the forecast area through the evening hours. The rest of the forecast will see the VFR conditions last through the overnight hours, and area-wide after the western convection dies out. Tuesday will see general VFR conditions, with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms in the afternoon bringing local drops in conditions to MVFR levels. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 10 Pensacola 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 Destin 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 71 95 70 93 / 30 20 10 0 Camden 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 20 0 Crestview 70 92 71 93 / 20 20 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279570 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Rain chances will increase tomorrow and Wednesday and linger through the weekend - Temperatures remain warm but ease off a few degrees from widespread areas of low 100s along/west I-69 E to mostly upper 90s by Tuesday. - Pockets of extreme risks of heat-related illnesses (level 4/4) are likely to continue for more populated portions of the RGV/Rio Grande Plains through this week while the rest of the region experiences moderate to major risks (level 2/4 and 3/4). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Will continue to see a somewhat unsettled weather pattern through the forecast period. High pressure will prevail over Deep South Texas with easterly fetch bringing in excess moisture to the region, leading to low rain chances early this week, mainly along the sea breeze. As we head into mid to late week, a surface boundary will move into central Texas enhancing deep moisture across the region leading to more scattered to numerous sea breeze showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances Tuesday will be 20-40% increasing to around 30-50% Wednesday through Friday. Rain chances will taper off this weekend into next week. Heat Risk will remain Moderate to Extreme over the next week, though increased cloud cover and/or showers and thunderstorms could bring a little relief. Temperatures will still remain above normal into mid to upper 90s to low triple digits though Wednesday through Friday could struggle to reach the triple digits with excess cloudcover and rain chances. Heat indices will peak each afternoon between 105-110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light to moderate winds with breezy gusts and clear to partly cloudy skies. Convection is possible, but will be too isolated to warrant a mention in the current issuance of TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally favorable conditions will prevail with light to moderate easterly winds with seas around 2-3 ft and 6-7 second periods. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 96 / 10 30 30 50 HARLINGEN 76 99 76 98 / 0 30 30 50 MCALLEN 79 101 79 99 / 0 40 30 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 77 99 / 10 40 20 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 10 30 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 10 30 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1279567 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 629 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Ensemble and global solutions remain in fair agreement in depicting an upper-lvl low lingering around the Florida west coast through the rest of today, then gradually migrating northeast tomorrow. It will continue to influence the area with a flow pattern very favorable for deep moisture to keep streaming across SoFlo. MFL 12Z sounding data confirms PWATs above 2 inches (2.18), and model soundings keep values in the 2.1-2.4" through the short term. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours, with best chances along sea breeze boundaries. Subsequent outflow boundary collisions from early thunderstorms may also produce additional convection that could last into the evening hours, especially along the east coast. 500mb temps remain in the -7C to - 8C, so a few strong storms can`t be ruled out. The greater concern remains in the potential for slow-moving, or even stationary downpours, resulting in localized flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected, and up to 4" in isolated cases. This may result in urban flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. WPC continues to keep the east coast metro areas under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the rest of today and Tuesday. Similar forecast scenario for Tuesday, except for the departure of the aforementioned low, which will help in warming up by one or two degrees the temperatures aloft. This may help in having less stronger storms, but still expecting widespread coverage in the afternoon (max POPs in the 70% range). Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 70s, then afternoon highs on Tuesday will again reach the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day. Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 SE winds will become L/V after 00-01Z. Passing showers and storms could still bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR across the Atlantic terminals this evening, which will be handled with TEMPOS as necessary. Winds resume from the SE after 15-16Z, but remain weak, except for westerly breeze at APF with Gulf breezes. Another round of thunderstorms is likely Tuesday afternoon with PROB30 in place for all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 88 77 87 / 30 70 50 90 West Kendall 76 87 76 87 / 30 80 50 90 Opa-Locka 76 88 76 87 / 30 70 50 90 Homestead 76 88 76 88 / 40 70 60 90 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 76 87 / 40 70 50 90 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 77 88 / 30 70 50 90 Pembroke Pines 76 88 76 87 / 30 70 50 90 West Palm Beach 75 88 76 88 / 30 80 40 80 Boca Raton 76 88 76 88 / 40 70 50 80 Naples 76 88 76 88 / 60 70 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279563 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 426 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool weather through at least Tuesday night. Breezy, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. - Monitoring the potential for a strong coastal low to form mid to late week, bringing chances for strong winds, rainfall, and coastal flood/erosion concerns heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool weather through Tuesday night. Breezy, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. Anomalous 1030+ mb high pressure over southeast Ontario Monday, builds eastward into Quebec Tuesday, providing dry and cool weather for Southern New England through at least Tue night. Northeast gradient will maintain breezy conditions, especially across southeast MA, including Cape Cod and Islands. Model soundings here support NE winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times, less wind away from the coastline. Abundant sunshine Monday afternoon, except post frontal strato- cu over southeast MA from departing frontal wave, combined with cool northeast flow over the relatively mild ocean. Mid/high clouds will preclude radiational cooling tonight, but a very dry airmass (dew pts in the 40s and 50s) will be sufficient for min temps to fall into 40s, except low to mid 50s along the coast, including metro Boston, Providence and Hartford. Tuesday, short wave over the OH valley today spreads mid/high clouds into SNE tonight and Tue. However mid level confluent flow over the region will provide sufficient subsidence for dry weather to prevail. These mid/high clouds will yield filtered sunshine Tue. Cooler temps aloft (+7C to +9C) combined with subsidence inversion from 1030+ mb high, will yield another day of cooler than normal highs Tue, with highs only in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degs below normal. KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a strong coastal low to form mid to late week, bringing chances for strong winds, rainfall, and coastal flood/erosion concerns heading into the weekend. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate potential for a strong coastal low to form Wednesday into the later half of the week. While there is still a large amount of uncertainty in the guidance, the overarching trend is indicating the low slowly meanders north into the waters south of Nantucket; however, each subsequent model run has trended the track further east. The ECMWF ensemble is showing about a 50/50 member spread on if the low tracks NW of the 40N/70W benchmark while the GFS ensemble is much more spread, stretching from the DelMarVa coast to Georges Bank, and the Canadian ensemble members are majority far east of the benchmark. Regardless, this system is likely to bring strong winds, rough seas, rain, and the potential for erosion/coastal flooding. It is important to note that the exact track and strength of the low will strongly influence the magnitude of gusts, QPF, and how far inland the rain extends. Highest confidence at this time pertains to winds, especially over the waters. As the low deepens and approaches to the south, the Canadian high over Quebec is also likely to strengthen and expand, leading to a tighter pressure gradient over New England. This will support the development of gusty winds along the south coast, Cape/Islands, and the waters by Wednesday morning... before the arrival of the low. Confidence continues to increase in at least Gale Force winds (34kts/40mph) across the southern waters, and a Gale Watch continues for Tuesday evening through at least Thursday morning. As the low continues to deepen on approach, winds are likely to increase, especially across the outer waters. By Friday night/Saturday morning, the latest ECMWF ensemble shows widespread 20 to 30 percent probabilities of 50 knots (57 mph) across the waters, with a 30 to 40 percent bullseye over Cape Cod Bay. While the winds over land along the south coast, Cape, and Islands throughout the week are more likely to be a touch lighter than the marine winds, they`re still expected to be gusty... more on the order of 25-35 mph along the immediate coast. This prolonged period of gusty northeasterly winds will build rough seas and raise the threat for coastal flooding and erosion, especially for east facing beaches. Latest coastal flooding guidance from the Steven`s Institute shows chances for Nantucket and Boston nearing/entering Action Stage. Given the previously discussed uncertainty in track and strength, confidence remains on the lower end for rainfall totals. Ensemble guidance has ticked up slightly in totals compared to previous runs, with the ECMWF ensemble showing 50 to 70 percent probability for 2"+ in 48 hours (20 to 40 percent for 4"+ in 48 hours) over the Cape and Islands, but the GFS ensemble only shows 30 to 50 percent probability (10 percent for 4"+ in 48 hours). && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Today...High confidence forecast. VFR conditions throughout the region at 17z, except VFR cigs over southeast MA, including Cape and Islands. Trend is for VFR to overspread all regions later today and tonight, but MVFR cigs may return Tue across southeast MA, as a reinforcing surge of cool air aloft overspreads this area on NE flow. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt at times across southeast MA terminals. KBOS Terminal...high confidence in TAF. VFR and dry weather, with NE winds 10-15G20 kt at times. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR and dry weather with a modest NE wind 10-15 kt, gusting up to 20 kt at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. SHRA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High Confidence. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt at times will continue, as strong 1030+ mb high pressure over southeast Ontario on Monday, advects eastward into Quebec. This northeast fetch will yield rough seas on the ocean waters. Dry weather and good vsby prevail. Potential for gale force gusts appear to hold off until Wed and beyond. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 19 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night through Saturday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 20 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MAZ007-015-016-019>024. RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for RIZ002-004>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ235-237-255-256-282-283. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1279562 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 232 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. - A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend. && .AVIATION UPDATE... Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Provided amendments for sea breeze convection at KMOB, KBFM, and KPNS until 23z. Isolated convection has initiated along sea breeze convergence, as daytime heating is reaching its peak. Activity is expected to be sporadic before tapering off into the evening hours. Otherwise the forecast remains as expected. /KL && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The area remains in a northeasterly upper flow pattern between an upper ridge to the west and an upper low over central Florida. The upper ridge will continue to move westward and weaken while the upper low gets absorbed into the upper level flow and moves northeast by Tuesday. Precipitable water values continue to increase as Atlantic moisture moves into the area around the upper low. The weakening ridge along with increasing moisture will allow scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms to develop this afternoon and move southwest. The ridge rebuilds to our west Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances decreasing. A weak front moves through the area late Wednesday into Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area. The lack of significant moisture ahead of the front along with the upper ridge will keep conditions dry as the front moves through. A dry northwest upper flow continues into the weekend. Above normal temps in the low to mid 90s continue through midweek before some slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front late in the week. This will return high temps to back near/slightly above normal. The drier airmass will allow lows to drop into the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast for the end of the week into the weekend. /13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Storms coverage is more likely from southeast Mississippi to west central Alabama, with uncertainty if any storm clusters can push southward towards the gulf coast with confidence being too low at this time to include in the TAF. Southerly winds will calm overnight, before another morning of northeast to easterly flow is expected. /KL && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 10 Pensacola 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 Destin 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 71 95 70 93 / 30 20 10 0 Camden 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 20 0 Crestview 70 92 71 93 / 20 20 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279561 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 333 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to the low 100s. - Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or two are also possible. - Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The closed upper low over the eastern Gulf continues to diffuse today into tomorrow as a shortwave moving across the Tennessee Valley pulls it northeast on Tuesday. This will result in below normal PoPs Tuesday across most of the area as forcing for ascent moves east-northeast. Convection will look to be forced primarily through the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. On Wednesday a frontal system approaches from the north but gets hung up across central GA/AL as its accompanying shortwave lifts north and flattens out. Forcing for showers and storms on Wednesday will come from a residual PV Streamer moving east across the region as its aforementioned shortwave flattens out, potentially aided by the sea breeze. Gusty winds and brief heavy downpours will be possible. Wednesday night into Thursday a transition occurs where a more potent shortwave dives southeast reinforcing an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, pushing the aforementioned frontal system south through central FL. This will allow prevailing NW flow aloft and north to northeast flow at the surface as surface high pressure builds across central CONUS. This pattern will effectively squash rain chances Thursday through Sunday to 10% or less, with near nil chances this weekend as drier northerly air filters into the region. Dew points currently in the upper 60s to mid 70s will drop after Thursday into the mid 50s to mid 60s Friday through Sunday, leading to pleasant weather conditions this weekend. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s through Wednesday, Thursday through Sunday highs will look to be in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows follow a similar pattern with lows generally in the low to mid 70s through Thursday morning, dropping generally into the mid to upper 60s Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A field of SCT to locally BKN fair weather cumulus covers the entire region. Through the afternoon, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop most anywhere, though convection will somewhat favor the I-75 corridor (including VLD) and the Panhandle seabreeze zone (including ECP). Confidence in thunder is low enough to have removed TS from the TAFs, going instead with VCSH this afternoon and evening. However, thunder is still an outside possibility. For low stratus and fog near sunrise Tuesday, guidance points to VLD being near the western edge of a larger area over SE Georgia. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle northeast breezes will prevail through Wednesday, with the daily afternoon seabreeze temporarily disrupting that flow. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from thunderstorms. Cautionary to perhaps advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following a frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms the next two days ahead of our next cold front. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise, expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s through Wednesday. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift across our Florida counties during the afternoon hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected through Wednesday from afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Isolated higher amounts could be possible under any downpours. Drier air filters in over the weekend keeping rain chances around or below 10%. There are currently no riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 91 73 92 / 30 10 10 20 Panama City 74 91 75 92 / 20 20 10 20 Dothan 70 92 71 92 / 10 20 10 10 Albany 71 92 72 91 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 71 91 72 91 / 20 10 10 30 Cross City 72 90 73 90 / 30 30 10 40 Apalachicola 74 87 75 88 / 20 30 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279560 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 324 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Ensemble and global solutions remain in fair agreement in depicting an upper-lvl low lingering around the Florida west coast through the rest of today, then gradually migrating northeast tomorrow. It will continue to influence the area with a flow pattern very favorable for deep moisture to keep streaming across SoFlo. MFL 12Z sounding data confirms PWATs above 2 inches (2.18), and model soundings keep values in the 2.1-2.4" through the short term. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours, with best chances along sea breeze boundaries. Subsequent outflow boundary collisions from early thunderstorms may also produce additional convection that could last into the evening hours, especially along the east coast. 500mb temps remain in the -7C to - 8C, so a few strong storms can`t be ruled out. The greater concern remains in the potential for slow-moving, or even stationary downpours, resulting in localized flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected, and up to 4" in isolated cases. This may result in urban flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. WPC continues to keep the east coast metro areas under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the rest of today and Tuesday. Similar forecast scenario for Tuesday, except for the departure of the aforementioned low, which will help in warming up by one or two degrees the temperatures aloft. This may help in having less stronger storms, but still expecting widespread coverage in the afternoon (max POPs in the 70% range). Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 70s, then afternoon highs on Tuesday will again reach the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day. Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 SE winds remain light to moderate in the 5-10 kt range across the east coast terminals, while the afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is expected again this afternoon at APF. TEMPOs remain in place for the east coast terminals as chances of showers and thunderstorms favor those. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. Winds will become L/V once again across all terminals after 01-02Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 88 77 87 / 30 70 50 90 West Kendall 76 87 76 87 / 30 80 50 90 Opa-Locka 76 88 76 87 / 30 70 50 90 Homestead 76 88 76 88 / 40 70 60 90 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 76 87 / 40 70 50 90 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 77 88 / 30 70 50 90 Pembroke Pines 76 88 76 87 / 30 70 50 90 West Palm Beach 75 88 76 88 / 30 80 40 80 Boca Raton 76 88 76 88 / 40 70 50 80 Naples 76 88 76 88 / 60 70 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279559 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 316 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An initial round of marine headlines have been issued for portions of the ENC waters for this week`s coastal low. Additional headlines, both land and marine, will likely be needed with future updates. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Coastal low to impact ENC mid to late week with periods of rain, scattered thunderstorms, and a risk of multiple coastal hazards. MARINE: Coastal low to produce hazardous winds and seas mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A complex and initially disorganized surface and upper level pattern today will begin to consolidate into a notable East Coast coastal low mid to late-week, with impacts being felt from the Carolinas north. Aloft, an upper level shortwave will lift north off the Southeast U.S. coast, supporting the development of a weak area of low pressure along a stationary front. Meanwhile, a cold front will continue to slowly sag south from Virginia into North Carolina over the next couple of days. The above-mentioned weak low is then forecast to deepen along the consolidating, and strengthening, frontal/baroclinic zone off the East Coast. Deepening of the low will become more rapid Thursday and Friday as an upper low translates from the Ohio Valley to the Mid- Atlantic Coast. The deepening will also be aided by the entrance region of an upper jet which will reside over the Northern Atlantic. Confidence continue to increase regarding a sub-1000mb low developing offshore during this time, and this is strongly supported by deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance. Because of the blocky nature of the upper level pattern over the Atlantic, there is some uncertainty regarding the eventual track of the low. While confidence is high regarding a notably deep low developing, confidence is lower regarding the magnitude of winds which especially factors in regarding coastal and marine impacts. The most likely scenario at this point is for there to be an initial round of showers and scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday as the above-mentioned cold front moves into the area from the north. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms are then forecast to expand in coverage, and become more widespread, Tuesday night into Wednesday night as lift increases along the moistening frontal zone. During this time, some guidance suggests an area of enhanced lift from the Delmarva region south into NE NC, and this is where the highest rainfall totals are expected. While instability will be waning with time, rainfall totals of 2-3" appear plausible in this area, which could support some minor hydro impacts in poor drainage areas. The strongest winds and greatest risk of coastal impacts is expected Thursday into Friday, especially along the OBX. Persistent northeasterly winds coupled with a longer fetch across the Atlantic should support long-period swell of 10-13s and wave heights of 8- 12ft in the surf zone for beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout. Not only will this create dangerous surf conditions, but this will also present a risk of beach erosion, ocean overwash at vulnerable locations, and coastal flooding (both soundside and oceanside). As mentioned above, the strength and duration of the stronger winds varies some in the guidance depending on the track of the low. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the coastal impacts, and where coastal headlines may be required. Coastal impacts may last beyond Friday. In addition to the coastal impacts, guidance supports a risk of reaching Wind Advisory criteria for portions of the OBX Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail into at least early this evening, along with a reduced risk of SHRA and TSRA. Later this evening and into tonight, increasing low-level moisture is expected to support an increased risk of IFR, or lower, CIGs. A period of LIFR CIGs is possible during this time as well. CIGs are then forecast to rise some (IFR/MVFR) during the day Tuesday, but it appears likely that sub-VFR conditions will prevail through the day Tuesday. SHRA may begin to develop near the coast Tuesday morning, eventually spreading inland during the day with an accompanying risk of TSRA. Confidence is too low to mention TSRA in the TAFs for now, but this may need to be added in later forecasts. Outlook: A coastal low will deepen offshore mid to late week supporting periods of RA, SCT TSRA, low CIGs, and breezy NE winds. && .MARINE... A cold front will move slowly south into the northern waters this evening and this should support easterly winds building to 10-15kt. South of the front, light easterly winds of 5-10kt are expected. Winds will continue to build through the day Tuesday as the front settles into the area, and as the gradient along it begins to strengthen. By Tuesday afternoon, most waters are expected to have northeast winds of 10-20kt. Seas of 2-3ft today will build to 3-5ft by Tuesday afternoon. Outlook: A notable coastal low is forecast to impact the area mid to late week with a period of hazardous winds and seas. Guidance differ some on the strength and the track of the low, but confidence continues to increase in widespread gale-force winds for most, if not all, waters, with winds peaking Thursday into Friday. At the peak, the central and northern coastal waters (nearshore and outer) may see gusts of 40-45kt. Additionally, seas of 10-15ft+ are forecast for all outer waters. For the nearshore coastal waters, seas of 8-12ft are likely from Duck to Cape Lookout. South of Cape Lookout, seas of 4-8ft are forecast. The longer fetch across the Atlantic should allow wave periods to build to 10-13s by Thursday and Friday. Given the increased confidence, a Gale Watch has been issued for portions of the central and northern coastal waters, as well as the northern rivers and sounds. Gale-force winds may begin as early as Wednesday morning, but most likely will begin Wednesday afternoon and then continue into Friday. It looks like there will be about a 24hr period of 25kt+ winds leading up to the gales, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued leading into the Gale Watch for those same waters. Elsewhere, the Gale Watch is likely to be expanded, but confidence in timing and magnitude is lower. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-150-230-231. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for AMZ131-150-180-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for AMZ152-182. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ154-156. && $$ |
| #1279558 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning. WPC introduced a Slight ERO for roughly the western half of the area for Tuesday. Lowered high temperatures further on Wednesday and Thursday as cold air damming sets up across the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and storms tonight into Tuesday as a slow- moving front lingers across the area. 2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. 3) Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for showers and storms tonight into Tuesday as a slow-moving front lingers across the area. This afternoon, a nearly stationary boundary is situated along or just south of the VA/NC border. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies have developed for areas just north of the front with northeasterly flow taking hold. As expected there is a significant temperature gradient across the forecast area, with readings in the upper 60s across far NE portions of the area (Ocean City) to around 90 across our far southern locations. A majority of the area is seeing temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. As for the severe weather threat this afternoon/evening, SPC still has western portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, but the best chances for any stronger or severe storms is likely across our far SW (Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Brunswick) where we have seen the most sun/have the most instability. Showers and storms should increase in coverage later this afternoon into this evening, becoming more widespread during the overnight hours. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone. On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35 to up to 45 mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. WPC has highlighted the western half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO. Highs will range from the upper 60 N-NW to the low-mid 80s across southern portions of the area. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the mid 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35+ mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45 mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through at least Thursday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren`t expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for even some upper 40s well inland. Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it still appears that it will be just far enough from our area that we may have a pleasant weekend for most of the area, but that definitely could change as the details of the low`s placement come to light. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below). KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area starting Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide as widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. Tidal anomalies will then significantly rise on Wednesday due to strong persistent NE winds. Minor flooding is likely with locally moderate flooding as early as the Wednesday morning high tide for site along the southern and western side of the Ches. Bay, tidal James and York Rivers, and the Atlantic coast. The Wednesday evening high tide is then forecast to see higher water levels with widespread moderate to locally major flooding. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Coastal FLood Watches have been issued for a large majority of the tidal area beginning Wednesday evening for most and Wednesday morning for tidal southern Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Impactful tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Monday... This afternoon, a cold front has dropped south across most of the area and is currently situated just south of the VA/NC border. North of the front, widespread MVFR CIGs have developed with even some patchy IFR CIGs across far NE portions of the area. Winds north of the front are generally N to NE and averaging ~8 to 10 knots (locally higher along the coast). ECG is the only site currently just south of the front and is currently seeing VFR CIGs. Scattered showers or storms are possible in the vicinity of ECG this afternoon, but confidence is low on if these will actually impact the terminal. MVFR CIGs continue to become more widespread through this evening and tonight, with IFR CIGs likely developing across the VA Piedmont over to the MD Eastern Shore, with the best potential at RIC and SBY. SHRA and/or BR also becomes more widespread tonight into Tuesday, leading to the potential for VSBY restrictions. IFR CIGs likely hold strong at RIC and SBY through much of, if not all of the day Tuesday with widespread MVFR elsewhere. NE winds become gusty along the immediate coast (20-25 knots) in the later morning-afternoon. Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island. - SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches remain in effect for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River, extended in time through Friday morning. Gale Watches for the ocean waters off the NC coast have been issued from Wednesday through Friday morning. - Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front bisecting the coastal waters near the VA/NC state border this afternoon. Behind the cold front, winds have shifted out of the NE and increased to 10-15 kt (with a few gusts to 20 kt in the northern coastal waters). The front will continue pushing south this evening, before stalling south of the area. The strong CAA/wind with the front will be lagged, but NE winds will begin the increase to strong NE winds that will cause dangerous marine conditions. But this evening/tonight, NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south causing seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. SCAs remain in effect north of Parramore Island for the increased seas, beginning this evening. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for sustained 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to sustained 20-25 kt south and Ches. Bay/25-30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn. An impressive 1035+ mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are expected to occur Wed night through Thu night from the pressure gradient increasing between the high and deepening offshore low. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Gale Watches remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James river, and coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border, with the ocean waters now in effect through early Fri morning (there is potential for another expansion in time). Gale Watches have been issued for the ocean waters south of the VA/NC state border and the Currituck Sound from Wed afternoon through Fri morning. Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for MDZ024. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ082>084-089-090-099-100-518-520-523- 524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ097-098-525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ633-658-688. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Friday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for ANZ656-686. && $$ |
| #1279557 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 307 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible at times tonight. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday morning. - Rain chances will increase further by the middle of the week as tropical moisture spreads into the area. - Drier air associated with a cold front will arrive late week and into the weekend will bring a lower risk of excessive rainfall, though some rain chances will linger. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A broken line of showers and thunderstorms extends from the Straits of Florida waters south of the Dry Tortugas, along and north of the island chain. Individual movement of cells has been generally to northeast. The line itself continues to wax and wane with activity but shows a general downward trend. Stronger activity will be found on the western end of this line over the next couple of hours. As we go into the late afternoon and early evening we may see a brief lull in showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, watching for southerly flow to advect any lingering convection from Cuba northward across the Keys. This will be accompanied by a wind surge as breezes are expected to freshen to gentle to moderate during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A broken line of convection continues to hover very near the island chain and airport terminals. The general trend has been for this line to gradually dwindle. Will keep mentions of VCSH in for another couple of hours, then expecting a brief lull during the late afternoon and early evening. Watching for a renewed surge of convection later tonight originating from Cuba. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The upper level low that has dominated our weather pattern over the past several days still remains stalled just off the coast of west central Florida near the Tampa Bay area, though the influence of this feature will finally start to wane by the end of the day. For now, its presence is still felt as GOES-19 satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic flow to the cloud pattern across the Sunshine State. The 00Z KEY RAOB measured a deep southwesterly flow regime throughout the vertical column with little inhibition and abundant moisture with PWATs of 2.11 inches, though mid level temps were notably warmer than recent days at -4.7 C. Given that the proximity of the upper low is still close enough to our region to supply continued forcing for ascent, another active day of convection is generally expected to occur across the Florida Keys with today`s setup possibly favoring a reverse cloud line given a somewhat more southwest flow orientation. However, this depends on if enough low level veering ultimately occurs as there might remain just enough of a southerly component to prevent an ideal alignment with the Island Chain. Should a more organized cloud line develop later today, rain rates over land communities will need to be monitored closely as forecast soundings show corfidi upshear values generally less than 10 knots, possibly enhancing the potential for back building cells and quick accumulations. It should also be noted that several recent CAM solutions are highlighting some maximum QPF bullseye values of 4-6" through tonight and while it remains to be seen if these totals will be more favored over land or offshore, there is a reasonable threat for potential hydro impacts, especially in locations that received multiple rounds of heavy rainfall in short durations. As a result, WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through early Tuesday morning across the entire Island Chain. The aforementioned upper level low will open into a trough by tonight and lift away to the northeast, eventually getting absorbed into a mid latitude trough swinging across the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, remnant energy associated with this departing disturbance will lead to the development of a coastal low offshore of the Southeast US on Tuesday with the low pressure expected to then lift northeastward, deepening as it gains latitude. Eventually, it will stall and retrograde slightly as it meanders offshore of the mid-Atlantic and becoming increasingly occluded towards the end of the week. A cold front attached to this system is expected to drop southward across the central Florida peninsula by mid week with and will continue advancing further southward into late week across the south FL and into the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, ahead of this boundary, tropical moisture is forecast to surge northward across western Cuba and into the Florida Keys with peak moisture values expected to occur late Tuesday into Thursday as PWATs possibly reach as high as 2.5 inches. This moisture has its source region in the southwestern Caribbean Sea as it appears that an inverted trough feature pinches off from a larger Central American Gyre counter-clockwise circulation. This disturbance is generally expected to move westward after it crosses the Yucatan Channel as it encounters stout mid-level ridging in the Ark-La-Tex region, but the substantial increase in moisture advection expected across the Keys should yield several days of a heavy rainfall threat with likely to categorical PoPs mid week before the arrival of the aforementioned frontal boundary brings a drier air mass into the area by end of the week. However, this is not expected to be a very clean frontal passage at this time as deeper moisture doesn`t completely scour out of our area so PoPs should linger in the high chance to likely range through the end of the period. While it still remains a bit early in the season for the cooler air mass changes and corresponding cold air advection that typically follow cold frontal passages, the northerly flow late in the week should help shave off a degree or two from highs and also bring dewpoints a few degrees lower, which should still be noticeable after an extended period of the typical Florida summer humidity. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279556 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 251 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Daily thunderstorms are expected across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina today with rain chances increasing Tuesday into Wednesday. - 2) A cold front could bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and will be followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Daily thunderstorms are expected across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina today with rain chances increasing Tuesday into Wednesday. Today and Tonight: Little change in the overall pattern has occurred during the past 24 hours in regards to an upper low meandering over Florida and deep moisture advecting across the local area with PWATs near 2 inches. However, a weak forcing setup should limit convective activity moreso than the previous day to a few showers and/or thunderstorms along an inland moving seabreeze during peak heating hours. An isolated strong thunderstorm with gusty winds is possible, but the threat for severe weather remains low. Activity could linger into early evening hours, but should dissipate within a few hours of sunset. Locations that see rainfall today will be more at risk for patchy to areas of fog late tonight, especially inland for a few hours prior to and around daybreak. Tuesday: The aforementioned upper low across Florida will begin to drift north across the Southeast United States, likely to bring higher chances of showers/thunderstorms locally despite trending weaker well in advance of a longwave trough making way across the Midwest. The uptick in forcing along with modest instability and residing 2+ inch PWATs could support a few stronger thunderstorms during mid-late afternoon into early evening hours, perhaps with some enhancement along/near a seabreeze. Localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding issues are also possible. However, the overall severe weather threat should be on the lower end. KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front could bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, and will be followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. The previously mentioned upper low is anticipated to shift north- northeast of the local area, becoming phased with a longwave trough shifting across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States mid-week. A notable cold front is progged to push south into the local as the mid-upper lvl pattern supports digging of the longwave trough across the Southeast. Timing of fropa will remain key in regards to the overall threat for stronger and/or marginally severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Although latest trends suggest cold fropa beginning late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, there could be sufficient time for strong sfc heating to occur within a deeply moist environment across Southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon, leading to a greater risk for stronger and/or marginally severe thunderstorms prior to sunset. Following the front, an inland wedge will set up across the Carolinas and Georgia, favoring cool and drier conditions locally within a north-northeast flow during the second half of the week. Cold air advection and a tightening pressure gradient should lead to breezy conditions post fropa Wednesday and Thursday, with some enhancement possible near coastal areas. In general, highs temps in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s for Southeast SC and low/mid 80s for Southeast GA are most probable into late week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TEMPO MVFR conditions are possible with showers/thunderstorms for the next hour or two at SAV before a seabreeze shifts further inland. The risk for showers/thunderstorms remains less at CHS/JZI early this afternoon, but can`t be ruled out completely. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely at all terminals late afternoon through a bulk of the night. However, lower clouds and fog could return across the area, with greater chances occurring at SAV. Prevailing MVFR conditions have been introduced from 10-14Z Tuesday at SAV, but IFR or lower cigs/vsbys are possible within a few hours of daybreak. VFR conditions should then prevail mid-late morning at all terminals prior to showers/thunderstorms developing across the area by early Tuesday afternoon. PROB30 groups for thunderstorms and MVFR conditions have been introduced at all terminals, starting at 15Z at JZI, 16Z at CHS and 17Z Tuesday at SAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restriction chances increase Tuesday into Wednesday at all terminals with a showers and thunderstorms and a building wedge post fropa Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gusty north-northeast winds are likely to follow at all terminals Wednesday into Thursday as well. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday: A decaying surface high pressure ahead of a slowly approaching cold front will continue the benign marine weather conditions across our local waters. Periodic showers and thunderstorms during this time may be capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning. Wednesday-Friday: A cold front will be pushing through on Wednesday, with a strong surge in northeasterly flow as the pinched pressure gradient (aka the wedge) sets up. Breezy ramp up during the evening hours, with wind gusts in excess of 25 knots have 60-90% chances, so Small Craft Advisories are anticipated. There is also a low chance (20-30%) for Gales to develop on Thursday, for the zones 20+nm offshore. In addition, wave heights of 5-7 ft will likely accompany the breezy winds for areas 15+ nm away from the coast Thursday morning through Friday evening before winds begin to weaken. Saturday: The wedge continues to weaken, further decreasing the wind strength throughout the day. Seas will remain unsettled, with offshore zones (20+nm offshore) seeing 6ft+ waves continuing into the evening hours before decreasing below 6 ft. Coastal Flooding: As a full moon approaches on 9/26, breezy northeast winds Wednesday evening into Friday may result in some coastal flooding issues as tidal departures rise. We will need to keep an eye on the potential starting as early as Wednesday afternoon for coastal Charleston and Colleton counties, expanding southwards to include the remainder of the SE SC coast into SE GA Thursday afternoon/evening. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279555 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 238 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. Overall forecast thinking remains similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday will give way to cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday will give way to cooler weather. Previous forecast remains on track for this week with guidance showing good agreement on an upr-level trough diving into the Mid Atlantic during the mid week period, leading to elevated chances for rain (50-60% PoPs) Tuesday through Thursday. Not expecting enough precip to put a dent into the drought, but isolated pockets of heavy rain are possible on Tuesday...the Weather Predication Center has a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall over part of the area. Environment is not really supportive of strong or severe storms, so while lightning will be a low risk, severe weather potential is very low. Thereafter, the upr-level low will cut off east of the Mid Atlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the area, leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR and dry with light east wind to start off the 18Z TAF period. Confidence for low cigs or vsbys is moderate to high over KFLO/KLBT late tonight where associated conditions were added into the TAFs, with lower confidence for the other terminals where only VFR was maintained. Exception there though is TEMPO groups to reflect MVFR cigs at times in scattered showers starting early Tuesday morning in the moist onshore flow. Any IFR/LIFR conditions inland will improve to VFR by mid- morning Tuesday, though MVFR cigs may stick around at times through the day in any heavier showers. Extended Outlook...There is a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in showers/thunderstorms/rain through Thursday; mainly VFR otherwise. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least Tuesday night with a fairly weak pressure gradient over the area. A low pressure system will develop offshore starting mid week leading to likely SCA conditions late Wednesday through Friday with even some gale gusts possible, mainly over the 20-60 NM waters, depending on how close to the coast the low develops and how quickly it strengthens. For now, expect mainly SCA headlines. An improving trend then for marine conditions into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279554 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue. A few storms may produce strong winds of 50+ mph and small hail. - A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 With the upper level low still parked over florida today, the pattern will remain the same. Showers and storms are beginning to develop over SWFL and inland. Coverage will increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Cold air aloft will increase chances of stronger storms, with the main hazards being damaging wind gusts, and possibly small hail. Storms will likely be slow moving, so localized flooding of Urban and poor drainage areas will also be possible. The upper level gets shifted out of the area by Wednesday as another upper level disturbance moves east across the U.S. By the end of the week the pattern will change once again as a frontal boundary moves south over Florida. Drier, and slightly cooler air will filter in following the front, which will limit rain chances. Over the weekend, some areas, especially northern and central zones could wake up in the upper 60s. High temperatures will likely max out in the upper 80s. Overall, should be a very pleasant weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions mostly prevail through the period with the exception of afternoon showers and storms developing and impacting sites. Timing for impacts will likely be this afternoon to the early evening hours. Quiet conditions return overnight. Similar pattern expected tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Quiet marine conditions over the next couple of days, with the exception being storms that develop or move over the waters. By midweek however, a frontal boundary will approach the waters and northeast winds will increase as it departs. Winds will likely reach cautionary levels with the potential of advisory levels. Winds and seas should begin to subside by the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the period as plenty of moisture remains over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 89 76 90 / 40 40 20 50 FMY 75 90 76 89 / 40 50 30 70 GIF 73 91 74 91 / 40 40 30 60 SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 40 40 30 50 BKV 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 20 50 SPG 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1279553 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 246 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - An unsettled pattern will continue to produce scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms across the area through Thursday. - A cool front late week will bring lower rain chances and drier air into the weekend. - Breezy northeast winds behind the front will lead to deteriorating beach and boating conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Rest of Today-Wednesday...A stalled upper level low lingers over the Florida peninsula today. This feature is providing enough enhancement to develop scattered to numerous showers and storms along the sea breeze early this afternoon, mainly south of Orlando. Expect this activity to continue westward through this afternoon, clearing into the western half of the peninsula by sunset. Mostly dry conditions then prevail overnight over land areas. However, persistent showers and storms over the Atlantic waters may occasionally drift onshore into coastal areas overnight. The main threats with any storms through this afternoon will be gusty winds to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3". Low temperatures dip into the lower to mid-70s tonight. Patchy fog will be possible over the interior, especially north of Orlando. An upper level trough dropping through the central US will push the low NE and merge with it through Wednesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") and the continued unsettled pattern will maintain higher coverage of showers and storms (40-70%) through mid-week. A few strong storms will remain possible. But, 500 mb temperatures warming from around -8 C today to -5 to -6 C by Wednesday will limit the threat overall. Onshore flow becomes increasingly NNE through the period, but remains around 10 mph or less. Winds overnight become light and variable, so will need to monitor the threat for patchy fog each night, especially over the interior. Otherwise, warm highs continue to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, which combine with high humidity to produce heat indices 98-102 degrees. Thursday-Monday...A strong low pressure system develops into Thursday morning offshore from the NE US. Meanwhile, the upper level trough digs into Florida, dragging a cool front southward through the peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms again on Thursday (50-70%), mainly along the weakening front. However, will see progressively lower rain chances from north to south into the weekend, as drier air filters into the area. PWATs fall below 1.5" this weekend, leading to PoPs 20-40% or less, highest across southern portions of the forecast area. A tightening pressure gradient will produce breezy and gusty NNE winds behind the front beginning on Thursday. Winds build to 10-15 mph Thursday afternoon and 15-20 mph Friday, with gusts 20-30 mph. The highest winds are forecast along the coast, especially north of the Cape. Breezy conditions linger Saturday, before winds fall to around 10 mph again into early next week. Enhanced onshore flow will lead to poor to hazardous beach conditions this weekend. Slightly cooler high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are forecast, though lower humidity will provide relief from heat indices above 100. Inland locations could even see lows in the 60s by the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially overnight, will remain a threat over the local Atlantic waters through Wednesday. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating conditions persist, with NE winds remaining around 10 kts or less. Seas 1-3 ft. A nor`easter off of the NE US coast will drag a cool front through the local waters Thursday. NE winds increase to 20-25 kts, progressing farther southward into Friday. Winds then remain breezy around 10-15 kts into the first half of the weekend. Higher coverage of showers and storms lingers Thursday, before drier air reduces chances into the weekend. Hazardous seas up to 6-9 ft are forecast to continue into Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Ongoing showers and storms around the I-95 corridor and moving inland with the sea breeze. Have maintained TEMPOs/PROB30 starting at 18Z for all sites, except DAB, with VCTS ongoing for all sites. Any lingering showers and storms will diminish or push out of the local area around 00Z, with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight. However, isolated showers and storms may brush along the coast through the overnight hours. E/NE winds 5-9 KT this afternoon will become light and variable overnight before becoming more E/NE and increasing to around 5 KT by late morning Tuesday. Have included VCSH staring along the coast at 15Z and VCTS starting at 17Z for MCO Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 10 60 MCO 73 91 74 90 / 20 50 20 70 MLB 74 88 75 88 / 20 40 20 60 VRB 73 88 73 88 / 20 50 30 60 LEE 73 91 74 91 / 20 40 20 60 SFB 73 90 74 89 / 10 50 10 70 ORL 74 90 75 90 / 10 50 20 70 FPR 72 89 73 88 / 30 60 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279552 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 123 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Low (20-35%) chance of showers and storms continue this week. - Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 NBM has finally joined the rest of the group with low (15-30%) daily rain chances through this week, mainly along the coast and over the Coastal Plains. A few showers and storms could develop along the afternoon seabreeze each afternoon, which could push showers a bit further inland, so we will continue to monitor development. Temperatures will be above average through the week (surprise, surprise). The good news is that heat index values will generally remain below 110 across the area. Even so, it is important that we all continue to practice heat safety: take breaks when outside, drink plenty of water, and look before you lock. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle with generally light winds expected at all terminals. Breezier conditions are possible in the afternoon along the seabreeze before winds diminish once again. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop-up through the evening, mainly along the coast but, with low confidence, have not mentioned this in any TAF. Patchy fog/low ceilings could develop late tonight into early morning for ALI, VCT and COT. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light to gentle (BF2-3) breezes with seas around 2 feet with continue through Wednesday. Winds increase slightly to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze, with a corresponding increase in seas to 3- 4 feet later this week. A low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the weekend and into next week. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30% across all of South Texas Thursday through the period. With winds being light, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 20 10 Victoria 74 100 74 101 / 0 20 10 30 Laredo 76 100 75 99 / 10 20 10 20 Alice 74 96 74 95 / 0 30 0 10 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 76 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 76 97 76 95 / 0 30 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 91 / 0 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279551 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 155 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The wet pattern for South FL will continue early this work week. An upper low over the northern part of the state will slowly lift to the northeast today and eventually get absorbed into the broader upper level flow on Tuesday. Meanwhile, moist southerly flow will be in place across South FL with HREF and forecast soundings showing PWAT values of 2.1-2.3 inches. Much like the past several days, convection coverage will likely be broader than what the Hi-res models are showing. Expected numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours both today and Tuesday, with the highest PoPs over the interior and east coast metro. While mean QPF values are generally 0.5-1 inch, highly efficient rainfall rates and slow moving storms will likely result in pockets of 2-4 inches across the area, and that is backed up by the HREF 6 hour max totals late in the day. Therefore, several instances of urban and poor drainage flooding should be expected and prepared for, especially across vulnerable portions of the east coast metro. WPC is carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the metro for both today and Tuesday. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be generally in the upper 80s to around 90, with the high temps occurring early in the afternoon before rain-cooled temps arrive. Low temps tonight will be in the low to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day. Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 SE winds remain light to moderate in the 5-10 kt range across the east coast terminals, while the afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is expected again this afternoon at APF. TEMPOs remain in place for the east coast terminals as chances of showers and thunderstorms favor those. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. Winds will become L/V once again across all terminals after 01-02Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 87 76 87 / 40 70 60 90 West Kendall 75 86 75 86 / 40 70 60 90 Opa-Locka 77 87 75 87 / 40 70 60 90 Homestead 77 87 76 86 / 50 70 70 90 Fort Lauderdale 76 87 76 87 / 40 80 60 90 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 76 87 / 40 80 60 90 Pembroke Pines 75 87 75 87 / 40 80 60 90 West Palm Beach 75 88 75 88 / 40 80 50 80 Boca Raton 75 88 75 87 / 40 80 60 90 Naples 75 88 75 88 / 40 80 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279550 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 153 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the next couple days. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to the low 100s. - Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or two are also possible. - Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The forecast is on track, so no updates are needed to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The last day of the Summer Solstice will not feel like a transition to fall thanks to an unseasonably warm/humid airmass fostered by a lingering mid-upper low over the Eastern Gulf. This feature should serve as a focus for another round of afternoon- evening showers and thunderstorms. The greatest convective potential is along/south of the I-10 corridor where prevailing NE winds converge with the Gulf coast seabreeze. Atlantic seabreeze-driven convection also aims to push westward into the Lower I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend. We will also have to monitor trends across the Upper MS Valley where a subtle shortwave acts as "wildcard" for thunderstorms to our west/NW where an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) stretches toward I- 85. The main threats are strong-gusty winds (isolated severe downbursts possible), frequent lightning, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures drop to the low 70s. These values are well above normal for late September. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The aforementioned mid-upper low loses definition on Tuesday as a northern stream upper trough digs down to the OH-TN Valley. Rain chances decrease in response with only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Convective forcing should be from the seabreeze and a pre-frontal surface trough from the NW. The latter is attendant to an SPC Marginal Risk spreads into I-185. On Wednesday a front dropping in from the north serves as the primary focus for convection. The highest rain chances are along/NE of the I-10 corridor and the SE FL Big Bend. A drying/cooling trend more akin to early Autumn ensues the remainder of the forecast period following frontal passage as a less humid airmass filters in via brisk NE winds. High and low temperatures prior to the front are forecast to be in the low 90s & low 70s - Tuesday through Thursday morning. Thereafter, highs/lows drop to the 80s/60s, which are closer to normal for the last week of September. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A field of SCT to locally BKN fair weather cumulus covers the entire region. Through the afternoon, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop most anywhere, though convection will somewhat favor the I-75 corridor (including VLD) and the Panhandle seabreeze zone (including ECP). Confidence in thunder is low enough to have removed TS from the TAFs, going instead with VCSH this afternoon and evening. However, thunder is still an outside possibility. For low stratus and fog near sunrise Tuesday, guidance points to VLD being near the western edge of a larger area over SE Georgia. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Prevailing northeast winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes the next several days. Cautionary to perhaps advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following frontal passage. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms the next 3 days. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise, expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 There are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding, or ponding of water. Dry weather is expected late this week following frontal passage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 91 74 92 / 10 20 10 30 Panama City 75 91 75 91 / 20 20 10 30 Dothan 71 91 72 91 / 10 20 20 20 Albany 72 92 72 91 / 10 10 20 20 Valdosta 72 91 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 Cross City 73 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 40 Apalachicola 75 87 76 88 / 30 40 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279549 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 104 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Highest potential of a shower/storm will be in our northern counties and along the seabreeze in our southern counties. - Hot temperatures with daily isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms through midweek. - Less humid after midweek following a backdoor frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today is the final full day of astronomical summer and Mother Nature is going to make sure we get our money`s worth as temperatures remain well above normal. Our normal high temperature this time of the year is actually in the low 90s...but most of us will see temperatures top out in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Some of you will hit the weather lottery though and get a brief reprieve from the heat in the form of isolated showers/storms this afternoon. The CAMs (including me) still insist on popcorn convection beginning around 2pm along the sea breeze and a few hours later along a lingering boundary over portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. PW values are generally peaking around or just over the 75th percentile (~1.80"), so it wouldn`t surprise me to see a few pockets of 1-2" rainfall occuring in a relatively short period of time. Showers/storms will gradually dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Do you remember...the 21st night of September? We actually will be chasing the clouds away as the overnight hours will feature mostly clear skies...but still fairly humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s. There may be a few nights to remember later in the week though! The above normal temperatures and daily rain chances continue through midweek, and this is probably as good of a time as any to mention that the autumnal equinox is tomorrow (Tuesday) at 7:04 PM CDT. Astronomical fall begins with *checks notes* temperatures in the mid to upper 90s...yeah that`s about right. Ridge axis and a developing mid-level high dominate the forecast Tuesday and beyond, which means hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the week...right...RIGHT?! Not so fast, my friend! A trough sweeping through the eastern half of the country will push in a backdoor frontal boundary (a front moving in from the northeast) late Wednesday/early Thursday. Drier air filters in behind this front that lasts going into the early part of the weekend, so low temperatures for some of you (mainly northern areas) will feature the upper 60s/low 70s once again. High temperatures will also be slightly "cooler" as we trade out the upper 90s for the low to mid 90s. Of course we can throw in the cliche "bUt iT`S a DrY hEaT", but 90s are still 90s. We`re in the realm of this being better than nothing, but it leaves us longing for that first true front...which we`ll briefly talk about at the end of this discussion. Moisture/humidity returns on Sunday leading to the return of rain chances into the forecast. Before we get into our brief beyond the forecast period outlook on a potential real cold front, let`s start with the usual disclaimer: it`s too early to lock in anything...remember that we are looking at trends this far out, so it`s not an official forecast. Looking at both the GFS and Euro ensembles, there is still a statistically notable number of members that reflect below normal temperatures around the first weekend of October. Now again this doesn`t mean that this WILL happen, but it is within the realistic realm of possibilities for once. This is a lot better than the 0% potential we`ve had over the past five-ish months! Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Winds are variable throughout our region as a weak boundary to the northwest and afternoon sea breeze to the southeast interact. These two boundaries slightly elevate TS/SH chances, particularly south of I-10 this afternoon and then north of CXO early this evening. Upper level ridging and PWATs less than 2 inches suggest any storms/showers that do develop will be isolated in coverage, resulting in PROB30s throughout most TAF sites. More northern sites around CLL could see elevated coverage (isolated-scattered) with that northern boundary drifting deeper into our region this evening. Current trends suggest that neither boundary will advance close enough to IAH to include them in our PROB30 for the time being. Winds become light and variable by 01-03Z before increasing to 5-10 kts generally out of the northeast by 16Z Tuesday. Patchy fog is possible around sunrise for typical sites (LBX, CXO). Late morning MVFR ceilings possible with a typical summertime cumulus field developing before lifting early Tuesday afternoon. Another round of TS/SH possible Tuesday after 18Z with the sea breeze, which pulls winds back out of the SE by the end of this forecast period. BSM && .MARINE... Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds today will become more northeasterly to easterly beginning on Tuesday. Winds may be consistently moderate enough to warrant periods of caution flags at times, especially around midweek. Seas will remain mainly in the 1-3 ft range through the end of the work week, then increasing to 2-4 ft over the weekend. Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms persist through midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 98 76 98 / 30 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 78 97 79 96 / 0 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 92 83 91 / 0 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279548 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 158 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued starting this evening, with Gale Watches being issued for Tuesday evening through Thursday. Lowered high temperatures a little Wednesday as cold air damming sets up across the area. Also removed the chance of thunder for Wednesday as the environment will be too stable, with the exception of the NC coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area. 2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. 3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area. Early morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure set up over Ontario, Canada extending outwards into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is currently draped across the northern VA border as of this writing and is progged to slowly push southward across our area through the day today. It will likely take most of the day to reach NC, which will impact both our temperature and precipitation forecast for today. First of all, let`s note that winds will become NNE as the front passes through. Additionally, low cloud cover will also develop along and behind the front, and will likely linger into tomorrow. There could also be some patchy ground fog this morning ahead of the front. The front will create quite a temperature gradient across the CWA today, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for ~Ashland and north. To the south, highs will be able to jump into the upper 80s. Our furthest south points in NE NC will likely hit 90 degrees today. The precipitation forecast is a bit tricky today due to the timing and placement of the front, but the better chances for showers and storms will be along and south of the front where some somewhat decent instability will exist - so roughly US-460 and south. SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe weather along and west of I-95, with the main threat still being damaging winds. Hi-res guidance has trended the timing of any storms a bit later to late this evening, especially closer to the VA/NC border. Models are then in decent agreement of rain chances becoming more widespread overnight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone. On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35-45mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the upper 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25mph with gusts to 35+mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through Friday/Saturday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren`t expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for lower 50s inland. Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it may be just far enough from our area that we could get a break in the rainy conditions for the weekend, but that definitely could change as the details of the low`s placement come to light. The 00Z GFS run even has the stubborn coastal low meandering back down south to the VA/NC line to start the new work week. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below). KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. A significant rise in tidal anomalies is forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal flooding is likely (locally moderate) as early as the Wednesday morning high tide cycle, with widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast during the Wednesday evening high tide. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Specifics will become more clear as we get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along the south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic coast. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, as the onset of the worst tidal flooding is around 60 hours out, but they will eventually be needed for a decent portion of the area. Tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Monday... This afternoon, a cold front has dropped south across most of the area and is currently situated just south of the VA/NC border. North of the front, widespread MVFR CIGs have developed with even some patchy IFR CIGs across far NE portions of the area. Winds north of the front are generally N to NE and averaging ~8 to 10 knots (locally higher along the coast). ECG is the only site currently just south of the front and is currently seeing VFR CIGs. Scattered showers or storms are possible in the vicinity of ECG this afternoon, but confidence is low on if these will actually impact the terminal. MVFR CIGs continue to become more widespread through this evening and tonight, with IFR CIGs likely developing across the VA Piedmont over to the MD Eastern Shore, with the best potential at RIC and SBY. SHRA and/or BR also becomes more widespread tonight into Tuesday, leading to the potential for VSBY restrictions. IFR CIGs likely hold strong at RIC and SBY through much of, if not all of the day Tuesday with widespread MVFR elsewhere. NE winds become gusty along the immediate coast (20-25 knots) in the later morning-afternoon. Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island. - SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches have been issued for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River. - The strongest winds will likely occur from Wednesday-Thursday. A ~6 hour period of sustained gale force winds (with gusts to 45 kt) is possible during this time. Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions. A cold front is approaching from the north early this morning, with high pressure well off the SE coast. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt with ~3 ft seas. All attention remains on a significant pattern change this week, which is expected to bring strong northeast winds, 10-14 ft+ seas, and overall dangerous marine conditions. Forecast confidence remains fairly high. The cold front just to our north will cross most of the waters later today, though the initial CAA/wind behind the front won`t be that strong. But, NE winds increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south by late aftn/early evening, which will cause seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a ramp up SCA for the northern two ocean zones starting at 6 PM today. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Will continue to monitor but will hold off on ramp up SCAs at this time. The front will likely stall for a bit tonight into the first part of Tuesday before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt south/25- 30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn. An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Have issued Gale Watches for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River starting Tuesday evening/Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday (for now). While there are model differences in the strength of the 925-850mb wind field, prevailing winds around 30 kt with gusts of ~40 kt are likely over the ocean and lower bay from early Wed-Thu (with slightly lower winds on the upper bay and Lower James). Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for MDZ024. NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ082>084-089-090-099-100-518-520-523- 524-528. Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ097-098-525-529>531. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ633-658-688. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Friday morning for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for ANZ656-686. && $$ |
| #1279547 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1259 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. - A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The area remains in a northeasterly upper flow pattern between an upper ridge to the west and an upper low over central Florida. The upper ridge will continue to move westward and weaken while the upper low gets absorbed into the upper level flow and moves northeast by Tuesday. Precipitable water values continue to increase as Atlantic moisture moves into the area around the upper low. The weakening ridge along with increasing moisture will allow scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms to develop this afternoon and move southwest. The ridge rebuilds to our west Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances decreasing. A weak front moves through the area late Wednesday into Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area. The lack of significant moisture ahead of the front along with the upper ridge will keep conditions dry as the front moves through. A dry northwest upper flow continues into the weekend. Above normal temps in the low to mid 90s continue through midweek before some slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front late in the week. This will return high temps to back near/slightly above normal. The drier airmass will allow lows to drop into the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast for the end of the week into the weekend. /13 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Storms coverage is more likely from southeast Mississippi to west central Alabama, with uncertainty if any storm clusters can push southward towards the gulf coast with confidence being too low at this time to include in the TAF. Southerly winds will calm overnight, before another morning of northeast to easterly flow is expected. /KL && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 10 Pensacola 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 Destin 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 71 95 70 93 / 30 20 10 0 Camden 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 20 0 Crestview 70 92 71 93 / 20 20 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279545 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Mainly Afternoon Thunderstorms through Wednesday. Few Strong Storms are Possible, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail. Localized Flooding Possible Due to Slow Storm Movement at Inland Locations - Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Early Tuesday morning, Mainly Inland. Locally Dense Fog at 1/4 mile expected at times - Strengthening Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine Hazards by late Wednesday night into Thursday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide Beginning Late Thursday && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered Storms will expected this Afternoon and Evening, with Localized Flood Potential Due to Slow Storm Motion at Inland Locations. - Locally dense fog possible late tonight. Surface analysis shows weak trough still offshore but will be weakening while shifting westward through the early evening. Still looking at the mid/upper level trough extending northeast across our area from a 500 mb low over the eastern Gulf. The mid/upper level trough will continue to rotate westward gradually through Tuesday morning. This trough will enhance the instability due to somewhat cool temps aloft that are near -7 to -8C at 500 mb. There is little in the way of any convective inhibition and there is a fair amount of cumulus at 130 PM, with isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated storm per radar loops. Daytime instability may be a little greater than previously forecast, and upwards of about 1800-2200 J/kg during the peak heating. This may lead to a greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon, but still generally going with scattered showers and storms rest of today. Forecast also generally on track that the bulk of the deep convection will be slowly shifting inland during the late afternoon and be located near and west of I-75 after about 6 PM. Storms will be capable of producing winds to around 45 mph and locally heavy rainfall/very localized flooding potential. There should be a lull in the activity later in the evening. However, isolated to scattered coastal showers and possibly a thunderstorm expected to redevelop during the predawn hours along and east of I-95. As far as fog potential, decent potential of patchy to areas of fog late tonight and has been maintained in the forecast at this time - locally dense fog cannot be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms - Strengthening Northeasterly Conditions Wednesday and Wednesday Night Northeasterly winds will bring isolated showers onshore Tuesday morning, with coverage expanding inward through the day as the sea breeze pushes inland. Isolated storms will be possible primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Not a significant strong storm threat, though very high PWATs will result in heavy rain/minor flooding being the primary hazard potential in addition to some gusty downbursts and perhaps some isolated small hail. Above average temperatures in the low 90s inland will continue, with coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Similar high temperatures are expected again on Wednesday. Onshore flow begins to strengthen further on Wednesday as a front approaches as well, increasing precipitation coverage, especially near the east coast. A secondary surge of breezy northeasterlies develop Wednesday Night as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure ridging building over the area. This will keep the winds up overnight but especially closer to the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm over the nearshore waters will make it towards the coast and just onshore at times. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations Thursday and Friday - Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend Northerly steering flow and stronger northeasterly surface winds continue on Thursday and Friday, with drier air infiltrating most of the area both days. The stronger onshore winds will bring back coastal hazards such as gusty winds along the coast and St. Johns river, increased rip current risk, and dangerous surf. Thursday, precipitation chances will be mainly limited to the coast and inland areas generally east of the line from Gainesville to Jacksonville. By Friday, PWATs will dip below 1.5" for the entire area, with only isolated showers expected for the northeast Florida coast. Highs will be in the 80s both days, a little warmer on Thursday. Next weekend looks beautiful, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, mostly sunny skies, and dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Onshore winds begin to calm this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Scattered to broken cumulus will be prevalent rest of the afternoon around 2500-3500 ft given the rich low-level moisture. Expecting a round of scattered showers and a few storms through the afternoon and early evening hours. Best chances of MVFR in SHRA or TSRA initially for the coastal TAF sites through 20z-21z, then better for GNV around 19Z-23Z. Can`t rule out IFR vsby in the convection for a brief period. The convection should end for GNV terminal by at least 01z. VFR should be prevalent in the evening hours, but then potential for coastal showers again and possibly a storm overnight (near or after 04z) that could affect SGJ, CRG, and SSI so will continue to show at least VCSH. Some low clouds expected again as well late tonight mainly inland for VQQ and GNV, possibly near JAX. Looks like VCSH will be possible late Tuesday morning for coastal areas again. && .MARINE... A surface trough and an upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to local waters through Tuesday. By Wednesday into Wednesday night, strong high pressure well to the north will help push a backdoor cold front south through the area, allowing for another round of showers and thunderstorms, and a surge of northeast winds and building seas. This front will then trigger Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Wednesday night through Friday, with potential for Gale Force Wind Gusts from Thursday to early Friday morning. Breezy winds and elevated seas will slowly subside late Saturday night into Sunday. Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through Tuesday at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Wednesday afternoon, creating a higher end moderate risk at area beaches. A surge of north- northeasterly winds and building surf will arrive at area beaches on Wednesday evening, with a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches from Thursday through at least Saturday. A period of high surf conditions will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday at the northeast FL beaches, when breakers may build to the 5-7 foot range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Onshore flow and poor to fair dispersions are expected on Tuesday before a cool front moves through on Wednesday, bringing a much stronger northeasterly wind surge and moderate to high range changes Wednesday through the rest of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through Thursday, with drier air in place Friday through the weekend. Fog Potential...Patchy inland fog possible each morning through Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will be on the rise later this week due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon, officially on Saturday, Sept 26th. A northeast wind surge will develop for the coastal areas on Wednesday which will exacerbate the coastal water levels along the Atlantic coast and eventually into the St Johns River. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during times of high tide beginning with the evening high tide on Thursday and likely continuing during high tide cycles through into the weekend. Minor flooding may become possible within the St. Johns River basin as early as Thursday night, and then through the weekend around times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 70 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 SSI 87 74 87 76 / 30 30 30 30 JAX 88 70 89 72 / 40 20 40 10 SGJ 86 75 87 74 / 30 20 30 20 GNV 89 71 90 72 / 40 20 40 10 OCF 90 72 91 73 / 40 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279546 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage across the northern half of the area. A few stronger storms could produce localized strong to damaging wind gusts. - Rain chances decrease Tuesday before a mostly dry cold front moves through Wednesday, bringing a shift to northerly winds and noticeably lower humidity. - Drier air behind the front will allow for cooler Thursday morning temperatures, especially along and north of I-12, with quiet and dry weather continuing late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today will be the most convectively active period of the short term as the approaching upper trough continues to weaken the mid- level cap that has been in place the last few days. Convective temperatures are generally around 91-92 degrees this afternoon, which most locations should begin reaching around 21z. That timing lines up well with the latest CAM guidance, which has trended towards greater coverage compared to previous runs, particularly across the northern half of the area. Given the improved agreement and higher confidence, PoPs were increased around 21z in those areas. Convection should initially be tied to differential heating and any lingering boundaries before storm-scale outflows increasingly take over. Deep-layer shear remains very weak, so storms should largely remain pulse-type or loosely organized multicells. Even so, strong instability and favorable thermodynamic profiles should support efficient downdraft acceleration with the stronger cores, and an isolated strong to severe downburst cannot be ruled out near peak heating. Damaging wind would be the main concern, though the overall severe threat remains limited by the weak shear and the relatively short-lived nature of individual cells. The CAMs are also fairly consistent in convection winding down quickly this evening, with coverage decreasing after sunset this evening and most activity largely finished around 03z. Tuesday looks noticeably less active as the upper trough pulls farther east and northwesterly flow develops aloft. Enough low- level moisture and instability should remain for isolated afternoon convection, but forcing will be weaker and overall coverage should be lower than today. The better opportunity appears to favor the eastern and northeastern portions of the area where deeper moisture should linger a little longer. Farther west, increasing subsidence and slightly drier air aloft should make convective initiation more difficult. With less rain and cloud coverage, temperatures should respond accordingly and remain quite warm through the afternoon. By Wednesday, attention turns to a cold front dropping south through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This does not look like a particularly active frontal passage locally, as surface high pressure builds quickly behind the boundary and deeper moisture is steadily displaced southward. Any meaningful precipitation signal remains weak, so the frontal passage will likely be easier to identify through a wind shift and falling dewpoints than through shower activity. The front should work through much of the area during the day and evening, with noticeably drier air beginning to filter into the northern half of the CWA by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The biggest change Thursday will be the arrival of a noticeably drier air mass behind Wednesday`s front rather than any substantial cooldown. Northerly to northeasterly flow will continue advecting lower dewpoints into the area, and guidance has become more convincing that the drier air will reach further south by Thursday morning. With that in mind, overnight lows were nudged downward along and north of I-12 where lower dewpoints and better radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall more efficiently. The New Orleans metro and immediate coastal areas should remain somewhat warmer given the usual urban and marine influences. Upper ridging building overhead will otherwise keep conditions dry, with warm afternoon temperatures but noticeably lower humidity. The ridge should remain the dominant feature through the remainder of the long-term period, keeping convection largely suppressed and resulting in a fairly quiet late-week forecast. Surface high pressure will gradually shift east Friday and into the weekend, allowing easterly to southeasterly flow and a slow return of low- level moisture. Humidity should therefore begin creeping back upward by Saturday and Sunday, but moisture recovery appears gradual enough that any convection should remain isolated at best through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period outside of convection. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop right around or just before 21z as temperatures reach convective thresholds, with the greatest coverage favored across the northern half of the area. Any terminal directly impacted could briefly see MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain along with abrupt wind shifts and locally strong gusts, including a low-end downburst risk with the strongest cells. Convection should diminish fairly quickly after sunset, and most activity ending around 03z. Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight into Tuesday, with only isolated afternoon convection possible again Tuesday and considerably lower confidence in direct terminal impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the first half of the week, with light winds and relatively low seas outside of scattered thunderstorms. Convection will be most numerous this afternoon and evening, and any stronger storms could produce brief periods of gusty and erratic along with locally higher waves. Winds should remain fairly light Tuesday before a cold front moves through the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Behind the front, northerly to northeasterly flow will strengthen as high pressure builds across the land, with the highest seas likely occurring late Wednesday night into Thursday, particularly the over the open Gulf waters. Conditions should gradually improve late in the week as the pressure gradient relaxes and the surface high shifts east. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279543 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 141 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next few days. - A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches. - A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower rain chances and slight cooling late week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today-Tue...An upper level (cut-off) low will continue to spin over the western FL peninsula today then open up into a trough and lift NE on Tue. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms both afternoons over land. Overnight/early morning showers and storms will continue over the Atlc, sparked this morning by a land breeze slowly pushing offshore. As diurnal heating develops, convection should develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift inland into the evening hours. Temps aloft remain cool today (-8C at 500mb) so a few strong storms are possible containing gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall 1-3". Temps are forecast to warm to -6C Tue as the upper low weakens/fills so risk of strong storms will decrease. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Wed-Sun...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great Lakes region Wed, then deepens into a strong cut-off low just off the mid Atlc coast late week with an assocd sfc low deepening near 990mb. This stacked low pressure system will not move much as high pressure to the north will create a blocking pattern into the weekend. In the low levels, a cool front will get driven southward into the Florida peninsula Wednesday with a secondary surge pushing the front south of the area by Friday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") will persist over the area Wed esp southern sections while the presence of the front maintains enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. N/NE winds are forecast to increase Thu as pressure gradient tightens supporting 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph spreading southward from Volusia into Brevard during Thu. Gusts near 30 mph are possible along the immediate Volusia coast Thursday aftn-eve. Max temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue. Drier air will filter down into central FL beginning Fri, lowering PoPs to 20-40% this weekend. Breezy NE flow continues, especially along the coast on Friday then decreasing slightly this weekend. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s. However, min temps will remain quite mild holding in the 70s due to the onshore flow. But as that onshore flow decreases, inland sections should drop into the mid and upper 60s Sat night/Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week as NE to E winds remain around 10 kts or less during the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight and early morning. However, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day, especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible, capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft. A cool front is forecast to cross the local Atlantic waters Thursday, bringing a surge of N/NE winds increasing to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral in the afternoon. Conditions look to deteriorate southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Ongoing showers and storms around the I-95 corridor and moving inland with the sea breeze. Have maintained TEMPOs/PROB30 starting at 18Z for all sites, except DAB, with VCTS ongoing for all sites. Any lingering showers and storms will diminish or push out of the local area around 00Z, with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight. However, isolated showers and storms may brush along the coast through the overnight hours. E/NE winds 5-9 KT this afternoon will become light and variable overnight before becoming more E/NE and increasing to around 5 KT by late morning Tuesday. Have included VCSH staring along the coast at 15Z and VCTS starting at 17Z for MCO Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 10 60 MCO 73 91 74 90 / 20 50 20 70 MLB 74 88 75 88 / 20 40 20 60 VRB 73 88 73 88 / 20 50 30 60 LEE 73 91 74 91 / 20 40 20 60 SFB 73 90 74 89 / 10 50 10 70 ORL 74 90 75 90 / 10 50 20 70 FPR 72 89 73 88 / 30 60 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279541 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 131 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 - A typical weather pattern will persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the next few days, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms across central, northern, and western Puerto Rico. - A Heat Advisory is remains in effect through 3 PM AST today for all Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Heat concerns will continue each day, particularly before the onset of afternoon showers. - A wetter and more unstable pattern will return by mid-week, increasing the potential for widespread heavy rainfall and stronger thunderstorms. - Low rip current risk will continue through the day on Wednesday across all local beaches. Moderate rip current risk is expected to return starting late Wednesday for the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. && .Short Term(This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands during the morning hours, with passing showers moving across eastern to southern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Based on radar estimates, accumulations were not significant overall, but locally, 0.75 to nearly 1 inch of rain was reported in the municipality of Naguabo. From mid-morning into the afternoon hours, cloudiness began to increase, accompanied by additional persistent passing showers moving into the interior municipalities. In terms of winds, the overall low-level wind flow has been from the southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. At 11 AM AST, daytime temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to the low 90s, while heat indices reached the low 100s F, with localized areas across north-central Puerto Rico reaching up to 110 F at that time. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 3 PM AST this afternoon for both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Latest satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PWAT) imagery indicates values remain near seasonal levels to slightly above normal (1.9 to 2.1 inches). The morning sounding (12Z TJSJ) showed 1.91 inches of PWAT and a persistent light southeasterly flow from the surface to around 3 km. This, in combination with daytime heating, local effects, and 500-mb temperatures around -6 C, should support the potential for strong thunderstorms capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds. As a result, for the rest of the afternoon, an elevated flood threat remains in place, particularly across portions of the interior, north-central, and northwestern Puerto Rico, while a limited flood threat remains for portions of eastern Puerto Rico into the metropolitan area with the development of the El Yunque and U.S. Virgin Islands streamers. An elevated flood threat means flooding is possible in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, while a limited flood threat means ponding of water is possible on roads and in poorly drained areas. For the rest of the short-term period, seasonal moisture and easterly to southeasterly winds will continue, driven by a surface high-pressure system establishing over the eastern Atlantic. Aloft, a series of upper-level lows will linger, gradually cooling mid- level temperatures to -7 to -8 C on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, a similar weather pattern is expected to continue over the coming days, with heat and afternoon convection as the main hazards. However, one difference expected on Wednesday is that drier air will filter into the mid-levels, slightly suppressing convective activity. Nevertheless, local effects and low-level moisture should be sufficient to support afternoon activity. Continue to monitor the forecast as forecast adjustments and updates become available. Overall, above-normal heat and strong afternoon thunderstorms posing a limited to elevated flood risk are expected to continue through the forecast period. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Surface high pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic will promote mainly southeasterly low-level wind flow during most of the long-term period, becoming more easterly early next week, at around 10 to 18 knots. The latest models show that precipitable water content will remain mainly near seasonal values, between 1.75 and 2.0 inches, except from Friday night into early Saturday, when values may decrease to around 1.5 inches (25th percentile), as low concentrations of Saharan dust particles are expected to start arriving. By Thursday and Friday, models continue to indicate mid to upper- level lows, bringing some instability and 500-mb temperatures cooling to below-seasonal values, around -8 to -9 degrees Celsius. Models have been adjusting, bringing drier air into the 850 to 700- mb levels and also into the mid to upper levels during the weekend. With marginal instability aloft, daytime heating, and local effects, at this time Thursday and Friday look like two days with frequent passing showers across windward areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, along with strong afternoon thunderstorms across parts of the interior into northwestern Puerto Rico. If this scenario materializes, it could produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and locally gusty winds. A limited to elevated flooding risk is possible during this period, meaning that flooding in urban areas, on roads, and in small streams and washes is possible. As previously mentioned, Saturday looks like the day Saharan dust will start to infiltrate the islands. Additional mid-level drying is expected. As a result, rain chances are expected to decrease, and afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, driven by local effects, should remain more confined to northwestern Puerto Rico and decrease in intensity. From Sunday into early next week, low-level winds are also expected to strengthen somewhat and available moisture gradually increase. That should allow for a more typical pattern, with morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection across western sectors of Puerto Rico. A persistent hazard during the long term will be the heat. It will largely depend on cloud cover and the coverage and timing of showers, but overall, the combination of seasonal moisture, mainly southeasterly winds, and 925-mb temperatures around two standard deviations above normal will likely result in warm to hot conditions, particularly from 11 AM to 4 PM, which are typically the peak heat hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites through most of the forecast period. However, VCTS & TSRA will likely result in intermittent MVFR to brief IFR conds and mountain obscurations at TJSJ/TJBQ thru 21/22z. VCSH are expected across the rest of the terminals. Mainly ESE winds up to 10 kt and sea breeze variations. Light and variable winds expected overnight. A similar weather pattern is expected to continue on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 A weak surface high pressure northeast of the region will maintain gentle to moderate east-southeasterly trades of 5 to 15 knots over the next few days, with winds gradually becoming easterly late Tuesday into midweek as the high pressure becomes better organized over the northeastern Atlantic. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 feet across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, including the local passages. A small long-period northeasterly swell will reach the area late Wednesday into late in the workweek, becoming the dominant period across the local Atlantic Waters, including the Anegada and northern sections of the Mona Passages. However, so far wave heights are expected to remain between 2 to 4 feet across the region. Passing showers may briefly increase winds and seas, while afternoon thunderstorms moving into the western and northwestern coastal waters of Puerto Rico may produce locally strong gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning through the early evening hours. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 125 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Low rip current risk is expected across all local beaches for the rest of today, tonight and tomorrow, Tuesday. From late Wednesday onward, a moderate risk is expected to return across the north and east-facing beaches of the islands, due to a small long-period northeasterly swell and a slight increase in wind speeds across the coastal waters. Additionally, daily diurnal convection will continue to generate afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwest quadrant and northeastern Puerto Rico, bringing localized hazards of lightning and gusty winds. Beachgoers should monitor changing conditions and seek shelter immediately. An elevated heat risk is forecast through at least Tuesday, enhancing potential heat impacts. Residents and visitors should remain hydrated and limit prolonged sun exposure during peak afternoon heating. Follow guidance from local health officials. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 3 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>013. VI...Heat Advisory until 3 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279539 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Rain chances will increase tomorrow and Wednesday and linger through the weekend - Temperatures remain warm but ease off a few degrees from widespread areas of low 100s along/west I-69 E to mostly upper 90s by Tuesday. - Pockets of extreme risks of heat-related illnesses (level 4/4) are likely to continue for more populated portions of the RGV/Rio Grande Plains through this week while the rest of the region experiences moderate to major risks (level 2/4 and 3/4). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Will continue to see a somewhat unsettled weather pattern through the forecast period. High pressure will prevail over Deep South Texas with easterly fetch bringing in excess moisture to the region, leading to low rain chances early this week, mainly along the sea breeze. As we head into mid to late week, a surface boundary will move into central Texas enhancing deep moisture across the region leading to more scattered to numerous sea breeze showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances Tuesday will be 20-40% increasing to around 30-50% Wednesday through Friday. Rain chances will taper off this weekend into next week. Heat Risk will remain Moderate to Extreme over the next week, though increased cloud cover and/or showers and thunderstorms could bring a little relief. Temperatures will still remain above normal into mid to upper 90s to low triple digits though Wednesday through Friday could struggle to reach the triple digits with excess cloudcover and rain chances. Heat indices will peak each afternoon between 105-110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all aerodromes with light easterly winds. Could see some very isolated showers this afternoon but confidence was too low to put into the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally favorable conditions will prevail with light to moderate easterly winds with seas around 2-3 ft and 6-7 second periods. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 95 / 10 30 30 50 HARLINGEN 76 99 76 97 / 0 30 30 50 MCALLEN 79 101 79 99 / 0 40 30 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 77 98 / 10 40 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 89 / 10 30 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 10 30 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279540 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Rain chances will increase tomorrow and Wednesday and linger through the weekend - Temperatures remain warm but ease off a few degrees from widespread areas of low 100s along/west I-69 E to mostly upper 90s by Tuesday. - Pockets of extreme risks of heat-related illnesses (level 4/4) are likely to continue for more populated portions of the RGV/Rio Grande Plains through this week while the rest of the region experiences moderate to major risks (level 2/4 and 3/4). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Will continue to see a somewhat unsettled weather pattern through the forecast period. High pressure will prevail over Deep South Texas with easterly fetch bringing in excess moisture to the region, leading to low rain chances early this week, mainly along the sea breeze. As we head into mid to late week, a surface boundary will move into central Texas enhancing deep moisture across the region leading to more scattered to numerous sea breeze showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances Tuesday will be 20-40% increasing to around 30-50% Wednesday through Friday. Rain chances will taper off this weekend into next week. Heat Risk will remain Moderate to Extreme over the next week, though increased cloud cover and/or showers and thunderstorms could bring a little relief. Temperatures will still remain above normal into mid to upper 90s to low triple digits though Wednesday through Friday could struggle to reach the triple digits with excess cloudcover and rain chances. Heat indices will peak each afternoon between 105-110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all aerodromes with light easterly winds. Could see some very isolated showers this afternoon but confidence was too low to put into the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally favorable conditions will prevail with light to moderate easterly winds with seas around 2-3 ft and 6-7 second periods. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 95 / 10 30 30 50 HARLINGEN 76 99 76 97 / 0 30 30 50 MCALLEN 79 101 79 99 / 0 40 30 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 101 77 98 / 10 40 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 89 / 10 30 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 10 30 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279538 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage across the northern half of the area. A few stronger storms could produce localized strong to damaging wind gusts. - Rain chances decrease Tuesday before a mostly dry cold front moves through Wednesday, bringing a shift to northerly winds and noticeably lower humidity. - Drier air behind the front will allow for cooler Thursday morning temperatures, especially along and north of I-12, with quiet and dry weather continuing late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today will be the most convectively active period of the short term as the approaching upper trough continues to weaken the mid- level cap that has been in place the last few days. Convective temperatures are generally around 91-92 degrees this afternoon, which most locations should begin reaching around 21z. That timing lines up well with the latest CAM guidance, which has trended towards greater coverage compared to previous runs, particularly across the northern half of the area. Given the improved agreement and higher confidence, PoPs were increased around 21z in those areas. Convection should initially be tied to differential heating and any lingering boundaries before storm-scale outflows increasingly take over. Deep-layer shear remains very weak, so storms should largely remain pulse-type or loosely organized multicells. Even so, strong instability and favorable thermodynamic profiles should support efficient downdraft acceleration with the stronger cores, and an isolated strong to severe downburst cannot be ruled out near peak heating. Damaging wind would be the main concern, though the overall severe threat remains limited by the weak shear and the relatively short-lived nature of individual cells. The CAMs are also fairly consistent in convection winding down quickly this evening, with coverage decreasing after sunset this evening and most activity largely finished around 03z. Tuesday looks noticeably less active as the upper trough pulls farther east and northwesterly flow develops aloft. Enough low- level moisture and instability should remain for isolated afternoon convection, but forcing will be weaker and overall coverage should be lower than today. The better opportunity appears to favor the eastern and northeastern portions of the area where deeper moisture should linger a little longer. Farther west, increasing subsidence and slightly drier air aloft should make convective initiation more difficult. With less rain and cloud coverage, temperatures should respond accordingly and remain quite warm through the afternoon. By Wednesday, attention turns to a cold front dropping south through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This does not look like a particularly active frontal passage locally, as surface high pressure builds quickly behind the boundary and deeper moisture is steadily displaced southward. Any meaningful precipitation signal remains weak, so the frontal passage will likely be easier to identify through a wind shift and falling dewpoints than through shower activity. The front should work through much of the area during the day and evening, with noticeably drier air beginning to filter into the northern half of the CWA by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The biggest change Thursday will be the arrival of a noticeably drier air mass behind Wednesday`s front rather than any substantial cooldown. Northerly to northeasterly flow will continue advecting lower dewpoints into the area, and guidance has become more convincing that the drier air will reach further south by Thursday morning. With that in mind, overnight lows were nudged downward along and north of I-12 where lower dewpoints and better radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall more efficiently. The New Orleans metro and immediate coastal areas should remain somewhat warmer given the usual urban and marine influences. Upper ridging building overhead will otherwise keep conditions dry, with warm afternoon temperatures but noticeably lower humidity. The ridge should remain the dominant feature through the remainder of the long-term period, keeping convection largely suppressed and resulting in a fairly quiet late-week forecast. Surface high pressure will gradually shift east Friday and into the weekend, allowing easterly to southeasterly flow and a slow return of low- level moisture. Humidity should therefore begin creeping back upward by Saturday and Sunday, but moisture recovery appears gradual enough that any convection should remain isolated at best through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Not all terminals will be impacted by TSRA today, but there will be more storms around which will cause tempo IFR conditions for those that are impacted. All activity is expected to begin weakening after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the first half of the week, with light winds and relatively low seas outside of scattered thunderstorms. Convection will be most numerous this afternoon and evening, and any stronger storms could produce brief periods of gusty and erratic along with locally higher waves. Winds should remain fairly light Tuesday before a cold front moves through the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Behind the front, northerly to northeasterly flow will strengthen as high pressure builds across the land, with the highest seas likely occurring late Wednesday night into Thursday, particularly the over the open Gulf waters. Conditions should gradually improve late in the week as the pressure gradient relaxes and the surface high shifts east. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279537 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1243 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool weather through at least Tuesday night. Breezy, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. - Dry and cool conditions persist through mid-week. Monitoring potential late-week coastal low that has potential to bring rain, strong winds, and coastal impacts depending on the track. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool weather through Tuesday night. Breezy, especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. Anomalous 1030+ mb high pressure over southeast Ontario Monday, builds eastward into Quebec Tuesday, providing dry and cool weather for Southern New England through at least Tue night. Northeast gradient will maintain breezy conditions, especially across southeast MA, including Cape Cod and Islands. Model soundings here support NE winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times, less wind away from the coastline. Abundant sunshine Monday afternoon, except post frontal strato-cu over southeast MA from departing frontal wave, combined with cool northeast flow over the relatively mild ocean. Mid/high clouds will preclude radiational cooling tonight, but a very dry airmass (dew pts in the 40s and 50s) will be sufficient for min temps to fall into 40s, except low to mid 50s along the coast, including metro Boston, Providence and Hartford. Tuesday, short wave over the OH valley today spreads mid/high clouds into SNE tonight and Tue. However mid level confluent flow over the region will provide sufficient subsidence for dry weather to prevail. These mid/high clouds will yield filtered sunshine Tue. Cooler temps aloft (+7C to +9C) combined with subsidence inversion from 1030+ mb high, will yield another day of cooler than normal highs Tue, with highs only in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degs below normal. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and cool conditions persist through mid- week. Monitoring potential late-week coastal low that has potential to bring rain, strong winds, and coastal impacts depending on the track. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that an anomalously strong surface high will set up over Quebec and persist through late week. This will advect in a below normal airmass, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s alongside a prolonged period of northeasterly flow through the week. A weak low pressure system moves through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. There remains uncertainty regarding its northern extent; however, if it tracks north enough, a few light showers are possible. The higher probabilities for any showers will be for CT, south coast, and Cape/Islands. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions through mid-week. Attention turns to a developing coastal low late in the week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to highlight a slow-moving low developing and tracking northward toward the northeast coast by late-week. However, considerable spread remains in the exact track and strength of the low. Ensemble means have largely settled on a middle-ground solutions of the low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by a northward track into closer proximity of southern New England Thursday and Friday. Looking at individual members, tracks range from as far west as Long Island to near Cape Cod, to further offshore southeast or east of southern New England. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs have exhibited subtle shifts east/west in the cluster of low tracks, while the GEFS has show a subtle but consistent trend west. Regardless of the exact track, ensemble means bring the low close enough to bring strong gusts, rain, and coastal impacts(erosion/coastal flooding). It is important to note that the exact track and low strength will strongly influence the magnitude of gusts, QPF, and how far inland the rain extends. While the center of the low likely holds off until late week, marine and coastal impacts may begin as early as Wednesday. As the low deepens in the Mid-Atlantic, the robust high to the north will aid in tightening the regional pressure gradient, particularly across the southern coastal waters. This will support development of strong winds by Wednesday AM, well ahead of the primary low. The exact positioning and strength the associated areas of high/low pressure will dictate how strong the winds could be. There is growing confidence in Gale force(40mph+) for the southern coastal waters which has been heavily supported by the ECMWF and its ensemble, though the GEFS/GFS remain slightly weaker. A Gale Watch has been issued in these areas. As the system lifts northward expect strong gusts to continue if not strengthen and expand across portions of the waters. The ECMWF ensemble even shows low probabilities (10-25%) for greater than 45 mph gusts Thursday into Friday. Inland winds will also be gusty, though lighter than over the waters with gusts 25-35 mph, strongest along the immediate coast. This prolonged period of gusty northeasterly winds will build rough seas and elevate the threat for coastal erosion and flooding depending on the track. Given the aforementioned spread in track and intensity across models, rain amounts have also remained uncertain. Most guidance suggests the rain shield will clip at least the far eastern portions of MA with the 50th and upper percentiles shifting the shield further west. Some deterministic run and individual ensemble members indicate amounts > 1.0" which will require monitoring given this is a slow moving system. In summary, confidence is steadily increasing that a coastal will at least impact the coastal waters and coastal areas late this week. However, this is still far enough out that the details (track, strength, upper level pattern), so the exact impacts and magnitude are still uncertain at this time. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Today...High confidence forecast. VFR conditions throughout the region at 17z, except VFR cigs over southeast MA, including Cape and Islands. Trend is for VFR to overspread all regions later today and tonight, but MVFR cigs may return Tue across southeast MA, as a reinforcing surge of cool air aloft overspreads this area on NE flow. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt at times across southeast MA terminals. KBOS Terminal...high confidence in TAF. VFR and dry weather, with NE winds 10-15G20 kt at times. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR and dry weather with a modest NE wind 10-15 kt, gusting up to 20 kt at times. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High Confidence. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt at times will continue, as strong 1030+ mb high pressure over southeast Ontario on Monday, advects eastward into Quebec. This northeast fetch will yield rough seas on the ocean waters. Dry weather and good vsby prevail. Potential for gale force gusts appear to hold off until Wed and beyond. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ235-237-255-256-282-283. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1279533 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1008 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the next couple days. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to the low 100s. - Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or two are also possible. - Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The forecast is on track, so no updates are needed to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The last day of the Summer Solstice will not feel like a transition to fall thanks to an unseasonably warm/humid airmass fostered by a lingering mid-upper low over the Eastern Gulf. This feature should serve as a focus for another round of afternoon- evening showers and thunderstorms. The greatest convective potential is along/south of the I-10 corridor where prevailing NE winds converge with the Gulf coast seabreeze. Atlantic seabreeze-driven convection also aims to push westward into the Lower I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend. We will also have to monitor trends across the Upper MS Valley where a subtle shortwave acts as "wildcard" for thunderstorms to our west/NW where an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) stretches toward I- 85. The main threats are strong-gusty winds (isolated severe downbursts possible), frequent lightning, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures drop to the low 70s. These values are well above normal for late September. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The aforementioned mid-upper low loses definition on Tuesday as a northern stream upper trough digs down to the OH-TN Valley. Rain chances decrease in response with only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Convective forcing should be from the seabreeze and a pre-frontal surface trough from the NW. The latter is attendant to an SPC Marginal Risk spreads into I-185. On Wednesday a front dropping in from the north serves as the primary focus for convection. The highest rain chances are along/NE of the I-10 corridor and the SE FL Big Bend. A drying/cooling trend more akin to early Autumn ensues the remainder of the forecast period following frontal passage as a less humid airmass filters in via brisk NE winds. High and low temperatures prior to the front are forecast to be in the low 90s & low 70s - Tuesday through Thursday morning. Thereafter, highs/lows drop to the 80s/60s, which are closer to normal for the last week of September. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main aviation concerns this TAF cycle are patchy fog/low stratus early this morning and afternoon thunderstorms. Any flt restrictions improve by about 13Z with VFR prevailing the remainder of the period away from convection. The best potential for convective impacts are TLH/VLD/ECP where PROB30s for TSRA are in place 18-24Z. A NE wind is expected 5-7 kts. Storms diminish after sunset, and winds go lgt/calm, thus openining window for more patchy fog/low stratus, especially at VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Prevailing northeast winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes the next several days. Cautionary to perhaps advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following frontal passage. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms the next 3 days. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise, expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 There are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding, or ponding of water. Dry weather is expected late this week following frontal passage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 20 10 Panama City 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 20 10 Dothan 91 71 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 Albany 92 72 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 91 72 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 Cross City 90 73 90 73 / 40 20 30 20 Apalachicola 86 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279532 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1022 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is expected at times today. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday morning. - Rain chances will increase further by the middle of the week as tropical moisture spreads into the area. - Drier air associated with a cold front will arrive late week and into the weekend will bring a lower risk of excessive rainfall, though some rain chances will linger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A stormy morning for the Southeast Gulf waters with an occasional flare-up near the island chain. The convection to our north is slowly creeping south but there remains a high amount of uncertainty as to how far south it will get. The hi-res models which initialized the line of convection further south than it`s origin would stall it across the Keys today, especially the Lower and Middle Keys. This on top of higher tides could make flooding possible for the afternoon. Unfortunately, only time will tell how this plays out but did not feel confident enough to go out with likely PoPs for today. Have nudged down slightly to high-end chance for now. We will be turning more southerly through the day which would act an inhibiting wind direction for convection. This however, is mostly dictated in the lower levels (below 700 mb). At 700mb and higher we have the moisture, but an upper level low sits to our northwest. This displaces the Keys from the best source of lift and therefore is driving a lot of the uncertainty as to what will happen later today with convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 An upper-level low lingers in the eastern Gulf waters through tonight but will finally lift away from the area on Tuesday. However, weather conditions will continue to remain unsettled throughout most of the week as tropical moisture from the Caribbean spreads northward into the Keys into the middle of the week. As a result, rain chances will remain elevated with daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The main hazards that mariners can expect with this activity will be a daily occurence with gusty winds, lightning strikes, blinding downpours, and locally hazardous seas. Breezes will generally remain light to gentle for most of the week but brief periods of moderate breezes may occur at times, mainly in the evening and overnight hours. In addition, winds will be out of the south to southeast throughout most of the week but winds will start to shift more northerly by late week and into the weekend as a frontal boundary gradually pushes southward across coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Seas will also start to build by the end of the week and into the weekend as northeasterly swell increases in the wake of the frontal boundary, especially in the Straits of Florida. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions can be expected outside of any passing convection. Uncertainty is high that convection will develop either over the island chain or remain just to the north. Therefore, am trying to be judicial about VCSH/TS until the picture becomes more clear and will amend TAFs as warranted. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The upper level low that has dominated our weather pattern over the past several days still remains stalled just off the coast of west central Florida near the Tampa Bay area, though the influence of this feature will finally start to wane by the end of the day. For now, its presence is still felt as GOES-19 satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic flow to the cloud pattern across the Sunshine State. The 00Z KEY RAOB measured a deep southwesterly flow regime throughout the vertical column with little inhibition and abundant moisture with PWATs of 2.11 inches, though mid level temps were notably warmer than recent days at -4.7 C. Given that the proximity of the upper low is still close enough to our region to supply continued forcing for ascent, another active day of convection is generally expected to occur across the Florida Keys with today`s setup possibly favoring a reverse cloud line given a somewhat more southwest flow orientation. However, this depends on if enough low level veering ultimately occurs as there might remain just enough of a southerly component to prevent an ideal alignment with the Island Chain. Should a more organized cloud line develop later today, rain rates over land communities will need to be monitored closely as forecast soundings show corfidi upshear values generally less than 10 knots, possibly enhancing the potential for back building cells and quick accumulations. It should also be noted that several recent CAM solutions are highlighting some maximum QPF bullseye values of 4-6" through tonight and while it remains to be seen if these totals will be more favored over land or offshore, there is a reasonable threat for potential hydro impacts, especially in locations that received multiple rounds of heavy rainfall in short durations. As a result, WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through early Tuesday morning across the entire Island Chain. The aforementioned upper level low will open into a trough by tonight and lift away to the northeast, eventually getting absorbed into a mid latitude trough swinging across the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, remnant energy associated with this departing disturbance will lead to the development of a coastal low offshore of the Southeast US on Tuesday with the low pressure expected to then lift northeastward, deepening as it gains latitude. Eventually, it will stall and retrograde slightly as it meanders offshore of the mid-Atlantic and becoming increasingly occluded towards the end of the week. A cold front attached to this system is expected to drop southward across the central Florida peninsula by mid week with and will continue advancing further southward into late week across the south FL and into the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, ahead of this boundary, tropical moisture is forecast to surge northward across western Cuba and into the Florida Keys with peak moisture values expected to occur late Tuesday into Thursday as PWATs possibly reach as high as 2.5 inches. This moisture has its source region in the southwestern Caribbean Sea as it appears that an inverted trough feature pinches off from a larger Central American Gyre counter-clockwise circulation. This disturbance is generally expected to move westward after it crosses the Yucatan Channel as it encounters stout mid-level ridging in the Ark-La-Tex region, but the substantial increase in moisture advection expected across the Keys should yield several days of a heavy rainfall threat with likely to categorical PoPs mid week before the arrival of the aforementioned frontal boundary brings a drier air mass into the area by end of the week. However, this is not expected to be a very clean frontal passage at this time as deeper moisture doesn`t completely scour out of our area so PoPs should linger in the high chance to likely range through the end of the period. While it still remains a bit early in the season for the cooler air mass changes and corresponding cold air advection that typically follow cold frontal passages, the northerly flow late in the week should help shave off a degree or two from highs and also bring dewpoints a few degrees lower, which should still be noticeable after an extended period of the typical Florida summer humidity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 79 90 79 / 50 60 70 70 Marathon 88 80 88 80 / 40 60 60 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279531 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1008 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms through Wednesday. Few Strong Storms are Possible, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail. Localized Flooding Possible Due to Slow Storm Movement at Inland Locations - Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Early Tuesday morning, Mainly Inland. Locally Dense Fog at 1/4 mile expected at times - Strengthening Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine Hazards from Thursday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide Beginning Late Thursday && .UPDATE... A weak trough is located just offshore of the coast per latest analyses causing scattered shower activity and a few storms to develop at times. This activity is expected to gradually weaken as the trough opens up and dissipates as shown by latest guidance, moving inland during the day behind the diurnal sea breeze. No significant changes to the POP forecast with generally scattered showers and storms during the peak heating. Instability forecast is not too impressive, up to around the 1400-1700 J/kg. PWATs remain above normal, about 120 percent, so heavy rainfall is likely in the stronger storms if and when they develop this afternoon. Some hints from latest guidance that we adjust POPs down a bit rest of the day. Otherwise forecast is on track with adjustments for the POPs and sky cover. For tonight, another round of some fog is indicated in the guidance as well as low ceilings. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Early this Morning Across the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Southeast GA. - A Few Strong Storms will be Possible this Afternoon and Evening, with Localized Flood Potential Due to Slow Storm Motion at Inland Locations. Early morning surface analysis depicts a trough over the FL peninsula, with a weak pressure pattern in place across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a wavy stationary frontal boundary extends from coastal New England southwestward through the Mid- Atlantic states and the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. Otherwise, strong high pressure (1030 millibars) was building towards the Great Lakes states from southern Canada in the wake of this frontal boundary. Aloft...a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) that has been stationary just west of Tampa Bay is beginning to pivot slowly eastward, with a narrow ridge extending west of this feature across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A potent shortwave trough was otherwise digging over the northern and central Plains. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture remains in place area-wide, with PWAT values of 1.8 - 1.9 inches at inland locations in northeast FL and southeast GA and 2 - 2.1 inches for coastal locations and north central FL. Showers and thunderstorms were mostly confined to the offshore Atlantic waters, but a few showers that briefly produced some in- cloud lightning strikes overnight were moving slowly southwestward across western portions of Nassau County. Otherwise, fog and low stratus ceilings were expanding across the Suwannee Valley and mainly inland portions of southeast GA, with some locally dense fog being reported in the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in the low to mid 70s area-wide as of 08Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings may continue to expand early this morning across inland portions of northeast FL and southeast GA, with dense fog possible across the Suwannee Valley. Fog and low stratus should then dissipate by the mid-morning hours at inland locations. The aforementioned TUTT feature and its accompanying surface trough that have plagued the FL peninsula with widespread convection during the past weekend will lift northeastward across our area later today and this evening. A land breeze boundary currently over the near shore waters adjacent to coastal northeast FL and southeast GA is expected to trigger convection towards sunrise, with scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms likely moving onshore early this morning for locations north of St. Augustine. This activity should fade later this morning near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor, but another round of scattered convection will likely develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary this afternoon. Abundant tropical moisture and relatively cool temperatures aloft could cause a few storms to "pulse", with isolated stronger storms this afternoon west of the I-95 corridor potentially producing downburst winds of 35-45 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and localized flooding due to slow storm motion possible. Prevailing onshore winds and morning shower activity should keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s, while highs climb to the lower 90s for locations along and west of U.S. Highway 301, where heat index values will generally peak near 100. Showers and thunderstorms along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary should push west of the Alapaha and Suwannee Rivers early this evening. A break in activity is expected through the evening and overnight hours, but a round of coastal showers could develop during the predawn hours for locations along and east of I- 95. Fog and low stratus ceilings may develop towards sunrise for inland locations along the I-75 corridor and interior southeast GA, with lows generally falling to the low and mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: (Tuesday through Wednesday Night) - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Especially on Tuesday - Strengthening Northeasterly Conditions Wednesday and Wednesday Night A rather major shift in the pattern starts on Tuesday, especially coming to fruition throughout Wednesday and into Wednesday Night as a backdoor frontal boundary pushes towards and across the region, with continental high pressure ridging building in its wake. The dailies: Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Weak high pressure hangs on during this period, as well as some lingering energy aloft as a weakening upper trough lifts north and east of our area and an inverted trough develops diurnally east of the Florida Peninsula. This will persist a weak onshore flow, enhanced a bit by the sea breeze, with mainly scattered showers and some t`storms pushing inland. Similar to the previous few days, best chances for stronger storms will be generally inland west of I-95 during daytime heating in the afternoon/evening. Not a significant strong storm threat, though very high PWATs will result in heavy rain/minor flooding being the primary hazard potential in addition to some gusty downbursts and perhaps some isolated small hail. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s along and east of I-95, and the low 90s inland. Some coastal showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm are also expected again Tuesday Night, with otherwise dry and some clouds inland. Muggy lows in the low to mid 70s will be common. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: An upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday and southeastern states Wednesday Night, pushing a "combined" back door and traditional front through and south of the region. Along with increasing coverage of showers and isolated t`storms streaming onshore with the frontal boundary, an initial surge of northeasterly winds will also begin to impact the region, especially near the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Breeziest conditions will mainly hold off until late week (more on that below), but still expecting a general 10-20G25 type of onshore flow to develop. This will also knock the temps down a few degrees on average, especially near the coast with the stronger marine influence. Mid to upper 80s are generally expected I-95 east, and around or just over 90 inland. A secondary surge of breezy northeasterlies develop Wednesday Night as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure ridging building over the area. This will keep the winds up overnight but especially closer to the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm over the nearshore waters will make it towards the coast and just onshore at times. Breezier conditions will also keep morning fog potential lower inland. Lows will be most mild near the coast with mid 70s persisting, though upper 60s to low 70s will be expected inland. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: (Wednesday through Sunday): - Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations Thursday and Friday - Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend Surface high pressure will continue to extend down the eastern US states late this week, persisting breezy onshore flow for much of the area, but especially northeast FL. The strong flow will also correspond close with a full moon peaking on Saturday, and therefore will keep a close eye on expected coastal/river tide levels over the coming days as minor flooding will be possible around times of high tide. A rather robust upper trough/low will linger northeast of the region and pump a much drier northwest continental flow aloft late week and into the upcoming weekend, which looks to cut down chances for showers and t`storms to at least a certain degree late week and into the upcoming weekend as well, depending on how south and east the base of the upper trough digs and how much drier air is introduced. Regardless of exact magnitude/position, long term guidance is overall in good agreement that cooler and drier conditions will be in store for late week and potentially into/through the upcoming weekend as well, with onshore flow weakening as high pressure settles further southward. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Some low flight conditions around VQQ and possibly GNV early this morning before 13z, but otherwise increased moisture will lead to some MVFR cigs at other TAFs. Coastal showers expected to increase through the morning hours also leading to chances of MVFR vsby and cigs for JAX, SGJ, CRG, and SSI and possibly VQQ. Afternoon sea breeze and outflow boundaries will lead to more showers and storms by about noon to 1 PM, and advance inland to around VQQ and then GNV. Heavy rainfall may lead to some TEMPO IFR vsby as well. After about 20z, most of the showers and any storms probably will be past the coastal terminals, and so still affecting GNV into the evening hours. This convection should end for GNV terminal by at least 01z. VFR should be prevalent in the evening hours, but then potential for coastal showers again and possibly a storm overnight (near or after 06z) that could affect SGJ, CRG, and SSI so will probably show VCSH or VCTS. && .MARINE... A surface trough and an upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to local waters through Tuesday. By Wednesday night, strong high pressure well to the north will help push a backdoor cold front south into the area, allowing for another round of showers and thunderstorms, and a surge of northeast winds and building seas. This front will then trigger Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Wednesday night through Friday, with potential for Gale Force Wind Gusts from Thursday to early Friday morning. Breezy winds and elevated seas will slowly subside late Saturday night into Sunday. Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through Tuesday at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Wednesday afternoon, creating a higher end moderate risk at area beaches. A surge of north-northeasterly winds and building surf will arrive at area beaches on Wednesday evening, with a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches from Thursday through at least Saturday. A period of high surf conditions will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday at the northeast FL beaches, where breakers may build to the 6-7 foot range before gradually subsiding during the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Weak high pressure will remain in place across the area today, combined with a disturbance aloft will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Flow will be onshore again, with highest chances for storms being west of I-95. More stable onshore flow will keep dispersions only in the fair range at best, more favorable the further inland you go. Onshore flow and poor to fair dispersions hang on with a similar regime Tuesday before a cool front moves through on Wednesday, bringing a much stronger northeasterly wind surge and moderate to high range changes Wednesday through the rest of the week. Fog Potential...Patchy inland fog will be possible through Wednesday Morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will be on the rise later this week due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon, and minor coastal flooding during times of high tide appears to be likely along the Atlantic coast, beginning with the evening high tide on Thursday and likely continuing during high tide cycles through at least Saturday. Minor flooding may also become possible within the St. Johns River basin from Friday through the upcoming weekend around times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 70 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 SSI 87 74 87 76 / 30 30 30 30 JAX 88 70 89 72 / 40 20 40 10 SGJ 86 75 87 74 / 30 20 30 20 GNV 89 71 90 72 / 40 20 40 10 OCF 90 72 91 73 / 40 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279530 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Rain chances return this week - Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Rain chances will slowly increase early this week with low chances (less than 20%) beginning Monday and increasing to low to medium chance (20-45%) by mid-week. One thing we will be closing monitoring in future forecast is the wet bias of the NBM, which could be bumping the low chances up to medium. Despite whether it`s a low or medium chance, there is confidence some showers or storms will develop each afternoon with the seabreeze. While temperatures will be warm and above average this week, heat index values are expected to remain below 110 degrees with a moderate to high chance for heat- related impacts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions remain possible at ALI as a low cloud deck and patchy fog has been building over that region for the past 30 to 45 minutes. This should burn off by midmorning returning to VFR. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period. Winds will increase as the seabreeze comes in this evening with gusts around 15-20kts. They will subside a little after sunset around 02Z and become generally light and variable across South Texas. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Seas will decrease from 2-3 feet to 2 feet seas through Wednesday as light to gentle (BF 2-3) breezes continue. By midweek, gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breezes will develop, with seas increasing to 3-4 feet. A low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop midweek and continues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the weekend and into next week. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30% across all of South Texas Thursday through the period. With winds being light, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 0 Victoria 100 74 101 74 / 20 0 10 0 Laredo 102 76 100 75 / 10 0 20 10 Alice 99 74 98 74 / 20 0 20 10 Rockport 93 79 93 79 / 20 0 20 10 Cotulla 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 97 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279529 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 738 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next few days. - A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches. - A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower rain chances and slight cooling late week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today-Tue...An upper level (cut-off) low will continue to spin over the western FL peninsula today then open up into a trough and lift NE on Tue. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms both afternoons over land. Overnight/early morning showers and storms will continue over the Atlc, sparked this morning by a land breeze slowly pushing offshore. As diurnal heating develops, convection should develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift inland into the evening hours. Temps aloft remain cool today (-8C at 500mb) so a few strong storms are possible containing gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall 1-3". Temps are forecast to warm to -6C Tue as the upper low weakens/fills so risk of strong storms will decrease. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Wed-Sun...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great Lakes region Wed, then deepens into a strong cut-off low just off the mid Atlc coast late week with an assocd sfc low deepening near 990mb. This stacked low pressure system will not move much as high pressure to the north will create a blocking pattern into the weekend. In the low levels, a cool front will get driven southward into the Florida peninsula Wednesday with a secondary surge pushing the front south of the area by Friday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") will persist over the area Wed esp southern sections while the presence of the front maintains enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. N/NE winds are forecast to increase Thu as pressure gradient tightens supporting 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph spreading southward from Volusia into Brevard during Thu. Gusts near 30 mph are possible along the immediate Volusia coast Thursday aftn-eve. Max temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue. Drier air will filter down into central FL beginning Fri, lowering PoPs to 20-40% this weekend. Breezy NE flow continues, especially along the coast on Friday then decreasing slightly this weekend. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s. However, min temps will remain quite mild holding in the 70s due to the onshore flow. But as that onshore flow decreases, inland sections should drop into the mid and upper 60s Sat night/Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week as NE to E winds remain around 10 kts or less during the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight and early morning. However, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day, especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible, capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft. A cool front is forecast to cross the local Atlantic waters Thursday, bringing a surge of N/NE winds increasing to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral in the afternoon. Conditions look to deteriorate southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Small patch of LIFR stratus/fog near ISM is quickly lifting and is expected to diminish near 12Z. Isolated showers and possibly a storm may also brush northward along the Treasure Coast this morning, producing brief IFR/MVFR conditions. Scattered to numerous showers and storms then forecast into the afternoon with the inland moving east coast sea breeze. Have maintained VCTS starting at 17Z, with PROB30/TEMPO groups for most sites running from 18-21Z for most sites, excluding KDAB. Convection will then mostly diminish and push W/SW of the area by 00Z, but could still see some lingering areas of light rain and isolated storms into the evening. Light and variable winds this morning will pick up slightly out of the E/NE around 5-9 knots into the afternoon as sea breeze develops and shifts inland. Gusty and variable winds will be possible near any storms or heavier showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 74 88 74 / 30 10 40 10 MCO 89 73 90 74 / 60 20 60 10 MLB 87 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 30 VRB 87 73 88 73 / 50 20 60 30 LEE 90 73 90 74 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 88 73 90 74 / 50 10 60 10 ORL 88 74 90 75 / 50 10 60 10 FPR 87 72 88 73 / 60 20 70 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279528 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 647 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Sustained daily opportunity for rainfall, especially Wednesday and Thursday. - Continued hot temperatures, but no extremes. - Elevated risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period. However, the center of the high, positioned generally over east Texas, will produce a more easterly and moist flow off of the neighboring Gulf of America, with precipitable water values hovering near 2 inches. This will have the result of enhancing the daily seabreeze boundary, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the BRO CWFA. At this time, the best chances for precipitation are Wednesday and Thursday, with the best combination of moisture and easterly flow. Temperature-wise, above normal to well above normal values will occur, despite the autumnal equinox officially kicking-off on Tuesday 22 September at 7:04 PM CDT. Finally, winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a low to moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the sea breeze, with impacts most likely at MFE. HiRes models continue to show convection developing along the sea breeze this afternoon, moving into the vicinity of MFE by mid afternoon. The probability for convection at BRO and HRL remain too low for inclusion in the TAFs. Any showers or thunderstorms that do move over an airfield will likely be brief, but may produce MVFR to IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast with light and variable winds this morning increasing out of the east this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the next several days. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 20 10 40 10 HARLINGEN 99 76 98 76 / 20 10 40 10 MCALLEN 102 79 100 79 / 30 0 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 99 77 / 10 0 40 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 83 / 10 10 30 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 94 79 / 20 20 30 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279527 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 727 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 726 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The wet pattern for South FL will continue early this work week. An upper low over the northern part of the state will slowly lift to the northeast today and eventually get absorbed into the broader upper level flow on Tuesday. Meanwhile, moist southerly flow will be in place across South FL with HREF and forecast soundings showing PWAT values of 2.1-2.3 inches. Much like the past several days, convection coverage will likely be broader than what the Hi-res models are showing. Expected numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours both today and Tuesday, with the highest PoPs over the interior and east coast metro. While mean QPF values are generally 0.5-1 inch, highly efficient rainfall rates and slow moving storms will likely result in pockets of 2-4 inches across the area, and that is backed up by the HREF 6 hour max totals late in the day. Therefore, several instances of urban and poor drainage flooding should be expected and prepared for, especially across vulnerable portions of the east coast metro. WPC is carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the metro for both today and Tuesday. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be generally in the upper 80s to around 90, with the high temps occurring early in the afternoon before rain-cooled temps arrive. Low temps tonight will be in the low to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day. Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 L/V winds this morning will become SE at 5-10 kts across the east coast terminals, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. TEMPOs are in place for east coast terminals this afternoon as scattered SHRA/TSRA along sea breeze boundaries may produce brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Winds will become L/V once again across all terminals after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 76 87 76 / 70 40 70 60 West Kendall 85 75 86 75 / 70 40 70 60 Opa-Locka 86 77 87 75 / 70 40 70 60 Homestead 87 77 87 76 / 70 50 70 70 Fort Lauderdale 87 76 87 76 / 70 40 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60 Pembroke Pines 87 75 87 75 / 70 40 80 60 West Palm Beach 88 75 88 75 / 60 40 80 50 Boca Raton 87 75 88 75 / 70 40 80 60 Naples 87 75 88 75 / 50 40 80 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279525 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 723 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Inner southern waters added to the Gale Watch. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers exit early this morning, pushing offshore of the Cape and Islands by late morning. Breezy and cool this afternoon. - Dry and cool conditions persist through mid-week. Monitoring potential late-week coastal low that has potential to bring rain, strong winds, and coastal impacts depending on the track. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Light showers exit early this morning, pushing offshore of the Cape and Islands by late morning. Breezy and cool this afternoon. Light showers shift eastward across the eastern parts of the region early this morning. The remaining showers likely push of the Cape and Island by late-morning. Expect areas of patchy fog early this morning. A strong surface shifts east across the upper Great Lakes pushing high pressure in behind the exited system today. This will bring in a dry and cooler than normal airmass into the region starting today. Mid-level dry air pushes in quickly within the northerly flow, with some drying in the lower levels through the morning based on model soundings. This will result in gradual improvements in the low clouds and eventual some breaks in the clouds mid morning into the afternoon. Low clouds may linger longer for the Cape and Islands. Another cooler day expected today with 850mb temperatures 10-13C yielding highs in the low to mid 60s. Some spots may reach upper 60s in the valleys. Expect northeasterly onshore flow today. As a strong high builds in to the northwest the pressure gradient tightens supporting breezy N/NE winds for the south coast extending to the Cape/Islands with gusts 20-25 mph. Mostly cloudy conditions tonight. Despite the limited radiational cooling, temperatures should fall into the 40s across most of the interior. Urban areas and areas near the coast will trend warmer in the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and cool conditions persist through mid- week. Monitoring potential late-week coastal low that has potential to bring rain, strong winds, and coastal impacts depending on the track. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that an anomalously strong surface high will set up over Quebec and persist through late week. This will advect in a below normal airmass, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s alongside a prolonged period of northeasterly flow through the week. A weak low pressure system moves through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. There remains uncertainty regarding its northern extent; however, if it tracks north enough, a few light showers are possible. The higher probabilities for any showers will be for CT, south coast, and Cape/Islands. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions through mid-week. Attention turns to a developing coastal low late in the week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to highlight a slow-moving low developing and tracking northward toward the northeast coast by late-week. However, considerable spread remains in the exact track and strength of the low. Ensemble means have largely settled on a middle-ground solutions of the low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by a northward track into closer proximity of southern New England Thursday and Friday. Looking at individual members, tracks range from as far west as Long Island to near Cape Cod, to further offshore southeast or east of southern New England. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs have exhibited subtle shifts east/west in the cluster of low tracks, while the GEFS has show a subtle but consistent trend west. Regardless of the exact track, ensemble means bring the low close enough to bring strong gusts, rain, and coastal impacts(erosion/coastal flooding). It is important to note that the exact track and low strength will strongly influence the magnitude of gusts, QPF, and how far inland the rain extends. While the center of the low likely holds off until late week, marine and coastal impacts may begin as early as Wednesday. As the low deepens in the Mid-Atlantic, the robust high to the north will aid in tightening the regional pressure gradient, particularly across the southern coastal waters. This will support development of strong winds by Wednesday AM, well ahead of the primary low. The exact positioning and strength the associated areas of high/low pressure will dictate how strong the winds could be. There is growing confidence in Gale force(40mph+) for the southern coastal waters which has been heavily supported by the ECMWF and its ensemble, though the GEFS/GFS remain slightly weaker. A Gale Watch has been issued in these areas. As the system lifts northward expect strong gusts to continue if not strengthen and expand across portions of the waters. The ECMWF ensemble even shows low probabilities (10-25%) for greater than 45 mph gusts Thursday into Friday. Inland winds will also be gusty, though lighter than over the waters with gusts 25-35 mph, strongest along the immediate coast. This prolonged period of gusty northeasterly winds will build rough seas and elevate the threat for coastal erosion and flooding depending on the track. Given the aforementioned spread in track and intensity across models, rain amounts have also remained uncertain. Most guidance suggests the rain shield will clip at least the far eastern portions of MA with the 50th and upper percentiles shifting the shield further west. Some deterministic run and individual ensemble members indicate amounts > 1.0" which will require monitoring given this is a slow moving system. In summary, confidence is steadily increasing that a coastal will at least impact the coastal waters and coastal areas late this week. However, this is still far enough out that the details (track, strength, upper level pattern), so the exact impacts and magnitude are still uncertain at this time. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing and ceilings. IFR/MVFR improving to VFR through the day, though exact timing is lower confidence. General trend is ceilings improving to VFR 09-14Z for interior terminals and 13-16Z for more east terminals (BOS, PVD). Improvement trend will be likely slow for Cape/Islands potentially not VFR until 18Z-21Z. NNE to NE winds increase to 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the Cape/Islands. Gusts diminish by 00Z, although sustained winds 10-12 kts possible for Cape/Islands early evening. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR. Lower-end VFR ceilings are possible near the southern coast and Islands closer to 12Z. NNE winds 8-12 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt across the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Ceilings improving to VFR 14-16Z. NNE winds 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts developing after 15Z through around 21Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High Confidence. Any remaining showers end mid to late morning across the coastal waters. Winds N/NE today with gusts prompting Small Craft headlines for all southern waters and Cape Cod Bay through the afternoon. Seas build to 3-5 ft, with the highest seas across the outer waters. Winds subside Monday evening, but only for a brief time as winds increase Tuesday with rougher seas (4-7 ft). Winds continue to strength into mid-week and furthermore into late week ahead of an approaching coastal low. This has promoted a Gale Watch for the southern coastal waters. The inner southern waters have been added into the Watch in the most recent update. There is still uncertainty in the timing of the Gale force gusts and how widespread they will be. Strong winds and rough seas continue through late week. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ235-237-255-256-282-283. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1279523 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 613 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A few patches of light fog are present mainly over interior areas and will burn off shortly after sunrise. The forecast is on track for today with no changes planned. /29 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Through Wednesday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast opens into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, which then shifts east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, shift a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the region. The push is greater west of the Mississippi River, shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area south. Guidance is inconsistent with the shift, with some dropping moisture levels to 1.5" or less by Wednesday evening (most mesoscale models) to 1.5"-2" (the global models and ensembles). Any which way one cuts it, POPs drop into mid week. In combination with the building upper ridge, scattered PoPs Monday drop to isolated, seabreeze driven by Wednesday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-1000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible each afternoon/evening into mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal norms into mid week. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range are expected. Boundary layer moisture remains high enough for heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range. Low temperatures do see a bit of a drop with the drop in deep layer moisture, from low to mid 70s Monday night, to the upper 60s to around 70 inland, mid 70s along the coast Wednesday night. Thursday on...as the surface low off the East Coast organizes a bit more, then moves north along the coast, a secondary cold front moves southwest along the Appalachians, reinforcing the dry air over the Southeast along with dropping temperatures to near seasonal norms by the end of the coming weekend. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through the week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf coast in the coming weekend, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms develop across much of the area this afternoon and linger into the evening hours. MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. Northeast to east winds around 5 knots are expected to develop this morning, then become southerly near the coast in the afternoon. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 72 92 72 / 40 20 30 0 Pensacola 90 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 0 Destin 89 75 90 76 / 20 20 20 0 Evergreen 93 68 94 68 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 95 70 95 69 / 30 20 20 20 Camden 94 71 94 69 / 20 20 20 10 Crestview 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279522 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 613 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Highest risk of a shower/storm will be in our northern counties and along the sea breeze boundary in our southern counties. - Hot temperatures with daily isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week. - Less humid later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid/upper WV imagery coupled with 500 MB RAP analysis indicate that ridging overhead has broken down somewhat, with a modest troughing feature setting up across northern and central Texas. This system should supply a little extra lift to the SE TX atmosphere, which will at least give a slight boost to diurnal PoPs on Monday. Already we have had showers and thunderstorms in central Texas Sunday evening and couldn`t rule out a few showers managing to make into our northwestern-most areas overnight. For Monday, the best chance of receiving isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across our northern counties and in areas that experience the sea breeze boundary (southern / coastal counties). Tuesday and Wednesday will also feature a chance of isolated showers/storms, albeit lower and more associated with the sea breeze. However, a plurality of ensembles suggest Wednesday may have better chance of showers/storms due to an approaching boundary (spoken about in the next paragraph). Afternoon temperatures should be well into the 90s with high humidity and triple digit heat indicies. Mid/upper ridging becomes more stout over central CONUS as a trough digs south over E CONUS during the second half of the week. This will keep things toasty while our friends back east experience a good cool down. However, it still appears a backdoor boundary of sorts may drop humidity levels by Thursday, with temperatures possibly dropping a few degrees as well. That being said, late- week temperatures are likely to skew a little warmer than normal. There`s some ensemble support for a more meaningful front around the 1st of October. But it`s much too early to get excited about that. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light winds this morning will strengthen and become southeasterly during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible as well through the afternoon, mainly along a lingering boundary around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and along the sea breeze. Winds will become light and variable tonight with cloud decks lowering again to around 2000-3000ft early Tuesday morning. Outside of brief patchy fog in spots, VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds (7-15 KT) Monday, are expected to become northeasterly by Tuesday. These winds should become more consistently moderate to occasionally fresh (10-20 KT) by Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a daily risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Gulf seas of 1 to 3 feet may increase to the 2 to 4 foot range by week`s end. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 75 98 76 / 30 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 95 77 97 79 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 92 83 / 20 10 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279521 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 701 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. Overall forecast thinking remains similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Storms on Tuesday, followed by unsettled conditions mid-week trending cool and dry for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Storms on Tuesday, followed by unsettled conditions mid-week trending cool and dry for the weekend. Ill-defined 5h cutoff lingering over central FL today will weaken and eventually begin drifting northeast tonight into Tue. An enhanced area of deeper moisture and some PVA associated with the cutoff will rotate onshore later today. While these features are weak, the timing does open the door for isolated weak afternoon showers along the coast, especially the SC coast where PVA is strongest. What`s left of the 5h low, along with its moisture and weak PVA, brush the area Tue, increasing rain chances. Best chances will be afternoon and evening when surface based instability peaks. Environment is not really supportive of strong or severe storms, so while lightning will be a risk, severe weather potential is very low. Rain chances remain elevated Wed following the passage of a cold front, driven south by a 5h trough early Wed. Post front a cooler, more stable air mass arrives with a wedge setting up at some point Wed. More likely to see true rain Wed/Thu vs convection, although forecast soundings suggest at least some potential for elevated convection Wed, especially near the coast, as the 5h trough axis passes. The trough ends up cutoff just off the Mid-Atlantic coast for the later half of the week. Deep dry air and cooler temperatures follow, leading to a stretch of dry weather with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect VFR to continue through today and into tonight with isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops amd shifts inland this afternoon. Confidence is too low for an impact to include PROB30 groups, but a brief restriction cannot be ruled out if a small shower happens to pass over a terminal. Another chance for low cigs and fog exists tonight, although increasing winds and the arrival of showers near the coast later in the night will limit this potential. Confidence is low to moderate at this time, with the best chances anticipated at inland terminals. Extended Outlook...Low cigs/vsby restrictions may linger into Tuesday mid-morning, followed by a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in showers/thunderstorms/rain from Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Waters remain under the influence of an ill-defined pressure gradient into Tue night before the passage of a cold front ushers in an extended period of enhanced northeast flow. Gradient remains tight into the weekend with low pressure lingering offshore. Headlines will likely be required at some point on Wed and given the strength and duration of the northerly flow seas could require several days of headlines before conditions slowly improve over the weekend. Currently does not appear winds will reach gale thresholds, Wed night or Thu, but something to keep an eye on. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279520 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 711 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Daily thunderstorms are expected across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina today with rain chances increasing Tuesday and Wednesday. - 2) A mid-week cold front will bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Daily thunderstorms are expected across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina this weekend and into early next week. An increase in rain chances is expected by the middle of next week, with cooler temperatures thereafter. Today: Very little change in the pattern from the past few days with an upper level low parked over the Florida Peninsula. Moisture continues to stream are the upper low and into the area as PWATS continue to hover around 2 inches across the area. Given rather weak forcing aloft storms will likely be more isolated in nature focused along the slowly advancing seabreeze. Tuesday: The aforementioned upper low across the Florida Peninsula is anticipated to drift north-northeast across the Southeast United States, eventually phasing with a longwave trough shifting across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast mid-week. Forcing associated with this feature will support increased shower and thunderstorm activity, along with the potential for a few strong or marginally severe thunderstorms Tuesday. The presence of deep moisture (PWATS 2+ inches) could also produce a threat for localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2: A mid-week cold front will bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. A cold front is progged to push south across the forecast area as an upper trough digs into the Southeast. Model guidance has slowed the cold front`s progression across the area to late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. While the overnight/early morning arrival will limit the severe weather threat Wednesday morning, especially across southeast South Carolina, afternoon heating south of the front will destabilize the warm and moist airmass out ahead. This creates a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, primarily across southeast Georgia. Following the front, an inland wedge pattern will set up, and cool and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s in southeast South Carolina and the low to mid 80s in southeast Georgia, roughly a few degrees below normal for late September. Gusty post-frontal winds of 25 to 30 mph are also likely on Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the area. A few scattered showers and storms are occurring across coastal GA and SC which may result in temporary reductions to MVFR vsbys and ceilings. Overall shower and thunderstorm chances look very low for Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain light out of the northeast becoming easterly during the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: The main potential for flight restrictions will come from afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected to come Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front shifts across the area. Post-frontal gusty winds will likely impact the terminals Thursday. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: A decaying surface high pressure ahead of a slowly approaching cold front will continue the benign marine weather conditions across our local waters. Periodic showers and thunderstorms during this time may be capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning. Tuesday through Saturday: Quiet marine conditions are expected Tuesday before a cold front pushes through Wednesday. In the wake of the front, an inland wedge pattern coupled with a deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive a strong surge in northeasterly winds. Conditions will deteriorate Wednesday evening with wind gusts peaking near gale force Thursday evening. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed, and Gale Watches/Warnings could be required. In addition, seas will build alongside the surge, peaking between 5-9 ft Thursday night. Conditions will begin to improve Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Coastal Flooding: We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal flooding Thursday as strong northeasterly winds combine with astronomical high tide. Current forecast for Charleston Harbor is 6.9 Ft MLLW. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279519 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 651 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM Monday for the I-10 Corridor West of Duval County, the Suwannee Valley, and Portions of Inland Southeast GA - Scattered Thunderstorms through Wednesday. Few Strong Storms are Possible, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail. Localized Flooding Possible Due to Slow Storm Movement at Inland Locations - Strengthening Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine Hazards from Thursday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide Beginning Late Thursday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Early this Morning Across the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Southeast GA. - A Few Strong Storms will be Possible this Afternoon and Evening, with Localized Flood Potential Due to Slow Storm Motion at Inland Locations. Early morning surface analysis depicts a trough over the FL peninsula, with a weak pressure pattern in place across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a wavy stationary frontal boundary extends from coastal New England southwestward through the Mid- Atlantic states and the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. Otherwise, strong high pressure (1030 millibars) was building towards the Great Lakes states from southern Canada in the wake of this frontal boundary. Aloft...a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) that has been stationary just west of Tampa Bay is beginning to pivot slowly eastward, with a narrow ridge extending west of this feature across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A potent shortwave trough was otherwise digging over the northern and central Plains. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture remains in place area-wide, with PWAT values of 1.8 - 1.9 inches at inland locations in northeast FL and southeast GA and 2 - 2.1 inches for coastal locations and north central FL. Showers and thunderstorms were mostly confined to the offshore Atlantic waters, but a few showers that briefly produced some in- cloud lightning strikes overnight were moving slowly southwestward across western portions of Nassau County. Otherwise, fog and low stratus ceilings were expanding across the Suwannee Valley and mainly inland portions of southeast GA, with some locally dense fog being reported in the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in the low to mid 70s area-wide as of 08Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings may continue to expand early this morning across inland portions of northeast FL and southeast GA, with dense fog possible across the Suwannee Valley. Fog and low stratus should then dissipate by the mid-morning hours at inland locations. The aforementioned TUTT feature and its accompanying surface trough that have plagued the FL peninsula with widespread convection during the past weekend will lift northeastward across our area later today and this evening. A land breeze boundary currently over the near shore waters adjacent to coastal northeast FL and southeast GA is expected to trigger convection towards sunrise, with scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms likely moving onshore early this morning for locations north of St. Augustine. This activity should fade later this morning near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor, but another round of scattered convection will likely develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary this afternoon. Abundant tropical moisture and relatively cool temperatures aloft could cause a few storms to "pulse", with isolated stronger storms this afternoon west of the I-95 corridor potentially producing downburst winds of 35-45 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and localized flooding due to slow storm motion possible. Prevailing onshore winds and morning shower activity should keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s, while highs climb to the lower 90s for locations along and west of U.S. Highway 301, where heat index values will generally peak near 100. Showers and thunderstorms along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary should push west of the Alapaha and Suwannee Rivers early this evening. A break in activity is expected through the evening and overnight hours, but a round of coastal showers could develop during the predawn hours for locations along and east of I- 95. Fog and low stratus ceilings may develop towards sunrise for inland locations along the I-75 corridor and interior southeast GA, with lows generally falling to the low and mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: (Tuesday through Wednesday Night) - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Especially on Tuesday - Strengthening Northeasterly Conditions Wednesday and Wednesday Night A rather major shift in the pattern starts on Tuesday, especially coming to fruition throughout Wednesday and into Wednesday Night as a backdoor frontal boundary pushes towards and across the region, with continental high pressure ridging building in its wake. The dailies: Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Weak high pressure hangs on during this period, as well as some lingering energy aloft as a weakening upper trough lifts north and east of our area and an inverted trough develops diurnally east of the Florida Peninsula. This will persist a weak onshore flow, enhanced a bit by the sea breeze, with mainly scattered showers and some t`storms pushing inland. Similar to the previous few days, best chances for stronger storms will be generally inland west of I-95 during daytime heating in the afternoon/evening. Not a significant strong storm threat, though very high PWATs will result in heavy rain/minor flooding being the primary hazard potential in addition to some gusty downbursts and perhaps some isolated small hail. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s along and east of I-95, and the low 90s inland. Some coastal showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm are also expected again Tuesday Night, with otherwise dry and some clouds inland. Muggy lows in the low to mid 70s will be common. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: An upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday and southeastern states Wednesday Night, pushing a "combined" back door and traditional front through and south of the region. Along with increasing coverage of showers and isolated t`storms streaming onshore with the frontal boundary, an initial surge of northeasterly winds will also begin to impact the region, especially near the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Breeziest conditions will mainly hold off until late week (more on that below), but still expecting a general 10-20G25 type of onshore flow to develop. This will also knock the temps down a few degrees on average, especially near the coast with the stronger marine influence. Mid to upper 80s are generally expected I-95 east, and around or just over 90 inland. A secondary surge of breezy northeasterlies develop Wednesday Night as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure ridging building over the area. This will keep the winds up overnight but especially closer to the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm over the nearshore waters will make it towards the coast and just onshore at times. Breezier conditions will also keep morning fog potential lower inland. Lows will be most mild near the coast with mid 70s persisting, though upper 60s to low 70s will be expected inland. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: (Wednesday through Sunday): - Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations Thursday and Friday - Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend Surface high pressure will continue to extend down the eastern US states late this week, persisting breezy onshore flow for much of the area, but especially northeast FL. The strong flow will also correspond close with a full moon peaking on Saturday, and therefore will keep a close eye on expected coastal/river tide levels over the coming days as minor flooding will be possible around times of high tide. A rather robust upper trough/low will linger northeast of the region and pump a much drier northwest continental flow aloft late week and into the upcoming weekend, which looks to cut down chances for showers and t`storms to at least a certain degree late week and into the upcoming weekend as well, depending on how south and east the base of the upper trough digs and how much drier air is introduced. Regardless of exact magnitude/position, long term guidance is overall in good agreement that cooler and drier conditions will be in store for late week and potentially into/through the upcoming weekend as well, with onshore flow weakening as high pressure settles further southward. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Some low flight conditions around VQQ, SSI, and possibly GNV early this morning before 13z, but otherwise increased moisture will lead to some MVFR cigs at other TAFs. Scattered coastal showers expected to increase through the morning hours also leading to chances of MVFR vsby and cigs for JAX, SGJ, CRG, and SSI and possibly VQQ. Afternoon sea breeze and outflow boundaries will lead to more showers and storms by about noon to 1 PM, and advance inland to around VQQ and then GNV. Heavy rainfall may lead to some TEMPO IFR vsby as well. After about 20z, most of the showers and any storms probably will be past the coastal terminals, and so still affecting GNV into the evening hours. This convection should end for GNV terminal by at least 01z. VFR should be prevalent in the evening hours, but then potential for coastal showers again and possibly a storm overnight (near or after 06z) that could affect SGJ, CRG, and SSI so will probably show VCSH or VCTS. && .MARINE... Surface troughing and a disturbance aloft located just west of Tampa Bay will lift northeastward across our local waters on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through Tuesday. East-northeasterly winds will prevail, with afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to easterly for the nearshore waters through midweek. Strong high pressure building over New England on Wednesday will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday night, driving a frontal boundary southward across our area that will be accompanied by widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. A surge of north-northeasterly winds will then overspread our local waters in the wake of this frontal passage on Wednesday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across our local waters from late Wednesday night through Friday. Winds may occasionally gust to Gale Force on Thursday afternoon and evening. Breezy northeasterly winds and elevated seas may continue into Saturday before subsiding on Saturday night and Sunday. Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through Tuesday at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Wednesday afternoon, creating a higher end moderate risk at area beaches. A surge of north-northeasterly winds and building surf will arrive at area beaches on Wednesday evening, with a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches from Thursday through at least Saturday. A period of high surf conditions will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday at the northeast FL beaches, where breakers may build to the 6-7 foot range before gradually subsiding during the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Weak high pressure will remain in place across the area today, combined with a disturbance aloft will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Flow will be onshore again, with highest chances for storms being west of I-95. More stable onshore flow will keep dispersions only in the fair range at best, more favorable the further inland you go. Onshore flow and poor to fair dispersions hang on with a similar regime Tuesday before a cool front moves through on Wednesday, bringing a much stronger northeasterly wind surge and moderate to high range changes Wednesday through the rest of the week. Fog Potential...Patchy inland fog will be possible through Wednesday Morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will be on the rise later this week due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon, and minor coastal flooding during times of high tide appears to be likely along the Atlantic coast, beginning with the evening high tide on Thursday and likely continuing during high tide cycles through at least Saturday. Minor flooding may also become possible within the St. Johns River basin from Friday through the upcoming weekend around times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 70 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 SSI 88 74 87 76 / 30 30 30 30 JAX 89 70 89 72 / 40 20 40 10 SGJ 88 75 87 74 / 30 20 30 20 GNV 89 71 90 72 / 40 20 40 10 OCF 90 72 91 73 / 40 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ162. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279518 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 548 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through much of the week, with highs near records thru mid week and generally above normal thru the weekend. - Rain chances will be highest today into Tuesday, but rain amounts will generally be less than one half inch this week as not much rain is expected for the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 The synoptic picture is quite easy to see with a upper low and trough over the Pacific coast. Another upper low over the northern Rockies and yet another centered over Florida(more of a TUTT feature). The upper highs are also extensive with a continental non-stacked high over northern Mexico. And the second upper maritime high over the Bahamas extending into the Caribbean. Today we will see the upper trough currently extending from southern TX NE to near the Great Lakes move east and will eventually be located over our region later today. This will definitely help weaken cap strength today and this is the reason for higher precip numbers than we have seen lately. We then fall under a N to NW flow regime by Tue which is not reflected in the mid level flow, so we should move back to more normalized ditribution levels of sh/ts. By late Tue into early Wed, we should begin to see a cold front moving south through Arkansas and northern Miss which will be visiting the gulf coast states by Wed night. The high behind this front is quite aggressive which is not totally abnormal for this time of year but is a bit early. The high looks to bridge the front along its direction of movement axis, which is over our area. This would effectively take precip numbers to 10% or less for Wed, even as the front passes late Wed night which would mainly be seen by dew pt gradients. Again, this type of pattern is very Octoberish, but does start some years by the end of September and leads to some of the driest weather we get during the entire year. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Heading into Thursday, the upper level ridge will be nearly centered over our area. This in turn keeps PoPs low, which is shown with no PoPs over 10% for any area onshore through Saturday. The outer waters may see some isolated convection, but nothing substantial. A deepening trough off the east coast and surface high pressure over the TN valley will begin to break the ridge down late Friday. This also introduces northeasterly flow in the lower levels, which brings in a little bit of drier air. This is shown in the afternoon dew points falling into the mid to upper 60s for many on Friday and Saturday. While the beginning of the long term period will see the continuation of above average high temperatures, heading into the weekend many areas fall a couple degrees into the upper 80s. We also see a downtrend in the morning lows, which drop into the mid to upper 60s for many especially northern areas. With this being pretty late into the forecast, some uncertainty remains and we will have to watch the trends of the upper level pattern over the east coast. HRL && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Not all terminals will be impacted by TSRA today, but there will be more storms around which will cause tempo IFR conditions for those that are impacted. All activity is expected to begin weakening after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Broad surface high remains close to the northern Gulf Coast, maintaining a weak pressure gradient and generally benign marine conditions. Winds will remain light and somewhat variable nearshore, becoming more consistently southerly during the afternoons. Storm coverage will increase today and any thunderstorm could briefly produce locally higher winds and seas along with frequent lightning. A more persistent northeast to east flow should develop Wednesday through the latter part of the week but remain 15 knots or less. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279517 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 634 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the next couple days. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to the low 100s. - Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or two are also possible. - Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The last day of the Summer Solstice will not feel like a transition to fall thanks to an unseasonably warm/humid airmass fostered by a lingering mid-upper low over the Eastern Gulf. This feature should serve as a focus for another round of afternoon- evening showers and thunderstorms. The greatest convective potential is along/south of the I-10 corridor where prevailing NE winds converge with the Gulf coast seabreeze. Atlantic seabreeze-driven convection also aims to push westward into the Lower I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend. We will also have to monitor trends across the Upper MS Valley where a subtle shortwave acts as "wildcard" for thunderstorms to our west/NW where an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) stretches toward I- 85. The main threats are strong-gusty winds (isolated severe downbursts possible), frequent lightning, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures drop to the low 70s. These values are well above normal for late September. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The aforementioned mid-upper low loses definition on Tuesday as a northern stream upper trough digs down to the OH-TN Valley. Rain chances decrease in response with only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Convective forcing should be from the seabreeze and a pre-frontal surface trough from the NW. The latter is attendant to an SPC Marginal Risk spreads into I-185. On Wednesday a front dropping in from the north serves as the primary focus for convection. The highest rain chances are along/NE of the I-10 corridor and the SE FL Big Bend. A drying/cooling trend more akin to early Autumn ensues the remainder of the forecast period following frontal passage as a less humid airmass filters in via brisk NE winds. High and low temperatures prior to the front are forecast to be in the low 90s & low 70s - Tuesday through Thursday morning. Thereafter, highs/lows drop to the 80s/60s, which are closer to normal for the last week of September. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main aviation concerns this TAF cycle are patchy fog/low stratus early this morning and afternoon thunderstorms. Any flt restrictions improve by about 13Z with VFR prevailing the remainder of the period away from convection. The best potential for convective impacts are TLH/VLD/ECP where PROB30s for TSRA are in place 18-24Z. A NE wind is expected 5-7 kts. Storms diminish after sunset, and winds go lgt/calm, thus openining window for more patchy fog/low stratus, especially at VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Prevailing northeast winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes the next several days. Cautionary to perhaps advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following frontal passage. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms the next 3 days. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise, expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 There are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding, or ponding of water. Dry weather is expected late this week following frontal passage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 20 10 Panama City 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 20 10 Dothan 91 71 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 Albany 92 72 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 91 72 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 Cross City 90 73 90 73 / 40 20 30 20 Apalachicola 86 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279516 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 545 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued starting this evening, with Gale Watches being issued for Tuesday evening through Thursday. Lowered high temperatures a little Wednesday as cold air damming sets up across the area. Also removed the chance of thunder for Wednesday as the environment will be too stable, with the exception of the NC coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area. 2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. 3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area. Early morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure set up over Ontario, Canada extending outwards into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is currently draped across the northern VA border as of this writing and is progged to slowly push southward across our area through the day today. It will likely take most of the day to reach NC, which will impact both our temperature and precipitation forecast for today. First of all, let`s note that winds will become NNE as the front passes through. Additionally, low cloud cover will also develop along and behind the front, and will likely linger into tomorrow. There could also be some patchy ground fog this morning ahead of the front. The front will create quite a temperature gradient across the CWA today, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for ~Ashland and north. To the south, highs will be able to jump into the upper 80s. Our furthest south points in NE NC will likely hit 90 degrees today. The precipitation forecast is a bit tricky today due to the timing and placement of the front, but the better chances for showers and storms will be along and south of the front where some somewhat decent instability will exist - so roughly US-460 and south. SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe weather along and west of I-95, with the main threat still being damaging winds. Hi-res guidance has trended the timing of any storms a bit later to late this evening, especially closer to the VA/NC border. Models are then in decent agreement of rain chances becoming more widespread overnight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone. On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35-45mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the upper 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25mph with gusts to 35+mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through Friday/Saturday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren`t expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for lower 50s inland. Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it may be just far enough from our area that we could get a break in the rainy conditions for the weekend, but that definitely could change as the details of the low`s placement come to light. The 00Z GFS run even has the stubborn coastal low meandering back down south to the VA/NC line to start the new work week. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below). KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. A significant rise in tidal anomalies is forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal flooding is likely (locally moderate) as early as the Wednesday morning high tide cycle, with widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast during the Wednesday evening high tide. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Specifics will become more clear as we get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along the south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic coast. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, as the onset of the worst tidal flooding is around 60 hours out, but they will eventually be needed for a decent portion of the area. Tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 600 AM EDT Monday... Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions out there this morning as a cold front is making its way into the area from the north. As it progresses southward, MVFR CIGs will spread to the rest of the terminals, with BKN-OVC skies persisting for most of the TAF period. Still have the potential for IFR CIGs at SBY for a few hours this morning, so kept the TEMPO group in through 15Z. Winds will shift from the SW to the N/NE over the next few hours with speeds becoming 8-10kt. There is a chance for scattered SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon/evening, but confidence is low since guidance is pushing timing back a bit. SHRA may become more widespread overnight with potential impacts to the terminals. IFR CIGs may also be possible late this evening. Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island. - SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches have been issued for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River. - The strongest winds will likely occur from Wednesday-Thursday. A ~6 hour period of sustained gale force winds (with gusts to 45 kt) is possible during this time. Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions. A cold front is approaching from the north early this morning, with high pressure well off the SE coast. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt with ~3 ft seas. All attention remains on a significant pattern change this week, which is expected to bring strong northeast winds, 10-14 ft+ seas, and overall dangerous marine conditions. Forecast confidence remains fairly high. The cold front just to our north will cross most of the waters later today, though the initial CAA/wind behind the front won`t be that strong. But, NE winds increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south by late aftn/early evening, which will cause seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a ramp up SCA for the northern two ocean zones starting at 6 PM today. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Will continue to monitor but will hold off on ramp up SCAs at this time. The front will likely stall for a bit tonight into the first part of Tuesday before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt south/25- 30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn. An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Have issued Gale Watches for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River starting Tuesday evening/Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday (for now). While there are model differences in the strength of the 925-850mb wind field, prevailing winds around 30 kt with gusts of ~40 kt are likely over the ocean and lower bay from early Wed-Thu (with slightly lower winds on the upper bay and Lower James). Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ656-686. && $$ |
| #1279515 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 518 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is expected at times today. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday morning. - Rain chances will increase further by the middle of the week as tropical moisture spreads into the area. - Drier air associated with a cold front will arrive late week and into the weekend will bring a lower risk of excessive rainfall, though some rain chances will linger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The upper level low that has dominated our weather pattern over the past several days still remains stalled just off the coast of west central Florida near the Tampa Bay area, though the influence of this feature will finally start to wane by the end of the day. For now, its presence is still felt as GOES-19 satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic flow to the cloud pattern across the Sunshine State. The 00Z KEY RAOB measured a deep southwesterly flow regime throughout the vertical column with little inhibition and abundant moisture with PWATs of 2.11 inches, though mid level temps were notably warmer than recent days at -4.7 C. Given that the proximity of the upper low is still close enough to our region to supply continued forcing for ascent, another active day of convection is generally expected to occur across the Florida Keys with today`s setup possibly favoring a reverse cloud line given a somewhat more southwest flow orientation. However, this depends on if enough low level veering ultimately occurs as there might remain just enough of a southerly component to prevent an ideal alignment with the Island Chain. Should a more organized cloud line develop later today, rain rates over land communities will need to be monitored closely as forecast soundings show corfidi upshear values generally less than 10 knots, possibly enhancing the potential for back building cells and quick accumulations. It should also be noted that several recent CAM solutions are highlighting some maximum QPF bullseye values of 4-6" through tonight and while it remains to be seen if these totals will be more favored over land or offshore, there is a reasonable threat for potential hydro impacts, especially in locations that received multiple rounds of heavy rainfall in short durations. As a result, WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through early Tuesday morning across the entire Island Chain. The aforementioned upper level low will open into a trough by tonight and lift away to the northeast, eventually getting absorbed into a mid latitude trough swinging across the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, remnant energy associated with this departing disturbance will lead to the development of a coastal low offshore of the Southeast US on Tuesday with the low pressure expected to then lift northeastward, deepening as it gains latitude. Eventually, it will stall and retrograde slightly as it meanders offshore of the mid-Atlantic and becoming increasingly occluded towards the end of the week. A cold front attached to this system is expected to drop southward across the central Florida peninsula by mid week with and will continue advancing further southward into late week across the south FL and into the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, ahead of this boundary, tropical moisture is forecast to surge northward across western Cuba and into the Florida Keys with peak moisture values expected to occur late Tuesday into Thursday as PWATs possibly reach as high as 2.5 inches. This moisture has its source region in the southwestern Caribbean Sea as it appears that an inverted trough feature pinches off from a larger Central American Gyre counter-clockwise circulation. This disturbance is generally expected to move westward after it crosses the Yucatan Channel as it encounters stout mid-level ridging in the Ark-La-Tex region, but the substantial increase in moisture advection expected across the Keys should yield several days of a heavy rainfall threat with likely to categorical PoPs mid week before the arrival of the aforementioned frontal boundary brings a drier air mass into the area by end of the week. However, this is not expected to be a very clean frontal passage at this time as deeper moisture doesn`t completely scour out of our area so PoPs should linger in the high chance to likely range through the end of the period. While it still remains a bit early in the season for the cooler air mass changes and corresponding cold air advection that typically follow cold frontal passages, the northerly flow late in the week should help shave off a degree or two from highs and also bring dewpoints a few degrees lower, which should still be noticeable after an extended period of the typical Florida summer humidity. && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 An upper-level low lingers in the eastern Gulf waters through tonight but will finally lift away from the area on Tuesday. However, weather conditions will continue to remain unsettled throughout most of the week as tropical moisture from the Caribbean spreads northward into the Keys into the middle of the week. As a result, rain chances will remain elevated with daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The main hazards that mariners can expect with this activity will be a daily occurence with gusty winds, lightning strikes, blinding downpours, and locally hazardous seas. Breezes will generally remain light to gentle for most of the week but brief periods of moderate breezes may occur at times, mainly in the evening and overnight hours. In addition, winds will be out of the south to southeast throughout most of the week but winds will start to shift more northerly by late week and into the weekend as a frontal boundary gradually pushes southward across coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Seas will also start to build by the end of the week and into the weekend as northeasterly swell increases in the wake of the frontal boundary, especially in the Straits of Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible across either of the Island Chain terminals today as an upper level disturbance continues to linger to the north of the area. As a result, brief IFR/MVFR restrictions may occur during periods of heavier precipitation, though confidence in timing this activity is low at this time as multiple rounds of showers and storms could occur throughout he day and into this evening. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any precipitation activity with south- southwest winds today around 5-10 knots before shifting slightly more southeasterly and increasing slightly into tonight. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279514 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 452 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Inner southern waters added to the Gale Watch. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers exit early this morning, pushing offshore of the Cape and Islands by late morning. Breezy and cool this afternoon. - Dry and cool conditions persist through mid-week. Monitoring potential late-week coastal low that has potential to bring rain, strong winds, and coastal impacts depending on the track. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Light showers exit early this morning, pushing offshore of the Cape and Islands by late morning. Breezy and cool this afternoon. Light showers shift eastward across the eastern parts of the region early this morning. The remaining showers likely push of the Cape and Island by late-morning. Expect areas of patchy fog early this morning. A strong surface shifts east across the upper Great Lakes pushing high pressure in behind the exited system today. This will bring in a dry and cooler than normal airmass into the region starting today. Mid-level dry air pushes in quickly within the northerly flow, with some drying in the lower levels through the morning based on model soundings. This will result in gradual improvements in the low clouds and eventual some breaks in the clouds mid morning into the afternoon. Low clouds may linger longer for the Cape and Islands. Another cooler day expected today with 850mb temperatures 10-13C yielding highs in the low to mid 60s. Some spots may reach upper 60s in the valleys. Expect northeasterly onshore flow today. As a strong high builds in to the northwest the pressure gradient tightens supporting breezy N/NE winds for the south coast extending to the Cape/Islands with gusts 20-25 mph. Mostly cloudy conditions tonight. Despite the limited radiational cooling, temperatures should fall into the 40s across most of the interior. Urban areas and areas near the coast will trend warmer in the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry and cool conditions persist through mid- week. Monitoring potential late-week coastal low that has potential to bring rain, strong winds, and coastal impacts depending on the track. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that an anomalously strong surface high will set up over Quebec and persist through late week. This will advect in a below normal airmass, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s alongside a prolonged period of northeasterly flow through the week. A weak low pressure system moves through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. There remains uncertainty regarding its northern extent; however, if it tracks north enough, a few light showers are possible. The higher probabilities for any showers will be for CT, south coast, and Cape/Islands. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions through mid-week. Attention turns to a developing coastal low late in the week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to highlight a slow-moving low developing and tracking northward toward the northeast coast by late-week. However, considerable spread remains in the exact track and strength of the low. Ensemble means have largely settled on a middle-ground solutions of the low developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by a northward track into closer proximity of southern New England Thursday and Friday. Looking at individual members, tracks range from as far west as Long Island to near Cape Cod, to further offshore southeast or east of southern New England. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs have exhibited subtle shifts east/west in the cluster of low tracks, while the GEFS has show a subtle but consistent trend west. Regardless of the exact track, ensemble means bring the low close enough to bring strong gusts, rain, and coastal impacts(erosion/coastal flooding). It is important to note that the exact track and low strength will strongly influence the magnitude of gusts, QPF, and how far inland the rain extends. While the center of the low likely holds off until late week, marine and coastal impacts may begin as early as Wednesday. As the low deepens in the Mid-Atlantic, the robust high to the north will aid in tightening the regional pressure gradient, particularly across the southern coastal waters. This will support development of strong winds by Wednesday AM, well ahead of the primary low. The exact positioning and strength the associated areas of high/low pressure will dictate how strong the winds could be. There is growing confidence in Gale force(40mph+) for the southern coastal waters which has been heavily supported by the ECMWF and its ensemble, though the GEFS/GFS remain slightly weaker. A Gale Watch has been issued in these areas. As the system lifts northward expect strong gusts to continue if not strengthen and expand across portions of the waters. The ECMWF ensemble even shows low probabilities (10-25%) for greater than 45 mph gusts Thursday into Friday. Inland winds will also be gusty, though lighter than over the waters with gusts 25-35 mph, strongest along the immediate coast. This prolonged period of gusty northeasterly winds will build rough seas and elevate the threat for coastal erosion and flooding depending on the track. Given the aforementioned spread in track and intensity across models, rain amounts have also remained uncertain. Most guidance suggests the rain shield will clip at least the far eastern portions of MA with the 50th and upper percentiles shifting the shield further west. Some deterministic run and individual ensemble members indicate amounts > 1.0" which will require monitoring given this is a slow moving system. In summary, confidence is steadily increasing that a coastal will at least impact the coastal waters and coastal areas late this week. However, this is still far enough out that the details (track, strength, upper level pattern), so the exact impacts and magnitude are still uncertain at this time. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in ceilings. IFR with localize LIFR ceilings early this morning with visibilities generally mainly between 2-5SM. Patchy fog possible through 12Z. - SHRA slowly exits the eastern terminals early this morning and should be offshore the Cape and Islands by 15Z. Winds shift to the N at 8-12 kt. Today...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing and ceilings. IFR/MVFR improving to VFR through the day, though exact timing is lower confidence. General trend is ceilings improving to VFR 09-14Z for interior terminals and 13-16Z for more east terminals (BOS, PVD). Improvement trend will be likely slow for Cape/Islands potentially not VFR until 18Z-21Z. NNE to NE winds increase to 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the Cape/Islands. Gusts diminish by 00Z, although sustained winds 10-12 kts possible for Cape/Islands early evening. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR. Lower-end VFR ceilings are possible near the southern coast and Islands closer to 12Z. NNE winds 8-12 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt across the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Ceilings improving to VFR 12-15Z. NNE winds 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts developing after 15Z through around 21Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High Confidence. Any remaining showers end mid to late morning across the coastal waters. Winds N/NE today with gusts prompting Small Craft headlines for all southern waters and Cape Cod Bay through the afternoon. Seas build to 3-5 ft, with the highest seas across the outer waters. Winds subside Monday evening, but only for a brief time as winds increase Tuesday with rougher seas (4-7 ft). Winds continue to strength into mid-week and furthermore into late week ahead of an approaching coastal low. This has promoted a Gale Watch for the southern coastal waters. The inner southern waters have been added into the Watch in the most recent update. There is still uncertainty in the timing of the Gale force gusts and how widespread they will be. Strong winds and rough seas continue through late week. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ235-237-255-256-282-283. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1279510 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 405 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Early this Morning Across the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Southeast GA. - Scattered Thunderstorms through Tuesday. A Few Strong Storms will be Possible at Inland Locations, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail Possible. Localized Flooding will be Possible this Afternoon at Inland Locations Due to Slow Storm Motion. - Strengthening North-Northeasterly Winds Arrive Late Wednesday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches from Thursday through Saturday. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible will be Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and into the Upcoming Weekend along the Atlantic Coast and Within the St. Johns River Basin. - Isolated Thunderstorms and Locally Heavy Downpours Possible at Coastal Locations from Wednesday through Thursday Morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Early this Morning Across the Suwannee Valley and Portions of Inland Southeast GA. - Scattered Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening. A Few Strong Storms will be Possible at Inland Locations this Afternoon, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail Possible. Localized Flooding will be Possible this Afternoon at Inland Locations Due to Slow Storm Motion. Early morning surface analysis depicts a trough over the FL peninsula, with a weak pressure pattern in place across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a wavy stationary frontal boundary extends from coastal New England southwestward through the Mid- Atlantic states and the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. Otherwise, strong high pressure (1030 millibars) was building towards the Great Lakes states from southern Canada in the wake of this frontal boundary. Aloft...a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) that has been stationary just west of Tampa Bay is beginning to pivot slowly eastward, with a narrow ridge extending west of this feature across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A potent shortwave trough was otherwise digging over the northern and central Plains. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture remains in place area-wide, with PWAT values of 1.8 - 1.9 inches at inland locations in northeast FL and southeast GA and 2 - 2.1 inches for coastal locations and north central FL. Showers and thunderstorms were mostly confined to the offshore Atlantic waters, but a few showers that briefly produced some in- cloud lightning strikes overnight were moving slowly southwestward across western portions of Nassau County. Otherwise, fog and low stratus ceilings were expanding across the Suwannee Valley and mainly inland portions of southeast GA, with some locally dense fog being reported in the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in the low to mid 70s area-wide as of 08Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings may continue to expand early this morning across inland portions of northeast FL and southeast GA, with dense fog possible across the Suwannee Valley. Fog and low stratus should then dissipate by the mid-morning hours at inland locations. The aforementioned TUTT feature and its accompanying surface trough that have plagued the FL peninsula with widespread convection during the past weekend will lift northeastward across our area later today and this evening. A land breeze boundary currently over the near shore waters adjacent to coastal northeast FL and southeast GA is expected to trigger convection towards sunrise, with scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms likely moving onshore early this morning for locations north of St. Augustine. This activity should fade later this morning near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor, but another round of scattered convection will likely develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary this afternoon. Abundant tropical moisture and relatively cool temperatures aloft could cause a few storms to "pulse", with isolated stronger storms this afternoon west of the I-95 corridor potentially producing downburst winds of 35-45 mph, frequent lightning strikes, small hail, and localized flooding due to slow storm motion possible. Prevailing onshore winds and morning shower activity should keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s, while highs climb to the lower 90s for locations along and west of U.S. Highway 301, where heat index values will generally peak near 100. Showers and thunderstorms along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary should push west of the Alapaha and Suwannee Rivers early this evening. A break in activity is expected through the evening and overnight hours, but a round of coastal showers could develop during the predawn hours for locations along and east of I- 95. Fog and low stratus ceilings may develop towards sunrise for inland locations along the I-75 corridor and interior southeast GA, with lows generally falling to the low and mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Especially on Tuesday. - Strengthening Northeasterly Winds Wednesday evening and Wednesday Night. A rather major shift in the pattern starts on Tuesday, especially coming to fruition throughout Wednesday and into Wednesday Night as a backdoor frontal boundary pushes towards and across the region, with continental high pressure ridging building in its wake. The dailies: Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Weak high pressure hangs on during this period, as well as some lingering energy aloft as a weakening upper trough lifts north and east of our area and an inverted trough develops diurnally east of the Florida Peninsula. This will persist a weak onshore flow, enhanced a bit by the sea breeze, with mainly scattered showers and some t`storms pushing inland. Similar to the previous few days, best chances for stronger storms will be generally inland west of I-95 during daytime heating in the afternoon/evening. Not a significant strong storm threat, though very high PWATs will result in heavy rain/minor flooding being the primary hazard potential in addition to some gusty downbursts and perhaps some isolated small hail. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s along and east of I-95, and the low 90s inland. Some coastal showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm are also expected again Tuesday Night, with otherwise dry and some clouds inland. Muggy lows in the low to mid 70s will be common. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: An upper trough digs into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday and southeastern states Wednesday Night, pushing a "combined" back door and traditional front through and south of the region. Along with increasing coverage of showers and isolated t`storms streaming onshore with the frontal boundary, an initial surge of northeasterly winds will also begin to impact the region, especially near the coast and St. Johns River Basin. Breeziest conditions will mainly hold off until late week (more on that below), but still expecting a general 10-20G25 type of onshore flow to develop. This will also knock the temps down a few degrees on average, especially near the coast with the stronger marine influence. Mid to upper 80s are generally expected I-95 east, and around or just over 90 inland. A secondary surge of breezy northeasterlies develop Wednesday Night as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure ridging building over the area. This will keep the winds up overnight but especially closer to the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated t`storm over the nearshore waters will make it towards the coast and just onshore at times. Breezier conditions will also keep morning fog potential lower inland. Lows will be most mild near the coast with mid 70s persisting, though upper 60s to low 70s will be expected inland. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations Thursday and Friday. - Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend. Surface high pressure will continue to extend down the eastern U.S. late this week, persisting breezy onshore flow for much of the area, but especially northeast FL. The strong flow will also correspond close with a full moon peaking on Saturday, and therefore will keep a close eye on expected coastal/river tide levels over the coming days as minor flooding will be possible around times of high tide. A rather robust upper trough/low will linger northeast of the region and pump a much drier northwest continental flow aloft late week and into the upcoming weekend, which looks to cut down chances for showers and t`storms to at least a certain degree late week and into the upcoming weekend as well, depending on how south and east the base of the upper trough digs and how much drier air is introduced. Regardless of exact magnitude/position, long term guidance is overall in good agreement that cooler and drier conditions will be in store for late week and potentially into/through the upcoming weekend as well, with onshore flow weakening as high pressure settles further southward. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through around 13Z at VQQ and GNV. Otherwise, periods of MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 2,000 feet will be possible at CRG, JAX, and SSI through around 11Z. Showers are expected to increase in coverage after 11Z across coastal portions of southeast GA and portions of coastal northeast FL. PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours were included after 11Z at SSI and after 13Z at the Duval County terminals. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through around 16Z at SGJ, but showers developing after 11Z could also bring periods of MVFR conditions during the morning hours. The Atlantic sea breeze will push inland on Monday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms initially developing near the SGJ terminal around 16Z, with activity forecast to reach GNV after 18Z. PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours and brief surface wind gusts up to 25 knots were included through late afternoon at these terminals. Convection should shift west of the SSI, CRG, and JAX terminals by 20Z, with vicinity thunderstorms expected to linger through around 22Z at VQQ. VFR conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals towards 00Z Tuesday, with IFR conditions developing towards the end of this TAF period at VQQ. && .MARINE... Surface troughing and a disturbance aloft located just west of Tampa Bay will lift northeastward across our local waters on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue through Tuesday. East- northeasterly winds will prevail, with afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to easterly for the nearshore waters through midweek. Strong high pressure building over New England on Wednesday will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday night, driving a frontal boundary southward across our area that will be accompanied by widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. A surge of north-northeasterly winds will then overspread our local waters in the wake of this frontal passage on Wednesday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected across our local waters from late Wednesday night through Friday. Winds may occasionally gust to Gale Force on Thursday afternoon and evening. Breezy northeasterly winds and elevated seas may continue into Saturday before subsiding on Saturday night and Sunday. Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through Tuesday at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Wednesday afternoon, creating a higher end moderate risk at area beaches. A surge of north-northeasterly winds and building surf will arrive at area beaches on Wednesday evening, with a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches from Thursday through at least Saturday. A period of high surf conditions will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday at the northeast FL beaches, where breakers may build to the 6-7 foot range before gradually subsiding during the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Weak high pressure will remain in place across the area today, combined with a disturbance aloft will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Flow will be onshore again, with highest chances for storms being west of I-95. More stable onshore flow will keep dispersions only in the fair range at best, more favorable the further inland you go. Onshore flow and poor to fair dispersions hang on with a similar regime Tuesday before a cool front moves through on Wednesday, bringing a much stronger northeasterly wind surge and moderate to high range changes Wednesday through the rest of the week. Fog Potential...Patchy inland fog will be possible through Wednesday Morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will be on the rise later this week due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon, and minor coastal flooding during times of high tide appears to be likely along the Atlantic coast, beginning with the evening high tide on Thursday and likely continuing during high tide cycles through at least Saturday. Minor flooding may also become possible within the St. Johns River basin from Friday through the upcoming weekend around times of high tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 70 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 SSI 88 74 87 76 / 30 30 30 30 JAX 89 70 89 72 / 40 20 40 10 SGJ 88 75 87 74 / 30 20 30 20 GNV 89 71 90 72 / 40 20 40 10 OCF 90 72 91 73 / 40 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279509 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Through Wednesday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast opens into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, which then shifts east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, shift a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the region. The push is greater west of the Mississippi River, shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area south. Guidance is inconsistent with the shift, with some dropping moisture levels to 1.5" or less by Wednesday evening (most mesoscale models) to 1.5"-2" (the global models and ensembles). Any which way one cuts it, POPs drop into mid week. In combination with the building upper ridge, scattered PoPs Monday drop to isolated, seabreeze driven by Wednesday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-1000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible each afternoon/evening into mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal norms into mid week. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range are expected. Boundary layer moisture remains high enough for heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range. Low temperatures do see a bit of a drop with the drop in deep layer moisture, from low to mid 70s Monday night, to the upper 60s to around 70 inland, mid 70s along the coast Wednesday night. Thursday on...as the surface low off the East Coast organizes a bit more, then moves north along the coast, a secondary cold front moves southwest along the Appalachians, reinforcing the dry air over the Southeast along with dropping temperatures to near seasonal norms by the end of the coming weekend. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through the week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf coast in the coming weekend, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Some patchy fog is possible overnight mainly over interior areas, then isolated to scattered showers and storms develop Monday afternoon and linger into the evening hours. MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. Light and variable winds overnight become northeasterly to easterly around 5 knots on Monday, with a switch to a southeasterly direction near the coast in the afternoon. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 92 72 92 72 / 40 20 30 0 Pensacola 90 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 0 Destin 89 75 90 76 / 20 20 20 0 Evergreen 93 68 94 68 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 95 70 95 69 / 30 20 20 20 Camden 94 71 94 69 / 20 20 20 10 Crestview 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279508 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued starting this evening, with Gale Watches being issued for Tuesday evening through Thursday. Lowered high temperatures a little Wednesday as cold air damming sets up across the area. Also removed the chance of thunder for Wednesday as the environment will be too stable, with the exception of the NC coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area. 2) Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. 3) Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and storms today and Tuesday as a slow-moving front moves in and lingers across the area. Early morning surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure set up over Ontario, Canada extending outwards into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is currently draped across the northern VA border as of this writing and is progged to slowly push southward across our area through the day today. It will likely take most of the day to reach NC, which will impact both our temperature and precipitation forecast for today. First of all, let`s note that winds will become NNE as the front passes through. Additionally, low cloud cover will also develop along and behind the front, and will likely linger into tomorrow. There could also be some patchy ground fog this morning ahead of the front. The front will create quite a temperature gradient across the CWA today, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for ~Ashland and north. To the south, highs will be able to jump into the upper 80s. Our furthest south points in NE NC will likely hit 90 degrees today. The precipitation forecast is a bit tricky today due to the timing and placement of the front, but the better chances for showers and storms will be along and south of the front where some somewhat decent instability will exist - so roughly US-460 and south. SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe weather along and west of I-95, with the main threat still being damaging winds. Hi-res guidance has trended the timing of any storms a bit later to late this evening, especially closer to the VA/NC border. Models are then in decent agreement of rain chances becoming more widespread overnight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s for most everyone. On Tuesday, the Canadian high pressure shifts a bit eastward, serving as a reinforcement of our onshore flow. Northeast winds will begin to pick up along the Eastern Shore Tuesday morning, then spreading to all coastal locations through the day. Widespread (coastal) gusts to 25mph will be likely, with gusts increasing to 35-45mph along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore (including Ocean City, Chincoteague, etc) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The lingering front will keep rain chances going on Tuesday for most of the area. Could get some isolated storms as well that create locally heavy downpours and instances of flash flooding. The cooler airmass will make its presence known starting Tuesday night as lows will be in the upper 50s across the northwest, with low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the SE and coastal areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. Cold air damming will overtake the area on Wednesday as high pressure remains parked to our north. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for the northern and western inland areas, with low to mid 70s for the SE half of the CWA. Winds for coastal areas will persistently be blowing around 20-25mph with gusts to 35+mph. The strongest winds will once again be along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore with gusts to 40-45mph likely Tuesday night, potentially lasting all the way through Friday/Saturday as the low pressure remains offshore. Rain chances continue everywhere on Wednesday, though due to the stable cooler environment, storms aren`t expected, with the exception of the NC coast. There could once again be areas of locally higher rainfall at times that lead to flash flooding. WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for a majority of the area on Wednesday. Rain chances may focus more across the eastern portions of the area later Thursday into Friday. A secondary surface low may form and cause the main low to recenter itself slightly closer to the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s with 70s closer to the coast both day. If winds are able to shift more out of the north around the west side of the low pressure, our low temperatures Thursday and Friday night could dip into the mid 50s, with the potential for lower 50s inland. Into the weekend and beyond, models are showing that this low may continue to hang around to our northeast. As of right now, it may be just far enough from our area that we could get a break in the rainy conditions for the weekend, but that definitely could change as the details of the low`s placement come to light. The 00Z GFS run even has the stubborn coastal low meandering back down south to the VA/NC line to start the new work week. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as this system will create a prolonged period of gusty onshore winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous marine conditions (see below). KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread moderate to locally major tidal flooding (inundation of 2-3 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the Wednesday afternoon/evening high tide due to strong northeast winds. Tidal flooding is expected to continue for several tide cycles (potentially through the end of the work week) given the persistent northeast winds. Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No worse than nuisance-minor tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday evening. A significant rise in tidal anomalies is forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal flooding is likely (locally moderate) as early as the Wednesday morning high tide cycle, with widespread moderate to locally major flooding forecast during the Wednesday evening high tide. This corresponds to inundation of 2-3 ft AGL in vulnerable areas. Specifics will become more clear as we get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along the south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic coast. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, as the onset of the worst tidal flooding is around 60 hours out, but they will eventually be needed for a decent portion of the area. Tidal flooding likely persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions are in place early this morning to start the 06z period. A cold front will gradually progress from north to south through the local area late tonight through late this morning. Confidence is increasing in MVFR CIGS along and behind the front. There`s some potential for IFR at SBY from 09-14Z, which is noted in a TEMPO group. Patchy ground fog is also possible just ahead of the front tonight, with the best chances roughly from the RIC vicinity and points W. A light S-SW wind tonight will shift to the NE behind the front and increase to ~10 kt. As we get into Monday afternoon, SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs are likely to linger through the rest of the TAF period. Lastly, that front could spark some SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, though the best chances for precip are expected to reside W and SW of the local terminals for now. Activity could linger into the overnight and potentially impact the terminals, but confidence is currently low. Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A brief east to northeasterly surge is expected late this afternoon-this evening behind a cold front. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the northern marine area, with gusts to 20 kt likely south to the VA-NC border. Ramp up SCAs have been issued for the ocean north of Parramore Island. - SCA level winds are forecast beginning Tuesday morning. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds is very high from Tuesday night- Thursday, and Gale Watches have been issued for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River. - The strongest winds will likely occur from Wednesday-Thursday. A ~6 hour period of sustained gale force winds (with gusts to 45 kt) is possible during this time. Seas build to 10-14+ feet, likely leading to dangerous marine conditions. A cold front is approaching from the north early this morning, with high pressure well off the SE coast. Winds are SW at 10-15 kt with ~3 ft seas. All attention remains on a significant pattern change this week, which is expected to bring strong northeast winds, 10-14 ft+ seas, and overall dangerous marine conditions. Forecast confidence remains fairly high. The cold front just to our north will cross most of the waters later today, though the initial CAA/wind behind the front won`t be that strong. But, NE winds increase to 15-20 kt north/15 kt south by late aftn/early evening, which will cause seas to build to 4-5+ ft north of Parramore Island. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a ramp up SCA for the northern two ocean zones starting at 6 PM today. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches Bay late this aftn/this evening. However, the duration is short and local wind probs for 18+ kt winds are 20-35% for a few hrs. Will continue to monitor but will hold off on ramp up SCAs at this time. The front will likely stall for a bit tonight into the first part of Tuesday before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. Winds may decrease by a few knots tonight, but NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt south/25- 30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn. An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is very high with local wind probs showing nearly a 100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed through a good part of Thu. Have issued Gale Watches for the bay, ocean north of the VA-NC border, and Lower James River starting Tuesday evening/Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday (for now). While there are model differences in the strength of the 925-850mb wind field, prevailing winds around 30 kt with gusts of ~40 kt are likely over the ocean and lower bay from early Wed-Thu (with slightly lower winds on the upper bay and Lower James). Some of the models show 925mb winds increasing to ~45 kt for a short time as the strongest CAA arrives late Wed/early Thu. With the unstable marine boundary layer and water temps in the mid to upper 70s, wind gusts at that level should be able to mix down to the sfc. This could lead to a 6 hour period of sustained gale force winds with gusts to 45 kt. Confidence in this scenario has increased since yesterday and have a mention of gusts as high as 45 kt in the MWW/CWF. Given the prolonged strong NE winds, seas are forecast to build to 10-14+ ft. This will likely lead to dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Thursday. Low-end gale force gusts could certainly continue through the end of the work week (with solid SCA winds next weekend) as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches today from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by Tuesday and will continue through the weekend with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach/dune erosion is possible from mid to late week as well. High Surf Advisories will eventually be needed for all of the beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ656-686. && $$ |
| #1279507 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 326 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the next couple days. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to the low 100s. - Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or two are also possible. - Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The last day of the Summer Solstice will not feel like a transition to fall thanks to an unseasonably warm/humid airmass fostered by a lingering mid-upper low over the Eastern Gulf. This feature should serve as a focus for another round of afternoon- evening showers and thunderstorms. The greatest convective potential is along/south of the I-10 corridor where prevailing NE winds converge with the Gulf coast seabreeze. Atlantic seabreeze-driven convection also aims to push westward into the Lower I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend. We will also have to monitor trends across the Upper MS Valley where a subtle shortwave acts as "wildcard" for thunderstorms to our west/NW where an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) stretches toward I- 85. The main threats are strong-gusty winds (isolated severe downbursts possible), frequent lightning, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures drop to the low 70s. These values are well above normal for late September. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The aforementioned mid-upper low loses definition on Tuesday as a northern stream upper trough digs down to the OH-TN Valley. Rain chances decrease in response with only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Convective forcing should be from the seabreeze and a pre-frontal surface trough from the NW. The latter is attendant to an SPC Marginal Risk spreads into I-185. On Wednesday a front dropping in from the north serves as the primary focus for convection. The highest rain chances are along/NE of the I-10 corridor and the SE FL Big Bend. A drying/cooling trend more akin to early Autumn ensues the remainder of the forecast period following frontal passage as a less humid airmass filters in via brisk NE winds. High and low temperatures prior to the front are forecast to be in the low 90s & low 70s - Tuesday through Thursday morning. Thereafter, highs/lows drop to the 80s/60s, which are closer to normal for the last week of September. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main aviation concerns this TAF cycle are patchy fog/low stratus overnight into early this morning and afternoon thunderstorms. The former mostly focus at VLD/ABY/DHN. Restrictions improve by about 13Z with VFR prevailing the remainder of the period away from convection. The best potential for convective impacts are TLH/VLD/ECP where PROB30s are in place 18-24Z. A NE wind is expected 5-7 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Prevailing northeast winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes the next several days. Cautionary to perhaps advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following frontal passage. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms the next 3 days. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise, expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 There are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding, or ponding of water. Dry weather is expected late this week following frontal passage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 20 10 Panama City 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 20 10 Dothan 91 71 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 Albany 92 72 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 91 72 91 72 / 30 10 20 10 Cross City 90 73 90 73 / 40 20 30 20 Apalachicola 86 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279506 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 307 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Daily thunderstorms are expected across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina today with rain chances increasing Tuesday and Wednesday. - 2) A mid-week cold front will bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Daily thunderstorms are expected across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina this weekend and into early next week. An increase in rain chances is expected by the middle of next week, with cooler temperatures thereafter. Today: Very little change in the pattern from the past few days with an upper level low parked over the Florida Peninsula. Moisture continues to stream are the upper low and into the area as PWATS continue to hover around 2 inches across the area. Given rather weak forcing aloft storms will likely be more isolated in nature focused along the slowly advancing seabreeze. Tuesday: The aforementioned upper low across the Florida Peninsula is anticipated to drift north-northeast across the Southeast United States, eventually phasing with a longwave trough shifting across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast mid-week. Forcing associated with this feature will support increased shower and thunderstorm activity, along with the potential for a few strong or marginally severe thunderstorms Tuesday. The presence of deep moisture (PWATS 2+ inches) could also produce a threat for localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2: A mid-week cold front will bring a threat of strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather and gusty winds. A cold front is progged to push south across the forecast area as an upper trough digs into the Southeast. Model guidance has slowed the cold front`s progression across the area to late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. While the overnight/early morning arrival will limit the severe weather threat Wednesday morning, especially across southeast South Carolina, afternoon heating south of the front will destabilize the warm and moist airmass out ahead. This creates a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, primarily across southeast Georgia. Following the front, an inland wedge pattern will set up, and cool and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s in southeast South Carolina and the low to mid 80s in southeast Georgia, roughly a few degrees below normal for late September. Gusty post-frontal winds of 25 to 30 mph are also likely on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions prevail across the area with the main forecast challenge being the potential for another round of stratus and fog around sunrise. Model guidance suggests that the best chance fog flight restrictions in fog/stratus will be at KSAV, with considerably lower chances at KCHS and KJZI. LIFR to IFR ceilings and vsbys could be possible where low stratus and fog does develop. Shallow ground fog will also be possible at KCHS and KJZI. Any fog and stratus that develops is expected to erode and dissipate by mid morning. Overall shower and thunderstorm chances look very low for Monday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain light out of the northeast becoming easterly during the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: The main potential for flight restrictions will come from afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected to come Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front shifts across the area. Post-frontal gusty winds will likely impact the terminals Thursday. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: A decaying surface high pressure ahead of a slowly approaching cold front will continue the benign marine weather conditions across our local waters. Periodic showers and thunderstorms during this time may be capable of gusty winds and frequent lightning. Tuesday through Saturday: Quiet marine conditions are expected Tuesday before a cold front pushes through Wednesday. In the wake of the front, an inland wedge pattern coupled with a deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive a strong surge in northeasterly winds. Conditions will deteriorate Wednesday evening with wind gusts peaking near gale force Thursday evening. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed, and Gale Watches/Warnings could be required. In addition, seas will build alongside the surge, peaking between 5-9 ft Thursday night. Conditions will begin to improve Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Coastal Flooding: We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal flooding Thursday as strong northeasterly winds combine with astronomical high tide. Current forecast for Charleston Harbor is 6.9 Ft MLLW. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279505 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precip chances decreased further for today. Reduced thunder chances Wednesday onwards. Increased winds for Wed into Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain Tuesday through Thursday. 2) Increased coastal impacts mid through late week as high waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX and adjacent waters, sounds and rivers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A foggy start to your Monday morning commute with locally dense fog inland around sunrise. Fog dissipates by mid morning with mainly dry conditions expected for today. Have cut back on pops further, with just low chc now expected for nrn areas as a front/prefrontal trough dip into nrn NC. Front drops in Tue while PW`s surge to aoa 2". Approaching shortwave energy brings good lift to the region and appears the best chance for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with cont 60-70% chc for showers. Good rain chances cont Wed into Thu as upper low over the region and offshore low bring periods of rain to the region. Thunder chances are very slim as deep nrly flow and CAD setup appears likely. This will keep temps cool, with highs no higher than the 70s each day. Key Message 2...By mid week, strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time broad low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and northeast. This setup will usher in stronger NE winds into coastal ENC. Exact timing, placement, and strength of the low will dictate wind speeds and impacts to coastal ENC. Ensemble probs for gales cont to inc, with wind gusts on the OBX and adjacent coastal waters 45-50 mph (30-40 mph land zones). What is more certain is that a long fetch of tightened nerly gradient winds offshore will bring high wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored. There is high confidence in seas reaching 10-15 ft nearshore of the OBX with periods of around 10 seconds. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Environment tonight remains favorable for fog with primarily clear skies and calm winds for most inland areas, and model soundings depicting a shallow but fully saturated surface layer. Probabilistic guidance adds confidence to this scenario, with the LAMP showing the likelihood of IFR or worse at 50-70% for all terminals, with best chances for dense fog at EWN and OAJ. Poor mixing Mon morning may delay lifting of stratus until after 14z in a worst case scenario. Benign flying conditions expected for most of today with east to east southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt. Cold front drops into the area late today, but rain chances will likely hold off until after 00z Tues. Outlook (Mon through Thu): This and the potential cold air damming pattern develops mid-week with a risk of prolonged sub- VFR conditions and breezy nnerly winds esp Wed into the end of the week. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds no higher than 5-10 kt today as high pres remains over the region. Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft range. Winds become predominantly nerly tonight though speeds no higher than 5-15 kt and seas remaining 2-4 ft. Outlook (Tue through Fri): NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM and esp Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and low pres developing well offshore. There is increasing confidence for a period of nerly gales later Wed and peaking Thu, then slowly diminishing Thu night into Fri. There is high confidence in high impact, dangerous seas reaching 10-15 ft nearshore of the OBX, with ECMWF cont to fcst 15-20 ft seas in the 20-60 mile offshore marine zones. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279504 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 248 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next few days. - A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches. - A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower rain chances and slight cooling late week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Today-Tue...An upper level (cut-off) low will continue to spin over the western FL peninsula today then open up into a trough and lift NE on Tue. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms both afternoons over land. Overnight/early morning showers and storms will continue over the Atlc, sparked this morning by a land breeze slowly pushing offshore. As diurnal heating develops, convection should develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift inland into the evening hours. Temps aloft remain cool today (-8C at 500mb) so a few strong storms are possible containing gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall 1-3". Temps are forecast to warm to -6C Tue as the upper low weakens/fills so risk of strong storms will decrease. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Wed-Sun...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great Lakes region Wed, then deepens into a strong cut-off low just off the mid Atlc coast late week with an assocd sfc low deepening near 990mb. This stacked low pressure system will not move much as high pressure to the north will create a blocking pattern into the weekend. In the low levels, a cool front will get driven southward into the Florida peninsula Wednesday with a secondary surge pushing the front south of the area by Friday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") will persist over the area Wed esp southern sections while the presence of the front maintains enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. N/NE winds are forecast to increase Thu as pressure gradient tightens supporting 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph spreading southward from Volusia into Brevard during Thu. Gusts near 30 mph are possible along the immediate Volusia coast Thursday aftn-eve. Max temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue. Drier air will filter down into central FL beginning Fri, lowering PoPs to 20-40% this weekend. Breezy NE flow continues, especially along the coast on Friday then decreasing slightly this weekend. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s. However, min temps will remain quite mild holding in the 70s due to the onshore flow. But as that onshore flow decreases, inland sections should drop into the mid and upper 60s Sat night/Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week as NE to E winds remain around 10 kts or less during the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight and early morning. However, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day, especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible, capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft. A cool front is forecast to cross the local Atlantic waters Thursday, bringing a surge of N/NE winds increasing to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral in the afternoon. Conditions look to deteriorate southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A small area of stratus and isolated showers near KVRB/KFPR may lead to brief IFR/LIFR conditions through 08Z. Difficult to say if it will hold on any longer, but patchy fog will be possible across the Treasure Coast through early this morning, so will continue to monitor. Additional isolated showers/storms will again be possible along the coast through this morning, and then again expecting scattered to numerous showers and storms into the afternoon with the inland moving sea breeze. Have VCTS starting at 17Z, with PROB30/TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA cig/vis from 18-21Z for most sites (except DAB). Should still see majority of convection diminish and shift west-southwest of the area by 00Z. Light and variable winds will pick up slightly out of the E/NE around 5-9 knots into the afternoon as sea breeze moves through. Gusty and variable winds will be possible near any storms or heavier showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 74 88 74 / 20 10 40 20 MCO 90 73 90 73 / 50 20 60 20 MLB 87 74 87 74 / 60 20 50 30 VRB 88 73 88 73 / 60 30 60 40 LEE 89 73 90 73 / 50 20 60 20 SFB 88 73 89 73 / 40 10 60 10 ORL 89 74 89 74 / 50 20 70 10 FPR 88 72 88 72 / 60 30 70 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279503 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 156 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Rain chances return this week - Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Rain chances will slowly increase early this week with low chances (less than 20%) beginning Monday and increasing to low to medium chance (20-45%) by mid-week. One thing we will be closing monitoring in future forecast is the wet bias of the NBM, which could be bumping the low chances up to medium. Despite whether it`s a low or medium chance, there is confidence some showers or storms will develop each afternoon with the seabreeze. While temperatures will be warm and above average this week, heat index values are expected to remain below 110 degrees with a moderate to high chance for heat- related impacts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions will be expected to prevail through the period. IFR to potentially LIFR conditions will exist at ALI though it will clear out by midmorning. Winds will increase as the seabreeze comes in with gusts around 15-20kts. They will subside a little after sunset around 02Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Seas will decrease from 2-3 feet to 2 feet seas through Wednesday as light to gentle (BF 2-3) breezes continue. By midweek, gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breezes will develop, with seas increasing to 3-4 feet. A low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop midweek and continues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the weekend and into next week. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30% across all of South Texas Thursday through the period. With winds being light, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 0 Victoria 100 74 101 74 / 20 0 10 0 Laredo 102 76 100 75 / 10 0 20 10 Alice 99 74 98 74 / 20 0 20 10 Rockport 93 79 93 79 / 20 0 20 10 Cotulla 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 97 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279502 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 237 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 - A seasonal weather pattern will persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the next few days, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms across central, northern, and western Puerto Rico. - A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 3 PM AST for all Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. - A wetter and more unstable pattern will return by mid-week, increasing the potential for widespread heavy rainfall and stronger thunderstorms. - Hot and humid conditions will continue throughout the week, with heat concerns each day, particularly before the onset of afternoon showers. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 A seasonal weather pattern, with high heat indices and convection during the afternoon is expected today. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10 AM to 3 PM. Locals and visitors are encouraged to remain hydrated and avoid outdoor activities, especially during peak daytime heating hours. Seasonal to above-seasonal precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging from 1.70 to 2.10 inches will support passing morning showers during the morning over the USVI and eastern portions. Light winds from a southeasterly flow will promote showers and thunderstorm activity enhanced by local effects during the afternoon, especially over the northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. On Tuesday, a similar pattern is expected, however, a trough in mid- to-high levels should enhance instability, which could result in stronger afternoon convection over the CWA. In addition, a more easterly flow and prevailing light winds could allow showers and thunderstorms development over most of the local area. Moving into mid-week, a weak mid-level ridge will allow drier air intrusion and a surface high pressure will promote winds strengthening gradually to seasonal levels by the end of workweek. As a result, PWAT values are anticipated to diminish to sub-seasonal to seasonal ranges (1.6- 2.00 inches) by Wednesday. Nonetheless, afternoon convection could still be possible over western and interior portions. Overall, the primary weather hazards will include heat-related risks, localized heavy rainfall, and isolated thunderstorms, which could be accompanied by frequent lightning and strong gusts. Tuesday is expected to be the most unstable day, as light winds could lead to slow-moving storms that heighten the risk of excessive rainfall, particularly in the afternoon. While Monday and Tuesday face a limited to elevated risk of excessive rainprimarily impacting interior, northwestern, and western areasthis risk will decrease to a limited level on Wednesday as mid-level moisture drops. Consequently, these conditions may lead to water ponding on roadways, urban and small stream flooding, and even isolated flash floods in areas with an elevated risk level, alongside a continued risk of landslides where terrain is already saturated from recent rainfall. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Surface high pressure across the central to eastern Atlantic will promote mainly southeasterly low-level wind flow during most of the long-term period, becoming more easterly early next week, at around 10 to 18 knots. The latest models show that precipitable water content will remain mainly near seasonal values, between 1.75 and 2.0 inches, except from Friday night into early Saturday, when values may decrease to around 1.5 inches (25th percentile), as low concentrations of Saharan dust particles are expected to start arriving. By Thursday and Friday, models continue to indicate mid to upper- level lows, bringing some instability and 500-mb temperatures cooling to below-seasonal values, around -8 to -9 degrees Celsius. Models have been adjusting, bringing drier air into the 850 to 700- mb levels and also into the mid to upper levels during the weekend. With marginal instability aloft, daytime heating, and local effects, at this time Thursday and Friday look like two days with frequent passing showers across windward areas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, along with strong afternoon thunderstorms across parts of the interior into northwestern Puerto Rico. If this scenario materializes, it could produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and locally gusty winds. A limited to elevated flooding risk is possible during this period, meaning that flooding in urban areas, on roads, and in small streams and washes is possible. As previously mentioned, Saturday looks like the day Saharan dust will start to infiltrate the islands. Additional mid-level drying is expected. As a result, rain chances are expected to decrease, and afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, driven by local effects, should remain more confined to northwestern Puerto Rico and decrease in intensity. From Sunday into early next week, low-level winds are also expected to strengthen somewhat and available moisture gradually increase. That should allow for a more typical pattern, with morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convection across western sectors of Puerto Rico. A persistent hazard during the long term will be the heat. It will largely depend on cloud cover and the coverage and timing of showers, but overall, the combination of seasonal moisture, mainly southeasterly winds, and 925-mb temperatures around two standard deviations above normal will likely result in warm to hot conditions, particularly from 11 AM to 4 PM, which are typically the peak heat hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Mostly VFR conds expected across all terminals thru the forecast period. Passing SHRA may result in VCSH and briefly lower VIS/CIGs at TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru 21/14Z. SHRA/TSRA will increase across central and western PR aft 21/16-17Z, affecting mostly TJBQ/TJSJ. Winds light/VRB overnight, becoming E-ESE 10-15 kt after 21/14Z with sea-breeze variations and higher gusts near TSRA. Light/VRB winds expected overnight aft 21/23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 A weak surface high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to moderate easterly trades of 5 to 15 knots through Monday, with winds gradually becoming east by late Monday into midweek as high pressure over the northeastern Atlantic becomes better organized. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 feet across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, including the local passages. Passing showers may briefly increase winds and seas, while afternoon thunderstorms moving into the western coastal waters of Puerto Rico may produce locally strong gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning through the early evening hours. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 215 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2026 Expect the low rip current risk to prevail across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through midweek. However, even with a low risk, life-threatening rip currents can occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. From late Wednesday onward, a moderate risk is expected to return across the north and east-facing beaches of the islands, due to a small long-period northeasterly swell and as winds increase slightly across the coastal waters. Other beach hazards will be heat, and thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning strikes during the afternoon hours. Beachgoers should remain hydrated and limit prolonged sun exposure, and seek shelter whenever they hear thunder. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279501 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 209 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watch has been issued for portions of the southern ocean waters Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain continues this afternoon into early Monday morning. Breezy, cloudy, and cooler Monday afternoon. - Dry and cool through mid week. Watching the potential for a coastal low to form mid to late week, bringing chances for strong winds and rainfall heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Light rain continues this afternoon into early Monday morning. Breezy, cloudy, and cooler Monday afternoon. A raw, cool, and rainy afternoon continues across southern New England, with rain persisting through much of the evening. Rainfall will be predominantly stratiform with generally light to occasionally moderate rainfall rates. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out near the south coast, though the risk is quite low. Overall, additional rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75 inch are expected, with some localized variability. Flooding is not a concern with this event. Rain gradually shifts offshore overnight, coming to an end by or before daybreak Monday. It remains raw and wet overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and a breezy northerly wind. As for Monday, showers linger just offshore along a frontal boundary while 1030 mb high pressure builds in from the northwest. This results in a tightening pressure gradient and breezy north-northeast winds throughout the day, especially near the coast where gusts top out around 20-25 mph. Clouds hang tough for much of the day, though there may be a few glimmers of sunshine. It will remain cool, with highs ranging through the 60s. Clouds remain Monday night as well, with lows falling into the 40s across much of the region, while the urban centers remain in the lower 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and cool through mid week. Watching the potential for a coastal low to form mid to late week, bringing chances for strong winds and rainfall heading into the weekend. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that an anomolously strong high pressure system will develop over Quebec Tuesday and linger into Wed/Thurs. This system likely keeps temperatures across New England cooler than normal, in the low to mid 60s, with a cooler airmass and several days of prolonged northeasterly flow. Despite the large areal coverage the Canadian high spans, guidance indicates the formation of a weak Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic region that could push just far enough north into NJ to brush southern New England with spotty showers. Still some uncertainty in how far north that low could move, but general consensus in some low-end PoPs across the southern coast Tuesday... higher chances across southern CT, closer to NYC. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate potential for a coastal low to form Wednesday into the later half of the week. While there is still a large amount of uncertainty in the forecast this time, the overarching trend has been the low slowly meanders north into the waters south of Nantucket; however, each model has this low taking a slightly different track: the GFS pushing further NE and closer to Nantucket, and the ECMWF further NW and closer to Long Island. Regardless, this system is likely to bring strong winds, rain, and the potential for erosion/coastal flooding. Highest confidence at this time pertains to winds, especially over the waters. As the low deepens and approaches to the south, the Canadian high over Quebec is also likely to strengthen and expand, leading to a tighter pressure gradient over New England. Given there`s still uncertainty in how strong the low and high get as well as the track of the low, there is still some question as to how strong the gradient will get. However, confidence is increasing in the potential for Gale Force winds across the southern waters, and a Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday evening through at least Thursday morning. The latest ensemble guidance is also showing roughly 50 percent probabilities of Storm Force wind gusts across the ocean waters south of Long Island and Block Island as well as 20 to 30 percent probabilities of Storm Force gusts over Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay as the low deepens Friday into Saturday. Winds over land along the south coast, Cape, and Islands throughout the week are more likely to be a touch slower than the marine winds, but still gusty... more on the order of 25-35 mph. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in ceilings. IFR with localize LIFR ceilings early this morning with visibilities generally mainly between 2-5SM. Patchy fog possible through 12Z. -SHRA slowly exits the eastern terminals early this morning and should be offshore the Cape and Islands by 15Z. Winds shift to the N at 8-12 kt. Today...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing and ceilings. IFR/MVFR improving to VFR through the day, though exact timing is lower confidence. General trend is ceilings improving to VFR 09-14Z for interior terminals and 13-16Z for more east terminals (BOS, PVD). Improvement trend will be likely slow for Cape/Islands potentially not VFR until 18Z-21Z. NNE to NE winds increase to 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt possible across the Cape/Islands. Gusts diminish by 00Z, although sustained winds 10-12 kts possible for Cape/Islands early evening. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR. Lower-end VFR ceilings are possible near the southern coast and Islands closer to 12Z. NNE winds 8-12 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt across the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Ceilings improving to VFR 12-15Z. NNE winds 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts developing after 15Z through around 21Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night...High Confidence. A low pressure system riding along a frontal boundary brings widespread rain to the waters this afternoon and evening. There is a low chance for a few rumbles of thunder, primarily across the southern waters. Rain ends early Monday morning, though a few showers could linger across the southern outer waters as the front sags south. Winds shift from E/SE to N/NE tonight as the front pushes south. Gusts increase with cold air advection Monday morning, which has prompted Small Craft headlines for all southern waters and Cape Cod Bay through Monday afternoon. Seas build to 3-5 ft, with the highest seas across the outer waters. Winds subside Monday evening, albeit briefly, ahead of another period of stronger winds Tuesday, for which a Gale Watch has been issued. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ255-256-282-283. && $$ |
| #1279500 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 213 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. Overall forecast thinking remains similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Storms on Tuesday, followed by unsettled conditions mid-week trending cool and dry for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Storms on Tuesday, followed by unsettled conditions mid-week trending cool and dry for the weekend. Ill-defined 5h cutoff lingering over central FL today will weaken and eventually begin drifting northeast tonight into Tue. An enhanced area of deeper moisture and some PVA associated with the cutoff will rotate onshore later today. While these features are weak, the timing does open the door for isolated weak afternoon showers along the coast, especially the SC coast where PVA is strongest. What`s left of the 5h low, along with its moisture and weak PVA, brush the area Tue, increasing rain chances. Best chances will be afternoon and evening when surface based instability peaks. Environment is not really supportive of strong or severe storms, so while lightning will be a risk, severe weather potential is very low. Rain chances remain elevated Wed following the passage of a cold front, driven south by a 5h trough early Wed. Post front a cooler, more stable air mass arrives with a wedge setting up at some point Wed. More likely to see true rain Wed/Thu vs convection, although forecast soundings suggest at least some potential for elevated convection Wed, especially near the coast, as the 5h trough axis passes. The trough ends up cutoff just off the Mid-Atlantic coast for the later half of the week. Deep dry air and cooler temperatures follow, leading to a stretch of dry weather with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR across the area, but expecting this to change, especially in coastal NC. Light to calm boundary layer winds and an influx of Atlantic moisture in the low levels (925 mb RH >90%) will allow for fog development before daybreak. Farther inland low level moisture (925 mb RH AoB 70%) is lacking which will keep fog less widespread and more transient in nature. Confidence in these 2 locations is moderate, but along the SC coast have lower confidence. There is an abundance of low level moisture, but boundary layer winds are just a bit stronger. Strong enough to stave off MVFR/IFR fog development is the question. Suspect some patchy MVFR fog develops along the SC coast, but the winds will be enough to prevent IFR and lead to visibility bouncing between VFR and MVFR. Fog and/or stratus dissipates between 13-14z with VFR conditions and light winds through this evening. Extended Outlook...Another round of low cigs/vsby is possible Tuesday morning, followed by a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in showers/thunderstorms/rain Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Waters remain under the influence of an ill-defined pressure gradient into Tue night before the passage of a cold front ushers in an extended period of enhanced northeast flow. Gradient remains tight into the weekend with low pressure lingering offshore. Headlines will likely be required at some point on Wed and given the strength and duration of the northerly flow seas could require several days of headlines before conditions slowly improve over the weekend. Currently does not appear winds will reach gale thresholds, Wed night or Thu, but something to keep an eye on. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279499 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 151 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - A nearly stationary disturbance aloft will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area the next few days. - A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening, with the main threats being strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3 inches. - A cool front is forecast to cross the area Thursday with lower rain chances and slight cooling late week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Rest of Today-Tuesday...A glance at a loop of GOES-East visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low locked over the Florida peninsula, evident in the cloud motions. Deep moisture, with PWATs over 2" and upper level support have allowed for isolated to scattered showers and a few storms to develop prior to 2 PM. Expect coverage to increase over the next few hours along the sea breeze, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. Prevailing onshore flow will progress this activity inland and to the west coast later this afternoon and into this evening. PoPs decrease accordingly towards sunset. Until then, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3". A few showers and storms will be possible again overnight along the coast, as a few cells drift inland along continued onshore flow. Similar conditions are forecast through early this week. The upper level low persists over the Florida peninsula on Monday, before moving NE and merging with an approaching upper level trough on Tuesday. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.2") will support scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms in the afternoons. Activity looks to develop along the sea breeze by early afternoon, then drift inland along the dominant east coast sea breeze into the evening hours. Isolated strong storms will remain possible, though 500 mb temperatures look to warm from near -8 C today to -6 C Tuesday. Late night/early morning showers and storms may continue to drift into coastal areas, as scattered to numerous convection persists over the Atlantic waters overnight. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and high humidity will support peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Wednesday-Sunday...An upper level trough drops SE out of the Great Lakes region mid-week, moving offshore. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system off of the US east coast drifts NE over the western Atlantic. These features are forecast to stack and deepen off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday and Friday, then meander offshore of New England into the weekend. Locally, a surface cool front attached to this low looks to drop southward into the Florida peninsula Wednesday. The front is forecast to weaken, slowing as it approaches the local area, where it lingers through the end of the work week and finally moves south of the forecast area by the weekend. Little change to the sensible impacts Wednesday and Thursday compared to earlier in the week. Deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") persists over the area, while the presence of the front maintains enough lift for numerous (60-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoons. Will also see chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-30%) persist along the coast during the overnight hours, as NE flow continues. Winds remain around 10 mph or less Wednesday, before a tightening pressure gradient behind the front increases winds to 10-15 mph (gusts 20-25 mph) from Melbourne northward through the day Thursday. Gusts near 30 mph are possible along the Volusia County coastline by the evening hours Thursday, with sustained winds 25-30 mph just offshore. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s continue. As the front moves into south Florida Friday and into the weekend, drier air (PWATs below 1.5") will begin to filter into northern portions of the forecast area. Thus, PoPs diminish from north to south, becoming isolated to scattered (20-50%). Breezy NE flow continues, especially on Friday, with winds 10-15+ mph and gusts 20- 25 mph in the afternoons. Drier air and onshore flow will allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees to the mid to upper 80s. However, the main difference will be the drier air leading to lower max heat indices. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions persist into mid-week this week, as NE winds remain around 10 kts or less. However, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms persist each day, especially overnight. A few strong storms will be possible, capable of wind gusts near 40 kts and lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft. A cool front is forecast to move through the local waters into Thursday, increasing NE winds to 20-25 kts north of Cape Canaveral by the evening hours. Conditions look to deteriorate progressively southward into Friday, with seas building to 6-9 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A small area of stratus and isolated showers near KVRB/KFPR may lead to brief IFR/LIFR conditions through 08Z. Difficult to say if it will hold on any longer, but patchy fog will be possible across the Treasure Coast through early this morning, so will continue to monitor. Additional isolated showers/storms will again be possible along the coast through this morning, and then again expecting scattered to numerous showers and storms into the afternoon with the inland moving sea breeze. Have VCTS starting at 17Z, with PROB30/TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA cig/vis from 18-21Z for most sites (except DAB). Should still see majority of convection diminish and shift west-southwest of the area by 00Z. Light and variable winds will pick up slightly out of the E/NE around 5-9 knots into the afternoon as sea breeze moves through. Gusty and variable winds will be possible near any storms or heavier showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 74 88 74 / 30 10 40 10 MCO 89 73 90 74 / 60 20 60 10 MLB 87 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 30 VRB 87 73 88 73 / 50 20 60 30 LEE 90 73 90 74 / 50 20 50 20 SFB 88 73 90 74 / 50 10 60 10 ORL 88 74 90 75 / 50 10 60 10 FPR 87 72 88 73 / 60 20 70 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1279497 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1249 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Sustained daily opportunity for rainfall, especially Wednesday and Thursday. - Continued hot temperatures, but no extremes. - Elevated risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period. However, the center of the high, positioned generally over east Texas, will produce a more easterly and moist flow off of the neighboring Gulf of America, with precipitable water values hovering near 2 inches. This will have the result of enhancing the daily seabreeze boundary, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the BRO CWFA. At this time, the best chances for precipitation are Wednesday and Thursday, with the best combination of moisture and easterly flow. Temperature-wise, above normal to well above normal values will occur, despite the autumnal equinox officially kicking-off on Tuesday 22 September at 7:04 PM CDT. Finally, winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a low to moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, with the highest probabilities around 30% at MFE. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible if any convection moves over an airfield. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with light and variable winds overnight becoming southeasterly around 10 knots Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the next several days. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 20 10 40 10 HARLINGEN 99 76 98 76 / 20 10 40 10 MCALLEN 102 79 100 79 / 30 0 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 99 77 / 10 0 40 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 94 79 / 20 20 30 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279498 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1249 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Sustained daily opportunity for rainfall, especially Wednesday and Thursday. - Continued hot temperatures, but no extremes. - Elevated risk of rip currents at the local beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Broad 500 mb high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period. However, the center of the high, positioned generally over east Texas, will produce a more easterly and moist flow off of the neighboring Gulf of America, with precipitable water values hovering near 2 inches. This will have the result of enhancing the daily seabreeze boundary, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the BRO CWFA. At this time, the best chances for precipitation are Wednesday and Thursday, with the best combination of moisture and easterly flow. Temperature-wise, above normal to well above normal values will occur, despite the autumnal equinox officially kicking-off on Tuesday 22 September at 7:04 PM CDT. Finally, winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a low to moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, with the highest probabilities around 30% at MFE. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible if any convection moves over an airfield. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with light and variable winds overnight becoming southeasterly around 10 knots Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the next several days. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 20 10 40 10 HARLINGEN 99 76 98 76 / 20 10 40 10 MCALLEN 102 79 100 79 / 30 0 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 99 77 / 10 0 40 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 94 79 / 20 20 30 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279495 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Through Wednesday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast opens into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, which then shifts east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, shift a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the region. The push is greater west of the Mississippi River, shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area south. Guidance is inconsistent with the shift, with some dropping moisture levels to 1.5" or less by Wednesday evening (most mesoscale models) to 1.5"-2" (the global models and ensembles). Any which way one cuts it, POPs drop into mid week. In combination with the building upper ridge, scattered PoPs Monday drop to isolated, seabreeze driven by Wednesday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-1000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible each afternoon/evening into mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal norms into mid week. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range are expected. Boundary layer moisture remains high enough for heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range. Low temperatures do see a bit of a drop with the drop in deep layer moisture, from low to mid 70s Monday night, to the upper 60s to around 70 inland, mid 70s along the coast Wednesday night. Thursday on...as the surface low off the East Coast organizes a bit more, then moves north along the coast, a secondary cold front moves southwest along the Appalachians, reinforcing the dry air over the Southeast along with dropping temperatures to near seasonal norms by the end of the coming weekend. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through the week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf coast in the coming weekend, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Some patchy fog is possible overnight mainly over interior areas, then isolated to scattered showers and storms develop Monday afternoon and linger into the evening hours. MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible with the stronger storms. Light and variable winds overnight become northeasterly to easterly around 5 knots on Monday, with a switch to a southeasterly direction near the coast in the afternoon. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A light, diurnally driven flow is expected into mid week. A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the week into the weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 92 72 93 / 20 30 0 10 Pensacola 75 91 75 92 / 20 20 0 10 Destin 75 90 76 91 / 20 20 0 10 Evergreen 68 94 68 94 / 20 20 0 10 Waynesboro 70 95 69 93 / 20 20 20 0 Camden 71 94 69 92 / 20 20 10 0 Crestview 69 93 70 93 / 20 20 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279494 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday has expanded some to now include all of west of I-95. The Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Tuesday has been removed from the area. Confidence continues to increase for a coastal low bringing rainfall, cooler temperatures, and a breezy forecast mid to late week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for showers and storms returns today and Monday as a slow- moving front moves in. 2) Persistent onshore flow and a potentially strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. 3) Widespread minor to moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1-2 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the middle of the week due to strong northeast winds, with localized major tidal flooding possible. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday.. KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for showers and storms returns today and Monday as a slow-moving front moves in. Latest wx analysis shows a slow moving cold front across the Ohio River Valley slowly approaching the area today and Monday. With the front approaching, there is a chance of showers/storms both days. This afternoon/evening, the best chance for scattered showers/storms will be in the north/northwest portions of the area. An isolated strong to severe storm with damaging wind gusts in the piedmont cannot be ruled out, as SPC maintains a Marginal Risk of severe weather across this area today. With the approaching front being rather weak and not having enough strength to cross the local area, storms will likely struggle to become strong from lack of forcing. Some shower activity could linger into the overnight hours. Monday, the slow moving front will continue to push further south, potentially taking all day to reach the NC border, and then pushing back north overnight. This will create quite a gradient in temperatures for Monday. For those north of the front, generally Richmond and north, highs will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. South of the front, mid to upper 80s will once again make their presence known. Our far southern NC localities could even approach 90 degrees. If the front does change its timing at all, this will affect the temperature forecast. The front will once again bring another chance of showers and storms, with the best chance south of the front with the higher amounts of instability. Showers and storms may be able to develop in the southern half of the area Monday afternoon with the front and building back towards the northern half. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of severe weather west of I- 95, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. WPC continues with a Marginal Risk of excessive flooding for areas generally west of I-95 as well. KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a potentially strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast for most of the week. The forecast for the rest of the week will be highly dependent on the location and strength of a developing low pressure off the coast. With the large high pressure parked to our north, we will be entering a prolonged period of onshore flow. A Cold Air Damming wedge set up looks likely for us Tuesday into Wednesday, though it isn`t quite as strong as what models were portraying the last few days. With the wedge, forecast highs vary greatly across the area with highs on Tuesday in the lower 70s (locally upper 60s) in the piedmont and MD Eastern Shore and lower to mid 80s across SE VA/NE NC. Wednesday`s highs are cooler with temperatures in the lower 60s across the piedmont to mid 70s across SE VA/NE NC. Will note that the NAM, which typically is the most aggressive (but can have the right idea with wedge set ups) has highs in the mid 50s in the piedmont and lower 70s along the coast on Wednesday. Along with the cooler temperatures, breezy winds and wet conditions are expected through the end of the week. Winds will begin to increase on Tuesday as well, with coastal areas seeing gusty conditions by the evening and potentially lasting all the way into at least Friday. Rain chances will persist each day next week, with WPC placing us in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall each day. The previous Slight Risk on Tuesday has been removed. Guidance does keep trying to develop localized areas of significant rainfall totals off and on through the period, so keep in mind that some instances of flash flooding may be possible as those rain chances remain. Some guidance is even showing a secondary surface low developing off our coast later in the week, which would prolong the period of impactful weather even longer. Regardless, this coastal low will bring impactful weather to our area for an extended period of time. Model differences and timing limitations are still creating some uncertainty in the details, so please stay tuned to the latest forecast as we work out the details. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread minor to moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1-2 feet AGL in vulnerable areas) is likely by the middle of the week due to strong northeast winds, with localized major tidal flooding possible. Strong northeast winds are expected from Tuesday night through at least Thursday, which will cause water levels to rise across much of the area (especially along the bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic coast). No tidal flooding is expected through Tuesday. A significant rise in tidal anomalies is forecast on Wednesday. Minor tidal flooding is likely (locally moderate) as early as the Wednesday morning high tide cycle, with minor to moderate flooding forecast during the Wednesday evening high tide, with localized major flooding possible. This corresponds to inundation of 1-2 ft AGL in vulnerable areas (locally 2-3ft). Specifics will become more clear as we get closer. The highest water levels will likely occur along the south/west side of the Ches Bay, tidal York/James, and Atlantic coast. The minor to moderate tidal flooding potentially persists through several tide cycles as NE winds remain elevated. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions are in place early this morning to start the 06z period. A cold front will gradually progress from north to south through the local area late tonight through late this morning. Confidence is increasing in MVFR CIGS along and behind the front. There`s some potential for IFR at SBY from 09-14Z, which is noted in a TEMPO group. Patchy ground fog is also possible just ahead of the front tonight, with the best chances roughly from the RIC vicinity and points W. A light S-SW wind tonight will shift to the NE behind the front and increase to ~10 kt. As we get into Monday afternoon, SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs are likely to linger through the rest of the TAF period. Lastly, that front could spark some SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, though the best chances for precip are expected to reside W and SW of the local terminals for now. Activity could linger into the overnight and potentially impact the terminals, but confidence is currently low. Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to persist through most of the upcoming week, with at least intermittent degraded flight conditions likely. Coastal terminals will also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended period. && .MARINE... As of 325 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through Monday, although a brief east to northeasterly surge is possible late Monday afternoon/early evening behind a cold front. - SCA level winds are forecast beginning late Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence in a period of gales with NE winds continues to increase from Tuesday night-Thursday, with the strongest winds likely occurring from Wednesday-Thursday. This will lead to significant to potentially dangerous marine conditions with 10-13+ ft seas. High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast this aftn. The wind is generally S/SE 10-15kt, and locally S 15-20kt off the MD coast. Seas range from 3-4ft N to ~4ft S, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally 2-3ft at the mouth of the Bay. The wind gradually becomes SW 10-15kt this evening and then shifts to N later tonight as an initial boundary drops S along the coast. Seas will mainly be 3-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Confidence remains high in a significant pattern change this week. A stronger cold front will initially cross at least the northern half of the marine area on Monday, potentially making it to the VA-NC border. Winds will become NE and could increase to near 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by Monday evening (best chances N). The front then may stall for a bit Monday night into the first part of Tuesday before advancing south across the entire marine area Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. NE winds are progged to increase to 20-25 kt south/25-30 kt north by Tuesday evening as stronger CAA ensues. A few gale force gusts are possible north of Parramore Island as early as late Tue aftn. Conditions could briefly approach SCA criteria across the Ches. Bay late Monday aftn/early evening. However, the duration is short and wind probs are no quite high enough to support any flags at this time. An impressive 1040mb high will build across eastern Canada by the middle of the week as low pressure deepens a couple hundred miles offshore of the VA/NC coast. This will help strengthen the CAA and tighten the pressure gradient over the local waters. The strongest winds are still expected to occur on Wednesday-Thursday as the strong high remains anchored over southern Quebec and the offshore low continues to gradually deepen. The global models are in better agreement with respect to timing, and confidence in frequent gale force gusts is now high with local wind probs showing a 70-100% chc of 34+ kt wind gusts from Wed aftn through a good part of Thu. While prevailing gusts are generally forecast to be in the 35-40 kt range, a ~6 hour period of sustained gales with 40-45 kt gusts is possible across the ocean and mouth of the Ches Bay during this time. This will lead to significant to potentially dangerous marine conditions from late Tuesday night through Thursday due to the strong winds and 10-13+ ft seas. It remains too early for Gale Watches, but expect these to eventually be issued for most of the marine area as the event gets closer. Solid SCA level winds will likely continue through the end of next week as the low potentially lingers offshore, with the wind trending to northerly later in the week and potentially NNW by later next weekend. Of course, the exact timing and placement of the synoptic scale systems are not locked in place yet, but models continue to come into better agreement regarding the general pattern. We will continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in time. There is a moderate rip current risk forecast for all beaches Monday from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by the middle of the week with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach erosion is possible from mid to late next week as well depending on how things evolve. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for ANZ650-652-654-680-682-684. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for ANZ656-686. && $$ |
| #1279492 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Highest risk of a shower/storm will be in our northern counties and along the sea breeze boundary in our southern counties. - Hot temperatures with daily isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week. - Less humid later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid/upper WV imagery coupled with 500 MB RAP analysis indicate that ridging overhead has broken down somewhat, with a modest troughing feature setting up across northern and central Texas. This system should supply a little extra lift to the SE TX atmosphere, which will at least give a slight boost to diurnal PoPs on Monday. Already we have had showers and thunderstorms in central Texas Sunday evening and couldn`t rule out a few showers managing to make into our northwestern-most areas overnight. For Monday, the best chance of receiving isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across our northern counties and in areas that experience the sea breeze boundary (southern / coastal counties). Tuesday and Wednesday will also feature a chance of isolated showers/storms, albeit lower and more associated with the sea breeze. However, a plurality of ensembles suggest Wednesday may have better chance of showers/storms due to an approaching boundary (spoken about in the next paragraph). Afternoon temperatures should be well into the 90s with high humidity and triple digit heat indicies. Mid/upper ridging becomes more stout over central CONUS as a trough digs south over E CONUS during the second half of the week. This will keep things toasty while our friends back east experience a good cool down. However, it still appears a backdoor boundary of sorts may drop humidity levels by Thursday, with temperatures possibly dropping a few degrees as well. That being said, late- week temperatures are likely to skew a little warmer than normal. There`s some ensemble support for a more meaningful front around the 1st of October. But it`s much too early to get excited about that. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions continue as winds become light and variable through late Monday morning. Showers/storms associated with a boundary pushing through central TX continues to gradually fall apart. As we saw on Sunday morning, the potential for intermittent periods of patchy fog at CXO/UTS continues in the early morning hours. Winds will remain southeasterly on Monday but should remain more in the 5-10 kt range outside of any convection. PROB30s have been added to account for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon hours. High-resolution model guidance is in agreement on convection developing along a lingering boundary near the northern terminals and along the seabreeze near the coastal and southern terminals. Current timing is generally in the 20Z-01Z timeframe. Convection subsides after sunset with winds becoming light and variable in the evening. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds (7-15 KT) Monday, are expected to become northeasterly by Tuesday. These winds should become more consistently moderate to occasionally fresh (10-20 KT) by Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a daily risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Gulf seas of 1 to 3 feet may increase to the 2 to 4 foot range by week`s end. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 30 20 Houston (IAH) 96 78 95 77 / 10 0 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 82 / 10 0 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279491 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 107 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The wet pattern for South FL will continue early this work week. An upper low over the northern part of the state will slowly lift to the northeast today and eventually get absorbed into the broader upper level flow on Tuesday. Meanwhile, moist southerly flow will be in place across South FL with HREF and forecast soundings showing PWAT values of 2.1-2.3 inches. Much like the past several days, convection coverage will likely be broader than what the Hi-res models are showing. Expected numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours both today and Tuesday, with the highest PoPs over the interior and east coast metro. While mean QPF values are generally 0.5-1 inch, highly efficient rainfall rates and slow moving storms will likely result in pockets of 2-4 inches across the area, and that is backed up by the HREF 6 hour max totals late in the day. Therefore, several instances of urban and poor drainage flooding should be expected and prepared for, especially across vulnerable portions of the east coast metro. WPC is carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the metro for both today and Tuesday. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be generally in the upper 80s to around 90, with the high temps occurring early in the afternoon before rain-cooled temps arrive. Low temps tonight will be in the low to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day. Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE 5-10 kts this afternoon, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms today may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 77 88 77 / 70 40 80 60 West Kendall 86 75 87 76 / 70 50 80 60 Opa-Locka 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60 Homestead 87 76 88 77 / 70 50 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 87 76 88 77 / 60 40 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 88 77 88 77 / 60 40 80 60 Pembroke Pines 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60 West Palm Beach 88 75 89 76 / 60 40 80 50 Boca Raton 88 75 88 76 / 60 40 80 60 Naples 88 75 88 76 / 40 50 70 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279490 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1206 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through much of the week, with highs near records thru mid week and generally above normal thru the weekend. - Rain chances will be highest today into Tuesday, but rain amounts will generally be less than one half inch this week as not much rain is expected for the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 The synoptic picture is quite easy to see with a upper low and trough over the Pacific coast. Another upper low over the northern Rockies and yet another centered over Florida(more of a TUTT feature). The upper highs are also extensive with a continental non-stacked high over northern Mexico. And the second upper maritime high over the Bahamas extending into the Caribbean. Today we will see the upper trough currently extending from southern TX NE to near the Great Lakes move east and will eventually be located over our region later today. This will definitely help weaken cap strength today and this is the reason for higher precip numbers than we have seen lately. We then fall under a N to NW flow regime by Tue which is not reflected in the mid level flow, so we should move back to more normalized ditribution levels of sh/ts. By late Tue into early Wed, we should begin to see a cold front moving south through Arkansas and northern Miss which will be visiting the gulf coast states by Wed night. The high behind this front is quite aggressive which is not totally abnormal for this time of year but is a bit early. The high looks to bridge the front along its direction of movement axis, which is over our area. This would effectively take precip numbers to 10% or less for Wed, even as the front passes late Wed night which would mainly be seen by dew pt gradients. Again, this type of pattern is very Octoberish, but does start some years by the end of September and leads to some of the driest weather we get during the entire year. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Heading into Thursday, the upper level ridge will be nearly centered over our area. This in turn keeps PoPs low, which is shown with no PoPs over 10% for any area onshore through Saturday. The outer waters may see some isolated convection, but nothing substantial. A deepening trough off the east coast and surface high pressure over the TN valley will begin to break the ridge down late Friday. This also introduces northeasterly flow in the lower levels, which brings in a little bit of drier air. This is shown in the afternoon dew points falling into the mid to upper 60s for many on Friday and Saturday. While the beginning of the long term period will see the continuation of above average high temperatures, heading into the weekend many areas fall a couple degrees into the upper 80s. We also see a downtrend in the morning lows, which drop into the mid to upper 60s for many especially northern areas. With this being pretty late into the forecast, some uncertainty remains and we will have to watch the trends of the upper level pattern over the east coast. HRL && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Not all terminals will be impacted by TSRA today, but there will be more storms around which will cause tempo IFR conditions for those that are impacted. All activity is expected to begin weakening after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Broad surface high remains close to the northern Gulf Coast, maintaining a weak pressure gradient and generally benign marine conditions. Winds will remain light and somewhat variable nearshore, becoming more consistently southerly during the afternoons. Storm coverage will increase today and any thunderstorm could briefly produce locally higher winds and seas along with frequent lightning. A more persistent northeast to east flow should develop Wednesday through the latter part of the week but remain 15 knots or less. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1279489 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 21.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1234 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms continue. A few storms may produce strong winds of 50+ mph and small hail. - A summertime pattern will continue through mid week. Potential for some drier air by late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Stagnant pattern will hold as an U/L low will remain quasi- stationary over west central Florida for one more day along with an associated pocket of cold air aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across west central and southwest Florida during the afternoon hours. The cold air aloft will enhance convective instability and the risk for damaging wind gusts and possibly small hail with stronger storms. PCPW values will remain around 2 inches. Expected slow storm movement will create the risk for localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. An U/L disturbance and associated S/W trough will dig across the Ohio River Valley Monday night through Wednesday, and will lift the U/L low over the peninsula Monday night and will finally be absorbed into the northern stream flow as the U/L trough approaches the eastern seaboard on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected across west central and southwest Florida each day as deep layer moisture with PCPW values around 2 inches will hold over the forecast area. An U/L ridge will build over the Lower Mississippi Valley and will extend briefly across the Florida peninsula mid week. However, a retrograding pattern will develop with the U/L ridge slowly pushing west, and a rex block will initially form over the northeast and mid Atlantic coast. As the overall pattern begins to amplify, a deep cut-off U/L low will develop along the eastern seaboard. This will induce U/L troughing over Florida and will likely push a frontal boundary south and down the Florida peninsula late in the week with drier air surface and aloft advecting across the region. This would significantly reduce pops, and dew points should drop below 70 in many areas for the first time in several months. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Partly cloudy skies with FEW-SCT250 through the morning hours at all terminals. SCT LCL BKN 030-040 will develop Monday afternoon across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also developing with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs, which may impact terminals for a few hours mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours. Best chance will be at PGD/FMY/RSW. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through mid week with winds and seas below cautionary levels. A frontal boundary will push across the waters late in the week with increasing northeast winds in the wake of the front with a period of cautionary to possibly advisory level winds. The gradient will weaken over the weekend with winds and seas subsiding. The main hazard through mid week will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly from the evening to the early morning hours, which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 60 40 FMY 89 75 89 75 / 60 40 80 40 GIF 90 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30 SRQ 90 74 89 75 / 50 30 60 40 BKV 91 71 91 72 / 50 30 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 77 / 60 30 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
