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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Corpus Christi, TX (Corpus Christi, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1274041 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Major risk of heat-related impacts today with peak heat indices 110 to 115 degrees across the Coastal Plains and high temperatures in the triple digits over interior locations. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A mid-level ridge will continue to control our weather pattern through early next week resulting in hot and dry conditions for the CWA. However, the aforementioned ridge`s eastern flank will weaken due to a strengthening trough in the Ohio Valley resulting in increased moisture filtering into the area. Model guidance is supportive of this as PWAT values are over 2", with isolated spots approaching 2.2". In addition, vorticity in the mid-levels (500 mb) will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Some guidance hints at a broken line of showers entering our northern counties tonight. However, this line looks to be in its decaying stage by the time it reaches our area so will maintain only 15-20% rain chances. Weak low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling nearly the largely-washed out boundary will maintain low-end rain chances through the day on Sunday before drier air moves in for the upcoming workweek and rain chances return to near zero. Due to the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, hot temperatures will prevail through the first week of August. Areas east of Highway 77 have a high chance of highs exceeding 100F through early next week. Today, heat index values will likely exceed 110F over much of the Coastal Plains (even approaching 115 in spots), and therefore a heat advisory has been issued for that region. Although there should be enough mixing of drier air towards the surface over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains to keep that region below criteria it will still be quite hot with a largely major (level 3/4) heat risk. This drier air will persist over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through most of the period with minimum RH levels dropping below 30% each afternoon. This, coupled with wind gusts between 10-15 kts will allow for an elevated fire risk into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Low level clouds and patchy fog have spread across the central portions of S TX this morning, but is expected to dissipate by mid morning. This is leading to a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions. A few spots are IFR including ALI and VCT. VFR conditions by mid morning will continue through this afternoon and most of tonight. Brief MVFR conditions expected once again toward Sunday morning. However, guidance is indicating that IFR conditions are much less likely. S-SE winds 5-15 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots, mainly eastern TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity will continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through early next week. While winds over the western Brush Country will remain relatively light during the afternoons, ERC values will run between the 60th and 75th percentiles and min RHs will dip below 30% each afternoon through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 97 78 / 0 10 20 0 Victoria 100 78 100 75 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 106 82 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 102 78 100 76 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 92 81 94 81 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 82 103 79 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 100 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274018 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 130 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Major risk of heat-related impacts today with peak heat indices 110 to 115 degrees across the Coastal Plains and high temperatures in the triple digits over interior locations. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A mid-level ridge will continue to control our weather pattern through early next week resulting in hot and dry conditions for the CWA. However, the aforementioned ridge`s eastern flank will weaken due to a strengthening trough in the Ohio Valley resulting in increased moisture filtering into the area. Model guidance is supportive of this as PWAT values are over 2", with isolated spots approaching 2.2". In addition, vorticity in the mid-levels (500 mb) will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Some guidance hints at a broken line of showers entering our northern counties tonight. However, this line looks to be in its decaying stage by the time it reaches our area so will maintain only 15-20% rain chances. Weak low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling nearly the largely-washed out boundary will maintain low-end rain chances through the day on Sunday before drier air moves in for the upcoming workweek and rain chances return to near zero. Due to the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, hot temperatures will prevail through the first week of August. Areas east of Highway 77 have a high chance of highs exceeding 100F through early next week. Today, heat index values will likely exceed 110F over much of the Coastal Plains (even approaching 115 in spots), and therefore a heat advisory has been issued for that region. Although there should be enough mixing of drier air towards the surface over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains to keep that region below criteria it will still be quite hot with a largely major (level 3/4) heat risk. This drier air will persist over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through most of the period with minimum RH levels dropping below 30% each afternoon. This, coupled with wind gusts between 10-15 kts will allow for an elevated fire risk into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through a majority of the TAF cycle. Brief MVFR conditions are expected after 09Z through 13Z, mainly for ALI and VCT. CRP site may also see very brief MVFR CIGs. Light winds expected through Saturday morning. Wind speeds expected to be a few knots lower than yesterday, but could still have gusts around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity will continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through early next week. While winds over the western Brush Country will remain relatively light during the afternoons, ERC values will run between the 60th and 75th percentiles and min RHs will dip below 30% each afternoon through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 97 78 / 0 10 20 0 Victoria 100 78 100 75 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 106 82 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 102 78 100 76 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 92 81 94 81 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 82 103 79 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 100 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
