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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Corpus Christi, TX (Corpus Christi, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1246995 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 03.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions this weekend with a medium chance for minor coastal flooding starting early Saturday morning. - Moderate risk of rip currents tonight into Saturday. Remember, "wave, yell, swim parallel!" - Guidance trended drier with daily low (20-30%) chance of showers and storms Friday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Latest guidance has trended towards keeping the mid-level low/trough farther east over the Gulf rather than near the Texas Coast. Therefore moisture and rain chances have lowered overall. The mid- level ridge over Mexico looks to dominate as it centers over the southern CONUS early next week. However, daily low shower and thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will remain present with near to above normal moisture interacting with the afternoon seabreeze and occasional bands of PVA wrapping around the backside of the mid- level low. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Our main concerns will remain focused on dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous beach/marine conditions this weekend, with a medium chance for minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents. Although I held off on a Coastal Flood Advisory this package due to slightly lower tide level guidance (P-ETSS and NGOFS2) and swell periods, we`ll still need to keep a close eye and reconsider due to: astronomical high tide approaching with a full moon phase, swell periods nearing 8 seconds, and moderate northeasterly winds inducing the Ekman transport mechanism. In fact, based on P-ETSS guidance, we`ll be flirting with water levels nearing the dunes during high tide into early next week but there`s quite a bit of ensemble uncertainty. Please use caution if going to the beach! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Expect fog to develop at ALI/VCT reducing VSBYs to MVFR from 09Z- 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will accompany light east/southeasterly winds and low chances for showers across eastern terminals tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 A generally light to gentle east to northeasterly breeze (BF 2-3) will continue early this morning before increasing to a moderate to strong breeze (BF 4-6) this afternoon and evening, nearing advisory levels. Winds will hover around advisory criteria through Saturday night along with seas 4-5 feet before winds decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday shifting back east to southeasterly. Low to medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday night. Low (20-40%) rain chances will persist from Sunday into the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 30-35% across the Rio Grande Plains today. Moisture increases Saturday into next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds and increased moisture will limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low (20-30%) shower and thunderstorm chances today continuing daily into the middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the Coastal Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 73 89 74 / 20 10 30 20 Victoria 92 67 91 68 / 20 10 20 10 Laredo 95 71 94 71 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 94 69 92 69 / 20 20 20 10 Rockport 89 75 89 75 / 20 10 30 20 Cotulla 95 70 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 92 70 90 71 / 20 20 30 10 Navy Corpus 87 78 86 78 / 20 10 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
