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| #1250135 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 859 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk Today Northeast Florida Beaches - Small Craft Advisory through Thursday - Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin. Elevated tides through early November minor tidal flood risk - Patchy Inland Frost Potential Saturday Morning && .UPDATE... Issued at 851 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Airmass change is on the way today and through tonight. There isn`t any needed changes to the forecast, so left as is. A frontal system will continue to lift a warm front through the region this morning and afternoon, breaking up the stratus as it does so. This warming southerly flow and sunnier sky will raise temps to the mid/upper 70s across NE FL while lingering stratus keeps SE GA in the lower 70s for this afternoon`s high. Tonight, a cool and dry airmass will overspread the area, bringing clear skies and cooling temperatures. HiRes guidance insists on a few late evening showers accompanying the frontal passage but thunderstorms are not expected. By daybreak lows in the mid/upper 40s will be common in SE GA and portions of inland NE FL. While other coastal locations and the southern zones, fall to the low 50s. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Almost the entirety of the area remains socked into low clouds with areas of drizzle and fog early this morning, though things are expected to change throughout the day today as a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon. Low clouds are expected to linger through about mid to late morning before wind direction shifts more southeast to southerly by this afternoon and helps to mix us out. Rather weak convection ahead of the frontal boundary looks to start impacting western areas by about the late afternoon time frame in the form of a somewhat broken line of showers. Fortunately for us, the northeasterly drainage like flow that`s been in place over the past 24+ hours has left a lack of low level moisture to maintain higher chances for rain with the line. This goes hand in hand with expected instability as well, especially with low clouds taking their time this morning to mix out. Therefore, despite modestly strong fall frontal passage, chances for rain and especially thunderstorms are expected to be on the lower side, with the best chances for rainfall being generally over western areas and especially inland southeast GA closer to more favorable upper level support that will be lifting northeast of the area through tonight. High temps are a bit tricky today, with the two main factors being how quickly low clouds scatter out this morning/afternoon, as well as how short lived we will be in the warm sector ahead of the front and how much of a boost in temps that will give us. All in all, expecting to average out to widespread 70s across the area, with some potential for some low 80s over far southern areas where expect low clouds to move out the quickest. The front clears the area from northwest to southeast this evening through early Thursday Morning, ushering in a cool and dry west to northwesterly flow area-wide with cloud cover also mostly clearing out rather quickly. Temperatures and dew points crash throughout the night, featuring lows mostly in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s near the coast and St. Johns River. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Cool and dry with gusty post-frontal westerly winds Thursday between high pressure building eastward across the Gulf Coast states and an approaching reinforcing dry front sliding southward down the SE region. The high builds NNW of the region through Friday with a ridge axis extending across the local area bringing lighter winds as the aforementioned dry front slides offshore of the Atlantic coast. Clear skies prevail Friday into Friday night, with a low to medium chance for some patchy inland frost mainly across southeast GA and areas north and west of the JAX metro area including locations near and north of the I-10 corridor in cooler pockets under good radiational cooling conditions. The latest 01z NBM CONUS run advertised the higher probabilities of (30-40%) of temperatures 36degF or below between Waycross, Hilliard and Glen St. Marys. This would be the first frost of this season. Temperatures will trend below normal this period with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to a few mid/upper 30s well inland Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Dry weather prevails this weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures as the surface high north of the area shifts offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday into Sunday. Low level winds shift to onshore/easterly Sunday as a coastal trough begins to form over the local Atlantic waters, with the low level pressure gradient increasing late Sunday into Monday as this coastal trough morphs into a lifting warm front ahead of the next approaching frontal system. With breezy onshore flow by Monday, a chance of coastal showers returns to the forecast with elevated rip current risk and tidal flooding impacts. Monday into Tuesday, the next frontal system approaches from the west, but there remains a great deal of forecast model discrepancies with the evolution, timing and track of synoptic features, including the track of a frontal surface low. The official NWS NBM extended model guidance is weighed more toward the ECMWF solution which shows a surface low across the southern Gulf with breezy onshore flow across the local area in the cool sector of this system and a drier forecast with just passing showers. However, ensemble runs of the GEFS, GEPS and ENS show a wetter solution with the operational GFS having a potential squall line scenario Mon/Tue with a strong cold front passage and cool down Tue into Wed. Given high uncertainty, there is very low confidence in the Mon-Wed time frame with regards to severe storm risk. What does look likely is a continuation of tidal flooding impacts with the approach of the full moon Nov. 5th. High temperatures will moderate this period back toward seasonal averages with highs in the 70s with lows near to below normal ranging from the 40s/50s inland to 60s coast. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A warm front continues its motion northward through the region this morning ahead of an incoming cold that will push in from the west tonight. Improving flight conditions are expected through the rest of the morning hours as winds veer southerly with the passing warm front. VFR conditions are expected by the afternoon and are expected through Thursday as much drier air scours out moisture. There will be a wind shift to the west this evening between 01-03z with the cold fropa, which could bring an hour or so of gusts up to 20 knots with the passage itself. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers with the front either but this will be brief, if at all. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Low clouds and areas of mist/drizzle over area waters will subside later this morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds will shift more southeast to southerly ahead of the front before it moves through tonight as Hurricane Melissa moves well to the east of the region. High pressure builds in from the northwest behind the front, with breezy conditions expected through Thursday. Conditions subside Friday and into Saturday as high pressure moves almost directly over the area. Another frontal system is expected to approach the area Sunday, likely bringing unsettled conditions once again through at least Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Coastal flood advisory continues for the St. Johns River basin from downtown JAX southward to Satsuma where peak inundation up to 1.5 ft MHHW is expected around high tides. Expect this trend will continue for at least the next couple of days, but likely through much of next week as astronomical tides further increase with the approach of the Nov. 5th full moon. Will continue to monitor observations to see if the advisory needs to be extended to include the ICW of St. Johns and Flagler counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 45 66 41 / 30 40 0 0 SSI 73 49 68 47 / 0 30 0 0 JAX 76 50 71 45 / 0 20 0 0 SGJ 77 53 71 49 / 0 20 0 0 GNV 78 49 71 43 / 0 20 0 0 OCF 77 52 71 45 / 0 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ132-137- 325-633. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1250134 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 823 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and continues into the weekend. - A period of hazardous marine conditions is forecast for tonight into late Thursday night with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Many are waking up to cloudy skies this morning. A pocket of moisture from about 900mb to 850mb is present with some weak instability, allowing for these clouds to linger. In areas where the cloud cover is more patchy, it should mix out more through the day. However, the northern Nature Coast is probably looking at mostly cloudy skies through the day (and likely into tomorrow too). The forecast sky coverage has been adjusted to reflect current trends, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. A strong cold front is expected to move through the region tonight, with just a thin, broken line of showers. However, winds will then increase overnight and temperatures will start to cool. Fall weather is upon us. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 821 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 With CIGs now VFR, there are no significant aviation concerns through the day. A cold front will approach tonight, with a brief window where a shower is possible at area terminals this evening and overnight. Additional clouds then filter in behind the front and winds will increase. The current thinking is that conditions will remain VFR outside of the brief window where showers are passing. However, it is possible that lower MVFR or even IFR CIGs develop. It`s just too unlikely for mention at this time. There will be an additional opportunity for a quick shower for Tampa Bay terminals around midday tomorrow with cold air over warm waters favoring enough instability for showers to redevelop. Otherwise, quieter, but breezy weather will last into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Another morning with some areas of low clouds is expected today with mostly sunny skies returning by afternoon. A strong cold front however will be approaching from the northwest during the day so the rather light winds early in the day will shift to southwest to west and increase as the front approaches later today. A band of clouds and a few showers will accompany the boundary as it moves across the forecast area late this afternoon and tonight. Behind the front breezy northwesterly winds will usher in much cooler drier air, but this cool air moving over the relatively warm gulf waters could lead to a few light showers/sprinkles moving onshore during Thursday. Most locations will not see measurable rainfall, but a few spots near the coast could see a few hundredths. Winds then shift to northerly Thursday night and Friday and subside as high pressure moves into the southeast states with fair dry conditions and comfortable temperatures and humidity through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday morning are expected to dip into the 40s and 50s across the region which will be the coolest we`ve seen since mid-April, while daytime highs Thursday through Saturday will only be in the 70s. By Sunday the high will be moving out into the Atlantic Ocean with the global models coming more in line as far as the development of an area of low pressure over the north central gulf moving northeast across the southeast U.S. and dragging the next cold front across the region sometime Monday or Monday night. The exact timing varies some, but it does look like there should be enough moisture return to see a few showers on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front will move across the waters tonight with robust west to northwest winds setting up behind it leading to small craft advisory conditions tonight through Thursday night. Gradual improvement will take place on Friday and into the weekend before the next system approaches early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 No major fire weather concerns expected today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will sweep through the region tonight accompanied by a few showers. Gusty northwesterly winds will follow the boundary ushering in much cooler drier air later tonight and Thursday. Winds will subside by Friday with fair dry weather prevailing into the weekend. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through the week, but winds will increase to around 15 mph Thursday with some higher gusts yielding higher dispersions. However, red flag conditions do not look to be met at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 65 76 56 / 10 20 20 0 FMY 84 67 79 59 / 0 20 10 0 GIF 82 60 75 51 / 0 10 10 0 SRQ 80 66 76 58 / 0 20 20 0 BKV 79 55 72 46 / 10 20 10 0 SPG 78 66 73 60 / 10 20 20 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1250133 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 708 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 653 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Gale conditions expected over the open Gulf waters late tonight into Wednesday evening. - A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night. - The passage of a strong cold front brings the coldest air so far this season for the latter half of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Updated the public forecast to reflect a faster moving and exiting line of showers early morning. Winds will switch to a westerly to northwesterly direction at 10-20 mph this morning behind a cold front passing through the area, along with clearing skies. The remainder of the forecast for today remains in good shape. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Updated at 653 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 An upper trof over the Plains barrels into the eastern states through Wednesday, with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a strong cold front through the forecast area late tonight into Wednesday morning along with a line of precipitation. Instability continues to remain limited with the frontal passage and am anticipating the convection to remain mostly as showers. Have gone with likely/categorical pops shifting across the area with the frontal passage, with dry conditions developing Wednesday as the front exits to the east. Dry conditions continue over the area through Saturday as the eastern states upper trof moves well off to the north and another upper trof develops over the central states. This next system is anticipated to evolve into an upper low Sunday into Sunday night somewhere over the north central Gulf or central Gulf, and depending on how this plays out and where the associated surface low forms could determine if our area ends up with isolated showers on Sunday or much more coverage. Have for now continued with slight chance pops for Sunday and will continue to evaluate. Dry conditions are anticipated to follow for Monday and Tuesday. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near the coast, then the coldest air yet of the season follows for Thursday night when lows range from the upper 30s inland to near 50 at the immediate coast. Lows Friday night will be just a tad warmer, then lows gradually moderate through Monday night to range from the mid/upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the immediate coast. Highs on Thursday range from the lower 60s well inland to the mid 60s near the coast then moderate to the lower to mid 70s by Tuesday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night, then a moderate risk is in effect for Thursday. A low risk of rip currents follows for Thursday night through Sunday night. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Showers will accompany a cold front passing through the area early this morning, with winds switching to a westerly to northwesterly direction at 10-20 knots. MVFR ceilings prevail over the area until improving to VFR in the wake of the front. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong northwesterly flow develops Wednesday morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the marine area. The offshore flow gradually diminishes Thursday into Thursday night, with a light easterly flow later developing on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the open Gulf waters from 4 am tonight until 10 pm Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays and sounds beginning at 4 am tonight until 7 am Thursday, and will be in effect for the open Gulf waters after the Gale Warning until 1 pm Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 49 65 42 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 53 65 46 / 60 0 0 0 Destin 74 53 65 48 / 60 0 0 0 Evergreen 66 47 64 36 / 70 0 0 0 Waynesboro 60 47 61 38 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 61 47 60 38 / 60 10 10 0 Crestview 68 46 64 38 / 60 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1250131 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 733 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Another front pushing through tonight will reinforce cool and dry conditions. A few showers along the front can`t be ruled out. - Beach and marine conditions become poor to hazardous again as long period swell arrives at the beaches, and wind and seas over the Atlantic waters increase. - Friday evening temperatures forecast to drop into the 60s and 50s for Halloween. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Today-Tonight...Very dry air with PWATs less than 1" continues to filter in from the north as weak high pressure shifts over Florida from the Gulf. A deep and energetic trough diving down the Central US and into the Southeast will push a reinforcing cold front quickly across the area tonight. With virtually no moisture recovery ahead of the front the only moisture available for any rain chances are limited to a narrow band in the low-levels right along the frontal boundary. Therefore, dry conditions expected through the daytime hours, then a low (around 20%) chance of brief showers with the frontal passage overnight. The environment looks to be well capped, and chances for lightning are effectively zero. However, given how quickly the line will be moving through any showers than manage to form could be gusty. Light northerly winds this morning shift southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon, then northwesterly around 10 mph tonight behind the front. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal in the U70s-L80s. There is a High risk of life-threatening rip currents at the beaches due to the arrival of long period swell. Entering the surf is not advised. Thursday-Friday...Starting off cool Thursday morning behind the overnight frontal passage, with morning lows in the M50s-M60s, possibly in the L50s in the usually cooler northern spots. Could still be a few showers along the Treasure Coast in the morning but these will quickly push offshore. High pressure and even drier air then builds over the Southeast behind the front. Westerly winds increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Thursday afternoon behind the front, which might be able to bring some shallow showers whipped up over the Gulf into the interior portions of East Central Florida (rain chances currently less than 20%), but otherwise dry conditions. Winds become more gentle from the north to northwest Friday. Afternoon highs Thursday decrease to the L-M70s, with a chilly Friday morning expected as morning lows get down in the L50-U40s thanks to a slug of cooler air. Afternoon highs Friday only get up to the L70s (possibly some U60s), with evening temperatures forecast to drop into the 60s after 5 PM, and into the 50s after 8 PM, making for the most Halloween feeling Halloween we`ve seen in a few years. Saturday-Tuesday...While mid-upper level troughing is forecast to be maintained over the eastern US through the weekend and early next week, models have been inconsistent with the evolution of lobes of upper-level energy moving through the pattern. Pretty good agreement a mid-level low diving through the Central US will stall over the southern US, but whether it becomes cutoff or not has changed model to model and run to run. This morning`s 00Z GFS and ECM run both bring the feature to the North Gulf coast early next week, but the GFS aggressively kicks the system eastward Tuesday, while the ECM keeps it in our neighborhood an additional day. And this is technically better agreement than the 18Z runs, where the ECM orphaned the system in the western Gulf while the GFS tracked across the north Gulf states. This impacts the evolution of an associated surface low over the Southeast, and locally how much rain we may get. The sooner and closer to the Southeast seaboard the low develops the more likely we`ll have lower (if any) rain chances. However, there is potential for this system to lift moisture associated with the departed Tropical Cyclone Melissa into the area if it were to develop further west, later, and slower. Given at least some solutions call for rainfall but also the high degree of uncertainty, went with a 20% chance in the official forecast for Monday and Tuesday to mention the potential, and less than 20% the rest of the period. Temperatures recover a bit, but forecast to remain slightly below normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the local Atlantic waters today. A reinforcing cold front pushing through tonight followed by deeper high pressure Thursday will cause winds and seas to increase again. Winds and seas settle going towards the weekend as the high pressure center moves closer to Florida and the local waters, with better boating conditions expected by the weekend. Seas begin to build in the Gulf Stream again today as swell from low pressure system associated with the previous front arrives, reaching 5-7 ft north of the Cape late this morning, and south of the Cape later this evening. Winds generally light and squirrelly today ahead of the approaching front, becoming northwest 15-20 kts behind the front tonight and Thursday, shifting more westerly Thursday afternoon. Seas peak 5-8 ft Thursday afternoon. Winds settle to 5-15 kts through the rest of the week and weekend as the center of the high moves closer, gradually veering from northwesterly Friday to easterly Sunday. Seas subside to 4-7 ft Friday, and 2-4 ft Saturday and Sunday. A few showers are possible along the front tonight, otherwise generally dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Satellite shows an area of stratus that developed across northern portions of east central FL has expanded southward near to just west of the I-95 corridor through Brevard and into Osceola and northern Okeechobee counties. This stratus will produce tempo IFR cigs around 500-800ft for sites mainly near to north of KISM-KTIX through early this morning (~14Z) before breaking up and lifting into late morning. VFR conditions then forecast for the remainder of the day, with SCT/BKN clouds near or above 3500ft. It will remain dry through today, and then a thin band of showers will be possible late this evening and overnight along a strong cold front that will push through the area. Have included VCSH for most sites to cover this activity for now. N/NW winds around 5-7 knots will become SW 6-8 knots this afternoon ahead of the approaching front. May see the sea breeze form switching winds to the E/NE at the coast, especially from KMLB southward near to after 18Z. As front moves through tonight, winds will pick up out of the W/NW around 10-13 knots, with some higher gusts up to 18-20 knots possible at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 56 73 49 / 0 20 0 0 MCO 81 58 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 MLB 81 61 75 53 / 0 20 10 0 VRB 82 62 76 53 / 10 20 10 0 LEE 79 56 73 48 / 10 20 10 0 SFB 81 57 73 50 / 0 20 10 0 ORL 81 59 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 FPR 82 62 76 53 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1250130 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 641 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds have already materialized in the wake of a cold front that passed through Southeast Texas earlier on Tuesday. Winds will be strongest overnight and again this afternoon, with a modest lull in the morning. At their peak, sustained winds look to reach 20-30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph in isolated spots. A wind advisory is in place across Southeast Texas today. - Along with the strong winds, much lower humidity will occur this afternoon. Where these dry, windy conditions overlap with areas that have seen the least rain since last weekend, critical fire weather conditions are expected to emerge with rapid or explosive fire growth possible. This is most likely to occur west of the San Bernard River where a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Wednesday. - The rest of the area will see near-critical fire weather conditions emerge. Though either rain from previous days or slightly higher humidity may preclude explosive fire growth, conditions will still be dry and windy in an area of long term drought, making new fires able to spread rapidly. Even outside the red flag warning area, residents should use great care to avoid the ignition of wildland fires. - The strong winds will also bring hazardous marine conditions to area bays and coastal Gulf waters. A Gale Warning remains in place for this evening through 1 AM Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 After a long period of advertisement and anticipation, the long- awaited cold front to usher in real autumn conditions has arrived. Unfortunately, in addition to the lovely crispness of fall, it also brought a host of other, more hazardous guests along with it. For more specifics on today`s fire weather threat, the gales developing on all coastal waters, and yesterday`s record highs please see the Fire Weather, Marine, and Climate sections, respectively, down below. One thing that is thankfully past us along with the cold front is the severe weather threat. The storms that developed ahead of and along the front are now well over the Gulf. Though the most severe storms were to the northeast and east of our area, we were not entirely unscathed. There were numerous gusty storms with winds over 30 mph, and a few instances of winds exceeding 40 mph. Along with that was briefly heavy rain, with rain rates of an inch in less than 15 minutes in multiple locations. Finally, a couple storms were capable of small hail, and a possible waterspout near San Luis Pass prompted a brief tornado warning there. Going forward, we are now experiencing a mostly clear sky, but with strong northwest to north winds already across the entire area. Sustained winds as high as 25-30 mph with gusts to nearly 50 mph are being reported in isolated spots, and windy conditions are expected to continue, with an area-wide wind advisory in place. Winds look to be strongest in a window through the overnight hours, go into a bit of a lull in the morning, then increase again through the afternoon. At their strongest, look for winds in the 20-30 mph range along with gusts as high as 50 mph in the windiest, most exposed locations. The air these winds are bringing in behind the front is colder and MUCH drier. After yesterday`s record or near record highs, look for highs this afternoon to be a good 20 degrees colder, in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees in the warmer spots. Despite the cooling, the very low humidity of the air means that minimum RH looks to drop as low as the upper teens well west of the Houston metro, and even the least impacted locations should see RH fall to around or below 35 percent. We have a red flag warning out for the driest, windiest locations (which also has the driest vegetation) today to highlight where the most severe conditions are. However, conditions area-wide will still be supportive of the ignition and spread of wildland fires. Yes, rain yesterday may help mitigate ignition potential somewhat, but we are still in an area of emerging drought, so that help will be somewhat muted by the already dry landscape. Also, even where RH may not fall quite as low, it will still be low enough for new wildfire starts. And, area-wide, the winds will help new wildfires spread rapidly. Winds should finally begin to die down late Wednesday night or Thursday, and we should finally get a little more opportunity to enjoy the end of the continuing summer that we`ve seen through September and October. Of course, the dry air will stick with us, so it`s still a smart idea to keep those fire safety habits with us through the week. Looking out towards the weekend, we`ll see another trough dig deep into Texas, and give us another front and another opportunity for rain and storms. This looks like a pretty vigorous trough, and something we may need to keep an eye on for a few stronger storms again. What looks like the key factor here is how quickly winds turn back to being onshore, and how vigorous moisture return from the Gulf before we look at storms arriving Saturday into Sunday. If things get loaded up, we may find ourselves evaluating severe storm potential yet again. If moisture return is meager, this could choke things off and result more in a smattering of scattered showers and a few weaker thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Strong & gusty northwest winds continue early this morning, with low level shear present due to 40-50 knot winds around 2,0000ft. Surface winds strengthen to 20-25 kts (gusting 30kts) after sunrise, reducing wind shear during the daytime. Surface winds will start to decrease this evening. Winds aloft may still be near 35 knots at around 2,000ft, so a brief period of weaker LLWS may be possible tonight through around midnight before winds aloft diminish as well. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A cold front has pushed off the coast and out over the open Gulf. In its wake, strong northwest winds are materializing along with building seas. Gale force gusts are already occurring at multiple coastal locations, and should be expected to expand across the waters late tonight. These winds may see a modest lull in the morning, but are expected to increase again Wednesday afternoon, so the gale warning will continue. Winds are expected to drop below gale criteria overnight Wednesday. However, hazardous marine conditions are likely to continue into Thursday, and small craft advisories should be expected to replace the gale warning when winds finally do begin to more substantially diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 The expected cold front has passed through Southeast Texas, and strong winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 45-50 mph are already materializing across the area tonight. These winds are also surging in cooler, but also *much* drier air, setting us up for a day of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across the entire area. Where the worst fuels, wind, and humidity conditions line up, a red flag warning is in effect today. For the rest of the area, though conditions may not be quite as severe in the warning area, conditions will still be near those dangerous thresholds. Whether one is in the red flag warning area or not, it will be important to obey all area burn bans. Even in locations where a burn ban is not in effect, fire use should be avoided today. Across the entire area, it is very important to use extreme caution with work and equipment that could throw sparks into dry vegetation. Even something as simple as a loose chain dragging from a vehicle could start a wildfire. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Prior to the arrival of the cold front, record high temperatures occurred at Houston/Hobby Airport and Galveston. Hobby set a new record high temperature of 91, breaking the 1991/1977 record of 89 degrees. At Galveston, the high of 85 tied the existing daily record high last seen in 2024 and 2023 before that. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 55 71 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210-211-226-235-236-335-336-436. GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. && $$ |
| #1250129 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 729 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Isolated showers along the east coast today. - Poor marine and beach conditions tonight through Thursday night. - First prolonged taste of fall-like weather arrives on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Satellite and model analysis depict the upper-level pattern characterized by a large central/eastern CONUS trough, with shortwaves off the NE coast, over the eastern Great Lakes, and across the MS Valley up through the Plains. A 06z subjective surface analysis places a quasi-stationary surface boundary across far south Florida this morning. As the associated surface low is moving north through the NW Atlantic, and a narrow ridge axis extends down the Eastern Seaboard, the mostly NErly flow will both prevent the front from completely clearing the area as it decays and also keep a low-level maritime influence under the deep-layer dry air aloft. This will result in isolated to scattered showers along the coastal interface/decaying front through today. In general, however, rain chances will remain low (~20-40%) across the east coast. The frontal system exiting the MS Valley and moving into the TN Valley this morning, will begin occluding as it moves through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast through the period. The shortwave associated with this system will amplify the eastern CONUS trough enough to advect lower heights and cooler upper-level temperatures across Florida on Thursday. At the surface, the ridging in the wake of the front will give us a long enough period of northerly flow to clear the front through Florida, and bring a drier, more continental airmass down the state. As the front moves through South Florida tonight through tomorrow morning, the deep-layer dry air will preclude thunderstorm development, but enough low-level moisture will be present that could allow a few showers to persist immediately along the front. While we await the core of the cooler air today, highs will be able to creep into the mid to upper 80s, and with the aforementioned low level moisture, heat indices will remain in the 90s once again. Lows tonight may be a couple degrees cooler than this morning, but it won`t be until Thursday night that we start to feel the more fall-like nights. Cooler temps aloft and drier conditions will result in a pleasant afternoon on Thursday with highs peaking in the low 80s across the southern half of south Florida, and likely not reaching 80 to the north. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Thursday night through the weekend will feature cool nights and seasonable afternoons. Thursday night and Friday night will be the coolest nights with lows falling into the low 50s in the Lake Region, and up to the low 60s along the coasts. Temperatures will begin to moderate Saturday night into Sunday as maritime flow becomes established again along the southern edge of the surface ridge. No rain is expected through the weekend. Models diverge heading into next week regarding the evolution of the next frontal system. Specifically, they differ in just how progressive the eastern CONUS trough pattern is and also whether a central CONUS shortwave is able to cutoff and drift into the Deep South. These differences will have an impact on where a surface low develops, how strong it will be, and what kind of impacts we receive locally. For now it looks like the majority of the ensemble members avoid the cutoff scenario and instead bring a less dynamic frontal system through the region early next week. This more likely scenario would result in less overall rain impacts, but bring a return to milder and more moist conditions earlier. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Light NWrly flow this morning will veer NErly at east coast terminals by 16-18z as a weak Atlantic sea-breeze pushes inland. Isolated SHRA is possible at east coast terminals 20z-01z before activity pushes offshore. Winds will veer WNWrly at all terminals after sunset before increasing and veering NWrly once again behind a frontal passage. Mainly dry and VFR throughout the TAF period, however MVFR cigs/vis is possible in and around shower activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A gentle breeze will continue through Wednesday in the wake of a frontal boundary, but is expected to increase through moderate to a fresh breeze as a stronger front approaches and Melissa moves NE through the western Atlantic on Thursday. A 2-4 foot northerly swell will spread south across the Gulf stream today, with seas increasing further tonight into Thursday to about 5-7 feet across both the Gulf and Atlantic. Winds and seas will quickly subside through the day on Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Increased onshore flow along Gulf beaches and increased surf from northerly swell in the Atlantic will result in a high rip current risk along both coasts starting tonight and lasting through Thursday night. Conditions will improve through the day on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 69 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 West Kendall 87 67 82 61 / 20 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 87 69 82 61 / 20 10 0 0 Homestead 86 68 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 68 80 61 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 68 79 61 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 88 69 83 62 / 20 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 84 67 78 59 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 86 67 81 60 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 84 70 79 61 / 0 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ069-168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ |
| #1250128 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Cold frontal passage tonight with showers and a few thunderstorms. Much cooler air in the wake of the cold front. - Hazardous marine conditions to return after frontal passage tonight. Gale conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. - Windy conditions late tonight and Wednesday, especially downwind of Lake Pontchartrain. Elevated roadways will be especially susceptible to strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A potent upper level low at the base of a deepening longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS will continue to push a strong cold front through the forecast area over the next few hours. The front should be well offshore and out of the forecast area by daybreak. In advance of the front, the combination of strong forcing and just enough moisture have produced a broken line of showers and few thunderstorms. Fortunately, the severe thunderstorm risk has diminished due to a lack of instability over the area late this evening. Once the rain clears the coast late tonight, a dry weather regime will take hold and remain in place through Thursday night on the back of a deep layer northwest flow pattern in the mid and upper levels. The other concern for Wednesday will be strong flow aloft that is being induced by the tight pressure gradient associated with the upper level low moving through the Deep South. Strong winds of 30 to 40 mph will easily mix down to the surface in the form of frequent gusts starting late tonight and continuing into Wednesday afternoon. Given these frequent wind gusts, a wind advisory has been expanded to include nearly all of the forecast area. The winds will rapidly diminish in the evening hours as the upper level low pulls away and the pressure gradient weakens over the region. The upper level low will also push a thermal trough into the area resulting in temperatures running a good 10 to 15 degrees below average through the period. Lows may even dip into the upper 30s over parts of the Northshore on Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Overall, the upper level pattern will be little changed through the weekend and into early next week. The region will remain embedded within a broader longwave trough axis. Another potent vorticity max and upper level low will swing down from the northern Plains and into the Deep South over the weekend, and this will drive a reinforcing front through the area Saturday night into Sunday. Although moisture return will be limited in advance of the front, strong forcing along the front will combine with the limited moisture to produce some isolated shower activity Saturday night into Sunday morning, and this reflected with 20 PoP in the forecast. Although this reinforcing front will keep a drier airmass in place early next week, temperatures will not change dramatically. Readings will remain below average by 5 to 10 degrees through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 This morning the immediate concern is gusty surface winds and LLWS for the northwestern terminals. Shear should be reduced shortly as surface winds balance a bit as they increase after sunrise. Northwesterly winds with some gusts upward of 25-30kts expected through the day. Tonight the winds will gradually decrease, however, there is a signal for CIGs dropping into the MVFR range for most terminals as a low stratus deck develops after midnight or so. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A strong cold front will bring gale conditions to the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night as much colder and drier air moving over the warmer waters allows winds to reach gale force. A Gale Warning is in effect from early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Small craft advisory conditions may persist into Thursday afternoon, but lighter winds and calmer seas are anticipated by Friday as a high pressure system builds over the waters. A reinforcing front will move through the waters Saturday night into Sunday, but winds will remain below advisory criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 47 63 41 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 64 47 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 65 47 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 68 52 68 51 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 66 50 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 69 47 67 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1250127 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 725 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... While the prior coastal low shifts further offshore, coastal impacts, periods of light to moderate rainfall, and hazardous marine conditions will continue today. A frontal system will push through the area on Thursday with drier high pressure building in late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - NE winds continue decreasing as coastal low moves further away - Secondary weak coastal low brings rain, a wind shift, and a threat of waterspouts near OBX - Minor soundside flooding and minor to moderate oceanside flooding and ocean overwash expected (see Coastal Flooding section) Low pressure which brought us our gusty winds yesterday is now well offshore, with winds having subsided quite a bit this morning. A weak low should form this morning offshore of Cape Fear, reaching our coastline by late morning into the afternoon. Impacts will be low with this weak low, just bringing some rain and shifting winds from N/NE to S/SE. Lack of a strong pressure gradient keeps winds below any impact criteria later this morning. On the rainfall side, some moderate rainfall can be expected for OBX as the weak coastal low approaches with lighter rainfall persisting for the remainder of the CWA as another dreary overcast and rainy day is in store. Something of note, we do have pretty substantial low level helicities in the upper right quadrant of the coastal low, bringing a threat of waterspouts that can reach the shore of OBX and northern Pamlico Sound communities today. See COASTAL FLOODING section for coastal flooding threats. Cloudy, rainy conditions today keep highs near 60 inland, near 70 for OBX where coastal low bring some southerly flow and warmer air. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday.. Surface low near Tennessee tracks NE`wards into the Mid- Atlantic and eventually the Northeast tonight into tomorrow with associated warm front lifting north across ENC tonight with winds becoming southerly behind it. This will likely put us in the warm sector briefly Thursday morning. However, given the lack of residence time instability only builds to about 500 J/kg max, though with widespread deep layer shear a few stronger storms wont be out of the question late tonight with the N`ward moving warm front. For now an isolated stronger wind gust (40-60 mph) would be the main concern, though a few waterspouts pushing inland near the N`ward lifting warm front tonight certainly isn`t out of the question given favorable low level shear profiles. Yet another cloudy night with light southerly winds keeps low temps moderated, upper 50s inland and mid 60s for OBX. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wed... Key Messages: - A cold front is forecast push across ENC on Thursday bringing period of rain, a low end chance of stronger thunderstorms, and potential for minor coastal flooding impacts behind this front -Fair but cooler weather expected this weekend Thurs...Negatively tilted upper trough will be tracking NE`wards into the Interior Northeast on Thurs while Jet streak over the region will push offshore. Mid level shortwave will be making its way across the Mid-Atlantic as well, while at the surface, low pressure system in the Northeast will continue NE`wards while its associated cold front quickly sweeps E`wards across ENC Thurs morning, pushing offshore by Thurs afternoon with high pressure building in behind the departing front. Out ahead of the front S`rly flow will continue to advect moisture and some instability out ahead of the front with MUCAPES noted around 500 J/kg Thurs morning across portions of ENC mainly east of Hwy 17. At the same time widespread deep layer shear of 50-70 kts and 0-1 km layer shear around 20-25 kts will also be noted. Combined with the stronger forcing from the surface front and favorable upper level pattern, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be noted out ahead of the front with a few isolated storms becoming strong in nature given the somewhat favorable environment. While lower instability values will likely limit lightning threat Thurs morning, ample shear should create an opportunity for some isolated stronger wind gusts (40-60 mph) and maybe a brief waterspout within the strongest storms along and out ahead of this front Thurs morning. By mid afternoon expect any precip chances to end across ENC as aforementioned front quickly pushes offshore with skies rapidly clearing behind the front and a steady W`rly wind noted behind the front. Highs get into the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Westerly winds Thursday will be on the increase Thurs night but will be weaker compared to previous days. This will bring a lesser threat for coastal flooding across the sounds but elevated waters levels will likely remain overnight Thurs soundside across the more vulnerable locations. With elevated swell remaining in place, another limited coastal flooding threat along vulnerable OBX beaches is possible as large waves continue offshore. Fri through Sun...A brief zonal pattern will be in place across the Eastern Seaboard over this weekend as a positively tilted trough begins to move across the Plains Fri/Sat. This trough will bring our next forecast challenge later in the long term as model guidance continues to remain spread on the eventual evolution of this trough. However, recent trends suggest this trough will cut off into a closed low in the Deep South Sat/Sun and near the Southeast early next week. This is supported by the GFS/ECWMF and AI guidance with the Canadian being the outlier and more progressive with the trough. Either way, any impacts from this trough likely wouldn`t be felt until next week given latest guidance. At the surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic bringing lighter W`rly winds by Fri night as well as clear skies this weekend. During the days highs get into the 60s and with light winds and clear skies expected each night, went towards the lower end of guidance Fri/Sat night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and 40s to 50s along the OBX. Mon through mid week next week....All eyes will be on the eventual evolution of the closed low in the Deep South, latest trends suggest this upper low gradually pushes across the Southeast Mon night through Tue, then pushing off the coast by midweek. At the surface this could promote cyclogenesis in the Southeast either in Georgia or just off the coast with this low then tracking NE`wards. This low would bring the potential for more unsettled conditions to the area Mon night into Tue. However, given uncertainty in exact evolution in the upper level pattern surface low impacts remain unknown at this time. For now, its something to keep an eye on. Temps remain about avg to slightly below avg next week. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 720 AM Wednesday...Widespread light rain and IFR cigs (600-900 ft) are expected to persist through morning hours. As we get into the afternoon, brief rises to MVFR are possible, but I could also see a scenario where we remain IFR through the day. Elected to go towards this more pessimistic outcome given the 6Z guidance trended more towards IFR. Tonight, warm front lifts through the region bringing additional moderate rainfall and continued IFR to potentially LIFR conditions. Winds start off N/NE this morning, becoming S/SE this evening and tonight behind the warm front. Early morning tomorrow, cold front precip starts moving in from the west. This brings a risk of VCTS and brief periods of heavier rainfall, in addition to gusty winds. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Adverse flying conditions expected Thursday morning as low pressure and its associated fronts impact the region. Sub-VFR conditions will continue as a cold front will track across ENC Thurs morning/afternoon once again bringing another round of showers and storms and some breezy S`rly winds. Winds do shift to a W`rly direction behind the front and will be on the increase with gusts up around 15 to 25 mph Thurs night into Fri before winds ease Fri night. However, behind the front VFR conditions return to ENC after days of sub-VFR conditions. Mainly VFR conditions then forecast through this weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - N/NE Winds lessening as pressure gradient relaxes - High, treacherous seas linger despite the decreased winds - Winds shift to the south and briefly strengthen this evening and tonight Gale warnings have been dropped, replaced with Small Craft Advisories for coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. Other sounds/rivers are seeing winds below 25 kts, so they are now headline free. Guidance and observations continue to suggest that a secondary, weaker area of low pressure will linger south of Cape Lookout this morning before meandering northward towards the OBX later today. High- res guidance suggests that this will allow the coastal trough axis to pivot closer ashore, which may allow gusts to SCA levels to persist (or ramp back up after a brief reprieve) along coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound today. This may also lead to some variation in wind direction, with northeasterly winds west of the trough axis and east/southeasterly winds east of the trough axis. There is also a chance for gusts near or just above 25 knots for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator and Neuse rivers this evening as the gradient briefly gets pinched with the weak coastal low passage. As of right now, it looks like these gusts should be brief (2-4 hrs) in nature, and on the more marginal side. For this reason, elected to not have a SCA out for these waters, instead deciding to have a wait and see approach. If the 12Z guidance trends stronger or longer duration, SCAs may need to be hoisted again. Buoy obs currently shows waves 10-15 ft at 11-13 seconds across the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, with waves 8-10 ft reported at the Onslow Bay buoy. Waves will be slow to subside, remaining dangerous through the short term. By tomorrow morning, they should be 6-10 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet, 4-8 ft south of Ocracoke Inlet. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Poor boating conditions continue across our waters into this weekend as a cold front tracks across the region Thurs -While winds ease this weekend seas along our coastal waters remain elevated into Sat promoting SCA`s into this weekend. Cold front will be nearing our coastal waters Thurs morning promoting 5-15 kt S`rly winds and 20 kt gusts as well as scattered showers and storms across our waters. Strongest storms could bring a localized threat for damaging winds and a brief water spout. With the weaker winds sub SCA conditions will be noted across the inland waters but with seas around 6-10 ft north of Cape Lookout and 3-7 ft south of Cape Lookout, coastal waters will have ongoing SCA`s in place. Front will push offshore by Thurs afternoon with high pressure building in behind it. This will shift winds to a W`rly direction, but increase them Thurs night into Fri to 20-30 kts once again bringing SCA conditions to just about all our waters. Winds finally ease Fri evening to 5-15 kts as high pressure builds overhead lessening the pressure gradient. However, with seas remaining above 6 ft along our coastal waters SCA`s will remain here until at least Sat morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Not much change to the forecast. While winds continue to ease, dangerous surf will continue to bring a threat for ocean overwash and minor to moderate, locally significant coastal flooding oceanside from Duck down to Ocracoke. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks through 8PM tonight for the potential for minor impacts (1-2 ft above ground level). While the ongoing Coastal Flood warning remains in effect from Oregon Inlet down to Ocracoke Island until 8PM tonight for the potential for moderate to locally significant impacts (2-3 ft above ground level, with locally higher amounts up to 4 ft possible). Given elevated surf will continue into Thursday wont be surprised if this coastal flood warning gets replaced by an advisory tonight. Further south, a Coastal Flood advisory remains in effect until 11AM across areas surrounding the inland rivers and southern Pamlico Sound for the potential of 1-2 ft of inundation. A low pressure system and its associated cold front is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance continues to depict an inland track for this low. This will cause 15- 25 kt winds to veer from southeasterly to southerly Wednesday night and southwesterly through Thursday. Winds speeds are not high enough to bring much in the way of coastal flooding concerns across the sounds with the second low pressure system but we may see some minor seiching across northern as eastern shores as the wind shifts directions. However, large waves on the order of 8-12 feet will likely continue to bring ocean overwash concerns along vulnerable portions of the OBX. In addition, Hurricane Melissa is forecast to pass well offshore late this week and we could see large swells continue to impact the beaches late week and next weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ080- 094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ196. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ |
| #1250126 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 726 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the weekend. A low pressure system could impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAD will remain across the forecast this morning, expected to gradually weaken during the afternoon. Near term guidance keeps an approaching cold front west of the forecast area through 21Z. Wind should remain from the NNE between 5 to 10 mph this morning, shifting from the SE this afternoon. Temperatures should remain generally steady in the 50s this morning, then gradually warming into the 60s this afternoon. The cold front is timed to sweep across the forecast area this evening. A thin line of isolated to scattered showers may develop along and ahead of the cold front. These showers may produce a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain along and west of I-95, with less than a tenth of an inch to the east. Behind the cold front, H85 CAA may drop temperatures from 10-12C during the evening across SE GA to 3-4C by sunrise Thursday. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 40s across SE GA to around 50 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will prevail across the region through the short term period, building into the region from the west. Aloft the mid levels will consist of broad troughing to nearly zonal flow. This pattern will yield rain-free conditions, with the main forecast highlight being the below normal temperatures. Each day is forecast to only reach into the mid to upper 60s, roughly 5-7 degrees below normal across the region. The coldest time frame of the period will be Friday night, where low temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 30s far inland, with mid to upper 40s along the coastal counties. Frost cannot be ruled out far inland, and a Frost Advisory may be required for inland counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The zonal flow aloft will begin to transition to troughing as a mid- level trough digs towards the southeastern states. High pressure at the surface will shift offshore as a low pressure system develops in the northern Gulf. Despite the approaching low pressure system and its associated cold front, the forecast remains dry through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, returning to near normal by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite and observations indicated widespread IFR ceilings with periods of MVFR visibility with drizzle and mist. Based on satellite trends and MOS, IFR ceilings should remain through the rest of the morning at KCHS and KJZI, ending at KSAV by mid-morning. The rest of the day should see some return flow from the southeast as a cold front approaches from the east. Cloud bases are forecast to lift to MVFR this afternoon at KCHS and KJZI, VFR at KSAV. The cold front is timed to reach KSAV this evening, winds veering from the west by 4Z. Also, a thin line of showers is possible with the passage of the cold front at KCHS and KJZI by 6Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Gusty W to NW winds around 20 mph are possible on Thursday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Weakening high pressure will yield northeast winds generally between 10-15 kts today, shifting from the southeast late this afternoon. Seas should slowly subside today, remaining between 5-6 ft across the Charleston County nearshore and outer GA waters today, highlighted with Small Craft Advisories. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the marine zones by late this evening. As the front passes, winds will turn from the west with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts. In the wake of the front, winds should gradually settle into the low 20s. Seas may increase by one foot overnight. It is possible that Small Craft Advisories may expand across the nearshore waters of GA and lower SC. Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will prevail over the marine waters through the period. Elevated seas from distant Hurricane Melissa will linger into Thursday, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Charleston nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters through Friday afternoon. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria. Rip Currents: A combination of increasing swell and strong NE winds will yield a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all area beaches both today and Thursday. An enhanced risk of rip currents will likely persist into late-week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-374. && $$ |
| #1250125 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - The arrival of a strong cold front tonight will result low to medium rain chances tonight, and notably cooler temperatures tomorrow through late week. - A Gale Warning is in effect late this evening into Wednesday evening over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the immediate coast late this evening into Wednesday afternoon. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Wednesday due to the combination of very low humidity, dry fuels, and breezy north to northwest winds. - A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect on Wednesday along the Lower Texas beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A cold front is currently moving south through Deep South Texas, bringing stronger winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple hazards. There is a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along the front, with the strongest convection limited to the Gulf waters. Model guidance continues to show further convective development further inland, and radar and satellite imagery show a recent increase in convection. These showers and thunderstorms will likely move out of the area within the next couple hours as the front pushes further south into Mexico. Behind the front, a cooler and drier air mass will move into Deep South Texas, allowing low temperatures to fall to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. The cooler temperatures will continue through the next several days, with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight low temperatures in the 40s to low 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected through Wednesday evening. This will build higher surf and increase rip current strength along the Lower Texas Coast. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for Wednesday at area beaches. Additionally, a Wind Advisory is in place for the barrier islands and intimidate coast through early Wednesday afternoon. Coastal flooding may also be a concern tonight. The substantially drier air will drop afternoon relative humidity values into the low teens to single digits Wednesday and Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in place across Deep South Texas Wednesday, as strong winds combined with this dry air will increase potential for rapid fire spread if any wildfires occur. Lower wind speeds are forecast for Thursday afternoon, which will likely limit fire weather potential in spite of the low relative humidity values. Winds forecast to weaken and shift back to the southeast Thursday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds continuing through the remainder of the period. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures are forecast to return to the mid to upper 80s by Saturday while low temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with gusty northerly winds topping 30 kts into this afternoon. Skies are expected to clear out into tonight with diminishing winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A Gale Warning is in place for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through early Thursday morning. A cold front is currently moving south across the coastal waters and Deep South Texas, bringing stronger winds in its wake. Wind speeds up to 35 knots with gusts to 40 knots are possible tonight and Wednesday. These winds will build higher seas, with seas up to 15 feet possible over the Gulf waters. Conditions are expected to improve Thursday, as winds weaken and gradually shift back to the southeast, allowing seas to slowly subside. Light winds and calm seas are expected to return this weekend, with generally favorable conditions expected to continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 In the wake of tonight`s cold front much drier air and stronger winds are expected through the day Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to the low teens Wednesday afternoon, while 20 foot winds are forecast to reach 15-20 knots with stronger gusts. This combination is expected to rapidly dry fuels, and could support rapid wildfire spread and erratic fire behavior Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected to continue Thursday, however wind speeds are expected to be much lower Thursday, and likely wont support elevated fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 79 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 53 73 66 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 50 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ351-354-355- 451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ |
| #1250124 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 727 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk Today Northeast Florida Beaches - Small Craft Advisory through Thursday - Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin. Elevated tides through early November minor tidal flood risk - Patchy Inland Frost Potential Saturday Morning && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Almost the entirety of the area remains socked into low clouds with areas of drizzle and fog early this morning, though things are expected to change throughout the day today as a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon. Low clouds are expected to linger through about mid to late morning before wind direction shifts more southeast to southerly by this afternoon and helps to mix us out. Rather weak convection ahead of the frontal boundary looks to start impacting western areas by about the late afternoon time frame in the form of a somewhat broken line of showers. Fortunately for us, the northeasterly drainage like flow that`s been in place over the past 24+ hours has left a lack of low level moisture to maintain higher chances for rain with the line. This goes hand in hand with expected instability as well, especially with low clouds taking their time this morning to mix out. Therefore, despite modestly strong fall frontal passage, chances for rain and especially thunderstorms are expected to be on the lower side, with the best chances for rainfall being generally over western areas and especially inland southeast GA closer to more favorable upper level support that will be lifting northeast of the area through tonight. High temps are a bit tricky today, with the two main factors being how quickly low clouds scatter out this morning/afternoon, as well as how short lived we will be in the warm sector ahead of the front and how much of a boost in temps that will give us. All in all, expecting to average out to widespread 70s across the area, with some potential for some low 80s over far southern areas where expect low clouds to move out the quickest. The front clears the area from northwest to southeast this evening through early Thursday Morning, ushering in a cool and dry west to northwesterly flow area-wide with cloud cover also mostly clearing out rather quickly. Temperatures and dew points crash throughout the night, featuring lows mostly in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s near the coast and St. Johns River. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Cool and dry with gusty post-frontal westerly winds Thursday between high pressure building eastward across the Gulf Coast states and an approaching reinforcing dry front sliding southward down the SE region. The high builds NNW of the region through Friday with a ridge axis extending across the local area bringing lighter winds as the aforementioned dry front slides offshore of the Atlantic coast. Clear skies prevail Friday into Friday night, with a low to medium chance for some patchy inland frost mainly across southeast GA and areas north and west of the JAX metro area including locations near and north of the I-10 corridor in cooler pockets under good radiational cooling conditions. The latest 01z NBM CONUS run advertised the higher probabilities of (30-40%) of temperatures 36degF or below between Waycross, Hilliard and Glen St. Marys. This would be the first frost of this season. Temperatures will trend below normal this period with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to a few mid/upper 30s well inland Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Dry weather prevails this weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures as the surface high north of the area shifts offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday into Sunday. Low level winds shift to onshore/easterly Sunday as a coastal trough begins to form over the local Atlantic waters, with the low level pressure gradient increasing late Sunday into Monday as this coastal trough morphs into a lifting warm front ahead of the next approaching frontal system. With breezy onshore flow by Monday, a chance of coastal showers returns to the forecast with elevated rip current risk and tidal flooding impacts. Monday into Tuesday, the next frontal system approaches from the west, but there remains a great deal of forecast model discrepancies with the evolution, timing and track of synoptic features, including the track of a frontal surface low. The official NWS NBM extended model guidance is weighed more toward the ECMWF solution which shows a surface low across the southern Gulf with breezy onshore flow across the local area in the cool sector of this system and a drier forecast with just passing showers. However, ensemble runs of the GEFS, GEPS and ENS show a wetter solution with the operational GFS having a potential squall line scenario Mon/Tue with a strong cold front passage and cool down Tue into Wed. Given high uncertainty, there is very low confidence in the Mon-Wed time frame with regards to severe storm risk. What does look likely is a continuation of tidal flooding impacts with the approach of the full moon Nov. 5th. High temperatures will moderate this period back toward seasonal averages with highs in the 70s with lows near to below normal ranging from the 40s/50s inland to 60s coast. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A warm front continues its motion northward through the region this morning ahead of an incoming cold that will push in from the west tonight. Improving flight conditions are expected through the rest of the morning hours as winds veer southerly with the passing warm front. VFR conditions are expected by the afternoon and are expected through Thursday as much drier air scours out moisture. There will be a wind shift to the west this evening between 01-03z with the cold fropa, which could bring an hour or so of gusts up to 20 knots with the passage itself. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers with the front either but this will be brief, if at all. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Low clouds and areas of mist/drizzle over area waters will subside later this morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds will shift more southeast to southerly ahead of the front before it moves through tonight as Hurricane Melissa moves well to the east of the region. High pressure builds in from the northwest behind the front, with breezy conditions expected through Thursday. Conditions subside Friday and into Saturday as high pressure moves almost directly over the area. Another frontal system is expected to approach the area Sunday, likely bringing unsettled conditions once again through at least Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Coastal flood advisory continues for the St. Johns River basin from downtown JAX southward to Satsuma where peak inundation up to 1.5 ft MHHW is expected around high tides. Expect this trend will continue for at least the next couple of days, but likely through much of next week as astronomical tides further increase with the approach of the Nov. 5th full moon. Will continue to monitor observations to see if the advisory needs to be extended to include the ICW of St. Johns and Flagler counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 45 66 41 / 30 40 0 0 SSI 73 49 68 47 / 0 30 0 0 JAX 76 50 71 45 / 0 20 0 0 SGJ 77 53 71 49 / 0 20 0 0 GNV 78 49 71 43 / 0 20 0 0 OCF 77 52 71 45 / 0 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ132-137- 325-633. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1250123 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 709 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will result in cool temperatures through tomorrow night with widely scattered ocean-effect showers possible, mainly near and southeast of I-95. A strong low pressure system will bring a period of moderate-heavy windswept rain for southern New England later Thursday and Thursday night. Gradual drying early Friday morning followed by a period of gusty winds Friday into Saturday. Temperatures at or slightly below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures continue with scattered ocean-effect showers mainly near/southeast I-95. Details... Another day of surface high pressure in southern New England with a surface high positioned over Quebec. This will support similar conditions to Tuesday as steady, cool northeast flow will keep a persistent cloud deck over the region today. Can`t rule out a few ocean-effect showers, mainly near/southeast of I-95. Moisture subtly increases over the region toward the afternoon, but any showers are more likely to be widely scattered in coverage with light accumulation if any. It will still remain breezy across east/southeast southern New England with gusts up to 20 mph in eastern MA and closer to 20-30 mph for the Cape/Islands. High temperatures will likely range in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s for the higher elevation spots of the interior. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * A system will bring a period of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds later Thursday and Thursday night. * Some isolated nuisance street flooding possible, exacerbated by abundance of fallen leaves. Details... Tonight: Overall quiet overnight period. Northeast winds/gusts gradually decrease into the early evening, slower to weaken in southeast MA. Moisture increases through the night as a plume of above normal (150-200%) advects in from the south overnight. This will deepen moisture through the night. Model guidance doesn`t indicate any substantial chances for showers, but can`t rule out a few showers especially by Thursday AM. Low temperatures drop into the mid-30s to low 40s for the interior and mid-40s for coastal/near-coastal areas. Thursday-Thursday Night: No major changes among ensemble/deterministic guidance in regards to a storm system that will bring a period of moderate to brief heavy rainfall across southern New England Thursday/Thursday night. Guidance still depicts a digging mid- level trough with an associated upper low becoming negatively tiled, lifting northward across the mid-Atlantic and into the eastern Great Lakes. An associated surface low should also deepen as it tracks northward. Although, the envelope of ensemble members show that there is still some uncertainty in the low track with also question in if there will be secondary low development. The incoming trough and accompanying upper jet will provide large-scale lift across the region with a plume of above normal moisture advecting into the region within the SW flow aloft. This will support widespread moderate rainfall across the region, potentially heavy at times. For timing, confidence is moderate as there is some variation among model guidance on exact timing. Most guidance has the main bulk of rain arriving in the mid afternoon to early evening Thursday timeframe. A few showers are possible during the day. Rain continues Thursday night with pockets of heavy rainfall possible. Ensembles show a range of most likely amounts from 0.75-2.0", with some higher members showing localized 2.5-3.0". The location of the heavier amounts will depend on the track of the low, with guidance highlight the Cape/Islands as more likely to receive amounts 1-2"+ amounts. Given the progressive nature of this system, flash flooding is not likely, although some localized nuisance flooding in poor drainage/low lying areas is possible. Fallen leaves this time of year may potentially exacerbate the nuisance flooding due to clogging of storm drains. It will be fairly breezy with east/northeast winds expected with gusts 20-35 mph, potentially up to 40 mph for the Cape/Islands. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Details... Key Messages... * Gusty winds develop Friday with gusts potentially up to 40 mph for higher terrain and coastal areas. Details... The dry slot associated with the system pushes into the region early Friday morning decreasing showers. Things won`t completely dry out as there will likely be wrap around moisture around the low shifting across the region Friday. It should stay mainly dry with only a pop up shower or two with the cold pool overhead. The biggest concern for impacts will be the gusty winds. The exiting deep low will supply a sufficient pressure differential/gradient across southern New England. A 45-55 kt LLJ positions across the region with cold advection which will help provide more efficient means of mixing down the stronger winds to the surface. Ensembles show potential for gusts 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and evening. This seems to match what model soundings show. The max gusts will be a matter of how deep we can mix and likely stemming from the strength of the cold advection. The east slope of the Berkshires will be favored for higher gusts with westerly component flow even providing downslope enhancements as well. Coastal areas such as the Cape may also be at risk for higher gusts 35-40 mph. Wind headlines may be needed Friday and/or Friday night. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit Saturday reducing the risk for strong winds/gusts; however, it will still be windy on Saturday. Winds become lighter Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes even further. Dry conditions are expected with temperatures slightly below normal with highs in the low to mid 50s. Weak mid-level ridging continues into early next week keeping conditions mainly dry. Confidence decreases in the pattern toward mid-week with regard to a weak system moving through sometime Tue/Wed bringing the next shot for showers. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Wednesday...High Confidence. MVFR ceilings and steady northeast winds 8-12 kts with gusts around 20 kts for BOS and stronger (20+kts) for the Cape and Islands. A few light showers may develop near the east coast, Cape, and Islands by early to mid afternoon. Gusts decrease in the late afternoon for BOS and gradually weaken for Cape/Islands in the evening. Wednesday Night... High Confidence. MVFR ceilings and steady northeast winds around 10 knots. Isolated brief shower/sprinkle possible for east/southeast terminals. Thursday...High Confidence. Moderate for exact timing of rain. MVFR ceilings with IFR developing as the rain arrives with an incoming system. Rain arrives generally from west to east Thursday afternoon/early evening continuing Thursday night. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Brief VFR possible with ceilings above 3000 feet at times, but MVFR ceilings from 2000-3000 feet should prevail for most of the TAF period. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Saturday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient relaxes relative to Tuesday night. This will gradually diminish northeast winds throughout the day. Despite declining wind speeds, we`re still expecting 20 to 30 knot northeast gusts throughout the day with ocean-effect showers possible. Seas gradually subside by a foot or two as well, but remain elevated between 5 and 9 feet over the outer marine zones. These conditions will persist through tomorrow night. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1250122 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 710 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches from the west today as high pressure remains anchored to the north. This area of low pressure tracks northeast along the Appalachians tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy and cool today with light rain developing. Remaining breezy along the coast. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, with another upper low over southern MO/northern AR. At the surface, 1033mb high pressure is centered over central QB and extends to the S into the Mid-Atlantic region. The low pressure system from yesterday has moved well E of the Mid- Atlantic coast, with a trailing front off the Southeast coast. Overcast early this morning with a NE wind persisting, and gusting to 20-25 mph along the coast. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There are some areas of light rain and drizzle across far SE VA and NE NC as well as in vicinity of the MD coast. The upper low to the SW pushes E into the Mid-South today as the other upper low pivots to the NW. Meanwhile, there is decent model consensus for a surface low to develop along the boundary off the Southeast coast. This low then lifts N with light rain developing along its northern flank across the local area this afternoon. QPF for today (12z Wed-00z Thu) should generally be less than 0.25", with locally 0.25-0.5" possible or far s-central/SE VA and NE NC. The wind will be NE 10-15 mph today inland, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along the coast. Overcast conditions and NE flow today will result in high temperatures in the lower 50s across the Piedmont, to the mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight as another strong low pressure system approaches from the west. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The upper low over the Mid-South lifts NE toward the central Appalachians tonight with surface low pressure developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. This will result in a warm front lifting N into the local area. By Thursday, The upper system and surface low lift N of the area, with a cold front sweeping through from the W during the afternoon. Rain is expected to become more widespread and heavier across the Piedmont by this evening and gradually become more showery, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. 50th percentile QPF from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 29/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.5-1.25" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for central VA, and less than 0.5" farther S. There is a little more spread in 90th percentile is up to 1.5" across the northern tier of the area. Overall, the flood threat is quite low with this system. The 10th percentile form both ensemble systems during this 24hr period is around 0.5-0.8" across the northern tier of the area (which largely missed out on the first system), so most of the area should receive a beneficial rainfall. Given that a warm front lifts through the area late tonight/Thursday morning, there will be a low level veering wind profile with some convective potential possible. Therefore, SPC has the area in a Day 1 and Day 2 marginal severe risk, but this is generally a few hours either side of 12z/8 AM Thursday. Low level-lapse rates are very poor so the threat is very minimal. Rapidly improving conditions are expected from SW-NE Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be steady this evening, then begin to rise overnight (especially toward the coast), and then reach highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday. The wind should become SE then S tonight into Thursday morning, and then shift to W with gusts to 20- 25 mph as the cold front moves through Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Southeast Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts well NE of the region. Mainly clear/sunny Thursday night into Friday with lows in the 40s followed by highs in the lower to mid 60s. A breezy westerly wind is expected Friday with gusts to 25-30 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect Saturday night. Another low pressure system may try to move through the area early next week but confidence is low at this time. High temperatures should generally be in the 60s early next week, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 710 AM EDT Wednesday... 1033mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 11z and is ridging S into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure and a trailing front are located offshore of the Carolina coast. The wind is NE ~10kt inland and 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt near the coast. Cigs are primarily MVFR/IFR with areas of light rain across far SE VA and NE NC, and along the MD coast. MVFR and occasional IFR cigs persist through this morning and into the aftn, with IFR cigs developing at RIC by this aftn. Light rain will gradually increase in coverage today as a warm front approaches from the S. Low pressure approaches from the SW tonight with the warm front lifting into the region. MVFR and IFR cigs (potentially LIFR at RIC) are expected along with rain occasionally producing MVFR/IFR vsby. The wind will gradually become easterly later this aftn and evening and then SE by tonight, with gusts up to ~25 kt toward the coast. Showers and perhaps a tstm lift across the area Thursday morning as low pressure lifts NE of the region and pulls a cold front through. Conditions rapidly improve from SW-NE Thursday aftn. VFR conditions return Thursday night into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across most of the local waters through tonight due to elevated NE winds today becoming E tonight. - Gale Warnings have been issued for the northern coastal waters tonight due to E winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through tonight and into early Thursday given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-12 ft. - Another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory or low-end Gale conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday night due to elevated W winds behind a cold front. Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure continuing to move NE offshore with a strong ~1034mb area of high pressure across southern Quebec. Winds early this morning were generally NE 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. As the surface low moves farther offshore today, the pressure gradient slackens and winds gradually diminish to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (gusts up to 30 kt across the northern coastal waters). However, 00z guidance has come into better agreement on a secondary weak surface low forming off the Carolina coast today before lifting north across eastern NC this evening into tonight. This low will likely lift north along a warm front from another low in the Appalachian Mountains into early Thu morning, helping to tighten the pressure gradient once again late today into tonight. As a result, winds become E 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters and 25- 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters tonight. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts have increased to 50-70% across the coastal waters, 30-40% across the lower bay and 40-50% across the upper bay. Given the higher confidence (and greater chance for several hours of Gale gusts) across the northern coastal waters, have issued Gale Warnings for tonight. Have held off on Gale Warnings for the Ches Bay for now given uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of the 34 kt gusts tonight as there appears to be a relatively short window of ~3 hours (centered around 5z Thu) where gusts up to 34 kt are possible tonight. However, cannot rule out a short-fused Gale Warning (greatest chance across the upper bay) if model guidance today trends higher with the winds. Winds diminish and become SE Thu behind the warm front with a period of sub-SCA or low-end SCA conditions possible. Winds become SW and then W behind a cold front Thu evening into Thu night with another period of high end SCA to low-end Gales likely from late Thu into Fri night. Gale conditions are possible with this surge given strong CAA. However, will hold off on any potential Gale Watches for now given the current Gale Warnings already in effect. Wind probs remain generally low for now across the Ches Bay (<20 %) with higher probs across the coastal waters (50-70%). Winds diminish this weekend as high pressure builds in. Looking ahead, another period of elevated winds and seas is possible next week, however, confidence remains low. Waves were 3-5 ft (5-6 ft at the mouth of the bay) and seas were 8- 13 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) early this morning. Waves briefly subside today before becoming elevated again tonight. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated through Fri night (potentially into Sat). As such, High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the southern beaches through tonight and into Thu across the northern beaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 555 AM EDT Wednesday... Headlines remain in place through this morning`s high tide with widespread nuisance to minor coastal flooding expected. This morning`s high tide is the lowest high tide over the next couple of days for most locations given two ebb tides in a row. However, tidal anomalies are expected to rise to 2-3 ft above astro tide tonight through Thursday given strengthening easterly winds tonight, becoming southwest on Thursday. This will likely allow for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding across the Ches Bay and tidal rivers with minor flooding across the VA and MD beaches from this afternoon`s high tide through at least the Thursday afternoon high tide (Thursday night high tide across the middle and upper bay). Lewisetta and Bishops Head may even reach major flood stage on Thursday. As such, have upgraded Coastal Flood Watches to Coastal Flood Warnings across the upper bay where widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding is expected through the Thursday night high tide. Additionally, have upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning across the VA Eastern Shore beginning at noon today given the potential for moderate coastal flooding. Conditions are expected to improve by Friday with one more round of minor flooding possible across the eastern side of the bay given strong westerly winds. Given the prolonged period of NE winds, tidal gauges around the Currituck Sound have begun to show low water (around -1 feet MLLW). However, the drop in water levels here appears to have leveled out, and with diminishing winds today, expect the water levels to gradually rise above low water stage. As such, have held off on a Low Water Advisory for the Currituck Sound. However, if water levels continue to drop, a Low Water Advisory may be needed. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to midnight EDT Thursday night for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1250120 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 603 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Cooler temperatures through Thursday night - Dry through Friday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 The highly anticipated cold front moved through the region a couple of hours ago ushering in stronger winds, cooler temperatures and significantly drier air. The cooler temperatures will hang around through Thursday night with near normal temperatures returning Friday through early next week. Dry conditions are expected throughout the forecast period except for Saturday and Saturday night, where a low chance(20-35%) for showers are anticipated along the Coastal Bend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Gusty winds are expected through much of today, especially at eastern terminals where gusts over 30kt are expected. By this evening winds will subside and be light overnight. VFR conditions will persist through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Near Gale conditions (BF 7) are expected to continue into tomorrow morning weakening into a strong breeze (BF 6) tomorrow evening and a fresh breeze (BF 5) Thursday morning. Winds will continue to weaken to a gentle to moderate breeze by Thursday night. Dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week with medium chances (35-50%) for rain Saturday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Apart from minimum relative humidity values dropping into teens areawide tomorrow afternoon, Energy Release Component (ERC) values are expected to range from the 90-96th percentile across the Brush Country and 75-89th percentile for the rest of South Texas. As we head into Thursday afternoon, the ERC values are expected to worsen with most of South Texas in the 90-96th percentile with the exception of the Victoria Crossroads, who are expected to stay in the 75-89th percentile while minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 10-25%. These critically low relative humidity values and high ERC percentiles will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Minimum relative humidity values will remain critically low until Saturday which is when relative humidity values are expected to increase above critical levels. The most significant fire weather day will be tomorrow with critically low relative humidity values, high ERC values and strong winds gusting up to 30 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 42 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 76 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 75 52 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 74 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 57 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447. Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ232>234-242>247- 342>347-442-443-447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237- 250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1250118 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 641 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 641 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - A strong cold front will move through today with the coldest temperatures of the season so far in its wake. Scattered showers are expected ahead of the front with breezy conditions behind the front. A wind advisory is in effect for the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle for peak wind gusts around 40 mph as the front moves through. - A Gale Warning is currently in effect for our western Gulf waters for the potential to see frequent wind gusts around 35 knots. Otherwise, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the eastern half of our Gulf waters due to winds greater than 20 knots. - High surf is expected for the St Joseph Peninsula of Gulf county from this afternoon through Thursday with surf as high as 7 feet. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front will move through the area today with breezy conditions and cooler air behind it. A wind advisory is in effect for the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle for the potential for onshore westerly winds to gust near 40 mph at the beaches. A band of scattered showers is expected to precede the front, but the lack of robust moisture return is expected to preclude anything more than scattered light rainfall amounts. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the coolest temps to the NW and the warmest temps to the SE. Expect overnight low temps generally in the mid 40s to near 50. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A much cooler airmass will move in behind the cold front starting Thursday with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for most areas. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40s on Thursday night and even lower on Friday night thanks to favorable radiational cooling. Friday night could see some areas with lows well into the 30s for the first time this season. A slow but steady warming and moistening trend will have temperatures rebounding a few degrees each day over the weekend and into early next week. Forecast uncertainty increases by early next week with some guidance dropping a strong upper low into the southeast states with rain, while other guidance is more progressive and dry. The NBM PoPs are currently low for early next week, but the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF are wetter with a slower progression of the upper low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 MVFR with brief IFR cigs at ABY/VLD to start the day will lift to VFR from west to east this afternoon with the passage of a strong cold front. Accompanying the front, a thin line of showers/abrupt aftn wind shift from South to SE immediately ahead of it, to westerly behind it. The former is fcst to be sustained 12-15 kt - gusts in excess of 20 kt. Westerly wind gusts will subside around 00Z. Low clouds lurking northwest of the terminals should move into ABY and DHN 06-08Z w/MVFR cigs. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A cold front will push across the waters today with frequent gale force wind gusts, mainly west of Apalachicola. A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the western half of our waters today. Likewise, a small craft advisory is also in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola. High surf up to 7 feet is also expected along the St Joseph Peninsula this afternoon through Thursday with the strong westerly winds. Winds will diminish by Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front will quickly sweep across the region today, followed by strong northwest wind and much colder air on Thursday. Minimum RH values are expected to dip into the 30s for many location on Friday through Sunday afternoons. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Minimal rainfall is expected through the weekend. Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 49 67 43 / 30 0 0 0 Panama City 70 52 67 47 / 60 0 0 0 Dothan 64 46 62 39 / 50 0 0 0 Albany 67 47 63 41 / 50 10 0 0 Valdosta 72 47 67 42 / 30 10 0 0 Cross City 74 49 70 43 / 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 72 53 67 48 / 30 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ108-112- 114-115. Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ751-752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1250117 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 640 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through tonight. A cold front will cross the area early Thursday morning, bringing much drier weather. Dry high pressure to the west will gradually build east during the latter portion of the week. && .UPDATE... 12z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overcast skies will persist for most of today with CAD wedge still in place and weak low pressure starting to develop offshore. As a low pressure currently approaching the Mississippi Valley slowly moves eastward, southerly winds strengthen on top of the wedge. This will lead to shallow overrunning (evident via isentropic analyses on 295K and 300K levels), especially for SE NC, and expect on and off drizzle during the day. Without a strong enough mechanism to break the wedge (until tonight), the overcast skies and cool surface layer will be stubborn and therefore have undercut the NBM high temps for today by a few degrees, with highs in the upper 50s along I-95 corridor and low 60s across coastal counties. There is a brief window where the clouds may scatter enough to bring some sunshine to coastal areas late this afternoon. The aforementioned low pressure system to the west becomes a Miller type B storm later today as a new low center forms east of the Appalachians this evening and the wedge finally begins to break down. A cold front will move across the area tonight, though with lingering dry air aloft QPF with the front is quite minimal (0.1- 0.25"). Lows tonight will range from mid 40s to the west, where there will be longer time for clearing behind the front before Thursday morning, and mid 50s to the east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level cutoff and its surface low will be northwest of the area Thu morning with the cold front already to the north and east. Large dry slot wraps around the low Thu morning, creating a sharp clearing line behind the cold front. Forecast soundings do show some moisture trapped below the impressive subsidence inversion on Thu, which could lead to patches of low clouds after a bit of heating. Heating will also lead to surfacing of strong winds at the top of the mixed layer. Current soundings still showing 25-30 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer suggesting gusts as high as 30 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Elongated surface ridge across eastern TX and OK barely shifts east Thu into Fri, but the deepening low to the north will tighten the gradient. Sustained winds will be on the high end of the 10-15 kt range Thu along with the previously mentioned gusts to 30 mph. No impressively cold air or cold advection behind the front, but the troughing will result in temperatures below normal. Pattern aloft shifts from amplified to zonal Fri, helping shift the elongated ridge axis east and pushing a weak cold front across the area during the day. Front passes dry as there is no moisture to be found. Another breezy day with winds 25-30 kt at the top of the mixed layer once again mixing to the surface. Temperatures continue below normal, with potential for strong radiational cooling Fri night if the center of the high can setup overhead. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty in the long term, much of which revolves around a shortwave expected to drop south from central Canada to the western Gulf Coast. Nearly all of the medium range solutions agree another cutoff low will develop as a result of this shortwave, but the location and timing of this feature varies. Looking at the ensemble data and comparing the various deterministic guidance best guess is it forms over the western Gulf Coast states and then tracks roughly east-southeast Sun into Mon. Bulk of the guidance keeps the stacked low south of the area, something that typically results in limited rain chances while the developing wedge Sun and Mon keep temperatures below normal through Tue. However, confidence is very low for the beginning of next week. The current forecast is dry, but it is certainly possible the forecast ends up wetter than what is currently shown. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR conditions will prevail across SE NC and NE SC for most of the TAF period as low stratus remains locked in. Light rain will continue to fall on and off during the day. There is a window this evening where VFR conditions could develop at coastal terminals (ILM, CRE, MYR), but confidence is low. Patchy fog is also forecasted to develop late this evening into early overnight hours ahead of the front. Northeast winds prevail during the day today before turning southerly after midnight as a cold front approaches the area, and then southwesterly by Thursday morning behind the front. Rain chances increase tonight with frontal passage, although expect rain rates to be light and thunder chances will be quite low. Skies will clear from west to east towards end of TAF period (i.e., early Thursday morning) behind the front. Extended Outlook...Widespread VFR conditions are forecasted to return Thursday morning behind a cold front, with predominantly VFR conditions into the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Gusty northeast winds will weaken a bit this morning, with NE winds around 15-20 kts during the day today as a weak low forms offshore and persistent high pressure wedge inland. Seas will also improve during the day, with 4-6 ft seas across NE SC waters and 5-8 ft SE NC waters lowering to 3-5 ft across all local coastal waters tonight. While Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening, there will be a window of sub-advisory conditions for NE SC waters between this afternoon and midnight tonight. After midnight, winds increase and turn southwesterly as a cold front approaches from the west, and could see 30 kts gusts over the waters. Scattered showers will accompany the frontal passage along with an isolated thunder risk. Thursday through Sunday... Cold front will be north of the waters Thu morning setting up a period of westerly 20-30 kt flow into Fri. Gradient starts to relax late Thu night with offshore winds dropping under 20 kt Fri morning. Dry cold front later Fri leads to more of a northwesterly direction Fri night as high builds in from the west. Not much cold advection behind the front with winds gradually decreasing Fri night. Center of the high shifts east over the weekend with winds veering to northeast. Gradient is weak with no cool surge and speeds will remain under 10 kt. Seas flirt with 6 ft Thu into Fri before more offshore wind component reduces seas within 20 nm. Seas drop to 3-4 ft by the end of the day Fri and run 2-3 ft over the weekend. A southwest wind wave will be dominant early in the period before an easterly swell becomes dominant over the weekend. Late in the period a weak northeast wind wave will develop. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1250116 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 556 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches from the west today as high pressure remains anchored to the north. This area of low pressure tracks northeast along the Appalachians tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy and cool today with light rain developing. Remaining breezy along the coast. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, with another upper low over southern MO/northern AR. At the surface, 1033mb high pressure is centered over central QB and extends to the S into the Mid-Atlantic region. The low pressure system from yesterday has moved well E of the Mid- Atlantic coast, with a trailing front off the Southeast coast. Overcast early this morning with a NE wind persisting, and gusting to 20-25 mph along the coast. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There are some areas of light rain and drizzle across far SE VA and NE NC as well as in vicinity of the MD coast. The upper low to the SW pushes E into the Mid-South today as the other upper low pivots to the NW. Meanwhile, there is decent model consensus for a surface low to develop along the boundary off the Southeast coast. This low then lifts N with light rain developing along its northern flank across the local area this afternoon. QPF for today (12z Wed-00z Thu) should generally be less than 0.25", with locally 0.25-0.5" possible or far s-central/SE VA and NE NC. The wind will be NE 10-15 mph today inland, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along the coast. Overcast conditions and NE flow today will result in high temperatures in the lower 50s across the Piedmont, to the mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight as another strong low pressure system approaches from the west. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The upper low over the Mid-South lifts NE toward the central Appalachians tonight with surface low pressure developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. This will result in a warm front lifting N into the local area. By Thursday, The upper system and surface low lift N of the area, with a cold front sweeping through from the W during the afternoon. Rain is expected to become more widespread and heavier across the Piedmont by this evening and gradually become more showery, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. 50th percentile QPF from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 29/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.5-1.25" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for central VA, and less than 0.5" farther S. There is a little more spread in 90th percentile is up to 1.5" across the northern tier of the area. Overall, the flood threat is quite low with this system. The 10th percentile form both ensemble systems during this 24hr period is around 0.5-0.8" across the northern tier of the area (which largely missed out on the first system), so most of the area should receive a beneficial rainfall. Given that a warm front lifts through the area late tonight/Thursday morning, there will be a low level veering wind profile with some convective potential possible. Therefore, SPC has the area in a Day 1 and Day 2 marginal severe risk, but this is generally a few hours either side of 12z/8 AM Thursday. Low level-lapse rates are very poor so the threat is very minimal. Rapidly improving conditions are expected from SW-NE Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be steady this evening, then begin to rise overnight (especially toward the coast), and then reach highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday. The wind should become SE then S tonight into Thursday morning, and then shift to W with gusts to 20- 25 mph as the cold front moves through Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Southeast Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts well NE of the region. Mainly clear/sunny Thursday night into Friday with lows in the 40s followed by highs in the lower to mid 60s. A breezy westerly wind is expected Friday with gusts to 25-30 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect Saturday night. Another low pressure system may try to move through the area early next week but confidence is low at this time. High temperatures should generally be in the 60s early next week, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... 1033mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 06z and is ridging S into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure and a trailing front are located offshore of the Carolina coast. The wind is NE ~10kt inland and 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt near the coast. Cigs are primarily MVFR with areas of light rain across far SE VA and NE NC, and along the MD coast. MVFR cigs persist through this morning and into the aftn, with IFR cigs developing at RIC by this aftn. Light rain will gradually increase in coverage today as a warm front approaches from the S. Low pressure approaches from the SW tonight with the warm front lifting into the region. MVFR and IFR cigs are expected along with rain occasionally producing MVFR/IFR vsby. The wind will gradually become easterly later this aftn and evening and then SE by tonight, with gusts up to ~25 kt toward the coast. Showers and perhaps a tstm lift across the area Thursday morning as low pressure lifts NE of the region and pulls a cold front through. Conditions rapidly improve from SW-NE Thursday aftn. VFR conditions return Thursday night into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across most of the local waters through tonight due to elevated NE winds today becoming E tonight. - Gale Warnings have been issued for the northern coastal waters tonight due to E winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through tonight and into early Thursday given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-12 ft. - Another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory or low-end Gale conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday night due to elevated W winds behind a cold front. Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure continuing to move NE offshore with a strong ~1034mb area of high pressure across southern Quebec. Winds early this morning were generally NE 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. As the surface low moves farther offshore today, the pressure gradient slackens and winds gradually diminish to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (gusts up to 30 kt across the northern coastal waters). However, 00z guidance has come into better agreement on a secondary weak surface low forming off the Carolina coast today before lifting north across eastern NC this evening into tonight. This low will likely lift north along a warm front from another low in the Appalachian Mountains into early Thu morning, helping to tighten the pressure gradient once again late today into tonight. As a result, winds become E 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters and 25- 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters tonight. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts have increased to 50-70% across the coastal waters, 30-40% across the lower bay and 40-50% across the upper bay. Given the higher confidence (and greater chance for several hours of Gale gusts) across the northern coastal waters, have issued Gale Warnings for tonight. Have held off on Gale Warnings for the Ches Bay for now given uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of the 34 kt gusts tonight as there appears to be a relatively short window of ~3 hours (centered around 5z Thu) where gusts up to 34 kt are possible tonight. However, cannot rule out a short-fused Gale Warning (greatest chance across the upper bay) if model guidance today trends higher with the winds. Winds diminish and become SE Thu behind the warm front with a period of sub-SCA or low-end SCA conditions possible. Winds become SW and then W behind a cold front Thu evening into Thu night with another period of high end SCA to low-end Gales likely from late Thu into Fri night. Gale conditions are possible with this surge given strong CAA. However, will hold off on any potential Gale Watches for now given the current Gale Warnings already in effect. Wind probs remain generally low for now across the Ches Bay (<20 %) with higher probs across the coastal waters (50-70%). Winds diminish this weekend as high pressure builds in. Looking ahead, another period of elevated winds and seas is possible next week, however, confidence remains low. Waves were 3-5 ft (5-6 ft at the mouth of the bay) and seas were 8- 13 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) early this morning. Waves briefly subside today before becoming elevated again tonight. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated through Fri night (potentially into Sat). As such, High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the southern beaches through tonight and into Thu across the northern beaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 555 AM EDT Wednesday... Headlines remain in place through this morning`s high tide with widespread nuisance to minor coastal flooding expected. This morning`s high tide is the lowest high tide over the next couple of days for most locations given two ebb tides in a row. However, tidal anomalies are expected to rise to 2-3 ft above astro tide tonight through Thursday given strengthening easterly winds tonight, becoming southwest on Thursday. This will likely allow for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding across the Ches Bay and tidal rivers with minor flooding across the VA and MD beaches from this afternoon`s high tide through at least the Thursday afternoon high tide (Thursday night high tide across the middle and upper bay). Lewisetta and Bishops Head may even reach major flood stage on Thursday. As such, have upgraded Coastal Flood Watches to Coastal Flood Warnings across the upper bay where widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding is expected through the Thursday night high tide. Additionally, have upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning across the VA Eastern Shore beginning at noon today given the potential for moderate coastal flooding. Conditions are expected to improve by Friday with one more round of minor flooding possible across the eastern side of the bay given strong westerly winds. Given the prolonged period of NE winds, tidal gauges around the Currituck Sound have begun to show low water (around -1 feet MLLW). However, the drop in water levels here appears to have leveled out, and with diminishing winds today, expect the water levels to gradually rise above low water stage. As such, have held off on a Low Water Advisory for the Currituck Sound. However, if water levels continue to drop, a Low Water Advisory may be needed. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to midnight EDT Thursday night for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1250115 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 533 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Isolated showers will be possible with rain chances around 10%. -A cold front will usher in relatively cooler, drier, and breezy conditions through the end of the week. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all Florida Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 532 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 While ridging is across the Gulf and Hurricane Melissa is to our southeast we continue to be in a confluent zone resulting in the seen convection on KBYX and our overnight activity. On GOES-19 Satellite our waters remain mostly cloud free but outside of our coastal zones about 114 miles east of Key Largo an outer band of Melissa can be spotted, though is not expected to make it any closer to the island chain. Temperatures are near 80 with dew points in the mid 70s, making for a muggy morning. Across the Reef, winds are northerly at 10 to 15 knots. Throughout today, Melissa will continue to move farther northeast resulting in high pressure being pushed southeast closer the Keys from a cold front moving in. This front will freshen our breezes for the Keys and potentially needing a short fuse Small Craft Advisory headline late tonight or tomorrow morning. Once the front moves through our area, dry air will keep showers to a minimum for a few days making for a pleasant second half of the work week. && .MARINE... Issued at 532 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the Florida Keys remain in between features, as weak ridging builds in over the Gulf and Major Hurricane Melissa slowly treks north northeastward off of Jamaica and towards eastern Cuba. The result of this is light to gentle north breezes. A frontal boundary approaching the area will cause breezes to freshen, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by late tonight or Thursday morning for portions or all of the Keys marine zones. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Conditions will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR at both island terminals through the early morning and afternoon due to lower CIGs associated with VCSH. Near surface winds will be northerly near 10 knots with gusts in the afternoon near 20 knots. This may lead to crosswind concerns for smaller aircraft, but winds will back to the northeast during the later afternoon and early evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1892, the daily record low temperature of 59F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest temperature ever recorded in October, and is the earliest fall date on which a temperature below 60F has been recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1250113 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 447 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will result in cool temperatures through tomorrow night with widely scattered ocean-effect showers possible, mainly near and southeast of I-95. A strong low pressure system will bring a period of moderate-heavy windswept rain for southern New England later Thursday and Thursday night. Gradual drying early Friday morning followed by a period of gusty winds Friday into Saturday. Temperatures at or slightly below normal. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures continue with scattered ocean-effect showers mainly near/southeast I-95. Details... Another day of surface high pressure in southern New England with a surface high positioned over Quebec. This will support similar conditions to Tuesday as steady, cool northeast flow will keep a persistent cloud deck over the region today. Can`t rule out a few ocean-effect showers, mainly near/southeast of I-95. Moisture subtly increases over the region toward the afternoon, but any showers are more likely to be widely scattered in coverage with light accumulation if any. It will still remain breezy across east/southeast southern New England with gusts up to 20 mph in eastern MA and closer to 20-30 mph for the Cape/Islands. High temperatures will likely range in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s for the higher elevation spots of the interior. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * A system will bring a period of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds later Thursday and Thursday night. * Some isolated nuisance street flooding possible, exacerbated by abundance of fallen leaves. Details... Tonight: Overall quiet overnight period. Northeast winds/gusts gradually decrease into the early evening, slower to weaken in southeast MA. Moisture increases through the night as a plume of above normal (150-200%) advects in from the south overnight. This will deepen moisture through the night. Model guidance doesn`t indicate any substantial chances for showers, but can`t rule out a few showers especially by Thursday AM. Low temperatures drop into the mid-30s to low 40s for the interior and mid-40s for coastal/near-coastal areas. Thursday-Thursday Night: No major changes among ensemble/deterministic guidance in regards to a storm system that will bring a period of moderate to brief heavy rainfall across southern New England Thursday/Thursday night. Guidance still depicts a digging mid- level trough with an associated upper low becoming negatively tiled, lifting northward across the mid-Atlantic and into the eastern Great Lakes. An associated surface low should also deepen as it tracks northward. Although, the envelope of ensemble members show that there is still some uncertainty in the low track with also question in if there will be secondary low development. The incoming trough and accompanying upper jet will provide large-scale lift across the region with a plume of above normal moisture advecting into the region within the SW flow aloft. This will support widespread moderate rainfall across the region, potentially heavy at times. For timing, confidence is moderate as there is some variation among model guidance on exact timing. Most guidance has the main bulk of rain arriving in the mid afternoon to early evening Thursday timeframe. A few showers are possible during the day. Rain continues Thursday night with pockets of heavy rainfall possible. Ensembles show a range of most likely amounts from 0.75-2.0", with some higher members showing localized 2.5-3.0". The location of the heavier amounts will depend on the track of the low, with guidance highlight the Cape/Islands as more likely to receive amounts 1-2"+ amounts. Given the progressive nature of this system, flash flooding is not likely, although some localized nuisance flooding in poor drainage/low lying areas is possible. Fallen leaves this time of year may potentially exacerbate the nuisance flooding due to clogging of storm drains. It will be fairly breezy with east/northeast winds expected with gusts 20-35 mph, potentially up to 40 mph for the Cape/Islands. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Details... Key Messages... * Gusty winds develop Friday with gusts potentially up to 40 mph for higher terrain and coastal areas. Details... The dry slot associated with the system pushes into the region early Friday morning decreasing showers. Things won`t completely dry out as there will likely be wrap around moisture around the low shifting across the region Friday. It should stay mainly dry with only a pop up shower or two with the cold pool overhead. The biggest concern for impacts will be the gusty winds. The exiting deep low will supply a sufficient pressure differential/gradient across southern New England. A 45-55 kt LLJ positions across the region with cold advection which will help provide more efficient means of mixing down the stronger winds to the surface. Ensembles show potential for gusts 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and evening. This seems to match what model soundings show. The max gusts will be a matter of how deep we can mix and likely stemming from the strength of the cold advection. The east slope of the Berkshires will be favored for higher gusts with westerly component flow even providing downslope enhancements as well. Coastal areas such as the Cape may also be at risk for higher gusts 35-40 mph. Wind headlines may be needed Friday and/or Friday night. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit Saturday reducing the risk for strong winds/gusts; however, it will still be windy on Saturday. Winds become lighter Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes even further. Dry conditions are expected with temperatures slightly below normal with highs in the low to mid 50s. Weak mid-level ridging continues into early next week keeping conditions mainly dry. Confidence decreases in the pattern toward mid-week with regard to a weak system moving through sometime Tue/Wed bringing the next shot for showers. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Wednesday...High Confidence. MVFR ceilings and steady northeast winds 8-12 kts with gusts around 20 kts for BOS and stronger (20+kts) for the Cape and Islands. A few light showers may develop near the east coast, Cape, and Islands by early to mid afternoon. Gusts decrease in the late afternoon for BOS and gradually weaken for Cape/Islands in the evening. Wednesday Night... High Confidence. MVFR ceilings and steady northeast winds around 10 knots. Isolated brief shower/sprinkle possible for east/southeast terminals. Thursday...High Confidence. Moderate for exact timing of rain. MVFR ceilings with IFR developing as the rain arrives with an incoming system. Rain arrives generally from west to east Thursday afternoon/early evening continuing Thursday night. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Brief VFR possible with ceilings above 3000 feet at times, but MVFR ceilings from 2000-3000 feet should prevail for most of the TAF period. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Saturday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient relaxes relative to Tuesday night. This will gradually diminish northeast winds throughout the day. Despite declining wind speeds, we`re still expecting 20 to 30 knot northeast gusts throughout the day with ocean-effect showers possible. Seas gradually subside by a foot or two as well, but remain elevated between 5 and 9 feet over the outer marine zones. These conditions will persist through tomorrow night. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1250109 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 433 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 * The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect an elevated risk of excessive heat across the coastal and urban areas today and tomorrow. Thus, a Heat Advisory is in effect for today. * The north-facing beaches in PR, Culebra, and St Croix will have a high risk of Rip Currents today. * The greatest chance of rainfall arrives Saturday, as a tropical wave moves through, increasing the potential of moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms for the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 Relatively calm conditions prevailed overnight across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, observed under clear to partly cloudy skies. Early this morning, Doppler radar detected a few passing showers over portions of eastern Puerto Rico and Culebra; however, rainfall amounts were minimal. Overnight low temperatures ranged from the mid to upper 70s along coastal and urban areas, dropping to the upper 60s and low 70s along the central mountain range. Winds were generally light from the southeast, between 5 and 10 mph. Todays weather will continue to be influenced by the distant Hurricane Melissa, located well to the west-northwest (over Cuba), and a broad surface high-pressure system situated over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between these two features will maintain a light to moderate east-southeasterly wind flow, which will continue to bring patches of low-level moisture into the area. Despite this moisture, the presence of the high-pressure system is expected to limit shower activity across the region. The main focus for rain will be in the afternoon, with localized convective activity and showers possible over portions of central Puerto Rico due to the combination of daytime heating and local orographic effects. Looking ahead, the high-pressure system is forecast to strengthen and become the dominant feature from Thursday into Friday. This will cause the winds to shift, becoming southerly on Thursday and then south-southeasterly later in the day. Under this pattern, trade-wind showers are likely across the US Virgin Islands during the morning hours, while afternoon convective activity will be expected across the central and northern portions of Puerto Rico. This activity will result in a limited flooding risk. Elevated heat conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, driven by above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level. Maximum temperatures along the coastal and urban areas are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low 90s, whereas mountain areas will see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat indices are expected to be elevated, and Heat Advisories may become necessary for coastal and urban zones. Residents and visitors should plan to stay hydrated and protect themselves from prolonged sun exposure. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 A tropical wave is likely to move across the Lesser Antilles late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with its leading edge expected to reach the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico sometime between Saturday morning and afternoon. Current model guidance suggests an increasing probability of widespread shower activity, with a moderate to high chance (60-80%) of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Showers are expected to gradually increase through the day, most likely beginning over regional waters and windward areas, then spreading inland by mid-morning into the afternoon. Local effects, diurnal heating, and sea-breeze convergence could enhance rainfall intensity, raising the potential (40-60%) for periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds, particularly across Puerto Rico. The activity should move more quickly across the US Virgin Islands, limiting rainfall duration there. Tropical moisture associated with this wave is expected to diminish gradually late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. As it departs, the local area will likely transition to a more seasonal pattern, characterized by a mix of mostly clear skies and occasional passing showers (30-40% chance). From Sunday onward, isolated to scattered afternoon convection remains possible each day, driven primarily by local topography, diurnal heating, and sea-breeze interactions. This general pattern will likely dominate through the first half of next week, as a building high-pressure system over the region reduces atmospheric instability and lowers the overall probability of widespread thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 Mainly VFR conds expected across al terminals during the next 24 hrs. Occasional trade-wind SHRA will affect TIST/TISX resulting in VCSH aft 29/13Z. Afternoon convective activity may result in SHRA/TSRA, and brief VIS/CIGS reductions at times particularly near TJBQ/TJPS. Lgt/vrb winds thru 29/13Z, then becoming from the ESE at 1015 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 The region will continue under a southeasterly wind flow as Melissa moves from the Western Caribbean into the Western Atlantic through at least Thursday. Then, a frontal boundary will approach the region from the west, interacting with a surface high pressure anchored across the Central Atlantic around Friday, promoting the return of a moderate to locally fresh easterly wind flow. A tropical wave will move near the northeast Caribbean and the local waters around Saturday, increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 A long period northeasterly swell with periods between 12 and 16 seconds is reaching San Juan Buoy. This swell will result in a high risk of rip currents along PR, Culebra and St Croix`s north and east-facing beaches through this evening. Thus, a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for these areas. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1250108 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches from the west today as high pressure remains anchored to the north. This area of low pressure tracks northeast along the Appalachians tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy and cool today with light rain developing. Remaining breezy along the coast. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, with another upper low over southern MO/northern AR. At the surface, 1033mb high pressure is centered over central QB and extends to the S into the Mid-Atlantic region. The low pressure system from yesterday has moved well E of the Mid- Atlantic coast, with a trailing front off the Southeast coast. Overcast early this morning with a NE wind persisting, and gusting to 20-25 mph along the coast. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There are some areas of light rain and drizzle across far SE VA and NE NC as well as in vicinity of the MD coast. The upper low to the SW pushes E into the Mid-South today as the other upper low pivots to the NW. Meanwhile, there is decent model consensus for a surface low to develop along the boundary off the Southeast coast. This low then lifts N with light rain developing along its northern flank across the local area this afternoon. QPF for today (12z Wed-00z Thu) should generally be less than 0.25", with locally 0.25-0.5" possible or far s-central/SE VA and NE NC. The wind will be NE 10-15 mph today inland, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along the coast. Overcast conditions and NE flow today will result in high temperatures in the lower 50s across the Piedmont, to the mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight as another strong low pressure system approaches from the west. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The upper low over the Mid-South lifts NE toward the central Appalachians tonight with surface low pressure developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. This will result in a warm front lifting N into the local area. By Thursday, The upper system and surface low lift N of the area, with a cold front sweeping through from the W during the afternoon. Rain is expected to become more widespread and heavier across the Piedmont by this evening and gradually become more showery, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. 50th percentile QPF from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 29/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.5-1.25" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for central VA, and less than 0.5" farther S. There is a little more spread in 90th percentile is up to 1.5" across the northern tier of the area. Overall, the flood threat is quite low with this system. The 10th percentile form both ensemble systems during this 24hr period is around 0.5-0.8" across the northern tier of the area (which largely missed out on the first system), so most of the area should receive a beneficial rainfall. Given that a warm front lifts through the area late tonight/Thursday morning, there will be a low level veering wind profile with some convective potential possible. Therefore, SPC has the area in a Day 1 and Day 2 marginal severe risk, but this is generally a few hours either side of 12z/8 AM Thursday. Low level-lapse rates are very poor so the threat is very minimal. Rapidly improving conditions are expected from SW-NE Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be steady this evening, then begin to rise overnight (especially toward the coast), and then reach highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday. The wind should become SE then S tonight into Thursday morning, and then shift to W with gusts to 20- 25 mph as the cold front moves through Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Southeast Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts well NE of the region. Mainly clear/sunny Thursday night into Friday with lows in the 40s followed by highs in the lower to mid 60s. A breezy westerly wind is expected Friday with gusts to 25-30 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect Saturday night. Another low pressure system may try to move through the area early next week but confidence is low at this time. High temperatures should generally be in the 60s early next week, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... 1033mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 06z and is ridging S into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure and a trailing front are located offshore of the Carolina coast. The wind is NE ~10kt inland and 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt near the coast. Cigs are primarily MVFR with areas of light rain across far SE VA and NE NC, and along the MD coast. MVFR cigs persist through this morning and into the aftn, with IFR cigs developing at RIC by this aftn. Light rain will gradually increase in coverage today as a warm front approaches from the S. Low pressure approaches from the SW tonight with the warm front lifting into the region. MVFR and IFR cigs are expected along with rain occasionally producing MVFR/IFR vsby. The wind will gradually become easterly later this aftn and evening and then SE by tonight, with gusts up to ~25 kt toward the coast. Showers and perhaps a tstm lift across the area Thursday morning as low pressure lifts NE of the region and pulls a cold front through. Conditions rapidly improve from SW-NE Thursday aftn. VFR conditions return Thursday night into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across most of the local waters through tonight due to elevated NE winds today becoming E tonight. - Gale Warnings have been issued for the northern coastal waters tonight due to E winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through tonight and into early Thursday given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-12 ft. - Another period of high-end Small Craft Advisory or low-end Gale conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday night due to elevated W winds behind a cold front. Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure continuing to move NE offshore with a strong ~1034mb area of high pressure across southern Quebec. Winds early this morning were generally NE 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. As the surface low moves farther offshore today, the pressure gradient slackens and winds gradually diminish to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (gusts up to 30 kt across the northern coastal waters). However, 00z guidance has come into better agreement on a secondary weak surface low forming off the Carolina coast today before lifting north across eastern NC this evening into tonight. This low will likely lift north along a warm front from another low in the Appalachian Mountains into early Thu morning, helping to tighten the pressure gradient once again late today into tonight. As a result, winds become E 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters and 25- 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters tonight. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts have increased to 50-70% across the coastal waters, 30-40% across the lower bay and 40-50% across the upper bay. Given the higher confidence (and greater chance for several hours of Gale gusts) across the northern coastal waters, have issued Gale Warnings for tonight. Have held off on Gale Warnings for the Ches Bay for now given uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of the 34 kt gusts tonight as there appears to be a relatively short window of ~3 hours (centered around 5z Thu) where gusts up to 34 kt are possible tonight. However, cannot rule out a short-fused Gale Warning (greatest chance across the upper bay) if model guidance today trends higher with the winds. Winds diminish and become SE Thu behind the warm front with a period of sub-SCA or low-end SCA conditions possible. Winds become SW and then W behind a cold front Thu evening into Thu night with another period of high end SCA to low-end Gales likely from late Thu into Fri night. Gale conditions are possible with this surge given strong CAA. However, will hold off on any potential Gale Watches for now given the current Gale Warnings already in effect. Wind probs remain generally low for now across the Ches Bay (<20 %) with higher probs across the coastal waters (50-70%). Winds diminish this weekend as high pressure builds in. Looking ahead, another period of elevated winds and seas is possible next week, however, confidence remains low. Waves were 3-5 ft (5-6 ft at the mouth of the bay) and seas were 8- 13 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) early this morning. Waves briefly subside today before becoming elevated again tonight. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated through Fri night (potentially into Sat). As such, High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the southern beaches through tonight and into Thu across the northern beaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday... Widespread minor to locally moderate flooding occurred this afternoon due to the persistent and strong NE winds pushing tidal anomalies to 1.5-2.5 ft above normal across the Jame river. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect here. Farther north, the higher high tide has passed, so the Warning along the Rappahannock has been replaced with an Advisory for the Wed morning high tide. The higher tidal anomalies begin to shift into the upper bay by the middle-later portions of the week, with increasing confidence in southerly flow by Thursday. This would likely yield moderate to locally major flooding at most gauges north of Windmill Point, which could continue into Friday for the Bay-side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore as the wind becomes westerly behind a cold front. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Additionally, the MD Atlantic shore should see minor flooding starting Wednesday afternoon and possibly again Wednesday night; a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to cover this potential here. Water levels should fall rather quickly late in the week into the weekend as winds turn offshore and decrease. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1250107 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 349 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... While the prior coastal low shifts further offshore, coastal impacts, periods of light to moderate rainfall, and hazardous marine conditions will continue today. A frontal system will push through the area on Thursday with drier high pressure building in late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - NE winds continue decreasing as coastal low moves further away - Secondary weak coastal low brings rain, a wind shift, and a threat of waterspouts near OBX - Minor soundside flooding and minor to moderate oceanside flooding and ocean overwash expected (see Coastal Flooding section) Low pressure which brought us our gusty winds yesterday is now well offshore, with winds having subsided quite a bit this morning. A weak low should form this morning offshore of Cape Fear, reaching our coastline by late morning into the afternoon. Impacts will be low with this weak low, just bringing some rain and shifting winds from N/NE to S/SE. Lack of a strong pressure gradient keeps winds below any impact criteria later this morning. On the rainfall side, some moderate rainfall can be expected for OBX as the weak coastal low approaches with lighter rainfall persisting for the remainder of the CWA as another dreary overcast and rainy day is in store. Something of note, we do have pretty substantial low level helicities in the upper right quadrant of the coastal low, bringing a threat of waterspouts that can reach the shore of OBX and northern Pamlico Sound communities today. See COASTAL FLOODING section for coastal flooding threats. Cloudy, rainy conditions today keep highs near 60 inland, near 70 for OBX where coastal low bring some southerly flow and warmer air. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday.. Surface low near Tennessee tracks NE`wards into the Mid- Atlantic and eventually the Northeast tonight into tomorrow with associated warm front lifting north across ENC tonight with winds becoming southerly behind it. This will likely put us in the warm sector briefly Thursday morning. However, given the lack of residence time instability only builds to about 500 J/kg max, though with widespread deep layer shear a few stronger storms wont be out of the question late tonight with the N`ward moving warm front. For now an isolated stronger wind gust (40-60 mph) would be the main concern, though a few waterspouts pushing inland near the N`ward lifting warm front tonight certainly isn`t out of the question given favorable low level shear profiles. Yet another cloudy night with light southerly winds keeps low temps moderated, upper 50s inland and mid 60s for OBX. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wed... Key Messages: - A cold front is forecast push across ENC on Thursday bringing period of rain, a low end chance of stronger thunderstorms, and potential for minor coastal flooding impacts behind this front -Fair but cooler weather expected this weekend Thurs...Negatively tilted upper trough will be tracking NE`wards into the Interior Northeast on Thurs while Jet streak over the region will push offshore. Mid level shortwave will be making its way across the Mid-Atlantic as well, while at the surface, low pressure system in the Northeast will continue NE`wards while its associated cold front quickly sweeps E`wards across ENC Thurs morning, pushing offshore by Thurs afternoon with high pressure building in behind the departing front. Out ahead of the front S`rly flow will continue to advect moisture and some instability out ahead of the front with MUCAPES noted around 500 J/kg Thurs morning across portions of ENC mainly east of Hwy 17. At the same time widespread deep layer shear of 50-70 kts and 0-1 km layer shear around 20-25 kts will also be noted. Combined with the stronger forcing from the surface front and favorable upper level pattern, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be noted out ahead of the front with a few isolated storms becoming strong in nature given the somewhat favorable environment. While lower instability values will likely limit lightning threat Thurs morning, ample shear should create an opportunity for some isolated stronger wind gusts (40-60 mph) and maybe a brief waterspout within the strongest storms along and out ahead of this front Thurs morning. By mid afternoon expect any precip chances to end across ENC as aforementioned front quickly pushes offshore with skies rapidly clearing behind the front and a steady W`rly wind noted behind the front. Highs get into the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Westerly winds Thursday will be on the increase Thurs night but will be weaker compared to previous days. This will bring a lesser threat for coastal flooding across the sounds but elevated waters levels will likely remain overnight Thurs soundside across the more vulnerable locations. With elevated swell remaining in place, another limited coastal flooding threat along vulnerable OBX beaches is possible as large waves continue offshore. Fri through Sun...A brief zonal pattern will be in place across the Eastern Seaboard over this weekend as a positively tilted trough begins to move across the Plains Fri/Sat. This trough will bring our next forecast challenge later in the long term as model guidance continues to remain spread on the eventual evolution of this trough. However, recent trends suggest this trough will cut off into a closed low in the Deep South Sat/Sun and near the Southeast early next week. This is supported by the GFS/ECWMF and AI guidance with the Canadian being the outlier and more progressive with the trough. Either way, any impacts from this trough likely wouldn`t be felt until next week given latest guidance. At the surface high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic bringing lighter W`rly winds by Fri night as well as clear skies this weekend. During the days highs get into the 60s and with light winds and clear skies expected each night, went towards the lower end of guidance Fri/Sat night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and 40s to 50s along the OBX. Mon through mid week next week....All eyes will be on the eventual evolution of the closed low in the Deep South, latest trends suggest this upper low gradually pushes across the Southeast Mon night through Tue, then pushing off the coast by midweek. At the surface this could promote cyclogenesis in the Southeast either in Georgia or just off the coast with this low then tracking NE`wards. This low would bring the potential for more unsettled conditions to the area Mon night into Tue. However, given uncertainty in exact evolution in the upper level pattern surface low impacts remain unknown at this time. For now, its something to keep an eye on. Temps remain about avg to slightly below avg next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...Widespread light rain and IFR cigs (600-900 ft) are expected to persist through morning hours. As we get into the afternoon, brief rises to MVFR are possible, but I could also see a scenario where we remain IFR through the day. Tonight, warm front lifts through the region bringing additional moderate rainfall and continued IFR to potentially LIFR conditions. Winds start off N/NE this morning, becoming S/SE this evening and tonight behind the warm front. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Adverse flying conditions expected Thursday morning as low pressure and its associated fronts impact the region. Sub-VFR conditions will continue as a cold front will track across ENC Thurs morning/afternoon once again bringing another round of showers and storms and some breezy S`rly winds. Winds do shift to a W`rly direction behind the front and will be on the increase with gusts up around 15 to 25 mph Thurs night into Fri before winds ease Fri night. However, behind the front VFR conditions return to ENC after days of sub-VFR conditions. Mainly VFR conditions then forecast through this weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - N/NE Winds lessening as pressure gradient relaxes - High, treacherous seas linger despite the decreased winds - Winds shift to the south this evening and tonight Gale warnings have been dropped, replaced with Small Craft Advisories for coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. Other sounds/rivers are seeing winds below 25 kts, so they are now headline free. Guidance and observations continue to suggest that a secondary, weaker area of low pressure will linger south of Cape Lookout this morning before meandering northward towards the OBX later today. High- res guidance suggests that this will allow the coastal trough axis to pivot closer ashore, which may allow gusts to SCA levels to persist (or ramp back up after a brief reprieve) along coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound today. This may also lead to some variation in wind direction, with northeasterly winds west of the trough axis and east/southeasterly winds east of the trough axis. Buoy obs currently shows waves 10-15 ft at 11-13 seconds across the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout, with waves 8-10 ft reported at the Onslow Bay buoy. Waves will be slow to subside, remaining dangerous through the short term. By tomorrow morning, they should be 6-10 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet, 4-8 ft south of Ocracoke Inlet. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Poor boating conditions continue across our waters into this weekend as a cold front tracks across the region Thurs -While winds ease this weekend seas along our coastal waters remain elevated into Sat promoting SCA`s into this weekend. Cold front will be nearing our coastal waters Thurs morning promoting 5-15 kt S`rly winds and 20 kt gusts as well as scattered showers and storms across our waters. Strongest storms could bring a localized threat for damaging winds and a brief water spout. With the weaker winds sub SCA conditions will be noted across the inland waters but with seas around 6-10 ft north of Cape Lookout and 3-7 ft south of Cape Lookout, coastal waters will have ongoing SCA`s in place. Front will push offshore by Thurs afternoon with high pressure building in behind it. This will shift winds to a W`rly direction, but increase them Thurs night into Fri to 20-30 kts once again bringing SCA conditions to just about all our waters. Winds finally ease Fri evening to 5-15 kts as high pressure builds overhead lessening the pressure gradient. However, with seas remaining above 6 ft along our coastal waters SCA`s will remain here until at least Sat morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Not much change to the forecast. While winds continue to ease, dangerous surf will continue to bring a threat for ocean overwash and minor to moderate, locally significant coastal flooding oceanside from Duck down to Ocracoke. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks through 8PM tonight for the potential for minor impacts (1-2 ft above ground level). While the ongoing Coastal Flood warning remains in effect from Oregon Inlet down to Ocracoke Island until 8PM tonight for the potential for moderate to locally significant impacts (2-3 ft above ground level, with locally higher amounts up to 4 ft possible). Given elevated surf will continue into Thursday wont be surprised if this coastal flood warning gets replaced by an advisory tonight. Further south, a Coastal Flood advisory remains in effect until 11AM across areas surrounding the inland rivers and southern Pamlico Sound for the potential of 1-2 ft of inundation. A low pressure system and its associated cold front is progged to push across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance continues to depict an inland track for this low. This will cause 15- 25 kt winds to veer from southeasterly to southerly Wednesday night and southwesterly through Thursday. Winds speeds are not high enough to bring much in the way of coastal flooding concerns across the sounds with the second low pressure system but we may see some minor seiching across northern as eastern shores as the wind shifts directions. However, large waves on the order of 8-12 feet will likely continue to bring ocean overwash concerns along vulnerable portions of the OBX. In addition, Hurricane Melissa is forecast to pass well offshore late this week and we could see large swells continue to impact the beaches late week and next weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ080- 094-194-196. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ196. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ203>205. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ |
| #1250106 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 356 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Isolated showers along the east coast today. - Poor marine and beach conditions tonight through Thursday night. - First prolonged taste of fall-like weather arrives on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Satellite and model analysis depict the upper-level pattern characterized by a large central/eastern CONUS trough, with shortwaves off the NE coast, over the eastern Great Lakes, and across the MS Valley up through the Plains. A 06z subjective surface analysis places a quasi-stationary surface boundary across far south Florida this morning. As the associated surface low is moving north through the NW Atlantic, and a narrow ridge axis extends down the Eastern Seaboard, the mostly NErly flow will both prevent the front from completely clearing the area as it decays and also keep a low-level maritime influence under the deep-layer dry air aloft. This will result in isolated to scattered showers along the coastal interface/decaying front through today. In general, however, rain chances will remain low (~20-40%) across the east coast. The frontal system exiting the MS Valley and moving into the TN Valley this morning, will begin occluding as it moves through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast through the period. The shortwave associated with this system will amplify the eastern CONUS trough enough to advect lower heights and cooler upper-level temperatures across Florida on Thursday. At the surface, the ridging in the wake of the front will give us a long enough period of northerly flow to clear the front through Florida, and bring a drier, more continental airmass down the state. As the front moves through South Florida tonight through tomorrow morning, the deep-layer dry air will preclude thunderstorm development, but enough low-level moisture will be present that could allow a few showers to persist immediately along the front. While we await the core of the cooler air today, highs will be able to creep into the mid to upper 80s, and with the aforementioned low level moisture, heat indices will remain in the 90s once again. Lows tonight may be a couple degrees cooler than this morning, but it won`t be until Thursday night that we start to feel the more fall-like nights. Cooler temps aloft and drier conditions will result in a pleasant afternoon on Thursday with highs peaking in the low 80s across the southern half of south Florida, and likely not reaching 80 to the north. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Thursday night through the weekend will feature cool nights and seasonable afternoons. Thursday night and Friday night will be the coolest nights with lows falling into the low 50s in the Lake Region, and up to the low 60s along the coasts. Temperatures will begin to moderate Saturday night into Sunday as maritime flow becomes established again along the southern edge of the surface ridge. No rain is expected through the weekend. Models diverge heading into next week regarding the evolution of the next frontal system. Specifically, they differ in just how progressive the eastern CONUS trough pattern is and also whether a central CONUS shortwave is able to cutoff and drift into the Deep South. These differences will have an impact on where a surface low develops, how strong it will be, and what kind of impacts we receive locally. For now it looks like the majority of the ensemble members avoid the cutoff scenario and instead bring a less dynamic frontal system through the region early next week. This more likely scenario would result in less overall rain impacts, but bring a return to milder and more moist conditions earlier. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 VCSH has been introduced from FXE through MIA for much of the TAF. Showers will be isolated to scattered in nature and either offshore or just on the coast with low predictability. Brief periods of MVFR can be expected in showers that impact the terminal, but due to the sporadic nature of the restriction, did not include in the TAF. As the next front moves through overnight, showers will be coming to an end, however, APF has the best shot at experiencing a few showers before they completely dissipate. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A gentle breeze will continue through Wednesday in the wake of a frontal boundary, but is expected to increase through moderate to a fresh breeze as a stronger front approaches and Melissa moves NE through the western Atlantic on Thursday. A 2-4 foot northerly swell will spread south across the Gulf stream today, with seas increasing further tonight into Thursday to about 5-7 feet across both the Gulf and Atlantic. Winds and seas will quickly subside through the day on Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Increased onshore flow along Gulf beaches and increased surf from northerly swell in the Atlantic will result in a high rip current risk along both coasts starting tonight and lasting through Thursday night. Conditions will improve through the day on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 69 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 West Kendall 87 67 82 61 / 20 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 87 69 82 61 / 20 10 0 0 Homestead 86 68 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 68 80 61 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 68 79 61 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 88 69 83 62 / 20 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 84 67 78 59 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 86 67 81 60 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 84 70 79 61 / 0 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ069-168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ |
| #1250105 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 358 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Another front pushing through tonight will reinforce cool and dry conditions. A few showers along the front can`t be ruled out. - Beach and marine conditions become poor to hazardous again as long period swell arrives at the beaches, and wind and seas over the Atlantic waters increase. - Friday evening temperatures forecast to drop into the 60s and 50s for Halloween. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Today-Tonight...Very dry air with PWATs less than 1" continues to filter in from the north as weak high pressure shifts over Florida from the Gulf. A deep and energetic trough diving down the Central US and into the Southeast will push a reinforcing cold front quickly across the area tonight. With virtually no moisture recovery ahead of the front the only moisture available for any rain chances are limited to a narrow band in the low-levels right along the frontal boundary. Therefore, dry conditions expected through the daytime hours, then a low (around 20%) chance of brief showers with the frontal passage overnight. The environment looks to be well capped, and chances for lightning are effectively zero. However, given how quickly the line will be moving through any showers than manage to form could be gusty. Light northerly winds this morning shift southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon, then northwesterly around 10 mph tonight behind the front. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal in the U70s-L80s. There is a High risk of life-threatening rip currents at the beaches due to the arrival of long period swell. Entering the surf is not advised. Thursday-Friday...Starting off cool Thursday morning behind the overnight frontal passage, with morning lows in the M50s-M60s, possibly in the L50s in the usually cooler northern spots. Could still be a few showers along the Treasure Coast in the morning but these will quickly push offshore. High pressure and even drier air then builds over the Southeast behind the front. Westerly winds increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph Thursday afternoon behind the front, which might be able to bring some shallow showers whipped up over the Gulf into the interior portions of East Central Florida (rain chances currently less than 20%), but otherwise dry conditions. Winds become more gentle from the north to northwest Friday. Afternoon highs Thursday decrease to the L-M70s, with a chilly Friday morning expected as morning lows get down in the L50-U40s thanks to a slug of cooler air. Afternoon highs Friday only get up to the L70s (possibly some U60s), with evening temperatures forecast to drop into the 60s after 5 PM, and into the 50s after 8 PM, making for the most Halloween feeling Halloween we`ve seen in a few years. Saturday-Tuesday...While mid-upper level troughing is forecast to be maintained over the eastern US through the weekend and early next week, models have been inconsistent with the evolution of lobes of upper-level energy moving through the pattern. Pretty good agreement a mid-level low diving through the Central US will stall over the southern US, but whether it becomes cutoff or not has changed model to model and run to run. This morning`s 00Z GFS and ECM run both bring the feature to the North Gulf coast early next week, but the GFS aggressively kicks the system eastward Tuesday, while the ECM keeps it in our neighborhood an additional day. And this is technically better agreement than the 18Z runs, where the ECM orphaned the system in the western Gulf while the GFS tracked across the north Gulf states. This impacts the evolution of an associated surface low over the Southeast, and locally how much rain we may get. The sooner and closer to the Southeast seaboard the low develops the more likely we`ll have lower (if any) rain chances. However, there is potential for this system to lift moisture associated with the departed Tropical Cyclone Melissa into the area if it were to develop further west, later, and slower. Given at least some solutions call for rainfall but also the high degree of uncertainty, went with a 20% chance in the official forecast for Monday and Tuesday to mention the potential, and less than 20% the rest of the period. Temperatures recover a bit, but forecast to remain slightly below normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Weak high pressure briefly builds into the local Atlantic waters today. A reinforcing cold front pushing through tonight followed by deeper high pressure Thursday will cause winds and seas to increase again. Winds and seas settle going towards the weekend as the high pressure center moves closer to Florida and the local waters, with better boating conditions expected by the weekend. Seas begin to build in the Gulf Stream again today as swell from low pressure system associated with the previous front arrives, reaching 5-7 ft north of the Cape late this morning, and south of the Cape later this evening. Winds generally light and squirrelly today ahead of the approaching front, becoming northwest 15-20 kts behind the front tonight and Thursday, shifting more westerly Thursday afternoon. Seas peak 5-8 ft Thursday afternoon. Winds settle to 5-15 kts through the rest of the week and weekend as the center of the high moves closer, gradually veering from northwesterly Friday to easterly Sunday. Seas subside to 4-7 ft Friday, and 2-4 ft Saturday and Sunday. A few showers are possible along the front tonight, otherwise generally dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Stratus producing IFR/MVFR cigs from KLEE to KDAB may be able to expand a little farther south through KSFB/KMCO/KISM overnight and linger through early morning. Any stratus near to NW of the I-4 corridor should then gradually break up mid to late morning, with VFR conditions expected late morning into the afternoon. From KTIX southward VFR conditions are forecast to prevail tonight through tomorrow. Conditions will remain dry through much of today into tonight, but may see a thin band of showers along the next approaching strong cold front approach northern TAF sites late this evening. Have included VCSH from 3Z at KLEE and 5Z toward I-4 corridor. N/NW winds around 5-7 knots will become SW 6-8 knots into tomorrow afternoon ahead of the approaching front. May see sea breeze form switching winds to the E/NE at the coast, especially from KMLB southward near to after 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 56 73 49 / 0 20 0 0 MCO 81 58 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 MLB 81 61 75 53 / 0 20 10 0 VRB 82 62 76 53 / 10 20 10 0 LEE 79 56 73 48 / 10 20 10 0 SFB 81 57 73 50 / 0 20 10 0 ORL 81 59 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 FPR 82 62 76 53 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1250104 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 * The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect an elevated risk of excessive heat across the coastal and urban areas today and tomorrow. Thus, a Heat Advisory is in effect for today. * The north-facing beaches in PR, Culebra, and St Croix will have a high risk of Rip Currents today. * The greatest chance of rainfall arrives Saturday, as a tropical wave moves through, increasing the potential of moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms for the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 Relatively calm conditions prevailed overnight across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, observed under clear to partly cloudy skies. Early this morning, Doppler radar detected a few passing showers over portions of eastern Puerto Rico and Culebra; however, rainfall amounts were minimal. Overnight low temperatures ranged from the mid to upper 70s along coastal and urban areas, dropping to the upper 60s and low 70s along the central mountain range. Winds were generally light from the southeast, between 5 and 10 mph. Todays weather will continue to be influenced by the distant Hurricane Melissa, located well to the west-northwest (over Cuba), and a broad surface high-pressure system situated over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between these two features will maintain a light to moderate east-southeasterly wind flow, which will continue to bring patches of low-level moisture into the area. Despite this moisture, the presence of the high-pressure system is expected to limit shower activity across the region. The main focus for rain will be in the afternoon, with localized convective activity and showers possible over portions of central Puerto Rico due to the combination of daytime heating and local orographic effects. Looking ahead, the high-pressure system is forecast to strengthen and become the dominant feature from Thursday into Friday. This will cause the winds to shift, becoming southerly on Thursday and then south-southeasterly later in the day. Under this pattern, trade-wind showers are likely across the US Virgin Islands during the morning hours, while afternoon convective activity will be expected across the central and northern portions of Puerto Rico. This activity will result in a limited flooding risk. Elevated heat conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, driven by above-normal temperatures at the 925 mb level. Maximum temperatures along the coastal and urban areas are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low 90s, whereas mountain areas will see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat indices are expected to be elevated, and Heat Advisories may become necessary for coastal and urban zones. Residents and visitors should plan to stay hydrated and protect themselves from prolonged sun exposure. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 A tropical wave is likely to move across the Lesser Antilles late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with its leading edge expected to reach the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico sometime between Saturday morning and afternoon. Current model guidance suggests an increasing probability of widespread shower activity, with a moderate to high chance (6080%) of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Showers are expected to gradually increase through the day, most likely beginning over regional waters and windward areas, then spreading inland by mid-morning into the afternoon. Local effects, diurnal heating, and sea-breeze convergence could enhance rainfall intensity, raising the potential (4060%) for periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds, particularly across Puerto Rico. The activity should move more quickly across the US Virgin Islands, limiting rainfall duration there. Tropical moisture associated with this wave is expected to diminish gradually late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. As it departs, the local area will likely transition to a more seasonal pattern, characterized by a mix of mostly clear skies and occasional passing showers (3040% chance). From Sunday onward, isolated to scattered afternoon convection remains possible each day, driven primarily by local topography, diurnal heating, and sea-breeze interactions. This general pattern will likely dominate through the first half of next week, as a building high-pressure system over the region reduces atmospheric instability and lowers the overall probability of widespread thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 Mainly VFR conds expected across al terminals during the next 24 hrs. Occasional trade-wind SHRA will affect TIST/TISX resulting in VCSH aft 29/13Z. Afternoon convective activity may result in SHRA/TSRA, and brief VIS/CIGS reductions at times particularly near TJBQ/TJPS. Lgt/vrb winds thru 29/13Z, then becoming from the ESE at 1015 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 The region will continue under a southeasterly wind flow as Melissa moves from the Western Caribbean into the Western Atlantic through at least Thursday. Then, a frontal boundary will approach the region from the west, interacting with a surface high pressure anchored across the Central Atlantic around Friday, promoting the return of a moderate to locally fresh easterly wind flow. A tropical wave will move near the northeast Caribbean and the local waters around Saturday, increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 349 AM AST Wed Oct 29 2025 A long period northeasterly swell with periods between 12 and 16 seconds is reaching San Juan Buoy. This swell will result in a high risk of rip currents along PR, Culebra and St Croix`s north and east-facing beaches through this evening. Thus, a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for these areas. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1250103 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 342 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches from the west today as high pressure remains anchored to the north. This area of low pressure tracks northeast along the Appalachians tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy and cool today with light rain developing. Remaining breezy along the coast. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes, with another upper low over southern MO/northern AR. At the surface, 1033mb high pressure is centered over central QB and extends to the S into the Mid-Atlantic region. The low pressure system from yesterday has moved well E of the Mid- Atlantic coast, with a trailing front off the Southeast coast. Overcast early this morning with a NE wind persisting, and gusting to 20-25 mph along the coast. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There are some areas of light rain and drizzle across far SE VA and NE NC as well as in vicinity of the MD coast. The upper low to the SW pushes E into the Mid-South today as the other upper low pivots to the NW. Meanwhile, there is decent model consensus for a surface low to develop along the boundary off the Southeast coast. This low then lifts N with light rain developing along its northern flank across the local area this afternoon. QPF for today (12z Wed-00z Thu) should generally be less than 0.25", with locally 0.25-0.5" possible or far s-central/SE VA and NE NC. The wind will be NE 10-15 mph today inland, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along the coast. Overcast conditions and NE flow today will result in high temperatures in the lower 50s across the Piedmont, to the mid 50s for the I-95 corridor, to the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight as another strong low pressure system approaches from the west. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The upper low over the Mid-South lifts NE toward the central Appalachians tonight with surface low pressure developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge. This will result in a warm front lifting N into the local area. By Thursday, The upper system and surface low lift N of the area, with a cold front sweeping through from the W during the afternoon. Rain is expected to become more widespread and heavier across the Piedmont by this evening and gradually become more showery, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. 50th percentile QPF from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 29/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.5-1.25" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for central VA, and less than 0.5" farther S. There is a little more spread in 90th percentile is up to 1.5" across the northern tier of the area. Overall, the flood threat is quite low with this system. The 10th percentile form both ensemble systems during this 24hr period is around 0.5-0.8" across the northern tier of the area (which largely missed out on the first system), so most of the area should receive a beneficial rainfall. Given that a warm front lifts through the area late tonight/Thursday morning, there will be a low level veering wind profile with some convective potential possible. Therefore, SPC has the area in a Day 1 and Day 2 marginal severe risk, but this is generally a few hours either side of 12z/8 AM Thursday. Low level-lapse rates are very poor so the threat is very minimal. Rapidly improving conditions are expected from SW-NE Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be steady this evening, then begin to rise overnight (especially toward the coast), and then reach highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday. The wind should become SE then S tonight into Thursday morning, and then shift to W with gusts to 20- 25 mph as the cold front moves through Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Southeast Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts well NE of the region. Mainly clear/sunny Thursday night into Friday with lows in the 40s followed by highs in the lower to mid 60s. A breezy westerly wind is expected Friday with gusts to 25-30 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect Saturday night. Another low pressure system may try to move through the area early next week but confidence is low at this time. High temperatures should generally be in the 60s early next week, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... 1033mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 06z and is ridging S into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure and a trailing front are located offshore of the Carolina coast. The wind is NE ~10kt inland and 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt near the coast. Cigs are primarily MVFR with areas of light rain across far SE VA and NE NC, and along the MD coast. MVFR cigs persist through this morning and into the aftn, with IFR cigs developing at RIC by this aftn. Light rain will gradually increase in coverage today as a warm front approaches from the S. Low pressure approaches from the SW tonight with the warm front lifting into the region. MVFR and IFR cigs are expected along with rain occasionally producing MVFR/IFR vsby. The wind will gradually become easterly later this aftn and evening and then SE by tonight, with gusts up to ~25 kt toward the coast. Showers and perhaps a tstm lift across the area Thursday morning as low pressure lifts NE of the region and pulls a cold front through. Conditions rapidly improve from SW-NE Thursday aftn. VFR conditions return Thursday night into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remain in effect tonight for the coastal waters and Currituck sound, with SCAs in effect elsewhere. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect into Wed night given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-14 ft (highest S). Offshore seas remain in the 10-15 ft range. - Low pressure and a cold front impact the area late in the week, bringing continued unsettled conditions. ~1000 mb low pressure is moving northeast out to sea well offshore of the NC Outer Banks this evening. Well to our N, strong high pressure remains settled over Quebec. The pressure gradient between these two features is leading to strong NE flow, with widespread Gale conditions experienced today. Per the latest observations, winds have decreased a bit more since the aftn, so now have cancelled all Gale warnings in the Bay/lower James, while maintaining them on the Ocean and Currituck sound. Also trimmed the end of the warnings by a few hours given the latest trends in model guidance. Gale Warnings will need to be replaced with SCAs tonight through most of Thursday due to lingering winds and seas. Unsettled marine conditions continue through late week as a secondary trough approaches from the west Wednesday, allowing another surface low to track NE across the Mid Atlantic region on Thu. NE winds gradually diminish to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Wed, becoming E Wed night, then becoming SE early Thu behind a warm front lifting north. As the low tracks nearby, expect a lull in winds Thursday (potentially sub-SCA), but confidence is lower during this period. Additionally, a line of low-topped showers (with isolated storms) could track through the waters and bring locally higher winds in the very early morning hours of Thursday. Winds become SW/W behind the cold front Thu night into Fri. The dry/cool air moving behind the deepening low should result in another period of strong SCA to low-end Gale conditions from late Thursday night into Friday. Conditions improve significantly by the weekend with sub-SCA conditions expected (outside of any lingering elevated seas Sat). Waves of 5-8 ft persist in the lower and mouth of the bay this evening into tonight, with 9-14 ft seas on the coastal waters (highest S). A High Surf Advisory remains in effect across all of the Atlantic coastline through Wed night. Seas slowly subside Thursday, but may increase again Friday with the increased W winds. However, the offshore wind direction should prevent the seas from getting much higher than 6-8 ft. Seas may drop below SCA criteria Fri night into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday... Widespread minor to locally moderate flooding occurred this afternoon due to the persistent and strong NE winds pushing tidal anomalies to 1.5-2.5 ft above normal across the Jame river. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect here. Farther north, the higher high tide has passed, so the Warning along the Rappahannock has been replaced with an Advisory for the Wed morning high tide. The higher tidal anomalies begin to shift into the upper bay by the middle-later portions of the week, with increasing confidence in southerly flow by Thursday. This would likely yield moderate to locally major flooding at most gauges north of Windmill Point, which could continue into Friday for the Bay-side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore as the wind becomes westerly behind a cold front. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Additionally, the MD Atlantic shore should see minor flooding starting Wednesday afternoon and possibly again Wednesday night; a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to cover this potential here. Water levels should fall rather quickly late in the week into the weekend as winds turn offshore and decrease. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1250102 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and continues into the weekend. - A period of hazardous marine conditions is forecast for tonight into late Thursday night with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Another morning with some areas of low clouds is expected today with mostly sunny skies returning by afternoon. A strong cold front however will be approaching from the northwest during the day so the rather light winds early in the day will shift to southwest to west and increase as the front approaches later today. A band of clouds and a few showers will accompany the boundary as it moves across the forecast area late this afternoon and tonight. Behind the front breezy northwesterly winds will usher in much cooler drier air, but this cool air moving over the relatively warm gulf waters could lead to a few light showers/sprinkles moving onshore during Thursday. Most locations will not see measurable rainfall, but a few spots near the coast could see a few hundredths. Winds then shift to northerly Thursday night and Friday and subside as high pressure moves into the southeast states with fair dry conditions and comfortable temperatures and humidity through Saturday. Low temperatures Friday and Saturday morning are expected to dip into the 40s and 50s across the region which will be the coolest we`ve seen since mid-April, while daytime highs Thursday through Saturday will only be in the 70s. By Sunday the high will be moving out into the Atlantic Ocean with the global models coming more in line as far as the development of an area of low pressure over the north central gulf moving northeast across the southeast U.S. and dragging the next cold front across the region sometime Monday or Monday night. The exact timing varies some, but it does look like there should be enough moisture return to see a few showers on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Areas of MVFR ceilings will continue into mid-morning, then VFR conditions should return and continue through the afternoon. A band of clouds and a few light showers associated with the cold front will move across the region early tonight causing some more MVFR conditions. Light northeast winds early this morning will become southwest to west and increase to around 10 knots this afternoon. Winds will shift to northwesterly behind the front during tonight and increase to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front will move across the waters tonight with robust west to northwest winds setting up behind it leading to small craft advisory conditions tonight through Thursday night. Gradual improvement will take place on Friday and into the weekend before the next system approaches early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 No major fire weather concerns expected today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will sweep through the region tonight accompanied by a few showers. Gusty northwesterly winds will follow the boundary ushering in much cooler drier air later tonight and Thursday. Winds will subside by Friday with fair dry weather prevailing into the weekend. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through the week, but winds will increase to around 15 mph Thursday with some higher gusts yielding higher dispersions. However, red flag conditions do not look to be met at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 65 76 56 / 10 20 20 0 FMY 84 67 79 59 / 0 20 10 0 GIF 82 60 75 51 / 0 10 10 0 SRQ 80 66 76 58 / 0 20 20 0 BKV 79 55 72 46 / 10 20 10 0 SPG 78 66 73 60 / 10 20 20 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1250099 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 221 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - A strong cold front will move through today with the coldest temperatures of the season so far in its wake. Scattered showers are expected ahead of the front with breezy conditions behind the front. A wind advisory is in effect for the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle for peak wind gusts around 40 mph as the front moves through. - A Gale Warning is currently in effect for our western Gulf waters for the potential to see frequent wind gusts around 35 knots. Otherwise, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the eastern half of our Gulf waters due to winds greater than 20 knots. - High surf is expected for the St Joseph Peninsula of Gulf county from this afternoon through Thursday with surf as high as 7 feet. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front will move through the area today with breezy conditions and cooler air behind it. A wind advisory is in effect for the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle for the potential for onshore westerly winds to gust near 40 mph at the beaches. A band of scattered showers is expected to precede the front, but the lack of robust moisture return is expected to preclude anything more than scattered light rainfall amounts. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the coolest temps to the NW and the warmest temps to the SE. Expect overnight low temps generally in the mid 40s to near 50. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A much cooler airmass will move in behind the cold front starting Thursday with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for most areas. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40s on Thursday night and even lower on Friday night thanks to favorable radiational cooling. Friday night could see some areas with lows well into the 30s for the first time this season. A slow but steady warming and moistening trend will have temperatures rebounding a few degrees each day over the weekend and into early next week. Forecast uncertainty increases by early next week with some guidance dropping a strong upper low into the southeast states with rain, while other guidance is more progressive and dry. The NBM PoPs are currently low for early next week, but the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF are wetter with a slower progression of the upper low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 An extensive stratus deck blanketing all terminals will maintain MVFR cigs in the 1500-2000-ft range thru tonight. A brief period of IFR cigs are possible at ABY/VLD during the pre-dawn hrs for which a TEMPO group was introduced to acct. Today, a strong cold front should bring a thin line of showers with an abrupt aftn wind shift from south to SE immediately ahead of, to westerly behind it (westerly). The former is fcst to be sustained 12-15 kts - gusts in excess of 20 kts. Clouds then lift from west to east. Westerly wind gusts will subside around 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A cold front will push across the waters today with frequent gale force wind gusts, mainly west of Apalachicola. A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the western half of our waters today. Likewise, a small craft advisory is also in effect for the waters east of Apalachicola. High surf up to 7 feet is also expected along the St Joseph Peninsula this afternoon through Thursday with the strong westerly winds. Winds will diminish by Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front will quickly sweep across the region today, followed by strong northwest wind and much colder air on Thursday. Minimum RH values are expected to dip into the 30s for many location on Friday through Sunday afternoons. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Minimal rainfall is expected through the weekend. Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 49 67 43 / 30 0 0 0 Panama City 70 52 67 47 / 60 0 0 0 Dothan 64 46 62 39 / 50 0 0 0 Albany 67 47 63 41 / 50 10 0 0 Valdosta 72 47 67 42 / 30 10 0 0 Cross City 74 49 70 43 / 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 72 53 67 48 / 30 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ108-112- 114-115. Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ751-752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1250098 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 226 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region tonight, followed by high pressure through the weekend. A low pressure system could impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CAD will remain across the forecast this morning, expected to gradually weaken during the afternoon. Near term guidance keeps an approaching cold front west of the forecast area through 21Z. Wind should remain from the NNE between 5 to 10 mph this morning, shifting from the SE this afternoon. Temperatures should remain generally steady in the 50s this morning, then gradually warming into the 60s this afternoon. The cold front is timed to sweep across the forecast area this evening. A thin line of isolated to scattered showers may develop along and ahead of the cold front. These showers may produce a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain along and west of I-95, with less than a tenth of an inch to the east. Behind the cold front, H85 CAA may drop temperatures from 10-12C during the evening across SE GA to 3-4C by sunrise Thursday. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 40s across SE GA to around 50 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will prevail across the region through the short term period, building into the region from the west. Aloft the mid levels will consist of broad troughing to nearly zonal flow. This pattern will yield rain-free conditions, with the main forecast highlight being the below normal temperatures. Each day is forecast to only reach into the mid to upper 60s, roughly 5-7 degrees below normal across the region. The coldest time frame of the period will be Friday night, where low temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 30s far inland, with mid to upper 40s along the coastal counties. Frost cannot be ruled out far inland, and a Frost Advisory may be required for inland counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The zonal flow aloft will begin to transition to troughing as a mid- level trough digs towards the southeastern states. High pressure at the surface will shift offshore as a low pressure system develops in the northern Gulf. Despite the approaching low pressure system and its associated cold front, the forecast remains dry through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, returning to near normal by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, IR satellite and observations indicated widespread IFR ceilings with periods of MVFR visibility with drizzle and mist. Based on satellite trends and MOS, IFR ceilings should remain through the rest of the morning at KCHS and KJZI, ending at KSAV by mid-morning. The rest of the day should see some return flow from the southeast as a cold front approaches from the east. Cloud bases are forecast to lift to MVFR this afternoon at KCHS and KJZI, VFR at KSAV. The cold front is timed to reach KSAV this evening, winds veering from the west by 4Z. Also, a thin line of showers is possible with the passage of the cold front. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Gusty W to NW winds around 20 mph are possible on Thursday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Weakening high pressure will yield northeast winds generally between 10-15 kts today, shifting from the southeast late this afternoon. Seas should slowly subside today, remaining between 5-6 ft across the Charleston County nearshore and outer GA waters today, highlighted with Small Craft Advisories. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the marine zones by late this evening. As the front passes, winds will turn from the west with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts. In the wake of the front, winds should gradually settle into the low 20s. Seas may increase by one foot overnight. It is possible that Small Craft Advisories may expand across the nearshore waters of GA and lower SC. Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will prevail over the marine waters through the period. Elevated seas from distant Hurricane Melissa will linger into Thursday, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Charleston nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters through Friday afternoon. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria. Rip Currents: A combination of increasing swell and strong NE winds will yield a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all area beaches both today and Thursday. An enhanced risk of rip currents will likely persist into late-week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-374. && $$ |
| #1250097 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds have already materialized in the wake of a cold front that passed through Southeast Texas earlier on Tuesday. Winds will be strongest overnight and again this afternoon, with a modest lull in the morning. At their peak, sustained winds look to reach 20-30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph in isolated spots. A wind advisory is in place across Southeast Texas today. - Along with the strong winds, much lower humidity will occur this afternoon. Where these dry, windy conditions overlap with areas that have seen the least rain since last weekend, critical fire weather conditions are expected to emerge with rapid or explosive fire growth possible. This is most likely to occur west of the San Bernard River where a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Wednesday. - The rest of the area will see near-critical fire weather conditions emerge. Though either rain from previous days or slightly higher humidity may preclude explosive fire growth, conditions will still be dry and windy in an area of long term drought, making new fires able to spread rapidly. Even outside the red flag warning area, residents should use great care to avoid the ignition of wildland fires. - The strong winds will also bring hazardous marine conditions to area bays and coastal Gulf waters. A Gale Warning remains in place for this evening through 1 AM Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 After a long period of advertisement and anticipation, the long- awaited cold front to usher in real autumn conditions has arrived. Unfortunately, in addition to the lovely crispness of fall, it also brought a host of other, more hazardous guests along with it. For more specifics on today`s fire weather threat, the gales developing on all coastal waters, and yesterday`s record highs please see the Fire Weather, Marine, and Climate sections, respectively, down below. One thing that is thankfully past us along with the cold front is the severe weather threat. The storms that developed ahead of and along the front are now well over the Gulf. Though the most severe storms were to the northeast and east of our area, we were not entirely unscathed. There were numerous gusty storms with winds over 30 mph, and a few instances of winds exceeding 40 mph. Along with that was briefly heavy rain, with rain rates of an inch in less than 15 minutes in multiple locations. Finally, a couple storms were capable of small hail, and a possible waterspout near San Luis Pass prompted a brief tornado warning there. Going forward, we are now experiencing a mostly clear sky, but with strong northwest to north winds already across the entire area. Sustained winds as high as 25-30 mph with gusts to nearly 50 mph are being reported in isolated spots, and windy conditions are expected to continue, with an area-wide wind advisory in place. Winds look to be strongest in a window through the overnight hours, go into a bit of a lull in the morning, then increase again through the afternoon. At their strongest, look for winds in the 20-30 mph range along with gusts as high as 50 mph in the windiest, most exposed locations. The air these winds are bringing in behind the front is colder and MUCH drier. After yesterday`s record or near record highs, look for highs this afternoon to be a good 20 degrees colder, in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees in the warmer spots. Despite the cooling, the very low humidity of the air means that minimum RH looks to drop as low as the upper teens well west of the Houston metro, and even the least impacted locations should see RH fall to around or below 35 percent. We have a red flag warning out for the driest, windiest locations (which also has the driest vegetation) today to highlight where the most severe conditions are. However, conditions area-wide will still be supportive of the ignition and spread of wildland fires. Yes, rain yesterday may help mitigate ignition potential somewhat, but we are still in an area of emerging drought, so that help will be somewhat muted by the already dry landscape. Also, even where RH may not fall quite as low, it will still be low enough for new wildfire starts. And, area-wide, the winds will help new wildfires spread rapidly. Winds should finally begin to die down late Wednesday night or Thursday, and we should finally get a little more opportunity to enjoy the end of the continuing summer that we`ve seen through September and October. Of course, the dry air will stick with us, so it`s still a smart idea to keep those fire safety habits with us through the week. Looking out towards the weekend, we`ll see another trough dig deep into Texas, and give us another front and another opportunity for rain and storms. This looks like a pretty vigorous trough, and something we may need to keep an eye on for a few stronger storms again. What looks like the key factor here is how quickly winds turn back to being onshore, and how vigorous moisture return from the Gulf before we look at storms arriving Saturday into Sunday. If things get loaded up, we may find ourselves evaluating severe storm potential yet again. If moisture return is meager, this could choke things off and result more in a smattering of scattered showers and a few weaker thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Strong & gusty northwest winds continue overnight, with low level shear present due to 40-50 knot winds around 2,0000ft. Surface winds strengthen to 20-25 kts (gusting 30kts) Wednesday morning, reducing wind shear during the day time. Surface winds will start to decrease Wednesday evening, though stronger winds of 30-40 knots around 2,000ft may produce a short window of low-level wind shear tonight, ending during the early morning hours of Thursday. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A cold front has pushed off the coast and out over the open Gulf. In its wake, strong northwest winds are materializing along with building seas. Gale force gusts are already occurring at multiple coastal locations, and should be expected to expand across the waters late tonight. These winds may see a modest lull in the morning, but are expected to increase again Wednesday afternoon, so the gale warning will continue. Winds are expected to drop below gale criteria overnight Wednesday. However, hazardous marine conditions are likely to continue into Thursday, and small craft advisories should be expected to replace the gale warning when winds finally do begin to more substantially diminish. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 The expected cold front has passed through Southeast Texas, and strong winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 45-50 mph are already materializing across the area tonight. These winds are also surging in cooler, but also *much* drier air, setting us up for a day of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across the entire area. Where the worst fuels, wind, and humidity conditions line up, a red flag warning is in effect today. For the rest of the area, though conditions may not be quite as severe in the warning area, conditions will still be near those dangerous thresholds. Whether one is in the red flag warning area or not, it will be important to obey all area burn bans. Even in locations where a burn ban is not in effect, fire use should be avoided today. Across the entire area, it is very important to use extreme caution with work and equipment that could throw sparks into dry vegetation. Even something as simple as a loose chain dragging from a vehicle could start a wildfire. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Prior to the arrival of the cold front, record high temperatures occurred at Houston/Hobby Airport and Galveston. Hobby set a new record high temperature of 91, breaking the 1991/1977 record of 89 degrees. At Galveston, the high of 85 tied the existing daily record high last seen in 2024 and 2023 before that. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 49 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 55 71 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ210-211-226-235-236-335-336-436. GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. && $$ |
| #1250096 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 202 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Reinforcing cool, dry air moves in Wednesday night behind a stronger cold front. - Very low rain chances are forecast through the weekend. - Below normal temperatures for Halloween && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...A weak front pushes south of the forecast area into tonight. Cooler air behind the front has limited temperatures to near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s so far this afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front will continue to advect in PWATs below 1". Dry conditions will persist into the overnight hours. Early morning low clouds have scattered, though models suggest some stratus may build southward late tonight into early Wednesday morning. This appears most likely along and north of I-4, where patchy fog has also been included through sunrise. Overnight lows in the upper 50s for northern portions of the area, with 60s to the south. Wednesday-Thursday...Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area into Wednesday morning. Then, a cutoff low moving eastward through the Tennessee Valley will drag a reinforcing, quicker cold front through the Florida peninsula Wednesday night. This continues a series of fronts that will move through the local area into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, though a few light showers cannot be ruled out along the frontal passage itself Wednesday night. Southwesterly winds around 10 mph or less Wednesday will veer northwesterly and increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph, Thursday. A noticeable cool down begins, with highs in the lower 80s Wednesday falling into the lower to mid-70s Thursday. Overnight lows also fall into the 50s area-wide Thursday night, with upper 40s in more rural locations north of the Treasure Coast. Friday-Tuesday...Yet another dry front is forecast to move through the area this weekend. Cooler conditions continue through late week, before temperatures begin to increase this weekend. Friday looks to be the coolest day of the forecast period, with highs remaining in the lower 70s (around 10 degrees below normal). Near normal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s return for the weekend. Have maintained mostly dry conditions into early next week. However, global models still suggest a deep upper level trough digging into the Deep South, with a cutoff low developing at the surface near the northern Gulf Coast. Thus, it`s possible higher rain chances will be introduced in subsequent forecast cycles. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Poor boating conditions over the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet, as well as the nearshore Volusia County waters through this evening, as seas remain up to 6 ft. These seas look to build southward in the Gulf Stream overnight, as a weak front continues south of the local waters. Small craft should continue to exercise caution in these areas. Building swell from low pressure off of the Carolina coast will degrade boating conditions into Wednesday, despite generally light and variable winds. Then, a quicker front will pass through the area Wednesday night, leading to northwesterly winds 20-25 kts Wednesday night into Thursday night and seas up to 8 ft offshore. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet beginning Wednesday afternoon and will likely need to be expanded into Thursday. Boating conditions are then forecast to improve into late week, despite yet another frontal passage this weekend. Mostly dry conditions, though a few showers will be possible along the frontal passage Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Stratus producing IFR/MVFR cigs from KLEE to KDAB may be able to expand a little farther south through KSFB/KMCO/KISM overnight and linger through early morning. Any stratus near to NW of the I-4 corridor should then gradually break up mid to late morning, with VFR conditions expected late morning into the afternoon. From KTIX southward VFR conditions are forecast to prevail tonight through tomorrow. Conditions will remain dry through much of today into tonight, but may see a thin band of showers along the next approaching strong cold front approach northern TAF sites late this evening. Have included VCSH from 3Z at KLEE and 5Z toward I-4 corridor. N/NW winds around 5-7 knots will become SW 6-8 knots into tomorrow afternoon ahead of the approaching front. May see sea breeze form switching winds to the E/NE at the coast, especially from KMLB southward near to after 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 56 73 49 / 0 20 0 0 MCO 81 58 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 MLB 81 61 75 53 / 0 20 10 0 VRB 82 62 76 53 / 10 20 10 0 LEE 79 56 73 48 / 10 20 10 0 SFB 81 57 73 50 / 0 20 10 0 ORL 81 59 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 FPR 82 62 76 53 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-575. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
| #1250094 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 203 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will result in cool temperatures through tomorrow night with scattered showers possible, mainly near and southeast of I-95. Strong low pressure follows with a period of heavy windswept rain for southern New England later Thursday and Thursday night. Drying out for Friday with gusty winds which linger into Saturday. Dry weather is likely Friday into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Breezy NE winds, mainly for Cape/Islands with gusts 20-30 mph. * Slightly below normal temperatures with a few showers possible mainly southeast of I-95. Tonight A steady northeast flow associated with a coastal low-pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to blanket southern New England with marine stratus, limiting how much temperatures can fall overnight. Expect a milder night than last, with lows in the low to mid-40s across southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape, where overcast skies and mechanical mixing from persistent northeast winds will inhibit radiational cooling. Farther north and west across the interior, partial clearing and a decoupled boundary layer will allow for lower temperatures, ranging from the mid-30s to low 40s. Overall, a dry and quiet night is expected, though a few light showers may occur over the Cape and Islands in association with the offshore low. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Cooler temperatures continue Wed with scattered ocean-effect showers mainly near/southeast I-95. Details... Tomorrow Little change is expected from todays weather pattern. A broken to overcast cloud deck between 2,000 and 3,000 feet will persist, accompanied by steady northeast winds. High temperatures will again range from the low to mid-50s. Winds will remain sustained at 10 to 15 knots, with occasional gusts up to 25 knots possible across the Cape, Islands, and coastal areas. Deep-layer moisture increases through the day, with PWATs rising to 0.81.0 inches across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will support increasing shower chances during the early to mid- afternoon hours. Expect a few light showers to develop, but otherwise another cool and quiet autumn day. Tomorrow Night More of the same pattern continues into tomorrow night, with the offshore low maintaining steady northeast winds and overcast skies. Lows will again range from the mid to upper 40s across southeastern Massachusetts to the mid-30s and low 40s inland. The main change will be an increasing chance of showers across southern New England as low levels continue to moisten and PWATs approach 0.8 inches. Up to a tenth of an inch possible for portions of southeast MA by Thursday AM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Period of heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected Thu into Thu night. * Brief nuisance street flooding possible & 30-50 mph gusts on the coast * Gradual clearing Friday with potential for gusty westerly winds. Details... Key Messages... * A quick hitting storm will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty winds Thursday into Thursday night. * Some isolated nuisance street flooding is possible, exacerbated by abundance of fallen leaves. * Winds will become increasingly breezy late Thursday but really windy on Friday behind the rain. * Dry and a bit cooler than seasonable through early next week. The focus of the extended forecast will be on a storm system moving through late Thursday and Thursday night. We`ll see a deepening surface low pressure lift from the deep south into the Mid- Atlantic Thursday and into Maine by Friday. This happens while at the mid levels a deep trough digs into the eastern seaboard, lifting northeast at the same speed. What this means for southern New England is a period of heavy rain and breezy winds as deep, moist, SW flow ahead of the trough advects PWATs of near 1.75" coincident with a 45-55 kt 85mb LLJ all while beneath the RRQ of a 125kt upper jet. This ample moisture and forcing will lead to a stretch of widespread, sometimes heavy rain which is poised to drop 1 to 3 inches of rain across the region. Fortunately this is a progressive system so the period of heaviest rain should be quick enough to avoid much in the way of flooding impacts. It also looks to be heaviest overnight, between the Thursday eve and Friday morn commutes which would minimize impacts. That being said, given the amount of leaves ready to fall and already on the ground we could see nuisance street flooding. The location of the heaviest rainfall will depend on the exact track of the low but at this time ensemble guidance places it over Cape Cod and the islands with a 20-40% chance of AOA 2 inches of rain in 24 hours. Friday after sunrise the dry slot rushes in and much, if not all of the day should be dry with partly sunny skies and only a pop up shower or two thanks to the cold pool overhead. The biggest story for Friday into Saturday will be the gusty winds as a cold advection pattern mixes down a 45-55 kt LLJ. Wind headlines may be needed Friday and/or Friday night. For the weekend the pressure gradient relaxes a bit but it will still be windy on Saturday before calming down Sunday. Dry and near seasonable weather (a few degrees cooler than average) with highs in the low to mid 50s then continues as surface high pressure moves overhead with mid level ridging by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Wednesday...High Confidence. MVFR ceilings and steady northeast winds 8-12 kts with gusts around 20 kts for BOS and stronger (20+kts) for the Cape and Islands. A few light showers may develop near the east coast, Cape, and Islands by early to mid afternoon. Gusts decrease in the late afternoon for BOS and gradually weaken for Cape/Islands in the evening. Wednesday Night... High Confidence. MVFR ceilings and steady northeast winds around 10 knots. Isolated brief shower/sprinkle possible for east/southeast terminals. Thursday...High Confidence. Moderate for exact timing of rain. MVFR ceilings with IFR developing as the rain arrives with an incoming system. Rain arrives generally from west to east Thursday afternoon/early evening continuing Thursday night. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Brief VFR possible with ceilings above 3000 feet at times, but MVFR ceilings from 2000-3000 feet should prevail for most of the TAF period. KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight Gale force northeast winds develop over the coastal marine zones south of The Islands. The strong winds will develop in response to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure over Canada and an area of low-pressure moving up the east coast. Elsewhere across the coastal waters, expect solid SCY conditions with 25 to 30 knot northeast wind gusts. Seas increasing to 6 to 8 feet over the eastern/outer marine zones. 2-5 feet over the south coastal near- shore zones. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night The pressure gradient relaxes somewhat tomorrow allow for gradually diminishing northeast winds throughout the day. Despite declining wind speeds, we`re still expecting 20 to 30 knot northeast gusts throughout the day with showers developing in the afternoon. Seas gradually subside by a foot or two as well, but remain elevated between 5 and 8 feet over the outer marine zones. These conditions will persist through tomorrow night. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256. && $$ |
| #1250095 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 215 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through tonight. A cold front will cross the area early Thursday morning, bringing much drier weather. Dry high pressure to the west will gradually build east during the latter portion of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overcast skies will persist for most of today with CAD wedge still in place and weak low pressure starting to develop offshore. As a low pressure currently approaching the Mississippi Valley slowly moves eastward, southerly winds strengthen on top of the wedge. This will lead to shallow overrunning (evident via isentropic analyses on 295K and 300K levels), especially for SE NC, and expect on and off drizzle during the day. Without a strong enough mechanism to break the wedge (until tonight), the overcast skies and cool surface layer will be stubborn and therefore have undercut the NBM high temps for today by a few degrees, with highs in the upper 50s along I-95 corridor and low 60s across coastal counties. There is a brief window where the clouds may scatter enough to bring some sunshine to coastal areas late this afternoon. The aforementioned low pressure system to the west becomes a Miller type B storm later today as a new low center forms east of the Appalachians this evening and the wedge finally begins to break down. A cold front will move across the area tonight, though with lingering dry air aloft QPF with the front is quite minimal (0.1- 0.25"). Lows tonight will range from mid 40s to the west, where there will be longer time for clearing behind the front before Thursday morning, and mid 50s to the east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level cutoff and its surface low will be northwest of the area Thu morning with the cold front already to the north and east. Large dry slot wraps around the low Thu morning, creating a sharp clearing line behind the cold front. Forecast soundings do show some moisture trapped below the impressive subsidence inversion on Thu, which could lead to patches of low clouds after a bit of heating. Heating will also lead to surfacing of strong winds at the top of the mixed layer. Current soundings still showing 25-30 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer suggesting gusts as high as 30 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Elongated surface ridge across eastern TX and OK barely shifts east Thu into Fri, but the deepening low to the north will tighten the gradient. Sustained winds will be on the high end of the 10-15 kt range Thu along with the previously mentioned gusts to 30 mph. No impressively cold air or cold advection behind the front, but the troughing will result in temperatures below normal. Pattern aloft shifts from amplified to zonal Fri, helping shift the elongated ridge axis east and pushing a weak cold front across the area during the day. Front passes dry as there is no moisture to be found. Another breezy day with winds 25-30 kt at the top of the mixed layer once again mixing to the surface. Temperatures continue below normal, with potential for strong radiational cooling Fri night if the center of the high can setup overhead. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty in the long term, much of which revolves around a shortwave expected to drop south from central Canada to the western Gulf Coast. Nearly all of the medium range solutions agree another cutoff low will develop as a result of this shortwave, but the location and timing of this feature varies. Looking at the ensemble data and comparing the various deterministic guidance best guess is it forms over the western Gulf Coast states and then tracks roughly east-southeast Sun into Mon. Bulk of the guidance keeps the stacked low south of the area, something that typically results in limited rain chances while the developing wedge Sun and Mon keep temperatures below normal through Tue. However, confidence is very low for the beginning of next week. The current forecast is dry, but it is certainly possible the forecast ends up wetter than what is currently shown. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low-end MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail across SE NC and NE SC throughout the TAF period as low stratus remains locked in. MVFR conditions with ceilings around 1000-1500 ft inland (along and west of I-95) will lower again to IFR this morning. Light rain will continue to fall on and off during the day. There is a window this evening where VFR conditions could develop at coastal terminals (ILM, CRE, MYR), but confidence too low for TAF inclusion. Northeast winds prevail during the day today before turning southerly after midnight as a cold front approaches the area. Rain chances increase tonight with frontal passage, although expect rain rates to be light and thunder chances will be quite low. Extended Outlook...Widespread VFR conditions are forecasted to return Thursday morning behind a cold front. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Gusty northeast winds will weaken a bit this morning, with NE winds around 15-20 kts during the day today as a weak low forms offshore and persistent high pressure wedge inland. Seas will also improve during the day, with 4-6 ft seas across NE SC waters and 5-8 ft SE NC waters lowering to 3-5 ft across all local coastal waters tonight. While Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening, there will be a window of sub-advisory conditions for NE SC waters between this afternoon and midnight tonight. After midnight, winds increase and turn southwesterly as a cold front approaches from the west, and could see 30 kts gusts over the waters. Scattered showers will accompany the frontal passage along with an isolated thunder risk. Thursday through Sunday... Cold front will be north of the waters Thu morning setting up a period of westerly 20-30 kt flow into Fri. Gradient starts to relax late Thu night with offshore winds dropping under 20 kt Fri morning. Dry cold front later Fri leads to more of a northwesterly direction Fri night as high builds in from the west. Not much cold advection behind the front with winds gradually decreasing Fri night. Center of the high shifts east over the weekend with winds veering to northeast. Gradient is weak with no cool surge and speeds will remain under 10 kt. Seas flirt with 6 ft Thu into Fri before more offshore wind component reduces seas within 20 nm. Seas drop to 3-4 ft by the end of the day Fri and run 2-3 ft over the weekend. A southwest wind wave will be dominant early in the period before an easterly swell becomes dominant over the weekend. Late in the period a weak northeast wind wave will develop. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1250093 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 159 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure deepens and tracks northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight with breezy conditions and occasional light rain continuing. Another low pressure system moves through the area Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy tonight with some light rain lingering across southern VA and northeast NC as low pressure tracks northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Surface analysis places a surface low east of the NC coast, with an expansive high across Quebec digging down towards our area. The gradient between these two features resulted in strong winds this afternoon near the coast. Winds have started to decrease and the Wind Advisory has been cancelled, but gusts to 30-40 mph will still be possible this evening along the coast. Rainfall intensity has decreased as well with the heavier echoes on radar mostly confined to coastal portions of NE NC and adjacent portions of VA Beach. As high pressure builds further south overnight into tomorrow morning, rain will start to deteriorate some across the entire forecast area, though a few areas of light rain/drizzle cannot be ruled out. QPF overnight will likely be less than 0.10". Northeasterly winds will continue through tomorrow morning, though not to the extent we saw today. The coastal low will track ENE and away from the coast tonight, which will allow the gradient to relax. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s in most communities and into the lower to mid 50s in SE VA/coastal NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as another strong system approaches. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The local area remains in a rather progressive pattern over the next few days. Wednesday we will be in between two systems. The initial low will be well offshore by tomorrow, with the high over Quebec briefly building southward across our area. Winds will decrease some as the gradient relaxes, but breezy conditions, especially along the coast, are expected to linger through the day. A residual stationary boundary will remain S of the local area, so NE flow will continue to prevail. This will result in cloudy and cool conditions with highs in the lower/mid 50s inland, around 60F toward the coast, and locally in the lower/mid 60s along the SE VA/NE NC coast. PoPs will be 10-20% in the morning, increasing to 30-50% in the late afternoon. Likely PoPs across the Piedmont are forecast later in the afternoon/early evening as a steady light rain develops with another approaching system. Another upper low will dive across the Mid-South on Wednesday, with surface low pressure developing in front of this low along a stationary boundary draped across the eastern Central Plains. This low and associated upper trough will drive NNE on Thursday afternoon, dragging an attendant cold front across the area. As the front pushes through, there will likely be some limited instability and decent shear accompanying it so cannot rule out some weak convection developing. Strong SE flow (35-50 kts) just off the surface is expected as this weak convection moves through, so there is the possibility for a few isolated strong to severe gusts making it to the surface. With this in mind, SPC has placed SE VA and NE NC in a Marginal Risk. In terms of flood potential, that remains low at this time. In contrary to the rain shield today, Thursday`s rain will likely impact the northern half of the forecast area more. Mean QPF values range between 0.75-1.5" for the north and 0.5-0.75" across the south. By Thursday night, the system will lift to the northeast ride the NE coast through Friday night. Conditions will start to dry as this systems moves further away from the area. Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 40s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. Dry conditions are expected on Halloween, though gusty winds will linger through the day. High pressure will build in from the SW, causing the gradient between this feature and the low moving across the NE will tighten. This tightened gradient combined with the drier westerly flow will allow wind gusts to pick up to around 20-30 mph. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the lower to mid 40s. Winds will likely remain high enough to prevent too much radiational cooling. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect each night Friday night through Sunday night. Another front may try to move through the area on Sunday or Sunday night, but there still remains significant disagreement in regards to timing and strength. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... 1033mb high pressure is centered over QB as of 06z and is ridging S into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure and a trailing front are located offshore of the Carolina coast. The wind is NE ~10kt inland and 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt near the coast. Cigs are primarily MVFR with areas of light rain across far SE VA and NE NC, and along the MD coast. MVFR cigs persist through this morning and into the aftn, with IFR cigs developing at RIC by this aftn. Light rain will gradually increase in coverage today as a warm front approaches from the S. Low pressure approaches from the SW tonight with the warm front lifting into the region. MVFR and IFR cigs are expected along with rain occasionally producing MVFR/IFR vsby. The wind will gradually become easterly later this aftn and evening and then SE by tonight, with gusts up to ~25 kt toward the coast. Showers and perhaps a tstm lift across the area Thursday morning as low pressure lifts NE of the region and pulls a cold front through. Conditions rapidly improve from SW-NE Thursday aftn. VFR conditions return Thursday night into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remain in effect tonight for the coastal waters and Currituck sound, with SCAs in effect elsewhere. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect into Wed night given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-14 ft (highest S). Offshore seas remain in the 10-15 ft range. - Low pressure and a cold front impact the area late in the week, bringing continued unsettled conditions. ~1000 mb low pressure is moving northeast out to sea well offshore of the NC Outer Banks this evening. Well to our N, strong high pressure remains settled over Quebec. The pressure gradient between these two features is leading to strong NE flow, with widespread Gale conditions experienced today. Per the latest observations, winds have decreased a bit more since the aftn, so now have cancelled all Gale warnings in the Bay/lower James, while maintaining them on the Ocean and Currituck sound. Also trimmed the end of the warnings by a few hours given the latest trends in model guidance. Gale Warnings will need to be replaced with SCAs tonight through most of Thursday due to lingering winds and seas. Unsettled marine conditions continue through late week as a secondary trough approaches from the west Wednesday, allowing another surface low to track NE across the Mid Atlantic region on Thu. NE winds gradually diminish to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Wed, becoming E Wed night, then becoming SE early Thu behind a warm front lifting north. As the low tracks nearby, expect a lull in winds Thursday (potentially sub-SCA), but confidence is lower during this period. Additionally, a line of low-topped showers (with isolated storms) could track through the waters and bring locally higher winds in the very early morning hours of Thursday. Winds become SW/W behind the cold front Thu night into Fri. The dry/cool air moving behind the deepening low should result in another period of strong SCA to low-end Gale conditions from late Thursday night into Friday. Conditions improve significantly by the weekend with sub-SCA conditions expected (outside of any lingering elevated seas Sat). Waves of 5-8 ft persist in the lower and mouth of the bay this evening into tonight, with 9-14 ft seas on the coastal waters (highest S). A High Surf Advisory remains in effect across all of the Atlantic coastline through Wed night. Seas slowly subside Thursday, but may increase again Friday with the increased W winds. However, the offshore wind direction should prevent the seas from getting much higher than 6-8 ft. Seas may drop below SCA criteria Fri night into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday... Widespread minor to locally moderate flooding occurred this afternoon due to the persistent and strong NE winds pushing tidal anomalies to 1.5-2.5 ft above normal across the Jame river. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect here. Farther north, the higher high tide has passed, so the Warning along the Rappahannock has been replaced with an Advisory for the Wed morning high tide. The higher tidal anomalies begin to shift into the upper bay by the middle-later portions of the week, with increasing confidence in southerly flow by Thursday. This would likely yield moderate to locally major flooding at most gauges north of Windmill Point, which could continue into Friday for the Bay-side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore as the wind becomes westerly behind a cold front. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Additionally, the MD Atlantic shore should see minor flooding starting Wednesday afternoon and possibly again Wednesday night; a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to cover this potential here. Water levels should fall rather quickly late in the week into the weekend as winds turn offshore and decrease. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ |
| #1250092 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - A strong cold front is forecast to move through on Wednesday with the coldest temperatures of the season so far in its wake. Scattered showers are expected ahead of the front with breezy conditions behind the front on Wednesday afternoon. - A Gale Watch is currently in effect for our western Gulf waters for the potential to see frequent wind gusts around 35 knots tomorrow. Otherwise, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the eastern half of our Gulf waters due to winds greater than 20 knots. && .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 The main changes to tonight`s forecast were adjusting PoPs, sky cover, and T/Td based on the latest trends. Rain chances were trimmed back to the west in response to a slower arrival time of precipitation from the current HRRR - now closer to 14Z at our Central Timezone counties. Widespread low stratus blanketing the entire necessitated increasing sky cover, which is depicted best by the HRRR. Local CAMs are having a decent handle on temperature & dew points, so leaned on that guidance. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Northeast winds today clock around to being southerly for a few hours tomorrow morning ahead of our next frontal system. This brief window will allow for some slight moisture advection across our FL counties and parts of extreme southern GA, with dew points increasing into the upper 50s to low 60s. As the front approaches late tomorrow morning and afternoon, its proximity to the base of the trough will push through an LLJ of around 35-50 kts. Gusty conditions should be expected tomorrow as PBL eddies/mixing and convection lead to some of these 850mb winds to mix to the surface. Given the lack of significant moisture, shower/storm coverage is expected to be minimal. The front is also expected to be fairly narrow/skinny leading to minimal rainfall accumulations for the region. The front will be fully out of the region by Wednesday evening. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the coolest temps to the NW and the warmest temps to the SE. Expect overnight low temps generally in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Fairly benign dry and cool to cold conditions follow in behind the cold front as cold air advection is in full swing through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. An area of low pressure looks appear in the western Gulf late in the weekend into the early part of next week. Guidance is currently in disagreement on where this low ends up going, stay tuned over the next several days to see how we`ll end up impacted, if at all, from this next system. Expect daytime highs to gradually warm up from generally the low to mid 60s on Thursday into the low to mid 70s by Monday. Similarly, overnight low temps generally in the low to mid 40s on Thursday warm up into the low 50s by Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 An extensive stratus deck blanketing all terminals will maintain MVFR cigs in the 1500-2000-ft range thru tonight. A brief period of IFR cigs are possible at ABY/VLD during the pre-dawn hrs for which a TEMPO group was introduced to acct. Today, a strong cold front should bring a thin line of showers with an abrupt aftn wind shift from south to SE immediately ahead of, to westerly behind it (westerly). The former is fcst to be sustained 12-15 kts - gusts in excess of 20 kts. Clouds then lift from west to east. Westerly wind gusts will subside around 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A cold front will push across the waters tomorrow, followed by strong to possibly gale-force west to northwest gusts Wednesday night into Thursday. A Gale Watch is currently in effect for the western half of our waters tomorrow. Likewise, a small craft advisory is also in effect for our eastern waters tomorrow. High surf is also possible along the St Joseph Peninsula Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with the strong westerly winds. Winds will diminish by Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A strong cold front will quickly sweep across the region on Wednesday, followed by strong northwest wind and much colder air on Thursday. Minimum RH values are expected to dip into the 30s for many location on Friday through Sunday afternoons. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Less than half an inch of rainfall is expected over the next week, there are currently no flooding concerns. Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 49 67 43 / 30 0 0 0 Panama City 70 52 67 47 / 60 0 0 0 Dothan 64 46 62 39 / 50 0 0 0 Albany 67 47 63 41 / 50 10 0 0 Valdosta 72 47 67 42 / 30 10 0 0 Cross City 74 49 70 43 / 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 72 53 67 48 / 30 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ108-112- 114-115. Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ751-752-770-772. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1250090 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 134 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Marine & Beach Hazards through Thursday. High Rip Current Risk Northeast FL beaches. Rough Surf & Small Craft Advisories. - Minor Tidal Flooding St. Johns River Basin. Coastal Flood Advisory through at least Wednesday Evening. Elevated tides & minor flood risk likely through early November. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Almost the entirety of the area remains socked into low clouds with areas of drizzle and fog early this morning, though things are expected to change throughout the day today as a cold front approaches from the west this afternoon. Low clouds are expected to linger through about mid to late morning before wind direction shifts more southeast to southerly by this afternoon and helps to mix us out. Rather weak convection ahead of the frontal boundary looks to start impacting western areas by about the late afternoon time frame in the form of a somewhat broken line of showers. Fortunately for us, the northeasterly drainage like flow that`s been in place over the past 24+ hours has left a lack of low level moisture to maintain higher chances for rain with the line. This goes hand in hand with expected instability as well, especially with low clouds taking their time this morning to mix out. Therefore, despite modestly strong fall frontal passage, chances for rain and especially thunderstorms are expected to be on the lower side, with the best chances for rainfall being generally over western areas and especially inland southeast GA closer to more favroable upper level support that will be lifting northeast of the area through tonight. High temps are a bit tricky today, with the two main factors being how quickly low clouds scatter out this morning/afternoon, as well as how short lived we will be in the warm sector ahead of the front and how much of a boost in temps that will give us. All in all, expecting to average out to widespread 70s across the area, with some potential for some low 80s over far southern areas where expect low clouds to move out the quickest. The front clears the area from northwest to southeast this evening through early Thursday Morning, ushering in a cool and dry west to northwesterly flow area-wide with cloud cover also mostly clearing out rather quickly. Temperatures and dew points crash throughout the night, featuring lows mostly in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s near the coast and St. Johns River. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Cool and dry with gusty post-frontal westerly winds Thursday between high pressure building eastward across the Gulf Coast states and an approaching reinforcing dry front sliding southward down the SE region. The high builds NNW of the region through Friday with a ridge axis extending across the local area bringing lighter winds as the aforementioned dry front slides offshore of the Atlantic coast. Clear skies prevail Friday into Friday night, with a low to medium chance for some patchy inland frost mainly across southeast GA and areas north and west of the JAX metro area including locations near and north of the I-10 corridor in cooler pockets under good radiational cooling conditions. The latest 01z NBM CONUS run advertised the higher probabilities of (30-40%) of temperatures 36degF or below betweeen Waycross, Hilliard and Glen St. Marys. This would be the first frost of this season. Temperatures will trend below normal this period with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to a few mid/upper 30s well inland Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Dry weather prevails this weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures as the surface high north of the area shifts offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday into Sunday. Low level winds shift to onshore/easterly Sunday as a coastal trough begins to form over the local Atlantic waters, with the low level pressure gradient increasing late Sunday into Monday as this coastal trough morphs into a lifting warm front ahead of the next approaching frontal system. With breezy onshore flow by Monday, a chance of coastal showers returns to the forecast with elevated rip current risk and tidal flooding impacts. Monday into Tuesday, the next frontal system approaches from the west, but there remains a great deal of forecast model discrepancies with the evolution, timing and track of synoptic features, including the track of a frontal surface low. The official NWS NBM extended model guidance is weighed more toward the ECMWF solution which shows a surface low across the southern Gulf with breezy onshore flow across the local area in the cool sector of this system and a drier forecast with just passing showers. However, ensemble runs of the GEFS, GEPS and ENS show a wetter solution with the operational GFS having a potential squall line scenario Mon/Tue with a strong cold front passage and cool down Tue into Wed. Given high uncertainty, there is very low confidence in the Mon-Wed time frame with regards to severe storm risk. What does look likely is a continuation of tidal flooding impacts with the approach of the full moon Nov. 5th. High temperatures will moderate this period back toward seasonal averages with highs in the 70s with lows near to below normal ranging from the 40s/50s inland to 60s coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through at least mid morning for airfields closer to the coast, with IFR expected to be prevailing further inland through the same time frame. These ceilings will start to scatter out and lift by late morning and early afternoon as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Vsbys are expected to remain generally near or above 6SM, though periods of MVFR or even IFR vsbys will be possible at times through the morning, especially during times when winds subside slightly. Winds will shift more southerly later today then quickly west to northwesterly while increasing towards the end of hte forecast period as the front moves through. There will be slight chances for SHRA, though TSRA chances are very low at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Low clouds and areas of mist/drizzle over area waters will subside later this morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds will shift more southeast to southerly ahead of the front before it moves through tonight as Hurricane Melissa moves well to the east of the region. High pressure builds in from the northwest behind the front, with breezy conditions expected through Thursday. Conditions subside Friday and into Saturday as high pressure moves almost directly over the area. Another frontal system is expected to approach the area Sunday, likely bringing unsettled conditions once again through at least Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Coastal flood advisory continues for the St. Johns River basin from downtown JAX southward to Satsuma where peak inundation up to 1.5 ft MHHW is expected around high tides. Expect this trend will continue for at least the next couple of days, but likely through much of next week as astronomical tides further increase with the approach of the Nov. 5th full moon. Will continue to monitor observations to see if the advisory needs to be extended to include the ICW of St. Johns and Flagler counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 45 66 41 / 30 40 0 0 SSI 73 49 68 47 / 0 30 0 0 JAX 76 50 71 45 / 0 20 0 0 SGJ 77 53 71 49 / 0 20 0 0 GNV 78 49 71 43 / 0 20 0 0 OCF 77 52 71 45 / 0 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ132-137- 325-633. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1250089 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 134 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - A few showers and storms possible for Miami-Dade and mainland Monroe through this evening. - Stronger cold front to pass through South Florida on Thursday, with a few showers possible along it. - First prolonged taste of fall-like weather arrives behind the second front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A weak front, located across the peninsula north of Lake Okeechobee, will be shifting south this afternoon. A few showers and storms could develop across the southeast corner of SoFL and move towards the Atlantic and gulf waters. The front might linger across the local area through Wednesday morning, keeping small chances of rain over Southeast FL overnight and the Atlantic waters through Wed morning and this was the only adjustment to the forecast. On track for everything else, with high temps reaching the upper 80s or near 90 today and the mid 80s on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A low-amplitude eastern CONUS shortwave has its core over the Tennessee Valley this morning, with the associated surface low near the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. A surface front extends southwest from the low through north-central Florida per a 06z subjective analysis. Vapor imagery depicts deep-layer dry air in the wake of this frontal system. As the shortwave and surface low lift northeast through the day, and high pressure spills deeper into the Southeast, the surface front will be pushed through South Florida under northerly flow. Based on the timing of the front and diurnal destabilization, there remains a low to medium chance (20-40%) of scattered showers south of Alligator Alley later this afternoon. Thereafter, rainfall is not expected for the remainder of the period. Today through tonight, shortwaves will superposition over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley region, with surface cyclogenesis over the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This frontal system will occlude as it drifts into the Southeast on Wednesday. We`ll get some slightly drier low-level air tonight, which will allow lows to range from the mid 60s across the Lake Region to the low 70s along the coasts. A lack of significant height falls aloft, with the first shortwave being so far to our north, will preclude any significant cooling of afternoon highs on Wednesday. Expect maximum temperatures to still reach the mid to upper 80s. It won`t be until the next shortwave forces the second front through the region that we`ll see more fall-like conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 As the second frontal system fills and moves from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley, the eastern CONUS longwave pattern will amplify, advecting lower heights across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing low and push a cold front through Florida under northerly flow. With deep layer dry air in place, widespread showers and storms are not expected. However, there may be just enough forcing and moisture to result in a narrow band of showers immediately along the front as is passes through South Florida on Thursday. This front will bring more substantial low-level drying and result in overnight lows falling into the low to mid 50s across portions of the interior, and the low 60s along the coasts. With cool air aloft, highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to low 80s. These fall-like conditions will continue through the weekend, though Friday morning and afternoon look to be the coolest. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 VCSH has been introduced from FXE through MIA for much of the TAF. Showers will be isolated to scattered in nature and either offshore or just on the coast with low predictability. Brief periods of MVFR can be expected in showers that impact the terminal, but due to the sporadic nature of the restriction, did not include in the TAF. As the next front moves through overnight, showers will be coming to an end, however, APF has the best shot at experiencing a few showers before they completely dissipate. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A light to gentle northerly breeze is expected today across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. The gentle breeze will continue through Wednesday in the wake of a frontal boundary, but is expected to increase through moderate to a fresh breeze as a stronger front approaches and Melissa moves NE through the western Atlantic on Thursday. A 2-4 foot northerly swell will spread south across the Gulf stream on Wednesday, with seas increasing further on Thursday to about 5-7 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic. Winds and seas will quickly subside through the day on Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Beach conditions will deteriorate on Thursday as Melissa moves NE through the western Atlantic and a strong frontal system moves through south Florida. A combination of increasing winds and northerly swell will result in a brief period of increased surf and a high rip risk on Thursday. While an elevated threat may continue into Friday, conditions will generally be improving into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 69 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 West Kendall 87 67 82 61 / 20 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 87 69 82 61 / 20 10 0 0 Homestead 86 68 81 62 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 68 80 61 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 68 79 61 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 88 69 83 62 / 20 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 84 67 78 59 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 86 67 81 60 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 84 70 79 61 / 0 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ069-168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ |
| #1250085 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Cooler temperatures through Thursday night - Dry through Friday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 The highly anticipated cold front moved through the region a couple of hours ago ushering in stronger winds, cooler temperatures and significantly drier air. The cooler temperatures will hang around through Thursday night with near normal temperatures returning Friday through early next week. Dry conditions are expected throughout the forecast period except for Saturday and Saturday night, where a low chance(20-35%) for showers are anticipated along the Coastal Bend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong cold front has pushed through the area with strong northerly winds in its wake. These winds will persist much of the night, especially east. A brief window of lighter winds is expected around sunrise, before gusty winds develop again during the day Wednesday. VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Near Gale conditions (BF 7) are expected to continue into tomorrow morning weakening into a strong breeze (BF 6) tomorrow evening and a fresh breeze (BF 5) Thursday morning. Winds will continue to weaken to a gentle to moderate breeze by Thursday night. Dry conditions are expected through the end of the work week with medium chances (35-50%) for rain Saturday night.&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Apart from minimum relative humidity values dropping into teens areawide tomorrow afternoon, Energy Release Component (ERC) values are expected to range from the 90-96th percentile across the Brush Country and 75-89th percentile for the rest of South Texas. As we head into Thursday afternoon, the ERC values are expected to worsen with most of South Texas in the 90-96th percentile with the exception of the Victoria Crossroads, who are expected to stay in the 75-89th percentile while minimum relative humidity values are expected to range from 10-25%. These critically low relative humidity values and high ERC percentiles will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Minimum relative humidity values will remain critically low until Saturday which is when relative humidity values are expected to increase above critical levels. The most significant fire weather day will be tomorrow with critically low relative humidity values, high ERC values and strong winds gusting up to 30 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 72 43 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 77 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 75 51 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 74 41 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 45 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 57 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ245-342>347-442- 443-447. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237- 250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1250084 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1211 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - Gale conditions expected over the open Gulf waters late tonight into Wednesday evening. - A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night. - The passage of a strong cold front brings the coldest air so far this season for the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Updated at 1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 An upper trof over the Plains barrels into the eastern states through Wednesday, with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a strong cold front through the forecast area late tonight into Wednesday morning along with a line of precipitation. Instability continues to remain limited with the frontal passage and am anticipating the convection to remain mostly as showers. Have gone with likely/categorical pops shifting across the area with the frontal passage, with dry conditions developing Wednesday as the front exits to the east. Dry conditions continue over the area through Saturday as the eastern states upper trof moves well off to the north and another upper trof develops over the central states. This next system is anticipated to evolve into an upper low Sunday into Sunday night somewhere over the north central Gulf or central Gulf, and depending on how this plays out and where the associated surface low forms could determine if our area ends up with isolated showers on Sunday or much more coverage. Have for now continued with slight chance pops for Sunday and will continue to evaluate. Dry conditions are anticipated to follow for Monday and Tuesday. Lows Wednesday night range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near the coast, then the coldest air yet of the season follows for Thursday night when lows range from the upper 30s inland to near 50 at the immediate coast. Lows Friday night will be just a tad warmer, then lows gradually moderate through Monday night to range from the mid/upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the immediate coast. Highs on Thursday range from the lower 60s well inland to the mid 60s near the coast then moderate to the lower to mid 70s by Tuesday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night, then a moderate risk is in effect for Thursday. A low risk of rip currents follows for Thursday night through Sunday night. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A cold front approaching from the west moves through the area late tonight into Wednesday morning with southeasterly winds 5-10 knots switching to a westerly direction at 10-20 knots. MVFR ceilings prevail over the area until improving to VFR in the wake of the front. Showers will accompany the passage of the front, and a couple of thunderstorms are possible. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A strong northwesterly flow develops Wednesday morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the marine area. The offshore flow gradually diminishes Thursday into Thursday night, with a light easterly flow later developing on Saturday. A Gale Warning is in effect for the open Gulf waters from 4 am tonight until 10 pm Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays and sounds beginning at 4 am tonight until 7 am Thursday, and will be in effect for the open Gulf waters after the Gale Warning until 1 pm Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 55 66 49 65 / 80 20 0 0 Pensacola 60 71 53 65 / 30 70 0 0 Destin 59 74 53 65 / 10 70 0 0 Evergreen 51 66 47 64 / 40 70 0 0 Waynesboro 49 60 47 61 / 80 10 0 0 Camden 50 61 47 60 / 70 60 10 10 Crestview 52 68 46 64 / 10 70 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1250082 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 - The arrival of a strong cold front tonight will result low to medium rain chances tonight, and notably cooler temperatures tomorrow through late week. - A Gale Warning is in effect late this evening into Wednesday evening over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the immediate coast late this evening into Wednesday afternoon. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Wednesday due to the combination of very low humidity, dry fuels, and breezy north to northwest winds. - A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect on Wednesday along the Lower Texas beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A cold front is currently moving south through Deep South Texas, bringing stronger winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple hazards. There is a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along the front, with the strongest convection limited to the Gulf waters. Model guidance continues to show further convective development further inland, and radar and satellite imagery show a recent increase in convection. These showers and thunderstorms will likely move out of the area within the next couple hours as the front pushes further south into Mexico. Behind the front, a cooler and drier air mass will move into Deep South Texas, allowing low temperatures to fall to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. The cooler temperatures will continue through the next several days, with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight low temperatures in the 40s to low 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected through Wednesday evening. This will build higher surf and increase rip current strength along the Lower Texas Coast. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for Wednesday at area beaches. Additionally, a Wind Advisory is in place for the barrier islands and intimidate coast through early Wednesday afternoon. Coastal flooding may also be a concern tonight. The substantially drier air will drop afternoon relative humidity values into the low teens to single digits Wednesday and Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in place across Deep South Texas Wednesday, as strong winds combined with this dry air will increase potential for rapid fire spread if any wildfires occur. Lower wind speeds are forecast for Thursday afternoon, which will likely limit fire weather potential in spite of the low relative humidity values. Winds forecast to weaken and shift back to the southeast Thursday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds continuing through the remainder of the period. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures are forecast to return to the mid to upper 80s by Saturday while low temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 A cold front with strong northerly winds is currently pushing through the RGV, with a limited chance of convection. Expect VFR conditions with clearing skies and wind gusts to near 33 kts through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A Gale Warning is in place for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through early Thursday morning. A cold front is currently moving south across the coastal waters and Deep South Texas, bringing stronger winds in its wake. Wind speeds up to 35 knots with gusts to 40 knots are possible tonight and Wednesday. These winds will build higher seas, with seas up to 15 feet possible over the Gulf waters. Conditions are expected to improve Thursday, as winds weaken and gradually shift back to the southeast, allowing seas to slowly subside. Light winds and calm seas are expected to return this weekend, with generally favorable conditions expected to continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 In the wake of tonight`s cold front much drier air and stronger winds are expected through the day Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to the low teens Wednesday afternoon, while 20 foot winds are forecast to reach 15-20 knots with stronger gusts. This combination is expected to rapidly dry fuels, and could support rapid wildfire spread and erratic fire behavior Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected to continue Thursday, however wind speeds are expected to be much lower Thursday, and likely wont support elevated fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 50 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 46 78 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 49 80 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 45 79 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 53 73 66 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 75 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ351-354-355- 451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ |
| #1250080 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1255 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through Wednesday night, followed by high pressure through the weekend. A low pressure system could impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... This evening: Surface analysis shows cold-air damming entrenched inland sourced from expansive high pressure across eastern Canada with a low over the Atlantic with a front extending to the southwest well off the Southeast coast. Overnight, the cold- air damming scenario will persist while another low develops along the extent of the aforementioned offshore front. The forecast area will remain situated under a blanket of low clouds through the night, resulting in another chilly night with persistent north to northeast flow. Water vapor imagery reveals dry air in the mid and upper levels, revealing a shallow moist layer in the low levels. We have seen persistent very light drizzle across most of the forecast area this evening, and this should continue through the overnight. Temperatures will again exhibit a small diurnal range with current values in the low to mid 50s only falling into the upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A powerful closed upper low will dive southeast into northern MS/AL on Wednesday, with a strong cold front sweeping through the local area Wednesday night. Modest moisture advection ahead of the front and a thin band of forcing for ascent could yield a few showers across the area late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Rainfall totals are expected to mainly be less than one quarter of an inch. Cooler weather expected Thursday through Friday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will dominate at the surface into the weekend, while zonal flow prevails aloft. A cooler airmass will be in place into the weekend, with temperatures several degrees below normal. Friday night is forecast to be the coolest of the period, with lows in the upper 30s inland and mid 40s along the coastal counties (around 50 at the beaches). Frost cannot be ruled out far inland on Friday night. Another upper level trough could impact the region early next week, bringing the next chance for rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, IR satellite and observations indicated widespread IFR ceilings with periods of MVFR visibility with drizzle and mist. Based on satellite trends and MOS, IFR ceilings should remain through the rest of the morning at KCHS and KJZI, ending at KSAV by mid-morning. The rest of the day should see some return flow from the southeast as a cold front approaches from the east. Cloud bases are forecast to lift to MVFR this afternoon at KCHS and KJZI, VFR at KSAV. The cold front is timed to reach KSAV this evening, winds veering from the west by 4Z. Also, a thin line of showers is possible with the passage of the cold front. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible late Wednesday evening as showers move through ahead of a cold front. VFR thereafter. Gusty winds possible on Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Breezy northerly winds between 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts. As the weak surface high pressure gradually weakens and a cold front approaches the CWA, northerly winds should slowly subside overnight into Wednesday morning. Seas will range from 5 to 8 ft across the nearshore Charleston waters, before increasing a bit to 6 to 9 ft overnight. As for other marine zones (AMZ352, AMZ354, AMZ374), expect seas to range from 4 to 6 ft (with some 7 footers reaching into AMZ374). Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all marine zones throughout the period. Wednesday through Saturday: Small Craft Advisory winds/seas expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon in the Beaufort County nearshore waters, then through Friday afternoon for the Charleston County nearshore and GA offshore waters. Rip Currents: A combination of increasing swell and persistent NE winds will yield a Moderate risk of rip currents at all beaches on Wednesday. An enhanced risk of rip currents will likely persist into mid-week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ354. && $$ |
| #1250079 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Cold frontal passage tonight with showers and a few thunderstorms. Much cooler air in the wake of the cold front. - Hazardous marine conditions to return after frontal passage tonight. Gale conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. - Windy conditions late tonight and Wednesday, especially downwind of Lake Pontchartrain. Elevated roadways will be especially susceptible to strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A potent upper level low at the base of a deepening longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS will continue to push a strong cold front through the forecast area over the next few hours. The front should be well offshore and out of the forecast area by daybreak. In advance of the front, the combination of strong forcing and just enough moisture have produced a broken line of showers and few thunderstorms. Fortunately, the severe thunderstorm risk has diminished due to a lack of instability over the area late this evening. Once the rain clears the coast late tonight, a dry weather regime will take hold and remain in place through Thursday night on the back of a deep layer northwest flow pattern in the mid and upper levels. The other concern for Wednesday will be strong flow aloft that is being induced by the tight pressure gradient associated with the upper level low moving through the Deep South. Strong winds of 30 to 40 mph will easily mix down to the surface in the form of frequent gusts starting late tonight and continuing into Wednesday afternoon. Given these frequent wind gusts, a wind advisory has been expanded to include nearly all of the forecast area. The winds will rapidly diminish in the evening hours as the upper level low pulls away and the pressure gradient weakens over the region. The upper level low will also push a thermal trough into the area resulting in temperatures running a good 10 to 15 degrees below average through the period. Lows may even dip into the upper 30s over parts of the Northshore on Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Overall, the upper level pattern will be little changed through the weekend and into early next week. The region will remain embedded within a broader longwave trough axis. Another potent vorticity max and upper level low will swing down from the northern Plains and into the Deep South over the weekend, and this will drive a reinforcing front through the area Saturday night into Sunday. Although moisture return will be limited in advance of the front, strong forcing along the front will combine with the limited moisture to produce some isolated shower activity Saturday night into Sunday morning, and this reflected with 20 PoP in the forecast. Although this reinforcing front will keep a drier airmass in place early next week, temperatures will not change dramatically. Readings will remain below average by 5 to 10 degrees through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A broken line of showers and thunderstorms preceding a strong cold front is the primary concern through 12z. This line of convection will impact MSY, HDC, HUM, NEW, ASD, and GPT between 06z and 10z. GPT will be the last to see any impacts with lower ceilings and brief periods of MVFR and IFR visibility restrictions. After the front moves through, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase in speed to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Skies will also quickly clear as drier air moves in, and prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all of the terminals by 12z. Some low level wind shear on the order of 40 to 50 knots will be an issue at BTR, HDC, MCB, and ASD in the wake of the front Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A strong cold front will bring gale conditions to the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night as much colder and drier air moving over the warmer waters allows winds to reach gale force. A Gale Warning is in effect from early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Small craft advisory conditions may persist into Thursday afternoon, but lighter winds and calmer seas are anticipated by Friday as a high pressure system builds over the waters. A reinforcing front will move through the waters Saturday night into Sunday, but winds will remain below advisory criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 60 47 63 / 90 10 0 0 BTR 52 64 47 66 / 80 0 0 0 ASD 51 65 47 66 / 70 0 0 0 MSY 56 68 52 68 / 70 0 0 0 GPT 54 66 50 67 / 70 0 0 0 PQL 53 69 47 67 / 60 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071. GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1250078 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 29.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1107 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - The arrival of a strong cold front tonight will result low to medium rain chances tonight, and notably cooler temperatures tomorrow through late week. - A Gale Warning is in effect late this evening into Wednesday evening over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the immediate coast late this evening into Wednesday afternoon. - A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Wednesday due to the combination of very low humidity, dry fuels, and breezy north to northwest winds. - A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect on Wednesday along the Lower Texas beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A cold front is currently moving south through Deep South Texas, bringing stronger winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple hazards. There is a broken line of showers and thunderstorms along the front, with the strongest convection limited to the Gulf waters. Model guidance continues to show further convective development further inland, and radar and satellite imagery show a recent increase in convection. These showers and thunderstorms will likely move out of the area within the next couple hours as the front pushes further south into Mexico. Behind the front, a cooler and drier air mass will move into Deep South Texas, allowing low temperatures to fall to the mid 50s to low 60s tonight. The cooler temperatures will continue through the next several days, with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight low temperatures in the 40s to low 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected through Wednesday evening. This will build higher surf and increase rip current strength along the Lower Texas Coast. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for Wednesday at area beaches. Additionally, a Wind Advisory is in place for the barrier islands and intimidate coast through early Wednesday afternoon. Coastal flooding may also be a concern tonight, The substantially drier air will drop afternoon relative humidity values into the low teens to single digits Wednesday and Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in place across Deep South Texas Wednesday, as strong winds combined with this dry air will increase potential for rapid fire spread if any wildfires occur. Lower wind speeds are forecast for Thursday afternoon, which will likely limit fire weather potential in spite of the low relative humidity values. Winds forecast to weaken and shift back to the southeast Thursday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds continuing through the remainder of the period. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures are forecast to return to the mid to upper 80s by Saturday while low temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A cold front continues to move south through Texas and is forecast to reach local airfields in the next 4-5 hours (shortly before midnight). Convection along the front is largely confined to the coastline and over the Gulf, however convective models do show some additional development further inland as the front moves through Deep South Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact BRO and HRL for a couple hours tonight. Confidence is lower for impacts at MFE, with current guidance placing it around the western extent of the convective line. IFR to MVFR conditions could develop with passing thunderstorms. Behind the front, strong and gusty northerly winds are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Wind gusts will likely exceed 30kt for multiple hours. Skies are expected to clear in the wake of the front, with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 A Gale Warning is in place for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through early Thursday morning. A cold front is currently moving south across the coastal waters and Deep South Texas, bringing stronger winds in its wake. Wind speeds up to 35 knots with gusts to 40 knots are possible tonight and Wednesday. These winds will build higher seas, with seas up to 15 feet possible over the Gulf waters. Conditions are expected to improve Thursday, as winds weaken and gradually shift back to the southeast, allowing seas to slowly subside. Light winds and calm seas are expected to return this weekend, with generally favorable conditions expected to continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 In the wake of tonight`s cold front much drier air and stronger winds are expected through the day Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to the low teens Wednesday afternoon, while 20 foot winds are forecast to reach 15-20 knots with stronger gusts. This combination is expected to rapidly dry fuels, and could support rapid wildfire spread and erratic fire behavior Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected to continue Thursday, however wind speeds are expected to be much lower Thursday, and likely wont support elevated fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 64 77 51 76 / 60 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 59 78 44 78 / 40 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 80 49 80 / 30 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 78 45 79 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 76 61 73 / 70 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 77 53 75 / 60 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ248>255- 351-353>355-451-454-455. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ351-354-355-451- 454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ451- 454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175. && $$ |
