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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Corpus Christi, TX (Corpus Christi, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1225372 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 03.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 315 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above average temperatures, reaching into the 100s across the Brush Country. - Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range through Friday. A deep mid-to-upper level trough over the Desert Southwest continues to keep much of the region under dry, southwesterly flow aloft. However, at lower levels, moisture advection persists as south-southeasterly flow transports higher dewpoints into the CWA. A 40-55 knot 850mb LLJ off the coast is enhancing this moisture transport while also mixing down stronger winds to the surface. As a result, winds will be strongest in the coastal zones, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Saturday morning. HREF guidance shows low probabilities (10-20%) of winds reaching Wind Advisory criteria, so have opted against the issuance of one this forecast package. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored throughout the day today to determine if an inland advisory will be necessary. Later this morning, a dry line will push through the Brush Country before stalling near the Coastal Plains, maintaining hot and dry conditions to the west and warm humid conditions to the east. This dry line will also contribute to locally strong winds in the coastal zones today and into Friday as well as above-normal temperatures. Highs will climb well into the 90s across much of the area, with the Brush Country flirting with the triple digits. By late Friday into the weekend, the aforementioned mid-to-upper level system will track from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. More on this in the Long Term Discussion below! && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Key Messages: - Cold front Saturday with well below normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. - Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions return this weekend into next week. Not many changes from the previous forecast package. A cold front is still expected to push across the region Saturday with a good punch of cold air in its wake. Unfortunately, rain chances have come down across the area compared to last night`s forecast package. While the best chances for rain remain in the Saturday to Saturday night timeframe, only a few areas in the northwestern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads have a low (20-30%) chance for showers while most of South Texas remains dry. Any showers that develop are expected to be light with less than 0.10" forecasted for the aforementioned timeframe. Temperatures Saturday ahead of the front will be above normal with daytime highs running 5-8 degrees above normal, mainly across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Areas across the Brush Country will see near normal temperatures. Temperatures will quickly plummet in the wake of the front as a significantly colder airmass advects into South Texas with lows Saturday night dropping into the 40s and 50s. Daytime highs Sunday will be well-below normal with highs ranging 10-15 degrees below normal! A gradual warm up is expected Monday and Tuesday before returning to near normal values by mid-week and continuing through the end of the work week. As for the overnight lows, the chilly temperatures will hang around through Wednesday night before lows increase into the mid 50s to 60s Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Stratus has began spreading out from the eastern terminals this evening. This has led to MVFR ceilings along with some decreased visibilities. Elevated winds are expect to limit overall fog development though patchy fog will remain possible. Lower ceilings will likely reach COT and persist through daybreak along with the eastern terminals with periods of IFR possible. VFR conditions will return by midmorning and persist through the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated with gusts around 20-30 knots over the eastern portions of the region thanks to the 40+ knot LLJ overhead. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Fresh to strong (BF-5/6)southeast flow is expected from now until our next cold front on Saturday. Winds will weaken to more moderate levels (BF-4) Saturday as the front approaches and sweeps across the area before quickly increasing to strong to near gale levels (BF-6/7) Saturday night through Sunday morning. Winds will relax to fresh levels (BF-5) Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon before eventually decreasing to gentle to moderate levels (BF-3/4) Monday night through mid-week. Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances will be possible Saturday and Saturday night across the Gulf waters as the front swings by. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The passage of a dry line across the Brush Country will drop minimum relative humidity values as low as 10-30% today. 20-ft winds will remain on the weaker side and are expected to keep the fire risk at bay through the start of the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return this weekend into next week. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday and Sunday as relative humidity values across the Brush Country drop to the 20-30% range. The limiting factor will be the Energy Release Component (ERC) values below the 60th percentile. However, as we head into next week, ERC values will increase and spread eastward with reaching the 70-80 percentile range Tuesday which will be out best shot for critical fire weather conditions. Apart from the elevated ERC values, relative humidity values are forecast to range from 15-25% across the Brush Country and the 25- 40% range for the rest of South Texas. While relative humidity values are expected to remain relatively low, 25-30% across the Brush Country and 35-45% across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, relative humidity values will be above critical levels across the eastern half of South Texas with only the western half at risk for elevated fire weather conditions at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 74 89 73 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 90 73 87 71 / 10 0 10 20 Laredo 101 74 100 67 / 0 0 0 20 Alice 97 73 96 70 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 85 74 84 74 / 10 0 10 10 Cotulla 98 75 98 69 / 0 10 0 30 Kingsville 98 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 74 82 73 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225343 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 AM 03.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1050 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above temperatures Thursday afternoon, reaching into the 100s along the Rio Grande - Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range through Thursday night With the 500 hPa trough over the Desert Southwest, this places much of Texas under southwest flow aloft, keeping our mid-to-upper levels dry. At the surface and 850 hPa, higher dewpoints continue to be advected into the Southern Plains. At 850 hPa, a low-level jet continues to enhance this moisture advection, as well as mixing down higher winds aloft. These are primarily mixing down east of a daily dry line that moves through the Brush Country, keeping temperatures toasty to the west of this dry line, and muggy and warm to the east. With the dry line only making it as far as the coastal zones, this will be the primary area of locally stronger winds Thursday and Friday morning. The LLJ tonight seems to shift the axis of 40 kt+ winds more towards SE Texas. The LLJ on Friday morning does seem to bring near 60kt winds aloft over South Texas. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory will continue through at least early Friday morning, but will likely be extended into the weekend with the subsequent forecast package. Wind gusts observed across the coastal zones today have shown some sites reaching the 40 mph mark, but it has been too scattered to warrant a Wind Advisory. Forecast wind gusts, at this time, appear to be below criteria for any inland headlines, but will continue to monitor the CAMs tonight and discuss with the evening crew on whether one is warranted. Visibility-wise, the most likely locations for any drops below 6 miles will be in the coastal zones, but this will be short lived given the gustier winds Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above normal temperatures through Friday, with a cooldown to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend. - Increased chances for accumulating rainfall along the immediate coast and marine zones this weekend. Very minimal changes from the inherited Extended forecast package. Wet conditions return to the area by the end of the work week and early into the weekend as a mid to upper level low traverses from the Desert SW into the Southern Plains. Moisture will pool ahead of it with PWATs rising to around 1.6-1.7" Friday into Friday night. Rain and thunderstorm chances will start off at around 20-30% over NW portions of the CWA Friday night, before transition E during the day on Saturday as a cold front moves across. Highest rain/storm probabilities will shift into the marine zones by Saturday evening with up to a 60% chance, while remaining at less than a 20% along the immediate coast. The aforementioned front will lead to much drier conditions on its wake with minimum RH values falling into the teens over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains over the weekend into nearly next week. Rain chances will drop to near zero again late weekend as surface high pressure surges in. Winds will remain elevated and gusty at times which will increase our fire weather concerns as the ERC class also rises into the 50-70th percentile across portions of the area by the weekend. Very warm temperatures Friday with highs in the mid 80s to near triple digits will cool into the 60s and 70s Sunday into Monday. Overnight lows will bottom in the low 40s to low 50s Sunday and Monday nights. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Stratus has began spreading out from the eastern terminals this evening. This has led to MVFR ceilings along with some decreased visibilities. Elevated winds are expect to limit overall fog development though patchy fog will remain possible. Lower ceilings will likely reach COT and persist through daybreak along with the eastern terminals with periods of IFR possible. VFR conditions will return by midmorning and persist through the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated with gusts around 20-30 knots over the eastern portions of the region thanks to the 40+ knot LLJ overhead. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-11 ft waves, and 5-8 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. For this reason, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least early Friday morning, but may be extended further into the weekend. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be fresh to strong once again. Rain chances will increase to around 30-60% Saturday night into Sunday, followed by dry conditions behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dry line passages across the Brush Country will drop relative humidity values as low as 10-30% through Thursday. Weak 20-ft winds will keep the fire risk at bay. Rain chances will be low to medium (20-30%) Friday out west, before transitioning eastward on Saturday ahead of a cold front. This boundary will move across the area on Saturday with minimum RH values falling into the teens across portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through early next week. Winds will remain elevated due to a tight pressure gradient, and will become gusty at times. This, in combination with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th to 70th percentile class, could result in periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns mainly out west over the weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 87 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 101 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 71 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
