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| No data for this date - Showing most recent prior to 04-18-2025 HWOSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... ./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 434 AM AST Fri Dec 8 2023/ While there is a possibility of limited afternoon convective development, a cool advective pattern will be the primary source of shower development during the forecast period, typical for this season. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft, confining moisture to the lower levels and, thus, suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development. However, weak upper-level troughs will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the influx of deep moisture into the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a subtropical surface high pressure system building over the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, breezy to locally windy conditions are likely with winds and gusts up to 20-30 mph and 30-40 mph, respectively. Under these conditions, expect intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture to reach the region, causing significant variations in moisture levels every 12 hours or so. According to model guidance, precipitable water will reach the highest and lowest values during the first half of the workweek, ranging from typical seasonal levels of around 1.6 inches by Tuesday afternoon to nearly well below seasonal levels of around an inch by Wednesday morning. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any. Although some patches of moisture will likely reach the local islands, the second half of the workweek is suggested to be more stable with generally below-normal precipitable water values. So far, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center on winds-related threats, mainly across coastal areas and lower elevations. && .AVIATION... VFR conds durg prd. FEW clds nr FL030...FL050 ovr the regional waters and en route btw islands. Isold SHRA. SHRA/-SHRA psbl mainly ovr east,central interior and SW PR with VCSH psbl mainly at TJMZ/TJPS til 23z. Isold passing SHRA psbl at TJSJ aft 21Z. SFC wnds fm NE 12-15 kts with ocnl hir gusts and sea breeze variations...bcmg calm to LGT/VRB aft 08/22z. && .MARINE... Current CARICOOS buoy observations near San Juan, Arecibo and Rincon show seas of 7.2 ft, 6.6 ft, and 6.5 ft, respectively, with a period of 11-12s. The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east- northeast winds will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. Seas are anticipated to reach up to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds increase to 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots over the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are or will soon be in place for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of south and southwestern Puerto Rico, where Small Craft Should Exercise Caution. For more information and details on current marine risks, refer to the SJU- WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU & CWFSPN) and the Marine Weather Message product (MWWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service. && .SURF ZONE... Into at least early next week, a High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, as well as for Culebra and the northern USVI, due to breaking waves increasing to around 8 feet. Tomorrow morning, a High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect for the easternmost beaches of St. Croix, lasting through at least early next week. For more information and details on current surf zone risks, refer to the SJU- WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for VIZ001. High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Tuesday afternoon for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ716-723-733-741. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ726. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ742. && $$ |
