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| #1284932 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Patchy frost development is possible over our northern zones during the early morning hours of Sunday and Monday. - Dry conditions prevail for the start of the week, along with warming temperatures. This could lead to an increased risk for fire weather concerns on Monday and Tuesday. - A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will also strengthen behind the front, along with building seas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Cool, dry air continues to filter into the local area as high pressure maintains its hold over the central US. Temperatures through the remainder of the night, as well as Sunday night, should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s over our northern counties, and the low to mid 40s over our southern counties. Although we are not anticipating temperatures dropping below freezing, temperatures in the 30s, nearly saturated boundary-layer conditions, clear skies, and light winds should help to support the development of frost over the northern half of our local area both nights. A Frost Advisory is in effect until 7AM Sunday morning generally for areas along and north of Highway 84. Another Frost Advisory may be needed for Sunday night for similar areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 70s. Temperatures slowly start to moderate through midweek as high pressure weakens and pushes directly overhead. Not anticipating any rain through Tuesday due to subsidence from the high overhead and very limited moisture. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday and lows should range from the low 40s north to the mid 50s along the coast by Tuesday night. One thing to note is that although temperatures are increasing, dew points should remain rather low for both Monday and Tuesday. This would lead to low RH values (~25-30% range). Although winds are expected to remain well below Red Flag criteria, these low RH values, along with dry antecedent conditions, may help to increase the risk for fire weather concerns. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a southern stream shortwave is expected to quickly push eastward. With upper-level flow turning more southwesterly ahead of this shortwave, some modest moisture return is anticipated prior to the shortwave`s passage (PWATs increasing to around 1.0-1.2 inches). This may help to spark a few showers across the area, but overall, coverage should remain rather limited. The next big story will come towards the end of the week as a longwave trough quickly dives southeastward from Canada, digging as far south as the northern Gulf. A strong cold front looks to accompany this trough, pushing through the area sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. Long-range guidance continues to suggest that temperatures behind this front may drop to well below average by the upcoming weekend, bringing the potential for the first freeze of the season over northern portions of the area. Something we will continue to watch over the coming days. The rip current risk remains low through Wednesday, possibly increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally northerly winds around 5-10 knots. However, a weak sea breeze may cause variations in wind direction along the immediate coast during the afternoon. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 High pressure will continue to settle into the region today revealing light winds and wave/seas. Winds increase tonight into Monday morning reaching 8-10kts for protected waters, to 10-13kts for outer waters but will be a short-lived window as winds relax going into the daytime hours on Monday. Next notable window of impacts will be expected Thursday morning as a front sweeps across the region, introducing increasing northwesterly/offshore winds. At this time, winds will likely reach Small Craft Advisory during the daytime hours on Thursday, with sustained winds 18-28kts for Gulf waters and higher gusts near 30 knots. Waves/seas respond reaching 2- 3ft for protected waters, 3-4ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 4-7 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 72 40 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 71 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 70 38 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 74 41 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058. FL...None. MS...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MSZ067. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284931 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 254 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-normal temperatures for the next several days. - The next cold front will be late this week into next weekend, bringing some cooler conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 As advertised, the cooler air has filtered in following the front that pushed through the area yesterday. Pleasant, slightly cooler and dry conditions can be expected over the next couple of days. However, a pattern shift is expected Wednesday as moisture begins to increase ahead of a cold front. The front is expected to move through late Thursday into Friday. A line of showers will accompany the front as it moves through. Models remain consistent that a more significant cool down can be expected after the boundary moves through. Current forecast for next weekend shows widespread lows in the 40s with highs topping out in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overall, a quiet weather pattern expected through the beginning of the week, before a cold front moves through Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 252 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds remain light out of the North. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Mostly quiet marine conditions expected as the week begins. A cold front is expected to move through Thursday into Friday brining a round of showers and possible storms. Winds will remain out of the N to NE at around 5-10kts through the beginning of the week before likely increasing to advisory levels by Friday as the front pushes through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Minimal fire weather concerns expected as RH values remain above critical values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 84 66 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 83 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 80 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 81 58 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 78 66 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1284930 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 247 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Dry weather will persist into next week with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A reinforcing blast of cold air is expected for the end of the week into next weekend with below average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 High pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley will keep northerly to northeasterly winds across the area through midweek. Expect dry conditions to prevail with highs in the 70s and lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Southwesterly flow returns Wednesday as the gradient tightens in response to an approaching cold front. This front is forecast to push through the area Thursday, with breezy northwesterly winds ushering in a cooler and drier air mass in its wake. A few showers will be possible ahead of this front, but meaningful rainfall accumulation is not expected. Highs are forecast to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s this weekend in the wake of the front with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. If the front is as strong as currently forecast, there may be some frost possible over the weekend and a low to medium chance of freezing temperatures across our far northern SE AL and SW GA counties Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with a light northerly to northeasterly breeze. We continue to monitor the potential for fog in and around KVLD early Sunday morning. An amendment may be necessary for them depending on how the fog situation evolves after 09Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather are expected to last into the middle of the week ahead. Later in the coming week, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Northerly transport winds are expected to continue this weekend, veering a bit to northeasterly on Sunday. A dry airmass will also continue. RH values are expected to remain above critical on Sunday afternoon, but there is a medium chance that RH values will dip below critical levels across our northern counties on Monday afternoon. Winds will remain light. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 No hydrological concerns are expected through the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 74 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 74 45 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 75 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 77 51 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 55 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284929 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 218 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Drier conditions will push across most of South Florida through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. - Minor coastal flooding will continue around periods of high tide through the rest of the weekend and into Monday morning. - Chances of showers will increase during the second half of the week as a stronger cold front approaches and moves through the region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season so far could push over the region by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 While mid level zonal flow will continue across the region today, weak mid level ridging will gradually start to move over the area from the Gulf as Monday progresses. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will eventually stall out just to the south of the region today before gradually washing out tonight into Monday. At the same time, high pressure centered to the northwest will gradually build into the region behind the front today through Monday. With plenty of subsidence occurring behind the frontal boundary throughout the atmospheric column, this will allow for PWATs to lower as they will generally range between 1.1 and 1.3 inches across most areas today into Monday. The only exception to this will be over the extreme southern area of the peninsula which will be closer to the front where PWAT values will be slightly higher. The drier air mass will help to keep mostly dry conditions in place through the rest of the weekend and into Monday, with the only exception being a very low chance of a passing shower or two over the extreme southern areas closer to the front. Any shower that would develop during this time frame would be low topped and short lived. High temperatures today and Monday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however, some locations south of Alligator Alley could rise into the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Weak mid level ridging remains in place across the region heading into Tuesday while surface high pressure to the north gradually shifts eastward. Heading into the middle of the week, the mid level ridging will gradually start to give way to a mid level trough as a shortwave impulse passes off to the north of the region. At the surface, high pressure will gradually weaken over the area on Wednesday as it pulls away to the northeast. While most of Tuesday will remain on the drier side, some moisture advection will take place on Wednesday as the mid level wind flow becomes more southwesterly. This additional moisture moving into the region may be enough to introduce a low end chance of showers during the afternoon when instability will be maximized due to peak diurnal heating. High temperatures both on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas. Some locations south of Alligator Alley in Southwest Florida may see highs in the upper 80s each day. Moving into the second portion of the week, the weather pattern across the region will change as mid level troughing will rapidly amplify over the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. At the surface, a developing area of low pressure will push eastward from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states and then eventually off the Northeastern coastline during this time frame. The frontal boundary associated with this system will gradually approach and move through South Florida during the end of the week timeframe. Uncertainty still remains rather high in this part of the forecast as the global and ensemble guidance suite is still in disagreement in regards to the timing of this frontal passage across the region. The ECMWF suite continues to show a more progressive and faster frontal passage while the GFS solutions do show a slower passage through the area. While the exact details still need to be worked out over the next several days, it does look like chances of showers will increase heading into the Thursday and Friday timeframe across South Florida as the front pushes through. While thunderstorm chances look to be on the lower end at this point due to the best dynamics and instability remaining off to the north of the region, this will need to continue to be monitored to make sure these trends continue. Behind the front, strong high pressure will build back into the region from the northwest causing winds to shift and increase rapidly out of the west northwest as cold air advection takes over. While uncertainty may remain high in regards to the timing of the frontal passage during the end of the week, trends are pointing towards below normal temperatures and much drier conditions heading into next weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light winds will remain in place across all terminals through the morning hours. These winds will then become NE after 17z and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the NW after 18z as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze will develop across most of the local waters through Monday. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become north northwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet through Monday while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the southern Atlantic waters through Monday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion of the week. Minor coastal flooding will also remain possible along the east coast during each high tide cycle through the rest of the weekend and into early Monday morning due to the King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 85 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 85 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 71 83 72 / 0 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 84 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 86 70 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 84 69 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 83 70 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284928 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 213 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extended the time of the Small Craft Advisory to Monday evening. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather continues this weekend as slow low pressure slowly moves away into the Gulf of Maine. - Cloudy through midweek with more seasonable temperatures. - Unsettled weather may return late this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather moves offshore this morning as a low pressure slowly moves away into the Gulf of Maine. Latest surface analysis showed that a low pressure over the Gulf of Maine, heading toward Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, a mid level low over southern New England should move offshore later this morning as well. Scattered showers end early, leaving much of today dry. The colder air aloft will result in gusty west to northwest winds developing, especially after clouds break up. Temperatures expected to remain slightly above normal through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cloudy through midweek with more seasonable temperatures. We remain under WNW flow with another upper level trough clearing the region through Monday night, and with it cooler temperatures prevail aloft. 850 mb temperatures look to fall below 0C late Monday night then steadily improve through the day on Tuesday to around 2- 4C. These cooler conditions aloft will remain supportive of a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs Tuesday look to be generally in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s. These more seasonable temperatures are expected to continue through at least midweek as the WNW to W flow aloft continues. Breezy conditions at the surface are expected at least for Tuesday as another low looks to pass to our northeast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather may return late this week. Towards the second half of next week, guidance has continued to indicate possible development of another low pressure originating from just to the south of the region along/just off the mid- Atlantic coast. This looks to be driven by the approach of an upper level shortwave tracking from the Canadian Prairies southeast into the mid- Atlantic region. With this possible system, we could see the return of more unsettled conditions for the second half of the week. A lot of spread remains this far out from this potential system, especially regarding any potential precipitation associated with it. Some guidance indicates a decent bit of colder air aloft, notably 850 mb temperatures below 0C, approaching the region. As such, temperatures look to drop off a bit towards the end of the week, with ensembles showing mean temperatures in the lower 40s and upper 50s for afternoon highs. Onshore winds may end up keeping coastal areas slightly warmer, and any precipitation that falls there would lean towards rain. Over the colder interior, we could see some rain to wet snow falling. This event is still towards the day 6 and 7 timeframe of the forecast, so much will likely change between now and then regarding the details of this system. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. MVFR and local IFR conditions improve to VFR by early afternoon from SW to NE. MVFR conditions take longer to clear out across the higher terrain of central and western MA. W winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts as high as 30 kt by this afternoon. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. SW winds generally 5-10 kt with winds slightly higher towards the Cape and Islands. Cloud cover increases after midnight with ceilings starting to decline over western MA. Monday...High confidence. VFR for most. Local MVFR possible across the higher terrain of central and western MA. Mainly dry, but perhaps a few showers towards western MA. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Veterans Day through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. Gusty W to NW winds develop today. Lingering rough seas, mainly across the southern outer coastal waters. The rough seas across those waters are likely to persist through at least Monday night, and perhaps longer. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Veterans Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ232- 233-235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ234. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1284927 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1244 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Flood Watch issued for most of South Texas through Monday noon (Slight risk of flooding today [level 2 of 4]) - High rip current risk and coastal flooding concerns today. - Small Craft Advisory through tonight && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 The 500 hPa closed low is slowing down as it places all of South Texas under abundant diffluence aloft through Monday night as the low itself begins to fill. At the surface, a surface boundary has set up west of Alice, spanning north to south. This is helping push in Gulf moisture into South Texas and setting up an area of moisture convergence. At the same time, a low LLJ will start advecting additional moisture at the low to mid-levels. We`re already seeing 1.7"+ PWATs advecting into South Texas. Given all these factors, in addition to elevated instability and some slantwise/CSI instability, we`re in for a soggy 24-36 hr period across South Texas. Comparing what is being forecast (at least from the ECMWF, the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for Laredo has been between 0.85 to near 1.0 with a Shift of Tails (SOT) closer to the 2-4 range for QPF. In otherwords, what the model is forecasting is extreme outlook for QPF relative to the model climatology while the high SOT is indicating that the event will substantially outperform the mean. This is further supports the overall trend of a high spread amount global and CAM solutions. While these statistical evaluations show the potential for the higher end of solutions remaining a possibility, this does not lead to the confidence as to 1) where the highest rainfall amounts will fall and 2) the magnitude of these amounts. While the overall soils will be able to absorb a good portion of the forecast rainfall, any moderate to heavy rainfall rates in addition to slow-moving storm motion/training will increase the risk for flash flooding, especially as these storms move into the more urbanized areas across South Texas (such as Laredo, Alice, Kingsville, Corpus Christi, etc). There will be several bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall (some localized convective storms) through the morning and again tonight into Monday morning. In between these heavier rounds overall scattered showers will continue. The latest forecast is calling for widespread areas of 2-4 inches along the coastal areas generally from Rockport and locations southwest, with the Brush Country seeing greater confidence of 3-6 inches (accumulations through Monday night). Where convective storms move over slowly or train across several bouts will be where higher end rainfall amounts of 7-9 inches will be greatest. NBM shows much of Webb County under a 20-40% chance of surpassing 6 inches for this period. Interestingly, HRRR guidance has been a bit more aggressive with an MCS-like structure developing over the Rio Grande Plains around 3am and then moving eastward toward the Coastal Bend through mid-morning, bringing a localized area of 5-7 inches through this afternoon. We will watch this trend carefully especially given the urbanized setting in the region. Isentropically supported showers and storms will start winding down Monday night, but rain chances continue Tuesday (20-30% chances across South Texas) and Wednesday (20-40% chances along the coastal areas and into the Victoria Crossroads). After the front clears the area on Thursday, drier air filters into the region through Saturday leading to slightly-below to near-normal high temperatures. By Sunday, onshore flow returns bringing back Gulf moisture into South Texas. Across our waters, beaches and coastlines, the return of coastal flooding concerns begin with the upcoming high tide cycle with P- ETSS guidance showing water levels reaching 2-2.5 ft above MSL and again with Monday`s high tide cycle. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Gulf-facing beaches and along the bays/estuaries (so if you`re an angler hoping to park on the sand back along Nueces Bay, you`ve been warned about the possibility of vehicles being cutoff from dry land). Additionally, the easterly component of the wind at 20-25 kts will lead to a high rip current risk, but will decrease by Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will drop to MVFR/IFR through the night as widespread showers and thunderstorms move across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday, leading to periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. Have included PROB30 groups through the period as multiple rounds of convection move through the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Easterly winds at 20-25 kts can be expected today with seas increasing to 6-8 ft leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. Additionally, strong showers and thunderstorms will increase across the western Gulf waters through the day and continue through at least Monday night, when precipitation and rougher conditions start subsiding. From Tuesday, winds drop down to light and gentle breezes (BF 2-3) with seas decreasing to near 2 ft. Rain chances return Tuesday with 20-40% chances, increasing 40-60% on Wednesday before another frontal system brings fresh northerlies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Due to the high chance for widespread wetting rains this weekend and above 40% across South Texas through the upcoming weekend, the fire risk will remain low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 64 71 61 / 90 100 90 20 Victoria 68 56 66 54 / 70 50 90 10 Laredo 72 62 66 60 / 100 100 90 50 Alice 72 58 68 56 / 100 100 90 30 Rockport 78 63 73 61 / 70 80 90 20 Cotulla 66 57 65 56 / 100 100 100 60 Kingsville 75 63 71 59 / 100 100 100 20 Navy Corpus 77 69 73 67 / 90 100 90 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ229>233-239>246- 342>346-442-443. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST this morning through late tonight for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232-236-237. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ |
| #1284926 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 146 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories issued for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet Monday morning and afternoon. Aviation Disco Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend. 2) Well below normal temperatures expected late next week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler airmass continues to build into the area this morning behind yesterday`s cold front as high pressure expands in from the west. Today will be the coolest day of the week until next weekend (see the next key message) with highs in the low to mid 60s. With periods of light winds tonight, likely interrupted by a reinforcing front passing over, some patchy frost is possible overnight in well sheltered areas where lows may fall into the upper 30s. This may be tempered by a thick deck of cirri passing overhead. Monday night continues to look like the best candidate for more widespread frost as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm as the high crests overhead. Like the previous shift, nudged overnight lows down a few degrees closer to NBM 10th percentile, and did the same for Tuesday night with little change in the pattern, resulting in forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s. Beyond this period, guidance continues to depict an increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS and likely drives coastal low development off the east coast. Evolution and strength of the low remain uncertain, but it will at least bring our best chances of rain for the period and breezier conditions across the Outer Banks. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to strongly hint at unseasonable cold temperatures next weekend behind the low pressure system. While there is inherent uncertainty 7 days out, CPC does have a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for our coastal plain counties next weekend. This will be worth monitoring for any freeze headlines, as the end of the growing season is Nov 25 for our land forecast zones. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0130est...High pressure expands over terminals from the west with low departing to NE. VFR flight cats in place through bulk of near term. Clouds>FL200 overnight clear through SUN morning. Thin layers of patchy MIFG possible in areas that decouple temporarily, but background winds are forecast to stay in the 3-5kt range. Have included tempo MVFR VIS for spots that have shown brief periods of 00000kt already tonight. SKC Skies remain clear tomorrow with NW-N winds in the morning becoming predominantly W this afternoon and eventually SW this evening. Winds AoB 5kt. Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected with much drier airmass and high pressure over the region through midweek. && .MARINE... Secondary surge of dry air is driving an uptick in NW winds this morning with winds of 15-20 kt and occasional gusts to 25 kt, but seas have managed to fall below 6 feet. This surge will end by morning with lighter winds of 5-15 kt expected after sunrise today. Main feature of interest is a second dry cold front expected to transit the waters on Monday, with guidance trending upward in SW to W winds ahead of the front at 15-20 kt with higher gusts. This surge also looks marginal for gusts, but considering higher antecedent seas it will likely be enough to boost seas back above 6 feet for much of Monday. Therefore, issued a new SCA for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. Outlook: Benign boating conditions expected through the period with NW winds backing W to SW by mid-week ahead of the next storm system expected to impact the region beyond Wednesday. Magnitude of impacts remains uncertain but at least SCA conditions and elevated seas are likely for most waters into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ |
| #1284925 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 143 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Areas of dense fog across portions of southeast Georgia early this morning. - 2) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of dense fog across portions of southeast Georgia early this morning. On the back edge of an inverted surface trough moving southwards, areas of dense fog have developed across portions of southeast Georgia south of the I-16 corridor. The fog is visible on satellite imagery, with the few observations sites out there reporting visibilities from a quarter mile to 2 miles. Probabilities for visibility less than a quarter mile are in the 30 to 50% range, about 10% lower than the probabilities for less than a mile, indicating any fog has potential to become dense. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for McIntosh and Long counties through 9 AM. Otherwise, overnight lows in the lower to upper 40s are expected, though areas along the coast and those under the fog/stratus will likely remain in the lower 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected into next week. Rather pleasant fall conditions build across the region as surface high pressure builds in from the west-northwest today. Afternoon highs temperatures will range from the lower to mid 70s, warmest across southeast Georgia, with upper 60s to lower 70s along the area beaches. Overnight into Monday, clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling to bring us back down into the lower to upper 40s across the region away from the coast, and into the lower to mid 50s along the coast. Will again be watching for the potential for fog as temperatures approach dew point temperatures, with guidance suggesting highest chances for fog across southeast Georgia. Expect much of the same to continue into the middle of the week, with temperatures slowly climbing back up into the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly similar, in the lower to mid 40s away from the coast and in the lower/mid 50s on the immediate coastline. A fast moving cold front looks to move through the region sometime late Thursday/early Friday. This may bring a period of light showers on Thursday ahead of the front, with cooler and breezy conditions expected on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the period. For areas well south of the I-16 corridor, LIFR cigs/visbys are occurring and will linger into the morning before dissipating. Otherwise northeast winds will remain light into the afternoon, with winds becoming calm later this evening into the overnight period. Another round of fog and/or low stratus is possible overnight into Monday, with guidance suggesting highest chances across southeast Georgia. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR during the daytime, with visibility restrictions possible during the late overnight into early morning hours on both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Sunday through Thursday: Surface high pressure will prevail across the Southeast U.S. today into the first half of next week, bringing a light to perhaps gentle breeze. Seas will be 3-5 ft on Sunday. On Monday, seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3- 4 ft for the 20-60 nm waters, then persisting through the middle of next week. Winds pick up on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming breezy out of the southeast with gusts to near 30 knots during the afternoon hours, with 4 to 6 foot waves building into the region. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ137-240- 241. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284923 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1233 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of mainly light rain for some locations. - Small Craft Advisory in effect for portions of the upper Texas coast for moderate east winds and 4-7ft seas. - Cold front is expected late Wednesday or early Thursday followed by drier colder weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Upper trof/low situated across ncntl Mexico. The first ejecting shortwave (one of many) is producing a large area of precipitation between Dallas and San Antonio. Some of this precip will probably clip some of our northern zones in the next several hours. Additional precipitation will probably develop further south across south Texas closer to a surface trof today...some of which may track into parts of the area later in the day. This too, will mainly be light...and overall accumulations will be negligible the further east (I-45ish) one goes. With abundant cloud cover, readings won`t have much of an opportunity to warm...so we`re probably looking at highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s depending on location. Same general setup is in play again on Monday, with highest rain chances across our southwest CWA. By Tuesday we`ll see the upper low slowly lift ene across the state. Cloudiness will linger as will lowish rain chances. Heading into mid-late week, amplified ridging across the western CONUS and deepening trof across the eastern CONUS will bring an an drier northwesterly flow aloft. Looking for a cold frontal passage Wednesday night followed by dry, cool weather for the remainder of the week. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Since the previous update, environmental and model data trends are suggesting a somewhat more moist atmosphere than earlier expected. Widespread SHRA in central TX is slowly drifting in our direction tonight. It will encounter some dry air, but perhaps a little less than previous forecasted. For now, we`ve added VCSH to the CLL TAF, while adding PROB30s for -SHRA for CLL, IAH, HOU, and SGR. Any rain should be light. But we cannot rule out cig/vis drops in any -SHRA. We`ll watch data trends closely, making amendments when warranted. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Moderate easterly winds will continue through tonight, with the highest winds and seas in the waters west of Freeport. Speeds and seas should gradually diminish Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will push into the waters Wednesday night followed by moderate offshore winds, building seas, and Small Craft Advisories likely in its wake. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 55 70 55 / 50 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 69 58 69 57 / 30 30 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 71 64 70 64 / 20 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for GMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ355-375. && $$ |
| #1284922 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 117 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 117 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Quiet, seasonable weather continues through the middle of this week. A strong cold front is forecast to reach Central Florida late Thursday or Friday, but only light rainfall is currently expected. The coolest air of the autumn season is increasingly likely next weekend. - A long-period swell is causing a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin earlier this week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- An impressive mid-level shortwave over New England drove a weak cold front through Florida on Saturday. This evening`s Cape Canaveral sounding revealed substantial mid-level drying behind the front, with 700-mb relative humidity falling to just 4%. A broad area of high pressure extends from West Virginia to Oklahoma. Winds have turned northwesterly behind the front but will quickly turn onshore as the high remains north of Central Florida over the next couple of days. The upper-level pattern across CONUS is quasi-zonal with split-flow characteristics. A weak subtropical jet extends from Mexico to N Florida, and the polar jet runs from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes with multiple shortwaves embedded within it. Through early Wednesday, we anticipate little change to this rather progressive, low-amplitude pattern. Total moisture values should average near to just below normal with boundary-layer temps slightly above normal. Overall, this portends high confidence in low impacts for Florida and surrounding areas. While the overall longwave pattern remains relatively stationary over the next 7-9 days, substantial amplification is favored in the latest ensemble guidance. A series of shortwaves embedded within a 150-200 kt Pacific jet is forecast to deepen the trough over the Eastern Pacific by Wednesday; in response, pronounced downstream ridging should build across the Intermountain West. This configuration, coupled with a developing -NAO blocking pattern over Greenland, will favor the amplification of a deep trough across the Eastern U.S. beginning Thursday. Cluster analysis of the 07/12Z ensemble suite revealed increasing disagreement with timing and depth of the trough by Friday and Saturday. Before then, there is generally good agreement that a cold front will pass through the state sometime between late Thursday and early Friday. A weak subtropical jet streak may provide additional upper-level support for precipitation along the boundary. However, recent runs have trended somewhat drier. Well north of Florida, a nor`easter may form on the eastern flank of the trough, enhancing northerly winds and cold air advection behind the front. Guidance slightly favors a more progressive scenario with height rises commencing next Sunday. By that time, continental high pressure should be centered roughly over the Ohio Valley, with winds turning onshore shortly afterward. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Wednesday... This is the tranquil, pleasant stretch of the forecast. Rain chances remain below 20% for much of the period. Near-seasonable temperatures are forecast with intervals of cloud cover mixed with sunshine. Each day, highs will range from 80-85 with lows mainly in the 60s, except some upper 50s north of Orlando. A lingering easterly long-period swell persists in the Atlantic, so the high risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue through at least Monday. Additionally, minor coastal flooding is possible mainly near and south of St. Lucie Inlet during the morning high tide cycles through early this week. Thursday - Next Weekend... Clouds should increase Thursday as a stream of moisture precedes an approaching cold front. Thursday`s highs in the upper 70s to near 80 will be the warmest of this period. By Thursday night, the cold front is expected to enter Central Florida before quickly passing south of here on Friday. Rainfall potential has trended downward. Nearly 75% of grand ensemble members produce little to no rainfall, or only light, scattered showers along the front. Any lingering showers on Friday should exit the area as much drier and cooler air drifts over the state as the weekend arrives. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s as we end the work week. The coolest day appears to be Saturday, when much of the area is forecast to only reach the mid/upper 60s. Sunday looks a touch warmer, in the upper 60s to mid 70s. While substantial uncertainty remains regarding the amplitude and progression of the upper-level trough, confidence is increasing that the coolest temperatures of the autumn season will arrive next weekend. On the coolest morning (next Sunday), we are forecasting mid to upper 40s over much of the interior, with low/mid 50s along the coast. Our cooler scenario (10% chance of occurrence) has trended slightly colder for next Sunday, ranging from the low to mid 40s over the interior to the upper 40s and low 50s along the coast. Accounting for wind chill, there is a 10-30% chance of apparent temperatures in the upper 30s both next Saturday and Sunday mornings roughly from Orlando and points northward. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 A sprawling area of high pressure will hold nearly stationary over the Mid-South through early this week before dropping toward Florida by Wednesday. Tranquil conditions are expected, but a lingering long-period easterly swell will cause occasionally poor boating conditions, especially near inlets and offshore. Low pressure is forecast to develop and move toward the Mid-Atlantic by late Thursday, dragging a strong cold front toward the area by Thursday night or early Friday. Light winds becoming NE 5-12 kt each afternoon today and Monday. Winds then become light on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore but up to 6 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet through Tuesday. Seas decrease to 2-4 ft all areas by Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 117 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Mainly VFR conds continue over the next 24hrs. Low risk early in the period for patchy fog near/west of MCO and will monitor. Light NW/N winds will transition onshore (5-10 kts) along the coast in the afternoon with this trend slowly pushing inland. Winds will be variable at times over the interior this afternoon with a weak pgrad in place. Winds fall back to L/V to calm this evening and overnight. Perhaps a slightly better chance for VSBY reductions due to fog overnight Sun into Mon morning across interior terminals, but confidence remains low overall. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 117 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise over the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage either today or Monday with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage towards the middle of the week. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 63 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 82 64 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 81 66 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 83 66 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 63 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1284921 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1259 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories issued for waters north of Ocracoke Inlet Monday morning and afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend. 2) Well below normal temperatures expected late next week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler airmass continues to build into the area this morning behind yesterday`s cold front as high pressure expands in from the west. Today will be the coolest day of the week until next weekend (see the next key message) with highs in the low to mid 60s. With periods of light winds tonight, likely interrupted by a reinforcing front passing over, some patchy frost is possible overnight in well sheltered areas where lows may fall into the upper 30s. This may be tempered by a thick deck of cirri passing overhead. Monday night continues to look like the best candidate for more widespread frost as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm as the high crests overhead. Like the previous shift, nudged overnight lows down a few degrees closer to NBM 10th percentile, and did the same for Tuesday night with little change in the pattern, resulting in forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s. Beyond this period, guidance continues to depict an increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS and likely drives coastal low development off the east coast. Evolution and strength of the low remain uncertain, but it will at least bring our best chances of rain for the period and breezier conditions across the Outer Banks. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to strongly hint at unseasonable cold temperatures next weekend behind the low pressure system. While there is inherent uncertainty 7 days out, CPC does have a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for our coastal plain counties next weekend. This will be worth monitoring for any freeze headlines, as the end of the growing season is Nov 25 for our land forecast zones. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through the period as high pressure expands over terminals from the west. Modest increase in cirri coverage expected overnight as a weak mid-level wave shifts across the region, otherwise skies will be primarily clear. NW winds will remain steady overnight as a secondary front crosses terminals, but winds should stay below 5 kt save for nearshore sites. Skies remain clear tomorrow with NW winds in the morning becoming variable and then more predominantly W to SW by late afternoon, although still remaining at 5 kt or less. Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much drier airmass remains over the region. && .MARINE... Secondary surge of dry air is driving an uptick in NW winds this morning with winds of 15-20 kt and occasional gusts to 25 kt, but seas have managed to fall below 6 feet. This surge will end by morning with lighter winds of 5-15 kt expected after sunrise today. Main feature of interest is a second dry cold front expected to transit the waters on Monday, with guidance trending upward in SW to W winds ahead of the front at 15-20 kt with higher gusts. This surge also looks marginal for gusts, but considering higher antecedent seas it will likely be enough to boost seas back above 6 feet for much of Monday. Therefore, issued a new SCA for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. Outlook: Benign boating conditions expected through the period with NW winds backing W to SW by mid-week ahead of the next storm system expected to impact the region beyond Wednesday. Magnitude of impacts remains uncertain but at least SCA conditions and elevated seas are likely for most waters into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ |
| #1284920 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 - Patchy frost development is possible over our northern zones during the early morning hours of Sunday and Monday. - Dry conditions prevail for the start of the week, along with warming temperatures. This could lead to an increased risk for fire weather concerns on Monday and Tuesday. - A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will also strengthen behind the front, along with building seas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Cool, dry air continues to filter into the local area as high pressure maintains its hold over the central US. Temperatures through the remainder of the night, as well as Sunday night, should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s over our northern counties, and the low to mid 40s over our southern counties. Although we are not anticipating temperatures dropping below freezing, temperatures in the 30s, nearly saturated boundary-layer conditions, clear skies, and light winds should help to support the development of frost over the northern half of our local area both nights. A Frost Advisory is in effect until 7AM Sunday morning generally for areas along and north of Highway 84. Another Frost Advisory may be needed for Sunday night for similar areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 70s. Temperatures slowly start to moderate through midweek as high pressure weakens and pushes directly overhead. Not anticipating any rain through Tuesday due to subsidence from the high overhead and very limited moisture. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday and lows should range from the low 40s north to the mid 50s along the coast by Tuesday night. One thing to note is that although temperatures are increasing, dew points should remain rather low for both Monday and Tuesday. This would lead to low RH values (~25-30% range). Although winds are expected to remain well below Red Flag criteria, these low RH values, along with dry antecedent conditions, may help to increase the risk for fire weather concerns. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a southern stream shortwave is expected to quickly push eastward. With upper-level flow turning more southwesterly ahead of this shortwave, some modest moisture return is anticipated prior to the shortwave`s passage (PWATs increasing to around 1.0-1.2 inches). This may help to spark a few showers across the area, but overall, coverage should remain rather limited. The next big story will come towards the end of the week as a longwave trough quickly dives southeastward from Canada, digging as far south as the northern Gulf. A strong cold front looks to accompany this trough, pushing through the area sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. Long-range guidance continues to suggest that temperatures behind this front may drop to well below average by the upcoming weekend, bringing the potential for the first freeze of the season over northern portions of the area. Something we will continue to watch over the coming days. The rip current risk remains low through Wednesday, possibly increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally northerly winds around 5-10 knots. However, a weak sea breeze may cause variations in wind direction along the immediate coast during the afternoon. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Light to occasional moderate northerly flow will persist through the reminder of the weekend as surface high pressure builds into the region with winds shifting northeasterly over the Gulf by Monday morning. Light offshore flow Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning will become light and variable through midweek as the high pressure moves over the Gulf waters. A light to moderate westerly flow on Thursday will shift to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow thursday night as the next cold front sweeps through the region. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 50 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 52 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 67 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 68 38 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 37 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 71 41 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>058. FL...None. MS...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284919 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 - Cooler and much drier conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday before moderating at midweek. A second cold front will bring another round of cool and dry conditions to the area toward the end of the work week and into the weekend. - Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Split upper flow continues this evening. Northern stream shortwaves were near New York City and entering northwest Minnesota. A deeper northern stream trough off the Washington coast is moving toward ridging over the northern Rockies. The southern stream shortwave that was near Las Vegas last night is now over northern Mexico to the south of the Arizona-New Mexico border. Under mostly clear skies tonight, there`s a wide range of temperatures at 11 PM CST, from 43 at Pascagoula to 64 in New Orleans. Surface high pressure near the Missouri-Arkansas border this evening will drift slowly southward toward the northern Gulf Coast through the first half of the week. The southern stream shortwave will move across the local area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Precipitable water values struggle to get above 1 inch (right at the daily mean), and low level RH values don`t get much higher than 50 percent. I suppose we could get some very light precipitation out of a mid level cloud deck as the shortwave moves across the area, but it`s not going to amount to much, and for now, the forecast will remain dry. Most high temperatures should be in the 70s through Wednesday, but won`t be surprised if a few spots make it to 80 or 81 if cloud cover is limited. Overnight lows should be in the 40s to around 50, with the exception being the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain, where warmer water nearby will probably hold lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Medium range models trending into decent agreement in carving out a pretty deep trough over the Great Lakes, upper Ohio River Valley and eastern third of the country for the second half of the workweek. The lead northern stream shortwave will impact the local area Wednesday night or Thursday morning. If any significant rain was going to occur over the next week or two, that appears to be the only real opportunity, and probably just near the coast. The GFS has been more bullish on precipitation, with the ECMWF operational dry. Currently, the NBM PoP numbers are tracking with the ECMWF solution...no rain. The front associated with the shortwave will definitely bring cooler and dry air into the area for Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to top out in the 60s, and some guidance isn`t even that warm in southwest Mississippi. With dew points forecast to drop into the 30s Friday and Saturday, that brings at least some potential for patchy frost in normally colder locations like the Pearl and Pascagoula River basins on Saturday morning if winds decouple. That looks to be the coldest night with lows in the 30s across the north half of the area. There`s at least a limited chance that some well sheltered locations could get pretty close to freezing. Friday and Sunday mornings are a few degrees warmer than Saturday morning. Temperatures look like they`ll rebound to above normal by day 8/9 (Sunday or Monday). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Will hold onto the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over the far western waters until 18z Sunday, before they relax sufficiently. After that point, winds are expected to remain below 15 knots through the first half of the workweek. The expected passage of a strong cold front on Thursday is expected to bring at least Small Craft Advisory level conditions to most of the waters from Thursday night into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Fire weather concerns will continue through at least Tuesday across the northern half of the area. Relative humidities are likely to drop below 30 percent each afternoon through Tuesday before moderating Wednesday. Undercut the NBM deterministic daytime dew points through Tuesday using a blend of NBM25/CONSALL. Even that may not be low enough, as the 07/18z run MAV daytime dew points are several degrees lower than the blend I used, and even lower than NBM10. The one concern with RH values, is that there is the potential for a fair amount of mid and high cloud cover late Monday into Tuesday, which could limit somewhat how warm it gets, which would also impact relative humidity values. Burn bans remain in effect across much of the northern half of the area. Outdoor burning in those areas should be postponed until moisture levels improve enough for officials to cancel burn bans. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284918 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1244 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Forecast lows for Monday night have nudged lower and frost is becoming a concern for normally colder spots. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the middle of the new week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the middle of the new week. Surface high pressure will dominate the weather with near- to below- normal temperatures through much of this week. Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s away from the immediate coast through Sunday night. As ridging aloft nudges in from the west, high temps are expected to rebound early this week, bringing highs into the middle 70s while lows remain mostly in the 40s through Thursday night. One exception looks to be Monday night as another shot of dry air filters in behind a dry cold front. Calm winds, clear skies, and dry air all support great radiational cooling, with lows likely dipping into the mid-30s in the normally colder spots, bringing a chance for frost. A significant trough in the jetstream is forecast to develop and send well-below normal cold into the eastern US late this week. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around the broader trough, there is at least a low chance that scattered showers affect parts of the area, but confidence is very low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Expect light north winds through this morning before a high pressure center passes just west of the area, resulting in light and variable winds this afternoon and early evening. Calm winds will then take over soon after sunset. Extended outlook...VFR through at least Wednesday. MVFR/IFR may return Thursday, confidence is low and will depend on timing of next system. && .MARINE... Northerly winds around 10-15 kts early this morning will subside to 10 kt or less by early Sunday afternoon. Benign marine conditions continue into early Thursday with winds mainly under 15 kts out of the west to southwest. Southwest flow starts to increase late in the new week, but confidence is low on when this increase will occur. Could be as early as Thursday, but may be delayed until Friday. Will depend on the evolution and timing of the next system. Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters on Sunday will gradually subside through Monday into the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while offshore-directed wind waves are secondary. Seas will start to build late in the week in response to increasing winds, although exact timing of the increase remains uncertain. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284917 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1237 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably cool this weekend through the middle of next week. 2) The weather pattern potentially becomes more amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning follow by a brief surge of colder air. && .DISCUSSION... As of 220 PM EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonably cool this weekend through the middle of next week. An upper low remains centered over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Surface high pressure over central US is slowly pushing towards the area over the next few days. Cold air advection behind yesterday`s cold front has pushed temperatures back to near normal with temperatures currently in the lower 60s. High temperatures Sunday will be similar in the lower to mid 60s. There will be a slight warm up Mon thru Wed as high pressure centers over the area with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F. Dry weather continues with mostly sunny skies through at least mid week. Low temperatures late tonight/early Sunday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s along the coast. Patchy frost is possible, particularly in the Piedmont and counties that have already ended their growing season, but there could be some frost into interior portions of S-central VA and NE NC as well. Given dewpoints expected in the mid 30s, light NW winds, and some cloud cover over the southern half of the area overnight, have raised low temperatures up to 5 degrees across the area. Based on model ensembles and hi-res guidance, the NBM low temperatures are an outlier. With this, no frost advisories have been issued for counties where the growing season continues. KEY MESSAGE 2...The weather pattern potentially becomes more amplified later next week with low-end rain chances returning followed by a brief surge of colder air. The 12z/07 EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all continue to depict an anomalous 500mb trough developing across the southeast and Mid- Atlantic by Thurs-Fri of next week. Low-end rain chances return later Thursday/Thursday night with the potential for developing low pressure ahead of the deepening trough. Confidence in details at this forecast range is low, but the GEFS and EPS show a 40-80% chance of at least 0.01" of rain with the highest chances in the N and a 10-20% chance of at least 0.5" of rain. A surge of colder air follows with below average temperatures favored by Friday-Saturday of next week. With this trend, there is a chance this could end the growing season for the remaining areas. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1235 AM EST Sunday... High pressure was centered SW of the region as of 06z. VFR with some CI approaching from the WSW and a very light W to NW wind. VFR conditions prevail today and tonight as high pressure remains over the region. A light NW wind through the morning will become SW 5-10kt by this aftn and evening, before becoming light out of the W late tonight ahead of a dry cold front. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into the middle of next week. A breezy NW wind develops behind the aforementioned dry cold front Monday, especially at SBY. A stronger cold front approaches from the W Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 235 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Another period of elevated NW flow is expected tonight into Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches. Bay and nearshore coastal waters. - Additional advisories likely needed Monday across northern waters. Sfc high pressure centered over the Mississippi River valley is building west into the local region behind yesterday`s cold front. Aloft, strong low pressure is situated over New England with the attending trough dipping down the east coast. As a result, cooler and drier air has been advecting into the local area since last night. The initial surge of winds has diminished some with latest obs showing NW winds of 10-15kt over most marine zones, though 15- 20kt lingers across the upper bay and northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the middle/upper bay and the nearshore coastal waters to cover these winds and seas up to 5ft. Another surge in winds across the entire bay and coastal waters is expected overnight as the trough axis aloft pivots through the region. NW winds will pick back up to 15-20kt with gusts up to 30kt possible (~15kt, gusts to 20kt in the rivers). The existing SCAs already extend through tomorrow morning and the lower bay was added for the overnight period as well. Winds shift to the W then SW tomorrow and diminish to 10-15kt across all marine zones. This will allow seas to fall back to 3-4ft as well, so a break from advisories is expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. Another cold front slides across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday turning winds back to the NW. This front doesn`t look quite as strong as yesterday`s, but will be enough for winds to build back to 15-20kt for waters north of New Point Comfort and Cape Charles. Additional advisories are likely for at least the northern bay zones Monday. Conditions then look to be sub- advisory through Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1284916 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1224 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - A weakening frontal boundary could bring isolated showers to portions of the region tonight. - Minor coastal flooding will continue around periods of high tide through the weekend. - Mainly dry conditions will develop across most of the region during the early portion of the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 346 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 Overall forecast remains on track, with mostly dry conditons and light northerly winds persisting across South Florida. Recent ACARs soundings from KMIA show a pretty dry environment (with PWATs of around 1.3 inches) and subsidence aloft keeping rain chances below 15% for the rest of the afternoon and evening. As a weakening cool front continues to push south across the peninsula over the next few hours, there is low confidence that it may be able to force out an isolated shower or two. Lows for tonight should dip into the mid 60s for interior South Florida and into the low 70s along the coasts and metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 A rather potent mid level low/trough complex will push through a good portion of the Eastern Seaboard today into tonight before gradually pushing off into the western Atlantic on Sunday. While the trough axis will remain well to the north of the region, it will suppress the mid level ridging to the southeast which will result in mostly zonal flow over South Florida this afternoon and through the rest of the weekend. At the surface, a very weak frontal boundary currently over Central Florida will continue to slowly push southeastward through the region this afternoon before stalling over the southern portion of the area or over the Keys heading into the second half of the weekend. Out ahead of the front, some lower level moisture will gradually pool over the region as PWAT values gradually increase and will generally range between 1.3 and 1.6 inches this afternoon through Sunday. Most of this moisture will be in the lower levels of the atmospheric column as the latest forecast model soundings show a pretty good swath of drier air remaining in place across the mid levels during this time frame. The weakening frontal boundary moving into the region combined with an increase in lower level moisture could be enough to spark off some scattered shower activity this afternoon out ahead of the front. With a good amount of drier air in place across the mid levels, thunderstorm chances will remain very low as the front pushes into the region and continues to weaken. However, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out over the southern areas and the Atlantic waters where instability may be slightly higher. As the front loses its forward momentum and gradually stalls out on Sunday, there will still be enough lower level moisture to keep just a slight chance of showers in place mainly over the east coast as well as the Atlantic waters. However, most of the region will remain dry through a good portion of the day. High temperatures for today will generally remain in the lower to mid 80s along and north of Alligator Alley as well as the east coast metro areas. High temperatures could rise into the upper 80s across interior portions south of Alligator Alley. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most of the region, however, some interior locations south of Alligator Alley in Southwest Florida could see upper 80s once again on Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 For the early portion of the week, mid level zonal flow gradually gives way to some weak mid level ridging through Monday and into Tuesday. At the surface, what is left of the very weak frontal boundary washes out as high pressure builds in from the north. This will allow for a light to moderate east northeasterly wind flow to remain in place during this time frame. With this area of high pressure in place, combined with the weak mid level ridging aloft, there will be enough subsidence taking place to support mostly dry conditions across the region on Monday and Tuesday. However, with the east northeasterly wind flow continuing, some lower level moisture may still linger over the region which could keep a very low end chance of showers in place mainly over the Atlantic waters and east coast. Any shower that does develop will be low topped and rather short lived. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will generally range from the lower 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s over Southwest Florida. Heading into the middle of the week, the weather pattern will start to change a bit as a mid level shortwave pushes across the Gulf Coast states and into Northern Florida on Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure will gradually start to push further east into the western Atlantic. The latest global and ensemble guidance remain in relatively good agreement keeping this shortwave off to the north of the region, however, it will start to draw in some deeper moisture over South Florida. This could increase the chances for showers during the middle of the week especially during the afternoon hours during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally range from the lower 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region and the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast towards the end of the week rises as the latest global and ensemble guidance show a deeper trough pushing over the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. At the surface, guidance is showing signs of a developing area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region during the Thursday and Friday time frame. The cold front associated with this system could move into and pass through the region towards the end of the week which would increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. However, guidance still does remain in disagreement in regards to exact timing of the front as well as its intensity as it approaches the region towards the end of the week. With the front nearby, the latest forecast increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week. Behind the front, there will be the potential for a much cooler air mass to push into the region for the following weekend. More to follow on this as the details become clearer as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light winds will remain in place across all terminals through the morning hours. These winds will then become NE after 17z and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the NW after 18z as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 Light to gentle north northeasterly winds will remain in place across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds will become moderate out of the north northwest this afternoon. Winds become more northeasterly across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 1 to 3 feet through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered showers will be possible mainly over the Atlantic waters this afternoon and tonight as a weakening frontal boundary pushes through the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the upcoming weekend. Minor coastal flooding will also remain possible along the east coast during each high tide cycle this weekend due to the King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 West Kendall 85 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 85 71 85 72 / 10 10 10 10 Homestead 84 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 83 71 82 72 / 10 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 85 70 85 71 / 10 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 84 69 83 70 / 0 0 10 0 Boca Raton 83 70 82 71 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284915 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1114 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 - Increasing potential for some localized flooding, favoring the northern ranchlands especially Sunday night. A Flood Watch is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks County for through Monday morning. - Elsewhere, beneficial rains for most of the Rio Grande Valley, but potential for isolated flash floods continues through Monday morning. - Surf becoming more dangerous through Monday, with a High Risk of Rip Currents forecast to develop Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Enhanced forcing across Deep South Texas Sunday and Monday will support widespread showers across the area, with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms mixed in. Rainfall accumulations are generally forecast to range from 1 to 3 inches Sunday, with isolated pockets of 4-5 inches possible, primarily across western portions of the CWA. All of Deep South Texas remains under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Sunday. A Flood Watch is in effect for Starr, Zapata, Brooks, and Jim Hogg counties through Monday morning. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast to occur Monday, with the heaviest rain rates likely to occur Monday morning, with the highest rainfall amounts likely to occur along and west of I-69C. This will continue to support the potential for flash flooding Monday morning. The showers are forecast to shift further east through the day Monday. All of Deep South Texas is under Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Monday. Rain chances are forecast to decrease Monday night, with daily low (20-30%) rain chances lingering through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 VFR to MVFR ceilings are forecast overnight as showers move into the area and begin impacting the TAF sites. MFE has the highest probabilities for MVFR to IFR ceilings through much of the day Sunday, with IFR conditions most likely around sunrise. Widespread showers are forecast through much of the day Sunday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible mid morning through early afternoon. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds are forecast through the afternoon and into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Winds and seas are forecast to increase early Sunday morning, likely resulting in adverse to hazardous conditions along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday morning. Conditions are forecast to begin improving afternoon, with generally favorable winds and seas forecast to continue through the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 72 81 72 79 / 30 80 50 90 HARLINGEN 70 79 69 78 / 40 80 60 100 MCALLEN 72 82 70 78 / 70 90 90 100 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 77 64 74 / 90 80 100 100 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 79 73 76 / 50 80 50 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 80 70 78 / 50 80 50 90 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ248>250-252. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284914 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1117 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers possible tonight and tomorrow, mainly west of I-45. - Increasing east and northeast winds and building seas tonight into Sunday across the marine areas. - Cooler weather possible by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 453 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 It is a comfortable Saturday afternoon with temperatures running in the 70s to low 80s, light northeast to east winds and low humidity. Per visible satellite imagery we can see mid to high clouds migrating east into our region, with broken to overcast coverage likely reaching our region from the southwest late this afternoon/early evening. Increased cloud cover is associated to a developing coastal trough along the middle/lower TX coast and vorticity maxima associated to an approaching upper low currently centered over Baja California/northwest Mexico. As the upper low moves east-northeast across Texas and interacts with the surface trough, rain chances will be on the increase, particularly for central and south Texas. Forecast soundings show a gradual increase in low to mid level moisture from the southwest later tonight into Sunday, resulting in increasing rain chances. The main question remains how far east these showers will reach the region. As of now, better forcing and moisture look to remain confined to areas along and west of I-45, particularly for our southwestern counties. Latest Hi-res guidance keeps this trend, with the RRFS solutions even drier than the HRRR, suggesting showers as early as 6 am Sunday. The HRRR brings some light activity overnight. Overall, expect rain showers, moderate at times for areas west of I-10 through the day, with the best chances in our southwestern counties. Continued chances for very light rain/sprinkles (10-20%)will persist for areas east of I- 45 through early evening. Clouds and light rain chances will continue in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned upper low moves across TX. Again, best rain chances will remain roughly for our western areas and south of I-10. Lingering impulses of energy and surface convergence associated with an approaching cold front will result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by midweek. In the wake of the front, Mid to upper ridge builds in, leading to drier conditions through the weekend. Medium range guidance brings a surge of cooler air due to a deepening low over the northeastern CONUS during this time-frame. GFS/ECMWF show 850mb temperatures dropping into the 5 to 10C Friday into the weekend, especially for our northeastern counties. Confidence in how far south this cooler airmass will sink up remains low to moderate. For now, will keep temperatures as NBM suggests with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s and low 50s (Houston metro and coast). Will continue to monitor temperatures and adjust accordingly in the coming days. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 Since the previous update, environmental and model data trends are suggesting a somewhat more moist atmosphere than earlier expected. Widespread SHRA in central TX is slowly drifting in our direction tonight. It will encounter some dry air, but perhaps a little less than previous forecasted. For now, we`ve added VCSH to the CLL TAF, while adding PROB30s for -SHRA for CLL, IAH, HOU, and SGR. Any rain should be light. But we cannot rule out cig/vis drops in any -SHRA. We`ll watch data trends closely, making amendments when warranted. && .MARINE... Issued at 453 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026 A coastal trough developing off the lower and middle Texas coast will result in moderate east to northeast winds this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to reach Advisory level overnight into late Sunday, with seas up to 5 to 6 ft. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from midnight through late Sunday for all waters and Matagorda Bay. Winds over Galveston Bay will remain a tad below criteria, but will continue to monitor trends later tonight for a possible inclusion to the Advisory. Light to moderate northeast winds can be expected on Monday, becoming light and from the ESE, through midweek. Light to moderate offshore flow returns Thursday with the next FROPA. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 57 66 55 / 10 30 50 20 Houston (IAH) 80 59 69 58 / 0 10 30 30 Galveston (GLS) 77 66 71 64 / 0 0 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ330. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ350- 370. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ355-375. && $$ |
| #1284913 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1217 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Dry weather will persist into next week with seasonably cool overnight lows and mild afternoon highs. A reinforcing blast of cold air is expected for the end of the week into next weekend with below average temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 No unscheduled forecast update is needed this evening. The cooler and drier weather is tracking well with the existing forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant feature with a dry airmass in place and a few passing high clouds. Lows tonight will be cooler than recent nights as a cooler airmass advects into the area with light northerly surface flow. Low will generally range from around 40 in the cooler locations of southeast Alabama to around 50 in the southeast big bend. High temperatures on Sunday will generally range from the low to mid 70s across southeast Alabama to the upper 70s to near 80 across the southeast big bend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 The theme of dry weather with cool mornings and mild afternoons will continue through the first part of the week. For the middle to latter part of the week, a deep upper level trough is expected to dig across the Ohio Valley and across the eastern seaboard. This will bring a cold front through our area with a reinforcing blast of cold air. Lows are expected to dip into the 30s across portions of the area by the end of the week into next weekend. There are some model differences with the rain potential with the 12z GFS digging the upper trough farther west than the 12z ECMWF. This farther west solution would open up better moisture return and a better chance of rain in the GFS`s world. Overall, the current model consensus via the NBM is for a slight chance of rain around Thursday, but trends will be monitored. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with a light northerly to northeasterly breeze. We continue to monitor the potential for fog in and around KVLD early Sunday morning. An amendment may be necessary for them depending on how the fog situation evolves after 09Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 Light to moderate offshore winds with dry weather are expected to last into mid week. Later in the week, northwest winds are expected to increase to advisory-level as a cold front pushes through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 Northerly transport winds are expected to continue this weekend, veering a bit to northeasterly on Sunday. A dry airmass will also continue. RH values are expected to remain above critical on Sunday afternoon, but there is a medium chance that RH values will dip below critical levels across our northern counties on Monday afternoon. Winds will remain light. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 No hydrological concerns are expected through the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 51 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 50 76 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 44 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 45 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 53 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284912 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 - Quiet, seasonable weather continues through the middle of this week. A strong cold front is forecast to reach Central Florida late Thursday or Friday, but only light rainfall is currently expected. The coolest air of the autumn season is increasingly likely next weekend. - A long-period swell is causing a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. Please stay out of the ocean. - Extensive flooding continues along the St. Johns River due to exceptional rainfall in the upper reaches of the basin earlier this week. Heed the advice of local officials. The latest river forecasts are available at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- An impressive mid-level shortwave over New England drove a weak cold front through Florida on Saturday. This evening`s Cape Canaveral sounding revealed substantial mid-level drying behind the front, with 700-mb relative humidity falling to just 4%. A broad area of high pressure extends from West Virginia to Oklahoma. Winds have turned northwesterly behind the front but will quickly turn onshore as the high remains north of Central Florida over the next couple of days. The upper-level pattern across CONUS is quasi-zonal with split-flow characteristics. A weak subtropical jet extends from Mexico to N Florida, and the polar jet runs from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes with multiple shortwaves embedded within it. Through early Wednesday, we anticipate little change to this rather progressive, low-amplitude pattern. Total moisture values should average near to just below normal with boundary-layer temps slightly above normal. Overall, this portends high confidence in low impacts for Florida and surrounding areas. While the overall longwave pattern remains relatively stationary over the next 7-9 days, substantial amplification is favored in the latest ensemble guidance. A series of shortwaves embedded within a 150-200 kt Pacific jet is forecast to deepen the trough over the Eastern Pacific by Wednesday; in response, pronounced downstream ridging should build across the Intermountain West. This configuration, coupled with a developing -NAO blocking pattern over Greenland, will favor the amplification of a deep trough across the Eastern U.S. beginning Thursday. Cluster analysis of the 07/12Z ensemble suite revealed increasing disagreement with timing and depth of the trough by Friday and Saturday. Before then, there is generally good agreement that a cold front will pass through the state sometime between late Thursday and early Friday. A weak subtropical jet streak may provide additional upper-level support for precipitation along the boundary. However, recent runs have trended somewhat drier. Well north of Florida, a nor`easter may form on the eastern flank of the trough, enhancing northerly winds and cold air advection behind the front. Guidance slightly favors a more progressive scenario with height rises commencing next Sunday. By that time, continental high pressure should be centered roughly over the Ohio Valley, with winds turning onshore shortly afterward. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Wednesday... This is the tranquil, pleasant stretch of the forecast. Rain chances remain below 20% for much of the period. Near-seasonable temperatures are forecast with intervals of cloud cover mixed with sunshine. Each day, highs will range from 80-85 with lows mainly in the 60s, except some upper 50s north of Orlando. A lingering easterly long-period swell persists in the Atlantic, so the high risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue through at least Monday. Additionally, minor coastal flooding is possible mainly near and south of St. Lucie Inlet during the morning high tide cycles through early this week. Thursday - Next Weekend... Clouds should increase Thursday as a stream of moisture precedes an approaching cold front. Thursday`s highs in the upper 70s to near 80 will be the warmest of this period. By Thursday night, the cold front is expected to enter Central Florida before quickly passing south of here on Friday. Rainfall potential has trended downward. Nearly 75% of grand ensemble members produce little to no rainfall, or only light, scattered showers along the front. Any lingering showers on Friday should exit the area as much drier and cooler air drifts over the state as the weekend arrives. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s as we end the work week. The coolest day appears to be Saturday, when much of the area is forecast to only reach the mid/upper 60s. Sunday looks a touch warmer, in the upper 60s to mid 70s. While substantial uncertainty remains regarding the amplitude and progression of the upper-level trough, confidence is increasing that the coolest temperatures of the autumn season will arrive next weekend. On the coolest morning (next Sunday), we are forecasting mid to upper 40s over much of the interior, with low/mid 50s along the coast. Our cooler scenario (10% chance of occurrence) has trended slightly colder for next Sunday, ranging from the low to mid 40s over the interior to the upper 40s and low 50s along the coast. Accounting for wind chill, there is a 10-30% chance of apparent temperatures in the upper 30s both next Saturday and Sunday mornings roughly from Orlando and points northward. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 A sprawling area of high pressure will hold nearly stationary over the Mid-South through early this week before dropping toward Florida by Wednesday. Tranquil conditions are expected, but a lingering long-period easterly swell will cause occasionally poor boating conditions, especially near inlets and offshore. Low pressure is forecast to develop and move toward the Mid-Atlantic by late Thursday, dragging a strong cold front toward the area by Thursday night or early Friday. Light winds becoming NE 5-12 kt each afternoon today and Monday. Winds then become light on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore but up to 6 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet through Tuesday. Seas decrease to 2-4 ft all areas by Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 Mainly VFR conds continue over the next 24hrs. Low risk early in the period for patchy fog near/west of MCO and will monitor. Light NW/N winds will transition onshore (5-10 kts) along the coast in the afternoon with this trend slowly pushing inland. Winds will be variable at times over the interior this afternoon with a weak pgrad in place. Winds fall back to L/V to calm this evening and overnight. Perhaps a slightly better chance for VSBY reductions due to fog overnight Sun into Mon morning across interior terminals, but confidence remains low overall. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1215 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 River flood warnings remain in effect for all St. Johns River forecast points (Cocoa, Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor). River levels are forecast to continue to slowly rise over the next several days through Minor and in some cases Moderate Flood stage. The river at Cocoa (COCF1) is forecast to reach Major flood stage either today or Monday with Geneva (GENF1) approaching Major flood stage towards the middle of the week. River forecasts out five days are issued twice daily by the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center in collaboration with NWS Melbourne and are available online at water.noaa.gov/wfo/MLB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 63 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 82 64 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 81 66 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 83 66 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 63 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 82 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1284909 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 08.Nov.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1209 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches - Patchy Dense Fog Possible Sunday and Monday Mornings at. Local visibility of 1/4 mile possible at times && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Areas of dense fog possible this morning and again late tonight - Elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches Weak high pressure will settle to the NE of the local area, while a coastal trough will set up over the NE FL coastal waters. Mostly dry conditions are expected, except for the development of scattered showers over the NE FL offshore coastal waters closer to the trough axis through tonight. A brief surge of breezy Northeast winds is expected to develop today along the NE FL/SE GA coastal areas and along the I-95 corridor with NE winds increasing to 15G25 mph late this morning and continuing this afternoon, before fading around sunset. Temps will remain slightly above normal with highs near 80F over inland areas, while the onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coastal areas with highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will remain cooler over inland areas with upper 40s/lower 50s over inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley of inland North FL, with mid/upper 50s elsewhere except for lower 60s along the Atlantic beaches. Main weather impact in the near term will be the potential for low cloud and dense fog development over inland areas, both this morning and again late tonight. Dense fog advisories may be required, with best chances for late tonight/early Monday morning over inland areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected. Dry weather conditions with partly cloudy skies will persist through the beginning of the week with prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the southwest before midweek as high pressure ridging to the north moves off to the northeast. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the into the mid to upper 40s for southeast Georgia and in the upper and lower to mid 50s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Breezy conditions through end the week. - Chilly conditions develop next weekend. Chances for showers will increase on Thursday, ahead of the advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. PWAT values will rise slightly prior to the frontal passage as more moist air from out of the gulf advects in, however lingering drier air over the area is expected to inhibit convective developments with isolated to scattered showers being more likely over northeast Florida. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist through the end of the week, with winds becoming more mild following the fropa. Clearing skies and dry weather will be in place by the weekend as high pressure and cold dry air settles in over the forecast area. Temperatures will be near and slightly above the seasonal average for midweek, dropping to be below average by the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Overall, VFR conditions are expected, with some low potential for MVFR to IFR visibilities at the inland sites (VQQ and GNV), but also at SSI along the SE GA coast in the early morning hours. Winds will remain calm overnight, picking up to the 5-10 knot range after sunrise Sunday. Guidance is suggesting better chances for possible LIFR conditions setting up for late Sunday Night/Monday morning in the 06-12Z Monday time frame, mainly for the inland TAF sites of JAX/GNV/VQQ. && .MARINE... Winds will become light northeasterly this morning before high pressure building eastward in to the Carolinas elevates northeast winds to near caution levels this afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. Strong cold frontal passage on Thursday will bring offshore flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and Saturday. Rip Currents: High risk of Rip Currents Today for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches due to lingering long period swells impacting the local beaches along with onshore flow. Light winds and decreasing swells will keep Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND SOUTHEAST GA - Monday Afternoon And Tuesday Afternoon Conditions will trend drier through the weekend and into early next week with light to breezy northwesterly winds today gradually veering northeasterly through Sunday. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for the next several days. Though afternoon humidities will trend lower Monday and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through the next week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Initially patchy fog forming overnight and becoming more dense by the early morning hours today and Monday, with areas of dense fog expected to be more widespread on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 78 49 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 58 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 56 79 52 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 79 61 77 59 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 82 56 81 54 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 81 56 81 56 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
