|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - ((Unknown Region)) Selection: |
| #1244853 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 407 AM AST Sun Sep 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A couple of tropical waves will increase the frequency of showers and thunderstorms through much of the workweek. This will the risk of flooding elevated. Additional threats include rapid river rises, landslides, and frequent lightning. * The Virgin Islands will also see an increase in showers and thunderstorms, with water surges along the drainage guts, ponding of water on roadways, and occasional lightning and landslides. * Weather will likely improve later in the week and into next weekend, but it will be very hot again for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These heat indices will be affecting anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration. * The risk of rip currents will be moderate for most of the workweek. Also, there is a risk of lightning strikes each afternoon across most of the local beaches in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday... Overnight, relatively calm weather conditions prevailed, with isolated showers moving across local waters and passages. Some of these showers reached parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, resulting in minimal accumulations. Low temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s in coastal and urban areas, and from the upper 60s to low 70s in the mountains. A tropical wave east of the U.S. Virgin Islands is forecast to move over the local islands today. The associated moisture field will begin to enter the area this morning, with precipitable water values exceeding 1.90 inches and potentially reaching 2.30 inches later in the afternoon. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra, showers will gradually increase during the morning, with isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. In Puerto Rico, afternoon convective activity is expected to produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across central and western municipalities, spreading toward the northwestern and northern parts of the island. Streamer activity from "El Yunque" will also impact the San Juan metro area and adjacent municipalities this afternoon. This activity could lead to urban and small stream flooding, rapid river rises, water surges, and landslides. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to bring frequent lightning and gusty winds. With soils already saturated from previous rainfall, the risk of flooding will remain from limited to elevated across the area for the next few days. Residents and visitors are advised to continue monitoring weather conditions throughout the week and plan accordingly, especially in flood- prone areas. By Monday, an atmospheric disturbance will arrive, promoting another round of unstable weather. This disturbance has precipitable water values up to 2.35 inches, which will support another day of strong showers and thunderstorms. Areas previously affected by heavy rain may experience additional flooding and rapid river rises. The 925 mb temperatures are expected to remain at or above-normal for the period. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s along coastal and urban areas, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s in higher elevations. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... A tropical wave crossing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, along with an upper level trough will maintain unsettled weather conditions through Thursday. Precipitable water values are expected to be at 2.0 to 2.25 inches, which is about one standard deviation above normal for mid-September. These features will maintain the probability of precipitation on the high side. Since afternoons have been so active, soils are already saturated and rivers are running high, especially along the interior and western Puerto Rico. Therefore, it is very likely that urban and small stream flooding will continue, each day. Also, rivers may reach flood stage too, while landslides, lightning strikes and gusty winds could also develop. Showers will also reach eastern Puerto Rico at times, and although soils are not as saturated, impacts should be similar. Across the Virgin Islands, periods of showers and thunderstorms will cause water surge along guts and drainage channels, with ponding of water on roadways and isolated urban flood. Moving into Friday and the weekend, the attention shifts toward the system being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. So far, the guidance shows this tropical wave developing and moving toward the northwest before reaching the northeastern Caribbean. As the system moves, it will push some drier air into the islands, so weather conditions should improve, at least in terms of rain. The thing is that although it will not be as wet, winds should shift from the southeast, and 925 mb temperature values will soar, going nearly two standard deviation above normal. As a result, very hot temperatures will come back, with the likelihood of experiencing Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning conditions. This level of heat will impact anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration. && .AVIATION... (06z) Mainly VFR to brief MVFR conds across all terminals during the fcst period. A tropical wave is expected to move into the area today promoting VCSH/VCTS over TIST/TISX/TJSJ thru 14/23Z. SHRA/TSRA will gradually increase over TJBQ/TJPS aft 14/17Z. Reduced VIS, mountain obsc and low cigs expected thru 14/23Z. Sfc winds from the ESE at 10- 14 kts, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 14/14Z. && .MARINE... A surface high-pressure located over the central and eastern Atlantic is interacting with a frontal boundary in the Western Atlantic, resulting in light to moderate east-southeasterly winds through tomorrow. An approaching tropical wave will move over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. After the tropical wave passes, local winds will shift to moderate and occasionally fresh as the high- pressure tightens the local pressure gradient. Another tropical wave is expected to move through the area around Tuesday. && .BEACH FORECAST... The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase to moderate beginning Sunday and persist through most of the workweek, particularly for northern and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Saint Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Even with a low risk, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers, so beachgoers are advised to exercise caution at all times. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon hours, producing dangerous lightning strikes; be prepared to seek shelter if thunder is heard. && .HYDROLOGY... Active afternoons have maintain the soils saturated across most of the interior and western half of Puerto Rico. These periods of heavy rain has also maintain the rivers at above normal to much above normal levels. These unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through much of the workweek, as moisture remains above normal due to a couple of approaching tropical waves. Since soils are saturated, much of the precipitation will quickly become excessive runoff, causing urban or flash flooding, water surges along rivers, rivers going above flood stage, and landslides too. The rivers across the eastern third of Puerto Rico are not as full, but these rivers usually react much faster than the river in the west, hence, periods of heavy rain will likely result in rapid river rises as well. For the Virgin Islands, periods of heavy rain will cause water surges along drainage guts, and ponding of water on roadways. Urban flooding could develop too, while landslides in areas of steep terrain cannot be ruled out. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1244852 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 337 AM AST Sun Sep 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A couple of tropical waves will increase the frequency of showers and thunderstorms through much of the workweek. This will the risk of flooding elevated. Additional threats include rapid river rises, landslides, and frequent lightning. * The Virgin Islands will also see an increase in showers and thunderstorms, with water surges along the drainage guts, ponding of water on roadways, and occasional lightning and landslides. * Weather will likely improve later in the week and into next weekend, but it will be very hot again for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These heat indices will be affecting anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration. * The risk of rip currents will be moderate for most of the workweek. Also, there is a risk of lightning strikes each afternoon across most of the local beaches in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday... Overnight, relatively calm weather conditions prevailed, with isolated showers moving across local waters and passages. Some of these showers reached parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, resulting in minimal accumulations. Low temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s in coastal and urban areas, and from the upper 60s to low 70s in the mountains. A tropical wave east of the U.S. Virgin Islands is forecast to move over the local islands today. The associated moisture field will begin to enter the area this morning, with precipitable water values exceeding 1.90 inches and potentially reaching 2.30 inches later in the afternoon. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra, showers will gradually increase during the morning, with isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. In Puerto Rico, afternoon convective activity is expected to produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across central and western municipalities, spreading toward the northwestern and northern parts of the island. Streamer activity from "El Yunque" will also impact the San Juan metro area and adjacent municipalities this afternoon. This activity could lead to urban and small stream flooding, rapid river rises, water surges, and landslides. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to bring frequent lightning and gusty winds. With soils already saturated from previous rainfall, the risk of flooding will remain from limited to elevated across the area for the next few days. Residents and visitors are advised to continue monitoring weather conditions throughout the weekend and plan accordingly, especially in flood- prone areas. By Monday, an atmospheric disturbance will arrive, promoting another round of unstable weather. This disturbance has precipitable water values up to 2.35 inches, which will support another day of strong showers and thunderstorms. Areas previously affected by heavy rain may experience additional flooding and rapid river rises. The 925 mb temperatures are expected to remain at or above-normal for the period. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s along coastal and urban areas, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s in higher elevations. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... A tropical wave crossing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, along with an upper level trough will maintain unsettled weather conditions through Thursday. Precipitable water values are expected to be at 2.0 to 2.25 inches, which is about one standard deviation above normal for mid-September. These features will maintain the probability of precipitation on the high side. Since afternoons have been so active, soils are already saturated and rivers are running high, especially along the interior and western Puerto Rico. Therefore, it is very likely that urban and small stream flooding will continue, each day. Also, rivers may reach flood stage too, while landslides, lightning strikes and gusty winds could also develop. Showers will also reach eastern Puerto Rico at times, and although soils are not as saturated, impacts should be similar. Across the Virgin Islands, periods of showers and thunderstorms will cause water surge along guts and drainage channels, with ponding of water on roadways and isolated urban flood. Moving into Friday and the weekend, the attention shifts toward the system being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. So far, the guidance shows this tropical wave developing and moving toward the northwest before reaching the northeastern Caribbean. As the system moves, it will push some drier air into the islands, so weather conditions should improve, at least in terms of rain. The thing is that although it will not be as wet, winds should shift from the southeast, and 925 mb temperature values will soar, going nearly two standard deviation above normal. As a result, very hot temperatures will come back, with the likelihood of experiencing Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning conditions. This level of heat will impact anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration. && .AVIATION... (06z) Mainly VFR to brief MVFR conds across all terminals during the fcst period. A tropical wave is expected to move into the area today promoting VCSH/VCTS over TIST/TISX/TJSJ thru 14/23Z. SHRA/TSRA will gradually increase over TJBQ/TJPS aft 14/17Z. Reduced VIS, mountain obsc and low cigs expected thru 14/23Z. Sfc winds from the ESE at 10- 14 kts, with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 14/14Z. && .MARINE... A surface high-pressure located over the central and eastern Atlantic is interacting with a frontal boundary in the Western Atlantic, resulting in light to moderate east-southeasterly winds through tomorrow. An approaching tropical wave will move over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. After the tropical wave passes, local winds will shift to moderate and occasionally fresh as the high- pressure tightens the local pressure gradient. Another tropical wave is expected to move through the area around Tuesday. && .BEACH FORECAST... The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase to moderate beginning Sunday and persist through most of the workweek, particularly for northern and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and Saint Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Even with a low risk, life-threatening rip currents can still occur near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers, so beachgoers are advised to exercise caution at all times. Additionally, thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon hours, producing dangerous lightning strikes; be prepared to seek shelter if thunder is heard. && .HYDROLOGY... Active afternoons have maintain the soils saturated across most of the interior and western half of Puerto Rico. These periods of heavy rain has also maintain the rivers at above normal to much above normal levels. These unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through much of the workweek, as moisture remains above normal due to a couple of approaching tropical waves. Since soils are saturated, much of the precipitation will quickly become excessive runoff, causing urban or flash flooding, water surges along rivers, rivers going above flood stage, and landslides too. The rivers across the eastern third of Puerto Rico are not as full, but these rivers usually react much faster than the river in the west, hence, periods of heavy rain will likely result in rapid river rises as well. For the Virgin Islands, periods of heavy rain will cause water surges along drainage guts, and ponding of water on roadways. Urban flooding could develop too, while landslides in areas of steep terrain cannot be ruled out. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1244851 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 322 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into New England early this week with dry and mild conditions today through at least early Monday. Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting the region late Monday through mid-week, bringing widespread rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. A warmup is expected by late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly cloudy and cool early this morning, with patchy fog possible over the MD Lower Eastern Shore. - Mild today with highs in the low to mid 80s for most. Latest analysis depicted high pressure over Ontario, with surface ridging extending down the east coast across the local area. Meanwhile, a quasi- stationary front remains draped off the Southeast Coast over the Gulf Stream this morning. The front is oriented beneath a mid-level trough, which extends down the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast Coast. A weak area of low pressure has developed along the front and will continue to drift NNW offshore of the coastal Carolinas through the day. The trough to the south is responsible for upper level cloudiness across the SE half of the FA this morning. These clouds will continue to gradually expand across the area today. Meanwhile, additional mid-level clouds associated with a weak shortwave continue to move in from the NW. Temps as of 200 AM ranged from the mid 50 to around 60F inland with mid 60s along the coast. Morning lows in the mid 50s for most inland areas (locally upper 50s) and mid 60s along the coast. Some lows in the lower 50s are once again possible in the typically cooler inland locations, however, cloud cover adds some uncertainty. Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue through the day with fewer clouds NW and more clouds SE. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s NW to the upper 70s to around 80F SE are expected. Clouds linger through tonight with lows around 60F inland and upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting the region from late Monday through mid-week with widespread rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy winds possible. - Locally heavy rain is possible on Tuesday across eastern portions of the area with rainfall totals of 2-3"+ possible. Aloft, a tall ridge continues to build into Canada early this week, orienting SW to NE through mid-week. This creates an upper level cutoff low across the Southeast Mon which slowly moves north into the local area Tue. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure builds SE into New England early this week, ridging into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low off the Southeast coast slowly lifts north along the coast through mid-week. Models continue to differ with respect to the exact track of the low with several models taking the low inland in a NW track into NC and VA Mon night into Tue whereas others keep a more N track. However, given the upper level cutoff low positioned over inland portions of the region, the model solutions favoring a curve to the NW with the surface low, becoming more vertically stacked underneath the cutoff low make more sense. As such, confidence continues to increase in widespread impacts from the coastal low from late Mon through mid-week with widespread rain likely along with breezy winds, particularly along the coast. The NBM continues to increase with PoPs and now has 25-45% PoPs across SE VA/NE NC late Mon afternoon, increasing to 50-60% Mon night and 55-70% Tue into Tue night. The GFS/GEFS had been the outlier showing lower QPF compared to other models/ensembles. However, the 00z GEFS has increased to 0.5-0.75" W of I-95 and 1- 1.5" across eastern portions of the FA. This (while a large increase from the 12z GEFS) is still lower than the EPS which now shows a widespread 1-1.5" across the NW half of the area and 1.5-2" across the SE half of the area. As such, the NBM QPF seems reasonable with ~1" across the far NW portion of the FA, 1-1.5" across most of the area, and a corridor of 2-3" across SE VA/NE NC. Will also note that the deterministic Euro and GFS now both show the potential for localized totals of 3-4" across SE VA/NE NC. As such, WPC has added a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern VA and NE NC on Tue. Will also note that there now appears to be at least a low- end chance for some embedded thunderstorms across mainly SE VA/NE NC Mon night into Tue due to an enhanced area of FGEN north of the low. Additionally, gusty NE winds are expected, especially along the coast, Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient between the high to the north and the coastal low tightens. Gusts up to ~20 mph inland and ~35 mph along the coast are possible. Given the increased confidence in widespread rainfall, temps have also trended cooler on Tue with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most (mid 70s across far SE VA/NE NC). If these trends continue, would not be surprised if many inland areas do not see highs above the 60s on Tue and Wed. See climate section below for more information. Highs will be warmer on Mon with temps around 80F NW to the mid 70s SE expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering impacts from a coastal low are likely on Wednesday with additional rain and cooler weather expected. - A warmup is expected by late week with cooler weather returning next Sunday. The upper level low washes out across the region Wed into Thu with the coastal low weakening as it lifts N. However, widespread light to moderate rain likely continues into Wed with 40-65% PoPs. This will allow for cooler temps once again with many inland areas struggling to get out of the 60s. Highs across eastern portions of the area in the mid 70s are possible. Rainfall rates and totals are not expected to be as high Wed as Tue with additional rainfall totals of 0.25-0.5" expected across most of the area. Clouds linger into Thu with some clearing skies possible in the late afternoon. As such, highs are expected to be warmer on Thu with temps in the upper 70s for most (locally around 80F). The upper level ridge moves into the East Coast Fri into Sat with a warmup expected (highs in the mid 80s Fri and low-mid 80s Sat). A trough moves into the region next Sun with CAD potentially developing as high pressure slides off the New England coast. As such, cooler weather (highs in the mid 70s) is possible. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Generally VFR conditions continue through the 6z TAF period across the terminals. However, some patchy fog is possible at SBY between 8-12z with brief IFR VIS possible. Otherwise, SCT- BKN cirrus continue to push inland from the south with a batch of mid to high level clouds moving SE into the northern portion of the FA. As such, expect partly cloudy skies NW and mostly cloudy skies SE through the day. Cloud cover builds north tonight. Light and variable/calm winds continue overnight apart from N winds 5-10 kt at ECG. Winds become NE 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt across SE VA/NE NC late this morning into this afternoon with gusts around 20 kt possible. The strongest winds look to be at ECG where 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt are possible this afternoon. Outlook: Another coastal low approaches Mon through midweek, leading to an increase in clouds, widespread rain, and the potential for reduced CIGs and VIS across all area terminals. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs have been issued for all marine zones except for the upper rivers from Monday through Tuesday for 20-25 kt NE winds and elevated seas. SCAs remain in effect starting today for the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters and Currituck Sound. - A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches through Tuesday with a Moderate Rip Risk across the northern beaches through Monday. The rip risk increases to high across the northern beaches on Tuesday. - A period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay from Monday night-Tuesday. High pressure is in place across eastern North America with a weak surface low off the SE CONUS coast. The gradient between these features is allowing for a ~15 kt NE wind over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters, with 5-10 kt winds over the rest of the marine area. Seas are ~3 ft N and 4-6 ft S. The weak low off the SE coast drifts N through early this aftn allowing for the NE wind to increase, primarily S of Cape Charles. This will allow for seas to remain elevated (5-6 ft) off the Currituck Outer Banks, and build to 4-5 ft off VA Beach (so SCAs remain in effect starting now). Additionally, a 15-20 kt NE wind is expected across the Currituck Sound today, so SCAs remain in effect starting now there as well. The pressure gradient may slacken to some extent later today into tonight, before tightening once again late tonight. Marine conditions deteriorate from south to north on Monday and especially Monday night as the weak low off the Carolina coast deepens and lifts north along the coast or just offshore. While models showed a much weaker (and offshore) low yesterday...the 12/00z suites of guidance have sharply trended towards a stronger low close to the coast. SCAs have been issued for all marine zones except the upper rivers starting Monday. All headlines are in effect through Tuesday evening for now. Winds likely increase to SCA criteria by morning/midday Monday across the lower bay/lower James and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Winds increase further Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens due to the approaching low. Peak winds will likely occur Monday night into Tuesday (NE around 25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt). There is the potential for a period of low- end gale force gusts across the SE VA/NC coastal waters and lower bay from Monday night-Tuesday, but this will depend on the exact strength/track of the low. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor as local wind probs for 34+ kt wind gusts have increased to 25-45% across these areas. Gale Watches may be needed for a portion of the area if things continue to trend upward. Winds gradually decrease from south to north from Tuesday night- Wednesday as the low tracks over the marine area (resulting in a slackening pressure gradient). Sub-SCA winds are then expected late this week. With the increasing NE winds, seas will build to 7-9 ft by Mon night/Tue with 3-5 ft waves on the bay (potentially 6 ft at the mouth of the bay). High Surf Advisories may be needed for VA Beach and the NE NC Outer Banks. The high rip risk will continue for the southern beaches through at least Tuesday. The rip risk is moderate across the northern beaches from today-Mon, increasing to high on Tue. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 320 AM EDT Sunday... With the increasing NE winds and building seas Mon night-Tue, tidal anomalies across the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coast are expected increase by 1-1.5 ft. Anomalies across the upper bay won`t increase as much. This will likely result in another round of minor tidal flooding across the tidal York/James, Middle/Lower Bay, and SE VA/NE NC coast. ETSS shows solid to high-end minor flooding across these locations, with peak water levels occurring during the Tuesday evening high tide cycle. There is some potential for localized moderate flooding at Jamestown/Lynnhaven, with the 4.5 ft MLLW threshold falling between the 50th and 90th percentiles in the NAEFS based P-ETSS. Have noted that forecast peak water levels from the deterministic ETSS Tuesday evening generally fall just under the 50th percentile from the NAEFS based P-ETSS. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Maximum Temperatures: 9/16 9/17 RIC 65/1959 61/2011 ORF 64/1963 65/1986 SBY 59/1963 63/1924 ECG 66/1963 65/2011 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1244850 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated storms forecast today, with greatest rain chances (up to 50%) along the coast of Volusia and Brevard Counties. - Breezy conditions continue along the Volusia County coast today, with gusts up to 25-30 mph this afternoon. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist across the Volusia and offshore Brevard County waters today. A High Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Today-Tonight...A mid to upper level low will continue to cutoff near to north of the area in the base of a trough extending across the eastern seaboard. This low aloft will move little and will help strengthen an area or surface low pressure off the Carolina coast. A stationary front attached to this system will extend and remain just south of Florida, keeping surface winds out of the N/NE. Gradient weakens some today, so winds are not forecast to be as gusty as yesterday for much of the area. However, along the Volusia County coast breezy winds will still occur this afternoon, with speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph. Elsewhere, speeds will be closer to 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph possible at times. Low level N/NE winds will continue to transport some moisture onshore and inland across east central Florida, with PW values around 1.5-1.7". This flow will keep greatest rain chances, up to 50% along the Volusia/Brevard County coast as the potential for scattered onshore moving showers and isolated storms continues. PoPs then decrease farther south and inland to 30-40%, as isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will still be possible into the afternoon. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce gusty winds to 40-45 mph, occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Temperatures will still be slightly below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows tonight in the low 70s, except upper 60s across some inland areas as drier air continues to build into the region in a light northerly flow. High astronomical tides and breezy N/NE winds will continue to cause wave runup to near the dune line during the early afternoon high tide today, especially north of the Cape. A High Risk of rip currents also continues today. Monday-Tuesday...Cutoff low aloft expands across the southeast U.S. into early this week. This in turn continues to strengthen low pressure off the coast off the Carolinas, with both the GFS/ECMWF now showing this feature pushing onshore the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday. Across central Florida, drier air will continue to build into the area as low level flow continues out of the N/NE. This will lead to below normal shower and storm coverage to start the work week, with rain chances only around 20-30 percent across much of the area each day. Highs increase only slightly to values closer to normal, with values ranging from 85-90 degrees. Overnight lows will still be in the low 70s for most locations, but still could see some normally cooler inland locations drop into the upper 60s. Wednesday-Saturday...Mid/upper level cutoff low shifts N/NE and weakens into midweek, with E/SE flow dragging deeper moisture back northward across the area into mid to late week. This will lead to rain chances gradually increasing from south to north through the period, rising to 50-70% by late week into early weekend. This will also increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding issues once again across the area, especially near to southeast of the I-4 corridor into late week. Highs will generally continue in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Today-Tonight...Seas are overperforming slightly from guidance, and wave heights have reached up to 7 feet at Buoy 41009. Have therefore added the offshore Brevard County waters to the Small Craft Advisory (SCA), which for this portion of the waters will continue through early morning. For the Volusia County waters the SCA will continue through today for north-northeast winds still up to 15-20 knots and seas still lingering to 6-7 feet. For the nearshore waters of Brevard County and across the Treasure Coast waters, northerly winds will be around 10-15 knots, with seas 3-5 feet. N/NE winds diminish into tonight to less than 15 knots, but seas up to 6 feet will still lead to poor boating conditions across the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard counties. Scattered showers and storms will continue across the coastal waters today into tonight. Monday-Thursday...N/NE winds continue into early this week and gradually veer to the E/NE through midweek, with speeds generally less than 15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet over much of the waters Monday through Tuesday are forecast to diminish to 3-4 feet into midweek. Lower than normal shower and storm coverage forecast across the waters early this week, but rain chances then increase from south to north through Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Ongoing scattered showers and isolated storms tonight over the Atlantic, with some activity pushing onshore along the coast. These occasional showers along the coast will continue through 12Z on Sunday. Brief MVFR conditions under convection. Scattered showers are once again expected Sunday, with VCSH from MCO eastward in the afternoon. Isolated lightning storms may develop, but confidence is too low to include VCTS at this time. Light winds overnight will become breezy to gusty conditions Sunday mid-morning, especially from MLB northward. Shower and storm activity will dissipate by early evening with mostly dry conditions and light and variable winds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 71 85 71 / 50 20 30 10 MCO 87 70 89 71 / 40 10 30 10 MLB 86 73 87 74 / 40 20 30 20 VRB 88 71 89 73 / 30 20 30 20 LEE 86 68 89 70 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 86 70 88 70 / 40 10 30 10 ORL 86 71 89 72 / 40 10 30 10 FPR 88 70 89 72 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ572. && $$ |
| #1244849 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 An upper-level trough/cutoff low extends southward over the southeastern U.S. and Florida early this morning while at the surface, a frontal boundary sits south of the state and a surface low has developed to the northeast over the Atlantic. Over the next several days, the cutoff low will slowly lift northeast while the surface low moves northward toward the mid-Atlantic coast. Overall, this will keep northeast to east winds in place across the region through the middle part of the week with drier conditions for the northern half of the forecast area and scattered showers and thunderstorms to the south. Moisture then looks to creep back up for the end of the week into next weekend, leading to higher rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Northeast winds will prevail but will turn more northerly or briefly north- northwest in the afternoon at coastal sites. Similar to this past evening, a few showers are possible around the Tampa Bay region later in the afternoon and evening, but no significant restrictions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Northeast to east winds will remain over the waters through the next few days, with a north or north-northwest turn near the coast each afternoon. Wind speeds will generally remain below headlines, but could approach exercise caution levels for a brief period tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Drier air over the region will lead to lower rain chances over the next few days, but relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no fire weather concerns. No fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 72 90 74 / 30 10 10 0 FMY 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 89 70 91 72 / 30 10 20 0 SRQ 88 71 89 72 / 30 20 10 10 BKV 88 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 SPG 87 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1244848 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 312 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into New England early this week with dry and mild conditions today through at least early Monday. Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting the region late Monday through mid-week, bringing widespread rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. A warmup is expected by late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly cloudy and cool early this morning, with patchy fog possible over the MD Lower Eastern Shore. - Mild today with highs in the low to mid 80s for most. Latest analysis depicted high pressure over Ontario, with surface ridging extending down the east coast across the local area. Meanwhile, a quasi- stationary front remains draped off the Southeast Coast over the Gulf Stream this morning. The front is oriented beneath a mid-level trough, which extends down the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast Coast. A weak area of low pressure has developed along the front and will continue to drift NNW offshore of the coastal Carolinas through the day. The trough to the south is responsible for upper level cloudiness across the SE half of the FA this morning. These clouds will continue to gradually expand across the area today. Meanwhile, additional mid-level clouds associated with a weak shortwave continue to move in from the NW. Temps as of 200 AM ranged from the mid 50 to around 60F inland with mid 60s along the coast. Morning lows in the mid 50s for most inland areas (locally upper 50s) and mid 60s along the coast. Some lows in the lower 50s are once again possible in the typically cooler inland locations, however, cloud cover adds some uncertainty. Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue through the day with fewer clouds NW and more clouds SE. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s NW to the upper 70s to around 80F SE are expected. Clouds linger through tonight with lows around 60F inland and upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting the region from late Monday through mid-week with widespread rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy winds possible. - Locally heavy rain is possible on Tuesday across eastern portions of the area with rainfall totals of 2-3"+ possible. Aloft, a tall ridge continues to build into Canada early this week, orienting SW to NE through mid-week. This creates an upper level cutoff low across the Southeast Mon which slowly moves north into the local area Tue. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure builds SE into New England early this week, ridging into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low off the Southeast coast slowly lifts north along the coast through mid-week. Models continue to differ with respect to the exact track of the low with several models taking the low inland in a NW track into NC and VA Mon night into Tue whereas others keep a more N track. However, given the upper level cutoff low positioned over inland portions of the region, the model solutions favoring a curve to the NW with the surface low, becoming more vertically stacked underneath the cutoff low make more sense. As such, confidence continues to increase in widespread impacts from the coastal low from late Mon through mid-week with widespread rain likely along with breezy winds, particularly along the coast. The NBM continues to increase with PoPs and now has 25-45% PoPs across SE VA/NE NC late Mon afternoon, increasing to 50-60% Mon night and 55-70% Tue into Tue night. The GFS/GEFS had been the outlier showing lower QPF compared to other models/ensembles. However, the 00z GEFS has increased to 0.5-0.75" W of I-95 and 1- 1.5" across eastern portions of the FA. This (while a large increase from the 12z GEFS) is still lower than the EPS which now shows a widespread 1-1.5" across the NW half of the area and 1.5-2" across the SE half of the area. As such, the NBM QPF seems reasonable with ~1" across the far NW portion of the FA, 1-1.5" across most of the area, and a corridor of 2-3" across SE VA/NE NC. Will also note that the deterministic Euro and GFS now both show the potential for localized totals of 3-4" across SE VA/NE NC. As such, WPC has added a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern VA and NE NC on Tue. Will also note that there now appears to be at least a low- end chance for some embedded thunderstorms across mainly SE VA/NE NC Mon night into Tue due to an enhanced area of FGEN north of the low. Additionally, gusty NE winds are expected, especially along the coast, Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient between the high to the north and the coastal low tightens. Gusts up to ~20 mph inland and ~35 mph along the coast are possible. Given the increased confidence in widespread rainfall, temps have also trended cooler on Tue with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most (mid 70s across far SE VA/NE NC). If these trends continue, would not be surprised if many inland areas do not see highs above the 60s on Tue and Wed. See climate section below for more information. Highs will be warmer on Mon with temps around 80F NW to the mid 70s SE expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering impacts from a coastal low are likely on Wednesday with additional rain and cooler weather expected. - A warmup is expected by late week with cooler weather returning next Sunday. The upper level low washes out across the region Wed into Thu with the coastal low weakening as it lifts N. However, widespread light to moderate rain likely continues into Wed with 40-65% PoPs. This will allow for cooler temps once again with many inland areas struggling to get out of the 60s. Highs across eastern portions of the area in the mid 70s are possible. Rainfall rates and totals are not expected to be as high Wed as Tue with additional rainfall totals of 0.25-0.5" expected across most of the area. Clouds linger into Thu with some clearing skies possible in the late afternoon. As such, highs are expected to be warmer on Thu with temps in the upper 70s for most (locally around 80F). The upper level ridge moves into the East Coast Fri into Sat with a warmup expected (highs in the mid 80s Fri and low-mid 80s Sat). A trough moves into the region next Sun with CAD potentially developing as high pressure slides off the New England coast. As such, cooler weather (highs in the mid 70s) is possible. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Generally VFR conditions continue through the 6z TAF period across the terminals. However, some patchy fog is possible at SBY between 8-12z with brief IFR VIS possible. Otherwise, SCT- BKN cirrus continue to push inland from the south with a batch of mid to high level clouds moving SE into the northern portion of the FA. As such, expect partly cloudy skies NW and mostly cloudy skies SE through the day. Cloud cover builds north tonight. Light and variable/calm winds continue overnight apart from N winds 5-10 kt at ECG. Winds become NE 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt across SE VA/NE NC late this morning into this afternoon with gusts around 20 kt possible. The strongest winds look to be at ECG where 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt are possible this afternoon. Outlook: Another coastal low approaches Mon through midweek, leading to an increase in clouds, widespread rain, and the potential for reduced CIGs and VIS across all area terminals. && .MARINE... As of 310 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs have been issued for all marine zones except for the upper rivers from Monday through Tuesday for 20-25 kt NE winds and elevated seas. SCAs remain in effect starting today for the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters and Currituck Sound. - A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches through Tuesday with a Moderate Rip Risk across the northern beaches through Monday. The rip risk increases to high across the northern beaches on Tuesday. - A period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay from Monday night-Tuesday. High pressure is in place across eastern North America with a weak surface low off the SE CONUS coast. The gradient between these features is allowing for a ~15 kt NE wind over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters, with 5-10 kt winds over the rest of the marine area. Seas are ~3 ft N and 4-6 ft S. The weak low off the SE coast drifts N through early this aftn allowing for the NE wind to increase, primarily S of Cape Charles. This will allow for seas to remain elevated (5-6 ft) off the Currituck Outer Banks, and build to 4-5 ft off VA Beach (so SCAs remain in effect starting now). Additionally, a 15-20 kt NE wind is expected across the Currituck Sound today, so SCAs remain in effect starting now there as well. The pressure gradient may slacken to some extent later today into tonight, before tightening once again late tonight. Marine conditions deteriorate from south to north on Monday and especially Monday night as the weak low off the Carolina coast deepens and lifts north along the coast or just offshore. While models showed a much weaker (and offshore) low yesterday...the 12/00z suites of guidance have sharply trended towards a stronger low close to the coast. SCAs have been issued for all marine zones except the upper rivers starting Monday. All headlines are in effect through Tuesday evening for now. Winds likely increase to SCA criteria by morning/midday Monday across the lower bay/lower James and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Winds increase further Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens due to the approaching low. Peak winds will likely occur Monday night into Tuesday (NE around 25 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt). There is the potential for a period of low- end gale force gusts across the SE VA/NC coastal waters and lower bay from Monday night-Tuesday, but this will depend on the exact strength/track of the low. Nevertheless, will continue to monitor as local wind probs for 34+ kt wind gusts have increased to 25-45% across these areas. Gale Watches may be needed for a portion of the area if things continue to trend upward. Winds gradually decrease from south to north from Tuesday night- Wednesday as the low tracks over the marine area (resulting in a slackening pressure gradient). Sub-SCA winds are then expected late this week. With the increasing NE winds, seas will build to 7-9 ft by Mon night/Tue with 3-5 ft waves on the bay (potentially 6 ft at the mouth of the bay). High Surf Advisories may be needed for VA Beach and the NE NC Outer Banks. The high rip risk will continue for the southern beaches through at least Tuesday. The rip risk is moderate across the northern beaches from today-Mon, increasing to high on Tue. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Maximum Temperatures: 9/16 9/17 RIC 65/1959 61/2011 ORF 64/1963 65/1986 SBY 59/1963 63/1924 ECG 66/1963 65/2011 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-638-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1244847 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 249 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving coastal low is forecast to drift north and then northwest towards ENC over the next couple of days. The low is then forecast to move inland Monday night or Tuesday before lifting north and weakening mid-week. Late in the week, a cold front will move through, with another coastal low possibly developing offshore. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... Guidance is in good agreement through today, depicting a coastal low deepening 100 miles, or so, southeast of Cape Lookout. With the low meandering offshore, the flow over ENC will remain northeasterly. Breezy northeast winds plus widespread high clouds should help to keep temperatures below normal by mid September`s standards. Regional radar shows a broad area of moderate to heavy rain offshore, associated with the above-mentioned coastal low. Given the lack of appreciable movement with the low, it appears the better moisture will remain offshore through the day today. The main exception is right along the immediate coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout where occasional showers may clip the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... A coastal low is forecast to drift slowly north and west tonight, edging closer to ENC, but likely still remaining 100 miles, or so, offshore. As the low edges closer, a tightening pressure gradient should continue to support breezy conditions along the coast (25-30 mph). An area of deeper moisture is forecast to edge closer to the coast as well, and this may support a gradual increase in the chance of showers, especially along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Monitoring the track and strength of a coastal low Monday and Tuesday Early this week, the focus will be on the track and strength of a coastal low that is forecast to move slowly inland across ENC Monday or Tuesday. The latest suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance have generally trended deeper and further north with the track of the low. Regarding the strength of the low, guidance is fairly well clustered with a 1005-1010mb low moving through ENC. However, it`s worth noting that a few ensemble members suggest the low bottoming out below 1000mb. Regardless, we continue to expect a period of breezy northeast winds, especially along the coast where gusts of 25- 35 mph are expected. The note here is that if the deeper trend continues, there would be a bump up in the magnitude of winds. Further inland, winds are not expected to be as breezy. As the low moves inland, it is expected to weaken, and this should lead to a decrease in winds across the area. Based on the latest trends in the track of the low, a plume of deeper moisture is expected to pivot inland with the low Monday into Monday night. This should support a band of moderate to heavy rain on the NW and N side of the track of the low, with rainfall rates and amounts potentially being enhanced with some embedded convection late Monday into Monday night. Rainfall amounts will be highly dependent on the track of the low, with a larger than normal gradient in amounts possible across the area. The latest guidance suggests the greatest risk of 1"+ will be focused along the OBX and portions of the coastal plain east of HWY 17. This area may shift depending on the track of the low, but the key message is that there is a good signal for 1-2"+ along and to the N/NW of the track of the low. ENC has had a very dry start to September, and this should help to limit the flooding potential. The one exception may be if any area sees convection train over the same area, with rates overcoming poor drainage areas. For now, this looks to be on more of an isolated basis, but we`ll continue to monitor rainfall trends in guidance. Once the coastal low weakens, it is forecast to lift north through the Mid-Atlantic mid-week. This will allow a southerly flow to return to the Carolinas, which should help temperatures to warm back up closer to normal. Warming of the residually moist airmass may allow a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue through Thursday. Late in the week and into next weekend, a cold front is forecast to move south into the area, with north to northeast flow returning once again. Yet again, another low may develop along this boundary then, but guidance isn`t as clear on the upper level and surface pattern by then. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered to broken high clouds with light northerly winds will persist through the overnight hours, with these light winds expected to preclude any fog threat. Some guidance suggests some lower clouds with bases around 4-5kft may intrude across parts of the southern OBX and Down East Carteret overnight, but do not expect any low clouds to make there way to TAF sites. High clouds persist tomorrow with northeasterly wind gusts again increasing to 15-20 kts for all TAF sites. Guidance does show chances for lower clouds to bring MVFR ceilings to the coastline from MRH up to HSE tomorrow starting late morning and lingering into the late afternoon, but confidence is high that any MVFR ceilings will stay east of TAF sites. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Sunday...Unsettled weather expected to return Monday with increasing chances for showers (some thunderstorms possible) beginning early Monday morning as a slow moving area of low pressure works its way up the coast. Showers and thunderstorms may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions, but expect VFR conditions to mostly prevail otherwise. Winds will remain gusty from the north-northeast, especially along the coast. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Sunday... Key Messages... - Rough Marine conditions continue through short term. Latest obs show NE winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts around 25-30 kt, and seas 5-8 ft. Guidance is in good agreement through today regarding the development of a coastal low along a stalled frontal boundary south-southeast of Cape Lookout. Pressure gradient will remain pinched across the region between high pressure centered over across the mid-Atlantic and the coastal low as it meanders offshore today. This strengthening low will allow winds to strengthen again today to 20-25 knots (gusts 25-30 kts) across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters, with waves building to 6-8 feet (potential for some 9 footers to creep in south of Oregon inlet). SCAs continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico sound through the short term period. High-res guidance is bullish on the increasing winds today and shows SCA conditions expanding into the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Currently, confidence is higher in inland rivers/sounds reaching SCA criteria on Monday. As such, SCAs have been hoisted for the rivers/sounds beginning Sunday night; however, there is potential that the start of these new SCAs may need to be pulled forward to this morning if winds follow high-res guidance. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Sunday... Key Messages: - Gusty northerly winds continue through Tuesday - Small Craft Advisory conditions persist into mid-week Guidance is coming into better agreement regarding the track of the coastal low forecast to develop off the Southeastern US coastline today. Most guidance favors the low drifting northward towards ENC before moving inland and beginning to weaken Monday night or Tuesday. The pressure gradient will remain pinched between this coastal low and high pressure to the northwest, allowing SCA conditions to persist through Tuesday/Tuesday night. Have expanded SCAs with this forecast package to include the remaining inland rivers and sounds beginning late Sunday night. High-res guidance remains on the bullish side for winds through Monday, indicating a roughly 40-60% chance for gusts to Gale force for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound on Monday. Upgrades to Gale Warnings for Monday may be needed later today depending on how guidance trends regarding the evolution of the coastal low. Marine conditions are expected to subside into Wednesday, with winds becoming southwesterly at 10-15 knots (gusts of 15-20) and waves subsiding to 3-5 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ230-231. && $$ |
| #1244846 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 231 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will generally prevail inland with offshore low pressure shifting northward into mid week, possibly bringing some rain to the area. High pressure should then return later in the week with warmer and generally dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Another quiet weather day on tap for your Sunday courtesy of weak sfc high pressure over the Carolinas. Low pressure is progged to develop offshore, but associated rain chances will hold off for one more day as low and mid levels will remain fairly dry. Otherwise, NNE flow continues, gusty at times right along the coast. Temps again slightly below normal for mid September...highs in the low/mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to above normal rain chances possible, mainly near/north of Wilmington *Below normal temps Confidence: *Moderate Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Still some uncertainty revolving around the track of low pressure offshore and how close showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder get to SE NC and NE SC. As of now the best rain chances/amounts should generally be north of Cape Fear closer to the low but some will depend on the track of the upper low and associated forcing as well. Most likely rain amounts are a few tenths of an inch with potential higher end amounts around an inch. Highs should mainly be near 80 Mon and mid to upper 70s Tue with lows both nights mostly in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Warming trend w/ temps getting back close to and even above normal late week *Near to below normal rain chances Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No significant changes to the mid to late week period. Deep low pressure over the area early Wed should start to give way to more high pressure through late week. This will lead to increasing temps and pretty low rain chances. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR and dry through the 06Z TAF period. Persistent N-NE winds at 5- 10 kt this morning increase to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt during the day, especially at the coastal terminals. Clouds will mainly be high clouds, with some lower altocu possible near the coast. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR continues but dependent on positioning of an upper low...MVFR clouds may get drawn across the terminals Monday and Tuesday, but confidence is low. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Seas up to 6 ft continue over the outer portions of the marine zones this morning so the SCA continues through 8am. Winds and seas slightly weaken today as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit, but SCA conditions are again possible late tonight into Monday with sfc low pressure developing offshore...will re- evaluate and update accordingly later this morning before the current headline ends. The long fetch and duration of the NE winds means an 8 sec swell will be the dominant contributor to the wave heights. Monday through Thursday...High pressure looks to persist inland while low pressure offshore likely tracks slowly north into mid week. Winds/seas will remain elevated early in the week before diminishing in accordance with the weakening pressure gradient as the low moves farther away. A Small Craft Advisory will probably be needed through Mon night, especially for the NC waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The full moon and elevated north to northeast winds will keep water levels higher than normal today. Minor coastal flooding is likely for the Southeast NC coast, and possible for the Northeast SC coast, with the afternoon high tide cycle. Locations along the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward can expect minor coastal flooding with the afternoon high tide cycles through Mon. Due to persistent and modest NE winds continuing today, expect the continuation of a strong north to south longshore current along the Pender, New Hanover, and Georgetown County Beaches. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1244845 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 226 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Some radiational fog possible early this morning, but it shouldn`t be widespread. Today is dry for most, but some isolated showers are expected in the afternoon and evening with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week. With a low chance for showers for coastal parts of southern New England Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Dry for most with only some isolated showers expected this afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave moves overhead today providing some meager forcing which may result in a few pop up showers similar to what we saw on Saturday. Not expecting much rain out of any of these showers, with QPF amounts of a hundredth of an inch or so the most likely. Thunder chances have decreased for Sunday as well. The more widespread result of the shortwave and plume of decent PWATs will be diurnal cloudcover. Temperatures top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Eventually this moisture is pushed south of the region tonight meaning clearing skies after sunset. The exception will be the east/southeast coast of MA and RI/eastern CT where low level flow turning from the northeast overnight will pull in low level moisture leading to some low stratus and fog overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry and quiet weather. * Seasonable, if a bit warmer than average temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. The period of overall dry weather continues as surface high pressure builds over Quebec with mid level ridging overhead. The airmass overhead is fairly typical for mid September which with the expected sunshine leads to temperatures once again in the 70s and low 80s. The coolest spots will be the eastern MA coast thanks to onshore flow (highs in the low 70s) while the warmest will be the CT Valley (low 80s). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * High pressure brings quiet weather much, if not all of next week. * Temperatures a bit warmer than average for mid September in the upper 70s and even low 80s by late week. Overall a benign stretch of weather upcoming nearly all of next week under the influence of a broad mid level ridge and surface high pressure. This keeps rain chances at bay while allowing temperatures to creep up into the upper 70s/low 80s. At this point the best shot at some unsettled weather looks to be mid week (late Wed into Thu) as a weak surface low system comes up the coast and may pass close enough to bring some rain chances with it. Ensemble guidance places the highest odds of wetting rain (60-80%) along the south coast as expected with significantly less chance further inland. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update... Today: High Confidence. VFR. Light S to SW winds. Low risk for a few afternoon -SHRA towards RI and SE MA. Tonight: High Confidence. VFR. Light NW to N winds. Monday: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR, low confidence in valley fog developing, if it were to do so, it would likely occur 08z-13z. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy FG. Tuesday: VFR. Widespread FG. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Widespread FG. Wednesday: VFR. Widespread FG, slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Widespread FG, chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, widespread FG. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Relatively light winds and seas this morning. Very low risk for a few stray showers towards the RI and SE MA coast this afternoon. High pressure brings quiet weather and seas on Monday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1244844 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 217 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated storms remain possible tonight, mainly along the immediate coast. - Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue across the Volusia County and offshore Brevard County waters tonight. A High Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Rest of Today-Sunday...A sharp mid-upper level trough extending down the eastern US will sweep across Florida, gradually developing a mid-level cutoff low over the southeast US. A surface low is already starting to develop over the Western Atlantic off the southeast seaboard (looks like the ECM had the timing but the GFS had the location) along the frontal boundary pushed south of us in response to the trough. This is tightening the pressure gradient across the northern half of the Florida peninsula, producing northeasterly winds to around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the Volusia coast, around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph further inland towards the Orlando Metro, and gradually decreasing southward to around 10 mph from Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast. Occasionally higher winds and gusts have been seen at times. These winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon and most of the evening, then gradually ease through the late evening and early overnight to 5-10 mph from the north. The pressure gradient will ease as the surface low drifts north and east, resulting in more moderate winds Sunday, though breezy and gusty conditions will remain possible along the Volusia coast. Between the trough swinging through and more northerly flow around the developing low, drier air will continue to filter down decreasing rain chances. Despite the low-level moisture from the stout onshore flow today, dry air above is killing most deep convection, and isolated to at best scattered low-top showers are expected this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Can`t rule out a few lightning storms but the odds are not in favor. Onshore moving showers will remain possible during the overnight periods, which could get hung up on the coast leading to locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs slightly below normal in the M-U80s. Monday-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Models are coming into better agreement now that the surface low over the western Atlantic off the Southeast seaboard attendant to the trough aloft has started to develop. The mid-level cutoff low developing over the Southeast in the base of the trough will help gradually deepen the surface low as both these features drift northeastward. There is still some difference in the exact position and timing of these features, but given how far east the low has developed, confidence is now very high we`ll continue to see drier air filtering from the north, keeping our rain chances down. First half of the week should be the quietest weather we`ve seen in a little while (relatively speaking), with rain chances 30-40 percent Monday and 20-30 percent Tuesday. By midweek, the aforementioned low east of the area either weakens or lifts northeast and the cutoff low aloft also transitions N/NE. Low to mid level flow will veer to the E/SE through mid to late week and allow for the deeper moisture suppressed to our south to gradually build back northward across the area, with shower and storm chances once again increasing up to 50-70 percent by Thursday- Friday. Highs will continue in the mid to upper 80s through next week, with lows generally in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 810 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight (updated previous)...Hazardous boating conditions continue across the Volusia Atlantic waters from NNE-NE winds around 20 kts (30 kt gusts) and seas around 7 ft. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through at least 4 AM Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution over the offshore Brevard waters as well. Bands of showers and isolated lightning storms will remain possible through the night, which may cause locally higher winds/seas, also. Sunday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...N/NE winds continue tomorrow into early next week, as the low pressure system off the southeast seaboard gradually deepens while slowly shifting N/NW. Poor boating conditions are forecast to redevelop across the nearshore Volusia County waters Sunday as wind speeds increase back to 15-20 knots, especially during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, wind speeds will be generally less than 15 knots. Winds will gradually veer to the E/NE through mid week, with wind speeds remaining below 15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet. Coverage of showers and storms are forecast to gradually decrease across the waters late weekend into early next week as drier air builds into the area, but scattered showers and occasional storms will still be possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 142 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Ongoing scattered showers and isolated storms tonight over the Atlantic, with some activity pushing onshore along the coast. These occasional showers along the coast will continue through 12Z on Sunday. Brief MVFR conditions under convection. Scattered showers are once again expected Sunday, with VCSH from MCO eastward in the afternoon. Isolated lightning storms may develop, but confidence is too low to include VCTS at this time. Light winds overnight will become breezy to gusty conditions Sunday mid-morning, especially from MLB northward. Shower and storm activity will dissipate by early evening with mostly dry conditions and light and variable winds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 71 85 71 / 50 20 30 10 MCO 87 70 89 71 / 40 10 30 10 MLB 86 73 87 74 / 40 20 30 20 VRB 88 71 89 73 / 30 20 30 20 LEE 86 68 89 70 / 30 10 20 0 SFB 86 70 88 70 / 40 10 30 10 ORL 86 71 89 72 / 40 10 30 10 FPR 88 70 89 72 / 30 10 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1244843 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 201 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A digging shortwave trough is expected to cutoff near the Jacksonville coast and induce weak surface cyclogenesis offshore from SE GA/NE FL today. This evolution supports a continued dry local forecast reinforced by northeasterly low-level winds in addition to subsidence on the developing Low`s western flank. A slight zonal gradient in upper heights supports relatively "cooler" daytime temperatures along/east of the Flint River Valley (upper 80s) and closer to 90 degrees for locations westward under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows dip into the low 60s away from the immediate coast. If the boundary layer can decouple, then isolated upper 50s are possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 The aforementioned low-pressure system slowly gains latitude during the short-term period with a weak Rex-like Block developing from the Great Lakes down to the Carolinas. Such a pattern once again supports a dry local forecast and a gradual warming trend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s areawide while lows drop to the low-to-mid 60s. Prevailing NW winds keeps the seabreeze pinned to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 As the Rex Block breaks mid-to-late week, modest upper height rises from a building ridge supports a continued warming trend. A more easterly component to the low-level winds also favors a gradually moistening airmass with slugs of deeper moisture creeping northwestward from the FL Peninsula. Low rain chances (less than 30%) therefore return to the forecast this weekend for the seabreeze zone down to the East FL Big Bend & South-Central GA. Locations in the Suwannee Valley have the best potential to see isolated showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms during that time. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s with isolated mid 90s. Peak heat indices reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees late in the period thanks to increased moisture. Overnight lows will feel more summer-like and muggy once again as readings reach the mid- to-upper 60s (low 70s along the immediate coast). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A dry air mass and NE surface winds will continue for the next 24 hours. The dry air will prevent fog and low stratus formation. Little more than higher-based fair weather cumulus is expected during the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Overnight Observations: Panama City Tide Tide Station (8729108) - sustained ENE winds 4 kts. Panama City Beach Tide Station (8729210) - sustained NE winds around 2 kts. West Tampa Buoy (42036) - sustained NE winds 17-18 kts, 3-4-ft seas, and a dominant period of 5 seconds. An ASCAT pass at 3Z showed cautionary NE winds over Apalachee Bay with notably lighter, more variable winds west of Apalachicola. CWF Synopsis: Generally favorable boating conditions prevail thanks to persistent surface high pressure over the Appalachians region. Continued east to northeast winds continue over the next few days outside of a daily onshore push from the afternoon seabreeze along the immediate nearshore legs. Expect nocturnal land breeze surges across Apalachee Bay, which may introduce cautionary to near cautionary conditions. Forecast rain chances are low with a slight chance of thunderstorms creeping into the offshore legs mid to late week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Warm and dry weather continues over the next few days with prevailing NE winds. The latter should keep the seabreeze pinned to the coast. High mixing heights fosters widespread high dispersions Sunday and Monday for most of the Tri-State area. Despite min RH values remaining above critical thresholds, prolonged rain-free conditions and warm to occasionally breezy afternoons introduces some elevated fire concerns later this week as fuels will continue drying out. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next several days. The best potential is across the southern portions of the Tri-State area this weekend, but amounts are likely to be negligible. Although there are no flooding concerns, this current prolonged stretch of dry weather introduces drought concerns in the near future with rapid onset drought being a possibility across SE AL and portions of SW GA in late September. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 90 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 89 61 90 65 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 84 70 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1244842 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 155 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the region this weekend, as another area of high pressure builds into New England early next week. This will allow for dry conditions to persist, along with a modest warmup through Monday. Confidence continues to increase that a developing coastal low impacts the region by the middle of next week, resulting in the return of widespread cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and increasing rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly cloudy and cool early this morning, with patchy fog possible over the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Latest analysis shows surface high pressure over Atlantic Canada, with surface ridging extending down the east coast across our area. Meanwhile, a well- defined quasi- stationary frontal boundary remains draped off the East Coast over the Gulf Stream this evening. The front is oriented beneath a narrow mid-level trough, which extends down the mid- Atlantic and southeast coast. A weak area of low pressure is developing along the front north of the Bahamas and will continue to drift NNW offshore of the coastal Carolinas through the weekend. Aloft, an upper-level omega block pattern remains in place over the CONUS, with longwave ridging over the nation`s midsection extending well north into central Canada, on either side of troughing over QC/New England and the Pacific NW, respectively. The trough to the south is responsible for some mid to high level cloudiness in the SE, which will continue to gradually expand across the area today. Meanwhile, additional mid-level clouds continue to move in from the NW. Temps as of 130 AM ranged from the mid 50 to around 60F inland with mid 60s along the coast. Morning lows in the mid 50s for most inland areas (locally upper 50s) and mid 60s along the coast. Some lows in the lower 50s are once again possible in the typically cooler inland locations, however, cloud cover adds some uncertainty. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Remaining generally dry with near normal temperatures through Monday. - Breezy conditions are possible along the coast through Monday. High pressure gradually builds southeast from Canada tomorrow into Monday. Meanwhile, the sfc trough off the southeast coast closes off, as low pressure begins to deepen further late tomorrow and Monday. The resultant NE flow slowly increases due to the compressing pressure gradient, with gusts again to ~15-20 kt along the coast tomorrow and ~20kt along the coast on Monday. Given that the low remains offshore of the SE NC coast through Monday night, rain chances remain relatively low away from NE NC and far SE VA. PoPs remain ~20-30% in this area by late Monday afternoon. High temperatures in the low- mid 80s each day inland, upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting the area through the middle of next week with widespread rain and breezy winds along the coast possible. - A warmup is expected by late week into next weekend. Cool, dry high pressure again builds down into New England, and will ridge south into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low lifts north along the coast through mid-week. Aloft, the previously referenced upper ridge builds down across the Great Lakes for the mid to late week period, as the PAC NW trough builds in behind it across the Canadian Prairies, with the upper pattern orienting SW to NE through midweek. The main feature of note for our region remains the upper trough that lingers off the Carolina coast, and there remains a bit of a mixed signal from guidance with this feature. The 12z/13 GFS remains a bit more progressive and farther offshore, with the CMC and ECMWF each a bit more protracted with rainfall potential, showing a closed low solution that is closer to the mid-Atlantic coast. Of note, the 12z/GFS has trended a bit toward the EC/CMC consensus, but still lags behind with lower QPF and a warmer, drier midweek scenario. For its part, the NBM now advertising 30-50% PoPs across the southern half of the area late Mon night into Tuesday, increasing to 40-60% across the area Tue and Wed. Most model guidance has the trough lifting out of the area by late week, with PoPs decreasing to 15-20% by Thu night/Friday. Given trends to increase PoP/QPF from the NBM and deterministic models, confidence continues to slowly increase that another cycle of increasing clouds and cooler conditions are likely for Tue/Wed, with widespread rain and breezy winds along the coast and occasional rain/drizzle inland possible for midweek. The EPS continues to show 0.75-1" of rain north of I-64 and 1-1.7" south of I-64 (highest totals across SE VA/NE NC). The GEPS (Canadian ensemble) also leans towards to the EPS with >1" possible across eastern VA/NC. The GEFS remains the low outlier, showing < 0.55" west of I-95 and 0.5" east of I-95. Again though, the GEFS has trended toward the slower EPS/GEPS solution. Given this potential, bear in mind that highs Tue and/or Wed may well be cooler than the mid- upper 70s currently in the forecast depending on exact timing and coverage of rainfall. In any case, cooler weather can be expected Tue and Wed with temps beginning to warm by Thu into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier and warmer weather looks to return for Fri and Sat with highs in the mid 80s possible Fri and low to mid 80s Sat. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... Generally VFR conditions continue through the 6z TAF period across the terminals. However, some patchy fog is possible at SBY between 8-12z with brief IFR VIS possible. Otherwise, SCT- BKN cirrus continue to push inland from the south with a batch of mid to high level clouds moving SE into the northern portion of the FA. As such, expect partly cloudy skies NW and mostly cloudy skies SE through the day. Cloud cover builds north tonight. Light and variable/calm winds continue overnight apart from N winds 5-10 kt at ECG. Winds become NE 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt across SE VA/NE NC late this morning into this afternoon with gusts around 20 kt possible. The strongest winds look to be at ECG where 15-20 kt winds with gusts up to 25 kt are possible this afternoon. Outlook: Another coastal low approaches Mon through midweek, leading to an increase in clouds, widespread rain, and the potential for reduced CIGs and VIS across all area terminals. && .MARINE... As of 955 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - SCAs have been extended into Sunday off the northern OBX and added off Virginia Beach into Sunday, mainly due to elevated seas. SCAs have also been issued for the Currituck Sound late tonight into Sunday. - A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches with a Moderate Rip Risk across the northern beaches through Monday. - Elevated NE winds are likely early next week. High pressure is in place across eastern North America with weak low pressure off the SE coast. The gradient between these features is allowing for a ~15 kt NE wind over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters, with 10-15 kt winds over the Lower Bay, and 5-10 kt over northern portions of the marine area. Seas are ~3 ft N and 4-6 ft S. The weak low off the SE coast drifts N late tonight through midday Sunday allowing for a NE wind in increase, primarily S of Cape Charles. This will allow for seas to remain elevated (5-6ft) off the Currituck Outer Banks, and build to 4-5ft off VA Beach. Therefore, SCAs have been extended through Sunday off the northern Outer Banks, and have been added late tonight into Sunday from the VA/NC border to Cape Charles. Additionally, a 15-20kt NE wind is expected across the Currituck Sound late tonight into Sunday, so SCAs have been issued there as well from late tonight through Sunday. The pressure gradient may slacken to some extent later Sunday into Sunday night, before tightening once again late Sunday night. Another increase in NE winds (likely to SCA criteria across most of the marine area) is expected early next week as a weak coastal low likely develops to our south and potentially lifts north along the coast. 12z guidance is in relatively good agreement showing winds increasing late Monday afternoon. Peak wind speeds (NE between 15-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt) are expected to occur from Monday night through Tuesday night. The highest wind speeds are expected to occur across southern portions of the marine area. Winds are forecast to diminish on Wednesday/Thursday but the latest GFS shows the low lifting N along the coast during this period while the remainder of the guidance has a much weaker low still S or SE of the local area. Accordingly, there is still uncertainty regarding the strength/track of any potential coastal low, SCAs appear likely for at least the ocean due to seas, with a good chance of a period of sustained 18+ kt winds across the Lower Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound as well. The current forecast has widespread 5-6 ft seas/3-5 ft waves by Monday night/Tuesday. Could definitely see seas a bit higher than 6 ft across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in effect for the southern beaches and a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Seas remain elevated at the southern beaches with an 7-8 s period. This high rip current risk continues across the southern beaches on Sunday and Monday (and likely through Tuesday). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1244839 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 146 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region this week. Low pressure will develop well offshore into Monday before meandering closer the North Carolina Outer Banks by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: On water vapor a baroclinic leaf has formed near coastal South Carolina with dry air wrapping in on the back side of the low. Latest 500 mb hand analysis revealed a mid-level ridge axis extending well north with the 588 dam line extending to KMSP. Also noted at 500 mb, was the well forecast shortwave beginning to wave break over eastern Canada as it approaches the Maritimes. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis will continue east off of the coast of South Carolina with pieces of vorticity beginning to be absorbed by the primary shortwave over Canada. The wave breaking will occur to far north though to completely absorb the left over 500 mb low. However, this will keep the surface low rather weak off of the South Carolina coast this afternoon. Precipitation in association with the coastal low will be north of the region with only high and mid clouds across the region (albeit thick at times). On the back side of the mid-level low PWATs will fall off to near 0.80" (or approaching daily minimum values for this time of year) which will foster dewpoints mixing out into the lower to mid 50s with minimum RH values in the 25% to 35% range. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across SC (with the thicker high clouds) and mid to upper 80s for interior GA (due to mostly clear skies and a dry air mass). No precipitation is expected today. Tonight: The mid-level low pressure will remain centered near the South Carolina coast as the potent shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes rapidly pulls east. The low dewpoints and climatologically dry air mass will favor temperatures falling quickly as the sun sets with lows Monday morning being in the upper 50s in rural locations (were the winds completely decouple). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long span of quiet weather across the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia will persist. The sharp upper trough aligned along the Southeast U.S. coast is steadily starting to pinch off from the westerlies with a high amplitude ridge beginning to evolve into an upper-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. These two features will eventually morph into a brief rex block with the upper low meandering over the Carolinas and the upper high remaining quasi- stationary over the Great Lakes. At the surface, guidance is starting to converge on a more consolidated solution showing surface cyclogenesis occurring well offshore of the South Carolina coast which is supported by both the operational runs of the GFS and ECWMF with strong support by most of their associated ensemble members. Given the broad baroclinic leaf structure noted offshore of the Southeast U.S. coast on both GOES-E IR and mid-level water vapor imagery this morning, the strong signal of surface cyclogenesis seems well supported. The surface low is forecast to meander towards the North Carolina Outer Banks and Crystal Coast regions through mid-week with any direct shower activity associated with the low itself likely to remain well offshore. A few showers could occur Monday afternoon and evening east of the I-95 corridor in the Lowcountry where a weak sea breeze could spark off some activity within a pocket of some slightly higher moisture. Overall, mostly dry conditions will prevail through mid-week as the inland wedge holds as the confluent flow to the north helps to keep the parent high locked in over the Mid-Atlantic states and will work in tandem with the increasing low- level cyclonic flow induced by the developing surface low offshore to help reinforce the wedge. Highs each day will peak mid-upper 80s west of I-95 with lower-mid 80s at the coast and upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches. Readings could make a run for the 90 degree mark across far interior Southeast Georgia by Wednesday. Lows each morning will range from the lower-mid 60s inland, mid-upper 60s coast with upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches. A few upper 50s could occur each night across the far interior, mainly in the typical colder, more sheltered areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The rex block over the eastern CONUS will quickly break down by mid- week with broad ridging forecast to prevail across the Southeast U.S. into Friday. A southern stream shortwave could impact the region Saturday which could result in an uptick in rain chances as the weekend begins. Highs will generally max out in mid 80s to lower 90s each afternoon (a bit cooler at the beaches) with overnight lows dropping into the mid-upper 60s inland to the lower-mid 70s at the beaches. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday 06z TAFs: VFR through the issuance expected. Surface low pressure is beginning to from east of the South Carolina coast this morning (as noted on water vapor) with high and mid clouds streaming across KJZI and KCHS. No precipitation is expected today though as the surface low meanders northeast. Extended Aviation Forecast: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: A surface low has already begun to form east of the South Carolina coast this morning with precipitation remaining past 20 nm. The surface low will keep the pressure gradient tight though with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 3 to 6 ft. This afternoon, the surface low will pull far enough north to allow seas to fall below 6 ft across the nearshore GA waters. As such, the Small Craft Advisory end time for the nearshore GA waters has been moved up to 5 PM this afternoon. The nearshore SC and offshore GA waters will maintain seas up to 6 ft and wind gusts up to 25 kt through tonight though and therefore the Small Craft will continue for the aforementioned zones. Monday through Friday: The pinched gradient associated with the inland wedge will begin to steadily relax Monday as low pressure develops offshore and the wedge begins to build south. The tightest pressure gradient will shift north of the waters Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure meanders north closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks. This will result in a gradual decrease in both winds and seas. The combination of lingering elevated winds and seas will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions in place across the South Santee-Edisto nearshore and the Georgia offshore legs into Monday night. From Tuesday on, both winds and seas will remain below advisory thresholds. Rip Currents: Gusty northeast winds will persist today due to the enhanced pressure gradient. This coupled with 4-5 ft swells (and associated 8 second period) will keep a continued high risk for rip currents along the Georgia beaches and a moderate risk for the South Carolina beaches. For Monday, lingering winds and elevated swell will keep the rip current risk in the moderate category for all beaches. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tide levels will remain elevated through the middle of next week due to large tidal departures resulting from a pinched pressure gradient with persistent northeast winds. The potential for coastal flooding will extend into Monday with the early afternoon high tide cycle, especially for coastal portions of Charleston and Colleton Counties. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ354. && $$ |
| #1244838 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Not to often we are talking drought during the peak of Hurricane Season yet here we are and you will not find any of us complaining. Dry and warm weather prevails throughout the entire forecast period with upper troughing across the eastern CONUS. Expect dry air to continue to linger with our area remaining on the backside of this feature. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 90`s for most locations each day, with overnight lows cooling into the lower to middle 60`s. A few spots over the interior may see middle 90`s on any given afternoon. A low risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions will persist with a light east-northeasterly wind through Sunday. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A light northeasterly flow today will likely become a light diurnal flow through the work week. No impacts are expected in the marine areas. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 90 66 91 65 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 69 90 69 90 69 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 88 69 88 70 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 61 92 61 92 61 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 91 64 91 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 91 63 91 63 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 61 90 62 90 63 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1244837 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Despite light onshore east-southeasterly surface winds, slight ridging and increased subsidence aloft is likely to reduce probabilities of showers and thunderstorms to a low (20-30%) chance this afternoon, limited to the Rio Grande Plains (Starr and Zapata counties), where upper level divergence will be slightly more favorable. Meanwhile, weakness between mid-level highs over the eastern Midwest and northern-central Mexico will allow for a trough swinging through the Plains to induce a weak mid-level low over south Texas tonight, fostering coastal troughing along Deep South Texas` coast and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, beginning tomorrow, Monday. Coastal troughing is expected to remain persistent into next week, resulting in a daily low to medium (30-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday as several mid-level disturbances pass over the region from another trough deepening across the Plains into the middle and later part of this week. Convective activity is anticipated to increase each day along the seabreeze boundary, increasing PoP`s throughout the morning as the boundary progresses westward, maximizing in the afternoon, with the highest PoP`s east of US-281/I-69 C and closer to the coast, bringing the potential for lightning, brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds. PoP`s may decrease throughout next weekend as the mid-level high over northern Mexico expands. The other focus of the forecast is the moderate risk for rip currents due to moderate easterly winds producing elevated surf (2-4 feet) and 6-7 second periods, likely to continue through at least midweek. Please keep in mind that the majority of rip current- related deaths along the Lower Texas Coast have occurred on days in which the risk of rip currents was moderate. Additionally, resulting water levels of 1.0-1.2 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), with minor coastal flooding possible within a few hours of high tide the next several nights, leading to the possibility of additional Coastal Flood Statements. Temperatures are expected to remain near average, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90`s inland, though a few areas across the Rio Grande Plains may hit upper 90`s, especially towards the end of the week as subsidence aloft enhances to the west. Overnight lows continue to fall into the low to mid 70`s inland and lower 80`s closer to the immediate coastline. Highs along the coast continue in the mid 80`s. Maximum afternoon heat indices of 100-105 degF are expected across most of the RGV and the coastal counties, leaving to mainly minor (level 1 of 4) heat risks, though enhanced humidity levels closer to the coast may yield moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risks. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Mostly easterly winds are expected to continue while some gusty conditions could occur during the afternoon hours, but should diminish by the evening hours. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours, but there is still uncertainty in the timing and chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Mostly moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and moderate (3-4 ft) seas continue into Friday, becoming gentle to moderate with slight to moderate (2-3 ft) seas next weekend. Chances of showers and thunderstorms return this evening, persisting into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 91 76 92 / 30 60 30 60 HARLINGEN 73 93 72 93 / 10 60 20 50 MCALLEN 76 96 75 95 / 10 50 10 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 95 72 95 / 10 30 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 80 87 / 40 60 50 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 90 76 90 / 30 60 30 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1244836 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1217 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Generally dry and hot conditions expected through the forecast period. - Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity possible each afternoon in our coastal counties beginning today and for much of this week. Couldn`t rule out some of this activity pushing north of I-10 today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Despite high pressure over the region, the atmosphere was able to squeak out a couple of isolated showers near the coast on Saturday. If we were able to produce a couple of brief showers yesterday, then I would expect we will see at least isolated to possibly scattered afternoon showers today as the upper level ridge begins to break down. Coverage will be greatest along the coast along the afternoon sea breeze, but some isolated activity could pop up as far north as the Piney Woods. The remainder of the week will be dry for most of the region, but there will be a daily chance of isolated afternoon showers or storms along the coast. A weakness in the northwesterly flow aloft may bring better chances of showers/storms further inland Thursday night into Friday, but coverage is still looking fairly limited at this time. A fairly consistent temperature forecast is expected this week with highs generally expected in the low to mid 90s (cooler at the coast) and lows generally in the low to mid 70s (warmer at the coast). Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 VFR through the evening into tonight. Patchy fog possible again overnight into Sunday morning for KCXO/KLBX. Winds light and variable. For Sunday, winds will be light out of the SE. Isolated showers will be possible during the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Light to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly flow (sustained 10-15kt, occasional gusts to 20kt) will persist through at least mid week with seas generally between 2-4ft. Isolated showers and storms over the coastal waters will be possible each day this week. The persistent onshore flow will lead to higher than normal high tides through at least the start of next week, peaking at around 3.0- 3.5ft above MLLW at times of high tide. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 93 73 93 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 88 80 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1244835 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 107 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Not as cool tonight with a few more clouds around, but radiation fog is possible again. Rain chances return Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week. With a low chance for showers for coastal parts of southern New England Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages... * More clouds High pressure shifts offshore overnight, allowing a light south to southwest wind to develop. Combined with some lingering higher clouds, expecting low temperatures to be slightly higher than what we saw this morning. While there still is a chance for some radiation fog, not thinking it will be as widespread as last night, and mainly in the CT River valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Best chance of some widely scattered showers and even a thunderstorm, but not everyone will see rain. Still expecting some weaker lift to move across our region Sunday. Projected instability is not all that impressive, amounting to only a few hundred J/kg. Much like today, while there is a low chance for a stray chance, am thinking most areas remain dry. The area most likely to experience a few showers looks to be from southern RI into south coastal MA during the afternoon. Drier conditions should return Sunday night as another high pressure over eastern Canada sends less humid air our way. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Seasonable temperatures to start the week with gradual warming. * Dry week ahead, low chance for showers from a passing weak low pressure system Wednesday night into Thursday. This stretch of quiet weather conditions is anticipated next week across the region with comfortable temperatures. Mid-level steering to kick off the week is broad ridging and followed by weak troughing the second-half of the week. At the surface, weak high pressure is the primary feature, but a weak coastal low does work up the east coast with the potential for a few showers late in the week. Next weekend does feature some unsettled weather, but a week out, there is time for changes. As for temperatures this week, 850mb guidance is near normal for the first-half of the week, with temperatures other either side of +12C. A look into BUFKIT shows deep mixing up to 850mb throughout most of the week, this will result in seasonable highs in the middle to upper 70s for Monday and Tuesday. WAA aloft will result in higher than normal temperatures Wednesday and Friday, with Thursday being the one exception due to cloud cover and periodic showers. Friday could be the warmest day of next week with DESI probabilities for high temperatures greater than 85F between 40-60 percent across the Connecticut River Valley and the Merrimack Valley. Heading into next weekend, there is potential for a backdoor cold front on Saturday. With high pressure in control much of this week there are very low chances for rain. There is a weak surface low pressure system that comes up the coast late Wednesday into Thursday, probabilities of precipitation greater than 0.10" are greatest along the south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands at 30-40 percent. Otherwise a mainly dry week ahead. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z Update... Today: High Confidence. VFR. Light S to SW winds. Low risk for a few afternoon -SHRA towards RI and SE MA. Tonight: High Confidence. VFR. Light NW to N winds. Monday: High Confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR, low confidence in valley fog developing, if it were to do so, it would likely occur 08z-13z. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR. Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Relatively light winds and seas through Sunday Night. Very low risk for a few stray showers towards the RI and SE MA coast Sunday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1244833 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1214 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Increasing risk of coastal flooding during high tide at night through the latter portions of next week - Daily low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances during the upcoming work week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 The forecast is continuing to remain on track from the previous issuance. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible once again along the Rio Grande Plains as the ridge continues to progress to the east. Chances are still progged to increase as moisture filters back into the region beginning Monday. Some shortwaves are expected to ride the eastern periphery of the ridge coupled with the daily seabreeze, will lead to a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week. The highest chance for precip will be around mid week (Wed. and Thur.) Chances decrease at the conclusion of the week. We will still be keeping an eye out for the potential for minor coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast. P-ETSS is continuing to indicate seas to be around 2 feet MSL through the majority of next week at the Aransas Pass gauge. This is expected to be coupled with a persisting southeasterly fetch during the high tide cycles. Will have to keep monitoring this due to the history of this producing wave run up at the beaches. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 VFR conditions are generally expected throughout this TAF cycle. There will be a low to medium chance for MVFR ceilings to develop across the western sites and a low chance for MVFR visibilities across ALI and VCT. Winds will increase slightly this afternoon before becoming light and variable tomorrow night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Expect east to southeasterly moderate breeze conditions to persist during the day and gentle breeze conditions during the overnight periods through the upcoming work week. There will be a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms next week. Seas will generally range from 3 to 5 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 76 92 / 0 10 10 30 Victoria 70 95 69 95 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 75 98 74 98 / 0 10 0 20 Alice 72 95 71 95 / 0 10 10 30 Rockport 79 91 78 91 / 0 20 20 20 Cotulla 74 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 73 93 72 92 / 0 10 10 30 Navy Corpus 81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1244831 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1212 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Overall it was another hot dry day yesterday but surprisingly not everyone stayed dry. in the mid to late afternoon there was actually a few storms that developed. That was contained to mainly a few parishes and one coastal MS county but even with the rather dry environment we still had a couple storms. Today will likely be a carbon copy of yesterday and even though the forecast won`t specifically show any rain, can not rule out a few isolated storms during the afternoon once again. The most likely location to see those one or two storms could be along the SELA coastal parishes. As the ridge starts to slide more to the north there could be some very subtle lift across the coast. The one locations with maybe just enough moisture to tap into should be along the SELA coast. For the rest of the area the ridge will still have enough of a hold on the region to lead to another rather warm day. We have been mixing to above h8 the last few days including up to h7 on Friday. Very likely to mix above h8 again today which should lead to another low humidity day with much of the area seeing dewpoints fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This will also lead to highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s again. Looking at the tides, as we have been mentioning for the past 3-4 days probabilistic extra-tropical surge guidance had been advertising minor coastal flood potential for this weekend but really hammering more on today and Monday. That has now backed off. Yes we are moving into the peak of the monthly spring tide but this set up was never a set up for coastal flooding. Typically we need some fetch to setup over the central and eastern Gulf for a few days out of the SE or ESE and that never occurred. With the guidance finally backing off the risk of needing a coastal flood advisory doesn`t appear necessary. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Last week models were trying to advertise some rather extreme temps through the first half of the work week. It will still be warm and above normal but nothing as extreme as models were indicating. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement through the week and the NBM looks consistent. With that no deviations made to the extended forecast from the latest NBM. The ridge that has been providing us this mid September heat will continue to work north and the base of the east coast L/W trough closing off along the sern CONUS coast. It will be rather large likely providing some mild influence as far west as the lower MS Valley which may keep the highs generally in the lower 90s instead of widespread mid 90s. As the closed mid lvl low starts to fill and merge with the main flow the ridge will flatten as a L/W trough develops over the central CONUS. This may allow for a few more storms to develop during the afternoon but we are still looking at only isolated at the best Thu and Fri. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions are currently in place and unless the one or two storms that could develop this afternoon moves directly over any one of those terminals it will remain in VFR status. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Weak surface high pressure will remain in control across the coastal waters through the first half of the work week. Winds will be fairly light with generally a easterly component over the waters. The inner waters, sounds, and tidal lakes will continue to be influenced by daily fluctuations from sea/lake breeze to land breeze. Waves/seas will generally be in the 1-2 ft for nearshore and protected waters with 2-4 ft in the outer waters. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 90 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 90 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 91 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1244832 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 104 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Local Nor`easter conditions today will fade tonight as low pressure along frontal boundary well offshore over the Atlantic waters lifts northward towards the Carolinas. This will slowly weaken the pressure gradient and onshore/NE flow through the period. Still expect breezy to windy conditions along the NE FL/SE GA coastal areas with NE flow at 15-25G30-35 mph today, likely remaining below wind advisory levels, before weakening to NE 15G25 mph tonight. Over inland areas NE winds will increase to near breezy levels at 15G25 mph this afternoon before weakening to 5-10 mph again tonight. The onshore flow will continue scattered to numerous showers and storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters through tonight, while only widely scattered showers are expected along the I-95 corridor and as far inland as the St. Johns River Basin from JAX southward to Palatka today, with isolated storm potential along the NE FL coastal areas and inland to the US 17 corridor/St. Johns River Basin. Max temps will continue at slightly below normal levels in the onshore flow with lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast to the middle 80s along the I-95/US-17 corridors to the upper 80s over far inland NE FL/inland SE GA areas. Weakening pressure gradient and mostly clear skies over inland areas will continue below normal temps with lows in the upper 50s over inland SE GA and lower/middle 60s over inland NE FL and near 70F along the Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Monday, the upper level pattern will feature a closed low over the region that will retrograde NW onto the Carolinas south of ridging parked over the Great Lakes. A surface weak coastal low NE of our local waters will slowly move towards the Carolina coastal waters through the day and allow our local pressure gradient to relax as it moves further away and less organized coastal showers activity that will move onto the coast south of the Jacksonville Beaches with perhaps an isolated T`storm. The onshore NNE winds will be less at the coast 12-18 mph gusting to 25 mph and 10-15 mph inland. Skies will be mostly sunny west of I-95. Highs will be in the low 80s at the coast, the mid 80s along/west of I-95 and the upper 80s much further inland. Monday night, clear skies will allow lows to fall in the low 60s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley and mid 60s over NE FL south of I-10, the upper 60s along I-95 and the low 70s confined at the NE FL coast with coastal winds diminishing to 5-10 mph overnight. Few coastal showers will remain offshore. Tuesday, The upper low will lift slowly towards the Mid Atlantic states and pull the surface low onto the Carolina Outer Banks. Drier air rotating through the base of the trough will keep our area dry with only a few showers over southern zones near the St Johns river/coast where higher dewpoints/low level moisture will remain allowing partly cloudy skies, but sunny farther inland. Highs will be a little below normal again due to low heights from the low aloft near the region and onshore northeast winds keeping highs along the coast in the low/mid 80s and warming to the upper 80s west of I-95. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 During the period, the pattern of light NE onshore flow continues. The upper low will lift away to the north Wednesday and Thursday and the surface low will weaken as it travels up the Mid Atlantic coast before dissipating on Thursday. Low to mid level ridging over the deep south will keep moisture levels below normal with dry conditions Wednesday with southern zones having an increase in moisture from the south Thursday leading scattered showers and isolated T`storms in the afternoon across north central FL. Friday, an upstream mid to upper level trough will swing across the Midwest into the OH valley with shortwave energy from the eastern Gulf lifting NE in response to the upstream approaching trough. This will lift a frontal boundary northward along the FL peninsula and spread more showers into southern zones Friday and into more of the area by next weekend with a risk of locally heavy rainfall returning to coastal portions of NE FL. Temperatures will return to near normal levels during the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Predominantly VFR conditions late tonight and into Sunday morning with a potential for MVFR cloud decks over KVQQ through this period. Winds will be more mild and variable overnight with onshore winds strengthening from out of the northeast by around 15-18z, extending over Jax metro sites with gusts rising up to around 20 knots. Winds decrease after sunset to 5 knots or less inland, remaining closer to 10 knots along the Atlantic Coast while VFR conds continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A wave of low pressure will track slowly northward along a stalled frontal boundary well offshore through early next week as high pressure persists northwest of the region. Gusty northeast winds between these two features will continue Small Craft Advisory conditions across the local waters today before the onshore flow slowly weakens early next week and seas slowly subside during the upcoming week. Waves of showers and isolated to scattered storms are expected, mainly across the northeast Florida waters. Shower and storm activity will slowly decrease during the upcoming week. Rip Currents: NE flow will continue a high risk of rip currents through Monday, as surf/breakers of 4-6 ft today will subside slowly to 3-5 ft on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Minor Coastal flooding/Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through Monday during each high tide cycle along the NE FL beachfront and along the St. Johns River Basin as strong NE flow continues. Latest PETSS guidance suggests the SE GA and Nassau county coastal areas should remain just below Minor Flood levels during this afternoon high tide cycle. For now peak high tides along the NE FL coast should remain around 2 ft MHHW and in the 1.5 to 2 ft MHHW range in the St. Johns River Basin, with only some locally Moderate peak flood levels this afternoon, so will hold off on any Coastal Flood Warning upgrade with this package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 83 68 82 68 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 86 64 86 66 / 20 10 20 0 SGJ 84 69 85 70 / 30 20 30 10 GNV 89 62 90 65 / 20 10 10 0 OCF 88 64 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ125-132-137- 138-225-233-325-333-633. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450- 452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470-472- 474. && $$ |
| #1244829 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 14.Sep.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1207 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Minor coastal flooding is possible between 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast of South Florida today. - Frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning is possible with the strongest storms today. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. - Higher rain chances return during the middle portion of the upcoming work week, this may result in an increased flood threat once again for urban areas. Stay tuned to the latest forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A drier airmass has settled into South Florida over the last several hours as light northerly surface winds across the region continues on the far western periphery of a developing area of low pressure just offshore of the southeastern United States. The frontal boundary that was previously stalled across our region has also pushed further southeast into the Florida Straits and is now well away from the region. Forecast precipitable water values today are more so in the 1.3 inch to 1.6 inch range (below climatological norms), a stark contrast compared to precipitable water values that were above the 90th percentile for much of the past week. Drier mid- level air mixing down during the afternoon hours will limit the overall extent of shower and thunderstorm activity, although there will still be enough moisture and lift along the sea-breeze to get a few showers and storms to develop. 500mb temperatures of -6C to -7C with marginal lapse rates may still result in the potential of 1 or 2 isolated storms that have robust cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts up to 40 mph. As our rain chances trend lower, the cooling benefits that we have seen from the previous widespread shower and storm coverage (cloud debris & outflow boundaries as well) over the past week will also trend lower. This will result in higher afternoon temperatures today although heat indices will remain below heat advisory thresholds thanks to the drier mid-level air mixing down to the surface. The non-tropical air of low pressure offshore of the Carolinas will begin a slow acceleration to the northeast by Monday, still attached to that pesky frontal boundary over the Florida Straits. Aloft, overnight guidance continues to depict the mid-level trough slowing down with a piece of mid-level energy remaining behind and becoming a cut off low just offshore or along the southeastern United States coast during this time-frame. The forecast for Monday is similar to today with rain chances in the 30-50% range, mainly focused along sea-breeze boundary collisions. High temperatures will remain similar to today with forecasted high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Effectively blocked by mid-level ridging to the east over the western Atlantic waters, the aforementioned cut-off low will remain in place over the southeastern United States coast through the middle portion of the work-week period before drifting northeastward out ahead of the next longwave trough. As the cut-off low begins to gradually drift eastward, the surface signal: a non-tropical area of low pressure just offshore of the Carolinas will lift northwards towards the Outer Banks and pass just offshore of the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday. The attached frontal boundary over the Florida Straits will be pulled back northwards as the "parent" surface low lifts north. As the front arrives back over South Florida, deeper moisture will make a return to the region with a notable increase in precipitable water values. Maximum daily rain chances increase from 30-50% at the beginning of the week to the 70-80% Wednesday through Friday. By Wednesday, forecast model guidance once again depicts the potential of a saturated atmosphere over South Florida with precipitable water values in the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range. Forecast model soundings once again depict a classic skinny CAPE profile that points to the potential of efficient rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding concerns. Ensemble guidance suites depict a higher QPF signal across the eastern half of the region which coincides with the return and stall of the frontal boundary. This checks out with the simulated 500mb regime during the second half of the week which features mid-level troughing over the eastern United States and southwesterly flow over South Florida. After a respite during the first half of the work-week, an active mid to late week portion of the week is becoming increasingly likely as model guidance continues to iron out the specifics. The threat of localized flooding may return across the region as thunderstorms with efficient rainfall rates could produce bursts of heavy rainfall in short periods of time. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) adds back in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive flooding for the majority of South Florida on Wednesday. Details will continue to become clearer as we move forward in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Light and variable winds this morning will veer onshore by the early afternoon hours becoming Erly at east coast terminals and Wrly at KAPF. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA may bring sub-MVFR cigs and vis at any impacted terminal along with erratic wind shifts. Winds will become light and variable once again after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A gentle to moderate northerly breeze will continue across most of the local waters into early next week before veering out of a northeasterly direction and enhancing by the mid week period. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 4 feet through mid next week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will be possible each day near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Minor coastal flooding is possible along the east coast of South Florida today within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect until 5pm this afternoon. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the weekend as onshore flow continues and a northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters lingers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 75 90 78 / 40 30 50 30 West Kendall 90 73 90 75 / 40 20 50 20 Opa-Locka 90 75 90 77 / 40 30 50 30 Homestead 89 74 89 76 / 40 30 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 89 75 89 77 / 40 30 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 76 90 78 / 40 30 40 20 Pembroke Pines 92 75 92 77 / 40 30 50 30 West Palm Beach 89 75 90 76 / 30 20 40 20 Boca Raton 90 75 90 76 / 30 30 40 20 Naples 89 74 90 75 / 20 20 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
