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| #1274590 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 313 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the previous forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days. 2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days. We enter a more typical precipitation pattern with showers and storms primarily in the afternoon with the sea breeze under a wide field of high pressure. Dry air may lower coverage tomorrow and Saturday before moisture returns from the south Sunday. Into early next week the high will strengthen with rain chances isolated to scattered, most likely on the sea breeze in the afternoon and then inland in the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index may potentially reach 105F in some areas every day starting as early as Sunday but more likely Monday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Intermittent restrictions in showers/storms possible through the first 6 hrs of the TAF period starting near the coast and then for inland terminals. Then tonight there is the threat of fog and low stratus, mainly at inland terminals at this time, starting ~09Z but the timing will need refining. A similar, afternoon shower/storm pattern is expected Friday, but coverage will be lower. Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day. && .MARINE... Tonight through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period with winds averaging out of the south ~10-15 kt. Low to moderate chances of showers and storms remain in place every day. Seas will average 2- 4 ft with a persistent 7-8 second SE swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274589 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 310 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - A Typical summertime pattern is expected over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts expected. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Mid-level trough remains over the region through Friday with meridional flow maintaining a moist air mass with PWATS near average. Shower/storm chances this afternoon/evening will focus around and east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers, but any storms that manage to fire to the west may be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts given higher DCAPE. On Friday, the pattern should allow for more shower/storm coverage west of the Flint/Apalachicola. A westward translating inverted trough rounding the Atlantic subtropical high pressure will increase PWATs into the 90th percentile. This results in greater shower/storm coverage this weekend, especially in the I-10/I-75 corridors where the seabreezes collide. Looking ahead to next week, the 0-3 km flow becomes increasingly westerly as mid-level ridging builds aloft. This will favor below average precip chances, and in turn, increasing heat with highs in the mid-90s away from the coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today with higher coverage over the eastern areas. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Gentle to moderate breezes are expected over the next several days with significant wave heights around 1 to 2 feet. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Easterly winds through this weekend will maximize each morning. From the late morning into the evening, winds will become onshore and maximize within the seabreeze zone. By the early to middle of next week, winds will become southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Friday and Saturday with erratic and gusty winds possible near any storms, in addition to lightning. Easterly transport winds both days with the seabreeze making inland progress. Generally fair dispersions during the afternoon. Heat index values will be around 100 to 105 degrees. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The pattern will trend drier during the early to middle part of next week. Rainfall over the next week is expected to end up below average across the region. The risk for flash flooding is very low and riverine flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 93 75 93 / 20 20 10 40 Panama City 75 91 75 92 / 20 50 0 30 Dothan 73 92 74 93 / 20 20 10 20 Albany 73 93 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 Valdosta 72 95 73 95 / 30 20 0 40 Cross City 72 93 73 93 / 30 50 10 70 Apalachicola 77 88 77 88 / 60 50 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274588 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 220 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week. - Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into early next week. - A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Through Sunday, an upper high off the East Coast builds west over the Southeast, shifting a weakness in an upper ridge over the Southeast further west. A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast shifts north to over the Southeast proper, albeit remains disorganized with the upper weakness over/near the region still exerting some influence. The limited organized deep layer flow off the Gulf will keep moisture levels around 2", with guidance advertising bands of drier air moving over the the forecast area at times into the weekend. The inconsistent moisture levels along with building upper ridge is limiting PoPs to isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon/early evening over land areas, the rest of the week through the weekend. Am also still expecting isolated convection to form over the open Gulf and coast later in the night into the morning hours as the slight cooling over Gulf waters allow for shallow (relative to land areas) convection to form. With good afternoon instability (MLCapes rising to 2000-2500J/kg at times), but limited wind shear, pulse type storms are expected. Add in DCapes around 1000J/kg range, damaging downbursts are possible in the taller storms. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms through Sunday. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s (around 90 along the coast) are expected. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are expected. Heat indices generally in the 100-107 degree range are expected each day. Monday on, guidance starts to diverge in the upper levels, with some deterministic guidance advertising the upper weakness west of the Southeast working its way back east over the region, whilst others keep it west. The result is a bit warmer/drier forecast as apposed to a bit cooler/wetter. The overall difference is small, so near seasonal temperatures and PoPs a bit below are expected. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, outside of any thunderstorms. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings, along with gusty and erratic winds, near any thunderstorms. Winds will become calm overnight. Another round of storms may develop along the coastline by 09z or so. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land breeze sets up with the night cooling. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 0 Pensacola 89 76 90 76 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 20 10 Evergreen 92 71 92 72 / 30 20 10 10 Waynesboro 96 72 95 73 / 30 20 0 10 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 10 Crestview 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274587 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 307 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. Although it remains very warm into the weekend, the level of heat does begin to drop off so the current thought is to not extend the Heat Advisory beyond Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity continues into Friday, with only a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. - Cool front brings scattered storms Saturday. Less humidity levels and dry weather Sunday but daily shower/storm chances resume early to midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity continues into Friday, with only a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Latest model guidance does not show much need for changes to the forecast for the remainder of today and tomorrow. As typical with convection, even hi-res models struggle with timing, placement and coverage. We have already seen a few showers develop across areas further east (ie: Boston area to the North Shore) than was previously anticipated. With the SW flow, the south coast sea breeze is moving northward and thus expect shower chances to remain north of this boundary as the afternoon/evening goes on. We do have a decent amount of Mixed Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) on the order of 2000 J/kg, but mid level lapse rates are very meager, so not expecting any substantial thunderstorm development. Convection will wane with sunset. With the very moist airmass, we will again see the development of stratus and fog later tonight, especially across the southern half of SNE. Like today, those clouds and fog will "burn" off tomorrow morning. No real airmass change, though if anything, it will be a degree or two warmer. 925mb temperatures today were in the 23-24C range, and that rises to 25-26C on Friday. When combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index (feels like) temperatures will top out well into the 90s, if not low 100s. Thus the Heat Advisory will continue. There will be a warm layer aloft (above roughly 850mb/5000ft) that will act as a lid to keep convection at bay. Though an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible, they should be more the exception and likely contained to far western areas where the hilly terrain will help focus convective development. Guidance is a little unclear for Friday night, but we might see some late evening convection move in from the west. Just kept with NBM PoPs showing roughly 20-40% PoPs overnight for the CT River Valley and points east. KEY MESSAGE2...Cool front brings scattered storms Saturday. Less humidity levels and dry weather Sunday but daily shower/storm chances resume early to midweek. All in all a general sameness to the weather pattern day-by-day through Saturday, with warm temperatures in the 80s with very high humidity levels, to go along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances following the diurnal cycle. Saturday offers a better shot a a bit more thunderstorm coverage with a cool front, although the risk for organized severe weather looks minimal, kept in check by weak windfields aloft leading to deep layer shear magnitudes in the 25-30 kt range and generally slower SWly storm motions. This front will offer somewhat lower humidity levels, basically knocking dewpoints down from current "oppressive" values in the low to mid 70s to "humid" mid/upper 60s levels. Storms would be capable of lightning and heavy rain, with the strongest of those storms capable of frequent lightning and localized downdrafts capable of sporadic wind damage, but those should be a very small subset of the storms. Weak subsidence and marginally lower dewpoints could limit or mitigate shower/storm chances on Sunday, although still with the usual summer warmth. The risk for daily shower and thunderstorm chances also increases early to mid next week as the Northeast states become more influenced by a somewhat stronger belt of westerly midlevel flow. With stronger winds aloft with that comes a somewhat better chance for storms becoming strong/severe but the timing is still uncertain. Stayed fairly close to NBM forecast values during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF update. Moderate Confidence. No big changes to the forecast. Dealing with mainly VFR, although stratus is resulting in some IFR for the Islands. Sea breezes have developed along both coasts, but the east coast sea breeze is pinned pretty close to the coast. Isolated showers dot the area, and a TSRA can`t be ruled out later this afternoon. Though the better chances are across the western areas. Placed some PROB30s in TAFs where the better chances exists. Overnight expect a similar situation to unfold as last night. Basically low clouds/stratus and some fog to produce IFR conditions, especially across the southern half of the area. Could also have some fog in the CT River Valley. Those clouds/fog should dissipate fairly quickly Friday morning, except places like ACK and parts of the Cape where it will take a little longer. Could be a few SHRA/-TSRA across the interior Friday afternoon. Looking forward to Friday night, additional low clouds/fog should develop near the south coastal areas. Could also see additional TSRA activity lingering well into late evening across western areas. Later forecasts will fine tune those details. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Sea breeze expected to push out a little earlier than the typical 23-00z time. Expect BOS to be on the northern edge of stratus that develops late tonight across southern areas. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence. Monitoring TSRA across eastern NY as to whether they will make it to BDL later this afternoon. Some uncertainty as to the coverage of any stratus and fog late tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday... High Confidence. No significant changes to the forecast. Overall weather pattern shows a large area of high pressure off the east coast. This will continue to produce a SW flow across the entire region into the weekend. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ003>007-010>021-026. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274586 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 203 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week, with peak heat indices 105 to 110, and high to extreme WBGT values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Spotty showers have been popping up in association with a surface shortwave trough and the arrival of the seabreeze. These will continue to be isolated in nature and taper off this evening. Mid- level high pressure will dominate the period leading to warm and mostly rain free conditions outside of isolated seabreeze convection each day. This is thanks to some midlevel energy riding the periphery of ridge as it builds from the east. Will continue to monitor the need for some short- fused heat related products. We could see heat indices up to 115 at times with dew points around the mid to upper 70s present through the next week. This translates to Moderate to Major heat stress conditions though we could see some areas reach Extreme conditions by Wednesday. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions can be expected through the period once again. Periods of MVFR cigs and VSBYs will be possible once again tomorrow morning at a couple eastern terminals (mainly ALI and VCT though not out of the question for CRP). Winds will be breezy out of the south until this evening before becoming generally light. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Gentle to moderate onshore flow will be expected through the forecast period, occasionally fresh winds can be observed along the nearshore waters and bays during the afternoon. Seas will generally range from 2-3 feet through the period. Daily rain chances will be under 20% through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Min RHs will generally drop into the 25-35% range each afternoon through the weekend in the western Brush country and Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs combined with ERCs in the 55-75th percentile range will support localized elevated fire weather conditions over this region each day, however fuel moisture are generally near normal, thus any elevated conditions should be limited. Winds will gradually increase out of the E-SE in the 12 to 18 kt range during the afternoons. Daily rain chances will generally be 10% or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 93 77 93 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 76 97 74 96 / 0 20 0 20 Laredo 78 102 76 101 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 75 98 74 97 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 81 91 80 91 / 0 10 10 10 Cotulla 76 102 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 96 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 89 81 89 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274584 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 135 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect across inland deep south Texas today for heat indices of 105-110 F. - Daily low rain chances each afternoon along the seabreeze through Sunday. - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) today become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday. Heat Risk returns to major early next week. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Clearing clouds near the southeast coast after showers this morning are allowing temps to climb under daytime heating. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect for all of deep South Texas until 6 PM for heat indices of 105-110, where a few locations may briefly reach or surpass 111. Sandwiched between a Bermuda high over the eastern Gulf and high pressure over the desert SW will keep the forecast mostly copacetic. Shortwaves riding along the periphery of these highs will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm chances along the sea breeze each day over the weekend. Rain chances remain generally low at 20% or less each afternoon, limited primarily east of US281. Deep moisture will continue to increase through the weekend with easterly flow aloft, with the highest rain chances (still low, around 30%) expected Sunday. These showers may bring briefly heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Widespread rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed a half an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible under heavy showers, or areas under training storms. Increased moisture, cloud cover and any rain will help to limit apparent temperatures this weekend with a reduced risk (minor to moderate) of heat related illness. This sounds pleasant, but guidance still suggests up to a sticky 110 heat index this weekend. Ridging expands over TX early next week, returning southerly flow aloft and drier mid-levels. This will limit rain chances into the workweek, but will allow for heat to increase yet again. By early next workweek, Moderate to Major risk of heat- related illness returns. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty south- southeasterly winds continue through the evening at all sites, lessening up near sunset. There is a low chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon along the seabreeze heading inland. There is high uncertainty regarding if or when these showers will pass over a TAF site. If a shower or storm happens to pass over an airfield, expect briefly gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing visibility and ceilings to MVFR levels, and possible lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf are possible each day through the weekend, with chances increasing from low today (20%), peaking at low to moderate (30-50%) Sunday morning. Generally southeasterly to onshore moderate to gentle flow with slight seas will persist, with breezy conditions along the nearshore and Laguna Madre each afternoon. Flow strengthens next week to a more consistent moderate, and may return Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 94 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 76 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 80 101 78 100 / 0 20 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 77 99 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 87 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 0 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274585 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 135 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect across inland deep south Texas today for heat indices of 105-110 F. - Daily low rain chances each afternoon along the seabreeze through Sunday. - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) today become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday. Heat Risk returns to major early next week. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Clearing clouds near the southeast coast after showers this morning are allowing temps to climb under daytime heating. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect for all of deep South Texas until 6 PM for heat indices of 105-110, where a few locations may briefly reach or surpass 111. Sandwiched between a Bermuda high over the eastern Gulf and high pressure over the desert SW will keep the forecast mostly copacetic. Shortwaves riding along the periphery of these highs will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm chances along the sea breeze each day over the weekend. Rain chances remain generally low at 20% or less each afternoon, limited primarily east of US281. Deep moisture will continue to increase through the weekend with easterly flow aloft, with the highest rain chances (still low, around 30%) expected Sunday. These showers may bring briefly heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Widespread rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed a half an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible under heavy showers, or areas under training storms. Increased moisture, cloud cover and any rain will help to limit apparent temperatures this weekend with a reduced risk (minor to moderate) of heat related illness. This sounds pleasant, but guidance still suggests up to a sticky 110 heat index this weekend. Ridging expands over TX early next week, returning southerly flow aloft and drier mid-levels. This will limit rain chances into the workweek, but will allow for heat to increase yet again. By early next workweek, Moderate to Major risk of heat- related illness returns. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty south- southeasterly winds continue through the evening at all sites, lessening up near sunset. There is a low chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon along the seabreeze heading inland. There is high uncertainty regarding if or when these showers will pass over a TAF site. If a shower or storm happens to pass over an airfield, expect briefly gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing visibility and ceilings to MVFR levels, and possible lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf are possible each day through the weekend, with chances increasing from low today (20%), peaking at low to moderate (30-50%) Sunday morning. Generally southeasterly to onshore moderate to gentle flow with slight seas will persist, with breezy conditions along the nearshore and Laguna Madre each afternoon. Flow strengthens next week to a more consistent moderate, and may return Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 94 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 76 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 80 101 78 100 / 0 20 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 77 99 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 87 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 0 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274583 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - An inverted trough lifting northward across the Florida peninsula Friday into Saturday will lead to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents. - Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida. - Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Through Tonight...Scattered showers and storms continue to develop and move westward across the Florida peninsula this afternoon, with coverage anticipated to continue increasing as activity moves farther inland, especially near and west of the I-4 corridor. Limited cloud coverage earlier in the day supported adequate daytime heating prior to the start of convective development, with temperatures remaining on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Analyzed MLCAPE exceeds 2000 J/kg areawide and lifted index values range between -8 to -6. DCAPE remains generally between 600-900 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures range between -9C to -8C across east central Florida. Based on this environment, anticipate storms to produce frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, heavy downpours that could lead to brief, localized flooding in some spots, and even small hail. Strong easterly flow aloft will keep activity moving towards the west and northwest at 10 to 15 mph through this afternoon, with activity gradually diminishing late this afternoon into this evening across the peninsula. While mostly dry conditions are forecast across the peninsula later today, there is a chance for continued isolated to scattered shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters. Some activity may be able to move onshore given the persistent easterly flow at the surface and aloft, especially from the Cape southward. Muggy conditions persist into the overnight hours with lows remaining in the mid 70s areawide. Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough situated near the Bahamas is forecast to lift northward across the Florida peninsula late this week into the early weekend. Guidance has trended slightly slower with the trough`s arrival and departure across the state, though the overall message remains the same: moisture will increase areawide. PWAT`s of 2.1-2.3" are forecast locally, which will in turn translate to higher than normal rain chances (60-80% Friday, 50-70% Saturday). The higher rain chances extend across the whole area on Friday and are favored towards the interior and I-4 corridor on Saturday, due to the inverted trough lifting north and away from the area. Storms cannot be ruled out with activity on either day thanks to modest MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg and greater, cool temperatures aloft ranging from -7C to -6C at 500 mb, and downdraft CAPE of 600-900 J/kg. Overall, storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and with the greater moisture present, heavy downpours. While steering flow looks to be sufficient on Friday, some weakening in the lower levels on Saturday could lead to a slightly greater risk of localized flooding across east central Florida. Overall, rainfall totals of 2-4" will be possible Friday and Saturday, with localized higher amounts not able to be ruled out in some locations that see multiple rounds of showers or slow-moving activity. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the evening and overnight hours, though persistent onshore flow will support continued development across the local Atlantic waters Friday night. Saturday night, drier conditions are anticipated areawide. The greater moisture and in turn greater cloud coverage will work to help limit daytime heating across east central Florida, keeping afternoon temperatures relatively close to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. The moist air mass will keep relative humidities high, which will still keep peak heat indices of 100-107F possible across the area. Overnight lows generally remain in the mid 70s. At the beaches, increasing choppy surf from the passing inverted trough is anticipated. This means there will likely be an increasing risk for rip currents at all local beaches, so caution is advised. If necessary, a high risk of rip currents may be warranted. Sunday-Wednesday...Mid-level ridging drifts back towards the Florida peninsula early next week, strengthening as it remains overhead. At the surface, the Atlantic high will shift southward, with the ridge axis once again extending towards the Florida peninsula. Lingering moisture in the wake of the inverted trough will lead to 40-60% rain and storm chances on Sunday, with values returning closer to normal into the start of the work week. Drier air aloft looks to move overhead, which will help limit some convective development Monday onward. Any activity that does develop will be diurnally driven, with the sea breeze the primary forcing mechanism for development each afternoon. While exact storm threats can`t be pinned down at this point, would anticipate the typical summertime storm hazards all being possible; lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Showers and storms will diminish across the peninsula during the late evening and overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions across east central Florida each night. With the Atlantic high reestablishing itself overhead, temperatures are anticipated to trend near to slightly above normal through the extended period. While too early to give exact values, current guidance does show peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide with a low chance of exceeding 108F in some spots, especially Monday onward. Will keep a close eye on trends and issue any heat products as necessary. Limited relief from the muggy conditions through the overnight hours, with lows remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The Atlantic ridge axis drifts north of the waters over the next few days as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula and local waters. Increasing onshore flow is anticipated beginning tonight, with cautionary statements tonight into Friday across the the Gulf Stream waters as winds increase to 15 to 20 knots and seas build to 3 to 6 feet areawide. By Saturday the pressure gradient loosens as the trough lifts north, with southerly winds between 5 to 15 knots prevailing from Saturday onward as the Atlantic high begins to settle southward. Seas respond to the lighter winds by subsiding back to 2-4 feet on Saturday and 1-3 feet Sunday onward. Scattered showers and storms are forecast across the local Atlantic waters tonight through Saturday as a result of the increasing moisture from the passing trough. Drier conditions are anticipated Saturday night onward across the waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms are ongoing across east central Florida. The greatest coverage is expected to continue across the interior with TEMPOs at MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE. Lower coverage along the coast is mainly handled with VCSH/VCTS for isolated onshore moving showers this afternoon. Activity across the interior should diminish or move west of the terminals through late afternoon and into the evening. Increasing coverage of scattered onshore moving showers is forecast along the coast overnight. Prevailing winds remain out of the east, but may become variable in vicinity of storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 88 76 89 / 20 70 50 70 MCO 76 90 76 91 / 20 70 30 70 MLB 78 88 77 90 / 30 60 40 50 VRB 77 89 76 90 / 40 60 40 50 LEE 76 89 77 90 / 30 70 30 70 SFB 77 91 77 92 / 10 70 30 70 ORL 77 90 77 91 / 20 70 30 70 FPR 77 88 76 90 / 50 60 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274582 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 240 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 - Hot and hazardous conditions will persist through the weekend, with above-normal temperatures and dangerous afternoon heat indices expected across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Additional heat products will likely be needed in the coming days. - A drier and more stable weather pattern will develop tonight and persist through the weekend. Limited rainfall is expected, allowing drought conditions to continue worsening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to arrive late this weekend, resulting in hazy skies and occasional reductions in visibility. - Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through this afternoon across southern and southwestern Puerto Rico due to critically dry fuels, low relative humidity, and breezy easterly winds. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect, and residents should avoid outdoor burning and activities that could generate sparks or open flames. && .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 Mainly tranquil conditions continued in the morning hours, with few isolated showers moving south of Ponce. High clouds associated with an upper-level low near Jamaica moved across the region, affecting mainly the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Minimum temperatures were slightly warmer than yesterday, with urban and coastal areas in the mid 70s to lower 80s (80 degrees Fahrenheit at the LMM International Airport) while interior portions of Puerto Rico remained in the 60s. As of 2 PM AST, maximum temperatures ranged between the upper 80s and lower 90s across urban and low- lying areas, with the ASOS at the LMM International Airport reporting 92 degrees Fahrenheit (record set at 93 degrees Fahrenheit). The 12z RAOB came very dry compared to the 05/12z sounding, as a drier-than-normal airmass continues to filter into the region. In the mid-levels, the sounding reported RH values of 35%, while low-level moisture dropped only 10%. Although conditions will gradually become stable, lingering moisture and slight instability will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western side of Puerto Rico. An Special Weather Statement was in effect through 1830z. Nevertheless, rainfall accumulations should remain localized with at most ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas. The weather pattern will continue to be dominated by the surface high pressure building over the Western Atlantic, maintaining winds from the E-SE for the rest of today, though the may shift from the E- ENE on Friday and Saturday. The latest satellite-derived products show stable and drier-than-normal airmass that should continue to filter into the region, with PWAT values around 1.25 inches. From the latest model guidance, these values may range between 1.2 and 1.4 inches as patches of moisture arrive from time to time, bringing occasional showers during the night into morning hours over windward sections. In terms of instability, an upper-level low approaching the region could lower heights and slightly cool mid-level temperatures (500 mb temperatures between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius). Nevertheless, the CWA will likely be under the subsidence side of the low, with sinking air and stability above that should inhibit deeper convection activity. HIRES models suggests that afternoon convection should start over portions of interior and western/southwestern Puerto Rico. Due to the combination of local effects, daytime heating, and sea breeze convergence, isolated thunderstorms could be possible over the aforementioned areas. Nevertheless, widespread showers are not expected and flooding impacts if any should lead to localized ponding of water over roadways and flood-prone areas. This pattern should repeat on Wednesday as well, though a dense SAL approaching the Caribbean Basin will gradually filter by late Saturday, inhibiting deep convection. Sensitive groups must follow medical recommendations. As mentioned in the previous discussions, the heat remains as the primary hazard as warmer than normal conditions continue across the CWA. Although winds should become from the E-ENE, highs should remain in the upper 80s and low 90s across urban and low-lying areas during the peak hours of the day, with heat indices exceeding a 100 degrees Fahrenheit. These levels of heat could affect mainly individuals sensitive to heat or those without adequate hydration and/or effective cooling. Hence, the heat threat will remain elevated throughout the forecast period, and heat products may be required. On the other hand, extreme heat warnings cannot be ruled out. && .Long Term(Sunday through next Wednesday)... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 A progressive weather pattern is expected as tropical waves, easterly wind surges, and a TUTT low move through or near the eastern Caribbean. The first wave will approach Sunday and move across the region through Monday. Although the deepest moisture should remain mainly over the Caribbean waters, Sunday and Monday currently appear to have the greatest potential for increased shower and thunderstorm coverage. Afternoon convection should be most noticeable over interior and western Puerto Rico, with an elevated lightning risk where thunderstorms develop. A brief period of lower moisture is possible late Monday into early Tuesday, followed by a strong easterly wind surge. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail through much of the period, with Tuesday potentially becoming the windiest day. Moisture may increase again from Wednesday into Thursday as another tropical wave approaches, but confidence in its timing and associated rainfall remains low. Wednesday could become the warmest day if cloud and shower coverage remains limited, with elevated to significant heat risks continuing through the period. Despite occasional increases in moisture and convection, widespread or prolonged rainfall is not anticipated. Therefore, significant relief from the ongoing severe drought and water-supply concerns is unlikely. Rainfall and lightning impacts will depend greatly on the timing of each feature and how much tropical moisture reaches the local islands. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conds will continue across all terminals. Aftn convtn will lead to -TSRA across W/NW PR, with VCTS over JBQ. Although most -TSRA should remain in the vicinity, AMDs will be issued if required. Winds from the E-SE will continue this aftn, btwn 11-16 kt, with gusts up to 22-24 kt, weakening and becoming VRB by 06/23z. Increasing winds btwn 11 - 16 kt with gusts up to 25kt should become from the E-ENE by 07/12-13z. VCSH could be expcd over the USVI TAFs in the early morning, followed by aftn convtn over W/SW PR. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure across the Caribbean will promote fresh east to east-southeast winds tonight through the weekend, resulting in choppy marine conditions across the Atlantic waters, local passages, and portions of the Caribbean waters. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 feet, occasionally up to 6 feet offshore. Moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to arrive late Friday and persist through the weekend, occasionally reducing visibility. Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution and monitor the latest forecasts. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues across the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico due to persistent easterly winds and wind- driven waves. Elsewhere, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, the rip current risk remains generally low through the afternoon. As easterly winds strengthen tonight and through the end of the week, the rip current risk is expected to increase for Culebra and St. Croix and may expand to additional exposed east-facing beaches. Beachgoers should remain aware of changing surf conditions and heed the advice of local officials and beach warning flags. Heat continues to be the primary beach hazard through the remainder of the day, while isolated thunderstorms affecting western Puerto Rico through late afternoon may produce dangerous cloud-to-water lightning near area beaches before dissipating this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions continue this afternoon across southern and southwestern Puerto Rico, where critically dry fuels, low relative humidity, and breezy easterly winds are supporting an increased risk for wildfire ignition and spread. Relative humidity values have fallen into the upper 40s to lower 50s across portions of the southern coastal plains while sustained east winds of 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, continue to promote rapid fire growth should any fires develop. Although isolated showers remain possible across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico through late afternoon, rainfall coverage and amounts are expected to be insufficient to provide meaningful relief over the southern coastal plains, where fuels remain critically dry. A drier and more stable weather pattern will become established tonight and persist through the weekend as mid-level ridging strengthens and moisture decreases. Easterly trade winds will remain breezy each day, while afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to trend lower, particularly across southern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Combined with ongoing rainfall deficits and critically dry fine fuels, these conditions will support an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat each afternoon, especially across the southern and southwestern coastal plains of Puerto Rico. Residents and visitors should continue to avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with activities capable of producing sparks or open flames, as favorable conditions for wildfire ignition and rapid spread are expected to persist through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 235 PM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 Drought conditions continue to deteriorate across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Extreme Drought (D3) has been introduced across the southern coastal plains of Puerto Rico. The most significant impacts are agricultural, although dry rivers and soils, along with significant rainfall deficits, also supported this classification. Severe Drought (D2) has also expanded across portions of the interior and eastern sections of Puerto Rico. Localized water service interruptions are affecting some of these areas as surface water reservoirs continue to decline. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, Exceptional Drought (D4), the highest drought classification, has also been introduced. Impacts to cattle and poultry are significant. Additional impacts include insufficient rainfall to replenish cisterns, stressed vegetation, and the depletion of groundwater wells. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007- 008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274581 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 was updated to reflect current observations and ongoing thunderstorms. For Key Message 2, there is increased confidence in mainly dry conditions Friday, as well as morning convection along the immediate coast Saturday, spreading inland through the morning and afternoon. The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) This afternoon will feature scattered thunderstorms across the SC Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. - 2) A typical summertime pattern will prevail this weekend into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: This afternoon will feature scattered thunderstorms across the SC Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. The KCLX radar continues to detect thunderstorms across the region this afternoon, mainly inland of the sea breeze. The KCHS 12Z RAOB Sounding this morning had a PWAT value of 1.9", with mesoanalysis from SPC showing around 2.1" across the region as of 2 PM. Storm motions this afternoon are not overly impressive, however they appear fast enough to limit the heavy rainfall threat. Similar to the past several nights, convection is expected to redevelop over the Atlantic late tonight as low- level convergence shifts back along the west wall of the Gulf Stream after midnight. Activity does not look as extensive as the past few nights, but some degree of isolated to perhaps scattered showers/tstms will make a run for the coast during the early morning hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. The pattern will be dominated by deep high pressure over the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. While upper subsidence likely suppresses most convective activity Friday, the pattern will support daily scattered convection each day thereafter. There is increasing confidence that Saturday will begin with morning showers and storms, especially along the GA beaches, with outflow potentially developing new activity north and westward through the late morning and early afternoon Saturday. Then, Sunday and into next week, the sea breeze and any remnant outflow boundaries will serve as the primary focus for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect deep moisture into the region. Moderate instability looks to develop each afternoon, with SBCAPE values rising to 2500-3000 J/kg. PWAT values near or slightly above 2 inches each day from Saturday onward will support efficient rainfall rates, with some storms capable of dropping a quick 1-2 inches of rain in a short period. In addition, slow storm motions of around 10 kt, combined with training or repeated rounds of convection, could increase the potential for isolated instances of minor flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Lastly, with little shear in the environment, storms will remain pulse-like. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger to marginally severe storms could produce damaging wind gusts. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prevailing VFR through the 18Z TAFs at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Showers and tstorms have pushed inland of the terminals as of 18Z and additional impacts to the terminals this afternoon are unlikely. There is a low chance of some fog development late tonight/early Friday morning, however the current forecast keeps it inland of the terminals. Therefore have not included mention of it in the TAFs at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms this week and into this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Generally quiet marine conditions are expected through the remainder of this afternoon as showers and tstorms will likely remain onshore. Another round of showers/tstorms is possible across the marine zones late tonight/early Friday morning. Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant synoptic feature through the weekend. Light to moderate winds prevail with gusty winds along the land/sea interface each afternoon associated with the sea breeze. Be alert for the potential for nocturnal jetting to set up Sunday into early next week, keeping breezy conditions in place along the beaches overnight. This feature is typically poorly resolved by models, but the combination of the weak surface trough shifting inland with persistent strong high pressure offshore and very warm water makes for a favorable setup. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274580 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 207 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes through the period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A return to more typical summertime pattern through much of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms have popped up along the sea breeze and some residual differential heating boundaries from earlier cloud cover. Some convection has been accompanied by frequent lightning and heavier showers but the vast majority of the activity is expected to stay sub severe this afternoon. Short term models have shower and thunderstorm activity decreasing through the evening and ceasing around 00z. Taking a wider view for the upcoming period, an upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through Saturday, becoming suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic. More of a zonal pattern develops next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period with limited shear and forcing. A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in play for all terminals this afternoon with more coverage currently in the vicinity of EWN and OAJ and then will progress northwestward as the sea breeze pushes inland bringing occasional sub- VFR conditions within heavier showers and storms. A similar set up with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for fog and stratus again late Thursday night with PGV and ISO the most likely terminals to experience MVFR/IFR ceilings. Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. && .MARINE... Bermuda high will remains in control as it sits off the coast. S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft continue to prevail. As we move into tomorrow, somewhat stronger winds are possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through the weekend as temps warm inland, bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the inland rivers and near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Nearshore coastal waters should have less convective coverage this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High and off the NC coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274579 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 154 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - The typical afternoon convective pattern today before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents. - Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida. - Near normal temperatures into early weekend, with a slight warming trend forecast into early next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US coast will remain in place through the period as a trough moves eastward across the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure just off the eastern US in the western Atlantic will move ever so slightly northward into tonight. Locally winds will become more easterly areawide, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. This dominate onshore flow will continue to promote isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast through the morning and early afternoon hours. Can not rule out an isolated lightning storm or two moving onshore through that time. Coverage of showers and lightning storms will increase and transition to across the interior in the afternoon as the diffuse east coast sea breeze moves inland. Moisture across the area will remain high, with forecast PW values of 1.9-2.1" across the area, which supports convection into this afternoon. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms this afternoon. Due to the persistent east to southeast flow aloft, convection today will move west to northwest around 10-15 mph. The environment is conducive for storms this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2200-3000 J/kg), Strong buoyancy (lifted index greater than -4), cooler temperatures aloft (-8C to -9C at 500 mb), and ample downdraft potential (DCAPE 500-800 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, the threat for minor, localized flooding will continue. Any lingering activity will diminish late this evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Atlantic waters overnight, with some of this activity potentially moving onshore along the coast. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-105F this afternoon. Conditions will continue to be muggy into tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Friday-Sunday... An upper level high pressure in the western Atlantic on Friday will steadily shift southward and build across the Florida peninsula by late weekend. At the surface, an inverted trough over the Bahamas on Friday will lift northward across the Florida peninsula through early weekend. Locally, this inverted trough will bring an increase in moisture across the area, with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2" areawide. This will result in above normal rain chances through early weekend. There is a high (70-80 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Friday, and a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance on Saturday. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return closer to normal on Sunday (PoP 30-60 percent) as winds become lighter locally as the ridge axis moves over the Florida peninsula, resulting in a more diurnal pattern. Early morning showers across the local waters and along the coast each day will spread inland through the late morning and afternoon hours in the southeast to east flow. The environment supports convection with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2600 J/kg), cooler temperatures aloft (-7 C to -8 C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 600-900 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding in some spots. Any lingering activity will diminish by late evening. Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, especially late week through early weekend, as the increased moisture across the area will result in higher cloud cover. This will limit daytime heating across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s Friday and Saturday, with low to mid 90s forecast on Sunday as a little more daytime heating is anticipated to occur. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index values of 100-105F Friday and Saturday, and 102-107F on Sunday. Monday-Wednesday... Upper level ridge axis will remain over the Florida peninsula through the period as the high pressure slowly shifts eastward from the western Atlantic on Monday into the Gulf and the Deep South by mid week. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will slowly shift southward into mid week, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore winds (east to southeast) on Monday will become south to southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, with speeds remaining light through the period as the high pressure moves overhead. These lighter winds will allow the diurnal pattern to continue, which will result in rain and storm chances being near-normal. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Monday and Tuesday, with low to medium (20-40 percent) chance on Wednesday as drier air moves in across east central Florida. Slight warming trend is forecast with temperatures anticipated to be near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 102-107F each day. However, there is a low chance of heat indices reaching 108F or higher in some spots, but confidence remains low at this time. Will continue to monitor closely. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy with lows generally in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today-Monday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place today, keeping boating conditions generally favorable. Onshore winds will be 10-15 KT with seas 1-3 feet today. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast throughout today and into tonight. The high pressure shifts northward on Friday as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Bahamas toward the Florida peninsula, eventually moving across the Florida peninsula into early weekend. As the inverted trough moves northward, onshore winds across the Atlantic waters will range from 10-20 KT areawide, which will build the seas to 3-5ft. The highest seas will be focused across the Gulf Stream. Cautionary headlines may be needed for the wind. Moisture across the area will also increase as the inverted trough moves across the area, resulting in above-normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). High pressure will reestablish across the local Atlantic waters on Saturday as the inverted trough exits the area, and remain in place through early next week. Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10 knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into early next week. Isolated showers and storms will continue to possible into early next week, although guidance is indicating drier conditions across the local Atlantic waters next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms are ongoing across east central Florida. The greatest coverage is expected to continue across the interior with TEMPOs at MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE. Lower coverage along the coast is mainly handled with VCSH/VCTS for isolated onshore moving showers this afternoon. Activity across the interior should diminish or move west of the terminals through late afternoon and into the evening. Increasing coverage of scattered onshore moving showers is forecast along the coast overnight. Prevailing winds remain out of the east, but may become variable in vicinity of storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 88 76 89 / 20 70 50 70 MCO 76 90 76 91 / 20 70 30 70 MLB 78 88 77 90 / 30 60 40 50 VRB 77 89 76 90 / 40 60 40 50 LEE 76 89 77 90 / 30 70 30 70 SFB 77 91 77 92 / 10 70 30 70 ORL 77 90 77 91 / 20 70 30 70 FPR 77 88 76 90 / 50 60 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274578 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) on Thursday become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday as clouds and low to medium (15-40%) afternoon chances of rain cool temperatures slightly. - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is likely across most of deep south Texas on Thursday for heat indices of at least 108-111 F and a heat advisory is possible for inland Kenedy and Willacy counties. - Chances of rain diminish by the beginning of next week and temperatures warm again, deteriorating heat risks back to mainly major with pockets of extreme (level 4 of 4) from the early to middle part of next week as heat indices climb back to at least 108-111 F. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A 594+ dam high pressure aloft remains persistent over the 4 Corners and southeastern US throughout most of the next 7 days, gradually building and peaking around 597+ dam Friday through Saturday. This is expected to result in another scorching hot day across the region on Thursday (ahead of any potential afternoon clouds/rain) with widespread inland air temperatures soaring into the lower/mid 100s along/west of I-69 E, while inland/coastal areas further east peak into the upper 90s as well as mid 80s along the immediate Gulf coast. As has been the recurring pattern for this ongoing weather setup, a SPS is likely to be issued overnight tonight or Thursday morning for all inland and coastal portions of deep south Texas as Thursday afternoon heat indices are expected to climb to at least 108-111 F. A heat advisory remains possible, particularly for inland portions of Kenedy and Willacy counties, for apparent temperatures of 111-113 F. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves traversing the northern and eastern periphery of the high`s ridge leads to a southwestward extension of mid/upper level troughing to the Southern Plains from the Midwest, lowering heights just a bit as well as building cloud coverage and moisture content, resulting in a daily chance of rain along the afternoon/early evening seabreeze boundary Thursday into Sunday. Guidance still remains a bit incohesive at this time, but there is a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northern Ranchlands on Thursday and the Lower/Middle RGV on Friday, where chances increase to a 20-30% on Saturday, followed by a low to medium (20-40%) chance along/east of US-281 on Sunday, highest along/east of I-69 E. Yet, again, models continue to diverge a fair amount on overall coverage and deepness of convection, with brief periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning and some gusty winds not out of the question, especially over the weekend as pockets of PWAT values could exceed 2.0 in. Regardless, this is likely to gradually lower temperatures by a few degrees Friday into Sunday, with lower 100s mainly limited to the Rio Grande Plains and the Upper RGV as well as kick heat indices down to around 105-110 F across the region, with mostly moderate heat risks and pockets of minor. Following, high pressure aloft begins to stretch across the Southern Plains to another building high pressure over the northeastern Gulf, re-enhancing subsidence aloft, diminishing cloud cover/rain chances and causing temperatures to rebound; widespread lower/mid 100s high temperatures and moderate to major heat risks return by Monday, gradually deteriorating to major, with pockets of extreme, by the middle of next week. Additional SPSs and/or heat advisories are likely as heat indices maximize around 108-111 F for most locations. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty south- southeasterly winds continue through the evening at all sites, lessening up near sunset. There is a low chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon along the seabreeze heading inland. There is high uncertainty regarding if or when these showers will pass over a TAF site. If a shower or storm happens to pass over an airfield, expect briefly gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing visibility and ceilings to MVFR levels, and possible lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds become mostly gentle to moderate on Friday and through the weekend before re-enhancing back to moderate to fresh by the beginning of next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from a low (15-20%) chance to as much as a low to medium (30-60%) chance Saturday and Sunday before gradually winding down to 10% or less by next Monday or Tuesday. Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas continue, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible from time-to- time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 95 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 76 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 80 101 78 101 / 0 20 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 88 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 93 / 0 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274577 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 136 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms Each Day Through the Weekend. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding. - Increasing Rip Current Potential Friday Through the Weekend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon into evening A pattern shift is ongoing, with onshore winds keeping coastal high temperatures below 90 today and shifting focus for storms further inland as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes west this afternoon. Over most inland areas, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening, with potential as well for a few isolated strong storms. DCAPE is not super impressive, but there is plenty of surface instability present. The primary hazard would be gusty winds around 40-50 mph, however with higher PWATs any training/slow moving storms may pose a localized flooding risk, especially over typical flood prone areas. Convection will wane off after sunset, with some lingering activity possible over north central Florida. Tonight, some patchy inland fog will be possible near locations that receive heavy rainfall today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily Thunderstorms with Locally Heavy Rainfall - High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast FL Beaches Friday An inverted trough with above average precipitable water over 2.2" sweeps over the FL peninsula Friday and extends northward across southeast GA into Saturday. Southeast steering flow 10-15 kts Friday will bring morning coastal showers and isolated storms with coverage expanding inland into the afternoon. Greater storm coverage will be across northeast FL where moisture will be increasing from the south. Inland showers and storm fade Friday evening, but coastal convection will continue through the night as the trough axis approaches. Saturday, steering flow shifts more to the south but weakens to less than 10 kts with high moisture lingering over northeast FL and also expanding across southeast GA. The deep moisture, weak storm motion, lingering low level inverted trough and diurnal instability will bring the risk of localized heavy rainfall as afternoon and evening showers and storms increase in coverage. At this time, the Weather Prediction Center has the local area highlighted under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of flash flooding rainfall on Saturday. High temperatures will trend average in the lower 90s inland the upper 80s to near 90 coast with daily peak heat index values near 100. Muggy and mild overnight lows will range in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily Thunderstorms - Heat Advisory Potential Returns Next Week High pressure builds across the FL peninsula early next week with extended models diverging mid to late week regarding how fast the ridge breaks down and yields to troughing trying to carve southward down the southeast Atlantic sea board. Extended consensus favors a local warming trend in temperatures and increasing dew pts with southwest low level flow off of the Gulf of America increasing local heat index values Monday to Wednesday to near local Heat Advisory criteria with heat index values 108-110 deg possible. Daily thunderstorm chances will trend lower than average given the upper ridge bringing increased subsidence and drier mid/upper level air Monday to Wednesday. Even given isolated storms, they could be strong given high DCAPE and capable of strong wet downbursts. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Storms have pushed west of the coastal sites, but there remains a low chance of VCTS for CRG and SGJ for the next few hours. TEMPOs remain in place for GNV and VQQ for thunderstorm impacts, with a PROB30 still present for JAX. East/southeast winds will persist during this period. Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight other than the usual mist/fog at VQQ through the early morning hours. && .MARINE... High pressure centered over Bermuda will build westward toward the United States east coast through the weekend shifting flow from east and southeast today to more east late this week and into the upcoming weekend. A trough of low pressure will move into the area on Friday, which will increase east winds up to 15 knots with seas building to near 5 feet from Friday into Saturday. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will also continue, some of which will produce strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes. Rip Currents: A wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in wind waves will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet today with a Moderate rip current risk expected. Friday into the weekend sees potential surf/breakers of 3-4 feet and corresponding increased rip current risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Prevailing southeast winds Friday with morning showers and isolated coastal storms shifting inland through the afternoon and early evening expanding in coverage especially across northeast Florida. Breezy southeast winds will impact coastal areas Friday. There will be an increase in shower and storms Saturday with a weak front lingering over the area under light southerly winds. Daytime dispersion will be generally good Friday then generally good to fair Saturday with increased rainfall across the area. Humidity will remain above critical values. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 72 94 73 / 60 20 30 10 SSI 88 78 90 78 / 20 20 30 40 JAX 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 50 30 SGJ 89 77 89 76 / 30 20 70 40 GNV 91 72 91 73 / 60 20 60 10 OCF 91 73 92 74 / 70 20 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274576 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 131 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Easterly flow sets up with a more typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. - Slightly below to near seasonal temperatures expected through the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Aloft, high pressure continues to build over southeastern U.S. from Bermuda, with an associated surface ridge already in firm control. This regime will support an easterly flow, aiding in modest moisture transport. This flow will also transition the most significant chances of rain to the afternoon, as scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop early over the east coast of Florida and track west throughout the day. On Friday, a tropical easterly wave on the southern portion of the ridge will traverse westward, bringing more widespread showers and storms to the area that afternoon/evening. This pattern will continue into the weekend, with general easterly flow persisting. High pressure will further strengthen, with the surface ridge moving southward over Central Florida. Drier air will move in as the weekend begins to wind down, suggesting slightly decreased chances of rain/storms from saturday to sunday and a more scattered coverage of convection. Into next week, the easterly flow will begin veering to southeast/south. Lingering drier air of PWAT values generally less than 2.0 inches will continue lower rain chances. Although conditions will not merit advisory conditions, they will remain warm and muggy, with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the triple digits. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions and easterly winds 10 knots or less will prevail outside of showers and storms. Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon/evening, so will cover this with VCTS and TEMPO TSRA now to around 21Z. Some MVFR CIGS/VSBY restrictions and gusty winds possible in showers and storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Quiet marine conditions expected outside of any convection. Showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon/evening as storms move over the waters from the east. Locally higher winds and seas will be likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 No fire weather concerns for the forecast period as moisture remains high. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 88 77 88 / 20 80 30 80 FMY 76 90 76 91 / 30 80 30 80 GIF 75 89 76 91 / 30 80 30 80 SRQ 74 90 75 90 / 20 70 30 70 BKV 73 89 73 90 / 20 70 20 80 SPG 77 88 77 88 / 20 70 30 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274575 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 116 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Afternoon full discussion/aviation update. No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 115 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. Early afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure at the surface and aloft anchored off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast, with upper troughing in the Plains and Midwest. It is a bit hotter than it has been, with heat indices around 100F near the coast and 90s inland. Despite the building heights, a few showers have developed across E/SE NC (south of the FA). Some of this convection could make it into NE NC and perhaps extreme SE VA later this aftn/this evening, but most areas should remain dry. The convection near the coast should dissipate by 7-8 PM at the latest. Another area of showers/tstms currently to our NW (over the mountains) will slowly move east but will likely weaken before getting to the area. Still, can`t rule out an isolated storm or two across the Piedmont this evening. There is an outside chc of a stronger storm or two across far W/NW portions of the FA, but confidence in this is very low. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend (except that temps may be a couple degrees warmer). A few locations near the VA/NC coast could see brief 105F heat indices each day, but not expecting this to be enough to warrant an advisory. Still expect to see some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 50%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only ~30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. It may be even hotter (with continued humid wx and minimal precip chances) on Mon/Tue ahead of an approaching front. There is a low chc of Heat Advisory conditions across SE portions of the FA early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. SCT cumulus will persist through 22-00z, though precip chances at the terminals are very low except for ECG, where PoPs are ~30%. A PROB30 group has been added here for SHRA, though a tstm can`t be ruled out this aftn/early evening. There is an outside chc of a shower or tstm at ORF this afternoon/early evening, but confidence (and PoPs) are very low. Additional convection is expected to impinge on our far NW counties this evening and possibly SBY tonight but confidence in this scenario panning out is very low. MVFR to IFR stratus likely remains to the SW of the terminals overnight/Fri AM as per the latest guidance. Outlook: The more typical Summer pattern continues through the the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected each day. && .MARINE... As of 115 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure is centered offshore this aftn. The wind is primarily SSW 10-15kt with 2-3ft seas, and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure is expected to prevail off the Southeast coast through the end of the week, into next weekend and early next week. The wind is expected to gradually shift to S/SSE later this aftn and evening due to seabreeze influences and increase to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters, before shifting to SW and relaxing to 10-15kt overnight into Friday morning. A similar pattern is expected Friday and Saturday with a wind shift to S/SSE during the late aftn/evening hours and an increase in speed to ~15kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt in the coastal waters. The pressure gradient relaxes Sunday into early next week with a S/SW wind diminishing to ~10kt or less, which will allow for more of a true sea-breeze with the wind shifting to SE near the coast during the aftn/early evening hours. Seas through the forecast period will primarily be 2-3ft for the coastal waters, ~3ft for the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274574 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - A Typical summertime pattern is expected over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts expected. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Mid-level trough remains over the region through Friday with meridional flow maintaining a moist air mass with PWATS near average. Shower/storm chances this afternoon/evening will focus around and east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers, but any storms that manage to fire to the west may be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts given higher DCAPE. On Friday, the pattern should allow for more shower/storm coverage west of the Flint/Apalachicola. A westward translating inverted trough rounding the Atlantic subtropical high pressure will increase PWATs into the 90th percentile. This results in greater shower/storm coverage, especially in the I-10/I-75 corridors where the seabreezes collide. Looking ahead to next week, the 0-3 km flow becomes increasingly westerly as a mid-level ridging builds aloft. This will favor below average precip chances, and in turn, increasing heat with highs in the mid-90s away from the coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today with higher coverage over the eastern areas. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Gentle to moderate breezes are expected over the next several days with significant wave heights around 1 to 2 feet. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Easterly winds through this weekend will maximize each morning. From the late morning into the evening, winds will become onshore and maximize within the seabreeze zone. By the early to middle of next week, winds will become southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Friday and Saturday with erratic and gusty winds possible near any storms, in addition to lightning. Easterly transport winds both days with the seabreeze making inland progress. Generally fair dispersions during the afternoon. Heat index values will be around 100 to 105 degrees. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The pattern will trend drier during the early to middle part of next week. Rainfall over the next week is expected to end up below average across the region. The risk for flash flooding is very low and riverine flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 93 75 93 / 20 20 10 40 Panama City 75 91 75 92 / 20 50 0 30 Dothan 73 92 74 93 / 20 20 10 20 Albany 73 93 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 Valdosta 72 95 73 95 / 30 20 0 40 Cross City 72 93 73 93 / 30 50 10 70 Apalachicola 77 88 77 88 / 60 50 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274573 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. - Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 There has been very little change to the short term forecast logic and expectations, so much of the short term discussion from the previous AFD still applies. The atmospheric setup has the region remaining between two upper level ridges...one over the Four Corners region and the other over the western Atlantic through the short term. The upper low over the southern Appalachians has opened and moved downstream leaving a weakness in the mid and upper levels in its wake. This weakness allows for Gulf moisture to stream northward. Overall weather will be very typical of what we think of as typical summertime/August conditions. Expect afternoon rain with a possibility of some strong thunderstorms somewhere in the area with POPs varying from 20%-50% across the area. Particular attention will be paid to any sea/lake breeze boundaries to kick off the afternoon convection. Temperatures will be in the 70s for overnight lows and in the low 90s for daytime highs. When combined with the relative humidity, we can expect maximum feels- like temperatures between 100-105. All these temperatures may climb by a degree or two over the next several days. Winds will remain light, generally less than about 5 mph and somewhat variable out of the south to east; an exception here is that any of the stronger storms may generate locally stronger winds. [Schlotz/Frye] && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 (Forecast/expectations have not changed since last night, so will not make any changes to the overnight long term discussion.) A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week. With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent) south of Interstate 10. Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree mark each day, with timing of convective development determining which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12 corridors in locations that don`t have storms develop until late afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions across the area and for the forecast period. Two exceptions will be where afternoon convection occurs which are handled with TEMPO/PROB30 coding and at MCB where lowered VIS may occur in the early morning. [Schlotz] && .MARINE... Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as the influence of the Bermuda high and its surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction today and then southeasterly to easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend. Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and early morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. [Schlotz/Frye] && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274572 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 121 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate southeasterlies will prevail during the afternoon hours and into Thursday night. - Periods of elevated shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week. - Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend, and will continue through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Shower and thunderstorm coverage started to enter a lull period early in the afternoon near EYW and MTH. TSRA will be able to wax and wane over the Outer Gulf waters and waters south of the Dry Tortugas, but pop up thunderstorms are less likely near the island chain. VCSH will be kept in the TAFs through the overnight hours as another period of SHRA can easily reform after sunset. TSRA chances overnight will linger, but the environment is primed to become a bit less favorable overnight. MVFR to IFR VIS and CIGs are possible near showers. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Little change is expected in the synoptic setup through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, broad lower level troughing will lumber its way westward across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean Sea and through our area. There is no reason to shift from the advertised above normal rain and thunder chances. Expect gentle to moderate easterlies to generally peak during the overnight hours and lull during the day. No trend in temperatures are anticipated with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Heading into this weekend and persisting into next week, some drying will take place through the lower levels. The lower levels will become better dominated by the Atlantic ridge to our north and mid to upper level ridging should be able to expand westward across Florida. These factors should allow shower and thunder chances to slip back towards normal. Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull as in prior days and no trend in temperatures or surface moisture is expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge balled up off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward through northern Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has allowed a relatively tighter pressure gradient to shift into our area and correspondingly moderate easterly breezes. These moderate easterlies will surge and lull through the remainder of the week and into next week, often lulling substantially during the day and peaking in the overnight hours. While cautions cannot be ruled out the entire forecast, they do not appear likely at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274571 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 111 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas. - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, with the bulk of the activity favoring inland and SW FL. A recent gust of 46 mph was observed at APF. Count rule out another isolated storm with strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph today. Another interesting note is that as of 1 PM the high at MIA has only reached 88 degrees, and with rainfall and cloud cover around SE FL, it`s currently only 83 degrees. Should they fail to reach 90, the streak of 56 consecutive days of reaching at least 90 will come to an end. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to provide for an easterly surface wind flow over South Florida through the rest of the work week. An inverted trough rounding the Atlantic high pressure will move across the Bahamas today and tonight before reaching Southeast Florida on Friday. The additional moisture and instability brought to the region by this feature will align with the maximum of diurnal heating to enhance sea breeze convection on Friday, particularly over Southwest Florida. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Thursday and Friday. Heat index values will reach the lower to mid 100s with some portions of the area exceeding 105 (mainly in SWFL). Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The aforementioned inverted trough is expected to lift northward along the Florida Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches) will linger across South Florida through much of Saturday, supporting enhanced convective coverage focused across the interior and southwest regions. As the disturbance lifts north of the area, Atlantic surface high pressure will gradually reestablish itself across the Florida Peninsula. This will maintain a moderate easterly to southeasterly flow through early next week before the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat by the middle of the week, resulting in a lighter broad easterly flow. Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement depicting a gradual drying trend beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week, with PWAT values generally decreasing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. These moisture levels are closer to seasonal norms and sufficient to support typical summertime convection. Accordingly, scattered afternoon and evening showers are expected each day through the extended period, with the greatest coverage generally favoring the interior and southwest Florida under the prevailing easterly flow. A plume of Saharan dust may approach South Florida by the middle of next week, which could suppress overall convective coverage and intensity, but confidence on its impacts remains low at this time. The return of Atlantic ridging and overall reduction in cloud cover will support a slow warming trend through the extended forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s across much of South Florida, while peak heat indices may reach 105 to 110 F each afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk will persist, especially across the east coast metro and southwest Florida. This warming trend will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days for the potential of increasing heat-related impacts across the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Outside of convection, easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts, decreasing to 5-10 kts overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly wind becoming moderate across the local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. A disturbance moving across the area late Thursday through Friday could bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity outside of the normal diurnal activity. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting this morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along the Atlantic beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 80 91 / 40 60 40 20 West Kendall 78 91 77 91 / 30 60 30 20 Opa-Locka 80 92 80 92 / 40 60 40 20 Homestead 78 91 80 91 / 40 50 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 80 90 / 50 60 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 81 90 / 50 60 40 20 Pembroke Pines 80 90 81 91 / 40 60 40 20 West Palm Beach 79 90 79 91 / 50 60 30 30 Boca Raton 79 88 80 89 / 50 60 40 20 Naples 76 92 77 92 / 20 80 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274568 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a daily basis into early next week. - Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values 101-108F each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Light SSW winds, warm temps, and dewpoints in the upper 70s to around 80 will probably produce some heat index readings around, or slightly above, 108F this afternoon. Due to the short nature, the plan for now is to forgo a head advsy...but typical summertime heat precautions should still be considered. Otherwise, we`re seeing some higher PW air, compared to the previous several days, track into the region from the east & southeast. Once we get some more daytime heating and a seabreeze/baybreeze to generate we should see some sct shra/tstms develop across parts of the region. Pretty much a rinse/repeat scenario through the weekend into early next week with the synoptic pattern remaining about the same (ridging over the Four Corners into wcntl Tx, more ridging in the Atlantic, and troffiness/weakness in between). Fluctuations on PW values should generally drive POPs and overall coverage each day. Deterministic guidance isn`t in the best of agreement in terms of the finest details in those regards...but the southern 2/3 of the CWA will probably see the overall better chances. POPs may need to be nudged upwards some Sun-Mon if ECMWF ends up being the deterministic model of choice. With more cloudiness and a prevailing SE llvl flow, we`ll probably see highs a few degrees lower than previous days. But they should trend back up toward the middle part of next week as Atlantic ridging begins expanding westward across the NE/Ncntl Gulf. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Houston terminals 19-23Z. Have placed a PROB30 in the forecast. North of KCXO there could be isolated convection but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs. Expect a repeat performance on Friday afternoon. Otherwise generally VFR conditions are expected area wide. Southeast winds may gust around 15 knots at times 20-00Z. MVFR ceilings could impact KCLL terminal 13-16Z Friday. 35 && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Typical summertime conditions expected through the weekend into early next week. South and southeast winds, generally in the 10-15 knot range and 2-4 foot seas are expected. Look for some scattered shower and thunderstorm development each day...with the better chances in the early morning through early afternoon hours. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 75 95 / 20 20 0 20 Houston (IAH) 79 95 78 94 / 20 30 0 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 20 20 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274567 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 PM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1230 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - A Typical summertime pattern is expected over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts expected. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Mid-level trough remains over the region through Friday with meridional flow maintaining a moist air mass with PWATS near average. Shower/storm chances this afternoon/evening will focus around and east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers, but any storms that manage to fire to the west may be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts given higher DCAPE. On Friday, the pattern should allow for more shower/storm coverage west of the Flint/Apalachicola. A westward translating inverted trough rounding the Atlantic subtropical high pressure will increase PWATs into the 90th percentile. This results in greater shower/storm coverage, especially in the I-10/I-75 corridors where the seabreezes collide. Looking ahead to next week, the 0-3 km flow becomes increasingly westerly as a mid-level ridging builds aloft. This will favor below average precip chances, and in turn, increasing heat with highs in the mid-90s away from the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Convection will develop this afternoon with better chances on station at TLH/VLD/ABY. In addition, the east coast seabreeze appears to arrive in the evening with possible convection so TSRA timing was extended into the mid/late evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Gentle to moderate breezes are expected over the next several days with significant wave heights around 1 to 2 feet. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Easterly winds through this weekend will maximize each morning. From the late morning into the evening, winds will become onshore and maximize within the seabreeze zone. By the early to middle of next week, winds will become southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Friday and Saturday with erratic and gusty winds possible near any storms, in addition to lightning. Easterly transport winds both days with the seabreeze making inland progress. Generally fair dispersions during the afternoon. Heat index values will be around 100 to 105 degrees. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The pattern will trend drier during the early to middle part of next week. Rainfall over the next week is expected to end up below average across the region. The risk for flash flooding is very low and riverine flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 73 93 75 / 50 20 20 10 Panama City 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 50 0 Dothan 93 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 Albany 93 73 93 74 / 50 30 20 10 Valdosta 94 72 95 73 / 60 30 20 0 Cross City 93 72 93 73 / 60 30 50 10 Apalachicola 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274566 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1016 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate southeasterlies will prevail during the morning hours and into Thursday night. - Periods of elevated shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week. - Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend, and will continue through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Wet, pop up thunderstorm weather continues across this afternoon across the Florida Keys. Thunderstorms were able to develop near Key West with pulses across the southern Florida Straits. The morning 12Z KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT over two inches with a dry adiabatic surface layer. Near surface winds were almost unidirectional. Sufficient CAPE is present to maintain sporadic thunderstorms throughout the afternoon, and satellite observations do not show a source of drier air nearby. Meanwhile, a broad cyclonic pattern northeast of the Bahamas continues to provide weak dynamical support for showers across the region. expect the current pattern to last through sunset. Deep tropical moisture remains over the Keys while divergence aloft is supported by weak cyclonic flow in the upper atmosphere and lack of inhibition near the surface. The 60 percent rainfall chances appears apt for the afternoon. Keep an eye on the radar for any nearby thunderstorms! && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge balled up off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward through northern Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has allowed a relatively tighter pressure gradient to shift into our area and correspondingly moderate easterly breezes. These moderate easterlies will surge and lull through the remainder of the week and into next week, often lulling substantially during the day and peaking in the overnight hours. While cautions cannot be ruled out the entire forecast, they do not appear likely at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Fast moving scattered showers and thunderstorms will wax and wane near both EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon. While there may be occasional periods of inactivity, TSRA can form in under 30 minutes near one of the islands. VCSH will be maintained in the TAFs due to the rapidly developing showers. Expect east to southeast near surface winds near 10 knots away from showers, with gusty conditions and sub VFR VIS and CIGs possible in VCSH or TSRA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Little change is expected in the synoptic setup through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, broad lower level troughing will lumber its way westward across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean Sea and through our area. There is no reason to shift from the advertised above normal rain and thunder chances. Expect gentle to moderate easterlies to generally peak during the overnight hours and lull during the day. No trend in temperatures are anticipated with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Heading into this weekend and persisting into next week, some drying will take place through the lower levels. The lower levels will become better dominated by the Atlantic ridge to our north and mid to upper level ridging should be able to expand westward across Florida. These factors should allow shower and thunder chances to slip back towards normal. Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull as in prior days and no trend in temperatures or surface moisture is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274565 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 958 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Typical summertime pattern with afternoon showers/thunderstorms inland with morning showers/storms over the Gulf and along the immediate coast. Temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s, with morning lows in the 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The previous forecast is on track and no major updates were necessary. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 We can expect a typical summertime pattern over the region for the next several days. A sub-tropical high (Bermuda High) will be extending westward over us, bringing in easterly flow through Friday. Rain chances will be elevated today for the I-75 and I-10 corridors as the easterly winds will increase the PWATs values over the Big Bend region. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall which could lead to a few runoff concerns. PoPs range from 40-60 percent, whereas areas to the west will have much lower chances (<30%) as the moisture will not traverse that far west. Rain chances slightly improve for our Central Time Zone communities, south of I- 10, on Friday to around 30-50% with the added influence of the sea breeze. The typical afternoon shower/thunderstorm pattern with temperatures in the low to mid 90s can be expected through mid next week as the Bermuda High will continue to influence our weather. The high will gradually sink southward by the end of the weekend, shifting our winds more southeasterly. This, however, does not change the outlook as we will continue to have warm temperatures in the low to mid-90s and overnight lows in the 70s. There will be daily chances of precipitation with PoPs ranging around 30-50%. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Convection will develop this afternoon with better chances on station at TLH/VLD/ABY. In addition, the east coast seabreeze appears to arrive in the evening with possible convection so TSRA timing was extended into the mid/late evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A subtropical high near Bermuda will build over the next few days, bringing us gentle easterly breezes heading into the weekend. The High will shift south late this weekend, turning our winds more southeasterly. For the next couple of days, heading into this weekend, there will be daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Erratic wind gusts, lightning, and possible waterspouts will be the main concerns through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Fair dispersions across most districts, with poor dispersions along the immediate Forgotten Coast today. Southeasterly transport winds at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly for Friday. Mixing heights today will reach above 5000 ft over the AL and FL Wiregrass region, with the rest of our districts ranging between 3500-5000 feet. More widespread 4000-5000 ft mixing heights is forecast for Friday afternoon, with the potential for high dispersions along the I-75 corridor. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today with the better chances along the I-10/I-75 corridors this afternoon. Gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the next week. The only concern will be short-lived nuisance flooding beneath the cores of heavier storms. There are no flash or riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 73 93 75 / 50 20 20 10 Panama City 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 50 0 Dothan 93 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 Albany 93 73 93 74 / 50 30 20 10 Valdosta 94 72 95 73 / 60 30 20 0 Cross City 93 72 93 73 / 60 30 50 10 Apalachicola 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274564 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 831 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains on track. Heat Advisories remain in effect from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday for most of southern New England (excluding the eastern slopes, Cape, and Islands). && .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity climb to Advisory level today and lingers through Friday, possibly into the weekend. - Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms remain a daily threat, but are most likely Saturday, with a lower chance on Sunday. Unsettled weather may return early next week, as well as continuing high humidity. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity climb to Advisory level today and lingers through Friday, possibly into the weekend. A Bermuda high begins to build in across the western Atlantic Ocean and southerly flow continues today. Temperatures and dew points have already begun to rise: T of 73 (up from 69 just before midnight) and Td of 71 (up from 67). They`ll only continue to surge throughout the day and again on Friday, with temperatures likely topping out near 90 and oppressive dew points near 75, leading to "feels like" temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s... possibly even near 100 at times. Greatest risk of heat indicies reaching triple digits remains in the CT and Merrimack River Valleys where localized downslope winds could help boost temperatures. Some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of heat elsewhere due to the chance for increasing cloud cover from any thunderstorms that develop today and Friday afternoons. Expecting poor overnight relief heading into Friday with nighttime temperatures hovering 71-73 as well as dewpoints struggling to drop to 70... tonight`s heat indicies are likely to hover 77-80. The warm overnight temperatures will be dangerous for those without adequate access to cooling, especially in urban areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday, and future shifts may need to extend the Advisory into Saturday if the heat persists. KEY MESSAGE 2...Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms remain a daily threat, but are most likely Saturday, with a lower chance on Sunday. Unsettled weather may return early next week, as well as continuing high humidity. A few weak, upper level disturbances passing through New England combining with the high heat/humidity and just enough instability will likely be enough to pop a few diurnal showers/thunderstorms each day through the weekend, with greatest chances Saturday. While the potential for storms to be severe is on the lower end, any thunderstorms that do pop have the potential to produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours as PWATs will likely be around 2.0". Model soundings also indicate the mid-level steering flow could be rather week, leading to slow moving storms or even training. Given the amount of rain southern New England has seen over the last week or so, any heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding. Expecting a few more shortwaves to move through the upper-level flow as well as a trailing cold front early next week, bringing additional chances for showers to southern New England Monday night into Tuesday. The FROPA could bring a small amount of relief from the heat for the start of the next work week, but humidity levels likely will remain elevated through mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z Update: Today...Moderate Confidence (cigs, TSRA chances) MVFR/IFR CIGS this morning slowly improving to VFR between 14-16Z for most terminals. Slower trend for Cape/Islands with imrovements closer to 17-19Z. SW winds 8-12 kts, gusting up to 20 kts this afternoon for Cape/Islands. Low probability for a sea breeze at BOS early afternoon. Low chances for an isolated afternoon SHRA or TSRA across western areas of southern New England. Have opted to include a PROB30 for TSRA at KBDL after 20z today as they have a higher probability of a storm developing nearby. Tonight into Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR with potential for MVFR/IFR developing after 06Z and after 00Z for ACK. Higher risk is south of the Mass Pike, but there is potential for it to nudge as north as BOS. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances return Friday, but uncertain how far east impacts could reach at this time. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Should more likely stay MVFR this AM with low chance for brief IFR cigs. Improving to VFR 14-16Z. Winds SSW at 8-10 kts. Low probability for a sea breeze trying to push in by 17Z if winds are light enough. Potential for IFR ceilings to nudge in after 06Z Fri. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Low chance remains for an isolated afternoon SHRA or TSRA across western areas of southern New England, with PROB30 for TSRA after 20z today. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday... High Confidence. A few periods of gusty SW winds near 20 kts are possible today across the southern waters. Winds calm Friday as high pressure builds over the region. Waters and winds will be below SCA for the foreseeable future. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ003>007-010>021-026. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274563 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 646 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values 100-107F each day. - An isolated late day shower can`t be ruled out along the seabreeze in the afternoons. - Slightly better rain chances expected Thursday into early next week for the eastern and southern parts of the region as some deeper moisture flows back inland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Ridging centered over the Southwest CONUS/Four Corners will keep uneventful weather over the region through the better half of next week at least. Heights and 850mb temperatures are still expected to drop into the weekend, resulting slightly lower heat stress and surface temperatures. Reduced subsidence and rising PWs should bring better rain chances during this period as well, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible along the seabreeze/baybreeze each afternoon. Highs remain in the 90s each day with heat indices reaching the triple digits in the afternoon. Some patchy fog will be possible during the early morning hours. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A mix of MVFR to IFR ceilings continues to develop and spread northward, impacting mainly KCLL, and briefly KSGR. These conditions are expected to persist through 13-14Z Thursday, before gradually improving to VFR later this morning. A few showers and storms are possible near the terminals, but due to low confidence in occurrence and coverage, only PROB30 groups were included. Winds will remain generally south-southeasterly with occasional afternoon gusts, especially at coastal terminals. Looking ahead to tonight,patchy fog and MVFR ceilings will be possible again, primarily near KCLL. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Onshore winds 10-15 knots and seas of 2-4 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Rain chances increase slightly through early next week. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will be greatest during the late night through early afternoon hours for the Gulf. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 95 78 / 20 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 / 20 10 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274562 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 741 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 728 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas. - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to provide for an easterly surface wind flow over South Florida through the rest of the work week. An inverted trough rounding the Atlantic high pressure will move across the Bahamas today and tonight before reaching Southeast Florida on Friday. The additional moisture and instability brought to the region by this feature will align with the maximum of diurnal heating to enhance sea breeze convection on Friday, particularly over Southwest Florida. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Thursday and Friday. Heat index values will reach the lower to mid 100s with some portions of the area exceeding 105 (mainly in SWFL). Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The aforementioned inverted trough is expected to lift northward along the Florida Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches) will linger across South Florida through much of Saturday, supporting enhanced convective coverage focused across the interior and southwest regions. As the disturbance lifts north of the area, Atlantic surface high pressure will gradually reestablish itself across the Florida Peninsula. This will maintain a moderate easterly to southeasterly flow through early next week before the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat by the middle of the week, resulting in a lighter broad easterly flow. Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement depicting a gradual drying trend beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week, with PWAT values generally decreasing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. These moisture levels are closer to seasonal norms and sufficient to support typical summertime convection. Accordingly, scattered afternoon and evening showers are expected each day through the extended period, with the greatest coverage generally favoring the interior and southwest Florida under the prevailing easterly flow. A plume of Saharan dust may approach South Florida by the middle of next week, which could suppress overall convective coverage and intensity, but confidence on its impacts remains low at this time. The return of Atlantic ridging and overall reduction in cloud cover will support a slow warming trend through the extended forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s across much of South Florida, while peak heat indices may reach 105 to 110 F each afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk will persist, especially across the east coast metro and southwest Florida. This warming trend will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days for the potential of increasing heat-related impacts across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds will increase out of the east later today across all terminals. Scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop in the vicinity of the sites, but development is expected to move inland through the day, and confidence regarding impacts remains low. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly wind becoming moderate across the local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. A disturbance moving across the area late Thursday through Friday could bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity outside of the normal diurnal activity. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting this morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along the Atlantic beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 91 80 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 90 78 91 77 / 60 30 60 30 Opa-Locka 91 80 92 80 / 50 40 60 40 Homestead 90 78 91 80 / 60 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 89 80 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 90 81 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 80 90 81 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 79 / 60 50 60 30 Boca Raton 88 79 88 80 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 76 92 77 / 80 20 80 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274561 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 646 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 646 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week. - Heat indices will trend upward, reaching around 100-107 degrees by early next week. - A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The forecast remains on track. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Starting off tonight with a broad overview looking at the mid- levels, we remain sandwiched between two dominant ridge centers, one anomalously strong, 594dm ridge anchored across the SW US and another offshore the Mid-atlantic states. This slow/steady transition into a broader weakness regime over the northern Gulf has started to weaken the mid-level subsidence inversion steadily, obtaining a bit greater LCL-surface inversion instability to support a few isolated showers/storms going following sfc heating, more particularly aided by sea/baybreeze collisions. Generally speaking, expecting no major difference today starting off the day with a few showers forced by the northward drifting sea/baybreeze from 15-18Z, then greater areal coverage in isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon when the coast clears out. Dewpoints will drop from afternoon PBL mixing ahead of the boundary reaching the low 70`s/upper 60`s inland. Looking beyond into Friday and the upcoming weekend, quite frankly the pattern remains much of the same with little notable changes with the same diurnal isolated to scattered shower windows starting near the coast, ending inland. We do continue to see a steady uptick in surface dewpoints that does climb max heat indices into the 105-107 range in spots, but still far from anything concerning/impactful at this time. The aforementioned upper-air pattern does transition slightly with the ridge center pressing north across the four-corners region, and the mid- atlantic coast ridge dipping south to just offshore coastal FL. What this could, in part do is allow east to west tropical impulses to ride west into the Gulf and find the weakness towards our neck of the woods. This will in turn support an uptick in daily rain/storm chances and coverage by the additional dynamic support at play in conjunction with a deep, moist southerly Gulf flow. Can`t rule out an uptick in coverage, namely Sunday through Tuesday. Looking at the extended/late end of the forecast into the middle of next week, took a closer look at cluster analysis to identify ensemble similarities and trends in regards to a suggested strengthening ridge over the northern Gulf, that 1) could reduce daily rain chances and 2) could re-crank the heat back up a notch. CMC, EMS and GEFS similarities are rather confident thus far, so something to watch as we near closer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. A 20-40% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exists will occur across our interior areas this afternoon into early evening. This activity could create brief drops to MVFR or lower visibilities. Very patchy fog and/or low ceilings with localized MVFR conditions may occur inland late tonight. Added PROB30 groups for all TAF sites late tonight starting at 07/09z due to convection possibly moving onshore. Light southeasterly to southerly winds at around 5-10 knots will resume today with some gusts to 15 knots possible over southern areas with the sea breeze. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Light southerly winds today shift to southeasterly to easterly through the weekend before becoming generally southerly on Monday. Wind speeds should remain around 5 to 10 knots with some gusts up to 15 knots Friday and Saturday. Wave heights stay 1 to 2 feet through the beginning of next week. Friday through mid next week, showers and storms are possible in the morning then shifts inland for the afternoon hours. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 73 92 73 / 30 10 20 0 Pensacola 89 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 30 10 Evergreen 92 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Waynesboro 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 10 20 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 Crestview 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274558 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 732 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 and the Aviation section was updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the coast with a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concentrating around the Charleston Metro Area during the morning commute. - 2) A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the coast with a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concentrating around the Charleston Metro Area during the morning commute. Convection has been slow to form this morning and what has developed has struggled despite favorable instability over the Atlantic. Near term guidance still suggests convection could spread into parts of the Charleston Tri-County over the coming hours; however, given trends, the forecast was updated to lower pops into the chance category. The synoptic pattern remains favorable for another round of nocturnal showers/tstms to develop over the Atlantic over the next few hours and stream inland along parts of the coast. Similar to Wednesday morning, the mean steering flow looks to favor the bulk of the convection impacting parts of the Charleston Tri-County, including Downtown Charleston. GOES-E Total Precipitable Water data show PWATs are above 2" and the latest RAP output suggest PWATs will remain in the 2-2.25" range along the coastal corridor. While these values are ~0.25" lower than 24 hours, there is still plenty of deep moisture and sufficient instability (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg) nudging inland from off the Atlantic to allow any convection to be highly efficient rain producers capable of producing a quick 1-2" in a very short period of time. HREF neighborhood probabilities for >1"/3hrs are highest across Charleston County, running 50-60% and around 10% for >3"/3hrs. While flash flooding seems unlikely with the bulk of the heaviest rainfall falling within 2 hours either side of low tide (807 AM in Charleston Harbor), minor flooding of urban areas around the Charleston Metro Area as well as low- lying and poor drainage areas in more rural spots can not be ruled out. Of course, Downtown Charleston will be monitored closely as any sustained period of heavy rainfall that becomes aligned across the peninsula could result in some significant issues, even at low tide. Convection should slowly wane by late morning, with a risk for scattered showers/tstms refocusing along/west of the I-95 corridor ahead of the sea breeze. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s with heat indices peaking 100-105. Similar to the past several nights, convection is expected to redevelop over the Atlantic late tonight as low-level convergence shifts back along the west wall of the Gulf Stream after midnight. Activity does not look as extensive as the past few nights, but some degree of isolated to perhaps scattered showers/tstms will make a run for the coast during the early morning hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. The pattern will be dominated by deep high pressure over the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. This will support daily scattered convection through the weekend, with the sea breeze and any remnant outflow boundaries serving as the primary focus for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect deep moisture into the region. Moderate instability looks to develop each afternoon, with SBCAPE values rising to 2500-3000 J/kg. PWAT values near or slightly above 2 inches nearly each day will support efficient rainfall rates, with some storms capable of dropping a quick 1-2 inches of rain in a short period. In addition, slow storm motions of around 10 kt, combined with training or repeated rounds of convection, could increase the potential for isolated instances of minor flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Friday will be the exception, as somewhat drier air filters in noted by pockets of PWATs between 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This should limit convection coverage as well as the minor flooding threat. Lastly, with little shear in the environment, storms will remain pulse-like. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger to marginally severe storms could produce damaging wind gusts. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06/12z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI: Convection has been slow to develop this morning. Near term guidance is still insistent showers/tstms will form soon and spread into parts of the Charleston Metro. Opted to pull back on the TSRA forecast slightly given current trends. PROB30 for TSRA was highlighted at KJZI 12-15z with VCSH at KCHS. Last minute radar trends at press time may necessitate a change. Convection should consolidate west of the Charleston terminals by early afternoon and remain there. Overnight, guidance suggests another round of showers/tstms will develop offshore which could spread into KCHS/KJZI. Given trends this morning, no mention of SHRA/TSRA will be included for the 12z TAF cycle. KSAV: Morning convection should largely remain east of the terminal through daybreak. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to start to focus near I-95 by late morning then consolidate farther inland later in the afternoon. PROB30 for TSRA was included 16-19z to account for activity developing near the terminal by late morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms this week and into this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Another round of showers/tstms is expected to impact the waters this morning. These storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rainfall reducing vsbys to 1 NM or less. Outside of convection, south to southeast winds 10 kt or less will persist into tonight with seas 1-3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant synoptic feature through the weekend. This will generate a typical summertime wind field with increased winds along the land/sea interface each afternoon associated with the sea breeze. Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Waterspouts: Forecast sounding output and elevated non- supercell tornado parameters values over the nearshore and offshore waters look to support an elevated risk for waterspouts again this morning. Several were observed yesterday. A Marine Weather Statement to alert mariners to this possibility will be issued. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274557 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 730 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms Each Day Through the Weekend. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Increasing Rip Current Potential Later This Week Through the Weekend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon into evening The mid / upper level trough that has been affecting the area for a few days will be west of the forecast area at 12z Today, located from eastern TN southward to the western FL panhandle. It will continue to lift to the northwest today. Mean steering flow through about 500 mb will be south to southeast about 10-15 kt and PWATs will be just above 2 inches, but noting some drier air will filter in per the GFS and SREF guidance with PWATs lowering to about the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range by 09z Friday. With the Atlantic sfc ridge essentially lifting into southern GA this morning, the developing background southeast flow will enable the east coast sea breeze to move in steadily inland during the day, with winds become east and southeast behind the sea breeze. Don`t see the west coast sea breeze making it to our forecast area. With a moist and unstable airmass in place with plentiful low level moisture, we expect some isolated convection to be present over the marine waters where there will be some weak low level convergence and MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. After collaboration with CHS, there may be a risk of funnel clouds or a waterspout over the marine waters through the mid morning hours with favorable low level CAPE. Convergence along the east coast sea breeze and daytime heating should result in fairly quick development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 8 AM to noon time, generally pushing westward from over the coastal counties and moving toward the Highway 301 corridor as well. During the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected with MLCAPE rising to about 2400-2800 J/kg range. Over some of the inland areas, numerous showers and storms are possible as indicated in some of the latest guidance. Main storm threats are heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. DCAPE values are not excessive, and look to stay under 700 J/kg so winds of about 40-50 mph seem reasonable for possible downburst winds. Soundings and HREF show potential for localized 2-3 inch hourly rainfall, which if there were some brief training of cells, could dump 4+ inches of rainfall causing localized flooding. With plentiful moisture, clouds and precip will hold highs to the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms expected in the evening, most common well west of Highway 301 and close to the I-75 corridor. Near and after midnight, only isolated shower or a storm possible, which, after midnight would be more favorable along the coastal counties given the prevailing deep southeast flow. Lows tonight expected in the lower 70s inland and mid to upper 70s toward the coast where a gentle southeast sfc wind flow will continue. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for isolated strong thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards Continuing onshore flow through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure extends westward from the Atlantic. As higher moisture will be in place over NE FL at the start of the period, coastal showers will be possible during the morning hours on Friday over coastal NE FL. As the day progresses, storms will begin to develop with the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, with most convective activity focused along the sea breezes mergers between US-301 and the I-75 corridor across NE FL. On Saturday, the onshore flow persists with the high pressure remaining in place as an inverted trough just off the Atlantic coast, allowing for coastal showers again during the morning hours. Higher moisture levels (PWATs in the 2+" range) combined with diurnal heating and the Atlantic sea breeze will drive development of numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours across much of the area. Gusty downbursts with winds in the 40 to 60 mph possible with any storms, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy downpours at times. Daytime temperatures will rise to the lower 90s area-wide aside from coastal locations which will be a bit cooler in the upper 80s thanks to the onshore flow. Overnight Lows will drop to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards The high pressure situated over the eastern CONUS will begin to sink southward towards central FL late Sunday into Monday. This will have the southeasterly flow steadily become more southerly, where both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes will be able to push inland during the afternoon hours. The coverage of showers and storms will likely be limited due to drier air under the ridge of high pressure, but isolated storms during the afternoon hours will still be possible as the sea breezes merge over inland locations. Daytime highs near average this weekend will increase to above average into early next week due to less storm coverage. Lows will be near normal this weekend and trend a bit above normal Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... A few showers are expected in the morning hours, from about 13z-16z, along the coastal TAFs, with activity gradually pushing inland through the afternoon. Anticipate showers and storms near GNV about 2-3 hours later than coastal TAFs. Restrictions in showers and storms are likely with MVFR and gusty winds. Estimated that highest chance of IFR showers/storms would be for VQQ and GNV this afternoon. Light to calm winds will become east and southeast at about 7 to 12 knots. && .MARINE... High pressure centered over Bermuda will build westward toward the United States east coast through the weekend shifting flow from east and southeast today to more east late this week and into the upcoming weekend. A trough of low pressure will move into the area on Friday, which will increase east winds up to 15 knots with seas building to near 5 feet from Friday into Saturday. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will also continue, some of which will produce strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes. Rip Currents: A wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in wind waves will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet later today with a Moderate rip current risk expected. Friday into the weekend sees potential surf/breakers of 3-4 feet and corresponding increased rip current risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers for inland locations as southeasterly winds will be present once again as high pressure builds northeast of the area. Friday, more easterly winds will prevail with coastal showers moving onto the Northeast FL coast before midday with numerous thunderstorms inland in the afternoon. Isolated strong thunderstorm potential will remain each afternoon with storm outflows causing sudden and erratic wind shifts, locally stronger winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning in and near thunderstorms. Overall light transport winds will keep dispersions in the fair range this afternoon, but breezier winds on Friday will allow for good dispersions to develop across inland locations away from the coast. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 72 94 73 / 50 20 30 10 SSI 89 78 90 78 / 20 10 30 40 JAX 91 74 91 74 / 30 10 50 30 SGJ 89 77 89 76 / 30 10 70 40 GNV 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 60 10 OCF 91 73 92 74 / 60 20 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274556 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 627 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) on Thursday become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday as clouds and low to medium (15-40%) afternoon chances of rain cool temperatures slightly. - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is likely across most of deep south Texas on Thursday for heat indices of at least 108-111 F and a heat advisory is possible for inland Kenedy and Willacy counties. - Chances of rain diminish by the beginning of next week and temperatures warm again, deteriorating heat risks back to mainly major with pockets of extreme (level 4 of 4) from the early to middle part of next week as heat indices climb back to at least 108-111 F. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A 594+ dam high pressure aloft remains persistent over the 4 Corners and southeastern US throughout most of the next 7 days, gradually building and peaking around 597+ dam Friday through Saturday. This is expected to result in another scorching hot day across the region on Thursday (ahead of any potential afternoon clouds/rain) with widespread inland air temperatures soaring into the lower/mid 100s along/west of I-69 E, while inland/coastal areas further east peak into the upper 90s as well as mid 80s along the immediate Gulf coast. As has been the recurring pattern for this ongoing weather setup, a SPS is likely to be issued overnight tonight or Thursday morning for all inland and coastal portions of deep south Texas as Thursday afternoon heat indices are expected to climb to at least 108-111 F. A heat advisory remains possible, particularly for inland portions of Kenedy and Willacy counties, for apparent temperatures of 111-113 F. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves traversing the northern and eastern periphery of the high`s ridge leads to a southwestward extension of mid/upper level troughing to the Southern Plains from the Midwest, lowering heights just a bit as well as building cloud coverage and moisture content, resulting in a daily chance of rain along the afternoon/early evening seabreeze boundary Thursday into Sunday. Guidance still remains a bit incohesive at this time, but there is a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northern Ranchlands on Thursday and the Lower/Middle RGV on Friday, where chances increase to a 20-30% on Saturday, followed by a low to medium (20-40%) chance along/east of US-281 on Sunday, highest along/east of I-69 E. Yet, again, models continue to diverge a fair amount on overall coverage and deepness of convection, with brief periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning and some gusty winds not out of the question, especially over the weekend as pockets of PWAT values could exceed 2.0 in. Regardless, this is likely to gradually lower temperatures by a few degrees Friday into Sunday, with lower 100s mainly limited to the Rio Grande Plains and the Upper RGV as well as kick heat indices down to around 105-110 F across the region, with mostly moderate heat risks and pockets of minor. Following, high pressure aloft begins to stretch across the Southern Plains to another building high pressure over the northeastern Gulf, re-enhancing subsidence aloft, diminishing cloud cover/rain chances and causing temperatures to rebound; widespread lower/mid 100s high temperatures and moderate to major heat risks return by Monday, gradually deteriorating to major, with pockets of extreme, by the middle of next week. Additional SPSs and/or heat advisories are likely as heat indices maximize around 108-111 F for most locations. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Light southeast winds with a few passing low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Southeast winds are expected to increase 15 to 20 kts by mid to late morning with some gusts around 25 kts in the afternoon. Winds are forecast to slowly decrease later this evening. A brief period or two of MVFR ceilings could impact MFE through around 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds become mostly gentle to moderate on Friday and through the weekend before re-enhancing back to moderate to fresh by the beginning of next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from a low (15-20%) chance to as much as a low to medium (30-60%) chance Saturday and Sunday before gradually winding down to 10% or less by next Monday or Tuesday. Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas continue, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible from time-to- time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 97 80 96 79 / 10 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 100 76 97 75 / 10 0 20 0 MCALLEN 103 80 101 78 / 10 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 101 76 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 88 80 / 10 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 94 78 / 10 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274555 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 613 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week, with peak heat indices 105 to 110, and high to extreme WBGT values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Mid-level ridging will continue to be the main driver of our forecast for the upcoming period. While a Four-Corners ridge remains generally stationary, the Bermuda high will gradually stretch eastward across Florida. A weak wave looks to ride below the southern edge of the Bermuda high toward the weekend and makes its way toward the Texas coast. Moisture appears limited - so no substantial rain chances expected. Will maintain some 10-20% rain chances with the seabreeze daily through the end of the week. For the weekend could see slightly higher (20-25%) PoPs around the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures remain near seasonal normals through the period with highs between 100 and 105 west and in the mid and upper 90s east. Heat index values will top out primarily between 105 and 110. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 70s. RH values do fall to near low levels west, however fuel moisture are normal and should limit elevated fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Aside from a brief period of MVFR CIG/VIS this morning, all terminals return to VFR later this morning and remaining so through most of the TAF period, with KALI given a TEMPO for a brief MVFR VIS after 08Z. Winds will be SE`ly at 15-20 kts for all terminals after 18Z and lighter winds overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore flow can be expected through the forecast period, occasionally fresh winds can be observed along the nearshore waters and bays in the afternoon. Seas will generally range from 2-3 feet through the period. Daily rain chances will be under 20% through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Min RHs will generally drop into the 25-35% range each afternoon through the weekend in the western Brush country and Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs combined with ERCs in the 55-75th percentile range will support localized elevated fire weather conditions over this region each day, however fuel moisture are generally near normal, thus any elevated conditions should be limited. Winds will gradually increase out of the E-SE in the 12 to 18 kt range during the afternoons. Daily rain chances will generally be 10% or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 78 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 96 76 95 75 / 20 0 20 0 Laredo 103 77 102 77 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 98 75 97 74 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 91 80 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 76 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 81 88 81 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274554 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 654 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - The typical afternoon convective pattern today before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents. - Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida. - Near normal temperatures into early weekend, with a slight warming trend forecast into early next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US coast will remain in place through the period as a trough moves eastward across the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure just off the eastern US in the western Atlantic will move ever so slightly northward into tonight. Locally winds will become more easterly areawide, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. This dominate onshore flow will continue to promote isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast through the morning and early afternoon hours. Can not rule out an isolated lightning storm or two moving onshore through that time. Coverage of showers and lightning storms will increase and transition to across the interior in the afternoon as the diffuse east coast sea breeze moves inland. Moisture across the area will remain high, with forecast PW values of 1.9-2.1" across the area, which supports convection into this afternoon. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms this afternoon. Due to the persistent east to southeast flow aloft, convection today will move west to northwest around 10-15 mph. The environment is conducive for storms this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2200-3000 J/kg), Strong buoyancy (lifted index greater than -4), cooler temperatures aloft (-8C to -9C at 500 mb), and ample downdraft potential (DCAPE 500-800 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, the threat for minor, localized flooding will continue. Any lingering activity will diminish late this evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Atlantic waters overnight, with some of this activity potentially moving onshore along the coast. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-105F this afternoon. Conditions will continue to be muggy into tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Friday-Sunday... An upper level high pressure in the western Atlantic on Friday will steadily shift southward and build across the Florida peninsula by late weekend. At the surface, an inverted trough over the Bahamas on Friday will lift northward across the Florida peninsula through early weekend. Locally, this inverted trough will bring an increase in moisture across the area, with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2" areawide. This will result in above normal rain chances through early weekend. There is a high (70-80 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Friday, and a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance on Saturday. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return closer to normal on Sunday (PoP 30-60 percent) as winds become lighter locally as the ridge axis moves over the Florida peninsula, resulting in a more diurnal pattern. Early morning showers across the local waters and along the coast each day will spread inland through the late morning and afternoon hours in the southeast to east flow. The environment supports convection with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2600 J/kg), cooler temperatures aloft (-7 C to -8 C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 600-900 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding in some spots. Any lingering activity will diminish by late evening. Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, especially late week through early weekend, as the increased moisture across the area will result in higher cloud cover. This will limit daytime heating across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s Friday and Saturday, with low to mid 90s forecast on Sunday as a little more daytime heating is anticipated to occur. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index values of 100-105F Friday and Saturday, and 102-107F on Sunday. Monday-Wednesday... Upper level ridge axis will remain over the Florida peninsula through the period as the high pressure slowly shifts eastward from the western Atlantic on Monday into the Gulf and the Deep South by mid week. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will slowly shift southward into mid week, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore winds (east to southeast) on Monday will become south to southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, with speeds remaining light through the period as the high pressure moves overhead. These lighter winds will allow the diurnal pattern to continue, which will result in rain and storm chances being near-normal. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Monday and Tuesday, with low to medium (20-40 percent) chance on Wednesday as drier air moves in across east central Florida. Slight warming trend is forecast with temperatures anticipated to be near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 102-107F each day. However, there is a low chance of heat indices reaching 108F or higher in some spots, but confidence remains low at this time. Will continue to monitor closely. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy with lows generally in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today-Monday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place today, keeping boating conditions generally favorable. Onshore winds will be 10-15 KT with seas 1-3 feet today. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast throughout today and into tonight. The high pressure shifts northward on Friday as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Bahamas toward the Florida peninsula, eventually moving across the Florida peninsula into early weekend. As the inverted trough moves northward, onshore winds across the Atlantic waters will range from 10-20 KT areawide, which will build the seas to 3-5ft. The highest seas will be focused across the Gulf Stream. Cautionary headlines may be needed for the wind. Moisture across the area will also increase as the inverted trough moves across the area, resulting in above-normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). High pressure will reestablish across the local Atlantic waters on Saturday as the inverted trough exits the area, and remain in place through early next week. Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10 knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into early next week. Isolated showers and storms will continue to possible into early next week, although guidance is indicating drier conditions across the local Atlantic waters next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 654 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Isolated onshore moving showers and storms will occur along the coast early this morning. Onshore winds will then lead to a faster development of the east coast sea breeze, with scattered showers and storms developing earlier along the coast this morning and shifting westward across the interior this afternoon. VFR conditions are mostly expected, with shower/storm activity leading to tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. No changes to VCTS timing and TEMPO/PROB30 TSRA windows, starting as early as as 14-17Z at KVRB-KSUA, shifting further in time to 17/18-20/21Z across the interior. Easterly winds increasing to around 10-13 knots through this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible along the coast from KMLB south. Most showers and storms are forecast to shift west of the area by 00Z, but isolated/scattered showers and a few storms will be able to again push onshore along the Treasure Coast this evening, and then along much of the east central FL coast overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 88 76 / 40 20 70 20 MCO 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 88 78 88 77 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 89 77 89 76 / 50 30 60 20 LEE 90 76 90 77 / 60 20 70 10 SFB 91 77 91 77 / 50 20 60 10 ORL 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 88 77 88 76 / 50 30 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274553 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 641 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message 1 and the Aviation section was updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the coast with a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concentrating around the Charleston Metro Area during the morning commute. - 2) A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the coast with a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concentrating around the Charleston Metro Area during the morning commute. Convection has been slow to form this morning and what has developed has struggled despite favorable instability over the Atlantic. Near term guidance still suggests convection could spread into parts of the Charleston Tri-County over the coming hours. Opted not to change pops at this time given the consistency noted in the guidance, but it is possible the forecast could end up being too wet and aggressive. The synoptic pattern remains favorable for another round of nocturnal showers/tstms to develop over the Atlantic over the next few hours and stream inland along parts of the coast. Similar to Wednesday morning, the mean steering flow looks to favor the bulk of the convection impacting parts of the Charleston Tri-County, including Downtown Charleston. GOES-E Total Precipitable Water data show PWATs are above 2" and the latest RAP output suggest PWATs will remain in the 2-2.25" range along the coastal corridor. While these values are ~0.25" lower than 24 hours, there is still plenty of deep moisture and sufficient instability (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg) nudging inland from off the Atlantic to allow any convection to be highly efficient rain producers capable of producing a quick 1-2" in a very short period of time. HREF neighborhood probabilities for >1"/3hrs are highest across Charleston County, running 50-60% and around 10% for >3"/3hrs. While flash flooding seems unlikely with the bulk of the heaviest rainfall falling within 2 hours either side of low tide (807 AM in Charleston Harbor), minor flooding of urban areas around the Charleston Metro Area as well as low- lying and poor drainage areas in more rural spots can not be ruled out. Of course, Downtown Charleston will be monitored closely as any sustained period of heavy rainfall that becomes aligned across the peninsula could result in some significant issues, even at low tide. Convection should slowly wane by late morning, with a risk for scattered showers/tstms refocusing along/west of the I-95 corridor ahead of the sea breeze. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s with heat indices peaking 100-105. Similar to the past several nights, convection is expected to redevelop over the Atlantic late tonight as low-level convergence shifts back along the west wall of the Gulf Stream after midnight. Activity does not look as extensive as the past few nights, but some degree of isolated to perhaps scattered showers/tstms will make a run for the coast during the early morning hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. The pattern will be dominated by deep high pressure over the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. This will support daily scattered convection through the weekend, with the sea breeze and any remnant outflow boundaries serving as the primary focus for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect deep moisture into the region. Moderate instability looks to develop each afternoon, with SBCAPE values rising to 2500-3000 J/kg. PWAT values near or slightly above 2 inches nearly each day will support efficient rainfall rates, with some storms capable of dropping a quick 1-2 inches of rain in a short period. In addition, slow storm motions of around 10 kt, combined with training or repeated rounds of convection, could increase the potential for isolated instances of minor flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Friday will be the exception, as somewhat drier air filters in noted by pockets of PWATs between 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This should limit convection coverage as well as the minor flooding threat. Lastly, with little shear in the environment, storms will remain pulse-like. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger to marginally severe storms could produce damaging wind gusts. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06/12z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI: Convection has been slow to develop this morning. Near term guidance is still insistent showers/tstms will form soon and spread into parts of the Charleston Metro. Opted to pull back on the TSRA forecast slightly given current trends. PROB30 for TSRA was highlighted at KJZI 12-15z with VCSH at KCHS. Last minute radar trends at press time may necessitate a change. Convection should consolidate west of the Charleston terminals by early afternoon and remain there. Overnight, guidance suggests another round of showers/tstms will develop offshore which could spread into KCHS/KJZI. Given trends this morning, no mention of SHRA/TSRA will be included for the 12z TAF cycle. KSAV: Morning convection should largely remain east of the terminal through daybreak. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to start to focus near I-95 by late morning then consolidate farther inland later in the afternoon. PROB30 for TSRA was included 16-19z to account for activity developing near the terminal by late morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms this week and into this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Another round of showers/tstms is expected to impact the waters this morning. These storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rainfall reducing vsbys to 1 NM or less. Outside of convection, south to southeast winds 10 kt or less will persist into tonight with seas 1-3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant synoptic feature through the weekend. This will generate a typical summertime wind field with increased winds along the land/sea interface each afternoon associated with the sea breeze. Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Waterspouts: Forecast sounding output and elevated non- supercell tornado parameters values over the nearshore and offshore waters look to support an elevated risk for waterspouts again this morning. Several were observed yesterday. A Marine Weather Statement to alert mariners to this possibility will be issued. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274552 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 537 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. - Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The region will remain between two upper level ridges...one over the Four Corners region and the other over the western Atlantic through the short term. The upper low over the southern Appalachians has opened and moved downstream, but again this weakness in the mid and upper levels remain in its wake. At the surface winds will generally be light and southerly. This has helped bring the humidity values up once again, which is why diurnally driven convection will continue to gradually increase through the short term period as well. Surface temperatures will still be around average for this time of year and with added humidity the "feels like" temperatures will continue to heat up, but still look to remain a degree or two below hazardous thresholds across the CWFA. The cooler locations will be right along the coast with the onshore flow with locations further inland heating up into the middle 90s each afternoon. Going into the weekend surface winds tend to shift a bit more easterly as high pressure tries to build into the Southeast from the east. As for POPs the best course of action through the short term is to apply seasonal afternoon POPs. Not everyone will get rain, but we will not exactly be dry either. Very much the epitome of summer here on the northern Gulf Coast. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week. With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent) south of Interstate 10. Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree mark each day, with timing of convective development determining which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12 corridors in locations that don`t have storms develop until late afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Outside of convection later this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions expected. That said, MCB may see some brief reduced visibilities right around sunrise. As for convection, expect brief VIS/CIG reductions at least in the heaviest activity. Convection should be cleared by around sunset with lighter southerly winds. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction today and then southeasterly to easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend. Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274551 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 647 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes through the period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A return to more typical summertime pattern through much of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through Saturday, then becomes suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic with more of a zonal pattern developing next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period with limited shear and forcing. A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fog and stratus has expanded to cover much of the inland rtes early this morning bringing areas of LIFR with a few locations as low as VLIFR. Conditions will gradually improve through the morning hours with VFR conditions expected to return by late morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms then expected to develop this afternoon across inland rtes as the sea breeze pushes inland bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions. A similar set up with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for fog and stratus again late Thursday night. Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. && .MARINE... The Bermuda high will remain off the coast into early next week bringing predominantly S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft. Somewhat stronger winds possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through the weekend as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High and off the NC coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274549 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 621 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 616 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Typical summertime pattern with afternoon showers/thunderstorms inland with morning showers/storms over the Gulf and along the immediate coast. Temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s, with morning lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 We can expect a typical summertime pattern over the region for the next several days. A sub-tropical high (Bermuda High) will be extending westward over us, bringing in easterly flow through Friday. Rain chances will be elevated today for the I-75 and I-10 corridors as the easterly winds will increase the PWATs values over the Big Bend region. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall which could lead to a few runoff concerns. PoPs range from 40-60 percent, whereas areas to the west will have much lower chances (<30%) as the moisture will not traverse that far west. Rain chances slightly improve for our Central Time Zone communities, south of I- 10, on Friday to around 30-50% with the added influence of the sea breeze. The typical afternoon shower/thunderstorm pattern with temperatures in the low to mid 90s can be expected through mid next week as the Bermuda High will continue to influence our weather. The high will gradually sink southward by the end of the weekend, shifting our winds more southeasterly. This, however, does not change the outlook as we will continue to have warm temperatures in the low to mid-90s and overnight lows in the 70s. There will be daily chances of precipitation with PoPs ranging around 30-50%. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Convection will develop this afternoon with better chances on station at TLH/VLD/ABY. In addition, the east coast seabreeze appears to arrive in the evening with possible convection so TSRA timing was extended into the mid/late evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A subtropical high near Bermuda will build over the next few days, bringing us gentle easterly breezes heading into the weekend. The High will shift south late this weekend, turning our winds more southeasterly. For the next couple of days, heading into this weekend, there will be daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Erratic wind gusts, lightning, and possible waterspouts will be the main concerns through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Fair dispersions across most districts, with poor dispersions along the immediate Forgotten Coast today. Southeasterly transport winds at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly for Friday. Mixing heights today will reach above 5000 ft over the AL and FL Wiregrass region, with the rest of our districts ranging between 3500-5000 feet. More widespread 4000-5000 ft mixing heights is forecast for Friday afternoon, with the potential for high dispersions along the I-75 corridor. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today with the better chances along the I-10/I-75 corridors this afternoon. Gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the next week. The only concern will be short-lived nuisance flooding beneath the cores of heavier storms. There are no flash or riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 73 93 75 / 50 20 20 10 Panama City 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 50 0 Dothan 93 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 Albany 93 73 93 74 / 50 30 20 10 Valdosta 94 72 95 73 / 60 30 20 0 Cross City 93 72 93 73 / 60 30 50 10 Apalachicola 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274550 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 618 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated, though no major changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days. 2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days. Similar to the last couple nights, another round of showers and isolated storms is expected to develop this morning and affect coastal areas esp. in SC. After morning cloud cover thins out, a separate area of showers and storms is expected to develop inland from the coast during the afternoon as the air heats up. Very heavy rain remains the primary concern as precipitable water values around 2-2.2" continue to stream across the area. Although southerly low- to mid-level flow of 10-20 kts should keep most of the showers and storms moving, if an outflow boundary happens to push out of a storm towards the south, isolated flash flooding may occur due to heavy rain persisting over the same area. From Friday onward, the upper disturbance that has remained in place over the last few days should be a shadow of its former self with a remnant weakness in the height field between the large upper high centered near the Four Corners and another near Bermuda. This weakness in the height field on the periphery of the offshore high will result in a more typical summertime pattern with isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms from Friday through Sunday. With that said, considerable dry air is depicted in forecast soundings on Friday and Saturday before another plume of moisture lifts northward on Sunday. Thus, expect activity to be more spotty and short-lived on Friday and Saturday with somewhat greater coverage on Sunday. Although the greater moisture remains in place into next week, the ridge is expected to build westward, introducing some subsidence into the picture, likely keeping coverage in the typical summertime isolated to widely scattered realm. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index may potentially reach 105F in some areas every day starting Sunday or Monday. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR to at times IFR conditions have indeed developed inland and used prevailing for an hour or two to address. Some activity may develop along the coast this morning or drift in from offshore but at least at this point doesn`t seem as bullish as advertised. Outside of this a standard summer day is shaping up and continued to advertise PROB 30 areas for later convection. Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week with winds averaging out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east. Low to moderate chances of showers and storms remain in place every day. A persistent 7-8 second SE swell will be the primary contributor to the wave spectrum. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274548 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 554 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Full discussion update. No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast coast through the weekend. The upper ridge offshore will build westward today with modest height rises keeping a lid on widespread convection. 00z models and CAM guidance show the potential for relatively greater shower and storm chances across northeastern NC early this afternoon but PoPs remain below 40%. Another area of showers and storms will likely form west and northwest of the local area along the higher Blue Ridge terrain by mid to late afternoon. These storms may just be able to sneak into the far NW and N portions of the area by the evening but most of the region will be dry. With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on today with upper 90s-low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 40%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 30-40%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 550 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Some IFR CIGs are noted to the SW of RIC and west of ECG. A brief period of IFR is possible at ORF over the next hour or two but conditions should rapidly improve after 12z. SW winds are generally 5-10 kt this morning, closer to 10 kt with gusts 15 kt late morning through the afternoon. Few to scattered CU are expected as mixing gets underway through the afternoon. Convective coverage today is expected to be very sparse but the relative highest chances are focused at ECG and maybe as far north as ORF this afternoon. Additional convection is expected to impinge on our far NW counties this evening and possibly SBY tonight but confidence in this scenario panning out is very low. Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend, outside of local thunderstorm influences. An expansive Bermuda high is the main feature influencing winds this morning, and marine observation sites are measuring SW of 10-15 kts, with a few gusts of 15-20 kts. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft, and seas in the nearshore coastal waters are 2-3 ft. The same general synoptic set up will linger through the weekend, though a few weak disturbances will move through to our north which could occasionally tighten the gradient further through Saturday. Sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt are forecast to develop each morning (up to 15-20 kts in the coastal waters), turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze circulations each afternoon. As the aforementioned high drifts closer to the coast, the gradient will relax and winds of ~10 kts or less are forecast by early next week. Waves in the Bay will remain between 1-2 ft, with seas in the coastal waters ranging between 2-4 ft. Daily afternoon and evening isolated shower and storm chances persist into the weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through at least Saturday, with a low risk for the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274547 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 420 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains on track. Heat Advisories remain in effect from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday for most of southern New England (excluding the eastern slopes, Cape, and Islands). && .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity climb to Advisory level today and lingers through Friday, possibly into the weekend. - Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms remain a daily threat, but are most likely Saturday, with a lower chance on Sunday. Unsettled weather may return early next week, as well as continuing high humidity. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity climb to Advisory level today and lingers through Friday, possibly into the weekend. A Bermuda high begins to build in across the western Atlantic Ocean and southerly flow continues today. Temperatures and dew points have already begun to rise: T of 73 (up from 69 just before midnight) and Td of 71 (up from 67). They`ll only continue to surge throughout the day and again on Friday, with temperatures likely topping out near 90 and oppressive dew points near 75, leading to "feels like" temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s... possibly even near 100 at times. Greatest risk of heat indicies reaching triple digits remains in the CT and Merrimack River Valleys where localized downslope winds could help boost temperatures. Some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of heat elsewhere due to the chance for increasing cloud cover from any thunderstorms that develop today and Friday afternoons. Expecting poor overnight relief heading into Friday with nighttime temperatures hovering 71-73 as well as dewpoints struggling to drop to 70... tonight`s heat indicies are likely to hover 77-80. The warm overnight temperatures will be dangerous for those without adequate access to cooling, especially in urban areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday, and future shifts may need to extend the Advisory into Saturday if the heat persists. KEY MESSAGE 2...Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms remain a daily threat, but are most likely Saturday, with a lower chance on Sunday. Unsettled weather may return early next week, as well as continuing high humidity. A few weak, upper level disturbances passing through New England combining with the high heat/humidity and just enough instability will likely be enough to pop a few diurnal showers/thunderstorms each day through the weekend, with greatest chances Saturday. While the potential for storms to be severe is on the lower end, any thunderstorms that do pop have the potential to produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours as PWATs will likely be around 2.0". Model soundings also indicate the mid-level steering flow could be rather week, leading to slow moving storms or even training. Given the amount of rain southern New England has seen over the last week or so, any heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding. Expecting a few more shortwaves to move through the upper-level flow as well as a trailing cold front early next week, bringing additional chances for showers to southern New England Monday night into Tuesday. The FROPA could bring a small amount of relief from the heat for the start of the next work week, but humidity levels likely will remain elevated through mid-week. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z Update: Today...High confidence. MVFR/IFR CIGS this morning slowly improves to VFR by 12-14z wtih SW to WSW winds 8-12 kts, gusting up to 20 kts this afternoon, especially across eastern southern terminals. Low chances for an isolated afternoon SHRA or TSRA across western areas of southern New England. Have opted to include a PROB30 for TSRA at KBDL after 20z today. Tonight into Friday...Moderate confidence. VFR conditions drop to MVFR south of the Mass Pike, IFR across the Cape/Island terminals. Gustier winds 15-20 kts remain a possibility overnight and into Friday for the Cape and Islands as well. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances return Friday, but uncertain how far east impacts could reach at this time. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. IFR CIGS linger through 12-14z and gusty southwest winds are expected this afternoon. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. IFR CIGS/MVFR Visby`s improve to VFR 12-14z then drop to MVFR again tonight. Low chance remains for an isolated afternoon SHRA or TSRA across western areas of southern New England, with PROB30 for TSRA after 20z today. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday... High Confidence. A few periods of gusty SW winds near 20 kts are possible today across the southern waters. Winds calm Friday as high pressure builds over the region. Waters and winds will be below SCA for the foreseeable future. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ003>007-010>021-026. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274546 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week. - Heat indices will trend upward, reaching around 100-107 degrees by early next week. - A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The rip current risk probability guidance has been trending downward over the past two cycles. We now expect a low risk for all area beaches through early next week, but will keep the moderate risk for Saturday and monitor if the risk continues to trend downward on that day. Surf heights will remain generally 1-2 feet through Monday. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Starting off tonight with a broad overview looking at the mid- levels, we remain sandwiched between two dominant ridge centers, one anomalously strong, 594dm ridge anchored across the SW US and another offshore the Mid-atlantic states. This slow/steady transition into a broader weakness regime over the northern Gulf has started to weaken the mid-level subsidence inversion steadily, obtaining a bit greater LCL-surface inversion instability to support a few isolated showers/storms going following sfc heating, more particularly aided by sea/baybreeze collisions. Generally speaking, expecting no major difference today starting off the day with a few showers forced by the northward drifting sea/baybreeze from 15-18Z, then greater areal coverage in isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon when the coast clears out. Dewpoints will drop from afternoon PBL mixing ahead of the boundary reaching the low 70`s/upper 60`s inland. Looking beyond into Friday and the upcoming weekend, quite frankly the pattern remains much of the same with little notable changes with the same diurnal isolated to scattered shower windows starting near the coast, ending inland. We do continue to see a steady uptick in surface dewpoints that does climb max heat indices into the 105-107 range in spots, but still far from anything concerning/impactful at this time. The aforementioned upper-air pattern does transition slightly with the ridge center pressing north across the four-corners region, and the mid- atlantic coast ridge dipping south to just offshore coastal FL. What this could, in part do is allow east to west tropical impulses to ride west into the Gulf and find the weakness towards our neck of the woods. This will in turn support an uptick in daily rain/storm chances and coverage by the additional dynamic support at play in conjunction with a deep, moist southerly Gulf flow. Can`t rule out an uptick in coverage, namely Sunday through Tuesday. Looking at the extended/late end of the forecast into the middle of next week, took a closer look at cluster analysis to identify ensemble similarities and trends in regards to a suggested strengthening ridge over the northern Gulf, that 1) could reduce daily rain chances and 2) could re-crank the heat back up a notch. CMC, EMS and GEFS similarities are rather confident thus far, so something to watch as we near closer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Some patchy fog and/or low ceilings with localized MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out late tonight away from the coast. A 20-40% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exists near the coast this morning, spreading inland through the afternoon. This activity could create brief drops to MVFR or lower visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly to southerly on Thursday at around 5-10 knots. Some gusts to 15-20 knots are possible over southern areas with the sea breeze. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Light southerly winds today shift to southeasterly to easterly through the weekend before becoming generally southerly on Monday. Wind speeds should remain around 5 to 10 knots with some gusts up to 15 knots Friday and Saturday. Wave heights stay 1 to 2 feet through the beginning of next week. Friday through mid next week, showers and storms are possible in the morning then shifts inland for the afternoon hours. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 73 92 73 / 30 10 20 0 Pensacola 89 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 30 10 Evergreen 92 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Waynesboro 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 10 20 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 Crestview 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274545 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 348 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes through the period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A return to more typical summertime pattern through much of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will be centered off the coast through Saturday, then becomes suppressed late in the weekend as shortwave energy pushes across the mid- Atlantic with more of a zonal pattern developing next week with a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the area. Precip chances will be near climo each day with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon, then dissipating with loss of heating during the evening. The severe threat appears minimal through the period with limited shear and forcing. A gradual warming trend will continue through the period as well with highs in the lower 90s inland through the weekend, then warming in to the mid 90s next week. Temps generally in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The probabilities for Major Heat Risk increase to around 60-80% Monday through Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clear skies and light winds has brought good radiational cooling conditions overnight and beginning to see patchy fog and stratus develop across inland rtes bringing IFR/LIFR conditions. Fog/stratus is expected to expand through daybreak, then will lift and dissipate by mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms then expected to develop this afternoon across inland rtes as the sea breeze pushes inland bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions. A similar set up with mainly clear skies and light winds will bring a chance for fog and stratus again late Thursday night. Of note, AMD NOT SKED was appended to the KEWN TAF due to an ongoing communications issue that is impacting dissemination of the observation information. However, TAFs will continue to be issued while the issue is troubleshooted. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Primarily VFR conditions and light winds are forecast into early next week as high pressure builds into the area. Given ample low level moisture there is a low end chance for patchy ground fog to develop each morning. && .MARINE... The Bermuda high will remain off the coast into early next week bringing predominantly S to SW winds around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft. Somewhat stronger winds possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through the weekend as temps warm inland bringing a tightening of gradients between the thermal trough inland and the offshore high. Gusts may approach SCA conditions across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras at times. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Stream are expected to dissipate late this afternoon with quieter conditions into Friday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into early next week as a trough of low pressure rotates around the Bermuda High and off the NC coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274544 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 359 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate southeasterlies will prevail during the overnight hours, and into Thursday morning. - Periods of elevated shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week. - Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend, and will continue through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A ~1025 mb high centered off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward across North Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has brought in gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Last evenings sounding indicated well above normal precipitable water at 2.15 inches, substantial CAPE, and uncapped. Adding to this, the stacked anticyclone of the Carolina coast has left nebulous to weakly cyclonic flow aloft in our region. All this together has resulted in rounds of showers and thunderstorms occasionally sweeping westward across the Keys and its waters. Little change is expected in the synoptic setup through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, broad lower level troughing will lumber its way westward across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean Sea and through our area. There is no reason to shift from the advertised above normal rain and thunder chances. Expect gentle to moderate easterlies to generally peak during the overnight hours and lull during the day. No trend in temperatures are anticipated with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Heading into this weekend and persisting into next week, some drying will take place through the lower levels. The lower levels will become better dominated by the Atlantic ridge to our north and mid to upper level ridging should be able to expand westward across Florida. These factors should allow shower and thunder chances to slip back towards normal. Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull as in prior days and no trend in temperatures or surface moisture is expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 An Atlantic ridge balled up off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward through northern Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has allowed a relatively tighter pressure gradient to shift into our area and correspondingly moderate easterly breezes. These moderate easterlies will surge and lull through the remainder of the week and into next week, often lulling substantially during the day and peaking in the overnight hours. While cautions cannot be ruled out the entire forecast, they do not appear likely at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A wet weather remains across the Keys and will likely result in episodes of sub VFR conditions and potentially thunderstorms and gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with gentle to moderate easterlies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274543 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 257 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 - Hot and hazardous conditions will remain the primary weather concern through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Heat Advisory in effect through 5 PM AST this afternoon across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and additional heat products will likely be needed in the coming days as above- normal temperatures and dangerous heat indices persist. - Passing showers will continue this afternoon, mainly across the interior and western to northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. - Limited fire weather conditions today. Lower relative humidity, drying fuels, and breezy east to east- southeast winds could maintain the potential for rapid wildfire spread, particularly across areas with dry vegetation. Residents should avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with activities that could produce sparks. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 Overnight conditions remained tranquil across the local islands. Light and variable winds combined with mostly clear skies favored efficient radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid-70s across the coastal and urban areas, while the mountains cooled into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A surface high over the western Atlantic will gradually strengthen through the short-term period, maintaining an east-southeasterly wind flow today before shifting to the east-northeast on Friday. At the same time, a drier air mass will continue filtering across the region, with precipitable water values falling to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches and mid-level relative humidity dropping below 30 to 40 percent. This combination will promote a more stable pattern through Saturday, limiting convection to the typical diurnal cycle. Expect a few passing showers across the windward sectors during the overnight and morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon showers over the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico, where daytime heating and local effects will provide sufficient lift. With a stronger steering flow, showers should remain frequent, keeping rainfall accumulations localized and the flood threat limited. The primary weather concern through Saturday will be the heat. The east-southeasterly flow today will continue to favor the warmest temperatures across the northern, western, and urban sections of Puerto Rico before a more easterly to east-northeasterly wind develops on Friday. Afternoon highs will generally reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico, while the higher elevations remain in the lower 80s. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, highs will range from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Despite the drier air aloft, enough low-level moisture will persist to produce hazardous heat index values across coastal and urban areas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory remains in effect today, and additional heat products may be needed through Friday if these conditions continue. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 A progressive weather pattern is expected as tropical waves, easterly wind surges, and a TUTT low move through or near the eastern Caribbean. The first wave will approach Sunday and move across the region through Monday. Although the deepest moisture should remain mainly over the Caribbean waters, Sunday and Monday currently appear to have the greatest potential for increased shower and thunderstorm coverage. Afternoon convection should be most noticeable over interior and western Puerto Rico, with an elevated lightning risk where thunderstorms develop. A brief period of lower moisture is possible late Monday into early Tuesday, followed by a strong easterly wind surge. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail through much of the period, with Tuesday potentially becoming the windiest day. Moisture may increase again from Wednesday into Thursday as another tropical wave approaches, but confidence in its timing and associated rainfall remains low. Wednesday could become the warmest day if cloud and shower coverage remains limited, with elevated to significant heat risks continuing through the period. Despite occasional increases in moisture and convection, widespread or prolonged rainfall is not anticipated. Therefore, significant relief from the ongoing severe drought and water-supply concerns is unlikely. Rainfall and lightning impacts will depend greatly on the timing of each feature and how much tropical moisture reaches the local islands. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions across all TAF sites. VCSH will develop over west PR and TJBQ from 06/17Z trough 06/23Z. Winds will remain from the E around 10 to 15 kts and occasional higher gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain a moderate easterly wind flow across the regional waters through today, with generally favorable marine conditions prevailing. Seas will remain between 3 and 5 feet, occasionally up to 6 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters and local passages by late tonight as the pressure gradient gradually tightens. East to east-southeasterly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots through the end of the week and into the weekend, leading to choppier seas, especially across the Atlantic waters, Anegada Passage, and Caribbean passages. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing over western Puerto Rico may briefly produce locally higher winds, rough seas, and frequent lightning. In addition, moderate concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to return late Friday and persist through the weekend, occasionally reducing visibility across the local waters. Overall, small craft operators should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as marine conditions could deteriorate. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents is expected across all northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico due to a slight increase in surface winds across the local waters. For the rest of the area, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, the risk will remain low. For tonight, the risk will increase for Culebra and St. Croix. In terms of beach hazard, heat remains the primary beach hazard through the remainder of the week. Some shower activity across western sections would result in a lightning threat across western sections. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM AST Thu Aug 6 2026 Critically dry fuels continue across portions of the local islands, particularly across southern Puerto Rico, St. Croix, and other fire- prone areas of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Although isolated showers and localized thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, mainly across interior and western Puerto Rico, recent rainfall has been limited over the southern coastal plains, where fuels remain receptive to fire starts. Winds will remain relatively light today, keeping the fire weather threat limited through the remainder of the afternoon. A drier and more stable weather pattern will become established beginning today and persist into the weekend as moisture decreases and easterly winds strengthen. Lower relative humidity, increasing sunshine, and breezy conditions, combined with critically dry fuels, will elevate the potential for rapid wildfire growth and spread, particularly across southern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents and visitors are encouraged to avoid outdoor burning and use caution with activities that could produce sparks, as fire weather conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable in the coming days. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274542 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - The typical afternoon convective pattern today before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents. - Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida. - Near normal temperatures into early weekend, with a slight warming trend forecast into early next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure off the eastern US coast will remain in place through the period as a trough moves eastward across the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure just off the eastern US in the western Atlantic will move ever so slightly northward into tonight. Locally winds will become more easterly areawide, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. This dominate onshore flow will continue to promote isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast through the morning and early afternoon hours. Can not rule out an isolated lightning storm or two moving onshore through that time. Coverage of showers and lightning storms will increase and transition to across the interior in the afternoon as the diffuse east coast sea breeze moves inland. Moisture across the area will remain high, with forecast PW values of 1.9-2.1" across the area, which supports convection into this afternoon. There is a medium to high (40-70 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms this afternoon. Due to the persistent east to southeast flow aloft, convection today will move west to northwest around 10-15 mph. The environment is conducive for storms this afternoon, with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2200-3000 J/kg), Strong buoyancy (lifted index greater than -4), cooler temperatures aloft (-8C to -9C at 500 mb), and ample downdraft potential (DCAPE 500-800 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms, the threat for minor, localized flooding will continue. Any lingering activity will diminish late this evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible across the Atlantic waters overnight, with some of this activity potentially moving onshore along the coast. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-105F this afternoon. Conditions will continue to be muggy into tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Friday-Sunday... An upper level high pressure in the western Atlantic on Friday will steadily shift southward and build across the Florida peninsula by late weekend. At the surface, an inverted trough over the Bahamas on Friday will lift northward across the Florida peninsula through early weekend. Locally, this inverted trough will bring an increase in moisture across the area, with forecast PW values of 2.0-2.2" areawide. This will result in above normal rain chances through early weekend. There is a high (70-80 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Friday, and a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance on Saturday. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return closer to normal on Sunday (PoP 30-60 percent) as winds become lighter locally as the ridge axis moves over the Florida peninsula, resulting in a more diurnal pattern. Early morning showers across the local waters and along the coast each day will spread inland through the late morning and afternoon hours in the southeast to east flow. The environment supports convection with forecast soundings showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2600 J/kg), cooler temperatures aloft (-7 C to -8 C at 500 mb), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 600-900 J/kg). Because of this, the main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding in some spots. Any lingering activity will diminish by late evening. Seasonable temperatures are forecast each day, especially late week through early weekend, as the increased moisture across the area will result in higher cloud cover. This will limit daytime heating across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s Friday and Saturday, with low to mid 90s forecast on Sunday as a little more daytime heating is anticipated to occur. These temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index values of 100-105F Friday and Saturday, and 102-107F on Sunday. Monday-Wednesday... Upper level ridge axis will remain over the Florida peninsula through the period as the high pressure slowly shifts eastward from the western Atlantic on Monday into the Gulf and the Deep South by mid week. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will slowly shift southward into mid week, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore winds (east to southeast) on Monday will become south to southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, with speeds remaining light through the period as the high pressure moves overhead. These lighter winds will allow the diurnal pattern to continue, which will result in rain and storm chances being near-normal. There is a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms on Monday and Tuesday, with low to medium (20-40 percent) chance on Wednesday as drier air moves in across east central Florida. Slight warming trend is forecast with temperatures anticipated to be near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 102-107F each day. However, there is a low chance of heat indices reaching 108F or higher in some spots, but confidence remains low at this time. Will continue to monitor closely. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy with lows generally in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Today-Monday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will remain in place today, keeping boating conditions generally favorable. Onshore winds will be 10-15 KT with seas 1-3 feet today. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast throughout today and into tonight. The high pressure shifts northward on Friday as an inverted trough lifts northward from the Bahamas toward the Florida peninsula, eventually moving across the Florida peninsula into early weekend. As the inverted trough moves northward, onshore winds across the Atlantic waters will range from 10-20 KT areawide, which will build the seas to 3-5ft. The highest seas will be focused across the Gulf Stream. Cautionary headlines may be needed for the wind. Moisture across the area will also increase as the inverted trough moves across the area, resulting in above-normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). High pressure will reestablish across the local Atlantic waters on Saturday as the inverted trough exits the area, and remain in place through early next week. Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10 knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into early next week. Isolated showers and storms will continue to possible into early next week, although guidance is indicating drier conditions across the local Atlantic waters next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions generally expected outside of showers and storms. Onshore flow persists through today, with easterly winds increasing to around 10-13 knots through this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible along the coast from KMLB south. Onshore moving isolated SHRA/TSRA possible along the coast, especially from KVRB-KSUA through early this morning. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will then develop early along the coast and increase in coverage across the interior as this activity shifts westward through the late morning/afternoon. Have 3 hour TEMPO/PROB30 groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for most sites, starting as early as as 14-17Z at KVRB-KSUA, shifting further in time to 17/18-20/21Z across the interior. Majority of convection should shift west of the area by 00Z, but scattered showers and isolated onshore moving storms may redevelop south of KMLB into Thursday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 88 76 / 40 20 70 20 MCO 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 88 78 88 77 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 89 77 89 76 / 50 30 60 20 LEE 90 76 90 77 / 60 20 70 10 SFB 91 77 91 77 / 50 20 60 10 ORL 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 88 77 88 76 / 50 30 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274541 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Full discussion update. No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast coast through the weekend. The upper ridge offshore will build westward today with modest height rises keeping a lid on widespread convection. 00z models and CAM guidance show the potential for relatively greater shower and storm chances across northeastern NC early this afternoon but PoPs remain below 40%. Another area of showers and storms will likely form west and northwest of the local area along the higher Blue Ridge terrain by mid to late afternoon. These storms may just be able to sneak into the far NW and N portions of the area by the evening but most of the region will be dry. With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on today with upper 90s-low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 40%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 30-40%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SW winds generally 5-10 kt overnight and closer to 10 kt with gusts 15 kt today. Few to scattered CU are possible late morning through the afternoon. Convective coverage today is expected to be very sparse but the relative highest chances are focused on ECG and ORF this afternoon. Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend, outside of local thunderstorm influences. An expansive Bermuda high is the main feature influencing winds this morning, and marine observation sites are measuring SW of 10-15 kts, with a few gusts of 15-20 kts. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft, and seas in the nearshore coastal waters are 2-3 ft. The same general synoptic set up will linger through the weekend, though a few weak disturbances will move through to our north which could occasionally tighten the gradient further through Saturday. Sub-SCA S-SW winds ~10-15 kt are forecast to develop each morning (up to 15-20 kts in the coastal waters), turning S-SE nearshore with seabreeze circulations each afternoon. As the aforementioned high drifts closer to the coast, the gradient will relax and winds of ~10 kts or less are forecast by early next week. Waves in the Bay will remain between 1-2 ft, with seas in the coastal waters ranging between 2-4 ft. Daily afternoon and evening isolated shower and storm chances persist into the weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through at least Saturday, with a low risk for the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274539 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 242 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms Each Day Through the Weekend. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Increasing Rip Current Potential Later This Week Through the Weekend && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon into evening The mid / upper level trough that has been affecting the area for a few days will be west of the forecast area at 12z Today, located from eastern TN southward to the western FL panhandle. It will continue to lift to the northwest today. Mean steering flow through about 500 mb will be south to southeast about 10-15 kt and PWATs will be just above 2 inches, but noting some drier air will filter in per the GFS and SREF guidance with PWATs lowering to about the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range by 09z Friday. With the Atlantic sfc ridge essentially lifting into southern GA this morning, the developing background southeast flow will enable the east coast sea breeze to move in steadily inland during the day, with winds become east and southeast behind the sea breeze. Don`t see the west coast sea breeze making it to our forecast area. With a moist and unstable airmass in place with plentiful low level moisture, we expect some isolated convection to be present over the marine waters where there will be some weak low level convergence and MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. After collaboration with CHS, there may be a risk of funnel clouds or a waterspout over the marine waters through the mid morning hours with favorable low level CAPE. Convergence along the east coast sea breeze and daytime heating should result in fairly quick development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 8 AM to noon time, generally pushing westward from over the coastal counties and moving toward the Highway 301 corridor as well. During the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected with MLCAPE rising to about 2400-2800 J/kg range. Over some of the inland areas, numerous showers and storms are possible as indicated in some of the latest guidance. Main storm threats are heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. DCAPE values are not excessive, and look to stay under 700 J/kg so winds of about 40-50 mph seem reasonable for possible downburst winds. Soundings and HREF show potential for localized 2-3 inch hourly rainfall, which if there were some brief training of cells, could dump 4+ inches of rainfall causing localized flooding. With plentiful moisture, clouds and precip will hold highs to the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms expected in the evening, most common well west of Highway 301 and close to the I-75 corridor. Near and after midnight, only isolated shower or a storm possible, which, after midnight would be more favorable along the coastal counties given the prevailing deep southeast flow. Lows tonight expected in the lower 70s inland and mid to upper 70s toward the coast where a gentle southeast sfc wind flow will continue. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for isolated strong thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards Continuing onshore flow through the end of the week and into the weekend as high pressure extends westward from the Atlantic. As higher moisture will be in place over NE FL at the start of the period, coastal showers will be possible during the morning hours on Friday over coastal NE FL. As the day progresses, storms will begin to develop with the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, with most convective activity focused along the sea breezes mergers between US-301 and the I-75 corridor across NE FL. On Saturday, the onshore flow persists with the high pressure remaining in place as an inverted trough just off the Atlantic coast, allowing for coastal showers again during the morning hours. Higher moisture levels (PWATs in the 2+" range) combined with diurnal heating and the Atlantic sea breeze will drive development of numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours across much of the area. Gusty downbursts with winds in the 40 to 60 mph possible with any storms, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy downpours at times. Daytime temperatures will rise to the lower 90s area-wide aside from coastal locations which will be a bit cooler in the upper 80s thanks to the onshore flow. Overnight Lows will drop to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards The high pressure situated over the eastern CONUS will begin to sink southward towards central FL late Sunday into Monday. This will have the southeasterly flow steadily become more southerly, where both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes will be able to push inland during the afternoon hours. The coverage of showers and storms will likely be limited due to drier air under the ridge of high pressure, but isolated storms during the afternoon hours will still be possible as the sea breezes merge over inland locations. Daytime highs near average this weekend will increase to above average into early next week due to less storm coverage. Lows will be near normal this weekend and trend a bit above normal Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions except for usual suspect mist/fog at VQQ through the early morning hours. After about 11z/12z, a few showers are expected in the morning hours, from about 13z-16z, along the coastal TAFs, with activity gradually pushing inland through the afternoon. Anticipate showers and storms near GNV about 2-3 hours later than coastal TAFs. Restrictions in showers and storms are likely with MVFR and gusty winds. Estimated that highest chance of IFR showers/storms would be for VQQ and GNV this afternoon. Light to calm winds will become east and southeast at about 7 to 12 knots. && .MARINE... High pressure centered over Bermuda will build westward toward the United States east coast through the weekend shifting flow from east and southeast today to more east late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Sea heights will gradually rise into early Friday due to the persistent southeast winds, which may reach up to 15 knots from Friday through Saturday. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will also continue daily, some of which will produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes. Rip Currents: A wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in wind waves will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet later today with a Moderate rip current risk expected. Friday into the weekend sees potential surf/breakers of 3-4 feet and corresponding increased rip current risk. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers for inland locations as southeasterly winds will be present once again as high pressure builds northeast of the area. Friday, more easterly winds will prevail with coastal showers moving onto the Northeast FL coast before midday with numerous thunderstorms inland in the afternoon. Isolated strong thunderstorm potential will remain each afternoon with storm outflows causing sudden and erratic wind shifts, locally stronger winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning in and near thunderstorms. Overall light transport winds will keep dispersions in the fair range this afternoon, but breezier winds on Friday will allow for good dispersions to develop across inland locations away from the coast. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 72 93 73 / 50 20 20 0 SSI 89 79 90 78 / 20 30 30 30 JAX 90 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 10 SGJ 89 76 89 76 / 30 40 60 20 GNV 90 72 90 73 / 50 10 60 0 OCF 90 73 91 74 / 60 20 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274540 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 240 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas. - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to provide for an easterly surface wind flow over South Florida through the rest of the work week. An inverted trough rounding the Atlantic high pressure will move across the Bahamas today and tonight before reaching Southeast Florida on Friday. The additional moisture and instability brought to the region by this feature will align with the maximum of diurnal heating to enhance sea breeze convection on Friday, particularly over Southwest Florida. Maximum temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Thursday and Friday. Heat index values will reach the lower to mid 100s with some portions of the area exceeding 105 (mainly in SWFL). Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The aforementioned inverted trough is expected to lift northward along the Florida Peninsula late Friday into Saturday. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs generally exceeding 2 inches) will linger across South Florida through much of Saturday, supporting enhanced convective coverage focused across the interior and southwest regions. As the disturbance lifts north of the area, Atlantic surface high pressure will gradually reestablish itself across the Florida Peninsula. This will maintain a moderate easterly to southeasterly flow through early next week before the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat by the middle of the week, resulting in a lighter broad easterly flow. Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement depicting a gradual drying trend beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week, with PWAT values generally decreasing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. These moisture levels are closer to seasonal norms and sufficient to support typical summertime convection. Accordingly, scattered afternoon and evening showers are expected each day through the extended period, with the greatest coverage generally favoring the interior and southwest Florida under the prevailing easterly flow. A plume of Saharan dust may approach South Florida by the middle of next week, which could suppress overall convective coverage and intensity, but confidence on its impacts remains low at this time. The return of Atlantic ridging and overall reduction in cloud cover will support a slow warming trend through the extended forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 90s across much of South Florida, while peak heat indices may reach 105 to 110 F each afternoon. Moderate HeatRisk will persist, especially across the east coast metro and southwest Florida. This warming trend will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days for the potential of increasing heat-related impacts across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly wind flow will persist becoming more gusty later in the morning into the afternoon hours. Intermittent passing showers through most of the period with the potential for thunderstorms focused inland and west late morning through the early evening. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for sub-VFR impacts later today. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly wind becoming moderate across the local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. A disturbance moving across the area late Thursday through Friday could bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity outside of the normal diurnal activity. Seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting this morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along the Atlantic beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 91 80 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 90 78 91 77 / 60 30 60 30 Opa-Locka 91 80 92 80 / 50 40 60 40 Homestead 90 78 91 80 / 60 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 89 80 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 90 81 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 80 90 81 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 79 / 60 50 60 30 Boca Raton 88 79 88 80 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 76 92 77 / 80 20 80 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274538 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. - Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The region will remain between two upper level ridges...one over the Four Corners region and the other over the western Atlantic through the short term. The upper low over the southern Appalachians has opened and moved downstream, but again this weakness in the mid and upper levels remain in its wake. At the surface winds will generally be light and southerly. This has helped bring the humidity values up once again, which is why diurnally driven convection will continue to gradually increase through the short term period as well. Surface temperatures will still be around average for this time of year and with added humidity the "feels like" temperatures will continue to heat up, but still look to remain a degree or two below hazardous thresholds across the CWFA. The cooler locations will be right along the coast with the onshore flow with locations further inland heating up into the middle 90s each afternoon. Going into the weekend surface winds tend to shift a bit more easterly as high pressure tries to build into the Southeast from the east. As for POPs the best course of action through the short term is to apply seasonal afternoon POPs. Not everyone will get rain, but we will not exactly be dry either. Very much the epitome of summer here on the northern Gulf Coast. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week. With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent) south of Interstate 10. Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree mark each day, with timing of convective development determining which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12 corridors in locations that don`t have storms develop until late afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Outside of convection later this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions expected. That said, MCB may see some brief reduced visibilities right around sunrise. As for convection expect brief VIS/CIG reductions at least in the heaviest activity. Convection should be cleared by around sunset with lighter southerly winds. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction today and then southeasterly to easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend. Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274537 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 244 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated, though no major changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days. 2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days. Similar to the last couple nights, another round of showers and isolated storms is expected to develop this morning and affect coastal areas esp. in SC. After morning cloud cover thins out, a separate area of showers and storms is expected to develop inland from the coast during the afternoon as the air heats up. Very heavy rain remains the primary concern as precipitable water values around 2-2.2" continue to stream across the area. Although southerly low- to mid-level flow of 10-20 kts should keep most of the showers and storms moving, if an outflow boundary happens to push out of a storm towards the south, isolated flash flooding may occur due to heavy rain persisting over the same area. From Friday onward, the upper disturbance that has remained in place over the last few days should be a shadow of its former self with a remnant weakness in the height field between the large upper high centered near the Four Corners and another near Bermuda. This weakness in the height field on the periphery of the offshore high will result in a more typical summertime pattern with isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms from Friday through Sunday. With that said, considerable dry air is depicted in forecast soundings on Friday and Saturday before another plume of moisture lifts northward on Sunday. Thus, expect activity to be more spotty and short-lived on Friday and Saturday with somewhat greater coverage on Sunday. Although the greater moisture remains in place into next week, the ridge is expected to build westward, introducing some subsidence into the picture, likely keeping coverage in the typical summertime isolated to widely scattered realm. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F. As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index may potentially reach 105F in some areas every day starting Sunday or Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAF period starts off with VFR conditions everywhere except the Myrtles where stubborn MVFR status is in and out. Moderate confidence in fog development across inland terminals early this morning as winds go calm and low-levels remain moist. Best chance for IFR, and potentially LIFR, conditions is across inland NE SC (including KFLO), although sub-MVFR conditions are also possible for inland SE NC. Lingering winds and scattered showers early in the morning should keep coastal terminals fog- free. After any fog dissipates by mid morning, VFR will prevail during the day with scattered diurnal cu around 4-6 kft. Have included PROB30s later today for widely scattered showers. Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week with winds averaging out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east. Low to moderate chances of showers and storms remain in place every day. A persistent 7-8 second SE swell will be the primary contributor to the wave spectrum. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274536 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 132 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week, with peak heat indices 105 to 110, and high to extreme WBGT values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Mid-level ridging will continue to be the main driver of our forecast for the upcoming period. While a Four-Corners ridge remains generally stationary, the Bermuda high will gradually stretch eastward across Florida. A weak wave looks to ride below the southern edge of the Bermuda high toward the weekend and makes its way toward the Texas coast. Moisture appears limited - so no substantial rain chances expected. Will maintain some 10-20% rain chances with the seabreeze daily through the end of the week. For the weekend could see slightly higher (20-25%) PoPs around the Victoria Crossroads. Temperatures remain near seasonal normals through the period with highs between 100 and 105 west and in the mid and upper 90s east. Heat index values will top out primarily between 105 and 110. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 70s. RH values do fall to near low levels west, however fuel moisture are normal and should limit elevated fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions persist for the majority of the TAF period, with the exception of 08Z-12Z where all terminals have brief periods of MVFR CIGs and/or VIS. Upon mixing of the boundary layer after 12Z, southeast winds pick up to 10-20 kts sustained through 04Z and relaxing to 10 kts or lighter by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore flow can be expected through the forecast period, occasionally fresh winds can be observed along the nearshore waters and bays in the afternoon. Seas will generally range from 2-3 feet through the period. Daily rain chances will be under 20% through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Min RHs will generally drop into the 25-35% range each afternoon through the weekend in the western Brush country and Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs combined with ERCs in the 55-75th percentile range will support localized elevated fire weather conditions over this region each day, however fuel moisture are generally near normal, thus any elevated conditions should be limited. Winds will gradually increase out of the E-SE in the 12 to 18 kt range during the afternoons. Daily rain chances will generally be 10% or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 78 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 96 76 95 75 / 20 0 20 0 Laredo 103 77 102 77 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 98 75 97 74 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 91 80 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 76 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 81 88 81 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274534 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 236 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Easterly flow sets up with a more typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. - Slightly below to near seasonal temperatures expected through the week and into the weekend. - Tropics remain quiet over the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 After about a week or so of onshore westerly flow, the transition to easterly flow will set up over the area as upper ridging and surface high pressure near Bermuda ridges westward across the southeast U.S., northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf. Abundant moisture with PWAT values of 2+ inches and daytime heating will support the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms over the east coast of Florida early in the day and then traversing westward through the afternoon and evening hours. A tropical easterly wave on the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse westward on Friday bringing widespread showers and storms to most of the area on Friday afternoon/evening. Over the weekend, broad upper ridging and surface high pressure located between Bermuda and the Carolinas continues to dominate the weather pattern over Florida. Numerous to widespread showers and storms expected on Saturday, then scattered to numerous showers and storms on Sunday. By Monday, the upper ridge and surface high pressure will nudge slightly southward between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A continued east- southeast wind flow will persist through the first half of next week. Some slightly drier air will move into the region with PWAT values between 1.7 - 2.0 inches expected. This will bring slightly lower rain and storm chances, but still enough for scattered showers and isolated storms developing each afternoon. Temperatures and heat indices are expected to stay below advisory criteria through the period with daytime temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions and easterly winds 10 knots or less will prevail outside of showers and storms. Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon/evening, so will cover this with VCTS and TEMPO TSRA between 17-02Z. Some MVFR CIGS/VSBY restrictions and gusty winds possible in showers and storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf will produce a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over the coastal waters. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each day with the highest chances during the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will be moving in a general east to west direction. Outside of showers and storms, winds will generally remain less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 We will continue to see a shift in winds to a more northeast to southeast direction through the end of the week and into the weekend. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 76 / 70 20 60 30 FMY 92 76 92 76 / 80 30 80 40 GIF 89 75 89 76 / 70 10 70 30 SRQ 91 74 92 75 / 80 30 70 40 BKV 91 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30 SPG 90 77 90 77 / 70 20 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274535 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 236 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Typical summertime pattern with afternoon showers/thunderstorms inland with morning showers/storms over the Gulf and along the immediate coast. Temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s, with morning lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 We can expect a typical summertime pattern over the region for the next several days. A sub-tropical high (Bermuda High) will be extending westward over us, bringing in easterly flow through Friday. Rain chances will be elevated today for the I-75 and I-10 corridors as the easterly winds will increase the PWATs values over the Big Bend region. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall which could lead to a few runoff concerns. PoPs range from 40-60 percent, whereas areas to the west will have much lower chances (<30%) as the moisture will not traverse that far west. Rain chances slightly improve for our Central Time Zone communities, south of I- 10, on Friday to around 30-50% with the added influence of the sea breeze. The typical afternoon shower/thunderstorm pattern with temperatures in the low to mid 90s can be expected through mid next week as the Bermuda High will continue to influence our weather. The high will gradually sink southward by the end of the weekend, shifting our winds more southeasterly. This, however, does not change the outlook as we will continue to have warm temperatures in the low to mid-90s and overnight lows in the 70s. There will be daily chances of precipitation with PoPs ranging around 30-50%. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Some patchy fog may develop in portions of the area but confidence remains low of impacts for the terminals and have kept out of TAFs at this time. Convection will develop this afternoon with better chances on station at TLH/VLD/ABY. In addition, the east coast seabreeze appears to arrive in the evening with possible convection so timing of TSRA may need to be pushed into the mid/late evening depending on trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 A subtropical high near Bermuda will build over the next few days, bringing us gentle easterly breezes heading into the weekend. The High will shift south late this weekend, turning our winds more southeasterly. For the next couple of days, heading into this weekend, there will be daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Erratic wind gusts, lightning, and possible waterspouts will be the main concerns through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Fair dispersions across most districts, with poor dispersions along the immediate Forgotten Coast today. Southeasterly transport winds at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly for Friday. Mixing heights today will reach above 5000 ft over the AL and FL Wiregrass region, with the rest of our districts ranging between 3500-5000 feet. More widespread 4000-5000 ft mixing heights is forecast for Friday afternoon, with the potential for high dispersions along the I-75 corridor. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today with the better chances along the I-10/I-75 corridors this afternoon. Gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the next week. The only concern will be short-lived nuisance flooding beneath the cores of heavier storms. There are no flash or riverine flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 73 93 75 / 50 20 20 10 Panama City 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 50 0 Dothan 93 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10 Albany 93 73 93 74 / 50 30 20 10 Valdosta 94 72 95 73 / 60 30 20 0 Cross City 93 72 93 73 / 60 30 50 10 Apalachicola 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 50 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274533 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 216 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the coast with a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concentrating around the Charleston Metro Area during the morning commute. - 2) A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of the coast with a risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concentrating around the Charleston Metro Area during the morning commute. The synoptic pattern remains favorable for another round of nocturnal showers/tstms to develop over the Atlantic over the next few hours and stream inland along parts of the coast. Similar to Wednesday morning, the mean steering flow looks to favor the bulk of the convection impacting parts of the Charleston Tri-County, including Downtown Charleston. GOES-E Total Precipitable Water data show PWATs are above 2" and the latest RAP output suggest PWATs will remain in the 2-2.25" range along the coastal corridor. While these values are ~0.25" lower than 24 hours, there is still plenty of deep moisture and sufficient instability (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg) nudging inland from off the Atlantic to allow any convection to be highly efficient rain producers capable of producing a quick 1-2" in a very short period of time. HREF neighborhood probabilities for >1"/3hrs are highest across Charleston County, running 50-60% and around 10% for >3"/3hrs. While flash flooding seems unlikely with the bulk of the heaviest rainfall falling within 2 hours either side of low tide (807 AM in Charleston Harbor), minor flooding of urban areas around the Charleston Metro Area as well as low- lying and poor drainage areas in more rural spots can not be ruled out. Of course, Downtown Charleston will be monitored closely as any sustained period of heavy rainfall that becomes aligned across the peninsula could result in some significant issues, even at low tide. Convection should slowly wane by late morning, with a risk for scattered showers/tstms refocusing along/west of the I-95 corridor ahead of the sea breeze. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s with heat indices peaking 100-105. Similar to the past several nights, convection is expected to redevelop over the Atlantic late tonight as low-level convergence shifts back along the west wall of the Gulf Stream after midnight. Activity does not look as extensive as the past few nights, but some degree of isolated to perhaps scattered showers/tstms will make a run for the coast during the early morning hours Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: A typical summertime pattern will remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and the threat for localized heavy rainfall will be possible each day. The pattern will be dominated by deep high pressure over the western Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. This will support daily scattered convection through the weekend, with the sea breeze and any remnant outflow boundaries serving as the primary focus for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect deep moisture into the region. Moderate instability looks to develop each afternoon, with SBCAPE values rising to 2500-3000 J/kg. PWAT values near or slightly above 2 inches nearly each day will support efficient rainfall rates, with some storms capable of dropping a quick 1-2 inches of rain in a short period. In addition, slow storm motions of around 10 kt, combined with training or repeated rounds of convection, could increase the potential for isolated instances of minor flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Friday will be the exception, as somewhat drier air filters in noted by pockets of PWATs between 1.5 to 1.7 inches. This should limit convection coverage as well as the minor flooding threat. Lastly, with little shear in the environment, storms will remain pulse-like. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger to marginally severe storms could produce damaging wind gusts. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06/06z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI: Another round of showers/tstms is expected to develop over the Atlantic prior to daybreak and spread inland this morning. The risk for tstm impacts look greatest at KJZI where a TEMPO for TSRA was maintained and centered in the 11-14z time period. Confidence for impacts at KCHS is a bit lower, so PROB30 13-16z was highlighted. Conditions were limited to MVFR for now at both terminals, but cigs and especially vsbys could be considerably lower at times if pockets of heavier rains move directly over the terminals. Amendments will be issued as trends become more apparent. Convection should clear both terminals by late morning and any afternoon activity should remain well to the west. KSAV: Morning convection should largely remain east of the terminal through daybreak. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to start to focus near I-95 by late morning then consolidate farther inland later in the afternoon. PROB30 for TSRA was included 15-18z to account for activity developing near the terminal by late morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms this week and into this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Another round of showers/tstms is expected to impact the waters this morning. These storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rainfall reducing vsbys to 1 NM or less. Outside of convection, south to southeast winds 10 kt or less will persist into tonight with seas 1-3 ft. Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant synoptic feature through the weekend. This will generate a typical summertime wind field with increased winds along the land/sea interface each afternoon associated with the sea breeze. Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Waterspouts: Forecast sounding output and elevated non- supercell tornado parameters values over the nearshore and offshore waters look to support an elevated risk for waterspouts again this morning. Several were observed yesterday. A Marine Weather Statement to alert mariners to this possibility will be issued. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274532 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 156 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - The typical afternoon convective pattern continues through Thursday before a disturbance moves across the peninsula Friday into Saturday leading to higher rain chances, increasing seas, and a greater risk of rip currents. - Conditions trend drier from Sunday onward as high pressure is reestablished across the local waters and drier air aloft moves towards east central Florida. - Hot and humid conditions will persist across east central Florida, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Tonight-Thursday...Broad high pressure remains extended towards the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Persistent cloud coverage across the area through this morning and early afternoon has helped limit daytime heating locally, which has in turn led to a decrease in rain chances across the area. Brought PoPs down to 30-50% through the remainder of today, with both the HRRR and RRFS trending towards less coverage across east central Florida. Surface flow remains out of the southeast to east, resulting in the highest chances being focused across the interior and portions of the Treasure Coast where onshore-moving activity remains possible. Storm development is also forecast, with RAP guidance forecasting MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, DCAPE ranging between 500-700 J/kg, and 500 mb temperatures staying around -8C. Based on these parameters, storm hazards through this afternoon will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding in some locations and small hail will also be possible, but confidence remains low at this time. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours, with continued isolated to scattered shower and storm development possible across the Gulf Stream waters. Thursday, the surface high is forecast to lift northward, with the ridge axis well north of Florida. Winds areawide become more easterly, which will support some light, isolated early morning onshore-moving showers along the coast. Coverage of showers will increase through the late morning and afternoon hours as a diffuse east coast sea breeze moves inland and supports shower and storm development. PWATs of 1.9-2.2" overspread the area, with PoPs a touch higher on Thursday at 40-70% compared to today. Guidance indicates that MLCAPE will exceed 1500 J/kg and DCAPE will range between 500-800 J/kg, with 500 mb temperatures remaining on the cooler side between -9C to -8C. Based on these parameters, the typical summertime storm hazards remain on the table, including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, heavy downpours, and small hail. Minor, localized flooding will also continue to be possible, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of showers and storms. Activity will move westward as supported by persistent east to southeast flow aloft, with coverage anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours. Continued isolated to scattered development across the Atlantic waters through the overnight hours will be possible, with a low chance of some activity moving onshore along the coast. Temperatures remain on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon, with a similar outlook for Thursday afternoon. Moisture present across the area will keep conditions muggy, with peak heat indices of 100-105F possible. Overnight, temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough at the surface is anticipated to lift northward from the Bahamas across the Florida peninsula late this week into the early weekend. This will bring a surge of moisture towards the east central Florida area, with PWATs forecast to exceed 2.1-2.2" areawide. The result will be above- normal rain chances, with PoPs of 70-80% on Friday and 50-70% on Saturday. Early morning showers across the local waters and along the coast will spread inland through the late morning and afternoon hours, aided by persistent southeast to east flow at the surface and aloft. Guidance indicates that flow aloft will be sufficient in keeping activity moving, but multiple rounds of showers will increase the potential for localized minor flooding in some spots. In addition to the rain, scattered storms will also be possible Friday and Saturday. MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, dewpoints exceeding 70F, and 500 mb temperatures of -8C to -7C will support storm development and frequent lightning strikes with activity. Additionally, modest DCAPE ranging from 500-900 J/kg will support some gusty showers and storms, with gusts up to 50 mph possible at times. Showers and storms are anticipated to diminish into the overnight hours on Friday and again on Saturday, with the trough lifting northward and away from the area Saturday evening. With the greater moisture present across the peninsula, cloud coverage is anticipated to be higher that normal. This will limit daytime heating across the area, resulting in afternoon temperatures remaining near-normal values in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Peak heat indices are forecast to still exceed 100F, ranging from 100-105F. Muggy conditions will continue through the overnight hours, with lows generally in the mid 70s. It is important to also note that the passing trough will lead to an increase of seas across the local Atlantic waters, which will in turn result in choppier surf. Current indications are that this will lead to an increasing risk of life-threatening rip currents at the local beaches, so plan accordingly. Sunday-Tuesday...Mid-level ridging builds across the Florida peninsula and adjacent Atlantic waters late this weekend into next week, with the surface Atlantic high gradually shifting southward once again. The ridge axis will extend across the Florida peninsula, resulting in lighter winds locally which will allow for the return of a more diurnal pattern each day through the extended period. Rain and storm chances are forecast to return closer to normal values on Sunday and Monday (30-60%), with chances falling Tuesday onward as drier air aloft moves across the peninsula and helps limit some convective potential. The return of the high pressure overhead will allow for some warming across east central Florida through the extended period, with afternoon highs near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat indices are overall anticipated to remain between 102-107F, though there is a low chance of exceeding 108F in some spots, but confidence remains low at this time. Will closely monitor. Muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours each day, with lows remaining near normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Broad high pressure through Thursday will keep boating conditions generally favorable, with onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet forecast locally. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through the daytime and nighttime hours. By Friday, the high shifts north as an inverted trough lifts across the local Atlantic waters from the Bahamas. The quick pressure change will lead to increasing seas locally, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet. The highest seas will be focused across the Gulf Stream, with onshore winds ranging from 10 to 20 knots areawide. A surge of moisture is also anticipated in conjunction with the lifting inverted trough, resulting in above- normal rain and storm chances on Friday (60-80%) and closer to normal chances on Saturday (30-50%). As the inverted trough exits the area late Saturday, high pressure is anticipated to reestablish across the local Atlantic waters from Sunday onward. Winds shift to out of the southeast generally between 5 to 10 knots, with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late this weekend into next week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the extended, though recent trends continue to favor drier conditions across the local Atlantic waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 VFR conditions generally expected outside of showers and storms. Onshore flow persists through today, with easterly winds increasing to around 10-13 knots through this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible along the coast from KMLB south. Onshore moving isolated SHRA/TSRA possible along the coast, especially from KVRB-KSUA through early this morning. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will then develop early along the coast and increase in coverage across the interior as this activity shifts westward through the late morning/afternoon. Have 3 hour TEMPO/PROB30 groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for most sites, starting as early as as 14-17Z at KVRB-KSUA, shifting further in time to 17/18-20/21Z across the interior. Majority of convection should shift west of the area by 00Z, but scattered showers and isolated onshore moving storms may redevelop south of KMLB into Thursday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 88 76 / 40 20 70 20 MCO 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 88 78 88 77 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 89 77 89 76 / 50 30 60 20 LEE 90 76 90 77 / 60 20 70 10 SFB 91 77 91 77 / 50 20 60 10 ORL 91 77 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 88 77 88 76 / 50 30 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274531 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) on Thursday become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday as clouds and low to medium (15-40%) afternoon chances of rain cool temperatures slightly. - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is likely across most of deep south Texas on Thursday for heat indices of at least 108-111 F and a heat advisory is possible for inland Kenedy and Willacy counties. - Chances of rain diminish by the beginning of next week and temperatures warm again, deteriorating heat risks back to mainly major with pockets of extreme (level 4 of 4) from the early to middle part of next week as heat indices climb back to at least 108-111 F. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A 594+ dam high pressure aloft remains persistent over the 4 Corners and southeastern US throughout most of the next 7 days, gradually building and peaking around 597+ dam Friday through Saturday. This is expected to result in another scorching hot day across the region on Thursday (ahead of any potential afternoon clouds/rain) with widespread inland air temperatures soaring into the lower/mid 100s along/west of I-69 E, while inland/coastal areas further east peak into the upper 90s as well as mid 80s along the immediate Gulf coast. As has been the recurring pattern for this ongoing weather setup, a SPS is likely to be issued overnight tonight or Thursday morning for all inland and coastal portions of deep south Texas as Thursday afternoon heat indices are expected to climb to at least 108-111 F. A heat advisory remains possible, particularly for inland portions of Kenedy and Willacy counties, for apparent temperatures of 111-113 F. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves traversing the northern and eastern periphery of the high`s ridge leads to a southwestward extension of mid/upper level troughing to the Southern Plains from the Midwest, lowering heights just a bit as well as building cloud coverage and moisture content, resulting in a daily chance of rain along the afternoon/early evening seabreeze boundary Thursday into Sunday. Guidance still remains a bit incohesive at this time, but there is a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northern Ranchlands on Thursday and the Lower/Middle RGV on Friday, where chances increase to a 20-30% on Saturday, followed by a low to medium (20-40%) chance along/east of US-281 on Sunday, highest along/east of I-69 E. Yet, again, models continue to diverge a fair amount on overall coverage and deepness of convection, with brief periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning and some gusty winds not out of the question, especially over the weekend as pockets of PWAT values could exceed 2.0 in. Regardless, this is likely to gradually lower temperatures by a few degrees Friday into Sunday, with lower 100s mainly limited to the Rio Grande Plains and the Upper RGV as well as kick heat indices down to around 105-110 F across the region, with mostly moderate heat risks and pockets of minor. Following, high pressure aloft begins to stretch across the Southern Plains to another building high pressure over the northeastern Gulf, re-enhancing subsidence aloft, diminishing cloud cover/rain chances and causing temperatures to rebound; widespread lower/mid 100s high temperatures and moderate to major heat risks return by Monday, gradually deteriorating to major, with pockets of extreme, by the middle of next week. Additional SPSs and/or heat advisories are likely as heat indices maximize around 108-111 F for most locations. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Light southeast winds with a few passing low to mid level clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Southeast winds are expected to increase 15 to 20 kts by mid to late morning with some gusts around 25 kts in the afternoon. A brief period or two of MVFR ceilings could impact MFE through around 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds become mostly gentle to moderate on Friday and through the weekend before re-enhancing back to moderate to fresh by the beginning of next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from a low (15-20%) chance to as much as a low to medium (30-60%) chance Saturday and Sunday before gradually winding down to 10% or less by next Monday or Tuesday. Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas continue, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible from time-to- time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 97 80 96 79 / 10 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 100 76 97 75 / 10 0 20 0 MCALLEN 103 80 101 78 / 10 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 101 76 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 88 80 / 10 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274530 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. - Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A fairly typical August atmospheric set up. Generally, at the surface we are on the western periphery of the Bermuda high and in the upper levels we have high pressure to the west and east with a very weak corridor of slightly lower pressure in between. This brings the typical August weather of afternoon showers and weak storms following mesoscale boundaries and offshore convection overnight into the very early morning hours. Temperatures are also typical with lows in the lower to mid 70s an highs in the lower to mid 90s. The afternoon cloud cover will help to manage the highs and keep us just below the thresholds for heat headlines. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. Broad troughing extending across the central and eastern CONUS will keep stronger upper-level ridging displaced west of the region, while the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge maintains generally south to southeast low-level flow across the central Gulf Coast. This will continue transporting deeper Gulf moisture into the area, with precipitable water values above 2 inches through much of the period. With no well-defined synoptic forcing expected, convection will primarily be driven by daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries. Showers and thunderstorms will initially develop over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland along the sea breeze during the afternoon. Additional development will be possible along outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Scattered to numerous coverage is expected each day, generally favoring southern and coastal portions of the CWA early before spreading farther inland during peak heating. Weak steering flow through much of the column will favor slow-moving, pulse-type storms capable of producing frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Convective coverage and placement will likely vary considerably from one location to another each day. Little meaningful change in the overall pattern is currently apparent Monday and Tuesday. The region should remain beneath weak flow aloft with ample moisture and only subtle forcing, allowing the daily marine and sea-breeze convective cycle to continue. Any weak perturbations embedded within the flow could locally enhance coverage, but confidence remains low regarding their timing and placement at this range. Temperatures will be near to slightly above early-August normals. Afternoon highs should generally reach the lower to mid 90s across inland areas, with upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the immediate coast. Earlier convective development may hold some locations several degrees cooler. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s near the coast and tidal lakes. The combination of increasing humidity and temperatures in the 90s will produce afternoon heat index values generally in the 100 to 107 degree range. A few locations could briefly approach Heat Advisory criteria before convection develops, but widespread hazardous heat is not currently anticipated. [Meffer/Schlotz] && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Outside of convection later this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions expected. That said, MCB may see some brief reduced visibilities right around sunrise. As for convection expect brief VIS/CIG reductions at least in the heaviest activity. Convection should be cleared by around sunset with lighter southerly winds. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Surface high-pressure axis over the southern Gulf is being absorbed by the Bermuda ridge. The low- level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction Thursday and then southeasterly to easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established late in the week. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet through Thursday. Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoons. /Schlotz/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274529 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again today with the highest chances remaining over the interior and Southwest Florida. - Peak heat index values will generally range between 100 and 109 across most areas this afternoon resulting in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the metro areas. - Increasing easterly wind flow during the second half of the week will allow a High Risk of Rip Currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches that will persist into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Increased ESE flow has allowed for scattered showers to move onshore from the Atlantic over the course of the morning. Current mid-level water vapor imagery and recent ACARs soundings indicate that South Florida is still under the influence of deep tropical moisture, with PWATs once again above the 75th percentile for this time of year. With Atlantic ridging strengthening and extending into Florida, breezier easterly flow will likely allow for quicker storm motions. Despite storm motions being a little bit quicker than the last few days, the main threat for this afternoon will once again be heavy torrential rainfall. Scattered to numerous storms look to develop along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions this afternoon. However, unlike the last few days, easterly flow will shift the main focus of thunderstorms more towards interior and Southwest Florida. HREF ensemble guidance indicates that the highest probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rainfall (about 40% chance) will be along the Gulf breeze in Collier county. Localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches over urban areas may create isolated flooding impacts along poor drainage and low lying locations. Heavy rain may also create lower visibilities and hazardous driving conditions, particularly over Alligator Alley and Tamiami Trail. The presence of some lingering mid-level dry air and DCAPE values between 700 and 900 J/kg may also hint at an isolated threat of a few strong wind gusts. Frequent lightning will also be common with any storm. Storm activity should wane after sunset, with light easterly winds persisting. Overnight, isolated shower activity looks to once again develop over the more unstable Gulf Stream waters, moving onshore over the eastern metro. Thursday afternoon will be pretty similar to Wednesday, with scattered to numerous storms focusing along interior and Southwest Florida. With moist conditions persisting, the main threats will once again be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and isolated strong wind gusts. The pressure gradient for Thursday may be a little bit stronger, so breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts may be more common. As result, storm motions may once again be a little bit quicker towards the west. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk will persist for all urban areas through the period. Maximum temperatures will be near average for this time of year, in the lower 90s. Heat indices look to remain just below Heat Advisory criteria for most locations, but still climb up into the 100 to 108 F range. Sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration will be at risk of heat illness under these conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 444 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 There is generally good agreement among long term ensemble guidance that ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to strengthen and shift closer to the Florida Peninsula. With 500mb heights climbing to near 594 dam over South Florida, temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will also be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria, once again between 105 and 110 F. This will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk and isolated Major HeatRisk across South Florida, affecting anyone without proper cooling and hydration. At the surface, the pressure gradient associated with high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will continue tighten. This will result in continued breezy easterly winds for Friday, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts possible. Guidance is also hinting at a weak inverted trough approaching from the northern Caribbean on Friday, which also looks to bring some increased moisture to South Florida. Ensemble probabilities indicate a high chance (80%) for PWATs to exceed 2 inches, above the 75th percentile for this time of year. As a result, PoPs will be much higher areawide on Friday, with highest chances of 90% along interior and Southwest Florida. There is still some uncertainty among guidance on how different solutions resolve the speed and strength of this disturbance, but the added forcing from this feature should allow for more numerous and stronger storms to develop during the afternoon. The main threats will be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. For the weekend and beyond, pressure gradients across the Atlantic look to relax, which will lessen the speed of easterlies across the region. Moisture also looks to trend down to near normal, which should result in more typical sea-breeze induced afternoon convection. However, there is a signal that some drier air and Saharan dust may start to work its way into the region by the beginning of next week. Prior to the arrival of the main Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a bit of increased mid level dry air may serve to enhance the threat of strong to damaging wind gusts from afternoon thunderstorms. If conditions get too dry aloft, it is more likely that convection will struggle to develop, decreasing chances for storms. For now, PoPs will be on the lower end to begin next week, peaking at around 50% along interior South Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Easterly wind flow will persist becoming more gusty later in the morning into the afternoon hours. Intermittent passing showers through most of the period with the potential for thunderstorms focused inland and west late morning through the early evening. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for sub-VFR impacts later today. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Light to gentle winds across most of the local waters will gradually build out of the east today into Thursday, becoming moderate across most local waters through late week. Occasional fresh breezes are possible over the Atlantic waters during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less today, however, seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually increase and could range between 3 to 4 feet heading into Thursday and Friday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 444 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Easterly winds will gradually increase through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there is a High Risk of Rip Currents starting Thursday morning and continuing through at least Saturday morning along all Atlantic Coast beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 90 80 / 60 50 60 40 West Kendall 89 76 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 Opa-Locka 90 79 91 79 / 60 50 60 30 Homestead 90 79 91 79 / 60 50 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 89 79 / 60 60 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 60 60 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 80 90 80 / 60 50 60 40 West Palm Beach 89 79 89 79 / 60 60 70 30 Boca Raton 88 79 88 79 / 60 50 70 40 Naples 91 77 91 77 / 90 30 90 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274528 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week. - Heat indices will trend upward, reaching around 100-107 degrees through the weekend. - A Moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop at area beaches Friday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Starting off tonight with a broad overview looking at the mid- levels, we remain sandwiched between two dominant ridge centers, one anomalously strong, 594dm ridge anchored across the SW US and another offshore the Mid-atlantic states. This slow/steady transition into a broader weakness regime over the northern Gulf has started to weaken the mid-level subsidence inversion steadily, obtaining a bit greater LCL-surface inversion instability to support a few isolated showers/storms going following sfc heating, more particularly aided by sea/baybreeze collisions. Generally speaking, expecting no major difference today starting off the day with a few showers forced by the northward drifting sea/baybreeze from 15-18Z, then greater areal coverage in isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon when the coast clears out. Dewpoints will drop from afternoon PBL mixing ahead of the boundary reaching the low 70`s/upper 60`s inland. Looking beyond into Friday and the upcoming weekend, quite frankly the pattern remains much of the same with little notable changes with the same diurnal isolated to scattered shower windows starting near the coast, ending inland. We do continue to see a steady uptick in surface dewpoints that does climb max heat indices into the 105-107 range in spots, but still far from anything concerning/impactful at this time. The aforementioned upper-air pattern does transition slightly with the ridge center pressing north across the four-corners region, and the mid- atlantic coast ridge dipping south to just offshore coastal FL. What this could, in part do is allow east to west tropical impulses to ride west into the Gulf and find the weakness towards our neck of the woods. This will in turn support an uptick in daily rain/storm chances and coverage by the additional dynamic support at play in conjunction with a deep, moist southerly Gulf flow. Can`t rule out an uptick in coverage, namely Sunday through Tuesday. Looking at the extended/late end of the forecast into the middle of next week, took a closer look at cluster analysis to identify ensemble similarities and trends in regards to a suggested strengthening ridge over the northern Gulf, that 1) could reduce daily rain chances and 2) could re-crank the heat back up a notch. CMC, EMS and GEFS similarities are rather confident thus far, so something to watch as we near closer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Some patchy fog and/or low ceilings with localized MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out late tonight away from the coast. A 20-40% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exists near the coast this morning, spreading inland through the afternoon. This activity could create brief drops to MVFR or lower visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly to southerly on Thursday at around 5-10 knots. Some gusts to 15-20 knots are possible over southern areas with the sea breeze. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Current light southerly to southwesterly winds shift on Thursday to southeasterly to easterly before becoming generally southerly by the beginning of next week. Wind speeds should remain around 5-10 knots with some gusts up to 15 knots Friday and Saturday. Wave heights stay 1-2 feet through the beginning of next week. Friday through mid next week, showers and storms are possible in the morning then shifts inland for the afternoon hours. Higher winds and seas are possible near any thunderstorms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 73 92 73 / 30 10 20 0 Pensacola 89 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 30 10 Evergreen 92 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Waynesboro 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 10 20 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 Crestview 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274527 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 122 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 735 EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near normal temperatures and isolated to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend. Evening wx analysis shows a weakening upper level trough over the southern Appalachians, with southerly flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. Only a few isolated showers and storms have appeared on radar (mainly across the Piedmont and NE NC) thanks to height rises from the building ridge offshore and no boundaries/well defined forcing mechanism nearby. Convection should continue until around sunset (given the loss of daytime heating), though the vast majority of the area will stay dry. Flash flooding appears unlikely at this time. However, cannot completely rule out very localized issues if a shower/storm hits one of the locations which received significant rainfall yesterday. The drying trend continues on Thursday with even more height rises as the ridge offshore builds to the west. There is only a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm during the aftn/evening (mainly in the Piedmont). With lower storm chances, temps rebound to the upper 80s-lower 90s on Thursday with upper 90s- low 100s heat indices. Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with some slight height falls over the local area as the upper ridge offshore retreats a bit to the SE and a series of weak shortwaves pass by to our N/NW. This will lead to slightly greater chances for diurnally driven showers or storms on Friday and Saturday across western and northern portions of the area but PoPs generally remain aob 30%. A few storms are possible on Sunday, with the highest precip chances (still only 20-30%) shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Seasonable heat and humidity will continue through the weekend, with heat indices in the upper 90s-low 100s each day. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SW winds generally 5-10 kt overnight and closer to 10 kt with gusts 15 kt today. Few to scattered CU are possible late morning through the afternoon. Convective coverage today is expected to be very sparse but the relative highest chances are focused on ECG and ORF this afternoon. Outlook: A more typical Summer pattern returns for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Only isolated aftn/evening convection is expected on Fri/Sat. && .MARINE... As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through late week, outside of local thunderstorm influences. This afternoon, a warm front has lifted north of the local waters. Meanwhile, expansive high pressure is centered well offshore and is building into the local waters. Winds are primarily out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. Nearshore seas are averaging 2 to 3 feet while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are averaging 1 to 2 feet. Bermuda high will slowly drift closer to the area late this week into the weekend, allowing for a more typical summer setup over the waters. S to SW winds will generally average 10 to 15 knots throughout the period, with S to SE afternoon seabreeze circulations each afternoon. Daily afternoon and evening shower and storm chances persist into the weekend, though chances will be much lower Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk looks to persist across the northern beaches through midweek, with a low risk for the southern beaches. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274526 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Seasonable summer weather will prevail for the next week. This includes the daily rhythm of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, plus morning storms over the Gulf and near the immediate coast. Normal levels of summer heat will bring minor to moderate heat-related impacts. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Satellite imagery shows a long axis of richer, deeper moisture off to our east, extending from SW FL to coastal SC. Within that axis, very moist Precipitable Water values range from about 2 to 2.3 inches. The western edge of this moist corridor is currently clipping the Suwannee Valley, but most of our forecast area is under slightly drier Pwats ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches. Tonight, our weak southerly low-mid level flow will back around more southeasterly, as the strong subtropical high near Bermuda starts to expand west across central Georgia. This will shove the moist axis into our Eastern Time Zone counties on Thursday, particularly areas east of the Apalachicola and Flint. PoPs will therefore increase in these areas tomorrow, with an increased chance of afternoon thunderstorms, including an increased number of lightning strikes and heavier rainfall rates beneath storm cores. For our Central Time Zone counties, the moister air will wait until Friday to reach you, so no change in convective coverage is expected on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 1000-700 mb layer flow will back around a bit more easterly on Friday and Saturday, pushing moister air westward into our Central Time Zone counties on Friday. The subtropical ridge axis will slowly drop southward across the service area on Sunday and Monday. PW values will remain in a seasonable 1.7 to 2.2 inch range, but weaker flow and weak subsidence within the ridge axis will help afternoon convection to be more confined to the seabreeze zone over our FL counties. The ridge axis will settle south into the Gulf on Monday night through Wednesday, so we will get into weak southwesterly low-mid level flow. 500 mb heights will build a little around midweek, which could bring a small upward bump in temperatures and a little subsidence to nudge PW values down a little. From a sensible standpoint, these subtle changes may not be discernible and could seem like more of the same seasonable summer weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Some patchy fog may develop in portions of the area but confidence remains low of impacts for the terminals and have kept out of TAFs at this time. Convection will develop this afternoon with better chances on station at TLH/VLD/ABY. In addition, the east coast seabreeze appears to arrive in the evening with possible convection so timing of TSRA may need to be pushed into the mid/late evening depending on trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A subtropical high out near Bermuda will build a ridge westward across Georgia tonight, persisting north of the waters through Sunday. During this time, gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail. On Monday, the subtropical ridge axis will settle southward across the waters, bringing lighter and more variable breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Typical summer weather will prevail for the next week, with seasonably hot temperatures, a seasonably moist and unstable air mass, and the daily rhythm of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The main fire weather concern will therefore be erratic and gusty downburst winds in the vicinity of afternoon storms. Seasonable temperatures will bring minor to moderate heat-related health impacts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 No flash flooding and no river flooding are expected for the next 7 days. A typical summer pattern featuring the daily rhythm of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will prevail. Therefore, the only concern will be short-lived nuisance flooding beneath the cores of heavier storms. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 92 74 91 / 20 20 10 30 Panama City 74 91 75 91 / 20 30 10 30 Dothan 72 92 74 92 / 20 30 10 30 Albany 73 92 73 92 / 30 20 10 20 Valdosta 72 95 73 93 / 30 20 10 40 Cross City 72 92 73 91 / 30 50 30 70 Apalachicola 76 89 76 88 / 60 50 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274524 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1154 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week. - Heat indices will trend upward, reaching around 100-107 degrees through the weekend. - A Moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop at area beaches Friday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Starting off tonight with a broad overview looking at the mid- levels, we remain sandwiched between two dominant ridge centers, one anomalously strong, 594dm ridge anchored across the SW US and another offshore the Mid-atlantic states. This slow/steady transition into a broader weakness regime over the northern Gulf has started to weaken the mid-level subsidence inversion steadily, obtaining a bit greater LCL-surface inversion instability to support a few isolated showers/storms going following sfc heating, more particularly aided by sea/baybreeze collisions. Generally speaking, expecting no major difference today starting off the day with a few showers forced by the northward drifting sea/baybreeze from 15-18Z, then greater areal coverage in isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon when the coast clears out. Dewpoints will drop from afternoon PBL mixing ahead of the boundary reaching the low 70`s/upper 60`s inland. Looking beyond into Friday and the upcoming weekend, quite frankly the pattern remains much of the same with little notable changes with the same diurnal isolated to scattered shower windows starting near the coast, ending inland. We do continue to see a steady uptick in surface dewpoints that does climb max heat indices into the 105-107 range in spots, but still far from anything concerning/impactful at this time. The aforementioned upper-air pattern does transition slightly with the ridge center pressing north across the four-corners region, and the mid- atlantic coast ridge dipping south to just offshore coastal FL. What this could, in part do is allow east to west tropical impulses to ride west into the Gulf and find the weakness towards our neck of the woods. This will in turn support an uptick in daily rain/storm chances and coverage by the additional dynamic support at play in conjunction with a deep, moist southerly Gulf flow. Can`t rule out an uptick in coverage, namely Sunday through Tuesday. Looking at the extended/late end of the forecast into the middle of next week, took a closer look at cluster analysis to identify ensemble similarities and trends in regards to a suggested strengthening ridge over the northern Gulf, that 1) could reduce daily rain chances and 2) could re-crank the heat back up a notch. CMC, EMS and GEFS similarities are rather confident thus far, so something to watch as we near closer. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Some patchy fog and/or low ceilings with localized MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out late tonight away from the coast. A 20-40% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exists near the coast Thursday morning, spreading inland through the afternoon. This activity could create brief drops to MVFR or lower visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly to southerly on Thursday at around 5-10 knots. Some gusts to 15-20 knots are possible over southern areas with the sea breeze. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Current light southerly to southwesterly winds shift on Thursday to southeasterly to easterly before becoming generally southerly by the beginning of next week. Wind speeds should remain around 5-10 knots with some gusts up to 15 knots Friday and Saturday. Wave heights stay 1-2 feet through the beginning of next week. Friday through mid next week, showers and storms are possible in the morning then shifts inland for the afternoon hours. Higher winds and seas are possible near any thunderstorms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 91 72 91 / 10 30 0 20 Pensacola 77 89 76 90 / 10 30 0 20 Destin 79 88 77 89 / 0 20 20 30 Evergreen 72 92 71 92 / 20 20 10 30 Waynesboro 73 94 73 95 / 0 20 10 10 Camden 73 90 72 91 / 0 20 10 10 Crestview 72 92 71 93 / 10 30 0 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274522 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) on Thursday become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday as clouds and low to medium (15-40%) afternoon chances of rain cool temperatures slightly. - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is likely across most of deep south Texas on Thursday for heat indices of at least 108-111 F and a heat advisory is possible for inland Kenedy and Willacy counties. - Chances of rain diminish by the beginning of next week and temperatures warm again, deteriorating heat risks back to mainly major with pockets of extreme (level 4 of 4) from the early to middle part of next week as heat indices climb back to at least 108-111 F. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 A 594+ dam high pressure aloft remains persistent over the 4 Corners and southeastern US throughout most of the next 7 days, gradually building and peaking around 597+ dam Friday through Saturday. This is expected to result in another scorching hot day across the region on Thursday (ahead of any potential afternoon clouds/rain) with widespread inland air temperatures soaring into the lower/mid 100s along/west of I-69 E, while inland/coastal areas further east peak into the upper 90s as well as mid 80s along the immediate Gulf coast. As has been the recurring pattern for this ongoing weather setup, a SPS is likely to be issued overnight tonight or Thursday morning for all inland and coastal portions of deep south Texas as Thursday afternoon heat indices are expected to climb to at least 108-111 F. A heat advisory remains possible, particularly for inland portions of Kenedy and Willacy counties, for apparent temperatures of 111-113 F. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves traversing the northern and eastern periphery of the high`s ridge leads to a southwestward extension of mid/upper level troughing to the Southern Plains from the Midwest, lowering heights just a bit as well as building cloud coverage and moisture content, resulting in a daily chance of rain along the afternoon/early evening seabreeze boundary Thursday into Sunday. Guidance still remains a bit incohesive at this time, but there is a 15-20% chance of isolated showers and a few thunderstorms across the Northern Ranchlands on Thursday and the Lower/Middle RGV on Friday, where chances increase to a 20-30% on Saturday, followed by a low to medium (20-40%) chance along/east of US-281 on Sunday, highest along/east of I-69 E. Yet, again, models continue to diverge a fair amount on overall coverage and deepness of convection, with brief periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning and some gusty winds not out of the question, especially over the weekend as pockets of PWAT values could exceed 2.0 in. Regardless, this is likely to gradually lower temperatures by a few degrees Friday into Sunday, with lower 100s mainly limited to the Rio Grande Plains and the Upper RGV as well as kick heat indices down to around 105-110 F across the region, with mostly moderate heat risks and pockets of minor. Following, high pressure aloft begins to stretch across the Southern Plains to another building high pressure over the northeastern Gulf, re-enhancing subsidence aloft, diminishing cloud cover/rain chances and causing temperatures to rebound; widespread lower/mid 100s high temperatures and moderate to major heat risks return by Monday, gradually deteriorating to major, with pockets of extreme, by the middle of next week. Additional SPSs and/or heat advisories are likely as heat indices maximize around 108-111 F for most locations. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Breezy conditions this evening (SE winds around 12-16 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots) are likely to diminish to gentle, light and variable at times, within a few hours following sunset. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 00Z TAFs as southeasterly winds return to similar speeds by the afternoon hours tomorrow. Guidance is just a bit inconsistent at this time, but a brief shower or two is possible late tonight followed by another chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, though not included in the TAFs due to low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds become mostly gentle to moderate on Friday and through the weekend before re-enhancing back to moderate to fresh by the beginning of next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from a low (15-20%) chance to as much as a low to medium (30-60%) chance Saturday and Sunday before gradually winding down to 10% or less by next Monday or Tuesday. Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas continue, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions possible from time-to- time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 97 80 96 / 0 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 99 76 97 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 81 103 80 101 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 88 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 95 79 93 / 0 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274521 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 06.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values 100-107F each day. - An isolated late day shower can`t be ruled out along the seabreeze in the afternoons. - Slightly better rain chances expected Thursday into early next week for the eastern and southern parts of the region as some deeper moisture flows back inland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Ridging centered over the Southwest CONUS/Four Corners will keep uneventful weather over the region through the better half of next week at least. Heights and 850mb temperatures are still expected to drop into the weekend, resulting slightly lower heat stress and surface temperatures. Reduced subsidence and rising PWs should bring better rain chances during this period as well, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible along the seabreeze/baybreeze each afternoon. Highs remain in the 90s each day with heat indices reaching the triple digits in the afternoon. Some patchy fog will be possible during the early morning hours. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period, with the exemption of the potential for a brief period of MVFR cigs to possibly IFR cigs from around 11-14Z for some sites. Winds will relax to 5 KTS or less tonight and become VRB. Winds will be SSW at 5-10 KTS Thu morning and turn S-SE at 08-12 KTS Thu afternoon. There is a slight chance for iso showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon, in particular for HOU/IAH/SGR/CXO. Storms, is any, are expected to dissipate in the evening. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Onshore winds 10-15 knots and seas of 2-4 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Rain chances increase slightly through early next week. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will be greatest during the late night through early afternoon hours for the Gulf. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 98 78 97 79 / 20 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 83 / 0 0 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
