Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic is quiet again
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - ((Unknown Region)) Selection: |
| #1239810 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1024 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure in the upper layers will maintain dry, hot conditions through the forecast. Despite near-normal temperatures for this time of year, return of moisture with an inverted trough in the mid- layers will allow for a sudden jump to uncomfortable conditions. Heat remains the main concern going into this weekend with a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts as apparent temperatures climb to 111+ in the afternoons. The highest apparent temperatures are expected along US-83 into Hidalgo and Starr counties, and along and east of I-69C, particularly inland Kenedy and inland Willacy counties. This may warrant issuance of Heat Advisories and/or Special Weather Statements for any given afternoon today through the weekend. Visit weather.gov/heatsafety for more resources on staying safe in the heat. At lower Texas beaches, expect a low risk of rip currents as we finish off the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Primarily VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Winds becoming light and variable overnight, with a low chance (<20%) of shallow fog bringing MVFR to IFR vsby/cigs around sunrise at HRL and BRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle south to southeasterly winds and slight seas will persist through the week. Flow may become moderate along the coast in afternoons with sea breeze. There is a less than 10% chance of rain each day through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 78 96 79 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 78 102 79 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 80 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 94 78 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239809 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Earlier lingering convection across the far eastern waters of our CWA, quickly dissipated prior to sunset. Since then the radar has been mostly void of any showers. Within the last hour or so, some showers are starting to percolate east of Andros Island, but remain still outside of our waters for the time being. Meanwhile, the western flank of an Atlantic Ridge remains situated across the region. This is maintaining an east to southeast flow across the area. Temperatures remain very warm in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s, keeping the night very muggy. This evening`s sounding revealed that we remain just under the 10th percentile for PWat on this date for 00Z. Despite that, the boundary layer remains moist enough to support the occasional shower. While we have a good layer of instability, it is mostly located above the boundary layer and therefore lightning will be very limited. Given that we are seeing a slight uptick in winds tonight, coupled with nocturnal showers starting to develop upstream of us, have decided to keep slight chance PoPs (10 percent) for the overnight. Therefore, no changes needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The weakened western flank of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys. This will result in light broadly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. The ridge will strengthen modestly as it lifts towards Central Florida. As a result, marine winds will nudge upwards slightly. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions expected at both island terminals through the overnight and into Thursday morning. Surface winds will remain light to gentle from the east and southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239808 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:12 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 901 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A fairly quiet afternoon with most of the activity pushing inland earlier this afternoon. Most of the activity has now dissipated with only a handful of showers and storms lingering. This trend should continue with calm conditions anticipated overnight. Lows will remain warm with most ares only dropping to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Meanwhile, the surface ridge axis situated in south Florida will keep southwesterly flow, and guiding showers storms. During the morning hours some convection should develop over the Gulf waters and move into the coast. As the day progresses, showers and storms will become more scattered to numerous, proceeding and focusing inland and east during the afternoon/evening. Heat Advisory conditions will continue on Thursday. No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A handful of storms remain over interior areas, but should dissipate during the next few hours. VFR conditions are anticipated overnight with a slight chance of showers to develop in the morning near TPA/PIE/SRQ. West to southwesterly winds prevail so if any were to develop, they will push inland into the afternoon. Highest rain chances expected over the interior and there is some uncertainty on whether or not slightly drier air may limit storms across SWFL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 94 82 94 / 10 30 10 30 FMY 79 95 79 95 / 20 30 20 50 GIF 78 96 79 96 / 20 50 10 50 SRQ 80 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 75 94 76 94 / 10 30 0 30 SPG 82 91 81 91 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1239807 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:54 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 848 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by later Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 845 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Mild and dry tonight with lows in the mid 70s. Calm and quiet wx this evening across the local area. A cold front is situated to our N/NW, extending from the central CONUS through the Great Lakes and northern New England. High pressure remains well offshore. The flow aloft is westerly with a decaying ridge just offshore of the GA/FL coast and a broad trough over eastern Canada. Convection has remained W of the area this afternoon and evening and expect continuing dry conditions through tonight. Cannot rule out some patchy fog over the Piedmont, but confidence in this scenario is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Another mild night with lows in the mid 70s, under a partly cloudy sky. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon ahead of a southward-moving cold front. - Some chance of showers and thunderstorms continues into Friday, but decrease by Saturday. For tomorrow, primarily zonal flow will be across the area with a weak shortwave trough moving through in the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching the area before stalling just to the north of the CWA. Ahead of the front, a hot and humid airmass will be building into place with highs in the lower 90s and dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will cause heat index values again to be between 100 and 104 across the area, though this is just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. In addition to the heat, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, though model guidance continues to be inconsistent on the timing of showers and thunderstorms. As of this forecast update the best timing will be in the afternoon to evening hours of tomorrow. Some of these showers and storms maybe severe as ML cape values will be between 1500 and 2000 J/kg and strong lower- level lapse rates will be in place. However, there will be weak bulk shear of 25kt (normal in this summertime pattern) that will help keep the severity of storms down. The main threat with these storms will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. This heavy rain fall could potentially cause a risk of localized flash flooding. At this time a flood watch has not been issued due to the high flash flood guidance across the area. By Friday high pressure will be moving out of Canada and helping to reinforce the cold front that will eventually push through the area. By the afternoon of Friday the cold front will be over the area causing a strong temperature gradient. Across the north high temperatures will be in the middle to lower 80s. While to the south the airmass will be warmer and more humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Index values will be approaching 100 south of the front primarily in NE NC. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will also continue on Friday. However, it is yet truly unclear on where these showers and thunderstorms will initiate due to two factors. Where the frontal boundary is and where a potential outflow boundary from the previous night will be located. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon/evening of Friday. Saturday the front should be through the area and the chances of showers and storms will have diminished. The overall weather conditions for Saturday look to be promising especially for this time of year. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s under partly cloudy skies. There will also be breezy conditions Saturday especially along the coast with with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - More pleasant weather is expected to continue through the early portions of next week. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase by early next week. Latest ensemble guidance is in decent agreement through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Weak troughing aloft will be centered over portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River valley that will bring in cooler temperatures through much of the extended forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the area Sunday through Monday bringing dry conditions with dews in the lower to middle 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. This will be some much needed relief from the heat and humidity. However, temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions should persist through most of tonight and Thursday. One exception could come from early morning fog but most guidance keeps reduced VSBY confined to the Piedmont, away from the TAF sites. A light S wind is expected tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt a couple hrs after sunrise Thursday. SCT cumulus develop Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, along w/ gradually thickening mid-high clouds. Scattered to numerous showers and storms also develop and move into the area in the afternoon and especially the evening. At this time, the bulk of activity appears to be after 21z...so will handle (for now) with PROB30 groups at RIC and SBY, with some refinement likely in future updates. Activity should shift S/SE toward PHF/ORF/ECG eventually, but most likely after 00z Friday. Outlook: Fog/low stratus may develop Thu night in the wake of the precipitation. As a cold front remains near the area, showers/storms potentially linger into Friday with with locally degraded flight conditions and gusty winds, especially for the SE VA and NE NC terminals. Predominantly VFR prevails for the weekend into early next week as drier air filters in behind the front. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub Small Craft conditions persist today and Thursday. - Widespread SCA conditions expected Friday into the weekend as a strong cold front crosses the region. High pressure remains in control of the local weather this afternoon with S and SE winds 5-10 kt. Waves and seas remain nearly flat at around 1 foot. Weak synoptic forcing results in some sea/bay breeze enhancement to the SE winds (10-15 kt) late this afternoon, mainly across the southern Ches Bay and adjacent Atlantic waters. Southerly flow to start the day Thursday becomes SE ~15 kt by the afternoon as the surface cold front approaches the region from the NW. Latest guidance continues to show a line of stronger convection moving into the waters by tomorrow evening with locally enhanced winds/waves/seas in an around thunderstorms. These threats will be covered by MWS/SMWs as necessary. Guidance suggests the front will slow its progression through the area Thursday night with a continued threat for showers and storms, though widespread severe weather is not expected overnight. Stronger cold advection will lag the frontal passage by 6-12 hours with winds becoming N and eventually NE 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Friday night. Strong NE flow continues with winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Ches Bay/rivers/Sound and 25-30 kt with a few gust to 35 kt possible for the Atlantic coastal waters on Saturday. Local wind probabilities for gusts exceeding 34 kt increase to ~20-30% for the coastal waters but sustained 34 kt winds or frequent gusts above gale thresholds are very unlikely this time of year. Will continue to monitor this period in subsequent forecast, however. Waves increase to 3-5 ft (highest near the mouth) with seas building to 5-8 ft during this period. SCA conditions likely persist for the bay and coastal waters well into Sunday with seas forecast to remain above 5 ft into early next week. Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Thursday and Friday with a Moderate Rip risk expected on Saturday as seas build. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239806 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:48 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 835 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The main changes to tonight`s forecast were adjusting rain chances, sky cover, and hourly temperatures to account for evening convective trends. Lingering showers with isolated thunderstorms should diminish and/or exit north of the Tri-State area over the next couple hrs or so. A mostly quiet night is expected, though some localized shower development closer and I-10 are possible. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Another heat advisory is in place for tomorrow afternoon, but with increasing cloud cover as storms across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle get going, advisory conditions are expected to be confined to our FL counties and first row of southern GA counties. Mid-level dry air will be intruding across the eastern half of the region, with the best PWATs across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle leading to the best chances for showers and storms being there. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Heading into the weekend a cold front looks to dip down across the Southeast as high pressure and the upper-level ridge breaks down. Every day we`ll see increasing chances for showers and storms as southerly flow advects moisture across the region, mixing out the dry mid-level air we`re currently experiencing. PWATs look to be around 2 to 2.5 inches leading to concerns of flash flooding over areas that have seen continuous rainfall over the last few days or areas with poor drainage. The front looks to sag Saturday into Sunday which could lead to training storms, further enhancing these concerns. By Monday the cold front moves on and PWATs drop to 1.5 to 2 inches leading to more usual summertime convective activity. The WPC maintains marginal and slight risks of excessive rainfall this weekend. Daytime temps look to remain below advisory level after this weekend. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the 90s until Saturday, by Sunday daytime highs look to dip into the upper 80s. Expect overnight lows to generally remain in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Isolated thunderstorms aim to affect ABY the most over the next couple hrs with another hr of thunder potentially impacting remaining sites. Convection should wane thereafter. Otherwise, expect VFR conds this evening. There is a brief window of MVFR cigs at DHN/ABY for which a TEMPO group is in place to acct in the 9-12 time frame. Introduced PROB30s for -TSRA at all but VLD beginning around 18Z. Best confidence is ECP/DHN. Southwest winds generally below 10 kts prevail away from storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 PM Observations: Panama City Tide Station (8729108) - sustained WSW wind 7 kts. Panama City Beach Tide Station (8729210) - sustained SW wind 6 kts. West Tampa Buoy (42036) - sustained SW wind near 12 kts with 1-2-ft seas and a dominant period of 3 seconds. CWF Synopsis: Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become more numerous as we head into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that will be the primary weather concern for folks outside through the week. Rain chances will remain relatively low through Thursday as drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but dispersions will begin to creep up over the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 94 77 95 / 10 40 10 60 Panama City 81 91 81 92 / 10 40 20 60 Dothan 75 92 76 94 / 30 40 20 70 Albany 77 95 76 95 / 60 30 20 60 Valdosta 77 96 76 97 / 10 20 10 40 Cross City 78 93 76 94 / 10 20 0 30 Apalachicola 82 89 80 90 / 20 30 10 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127- 128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115. GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ155>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239804 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 805 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hazardous heat continues today and into late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM today across all of east central Florida for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. Have issued a Heat Advisor for Osceola to Brevard counties northward for Thursday from noon until 7 PM for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. - Shower and storm chances will be near-normal through mid to late week (30-50%), especially over the interior, with rain chances then increasing through the weekend into early next week (up to 50-70%). && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight... Mid level ridge will build over the Florida peninsula today, continuing the hazardous heat conditions across the local area. Surface high pressure will remain over the region, producing light S/SW flow across ECFL today. Winds will back SE behind the east coast sea breeze this afternoon, with the sea breeze moving inland a little slower than yesterday. The main story today will continue to be the heat. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 90s, and combined with the humidity, will produce peak heat indices of 108 to 112 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida until 7 PM. Forecast sounding shows moisture continuing to increase today, with values rising to 1.8-2.0". This will support a gradual increase in convection today, which will help bring some relief to the heat later in the afternoon and evening. There is a medium (30-50 percent) chance of showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers are forecast to develop along the sea breeze, closer to the coast than yesterday, as it pushes inland this afternoon. The greatest potential for storms, however, will be west of I-95 and inland this afternoon into evening, where hi-res guidance continues to show late day boundary collisions occurring. Models are indicating that some of this activity will have the potential to push back towards the coast into the evening, mainly north of the Treasure Coast. The 15Z XMR sounding once again shows some lingering dry air aloft, with a DCAPE value around 1000 J/kg (which is similar to what the forecast sounds have been showing). Because of this, storms that form today will continue to have the potential to become strong. Main storm threats today will be frequent lightning, strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches leading to minor flooding. Any lingering activity later in the evening will dissipate or move offshore, leaving mostly dry conditions across east central Florida overnight. Conditions will continue to be warm and muggy tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid-level ridge across Florida will move slowly westward into late week, with hazardous heat persisting. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 105-110 degrees. Have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of ECFL, mainly from Osceola to Brevard Counties northward, from noon until 7 PM on Thursday. An additional heat advisories will likely be needed for portions, if not all, of east central Florida on Friday. However, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop each afternoon and evening (rain chances ~30-50 percent), bringing some relief to the heat later in the day. Some stronger storms will still be possible each day, with the main threats continuing to be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding. Greatest storm coverage will still focus west of I-95, with convection winding down into late evening. Mostly dry conditions then forecast during the overnight hours, while remaining warm and muggy, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A front will push southward into north Florida during the weekend and linger north of the area through early next week. This will lead to increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, with PoPs up to 50-70 percent each afternoon/evening. This will help bring some relief to the ongoing heat wave, but highs will still be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will still remain elevated, but look to largely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, around 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Rest of today-Sunday.... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through the weekend, with hot and humid conditions persisting. High pressure axis will generally remain south of the area through the period. This will result in WSW winds dominating each day before backing to the southeast each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Wind speeds will generally remain below 15 KT. Seas 1-2 ft in the nearshore waters and up to 3 ft at times in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop over the waters each day, especially during the morning and overnight hours. However, because of the weak offshore steering flow today, some storms may push back toward the coast and just offshore late this afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 758 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Lingering boundary collisions and instability from today`s heat will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through 02Z, so VCSH & VCTS has been maintained for select sites. Overall, we "rinse and repeat" on Thursday with another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop. Storm chances at individual terminals range from 30 (coastal) to 50 (inland) percent. For now, VCTS has been added beginning at 20Z for KSFB- KMCO-KISM corridor where late day boundary collisions are most likely. Will monitor for initial storm development (17-19Z) just west of the Treasure Coast terminals (KVRB-KSUA) as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 94 77 94 / 30 40 10 30 MCO 78 95 79 96 / 30 50 10 50 MLB 78 93 79 92 / 20 40 10 40 VRB 75 93 76 93 / 20 40 10 40 LEE 78 95 78 95 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 79 96 79 96 / 30 50 10 40 ORL 79 96 79 96 / 30 50 10 50 FPR 75 93 74 93 / 20 40 10 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239803 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 818 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore through the rest of the work week, a trough of low pressure will continue to press inland. A cold front may stall nearby this weekend and promote heavy to excessive rainfall across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... KCLX detected a large outflow boundary pushing NE across the forecast area around 815 PM. This boundary will likely trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the evening. The updated forecast will feature adjustments to hourly PoP/Wx and align with recent observations. Recent runs of the HRRR and 12z HREF indicates that isolated convection may linger through much of tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As this subtropical ridge weakens, multiple shortwaves aloft will carve out an upper-lvl trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a reasonably strong cold front for early August will start to push into the region at the leading edge of this aforementioned upper-lvl trough. Ample moisture and instability will promote heavy to excessive rainfall in showers and/or thunderstorms that could cause localized flash flooding. In addition, WPC has placed the region under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday. In regard to temperatures, expect highs to reach into the mid to upper 90s on Thursday and Friday with dewpoints ranging in the mid to upper 70s. A Heat Advisory was issued for tomorrow (11AM to 8PM EDT)for counties along and east of I-95 as heat indices are expected to reach into the 108 to 112 degrees range. Friday could warrant another Heat Advisory, however showers and/or thunderstorms might limit afternoon heating. As this cold front continues to drop southeastward across the region, temperatures will finally cool down on Saturday, with highs only reaching into the mid 80s to low 90s under cloudy skies. This will be enough to limit heating Saturday, and an additional Heat Advisory may not be needed. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This wet and unsettled pattern will continue through the early next week as this cold front stalls nearby and meanders along the coastline. With PWATs 2.0+ inches and decent instability sticking around, scattered convection across the region should be maintained. Periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible within these showers and/or thunderstorms that track over an area for an extended period of time. Confidence still remains low if the flash flooding will be enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Additionally, WPC continues to show 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across our area on the 7-day QPF forecast, with the majority of these values falling Saturday through Monday. On a positive note, this pattern will allow for a refreshing change of cooler temperatures through early next week with highs only reaching into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Prior to the 0Z TAFs: KCLX detected a outflow boundary approaching KSAV from the NW. It is possible that an isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm may develop along the boundary as it passes near KSAV through 1Z, highlighted with a mention of VCSH. The rest of the night is forecast to remain dry with a light south wind. During the early daylight hours Thursday morning, winds are forecast to increase from the west between 5 to 10 kts. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop along the coast by 19Z, pushing inland through the rest of the afternoon. KJZI may see south winds increase to 1o to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt by 19Z. HREF and recent runs of the HRRR indicates that KCHS may see thunderstorms over or near the terminal between 20-24z, highlighted with a TEMPO. Extended Aviation Forecast: The risk for flight restrictions due to showers/tstms will persist each afternoon/evening with chances ramping up over the weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: Southerly winds will veer to the southwest overnight. Speeds will remain less than 15 kt with seas 1-3 ft. Thursday through Sunday: Expect southerly winds at 10 to 15 kt through Friday, with winds turning to the northeast over the weekend as a reasonably strong cold front for early August stalls nearby over the weekend. It could become gusty over the weekend (mainly on Sunday afternoon) across the nearshore South Carolina waters as the gradient pinches behind the cold front. Expect seas to be 2 to 3 ft, and then begin to build 3 to 5 ft on Sunday (mainly across South Carolina nearshore waters). Otherwise, no marine concerns. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 31: KCHS: 80/2022 KSAV: 80/2010 August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ047>052. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239802 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 804 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A handful of storms remain over interior areas, but should dissipate during the next few hours. VFR conditions are anticipated overnight with a slight chance of showers to develop in the morning near TPA/PIE/SRQ. West to southwesterly winds prevail so if any were to develop, they will push inland into the afternoon. Highest rain chances expected over the interior and there is some uncertainty on whether or not slightly drier air may limit storms across SWFL. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The surface ridge axis will remain across south Florida through early next week with a weakening cool front moving into the southeast states and eventually stalling across north Florida over the weekend. The rather hot weather will continue through Thursday and have issued another Heat Advisory for the Nature Coast south through the Interstate 4 corridor for Thursday afternoon and early evening. Plenty of moisture will remain across the area through the period for isolated to scattered late night and morning convection over the coastal waters and near the coast each day moving inland and becoming scattered to numerous over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening. The pattern begins to change early next week with a more southeast flow setting up by midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 83 94 82 / 30 10 30 10 FMY 94 79 95 79 / 30 20 30 20 GIF 97 78 96 79 / 50 20 50 10 SRQ 93 80 93 79 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 94 75 94 76 / 40 10 30 0 SPG 91 82 91 81 / 20 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1239800 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Update will be issued after the top of the hour to eliminate this afternoon`s Heat Advisory. Much of the afternoon convection has moved west of the Atchafalaya or dissipated, but there has been some redevelopment over south Mississippi and over the coastal waters, so it is likely to be several hours before we can eliminate precipitation chances or scale them back considerably. Have massaged hourly temperature/dew point grids to address cooling from thunderstorms, and will probably need to do so again in the next couple of hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Convective coverage has remained mainly over the coastal Gulf waters this morning has convective turnover has yet to occur today. The surface high continues to push off to the southwest over the northwestern Gulf as its associated ridge moves westward across the southern part of the Pecos River Valley in southwest Texas. A tropical wave has moved westward across the northern Gulf Coast and is currently situated across the eastern half of our area where an axis of higher PW around 2.2 inches reside. According to CAMs, it looks like convective turnover onto land will occur in the next 3 hours around 3p when the convective temperature is reached in the mid-90s. The holdoff of convection over land has led to dangerous heat across the area as multiple locations have topped 108 degrees by noon today as the higher moisture content lingers around here. However, when we do start to pop convection over land, high PW combined with very high CAPE of 3500 MLCAPE and 5500+ SBCAPE and 900-1100 j/kg of DCAPE, wet microbursts will be likely with any stronger storms today. Damaging winds seems to be the only threat today as the the freezing level remains exceptionally high above 15,500 feet, meaning it would take a very strong core to make it abnormally high to produce severe hail at the surface after melting below the freezing level. Any convection that forms across the area should dissipate by 10-11pm tonight as we lose daylight heating and we return to an unusually muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Ridging over the northeastern Gulf will expand westward more into our area on Thursday which will help keep temps elevated in the mid 90s. CAMs suggest that convection over land tomorrow will not occur until later in the day around 3p-4p. So, since we`ll be allowed to heat up through at least the early afternoon, dangerous heat will be on the table again for tomorrow as the elevated moisture remains across the area. Mid 90s temps coupled with dew points in the mid to upper 70s will lead to heat indices near 110 degrees. This many days with dangerous heat will only add to the compounding heat stress. When convection does fire tomorrow afternoon/evening, the parameters will largely be the same as today, maybe just slightly lower DCAPE, so isolated wet microbursts will be a concern tomorrow afternoon and evening as well. Once again, the freezing level looks to be too high to have any concerns with severe hail. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Uncertainty seems to pick up in the medium range guidance as we get into Friday and the weekend. Models generally agree that a weak boundary associated with troughing across the Great Lakes region will push down from the north at some point this weekend into the mid to lower MS Valley. Questions still remain on when (as early as Friday and as late as Sunday) and how far down the boundary makes it. Just solely based off of climatology, it`s tough for fronts to make it all the way down here in late July and early August, so its doubtful that it will make it all the way into our area. However, there is enough guidance hinting at it that it could be a real possibility. If it were to make it down here, it`ll primarily give us a break from the humid conditions and give us lows in the low 70s and upper 60s. If not, we`ll just stay in the same summertime regime with hot and humid conditions and daily summertime convection. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Most convection, but not all, as moved away from terminals, but will be a few more hours before it can be eliminated completely. Looks like most convection tomorrow will be during the afternoon, with less areal coverage than today. Will use PROB30 for now and will reassess for 06z package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure will continue to steadily build west, allowing for an increase in mainly early morning through mid-morning shower and storm activity. Within any one strong or severe storm, strong wind gusts, waterspouts and enhanced wave/sea activity can be expected. Otherwise, conditions will remain mainly calm outside of storm activity going into the weekend with light winds and waves/seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 95 74 94 / 40 60 40 70 BTR 76 96 76 95 / 50 60 40 70 ASD 75 94 76 94 / 40 70 30 70 MSY 79 96 80 95 / 40 70 30 80 GPT 78 93 78 94 / 40 60 40 70 PQL 77 94 77 93 / 40 60 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239799 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 737 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore through the rest of the work week, a trough of low pressure will continue to press inland. A cold front may stall nearby this weekend and promote heavy to excessive rainfall across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Instability is slowly building over the area this afternoon. Isolated to scattered convection continues to percolate across parts of the Charleston Tri-County along several mesoscale boundaries, but coverage should slowly ramp up and refocus inland as the afternoon progresses. NBM pops around 70% across the interior may be a bit high based on some of the latest CAMS, but these were mostly maintained as it does not really impact our local messaging that the tstm main risks for this afternoon/evening continue to center on locally heavy rainfall/minor flooding and a few strong tstms. Not uncommon for deep summer, an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds from wet microbursts can not be completely ruled out. Convection will slowly wind down through the evening hours, but lingering outflow boundaries and warm/moist conditions could support some degree of convection overnight, similar to what occurred last night. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s well inland to the upper 70s/lower 80s at the coast and beaches. As for the Heat Advisory, heat indices are nearing the 108 mark across parts of Southeast Georgia up into the Beaufort County area. Even up in Charleston where convection has been off and on for the past few hours, some locations are already seeing heat indices near 110. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 8 PM as it is currently defined, but some clearing of counties may be needed later this afternoon as convection expands. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As this subtropical ridge weakens, multiple shortwaves aloft will carve out an upper-lvl trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a reasonably strong cold front for early August will start to push into the region at the leading edge of this aforementioned upper-lvl trough. Ample moisture and instability will promote heavy to excessive rainfall in showers and/or thunderstorms that could cause localized flash flooding. In addition, WPC has placed the region under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday. In regard to temperatures, expect highs to reach into the mid to upper 90s on Thursday and Friday with dewpoints ranging in the mid to upper 70s. A Heat Advisory was issued for tomorrow (11AM to 8PM EDT)for counties along and east of I-95 as heat indices are expected to reach into the 108 to 112 degrees range. Friday could warrant another Heat Advisory, however showers and/or thunderstorms might limit afternoon heating. As this cold front continues to drop southeastward across the region, temperatures will finally cool down on Saturday, with highs only reaching into the mid 80s to low 90s under cloudy skies. This will be enough to limit heating Saturday, and an additional Heat Advisory may not be needed. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This wet and unsettled pattern will continue through the early next week as this cold front stalls nearby and meanders along the coastline. With PWATs 2.0+ inches and decent instability sticking around, scattered convection across the region should be maintained. Periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible within these showers and/or thunderstorms that track over an area for an extended period of time. Confidence still remains low if the flash flooding will be enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Additionally, WPC continues to show 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across our area on the 7-day QPF forecast, with the majority of these values falling Saturday through Monday. On a positive note, this pattern will allow for a refreshing change of cooler temperatures through early next week with highs only reaching into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Prior to the 0Z TAFs: KCLX detected a outflow boundary approaching KSAV from the NW. It is possible that an isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm may develop along the boundary as it passes near KSAV through 1Z, highlighted with a mention of VCSH. The rest of the night is forecast to remain dry with a light south wind. During the early daylight hours Thursday morning, winds are forecast to increase from the west between 5 to 10 kts. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop along the coast by 19Z, pushing inland through the rest of the afternoon. KJZI may see south winds increase to 1o to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt by 19Z. HREF and recent runs of the HRRR indicates that KCHS may see thunderstorms over or near the terminal between 20-24z, highlighted with a TEMPO. Extended Aviation Forecast: The risk for flight restrictions due to showers/tstms will persist each afternoon/evening with chances ramping up over the weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: Southerly winds will veer to the southwest overnight. Speeds will remain less than 15 kt with seas 1-3 ft. Thursday through Sunday: Expect southerly winds at 10 to 15 kt through Friday, with winds turning to the northeast over the weekend as a reasonably strong cold front for early August stalls nearby over the weekend. It could become gusty over the weekend (mainly on Sunday afternoon) across the nearshore South Carolina waters as the gradient pinches behind the cold front. Expect seas to be 2 to 3 ft, and then begin to build 3 to 5 ft on Sunday (mainly across South Carolina nearshore waters). Otherwise, no marine concerns. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 31: KCHS: 80/2022 KSAV: 80/2010 August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101- 114>119-137>141. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ047>052. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ047>052. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239798 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure is expected to dominate over the region through the middle of next week, which will result in hot and precipitation-free conditions with heat risk concerns, especially heading into the weekend and early next week. Heat indices could exceed 111 degrees in some areas between Friday and Monday, which could potentially warrant heat advisories on these days. Current guidance is showing that inland portions of the eastern counties (particularly Kenedy and Willacy) are most likely to be impacted by potential heat advisories, since the humidity will be higher in these areas due to coastal proximity. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s/lower 100s through the middle of next week. Low temperatures will consistently be in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will diurnally cycle between being more southerly during the day and more southeasterly overnight, but should remain light to moderate. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Primarily VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Winds becoming light and variable overnight, with a low chance (<20%) of shallow fog bringing MVFR to IFR vsby/cigs around sunrise at HRL and BRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle, favorable seas are expected through the middle of next week with light to moderate south-southeasterly winds and low wave heights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 96 79 96 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 98 75 99 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 78 102 79 102 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 80 88 / 0 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 78 95 / 0 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239797 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 731 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Another heat advisory is in place for tomorrow afternoon, but with increasing cloud cover as storms across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle get going, advisory conditions are expected to be confined to our FL counties and first row of southern GA counties. Mid-level dry air will be intruding across the eastern half of the region, with the best PWATs across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle leading to the best chances for showers and storms being there. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Heading into the weekend a cold front looks to dip down across the Southeast as high pressure and the upper-level ridge breaks down. Every day we`ll see increasing chances for showers and storms as southerly flow advects moisture across the region, mixing out the dry mid-level air we`re currently experiencing. PWATs look to be around 2 to 2.5 inches leading to concerns of flash flooding over areas that have seen continuous rainfall over the last few days or areas with poor drainage. The front looks to sag Saturday into Sunday which could lead to training storms, further enhancing these concerns. By Monday the cold front moves on and PWATs drop to 1.5 to 2 inches leading to more usual summertime convective activity. The WPC maintains marginal and slight risks of excessive rainfall this weekend. Daytime temps look to remain below advisory level after this weekend. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the 90s until Saturday, by Sunday daytime highs look to dip into the upper 80s. Expect overnight lows to generally remain in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Isolated thunderstorms aim to affect ABY the most over the next couple hrs with another hr of thunder potentially impacting remaining sites. Convection should wane thereafter. Otherwise, expect VFR conds this evening. There is a brief window of MVFR cigs at DHN/ABY for which a TEMPO group is in place to acct in the 9-12 time frame. Introduced PROB30s for -TSRA at all but VLD beginning around 18Z. Best confidence is ECP/DHN. Southwest winds generally below 10 kts prevail away from storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become more numerous as we head into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that will be the primary weather concern for folks outside through the week. Rain chances will remain relatively low through Thursday as drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but dispersions will begin to creep up over the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 94 77 95 / 10 40 10 60 Panama City 81 91 81 92 / 10 40 20 60 Dothan 76 92 76 94 / 20 40 20 70 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 20 30 20 60 Valdosta 75 96 76 97 / 10 20 10 40 Cross City 77 93 76 94 / 0 20 0 30 Apalachicola 81 89 80 90 / 0 30 10 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127- 128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115. GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ155>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239796 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 733 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Continued hot and humid conditions this afternoon, along with lower rainfall chances as high pressure ridging aloft builds in from the West and PWATs have fallen below 2 inches. These conditions will lead to a slower start to the Gulf coast sea breeze in the Southwest steering flow which will start to develop scattered showers and storms over inland areas by the early-mid afternoon hours which will slowly track towards the Northeast around 10 mph and reach the East Coast sea breeze along the I-95/US-17 corridors by the late afternoon/early evening hours with some strong storms possible with gusty winds to 40-60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall/flooding threat due to the slow storm movement. This activity should push offshore around sunset with mainly dry and humid conditions for the overnight hours, before the Southwest flow helps to develop isolated showers and storms along the FL Big Bend/NE Gulf which may track into inland NE FL around sunrise. Temps will remain at above normal levels this afternoon with the late start to convection with widespread highs into the mid/upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the Atlantic Beaches, with peak heat indices around 110F and current heat advisory in place looks good. Low temps only fall into the mid/upper 70s inland tonight, and around 80F along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Airmass remains too warm and relatively mixed for any significant fog late tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Thursday, with the ridge extending across south FL. A trough of low pressure will located across the southeastern US Thursday. The prevailing low level flow will be from the southwest between these two features. While weak ridging over the region will help to suppress convection, the combination of diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions will keep isolated to scattered storms in the forecast. There could be an increase in convection near the east coast during the afternoon, as the Gulf sea breeze meets up with the east coast sea breeze near the I95 corridor. Temperatures will continue above seasonal averages. Due to Gulf sea breeze, highs will range from the mid 90s inland, to mid to upper 90s east. A heat advisory has been issued for Thursday, due to combination of hot temperatures and high humidity. The high center will move further away to the southeast Friday, as the trough digs along the southeastern US coast. Lows in the mid 70s will be common, except upper 70s coast. The trough will remain along the southeastern US coast, extending across SE GA. Weak lows may form in this trough Friday. Precipitation chances will begin to increase on Friday as convergence associated with troughing works along with diurnal heating and increasing moisture. Convective activity will diminish with loss of heating Friday night. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 90s expected with lows Friday night in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The trough axis will sink to near the GA/FL line on Saturday. The chance for storms, some possible strong to severe, will increase with the boundary overhead. With the expected precipitation and cloud coverage, temperatures will be a little lower, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Showers with isolated storms may linger into Saturday night, due to the trough, with lows in the middle 70s. On Sunday and Monday, the trough will lay out across northern FL, with high pressure building to the northwest. Precipitation chances will remain on the high side, with potential for strong to severe storms continuing. With the boundary across FL, cooler air will move south into SE GA, so highs will range from the mid to upper 80s over SE GA, to the lower 90s over NE FL. With the trough in place, convective chances lingering into the overnights can not be ruled out. Lows in the mid 70s will be common Sunday night and Monday night. The trough weakens Tuesday into Wednesday, as high pressure builds toward the east. While precipitation chances will remain above normal, the potential will be lower than over the weekend. Temperatures will be near to a little above average. The flow is not very strong this period, so storms which form will likely move fairly slow, leading to potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Lingering showers and storms along the sea breeze collision along I-95 will end and shift offshore by 02Z. CRG will still have MVFR conditions for the next hour as another storm comes up from the south. VFR conditions with light SW winds continue through much of the period. Less coverage for rain on Thursday with less than 30 percent chance for all TAF sites. The Atlantic sea breeze will remain pinned to the coast and shift inland later in the day shifting winds to SSE for coastal TAF sites after 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A trough of low pressure near the Georgia waters will lift northward today as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. This regime will then change little through at least Friday, which will result in a light offshore wind at night and a developing sea breeze during the daytime each day. A frontal boundary will approach the local waters from the north late Friday, with a surge of South to Southwest winds close to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday Night. This frontal boundary will stall just north of the Georgia waters for the weekend, resulting in an active weather pattern and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate rip current risk through the end of the week with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 102/2010 102/1999 102/1999 Gainesville, FL 100/1896 100/1892 100/1896 Craig Airport, FL 101/2010 101/1999 101/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 101/1961 102/1999 100/1999 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 81/1872 78/1941 82/1873 Gainesville, FL 78/2010 77/2011 77/1893 Craig Airport, FL 80/2010 79/2011 79/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/1999 77/1999 77/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 97 76 97 / 30 20 10 40 SSI 80 95 80 96 / 20 20 10 20 JAX 77 98 77 99 / 30 30 10 30 SGJ 78 95 77 96 / 30 20 0 20 GNV 76 96 75 96 / 0 20 0 30 OCF 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233- 236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239795 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. - Borderline elevated fire weather this afternoon/evening over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Limited by weak winds. - Low rain chances return Thursday into early next week, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The mid-level ridge centered over Texas today will shift westward while an inverted mid-level trough over the northwest Gulf shifts over the Texas Coast tonight. This trough will increase moisture (75th percentile) and provide plenty of PVA as it moves westward over South Texas Thursday and Thursday night, warranting a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. In wake of the inverted trough moving westward, a zonal shortwave stretching from the southern Great Plains to East Coast will sag southward and lead to northerly flow aloft and near to above normal moisture into early next week. Another high pressure system looks to filter into New Mexico heading into the middle of next week. A daily very low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will be focused over the Victoria Crossroads. Dry conditions with relative humidity falling below 30% over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon and early evening enhances the fire weather risk, but light winds limit the threat. Heat will remain the greatest concern across South Texas with a daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts and max heat indices nearing 110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Currently have VFR conditions across South Texas. Overnight, have IFR to possibly LIFR conditions from 08Z-14Z for eastern terminals. After which, VFR conditions return. Winds overnight will be light and variable returning south to southeast tomorrow afternoon. There`s low chances for some isolated showers in the late morning to afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) variable flow is expected to continue through this evening before becoming a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southwesterly to southeasterly flow Thursday through early next week. There is a low 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into early next week mainly over the offshore waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 97 76 97 / 0 20 10 0 Victoria 74 99 76 99 / 0 20 10 10 Laredo 78 104 78 104 / 0 20 20 0 Alice 73 101 74 101 / 0 20 10 10 Rockport 80 93 80 92 / 0 20 10 0 Cotulla 77 104 79 103 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 74 98 74 98 / 0 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 80 90 80 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239794 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 733 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather will continue to persist through tomorrow, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely tomorrow and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and Humid conditions will prevail through tomorrow. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow across the area. While at the surface high pressure continues to remain overhead continuing to bring in the hot and humid airmass. Temperatures this afternoon are in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast. Dew points have remained steady in the lower to middle 70s throughout this afternoon making the Heat Index values to be between 100 and 104. Sky cover remains partly clear as fair weather cumulus have developed across the area. Showers and storms have developed across the higher terrain but should remain confines just to the west of the CWA. There is a slight chance that a shower may come off the high terrain to the far NW continues later this afternoon and evening. As the sun sets this evening, the sky`s will begin to clear as the cumulus deteriorate due to the loss of daytime heating. The warm and muggy conditions will continue through the night. Low temperatures will be in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coastline. For tomorrow, primarily zonal flow will be across the area with a weak shortwave trough moving through in the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching the area before stalling just to the north of the CWA. Ahead of the front a hot and humid airmass will be building into place with highs in the lower 90s and dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will cause Heat Index values again to be between 100 and 104 across the area just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. Despite not having a Heat Advisory it will still be hot and humid outside. In addition to the heat there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Model guidance continues to be inconsistent on the timing of showers and thunderstorms. As of this forecast update the best timing will be in the afternoon to evening hours of tomorrow. Some of these showers and storms maybe severe as ML cape values will be between 1500 and 2000 J/kg and strong lower-level lapse rates will be in place. However, there will be weak bulk shear of 25kt (normal in this summertime pattern) that will help keep the severity of storms down. The main threat with these storms will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. This heavy rain fall could potentially cause a risk of localized flash flooding.At this time a flood watch has not been issued due to the high flash flood guidance across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold front moves across the area leading to cooler temperatures in the north and warmer temperatures in the south. -Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday but decrease by Saturday. By Friday high pressure will be moving out of Canada and helping to reinforce the cold front that will eventually push through the area. By the afternoon of Friday the cold front will be over the area causing a strong temperature gradient. Across the north high temperatures will be in the middle to lower 80s. While to the south the airmass will be warmer and more humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Index values will be approaching 100 south of the front primarily in NE NC. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will also continue on Friday. However, it is yet truly unclear on where these showers and thunderstorms will initiate due to two factors. Where the frontal boundary is and where a potential outflow boundary from the previous night will be located. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon/evening of Friday. Saturday the front should be through the area and the chances of showers and storms will have diminished. The overall weather conditions for Saturday look to be promising especially for this time of year. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s under partly cloudy skies. There will also be breezy conditions Saturday especially along the coast with with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - More pleasant weather is expected to continue through the early portions of next week. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase by early next week. Latest ensemble guidance is in decent agreement through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Weak troughing aloft will be centered over portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River valley that will bring in cooler temperatures through much of the extended forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the area Sunday through Monday bringing dry conditions with dews in the lower to middle 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. This will be some much needed relief from the heat and humidity. However, temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions should persist through most of tonight and Thursday. One exception could come from early morning fog but most guidance keeps reduced VSBY confined to the Piedmont, away from the TAF sites. A light S wind is expected tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt a couple hrs after sunrise Thursday. SCT cumulus develop Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, along w/ gradually thickening mid-high clouds. Scattered to numerous showers and storms also develop and move into the area in the afternoon and especially the evening. At this time, the bulk of activity appears to be after 21z...so will handle (for now) with PROB30 groups at RIC and SBY, with some refinement likely in future updates. Activity should shift S/SE toward PHF/ORF/ECG eventually, but most likely after 00z Friday. Outlook: Fog/low stratus may develop Thu night in the wake of the precipitation. As a cold front remains near the area, showers/storms potentially linger into Friday with with locally degraded flight conditions and gusty winds, especially for the SE VA and NE NC terminals. Predominantly VFR prevails for the weekend into early next week as drier air filters in behind the front. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub Small Craft conditions persist today and Thursday. - Widespread SCA conditions expected Friday into the weekend as a strong cold front crosses the region. High pressure remains in control of the local weather this afternoon with S and SE winds 5-10 kt. Waves and seas remain nearly flat at around 1 foot. Weak synoptic forcing results in some sea/bay breeze enhancement to the SE winds (10-15 kt) late this afternoon, mainly across the southern Ches Bay and adjacent Atlantic waters. Southerly flow to start the day Thursday becomes SE ~15 kt by the afternoon as the surface cold front approaches the region from the NW. Latest guidance continues to show a line of stronger convection moving into the waters by tomorrow evening with locally enhanced winds/waves/seas in an around thunderstorms. These threats will be covered by MWS/SMWs as necessary. Guidance suggests the front will slow its progression through the area Thursday night with a continued threat for showers and storms, though widespread severe weather is not expected overnight. Stronger cold advection will lag the frontal passage by 6-12 hours with winds becoming N and eventually NE 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Friday night. Strong NE flow continues with winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Ches Bay/rivers/Sound and 25-30 kt with a few gust to 35 kt possible for the Atlantic coastal waters on Saturday. Local wind probabilities for gusts exceeding 34 kt increase to ~20-30% for the coastal waters but sustained 34 kt winds or frequent gusts above gale thresholds are very unlikely this time of year. Will continue to monitor this period in subsequent forecast, however. Waves increase to 3-5 ft (highest near the mouth) with seas building to 5-8 ft during this period. SCA conditions likely persist for the bay and coastal waters well into Sunday with seas forecast to remain above 5 ft into early next week. Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Thursday and Friday with a Moderate Rip risk expected on Saturday as seas build. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239793 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 733 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unusually hot weather with high humidity will continue through Friday. A cold front should push through by Friday night bringing noticeably less hot weather for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Trough extending from weak low just off of the Cape Fear coast along with weakening mid to upper trough and pcp water values up around 2.4 inches were contributing to greater coverage of storms this afternoon. By tonight, models show this weak trough lifting north as the sfc high to the east nudges in with a steady S-SW flow developing into Thurs. May see best coverage just north and west of area on Thurs along pre-frontal trough and where best shortwave energy rides across the mid to upper trough to the north. This activity should not reach into our local area until after this period. The mid to upper ridge builds up from the south on Thurs, perhaps enough to help lessen coverage over coastal SC Thurs aftn. With that being said, confidence is fairly low due to the fact that plenty of warm and moist air exists and localized sea breeze activity is always a possibility. Temps should top 90 in most places on Thurs with dewpoints in the 70s giving way to another hot and humid day. Expect heat index values above 100 and may reach above 105 in spots for a short while, but looks like overall we should remain just below heat advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Convection may linger into the overnight hours Thursday night, particularly closer to the coast, due to continued presence of deep moisture, upper forcing, and whatever outflow boundaries may remain from earlier that day. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s. Frontal system moves through the area Friday and Friday night. This kicks up the moisture profiles even more, along with more organized forcing. Rain and thunderstorms likely Friday afternoon and evening as the front moves through. Considering the increased moisture in the layer (precipitable water values lingering in the 2.30-2.40" range), high rain rates in heavy rain may lead to a flash flooding concern in certain areas, particularly in the lowest lying areas along the coast. As such, we are in a "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/4) for excessive rainfall, per the Weather Prediction Center. Latest temperature and dewpoint data suggest that we may reach Heat Advisory criteria (again) across the area. This depends on when convective initiation really begins. If rain and clouds increase considerably by mid-late morning, this would wipe out the advisory. Will need to monitor this with time. Convection likely to continue into Friday night. Lows in the low-to-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Front lingers just offshore Saturday, while shortwave forcing sticks around, creating more chances for showers and storms in the afternoon, with the highest chances along the coast. Even so, showers and storms shouldn`t be quite as widespread, with drier air infiltrating the upper levels of the atmosphere. The most impressive part of the story here is the temperature drop. Highs Saturday only get into the lower 80s, which lingers around 10 degrees below normal in some spots. Throughout the extended period, no triple digit heat indices in sight. Highs very slowly moderate towards the upper 80s by the middle of next week. Rain chances remain decent everyday, mostly thanks to multiple shortwaves traversing through the area, while mesoscale features like the seabreeze may help things out. Cooler lows in the mid-to- upper 60s Saturday night slowly moderate into the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Convection has mostly dissipated this evening leaving plenty of debris cloudiness in its wake. Followed a pattern similar to the events of 24 hours prior...VFR conditions for several more hours with MVFR to possible IFR inland areas. At least for the moment convection looking a bit more scattered in nature Thursday. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms. Vis and low cig restrictions are possible each night through the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Variable winds driven mainly by sea breeze into early this evening and land breeze overnight will become steadier out of the S-SW into Thurs. High pressure to the east and approaching trough/cold front will tighten the gradient a bit heading into later on Thurs with winds reaching up near 10 kts or so. Thursday Night through Monday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts linger Thursday night through Friday ahead of a cold front, with seas generally at 2-3 ft. Front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, with veering winds occurring throughout. Winds finally settle on northeasterly by late Saturday morning, a trend that continues through Monday. Gradient winds increase Saturday night through Sunday, where gusts may increase up to 20-23 kts. Confidence in Small Craft Advisory thresholds have decreased, but the forecast has wavered a bit, so we`ll have to see where the trends go. For now, look for 3-4 ft waves at the coast, 4-5 waves out 20 nm offshore. Gradient decreases Sunday night through Monday, allowing gusts to dip below 20 kts, and seas decrease to 2-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239792 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hot and dry for most today. But watching thunderstorms to our east that could impact our southeast counties later today / evening - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Outlook for next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today`s weather has featured one surprise. In fact, there`s a chance you have already noticed this surprise. Dew points were forecast to be somewhat lower today than yesterday. But a lot more dry air has mixed down to the surface today than expected, allowing dew points to drop significantly. A few spots in the Brazos Valley are reporting dew points as low as the 40s! Meanwhile, dew points as low as the 50s are being reported as far south and east as Bush Airport. Feeling more like El Paso than Houston today! While the lower humidity is great, the drier air may allow temperatures to climb higher than recent days. As long as the approaching higher clouds from the east do not dampen warming too much, I suspect many inland locations will be up around 100 degrees this afternoon. The aforementioned higher clouds are associated with thunderstorm activity over the Louisiana and the Gulf. It`s not out of the questions that some of this shower and thunderstorm activity could make it into our southeastern counties this evening. We`ll be watching it closely. A mid-level disturbance over SE CONUS will bring increasing lift and moisture to the region Thursday into the weekend. Daily chances of showers/thunderstorms will gradually increase with each day through Saturday. Actual temperatures become less hot while humidity rises during this time frame. Not everyone will see a shower/thunderstorm every day. But those that do could experience locally heavy rainfall. By early next week, a strong ridge is expected to build to our west while a mid/upper trough digs southward over the Midwest. The trough axis is expected to extend southward into the lower Mississippi River Valley, and could bring enough lift to our region to keep a daily risk of showers/thunderstorms in the picture through next Tuesday. But a subtle eastward shift in the aforementioned high would bring drier and hotter conditions. A shift to the west could signal a wetter pattern. For now, the Monday-Tuesday forecast features isolated to scattered showers/storms and seasonable hot humid conditions. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the TAF period outside of any showers/storms on Thursday. Winds remain light and transition to westerly to southwesterly overnight which will keep the airmass a bit drier than usual, so patchy fog potential is on the low side once again (but not entirely impossible south of I-10 and west of I-45). Isolated showers are possible on Thursday morning moving in from the east/northeast mainly near and south of I-10. There is potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop during the afternoon hours, and this would be most likely to occur south of I-10. Winds in the afternoon hours are also expected to become southerly behind the seabreeze around or less than 10 kt. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Low seas and generally light winds expected through early next week. The daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually climb through the end of the week. Isolated thunderstorms possible over the Gulf today. Though winds and seas are expected to be low, locally much higher winds and rougher seas will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. In some cases, gusty winds can extend far from their associated thunderstorm. The highest rain and thunderstorm chances are on Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 101 77 100 / 0 10 0 20 Houston (IAH) 80 98 79 98 / 10 30 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 83 93 / 20 30 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239790 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 726 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled just south of the area will lift north this evening. A cold front will approach the area Thursday and push through the area Friday bringing greater coverage of showers and storms with the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend with the front stalled offshore bringing cooler and more pleasant conditions for the weekend, though it will remain unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Wednesday...Convection has dissipated early this evening across ENC, with just some leftover debris clouds remaining. Tonight should initially remain mostly dry, but a weak boundary and upper level energy passing by to the south should promote scattered shower and thunderstorms development offshore overnight. This activity will then build closer to land by early tomorrow morning with around a 20-40% chance of rain across the immediate coast by daybreak. Temperatures should cool into the mid to upper 70s inland, and the upper 70s to around 80s along the coast. Some patchy fog may develop along and south of US 70, coinciding with where rain was seen this earlier this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Key Message: - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall across ENC. Upper troughing develops over the eastern CONUS Thursday and shortwave energy pushes across the Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. Improving upper level support combined with southerly low-level flow bringing greater moisture with PW values increasing to around 2-2.25"+ will bring a greater coverage of storms across the FA Thursday. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall could see localized flooding, especially in areas that see training storms, and WPC has the region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for ENC. It will be hot and humid day with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values peaking around 100-105. Some locations, especially across far southern sections, could peak a couple of degrees above 105 but expected afternoon convection to keep duration of these values limited. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat late week into the start of next week - Flooding concerns Thursday and Friday Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of lower pressure across the eastern US late week. At the surface, a potent cold front will work its way across the Appalachians with pre-frontal troughing developing across the Carolinas. The cold front will take its sweet time crossing the FA on Friday, likely not moving offshore until Saturday morning. Once offshore, the front will stall through the weekend and support the development of a series of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast. This stalled boundary will then slowly lift north as a warm front on Monday and Tuesday. Good news: This FROPA will cause an air mass change, bringing an end to the oppressive heat and humidity that has plagued ENC for the past week. Bad news: the combination of the aforementioned synoptic and meso setup within a moisture loaded atmosphere is a recipe for multiple days of rain and flooding concerns. Impressive PWATs on the order of 2.25-2.75"+ will overspread the area on Thursday, gradually decreasing from north to south through Saturday as the front settles offshore, then surging again from south to north at the start of next week as the front lifts north. Moisture of this magnitude will support heavy rainfall from any cell that forms, and the slow progression of the front will increase concern for training cells. On Friday, the combination of lower CAPE, greater PWATs, and better forcing will create a greater flooding concern. WPC currently has all of ENC outlined in marginal (level 1/4) and slight (level 2/4) risks for flash flooding Friday-Saturday. The coast and areas along and south of Highway 264 are expected to see the most precip through Tuesday (2-4") with lower amounts to the north (1-2"). Locally higher amounts are possible wherever stronger and/or training cells occur. Heat advisories may still be needed for portions of the area Friday with heat indices forecast to reach around 105. Friday`s FROPA will be the swan song for this oppressive heat and humidity with highs on Saturday and Sunday staying in the low- to mid-80s and dewpoints ranging from the upper-60s to low-70s. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature difference. Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week (mid- to upper-80s). && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 8 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Increasing chances for MVFR fog and low stratus development tonight - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday VFR conditions are present across the airspace early this evening, however overnight low level cloudiness will increase as moisture advects through the boundary layer. Areas of low stratus between 2000-3000 ft are possible overnight through mid tomorrow morning. Additionally, some patchy fog may develop before sunrise in areas that saw some rain earlier this afternoon, with the best chances of seeing 3-5 mile fog along and south of US 70. Fog should dissipate soon after sunrise, but MVFR ceilings will likely hang around until mid morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions should return but increasing chances for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon will introduce the threat for sudden bouts of sub-VFR conditions in convection through tomorrow evening. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 2:50 AM Wednesday... There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through the long term, especially through the weekend when a cold front will bring heavy rainfall to the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Generally light E-SE winds less than 10 kt this afternoon with seas around 1-2 ft with 8 sec predominant period. Winds will veer to southerly overnight and then increase to 10-15 kt Thursday afternoon as gradients begin to tighten as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will continue around 1-2 ft through Thursday morning then will begin to see up to 3 ft building late in the day. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 3:10 AM Wednesday... A strong cold front will cross the waters late Friday, which will increase winds to 15-20 kt as they veer to the north. A northeasterly surge behind the front will increase winds to 20-30 kt on Saturday. Gales are possible for the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. On Sunday, northeasterly winds will gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. 1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by early Friday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from north to south Friday night into Sunday with peak heights expected Sunday afternoon. 5-10 ft seas are possible across the central waters with 4-7 ft seas across the northern and southern waters. Highest PoPs will be Friday-Saturday with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239787 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 706 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Shower activity has persisted over Collier and Hendry counties for the past several hours due to a slow steering flow from the Gulf. Short term convection models indicate that this activity should decrease by mid afternoon with additional development across the interior of the east coast counties as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. High pressure conditions will remain in place for the next few days keeping the daily weather conditions similar day to day. Southeast wind flow will aid in the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the east coast in the afternoon and across the southwest with the winds turning from the southwest. With similar dew points and high temperatures for tomorrow forecast to be around one degree lower than today, the criteria for Heat Advisory is not expected. However, safety measures should be followed if spending long periods of time outside during the day. No other changes were made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with mainly light and variable flow overnight. Southeasterly flow returns on Thursday with a chance for showers and storms across interior areas and Southwest Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 77 93 77 93 / 10 30 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 95 / 10 30 10 20 Homestead 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 81 92 / 10 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 81 96 81 96 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 93 79 93 / 20 30 10 10 Boca Raton 79 94 79 94 / 20 30 10 10 Naples 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239776 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 403 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Another heat advisory is in place for tomorrow afternoon, but with increasing cloud cover as storms across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle get going, advisory conditions are expected to be confined to our FL counties and first row of southern GA counties. Mid-level dry air will be intruding across the eastern half of the region, with the best PWATs across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle leading to the best chances for showers and storms being there. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Heading into the weekend a cold front looks to dip down across the Southeast as high pressure and the upper-level ridge breaks down. Every day we`ll see increasing chances for showers and storms as southerly flow advects moisture across the region, mixing out the dry mid-level air we`re currently experiencing. PWATs look to be around 2 to 2.5 inches leading to concerns of flash flooding over areas that have seen continuous rainfall over the last few days or areas with poor drainage. The front looks to sag Saturday into Sunday which could lead to training storms, further enhancing these concerns. By Monday the cold front moves on and PWATs drop to 1.5 to 2 inches leading to more usual summertime convective activity. The WPC maintains marginal and slight risks of excessive rainfall this weekend. Daytime temps look to remain below advisory level after this weekend. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the 90s until Saturday, by Sunday daytime highs look to dip into the upper 80s. Expect overnight lows to generally remain in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Scattered showers and storms will potentially affect area terminals, mostly from TLH westward, for this afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail but occasional MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible in the stronger showers/storms. Shower/storm activity should diminish around/after sunset. MVFR cigs at TLH/ABY/DHN can`t be ruled out from 09-13z, but confidence was too low to mention as a prevailing group in the TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become more numerous as we head into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that will be the primary weather concern for folks outside through the week. Rain chances will remain relatively low through Thursday as drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but dispersions will begin to creep up over the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 94 77 95 / 10 40 10 60 Panama City 81 91 81 92 / 10 40 20 60 Dothan 76 92 76 94 / 20 40 20 70 Albany 76 95 76 95 / 20 30 20 60 Valdosta 75 96 76 97 / 10 20 10 40 Cross City 77 93 76 94 / 0 20 0 30 Apalachicola 81 89 80 90 / 0 30 10 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127- 128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239771 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 332 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled just south of the area will lift north this evening. A cold front will approach the area Thursday and push through the area Friday bringing greater coverage of showers and storms with the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend with the front stalled offshore bringing cooler and more pleasant conditions for the weekend, though it will remain unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... Key Message: - Isolated thunderstorms south of Highway 70 this afternoon - Heat Advisory continues this afternoon south of Pamlico River Flat riding aloft resides over the region this afternoon with a frontal boundary stalled just to the south. A somewhat drier airmass has filtered into northern sections of the FA where dewpoints have lowering into the lower 70s and PWAT values around 1.5" or less, which has kept convection at bay this afternoon. However, south of highway 70, dewpoints in the mid 70s with PWAT values approaching 2" has brought greater instability and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Even farther south into SE NC where enhanced convergence resides along the stalled front, has seen widespread convection with locally heavy rainfall again today. Expect convection to largely wane this evening with loss of heating but the stalled boundary will lift north/dissipate overnight which may allow a few showers to persist overnight. The highest chances will be along the coast where nocturnal instability is greatest. Temps this afternoon have reached the lower 90s inland from the coast with mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat index values have generally been around 100-105 with highest values across far southern sections which have reached 105-108. Will maintain the Heat Advisory for areas south of the Pamlico River for the next few hours. Typical warm and humid conditions tonight with lows in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Key Message: - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall across ENC. Upper troughing develops over the eastern CONUS Thursday and shortwave energy pushes across the Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. Improving upper level support combined with southerly low-level flow bringing greater moisture with PW values increasing to around 2-2.25"+ will bring a greater coverage of storms across the FA Thursday. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall could see localized flooding, especially in areas that see training storms, and WPC has the region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for ENC. It will be hot and humid day with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values peaking around 100-105. Some locations, especially across far southern sections, could peak a couple of degrees above 105 but expected afternoon convection to keep duration of these values limited. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat late week into the start of next week - Flooding concerns Thursday and Friday Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of lower pressure across the eastern US late week. At the surface, a potent cold front will work its way across the Appalachians with pre-frontal troughing developing across the Carolinas. The cold front will take its sweet time crossing the FA on Friday, likely not moving offshore until Saturday morning. Once offshore, the front will stall through the weekend and support the development of a series of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast. This stalled boundary will then slowly lift north as a warm front on Monday and Tuesday. Good news: This FROPA will cause an air mass change, bringing an end to the oppressive heat and humidity that has plagued ENC for the past week. Bad news: the combination of the aforementioned synoptic and meso setup within a moisture loaded atmosphere is a recipe for multiple days of rain and flooding concerns. Impressive PWATs on the order of 2.25-2.75"+ will overspread the area on Thursday, gradually decreasing from north to south through Saturday as the front settles offshore, then surging again from south to north at the start of next week as the front lifts north. Moisture of this magnitude will support heavy rainfall from any cell that forms, and the slow progression of the front will increase concern for training cells. On Friday, the combination of lower CAPE, greater PWATs, and better forcing will create a greater flooding concern. WPC currently has all of ENC outlined in marginal (level 1/4) and slight (level 2/4) risks for flash flooding Friday-Saturday. The coast and areas along and south of Highway 264 are expected to see the most precip through Tuesday (2-4") with lower amounts to the north (1-2"). Locally higher amounts are possible wherever stronger and/or training cells occur. Heat advisories may still be needed for portions of the area Friday with heat indices forecast to reach around 105. Friday`s FROPA will be the swan song for this oppressive heat and humidity with highs on Saturday and Sunday staying in the low- to mid-80s and dewpoints ranging from the upper-60s to low-70s. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature difference. Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week (mid- to upper-80s). && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 2 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon south of Highway 70 - Low chance for fog development tonight - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday Pred VFR conditions across rtes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms south of highway 70 could bring brief sub-VFR conditions this afternoon. Expect storms to dissipate this evening with loss of heating but cannot rule out an isolated shower overnight, with highest chances along the coast. Chances for fog appears minimal with guidance indicating less than 20% chance for sub-VFR conditions overnight. A period of MVFR cigs will be possible Thursday morning as LCL`s rise with daytime heating. Sub-VFR threat continues through the afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm expected. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 2:50 AM Wednesday... There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through the long term, especially through the weekend when a cold front will bring heavy rainfall to the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Generally light E-SE winds less than 10 kt this afternoon with seas around 1-2 ft with 8 sec predominant period. Winds will veer to southerly overnight and then increase to 10-15 kt Thursday afternoon as gradients begin to tighten as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will continue around 1-2 ft through Thursday morning then will begin to see up to 3 ft building late in the day. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 3:10 AM Wednesday... A strong cold front will cross the waters late Friday, which will increase winds to 15-20 kt as they veer to the north. A northeasterly surge behind the front will increase winds to 20-30 kt on Saturday. Gales are possible for the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. On Sunday, northeasterly winds will gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. 1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by early Friday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from north to south Friday night into Sunday with peak heights expected Sunday afternoon. 5-10 ft seas are possible across the central waters with 4-7 ft seas across the northern and southern waters. Highest PoPs will be Friday-Saturday with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044-079-080- 090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239770 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Stretch of high heat and humidity wraps up this afternoon. Cloudy weather with much cooler conditions are expected Thursday into Friday, with the potential for a flooding rainfall across southern New England into northern Mid Atlantic region. The location of heaviest rainfall remains unclear. An extended stretch of dry weather then develops for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are seasonable with low humidity levels this weekend, but with a warming trend for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Near record heat this afternoon with highs in the 90s and heat indices 95-100+. Not as hot along the coast given seabreezes. * Isolated severe thunderstorms possible mainly south of the Mass Pike. * Front passes through overnight with lowering dewpoints across the interior. THIS AFTERNOON: A weak cold front continues to push south towards our CWA this afternoon and will serve as a forcing mechanism for some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk of severe convection today with MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg later this afternoon. 0-6 km shear of 35-40kts could aid in storm organization, but diffuse and weak forcing will limit the areal coverage of thunder activity. Storms should form mainly south of the Mass Pike, where instability will be a bit more robust. There is a chance for convection to fire along the seabreeze this afternoon which is shown by the RRFS and HRRR CAMs respectively. Somewhat meager midlevel lapse rates mean that shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Outside of the convective risk, the main story for the rest of the afternoon will be the continued heat and humidity. Unfortunately we are looking at another day of high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s across the interior with apparent temperatures rising to as high as 95-102 degrees. As such, a heat advisory will remain in effect for much of our CWA outside of the Cape and Islands through 00z tonight. Expecting high temperatures to come in just below record levels for today, but it will be close. The record highs for today are as follows: BOS - 98F set in 1933 BDL - 98F set in 1988 PVD - 97F set in 1949 ORH - 95F set in 1949 TONIGHT: The cold front pushes offshore overnight but doesn`t make a lot of southward progress. As a result, while inland areas, especially along and north of the Mass Pike see some relief from higher humidity the coast will likely still hold onto the near-70 degree dewpoints. The cold front transitions to a stationary front as it moves just offshore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Flood watch is in effect for northern Connecticut from 2pm Thursday through 2pm Friday but may need to be expanded with later forecast cycles. Thursday morning should be mostly dry outside of a few widely scattered showers. Should be a much cooler day than what we`ve seen over the last several days with highs struggling into the upper 60s and lower 70s. It will feel cooler with a stiff NE wind, especially at the coast. Attention turns to the potential for widespread heavy rainfall and areas of flooding for Thursday night into Friday. Synoptically, the event will be driven by a highly anomalous 130kt jet over northern New England. Southern New England will be squarely in the right- entrance region of the jet, under favorable upper divergence. Closer to the surface, a vigorous baroclinic wave brings a robust axis of low and mid-level frontogenesis to the region starting Thursday evening. Mositure-wise, higher PWAT air will advect north ahead of the amplifying disturbance Thursday afternoon. Guidance shows PWAT values rising to 1.7-1.9 inches which is around 150 percent of normal for this time of year. BUFKIT soundings show warm cloud depths increasing to 12kft within the warmer, higher theta-e airmass as it moves northward. The main forecast challenge is narrowing down the corridor of highest QPF. Latest HREF PMM QPF guidance is advertising two swaths of heavier rainfall. The heavier swath is shown well to the south of our CWA across portions of the Mid Atlantic and is directly associated with an 850mb circulation. The second, associated with the mid-level frontogenesis maxima is centered across much of northern Connecticut. In this area, the forecast QPF from the HREF PMM is showing localized areas of 3-4 inches of rain. Outside of this maximum the NBM is showing a widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall for just about everyone. There is still some uncertainty as to where the heaviest axis of rain occurs, but confidence is high enough for us to issue a flood watch for northern Connecticut from 2pm Thursday through 2pm Friday. In summary, the combination of cool-season upper dynamics and deep warm cloud processes may result in areas of flooding with the highest confidence across areas of northern Connecticut. Rainfall rates will likely peak between 03 and 09z Thursday night during which time they may approach 0.5 to 0.75 inches per hour. These rates could result in areas of low-lying or poor drainage flooding and so it may be a good idea to avoid unnecessary travel Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Improving weather on Friday * Seasonably cool weekend ahead Rain begins to shift offshore Friday morning as high pressure and dry air works its way south from northern New England. Guidance is not in great agreement on the timing, with the GFS being the quickest to dry things out by noon on Friday, while the Euro, Nam, and Canadian are slower with precip lingering into the evening commute. Friday will be an anomalously cool day for the first day of August as rain and cloud cover, along with NE flow, will likely hold high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Saturday and Sunday The weekend is shaping up to be nearly perfect weather-wise as high pressure builds in from the north, ushering in dry and seasonable conditions with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures on Saturday warm into the mid-70s to low 80s with light northerly winds. Dewpoints on Saturday range from the upper 40s inland to mid-50s near the coast, making it feel very comfortable outside. Temperatures warm slightly on Sunday into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Next week. High pressure remains in control for the first half of next week. High temperatures stay in the 80s with dewpoints around 60F. As for precipitation, we are unlikely to see any until late in the week as guidance hints at a shortwave exiting the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...Moderate confidence; some uncertainty if thunderstorms develop and their coverage. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop between 19z and 22z. Low confidence on areal coverage, but if anything does develop, it will likely remain towards western MA and north- central CT. We handled this uncertainty with a PROB30 after 18Z for BDL and BAF. Low probability of a few robust storms, with strong winds the main threat. Tonight...High confidence. VFR likely, except IFR/LIFR south coast, including Cape Cod and islands in low clouds and fog. Light winds mainly W overnight if they aren`t calm. Thursday...Moderate confidence, mainly due to timing issues. VFR for most. Areas of MVFR possible in heavier rainfall. Timing of lower conditions most likely in the mid to late afternoon, but could hold off until Thursday night. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF through 18z. Then some uncertainty on development and coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, though chances are diminishing. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High confidence on winds and seas, lower confidence on timing and areal coverage of potential thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog possible early this morning around Nantucket, and again tonight. Typical summer pattern with relatively light winds and seas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible after 4-5 PM today. A cold front will provide a wind shift to the NE toward Thu morning. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>021-026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>007. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006-007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239767 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The surface ridge axis will remain across south Florida through early next week with a weakening cool front moving into the southeast states and eventually stalling across north Florida over the weekend. The rather hot weather will continue through Thursday and have issued another Heat Advisory for the Nature Coast south through the Interstate 4 corridor for Thursday afternoon and early evening. Plenty of moisture will remain across the area through the period for isolated to scattered late night and morning convection over the coastal waters and near the coast each day moving inland and becoming scattered to numerous over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening. The pattern begins to change early next week with a more southeast flow setting up by midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move inland away from the coastal TAF sites by 20Z, but continue around LAL into early this evening. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in the convection, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning around the Tampa Bay region with more scattered activity developing and moving inland during the afternoon. Southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots will diminish and become light later this evening and overnight, and then become southwest 5 to 10 knots by late morning Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Weak high pressure will remain over the region with generally light winds and slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the week. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours could accompany these storms and make for localized hazardous conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Hot and humid summertime conditions continue with with light winds and high RHs daily. The afternoon sea breeze will move inland with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 94 82 94 / 10 30 10 30 FMY 79 95 79 95 / 20 30 20 50 GIF 78 96 79 96 / 20 50 10 50 SRQ 80 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 75 94 76 94 / 10 30 0 30 SPG 82 91 81 91 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1239768 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Shower activity has persisted over Collier and Hendry counties for the past several hours due to a slow steering flow from the Gulf. Short term convection models indicate that this activity should decrease by mid afternoon with additional development across the interior of the east coast counties as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. High pressure conditions will remain in place for the next few days keeping the daily weather conditions similar day to day. Southeast wind flow will aid in the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the east coast in the afternoon and across the southwest with the winds turning from the southwest. With similar dew points and high temperatures for tomorrow forecast to be around one degree lower than today, the criteria for Heat Advisory is not expected. However, safety measures should be followed if spending long periods of time outside during the day. No other changes were made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 SHRA and a few TSRA can affect the east coastal terminals this afternoon and slowly move inland. APF will see MVFR conditions due to lingering shower activity through afternoon due to slow steering flow. VFR returning tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 77 93 77 93 / 10 30 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 95 / 10 30 10 20 Homestead 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 81 92 / 10 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 81 96 81 96 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 93 79 93 / 20 30 10 10 Boca Raton 79 94 79 94 / 20 30 10 10 Naples 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239766 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather will continue to persist through tomorrow, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely tomorrow and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and Humid conditions will prevail through tomorrow. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow across the area. While at the surface high pressure continues to remain overhead continuing to bring in the hot and humid airmass. Temperatures this afternoon are in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast. Dew points have remained steady in the lower to middle 70s throughout this afternoon making the Heat Index values to be between 100 and 104. Sky cover remains partly clear as fair weather cumulus have developed across the area. Showers and storms have developed across the higher terrain but should remain confines just to the west of the CWA. There is a slight chance that a shower may come off the high terrain to the far NW continues later this afternoon and evening. As the sun sets this evening, the sky`s will begin to clear as the cumulus deteriorate due to the loss of daytime heating. The warm and muggy conditions will continue through the night. Low temperatures will be in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coastline. For tomorrow, primarily zonal flow will be across the area with a weak shortwave trough moving through in the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching the area before stalling just to the north of the CWA. Ahead of the front a hot and humid airmass will be building into place with highs in the lower 90s and dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will cause Heat Index values again to be between 100 and 104 across the area just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. Despite not having a Heat Advisory it will still be hot and humid outside. In addition to the heat there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Model guidance continues to be inconsistent on the timing of showers and thunderstorms. As of this forecast update the best timing will be in the afternoon to evening hours of tomorrow. Some of these showers and storms maybe severe as ML cape values will be between 1500 and 2000 J/kg and strong lower-level lapse rates will be in place. However, there will be weak bulk shear of 25kt (normal in this summertime pattern) that will help keep the severity of storms down. The main threat with these storms will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. This heavy rain fall could potentially cause a risk of localized flash flooding.At this time a flood watch has not been issued due to the high flash flood guidance across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold front moves across the area leading to cooler temperatures in the north and warmer temperatures in the south. -Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday but decrease by Saturday. By Friday high pressure will be moving out of Canada and helping to reinforce the cold front that will eventually push through the area. By the afternoon of Friday the cold front will be over the area causing a strong temperature gradient. Across the north high temperatures will be in the middle to lower 80s. While to the south the airmass will be warmer and more humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Index values will be approaching 100 south of the front primarily in NE NC. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will also continue on Friday. However, it is yet truly unclear on where these showers and thunderstorms will initiate due to two factors. Where the frontal boundary is and where a potential outflow boundary from the previous night will be located. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon/evening of Friday. Saturday the front should be through the area and the chances of showers and storms will have diminished. The overall weather conditions for Saturday look to be promising especially for this time of year. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s under partly cloudy skies. There will also be breezy conditions Saturday especially along the coast with with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - More pleasant weather is expected to continue through the early portions of next week. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase by early next week. Latest ensemble guidance is in decent agreement through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Weak troughing aloft will be centered over portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River valley that will bring in cooler temperatures through much of the extended forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the area Sunday through Monday bringing dry conditions with dews in the lower to middle 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s. This will be some much needed relief from the heat and humidity. However, temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering.&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist through most of the 18z TAF period. One exception could come from early morning fog but most guidance keeps reduced VSBY confined to the Piedmont, away from the TAF sites. Winds generally below 10 kt today, highly variable near the coast as sea/land breeze influences dominate. SCT cumulus develop again Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with with locally degraded flight conditions and gusty winds. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub Small Craft conditions persist today and Thursday. - Widespread SCA conditions expected Friday into the weekend as a strong cold front crosses the region. High pressure remains in control of the local weather this afternoon with S and SE winds 5-10 kt. Waves and seas remain nearly flat at around 1 foot. Weak synoptic forcing results in some sea/bay breeze enhancement to the SE winds (10-15 kt) late this afternoon, mainly across the southern Ches Bay and adjacent Atlantic waters. Southerly flow to start the day Thursday becomes SE ~15 kt by the afternoon as the surface cold front approaches the region from the NW. Latest guidance continues to show a line of stronger convection moving into the waters by tomorrow evening with locally enhanced winds/waves/seas in an around thunderstorms. These threats will be covered by MWS/SMWs as necessary. Guidance suggests the front will slow its progression through the area Thursday night with a continued threat for showers and storms, though widespread severe weather is not expected overnight. Stronger cold advection will lag the frontal passage by 6-12 hours with winds becoming N and eventually NE 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Friday night. Strong NE flow continues with winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Ches Bay/rivers/Sound and 25-30 kt with a few gust to 35 kt possible for the Atlantic coastal waters on Saturday. Local wind probabilities for gusts exceeding 34 kt increase to ~20-30% for the coastal waters but sustained 34 kt winds or frequent gusts above gale thresholds are very unlikely this time of year. Will continue to monitor this period in subsequent forecast, however. Waves increase to 3-5 ft (highest near the mouth) with seas building to 5-8 ft during this period. SCA conditions likely persist for the bay and coastal waters well into Sunday with seas forecast to remain above 5 ft into early next week. Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Thursday and Friday with a Moderate Rip risk expected on Saturday as seas build. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239765 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 140 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. - Borderline elevated fire weather this afternoon/evening over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Limited by weak winds. - Low rain chances return Thursday into early next week, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The mid-level ridge centered over Texas today will shift westward while an inverted mid-level trough over the northwest Gulf shifts over the Texas Coast tonight. This trough will increase moisture (75th percentile) and provide plenty of PVA as it moves westward over South Texas Thursday and Thursday night, warranting a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. In wake of the inverted trough moving westward, a zonal shortwave stretching from the southern Great Plains to East Coast will sag southward and lead to northerly flow aloft and near to above normal moisture into early next week. Another high pressure system looks to filter into New Mexico heading into the middle of next week. A daily very low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will be focused over the Victoria Crossroads. Dry conditions with relative humidity falling below 30% over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon and early evening enhances the fire weather risk, but light winds limit the threat. Heat will remain the greatest concern across South Texas with a daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts and max heat indices nearing 110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening before mostly clear skies and weak winds allow for another night of fog and patchy dense fog over the inland Coastal Plains (VCT/ALI). Potential LIFR cigs and vsbys between 08-14Z will be followed quickly by VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) variable flow is expected to continue through this evening before becoming a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southwesterly to southeasterly flow Thursday through early next week. There is a low 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into early next week mainly over the offshore waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 97 76 97 / 0 20 10 0 Victoria 74 99 76 99 / 0 20 10 10 Laredo 78 104 78 104 / 0 20 20 0 Alice 73 101 74 101 / 0 20 10 10 Rockport 80 93 80 92 / 0 20 10 0 Cotulla 77 104 79 103 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 74 98 74 98 / 0 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 80 90 80 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239764 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unusually hot weather with high humidity will continue through Friday. A cold front should push through by Friday night bringing noticeably less hot weather for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Trough extending from weak low just off of the Cape Fear coast along with weakening mid to upper trough and pcp water values up around 2.4 inches were contributing to greater coverage of storms this afternoon. By tonight, models show this weak trough lifting north as the sfc high to the east nudges in with a steady S-SW flow developing into Thurs. May see best coverage just north and west of area on Thurs along pre-frontal trough and where best shortwave energy rides across the mid to upper trough to the north. This activity should not reach into our local area until after this period. The mid to upper ridge builds up from the south on Thurs, perhaps enough to help lessen coverage over coastal SC Thurs aftn. With that being said, confidence is fairly low due to the fact that plenty of warm and moist air exists and localized sea breeze activity is always a possibility. Temps should top 90 in most places on Thurs with dewpoints in the 70s giving way to another hot and humid day. Expect heat index values above 100 and may reach above 105 in spots for a short while, but looks like overall we should remain just below heat advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Convection may linger into the overnight hours Thursday night, particularly closer to the coast, due to continued presence of deep moisture, upper forcing, and whatever outflow boundaries may remain from earlier that day. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s. Frontal system moves through the area Friday and Friday night. This kicks up the moisture profiles even more, along with more organized forcing. Rain and thunderstorms likely Friday afternoon and evening as the front moves through. Considering the increased moisture in the layer (precipitable water values lingering in the 2.30-2.40" range), high rain rates in heavy rain may lead to a flash flooding concern in certain areas, particularly in the lowest lying areas along the coast. As such, we are in a "Slight Risk" (threat level 2/4) for excessive rainfall, per the Weather Prediction Center. Latest temperature and dewpoint data suggest that we may reach Heat Advisory criteria (again) across the area. This depends on when convective initiation really begins. If rain and clouds increase considerably by mid-late morning, this would wipe out the advisory. Will need to monitor this with time. Convection likely to continue into Friday night. Lows in the low-to-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Front lingers just offshore Saturday, while shortwave forcing sticks around, creating more chances for showers and storms in the afternoon, with the highest chances along the coast. Even so, showers and storms shouldn`t be quite as widespread, with drier air infiltrating the upper levels of the atmosphere. The most impressive part of the story here is the temperature drop. Highs Saturday only get into the lower 80s, which lingers around 10 degrees below normal in some spots. Throughout the extended period, no triple digit heat indices in sight. Highs very slowly moderate towards the upper 80s by the middle of next week. Rain chances remain decent everyday, mostly thanks to multiple shortwaves traversing through the area, while mesoscale features like the seabreeze may help things out. Cooler lows in the mid-to- upper 60s Saturday night slowly moderate into the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly active afternoon as trough lingers over the area and sea breeze convection flaring up. Shwrs/tstms should continue to affect the coastal terminals into early this evening before diminishing. In heavy rain vsbys and ceilings should drop briefly as low as IFR in any given storm. Expect some low clouds and fog, mainly inland terminals after 08z with possibility of tstms, mainly after 15z on Thurs. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms. Vis and low cig restrictions are possible each night through the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Variable winds driven mainly by sea breeze into early this evening and land breeze overnight will become steadier out of the S-SW into Thurs. High pressure to the east and approaching trough/cold front will tighten the gradient a bit heading into later on Thurs with winds reaching up near 10 kts or so. Thursday Night through Monday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts linger Thursday night through Friday ahead of a cold front, with seas generally at 2-3 ft. Front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, with veering winds occurring throughout. Winds finally settle on northeasterly by late Saturday morning, a trend that continues through Monday. Gradient winds increase Saturday night through Sunday, where gusts may increase up to 20-23 kts. Confidence in Small Craft Advisory thresholds have decreased, but the forecast has wavered a bit, so we`ll have to see where the trends go. For now, look for 3-4 ft waves at the coast, 4-5 waves out 20 nm offshore. Gradient decreases Sunday night through Monday, allowing gusts to dip below 20 kts, and seas decrease to 2-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239763 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hazardous heat continues today and into late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM today across all of east central Florida for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. Have issued a Heat Advisor for Osceola to Brevard counties northward for Thursday from noon until 7 PM for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. - Shower and storm chances will be near-normal through mid to late week (30-50%), especially over the interior, with rain chances then increasing through the weekend into early next week (up to 50-70%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight... Mid level ridge will build over the Florida peninsula today, continuing the hazardous heat conditions across the local area. Surface high pressure will remain over the region, producing light S/SW flow across ECFL today. Winds will back SE behind the east coast sea breeze this afternoon, with the sea breeze moving inland a little slower than yesterday. The main story today will continue to be the heat. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 90s, and combined with the humidity, will produce peak heat indices of 108 to 112 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida until 7 PM. Forecast sounding shows moisture continuing to increase today, with values rising to 1.8-2.0". This will support a gradual increase in convection today, which will help bring some relief to the heat later in the afternoon and evening. There is a medium (30-50 percent) chance of showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers are forecast to develop along the sea breeze, closer to the coast than yesterday, as it pushes inland this afternoon. The greatest potential for storms, however, will be west of I-95 and inland this afternoon into evening, where hi-res guidance continues to show late day boundary collisions occurring. Models are indicating that some of this activity will have the potential to push back towards the coast into the evening, mainly north of the Treasure Coast. The 15Z XMR sounding once again shows some lingering dry air aloft, with a DCAPE value around 1000 J/kg (which is similar to what the forecast sounds have been showing). Because of this, storms that form today will continue to have the potential to become strong. Main storm threats today will be frequent lightning, strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches leading to minor flooding. Any lingering activity later in the evening will dissipate or move offshore, leaving mostly dry conditions across east central Florida overnight. Conditions will continue to be warm and muggy tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid-level ridge across Florida will move slowly westward into late week, with hazardous heat persisting. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 105-110 degrees. Have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of ECFL, mainly from Osceola to Brevard Counties northward, from noon until 7 PM on Thursday. An additional heat advisories will likely be needed for portions, if not all, of east central Florida on Friday. However, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop each afternoon and evening (rain chances ~30-50 percent), bringing some relief to the heat later in the day. Some stronger storms will still be possible each day, with the main threats continuing to be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding. Greatest storm coverage will still focus west of I-95, with convection winding down into late evening. Mostly dry conditions then forecast during the overnight hours, while remaining warm and muggy, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A front will push southward into north Florida during the weekend and linger north of the area through early next week. This will lead to increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, with PoPs up to 50-70 percent each afternoon/evening. This will help bring some relief to the ongoing heat wave, but highs will still be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will still remain elevated, but look to largely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, around 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Rest of today-Sunday.... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through the weekend, with hot and humid conditions persisting. High pressure axis will generally remain south of the area through the period. This will result in WSW winds dominating each day before backing to the southeast each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Wind speeds will generally remain below 15 KT. Seas 1-2 ft in the nearshore waters and up to 3 ft at times in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop over the waters each day, especially during the morning and overnight hours. However, because of the weak offshore steering flow today, some storms may push back toward the coast and just offshore late this afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Isolated showers have begun to develop sporadically across east central Florida. Models continue to show and increase in shower and storm development between 20-24Z for the I-4 corridor (including MCO). Tempos have been included. However, a few storms could linger in this area through around 1-2Z. Otherwise, lower confidence in any shower and storm timing for the coast, where coverage is expected to be lower. Have maintained VCTS, due to the few showers that have already developed along the sea breeze prior to 18Z. By tonight, drier conditions are forecast. Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected after 18Z Thursday. Light southwesterly flow will become east to southeast in the afternoon and evening hours, as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Wind speeds remaining around 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 94 77 94 / 30 40 10 30 MCO 78 95 79 96 / 30 50 10 50 MLB 78 93 79 92 / 20 40 10 40 VRB 75 93 76 93 / 20 40 10 40 LEE 78 95 78 95 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 79 96 79 96 / 30 50 10 40 ORL 79 96 79 96 / 30 50 10 50 FPR 75 93 74 93 / 20 40 10 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239762 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 228 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 947 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds today. Early this morning, seeing mostly clear skies over most of the area (outside of a few higher clouds). Warm/muggy this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest later today, but remains well north of the area. Dewpoints will be a couple degrees higher today compared to yesterday as southerly flow ahead of the boundary allows for an uptick in moisture. Afternoon heat indices will top out between 100 and 104F, with a few spots potentially exceeding 105 for an hour or two. Due to the limited coverage and short duration of any 105+ heat indices, opted for no heat headlines today. Afternoon high temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s. Still can`t rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorms across our western Piedmont counties late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of the local area. Remaining warm and muggy tonight with lows in the mid 70s and upper 70s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and muggy ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday with heat indices climbing to near 105. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday as the front moves crosses the area. On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down across the east with the center of the high retrograding towards the SW CONUS. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned cold front approaches and moves through the area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included roughly the northern half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO, with a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the area as the widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place already over the region. In addition to the flooding threat, strong to severe storms will also be possible due to the high instability and enhanced flow aloft/at the surface over the local area. SPC has placed far northern portions of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be the main threats Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s to potentially mid 90s in spots with dew points rising back into the mid 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. The front likely slows as it drops south on Friday, allowing for showers and storms chances to continue (greatest coverage S-SE). WPC has most of the area in a Day 3 Marginal ERO, with a Slight ERO just south of the area. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday ranging from around 80 across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday (especially across the far SE/along the Albemarle Sound). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist through most of the 18z TAF period. One exception could come from early morning fog but most guidance keeps reduced VSBY confined to the Piedmont, away from the TAF sites. Winds generally below 10 kt today, highly variable near the coast as sea/land breeze influences dominate. SCT cumulus develop again Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with with locally degraded flight conditions and gusty winds. && .MARINE... As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... - Sub Small Craft conditions persist today and Thursday. - Widespread SCA conditions expected Friday into the weekend as a strong cold front crosses the region. High pressure remains in control of the local weather this afternoon with S and SE winds 5-10 kt. Waves and seas remain nearly flat at around 1 foot. Weak synoptic forcing results in some sea/bay breeze enhancement to the SE winds (10-15 kt) late this afternoon, mainly across the southern Ches Bay and adjacent Atlantic waters. Southerly flow to start the day Thursday becomes SE ~15 kt by the afternoon as the surface cold front approaches the region from the NW. Latest guidance continues to show a line of stronger convection moving into the waters by tomorrow evening with locally enhanced winds/waves/seas in an around thunderstorms. These threats will be covered by MWS/SMWs as necessary. Guidance suggests the front will slow its progression through the area Thursday night with a continued threat for showers and storms, though widespread severe weather is not expected overnight. Stronger cold advection will lag the frontal passage by 6-12 hours with winds becoming N and eventually NE 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Friday night. Strong NE flow continues with winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Ches Bay/rivers/Sound and 25-30 kt with a few gust to 35 kt possible for the Atlantic coastal waters on Saturday. Local wind probabilities for gusts exceeding 34 kt increase to ~20-30% for the coastal waters but sustained 34 kt winds or frequent gusts above gale thresholds are very unlikely this time of year. Will continue to monitor this period in subsequent forecast, however. Waves increase to 3-5 ft (highest near the mouth) with seas building to 5-8 ft during this period. SCA conditions likely persist for the bay and coastal waters well into Sunday with seas forecast to remain above 5 ft into early next week. Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Thursday and Friday with a Moderate Rip risk expected on Saturday as seas build. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239761 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 203 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore through the rest of the work week, a trough of low pressure will continue to press inland. A cold front may stall nearby this weekend and promote heavy to excessive rainfall across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Instability is slowly building over the area this afternoon. Isolated to scattered convection continues to percolate across parts of the Charleston Tri-County along several mesoscale boundaries, but coverage should slowly ramp up and refocus inland as the afternoon progresses. NBM pops around 70% across the interior may be a bit high based on some of the latest CAMS, but these were mostly maintained as it does not really impact our local messaging that the tstm main risks for this afternoon/evening continue to center on locally heavy rainfall/minor flooding and a few strong tstms. Not uncommon for deep summer, an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds from wet microbursts can not be completely ruled out. Convection will slowly wind down through the evening hours, but lingering outflow boundaries and warm/moist conditions could support some degree of convection overnight, similar to what occurred last night. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s well inland to the upper 70s/lower 80s at the coast and beaches. As for the Heat Advisory, heat indices are nearing the 108 mark across parts of Southeast Georgia up into the Beaufort County area. Even up in Charleston where convection has been off and on for the past few hours, some locations are already seeing heat indices near 110. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 8 PM as it is currently defined, but some clearing of counties may be needed later this afternoon as convection expands. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As this subtropical ridge weakens, multiple shortwaves aloft will carve out an upper-lvl trough across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a reasonably strong cold front for early August will start to push into the region at the leading edge of this aforementioned upper-lvl trough. Ample moisture and instability will promote heavy to excessive rainfall in showers and/or thunderstorms that could cause localized flash flooding. In addition, WPC has placed the region under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Friday and Saturday. In regard to temperatures, expect highs to reach into the mid to upper 90s on Thursday and Friday with dewpoints ranging in the mid to upper 70s. A Heat Advisory was issued for tomorrow (11AM to 8PM EDT)for counties along and east of I-95 as heat indices are expected to reach into the 108 to 112 degrees range. Friday could warrant another Heat Advisory, however showers and/or thunderstorms might limit afternoon heating. As this cold front continues to drop southeastward across the region, temperatures will finally cool down on Saturday, with highs only reaching into the mid 80s to low 90s under cloudy skies. This will be enough to limit heating Saturday, and an additional Heat Advisory may not be needed. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... This wet and unsettled pattern will continue through the early next week as this cold front stalls nearby and meanders along the coastline. With PWATs 2.0+ inches and decent instability sticking around, scattered convection across the region should be maintained. Periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible within these showers and/or thunderstorms that track over an area for an extended period of time. Confidence still remains low if the flash flooding will be enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Additionally, WPC continues to show 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across our area on the 7-day QPF forecast, with the majority of these values falling Saturday through Monday. On a positive note, this pattern will allow for a refreshing change of cooler temperatures through early next week with highs only reaching into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 30/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: Tstms will meander near KCHS for the next few hours. VCTS was highlighted at both terminals through mid-afternoon with TEMPO for direct impacts at KCHS roughly through 20-21z. VFR should prevail for the remainder of the night, although with moist/humid conditions holding in place through sunrise, an isolated nocturnal shower/tstm can not be completely ruled out. KSAV: The terminal will remain dry through the remainder of the afternoon with convection expected to concentrate to the west. Some activity could meander into the terminal later this evening, which was handled with a VCTS 00-04z. VFR should prevail for the remainder of the night, although with moist/humid conditions holding in place through sunrise, an isolated nocturnal shower/tstm can not be completely ruled out. Extended Aviation Forecast: The risk for flight restrictions due to showers/tstms will persist each afternoon/evening with chances ramping up over the weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: Southerly winds will veer to the southwest overnight. Speeds will remain less than 15 kt with seas 1-3 ft. Thursday through Sunday: Expect southerly winds at 10 to 15 kt through Friday, with winds turning to the northeast over the weekend as a reasonably strong cold front for early August stalls nearby over the weekend. It could become gusty over the weekend (mainly on Sunday afternoon) across the nearshore South Carolina waters as the gradient pinches behind the cold front. Expect seas to be 2 to 3 ft, and then begin to build 3 to 5 ft on Sunday (mainly across South Carolina nearshore waters). Otherwise, no marine concerns. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 31: KCHS: 80/2022 KSAV: 80/2010 August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101- 114>119-137>141. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ047>052. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ047>052. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239760 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 An upper ridge off the southeast US will build westward into the Gulf through late week and into the weekend. As it progresses westward, winds aloft will transition from southwesterly to westerly on Friday and will linger through Saturday. By Sunday and into next week, weak upper troughing sets up across the southeast US. This should allow for a weakening frontal boundary to move into the local area from the north, likely stalling somewhere across the area. With PWATs generally above 2 inches and forcing induced by shortwave impulses moving within the flow aloft and the approaching frontal boundary at the surface, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each day. Activity will generally follow a typical diurnal pattern, with showers and storms developing during the morning over our marine zones and along the coast, pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours, and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall. Highs through Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s. Went ahead and issued another Heat Advisory for most of the area for tomorrow. Outside of convection, heat indices will likely top out in the 105- 110 degree range, especially along coastal counties and counties west of the Tombigbee River. At this time, heat indices are expected to remain below criteria over interior south central Alabama.. generally around 102-107. This pattern should hold through Friday, and potentially into Saturday. As the front moves in and stalls overhead, highs will lower slightly further into the upper 80s to low 90s by the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe. Heat indices will likely lower to below Advisory levels area-wide by this period. The rip current risk will generally be low through the week, although we are expecting a brief bump to moderate on Thursday for our western Florida Panhandle beaches due to increased onshore flow. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 General VFR conditions with local MVFR/VFR conditions in convection along the AL Gulf coast were noted at 17z. Am expecting this convection to spread out and affect area TAF sites this afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move inland this afternoon, bringing local drops in conditions to low end MVFR levels. The convection will weaken and decrease in coverage this evening as the day`s heat is lost. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast in the morning, bringing local drops in conditions to mid MVFR levels. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will continue through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 77 93 77 93 76 93 74 90 / 30 60 20 70 30 70 40 70 Pensacola 80 92 80 93 79 92 76 89 / 20 40 20 50 30 70 50 70 Destin 82 92 81 91 80 91 78 89 / 20 30 20 40 20 70 50 70 Evergreen 75 95 76 95 74 93 72 89 / 30 50 20 60 30 80 50 70 Waynesboro 74 94 75 95 73 92 72 91 / 40 60 20 60 30 60 30 60 Camden 75 94 76 94 74 92 72 88 / 40 50 30 60 30 60 40 60 Crestview 76 94 76 94 75 93 73 90 / 20 50 10 70 20 80 50 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051-052-059- 261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239759 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 159 PM AST Wed Jul 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A weak tropical wave will increase shower activity on Thursday. * A Saharan Air Layer with minor to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust will bring hazy skies and drier air on Friday. * A wetter pattern is expected during the weekend with the passage of a tropical wave. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday... ...A Heat Advisory is in effect until 5 PM this afternoon for the coastal municipalities and lower-elevations of eastern PR... A lingering drier air mass under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern Atlantic and minor concentrations of Saharan dust promoted fair weather conditions in general throughout the day. The 30/12z TJSJ sounding indicated a 500 mb temperatures of near -4C, and the precipitable water content was 1.51 inches, below normal levels. However, this available limited moisture content in combination with daytime heating and the sea breeze convergence will cause showers and possible isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over portions of the interior and west/southwest Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, light showers from streamers can redevelop at times until sunset. Thereafter, the main weather features will be two tropical waves. The first one on Thursday, with global models suggesting a weak and disorganized wave that can still bring an increase in passing showers across the USVI and windward areas of PR during the morning hours. Then, as the wave moves across the region during the peak of daytime heating, this will enhance the diurnal cycle of afternoon convection with showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over western PR and downwind from el Yunque into portions of Bayamon, Toa Baja, Dorado and nearby municipalities. On Friday, a quick drying pattern is expected as drier air with minor to moderate concentrations of Saharan dust filters over the area. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... /From previous discussion issued at 432 AM AST Wed Jul 30 2025/ A vigorous tropical wave will bring an unstable weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Saturday through Sunday. Abundant moisture associated with this wave will support a wet pattern, with increased cloudiness and a higher frequency of showers and thunderstorms. While there remain discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF models regarding the exact timing of the waves axis passage, both agree on the potential for widespread rainfall. The most significant impacts are expected on Sunday, supported by favorable instability from an upper-level low just northwest of the region, with 500 mb temperatures ranging from -6 to -7C, as shown by the Glvez-Davison Index values. The flood threat will be elevated, particularly across the eastern slopes, western interior, and northwestern and northeastern Puerto Rico due to persistent shower activity and saturated soils. The U.S. Virgin Islands will mostly observe showers early on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, for the islands, the flood risk will remain limited. Trailing moisture will linger into Monday, keeping conditions humid and favorable for showers across parts of the islands. These conditions will lead to mostly warm and muggy conditions, leading heat indices to surpass 100 degrees in most of the coastal and urban areas. However, a drier and more stable air mass with Saharan dust is forecast to arrive by Tuesday, leading to improving conditions. This will result in hazy skies and reduced shower activity through midweek. By Wednesday, as the Saharan dust moves out of the area, a more seasonal weather pattern is expected to resume, characterized by typical afternoon convection mainly across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico under light to moderate easterly trade winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the forecast period. However, SHRA/TSRA in and around the western interior may cause brief MVFR cigs at TJPS and VCTS thru at least 30/21z. The 30/12z TJSJ sounding indicated east winds up to 13 kt blo FL030. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, in combination with an induced surface trough, will continue to promote gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds. Today, portions of the Caribbean waters may experience moderate to locally fresh winds, leading to slightly choppy marine conditions. By Friday, an approaching tropical wave and its leading edge will increase winds across the local waters, enhancing the potential for thunderstorms and resulting in localized hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... There is a low risk of rip currents today for all the islands. However, life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. The risk is expected to increase to moderate late tomorrow (Thursday) for beaches in St. Croix, Vieques, and Culebra. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007- 008-010-011. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239758 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 208 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions prevail for both EYW and MTH for the 18Z TAF cycle. Dry air continues to keep shower and ceiling coverage limited, though a short lived MVFR period is possible from pop up showers. Near surface winds remain southeasterly from 5 to 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Conditions changed somewhat over the past day across the Florida Keys. Winds across the Keys are more consistently southeasterly near 5 knots, and temperatures along the island chain are on track to reach 90F. Morning KBYX radar scans detect occasional shallow showers across the Florida Straits, and GOES-East Day Cloud Phase observations see slight tongues of high altitude cirrus cloud and weak lines of cumulus near the Marathon Humps. The morning KKEY sounding highlights the oncoming period of dry air. The PWAT observation was near 1.5 inches, below the 10th percentile. Switching to Total PWAT satellite observations from both GOES-East and CIMSS MIMIC PWAT retrievals indicate even drier air exists east of the Keys. The conclusion is that no changes are required for the current forecast package. Even though the atmosphere is dry and low level forcing is limited, isolated showers can and will pop up over the CWA. Warm, muggy, and extremely sunny weather will bring about the end of July. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the weakened western flank of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys. This will result in light broadly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. The ridge will strengthen modestly as it lifts towards Central Florida. As a result, marine winds will nudge upwards slightly. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1953, the daily record low temperature of 67F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239757 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Convective coverage has remained mainly over the coastal Gulf waters this morning has convective turnover has yet to occur today. The surface high continues to push off to the southwest over the northwestern Gulf as its associated ridge moves westward across the southern part of the Pecos River Valley in southwest Texas. A tropical wave has moved westward across the northern Gulf Coast and is currently situated across the eastern half of our area where an axis of higher PW around 2.2 inches reside. According to CAMs, it looks like convective turnover onto land will occur in the next 3 hours around 3p when the convective temperature is reached in the mid-90s. The holdoff of convection over land has led to dangerous heat across the area as multiple locations have topped 108 degrees by noon today as the higher moisture content lingers around here. However, when we do start to pop convection over land, high PW combined with very high CAPE of 3500 MLCAPE and 5500+ SBCAPE and 900-1100 j/kg of DCAPE, wet microbursts will be likely with any stronger storms today. Damaging winds seems to be the only threat today as the the freezing level remains exceptionally high above 15,500 feet, meaning it would take a very strong core to make it abnormally high to produce severe hail at the surface after melting below the freezing level. Any convection that forms across the area should dissipate by 10-11pm tonight as we lose daylight heating and we return to an unusually muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Ridging over the northeastern Gulf will expand westward more into our area on Thursday which will help keep temps elevated in the mid 90s. CAMs suggest that convection over land tomorrow will not occur until later in the day around 3p-4p. So, since we`ll be allowed to heat up through at least the early afternoon, dangerous heat will be on the table again for tomorrow as the elevated moisture remains across the area. Mid 90s temps coupled with dew points in the mid to upper 70s will lead to heat indices near 110 degrees. This many days with dangerous heat will only add to the compounding heat stress. When convection does fire tomorrow afternoon/evening, the parameters will largely be the same as today, maybe just slightly lower DCAPE, so isolated wet microbursts will be a concern tomorrow afternoon and evening as well. Once again, the freezing level looks to be too high to have any concerns with severe hail. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Uncertainty seems to pick up in the medium range guidance as we get into Friday and the weekend. Models generally agree that a weak boundary associated with troughing across the Great Lakes region will push down from the north at some point this weekend into the mid to lower MS Valley. Questions still remain on when (as early as Friday and as late as Sunday) and how far down the boundary makes it. Just solely based off of climatology, it`s tough for fronts to make it all the way down here in late July and early August, so its doubtful that it will make it all the way into our area. However, there is enough guidance hinting at it that it could be a real possibility. If it were to make it down here, it`ll primarily give us a break from the humid conditions and give us lows in the low 70s and upper 60s. If not, we`ll just stay in the same summertime regime with hot and humid conditions and daily summertime convection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 We have yet to turnover this afternoon as most of the convective coverage remains across the coastal Gulf waters. Expect development to occur within the next 2-3 hours as we continue to reach our convective temperature. In this popup thunderstorm regime, it`s tough to know exactly where these storms will develop and go since it`s largely driven by outflows and seabreeze boundaries. Thus, only TEMPOS have been introduces this afternoon and evening for all of the sites. Any convection that doesn`t form should dissipate around 03-04z as we lose daylight heating. Tomorrow will be much of the same, but the primary convective window tomorrow seems to be after 18z, so there isn`t much mention of convection in the TAFs except for MSY. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure will continue to steadily build west, allowing for an increase in mainly early morning through mid-morning shower and storm activity. Within any one strong or severe storm, strong wind gusts, waterspouts and enhanced wave/sea activity can be expected. Otherwise, conditions will remain mainly calm outside of storm activity going into the weekend with light winds and waves/seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 94 74 94 / 40 60 20 70 BTR 76 95 76 95 / 50 60 20 70 ASD 75 93 76 94 / 40 70 20 70 MSY 79 95 80 95 / 40 70 20 80 GPT 78 93 78 94 / 40 60 30 70 PQL 77 93 77 93 / 40 60 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239754 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 947 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds today. Early this morning, seeing mostly clear skies over most of the area (outside of a few higher clouds). Warm/muggy this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest later today, but remains well north of the area. Dewpoints will be a couple degrees higher today compared to yesterday as southerly flow ahead of the boundary allows for an uptick in moisture. Afternoon heat indices will top out between 100 and 104F, with a few spots potentially exceeding 105 for an hour or two. Due to the limited coverage and short duration of any 105+ heat indices, opted for no heat headlines today. Afternoon high temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s. Still can`t rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorms across our western Piedmont counties late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of the local area. Remaining warm and muggy tonight with lows in the mid 70s and upper 70s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and muggy ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday with heat indices climbing to near 105. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday as the front moves crosses the area. On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down across the east with the center of the high retrograding towards the SW CONUS. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned cold front approaches and moves through the area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included roughly the northern half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO, with a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the area as the widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place already over the region. In addition to the flooding threat, strong to severe storms will also be possible due to the high instability and enhanced flow aloft/at the surface over the local area. SPC has placed far northern portions of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be the main threats Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s to potentially mid 90s in spots with dew points rising back into the mid 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. The front likely slows as it drops south on Friday, allowing for showers and storms chances to continue (greatest coverage S-SE). WPC has most of the area in a Day 3 Marginal ERO, with a Slight ERO just south of the area. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday ranging from around 80 across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday (especially across the far SE/along the Albemarle Sound). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist through most of the 18z TAF period. One exception could come from early morning fog but most guidance keeps reduced VSBY confined to the Piedmont, away from the TAF sites. Winds generally below 10 kt today, highly variable near the coast as sea/land breeze influences dominate. SCT cumulus develop again Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with with locally degraded flight conditions and gusty winds. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... - Benign marine conditions continue through late week. - Confidence continues to increase as a stronger cold front approaches the area late this week with widespread Small Craft Advisories likely from Friday through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate over the region, allowing for benign marine conditions. Winds are currently SW and light around 5 kt, expected to become SE this afternoon, briefly increasing in the afternoon and evening to around 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt near the mouth of the Ches. Bay. Although winds increase slightly, sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. As a stronger cold front approaches the region, the pressure gradient will increase slightly Thursday afternoon and evening allowing winds to become 10-15 kt. Local wind probs show only a 20% chance of sustained 18 kt winds in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Thursday afternoon/evening, so not anticipating any headlines to begin tomorrow at this time. Waves are currently around 1 ft both in the Ches. Bay and the coastal waters and will remaining benign at 1-2 ft through Thursday. A stronger cold front will drop from the north on Friday before stalling over the area as low pressure develops. This front will have relatively strong CAA (for this time of year) causing winds and waves to significantly increase. The front is expected to move through most of the area by Friday afternoon with winds shifting out of the NNE, increasing throughout the day into late Saturday. Winds will peak Saturday evening at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the Ches. Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the coastal waters. SCAs are expected to be needed for this period. Will note that winds may gust up to 34 kt, but models are not in agreement. Local wind probs only have a 10-20% chance of gusts of 34 kt on Saturday evening, while the ECMWF ensemble guidance has a 40-60% chance. Current thinking is a few gusts of 34 kt for a few hours is possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and assessed. With the increased winds, waves and seas will subsequently increase. Wave heights will increase beginning Friday afternoon and remain elevated through early next week. Seas will peak at 6-8 ft with waves peaking at 3-4 ft in the upper Ches. Bay and 5-6 ft in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Saturday afternoon/evening. Waves and seas will slowly decline Sunday and Monday. A low risk of rip current will continue through Thursday ahead of the cold front. Anticipated low risk on Friday as well, as wind and waves begin to increase in the afternoon/evening. Behind the front with stronger NE winds, the threat for rip current will also increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239753 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure is expected to dominate over the region through the middle of next week, which will result in hot and precipitation-free conditions with heat risk concerns, especially heading into the weekend and early next week. Heat indices could exceed 111 degrees in some areas between Friday and Monday, which could potentially warrant heat advisories on these days. Current guidance is showing that inland portions of the eastern counties (particularly Kenedy and Willacy) are most likely to be impacted by potential heat advisories, since the humidity will be higher in these areas due to coastal proximity. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s/lower 100s through the middle of next week. Low temperatures will consistently be in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will diurnally cycle between being more southerly during the day and more southeasterly overnight, but should remain light to moderate. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all airports with a few lower clouds that could have some MVFR ceilings. Winds are expected to be light and variable, with an overall southerly component. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle, favorable seas are expected through the middle of next week with light to moderate south-southeasterly winds and low wave heights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 80 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 94 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239752 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hazardous heat continues today and into late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM today across all of east central Florida for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. - Shower and storm chances will be near-normal through mid to late week (30-50%), especially over the interior, with rain chances then increasing through the weekend into early next week (up to 50-70%). && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today-Tonight...Hazardous heat continues today as a reinforcing mid level ridge builds westward across Florida. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the humidity will generate peak heat index values up to 108 to 112 degrees this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida from Noon to 7 PM. Moisture continues to increase today, with PW values increasing to 1.8-2.0 inches. This should allow the trend of gradually increasing rain chances to continue, with shower and storm coverage more closer to normal today (PoPs around 30-50 percent). This scattered convection will help bring some relief to the heat later in the afternoon and evening. Ridge axis south of the area will produce a light offshore flow, but the east coast sea breeze will still form and just move a little slower inland this afternoon. Should see some initial shower/storm development along and inland of the sea breeze, and then hi-res guidance is indicating late day boundary collisions and higher storm coverage will focus inland, west of I-95. Scattered convection will linger into the evening, with some of this activity potentially pushing back toward the coast, especially north of the Treasure Coast. Model soundings still show some lingering drier air aloft, with DCAPE values approaching around to just above 1000 J/kg. Therefore similar to yesterday, any storms that develop will have the potential to become strong, producing frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-55 mph. Weak steering winds will also lead to slow storm motion, with locally heavy rainfall around 1-3 inches possible from storms, leading to temporary urban/poor drainage flooding concerns. Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridge across Florida will move slowly westward into late week, with hazardous heat persisting. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 105-110 degrees. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed each day through late week for portions if not all of east central Florida. However, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop each afternoon and evening (rain chances ~30-50 percent), bringing some relief to the heat later in the day. Some stronger storms will still be possible each day, with the main threats continuing to be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding. Greatest storm coverage will still focus west of I-95, with convection then winding down into late evening. Mostly dry conditions then forecast during the overnight hours, with it remaining warm and muggy, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...A front will push southward into north Florida during the weekend and linger north of the area through early next week. This will lead to increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, with PoPs up to 50-70 percent each afternoon/evening. This will help bring some relief to the ongoing heat wave, but highs will still be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will still remain elevated, but look to largely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, around 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions generally forecast through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area over the next several days, with winds out of the west-southwest in the morning/overnight hours and becoming southeast each afternoon as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds speeds forecast to overall remain below 15 knots with seas 1-2 feet in the nearshore waters and up to 3 feet at times in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible over the waters, especially overnight and into the morning hours. Majority of afternoon convection looks to remain over land, but a weak offshore steering flow may allow for some storms to make it back toward the coast and just offshore during the afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Isolated showers have begun to develop sporadically across east central Florida. Models continue to show and increase in shower and storm development between 20-24Z for the I-4 corridor (including MCO). Tempos have been included. However, a few storms could linger in this area through around 1-2Z. Otherwise, lower confidence in any shower and storm timing for the coast, where coverage is expected to be lower. Have maintained VCTS, due to the few showers that have already developed along the sea breeze prior to 18Z. By tonight, drier conditions are forecast. Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected after 18Z Thursday. Light southwesterly flow will become east to southeast in the afternoon and evening hours, as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Wind speeds remaining around 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 94 77 94 / 30 40 10 30 MCO 78 95 79 96 / 30 50 10 50 MLB 78 93 79 92 / 20 40 10 40 VRB 75 93 76 93 / 20 40 10 40 LEE 78 95 78 95 / 20 40 10 40 SFB 79 96 79 96 / 30 50 10 40 ORL 79 96 79 96 / 30 50 10 50 FPR 75 93 74 93 / 20 40 10 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239751 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 131 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 SHRA and a few TSRA can affect the east coastal terminals this afternoon and slowly move inland. APF will see MVFR conditions due to lingering shower activity through afternoon due to slow steering flow. VFR returning tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 77 93 77 93 / 10 30 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 95 / 10 30 10 20 Homestead 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 81 92 / 10 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 81 96 81 96 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 93 79 93 / 20 30 10 10 Boca Raton 79 94 79 94 / 20 30 10 10 Naples 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239749 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The main story continues to be the prolonged heat across the area. We`ll see one more day of heat indices rising into the 105 to 110 degree range, before the temps begin to drop (though only a couple of degrees). Upper ridging will remained anchored to our south, while a ridge builds over the Western CONUS. A weak trough will move through the Great Lakes, dampening the ridge somewhat over the area. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to our south will keep a southerly flow across the region, keeping a moist airmass in place. Given the weakening ridge, thunderstorm coverage may be a bit more today than we saw yesterday, especially given the current isolated to scattered storms moving across the region. Despite the storms, temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s once again today. While we may mix a bit this afternoon, given the fact that dewpoints are currently in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, we should still see those heat indices reach heat advisory criteria. Regardless, low temperatures have remained in the upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat. The prolonged nature of these conditions will exacerbate any heat related illnesses. As mentioned above, we`ll start to see a downward trend in temperatures as we head into the weekend. Upper ridging will remain to our south, while the aforementioned tough digs into the TN Valley. This may provide a greater coverage of thunderstorms on Thursday, as a weak frontal boundary moves into northern Alabama. The axis of the trough will move off the East Coast and generally remain in place through the weekend with northerly flow persisting over the local area. The combination of drier air and a greater coverage of storms will keep temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend. Uncertainty is high with regard to how far south the front reaches, though guidance is fairly consistent on the boundary reaching our area and lingering during the first part of the new work week. Thus, scattered to numerous PoPs were maintained through the forecast package. /73 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 General VFR conditions with local MVFR/VFR conditions in convection along the AL Gulf coast were noted at 17z. Am expecting this convection to spread out and affect area TAF sites this afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move inland this afternoon, bringing local drops in conditions to low end MVFR levels. The convection will weaken and decrease in coverage this evening as the day`s heat is lost. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast in the morning, bringing local drops in conditions to mid MVFR levels. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to moderate west to southwesterly flow will continue through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less. /73 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239748 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hot and dry for most today. But watching thunderstorms to our east that could impact our southeast counties later today / evening - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Outlook for next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today`s weather has featured one surprise. In fact, there`s a chance you have already noticed this surprise. Dew points were forecast to be somewhat lower today than yesterday. But a lot more dry air has mixed down to the surface today than expected, allowing dew points to drop significantly. A few spots in the Brazos Valley are reporting dew points as low as the 40s! Meanwhile, dew points as low as the 50s are being reported as far south and east as Bush Airport. Feeling more like El Paso than Houston today! While the lower humidity is great, the drier air may allow temperatures to climb higher than recent days. As long as the approaching higher clouds from the east do not dampen warming too much, I suspect many inland locations will be up around 100 degrees this afternoon. The aforementioned higher clouds are associated with thunderstorm activity over the Louisiana and the Gulf. It`s not out of the questions that some of this shower and thunderstorm activity could make it into our southeastern counties this evening. We`ll be watching it closely. A mid-level disturbance over SE CONUS will bring increasing lift and moisture to the region Thursday into the weekend. Daily chances of showers/thunderstorms will gradually increase with each day through Saturday. Actual temperatures become less hot while humidity rises during this time frame. Not everyone will see a shower/thunderstorm every day. But those that do could experience locally heavy rainfall. By early next week, a strong ridge is expected to build to our west while a mid/upper trough digs southward over the Midwest. The trough axis is expected to extend southward into the lower Mississippi River Valley, and could bring enough lift to our region to keep a daily risk of showers/thunderstorms in the picture through next Tuesday. But a subtle eastward shift in the aforementioned high would bring drier and hotter conditions. A shift to the west could signal a wetter pattern. For now, the Monday-Tuesday forecast features isolated to scattered showers/storms and seasonable hot humid conditions. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the day with FEW to SCT mid- level clouds. Light northwesterly winds are expected to persist through the late morning or early afternoon, then switching to southerly by the afternoon, then returning to light and variable tonight. Can`t out rule some patchy fog developing late tonight at SGR, LBX, or CXO. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Low seas and generally light winds expected through early next week. The daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually climb through the end of the week. Isolated thunderstorms possible over the Gulf today. Though winds and seas are expected to be low, locally much higher winds and rougher seas will be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. In some cases, gusty winds can extend far from their associated thunderstorm. The highest rain and thunderstorm chances are on Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 30 Houston (IAH) 80 97 80 98 / 10 30 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 83 91 / 10 30 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239747 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 PM 30.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1221 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Continued hot and humid conditions this afternoon, along with lower rainfall chances as high pressure ridging aloft builds in from the West and PWATs have fallen below 2 inches. These conditions will lead to a slower start to the Gulf coast sea breeze in the Southwest steering flow which will start to develop scattered showers and storms over inland areas by the early-mid afternoon hours which will slowly track towards the Northeast around 10 mph and reach the East Coast sea breeze along the I-95/US-17 corridors by the late afternoon/early evening hours with some strong storms possible with gusty winds to 40-60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall/flooding threat due to the slow storm movement. This activity should push offshore around sunset with mainly dry and humid conditions for the overnight hours, before the Southwest flow helps to develop isolated showers and storms along the FL Big Bend/NE Gulf which may track into inland NE FL around sunrise. Temps will remain at above normal levels this afternoon with the late start to convection with widespread highs into the mid/upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the Atlantic Beaches, with peak heat indices around 110F and current heat advisory in place looks good. Low temps only fall into the mid/upper 70s inland tonight, and around 80F along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Airmass remains too warm and relatively mixed for any significant fog late tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Thursday, with the ridge extending across south FL. A trough of low pressure will located across the southeastern US Thursday. The prevailing low level flow will be from the southwest between these two features. While weak ridging over the region will help to suppress convection, the combination of diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions will keep isolated to scattered storms in the forecast. There could be an increase in convection near the east coast during the afternoon, as the Gulf sea breeze meets up with the east coast sea breeze near the I95 corridor. Temperatures will continue above seasonal averages. Due to Gulf sea breeze, highs will range from the mid 90s inland, to mid to upper 90s east. A heat advisory has been issued for Thursday, due to combination of hot temperatures and high humidity. The high center will move further away to the southeast Friday, as the trough digs along the southeastern US coast. Lows in the mid 70s will be common, except upper 70s coast. The trough will remain along the southeastern US coast, extending across SE GA. Weak lows may form in this trough Friday. Precipitation chances will begin to increase on Friday as convergence associated with troughing works along with diurnal heating and increasing moisture. Convective activity will diminish with loss of heating Friday night. Highs Friday in the mid to upper 90s expected with lows Friday night in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The trough axis will sink to near the GA/FL line on Saturday. The chance for storms, some possible strong to severe, will increase with the boundary overhead. With the expected precipitation and cloud coverage, temperatures will be a little lower, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Showers with isolated storms may linger into Saturday night, due to the trough, with lows in the middle 70s. On Sunday and Monday, the trough will lay out across northern FL, with high pressure building to the northwest. Precipitation chances will remain on the high side, with potential for strong to severe storms continuing. With the boundary across FL, cooler air will move south into SE GA, so highs will range from the mid to upper 80s over SE GA, to the lower 90s over NE FL. With the trough in place, convective chances lingering into the overnights can not be ruled out. Lows in the mid 70s will be common Sunday night and Monday night. The trough weakens Tuesday into Wednesday, as high pressure builds toward the east. While precipitation chances will remain above normal, the potential will be lower than over the weekend. Temperatures will be near to a little above average. The flow is not very strong this period, so storms which form will likely move fairly slow, leading to potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Forecast on track for mostly VFR conds through the period. SCT to BKN cumulus development in the 4000-5000 ft range still on track at all TAF sites, with PROB30 groups still needed for all NE FL TAF sites in the 17-21Z time frame at GNV, and in the 19-23Z time frame for the remainder of the NE FL TAF sites for MVFR Conds in gusty TSRA activity as the Gulf Coast sea breeze meets with the East Coast sea breeze later this afternoon, returning to VFR conds after sunset tonight and will only include some patchy fog at VQQ due to the low fog chances in this pattern. Will leave out PROB30 groups at SSI as rainfall chances remain too low for TSRA chances through the evening hours. General SW flow at 6-8 knots today, except for SE winds 8-10 knots at the Coastal TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A trough of low pressure near the Georgia waters will lift northward today as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. This regime will then change little through at least Friday, which will result in a light offshore wind at night and a developing sea breeze during the daytime each day. A frontal boundary will approach the local waters from the north late Friday, with a surge of South to Southwest winds close to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday Night. This frontal boundary will stall just north of the Georgia waters for the weekend, resulting in an active weather pattern and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate rip current risk through the end of the week with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 102/2010 102/1999 102/1999 Gainesville, FL 100/1896 100/1892 100/1896 Craig Airport, FL 101/2010 101/1999 101/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 101/1961 102/1999 100/1999 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 81/1872 78/1941 82/1873 Gainesville, FL 78/2010 77/2011 77/1893 Craig Airport, FL 80/2010 79/2011 79/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/1999 77/1999 77/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 97 76 97 / 30 20 10 40 SSI 80 95 80 96 / 20 20 10 20 JAX 77 98 77 99 / 20 30 10 30 SGJ 78 95 77 96 / 30 20 0 20 GNV 76 96 75 96 / 20 20 0 30 OCF 76 95 76 95 / 20 30 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030- 031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236- 237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233- 236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1023 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Lowered rain chances this afternoon a few percentage points given slight downtrend in hi-res guidance for activity and the presence of more significant dry mid-level air compared to this point yesterday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Dangerous heat continues to be the driving headline for the next several days. A heat advisory is in effect for heat indices of 105- 111F this afternoon from 11AM to 7PM ET or 10AM to 6PM CT. The tri-state region sits between two mid level height centers; one over the southern Plains and the other over the Bahamas. PWATs across the area is over 2 inches. Overnight convection is ongoing through southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. This area is not handled well in the CAMs and raising pops up over model guidance through the overnight hours. Did add some patchy fog closer to daybreak especially in areas that received rainfall from yesterday. Ridge over the Bahamas builds westward today adding drier air and increasing subsidence over the northeast Gulf into the Florida Big Bend. PWATS drop this afternoon down towards 1.7 inches while 2+ inches remain through the Florida panhandle northeast towards south central Georgia. Better rain chances will follow this trend with 30- 40% in the Big Bend to 60% from the panhandle into southeast Alabama. Gusty to strong winds could occur with any stronger storms as DCAPE is in excess of 1000 J/kg. Highs today are a little lower compared to previous days with readings in the mid/upper 90s. Higher dewpoints will reside over the western half of the CWA today but this area will have the better chances of experiencing convection. Drier air over the Big Bend will allow some mixing to occur but will have less convection and more sun. Regardless, heat indices will run in the 105-111F range today and no changes were made to the advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A forecast 595dm high will be centered over the FL Peninsula for the start of the short term. This will limit our rain chances for Thursday afternoon and keep our temperatures very warm in the mid to upper 90s. With the lack of respite from widespread rain and continued warm dew points, heat advisories may be possible for Thursday with widespread heat indices ranging from 106-110 degrees. PoPs for Thursday range from 30-50 percent with higher values in our central time zone counties. As we move into Friday, an upper level trough from the north will start to break down the ridge. This will gradually increase our rain chances as well as gradually decrease our temperatures heading towards the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 For the Long term, the ridge breaks down as the upper level trough will move in from the north. Our PoPs will be increasing with widespread PoPs of 60-80 percent each afternoon. Gratefully, temperatures will be less hot with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s for the long term. The good news is that heat indices will be below advisory criteria, finally giving us a break. However, overnight lows will remain in the mid 70s. Through the weekend, the showers and thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall as evident of PWATs around 2.5". From Friday through Sunday, our region is highlighted in a Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall. Throughout the entire period, we could see a widespread 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 MVFR conds have yet to transpire at the terminals but a few locations are reporting IFR conditions. The 12Z TAFs will remove the mention unless conditions develop. Best chances for TS today will be at DHN and ABY later this afternoon. Continued the PROB30 at ECP and TLH 19-22Z for any seabreeze convection that may develop. Confidence is low at the moment. Drier air working across the Big Bend and southern Georgia should keep low rain chances at VLD and do not have a mention here. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become more numerous as we head into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that will be the primary weather concerns for folks outside through the week. While rain chances will stick around today into Thursday, rain chances will decrease some as drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but dispersions will begin to creep up slowly through the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 40 10 40 10 Panama City 91 81 91 81 / 40 10 40 20 Dothan 94 75 93 76 / 50 20 40 10 Albany 96 75 95 77 / 40 20 30 20 Valdosta 96 75 97 76 / 30 10 20 10 Cross City 94 76 94 76 / 10 0 30 0 Apalachicola 90 81 91 80 / 20 0 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239745 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1002 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Conditions changed somewhat over the past day across the Florida Keys. Winds across the Keys are more consistently southeasterly near 5 knots, and temperatures along the island chain are on track to reach 90F. Morning KBYX radar scans detect occasional shallow showers across the Florida Straits, and GOES-East Day Cloud Phase observations see slight tongues of high altitude cirrus cloud and weak lines of cumulus near the Marathon Humps. The morning KKEY sounding highlights the oncoming period of dry air. The PWAT observation was near 1.5 inches, below the 10th percentile. Switching to Total PWAT satellite observations from both GOES-East and CIMSS MIMIC PWAT retrievals indicate even drier air exists east of the Keys. The conclusion is that no changes are required for the current forecast package. Even though the atmosphere is dry and low level forcing is limited, isolated showers can and will pop up over the CWA. Warm, muggy, and extremely sunny weather will bring about the end of July. && .MARINE... Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a limp western flank of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys. This will result in light broadly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. The ridge will strengthen modestly as it lifts towards Central Florida. As a result, marine winds will nudge upwards slightly. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 841 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAF period. Dry air will limit shower and CIG coverage, though short lived MVFR CIGs are possible near afternoon showers. Near surface winds will remain southeasterly from 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1953, the daily record low temperature of 67F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 92 82 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 90 82 90 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239744 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 946 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 947 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds today. Early this morning, seeing mostly clear skies over most of the area (outside of a few higher clouds). Warm/muggy this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest later today, but remains well north of the area. Dewpoints will be a couple degrees higher today compared to yesterday as southerly flow ahead of the boundary allows for an uptick in moisture. Afternoon heat indices will top out between 100 and 104F, with a few spots potentially exceeding 105 for an hour or two. Due to the limited coverage and short duration of any 105+ heat indices, opted for no heat headlines today. Afternoon high temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s. Still can`t rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorms across our western Piedmont counties late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of the local area. Remaining warm and muggy tonight with lows in the mid 70s and upper 70s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and muggy ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday with heat indices climbing to near 105. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday as the front moves crosses the area. On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down across the east with the center of the high retrograding towards the SW CONUS. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned cold front approaches and moves through the area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included roughly the northern half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO, with a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the area as the widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place already over the region. In addition to the flooding threat, strong to severe storms will also be possible due to the high instability and enhanced flow aloft/at the surface over the local area. SPC has placed far northern portions of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be the main threats Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s to potentially mid 90s in spots with dew points rising back into the mid 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. The front likely slows as it drops south on Friday, allowing for showers and storms chances to continue (greatest coverage S-SE). WPC has most of the area in a Day 3 Marginal ERO, with a Slight ERO just south of the area. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday ranging from around 80 across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday (especially across the far SE/along the Albemarle Sound). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist at all terminals for the 12z/30 TAF period. Patchy fog, mostly towards the piedmont, will lift this morning. Winds are calm to light, expected to stay light at 5-10 kt this afternoon, mostly out of the SW. SCT cumulus clouds are expected to redevelop inland today as mixing gets underway. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected until Thursday when a cold front approaches the area from the N. Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with degraded flight conditions likely in and around convection. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... - Benign marine conditions continue through late week. - Confidence continues to increase as a stronger cold front approaches the area late this week with widespread Small Craft Advisories likely from Friday through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate over the region, allowing for benign marine conditions. Winds are currently SW and light around 5 kt, expected to become SE this afternoon, briefly increasing in the afternoon and evening to around 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt near the mouth of the Ches. Bay. Although winds increase slightly, sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. As a stronger cold front approaches the region, the pressure gradient will increase slightly Thursday afternoon and evening allowing winds to become 10-15 kt. Local wind probs show only a 20% chance of sustained 18 kt winds in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Thursday afternoon/evening, so not anticipating any headlines to begin tomorrow at this time. Waves are currently around 1 ft both in the Ches. Bay and the coastal waters and will remaining benign at 1-2 ft through Thursday. A stronger cold front will drop from the north on Friday before stalling over the area as low pressure develops. This front will have relatively strong CAA (for this time of year) causing winds and waves to significantly increase. The front is expected to move through most of the area by Friday afternoon with winds shifting out of the NNE, increasing throughout the day into late Saturday. Winds will peak Saturday evening at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the Ches. Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the coastal waters. SCAs are expected to be needed for this period. Will note that winds may gust up to 34 kt, but models are not in agreement. Local wind probs only have a 10-20% chance of gusts of 34 kt on Saturday evening, while the ECMWF ensemble guidance has a 40-60% chance. Current thinking is a few gusts of 34 kt for a few hours is possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and assessed. With the increased winds, waves and seas will subsequently increase. Wave heights will increase beginning Friday afternoon and remain elevated through early next week. Seas will peak at 6-8 ft with waves peaking at 3-4 ft in the upper Ches. Bay and 5-6 ft in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Saturday afternoon/evening. Waves and seas will slowly decline Sunday and Monday. A low risk of rip current will continue through Thursday ahead of the cold front. Anticipated low risk on Friday as well, as wind and waves begin to increase in the afternoon/evening. Behind the front with stronger NE winds, the threat for rip current will also increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239743 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 927 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail east of the area for most of the week, along with a trough of low pressure inland. A cold front may stall near the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid and high-level debris cloudiness generated by convection that sparked over the Charleston Tri-County into Colleton County earlier this morning has slowed temperatures rises more than expected across northern areas this morning. GOES-E visible data do show some breaks are starting to occur in that area with sunny spells being observed at times. Near term guidance still suggests highs should top out in the lower 90s across the Tri- County and the remainder of southern South Carolina with mid- upper 90s across Southeast Georgia as debris cloudiness thins and a cumulus field develops. This should allow max heat indices to reach the 103-107 range well inland with 108-112 south of I-16 and up along south coastal South Carolina later this afternoon prior to the onset of convection. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but the far interior from 11 AM until 8 PM, although the advisory is looking increasingly more marginal for Charleston County and coastal Colleton County where the delayed rise in temperatures and a possible early start to convection may keep heat indices near to or just slightly below Heat Advisory criteria. Depending on radar and short term temperatures trends, portions of the Heat Advisory may be cancelled with the early afternoon routine forecast package. Convection still looks to concentrate across the interior later today, possibly working closer to the coast late this afternoon into this evening pending mesoscale boundary interactions. The primary concerns are heavy rain/minor flooding with a few strong tstms thrown into the mix. Typical for this time of year, an isolated pulse severe tstm with damaging winds from downbursts can not be completely ruled out. Tonight: Convection is expected to decrease in coverage. However, given ample moisture and presence of instability, it is likely that at least isolated convection will persist much of the night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday: Subtropical ridge begins to weaken by late week, as multiple shortwaves aloft carve out a longer wave trough across the eastern CONUS. This will support a continued risk for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. In regard to temperatures, look for highs to remain in the mid to upper 90s, with perhaps a few locations across southeastern Georgia flirting with 100 degrees. Similar to days past, will see heat indices peak between 105-108 degrees inland to 108-112 degrees along/east of I-95 prior to the onset of any convection. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed, but these will largely be driven by the timing and extent of afternoon convection - so stay tuned for future updates! Saturday: Broad upper level trough and its attendant sfc cold front continue to sag southeastward across the region Friday night, resulting in a fairly wet and unsettled pattern over the weekend. While showers and storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning, expect the better chances to arrive during the afternoon hours as instability and moisture increase. Temperatures during this time will also be notably cooler, as highs only rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s under cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dreary conditions continue Sunday and Monday as the aforementioned front stalls along the coast. With PWATs greater than 2 inches, could certainly see periods of locally heavy rainfall, which may result in flash flooding. As noted in the previous discussion, confidence still remains too low at this time to determine if the risk for flash flooding will be widespread enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Do think it`s worth noting, however, that WPC`s latest 7 day QPF forecast does highlight totals potentially reaching 3 to 5 inches across our area, with a bulk of those values expected to fall over a 3 day period (Saturday through Monday). Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days, especially for those folks who have outdoor plans! Otherwise, look for seasonally cool temperatures to prevail for the remainder of the extended period. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS and KJZI: Expect convection to redevelop this afternoon then push inland later in the afternoon/evening. Flight restrictions possible with any showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect a return to VFR conditions after 00z 31 July. KSAV: VFR conditions likely to prevail through this morning. By afternoon, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected. So, have kept tempo for convection through mid/late afternoon with flight restrictions possible. Expect return to VFR after 00z 31 July. Extended Aviation Forecast: The risk for flight restrictions due to showers/tstms will persist each afternoon/evening with chances ramping up over the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: No highlights are expected. Atlantic high pressure will remain centered southeast of the waters, with an inland trough of low pressure. Generally southerly winds of 5-15 kts, strongest near the coast in the afternoon as the seabreeze develops. Seas 2 to 3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm offshore of the GA waters. Scattered mainly morning and late night showers and thunderstorms. Thursday through Sunday: Southerly wind regime will prevail through Friday. Winds will begin to turn northeast over the weekend as a cold front stalls out near the area. Winds will generally remain 15 kt or less through the period, although winds may get as high as 15- 20 kt over the weekend across mainly the South Carolina waters as the gradient pinches a bit behind the cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 31: KCHS: 80/2022 KSAV: 80/2010 August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ047>052. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239741 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:15 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 855 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 855 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving onshore from around the Tampa Bay region northward early this morning as the south to southwest flow has begun to take hold. Morning TBW sounding confirms this with mean wind up to 3 km from 200 degrees at 5 knots (Regime 4). Also starting out plenty moist with sounding indicating precipitable water of 2.07 inches. Thus, the convection we`re seeing should continue to develop and become more scattered as it moves inland this afternoon and evening with highest rain chances over the interior. Have tweaked morning PoPs to be more in line with current conditions, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 855 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Isolated showers will continue around Tampa Bay early this morning with more scattered showers and thunderstorms developing near the entire west coast later this morning and then moving inland during this afternoon and evening. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in the convection, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight/toward morning around the Tampa Bay region. Light and variable winds early this morning will become southwest to west and increase to 7 to 10 knots this afternoon, then diminish this evening. && .DISCUSSION... A moist and unstable environment remains over the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms still ongoing early this morning on old boundaries mainly around Tampa Bay that should diminish further into the morning hours. A heat advisory remains in effect as apparent Ts reach 108-112 in many locations again today. The large heat dome is expected to slowly move out of the area later today as we transition into SW to W low level steering flow while the surface ridge axis shifts southward to end the work week. This pattern favors morning convection near the coast, shifting inland and and increasing in coverage over the interior and E FL. Over the weekend, a weakening cold front is expected to stall in N Florida pushing the surface ridge even further S keeping scattered to numerous storms in the forecast, especially across the Nature Coast closer to the boundary. The more typical SE summertime flow pattern is expected to return next week. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure will remain in the region and meander over the Eastern Gulf with generally light winds and seas. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day through the week. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours could accompany these storms and make for localized hazardous conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Summertime condition continue with hot and humid conditions with light winds and high RHs daily. The afternoon sea breeze will move inland with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 83 94 82 / 20 10 30 10 FMY 94 79 94 79 / 30 10 40 20 GIF 97 78 96 78 / 40 20 40 10 SRQ 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 30 10 SPG 91 82 91 82 / 20 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1239740 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 759 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 749 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast on track for continued hot and humid conditions today along with lower rainfall chances as high pressure ridging aloft builds in from the West and PWATs have fallen below 2 inches. These conditions will lead to a slower start to the Gulf coast sea breeze development in the Southwest steering flow which will start to develop scattered showers and storms over inland areas by the early-mid afternoon hours which will slowly track towards the Northeast around 10 mph and reach the East Coast sea breeze along the I-95/US-17 corridors by the late afternoon/early evening hours with some strong storms possible with gusty winds to 40-60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall/flooding threat due to the slow storm movement. This activity should push offshore around sunset with mainly dry and humid conditions for the overnight hours, before the Southwest flow helps to develop isolated showers and storms along the FL Big Bend/NE Gulf which may track into inland NE FL around sunrise. Temps will remain at above normal levels today with the late start to convection with widespread highs into the mid/upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the Atlantic Beaches, with peak heat indices around 110F and current heat advisory in place looks good. Low temps only fall into the mid/upper 70s inland tonight, and around 80F along the Atlantic Coastal areas. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Surface troughing shifts just north of the area today as stacked high pressure "re-builds" into the region from the east. Though this version of high pressure will not be as strong as the "heat dome" that has been over us for the last several days, it will still induce a light southwesterly flow and enough subsidence for above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the region. The high will bring a slightly drier airmass aloft with it, which will help to mix down slightly lower dew points as compared to Tuesday. However, still looking at peak heat indices in the 105 to 110 range by this afternoon, and therefore have placed our whole region in a Heat Advisory. Regarding convective chances: slightly drier air and more subsidence does look to limit convective coverage later today, albeit only slightly as still looking at mostly a 30 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, the higher end of those chances being generally north of Waycross where marginally higher layer moisture and troughing influence remain. As per usual, some isolated stronger storms will be possible as well, capable of very heavy downpours and downbursts in the 40-50 mph range. Any remaining convection will slowly dissipate after sunset tonight, with the highest chances of lingering showers and storms being interior GA. Low temps in the mid to upper 70s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Subsidence will strengthen further on Thursday as ridging aloft continues to retrograde slowly westward, with this feature being positioned directly over our area by Thursday afternoon. Only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection is expected to develop along inland moving mesoscale boundaries, with another collision likely towards sunset along the I-95 corridor. The main hazard with any pulsing storms later on Thursday afternoon and evening will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes. Very hot conditions will otherwise continue, with highs again soaring to the mid to upper 90s and maximum heat index values peaking solidly within Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 F) during the afternoon hours. Lingering convection along the I-95 corridor / coastal locations early on Thursday evening will again dissipate before midnight, with leftover debris clouds thinning out quickly later in the evening. Low level southwesterly flow will keep lows in the mid to upper 70s for inland locations and around 80 at coastal locations. Deep-layered ridging will continue to retrograde slowly westward on Friday and will begin to flatten as it becomes positioned to the west of our area during the afternoon hours in response to a trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes region. Moisture will begin to pool ahead of a cold front will that will enter the southeastern states on Friday afternoon, but these higher moisture values may not enter inland portions of southeast GA until after sunset. Coverage of afternoon convection should remain widely scattered on Friday, but an uptick in coverage and intensity may be possible across inland southeast GA on Friday evening as upstream activity and convective outflows migrate into the area from the north and northwest. Friday will be another oppressively hot and humid day, with highs yet again soaring to the mid and upper 90s and peak heat indices likely reaching Heat Advisory criteria at most locations. Convection should remain confined to southeast GA on Friday night, with lows again only falling to the mid and upper 70s across our region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Deep-layered troughing will continue to dig over the eastern half of the nation this weekend and early next week. The aforementioned cold front will push into southeast GA on Saturday afternoon, and we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop by the late morning and early afternoon hours for locations to the north of I-10, with activity then overspreading the rest of our area during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong storms will be possible, especially along the I-95 corridor in northeast and north central FL, where low level west-southwesterly flow will focus mesoscale boundary collisions later in the afternoon. Saturday should be the final day of Heat Advisory conditions for our region, with highs likely climbing to the low and mid 90s, especially for locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, where peak heat index values will likely reach the 108-112 degree range yet again. Showers and thunderstorms may continue to develop into the overnight hours on Saturday night along a stalling frontal boundary, with lows in the 70s area-wide. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue area-wide on Sunday and Monday as the frontal boundary remains stalled near the FL/GA border. The threat for localized flooding may increase early next week, especially at urban and normally flood prone locations. Cloud cover and early development of convection should keep highs in the mid to upper 80s for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, ranging to the lower 90s across north central FL. Convection may linger well into the evening hours on Sunday night, but may take on a more diurnal nature by Monday night. Lows will remain in the 70s region wide each night. "Heat Wave" ridging over the Desert Southwest will migrate eastward towards the Southern Plains states during the early to middle portions of next week. This feature will keep a rather sharp trough in place from the Great Lakes region southward through the Tennessee Valley to the FL panhandle. This weather pattern will maintain a deep southwesterly flow pattern across our area, which will promote widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze, with strong storm potential continuing along the I-95 corridor as mesoscale boundaries collide during the mid to late afternoon hours. The frontal boundary stuck over our region will begin to dissolve as Atlantic ridging builds westward across the FL peninsula, which should promote a more typical diurnal pattern to our daily thunderstorm activity than compared to what we expect on Sunday and Monday. Highs will thus begin to climb back to the low and mid 90s due to less morning convection by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Lower rainfall chances today as ridging aloft and slightly drier airmass has re-built into the region from the Atlantic and likely will go with PROB30 groups at all TAF sites as SW flow will have the Gulf Coast dominate and push inland and meet the East Coast sea breeze at most TAF sites during the 19-23Z time frame or so with some gusty winds possible. For now VFR conds this morning with PROB30 MVFR conds in TSRA activity this afternoon, returning to VFR conds after sunset tonight and will only include some patchy fog at VQQ due to the low fog chances in this pattern. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A trough of low pressure near GA waters will lift northward through Wednesday as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. This regime will then change little through at least Friday, which will result in a light offshore wind at night and a developing sea breeze during the daytime each day. A frontal boundary will approach area waters by Friday Night, and stall just north of or over GA waters for the weekend, resulting in an active pattern and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be low to moderate through the next several days with a sea breeze developing daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Southwesterly surface and transport winds will gradually strengthen after sunrise today, with breezy transport speeds expected this afternoon across northeast and north central FL. These winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create marginally high daytime dispersion values across the Suwannee Valley this afternoon, with good values forecast elsewhere inland. Onshore surface winds developing during the early to mid afternoon hours will likely keep daytime dispersion values fair at coastal locations. Breezy southwesterly transport winds will prevail both days, with these winds combining with continued elevated mixing heights to create high daytime dispersion values for inland locations along and north of I-10 on Thursday afternoon, with fair to good values at coastal locations. High daytime dispersion values are then forecast at all inland locations on Friday, with good values expected at coastal locations. Coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend through early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 102/2010 102/1999 102/1999 Gainesville, FL 100/1896 100/1892 100/1896 Craig Airport, FL 101/2010 101/1999 101/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 101/1961 102/1999 100/1999 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 81/1872 78/1941 82/1873 Gainesville, FL 78/2010 77/2011 77/1893 Craig Airport, FL 80/2010 79/2011 79/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/1999 77/1999 77/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 75 96 76 / 40 40 20 20 SSI 92 80 95 80 / 30 20 10 10 JAX 98 78 98 77 / 40 20 30 10 SGJ 96 78 96 77 / 40 30 30 10 GNV 96 76 96 75 / 50 10 30 0 OCF 95 75 94 75 / 40 20 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433- 522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239739 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. - Borderline elevated fire weather this afternoon/evening over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Limited by weak winds. - Low rain chances return Thursday into early next week, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Clear skies, light winds, and below-normal moisture are associated with a mid-level ridge and surface high currently situated over the region. Allowing for areas to patchy dense fog this morning across the inland Coastal Plains. This pattern will continue through tonight as the center of the high retrogrades westward today allowing an inverted trough to approach the Texas coast from the east and lingering over the region Thursday through Friday. The inverted trough will result in increased moisture through the weekend with PWAT values around 1.75"-2". This moisture, combined with PVA associated with the aforementioned inverted trough, will warrant low rain chances (15-25%) through the weekend. Early next week, a mid-level high begins to move into the region from the west along with a shortwave rounding the periphery of the high allowing for low rain chances to continue through the first half of the week but the best rain chances remain off to the northeast. A minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts will continue Wednesday, then increase to moderate/major the remainder of the week into the weekend and early next week due to increasing moisture and air temperatures. surface temperatures in the lower 90s will persist along the coast with values around 105 over the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will peak around 105-110 degrees the remainder of this week into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A couple of eastern sites are experiencing low CIGs and VSBYs due to some fog that developed this morning causing IFR to LIFR conditions. This is expected to last through mid morning 14Z before returning VFR as the fog mixes out. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Another round of low CIGs and VSBYs will be likely tomorrow over the eastern sites as the pattern continues to remain stagnant. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) variable flow is expected to continue through this evening before becoming a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly flow through early next week. There is a very low 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into early next week mainly over the offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Very dry air with minimum relative humidity around 20% along with Energy Release Component (ERC) values above the 75th percentile, and occasional wind gusts approaching 20 mph will once again lead to a greater risk for elevated fire weather this afternoon over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, sustained winds are expected to remain less than 15 mph, thus limiting the fire weather threat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 98 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 100 75 98 76 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 103 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 101 74 100 74 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 93 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 80 91 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239737 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 636 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to maintain dry and hot conditions across deep south Texas through next Wednesday. Although air temperatures are likely to remain near average, mainly clear skies and persistent onshore southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to add additional heat and moisture to an already very warm atmosphere, leading to widespread coverage of afternoon temperatures in the triple digits from the Rio Grande Plains to as far east as I-69 E in the lower RGV from Thursday into Sunday, with 100`s possible in Harlingen over the weekend. Factoring in the increasing moisture, daily afternoon heat indices of at least 100-110 degrees are likely, possibly surpassing 111 deg F for several hours Friday into next Tuesday, which may lead to a daily issuance of Heat Advisories and/or Special Weather Statements in deep south Texas as mid-level ridging persists over the southern plains. As such, Wednesday may be the "coolest" day of the forecast with heat risks across the region ranging from slight (level 1/4) to moderate (level 2/4) before elevating to mostly moderate by Thursday, with isolated pockets of major (level 3/4) expanding slightly Friday into next Monday. Highs in the mid 80s continue along the immediate Gulf coast and overnight temperatures across the CWA are expected to fall into the 70s to as warm as the lower 80s. A low risk of rip currents at local beaches continues tonight through the day on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Mostly clear skies and very light winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase and become moderate later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Favorable marine conditions are expected into next Wednesday as gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds continue to result in slight to moderate (1-3 feet) seas. Hot and dry conditions continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239736 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 731 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Elevated heat and humidity will continue through today. Cloudy weather with much cooler conditions are expected Thursday into Friday, with the potential for steady soaking rainfall somewhere across southern New England or the northern Mid Atlantic region. Flooding could be possible at some locations, but the location of heaviest rainfall remains unclear. An extended stretch of dry weather then develops for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are seasonable with low humidity levels this weekend, but with a warming trend for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Near record heat this afternoon with highs in the 90s and heat indices 95-100+. Not as hot along the coast given seabreezes. * Low risk of late afternoon isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms Yet another day of heat today, but not quite as humid as yesterday. This will have a couple of implications. First, the "feels like" temperatures will not be as high. Second, it will make it slightly more difficult for convection to initiate. Model forecast soundings were not overly supportive of severe weather. However, there should be enough instability generated ahead of a cold front moving onto our region later today for a few thunderstorms to develop. A few of those storms could produce strong gusty winds. Thinking the wet-bulb freezing level is too high where large hail will be a concern, but smaller hail is possible within the stronger storms. Looking like our window of opportunity for these thunderstorms is between 3-8 PM. Expecting high temperatures to come in just below record levels for today, but it will be close. The record highs for today are as follows: BOS - 98F set in 1933 BDL - 98F set in 1988 PVD - 97F set in 1949 ORH - 95F set in 1949 && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Rather quiet tonight, but becoming unsettled Thursday The aforementioned cold front moves off the coast tonight, but doesn`t move very far from the south coast into Thursday. This will set the stage for a more soaking rainfall to arrive later Thursday. While there is a risk for showers and thunderstorms are just about any time Thursday, it will most likely be late afternoon into the evening hours. Not nearly as hot Thursday, but it should still be humid, especially towards the south coast of New England. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Low pressure near or south of Southern New England could bring rounds of steady rainfall into part of Fri. Could result in flooding, but the exact locations are still uncertain. Flood Watches could be needed in later updates. * Much below normal temperatures for late in the week - highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with an onshore breeze. * Nice weekend in store with seasonable temps (cooler lows) and dry weather. * Still dry into early next week but with a warming trend. Details: Thursday Night into Friday: An anomalous weather pattern looks to be taking shape for late this week, driven by a seasonably strong high pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England and a weak area of low pressure somewhere near the mid-Atlantic states or the central Appalachians. Cloud cover and pretty stout onshore flow looks to offer temperatures which are significantly cooler than normal (upper 60s to mid 70s!). NE winds could be strong enough to yield a need for potential small craft advisories for mariners. The bigger concern which we`re monitoring though is the potential for rounds of steadier rainfall which could lead to areas of flooding, particularly for Thu night into Fri. There are several factors on the synoptic scale which could favor heavy rainfall falling somewhere from the Mid Atlantic, portions of CT/RI and into western MA; near/south of the low pressure area is a moisture-rich environment with PWATs 1.6-1.8", with what may end up being a rather sharp west to east thermal gradient which could focus rounds of heavier rain which could be more reminiscent of a frontogenetic regime. QPF box-and-whisker diagrams from the 00z LREF, which utilize the coarser-res ensembles (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) and not the finer- scale guidance which we`re not yet in the forecast horizon to see their output as yet, shows QPF values around 1-1.5" in the 50th percentile at sites like Hartford and at Providence, but show values potentially reaching up to 3". Pretty good signal for steadier soaking rains, supported by the ECMWF EFI/Shift-of-Tails guidance which also offers potential for an anomalous rain event. The issue is the placement of the heaviest rainfall, which as mentioned above has still quite a range from central/eastern PA northwest to interior Southern New England. Coordination with surrounding offices and WPC agreed to hold on flood watches given the varied QPF maxima, but later shift(s) may need to consider one for parts of Southern New England. WPC`s Excessive Rain Outlook indicates Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in CT and western/central RI - and that`s probably the area that is most at-risk for a possible flood watch - with Marginal Risk of excessive rain spanning the rest of Southern New England. PoPs were increased into the Likely to low Categorical range for Thu night into part of Fri before decreasing later into Fri. This Weekend into Early Next Week: Canadian high pressure ridges into Southern New England in this period, offering an extended period period of dry weather. Seasonable temperatures this weekend with seasonable to slightly cooler than normal nighttime lows, so overall a really nice weekend looks to be in store. Looks generally dry into the early part of next week too, although with a warming trend to temperatures and dewpoints back on the rise too. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...Moderate confidence; some uncertainty if thunderstorms develop and their coverage. VFR and dry through 18z. After 18z, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop. Low confidence on areal coverage, but if anything does develop, it will likely remain towards western MA and north-central CT. We handled this uncertainty with a PROB30 after 18Z for BDL and BAF. Low probability of a few robust storms, with strong winds the main threat. Tonight...High confidence. VFR likely, except IFR/LIFR south coast, including Cape Cod and islands in low clouds and fog. Light winds mainly W overnight if they aren`t calm. Thursday...Moderate confidence, mainly due to timing issues. VFR for most. Areas of MVFR possible in heavier rainfall. Timing of lower conditions most likely in the mid to late afternoon, but could hold off until Thursday night. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF through 18z. Then some uncertainty on development and coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, though chances are diminishing. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High confidence on winds and seas, lower confidence on timing and areal coverage of potential thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog possible early this morning around Nantucket, and again tonight. Typical summer pattern with relatively light winds and seas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible after 4-5 PM today. A cold front will provide a wind shift to the NE toward Thu morning. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>021-026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>007. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006-007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239733 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 722 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 710 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR through the period with generally southeasterly winds across the area. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly inland of the terminals. Light and variable winds again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 93 77 93 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 95 80 95 80 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 80 92 80 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 81 93 80 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 97 82 96 82 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 93 78 93 79 / 30 20 30 10 Boca Raton 95 79 94 79 / 20 20 20 10 Naples 92 80 93 80 / 30 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239734 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The main story continues to be the prolonged heat across the area. We`ll see one more day of heat indices rising into the 105 to 110 degree range, before the temps begin to drop (though only a couple of degrees). Upper ridging will remained anchored to our south, while a ridge builds over the Western CONUS. A weak trough will move through the Great Lakes, dampening the ridge somewhat over the area. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to our south will keep a southerly flow across the region, keeping a moist airmass in place. Given the weakening ridge, thunderstorm coverage may be a bit more today than we saw yesterday, especially given the current isolated to scattered storms moving across the region. Despite the storms, temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s once again today. While we may mix a bit this afternoon, given the fact that dewpoints are currently in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, we should still see those heat indices reach heat advisory criteria. Regardless, low temperatures have remained in the upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat. The prolonged nature of these conditions will exacerbate any heat related illnesses. As mentioned above, we`ll start to see a downward trend in temperatures as we head into the weekend. Upper ridging will remain to our south, while the aforementioned tough digs into the TN Valley. This may provide a greater coverage of thunderstorms on Thursday, as a weak frontal boundary moves into northern Alabama. The axis of the trough will move off the East Coast and generally remain in place through the weekend with northerly flow persisting over the local area. The combination of drier air and a greater coverage of storms will keep temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend. Uncertainty is high with regard to how far south the front reaches, though guidance is fairly consistent on the boundary reaching our area and lingering during the first part of the new work week. Thus, scattered to numerous PoPs were maintained through the forecast package. /73 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Forecast confidence is low regarding thunderstorms this morning. Guidance and trends suggest this activity will diminish within the hour; however, kept prevailing TSRA for KMOB and KBFM through 14Z to account for redevelopment. After a break in thunderstorms, additional development is expected this afternoon. Due to the low confidence, have kept the PROB30 group, though amendments may become necessary if the coverage increases and/or the timing is quicker than currently forecast. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to moderate west to southwesterly flow will continue through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 77 93 77 94 75 92 74 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 70 40 Pensacola 92 80 92 80 93 79 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 60 40 70 60 Destin 92 81 92 82 92 80 92 78 / 60 20 50 20 60 40 70 70 Evergreen 96 75 95 75 95 72 93 72 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 70 40 Waynesboro 96 74 94 74 95 72 92 70 / 60 40 60 20 60 30 60 30 Camden 95 75 93 75 94 73 92 72 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 60 30 Crestview 93 75 93 75 94 74 93 73 / 60 20 60 20 60 30 70 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239732 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 714 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue through mid week, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A cold front brings more widespread precipitation late this week, with cooler and more pleasant conditions for the weekend, though it will remain unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - Lower coverage of thunderstorms expected today - Dangerous heat continues south of HWY 70 today Early this morning, a weak baroclinic zone resides across the Southeast U.S., roughly from Georgia east through South Carolina and then out into the southwestern Atlantic. Areas of convection are ongoing within this zone, all of which is mostly south and southwest of ENC, associated with at least a couple of MCVs and associated weak areas of low pressure. North of the baroclinic zone, a layer of dry low-mid level air is evident on satellite and recent objective RAP analysis. The steering flow is very weak thanks to ridging aloft, and guidance is mixed regarding the evolution of the above-mentioned MCVs and surface lows. The general consensus, though, is for these features to move off to the E or ENE as the ridge aloft begins to break down some, and as an upper level wave begins to encroach on the region late in the day. Based on all of the above, the most likely scenario is for any MCVs/SFC lows to trek east just south of ENC, keeping the strongest low-level forcing, and greatest coverage of thunderstorms, to our south. However, the southern half of ENC will be right on the gradient between the better lift and moisture to the south, and the drier, more stable airmass, to the north. Therefore, should any low or MCV pass closer to ENC than currently forecast, the risk of showers and thunderstorms would consequently end up higher, especially south of HWY 70. As mentioned above, the flow aloft is very weak, which will not be supportive of organized convection, keeping the risk of severe thunderstorms very low. The above-mentioned drier air should help to keep dewpoints lower across the northeastern half of ENC, consequently lowering the risk of heat impacts. Further south, dewpoints are forecast to remain high enough to support heat index values approaching 105 degrees. The nearby drier air and potential for dewpoints to be lower than forecast makes the heat risk a bit more marginal for headlines. It`s close enough, though, and today marks a continuation of a longer duration heatwave. In light of this, we`ll keep the Heat Advisory going for now, especially to highlight the cumulative effect of the heat, dating back to last week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Increasing low-mid level moisture is likely this evening and tonight as the flow aloft begins to increase some out of the south/southwest. Within this flow, it`s possible an MCV will emerge out of South Carolina, and shift NE across southeastern NC tonight. MCV development and evolution can be tricky at times, especially with weak flow aloft. However, there appears to be a decent signal for the potential of isolated to scattered nocturnal convection to develop across parts of the area associated with the above-mentioned MCV. The lack of stronger flow aloft should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low. However, with increased moisture and slow storm motions, there will be a risk of heavy rain and minor flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat late week into the start of next week - Flooding concerns Thursday and Friday Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of lower pressure across the eastern US late week. At the surface, a potent cold front will work its way across the Appalachians with pre-frontal troughing developing across the Carolinas. The cold front will take its sweet time crossing the FA on Friday, likely not moving offshore until Saturday morning. Once offshore, the front will stall through the weekend and support the development of a series of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast. This stalled boundary will then slowly lift north as a warm front on Monday and Tuesday. Good news: This FROPA will cause an air mass change, bringing an end to the oppressive heat and humidity that has plagued ENC for the past week. Bad news: the combination of the aforementioned synoptic and meso setup within a moisture loaded atmosphere is a recipe for multiple days of rain and flooding concerns. Impressive PWATs on the order of 2.25-2.75"+ will overspread the area on Thursday, gradually decreasing from north to south through Saturday as the front settles offshore, then surging again from south to north at the start of next week as the front lifts north. Moisture of this magnitude will support heavy rainfall from any cell that forms, and the slow progression of the front will increase concern for training cells. Instability will be greatest on Thursday (2000-3000 J/kg), allowing for some storms to become strong to severe. On Friday, the combination of lower CAPE, greater PWATs, and better forcing will create a greater flooding concern. WPC currently has all of ENC outlined in marginal (level 1/4) and slight (level 2/4) risks for flash flooding Thursday-Saturday. The coast and areas along and south of Highway 264 are expected to see the most precip through Tuesday (2-4") with lower amounts to the north (1-2"). Locally higher amounts are possible wherever stronger and/or training cells occur. Heat advisories may still be needed for portions of the area Thursday and Friday with heat indices forecast to reach around 105. Friday`s FROPA will be the swan song for this oppressive heat and humidity with highs on Saturday and Sunday staying in the low- to mid-80s and dewpoints ranging from the upper-60s to low-70s. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature difference. Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week (mid- to upper-80s). && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/... As of 700 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - Lingering BR/FG risk this morning - Lower TSRA risk today Recent surface obs show VIS fluctuating between LIFR and MVFR due to BR/FG. However, area webcams suggest the reduced VIS is more due to shallow fog. Because of this, VIS should quickly improve by 12-13z. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail as we move into the afternoon and evening hours. Today`s airmass is somewhat drier and not quite as unstable as the past few days. Because of this, the coverage of TSRA is expected to be lower, and mainly confined to southern sections of ENC. In light of this, I`ll continue with a PROB30 for KOAJ, but keep TSRA out of the rest of the TAFs. Moving into tonight, a slow-moving upper level wave is forecast to move through ENC, and this may lead to an overnight TSRA risk, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. Where TSRA occur, there will be an increased risk of sub-VFR conditions. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 2:50 AM Wednesday... There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through the long term, especially Thursday through the weekend when a cold front will bring heavy rainfall to the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 AM Wednesday... Great boating conditions will persist through the day. Variable 5-10 kt winds will become southerly by this evening. Seas will be 1-3 ft at 8 seconds. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3:10 AM Wednesday... The period will start with southwesterly winds at 5-10 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the waters late Friday, which will increase winds to 15-20 kt as they veer to the north. A northeasterly surge behind the front will increase winds to 20-30 kt on Saturday. Gales are possible for the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. On Sunday, northeasterly winds will gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. 1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by early Friday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from north to south Friday night into Sunday with peak heights expected Sunday afternoon. 5-10 ft seas are possible across the central waters with 4-7 ft seas across the northern and southern waters. Highest PoPs will be Thursday-Saturday with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044-079-080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239730 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Despite that, there are slight chances (less than 20 percent) of a shower or storm roughly east of I-45. - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Next week, temperatures will begin to drift back upwards, with a return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon storm coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 You know, if these past few weeks just haven`t been the summeriest stretch of Southeast Texas summer one could possibly get, I`m not sure how you could do it. The subtropical ridge is our main weather feature, with the nuances in its strength and position (and the passage of various upper troughs around the ridge`s fringe) dictating changes in the weather from day to day. For now, we remain in a stronger period for the ridge, and we`ve gotten some hot and even somewhat unseasonably dry days of late. But tomorrow, we`re going to *start* to see some transition. More significant moisture will attempt to bleed into area from the east, where it should be a little bit more humid while the west stays drier. Indeed, we may again see some isolated spots out in our northwest have their afternoon dewpoints mix to around 60 degrees. While not a huge change looks to make its way in, precipitable water looks to increase enough east of I-45 that we could see an isolated shower or storm pop up in the afternoon. Elsewhere, though, another day without rain is expected. By the late week and particularly the weekend, however, we`ll see sufficiently deep moisture and the arrival of enough modest troughing that we`ll see scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms each day. We`re not expecting any sort of widespread washouts, but as so often occurs around here - there`ll be enough moisture that the strongest storms of the day could produce localized flooding issues if they develop over a particularly vulnerable spot. On the plus side, increased clouds and rain chances will tamp down the temperatures a little bit, and the strong signal - especially near the coast - that we see in the Euro ensemble for above average to even near record heat will fade after Wednesday and likely be entirely gone by Friday. Not that it`s going to get cool at all...but it`ll at least fade into a more typical range of hot for the hottest time of the year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the day with FEW to SCT mid- level clouds. Light northwesterly winds are expected to persist through the late morning or early afternoon, then switching to southerly by the afternoon, then returning to light and variable tonight. Can`t out rule some patchy fog developing late tonight at SGR, LBX, or CXO. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast heading into the weekend. Locally higher winds and waves possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms later this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 99 80 97 80 / 10 10 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 95 83 93 83 / 20 10 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239731 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 720 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail east of the area for most of the week, along with a trough of low pressure inland. A cold front may stall near the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Convection has re-fired over portions of Colleton, Dorchester and Charleston counties. Expect some areas will get 1-2 inches or more of rainfall in the next few hours. May need to issue Flood Advisories. This convection appears to have formed within the inland trough of low pressure, especially over areas that didn`t receive convection yesterday, and therefore remain unstable. CAMS generally show scattered convection will continue, especially over our SC zones, through the rest of the early morning hours within the area of low level convergence associated with the surface trough. By after sunrise and into this afternoon: Convection should die down some after sunrise, but then redevelop by afternoon with strong afternoon heating and CAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg. Some storms could become strong, especially where boundary collisions occur. Given relatively slow storm motions, along with PWs over 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding of low-lying areas will again be possible this afternoon. Despite the increased rain threat, have continued the Heat Advisory for this afternoon, generally along the SC coast and across much of our GA zones with max heat indices of 108-112. Of course, convection could disrupt temperatures and humidity, which could impact the Heat Advisory. Tonight: Convection is expected to decrease in coverage. However, given ample moisture and presence of instability, it is likely that at least isolated convection will persist much of the night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday: Subtropical ridge begins to weaken by late week, as multiple shortwaves aloft carve out a longer wave trough across the eastern CONUS. This will support a continued risk for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. In regard to temperatures, look for highs to remain in the mid to upper 90s, with perhaps a few locations across southeastern Georgia flirting with 100 degrees. Similar to days past, will see heat indices peak between 105-108 degrees inland to 108-112 degrees along/east of I-95 prior to the onset of any convection. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed, but these will largely be driven by the timing and extent of afternoon convection - so stay tuned for future updates! Saturday: Broad upper level trough and its attendant sfc cold front continue to sag southeastward across the region Friday night, resulting in a fairly wet and unsettled pattern over the weekend. While showers and storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning, expect the better chances to arrive during the afternoon hours as instability and moisture increase. Temperatures during this time will also be notably cooler, as highs only rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s under cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dreary conditions continue Sunday and Monday as the aforementioned front stalls along the coast. With PWATs greater than 2 inches, could certainly see periods of locally heavy rainfall, which may result in flash flooding. As noted in the previous discussion, confidence still remains too low at this time to determine if the risk for flash flooding will be widespread enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Do think it`s worth noting, however, that WPC`s latest 7 day QPF forecast does highlight totals potentially reaching 3 to 5 inches across our area, with a bulk of those values expected to fall over a 3 day period (Saturday through Monday). Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days, especially for those folks who have outdoor plans! Otherwise, look for seasonally cool temperatures to prevail for the remainder of the extended period. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS and KJZI: Expect convection to redevelop this afternoon then push inland later in the afternoon/evening. Flight restrictions possible with any showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect a return to VFR conditions after 00z 31 July. KSAV: VFR conditions likely to prevail through this morning. By afternoon, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected. So, have kept tempo for convection through mid/late afternoon with flight restrictions possible. Expect return to VFR after 00z 31 July. Extended Aviation Forecast: The risk for flight restrictions due to showers/tstms will persist each afternoon/evening with chances ramping up over the weekend. && .MARINE... No highlights are expected through tonight. Atlantic high pressure will remain centered southeast of the waters, with an inland trough of low pressure. Generally southerly winds of 5-15 kts, strongest near the coast in the afternoon as the seabreeze develops. Seas 2 to 3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm offshore of the GA waters. Scattered mainly morning and late night showers and thunderstorms. Extended Marine: Southerly wind regime will prevail through Friday. Winds will begin to turn northeast over the weekend as a cold front stalls out near the area. Winds will generally remain 15 kt or less through the period, although winds may get as high as 15- 20 kt over the weekend across mainly the South Carolina waters as the gradient pinches a bit behind the cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 30: KCHS: 81/2016 KCXM: 83/2016 July 31: KCHS: 80/2022 KSAV: 80/2010 August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ047>052. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239729 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 701 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hazardous heat continues today and into late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM today across all of east central Florida for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. - Shower and storm chances will be near-normal through mid to late week (30-50%), especially over the interior, with rain chances then increasing through the weekend into early next week (up to 50-70%). && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today-Tonight...Hazardous heat continues today as a reinforcing mid level ridge builds westward across Florida. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the humidity will generate peak heat index values up to 108 to 112 degrees this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida from Noon to 7 PM. Moisture continues to increase today, with PW values increasing to 1.8-2.0 inches. This should allow the trend of gradually increasing rain chances to continue, with shower and storm coverage more closer to normal today (PoPs around 30-50 percent). This scattered convection will help bring some relief to the heat later in the afternoon and evening. Ridge axis south of the area will produce a light offshore flow, but the east coast sea breeze will still form and just move a little slower inland this afternoon. Should see some initial shower/storm development along and inland of the sea breeze, and then hi-res guidance is indicating late day boundary collisions and higher storm coverage will focus inland, west of I-95. Scattered convection will linger into the evening, with some of this activity potentially pushing back toward the coast, especially north of the Treasure Coast. Model soundings still show some lingering drier air aloft, with DCAPE values approaching around to just above 1000 J/kg. Therefore similar to yesterday, any storms that develop will have the potential to become strong, producing frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-55 mph. Weak steering winds will also lead to slow storm motion, with locally heavy rainfall around 1-3 inches possible from storms, leading to temporary urban/poor drainage flooding concerns. Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridge across Florida will move slowly westward into late week, with hazardous heat persisting. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 105-110 degrees. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed each day through late week for portions if not all of east central Florida. However, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop each afternoon and evening (rain chances ~30-50 percent), bringing some relief to the heat later in the day. Some stronger storms will still be possible each day, with the main threats continuing to be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding. Greatest storm coverage will still focus west of I-95, with convection then winding down into late evening. Mostly dry conditions then forecast during the overnight hours, with it remaining warm and muggy, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...A front will push southward into north Florida during the weekend and linger north of the area through early next week. This will lead to increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, with PoPs up to 50-70 percent each afternoon/evening. This will help bring some relief to the ongoing heat wave, but highs will still be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will still remain elevated, but look to largely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, around 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions generally forecast through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area over the next several days, with winds out of the west-southwest in the morning/overnight hours and becoming southeast each afternoon as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds speeds forecast to overall remain below 15 knots with seas 1-2 feet in the nearshore waters and up to 3 feet at times in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible over the waters, especially overnight and into the morning hours. Majority of afternoon convection looks to remain over land, but a weak offshore steering flow may allow for some storms to make it back toward the coast and just offshore during the afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 618 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Latest HRRR run has convection holding off until between 19z-20z and 06z GFS and NAM also point to late afternoon time frame to initiate isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly north of a KISM- KMLB line into the mid to late afternoon. Still expect scattered storm development in the KISM-DAB and KDAB-KMLB corridors from 20z-24z with isolated storms lingering from KISM-KMCO-KSFB into the evening. Lower convective coverage (generally isolated) is expected mainly inland from the coastal route from KVRB-KSUA this afternoon. For this evening, HRRR and hi-res models suggest convection may re-ignite to some extent as west coast breeze makes it across into the central peninsula into the evening hours possibly affecting the KSFB-KMCO corridor again this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 96 78 94 77 / 40 30 40 10 MCO 96 78 96 78 / 50 30 50 10 MLB 95 78 93 78 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 95 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 10 LEE 96 78 94 78 / 50 20 40 10 SFB 97 78 96 78 / 50 30 40 10 ORL 97 79 96 79 / 50 30 50 10 FPR 95 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239728 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 640 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unusually hot weather with high humidity will continue through Friday. A cold front should push through by Friday night bringing noticeably cooler weather for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Heights build to our west today at 500mb while another high will be found offshore. The area will thus find itself in a bit of a weakness in the height field that will allow for higher convective coverage than normal in addition to a possibly earlier convective initiation time. These factors (and the resulting added cloud cover) should temper afternoon heat/heat index values to where we can have our first day in several without any heat-related headlines. Convective coverage will decrease tonight but blended guidance does have it continue in a spotty fashion in the presence of such high dewpoints and a continued shortwave presence within aforementioned weakness in the height field, aided by a developing prefrontal trough. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Somewhat zonal flow aloft for Thursday and with embedded shortwave energy along with the aftn sea breeze and convective outflows, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. The high rain chances will complicate the max heat index forecast, with earlier and more widespread coverage of rain potentially capping heat indices below 100 degrees. For now, will keep most readings below Heat Advisory criteria but still in the 100-104 degree range, with actual high temps in the lwr 90s. With decent deep-layer moisture and lingering outflow boundaries, could see scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight, with low temps in the mid/upr 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain chances further increase into Friday, with the highest PWAT of the week over the area along with an approaching cold front. PoPs up to 70-80%, with the rain moderate to heavy at times. Similar to Thursday, timing of the rain will affect how high heat indices get...currently expecting at least mid 100s, near Heat Advisory criteria. Trickier forecast for Saturday, as some guidance keeps the day dry due to a clean cold fropa to the south, while other guidance keeps the front in close proximity and thus high rain chances. For now, PoPs are 70-80% near the coast and lower inland, with moderate to heavy rain again possible. PoPs slowly decrease thereafter into early next week as sfc high pressure builds in from the north, but cannot rule out rain any of the days with the weak front nearby and cyclonic flow aloft. Temps noticeably lower after Friday, with highs only in the 80s every day through Tuesday and heat indices only up to the 80s-90s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Generally a VFR forecast save outside of what may end up being healthy thunderstorm coverage with all areas favored and deserving of PROB30s. In heavy rain vsby could once again dip as low as IFR in any given storm but for now can`t get specific enough to advertise what would be short-lived restrictions rather than more widespread MVFR. Thunderstorms wane to shower overnight and become more spotty, the resulting cloud cover should prevent as much fog. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms. Vis and low cig restrictions are possible each night through the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...We continue to have a poorly defined pressure gradient across most of the western Atlantic keeping both wind waves diminutive and preventing the generation of swell energy. Light and variable winds will react to the seabreeze nearshore while a larger scale southerly flow develops tonight on the east side of a coastal prefrontal trough. Thursday through Sunday...10-15 kt SW winds will continue Thursday and Friday until a cold front drops through Friday night, veering winds to the NW then NNE Saturday, up to 15-20 kt late Saturday through Sunday. 2-3 ft seas Thursday and Friday will also slowly rise into the weekend following the cold fropa, up to 5 ft for Saturday night and Sunday. Current forecast keeps conditions below SCA thresholds, but there is a low chance of a marginal SCA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239727 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 644 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Surface troughing shifts just north of the area today as stacked high pressure "re-builds" into the region from the east. Though this version of high pressure will not be as strong as the "heat dome" that has been over us for the last several days, it will still induce a light southwesterly flow and enough subsidence for above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the region. The high will bring a slightly drier airmass aloft with it, which will help to mix down slightly lower dew points as compared to Tuesday. However, still looking at peak heat indices in the 105 to 110 range by this afternoon, and therefore have placed our whole region in a Heat Advisory. Regarding convective chances: slightly drier air and more subsidence does look to limit convective coverage later today, albeit only slightly as still looking at mostly a 30 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, the higher end of those chances being generally north of Waycross where marginally higher layer moisture and troughing influence remain. As per usual, some isolated stronger storms will be possible as well, capable of very heavy downpours and downbursts in the 40-50 mph range. Any remaining convection will slowly dissipate after sunset tonight, with the highest chances of lingering showers and storms being interior GA. Low temps in the mid to upper 70s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Subsidence will strengthen further on Thursday as ridging aloft continues to retrograde slowly westward, with this feature being positioned directly over our area by Thursday afternoon. Only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection is expected to develop along inland moving mesoscale boundaries, with another collision likely towards sunset along the I-95 corridor. The main hazard with any pulsing storms later on Thursday afternoon and evening will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes. Very hot conditions will otherwise continue, with highs again soaring to the mid to upper 90s and maximum heat index values peaking solidly within Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 F) during the afternoon hours. Lingering convection along the I-95 corridor / coastal locations early on Thursday evening will again dissipate before midnight, with leftover debris clouds thinning out quickly later in the evening. Low level southwesterly flow will keep lows in the mid to upper 70s for inland locations and around 80 at coastal locations. Deep-layered ridging will continue to retrograde slowly westward on Friday and will begin to flatten as it becomes positioned to the west of our area during the afternoon hours in response to a trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes region. Moisture will begin to pool ahead of a cold front will that will enter the southeastern states on Friday afternoon, but these higher moisture values may not enter inland portions of southeast GA until after sunset. Coverage of afternoon convection should remain widely scattered on Friday, but an uptick in coverage and intensity may be possible across inland southeast GA on Friday evening as upstream activity and convective outflows migrate into the area from the north and northwest. Friday will be another oppressively hot and humid day, with highs yet again soaring to the mid and upper 90s and peak heat indices likely reaching Heat Advisory criteria at most locations. Convection should remain confined to southeast GA on Friday night, with lows again only falling to the mid and upper 70s across our region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Deep-layered troughing will continue to dig over the eastern half of the nation this weekend and early next week. The aforementioned cold front will push into southeast GA on Saturday afternoon, and we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop by the late morning and early afternoon hours for locations to the north of I-10, with activity then overspreading the rest of our area during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong storms will be possible, especially along the I-95 corridor in northeast and north central FL, where low level west-southwesterly flow will focus mesoscale boundary collisions later in the afternoon. Saturday should be the final day of Heat Advisory conditions for our region, with highs likely climbing to the low and mid 90s, especially for locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, where peak heat index values will likely reach the 108-112 degree range yet again. Showers and thunderstorms may continue to develop into the overnight hours on Saturday night along a stalling frontal boundary, with lows in the 70s area-wide. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue area-wide on Sunday and Monday as the frontal boundary remains stalled near the FL/GA border. The threat for localized flooding may increase early next week, especially at urban and normally flood prone locations. Cloud cover and early development of convection should keep highs in the mid to upper 80s for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, ranging to the lower 90s across north central FL. Convection may linger well into the evening hours on Sunday night, but may take on a more diurnal nature by Monday night. Lows will remain in the 70s region wide each night. "Heat Wave" ridging over the Desert Southwest will migrate eastward towards the Southern Plains states during the early to middle portions of next week. This feature will keep a rather sharp trough in place from the Great Lakes region southward through the Tennessee Valley to the FL panhandle. This weather pattern will maintain a deep southwesterly flow pattern across our area, which will promote widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze, with strong storm potential continuing along the I-95 corridor as mesoscale boundaries collide during the mid to late afternoon hours. The frontal boundary stuck over our region will begin to dissolve as Atlantic ridging builds westward across the FL peninsula, which should promote a more typical diurnal pattern to our daily thunderstorm activity than compared to what we expect on Sunday and Monday. Highs will thus begin to climb back to the low and mid 90s due to less morning convection by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Lower rainfall chances today as ridging aloft and slightly drier airmass has re-built into the region from the Atlantic and likely will go with PROB30 groups at all TAF sites as SW flow will have the Gulf Coast dominate and push inland and meet the East Coast sea breeze at most TAF sites during the 19-23Z time frame or so with some gusty winds possible. For now VFR conds this morning with PROB30 MVFR conds in TSRA activity this afternoon, returning to VFR conds after sunset tonight and will only include some patchy fog at VQQ due to the low fog chances in this pattern. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A trough of low pressure near GA waters will lift northward through Wednesday as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. This regime will then change little through at least Friday, which will result in a light offshore wind at night and a developing sea breeze during the daytime each day. A frontal boundary will approach area waters by Friday Night, and stall just north of or over GA waters for the weekend, resulting in an active pattern and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be low to moderate through the next several days with a sea breeze developing daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Southwesterly surface and transport winds will gradually strengthen after sunrise today, with breezy transport speeds expected this afternoon across northeast and north central FL. These winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create marginally high daytime dispersion values across the Suwannee Valley this afternoon, with good values forecast elsewhere inland. Onshore surface winds developing during the early to mid afternoon hours will likely keep daytime dispersion values fair at coastal locations. Breezy southwesterly transport winds will prevail both days, with these winds combining with continued elevated mixing heights to create high daytime dispersion values for inland locations along and north of I-10 on Thursday afternoon, with fair to good values at coastal locations. High daytime dispersion values are then forecast at all inland locations on Friday, with good values expected at coastal locations. Coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend through early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 102/2010 102/1999 102/1999 Gainesville, FL 100/1896 100/1892 100/1896 Craig Airport, FL 101/2010 101/1999 101/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 101/1961 102/1999 100/1999 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THU 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 81/1872 78/1941 82/1873 Gainesville, FL 78/2010 77/2011 77/1893 Craig Airport, FL 80/2010 79/2011 79/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/1999 77/1999 77/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 75 96 76 / 40 40 20 20 SSI 92 80 95 80 / 30 20 10 10 JAX 98 78 98 77 / 40 20 30 10 SGJ 96 78 96 77 / 40 30 30 10 GNV 96 76 96 75 / 50 10 30 0 OCF 95 75 94 75 / 40 20 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433- 522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239726 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 654 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds today. Early this morning, seeing mostly clear skies over most of the area (outside of a few higher clouds). Warm/muggy this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s (upper 70s across the SE). Patchy fog is expected as we approach sunrise, with the highest coverage mainly across our Piedmont counties. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest later today, but remains well north of the area. Dewpoints will be a couple degrees higher today compared to yesterday as southerly flow ahead of the boundary allows for an uptick in moisture. Afternoon heat indices will top out between 100 and 104F, with a few spots potentially exceeding 105 for an hour or two. Due to the limited coverage and short duration of any 105+ heat indices, opted for no heat headlines today. Afternoon high temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s. Still can`t rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorms across our western Piedmont counties late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of the local area. Remaining warm and muggy tonight with lows in the mid 70s and upper 70s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and muggy ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday with heat indices climbing to near 105. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday as the front moves crosses the area. On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down across the east with the center of the high retrograding towards the SW CONUS. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned cold front approaches and moves through the area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included roughly the northern half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO, with a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the area as the widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place already over the region. In addition to the flooding threat, strong to severe storms will also be possible due to the high instability and enhanced flow aloft/at the surface over the local area. SPC has placed far northern portions of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be the main threats Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s to potentially mid 90s in spots with dew points rising back into the mid 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. The front likely slows as it drops south on Friday, allowing for showers and storms chances to continue (greatest coverage S-SE). WPC has most of the area in a Day 3 Marginal ERO, with a Slight ERO just south of the area. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday ranging from around 80 across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday (especially across the far SE/along the Albemarle Sound). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist at all terminals for the 12z/30 TAF period. Patchy fog, mostly towards the piedmont, will lift this morning. Winds are calm to light, expected to stay light at 5-10 kt this afternoon, mostly out of the SW. SCT cumulus clouds are expected to redevelop inland today as mixing gets underway. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected until Thursday when a cold front approaches the area from the N. Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with degraded flight conditions likely in and around convection. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... - Benign marine conditions continue through late week. - Confidence continues to increase as a stronger cold front approaches the area late this week with widespread Small Craft Advisories likely from Friday through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate over the region, allowing for benign marine conditions. Winds are currently SW and light around 5 kt, expected to become SE this afternoon, briefly increasing in the afternoon and evening to around 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt near the mouth of the Ches. Bay. Although winds increase slightly, sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. As a stronger cold front approaches the region, the pressure gradient will increase slightly Thursday afternoon and evening allowing winds to become 10-15 kt. Local wind probs show only a 20% chance of sustained 18 kt winds in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Thursday afternoon/evening, so not anticipating any headlines to begin tomorrow at this time. Waves are currently around 1 ft both in the Ches. Bay and the coastal waters and will remaining benign at 1-2 ft through Thursday. A stronger cold front will drop from the north on Friday before stalling over the area as low pressure develops. This front will have relatively strong CAA (for this time of year) causing winds and waves to significantly increase. The front is expected to move through most of the area by Friday afternoon with winds shifting out of the NNE, increasing throughout the day into late Saturday. Winds will peak Saturday evening at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the Ches. Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the coastal waters. SCAs are expected to be needed for this period. Will note that winds may gust up to 34 kt, but models are not in agreement. Local wind probs only have a 10-20% chance of gusts of 34 kt on Saturday evening, while the ECMWF ensemble guidance has a 40-60% chance. Current thinking is a few gusts of 34 kt for a few hours is possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and assessed. With the increased winds, waves and seas will subsequently increase. Wave heights will increase beginning Friday afternoon and remain elevated through early next week. Seas will peak at 6-8 ft with waves peaking at 3-4 ft in the upper Ches. Bay and 5-6 ft in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Saturday afternoon/evening. Waves and seas will slowly decline Sunday and Monday. A low risk of rip current will continue through Thursday ahead of the cold front. Anticipated low risk on Friday as well, as wind and waves begin to increase in the afternoon/evening. Behind the front with stronger NE winds, the threat for rip current will also increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239725 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 629 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Dangerous heat continues to be the driving headline for the next several days. A heat advisory is in effect for heat indices of 105- 111F this afternoon from 11AM to 7PM ET or 10AM to 6PM CT. The tri-state region sits between two mid level height centers; one over the southern Plains and the other over the Bahamas. PWATs across the area is over 2 inches. Overnight convection is ongoing through southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. This area is not handled well in the CAMs and raising pops up over model guidance through the overnight hours. Did add some patchy fog closer to daybreak especially in areas that received rainfall from yesterday. Ridge over the Bahamas builds westward today adding drier air and increasing subsidence over the northeast Gulf into the Florida Big Bend. PWATS drop this afternoon down towards 1.7 inches while 2+ inches remain through the Florida panhandle northeast towards south central Georgia. Better rain chances will follow this trend with 30- 40% in the Big Bend to 60% from the panhandle into southeast Alabama. Gusty to strong winds could occur with any stronger storms as DCAPE is in excess of 1000 J/kg. Highs today are a little lower compared to previous days with readings in the mid/upper 90s. Higher dewpoints will reside over the western half of the CWA today but this area will have the better chances of experiencing convection. Drier air over the Big Bend will allow some mixing to occur but will have less convection and more sun. Regardless, heat indices will run in the 105-111F range today and no changes were made to the advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A forecast 595dm high will be centered over the FL Peninsula for the start of the short term. This will limit our rain chances for Thursday afternoon and keep our temperatures very warm in the mid to upper 90s. With the lack of respite from widespread rain and continued warm dew points, heat advisories may be possible for Thursday with widespread heat indices ranging from 106-110 degrees. PoPs for Thursday range from 30-50 percent with higher values in our central time zone counties. As we move into Friday, an upper level trough from the north will start to break down the ridge. This will gradually increase our rain chances as well as gradually decrease our temperatures heading towards the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 For the Long term, the ridge breaks down as the upper level trough will move in from the north. Our PoPs will be increasing with widespread PoPs of 60-80 percent each afternoon. Gratefully, temperatures will be less hot with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s for the long term. The good news is that heat indices will be below advisory criteria, finally giving us a break. However, overnight lows will remain in the mid 70s. Through the weekend, the showers and thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall as evident of PWATs around 2.5". From Friday through Sunday, our region is highlighted in a Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall. Throughout the entire period, we could see a widespread 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 MVFR conds have yet to transpire at the terminals but a few locations are reporting IFR conditions. The 12Z TAFs will remove the mention unless conditions develop. Best chances for TS today will be at DHN and ABY later this afternoon. Continued the PROB30 at ECP and TLH 19-22Z for any seabreeze convection that may develop. Confidence is low at the moment. Drier air working across the Big Bend and southern Georgia should keep low rain chances at VLD and do not have a mention here. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become more numerous as we head into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that will be the primary weather concerns for folks outside through the week. While rain chances will stick around today into Thursday, rain chances will decrease some as drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but dispersions will begin to creep up slowly through the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 50 10 40 10 Panama City 91 81 91 81 / 50 10 40 20 Dothan 94 75 93 76 / 60 20 40 10 Albany 96 75 95 77 / 50 20 30 20 Valdosta 96 75 97 76 / 40 10 20 10 Cross City 94 76 94 76 / 20 0 30 0 Apalachicola 90 81 91 80 / 30 0 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk from noon EDT today through this evening for FLZ115. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239724 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 432 AM AST Wed Jul 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm conditions will persist today; therefore, a heat advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 5 PM for all coastal areas, including the vicinity of Caguas. * WET PATTERN EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND: A tropical wave will increase moisture and enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the islands. * Today, a low concentration of Saharan dust particles will remain in place. However, a typical summer pattern is expected, with afternoon showers likely across the southwestern quadrant. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday... Despite radar Doppler and satellite imagery detecting pockets of isolated to scattered showers and low-level clouds across the region, weather conditions over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands were significantly quiet under mostly clear skies and light to calm and variable winds. Low temperatures ranged from the lower 60s across the highest elevations of the Cordillera Central to warm lower 80s persisting across coastal areas of northeastern, eastern, and southern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands. A drier air mass, featuring precipitable water values as low as 1.2 inches and low Saharan Dust concentrations, will continue to move into the region today, steered by moderate trade winds. At the same time, mid-level ridging will persist, promoting dry air entrainment, increased subsidence, and a strengthening trade wind inversion through late tonight. However, a low-to mid-level trough will then move into the eastern Caribbean, bringing more favorable conditions and a patchy moisture environment. Winds will be out of the east- northeast tonight, shifting to a more east-southeasterly direction on Thursday and continuing into Thursday night before the trough dissipates. More persistent tropical moisture, associated with the leading edge of an approaching tropical wave and steered by moderate to fresh east-northeasterly winds, is anticipated to reach the region Friday night. As hostile conditions persist today, convection will be limited primarily to brief, trade winddriven showers along windward areas in the morning. However, diurnal heating and local effects will prompt shallow, scattered to locally numerous afternoon showers over southwestern Puerto Rico this afternoon. As conditions become less hostile, expect increased trade wind shower activity linked to patches of moisture tonight into Thursday morning, followed by showers and possible isolated thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon and evening. A patchy weather scenario is expected again Thursday night, but with abundant tropical moisture moving in on Friday into Friday night, along with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures, a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Excessive heat remains the primary hazard today, with a Heat Advisory in effect for lower elevations and urban centers of Puerto Rico, which are most susceptible to heat levels that can impact heat- sensitive individuals, particularly those without access to effective cooling or adequate hydration. In contrast, flooding is a secondary hazard today, indicated by ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas, as well as a low likelihood of urban and small streams flooding, primarily in southwestern Puerto Rico. Wind hazards are expected to be minimal and localized to exposed coastal areas. While heat will likely remain the primary concern over the next few days, excessive rainfall and wind-related hazards are expected to continue, with lightning risks likely to return by Thursday. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... A vigorous tropical wave will bring an unstable weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Saturday through Sunday. Abundant moisture associated with this wave will support a wet pattern, with increased cloudiness and a higher frequency of showers and thunderstorms. While there remain discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF models regarding the exact timing of the waves axis passage, both agree on the potential for widespread rainfall. The most significant impacts are expected on Sunday, supported by favorable instability from an upper-level low just northwest of the region, with 500 mb temperatures ranging from -6 to -7C, as shown by the Glvez-Davison Index values. The flood threat will be elevated, particularly across the eastern slopes, western interior, and northwestern and northeastern Puerto Rico due to persistent shower activity and saturated soils. The U.S. Virgin Islands will mostly observe showers early on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, for the islands, the flood risk will remain limited. Trailing moisture will linger into Monday, keeping conditions humid and favorable for showers across parts of the islands. These conditions will lead to mostly warm and muggy conditions, leading heat indices to surpass 100 degrees in most of the coastal and urban areas. However, a drier and more stable air mass with Saharan dust is forecast to arrive by Tuesday, leading to improving conditions. This will result in hazy skies and reduced shower activity through midweek. By Wednesday, as the Saharan dust moves out of the area, a more seasonal weather pattern is expected to resume, characterized by typical afternoon convection mainly across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico under light to moderate easterly trade winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) VFR conditions will generally prevail across all terminals through the next 24 hours. However, trade wind SHRA may intermittently affect TJSJ and USVI terminals after 30/13Z. At TJBQ and TJPS, afternoon SHRA/TSRA may result in brief MVFR conditions between 30/16Z and 30/23Z. Winds will remain light to calm and variable, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts after 30/13Z, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after 30/23Z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, in combination with an induced surface trough, will continue to promote gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds. Today, portions of the Caribbean waters may experience moderate to locally fresh winds, leading to slightly choppy marine conditions. By Friday, an approaching tropical wave and its leading edge will increase winds across the local waters, enhancing the potential for thunderstorms and resulting in localized hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... There is a low risk of rip currents across all coastal areas of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A slight to moderate increase in risk is forecast for St. Croix tomorrow. Although coastal conditions remain generally favorable, residents and visitors are urged to exercise caution, especially along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, where rip currents are more likely. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible again today across some coastal areas. Residents are advised to seek shelter if a thunderstorm approaches the coastline or moves over nearby waters. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007-008-010-011. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239723 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 408 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A weak flank of an Atlantic surface ridge stretches westward across South Florida and the Keys this evening. This is resulting in light southeasterly breezes across the Keys. Meanwhile, modestly ridging is establishing itself in the lower through upper levels. Last evenings sounding indicated very high precipitable water. However, forecast soundings suggest precipitable water has already fallen considerably with much of the drying occurring through the lower and mid levels. This along with weak lower level moisture has resulted in a nearly precipitation free forecast area. Anticyclonic flow will remain the main player in Keys weather for the remainder of the week and into next week. The surface ridge is expected to strengthen slightly and shift northward towards Central Florida over the next few days. This will produce a slight uptick in east to southeasterly flow in the Keys. The combination of modest precipitable water, mid 70s dew points, persistent weak low level inhibition, and an unfavorable east to southeasterly steering flow should combine for at best slight chance PoPs. Expect seasonably hot weather with highs near 90 and lows in the lower 80s. Guidance suggests the surface through lower level ridge will break down across Florida late in the weekend and early next week due to a trough/low swinging through the southeastern United States. In addition, increased lower level moisture, associated with a weak wave, is expected to spread into our area. Will nudge PoPs upwards to low chance PoPs beginning early next week. There is considerable uncertainty regarding wind speed, but the most likely scenario is that winds slacken initially late in the weekend, then freshen modestly early next. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A limp western flank of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys. This will result in light broadly southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. The ridge will strengthen modestly as it lifts towards Central Florida. As a result, marine winds will nudge upwards slightly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain around 10%. Winds will be generally from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1953, the daily record low temperature of 67F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239722 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 338 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Elevated heat and humidity will continue through today. Cloudy weather with much cooler conditions are expected Thursday into Friday, with the potential for steady soaking rainfall somewhere across southern New England or the northern Mid Atlantic region. Flooding could be possible at some locations, but the location of heaviest rainfall remains unclear. An extended stretch of dry weather then develops for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are seasonable with low humidity levels this weekend, but with a warming trend for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Near record heat this afternoon with highs in the 90s and heat indices 95-100+. Not as hot along the coast given seabreezes. * Low risk of late afternoon isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms Yet another day of heat today, but not quite as humid as yesterday. This will have a couple of implications. First, the "feels like" temperatures will not be as high. Second, it will make it slightly more difficult for convection to initiate. Model forecast soundings were not overly supportive of severe weather. However, there should be enough instability generated ahead of a cold front moving onto our region later today for a few thunderstorms to develop. A few of those storms could produce strong gusty winds. Thinking the wet-bulb freezing level is too high where large hail will be a concern, but smaller hail is possible within the stronger storms. Looking like our window of opportunity for these thunderstorms is between 3-8 PM. Expecting high temperatures to come in just below record levels for today, but it will be close. The record highs for today are as follows: BOS - 98F set in 1933 BDL - 98F set in 1988 PVD - 97F set in 1949 ORH - 95F set in 1949 && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Rather quiet tonight, but becoming unsettled Thursday The aforementioned cold front moves off the coast tonight, but doesn`t move very far from the south coast into Thursday. This will set the stage for a more soaking rainfall to arrive later Thursday. While there is a risk for showers and thunderstorms are just about any time Thursday, it will most likely be late afternoon into the evening hours. Not nearly as hot Thursday, but it should still be humid, especially towards the south coast of New England. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Low pressure near or south of Southern New England could bring rounds of steady rainfall into part of Fri. Could result in flooding, but the exact locations are still uncertain. Flood Watches could be needed in later updates. * Much below normal temperatures for late in the week - highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with an onshore breeze. * Nice weekend in store with seasonable temps (cooler lows) and dry weather. * Still dry into early next week but with a warming trend. Details: Thursday Night into Friday: An anomalous weather pattern looks to be taking shape for late this week, driven by a seasonably strong high pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England and a weak area of low pressure somewhere near the mid-Atlantic states or the central Appalachians. Cloud cover and pretty stout onshore flow looks to offer temperatures which are significantly cooler than normal (upper 60s to mid 70s!). NE winds could be strong enough to yield a need for potential small craft advisories for mariners. The bigger concern which we`re monitoring though is the potential for rounds of steadier rainfall which could lead to areas of flooding, particularly for Thu night into Fri. There are several factors on the synoptic scale which could favor heavy rainfall falling somewhere from the Mid Atlantic, portions of CT/RI and into western MA; near/south of the low pressure area is a moisture-rich environment with PWATs 1.6-1.8", with what may end up being a rather sharp west to east thermal gradient which could focus rounds of heavier rain which could be more reminiscent of a frontogenetic regime. QPF box-and-whisker diagrams from the 00z LREF, which utilize the coarser-res ensembles (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) and not the finer- scale guidance which we`re not yet in the forecast horizon to see their output as yet, shows QPF values around 1-1.5" in the 50th percentile at sites like Hartford and at Providence, but show values potentially reaching up to 3". Pretty good signal for steadier soaking rains, supported by the ECMWF EFI/Shift-of-Tails guidance which also offers potential for an anomalous rain event. The issue is the placement of the heaviest rainfall, which as mentioned above has still quite a range from central/eastern PA northwest to interior Southern New England. Coordination with surrounding offices and WPC agreed to hold on flood watches given the varied QPF maxima, but later shift(s) may need to consider one for parts of Southern New England. WPC`s Excessive Rain Outlook indicates Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in CT and western/central RI - and that`s probably the area that is most at-risk for a possible flood watch - with Marginal Risk of excessive rain spanning the rest of Southern New England. PoPs were increased into the Likely to low Categorical range for Thu night into part of Fri before decreasing later into Fri. This Weekend into Early Next Week: Canadian high pressure ridges into Southern New England in this period, offering an extended period period of dry weather. Seasonable temperatures this weekend with seasonable to slightly cooler than normal nighttime lows, so overall a really nice weekend looks to be in store. Looks generally dry into the early part of next week too, although with a warming trend to temperatures and dewpoints back on the rise too. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: Moderate confidence, some uncertainty if thunderstorms develop and coverage. VFR an dry through 18z. After 18z, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop. Low confidence on areal coverage. We handled this uncertainty with a PROB30 after 18Z for some terminals. Low probability of a few robust storms, with strong winds the main threat. Tonight: low confidence on showers and thunderstorms much past sunset. VFR likely, except IFR/LIFR south coast, including Cape Cod and islands in low clouds and fog. Isolated to widely scattered showers possible along with isolated -TSRA. Thursday: Moderate confidence, mainly due to timing issues. VFR for most. Areas of MVFR possible in heavier rainfall. Timing of lower conditions most likely in the mid to late afternoon, but could hold off until Thursday night. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF through 18z today. Then isolated/widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible after 19z/20z. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF through 18z. Then some uncertainty on development and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High confidence on winds and seas, lower confidence on timing and areal coverage of potential thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog possible early this morning around Nantucket, and again tonight. Typical summer pattern with relatively light winds and seas. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible after 4-5 PM today. A cold front will provide a wind shift to the NE toward Thu morning. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>021-026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>007. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006-007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239721 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue through mid week, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A cold front brings more widespread precipitation late this week, with cooler and more pleasant conditions for the weekend, though it will remain unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - Lower coverage of thunderstorms expected today - Dangerous heat continues south of HWY 70 today Early this morning, a weak baroclinic zone resides across the Southeast U.S., roughly from Georgia east through South Carolina and then out into the southwestern Atlantic. Areas of convection are ongoing within this zone, all of which is currently south and southwest of ENC, associated with at least a couple of MCVs and associated weak areas of low pressure. North of the baroclinic zone, a layer of dry low-mid level air is evident on satellite and recent objective RAP analysis. The steering flow is very weak thanks to ridging aloft, and guidance is mixed regarding the evolution of the above-mentioned MCVs and surface lows. The general consensus, though, is for these features to move off to the E or ENE as the ridge aloft begins to break down some, and as an upper level wave begins to encroach on the region late in the day. Based on all of the above, the most likely scenario is for any MCVs/SFC lows to trek east just south of ENC, keeping the strongest low-level forcing, and greatest coverage of thunderstorms, to our south. However, the southern half of ENC will be right on the gradient between the better lift and moisture to the south, and the drier, more stable airmass, to the north. Therefore, should any low or MCV pass closer to ENC than currently forecast, the risk of showers and thunderstorms would consequently end up higher, especially south of HWY 70. As mentioned above, the flow aloft is very weak, which will not be supportive of organized convection, keeping the risk of severe thunderstorms very low. The above-mentioned drier air should help to keep dewpoints lower across the northeastern half of ENC, consequently lowering the risk of heat impacts. Further south, dewpoints are forecast to remain high enough to support heat index values approaching 105 degrees. The nearby drier air and potential for dewpoints to be lower than forecast makes the heat risk a bit more marginal for headlines. It`s close enough, though, and today marks a continuation of a longer duration heatwave. In light of this, we`ll keep the Heat Advisory going for now, especially to highlight the cumulative effect of the heat, dating back to last week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Increasing low-mid level moisture is likely this evening and tonight as the flow aloft begins to increase some out of the south/southwest. Within this flow, it`s possible an MCV will emerge out of South Carolina, and shift NE across southeastern NC tonight. MCV development and evolution can be tricky at times, especially with weak flow aloft. However, there appears to be a decent signal for the potential of isolated to scattered nocturnal convection to develop across parts of the area associated with the above-mentioned MCV. The lack of stronger flow aloft should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low. However, with increased moisture and slow storm motions, there will be a risk of heavy rain and minor flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat late week into the start of next week - Flooding concerns Thursday and Friday Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of lower pressure across the eastern US late week. At the surface, a potent cold front will work its way across the Appalachians with pre-frontal troughing developing across the Carolinas. The cold front will take its sweet time crossing the FA on Friday, likely not moving offshore until Saturday morning. Once offshore, the front will stall through the weekend and support the development of a series of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast. This stalled boundary will then slowly lift north as a warm front on Monday and Tuesday. Good news: This FROPA will cause an air mass change, bringing an end to the oppressive heat and humidity that has plagued ENC for the past week. Bad news: the combination of the aforementioned synoptic and meso setup within a moisture loaded atmosphere is a recipe for multiple days of rain and flooding concerns. Impressive PWATs on the order of 2.25-2.75"+ will overspread the area on Thursday, gradually decreasing from north to south through Saturday as the front settles offshore, then surging again from south to north at the start of next week as the front lifts north. Moisture of this magnitude will support heavy rainfall from any cell that forms, and the slow progression of the front will increase concern for training cells. Instability will be greatest on Thursday (2000-3000 J/kg), allowing for some storms to become strong to severe. On Friday, the combination of lower CAPE, greater PWATs, and better forcing will create a greater flooding concern. WPC currently has all of ENC outlined in marginal (level 1/4) and slight (level 2/4) risks for flash flooding Thursday-Saturday. The coast and areas along and south of Highway 264 are expected to see the most precip through Tuesday (2-4") with lower amounts to the north (1-2"). Locally higher amounts are possible wherever stronger and/or training cells occur. Heat advisories may still be needed for portions of the area Thursday and Friday with heat indices forecast to reach around 105. Friday`s FROPA will be the swan song for this oppressive heat and humidity with highs on Saturday and Sunday staying in the low- to mid-80s and dewpoints ranging from the upper-60s to low-70s. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature difference. Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week (mid- to upper-80s). && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Evening/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Key Messages - BR/FG potential overnight - Lower TSRA risk on Wednesday In the very near term (ie. overnight), the main aviation impact looks to be the potential for BR/FG. Over the past 1-2 hours, the VIS has fallen to 1-3SM at times, especially for areas that saw the greatest rainfall over the past 12 hours. This axis stretches from KISO to KEWN and points south. It`s in this area where the potential for BR/FG appears to be the greatest. One complicating factor at the moment is an area of high cloudiness moving overhead. This may delay the onset of the lowest VIS, but once it clears out, the risk of IFR, or lower, conditions should increase. The 06z TAFs reflect a slight adjustment to the timing of the lowest conditions in light of all of the above. Given the weak flow regime, any low clouds or FG that develop may have a tendency to be slower to clear. The current expectation is that VFR conditions will return for all sites by 14- 15z Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, slightly drier air attempting to edge in from the north should keep the risk of TSRA lower today compared to previous days. For now, the greatest chance of TSRA impacts looks to be focused around KOAJ, and I added a PROB30 there to account for this. Elsewhere, I left TSRA out of the TAFs given the expected impacts of the drier and less unstable airmass. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 2:50 AM Wednesday... There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through the long term, especially Thursday through the weekend when a cold front will bring heavy rainfall to the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 3 AM Wednesday... Great boating conditions will persist through the day. Variable 5-10 kt winds will become southerly by this evening. Seas will be 1-3 ft at 8 seconds. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 3:10 AM Wednesday... The period will start with southwesterly winds at 5-10 kt, increasing to 10-15 kt Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the waters late Friday, which will increase winds to 15-20 kt as they veer to the north. A northeasterly surge behind the front will increase winds to 20-30 kt on Saturday. Gales are possible for the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. On Sunday, northeasterly winds will gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. 1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by early Friday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from north to south Friday night into Sunday with peak heights expected Sunday afternoon. 5-10 ft seas are possible across the central waters with 4-7 ft seas across the northern and southern waters. Highest PoPs will be Thursday-Saturday with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044-079-080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239720 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 258 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds today. Early this morning, seeing mostly clear skies over most of the area (outside of a few higher clouds). Warm/muggy this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s (upper 70s across the SE). Patchy fog is expected as we approach sunrise, with the highest coverage mainly across our Piedmont counties. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest later today, but remains well north of the area. Dewpoints will be a couple degrees higher today compared to yesterday as southerly flow ahead of the boundary allows for an uptick in moisture. Afternoon heat indices will top out between 100 and 104F, with a few spots potentially exceeding 105 for an hour or two. Due to the limited coverage and short duration of any 105+ heat indices, opted for no heat headlines today. Afternoon high temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s. Still can`t rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorms across our western Piedmont counties late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of the local area. Remaining warm and muggy tonight with lows in the mid 70s and upper 70s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Hot and muggy ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday with heat indices climbing to near 105. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday as the front moves crosses the area. On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down across the east with the center of the high retrograding towards the SW CONUS. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned cold front approaches and moves through the area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included roughly the northern half of the area in a Day 2 Slight ERO, with a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the area as the widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place already over the region. In addition to the flooding threat, strong to severe storms will also be possible due to the high instability and enhanced flow aloft/at the surface over the local area. SPC has placed far northern portions of the area in a Marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to severe wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be the main threats Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s to potentially mid 90s in spots with dew points rising back into the mid 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. The front likely slows as it drops south on Friday, allowing for showers and storms chances to continue (greatest coverage S-SE). WPC has most of the area in a Day 3 Marginal ERO, with a Slight ERO just south of the area. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday ranging from around 80 across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday (especially across the far SE/along the Albemarle Sound). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough lingering. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist at all terminals for the 06z/30 TAF period. Only a few to scattered high clouds over the area, with some patchy fog developing in the piedmont. Confidence is low for any patchy fog developing near the coastal terminals, but not expecting any restrictions for the terminals at this time. Generally light winds will persist into Wednesday. SCT cumulus clouds are expected to redevelop tomorrow as mixing gets underway. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected until Thursday when a cold front approaches the area from the N. Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with degraded flight conditions likely in and around convection. && .MARINE... As of 255 AM EDT Wednesday... - Benign marine conditions continue through late week. - Confidence continues to increase as a stronger cold front approaches the area late this week with widespread Small Craft Advisories likely from Friday through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate over the region, allowing for benign marine conditions. Winds are currently SW and light around 5 kt, expected to become SE this afternoon, briefly increasing in the afternoon and evening to around 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt near the mouth of the Ches. Bay. Although winds increase slightly, sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. As a stronger cold front approaches the region, the pressure gradient will increase slightly Thursday afternoon and evening allowing winds to become 10-15 kt. Local wind probs show only a 20% chance of sustained 18 kt winds in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Thursday afternoon/evening, so not anticipating any headlines to begin tomorrow at this time. Waves are currently around 1 ft both in the Ches. Bay and the coastal waters and will remaining benign at 1-2 ft through Thursday. A stronger cold front will drop from the north on Friday before stalling over the area as low pressure develops. This front will have relatively strong CAA (for this time of year) causing winds and waves to significantly increase. The front is expected to move through most of the area by Friday afternoon with winds shifting out of the NNE, increasing throughout the day into late Saturday. Winds will peak Saturday evening at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the Ches. Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the coastal waters. SCAs are expected to be needed for this period. Will note that winds may gust up to 34 kt, but models are not in agreement. Local wind probs only have a 10-20% chance of gusts of 34 kt on Saturday evening, while the ECMWF ensemble guidance has a 40-60% chance. Current thinking is a few gusts of 34 kt for a few hours is possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and assessed. With the increased winds, waves and seas will subsequently increase. Wave heights will increase beginning Friday afternoon and remain elevated through early next week. Seas will peak at 6-8 ft with waves peaking at 3-4 ft in the upper Ches. Bay and 5-6 ft in the mouth of the Ches. Bay on Saturday afternoon/evening. Waves and seas will slowly decline Sunday and Monday. A low risk of rip current will continue through Thursday ahead of the cold front. Anticipated low risk on Friday as well, as wind and waves begin to increase in the afternoon/evening. Behind the front with stronger NE winds, the threat for rip current will also increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239719 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Hazardous heat continues today and into late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM today across all of east central Florida for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. - Shower and storm chances will be near-normal through mid to late week (30-50%), especially over the interior, with rain chances then increasing through the weekend into early next week (up to 50-70%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today-Tonight...Hazardous heat continues today as a reinforcing mid level ridge builds westward across Florida. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with the humidity will generate peak heat index values up to 108 to 112 degrees this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central Florida from Noon to 7 PM. Moisture continues to increase today, with PW values increasing to 1.8-2.0 inches. This should allow the trend of gradually increasing rain chances to continue, with shower and storm coverage more closer to normal today (PoPs around 30-50 percent). This scattered convection will help bring some relief to the heat later in the afternoon and evening. Ridge axis south of the area will produce a light offshore flow, but the east coast sea breeze will still form and just move a little slower inland this afternoon. Should see some initial shower/storm development along and inland of the sea breeze, and then hi-res guidance is indicating late day boundary collisions and higher storm coverage will focus inland, west of I-95. Scattered convection will linger into the evening, with some of this activity potentially pushing back toward the coast, especially north of the Treasure Coast. Model soundings still show some lingering drier air aloft, with DCAPE values approaching around to just above 1000 J/kg. Therefore similar to yesterday, any storms that develop will have the potential to become strong, producing frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40-55 mph. Weak steering winds will also lead to slow storm motion, with locally heavy rainfall around 1-3 inches possible from storms, leading to temporary urban/poor drainage flooding concerns. Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridge across Florida will move slowly westward into late week, with hazardous heat persisting. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 105-110 degrees. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed each day through late week for portions if not all of east central Florida. However, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop each afternoon and evening (rain chances ~30-50 percent), bringing some relief to the heat later in the day. Some stronger storms will still be possible each day, with the main threats continuing to be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding. Greatest storm coverage will still focus west of I-95, with convection then winding down into late evening. Mostly dry conditions then forecast during the overnight hours, with it remaining warm and muggy, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...A front will push southward into north Florida during the weekend and linger north of the area through early next week. This will lead to increasing moisture and rain chances through the period, with PoPs up to 50-70 percent each afternoon/evening. This will help bring some relief to the ongoing heat wave, but highs will still be near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will still remain elevated, but look to largely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, around 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Today-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions generally forecast through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area over the next several days, with winds out of the west-southwest in the morning/overnight hours and becoming southeast each afternoon as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds speeds forecast to overall remain below 15 knots with seas 1-2 feet in the nearshore waters and up to 3 feet at times in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible over the waters, especially overnight and into the morning hours. Majority of afternoon convection looks to remain over land, but a weak offshore steering flow may allow for some storms to make it back toward the coast and just offshore during the afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conds early this morning with light SW winds. Expect scattered storm development in the KISM-DAB and KDAB-KMLB corridors from 20z-24z with isolated storms lingering from KISM- KSFB into the evening. Lower convective coverage is expected mainly inland from the coastal route from KVRB-KSUA this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 96 78 94 77 / 40 30 40 10 MCO 96 78 96 78 / 50 30 50 10 MLB 95 78 93 78 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 95 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 10 LEE 96 78 94 78 / 50 20 40 10 SFB 97 78 96 78 / 50 30 40 10 ORL 97 79 96 79 / 50 30 50 10 FPR 95 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239718 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON... ...FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURS AND FRI... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Surface troughing shifts just north of the area today as stacked high pressure "re-builds" into the region from the east. Though this version of high pressure will not be as strong as the "heat dome" that has been over us for the last several days, it will still induce a light southwesterly flow and enough subsidence for above average high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the region. The high will bring a slightly drier airmass aloft with it, which will help to mix down slightly lower dew points as compared to Tuesday. However, still looking at peak heat indices in the 105 to 110 range by this afternoon, and therefore have placed our whole region in a Heat Advisory. Regarding convective chances: slightly drier air and more subsidence does look to limit convective coverage later today, albeit only slightly as still looking at mostly a 30 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, the higher end of those chances being generally north of Waycross where marginally higher layer moisture and troughing influence remain. As per usual, some isolated stronger storms will be possible as well, capable of very heavy downpours and downbursts in the 40-50 mph range. Any remaining convection will slowly dissipate after sunset tonight, with the highest chances of lingering showers and storms being interior GA. Low temps in the mid to upper 70s will be common. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Subsidence will strengthen further on Thursday as ridging aloft continues to retrograde slowly westward, with this feature being positioned directly over our area by Thursday afternoon. Only isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection is expected to develop along inland moving mesoscale boundaries, with another collision likely towards sunset along the I-95 corridor. The main hazard with any pulsing storms later on Thursday afternoon and evening will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes. Very hot conditions will otherwise continue, with highs again soaring to the mid to upper 90s and maximum heat index values peaking solidly within Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 F) during the afternoon hours. Lingering convection along the I-95 corridor / coastal locations early on Thursday evening will again dissipate before midnight, with leftover debris clouds thinning out quickly later in the evening. Low level southwesterly flow will keep lows in the mid to upper 70s for inland locations and around 80 at coastal locations. Deep-layered ridging will continue to retrograde slowly westward on Friday and will begin to flatten as it becomes positioned to the west of our area during the afternoon hours in response to a trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes region. Moisture will begin to pool ahead of a cold front will that will enter the southeastern states on Friday afternoon, but these higher moisture values may not enter inland portions of southeast GA until after sunset. Coverage of afternoon convection should remain widely scattered on Friday, but an uptick in coverage and intensity may be possible across inland southeast GA on Friday evening as upstream activity and convective outflows migrate into the area from the north and northwest. Friday will be another oppressively hot and humid day, with highs yet again soaring to the mid and upper 90s and peak heat indices likely reaching Heat Advisory criteria at most locations. Convection should remain confined to southeast GA on Friday night, with lows again only falling to the mid and upper 70s across our region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Deep-layered troughing will continue to dig over the eastern half of the nation this weekend and early next week. The aforementioned cold front will push into southeast GA on Saturday afternoon, and we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop by the late morning and early afternoon hours for locations to the north of I-10, with activity then overspreading the rest of our area during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong storms will be possible, especially along the I-95 corridor in northeast and north central FL, where low level west-southwesterly flow will focus mesoscale boundary collisions later in the afternoon. Saturday should be the final day of Heat Advisory conditions for our region, with highs likely climbing to the low and mid 90s, especially for locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, where peak heat index values will likely reach the 108-112 degree range yet again. Showers and thunderstorms may continue to develop into the overnight hours on Saturday night along a stalling frontal boundary, with lows in the 70s area-wide. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue area-wide on Sunday and Monday as the frontal boundary remains stalled near the FL/GA border. The threat for localized flooding may increase early next week, especially at urban and normally flood prone locations. Cloud cover and early development of convection should keep highs in the mid to upper 80s for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, ranging to the lower 90s across north central FL. Convection may linger well into the evening hours on Sunday night, but may take on a more diurnal nature by Monday night. Lows will remain in the 70s region wide each night. "Heat Wave" ridging over the Desert Southwest will migrate eastward towards the Southern Plains states during the early to middle portions of next week. This feature will keep a rather sharp trough in place from the Great Lakes region southward through the Tennessee Valley to the FL panhandle. This weather pattern will maintain a deep southwesterly flow pattern across our area, which will promote widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze, with strong storm potential continuing along the I-95 corridor as mesoscale boundaries collide during the mid to late afternoon hours. The frontal boundary stuck over our region will begin to dissolve as Atlantic ridging builds westward across the FL peninsula, which should promote a more typical diurnal pattern to our daily thunderstorm activity than compared to what we expect on Sunday and Monday. Highs will thus begin to climb back to the low and mid 90s due to less morning convection by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR is expected to continue through the rest of the morning hours, with the exception of some lower vsbys at times at VQQ. Chances for convection will be slightly lower this afternoon and evening though still high enough confidence for PROB30 groups of TS at all airfields, with more detailed TEMPO groups likely later this morning. A developing sea breeze will push inland this afternoon, mainly affecting coastal sites. It is possible this breeze makes it to at least JAX however before any potential wind shifts from convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A trough of low pressure near GA waters will lift northward through Wednesday as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. This regime will then change little through at least Friday, which will result in a light offshore wind at night and a developing sea breeze during the daytime each day. A frontal boundary will approach area waters by Friday Night, and stall just north of or over GA waters for the weekend, resulting in an active pattern and higher chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be low to moderate through the next several days with a sea breeze developing daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Southwesterly surface and transport winds will gradually strengthen after sunrise today, with breezy transport speeds expected this afternoon across northeast and north central FL. These winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create marginally high daytime dispersion values across the Suwannee Valley this afternoon, with good values forecast elsewhere inland. Onshore surface winds developing during the early to mid afternoon hours will likely keep daytime dispersion values fair at coastal locations. Breezy southwesterly transport winds will prevail both days, with these winds combining with continued elevated mixing heights to create high daytime dispersion values for inland locations along and north of I-10 on Thursday afternoon, with fair to good values at coastal locations. High daytime dispersion values are then forecast at all inland locations on Friday, with good values expected at coastal locations. Coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend through early next week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THUR 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 102/2010 102/1999 102/1999 Gainesville, FL 100/1896 100/1892 100/1896 Craig Airport, FL 101/2010 101/1999 101/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 101/1961 102/1999 100/1999 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... WED 7/30 THUR 7/31 FRI 8/1 Jacksonville, FL 81/1872 78/1941 82/1873 Gainesville, FL 78/2010 77/2011 77/1893 Craig Airport, FL 80/2010 79/2011 79/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/1999 77/1999 77/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 75 96 76 / 50 30 20 20 SSI 94 80 95 80 / 40 30 10 10 JAX 98 77 98 77 / 40 20 30 10 SGJ 96 78 96 77 / 30 20 30 10 GNV 96 75 96 75 / 40 10 30 0 OCF 95 76 94 75 / 40 10 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433- 522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239717 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 226 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds today. Early this morning, seeing mostly clear skies over most of the area (outside of a few higher clouds). Warm/muggy this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s (upper 70s across the SE). Patchy fog is expected as we approach sunrise, with the highest coverage mainly across our Piedmont counties. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest later today, but remains well north of the area. Dewpoints will be a couple degrees higher today compared to yesterday as southerly flow ahead of the boundary allows for an uptick in moisture. Afternoon heat indices will top out between 100 and 104F, with a few spots potentially exceeding 105 for an hour or two. Due to the limited coverage and short duration of any 105+ heat indices, opted for no heat headlines today. Afternoon high temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s. Still can`t rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorms across our western Piedmont counties late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of the local area. Remaining warm and muggy tonight with lows in the mid 70s and upper 70s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds Wednesday. - A cold front approaches the area Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and storms. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest on Wednesday but will remain north of the local area. Southerly flow ahead of the boundary will allow for a slight uptick in moisture vs today. Still not expecting much shower or storm coverage with afternoon heat indices generally 100-104F. A few spots may approach or slightly exceed a 105 heat index for an hour or two but the limited coverage and short duration preclude heat headlines with this forecast cycle. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 90s with dew points mainly in the low/mid 70s. A few very isolated showers or storms are possible in the Piedmont late afternoon into the evening but guidance continues to back off on this scenario. Quite warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, the ridge breaks down across the east with the center of the high retrograding toward the SW CONUS. An upper trough drops SE from central Canada toward the region, forcing a strong cold front through the local area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included nearly the entire area in a Slight ERO as widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place across the region. SPC still has not included the region in any severe outlook, but would not be surprised if the region is included in subsequent outlooks given enhanced flow aloft associated with the upper trough and low level forcing with the approach of the surface cold front. Strong to severe wind gusts along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rain will all be threats with any storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s with dew points rising back into the mid or upper 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Shower and storm chances continue into Friday, with the highest rain chances across the southeastern half of the area. - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Latest guidance continues to slow the progression of the front on Friday with showers and storms likely across the SE half of the area through the afternoon and into the evening. The latest forecast from WPC has the vast majority of the area now in a Marginal ERO on Friday, due to the slower frontal progression. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday with upper 70s and low 80s across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out a lingering shower or storm Saturday (especially near the Albemarle Sound toward the coast). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist at all terminals for the 06z/30 TAF period. Only a few to scattered high clouds over the area, with some patchy fog developing in the piedmont. Confidence is low for any patchy fog developing near the coastal terminals, but not expecting any restrictions for the terminals at this time. Generally light winds will persist into Wednesday. SCT cumulus clouds are expected to redevelop tomorrow as mixing gets underway. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected until Thursday when a cold front approaches the area from the N. Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with degraded flight conditions likely in and around convection. && .MARINE... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mostly benign marine conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms through the middle of the week. - Confidence continues to increase as a stronger front approaches late this week with widespread Small Craft conditions possible from Friday into the weekend. Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure over the area. This is leading to benign marine conditions across all waters. Winds are light and variable ~5kt with wave heights ~1ft in the bay and 1 to 2 ft across the ocean. Overall, very optimal marine conditions across the local waters. These optimal marine conditions will prevail throughout tonight and most of tomorrow with light and variable winds ~5kt and waves ~1ft in the bay and 1 to 2 ft in the ocean. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will increase out of the SE as a cold front begins to approach the area. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt across all waters with some gusts nearing 20 kt. These sub SCA conditions will be brief Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Seas will also rise slightly with the increase in winds with waves between 1 to 2 ft across the ocean and the bay. There is also a brief period where some waves could increase to 3ft across the southern and mouth of the bay. Later in the week, hazardous marine conditions are expected to increase a a frontal passage is expected to stall over the area and a weak low pressure system is expected to from. Winds for Thursday will be out of the SSE between 10 to 15 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt. By Friday afternoon, the front is expected to be south of the area causing the winds to shift out of the NNE. Behind this frontal passage, a surge of cooler and drier air will come across the area helping to increase winds between 20 to 25 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt. These conditions are expected to last through Friday afternoon and into late Saturday before winds begin to decrease. Local wind probs have a 85 to 95% of frequent gusts 25kt across the ocean and 40 to 60% across the bay. Will also note, there is low confidence at this time but there is a 10 to 20% of frequent wind gusts of 34kt across the ocean, southern bay, and mouth of the bay. Again the confidence is low at this time but trends will continue to be monitored. Waves for late this week will also begin to increase across all waters. Wave heights will increase starting Friday afternoon and remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. Waves will peak at 6-7 ft in the coastal waters and 4-5 ft in the Ches. Bay on Saturday evening. Low risk for rip currents will continue through Thursday ahead of the cold front. Behind the front when winds become NE and increase substantially, the threat for rip currents will also increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239716 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 230 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Dangerous heat continues to be the driving headline for the next several days. A heat advisory is in effect for heat indices of 105- 111F this afternoon from 11AM to 7PM ET or 10AM to 6PM CT. The tri-state region sits between two mid level height centers; one over the southern Plains and the other over the Bahamas. PWATs across the area is over 2 inches. Overnight convection is ongoing through southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. This area is not handled well in the CAMs and raising pops up over model guidance through the overnight hours. Did add some patchy fog closer to daybreak especially in areas that received rainfall from yesterday. Ridge over the Bahamas builds westward today adding drier air and increasing subsidence over the northeast Gulf into the Florida Big Bend. PWATS drop this afternoon down towards 1.7 inches while 2+ inches remain through the Florida panhandle northeast towards south central Georgia. Better rain chances will follow this trend with 30- 40% in the Big Bend to 60% from the panhandle into southeast Alabama. Gusty to strong winds could occur with any stronger storms as DCAPE is in excess of 1000 J/kg. Highs today are a little lower compared to previous days with readings in the mid/upper 90s. Higher dewpoints will reside over the western half of the CWA today but this area will have the better chances of experiencing convection. Drier air over the Big Bend will allow some mixing to occur but will have less convection and more sun. Regardless, heat indices will run in the 105-111F range today and no changes were made to the advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A forecast 595dm high will be centered over the FL Peninsula for the start of the short term. This will limit our rain chances for Thursday afternoon and keep our temperatures very warm in the mid to upper 90s. With the lack of respite from widespread rain and continued warm dew points, heat advisories may be possible for Thursday with widespread heat indices ranging from 106-110 degrees. PoPs for Thursday range from 30-50 percent with higher values in our central time zone counties. As we move into Friday, an upper level trough from the north will start to break down the ridge. This will gradually increase our rain chances as well as gradually decrease our temperatures heading towards the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 For the Long term, the ridge breaks down as the upper level trough will move in from the north. Our PoPs will be increasing with widespread PoPs of 60-80 percent each afternoon. Gratefully, temperatures will be less hot with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s for the long term. The good news is that heat indices will be below advisory criteria, finally giving us a break. However, overnight lows will remain in the mid 70s. Through the weekend, the showers and thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall as evident of PWATs around 2.5". From Friday through Sunday, our region is highlighted in a Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall. Throughout the entire period, we could see a widespread 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Convection developed in the late evening in southeast Alabama and into southwest Georgia roughly from ABY to DHN and continues to develop at the moment. Models aren`t handling this convection too well so will add a mention of VCTS for the next few hours and metwatch. Some patchy fog is possible before dawn at DHN/ABY/TLH through 14Z and added a line for MVFR cigs/vsbys. During the day, better rain chances will occur from TLH-ECP where PROB30 for TS closer to any seabreeze convection in the afternoon whereas VCTS at ABY/DHN where better moisture will reside. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become more numerous as we head into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that will be the primary weather concerns for folks outside through the week. While rain chances will stick around today into Thursday, rain chances will decrease some as drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but dispersions will begin to creep up slowly through the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4) and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 50 10 40 10 Panama City 91 81 91 81 / 50 10 40 20 Dothan 94 75 93 76 / 60 20 40 10 Albany 96 75 95 77 / 50 20 30 20 Valdosta 96 75 97 76 / 40 10 20 10 Cross City 94 76 94 76 / 20 0 30 0 Apalachicola 90 81 91 80 / 30 0 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk from noon EDT today through this evening for FLZ115. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239715 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The main story continues to be the prolonged heat across the area. We`ll see one more day of heat indices rising into the 105 to 110 degree range, before the temps begin to drop (though only a couple of degrees). Upper ridging will remained anchored to our south, while a ridge builds over the Western CONUS. A weak trough will move through the Great Lakes, dampening the ridge somewhat over the area. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to our south will keep a southerly flow across the region, keeping a moist airmass in place. Given the weakening ridge, thunderstorm coverage may be a bit more today than we saw yesterday, especially given the current isolated to scattered storms moving across the region. Despite the storms, temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s once again today. While we may mix a bit this afternoon, given the fact that dewpoints are currently in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, we should still see those heat indices reach heat advisory criteria. Regardless, low temperatures have remained in the upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat. The prolonged nature of these conditions will exacerbate any heat related illnesses. As mentioned above, we`ll start to see a downward trend in temperatures as we head into the weekend. Upper ridging will remain to our south, while the aforementioned tough digs into the TN Valley. This may provide a greater coverage of thunderstorms on Thursday, as a weak frontal boundary moves into northern Alabama. The axis of the trough will move off the East Coast and generally remain in place through the weekend with northerly flow persisting over the local area. The combination of drier air and a greater coverage of storms will keep temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend. Uncertainty is high with regard to how far south the front reaches, though guidance is fairly consistent on the boundary reaching our area and lingering during the first part of the new work week. Thus, scattered to numerous PoPs were maintained through the forecast package. /73 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will move right along the coast over the next couple of hours, and are expected to remain south of the terminals. Trends and guidance suggest this activity will dissipate; however, I can`t rule out a thunderstorm briefly impacting KPNS or KJKA through 08Z. Otherwise, a typical summer pattern continues, with afternoon thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorms will be brief and all activity should end by sunset. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to moderate west to southwesterly flow will continue through the end of the week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 77 93 77 94 75 92 74 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 70 40 Pensacola 92 80 92 80 93 79 92 76 / 60 30 60 20 60 40 70 60 Destin 92 81 92 82 92 80 92 78 / 60 20 50 20 60 40 70 70 Evergreen 96 75 95 75 95 72 93 72 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 70 40 Waynesboro 96 74 94 74 95 72 92 70 / 60 40 60 20 60 30 60 30 Camden 95 75 93 75 94 73 92 72 / 60 30 60 20 60 30 60 30 Crestview 93 75 93 75 94 74 93 73 / 60 20 60 20 60 30 70 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239714 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail east of the area for most of the week, along with a trough of low pressure inland. A cold front may stall near the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Convection has re-fired over portions of Colleton, Dorchester and Charleston counties. Expect some areas will get 1-2 inches or more of rainfall in the next few hours. May need to issue Flood Advisories. This convection appears to have formed within the inland trough of low pressure, especially over areas that didn`t receive convection yesterday, and therefore remain unstable. CAMS generally show scattered convection will continue, especially over our SC zones, through the rest of the early morning hours within the area of low level convergence associated with the surface trough. By after sunrise and into this afternoon: Convection should die down some after sunrise, but then redevelop by afternoon with strong afternoon heating and CAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg. Some storms could become strong, especially where boundary collisions occur. Given relatively slow storm motions, along with PWs over 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding of low-lying areas will again be possible this afternoon. Despite the increased rain threat, have continued the Heat Advisory for this afternoon, generally along the SC coast and across much of our GA zones with max heat indices of 108-112. Of course, convection could disrupt temperatures and humidity, which could impact the Heat Advisory. Tonight: Convection is expected to decrease in coverage. However, given ample moisture and presence of instability, it is likely that at least isolated convection will persist much of the night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday: Subtropical ridge begins to weaken by late week, as multiple shortwaves aloft carve out a longer wave trough across the eastern CONUS. This will support a continued risk for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. In regard to temperatures, look for highs to remain in the mid to upper 90s, with perhaps a few locations across southeastern Georgia flirting with 100 degrees. Similar to days past, will see heat indices peak between 105-108 degrees inland to 108-112 degrees along/east of I-95 prior to the onset of any convection. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed, but these will largely be driven by the timing and extent of afternoon convection - so stay tuned for future updates! Saturday: Broad upper level trough and its attendant sfc cold front continue to sag southeastward across the region Friday night, resulting in a fairly wet and unsettled pattern over the weekend. While showers and storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning, expect the better chances to arrive during the afternoon hours as instability and moisture increase. Temperatures during this time will also be notably cooler, as highs only rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s under cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dreary conditions continue Sunday and Monday as the aforementioned front stalls along the coast. With PWATs greater than 2 inches, could certainly see periods of locally heavy rainfall, which may result in flash flooding. As noted in the previous discussion, confidence still remains too low at this time to determine if the risk for flash flooding will be widespread enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Do think it`s worth noting, however, that WPC`s latest 7 day QPF forecast does highlight totals potentially reaching 3 to 5 inches across our area, with a bulk of those values expected to fall over a 3 day period (Saturday through Monday). Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days, especially for those folks who have outdoor plans! Otherwise, look for seasonally cool temperatures to prevail for the remainder of the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS and KJZI Scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped within 5 nm. Have added VCTS for both sites with tempo MVFR CIGs for next few hours. Expect convection to redevelop this afternoon then push inland later in the afternoon/evening. Flight restrictions possible with any showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. Expect a return to VFR conditions after 00z 31 July. KSAV: VFR conditions likely to prevail through this morning. By afternoon, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected. So, have kept tempo for convection through mid/late afternoon with flight restrictions possible. Expect return to VFR after 00z 31 July. Extended Aviation Forecast: The risk for flight restrictions due to showers/tstms will persist each afternoon/evening with chances ramping up over the weekend. && .MARINE... No highlights are expected through tonight. Atlantic high pressure will remain centered southeast of the waters, with an inland trough of low pressure. Generally southerly winds of 5-15 kts, strongest near the coast in the afternoon as the seabreeze develops. Seas 2 to 3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm offshore of the GA waters. Scattered mainly morning and late night showers and thunderstorms. Extended Marine: Southerly wind regime will prevail through Friday. Winds will begin to turn northeast over the weekend as a cold front stalls out near the area. Winds will generally remain 15 kt or less through the period, although winds may get as high as 15- 20 kt over the weekend across mainly the South Carolina waters as the gradient pinches a bit behind the cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 30: KCHS: 81/2016 KCXM: 83/2016 July 31: KCHS: 80/2022 KSAV: 80/2010 August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ047>052. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239713 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 201 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .DISCUSSION... A moist and unstable environment remains over the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms still ongoing early this morning on old boundaries mainly around Tampa Bay that should diminish further into the morning hours. A heat advisory remains in effect as apparent Ts reach 108-112 in many locations again today. The large heat dome is expected to slowly move out of the area later today as we transition into SW to W low level steering flow while the surface ridge axis shifts southward to end the work week. This pattern favors morning convection near the coast, shifting inland and and increasing in coverage over the interior and E FL. Over the weekend, a weakening cold front is expected to stall in N Florida pushing the surface ridge even further S keeping scattered to numerous storms in the forecast, especially across the Nature Coast closer to the boundary. The more typical SE summertime flow pattern is expected to return next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) ISOLD TSRAs remain around the Tampa Bay area terminals but expect that activity to wane shortly with VFR conditions and light SW winds. Continue to expect afternoon SHRA/TSRA around 16Z WED that moves inland and will keep PROB30 TSRA at all terminals through about 22Z. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure will remain in the region and meander over the Eastern Gulf with generally light winds and seas. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day through the week. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours could accompany these storms and make for localized hazardous conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Summertime condition continue with hot and humid conditions with light winds and high RHs daily. The afternoon sea breeze will move inland with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 83 94 82 / 20 10 30 10 FMY 94 79 94 79 / 30 10 40 20 GIF 97 78 96 78 / 40 20 40 10 SRQ 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 30 10 SPG 91 82 91 82 / 20 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1239712 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 208 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unusually hot weather with high humidity will continue through Friday. A cold front should push through by Friday night bringing noticeably cooler weather for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Heights build to our west today at 500mb while another high will be found offshore. The area will thus find itself in a bit of a weakness in the height field that will allow for higher convective coverage than normal in addition to a possibly earlier convective initiation time. These factors (and the resulting added cloud cover) should temper afternoon heat/heat index values to where we can have our first day in several without any heat-related headlines. Convective coverage will decrease tonight but blended guidance does have it continue in a spotty fashion in the presence of such high dewpoints and a continued shortwave presence within aforementioned weakness in the height field, aided by a developing prefrontal trough. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Somewhat zonal flow aloft for Thursday and with embedded shortwave energy along with the aftn sea breeze and convective outflows, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. The high rain chances will complicate the max heat index forecast, with earlier and more widespread coverage of rain potentially capping heat indices below 100 degrees. For now, will keep most readings below Heat Advisory criteria but still in the 100-104 degree range, with actual high temps in the lwr 90s. With decent deep-layer moisture and lingering outflow boundaries, could see scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight, with low temps in the mid/upr 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain chances further increase into Friday, with the highest PWAT of the week over the area along with an approaching cold front. PoPs up to 70-80%, with the rain moderate to heavy at times. Similar to Thursday, timing of the rain will affect how high heat indices get...currently expecting at least mid 100s, near Heat Advisory criteria. Trickier forecast for Saturday, as some guidance keeps the day dry due to a clean cold fropa to the south, while other guidance keeps the front in close proximity and thus high rain chances. For now, PoPs are 70-80% near the coast and lower inland, with moderate to heavy rain again possible. PoPs slowly decrease thereafter into early next week as sfc high pressure builds in from the north, but cannot rule out rain any of the days with the weak front nearby and cyclonic flow aloft. Temps noticeably lower after Friday, with highs only in the 80s every day through Tuesday and heat indices only up to the 80s-90s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Inland fog slated for the predawn hours mainly inland, through with convective debris cloud cover present confidence a bit low in that guidance may be a tad pessimistic. Otherwise a VFR forecast save for setup similar to yesterday wherein thunderstorm coverage will be elevated above the seasonable norm of about 30 percent. Storms may also fire earlier than normal (in fact as of this writing a mass of storms is approaching MYR and CRE from the south). This makes pinning down timing and favored locations difficult at the tendency for storms to favor SC like yesterday appears to have lessened. In heavy rain vsby could once again dip as low as IFR in any given storm but for now can`t get specific enough to advertise what would be short- lived restrictions rather than more widespread MVFR. Thunderstorms wane to shower overnight and become more spotty, the resulting cloud cover should prevent as much fog. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in thunderstorms. Vis and low cig restrictions are possible each night through the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...We continue to have a poorly defined pressure gradient across most of the western Atlantic keeping both wind waves diminutive and preventing the generation of swell energy. Light and variable winds will react to the seabreeze nearshore while a larger scale southerly flow develops tonight on the east side of a coastal prefrontal trough. Thursday through Sunday...10-15 kt SW winds will continue Thursday and Friday until a cold front drops through Friday night, veering winds to the NW then NNE Saturday, up to 15-20 kt late Saturday through Sunday. 2-3 ft seas Thursday and Friday will also slowly rise into the weekend following the cold fropa, up to 5 ft for Saturday night and Sunday. Current forecast keeps conditions below SCA thresholds, but there is a low chance of a marginal SCA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239710 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Hazardous heat continues today and into late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM across all of east central Florida for peak heat index values of 108-112 degrees. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. - Shower and storm chances will be near-normal through mid to late week (30-50%), especially over the interior, with rain chances then increasing through the weekend into early next week (up to 60-70%). && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight... Mid-level ridge across TX/AR/LA region and extending across the Deep South will remain in place. The Atlantic ridge axis will begin to develop today and will build westward towards the Florida peninsula by tonight. At the surface, high pressure across the region will begin to weaken through the time period. Locally, S/SW winds will dominate and will bring a slight increase in moisture across east central Florida which will impact heat indices. The main story today will continue to be extreme and dangerous heat across the local area, especially along and north of the I-4 corridor this afternoon, including the greater Orlando area. Near record highs continue this afternoon, with highs forecast to reach in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. These temperatures coupled with increased moisture, will produce peak heat indices of 110-115 degree. Thus, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and Osceola Counties until 7 PM this evening. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the remainder of east central Florida for highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indies of 108-112 degrees. The increase in moisture will also lead to a little greater coverage of convection this afternoon, mainly across the interior. There is a low to medium (30-40 percent) chance for showers and lightning storms across this area later this afternoon and into early evening. The 15Z XMR sounding shows some drier air aloft, which will support some storms becoming stronger this afternoon. Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering activity will diminish in the evening, with overnight conditions remaining very warm and muggy. Lows are forecast in the mid to upper 70s with some spots along and NW of I-4 that are forecast not to fall below 80 degrees. This may lead to some additional warm minimum temperatures being tied or broken. Wednesday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Mid-level ridge is reinforced across the area from mid to late week, continuing abnormally hot and humid conditions across the area. The surface subtropical ridge axis will remain south of the area, producing a relatively light low level W/SW flow across the region. This will still allow the east coast sea breeze to form but will have a slower progression inland, allowing highs to still rise to the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday, as rain chances will gradually be on the rise. Still, peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 106-112 degrees, with some areas north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast potentially still nearing extreme heat conditions (heat indices near 113 degrees) on Wednesday. However, for now, have issued a Heat Advisory for all of ECFL for Wednesday from noon until 7 PM. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be need for portions if not all of east central Florida Thursday and Friday. The complicating factor remains the increase in shower and lightning storm activity through mid to late week. This increase in showers and storms will help provide some relief to the heat in the afternoon. Because of this increase in moisture and storm chances, confidence that portions of ECFL will reach Extreme Heat Warning criteria are not high. So have opted to just have a Heat Advisory for the whole area for now. Shower and storm chances rise to more normal values around 30-50 percent, with greatest storm coverage across the interior where boundary collisions are favored. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible each afternoon/evening. Saturday-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A frontal boundary will shift gradually southward and stall across north Florida during the weekend into early next week, with ridge axis remaining south of the area. This will increase moisture and rain chances through the period and finally begin to put an end to the unusually hot and humid conditions. There is a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of rain and storms across the region each day. Highs will still reach the mid 90s across much of the region Saturday, but then fall to the low to mid 90s Sunday and Monday, with peak heat index values closer to around 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Rest of today-Sunday.... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through the weekend, with hot and humid conditions persisting as a weak reinforcing Atlantic ridge axis shifts westward towards the Florida peninsula. High pressure axis will generally remain south of the area through the period. This will result in S/SW winds to dominate each day before backing to the southeast each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Wind speeds will generally remain below 15 KT. Seas 1-2 ft in the nearshore waters and up to 3 ft at times in the offshore waters. Isolated showers will be possible today, but coverage of showers and storms will increase mid to late week, with isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast to develop over the waters each day, especially during the morning and overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conds early this morning with light SW winds. Expect scattered storm development in the KISM-DAB and KDAB-KMLB corridors from 20z-24z with isolated storms lingering from KISM- KSFB into the evening. Lower convective coverage is expected mainly inland from the coastal route from KVRB-KSUA this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 96 78 94 77 / 40 30 40 10 MCO 96 78 96 78 / 50 30 50 10 MLB 95 78 93 78 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 95 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 10 LEE 96 78 94 78 / 50 20 40 10 SFB 97 78 96 78 / 50 30 40 10 ORL 97 79 96 79 / 50 30 50 10 FPR 95 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264- 347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239709 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. - Borderline elevated fire weather this afternoon/evening over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Limited by weak winds. - Low rain chances return Thursday into early next week, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Clear skies, light winds, and below-normal moisture are associated with a mid-level ridge and surface high currently situated over the region. Allowing for areas to patchy dense fog this morning across the inland Coastal Plains. This pattern will continue through tonight as the center of the high retrogrades westward today allowing an inverted trough to approach the Texas coast from the east and lingering over the region Thursday through Friday. The inverted trough will result in increased moisture through the weekend with PWAT values around 1.75"-2". This moisture, combined with PVA associated with the aforementioned inverted trough, will warrant low rain chances (15-25%) through the weekend. Early next week, a mid-level high begins to move into the region from the west along with a shortwave rounding the periphery of the high allowing for low rain chances to continue through the first half of the week but the best rain chances remain off to the northeast. A minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts will continue Wednesday, then increase to moderate/major the remainder of the week into the weekend and early next week due to increasing moisture and air temperatures. surface temperatures in the lower 90s will persist along the coast with values around 105 over the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will peak around 105-110 degrees the remainder of this week into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected to last through the period for the western sites. The conditions at the eastern sites (ALI,CRP,VCT) are expected to deteriorate over the next couple of hours dropping to IFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs. This is expected to trend through mid-mornning 14-15Z before burning off allowing conditions to return to VFR through the remainder of the period. Winds are expected to be light through the day today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) variable flow is expected to continue through this evening before becoming a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly flow through early next week. There is a very low 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into early next week mainly over the offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Very dry air with minimum relative humidity around 20% along with Energy Release Component (ERC) values above the 75th percentile, and occasional wind gusts approaching 20 mph will once again lead to a greater risk for elevated fire weather this afternoon over the northern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, sustained winds are expected to remain less than 15 mph, thus limiting the fire weather threat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 98 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 100 75 98 76 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 103 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 101 74 100 74 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 93 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 80 91 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239708 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather persists through Thursday, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 925 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warm and muggy tonight. Expansive upper ridge remains centered over the central CONUS with the main belt of stronger westerly flow generally from the northern Plains into Ontario and New England. Mostly clear, warm, and very humid this evening with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints generally in the mid to locally upper 70s. Dry but remaining warm and muggy tonight with low temperatures in the 70s with a continued mostly clear sky. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Moisture increases a bit but heat indices are generally expected to stay below Heat Advisory thresholds Wednesday. - A cold front approaches the area Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and storms. A cold front begins to drop southward from the Midwest on Wednesday but will remain north of the local area. Southerly flow ahead of the boundary will allow for a slight uptick in moisture vs today. Still not expecting much shower or storm coverage with afternoon heat indices generally 100-104F. A few spots may approach or slightly exceed a 105 heat index for an hour or two but the limited coverage and short duration preclude heat headlines with this forecast cycle. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 90s with dew points mainly in the low/mid 70s. A few very isolated showers or storms are possible in the Piedmont late afternoon into the evening but guidance continues to back off on this scenario. Quite warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, the ridge breaks down across the east with the center of the high retrograding toward the SW CONUS. An upper trough drops SE from central Canada toward the region, forcing a strong cold front through the local area late Thursday into Friday. Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected ahead of the frontal passage Thursday. WPC has included nearly the entire area in a Slight ERO as widespread convection combines with deep moisture in place across the region. SPC still has not included the region in any severe outlook, but would not be surprised if the region is included in subsequent outlooks given enhanced flow aloft associated with the upper trough and low level forcing with the approach of the surface cold front. Strong to severe wind gusts along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rain will all be threats with any storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Thursday afternoon high temps generally in the low 90s with dew points rising back into the mid or upper 70s. Depending on specific timing of increasing clouds and showers/storms, a portion of the area may approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Shower and storm chances continue into Friday, with the highest rain chances across the southeastern half of the area. - Much cooler and drier air moves into the area Saturday into early next week. Latest guidance continues to slow the progression of the front on Friday with showers and storms likely across the SE half of the area through the afternoon and into the evening. The latest forecast from WPC has the vast majority of the area now in a Marginal ERO on Friday, due to the slower frontal progression. Temperatures feature a wide range on Friday with upper 70s and low 80s across the N and NW and mid to upper 80s S and SE. Clouds and rain chances begin to diminish from northwest to southeast later Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows dropping into the 60s (70s across the SE) Friday night. Depending on how quickly the front progresses south, can`t rule out a lingering shower or storm Saturday (especially near the Albemarle Sound toward the coast). Otherwise, drier and much cooler air filters into the area this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the area from the Great Lakes region. High temperatures Saturday through Monday will generally be in the low 80s (upper 70s in spots Saturday) with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 50s for NW portions of the area. It will likely be breezy along the coast, especially Saturday, with onshore winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions persist at all terminals for the 06z/30 TAF period. Only a few to scattered high clouds over the area, with some patchy fog developing in the piedmont. Confidence is low for any patchy fog developing near the coastal terminals, but not expecting any restrictions for the terminals at this time. Generally light winds will persist into Wednesday. SCT cumulus clouds are expected to redevelop tomorrow as mixing gets underway. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected until Thursday when a cold front approaches the area from the N. Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with degraded flight conditions likely in and around convection. && .MARINE... As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mostly benign marine conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms through the middle of the week. - Confidence continues to increase as a stronger front approaches late this week with widespread Small Craft conditions possible from Friday into the weekend. Afternoon weather analysis shows high pressure over the area. This is leading to benign marine conditions across all waters. Winds are light and variable ~5kt with wave heights ~1ft in the bay and 1 to 2 ft across the ocean. Overall, very optimal marine conditions across the local waters. These optimal marine conditions will prevail throughout tonight and most of tomorrow with light and variable winds ~5kt and waves ~1ft in the bay and 1 to 2 ft in the ocean. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will increase out of the SE as a cold front begins to approach the area. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt across all waters with some gusts nearing 20 kt. These sub SCA conditions will be brief Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Seas will also rise slightly with the increase in winds with waves between 1 to 2 ft across the ocean and the bay. There is also a brief period where some waves could increase to 3ft across the southern and mouth of the bay. Later in the week, hazardous marine conditions are expected to increase a a frontal passage is expected to stall over the area and a weak low pressure system is expected to from. Winds for Thursday will be out of the SSE between 10 to 15 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt. By Friday afternoon, the front is expected to be south of the area causing the winds to shift out of the NNE. Behind this frontal passage, a surge of cooler and drier air will come across the area helping to increase winds between 20 to 25 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt. These conditions are expected to last through Friday afternoon and into late Saturday before winds begin to decrease. Local wind probs have a 85 to 95% of frequent gusts 25kt across the ocean and 40 to 60% across the bay. Will also note, there is low confidence at this time but there is a 10 to 20% of frequent wind gusts of 34kt across the ocean, southern bay, and mouth of the bay. Again the confidence is low at this time but trends will continue to be monitored. Waves for late this week will also begin to increase across all waters. Wave heights will increase starting Friday afternoon and remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week. Waves will peak at 6-7 ft in the coastal waters and 4-5 ft in the Ches. Bay on Saturday evening. Low risk for rip currents will continue through Thursday ahead of the cold front. Behind the front when winds become NE and increase substantially, the threat for rip currents will also increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1239707 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to maintain dry and hot conditions across deep south Texas through next Wednesday. Although air temperatures are likely to remain near average, mainly clear skies and persistent onshore southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to add additional heat and moisture to an already very warm atmosphere, leading to widespread coverage of afternoon temperatures in the triple digits from the Rio Grande Plains to as far east as I-69 E in the lower RGV from Thursday into Sunday, with 100`s possible in Harlingen over the weekend. Factoring in the increasing moisture, daily afternoon heat indices of at least 100-110 degrees are likely, possibly surpassing 111 deg F for several hours Friday into next Tuesday, which may lead to a daily issuance of Heat Advisories and/or Special Weather Statements in deep south Texas as mid-level ridging persists over the southern plains. As such, Wednesday may be the "coolest" day of the forecast with heat risks across the region ranging from slight (level 1/4) to moderate (level 2/4) before elevating to mostly moderate by Thursday, with isolated pockets of major (level 3/4) expanding slightly Friday into next Monday. Highs in the mid 80s continue along the immediate Gulf coast and overnight temperatures across the CWA are expected to fall into the 70s to as warm as the lower 80s. A low risk of rip currents at local beaches continues tonight through the day on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Very light winds and elevated low level moisture may lead to some patchy fog late tonight. Will mention a TEMPO at all terminals between 09-13Z for a brief period of MVFR/IFR visibilities near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds overnight will become southeast light to moderate later this morning into the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Favorable marine conditions are expected into next Wednesday as gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds continue to result in slight to moderate (1-3 feet) seas. Hot and dry conditions continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239706 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 We are slowly transitioning back to a more typical summertime pattern as the upper-level ridge, which gave us several days of very hot/dry weather retrogrades to the west. Another upper ridge starts to build over the Florida peninsula by mid to late week. This will help to usher in a deep southwesterly flow across the local area, with several embedded shortwaves expected to move overhead. By the weekend, and into early next week, weak upper troughing sets up across the southeast US. This should allow for a weakening frontal boundary to move into the local area from the north, likely stalling somewhere across the area. With PWATs generally above 2 inches and forcing induced by the shortwaves aloft and the approaching frontal boundary at the surface, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each day. Activity will generally follow a typical diurnal pattern, with showers and storms developing during the morning over our marine zones and along the coast, pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours, and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very heavy rainfall. The increase in rain chances should help to lower high temperatures a bit as we go through the period. Highs through Saturday will top out in the low to mid 90s, lowering slightly further into the upper 80s to low 90s by the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. We decided to extend the current areawide Heat Advisory through tonight and into tomorrow. The reason behind this is that lows tonight will likely only drop into the mid to upper 70s inland to the low 80s along the coast. After a day of heat indices reaching 108-112, these oppressive overnight lows will provide very little relief across the area, likely leading to increased heat-related vulnerabilities. This will be followed by another day of heat indices reaching 105-110 across the area. Of course, there are some questions regarding convective coverage tomorrow and whether or not rainfall could keep heat indices below criteria. Using today as a baseline, very little mixing occurred, allowing for many locations to hit our 108 criteria by as early as 11am, leading me to believe that this can happen again tomorrow (and possibly the following day or two). We will likely drop below Heat Advisory levels by the weekend. The rip current risk will generally be low through the week, although we are expecting a brief bump to moderate on Thursday for our western Florida Panhandle beaches due to increased onshore flow. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will move right along the coast over the next couple of hours, and are expected to remain south of the terminals. Trends and guidance suggest this activity will dissipate; however, I can`t rule out a thunderstorm briefly impacting KPNS or KJKA through 08Z. Otherwise, a typical summer pattern continues, with afternoon thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorms will be brief and all activity should end by sunset. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 A light to moderate northwesterly to westerly flow will continue through tonight. Winds turn southwesterly to westerly on Wednesday, which will persist through the end of the week. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 77 93 75 91 74 90 / 20 50 10 60 30 60 40 70 Pensacola 79 92 80 92 78 92 76 89 / 20 40 10 40 30 60 40 60 Destin 81 92 81 91 79 90 78 88 / 10 30 10 30 20 60 50 60 Evergreen 75 94 76 94 74 92 72 88 / 20 50 20 60 40 60 50 70 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 73 92 71 90 / 30 60 20 60 30 50 30 60 Camden 76 93 75 95 74 91 72 88 / 20 50 20 60 30 60 40 60 Crestview 76 93 76 93 74 92 73 89 / 10 50 10 60 30 80 40 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239704 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 111 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts after 15Z, with a westerly gulf breeze this afternoon at APF. SCT thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 94 76 93 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 80 / 20 10 20 0 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 81 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 97 81 96 82 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 78 / 30 10 20 10 Boca Raton 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 92 79 93 80 / 30 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239702 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 109 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Upper level ridge encompasses region. At the surface, trough extends from Savannah through Suwannee Valley with precipitable water values in SE GA between 2 and 2.2 inches and across NE FL 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Moisture convergence will occur near the sfc trough this afternoon with another focus being the seabreezes. Convection has already started to fire just west of the Suwannee Valley and interior southeast Georgia with these showers and storms pressing eastward as west coast sea breeze migrates eastward toward central peninsula and toward Waycross and Folkston. A few storms may also initialize and pulse along the I-95 corridor with east coast sea breeze during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours, with stronger storms pressing inland potentially containing downburst winds of 35-45 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours as it meets up with west coast seabreeze. Otherwise, heat is the main story, as oppressive humidity values combine with highs in the mid to upper 90s (encroaching 100 in some locations) to create peak heat index values in the 108-115 degree range. Extreme Heat Warning for most of the region the rest of the afternoon and early evening with Heat Advisory north and west of Alma to the Altamaha in the same temporal span. Showers will wane with the loss of daytime heating and gradual diminish to near nil about a couple hours after sundown. Muggy conditions overnight with lows in the 75 to 80 degree range. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Atlantic ridging builds over the region continuing SW flow into Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storms develop along the inland moving sea breezes. With the SW flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will remain pinned to the coast with the sea breeze merger occurring along the I-95 corridor in the late afternoon into evening. A few storms may pulse along the merger, with stronger storms potentially containing downburst winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours. Slightly less storm coverage on Thursday with the increase in subsidence. Despite the rain, the dangerous heat is expected to continue with daytime highs in the mid-upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s resulting in peak heat indices mainly in the 105-112 F range. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of NE FL and SE GA on Wednesday and is likely to be issued again on Thursday. Some portions of our area may be considered for an Excessive Heat Warning again where heat indices could possibly exceed criteria (113+ F). With continuous dangerous heat expected, it is important to refrain from extended periods outside during the afternoon hours and remain hydrated to avoid heat-related illness. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 A trough situated between a frontal boundary to the north and high pressure ridging extending in over the Florida peninsula from out of the east will stall over the region bringing more widespread showers and storms by the weekend as the advancing frontal boundary presses down into Georgia. Above average daily high temperatures will continue through the end of the week and then drop down to be closer to the seasonal average by the end of the weekend and into next week as increased diurnal convection increases towards the end of the forecast period. Heat index values are expected to reach into Heat Advisory levels through the end of the week and into Saturday before dropping slightly on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 VFR is expected to continue through the rest of the morning hours, with the exception of some lower vsbys at times at VQQ. Chances for convection will be slightly lower this afternoon and evening though still high enough confidence for PROB30 groups of TS at all airfields, with more detailed TEMPO groups likely later this morning. A developing sea breeze will push inland this afternoon, mainly affecting coastal sites. It is possible this breeze makes it to at least JAX however before any potential wind shifts from convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Ridging over the waters will break down slightly this afternoon and evening as a weak trough/front stalls over southeast Georgia. The front will essentially dissipate on Wednesday, and a ridge of high pressure will build back into the waters from the east. Offshore winds are expected to continue through the rest of the week as high pressure will be located south and east of the area, though become more southeasterly during the daytime hours as a sea breeze develops. Chances for showers and storms will remain generally lower than normal Wednesday through Friday before another front approaches from the north for the weekend and increases rain chances across area waters. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be low to moderate through the next few days with a sea breeze developing daily && .CLIMATE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... TUE 7/29 WED 7/30 THUR 7/31 Jacksonville, FL 100/1875 102/2010 102/1999 Gainesville, FL 99/1896 100/1896 100/1892 Craig Airport, FL 101/2016 101/2010 101/1999 Alma, GA (AMG) 99/2016 101/1961 102/1999 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... TUE 7/29 WED 7/30 THUR 7/31 Jacksonville, FL 80/1877 81/1872 78/1941 Gainesville, FL 77/1899 78/2010 77/2011 Craig Airport, FL 79/2017 80/2010 79/2011 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/2017 77/1999 77/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 75 96 76 / 60 20 20 10 SSI 94 80 95 80 / 30 10 20 10 JAX 97 77 97 77 / 50 10 30 10 SGJ 95 78 95 77 / 40 10 20 10 GNV 95 76 96 75 / 50 10 30 0 OCF 95 76 94 75 / 50 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433- 522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1239701 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Despite that, there are slight chances (less than 20 percent) of a shower or storm roughly east of I-45. - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Next week, temperatures will begin to drift back upwards, with a return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon storm coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 You know, if these past few weeks just haven`t been the summeriest stretch of Southeast Texas summer one could possibly get, I`m not sure how you could do it. The subtropical ridge is our main weather feature, with the nuances in its strength and position (and the passage of various upper troughs around the ridge`s fringe) dictating changes in the weather from day to day. For now, we remain in a stronger period for the ridge, and we`ve gotten some hot and even somewhat unseasonably dry days of late. But tomorrow, we`re going to *start* to see some transition. More significant moisture will attempt to bleed into area from the east, where it should be a little bit more humid while the west stays drier. Indeed, we may again see some isolated spots out in our northwest have their afternoon dewpoints mix to around 60 degrees. While not a huge change looks to make its way in, precipitable water looks to increase enough east of I-45 that we could see an isolated shower or storm pop up in the afternoon. Elsewhere, though, another day without rain is expected. By the late week and particularly the weekend, however, we`ll see sufficiently deep moisture and the arrival of enough modest troughing that we`ll see scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms each day. We`re not expecting any sort of widespread washouts, but as so often occurs around here - there`ll be enough moisture that the strongest storms of the day could produce localized flooding issues if they develop over a particularly vulnerable spot. On the plus side, increased clouds and rain chances will tamp down the temperatures a little bit, and the strong signal - especially near the coast - that we see in the Euro ensemble for above average to even near record heat will fade after Wednesday and likely be entirely gone by Friday. Not that it`s going to get cool at all...but it`ll at least fade into a more typical range of hot for the hottest time of the year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail going into the evening hours. With similar conditions to Monday night/Tuesday morning expected, another round of patchy fog is likely especially at the usual spots (CXO/SGR/LBX). This could lead to intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions mainly between 10Z-14Z. Other terminals could see brief periods of reduced visibilities right around sunrise. Wednesday morning will start out light westerly to southwesterly winds and becoming southerly along the coast behind the seabreeze. There is slight potential for isolated convection east of I-45, but chances are too low to include that in any of the TAFs for now. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast heading into the weekend. Locally higher winds and waves possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms later this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 99 80 97 / 0 10 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 81 95 83 93 / 0 20 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239700 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Surface ridge to our east has kept a light east to southeast wind flow today. Isolated showers that developed along the east coast have been dissipating after an hour or so or shifting westward towards the interior. No major changes were made to the current forecast other than increasing a bit the rain chances over Glades and Hendry this evening. Temperatures early this afternoon were in the mid to upper 90s and are expected to remain through the afternoon with not much relief in the overnight hours as the lows drop to the mid 70s across the interior and near 80 along the coastal areas. High temperatures for Wednesday will be similar to today`s and any heat headlines will be assessed with the overnight forecast update. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over SE GA and surface high pressure over the NW Gulf. At the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the SE US, while an upper level low that was over the Caribbean will move westward into the SW Gulf by Wednesday. Our weather today and Wednesday will be a fairly typical summer-time pattern with coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast each morning, and sea-breeze driven convection during the afternoon and early evening hours. With a light SE flow in place, expect western portions of the metro to be more in play for thunderstorms early in the afternoon before the convection focuses more over inland areas later in the day. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal the next two days with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 90s across the metro and mid to upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The SE flow will result in dewpoints being several degrees higher than what the area has seen over the past several days, which means heat indices of 105-110 are expected during the afternoon into early evening hours. Question remains whether or not criteria will be reached for a minimum of two hours. NBM mean apparent temps keep much of the area below criteria and latest HREF probs for reaching criteria are 10% or less for much of the area. Therefore, will refrain from issuing a heat advisory at this time, but regardless anyone with outdoor plans this afternoon should make sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Late in the week into the weekend a frontal boundary will slowly sag southward through the SE US as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Thanks to the ridge of high pressure over our region, this frontal boundary likely won`t make it much further south than northern FL before stalling out. Therefore our daily pattern in South FL through the weekend will continue to be fairly typical for this time of year with occasional overnight and early morning showers along the coast, and sea-breeze driven convection during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest PoPs each day over inland and SW FL. Temps will remain above normal through the weekend generally ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. With SE low level flow continuing through the weekend, dewpoints will remain elevated which means heat advisory criteria will be possible each day. Low temps will also remain mild ranging from the middle 70s over inland areas to around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts after 15Z, with a westerly gulf breeze this afternoon at APF. SCT thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the week, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally 2 ft or less this week in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 80 93 80 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 94 76 93 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 80 / 20 10 20 0 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 81 / 20 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 97 81 96 82 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 78 / 30 10 20 10 Boca Raton 95 78 94 79 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 92 79 93 80 / 30 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1239699 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 30.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Plenty to discuss as we type this discussion late Tuesday night, with many uncertainties in the forecast in the near-term thru early Wednesday and slightly beyond into the afternoon. Starting out with radar/obs trends, the cluster of storms that caused isolated severe wind gusts/damage during the afternoon on Tuesday has evolved by spreading out a cold pool surging an outflow boundary west and south into northern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, SPC Mesoanalysis illustrates ample CINH across the area as we`ve cooled/decoupled but still maintain ample elevated instability. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure center remains analyzed just south of Lake Charles and Houston in the NW Gulf, with a generalized mean NE flow setup over the northern Gulf coast, on the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge center over NE TX. Upstream, we`re seeing lingering weak clusters of storms and associated small cold pools over E MS and W AL. Now that we`ve set up where the players are on the field, recent HRRR guidance plays some tricky situations attempting to resolve where these current clusters progress. 1) Ongoing convection over our western waters/coastal zones and associated boundary slows, pressing up against W to SW surface flow increasing sfc confluence. Recent HRRR trends see this as identified strong low-level confluence/lift to support re-igniting coastal/marine convection through the morning hours. The inherited 01Z NBM is pretty loud with this solution, with a steady uptick in PoP`s for marine areas up to 40 to 60% through the daybreak to mid- morning hours, eventually surging a boundary north and spreading convection north to I-10/12 early in the day. Will advertise low confidence for how far north this convection can build towards the interstate early this morning. Currently anticipating it to be less in the way of convection in central areas, but will monitor trends and should see greater coverage over the coast. That`s player 1. Player 2 is the upstream small complex(s) over E MS and W AL, and how this evolves, or additional convection re-fires on boundaries entering our NE areas early this morning. Given widespread strong CINH as previously mentioned, having a hard time believing any remnant forcing can overcoming the CINH in place especially given the nocturnal timing. However, that`s not to say we can`t see some isolated/scattered redevelopment, especially around coastal areas. Did keep in the NBM painting 20-30% coverage over "greatest" confidence east of I-59. How either/or both solutions play out will determine how the heat builds tomorrow. If convection is far greater in the morning hours, remnant anvil canopy (or earlier development of convection) may offset how hot we get. Not confident on this, at all, and not anywhere close enough confident to touch the heat advisory, as it`ll still be hot regardless of where storms form. Just be aware, future forecast updates may be required to catch on how trends play out. Generally speaking after analyzing the regional synopsis and radar/mesoanalysis trends, we should see a mostly quiet night but as we all know, that can change. Wednesday will feature another hot day and at some point (likely late morning), convective turnover will occur and we`ll see more coverage over land. We could be faced with a very similar convective storm mode/pattern and coverage going into the afternoon/evening hours, with storms (numerous in some areas) expected. Storms will be mainly forced by previous storm`s outflow boundaries, and any boundary interactions/collisions will lead to localized stronger updrafts owing in isolated severe wind gusts, again similar to what we saw Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, no major adjustments were needed to temperatures. Generally much of the same going into Thursday, but CAMs being a bit farther out looks more "typical" with morning isolated marine convection and then turnover to scattered/numerous land convection during the day. Generally seeing a similar tropospheric profile aloft to suggest ongoing isolated strong/severe storm or two depending on boundary interactions/collisions. Currently anticipating another day of heat advisories, but will let subsequent shifts access the need given updated guidance. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Elevated rain chances, mainly from late morning through evening persists going into Friday and the upcoming weekend, this will be due in part by an approaching weak mid-level impulse within a weakness separated by two H5 594dm ridge centers (one over the SW US, and the other in the NE Gulf). This will allow for a weak front to approach the northern Gulf but slow down with time, supporting a generalized larger-scale foci for ascent needed for more numerous shower/storm coverage. Will also need to look at the risk for isolated flash flooding, but will double check this closer as we get into the late week time frame. Good news is (some) of the heat backs off, hopefully finally getting below advisory criteria towards atleast the later part of the weekend. Still plenty of time to monitor trends with latest guidance, but for now, have that umbrella handy and be weather-aware this weekend. KLG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Recent radar/obs and trends illustrate re-development of TSRA mainly across far coastal SE LA. Did adjust and attempt to time greatest storm coverage for the next 6hrs through 12Z for most terminals, but will advertise low confidence on how far north and east this activity can back build over land. Regardless, southern coastal terminals could see impacts early this morning (09-15Z) with SCT TSRA at times, reducing flight categories due to low CIGs and VIS. We`ll see another round of SCT TSRA again developing across land areas in the late morning, continuing into the afternoon/early evening hours to around 00-02z. Same impacts in any one strong storm, gusty erratic downdraft winds will be the main risks (upwards of 40 to 50 knots in any stronger, localized downburst). Outside of any TSRA activity, expect VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 We`ll continue to see an enhancement of mainly overnight through morning hour storm coverage each day through late this week and especially going into the weekend. In any one stronger/severe storm, wind gusts greater than 34 knots, waterspouts, and locally enhanced waves/seas can be expected. However, outside of any storm activity, conditions will be mainly calm with light to occasionally breezy onshore winds and light waves/seas expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 95 73 93 / 40 70 40 70 BTR 78 95 76 95 / 40 70 30 70 ASD 75 93 75 94 / 50 70 30 70 MSY 79 94 80 94 / 60 70 30 80 GPT 77 93 78 93 / 40 60 30 70 PQL 75 94 77 93 / 40 60 30 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
