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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Corpus Christi, TX (Corpus Christi, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1181055 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 105 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south Texas. The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies. Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level (110F) won`t be reached. Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico, looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation. The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be limited over the region. Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%). Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk level (3 out of 4). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take breaks, and wear light, loose clothing. Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to burn well to our south. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR ceilings will prevail until this evening as low clouds will again push in from the Gulf. This will create MVFR ceilings across the eastern sites (ALI,CRP,VCT) around 00-03Z and around 06-07z for the western sites. A gradient will develop over the western sites and create slightly gusty winds overnight over LRD and COT. These winds could creep into site ALI for a couple of hours as well. Otherwise, MVFR conditions should transition to VFR tomorrow around 15-18Z across all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181020 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south Texas. The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies. Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level (110F) won`t be reached. Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico, looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation. The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be limited over the region. Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%). Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk level (3 out of 4). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take breaks, and wear light, loose clothing. Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to burn well to our south. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 As has happened the last several nights, low clouds and patchy fog rolls in off of the Gulf, and then hangs out over the region into morning. Once the sun is up, the fog burns off and we are backto VFR conditions until...around 03z/Wed the MVFR CIGs roll back into the region and stay overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181007 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 342 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south Texas. The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies. Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level (110F) won`t be reached. Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico, looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation. The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be limited over the region. Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%). Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk level (3 out of 4). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take breaks, and wear light, loose clothing. Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to burn well to our south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the this TAF cycle. Some brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected tonight at ALI and VCT due to a low chance of patchy fog developing tonight. Any site that drops to MVFR should return to VFR by tomorrow morning. Winds will also pick up tomorrow and be gusty at times, especially late in the afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180971 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1012 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 There`s no more putting it off, we`re settling in to a typically South Texas summer pattern. Mid-level ridging has built into the region and will hold strong through the short term. This along with surface ridging over the Southeast US spells warm and humid for us here in South Texas. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s area wide, with upper 70s to near 80 east. High temperatures Monday are forecast above 100 degrees for the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush country with mainly 90s for the rest of the area. Considering the high dewpoints (upper 70s east) and it being early season, this will mean an elevated concern for heat related illness, especially for those especially susceptible to the high heat. No mentionable rain chances are in place, but given the high humidity and moisture convergence near the coast, can`t rule out a morning streamer shower or sprinkle on Monday. In addition, the haze will likely stick around through the early part of the week, and tomorrow could be combined with some fog, especially in the northern coastal bend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the week Upper level ridging and persistent onshore flow will allow for temperatures to reach dangerous levels through the week. High temperatures will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices will climb through the week. Tuesday through Thursday will feature afternoon heat indices in the 110-114 range. By Friday, we begin to see heat indices of 115- 120 enter into the forecast for the Southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country. As a result, we will see a major to extreme risk of heat- related impacts through the long term period. Heat Advisories will be likely each day through the middle of the week with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the work week. Other than the heat in the long term, the ridge axis will nudge east by the middle of the week. Several shortwaves will rotate through the southwest flow aloft as a boundary stalls north of the region. The greatest chances for showers/storms will likely remain well north of the region. Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the this TAF cycle. Some brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected tonight at ALI and VCT due to a low chance of patchy fog developing tonight. Any site that drops to MVFR should return to VFR by tomorrow morning. Winds will also pick up tomorrow and be gusty at times, especially late in the afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected tonight through Tuesday Onshore flow then become more moderate by Tuesday night, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 77 93 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 73 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 88 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 100 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 76 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
