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| #1254409 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 606 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 555 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night. Wind chills could drop to near 10 degrees. - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Our last warm day until next week is upon us as two upper troughs, the first over Canada dropping into the Great Lakes and a very weak southern stream trough over the northern Gulf, will move through the broader longwave pattern tonight into Sunday. To start, very subtle moisture advection continues as winds have become more southerly in advance of the first southern impulse. This has led to a gradual rise in temperatures and dewpoints now sneaking into the 60s along the coast. As this system approaches, dewpoints will likely top out later this afternoon mainly south of highway 84. Fog development has been iffy along the bay but as advection increases and dewpoints reach their peak this evening we will need to watch Mobile Bay and surrounding land areas for the development of sea fog. Current HREF and NBM probabilities hint at this possibly starting around 4 to 5 pm as temperatures cool but dewpoints increase. Confidence in how dense and if fog will be able to settle with slightly elevated near surface winds around 15 knots and cloud cover is currently keeping us from issuing any fog products. Radar this afternoon has shown some weak isentropic showers mainly north of highway 84. These will likely continue through the afternoon before increasing in coverage tonight as the upper troughs move in and ascent increases. By tonight into Sunday, both upper troughs will begin to move into the area which will lead to a rather drastic change as cold arctic air plunges into the deep south Sunday into Sunday night. Some scattered showers will be possible along the approaching cold front late tonight into early Sunday morning before the gates of the arctic open. Looking at NBM probabilities and we continue to support temperatures being the coldest of the year. Probabilities of air temperatures less than 20 degrees are floating around 50-70 percent mainly north of highway 84 and probabilities of less than 25 degrees above 80% almost to the immediate coastline. Given the current trends getting colder and colder with each run and the fact that guidance tends to struggle with these shallow arctic airmasses, we have went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entirety of the area. On top of the cold temperatures we will likely see gusty winds behind the front leading to wind chills in the teens all the way to the coast.With wind chills dropping to near 10 degrees inland and 12 to 15 degrees along the coast, we will have to closely monitor the potential for some extreme cold products. The criteria is for wind chills less than 15 along the coastal counties and wind chills less than 10 inland. Given the current forecast, extreme cold products would be most likely across the coastal areas where winds may stay elevated enough to result in meeting criteria. This may look a little funky but overall coastal areas are not acclimated to these cold of conditions (as a coastal resident I can confirm that it will be wayyy to cold and I dread it already) and thus the impacts of cold temperatures tend to occur before areas further inland that are more acclimated. This is the reasoning for the higher thresholds across the coastal county and why we may end up with extreme cold products for areas that are technically warmer than areas to the north. The good news is this cooldown is only temporary and things will quickly flip next week as the pattern flattens out and upper ridging begins to build over the eastern US. Expect a gradual warmup through next week as temperatures will rebound into the 70s by Thursday. Our next rain chances look to come well after next && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. Patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense, along with IFR or lower ceilings, are expected to develop later this evening and into the early morning hours, especially along coastal counties. By around 09-10z, any fog that did manage to develop should begin to dissipate and rain chances should increase as a strong cold front approaches from the north. Rainfall could bring temporary reductions in visibility and ceilings. VFR conditions will return by the late morning/early afternoon hours in the wake of the front. Light and variable winds tonight will become northerly by mid morning and quickly increase to around 20-25 knots, with gusts close to 30 knots. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. A Gale warning is now in effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 47 56 23 49 / 60 30 10 10 Pensacola 52 61 27 50 / 40 30 10 10 Destin 53 64 31 51 / 30 30 10 10 Evergreen 43 52 21 50 / 70 30 10 10 Waynesboro 39 47 19 48 / 90 20 10 10 Camden 39 47 19 48 / 80 20 10 10 Crestview 49 58 22 51 / 40 30 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254408 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 707 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week. - Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 An active frontal boundary across the Florida straits will spread a few showers over southwest Florida late tonight and early Sunday morning. Patchy fog will develop across the nature coast late tonight and will lift early Sunday morning. Otherwise, a cold front will push across the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with little in the way of any shower activity. Skies will clear in the wake of the front Sunday night and Monday...however, some cold air strato-cu that is expected to develop over the eastern Gulf may advect locally onshore. Much colder drier air will advect across west central and southwest Florida as strong Canadian high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. and Florida in the wake of the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Surface high pressure over Florida will keep light winds, rain-free and warm conditions over Florida through the day. A little farther to the south, a frontal boundary extends from east to west across the Bahamas, Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf. As high pressure weakens by early Sunday morning, this front will slowly lift northward over southwest Florida bringing increasing moisture and a chance of rain for southwest Florida starting early Sunday morning and continuing through the afternoon on Sunday. These areas of rain will be limited to southwest Florida with most of west central Florida and the Nature Coast staying rain-free. Another dry cold front will push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening, but is not expected to bring any rainfall with it. This cold front pushes south of Florida by Monday morning and strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. in the wake of this front. This high will help advect in some much colder air to start out next week. Early morning temperatures on Monday and Tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30`s along the Nature Coast and into the 40`s and 50`s for central and southwest Florida. High pressure pushes east into the western Atlantic by Wednesday morning allowing for continued rain-free conditions and a warming trend to set up over Florida. Temperatures moderate close to average by Wednesday and even warmer for the latter part of the week reaching the 80`s for daytime highs. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR CIGs are expected overnight at PIE/TPA/LAL/SRQ. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop over southwest Florida later tonight along with a few light showers. LCL IFR CIGs are also possible. All CIGs will begin to lift by Sunday afternoon with skies becoming partly cloudy as a cold front moves across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf will produce east through northeast winds around 10 knots through Sunday morning. Winds shift northerly on Sunday behind a cold front and will become gusty reaching Small Craft Advisory level by late Sunday evening and continuing through the day on Monday. Conditions improve by mid- morning on Tuesday as high pressure settles into the southeast U.S. This will keep northeast through east winds around 10-15 knots through Thursday, then further decreasing 5-10 knots for the latter part of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 No Red Flag fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, mainly over inland locations north of Tampa Bay. A chance of showers will be possible over SW Florida early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon as a front lifts northward. Clearing and breezy conditions expected on Monday as high pressure builds into the area. No other fire weather concerns anticipated into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 62 78 51 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 82 65 80 56 / 0 40 40 0 GIF 79 60 79 50 / 0 10 10 0 SRQ 80 62 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 BKV 78 53 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 65 76 54 / 0 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1254407 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 607 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong cold front passes through the region tonight. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected both ahead of the front (patchy fog) and behind the front (elevated winds and seas). - Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good portion of SE Tx late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze Watches have been posted for locations that haven`t seen their first freeze of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A smattering of light showers across the region today. Wouldn`t doubt if we see a few storms try and pop up later in the afternoon across the scntl parts of the CWA as some of the hires guidance trends suggest. Otherwise, the much anticipated cold front is expected to push through the area overnight and off the coast prior to sunrise Sunday. Scattered precipitation will end, as will any brief sea fog development, with the fronts passage. Much colder and breezy conditions will prevail in the wake of the front. Daytime highs on Sunday will likely be achieved during the nighttime or early morning hours, followed by falling/steady readings in the 50s/40s for the rest of the day. Continued cold Sunday night with freezing temperatures in the forecast for a good portion of the region (very roughly north of a High Island-Columbus line). This includes the Houston metro area where a light freeze is possible mainly outside the Beltway. Freeze Watches have been posted for the areas that haven`t seen their first freeze of the season. Madison, Walker, Houston, Trinity, and Polk Counties are almost certain to see a freeze too, but they`ve already experienced one this season...hence no Watch. High pressure will move to the east on Monday allowing southeast winds to resume late in the day...followed by warming trend thereafter. Temps will be back into the 60s at night and closer to 80 in the day Wed-Fri. Not out of the question that we`ll see some isolated-scattered showers Wed & Thurs with a weak mid-upper trough moving across. Most 12z deterministic guidance, with the exception of GFS, suggests the next weak front makes its way into, or close to the area Friday. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A somewhat tricky forecast for the overnight period. Cigs and vis are expected to continue to lower this evening and tonight to IFR-MVFR and areas of patchy to dense fog could also reduce vis for some of our sites, in particular for sites closer to the water due to the development of sea fog. In addition, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along a cold front that is progged to move through SE TX tonight. Winds will be light and VRB tonight, but N winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts of 23-30 KTS will develop in the wake of the front. Cigs will gradually lift and scatter out on Sun as drier air moves in, but winds will remain elevated through the evening, gradually relaxing during the night hours. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore winds and low seas are expected going into the overnight hours. We may see some fog redevelopment later this evening ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into the bays between 3-6am. Fog will lift, and precipitation will taper off, with the frontal passage...but strong, gusty north and northeast winds and building seas will fill in behind the front. Gusts to near or above gale are likely...especially in the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters...and a Gale Watch for the waters beyond 20nm offshore. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. Though too early for specifics, we might need to keep an eye out for the potential for an extended sea fog event during the second half of the week...especially if we see a substantial water temp fall behind tonight`s front. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 48 52 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 57 33 54 / 40 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 53 60 38 54 / 40 30 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-227-300-313. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for GMZ370-375. && $$ |
| #1254406 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 555 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 554 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 * A cold front approaches tonight and passes early Sunday, with dense fog expected tonight, a low to medium chance of rain Sunday, and cooler temperatures into Tuesday morning. * Hazardous beach, surf, and marine conditions are expected Sunday into Monday. * Warmer than normal temperatures return mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A persistent trough of low pressure with a series of winter systems works through the Great Lakes and New England through next week. Closer to home, the next 500mb trough is now expected to drop from Baja Cali down the western coast of Mexico through the week. At the surface, expect a warm day today, with above normal temperatures, and a very humid and potentially foggy night as the next front heads south. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed, with current probabilities over 60 percent for visibilities to drop below one-half mile between 2 AM and 8 AM. Have leaned further into the NAM guidance, since it is generally the undisputed model for shallow cold air events, and we may need to nudge temperatures cooler yet for Sunday through Tuesday. Rain chances have trended drier once again, with an earlier arrival of the front, now Sunday morning taking some instability back out of the equation. A weak coastal trough sets up behind the front and continues light rain or drizzle along the coast through early Monday morning. Beach conditions are expected to deteriorate by Sunday afternoon, with a high risk of life-threatening rip currents, elevated surf, and narrow beaches during high tide Sunday evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Key Aviation IDSS Messages: * IFR-VLIFR conditions are possible again tonight due to fog (possibly dense), mist, and/or low stratus. * Strong cold front arrives Sunday morning from north to south; winds will shift out of the north and become blustery late morning through the afternoon hours. Northerly winds could gusts as high as 25-30 kts. * Rain showers will be associated with the arrival and passage of the cold front on Sunday. Over the next 6-9 hours, the main weather concern like the previous couple of nights will be the potential for another round of fog (possibly dense), mist, and low stratus developing. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the environmental conditions this evening/tonight will be very similar to previous nights. That is light winds, mainly clear skies, and copious amounts of low level moisture. Given the persistence in the pattern and expectation of sufficient radiational cooling taking place through this evening, TEMPO groups have been added through tonight at all of the TAF sites to account for the potential for fog/mist/low stratus developing yet again. Any fog or low stratus that develops will have the capabilities of reducing flight categories down to MVFR and eventually IFR-VLIFR levels. Big changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place over the next 12-18 hours. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region from north to south during the morning hours, resulting in a wind shift out of the north along with the chances for showers beginning mid-late morning and persisting into the afternoon hours. Fog (possibly dense) and low stratus will be ongoing ahead and just behind the cold front. It may take time for the drier air to work its way into the region. That said, it`s possible that MVFR-IFR conditions could continue into the afternoon hours. Overall, expect for flying conditions to deteriorate over the next 6- 9 hours from VFR conditions to MVFR-LIFR conditions (possibly instances of VLIFR conditions) due to fog, mist, and/or low stratus. MVFR-VLIFR conditions are then expected to persist through the remainder of the 00z TAF period with showers possibly accompanying these conditions mid-late morning into the afternoon hours. South-southeast winds 10-15 kts this evening will weaken and trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. In response to a cold fropa, winds will shift out of the north Sunday morning. An enhanced pressure gradient associated with the cold front will result in northerly winds becoming blustery late morning through the afternoon on Sunday with speeds between 15-20 kts and peak gusts between 25-30 kts. This could impact east-west oriented runways on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Generally lighter onshore winds will maintain favorable marine conditions into late tonight. A strong cold front approaches Sunday morning, with showers and patchy dense fog late tonight. Northerly winds may gust occasionally to gale force, so will continue to monitor for an upgrade to Gale Warning if gale force wind gusts become more frequent, but have issued a Small Craft Advisory through Sunday night. Conditions begin to improve late Monday, with low to moderate southerly winds and seas through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 67 76 54 66 / 10 40 20 10 HARLINGEN 63 76 50 66 / 10 30 10 0 MCALLEN 67 76 51 66 / 0 40 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 75 50 65 / 0 50 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 58 65 / 10 50 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 75 55 64 / 10 40 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254405 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Melbourne FL 655 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of dense fog are forecast for portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Sunday morning. The greatest potential for dense fog will be along and north of the I-4 corridor. - Few showers and isolated lightning storms tonight into Sunday, mainly along the Treasure Coast. - Behind a strong cold front, north to northeast winds increase on Sunday night into Monday, with gusts to around 35 mph at the coast and gale-force offshore. At that time, expect rough surf, numerous rip currents, minor beach erosion, and dangerous seas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A couple hazards to monitor over the next 12-15 hours. First, we are still concerned that patchy to areas of dense fog will form tonight over the northern two-thirds of the district, including Greater Orlando. Statistical and mesoscale guidance continue to point at this potential overnight through sunrise. Already, winds are light and ample moisture is in place. Aside from the usual low confidence when it comes to radiative-type fog events down here, we also have some high cloudiness streaming in from the southwest. For now, the going forecast looks okay which calls for some fog formation after around 1-2 AM. Those venturing out late tonight should be on the lookout for sudden drops in visibility. Moisture and energy are impinging on the state from the south this evening, evidenced by showers and storms roaming around the Keys at this hour. Courtesy of a jet streak over Central FL, mesoanalysis reveals a pocket of upper-air divergence over that area. Guidance holds a large chunk of this activity just to our south, but 20-50% rain chances sneak into areas south of Melbourne overnight into Sunday AM. There is also a low chance for lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure system over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today. Surface high pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will continue to build southeast across the Deep South as high pressure across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula. Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain chances. Dry air will continue to filter across the area, with forecast PW values around 0.7-1.0" today. Northeast to east winds this morning will veer east to southeast this afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph. Guidance is showing patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Sunday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly from Melbourne to Lake Okeechobee northward and westward, with areas of fog generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s across the far north to mid 60s across the far south on tonight. Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county. The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 10-15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A High Surf advisory may be needed. Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Friday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far north part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday and Friday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast both days. The frontal passage Friday night looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today. East to southeast winds around 10 KT on today will veer northwest and increase to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas 1-3ft today will increase to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through today, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms on Sunday. Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20- 30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Volusia waters starting at 21Z on Sunday and going through 12Z Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Brevard waters for 21Z Sunday, expanding to the Treasure Coast waters starting at 03Z Monday and replacing the Gale Watch across the Volusia waters starting 12Z on Monday. The SCA will likely need to be extended in time for the Gulf Stream waters. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday before veering E/NE Tuesday at 10- 15 KT, and E/SE on Wednesday. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream before decreasing to 3-4ft on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 652 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 MCO IMPACTS: - Medium chance (40%) for VIS restrictions to IFR, 14/09-13Z. - Low chance (20%) for LIFR visibilities around sunrise. Seasonably ample moisture and very light winds overnight set the table for fog development. Models are insistent on this occurring, especially for the Greater Orlando and Daytona terminals. Caveat will be some passing mid/high cloudiness. MCO TAF is somewhat conservative (meaning, there is potential for worse conditions than the TAF shows); trends will be monitored. Worst conds are expected from around 08-09Z through around 13Z. VFR should prevail thereafter. At the same time, a few showers and isolated lightning are forecast to move NE`erly from SoFlo into the Treasure Coast after midnight. This activity looks rather scattered through Sunday AM. Late in the TAF period, a cold front approaches the terminals, turning winds northerly and gusty on Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 55 77 50 62 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 60 78 52 64 / 10 0 0 10 MLB 62 78 57 67 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 62 79 59 69 / 30 20 10 10 LEE 57 77 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 58 78 50 63 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 59 77 51 63 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 61 80 59 69 / 40 30 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254404 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 654 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 641 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Another round of fog, especially across the Florida Big Bend into south-central Georgia, is expected tonight ahead of the cold front. - A Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze for temperatures at or below 25 degrees is in effect for our Alabama and Georgia counties Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Freeze Watch for temperatures below 32 degrees is in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning across the area for wind chills between 15 and 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia and 16 to 24 degrees for Florida. - Additional Cold Weather Products likely needed Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Cold front nears our area tonight and will push through during the day Sunday. A few showers are expected along the front, especially across Southeastern Alabama, later tonight into Sunday morning. Even if we do get rain, not a whole lot is expected with less than 0.10 inch forecast. Temperatures will be tricky across the region on Sunday. Our northern counties will likely experience the warmest temperatures in the morning with dropping temperatures throughout the day. Meanwhile, the fog may limit heating across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia before breaking just ahead of the front; how much we`ll be able to warm there before the Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the front remains uncertain. So, admittedly, there is lower confidence than normal for this temperature forecast. That said, we`re forecasting highs for Sunday near 60 across our northern Georgia and Alabama counties and the upper 60s to near 70 farther south before the front drops temperatures behind it. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Cold. That sums up the forecast to start the period. Strong CAA will be ongoing Sunday night with air temperatures dipping into the middle to upper 20s for most of the area away from the coast, where you`ll be closer to 30. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin county, where the Freeze (for temperatures between 26-32 degrees) program is ongoing. And there is a Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze (for temperatures at or below 25 degrees) for our Alabama and Georgia counties. Northerly to northeasterly breezes at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to near 20 mph, will create Cold Weather Advisory Wind Chills, or below 25 degrees in Florida and below 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia. Due to increased confidence and collaboration with neighbors, have gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of our area for Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be cold with highs struggling to get out of the 40s across the entire region. Another cold night is in store Monday night as the surface high settles nearly overhead and should allow for decent radiational cooling. Additional cold weather products, either Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze or Cold Weather Advisories, may be needed. A note about Monday night/Tuesday morning: subtle moisture increase around 900mb could throw a wrench into the forecast, especially for the eastern third of our area, or south and east of a line from near Tifton to Apalachicola in the form of some cloud cover. A warming trend commences Tuesday afternoon with highs back near 60 Tuesday and near 70 again Thursday and Friday. Low chances for rain return later next week as an H5 shortwave races over the region. However, moisture return appears meager at this time and have capped rain chances at 20 percent. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Expect prevailing VFR conds until late tonight or early tmrw morning. Fog and/low stratus is once again a concern especially for the FL terminals - TLH has the best fog potential, of which may become dense (~10Z-13Z). Winds appear too elevated for fog at DHN/ABY with VLD having an outside chance of vsby restrictions. Tempo groups are in place for the anticipated affected TAF sites. Light to calm winds this evening increase out of the west to SW ahead of a sharp cold front overnight in addition to lowering cigs and perhaps -SHRA (DHN stands the best chance). Winds then quickly shift to northwesterly and become gusty following frontal passage after 12Z - sustained 12-15 kts gusts up to 25 kts. Skies gradually clear from west to east in the aftn, so VFR likely holds until then. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Northerly winds develop behind a strong cold front sweeping through the northeastern Gulf Sunday. A Gale Warning is now in effect for Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the waters east of Apalachicola later Sunday afternoon and will continue through Monday morning; Advisory level winds will follow the Gale warning for waters west of Apalachicola. Light to moderate easterly winds are forecast later Monday night with more favorable marine conditions returning to the northeastern Gulf for the middle of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Southwesterly transport winds rapidly turn northerly following the passage of a cold front Sunday morning into the afternoon. This cold front will bring a few showers to our Alabama districts, but the chance for a wetting rain is less than 5 percent. Very low dew points filter in Sunday night into Monday morning with dew points in the single digits forecast for much of our Alabama and Georgia districts along with breezy northerly winds. MinRH values Monday afternoon will be in the 20 to 30 percent range with temperatures in the 40s. Low dispersions are a concern Tuesday thanks to high pressure overhead. Another round of patchy to areas of dense fog is forecast tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 While a few showers are forecast later tonight into early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front, rainfall totals are forecast to be less than 0.10 inch. There is another chance for rain later in the work week, but chances are low, around 20 percent, at this time. No flooding is anticipated the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 63 30 48 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 55 63 31 51 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 51 59 26 46 / 30 10 0 0 Albany 51 57 25 44 / 20 10 0 0 Valdosta 47 63 25 46 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 48 73 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 65 34 50 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ751-752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1254403 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 649 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail tonight, then an arctic cold front will sweep through Sunday. Dry high pressure will then build overhead for much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Aloft, a zonal flow prevails for much of the night in advance of the digging trough across the Midwest. At the sfc, the Atlantic high will extend across the Southeast, while some troughing develops north and inland overnight. Although the pressure gradient remains modest between these features, conditions will remain noticeably more mild than the previous night while a light southwesterly wind advects warmer air into the region well in advance of a cold front. Only potential hazard to highlight overnight is the low (10% or less) risk for some patchy fog away from the immediate coast. Failure to decouple for an extended period, and increasing clouds late, should preclude any dense fog threat. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Bitter Cold Temperatures later Sunday into Tuesday... Sunday: Timing of arctic cold front Sunday coming into better agreement, crossing the area late morning. High temperatures of 60-65 will likely be reached midday, with strong CAA ensuing by early afternoon. A few showers are expected immediately ahead of the front, but rainfall rates will be modest and total rainfall will remain .25 in or less across the area. West- southwest winds in the morning will veer sharply to northwest and increase behind the front by midday. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible early-to-mid-afternoon, with a Lake Wind Advisory now in effect for Lake Moultrie Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. By Sunday night, a strong arctic surface ridge will build from the northwest, keeping northwest to north winds through the night. Temperatures expected to drop into the upper teens well inland, and lower to mid 20s else where, warmest near the coast. Ensemble suites are in good agreement, making windchill values of 5-15 early Monday morning (away from the water) a high predictability, high confidence forecast. Currently, highest probs (30-50%) for wind chill values less than 10F exist across the SC Lowcountry and interior SE GA, which probs are lower (20% or less) along the GA coast. The current configuration of Extreme Cold Watches and Cold Weather Advisories reflect these probabilities. Monday: Deep ridging is shown by all models to settle over the region, with lighter winds and mostly sunny/sunny skies. Despite full sun, guidance continues to hold high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid-40s, 15 to 20 degrees below normal! Monday night, high pressure will start centered over the region, then slowly shift offshore by late night. Light winds, clear skies and dry low levels should allow for strong radiational cooling. Very cold temperatures again expected, with lows around 20 well inland, to the mid 20s to near 30 closer to the coast. Tuesday: This period begins the moderation in temperatures, with the surface ridge shifting further offshore, allowing for low level winds to veer to southwest by afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, highs rebounding into the 50s all areas, which is still a tad below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... All global and blended model solutions show that the large scale/synoptic pattern shifts to zonal, with moderating temperatures through the period. Tuesday night will be the coldest period, with freezing temperatures again expected inland, and mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. Then Wednesday through Saturday, temperatures continue to warm, with temperatures near normal on Wednesday, to above normal Thursday through Saturday. The biggest forecast issue for this period will be how to handle the model differences with chances for precip. late in the period. Some models indicate the potential for another cold front to approach the area later Thursday and early Friday, but timing and amount of deep layer moisture vary between models. For now, the most likely scenario is for a weakening cold front to bring limited precipitation to the area Fri/Sat, with dry high pressure returning thereafter. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z TAFs: High pressure will prevail tonight, bringing VFR with light winds. An arctic cold front will quickly move through our area on Sunday. A few showers with MVFR ceilings are possible for a few hours during the day at KCHS and KJZI. Since probabilities are around 30%, we handled this with a PROB30 group. Further south at KSAV, no showers are expected. Though, ceilings should still drop to MVFR for a few hours. VFR returns to all of the TAF sites by the late afternoon. Additionally, there will be a quick wind shift to the NW and the winds will become very gusty. Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Sunday nigh through mid week. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate, though increasing gradient late ahead of an approaching cold front will bring slowly increasing winds. A few wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible across northern South Carolina waters and outer Georgia waters by the pre-dawn hours. Seas become 2-3 ft overnight in mostly local windswell. ...Hazardous Marine Conditions later Sunday into Monday... A strong arctic cold front will move through the waters later Sunday morning, likely passing through the entire region by midday. Southwest winds will veer sharply to northwest as the front crosses, with gusts to 35 kt possible across the coastal waters where a Gale Watch is now in effect Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. Inshore waters, including the Charleston Harbor, will also see gusty conditions as winds readily mix over the relatively warmer waters Sunday evening and overnight, with an SCA in effect accordingly. Hazardous conditions, especially for seas, are expected to remain through later Monday, especially beyond 20 nm offshore. Winds and seas are expected to fall below any highlight levels Tuesday through Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GAZ087-088. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ040-042>045-050-052. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ047>049-051. Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ330. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1254402 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 646 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the the Mid Atlantic late tonight night into Sunday, with accumulating snow possible Sunday, especially on the Eastern Shore. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... - A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions on Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Lower MD Eastern Shore for the potential for 1-2" of snow. - A brief period of light snow could amount to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation as far south as Richmond-Williamsburg. Transient sfc high pressure has shifted offshore with weak SSW flow ahead of an approaching Arctic cold front (which is still over the Appalachians). A deep trough is located over the Great Lakes and Ontario, with a shortwave tracking over the Midwest at the base of the trough. It is milder than it has been with temps in the mid 40s- lower 50s this afternoon. The Arctic cold front approaches the area tonight and crosses the area from late tonight into Sunday AM. The trough over the Great Lakes amplifies as it dives SE while the shortwave tracks across the Mid-Atlantic. The best forcing for ascent will miss us to our north. However, precipitation will enter far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. Precip will likely last a few hours over the northern neck and eastern shore. While likely PoPs extend to the RIC Metro, precip will last 2 hours at most across the SW 2/3 of the area (including the RIC Metro and Hampton Roads). The most likely timing for precip is from 4-10 AM across the northern neck/eastern shore, 6-10 AM in the RIC Metro, and 8 AM-1 PM in SE VA/NE NC. With the Arctic FROPA, precip may very briefly begin as rain but will quickly change to snow in most areas outside of far SE VA/NE NC. Still think that at least 0.1" is likely along and NE of a Richmond- Williamsburg line, with 0.5-1" expected across the northern neck, and 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore. Could see a dusting in Hampton Roads if the changeover occurs in time. The coldest air won`t arrive until Sun aftn/evening, so temps will only drop to 31-33F when the snow is falling. Therefore, accums will mainly be on grassy surfaces except on the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps the northern neck where snowfall rates may briefly reach 0.75"/hour. Have expended the Winter Wx Advisory to include all MD Eastern Shore counties. If snow lasts longer than expected, a "reasonable worst case" would be up to 3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday and peak in the afternoon as the strongest CAA arrives. Gusts up to 35 mph are likely inland, with 45 mph gusts expected at the immediate Atlantic coast. With this in mind, have issued Wind Advisories for the VA Eastern Shore, VA Beach, and Eastern Currituck starting Sun aftn and continuing through Sun night. Highs range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid- afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday night, there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for consistent messaging, even though the lower 5F criteria may not be reached in all central VA/VA Piedmont zones as winds diminish Sun night. The only other thing to watch for is the potential for some light bay effect snow showers in Accomack/Northampton Counties with the cold NW flow. The ECMWF and the vast majority of its ensemble members continue to forecast 0.02- 0.04" of QPF over a decent portion of the VA Eastern Shore Sun night, while the other models (including the RGEM and CAMs which normally pick up on this type of thing) have no QPF with the LLVL flow a little bit more westerly. This is still low confidence but have added slight chc for snow showers to these zones to account for the possibility. The Arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday night with lows in the low to mid 20s. A moderating trend begins on Tue as the high slides to our SE. Forecast highs are mainly in the upper 30s-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. December 2025 has been one of the chilliest on record for many of our climate sites. However, quite the change is on the way for the extended period, with a pronounced warming trend continuing into the midweek period and likely peaking Thursday. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by rather progressive, quasi-zonal flow and building heights/thicknesses Tuesday night through Thursday. At the surface, transient high pressure is expected to remain offshore to our SE. All of this favors milder temps with high temperatures in the mid 50s by Wednesday. A warm front then lifts northward Thursday in advance of another cold front. There is some uncertainty regarding the exact progression of the warm front which will determine how warm temps get. For example, some guidance pushes the warm front through earlier Thursday. This would allow for mild temps areawide Thursday. On the other hand, another possible solution has the warm front lifting north in the evening and overnight Thursday. This would favor cooler temps Thursday, especially across the N. Regardless, it will likely be very mild (for December`s standards) later Thursday and especially early Thursday night. The cold front crosses the region Thursday night, bringing another chance for precip. At this time, QPF looks inconsequential (ensemble means are around a 0.25" or less). High pressure builds back in from the W Friday, settling over the area Saturday. While it likely temporarily trends cooler for the weekend, there are no signs of any additional significant cold air outbreaks. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail at the start of the 00z/14 TAF period. High clouds and light 5 kt SW winds are expected for most of the night ahead of an Arctic front. The front will cross the terminals late tonight/early morning around 10-16z. A few hours of precipitation will likely accompany the front. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in -SN at RIC). Will note that LIFR VIS is possible at SBY with heavier snowfall. A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. In addition to the precip, CIGs will drop behind the front to IFR at all terminals before returning to dry and VFR conditions Sunday afternoon with terminals further west seeing clearing conditions first. Behind the front Sunday afternoon, NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. VFR conditions will prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Gusty winds Sunday night into Monday morning near the coast will diminish on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday morning, with Gale conditions expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night. - Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday. A strong cold front is located NW of the region this afternoon, with high pressure now centered well offshore. In between these features, a weak warm front has shifted the winds to the S-SW. Regardless, marine conditions are generally benign with wind speeds 15 kt or less (highest northern coastal waters). Any elevated southerly flow diminishes across the N this evening into tonight, with SW winds 5- 10 kt for most of the night. Then, the strong front (of Arctic origin) drops southward through the waters after 09z/4 AM. In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM Sun to 1 AM Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones starting early Sunday morning.Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday night due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, will keep mention of this out of the text forecast for now. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630- 631. Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ632- 634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254401 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 641 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach ENC tonight before crossing the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1 PM Saturday...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the low-to-mid 60s as of early Saturday afternoon as heights rise aloft ahead of the strong cold front that will push through ENC tomorrow. Temperatures will cool to the low-to-mid 40s by around midnight tonight before rebounding to around 50 as dawn approaches amidst increasing southwesterly flow and WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain chances begin to increase just before dawn across the western/northern portions of the forecast area as the front approaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... Key Messages: - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon. - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Hatteras Island and the NOBX from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is has been issued for all of ENC. An upper-level trough will dig into the mid-Atlantic region through the day on Sunday, with a strengthening 150 kt jet streak located downstream of this feature. DCVA coupled with forcing from the jet streak will yield strengthening low pressure offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, which will aid in driving a strong cold front through the region early Sunday. While moisture is somewhat limited, favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area, but rainfall totals are expected to be light (generally around a tenth of an inch or less). Chances begin to increase across the western and northern portions of the forecast area around dawn on Sunday before decreasing from west- to-east during the afternoon and early evening hours. Bulk of the precip will be rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain across the northern portions of the forecast area as precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon. No impacts or accumulation are expected, however. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of the approaching cold front through Sunday morning, but the pressure gradient will tighten sharply after the cold front passes as low pressure deepens offshore and an Arctic High builds in from the northwest. Northwesterly winds will be breezy behind this front, with gusts 25-35 mph possible across ENC. Winds will be strongest along Hatteras Island and the NOBX, with gusts of 35-45 mph forecast late Sunday and into Sunday night. Have issued a Wind Advisory for these areas given expected winds/gusts. Daytime highs will be reached across the forecast area by Sunday morning as the cold front pushes through ENC and moves offshore by noon, with cold air advection bringing falling temperatures through the afternoon. Temps fall into the 30s by Sunday evening before plummeting further into the upper-teens (low-20s OBX) Monday morning. Coupled with breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front, this will bring the coldest night of the season thus far, resulting in wind chill values of 5-15 F across ENC Monday morning. In response, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of ENC from late Sunday evening through Monday morning. Will continue to monitor potential for an Extreme Cold Warning should lows trend colder over the coming forecast cycles. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 PM Saturday... Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night will be cold once again, with temps in the low-20s (near 30 OBX). Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will remain light. As of now, this is expected to keep minimum apparent temperature values near but just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, with minimum wind chills in the 15-25 F range. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (30-50%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region late Thursday night. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 640 PM Sat... Key Messages - VFR conditions expected through late tonight - MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon Clear skies and light winds will persist through the first half of tonight as high pressure remains in place ahead of a cold front. After midnight clouds will begin to increase from west to east, with ceilings developing and lowering to MVFR levels by 5-7 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1500-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing (odds of 10-20% or less), but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest, between 13-18z. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon, however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am. Outlook: Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Monday. VFR conditions persist through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 2 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 30-40 kt expected Through this Evening...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through this evening as high pressure eases offshore. Current observations show southwesterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Tonight...Pressure gradient tightens tonight as cold front begins to approach from the northwest. In response, SCA conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with southwesterly winds increasing to 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds will be a bit lighter across the northern coastal waters and sounds/inland rivers, with winds 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts (although, occasional gusts to 25 kts will be possible across the southern and eastern Pamlico Sound). Seas build to 4-6 ft south (2-4 ft north) of Oregon Inlet tonight. Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Have upgraded the rest of the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings as of this forecast cycle. SCA conditions remain for the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo Rivers; however, some guidance does indicate roughly a 30-50% chance of reaching Gale Force gusts across these waters. This will be monitored across future forecast cycles for any potential updates. Seas build through the day on Sunday before peaking at 6-10 ft across the coastal waters Sunday night. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon on Monday. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254400 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 634 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Sunday Morning - Cold Weather Advisory for Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Cold Weather Advisory [Wind Chills: 15-25F] Set for Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Freeze Advisory for SE GA and Inland NE FL Sun Night & Mon. Hard Freeze Potential SE GA Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Gale Warning Set for Sunday Night & Monday Morning && .UPDATE... Some increase in high clouds tonight, but overall forecast remains on track with temps not as cold as previous nights with lows in the 45-50F range inland and 50-55F along the Atlantic Coast. Near calm winds at the surface will help to support locally dense fog formation across most of NE FL to the south of the I-10 corridor, while a slight increase in winds across SE GA towards morning ahead of approaching frontal boundary should prevent significant fog formation there. Latest model blend guidance suggesting about 20-40% chances of dense fog formation across portions of NE FL late tonight, but not confident in enough coverage to support dense fog advisories at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... The beautiful, warm, sunny day continues under the influence of high pressure this afternoon with highs pushing into the 70s areawide. Though weather conditions today are excellent, a large upper trough will begin its dive toward the southeast tonight. This will be a significant system as the airmass will be a true arctic airmass with a deep northwesterly flow with extending through Canada and into the southeastern US. The surface attendant surface front and arctic high aren`t expected to blast through the area until Sunday night, so preparations to protect sensitive plants, livestock, and people should begin today. As far as tonight, another cool but near normal December night is expected. The increasing southwesterly flow tonight should push lower-level Gulf moisture inland resulting in an increased fog potential for the Suwannee Valley, interior area of SE GA, and north- central FL where locally dense fog may develop by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will move southeast of the area Sunday morning, with a weak secondary front moving through in the afternoon, as strong high pressure builds to the northwest. A few showers will be possible with the frontal passage, mainly for inland SE GA, where better moisture will be. Temperatures will likely not fall a diurnal curve on Sunday, with readings peaking earlier in the afternoon, with readings then falling. Skies will slowly clear from northwest to southeast through day. Due to the gradient between the exiting frontal system and building high, winds will become elevated and gusty during the afternoon. On Sunday night the high will build more toward the north. This pattern will yield a cold north northeast flow across the area. The exception will be for coastal NE FL, where the northeast flow will bringer milder air from the Atlantic. Skies will be clear, except for a few clouds in the onshore flow along NE FL coast. The pressure gradient will still be pretty significant Sunday night, keeping winds elevated and gusty through the night. Temperatures Sunday night will have a wide range, with lows over inland SE GA in the lower to mid 20s, and lower to mid 40s NE FL coast. With winds still elevated, Cold Weather Advisory headlines will be needed to highlight expected cold due to winds chills and impacts on people, while freeze warnings will be needed to highlight impact on plants. Too much wind for frost development Sunday night. On Monday, the high will build closer to the area. Weak troughing along the coastal waters will result in scattered cloud cover over eastern counties, with more sunshine further inland. The cold airmass will remain in place, with highs well below seasonal averages. For Monday night, the high will settle over southern GA, with weak troughing remaining over the coastal waters. Once again, a wide range in temperatures are expected due to the onshore flow. Lows in the middle 20s will be common over inland SE GA, to the middle 40s NE FL coast. In addition to the freezing temperatures, light winds will yield a greater Frost potential. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure ridge will become centered more toward the northeast Tuesday, then east Wednesday and Thursday. The high will away late week, as a cold front moves through. High pressure will build to the northeast following passage on Saturday. Other than the chance for a few showers inland SE GA ahead of the front Thursday night, this is expected to be a dry period. Above normal temperatures are forecast this period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... VFR conds with near calm and/or light and variable winds this evening, otherwise boundary layer cooling and increased low level moisture will lead to high chances of LIFR/IFR conds expected at VQQ/GNV in the 06-14Z time frame, while CRG/JAX/SGJ will remain on the edge of this fog/stratus development and have just trended close to MVFR conds in the 08-12Z time frame with SSI likely remaining fog free tonight. Arctic cold frontal passage expected in the 17-19Z time frame with increased NW winds to 15G25 knots along with lower VFR cloud decks around 4Kft, with some lower potential for MVFR CIGS but have just kept as SCT025 in the terminal forecasts for now. Clearing skies and winds shifting to the N-NW right at the end of the current 00Z TAF period and have showed this clearing at the 22- 23Z time frame at the terminals. && .MARINE... Fair maritime conditions continue through Sunday afternoon before a strong, arctic cold front pushes through the waters Sunday, bringing gales and moderately high seas, especially offshore, during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. North-northwesterly winds nearing gale force developing through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday with frequent gusts up to 40 knots. For this a Gale Watch has been issued across all the waters Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Winds should decrease to Small Craft Advisory levels late Monday morning and continue to as high pressure slides in from the north. Seas will lower Monday night with the diminishing winds with generally fair maritime conditions through Thursday as a weaker front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Sunday NE FL Moderate Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY... CRITICALLY LOW RH LEVELS INLAND SE GA MONDAY... PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A cold front will move southeast across the area Tonight into Sunday morning. Strong high pressure will build behind this boundary. Elevated and gusty winds expected from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature then through Thursday night. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday, followed by high pressure ridging Saturday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog Tonight, with greatest coverage south of Gainesville. Widespread Frost SE GA, and inland NE FL Monday night. Areas of frost inland SE GA Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 47 63 24 44 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 53 67 32 47 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 49 72 33 50 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 53 74 43 57 / 0 10 0 10 GNV 50 75 35 55 / 0 10 0 0 OCF 51 76 39 57 / 10 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236- 322-422-425-522. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254399 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 531 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of tomorrow`s cold front - Dense fog expected again tonight into tomorrow morning - Low chance for rain over land associated with tomorrow`s cold front && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Dense fog will likely be an issue again tonight into tomorrow morning ahead of the front. As the front arrives expect gusty conditions will cooler temperatures in its wake. Lows are expected to drop into the 30s across much of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Some lows in our northern portions of the region especially drainage areas and up near Victoria could approach freezing. It`s worth keeping an eye on as HREF probabilities has a low to medium chance (20-45%) for temperatures below 33 degrees. Otherwise, along and ahead of the front a low to chance will exist for showers and thunderstorms though best chances will be over the waters. The rest of the period will consist of persisting dry conditions with a warming trend dominating the remainder of the week. Highs look to be in the upper 80s across much of the region by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening before MVFR conditions move in after 06z with the wind shift associated with the approaching cold front. There is a low to medium chance for IFR/LIFR ceilings to develop between 07-11z. Once the stronger winds in the wake of the cold front kick in after 11-12z ceilings should gradually improve. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A gentle southeast flow is expected to continue through tonight before our next cold front swings through and shifts winds to the northeast and strengthening to a strong to near gale (BF 6-7) Sunday morning. Winds will remain elevated through Sunday night before weakening to a moderate breeze by Monday afternoon. Due to the elevated winds a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all of the waters through Sunday night. A Gale Watch was issued as well for the Gulf waters out 20-60 NM. Medium (40-70%) rain chances are expected today through Sunday in association with the cold front as it approaches and swings through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 60 65 42 58 / 20 20 0 0 Victoria 54 60 35 57 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 61 67 44 62 / 0 40 10 0 Alice 58 66 41 60 / 20 20 0 0 Rockport 58 65 41 58 / 20 10 0 0 Cotulla 57 63 41 59 / 10 20 0 0 Kingsville 60 67 43 61 / 10 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 66 46 59 / 20 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ270-275. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
| #1254398 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 635 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A fast-moving low pressure will bring accumulating snow overnight into Sunday morning, especially south of the Mass Pike. Ocean effect snow showers will linger into Sunday afternoon towards the Cape and Islands. A brief shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below zero. It remains cold Tuesday, but a pattern change with a significant warming trend is likely Wednesday into Thursday. The milder conditions will likely be accompanied by a period of gusty winds and showers sometime in the late Thursday into Friday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow very late tonight-Sun morning, especially south of I-90. Highest accumulations near the south coast. * Advisory level snowfall expected across much of southeast MA and southern RI. The latest guidance suite continued to narrow the focus on some of the critical details for this portion of the forecast. That said, some uncertainty remains. For example, at what temperature does the snow start accumulating on untreated paved surfaces? Even a 1F degree change could expand the accumulating snow window by a few hours. That could make a big difference in impacts across our region. The main concern is with the majority of the snowfall occurring at night, accumulations are a little more likely to occur than at the same temperature during the daytime. Some of the higher resolution guidance with his last suite exhibited a notable uptick in banding within the dendritic growth zone. Have some confidence the heaviest snowfall will be towards the south coast of MA and RI, but still do not know with certainty exactly where the heaviest band will finally set up. Based on this subtle shift farther north and slightly better dynamics, the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded into northern Bristol as well as Eastern and Northern Plymouth Counties in MA. Still kept the goal posts wide with respect to the timing. Thinking that most areas away from the Cape and islands will likely be able to have the advisory cancelled earlier than the 7 PM timing. Steadiest snow will quickly end from west to east through mid morning Sunday. Expecting ocean effect snow showers to linger across the outer Cape Sunday afternoon and night as arctic air pours into our region on NNW-NW flow. Ocean induced CAPE values expected to increase to 500-600 J/kg. An additional 1-2" is possible on the outer Cape, but boundary layer temperature profiles may be a bit warm for additional accumulations during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Very cold with wind chill values near or below zero The coldest airmass of the season thus far will move in behind the snow for Monday night as 850mb temps crash into the -15C to -20C range. This will result in overnight low temperatures bottoming out in the single digits across the interior, to the low teens near the coastal plain. A strong pressure gradient will result in gusty winds overnight, around 20-30mph. This will bring the windchill index/feels-like temperatures down to the 0F to -5F range, with -5F to -15F in the high terrain. Cold weather advisories may be needed in the northern Berkshires for Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * Remaining Cold Monday and Tuesday. Light snow showers are possible Monday night * Rapid warming trend Wednesday through Friday * Late week system looks to bring rain and gusty winds to the region. The Arctic air mass remains in place through Tuesday as GFS and Euro ensembles keep temperature anomalies near 10 degrees colder than normal. While it wont be as cold as Monday morning, high temps will remain in the 20s for Monday, and struggle to top freezing on Tuesday. Tuesday morning lows drop into the teens across the region, but with calm winds, the wind chill index also remains in the teens. A weak shortwave passes through the region Monday night and could bring some light snow showers to the region. With a lack of strong forcing and marginal moisture, QPF will be light, on the order of a trace to 0.05 inches. Any snow that falls will also be light, under a half inch. An upper-level ridge originating from milder maritime air over the Pacific Ocean will reach the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb temps rising to +2C. Surface high temps on Wednesday jump into the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s to low 50s possible for Thursday and Friday. Guidance has been relatively consistent in showing a strong shortwave trough dropping out of the Great Lakes on Friday. Temps by Friday will be warm enough to keep precipitation as all rain. Given the strong WAA, there could be some gusty winds associated with this system on Friday, but it is far too early to speculate on potential wind impacts at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions dominate during the first half of this evening. MVFR-IFR conditions in light snow arrives in the 14/03z to 14/07z time frame. Expecting mainly snow, but a few hours of rain or mixed rain/snow are possible near the Cape and Islands. Steadiest snow south of I-90, and especially towards the south coast where brief LIFR conditions are possible in snow. Sunday... Moderate Confidence Snow expected to linger a few hours longer than the last update. Expecting snow to end between 15/16z and 16/18z from northwest to southeast, but lingers to around 21z towards the southeast New England coast. Otherwise, improvement to VFR conditions expected. Light SW winds tonight shift to the NW at 5 to 10 kt Sunday. Could become gusty towards the Sunday evening push. Sunday night...High Confidence. VFR outside the the outer-Cape/Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers may persist Sunday evening. This activity should dissipate though after midnight. Otherwise, NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop Sunday night. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Snow likely develops after 06z, with the bulk of it ending before lunchtime Sunday. Total snow accumulations of 1-2" possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Snow develops after 14/03z and ends by mid-late Sunday morning. Total snow accumulations of 1-3" possible. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday Night...High confidence. Gusty SW winds into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread rain/snow moves across the waters late tonight and Sunday morning. Gale Watch Sunday night into Monday as colder air moving over the waters will result in excellent mixing conditions. Areas of very light freezing spray likely Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Areas of freezing spray likely. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ017>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for RIZ003>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254397 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 615 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A powerful arctic cold front will blast through the Carolinas on Sunday. High pressure following the front will bring very cold temperatures Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with another mainly dry cold frontal passage expected Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High and dry this afternoon as temperatures have soared into the middle to upper 60s along the coast with slightly cooler albeit still pleasant readings inland. Long advertised arctic front now located off to the north and west (as seen by numerous satellite images) will move across quickly Sunday mid morning. A quick area of showers with the boundary remains reasonable with high/short lived pops. Highs in the lower 50s Sunday will be realized early then falling rapidly into the 40s by mid to late afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... *KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: Dangerous cold Sun night into Mon AM *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Well Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: Arctic high pressure will bring near record cold temperatures and gusty winds causing dangerous wind chills around 5- 10 degrees Sun night into early Mon morning. We have maintained the Extreme Cold Watch for now given some lingering uncertainty regarding how low wind chills will get but confidence is high that at the very least we will reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria (6-15 degrees) for all areas. Also something to note as a very low but non- zero probability, black ice may develop on roads Sun eve as temps quickly fall below freezing (especially inland). Fortunately, the lack of significant rainfall and rapid drying/breezy conditions for several hours Sun afternoon should prevent much ice from developing. Not much warming expected Mon as highs struggle to reach 40 degrees. Another very cold night is on tap Mon night as the high moves more overhead leading to better radiational cooling conditions. Thus, we leaned toward the lower end of model guidance for lows (~20 inland to ~30 at the immediate coast), although with much less wind the wind chills should mostly stay above our Cold Weather Advisory criteria (15 degrees). Dry weather with below normal temps will then continue through Tue night as high pressure maintains control. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... *KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: Low to Mod Thu thru Fri w/ best chances Thu night *Temps: Near to above normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: The arctic air mass over the area will continue to modify as it slides offshore late week ahead of a cold frontal passage late Thu night/early Fri. Moisture/forcing appear limited with this feature so only carrying low to moderate rain chances with not much accumulation anticipated. Temps will fall back closer to normal late week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low level wind shear should develop by 03z for all local airports except perhaps CRE and MYR. This is due to a southwesterly low level jet developing ahead of an approaching arctic cold front. As the front arrives Sunday morning, MVFR clouds will develop along with a few hours of shallow convective showers. Some of the high-res models show visibility dipping to 2-3 miles within these showers, but only very briefly. As the front passes through between 13-16z, winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 15 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots anticipated to continue through the afternoon hours. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Gale warnings have been posted for all waters beginning late Sunday via strong sustained winds and moreso gusts associated with the arctic front currently in the Missouri Valley. While some small craft advisory conditions may be observed prior to this onset (Sunday morning) they should be brief as the main system is not wasting any time. Favorable marine conditions this afternoon and into the early evening before all of this ockers however. Sunday night through Thursday...Moderate to high confidence this period. Hazardous marine conditions expected into early Mon due to strong cold advection behind a passing arctic front with gale force gusts up to around 40 kt a good bet thru Sun night. Conditions will improve pretty quickly Mon as high pressure moves more overhead and the pressure gradient/cold advection slacken. High pressure will then maintain control as it slowly shifts offshore with no additional marine concerns expected thru mid week. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254396 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 606 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will spread from south to north tonight and early Sunday, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible. - High risk of rip currents through late tonight for all Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Very tricky rainfall forecast for tonight into Sunday across South FL. Low level moisture is expected to increase this evening as the flow becomes more E/SE and a weak low in the SE Gulf eventually moves over the far southern peninsula early Sunday, riding along a weak frontal boundary that will slowly lift north across Southern FL. At the upper levels, there is a deep trough that will dig through the eastern US with the trough axis expected to move across FL sometime late Sunday night. This will also help push a cold front through the area overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Given the weak surface features involved, not a surprise that the hi- res guidance is all over the place regarding rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours. 25th percentile amounts are generally a couple tenths of an inch, where the 90th percentile precip amounts show pockets of 1-3 inches across the east coast metro. HREF PWAT values peak at 1.5-1.8 inches, with the highest PWAT values centered over far SE FL. Given the high end potential if all the ingredients come together, WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain across the east coast metro which is reasonable given that if the higher end numbers occur, there would be a limited urban flood threat across typical poor drainage locations. Bulk of the showers and thunderstorms should be tonight and into early Sunday across South FL, with diminishing PoPs as the day progresses on Sunday with the weak low moving off to the east. Residual low level moisture will keep a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Sunday until the cold front arrives late Sunday night. Temperatures this weekend will be slightly above normal with highs in the lower 80s. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to upper 60s across the east coast metro. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light ESE winds 5-10 kts tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight into early Sunday morning. Winds becoming WNW 10-15 kts Sunday morning through the remainder of the period. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings expected overnight, with some IFR ceilings possible over APF early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form. && .BEACHES... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 81 65 74 / 70 50 20 20 West Kendall 65 81 62 75 / 70 40 10 20 Opa-Locka 67 81 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 Homestead 67 81 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 80 66 73 / 70 50 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 68 80 66 72 / 70 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 67 81 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 West Palm Beach 67 81 65 72 / 60 50 20 20 Boca Raton 68 81 66 74 / 70 50 30 20 Naples 67 79 59 75 / 50 40 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254395 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 316 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area Sunday night into Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect over this time period. - Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected Sunday into Monday after a strong cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are now in effect for this time period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 No significant changes in the overall forecast from before as the model guidance remains in very good agreement on the timing of a strong cold front that will pass through the region late tonight and tomorrow morning. A rapidly deepening northern stream trough will quickly descend into the eastern third of the CONUS tonight into tomorrow. As this trough deepens, the arctic airmass over the northern Plains will begin to sweep southward along the Mississippi Valley in the form of a fast moving frontal boundary. Before the arctic airmass intrudes into the region, a very unseasonably moist and warm airmass will be over the area this evening into the late overnight hours with temperatures still sitting in the 50s and even lower 60s through late evening. Some moisture pooling will occur in advance of the front in the late evening and early overnight hours, and this will allow PWATS to climb to near the 90th percentile for this time of year. However, the moisture will be shallow, residing below 700mb. The shallow nature of the moisture and a lack of mid-level instability will keep any pre-frontal convective activity at bay. However, this warm and moist airmass will be easily lifted over the shallow cold pool to produce a period of post-frontal stratiform light to moderate rainfall late tonight into early Sunday morning. Rainfall totals should remain below a quarter of an inch. The rain will quickly come to an end by mid-morning tomorrow as the drier and colder arctic airmass moves in from the north. In fact, skies should be clear by the mid-afternoon hours based on the depth and strength of the arctic airmass moving in. Although the main brunt of the colder air will remain well displaced to the north and east of the forecast area, we will still experience the coldest air we have seen this season with lows falling into the 20s and lower 30s Sunday night into Monday and highs only warming into the mid to upper 40s on Monday. For areas north of I-10/12, a hard freeze and a threat to pipes will exist tomorrow night as temperatures will remain below 25 degrees for several hours. In addition to the cold air temperatures, dangerous wind chills will take place tomorrow night across the region as gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph persist through the night. Wind chill values will fall into the teens along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the low to mid 20s further south. These wind chill values are low enough to prompt the issuance of a cold weather advisory for the entire area. The thermal trough axis associated with the deep layer cold pool over the eastern third of the country will start to shift to the east Monday night, but that will not mean a return to milder conditions. After a chilly and sunny Monday with highs struggling to reach the mid to upper 40s per the latest 925mb temperature profiles, lows will easily fall back into the upper 20s and lower 30s for most of the region Monday night. Only the immediate coast of Louisiana and areas along the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain remaining in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A return to a much warmer and more humid airmass will quickly happen as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. On Tuesday, the trough over the eastern CONUS will fully depart and a shortwave upper level ridge axis will slide in from the west. In the low to mid-levels, a broad high will also slide to the east. This will allow for a deep layer onshore flow pattern to develop, and PWATS will gradually climb back to more average levels for this time of year by Wednesday. A weak southern stream vort max will slip through on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited mid and upper level moisture over the area will keep any shower activity isolated to widely scattered even as PWATS rise to over 1.2 inches. Once this system passes by, a zonal flow regime will develop over the area for Friday. A weak front will slightly cool temperatures, but only by a few degrees from the mid 70s on Thursday into the upper 60s on Friday. These temperatures are still well above average for mid-December. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Fob probabilities are higher than average generally between 00z and 09z at GPT, ASD, NEW, MSY, and HUM as warm and humid air advects over the cooler nearshore waters this evening. The fog will persist until increased forcing along a fast moving front occurs after 09z. The forecast calls for an extended period of IFR and LIFR visibility and ceiling restrictions at these terminals. At the remainder of the terminals, post-frontal low stratus and rain will lead to additional IFR conditions, generally between 06z and 14z. These IFR conditions will also impact GPT, ASD, NEW, MSY, and HUM, as the fog lifts into a stratiform cloud deck with light to moderate rainfall from 09z to 16z. After 16z, fast improvement into MVFR and VFR conditions will occur as a drier airmass moves in from the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore flow and a warm and humid airmass moving across the cooler waters of the sounds and tidal lakes could support some fog development this evening into the early overnight hours. However, this fog will quickly clear later tonight as a front moves through all of the waters. A rapid change in conditions will take place tomorrow morning as a very strong cold front moves through. Winds will turn northerly and increase in speed to between 25 and 30 knots with higher gusts from mid to late morning tomorrow through Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect for the waters over this time period. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will see a slight increase in the onshore flow to 10 to 15 knots as the pressure gradient over the waters tightens in response to a passing shortwave feature, but no impacts to mariners are expected once we get past Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 41 47 21 48 / 70 10 0 0 BTR 46 52 24 49 / 60 20 0 0 ASD 47 57 22 49 / 40 30 0 0 MSY 52 59 32 47 / 30 30 0 0 GPT 48 57 26 49 / 40 30 0 0 PQL 47 57 22 49 / 40 30 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557. Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572- 575-577. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557. Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ572-575- 577. && $$ |
| #1254394 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 240 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the the Mid Atlantic late tonight night into Sunday, with accumulating snow possible Sunday, especially on the Eastern Shore. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... - A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions on Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Lower MD Eastern Shore for the potential for 1-2" of snow. - A brief period of light snow could amount to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation as far south as Richmond-Williamsburg. Transient sfc high pressure has shifted offshore with weak SSW flow ahead of an approaching Arctic cold front (which is still over the Appalachians). A deep trough is located over the Great Lakes and Ontario, with a shortwave tracking over the Midwest at the base of the trough. It is milder than it has been with temps in the mid 40s- lower 50s this afternoon. The Arctic cold front approaches the area tonight and crosses the area from late tonight into Sunday AM. The trough over the Great Lakes amplifies as it dives SE while the shortwave tracks across the Mid-Atlantic. The best forcing for ascent will miss us to our north. However, precipitation will enter far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. Precip will likely last a few hours over the northern neck and eastern shore. While likely PoPs extend to the RIC Metro, precip will last 2 hours at most across the SW 2/3 of the area (including the RIC Metro and Hampton Roads). The most likely timing for precip is from 4-10 AM across the northern neck/eastern shore, 6-10 AM in the RIC Metro, and 8 AM-1 PM in SE VA/NE NC. With the Arctic FROPA, precip may very briefly begin as rain but will quickly change to snow in most areas outside of far SE VA/NE NC. Still think that at least 0.1" is likely along and NE of a Richmond- Williamsburg line, with 0.5-1" expected across the northern neck, and 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore. Could see a dusting in Hampton Roads if the changeover occurs in time. The coldest air won`t arrive until Sun aftn/evening, so temps will only drop to 31-33F when the snow is falling. Therefore, accums will mainly be on grassy surfaces except on the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps the northern neck where snowfall rates may briefly reach 0.75"/hour. Have expended the Winter Wx Advisory to include all MD Eastern Shore counties. If snow lasts longer than expected, a "reasonable worst case" would be up to 3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday and peak in the afternoon as the strongest CAA arrives. Gusts up to 35 mph are likely inland, with 45 mph gusts expected at the immediate Atlantic coast. With this in mind, have issued Wind Advisories for the VA Eastern Shore, VA Beach, and Eastern Currituck starting Sun aftn and continuing through Sun night. Highs range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid- afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night with a slow moderating trend beginning on Tuesday. Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday night, there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the entire area for consistent messaging, even though the lower 5F criteria may not be reached in all central VA/VA Piedmont zones as winds diminish Sun night. The only other thing to watch for is the potential for some light bay effect snow showers in Accomack/Northampton Counties with the cold NW flow. The ECMWF and the vast majority of its ensemble members continue to forecast 0.02- 0.04" of QPF over a decent portion of the VA Eastern Shore Sun night, while the other models (including the RGEM and CAMs which normally pick up on this type of thing) have no QPF with the LLVL flow a little bit more westerly. This is still low confidence but have added slight chc for snow showers to these zones to account for the possibility. The Arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday night with lows in the low to mid 20s. A moderating trend begins on Tue as the high slides to our SE. Forecast highs are mainly in the upper 30s-mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Much warmer temperatures (compared to the first half of December) are on the way for the middle and end of the week. - Another (weaker) cold front brings another chance for light rain Thursday night. December 2025 has been one of the chilliest on record for many of our climate sites. However, quite the change is on the way for the extended period, with a pronounced warming trend continuing into the midweek period and likely peaking Thursday. The synoptic pattern will be characterized by rather progressive, quasi-zonal flow and building heights/thicknesses Tuesday night through Thursday. At the surface, transient high pressure is expected to remain offshore to our SE. All of this favors milder temps with high temperatures in the mid 50s by Wednesday. A warm front then lifts northward Thursday in advance of another cold front. There is some uncertainty regarding the exact progression of the warm front which will determine how warm temps get. For example, some guidance pushes the warm front through earlier Thursday. This would allow for mild temps areawide Thursday. On the other hand, another possible solution has the warm front lifting north in the evening and overnight Thursday. This would favor cooler temps Thursday, especially across the N. Regardless, it will likely be very mild (for December`s standards) later Thursday and especially early Thursday night. The cold front crosses the region Thursday night, bringing another chance for precip. At this time, QPF looks inconsequential (ensemble means are around a 0.25" or less). High pressure builds back in from the W Friday, settling over the area Saturday. While it likely temporarily trends cooler for the weekend, there are no signs of any additional significant cold air outbreaks. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for most of the 18z/13 TAF period. High clouds and SW winds of ~10 kt are expected through most of tonight ahead of an Arctic cold front. That front crosses the terminals from late tonight into Sunday morning (09-15z). A few hours of precipitation will likely accompany the front. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in -SN at RIC). A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. In addition to the precip, CIGs likely drop to MVFR behind the front, with a couple hours worth of IFR CIGs possible before dry/VFR conditions return Sunday afternoon (w/ NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt). VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Winds remain gusty near the coast Sunday night before diminishing on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday morning, with Gale conditions expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night. - Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday. A strong cold front is located NW of the region this afternoon, with high pressure now centered well offshore. In between these features, a weak warm front has shifted the winds to the S-SW. Regardless, marine conditions are generally benign with wind speeds 15 kt or less (highest northern coastal waters). Any elevated southerly flow diminishes across the N this evening into tonight, with SW winds 5- 10 kt for most of the night. Then, the strong front (of Arctic origin) drops southward through the waters after 09z/4 AM. In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft (850 mb temps as low as -20 C) mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters, creating very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning- early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon-evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday (7 PM Sun to 1 AM Mon); sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Given the extreme airmass change, would not be surprised if brief storm-force wind gusts were realized, especially at the elevated observation sites. Gale Warnings are in effect for all zones starting early Sunday morning.Winds should fall below Gale thresholds everywhere by sunrise Monday morning, and then below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. In addition to the wind, seas build to 6 to 10 feet by Sunday night, though the slight offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday night due to the strong winds and cold air temperatures. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should keep any freezing spray light. Thus, will keep mention of this out of the text forecast for now. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630- 631. Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ632- 634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254393 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 243 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of dense fog are forecast for portions of ECFL late tonight into early Sunday morning. The greatest potential for areas of fog will be along and north of the I-4 corridor. - The next cold front will push through Sunday evening/night but will come through mostly dry. Scattered showers and a storm or two will affect Treasure coast/Okeechobee during the day on Sunday. Noticeably cooler on Monday behind the cold front. - Breezy to windy conditions developing Sunday night through Monday as north to northeast winds increase across the area. These winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions early next week, with beach erosion possible. A Small Craft Advisory and Gale Watch have been issued starting at 4 pm on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure system over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region today. Surface high pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will continue to build southeast across the Deep South as high pressure across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula. Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain chances. Dry air will continue to filter across the area, with forecast PW values around 0.7-1.0" today. Northeast to east winds this morning will veer east to southeast this afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph. Guidance is showing patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Sunday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly from Melbourne to Lake Okeechobee northward and westward, with areas of fog generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s across the far north to mid 60s across the far south on tonight. Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county. The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 10-15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A High Surf advisory may be needed. Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Friday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. The next cold front is forecast to approach Friday, first dropping into north Florida before reaching the far north part of the CWA Friday night/early Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday and Friday, with isolated showers forecast along the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast both days. The frontal passage Friday night looks to be mostly dry, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today. East to southeast winds around 10 KT on today will veer northwest and increase to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas 1-3ft today will increase to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through today, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms on Sunday. Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20- 30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Volusia waters starting at 21Z on Sunday and going through 12Z Monday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Brevard waters for 21Z Sunday, expanding to the Treasure Coast waters starting at 03Z Monday and replacing the Gale Watch across the Volusia waters starting 12Z on Monday. The SCA will likely need to be extended in time for the Gulf Stream waters. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday before veering E/NE Tuesday at 10- 15 KT, and E/SE on Wednesday. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream before decreasing to 3-4ft on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR to continue thru at least 03z Sun. ESE winds 5-10 kt (with occasional gusts 15-20 kt VRB-SUA) become light/variable tonight. Low-mid cloud cover increases south to north after 03z Sun., particularly for VRB/FPR/SUA but could drift as far north as MLB/ISM. SHRA/TSRA are possible after 04z-06z for Treasure Coast terminals with MVFR conds at times. Additionally, BR/FG is anticipated at northern terminals (esp. DAB/SFB/LEE). Some development cannot be ruled out at MCO/ISM, though cloud cover may hinder greater coverage of FG. Conds should return to mostly VFR after 14z Sun., outside of lingering clouds (perhaps VCSH) south. NW winds increase after 17z to 8-12 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 57 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 60 78 53 64 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 62 78 57 67 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 61 79 59 69 / 30 30 10 10 LEE 57 77 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 58 78 50 63 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 60 78 50 63 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 61 79 59 69 / 40 30 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254392 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 137 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of tomorrow`s cold front - Dense fog expected again tonight into tomorrow morning - Low chance for rain over land associated with tomorrow`s cold front && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Dense fog will likely be an issue again tonight into tomorrow morning ahead of the front. As the front arrives expect gusty conditions will cooler temperatures in its wake. Lows are expected to drop into the 30s across much of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Some lows in our northern portions of the region especially drainage areas and up near Victoria could approach freezing. It`s worth keeping an eye on as HREF probabilities has a low to medium chance (20-45%) for temperatures below 33 degrees. Otherwise, along and ahead of the front a low to chance will exist for showers and thunderstorms though best chances will be over the waters. The rest of the period will consist of persisting dry conditions with a warming trend dominating the remainder of the week. Highs look to be in the upper 80s across much of the region by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Some IFR conditions are still lingering out west, though all sites are expected to eventually reach VFR within the next couple of hours. Another dense fog and low ceiling episode is likely again tonight aheaad of the front. This will lead to IFR to LIFR conditions across much of the region once again, and clearing out by 15/16Z as the front arrives. Conditions should begin the transition to VFR there after with winds increasing around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A gentle southeast flow is expected to continue through tonight before our next cold front swings through and shifts winds to the northeast and strengthening to a strong to near gale (BF 6-7) Sunday morning. Winds will remain elevated through Sunday night before weakening to a moderate breeze by Monday afternoon. Due to the elevated winds a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all of the waters through Sunday night. A Gale Watch was issued as well for the Gulf waters out 20-60 NM. Medium (40-70%) rain chances are expected today through Sunday in association with the cold front as it approaches and swings through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 60 65 42 58 / 20 20 0 0 Victoria 54 60 35 57 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 61 67 44 62 / 0 40 10 0 Alice 58 66 41 60 / 20 20 0 0 Rockport 58 65 41 58 / 20 10 0 0 Cotulla 57 63 41 59 / 10 20 0 0 Kingsville 60 67 43 61 / 10 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 66 46 59 / 20 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ270-275. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
| #1254391 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 228 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A fast-moving low pressure will bring accumulating snow overnight into Sunday morning, especially south of the Mass Pike. Ocean effect snow showers will linger into Sunday afternoon towards the Cape and Islands. A brief shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday, with wind chill values dropping to between 0 to 10 below zero. It remains cold Tuesday, but a pattern change with a significant warming trend is likely Wednesday into Thursday. The milder conditions will likely be accompanied by a period of gusty winds and showers sometime in the late Thursday into Friday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow very late tonight-Sun morning, especially south of I-90. Highest accumulations near the south coast. * Advisory level snowfall expected across much of southeast MA and southern RI. The latest guidance suite continued to narrow the focus on some of the critical details for this portion of the forecast. That said, some uncertainty remains. For example, at what temperature does the snow start accumulating on untreated paved surfaces? Even a 1F degree change could expand the accumulating snow window by a few hours. That could make a big difference in impacts across our region. The main concern is with the majority of the snowfall occurring at night, accumulations are a little more likely to occur than at the same temperature during the daytime. Some of the higher resolution guidance with his last suite exhibited a notable uptick in banding within the dendritic growth zone. Have some confidence the heaviest snowfall will be towards the south coast of MA and RI, but still do not know with certainty exactly where the heaviest band will finally set up. Based on this subtle shift farther north and slightly better dynamics, the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded into northern Bristol as well as Eastern and Northern Plymouth Counties in MA. Still kept the goal posts wide with respect to the timing. Thinking that most areas away from the Cape and islands will likely be able to have the advisory cancelled earlier than the 7 PM timing. Steadiest snow will quickly end from west to east through mid morning Sunday. Expecting ocean effect snow showers to linger across the outer Cape Sunday afternoon and night as arctic air pours into our region on NNW-NW flow. Ocean induced CAPE values expected to increase to 500-600 J/kg. An additional 1-2" is possible on the outer Cape, but boundary layer temperature profiles may be a bit warm for additional accumulations during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Very cold with wind chill values near or below zero The coldest airmass of the season thus far will move in behind the snow for Monday night as 850mb temps crash into the -15C to -20C range. This will result in overnight low temperatures bottoming out in the single digits across the interior, to the low teens near the coastal plain. A strong pressure gradient will result in gusty winds overnight, around 20-30mph. This will bring the windchill index/feels-like temperatures down to the 0F to -5F range, with -5F to -15F in the high terrain. Cold weather advisories may be needed in the northern Berkshires for Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * Remaining Cold Monday and Tuesday. Light snow showers are possible Monday night * Rapid warming trend Wednesday through Friday * Late week system looks to bring rain and gusty winds to the region. The Arctic air mass remains in place through Tuesday as GFS and Euro ensembles keep temperature anomalies near 10 degrees colder than normal. While it wont be as cold as Monday morning, high temps will remain in the 20s for Monday, and struggle to top freezing on Tuesday. Tuesday morning lows drop into the teens across the region, but with calm winds, the wind chill index also remains in the teens. A weak shortwave passes through the region Monday night and could bring some light snow showers to the region. With a lack of strong forcing and marginal moisture, QPF will be light, on the order of a trace to 0.05 inches. Any snow that falls will also be light, under a half inch. An upper-level ridge originating from milder maritime air over the Pacific Ocean will reach the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb temps rising to +2C. Surface high temps on Wednesday jump into the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s to low 50s possible for Thursday and Friday. Guidance has been relatively consistent in showing a strong shortwave trough dropping out of the Great Lakes on Friday. Temps by Friday will be warm enough to keep precipitation as all rain. Given the strong WAA, there could be some gusty winds associated with this system on Friday, but it is far too early to speculate on potential wind impacts at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight and Sunday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions dominate during the first half of this evening. MVFR-IFR conditions in light snow arrives in the 14/03z to 14/07z time frame. Expecting mainly snow, but a few hours of rain or mixed rain/snow are possible near the Cape and Islands. Steadiest snow south of I-90, and especially towards the south coast where brief LIFR conditions are possible in snow. Snow winds down between 14/12z and 14/16z from northwest to southeast, but lingers into the afternoon towards the southeast New England coast. Otherwise, improvement to VFR conditions expected. Light SW winds tonight shift to the NW at 5 to 10 kt Sunday. Could become gusty towards the Sunday evening push. Sunday night...High Confidence. VFR outside the the outer-Cape/Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers may persist Sunday evening. This activity should dissipate though after midnight. Otherwise, NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots across the high terrain and near the coast develop Sunday night. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Snow likely develops after 06z, with the bulk of it ending before lunchtime Sunday. Total snow accumulations of 1-2" possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Snow develops after 14/03z and ends by mid-late Sunday morning. Total snow accumulations of 1-3" possible. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday Night...High confidence. Gusty SW winds into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread rain/snow moves across the waters late tonight and Sunday morning. Gale Watch Sunday night into Monday as colder air moving over the waters will result in excellent mixing conditions. Areas of very light freezing spray likely Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Areas of freezing spray likely. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ017>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for RIZ003>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254390 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mild conditions today and tonight ahead of an arctic cold frontal passage Sunday morning. High pressure will then return with very cold temperatures Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up toward mid week with another mainly dry cold frontal passage Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High and dry this afternoon as temperatures have soared into the middle to upper 60s along the coast with slightly cooler albeit still pleasant readings inland. Long advertised arctic front now located off to the north and west (as seen by numerous satellite images) will move across quickly Sunday mid morning. A quick area of showers with the boundary remains reasonable with high/short lived pops. Highs in the lower 50s Sunday will be realized early then falling rapidly into the 40s by mid to late afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... *KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: Dangerous cold Sun night into Mon AM *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Well Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: Arctic high pressure will bring near record cold temperatures and gusty winds causing dangerous wind chills around 5- 10 degrees Sun night into early Mon morning. We have maintained the Extreme Cold Watch for now given some lingering uncertainty regarding how low wind chills will get but confidence is high that at the very least we will reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria (6-15 degrees) for all areas. Also something to note as a very low but non- zero probability, black ice may develop on roads Sun eve as temps quickly fall below freezing (especially inland). Fortunately, the lack of significant rainfall and rapid drying/breezy conditions for several hours Sun afternoon should prevent much ice from developing. Not much warming expected Mon as highs struggle to reach 40 degrees. Another very cold night is on tap Mon night as the high moves more overhead leading to better radiational cooling conditions. Thus, we leaned toward the lower end of model guidance for lows (~20 inland to ~30 at the immediate coast), although with much less wind the wind chills should mostly stay above our Cold Weather Advisory criteria (15 degrees). Dry weather with below normal temps will then continue through Tue night as high pressure maintains control. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... *KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: Low to Mod Thu thru Fri w/ best chances Thu night *Temps: Near to above normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: The arctic air mass over the area will continue to modify as it slides offshore late week ahead of a cold frontal passage late Thu night/early Fri. Moisture/forcing appear limited with this feature so only carrying low to moderate rain chances with not much accumulation anticipated. Temps will fall back closer to normal late week. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. There is an outside chance for brief MVFR ceilings with a narrow line of showers later tonight/early Sunday morning associated with the long advertised arctic front. Gusty northwest winds will be the story mid morning Sunday and beyond. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Gale warnings have been posted for all waters beginning late Sunday via strong sustained winds and moreso gusts associated with the arctic front currently in the Missouri Valley. While some small craft advisory conditions may be observed prior to this onset (Sunday morning) they should be brief as the main system is not wasting any time. Favorable marine conditions this afternoon and into the early evening before all of this ockers however. Sunday night through Thursday...Moderate to high confidence this period. Hazardous marine conditions expected into early Mon due to strong cold advection behind a passing arctic front with gale force gusts up to around 40 kt a good bet thru Sun night. Conditions will improve pretty quickly Mon as high pressure moves more overhead and the pressure gradient/cold advection slacken. High pressure will then maintain control as it slowly shifts offshore with no additional marine concerns expected thru mid week. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254389 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 212 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach ENC tonight before crossing the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1 PM Saturday...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the low-to-mid 60s as of early Saturday afternoon as heights rise aloft ahead of the strong cold front that will push through ENC tomorrow. Temperatures will cool to the low-to-mid 40s by around midnight tonight before rebounding to around 50 as dawn approaches amidst increasing southwesterly flow and WAA ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain chances begin to increase just before dawn across the western/northern portions of the forecast area as the front approaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday... Key Messages: - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon. - Gusty winds expected across ENC, especially along the Outer Banks where gusts to 35-45 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Hatteras Island and the NOBX from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is has been issued for all of ENC. An upper-level trough will dig into the mid-Atlantic region through the day on Sunday, with a strengthening 150 kt jet streak located downstream of this feature. DCVA coupled with forcing from the jet streak will yield strengthening low pressure offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, which will aid in driving a strong cold front through the region early Sunday. While moisture is somewhat limited, favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area, but rainfall totals are expected to be light (generally around a tenth of an inch or less). Chances begin to increase across the western and northern portions of the forecast area around dawn on Sunday before decreasing from west- to-east during the afternoon and early evening hours. Bulk of the precip will be rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain across the northern portions of the forecast area as precipitation comes to an end Sunday afternoon. No impacts or accumulation are expected, however. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of the approaching cold front through Sunday morning, but the pressure gradient will tighten sharply after the cold front passes as low pressure deepens offshore and an Arctic High builds in from the northwest. Northwesterly winds will be breezy behind this front, with gusts 25-35 mph possible across ENC. Winds will be strongest along Hatteras Island and the NOBX, with gusts of 35-45 mph forecast late Sunday and into Sunday night. Have issued a Wind Advisory for these areas given expected winds/gusts. Daytime highs will be reached across the forecast area by Sunday morning as the cold front pushes through ENC and moves offshore by noon, with cold air advection bringing falling temperatures through the afternoon. Temps fall into the 30s by Sunday evening before plummeting further into the upper-teens (low-20s OBX) Monday morning. Coupled with breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front, this will bring the coldest night of the season thus far, resulting in wind chill values of 5-15 F across ENC Monday morning. In response, have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of ENC from late Sunday evening through Monday morning. Will continue to monitor potential for an Extreme Cold Warning should lows trend colder over the coming forecast cycles. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 PM Saturday... Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning with winds abating through the day. Monday night will be cold once again, with temps in the low-20s (near 30 OBX). Unlike Sunday night, however, winds will remain light. As of now, this is expected to keep minimum apparent temperature values near but just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, with minimum wind chills in the 15-25 F range. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week (highs expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-20%) and Thursday night (30-50%) with another cold front approaching and moving through the region late Thursday night. Friday through Saturday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. This late week trough/frontal system are forecast to be weaker than tomorrow`s system. Thus, do not currently expect as substantial of a temperature drop behind the late-week cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1 PM Sat... Key Messages - VFR conditions expected through late tonight - MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon Clear skies and light winds will persist through the first half of tonight as high pressure remains in place ahead of a cold front. After midnight clouds will begin to increase from west to east, with ceilings developing and lowering to MVFR levels by 5-7 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1000-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing, but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon, however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am. Outlook: Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Monday. VFR conditions persist through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 2 PM Saturday... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sunday afternoon through Sunday night for northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front, with gusts of 30-40 kt expected Through this Evening...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through this evening as high pressure eases offshore. Current observations show southwesterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Tonight...Pressure gradient tightens tonight as cold front begins to approach from the northwest. In response, SCA conditions are expected to develop across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with southwesterly winds increasing to 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds will be a bit lighter across the northern coastal waters and sounds/inland rivers, with winds 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts (although, occasional gusts to 25 kts will be possible across the southern and eastern Pamlico Sound). Seas build to 4-6 ft south (2-4 ft north) of Oregon Inlet tonight. Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sunday morning with passage of arctic front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage and quickly build to Gales across most of the area waters. Have upgraded the rest of the Gale Watches to Gale Warnings as of this forecast cycle. SCA conditions remain for the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo Rivers; however, some guidance does indicate roughly a 30-50% chance of reaching Gale Force gusts across these waters. This will be monitored across future forecast cycles for any potential updates. Seas build through the day on Sunday before peaking at 6-10 ft across the coastal waters Sunday night. Monday...Winds die down quickly through the day on Monday, with gusts likely falling below SCA conditions late morning/early afternoon on Monday. Elevated seas will linger through much of the day, however, with 6+ ft seas lingering north of Cape Hatteras and along the Gulf Stream through Monday evening. Winds back to westerly Monday night, and gusts may flirt with SCA again across the Gulf Stream waters, especially south and east of Cape Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad southwesterly flow develops, with speeds in the 10-20 kt range expected. Gusts may again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft. Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254388 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong cold front passes through the region tonight. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected both ahead of the front (patchy fog) and behind the front (elevated winds and seas). - Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good portion of SE Tx late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze Watches have been posted for locations that haven`t seen their first freeze of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A smattering of light showers across the region today. Wouldn`t doubt if we see a few storms try and pop up later in the afternoon across the scntl parts of the CWA as some of the hires guidance trends suggest. Otherwise, the much anticipated cold front is expected to push through the area overnight and off the coast prior to sunrise Sunday. Scattered precipitation will end, as will any brief sea fog development, with the fronts passage. Much colder and breezy conditions will prevail in the wake of the front. Daytime highs on Sunday will likely be achieved during the nighttime or early morning hours, followed by falling/steady readings in the 50s/40s for the rest of the day. Continued cold Sunday night with freezing temperatures in the forecast for a good portion of the region (very roughly north of a High Island-Columbus line). This includes the Houston metro area where a light freeze is possible mainly outside the Beltway. Freeze Watches have been posted for the areas that haven`t seen their first freeze of the season. Madison, Walker, Houston, Trinity, and Polk Counties are almost certain to see a freeze too, but they`ve already experienced one this season...hence no Watch. High pressure will move to the east on Monday allowing southeast winds to resume late in the day...followed by warming trend thereafter. Temps will be back into the 60s at night and closer to 80 in the day Wed-Fri. Not out of the question that we`ll see some isolated-scattered showers Wed & Thurs with a weak mid-upper trough moving across. Most 12z deterministic guidance, with the exception of GFS, suggests the next weak front makes its way into, or close to the area Friday. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are being seen north of I-10 this morning with fog bringing visibility down to 1/2mi or less with CIGs below 500ft. Areas south of I-10 are MVFR to VFR with occasional periods of dense fog bringing conditions down to IFR. The fog should dissipate by the mid-morning with VFR conditions prevailing through this evening with south-southeasterly winds around 5-9kt. Isolated showers will be possible this morning with increasing coverage (and an isolated thunderstorm) expected this afternoon. A cold front will move through the region tonight, bringing another round of showers ahead of and along the front itself. Winds will become light/variable for a few hours ahead of the FROPA, which combined with the high moisture will lead to the redevelopment of dense fog returning late this evening into tonight. Once the front pushes through, winds will turn northerly but lingering fog and low CIGs (down to 500-700ft) will persist through Sunday morning. FROPA will occur at CLL around 5-7z, IAH between 8-10z, and then off the coast by 9-12z. Breezy north- northeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the afternoon on Sunday with gradually clearing skies. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore winds and low seas are expected going into the overnight hours. We may see some fog redevelopment later this evening ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into the bays between 3-6am. Fog will lift, and precipitation will taper off, with the frontal passage...but strong, gusty north and northeast winds and building seas will fill in behind the front. Gusts to near or above gale are likely...especially in the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters...and a Gale Watch for the waters beyond 20nm offshore. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. Though too early for specifics, we might need to keep an eye out for the potential for an extended sea fog event during the second half of the week...especially if we see a substantial water temp fall behind tonight`s front. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 48 52 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 57 33 54 / 50 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 53 60 38 54 / 40 30 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-227-300-313. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for GMZ370-375. && $$ |
| #1254387 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1242 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 * A cold front approaches tonight and passes early Sunday, with dense fog expected tonight, a low to medium chance of rain Sunday, and cooler temperatures into Tuesday morning. * Hazardous beach, surf, and marine conditions are expected Sunday into Monday. * Warmer than normal temperatures return mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A persistent trough of low pressure with a series of winter systems works through the Great Lakes and New England through next week. Closer to home, the next 500mb trough is now expected to drop from Baja Cali down the western coast of Mexico through the week. At the surface, expect a warm day today, with above normal temperatures, and a very humid and potentially foggy night as the next front heads south. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed, with current probabilities over 60 percent for visibilities to drop below one-half mile between 2 AM and 8 AM. Have leaned further into the NAM guidance, since it is generally the undisputed model for shallow cold air events, and we may need to nudge temperatures cooler yet for Sunday through Tuesday. Rain chances have trended drier once again, with an earlier arrival of the front, now Sunday morning taking some instability back out of the equation. A weak coastal trough sets up behind the front and continues light rain or drizzle along the coast through early Monday morning. Beach conditions are expected to deteriorate by Sunday afternoon, with a high risk of life-threatening rip currents, elevated surf, and narrow beaches during high tide Sunday evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through this evening, with dense fog and IFR to LIFR conditions becoming more likely overnight as a cold front approaches. The chance of showers along the frontal boundary increases early Sunday morning as ceilings begin to slowly improve toward the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Generally lighter onshore winds will maintain favorable marine conditions into late tonight. A strong cold front approaches Sunday morning, with showers and patchy dense fog late tonight. Northerly winds may gust occasionally to gale force, so will continue to monitor for an upgrade to Gale Warning if gale force wind gusts become more frequent, but have issued a Small Craft Advisory through Sunday night. Conditions begin to improve late Monday, with low to moderate southerly winds and seas through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 67 76 54 66 / 10 40 20 10 HARLINGEN 63 76 50 66 / 10 30 10 0 MCALLEN 67 76 51 66 / 0 40 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 75 50 65 / 0 50 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 58 65 / 10 50 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 75 55 64 / 10 40 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1254386 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1238 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night. Wind chills could drop to near 10 degrees. - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Our last warm day until next week is upon us as two upper troughs, the first over Canada dropping into the Great Lakes and a very weak southern stream trough over the northern Gulf, will move through the broader longwave pattern tonight into Sunday. To start, very subtle moisture advection continues as winds have become more southerly in advance of the first southern impulse. This has led to a gradual rise in temperatures and dewpoints now sneaking into the 60s along the coast. As this system approaches, dewpoints will likely top out later this afternoon mainly south of highway 84. Fog development has been iffy along the bay but as advection increases and dewpoints reach their peak this evening we will need to watch Mobile Bay and surrounding land areas for the development of sea fog. Current HREF and NBM probabilities hint at this possibly starting around 4 to 5 pm as temperatures cool but dewpoints increase. Confidence in how dense and if fog will be able to settle with slightly elevated near surface winds around 15 knots and cloud cover is currently keeping us from issuing any fog products. Radar this afternoon has shown some weak isentropic showers mainly north of highway 84. These will likely continue through the afternoon before increasing in coverage tonight as the upper troughs move in and ascent increases. By tonight into Sunday, both upper troughs will begin to move into the area which will lead to a rather drastic change as cold arctic air plunges into the deep south Sunday into Sunday night. Some scattered showers will be possible along the approaching cold front late tonight into early Sunday morning before the gates of the arctic open. Looking at NBM probabilities and we continue to support temperatures being the coldest of the year. Probabilities of air temperatures less than 20 degrees are floating around 50-70 percent mainly north of highway 84 and probabilities of less than 25 degrees above 80% almost to the immediate coastline. Given the current trends getting colder and colder with each run and the fact that guidance tends to struggle with these shallow arctic airmasses, we have went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entirety of the area. On top of the cold temperatures we will likely see gusty winds behind the front leading to wind chills in the teens all the way to the coast.With wind chills dropping to near 10 degrees inland and 12 to 15 degrees along the coast, we will have to closely monitor the potential for some extreme cold products. The criteria is for wind chills less than 15 along the coastal counties and wind chills less than 10 inland. Given the current forecast, extreme cold products would be most likely across the coastal areas where winds may stay elevated enough to result in meeting criteria. This may look a little funky but overall coastal areas are not acclimated to these cold of conditions (as a coastal resident I can confirm that it will be wayyy to cold and I dread it already) and thus the impacts of cold temperatures tend to occur before areas further inland that are more acclimated. This is the reasoning for the higher thresholds across the coastal county and why we may end up with extreme cold products for areas that are technically warmer than areas to the north. The good news is this cooldown is only temporary and things will quickly flip next week as the pattern flattens out and upper ridging begins to build over the eastern US. Expect a gradual warmup through next week as temperatures will rebound into the 70s by Thursday. Our next rain chances look to come well after next week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions prevail until around midnight with a mix of low and mid level clouds, with a few light showers popping up from time to time along and north of U.S. Highway 84. Very low ceilings and patchy to areas of fog will develop after midnight ahead a strong cold approaching from the north. Most ceilings will reach the LIFR to IFR criteria, with visibilities mostly reaching IFR to MVFR criteria. A line of showers will accompany the cold front, which is expected to reach the coast by daybreak Sunday, with northerly winds sustained around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the wake of the front. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. A Gale warning is now in effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 47 56 23 49 / 60 30 10 10 Pensacola 52 61 27 50 / 40 30 10 10 Destin 53 64 31 51 / 30 30 10 10 Evergreen 43 52 21 50 / 70 30 10 10 Waynesboro 39 47 19 48 / 90 20 10 10 Camden 39 47 19 48 / 80 20 10 10 Crestview 49 58 22 51 / 40 30 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1254385 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 131 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Another round of fog, especially across the Florida Big Bend into south-central Georgia, is expected tonight ahead of the cold front. - A Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze for temperatures at or below 25 degrees is in effect for our Alabama and Georgia counties Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Freeze Watch for temperatures below 32 degrees is in effect for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County Sunday night into Monday morning. - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning across the area for wind chills between 15 and 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia and 16 to 24 degrees for Florida. - Additional Cold Weather Products likely needed Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Cold front nears our area tonight and will push through during the day Sunday. A few showers are expected along the front, especially across Southeastern Alabama, later tonight into Sunday morning. Even if we do get rain, not a whole lot is expected with less than 0.10 inch forecast. Temperatures will be tricky across the region on Sunday. Our northern counties will likely experience the warmest temperatures in the morning with dropping temperatures throughout the day. Meanwhile, the fog may limit heating across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia before breaking just ahead of the front; how much we`ll be able to warm there before the Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the front remains uncertain. So, admittedly, there is lower confidence than normal for this temperature forecast. That said, we`re forecasting highs for Sunday near 60 across our northern Georgia and Alabama counties and the upper 60s to near 70 farther south before the front drops temperatures behind it. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Cold. That sums up the forecast to start the period. Strong CAA will be ongoing Sunday night with air temperatures dipping into the middle to upper 20s for most of the area away from the coast, where you`ll be closer to 30. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin county, where the Freeze (for temperatures between 26-32 degrees) program is ongoing. And there is a Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze (for temperatures at or below 25 degrees) for our Alabama and Georgia counties. Northerly to northeasterly breezes at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to near 20 mph, will create Cold Weather Advisory Wind Chills, or below 25 degrees in Florida and below 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia. Due to increased confidence and collaboration with neighbors, have gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of our area for Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be cold with highs struggling to get out of the 40s across the entire region. Another cold night is in store Monday night as the surface high settles nearly overhead and should allow for decent radiational cooling. Additional cold weather products, either Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze or Cold Weather Advisories, may be needed. A note about Monday night/Tuesday morning: subtle moisture increase around 900mb could throw a wrench into the forecast, especially for the eastern third of our area, or south and east of a line from near Tifton to Apalachicola in the form of some cloud cover. A warming trend commences Tuesday afternoon with highs back near 60 Tuesday and near 70 again Thursday and Friday. Low chances for rain return later next week as an H5 shortwave races over the region. However, moisture return appears meager at this time and have capped rain chances at 20 percent. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon but another round of IFR/LIFR cigs and visibilities are possible after 06z at all terminals, especially across Florida Big Bend terminals and into south-central Georgia ahead of a frontal system. The front should pass through the area beginning at ECP/DHN around 12z with northwesterly winds taking over quickly. The front should pass through ABY/TLH/VLD by 15/16z. Conditions will quickly improve to MVFR behind the front with VFR conditions like developing by the later afternoon at area terminals. Expect frequent 25 knot gusts tomorrow afternoon behind the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Northerly winds develop behind a strong cold front sweeping through the northeastern Gulf Sunday. A Gale Warning is now in effect for Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the waters east of Apalachicola later Sunday afternoon and will continue through Monday morning; Advisory level winds will follow the Gale warning for waters west of Apalachicola. Light to moderate easterly winds are forecast later Monday night with more favorable marine conditions returning to the northeastern Gulf for the middle of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Southwesterly transport winds rapidly turn northerly following the passage of a cold front Sunday morning into the afternoon. This cold front will bring a few showers to our Alabama districts, but the chance for a wetting rain is less than 5 percent. Very low dew points filter in Sunday night into Monday morning with dew points in the single digits forecast for much of our Alabama and Georgia districts along with breezy northerly winds. MinRH values Monday afternoon will be in the 20 to 30 percent range with temperatures in the 40s. Low dispersions are a concern Tuesday thanks to high pressure overhead. Another round of patchy to areas of dense fog is forecast tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 While a few showers are forecast later tonight into early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front, rainfall totals are forecast to be less than 0.10 inch. There is another chance for rain later in the work week, but chances are low, around 20 percent, at this time. No flooding is anticipated the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 63 30 48 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 55 63 31 51 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 51 59 26 46 / 30 10 0 0 Albany 51 57 25 44 / 20 10 0 0 Valdosta 47 63 25 46 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 48 73 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 65 34 50 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ751-752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1254384 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 122 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today, then an arctic cold front will sweep through Sunday. Dry high pressure will then build overhead for much of the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Comfortable temps and sunny skies continue this afternoon as high pressure to the south and east remains in control. Tonight: Aloft, a zonal flow prevails for much of the night in advance of the digging trough across the Midwest. At the sfc, the Atlantic high will extend across the Southeast, while some troughing develops north and inland overnight. Although the pressure gradient remains modest between these features, conditions will remain noticeably more mild than the previous night while a light southwesterly wind advects warmer air into the region well in advance of a cold front. Only potential hazard to highlight overnight is the low (10% or less) risk for some patchy fog away from the immediate coast. Failure to decouple for an extended period, and increasing clouds late, should preclude any dense fog threat. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Bitter Cold Temperatures later Sunday into Tuesday... Sunday: Timing of arctic cold front Sunday coming into better agreement, crossing the area late morning. High temperatures of 60-65 will likely be reached midday, with strong CAA ensuing by early afternoon. A few showers are expected immediately ahead of the front, but rainfall rates will be modest and total rainfall will remain .25 in or less across the area. West- southwest winds in the morning will veer sharply to northwest and increase behind the front by midday. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible early-to-mid-afternoon, with a Lake Wind Advisory now in effect for Lake Moultrie Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. By Sunday night, a strong arctic surface ridge will build from the northwest, keeping northwest to north winds through the night. Temperatures expected to drop into the upper teens well inland, and lower to mid 20s else where, warmest near the coast. Ensemble suites are in good agreement, making windchill values of 5-15 early Monday morning (away from the water) a high predictability, high confidence forecast. Currently, highest probs (30-50%) for wind chill values less than 10F exist across the SC Lowcountry and interior SE GA, which probs are lower (20% or less) along the GA coast. The current configuration of Extreme Cold Watches and Cold Weather Advisories reflect these probabilities. Monday: Deep ridging is shown by all models to settle over the region, with lighter winds and mostly sunny/sunny skies. Despite full sun, guidance continues to hold high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid-40s, 15 to 20 degrees below normal! Monday night, high pressure will start centered over the region, then slowly shift offshore by late night. Light winds, clear skies and dry low levels should allow for strong radiational cooling. Very cold temperatures again expected, with lows around 20 well inland, to the mid 20s to near 30 closer to the coast. Tuesday: This period begins the moderation in temperatures, with the surface ridge shifting further offshore, allowing for low level winds to veer to southwest by afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, highs rebounding into the 50s all areas, which is still a tad below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... All global and blended model solutions show that the large scale/synoptic pattern shifts to zonal, with moderating temperatures through the period. Tuesday night will be the coldest period, with freezing temperatures again expected inland, and mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. Then Wednesday through Saturday, temperatures continue to warm, with temperatures near normal on Wednesday, to above normal Thursday through Saturday. The biggest forecast issue for this period will be how to handle the model differences with chances for precip. late in the period. Some models indicate the potential for another cold front to approach the area later Thursday and early Friday, but timing and amount of deep layer moisture vary between models. For now, the most likely scenario is for a weakening cold front to bring limited precipitation to the area Fri/Sat, with dry high pressure returning thereafter. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z Sunday. There is a low probability (<10%) of patchy/shallow fog at CHS and SAV, but occasional mixing and increasing clouds late limit the potential for fog to impact airport operations. Additionally, a few showers are possible Sunday morning, ahead of an approaching cold front, but limit coverage justified little more than VCSH for the Charleston area TAFs at this time. More noteworthy is the abrupt wind shift, and development of gusty NW winds behind the cold front, which will likely cross the terminals late Sunday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Sunday nigh through mid week. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate tonight, though increasing gradient late ahead of an approaching cold front will bring slowly increasing winds. A few wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible across northern South Carolina waters and outer Georgia waters by the pre-dawn hours. Seas become 2-3 ft overnight in mostly local windswell. ...Hazardous Marine Conditions later Sunday into Monday... A strong arctic cold front will move through the waters later Sunday morning, likely passing through the entire region by midday. Southwest winds will veer sharply to northwest as the front crosses, with gusts to 35 kt possible across the coastal waters where a Gale Watch is now in effect Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. Inshore waters, including the Charleston Harbor, will also see gusty conditions as winds readily mix over the relatively warmer waters Sunday evening and overnight, with an SCA in effect accordingly. Hazardous conditions, especially for seas, are expected to remain through later Monday, especially beyond 20 nm offshore. Winds and seas are expected to fall below any highlight levels Tuesday through Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GAZ087-088. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ040-042>045-050-052. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ047>049-051. Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ330. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1254383 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 215 PM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 215 PM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 * Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected to continue through the weekend across the islands. * Increased moisture due to a trough will continue to reach the islands for the rest of today into Sunday, increasing passing shower activity. Limited afternoon convection possible over northwest PR. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers will increase in frequency once again for the rest of today through Sunday. * Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected to continue tomorrow. * The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level trough over the western Atlantic will promote unstable conditions during the first half of the workweek. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 215 PM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 Early this morning, isolated to scattered showers moved across windward portions of the islands, followed by a patch of drier air that resulted in tranquil conditions through midday. Afterward, moisture content gradually increased, bringing additional fast- moving showers with no significant impacts. Daytime highs reached the mid to upper 80s, with some coastal stations reporting low 90s. Across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico, temperatures remained in the 70s to low 80s. As anticipated, breezy winds persisted, with several surface stations reporting sustained winds of 12 to 20 mph and gusts between 25 and 30 mph from the east to southeast. For the rest of the afternoon, a variable weather pattern is expected to continue, with breaks and periods of fast-moving scattered to numerous showers across the islands. This activity is associated with a surge of moisture from a weak trade-wind trough moving through the area. Conditions are expected to become wetter by late this afternoon and tonight across the U.S. Virgin Islands, most coastal areas of northern and southern Puerto Rico, and the eastern half of Puerto Rico as the aforementioned trough crosses the local area. Recent satellite-derived PWAT data indicate values near 1.8 to 2.0 inches, which are above normal based on climatological data. As a result, there is a limited to elevated flood risk tonight across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as an advective pattern becomes established. Ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas, as well as urban, roads, small-stream, and wash flooding, are possible. By Sunday, PWAT values are expected to drop notably below normal as a drier and more stable air mass moves in from the east. This will allow for a mostly sunny day with only isolated showers (020%), although breezy winds are expected to persist, particularly across coastal areas. By Monday, lighter winds are forecast, and moisture content will gradually increase again late Sunday night into Monday. Scattered showers (30 to 50%) are forecast to increase again as the synoptic setup, affected by a pre-frontal trough, starts to become more favorable for rainfall. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 345 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level trough over the western Atlantic will promote unstable conditions during the first half of the long term period. Normal to slightly above-normal precipitable water content (PWAT) of 1.75 to 1.90 inches will enhance the potential for shower development across the region. Showers are most likely over portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours, followed by afternoon showers over portions of central and western Puerto Rico. During this period, the 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop into the -6C to -7C range, meaning the potential for afternoon thunderstorms, particularly across western Puerto Rico, cannot be ruled out. At the surface, a strong high-pressure system located over the central Atlantic will maintain an east-southeasterly wind flow across the area, promoting slightly higher than normal temperatures throughout the week. However, by the second half of the long-term period, another high-pressure system is expected to build over the western Atlantic behind the frontal system. By then, winds are expected to shift from the northeast, leading to cooler temperatures into the northeastern Caribbean region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 215 PM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions for the terminals. E-SE winds at 13-20 kts, with gusts up to 23-30 kts through 13/23Z, decreasing after. An increase in VCSH/-SHRA (due to a weak surface trough) is forecast during the afternoon to overnight hours, these can promote tempo MVFR conditions to brief IFR conditions over eastern terminals. Isol VCTS/-TSRA also possible, through 14/07Z. Winds will increase again after around 14/13-14Z to 12 to 18 kt from the E-SE, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 A surface high-pressure system will continue to build near the Azores through the weekend, promoting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the local waters. Increasing winds and a fading long-period northerly swell will result in choppy to rough seas, mainly across the Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect at least through Sunday afternoon across the offshore Atlantic waters. A cold front and another surface high- pressure system will move from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic early next week, weakening the pressure gradient and allowing for gentle to moderate winds through Tuesday. By midweek, increasing winds and a northwesterly swell will deteriorate marine conditions once again. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 215 PM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 A fading, long-period northerly swell will create life-threatening rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of the islands, where a Rip Current Statement remains in effect at least through Sunday morning. Beachgoers are urged to avoid swimming under these conditions. The west and south-facing beaches of the islands will have a moderate risk of rip currents tonight. By Sunday and early next week, a low to moderate risk of rip currents is expected to dominate, with beach conditions deteriorating again by midweek as a northwesterly swell spreads across the local Atlantic waters. For specific location information, please visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008. High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ012. VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711. && $$ |
| #1254382 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 107 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A front will push through the Keys tonight bringing isolated thunderstorms and high rain chances peaking overnight before tapering off Sunday morning. -Drying and freshening breezy conditions expected Sunday night into Monday, with post-frontal winds reaching Small Craft Advisory levels Monday and persisting through early Tuesday. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Showers and thunderstorms remain prolific across the western half of the Straits of Florida, especially near and southwest of Wood`s Wall Crack. As the afternoon progresses and we go into the overnight, expected coverage to expand towards the north and east. Showers are expected to become more numerous with additional scattered thunderstorms. Main hazards will be the potential for gusty winds, locally rough and confused seas, occasional lightning strikes, and potentially blinding downpours. Outside of any convection, expect moderate to fresh breezes across the waters south of the island chain to briefly slacken on Sunday ahead of the next front. Expecting a frontal passage from the northwest starting in the afternoon across the outer Gulf waters and overtaking the remaining coastal waters towards sunset Sunday. In the wake of the frontal passage, breezes will sharply freshen with a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes possibly lingering into Tuesday. Breezes, thereafter, will slacken but will remain generally gentle to moderate. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Precipitation continues to slowly drift northward this afternoon but has thus far stayed just outside of 10 nm of the EYW terminal. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing this afternoon for both island terminals, peaking this evening. Have introduced VCSH to both EYW and MTH with a tempo for TS at EYW around sunset. This may need to be adjusted sooner and will be handled with amendments if needed. Outside of any convection, winds will generally be east through the forecast period, but expect a backing to the northwest Sunday afternoon as the next cold front approaches. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 This morning, temperatures across the Florida Keys are near 70F, with dew points in the mid 60s. Winds along the Reef are generally from the northeast to east at 15 to 20 knots, driven by high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure to the west. This gradient is strongest over the water currently accounting for these slightly elevated winds along the Reef and offshore. Skies are mostly cloudy with upper-level clouds being observed on Nighttime Microphysics imagery, while lower-level clouds remain limited. KBYX radar shows a few light showers in the distant Straits, though the island chain has remained generally rain-free overnight. Moderate to fresh breezes are expected to start to slacken this morning, therefore the headline "Small Craft Exercise Caution Until Winds Decrease" is in place for the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida until those winds come down early afternoon. Later in the day, a shortwave trough advancing across the western Gulf waters will drive a front through the Keys. Pre-frontal moisture advection will result in numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with rain chances peaking tonight at 80%. As the front moves through, shower activity will diminish starting late Sunday morning rapidly drying out by Sunday night and Monday. Post- frontal winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels Monday through possibly Tuesday morning while the pressure gradient behind the front tightens. Mid-week, another area of high pressure will build across the region, resulting in generally uneventful weather. Shower chances will be minimal (~10%) with gentle to moderate breezes. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254381 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 104 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Benign weather is expected tonight into Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday night into Sunday, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and relatively mild today with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions late tonight and Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory issues for Dorchester and Wicomico Counties. Transient sfc high pressure is located along the coast early this morning, which will slide offshore today as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Latest obs show temps in the mid to upper 20s, which will likely stabilize as high level cloud cover moves into the area. Dry and relatively mild today ahead of tonight/tomorrow`s system. Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to mid 50s from I-64 south. A strong Arctic cold front is then set to cross through the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Precip associated with this front will enter far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. This looks to be a case where cold air is chasing the precip, so the mode likely starts out as rain before transitioning to snow on the back- end. The 00z CAMs are generally consistent with keeping the most wide-spread snow/rain across the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps into the Northern Neck. The accumulation forecast has not changed too much from the previous forecast cycle. Currently calling for 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore, primarily in Dorchester and Wicomico. Less than an inch of accumulation is forecast along and N of the I-64 corridor, omitting the Hampton Roads portion, and the lower Eastern Shore. Cannot rule out a trace/dusting for Hampton Roads should the changeover happen in time. A "reasonable worst case" would be 2-3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. Went ahead and issues a Winter Weather Advisory for 1am-1pm Sunday for Dorchester and Wicomico with this in mind. Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday and peak in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35mph will be possible. Highs range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid-afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday afternoon, there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories are likely. The arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday with lows in the low to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... - Moderating temperatures expected through the middle of next week. - A potential front brings rain chances late-week Tuesday through Thursday will follow a warming trend once the strong high is suppressed to the SE and the UL trough lifts out. Highs on Tues look to be in the 40s, followed by the 50s on Wed, and around 60 on Thursday. Tuesday and Wed look dry, then a potential front returns rain chances to the forecast Thursday afternoon. Will say that there is not a lot of confidence in details on this front given the varying solutions from the global models. Behind the front temps cool again, but this time sticking closer to seasonal norms. Forecast highs for Friday are in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for most of the 18z/13 TAF period. High clouds and SW winds of ~10 kt are expected through most of tonight ahead of an Arctic cold front. That front crosses the terminals from late tonight into Sunday morning (09-15z). A few hours of precipitation will likely accompany the front. A period of -RASN is likely at RIC/SBY changing to all snow with a couple hours worth of IFR VSBYs (best chc at SBY but an hour or so of IFR VSBYs is possible in -SN at RIC). A rain/snow mix is expected at PHF/ORF, with mainly rain at ECG. In addition to the precip, CIGs likely drop to MVFR behind the front, with a couple hours worth of IFR CIGs possible before dry/VFR conditions return Sunday afternoon (w/ NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt). VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. Winds remain gusty near the coast Sunday night before diminishing on Monday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday morning, with Gale conditions then expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night. - Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, high pressure (~1020 mb) is centered over the waters resulting in light and variable winds. Seas are averaging 1 to 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 foot or less. High pressure will center further offshore later this morning and a warm front will lift north over the waters. As the warm front lifts north, winds become S to SW and increase to around 10 knots (10 to 15 knots northern coastal waters). Meanwhile, a strong, Arctic cold front will be approaching from the NW today and is expected to cross the waters tonight into early Sunday morning. This will be the main focus of the forecast period. In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft will mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters helping create very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning-early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon- evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday, sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Winds then diminish, eventually falling below Gale thresholds everywhere by ~12z, and below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for all of the waters Sunday- Sunday night. SCAs will likely be needed late Sunday night into Monday as Gale headlines begin to drop off. In addition to the wind, seas build to 5 to 9 feet by Sunday night, though the offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday night as the bitterly cold air filters into the area in combination with the strong winds. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should help to keep any freezing spray on the lighter side. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. NC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254380 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1253 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mild conditions today and tonight ahead of an arctic cold frontal passage Sunday morning. High pressure will then return with very cold temperatures Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up toward mid week with another mainly dry cold frontal passage Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High and dry this afternoon as temperatures have soared into the middle to upper 60s along the coast with slightly cooler albeit still pleasant readings inland. Long advertised arctic front now located off to the north and west (as seen by numerous satellite images) will move across quickly Sunday mid morning. A quick area of showers with the boundary remains reasonable with high/short lived pops. Highs in the lower 50s Sunday will be realized early then falling rapidly into the 40s by mid to late afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... *KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: Dangerous cold Sun night into Mon AM *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Well Below normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: Arctic high pressure will bring near record cold temperatures and gusty winds causing dangerous wind chills around 5- 10 degrees Sun night into early Mon morning. We have maintained the Extreme Cold Watch for now given some lingering uncertainty regarding how low wind chills will get but confidence is high that at the very least we will reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria (6-15 degrees) for all areas. Also something to note as a very low but non- zero probability, black ice may develop on roads Sun eve as temps quickly fall below freezing (especially inland). Fortunately, the lack of significant rainfall and rapid drying/breezy conditions for several hours Sun afternoon should prevent much ice from developing. Not much warming expected Mon as highs struggle to reach 40 degrees. Another very cold night is on tap Mon night as the high moves more overhead leading to better radiational cooling conditions. Thus, we leaned toward the lower end of model guidance for lows (~20 inland to ~30 at the immediate coast), although with much less wind the wind chills should mostly stay above our Cold Weather Advisory criteria (15 degrees). Dry weather with below normal temps will then continue through Tue night as high pressure maintains control. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... *KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: Low to Mod Thu thru Fri w/ best chances Thu night *Temps: Near to above normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: The arctic air mass over the area will continue to modify as it slides offshore late week ahead of a cold frontal passage late Thu night/early Fri. Moisture/forcing appear limited with this feature so only carrying low to moderate rain chances with not much accumulation anticipated. Temps will fall back closer to normal late week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. There is an outside chance for brief MVFR ceilings with a narrow line of showers later tonight/early Sunday morning associated with the long advertised arctic front. Gusty northwest winds will be the story mid morning Sunday and beyond. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Expect Light and variable (will identify a best direction in lieu of going variable) winds during the pre- dawn hrs into daylight Sat. The sfc high will slide off the Carolina Coasts later today, resulting in winds becoming SW 5 to 10 kt. As the Arctic front approaches the waters from the NW, look for SW winds to increase to possibly SCA levels late tonight. Seas will follow suit, at their lowest at the start of this period, building as sfc winds increase. Majority of the seas will result from short period wind waves. An underlying but small SE ground swell to remain present and accounted for. Sunday night through Thursday...Moderate to high confidence this period. Hazardous marine conditions expected into early Mon due to strong cold advection behind a passing arctic front with gale force gusts up to around 40 kt a good bet thru Sun night. Conditions will improve pretty quickly Mon as high pressure moves more overhead and the pressure gradient/cold advection slacken. High pressure will then maintain control as it slowly shifts offshore with no additional marine concerns expected thru mid week. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1254379 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1251 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - A little warmer today with dry conditions continuing. Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds at times. - The next cold front will push through during Sunday but will come through mostly dry. Scattered showers and a storm or two will affect Treasure coast/Okeechobee. - Breezy to windy conditions develop Sunday evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds in behind the front. These winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions Sun night/Mon, with high surf and beach erosion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today/tonight...High pressure ridge axis draped across north central FL will weaken and push seaward. Dry conditions persist today with light winds turning onshore in a sea breeze around 10 mph south of the Cape. There will be some increase in high clouds filtering the sun at times as well as some fair weather cumulus. Max temps will warm into the mid and upper 70s, slightly above normal for mid Dec. Tonight, moisture lifts northward from south FL. Along with considerable cloudiness there will be scattered showers and possibly a storm or two after midnight lifting northward into Okeechobee and Treasure coast counties. Across northern sections, there is a better chance for fog across Volusia county, spreading southward toward metro Orlando. Sun-Mon...Ongoing showers across southern sections Sun morning will move NE and offshore onto the Atlc as a cold front pushes steadily southward across the area during the day. A NW breeze will develop initially behind the front. Then strong high pressure (1040mb) over the central US builds SE into FL and tightens the NW-N pressure gradient late Sun and esp Sun night. This will result in a period of windy conditions along the coast with Wind Advisories likely Sun night into early Monday. While it will become noticeably cooler with max temps holding in the 60s on Monday, because the winds turn onshore so quickly, the cold continental airmass will rapidly modify over EC FL sparing us any freeze concerns. These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion Sun night into Mon. Fortunately the duration will be very short as the high pressure weakens steadily as it reaches the Carolina coast late Mon. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. A High Surf Advisory may be needed for breaking waves of 7-9 FT. Tue-Fri...The high pressure will shift eastward over the Atlc. A trailing ridge axis will remain near 30N lat so a general easterly flow will dominate Tue-Wed at 10-15 mph veering SE Thu 10 mph. The next cold front is forecast to approach Fri but lack of moisture looks to limit rain chances. Temperatures will undergo a warming trend each day reaching the upper 70s/near 80 Thu (mid 70s coastal Volusia). Lows will generally be in the 50s, holding in the lower 60s along the coast by Thu morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure ridge across the northern (Volusia) waters will produce favorable boating conditions again today. Light and variable winds will turn northeast to east up to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and up to 3 FT offshore Treasure coast. Scattered showers and a few storms will lift north into the southern (Treasure coast) waters tonight and Sun ahead of a cold front. This next front will sweep across the waters during Sunday with a NW wind shift. Winds will increase out of the north late Sunday and Sunday night as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind the cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20-30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore (up to 10 FT nearshore Volusia) and up to 13 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and 10-15 KT Tue as pressure gradient eases. High pressure pushes out to sea Wed and winds veer Easterly remaining 10-15 KT. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with seas falling below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream late in the day. Seas Wed 3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR to continue thru at least 03z Sun. ESE winds 5-10 kt (with occasional gusts 15-20 kt VRB-SUA) become light/variable tonight. Low-mid cloud cover increases south to north after 03z Sun., particularly for VRB/FPR/SUA but could drift as far north as MLB/ISM. SHRA/TSRA are possible after 04z-06z for Treasure Coast terminals with MVFR conds at times. Additionally, BR/FG is anticipated at northern terminals (esp. DAB/SFB/LEE). Some development cannot be ruled out at MCO/ISM, though cloud cover may hinder greater coverage of FG. Conds should return to mostly VFR after 14z Sun., outside of lingering clouds (perhaps VCSH) south. NW winds increase after 17z to 8-12 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 57 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 60 78 53 64 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 62 78 57 67 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 61 79 59 69 / 30 30 10 10 LEE 57 77 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 58 78 50 63 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 60 78 50 63 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 61 79 59 69 / 40 30 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1254378 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will likely become necessary. - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 An upper-level trough is expected to dig southeastward throughout the weekend. As it does so, it will help to push a strong cold front through the area on Sunday. Prior to the passage of the front, high pressure to our east will keep a light onshore flow pattern in place through tonight. This will give way to a rather mild and humid day today, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. The biggest forecast challenge over the next few hours is the possibility of fog developing. Although the environment is primed for fog to develop prior to sunrise (dew points increased into the mid to upper 50s, light winds, and subsidence from the nearby high), a deck of mid-level clouds is currently streaming across the local region, helping to prevent fog from developing as of 1am. Looking at satellite and obs over south central Mississippi, it seems like the cloud deck is slowly starting to erode, and underneath these cloud breaks are where obs are beginning to report dense fog. We will keep an eye on this throughout the remainder of the overnight hours. As of issuance time, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for coastal counties, as well as Stone and George counties. If clouds continue to erode and fog begins to develop over interior counties, then we will likely need to expand the advisory northward. Although fog should dissipate after sunrise for most areas, HREF probabilities do continue to keep a low potential for sea fog to develop and stick around throughout the day on Saturday over portions of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi sound, and surrounding areas. Additionally, another round of fog may develop later tonight/early Sunday morning prior to the passage of the front, primarily over coastal counties. Outside of fog potential, rain chances will be on the increase this afternoon and especially as we get into tonight due to moisture pooling out ahead of the front and weak forcing. Rain will likely start off as light, warm air advection showers this afternoon, transitioning to a broken line of light to moderate rainfall by the overnight hours. No thunderstorms are expected due to a lack of instability. We dry out by mid-Sunday morning as the cold front sweeps through. We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for Sunday night and into Monday as an arctic high pressure system builds in behind the front. With the front likely moving through during the morning hours on Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day as strong cold air advection commences. Lows Sunday night are expected to plummet down to the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. Factoring in breezy conditions likely continuing through Sunday night due to a tight pressure gradient, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 9-15 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we will likely reach our Cold Weather Advisory criteria for Sunday night across the entire area, although it should be noted that several areas now are flirting with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Regardless of which product ultimately gets issued, residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Low rain chances may also return to the area by late week. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions prevail until around midnight with a mix of low and mid level clouds, with a few light showers popping up from time to time along and north of U.S. Highway 84. Very low ceilings and patchy to areas of fog will develop after midnight ahead a strong cold approaching from the north. Most ceilings will reach the LIFR to IFR criteria, with visibilities mostly reaching IFR to MVFR criteria. A line of showers will accompany the cold front, which is expected to reach the coast by daybreak Sunday, with northerly winds sustained around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the wake of the front. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. We will have to monitor for the potential of sea fog developing this morning and lingering through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over the Gulf waters. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 48 60 23 / 20 50 30 0 Pensacola 72 53 63 28 / 10 40 30 0 Destin 71 55 64 31 / 10 30 30 0 Evergreen 72 43 56 21 / 20 60 20 0 Waynesboro 69 40 51 19 / 30 70 10 0 Camden 68 40 51 19 / 20 70 10 0 Crestview 73 49 60 22 / 10 40 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1254377 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 101 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week. - Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Surface high pressure over Florida will keep light winds, rain-free and warm conditions over Florida through the day. A little farther to the south, a frontal boundary extends from east to west across the Bahamas, Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf. As high pressure weakens by early Sunday morning, this front will slowly lift northward over southwest Florida bringing increasing moisture and a chance of rain for southwest Florida starting early Sunday morning and continuing through the afternoon on Sunday. These areas of rain will be limited to southwest Florida with most of west central Florida and the Nature Coast staying rain-free. Another dry cold front will push through the Florida peninsula late Sunday evening, but is not expected to bring any rainfall with it. This cold front pushes south of Florida by Monday morning and strong high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. in the wake of this front. This high will help advect in some much colder air to start out next week. Early morning temperatures on Monday and Tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30`s along the Nature Coast and into the 40`s and 50`s for central and southwest Florida. High pressure pushes east into the western Atlantic by Wednesday morning allowing for continued rain-free conditions and a warming trend to set up over Florida. Temperatures moderate close to average by Wednesday and even warmer for the latter part of the week reaching the 80`s for daytime highs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected through today. For tonight, a front moving northward will bring a chance for rain along with reduced CIGs/VSBYs for KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW starting around 09Z and continuing through tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf will produce east through northeast winds around 10 knots through Sunday morning. Winds shift northerly on Sunday behind a cold front and will become gusty reaching Small Craft Advisory level by late Sunday evening and continuing through the day on Monday. Conditions improve by mid- morning on Tuesday as high pressure settles into the southeast U.S. This will keep northeast through east winds around 10-15 knots through Thursday, then further decreasing 5-10 knots for the latter part of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 No Red Flag fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, mainly over inland locations north of Tampa Bay. A chance of showers will be possible over SW Florida early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon as a front lifts northward. Clearing and breezy conditions expected on Monday as high pressure builds into the area. No other fire weather concerns anticipated into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 62 78 51 66 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 65 80 56 73 / 40 40 0 0 GIF 60 79 50 65 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 62 78 52 70 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 53 77 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 65 76 54 67 / 10 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1254376 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1251 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dangerously Low Wind Chills Sunday Night & Monday Morning. A Cold Weather Advisory in Effect [Wind Chills: 15-25F]: Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Hard Freeze Conditions [Freeze Watch in Effect] for Inland Southeast GA and Suwannee Valley Sunday Night and Monday Morning. Light Freezes expected generally south of I-10 and for Jacksonville. - Dangerous Maritime Conditions Developing Sunday Afternoon. Gale Watches In Effect for all Georgia and northeastern Florida coastal waters. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The beautiful, warm, sunny day continues under the influence of high pressure this afternoon with highs pushing into the 70s areawide. Though weather conditions today are excellent, a large upper trough will begin its dive toward the southeast tonight. This will be a significant system as the airmass will be a true arctic airmass with a deep northwesterly flow with extending from northern Canada into the southeastern US. The attendant surface front and arctic airmass aren`t expected to blast through the area until Sunday afternoon and evening, so preparations to protect sensitive plants, livestock, and people should begin today. As far as tonight, another cool but near normal December night is expected with readings falling to the upper 40s and low 50s. The increasing southwesterly flow tonight should push lower- level Gulf moisture inland resulting in an increased fog potential for the Suwannee Valley, interior area of SE GA, and north- central FL where locally dense fog may develop by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will move southeast of the area Sunday morning, with a weak secondary front moving through in the afternoon, as strong high pressure builds to the northwest. A few showers will be possible with the frontal passage, mainly for inland SE GA, where better moisture will be. Temperatures will likely not fall a diurnal curve on Sunday, with readings peaking earlier in the afternoon, with readings then falling. Skies will slowly clear from northwest to southeast through day. Due to the gradient between the exiting frontal system and building high, winds will become elevated and gusty during the afternoon. On Sunday night the high will build more toward the north. This pattern will yield a cold north northeast flow across the area. The exception will be for coastal NE FL, where the northeast flow will bringer milder air from the Atlantic. Skies will be clear, except for a few clouds in the onshore flow along NE FL coast. The pressure gradient will still be pretty significant Sunday night, keeping winds elevated and gusty through the night. Temperatures Sunday night will have a wide range, with lows over inland SE GA in the lower to mid 20s, and lower to mid 40s NE FL coast. With winds still elevated, Cold Weather Advisory headlines will be needed to highlight expected cold due to winds chills and impacts on people, while freeze warnings will be needed to highlight impact on plants. Too much wind for frost development Sunday night. On Monday, the high will build closer to the area. Weak troughing along the coastal waters will result in scattered cloud cover over eastern counties, with more sunshine further inland. The cold airmass will remain in place, with highs well below seasonal averages. For Monday night, the high will settle over southern GA, with weak troughing remaining over the coastal waters. Once again, a wide range in temperatures are expected due to the onshore flow. Lows in the middle 20s will be common over inland SE GA, to the middle 40s NE FL coast. In addition to the freezing temperatures, light winds will yield a greater Frost potential. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure ridge will become centered more toward the northeast Tuesday, then east Wednesday and Thursday. The high will away late week, as a cold front moves through. High pressure will build to the northeast following passage on Saturday. Other than the chance for a few showers inland SE GA ahead of the front Thursday night, this is expected to be a dry period. Above normal temperatures are forecast this period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Light winds will continue with a weak Atlantic seas breeze developing near coastal airfields this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected at coastal sites through the period. For KVQQ and KGNV, there will be potential for patchy low stratus and light fog (IFR/MVFR) late tonight. Fog that forms will lift by 14z as northwesterly winds begin to increase ahead of an arctic cold front that will bring gusty northwesterly winds Sunday afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots. && .MARINE... Fair maritime conditions continue through Sunday morning before a strong, arctic cold front pushes through the waters Sunday afternoon, brining gales and moderately high seas during the evening and overnight hours Sunday into Monday. North-northwesterly winds nearing gale are expected to develop Sunday evening and continue into Monday with frequent gusts up to 40 knots. For this concern, a Gale Watch has been issued across all the waters Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Winds should decrease to Small Craft Advisory levels late Monday morning and continue to decrease as high pressure slides in from the north. Seas will lower Monday night with the diminishing winds with generally fair maritime conditions through Thursday as a weaker front approaches from the northwest. RIP CURRENTS AND SURF CONDITIONS: Little rip current activity expected Sunday morning. Increasing risk begins Sunday afternoon as strong winds arrive. Surf heights will rise quickly overnight Sunday into Monday, with "High Surf" conditions expected. This will lead to a High Risk for Rip Currents Monday and likely Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move southeast across the area Tonight into Sunday morning. Strong high pressure will build behind this boundary. Elevated and gusty winds expected from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature then through Thursday night. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday, followed by high pressure ridging Saturday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog Tonight, with greatest coverage south of Gainesville. Widespread Frost SE GA, and inland NE FL Monday night. Areas of frost inland SE GA Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 48 63 22 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 67 53 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 74 49 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 72 54 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 76 51 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 52 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236- 322-422-425-522. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1254375 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1241 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure slides through today. A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sat...Heights/thicknesses rise ahead of a strong cold front as swrly winds inc today. This will bring much warmer conditions (briefly) with highs expected to reach the 60s inland. The cold shelf waters will keep the beaches chilly in the 55-60 range. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat...Much warmer tonight as WAA strengthens ahead of approaching cold front. Temps will range from the 45-50 range northern tier to the low 50s south. Cold front will reach the FA by morning, thus the daytime highs will be realized around sunrise Mon, wherein temps fall quickly through the day Mon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. Sunday through Sunday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. Most guidance a bit drier than NBM, so overly eager NBM pops have been toned down to the 50-70% range, highest chances srn and ern areas. Bulk of precip is rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain as precip comes to an end in the afternoon. No impacts with warm ground in place and meager moisture. Aforementioned high temps should be realized in the morning Sunday, before plunging through the 30s in the afternoon hours. Breezy conditions develop in tandem with the strong CAA, and it will feel quite raw by late day. Coldest night of the season thus far will be realized Sun night/Mon morning. Guidance and thicknesses suggest lows 15-20 interior zones, with 20s OBX zones. Very well mixed atms will prevent lows from reaching their lowest potential, and where NBM is usually too warm on lows with radiational cooling, it tends to be a couple degrees too warm on well mixed nights. Have fcst a multi model MOS blend as a result. With the wind in place, apparent t`s will reach the upper single digits to low teens for most, and likely a cold wx advisory will be needed. Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning, then winds abate later in the day. Mon night expected to be cold once again, and with very dry atms and light winds in place, temps should reach the lower end of guidance, with teens interior zones and 20s nearer the coast. Light return flow may kick in later in the night with temps leveling off. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday (20%) and Thursday night (30-40%)with a cold front approaching and moving through the region. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday. Friday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. Trough will be low amplitude and thicknesses/hts don`t drop too drastically. Therefore temps will cont mild behind the fropa, with above climo readings expected. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1 PM Sat... Key Messages - VFR conditions expected through late tonight - MVFR ceilings develop early Sunday morning and linger into Sunday afternoon Clear skies and light winds will persist through the first half of tonight as high pressure remains in place ahead of a cold front. After midnight clouds will begin to increase from west to east, with ceilings developing and lowering to MVFR levels by 5-7 am. At this time, scattered light rain will move into the area, leading to further lowering of ceilings to 1000-2000 ft through the rest of the morning hours. Most guidance has only low probabilities of IFR conditions developing, but some brief periods are possible especially where rain is the steadiest. Improving conditions expected tomorrow afternoon, however strong NW winds will develop with wind gusts 20-30 mph possible. Finally, increasing LLWS may bring issues to terminals overnight, mostly from 1-6 am. Outlook: Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Monday. VFR conditions persist through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sun afternoon through Sun night for nnwrly winds 30-40 kt expected. Through Tonight...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through today as high pres eases offshore. SW winds increase a bit into the 5-15 kt range today, though a bit higher in the Gulf waters with 10-20 kt expected. Tonight, gradient inc more with strengthening WAA expected, with SCA winds over the Gulf waters with 20-25 kt g 30 kt expected. Remainder of the waters will remain under a strong marine inversion and 10-15 kt expected. Seas in the 2-4 ft range through tonight. Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sun with passage of arctic front. Winds build to gales first in the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Sun afternoon, and have upgraded to gale warning here. Rest of the waters, sounds, and Alligator River build to gales Sun night, and remain in a 4th period gale watch. Seas peak 6-10 ft in the relatively short-lived gale Sun night. Monday...Winds die down quickly by early Mon morning with gales quickly diminishing to SCA conditions, mainly in lingering high seas, as high pres builds. Return flow already ensues Mon night with swrly flow 5-15 kt g 20 kt expected. May flirt with SCA again on the Gulf waters esp south of C Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad swrly flow in the 5-15 kt range expected, with generally good boating conditions expected with seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1254374 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 PM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1208 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Generally dry and seasonable weather through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will spread from south to north tonight and early Sunday, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible. - High risk of rip currents through late tonight for all Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Very tricky rainfall forecast for tonight into Sunday across South FL. Low level moisture is expected to increase this evening as the flow becomes more E/SE and a weak low in the SE Gulf eventually moves over the far southern peninsula early Sunday, riding along a weak frontal boundary that will slowly lift north across Southern FL. At the upper levels, there is a deep trough that will dig through the eastern US with the trough axis expected to move across FL sometime late Sunday night. This will also help push a cold front through the area overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Given the weak surface features involved, not a surprise that the hi- res guidance is all over the place regarding rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours. 25th percentile amounts are generally a couple tenths of an inch, where the 90th percentile precip amounts show pockets of 1-3 inches across the east coast metro. HREF PWAT values peak at 1.5-1.8 inches, with the highest PWAT values centered over far SE FL. Given the high end potential if all the ingredients come together, WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain across the east coast metro which is reasonable given that if the higher end numbers occur, there would be a limited urban flood threat across typical poor drainage locations. Bulk of the showers and thunderstorms should be tonight and into early Sunday across South FL, with diminishing PoPs as the day progresses on Sunday with the weak low moving off to the east. Residual low level moisture will keep a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Sunday until the cold front arrives late Sunday night. Temperatures this weekend will be slightly above normal with highs in the lower 80s. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to upper 60s across the east coast metro. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings across the east coast metro this afternoon. Easterly winds 10-15 kts with a mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze expected at APF. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this evening and overnight. Winds early Sunday becoming WNW under 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form. && .BEACHES... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 81 65 74 / 70 50 20 20 West Kendall 65 82 62 75 / 70 50 10 10 Opa-Locka 67 82 64 75 / 70 50 20 10 Homestead 68 81 64 76 / 70 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 81 65 73 / 70 60 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 69 81 66 72 / 70 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 67 82 64 75 / 70 50 20 20 West Palm Beach 68 81 65 72 / 60 40 20 10 Boca Raton 68 82 65 74 / 60 50 20 20 Naples 66 81 59 76 / 50 30 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254373 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1041 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A front will push through the Keys tonight bringing isolated thunderstorms and high rain chances peaking overnight before tapering off Sunday morning. -Drying and freshening breezy conditions expected Sunday night into Monday, with post-frontal winds reaching Small Craft Advisory levels Monday and persisting through early Tuesday. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Activity has been steadily increasing this morning for the Florida Keys, most across the Straits of Florida. A remnant frontal boundary lies across the southwestern Atlantic and extends west southwest across the Florida Keys and to the Yucatan Peninsula. This boundary is loaded with precipitation is beginning to slowly lift northward as a psuedo-warm front. At the surface we remain generally east-northeast but aloft we quickly go southeast, then south to southwest. This veering profile has lent itself to allow for a very few select showers to develop into thunderstorms. The saving grace for now is that we have just a tad bit too much sheer from the southwest, which is limiting the organization of convection. What showers were able to develop into thunderstorms last on the order of 15 to 30 minutes before getting their tops sheered to the northeast. Meanwhile, an upper level trough is moving into the western Gulf waters and a surface low is beginning to take shape. Lastly, we`re keeping an eye on a shortwave over the Yucatan Channel, which is a remnant along the tail end of the aforementioned frontal boundary. All of this to say that the ingredients are coming together for a wet afternoon and overnight. As such, have upped PoPs for the Lower and Middle Keys. Given the current movement of activity and moisture, the Lower Keys will likely be first in line to see precipitation reach the island chain, followed by the Middle Keys, and likely holding off until closer to sunset for the Upper Keys. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 This morning, temperatures across the Florida Keys are near 70F, with dew points in the mid 60s. Winds along the Reef are generally from the northeast to east at 15 to 20 knots, driven by high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure to the west. This gradient is strongest over the water currently accounting for these slightly elevated winds along the Reef and offshore. Skies are mostly cloudy with upper-level clouds being observed on Nighttime Microphysics imagery, while lower-level clouds remain limited. KBYX radar shows a few light showers in the distant Straits, though the island chain has remained generally rain-free overnight. Moderate to fresh breezes are expected to start to slacken this morning, therefore the headline "Small Craft Exercise Caution Until Winds Decrease" is in place for the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida until those winds come down early afternoon. Later in the day, a shortwave trough advancing across the western Gulf waters will drive a front through the Keys. Pre-frontal moisture advection will result in numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with rain chances peaking tonight at 80%. As the front moves through, shower activity will diminish starting late Sunday morning rapidly drying out by Sunday night and Monday. Post- frontal winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels Monday through possibly Tuesday morning while the pressure gradient behind the front tightens. Mid-week, another area of high pressure will build across the region, resulting in generally uneventful weather. Shower chances will be minimal (~10%) with gentle to moderate breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 1041 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Straits of Florida through this afternoon, Coverage will be increasing, first for the Straits of Florida and then spreading to the rest of the coastal waters. Winds outside of any convection will continue to be moderate to fresh for mostly the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida waters. Gentle to moderate will prevail, especially across the nearshore waters north of the island chain. Mariners and boaters should anticipate for locally higher winds and confused seas in and around developing shower and thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms will becoming more widespread after sunset with a threat for stronger winds and seas in around thunderstorms persisting. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions prevail, however, monitoring convection that continues to develop south of the EYW terminal. This line is inching northwest and will eventually reach the island chain by this afternoon. Given the lack of organization at this time, will keep mentions of TS limited to TEMPO groups as needed. However, will likely need to introduce VCTS towards sunset as coverage increases for both island terminals. Outside of any convection, winds will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 71 80 67 / 40 80 40 20 Marathon 79 71 78 67 / 40 80 40 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254372 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:12 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 909 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 900 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog is expected this morning across the Tri- State region. Fog could be dense in some locations. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday. Cold weather products are expected to be issued for Sun-Mon and Mon-Tue. Dangerously cold wind chills are expected Monday morning, with a medium (30-60%) chance for a Hard Freeze (temps below 25 degrees) on Tuesday morning for our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties. - Small craft conditions are likely later Sunday into Monday morning for the Gulf waters. Isolated gusts to gale force are possible west of Apalachicola. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Areas of dense fog are slowly diminishing. There are currently two separate fog banks. One extends from Calhoun County FL and eastward along I-10 and up into Brooks and Lowndes Counties in GA. The other has been centered around Albany and adjacent areas. This should slowly dissipate over the next hour or two, but we may need to extend the Dense Fog Advisory in a few spots for another hour if it continues to linger. The other change to the forecast this afternoon was to add some low-end rain chances (around 20%) from northern Walton County up into Dale County. A few isolated showers are possible in the warm air advection regime, and hi-res guidance has started trending toward that possibility. But little to no impact is expected from these showers. Otherwise, the forecast elsewhere remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Patchy to areas of fog, with dense fog possible, is expected to develop this morning and may linger into the late morning hours. The most likely locations for dense fog will be in the AL and GA wiregrass regions and the FL Big Bend region. Surface high pressure still keeping us warm and dry during the day. Light southerly winds with highs in the low 70s this afternoon. There is a slight chance for showers very late tonight in SE Alabama. This will be dependent on the forward speed of the approaching cold front, which may delay the rain until daybreak Sunday morning. Temperatures this morning and tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, and warming to the low 50s along the Emerald Coast for tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 One would think this should be a slam-dunk forecast but, alas, reality is not so simple. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region beginning Sunday morning through the evening hours. Just ahead of the front, there is a slight chance (30-40%) for showers in our SE Alabama counties during the morning hours on Sunday, as well as patchy fog for the FL Big Bend region. As the front comes through, winds will quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 25 mph and become more northerly through the night. The wind gusts will decrease during the day Monday. Colder temperatures are expected behind the front but, the there is uncertainty in how quickly the colder temperatures will move into the region and also how cold it will get for Monday and Tuesday mornings. - When the cold front arrives, our AL and GA counties may experience falling temperatures during the day on Sunday, with the highest temp of the day occurring in the morning. This will depend on how strong the cold air advection is following the frontal passage as well as the timing of the passage. - The wind behind the front through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday will be a gentle breeze around 10 mph, which would be enough to create wind chills (feels-like temperatures) in the upper teens to low 20s by Monday morning. For areas along and north of I-10, there is currently a high chance of experiencing wind chills below 25 degrees Monday morning. The same area has at least a 25% chance of experiencing wind chills below 20 degrees. These wind chills are expected to reach criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory will needing to be issued for this time period. The coastal panhandle should finally experience their first freeze of the season Monday morning. Due to that, they may need a Freeze Warning for this time period, along with the aforementioned Cold Weather Advisory. - As the winds decrease during the day Monday, the wind chills will moderate. However, temperatures will be struggling to make it out of the 40s for much of the region. There is uncertainty as the winds may shift easterly during the day, allowing for moisture return and some cloud cover to begin Monday. This could allow for temperatures to be a little warmer on Monday (low 50s instead of upper 40s), particularly for our eastern counties along the I-75 corridor and SE FL Big Bend. - Winds will be light to calm Monday night into Tuesday with mostly clear skies. The CAA won`t be active, so we will have to rely on radiational cooling and the location of the surface high. For Tuesday morning, due to the light/calm winds, wind chills will be the same or close to the actual temperatures. Forecast temperatures will be in the low to mid-20s, with temps in the low 30s along the immediate coast and SE Big Bend. There is a medium chance (30-60%) for temps to fall below 25 degrees for our AL and GA counties. This would be the night for a Freeze (Hard Freeze) Warning in our AL and GA counties. During the day Tuesday, temperatures will gradually warm as an upper level ridge begins to build. Temps will warm to the upper 50s and low 60s, and continue this warming trend through Friday with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 TLH/ABY/VLD are affected by low cigs and vsbys down to IFR/LIFR while some mid clouds have pushed into our western zones and have kept ECP/DHN from crashing down to IFR. Removed mention from these two TAFs while keeping degraded flight conds at the other three terminals through 15Z. Afterwards, expect VFR to prevail through the evening hours. Overnight, fog/stratus once again will develop from ECP/TLH eastward. Towards DHN, a few showers are possible late in the period with the approach of a cold front. IFR cigs will be tied to the inbound cold front. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Tranquil boating conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of this week with winds becoming easterly/southeasterly by this afternoon. On Sunday, a cold front will push through during the day. Strong to near Gale sustained northerly winds with gale force wind gusts are expected for Sunday night into Monday morning with seas around 8 feet in our offshore waters. Conditions will then begin to relax late Monday heading into Tuesday with more favorable boating conditions returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Low dispersions are expected area-wide this afternoon. A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday, increasing transport winds to 20-25 mph from the north and dispersions into a moderate range. Ahead of the front, there is about a 40% chance for showers in our SE Alabama districts. Freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night and Monday night with northerly transwinds around 20 mph Sunday night. Dew points will fall into the single digits and teens for Monday, resulting in MinRH values between 20 and 30 percent for much of the region in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A strong cold front brings a 10 to 40 percent chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the highest chances across Southeastern Alabama. However, there are no flooding concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 49 67 30 / 0 0 20 0 Panama City 71 55 67 31 / 0 10 20 0 Dothan 72 51 61 26 / 0 40 20 0 Albany 69 51 60 25 / 0 30 20 0 Valdosta 72 47 67 26 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 74 48 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 55 68 35 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ013-016>019-027-326-426. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ125-129- 144>148-159>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254371 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 745 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 740 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Generally dry and seasonable weather through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will spread from south to north tonight and early Sunday, with best chances of rain over metro SE Florida. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible. - High risk of rip currents until later tonight for all Atlantic beaches. && .UPDATE... Issued at 740 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A mostly clear and dry start to this Saturday across South Florida, and this should hold for a good part of the day before moisture and rainfall arrive tonight. Current satellite imagery shows two mid-level shortwave troughs, one over the western Gulf of America, and another over the far NW Caribbean Sea. These shortwaves will move E/NE and approach South Florida tonight. In response, moisture will surge northward across the region as low level winds will turn SE/S and drag the old frontal boundary over Cuba north into the Straits of Florida and far southern peninsula overnight. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values around 1 inch early this morning will rapidly increase to around 1.5 to 1.8 inches over Miami-Dade and Broward counties tonight, and 1.1 to 1.4 inches elsewhere. As alluded to above, forcing from the shortwaves as well as the right entrance region of an upper jet across Central Florida enhancing lift, significant moisture advection, and influence of the surface frontal system all point to a wet and potentially stormy night for a good part of South Florida. Current timing of the most likely onset of widespread measurable precipitation is between 10 PM and Midnight across Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and from Midnight to 5 AM across the rest of South Florida (later as you approach the Lake Okeechobee area). Highest rain chances are across SE Florida in closer proximity to the higher moisture and front. Consensus of global and short- range models indicate most likely widespread rain amounts anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 inches (highest SE Florida) between 7 PM tonight and 7 AM Sunday. However, this same model guidance also shows reasonable high-end amounts of 1-2 inches over parts of metro Miami-Dade and Broward counties with even higher localized amounts of at least 2-4 inches not totally out of the question as indicated by LPMM. Potential impacts we`ll be watching for are localized heavy rainfall leading to flooding, as well as a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds. Most likely areas where these could occur are over metro SE Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Model solutions and latest WPC sfc analyses show a rather long frontal boundary stretching across the south and east states, with its parent low north of the Great Lakes. Closer to home, a ridge over the western Atlantic is extending into central Florida, keeping generally dry and pleasant weather conditions in place through this afternoon. 00Z MFL sounding shows a similar atmospheric profile as yesterday, with a solid inversion around 850 mb and a very dry air mass through 9 km, and PWATs around 0.8 inches. By the late afternoon/early evening hours, a lingering decaying frontal boundary over the Fl keys will begin to lift north and dragging moisture into SoFlo. Meanwhile, ensembles show the aforementioned low north of the Great Lakes migrating east and dragging the associated sfc boundary into the SE states and northern Florida. This will weaken the ridge and allow for additional moisture to push northward across SoFlo. POPs gradually increase from south to north, with up to 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight/morning hours Sunday. Highest POPs will reside south of I-75 along the Atlantic metro areas where the best pool of moisture will reside. Main hazards will be localized heavy rain, thunderstorm wind gusts and lightning strikes. Can`t rule out a few strong thunderstorms during the overnight hours. The front impacts should be short-lived as reinforcing high pressure quickly follows and by Sunday evening another shot of robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo. Afternoon highs warm up a bit today with upper 70s to low 80s across SoFlo, warmest over the west coast. Coldest temps will remain around the Lake region and interior areas with Sunday morning lows in the low-mid 60s, and upper 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through about 00z-02z, then followed by increasing periods of MVFR as SHRA/TSRA spread north across South Florida through the remainder of the forecast period. Brief IFR conditions are becoming more likely during the 04z-12z time frame, mainly in association with the SHRA/TSRA along the MIA- FLL-PBI corridor. Winds mainly 090-100 degrees at 10-12 knots, turning to 140-170 degrees at 8-10 knots after 03z, with higher gusts in and near SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form. && .BEACHES... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 69 81 65 / 20 70 50 20 West Kendall 81 65 82 62 / 20 70 50 10 Opa-Locka 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 Homestead 81 68 81 64 / 30 70 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 81 65 / 10 70 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 81 66 / 10 70 50 20 Pembroke Pines 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 West Palm Beach 79 68 81 65 / 0 60 40 20 Boca Raton 81 68 82 65 / 10 60 50 20 Naples 82 66 81 59 / 10 50 30 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254370 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 555 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 550 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog may develop this morning across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. Additionally, there is a low chance for sea fog to develop and linger throughout the day on Saturday across portions of coastal Alabama. - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will likely become necessary. - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 An upper-level trough is expected to dig southeastward throughout the weekend. As it does so, it will help to push a strong cold front through the area on Sunday. Prior to the passage of the front, high pressure to our east will keep a light onshore flow pattern in place through tonight. This will give way to a rather mild and humid day today, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. The biggest forecast challenge over the next few hours is the possibility of fog developing. Although the environment is primed for fog to develop prior to sunrise (dew points increased into the mid to upper 50s, light winds, and subsidence from the nearby high), a deck of mid-level clouds is currently streaming across the local region, helping to prevent fog from developing as of 1am. Looking at satellite and obs over south central Mississippi, it seems like the cloud deck is slowly starting to erode, and underneath these cloud breaks are where obs are beginning to report dense fog. We will keep an eye on this throughout the remainder of the overnight hours. As of issuance time, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for coastal counties, as well as Stone and George counties. If clouds continue to erode and fog begins to develop over interior counties, then we will likely need to expand the advisory northward. Although fog should dissipate after sunrise for most areas, HREF probabilities do continue to keep a low potential for sea fog to develop and stick around throughout the day on Saturday over portions of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi sound, and surrounding areas. Additionally, another round of fog may develop later tonight/early Sunday morning prior to the passage of the front, primarily over coastal counties. Outside of fog potential, rain chances will be on the increase this afternoon and especially as we get into tonight due to moisture pooling out ahead of the front and weak forcing. Rain will likely start off as light, warm air advection showers this afternoon, transitioning to a broken line of light to moderate rainfall by the overnight hours. No thunderstorms are expected due to a lack of instability. We dry out by mid-Sunday morning as the cold front sweeps through. We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for Sunday night and into Monday as an arctic high pressure system builds in behind the front. With the front likely moving through during the morning hours on Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day as strong cold air advection commences. Lows Sunday night are expected to plummet down to the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. Factoring in breezy conditions likely continuing through Sunday night due to a tight pressure gradient, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 9-15 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we will likely reach our Cold Weather Advisory criteria for Sunday night across the entire area, although it should be noted that several areas now are flirting with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Regardless of which product ultimately gets issued, residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Low rain chances may also return to the area by late week. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Widely varying visibilities this morning as dense fog settles into areas void of cloud cover. Areas where fog has developed are seeing VLIFR visibility with VFR visibility where there is no fog. Fog will continue to develop in pockets across the area through the pre-dawn hours before lifting by 14z. VFR conditions return through the remainder of the day. Isolated rain showers are possible by late afternoon at the terminals. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. We will have to monitor for the potential of sea fog developing this morning and lingering through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over the Gulf waters. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 48 60 23 / 20 50 30 0 Pensacola 72 53 63 28 / 10 40 30 0 Destin 71 55 64 31 / 10 30 30 0 Evergreen 72 43 56 21 / 20 60 20 0 Waynesboro 69 40 51 19 / 30 70 10 0 Camden 68 40 51 19 / 20 70 10 0 Crestview 73 49 60 22 / 10 40 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ078-079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254369 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 549 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Dense Fog possible across the area early this morning, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9AM. - The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area Sunday night into Monday morning. - Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected Sunday into Monday after a strong cold front moves through. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The immediate concern of the short term period is the potential for dense fog across the area tonight. With more than one model showing decent probabilities overnight and the moisture and light winds making for a good environment, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire area through 9AM Saturday. Weak high pressure at the surface will start to break down heading into the weekend as our next system approaches. In the upper levels a quick shortwave moves across the region, while a deep trough moves across the Midwest. Back at the surface a strong cold front associated with the Midwestern trough will creep down towards our area, likely making it through the coast by Sunday afternoon. We will already start to see the effects of this cold front in the Sunday high temperatures. The MaxT`s for Sunday will actually more than likely happen in the morning rather than the afternoon because the front will already be pushing through most areas during the "normal" daytime high time. By afternoon we start to see temperatures rapidly decrease across the area, into the 30s by late evening. In terms of precipitation, the best chance for rain is looking to be late Saturday night into early Sunday with most areas seeing a 50-60% chance of rain, but far northern areas see closer to a 70-80% chance. Looking at QPF this should be a pretty light rain with most areas seeing less than a half inch of rain. The main threat of the short term comes Sunday night into early Monday with the cold air rushing in. MinTs are sitting in the low to mid 20s for everywhere north of the lake and the low 30s south of the lake. On top of the air temperature being cold, we will also have breezy winds gusting 15-20mph overnight which brings Wind Chills into the teens for northern areas and the low to mid 20s for southern areas. Made some adjustments to the drainage areas as those tend to cool more. That being said, everything right now would be well into Cold Weather Advisory criteria and some areas along the northshore and Coastal MS would be hovering around Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Knowing this, expect cold weather headlines Monday morning but exactly which ones is still uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Following the cold snap early Monday morning, we warm up into the upper 40s to lower 50s for afternoon highs. After the cold front passes, we see riding start to build to our west and move its way westward. Throughout early week this ridge will move closer to the central Gulf Coast region. This helps us warm right back up after out cold spell, with Tuesday Max T`s already back into the 60s for most areas and Wednesday will already be near the 70 degree mark for most. After the rain associated with the big cold front, we don`t see any notable rain chances again through the rest of the long term period. Very minor chances on Thursday, but only ~15-20%. Winds turn back onshore by Tuesday which will push some moisture back into the area and that may aid in some fog development some mornings next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A few showers near KMCB this morning. A wide range of conditions, from VFR to VLIFR, with KBTR and KHUM near field minima at issuance time. The very low conditions should improve by mid- morning, with most or all terminals MVFR to VFR by about 16z. Don`t expect much in the way of precipitation during most of the daytime hours. Cold front will approach from the northwest overnight tonight, likely passing through the area between 06z and 12z, accompanied by SHRA near and behind the front for a few hours. Could also have a brief period of fog just ahead of the front, with the most likely candidate KHUM. Gusty north winds, possibly with gusts 25 knots or higher, behind the front, could onset at the New Orleans terminals (KNEW/KMSY) by 12z Sunday. All terminals are likely to experience 15G25KT or higher during much of the daytime hours on Sunday. Most or all terminals should be P6SM SKC by 18z Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Light onshore winds of 10 knots or less and calm seas of 2 feet or less will persist over the waters through Saturday as a broad area of high pressure remains centered over the region. A rapid change in conditions will then take place Saturday night and Sunday morning as a very strong cold front moves through. Winds will turn northerly and increase in speed to between 25 and 30 knots with higher gusts from mid day Sunday through Monday morning. There is a decent probability that headlines will be issued for the waters over this time period due to high winds and rough seas anticipated. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 42 50 21 / 40 80 20 0 BTR 76 46 55 23 / 20 70 30 0 ASD 74 48 59 22 / 10 50 20 0 MSY 76 53 61 32 / 10 50 30 0 GPT 71 49 62 26 / 20 50 30 0 PQL 73 47 60 19 / 10 40 30 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254368 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 647 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today, then an arctic cold front will sweep through Sunday. Dry high pressure will then rebuild into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a zonal west-southwest flow will prevail across the Southeast United States in advance of a large trough digging across the North-Central United States and Midwest. At the sfc, dry high pressure will dominate the pattern, resulting in a light southwest wind and warmer conditions under sunny/mostly sunny skies. In general, high temps should range in the mid-upper 60s across Southeast South Carolina and around 70 degrees across Southeast Georgia. Should these temps occur, it will be the warmest day experienced in the month of December thus far. Tonight: Aloft, a zonal flow prevails for much of the night in advance of the digging trough across the Midwest. At the sfc, the Atlantic high will extend across the Southeast, while some troughing develops north and inland overnight. Although the pressure gradient remains modest between these features, conditions will remain noticeably more mild than the previous night while a light southwesterly wind advects warmer air into the region well in advance of a cold front arriving the next day. In general, lows should only dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s, remaining warmest along the coast. Some guidance even hints at the potential for some patchy fog late as sfc dewpts increase. However, the arrival of some clouds along with a few showers entering from the west should limit the coverage of fog late night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Bitter Cold Temperatures expected much of this period... Sunday: A strong/arctic cold front is still shown by all models to push through the region between late Sunday morning and early/mid Sunday afternoon. High temperatures of 60-65 will likely be reached just ahead of the front through early afternoon, then begin falling through the 50s during the afternoon behind the front. Latest blended guidance has increased PoPs to low end chance levels over much of our SC zones, and 15-24% for much of our GA zones. Any precip. along and ahead of the front will be in the form of showers, since it will be too warm at that time for any frozen precip.. QPF values are expected to be generally less than 0.10 inch. West- southwest winds in the morning, will veer sharply to northwest and increase behind the front by afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible. By Sunday night, a strong arctic surface ridge will build from the northwest, keeping northwest to north winds through the night. Temperatures expected to drop into the upper teens well inland, and lower to mid 20s else where, warmest near the coast. Wind chill values all areas expected to reach Cold Weather Advisory levels /20 degrees to 11 degrees/ all areas, and could dip to 10 degrees or colder over portions of the northern area, where we currently have a Extreme Cold Watch in place. Monday: Deep ridging is shown by all models to settle over the region, with lighter winds and mostly sunny/sunny skies. Despite full sun, guidance continues to hold high temperatures to 40 to 45, 15 to 20 degrees below normal! Monday night, high pressure will start centered over the region, then slowly shift offshore by late night. Light winds, clear skies and dry low levels should allow for strong radiational cooling. Very cold temperatures again expected, with lows around 20 well inland, to the mid 20s to near 30 closer to the coast. Tuesday: This period begins the moderation in temperatures, with the surface ridge shifting further offshore, allowing for low level winds to veer to southwest by afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, highs rebounding into the 50s all areas, which is still a tad below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... All global and blended model solutions show that the large scale/synoptic pattern shifts to zonal, with moderating temperatures through the period. Tuesday night will be the coldest period, with freezing temperatures again expected inland, and mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. Then Wednesday through Saturday, temperatures continue to warm, with temperatures near normal on Wednesday, to above normal Thursday through Saturday. The biggest forecast issue for this period will be how to handle the model differences with chances for precip. late in the period. Some models indicate the potential for another cold front to approach the area later Thursday and early Friday, but timing and amount of deep layer moisture vary between models. For now, the blended model solution brings back slight chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night. This will likely need adjusting with later forecasts. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Sunday through mid week. However, a strong arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with gusty winds Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the day and night, leading to quiet marine conditions across local waters today, but a noticeable uptick in wind speeds as a modest pressure gradient develops late night. In general, south- southwest winds should top out around 10 kt today, then increase to 10-15 kt this evening. A few wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible across northern South Carolina waters and outer Georgia waters late night. Seas will range between 1-2 ft today, then build about a foot overnight. ...Hazardous Marine Conditions later Sunday into Monday... A strong arctic cold front will move through the waters on Sunday, likely passing through the entire region by late afternoon. Southwest winds will veer sharply to northwest during Sunday afternoon, increasing to high end SCA levels, to possibly low end Gale conditions, especially for AMZ350 and AMZ374. Hazardous conditions, especially for seas, are expected to remain through later Monday, especially beyond 20 nm offshore. Winds and seas are expected to fall below any highlight levels Tuesday through Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GAZ087-088. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ040-042>045-050-052. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ047>049-051. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1254367 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 642 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mild conditions today and tonight ahead of an arctic cold front Sunday morning. Ahead of the front light showers will move across the region. Unseasonably cold temperatures arrive Sunday night and linger through Monday night. Temperatures will gradually warm up next week as high pressure moves overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sill remaining under the longwave upper troff this period. Sfc high overhead this morning, will slide off the Carolina Coasts later this morning. This will leave a rather weak sfc pg across Southeast NC and Northeast SC, under mainly clear skies. The upper trof to amplify later today thru tonight, forcing the nearly 1050 mb arctic high S and SE ward. By the end of this period, later tonight, the Arctic high will be on the doorsteps of the FA along with the Arctic front. Increasing moisture, mainly during the pre-dawn Sun hrs, will result in clouds increasing and the threat for pcpn mainly far NW portions of the ILM CWA. Look for increasing temps this period that should actually run slightly above normal for this time of the year. Normal is generally in the mid to upper 50s for maxes and lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the short term will be the unseasonably cold air, the coldest of this young season in fact. Strong cold front on the doorstep Sun morning which surges across the area and offshore by midday. Ahead of the front a narrow, but deep, stream of moisture will push precipitable water over 200% of normal. Low level convergence and limited dynamical forcing as weak low moves along the front should lead to a swath of showers moving across the forecast area during the morning. Widely scattered showers will likely be ongoing across the western half of the area at daybreak Sun. Strong cold advection will lead to temperatures falling through the day, even as skies clear out behind the front. Highs will occur in the morning, making the high temp forecast tricky. Most areas will end up within sight of normal, but Sun morning is the last time temperatures will be within shouting distance of normal until the middle of next week, maybe. 850mb temperatures drop from 6 to 8C Sun morning to -6 to -10C just 12 hours later. Winds will be gusty Sun afternoon as the cold air announces its arrival, leading to a very raw day. Lows Sun night will approach records with mid teens across the area. However, the bigger concern will be the wind chill. Values will drop under 10 degrees in some areas. Cold advection ends by Mon morning, with even a hint of some warm advection later in the day. Not that it will do much against the dense cold air. Highs Mon end up right around 40, or just below it. Lows Mon night in the low to mid 20s with much less wind making it feel almost 20 degrees warmer than the night before. As moist as the pre-frontal air is, the post front air mass will be extremely dry. Precipitable water drops to 10% of normal by Sun evening, under 0.10". Slight uptick in moisture for Mon with pwat around 0.20". The lack of moisture will keep skies clear through Mon night once clouds clear out in the post front regime. Afternoon humidity will drop to near 20% Mon afternoon and wouldn`t be shocked to see values dip into the teens. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Arctic high from the beginning of the week will be overhead Tue morning. Temperatures will climb close to 30 degrees by afternoon, although highs will still fall several degrees short of normal. Weak warm advection continues through Thu with highs back near normal Wed and above normal Thu. Although low level moisture makes a quick return, dry air aloft hangs around through Wed night. Another cold front approaches from the northwest later Thu, bringing with it some scattered showers. The front end the week is the polar opposite of the one that starts the week. The incoming air mass has its origins in the Pacific Maritimes, not Arctic Canada. Much less cold air and little to no dry air. Temperatures will drop a bit Fri and Fri night, but the region will still be at or just above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail thru atleast 06Z Sun with the prevailing 6 hrs there-after to 12Z under the umbrella of potential MVFR conditions from ceilings/vsby associated with light rain ahead of an approaching Arctic front. Otherwise, looking at occasional thin/opaque cirrus during Sat aftn and evening, followed by ceilings slowly dropping thru the pre-dawn Sun hrs. Sfc high to push off the Carolina coasts today allowing winds to become SSW-SW around 6 kt thru this evening, then increasing to near 10 kt at all terminals during the 06Z-12Z time-line. Extended Outlook...Low level wind shear remains possible late tonight. Surface wind gusts over 30 knots are possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in the wake of a strong arctic cold frontal passage. Otherwise VFR conditions should continue through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Expect Light and variable (will identify a best direction in lieu of going variable) winds during the pre- dawn hrs into daylight Sat. The sfc high will slide off the Carolina Coasts later today, resulting in winds becoming SW 5 to 10 kt. As the Arctic front approaches the waters from the NW, look for SW winds to increase to possibly SCA levels late tonight. Seas will follow suit, at their lowest at the start of this period, building as sfc winds increase. Majority of the seas will result from short period wind waves. An underlying but small SE ground swell to remain present and accounted for. Sunday through Wednesday... Strong cold front moves across the waters around midday Sun with offshore flow ramping up late Sun and Sun night as cold air surges into the region. Borderline SCA/Gale event, holding off for now on issuance of any headlines given the uncertainty/low confidence. Do have high confidence of almost 24 hours of nasty marine conditions, late Sun through midday Mon. However, once speeds drop under 10 kt Mon evening winds will remain 10 kt or less through Wed. Seas are quick to ramp up to 4-7 ft late Sun into Mon, but then rapidly fall later Mon, ending up 2-3 ft Mon night. A northerly wind wave will be the dominant wave Sun night and Mon. Seas 2 ft or less Tue and Wed with a weak southeast swell being dominant. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1254366 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 531 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of dense fog, both inland and marine, expected tonight into Saturday morning. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect. - Fairly strong cold front, and associated scattered showers/storms in advance, will pass through Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Near to below freezing temperatures expected north of I-10 Sunday night into Monday morning. - Warming trend going into the middle of next week with temperatures back into the 70s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning. Woah...even the first sentence has been obscured by the fog! Speaking of that, visibilities began to decrease as early as 8pm with Angleton reporting in quarter-mile visibility just before 8:30pm. On top of the elevated low level moisture and light winds overnight, there were a few scattered showers earlier this afternoon south of I-10. This typically results in even more favorable environment for dense fog. The fog is expected to be at its most dense in the few hours leading up to sunrise and an hour or so afterwards (generally 4am- 8am). If you have plans to hit the roadway on Saturday morning, be sure to take extra precautions to travel safely. Moisture continues to increase as onshore flow persists along with convergence along an approaching cold front leading to continuous chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shower/storm chances will be at their highest as the cold front pushes through Southeast Texas. Additionally, another round of dense fog is likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning until the front pushes through. The general timeframe for FROPA looks to be entering the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods around midnight (early Sunday morning) and near the coast or offshore by sunrise. Once the front pushes offshore, our attention shifts from the fog and the rain to cold temperatures. Saturday`s high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s and that`ll follow a typical diurnal pattern. Sunday, on the other hand, will be where the high temperature occurs before sunrise for most locations due to the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will hover around the mid 50s to low 60s throughout the day on Sunday along with breezy northeasterly winds...so your weather app showing a high temperature in the mid to upper 60s will be a bit misleading. Our attention then turns to Sunday night into Monday morning where near to below freezing temperatures are anticipated across most of Southeast Texas. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. Houston County (not the city) could flirt with a brief hard freeze. For what it`s worth, deterministic model guidance came in a little bit colder and brings below freezing temperatures down to northern portions of Harris County. The big question is will we see freezing temperatures in the Houston metro area. The answer is...maybe! The latest NBM probabilities reflect a 30-45% probability for below freezing temperatures in the City of Houston. Either way, it`s going to be cold, so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep yourselves and your loved ones safe. Remember to protect the four P`s: People, Pets, Plants, Pipes (Pipes: mainly for those in the Piney Woods). Freeze Warnings (for counties that haven`t had their seasonal Freeze Warning yet) are likely, and we`ll at least be near Cold Weather Advisory territory with wind chill values ranging from the low to upper 20s across the area. High temperatures on Monday will only top out in the low to mid 50s. Monday will be mostly sunny, but cloud cover is expected to gradually increase from west to east late in the day as PVA increases along with increasing low level moisture. Onshore flow fully returns by Tuesday, which takes us on a warming trend through the end of the work week. High temperatures look to reach back into the 70s by Wednesday and we could be flirting with highs in the 80s on Thursday. From one extreme to the other in just a few days...that`s the Southeast Texas way! Rain chances return around midweek as well as a shortwave trough pushes through the area. This may also result in another FROPA towards the end of the work week, but it`s way too early to lock it in. Very Early Christmas Outlook ---------------------------- Christmas is less than two weeks away and I`m sure some of you have already seen what the long range model guidance trend has been indicating for weather in Southeast Texas. Santa...you`ll want to listen in on this too! The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day temperature outlook was updated today (or yesterday depending on when you`re reading this) which is valid for December 20-26. It shows a LOT of red across the CONUS and would you believe it that the reddest of the reds is right over Southeast Texas?! That means that there`s a greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures for this period...which just so happens to include Christmas Eve/Day. Normal temperatures for this time of year is high temperatures in the low 60s and low temperatures in the low 40s...so there`s a 90+% probability that our temperatures will be above that. Naturally your next question will be, well just how warm will it be? My answer is...I don`t know! It`s way too early to know exactly what the temperatures will be, but this time next week we`ll at least have a general idea. The most prominent colors are red and green. We have the red for very likely above normal temperatures, but do we have the green to go along with it on the precipitation outlook? Survey says....nope. How does a nice tan sound? Maybe if you look at it long enough it can kind of pass as gold...but yes Southeast Texas has slightly higher probabilities of seeing below normal precipitation for the week of Christmas. This probability is only ~37%, so there`s still ~30% probabilities of seeing near normal to above normal precipitation. Long story short, this one`s quite a bit more uncertain than the temperature outlook. I had been wishing for a repeat of the Christmas miracle of 2004, but sadly the chances of a white Christmas in Southeast TX are slim to none. I mean we could still have fog, but it`s not the same :( TL;DR: Christmas is very likely to feature above normal temperatures. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are being seen north of I-10 this morning with fog bringing visibility down to 1/2mi or less with CIGs below 500ft. Areas south of I-10 are MVFR to VFR with occasional periods of dense fog bringing conditions down to IFR. The fog should dissipate by the mid-morning with VFR conditions prevailing through this evening with south-southeasterly winds around 5-9kt. Isolated showers will be possible this morning with increasing coverage (and an isolated thunderstorm) expected this afternoon. A cold front will move through the region tonight, bringing another round of showers ahead of and along the front itself. Winds will become light/variable for a few hours ahead of the FROPA, which combined with the high moisture will lead to the redevelopment of dense fog returning late this evening into tonight. Once the front pushes through, winds will turn northerly but lingering fog and low CIGs (down to 500-700ft) will persist through Sunday morning. FROPA will occur at CLL around 5-7z, IAH between 8-10z, and then off the coast by 9-12z. Breezy north- northeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the afternoon on Sunday with gradually clearing skies. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The initial marine concern will be reduced visibility due to sea fog and inland fog spilling into the upper bays. Model guidance indicated the potential for widespread dense fog overnight into Saturday morning followed by another round Saturday night into early Sunday morning until a cold front pushes through. Outside of the fog, light southeasterly winds, 1-3 ft seas, and chances for scattered showers are expected through Saturday night. The cold front looks to be near or off the coast by sunrise on Sunday morning with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas in its wake through Monday morning. Gale force gusts will be possible over the Gulf waters throughout the day on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed Sunday morning through Monday morning, and we`ll continue to monitor model trends for any abnormally low water potential in the bays. Winds and seas gradually subside throughout the day on Monday with onshore flow returning Monday night. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 51 57 31 / 20 30 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 56 63 33 / 30 40 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 58 65 39 / 20 60 30 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335. && $$ |
| #1254365 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 539 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday - Dense fog expected tonight into tomorrow morning - Low to medium chance for rain this weekend ahead of Sunday cold front && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 One more warm day is expected Saturday before our next cold front arrives late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures in the wake of the front will cool to near to below normal Sunday through Tuesday. Unfortunately, another warming trend will begin Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week with above normal temperatures. As moisture continues to increase with southerly flow, another night of dense fog is expected tonight from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads. Apart from the low chance (20- 25%) for a few streamer showers this morning, Saturday will remain relatively dry with rain chances increasing Sunday to low to medium (25-55%) levels with the frontal passage. Rain chances for next week are looking bleak at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Areas of fog and dense fog with IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through 13-15Z. Conditions improve to VFR by mid morning and continues through the remainder of the day. A few weak showers currently on radar are moving north from CRP to VCT. There is a 20-30% chance of -RA/-SHRA, mainly this morning into early afternoon across the VCT TAF site. Another round of fog is expected tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The frontal boundary is expected to move across S TX early Sunday morning, but the colder and windier conditions will be lagging behind by a couple of hours beyond the TAF period. The chance of showers increases toward sunrise Sunday morning and continues after 12Z Sunday for a few hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A gentle southeast flow is expected to continue through Saturday night before our next cold front swings through and shifts winds to the northeast and strengthening to a fresh to strong (BF 5-6) breeze. Winds will remain elevated through Sunday night before weakening to a moderate breeze Monday. Medium (40-70%) rain chances are expected Saturday through Sunday as our next cold front approaches and swings through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 62 70 44 / 20 20 30 0 Victoria 80 55 66 34 / 30 20 10 0 Laredo 81 61 70 49 / 0 10 60 10 Alice 82 59 70 43 / 20 20 30 0 Rockport 75 60 68 44 / 30 20 20 0 Cotulla 80 57 65 43 / 0 10 20 0 Kingsville 82 61 71 45 / 20 10 30 0 Navy Corpus 74 64 69 49 / 30 20 30 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ230>234- 240>247-342>347-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254364 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 528 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 * Fog, mist, low stratus possible again tonight. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week. * Our next best chance for rain will be on Sunday in response to a cold front; medium (40-60%) chances on Sunday. * Another chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are expected to develop on && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will continue to consist of warmer than normal temps with a couple chances for rain, though there will be many rain-free hours. Tonight will be similar to last night as far as the potential for fog, mist, and/or low stratus development. However, the thickness and coverage of any fog is not expected to be as great as last night due to slightly wider dewpoint depressions and the potential for some clouds to develop later tonight. The HREF model is indicating a general low-medium (30-60%) chance/risk for fog/mist developing across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Otherwise, expect for a quiet night under mostly clear skies and milder than normal temperatures. As highlighted earlier, much of the forecast period will be dry/rain- free. However, Sunday will feature our next best and widespread chance for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to develop. Forecast models/ensembles continue to advertise a strong southward advancing cold front approaching the region on Sunday. This cold front is associated with an Arctic 1040-1045 mb sfc high pressure system that will be established over the Midwest U.S. As this happens, the combination of increased sfc convergence and a nearby weak shortwave trough will increase the prospects for showers (maybe an isolated thunder or two) to develop over the region on Sunday. We`ve maintained medium (40-60%) chances for showers across Deep South Texas on Sunday. Rain chances diminish from north to south as the cold front sweeps through the region and shifts into northeastern Mexico Sunday evening/night. Tuesday night into Wednesday is another period that we have to monitor for the potential for showers and thunderstorms. During this time period, a return flow out of the south on the backside of a broad sfc high pressure system centered over the Southeastern U.S. will result in increased moisture and warm air advection (WAA). Increased atmospheric moisture content interacting with a nearby shortwave trough or weak frontal boundary will result in increased prospects for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Currently, we only have low grade (20-30%) PoPs along and east of IH-69E. Again, we will continue to monitor these trends in the days ahead. Through the middle parts of next week, an up, down, up (roller- coaster) temperature pattern will take place. However, late next week into next weekend, the cold and wintry weather across the northern U.S. begins to retreat northward into Canada as flat ridging (low amplitude 500 mb pattern) envelopes a vast majority of the Lower 48, marking a major large scale weather pattern change towards the milder, less wintry side. For us here in Deep South Texas, this means a stabilized, warmer than normal pattern will solidly be in place with less risk of cool frontal passages and less fluctuations in temperatures. Overall, temps will average out warmer than normal for the balance of the forecast period with daytime highs in the 80s most locations each day except for Sunday through Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday, high temperatures will top out in the 70s most places (lower 80s along parts of the RGV). Monday is progged to be the coolest day of the forecast period with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s. Finally, on Tuesday, temperatures will begin to moderate as daytime highs are expected to climb back into the 70s most places. Wednesday through at least next Saturday, above normal temperatures will be driven by a 585-588 mb ridge. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s during the forecast period. Sunday night into Monday will be the coolest with overnight lows in the 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and 50s along the RGV. Monday night into Tuesday, overnight lows will be in the 50s most places. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 LIFR conditions are prevailing at the aerodromes right now, likely the result of MIFG, as observational cameras provided by TXDOT show the fog to be highly localized. After sunrise, VFR will be in place until a re-formation of fog occurs after sunset tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas will persist through Saturday night. On Sunday, marine conditions deteriorate with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions developing in response the aforementioned cold front. These conditions will persist through Monday/Monday evening before showing some improvements and a return to low to moderate seas and winds. There will be near day- to-day chances for showers and storms over the Gulf Waters tonight through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 68 80 58 / 10 10 60 30 HARLINGEN 84 63 77 52 / 10 10 50 20 MCALLEN 85 67 79 53 / 10 10 60 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 65 77 51 / 0 10 70 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 69 74 61 / 30 10 70 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 65 77 57 / 20 10 60 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1254363 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 628 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week. -Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected through today. For tonight, a front moving northward will bring a chance for rain along with reduced cigs/vsbys for KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW starting around 09Z and continuing through tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure overhead is allowing clear skies, calm winds, and cool weather this morning. Temperatures will be warming up quickly this afternoon as highs near 80 degrees. As we head into the overnight period the cold front that pushed through Thursday morning will start to lift north over South Florida. This will result in some isolated showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Florida. The increase moisture will also help to develop fog in most places Sunday morning. However, the cold front will already start to get pushed south once again by Sunday afternoon as a different cold front start to push into the Southeast. This second cold front will push through Sunday night bringing much cooler conditions to start our next work week. Highs on Monday will stay in the 60`s for most of with breezy conditions out of the north. The coldest morning will be on Tuesday with 30`s and 40`s north of I-4 and 50`s south. Temperatures will start to trend upward Wednesday through Friday as high pressure starts to move off the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic. Widespread 80`s for highs will return by Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Winds will remain out of the east between 5 to 10 knots on Saturday. By Sunday we will see a cold front push the Gulf. As the cold front passes winds will quickly shift north and increase to 20 to 25 knots by Sunday night. These hazardous boating conditions will continue throughout the day on Monday but the pressure gradient should start to loosen by Monday night. This will result in winds coming down to 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday and coming down even farther to 5 to 10 knots by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moisture will slowly start to return today as the cold front that pushed through on Thursday will start to lift north again. Min RH during the weekend will be in the 50`s. A cold front will start to push through Sunday night bringing breezy conditions on Monday. RHs will dip slightly but stay above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 62 78 50 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 81 65 81 56 / 0 30 20 0 GIF 78 61 80 50 / 0 10 10 0 SRQ 79 62 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 BKV 78 53 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 64 76 54 / 0 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1254362 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 634 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - A little warmer today with dry conditions continuing. Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds at times. - The next cold front will push through during Sunday but will come through mostly dry. Scattered showers and a storm or two will affect Treasure coast/Okeechobee. - Breezy to windy conditions develop Sunday evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds in behind the front. These winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions Sun night/Mon, with high surf and beach erosion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today/tonight...High pressure ridge axis draped across north central FL will weaken and push seaward. Dry conditions persist today with light winds turning onshore in a sea breeze around 10 mph south of the Cape. There will be some increase in high clouds filtering the sun at times as well as some fair weather cumulus. Max temps will warm into the mid and upper 70s, slightly above normal for mid Dec. Tonight, moisture lifts northward from south FL. Along with considerable cloudiness there will be scattered showers and possibly a storm or two after midnight lifting northward into Okeechobee and Treasure coast counties. Across northern sections, there is a better chance for fog across Volusia county, spreading southward toward metro Orlando. Sun-Mon...Ongoing showers across southern sections Sun morning will move NE and offshore onto the Atlc as a cold front pushes steadily southward across the area during the day. A NW breeze will develop initially behind the front. Then strong high pressure (1040mb) over the central US builds SE into FL and tightens the NW-N pressure gradient late Sun and esp Sun night. This will result in a period of windy conditions along the coast with Wind Advisories likely Sun night into early Monday. While it will become noticeably cooler with max temps holding in the 60s on Monday, because the winds turn onshore so quickly, the cold continental airmass will rapidly modify over EC FL sparing us any freeze concerns. These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion Sun night into Mon. Fortunately the duration will be very short as the high pressure weakens steadily as it reaches the Carolina coast late Mon. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. A High Surf Advisory may be needed for breaking waves of 7-9 FT. Tue-Fri...The high pressure will shift eastward over the Atlc. A trailing ridge axis will remain near 30N lat so a general easterly flow will dominate Tue-Wed at 10-15 mph veering SE Thu 10 mph. The next cold front is forecast to approach Fri but lack of moisture looks to limit rain chances. Temperatures will undergo a warming trend each day reaching the upper 70s/near 80 Thu (mid 70s coastal Volusia). Lows will generally be in the 50s, holding in the lower 60s along the coast by Thu morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure ridge across the northern (Volusia) waters will produce favorable boating conditions again today. Light and variable winds will turn northeast to east up to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and up to 3 FT offshore Treasure coast. Scattered showers and a few storms will lift north into the southern (Treasure coast) waters tonight and Sun ahead of a cold front. This next front will sweep across the waters during Sunday with a NW wind shift. Winds will increase out of the north late Sunday and Sunday night as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind the cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20-30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore (up to 10 FT nearshore Volusia) and up to 13 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and 10-15 KT Tue as pressure gradient eases. High pressure pushes out to sea Wed and winds veer Easterly remaining 10-15 KT. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with seas falling below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream late in the day. Seas Wed 3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 615 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions forecast at all ECFL airports through around 08Z tonight, then fog or showers (hopefully not both) expected to impact most if not all terminals. Some mid-upper level cloud cover starting to obscure satellite imagery, but based on satellite, obs, and traffic cameras, little if any fog other than some MIFG has developed so far this morning, and the window of opportunity will close by 13Z. Light/VRB winds this morning shift ESE-SE 5-10 kts, highest along the southern coast where some gusts to 15-20 kts can`t be ruled out in the afternoon, then becoming light/VRB again after 23Z. Pretty good agreement for at least MVFR VIS impacts from fog at northern terminals including KMCO tonight after 08Z, with currently low (10-20%) chances for IFR-LIFR reductions. While chances for fog are lower at KSUA-KFPR, showers and possibly lightning storms are forecast to lift INVOF those terminals after 04Z. KMLB finds itself in between these two impacts, with modest chances (around 20%) for MVFR VIS reductions and low chances (around 10%) for showers to reach that far north. Fog should clear by 14Z Sunday at the latest, but rain chances will linger at KSUA-KVRB through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 77 60 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 MLB 77 61 78 57 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 77 61 79 59 / 0 20 30 10 LEE 76 57 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 77 58 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 77 59 78 50 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 78 61 79 59 / 0 30 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1254361 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 628 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure slides through today. A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sat...Heights/thicknesses rise ahead of a strong cold front as swrly winds inc today. This will bring much warmer conditions (briefly) with highs expected to reach the 60s inland. The cold shelf waters will keep the beaches chilly in the 55-60 range. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sat...Much warmer tonight as WAA strengthens ahead of approaching cold front. Temps will range from the 45-50 range northern tier to the low 50s south. Cold front will reach the FA by morning, thus the daytime highs will be realized around sunrise Mon, wherein temps fall quickly through the day Mon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. Sunday through Sunday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. Most guidance a bit drier than NBM, so overly eager NBM pops have been toned down to the 50-70% range, highest chances srn and ern areas. Bulk of precip is rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain as precip comes to an end in the afternoon. No impacts with warm ground in place and meager moisture. Aforementioned high temps should be realized in the morning Sunday, before plunging through the 30s in the afternoon hours. Breezy conditions develop in tandem with the strong CAA, and it will feel quite raw by late day. Coldest night of the season thus far will be realized Sun night/Mon morning. Guidance and thicknesses suggest lows 15-20 interior zones, with 20s OBX zones. Very well mixed atms will prevent lows from reaching their lowest potential, and where NBM is usually too warm on lows with radiational cooling, it tends to be a couple degrees too warm on well mixed nights. Have fcst a multi model MOS blend as a result. With the wind in place, apparent t`s will reach the upper single digits to low teens for most, and likely a cold wx advisory will be needed. Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning, then winds abate later in the day. Mon night expected to be cold once again, and with very dry atms and light winds in place, temps should reach the lower end of guidance, with teens interior zones and 20s nearer the coast. Light return flow may kick in later in the night with temps leveling off. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday (20%) and Thursday night (30-40%)with a cold front approaching and moving through the region. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday. Friday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. Trough will be low amplitude and thicknesses/hts don`t drop too drastically. Therefore temps will cont mild behind the fropa, with above climo readings expected. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 625 AM Sat... Key Messages - VFR conditions expected through late tonight - Increasing chances for sub-VFR conditions towards daybreak Sunday Generally VFR conditions are noted across ENC this morning. The lone exception is across EWN as some ground fog has developed here. Currently have a tempo group to account for this ground fog. But, either way no impact to operations is forecast as any ground fog that is occuring here will be just above the surface. Otherwise, by 13Z VFR conditions are forecast across all of ENC as high pressure ridge gradually slides offshore. This will allow calm winds to become SW`rly at about 5kts or so by mid morning Sat. As we get into the evening hours, a cold front begins approaching from the north and west which will allow for high and mid clouds to begin to build in from the west. Our first threat at sub-VFR ceilings comes towards daybreak Sun with the approach of the aforementioned cold front. Current guidance suggest western terminals and the Coastal Plain see ceilings drop below 3 kft by about 8-10Z with further east areas shortly thereafter. In addition to this, some SW`rly low level wind shear at about 35-40kts will be possible after 06Z Sun across all terminals as a cold front approaches. Given this, have included it in all area TAFs on this forecast cycle. Outlook: Increased chances for sub-VFR conditions remain through Sun afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Cold front should also bring a chance at some light precip which could also result in a brief period of lowered visibility as well. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Mon. VFR conditions return on Monday and persist through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sun afternoon through Sun night for nnwrly winds 30-40 kt expected. Through Tonight...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through today as high pres eases offshore. SW winds increase a bit into the 5-15 kt range today, though a bit higher in the Gulf waters with 10-20 kt expected. Tonight, gradient inc more with strengthening WAA expected, with SCA winds over the Gulf waters with 20-25 kt g 30 kt expected. Remainder of the waters will remain under a strong marine inversion and 10-15 kt expected. Seas in the 2-4 ft range through tonight. Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sun with passage of arctic front. Winds build to gales first in the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Sun afternoon, and have upgraded to gale warning here. Rest of the waters, sounds, and Alligator River build to gales Sun night, and remain in a 4th period gale watch. Seas peak 6-10 ft in the relatively short-lived gale Sun night. Monday...Winds die down quickly by early Mon morning with gales quickly diminishing to SCA conditions, mainly in lingering high seas, as high pres builds. Return flow already ensues Mon night with swrly flow 5-15 kt g 20 kt expected. May flirt with SCA again on the Gulf waters esp south of C Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad swrly flow in the 5-15 kt range expected, with generally good boating conditions expected with seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1254360 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 626 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog is expected this morning across the Tri- State region. Fog could be dense in some locations. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday. Cold weather products are expected to be issued for Sun-Mon and Mon-Tue. Dangerously cold wind chills are expected Monday morning, with a medium (30-60%) chance for a Hard Freeze (temps below 25 degrees) on Tuesday morning for our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties. - Gale conditions are likely later Sunday into Monday morning for the Gulf waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Patchy to areas of fog, with dense fog possible, is expected to develop this morning and may linger into the late morning hours. The most likely locations for dense fog will be in the AL and GA wiregrass regions and the FL Big Bend region. Surface high pressure still keeping us warm and dry during the day. Light southerly winds with highs in the low 70s this afternoon. There is a slight chance for showers very late tonight in SE Alabama. This will be dependent on the forward speed of the approaching cold front, which may delay the rain until daybreak Sunday morning. Temperatures this morning and tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, and warming to the low 50s along the Emerald Coast for tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 One would think this should be a slam-dunk forecast but, alas, reality is not so simple. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region beginning Sunday morning through the evening hours. Just ahead of the front, there is a slight chance (30-40%) for showers in our SE Alabama counties during the morning hours on Sunday, as well as patchy fog for the FL Big Bend region. As the front comes through, winds will quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 25 mph and become more northerly through the night. The wind gusts will decrease during the day Monday. Colder temperatures are expected behind the front but, the there is uncertainty in how quickly the colder temperatures will move into the region and also how cold it will get for Monday and Tuesday mornings. - When the cold front arrives, our AL and GA counties may experience falling temperatures during the day on Sunday, with the highest temp of the day occurring in the morning. This will depend on how strong the cold air advection is following the frontal passage as well as the timing of the passage. - The wind behind the front through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday will be a gentle breeze around 10 mph, which would be enough to create wind chills (feels-like temperatures) in the upper teens to low 20s by Monday morning. For areas along and north of I-10, there is currently a high chance of experiencing wind chills below 25 degrees Monday morning. The same area has at least a 25% chance of experiencing wind chills below 20 degrees. These wind chills are expected to reach criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory will needing to be issued for this time period. The coastal panhandle should finally experience their first freeze of the season Monday morning. Due to that, they may need a Freeze Warning for this time period, along with the aforementioned Cold Weather Advisory. - As the winds decrease during the day Monday, the wind chills will moderate. However, temperatures will be struggling to make it out of the 40s for much of the region. There is uncertainty as the winds may shift easterly during the day, allowing for moisture return and some cloud cover to begin Monday. This could allow for temperatures to be a little warmer on Monday (low 50s instead of upper 40s), particularly for our eastern counties along the I-75 corridor and SE FL Big Bend. - Winds will be light to calm Monday night into Tuesday with mostly clear skies. The CAA won`t be active, so we will have to rely on radiational cooling and the location of the surface high. For Tuesday morning, due to the light/calm winds, wind chills will be the same or close to the actual temperatures. Forecast temperatures will be in the low to mid-20s, with temps in the low 30s along the immediate coast and SE Big Bend. There is a medium chance (30-60%) for temps to fall below 25 degrees for our AL and GA counties. This would be the night for a Freeze (Hard Freeze) Warning in our AL and GA counties. During the day Tuesday, temperatures will gradually warm as an upper level ridge begins to build. Temps will warm to the upper 50s and low 60s, and continue this warming trend through Friday with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 TLH/ABY/VLD are affected by low cigs and vsbys down to IFR/LIFR while some mid clouds have pushed into our western zones and have kept ECP/DHN from crashing down to IFR. Removed mention from these two TAFs while keeping degraded flight conds at the other three terminals through 15Z. Afterwards, expect VFR to prevail through the evening hours. Overnight, fog/stratus once again will develop from ECP/TLH eastward. Towards DHN, a few showers are possible late in the period with the approach of a cold front. IFR cigs will be tied to the inbound cold front. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Tranquil boating conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of this week with winds becoming easterly/southeasterly by this afternoon. On Sunday, a cold front will push through during the day. Strong to near Gale sustained northerly winds with gale force wind gusts are expected for Sunday night into Monday morning with seas around 8 feet in our offshore waters. Conditions will then begin to relax late Monday heading into Tuesday with more favorable boating conditions returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Low dispersions are expected area-wide this afternoon. A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday, increasing transport winds to 20-25 mph from the north and dispersions into a moderate range. Ahead of the front, there is about a 40% chance for showers in our SE Alabama districts. Freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night and Monday night with northerly transwinds around 20 mph Sunday night. Dew points will fall into the single digits and teens for Monday, resulting in MinRH values between 20 and 30 percent for much of the region in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A strong cold front brings a 10 to 40 percent chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the highest chances across Southeastern Alabama. However, there are no flooding concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 49 67 30 / 0 0 20 0 Panama City 71 55 67 31 / 0 10 20 0 Dothan 72 51 61 26 / 0 40 20 0 Albany 69 51 60 25 / 0 30 20 0 Valdosta 72 47 67 26 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 74 48 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 55 68 35 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254359 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 613 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore this afternoon then a fast moving low pressure system will bring accumulating snow overnight into Sunday morning, especially south of the Mass Pike. Ocean effect snow showers will linger into Sunday afternoon towards the Cape and Islands. A brief shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday with wind chill dropping to between 5 below and 5 above. It remains cold Tuesday, but a pattern change with a significant warming trend is likely Wednesday into Thursday. The milder will likely be accompanied by a period of gusty winds and showers sometime in the late Thursday into Friday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Today... Mainly dry weather today with high pressure in control. Will see increasing mid and high clouds as a disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures will warm to around -5C by the afternoon with a light return flow behind departing high pressure. High temperatures will be warmer than what we`ve recently seen with highs well into the 30s with even some lower 40. Mainly dry today...but a few spot snow showers are possible across interior or rain showers near the coast after 21z with weak lift ahead of an incoming shortwave. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow very late tonight-Sun morning especially south of I-90...highest accumulations near south coast * Advisory Level snowfall expected towards the south coast, Cape and Islands. * Ocean effect snow showers linger on the outer Cape into Sun night with additional minor accum possible * Brief shot of arctic air results in wind chills dropping to between -5 and 5 above late Sun night into early Mon morning Details... Tonight... Starting to see some better agreement among guidance with respect to the season`s first widespread snow event along the I95 corridor slated for tonight into Sunday morning. Notably, the GFS has trended further north with the higher QPF to be more in line with the CMC and ECMWF. As a result, global models are nearly identical in terms of QPF placement and amounts. High res guidance is generally similar with the exception of the HRRR which has the bulk of the precip shield further offshore and thus a drier solution. Later today shortwave energy rotates around a positively tilted trough north of the Great Lakes. Trough starts to dig overnight bringing a deep moisture plume northward into SNE. PWATs increase from 0.3" to 0.5-0.6" overnight so there will be plenty of moisture to work with. Further aloft, the region will find itself under the right entrance region of a 140-150 kt upper jet overnight into Sunday morning. High confidence that this combination will bring the first widespread accumulating snows for much of RI, and areas S of the Mass Pike. Precipitation will likely start at light snow late tonight for much of the region except for the Cape and Islands where temperatures will take some time to cool. Still expecting much of the accumulating snow to fall over a 8-12 hour period later tonight into Sunday morning. High res guidance has also honed in on the chance for lingering ocean effect snow for the Cape and Islands into Sunday afternoon. While this certainly does not look like a heavy snow event, BUFKIT soundings have become somewhat more impressive for this event. Specifically the 00z NAM has modest amounts of omega on the order of -10 ubar/sec collocated with a 6-8kft DGZ across much of SE Massachusetts. Thus, unsurprisingly, the HREF shows a brief window of hourly snowfall rates between 0.25 and 0.5 inches mainly across S RI and SE MA between 08 and 12z Sunday morning. In terms of totals, while this won`t be a major event it will be the first accumulating snow of the 2025-26 season for many of us. Despite a somewhat deep DGZ and temps in the mid and lower 20s snow ratios will be limited by a lack of strong mid-level frontogenesis and omega. All told, this will be a general 1-3 inch event S of the Mass Pike with highest amounts along the south coast. Expecting around 4-4.5 inches on Cape Cod and the south coast. Meanwhile, just a coating to an inch for areas north of the MA Pike. Think the RRFS shows a reasonable worst case scenario if there is a northern shift there could be up to 6 inches across RI and SE MA and Cape Cod but this is still a low probability (less than 25%) outcome. If the system trends south it would be closer to 1-2 inches near the south coast with decreasing amounts northward. Sunday and Sunday Night... Steadiest snow will quickly end from west to east through mid morning Sunday. Expecting ocean effect snow showers to linger the outer Cape Sun afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the region on NNW-NW flow. Ocean induced CAPES expected increase to 500- 600 J/kg with SST differential around 25C. An additional inch or 2 is possible on the outer Cape but boundary layer temperature profiles may be a bit warm for additional accumulations during the afternoon. A short duration shot of arctic air will pour into the region Sun night and Mon. Lows will drop into the single numbers and teens with wind chills bottoming out between -5F and +5F late Sun night and Mon morning, with -10F possible in the Berkshires. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages... * Blustery and bitterly cold Mon AM with Wind Chills between 5 below & 5 above and afternoon highs only recovering into the 20s * A few brief snow showers possible Monday night, otherwise dry and still chilly Tue with highs mainly in the lower-middle 30s * Pattern change with significantly milder temperatures Wed-Fri with unsettled/mainly wet weather possible sometime late Thu into Fri Details... Monday... A brief shot of arctic air and gusty NW winds will result in bitterly cold wind chills early Mon morning in the 5 below and 5 above range. Under a mixture of clouds and sunshine will result in Mon afternoon high temperatures only recovering into the 20s. Monday night and Tuesday... A fast moving moisture starved northern stream shortwave may bring a few brief snow showers to the region Monday night. Otherwise...the main story will be the continued chilly weather. Lows Mon night will generally be in the teens. Highs on Tue will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain...to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday through Friday... The long range model guidance continues to be in very good agreement in a significant pattern change. A -PNA developing will allow for milder Pacific air to overspread much of the lower 48. This is quite the change from the very cold weather we have seen for the first of of December. High temperatures should reach well into the 40s on Wed and perhaps 50+ Thu and/or Fri. In fact...Thu night may end up quite mild with gusty southerly winds and steady/rising temps if current model timing pans out. This a result of shortwave energy moving into the Great Lakes resulting in strong surface low pressure tracking well to our north across Quebec. This would allow a strong southerly LLJ to develop...2+ standard deviations above normal also bringing showers and the potential for gusty winds sometime in the late Thursday to Friday time frame. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today...High confidence. VFR. SW wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots develop this afternoon with a few gusts near 25 knots possible near the south coast. Low risk of just a brief spot rain/snow shower later today with the greatest risk towards the Cape and Islands. Tonight and Sunday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions dominate during the first half of the evening. MVFR-IFR conditions in light snow overspread the region in the 03z to 07z time frame. Ptype will mainly be snow...but a few hours of rain or mixed rain/snow are possible near the Cape and Islands. Steadiest snow south of I-90 and especially towards the south coast where brief LIFR conditions are possible in snow. Snow winds down between 12z and 16z from northwest to southeast...but lingers into the afternoon towards the southeast New England coast. Otherwise...improvement to VFR conditions expected. Light SW winds tonight shift to the NW at 5 to 15 knots on Sunday. Sunday night...High Confidence. VFR outside the the outer-Cape/Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers may persist Sunday evening. This activity should dissipate though after midnight. Otherwise...NW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts near 30 knots in the high terrain and near the coast develop Sunday night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Snow likely develops after 06z with the bulk of it ending before lunchtime Sunday. Total snow accumulations of 1-2" possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Snow develops after 03z/04z and ends by mid-late Sunday morning. Total snow accumulations of 1-3" possible. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Sunday Night ...High confidence. Small craft advisory conditions redevelop later today into this evening with gusty SW winds/choppy seas developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Gale watch Sunday night into Monday as strong CAA will result in excellent mixing over the waters. Areas of very light freezing spray possible Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ020>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for RIZ003>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254358 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 604 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Sunday Morning - Dangerously Low Wind Chills Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Cold Weather Advisory Conditions [Wind Chills: 15-25F]: Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Hard Freezes Expected for Inland Southeast GA Early Next Week. Hard Freeze Potential Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Gale Warnings Likely on Sunday Night & Monday Morning && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... A brief period of MVFR visibilities will be possible through 13Z at VQQ and GNV. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 04Z Sunday. Fog and low stratus ceilings developing over Apalachee Bay and the Suwannee Valley will likely overspread the GNV and VQQ terminals after 05Z, with IFR to LIFR conditions expected to develop at these inland terminals by 09Z. Low stratus and fog could continue to expand northeastward across the rest of the Duval County terminals and SGJ, but confidence was too low to include in the 12Z TAFs at this time. Light westerly surface winds will develop at the regional terminals towards 14Z and will then shift to southwesterly at 5-10 knots by 17Z. The Atlantic sea breeze will develop near the coastal terminals this afternoon, shifting surface winds to southeasterly by 18Z at SSI and SGJ. Surface winds will diminish early this evening, with light west- southwesterly winds then developing during the predawn hours on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The area will remain mainly under the influence of the western periphery of an Atlantic ridge throughout the day today and into the first part of tonight, keeping the benign and dry pattern persistent through most of the near term period. More mid and high clouds will start to stream across the area today as southwesterly flow aloft off the Gulf increases, especially over northeast Florida. But otherwise a dry and mild day is expected featuring light southwesterly winds only around 5 mph, and high temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A slightly milder night will be in store tonight as well thanks to more cloud cover and southwesterly flow, though still in the 40s across much of southeast GA and the Upper Suwannee Valley, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Early Morning fog chances Sunday Morning will be a little bit higher with an uptick in surface moisture throughout today and into tonight. Primary focus area would be over inland northeast FL, though some patchy fog is likely over interior southeast GA as well given a frontal boundary starting to approach Sunday Morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Troughing aloft digging southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday morning will pivot eastward across New England on Sunday night. This potent trough will drive an Arctic cold front across southeast GA on Sunday morning and the rest of our area during the early to mid afternoon hours. A narrow ribbon of moisture will pool just ahead of the approaching Arctic cold front late on Saturday night across the Deep South, where PWATs will climb to around 1.25 inches after midnight on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Strong forcing just ahead of the Arctic cold front and these slightly higher moisture levels will likely allow for a few showers to develop over the Altamaha / Ocmulgee River basins early on Sunday morning, with a few showers possible across the rest of inland southeast GA through around noon. Although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out elsewhere during the frontal passage, dry weather is likely to prevail on Sunday across northeast and north central FL. The frontal passage will likely be accompanied by a band of mid-level cloudiness that will progress southward during the afternoon hours. A cooler and drier air mass will begin to advect into our region on Sunday afternoon, with dewpoints falling below freezing for locations from Waycross northward in southeast GA during the late afternoon hours. Breezy northwesterly winds will overspread our region on Sunday afternoon, and cold air advection will counter increasing sunshine across southeast GA, keeping early afternoon highs in the 60s, with temperatures falling through the 50s during the mid to late afternoon. Highs will climb into the 70s early in the afternoon across northeast and north central FL, with temperatures then falling back through the 60s during the late afternoon. The base of deep troughing over the eastern third of the nation will pivot across our region on Sunday night, with dry northwesterly flow then prevailing locally through Monday night. An Arctic dome of high pressure (around 1045 millibars) will build over the northern Plains on Saturday night, with this surface ridge only slowly weakening as it slides southeastward on Sunday and Sunday night, reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early Monday morning. Our local pressure gradient will continue to tighten as this surface ridge wedges down the southeastern seaboard, likely creating Gale Conditions over our local Atlantic waters by the early evening hours. Low level flow will quickly veer to northerly towards sunset and then northeasterly by sunrise on Monday. Strong cold air advection will drive an extremely dry air mass into southeast GA and inland portions of northeast and north central FL, with dewpoints falling into the single digits across inland southeast GA after midnight, with teens extending into the Suwannee Valley and coastal southeast GA and 20s for inland northeast and north central FL. A hard advective freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 20s, with a light northeasterly breeze dropping wind chill values to mid teens. A light advective freeze will extend to coastal portions of southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and inland northeast FL, and possibly for portions of coastal northeast FL, where breezy northeasterly winds will drive wind chills down to the upper teens and lower 20s. Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Watches will likely be issued later today in advance of this Arctic plunge for these locations. Breezy onshore winds will likely keep lows in the 30s to around 40 for inland north central FL and the lower 40s for coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties, where gusty northeasterly winds will drive wind chill values down to the low and mid 30s by sunrise on Monday. Arctic high pressure will continue to steadily weaken as it builds over the southeastern states on Monday, allowing the local pressure gradient to loosen over southeast GA during the afternoon hours. Despite plenty of sunshine, the Arctic air mass will keep highs in the 40s for locations north of Interstate 10. A tighter local pressure gradient will continue for locations south of I-10, keeping breezy northeasterly winds in place, where highs will generally remain in the low to mid 50s, except upper 50s to around 60 for inland north central FL. Coastal troughing will begin to take shape over our near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL on Monday afternoon, likely driving a deck of marine stratocumulus onshore along the I-95 corridor on Monday evening. Lows on Monday night will likely remain above freezing for locations east of I-95, with low to mid 40s forecast along the northeast FL coast, where a light northerly breeze will prevail overnight. Fair skies and decoupling winds elsewhere will allow for radiational cooling, with another hard freeze likely across inland southeast GA, with a light freeze expected for the Suwannee Valley. Light winds will allow for widespread frost formation, with frosty conditions likely extending into inland portions of north central FL, where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing aloft will exit the U.S. eastern seaboard on Tuesday, with dry northwesterly flow prevailing locally through Tuesday night. Our local pressure gradient will continue to loosen on Tuesday as coastal troughing persists over our local Atlantic waters. Cold air advection will shut off as high pressure weakens along the southeastern seaboard, allowing highs to rebound to the upper 50s across southeast GA to the 60s across northeast and north central FL. One more night of radiational cooling is expected on Tuesday night, but model blends keep lows above freezing across our area. Widespread frost formation is still likely for inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 30s. Lows elsewhere will likely remain in the upper 30s and 40s inland, ranging to around 50 along the northeast FL coast, where marine stratocumulus may continue to move onshore along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will continue to modify on Wednesday as zonal flow aloft develops and surface ridging shifts offshore of the southeastern seaboard. Onshore low level flow on Wednesday will continue to advect marine stratocumulus onshore from the Atlantic waters across our region, but rising heights aloft will allow highs to climb into the 70s for inland locations south of I-10, while mid to upper 60s prevail elsewhere. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights will only fall to the mid and upper 40s for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with 50s elsewhere. Southwesterly flow aloft will develop on Thursday and Friday downstream of a trough that will be pivoting across the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low and mid level flow will continue to veer, with southerly winds on Thursday morning shifting to south- southwesterly during the afternoon, boosting highs into the 70s, except upper 60s for coastal southeast GA due to the afternoon sea breeze. This front and gradually increasing moisture levels could bring a few showers to inland portions of southeast GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley by Thursday afternoon and night. Support aloft for the front will wane by Friday, with this boundary potentially stalling across the Interstate 10 corridor. A slightly cooler air mass may filter into southeast GA as winds shift to northwesterly during the morning hours and then quickly veer to northeasterly by the afternoon. Highs will likely remain in the 70s across inland portions of northeast and north central FL. && .MARINE... High pressure centered over our local waters this morning will shift eastward this afternoon ahead of an Arctic cold front that will enter the southeastern states tonight. This strong cold front will cross our area from the northwest on Sunday, with only a few showers possible on Sunday night and Monday morning, mainly offshore. North- northwesterly winds will strengthen in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday afternoon and will shift to north northeasterly on Sunday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued for Sunday afternoon, with Gale Warnings also likely throughout our local waters on Sunday Night and Monday morning as winds shift to northeasterly as Arctic high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard. This high pressure center will gradually weaken over the southeastern states early next week as coastal troughing develops over our local waters. Onshore winds and seas will then gradually subside from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Coastal troughing may generate a few showers early next week, mainly offshore. High pressure will then shift eastward and off the southeastern seaboard by midweek, with a weaker frontal boundary likely approaching our local waters late next week. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Today and Sunday NE FL Low Today and Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... Light and variable surface winds this morning for locations south of Waycross will shift to southwesterly this afternoon, with transport speeds increasing to 5-10 mph. Westerly transport winds of 5-10 mph this morning for locations north of Waycross will shift to southwesterly this afternoon, where fair daytime dispersion values are forecast. Light speeds elsewhere will yield poor dispersion values, with pockets of marginally low values at coastal locations and also for the Suwannee Valley and Okefenokee Swamp. Surface and transport winds will shift to west-northwesterly by sunrise on Sunday, with breezy conditions developing across inland southeast Georgia during the morning hours, where a few showers will be possible. Winds will then shift to northwesterly during the afternoon hours, with steadily increasing speeds area-wide creating good daytime dispersion values, with marginally high values possible in the Ocala National Forest as well as inland southeast Georgia. Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after midnight on Sunday night, with strong speeds persisting along the Interstate 95 corridor, where elevated nighttime dispersion values are forecast. A cold and very dry air mass will then settle over our region on Monday, with critically low humidity values expected on Monday afternoon across most of inland southeast Georgia. Breezy northeasterly surface and transport winds on Monday morning will shift to east-northeasterly with diminishing speeds across inland southeast Georgia and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, precluding Red Flag Conditions. Breezy speeds will continue elsewhere, resulting in fair daytime dispersion values, except for good values at coastal locations and for north central Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 48 63 23 / 0 10 20 0 SSI 68 52 68 31 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 74 49 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 73 54 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 76 51 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 53 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1254357 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 552 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Benign weather is expected tonight into Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday night into Sunday, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and relatively mild today with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions late tonight and Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory issues for Dorchester and Wicomico Counties. Transient sfc high pressure is located along the coast early this morning, which will slide offshore today as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Latest obs show temps in the mid to upper 20s, which will likely stabilize as high level cloud cover moves into the area. Dry and relatively mild today ahead of tonight/tomorrow`s system. Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to mid 50s from I-64 south. A strong Arctic cold front is then set to cross through the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Precip associated with this front will enter far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. This looks to be a case where cold air is chasing the precip, so the mode likely starts out as rain before transitioning to snow on the back- end. The 00z CAMs are generally consistent with keeping the most wide-spread snow/rain across the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps into the Northern Neck. The accumulation forecast has not changed too much from the previous forecast cycle. Currently calling for 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore, primarily in Dorchester and Wicomico. Less than an inch of accumulation is forecast along and N of the I-64 corridor, omitting the Hampton Roads portion, and the lower Eastern Shore. Cannot rule out a trace/dusting for Hampton Roads should the changeover happen in time. A "reasonable worst case" would be 2-3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. Went ahead and issues a Winter Weather Advisory for 1am-1pm Sunday for Dorchester and Wicomico with this in mind. Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday and peak in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35mph will be possible. Highs range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid-afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday afternoon, there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories are likely. The arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday with lows in the low to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... - Moderating temperatures expected through the middle of next week. - A potential front brings rain chances late-week Tuesday through Thursday will follow a warming trend once the strong high is suppressed to the SE and the UL trough lifts out. Highs on Tues look to be in the 40s, followed by the 50s on Wed, and around 60 on Thursday. Tuesday and Wed look dry, then a potential front returns rain chances to the forecast Thursday afternoon. Will say that there is not a lot of confidence in details on this front given the varying solutions from the global models. Behind the front temps cool again, but this time sticking closer to seasonal norms. Forecast highs for Friday are in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 550 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for most of the 12/13 TAF period. Starting out with high level cloud cover moving in from the N/NW today ahead of tomorrow`s cold front. Winds will be calm to light and variable early, then SW winds of 5-10kt through most of tonight. A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight into early Sunday. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix followed by all snow early morning through midday Sunday. Confidence in winter weather is highest at SBY, likely occuring shortly after 12z Sunday. Some flight restrictions with low CIGs across all terminals possible with this front. Turning much colder/drier with gusty NNW winds (25-35kt) Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday morning, with Gale conditions then expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night. - Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, high pressure (~1020 mb) is centered over the waters resulting in light and variable winds. Seas are averaging 1 to 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 foot or less. High pressure will center further offshore later this morning and a warm front will lift north over the waters. As the warm front lifts north, winds become S to SW and increase to around 10 knots (10 to 15 knots northern coastal waters). Meanwhile, a strong, Arctic cold front will be approaching from the NW today and is expected to cross the waters tonight into early Sunday morning. This will be the main focus of the forecast period. In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft will mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters helping create very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning-early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon- evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday, sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Winds then diminish, eventually falling below Gale thresholds everywhere by ~12z, and below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for all of the waters Sunday- Sunday night. SCAs will likely be needed late Sunday night into Monday as Gale headlines begin to drop off. In addition to the wind, seas build to 5 to 9 feet by Sunday night, though the offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday night as the bitterly cold air filters into the area in combination with the strong winds. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should help to keep any freezing spray on the lighter side. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MDZ021-022. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254356 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 428 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A front will push through the Keys tonight bringing isolated thunderstorms and high rain chances peaking overnight before tapering off Sunday morning. -Drying and freshening breezy conditions expected Sunday night into Monday, with post-frontal winds reaching Small Craft Advisory levels Monday and persisting through early Tuesday. -As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 This morning, temperatures across the Florida Keys are near 70F, with dew points in the mid 60s. Winds along the Reef are generally from the northeast to east at 15 to 20 knots, driven by high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure to the west. This gradient is strongest over the water currently accounting for these slightly elevated winds along the Reef and offshore. Skies are mostly cloudy with upper-level clouds being observed on Nighttime Microphysics imagery, while lower-level clouds remain limited. KBYX radar shows a few light showers in the distant Straits, though the island chain has remained generally rain-free overnight. Moderate to fresh breezes are expected to start to slacken this morning, therefore the headline "Small Craft Exercise Caution Until Winds Decrease" is in place for the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida until those winds come down early afternoon. Later in the day, a shortwave trough advancing across the western Gulf waters will drive a front through the Keys. Pre-frontal moisture advection will result in numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with rain chances peaking tonight at 80%. As the front moves through, shower activity will diminish starting late Sunday morning rapidly drying out by Sunday night and Monday. Post- frontal winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels Monday through possibly Tuesday morning while the pressure gradient behind the front tightens. Mid-week, another area of high pressure will build across the region, resulting in generally uneventful weather. Shower chances will be minimal (~10%) with gentle to moderate breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease for the Hawk Channel and Strait of Florida. Thereafter, no watches, warnings, or advisories will be in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, moderate to occasionally fresh northeast to easterly breezes will slightly slacken over the day into tonight. The next frontal boundary is progged to push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Sunday night. Ahead of the front, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through early Sunday. In the wake of the frontal passage, fresh to strong northeasterly breezes are expected Sunday night through at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through the morning. Thereafter, shower and possible thunderstorm activity will increase, leading to likely short bouts of MVFR to IFR CIGs and visibility. Since these bouts are expected to be fairly transient, have opted to stick with VCSH for now, leaving timing and explicit TS mention to be refined via amendment and later issuances. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected to continue through the morning, before veering to the east this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1962, the daily record low temperature of 42F was recorded at Marathon, and 46F at Key West. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950, and for Key West to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254355 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 353 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - A little warmer today with dry conditions continuing. Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds at times. - The next cold front will push through during Sunday but will come through mostly dry. Scattered showers and a storm or two will affect Treasure coast/Okeechobee. - Breezy to windy conditions develop Sunday evening/overnight as strong high pressure builds in behind the front. These winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions Sun night/Mon, with high surf and beach erosion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today/tonight...High pressure ridge axis draped across north central FL will weaken and push seaward. Dry conditions persist today with light winds turning onshore in a sea breeze around 10 mph south of the Cape. There will be some increase in high clouds filtering the sun at times as well as some fair weather cumulus. Max temps will warm into the mid and upper 70s, slightly above normal for mid Dec. Tonight, moisture lifts northward from south FL. Along with considerable cloudiness there will be scattered showers and possibly a storm or two after midnight lifting northward into Okeechobee and Treasure coast counties. Across northern sections, there is a better chance for fog across Volusia county, spreading southward toward metro Orlando. Sun-Mon...Ongoing showers across southern sections Sun morning will move NE and offshore onto the Atlc as a cold front pushes steadily southward across the area during the day. A NW breeze will develop initially behind the front. Then strong high pressure (1040mb) over the central US builds SE into FL and tightens the NW-N pressure gradient late Sun and esp Sun night. This will result in a period of windy conditions along the coast with Wind Advisories likely Sun night into early Monday. While it will become noticeably cooler with max temps holding in the 60s on Monday, because the winds turn onshore so quickly, the cold continental airmass will rapidly modify over EC FL sparing us any freeze concerns. These strong N/NE winds will produce rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion Sun night into Mon. Fortunately the duration will be very short as the high pressure weakens steadily as it reaches the Carolina coast late Mon. The high tide of most concern will be early Mon between 4am-5am. A High Surf Advisory may be needed for breaking waves of 7-9 FT. Tue-Fri...The high pressure will shift eastward over the Atlc. A trailing ridge axis will remain near 30N lat so a general easterly flow will dominate Tue-Wed at 10-15 mph veering SE Thu 10 mph. The next cold front is forecast to approach Fri but lack of moisture looks to limit rain chances. Temperatures will undergo a warming trend each day reaching the upper 70s/near 80 Thu (mid 70s coastal Volusia). Lows will generally be in the 50s, holding in the lower 60s along the coast by Thu morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure ridge across the northern (Volusia) waters will produce favorable boating conditions again today. Light and variable winds will turn northeast to east up to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and up to 3 FT offshore Treasure coast. Scattered showers and a few storms will lift north into the southern (Treasure coast) waters tonight and Sun ahead of a cold front. This next front will sweep across the waters during Sunday with a NW wind shift. Winds will increase out of the north late Sunday and Sunday night as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind the cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20-30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore (up to 10 FT nearshore Volusia) and up to 13 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and 10-15 KT Tue as pressure gradient eases. High pressure pushes out to sea Wed and winds veer Easterly remaining 10-15 KT. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with seas falling below 7 FT in the Gulf Stream late in the day. Seas Wed 3 FT nearshore and 4 FT offshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Mainly VFR conditions forecast at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Guidance continues to show low and inconsistent chances for patchy fog through early morning, primarily at KVRB-KSUA. Haven`t seen any noteworthy fog development on satellite imagery and traffic cameras yet (just a little MIFG here and there), so kept the TAFs VFR with this package and will AMD as needed. Any fog that manages to develop expected to clear by around 13Z. Light/VRB winds turn ESE-SE in the afternoon at 5-10 kts, highest along the coast, then becoming light/VRB again after 23Z. Better chances for fog development late tonight into early Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 77 60 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 MLB 77 61 78 57 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 77 61 79 59 / 0 20 30 10 LEE 76 57 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 77 58 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 77 59 78 50 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 78 61 79 59 / 0 30 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1254354 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 330 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore this afternoon then a fast moving low pressure system will bring accumulating snow overnight into Sunday morning, especially south of the Mass Pike. Ocean effect snow showers will linger into Sunday afternoon towards the Cape and Islands. A brief shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday with wind chill dropping to between 5 below and 5 above. It remains cold Tuesday, but a pattern change with a significant warming trend is likely Wednesday into Thursday. The milder will likely be accompanied by a period of gusty winds and showers sometime in the late Thursday into Friday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Today Mainly dry weather today with high pressure in control. Will see increasing mid and high clouds as a disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures will warm to around -5C by the afternoon with a light return flow behind departing high pressure. High temperatures will be warmer than what we`ve recently seen with highs well into the 30s with even some lower 40. Mainly dry today...but a few spot snow showers are possible across interior or rain showers near the coast after 21z with weak lift ahead of an incoming shortwave. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Accumulating snow very late tonight-Sun morning especially south of I-90...highest accumulations near south coast * Advisory Level snowfall expected towards the south coast, Cape and Islands. * Ocean effect snow showers linger on the outer Cape into Sun night with additional minor accum possible * Brief shot of arctic air results in wind chills dropping to between -5 and 5 above late Sun night into early Mon morning Details... Tonight... Starting to see some better agreement among guidance with respect to the season`s first widespread snow event along the I95 corridor slated for tonight into Sunday morning. Notably, the GFS has trended further north with the higher QPF to be more in line with the CMC and ECMWF. As a result, global models are nearly identical in terms of QPF placement and amounts. High res guidance is generally similar with the exception of the HRRR which has the bulk of the precip shield further offshore and thus a drier solution. Later today shortwave energy rotates around a positively tilted trough north of the Great Lakes. Trough starts to dig overnight bringing a deep moisture plume northward into SNE. PWATs increase from 0.3" to 0.5-0.6" overnight so there will be plenty of moisture to work with. Further aloft, the region will find itself under the right entrance region of a 140-150 kt upper jet overnight into Sunday morning. High confidence that this combination will bring the first widespread accumulating snows for much of RI, and areas S of the Mass Pike. Precipitation will likely start at light snow late tonight for much of the region except for the Cape and Islands where temperatures will take some time to cool. Still expecting much of the accumulating snow to fall over a 8-12 hour period later tonight into Sunday morning. High res guidance has also honed in on the chance for lingering ocean effect snow for the Cape and Islands into Sunday afternoon. While this certainly does not look like a heavy snow event, BUFKIT soundings have become somewhat more impressive for this event. Specifically the 00z NAM has modest amounts of omega on the order of -10 ubar/sec collocated with a 6-8kft DGZ across much of SE Massachusetts. Thus, unsurprisingly, the HREF shows a brief window of hourly snowfall rates between 0.25 and 0.5 inches mainly across S RI and SE MA between 08 and 12z Sunday morning. In terms of totals, while this won`t be a major event it will be the first accumulating snow of the 2025-26 season for many of us. Despite a somewhat deep DGZ and temps in the mid and lower 20s snow ratios will be limited by a lack of strong mid-level frontogenesis and omega. All told, this will be a general 1-3 inch event S of the Mass Pike with highest amounts along the south coast. Expecting around 4-4.5 inches on Cape Cod and the south coast. Meanwhile, just a coating to an inch for areas north of the MA Pike. Think the RRFS shows a reasonable worst case scenario if there is a northern shift there could be up to 6 inches across RI and SE MA and Cape Cod but this is still a low probability (less than 25%) outcome. If the system trends south it would be closer to 1-2 inches near the south coast with decreasing amounts northward. Sunday and Sunday Night... Steadiest snow will quickly end from west to east through mid morning Sunday. Expecting ocean effect snow showers to linger the outer Cape Sun afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the region on NNW-NW flow. Ocean induced CAPES expected increase to 500- 600 J/kg with SST differential around 25C. An additional inch or 2 is possible on the outer Cape but boundary layer temperature profiles may be a bit warm for additional accumulations during the afternoon. A short duration shot of arctic air will pour into the region Sun night and Mon. Lows will drop into the single numbers and teens with wind chills bottoming out between -5F and +5F late Sun night and Mon morning, with -10F possible in the Berkshires. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages... * Blustery and bitterly cold Mon AM with Wind Chills between 5 below & 5 above and afternoon highs only recovering into the 20s * A few brief snow showers possible Monday night, otherwise dry and still chilly Tue with highs mainly in the lower-middle 30s * Pattern change with significantly milder temperatures Wed-Fri with unsettled/mainly wet weather possible sometime late Thu into Fri Details... Monday... A brief shot of arctic air and gusty NW winds will result in bitterly cold wind chills early Mon morning in the 5 below and 5 above range. Under a mixture of clouds and sunshine will result in Mon afternoon high temperatures only recovering into the 20s. Monday night and Tuesday... A fast moving moisture starved northern stream shortwave may bring a few brief snow showers to the region Monday night. Otherwise...the main story will be the continued chilly weather. Lows Mon night will generally be in the teens. Highs on Tue will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain...to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday through Friday... The long range model guidance continues to be in very good agreement in a significant pattern change. A -PNA developing will allow for milder Pacific air to overspread much of the lower 48. This is quite the change from the very cold weather we have seen for the first of of December. High temperatures should reach well into the 40s on Wed and perhaps 50+ Thu and/or Fri. In fact...Thu night may end up quite mild with gusty southerly winds and steady/rising temps if current model timing pans out. This a result of shortwave energy moving into the Great Lakes resulting in strong surface low pressure tracking well to our north across Quebec. This would allow a strong southerly LLJ to develop...2+ standard deviations above normal also bringing showers and the potential for gusty winds sometime in the late Thursday to Friday time frame. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update Today...High Confidence Mostly VFR, possibly borderline MVFR for the Cape and Islands after 21z. Southwest winds between 5 and 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots. Slight chance for areas of -SHRA/-SHSN across the Cape and Islands near 00z. Tonight... Moderate Confidence Mainly MVFR with areas of IFR developing along the south coast and Cape/Islands. Areas of -SN moving in from W to E between 05 and 07z. Light SW winds through the night. Sunday... Moderate Confidence Mostly VFR except for the Cape and Islands with lingering areas of MVFR and IFR across the Cape and Islands through 21z. -SN comes to an end from W-E after 16z except over the Cape where ocean effect snow showers continue past 00z. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Sunday Night ...High confidence. Small craft advisory conditions redevelop later today into this evening with gusty SW winds/choppy seas developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Gale watch Sunday night into Monday as strong CAA will result in excellent mixing over the waters. Areas of very light freezing spray possible Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ020>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for RIZ003>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1254353 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 318 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Generally dry and seasonable weather through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will begin developing this evening from south to north with best chances of rain over metro areas south of I-75. - High risk of rip currents until later tonight for all Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Model solutions and latest WPC sfc analyses show a rather long frontal boundary stretching across the south and east states, with its parent low north of the Great Lakes. Closer to home, a ridge over the western Atlantic is extending into central Florida, keeping generally dry and pleasant weather conditions in place through this afternoon. 00Z MFL sounding shows a similar atmospheric profile as yesterday, with a solid inversion around 850bm and a very dry air mass through 9 km, and PWATs around 0.8 inches. By the late afternoon/early evening hours, a lingering decaying frontal boundary over the Fl keys will begin to lift north and dragging moisture into SoFlo. Meanwhile, ensembles show the aforementioned low north of the Great Lakes migrating east and dragging the associated sfc boundary into the SE states and northern Florida. This will weaken the ridge and allow for additional moisture to push northward across SoFlo. POPs gradually increase from south to north, with up to 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight/morning hours Sunday. Highest POPs will reside south of I-75 along the Atlantic metro areas where the best pool of moisture will reside. Main hazards will be localized heavy rain, thunderstorm wind gusts and lightning strikes. Can`t rule out a few strong thunderstorms during the overnight hours. The front impacts should be short-lived as reinforcing high pressure quickly follows and by Sunday evening another shot of robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo. Afternoon highs warm up a bit today with upper 70s to low 80s across SoFlo, warmest over the west coast. Coldest temps will remain around the Lake region and interior areas with Sunday morning lows in the low-mid 60s, and upper 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Global solutions remain in good agreement in bringing sprawling high pressure across the region in the wake of a FROPA for much the work week. Robust northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across the Florida peninsula. Wind gusts could reach the 30 mph range along the Atlantic coast at times on Monday and Monday evening. POPs also drop back to single digits on Monday, although latest NBM insists in keeping just a sliver of slight chances of showers right along the Atlantic coast through the afternoon hours. Afterwards, the dry air makes a final push and brings POPs to near zero through the rest of the long term. Therefore, expect generally benign and pleasant weather to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise, with lows dipping into the low-mid 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR continue today at all terminals until around 00Z. Light and variable flow will become easterly by 15Z. Mainly clear skies for through this morning, then becoming cloudy by the mid-late afternoon hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are possible for eastern sites this evening as showers or even isolated thunderstorms begin developing tonight. Winds will shift to a more northerly flow and become breezy/gusty overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through tonight, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the this afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing tonight and through Sunday. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty wind will accompany any thunderstorm that may form. && .BEACHES... Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for all Atlantic beaches until later tonight. Another round high risk is likely early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 69 81 65 / 20 70 50 20 West Kendall 81 65 82 62 / 20 70 50 10 Opa-Locka 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 Homestead 81 68 81 64 / 30 70 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 81 65 / 10 70 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 81 66 / 10 70 50 20 Pembroke Pines 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 West Palm Beach 79 68 81 65 / 0 60 40 20 Boca Raton 81 68 82 65 / 10 60 50 20 Naples 82 66 81 59 / 10 50 30 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254352 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure slides through today. A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. Another cold front moves through Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sat...Heights/thicknesses rise ahead of a strong cold front as swrly winds inc today. This will bring much warmer conditions (briefly) with highs expected to reach the 60s inland. The cold shelf waters will keep the beaches chilly in the 55-60 range. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sat...Much warmer tonight as WAA strengthens ahead of approaching cold front. Temps will range from the 45-50 range northern tier to the low 50s south. Cold front will reach the FA by morning, thus the daytime highs will be realized around sunrise Mon, wherein temps fall quickly through the day Mon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with sharply falling temps and breezy conditions through afternoon. - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range Sunday night/Monday morning. Sunday through Sunday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. Most guidance a bit drier than NBM, so overly eager NBM pops have been toned down to the 50-70% range, highest chances srn and ern areas. Bulk of precip is rain, but a stray flake or two may mix in with rain as precip comes to an end in the afternoon. No impacts with warm ground in place and meager moisture. Aforementioned high temps should be realized in the morning Sunday, before plunging through the 30s in the afternoon hours. Breezy conditions develop in tandem with the strong CAA, and it will feel quite raw by late day. Coldest night of the season thus far will be realized Sun night/Mon morning. Guidance and thicknesses suggest lows 15-20 interior zones, with 20s OBX zones. Very well mixed atms will prevent lows from reaching their lowest potential, and where NBM is usually too warm on lows with radiational cooling, it tends to be a couple degrees too warm on well mixed nights. Have fcst a multi model MOS blend as a result. With the wind in place, apparent t`s will reach the upper single digits to low teens for most, and likely a cold wx advisory will be needed. Monday...Arctic high traverses ENC with cold and brisk temps expected. Highs in the 30s area-wide. Breeziest conditions expected through the morning, then winds abate later in the day. Mon night expected to be cold once again, and with very dry atms and light winds in place, temps should reach the lower end of guidance, with teens interior zones and 20s nearer the coast. Light return flow may kick in later in the night with temps leveling off. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday (20%) and Thursday night (30-40%)with a cold front approaching and moving through the region. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday. Friday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end, with dry conditions returning. Trough will be low amplitude and thicknesses/hts don`t drop too drastically. Therefore temps will cont mild behind the fropa, with above climo readings expected. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 AM Sat... Key Messages - VFR conditions expected through the TAF period VFR conditions are ongoing across all of ENC as of this update as high and mid clouds have moved out of the area. Currently under clear skies and calm winds across ENC as high pressure has moved overhead the Mid-Atlantic. Some patchy shallow ground fog is possible across the more susceptible terminals though this morning but no operational impacts are expected from this ground fog. As we get into the day on Sat VFR conditions will persist through the day and into tonight as high pressure gradually pushes offshore. This will allow calm winds to become SW`rly at about 5kts or so by mid morning Sat. As we get into the evening hours, a cold front begins approaching from the north and west which will allow for high and mid clouds to begin to build in from the west. Regardless ceilings will likely remain above 20 kft into 06Z Sun. Outlook: Increased chances for sub-VFR conditions developing after 06Z Sun into Sun afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Cold front should also bring a chance at some light precip which could also result in a brief period of lowered visibility as well. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Mon. VFR conditions return on Monday and persist through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages - Gale conditions Sun afternoon through Sun night for nnwrly winds 30-40 kt expected. Through Tonight...Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through today as high pres eases offshore. SW winds increase a bit into the 5-15 kt range today, though a bit higher in the Gulf waters with 10-20 kt expected. Tonight, gradient inc more with strengthening WAA expected, with SCA winds over the Gulf waters with 20-25 kt g 30 kt expected. Remainder of the waters will remain under a strong marine inversion and 10-15 kt expected. Seas in the 2-4 ft range through tonight. Sunday through Sunday night...Strong CAA begins Sun with passage of arctic front. Winds build to gales first in the coastal waters north of Ocracoke Sun afternoon, and have upgraded to gale warning here. Rest of the waters, sounds, and Alligator River build to gales Sun night, and remain in a 4th period gale watch. Seas peak 6-10 ft in the relatively short-lived gale Sun night. Monday...Winds die down quickly by early Mon morning with gales quickly diminishing to SCA conditions, mainly in lingering high seas, as high pres builds. Return flow already ensues Mon night with swrly flow 5-15 kt g 20 kt expected. May flirt with SCA again on the Gulf waters esp south of C Hatteras. Tuesday through Thursday...Winds abate and broad swrly flow in the 5-15 kt range expected, with generally good boating conditions expected with seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1254351 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 345 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 * Choppy to rough seas and life-threatening rip currents are expected to continue through the weekend across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. * Patches of moisture will continue to reach the islands today into Sunday, increasing passing shower activity. Limited afternoon convection possible over northwest PR. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers dragged by the trade winds will continue to move into the area today. * Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected across the islands this weekend. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today is expected to be the wettest day of the short term period due to a surge of moisture associated with a weak trade wind trough. This increase in moisture content, combined with daytime heating and orographic lift over the Cordillera Central, could lead to scattered to locally numerous showers, over central and western PR. However, a wetter pattern is expected late this afternoon and through tonight across the USVI and most coastal areas northern and southern PR, as well across the eastern half of PR as the trough crosses the local area. The precipitable water content is expected to peak close to 2 inches, well above normal levels. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, specially in an advective pattern across the waters between the USVI and eastern PR. Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the trough passage. In contrast, on Sunday a temporary break from the rain is expected as a pocket of drier and more stable air moves in from the east. Based on global guidance, this is evidenced by a significant drop in columnar moisture, with 850-700mb relative humidity levels dropping from near 50% today to 10% on Sunday, resulting in mostly sunny conditions with only isolated showers(0-20%). However, this drier phase will be short lived. As an increase in wind speeds and a subsequent return to higher mid-level moisture content is forecast between late Sunday night into Monday. This suggests that scattered showers(30-50%) will become more likely again as the synoptic pattern influenced by a pre-frontal trough shifts back to a more favorable setup for rainfall. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 The approach of a frontal system and its associated upper-level trough over the western Atlantic will promote unstable conditions during the first half of the long term period. Normal to slightly above-normal precipitable water content (PWAT) of 1.75 to 1.90 inches will enhance the potential for shower development across the region. Showers are most likely over portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours, followed by afternoon showers over portions of central and western Puerto Rico. During this period, the 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop into the -6C to -7C range, meaning the potential for afternoon thunderstorms, particularly across western Puerto Rico, cannot be ruled out. At the surface, a strong high-pressure system located over the central Atlantic will maintain an east-southeasterly wind flow across the area, promoting slightly higher than normal temperatures throughout the week. However, by the second half of the long-term period, another high-pressure system is expected to build over the western Atlantic behind the frontal system. By then, winds are expected to shift from the northeast, leading to cooler temperatures into the northeastern Caribbean region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions early in the period. However, SHRA with max tops around 15 kft are expected to continue to move from the Anegada Passage, and cause mostly -RA/VCSH across the USVI and eastern PR terminals early this morning. Late this evening and through the overnight hours, additional SHRA en route from the Leeward Islands associated to a weak surface trough could lead to tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds across the same terminals. Iso TSRA is possible, particularly btw 14/00z-06z. East winds expected to increase between 15 and 20 kt with sea breeze variations and stronger gusts aft 13/14z. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 A surface high pressure system will continue to build near the Azores through the weekend. A weak cold front and another surface high pressure system will move from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic over the next few days. This pattern will promote moderate to locally fresh east to southeast trade winds across the local waters. Increasing winds and a long-period northerly swell will result in choppy to rough seas, mainly across the Atlantic waters and portions of the Anegada and Mona Passages. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect at least through tomorrow morning across the passages and through Sunday afternoon across the offshore Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 304 AM AST Sat Dec 13 2025 A long-period northerly swell and increasing wind waves will create life-threatening rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of the islands over the next few days. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect for the northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as St. Thomas and St. John. Beachgoers are urged to avoid swimming in these conditions, particularly through late tonight. The west and south- facing beaches of the islands will experience a moderate risk of rip currents. For specific location information, please visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ012. VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST early this morning for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST today for AMZ723. && $$ |
| #1254350 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 236 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Benign weather is expected tonight into Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday night into Sunday, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and relatively mild today with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - A strong cold front brings low-end snow potential and blustery conditions late tonight and Sunday. Winter Weather Advisory issues for Dorchester and Wicomico Counties. Transient sfc high pressure is located along the coast early this morning, which will slide offshore today as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Latest obs show temps in the mid to upper 20s, which will likely stabilize as high level cloud cover moves into the area. Dry and relatively mild today ahead of tonight/tomorrow`s system. Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to mid 50s from I-64 south. A strong Arctic cold front is then set to cross through the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Precip associated with this front will enter far northern portions of the area after midnight, slowly spreading S/SE toward the I-64 corridor and lower Eastern Shore heading toward sunrise. S/SE progression continues through the morning before exiting offshore by early afternoon. This looks to be a case where cold air is chasing the precip, so the mode likely starts out as rain before transitioning to snow on the back- end. The 00z CAMs are generally consistent with keeping the most wide-spread snow/rain across the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps into the Northern Neck. The accumulation forecast has not changed too much from the previous forecast cycle. Currently calling for 1-2" on the MD Eastern Shore, primarily in Dorchester and Wicomico. Less than an inch of accumulation is forecast along and N of the I-64 corridor, omitting the Hampton Roads portion, and the lower Eastern Shore. Cannot rule out a trace/dusting for Hampton Roads should the changeover happen in time. A "reasonable worst case" would be 2-3" in Dorchester/Wicomico and up to 2" for the rest of the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. Went ahead and issues a Winter Weather Advisory for 1am-1pm Sunday for Dorchester and Wicomico with this in mind. Outside of precip chances, Sunday will be blustery as cold air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up by mid-morning Sunday and peak in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35mph will be possible. Highs range from the low 30s across the north to the low 40s in the SE, which will occur in the morning before temps drop in the afternoon. By mid-afternoon, wind chills could be as low as the mid teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Bitterly cold temps Sunday night/Monday morning with wind chills in the single digits. - Chilly and dry Monday and Monday night Strong cold air advection continues Sunday night ushering in bitterly cold temperatures. Much of the area will see temps in the upper teens by midnight with Monday morning lows in the mid-teens for most of the area and the upper teens to around 20F close to the coast. While winds will not be quite as strong as Sunday afternoon, there will be enough wind to knock wind chills down into the single digits for the entire area. Cold Weather Advisories are likely. The arctic sfc high slides in overhead Monday, leading to a cold and mostly sunny day with much less wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s. Not quite as cold on Monday with lows in the low to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... - Moderating temperatures expected through the middle of next week. - A potential front brings rain chances late-week Tuesday through Thursday will follow a warming trend once the strong high is suppressed to the SE and the UL trough lifts out. Highs on Tues look to be in the 40s, followed by the 50s on Wed, and around 60 on Thursday. Tuesday and Wed look dry, then a potential front returns rain chances to the forecast Thursday afternoon. Will say that there is not a lot of confidence in details on this front given the varying solutions from the global models. Behind the front temps cool again, but this time sticking closer to seasonal norms. Forecast highs for Friday are in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the 06/13 TAF period. Starting out with mostly clear skies, then high level cloud cover moves in from the N/NW later today ahead of tomorrow`s cold front. Winds will be calm to light and variable at times tonight, then SW winds of 5-10kt during the day. A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight into early Sunday. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix followed by all snow early morning through midday Sunday. Some flight restrictions may be possible with this front. Turning much colder/drier with gusty NNW winds (25-35kt) Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong, Arctic cold front crosses the waters early Sunday morning, with Gale conditions then expected later Sunday morning into Sunday night over all of the waters. - Light freezing spray is possible Sunday night. - Another round of SCAs is possible Monday night into early Tuesday. Early this morning, high pressure (~1020 mb) is centered over the waters resulting in light and variable winds. Seas are averaging 1 to 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 foot or less. High pressure will center further offshore later this morning and a warm front will lift north over the waters. As the warm front lifts north, winds become S to SW and increase to around 10 knots (10 to 15 knots northern coastal waters). Meanwhile, a strong, Arctic cold front will be approaching from the NW today and is expected to cross the waters tonight into early Sunday morning. This will be the main focus of the forecast period. In the wake of the strong cold front early Sunday morning, very cold and dry air advects into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft will mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters helping create very windy conditions. Winds rapidly increase and become NW Sunday morning, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots and gusts of 35+ knots expected by late morning-early afternoon over a majority of the waters. Winds increase further during the afternoon- evening hours, peaking between roughly ~00z to 06z Monday, sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots and gusts up to 45 knots are expected during this timeframe. Winds then diminish, eventually falling below Gale thresholds everywhere by ~12z, and below SCA thresholds by Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds back into the area. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings for all of the waters Sunday- Sunday night. SCAs will likely be needed late Sunday night into Monday as Gale headlines begin to drop off. In addition to the wind, seas build to 5 to 9 feet by Sunday night, though the offshore component of the wind should help to keep seas from building further. Waves in the Bay will build to 4 to 6 feet. Finally, some freezing spray is possible Sunday night as the bitterly cold air filters into the area in combination with the strong winds. However, marginal water temperatures (low to mid 40s) should help to keep any freezing spray on the lighter side. Calmer conditions are anticipated later Monday, though a brief surge of S-SW wind may lead to additional SCA headlines (mainly over the Chesapeake Bay) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Sub- SCA conditions then return Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front may bring increasing winds Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MDZ021-022. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. && $$ |
| #1254349 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 233 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Mostly dry and seasonable weather through Saturday afternoon. A few showers may develop late Saturday afternoon and Sunday as a front reaches central Florida. - Moderate risk of rip currents continues today for all Atlantic beaches. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1252 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Patchy to areas of smoke was added to the grids along the western portion of Alligator Alley in Collier County. Area web cams show some smoke near MM 98 on I-75. This may briefly increase in coverage as the Gulf breeze kicks in this afternoon before becoming fairly localized this evening as the winds decrease. High pressure remains in control today resulting in plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Moisture begins to increase tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary starts to lift north resulting in a chance of showers over SE FL during the second half of tomorrow and a better chance across South FL on Sunday. Drier and cooler weather still appears on track early next week as another cold front is projected to cross the state. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Models show good agreement in bringing deep high pressure over the area in the wake of a dry FROPA, which will keep generally dry and pleasant weather conditions in place today with no mentionable POPs. As the sfc ridge moves into the northern half of the peninsula, winds across SoFlo to a more easterly flow today. 00Z MFL sounding data depicts very dry air above 850mb, along with PWATs around 0.6 inches. Model PWATs go even lower (0.4-0.5 inches). The air mass will remain fairly stable today with mild temperatures and pleasant weather conditions prevailing. Afternoon highs will remain in the upper 70s or around 80 near the Gulf coast. Similar conditions continue on Saturday, except for a light modification of the air mass allowing for highs to be a couple of degrees warmer. Coldest temps will remain around the Lake region with Saturday morning lows in the mid-upper 50s, while the metro areas of Soflo should remain in the upper 60s. Some low-level moisture also filters into the southern-most areas of the CWA Saturday afternoon, with NBM bringing 20-30 POPs for much of Miami-Dade. Thus, a few passing showers will be possible, mainly south of I-75. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 For Sunday, ensembles show a strong mid/upper low developing over the NE CONUS migrating east, which drags an associated sfc boundary into the SE states and northern Florida. This will weaken the ridge and allow for additional moisture to push northward across SoFlo, with 20-40 POPs mainly north of I-75, and up to 60 percent chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms for the Atlantic metro areas Sunday late morning and early afternoon. The front impacts should be short-lived as reinforcing high pressure quickly follows. By Sunday evening, another shot of northerly flow will bring colder/drier air advection across Soflo. POPs drop back to single digits on Monday, and close to zero through the rest of the long term. Coolest days should be Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70s. Coldest morning should happen Tuesday before sunrise with lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s around Glades and northern Hendry counties. Warming trend then follows on Wednesday with highs back into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR continue today at all terminals until around 00Z. Light and variable flow will become easterly by 15Z. Mainly clear skies for through this morning, then becoming cloudy by the mid-late afternoon hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are possible for eastern sites this evening as showers or even isolated thunderstorms begin developing tonight. Winds will shift to a more northerly flow and become breezy/gusty overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Moderate easterly winds continue through early Sunday, then winds shift northerly and increasing behind a frontal passage. Conditions will likely reach advisory levels by Monday morning with the stronger winds, especially over the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, conditions should remain fairly benign through the weekend with a few showers returning to the southern Atlantic waters by Saturday. Gulf Stream Hazards: None. && .BEACHES... Issued at 311 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 A moderate risk of rip currents continues for all Atlantic beaches today. The risk will again increase early next week with the passage of another frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 69 81 65 / 20 70 50 20 West Kendall 81 65 82 62 / 20 70 50 10 Opa-Locka 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 Homestead 81 68 81 64 / 30 70 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 81 65 / 10 70 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 69 81 66 / 10 70 50 20 Pembroke Pines 81 67 82 64 / 10 70 50 20 West Palm Beach 79 68 81 65 / 0 60 40 20 Boca Raton 81 68 82 65 / 10 60 50 20 Naples 82 66 81 59 / 10 50 30 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254348 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 226 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -Temperatures warm through the weekend, then cooler air returns early next week. -Hazardous marine conditions expected Sunday night through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 High pressure overhead is allowing clear skies, calm winds, and cool weather this morning. Temperatures will be warming up quickly this afternoon as highs near 80 degrees. As we head into the overnight period the cold front that pushed through Thursday morning will start to lift north over South Florida. This will result in some isolated showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Florida. The increase moisture will also help to develop fog in most places Sunday morning. However, the cold front will already start to get pushed south once again by Sunday afternoon as a different cold front start to push into the Southeast. This second cold front will push through Sunday night bringing much cooler conditions to start our next work week. Highs on Monday will stay in the 60`s for most of with breezy conditions out of the north. The coldest morning will be on Tuesday with 30`s and 40`s north of I-4 and 50`s south. Temperatures will start to trend upward Wednesday through Friday as high pressure starts to move off the eastern seaboard and into the Atlantic. Widespread 80`s for highs will return by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions through the period with winds generally staying below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Winds will remain out of the east between 5 to 10 knots on Saturday. By Sunday we will see a cold front push the Gulf. As the cold front passes winds will quickly shift north and increase to 20 to 25 knots by Sunday night. These hazardous boating conditions will continue throughout the day on Monday but the pressure gradient should start to loosen by Monday night. This will result in winds coming down to 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday and coming down even farther to 5 to 10 knots by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Moisture will slowly start to return today as the cold front that pushed through on Thursday will start to lift north again. Min RH during the weekend will be in the 50`s. A cold front will start to push through Sunday night bringing breezy conditions on Monday. RHs will dip slightly but stay above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 62 78 50 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 81 65 81 56 / 0 30 20 0 GIF 78 61 80 50 / 0 10 10 0 SRQ 79 62 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 BKV 78 53 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 64 76 54 / 0 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1254347 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 115 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog may develop this morning across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. Additionally, there is a low chance for sea fog to develop and linger throughout the day on Saturday across portions of coastal Alabama. - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will likely become necessary. - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 An upper-level trough is expected to dig southeastward throughout the weekend. As it does so, it will help to push a strong cold front through the area on Sunday. Prior to the passage of the front, high pressure to our east will keep a light onshore flow pattern in place through tonight. This will give way to a rather mild and humid day today, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. The biggest forecast challenge over the next few hours is the possibility of fog developing. Although the environment is primed for fog to develop prior to sunrise (dew points increased into the mid to upper 50s, light winds, and subsidence from the nearby high), a deck of mid-level clouds is currently streaming across the local region, helping to prevent fog from developing as of 1am. Looking at satellite and obs over south central Mississippi, it seems like the cloud deck is slowly starting to erode, and underneath these cloud breaks are where obs are beginning to report dense fog. We will keep an eye on this throughout the remainder of the overnight hours. As of issuance time, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for coastal counties, as well as Stone and George counties. If clouds continue to erode and fog begins to develop over interior counties, then we will likely need to expand the advisory northward. Although fog should dissipate after sunrise for most areas, HREF probabilities do continue to keep a low potential for sea fog to develop and stick around throughout the day on Saturday over portions of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi sound, and surrounding areas. Additionally, another round of fog may develop later tonight/early Sunday morning prior to the passage of the front, primarily over coastal counties. Outside of fog potential, rain chances will be on the increase this afternoon and especially as we get into tonight due to moisture pooling out ahead of the front and weak forcing. Rain will likely start off as light, warm air advection showers this afternoon, transitioning to a broken line of light to moderate rainfall by the overnight hours. No thunderstorms are expected due to a lack of instability. We dry out by mid-Sunday morning as the cold front sweeps through. We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for Sunday night and into Monday as an arctic high pressure system builds in behind the front. With the front likely moving through during the morning hours on Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day as strong cold air advection commences. Lows Sunday night are expected to plummet down to the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. Factoring in breezy conditions likely continuing through Sunday night due to a tight pressure gradient, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 9-15 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we will likely reach our Cold Weather Advisory criteria for Sunday night across the entire area, although it should be noted that several areas now are flirting with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Regardless of which product ultimately gets issued, residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather. Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Low rain chances may also return to the area by late week. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. There continues to be a signal for fog and low ceilings to develop over the next few hours, possibly bringing reductions in visibilities and ceilings to IFR or lower. This potential, however, is dependent on whether or not mid-level clouds will erode. Any fog/low ceilings that do manage to develop should begin to dissipate/lift a little after sunrise for most areas. The exception being for locations along coastal Alabama, where sea fog may linger through the daytime hours is still possible over the next few hours. Winds will generally be light out of the south through the period. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. We will have to monitor for the potential of sea fog developing this morning and lingering through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over the Gulf waters. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 48 60 23 / 20 50 30 0 Pensacola 72 53 63 28 / 10 40 30 0 Destin 71 55 64 31 / 10 30 30 0 Evergreen 72 43 56 21 / 20 60 20 0 Waynesboro 69 40 51 19 / 30 70 10 0 Camden 68 40 51 19 / 20 70 10 0 Crestview 73 49 60 22 / 10 40 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ078-079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254346 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 153 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mild conditions today and tonight ahead of an arctic cold front Sunday morning. Ahead of the front light showers will move across the region. Unseasonably cold temperatures arrive Sunday night and linger through Monday night. Temperatures will gradually warm up next week as high pressure moves overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sill remaining under the longwave upper troff this period. Sfc high overhead this morning, will slide off the Carolina Coasts later this morning. This will leave a rather weak sfc pg across Southeast NC and Northeast SC, under mainly clear skies. The upper trof to amplify later today thru tonight, forcing the nearly 1050 mb arctic high S and SE ward. By the end of this period, later tonight, the Arctic high will be on the doorsteps of the FA along with the Arctic front. Increasing moisture, mainly during the pre-dawn Sun hrs, will result in clouds increasing and the threat for pcpn mainly far NW portions of the ILM CWA. Look for increasing temps this period that should actually run slightly above normal for this time of the year. Normal is generally in the mid to upper 50s for maxes and lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the short term will be the unseasonably cold air, the coldest of this young season in fact. Strong cold front on the doorstep Sun morning which surges across the area and offshore by midday. Ahead of the front a narrow, but deep, stream of moisture will push precipitable water over 200% of normal. Low level convergence and limited dynamical forcing as weak low moves along the front should lead to a swath of showers moving across the forecast area during the morning. Widely scattered showers will likely be ongoing across the western half of the area at daybreak Sun. Strong cold advection will lead to temperatures falling through the day, even as skies clear out behind the front. Highs will occur in the morning, making the high temp forecast tricky. Most areas will end up within sight of normal, but Sun morning is the last time temperatures will be within shouting distance of normal until the middle of next week, maybe. 850mb temperatures drop from 6 to 8C Sun morning to -6 to -10C just 12 hours later. Winds will be gusty Sun afternoon as the cold air announces its arrival, leading to a very raw day. Lows Sun night will approach records with mid teens across the area. However, the bigger concern will be the wind chill. Values will drop under 10 degrees in some areas. Cold advection ends by Mon morning, with even a hint of some warm advection later in the day. Not that it will do much against the dense cold air. Highs Mon end up right around 40, or just below it. Lows Mon night in the low to mid 20s with much less wind making it feel almost 20 degrees warmer than the night before. As moist as the pre-frontal air is, the post front air mass will be extremely dry. Precipitable water drops to 10% of normal by Sun evening, under 0.10". Slight uptick in moisture for Mon with pwat around 0.20". The lack of moisture will keep skies clear through Mon night once clouds clear out in the post front regime. Afternoon humidity will drop to near 20% Mon afternoon and wouldn`t be shocked to see values dip into the teens. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Arctic high from the beginning of the week will be overhead Tue morning. Temperatures will climb close to 30 degrees by afternoon, although highs will still fall several degrees short of normal. Weak warm advection continues through Thu with highs back near normal Wed and above normal Thu. Although low level moisture makes a quick return, dry air aloft hangs around through Wed night. Another cold front approaches from the northwest later Thu, bringing with it some scattered showers. The front end the week is the polar opposite of the one that starts the week. The incoming air mass has its origins in the Pacific Maritimes, not Arctic Canada. Much less cold air and little to no dry air. Temperatures will drop a bit Fri and Fri night, but the region will still be at or just above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail thruout the 24 hr 06Z Taf Issuance period. Latest GFSLamp guidance has retracted the MVFR fog and/or low stratus cloud possibilities during the pre-dawn Sat hrs. Otherwise, looking at occasional thin/opaque cirrus during the 24 hr period. Sfc high to push off the Carolina coasts today allowing variable (will identify a best direction) winds at 5 kt or less to become SW around 5 kt thru this evening. Arctic front drops to the western Carolinas by 06Z with some opaque cirrus and/or altocu by the end of this 24 hr period. Extended Outlook...Low level wind shear remains possible late Saturday night. Surface wind gusts over 30 knots are possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in the wake of a strong arctic cold frontal passage. Otherwise VFR conditions should continue through the extended period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Expect Light and variable (will identify a best direction in lieu of going variable) winds during the pre- dawn hrs into daylight Sat. The sfc high will slide off the Carolina Coasts later today, resulting in winds becoming SW 5 to 10 kt. As the Arctic front approaches the waters from the NW, look for SW winds to increase to possibly SCA levels late tonight. Seas will follow suit, at their lowest at the start of this period, building as sfc winds increase. Majority of the seas will result from short period wind waves. An underlying but small SE ground swell to remain present and accounted for. Sunday through Wednesday... Strong cold front moves across the waters around midday Sun with offshore flow ramping up late Sun and Sun night as cold air surges into the region. Borderline SCA/Gale event, holding off for now on issuance of any headlines given the uncertainty/low confidence. Do have high confidence of almost 24 hours of nasty marine conditions, late Sun through midday Mon. However, once speeds drop under 10 kt Mon evening winds will remain 10 kt or less through Wed. Seas are quick to ramp up to 4-7 ft late Sun into Mon, but then rapidly fall later Mon, ending up 2-3 ft Mon night. A northerly wind wave will be the dominant wave Sun night and Mon. Seas 2 ft or less Tue and Wed with a weak southeast swell being dominant. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1254345 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 155 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Patchy to areas of fog is expected this morning across the Tri- State region. Fog could be dense in some locations. - A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday. Cold weather products are expected to be issued for Sun-Mon and Mon-Tue. Dangerously cold wind chills are expected Monday morning, with a medium (30-60%) chance for a Hard Freeze (temps below 25 degrees) on Tuesday morning for our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties. - Gale conditions are likely later Sunday into Monday morning for the Gulf waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Patchy to areas of fog, with dense fog possible, is expected to develop this morning and may linger into the late morning hours. The most likely locations for dense fog will be in the AL and GA wiregrass regions and the FL Big Bend region. Surface high pressure still keeping us warm and dry during the day. Light southerly winds with highs in the low 70s this afternoon. There is a slight chance for showers very late tonight in SE Alabama. This will be dependent on the forward speed of the approaching cold front, which may delay the rain until daybreak Sunday morning. Temperatures this morning and tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, and warming to the low 50s along the Emerald Coast for tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 One would think this should be a slam-dunk forecast but, alas, reality is not so simple. A strong cold front is expected to push through the region beginning Sunday morning through the evening hours. Just ahead of the front, there is a slight chance (30-40%) for showers in our SE Alabama counties during the morning hours on Sunday, as well as patchy fog for the FL Big Bend region. As the front comes through, winds will quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 25 mph and become more northerly through the night. The wind gusts will decrease during the day Monday. Colder temperatures are expected behind the front but, the there is uncertainty in how quickly the colder temperatures will move into the region and also how cold it will get for Monday and Tuesday mornings. - When the cold front arrives, our AL and GA counties may experience falling temperatures during the day on Sunday, with the highest temp of the day occurring in the morning. This will depend on how strong the cold air advection is following the frontal passage as well as the timing of the passage. - The wind behind the front through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday will be a gentle breeze around 10 mph, which would be enough to create wind chills (feels-like temperatures) in the upper teens to low 20s by Monday morning. For areas along and north of I-10, there is currently a high chance of experiencing wind chills below 25 degrees Monday morning. The same area has at least a 25% chance of experiencing wind chills below 20 degrees. These wind chills are expected to reach criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory will needing to be issued for this time period. The coastal panhandle should finally experience their first freeze of the season Monday morning. Due to that, they may need a Freeze Warning for this time period, along with the aforementioned Cold Weather Advisory. - As the winds decrease during the day Monday, the wind chills will moderate. However, temperatures will be struggling to make it out of the 40s for much of the region. There is uncertainty as the winds may shift easterly during the day, allowing for moisture return and some cloud cover to begin Monday. This could allow for temperatures to be a little warmer on Monday (low 50s instead of upper 40s), particularly for our eastern counties along the I-75 corridor and SE FL Big Bend. - Winds will be light to calm Monday night into Tuesday with mostly clear skies. The CAA won`t be active, so we will have to rely on radiational cooling and the location of the surface high. For Tuesday morning, due to the light/calm winds, wind chills will be the same or close to the actual temperatures. Forecast temperatures will be in the low to mid-20s, with temps in the low 30s along the immediate coast and SE Big Bend. There is a medium chance (30-60%) for temps to fall below 25 degrees for our AL and GA counties. This would be the night for a Freeze (Hard Freeze) Warning in our AL and GA counties. During the day Tuesday, temperatures will gradually warm as an upper level ridge begins to build. Temps will warm to the upper 50s and low 60s, and continue this warming trend through Friday with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 The beginnings of the low stratus and fog is developing around the Florida Big Bend with observations from TLH to FPY and CTY of reduced vsbys or low stratus. This trend will continue through the night with expansion further north and west. Short term models indicate IFR to LIFR at all terminals beginning now and over the next few hours and persisting into mid morning. Pockets of VLIFR at times from roughly 10-14Z with the highest probs at inland terminals. Once the degraded flight conditions improve back to VFR later in the morning, VFR is forecast to continue through the end of the TAF period with light southerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Tranquil boating conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of this week with winds becoming easterly/southeasterly by this afternoon. On Sunday, a cold front will push through during the day. Strong to near Gale sustained northerly winds with gale force wind gusts are expected for Sunday night into Monday morning with seas around 8 feet in our offshore waters. Conditions will then begin to relax late Monday heading into Tuesday with more favorable boating conditions returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Low dispersions are expected area-wide this afternoon. A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday, increasing transport winds to 20-25 mph from the north and dispersions into a moderate range. Ahead of the front, there is about a 40% chance for showers in our SE Alabama districts. Freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night and Monday night with northerly transwinds around 20 mph Sunday night. Dew points will fall into the single digits and teens for Monday, resulting in MinRH values between 20 and 30 percent for much of the region in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 150 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 A strong cold front brings a 10 to 40 percent chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the highest chances across Southeastern Alabama. However, there are no flooding concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 49 67 30 / 0 0 20 0 Panama City 71 55 67 31 / 0 10 20 0 Dothan 72 51 61 26 / 0 40 20 0 Albany 69 51 60 25 / 0 30 20 0 Valdosta 72 47 67 26 / 0 0 20 0 Cross City 74 48 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 55 68 35 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254344 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 135 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail today, then an arctic cold front will sweep through Sunday. Dry high pressure will then rebuild into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a zonal west-southwest flow will prevail across the Southeast United States in advance of a large trough digging across the North-Central United States and Midwest. At the sfc, dry high pressure will dominate the pattern, resulting in a light southwest wind and warmer conditions under sunny/mostly sunny skies. In general, high temps should range in the mid-upper 60s across Southeast South Carolina and around 70 degrees across Southeast Georgia. Should these temps occur, it will be the warmest day experienced in the month of December thus far. Tonight: Aloft, a zonal flow prevails for much of the night in advance of the digging trough across the Midwest. At the sfc, the Atlantic high will extend across the Southeast, while some troughing develops north and inland overnight. Although the pressure gradient remains modest between these features, conditions will remain noticeably more mild than the previous night while a light southwesterly wind advects warmer air into the region well in advance of a cold front arriving the next day. In general, lows should only dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s, remaining warmest along the coast. Some guidance even hints at the potential for some patchy fog late as sfc dewpts increase. However, the arrival of some clouds should limit the coverage of fog late night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Bitter Cold Temperatures expected much of this period... Sunday: A strong/arctic cold front is still shown by all models to push through the region between late Sunday morning and early/mid Sunday afternoon. High temperatures of 60-65 will likely be reached just ahead of the front through early afternoon, then begin falling through the 50s during the afternoon behind the front. Latest blended guidance has increased PoPs to low end chance levels over much of our SC zones, and 15-24% for much of our GA zones. Any precip. along and ahead of the front will be in the form of showers, since it will be too warm at that time for any frozen precip.. QPF values are expected to be generally less than 0.10 inch. West- southwest winds in the morning, will veer sharply to northwest and increase behind the front by afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible. By Sunday night, a strong arctic surface ridge will build from the northwest, keeping northwest to north winds through the night. Temperatures expected to drop into the upper teens well inland, and lower to mid 20s else where, warmest near the coast. Wind chill values all areas expected to reach Cold Weather Advisory levels /20 degrees to 11 degrees/ all areas, and could dip to 10 degrees or colder over portions of the northern area, where we currently have a Extreme Cold Watch in place. Monday: Deep ridging is shown by all models to settle over the region, with lighter winds and mostly sunny/sunny skies. Despite full sun, guidance continues to hold high temperatures to 40 to 45, 15 to 20 degrees below normal! Monday night, high pressure will start centered over the region, then slowly shift offshore by late night. Light winds, clear skies and dry low levels should allow for strong radiational cooling. Very cold temperatures again expected, with lows around 20 well inland, to the mid 20s to near 30 closer to the coast. Tuesday: This period begins the moderation in temperatures, with the surface ridge shifting further offshore, allowing for low level winds to veer to southwest by afternoon. Under mostly sunny skies, highs rebounding into the 50s all areas, which is still a tad below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... All global and blended model solutions show that the large scale/synoptic pattern shifts to zonal, with moderating temperatures through the period. Tuesday night will be the coldest period, with freezing temperatures again expected inland, and mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. Then Wednesday through Saturday, temperatures continue to warm, with temperatures near normal on Wednesday, to above normal Thursday through Saturday. The biggest forecast issue for this period will be how to handle the model differences with chances for precip. late in the period. Some models indicate the potential for another cold front to approach the area later Thursday and early Friday, but timing and amount of deep layer moisture vary between models. For now, the blended model solution brings back slight chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night. This will likely need adjusting with later forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Sunday through mid week. However, a strong arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with gusty winds Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the day and night, leading to quiet marine conditions across local waters today, but a noticeable uptick in wind speeds as a modest pressure gradient develops late night. In general, south- southwest winds should top out around 10 kt today, then increase to 10-15 kt this evening. A few wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible across northern South Carolina waters and outer Georgia waters late night. Seas will range between 1-2 ft today, then build about a foot overnight. ...Hazardous Marine Conditions later Sunday into Monday... A strong arctic cold front will move through the waters on Sunday, likely passing through the entire region by late afternoon. Southwest winds will veer sharply to northwest during Sunday afternoon, increasing to high end SCA levels, to possibly low end Gale conditions, especially for AMZ350 and AMZ374. Hazardous conditions, especially for seas, are expected to remain through later Monday, especially beyond 20 nm offshore. Winds and seas are expected to fall below any highlight levels Tuesday through Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 15/1962 KCXM: 23/1943 KSAV: 19/1962 Record Low Maximum Temperatures: December 15: KCHS: 39/1943 KCXM: 38/1904 KSAV: 38/1904 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GAZ087-088. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ040-042>045-050-052. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ047>049-051. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1254343 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 114 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Mostly dry conditions continue through Saturday, with rain and lightning storm chances returning Sunday mainly across the Treasure Coast as a warm front lifts northward across the area. - Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures into this weekend before turning noticeably cooler on Monday behind the next cold front that will push through Sunday evening/night. - Breezy to windy conditions developing Sunday night through Monday as north to northeast winds increase across the area. These winds will produce very hazardous boating and surf conditions early next week, with beach erosion possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Rest of Today-Saturday... Upper level low pressure system across Maine and New Brunswick area today will continue to shift northeast Saturday as a new low pressure system develops by the Great Plains and moves into the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Surface high pressure axis, centered across the Great Plains, will build southeast across the Deep South through the period as high pressure across the Atlantic waters builds over the Florida peninsula. Locally, dry conditions will dominate, with no mentionable rain chances through the period. Dry air will continue to filter across the area through Saturday, with forecast PW values around 0.5" today, increasing to 0.7-1.0" on Saturday. Light and variable winds today will become northeast to east by Saturday morning before veering east to southeast Saturday afternoon with speeds at 5-10 mph once again. Guidance is hinting at patchy fog developing late tonight into early Saturday morning across portions of east central Florida, mainly from Orlando south to Lake Okeechobee (staying west of I-95). Confidence is not high this will occur. However, given the light winds and the high pressure building overhead as well as the HREF continuing to show it, have maintained patchy fog in those area in the forecast. Remember if you encounter fog while driving, slow down and use your headlights. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for this time of year tonight and Saturday. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s across the area today before warming to the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south tonight, warming low to mid 50s across the far north to mid 60s across the far south on Saturday night. Sunday-Monday... The upper level low pressure over the Great Plains will move into the Great Lakes region on Sunday before deepening and moving eastward towards Maine through Monday. At the surface, a strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward into the Deep South on Monday with the axis building over the Florida peninsula. The frontal boundary across South Florida will lift northward as a warm front into Sunday. This will result in an increase in cloud cover as well as a return of rain chances across the local area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain from southern Brevard/Osceola southward on Sunday, with a low (20 percent) chance of lightning storms mainly across the Treasure Coast and southern Okeechobee county. The next cold front will push across east central Florida Sunday evening into Sunday night. This will be a dry frontal passage, with no mentionable rain chances Sunday night through Monday. However, winds will increase across the local area as the axis of the strong high pressure builds over the Florida peninsula, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in a period of windy conditions (especially along the coast) Sunday night into Monday. North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Sunday will increase to 10- 15 mph (and 15-20 mph along the coast) Sunday night with gusts 20-30 mph through Monday. A wind advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday. Those strong winds will also result in rough, pounding surf and minor beach erosion during that time (roughly encompassing 1-2 high tide cycles). A High Surf advisory may be needed. Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday before becoming noticeably cooler behind the front on Monday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday before dropping to low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across the south on Monday. Overnight lows will range from upper 40s across the far north to low 60s across the far south on Sunday night, and range from low 40s across the far north and near 60 degrees across the far south on Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the period, with no mentionable rain chances over land areas. However, there remains a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers across the Atlantic waters each day. Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Today-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the Atlantic waters will produce favorable boating conditions today and Saturday. Light and variable winds will turn more easterly this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Winds then shift east to southeast on Saturday with speeds around 10 KT, becoming northwest and increasing to 15-20 KT on Sunday. Seas will be 2-4ft today, decreasing to 1-3ft on Saturday before increasing to 2-4ft on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions through Saturday, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms on Sunday. Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday out of the north as strong high pressure builds over the waters behind a cold front. The tight north-northeast pressure gradient will support wind speeds 20- 30 KT with gusts to Gale force Sunday night. Seas will rapidly build 6-9 FT nearshore and up to 12 ft in the Gulf Stream. NE winds decrease 15-20 KT by late Monday and veer E/NE Tuesday at 10-15 KT. Seas will be slower to subside, reaching 4-5 FT nearshore Tuesday with lingering 7 FT seas in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Mainly VFR conditions forecast at ECFL terminals through the TAF period. Guidance continues to show low and inconsistent chances for patchy fog through early morning, primarily at KVRB-KSUA. Haven`t seen any noteworthy fog development on satellite imagery and traffic cameras yet (just a little MIFG here and there), so kept the TAFs VFR with this package and will AMD as needed. Any fog that manages to develop expected to clear by around 13Z. Light/VRB winds turn ESE-SE in the afternoon at 5-10 kts, highest along the coast, then becoming light/VRB again after 23Z. Better chances for fog development late tonight into early Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 77 60 78 52 / 0 10 10 0 MLB 77 61 78 57 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 77 61 79 59 / 0 20 30 10 LEE 76 57 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 77 58 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 77 59 78 50 / 0 10 10 0 FPR 78 61 79 59 / 0 30 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1254342 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1207 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Near to below normal temperatures in the wake of our next cold front Sunday - Dense fog expected tonight into tomorrow morning - Low to medium chance for rain this weekend ahead of Sunday cold front && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 One more warm day is expected Saturday before our next cold front arrives late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures in the wake of the front will cool to near to below normal Sunday through Tuesday. Unfortunately, another warming trend will begin Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week with above normal temperatures. As moisture continues to increase with southerly flow, another night of dense fog is expected tonight from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads. Apart from the low chance (20- 25%) for a few streamer showers this morning, Saturday will remain relatively dry with rain chances increasing Sunday to low to medium (25-55%) levels with the frontal passage. Rain chances for next week are looking bleak at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Areas of dense fog is expected overnight leading to IFR/LIFR conditions, mainly for CRP, ALI and VCT TAFs sites. LRD and COT are expected to also have fog around sunrise, but IFR conditions should be brief. VFR conditions return by mid morning Saturday and continue through the afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds most of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A gentle southeast flow is expected to continue through Saturday night before our next cold front swings through and shifts winds to the northeast and strengthening to a fresh to strong (BF 5-6) breeze. Winds will remain elevated through Sunday night before weakening to a moderate breeze Monday. Medium (40-70%) rain chances are expected Saturday through Sunday as our next cold front approaches and swings through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Despite the passage of our next cold front, relative humidity levels are expected to remain above 30% with relatively light to moderate winds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 62 70 44 / 20 20 30 0 Victoria 80 55 66 34 / 30 20 10 0 Laredo 81 61 70 49 / 0 10 60 10 Alice 82 59 70 43 / 20 20 30 0 Rockport 75 60 68 44 / 30 20 20 0 Cotulla 80 57 65 43 / 0 10 20 0 Kingsville 82 61 71 45 / 20 10 30 0 Navy Corpus 74 64 69 49 / 30 20 30 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ230>234- 240>247-342>347-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254341 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1254 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Benign weather is expected tonight into Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday night into Sunday, with some accumulating snow possible Sunday. Arctic air moves in behind the cold front Sunday night, and provides a cold start to next week. The very cold temperatures do quickly give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 250 PM EST Friday... Key Message: - Mostly clear and chilly tonight with lows in the mid 20s to around 30F. - Partly to mostly sunny and milder Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Weak high pressure is centered from the upper Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Meanwhile, a sheared apart shortwave trough and subtle surface low are sliding across the Carolinas through the base of a broad upper trough. Mid and high clouds are thinning across the region this afternoon and any radar returns (that produced little to no precip/light snow due to a dry sub-cloud layer) are largely pushing S of the local area. Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the mid 30s to around 40F. Weak high pressure builds into the area tonight. Mostly clear with some increasing cirrus clouds across the N late. Forecast lows are in the mid 20s to around 30F. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will allow surface high pressure to slide offshore Saturday. Partly sunny N to mostly sunny S with an overall increase in cirrus clouds through the afternoon. Milder, but still slightly below to near average, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s N to mid 50s S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - An Arctic cold front crosses into the region Sunday, ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some snow is possible with the Arctic frontal passage, especially from the Neck to the Eastern Shore. A vigorous upper trough digs across the central Appalachians Saturday night and then SE along the southern Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday along with an associated strong arctic cold front. A band of snow (may begin as rain) is expected to spread across the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Farther SE, as of now, the situation looks to be cold air chasing moisture, which points toward a scenario of rain ending as a brief period of snow for Hampton Roads and NE NC. 12/12z ensemble probs are decently aligned with the GEFS bringing its >1" probs a touch further south than the EPS, but the main difference is that the GEFS has some low 1" probs for SE VA/NE NC, but this is an outlier compared to EPS/EC AI ens./CMC ens. The ECMWF shows 50-80% across the far north, while the GEFS is similar for the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore with less back into the NW Piedmont. 3" probs are negligible for the local area. Forecast snow accumulation is in line with these with 1-1.5" in Dorchester MD, 0.5-1" for the Northern Neck and the rest of the MD Eastern Shore, and <0.5" nearly down to the US-460 corridor. The main accumulation period based on current timing would be between 09-15z Sunday across the NE, and 12-18z Sunday farther S/SE. The front then exits offshore Sunday afternoon, possibly putting down a dusting of snow at the coast as precipitation quickly ends as a dry arctic airmass arrives from the NW (dewpoints falling into the single digits). Highs will range from the mid 30s across the N to the mid 40s in the SE. Temperatures drop quickly behind the front Sunday afternoon/evening. Northwest winds become rather gusty behind the front as well, leading to wind chills as low as the teens by mid evening. NW wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected inland with 30-40 mph toward the coast. Breezy conditions are forecast for Sunday night into Monday as an Arctic airmass and weakening but still 1035+mb high move into the region behind the cold front. NW wind gusts of 20-30mph will still be possible toward the coast Sunday night. The wind will relax farther inland, but still remain NW 5-10 mph through much of the night into early Monday morning. Temperatures drop quickly Sunday night as strong CAA ensues. Many locations could experience temperatures in the teens early in the night, dropping into the mid- teens (potentially colder) by sunrise. Even immediately near the coast, forecast lows are only around 20F. Wind chills will be in the single digits for the entire area. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The wind relaxes later Monday morning into the afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. Regardless, sunny and chilly with highs in the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Friday... - Moderating temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week. High pressure weakens but remains over the region Monday night, and will be slow to move offshore Tuesday. Lows Monday night will likely drop to 20-25F inland (with some upper teens possible) with mid 20s to around 30F at the immediate coast. High temperatures moderate Tuesday, but remain below seasonal averages, and range from the lower 40s N to mid 40s S. A warming trend commences Wednesday once sfc high pressure is suppressed to the SE and the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Forecast highs moderate into the lower/mid 50s Wednesday, and around 60F Thursday. Lows will still be chilly and in the mid 20s to lower 30s Wednesday morning, and then mid/upper 30s Thursday morning. A cold front potentially pushes through the area Thursday night dropping temperatures back to near seasonal averages late week. Dry through Wednesday, with low rain chances returning later Thursday/Thursday night, before trending drier late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the 06/13 TAF period. Starting out with mostly clear skies, then high level cloud cover moves in from the N/NW later today ahead of tomorrow`s cold front. Winds will be calm to light and variable at times tonight, then SW winds of 5-10kt during the day. A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight into early Sunday. This could bring a period of a rain/snow mix followed by all snow early morning through midday Sunday. Some flight restrictions may be possible with this front. Turning much colder/drier with gusty NNW winds (25-35kt) Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions prevail Sunday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions are expected through the first half of the weekend. - Gales are expected as a strong cold front moves across the local waters Sunday into Monday morning. Afternoon weather analysis shows a weak high pressure over the area. With the high pressure in control, benign marine conditions have been noted across all waters with light northerly wind between 5 to 10 kt. Seas remain low with around 1 ft waves across the bay and 2 to 3 ft waves across the ocean. Through tonight into Saturday, a warm front is expected to move across the area shifting winds to the SW. Winds are not expected to increase much and marine conditions will remain benign. Winds on Saturday will be around 10 kt with perhaps some 15 kt sustained winds across the far northern ocean waters closer to where the front will stall. Seas will remain low with around 1 ft waves remaining across the bay and 2 to 3 ft waves across the ocean. All eyes then turn to Sunday where Gale force winds are expected across all waters. A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area starting as early as Sunday morning. Behind this front, much colder and drier air will advect into the region. Extremely cold temperatures aloft will mix down to the surface across (relatively) warmer waters helping create very windy conditions. With decent model agreement in the cold temperatures aloft and with local wind probs showing 90%+ chances for wind gusts >= 34 knots, a Gale Watch has been issued for all waters from Sunday morning to Monday morning. Winds are expected to be out of the NW between 30 to 35 kt sustained and gusts upwards of 40 to 45 kt. Over the upper rivers, the winds may not be as high, however, winds will still be around 30 kt with gusts upwards of 35 to perhaps 40 kt. Seas will also increase, building to as high as 8 to 10 feet over the coastal waters and 5 to 6 feet in the Chesapeake Bay by Sunday night. By Monday morning, winds will gradually diminish, however, SCA will likely be needed for much of Monday due to seas remaining at 5+ feet and gusts could remain as high as 25 kt. Calmer conditions are then anticipated Monday night into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for ANZ635>638. && $$ |
| #1254340 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of dense fog, both inland and marine, expected tonight into Saturday morning. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect. - Fairly strong cold front, and associated scattered showers/storms in advance, will pass through Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Near to below freezing temperatures expected north of I-10 Sunday night into Monday morning. - Warming trend going into the middle of next week with temperatures back into the 70s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning. Woah...even the first sentence has been obscured by the fog! Speaking of that, visibilities began to decrease as early as 8pm with Angleton reporting in quarter-mile visibility just before 8:30pm. On top of the elevated low level moisture and light winds overnight, there were a few scattered showers earlier this afternoon south of I-10. This typically results in even more favorable environment for dense fog. The fog is expected to be at its most dense in the few hours leading up to sunrise and an hour or so afterwards (generally 4am- 8am). If you have plans to hit the roadway on Saturday morning, be sure to take extra precautions to travel safely. Moisture continues to increase as onshore flow persists along with convergence along an approaching cold front leading to continuous chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shower/storm chances will be at their highest as the cold front pushes through Southeast Texas. Additionally, another round of dense fog is likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning until the front pushes through. The general timeframe for FROPA looks to be entering the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods around midnight (early Sunday morning) and near the coast or offshore by sunrise. Once the front pushes offshore, our attention shifts from the fog and the rain to cold temperatures. Saturday`s high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s and that`ll follow a typical diurnal pattern. Sunday, on the other hand, will be where the high temperature occurs before sunrise for most locations due to the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will hover around the mid 50s to low 60s throughout the day on Sunday along with breezy northeasterly winds...so your weather app showing a high temperature in the mid to upper 60s will be a bit misleading. Our attention then turns to Sunday night into Monday morning where near to below freezing temperatures are anticipated across most of Southeast Texas. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. Houston County (not the city) could flirt with a brief hard freeze. For what it`s worth, deterministic model guidance came in a little bit colder and brings below freezing temperatures down to northern portions of Harris County. The big question is will we see freezing temperatures in the Houston metro area. The answer is...maybe! The latest NBM probabilities reflect a 30-45% probability for below freezing temperatures in the City of Houston. Either way, it`s going to be cold, so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep yourselves and your loved ones safe. Remember to protect the four P`s: People, Pets, Plants, Pipes (Pipes: mainly for those in the Piney Woods). Freeze Warnings (for counties that haven`t had their seasonal Freeze Warning yet) are likely, and we`ll at least be near Cold Weather Advisory territory with wind chill values ranging from the low to upper 20s across the area. High temperatures on Monday will only top out in the low to mid 50s. Monday will be mostly sunny, but cloud cover is expected to gradually increase from west to east late in the day as PVA increases along with increasing low level moisture. Onshore flow fully returns by Tuesday, which takes us on a warming trend through the end of the work week. High temperatures look to reach back into the 70s by Wednesday and we could be flirting with highs in the 80s on Thursday. From one extreme to the other in just a few days...that`s the Southeast Texas way! Rain chances return around midweek as well as a shortwave trough pushes through the area. This may also result in another FROPA towards the end of the work week, but it`s way too early to lock it in. Very Early Christmas Outlook ---------------------------- Christmas is less than two weeks away and I`m sure some of you have already seen what the long range model guidance trend has been indicating for weather in Southeast Texas. Santa...you`ll want to listen in on this too! The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day temperature outlook was updated today (or yesterday depending on when you`re reading this) which is valid for December 20-26. It shows a LOT of red across the CONUS and would you believe it that the reddest of the reds is right over Southeast Texas?! That means that there`s a greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures for this period...which just so happens to include Christmas Eve/Day. Normal temperatures for this time of year is high temperatures in the low 60s and low temperatures in the low 40s...so there`s a 90+% probability that our temperatures will be above that. Naturally your next question will be, well just how warm will it be? My answer is...I don`t know! It`s way too early to know exactly what the temperatures will be, but this time next week we`ll at least have a general idea. The most prominent colors are red and green. We have the red for very likely above normal temperatures, but do we have the green to go along with it on the precipitation outlook? Survey says....nope. How does a nice tan sound? Maybe if you look at it long enough it can kind of pass as gold...but yes Southeast Texas has slightly higher probabilities of seeing below normal precipitation for the week of Christmas. This probability is only ~37%, so there`s still ~30% probabilities of seeing near normal to above normal precipitation. Long story short, this one`s quite a bit more uncertain than the temperature outlook. I had been wishing for a repeat of the Christmas miracle of 2004, but sadly the chances of a white Christmas in Southeast TX are slim to none. I mean we could still have fog, but it`s not the same :( TL;DR: Christmas is very likely to feature above normal temperatures. Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Fog, dense in spots, in process of cropping up across the area and now in the time of keeping TAFs in line with obs in the degradation in flight conditions. Poor VSBY should persist past sunrise, with a slow, gradual rise back to just barely VFR is still expected late this afternoon. Non-zero chance for -SHRA this afternoon, but still not enough confidence for an explicit TAF mention yet. For now, that remains in the IAH extended when the cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The initial marine concern will be reduced visibility due to sea fog and inland fog spilling into the upper bays. Model guidance indicated the potential for widespread dense fog overnight into Saturday morning followed by another round Saturday night into early Sunday morning until a cold front pushes through. Outside of the fog, light southeasterly winds, 1-3 ft seas, and chances for scattered showers are expected through Saturday night. The cold front looks to be near or off the coast by sunrise on Sunday morning with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas in its wake through Monday morning. Gale force gusts will be possible over the Gulf waters throughout the day on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed Sunday morning through Monday morning, and we`ll continue to monitor model trends for any abnormally low water potential in the bays. Winds and seas gradually subside throughout the day on Monday with onshore flow returning Monday night. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 75 51 57 / 10 20 30 0 Houston (IAH) 63 76 56 63 / 10 30 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 63 73 58 65 / 10 20 60 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335. && $$ |
| #1254339 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1243 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Low Wind Chills Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Cold Weather Advisory Conditions [Wind Chills: 15-25F]: Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Hard Freeze Potential for Inland Southeast GA Early Next Week. Hard Freeze Potential Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Gale Warnings Possible on Sunday Night & Monday Morning && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The area will remain mainly under the influence of the western periphery of an Atlantic ridge throughout the day today and into the first part of tonight, keeping the benign and dry pattern persistent through most of the near term period. More mid and high clouds will start to stream across the area today as southwesterly flow aloft off the Gulf increases, especially over northeast Florida. But otherwise a dry and mild day is expected featuring light southwesterly winds only around 5 mph, and high temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A slightly milder night will be in store tonight as well thanks to more cloud cover and southwesterly flow, though still in the 40s across much of southeast GA and the Upper Suwannee Valey wilth low to mid 50s elsewhere. Early Morning fog chances Sunday Morning will be a little bit higher with an uptick in surface moisture throughout today and into tonight. Primary focus area would be over inland northeast FL, though some patchy fog is likely over interior southeast GA as well given a frontal boundary starting to approach Sunday Morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Troughing aloft digging southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday morning will pivot eastward across New England on Sunday night. This potent trough will drive an Arctic cold front across southeast GA on Sunday morning and the rest of our area during the early to mid afternoon hours. A narrow ribbon of moisture will pool just ahead of the approaching Arctic cold front late on Saturday night across the Deep South, where PWATs will climb to around 1.25 inches after midnight on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Strong forcing just ahead of the Arctic cold front and these slightly higher moisture levels will likely allow for a few showers to develop over the Altamaha / Ocmulgee River basins early on Sunday morning, with a few showers possible across the rest of inland southeast GA through around noon. Although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out elsewhere during the frontal passage, dry weather is likely to prevail on Sunday across northeast and north central FL. The frontal passage will likely be accompanied by a band of mid-level cloudiness that will progress southward during the afternoon hours. A cooler and drier air mass will begin to advect into our region on Sunday afternoon, with dewpoints falling below freezing for locations from Waycross northward in southeast GA during the late afternoon hours. Breezy northwesterly winds will overspread our region on Sunday afternoon, and cold air advection will counter increasing sunshine across southeast GA, keeping early afternoon highs in the 60s, with temperatures falling through the 50s during the mid to late afternoon. Highs will climb into the 70s early in the afternoon across northeast and north central FL, with temperatures then falling back through the 60s during the late afternoon. The base of deep troughing over the eastern third of the nation will pivot across our region on Sunday night, with dry northwesterly flow then prevailing locally through Monday night. An Arctic dome of high pressure (around 1045 millibars) will build over the northern Plains on Saturday night, with this surface ridge only slowly weakening as it slides southeastward on Sunday and Sunday night, reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early Monday morning. Our local pressure gradient will continue to tighten as this surface ridge wedges down the southeastern seaboard, likely creating Gale Conditions over our local Atlantic waters by the early evening hours. Low level flow will quickly veer to northerly towards sunset and then northeasterly by sunrise on Monday. Strong cold air advection will drive an extremely dry air mass into southeast GA and inland portions of northeast and north central FL, with dewpoints falling into the single digits across inland southeast GA after midnight, with teens extending into the Suwannee Valley and coastal southeast GA and 20s for inland northeast and north central FL. A hard advective freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 20s, with a light northeasterly breeze dropping wind chill values to mid teens. A light advective freeze will extend to coastal portions of southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and inland northeast FL, and possibly for portions of coastal northeast FL, where breezy northeasterly winds will drive wind chills down to the upper teens and lower 20s. Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Watches will likely be issued later today in advance of this Arctic plunge for these locations. Breezy onshore winds will likely keep lows in the 30s to around 40 for inland north central FL and the lower 40s for coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties, where gusty northeasterly winds will drive wind chill values down to the low and mid 30s by sunrise on Monday. Arctic high pressure will continue to steadily weaken as it builds over the southeastern states on Monday, allowing the local pressure gradient to loosen over southeast GA during the afternoon hours. Despite plenty of sunshine, the Arctic air mass will keep highs in the 40s for locations north of Interstate 10. A tighter local pressure gradient will continue for locations south of I-10, keeping breezy northeasterly winds in place, where highs will generally remain in the low to mid 50s, except upper 50s to around 60 for inland north central FL. Coastal troughing will begin to take shape over our near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL on Monday afternoon, likely driving a deck of marine stratocumulus onshore along the I-95 corridor on Monday evening. Lows on Monday night will likely remain above freezing for locations east of I-95, with low to mid 40s forecast along the northeast FL coast, where a light northerly breeze will prevail overnight. Fair skies and decoupling winds elsewhere will allow for radiational cooling, with another hard freeze likely across inland southeast GA, with a light freeze expected for the Suwannee Valley. Light winds will allow for widespread frost formation, with frosty conditions likely extending into inland portions of north central FL, where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing aloft will exit the U.S. eastern seaboard on Tuesday, with dry northwesterly flow prevailing locally through Tuesday night. Our local pressure gradient will continue to loosen on Tuesday as coastal troughing persists over our local Atlantic waters. Cold air advection will shut off as high pressure weakens along the southeastern seaboard, allowing highs to rebound to the upper 50s across southeast GA to the 60s across northeast and north central FL. One more night of radiational cooling is expected on Tuesday night, but model blends keep lows above freezing across our area. Widespread frost formation is still likely for inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 30s. Lows elsewhere will likely remain in the upper 30s and 40s inland, ranging to around 50 along the northeast FL coast, where marine stratocumulus may continue to move onshore along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will continue to modify on Wednesday as zonal flow aloft develops and surface ridging shifts offshore of the southeastern seaboard. Onshore low level flow on Wednesday will continue to advect marine stratocumulus onshore from the Atlantic waters across our region, but rising heights aloft will allow highs to climb into the 70s for inland locations south of I-10, while mid to upper 60s prevail elsewhere. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights will only fall to the mid and upper 40s for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with 50s elsewhere. Southwesterly flow aloft will develop on Thursday and Friday downstream of a trough that will be pivoting across the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low and mid level flow will continue to veer, with southerly winds on Thursday morning shifting to south- southwesterly during the afternoon, boosting highs into the 70s, except upper 60s for coastal southeast GA due to the afternoon sea breeze. This front and gradually increasing moisture levels could bring a few showers to inland portions of southeast GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley by Thursday afternoon and night. Support aloft for the front will wane by Friday, with this boundary potentially stalling across the Interstate 10 corridor. A slightly cooler air mass may filter into southeast GA as winds shift to northwesterly during the morning hours and then quickly veer to northeasterly by the afternoon. Highs will likely remain in the 70s across inland portions of northeast and north central FL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR is expected to prevail for the majority of the rest of the morning hours. Have opted to keep TEMPO groups for possible shallow FG/BR over inland airfields, though general trend has been downward with this potential from hi-res model guidance. Any FG/BR will dissipate by late morning, with VFR and light winds expected to prevail throughout the afternoon and evening. BR/FG appears more likely Sunday Morning ahead of an approaching front, though any impacts to area terminals are expected to be after the current forecast period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge hold over area waters through this evening before breaking down tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will cross through the area on Sunday, bringing only very isolated shower chances Sunday. Northwesterly winds will strengthen in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday and Sunday Night afternoon: Small Craft Advisories are very likely, with Gale Warnings also possible Sunday Night as winds shift to northerly and then northeasterly due to strong high pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard. High pressure will then gradually weaken over the southeastern states early next week as coastal troughing develops over our local waters. Small Craft Advisories and/or Gale Warnings will likely continue through Monday morning, with onshore winds and seas then gradually subsiding from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Coastal troughing may generate a few showers early next week, mainly for the offshore waters. High pressure will then shift eastward and off the southeastern seaboard by midweek. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Low Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... ...LOW DISPERSION VALUES TODAY AT ALL COASTAL AND SOME INLAND LOCATIONS... ...PATCHES OF HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95... Light and variable surface winds this morning for locations south of Waycross will shift to southwesterly this afternoon, with transport speeds increasing to 5-10 mph. Westerly transport winds of 5-10 mph this morning for locations north of Waycross will shift to southwesterly this afternoon, where fair daytime dispersion values are forecast. Light speeds elsewhere will yield poor dispersion values, with pockets of marginally low values at coastal locations and also for the Suwannee Valley and Okefenokee Swamp. Surface and transport winds will shift to west-northwesterly by sunrise on Sunday, with breezy conditions developing across inland southeast Georgia during the morning hours, where a few showers will be possible. Winds will then shift to northwesterly during the afternoon hours, with steadily increasing speeds area-wide creating good daytime dispersion values, with marginally high values possible in the Ocala National Forest as well as inland southeast Georgia. Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after midnight on Sunday night, with strong speeds persisting along the Interstate 95 corridor, where elevated nighttime dispersion values are forecast. A cold and very dry air mass will then settle over our region on Monday, with critically low humidity values expected on Monday afternoon across most of inland southeast Georgia. Breezy northeasterly surface and transport winds on Monday morning will shift to east-northeasterly with diminishing speeds across inland southeast Georgia and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, precluding Red Flag Conditions. Breezy speeds will continue elsewhere, resulting in fair daytime dispersion values, except for good values at coastal locations and for north central Florida. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible early this morning for portions of the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia. Areas of locally dense fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours on on Sunday across much of our area. Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Watches will likely be issued later today in advance of a significant cold spell that will arrive on Sunday night, with wind chill values falling to the 15-25 degree range by sunrise on Monday for southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast Florida. A hard freeze is likely during the early morning hours on Tuesday for inland southeast Georgia, with a light freeze likely for the Suwannee Valley and portions of coastal southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 48 63 23 / 0 10 20 0 SSI 68 52 68 31 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 74 49 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 73 54 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 76 51 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 53 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1254337 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1246 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure briefly builds in tonight. A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday, with strong and cold high pressure building back in Monday. High pressure shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 2 PM Fri... Key Messages... - Flurries continue this afternoon across ENC, but with temps in the 40s, no impacts expected - Clearing skies this evening will allow for good radiational cooling tonight with lows in the 20s inland An overperforming clipper system has kept the area cloudy all day, and there continues to be reports of flurries or light snow across ENC. With surface temps in the 40s, no impacts are expected. Skies will clear from south to north this evening, and with winds remaining light, good radiational cooling conditions will develop and temps should plummet quickly through the 30s inland to the mid to upper 20s by morning. Some wind will remain overnight along the coast, keeping lows mostly above freezing in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 2 PM Fri...Heights will rise tomorrow ahead of a strong cold front, as SW flow develops. This will bring much warmer conditions (briefly) with highs expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the area under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 PM Friday... Key Messages... - Strong cold front to move through Sunday with breezy conditions and a round of light rain which may mix with or change to snow briefly before ending - Dangerous cold expected with wind chills in the single digits Sunday night/Monday morning Sunday and Monday night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend with a robust upper trough digging across the East Coast and an attendant cold front pushing across the area Sunday. Moisture is somewhat limited but favorable jet dynamics and strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to bring some precip across the area. There remains some timing difference with the front as well as precip coverage among the guidance but the trend over the past 24 hours has now gone in the opposite direction, now with decreasing PoPs and coverage across ENC. Any precip will begin as rain but the column cools quickly behind the front and could see a change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow, briefly, before ending late afternoon and evening. Temps a bit tricky on Sunday and will be dictated by the timing of the cold front and there remains a large spread among guidance. Currently have highs Sunday in mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s coast but that may be optimistic if the front passes through earlier in the morning. Temps will fall through the afternoon as CAA ramps up behind the front with gusty NW winds. CAA continues Sunday night with temps expected to drop into the teens inland to 20s along the coast. Wind chills are expected to drop to the single digits to teens across the area after midnight into mid-morning Monday. Confidence is increasing that cold weather headlines will be needed for much of the area, including the coast. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Monday bringing the coldest airmass of the season and highs are expected to remain in the 30s most areas despite mainly sunny skies. Monday will be another frigid night with temps falling into the upper teens to lower 20 away from the coast. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with SW flow returning bringing a warming trend through mid week. Precip chances increase Thursday and Thursday night with a cold front potentially approaching the area. Highs expected in the 40s Tuesday, 50s on Wednesday, and 60s on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 AM Sat... Key Messages - VFR conditions expected through the TAF period VFR conditions are ongoing across all of ENC as of this update as high and mid clouds have moved out of the area. Currently under clear skies and calm winds across ENC as high pressure has moved overhead the Mid-Atlantic. Some patchy shallow ground fog is possible across the more susceptible terminals though this morning but no operational impacts are expected from this ground fog. As we get into the day on Sat VFR conditions will persist through the day and into tonight as high pressure gradually pushes offshore. This will allow calm winds to become SW`rly at about 5kts or so by mid morning Sat. As we get into the evening hours, a cold front begins approaching from the north and west which will allow for high and mid clouds to begin to build in from the west. Regardless ceilings will likely remain above 20 kft into 06Z Sun. Outlook: Increased chances for sub-VFR conditions developing after 06Z Sun into Sun afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Cold front should also bring a chance at some light precip which could also result in a brief period of lowered visibility as well. Gusty NW winds expected Sunday behind the front with winds remaining elevated into Mon. VFR conditions return on Monday and persist through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 2 PM Fri... Key Messages - Gale Watches issued for most of the coastal waters and sounds for Sunday night through Monday for winds NNW 30-35 kt with gusts 40-45 kts Good boating conditions will persist in the short term through tomorrow with winds veering from the north this afternoon to east tonight and finally southwest tomorrow at 5-10 kts. SW winds increase tomorrow afternoon to 10-15 kts, and then to 15-25 kts overnight through Sunday morning ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will be strongest over the warm Gulf Stream waters where winds could briefly gust to 30 kts ahead of the front Sunday. Behind the front winds will switch the NW and strengthen to 25-35 kts Sunday night with gusts to 40-45 kts. Seas will be 2-3 ft through tomorrow night, and then will increase to 4-6 ft by Sunday afternoon. Seas increase quickly behind the cold front to 6-10 ft by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Outlook: Winds and seas will decrease through the day Monday, falling below Small craft criteria by Monday evening. Winds become W Tuesday at 10-20 kts, and then back slightly to the SW Wednesday at 10-20 kts still. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through midweek. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ135. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for AMZ150-152-154. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1254338 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1139 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Dense Fog likely across the area early Saturday morning, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9AM. - The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area Sunday night into Monday morning. - Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected Sunday into Monday after a strong cold front moves through. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The immediate concern of the short term period is the potential for dense fog across the area tonight. With more than one model showing decent probabilities overnight and the moisture and light winds making for a good environment, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire area through 9AM Saturday. Weak high pressure at the surface will start to break down heading into the weekend as our next system approaches. In the upper levels a quick shortwave moves across the region, while a deep trough moves across the Midwest. Back at the surface a strong cold front associated with the Midwestern trough will creep down towards our area, likely making it through the coast by Sunday afternoon. We will already start to see the effects of this cold front in the Sunday high temperatures. The MaxT`s for Sunday will actually more than likely happen in the morning rather than the afternoon because the front will already be pushing through most areas during the "normal" daytime high time. By afternoon we start to see temperatures rapidly decrease across the area, into the 30s by late evening. In terms of precipitation, the best chance for rain is looking to be late Saturday night into early Sunday with most areas seeing a 50-60% chance of rain, but far northern areas see closer to a 70-80% chance. Looking at QPF this should be a pretty light rain with most areas seeing less than a half inch of rain. The main threat of the short term comes Sunday night into early Monday with the cold air rushing in. MinTs are sitting in the low to mid 20s for everywhere north of the lake and the low 30s south of the lake. On top of the air temperature being cold, we will also have breezy winds gusting 15-20mph overnight which brings Wind Chills into the teens for northern areas and the low to mid 20s for southern areas. Made some adjustments to the drainage areas as those tend to cool more. That being said, everything right now would be well into Cold Weather Advisory criteria and some areas along the northshore and Coastal MS would be hovering around Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Knowing this, expect cold weather headlines Monday morning but exactly which ones is still uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Following the cold snap early Monday morning, we warm up into the upper 40s to lower 50s for afternoon highs. After the cold front passes, we see riding start to build to our west and move its way westward. Throughout early week this ridge will move closer to the central Gulf Coast region. This helps us warm right back up after out cold spell, with Tuesday Max T`s already back into the 60s for most areas and Wednesday will already be near the 70 degree mark for most. After the rain associated with the big cold front, we don`t see any notable rain chances again through the rest of the long term period. Very minor chances on Thursday, but only ~15-20%. Winds turn back onshore by Tuesday which will push some moisture back into the area and that may aid in some fog development some mornings next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Seeing a wide variety of conditions across the area this evening, from LIFR to VFR. Bouncing vis and ceilings are being observed mainly at MCB, BTR, and HDC. Dense fog will continue to be a concern at most terminals overnight until just after sunrise Saturday morning. After sunrise the fog should burn off and all terminals return to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1012 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 night Light onshore winds of 10 knots or less and calm seas of 2 feet or less will persist over the waters through Saturday as a broad area of high pressure remains centered over the region. A rapid change in conditions will then take place Saturday night and Sunday morning as a very strong cold front moves through. Winds will turn northerly and increase in speed to between 25 and 30 knots with higher gusts from mid day Sunday through Monday morning. There is a decent probability that headlines will be issued for the waters over this time period due to high winds and rough seas anticipated. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 53 70 45 52 / 10 30 80 10 BTR 56 74 49 57 / 10 30 60 20 ASD 53 73 50 60 / 10 20 40 10 MSY 58 75 54 62 / 10 20 30 20 GPT 56 71 51 62 / 10 20 40 20 PQL 52 72 49 60 / 10 20 40 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254336 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1109 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 * Fog, mist, low stratus possible again tonight. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week. * Our next best chance for rain will be on Sunday in response to a cold front; medium (40-60%) chances on Sunday. * Another chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are expected to develop on Sunday and persist through Monday in response to the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will continue to consist of warmer than normal temps with a couple chances for rain, though there will be many rain-free hours. Tonight will be similar to last night as far as the potential for fog, mist, and/or low stratus development. However, the thickness and coverage of any fog is not expected to be as great as last night due to slightly wider dewpoint depressions and the potential for some clouds to develop later tonight. The HREF model is indicating a general low-medium (30-60%) chance/risk for fog/mist developing across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Otherwise, expect for a quiet night under mostly clear skies and milder than normal temperatures. As highlighted earlier, much of the forecast period will be dry/rain- free. However, Sunday will feature our next best and widespread chance for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to develop. Forecast models/ensembles continue to advertise a strong southward advancing cold front approaching the region on Sunday. This cold front is associated with an Arctic 1040-1045 mb sfc high pressure system that will be established over the Midwest U.S. As this happens, the combination of increased sfc convergence and a nearby weak shortwave trough will increase the prospects for showers (maybe an isolated thunder or two) to develop over the region on Sunday. We`ve maintained medium (40-60%) chances for showers across Deep South Texas on Sunday. Rain chances diminish from north to south as the cold front sweeps through the region and shifts into northeastern Mexico Sunday evening/night. Tuesday night into Wednesday is another period that we have to monitor for the potential for showers and thunderstorms. During this time period, a return flow out of the south on the backside of a broad sfc high pressure system centered over the Southeastern U.S. will result in increased moisture and warm air advection (WAA). Increased atmospheric moisture content interacting with a nearby shortwave trough or weak frontal boundary will result in increased prospects for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Currently, we only have low grade (20-30%) PoPs along and east of IH-69E. Again, we will continue to monitor these trends in the days ahead. Through the middle parts of next week, an up, down, up (roller- coaster) temperature pattern will take place. However, late next week into next weekend, the cold and wintry weather across the northern U.S. begins to retreat northward into Canada as flat ridging (low amplitude 500 mb pattern) envelopes a vast majority of the Lower 48, marking a major large scale weather pattern change towards the milder, less wintry side. For us here in Deep South Texas, this means a stabilized, warmer than normal pattern will solidly be in place with less risk of cool frontal passages and less fluctuations in temperatures. Overall, temps will average out warmer than normal for the balance of the forecast period with daytime highs in the 80s most locations each day except for Sunday through Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday, high temperatures will top out in the 70s most places (lower 80s along parts of the RGV). Monday is progged to be the coolest day of the forecast period with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s. Finally, on Tuesday, temperatures will begin to moderate as daytime highs are expected to climb back into the 70s most places. Wednesday through at least next Saturday, above normal temperatures will be driven by a 585-588 mb ridge. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s during the forecast period. Sunday night into Monday will be the coolest with overnight lows in the 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and 50s along the RGV. Monday night into Tuesday, overnight lows will be in the 50s most places. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Through 06z Sunday....VFR conditions will by and large be in place through the 06z TAF cycle. However tonight, the main concern will be for the potential for fog, mist, and/or low stratus to develop again tonight. The latest GOES East Nighttime Fog, Microphysics and Infrared satellite images revealed low stratus develop over parts of the region. The latest obs had dewpoint depressions ranging between 1-4F degrees (slightly wider than last night). Given the situation, it appears that any fog or mist will not be as thick or spatially widespread as last night. Any fog, mist, or low stratus that develops will have the capabilities of producing MVFR- LIFR cigs/vsbys. Any fog, mist, low stratus will burn off Saturday morning giving way to VFR conditions. Light and variable winds will persist through tonight. During the day on Saturday, southeast winds will return with speeds between 5- 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas will persist through Saturday night. On Sunday, marine conditions deteriorate with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions developing in response the aforementioned cold front. These conditions will persist through Monday/Monday evening before showing some improvements and a return to low to moderate seas and winds. There will be near day- to-day chances for showers and storms over the Gulf Waters tonight through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 68 83 68 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 84 64 84 63 / 0 10 10 10 MCALLEN 86 68 85 67 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 76 69 / 0 30 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 66 81 65 / 0 20 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1254335 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 13.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1057 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - More fog, both inland and marine, expected tonight. Dense fog advisories are a possibility. - Fairly strong cold front, and associated scattered showers in advance, will pass through Saturday night. Freezing overnight temps still looking probable over the northeast half of the region Sunday night. - Moderating conditions next week with readings back into the 70s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Warm and humid airmass will linger across the region tonight, Saturday, and into late Saturday evening. Light winds and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to more fog development tonight...some of which will probably be dense again. Chances for some scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated tstm or two, should be on a gradual increase through the day as moisture pools ahead of the next front that`ll be pushing through the region late Saturday night. Precip will taper off in the wake of the front...followed by some considerably colder and breezy conditions Sunday. Anticipate we`ll see high temps in the morning for most locations followed by steady or falling readings into the 50s during the day. Freezing overnight lows are expected east of a Burleson-Waller-High Island line. Will likely need to issue Freeze Warnings for the counties that haven`t achieved their first freeze of the season. It`s not out question that parts of Houston County (not city) flirt with a brief hard freeze (~40% chance). Cool dry wx will persist early next week, eventually moderating as high pressure exits to the east and we see SE winds resume. Before you know it we`ll be right back to lows closer to 60F and highs well into the 70s by midweek. As far as rain chances go, they appear somewhat low other than iso-sct WAA type shra in the midweek timeframe. May, or may not, see the next front next Friday...but the pattern/details are still somewhat fuzzy between models at this time. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Fog, dense in spots, in process of cropping up across the area and now in the time of keeping TAFs in line with obs in the degradation in flight conditions. Poor VSBY should persist past sunrise, with a slow, gradual rise back to just barely VFR is still expected late this afternoon. Non-zero chance for -SHRA this afternoon, but still not enough confidence for an explicit TAF mention yet. For now, that remains in the IAH extended when the cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Another couple rounds of fog are expected tonight into mid-late morning Saturday, then again Saturday night into early Sunday morning as warmer air overspreads the cooler waters. Fog may become dense at times. Light onshore winds and low seas will generally prevail until the next cold front and associated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms pass through the bays prior to sunrise Sunday. This will bring an end to the fog threat, but gusty north and northeast winds and building seas will fill in behind the front. Gusts close to gale are possible in the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories will be required at a minimum Sun-Sun night. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 61 76 49 58 / 20 20 40 10 Houston (IAH) 63 76 56 63 / 20 30 60 20 Galveston (GLS) 65 74 60 64 / 30 20 50 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335. && $$ |
