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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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| #1181057 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear out through the evening - Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible across the entire forecast area High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181056 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 208 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Clouds have hung in longer than expected with plentiful moisture moving on northeast low level flow underneath the subsidence inversion. Adjusted hourly and max highs today to lower just a skoosh in a few places. If we can get a few more breaks, highs today should reach the mid/upper 80s. A few showers may occur along the seabreeze which should be short lived. Clouds should erode later today into this evening. High pressure will be anchored from the northern Gulf to offshore the eastern seaboard. Other than perhaps a shower or two in the southeast Big Bend Tuesday afternoon, the region will remain dry with upper ridging building overhead. Northeast winds will continue overnight into tomorrow with lows falling into the 60s and highs Tuesday reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level riding continues to build over the area with northerly flow prevailing before sliding southeast resulting in easterly flow overhead late Wednesday evening. Drier air coupled with large scale subsidence should result in clear skies and will kick off a warming trend lasting through the long term. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with some mid 90s across our FL counties possible. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridging continues with easterly flow aloft. A series of weak disturbances will ride east along the ridge axis over our area beginning Friday which will serve to bring us back to some low end rain and thunderstorm chances amidst the dry pattern. Chances have also increased due to southerly flow transporting more abundant low-level moisture across the forecast area. With predominately sunny conditions continuing through the long term, the warming trend will also continue. Daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 90s areawide with little relief overnight as overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. With increasing temperatures and dewpoints, heat indices are expected to see an increase as well. Later in the period, apparent temperatures will reach the upper 90s across our FL counties, perhaps reaching the low 100s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Stratocu has lifted in most locations to just over VFR with a few spots remaining MVFR. Clouds have been hanging tough and models continue to scatter out too soon. Kept BKN 030-035 for the next few hours through around 20-21Z then begin to scatter through 00Z. Beyond 00z, a few high clouds should remain while stratocu should be dissipating. A light shower or two could occur along the seabreeze but should remain out of the aerodromes. Winds will continue from the northeast or east. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds are expected to clock to easterly this evening, gradually clocking to south-southeasterly throughout the week around 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will remain around 1 to 2 feet through Wednesday before becoming 1 foot across the board. Each day, slight wind surges over our nearshore waters may occur as the afternoon seabreeze kicks in. Rain and thunderstorms are not expected throughout the workweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally northeasterly transport winds around 10-15 mph with high mixing heights are expected tomorrow with good to excellent dispersions area wide. The highest dispersions will be over the Suwannee Valley Tuesday afternoon. The afternoon sea breeze may cause winds to become more southerly near the coast during the afternoon and evening hours. Transport winds become more southeasterly to southerly Wednesday and Thursday with good dispersions each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 88 67 91 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 68 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 63 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 62 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 87 64 90 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 62 88 65 91 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 71 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181055 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 105 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south Texas. The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies. Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level (110F) won`t be reached. Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico, looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation. The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be limited over the region. Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%). Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk level (3 out of 4). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take breaks, and wear light, loose clothing. Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to burn well to our south. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR ceilings will prevail until this evening as low clouds will again push in from the Gulf. This will create MVFR ceilings across the eastern sites (ALI,CRP,VCT) around 00-03Z and around 06-07z for the western sites. A gradient will develop over the western sites and create slightly gusty winds overnight over LRD and COT. These winds could creep into site ALI for a couple of hours as well. Otherwise, MVFR conditions should transition to VFR tomorrow around 15-18Z across all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181054 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 PM 20.May.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1259 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Patchy fog will be possible once again later this morning, but not expecting it to be quite as widespread or dense with surface conditions being a little bit drier than previous nights. Locations west of I-45 have the best chance of seeing fog development mainly between the timeframe of 5-9AM. Hot and dry conditions persist as we kick off the new work week, but we`ll at least have a southerly breeze to work with. Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure developing in the Texas Panhandle. This`ll tighten the pressure gradient a bit leading to southerly/southeasterly winds around 10 mph throughout the day. We`re still going to see temperatures top out in the low 90s, but 90s with a breeze feels waaay better than the low 90s with no wind. Heat index values will still be in the upper 90s though. That onshore flow will come back to haunt us tomorrow with increasing humidity leading to even higher heat index values. Temperatures during the overnight hours will continue to be well above normal with lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight and solidly in the upper 70s on Tuesday night. We get even breezier on Tuesday as a shortwave trough pushing through the Four Corners region generates another (and slightly stronger) surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies. The deepening of this surface low will lead to southeasterly winds around 15 mph throughout the day. Being in the warm sector of this surface low allows for moisture to increase even further. PW values will be in the 1.3-1.7" range by Tuesday afternoon (75th percentile: ~1.60"). There will also be a 20-25 kt LLJ overhead and some upper level diffluence, but with subsidence from the ridging aloft and a very robust capping inversion aloft around 850mb...don`t expect to see anything more than a higher percentage of cloud cover sticking around through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will still top out in the low 90s Tuesday, but with the added humidity it`ll feel like the triple digits! Heat index values are expected to be in the 99-103F range, so heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 With mid/upper level ridging situated to our south and southwest throughout this period, there are some indications in a couple of the latest model runs that we might have to keep an eye on possible shower/storm development from around midweek and on into the weekend. The latest NBM continues its dry trend with only low rain chances Thursday afternoon/evening, and will stick with this for now. As has been advertised, the main concern will be the heat. High temperatures will be in the 90s, and heat index values will generally be in a 95 to 105 range (and possible getting close to heat advisory values on Monday...a week from today). Little relief will come overnight as morning lows by the end of the week and especially over the weekend will range from the low to mid 70s up north to the upper 70s to around 80 central and south. As exactly stated above and for several days now...heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. 42 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon, courtesty of a Cu field that is leading to BKN skies at GLS and FEW to SCT skies elsewhere. Expect cloud cover to become more BKN to OVC at MVFR levels tonight into Tuesday morning with a few hours of IFR CIGs possible for some locations from 12-14Z Tuesday morning. Winds will be 8-12 kts out of SE through tomorrow morning, with gusts to 20kts possible Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light to mostly moderate onshore winds can be expected through much of this week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times around midweek as the onshore flow increases and seas rise. 42 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Monday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast) MINOR// ------- - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor (forecast) Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 91 75 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 78 85 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181053 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 PM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 201 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon/evening...Breezy northeast flow will continue scattered showers along the NE FL Atlantic Coastal counties with isolated thunderstorm potential over inland NE FL during peak heating into the middle 80s, but overall rainfall and storm threat remains on the low side and will quickly fade around sunset. Tonight...As Northeast flow weakens slowly, this will allow for skies to clear over inland areas with with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Mostly skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will continue to wedge ridging southwestward across most of the region Tuesday, as a very slow moving upper low lingers well offshore. This will continue an onshore flow pattern for Tuesday, and therefore another round of isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. Since the low will nudge further east compared to today, expecting chances for showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder to be confined to areas furthest south and east. Though a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out as far north as coastal southeast GA. High temps will remain below average towards the coast in the low to mid 80s, as inland areas moderate to the mid to upper 80s. Onshore flow drops off overnight Tuesday with lows closer to normal expected, generally low to mid 60s and closer to 70 by the coast. The aforementioned upper low continues to pinwheel further offshore Wednesday and Wednesday Night as high pressure ridging starts to build more aloft in addition to surface ridging, therefore expecting this period to remain dry. Cannot fully rule out an isolated shower to pop up diurnally over inland northeast FL during the afternoon and evening given some lingering onshore flow and low level moisture. However, given the subsidence in place, chances for this will be very low (around 10% or less). Highs start to moderate closer to normal on Wednesday, in the upper 80s to low 90s except for near the coast. MAinly clear and dry into Wednesday Night as well with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Not much change to the pattern for Thursday and into Friday as high pressure ridging persists and high temps continue to moderate towards near to slightly above normal. A shortwave trough moves across the area on Friday Night and Saturday, which returns chances for showers and thunderstorms, though does not look like a significant event at this time. Surface high pressure moves offshore late this weekend as a more zonal pattern aloft also looks to take shape, with a more seabreeze shower/t`storm type of pattern likely. Temps are expected to remain slightly above normal for the start of Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise, otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to introduce with this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Brisk northeasterly flow continues through this evening as high pressure ridging continues to build in. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through 8 PM. This flow regime will weaken Tuesday, with persistent high pressure ridging persisting through mid to late week thereafter. Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rip currents expected the rest of Today and into Tuesday as gusty onshore flow continues through tonight and slowly subsides on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 80 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 83 67 87 / 0 20 0 10 SGJ 67 83 70 85 / 10 30 0 10 GNV 62 86 65 90 / 0 30 0 10 OCF 63 88 67 91 / 0 30 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1181052 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 PM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, daytime high temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 105 and 110 degrees today, with isolated spots reaching 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for today, but will instead cover the heat threat with a Special Weather Statement. However, for Tuesday, a Heat Advisory may very well be needed, with heat indices progged to max out at 111 to 112 degrees across a more widespread area. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for now, and address the issue in about 24 hours (if not less than that by a successive shift) after Monday highs are tabled and new model guidance is available. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A broad 500 mb ridge centered over Mexico extending into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady low-level southeasterly to southerly flow will result in continued humid conditions across the area. Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend as the mid to upper level ridge continues to build. High temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s along the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69E/US 77 corridor by Friday. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures ranging from upper 90s along the beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. Overnight temperatures will remain warm with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The "feels like" temperatures each night will remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR will prevail through this evening across the region, with intermittent periods of reduced visibility (around 5-6SM) due to haze. MVFR ceilings will develop once again after 03Z and persist through around 15-16Z Tuesday. Otherwise, expect south to southeast winds around 10-15 knots today and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today through Tuesday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An initially modest pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will strengthen slightly during the period, with high pressure generally in control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas during the period, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed on Tuesday, especially for the Laguna Madre. Tuesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Wednesday through the holiday weekend due to increased winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181051 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 PM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 147 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cool air advection (between building ridging inland and troughing well offshore) is the name of the game across the area as we move toward midday, with widespread strato-cu developing at the top of BL in the modified-maritime airmass. Strengthening upper subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Mainly VFR prevails this afternoon, though some locations, like KCHS, continue to experience some MVFR cigs at least occasionally. Increased mixing mid afternoon will continue to scatter/raise ceilings, with VFR prevailing late afternoon through the evening. Late tonight, clear skies and light to calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, and shallow/light fog could develop, with greatest chances for inland southeast South Carolina through the pre-dawn hours. Have included a few hours of MVFR fog at KCHS. Meanwhile, KJZI is less likely to fully decouple and KSAV is further removed from the better moisture pooling, with VFR prevailing at both of these sites. Mixing returns widespread VFR shortly after sunrise Tuesday with mainly light northeast winds persisting. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Charleston and Colleton County coastlines around this time of this evening`s high tide (7 PM). The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides again Tuesday and Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1181050 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 135 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers present on KMLB radar early this afternoon have led to VCSH inclusion for areas from MCO northward into mid-afternoon. Otherwise, areas are expected to remain mostly dry today. To the south, higher confidence in showers and storms this afternoon, with VCTS included for the Treasure Coast, as the sea breeze moves inland. A TEMPO group has been included for SUA, which has the highest chance for seeing any reductions due to convection. Any convection is expected to diminish into late evening. Winds have already veered northeasterly behind the sea breeze for coastal terminals from around TIX southward. The sea breeze is forecast to move inland into this afternoon, with gusts up to 25kts possible. Winds will diminish after sunset and back northerly once again. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture (PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from the Cape southward and moving inland. Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will be the main threats. N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the interior, south of Orlando. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around 15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 84 70 85 / 10 30 0 10 MCO 70 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10 MLB 72 85 72 86 / 20 30 10 10 VRB 70 87 71 88 / 20 30 10 20 LEE 68 88 71 91 / 10 40 0 10 SFB 68 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10 ORL 71 88 71 90 / 10 40 0 10 FPR 69 87 70 87 / 20 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181049 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 PM 20.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 135 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today is the cornerstone of a pattern change towards more mild conditions though clouds and cool temperatures will still hang across the Cape. Much milder conditions Tuesday with heat peaking on Wednesday. Frontal passage Thursday, with increased thunderstorm chances, will usher in more seasonable temperatures for the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 PM Update... * Plenty of sunshine this afternoon away from the Cape/Islands * Highs 60s immediate coast, 70s inland, near 80 CT River Valley Clouds have scoured out across most locations northwest of I-95 as of early this afternoon allowing for plenty of sunshine. Still some low clouds across southeast of I-95 but expect partial sunshine to emerge in this region shortly...with perhaps the exception of the Cape and Islands where low clouds may hang tough. Light onshore flow will hold highs in the upper 50s/60s on the immediate coast, but 70s just a bit further inland, and near 80 in the lower CT River Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Patchy fog development is possible again tonight though developing SW winds around 5-10kt, and dewpoint depressions around 4F should preclude widespread fog across the interior. With that said, the same mechanism of SW flow should encourage some fog/reduced vsbys along the South Coast and Islands where both temps and dewpoints hover around 50F and SSTs are in the low to mid 50s. With surface high still in place and mid level ridge growing stronger, guidance is still quite poor in diagnosing cloud cover for Tuesday, with several CAMs, like the HRRR, showing a mostly cloudy day. Not feeling particularly keen on the "cloudy all day" solutions with PWATs falling to as low as 0.7" and low RH above the mixed layer, but early morning fog/stratus, particularly along the south coast, may take a few hours to burn off. Decent boundary layer mixing with 850mb temperatures approaching 16C will support highs well into the 80s across much of the interior, though onshore flow across the south coast will keep temps much cooler there, in the 60s to perhaps 70s. Given SW flow, Boston MAY see their first 80F reading of the season, and while it`s possible the ASOS may not hit 80F, the western suburbs of the city have a high likelihood of doing so. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: * Peak of the midweek very warm weather is Wednesday - 80s highs with a few locations in the CT and Merrimack Valleys seeing a few 90 degree readings. Tolerable humidity levels. * Cold front Thursday afternoon to early evening brings a reprieve to the warmth but also could fuel scattered t-storms. * Drier and with cooler, more seasonable temperatures Friday into the Memorial Day Weekend. Details: Still looking at Wednesday as the warmest day of the anticipated midweek spell of very warm temperatures reminiscent of summer. 850 mb temps rising into the +14 to +16C range along with full mixing and southwest breezes should promote these very warm temperatures. NBM probs continue to show moderate to high (60 to 90 percent) probs of temps reaching 90+ degrees in the CT and Merrimack Valleys, with lower (no greater than 30%) probs of 90+ high temps in central MA, northeast CT and portions of Metrowest. These are a bit higher than the prior 13z NBM cycle. The one thing that is a little peculiar in the NWP is that modeled dewpoints were shown to be in the lower to mid 60s across a good majority of the guidance; I don`t think values this high are necessarily realistic given the well mixed PBL and adiabatic downsloping that should be taking place per model soundings. That`s also a concern/source of uncertainty as we move into Thursday as well. Advertised highs upper 80s to low 90s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys - although those could be somewhat conservative - and the mid 80s for most of northern RI, central and eastern MA. Cooler readings near the south coast (upper 60s-mid 70s) where SW flow will allow for a bit of a maritime breeze. Should be a pretty mild Wednesday evening too, mid 50s to lower 60s, but did note some of the guidance showing weakening convection moving in from eastern NY into our far western counties in MA later in the overnight. Left a slight chance PoP mention in the forecast for now for the eastern Berkshires but we`ll have to see if this materializes in subsequent guidance. A cold front then trudges eastward through Southern New England on Thursday. It seems as though in the 00z guidance that the front is about 6 hours slower than prior model cycles; that may allow for another very warm day with a slower timing, but also could allow for slightly more convective instability to help spark showers/t-storms along the front, particularly near and west of I-95. Similar to Wednesday, models are now forecasting dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s although those seem a bit high. If we can see dewpoints push into the lower 60s, we could see CAPE values around 800-1500 J/kg accompanied by deep-layer southwesterly shear magnitudes around 35 kt (stronger flow mainly to our north). This is really on the borderline for storms becoming strong to severe and doesn`t really scream "severe storms", but is something we`ll be needing to monitor in the coming days. Kept highs in the upper 60s/around 70 near the south coast, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further inland. For Friday, the cold front`s southeastward passage further offshore could be delayed a bit as the front`s orientation becomes nearly parallel to the 700-300 mb flow, which could keep clouds and showers around the south coast for part of the day. However high pressure is progged to ridge into much of New England, with ridging continuing into a good part of the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures Friday into the weekend trend cooler and more seasonable than midweek, with highs in the 70s (60s near the coast). Thus so far, weather conditions for Memorial Day Weekend seem favorable. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon...High Confidence. Low clouds have scoured out to the northwest of I-95 yielding VFR conditions early this afternoon. Still MVFR ceiling southeast of I-95...but probably see temporary improvement at least away from the Cape and Islands over the next few hours. Light E winds generally becoming more SE-S in many spots toward evening. Tonight...High Confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Low end MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions will ovespreads area near the Springfield...to Worcester to Beverly corridor...but may struggle to get too far northwest of that region. The greatest risk for LIFR conditions will be across RI/SE MA where low clouds arrive earlier and there also will be fog developing...which may become locally dense. Calm/light S winds. Tuesday...High Confidence. Low clouds and fog patches should burn off Tuesday morning. This process will probably be faster than today...given more of a S-SW winds 10-15 knots. May also see a few hours of localized sea breezes along the very immediate coast...but this should be overcome during the afternoon as gradient strengthens. Tuesday night...Moderate Confidence. Low clouds and fog patches will probably redevelop Tue night...but probably only impact areas south of I-90 with the best chance across RI/SE MA. Surface winds out of the SW at 5-15 knots will probably keep the low clouds/fog from becoming as extensive and spreading as far north as tonight. KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends but lower confidence in timing. Thinking low clouds with low end MVFR to IFR conditions return after 02z or so tonight and burn off by mid-morning Tue. KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends but lower confidence in timing. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... High confidence Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...high confidence. Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times. Tuesday... high confidence AM fog will burn off to pleasant boating conditions. SW winds with seas less than 5 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1181048 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 PM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... High pressure nosing southeastward across the inland Carolinas is resulting in northeast flow and slightly below normal temps for today. Have adjusted the sky forecast to account for a swath of stratus across northeast SC this morning, which is in the process of scattering out as it makes its way to the southwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure oriented NW-SW across the NC Piedmont and upstate of SC will result in enhanced NE flow across the area the remainder of the day. The gradient will gradually weaken through the evening, and the high will shift eastward very slowly. Therefore winds will ease up overnight, however a NE or ENE trajectory will persist through the TAF period. Clouds will vary between broken and scattered through early evening before clearing out, but will remain VFR. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181047 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 PM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Foggy conditions in the piedmont are quickly improving with latest obs showing visibilities over a mile. Fog continues to scour out and should be gone within the next hour or so. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening, but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be light and easterly tomorrow. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181046 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:30 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 126 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area, with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially producing gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat index values at or below 100 degrees. The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 88 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 West Kendall 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 40 50 Opa-Locka 75 89 75 90 / 30 50 40 50 Homestead 75 89 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 75 87 76 86 / 30 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 40 50 Pembroke Pines 75 91 76 91 / 30 40 40 50 West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 30 40 40 40 Boca Raton 74 88 75 88 / 30 40 40 50 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181043 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1216 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This will effectively suppress cloud development to below the inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period. Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall, have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum. However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile, and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the short term with high pressure in place over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware, this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low 100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also, kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting. Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend. Something to check back on. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Clear skies and light winds through the period will lead to no appreciable impacts for most terminals. Will have a similar setup as this morning on tomorrow morning with a shallow inversion aiding in light fog and low cloud development. A few terminals such as KMCB, KBTR, and KASD may see MVFR visibilities from the light fog. Otherwise, VFR will dominate the forecast. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is on tap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 72 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181042 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Increased cloud cover as low stratus continues moving westward. Models arent handling this very well but stratus should hold the next few hours before getting more breaks in the overcast. So far it hasn`t had much effect on temperatures but may need an update depending on how the clouds evolve and temperatures respond. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Stratocu has lifted in most locations to just over VFR with a few spots remaining MVFR. Clouds have been hanging tough and models continue to scatter out too soon. Kept BKN 030-035 for the next few hours through around 20-21Z then begin to scatter through 00Z. Beyond 00z, a few high clouds should remain while stratocu should be dissipating. A light shower or two could occur along the seabreeze but should remain out of the aerodromes. Winds will continue from the northeast or east. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 10 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181041 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1247 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surge of North to Northeast winds behind cool frontal passage along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas slightly stronger than expected and local buoys already have sustained winds close to 20 knots and seas already at 5-6 feet, so have posted Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters and have posted High Rip Current Risk as well ending this evening as the NE Flow slowly fades tonight. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track with scattered showers along the NE FL coastal counties which are expected to spread inland through the afternoon hours to the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF vicinity. A slight chance of a thunderstorm to pop-up with this activity, but storm chances remain around 10% or less and severe weather is not expected. Max temps cooler than over the weekend with highs in the lower 80s near the coast/I-95 corridor and into the middle 80s over inland areas as the current mostly cloudy skies become partly sunny by the mid-late afternoon. Breezy coastal conditions will continue today at 15-20G25-30 mph with lesser NE winds inland at 10-15G20 mph at times. Rainfall chances end at sunset over inland areas, with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Clearing skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise, otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to introduce with this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 78 69 79 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 81 64 83 67 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 81 67 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 84 62 87 64 / 40 0 40 0 OCF 87 63 89 67 / 30 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1181039 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 20.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1141 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1118 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 The main stories this morning are the training thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Before dawn the Lower Matecumbe area was the first focus, then Vaca Key near and after dawn, and now the Lower Keys. The profile sampled by the 12Z was juiced (PW ~2"), contained moderate ML instability and minimal inhibition, and EFF deep layer shear roughly oriented (WSW-ENE) parallel to a weak convergence zone, hence the heavy rainfall. Training cells have steadily back built and new updrafts have been favored on both the up and down shear vectors. The highest radar derived totals so far are 5 to 10", with some believable gauges approaching 7". Until we can get the northwest steering flow in here later this afternoon, likely more of the same for those areas that can recharge. When it rains, it pours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1118 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Scattered thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and small hail will persist across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys into the afternoon. By later this afternoon or this evening, thunderstorms will decrease in coverage as breezes veer to the northwest and increase. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 KBYX radar shows convection ongoing across the Middle and Lower Keys. This activity is being driven by an outflow boundary propagating slowly to the west. This activity will continue to lower CIGs to MVFR conditions with IFR possible. LIFR and IFR conditions are possible for VIS as thunderstorms continue to impact the area, especially MTH. For now, EYW remains quiet but we are watching thunderstorms off to the east that may backbuild towards the terminal over the next couple hours. Winds will be influenced by the convective environment with the strongest gusts occurring in and around thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... So far today, Marathon has recorded 5.95 inches as of the 953 am observation. The previous record for the date was 1.68 inches set back in 1991. Rainfall records for MTH date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 79 89 79 / 60 30 30 30 Marathon 89 80 89 80 / 60 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181038 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1110 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cool air advection (between building ridging inland and troughing well offshore) is the name of the game across the area as we move toward midday, with widespread strato-cu developing at the top of BL in the modified-maritime airmass. Strengthening upper subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Scattered MVFR ceilings have emerged this morning with strato-cu across much of the area at the top of the cooler boundary later. While improved mixing this afternoon is likely to scatter clouds somewhat, there is potential for at least occasional MVFR cigs at CHS, JZI, and SAV through early afternoon, represented with TEMPO groups in the updated TAFs. VFR conditions prevail again by mid-afternoon with mainly SCT cu based around 3-4 kft persisting. Gusty NE winds developing late morning will continue through the afternoon, with 15-20 kt gusts expected. Turning clear this evening with diminishing winds. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Charleston and Colleton County coastlines around this time of this evening`s high tide (7 PM). The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides again Tuesday and Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1181037 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1031 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 1015 AM Monday... Low-level clouds are quickly building back in thanks to diurnal heating of a residually-moist low-level airmass, and steepening low- level lapse rates. Temps initially warmed quicker than forecast, but should slow some thanks to the clouds building back in. I adjusted temps and clouds to better match all of the above, but otherwise, the spirit of the forecast is unchanged. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/... As of 700 AM Monday...IFR stratus impacting terminals east of hwy 17. This cloud cover will expand further south and west through the morning, but is expected to remain away from PGV, ISO, and OAJ. EWN continues to be hit or miss, with a sharp gradient between VFR and IFR, and the cloud deck forecasted to come to a halt in the vicinity of EWN. A slightly more elevated MVFR deck is impacting far western portions of the CWA, currently impacting PGV as it migrates further west and breaks up. On and off MVFR conditions are possible for PGV, ISO, OAJ through the morning, but chances remain fairly low as the main cloud deck has moved further west. Afternoon remains VFR for TAF terminals, with sub-VFR conditions still continuing for OBX. NE winds gust to near 20mph inland, 25-30mph for OBX today. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR/LIFR visibilities mainly along and west of hwy 17. In addition to fog, another round of low stratus moves in Monday night/Tuesday morning from the NW impacting areas mainly east of 17. LONG TERM /Today through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1015 AM Monday... Coastal obs along the Outer Banks continue to show reduced visibilities of around 5 miles. Webcams in the area suggest visibilities may be even lower. I`ve adjusted the forecast to reflect lower visibilities hanging around for longer into the morning hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was considered, but based on recent obs and short-term guidance, it appears the fog risk will be short-lived. We`ll continue to monitor trends in case this risk were to worsen and/or last longer into the day. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181036 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture (PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from the Cape southward and moving inland. Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will be the main threats. N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the interior, south of Orlando. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around 15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor. Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1- 1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C), and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth. While strong storm development could be limited with some uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie counties where surface instability will be maximized. Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic, extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with highs forecast near 90 degrees. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast) to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning, primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here. && .MARINE... Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward trend each following day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0 MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0 MLB 87 73 85 72 / 20 10 50 10 VRB 89 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 10 LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0 SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0 ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0 FPR 90 69 87 70 / 30 20 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181035 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1012 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A diffuse boundary sits across South Florida this morning as showers and thunderstorms continue to fire off over the Florida Keys and the local Atlantic waters. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms could increase over our area later this afternoon along sea breeze boundary collisions; a few of these thunderstorms could be strong in nature, with gusty winds and small hail, but overall chances for severe weather are lower than yesterday given weaker dynamic support. With the boundary over the area, winds over the northern portion of the CWA have become WNW, while southernmost portions of the region experience WSW flow. This has allowed for somewhat milder temperatures across the area this morning (as compared to the last few days), with most sites experiencing temperatures in the mid- upper 80s and heat indices below 95 F. Although conditions will continue to warm up during the day, we do not expect to hit heat advisory criteria today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday. Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft. Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area). The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 18-19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 75 / 50 30 50 50 West Kendall 94 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 89 75 / 50 30 50 40 Homestead 94 75 89 75 / 30 30 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 75 87 76 / 60 30 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 74 87 75 / 60 40 40 40 Pembroke Pines 94 75 91 76 / 50 30 40 40 West Palm Beach 92 73 87 73 / 40 30 40 40 Boca Raton 92 74 88 75 / 50 30 40 40 Naples 90 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181034 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1012 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Increased cloud cover as low stratus continues moving westward. Models arent handling this very well but stratus should hold the next few hours before getting more breaks in the overcast. So far it hasn`t had much effect on temperatures but may need an update depending on how the clouds evolve and temperatures respond. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast will affect VLD, ABY, and TLH with a few hours of MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings are expected to scatter and become VFR later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181033 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1003 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Foggy conditions in the piedmont are quickly improving with latest obs showing visibilities over a mile. Fog continues to scour out and should be gone within the next hour or so. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds continues to affect the coastal terminals this morning w/ IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs. Further inland, rather widespread fog is noted. As of 11z, it is most widespread W of RIC and in the Piedmont. Expect RIC to fluctuate some this morning w/ occasional decreases in VSBY to IFR or LIFR. The fog should clear shortly near or just before 9 AM/13z. IFR or MVFR CIGs continue at the coast through at least mid- morning. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast through most of today. For tonight, additional low stratus or fog is expected w/ widespread flight restrictions to IFR- LIFR. Winds become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Winds turn light tonight. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181031 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 913 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surge of North to Northeast winds behind cool frontal passage along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas slightly stronger than expected and local buoys already have sustained winds close to 20 knots and seas already at 5-6 feet, so have posted Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters and have posted High Rip Current Risk as well ending this evening as the NE Flow slowly fades tonight. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track with scattered showers along the NE FL coastal counties which are expected to spread inland through the afternoon hours to the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF vicinity. A slight chance of a thunderstorm to pop-up with this activity, but storm chances remain around 10% or less and severe weather is not expected. Max temps cooler than over the weekend with highs in the lower 80s near the coast/I-95 corridor and into the middle 80s over inland areas as the current mostly cloudy skies become partly sunny by the mid-late afternoon. Breezy coastal conditions will continue today at 15-20G25-30 mph with lesser NE winds inland at 10-15G20 mph at times. Rainfall chances end at sunset over inland areas, with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Clearing skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings will begin to lift through 14Z inland, then along the coast by 18Z. High pressure builds to the north as the low moves slowly away to the east northeast through tonight. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will turn northeasterly and become breezy later this morning as the high builds down the east coast 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area while mainly dry at SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX and CRG by 18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 61 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 78 69 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 81 64 83 67 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 80 68 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 84 62 86 64 / 40 0 40 0 OCF 87 63 87 67 / 30 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1181030 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 912 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... High pressure nosing southeastward across the inland Carolinas is resulting in northeast flow and slightly below normal temps for today. Have adjusted the sky forecast to account for a swath of stratus across northeast SC this morning, which is in the process of scattering out as it makes its way to the southwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR for the 12Z TAF period, although some low clouds/fog are possible this morning, mainly through around daybreak, and again late tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181029 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 PM 20.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 907 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today is the cornerstone of a pattern change towards more mild conditions though clouds and cool temperatures will still hang across the Cape. Much milder conditions Tuesday with heat peaking on Wednesday. Frontal passage Thursday, with increased thunderstorm chances, will usher in more seasonable temperatures for the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 905 AM Update... * Partial sunshine emerges today with significantly warmer temps * Highs 60s immediate coast, 70s inland, near 80 CT River Valley Previous forecast remains on track with a ridge of high pressure in control. Visible satellite imagery indicates the low clouds were beginning to develop breaks in them as of mid morning. This trend should continue with shallow nature of the moisture in place combined with the strong May sun angle. Therefore...expect partial sunshine to emerge in most locations by afternoon. 850T rising to between +11C/+12C should yield a much warmer afternoon in most locations that what we saw this weekend. Light onshore flow will hold highs in the 60s on the immediate coast, but 70s just a bit further inland, and near 80 in the lower CT River Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Patchy fog development is possible again tonight though developing SW winds around 5-10kt, and dewpoint depressions around 4F should preclude widespread fog across the interior. With that said, the same mechanism of SW flow should encourage some fog/reduced vsbys along the South Coast and Islands where both temps and dewpoints hover around 50F and SSTs are in the low to mid 50s. With surface high still in place and mid level ridge growing stronger, guidance is still quite poor in diagnosing cloud cover for Tuesday, with several CAMs, like the HRRR, showing a mostly cloudy day. Not feeling particularly keen on the "cloudy all day" solutions with PWATs falling to as low as 0.7" and low RH above the mixed layer, but early morning fog/stratus, particularly along the south coast, may take a few hours to burn off. Decent boundary layer mixing with 850mb temperatures approaching 16C will support highs well into the 80s across much of the interior, though onshore flow across the south coast will keep temps much cooler there, in the 60s to perhaps 70s. Given SW flow, Boston MAY see their first 80F reading of the season, and while it`s possible the ASOS may not hit 80F, the western suburbs of the city have a high likelihood of doing so. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: * Peak of the midweek very warm weather is Wednesday - 80s highs with a few locations in the CT and Merrimack Valleys seeing a few 90 degree readings. Tolerable humidity levels. * Cold front Thursday afternoon to early evening brings a reprieve to the warmth but also could fuel scattered t-storms. * Drier and with cooler, more seasonable temperatures Friday into the Memorial Day Weekend. Details: Still looking at Wednesday as the warmest day of the anticipated midweek spell of very warm temperatures reminiscent of summer. 850 mb temps rising into the +14 to +16C range along with full mixing and southwest breezes should promote these very warm temperatures. NBM probs continue to show moderate to high (60 to 90 percent) probs of temps reaching 90+ degrees in the CT and Merrimack Valleys, with lower (no greater than 30%) probs of 90+ high temps in central MA, northeast CT and portions of Metrowest. These are a bit higher than the prior 13z NBM cycle. The one thing that is a little peculiar in the NWP is that modeled dewpoints were shown to be in the lower to mid 60s across a good majority of the guidance; I don`t think values this high are necessarily realistic given the well mixed PBL and adiabatic downsloping that should be taking place per model soundings. That`s also a concern/source of uncertainty as we move into Thursday as well. Advertised highs upper 80s to low 90s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys - although those could be somewhat conservative - and the mid 80s for most of northern RI, central and eastern MA. Cooler readings near the south coast (upper 60s-mid 70s) where SW flow will allow for a bit of a maritime breeze. Should be a pretty mild Wednesday evening too, mid 50s to lower 60s, but did note some of the guidance showing weakening convection moving in from eastern NY into our far western counties in MA later in the overnight. Left a slight chance PoP mention in the forecast for now for the eastern Berkshires but we`ll have to see if this materializes in subsequent guidance. A cold front then trudges eastward through Southern New England on Thursday. It seems as though in the 00z guidance that the front is about 6 hours slower than prior model cycles; that may allow for another very warm day with a slower timing, but also could allow for slightly more convective instability to help spark showers/t-storms along the front, particularly near and west of I-95. Similar to Wednesday, models are now forecasting dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s although those seem a bit high. If we can see dewpoints push into the lower 60s, we could see CAPE values around 800-1500 J/kg accompanied by deep-layer southwesterly shear magnitudes around 35 kt (stronger flow mainly to our north). This is really on the borderline for storms becoming strong to severe and doesn`t really scream "severe storms", but is something we`ll be needing to monitor in the coming days. Kept highs in the upper 60s/around 70 near the south coast, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further inland. For Friday, the cold front`s southeastward passage further offshore could be delayed a bit as the front`s orientation becomes nearly parallel to the 700-300 mb flow, which could keep clouds and showers around the south coast for part of the day. However high pressure is progged to ridge into much of New England, with ridging continuing into a good part of the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures Friday into the weekend trend cooler and more seasonable than midweek, with highs in the 70s (60s near the coast). Thus so far, weather conditions for Memorial Day Weekend seem favorable. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on the timing. Initially, a mix of MVFR to LIFR from stratus ceilings, with lowest ceilings further east and south one goes. Stratus should start to burn off to VFR by ~14-16z for the western and central airports, and around ~16-18z for BED, BOS and PVD. It may take until mid afternoon before scattering out to VFR over the Cape and Islands. One potential fly in the ointment that will need to be monitored is if stratus returns back landward in coastal areas as winds shift from NE to E/ESE - it seems unlikely as the flow is light but is a possible outcome. Tonight: Moderate confidence. IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog. Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF/trends though some uncertainty on the timing of eroding stratus. MVFR should trend to VFR by ~16-18z with winds becoming E by this afternoon. Low clouds may return tonight after 03z as winds shift to light southeast. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF/trends, though some uncertainty on the timing of eroding stratus. MVFR bases erode to VFR by ~13-15z. Light NE winds shift to S around 4-6 kt this afternoon. Could see patchy fog develop tonight but this isn`t set in stone. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... High confidence Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...high confidence. Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times. Tuesday... high confidence AM fog will burn off to pleasant boating conditions. SW winds with seas less than 5 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1181028 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 PM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 What`s left of the cool front was drifting south into central Florida early this morning with some cumulus clouds along and ahead of it. Low stratus has moved southwest into the northern Nature Coast behind the boundary, but this should lift and dissipate in the next few hours. For the rest of the day west to northwest low level flow will increase across most of the region, with the exception being across the northern Nature Coast where a more north to northeast flow will persist. There could be enough moisture for a few showers this afternoon along this wind shift across the Nature Coast, and further south over the interior, otherwise mostly sunny skies are anticipated. Overall forecast looks on track with no updates needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR expected through period with increasing west to northwest winds up to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon. Winds shift to northeast during this evening and then diminish overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Although much of the area remained rain free on Sunday, limited rain chances are expected to continue today and Tuesday with lingering moisture likely to produce a few showers and storms during the afternoon and evening primarily over the interior as a weak surface boundary remains draped across the peninsula while a trough aloft extends SW across the state from the W Atlantic. Guidance continues to indicate meager rain chances for W FL today with PoPs generally 20-30 percent. With the setup continuing to favor interior convection and PWATs trending down toward the 1-1.3 inch range across most of the area today through early Tuesday, lower PoPs seem likely with best chances along the interior. As the trough aloft begins to shift east into the Atlantic on Tuesday, surface ridging along the E Seaboard will begin gradually building into the state with low-level NE winds overspreading the area and advecting Atlantic moisture across the state leading to a slight uptick in PoPs Tuesday afternoon with highest chances still focused across the interior but spreading further across W FL. By Wednesday upper ridging looks to build NE across the state from the SW Gulf while the surface ridge remains in place, leading to mainly dry conditions for the majority of the area as subsidence limits moisture depth and rain chances, mainly to 20 percent or less for southern interior and SWFL locations. Shortwaves and attendant surface low pressure systems trekking across the OH/TN Valleys over the latter half of the week will weaken the ridging aloft while the surface ridge will shift E into the Atlantic in response, causing winds to shift to SE-S locally late week into the weekend with gradually increasing moisture and an increase in rain chances over the weekend into early next week. Temps generally within a few degrees of average over the early part of the week before warming to above normal over the latter half of the week with the ridging over the area. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast today and Monday with coastal areas in the lower to mid 80s, then warming into the lower to mid 90s mid week and beyond away from the coast with immediate coastal areas in the mid to upper 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains over the waters with W-NW winds today increasing along the immediate coast during the afternoon with sea breeze enhancement. High pressure then builds along the E Seaboard and over the waters Tuesday into late week favoring NE to E winds developing over the waters, turning onshore with the sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late week into the weekend allowing winds to become more S-SE over the weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains draped across the state with winds generally NW-N today. High pressure builds into the state Tuesday into late week favoring NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic into the weekend allowing winds to shift out of the SE-S. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 91 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 91 70 90 71 / 30 10 40 0 SRQ 90 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 65 91 66 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 88 76 90 77 / 10 10 20 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1181026 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 743 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No substantial changes made with the early morning update. Previous discussion... Pronounced short-wave has progressed well out of the Georgia outer waters along with the bulk of the remaining convection, although isolated showers along the western periphery of the circulation continue to rotate down through the coastal waters and skirting the Georgia coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover also along the northern and western edge of the wave continues to skirt the coastal areas down through southeast Georgia, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from the north. Short-wave trough axis will move further away from the coast today replaced with sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure folding into the Atlantic Coast. Today: Per radar trends and high-resolution guidance, spotty shower activity is looking to skirt the southeast Georgia Coast - mainly around Altamaha - through the early morning hours. Thus we plan to hold on to isolated pops down that way for just a bit longer. Cloud cover and the last bit of shower activity will slowly pull away from the southeast coast over the next several hours with drier air and N-S clearing skies taking shape this morning. Forecast soundings do suggest the development of "heating of the day" Cu later in the morning and through the afternoon and could lead to period of partly sunny conditions. Cloud cover has been nudged up accordingly. Otherwise, a cooler and certainly less humid day is on tap. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR conditions will persist through today but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of the day" Cumulus developing late morning and persisting through the afternoon. A touch of gustiness is anticipated later this morning and through the afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible. Turning clear this evening with diminishing winds. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides tonight through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1181025 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning, primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor. Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1- 1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C), and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth. While strong storm development could be limited with some uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie counties where surface instability will be maximized. Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic, extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with highs forecast near 90 degrees. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast) to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward trend each following day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0 MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0 MLB 87 73 85 72 / 30 10 50 10 VRB 89 71 87 71 / 40 20 50 10 LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0 SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0 ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0 FPR 90 69 87 70 / 50 20 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181024 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of some localized patchy fog late tonight across portions of southeast Mississippi. Calm or light and variable winds this morning become easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots today. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as deep ridging remains across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up today and Tuesday. Skies should be mostly clear at night and partly cloudy during the day. Primarily light easterly winds today and tonight becoming southeasterly on Tuesday. Patchy fog is expected to develop across Stone, George, Perry and southwest Greene counties late tonight. Temperatures will remain 1-5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs today and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows ranging from 62 to 66 degrees interior areas and from 67 to 72 degrees close to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today becomes Low on Tuesday. /22 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The forecast remains dry and warm through at least Thursday. Ridging aloft continues to nose into the region from the southwestern Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten into the Gulf Thursday into the weekend as a series of shortwaves skirt along the periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf through at least Friday and potentially into the early part of the weekend. A weak front associated with the first shortwave will attempt to drift into the MidSouth, but likely won`t make it near our region given the influence of deep layer ridging. The surface high`s grasp over the local area should keep the bulk of the showers and storms further to our north on Friday. We maintained the 15-25% POPs on Friday afternoon, but our confidence in these POPs is rather low at this time given the nearby ridging. The best chance for showers and storms over the weekend will be generally north of the Highway 84 corridor in the afternoon hours and early evening hours. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with the RCMOS probabilities also remaining LOW through the weekend. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 68 87 67 86 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 87 70 86 70 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 72 83 71 83 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 88 63 89 63 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 89 65 90 65 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 87 63 89 64 89 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 89 65 89 63 89 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181023 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 734 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday. Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft. Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area). The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 18-19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 75 / 50 30 50 50 West Kendall 94 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 89 75 / 50 30 50 40 Homestead 94 75 89 75 / 30 30 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 75 87 76 / 60 30 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 74 87 75 / 60 40 40 40 Pembroke Pines 94 75 91 76 / 50 30 40 40 West Palm Beach 92 73 87 73 / 40 30 40 40 Boca Raton 92 74 88 75 / 50 30 40 40 Naples 90 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181022 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 625 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This will effectively suppress cloud development to below the inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period. Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall, have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum. However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile, and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the short term with high pressure in place over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware, this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low 100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also, kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting. Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend. Something to check back on. KLG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A very shallow ground level inversion has allowed for patchy dense fog and low ceilings to form at ASD, HUM, and GPT over the past couple of hours. Given the shallow nature of the inversion, the fog and low stratus will quickly burn off between 13z and 14z, and return to prevailing VFR conditions at all of the terminals is expected after 14z. Another round of fog and low stratus may develop later tonight, but overall probabilities are too low to mention fog in the forecast except at MCB where a period of IFR conditions are forecast to develop after 11z tomorrow. PG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don`t see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight. These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening. Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions should improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren`t expected to provide any significant restrictions either. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is on tap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 68 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 90 72 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 87 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181021 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 400 AM Monday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 700 AM Monday...IFR stratus impacting terminals east of hwy 17. This cloud cover will expand further south and west through the morning, but is expected to remain away from PGV, ISO, and OAJ. EWN continues to be hit or miss, with a sharp gradient between VFR and IFR, and the cloud deck forecasted to come to a halt in the vicinity of EWN. A slightly more elevated MVFR deck is impacting far western portions of the CWA, currently impacting PGV as it migrates further west and breaks up. On and off MVFR conditions are possible for PGV, ISO, OAJ through the morning, but chances remain fairly low as the main cloud deck has moved further west. Afternoon remains VFR for TAF terminals, with sub-VFR conditions still continuing for OBX. NE winds gust to near 20mph inland, 25-30mph for OBX today. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR/LIFR visibilities mainly along and west of hwy 17. In addition to fog, another round of low stratus moves in Monday night/Tuesday morning from the NW impacting areas mainly east of 17. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 415 AM Monday...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181020 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south Texas. The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies. Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level (110F) won`t be reached. Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico, looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation. The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be limited over the region. Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%). Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk level (3 out of 4). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take breaks, and wear light, loose clothing. Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to burn well to our south. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 As has happened the last several nights, low clouds and patchy fog rolls in off of the Gulf, and then hangs out over the region into morning. Once the sun is up, the fog burns off and we are backto VFR conditions until...around 03z/Wed the MVFR CIGs roll back into the region and stay overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181018 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 619 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, daytime high temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 105 and 110 degrees today, with isolated spots reaching 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for today, but will instead cover the heat threat with a Special Weather Statement. However, for Tuesday, a Heat Advisory may very well be needed, with heat indices progged to max out at 111 to 112 degrees across a more widespread area. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for now, and address the issue in about 24 hours (if not less than that by a successive shift) after Monday highs are tabled and new model guidance is available. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A broad 500 mb ridge centered over Mexico extending into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady low-level southeasterly to southerly flow will result in continued humid conditions across the area. Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend as the mid to upper level ridge continues to build. High temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s along the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69E/US 77 corridor by Friday. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures ranging from upper 90s along the beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. Overnight temperatures will remain warm with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The "feels like" temperatures each night will remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The aerodromes will continue to experience MVFR to VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today through Tuesday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An initially modest pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will strengthen slightly during the period, with high pressure generally in control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas during the period, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed on Tuesday, especially for the Laguna Madre. Tuesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Wednesday through the holiday weekend due to increased winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1181016 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 703 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today is the cornerstone of a pattern change towards more mild conditions though clouds and cool temperatures will still hang across the Cape. Much milder conditions Tuesday with heat peaking on Wednesday. Frontal passage Thursday, with increased thunderstorm chances, will usher in more seasonable temperatures for the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 645 AM Update: Forecast challenge today continues to be timing the eventual erosion/scattering out of the existing stratus layer which blankets much of Southern New England (excluding northwest MA). Satellite data this morning is already showing some patchy breaks/holes in the stratus, and model soundings from the RAP indicate the moisture layer is shallow and thus more sensitive to being eroded thru insolational effects. It looks like by mid morning that stratus should start to disperse over the western and central portions of Southern New England, and into the late-morning hrs for eastern MA and most of RI. Could take until early this afternoon before we start to see some more optimism in stratus for the South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands. Once the stratus burns off, expect mostly full sun and warming temps. Brought highs up a couple degrees which should bring most of the CT valley into the low 80s, with mid 70s for central MA/Metrowest Boston into northern RI. Previous discussion: Today is the cornerstone of a pattern shift towards summer like conditions across southern New England with surface high pressure centered over southern NH/ME and mid level ridging continuing to build into southern New England. Greatest forecast challenge today will be cloud cover, and by proxy, high temperatures with high resolution guidance again struggling overnight to accurately depict clearing across wide swaths of the area. As of this writing, very little fog has developed across the region away from the coast while light drizzle continues to advect over SE MA and the Cape. Most abundant sunshine will be across the CT River Valley where clear conditions developed overnight. While dry air moves in with force above 850mb today, and RH falls to as low as ~25% between 850- 300mb this afternoon, model soundings show the surface inversion/low level moisture driven by onshore flow will hold steady through at least mid morning across eastern MA/RI, with the NAM suggesting the inversion won`t mix out until early afternoon. With high to our north, a gradual wind shift from NE to S/SW through late evening should kickstart clearing this afternoon. So, while gradual clearing is expected for portions of the CWA from Worcester, east, clouds will really struggle to mix out across the Cape/Islands/South Coast today where PWATs remain above 1.1". With a high degree of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast, particularly for eastern MA/RI, there is potential for a bit of a bust in temperatures, particularly in eastern MA. Generally trended towards a middle of the road solution with highs around 80 across CT and western MA, in the low 70s across the coastal plain, and as cool as the upper 50s on Nantucket!, more clearing and deeper mixing will result in much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Patchy fog development is possible again tonight though developing SW winds around 5-10kt, and dewpoint depressions around 4F should preclude widespread fog across the interior. With that said, the same mechanism of SW flow should encourage some fog/reduced vsbys along the South Coast and Islands where both temps and dewpoints hover around 50F and SSTs are in the low to mid 50s. With surface high still in place and mid level ridge growing stronger, guidance is still quite poor in diagnosing cloud cover for Tuesday, with several CAMs, like the HRRR, showing a mostly cloudy day. Not feeling particularly keen on the "cloudy all day" solutions with PWATs falling to as low as 0.7" and low RH above the mixed layer, but early morning fog/stratus, particularly along the south coast, may take a few hours to burn off. Decent boundary layer mixing with 850mb temperatures approaching 16C will support highs well into the 80s across much of the interior, though onshore flow across the south coast will keep temps much cooler there, in the 60s to perhaps 70s. Given SW flow, Boston MAY see their first 80F reading of the season, and while it`s possible the ASOS may not hit 80F, the western suburbs of the city have a high likelihood of doing so. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: * Peak of the midweek very warm weather is Wednesday - 80s highs with a few locations in the CT and Merrimack Valleys seeing a few 90 degree readings. Tolerable humidity levels. * Cold front Thursday afternoon to early evening brings a reprieve to the warmth but also could fuel scattered t-storms. * Drier and with cooler, more seasonable temperatures Friday into the Memorial Day Weekend. Details: Still looking at Wednesday as the warmest day of the anticipated midweek spell of very warm temperatures reminiscent of summer. 850 mb temps rising into the +14 to +16C range along with full mixing and southwest breezes should promote these very warm temperatures. NBM probs continue to show moderate to high (60 to 90 percent) probs of temps reaching 90+ degrees in the CT and Merrimack Valleys, with lower (no greater than 30%) probs of 90+ high temps in central MA, northeast CT and portions of Metrowest. These are a bit higher than the prior 13z NBM cycle. The one thing that is a little peculiar in the NWP is that modeled dewpoints were shown to be in the lower to mid 60s across a good majority of the guidance; I don`t think values this high are necessarily realistic given the well mixed PBL and adiabatic downsloping that should be taking place per model soundings. That`s also a concern/source of uncertainty as we move into Thursday as well. Advertised highs upper 80s to low 90s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys - although those could be somewhat conservative - and the mid 80s for most of northern RI, central and eastern MA. Cooler readings near the south coast (upper 60s-mid 70s) where SW flow will allow for a bit of a maritime breeze. Should be a pretty mild Wednesday evening too, mid 50s to lower 60s, but did note some of the guidance showing weakening convection moving in from eastern NY into our far western counties in MA later in the overnight. Left a slight chance PoP mention in the forecast for now for the eastern Berkshires but we`ll have to see if this materializes in subsequent guidance. A cold front then trudges eastward through Southern New England on Thursday. It seems as though in the 00z guidance that the front is about 6 hours slower than prior model cycles; that may allow for another very warm day with a slower timing, but also could allow for slightly more convective instability to help spark showers/t-storms along the front, particularly near and west of I-95. Similar to Wednesday, models are now forecasting dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s although those seem a bit high. If we can see dewpoints push into the lower 60s, we could see CAPE values around 800-1500 J/kg accompanied by deep-layer southwesterly shear magnitudes around 35 kt (stronger flow mainly to our north). This is really on the borderline for storms becoming strong to severe and doesn`t really scream "severe storms", but is something we`ll be needing to monitor in the coming days. Kept highs in the upper 60s/around 70 near the south coast, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further inland. For Friday, the cold front`s southeastward passage further offshore could be delayed a bit as the front`s orientation becomes nearly parallel to the 700-300 mb flow, which could keep clouds and showers around the south coast for part of the day. However high pressure is progged to ridge into much of New England, with ridging continuing into a good part of the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures Friday into the weekend trend cooler and more seasonable than midweek, with highs in the 70s (60s near the coast). Thus so far, weather conditions for Memorial Day Weekend seem favorable. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on the timing. Initially, a mix of MVFR to LIFR from stratus ceilings, with lowest ceilings further east and south one goes. Stratus should start to burn off to VFR by ~14-16z for the western and central airports, and around ~16-18z for BED, BOS and PVD. It may take until midafternoon before scattering out to VFR over the Cape and Islands. One potential fly in the ointment that will need ot be monitored is if stratus returns back landward in coastal areas as winds shift from NE to E/ESE - it seems unlikely as the flow is light but is a possible outcome. Tonight: Moderate confidence. IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog. Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF/trends though some uncertainty on the timing of eroding stratus. MVFR should trend to VFR by ~16-18z with winds becoming E by this afternoon. Low clouds may return tonight after 03z as winds shift to light southeast. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF/trends, though some uncertainty on the timing of eroding stratus. MVFR bases erode to VFR by ~13-15z. Light NE winds shift to S around 4-6 kt this afternoon. Could see patchy fog develop tonight but this isn`t set in stone. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... High confidence Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...high confidence. Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times. Tuesday... high confidence AM fog will burn off to pleasant boating conditions. SW winds with seas less than 5 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1181014 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through mid morning. - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Dense fog continues over portions of the Piedmont and a dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 9 AM. Fog should scour out shortly after. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds continues to affect the coastal terminals this morning w/ IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs. Further inland, rather widespread fog is noted. As of 11z, it is most widespread W of RIC and in the Piedmont. Expect RIC to fluctuate some this morning w/ occasional decreases in VSBY to IFR or LIFR. The fog should clear shortly near or just before 9 AM/13z. IFR or MVFR CIGs continue at the coast through at least mid- morning. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast through most of today. For tonight, additional low stratus or fog is expected w/ widespread flight restrictions to IFR- LIFR. Winds become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Winds turn light tonight. Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181013 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 543 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Patchy fog will be possible once again later this morning, but not expecting it to be quite as widespread or dense with surface conditions being a little bit drier than previous nights. Locations west of I-45 have the best chance of seeing fog development mainly between the timeframe of 5-9AM. Hot and dry conditions persist as we kick off the new work week, but we`ll at least have a southerly breeze to work with. Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure developing in the Texas Panhandle. This`ll tighten the pressure gradient a bit leading to southerly/southeasterly winds around 10 mph throughout the day. We`re still going to see temperatures top out in the low 90s, but 90s with a breeze feels waaay better than the low 90s with no wind. Heat index values will still be in the upper 90s though. That onshore flow will come back to haunt us tomorrow with increasing humidity leading to even higher heat index values. Temperatures during the overnight hours will continue to be well above normal with lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight and solidly in the upper 70s on Tuesday night. We get even breezier on Tuesday as a shortwave trough pushing through the Four Corners region generates another (and slightly stronger) surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies. The deepening of this surface low will lead to southeasterly winds around 15 mph throughout the day. Being in the warm sector of this surface low allows for moisture to increase even further. PW values will be in the 1.3-1.7" range by Tuesday afternoon (75th percentile: ~1.60"). There will also be a 20-25 kt LLJ overhead and some upper level diffluence, but with subsidence from the ridging aloft and a very robust capping inversion aloft around 850mb...don`t expect to see anything more than a higher percentage of cloud cover sticking around through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will still top out in the low 90s Tuesday, but with the added humidity it`ll feel like the triple digits! Heat index values are expected to be in the 99-103F range, so heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 With mid/upper level ridging situated to our south and southwest throughout this period, there are some indications in a couple of the latest model runs that we might have to keep an eye on possible shower/storm development from around midweek and on into the weekend. The latest NBM continues its dry trend with only low rain chances Thursday afternoon/evening, and will stick with this for now. As has been advertised, the main concern will be the heat. High temperatures will be in the 90s, and heat index values will generally be in a 95 to 105 range (and possible getting close to heat advisory values on Monday...a week from today). Little relief will come overnight as morning lows by the end of the week and especially over the weekend will range from the low to mid 70s up north to the upper 70s to around 80 central and south. As exactly stated above and for several days now...heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. 42 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Nighttime satellite imagery depicts low-level clouds filtering in from the south mainly west of I-45 early this morning. This may require a short TEMPO for MVFR ceilings/visibilities till 14Z. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with southeasterly winds around 8-12 knots. Widespread MVFR ceilings expected during the late evening to overnight hours, and there looks to be some potential for intermittent periods of IFR ceilings as well. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light to mostly moderate onshore winds can be expected through much of this week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times around midweek as the onshore flow increases and seas rise. 42 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Monday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast) MINOR// ------- - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor (forecast) Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 91 75 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 78 85 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181012 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... No big changes with the latest update. Some low clouds/fog are expected west of Wilmington through around daybreak. However, another area of low clouds moving in from the northeast could impact the Wilmington area as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR for the 12Z TAF period, although some low clouds/fog are possible this morning, mainly through around daybreak, and again late tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period |
| #1181011 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 635 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings will begin to lift through 14Z inland, then along the coast by 18Z. High pressure builds to the north as the low moves slowly away to the east northeast through tonight. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will turn northeasterly and become breezy later this morning as the high builds down the east coast 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area while mainly dry at SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX and CRG by 18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 63 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 81 70 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 82 65 83 67 / 20 10 20 0 SGJ 82 69 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 85 63 86 64 / 30 0 40 0 OCF 86 64 87 67 / 20 10 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181010 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as deep ridging remains across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up today and Tuesday. Skies should be mostly clear at night and partly cloudy during the day. Primarily light easterly winds today and tonight becoming southeasterly on Tuesday. Patchy fog is expected to develop across Stone, George, Perry and southwest Greene counties late tonight. Temperatures will remain 1-5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs today and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows ranging from 62 to 66 degrees interior areas and from 67 to 72 degrees close to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today becomes Low on Tuesday. /22 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The forecast remains dry and warm through at least Thursday. Ridging aloft continues to nose into the region from the southwestern Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten into the Gulf Thursday into the weekend as a series of shortwaves skirt along the periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf through at least Friday and potentially into the early part of the weekend. A weak front associated with the first shortwave will attempt to drift into the MidSouth, but likely won`t make it near our region given the influence of deep layer ridging. The surface high`s grasp over the local area should keep the bulk of the showers and storms further to our north on Friday. We maintained the 15-25% POPs on Friday afternoon, but our confidence in these POPs is rather low at this time given the nearby ridging. The best chance for showers and storms over the weekend will be generally north of the Highway 84 corridor in the afternoon hours and early evening hours. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with the RCMOS probabilities also remaining LOW through the weekend. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 68 87 67 86 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 87 70 86 70 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 72 83 71 83 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 88 63 89 63 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 89 65 90 65 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 87 63 89 64 89 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 89 65 89 63 89 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181008 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 605 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast will affect VLD, ABY, and TLH with a few hours of MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings are expected to scatter and become VFR later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181007 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 342 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south Texas. The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies. Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level (110F) won`t be reached. Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico, looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation. The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be limited over the region. Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%). Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk level (3 out of 4). && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take breaks, and wear light, loose clothing. Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to burn well to our south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the this TAF cycle. Some brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected tonight at ALI and VCT due to a low chance of patchy fog developing tonight. Any site that drops to MVFR should return to VFR by tomorrow morning. Winds will also pick up tomorrow and be gusty at times, especially late in the afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 78 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181006 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:57 AM 20.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 This morning has felt like summertime in terms of convection across the Florida Keys. Mesoscale boundaries have been the main trigger mechanism for convection, with multiple outflow boundaries still present on radar. KBYX is currently detecting scattered convection within the forecast area, with most of the storms aligning with or being adjacent to the island chain. The strongest activity is currently located near the Upper and Middle Keys. Good upper- level support has been very evident across most of the region, with radar derived hail hedging close to 2" inches in the waters across the Bahamas and even in a storm that plowed through the distant Straits earlier. The activity closer to home has not been able to fire up as well until just recently, which may be due in part to drier air in the mid- levels sampled by last night`s 00Z sounding. The storms that have been able to overcome this drier air have been able to tap into the fat CAPE profiles and have gone nuts. Panning out from the Keys, a trough is extending across the western North Atlantic, dragging a frontal boundary in its wake. This front has made it almost to Central Florida. A good environment will remain in place for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. Winds will continue to shift to the north ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary, which will continue to usher in lower dew points. Dew points have already dropped roughly 3-5 degrees over the past few hours, which has made quite an impressive difference in the level of comfort when walking outdoors. These lowered dew points and temperatures will keep the Keys below the threshold for Heat Advisories through the remainder of the week. Winds will remain generally from the northwest to north through Tuesday night, briefing becoming variable on Tuesday. Decent moisture will remain in place through Wednesday, which could help spur on mesoscale processes such as cloud lines during this timeframe. Guidance has trended downwards on the higher rain chances through Wednesday, so have capped PoPs at 30%. Forecast rain chances may continue to decrease, depending on how much dry air can invade into the mid-levels. Easterly flow will return by mid-week as high pressure really builds back in, which will allow for dew points to gradually rise back into the mid 70s. As of now, MOS guidance does not hint at any of the oppressive dew points we have been tormented with over the past few days returning through the extended forecast luckily. && .MARINE... Issued at 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a frontal boundary currently draped across north Central Florida has helped the wind field across the Florida Keys become somewhat nebulous this morning. Breezes have begun to shift to the west to northwest in the western waters. By this afternoon, breezes will veer to the northwest and increase. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Widely scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane in the vicinity of the island chain early this morning. After sunrise, this activity will diminish with slight rain chances persisting throughout the rest of the day. VCTS is included at both terminals until we expect this activity to die down, though any shower passing over a terminal may result in MVFR CIGs or VIS and will be TEMPO`ed as needed. Near surface winds will start out light of the southwest, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1932, the daily record rainfall of 3.83" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 30 Marathon 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181005 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 430 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 400 AM Monday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 AM Mon...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west at the end of the week bringing chances for unsettled weather. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may reach or exceed 90 by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops capped 30% on Fri, and perhaps slightly better chances Sat at 40%. Followed closer to convective climatology this far out, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to evening time periods, with very small shower chances overnight through the noon period. Hottest day of the week appears Fri, where highs around 90 or even a tick higher are possible interior, with 70s to around 80 beaches. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/... As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95. More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR visibilities. LONG TERM /Tue through Friday/... As of 430 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions are expected through much of the week. Exception may be early Tue, when MVFR or lower stratus and/or fog possible in the morning hours with light onshore flow. Next chance of thundershowers not until Friday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 415 AM Monday...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Mon...Good boating cond this week as high pres dominates. Nerly breezes on Tue become srly on Wed as high pres eases offshore. Winds will remain light (5-15 kt) through the end of the week, with seas remaining below 5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181003 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 AM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 317 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This will effectively suppress cloud development to below the inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period. Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall, have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum. However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile, and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the short term with high pressure in place over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware, this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low 100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also, kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting. Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend. Something to check back on. KLG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don`t see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight. These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening. Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions should improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren`t expected to provide any significant restrictions either. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is on tap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 68 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 90 72 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 87 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181002 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 AM 20.May.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 416 AM AST Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot conditions will prevail across the local islands through Tuesday. Some Saharan dust will linger around too, resulting in hazy skies. Then, it will become unsettled and wet, as a trough develops west of the islands. The risk for flooding and mudslides will increase for the second half of the workweek. Conditions will gradually improve during the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday... Showers lingered across northwestern Puerto Rico during the early night hours and then across the local waters onward through the morning with some light showers brushing the eastern coastal region of Puerto Rico. Another hot day is expected with a Heat Advisory in place for all coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI today from 10 AM to 6 PM local time. An area of weak high pressure across the central Atlantic and low pressure at the surface in the western Atlantic will allow light to moderate southeasterly flow to prevail through Wednesday. This will bring warmer than usual temperatures across the islands, especially for coastal areas that are expected to have heat indices between 100 and 110, some isolated areas higher. Due to this, heat advisories are anticipated through at least tomorrow. Relatively normal precipitable water values through tomorrow will allow a seasonal passing showers and afternoon convection to prevail, with north western Puerto rico having the best chance of rain during the afternoon hours. Conditions will begin to shift to a wetter pattern by Wednesday morning as as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin, raising a moist airmass into the region. Models hint that the strongest segment of the jet aloft will remain well to the northwest of the area. However, 500 mb temperatures and precipitable water values are forecast to reach values that bring the expectation of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Surface winds will also strengthen over Wednesday night due to the development of a surface trough west of the region. Due to this squally weather, the risk of flooding becomes present for areas that receive heavy rainfall. This is the beginning of a wet pattern as Wednesday appears to be the first day of this rain event which is expected to last through the weekend. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday On Thursday, the islands will be squeezed between a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic and a surface trough/low over Hispaniola. Plenty of moisture will stream from the Caribbean Sea into the islands, with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches possible (above climatology). Additionally, pockets of vorticity at the mid levels will be advected into the islands, hence conditions will favor the continuation of showers and thunderstorms over the region into Friday. It is not that it will rain all the time, but these showers could be heavy from time to time, maintaining elevated the risk for flooding, mudslides and rapid river rises. Also, early on Thursday, as the low lifts northward, a swath of winds will move over the region, bringing gusts of 20-25 knots with the heavy showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, trailing moisture from the low, now expected to be well north of Puerto Rico will continue to impact the region. Although the rain is not expected to be as widespread, it could aid in the development of convection for the interior, north and west of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Some showers will also move in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands. On Sunday and Monday, some improvement is anticipated, mostly for the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, but conditions will remain very favorable for afternoon activity, again for the interior, northern and western Puerto Rico. The heat risk was maintained below the limited criteria for Wednesday and Thursday, mostly because of the cloud coverage, but it is expected to be back again Friday onward, when the sun peeks once more across the northeastern Caribbean archipelagos. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA will move across the local waters, and could reach the USVI and PR terminals at times. After 16z an increase of rain is expected across the Cordillera Central and around TJBQ, where periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are possible. Winds will from the SE at 8-13 kts, with stronger wind gusts and sea breezes variations. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will drive the trade winds from the southeast at moderate speed. A trough will develop south of Hispaniola, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the local waters Wednesday onward. This trough may increase winds across the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters Wednesday night into Thursday. && .CLIMATE... The record high for today for San Juan Area is 92, set in 1999. The forecast high is 93F, so if the forecast verifies, a new daily maximum record will be set today for this climate site. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>003-005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181001 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 420 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor. Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1- 1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C), and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth. While strong storm development could be limited with some uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie counties where surface instability will be maximized. Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic, extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with highs forecast near 90 degrees. Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast) to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward trend each following day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Few nuisance showers across the interior initially and may handle with VCSH and a TEMPO group as necessary. Generally a WRLY component of wind thru the night, then gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals around 21Z on Mon, where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0 MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0 MLB 87 73 85 72 / 30 10 50 10 VRB 89 71 87 71 / 40 20 50 10 LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0 SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0 ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0 FPR 90 69 87 70 / 50 20 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1181000 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:12 AM 20.May.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 411 AM AST Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot conditions will prevail across the local islands through Tuesday. Some Saharan dust will linger around too, resulting in hazy skies. Then, it will become unsettled and wet, as a trough develops west of the islands. The risk for flooding and mudslides will increase for the second half of the workweek. Conditions will gradually improve during the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday... Showers lingered across northwestern Puerto Rico during the early night hours and then across the local waters onward through the morning with some light showers brushing the eastern coastal region of Puerto Rico. Another hot day is expected with a Heat Advisory in place for all coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI today from 10 AM to 6 PM local time. An area of weak high pressure across the central Atlantic and low pressure at the surface in the western Atlantic will allow light to moderate southeasterly flow to prevail through Wednesday. This will bring warmer than usual temperatures across the islands, especially for coastal areas that are expected to have heat indices between 100 and 110, some isolated areas higher. Due to this, heat advisories are anticipated through at least tomorrow. Relatively normal precipitable water values through tomorrow will allow a seasonal passing showers and afternoon convection to prevail, with north western Puerto rico having the best chance of rain during the afternoon hours. Conditions will begin to shift to a wetter pattern by Wednesday morning as as a deep layered trough moves through the Caribbean basin, raising a moist airmass into the region. Models hint that the strongest segment of the jet aloft will remain well to the northwest of the area. However, 500 mb temperatures and precipitable water values are forecast to reach values that bring the expectation of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Surface winds will also strengthen over Wednesday night due to the development of a surface trough west of the region. Due to this squally weather, the risk of flooding becomes present for areas that receive heavy rainfall. This is the beginning of a wet pattern as Wednesday appears to be the first day of this rain event which is expected to last through the weekend. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday On Thursday, the islands will be squeezed between a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic and a surface trough/low over Hispaniola. Plenty of moisture will stream from the Caribbean Sea into the islands, with precipitable water values above 2.5 inches possible (above climatology). Additionally, pockets of vorticity at the mid levels will be advected into the islands, hence conditions will favor the continuation of showers and thunderstorms over the region into Friday. It is not that it will rain all the time, but these showers could be heavy from time to time, maintaining elevated the risk for flooding, mudslides and rapid river rises. Also, early on Thursday, as the low lifts northward, a swath of winds will move over the region, bringing gusts of 20-25 knots with the heavy showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, trailing moisture from the low, now expected to be well north of Puerto Rico will continue to impact the region. Although the rain is not expected to be as widespread, it could aid in the development of convection for the interior, north and west of Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Some showers will also move in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands. On Sunday and Monday, some improvement is anticipated, mostly for the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, but conditions will remain very favorable for afternoon activity, again for the interior, northern and western Puerto Rico. The heat risk was maintained below the limited criteria for Wednesday and Thursday, mostly because of the cloud coverage, but it is expected to be back again Friday onward, when the sun peeks once more across the northeastern Caribbean archipelagos. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA will move across the local waters, and could reach the USVI and PR terminals at times. After 16z an increase of rain is expected across the Cordillera Central and around TJBQ, where periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are possible. Winds will from the SE at 8-13 kts, with stronger wind gusts and sea breezes variations. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will drive the trade winds from the southeast at moderate speed. A trough will develop south of Hispaniola, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the local waters Wednesday onward. This trough may increase winds across the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters Wednesday night into Thursday. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>003-005-007-008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180999 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 352 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist for most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances should impact our area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pronounced short-wave has progressed well out of the Georgia outer waters along with the bulk of the remaining convection, although isolated showers along the western periphery of the circulation continue to rotate down through the coastal waters and skirting the Georgia coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover also along the northern and western edge of the wave continues to skirt the coastal areas down through southeast Georgia, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from the north. Short-wave trough axis will move further away from the coast today replaced with sharp upper level ridging and surface high pressure folding into the Atlantic Coast. Today: Per radar trends and high-resolution guidance, spotty shower activity is looking to skirt the southeast Georgia Coast - mainly around Altamaha - through the early morning hours. Thus we plan to hold on to isolated pops down that way for just a bit longer. Cloud cover and the last bit of shower activity will slowly pull away from the southeast coast over the next several hours with drier air and N-S clearing skies taking shape this morning. Forecast soundings do suggest the development of "heating of the day" Cu later in the morning and through the afternoon and could lead to period of partly sunny conditions. Cloud cover has been nudged up accordingly. Otherwise, a cooler and certainly less humid day is on tap. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s anticipated...coolest along the coast and around Lake Moultrie. Tonight: Any diurnal cloud cover will fade quickly this evening with mainly clear skies anticipated thereafter. Along with diminishing winds and lower dewpoints, lows will dip into the upper 50s inland to the middle 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning. It will transition into a cut- off Low in the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will strengthen over the Southeast U.S. during the day and at night. Broad High pressure centered to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses. Though, it`s southern periphery will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature for our weather during the day and into the night. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. High temperatures should be in the mid 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The mid-levels will consist of a cut-off Low meandering off the Southeast coast, while a ridge prevails over the Southeast U.S. At the surface, High pressure along the Southeast coast in the morning will shift offshore into the afternoon. A front will slowly approach from the north and northwest during the evening and overnight. Though, it won`t make it near our area as the periphery of the High remains the dominant synoptic feature. Ongoing low and mid-level subsidence will continue to bring our area dry conditions with mostly sunny/clear skies. Expect an inland moving sea breeze during the afternoon. Highs will peak in the upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Thursday: A mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. in the morning will weaken as the day progresses. Surface High pressure just off the Southeast coast in the morning will move further offshore as the day progresses. The front to our north and northwest will continue to approach. However, it won`t make it to our area. This periphery of the High will bring yet another day with dry conditions. Expect fair weather cumulus in the afternoon along with a sea breeze. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect west southwest mid-level flow over our region Thursday night. A weak trough may pass to our north Friday night into Saturday, possibly followed by weak ridging on Sunday. Surface High pressure in the western Atlantic Thursday night will shift further offshore into the weekend. A cold front could approach from the north and northwest later Friday, then lift north on Saturday. Expect some diurnal convection on Friday, with convection more likely during the weekend. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal each day. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR to VFR cloud cover will persist at the terminals through the overnight, with gradual N-S clearing and return to VFR conditions by morning. VFR conditions then persist through the day Monday but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of the day" Cumulus develop late morning and persisting through the afternoon. Turning clear Monday evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will be building along the Atlantic coast through today. The resulting tighter pressure gradient across the coastal waters will continue to produce gustier northeasterly winds today and tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common today with seas building to 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters and 4 to 6 feet in the outer Georgia waters. We have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters for today through early evening. It`s a bit more marginal across the nearshore waters with no headline planned at this time. But we will continue to monitor conditions for possible expansion of the SCA as we go through the day. Extended Marine: NE winds on Tuesday will shift around to the SE by later Wednesday as High pressure gradually shifts off our coast. This will lead to a more typical summer wind pattern beginning on Thursday. That`s when mariners should expect backing winds during the day, along with stronger wind gusts along the land/sea interface with the formation of the afternoon breeze. At night, winds should veer as low level jetting sets up along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated through the middle of this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides tonight through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1180998 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 251 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, daytime high temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 105 and 110 degrees today, with isolated spots reaching 111 degrees. Thus, will not issue a Heat Advisory for today, but will instead cover the heat threat with a Special Weather Statement. However, for Tuesday, a Heat Advisory may very well be needed, with heat indices progged to max out at 111 to 112 degrees across a more widespread area. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Tuesday for now, and address the issue in about 24 hours (if not less than that by a successive shift) after Monday highs are tabled and new model guidance is available. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A broad 500 mb ridge centered over Mexico extending into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady low-level southeasterly to southerly flow will result in continued humid conditions across the area. Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend as the mid to upper level ridge continues to build. High temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s along the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69E/US 77 corridor by Friday. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures ranging from upper 90s along the beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. Overnight temperatures will remain warm with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The "feels like" temperatures each night will remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Today through Tuesday: Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. An initially modest pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will strengthen slightly during the period, with high pressure generally in control. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will become moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas during the period, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed on Tuesday, especially for the Laguna Madre. Tuesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Wednesday through the holiday weekend due to increased winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 96 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 101 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180997 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 343 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring unseasonably cool air into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR to start the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period with high pressure in control, although some low-level moisture will be present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially at KILM around daybreak. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180996 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 329 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Although much of the area remained rain free on Sunday, limited rain chances are expected to continue today and Tuesday with lingering moisture likely to produce a few showers and storms during the afternoon and evening primarily over the interior as a weak surface boundary remains draped across the peninsula while a trough aloft extends SW across the state from the W Atlantic. Guidance continues to indicate meager rain chances for W FL today with PoPs generally 20-30 percent. With the setup continuing to favor interior convection and PWATs trending down toward the 1-1.3 inch range across most of the area today through early Tuesday, lower PoPs seem likely with best chances along the interior. As the trough aloft begins to shift east into the Atlantic on Tuesday, surface ridging along the E Seaboard will begin gradually building into the state with low-level NE winds overspreading the area and advecting Atlantic moisture across the state leading to a slight uptick in PoPs Tuesday afternoon with highest chances still focused across the interior but spreading further across W FL. By Wednesday upper ridging looks to build NE across the state from the SW Gulf while the surface ridge remains in place, leading to mainly dry conditions for the majority of the area as subsidence limits moisture depth and rain chances, mainly to 20 percent or less for southern interior and SWFL locations. Shortwaves and attendant surface low pressure systems trekking across the OH/TN Valleys over the latter half of the week will weaken the ridging aloft while the surface ridge will shift E into the Atlantic in response, causing winds to shift to SE-S locally late week into the weekend with gradually increasing moisture and an increase in rain chances over the weekend into early next week. Temps generally within a few degrees of average over the early part of the week before warming to above normal over the latter half of the week with the ridging over the area. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast today and Monday with coastal areas in the lower to mid 80s, then warming into the lower to mid 90s mid week and beyond away from the coast with immediate coastal areas in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR expected through period with light winds overnight increasing out of the W-NW late morning into afternoon, highest in afternoon with higher gusts. Winds shift out of the NE and diminish during the evening. While afternoon and evening convection looks to remain east of terminals and confidence does not warrant mention this cycle, interior and SWFL terminals may require adjustments if trends favor potential impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains over the waters with W-NW winds today increasing along the immediate coast during the afternoon with sea breeze enhancement. High pressure then builds along the E Seaboard and over the waters Tuesday into late week favoring NE to E winds developing over the waters, turning onshore with the sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late week into the weekend allowing winds to become more S-SE over the weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A weak surface boundary remains draped across the state with winds generally NW-N today. High pressure builds into the state Tuesday into late week favoring NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic into the weekend allowing winds to shift out of the SE-S. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 91 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 91 70 90 71 / 30 10 40 0 SRQ 90 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 65 91 66 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 88 76 90 77 / 10 10 20 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180995 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 321 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s at the coast. A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier, cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to around 70 at the beachfront. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday, warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid 90s well inland, a little above normal. A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible in a few areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings are sinking south along the coast from SSI to the duval county TAF sites and should sink towards SGJ over the next hour, but remain northeast of GNV as weak high pressure builds to the north as the low to the northeast shifts east of the South Carolina coast. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will become more northeasterly towards 10Z and breezy at SSI through sunrise as the high builds down the east coast with continued MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR ceilings for most sites except GNV through 13Z with MVFR ceilings rising to 2.5 kft through 15-17Z along the coast while lifting to VFR inland after 13Z. Monday will feature breezy conditions 10-15 knots with gusts with higher gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area, limiting shower development for SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX/CRG by 17Z/18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze develops each afternoon. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on Tuesday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 63 87 63 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 81 70 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 82 65 83 67 / 20 10 20 0 SGJ 82 69 82 70 / 30 10 30 0 GNV 85 63 86 64 / 30 0 40 0 OCF 86 64 87 67 / 20 10 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180994 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 20.May.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Patchy fog will be possible once again later this morning, but not expecting it to be quite as widespread or dense with surface conditions being a little bit drier than previous nights. Locations west of I-45 have the best chance of seeing fog development mainly between the timeframe of 5-9AM. Hot and dry conditions persist as we kick off the new work week, but we`ll at least have a southerly breeze to work with. Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure developing in the Texas Panhandle. This`ll tighten the pressure gradient a bit leading to southerly/southeasterly winds around 10 mph throughout the day. We`re still going to see temperatures top out in the low 90s, but 90s with a breeze feels waaay better than the low 90s with no wind. Heat index values will still be in the upper 90s though. That onshore flow will come back to haunt us tomorrow with increasing humidity leading to even higher heat index values. Temperatures during the overnight hours will continue to be well above normal with lows in the mid to upper 70s tonight and solidly in the upper 70s on Tuesday night. We get even breezier on Tuesday as a shortwave trough pushing through the Four Corners region generates another (and slightly stronger) surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies. The deepening of this surface low will lead to southeasterly winds around 15 mph throughout the day. Being in the warm sector of this surface low allows for moisture to increase even further. PW values will be in the 1.3-1.7" range by Tuesday afternoon (75th percentile: ~1.60"). There will also be a 20-25 kt LLJ overhead and some upper level diffluence, but with subsidence from the ridging aloft and a very robust capping inversion aloft around 850mb...don`t expect to see anything more than a higher percentage of cloud cover sticking around through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will still top out in the low 90s Tuesday, but with the added humidity it`ll feel like the triple digits! Heat index values are expected to be in the 99-103F range, so heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 With mid/upper level ridging situated to our south and southwest throughout this period, there are some indications in a couple of the latest model runs that we might have to keep an eye on possible shower/storm development from around midweek and on into the weekend. The latest NBM continues its dry trend with only low rain chances Thursday afternoon/evening, and will stick with this for now. As has been advertised, the main concern will be the heat. High temperatures will be in the 90s, and heat index values will generally be in a 95 to 105 range (and possible getting close to heat advisory values on Monday...a week from today). Little relief will come overnight as morning lows by the end of the week and especially over the weekend will range from the low to mid 70s up north to the upper 70s to around 80 central and south. As exactly stated above and for several days now...heat safety must remain a top priority. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected through Mon evening. There is the chance for MVFR cigs early in the morning along with the development of patchy fog over portions of SE TX, but is expected to lift and disperse near sunrise. Light SE winds through around 14Z, strengthening to around 10 KTS thereafter. Winds are expected to stay elevated through Mon night. MVFR cigs are expected to develop Mon night into early Tue. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light to mostly moderate onshore winds can be expected through much of this week. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times around midweek as the onshore flow increases and seas rise. 42 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Monday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate to Minor - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast) MINOR// ------- - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor (forecast) Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 74 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 91 75 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 78 85 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180993 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 307 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today is the cornerstone of a pattern change towards more mild conditions though clouds and cool temperatures will still hang across the Cape. Much milder conditions Tuesday with heat peaking on Wednesday. Frontal passage Thursday, with increased thunderstorm chances, will usher in more seasonable temperatures for the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Today is the cornerstone of a pattern shift towards summer like conditions across southern New England with surface high pressure centered over southern NH/ME and mid level ridging continuing to build into southern New England. Greatest forecast challenge today will be cloud cover, and by proxy, high temperatures with high resolution guidance again struggling overnight to accurately depict clearing across wide swaths of the area. As of this writing, very little fog has developed across the region away from the coast while light drizzle continues to advect over SE MA and the Cape. Most abundant sunshine will be across the CT River Valley where clear conditions developed overnight. While dry air moves in with force above 850mb today, and RH falls to as low as ~25% between 850- 300mb this afternoon, model soundings show the surface inversion/low level moisture driven by onshore flow will hold steady through at least mid morning across eastern MA/RI, with the NAM suggesting the inversion won`t mix out until early afternoon. With high to our north, a gradual wind shift from NE to S/SW through late evening should kickstart clearing this afternoon. So, while gradual clearing is expected for portions of the CWA from Worcester, east, clouds will really struggle to mix out across the Cape/Islands/South Coast today where PWATs remain above 1.1". With a high degree of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast, particularly for eastern MA/RI, there is potential for a bit of a bust in temperatures, particularly in eastern MA. Generally trended towards a middle of the road solution with highs around 80 across CT and western MA, in the low 70s across the coastal plain, and as cool as the upper 50s on Nantucket!, more clearing and deeper mixing will result in much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Patchy fog development is possible again tonight though developing SW winds around 5-10kt, and dewpoint depressions around 4F should preclude widespread fog across the interior. With that said, the same mechanism of SW flow should encourage some fog/reduced vsbys along the South Coast and Islands where both temps and dewpoints hover around 50F and SSTs are in the low to mid 50s. With surface high still in place and mid level ridge growing stronger, guidance is still quite poor in diagnosing cloud cover for Tuesday, with several CAMs, like the HRRR, showing a mostly cloudy day. Not feeling particularly keen on the "cloudy all day" solutions with PWATs falling to as low as 0.7" and low RH above the mixed layer, but early morning fog/stratus, particularly along the south coast, may take a few hours to burn off. Decent boundary layer mixing with 850mb temperatures approaching 16C will support highs well into the 80s across much of the interior, though onshore flow across the south coast will keep temps much cooler there, in the 60s to perhaps 70s. Given SW flow, Boston MAY see their first 80F reading of the season, and while it`s possible the ASOS may not hit 80F, the western suburbs of the city have a high likelihood of doing so. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: * Peak of the midweek very warm weather is Wednesday - 80s highs with a few locations in the CT and Merrimack Valleys seeing a few 90 degree readings. Tolerable humidity levels. * Cold front Thursday afternoon to early evening brings a reprieve to the warmth but also could fuel scattered t-storms. * Drier and with cooler, more seasonable temperatures Friday into the Memorial Day Weekend. Details: Still looking at Wednesday as the warmest day of the anticipated midweek spell of very warm temperatures reminiscent of summer. 850 mb temps rising into the +14 to +16C range along with full mixing and southwest breezes should promote these very warm temperatures. NBM probs continue to show moderate to high (60 to 90 percent) probs of temps reaching 90+ degrees in the CT and Merrimack Valleys, with lower (no greater than 30%) probs of 90+ high temps in central MA, northeast CT and portions of Metrowest. These are a bit higher than the prior 13z NBM cycle. The one thing that is a little peculiar in the NWP is that modeled dewpoints were shown to be in the lower to mid 60s across a good majority of the guidance; I don`t think values this high are necessarily realistic given the well mixed PBL and adiabatic downsloping that should be taking place per model soundings. That`s also a concern/source of uncertainty as we move into Thursday as well. Advertised highs upper 80s to low 90s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys - although those could be somewhat conservative - and the mid 80s for most of northern RI, central and eastern MA. Cooler readings near the south coast (upper 60s-mid 70s) where SW flow will allow for a bit of a maritime breeze. Should be a pretty mild Wednesday evening too, mid 50s to lower 60s, but did note some of the guidance showing weakening convection moving in from eastern NY into our far western counties in MA later in the overnight. Left a slight chance PoP mention in the forecast for now for the eastern Berkshires but we`ll have to see if this materializes in subsequent guidance. A cold front then trudges eastward through Southern New England on Thursday. It seems as though in the 00z guidance that the front is about 6 hours slower than prior model cycles; that may allow for another very warm day with a slower timing, but also could allow for slightly more convective instability to help spark showers/t-storms along the front, particularly near and west of I-95. Similar to Wednesday, models are now forecasting dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s although those seem a bit high. If we can see dewpoints push into the lower 60s, we could see CAPE values around 800-1500 J/kg accompanied by deep-layer southwesterly shear magnitudes around 35 kt (stronger flow mainly to our north). This is really on the borderline for storms becoming strong to severe and doesn`t really scream "severe storms", but is something we`ll be needing to monitor in the coming days. Kept highs in the upper 60s/around 70 near the south coast, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further inland. For Friday, the cold front`s southeastward passage further offshore could be delayed a bit as the front`s orientation becomes nearly parallel to the 700-300 mb flow, which could keep clouds and showers around the south coast for part of the day. However high pressure is progged to ridge into much of New England, with ridging continuing into a good part of the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures Friday into the weekend trend cooler and more seasonable than midweek, with highs in the 70s (60s near the coast). Thus so far, weather conditions for Memorial Day Weekend seem favorable. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through Today... Low to Moderate Confidence in Vsby Forecast continues to be complex with conditions ranging anywhere from LIFR to VFR across the region. Away from the Cape and Islands, terminals generally MVFR to VFR but patchy fog through 12/13Z this morning may degrade conditions to LIFR before widespread MVFR (on the coast) to VFR (elsewhere) develops late this afternoon, though, VFR may be delayed to as late as 18/20Z in places like Boston and Providence. On the Cape, IFR likely to persist for a good portion of the day, with a chance for MVFR very late this afternoon. Winds calm to slightly NE this morning will gradually swing around to the south, first across the CT River Valley around 16/18Z, and last for the Cape and Islands. Monday night...Moderate confidence. IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog. Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends MVFR to IFR this morning, MVFR occurring through early afternoon before clouds scatter out to VFR. VSBY/cig reductions possible again tonight. Winds NE this morning shifting to the south late this evening. KBDL TAF...High Confidence VFR outside of some patchy fog both this morning and tomorrow morning leading to brief periods of IFR. Winds calm becoming S/SE this afternoon and SE tomorrow. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... High confidence Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...high confidence. Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times. Tuesday... high confidence AM fog will burn off to pleasant boating conditions. SW winds with seas less than 5 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1180992 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through sunrise this morning. - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Weak flow inland and moist low-levels is allowing fog to develop and expand. Nighttime microphysics channels and obs showing the densest fog as of 06z/2 AM in the I-95 corridor. This should expand westward and grow even more widespread closer to sunrise. Have issued a broad SPS for now, but may end up needing a dense fog advisory at some point. Most guidance scours the fog out by 8-9 AM and this seems reasonable. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY. However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: -All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week. 1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms. A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1180990 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through sunrise this morning. - Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast. High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Weak flow inland and moist low-levels is allowing fog to develop and expand. Nighttime microphysics channels and obs showing the densest fog as of 06z/2 AM in the I-95 corridor. This should expand westward and grow even more widespread closer to sunrise. Have issued a broad SPS for now, but may end up needing a dense fog advisory at some point. Most guidance scours the fog out by 8-9 AM and this seems reasonable. For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe. - Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend. The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY. However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week. A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay). These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal. Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday. Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday.... Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days. With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1180988 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 219 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday. Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft. Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area). The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the AM hours although a few showers could be possible near the SE terminals. There will be a chance of restrictions this afternoon in thunderstorms over the east coast terminals beginning around 18Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend W-SW this morning, although a shift to the E-SE will be possible along the east coast terminals this afternoon although confidence in the sea breeze is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 76 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 95 74 90 73 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 90 76 / 60 40 60 40 Homestead 94 75 89 76 / 40 30 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 76 87 76 / 60 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 75 87 76 / 60 50 50 40 Pembroke Pines 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 91 72 87 73 / 60 40 40 30 Boca Raton 93 74 88 75 / 60 50 50 40 Naples 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180987 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 214 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Light northeasterly winds will dominate today as an upper level trough moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic states. There may be just enough low level convergence along the sea breeze this afternoon across the coastal big bend areas for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing significant is expected and most areas will stay dry. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge axis builds into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday while at the surface, an axis high pressure axis slowly shifts east. Dry mid-level air and easterly flow in the lower levels will lead to mostly sunny skies and warm conditions through the period. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday and the warm up continues into Wednesday and beyond with widespread low 90s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Ridge axis slowly translates east towards the weekend period as southwesterly and more progressive flow aloft develops. A few passing disturbances to our north will move through the westerly flow bringing perhaps a return to low rain chances by the end of the week and weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and better low-level moisture returns. In the absence of any significant systems and mostly dry conditions, we`ll see the warm up continue with temperatures nearing the mid 90s for some locations by end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast could affect VLD and ABY with a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Northeast winds become easterly through Tuesday as high pressure moves by and to the north of area waters. Winds will turn to the southeast and then south through the week with southwesterly winds expected by Friday. Speeds wont reach much more than 10 knots so expect low seas of 2 to 3 feet or less through the week. Highest wind speeds generally will be in the overnight period as nocturnal surges from the Atlantic Seabreeze moves through. No rain expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Winds will remain light with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180986 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 151 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 145 AM Monday...THigh pressure ridging extends S`wards into the Carolinas in the wake of a S`ward moving cold front with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and a mid level trough to our south. High pressure ridging continues to build S`wards keeping the area dry. Given the close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across eastern portions of the FA. As we near daybreak continued NE`rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There remains some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast for now but will have to monitor trends as the night progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Monday...No major changes to the forecast at this time. Previous Discussion...As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on continued NE`rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/... As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95. More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR visibilities. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and southern coastal waters SCA`s that are out. Otherwise general trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday continued NE`rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while seas remain around 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1180985 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 157 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Outflow boundary that originated in SE GA has pushed into NE FL extending from coastal Duval County through the northern Suwannee Valley this early evening. The outflow will continue to push southward this evening with surface cool front lagging behind north of the Altamaha River Basin. Most residual and isolated convection remains along and ahead of the outflow boundary. The cool front is expected to push through most of the forecast region during the overnight hours. The convection mainly be isolated to widely scattered over north central FL the remaining daylight hours, become isolated during the mid to late evening. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon. Main concern for any storms which do develop will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, as DCAPE values hover around the 1000 J/kg range. Activity will shift towards the coast during the early evening hours. Isolated Coastal showers will linger through the overnight hours over the SE GA coast, with some activity possible during the pre-dawn morning hours along the coast in NE FL. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for inland locations, with coastal locations hovering near the 70 mark. Current forecast has these trends well in hand with only minor and subtle changes to the POPS to mirror the forecast convective chances over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Winds will die down in the evening hours, with skies becoming mostly clear inland. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60`s staying in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Tuesday, weather will be similar to monday just a bit drier, causing lower chances of 20-40% for storms and precipitation for NE FL in the morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure continues to build into the area Wednesday with an upper level ridge moving in from the west. Expect mostly clear skies for the rest of the week, becoming partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Models show the next best chance for rain will be over the weekend in the afternoon and evening high pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.hours as PWAT values increase to 1.5"+ and an upper level trough moves into the area. Temperatures will slowly climb into the 90s by Thursday and stay through the weekend with overnight temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR/IFR low ceilings are sinking south along the coast from SSI to the duval county TAF sites and should sink towards SGJ over the next hour, but remain northeast of GNV as weak high pressure builds to the north as the low to the northeast shifts east of the South Carolina coast. Light northerly winds 4-8 knots will become more northeasterly towards 10Z and breezy at SSI through sunrise as the high builds down the east coast with continued MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR ceilings for most sites except GNV through 13Z with MVFR ceilings rising to 2.5 kft through 15-17Z along the coast while lifting to VFR inland after 13Z. Monday will feature breezy conditions 10-15 knots with gusts with higher gusts 20-25 knots near the coastal sites and 15-20 inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible inland where greater heating develops as drier air aloft shifts south across area, limiting shower development for SSI and ending VCSH coverage at JAX/CRG by 17Z/18Z with lingering convection over inland Northeast Florida by 22Z. Skies will clear from the northeast by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A slow moving cold front will continue to drift southward over the coastal waters through the afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the coming hours into the evening. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Breezy flow from the north- northeast overnight into Monday behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be near small craft advisory levels over the southeast Georgia waters Monday morning. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week. Rip Currents:Low risk of Rip Currents for the remainder of the day for all area beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for NE FL and SE GA beaches Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 63 87 63 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 80 70 81 69 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 81 66 84 65 / 30 0 20 0 SGJ 81 69 82 70 / 30 10 30 10 GNV 83 62 86 64 / 50 0 40 0 OCF 86 65 87 67 / 50 0 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180983 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 143 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The coastal storm that has brought low clouds, drizzle and cool northeast winds to RI and eastern MA, finally begins to exit out to sea tonight. This gives way to a significant pattern shift to drier and warmer weather beginning Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures reaching into the 80s, with an outside chance a few locations see 90 degrees on Wednesday. Humidity levels will be on the low side accompanying that midweek warmth, hence, a somewhat dry heat. A cold front arrives on Thursday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A more seasonable air mass then filters in for late in the week into at least the early part of Memorial Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM Update: Drizzle and stratus continue across eastern MA and RI with a few heavier showers scattered within the shield of drizzle. In stark comparison to the eastern half of the CWA, the CT River Valley has broken out into clear conditions, with temperatures still mild, in the 60s! As temperatures cool overnight, expecting stratus/fog to back from the east into areas like Hartford and Springfield, before conditions improve later tomorrow. 3 PM Update: Low level moist onshore jet continues to deliver overcast conditions and some spotty drizzle across RI and eastern MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. Meanwhile, breaks in the overcast are occurring across CT into MA, eastward into the Worcester Hills. Temps are responding to the strong May sunshine, with temps warming through the 60s there and a few low 70s, including 71 at BDL currently. Meanwhile, short wave energy traversing southward from the ME coast will continue to delay height rises from advancing eastward today. This also results in a nearly stationary low level ENE jet into eastern MA and RI, with the low level jet slowly shifting southward overnight, along with ridge of high pressure advecting south into SNE. Thus, drier trends overnight. However, low level moisture will likely remained trapped beneath the subsidence inversion from the surface ridge building southward. Hence, low clouds will remain stubborn across RI and eastern MA tonight and likely drifting back into CT and western/central MA, along with patchy fog possible. This low level moisture will yield seasonably cool temps overnight, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Although, it will feel cooler with northeast winds 15-25 mph, highest over southeast MA and RI, slowly slackening tonight as the surface ridge builds southward. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... 3 PM update... * Big improvement, more sunshine & warmer temperatures * Low 80s possible CT River Valley, including Hartford/Springfield Monday... Once short wave energy exits the eastern MA coast tonight, this allows height rises to advect Monday across the region from west to east and more importantly, low level jet easing and moving offshore. This ridging and associated subsidence will allow strong May sunshine to erode low level moisture/clouds and possible patchy fog Monday morning and give way to at least partial afternoon sunshine to the entire region. 12z models have trended warmer and this seems reasonable given the height rises and morning clouds giving way to at least partial late May sunshine. 850 mb temps increase to about +12C and 925 mb temps warm to +18C to +20C western MA, to +13C across southeast MA. This will support highs in the low 80s across western MA/CT, with much of the region seeing highs in the 70s and as far southeast into the I-95 corridor of MA/RI. With surface ridge over the area, afternoon seabreezes will develop and cap highs in the 60s for the coastline, possibly only into the upper 50s for the outer Cape and Nantucket. Monday night... Deep layer ridge over SNE will provide dry weather. Light winds and dew pts slightly above normal (low 50s), may yield patchy fog. This will also result in mild overnight temps, with lows 50-55. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... No big changes here, a warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with the chance for this summer-like warmth to continue on Thursday. A cold front moves across the region on Thursday, perhaps bringing a few stronger storms. Mixed signal heading into next weekend as the deterministic guidance remains split over a dry or semi-wet weekend. An anomolously warm air mass, driven by a modest mid-level ridge, is expected to linger over much of New England into Thursday, leading to well above normal surface temperatures. Global guidance suggests 850mb temperatures are +6C to +11C above what is normal over the course of those three days. The ridge does break down late Thursday into Friday a mid-level trough swings through. Tuesday afternoon there are high probabilities, greater than 80% for temperatures AOA 85 degrees, locations like Hartford, Springfield, Worcester, and Lowell. Many spots across the interior top out between 85F-89F, while closer to the coast a southwest wind keeps locations south of Providence/Taunton/Plymouth in the 70s, though the immediate coastline in the upper 60s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with a large portion of northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and much of Massachusetts (outside of southeast MA) with greater than 80% probabilities of afternoon temperatures AOA 85 degrees. It is not out of the question we have a few spots pushing 90 degrees, places in the Merrimack and CT River Valley have a greater than 70% chance. While less likely, there are even low probabilities of temperatures at or above 95F, around 40% in the Merrimack Valley. Thursday, the maximum temperatures will really depend on what time a cold front moves through and how much cold cover develops. Given the uncertainties, continues with NBM guidance, highs likely reach back into the middle 80s away from the coast. Temperatures turning more seasonable with highs in the 70 for Friday into next weekend. Much of this week is dry, the mid-level ridge does support a drier pattern. Not out of the question there could be a rouge afternoon shower/thunderstorm mainly areas northwest Massachusetts, but the better chance for showers is Thursday. Guidance is in pretty fair agreement a cold front moves across the region with the potential for thunderstorms - whether or not they are severe is still to be seen, but there are signs that the atmosphere could be favorable with modest CAPE, 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40 kts. Based off the previous deterministic run, the CSU machine learning have 5% to 15% of severe weather, something to monitor as we head into this week. Drying out on Friday, but there remains uncertainty with this upcoming weekend whether or not we see rain or not. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through Today... Low to Moderate Confidence in Vsby Forecast continues to be complex with conditions ranging anywhere from LIFR to VFR across the region. Away from the Cape and Islands, terminals generally MVFR to VFR but patchy fog through 12/13Z this morning may degrade conditions to LIFR before widespread MVFR (on the coast) to VFR (elsewhere) develops late this afternoon, though, VFR may be delayed to as late as 18/20Z in places like Boston and Providence. On the Cape, IFR likely to persist for a good portion of the day, with a chance for MVFR very late this afternoon. Winds calm to slightly NE this morning will gradually swing around to the south, first across the CT River Valley around 16/18Z, and last for the Cape and Islands. Monday night...Moderate confidence. IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog. Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends MVFR to IFR this morning, MVFR occurring through early afternoon before clouds scatter out to VFR. VSBY/cig reductions possible again tonight. Winds NE this morning shifting to the south late this evening. KBDL TAF...High Confidence VFR outside of some patchy fog both this morning and tomorrow morning leading to brief periods of IFR. Winds calm becoming S/SE this afternoon and SE tomorrow. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 3 PM update... Tonight...high confidence. Offshore low continues to generate marginal SCA with NE winds up to 25 kt (in gusts, not sustained) and seas up to 6 ft across the eastern MA waters, slowly subside tonight. Vsby may be reduced to 1- 3 miles at times in drizzle and fog. Monday... High confidence Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...high confidence. Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1180984 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 135 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The forecast is in great shape, so no changes to the forecast are forthcoming. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 An upper level trough continues to exit south GA this afternoon. Some showers have started to pop up with this low and may continue into the evening before dying out after sunset. Then mainly dry conditions continue into Monday. Temps tonight generally fall into the mid 60s, and then warm into the low to mid 80s in our GA and AL counties, and in the mid to upper 80s in our FL counties. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 While deep layer ridging builds in Monday night through Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an attendant shortwave are close enough on Tuesday to keep a low chance of a shower or rumble of thunder in the afternoon forecast for the far Southeast FL Big Bend. Otherwise for the remainder of the region and timeframe, dry weather is expected. Highs on Tuesday in the mid-80s to about 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid- level southerly flow getting underway by Thursday. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase midweek. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as the seabreeze pools limited moisture and instability on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mainly in the FL counties, but subsidence from the ridge should limit this potential with PoPs NIL for now. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. In fact, some models hint at a potential MCS just to our north. If this materializes, it will be watched to see if it propagates further south into our region on either Friday or Saturday. For now, PoPs are NIL on Friday with 20-30% PoPs on Saturday. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period. With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm to the upper 80s-lower 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 An area of low ceilings moving in from the northeast could affect VLD and ABY with a few hours of MVFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region with northeast winds mainly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Despite only 6-knot breezes at Buoy 42036, distant winds over the southern Gulf and western Caribbean are leading to southerly waves of 4 feet at 8 seconds. From CWF synopsis...Gentle northwest breezes this evening will clock around to the northeast on Monday as high pressure bridges down the Atlantic coastal plain and across the northeast Gulf. This pattern will favor a couple of nocturnal surges in winds both Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, winds become more southerly. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet through Monday, then decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through Friday, with the exception of higher seas up to around 3 feet in due to the nocturnal surges Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected over the next few days, with the potential for high dispersions being the main fire weather concerns. Tuesday, areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers may have high dispersions and on Wednesday SE AL and the W FL Panhandle. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will rise into minor flood stage by Monday. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 63 88 65 / 20 0 20 0 Apalachicola 82 71 82 71 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180982 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 141 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist through most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances will impact the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Pronounced short-wave has progressed out of the Georgia outer waters along with the bulk of remaining convection, although isolated showers along the western edge of the circulation continue to rotate down through the coastal waters, skirting the Georgia coast. Quite a bit of lower cloud cover along the northern and western edge also remains across a good portion of the forecast area, but with drier air/clearing skies slowly working in from the north. Remaining showers should pull away from the Georgia coast over the next few hours. Lower cloud cover might be a bit more problematic based on satellite trends. Sky cover and pops were tweaked to reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep layered ridging will occur Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. There will be weak cold advection on Monday as the surface high remains to the north. This will keep highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s near the coast where a decent sea breeze will develop. The surface high will shift off the coast Monday night as the upper ridge continues to build. Increasing thicknesses Tuesday into Wednesday will produce a warming trend with highs in the mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep layered ridging will continue Wednesday night through Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing. A series of shortwaves will then impact the area late Friday afternoon through early next week, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR to VFR cloud cover will persist at the terminals through the overnight, with gradual N-S clearing and return to VFR conditions by morning. VFR conditions then persist through the day Monday but with SCT to perhaps BKN "heating of the day" Cumulus develop late morning and persisting through the afternoon. Turning clear Monday evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: The cold front will push south of the southern waters this evening. Northeast winds will dominate through the night with speeds generally 15-20 kt. Observations off the lower South Carolina coast show gusts 25-27 kt, but these may be convectively driven and not necessarily representative of prevailing conditions. The gradient will tighten a bit overnight, so gusts to 25 kt could become common if the gradient tightens more than expected. Conditions were held below Small Craft Advisory levels for now. Seas will build 2-4 ft, except 3-5 ft in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore zone. Monday through Friday: Monday and Monday night, a decent NE gradient is expected as high pressure remains to the north. A few 25 kt wind gusts are possible in the coastal waters, and seas could briefly reach 6 ft over GA offshore waters. The gradient will relax by Tuesday as the surface high moves east and winds turn to the SE. A more typical summer wind pattern will set up for mid to late week with daily sea breezes along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated early this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides Monday through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180981 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight. - Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight. Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland. - A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south. Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms -Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore. A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Monday... A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY. However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week. A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay). These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal. Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday. Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday.... Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days. With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1180980 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 136 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Few nuisance showers across the interior initially and may handle with VCSH and a TEMPO group as necessary. Generally a WRLY component of wind thru the night, then gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals around 21Z on Mon, where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here. && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight. A few lingering showers will continue moving offshore, diminishing across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast to persist across the peninsula tonight, with westerly winds remaining around 5 mph. Patchy fog may develop late tonight into early Monday morning, particularly near the I-4 corridor and areas northward, but confidence in this was too low to include with the forecast. We will monitor overnight and make adjustments as needed. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal values across east central Florida tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 83 70 85 / 10 40 0 10 MCO 70 87 70 89 / 20 50 0 20 MLB 73 85 72 85 / 10 50 10 20 VRB 71 87 71 87 / 20 50 10 20 LEE 69 87 70 90 / 20 40 0 10 SFB 69 87 70 89 / 10 50 0 10 ORL 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 0 20 FPR 69 87 70 87 / 20 50 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180979 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The main weather story will continue to be the building heat through the short-term period and beyond. This is due to a mid/upper level ridge axis anchored across Mexico expanding into Texas and the remainder of the Southern Plains over the next few days. Strong subsidence and limited moisture depth will keep a rain-free forecast going. It does appear that we will have one more day on Monday where heat advisory criteria (111 degree heat indices) will be just shy of being met for most of the area. A few isolated locations will likely reach 111 heat index or just exceed it for an hour or two but not long enough or widespread enough to warrant a heat advisory at this time for Monday. Heat indices will generally peak between 105 and 110 degrees on Monday. Geocolor satellite imagery continues to depict the core of the agricultural smoke/haze over the open Gulf with the periphery of this affecting portions of our CWA. Based upon the RAP-Smoke and GEOS-5 models forecast of vertically integrated smoke and total aerosols, have decided to add haze to the weather grids through Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Key Messages: - Above normal temperatures and heat index values are expected across Deep South Texas this week and Memorial Day weekend. - The combination of above normal temperatures and humidity will yield dangerous heat index values in the 110-120 degree range during the day, and in the upper 80s to low 90s overnight. - There will be an increased risk of heat related impacts, especially those that do not take adequate breaks in the shade or stay hydrated. - Poor air quality will continue through the week for most of the region. Mid/upper level ridging centered over Mexico will maintain rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas into Memorial Day weekend. Meanwhile, persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will result in continued humid conditions at the surface. In addition to the heat and humidity, low level winds will continue to transport smoke associated with agricultural burning in southeast Mexico, which will maintain poor air quality across portions of the region. A steady increase in temperatures is expected through the week and into the weekend as the ridge continues to build, with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches, mid to upper 90s along/east of I-69, and above 100 degrees (100-106 degrees) west of I-69. In combination with the humidity, "feels like" temperatures will range from upper 90s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 112 degrees through Thursday, and closer to 114-118 degrees Friday through the weekend, across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Valley. In comparison to the early May heat wave, one notable difference is the forecast of higher minimum temperatures each night... with most of the Rio Grande Valley expected to observe low temperatures in the low 80s. In combination with the high dew points in place, there won`t be much relief from the heat overnight as "feels like" temperatures remain in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. This will result in a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts, especially towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Staying properly hydrated, limiting time spent outdoors during the peak heating of the day, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing will be necessary to prevent any heat related illnesses. Heat headlines may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday, and will likely be needed this Memorial Day weekend. Regardless of the issuance of any heat products (Heat Advisory, Excessive Heat Warning), the prolonged period of oppressive daytime and nighttime temperatures will limit the ability to recover from the heat, especially if spending several hours outside during the day. If you have any outdoor plans this weekend for Memorial Day or attending outdoor graduation ceremonies, make sure you are taking the oppressive heat into account. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Tonight through Monday night...Generally weak onshore flow will continue tonight. However 3-4 ft swells will persist but are expected to slowly decay through the short-term. Overall, this will tend to maintain a moderate risk of rip currents through tonight with a borderline moderate risk of rips on Monday. The flow will continue to veer through Monday as a more climatologically normal return flow setup establishes itself. A bit more in the way of a moderate onshore flow as a result will establish itself by Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Seas will slowly respond and build back to 4 ft overnight on Monday. Tuesday through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the weekend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will extend to the offshore Gulf waters Thursday and Friday due to increased winds and seas slightly building. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 80 94 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 100 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 77 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1180978 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 109 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 723 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Most active weather has been observed over central and eastern Palm Beach county and adjacent waters. A couple of strong cells still linger over central Palm Beach as of this issuance. The Severe Weather Watch for the Atlantic counties has been extended until 8pm tonight based on the current radar activity, although the strongest convection should remain just offshore over the Atlantic coastal waters. Can`t rule out a few evening storms, but the threat for strong convection should end after 8pm. Lows tonight will cool down a bit over the Lake region with temps around 70s, and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Scattered to numerous showers will be likely across portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a shortwave and associated surface front approach the region. Satellite imagery shows the boundary already draped across the Lake Okeechobee region, with strong to severe storms firing off across Okeechobee and St Lucie counties. As this boundary moves southward, conditions will rapidly deteriorate for areas along the Lake and for southeastern FL. Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential severe impacts, with MUCAPE > 3000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches or more which could result in damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter) with some of the stronger thunderstorms. At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave finalizes its approach, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with some of the stronger storms, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties through 7PM today. Temperatures will continue to rise across southern-most portions of the region ahead of the approaching front and associated cloud coverage. Peak apparent temperatures in the range of 105-110F are likely for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties where Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Localized areas in Palm Beach and Collier counties could also see elevated heat index values early this afternoon, but convective activity and cloud coverage should help limit heat-related impacts across those counties. The frontal boundary will slowly drift southward across our region overnight into Monday. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east) should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Frontal boundary will make it`s way into the FL Straits on Tuesday into early Wednesday before dissipating. The upper level trough axis will sit east of the area through mid week before finally starting to lift out and height rises work their way into the area. This will result in elevated PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening before shower/storm chances diminish to low end chance for mid week through next weekend, mainly confined to afternoon and early evening diurnally driven sea-breeze convection. Temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend with highs across the east coast metro in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low to mid 90s over the interior and SW FL. Low temperatures will be closer to climo through mid week ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, before increasing late week into next weekend to the low 70s around the lake and upper 70s near the coasts thanks to the flow becoming more southeasterly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the AM hours although a few showers could be possible near the SE terminals. There will be a chance of restrictions this afternoon in thunderstorms over the east coast terminals beginning around 18Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend W-SW this morning, although a shift to the E-SE will be possible along the east coast terminals this afternoon although confidence in the sea breeze is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today as a cold front drops through the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as the front pushes through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 76 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 95 74 90 73 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 90 76 / 60 40 60 40 Homestead 94 75 89 76 / 40 30 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 76 87 76 / 60 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 75 87 76 / 60 50 50 40 Pembroke Pines 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 91 72 87 73 / 60 40 40 30 Boca Raton 93 74 88 75 / 60 50 50 40 Naples 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180977 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of some localized patchy overnight fog. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday, with the exception of possible late night fog. Winds become light and variable by early this evening, then an east to southeast flow at 5 to 10 knots is expected on Monday. /29 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Dry conditions will persist tonight through Monday as deep ridging becomes reestablished across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and the upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up on Monday. Skies should be mostly clear tonight, and then partly cloudy on Monday. Light and variable winds for most locations tonight, expect for near the coast where a light offshore flow may persist. Primarily light easterly winds across most of the area on Monday, but with a slightly stronger onshore flow along the coast during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s over interior locations and from the mid/upper 60s to the lower 70s closer to and along the coast. High temperatures Monday primarily be in the upper 80s for most locations, with a few lower 90s possible over interior southeast Mississippi and in the mid 80s along the immediate coast. DS/12 SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 An eastward tilted upper level ridge has moved over the Mississippi River, with an upper level trough off the East Coast. Shortwave energy is directed south over the Southeast through the Short Term in response to this configuration, but with a drier airmass moving over the region, no rain is expected. Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected, with mid 80s to around 90 expected for high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected over most of the forecast area through the period, except for low 60s over northeastern-most portions of the forecast area. Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a low risk of rip currents into mid week. /16 LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 By Thursday, the upper ridge has shifted east a bit. It then flattens Friday into Saturday, as an upper level shortwave trough approaches and moves over the Southeast. A surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of Mexico mid week on, with organized southerly flow moving Gulf moisture inland. Guidance is becoming more consistent with the amount and placement of the moisture return. The latest guidance is placing the better moisture further north over the Southeast, and with that, keeping better PoPs for Friday and Saturday generally north of Highway 84. Have a bit better confidence with this more consistent pattern. Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms through the Extended. /16 MARINE... Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Primarily light west to northwest flow tonight through Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Thursday. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 88 67 88 68 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 70 85 69 84 70 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 71 85 70 84 72 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 87 63 88 64 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 89 64 90 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 64 86 63 88 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 64 88 63 88 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180975 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 20.May.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 For the first time in a while, we have several days without rainfall forecast. And even when we do have rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, activity may struggle to push too deeply into our area from the north. Despite that, however, things are not really quieting down here at The Bureau. Area rivers remain swollen, with roughly a dozen gages at or forecast to be in flood stage, with major flooding persisting on the Trinity River. Also, as rain chances take a break from plaguing us, it will be spelled by early summer heat, and temperatures may find themselves firmly into the range of full summer. Some key things to remember about the week ahead: - Major flooding continues on the Trinity River, moderate flooding on the East Fork San Jacinto, and minor flooding on other area rivers and streams. Please continue to heed the advice of local officials, and try to avoid flooded areas as possible. - Expect heat to build through the week, as we may see highs begin to push towards the mid-90s and peak heat index values around 105 degrees towards the end of the week. Though not rising to the level of our heat advisory threshold, this is still strong early heat, and it will be important to practice heat safety as we acclimate to summer conditions. This is particularly important for any remaining areas with significant power outages, as it will be difficult to find respite in air conditioned locations. - The "sneakier" avenue of heat will also be on the scene this week, with warm temperatures overnight. After Monday morning, it will be difficult for anywhere in the area to fall below 70 degrees, and later in the week, lows only in the upper half of the 70s are expected to expand out from the Gulf coast to become widespread. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 A weak shortwave at 700mb coupled with onshore flow has led to a scattering of cumulus clouds across SE Texas this afternoon. These won`t amount to anything more than little cotton ball clouds as WV imagery reveals a pretty bone-dry airmass and subsidence from high pressure will suppress vertical growth. Tonight will feature pretty mild and humid weather as lows loom in the 70s for most of the area. Locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley may dip into the upper 60s. With low-levels/surface allowed to dry out more today, this should keep fog development a little more sparse tonight into Monday morning. Patchy fog may still be possible across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Monday will feature another day of benign weather, and this meteorologist is pretty thankful for that! The warming trend will continue as the work week kicks off. Highs for Monday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. One thing to bear in mind, that while the weather will feature beautiful sunny skies and warm temperatures, the increasing humidity combined with increasing temperatures will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s approaching 100F... Breezier winds may provide some relief from the rising temperatures tomorrow. A shortwave trough will push through the Great Plains and generate an area of low pressure. This area of low pressure will deepen and swing eastward which will lead to a tightening pressure gradient and consequently increasing winds. Monday night`s lows will provide little relief from the daytime heat as temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s with a muggy feel. This will be the beginning of the warm trend that will continue through the long-term period. Echoing the words of the previous forecaster: Please take precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from the heat. Make sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 There is not a lot in the way of PoPs even in the long term, so let`s just get our chat about that out of the way. Our traditional summertime subtropical ridge is trying to work its way into the picture - hence the lack of PoPs - but it is not yet dominant, with an active northern stream shooting a near continuous string of upper troughs through, beating back the ridge. Since they`re only blunting the ridge, I`d expect the impact to our area will generally be minimal but this is the time of year where we still have to watch developing convective complexes warily. A sufficiently developed complex could alter the mesoscale environment enough to persist into parts of Southeast Texas, even though the models insist they will all die out before arriving. Right now, the best days I see for that are Wednesday and Thursday evenings, when a trough running through the subtropical jet stream may phase up well with a more significant northern stream trough. Even then, however, I still only bring slight chance to chance PoPs to the northernmost stretch of our area, roughly from Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin northwestward. Beyond that, the big story is the emerging summertime conditions, particularly by next weekend. The NAEFS ensemble mean has 850 mb temps generally over the 90th percentile (and occasionally higher, like Monday and Tuesday nights), and by the weekend, consistently topping the 97.5th percentile. The Euro ensemble mean 850 temps are right in the same ballpark, though perhaps just a touch lower for the weekend...but only in the sense that large swaths of the area see things reach the 97.5th percentile, instead of most/all of the area. In exploring potential alternate scenarios, I checked out our multi-model ensemble clustering tool. And...well...it wasn`t very interesting. The top cluster was consistently very near the multi-ensemble mean for high temps, and only sporadically in lower clusters showed spotty deviation slightly up or down. Ultimately, I am seeing pretty high confidence that we`ll see some typically full summertime conditions going into the Memorial Day weekend. What do I mean by "full summertime"? I`m looking at temperatures rising into the 90s area-wide, with a number of places pushing into the middle 90s. Combine that with Gulf Coast humidity, and this will bring us to heat index values peaking out around 105 degrees. These kinds of numbers would be perfectly in place in July and August, but it is a bit on the high side for late May. We`re not quite at the point where we`d need heat advisories, but it is kinda close, it`s a holiday weekend, and a number of people may still be without power due to last Thursday`s storms as a complicating factor. On top of that, things don`t get any better at night. With persistent onshore flow, high dewpoints will be the overnight temperature floor elevated. After Monday night, we`ll struggle to see anywhere in the area fall below 70 degrees, and deep into the week, lows in the middle to upper 70s will spread outward from the Gulf Coast to swallow much of the area. This will be particularly important if getting into air conditioned places overnight is a challenge, since being unable to find times to shed the accumulation of heat stress creates a more dangerous situation for heat illness/injury. Heat stress also tends to have greater impacts in a largely unacclimated population, which we may see with this first big outdoor holiday weekend of the summer. Should numbers drift any higher, advisories are something we might need to give more serious thought to. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected through Mon evening. There is the chance for MVFR cigs early in the morning along with the development of patchy fog over portions of SE TX, but is expected to lift and disperse near sunrise. Light SE winds through around 14Z, strengthening to around 10 KTS thereafter. Winds are expected to stay elevated through Mon night. MVFR cigs are expected to develop Mon night into early Tue. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Though still drifting back to being more ESE at times, generally southeasterly winds are coming to prevail across the area today, and this onshore flow can be expected to persist through the week, generally around 15 knots across the waters. While most of the time this will be in the 10-15 knot range, at times they will drift upwards into the 15-20 knot range, and occasionally prompt stretches of caution flags. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Updated at 313 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, Brazos, and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Sunday morning): MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River, Liberty - Trinity River, Goodrich MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River, Riverside - Trinity River, Moss Bluff - East Fork San Jacinto, New Caney MINOR// ------- - Menard Creek, Rye - Lake Creek, Sendera Ranch Rd. - West Fork San Jacinto, Humble - Navasota River, Normangee - Brazos River, Rosharon - Brazos River, Richmond (forecast) - Brazos River, Sugar Land (forecast) - Brazos River, West Columbia (forecast) Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. Batiste/Luchs && .CLIMATE... Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Still amazed with how much rain parts of our northern counties have received so far this year. Through May 17th, Huntsville`s (UTS) 50.14 inches was 35.01 inches above normal and was the wettest on record start to the year (previous record was 22.37 inches in 2004). Huntsville`s records date back to 4/1/1998. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 71 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 83 77 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180973 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1244 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... No big changes with the latest update. Main near term concern is the threat for low clouds moving in from the northeast through around daybreak. Low-level winds should remain a bit too strong for much fog but can`t rule out some, mainly in sheltered rural locales. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening, mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday. Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs averaging in the mid/upr 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR to start the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period with high pressure in control, although some low-level moisture will be present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially at KILM around daybreak. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue. Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than 10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180972 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1140 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Generally a quite pattern has evolved for our local CWFA. Aloft, a dry northwesterly flow around the eastern periphery of a 594dam high over Mexico will remain across our region through the short term period. At the surface a high pressure will continue to rule the overall surface pattern with light and variable winds. Skies should remain on the clear side. This could again generate some shallow radiation fog tonight with calm winds and clear skies. SREF guidance is pinging the best potential along the Atchafalaya late tonight or around sunrise on Monday. Kept patchy fog in the grids for now. This should lift pretty rapidly after sunrise. The main story here will be temperatures. As high pressure begins to move east a weak onshore flow will initiate allowing temperatures to be slightly cooler right along the immediate coast...at least cooler than today with a weak northerly flow over our region limiting impacts from the cooler shelf waters. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Tuesday the southerly return flow will be more noticeable. Again, this should moderate temperatures right along the immediate coast with the interaction of the cooler SSTs. However, inland will be a few degrees warmer with most locations ending up in the upper 80s or even perhaps lower 90s. Aloft, the upper ridge mentioned in the short term portion will spread northeast toward the Rio Grande Valley. There will be upper level ridging along the Texas coast and spreading into our region, however, the heights are just a bit lower than previously advertised so temps were knocked down a degree or two from previous higher forecasts. That said, it will still be a warm week ahead with temperatures warming into the middle and upper 80s each day with perhaps the warmer locations such as Baton Rouge reaching the 90F mark each afternoon. By Thursday a weak frontal boundary tries to move southward but stalls to our north across the midsouth region. There will be an upper level impulse overhead and with a more rich boundary layer from a few days of return flow. Think the rain chances will be nonzero, especially across interior southwest MS closer to the front and best upper level dynamics. But largely most of the region appears to be dry with the best QPF signal along and north of the I20 corridor. Going into late week and into the weekend a warming trend is progged by the guidance as upper level heights again try to increase with the upper high strengthening to around 595dam over Deep South Texas. If this does, indeed, occur many across our forecast area will see their warmest temperatures of the season late this week and especially into the next weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don`t see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight. These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening. Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions s hould improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren`t expected to provide any significant restrictions either. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region early this week. This will lead to favorable marine conditions through the forecast period. High pressure will begin to exit the region allowing for southerly winds to take shape, but winds should remain at and mostly below 15kts through the week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 69 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 73 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 67 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180971 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1012 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 There`s no more putting it off, we`re settling in to a typically South Texas summer pattern. Mid-level ridging has built into the region and will hold strong through the short term. This along with surface ridging over the Southeast US spells warm and humid for us here in South Texas. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s area wide, with upper 70s to near 80 east. High temperatures Monday are forecast above 100 degrees for the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush country with mainly 90s for the rest of the area. Considering the high dewpoints (upper 70s east) and it being early season, this will mean an elevated concern for heat related illness, especially for those especially susceptible to the high heat. No mentionable rain chances are in place, but given the high humidity and moisture convergence near the coast, can`t rule out a morning streamer shower or sprinkle on Monday. In addition, the haze will likely stick around through the early part of the week, and tomorrow could be combined with some fog, especially in the northern coastal bend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the week Upper level ridging and persistent onshore flow will allow for temperatures to reach dangerous levels through the week. High temperatures will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices will climb through the week. Tuesday through Thursday will feature afternoon heat indices in the 110-114 range. By Friday, we begin to see heat indices of 115- 120 enter into the forecast for the Southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country. As a result, we will see a major to extreme risk of heat- related impacts through the long term period. Heat Advisories will be likely each day through the middle of the week with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the work week. Other than the heat in the long term, the ridge axis will nudge east by the middle of the week. Several shortwaves will rotate through the southwest flow aloft as a boundary stalls north of the region. The greatest chances for showers/storms will likely remain well north of the region. Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the this TAF cycle. Some brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected tonight at ALI and VCT due to a low chance of patchy fog developing tonight. Any site that drops to MVFR should return to VFR by tomorrow morning. Winds will also pick up tomorrow and be gusty at times, especially late in the afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected tonight through Tuesday Onshore flow then become more moderate by Tuesday night, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 77 93 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 73 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 88 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 100 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 76 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180970 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 20.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Winds are on a downward trend after a surge developed in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds quickly clocked around from the southwest, becoming west to northwest and reaching sustained speeds of around 15 knots. Within the last hour these winds are quickly coming down and boxing around the compass again. Convection that was out across the southeast Gulf of Mexico dissipated well before it got to our waters. Meanwhile, convection is blossoming along an outflow boundary from prior showers and thunderstorms that develop along the north coast of Cuba. These showers and thunderstorms have entered the Straits of Florida between the Marathon Humps and Cay Sal Bank. This current activity is trekking north to northeast. Going through the overnight, additional convection is possible given how many ghost boundaries are out there. Where and which ones will light up remains questionable. Hi-res CAMs suggest that an outflow boundary moving northwest from the convection centered near Cay Sal Bank will have the "best" potential of triggering new convection. It remains to be seen how far northwest it will get and if it will stall across the island chain overnight. For now will maintain 40 percent PoPs given the uncertainties listed above. Nonetheless, tonight through Tuesday morning will be the best period to see accumulating rain in the past 2 weeks. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The western extent of a low-level ridge axis that extends west-northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the Florida Keys. At the same time a frontal boundary is sliding south across the Florida Peninsula, which has shifted breezes from the northwest. These breezes will briefly go light and variable overnight before becoming south to southwest by Monday morning. Lastly, there may be a break in the rain-free conditions tonight through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for now. Watching for the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop along remnant boundaries. Given uncertainty on the placement of individual boundaries and which boundaries will trigger convection, will at least maintain mentions of VCSH but have omitted TS for a later update. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180969 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The forecast is in great shape, so no changes to the forecast are forthcoming. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 An upper level trough continues to exit south GA this afternoon. Some showers have started to pop up with this low and may continue into the evening before dying out after sunset. Then mainly dry conditions continue into Monday. Temps tonight generally fall into the mid 60s, and then warm into the low to mid 80s in our GA and AL counties, and in the mid to upper 80s in our FL counties. A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 While deep layer ridging builds in Monday night through Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an attendant shortwave are close enough on Tuesday to keep a low chance of a shower or rumble of thunder in the afternoon forecast for the far Southeast FL Big Bend. Otherwise for the remainder of the region and timeframe, dry weather is expected. Highs on Tuesday in the mid-80s to about 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid- level southerly flow getting underway by Thursday. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase midweek. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as the seabreeze pools limited moisture and instability on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, mainly in the FL counties, but subsidence from the ridge should limit this potential with PoPs NIL for now. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. In fact, some models hint at a potential MCS just to our north. If this materializes, it will be watched to see if it propagates further south into our region on either Friday or Saturday. For now, PoPs are NIL on Friday with 20-30% PoPs on Saturday. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period. With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm to the upper 80s-lower 90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conds prevail until after midnight when low stratus spreads from NE to SW, likely impacting VLD/ABY and perhaps TLH. Have MVFR to IFR cigs at those sites as soon as 7Z before improving mid- late morning. Confidence is highest at VLD. Winds turn NE at 5-7 kts tmrw. && .MARINE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Despite only 6-knot breezes at Buoy 42036, distant winds over the southern Gulf and western Caribbean are leading to southerly waves of 4 feet at 8 seconds. From CWF synopsis...Gentle northwest breezes this evening will clock around to the northeast on Monday as high pressure bridges down the Atlantic coastal plain and across the northeast Gulf. This pattern will favor a couple of nocturnal surges in winds both Monday night and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, winds become more southerly. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet through Monday, then decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through Friday, with the exception of higher seas up to around 3 feet in due to the nocturnal surges Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected over the next few days, with the potential for high dispersions being the main fire weather concerns. Tuesday, areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers may have high dispersions and on Wednesday SE AL and the W FL Panhandle. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week. Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend. Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will rise into minor flood stage by Monday. Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week. Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 86 65 88 / 10 10 0 0 Panama City 68 87 68 86 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 65 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 84 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 85 63 87 / 20 10 0 10 Cross City 66 86 62 88 / 20 30 10 20 Apalachicola 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180968 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 20.May.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 954 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist through most of this week. A series of upper level disturbances will impact the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... No major changes were made for the late evening update. The front will continue to meander south this evening and should be south of the Altamaha River by an hour or so after midnight. Near term pops were adjusted to reflect current radar trends with 20-30% pops clustered near and south of the front. Most of the area has been solidly worked over, but an isolated tstm or two could still occur until the vorticity maximum noted just offshore pulls farther away. Drier air will slowly advect in from the north through the night. Lows will range from the lower 60s inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep layered ridging will occur Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. There will be weak cold advection on Monday as the surface high remains to the north. This will keep highs in the lower 80s, except upper 70s near the coast where a decent sea breeze will develop. The surface high will shift off the coast Monday night as the upper ridge continues to build. Increasing thicknesses Tuesday into Wednesday will produce a warming trend with highs in the mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep layered ridging will continue Wednesday night through Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing. A series of shortwaves will then impact the area late Friday afternoon through early next week, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 20/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstm impacts have ended. A few showers will meander around KSAV through about 01z until the front clears that terminal. MVFR cigs will prevail at all terminals this evening with cigs slowly mixing out to VFR after midnight. VFR will then dominate through 00z Tuesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: The cold front will push south of the southern waters this evening. Northeast winds will dominate through the night with speeds generally 15-20 kt. Observations off the lower South Carolina coast show gusts 25-27 kt, but these may be convectively driven and not necessarily representative of prevailing conditions. The gradient will tighten a bit overnight, so gusts to 25 kt could become common if the gradient tightens more than expected. Conditions were held below Small Craft Advisory levels for now. Seas will build 2-4 ft, except 3-5 ft in the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore zone. Monday through Friday: Monday and Monday night, a decent NE gradient is expected as high pressure remains to the north. A few 25 kt wind gusts are possible in the coastal waters, and seas could briefly reach 6 ft over GA offshore waters. The gradient will relax by Tuesday as the surface high moves east and winds turn to the SE. A more typical summer wind pattern will set up for mid to late week with daily sea breezes along the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of rising astronomical tides with the upcoming Full Moon and moderate NE winds will cause tides to be elevated early this week. Minor flooding is possible with the evening high tides Monday through Wednesday along the South Carolina coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180967 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 949 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until Friday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Cancelled the CFW for downtown Wilmington a little early as the river level dropped below 5.5ft. Cloud cover continues to break up and lift as somewhat drier air moves in from the northeast. Wind overnight will keep fog from being a concern. No major changes needed for evening update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening, mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday. Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs averaging in the mid/upr 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low stratus has been slowly lifting and dissipating the last few hours. This trend will continue and only MYR is reporting MVFR ceilings. MYR should rise to VFR within the next hour and VFR is expected at all sites overnight. There is low chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings developing around daybreak, given low level moisture, but the relatively short duration of night this time of year decreases the potential. There will be too much wind/mixing overnight for fog. Northeast winds continue Monday as high pressure builds down the coast with VFR conditions prevailing. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue. Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than 10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC....Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180965 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 20.May.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 937 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The coastal storm that has brought low clouds, drizzle and cool northeast winds to RI and eastern MA, finally begins to exit out to sea tonight. This gives way to a significant pattern shift to drier and warmer weather beginning Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures reaching into the 80s, with an outside chance a few locations see 90 degrees on Wednesday. Humidity levels will be on the low side accompanying that midweek warmth, hence, a somewhat dry heat. A cold front arrives on Thursday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A more seasonable air mass then filters in for late in the week into at least the early part of Memorial Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update: Drizzle and stratus continue across eastern MA and RI with a few heavier showers scattered within the shield of drizzle. In stark comparison to the eastern half of the CWA, the CT River Valley has broken out into clear conditions, with temperatures still mild, in the 60s! As temperatures cool overnight, expecting stratus/fog to back from the east into areas like Hartford and Springfield, before conditions improve later tomorrow. 3 PM Update: Low level moist onshore jet continues to deliver overcast conditions and some spotty drizzle across RI and eastern MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. Meanwhile, breaks in the overcast are occurring across CT into MA, eastward into the Worcester Hills. Temps are responding to the strong May sunshine, with temps warming through the 60s there and a few low 70s, including 71 at BDL currently. Meanwhile, short wave energy traversing southward from the ME coast will continue to delay height rises from advancing eastward today. This also results in a nearly stationary low level ENE jet into eastern MA and RI, with the low level jet slowly shifting southward overnight, along with ridge of high pressure advecting south into SNE. Thus, drier trends overnight. However, low level moisture will likely remained trapped beneath the subsidence inversion from the surface ridge building southward. Hence, low clouds will remain stubborn across RI and eastern MA tonight and likely drifting back into CT and western/central MA, along with patchy fog possible. This low level moisture will yield seasonably cool temps overnight, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Although, it will feel cooler with northeast winds 15-25 mph, highest over southeast MA and RI, slowly slackening tonight as the surface ridge builds southward. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 3 PM update... * Big improvement, more sunshine & warmer temperatures * Low 80s possible CT River Valley, including Hartford/Springfield Monday... Once short wave energy exits the eastern MA coast tonight, this allows height rises to advect Monday across the region from west to east and more importantly, low level jet easing and moving offshore. This ridging and associated subsidence will allow strong May sunshine to erode low level moisture/clouds and possible patchy fog Monday morning and give way to at least partial afternoon sunshine to the entire region. 12z models have trended warmer and this seems reasonable given the height rises and morning clouds giving way to at least partial late May sunshine. 850 mb temps increase to about +12C and 925 mb temps warm to +18C to +20C western MA, to +13C across southeast MA. This will support highs in the low 80s across western MA/CT, with much of the region seeing highs in the 70s and as far southeast into the I-95 corridor of MA/RI. With surface ridge over the area, afternoon seabreezes will develop and cap highs in the 60s for the coastline, possibly only into the upper 50s for the outer Cape and Nantucket. Monday night... Deep layer ridge over SNE will provide dry weather. Light winds and dew pts slightly above normal (low 50s), may yield patchy fog. This will also result in mild overnight temps, with lows 50-55. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... No big changes here, a warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with the chance for this summer-like warmth to continue on Thursday. A cold front moves across the region on Thursday, perhaps bringing a few stronger storms. Mixed signal heading into next weekend as the deterministic guidance remains split over a dry or semi-wet weekend. An anomolously warm air mass, driven by a modest mid-level ridge, is expected to linger over much of New England into Thursday, leading to well above normal surface temperatures. Global guidance suggests 850mb temperatures are +6C to +11C above what is normal over the course of those three days. The ridge does break down late Thursday into Friday a mid-level trough swings through. Tuesday afternoon there are high probabilities, greater than 80% for temperatures AOA 85 degrees, locations like Hartford, Springfield, Worcester, and Lowell. Many spots across the interior top out between 85F-89F, while closer to the coast a southwest wind keeps locations south of Providence/Taunton/Plymouth in the 70s, though the immediate coastline in the upper 60s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with a large portion of northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and much of Massachusetts (outside of southeast MA) with greater than 80% probabilities of afternoon temperatures AOA 85 degrees. It is not out of the question we have a few spots pushing 90 degrees, places in the Merrimack and CT River Valley have a greater than 70% chance. While less likely, there are even low probabilities of temperatures at or above 95F, around 40% in the Merrimack Valley. Thursday, the maximum temperatures will really depend on what time a cold front moves through and how much cold cover develops. Given the uncertainties, continues with NBM guidance, highs likely reach back into the middle 80s away from the coast. Temperatures turning more seasonable with highs in the 70 for Friday into next weekend. Much of this week is dry, the mid-level ridge does support a drier pattern. Not out of the question there could be a rouge afternoon shower/thunderstorm mainly areas northwest Massachusetts, but the better chance for showers is Thursday. Guidance is in pretty fair agreement a cold front moves across the region with the potential for thunderstorms - whether or not they are severe is still to be seen, but there are signs that the atmosphere could be favorable with modest CAPE, 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40 kts. Based off the previous deterministic run, the CSU machine learning have 5% to 15% of severe weather, something to monitor as we head into this week. Drying out on Friday, but there remains uncertainty with this upcoming weekend whether or not we see rain or not. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight...Moderate confidence in CIGS, low confidence in VSBY. Rather complex forecast overnight, in general ceilings fall to IFR with isolated areas of LIFR. Where confidence is lower are areas in northern Connecticut and western Massachusetts where drier air is eroding cloud cover. Though, the thought is the clouds across Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts expand westward. Area of fog and drizzle pushed into eastern MA with visibilities 1-3SM, high-res guidance suggests this may lower to less than 1SM before briefly improving between 02z-05z to 2-4SM. After 05z/06z visibilities remain down 1SM or less for the rest of the overnight hours. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots ease overnight, becoming light and less than 5 knots. Monday...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR cigs with patchy fog early, will slowly improve to VFR all terminals, but delayed until the afternoon or late in the day across Cape Cod and the Islands. Light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...Moderate confidence. VFR but MVFR vsbys developing in patchy fog. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends but lower confidence in visibilities. IFR/LIFR cigs with IFR to MVFR vsby into Monday morning, improving to VFR by Monday afternoon. NE winds tonight, becoming east Monday and then southeast late in the day. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends but lower on exact timing. VFR continues into early evening, then some uncertainty how low cigs and vsbys overnight into Monday morning, as low clouds and patchy fog develop overnight. High confidence in improving conditions Monday to VFR by midday or so. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 3 PM update... Tonight...high confidence. Offshore low continues to generate marginal SCA with NE winds up to 25 kt (in gusts, not sustained) and seas up to 6 ft across the eastern MA waters, slowly subside tonight. Vsby may be reduced to 1- 3 miles at times in drizzle and fog. Monday... High confidence Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day. Monday night...high confidence. Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254. && $$ |
| #1180964 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 922 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight. A few lingering showers will continue moving offshore, diminishing across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast to persist across the peninsula tonight, with westerly winds remaining around 5 mph. Patchy fog may develop late tonight into early Monday morning, particularly near the I-4 corridor and areas northward, but confidence in this was too low to include with the forecast. We will monitor overnight and make adjustments as needed. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal values across east central Florida tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions forecast across all terminals overnight. Lingering VCTS near SUA will diminish by 01Z, with dry conditions elsewhere. Westerly winds overnight around 5 knots will pick up around 15Z out of the north-northwest around 10 knots. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots will be possible Monday afternoon, and VCSH cannot be ruled out across the interior terminals (MCO/ISM/SFB) and along the coast from TIX southward. Higher confidence in VCTS across the Treasure Coast terminals after 17Z. Conditions are forecast to improve after 22Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 82 70 84 / 30 30 20 40 MCO 72 88 70 87 / 20 30 10 50 MLB 70 87 72 85 / 40 30 20 50 VRB 70 90 70 87 / 50 30 30 50 LEE 72 87 69 87 / 20 30 10 50 SFB 71 87 70 87 / 20 30 10 50 ORL 72 88 70 87 / 20 30 10 50 FPR 69 90 69 87 / 50 30 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180963 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 843 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Another afternoon of very limited convection in our area. The lack of moisture was the main culprit and this evening`s sounding confirmed it. The dry air mostly aloft today, is forecast to spread down to the surface through the week with critically low humidities. Though there is a non-zero chance of a shower of two to develop across southern portions of our CWA, most of should remain dry. In addition, breezy west to northwesterly winds are anticipated by Monday afternoon. Overnight lows range from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south, while highs get to around 90 degrees. Otherwise, no changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period across terminals. South to southwesterly winds are expected to become gusty and shift from the northwest into the afternoon on Monday. Lingering front over southern portions of the state could bring isolated storms in the afternoon mainly to FMY/RSW, but the rest of the TAF site should remain dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 88 72 90 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 76 91 72 92 / 30 30 10 30 GIF 72 90 70 90 / 20 30 10 40 SRQ 75 89 71 91 / 20 10 10 20 BKV 68 89 65 91 / 10 20 0 30 SPG 78 88 76 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180962 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 20.May.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 818 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight. - Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight. Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland. - A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations. Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south. Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: -A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms -Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore. A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Sunday... Most areas have improved to VFR this evening as some drier air moves in aloft. MVFR stratus continues for the areas around ORF and ECG. Will maintain prevailing MVFR in these areas despite some guidance showing a short period where scattering out is possible. Winds are generally onshore (NE-E-SE) 5-10 kt but are expected to become light and variable away from the coast by mid evening. Guidance shows the potential for widespread fog in the Piedmont and extensive IFR CIGs near the coast tonight. RIC will be tricky on which will dominate but IFR looks likely either way. Fog and stratus will mix out inland on Monday morning but MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger near the coast. Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas. - Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week. A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay). These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal. Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday. Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period. A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday.... Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days. With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658. && $$ |
| #1180961 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 819 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Sunday...The forecast remains on track with no notable changes made with the evening update. Previous Discussion...As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards into the Carolinas in the wake of a S`ward moving cold front with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and a second mid level low currently moving south across portions of SE Georgia this afternoon. Both lows and cold front should continue to pull away from ENC this evening as high pressure ridging continues to build S`wards keeping the area dry outside of a stray shower or two along the Crystal Coast. Given the close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across the FA. As a result, highs have only gotten into the 60s to low 70s today across the region bringing a rather brisk end to the weekend. As we get into tonight, upper level trough is forecast to push further offshore while upper ridging builds in from the west. At the same time associated mid level shortwaves continue to pull further away from the region. This will allow high pressure ridging to further entrench itself across the Carolinas tonight resulting in some dry air finally beginning to overspread the area. Some reduction in cloud cover is forecast especially across the Coastal Plain early this evening with portions of our western CWA potentially seeing partly to mo clear skies for a brief period of time tonight. However as we near daybreak continued NE`rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again overspread much if not all of ENC by daybreak. There remains some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast for now but will have to monitor trends as the evening progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on continued NE`rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/... As of 7:45 PM Sunday...Cloud cover is diminishing and all TAF sites are finally back to VFR. Far eastern terminals, however, are holding onto MVFR ceilings. The majority of the coastal plain is expected to remain VFR until early tomorrow morning. Low-level cloud cover will increase from E to W early Monday morning as gusty northeasterly winds pump in moisture from the Atlantic. How far inland these low clouds spread is the main question. The expectation is for ceilings along the OBX to remain MVFR through the overnight hours tonight, spreading westward through ~12Z tomorrow morning. Eastern terminals (EWN and OAJ) have the best chance at seeing MVFR ceilings while western terminals (PGV and ISO) should remain VFR. Cloud cover will diminish as it retreats eastward through the day tomorrow, but it`s very possible that the OBX will be stuck with MVFR ceilings through the day. Confidence in fog was not high enough to include in the TAFs. Some patchy fog development is possible, especially given the widespread rainfall we received yesterday, but dense fog is not expected areawide. The best chance for fog development would be for far western terminals (PGV and ISO) where cloud cover will be the most scarce and winds have the best chance of decoupling. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and southern coastal waters SCA`s that are out. Otherwise general trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday continued NE`rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while seas remain around 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1180960 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 20.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 806 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Outflow boundary that originated in SE GA has pushed into NE FL extending from coastal Duval County through the northern Suwannee Valley this early evening. The outflow will continue to push southward this evening with surface cool front lagging behind north of the Altamaha River Basin. Most residual and isolated convection remains along and ahead of the outflow boundary. The cool front is expected to push through most of the forecast region during the overnight hours. The convection mainly be isolated to widely scattered over north central FL the remaining daylight hours, become isolated during the mid to late evening. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon. Main concern for any storms which do develop will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, as DCAPE values hover around the 1000 J/kg range. Activity will shift towards the coast during the early evening hours. Isolated Coastal showers will linger through the overnight hours over the SE GA coast, with some activity possible during the pre-dawn morning hours along the coast in NE FL. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for inland locations, with coastal locations hovering near the 70 mark. Current forecast has these trends well in hand with only minor and subtle changes to the POPS to mirror the forecast convective chances over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Winds will die down in the evening hours, with skies becoming mostly clear inland. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60`s staying in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Tuesday, weather will be similar to monday just a bit drier, causing lower chances of 20-40% for storms and precipitation for NE FL in the morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure continues to build into the area Wednesday with an upper level ridge moving in from the west. Expect mostly clear skies for the rest of the week, becoming partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Models show the next best chance for rain will be over the weekend in the afternoon and evening high pressure wedges down the east coast Monday with an upper level trough in place. Onshore flow will allow the sea-breeze to make itself well inland, pulling some PWAT values of 1-1.4" along with it. Rain and storm potential will be between 25-45% in the morning along the coast and inland to the 301 corridor, increasing inland for NE FL to 50-60%. Chances drop below 10% after sunset. Partly cloudy skies and onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s area wide with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.hours as PWAT values increase to 1.5"+ and an upper level trough moves into the area. Temperatures will slowly climb into the 90s by Thursday and stay through the weekend with overnight temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Outflow boundary is moving from I-10 corridor to north central FL the next hour with possible VCTS near KGNV thru 01z. The rest of the evening VFR conditions will persist with a northerly to northeasterly flow. Through the remaining daylight hours winds will be out of the north-northeast at 8 to 11 knots with some higher gusts after the passage of the outflow. After sundown, winds will become northeast at 4 to 6 knots through the nocturnal hours, with northeasterly winds picking up at 10 to 15 knots after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected the rest of the evening and overnight hours. VCSH cannot be ruled out for KSSI during around sunrise and for coastal NE FL terminals after sunrise tomorrow with a shower or two moving inland from the adjacent Atlantic. Higher confidence in VCTS across First Coast terminals after 17Z with sea breeze making its way inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A slow moving cold front will continue to drift southward over the coastal waters through the afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the coming hours into the evening. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Breezy flow from the north- northeast overnight into Monday behind the cold front. Wind speeds will be near small craft advisory levels over the southeast Georgia waters Monday morning. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week. Rip Currents:Low risk of Rip Currents for the remainder of the day for all area beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for NE FL and SE GA beaches Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 65 84 63 / 80 10 10 0 SSI 86 69 80 70 / 60 20 10 0 JAX 89 67 81 66 / 30 20 30 0 SGJ 89 68 81 69 / 40 30 30 10 GNV 87 67 83 62 / 20 10 50 0 OCF 87 68 86 65 / 20 10 50 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180957 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 751 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening, mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday. Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs averaging in the mid/upr 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low stratus has been slowly lifting and dissipating the last few hours. This trend will continue and only MYR is reporting MVFR ceilings. MYR should rise to VFR within the next hour and VFR is expected at all sites overnight. There is low chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings developing around daybreak, given low level moisture, but the relatively short duration of night this time of year decreases the potential. There will be too much wind/mixing overnight for fog. Northeast winds continue Monday as high pressure builds down the coast with VFR conditions prevailing. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue. Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than 10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
