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| #1262513 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 503 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased in severe weather potential for FROPA MON. Have added severe tstorm wording to Wx Grids from late MON morning into the first half of MON night. Strengthening onshore flow today and then even stronger Serly flow on MON has prompted the issuance of a high surf advisory for Eastern Carteret through Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands from this afternoon into Monday night. Have converted most of the active gale watches to warnings as well as added SCAs for smaller inside waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening behind a warm front lifting through the area late. 2) A strong cold front MON evening brings strengthening winds and chance of severe thunderstorms. 3) Return to chilly weather behind the front through mid-week. Mins approaching freezing Tues morning and at or below freezing Tue night/Wed morning. Marine...Small craft conditions in place through SUN with gale force winds impacting coastal waters and Pamlico Sound MON. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak low pressure system will develop just off the FL/GA coast this morning and gradually lift Nward with this low and its associated warm front reaching the Carolinas this evening and reaching the VA border tonight. This will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms and strengthening onshore flow starting this afternoon. This morning, light isentropic lift overspreads the area leading to the potential for some light rain across portions of the Inner Banks and Crystal Coast early. Showers and storms becoming more widespread second half of the day as the low and front near and track across ENC, warm sectoring the FA and increasing dynamic forcing. As the warm front lifts Nward, Eerly winds will veer to a SEerly and eventually Serly overnight, allowing for warm moist air to overspread the region, increasing instability. HiRes CAMs continue to show MUCAPE values building to ~500-750 J/kg overnight. This, combined with deep layer shear values around 25-35 kts and 0-1km SRH values ~100m2s2, the environment will be marginally favorable for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, especially near the coast overnight. Strongest storms could be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail, though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out either as any potential waterspout that develops across the coastal waters could reach the coast and move inland. The strengthening onshore flow this afternoon and evening will rapidly build seas, leading to the issuance of a high surf advisory. Beaches susceptible to a SEerly wave direction could be at risk for wave runup issues and maybe ocean overwash for particularly vulnerable locations. KEY MESSAGE 2...Impressive upper level trough will dig across the Plains on today, becoming more negatively tilted as it moves Eward across the MS River Valley tomorrow. Latest forecasts suggests the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day. First, prefrontal SFC trough sharpens early as LLJ strengthens, opening the door for organized convection starting early MON morning. The environment will remain very favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms as instability builds with MLCAPE values between 500-1500 J/kg, deep layer shear values of 60+ kts, and SRH values increasing to 200+ m2s2 Mon afternoon. As a result, all severe weather hazards will be possible. Prefrontal supercells are not out of the realm of possibility, with any cells with even moderate vertical development capable of bringing the stout winds aloft down to the SFC. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes being the most likely threat, while small hail being a lesser threat within the strongest storms. The second round of precip will be an organized line of showers and thunderstorms expected with the front MON evening into MON night. This line will lead to the potential for more damaging winds and a QLCS tor threat. Morning shower/tstorm activity and cloud cover could inhibit the amount of instability that builds across the FA Mon, but even meager instability could still produce strong to severe tstorms given the strong dynamics in place. Because of all this, SPC has outlooked all of ENC in an Enhanced risk (3/5) for severe weather with a a Moderate (4/5) risk just to our W from SC Nward into VA, where the greatest chance dynamics will coincide with peak heating, and therefore greatest chance for higher instability values to feed storms and potential supercell development. AI NWP forecasts remain quite bullish on severe potential. The strong pressure gradient and stout LLJ ahead of the front will lead to a strong background wind-field. A wind advisory may be needed for areas along the Crystal Coast, Down East, and OBX MON evening into MON night. High Surf Advisory remains in effect through MON with beach erosion and ocean overwash remaining a concern for vulnerable locations susceptible to Serly wave directions. KEY MESSAGE 3...The initial blast of CAA directly behind MON`s FROPA will lead to MinTs approaching freezing across the Coastal Plain. A second reinforcing cold front will cross ENC early Tue with cold high pressure filling behind it. The afternoon`s CAA and the center of the high settling almost directly overhead late Tue night/early Wed will lead to clearing skies and calming winds. These conditions will prime the FA for strong radiational cooling effects, leading to MinTs in the upper 20s for the majority of the mainland area, mid to upper 30s DownEast and OBX. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions currently across ENC rtes under mainly clear skies, although STCU has just begun to develop along the coast. HiRes guidance shows the STCU expanding and lifting across rtes through the morning hours. Current cloud bases are around 4k ft but HREF guidance shows a 20-40% chance for MVFR cigs this morning. A better chance for sub-VFR cigs (up to 70-90%) develops this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts across the area bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability and shear increases this afternoon and tonight and could see isolated storms producing damaging wind gust or a brief tornado. SPC has the region in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms late today and tonight. Could see a period of VFR conditions develop after midnight but expect sub-VFR conditions return Monday morning. Light Ely winds this morning will become SE and increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Winds become Sly around 10-25 kt this evening and will see LLWS concerns develop this evening as a strong low level jet develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook...A strong frontal system will impact ENC Monday bringing gusty winds and periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe with SPC placing ENC in an enhanced risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms with a moderate risk (level 4/5) across the piedmont and western coastal plain. Thunderstorms will have the capability of producing damaging wind gusts, isolated strong tornadoes and large hail. Pred VFR conditions will return by late Monday night and continuing through mid week. && .MARINE... ESEerly winds currently 15-20kt offshore, 10-15kt inside, with seas generally 2-3ft@4-6sec. These winds strengthen through the morning as a warm front approaches from the S and lifts Nward through area waters this afternoon and evening. A strong cold front crosses from W to E late MON/early TUE. Winds gradually veer to become more SEerly while strengthening through the day. Winds peak Mon night, 15-25G30kt over smaller inland waters, 20-30G35kt larger sounds, with strongest winds over GStream waters 30-35G40-45kt. Have upgraded all but one gale watch to gale warnings starting MON, with a SCA conditions expected across all coastal waters through the day today. The lone gale watch remains over Nern coastal waters, where gale force gust potential is more marginal. Given the onset is later in the day MON, opted to keep the watch here to give dayshift another cut at the wind forecast today. Remaining inland rivers and sounds have had SCAs introduced for the strengthening Serly flow ahead of FROPA late MON. Showers and tstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be possible from this afternoon through Mon night until drier air arrives behind Mon night`s front and Tue`s reinforcing front. Waterspout threat in place for cells along and near the warm front lifting forward this afternoon and evening. Supercell potential increases overnight tonight and into MON, increasing risk of waterspouts. Any of MON`s storms with even modest vertical development could bring strong winds aloft down to the SFC. Strongest cells could also produce small hail. Outlook: Winds become N-Nerly mid-week behind TUE`s reinforcing front remaining generally 10-15G20kt through the remainder of the work week. Sea-driven SCAs likely to remain active into Wed morning, continuing to improve through late week. Low pressure system well offshore lateweek expected to increase swell and could further the need for extending SCAs that follow the Gales MON and TUE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 2 PM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. Gale Warning from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156- 158. && $$ |
| #1262512 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 325 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 249 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Key Messages: * A heat spike with record to near record-breaking, triple digit temperatures are expected today; A Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is expected across much of the region today. * A strong cold front Sunday night will result in a 40-50F degree temperature drop from Sunday afternoon`s highs to Monday morning`s lows. * Strong northerly winds 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 45-60 mph is expected Sunday night into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday night into Monday. * A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday due to the combination of low relative humidity values and strong northerly winds. * Strong northerly winds will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions today through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Confidence has increased that gale conditions will likely develop along the lower Texas coast late Sunday night into Monday in the wake of the strong cold front. In fact, the latest NAM indicates a long duration of sustain gale winds over the Gulf waters late Sunday night. Therefore, will upgrade the previous Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters starting at 10 PM this evening. Have upgraded the previously issued Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning as confidence continues to increase early this morning that elevated to critical fire weather conditions will develop across much of Deep South Texas, except for the islands, late Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A multi-faceted, multi-hazard weather event that includes a heightened threat for wildfires along with multiple coastal/marine hazards and high winds is expected to take place in the next 24-48 hours of Sunday evening through Monday. Following a heat spike that will include record to near record-breaking temperatures with many areas topping the century mark, ultimately resulting in Moderate (Level 2 of 5) Heat Risk on Sunday, a powerful cold front will generate drastic and significant changes to the weather pattern that includes a 40-50F degree plunge in temperatures from Sunday`s highs to Monday morning`s lows. The latest GOES-19 Infrared satellite imagery depicted a mainly clear sky across Deep South Texas with some low level streamer clouds moving inland near the coast. Despite the decreased mixing heights, south-southeasterly winds will remain elevated through tonight due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Warm air advection (WAA) from the southerly winds will help to keep overnight low temperatures mild, slightly above normal with values in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to the upper 60s/near 70F degrees along the Rio Grande Valley. During the day on Sunday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, a dryline will push through the western half of the area, triggering a wind shift out of the west. Strong compressional heating from westerly winds near the sfc and aloft will exacerbate the heating across the region. This will result in a heat spike with high temperatures surging into the mid 90s to lower 100s. These values, which will be well above normal on the order of 15-20F+ degrees will be at record to near record-breaking levels (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). Elevated fire weather concerns are possible on Sunday for at least parts of the area. Behind the dryline, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20s and teens. Winds look to hold just below criteria. That said, trends need to be monitored on Sunday for a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) across at least parts of the area. Significant and drastic weather changes are then expected to take place Sunday evening/night. Numerous global forecast models and ensembles continue to show an anomalously strong and broad 591-594 mb mid-upper Sonoran ridge/heat dome developing over the Southwestern U.S. Sunday evening. This enormous and strong weather feature will result in an early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S. Meanwhile, on the east or leeward side of this feature, northwest winds aloft will help to drive a powerful sfc cold front southward through the central U.S. This cold front is associated with a maturing and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone that will bring a combination of winter weather including blizzard conditions to the northern Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest to severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to parts of the Midwest and South Sunday afternoon/evening. Behind this cold front is a modified Arctic airmass that will envelope much of the country, particularly the interior U.S. Sunday evening through Monday morning, this cold front is expected to sweep through all of Texas including Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Following the cold fropa, temperatures a expected to sharply fall. After a day on record to near record-breaking, triple digit heating, a 40-50F degree drop off in temperature is expected to occur behind the cold front by Monday morning with overnight lows progged to be in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands to the mid-upper 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. In addition to the sharp drop off in temps, a tight pressure and thermal gradient will result in strong, potentially damaging winds developing Sunday night and especially on Monday. Northerly winds 25- 35 mph gusting as high as 50 mph is expected. There could be instances where winds gusts as high as 50-60 mph on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties from 10 PM CDT Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday. We will keep close watch on forecast trends to see if we need to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Regardless, it`s possible that wind gusts could at times in spots exceed 55 mph on Monday. The combination of strong winds and low relative humidity values behind the front will trigger critical fire weather risks on Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). In addition to the fire weather concerns on Monday, strong winds Sunday through Monday will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions (see MARINE SECTION for more details). With a 1020-1030 mb modified Arctic airmass in place over the southern Plains and a full cold air advection (CAA) regime in place, high temperatures on Monday will be cooler or below normal levels with values holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday night will be the coldest of the period with the help of adequate radiational cooling amid clear skies. Overnight lows Monday night are progged to be in the 40s most places to 50s along/near the coast. Beyond Monday, a warming trend will take place through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning to unseasonably warm levels by Thursday of next week. Dry/rain-free conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Moderate to gusty south winds and patchy low stratus prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Will include TEMPO wording at local terminals due to periodic low stratus with some prevailing MVFR around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Breezy southeast to south winds will persist this morning into the afternoon. A dryline/surface boundary will approach from the west this afternoon resulting in a wind shift and lighter winds at MFE. Light to moderate winds late this evening will increase late in the period as a strong cold front approaches the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 7 AM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Sunday night due to strong southerly winds sustained at or above 20 kts. A Gale Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters Sunday night through Monday evening for gusts topping 40 kts. Monday night, marine conditions look to improve. Wednesday through next weekend, favorable marine conditions can be expected with low to moderate winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Sunday for at least parts of the area. A dryline is expected to pass through the western half of the region Sunday afternoon. Westerly winds will trigger strong compressional heating and a heat spike on Sunday. The combination of hot temperatures, an ongoing drought, low relative humidity values, and at times breezy winds could result in an elevated risk for fire danger on Sunday. The wildcard will be how strong the winds get. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island for Monday due to a critical risk for fire danger. A strong cold front will result in strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday. Strong winds combined with low relative humidity values will result in a critical wildfire risk on Monday. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is likely. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Strong compressional heating on westerly winds behind a dryline will result in a heat spike with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s most places. This will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Sunday. Below are the record high temperatures for March 15th. Record Highs for March 15: Brownsville (BRO): 98F degrees in 2008 Harlingen (HRL): 100F degrees in 2008 McAllen (MFE): 103F degrees in 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 59 66 53 / 0 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 52 67 46 / 0 20 10 0 MCALLEN 102 55 71 50 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 54 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 60 65 58 / 0 30 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 57 67 53 / 0 20 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ248>255-351-353>355. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1262511 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Potential for significant severe weather continues to increase ahead of a strong cold front Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Moderate Risk (level 4/5), and has increased probabilities to 60% for wind and 15% for tornadoes across much of the area. Gale Watches have been issued for most local waters on Monday ahead of and just behind the strong cold frontal passage. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)...Showers and storms prevail Monday, following increasing moisture and shower chances late today into tonight as a warm front lifts north. The greatest threat for severe storms will be from mid to late morning through the early evening hours. SPC has introduced a Moderate Risk(level 4/5) for western and central portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) in place for the rest of the area (except eastern portions of the Eastern Shore with a Slight Risk). 2) Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains dry, with seasonable temperatures returning late in the week. .DISCUSSION... As of 355 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms prevail Monday, following increasing moisture and shower chances late today into tonight as a warm front lifts north. The greatest threat for severe storms will be from mid to late morning through the early evening hours. SPC has introduced a Moderate Risk(level 4/5) for western and central portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) in place for the rest of the area (except eastern portions of the Eastern Shore with a Slight Risk). High pressure is noted just NE of the local area early this morning with rapidly deepening surface low pressure over the central Plains. Aloft, an amplifying upper trough is digging into the northern Plains with a strong jet streak poised to round the base of the trough. This jet streak will serve to further amplify the trough and deepen the surface low as it tracks from the plains into the Midwest today. Southeasterly/onshore flow will prevail through most of the day today as high pressure slowly drifts farther offshore. Clouds will thicken and lower through the day ahead of an expected warm frontal passage tonight. Temperatures will still rise into the 60s for most of the area with some low 70s possible across the southern counties and some upper 50s for coastal portions of the Eastern Shore. Enough moisture convergence and lift makes it into far southern VA and NE NC by mid-late afternoon for some low-end shower chances. Shower chances increase more significantly in the evening as the deeper moisture lifts north. Forecast soundings show little in the way sfc-based instability until after ~09Z/5AM Monday which will be confined to the far S. Instability aloft does increase earlier, and MUCAPE of 200-400 J/Kg spreads north after midnight, which could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for strong storms, mainly for the early morning hours of Monday behind the warm frontal passage. Wind fields aloft will be increasing during this time and some stronger cells are possible despite the unfavorable diurnal timing. Temperatures will be quite mild tonight with lows only falling into the 50s to low 60s across the area, and probably rising overnight in many areas as the southerly low level flow increases. The setup on Monday continues to look extremely favorable for severe thunderstorms, with all modes of severe possible (wind, hail, tornadoes). 00z guidance continues to be in excellent agreement showing the extremely robust mid and upper level trough amplifying well to our west this evening, while taking on a negative tilt, and eventually becoming nearly cutoff over the western Great Lakes Monday. At the sfc, intense low pressure is forecast to lift NE from the mid MS Valley to the western Great Lakes late Sun night/early Mon, with all of the forecast models depicting this feature deepening to 980mb or lower and then occluding as the surface and upper level features stack vertically. The 00Z/15z models have trended toward a slightly slower progression of the surface and upper level features on Monday. A prefrontal surface trough will sharpen to our west Monday morning into the early afternoon. Ahead of the trough/cold front, robust moisture transport will bring 60s dew points northward into the entire region. Very strong winds aloft (on the order 120-150 kts) will overspread the region in tandem with a 60-70 kt low level jet. Deep layer shear will likely be in excess of 50 kts which is more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms, and potential supercells. The deepening sfc trough will enhance what will already be impressive shear, and potentially allow the sfc to 1 km winds to back to the SSE ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings/hodographs show very favorable curvature in the low levels with 0-1 SRH generally on the order of 200-400 m2/s2, and 0-3km SRH even higher still. The local area will be in the right entrance region of the mid and upper level jet on Monday which will provide forcing for ascent even well ahead of the surface cold front. The latest hi-res guidance shows a batch of mid to late morning convection across portions of the area. These storms could be strong to severe with the potential for discrete or semi-discrete supercellular convection. All severe hazards are possible (including wind, large hail, and tornadoes), especially if these storms can maintain some separation from each other. A concerning development in some of the latest hi-res models shows the potential for a lull in convective coverage behind these morning/early afternoon storms with some possible breaks in the clouds, allowing surface based instability to potentially rise into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range ahead of the main squall line. If this scenario where to materialize, the potential for widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes would increase above and beyond the already very robust potential we are expecting. SPC has introduced a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for most of the area. This is a fairly rare occurrence (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) and highlights the potential for a very significant and widespread severe weather episode across the region. Severe wind probs are now as high as 60% for the NW 2/3 of the area with tornado probs up to 15% for the western half of the area. While the probabilities drop off a bit for the eastern and southeastern portions of the area, damaging winds and tornadoes are still quite possible before the front finally moves offshore in the evening. This is a very potent severe weather setup and users are encouraged to have multiple ways to receive warnings on Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains dry, with seasonable temperatures returning late in the week. The airmass behind this system will be much cooler (actually trending to well below normal Tue-Wed) as well as significantly drier. Highs mainly in the 40s Tue-Wed. Most of the area can expect a hard freeze Tue night/Wed AM as strong >1030mb sfc high builds overhead, with diminishing winds and lows ranging through the 20s. Even the coast will likely see at least a light freeze with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, the possible exception being the NC OBX. Gradually trending warmer by late in the week, and remaing dry with highs back into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions are in place this morning with mostly clear skies. SE winds mainly 5-10 kt through sunrise, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt as mixing gets underway. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower through the day and MVFR CIGs possible by the mid-late afternoon at ECG, ORF, PHF, and RIC. A few showers are also possible near ECG after 20z but will be scattered in nature. Showers become more prevalent after 00z Monday as well as IFR CIGs. Some restricted VSBY is also possible in showers and fog. A period of LIFR CIGs is possible late in the period as a warm front lifts northward. LLWS will also increase this evening, mainly SE at 45 kt. Outlook: LLWS is also possible for most of the overnight hours Sunday. A strong cold front will bring the potential for additional flight restrictions and strong to severe TSRA Monday. Even outside of any storms, strong, gusty southerly winds prevail into Mon evening with gusts to 25-35 kt expected. Dry/VFR Tue with breezy WNW winds, remaining dry Wed-Thu with less wind. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front approaches from the west Monday and crosses the coast Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely beginning today well in advance of the front with a period of gale conditions probable Monday afternoon and evening, primarily for the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay. - There is an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms Monday. The main threat is strong to damaging wind gusts along with the potential for a few waterspouts as the cold front moves through. 1030mb high pressure is centered across the Northeast early this morning. An ESE, then SE wind increases today into tonight with 1030+mb high pressure drifting off the New England coast and strong low pressure well to the W. SCAs are in effect for most of the marine area beginning later this morning into the afternoon and continuing through Monday morning. Deepening low pressure lifts NE through the Great Lakes Monday with a strong cold front approaching from the W, which then crosses the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night. High-end SCA conditions are likely, with a period of low-end gale conditions probable late Monday aftn/evening in southerly flow ahead of the front, and also briefly in WNW flow immediately behind the front during the late evening/ early overnight hours. Modestly strong pressure falls, a tight pressure gradient, and a 60-75kt LLJ favor a 3-6hr period of southerly gales, primarily for the northern coastal waters, but a ~3hr period of low-end gale conditions is also possible for the southern coastal waters and Ches. Bay. However, the limiting factor will be very stable low-level lapse rates with a mild and moist airmass overspreading cold ocean water. Local wind probs depict the greatest probability of 34kt gusts over the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border, and even a 30-50% chc of 43kt gusts N of Chincoteague (but this may be generous given the cold water). Gale Watches remain in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles from late Monday morning through late Monday evening, and Gale Watches have been added for the southern coastal waters and Ches. Bay from Monday aftn into late Monday evening. SCAs have been extended (or added in the case of the upper rivers and begin Monday morning) and run through 6 AM Tuesday morning. Additionally, there is a risk for strong tstm wind gusts with waterspouts possible in tstms ahead of the front. Seas build to 5-8ft S to 9-12ft N Monday into Monday night, with 3- 5ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally higher at the mouth of the Bay. Remaining breezy Tuesday, with a secondary surge possible for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters Tuesday night. This may allow for SCA conditions to continue for portions of the marine area. Otherwise, m ore benign marine conditions are expected by the middle of next week as high pressure settles across the region. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-656-658. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ630>632-634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1262510 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 358 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A wetter pattern is setting up, and chances for rain and thunder will remain elevated through early next week. There is a potential for a couple of strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the main threat today and tonight. - Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought conditions will persist for the entire island chain, however, beneficial rains will lead to improving conditions next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 It`s been a mixed bag of activity during the overnight. Earlier convection pushed north off the coast of Cuba and initially raced towards the Keys but devolved into an outflow boundary. Surprisingly, despite ample instability this boundary was not able to overcome lingering subsidence in place and no new activity developed. Further east we have been seeing activity wax and wane, primarily confined to the Upper Keys and surrounding coastal waters. We have enter a brief lull as one round moves north across the mainland and another round is taking shape west of Andros Island. Winds have been slightly lighter than previously though with speeds generally 10 to 15 knots from the southeast. This combined with the lack of rainfall overnight has keep temperatures in the upper 70s to even near 80 degrees. For today, the Keys will remain in the warm sector with southeast winds aiding in pushing moisture and instability across the region. Meanwhile, water vapor satellite imagery shows a potent shortwave entering the Bay of Campeche and moving east northeast. This feature will reach the Keys by this afternoon and could give the lift needed to trigger more widespread showers and thunderstorms today. In addition, this feature will only help to enhance a low level veering profile and could lend support for a couple of strong thunderstorms to develop. The main threat would be wind with these storms. This shortwave will quickly exit to the northeast early Monday but lurking just in the Lee of the Rockies is a large upper level trough that is diving southeast. This trough will pivot into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Monday helping to drive a prolific cold front all the way into the western Gulf Basin. Said front will be in a weakening state as it approaches the Keys late Monday into early Tuesday. That being said, we are expecting cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions in its wake. Thereafter, we could see a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions linger through much of next week thanks to a strong high pressure filling in behind the front. Lastly, there is growing suggestion that another potent shortwave will move across the Gulf waters sometime towards the middle of the week. This feature will also race east northeast and move across Florida and the Florida Keys. Models are struggling to resolve how quickly a corresponding surface may develop and where. To put into perspective, the GFS has a surface low developing over or in the vicinity of the Florida Keys with a wetter and potentially stormy outcome. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a little longer to develop a surface feature and places it moreso across the NW Bahamas. Regardless of development, we will remain in a wet pattern for much of next week. This would help tremendously in our current Moderate Drought conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail across all waters today. The exception will be the eastern Straits of Florida, where breezes may briefly freshen to moderate to fresh. However, this would be brief if it did occur and breezes would slacken by the late afternoon and early evening. High pressure currently across the area will get shoved eastward starting tonight in response to a developing strong low pressure across the Midwest. This will allow breezes to briefly slacken on Monday before freshening as a cold front sweeps through late Monday into Tuesday. A strong high pressure filling in behind the front will maintain a prolonged period of fresh to occasionally strong northerly breezes. In addition, shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing today and persist into tonight with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong with gusty erratic winds, heavy downpours, and bouts of frequent lightning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 VFR conditions will continue this morning. However, we continue to monitor for the possibility of showers and thunderstorms to erupt either overhead or close to the island chain around sunrise. Therefore, will keep mentions of VCSH and VCTS as instability will increase through the morning and into the afternoon. A few storms may become strong with wind being the main threat. Outside of any storms, prevailing winds will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 74 84 67 / 60 40 50 70 Marathon 83 75 83 69 / 60 50 50 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1262508 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 323 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory expanded to include nearshore waters from Little River to the South Santee River in South Carolina. Severe weather risk has increased for Monday. Confidence in freezing temperatures for Tuesday night has increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring impacts due to strong winds and severe thunderstorms on Monday. A few storms are possible ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon and night as well. 2) Near-freezing temperatures are expected on Monday night and subfreezing temperatures on Tuesday night are likely. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will bring impacts due to strong winds and severe thunderstorms on Monday. A few gusty storms are possible ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon and night as well. A warm front is expected to lift across the forecast area late this afternoon or evening. In its wake, influx of moist air, with widespread 60s dewpoints overspreading the FA tonight. Temps to remain steady in the 60s or may actually rise to 70 by daybreak Mon. Will have a developing southerly LLJ jet, with speeds 40 to possibly 50 kt just off the deck by sunrise Mon. Any Thunderstorm or just a strong shower with an elevated core, will have the potential to tap these winds and bring them to the sfc as a strong to severe gust. The 1 negative will be the strong onshore southerly winds affecting the area that will push the sfc based "stable" marine layer inland. The further inland one goes, the less depth this marine layer will encompass and therefore a better shot for those strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts to be tapped and brought to the sfc. Confidence continues to increase in the potential for severe weather on Monday. A strong cold front will lead an amplifying trough over the central US. Low level winds will strengthen late Sunday, continuing on Monday ahead of the late afternoon cold front. Southerly moisture transport and divergence aloft will support pre-frontal convection through the afternoon. The main squall line will arrive later in the afternoon or by early evening at the coast. Severe weather will be possible during both periods of convection. Convection during the morning and early afternoon is likely to be isolated to widely scattered due to limited forcing and some weak subsidence ahead of the negatively-tilting trough. HREF probabilities favor showers and storms in coastal northeast SC and southeastern NC where stiff moisture transport taps into the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Despite these areas having the best chance of showers and storms, pre-frontal convection is possible for all areas. Instability in pre-frontal convection will be limited compared to the increasingly impressive shear. Instability will naturally increase during the early afternoon and coverage of showers and storms should increase accordingly. Helicity values favor a few tornadoes in these developing showers and storms, especially where instability is greatest and storms can achieve brief supercellular structure. Given the strong winds just above the boundary layer, the damaging wind threat remains the primary concern. There is some uncertainty due to the marine layer which could generate poor lapse rates near the immediate coast and limit convective mixing. The main squall line will arrive late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. Steering flow being so strong, deterministic models are likely showing the arrival of the line slightly later than reality. Timing probs at the 10th percentile show the line could enter the area as early as 18Z (22Z at the coast) which would coincide with peak heating. Strong winds mixing to the surface and max instability bring high confidence in damaging wind gusts occurring across parts of the area. SPC reflects this potential with their latest outlook, advertising a 60% chance of damaging wind gusts within 25 miles a point for our I-95 counties. This coincides with a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5). Damaging wind probabilities are 45% elsewhere in our forecast area, so severe weather remains likely outside of the higher risk areas. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph are also possible across all areas. Tornadoes will be a concern, both ahead of the line and embedded within the QLCS. A few tornadoes could be strong (EF2+). In addition to severe weather, clear-air wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible at times. Stronger winds are expected at the coast due to the unobstructed southerly fetch. A wind advisory may be needed for portions of the area, especially the Grand Strand and coastal Brunswick County. KEY MESSAGE 2... Freezing temperatures are expected on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Subfreezing temperatures are possible on Monday night for parts of the area. Near freezing temperatures and frost are possible again on Wednesday night. Freezing temperatures will pose a threat to unprotected plants. High pressure behind the cold front will build across the central and eastern US. Cold air advection on Monday night could bring temperatures to near freezing for areas along and west of I-95. Confidence is low due to mixing occurring throughout the night. Probabilities for temperatures at or below freezing are around 30%-40% for Darlington and Marlboro counties. Typically, deterministic models exaggerate the strength of the initial cold air, so we`re holding off on a Freeze Watch for Monday night at this time. There is much higher confidence in freezing temperatures on Tuesday night. Light winds and clear skies within a dry air mass will allow for nearly ideal radiative conditions. Forecast lows may not be cold enough at this time with widespread temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30. Probabilities have increased in sub-freezing temperatures for much of the area. Freeze warnings will likely be needed. Northeasterly flow on Wednesday will reinforce cool air. Light winds and clear skies could bring temperatures close to freezing again through Thursday morning. Confidence is low at this time due to the existence of a weak pressure gradient feeding northeast winds (which are typically under-represented in our deterministic forecasts). Dew points increase slightly due to the easterly component of the wind and a full day of mid- March sun angles may moderate the existing high which may require us to nudge lows upward by a couple of degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wish I could say VFR conditions thru the period but unfortunately, VFR will only dominate thru 14Z. There-after, looking at PROB30 groups for MVFR shower activity and ceilings in response to a northward moving warm front that should push thru from late this afternoon thru late this evening. This WFP northward movement will be aided by the approach of a rather large amplifying/intensifying upper trof from the west. Have only included a tsra possibility this evening for the coastal terminals as the warm sector instability increases in conjunction with the passage of an embedded impulse in the mid- levels. Will observe a NE-E wind AOB 10 kt to start, veering to the ESE-SE 10-15 kt g20 kt as the warm front approaches. After the WFP, look for winds to become southerly 10-15 kt, with g20kt at the coastal terminals. MVFR ceilings to become VFR at all sites as the warm front lifts further north and away from the region. Will need to monitor for any onshore movement of IFR vsby reduced sea fog and/or IFR low stratus. Extended Forecast... Low clouds may redevelop late tonight. An approaching strong cold front Mon will be well preceded by increasing surface winds gusting to 30 to 40kt and scattered showers and discrete strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Associated with the front itself Mon afternoon may be a squall line of severe thunderstorms with gusts to 50+ knots. After the CFP, VFR conditions should return late Mon night and prevail thru Thu. Much colder air and dry conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... SCA remains in effect for the NC Waters. SCA has been raised for the SC Waters, commencing at 9 pm this evening. Sfc pg to tighten across the local waters thruout this period as the center of a 1030+ mb high pulls off to the northeast and a 990 to 980 mb low reaches the Great Lakes. During today, a sfc warm front will lift northward, crossing the area late this afternoon and exiting to the north this evening. Looking at veering winds this period with increasing speeds as the sfc pg further tightens while LL winds increase to 40 to possibly 50 kt by daybreak Mon. The CWF will reflect with further increasing southerly winds by daybreak Mon. Seas will reflect the increasing winds with the hier winds and resulting seas offshore initially bleeding into the local waters prior to the WFP. After FROPA, seas will further increase with 6+ ft seas common across all waters tonight. The cool local SSTs will help keep the gustiness in the wind field aloft in check from reaching the ocean sfc. SCA winds, albeit strong, will manifest themselves late tonight, but moreso during Mon. Monday through Thursday Night... Winds continue to strengthen on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. SCA conditions will be ongoing and a few gusts could approach gale force during the late morning and through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be developing over the nearshore waters and these storms could produce stronger wind gusts and a few waterspouts. Seas peak late Monday as the cold front begins to work its way offshore. The pressure gradient remains compressed on Monday night as winds turn northwesterly. Cold advection behind the cold front should keep winds and seas elevated into early Tuesday. Transient high pressure will move overhead and just offshore on Tuesday evening. Northerly flow will become northeasterly and should maintain some breeziness into Thursday as high pressure sits to our north and low pressure develops well to our south and east. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #1262507 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 312 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 312 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Shower and thunderstorms chances will remain elevated ionto early next week, and could result in localized flooding and strong to severe impacts each afternoon. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. However, a frontal passage Monday-Tuesday could bring much cooler temperatures mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Wet and unsettled weather conditions will continue across South Florida this weekend into early next week, with the potential for localized flooding and a marginal risk for severe weather. Aloft, a deepening trough will exit the Rockies and slide over the Plains today, while a subtle shortwave will drift over the Gulf waters towards the Florida peninsula. Upper level winds will increase in response, and 500mb temperatures will drop to the -12 to -14 C range, well below average for this time of year. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure will drag a cold front across the Plains, while the previously stationary boundary over our area lifts northward and away from our region. As a result, moisture advection will continue across South Florida as southerly flow persists behind the boundary departure, with PWATs nearing record values for this time of year (1.4-1.7 inches forecast). The presence of the shortwave and the warm, moist air mass in place will support more widespread convective development over the region, starting mid-morning along the East Coast and continuing intermittently through the day, over the interior and spreading back over the East Coast metro. During this time frame, the greatest threat will be heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding, with accumulations of 1-2 inches possible once again within that 24 hour period, and a 1 in 10 chance of 4-6 inches in some isolated spots. Furthermore, forcing from the shortwave and significant cooling aloft will promote additional storm growth later this afternoon. Forecast soundings show enhanced instability across much of the region, with CAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg and 700- 500mb lapse rates > 6 C/km. Shear profiles look to remain modest (bulk shear forecast to be between 25-30 kts at best), but all together, this parameter space could support the development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail (around the size of a quarter, or 1 inch), and damaging winds during downbursts. With lower temperatures aloft and a lower freezing level (~13 kft), any storm that grows taller than 20 kft could produce hail. With all of this in mind, WPC has placed the East Coast metro under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flooding due to excessive rainfall, and SPC has placed the entire region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this evening. Guidance shows conditions gradually improving after 8PM when the focus of enhanced instability and shear shifts southwards over the Florida Straits. A few stray showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two could be possible overnight, but the next period of active weather will come late Monday night ahead of the aforementioned cold front approaching the region. High temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s as increased cloud coverage helps moderate conditions. Overnight lows will drop to the low 70s along the coast, and mid 60s over the interior. Temperatures on Monday will reach the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The aforementioned strong synoptic complex (consisting of a deep upper level trough and stout surface low and cold front) will continue to progress eastward Monday night, pushing the cold front across our area overnight into Tuesday. This frontal passage will continue to support scattered convective activity Monday night, with the continued potential for a marginal severe weather threat. A cooler airmass will move in behind the front, with temperatures dropping to the low 70s during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and down to the 40s and 50s. Winds will also surge behind the front, with breezy conditions expected mid week. Models show the aforementioned front will linger over the western Caribbean waters, helping focus enough moisture and instability in our near vicinity to promote convective activity over our local waters and perhaps even over the East Coast each afternoon. Additionally, guidance is also showing a potential cut-off low break off from weak troughing aloft and drifting over our area late this week, with a surface trough or area of low pressure developing near the surface. This could help increase chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon, especially across the East Coast metro area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be likely across all terminals later this afternoon as widespread SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop over the region. Winds will remain out of the south- southeast at 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Conditions will gradually improve overnight as convective activity dies down and winds decrease. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A moderate to fresh southerly to southeasterly breeze will prevail across all local waters through Monday ahead of a frontal approach late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the front mid-week, potentially resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Seas will remain below 3 feet across the Gulf waters, and between 3-5 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible across all local waters this afternoon and early next week, with potentially rough seas and strong winds near any storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Palm Beach and Broward county beaches will be at high risk of rip currents today as northerly swell persists. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 73 85 65 / 60 40 50 60 West Kendall 83 69 87 63 / 60 40 50 60 Opa-Locka 83 72 87 66 / 60 40 50 60 Homestead 83 73 86 67 / 60 40 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 73 84 63 / 60 40 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 73 84 63 / 60 40 60 60 Pembroke Pines 83 73 87 66 / 60 40 50 60 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 60 / 60 50 70 50 Boca Raton 80 72 84 61 / 60 40 60 50 Naples 84 71 84 59 / 70 30 60 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1262506 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 259 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Another round of severe weather is becoming increasingly likely and potentially significant late Sunday night into Monday. All hazards are possible. Day 1 SPC Outlook: Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) introduced for SE AL into the Flint River Valley, and the FL Panhandle I-10 corridor. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) remains intact for most of our remaining eastern counties. - Isolated showers and a possibly a few thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and may occasionally rotate Sunday afternoon. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions expected on Monday in the wake of a strong cold front. A Gale Watch remains in effect for Gulf Waters west of the Nature Coast nearshore legs. - A late season frost/freeze remains on the table for Monday and Tuesday nights with freezing to sub-freezing wind chills. A Freeze Watch may be needed later today for early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Slugs of moisture advecting northward within a wide warm sector raises rain chances today. Much of the activity should be isolated- to-scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms focusing mainly from Apalachee Bay into the FL Big Bend, South- Central GA, and the Suwannee Valley. The environment could support convection capable of gusty winds and small hail. It would also not be terribly surprising if we occasionally see rotating cells - with or without lightning. Otherwise, expect a warm/breezy afternoon under a mix of sun and a healthy cumulus field. Sunday`s forecast high temperatures are in the low 80s away from the immediate coast. Lows range from low 50s to mid 60s from NW to SE. There will be a sharp horizontal max temperature gradient on Monday - i.e., mid 50s at Dothan & mid 70s in Cross City! Some highs are likely to be achieved in the morning depending on the timing of frontal passage. Now onto (potentially significant) severe weather late Sunday night- Monday...Trends continue to increase as the modeled thermodynamics & kinematics have risen ahead of a strong late- season cold front attendant to its potent Parent Low to the north: 1) Ingredients - The 0Z HREF shows a large corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE surging from the Gulf well inland to SE AL/SW GA while a robust low-level jet (up to 45 kts at 850 mb) overspreads the region. Forecast soundings depict deep-layer shear of 40 & 45 kts with 0-1-km shear up to 30 kts - easily supporting organized convection. The latter favors a tornado threat. Steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km also means that large hail is on the table too, particularly for any supercells. 2) Storm mode(s) - isolated to scattered discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the main squall line. The QLCS will carry the biggest damaging wind gust threat with embedded circulations capable of producing brief tornadoes. Supercells will harbor the greater tornado concerns in addition to large hail. 3) Storm arrival time estimates, subject to change - 4AM-7AM CDT for SE AL, FL Panhandle; 7AM-10AM EDT for SW GA west of I-75, Central FL Big Bend; 9AM-12PM EDT for I-75 corridor down to the East FL Big Bend. The overall severe threat should end in the afternoon. 4) Threats - a few tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, i.e., EF-2 or greater. Locations within the Enhanced Risk area stand the greatest chance. Scattered severe gusts of 60-70 mph mainly from the squall line. Large hail up to 1 inch or greater. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Strong cold-air advection will make for a chilly Monday night through Tuesday. Widespread lows in the 30s are forecast (isolated upper 20s) with sub-freezing wind chills nearing local Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Tuesday`s high temperatures are in the 50s. Radiational cooling prompts a light freeze for a good majority of the inland Tri-State area in addition to frosty conditions. Given that we`re now in mid-March, which has been preceded by prolonged periods of anomalous warmth, we should be resuming the issuances of frost/freeze products to account for the plant growing season. Therefore, a (non-hard) Freeze Watch may be needed later this afternoon once we get into the 48-hr window and trends still favor such conditions being met. Temperatures then begin moderating mid- week while no rain is on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail at all terminals except ECP where vsbys have been bouncing around over the last couple hours. Patchy fog may also briefly impact TLH later this morning. Winds today will gradually increase as our next frontal system approaches tomorrow morning. Wind gusts this afternoon will be in the range of 15-20 kts out of the SSW. Some light rain showers may make their way into TLH and VLD late this afternoon and early evening. Conditions will begin to deteriorate across our western terminals, ECP/DHN, at the end of the TAF period as the cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A Gale Watch remains in effect for waters west of the Nature Coast nearshore legs beginning late Sunday night. An upgrade to a Warning is possible this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in St Andrews Bay and waters SE of the Ochlockonee River in future forecasts. CWF Synopsis: Moderate southeast breezes freshen tonight ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to be accompanied by robust maritime convection. Small craft should exercise caution beginning tonight with quickly deteriorating conditions from west to east early on Monday morning. Advisory level winds and seas are expected immediately in the wake of strong frontal passage and persist into Tuesday. Gale conditions remain possible, especially across the western legs. Favorable boating returns mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Warm and somewhat breezy conditions are on tap today with low-end chances for isolated showers and a possibly a few thunderstorms capable of locally gusty winds. High afternoon dispersions are the main concern thanks to brisk southerly winds. For tomorrow, a strong cold front pushes a squall line that is likely to contain embedded strong to severe thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered cells look to develop ahead of this feature and will pose a risk for severe weather as well. Widespread wetting rains are expected. Very high afternoon dispersions immediately follow frontal passage thanks to an abrupt shift to gusty NW winds. A much cooler and drier airmass overtakes the Tri-State area heading into mid-week. Near to critically low RH is forecast on Tuesday, which may foster elevated fire danger under a sustained NNW wind around 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The only notable rain over the next several days is on Monday, but forecast amounts are mostly about a half inch to three- quarters of an inch (isolated higher) given the expected frontal system`s progressive nature. Values are subject to change. While beneficial, these numbers are not nearly high enough to make much of a dent in our ongoing severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought. The CPC Day 8-14 Precipitation Outlook as of March 13th, paints a pessimistic picture with widespread 40-50% probabilities of (leaning) below-normal precipitation - valid March 22nd-28th. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 81 65 67 35 / 20 60 90 0 Panama City 78 62 65 37 / 20 80 90 0 Dothan 81 54 56 30 / 10 90 60 0 Albany 83 61 63 31 / 10 60 90 0 Valdosta 84 66 69 33 / 10 50 90 10 Cross City 83 67 76 34 / 30 50 70 10 Apalachicola 75 68 68 38 / 30 60 90 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GMZ735- 751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1262505 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 234 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 * Limited ponding of water on roadways and poorly drained areas is anticipated today, particularly over eastern and western PR. * Breezy to windy conditions from today into early next week will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Small Craft Advisories and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect for many local waters and beaches. * Warmer temperatures are forecast by early next week with limited rainfall potential. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 Overnight, partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Passing showers affected mainly eastern and northern Puerto Rico, with radar-estimated rainfall totals between 0.10 and 0.30 inches. Winds remained light and variable, while temperatures stayed in the 70s across coastal areas and 60s across higher elevations. Today (Sunday), a trade-wind perturbation will move across the region, leading to a gradual increase in wind speeds and moisture. This pattern will promote periods of passing showers across windward areas, particularly eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, during the early morning and afternoon hours. A limited flooding risk is anticipated for today, meaning ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas is possible. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light to moderate. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop, especially across the U.S. Virgin Islands and coastal areas of Puerto Rico. By Sunday evening, a drier air mass will move into the region, leading to a decrease in shower activity overnight. This drier air mass will reduce the overall flooding potential across the islands, though brief passing showers may still occur Monday. By Tuesday, a more typical seasonal pattern will prevail. Expect a mix of sunshine and brief passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas during the night and morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon activity across western interior sections. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 A broad surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will dominate the regional pattern early in the period. This will maintain easterly trade winds on Wednesday, gradually veering to east-southeasterly and south-southeasterly by Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. A mid-level ridge will persist through Friday before being displaced southeastward by a broad trough dipping into the northern Caribbean late in the period. Moisture will remain mostly shallow through midweek, generally below 700 mb, briefly extending near 650 mb Thursday afternoon into the night before gradually deepening toward the weekend. As a result, conditions will transition from relatively drier-than-normal on Wednesday to more variable moisture Thursday and Friday, with a gradual increase in shower activity by Saturday. Temperatures will remain within typical seasonal ranges, with slightly warmer afternoons locally and a gradual warming trend into the weekend likely responding to the increasing southerly wind component. Hazards through most of the period will be mainly wind-driven. Breezy to occasionally windy conditions early in the period may create an elevated wind risk across exposed and coastal areas and will promote fast-moving trade wind showers across windward sectors, particularly overnight and during the morning hours. These showers may occasionally produce brief downpours but will generally move quickly across the area. As winds weaken and moisture deepens toward the weekend, hazards may gradually shift toward a slightly higher risk of locally heavier showers, which could increase the potential for excessive rainfall and localized ponding in urban and poorly drained areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 All TAF sites should experience VFR condt. VCSH possible at TJSJ, TIST, and TJBQ through 15/14Z. After 15/17Z VCSH will affect TJBQ and TJSJ. E winds gradually increasing after 15/14Z btwn 13-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and sea breeze variations aft 15/13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 Surface high pressure building over the western and central Atlantic will result in an increasing pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh easterly winds that will gradually strengthen today. These wind-driven seas will result in choppy to rough conditions across all exposed local waters for the latter part of the week. From Monday through midweek, fresh to strong easterly winds will make additional areas of the regional waters hazardous, with seas building to 7 to 9 feet and winds up to 25 knots and higher gusts. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, starting Sunday morning, with Advisories spreading to coastal areas and the Anegada Passage by Sunday evening. Small craft operators should stay tuned for further updates, as additional Small Craft Advisories may be required. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 The beach forecast remains on track. As mentioned in the marine section, strengthening winds today are expected to generate choppy to rough seas across the regional waters, leading to breaking waves around 6 feet and a high potential of rip currents along the surf zone. As a result, a Rip Current Statement has been issued for northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Monday night. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor conditions and heed the advice on the flag systems. Beachgoers should remain alert to changing coastal conditions and continue monitoring the latest updates, as hazardous beach conditions will likely persist over the next few days, and an extension of the Rip Current Statement may be required. Although a moderate risk continues elsewhere, beachgoers should exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents remain possible along the surf zone. For additional information, please visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM AST Sun Mar 15 2026 The fire weather threat is LOW, but localized higher fire weather conditions can not be ruled out today. Winds will gradually become stronger but due to previous rains, RH values remain near to above criteria. Regardless, we encourage partners to continue monitoring conditions for any changes in the forecast later today. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late Monday night for PRZ001>003-005-008-012-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST this morning through late Monday night for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ712-735. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ716-726-733-741. && $$ |
| #1262504 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 235 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm hazards through Monday. - Hazardous marine conditions Monday into mid week. - Increased fire danger Tuesday into mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 As a stationary front over south FL shifts north, deep moisture will move in from the south. Upper level support with diurnal heating and sea breeze collisions will result in more widespread shower and storm coverage this afternoon compared to yesterday. Conditions support the possibility of some storms become severe. SPC has placed the entire peninsula in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe storms. Main concern will be the possibility of strong, damaging wind gusts and hail. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours could also accompany any storm that develops. Monday will also see an unsettled pattern as a strong cold front sweeps in from the northwest. This will bring another day of showers and storms. Once again, there will be a potential for some storms to be severe. SPC has placed most of the area north of I4 in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather and Levy County in a slight risk (2 of 5). As the storms move southeast over the area, they are expected to weaken. Behind Monday`s cold front, much cooler and dry air will filter into the area. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Below average temperatures will linger through most of the week, keeping the 80s out of the forecast until next Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Mostly VFR conditions continue through the morning. With only a few pockets of MVFR and IFR ceilings. Conditions will turn messy as the day continues and showers and storms begin moving in from the south. Periods of below VFR will be possible throughout the early afternoon for the southern sites, then later afternoon/evening further north as the storms continue to move north. Southerly winds will also increase throughout the day. A few showers could be possible overnight as moisture lingers. Monday another round of below VFR conditions will be possible as showers and storms move over the are from the northwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Seas will continue to deteriorate throughout the day today as showers and storms over the SWFL area move northward. Gusty winds and lightning are possible with storms that move over the water. Winds continue to increase, reaching advisory levels by Monday afternoon. Winds begin to decrease Tuesday afternoon. A high risk of rip currents will also be likely over the next few days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Ample moisture today and tomorrow will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. Showers and storms will be possible each day. A strong cold front moves through Monday. Much cooler and drier air will move in Tuesday dropping RH values below critical for northern counties. A surge of moisture Wednesday and Thursday will help increase RH values, before dropping again Friday into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 84 71 82 49 / 70 30 90 20 FMY 86 70 85 56 / 70 30 70 50 GIF 86 68 84 49 / 80 40 90 30 SRQ 84 71 83 50 / 60 30 80 30 BKV 86 65 83 42 / 70 40 90 20 SPG 84 74 83 53 / 60 30 90 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1262503 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 230 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Overall, no significant changes to the Key Messages. The Aviation section has been updated for the 06z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Scattered thunderstorms expected today with an isolated severe threat possible. - 2) A strong cold front will pass through southeast GA and southeast SC on Monday bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. - 3) Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered thunderstorms expected today with an isolated severe threat possible. Surface analysis shows high pressure centered across New England extending down the Eastern Seaboard and into GA and the Carolinas while a coastal trough sharpens just off the coast. This trough is expected to lift northward through sunrise across the coastal waters, and then push further northward and inland through the early afternoon clearing the forecast area. The suite of hi-res models seem to be telling a similar story. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms seems to align well along and just behind the leading edge of the boundary. This belt of low-level lift will gradually track inland through midday and leave the forecast area solidly within the warm sector for the afternoon with likely what will be isolated thunderstorm coverage at best due to the lack of any real initiation feature. So there is a bit of a disconnect between the best forcing (morning), and the best ambient severe environment (afternoon). During the afternoon, model soundings suggest MLCAPE values on the order of 1,000-1,500 J/kg, ~30 kt of 0-6 km shear, and some decent veering in the low-levels. However, by the afternoon, the airmass becomes a bit homogeneous there isn`t much for the convection to develop on. So, the area remains in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) in the Day 1 SPC Severe Weather Outlook. This makes sense covering what appears to be a conditional threat. KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will pass through southeast GA and southeast SC on Monday bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. A strong cold front is expected to move through southeast GA and southeast SC beginning late Monday morning and shifting off the coast by mid afternoon Monday. The front will bring a multitude of hazards to the region. Overall, not much change to these threats from the past few forecast cycles. Severe Thunderstorms: A strong cold front is expected to begin entering the western portion of the forecast area by mid to late morning Monday and then quickly push to the east, exiting the coast by the mid afternoon hours. The first severe concern will come with more discreet convection that could develop ahead of the cold front and the main line Monday morning. Then the primary severe threat will be associated with the linear convection forced by the front that will track eastward into the afternoon. The forecast area will be situated within the warm sector ahead of the front with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. There is solid support for MLCAPE values rising into the 1,000-1,500 J/kg range coincident with a rather impressive wind field. Guidance suggests 0-6km wind shear on the order of 50 knots, 0-3km wind shear 40-50 knots. Model sounding suggest wind profiles are pretty unidirectional, though there could be some low-level backing of the flow yielding some higher SRH values. As such, damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, followed by an isolated tornado threat, and hail being a distant third. Setting the goal posts wide, the timing of the severe threat probably begins around 9-10 am and ends by around 4-5 pm. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook now includes the entire forecast area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). Gusty Winds: As stated above with the severe threat, the wind field will be pretty impressive and with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s, there will be sufficient momentum to mix down some strong wind gusts from the morning and through the afternoon ahead of the front. There remains potential for gusts in excess of 35 mph outside of any thunderstorms with gusts of 25-30 mph being more common. We will almost certainly need a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Moultrie and there is still the possibility of needing a Wind Advisory for portions of the area. Rainfall: The environment will be quite moist ahead of the front and guidance suggest a ribbon of precipitable water values approaching 1.50 inches (above the 90th percentile according to SPC`s sounding climatology). However, the line of convection is expected to be very fast moving which will limit the significant rainfall potential. Most likely rainfall amounts are in the 0.25-0.75, with potential for a few isolated amounts approaching an inch depending on how convection evolves. Therefore, the risk for intense rainfall producing flooding appears rather low. KEY MESSAGE 3: Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night. Cold high pressure will build into the area behind the cold front late Monday afternoon through Monday night. An advection freeze is increasingly likely late Monday night over interior portions of southeast SC/GA. We felt confident enough to hoist a Freeze Watch for Bulloch, Candler, Evans, Jenkins, Screven, Tattnall, Allendale and Hampton Counties. Elsewhere, low temps are expected to dip into the mid 30s, but frost formation doesn`t seem likely due to fairly strong winds continuing overnight. Tuesday night may be slightly cooler due to radiational cooling as the surface high settles over the area and winds diminish late in the evening. We`ll likely need another Freeze Watch for most non-coastal zones, and a Frost Advisory is possible for the remainder of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The main forecast concern is for a period of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, to move through the terminals this morning as a warm front lifts northward and inland. The general time period of concern begins around 12z and continues through about 16z. These showers could bring periods of light to moderate rain with MVFR conditions. Once this activity lifts to the north by midday or the early afternoon, the chance of showers and storms is lower in the afternoon. Winds will remain east until the boundary passes, then becoming southerly and a little breezy for the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and then especially on Monday as a strong cold front moves through. Very gusty winds are expected outside of any shower and thunderstorm activity at all terminals Monday. && .MARINE... Gusty southerly winds will develop late tonight and continue into Monday ahead of a strong cold front. An abrupt wind shift will occur early Monday evening as the front sweeps through. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for all waters late tonight through Tuesday morning. We cannot completely rule out a period of Gale force gusts in the Charleston County nearshore waters Monday afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front, but confidence was too low to issue a Gale Watch. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March 17-20, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites during the maintenance outage: KCAE - Columbia, SC KLTX - Wilmington, NC KJAX - Jacksonville, FL KVAX - Moody AFB, GA KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ087-088-099-100-114-115. SC...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for SCZ040-042. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
| #1262502 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 124 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Fire Weather Watch, Gale Watch and Wind Advisory have been issued - Cold front late Sunday will bring critical fire conditions Monday and gale conditions across marine sites - Below-normal temps Monday/Tuesday followed by a warming trend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 We`re in for a dramatic next 24 hours. Today is looking to be the warmest day this week. This is thanks due to the compressional heating brought ahead of tonight`s cold front. Additionally, the dryline moving through this morning this afternoon will only allow for greater heating this afternoon. Laredo is looking to hit the century mark and possible record-breaking heat for Victoria and Corpus Christi this afternoon. Needless to say, any body spending times outdoors should practice heat safety and take plenty of shade/water breaks. Southerly onshore flow will make for hazardous conditions for small craft through tonight before conditions deteriorate behind the front. This cold front passage has been more progressive since yesterday`s forecast; now expecting the wind shift and the rapid increase of wind speed and gusts to occur between 8 PM Sunday- midnight Monday. By that time, any loosed item that remains unsecured will likely be tossed around. Given that we`re under 24 hrs until the wind shift, we went ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and for marine concerns, the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning. Wind gusts of 45-50 mph after the cold front passage. Isolated locations south of Hwy 59 will have a low chance (10-30%) of seeing gusts in excess of 55 mph, but measurement sites directly next to our local bays/waters cannot rule out a 60 mph gust. We remain with gusty northerly winds through Monday morning after a dramatically lower morning temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s, with a downward trend in wind speeds through the remainder of the day. Monday night will see a dramatically calmer night with winds generally remaining under 10 mph. This with clear skies, low dewpoint temperatures, we`ll see a cold night in store with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 30s/40s. Through the remainder of the week, onshore flow will slowly allow Gulf moisture to return into South Texas through the upcoming week. Temperatures will also climb back into the upper 90s for inland locations next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 South to southeasterly winds tonight between 10-15 knots will limit opportunities for fog tonight even with moisture in place. However, we can still expect MVFR/IFR ceilings between 10-14Z. Winds will shift to the west this afternoon, then increase with gusts around 25 knots expected. A cold front will approach late in the TAF period, diminishing winds briefly. During this time LLWS could become a concern, but have low confidence in this so have not put this into the TAF just yet. Behind the front, winds will turn to the north and increase further, with gusts as high as 40 knots possible late in the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A Small Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight with a Gale Warning from tonight through Monday morning. You can expect for another Small Craft Advisory to be issued Monday afternoon once winds decrease below gale speeds. Except for a low to medium chance (20-55%) for showers across the Gulf Waters with the frontal passage, rain is not expected next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 With Energy Release Component Values among the 70th-89th percentile spreading across the region today and temperatures climbing upper 90s with RH values dropping into the 10-15% range, our fire risk will remain slightly elevated, with weaker surface winds limiting a higher fire risk. However, a cold front passage tonight will bring gusty winds in its wake through Monday morning. RH values late tonight/early Monday morning will struggle to climb above 30% as a powerful surge of dry air moves into South Texas. Winds during this time will be at their strongest (gusting as high as 45 mph). Winds Monday afternoon will gradually decrease with RH values dropping to as low as 10%. As such, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from tonight through Monday night, but it may start as early as the overnight hours given the lack of the recovery of RH values. Onshore flow will allow Min RH`s Tuesday afternoon to drop to 15-20% thus keeping the fire risk elevated Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 49 65 45 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 90 42 60 35 / 0 10 0 0 Laredo 100 51 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 84 48 64 46 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 98 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 49 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 52 63 52 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Monday for TXZ229>233-240-241. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ234-242>247-342>347-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1262501 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 219 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and Sunday. - Shower and thunderstorms chances remain elevated through the end of the weekend, and could result in localized flooding and strong to severe impacts each afternoon. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. However, a frontal passage Monday-Tuesday could bring much cooler temperatures mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Wet and unsettled weather conditions will continue across South Florida this weekend into early next week, with the potential for localized flooding and a marginal risk for severe weather. Aloft, a deepening trough will exit the Rockies and slide over the Plains today, while a subtle shortwave will drift over the Gulf waters towards the Florida peninsula. Upper level winds will increase in response, and 500mb temperatures will drop to the -12 to -14 C range, well below average for this time of year. Near the surface, a strong area of low pressure will drag a cold front across the Plains, while the previously stationary boundary over our area lifts northward and away from our region. As a result, moisture advection will continue across South Florida as southerly flow persists behind the boundary departure, with PWATs nearing record values for this time of year (1.4-1.7 inches forecast). The presence of the shortwave and the warm, moist air mass in place will support more widespread convective development over the region, starting mid-morning along the East Coast and continuing intermittently through the day, over the interior and spreading back over the East Coast metro. During this time frame, the greatest threat will be heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding, with accumulations of 1-2 inches possible once again within that 24 hour period, and a 1 in 10 chance of 4-6 inches in some isolated spots. Furthermore, forcing from the shortwave and significant cooling aloft will promote additional storm growth later this afternoon. Forecast soundings show enhanced instability across much of the region, with CAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg and 700- 500mb lapse rates > 6 C/km. Shear profiles look to remain modest (bulk shear forecast to be between 25-30 kts at best), but all together, this parameter space could support the development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail (around the size of a quarter, or 1 inch), and damaging winds during downbursts. With lower temperatures aloft and a lower freezing level (~13 kft), any storm that grows taller than 20 kft could produce hail. With all of this in mind, WPC has placed the East Coast metro under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flooding due to excessive rainfall, and SPC has placed the entire region under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this evening. Guidance shows conditions gradually improving after 8PM when the focus of enhanced instability and shear shifts southwards over the Florida Straits. A few stray showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two could be possible overnight, but the next period of active weather will come late Monday night ahead of the aforementioned cold front approaching the region. High temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s as increased cloud coverage helps moderate conditions. Overnight lows will drop to the low 70s along the coast, and mid 60s over the interior. Temperatures on Monday will reach the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The aforementioned strong synoptic complex (consisting of a deep upper level trough and stout surface low and cold front) will continue to progress eastward Monday night, pushing the cold front across our area overnight into Tuesday. This frontal passage will continue to support scattered convective activity Monday night, with the continued potential for a marginal severe weather threat. A cooler airmass will move in behind the front, with temperatures dropping to the low 70s during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and down to the 40s and 50s. Winds will also surge behind the front, with breezy conditions expected mid week. Models show the aforementioned front will linger over the western Caribbean waters, helping focus enough moisture and instability in our near vicinity to promote convective activity over our local waters and perhaps even over the East Coast each afternoon. Additionally, guidance is also showing a potential cut-off low break off from weak troughing aloft and drifting over our area late this week, with a surface trough or area of low pressure developing near the surface. This could help increase chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon, especially across the East Coast metro area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be likely across all terminals later this afternoon as widespread SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop over the region. Winds will remain out of the south- southeast at 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Conditions will gradually improve overnight as convective activity dies down and winds decrease. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A moderate to fresh southerly to southeasterly breeze will prevail across all local waters through Monday ahead of a frontal approach late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will increase out of the north behind the front mid-week, potentially resulting in hazardous boating conditions. Seas will remain below 3 feet across the Gulf waters, and between 3-5 feet across the Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible across all local waters this afternoon and early next week, with potentially rough seas and strong winds near any storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Palm Beach and Broward county beaches will be at high risk of rip currents today as northerly swell persists. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 73 85 64 / 60 30 50 60 West Kendall 83 69 87 63 / 60 30 50 60 Opa-Locka 83 72 86 64 / 60 30 50 60 Homestead 83 73 86 67 / 60 30 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 73 84 62 / 60 40 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 81 73 84 62 / 60 40 60 50 Pembroke Pines 83 73 86 64 / 60 30 50 60 West Palm Beach 82 71 85 60 / 60 40 60 50 Boca Raton 82 72 84 62 / 60 40 60 50 Naples 85 71 84 58 / 70 30 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1262500 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 209 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Severe weather including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes will be possible late Sunday evening into Monday morning - A few strong to severe storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon ahead of the main weather system - Hazardous marine and beach conditions expected on Monday in the wake of a strong cold front. A Gale Watch is in effect - Chances of a late season frost/freeze have increased for Monday and Tuesday nights with freezing to sub-freezing wind chills. The former will be particularly impactful for agricultural interests who have planted early. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A warming and moistening trend is forecast to continue into Sunday with breezy onshore winds expected ahead of the next approaching system. Showers and a few storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, and with fairly high low level wind shear, I wouldn`t be surprised if some of these end up producing some gusty winds or even a couple of tornadoes. Seems like instability may be the limiting factor, but it doesn`t take much to get these very low-topped supercells (supershowers as we call them when they don`t even have lightning). Coverage should be fairly isolated, however this could end up helping severe potential with allowing storms/showers to take full advantage of the atmosphere without other storms crowding the space and cutting off inflow. This setup overall seems pretty conditional, so confidence is on the lower side, but I just want to make sure its not getting overshadowed by the Sunday night/Monday morning weather. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The main event for this week is a very strong cold front with strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The ceiling for this event appears to be quite high if all of the ingredients are maximized and can line up favorably including strong upper and mid-level dynamics, unseasonably high instability, and strong low-level wind shear. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to very quickly push eastward across the region Sunday night into Monday morning, with damaging winds and tornadoes the primary threats with this line. Ahead of the main line, we could have some discrete supercell development as well. If those are able to form, they will likely be severe with damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail all possible. Hodographs generally appear fairly straight, which could favor both left and right- moving supercells. Left- movers would favor the large hail threat and right-movers would favor the tornado threat. Timing is still a bit uncertain with this system as guidance showers anywhere from Sunday night to early Monday afternoon, however in setups like this the model bias tends to show a storm motion slower than it ends up being. Regardless of the actual time of arrival, the storm motions will be quite fast and therefore fairly little rainfall accumulation is expected. A very sharp, strong cold front is forecast to sweep across the region after the squall line, with strong cold air advection leading to windy, dry, and chilly conditions for the rest of the day Monday. High temperatures may actually occur in the early morning hours on Monday before falling throughout the rest of the day and into the night Monday night. Low temperatures on Monday night are forecast in stark contrast to the recent days, ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region with windy conditions bringing wind chills into the 20s. Freezing conditions seem likely over much of the inland areas, although winds and dry conditions should keep frost at bay. Very chilly conditions are expected to continue into Tuesday with high temperatures only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another cold night is forecast Tuesday night with high pressure overhead and radiational cooling favored. Low temperatures may actually be coldest Tuesday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but with wind chills in the mid 20s to low 30s due to light winds. A warming and moistening trend is expected to kick off Wednesday onward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail at all terminals except ECP where vsbys have been bouncing around over the last couple hours. Patchy fog may also briefly impact TLH later this morning. Winds today will gradually increase as our next frontal system approaches tomorrow morning. Wind gusts this afternoon will be in the range of 15-20 kts out of the SSW. Some light rain showers may make their way into TLH and VLD late this afternoon and early evening. Conditions will begin to deteriorate across our western terminals, ECP/DHN, at the end of the TAF period as the cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Increasing winds and seas are expected on Sunday as the next strong frontal system approaches the area. Strong to severe showers and storms are expected late Sunday night through Monday morning, with strong onshore winds ahead of it and stronger NW winds in its wake. As such, a Gale Watch is in effect for most waters early Monday morning through Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions could last through Tuesday as winds and seas gradually subside. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A slight warming and moistening trend will continue on Sunday with quite windy onshore flow ahead of the next frontal system. These windy conditions will lead to excellent dispersions across the area on Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday morning a squall line of showers and thunderstorms, some severe, is expected to push eastward across the area. Damaging winds, some hail, and tornadoes will all be possible, however unfortunately not much rainfall accumulation is expected. A strong cold front is forecast to push across with the storms, with winds becoming NW and quite windy in its wake. Temps will likely fall through much of the day on Monday with strong cold air advection taking place. Very high to excellent dispersions are possible across the area once again Monday and Tuesday with the breezy conditions behind the front. By Tuesday, a cool and critically dry air mass is expected to be entrenched over the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The only notable rain over the next several days is on Monday, but forecast amounts are mostly about a half inch to three- quarters of an inch (isolated higher) given the expected frontal system`s progressive nature. Values are subject to change. While beneficial, these numbers are not nearly high enough to make much of a dent in our ongoing severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought. The CPC Day 8-14 Precipitation Outlook as of March 13th, paints a pessimistic picture with widespread 40-60% probabilities of (likely) below-normal precipitation - valid March 21st-27th. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 81 67 72 35 / 30 70 80 0 Panama City 78 66 70 37 / 20 90 70 0 Dothan 81 60 62 31 / 20 90 70 0 Albany 83 64 68 31 / 10 70 80 0 Valdosta 84 66 73 33 / 30 70 90 10 Cross City 84 67 77 36 / 50 60 90 10 Apalachicola 74 67 72 37 / 30 80 80 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GMZ735- 751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1262499 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 - Numerous showers and storms will impact the area later today and Monday. A few storms could become strong or severe, with a 5-10% chance for damaging winds up to 60 mph and quarter-size hail. - Beneficial rainfall is expected, but repeated storms may lead to minor flooding in urban areas. - A strong cold front moves through Monday night, bringing gusty winds and hazardous boating conditions. Much cooler air arrives Tuesday morning, with lows falling into the 40s across the Orlando and Daytona Beach areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- A split flow regime continues this morning, with Florida sitting just north of the subtropical jet. Across the northern Rockies, a 170 kt H3 polar jet streak is beginning to carve out a longwave trough that will drive a blizzard across the Upper Midwest and severe weather across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The initial approach of this sharpening trough has turned mid-level winds southwesterly over Florida. Within the subtropical jet, a weak impulse of energy over the western Gulf is expected to move over the state this afternoon and evening. As it does, it will encounter moderate to strong instability, courtesy of cool H5 temps (~ -13 deg C) above a warm, moist boundary layer. Proximity soundings reveal 2000+ J/kg of SFC CAPE, sufficient downdraft CAPE, and weak but veering wind profiles yielding around 20 KT of effective shear. As the unusually deep longwave trough over the Central U.S. migrates eastward, a surface cold front is expected to reach the Florida Peninsula on Monday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase to 30-35 kt as southwesterly winds increase ahead of the front. PW values from 150-175% of mid-March norms will persist until the front passes, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of SFC CAPE during peak heating. Much drier and cooler air filters in behind the front on Monday night. Ensemble-averaged H925 (~ 3 kft) temperatures fall to between +3 and +9 deg C on Tuesday afternoon, which is near the 5th percentile for the time of year. The 13/12Z grand ensemble is coming into somewhat better agreement with the pattern from mid to late next week, but the details are still a bit murky. The polar jet is expected to quickly retreat northward, but Florida will sit downstream of a strong H5 ridge and unprecedented March heatwave over the Desert Southwest for much of the week. With the PNA turning positive, this is likely to leave a weak mid-level trough somewhere near the state. This feature should interact with a baroclinic zone to produce a surface trough or an area of low pressure by around Thursday, particularly near or just offshore of South Florida. With Central Florida sandwiched between a potential surface trough and continental high pressure to the north, onshore breezes are expected to freshen from mid to late next week. This will yield some temperature moderation but also allow for some moisture to return. Expect a sharp gradient of moisture over the southern half of the state through at least Thursday. By next weekend, another trough will enter the Northeast U.S., likely kicking much of this moisture out to sea. Temperatures are expected to continue moderating as west-northwest flow aloft pulls eastward some of the unusually warm air over the Western U.S. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... A bit of patchy fog may form early this morning over the interior. Aside from a rogue shower or two, most of the area should remain on the quiet side through midday. That will quickly change by afternoon as the ingredients come into place for a round of numerous showers and storms (70-90%). The 14/18Z REFS suggests that storms are most likely between 2 PM and 9 PM today, with north-northeastward storm motions. You will need to stay aware of the weather today. The entire area is in a 5-10% SPC Marginal Risk for gusty winds of 50-60 mph and coin-size hail up to quarters, perhaps slightly larger. AI/ML convective outlooks support these probabilities. Convective-allowing ensembles indicate that locally heavy rain is possible as well, with a 1 in 10 chance of 6-hour tallies reaching 3-4 inches. This is needed rain, but it may fall too quickly, sparking minor flooding, especially over urban locations. Areal averages will be lower, generally 1/2" to 1 1/2". Highs today will be warm again, in the mid-80s, before the storms get going. Quieter conditions resume overnight, but it will remain quite balmy. Monday... One more day to watch the radar closely for strong storm development. As the cold front moves into Central Florida during the afternoon, the environment appears conducive for more organized bands of showers and storms, some of which may be strong to severe. AI/ML probabilities for severe hazards range from 5-15%. Primary hazards remain gusty winds of 50-60 mph, coin- size hail, and frequent lightning. More unidirectional wind profiles should limit the overall tornado threat to low/very low, but it is non-zero. This broken line of storms will likely reach the Orlando area in the early to mid afternoon before drifting toward the Treasure Coast by sunset. Expect a breezy and warm day ahead of the front, with low to mid 80s. A few wind gusts to 30 mph can be anticipated even outside of any storms. Remainder of Next Week... Once the front gets south of here Monday night, cooler air rushes in. Quite a temperature gradient by daybreak on Tuesday, with 50s along the Treasure and immediate Space Coasts and 40s elsewhere. There is a 20-30% chance of reaching the upper 30s over northern Lake and Volusia counties. Wind chills are likely to dip into the mid-upper 30s northwest of I-4. High temps on Tuesday will struggle to reach the low 60s from Orlando northward, with mid-upper 60s farther south. Aside from a lingering shower along the Treasure Coast, Tuesday should be dry. Similarly, cold temperatures are forecast on Wednesday morning over our northern communities. Winds turn onshore beginning Wednesday, beginning some modest warming (upper 60s-low 70s). This begins a timeframe of lower confidence, with the nearby trough potentially sparking bands of rain over the southern peninsula. Just how far north the rain gets is in question, but at the very least, we should see quite a bit of cloudiness. We currently have 20-40% rain chances on Wednesday from Melbourne southward, expanding to areas south of I-4 on Thursday. The area of unsettled weather to our south should begin to move seaward beginning Friday, leaving only low shower chances along the immediate coast. Seasonably mild high temps on Friday should warm into the weekend, as probabilities for high temps of 80 deg F + reach 60-80% by that time. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A strong cold front will approach the waters, arriving late on Monday. Ahead of it, winds turn southerly today, then freshen out of the southwest on Monday. Offshore-moving showers and gusty storms are forecast for the next two afternoons. Boating conditions will become poor to hazardous early in the work week. Behind the front, strong northwest breezes will affect the waters Monday night and early Tuesday. High pressure then drifts over the Mid-Atlantic by mid-week as the front stalls over the southern Bahamas. Seas 3-5 ft through Monday, increasing to 3-6 ft nearshore and 7-9 ft in the Gulf Stream by Tuesday morning. Seas slowly subside by late Wednesday to 3-6 ft. Depending on the position of a surface trough near South Florida late next week, seas may become hazardous again by next Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Probs for IFR stratus have increased around 50% for MCO/SFB/LEE overnight so have inserted these conds 09Z-13Z at those TAF sites. High coverage of SHRA/TSRA on Sun developing late morning from south to north. Convection may focus/initiate along sea breeze near the coast so have added a TEMPO TSRA from SUA-MLB beginning 16Z-17Z but this may need to be pushed back to later in the aftn. Add`l convection should focus over MCO/SFB/DAB btwn 20Z-24Z then push off the coast in the eve. Allowed for some VCSH, even prevailing -RA VCTS past 00Z but all convection should diminish by midnight. Winds will have a southeast to south component today, becoming breezy behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals gusting up to 22 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 There are no fire weather concerns through Monday, but lightning storms are forecast over the district which may cause new fire starts. Over the next two days, wetting rains are expected over much of Central Florida from these scattered storms. A cold front settles south of the area on Tuesday, delivering drier air to northern portions of Central Florida. Minimum RH values from 30-40% are forecast from near Orlando and points northward. North winds from 8-12 mph will make for fire-sensitive conditions. RH readings should increase modestly beginning Wednesday as winds turn back onshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 65 83 45 / 80 50 80 30 MCO 85 67 83 48 / 80 50 80 30 MLB 82 66 84 51 / 80 60 80 50 VRB 83 66 85 54 / 80 60 80 50 LEE 85 66 81 45 / 80 50 80 20 SFB 86 66 83 47 / 80 50 80 30 ORL 85 67 83 48 / 90 50 80 30 FPR 83 65 86 53 / 70 60 80 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1262498 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 - HIGH risk of rip currents Sunday night into Monday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. - Increasing concern for the potential of severe storms along a squall line that slides across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main threats. A strong (EF2+) tornado can not be ruled out near or east of the I-65 corridor. - Increasing confidence in at least 4-6 hours of below freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning behind a strong cold front across our interior counties in south Alabama and south Mississippi. Strong marine winds are expected early Monday morning behind the front with gale force gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Very active weather exists for the near term period over the next few days. Multiple hazards will affect the forecast area with virtually everything but the kitchen sink being thrown our way. Well above normal temperatures today, strong to severe storms late tonight into early Monday, a powerful cold front bringing strong, gusty winds and freezing temperatures in its wake to even potential fire weather concerns on Tuesday. I`ll break everything down below, first starting with what we can expect today into this evening. Well, we start off pretty calm with southerly return flow bringing moisture back into the area ahead of the approaching storm system. We will probably see some isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two try to get going this afternoon in association with the warm advection, but otherwise anticipating mostly dry weather today as highs top out in the lower 80`s. Winds will be gusty today as the pressure gradient starts to tighten up and low level flow strengthens, steadily ramping up as we head into tonight. Before getting into the nitty gritty on tonight, the overall expectation is for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move across the area during the overnight hours, likely exiting the forecast area near or just after daybreak. This line will bring the threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. A more conditional threat for discrete thunderstorms ahead of the line will exist in the vicinity of and east of the I-65 corridor where the best potential for strong EF2+ tornadoes exists. The coverage of discrete storms is not expected to be much, but the environment is certainly concerning if we get storms to form ahead of the line. Now to dive into the details on how things could evolve tonight. Most CAM guidance the past couple cycles has been trending to a slightly slower evolution of the QLCS allowing for forcing to potentially better align with the open warm sector and potential pre-frontal trough feature along and east of the I-65 corridor prior to the passage of the QLCS. CAMs depict a volatile environment with large, curved hodographs and ample instability in place yielding upwards of 300 m2/s2 SRH and 2,000j/kg of CAPE. A lingering EML that will gradually lift out thanks to the impinging forcing, and how fast this happens will be the difference between nothing ahead of the line to there being several discrete to semi-discrete supercells. If storms can form, the environment is primed for the potential for significant tornadoes of EF2 or greater intensity. The threat is conditional relying on the overspreading of forcing across the warm sector and pre-frontal trough, but was concerning enough for the introduction of an enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk area by SPC for tornadoes to portions of south-central Alabama into our far eastern Florida Panhandle counties. The line of storms itself will probably race across the area fairly quickly bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Most of the CAM guidance is somewhat anemic with the line, however given the forcing moving across the area along with the shear/thermodynamic environment I don`t see why a more robust line wouldn`t materialize. This would particularly be the case if we can slow the forward progression of the line down a bit more. The QLCS and cold front blast across the area fairly quickly Monday morning near or prior to daybreak, bringing a substantially colder airmass into the area. Lingering showers are expected through most of the morning in the wake of the front as ample forcing remains over the area. Most locations will see their high temperatures for the day ahead of the front, with highs likely occurring between midnight and 6am in the middle to upper 60`s. Temperatures crash into the middle to upper 40`s by mid morning and will likely struggle to reach the lower 50`s by the afternoon hours. While wind gusts outside of storms are currently expected to stay below Wind Advisory criteria, we are still anticipating frequent gusts of 30 to 35mph. The stronger pressure gradient and stronger low level jet stay just north of the area prior to the passage of the front, which should help keep us shy of the 40mph frequent gust criteria. Needless to say, it`s still going to be breezy this evening into tonight outside of any storms. Given the strong onshore flow ahead of the front we will quickly ramp up our rip current risk this afternoon and evening. We start off generally as a Low risk early this morning, ramping up to a Moderate risk by this afternoon, and a High risk by this evening. The High Risk will linger into early Monday morning for Alabama beaches, and late Monday afternoon for Florida Panhandle beaches. The rip current risk dips back to a Low risk for all beaches by early Tuesday morning, remaining that way through the remainder of the week. Monday night will likely feature a near areawide freeze as temperatures dip into the upper 20`s to lower 30`s for most locations outside of the immediate coastal zones. Given the prolonged warmth we have seen and us entering the beginning of the growing season we will likely need freeze watches and warnings in future forecast updates. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing after midnight Monday night and stay below freezing through around 9 AM Tuesday morning. As we head into Tuesday, attention shifts towards some potential fire weather concerns. In the wake of the front, a very dry airmass pushes into the area. This will allow for afternoon dewpoints to tank and for minimum afternoon relative humidity values to dip to near 20% despite afternoon highs in the low to mid 50`s. This combined with some residual elevated winds around 10 to 15mph gusting upwards of 20 to 25mph may allow for some elevated fire weather concerns, particularly considering we are not currently anticipating any significant rainfall out of this system (generally less than a half inch) in addition to the ongoing drought conditions across the area. Worthwhile to keep an eye on, particularly if forecast winds increase. Once we get past all of that, we return to a much calmer pattern (one that may last for the next week or two). Highs gradually rebound through the week, reaching the 60`s again by Wednesday and perhaps reaching 80 again by Friday. No rain is expected the rest of the week. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 VFR flight category continues to persist across the region, with perhaps some MVFR ceilings settling in prior to daybreak Sunday. VFR flight category will return once again by mid morning Sunday. Winds will remain generally out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots gusting to 20 knots during the day Sunday. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Onshore flow strengthens today ahead of a cold front. Winds abruptly turn northwesterly behind the front by early Monday. Small craft conditions are expected by Monday with the potential for frequent gale force gusts behind the front. Strong offshore flow will persist through at least Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory and Gale Watch have been issued. Winds and seas gradually relax again by mid- week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 57 79 45 / 0 0 10 100 Pensacola 74 62 76 49 / 0 10 20 90 Destin 73 62 74 51 / 0 20 20 90 Evergreen 80 55 80 42 / 0 0 10 100 Waynesboro 77 54 80 39 / 0 0 10 100 Camden 78 56 79 40 / 0 10 10 100 Crestview 80 56 79 46 / 0 20 20 90 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655- 670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1262497 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 157 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing potential for impactful severe weather across the region ahead of a strong cold front. The Storm Prediction Center maintains an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) on Monday, but has increased the probs to 45% for much of the area. All severe hazards (wind, hail, and tornadoes) are possible. A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles late Monday morning through early Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)...Showers and storms prevail Monday, following increasing moisture and shower chances late Sunday as a warm front lifts north. The greatest threat for severe storms will be Monday, from late morning through the afternoon or early evening hours. SPC maintains an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for most of the CWA Monday. 2) Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains dry, with seasonable temperatures returning late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms prevail Monday, following increasing moisture and shower chances late Sunday as a warm front lifts north. The greatest threat for severe storms will be Monday, from late morning through the afternoon or early evening hours. SPC maintains an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for most of the CWA Monday. A cold front has pushed S of the area, with very dry air in its wake this aftn. Temperatures are mostly in the 60s under a thick batch of high clouds, which will shift north with time later this evening and tonight. High pressure settles in from the N tonight, with the flow turning onshore. Lows range from the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Will quickly see increasing clouds Sunday with strengthening easterly flow on the cool side of a warm front lifting north. Enough moisture convergence and lift makes it into far southern VA and NE NC by mid-late afternoon for some low-end shower chances. Highs Sunday will mostly be in the 60s, but will range from the 50s at the immediate coast and on the eastern shore due to the onshore flow off the cold waters, with a few locations across interior NE NC potentially near 70F if the rain holds off until late. Shower chances increase more significantly in the evening as the deeper moisture lifts north. Forecast soundings show little in the way sfc-based instability until after ~09Z/5AM Monday which will be confined to the far S. Instability aloft does increase earlier, and MU CAPE of 200-400 J/Kg spread north after midnight which could lead to a few rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will be quite mild Sunday night with lows only falling into the 50s across the area, and probably rising overnight in many areas as the southerly low level flow increases. The setup on Monday continues to be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms, with all modes of severe possible (wind, hail, tornadoes). The latest guidance continues to be in excellent agreement showing an extremely robust mid and upper level trough amplifying well to our west late Sunday, while taking on a negative tilt, and eventually becoming nearly cutoff over the western Great Lakes Monday. At the sfc, intense low pressure is forecast to lift NE from the mid MS Valley to the western Great Lakes late Sun night/early Mon, with all of the forecast models depicting this feature deepening to 980mb or lower and then occluding as the surface and upper level features stack vertically. The 12Z/14 GFS/ECMWF/GEM are still in very good agreement with the timing Monday, showing a secondary, deepening sfc trough along the Appalachians Monday morning, shifting east to the coast by early evening. The only model that differs significantly is the NAM, which is slower (and often verifies too slow). Ahead of the trough/cold front, robust moisture transport will bring 60s dew points northward into the entire region. Very strong winds aloft (on the order 120-150 kts) will overspread the region on Monday in tandem with a 60-70 kt low level jet. Deep layer shear will likely be in excess of 50 kts which is more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms, and potential supercells. The deepening sfc trough will enhance what will already be impressive shear, and potentially allow the sfc to 1 km winds to back to the SSE ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings/hodographs show very favorable curvature in the low levels with 0-1 SRH generally on the order of 200-400 m2/s2, and 0-3km SRH even higher. The local area will be in the right entrance region of the mid and upper level jet on Monday which will provide forcing for ascent even well ahead of the surface cold front. The degree of destabilization remains somewhat in question with widespread cloud cover and scattered precipitation leftover from early monday morning. However, most guidance now shows 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE which will be more than enough instability given the extreme kinematic environment in place. Low level confluence bands well ahead of the front and favorable jet forcing should prove sufficient for prefrontal convection/supercells on Monday. If this convection can maintain a discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, during the late morning/midday hrs through much of the aftn, all severe hazards will be a concern, particularly the potential for tornadoes, some of which would have the potential to be strong. SPC has maintained a broad Day 3 Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for all but the Eastern Shore, where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) is forecast., but the probs have been increased to 45% for much of the area W of the Bay. The cold front moves into the area from the west by mid to late afternoon with the a probable shift to more of a quasi- linear mode, with an increasing threat for damaging straight line winds and embedded QLCS tornadoes. The front should translate offshore during the evening hours with severe threat ending from west to east. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely for most of the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains dry, with seasonable temperatures returning late in the week. The airmass behind this system will be much cooler (actually trending to well below normal Tue-Wed) as well as significantly drier. Highs mainly in the 40s Tue-Wed. Most of the area can expect a hard freeze Tue night/Wed AM as strong >1030mb sfc high builds overhead, with diminishing winds and lows ranging through the 20s. Even the coast will likely see at least a light freeze with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, the possible exception being the NC OBX. Gradually trending warmer by late in the week, and remaing dry with highs back into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions are in place this morning with mostly clear skies. SE winds mainly 5-10 kt through sunrise, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt as mixing gets underway. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower through the day and MVFR CIGs possible by the mid-late afternoon at ECG, ORF, PHF, and RIC. A few showers are also possible near ECG after 20z but will be scattered in nature. Showers become more prevalent after 00z Monday as well as IFR CIGs. Some restricted VSBY is also possible in showers and fog. A period of LIFR CIGs is possible late in the period as a warm front lifts northward. LLWS will also increase this evening, mainly SE at 45 kt. Outlook: LLWS is also possible for most of the overnight hours Sunday. A strong cold front will bring the potential for additional flight restrictions and strong to severe TSRA Monday. Even outside of any storms, strong, gusty southerly winds prevail into Mon evening with gusts to 25-35 kt expected. Dry/VFR Tue with breezy WNW winds, remaining dry Wed-Thu with less wind. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A strong cold front approaches from the west Monday and crosses the coast Monday night. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for tomorrow over the Bay, Sound and southern coastal zones south of Cape Charles. SCA are likely on Monday, with gale conditions possible. A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles late Monday morning through early Tuesday. - There is a risk for strong thunderstorm wind gusts, and potentially a few waterspouts on Monday, as the front moves through. High pressure is situated across the Great Lakes region, with a low pressure system lifting northeastward away from Atlantic Canada. The gradient has relaxed early this evening, allowing winds to veer around to the E this evening in the wake of a weak cold front. Marine- based observations are measuring winds of ~5-10 kts across the Bay and coastal waters with seas of 2-3 ft, waves 1 ft or less. Winds will continue to trend down through late this evening, as high pressure slides eastward across the Mid- Atlantic and with no notable CAA with the aforementioned front expected. This high will shift off the New England coast and strengthen to ~1033mb during the day on Sunday, and SCA have been issued for E-SE winds ~20 kt in the Ches Bay and lower James. A bit more marginal over the rest of the rivers, so have held off there for now. SCA runs through Sun night, with more notable SCA conditions likely late Sun night and especially on Monday. On Monday, a deepening low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes region, dragging an associated cold front through the local waters in the afternoon/evening hours. High end-SCA conditions are likely ahead of the front, with low end gale conditions possible, especially in the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. This will be a more marginal gale due to the cooler water temps, but modestly strong pressure falls, a tight pressure gradient, and a 60- 5kt LLJ do favor a period of southerly gales. Have gone ahead and issued a gale watch for these coastal waters as this is where confidence is highest that a more prolonged period of gale force gusts will be realized, though the southern coastal waters could see a brief period of low-end gusts. Additionally, along and potentially ahead of the front, there is a risk for strong thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a few waterspouts across the local waters, which will be handled with Special Marine Warnings. Seas build to 5-8 ft S to 9-12 ft N Monday into Monday night, with 3-5 ft waves in the Ches. Bay and locally higher at the mouth of the Bay. More benign marine conditions are expected by the middle of next week as high pressure settles across the region. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638. Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1262496 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1250 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Key Messages: * A heat spike with record to near record-breaking, triple digit temperatures are expected on Sunday; A Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is expected across much of the region on Sunday. * A strong cold front Sunday night will result in a 40-50F degree temperature drop from Sunday afternoon`s highs to Monday morning`s lows. * Strong northerly winds 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 45-60 mph is expected Sunday night into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday night into Monday. * A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday due to the combination of low relative humidity values and strong northerly winds. * Strong northerly winds will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions Sunday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A multi-faceted, multi-hazard weather event that includes a heightened threat for wildfires along with multiple coastal/marine hazards and high winds is expected to take place in the next 24-48 hours of Sunday evening through Monday. Following a heat spike that will include record to near record-breaking temperatures with many areas topping the century mark, ultimately resulting in Moderate (Level 2 of 5) Heat Risk on Sunday, a powerful cold front will generate drastic and significant changes to the weather pattern that includes a 40-50F degree plunge in temperatures from Sunday`s highs to Monday morning`s lows. The latest GOES-19 Infrared satellite imagery depicted a mainly clear sky across Deep South Texas with some low level streamer clouds moving inland near the coast. Despite the decreased mixing heights, south-southeasterly winds will remain elevated through tonight due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Warm air advection (WAA) from the southerly winds will help to keep overnight low temperatures mild, slightly above normal with values in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to the upper 60s/near 70F degrees along the Rio Grande Valley. During the day on Sunday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, a dryline will push through the western half of the area, triggering a wind shift out of the west. Strong compressional heating from westerly winds near the sfc and aloft will exacerbate the heating across the region. This will result in a heat spike with high temperatures surging into the mid 90s to lower 100s. These values, which will be well above normal on the order of 15-20F+ degrees will be at record to near record-breaking levels (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). Elevated fire weather concerns are possible on Sunday for at least parts of the area. Behind the dryline, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20s and teens. Winds look to hold just below criteria. That said, trends need to be monitored on Sunday for a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) across at least parts of the area. Significant and drastic weather changes are then expected to take place Sunday evening/night. Numerous global forecast models and ensembles continue to show an anomalously strong and broad 591-594 mb mid-upper Sonoran ridge/heat dome developing over the Southwestern U.S. Sunday evening. This enormous and strong weather feature will result in an early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S. Meanwhile, on the east or leeward side of this feature, northwest winds aloft will help to drive a powerful sfc cold front southward through the central U.S. This cold front is associated with a maturing and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone that will bring a combination of winter weather including blizzard conditions to the northern Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest to severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to parts of the Midwest and South Sunday afternoon/evening. Behind this cold front is a modified Arctic airmass that will envelope much of the country, particularly the interior U.S. Sunday evening through Monday morning, this cold front is expected to sweep through all of Texas including Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Following the cold fropa, temperatures a expected to sharply fall. After a day on record to near record-breaking, triple digit heating, a 40-50F degree drop off in temperature is expected to occur behind the cold front by Monday morning with overnight lows progged to be in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands to the mid-upper 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. In addition to the sharp drop off in temps, a tight pressure and thermal gradient will result in strong, potentially damaging winds developing Sunday night and especially on Monday. Northerly winds 25- 35 mph gusting as high as 50 mph is expected. There could be instances where winds gusts as high as 50-60 mph on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties from 10 PM CDT Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday. We will keep close watch on forecast trends to see if we need to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Regardless, it`s possible that wind gusts could at times in spots exceed 55 mph on Monday. The combination of strong winds and low relative humidity values behind the front will trigger critical fire weather risks on Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). In addition to the fire weather concerns on Monday, strong winds Sunday through Monday will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions (see MARINE SECTION for more details). With a 1020-1030 mb modified Arctic airmass in place over the southern Plains and a full cold air advection (CAA) regime in place, high temperatures on Monday will be cooler or below normal levels with values holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday night will be the coldest of the period with the help of adequate radiational cooling amid clear skies. Overnight lows Monday night are progged to be in the 40s most places to 50s along/near the coast. Beyond Monday, a warming trend will take place through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning to unseasonably warm levels by Thursday of next week. Dry/rain-free conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Moderate to gusty south winds and patchy low stratus prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Will include TEMPO wording at local terminals due to periodic low stratus with some prevailing MVFR around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Breezy southeast to south winds will persist this morning into the afternoon. A dryline/surface boundary will approach from the west this afternoon resulting in a wind shift and lighter winds at MFE. Light to moderate winds late this evening will increase late in the period as a strong cold front approaches the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 7 AM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Sunday night due to strong southerly winds sustained at or above 20 kts. A Gale Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters Sunday night through Monday evening for gusts topping 40 kts. Monday night, marine conditions look to improve. Wednesday through next weekend, favorable marine conditions can be expected with low to moderate winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Sunday for at least parts of the area. A dryline is expected to pass through the western half of the region Sunday afternoon. Westerly winds will trigger strong compressional heating and a heat spike on Sunday. The combination of hot temperatures, an ongoing drought, low relative humidity values, and at times breezy winds could result in an elevated risk for fire danger on Sunday. The wildcard will be how strong the winds get. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island for Monday due to a critical risk for fire danger. A strong cold front will result in strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday. Strong winds combined with low relative humidity values will result in a critical wildfire risk on Monday. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is likely. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Strong compressional heating on westerly winds behind a dryline will result in a heat spike with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s most places. This will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Sunday. Below are the record high temperatures for March 15th. Record Highs for March 15: Brownsville (BRO): 98F degrees in 2008 Harlingen (HRL): 100F degrees in 2008 McAllen (MFE): 103F degrees in 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 59 66 53 71 / 20 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 52 67 46 73 / 20 10 0 10 MCALLEN 55 71 50 77 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 54 70 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 65 58 67 / 30 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 67 53 71 / 20 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Monday evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. Gale Watch from this evening through Monday evening for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1262495 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy conditions expected Sunday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. - Another cooldown is on the way after the next cold front, which will be accompanied by showers/storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong storms are possible along the frontal boundary. - A Wind Advisory is in effect Sunday morning and will continue into Monday afternoon for all of Southeast TX. - Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Watch is in effect Sunday night through Monday afternoon. - Monitoring the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Tranquil conditions expected tonight with southerly winds at around 10 mph and lows in the 60s. Some isolated locations could see some patchy fog, but winds will likely be strong enough to deter fog development for most locations. We will, however, have low cloud decks develop tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions will warm up quick on Sunday as moisture converges ahead of cold front, and highs will be peaking in the mid to upper 80s inland and the upper 70s along the coasts. Breezy conditions are expected for much of the day as the pressure gradient tightens prior to the frontal passage. Winds will be south-southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of around 25 to 30 mph. A Wind Advisory will be in effect starting at 10 AM Sunday. Make sure to secure loose objects. For those wanting to visit the beaches, make sure to verify the marine and beach flag conditions given that winds and seas will be rising and strong rip currents may develop along the beaches. Model guidance has been consistent on how fast the cold front is to move across Southeast Texas. The front will be very progressive, progged to arrive the Brazos Valley and Piney woods region roughly around 4 pm and make it into the coastal Gulf waters around 9 pm. With respect to rain chances, moisture will be a bit limited with PWs rising to around 0.8-0.9 inches, and forecast soundings still show capping during the morning to mid afternoon hours. Thus, very limited rain activity is expected ahead of the front. Showers and storms are likely to be focused along the boundary as instability increases (weakening the cap), moisture converges strengthens, and we have the added lift from the front. Mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km and shear will be present as the front rolls through as well. There is the potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds and hail. SPC continues a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over the Piney Woods region and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of Southeast TX. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings. Cold dry air along with a 50-60 knot low level jet will quickly filter in behind the front Sunday night. Expect strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday - speeds will range between 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph, highest over the coastal locations. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect through 6 PM Monday. Make sure to secure loose and light outdoor objects. Strong winds could also lead to power outages at times. The temperatures Sunday night will dip fast with temperatures expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for many locations by sunrise on Monday. Winds begin to slowly decrease Monday afternoon and the colder conditions prevail with highs in the 50s - a stark difference from Sunday`s warm temperatures. But we`re not mad about it at all :D. The one thing we will have to monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated fire weather given how dry and windy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds will relax to around 5-10 mph early Monday night and CAA will continue during the nighttime hours, giving us the coldest temperatures for this week. Expect lows to be in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with highs back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 VFR through this evening, then expect MVFR cigs developing tonight into early Sun morning over much of SE Texas. S-SE winds will remain rather elevated, roughly around 10 knots tonight. On Sun, winds will become S-SW and increase to 12-18 knots with gusts of around 22-28 knots. A very progressive cold front will move through SE Texas Sun late afternoon to evening and will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, some possibly becoming strong to severe. Main hazards with these storms will be strong damaging winds and hail. In the wake of the FROPA, expect strong N winds at 20-25 knots with gusts of 28-35 knots Sun night into Mon morning along with llvl wind shear of around 50 knots (WS020/35050KT). Winds will begin to relax Mon afternoon and relax to around 5 knots Mon night. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 2-3 feet expected tonight. Winds increase Sunday ahead of a strong cold front and seas will gradually build. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 10 PM Sunday. For those visiting the beaches on Sunday, make sure to check the beach flag conditions given that there will be the potential for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches. The cold front will move into the coastal waters very quickly early Sunday night. Associated showers and thunderstorms will be mostly focused along the boundary as it pushes through and some of these storms could become strong to severe. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-45 knots will develop. A Gale Warning will likely be in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. In addition, low water levels are possible in the bays. Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south- southwesterly Friday into Saturday. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday`s front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 54 34 66 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 56 40 64 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 58 49 61 / 50 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>439. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Gale Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for GMZ330- 335-350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1262494 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 114 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. High wind watches for RI and eastern MA and storm watches for the waters continue. Flood Watches may need to be issued today for the potential of flooding of rivers, small streams as well as urban and poor drainage areas. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temperatures today before conditions start to worsen tonight into Monday - Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. - A period of strong to damaging winds expected across portions of SNE Monday night. - Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thursday and especially Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temperatures today before conditions start to worsen tonight into Monday. Mid-level ridging persists today with surface high pressure as well before a warm front brings more unsettled conditions tonight into Monday. Strong winds from the day before have diminished considerably as ridging has built in overnight. Lighter winds from the SE can be expected this afternoon. Seasonable highs in the mid 40s along with a mix of sun and clouds will be the result today. This respite will be short-lived though as a warm front will lift north across southern New England. Showers will start to move into the region tonight, mostly after midnight, and SE winds will begin to strengthen behind the front. Lows tonight will fall mostly in the low 30s; upper 20s possible in the higher elevations. KEY MESSAGE 2...Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. Guidance has continued to show significantly above average PWAT values for this time of year associated with this system and is supportive of total QPF approaching 2" for much of southern New England. Strong southerly flow ahead of a powerful low will kick up heading into Monday night, which will help advect in significant moisture. PWAT values approaching 1.5" are possible, and with the stronger forcing that comes with a strong LLJ, widespread amounts of rain to 2" are possible. The NAM has been depicting a fine line feature developing in the latest runs, too, and MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg could lend to isolated t-storms developing. These could lead to localized higher rain totals approaching 3"+ (more details on possible severe weather in KEY MESSAGE 3). This additional rain would also have a greater impact on the above normal stream levels we`ve been seeing with the snowmelt and rain we`ve seen lately, so some streams and rivers could see flooding. Spots of poor drainage in urban areas could lead to localized flooding as well. KEY MESSAGE 3...A period of strong to damaging winds expected across portions of SNE Monday night. While winds will be ramping up Mon afternoon, the main concern will be Mon night as a very impressive and anomalous low level jet develops ahead of a strong cold front and lifts across SNE. 3K NAM showing 90-100 kt at 925 mb moving up along the SE New Eng coast 03- 06z and exiting Cape Cod by 09z. Up to 80 kt extends back to the I- 95 corridor. The biggest challenge is determining how much of this wind will be able to mix down as we will have a low level inversion in place with NAM soundings showing a strong inversion over the Islands and adjacent waters which complicates the forecast. How mild it can get Mon evening as well as a potential fine line of convection will be a significant factor to damaging wind potential. High confidence that temps will reach the upper 50s with a chance temps could get to 60+ away from the immediate south coast. Soundings indicate damaging wind potential increases significantly if temps get to 60F or higher as inversion would weaken considerably. 3K NAM also indicating a fine line of convection along the front which seems more than reasonable given the strong low level convergence and elevated instability. Any fine line or pre- frontal convective elements would also increase damaging wind potential. It is interesting to note that CSU machine learning probs have severe wind probs and 2% tornado probs across SNE but think this is more of a reflection of damaging wind potential with the fine line as surface based convection is unlikely unless we can get temps to 62-63F with dewpoints 60+. At the very least, even if cooler temps win out with stronger inversion in place, taking 50 percent of the LLJ would suggest at least 45-55 mph gusts, with risk for 60-70 mph gusts and power outages if the inversion weakens. We will continue the high wind watch across RI and eastern MA where highest risk for damaging wind gusts, but wait until we get into the HREF window before potentially upgrading to warnings. Wind advisories will also likely be needed further west across CT and portions of central and western MA. KEY MESSAGE 4...Mainly dry and trending much colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thursday and especially Friday. We will be in the post-frontal airmass on Tue with colder and much drier air advecting in from the west in the cold advection pattern. It will also be blustery with soundings showing a well mixed boundary layer supporting west gusts to 25-35 mph at times. The cold will peak Tue night into Wed as 850 mb temps drop to -15 to -18C around 12z Wed. Lows Tue night will drop into the teens and low 20s with Wed highs in the 30s. Winds will remain gusty into Tue evening then diminish late Tue night and Wed as high pres builds into the region. Temps then moderate Thu into Fri with temps getting back into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Fri. Looks mainly dry through the end of the week with chance of showers sometime Fri night or Sat as a frontal system approaches. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z...High Confidence VFR. Gusts continue to drop off through the early morning hours today. Winds remain mostly NW around 5-10 kt. Today...High Confidence VFR. Winds becoming E/SE between 5 and 10 knots after 15Z. Sunday Night...High Confidence Deteriorating conditions Sunday night into Monday as a warm front lifts north over the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility developing after 06Z as light to moderate rain overspreads southern New England. Monday...High Confidence Mostly IFR with RA overspreading the region. Winds increasing and shifting more S through the day. Gusts to 35 kt possible heading into the evening hours. Some isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out, particularly in CT and RI. However, it does remain possible outside of those areas as well. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. RA, patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Night Seas calm to 1-3 ft through the day today as high pressure settles overhead. Winds today over the waters shift more to the SE into the afternoon but remain around 10-15 kt, occasionally gusting to 20 kt over the southern waters. Winds ramp back up tonight into Monday as a powerful low pressure system approaches from the west. Seas increase considerably headed into Monday night, reaching up to 15 ft and even close to 20 ft in the southern waters by 06z Tuesday. Seas 7-10 ft will be more common in the eastern waters. Winds will likely approach storm conditions Monday night. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Rough seas up to 19 ft. Rain, areas fog, slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for MAZ005>007-013>024. RI...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1262493 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 107 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy Fog Early This Morning - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Sunday Afternoon, Mainly I-95. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts, Small Hail - Isolated/Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Monday. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts and a Few Tornadoes - Frost and Light Freeze Possible for Inland Southeast GA & Suwannee && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Strong thunderstorm potential this afternoon/evening, mainly along the US 301 and I-95 corridors of NE FL and into the Atlantic waters Early this morning: Weak warm frontal boundary will lift through the region with a slight chance of showers and increasing low level cloudiness and moisture. This feature will continue to the boundary layers slightly mixed so only patchy/areas of fog will be possible through sunrise, along with some low chances for sea fog along the Atlantic Coast as dew point temps rise into the 60s. Rest of Today: South to Southwest steering flow along with a slug of increasing moisture up the Florida Peninsula into NE FL will increase rainfall and thunderstorm chances this afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland NE FL, while at least numerous showers and storms are expected to develop in daytime heating along the US 301 and I-95 corridors of NE FL, which will interact with the East Coast sea breeze to provide the potential of isolated strong/severe storms with winds gusts of 40-60 mph, along with a lower threat of hail as well. The breezy S to SW flow with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph will push Max temps to well above normal levels with highs in the middle 80s for most locations, while the East Coast sea breeze will hold Max Temps at Atlantic beaches in the mid/upper 70s. Rainfall amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch except higher amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" across NE FL where locally heavy rainfall is possible in the strong storm activity. Tonight: Following the end of evening convection around sunset over inland areas that will push into the Atlantic Coastal waters through the rest of the evening hours, the local area will remain in the warm sector ahead of approaching strong frontal boundary and while a few showers will remain possible in the moist atmosphere, thunderstorm activity will remain limited. The elevated S to SW flow around 10 mph through the night will keep temps well above normal and only fall into the middle 60s for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered strong to severe storms Monday with damaging winds and tornadoes possible - Light freeze and frost potential Tuesday night A strong cold front will bring numerous showers and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area on Monday. Storm chances will primarily be in the morning for southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley, and afternoon for northeast Florida, most activity will be south of the forecast area after sunset. Ahead of the front, breezy southwest flow will raise PWATs near 1.5", although with the front moving relatively fast, rainfall totals are forecast to be around 0.5-1.0" through Monday night. Given ample shear and instability, both damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are of concern Monday. A light freeze is possible for portions of inland southeast Georgia, but it will be too breezy for frost Monday night. Much cooler and drier air will infiltrate in behind the front, with highs 50s areawide Tuesday with northwesterly winds. Overnight, lows will dip into the 30s for inland southeast Georgia and most of inland northeast Florida, with low to mid 40 elsewhere. Lows will dance around or under freezing for most of inland southeast Georgia, with calm winds promoting frost development. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Frost and Freeze for inland southeast Georgia Wednesday morning - Fire weather concerns due to critically low relative humidity Temperatures will gradually warm up through the rest of the week as high pressure dominates. Wednesday will remain below average for high temperatures, but by Friday and Saturday highs will climb into the upper 70s to 80s. A period of onshore northeasterly winds will continue through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... A warm frontal boundary lifting northward through the terminals will be producing lower than normal confidence in CIGS towards sunrise as current VFR CIGS at the start of the period are expected to lower to IFR and LIFR CIGS in the 09-12Z at all TAF sites with IFR/MVFR VSBYS expected as well. Will keep this current trend in the forecast but still low confidence in this developing at all TAF sites. Improving conditions back to mainly VFR by the 15Z time frame with increasing S-SW winds at 10-12G15-18 knots through the afternoon hours with increasing shower and potential storm chances, mainly in the 20-02Z time frame and will place predominant VFR SHRA at the terminals with a PROB30 group for MVFR TSRA activity with wind gust potential to 30 knots. Rainfall chances lessen in the 03-06Z time frame with some lingering MVFR CIGS and light SW winds at 5-10 knots through the end of the current TAF period. && .MARINE... A warm front will lift north of the local waters this morning. Some patchy fog may also form this morning near the coast. Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. South winds will strengthen to Caution levels this evening across our local waters ahead of a strong cold front with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing late tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as the strong cold front crosses our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread over the waters early in the day. The cold front will cross over the waters Monday afternoon with strengthening northwest winds behind it. Occasional gusts to Gale Force are possible by Monday afternoon and night. Strong high pressure will build to the north of the area mid week creating strong northeast winds and rough seas. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected Today with South to Southeast flow at local beaches along with surf/breakers of 2-4 ft along with a greater impact from potential storm activity this afternoon and evening. Developing strong offshore flow on Monday will knock surf down slightly to 2-3 ft, but a Moderate risk of rips will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Inland Minrh Levels Below 30 Percent Tuesday Through Thursday AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND - Again Thursday Through Saturday Breezy southwest winds today and Monday will increase dispersion across the area, and dispersion will remain high behind a cold frontal passage Monday when winds shift northerly. The cold front will pass through the area, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday, some of which may be strong to severe. Behind the front, much cooler and drier conditions are expected with minRH values below 30% for much of the area Tuesday through Thursday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday, with potential for strong to severe storms, especially on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 63 74 33 / 40 50 90 10 SSI 74 64 75 39 / 50 50 90 20 JAX 85 65 80 37 / 60 60 90 20 SGJ 83 65 81 40 / 80 80 90 30 GNV 86 65 80 37 / 70 60 100 20 OCF 86 65 81 40 / 80 70 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1262491 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 - Another line of severe storms will move through the region late on Sunday ahead of the next cold front. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. - There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday morning. - Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday behind a strong cold front. A wind advisory is also in place for coastal locations and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain on Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Overall, there has been little change in the forecast from the previous packages. A potent area of low pressure in the Midwest and Great Lakes states will drive a very strong cold front through the region Sunday night. An equally strong arctic high of at least 1030mb will then quickly build in behind the front on Monday. In the upper levels, an associated longwave trough will continue to dominate the eastern half of the country through the short term period, and this will keep deep layer northerly flow in place. The end result will be a colder and drier stretch of weather after the front moves through. However, before the front approaches, Sunday will exceptionally warm as strong onshore flow develops and ushers in a significantly warmer and more humid airmass by the afternoon hours. PWATS will quickly rise to around 1.25 inches and temperatures will surge into the low to even middle 80s. These conditions will help to prime the atmosphere in advance of the front as conditions turn fairly unstable. MLCAPE values are still expected to peak around 1500 J/KG Sunday evening in response to steepening mid-level lapse rates that could reach as high as 7.5C/km just ahead of the front. With strong low level forcing and ample positive vorticity advection and lift aloft in place, there will be little if any convective inhibition to speak of in the evening hours. As a result, a fairly stout line of thunderstorms will develop over the Arklatex and then push to the east-southeast into the region Sunday evening. This fast moving line will encounter marginally favorable shear conditions as it moves in with effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and 0-1km SRH values of around 150m2/s2. Although the dynamics will be somewhat limiting, there will still be the potential for a few bowing segments and damaging wind events to occur over the northern and western portion of the CWA. Later Sunday night, all of the convectively aided high resolution guidance indicates that the initial line of convection will begin to weaken as it moves toward the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. However, the development of another LLJ over southern Mississippi and lower Alabama will support the development of a pre-frontal trough axis that could initially develop somewhere in the vicinity of New Orleans and Gulfport. Increasing low level shear will take hold in advance of this pre-frontal trough axis with 0-1km SRH values increasing to around 200 m2/s2 and effective shear rising to 40 to 50 knots. With ample instability in place and these favorable shear parameters, a few supercells could form over extreme southeast Louisiana, the offshore waters, and the Mississippi coast during the overnight hours Sunday, generally between 2 AM and 5 AM. This is the area that would have the highest risk of seeing a tornado or two develop during the overnight hours, and we will need to monitor the trends to see if this pre-frontal trough continues to be shown in the guidance. Monday will be a day of rapid clearing as very strong negative voriticty, dry air, and cold air advection takes hold. Temperatures will start off in the 40s behind the front Monday morning and will only rise into the 50s. These readings are a good 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Very windy conditions are also expected on Monday in the wake of the front as the strong high builds in from the north. Winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph are expected along the coast and south of the tidal lakes. Given these conditions, a wind advisory is now in effect for these areas. The other concern will be the high potential for wildfires to occur as humidity values fall below 25 percent. A fire weather watch or red flag warning will likely be issued during the day tomorrow. The colder air will continue to feed in on the back of a strong 925mb thermal trough axis Monday night, and a light freeze is anticipated for the northern half of the forecast area. Given the warm conditions and greening up that has occurred a freeze watch will likely be issued tomorrow and this will be followed up by a freeze warning for the area on Monday that will cover the Monday night freeze event. The colder conditions will persist on Tuesday as a reinforcing dry frontal passage occurs in the deep layer northwest flow regime. Highs will once again only warm into the 50s and lows will cool into the 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to the heart of the thermal trough finally beginning to shift to the east. A light freeze may once again occur in the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages though. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Persistent troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS and a strong ridge over the Rockies and Plains will keep northerly flow in place through Saturday. This will result in continued very dry conditions through the end of the week. However, temperatures will quickly modify in the long term period as the main thermal trough axis shifts well to the northeast of the region. In the low levels, a broad surface high pressure system will remain centered over the region and this will keep winds fairly light and variable. Temperatures will remain cooler than average in the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday, but will climb above average by Friday and Saturday as readings reach into the low to mid 80s. Given the dry airmass in place, a decent diurnal range of around 30 degrees will allow lows to fall into the 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 VFR conditions will remain in place at all of the terminals through Sunday afternoon. Winds will turn breezy at over 12 knots by 18z from the south and these winds will persist through 00z. However, a strong cold front will move into the area between 00z and 06z. A line of showers and storms will accompany the frontal passage a brief period of MVFR and occasionally IFR visibility and ceiling restrictions will accompany the frontal passage. Winds will also quickly turn to the northwest after the front moves through. && .MARINE... Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A deepening area of low pressure to the north of the region will allow winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon hours over the waters. Sunday night into early Monday will see a strong cold front pass through the waters. As the front passes, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. These gale conditions will push seas over 12 feet in the open Gulf waters creating very hazardous boating conditions. The gale conditions will slightly improve into small craft advisory conditions Monday night, and further easing of the winds will occur on Tuesday as another high pressure system becomes more centered over the waters. As the high becomes centered over the waters on Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and fall to 10 knots or less. Seas will also decrease back to 3 feet or less by Wednesday morning. These more benign conditions will linger through the end of the week as the high pressure system remains in place over the waters. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ056>060- 064>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>090. GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ086>088. GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1262490 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 15.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1136 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Key Messages: * A heat spike with record to near record-breaking, triple digit temperatures are expected on Sunday; A Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is expected across much of the region on Sunday. * A strong cold front Sunday night will result in a 40-50F degree temperature drop from Sunday afternoon`s highs to Monday morning`s lows. * Strong northerly winds 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 45-60 mph is expected Sunday night into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday night into Monday. * A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday due to the combination of low relative humidity values and strong northerly winds. * Strong northerly winds will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions Sunday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A multi-faceted, multi-hazard weather event that includes a heightened threat for wildfires along with multiple coastal/marine hazards and high winds is expected to take place in the next 24-48 hours of Sunday evening through Monday. Following a heat spike that will include record to near record-breaking temperatures with many areas topping the century mark, ultimately resulting in Moderate (Level 2 of 5) Heat Risk on Sunday, a powerful cold front will generate drastic and significant changes to the weather pattern that includes a 40-50F degree plunge in temperatures from Sunday`s highs to Monday morning`s lows. The latest GOES-19 Infrared satellite imagery depicted a mainly clear sky across Deep South Texas with some low level streamer clouds moving inland near the coast. Despite the decreased mixing heights, south-southeasterly winds will remain elevated through tonight due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Warm air advection (WAA) from the southerly winds will help to keep overnight low temperatures mild, slightly above normal with values in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to the upper 60s/near 70F degrees along the Rio Grande Valley. During the day on Sunday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, a dryline will push through the western half of the area, triggering a wind shift out of the west. Strong compressional heating from westerly winds near the sfc and aloft will exacerbate the heating across the region. This will result in a heat spike with high temperatures surging into the mid 90s to lower 100s. These values, which will be well above normal on the order of 15-20F+ degrees will be at record to near record-breaking levels (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). Elevated fire weather concerns are possible on Sunday for at least parts of the area. Behind the dryline, relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20s and teens. Winds look to hold just below criteria. That said, trends need to be monitored on Sunday for a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) across at least parts of the area. Significant and drastic weather changes are then expected to take place Sunday evening/night. Numerous global forecast models and ensembles continue to show an anomalously strong and broad 591-594 mb mid-upper Sonoran ridge/heat dome developing over the Southwestern U.S. Sunday evening. This enormous and strong weather feature will result in an early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S. Meanwhile, on the east or leeward side of this feature, northwest winds aloft will help to drive a powerful sfc cold front southward through the central U.S. This cold front is associated with a maturing and dynamic mid-latitude cyclone that will bring a combination of winter weather including blizzard conditions to the northern Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest to severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to parts of the Midwest and South Sunday afternoon/evening. Behind this cold front is a modified Arctic airmass that will envelope much of the country, particularly the interior U.S. Sunday evening through Monday morning, this cold front is expected to sweep through all of Texas including Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Following the cold fropa, temperatures a expected to sharply fall. After a day on record to near record-breaking, triple digit heating, a 40-50F degree drop off in temperature is expected to occur behind the cold front by Monday morning with overnight lows progged to be in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands to the mid-upper 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. In addition to the sharp drop off in temps, a tight pressure and thermal gradient will result in strong, potentially damaging winds developing Sunday night and especially on Monday. Northerly winds 25- 35 mph gusting as high as 50 mph is expected. There could be instances where winds gusts as high as 50-60 mph on Monday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Brooks, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties from 10 PM CDT Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday. We will keep close watch on forecast trends to see if we need to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Regardless, it`s possible that wind gusts could at times in spots exceed 55 mph on Monday. The combination of strong winds and low relative humidity values behind the front will trigger critical fire weather risks on Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island on Monday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). In addition to the fire weather concerns on Monday, strong winds Sunday through Monday will result in hazardous marine and coastal conditions (see MARINE SECTION for more details). With a 1020-1030 mb modified Arctic airmass in place over the southern Plains and a full cold air advection (CAA) regime in place, high temperatures on Monday will be cooler or below normal levels with values holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday night will be the coldest of the period with the help of adequate radiational cooling amid clear skies. Overnight lows Monday night are progged to be in the 40s most places to 50s along/near the coast. Beyond Monday, a warming trend will take place through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning to unseasonably warm levels by Thursday of next week. Dry/rain-free conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Through 00z Monday....VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle, though there could be a few MVFR clouds from time to time. South-southeast winds 10-20 kts gusting as high as 25-30 kts will prevail through much of the 00z TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 7 AM Sunday to 10 PM CDT Sunday night due to strong southerly winds sustained at or above 20 kts. A Gale Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters Sunday night through Monday evening for gusts topping 40 kts. Monday night, marine conditions look to improve. Wednesday through next weekend, favorable marine conditions can be expected with low to moderate winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Sunday for at least parts of the area. A dryline is expected to pass through the western half of the region Sunday afternoon. Westerly winds will trigger strong compressional heating and a heat spike on Sunday. The combination of hot temperatures, an ongoing drought, low relative humidity values, and at times breezy winds could result in an elevated risk for fire danger on Sunday. The wildcard will be how strong the winds get. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the island for Monday due to a critical risk for fire danger. A strong cold front will result in strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday. Strong winds combined with low relative humidity values will result in a critical wildfire risk on Monday. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is likely. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Strong compressional heating on westerly winds behind a dryline will result in a heat spike with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s most places. This will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Sunday. Below are the record high temperatures for March 15th. Record Highs for March 15: Brownsville (BRO): 98F degrees in 2008 Harlingen (HRL): 100F degrees in 2008 McAllen (MFE): 103F degrees in 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 85 69 91 59 / 0 0 0 20 HARLINGEN 90 66 98 52 / 0 0 0 20 MCALLEN 93 69 102 55 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 66 101 54 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 81 60 / 0 0 0 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 67 91 57 / 0 0 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ250- 251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
