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The next few weeks are likely to remain quiet in the Atlantic basin.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Corpus Christi, TX (Corpus Christi, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1233398 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of South Texas through the weekend. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Forecast remains on track with little change through the weekend into Monday. A strong ridge in the mid and upper levels centered over S TX, will keep rain chances very low (0-7%) through the weekend. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge combined with the arrival of Saharan Dust will lead to hazy conditions with visibilities around 5-6 miles at times over the weekend. In addition to the haze, the ridge will also lead to temperatures being 4-8 degrees above normal. This heat combined with the humidity will bring a major to extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the weekend into next Monday. A Heat Advisory for Saturday looks borderline with only a few locations expected to reach heat indices of 110-113. The Saharan dust may also keep temperatures a tad lower than what models are suggesting. Confidence in the need for Heat Advisories are higher for Sunday and Monday when more locations across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country are expected to exceed 110 for a longer duration and a few locations may briefly reach a heat index of 115. The probability of reaching 115 heat index for S TX is less than 20 percent. The Victoria Crossroads is expected to remain in a Moderate Risk of heat related impacts through much of the period. The ridge is forecast to retreat southwestward at the start of the work week, in response to a mid level trough of low pressure tracking southeastward toward S TX. Latest model runs are slower with this feature than previous runs and now show the trough moving across S TX Wed-Thu timeframe. As a result, rain chances have been lowered for Tuesday to 15% along the Rio Grande to 50% across the Victoria Crossroads. The highest chances are Wednesday with 30% along the Rio Grande to 60% across the Victoria Crossroads. A gradual decrease in rain chances is expected Thursday through Friday as the upper trough slowly moves east. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Gusty winds this evening will continue this afternoon and begin to decrease around 02-04z. Haze will impact all sites during this cycle, however, due to low confidence from a visibility standpoint, did not include in the TAFs as visibilities should stay above 6SM. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected tonight from 09-12z at ALI. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze can be expected through the weekend and into next week. A plume of Saharan dust is expected this weekend which will result in hazy skies. Rain chances return Tuesday with a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 91 82 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233373 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit any convective development. The arrival of a Saharan dust plume will further inhibit rainfall potential while also reducing visibilities today through the weekend. This subsident air mass will also support the persistence of hot conditions through early next week, with daily high temperatures running 3-8 degrees above normal. Forecast 850 mb temperatures between 20-25 degC are well above climatological averages, resulting in afternoon highs consistently reaching the triple digits across much of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country and the 90s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. South- southeasterly surface flow will continue to draw low-level moisture into the region, enhancing the risk for heat related stress/illness. Heat index values will range from 110-117 across much of the area, especially west of the I-37 corridor where the likelihood of a Major to Extreme heat-related impacts is greatest. As a result, future forecasts may require the issuance of Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings, specifically Saturday- Monday. Looking ahead to early next week, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to move across the CWA. This pattern shift combined with increasing atmospheric moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.2 inches), will lead to an increase in rain chances (20-70%) from Tuesday-Friday, with the highest chances focused over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. More limited activity is expected across the far western portions of the Brush Country due to its closer proximity to the lingering ridge. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall will help moderate temperatures slightly, with daytime highs expected to drop into the 90s areawide by midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mainly VFR conditions in place this morning but could still see brief MVFR at any site over the next few hours. Gusty winds develop once again. Tonight should be similar to what we have seen this morning with mainly VFR conditions but brief MVFR CIGS possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze can be expected through next week. A plume of Saharan dust moving into the region today will result in hazy skies through this weekend. Rain chances will return Monday night and increase through midweek next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 80 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 102 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233346 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across portions of South Texas through the weekend. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms area wide next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit any convective development. The arrival of a Saharan dust plume will further inhibit rainfall potential while also reducing visibilities today through the weekend. This subsident air mass will also support the persistence of hot conditions through early next week, with daily high temperatures running 3-8 degrees above normal. Forecast 850 mb temperatures between 20-25 degC are well above climatological averages, resulting in afternoon highs consistently reaching the triple digits across much of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country and the 90s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. South- southeasterly surface flow will continue to draw low-level moisture into the region, enhancing the risk for heat related stress/illness. Heat index values will range from 110-117 across much of the area, especially west of the I-37 corridor where the likelihood of a Major to Extreme heat-related impacts is greatest. As a result, future forecasts may require the issuance of Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings, specifically Saturday- Monday. Looking ahead to early next week, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to move across the CWA. This pattern shift combined with increasing atmospheric moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.2 inches), will lead to an increase in rain chances (20-70%) from Tuesday-Friday, with the highest chances focused over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. More limited activity is expected across the far western portions of the Brush Country due to its closer proximity to the lingering ridge. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall will help moderate temperatures slightly, with daytime highs expected to drop into the 90s areawide by midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Have included a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings at all terminals from 09Z-15Z. Saharan dust arrives tomorrow leading to some hazy conditions, so have also mentioned this in all TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze can be expected through next week. A plume of Saharan dust moving into the region today will result in hazy skies through this weekend. Rain chances will return Monday night and increase through midweek next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 80 94 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 102 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
