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| #1232789 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 31.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A large surface low continues to lift northeastward through New England. This has kept the western flank of the Atlantic ridge weak and depressed southward across Cuba, setting up light broadly westerly flow in the Keys. The lower through upper level flow has transitioned to slightly cyclonic, having fallen just within the circulation of the sprawling low over the northeast. The lower to mid level ridge is also pushed southward across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This has contributed to deep layered moisture climbing slightly above normal with this evenings sounding indicating a precipitable water of 1.67 inches and weak to no inhibition. With that said, there is still a good amount of dry air through the lower and mid levels. The combination of the dry air and an earlier outflow boundary sweeping southward through the Keys has contributed to the lack of convection across the Keys this evening. While the surface low will continue to pull further away from the Keys, the Atlantic ridge will remain off to the south. This will keep winds light and broadly out of the southwest to west. A broad zone of lower level confluence is congealing across our region. This along with cyclonic flow through the mid and upper levels is setting the stage for increasing shower and thunder potential. For the time being, drier air, still weak confluence, and poor surface kinematics will hold convective potential down for the overnight period. Expect seasonal lows in the lower 80s and dew points holding in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A large low pressure system lifting northeastward through New England will keep the western flank of the Atlantic ridge suppressed to the south across Cuba and a loose pressure field in the Keys. As a result, surface winds will be light out of the southwest to west. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight period. Surface winds will be light and broadly out of the west. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232788 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1034 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Troughing will continue over the Carolinas this afternoon as another cold front approaches. The front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore late next week, increasing moisture and rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 2200 Saturday...The first prefrontal trough and associated convection continues to push further offshore to the E with weaker secondary prefrontal trough working through SWern zones currently. Cold front currently draped along the the NC/VA border will sink through the FA after midnight tonight. Winds generally Werly between the SFC troughs ahead of the front with Nerly winds to follow FROPA with some crisp CAA taking place through the rest of the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid 50s over the coastal plain to low 60s along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sat...Pleasant conditions persist tomorrow with cooler high pressure over the region. Expect highs mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Afternoon moisture return over SC and interior NC will ooze eastward towards ENC late in the day, and some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the western coastal plain as moisture and instability increases. Will need to monitor for the potential of a late day/evening severe threat if instability develops as advertised, as there will be ample deep layer shear present and approaching mid level support. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Thursday highs are expected to be near 90 inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. Friday high pressure offshore will help funnel gulf moisture ahead of a trough moving through Saturday. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/... As of 1940 Saturday...VFR flights save for low end chance for subVFR directly underneath convection. Gusty Werly winds through this evening until cold front sinks through FA after midnight, turning winds Nerly with stark drying. VFR prevails with light and var winds until the afternoon when FEW to SCT diurnal CU develops with more S-SWerly winds AoB 10kt. Clouds and shower chances increase from W to E after the end of this TAF cycle. LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2230 Saturday... # --- UPDATE --- # Have extended active SCA for PamSound a few more hours to account for gusts around 25-30kt expected to linger for a few more hours until FROPA. Previous Disco... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions continue through tonight - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Small craft conditions continue across the coastal waters as SW winds remain 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Winds will strengthen slightly through the rest of the afternoon and then begin to decrease after sunset as a secondary cold front moves through the region. By early tomorrow morning winds will become NW at 10-15 kts, and will then continue to subside the rest of tomorrow morning. A weak sea breeze will develop tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming S at 5-10 kts. Seas will be 4-6 ft through early tonight, and then subside to 2-4 ft tomorrow. LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday night into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232786 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1019 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Late this evening: Skies remain mostly clear and very quiet conditions will continue through the overnight. Lows are forecast to fall into the low 60s inland of the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, the region will remain along the southern periphery of a broad longwave trough extending across the East CONUS Sunday, before a notable h5 shortwave rounds its southwestern edge and approaches the Southeast United States, but likely tracks just south of the local area Monday, then far offshore Tuesday. Mid- lvl ridging then takes place on Tuesday, with its axis developing across the Carolinas. At the sfc, high pressure will slowly build across the region Sunday, then persist through Tuesday, in wake a front positioned well offshore and south of the region. The presence of the high and northwest downslope wind aloft will likely maintain dry conditions for most areas Sunday through Tuesday, with model soundings also indicating a fairly large amount of dry air in the low-mid lvls locally. However, there appears to be a slight chance for a shower and/or thunderstorm Monday afternoon, mainly along a sea breeze circulation across Southeast South Carolina when peak h5 vort energy traverses near the area. The presence of a the dry downslope pattern along with ridging taking place by Tuesday suggests a warming trend early week, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s Sunday, peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. Strong radiational cooling nights under clear skies and light/calm winds should favor lows in the low- mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will prevail over the Southeast United States mid-week, likely remaining in control of the weather pattern through early Thursday, before beginning to shift offshore Friday while h5 shortwave energy advances across the Deep South. At the sfc, high pressure stretched across the western Atlantic and across the Southeast will favor an onshore flow, ushering moisture into the local area through late week. The combination of increasing low-lvl moisture, abundant sfc heating, and approaching mid-lvl energy should yield diurnal convection (showers and thunderstorms) as early as Thursday, but more likely Friday and Saturday. Temps will remain above normal, generally in the upper 80s to around 90 Wednesday and Thursday, and lower 90s Friday and Saturday. Lows will also be mild, generally in the mid-upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast Tuesday night, Wednesday night and Thursday night, then mainly in the low-mid 70s across most areas this weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Overnight, quiet conditions are expected offshore with westerly winds around 10-15 kt and seas averaging 2-3 feet. Sunday through Thursday: Aloft, the region will remain along the southern periphery of a broad trough Sunday, before a h5 shortwave approaches the Southeast, but remains inland and south of local waters through early week. At the sfc, a front will remain well offshore and south of local waters, leaving high pressure to dominate the pattern early week. Other than a few showers or isolated thunderstorm developing along an afternoon sea breeze and potentially drifting offshore, marine conditions are expected to remain quiet, with light offshore winds each morning (land breeze), becoming onshore during the afternoon (sea breeze), peaking in the 10-15 kt range, although a few gusts to 20 kt are possible along the Charleston County Coast with a sea breeze developing each day. Seas will generally range between 1-2 ft. By mid-week, mid-lvl ridging becomes centered across the Carolinas while an axis of sfc high pressure remains stretched from the western Atlantic to the Carolinas, just north of local waters. The pattern will steer winds onshore both day and night mid-week, with speeds generally in the 10-15 kt range across most waters, although a slightly tighter pressure gradient could lead to gusts up to 20 kt across Georgia waters. The long fetch should help build seas mid-week, approaching 2-4 ft by Thursday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232785 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1012 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Troughing will continue over the Carolinas this afternoon as another cold front approaches. The front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore late next week, increasing moisture and rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 2200 Saturday...The first prefrontal trough and associated convection continues to push further offshore to the E with weaker secondary prefrontal trough working through SWern zones currently. Cold front currently draped along the the NC/VA border will sink through the FA after midnight tonight. Winds generally Werly between the SFC troughs ahead of the front with Nerly winds to follow FROPA with some crisp CAA taking place through the rest of the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid 50s over the coastal plain to low 60s along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sat...Pleasant conditions persist tomorrow with cooler high pressure over the region. Expect highs mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Afternoon moisture return over SC and interior NC will ooze eastward towards ENC late in the day, and some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the western coastal plain as moisture and instability increases. Will need to monitor for the potential of a late day/evening severe threat if instability develops as advertised, as there will be ample deep layer shear present and approaching mid level support. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Thursday highs are expected to be near 90 inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. Friday high pressure offshore will help funnel gulf moisture ahead of a trough moving through Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/... As of 1940 Saturday...VFR flights save for low end chance for subVFR directly underneath convection. Gusty Werly winds through this evening until cold front sinks through FA after midnight, turning winds Nerly with stark drying. VFR prevails with light and var winds until the afternoon when FEW to SCT diurnal CU develops with more S-SWerly winds AoB 10kt. Clouds and shower chances increase from W to E after the end of this TAF cycle. LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 PM Sat... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions continue through tonight - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Small craft conditions continue across the coastal waters as SW winds remain 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Winds will strengthen slightly through the rest of the afternoon and then begin to decrease after sunset as a secondary cold front moves through the region. By early tomorrow morning winds will become NW at 10-15 kts, and will then continue to subside the rest of tomorrow morning. A weak sea breeze will develop tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming S at 5-10 kts. Seas will be 4-6 ft through early tonight, and then subside to 2-4 ft tomorrow. LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday night into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232784 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 PM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 930 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance may produce a passing shower this evening across northeastern areas. A cold front will drop down from the north through Sunday producing a chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorms mainly from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .UPDATE... Forecast updated to adjust PoPs through midnight based on latest radar trends...mainly to increase to likely PoPs over far northern Bladen and Pender counties where convection is now approaching. Otherwise, no large changes from the previous forecast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid to upper trough moving ever so slowly eastward as it continues to extend down over the Carolinas. The trough becomes broader as impulses drop down along the base of the trough. This combined with another cold front dropping down from the north will maintain a slight chance of showers this evening and then again later on Sunday. The soundings show moisture in a layer from 6k to 11kt ft below subsidence inversion this evening with mainly some clouds expected, but with impulse aloft, may see enough to squeeze out a shower over mainly northern tier, but overall better chances will remain north of the area where potential for stronger to severe storms will exist. This diffuse cold front will be draped across the area on Sunday with relatively cooler air pushing in from the north. As another impulse rotates around the upper trough over the Carolinas late Sun aftn, it will give added support from aloft and will combine with this boundary and peak heating to produce another opportunity for shwrs/tstms. Could even see some hail or gusty winds with an isolated stronger storm possibly. Overall, expect some clouds mixing with the sunshine on Sun with better chc of rain late day after subsidence inversion breaks. Gusty winds today will diminish and veer around to the north behind cold front and then to the E-SE into Sun aftn as boundary remains in the vicinity. Temps tonight will drop close to 60 most places in drier air mass tonight and will warm into the mid 80s south and closer to 80 over northern tier where better chc of clouds should be. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Initially a back door cold front will be moving across the area associated with another shortwave embedded within the overall parent trough. The system has a decent east to west orientation as it pushes offshore so pops are in place for most of the overnight timeframe into Monday morning. The remainder of the short term...through Tuesday...period is dry with warming temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended forecast starts off dry but gets more unsettled in time. It appears the first round of lower pops arriving Thursday and more coastal oriented is associated with a mid level system moving in from the Atlantic across the southeast. Its worth noting there remains a lot of spread in this guidance/forecast. By the end of the work week and into the weekend a more traditional continental system moving in from the west warrants lower chance pops and more widespread. Temperatures increase early on to around five degrees above climatology but increasing pops/moisture seem to cap values right there. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR continuing though at least midday Sunday. A front drops into the area tonight, but any precip is expected to stay north of the TAF sites. No fog anticipated tonight due to low dewpoints, and cloud decks should stay in the 6-10k ft range as winds become light/variable. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday aftn/evening, with chances too low to warrant mention in the TAFs attm. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in any storms. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR and dry. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Gusty westerly offshore flow will diminish and veer to the north before daybreak on Sun and then become more light and variable as a cold front drops down from the north into Sun and then moves back north late Sun. Seas up to 3 to 5 ft tonight will drop off through Sunday down to 2 to 3 ft by late day. A minimal SW swell will mix in. Sunday through Wednesday...A southerly flow will remain in place Sunday night but for the next few days a northerly component will be in place followed by a return flow late in the period. Wind speeds don`t appear to rise much above ten knots at the most so no headlines are anticipated. Overall significant seas will be 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232783 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 PM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 926 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through midweek. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 925 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Turning cool overnight with lows dipping into the 40s inland. Tstms have finally dissipated with the loss of daytime heating, and a secondary push of CAA has entered the area as winds have become N-NW. It will be relatively cool overnight as high pressure builds in/winds lighten. Forecast lows are in the mid- upper 40s inland with lower-mid 50s at the immediate coast. Can`t rule out some lower 40s in the typical cool spots if winds go calm near sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with a significant warming trend then starting Tuesday. A strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Monday. At the surface, a stationary front S likely stays just S of the forecast area, but could encroach the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound in the evening. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. There remains a low probability that a few showers or storms could sneak into portions of far srn VA and NE NC later in the evening Sunday, depending on the evolution of the sfc front. However, recent CAM runs keep the vast majority of any precip (and instability) S of our CWA. SPC still has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sunday, but am not expecting any severe wx locally at this time. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid- upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low- mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. By Tuesday, the sfc high begins to shift offshore as a ridge axis sets up along the Appalachians and East Coast. This favors a noticeable warmup with highs in the 80s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Ridging looks to remain over the eastern CONUS through most of the extended period. This will favor a significant warmup continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs swing to above normal levels by Wednesday and widespread upper 80s-lower 90s highs are expected by Thursday and Friday. Ensembles show the ridge breaking down by Friday as some sort of trough approaches from the W. This will likely bring a return to at least diurnal showers and thunderstorms. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Saturday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front are impacting the Hampton Roads region this evening, but are winding down as the sun sets. Other than perhaps a quick shower at ORF/PHF between now and 01z, terminals should remain dry through the period. SCT cloud cover clears out pretty quickly tonight. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. SKC continues into the first part of Sunday with generally light W-WSW winds. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few showers in NE NC Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Currituck Sound and rivers through this evening and have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay through early Sunday morning. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. Gusty westerly winds of 15-25 kt continue this afternoon, especially over the lower and western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs for the rivers and Currituck Sound have been extended through 7 PM given the gustiness is expected to persist for a few more hours. With seas below 5 ft on the coastal waters and only nearshore gusts of 20-25 kt, will keep these zones headline- free through tonight. Showers/tstms are also expected through this afternoon and evening, with some potentially strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Recent guidance and wind probabilities have trended upward with this wind surge as pressure rises around 6 mb/6 hr overspread the area. With solid gusts to 25 kt and 2-3 ft waves expected for most of the bay, have elected to just extend the SCA through tonight into early Sunday for all of the bay. This is despite a likely lull in the winds around sunset this evening. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ631-632-634. && $$ |
| #1232782 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 830 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Tonight through Sunday Night... An upper closed low pressure area over eastern Nebraska will dive south-southeastward to become centered over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight Sunday night. This low will bring a cool pool of mid-level air (3C @ 700mb) along with it, as well as it`s own moisture (PWATs 1.4-1.7 inches). By mid afternoon Sunday, due to the combination of surface heating and the cool pool aloft, 925-700mb lapse rates should approach 8.2C/km. Although not resolved by the NBM, all of these environmental factors should allow isolated light showers to develop from mid-afternoon through the evening hours across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, so went ahead and added these to the forecast. It could also be a bit hazy tomorrow afternoon as mid/high level smoke from the wildfires in Canada has been wrapping around this system, and it is expected to spread over our entire area. Low temperatures interior areas tonight will be 1 to 4 degrees below normal, and range from 60 to 65 degrees. Temps along the coast will be closer to normal, and range from 65 to 70 degrees. The beaches and barrier islands should hold in the 70 to 75 degree range. High temperatures Sunday will be right around normal, ranging from 84 to 89 degrees. Low temperatures Sunday night should be 2 to 4 degrees warmer across the board. /22 Monday through Saturday... As we open up the first week of June, the 31.12Z global models show an upper trof over the East Coast states into the eastern Gulf on Monday. The upper trof translates east to off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday, with an upper ridge meanwhile expanding/building from the eastern states to the Gulf. Another upper trof over the western CONUS expands to encompass the western and central states, then spreads into the eastern states through Friday. At same time, the upper ridge begins to break down. Dry conditions and large scale subsidence are expected over the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with the upper ridge over the region, then slight chance to chance pops return by Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens. There are indications that a low-level inverted trof in the easterlies translates west over the Gulf and along with improved deep layer moisture over the central Gulf coast would favor chance pops on Thursday, trending to chance to likely pops by Friday and Saturday. Highs on Monday not too far off normal for early June generally 85 to 90, closer to mid 80`s closer to the coast with light flow coming in off the Gulf. Tuesday through Saturday trending hotter with lower 90`s north of I-10 and above normal while the coast in the mid to upper 80`s remain near normal. Overnight lows starting off 64 to 68 interior Tuesday night will be close to normal but moderate to well above normal levels the remainder of the period into the lower 70`s. The immediate coast sees lows warming to a range from 74 to 79. A low risk of rip currents is expected through mid week then becomes moderate to potentially high by Thursday and Friday. /10 /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected over the remainder of the weekend through all of next week. Light westerly winds shift to northerly late tonight, then to southwesterly by early Sunday afternoon, then back to northerly by late Sunday night. Variable winds less than 10 knots from Monday through noon Tuesday will become southeasterly Tuesday afternoon and increase slightly through midweek. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 87 67 88 68 89 72 89 / 0 10 20 10 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 69 86 71 88 72 87 75 88 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 20 Destin 71 87 73 89 75 89 76 88 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 59 88 63 91 65 92 67 93 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 60 86 63 89 65 91 68 90 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 59 84 63 88 65 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 60 89 64 92 65 93 68 92 / 0 10 10 0 0 10 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232781 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 PM 31.May.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 811 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 With the whole forecast area now post frontal, dry NW flow is making for a noticeably cooler and more comfortable day. RH values topping out in the 30s and 40s and High temps generally staying below 90. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s, a little warmer along the coast. Then a slightly warmer day in store for tomorrow as flow becomes more zonal, with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The upper trough will shift east of the area during this period allowing a ridge to build over the area. Surface high pressure will also be in place resulting in dry weather and low humidity to continue. Lows will generally be in the upper 60s with highs Monday in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Rain-free weather will remain with us through Tuesday before the surface high moves far enough east to allow for return flow to gradually increase moisture levels and bring a return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. Coverage will gradually increase as we get later in the week as a trough approaches from the southeast. Morning lows will return to the 70s with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s with some mid 90s in FL on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected with light W to NW winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Winds will be light and variable for a few days before easterlies set in for mid week, occasionally reaching 15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Post frontal dry NW flow bringing RH values down today and Sunday. High mixing heights with light to modest transport winds will lead to higher dispersions in place. Moisture will start creeping back in from monday on, with precip chances returning later in the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Although recent rainfall has caused a couple of rivers to rise into action stage, dry conditions are expected for the next several days and no flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 69 87 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 63 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 69 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232780 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 PM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 635 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Surface high pressure pushing east across the area should keep benign weather in place tonight. A few stray showers could develop near the coastline/Gulf waters (i.e. some light sprinkles along the advancing sea breeze), but by in large conditions will be quiet with overnight lows in the 60s/70s. A midlevel shortwave is progged to dig through the ArkLaTex Region on Sunday. This is progged to bring another wave of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. These storms should begin to develop near Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area earlier in the afternoon, increasing in coverage and spreading southward through the late afternoon & evening. HREF mean surface CAPE is forecasted to reach 2000-3000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. HREF 6km mean wind shear ranges from 30-40 knots during this period, with 3km SRH ranging from 100-225 m2/s2. Midlevel lapse rates near or under 6.5degC/km, weak cloud layer shear and straighter hodographs suggest a sub-optimal configuration for organized storms. Still, these northwest flow situations have an tendency to bring a few surprises from time to time, adding a layer of uncertainty with timing/evolution. This is best demonstrated in the CAMs, with the HRRR showing very sparse convection while the HRW FV3 depicts an MCS pushing through the area. For Sunday, SPC has portions of the Brazos Valley & Piney Woods area under a Slight (level 2/5) risk for severe weather with a Marginal (level 1/5) risk extending south to cover the remainder of SE Texas. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe hazards, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Heavy downpours will be possible though storms should be moving quick enough to mitigate the risk of flash flooding. SPC has noted the potential for significant hail sizes of 2" or greater across the slight risk area, though melting will keep the bulk of the hail (if any) smaller in size. The severe weather risk comes to an end late Sunday night as shower/storm activity diminishes, save for a few stray, lingering showers mostly east of I-45. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The upcoming workweek looks to be a fairly typical early summer week weather-wise. Southerly flow at the surface will bring increased moisture (dew points will be in the low to mid 70s all week long) and ridging aloft will help keep temperatures warm. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for most inland locations through the week with areas along the coast staying in the upper 80s. Afternoon peak heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s inland, and likely staying in the lower 80s. The mix of high moisture and daytime heating may lead to isolated afternoon streamer showers at the start of the week, but a weak front approaching the area from the north (but is NOT expected to enter SE Texas) midweek may lead to higher coverage of showers and storms each afternoon beginning Wednesday. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Quiet VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the evening tonight region-wide. Some terminals (primarily KLBX, KCXO, and KUTS) may see some patchy fog develop overnight into Sunday morning, and ceilings may drop to MVFR/IFR. Any fog and/or low ceilings that do develop will clear out through the morning on Sunday. Light/variable winds will gradually strengthen to southerly/southeasterly into the afternoon hours. There is a chance for some isolated thunderstorm activity to move into the region from the north Sunday afternoon, but chances are currently too low to include in this TAF package, and the best chances will be after 00Z. McNeel && .MARINE... Issued at 543 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the remainder of the weekend. Onshore flow strengthens beginning Tuesday leading to increasing seas and the potential for caution flags to be raised for the bays and Gulf waters at times. The elevated onshore flow will lead to an increased risk in rip currents around and after midweek. Additionally, expect daily chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms to return around midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 93 73 93 / 0 30 30 0 Houston (IAH) 73 93 74 91 / 10 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 88 79 86 / 10 20 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232779 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 753 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring scattered showers and gusty southwest to west winds as it passes through Southern New England late this afternoon into tonight. Mostly clear and generally dry to start Sunday but increasing cloudiness and westerly breezes will lead to a cooler than normal first day of June. Dry weather then continues into the workweek, although with a warming trend. Very warm temperatures likely by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 330 PM Update: Key Messages: * Scattered t-storms in interior central/northern MA dissipate and lift northward into New Hampshire by 6 PM. * Gusty to strong SW winds up to 50 mph for southeast New England thru 10 PM, possible minor tree damage continues into early this evening. Wind Advisory remains valid. * Cloudy with scattered showers thru midnight, then clearing but with west breezes 25-35 mph. Details: Seasonably-strong, 982 mb low was moving through western MA this afternoon. Ahead of it in a region of pretty strong low-level convergence is a line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms mainly in Worcester County on northward into NH. CAPE values are highest in northern/northeast MA at around 1000 J/kg, which is also where the more active corridor of CG/CC flashes are. We don`t expect severe weather to develop as this activity lifts off toward the ENE over the next couple of hours. Risk for any thunderstorms after 6 PM then becomes essentially nil, having pulled away into NH. It`s otherwise a partly to mostly cloudy day but also rather breezy. SW gusts have been in the 25-35 mph range commonly, but have been punching into the 40-45 mph range over Cape Cod and the Islands where a Wind Advisory was posted earlier. There`s been a couple reports of trees downed in the Edgartown and Dartmouth, MA areas. Winds over southeast New England have been on the uptick especially of recent, and the core of a 45-50 kt 975 mb SW low- level jet is expected to pass through this area during the late afternoon to early evening. Strongest WSW gusts mainly over the Islands but we could see gusts in the 45-50 mph range along the South Coast, Cape and Islands thru 7 PM, then tend to decrease in speed thereafter. Minor instances of tree damage could occur in the strongest winds given that trees have a full canopy of leaves, but significant wind impacts aren`t anticipated. Conditions should turn less active by early this evening, although we`ll still be dealing with cloud cover and scattered showers thru midnight, along with WNW breezes 25-30 mph. This occurs as the upper level trough and associated low-level cold advection develops with wraparound showers as sfc low pulls into northern New England. Showers should come to an end by late evening/midnight but not expecting downpours. Cloud cover will be slower to shake free of, but most areas should trend to mostly clear with decreased WNW breezes by daybreak. Lows in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM Update: Key Messages: * Cloud cover increases again Sunday, along with west breezes 25-30 mph. * Cooler than normal highs in the mid 60s, lows mid 40s/near 50. Sunday: Cyclonic flow aloft entrenches itself over Southern New England on Sunday. Although we are looking at dry weather for Sunday, it will still be cooler than normal, with another period of westerly breezes redeveloping shortly after daybreak as deeper mixing gets going. Westerly gusts 25-30 mph are anticipated into Sunday. Late in the day, a second embedded shortwave disturbance in the broader cyclonic flow digs into NY. With the cooler air aloft and diurnal heating, it should again lead to partly to mostly cloudy conditions. So in general a better day than compared to today (Saturday), but still cooler than normal to open the month of June with temps in the mid/upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. Sunday Night: Diurnally-generated mostly cloudy conditions then stands to decrease into Sunday evening. The decreased cloud cover should allow for better radiational cooling, offset by continued W/WNW winds. Should see rather widespread lows in the mid 40s Sunday evening, with lows around 50 for the coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Points * Warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday * Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday * Dry through much of the week, turning more unsettled toward Thursday and Friday. An upper-level trough remains over the region on Monday, with the last bit of shortwave energy moving through on Monday afternoon/evening. With dry mid-level air, not expecting widespread shower activity, but expect increased cloud cover during the afternoon. 850mb temperatures start the day around 3 C, but warm to near 7 C in the afternoon. This should help afternoon high temperatures recover into the low 70s away from the coasts. The upper-level trough finally moves offshore Tuesday, with a strong upper-level ridge building in from the west. High temperatures warm quickly through midweek, in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday, then mid to upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. Not out of the question that some low 90s will show up in our typical hotspots like Norwood and Bradley, with NBM (QMD) showing moderate probabilities around 50% for 90F+. Southerly surface flow will help dewpoints climb through the week, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday, then low to mid-60s on Thursday. If you are looking for somewhere to stay cool, the south coast and Islands will have highs in the 70s due to the cold ocean waters still in the 50s. As for precipitation this week, the upper-level ridge will suppress precipitation chances until late in the week as it begins to dampen and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Unfortunately, the rain chances continue to increase next weekend as guidance hints at a shortwave exiting the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings thru 04z with periods of showers, then showers taper off and ceilings trend to VFR second half of the night. Gusty WSW/WNW winds 25-35 kt thru 03z, then decreases and becomes 15-25 kt overnight. Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR. West winds 10-15 kt with gusts 23-28 kt 13-22z, then gusts decrease after 22z and continue to decrease overnight. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence. BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings with gusty westerly winds around 30-35 kt 00z-04z. Periods SCT SHRA 00-04z, then improving to VFR. BDL TAF...Moderate confidence. W winds 15-18 kt with upper 20s-kt gusts then decrease late tonight. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale warnings continue thru late this evening on southern waters, as southerly gusts should continue to run in the 35-45 kt range on these waters with rough seas. Winds through this afternoon should trend comparatively lighter (25-30 kt) on the eastern waters, with a windshift to W around 25-30 kt on all waters tonight. The gale warnings will eventually need to be downshifted to small craft advisories, and all small craft headlines will likely need to be extended into Sunday with westerly winds 25-30 kt. Secondly, while it will be far from an ideal beach day either the rest of today and on Sunday, the stronger winds and elevated seas will lead to a high risk for rip currents on the Islands. Rip Current Statements have been issued for the rest of today and into Sunday. Those who are venturing to the beach should swim near lifeguards and be aware of the potential for rip currents. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for MAZ023-024. RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for RIZ005-007-008. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for RIZ008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 231-251. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. && $$ |
| #1232778 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 749 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - There is a threat of strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through this evening. The highest coverage is expected on the Eastern Shore. - Turning cool tonight with lows dipping into the 40s inland. Low pressure continues to deepen and occlude over New England, with sfc analysis placing the center over southern New Hampshire as of 3 PM. An anomalous upper trough and shortwave sliding through the area this afternoon has kicked off scattered shower/storm development, with the highest coverage currently over the Eastern Shore. With the trough supporting cold temps aloft, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km per latest SPC mesoanalysis) are in place over the area. Thus, storms appear capable of producing small to localized large hail. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates and dry air aloft would also support a damaging wind threat with any organized storm, especially if any clusters or lines can develop. The kinematic environment is characterized by 25-35 kt of effective shear N of the NC/VA border with 30-40 kt S, with the steep lapse rates supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. All in all, expect a continued threat for strong to locally severe storms, especially for eastern and southeast portions of the area through the evening. SPC upgraded the Eastern Shore to a Level 2 out 5 (Slight) Risk with their early afternoon update and a Level 1 out 5 (Marginal) Risk remains in place for all other areas. Storms should gradually move E/SE through this evening, lingering longest over SE VA and NE NC. Would expect most activity to be off the coast by 9-10 PM per the latest CAMs. In terms of the temperature forecast, temps have generally warmed into the mid-upper 70s across the area, except where rain/storms have moved through. Highs could touch the lower 80s across southern VA and NE NC. Cool temps are expected tonight as high pressure builds in and winds lighten and lows in the mid-upper 40s are expected inland with lower-mid 50s at the immediate coast. Can`t rule out some lower 40s if winds go calm near sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with a significant warming trend then starting Tuesday. A strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Monday. At the surface, a stationary front S likely stays just S of the forecast area, but could encroach the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound in the evening. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. There remains a low probability that a few showers or storms could sneak into portions of far srn VA and NE NC later in the evening Sunday, depending on the evolution of the sfc front. However, recent CAM runs keep the vast majority of any precip (and instability) S of our CWA. SPC still has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sunday, but am not expecting any severe wx locally at this time. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid- upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low- mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. By Tuesday, the sfc high begins to shift offshore as a ridge axis sets up along the Appalachians and East Coast. This favors a noticeable warmup with highs in the 80s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Ridging looks to remain over the eastern CONUS through most of the extended period. This will favor a significant warmup continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs swing to above normal levels by Wednesday and widespread upper 80s-lower 90s highs are expected by Thursday and Friday. Ensembles show the ridge breaking down by Friday as some sort of trough approaches from the W. This will likely bring a return to at least diurnal showers and thunderstorms. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Saturday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front are impacting the Hampton Roads region this evening, but are winding down as the sun sets. Other than perhaps a quick shower at ORF/PHF between now and 01z, terminals should remain dry through the period. SCT cloud cover clears out pretty quickly tonight. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. SKC continues into the first part of Sunday with generally light W-WSW winds. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few showers in NE NC Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Currituck Sound and rivers through this evening and have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay through early Sunday morning. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. Gusty westerly winds of 15-25 kt continue this afternoon, especially over the lower and western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs for the rivers and Currituck Sound have been extended through 7 PM given the gustiness is expected to persist for a few more hours. With seas below 5 ft on the coastal waters and only nearshore gusts of 20-25 kt, will keep these zones headline- free through tonight. Showers/tstms are also expected through this afternoon and evening, with some potentially strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Recent guidance and wind probabilities have trended upward with this wind surge as pressure rises around 6 mb/6 hr overspread the area. With solid gusts to 25 kt and 2-3 ft waves expected for most of the bay, have elected to just extend the SCA through tonight into early Sunday for all of the bay. This is despite a likely lull in the winds around sunset this evening. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ631-632-634. && $$ |
| #1232777 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 626 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Weak high surface pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend keeping the weather generally quiet. The biggest question is whether isolated to widely scattered showers will pop up late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a fast- moving upper disturbance barrels into the area embedded within the overall upper trough axis. Since the timing looks to coincide with peak daytime heating, it seems we should see at least a few showers develop as the shortwave moves into and through the area. And indeed, most CAM guidance agrees on this scenario, though the specifics are quite varied. That being said, have continued to carry generally 15-20% POPs to account for the low-end, location-specific rain chances. Regarding temperatures, expect lows in the mid to upper 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s south, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s on Sunday. This is near normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An elongated upper high will control the area weather Monday and Tuesday leading to generally quiet conditions and a gradual warming trend as surface high pressure slides east of the local area with warm and moist air moving back into the area from the Gulf. Expect temperatures to be near or slightly above normal with no significant rain chances. The upper high begins to break down Wednesday as a fast-moving upper disturbance moves toward the middle Mississippi valley. The front associated with this system will stall WELL northwest of the area, keeping us entrenched in a warm and humid airmass. Expect to see typical summer-like showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours driven by the diurnal heating cycle. Beyond Friday, please resist the urge buy into any individual model forecasts regarding a tropical low that may or may not form around central America during the second week of June associated with the Central American gyre (CAG). The CAG is a seasonal area of low pressure that typically forms near Central America during the May-June timeframe. Tropical lows associated with the CAG can develop on either the Pacific or Atlantic side of the continent, and their specific genesis locations greatly affect their eventual paths. With that said, there is little to no confidence 7+ days out regarding whether or where the CAG might result in cyclogenesis. Remember to make sure you are following reliable sources for your weather information. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions across the area, and expected to continue for most or all of the forecast period. Cloud cover could become a little more extensive Sunday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the northwest, but temperature/dew point spreads would indicate cloud bases should remain above FL040. There is a low-end threat for TSRA late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening with the aforementioned shortwave, but confidence is not high enough to carry at a particular terminal that far out in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A stalled boundary over the northern Gulf will keep winds light and somewhat variable today. The front will move northward again Sunday with a return to onshore flow. As the gradient gradually tightens, expect wind speeds to slowly strengthen to 10 to 15 knots by midweek. Rain chances will generally remain low for the remainder of today and tomorrow, but will gradually increase through midweek with a return to daily scattered showers and storms Wed through Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 86 65 88 / 0 20 10 10 BTR 67 88 70 90 / 0 20 10 10 ASD 64 88 68 89 / 0 10 20 10 MSY 70 89 73 89 / 0 10 20 10 GPT 66 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 10 PQL 64 87 67 88 / 0 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232776 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. This boundary will also lead to the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the river and south into Mexico through this afternoon. By this evening rain chances will taper off as the boundary moves north with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday, topping out between 100 and 105 degrees for much of the CWA. Overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will fall into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Mid-level ridge should continue to be the major influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period. This will mean that outside of a few rogue showers, that rain chances will be very limited. Meanwhile, at the surface, the southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the period as well allowing for more warm moist air to move into the area during the period. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s for the long term forecast period. The high temperatures are expected to be generally in the 90s for the area. However parts of Zapata and Starr counties could get into the triple digits during the period. While there are pockets of Major (level 3 out of 4) for heat risk during the period, the heat indices are expected to remain around 105-108, which is below the criteria for Heat Advisory. However, a Special Weather Statement for heat is not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light to moderate winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Now through Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Seas of around 2 feet are expected with 5 to 6 second periods. Monday through Next Saturday...A slightly elevated pressure gradient between low pressure in the Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will result in moderate southeasterly winds through next Saturday and thus in turn build the seas. This will result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution for parts of the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 92 78 91 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 92 75 93 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 77 96 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 79 86 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1232772 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 715 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Excluding the expansive layer of smoke aloft across the Southeast, skies would actually be clear. Instead, we are left with a very hazy sky which actually helped to keep temperatures down a bit this afternoon. Overnight, very quiet conditions will continue. Lows are forecast to fall into the low 60s inland of the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, the region will remain along the southern periphery of a broad longwave trough extending across the East CONUS Sunday, before a notable h5 shortwave rounds its southwestern edge and approaches the Southeast United States, but likely tracks just south of the local area Monday, then far offshore Tuesday. Mid- lvl ridging then takes place on Tuesday, with its axis developing across the Carolinas. At the sfc, high pressure will slowly build across the region Sunday, then persist through Tuesday, in wake a front positioned well offshore and south of the region. The presence of the high and northwest downslope wind aloft will likely maintain dry conditions for most areas Sunday through Tuesday, with model soundings also indicating a fairly large amount of dry air in the low-mid lvls locally. However, there appears to be a slight chance for a shower and/or thunderstorm Monday afternoon, mainly along a sea breeze circulation across Southeast South Carolina when peak h5 vort energy traverses near the area. The presence of a the dry downslope pattern along with ridging taking place by Tuesday suggests a warming trend early week, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s Sunday, peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. Strong radiational cooling nights under clear skies and light/calm winds should favor lows in the low- mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will prevail over the Southeast United States mid-week, likely remaining in control of the weather pattern through early Thursday, before beginning to shift offshore Friday while h5 shortwave energy advances across the Deep South. At the sfc, high pressure stretched across the western Atlantic and across the Southeast will favor an onshore flow, ushering moisture into the local area through late week. The combination of increasing low-lvl moisture, abundant sfc heating, and approaching mid-lvl energy should yield diurnal convection (showers and thunderstorms) as early as Thursday, but more likely Friday and Saturday. Temps will remain above normal, generally in the upper 80s to around 90 Wednesday and Thursday, and lower 90s Friday and Saturday. Lows will also be mild, generally in the mid-upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast Tuesday night, Wednesday night and Thursday night, then mainly in the low-mid 70s across most areas this weekend. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Monday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Overnight, quiet conditions are expected offshore with westerly winds around 10-15 kt and seas averaging 2-3 feet. Sunday through Thursday: Aloft, the region will remain along the southern periphery of a broad trough Sunday, before a h5 shortwave approaches the Southeast, but remains inland and south of local waters through early week. At the sfc, a front will remain well offshore and south of local waters, leaving high pressure to dominate the pattern early week. Other than a few showers or isolated thunderstorm developing along an afternoon sea breeze and potentially drifting offshore, marine conditions are expected to remain quiet, with light offshore winds each morning (land breeze), becoming onshore during the afternoon (sea breeze), peaking in the 10-15 kt range, although a few gusts to 20 kt are possible along the Charleston County Coast with a sea breeze developing each day. Seas will generally range between 1-2 ft. By mid-week, mid-lvl ridging becomes centered across the Carolinas while an axis of sfc high pressure remains stretched from the western Atlantic to the Carolinas, just north of local waters. The pattern will steer winds onshore both day and night mid-week, with speeds generally in the 10-15 kt range across most waters, although a slightly tighter pressure gradient could lead to gusts up to 20 kt across Georgia waters. The long fetch should help build seas mid-week, approaching 2-4 ft by Thursday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232771 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 608 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chances (<10-20%) for showers this evening across the southern Brush Country. Surface high pressure that has brought fair weather and slight northeasterly winds will move toward the Deep South resulting in the return of southeasterly, onshore flow tonight. Hi-res guidance still is throwing out isolated showers across the Southern Brush Country and into the RGV late this afternoon and into the evening. Given the low confidence in this scenario, no blending was done to the NBM PoPs since they generally maxed out at 10-20% in Duval and Webb County. Sunday is looking to remain partly to mostly sunny, allowing the Brush Country to warm back into the upper 90s and low 100s, while remaining slightly above normal elsewhere. The Heat Risk will remain at Moderate (level 2 of 4) in the Brush Country while remaining at Minor risk (level 1 of 4) elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wed/Thu next week. - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country mid-late next week. The forecast for the upcoming week keeps slowly back tracking on rain chances as ridging generally maintains control aloft. The first ridge will build overhead early in the week, before its center drifts eastward around mid week, and then another high pressure center takes a hold from the southwest. Low rain/storm chances (<25%) are forecast Wednesday and Thursday as PWATs briefly increase to near 1.8-2.0" and combine with daytime instability and the sea- breeze to spark isolated convection. The rest of the week will mostly be dry, but even drier conditions can be expected late week as a Saharan Dust plume begins to reach into our area. This could impact visibilities and possibly increase the risk for respiratory issues. Temperatures will be increasingly warmer throughout the week, and nearing 105 degrees out west by next weekend. The risk for heat related impacts will climb to Major to Extreme levels by mid week, and persist through the weekend. The highest heat threat will reside out west over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light showers are moving east over the area from Mexico while a few little showers are popping up over the Victoria Crossroads so have included a TEMPO for light rain through 03Z for VCT, LRD, and COT. Chances for showers will diminish overnight, with partly cloudy, VFR ceilings overnight. By early morning (10Z-13Z), expect patchy fog for ALI and VCT before VFR conditions return for all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeasterly flow with 1-2 ft seas persist through Sunday morning. Winds in the inland bays and nearshore waters will briefly gust up to moderate (BF 4) strength Sunday afternoon. Onshore flow will increase to a moderate to at times fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Monday evening, persisting through the end of next week. There`s a 15-25% chance for showers mid to late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 73 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 76 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 10 Alice 74 97 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 Rockport 78 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232770 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 709 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance may produce a passing shower this evening across northeastern areas. A cold front will drop down from the north through Sunday producing a chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorms mainly from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid to upper trough moving ever so slowly eastward as it continues to extend down over the Carolinas. The trough becomes broader as impulses drop down along the base of the trough. This combined with another cold front dropping down from the north will maintain a slight chance of showers this evening and then again later on Sunday. The soundings show moisture in a layer from 6k to 11kt ft below subsidence inversion this evening with mainly some clouds expected, but with impulse aloft, may see enough to squeeze out a shower over mainly northern tier, but overall better chances will remain north of the area where potential for stronger to severe storms will exist. This diffuse cold front will be draped across the area on Sunday with relatively cooler air pushing in from the north. As another impulse rotates around the upper trough over the Carolinas late Sun aftn, it will give added support from aloft and will combine with this boundary and peak heating to produce another opportunity for shwrs/tstms. Could even see some hail or gusty winds with an isolated stronger storm possibly. Overall, expect some clouds mixing with the sunshine on Sun with better chc of rain late day after subsidence inversion breaks. Gusty winds today will diminish and veer around to the north behind cold front and then to the E-SE into Sun aftn as boundary remains in the vicinity. Temps tonight will drop close to 60 most places in drier air mass tonight and will warm into the mid 80s south and closer to 80 over northern tier where better chc of clouds should be. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Initially a back door cold front will be moving across the area associated with another shortwave embedded within the overall parent trough. The system has a decent east to west orientation as it pushes offshore so pops are in place for most of the overnight timeframe into Monday morning. The remainder of the short term...through Tuesday...period is dry with warming temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended forecast starts off dry but gets more unsettled in time. It appears the first round of lower pops arriving Thursday and more coastal oriented is associated with a mid level system moving in from the Atlantic across the southeast. Its worth noting there remains a lot of spread in this guidance/forecast. By the end of the work week and into the weekend a more traditional continental system moving in from the west warrants lower chance pops and more widespread. Temperatures increase early on to around five degrees above climatology but increasing pops/moisture seem to cap values right there. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR continuing though at least midday Sunday. A front drops into the area tonight, but any precip is expected to stay north of the TAF sites. No fog anticipated tonight due to low dewpoints, and cloud decks should stay in the 6-10k ft range as winds become light/variable. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday aftn/evening, with chances too low to warrant mention in the TAFs attm. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in any storms. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR and dry. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Gusty westerly offshore flow will diminish and veer to the north before daybreak on Sun and then become more light and variable as a cold front drops down from the north into Sun and then moves back north late Sun. Seas up to 3 to 5 ft tonight will drop off through Sunday down to 2 to 3 ft by late day. A minimal SW swell will mix in. Sunday through Wednesday...A southerly flow will remain in place Sunday night but for the next few days a northerly component will be in place followed by a return flow late in the period. Wind speeds don`t appear to rise much above ten knots at the most so no headlines are anticipated. Overall significant seas will be 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232769 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 PM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 543 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Surface high pressure pushing east across the area should keep benign weather in place tonight. A few stray showers could develop near the coastline/Gulf waters (i.e. some light sprinkles along the advancing sea breeze), but by in large conditions will be quiet with overnight lows in the 60s/70s. A midlevel shortwave is progged to dig through the ArkLaTex Region on Sunday. This is progged to bring another wave of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. These storms should begin to develop near Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area earlier in the afternoon, increasing in coverage and spreading southward through the late afternoon & evening. HREF mean surface CAPE is forecasted to reach 2000-3000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. HREF 6km mean wind shear ranges from 30-40 knots during this period, with 3km SRH ranging from 100-225 m2/s2. Midlevel lapse rates near or under 6.5degC/km, weak cloud layer shear and straighter hodographs suggest a sub-optimal configuration for organized storms. Still, these northwest flow situations have an tendency to bring a few surprises from time to time, adding a layer of uncertainty with timing/evolution. This is best demonstrated in the CAMs, with the HRRR showing very sparse convection while the HRW FV3 depicts an MCS pushing through the area. For Sunday, SPC has portions of the Brazos Valley & Piney Woods area under a Slight (level 2/5) risk for severe weather with a Marginal (level 1/5) risk extending south to cover the remainder of SE Texas. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe hazards, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Heavy downpours will be possible though storms should be moving quick enough to mitigate the risk of flash flooding. SPC has noted the potential for significant hail sizes of 2" or greater across the slight risk area, though melting will keep the bulk of the hail (if any) smaller in size. The severe weather risk comes to an end late Sunday night as shower/storm activity diminishes, save for a few stray, lingering showers mostly east of I-45. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The upcoming workweek looks to be a fairly typical early summer week weather-wise. Southerly flow at the surface will bring increased moisture (dew points will be in the low to mid 70s all week long) and ridging aloft will help keep temperatures warm. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for most inland locations through the week with areas along the coast staying in the upper 80s. Afternoon peak heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s inland, and likely staying in the lower 80s. The mix of high moisture and daytime heating may lead to isolated afternoon streamer showers at the start of the week, but a weak front approaching the area from the north (but is NOT expected to enter SE Texas) midweek may lead to higher coverage of showers and storms each afternoon beginning Wednesday. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions expected this afternoon with light winds, generally northerly early then shifting southeasterly later today near the coast. Isolated patchy fog will be possible overnight into the early morning hours of Sunday, mainly at KLBX, KCXO and KUTS. These sites are most likely to see FLs drop to MVFR to IFR conditions (possibly lower in the hours leading up to sunrise). All CIGs/Fog will clear out not long after sunrise on Sunday. Light southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen and shift south/southeast heading into the afternoon on Sunday. Isolated to scattered storms may start to develop/move in from the north during this period, though chances remain too low for a mention the the present TAF. Best chances for showers/storms over the metro area occur beyond the current TAF period (00z-06z). 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 543 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the remainder of the weekend. Onshore flow strengthens beginning Tuesday leading to increasing seas and the potential for caution flags to be raised for the bays and Gulf waters at times. The elevated onshore flow will lead to an increased risk in rip currents around and after midweek. Additionally, expect daily chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms to return around midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 93 73 93 / 0 30 30 0 Houston (IAH) 73 93 74 91 / 10 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 88 79 86 / 10 20 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232768 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 356 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Tonight through Sunday Night... An upper closed low pressure area over eastern Nebraska will dive south-southeastward to become centered over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight Sunday night. This low will bring a cool pool of mid-level air (3C @ 700mb) along with it, as well as it`s own moisture (PWATs 1.4-1.7 inches). By mid afternoon Sunday, due to the combination of surface heating and the cool pool aloft, 925-700mb lapse rates should approach 8.2C/km. Although not resolved by the NBM, all of these environmental factors should allow isolated light showers to develop from mid-afternoon through the evening hours across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, so went ahead and added these to the forecast. It could also be a bit hazy tomorrow afternoon as mid/high level smoke from the wildfires in Canada has been wrapping around this system, and it is expected to spread over our entire area. Low temperatures interior areas tonight will be 1 to 4 degrees below normal, and range from 60 to 65 degrees. Temps along the coast will be closer to normal, and range from 65 to 70 degrees. The beaches and barrier islands should hold in the 70 to 75 degree range. High temperatures Sunday will be right around normal, ranging from 84 to 89 degrees. Low temperatures Sunday night should be 2 to 4 degrees warmer across the board. /22 Monday through Saturday... As we open up the first week of June, the 31.12Z global models show an upper trof over the East Coast states into the eastern Gulf on Monday. The upper trof translates east to off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday, with an upper ridge meanwhile expanding/building from the eastern states to the Gulf. Another upper trof over the western CONUS expands to encompass the western and central states, then spreads into the eastern states through Friday. At same time, the upper ridge begins to break down. Dry conditions and large scale subsidence are expected over the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with the upper ridge over the region, then slight chance to chance pops return by Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens. There are indications that a low-level inverted trof in the easterlies translates west over the Gulf and along with improved deep layer moisture over the central Gulf coast would favor chance pops on Thursday, trending to chance to likely pops by Friday and Saturday. Highs on Monday not too far off normal for early June generally 85 to 90, closer to mid 80`s closer to the coast with light flow coming in off the Gulf. Tuesday through Saturday trending hotter with lower 90`s north of I-10 and above normal while the coast in the mid to upper 80`s remain near normal. Overnight lows starting off 64 to 68 interior Tuesday night will be close to normal but moderate to well above normal levels the remainder of the period into the lower 70`s. The immediate coast sees lows warming to a range from 74 to 79. A low risk of rip currents is expected through mid week then becomes moderate to potentially high by Thursday and Friday. /10 /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail along with light and variable winds. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected over the remainder of the weekend through all of next week. Light westerly winds shift to northerly late tonight, then to southwesterly by early Sunday afternoon, then back to northerly by late Sunday night. Variable winds less than 10 knots from Monday through noon Tuesday will become southeasterly Tuesday afternoon and increase slightly through midweek. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 87 67 88 68 89 72 89 / 0 10 20 10 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 69 86 71 88 72 87 75 88 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 20 Destin 71 87 73 89 75 89 76 88 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 59 88 63 91 65 92 67 93 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 60 86 63 89 65 91 68 90 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 59 84 63 88 65 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 60 89 64 92 65 93 68 92 / 0 10 10 0 0 10 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232767 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 PM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 413 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance may produce a passing shower this evening, mainly across northern and western areas. A cold front will drop down from the north through Sunday producing a chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorms mainly from late Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid to upper trough moving ever so slowly eastward as it continues to extend down over the Carolinas. The trough becomes broader as impulses drop down along the base of the trough. This combined with another cold front dropping down from the north will maintain a slight chance of showers this evening and then again later on Sunday. The soundings show moisture in a layer from 6k to 11kt ft below subsidence inversion this evening with mainly some clouds expected, but with impulse aloft, may see enough to squeeze out a shower over mainly northern tier, but overall better chances will remain north of the area where potential for stronger to severe storms will exist. This diffuse cold front will be draped across the area on Sunday with relatively cooler air pushing in from the north. As another impulse rotates around the upper trough over the Carolinas late Sun aftn, it will give added support from aloft and will combine with this boundary and peak heating to produce another opportunity for shwrs/tstms. Could even see some hail or gusty winds with an isolated stronger storm possibly. Overall, expect some clouds mixing with the sunshine on Sun with better chc of rain late day after subsidence inversion breaks. Gusty winds today will diminish and veer around to the north behind cold front and then to the E-SE into Sun aftn as boundary remains in the vicinity. Temps tonight will drop close to 60 most places in drier air mass tonight and will warm into the mid 80s south and closer to 80 over northern tier where better chc of clouds should be. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Initially a back door cold front will be moving across the area associated with another shortwave embedded within the overall parent trough. The system has a decent east to west orientation as it pushes offshore so pops are in place for most of the overnight timeframe into Monday morning. The remainder of the short term...through Tuesday...period is dry with warming temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended forecast starts off dry but gets more unsettled in time. It appears the first round of lower pops arriving Thursday and more coastal oriented is associated with a mid level system moving in from the Atlantic across the southeast. Its worth noting there remains a lot of spread in this guidance/forecast. By the end of the work week and into the weekend a more traditional continental system moving in from the west warrants lower chance pops and more widespread. Temperatures increase early on to around five degrees above climatology but increasing pops/moisture seem to cap values right there. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR through 12Z Sunday. Gusty west- northwest winds will continue through the day as stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Winds drop under 10 kt in the evening with development. Winds will shift to the north in the pre-dawn hours a cold front drops down from the north. Winds will continue to veer around to a more E-SE flow by Sun aftn but will remain quite light and more variable in nature through Sunday. Soundings show a moist layer between 6k and 11k ft for a few hours from around 23z to 03z associated with trough aloft ahead of cold front. Added some SCT to BKN alto cu at this time, and could see a passing shower at LBT or ILM, but better chc to the north. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Gusty westerly offshore flow will diminish and veer to the north before daybreak on Sun and then become more light and variable as a cold front drops down from the north into Sun and then moves back north late Sun. Seas up to 3 to 5 ft tonight will drop off through Sunday down to 2 to 3 ft by late day. A minimal SW swell will mix in. Sunday through Wednesday... A southerly flow will remain in place Sunday night but for the next few days a northerly component will be in place followed by a return flow late in the period. Wind speeds don`t appear to rise much above ten knots at the most so no headlines are anticipated. Overall significant seas will be 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232766 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 318 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Surface high pressure pushing east across the area should keep benign weather in place tonight. A few stray showers could develop near the coastline/Gulf waters (i.e. some light sprinkles along the advancing sea breeze), but by in large conditions will be quiet with overnight lows in the 60s/70s. A midlevel shortwave is progged to dig through the ArkLaTex Region on Sunday. This is progged to bring another wave of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. These storms should begin to develop near Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area earlier in the afternoon, increasing in coverage and spreading southward through the late afternoon & evening. HREF mean surface CAPE is forecasted to reach 2000-3000 J/KG Sunday afternoon. HREF 6km mean wind shear ranges from 30-40 knots during this period, with 3km SRH ranging from 100-225 m2/s2. Midlevel lapse rates near or under 6.5degC/km, weak cloud layer shear and straighter hodographs suggest a sub-optimal configuration for organized storms. Still, these northwest flow situations have an tendency to bring a few surprises from time to time, adding a layer of uncertainty with timing/evolution. This is best demonstrated in the CAMs, with the HRRR showing very sparse convection while the HRW FV3 depicts an MCS pushing through the area. For Sunday, SPC has portions of the Brazos Valley & Piney Woods area under a Slight (level 2/5) risk for severe weather with a Marginal (level 1/5) risk extending south to cover the remainder of SE Texas. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe hazards, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Heavy downpours will be possible though storms should be moving quick enough to mitigate the risk of flash flooding. SPC has noted the potential for significant hail sizes of 2" or greater across the slight risk area, though melting will keep the bulk of the hail (if any) smaller in size. The severe weather risk comes to an end late Sunday night as shower/storm activity diminishes, save for a few stray, lingering showers mostly east of I-45. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The upcoming workweek looks to be a fairly typical early summer week weather-wise. Southerly flow at the surface will bring increased moisture (dew points will be in the low to mid 70s all week long) and ridging aloft will help keep temperatures warm. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s for most inland locations through the week with areas along the coast staying in the upper 80s. Afternoon peak heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s inland, and likely staying in the lower 80s. The mix of high moisture and daytime heating may lead to isolated afternoon streamer showers at the start of the week, but a weak front approaching the area from the north (but is NOT expected to enter SE Texas) midweek may lead to higher coverage of showers and storms each afternoon beginning Wednesday. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions expected this afternoon with light winds, generally northerly early then shifting southeasterly later today near the coast. Isolated patchy fog will be possible overnight into the early morning hours of Sunday, mainly at KLBX, KCXO and KUTS. These sites are most likely to see FLs drop to MVFR to IFR conditions (possibly lower in the hours leading up to sunrise). All CIGs/Fog will clear out not long after sunrise on Sunday. Light southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen and shift south/southeast heading into the afternoon on Sunday. Isolated to scattered storms may start to develop/move in from the north during this period, though chances remain too low for a mention the the present TAF. Best chances for showers/storms over the metro area occur beyond the current TAF period (00z-06z). 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Rain chances decrease further into next week as mid/upper level ridging builds in from the west. Though, isolated rain chances return on Tuesday as ridging aloft shifts east of the state while moisture and PVA increase. Temps throughout the long term remain relatively stable with highs in the 80s/lower 90s and morning lows in the upper 60s/upper 70s. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 93 72 92 / 0 30 30 10 Houston (IAH) 72 93 74 91 / 10 20 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 77 88 79 86 / 10 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232765 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 353 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Aloft, longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep upper low across New England and eastern Canada. At the surface, high pressure across the Deep South will begin to filter into the area from the southwest as the surface low over northern Maine lifts north. Quiet conditions will persist through the night with a cool, dry air mass expected to remain in place. Prime radiational cooling conditions will occur tonight with clear skies, light to calm winds, and seasonably low dew points in the mid/upper 50s. This will allow temperatures to dip into the lower 60s away from the immediate coast and mid to upper 60s near/along the beaches and Downtown Charleston. One detail to note: A layer of smoke from the Canadian wildfires advected in via the upper trough should linger aloft overnight. Temperatures were inhibited earlier today, and therefore could offset radiational cooling effects tonight. Min temps could need to be adjusted with future updates. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Aloft, the region will remain along the southern periphery of a broad longwave trough extending across the East CONUS Sunday, before a notable h5 shortwave rounds its southwestern edge and approaches the Southeast United States, but likely tracks just south of the local area Monday, then far offshore Tuesday. Mid-lvl ridging then takes place on Tuesday, with its axis developing across the Carolinas. At the sfc, high pressure will slowly build across the region Sunday, then persist through Tuesday, in wake a front positioned well offshore and south of the region. The presence of the high and northwest downslope wind aloft will likely maintain dry conditions for most areas Sunday through Tuesday, with model soundings also indicating a fairly large amount of dry air in the low-mid lvls locally. However, there appears to be a slight chance for a shower and/or thunderstorm Monday afternoon, mainly along a sea breeze circulation across Southeast South Carolina when peak h5 vort energy traverses near the area. The presence of a the dry downslope pattern along with ridging taking place by Tuesday suggests a warming trend early week, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s Sunday, peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. Strong radiational cooling nights under clear skies and light/calm winds should favor lows in the low- mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aloft, mid-lvl ridging will prevail over the Southeast United States mid-week, likely remaining in control of the weather pattern through early Thursday, before beginning to shift offshore Friday while h5 shortwave energy advances across the Deep South. At the sfc, high pressure stretched across the western Atlantic and across the Southeast will favor an onshore flow, ushering moisture into the local area through late week. The combination of increasing low-lvl moisture, abundant sfc heating, and approaching mid-lvl energy should yield diurnal convection (showers and thunderstorms) as early as Thursday, but more likely Friday and Saturday. Temps will remain above normal, generally in the upper 80s to around 90 Wednesday and Thursday, and lower 90s Friday and Saturday. Lows will also be mild, generally in the mid-upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast Tuesday night, Wednesday night and Thursday night, then mainly in the low-mid 70s across most areas this weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through 18Z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Overnight, quiet conditions are expected offshore with westerly winds around 10-15 kt and seas averaging 2-3 feet. Sunday through Thursday: Aloft, the region will remain along the southern periphery of a broad trough Sunday, before a h5 shortwave approaches the Southeast, but remains inland and south of local waters through early week. At the sfc, a front will remain well offshore and south of local waters, leaving high pressure to dominate the pattern early week. Other than a few showers or isolated thunderstorm developing along an afternoon sea breeze and potentially drifting offshore, marine conditions are expected to remain quiet, with light offshore winds each morning (land breeze), becoming onshore during the afternoon (sea breeze), peaking in the 10-15 kt range, although a few gusts to 20 kt are possible along the Charleston County Coast with a sea breeze developing each day. Seas will generally range between 1-2 ft. By mid-week, mid-lvl ridging becomes centered across the Carolinas while an axis of sfc high pressure remains stretched from the western Atlantic to the Carolinas, just north of local waters. The pattern will steer winds onshore both day and night mid-week, with speeds generally in the 10-15 kt range across most waters, although a slightly tighter pressure gradient could lead to gusts up to 20 kt across Georgia waters. The long fetch should help build seas mid- week, approaching 2-4 ft by Thursday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232764 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 PM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - There is a threat of strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through this evening. The highest coverage is expected on the Eastern Shore. - Turning cool tonight with lows dipping into the 40s inland. Low pressure continues to deepen and occlude over New England, with sfc analysis placing the center over southern New Hampshire as of 3 PM. An anomalous upper trough and shortwave sliding through the area this afternoon has kicked off scattered shower/storm development, with the highest coverage currently over the Eastern Shore. With the trough supporting cold temps aloft, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km per latest SPC mesoanalysis) are in place over the area. Thus, storms appear capable of producing small to localized large hail. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates and dry air aloft would also support a damaging wind threat with any organized storm, especially if any clusters or lines can develop. The kinematic environment is characterized by 25-35 kt of effective shear N of the NC/VA border with 30-40 kt S, with the steep lapse rates supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. All in all, expect a continued threat for strong to locally severe storms, especially for eastern and southeast portions of the area through the evening. SPC upgraded the Eastern Shore to a Level 2 out 5 (Slight) Risk with their early afternoon update and a Level 1 out 5 (Marginal) Risk remains in place for all other areas. Storms should gradually move E/SE through this evening, lingering longest over SE VA and NE NC. Would expect most activity to be off the coast by 9-10 PM per the latest CAMs. In terms of the temperature forecast, temps have generally warmed into the mid-upper 70s across the area, except where rain/storms have moved through. Highs could touch the lower 80s across southern VA and NE NC. Cool temps are expected tonight as high pressure builds in and winds lighten and lows in the mid-upper 40s are expected inland with lower-mid 50s at the immediate coast. Can`t rule out some lower 40s if winds go calm near sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with a significant warming trend then starting Tuesday. A strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Monday. At the surface, a stationary front S likely stays just S of the forecast area, but could encroach the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound in the evening. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. There remains a low probability that a few showers or storms could sneak into portions of far srn VA and NE NC later in the evening Sunday, depending on the evolution of the sfc front. However, recent CAM runs keep the vast majority of any precip (and instability) S of our CWA. SPC still has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sunday, but am not expecting any severe wx locally at this time. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid- upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low- mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. By Tuesday, the sfc high begins to shift offshore as a ridge axis sets up along the Appalachians and East Coast. This favors a noticeable warmup with highs in the 80s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Ridging looks to remain over the eastern CONUS through most of the extended period. This will favor a significant warmup continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs swing to above normal levels by Wednesday and widespread upper 80s-lower 90s highs are expected by Thursday and Friday. Ensembles show the ridge breaking down by Friday as some sort of trough approaches from the W. This will likely bring a return to at least diurnal showers and thunderstorms. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... SCT-BKN mid-level CU (bases 5-7k ft) has developed this afternoon at the local terminals, with locally BKN skies at SBY. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop this afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY from 19-22z and lowest confidence at RIC. Elsewhere (ORF, PHF, ECG), have medium confidence of showers/storms in the 20-00z timeframe. A TEMPO captures these potential storms at SBY with PROB30 groups elsewhere. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms, along with reduced VSBY. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. SKC continues into the first part of Sunday with generally light W-WSW winds. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few showers in NE NC Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Currituck Sound and rivers through this evening and have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay through early Sunday morning. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. Gusty westerly winds of 15-25 kt continue this afternoon, especially over the lower and western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs for the rivers and Currituck Sound have been extended through 7 PM given the gustiness is expected to persist for a few more hours. With seas below 5 ft on the coastal waters and only nearshore gusts of 20-25 kt, will keep these zones headline- free through tonight. Showers/tstms are also expected through this afternoon and evening, with some potentially strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Recent guidance and wind probabilities have trended upward with this wind surge as pressure rises around 6 mb/6 hr overspread the area. With solid gusts to 25 kt and 2-3 ft waves expected for most of the bay, have elected to just extend the SCA through tonight into early Sunday for all of the bay. This is despite a likely lull in the winds around sunset this evening. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>638. && $$ |
| #1232763 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. A few showers are possible across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - There is a threat of strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through this evening. The highest coverage is expected on the Eastern Shore. - Turning cool tonight with lows dipping into the 40s inland. Low pressure continues to deepen and occlude over New England, with sfc analysis placing the center over southern New Hampshire as of 3 PM. An anomalous upper trough and shortwave sliding through the area this afternoon has kicked off scattered shower/storm development, with the highest coverage currently over the Eastern Shore. With the trough supporting cold temps aloft, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km per latest SPC mesoanalysis) are in place over the area. Thus, storms appear capable of producing small to localized large hail. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates and dry air aloft would also support a damaging wind threat with any organized storm, especially if any clusters or lines can develop. The kinematic environment is characterized by 25-35 kt of effective shear N of the NC/VA border with 30-40 kt S, with the steep lapse rates supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. All in all, expect a continued threat for strong to locally severe storms, especially for eastern and southeast portions of the area through the evening. SPC upgraded the Eastern Shore to a Level 2 out 5 (Slight) Risk with their early afternoon update and a Level 1 out 5 (Marginal) Risk remains in place for all other areas. Storms should gradually move E/SE through this evening, lingering longest over SE VA and NE NC. Would expect most activity to be off the coast by 9-10 PM per the latest CAMs. In terms of the temperature forecast, temps have generally warmed into the mid-upper 70s across the area, except where rain/storms have moved through. Highs could touch the lower 80s across southern VA and NE NC. Cool temps are expected tonight as high pressure builds in and winds lighten and lows in the mid-upper 40s are expected inland with lower-mid 50s at the immediate coast. Can`t rule out some lower 40s if winds go calm near sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with a significant warming trend then starting Tuesday. A strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Monday. At the surface, a stationary front S likely stays just S of the forecast area, but could encroach the vicinity of the Albemarle Sound in the evening. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. There remains a low probability that a few showers or storms could sneak into portions of far srn VA and NE NC later in the evening Sunday, depending on the evolution of the sfc front. However, recent CAM runs keep the vast majority of any precip (and instability) S of our CWA. SPC still has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sunday, but am not expecting any severe wx locally at this time. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid- upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low- mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. By Tuesday, the sfc high begins to shift offshore as a ridge axis sets up along the Appalachians and East Coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Aloft, an upper level trough slides offshore Tue with a ridge moving into the East Coast from mid to late week. The EURO/EPS has trended towards the GFS/GEFS in showing a more progressive pattern as opposed to a cutoff low lingering near the coast early next week. As such, confidence has increased in a significant warmup beginning Tue and continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs increase from the mid 80s Tue to the upper 80s Wed and around 90F Thu and Fri. Dry weather is expected with this warmup through Thu night. Ensembles show signs of a trough approaching by Fri into the weekend, leading to an unsettled pattern developing. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... SCT-BKN mid-level CU (bases 5-7k ft) has developed this afternoon at the local terminals, with locally BKN skies at SBY. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop this afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY from 19-22z and lowest confidence at RIC. Elsewhere (ORF, PHF, ECG), have medium confidence of showers/storms in the 20-00z timeframe. A TEMPO captures these potential storms at SBY with PROB30 groups elsewhere. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms, along with reduced VSBY. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. SKC continues into the first part of Sunday with generally light W-WSW winds. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few showers in NE NC Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 1040 AM EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 1 PM today and the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound through 4 PM this afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. A vigorous upper trough is pushing across the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. At the surface, 986mb low pressure is centered over New England, with the trailing cold front well offshore. Winds have dropped off quite a bit compared to earlier this morning, with W winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Earlier Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs for the rest of this morning and afternoon. The SCA for the srn coastal waters was also expired as of the 10 AM update with the nrn coastal waters SCA in effect through 4 PM due to lingering winds and seas. A WSW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt persists through this aftn for the nearshore waters, primarily the rivers and Currituck Sound where SCAs have been extended through 4 PM. Seas/waves subside to 3-4ft/2-3ft by this aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected this aftn, and again, some could be strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay, primarily N of New Point Comfort. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>638. && $$ |
| #1232762 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 342 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring scattered showers and gusty southwest to west winds as it passes through Southern New England late this afternoon into tonight. Mostly clear and generally dry to start Sunday but increasing cloudiness and westerly breezes will lead to a cooler than normal first day of June. Dry weather then continues into the workweek, although with a warming trend. Very warm temperatures likely by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 330 PM Update: Key Messages: * Scattered t-storms in interior central/northern MA dissipate and lift northward into New Hampshire by 6 PM. * Gusty to strong SW winds up to 50 mph for southeast New England thru 10 PM, possible minor tree damage coninues into early this evening. Wind Advisory remains valid. * Cloudy with scattered showers thru midnight, then clearing but with west breezes 25-35 mph. Details: Seasonably-strong, 982 mb low was moving through western MA this afternoon. Ahead of it in a region of pretty strong low-level convergence is a line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms mainly in Worcester County on northward into NH. CAPE values are highest in northern/northeast MA at around 1000 J/kg, which is also where the more active corridor of CG/CC flashes are. We don`t expect severe weather to develop as this activity lifts off toward the ENE over the next couple of hours. Risk for any thunderstorms after 6 PM then becomes essentially nil, having pulled away into NH. It`s otherwise a partly to mostly cloudy day but also rather breezy. SW gusts have been in the 25-35 mph range commonly, but have been punching into the 40-45 mph range over Cape Cod and the Islands where a Wind Advisory was posted earlier. There`s been a couple reports of trees downed in the Edgartown and Dartmouth, MA areas. Winds over southeast New England have been on the uptick especially of recent, and the core of a 45-50 kt 975 mb SW low- level jet is expected to pass through this area during the late afternoon to early evening. Strongest WSW gusts mainly over the Islands but we could see gusts in the 45-50 mph range along the South Coast, Cape and Islands thru 7 PM, then tend to decrease in speed thereafter. Minor instances of tree damage could occur in the strongest winds given that trees have a full canopy of leaves, but significant wind impacts aren`t anticipated. Conditions should turn less active by early this evening, although we`ll still be dealing with cloud cover and scattered showers thru midnight, along with WNW breezes 25-30 mph. This occurs as the upper level trough and associated low-level cold advection develops with wraparound showers as sfc low pulls into northern New England. Showers should come to an end by late evening/midnight but not expecting downpours. Cloud cover will be slower to shake free of, but most areas should trend to mostly clear with decreased WNW breezes by daybreak. Lows in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM Update: Key Messages: * Cloud cover increases again Sunday, along with west breezes 25-30 mph. * Cooler than normal highs in the mid 60s, lows mid 40s/near 50. Sunday: Cyclonic flow aloft entrenches itself over Southern New England on Sunday. Although we are looking at dry weather for Sunday, it will still be cooler than normal, with another period of westerly breezes redeveloping shortly after daybreak as deeper mixing gets going. Westerly gusts 25-30 mph are anticipated into Sunday. Late in the day, a second embedded shortwave disturbance in the broader cyclonic flow digs into NY. With the cooler air aloft and diurnal heating, it should again lead to partly to mostly cloudy conditions. So in general a better day than compared to today (Saturday), but still cooler than normal to open the month of June with temps in the mid/upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. Sunday Night: Diurnally-generated mostly cloudy conditions then stands to decrease into Sunday evening. The decreased cloud cover should allow for better radiational cooling, offset by continued W/WNW winds. Should see rather widespread lows in the mid 40s Sunday evening, with lows around 50 for the coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Points * Warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday * Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday * Dry through much of the week, turning more unsettled toward Thursday and Friday. An upper-level trough remains over the region on Monday, with the last bit of shortwave energy moving through on Monday afternoon/evening. With dry mid-level air, not expecting widespread shower activity, but expect increased cloud cover during the afternoon. 850mb temperatures start the day around 3 C, but warm to near 7 C in the afternoon. This should help afternoon high temperatures recover into the low 70s away from the coasts. The upper-level trough finally moves offshore Tuesday, with a strong upper-level ridge building in from the west. High temperatures warm quickly through midweek, in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday, then mid to upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. Not out of the question that some low 90s will show up in our typical hotspots like Norwood and Bradley, with NBM (QMD) showing moderate probabilities around 50% for 90F+. Southerly surface flow will help dewpoints climb through the week, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday, then low to mid-60s on Thursday. If you are looking for somewhere to stay cool, the south coast and Islands will have highs in the 70s due to the cold ocean waters still in the 50s. As for precipitation this week, the upper-level ridge will suppress precipitation chances until late in the week as it begins to dampen and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Unfortunately, the rain chances continue to increase next weekend as guidance hints at a shortwave exiting the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Through 00z Sunday: Moderate confidence. Mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings generally lowest north and west of I-95. SCT SHRA/TSRA 18-23z mainly for ORH and BED with short- term TSRA thru 20z for BAF/BDL. After that, period of SHRA then continues. Gusty SW winds 25-35 kt with a windshift to WSW to WNW 20-23z. Stronger gusts increasing to 40-45 kt Cape and Islands. Tonight: High confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings thru 04z with periods of showers, then showers taper off and ceilings trend to VFR second half of the night. Gusty WSW/WNW winds 25-35 kt thru 03z, then decreases and becomes 15-25 kt overnight. Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR. West winds 10-15 kt with gusts 23-28 kt 13-22z, then gusts decrease after 22z and continue to decrease overnight. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence. BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings with gusty SW winds 25-28 kt, shift to westerly around 30-35 kt 20-23z. Low chance at TS before 23z, but think better chances for ORH/BED. Periods SCT SHRA 23-04z, then improving to VFR. BDL TAF...Moderate confidence. TS ends by 20z, with MVFR bases and periods SCT SHRA thru 21-03z before improving to VFR. W winds 15-18 kt with upper 20s-kt gusts then decrease late tonight. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Gale warnings continue thru late this evening on southern waters, as southerly gusts should coninue to run in the 35-45 kt range on these waters with rough seas. Winds through this afternoon should trend comparatively lighter (25-30 kt) on the eastern waters, with a windshift to W around 25-30 kt on all waters tonight. The gale warnings will eventually need to be downshifted to small craft advisories, and all small craft headlines will likely need to be extended into Sunday with westerly winds 25-30 kt. Secondly, while it will be far from an ideal beach day either the rest of today and on Sunday, the stronger winds and elevated seas will lead to a high risk for rip currents on the Islands. Rip Current Statements have been issued for the rest of today and into Sunday. Those who are venturing to the beach should swim near lifeguards and be aware of the potential for rip currents. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for MAZ023-024. RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for RIZ005-007-008. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for RIZ008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 231-251. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. && $$ |
| #1232761 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 31.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 257 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period, but an approaching cold front from the north will lead to BKN decks around FL050 and SCT decks around FL030. COnfidence is low related to the onset and intensity of any shower activity due to the decaying nature of the front, but conditions will gradually deteriorate into tonight and early tomorrow morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 We continue to monitor a cold front sliding down the Florida peninsula this morning. The leading edge is located approximately 130 northwest of Key West, and 110 miles northwest of Key Largo. Looking outside of our window, we can see some of the high cirrus associated with this front in the distance. Otherwise, GOES-19 visible imagery shows mostly sunny skies across much of the island chain. Of note, current satellite imagery also shows an extensive stream or wildfire from Canada extending through the Plains, the Midwest, and reaching as far south as the Florida- Georgia line. 11 AM EDT observations showed temperatures in the mid 80s, so we suggest that everyone consider stepping outside and enjoying the sunshine for a little bit today as the likelihood of unsettled weather is going to soar over the next few days. Due to the close proximity of the cold front, the 12Z balloon from this morning doesn`t offer a vertical profile that is as representative of the current environment. Regardless, it showed a shallow layer of moisture near the surface, relatively drier air in the mid levels, and then and impressively moist upper level. Calculated PWAT was 1.36 inches, but the CIMSS MIMIC Total PWAT shows only a sliver of similar values in the area. Outside of this sliver, PWAT values seem to be closer to 1.5 to 1.6 inches. Wind direction was southwesterly through much of the sounding, so the initial thinking was that we would have to keep our eyes open for reverse cloudline development, but winds in the lower levels have already shifted westerly, so any cloudline is starting to look less likely. No updates or changes are needed to the current forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a strengthening low pressure system continues moving northeastward into New England today. Its associated cold front will continue pressing southeastward stalling somewhere over the Central to South Florida Peninsula for most of the weekend. This will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes across our waters. Also, a generally wetter regime will result with an increase in coverage area of showers and thunderstorms through the early part of next week. Breezes will shift back to the east to southeast towards the middle of next week as a high pressure system moves across the Eastern U.S. and moves into the western North Atlantic by mid week. Moisture will remain keeping the unsettled pattern in place. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with surface winds between 5 and 10 knots oscillating between southwest to northwest today. A cold front over the Florida peninsula will slow down its progression to our area, and confidence is still low as to how much, if any, convection will reach either terminal. Will make amendments as appropriate later. && .CLIMATE... In 2018, Key West experienced its wettest May ever with 14.17" of rain recorded. Precipitation records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 87 79 85 / 20 30 60 70 Marathon 81 88 79 87 / 20 40 60 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232760 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 322 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Troughing will continue over the Carolinas this afternoon as another cold front approaches. The front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore late next week, increasing moisture and rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sat... Key Messages: - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, with potential for damaging winds and large hail. We`re continuing to monitor the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon through early this evening. Though the limiting factors remain (limited moisture and instability) recent radar returns over VA and high res model guidance maintain the potential for showers and thunderstorms making their way south into NC later this afternoon/evening. Strong wind shear and lower freezing heights introduce the potential for large hail if strong storms do form, with an accompanying threat for damaging wind gusts. Scattered shower and thunderstorm potential will continue through this evening from north to south, though the severe threat will be lower the later we get into the night. Convection along a secondary cold front will push offshore around midnight with even cooler and drier air moving in behind it. Lows will range from the mid 50s over the coastal plain to low 60s along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sat...Pleasant conditions persist tomorrow with cooler high pressure over the region. Expect highs mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Afternoon moisture return over SC and interior NC will ooze eastward towards ENC late in the day, and some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the western coastal plain as moisture and instability increases. Will need to monitor for the potential of a late day/evening severe threat if instability develops as advertised, as there will be ample deep layer shear present and approaching mid level support. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Thursday highs are expected to be near 90 inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. Friday high pressure offshore will help funnel gulf moisture ahead of a trough moving through Saturday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow/... As of 3 PM Sat...VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with drier high pressure over the area. Isolated to scattered convection late this afternoon and evening will bring the threat of temporary sub-VFR conditions but this threat will end before midnight. LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 PM Sat... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions continue through tonight - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Small craft conditions continue across the coastal waters as SW winds remain 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Winds will strengthen slightly through the rest of the afternoon and then begin to decrease after sunset as a secondary cold front moves through the region. By early tomorrow morning winds will become NW at 10-15 kts, and will then continue to subside the rest of tomorrow morning. A weak sea breeze will develop tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming S at 5-10 kts. Seas will be 4-6 ft through early tonight, and then subside to 2-4 ft tomorrow. LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday night into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232759 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 212 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chances (<10-20%) for showers this evening across the southern Brush Country. Surface high pressure that has brought fair weather and slight northeasterly winds will move toward the Deep South resulting in the return of southeasterly, onshore flow tonight. Hi-res guidance still is throwing out isolated showers across the Southern Brush Country and into the RGV late this afternoon and into the evening. Given the low confidence in this scenario, no blending was done to the NBM PoPs since they generally maxed out at 10-20% in Duval and Webb County. Sunday is looking to remain partly to mostly sunny, allowing the Brush Country to warm back into the upper 90s and low 100s, while remaining slightly above normal elsewhere. The Heat Risk will remain at Moderate (level 2 of 4) in the Brush Country while remaining at Minor risk (level 1 of 4) elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wed/Thu next week. - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country mid-late next week. The forecast for the upcoming week keeps slowly back tracking on rain chances as ridging generally maintains control aloft. The first ridge will build overhead early in the week, before its center drifts eastward around mid week, and then another high pressure center takes a hold from the southwest. Low rain/storm chances (<25%) are forecast Wednesday and Thursday as PWATs briefly increase to near 1.8-2.0" and combine with daytime instability and the sea- breeze to spark isolated convection. The rest of the week will mostly be dry, but even drier conditions can be expected late week as a Saharan Dust plume begins to reach into our area. This could impact visibilities and possibly increase the risk for respiratory issues. Temperatures will be increasingly warmer throughout the week, and nearing 105 degrees out west by next weekend. The risk for heat related impacts will climb to Major to Extreme levels by mid week, and persist through the weekend. The highest heat threat will reside out west over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Fair weather CU continue to spread across South Texas with afternoon heating. Light showers continue to move eastwards across the northeastern Mexican states. This will briefly introduce a low chance (10-30%) of light showers for KLRD and KCOT. This concludes by sunset, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog is showing up in hi-res guidance for KALI and KVCT from Sunday 09Z-14Z, before returning to VFR in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeasterly flow with 1-2 ft seas persist through Sunday morning. Winds in the inland bays and nearshore waters will briefly gust up to moderate (BF 4) strength Sunday afternoon. Onshore flow will increase to a moderate to at times fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Monday evening, persisting through the end of next week. There`s a 15-25% chance for showers mid to late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 73 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 76 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 10 Alice 74 97 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 Rockport 78 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232757 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 PM 31.May.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 311 PM AST Sat May 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * An extensive and dense plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will affect the local islands through midweek next week. * Warmer than normal temperatures are likely to continue during the next few days across most coastal and lower elevations of the islands. * An increase in surface winds will induce some moderate to locally fresh winds, resulting in wind-driven seas. Therefore, small craft operators should exercise caution. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday... The mid to upper level cloud deck that affected the islands during the past couple of days has mostly moved away towards our east, however some mid to upper level cloudiness has remained. These cloud decks are mainly due a disturbance over South America and an upper trough, that is now well north of the local islands. However, another trough is moving in from our west and should linger through the weekend. A mid-level ridge is also present and will remain nearly stationary over the region during the period and will continue to support a trade wind inversion (detected by the 12Z sounding), effectively suppressing deep convective development across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This pattern is forecast to continue with drier air in the mid levels, as a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) also moves in, cutting off moist air in the upper levels and maintaining low level moisture below 800mb. Precipitable water (PWAT) will be at seasonal values during the period, gradually decreasing today and tomorrow. A wind surge will also cross the region from today into Sunday and will increase moisture advection towards windward sectors while another increase in winds is forecast late in the period and into the long term forecast period. In general up to breezy east to east-southeast winds will continue due to a surface high over the Atlantic. A dense Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is soon to arrive, its bulk is currently reaching the Windward and Leeward Islands, and it`s leading edge is filtering into the local islands. Current model guidance continues to indicate that the bulk of this SAL will move into the area this evening from the east/southeast, further deteriorating air quality and resulting in hazy skies, drier air aloft, lower visibilities and adverse conditions for immunocompromised, vulnerable and sensitive groups. This is a moderate to high SAL event, please follow your doctor`s and your Health Department`s recommendations. Despite the Saharan Dust and accompanying dry air, above mentioned instability and diurnal heating can continue to promote shower and isolated thunderstorm development, with afternoon activity concentrating over NW PR and downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Overnight and morning trade wind showers will also continue over windward sectors of the islands. Breezy east- to- east-southeast winds will continue to promote a limited to elevated heat threat for urban and coastal areas, the presence of Saharan Dust and the absence of the mid to upper level cloud deck that was over the islands during the next few days will also contribute to this heat threat. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Please refer to the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOSJU) and it`s graphical format (weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju) for more information. .LONG TERM...Tuesday trough Saturday...From Prev Discussion... The long-term forecast remains on track. According to the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model V5, a dense plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continue to affect the northeastern Caribbean through midweek. The model indicates that the highest concentrations are expected early in the period, with aerosol optical thickness values nearing 0.5. This pattern will result in hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and deteriorated air quality through at least Wednesday. Although the most intense dust presence is forecast for the first part of the week, low to moderate concentrations are expected to linger into the upcoming weekend. Residents and visitors, particularly those with respiratory conditions, are advised to take appropriate health precautions during this period. At the surface, a high-pressure system will promote southeasterly winds through Tuesday, gradually shifting from the east as the high moves into the central Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over the region during the early part of the week, favoring a drier and more stable environment aloft. Precipitable water values will remain below climatological normals, near or below 1.5 inches, limiting overall shower activity across the area. However, locally induced showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon across western Puerto Rico, due to diurnal heating and local effects. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit in coastal and urban areas, and in the low 80s across higher elevations. Heat indices may exceed 108F during the peak of the event, particularly across north-central Puerto Rico. These hot and dry conditions, combined with poor air quality, could pose additional health risks, especially for the more vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, brief SHRA/TSRA this afternoon may cause tempo MVFR cigs at TJBQ/TJSJ thru 31/22z. The 31/12z TJSJ sounding indicated ESE winds up to 19 kt blo FL100. HZ due to Saharan dust will gradually move across the local area tonight, and linger through at least early Wednesday. VSBY could drop to around 6SM during the next few days. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure building over the Atlantic Basin will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the next few days. Southeast winds will prevail through the weekend, becoming more easterly early next week. Small craft should exercise caution across portions of the offshore waters and local Caribbean passages. Hazy skies and reduced visibilities are expected through mid-week as another dense plume of Saharan dust moves toward the area. && .BEACH FORECAST... A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the south to southeast beaches of the islands through the rest of the weekend. Elsewhere, the risk remains low. Nonetheless, swimmers are urged to use caution, especially near piers, reefs, and other structures where dangerous rip currents are more likely to form unexpectedly. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001-005-008- 010. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232756 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 31.May.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 226 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 With the whole forecast area now post frontal, dry NW flow is making for a noticeably cooler and more comfortable day. RH values topping out in the 30s and 40s and High temps generally staying below 90. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s, a little warmer along the coast. Then a slightly warmer day in store for tomorrow as flow becomes more zonal, with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The upper trough will shift east of the area during this period allowing a ridge to build over the area. Surface high pressure will also be in place resulting in dry weather and low humidity to continue. Lows will generally be in the upper 60s with highs Monday in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Rain-free weather will remain with us through Tuesday before the surface high moves far enough east to allow for return flow to gradually increase moisture levels and bring a return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. Coverage will gradually increase as we get later in the week as a trough approaches from the southeast. Morning lows will return to the 70s with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s with some mid 90s in FL on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions throughout the period, with only a few mid level clouds lingering near KECP and KTLH. Winds becoming northwesterly and generally staying under 10 kts. A couple gusts to around 15 kts may also be possible this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Winds will be light and variable for a few days before easterlies set in for mid week, occasionally reaching 15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Post frontal dry NW flow bringing RH values down today and Sunday. High mixing heights with light to modest transport winds will lead to higher dispersions in place. Moisture will start creeping back in from monday on, with precip chances returning later in the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Although recent rainfall has caused a couple of rivers to rise into action stage, dry conditions are expected for the next several days and no flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 69 87 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 63 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 69 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232754 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 119 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. This boundary will also lead to the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially along the river and south into Mexico through this afternoon. By this evening rain chances will taper off as the boundary moves north with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday, topping out between 100 and 105 degrees for much of the CWA. Overnight lows tonight and Sunday night will fall into the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Mid-level ridge should continue to be the major influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period. This will mean that outside of a few rogue showers, that rain chances will be very limited. Meanwhile, at the surface, the southeasterly winds are expected to persist through the period as well allowing for more warm moist air to move into the area during the period. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s for the long term forecast period. The high temperatures are expected to be generally in the 90s for the area. However parts of Zapata and Starr counties could get into the triple digits during the period. While there are pockets of Major (level 3 out of 4) for heat risk during the period, the heat indices are expected to remain around 105-108, which is below the criteria for Heat Advisory. However, a Special Weather Statement for heat is not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this afternoon though confidence is too low to include in the current TAF forecast. North To northeasterly winds will become more east- southeasterly through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Now through Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Seas of around 2 feet are expected with 5 to 6 second periods. Monday through Next Saturday...A slightly elevated pressure gradient between low pressure in the Plains and high pressure over the Gulf will result in moderate southeasterly winds through next Saturday and thus in turn build the seas. This will result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution for parts of the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters during the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 92 78 91 / 10 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 92 75 93 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 77 96 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 79 86 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232755 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 114 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Weak high surface pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend keeping the weather generally quiet. The biggest question is whether isolated to widely scattered showers will pop up late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a fast- moving upper disturbance barrels into the area embedded within the overall upper trough axis. Since the timing looks to coincide with peak daytime heating, it seems we should see at least a few showers develop as the shortwave moves into and through the area. And indeed, most CAM guidance agrees on this scenario, though the specifics are quite varied. That being said, have continued to carry generally 15-20% POPs to account for the low-end, location-specific rain chances. Regarding temperatures, expect lows in the mid to upper 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s south, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s on Sunday. This is near normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An elongated upper high will control the area weather Monday and Tuesday leading to generally quiet conditions and a gradual warming trend as surface high pressure slides east of the local area with warm and moist air moving back into the area from the Gulf. Expect temperatures to be near or slightly above normal with no significant rain chances. The upper high begins to break down Wednesday as a fast-moving upper disturbance moves toward the middle Mississippi valley. The front associated with this system will stall WELL northwest of the area, keeping us entrenched in a warm and humid airmass. Expect to see typical summer-like showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours driven by the diurnal heating cycle. Beyond Friday, please resist the urge buy into any individual model forecasts regarding a tropical low that may or may not form around central America during the second week of June associated with the Central American gyre (CAG). The CAG is a seasonal area of low pressure that typically forms near Central America during the May-June timeframe. Tropical lows associated with the CAG can develop on either the Pacific or Atlantic side of the continent, and their specific genesis locations greatly affect their eventual paths. With that said, there is little to no confidence 7+ days out regarding whether or where the CAG might result in cyclogenesis. Remember to make sure you are following reliable sources for your weather information. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure results in mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A stalled boundary over the northern Gulf will keep winds light and somewhat variable today. The front will move northward again Sunday with a return to onshore flow. As the gradient gradually tightens, expect wind speeds to slowly strengthen to 10 to 15 knots by midweek. Rain chances will generally remain low for the remainder of today and tomorrow, but will gradually increase through midweek with a return to daily scattered showers and storms Wed through Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 86 65 88 / 0 20 10 10 BTR 67 88 70 90 / 0 20 10 10 ASD 64 88 68 89 / 0 10 20 10 MSY 70 89 73 89 / 0 10 20 10 GPT 66 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 10 PQL 64 87 67 88 / 0 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232753 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 203 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring a round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through this morning. A period of drier weather is expected late morning into the afternoon before another round of scattered showers arrives later today into tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible too. Drier weather follows Sunday into much of next week, except Thursday and/or Friday, with the risk for scattered showers & thunderstorms. A warming trend is likely too, with highs in the 80s mid to late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Gusty to Strong Southwest Wind Gusts for Southeast New England, peaking between 2-7 PM. Wind Advisory issued until 10 PM for gusts 45-50 mph for southeast RI, southeast MA and Cape Cod/Islands. * Widely Scattered T-storms mainly in interior Southern New England to I-95 between 2-7 PM. Made a few adjustments to the forecast. Overcast skies early have started to scatter out across southeast New England, including the Cape and Islands. This has led to some modest heating/mixing and is leading to southwesterly gusts in the 35 mph range, even as far north as Norwood and Boston. However gusts Further southwest in the cloudy air across Long Island and NYC/northern NJ, gusts of 35-40 kt have been pretty common. NAM/RAP/HRRR profiles show a southwesterly low level jet moving across the south coast during the afternoon to early evening, with the NAM showing 975 mb winds 45-50 kt! As long as we can stay with partial sun, we should be able to mix a good portion of this jetcore leading to gusts peaking in the 45-50 mph range. Given that some may have made it to the beaches with this clearing, we opted for a wind advisory for these southeast coastal areas until 10 PM. Also monitoring the potential for re-developing scattered showers/t-storms mainly in interior Southern New England during the 2-7 PM timeframe. With cloud cover trending toward more of scattered to broken cumulus look, modest heating has allowed for temps to warm into the mid 60s. Additional heating should allow for a narrow corridor of weak instability (CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg) from about Orange to Hartford eastward to Lawrence and southward into the Providence area, as sfc low near the Litchfield Hills pulls NE into north-central MA. Already are a few deepening cores currently per day-cloud-phase satellite imagery coming off the Berkshires and into NW Hartford County, with expectations that this activity and additional scattered t-storms could develop northeastward following recent NAM-3km/HRRR trends. Severe weather not expected but lightning and brief gusts to 40 mph possible in stronger cells. Previous discussion... We`re in the thick of the much advertised period of widespread rain showers with some elevated thunderstorms associated with an anomolous mid level trough which is currently digging into New England. Mesoscale analysis and WV satellite imagery show the center of the vertically stacked low directly over the Mid Atlantic where the heaviest rainfall currently is falling. As this low lifts directly over SNE the heaviest and steadiest bands of precipitation will fall to the NW of the low, over western MA and CT. This is where the most rainfall is expected by the time all is said and done Saturday evening. We continue to expect generally 1 to 2 inches of rain, but with locally higher amounts as high resolution guidance indicates the potential for as much as 3 to 4 inches; at this time those highest amounts are more likely just to the west of our region. Regardless, some localized street flooding is possible, especially under any training cells or convection. Instability is marginal (up to 500-850 mb) and elevated so not expecting any severe weather, but rather garden variety thunderstorms embedded in showers, especially between 8 am and 2 pm. A dry slot eventually moves over eastern MA/RI bringing an end to widespread rainfall by mid to late morning. Rain likely continues most of the day further west. Then, some additional moisture is pulled in on the back side in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave rounds the base of the trough. This may kick off another round of less widespread showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two, generally along and northwest of the I-95 corridor. Instability is more limited with this round (dependent on how many breaks of sun we get) and the shear environment is unfavorable, so severe weather is not expected. Showers come to an end by 10 pm with drier westerly flow bringing a good amount of clearing. Cold advection in the low/mid levels will support lows in the upper 40s (warmer along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry Sunday, but cooler than normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Dry on Sunday under westerly flow under slowly rising heights. The upper trough remains overhead with a cold pool aloft and this together with lingering low/mid level moisture will lead to a good amount of diurnal cloud cover. Given the colder air aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry week ahead, a cold front late in the week brings the next chance for appreciable rainfall. * Warming trend this week, Wednesday and Thursday will be summery with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Fairly quiet weather on Monday, will have a mixture of clouds as the region is under cyclonic flow. 850mb temperatures begin to increase, from +3C Sunday to +7C Monday, resulting in warmer temperatures for Monday afternoon. Highs are in the upper 60s near the coast to the lower 70s inland. Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave pivots about the departing system, do not expect any precipitation as PWATs fall to less than 1/2". Mid-level trough moves off shore Tuesday with rising heights as the ridge shifts into New England. Dry and warming conditions Tuesday to Thursday, the one potential issue would be if the ridge pinches off the departing trough and results in weaker cut-off low east of the region. Only a few members show this, thus think the warm and dry conditions will prevail. 850mb temperatures Tuesday increase towards +8C and +10C, but really increase for Wednesday and Thursday as those temperatures are +15C to +18C. Should have highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast, near the coast those temperatures are in the lower 70s. Wednesday and Thursday it will be summer like with highs well into the 80s. Looking for relief the south coast will likely be a bit cooler in the upper 70s due to the SSW flow. And with this flow, will have increasing due points into the low 60s, so will feel muggy as well. As for nighttime relief, doesn`t appear to be much with lows Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday night in the low to middle 60s. Our next chance for rain would come late in the week, late Thursday or perhaps Friday as a cold front moves in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Through 00z Sunday: Moderate confidence. Mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings generally lowest north and west of I-95. SCT SHRA/TSRA 18-23z mainly for ORH and BED with short- term TSRA thru 20z for BAF/BDL. After that, period of SHRA then continues. Gusty SW winds 25-35 kt with a windshift to WSW to WNW 20-23z. Stronger gusts increasing to 40-45 kt Cape and Islands. Tonight: High confidence. BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings thru 04z with periods of showers, then showers taper off and ceilings trend to VFR second half of the night. Gusty WSW/WNW winds 25-35 kt thru 03z, then decreases and becomes 15-25 kt overnight. Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR. West winds 10-15 kt with gusts 23-28 kt 13-22z, then gusts decrease after 22z and continue to decrease overnight. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence. BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings with gusty SW winds 25-28 kt, shift to westerly around 30-35 kt 20-23z. Low chance at TS before 23z, but think better chances for ORH/BED. Periods SCT SHRA 23-04z, then improving to VFR. BDL TAF...Moderate confidence. TS ends by 20z, with MVFR bases and periods SCT SHRA thru 21-03z before improving to VFR. W winds 15-18 kt with upper 20s-kt gusts then decrease late tonight. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... Winds becoming SW 12-18z today followed by gusts to 25-35 kt developing, higher to 40 kts possible over southern waters. Seas building to 8-10 ft over southern waters as well. SCA in effect for all waters. Showers and sct t-storms moving over the waters this morning with poor vsbys in fog, with some improvement developing during the afternoon. Saturday night...High Confidence. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Seas 6-10 ft. Sunday...High Confidence. W winds 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts. Seas 4-7 ft. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for RIZ005-007-008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 231-251. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. && $$ |
| #1232752 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 31.May.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 157 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The front that pushed through Tampa this morning will end up stalling just to our south. This will be the focus for shower activity over the weekend and into our Monday. Similiar to today we will see shower activity starting to form in the Gulf after midnight and then move towards the coast. The showers should start around the Tampa Bay area before moving south towards Southwest Florida. Once again by the afternoon most of the shower activity should be dissipating. We will do the same thing again on Monday. By Tuesday the boundary starts to dissipate as some drier air from the north starts to filter. This will be temporary but should lower storm chances for everyone expect SW Florida on Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday an upper level low will push over the state. This will help to enhance our our shower and thunderstorm activity and will help to bring some stronger storms to the area. By next Friday the low will be departing and will leave us with a southeasterly flow. This should favor thunderstorm activity for the west coast as we go throughout the day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Most of the shower activity has moved out of the area with some some scattered light rain left. For the rest of the day we can expect VFR conditions with westerly winds. The front however will stall just south of Tampa and once again we can expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to form in the Gulf after midnight and move north to south through the morning hours. Storms look to form south of TPA, PIE and LAL. Can`t completely rule out a shower but chances to low for now to add to TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A stall front just south of Tampa will continue to give us some unsettled weather through Monday. Most of the thunderstorm activity is expected after midnight each day and lasting through the early afternoon before drying out. Winds will remain out of the west and northwest between 5 to 10 knots. The front will dissipate by Tuesday as drier air starting to filter in. Winds will also be shifting easterly between 5 to 10 knots. Winds will remain the same on Wednesday but an upper level low will help to bring storm chances back mainly for the coast areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A stalled out boundary just south of Tampa will keep our humidity up through Monday. Each day we can expect overnight and morning shower activity which will be helping our the current drought we are in. Some slight drier air filters in on Tuesday keep shower chances lower but only temporally. By next Wednesday an upper level low will be pushing through the state increasing storm chances once again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 87 77 90 / 20 20 30 40 FMY 75 87 75 90 / 70 70 60 80 GIF 71 89 72 89 / 20 30 20 60 SRQ 73 85 75 88 / 50 40 50 50 BKV 66 89 67 91 / 10 10 20 30 SPG 76 86 77 88 / 30 30 40 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1232751 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 154 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air and near to below-normal temperatures are expected over the weekend, with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible this evening, mainly across northern and western areas. A cold front will bring another chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm mainly from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .UPDATE... Aviation discussion updated below for 18z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has pushed offshore this morning although the 5h trough axis will be slower to shift offshore. In fact the 5h trough axis becomes hard to find as the base of the trough flattens and a couple shortwaves move through the flow aloft. Surface high to west weakly builds in today, with more westerly flow vs the more typical northwest flow following a cold front. The northwest flow will arrive with a secondary cold front that arrives very late tonight. Today`s post front airmass will be dry and breezy, but not really cooler. In fact highs will likely end up the same or possibly a degree or so warmer than Fri due to the much drier air and more abundant sunshine. Afternoon humidity is likely to dip under 40% along with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph as strong winds at the top of the mixed layer surface once some heating can get mixing going. The strongest shortwave moves across the area mid to late morning, setting up subsidence for much of the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a nice subsidence inversion in place for much of the afternoon as well as a deep layer of dry air aloft. As the post wave subsidence wanes, there will be a slight increase in PVA ahead of a much weaker shortwave expected late afternoon/evening. Guidance is split on potential with this wave. A lot of the reliable global models keep the area dry while the CAMs support some convection across the northern edges of the forecast area. The environment seems quite unfavorable for the development of anything more than a short-lived, low topped shower. It could be a case of the CAMs overdoing convection (as they has been the case recently) thus only carrying a slight chance pop for a few hours late in the day, but will not be shocked if nothing develops. Lows below normal tonight with the drier air mass and late surge of cooler air following a second cold front. Boundary layer winds will help keep temperatures warmer than what 850 temps around 10C would suggest. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday, a weak cold front/surface trough initially sent down by the aforementioned shortwave during the preceding night will stall, resulting in westerly low-level flow across the area. This boundary may drift back northward during the morning as its parent shortwave pivots away, but another shortwave will pivot down towards the area on Sunday, pushing the front offshore by early Monday morning. Enhanced low-level moisture (primarily around and below 700mb) over the Mid-South on the southwestern periphery of the broader eastern US trough is expected to translate east-southeastward across the southern Appalachians and combine with forcing provided by the trough and the surface cold front to yield scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the boundary. These should initiate upstream over the mountains and eventually reach the forecast area from late on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and relatively cool mid-level temperatures within the trough should yield at least weak instability with modest effective shear around 25-30 kts. SPC currently highlights northern and western portions of the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday, with a storm or two capable of producing severe wind gusts around 60mph and hail up to quarter size possible late in the afternoon as activity reaches the area before nocturnal cooling largely eliminates the already low severe threat. Otherwise, fast-moving showers should be the main story over Sunday evening and overnight, with winds turning northerly behind the front early Monday morning. Precip totals should generally average a tenth inch or less, but a couple stripes of higher amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range are possible where the heaviest rain occurs. As the trough axis swings through Monday afternoon, cold mid-level temps combined with surface heating may be enough to yield isolated pop-up showers, mainly along the sea breeze. Temperatures will hold near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-upper troughing shifts eastward and is replaced by ridging during the first half of the week. This will result in increasing temperatures, especially after high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday. A curious feature that has recently shown up in the guidance is a shortwave trough diving out of the Plains and setting up shop around the Florida Peninsula early in the week. The interplay between this wave and ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will determine how soon unsettled weather returns to the forecast area, especially as another broad trough is expected to cross the CONUS and reach the East late in the week, with an attendant cold front bringing rain chances back into the picture by Friday. Until any unsettled weather returns, however, temperatures are expected to warm above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s during the latter half of the week while lows gradually rise through the 60s with each passing night as dew points creep up in return flow around the offshore high. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR through 12Z Sunday. Gusty west- northwest winds will continue through the day as stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Winds drop under 10 kt in the evening with development. Winds will shift to the north in the pre-dawn hours a cold front drops down from the north. Winds will continue to veer around to a more E-SE flow by Sun aftn but will remain quite light and more variable in nature through Sunday. Soundings show a moist layer between 6k and 11k ft for a few hours from around 23z to 03z associated with trough aloft ahead of cold front. Added some SCT to BKN alto cu at this time, and could see a passing shower at LBT or ILM, but better chc to the north. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Offshore flow in the wake of a cold front will continue into this afternoon before winds start backing to southwest ahead of another front. The second front arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sun with northwest to north winds developing by the end of the period. Short duration of enhanced southwest flow this afternoon/evening may build seas to 3-5 ft, but otherwise seas will be 2-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southwest wind wave and a southeast swell. Sunday through Wednesday... The flow will become variable on Sunday as a surface trough lifts back northward during the day, with southerly flow around 10 kts during the afternoon ahead of another cold front. This front will push through during the night with northerly winds arriving in its wake early on Monday. Surface high pressure west of the area will shift closer to the coast and eventually move offshore on Wednesday. Expect winds to gradually veer to easterly, then southeasterly as this draws closer, although speeds should remain around 10 kts or less through Wednesday. Seas largely hold in the 1-2 ft range in light of the generally weak flow regime. Southeasterly swells of 1-2 ft at 8-9 sec over the weekend will be replaced by 1-2 ft northeasterly to easterly swells with a period of 6 sec early in the week. South- southwesterly wind waves over the weekend will become less prominent during the week as the northeasterly swell takes over. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232750 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Cold front has made it to the coast this morning and continue to slowly move offshore today. This has already started bringing some nice comfortable temps and dew pts to the northern half of the area and this should continue southward this morning. The front will get pushed back to at least the coast early Sunday and pivot between Venice and Lafayette sending the western part of the front well inland. Sunday should be another nice day, or at least most of it, before rain and storm chances increase once again. Model consensus has the area with light precip chances but we will bump these up a bit. An MCS will begin to develop late today from the short wave currently over the Dakotas. This feature will drop almost due south today through Sunday bringing most of the storms into TX and western LA by Sunday. We should see the complex of storms moving through eastern Colorado tonight. Some of the outflow from this may be able to spark some storms along the frontal boundary by late Sunday so we have bumped up numbers across the area for this. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A diurnal driven few days of sh/ts for the start of the new week then we should see another cold front moving SE by mid week approaching the area, but this one looks to stall before getting here. But it may be able to keep our rain chances in the normal range for summer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure results in mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A cold front is currently moving offshore and most winds over the coastal waters have shifted to north at around 15kt. The front will stall over the northern gulf later this morning. Winds will become light and variable by late today. Light onshore flow will develop once again Sun and slowly rise to 10-15kt by mid week. A small window of very little storm activity will occur late this morning through a good portion of Sun, but outside that window, chances for strong or severe storms, although low, will remain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 20 10 BTR 86 67 88 69 / 0 0 20 10 ASD 86 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 20 MSY 86 71 88 73 / 0 0 10 20 GPT 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 10 20 PQL 86 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232749 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1244 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There is still a chance for some isolated showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms this morning along the coastal locations and Gulf waters. However, mostly tranquil conditions can be expected for later today into tonight as surface high pressure over northern and northeastern TX dominates the local weather pattern. High temperatures today will be mainly in the upper 80s and the lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and the lower 70s for the rest of the inland portions. A mid to upper level shortwave and associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms will make its way southward across eastern OK Saturday night into Sunday morning and eastern TX during the afternoon to evening hours. Hi-Res guidance suggest the cluster of showers and storms arriving the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region during the morning hours, but weaken quickly as they progress southward. Then, guidance show another round of showers and thunderstorms developing to our north and northwest, which would move then into Southeast TX later in the afternoon into the early night hours. There is still some uncertainty as to how strong these storms will be and how much of Southeast TX will be affected by them. This second batch of storms does look to be the stronger one out of the two, given that conditions in the afternoon to evening may become favorable for strong to severe storms, capable of producing strong winds and hail. However, as we have seen it happen in the past few days, we will need to see if the morning storms take all the "juice" out of the environment and not allow us to recover as much during the afternoon hours. At this time, I continued with slight chances for showers and storms for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the morning hours and increase PoPs and expand them further south as the afternoon progresses. I also kept slight chances in the evening to night hours in case some of these showers take a little longer to dissipate. That being said, there may be further changes to this forecast (maybe higher PoPs if needed) as models come into a better agreement on the strength and coverage of these storms. I will note here that SPC has placed a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for areas north of a line extending from northern Washington County to eastern Trinity County while the rest of Southeast TX has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday. Main threats are damaging winds and hail, but cannot rule out a brief/isolated tornado. Although some of these storms may carry heavy rainfall at times, we are currently not expecting significant flooding impacts with this activity. However, ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas are possible. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates and remember to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings. Cotto (24) && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There remains not a whole lot to say about the long term at this time beyond...yup, it`s early summer! A quick summary of the Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index reveals a whole lot of white across Southeast Texas, indicating very little potential for extreme events through next week. One small bit of 0.5-0.6 values near the coast emerges later next week, indicating an "extreme" event is possible is later next week for minimum temperatures. Basically from Monday night/Tuesday morning onward, I`ve got low temps at/above 80 degrees beginning to encroach on Galveston and other communities on the immediate coast (Anahuac, High Island, Surfside, etc). These increasing warm nights do not surprise me too overly much. We`ll have persistent onshore flow through this period, keeping a strong Gulf connection to keep dewpoints high at night, especially closer to the coast. High dewpoints will keep the temperature floor high, and given how compressed our temperature range can get in the summer, it doesn`t take a huge boost to the temperature floor to start having to consider the potential for record high min temps. Patches of 0.5+ EFI aren`t the strongest indicator of unusually hot nights ahead, but does signal it to be something to be on the watch for. One other thing we`ll have to be mindful of? A weak cold front will be approaching the region mid to late week next week. But man, this front looks so weak. (This is where you go "How weak is it?") It looks so weak, I doubt it makes it much past the Red River, much less anywhere close to Southeast Texas. But...it and the upper trough supporting it may get near enough to help enhance our typical diurnal showers and storms some. So I roll with some modestly higher PoPs (thinking like 30s or so rather than 15ish percent each day), at least north of the Houston metro for Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions expected this afternoon with light winds, generally northerly early then shifting southeasterly later today near the coast. Isolated patchy fog will be possible overnight into the early morning hours of Sunday, mainly at KLBX, KCXO and KUTS. These sites are most likely to see FLs drop to MVFR to IFR conditions (possibly lower in the hours leading up to sunrise). All CIGs/Fog will clear out not long after sunrise on Sunday. Light southwesterly winds will gradually strengthen and shift south/southeast heading into the afternoon on Sunday. Isolated to scattered storms may start to develop/move in from the north during this period, though chances remain too low for a mention the the present TAF. Best chances for showers/storms over the metro area occur beyond the current TAF period (00z-06z). 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to moderate north to northeast winds are expected in the front`s wake through this morning and early afternoon. Through the afternoon, winds will begin to veer, becoming south to southeast tonight. Onshore winds are expected to increase early next week, resulting in gradually building swell. As those winds gradually build, small craft may need to exercise caution on Tuesday and even a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on the coastal Gulf waters. Daily potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also exist. At the shore, persistent onshore winds next week could lead to strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches as well as minor rises in water levels during the upcoming week. At times of high tide, guidance suggests continued water levels around 2.5-3.0 feet above MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 87 69 93 72 / 0 0 30 30 Houston (IAH) 88 72 93 74 / 10 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 77 88 79 / 20 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232748 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1240 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An upper level shortwave over the Southeast moves off, with a weak cold front south of the northern Gulf coast moving a bit further south tonight through Saturday before stalling. This front will provide the focus for convection developing over the Gulf through Saturday over open Gulf waters before it washes out. A surface ridge organizing over the northern Gulf coast late Sunday through Sunday night will begin to bring moisture back to the Lower Mississippi River and western portions of the Southeast, but not enough for precipitation to return the forecast area. The forecast area will see a cooling off today, with temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures see a small uptick for Sunday, topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. A mild night is expected Saturday night, with good radiational cooling from the dry airmass allowing temperatures to bottom out in the low 60s north of I-10, mid 60s to near 70 south. The small increase in moisture levels late Sunday through Sunday night will bring a small uptick in low temperatures, with 60-65 expected north of I-10, 65 to 72 south to the coast. A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Monday. /16 An upper trof over the East Coast states into the eastern Gulf on Monday moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday, with an upper ridge meanwhile building over the eastern states. Another upper trof over the western CONUS expands to encompass the western and central states, then spreads into the eastern states through Friday, with the upper ridge meanwhile dissipating. Yet another upper trof, this one in the easterlies, advances to mainly over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday, then continues slowly into the eastern Gulf through Friday. Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with the upper ridge building into the region, then slight chance to chance pops return by Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens and a southeasterly surface flow steadily brings improving deep layer moisture into the area. A surface low passing well off to the north brings a trailing cold front to near the forecast area by Friday, and will have chance pops on Thursday trending to chance to likely pops by Friday. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail along with light and variable winds. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to moderate offshore flow will become more variable through the weekend. A surface ridge building west over the northern Gulf Coast beginning early in the week will bring a return of onshore flow to area waters by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 87 67 88 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 10 10 0 10 10 30 Pensacola 69 86 71 87 72 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 10 20 Destin 71 87 73 88 74 89 76 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Evergreen 59 88 63 91 64 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 60 86 63 88 64 91 67 91 / 0 10 10 10 0 10 0 30 Camden 59 84 63 87 64 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Crestview 60 89 64 91 65 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232747 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1232 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate Risk for Heat-Related Impacts today and Sunday A mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into South Texas Saturday and hang around through the end of the weekend. Before this ridge slides into the region, a shortwave is expected to traverse across South Texas from the south tomorrow promoting low chances (20- 25%) for showers and thunderstorms. With increased subsidence and drier air Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected to close out the weekend. Therefore, the are of moderate risk for heat-related impacts will spread out to cover most of the Brush Country on Sunday. Elsewhere, there will be a minor risk of heat-related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week. - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country Tuesday-Saturday next week. Not much too talk about in the long-term period. High pressure over Mexico builds into the region promoting warmer temperatures and increased heat risk. Accompanied by a low-level jet that develops for much of the work week, resulting in breezy to windy conditions with southeasterly wind sustained around 15 knots gusting up to 20- 25 knots Tuesday through the end of the week. A mid-level disturbance moving across the Southern Plains midweek will result in increased rain chances across the region from Wednesday through the end of the work week. There`s a low 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the region particularly across the western Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. A Saharan dust plume moving into the Gulf from the Atlantic may result in hazy conditions for the second half of the week. This could impact visibilities and possibly increase the risk for respiratory issues. Expect temperatures across inland locales in the 90-100 degree range throughout much of the week getting up to around 105 across the Brush country towards the end of the work week. Generally a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts for the week with isolated areas of Extreme risk over portions of the Brush Country. Heat indices approaching and possibly exceeding 110 degrees across western portions of our CWA, especially towards the end of the week that may result in Heat Advisories being needed this upcoming week but with the NBM ensemble mean around 105 degrees will continue to monitor the trend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Fair weather CU continue to spread across South Texas with afternoon heating. Light showers continue to move eastwards across the northeastern Mexican states. This will briefly introduce a low chance (10-30%) of light showers for KLRD and KCOT. This concludes by sunset, becoming partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog is showing up in hi-res guidance for KALI and KVCT from Sunday 09Z-14Z, before returning to VFR in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore flow is expected across the local waters today through Sunday. Low chances (15-20%) for rain are expected today with chances below 10% tonight into Sunday. Flow will be predominately Gentle to Moderate (BF 3-4) early Monday. Increasing to Moderate to at times a fresh breeze (BF 4-5) late Monday, persisting through the end of next week. There`s a 15-20% chance for showers today over the waters and low rain chances (15- 30% chance) are expected mid to late week, next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 92 75 91 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 72 94 72 92 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 77 98 75 100 / 10 10 0 10 Alice 73 96 73 96 / 10 10 0 10 Rockport 77 90 78 90 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 76 100 75 101 / 10 10 0 10 Kingsville 74 93 74 93 / 10 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 78 88 80 88 / 10 10 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232746 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 129 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. A few showers are possible across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Breezy today with westerly winds gusting to 25-30 mph through the afternoon. - Scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon. A few storms may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. ~986mb low pressure is situated over New England late this morning. A vigorous upper-level trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with some shortwave-induced altocumulus over central and eastern portions of the area. Another shortwave will be responsible for initiating additional showers and storms later this afternoon. There is also some high altitude smoke noted on visible satellite, creating a hazy sky. Expect any smoke to gradually move S and E of the area through the day. Earlier winds have diminished some, but should remain breezy to 20-30 mph through the afternoon across the entire CWA. The anomalously strong trough continues to strengthen across the Eastern CONUS today. The area of low pressure also deepens further to the lower 980s mb as it occludes over northern New England this afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front (associated with additional shortwave energy from the parent trough) moves across the area during the afternoon. This will allow for very cool temps aloft for late May, which therefore will allow for very steep lapse rates. Mid- level lapse rates of ~7C (locally ~7.5C) are expected this afternoon. Even though dew points remain in the 50s this afternoon, the cool temps aloft will allow for SBCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg (locally around 1500 J/kg) across much of the area (500-1000 J/kg across the NW portions of the area). A strong gradient in 0-6km shear is expected today with a belt of ~60 kt of 0-6km shear extending from the OH Valley SE into NC. This will allow for 40-60 kt of 0-6km shear across the S/SW half of the area with weaker values of 20-30 kt across NE/N portions of the area. Given the steep lapse rates, high LCLs, and low freezing levels, a favorable setup for at least small hail is expected to develop. Scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon (potentially as early as around noon, but more likely by 2-4 PM), moving SE with time. Given the favorable hail setup, stronger showers/storms are likely to have at least small hail with them. However, if a storm is able to become strong enough, severe hail is possible (potentially larger than quarters) given SHIP values >1. Additionally, the lapse rates only steepen towards the surface which will allow for strong winds aloft to efficiently mix to the surface. As such, SPC has the entire area under a MARGINAL (level 1/5) risk for hail and wind today, but they do at least casually mention some higher wind probabilities could be warranted with the 1630z/1230 PM outlook update. Convection quickly tapers off by this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s N to the upper 70s S under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight cool into the upper 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Aloft, a strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Mon. At the surface, a stationary front S of the local area Sun morning potentially lifts N into S portions of the FA Sun afternoon and evening before dropping back S Sun night. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. Recent model trends have been for the stationary front to linger close enough to S portions of the FA that a few isolated showers/storms may develop across SE VA/NE NC Sun afternoon into Sun evening as another shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave trough. However, confidence remains low that convection will make it as far N as the local area at this time PoPs of 15-30%. Will note that SPC has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sun. While severe weather is not expected over the local area Sun at this time, if the front trends N, this could change. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid-upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low-mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Aloft, an upper level trough slides offshore Tue with a ridge moving into the East Coast from mid to late week. The EURO/EPS has trended towards the GFS/GEFS in showing a more progressive pattern as opposed to a cutoff low lingering near the coast early next week. As such, confidence has increased in a significant warmup beginning Tue and continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs increase from the mid 80s Tue to the upper 80s Wed and around 90F Thu and Fri. Dry weather is expected with this warmup through Thu night. Ensembles show signs of a trough approaching by Fri into the weekend, leading to an unsettled pattern developing. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... SCT-BKN mid-level CU (bases 5-7k ft) has developed this afternoon at the local terminals, with locally BKN skies at SBY. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop this afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY from 19-22z and lowest confidence at RIC. Elsewhere (ORF, PHF, ECG), have medium confidence of showers/storms in the 20-00z timeframe. A TEMPO captures these potential storms at SBY with PROB30 groups elsewhere. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms, along with reduced VSBY. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. SKC continues into the first part of Sunday with generally light W-WSW winds. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few showers in NE NC Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 1040 AM EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 1 PM today and the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound through 4 PM this afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. A vigorous upper trough is pushing across the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. At the surface, 986mb low pressure is centered over New England, with the trailing cold front well offshore. Winds have dropped off quite a bit compared to earlier this morning, with W winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Earlier Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs for the rest of this morning and afternoon. The SCA for the srn coastal waters was also expired as of the 10 AM update with the nrn coastal waters SCA in effect through 4 PM due to lingering winds and seas. A WSW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt persists through this aftn for the nearshore waters, primarily the rivers and Currituck Sound where SCAs have been extended through 4 PM. Seas/waves subside to 3-4ft/2-3ft by this aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected this aftn, and again, some could be strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay, primarily N of New Point Comfort. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>638. && $$ |
| #1232745 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 31.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 125 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight and Sunday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Tonight: Mostly clear skies and much drier air mass will settle over the region behind the frontal boundary. This will lead to the coolest night since early May with lows around 60F over inland areas, but still well above the record lows in the 40s/50s set in 1984 on June 1st. Slightly milder closer to the Atlantic Coast in the mid/upper 60s. Some patchy fog will be possible just before sunrise Sunday morning, mainly near inland waterways, but the drier air mass should prevent any significant dense fog formation. Sunday: Weak trough development over the SE US, but overall a hot and dry day is expected in weak West to Southwest flow under mostly to partly sunny skies as Max Temps push back into the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast as the East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland to about the US 301 corridor by the late afternoon hours. Still expecting the air mass will be too dry for any shower activity along the East Coast sea breeze with rainfall chances around 10% or less. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure conditions will result in predominantly dry weather for Monday and Tuesday, with a higher chance for showers and diurnal storms forming over north central Florida and extending to the coast. Prevailing flow is expected to shift about to become more out of the northeast and east by Tuesday resulting in far reaching and breezy east coast sea breeze winds extending inland past the I-75 corridor. High temperatures for the beginning of next week will be in the lower 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s along the shore and areas affected by the diurnal sea breeze. Overnight low temperatures for this period will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas nearer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure will move off to the east as the week progresses with prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the southeast by the end of the week, bringing in increased moisture levels and more widespread diurnal showers and thunderstorms by Saturday. Temperatures will trend above the seasonal average through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conds with just a few high clouds for the most part through the period. West winds around 10 knots this afternoon become light overnight with East Coast sea breeze pushing through SSI/SGJ at the end of the current TAF period. Despite the dry airmass in place still expect the usual patchy MVFR for at VQQ from 07-11Z, while lower chances exist at GNV before sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Cold frontal boundary has pressed south of the local waters this afternoon. A secondary front will move across the local waters tonight but rainfall is not expected. A front lingers over the region Monday as high pressure builds north of the region. The high builds northeast Tuesday and Wednesday with a coastal trough over the local waters, along with a slight increase in onshore flow and shower and thunderstorm activity. While some increase in onshore/Easterly flow is expected next week, SCA and/or SCEC headlines are not expected at this time. Rip Currents: Low to Marginal Moderate Risk of Rips Sunday into Monday as offshore flow will be punctuated by a daily weak sea breeze development along the Atlantic Coast which will keep surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range. A steadier onshore/Easterly flow is expected to develop by mid next week with surf/breakers into the 2-4 ft range by Wed/Thu time frame for a more solid Moderate to borderline High risk of rip currents. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through into the beginning of next week with the diurnal sea breeze pushing further inland by Tuesday as flow and prevailing winds shift about to become more onshore. Highest chances for daily showers and storms for the beginning of next week will occur over north central Florida and extending eastward to the coastline. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 60 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 86 73 88 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 62 91 68 91 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 65 90 70 89 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 62 92 66 93 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 63 93 67 92 / 0 0 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232743 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A more active weather pattern begins this weekend as mid-level troughing pushes over the region and a weak frontal boundary progresses southward and stalls. The front is currently positioned just north of Lake Okeechobee and scattered showers and storms are gradually progressing southward and are beginning to impact the Lake Okeechobee region and interior South Florida. The latest HREF model guidance is emphasizing that showers and thunderstorms will have the greatest impact to the north of Alligator Alley (60-75%) on Saturday. The probability for substantial instability to support strong to severe thunderstorms is more favorable to the north of Alligator Alley and declines as activity moves further south across the region, but the northern portions of the CWA remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center. The line of shower and storm activity is expected to slowly progress southward ahead of the front and weaken through the day becoming more isolated in coverage by the late afternoon and evening. Despite the anticipated weakening trend, the potential for one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out as the front coincides with peak diurnal heating. Any strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon will be accompanied with the potential for gusty winds, brief downpours, and frequent lightning. A lull in shower and storm activity is expected overnight, although CAMs depict a similarly active setup for Sunday as the front remains draped just north of the area. A line of showers and storms will be approaching from the north by the mid to late morning hours and progress southward across the area through the day. Similarly to today, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with heavy downpours, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts all a possibility in the strongest activity. High temperatures today and Sunday will generally rise into the upper 80s along and north of Alligator Alley, and into the lower 90s south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The unsettled pattern continues into the first half of the new work- week. Mid-level longwave troughing will remain in place. However, a secondary vort max will come down and round the base of the trough on Monday into Monday night which may aid in trough amplification over the region. This secondary vort max plays a big role in the forecast and while the degree of uncertainty is still rather high, trends in the guidance over the past 12 to 24 hours have show signals of shifting to a stronger vort max pushing further south closer to the region. This will add an extra source of lift to the area when combined with the stalled out frontal boundary draped across the region. PWAT values will slowly rise between 1.7-2" by Monday afternoon which will provide additional moisture for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, this will continue to keep the threat for localized urban flooding across the east coast metro areas. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms with the strong shortwave passing through. These storms may have the threat for strong gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours on Monday afternoon and evening. Exact details and timing will continue to become clearer over the next day but shower and storm activity will potentially favor the eastern portion of South Florida during the afternoon and evening, as surface flow remains south to southwesterly. Heading towards the middle of the week, unsettled conditions continue as moisture lingers across the region. Periods of showers and storms will be possible each day through the remainder of the week with probabilities maximized during the afternoon. This period takes on additional uncertainty as amplifying mid level troughing tries to wrap up into a mid level low off of the Southeast coastline on Wednesday. The latest guidance suite remains in disagreement with the evolution of this low in regard to location and how strong it actually becomes. ECMWF solutions shows a stronger mid level low developing further to the north, while GFS solutions show a weaker mid level low developing further to the south off of the Florida Coastline.At the same time, a plume of Saharan Dust may push into South Florida from the Carribean which could potentially bring some drier air into the region which could affect convection coverage. Overall, higher than usual uncertainty through the long term, although it is leaning towards more unsettled conditions and afternoon/evening showers and storms. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps likely chances of showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Ongoing showers and storms around east coast sites will continue over the remainder of the afternoon. Periods of MVFR/IFR may be possible and short fuse amendments may be necessary. Light and variable flow overnight will become westerly again late morning. Additional showers and storms likely during the late morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Gentle to moderate winds will gradually become more westerly over the weekend as a frontal boundary moves over the region and stalls out. Chances for showers and storms over local waters remains elevated through the weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across the Florida peninsula. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Any thunderstorm that develops may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 91 78 88 / 40 60 60 80 West Kendall 75 92 75 89 / 40 60 60 80 Opa-Locka 78 93 77 89 / 40 60 50 80 Homestead 77 91 76 88 / 40 50 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 77 90 77 87 / 50 70 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 90 77 87 / 50 70 50 80 Pembroke Pines 78 94 78 91 / 40 70 50 80 West Palm Beach 75 88 74 87 / 60 80 40 80 Boca Raton 75 91 75 89 / 50 80 50 80 Naples 75 87 76 88 / 70 60 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232741 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The upper trough over the Eastern CONUS has swept in a layer of smoke from Canadian wildfires, which can be seen on satellite imagery. This could have a very slight effect in inhibiting temperatures today. Therefore, we lowered max temperatures by 1 degree across the forecast area. No other updates have been made to the forecast. Today: Aloft, longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep upper low across New England and eastern Canada. At the surface, the flow pattern will remain cyclonic around the deepening surface low moving across New England and the presence of a surface trough later in the day. Overall, the main story of the day will be a notably drier airmass and temperatures forecast to actually be slightly below normal for late May. Low-level westerly flow should allow us to out perform low-level thickness progs and the forecast advertises low to mid 80s across the area. Westerly winds will be a bit breezy, with frequent gusts up to around 20 mph from midday onward. Tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue with drier and cooler air in place. The forecast remains dry and lows are expected to drop into the low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over the East Coast in the morning, with an embedded Low north of New England. These features should hover in place through the day. Overnight, the Low lifts further north and weakens, while a weak shortwave rounds the base of the trough, approaching our area from the west late. At the surface, weak High pressure may be near the FL Panhandle in the morning and then in the vicinity of our area in the evening. Additionally, a dissipating cold front may move through our area late at night. PWATs ~1" in the morning should rise to ~1.25" as time progresses. These values are below normal. Hence, the deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But given the PWATs and model soundings, it might be hard to get any rainfall, so we kept the forecast dry. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Monday: A mid-level trough will stretch from New England down into the Southeast in the morning. A shortwave will round the base of this trough in the morning and afternoon, moving over our area. The trough axis should shift offshore in the evening and overnight, followed by ridging building in from the west. A surface cold front should be located just to our east and southeast in the morning, quickly moving away. Meanwhile, High pressure will be near the Middle Appalachians. The High will gradually move towards the Mid-Atlantic region as time progresses. PWATs will remain ~1.25, which is still below normal. The deterministic models start out dry, but then point towards isolated showers along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Given all of the models generally have this, we went with slight chance POPs. But the low PWATs and model soundings will make it hard for widespread convection to develop. Overnight will be dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows will be around 60 degrees far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of a strong ridge building over the East Coast. At the surface, High pressure over the Mid-Alantic region in the morning will shift into the Atlantic late in the day. Models hint that PWATs initially ~1.25" may drop through the day. The deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But the NBM keeps our area dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong mid-level ridging will prevail build over the Southeast U.S. through Thursday, then start moving offshore on Friday. High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail, ushering moisture into our area. This pattern will yield diurnal convection. Temperatures will rise to above normal by Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through 18Z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Northwest winds will peak this morning then diminish a bit into the afternoon as they turn more west or west-southwest. Speeds should top out in the 15-20 knot range. Overnight, winds are expected to be westerly and no higher than 15 knots. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period, with up to 4 feet at times in the outer waters. Extended Marine: Outside of potential diurnal convection, no Small Craft Advisories are expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232740 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 PM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1152 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring a round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through this morning. A period of drier weather is expected late morning into the afternoon before another round of scattered showers arrives later today into tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible too. Drier weather follows Sunday into much of next week, except Thursday and/or Friday, with the risk for scattered showers & thunderstorms. A warming trend is likely too, with highs in the 80s mid to late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Gusty to Strong Southwest Wind Gusts for Southeast New England, peaking between 2-7 PM. Wind Advisory issued until 10 PM for gusts 45-50 mph for southeast RI, southeast MA and Cape Cod/Islands. * Widely Scattered T-storms mainly in interior Southern New England to I-95 between 2-7 PM. Made a few adjustments to the forecast. Overcast skies early have started to scatter out across southeast New England, including the Cape and Islands. This has led to some modest heating/mixing and is leading to southwesterly gusts in the 35 mph range, even as far north as Norwood and Boston. However gusts Further southwest in the cloudy air across Long Island and NYC/northern NJ, gusts of 35-40 kt have been pretty common. NAM/RAP/HRRR profiles show a southwesterly low level jet moving across the south coast during the afternoon to early evening, with the NAM showing 975 mb winds 45-50 kt! As long as we can stay with partial sun, we should be able to mix a good portion of this jetcore leading to gusts peaking in the 45-50 mph range. Given that some may have made it to the beaches with this clearing, we opted for a wind advisory for these southeast coastal areas until 10 PM. Also monitoring the potential for re-developing scattered showers/t-storms mainly in interior Southern New England during the 2-7 PM timeframe. With cloud cover trending toward more of scattered to broken cumulus look, modest heating has allowed for temps to warm into the mid 60s. Additional heating should allow for a narrow corridor of weak instability (CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg) from about Orange to Hartford eastward to Lawrence and southward into the Providence area, as sfc low near the Litchfield Hills pulls NE into north-central MA. Already are a few deepening cores currently per day-cloud-phase satellite imagery coming off the Berkshires and into NW Hartford County, with expectations that this activity and additional scattered t-storms could develop northeastward following recent NAM-3km/HRRR trends. Severe weather not expected but lightning and brief gusts to 40 mph possible in stronger cells. Previous discussion... We`re in the thick of the much advertised period of widespread rain showers with some elevated thunderstorms associated with an anomolous mid level trough which is currently digging into New England. Mesoscale analysis and WV satellite imagery show the center of the vertically stacked low directly over the Mid Atlantic where the heaviest rainfall currently is falling. As this low lifts directly over SNE the heaviest and steadiest bands of precipitation will fall to the NW of the low, over western MA and CT. This is where the most rainfall is expected by the time all is said and done Saturday evening. We continue to expect generally 1 to 2 inches of rain, but with locally higher amounts as high resolution guidance indicates the potential for as much as 3 to 4 inches; at this time those highest amounts are more likely just to the west of our region. Regardless, some localized street flooding is possible, especially under any training cells or convection. Instability is marginal (up to 500-850 mb) and elevated so not expecting any severe weather, but rather garden variety thunderstorms embedded in showers, especially between 8 am and 2 pm. A dry slot eventually moves over eastern MA/RI bringing an end to widespread rainfall by mid to late morning. Rain likely continues most of the day further west. Then, some additional moisture is pulled in on the back side in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave rounds the base of the trough. This may kick off another round of less widespread showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two, generally along and northwest of the I-95 corridor. Instability is more limited with this round (dependent on how many breaks of sun we get) and the shear environment is unfavorable, so severe weather is not expected. Showers come to an end by 10 pm with drier westerly flow bringing a good amount of clearing. Cold advection in the low/mid levels will support lows in the upper 40s (warmer along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry Sunday, but cooler than normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Dry on Sunday under westerly flow under slowly rising heights. The upper trough remains overhead with a cold pool aloft and this together with lingering low/mid level moisture will lead to a good amount of diurnal cloud cover. Given the colder air aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry week ahead, a cold front late in the week brings the next chance for appreciable rainfall. * Warming trend this week, Wednesday and Thursday will be summery with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Fairly quiet weather on Monday, will have a mixture of clouds as the region is under cyclonic flow. 850mb temperatures begin to increase, from +3C Sunday to +7C Monday, resulting in warmer temperatures for Monday afternoon. Highs are in the upper 60s near the coast to the lower 70s inland. Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave pivots about the departing system, do not expect any precipitation as PWATs fall to less than 1/2". Mid-level trough moves off shore Tuesday with rising heights as the ridge shifts into New England. Dry and warming conditions Tuesday to Thursday, the one potential issue would be if the ridge pinches off the departing trough and results in weaker cut-off low east of the region. Only a few members show this, thus think the warm and dry conditions will prevail. 850mb temperatures Tuesday increase towards +8C and +10C, but really increase for Wednesday and Thursday as those temperatures are +15C to +18C. Should have highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast, near the coast those temperatures are in the lower 70s. Wednesday and Thursday it will be summer like with highs well into the 80s. Looking for relief the south coast will likely be a bit cooler in the upper 70s due to the SSW flow. And with this flow, will have increasing due points into the low 60s, so will feel muggy as well. As for nighttime relief, doesn`t appear to be much with lows Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday night in the low to middle 60s. Our next chance for rain would come late in the week, late Thursday or perhaps Friday as a cold front moves in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 15z TAF Update: Today: Moderate confidence. MVFR/VFR ceilings, lowest categories mainly along/west of ORH. Possible SCT -TSRA 17-22z HFD/BDL to ORH to BED. SW gusts strongest over SE MA/RI/Cape and Islands. Gusts at ACK could reach into the 45 kt range this afternoon, with gusts 35-40 kt PVD and Cape airports. Elsewhere, SW winds around 10-15 kt with gusts 25 kt before shifting to W late in the day. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts in the afternoon, locally higher to 30 kts over the Cape and Islands. BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in vsby potential and timing. BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in exact timing and specific details. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... Winds becoming SW 12-18z today followed by gusts to 25-35 kt developing, higher to 40 kts possible over southern waters. Seas building to 8-10 ft over southern waters as well. SCA in effect for all waters. Showers and sct t-storms moving over the waters this morning with poor vsbys in fog, with some improvement developing during the afternoon. Saturday night...High Confidence. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Seas 6-10 ft. Sunday...High Confidence. W winds 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts. Seas 4-7 ft. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for RIZ005-007-008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 231-251. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. && $$ |
| #1232739 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 PM 31.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1151 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A more active weather pattern begins this weekend as mid-level troughing pushes over the region and a weak frontal boundary progresses southward and stalls. The front is currently positioned just north of Lake Okeechobee and scattered showers and storms are gradually progressing southward and are beginning to impact the Lake Okeechobee region and interior South Florida. The latest HREF model guidance is emphasizing that showers and thunderstorms will have the greatest impact to the north of Alligator Alley (60-75%) on Saturday. The probability for substantial instability to support strong to severe thunderstorms is more favorable to the north of Alligator Alley and declines as activity moves further south across the region, but the northern portions of the CWA remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center. The line of shower and storm activity is expected to slowly progress southward ahead of the front and weaken through the day becoming more isolated in coverage by the late afternoon and evening. Despite the anticipated weakening trend, the potential for one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out as the front coincides with peak diurnal heating. Any strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon will be accompanied with the potential for gusty winds, brief downpours, and frequent lightning. A lull in shower and storm activity is expected overnight, although CAMs depict a similarly active setup for Sunday as the front remains draped just north of the area. A line of showers and storms will be approaching from the north by the mid to late morning hours and progress southward across the area through the day. Similarly to today, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with heavy downpours, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts all a possibility in the strongest activity. High temperatures today and Sunday will generally rise into the upper 80s along and north of Alligator Alley, and into the lower 90s south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The unsettled pattern continues into the first half of the new work- week. Mid-level longwave troughing will remain in place. However, a secondary vort max will come down and round the base of the trough on Monday into Monday night which may aid in trough amplification over the region. This secondary vort max plays a big role in the forecast and while the degree of uncertainty is still rather high, trends in the guidance over the past 12 to 24 hours have show signals of shifting to a stronger vort max pushing further south closer to the region. This will add an extra source of lift to the area when combined with the stalled out frontal boundary draped across the region. PWAT values will slowly rise between 1.7-2" by Monday afternoon which will provide additional moisture for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, this will continue to keep the threat for localized urban flooding across the east coast metro areas. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms with the strong shortwave passing through. These storms may have the threat for strong gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours on Monday afternoon and evening. Exact details and timing will continue to become clearer over the next day but shower and storm activity will potentially favor the eastern portion of South Florida during the afternoon and evening, as surface flow remains south to southwesterly. Heading towards the middle of the week, unsettled conditions continue as moisture lingers across the region. Periods of showers and storms will be possible each day through the remainder of the week with probabilities maximized during the afternoon. This period takes on additional uncertainty as amplifying mid level troughing tries to wrap up into a mid level low off of the Southeast coastline on Wednesday. The latest guidance suite remains in disagreement with the evolution of this low in regard to location and how strong it actually becomes. ECMWF solutions shows a stronger mid level low developing further to the north, while GFS solutions show a weaker mid level low developing further to the south off of the Florida Coastline.At the same time, a plume of Saharan Dust may push into South Florida from the Carribean which could potentially bring some drier air into the region which could affect convection coverage. Overall, higher than usual uncertainty through the long term, although it is leaning towards more unsettled conditions and afternoon/evening showers and storms. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps likely chances of showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR could be likely at all sites later today as a cold front approaches. Best timing for impacts look to be between 18-22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail before the afternoon with generally westerly winds up to 10-12 kts. Convection will taper off around sunset and winds will relax overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Gentle to moderate winds will gradually become more westerly over the weekend as a frontal boundary moves over the region and stalls out. Chances for showers and storms over local waters remains elevated through the weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across the Florida peninsula. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Any thunderstorm that develops may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 78 91 78 / 60 40 60 60 West Kendall 94 75 92 75 / 50 40 60 60 Opa-Locka 94 78 93 77 / 60 40 60 50 Homestead 93 77 91 76 / 40 40 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 Pembroke Pines 96 78 94 78 / 70 40 70 50 West Palm Beach 90 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40 Boca Raton 93 75 91 75 / 70 50 80 50 Naples 88 75 87 76 / 60 70 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232738 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1139 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 We continue to monitor a cold front sliding down the Florida peninsula this morning. The leading edge is located approximately 130 northwest of Key West, and 110 miles northwest of Key Largo. Looking outside of our window, we can see some of the high cirrus associated with this front in the distance. Otherwise, GOES-19 visible imagery shows mostly sunny skies across much of the island chain. Of note, current satellite imagery also shows an extensive stream or wildfire from Canada extending through the Plains, the Midwest, and reaching as far south as the Florida- Georgia line. 11 AM EDT observations showed temperatures in the mid 80s, so we suggest that everyone consider stepping outside and enjoying the sunshine for a little bit today as the likelihood of unsettled weather is going to soar over the next few days. Due to the close proximity of the cold front, the 12Z balloon from this morning doesn`t offer a vertical profile that is as representative of the current environment. Regardless, it showed a shallow layer of moisture near the surface, relatively drier air in the mid levels, and then and impressively moist upper level. Calculated PWAT was 1.36 inches, but the CIMSS MIMIC Total PWAT shows only a sliver of similar values in the area. Outside of this sliver, PWAT values seem to be closer to 1.5 to 1.6 inches. Wind direction was southwesterly through much of the sounding, so the initial thinking was that we would have to keep our eyes open for reverse cloudline development, but winds in the lower levels have already shifted westerly, so any cloudline is starting to look less likely. No updates or changes are needed to the current forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a strengthening low pressure system continues moving northeastward into New England today. Its associated cold front will continue pressing southeastward stalling somewhere over the Central to South Florida Peninsula for most of the weekend. This will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes across our waters. Also, a generally wetter regime will result with an increase in coverage area of showers and thunderstorms through the early part of next week. Breezes will shift back to the east to southeast towards the middle of next week as a high pressure system moves across the Eastern U.S. and moves into the western North Atlantic by mid week. Moisture will remain keeping the unsettled pattern in place. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with surface winds between 5 and 10 knots oscillating between southwest to northwest today. A cold front over the Florida peninsula will slow down its progression to our area, and confidence is still low as to how much, if any, convection will reach either terminal. Will make amendments as appropriate later. && .CLIMATE... In 2018, Key West experienced its wettest May ever with 14.17" of rain recorded. Precipitation records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 82 87 79 / 20 20 30 60 Marathon 88 81 88 79 / 20 20 40 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232736 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1050 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. A few showers are possible across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Breezy today with westerly winds gusting to 25-30 mph through the afternoon. - Scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon. A few storms may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. ~986mb low pressure is situated over New England late this morning. A vigorous upper-level trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with some shortwave-induced altocumulus over central and eastern portions of the area. Another shortwave will be responsible for initiating additional showers and storms later this afternoon. There is also some high altitude smoke noted on visible satellite, creating a hazy sky. Expect any smoke to gradually move S and E of the area through the day. Earlier winds have diminished some, but should remain breezy to 20-30 mph through the afternoon across the entire CWA. The anomalously strong trough continues to strengthen across the Eastern CONUS today. The area of low pressure also deepens further to the lower 980s mb as it occludes over northern New England this afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front (associated with additional shortwave energy from the parent trough) moves across the area during the afternoon. This will allow for very cool temps aloft for late May, which therefore will allow for very steep lapse rates. Mid- level lapse rates of ~7C (locally ~7.5C) are expected this afternoon. Even though dew points remain in the 50s this afternoon, the cool temps aloft will allow for SBCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg (locally around 1500 J/kg) across much of the area (500-1000 J/kg across the NW portions of the area). A strong gradient in 0-6km shear is expected today with a belt of ~60 kt of 0-6km shear extending from the OH Valley SE into NC. This will allow for 40-60 kt of 0-6km shear across the S/SW half of the area with weaker values of 20-30 kt across NE/N portions of the area. Given the steep lapse rates, high LCLs, and low freezing levels, a favorable setup for at least small hail is expected to develop. Scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon (potentially as early as around noon, but more likely by 2-4 PM), moving SE with time. Given the favorable hail setup, stronger showers/storms are likely to have at least small hail with them. However, if a storm is able to become strong enough, severe hail is possible (potentially larger than quarters) given SHIP values >1. Additionally, the lapse rates only steepen towards the surface which will allow for strong winds aloft to efficiently mix to the surface. As such, SPC has the entire area under a MARGINAL (level 1/5) risk for hail and wind today, but they do at least casually mention some higher wind probabilities could be warranted with the 1630z/1230 PM outlook update. Convection quickly tapers off by this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s N to the upper 70s S under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight cool into the upper 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Aloft, a strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Mon. At the surface, a stationary front S of the local area Sun morning potentially lifts N into S portions of the FA Sun afternoon and evening before dropping back S Sun night. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. Recent model trends have been for the stationary front to linger close enough to S portions of the FA that a few isolated showers/storms may develop across SE VA/NE NC Sun afternoon into Sun evening as another shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave trough. However, confidence remains low that convection will make it as far N as the local area at this time PoPs of 15-30%. Will note that SPC has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sun. While severe weather is not expected over the local area Sun at this time, if the front trends N, this could change. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid-upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low-mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Aloft, an upper level trough slides offshore Tue with a ridge moving into the East Coast from mid to late week. The EURO/EPS has trended towards the GFS/GEFS in showing a more progressive pattern as opposed to a cutoff low lingering near the coast early next week. As such, confidence has increased in a significant warmup beginning Tue and continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs increase from the mid 80s Tue to the upper 80s Wed and around 90F Thu and Fri. Dry weather is expected with this warmup through Thu night. Ensembles show signs of a trough approaching by Fri into the weekend, leading to an unsettled pattern developing. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... Clouds increase in coverage from W to E this morning with SCT CU (BKN CU at SBY) developing by late morning and continuing into through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop this afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY. As such, have added a TEMPO at SBY. Otherwise, confidence in exact timing and coverage remains too low at the other terminals to go with prevailing TSRA in the TAFs. Instead have opted for VCTS and PROB30 for now. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few coastal showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 1040 AM EDT Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 1 PM today and the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound through 4 PM this afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. A vigorous upper trough is pushing across the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. At the surface, 986mb low pressure is centered over New England, with the trailing cold front well offshore. Winds have dropped off quite a bit compared to earlier this morning, with W winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Earlier Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs for the rest of this morning and afternoon. The SCA for the srn coastal waters was also expired as of the 10 AM update with the nrn coastal waters SCA in effect through 4 PM due to lingering winds and seas. A WSW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt persists through this aftn for the nearshore waters, primarily the rivers and Currituck Sound where SCAs have been extended through 4 PM. Seas/waves subside to 3-4ft/2-3ft by this aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected this aftn, and again, some could be strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay, primarily N of New Point Comfort. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1232735 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1048 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 - Broken band of showers and lightning storms (60-70% coverage) will push across the I-4 corridor early this morning, Brevard and Osceola thru mid-morning, and Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late morning-early afternoon, all ahead of a late season "cool" front. Today carries a Marginal Risk (beginning north and ending south) of marginally severe wind gusts (60+ mph), small hail, and brief urban flooding from stronger storms. - The front stalls over south Florida by Sunday, limiting rain and storm chances mainly to the Treasure Coast and southern Space Coast to close out the weekend. - Seasonably warm to hot conditions persist into next week, with a brief drop in humidity across the I-4 corridor late this weekend as drier air filters in briefly behind the front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Surface analysis shows the weak cold front across central Florida, spanning from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee to Bradenton. Out ahead of this front is a line of showers and embedded lightning storms, with debris rain behind the front mainly from southern Lake to northern Brevard southward to where the front is located. As of 10 AM the temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with generally westerly winds around 10 mph. Cloudy conditions are ongoing across the Florida peninsula, with a broad area of low and high level clouds streaming overhead. This weak cold front will continue to shift southward, eventually becoming quasi- stalled near Lake Okeechobee later this afternoon. Medium to high (30-80 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms through the rest of the morning, with convection slowly decreasing in coverage and intensity as the line moves southward through that time. Rain and storm chances increase once again into the afternoon, with a medium to high (30-70 percent) chance of rain and storms this afternoon, mainly from Orlando to Titusville southward. The greatest potential for storms this afternoon will be across Okeechobee and the Treasure coast. Main storm hazards will be wind gusts 40-55mph, frequent lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Forecast remains on track with only some minor adjustments to the rain and storm chances as well as afternoon high temperatures to account for updates in the models as well as current conditions. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Current-tonight...Weak "cool" frontal boundary dropping southward across north FL early this morning. Out ahead of this feature, a broken band of showers and embedded lightning storms is moving east/southeast across north-central FL. The convection will continue to press southward arriving across the I-4 corridor ahead of sunrise, into Osceola/Brevard counties ahead of/thru mid- morning, finally Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late morning/early afternoon. Mid-level energy will aid this system as it passes south. Most probable impacts include lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-55 mph locally - few gusts to around 60 mph in play, torrential downpours, and perhaps some small hail. The strong to marginally severe storm threat will end, from north to south, as the storms through. Any one location may experience 1-2 hrs (max) of storm activity, though lighter debris rain could last a bit longer. With mainly cloud conditions, skies will gradually improve thru late afternoon/early evening (north-south). Clouds/precip will limit high temps, though it will remain humid. Max temps forecast in the M80s with a few U80s sprinkled in. Outside of showers and storms, expect mainly SW/W/WNW winds 8-15 mph (highest along the Space/Treasure coasts). The front does not make a clean passage southward and becomes quasi-stationary near Lake Okee. With ample moisture south of Orlando, energy aloft and proximity to front - expect some renewed convection tonight (esp late) generally south Brevard-Osceola southward. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible late tonight into early Sun morning. Conditions humid, again, tonight with lows well into the 60s to L70s. SW/W winds light this evening and overnight. Sun-Sun Night...The pattern remains unsettled with the front aligned east-west across the Lake Okee region early in the period. We continue with some "troughiness" aloft and deep moisture, with PWATs around 2 inches south-central FL. While we do advertise PoPs (20-30pct) across the I-4 corridor, greatest precip chances extend southward (60-80pct) toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. The moisture/precip gradient will remain rather tight. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible here - esp early. Main storm impacts continue to be gusty winds, lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and small to coin-size hail. The pressure gradient remains rather weak so we will see some variation in wind component, but generally SSW/SW outside of convection. Winds could back more S/SE toward the coast. Max temps return to U80s to potentially a few L90s. Lows continue near seasonal with conditions muggy. Mon-Mon Night...A vigorous mid-level trough is forecast to pass across the FL peninsula on Mon. Temps at 500mb will average -9C to - 11C and moisture return northward could be key to another active day for esp afternoon-evening lightning storms. For now have 30-50pct across the I-4 corridor and 50-80pct south thru Martin County - where moisture is deepest. Sea/lake breeze, convective boundary interactions will all play a role as well. WRLY steering flow still favors late day convection across the eastern peninsula. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible esp our southern coverage warning area. Activity will wind down and push off the coast during the evening. Even with considerable cloudiness forecast, afternoon temps will recover into the U80s and perhaps a few L90s if enough sunshine can occur. Overnight lows remain consistent. Tue-Fri...As mid/upper level troughing pushes off/away from the Eastern Seaboard, shortwave ridging builds across the Gulf Coast States, southeast U.S., and north FL. At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid Atlc States builds into the western Atlc with associated ridge axis gradually building back across north FL. Deepening moisture gradually builds back into the area. Mainly SCT afternoon/evening convection forecast each day. Storm steering becomes light and somewhat variable into mid-week. E/SE winds will be common during the day with speeds 5-10 mph and higher along the coast, with the ECSB developing and pushing inland. Seasonably warm temperatures prevail through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Today-Wed...A weak late-season "cool" front slides southward and becomes quasi-stationary today across the southern waters. This boundary will be preceded by a broken band of showers/embedded lightning storms that will move into the Volusia waters ahead of sunrise, Brevard waters thru mid-morning, and Treasure Coast waters late morning-early afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Primary impacts will be cloud-to- water lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong wind gusts, torrential downpours, and small hail. The front is forecast to gradually dissipate early next week as high pressure builds over the Southeast U.S. SW/W winds slacken later this afternoon into Sun, slowly turning from W to S at around 10 kts. Early next week winds become onshore (E/SE). Initial seas 2-4 ft this morning into early afternoon subside to 1-2 ft Sun night thru early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 MCO IMPACTS: - Band of lightning storms expected around Greater Orlando through around 13Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR within the storms. - 20-30% chance of wind gusts 35+ KT through around 13Z. Ongoing bands of storms moving across our Greater Orlando terminals this morning will slowly push southeastward, reaching the Treasure Coast terminals late morning/midday. Primary hazards will be sudden gusts and frequent lightning. There is a low (20-30%) chance for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT at any given terminal with this activity. Quieter conds this afternoon with VFR prevailing once storms pass. Winds predominantly WSW 5-12 KT through the period. Very low chance for convective redevelopment this afternoon/evening (20-30%). Additional showers/storms redeveloping esp for Treasure Coast terminals overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Post-frontal (drier) conditions on Sun will drive min aftn RH values to 35-40pct north/west of I-4. Otherwise, scattered (occasionally numerous) coverage of lightning storms remain in the forecast into early next week. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. For today, an early start as a pre-frontal band of showers/embedded storms drop south to the I-4 corridor thru sunrise, slowly pushing south thru the remainder of the morning and early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 67 88 69 / 40 0 10 20 MCO 84 71 88 72 / 80 10 30 30 MLB 84 71 87 72 / 70 30 40 40 VRB 85 70 87 70 / 70 40 60 50 LEE 85 69 89 71 / 50 0 10 20 SFB 86 69 90 71 / 70 10 20 20 ORL 85 71 90 72 / 80 10 30 30 FPR 85 69 87 70 / 80 50 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232734 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1040 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air and near to below-normal temperatures are expected over the weekend, with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible this evening, mainly across northern and western areas. A cold front will bring another chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm mainly from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .UPDATE... Forecast on track for sunny and breezy day with gust SW winds and near seasonable temps...close to 85 for highs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has pushed offshore this morning although the 5h trough axis will be slower to shift offshore. In fact the 5h trough axis becomes hard to find as the base of the trough flattens and a couple shortwaves move through the flow aloft. Surface high to west weakly builds in today, with more westerly flow vs the more typical northwest flow following a cold front. The northwest flow will arrive with a secondary cold front that arrives very late tonight. Today`s post front airmass will be dry and breezy, but not really cooler. In fact highs will likely end up the same or possibly a degree or so warmer than Fri due to the much drier air and more abundant sunshine. Afternoon humidity is likely to dip under 40% along with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph as strong winds at the top of the mixed layer surface once some heating can get mixing going. The strongest shortwave moves across the area mid to late morning, setting up subsidence for much of the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a nice subsidence inversion in place for much of the afternoon as well as a deep layer of dry air aloft. As the post wave subsidence wanes, there will be a slight increase in PVA ahead of a much weaker shortwave expected late afternoon/evening. Guidance is split on potential with this wave. A lot of the reliable global models keep the area dry while the CAMs support some convection across the northern edges of the forecast area. The environment seems quite unfavorable for the development of anything more than a short-lived, low topped shower. It could be a case of the CAMs overdoing convection (as they has been the case recently) thus only carrying a slight chance pop for a few hours late in the day, but will not be shocked if nothing develops. Lows below normal tonight with the drier air mass and late surge of cooler air following a second cold front. Boundary layer winds will help keep temperatures warmer than what 850 temps around 10C would suggest. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday, a weak cold front/surface trough initially sent down by the aforementioned shortwave during the preceding night will stall, resulting in westerly low-level flow across the area. This boundary may drift back northward during the morning as its parent shortwave pivots away, but another shortwave will pivot down towards the area on Sunday, pushing the front offshore by early Monday morning. Enhanced low-level moisture (primarily around and below 700mb) over the Mid-South on the southwestern periphery of the broader eastern US trough is expected to translate east-southeastward across the southern Appalachians and combine with forcing provided by the trough and the surface cold front to yield scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the boundary. These should initiate upstream over the mountains and eventually reach the forecast area from late on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and relatively cool mid-level temperatures within the trough should yield at least weak instability with modest effective shear around 25-30 kts. SPC currently highlights northern and western portions of the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday, with a storm or two capable of producing severe wind gusts around 60mph and hail up to quarter size possible late in the afternoon as activity reaches the area before nocturnal cooling largely eliminates the already low severe threat. Otherwise, fast-moving showers should be the main story over Sunday evening and overnight, with winds turning northerly behind the front early Monday morning. Precip totals should generally average a tenth inch or less, but a couple stripes of higher amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range are possible where the heaviest rain occurs. As the trough axis swings through Monday afternoon, cold mid-level temps combined with surface heating may be enough to yield isolated pop-up showers, mainly along the sea breeze. Temperatures will hold near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid-upper troughing shifts eastward and is replaced by ridging during the first half of the week. This will result in increasing temperatures, especially after high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday. A curious feature that has recently shown up in the guidance is a shortwave trough diving out of the Plains and setting up shop around the Florida Peninsula early in the week. The interplay between this wave and ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will determine how soon unsettled weather returns to the forecast area, especially as another broad trough is expected to cross the CONUS and reach the East late in the week, with an attendant cold front bringing rain chances back into the picture by Friday. Until any unsettled weather returns, however, temperatures are expected to warm above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s during the latter half of the week while lows gradually rise through the 60s with each passing night as dew points creep up in return flow around the offshore high. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through 12Z Sunday. Gusty west- northwest winds will develop around 14Z and continue through the day as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Winds drop under 10 kt in the evening with development of northwest to north winds just before 12Z following the passage of a cold front. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Offshore flow in the wake of a cold front will continue into this afternoon before winds start backing to southwest ahead of another front. The second front arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sun with northwest to north winds developing by the end of the period. Short duration of enhanced southwest flow this afternoon/evening may build seas to 3-5 ft, but otherwise seas will be 2-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southwest wind wave and a southeast swell. Sunday through Wednesday... The flow will become variable on Sunday as a surface trough lifts back northward during the day, with southerly flow around 10 kts during the afternoon ahead of another cold front. This front will push through during the night with northerly winds arriving in its wake early on Monday. Surface high pressure west of the area will shift closer to the coast and eventually move offshore on Wednesday. Expect winds to gradually veer to easterly, then southeasterly as this draws closer, although speeds should remain around 10 kts or less through Wednesday. Seas largely hold in the 1-2 ft range in light of the generally weak flow regime. Southeasterly swells of 1-2 ft at 8-9 sec over the weekend will be replaced by 1-2 ft northeasterly to easterly swells with a period of 6 sec early in the week. South- southwesterly wind waves over the weekend will become less prominent during the week as the northeasterly swell takes over. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232732 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 31.May.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1007 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The current forecast remains on track, no changes are planned at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The cold front will be completing its passage through the CWA coastal regions this morning. Lower dewpoints will be noticeable behind the front, leading to more comfortable relative humidity values through the day. PoPs over land will be nil this afternoon with clear skies. Temperatures this afternoon will still be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s but with a light northwest breeze around 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue on Sunday in the wake of Friday`s cold front with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming and moistening trend will get underway and lead to a steady creep of temperatures rising a few degrees each day into midweek. A shortwave dropping southeastward out of the MS River Valley on Sunday could lead to a few showers and storms to the north and west, but overall moisture for our area should be too low to support convection. Warming and moistening is expected over the area through midweek, although mid-level ridging should keep PoPs low to none until it begins to break down later in the week. As the ridge breaks down, an inverted trough approaching from the southeast will help daily showers and thunderstorms to blossom over the area once again. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds will prevail for the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 West winds will continue to shift north/northwest this morning in the wake of a cold front, approaching exercise caution levels. Winds will diminish through the weekend into next week as high pressure builds over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Dry weather returns today following the cold frontal passage. Behind the front, noticeably lower dew points will cause relative humidity values to plummet to the low 30s, however will remain above critical levels. High mixing heights with light to modest transport winds will lead to high dispersions each afternoon (most widespread on Saturday), but otherwise no other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Although recent rainfall has caused a couple of locations to rise into action stage, dry conditions are expected for the next several days and no flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 84 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 63 90 66 / 10 0 0 10 Apalachicola 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232730 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1007 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The upper trough has brought in a thin layer of smoke from northern wildfires, which can be seen on satellite imagery. This could have a very slight effect in inhibiting temperatures today. We will monitor through the early afternoon to see if max temps need to be adjusted. At this point, no changes have been made to the morning update. Today: Aloft, longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep upper low across New England and eastern Canada. At the surface, the flow pattern will remain cyclonic around the deepening surface low moving across New England and the presence of a surface trough later in the day. Overall, the main story of the day will be a notably drier airmass and temperatures forecast to actually be slightly below normal for late May. Low-level westerly flow should allow us to out perform low-level thickness progs and the forecast advertises low to mid 80s across the area. Westerly winds will be a bit breezy, with frequent gusts up to around 20 mph from midday onward. Tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue with drier and cooler air in place. The forecast remains dry and lows are expected to drop into the low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over the East Coast in the morning, with an embedded Low north of New England. These features should hover in place through the day. Overnight, the Low lifts further north and weakens, while a weak shortwave rounds the base of the trough, approaching our area from the west late. At the surface, weak High pressure may be near the FL Panhandle in the morning and then in the vicinity of our area in the evening. Additionally, a dissipating cold front may move through our area late at night. PWATs ~1" in the morning should rise to ~1.25" as time progresses. These values are below normal. Hence, the deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But given the PWATs and model soundings, it might be hard to get any rainfall, so we kept the forecast dry. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Monday: A mid-level trough will stretch from New England down into the Southeast in the morning. A shortwave will round the base of this trough in the morning and afternoon, moving over our area. The trough axis should shift offshore in the evening and overnight, followed by ridging building in from the west. A surface cold front should be located just to our east and southeast in the morning, quickly moving away. Meanwhile, High pressure will be near the Middle Appalachians. The High will gradually move towards the Mid-Atlantic region as time progresses. PWATs will remain ~1.25, which is still below normal. The deterministic models start out dry, but then point towards isolated showers along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Given all of the models generally have this, we went with slight chance POPs. But the low PWATs and model soundings will make it hard for widespread convection to develop. Overnight will be dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows will be around 60 degrees far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of a strong ridge building over the East Coast. At the surface, High pressure over the Mid-Alantic region in the morning will shift into the Atlantic late in the day. Models hint that PWATs initially ~1.25" may drop through the day. The deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But the NBM keeps our area dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong mid-level ridging will prevail build over the Southeast U.S. through Thursday, then start moving offshore on Friday. High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail, ushering moisture into our area. This pattern will yield diurnal convection. Temperatures will rise to above normal by Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty W winds are expected in the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Northwest winds will peak this morning then diminish a bit into the afternoon as they turn more west or west-southwest. Speeds should top out in the 15-20 knot range. Overnight, winds are expected to be westerly and no higher than 15 knots. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period, with up to 4 feet at times in the outer waters. Extended Marine: Outside of potential diurnal convection, no Small Craft Advisories are expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232729 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:06 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 954 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Troughing will continue over the Carolinas today as another cold front approaches. The front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore late next week, increasing moisture and rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 10 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Latest analysis shows low pressure over the Delmarva, with attendant sfc cold now offshore. Much of today will be dry, sunny and seasonable, as dewpoints continue to fall into the 50s. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. By late afternoon an upper level shortwave trough will drop down through VA and into NC, sparking convective chances. CAMs remain in good agreement showing sct showers and storms developing late this afternoon and early evening...likely beginning across the northern forecast area and pushing SSE into the evening. SPC continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for severe wx, with potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. While there will be plenty of shear in place (bulk shear greater than 50 kt), the lack of moisture (dewpoints in the 50s) and instability (ML CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg) may limit the overall svr threat. While models due show a surge of 700 mb RH, it may not arrive until after the best instability. This coupled with the fact that the best jet dynamics will remain mainly in southern VA add to the uncertainty of severe weather making it southward into Eastern NC. If there is some sustained growth, then the threat for hail increases as freezing levels are only about 10 kft. On the damaging wind side of things, DCAPE values are greatest in the afternoon, but again the limited moisture may inhibit development. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Isolated strong to svr thunderstorm risk will continue early this evening. Stacked low will continue to lift into the NE US and southern Quebec, while weak attendant cold front pushes through the region and troughing continues aloft. Scattered showers and storms likely to be ongoing early this evening, grad sinking SSE and offshore by late evening. Iso svr threat will continue for the first part of the evening. Convection likely ending by midnight, with drier air filtering in and low level NNW developing behind the front. Lows falling into the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s for the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 AM Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Sunday (6/1): Quiet start to the day, but a shortwave moving through the region brings chances of showers and tstorms Sunday into Sunday night. There is some model discrepancy on when the shortwave bringing convection rolls through. If it happens earlier in the day (like the 00Z HRRR), steeper low level lapse rates paired with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear could promote multicell to marginally supercellular storm modes with wind the primary concern, and hail secondary. SPC has a marginal (1/5) outlook for portions of the CWA Sunday to cover this threat. If the shortwave moves through after sunset, low level lapse rates will be less impressive, decreasing the overall severe threat. Monday (6/2) - Friday (6/6): Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Thursday highs are expected to be near 90 inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. Friday high pressure offshore will help funnel gulf moisture ahead of a trough moving through Saturday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy WSW winds today, with gusts peaking 20-25 kt this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Some storms could be strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected Sunday. High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sat... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions will continue through this evening - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt with seas 4-8 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 3-6 ft north. A cold front will continue to push offshore this morning. W winds expected to diminish to 15-20 kt later this morning, increasing to 15-25 kt this afternoon and evening. Winds grad diminish after midnight tonight, becoming NNW early Sun morning. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rvrs through this evening and the first part of tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, a few could become strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232726 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 727 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A pre-frontal band of broken showers and storms will continue to press southward early this morning across our north-central FL zones where isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible through daybreak, especially along and south of a GNV to SGJ line. Drier and relatively `cooler` air will filter across SE GA early this morning trailing the morning cold front passage. Prevailing dry conditions are expected across all zones by late morning, with only a low 20% chance of an afternoon shower across Marion- Putnam- Flagler counties where surface convergence peaks near the surface trough and low level river/lake/sea breeze convergence. Dry conditions continue tonight with weak trough across the local area. Could have some shallow ground fog across portions of north- central FL toward sunrise. High temperatures are still on track to `cool` back toward near average values today trailing the frontal passage with max temps in the mid/upper 80s. For JAX, this will be the first day since May 14 we expect highs in the 80s. May 2025 will likely go down as the warmest May on record for JAX. Mild low temperatures tonight will trend a little below average with drier air in place with lows near 60 inland to mid/upper 60s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Surface cold front remains settled just south of the area on Sunday in addition to plenty of drier air at both the low levels and aloft, resulting in a dry and seasonably warm end to the weekend with dew points/humidity generally lower than normal, especially away from the coast. WEak ridging and therefore light low level flow will also allow the sea breeze to form and penetrate at least about 20 to 30 miles inland. The vast majority of the CWA, if not the entire CWA, will likely remain dry and void of any convection Sunday. However, cannot fully rule out an isolated shower or perhaps a rumble or two of thunder over Flagler/Putnam/Marion County Sunday Afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland - though chances are around 10 percent or less at this time. Otherwise, just some diurnal clouds with seasonable temps in the upper 80s north and at the coast and low 90s elsewhere. Just some mid and high clouds Sunday Night with lows ranging from the 60s inland to low 70s closer to the coast and St. Johns River. A shortwave impulse and dry front approaches and moves across the region throughout the day Monday and into Monday Night. This will reinforce surface high pressure across the area for the start of the work week, while also shifting flow direction from a continental direction Sunday to an onshore direction by Monday. The subsidence will be battling it out with the onshore flow and slight upward trend in low level moisture/PWATs, with the end result being similar to slightly higher chances for showers and t`storms, especially over similar areas to Sunday. Temperatures "average out" to similar numbers compared to Sunday, with mainly lower 90s and upper 80s near the coast. Mostly clear skies expected Monday Night with lows once again similar to Sunday Night: 60s inland and low to mid 70s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure moves off into the Atlantic Tuesday and into mid week, persisting more of an onshore flow regime and gradually increasing layer moisture during the process. Long term guidance is coming into better agreement with respect to an upper low/TUTT low forming east of the Florida Peninsula around the Tuesday Night and Wednesday time frame, likely drifting across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf through late week. This, combined with the onshore flow, will continue to increase layer moisture and therefore chances for diurnal convection into late next week. Temperatures trend near or perhaps even slightly below average closer to the coast with the breezy onshore flow to start to the long term period, with this trend become more near to slightly above average by mid to late week as high pressure moves north and east further into the Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Lingering MVFR CIGS at GNV briefly this morning, otherwise decreasing high clouds and VFR conds the rest of the day with NW winds increasing to 10 knots with occasional gusts to 15 knots through the afternoon hours. Just a few high clouds tonight after sunset with some patchy MVFR fog expected at VQQ from 07-11Z, with lower chances at GNV towards sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Thunderstorms will impact the Florida coastal waters early this morning ahead of a cold front. Breezy NW winds 15 to 20 kts early this morning continue the Small Craft Exercise Caution headline, with improving conditions after daybreak as winds back W 5 to 10 knots into the afternoon. Dry conditions develop by afternoon. A second front will move across the local waters tonight but thunderstorms are not expected. A front lingers over the region Monday as high pressure builds north of the region. The high builds northeast Tuesday and Wednesday with a coastal trough over the local waters and increasing daily shower and thunderstorm potential. RIP CURRENTS: Low risk today for SE GA and NE FL beaches with offshore flow. Low risk continues for SE GA beaches Sunday with a moderate risk for NE FL beaches as SE winds develop into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 87 69 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 88 63 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 87 67 90 70 / 20 0 0 10 GNV 87 63 92 67 / 20 0 0 10 OCF 88 64 91 67 / 40 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232722 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 629 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There is still a chance for some isolated showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms this morning along the coastal locations and Gulf waters. However, mostly tranquil conditions can be expected for later today into tonight as surface high pressure over northern and northeastern TX dominates the local weather pattern. High temperatures today will be mainly in the upper 80s and the lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and the lower 70s for the rest of the inland portions. A mid to upper level shortwave and associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms will make its way southward across eastern OK Saturday night into Sunday morning and eastern TX during the afternoon to evening hours. Hi-Res guidance suggest the cluster of showers and storms arriving the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region during the morning hours, but weaken quickly as they progress southward. Then, guidance show another round of showers and thunderstorms developing to our north and northwest, which would move then into Southeast TX later in the afternoon into the early night hours. There is still some uncertainty as to how strong these storms will be and how much of Southeast TX will be affected by them. This second batch of storms does look to be the stronger one out of the two, given that conditions in the afternoon to evening may become favorable for strong to severe storms, capable of producing strong winds and hail. However, as we have seen it happen in the past few days, we will need to see if the morning storms take all the "juice" out of the environment and not allow us to recover as much during the afternoon hours. At this time, I continued with slight chances for showers and storms for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the morning hours and increase PoPs and expand them further south as the afternoon progresses. I also kept slight chances in the evening to night hours in case some of these showers take a little longer to dissipate. That being said, there may be further changes to this forecast (maybe higher PoPs if needed) as models come into a better agreement on the strength and coverage of these storms. I will note here that SPC has placed a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for areas north of a line extending from northern Washington County to eastern Trinity County while the rest of Southeast TX has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday. Main threats are damaging winds and hail, but cannot rule out a brief/isolated tornado. Although some of these storms may carry heavy rainfall at times, we are currently not expecting significant flooding impacts with this activity. However, ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas are possible. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates and remember to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings. Cotto (24) && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There remains not a whole lot to say about the long term at this time beyond...yup, it`s early summer! A quick summary of the Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index reveals a whole lot of white across Southeast Texas, indicating very little potential for extreme events through next week. One small bit of 0.5-0.6 values near the coast emerges later next week, indicating an "extreme" event is possible is later next week for minimum temperatures. Basically from Monday night/Tuesday morning onward, I`ve got low temps at/above 80 degrees beginning to encroach on Galveston and other communities on the immediate coast (Anahuac, High Island, Surfside, etc). These increasing warm nights do not surprise me too overly much. We`ll have persistent onshore flow through this period, keeping a strong Gulf connection to keep dewpoints high at night, especially closer to the coast. High dewpoints will keep the temperature floor high, and given how compressed our temperature range can get in the summer, it doesn`t take a huge boost to the temperature floor to start having to consider the potential for record high min temps. Patches of 0.5+ EFI aren`t the strongest indicator of unusually hot nights ahead, but does signal it to be something to be on the watch for. One other thing we`ll have to be mindful of? A weak cold front will be approaching the region mid to late week next week. But man, this front looks so weak. (This is where you go "How weak is it?") It looks so weak, I doubt it makes it much past the Red River, much less anywhere close to Southeast Texas. But...it and the upper trough supporting it may get near enough to help enhance our typical diurnal showers and storms some. So I roll with some modestly higher PoPs (thinking like 30s or so rather than 15ish percent each day), at least north of the Houston metro for Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 UTS currently under LIFR conditions, and a few other sites under MVFR conditions due to fog and lower cloud decks. Fog is expected to dissipate quickly shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day. Winds will be mainly N-NE today at 4-8 KT and becoming light and VRB late evening into Sun morning. Some sites could see the return of MVFR conditions during the overnight period. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to moderate north to northeast winds are expected in the front`s wake through this morning and early afternoon. Through the afternoon, winds will begin to veer, becoming south to southeast tonight. Onshore winds are expected to increase early next week, resulting in gradually building swell. As those winds gradually build, small craft may need to exercise caution on Tuesday and even a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on the coastal Gulf waters. Daily potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also exist. At the shore, persistent onshore winds next week could lead to strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches as well as minor rises in water levels during the upcoming week. At times of high tide, guidance suggests continued water levels around 2.5-3.0 feet above MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 87 69 93 72 / 0 0 20 20 Houston (IAH) 88 72 93 74 / 10 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 77 88 79 / 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232721 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 723 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1121 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 An active weather pattern begins this weekend in South Florida as mid-level troughing pushes over the region and a weak frontal boundary is forecast to stall across the region. With the potential for lingering Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust hanging over the region and it`s influence, the stalled boundary will significantly enhance moisture across the southern FL Peninsula, especially across the eastern metro corridor. The latest HREF model guidance is emphasizing that showers and thunderstorms will have the greatest impact to the north of Alligator Alley (60-75%) on Saturday. The probability for substantial instability to support strong to severe thunderstorms is more favorable to the north of Alligator Alley and declines as activity moves further south across the region. However, there will be chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, with the threat for stronger storms slightly lower on Sunday. The potential for one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out during peak diurnal heating in the afternoon on Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon will be accompanied with the potential for gusty winds, brief downpours, and frequent lightning. On Saturday, the SPC has issued a majority of South Florida in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with a 5-14% probability for severe winds. These storms will also be efficient rainfall producers due to the amount of deep layer tropical moisture trying to work into the region. This could lead to the potential for localized flooding on both Saturday and Sunday depending on where the stronger storms set up. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will generally rise into the upper 80s along and north of Alligator Alley, and into the lower 90s south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1121 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 An unsettled pattern continues to shape up heading into the early portion of next week as the surface frontal boundary remains stalled over South Florida. Mid-level longwave troughing will remain in place. However, a secondary vort max will come down and round the base of the trough on Monday into Monday night which may aid in trough amplification over the region. This secondary vort max plays a big role in the forecast and while the degree of uncertainty is still rather high, trends in the guidance over the past 12 to 24 hours have show signals of shifting to a stronger vort max pushing further south closer to the region. This will add an extra source of lift to the area when combined with the stalled out frontal boundary draped across the region. With the SAL gradually eroding over the region, PWAT values will increase as the drier air pocket slowly begins to fade away. This could allow for PWAT values to rise (1.8- 2.0") across a good portion of the region. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, this will continue to keep the threat for localized urban flooding across the east coast metro areas. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms with the strong shortwave passing through. These storms may have the threat for strong gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours on Monday afternoon and evening. Details regarding this event will be monitored as the day approaches. Heading towards the middle of the week, the forecast takes on additional uncertainty as amplifying mid level troughing tries to wrap up into a mid level low off of the Southeast coastline. The latest guidance suite remains in disagreement with the evolution of this low in regard to location and how strong it actually becomes. ECMWF solutions shows a stronger mid level low developing further to the north, while GFS solutions show a weaker mid level low developing further to the south off of the Florida Coastline. At the same time, a stronger plume of Saharan Dust may push into South Florida from the Carribean which could potentially bring some drier air into the region which could affect convection coverage. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps likely chances of showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures towards the middle of next week will be near climatological normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR could be likely at all sites later today as a cold front approaches. Best timing for impacts look to be between 18-22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail before the afternoon with generally westerly winds up to 10-12 kts. Convection will taper off around sunset and winds will relax overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 A gentle to moderate winds will gradually become more westerly over the weekend as a frontal boundary moves over the region and stalls out. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase over the weekend as the frontal boundary pushes over the local waters. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the upcoming weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Any thunderstorm that develops may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 78 91 78 / 60 40 60 60 West Kendall 94 75 92 75 / 50 40 60 60 Opa-Locka 94 78 93 77 / 60 40 60 50 Homestead 93 77 91 76 / 40 40 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 Pembroke Pines 96 78 94 78 / 70 40 70 50 West Palm Beach 90 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40 Boca Raton 93 75 91 75 / 70 50 80 50 Naples 88 75 87 76 / 60 70 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232717 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 702 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring a round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through this morning. A period of drier weather is expected late morning into the afternoon before another round of scattered showers arrives later today into tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible too. Drier weather follows Sunday into much of next week, except Thursday and/or Friday, with the risk for scattered showers & thunderstorms. A warming trend is likely too, with highs in the 80s mid to late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Showers and thunderstorms continue into this morning. Locally heavy rainfall and some street flooding possible, especially western MA/CT. * Drying out late morning into the afternoon, especially east, but a few late day showers/t-storms are possible. We`re in the thick of the much advertised period of widespread rain showers with some elevated thunderstorms associated with an anomolous mid level trough which is currently digging into New England. Mesoscale analysis and WV satellite imagery show the center of the vertically stacked low directly over the Mid Atlantic where the heaviest rainfall currently is falling. As this low lifts directly over SNE the heaviest and steadiest bands of precipitation will fall to the NW of the low, over western MA and CT. This is where the most rainfall is expected by the time all is said and done Saturday evening. We continue to expect generally 1 to 2 inches of rain, but with locally higher amounts as high resolution guidance indicates the potential for as much as 3 to 4 inches; at this time those highest amounts are more likely just to the west of our region. Regardless, some localized street flooding is possible, especially under any training cells or convection. Instability is marginal (up to 500-850 mb) and elevated so not expecting any severe weather, but rather garden variety thunderstorms embedded in showers, especially between 8 am and 2 pm. A dry slot eventually moves over eastern MA/RI bringing an end to widespread rainfall by mid to late morning. Rain likely continues most of the day further west. Then, some additional moisture is pulled in on the back side in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave rounds the base of the trough. This may kick off another round of less widespread showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two, generally along and northwest of the I-95 corridor. Instability is more limited with this round (dependent on how many breaks of sun we get) and the shear environment is unfavorable, so severe weather is not expected. Showers come to an end by 10 pm with drier westerly flow bringing a good amount of clearing. Cold advection in the low/mid levels will support lows in the upper 40s (warmer along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry Sunday, but cooler than normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Dry on Sunday under westerly flow under slowly rising heights. The upper trough remains overhead with a cold pool aloft and this together with lingering low/mid level moisture will lead to a good amount of diurnal cloud cover. Given the colder air aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry week ahead, a cold front late in the week brings the next chance for appreciable rainfall. * Warming trend this week, Wednesday and Thursday will be summery with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Fairly quiet weather on Monday, will have a mixture of clouds as the region is under cyclonic flow. 850mb temperatures begin to increase, from +3C Sunday to +7C Monday, resulting in warmer temperatures for Monday afternoon. Highs are in the upper 60s near the coast to the lower 70s inland. Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave pivots about the departing system, do not expect any precipitation as PWATs fall to less than 1/2". Mid-level trough moves off shore Tuesday with rising heights as the ridge shifts into New England. Dry and warming conditions Tuesday to Thursday, the one potential issue would be if the ridge pinches off the departing trough and results in weaker cut-off low east of the region. Only a few members show this, thus think the warm and dry conditions will prevail. 850mb temperatures Tuesday increase towards +8C and +10C, but really increase for Wednesday and Thursday as those temperatures are +15C to +18C. Should have highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast, near the coast those temperatures are in the lower 70s. Wednesday and Thursday it will be summer like with highs well into the 80s. Looking for relief the south coast will likely be a bit cooler in the upper 70s due to the SSW flow. And with this flow, will have increasing due points into the low 60s, so will feel muggy as well. As for nighttime relief, doesn`t appear to be much with lows Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday night in the low to middle 60s. Our next chance for rain would come late in the week, late Thursday or perhaps Friday as a cold front moves in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR cigs with areas of fog near the south coast. Showers and sct t-storms will continue, then lift to the north after 14z. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Conditions improving to MVFR, possibly VFR during the afternoon after wind shift to W. Gusts to 25-30 kt developing during the afternoon, locally higher over the Cape and islands, especially Nantucket. A few late day showers or a t-storm possible. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts in the afternoon, locally higher to 30 kts over the Cape and Islands. BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in vsby potential and timing. BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in exact timing and specific details. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... Winds becoming SW 12-18z today followed by gusts to 25-35 kt developing, higher to 40 kts possible over southern waters. Seas building to 8-10 ft over southern waters as well. SCA in effect for all waters. Showers and sct t-storms moving over the waters this morning with poor vsbys in fog, with some improvement developing during the afternoon. Saturday night...High Confidence. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Seas 6-10 ft. Sunday...High Confidence. W winds 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts. Seas 4-7 ft. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-231-236-251. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
| #1232716 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 703 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep upper low across New England and eastern Canada. At the surface, the flow pattern will remain cyclonic around the deepening surface low moving across New England and the presence of a surface trough later in the day. Overall, the main story of the day will be a notably drier airmass and temperatures forecast to actually be slightly below normal for late May. Low-level westerly flow should allow us to out perform low- level thickness progs and the forecast advertises low to mid 80s across the area. Westerly winds will be a bit breezy, with frequent gusts up to around 20 mph from midday onward. Tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue with drier and cooler air in place. The forecast remains dry and lows are expected to drop into the low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over the East Coast in the morning, with an embedded Low north of New England. These features should hover in place through the day. Overnight, the Low lifts further north and weakens, while a weak shortwave rounds the base of the trough, approaching our area from the west late. At the surface, weak High pressure may be near the FL Panhandle in the morning and then in the vicinity of our area in the evening. Additionally, a dissipating cold front may move through our area late at night. PWATs ~1" in the morning should rise to ~1.25" as time progresses. These values are below normal. Hence, the deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But given the PWATs and model soundings, it might be hard to get any rainfall, so we kept the forecast dry. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Monday: A mid-level trough will stretch from New England down into the Southeast in the morning. A shortwave will round the base of this trough in the morning and afternoon, moving over our area. The trough axis should shift offshore in the evening and overnight, followed by ridging building in from the west. A surface cold front should be located just to our east and southeast in the morning, quickly moving away. Meanwhile, High pressure will be near the Middle Appalachians. The High will gradually move towards the Mid-Atlantic region as time progresses. PWATs will remain ~1.25, which is still below normal. The deterministic models start out dry, but then point towards isolated showers along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Given all of the models generally have this, we went with slight chance POPs. But the low PWATs and model soundings will make it hard for widespread convection to develop. Overnight will be dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows will be around 60 degrees far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of a strong ridge building over the East Coast. At the surface, High pressure over the Mid-Alantic region in the morning will shift into the Atlantic late in the day. Models hint that PWATs initially ~1.25" may drop through the day. The deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But the NBM keeps our area dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong mid-level ridging will prevail build over the Southeast U.S. through Thursday, then start moving offshore on Friday. High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail, ushering moisture into our area. This pattern will yield diurnal convection. Temperatures will rise to above normal by Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty W winds are expected in the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Northwest winds will peak this morning then diminish a bit into the afternoon as they turn more west or west- southwest. Speeds should top out in the 15-20 knot range. Overnight, winds are expected to be westerly and no higher than 15 knots. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period, with up to 4 feet at times in the outer waters. Extended Marine: Outside of potential diurnal convection, no Small Craft Advisories are expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232715 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 651 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. A few showers are possible across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Breezy today with westerly winds gusting to 25-30 mph through the afternoon. - Scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon. A few storms may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. Temps as of 640 AM ranged from the mid 50s to around 60F across the area. Early morning surface analysis depicted a ~987mb area of low pressure near NYC. Rain has moved out of the area this morning. W winds continue to be breezy, particularly across the Eastern Shore where winds were gusting to ~30 mph. Winds remain breezy through the day, averaging around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph through the afternoon across the entire CWA. Aloft, an anomalously strong trough continues to strengthen across the Eastern CONUS today. At the surface, an area of low pressure deepens as it tracks NE into New England later today. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front (associated with additional shortwave energy from the parent trough) moves across the area during the afternoon. This will allow for very cool temps aloft for late May, which therefore will allow for very steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates of ~7C (locally ~7.5C) are expected this afternoon. Even though dew points remain in the 50s this afternoon, the cool temps aloft will allow for SBCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg (locally around 1500 J/kg) across much of the area (500-1000 J/kg across the NW portions of the area). A strong gradient in 0-6km shear is expected today with a belt of ~60 kt of 0-6km shear extending from the OH Valley SE into NC. This will allow for 40-60 kt of 0-6km shear across the S/SW half of the area with weaker values of 20-30 kt across NE/N portions of the area. Given the steep lapse rates, high LCLs, and low freezing levels, a favorable setup for at least small hail is expected to develop. Scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon (potentially as early as around noon), moving SE with time. Given the favorable hail setup, stronger showers/storms are likely to have at least small hail with them. However, if a storm is able to become strong enough, severe hail is possible (potentially larger than quarters) given SHIP values >1. Additionally, the lapse rates only steepen towards the surface which will allow for strong winds to efficiently mix to the surface. As such, SPC has the entire area under a MARGINAL (level 1/5) risk for hail and wind today. Convection quickly tapers off by this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s N to the upper 70s S under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight cool into the upper 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Aloft, a strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Mon. At the surface, a stationary front S of the local area Sun morning potentially lifts N into S portions of the FA Sun afternoon and evening before dropping back S Sun night. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. Recent model trends have been for the stationary front to linger close enough to S portions of the FA that a few isolated showers/storms may develop across SE VA/NE NC Sun afternoon into Sun evening as another shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave trough. However, confidence remains low that convection will make it as far N as the local area at this time PoPs of 15-30%. Will note that SPC has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sun. While severe weather is not expected over the local area Sun at this time, if the front trends N, this could change. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid-upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low-mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Aloft, an upper level trough slides offshore Tue with a ridge moving into the East Coast from mid to late week. The EURO/EPS has trended towards the GFS/GEFS in showing a more progressive pattern as opposed to a cutoff low lingering near the coast early next week. As such, confidence has increased in a significant warmup beginning Tue and continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs increase from the mid 80s Tue to the upper 80s Wed and around 90F Thu and Fri. Dry weather is expected with this warmup through Thu night. Ensembles show signs of a trough approaching by Fri into the weekend, leading to an unsettled pattern developing. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... Clouds increase in coverage from W to E this morning with SCT CU (BKN CU at SBY) developing by late morning and continuing into through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop this afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY. As such, have added a TEMPO at SBY. Otherwise, confidence in exact timing and coverage remains too low at the other terminals to go with prevailing TSRA in the TAFs. Instead have opted for VCTS and PROB30 for now. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through this afternoon. Winds quickly diminish this evening to 5-10 kt, eventually becoming light and variable overnight as high pressure builds in. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few coastal showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... - Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters through 7 AM this morning. - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the rivers and Currituck Sound through 4 PM this afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. A vigorous upper trough is pushing across the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning. At the surface, 991mb low pressure is centered over northern NJ, with the trailing cold front well offshore. A strong westerly wind of 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt has developed over the Ches. Bay and this should expand over the coastal waters early this morning. Seas are expected to build to 4-6ft, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Elsewhere, a W wind is primarily 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt. Gale Warnings remain in effect through 7 AM for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. A WSW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt persists through this aftn for the nearshore waters, primarily the rivers and Currituck Sound where SCAs have been extended through 4 PM. The wind will likely begin to relax a few hours earlier over the open waters, but a period of SCAs will be necessary for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters once the Gale Warnings end. Seas/waves subside to 3-4ft/2-3ft by this aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected this aftn, and again, some could be strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay, primarily N of New Point Comfort. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... A strong westerly wind will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding along the Bay-side of the Eastern Shore during high tide early this morning. The primary corridor where minor flooding is forecast is from Saxis, VA to Bishops Head, MD. High tide at Saxis is 3:41AM EDT, high tide at Crisfield is 4:27AM EDT, and high tide at Bishops Head is 5:21AM EDT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>638. && $$ |
| #1232714 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 651 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 - Broken band of showers and lightning storms (60-70% coverage) will push across the I-4 corridor early this morning, Brevard and Osceola thru mid-morning, and Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late morning-early afternoon, all ahead of a late season "cool" front. Today carries a Marginal Risk (beginning north and ending south) of marginally severe wind gusts (60+ mph), small hail, and brief urban flooding from stronger storms. - The front stalls over south Florida by Sunday, limiting rain and storm chances mainly to the Treasure Coast and southern Space Coast to close out the weekend. - Seasonably warm to hot conditions persist into next week, with a brief drop in humidity across the I-4 corridor late this weekend as drier air filters in briefly behind the front. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Current-tonight...Weak "cool" frontal boundary dropping southward across north FL early this morning. Out ahead of this feature, a broken band of showers and embedded lightning storms is moving east/southeast across north-central FL. The convection will continue to press southward arriving across the I-4 corridor ahead of sunrise, into Osceola/Brevard counties ahead of/thru mid- morning, finally Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late morning/early afternoon. Mid-level energy will aid this system as it passes south. Most probable impacts include lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-55 mph locally - few gusts to around 60 mph in play, torrential downpours, and perhaps some small hail. The strong to marginally severe storm threat will end, from north to south, as the storms through. Any one location may experience 1-2 hrs (max) of storm activity, though lighter debris rain could last a bit longer. With mainly cloud conditions, skies will gradually improve thru late afternoon/early evening (north-south). Clouds/precip will limit high temps, though it will remain humid. Max temps forecast in the M80s with a few U80s sprinkled in. Outside of showers and storms, expect mainly SW/W/WNW winds 8-15 mph (highest along the Space/Treasure coasts). The front does not make a clean passage southward and becomes quasi-stationary near Lake Okee. With ample moisture south of Orlando, energy aloft and proximity to front - expect some renewed convection tonight (esp late) generally south Brevard-Osceola southward. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible late tonight into early Sun morning. Conditions humid, again, tonight with lows well into the 60s to L70s. SW/W winds light this evening and overnight. Sun-Sun Night...The pattern remains unsettled with the front aligned east-west across the Lake Okee region early in the period. We continue with some "troughiness" aloft and deep moisture, with PWATs around 2 inches south-central FL. While we do advertise PoPs (20-30pct) across the I-4 corridor, greatest precip chances extend southward (60-80pct) toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. The moisture/precip gradient will remain rather tight. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible here - esp early. Main storm impacts continue to be gusty winds, lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and small to coin-size hail. The pressure gradient remains rather weak so we will see some variation in wind component, but generally SSW/SW outside of convection. Winds could back more S/SE toward the coast. Max temps return to U80s to potentially a few L90s. Lows continue near seasonal with conditions muggy. Mon-Mon Night...A vigorous mid-level trough is forecast to pass across the FL peninsula on Mon. Temps at 500mb will average -9C to - 11C and moisture return northward could be key to another active day for esp afternoon-evening lightning storms. For now have 30-50pct across the I-4 corridor and 50-80pct south thru Martin County - where moisture is deepest. Sea/lake breeze, convective boundary interactions will all play a role as well. WRLY steering flow still favors late day convection across the eastern peninsula. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible esp our southern coverage warning area. Activity will wind down and push off the coast during the evening. Even with considerable cloudiness forecast, afternoon temps will recover into the U80s and perhaps a few L90s if enough sunshine can occur. Overnight lows remain consistent. Tue-Fri...As mid/upper level troughing pushes off/away from the Eastern Seaboard, shortwave ridging builds across the Gulf Coast States, southeast U.S., and north FL. At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid Atlc States builds into the western Atlc with associated ridge axis gradually building back across north FL. Deepening moisture gradually builds back into the area. Mainly SCT afternoon/evening convection forecast each day. Storm steering becomes light and somewhat variable into mid-week. E/SE winds will be common during the day with speeds 5-10 mph and higher along the coast, with the ECSB developing and pushing inland. Seasonably warm temperatures prevail through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Today-Wed...A weak late-season "cool" front slides southward and becomes quasi-stationary today across the southern waters. This boundary will be preceded by a broken band of showers/embedded lightning storms that will move into the Volusia waters ahead of sunrise, Brevard waters thru mid-morning, and Treasure Coast waters late morning-early afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Primary impacts will be cloud-to- water lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong wind gusts, torrential downpours, and small hail. The front is forecast to gradually dissipate early next week as high pressure builds over the Southeast U.S. SW/W winds slacken later this afternoon into Sun, slowly turning from W to S at around 10 kts. Early next week winds become onshore (E/SE). Initial seas 2-4 ft this morning into early afternoon subside to 1-2 ft Sun night thru early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 MCO IMPACTS: - Band of lightning storms expected around Greater Orlando through around 13Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR within the storms. - 20-30% chance of wind gusts 35+ KT through around 13Z. Ongoing bands of storms moving across our Greater Orlando terminals this morning will slowly push southeastward, reaching the Treasure Coast terminals late morning/midday. Primary hazards will be sudden gusts and frequent lightning. There is a low (20-30%) chance for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT at any given terminal with this activity. Quieter conds this afternoon with VFR prevailing once storms pass. Winds predominantly WSW 5-12 KT through the period. Very low chance for convective redevelopment this afternoon/evening (20-30%). Additional showers/storms redeveloping esp for Treasure Coast terminals overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Post-frontal (drier) conditions on Sun will drive min aftn RH values to 35-40pct north/west of I-4. Otherwise, scattered (occasionally numerous) coverage of lightning storms remain in the forecast into early next week. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. For today, an early start as a pre-frontal band of showers/embedded storms drop south to the I-4 corridor thru sunrise, slowly pushing south thru the remainder of the morning and early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 67 88 69 / 40 0 10 20 MCO 85 71 88 72 / 60 10 30 30 MLB 85 71 87 72 / 70 30 40 40 VRB 86 70 87 70 / 70 40 60 50 LEE 85 69 89 71 / 40 0 10 20 SFB 86 69 90 71 / 60 10 20 20 ORL 85 71 90 72 / 60 10 30 30 FPR 87 69 87 70 / 70 50 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232713 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 645 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air and near to below-normal temperatures are expected over the weekend, with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible this evening, mainly across northern and western areas. A cold front will bring another chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm mainly from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has pushed offshore this morning although the 5h trough axis will be slower to shift offshore. In fact the 5h trough axis becomes hard to find as the base of the trough flattens and a couple shortwaves move through the flow aloft. Surface high to west weakly builds in today, with more westerly flow vs the more typical northwest flow following a cold front. The northwest flow will arrive with a secondary cold that arrives very late tonight. Today`s post front airmass will be dry and breezy, but not really cooler. In fact highs will likely end up the same or possibly a degree or so warmer than Fri due to the much drier air and more abundant sunshine. Afternoon humidity is likely to dip under 40% along with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph as strong winds at the top of the mixed layer surface once some heating can get mixing going. The strongest shortwave moves across the area mid to late morning, setting up subsidence for much of the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a nice subsidence inversion in place for much of the afternoon as well as a deep layer of dry air aloft. As the post wave subsidence wanes, there will be a slight increase in PVA ahead of a much weaker shortwave expected late afternoon/evening. Guidance is split on potential with this wave. A lot of the reliable global models keep the area dry while the CAMs support some convection across the northern edges of the forecast area. The environment seems quite unfavorable for the development of anything more than a short-lived, low topped shower. It could be a case of the CAMs overdoing convection (as they has been the case recently) thus only carrying a slight chance pop for a few hours late in the day, but will not be shocked if nothing develops. Lows below normal tonight with the drier air mass and late surge of cooler air following a second cold front. Boundary layer winds will help keep temperatures warmer than what 850 temps around 10C would suggest. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday, a weak cold front/surface trough initially sent down by the aforementioned shortwave during the preceding night will stall, resulting in westerly low-level flow across the area. This boundary may drift back northward during the morning as its parent shortwave pivots away, but another shortwave will pivot down towards the area on Sunday, pushing the front offshore by early Monday morning. Enhanced low-level moisture (primarily around and below 700mb) over the Mid-South on the southwestern periphery of the broader eastern US trough is expected to translate east-southeastward across the southern Appalachians and combine with forcing provided by the trough and the surface cold front to yield scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the boundary. These should initiate upstream over the mountains and eventually reach the forecast area from late on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and relatively cool mid-level temperatures within the trough should yield at least weak instability with modest effective shear around 25-30 kts. SPC currently highlights northern and western portions of the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday, with a storm or two capable of producing severe wind gusts around 60mph and hail up to quarter size possible late in the afternoon as activity reaches the area before nocturnal cooling largely eliminates the already low severe threat. Otherwise, fast-moving showers should be the main story over Sunday evening and overnight, with winds turning northerly behind the front early Monday morning. Precip totals should generally average a tenth inch or less, but a couple stripes of higher amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range are possible where the heaviest rain occurs. As the trough axis swings through Monday afternoon, cold mid-level temps combined with surface heating may be enough to yield isolated pop-up showers, mainly along the sea breeze. Temperatures will hold near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid-upper troughing shifts eastward and is replaced by ridging during the first half of the week. This will result in increasing temperatures, especially after high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday. A curious feature that has recently shown up in the guidance is a shortwave trough diving out of the Plains and setting up shop around the Florida Peninsula early in the week. The interplay between this wave and ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will determine how soon unsettled weather returns to the forecast area, especially as another broad trough is expected to cross the CONUS and reach the East late in the week, with an attendant cold front bringing rain chances back into the picture by Friday. Until any unsettled weather returns, however, temperatures are expected to warm above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s during the latter half of the week while lows gradually rise through the 60s with each passing night as dew points creep up in return flow around the offshore high. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through 12Z Sunday. Gusty west- northwest winds will develop around 14Z and continue through the day as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Winds drop under 10 kt in the evening with development of northwest to north winds just before 12Z following the passage of a cold front. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Offshore flow in the wake of a cold front will continue into this afternoon before winds start backing to southwest ahead of another front. The second front arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sun with northwest to north winds developing by the end of the period. Short duration of enhanced southwest flow this afternoon/evening may build seas to 3-5 ft, but otherwise seas will be 2-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southwest wind wave and a southeast swell. Sunday through Wednesday... The flow will become variable on Sunday as a surface trough lifts back northward during the day, with southerly flow around 10 kts during the afternoon ahead of another cold front. This front will push through during the night with northerly winds arriving in its wake early on Monday. Surface high pressure west of the area will shift closer to the coast and eventually move offshore on Wednesday. Expect winds to gradually veer to easterly, then southeasterly as this draws closer, although speeds should remain around 10 kts or less through Wednesday. Seas largely hold in the 1-2 ft range in light of the generally weak flow regime. Southeasterly swells of 1-2 ft at 8-9 sec over the weekend will be replaced by 1-2 ft northeasterly to easterly swells with a period of 6 sec early in the week. South- southwesterly wind waves over the weekend will become less prominent during the week as the northeasterly swell takes over. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232712 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 536 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate Risk for Heat-Related Impacts today and Sunday A mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into South Texas Saturday and hang around through the end of the weekend. Before this ridge slides into the region, a shortwave is expected to traverse across South Texas from the south tomorrow promoting low chances (20- 25%) for showers and thunderstorms. With increased subsidence and drier air Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected to close out the weekend. Therefore, the are of moderate risk for heat-related impacts will spread out to cover most of the Brush Country on Sunday. Elsewhere, there will be a minor risk of heat-related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week. - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country Tuesday-Saturday next week. Not much too talk about in the long-term period. High pressure over Mexico builds into the region promoting warmer temperatures and increased heat risk. Accompanied by a low-level jet that develops for much of the work week, resulting in breezy to windy conditions with southeasterly wind sustained around 15 knots gusting up to 20- 25 knots Tuesday through the end of the week. A mid-level disturbance moving across the Southern Plains midweek will result in increased rain chances across the region from Wednesday through the end of the work week. There`s a low 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the region particularly across the western Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. A Saharan dust plume moving into the Gulf from the Atlantic may result in hazy conditions for the second half of the week. This could impact visibilities and possibly increase the risk for respiratory issues. Expect temperatures across inland locales in the 90-100 degree range throughout much of the week getting up to around 105 across the Brush country towards the end of the work week. Generally a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts for the week with isolated areas of Extreme risk over portions of the Brush Country. Heat indices approaching and possibly exceeding 110 degrees across western portions of our CWA, especially towards the end of the week that may result in Heat Advisories being needed this upcoming week but with the NBM ensemble mean around 105 degrees will continue to monitor the trend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle with light winds. There is a medium chance for MVFR visibilities tomorrow night beginning at 06z at VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore flow is expected across the local waters today through Sunday. Low chances (15-20%) for rain are expected today with chances below 10% tonight into Sunday. Flow will be predominately Gentle to Moderate (BF 3-4) early Monday. Increasing to Moderate to at times a fresh breeze (BF 4-5) late Monday, persisting through the end of next week. There`s a 15-20% chance for showers today over the waters and low rain chances (15- 30% chance) are expected mid to late week, next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 75 92 75 / 20 0 10 0 Victoria 90 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 93 77 98 75 / 20 10 10 0 Alice 93 73 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 Rockport 89 77 90 78 / 20 0 10 0 Cotulla 93 76 100 75 / 20 10 10 0 Kingsville 91 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 87 78 88 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232711 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 628 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Troughing will continue over the Carolinas today as another cold front approaches. The front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore late next week, increasing moisture and rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 630 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Latest analysis shows low pressure over the Delmarva, with attendant sfc cold now offshore. Much of today will be dry, sunny and seasonable, as dewpoints continue to fall into the 50s. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. By late afternoon an upper level shortwave trough will drop down through VA and into NC, sparking convective chances. CAMs remain in good agreement showing sct showers and storms developing late this afternoon and early evening...likely beginning across the northern forecast area and pushing SSE into the evening. SPC continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for severe wx, with potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. While there will be plenty of shear in place (bulk shear greater than 50 kt), the lack of moisture (dewpoints in the 50s) and instability (ML CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg) may limit the overall svr threat. While models due show a surge of 700 mb RH, it may not arrive until after the best instability. This coupled with the fact that the best jet dynamics will remain mainly in southern VA add to the uncertainty of severe weather making it southward into Eastern NC. If there is some sustained growth, then the threat for hail increases as freezing levels are only about 10 kft. On the damaging wind side of things, DCAPE values are greatest in the afternoon, but again the limited moisture may inhibit development. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Isolated strong to svr thunderstorm risk will continue early this evening. Stacked low will continue to lift into the NE US and southern Quebec, while weak attendant cold front pushes through the region and troughing continues aloft. Scattered showers and storms likely to be ongoing early this evening, grad sinking SSE and offshore by late evening. Iso svr threat will continue for the first part of the evening. Convection likely ending by midnight, with drier air filtering in and low level NNW developing behind the front. Lows falling into the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s for the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 AM Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Sunday (6/1): Quiet start to the day, but a shortwave moving through the region brings chances of showers and tstorms Sunday into Sunday night. There is some model discrepancy on when the shortwave bringing convection rolls through. If it happens earlier in the day (like the 00Z HRRR), steeper low level lapse rates paired with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear could promote multicell to marginally supercellular storm modes with wind the primary concern, and hail secondary. SPC has a marginal (1/5) outlook for portions of the CWA Sunday to cover this threat. If the shortwave moves through after sunset, low level lapse rates will be less impressive, decreasing the overall severe threat. Monday (6/2) - Friday (6/6): Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Thursday highs are expected to be near 90 inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. Friday high pressure offshore will help funnel gulf moisture ahead of a trough moving through Saturday. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy WSW winds today, with gusts peaking 20-25 kt this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Some storms could be strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected Sunday. High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sat... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions will continue through this evening - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt with seas 4-8 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 3-6 ft north. A cold front will continue to push offshore this morning. W winds expected to diminish to 15-20 kt later this morning, increasing to 15-25 kt this afternoon and evening. Winds grad diminish after midnight tonight, becoming NNW early Sun morning. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rvrs through this evening and the first part of tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, a few could become strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232707 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 506 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air and near to below-normal temperatures are expected over the weekend, with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible this evening, mainly across northern and western areas. A cold front will bring another chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm mainly from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .UPDATE... Update to remove Small Craft Advisory from marine discussion and marine watch/warning line. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has pushed offshore this morning although the 5h trough axis will be slower to shift offshore. In fact the 5h trough axis becomes hard to find as the base of the trough flattens and a couple shortwaves move through the flow aloft. Surface high to west weakly builds in today, with more westerly flow vs the more typical northwest flow following a cold front. The northwest flow will arrive with a secondary cold that arrives very late tonight. Today`s post front airmass will be dry and breezy, but not really cooler. In fact highs will likely end up the same or possibly a degree or so warmer than Fri due to the much drier air and more abundant sunshine. Afternoon humidity is likely to dip under 40% along with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph as strong winds at the top of the mixed layer surface once some heating can get mixing going. The strongest shortwave moves across the area mid to late morning, setting up subsidence for much of the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a nice subsidence inversion in place for much of the afternoon as well as a deep layer of dry air aloft. As the post wave subsidence wanes, there will be a slight increase in PVA ahead of a much weaker shortwave expected late afternoon/evening. Guidance is split on potential with this wave. A lot of the reliable global models keep the area dry while the CAMs support some convection across the northern edges of the forecast area. The environment seems quite unfavorable for the development of anything more than a short-lived, low topped shower. It could be a case of the CAMs overdoing convection (as they has been the case recently) thus only carrying a slight chance pop for a few hours late in the day, but will not be shocked if nothing develops. Lows below normal tonight with the drier air mass and late surge of cooler air following a second cold front. Boundary layer winds will help keep temperatures warmer than what 850 temps around 10C would suggest. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday, a weak cold front/surface trough initially sent down by the aforementioned shortwave during the preceding night will stall, resulting in westerly low-level flow across the area. This boundary may drift back northward during the morning as its parent shortwave pivots away, but another shortwave will pivot down towards the area on Sunday, pushing the front offshore by early Monday morning. Enhanced low-level moisture (primarily around and below 700mb) over the Mid-South on the southwestern periphery of the broader eastern US trough is expected to translate east-southeastward across the southern Appalachians and combine with forcing provided by the trough and the surface cold front to yield scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the boundary. These should initiate upstream over the mountains and eventually reach the forecast area from late on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and relatively cool mid-level temperatures within the trough should yield at least weak instability with modest effective shear around 25-30 kts. SPC currently highlights northern and western portions of the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday, with a storm or two capable of producing severe wind gusts around 60mph and hail up to quarter size possible late in the afternoon as activity reaches the area before nocturnal cooling largely eliminates the already low severe threat. Otherwise, fast-moving showers should be the main story over Sunday evening and overnight, with winds turning northerly behind the front early Monday morning. Precip totals should generally average a tenth inch or less, but a couple stripes of higher amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range are possible where the heaviest rain occurs. As the trough axis swings through Monday afternoon, cold mid-level temps combined with surface heating may be enough to yield isolated pop-up showers, mainly along the sea breeze. Temperatures will hold near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid-upper troughing shifts eastward and is replaced by ridging during the first half of the week. This will result in increasing temperatures, especially after high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday. A curious feature that has recently shown up in the guidance is a shortwave trough diving out of the Plains and setting up shop around the Florida Peninsula early in the week. The interplay between this wave and ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will determine how soon unsettled weather returns to the forecast area, especially as another broad trough is expected to cross the CONUS and reach the East late in the week, with an attendant cold front bringing rain chances back into the picture by Friday. Until any unsettled weather returns, however, temperatures are expected to warm above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s during the latter half of the week while lows gradually rise through the 60s with each passing night as dew points creep up in return flow around the offshore high. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF period. Only weather issue will be gusty west-northwest winds starting around 14Z and lasting through the day as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Offshore flow in the wake of a cold front will continue into this afternoon before winds start backing to southwest ahead of another front. The second front arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sun with northwest to north winds developing by the end of the period. Short duration of enhanced southwest flow this afternoon/evening may build seas to 3-5 ft, but otherwise seas will be 2-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southwest wind wave and a southeast swell. Sunday through Wednesday... The flow will become variable on Sunday as a surface trough lifts back northward during the day, with southerly flow around 10 kts during the afternoon ahead of another cold front. This front will push through during the night with northerly winds arriving in its wake early on Monday. Surface high pressure west of the area will shift closer to the coast and eventually move offshore on Wednesday. Expect winds to gradually veer to easterly, then southeasterly as this draws closer, although speeds should remain around 10 kts or less through Wednesday. Seas largely hold in the 1-2 ft range in light of the generally weak flow regime. Southeasterly swells of 1-2 ft at 8-9 sec over the weekend will be replaced by 1-2 ft northeasterly to easterly swells with a period of 6 sec early in the week. South- southwesterly wind waves over the weekend will become less prominent during the week as the northeasterly swell takes over. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1232706 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 31.May.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 500 AM AST Sat May 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * An extensive and dense plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will affect the local islands from today into the middle of the upcoming workweek. This will result in hazy skies, limited coverage in shower activity, and warmer conditions. * An increase in surface winds will induce some moderate to locally fresh winds, resulting in wind-driven seas. Therefore, small craft operators should exercise caution. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday... A cloud deck present in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere contributed to variably cloudy skies overnight across the region. Additionally, the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) resulted in somewhat hazy conditions. Overnight low temperatures ranged from the mid-60s in the mountain regions to the mid-70s along the coastal areas. Doppler radar detected a few isolated showers developing along the windward sections of the islands, advected by an east- southeast wind flow, but localized land breeze effects were also noted. A mid-level ridge nearly stationary over the region will continue to support a trade wind inversion, effectively suppressing deep convective development across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This synoptic pattern, combined with the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL), will further dry out the atmosphere above 850 MB, limiting vertical moisture availability over the northeast Caribbean. Despite this drying trend, pockets of moisture embedded within the prevailing winds, associated with a wind surge, will bring occasional showers across portions of the islands, especially in the windward locations. As the wind surge progresses, residents can expect a noticeable increase in local winds throughout the weekend, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours. Afternoon convection will remain confined to the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico, driven by local sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating, but widespread thunderstorm activity is not anticipated due to the prevailing dry air and stable conditions. The SAL, expected to arrive later today and persist into early next week, with a peak around Monday, is likely to result in hazy skies, reduced visibility, and minimal rainfall. As SAL concentrations increase, nighttime radiational cooling will be limited, leading to warmer- than-average minimum temperatures each night and early morning hours across the islands. Therefore, we expect a warm to hot period in the coming days, with elevated heat indices and above-normal temperatures. The presence of Saharan dust will lead to hazy skies and reduced air quality across the region. Individuals with respiratory conditions, such as asthma or allergies, should limit outdoor activities and use protective measures as needed. Staying hydrated and avoiding strenuous outdoor exercise during peak heat hours is also recommended. .LONG TERM...Tuesday trough Saturday... The long-term forecast remains on track. According to the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model V5, a dense plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continue to affect the northeastern Caribbean through midweek. The model indicates that the highest concentrations are expected early in the period, with aerosol optical thickness values nearing 0.5. This pattern will result in hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and deteriorated air quality through at least Wednesday. Although the most intense dust presence is forecast for the first part of the week, low to moderate concentrations are expected to linger into the upcoming weekend. Residents and visitors, particularly those with respiratory conditions, are advised to take appropriate health precautions during this period. At the surface, a high-pressure system will promote southeasterly winds through Tuesday, gradually shifting from the east as the high moves into the central Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over the region during the early part of the week, favoring a drier and more stable environment aloft. Precipitable water values will remain below climatological normals, near or below 1.5 inches, limiting overall shower activity across the area. However, locally induced showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon across western Puerto Rico, due to diurnal heating and local effects. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit in coastal and urban areas, and in the low 80s across higher elevations. Heat indices may exceed 108F during the peak of the event, particularly across north-central Puerto Rico. These hot and dry conditions, combined with poor air quality, could pose additional health risks, especially for the more vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Mainly VFR conditions across the terminals. Any SHRA will be briefed, with minimal impact on operations for most terminals. Expect winds from the ESE to range at 15-20 kts after 31/13z, with higher gusts around 25 kt or more. However, they are expected to return to 10 kt or less overnight (after 31/22z). VCSH will develop near TJBQ during the afternoon hours, but we are not anticipating widespread activity. A SAL will bring hazy skies, but visibility will range around 6SM, especially from this afternoon onward. && .MARINE... A surface high-pressure system strengthening over the Atlantic Basin will continue to support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds during the next few days. Mariners should remain cautious, particularly across offshore Atlantic waters and the Caribbean passages, where choppy seas are expected. Each afternoon and evening, isolated thunderstorms may develop and impact the Mona Passage and western coastal waters of Puerto Rico due to localized convergence. By late today into the middle of next week, another significant surge of Saharan dust is forecast to reach the region, leading to hazy skies and reduced visibility. && .BEACH FORECAST... A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect for north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the island of Saint Croix. Elsewhere, the risk remains low. Nonetheless, swimmers are urged to use caution, especially near piers, reefs, and other structures where dangerous rip currents are more likely to form unexpectedly. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232705 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 359 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There is still a chance for some isolated showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms this morning along the coastal locations and Gulf waters. However, mostly tranquil conditions can be expected for later today into tonight as surface high pressure over northern and northeastern TX dominates the local weather pattern. High temperatures today will be mainly in the upper 80s and the lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and the lower 70s for the rest of the inland portions. A mid to upper level shortwave and associated cluster of showers and thunderstorms will make its way southward across eastern OK Saturday night into Sunday morning and eastern TX during the afternoon to evening hours. Hi-Res guidance suggest the cluster of showers and storms arriving the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region during the morning hours, but weaken quickly as they progress southward. Then, guidance show another round of showers and thunderstorms developing to our north and northwest, which would move then into Southeast TX later in the afternoon into the early night hours. There is still some uncertainty as to how strong these storms will be and how much of Southeast TX will be affected by them. This second batch of storms does look to be the stronger one out of the two, given that conditions in the afternoon to evening may become favorable for strong to severe storms, capable of producing strong winds and hail. However, as we have seen it happen in the past few days, we will need to see if the morning storms take all the "juice" out of the environment and not allow us to recover as much during the afternoon hours. At this time, I continued with slight chances for showers and storms for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the morning hours and increase PoPs and expand them further south as the afternoon progresses. I also kept slight chances in the evening to night hours in case some of these showers take a little longer to dissipate. That being said, there may be further changes to this forecast (maybe higher PoPs if needed) as models come into a better agreement on the strength and coverage of these storms. I will note here that SPC has placed a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for areas north of a line extending from northern Washington County to eastern Trinity County while the rest of Southeast TX has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on Sunday. Main threats are damaging winds and hail, but cannot rule out a brief/isolated tornado. Although some of these storms may carry heavy rainfall at times, we are currently not expecting significant flooding impacts with this activity. However, ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas are possible. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates and remember to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings. Cotto (24) && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There remains not a whole lot to say about the long term at this time beyond...yup, it`s early summer! A quick summary of the Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index reveals a whole lot of white across Southeast Texas, indicating very little potential for extreme events through next week. One small bit of 0.5-0.6 values near the coast emerges later next week, indicating an "extreme" event is possible is later next week for minimum temperatures. Basically from Monday night/Tuesday morning onward, I`ve got low temps at/above 80 degrees beginning to encroach on Galveston and other communities on the immediate coast (Anahuac, High Island, Surfside, etc). These increasing warm nights do not surprise me too overly much. We`ll have persistent onshore flow through this period, keeping a strong Gulf connection to keep dewpoints high at night, especially closer to the coast. High dewpoints will keep the temperature floor high, and given how compressed our temperature range can get in the summer, it doesn`t take a huge boost to the temperature floor to start having to consider the potential for record high min temps. Patches of 0.5+ EFI aren`t the strongest indicator of unusually hot nights ahead, but does signal it to be something to be on the watch for. One other thing we`ll have to be mindful of? A weak cold front will be approaching the region mid to late week next week. But man, this front looks so weak. (This is where you go "How weak is it?") It looks so weak, I doubt it makes it much past the Red River, much less anywhere close to Southeast Texas. But...it and the upper trough supporting it may get near enough to help enhance our typical diurnal showers and storms some. So I roll with some modestly higher PoPs (thinking like 30s or so rather than 15ish percent each day), at least north of the Houston metro for Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Largely VFR across the area throughout, though overnight there may be patches of either fog or low stratus to briefly take some spots to MVFR. Due to lack of confidence in impact to any particular terminal, only have a 4SM spot at foggy spot LBX, and keep all other sites VFR. Only other concern will be winds. Generally light and northerly to variable at the outset, becoming a bit stronger and more northeasterly (5+ kts) for much of the day. Tonight, winds become lighter again, and though variable due to being nearly calm, will likely become more southeasterly than anything else. && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to moderate north to northeast winds are expected in the front`s wake through this morning and early afternoon. Through the afternoon, winds will begin to veer, becoming south to southeast tonight. Onshore winds are expected to increase early next week, resulting in gradually building swell. As those winds gradually build, small craft may need to exercise caution on Tuesday and even a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on the coastal Gulf waters. Daily potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also exist. At the shore, persistent onshore winds next week could lead to strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches as well as minor rises in water levels during the upcoming week. At times of high tide, guidance suggests continued water levels around 2.5-3.0 feet above MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 87 69 93 72 / 0 0 20 20 Houston (IAH) 88 72 93 74 / 10 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 77 88 79 / 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232704 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 442 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore early this morning, while troughing continues over the Carolinas. Another front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore late next week, increasing moisture and rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Latest analysis shows low pressure over the Delmarva, with attendant sfc cold front moving through eastern NC. The cold front will continue to push offshore early this morning. Much of today will be dry, sunny and seasonable, as dewpoints continue to fall into the 50s. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. By late afternoon an upper level shortwave trough will drop down through VA and into NC, sparking convective chances. CAMs remain in good agreement showing sct showers and storms developing late this afternoon and early evening...likely beginning across the northern forecast area and pushing SSE into the evening. SPC continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for severe wx, with potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. While there will be plenty of shear in place (bulk shear greater than 50 kt), the lack of moisture (dewpoints in the 50s) and instability (ML CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg) may limit the overall svr threat. While models due show a surge of 700 mb RH, it may not arrive until after the best instability. This coupled with the fact that the best jet dynamics will remain mainly in southern VA add to the uncertainty of severe weather making it southward into Eastern NC. If there is some sustained growth, then the threat for hail increases as freezing levels are only about 10 kft. On the damaging wind side of things, DCAPE values are greatest in the afternoon, but again the limited moisture may inhibit development. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Isolated strong to svr thunderstorm risk will continue early this evening. Stacked low will continue to lift into the NE US and southern Quebec, while weak attendant cold front pushes through the region and troughing continues aloft. Scattered showers and storms likely to be ongoing early this evening, grad sinking SSE and offshore by late evening. Iso svr threat will continue for the first part of the evening. Convection likely ending by midnight, with drier air filtering in and low level NNW developing behind the front. Lows falling into the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s for the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 AM Saturday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Sunday (6/1): Quiet start to the day, but a shortwave moving through the region brings chances of showers and tstorms Sunday into Sunday night. There is some model discrepancy on when the shortwave bringing convection rolls through. If it happens earlier in the day (like the 00Z HRRR), steeper low level lapse rates paired with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear could promote multicell to marginally supercellular storm modes with wind the primary concern, and hail secondary. SPC has a marginal (1/5) outlook for portions of the CWA Sunday to cover this threat. If the shortwave moves through after sunset, low level lapse rates will be less impressive, decreasing the overall severe threat. Monday (6/2) - Friday (6/6): Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Thursday highs are expected to be near 90 inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. Friday high pressure offshore will help funnel gulf moisture ahead of a trough moving through Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 245 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sfc cold front will continue to push through the terminals this morning as drier air filters in with clouds pushing offshore. Breezy WSW winds today, with gusts peaking 20-25 kt this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Some storms could be strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected Sunday. High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 245 AM Sat... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions will continue through this evening - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt with seas 5-9 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 3-6 ft north. A cold front will move through the waters early this morning. W winds expected to diminish to 15-20 kt later this morning, increasing to 15-25 kt this afternoon and evening. Winds grad diminish after midnight tonight, becoming NNW early Sun morning. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rvrs through this evening and the first part of tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, a few could become strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232703 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 432 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The main story going forward will be the cold front that is currently draped across northern Florida. Out ahead of the front, GOES East Total Precipitable water (TPW) products PWAT values of 1.20 to 1.50 inches (10th and 25th percentiles, respectively) throughout the Florida Keys. Since it is still quite dry out there, KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity which we expect to continue through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mostly clear skies across the Keys with a few low level cumulus mainly across the Straits. In addition, there are also some high level cirrus clouds streaming from west to east. Temperatures along the Island Chain are a bit spread out this morning ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dew points are in the mid 70s. Also, we had some radiational cooling overnight where the Big Pine Key RAWS dipped down to 75 degrees before rising back to 80 degrees due to a slight increase in the winds from the southwest to west. The ridge over the Atlantic continues to break down as the cold front and upper level trough approach the area. This is resulting in marine platforms around the Keys observing southwest to west breezes of 5 to 10 knots and Island Chain communities observing near 5 mph. .FORECAST... Interesting pattern about to unfold for the next week. First, a cold front currently draped across northern Florida will continue to slowly seep south southeastward today. However, this front will not have much luck pressing too far to the south. The front is expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of the central to south Florida Peninsula for the duration of the weekend. As a result, slight chances (20%) of rain are in the forecast for late this afternoon through tonight. Moisture ticks up slightly higher for Sunday resulting in chances (40%) of rain. Due to the nature of the front remaining mostly north of the region, a good deal of the activity we expect to remain over the offshore Gulf waters east to southeast to the Upper Keys. That is not to say the remainder of the Island Chain won`t see any activity, its just the best chances are those aforementioned areas. Then, the potential event for Monday continues moving southeastward across the North Central Plains this morning. A strong upper level shortwave will continue diving southeastward across the Central U.S. and then to Florida by Sunday night. Model guidance has come into better agreement on the wetter regime unfolding for much of next week across the Keys. Guidance takes the aforementioned shortwave and phases its energy with the remnant frontal boundary vorticity. An upper level ridge building in to the north just off the North Carolina coastline will act to close off the previous shortwaves energy lending to a cutoff upper level low across the area for much of next week. This will low will mainly meander and slowly migrate to the west through the week. The result is continued unsettled weather resulting in an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across the board. Sunday night was increased from 50%-->60%, Monday 60%-->70%, Monday night and Tuesday increased to 60%, Tuesday night and Wednesday to 50% and Wednesday night through Friday to 40%. Inside of convective activity, expect heavy downpours, locally gusty winds, and lightning strikes. Also, temperatures may end up cooler than currently forecast where convection moves over, some places could fall into the low to mid 70s depending on the intensity of the activity. Towards the middle part of next week, a surface high pressure system is expected to move across the eastern U.S. and then into the western North Atlantic by late week leading to a return to the east to southeasterlies. However, we will remain moist as the this high will continue to advect in Atlantic moisture with an upper level low overhead which will help to instigate showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow, Sunday June 1st, begins the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. && .MARINE... Issued at 432 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a strengthening low pressure system continues moving northeastward into New England today. Its associated cold front will continue pressing southeastward stalling somewhere over the Central to South Florida Peninsula for most of the weekend. This will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes across our waters. Also, a generally wetter regime will result with an increase in coverage area of showers and thunderstorms through the early part of next week. Breezes will shift back to the east to southeast towards the middle of next week as a high pressure system moves across the Eastern U.S. and moves into the western North Atlantic by mid week. Moisture will remain keeping the unsettled pattern in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 432 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions expected through this morning and early afternoon. We are monitoring a decaying frontal boundary that will approach from the north. Confidence is low at this time if convection along this boundary will reach the island terminals. The window of opportunity would be after 21Z. That being said, will leave mentions of VCSH or VCTS for a future update. Otherwise, light westerlies winds will briefly back to the northwest in the afternoon, then possibly veer back southerly late this evening. && .CLIMATE... In 2018, Key West experienced its wettest May ever with 14.17" of rain recorded. Precipitation records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 82 87 79 / 20 20 30 60 Marathon 88 81 88 79 / 20 20 40 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232702 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 334 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Cold front has made it to the coast this morning and continue to slowly move offshore today. This has already started bringing some nice comfortable temps and dew pts to the northern half of the area and this should continue southward this morning. The front will get pushed back to at least the coast early Sunday and pivot between Venice and Lafayette sending the western part of the front well inland. Sunday should be another nice day, or at least most of it, before rain and storm chances increase once again. Model concensus has the area with light precip chances but we will bump these up a bit. An MCS will begin to develop late today from the short wave currently over the Dakotas. This feature will drop almost due south today through Sunday bringing most of the storms into TX and western LA by Sunday. We should see the complex of storms moving through eastern Colorado tonight. Some of the outflow from this may be able to spark some storms along the frontal boundary by late Sunday so we have bumped up numbers across the area for this. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A diurnal driven few days of sh/ts for the start of the new week then we should see another cold front moving SE by mid week approaching the area, but this one looks to stall before getting here. But it may be able to keep our rain chances in the normal range for summer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A cold front is currently moving offshore and most winds over the coastal waters have shifted to north at around 15kt. The front will stall over the northern gulf later this morning. Winds will become light and variable by late today. Light onshore flow will develop once again Sun and slowly rise to 10-15kt by mid week. A small window of very little storm activity will occur late this morning through a good portion of Sun, but outside that window, chances for strong or severe storms, although low, will remain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 86 67 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 ASD 86 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 86 71 88 73 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 86 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232701 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 31.May.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 324 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A frontal boundary is currently stalled over the CWA today, which will bring cooler temperatures, north-northeasterly winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to Deep South Texas today. Current NBM and CAM guidance has downtrended precipitation chances over previous guidance (down from around 40% to 20-30%), with some models hinting that the front could move south of the CWA into Mexico before it begins to lift out of the area overnight. If the front stays over Deep South Texas, precipitation is more likely to occur as the boundary will provide an area of convergence. However, if the stalled front pushes slightly south as some guidance suggests, this will decrease precipitation chances significantly because the area of convergence will be further to the south. While there is some uncertainty as to which scenario will occur, if precipitation does occur, the greatest chances appear to be closest to the coast, where sea breeze interactions may also provide a source of lift. Tonight, the front is expected to begin lifting out of the area, which will decrease precipitation chances to around 10 percent. Tomorrow, little-to-no precipitation is expected to occur over Deep South Texas as south-southeasterly flow and upper level ridging returns to the area. Temperatures are expected to be below normal today and warm closer to normal tomorrow. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 90s. Low temperatures are expected to get down into the mid 70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy today and tonight, clearing to partly cloudy tomorrow. Winds will be north- northeasterly today, and gradually veer to a southerly direction tonight, before backing southeasterly tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The subtropical ridge builds into early next week, cutting the rain chances and bringing back some heat into early June. A series of potent disturbances swing through the Plains, maintaining breezy southeasterly winds each afternoon along the lower Texas coast. POPs remain below 10 to 15 percent all week. Heat Risk gradually increases from minor to moderate early in the week and generally moderate by late week, with pockets of major heat risk along the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are currently being experienced at all airports. Due to incoming cloud cover from a stalled front, conditions could briefly slip to MVFR overnight (around 12-13z), particularly at BRO. Winds are expected to be light to moderate and will turn northeasterly throughout the night (by 14z). && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Today through Tomorrow...Marine conditions are expected to be favorable with light to moderate winds and calm seas with low wave heights. Winds will start out northeasterly today and gradually shift to a south-southeasterly direction tonight and tomorrow. Sunday Night through Friday...Low pressure in the Plains and high pressure across the Gulf will maintain breezy southeasterly winds through the forecast period. This will gradually build seas through the week and may approach Small Craft Caution conditions at times, especially on the bay each afternoon due to winds and offshore by late week, with occasionally elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 77 93 78 / 30 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 91 74 93 75 / 30 10 10 0 MCALLEN 93 77 96 78 / 30 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 86 79 / 20 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 90 77 / 20 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232700 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An upper level shortwave over the Southeast moves off, with a weak cold front south of the northern Gulf coast moving a bit further south tonight through Saturday before stalling. This front will provide the focus for convection developing over the Gulf through Saturday over open Gulf waters before it washes out. A surface ridge organizing over the northern Gulf coast late Sunday through Sunday night will begin to bring moisture back to the Lower Mississippi River and western portions of the Southeast, but not enough for precipitation to return the forecast area. The forecast area will see a cooling off today, with temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures see a small uptick for Sunday, topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. A mild night is expected Saturday night, with good radiational cooling from the dry airmass allowing temperatures to bottom out in the low 60s north of I-10, mid 60s to near 70 south. The small increase in moisture levels late Sunday through Sunday night will bring a small uptick in low temperatures, with 60-65 expected north of I-10, 65 to 72 south to the coast. A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Monday. /16 An upper trof over the East Coast states into the eastern Gulf on Monday moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday, with an upper ridge meanwhile building over the eastern states. Another upper trof over the western CONUS expands to encompass the western and central states, then spreads into the eastern states through Friday, with the upper ridge meanwhile dissipating. Yet another upper trof, this one in the easterlies, advances to mainly over the Florida peninsula by Tuesday, then continues slowly into the eastern Gulf through Friday. Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area Monday into Tuesday with the upper ridge building into the region, then slight chance to chance pops return by Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens and a southeasterly surface flow steadily brings improving deep layer moisture into the area. A surface low passing well off to the north brings a trailing cold front to near the forecast area by Friday, and will have chance pops on Thursday trending to chance to likely pops by Friday. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions with northerly winds around 10 knots are expected overnight into Saturday behind a cold front moving south over the Gulf. A seabreeze developing and moving inland in the afternoon will bring southerly winds around 10 knots to areas well south of Highway 84. Winds are expected to weaken Saturday night, becoming light area wide. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to moderate offshore flow will become more variable through the weekend. A surface ridge building west over the northern Gulf Coast beginning early in the week will bring a return of onshore flow to area waters by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 85 64 86 66 88 68 89 71 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 10 10 Pensacola 85 69 86 69 87 72 87 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 10 10 Destin 86 70 87 72 88 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 85 60 87 62 91 64 93 67 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 84 60 85 62 88 64 91 67 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 10 0 Camden 83 60 84 61 87 64 91 67 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 87 60 88 63 91 65 93 68 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232699 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front crosses the area this afternoon into this evening, bringing scattered showers and storms. A few showers are possible across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A Wind Advisory remains in effect across the Eastern Shore until 8 AM. Temps as of 320 AM ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area with morning lows in the mid-upper 50s inland and around 60F along the coast expected. Early morning surface analysis depicted a deepening area of low pressure across E MD with band of light rain pivoting around the low and into N portions of the FA. This rain should move E over the next several hours, likely moving offshore by around 6 AM. W winds have increased to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph across much of the area behind the cold front. However, the strongest winds are expected across the Eastern Shore early this morning with W winds increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45-50 mph. As such, a Wind Advisory remains in effect across the Lower MD and VA Eastern Shore until 8 AM. Winds remain breezy through the day averaging around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph through the afternoon across the entire CWA. Aloft, an anomalously strong trough continues to strengthen across the Eastern CONUS today. At the surface, an area of low pressure deepens as it tracks NE into New England later today. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front (associated with additional shortwave energy from the parent trough) moves across the area during the afternoon. This will allow for very cool temps aloft for late May, which therefore will allow for very steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates of ~7C (locally ~7.5C) are expected this afternoon. Even though dew points remain in the 50s this afternoon, the cool temps aloft will allow for SBCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg (locally around 1500 J/kg) across much of the area (500-1000 J/kg across the NW portions of the area). A strong gradient in 0-6km shear is expected today with a belt of ~60 kt of 0-6km shear extending from the OH Valley SE into NC. This will allow for 40-60 kt of 0-6km shear across the S/SW half of the area with weaker values of 20-30 kt across NE/N portions of the area. Given the steep lapse rates, high LCLs, and low freezing levels, a favorable setup for at least small hail is expected to develop. Scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon (potentially as early as around noon), moving SE with time. Given the favorable hail setup, stronger showers/storms are likely to have at least small hail with them. However, if a storm is able to become strong enough, severe hail is possible (potentially larger than quarters) given SHIP values >1. Additionally, the lapse rates only steepen towards the surface which will allow for strong winds to efficiently mix to the surface. As such, SPC has the entire area under a MARGINAL (level 1/5) risk for hail and wind today. Convection quickly tapers off by this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Highs today are expected to range from the mid 70s N to the upper 70s S under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight cool into the upper 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers or storms are possible across far SE VA and NE NC late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. - Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Aloft, a strong upper level trough remains in place across the East Coast through Mon. At the surface, a stationary front S of the local area Sun morning potentially lifts N into S portions of the FA Sun afternoon and evening before dropping back S Sun night. Cool high pressure builds in behind the front with mainly dry weather expected. Recent model trends have been for the stationary front to linger close enough to S portions of the FA that a few isolated showers/storms may develop across SE VA/NE NC Sun afternoon into Sun evening as another shortwave trough rounds the base of the longwave trough. However, confidence remains low that convection will make it as far N as the local area at this time PoPs of 15-30%. Will note that SPC has a marginal risk for a few isolated severe storms just to the S of the local area Sun. While severe weather is not expected over the local area Sun at this time, if the front trends N, this could change. Any showers/storms move offshore Sun night with dry weather returning. Temps remain below normal both Sun and Mon with highs in the mid-upper 70s (locally around 80F SE) both days and lows in the upper 40s NW to around 60F SE (most in the lower 50s) Sun night and low-mid 50s for most (upper 50s along the coast) Mon night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. - An unsettled pattern returns by Friday. Aloft, an upper level trough slides offshore Tue with a ridge moving into the East Coast from mid to late week. The EURO/EPS has trended towards the GFS/GEFS in showing a more progressive pattern as opposed to a cutoff low lingering near the coast early next week. As such, confidence has increased in a significant warmup beginning Tue and continuing through the remainder of the week. Highs increase from the mid 80s Tue to the upper 80s Wed and around 90F Thu and Fri. Dry weather is expected with this warmup through Thu night. Ensembles show signs of a trough approaching by Fri into the weekend, leading to an unsettled pattern developing. NBM PoPs increase to 30-40% Fri and 40-50% Sat for scattered, afternoon/evening showers and storms. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... Light to occasionally moderate rain remains possible across far N portions of the area through around 10z. The only terminal which may be impacted is SBY. However, confidence was too low to include prevailing rain for the TAF. Instead, went with VCSH. Cloud cover increases with this band of moisture pivoting around an area of low pressure to the N later tonight. As such, expect a period of BKN sky cover at RIC and SBY, potentially reaching PHF. However, CIGs remain VFR apart from a brief period of MVFR CIGs at SBY from 8-12z. Clouds clear early this morning with SCT CU (BKN CU at SBY) developing by late morning and continuing into through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop Saturday afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY. Confidence in exact timing and coverage remains too low at this time to go with prevailing TSRA in the TAFs. Instead have opted for VCTS and PROB30 for now. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through Sat afternoon. Will note that winds briefly diminish later tonight before increasing again Sat morning as diurnal heating develops. Additionally, SBY may see gusts up to ~30 kt between 8-12z early this morning. A wind advisory remains in effect for SBY and the Eastern Shore through 12z to account for the potential for a few gusts up to 40 kt. Otherwise, added LLWS at RIC through 9z. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few coastal showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... - Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters through 7 AM this morning. - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the rivers and Currituck Sound through 4 PM this afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, some of which could be strong to severe. A vigorous upper trough is pushing across the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning. At the surface, 991mb low pressure is centered over northern NJ, with the trailing cold front well offshore. A strong westerly wind of 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt has developed over the Ches. Bay and this should expand over the coastal waters early this morning. Seas are expected to build to 4-6ft, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Elsewhere, a W wind is primarily 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt. Gale Warnings remain in effect through 7 AM for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. A WSW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt persists through this aftn for the nearshore waters, primarily the rivers and Currituck Sound where SCAs have been extended through 4 PM. The wind will likely begin to relax a few hours earlier over the open waters, but a period of SCAs will be necessary for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters once the Gale Warnings end. Seas/waves subside to 3-4ft/2-3ft by this aftn. Additional showers/tstms are expected this aftn, and again, some could be strong to severe. The wind shifts to NW later this evening into the overnight hours as a secondary cold front crosses the coast. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the Ches. Bay, primarily N of New Point Comfort. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and into early next week, before settling offshore through the middle of next week. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... A strong westerly wind will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding along the Bay-side of the Eastern Shore during high tide early this morning. The primary corridor where minor flooding is forecast is from Saxis, VA to Bishops Head, MD. High tide at Saxis is 3:41AM EDT, high tide at Crisfield is 4:27AM EDT, and high tide at Bishops Head is 5:21AM EDT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099. Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>638. && $$ |
| #1232698 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 347 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep upper low across New England and eastern Canada. At the surface, the flow pattern will remain cyclonic around the deepening surface low moving across New England and the presence of a surface trough later in the day. Overall, the main story of the day will be a notably drier airmass and temperatures forecast to actually be slightly below normal for late May. Low-level westerly flow should allow us to out perform low- level thickness progs and the forecast advertises low to mid 80s across the area. Westerly winds will be a bit breezy, with frequent gusts up to around 20 mph from midday onward. Tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue with drier and cooler air in place. The forecast remains dry and lows are expected to drop into the low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over the East Coast in the morning, with an embedded Low north of New England. These features should hover in place through the day. Overnight, the Low lifts further north and weakens, while a weak shortwave rounds the base of the trough, approaching our area from the west late. At the surface, weak High pressure may be near the FL Panhandle in the morning and then in the vicinity of our area in the evening. Additionally, a dissipating cold front may move through our area late at night. PWATs ~1" in the morning should rise to ~1.25" as time progresses. These values are below normal. Hence, the deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But given the PWATs and model soundings, it might be hard to get any rainfall, so we kept the forecast dry. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows should range from the lower 60s far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Monday: A mid-level trough will stretch from New England down into the Southeast in the morning. A shortwave will round the base of this trough in the morning and afternoon, moving over our area. The trough axis should shift offshore in the evening and overnight, followed by ridging building in from the west. A surface cold front should be located just to our east and southeast in the morning, quickly moving away. Meanwhile, High pressure will be near the Middle Appalachians. The High will gradually move towards the Mid-Atlantic region as time progresses. PWATs will remain ~1.25, which is still below normal. The deterministic models start out dry, but then point towards isolated showers along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Given all of the models generally have this, we went with slight chance POPs. But the low PWATs and model soundings will make it hard for widespread convection to develop. Overnight will be dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. Lows will be around 60 degrees far inland to the upper 60s/lower 70s at or near the beaches. Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of a strong ridge building over the East Coast. At the surface, High pressure over the Mid-Alantic region in the morning will shift into the Atlantic late in the day. Models hint that PWATs initially ~1.25" may drop through the day. The deterministic models keep our area fairly dry, with hints of an isolated shower or two late in the day along the sea breeze. But the NBM keeps our area dry. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong mid-level ridging will prevail build over the Southeast U.S. through Thursday, then start moving offshore on Friday. High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail, ushering moisture into our area. This pattern will yield diurnal convection. Temperatures will rise to above normal by Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Northwest winds will peak this morning then diminish a bit into the afternoon as they turn more west or west- southwest. Other than a pre-dawn period where gusts up to 25 knots will be possible, speeds should top out in the 15-20 knot range. Overnight, winds are expected to be westerly and no higher than 15 knots. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period, with up to 4 feet at times in the outer waters.Saturday will see breezy west-northwesterly winds throughout the morning hours, turning southwesterly during the afternoon, with strongest winds expected along the South Carolina nearshore waters at up to 20 knots. While we currently do not have the winds reaching small craft advisory criteria on Saturday, mariners should check back before heading out as the forecast may favor stronger winds. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet are expected. Winds weaken overnight into Sunday as they become westerly. Extended Marine: Outside of potential diurnal convection, no Small Craft Advisories are expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ350. && $$ |
| #1232695 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 346 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air and near to below-normal temperatures are expected over the weekend, with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible this evening, mainly across northern and western areas. A cold front will bring another chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm mainly from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal by midweek with the next chance for rain late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has pushed offshore this morning although the 5h trough axis will be slower to shift offshore. In fact the 5h trough axis becomes hard to find as the base of the trough flattens and a couple shortwaves move through the flow aloft. Surface high to west weakly builds in today, with more westerly flow vs the more typical northwest flow following a cold front. The northwest flow will arrive with a secondary cold that arrives very late tonight. Today`s post front airmass will be dry and breezy, but not really cooler. In fact highs will likely end up the same or possibly a degree or so warmer than Fri due to the much drier air and more abundant sunshine. Afternoon humidity is likely to dip under 40% along with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph as strong winds at the top of the mixed layer surface once some heating can get mixing going. The strongest shortwave moves across the area mid to late morning, setting up subsidence for much of the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a nice subsidence inversion in place for much of the afternoon as well as a deep layer of dry air aloft. As the post wave subsidence wanes, there will be a slight increase in PVA ahead of a much weaker shortwave expected late afternoon/evening. Guidance is split on potential with this wave. A lot of the reliable global models keep the area dry while the CAMs support some convection across the northern edges of the forecast area. The environment seems quite unfavorable for the development of anything more than a short-lived, low topped shower. It could be a case of the CAMs overdoing convection (as they has been the case recently) thus only carrying a slight chance pop for a few hours late in the day, but will not be shocked if nothing develops. Lows below normal tonight with the drier air mass and late surge of cooler air following a second cold front. Boundary layer winds will help keep temperatures warmer than what 850 temps around 10C would suggest. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday, a weak cold front/surface trough initially sent down by the aforementioned shortwave during the preceding night will stall, resulting in westerly low-level flow across the area. This boundary may drift back northward during the morning as its parent shortwave pivots away, but another shortwave will pivot down towards the area on Sunday, pushing the front offshore by early Monday morning. Enhanced low-level moisture (primarily around and below 700mb) over the Mid-South on the southwestern periphery of the broader eastern US trough is expected to translate east-southeastward across the southern Appalachians and combine with forcing provided by the trough and the surface cold front to yield scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the boundary. These should initiate upstream over the mountains and eventually reach the forecast area from late on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and relatively cool mid-level temperatures within the trough should yield at least weak instability with modest effective shear around 25-30 kts. SPC currently highlights northern and western portions of the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday, with a storm or two capable of producing severe wind gusts around 60mph and hail up to quarter size possible late in the afternoon as activity reaches the area before nocturnal cooling largely eliminates the already low severe threat. Otherwise, fast-moving showers should be the main story over Sunday evening and overnight, with winds turning northerly behind the front early Monday morning. Precip totals should generally average a tenth inch or less, but a couple stripes of higher amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range are possible where the heaviest rain occurs. As the trough axis swings through Monday afternoon, cold mid-level temps combined with surface heating may be enough to yield isolated pop-up showers, mainly along the sea breeze. Temperatures will hold near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid-upper troughing shifts eastward and is replaced by ridging during the first half of the week. This will result in increasing temperatures, especially after high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday. A curious feature that has recently shown up in the guidance is a shortwave trough diving out of the Plains and setting up shop around the Florida Peninsula early in the week. The interplay between this wave and ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will determine how soon unsettled weather returns to the forecast area, especially as another broad trough is expected to cross the CONUS and reach the East late in the week, with an attendant cold front bringing rain chances back into the picture by Friday. Until any unsettled weather returns, however, temperatures are expected to warm above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s during the latter half of the week while lows gradually rise through the 60s with each passing night as dew points creep up in return flow around the offshore high. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF period. Only weather issue will be gusty west-northwest winds starting around 14Z and lasting through the day as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... SCA for NC waters continues based on latest buoy reports showing both winds and seas still flirting with SCA thresholds although they are trending down. End time of 0500 EDT still looks to be on track. Offshore flow in the wake of a cold front will continue into this afternoon before winds start backing to southwest ahead of another front. The second front arrives in the pre-dawn hours of Sun with northwest to north winds developing by the end of the period. Short duration of enhanced southwest flow this afternoon/evening may build seas to 3-5 ft, but otherwise seas will be 2-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southwest wind wave and a southeast swell. Sunday through Wednesday... The flow will become variable on Sunday as a surface trough lifts back northward during the day, with southerly flow around 10 kts during the afternoon ahead of another cold front. This front will push through during the night with northerly winds arriving in its wake early on Monday. Surface high pressure west of the area will shift closer to the coast and eventually move offshore on Wednesday. Expect winds to gradually veer to easterly, then southeasterly as this draws closer, although speeds should remain around 10 kts or less through Wednesday. Seas largely hold in the 1-2 ft range in light of the generally weak flow regime. Southeasterly swells of 1-2 ft at 8-9 sec over the weekend will be replaced by 1-2 ft northeasterly to easterly swells with a period of 6 sec early in the week. South- southwesterly wind waves over the weekend will become less prominent during the week as the northeasterly swell takes over. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #1232694 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate Risk for Heat-Related Impacts today and Sunday A mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into South Texas Saturday and hang around through the end of the weekend. Before this ridge slides into the region, a shortwave is expected to traverse across South Texas from the south tomorrow promoting low chances (20- 25%) for showers and thunderstorms. With increased subsidence and drier air Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected to close out the weekend. Therefore, the are of moderate risk for heat-related impacts will spread out to cover most of the Brush Country on Sunday. Elsewhere, there will be a minor risk of heat-related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week. - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country Tuesday-Saturday next week. Not much too talk about in the long-term period. High pressure over Mexico builds into the region promoting warmer temperatures and increased heat risk. Accompanied by a low-level jet that develops for much of the work week, resulting in breezy to windy conditions with southeasterly wind sustained around 15 knots gusting up to 20- 25 knots Tuesday through the end of the week. A mid-level disturbance moving across the Southern Plains midweek will result in increased rain chances across the region from Wednesday through the end of the work week. There`s a low 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the region particularly across the western Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. A Saharan dust plume moving into the Gulf from the Atlantic may result in hazy conditions for the second half of the week. This could impact visibilities and possibly increase the risk for respiratory issues. Expect temperatures across inland locales in the 90-100 degree range throughout much of the week getting up to around 105 across the Brush country towards the end of the work week. Generally a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts for the week with isolated areas of Extreme risk over portions of the Brush Country. Heat indices approaching and possibly exceeding 110 degrees across western portions of our CWA, especially towards the end of the week that may result in Heat Advisories being needed this upcoming week but with the NBM ensemble mean around 105 degrees will continue to monitor the trend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 We will remain generally rain free tonight, with the best chances (20-45%) for any precipitation over the Rio Grande Plains. Have included VCTS in the TAF for LRD tonight. There is a low (30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, so have included PROB30s for the western terminals from 09Z-13Z and the eastern terminals from 17Z-24Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with a low to medium chance of MVFR conditions for ALI and VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore flow is expected across the local waters today through Sunday. Low chances (15-20%) for rain are expected today with chances below 10% tonight into Sunday. Flow will be predominately Gentle to Moderate (BF 3-4) early Monday. Increasing to Moderate to at times a fresh breeze (BF 4-5) late Monday, persisting through the end of next week. There`s a 15-20% chance for showers today over the waters and low rain chances (15- 30% chance) are expected mid to late week, next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 75 92 75 / 20 0 10 0 Victoria 90 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 93 77 98 75 / 20 10 10 0 Alice 93 73 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 Rockport 89 77 90 78 / 20 0 10 0 Cotulla 93 76 100 75 / 20 10 10 0 Kingsville 91 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 87 78 88 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232693 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 - Broken band of showers and lightning storms (60-70% coverage) will push across the I-4 corridor early this morning, Brevard and Osceola thru mid-morning, and Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late morning-early afternoon, all ahead of a late season "cool" front. Today carries a Marginal Risk (beginning north and ending south) of marginally severe wind gusts (60+ mph), small hail, and brief urban flooding from stronger storms. - The front stalls over south Florida by Sunday, limiting rain and storm chances mainly to the Treasure Coast and southern Space Coast to close out the weekend. - Seasonably warm to hot conditions persist into next week, with a brief drop in humidity across the I-4 corridor late this weekend as drier air filters in briefly behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Current-tonight...Weak "cool" frontal boundary dropping southward across north FL early this morning. Out ahead of this feature, a broken band of showers and embedded lightning storms is moving east/southeast across north-central FL. The convection will continue to press southward arriving across the I-4 corridor ahead of sunrise, into Osceola/Brevard counties ahead of/thru mid- morning, finally Okeechobee County & the Treasure Coast late morning/early afternoon. Mid-level energy will aid this system as it passes south. Most probable impacts include lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-55 mph locally - few gusts to around 60 mph in play, torrential downpours, and perhaps some small hail. The strong to marginally severe storm threat will end, from north to south, as the storms through. Any one location may experience 1-2 hrs (max) of storm activity, though lighter debris rain could last a bit longer. With mainly cloud conditions, skies will gradually improve thru late afternoon/early evening (north-south). Clouds/precip will limit high temps, though it will remain humid. Max temps forecast in the M80s with a few U80s sprinkled in. Outside of showers and storms, expect mainly SW/W/WNW winds 8-15 mph (highest along the Space/Treasure coasts). The front does not make a clean passage southward and becomes quasi-stationary near Lake Okee. With ample moisture south of Orlando, energy aloft and proximity to front - expect some renewed convection tonight (esp late) generally south Brevard-Osceola southward. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible late tonight into early Sun morning. Conditions humid, again, tonight with lows well into the 60s to L70s. SW/W winds light this evening and overnight. Sun-Sun Night...The pattern remains unsettled with the front aligned east-west across the Lake Okee region early in the period. We continue with some "troughiness" aloft and deep moisture, with PWATs around 2 inches south-central FL. While we do advertise PoPs (20-30pct) across the I-4 corridor, greatest precip chances extend southward (60-80pct) toward Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. The moisture/precip gradient will remain rather tight. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible here - esp early. Main storm impacts continue to be gusty winds, lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and small to coin-size hail. The pressure gradient remains rather weak so we will see some variation in wind component, but generally SSW/SW outside of convection. Winds could back more S/SE toward the coast. Max temps return to U80s to potentially a few L90s. Lows continue near seasonal with conditions muggy. Mon-Mon Night...A vigorous mid-level trough is forecast to pass across the FL peninsula on Mon. Temps at 500mb will average -9C to - 11C and moisture return northward could be key to another active day for esp afternoon-evening lightning storms. For now have 30-50pct across the I-4 corridor and 50-80pct south thru Martin County - where moisture is deepest. Sea/lake breeze, convective boundary interactions will all play a role as well. WRLY steering flow still favors late day convection across the eastern peninsula. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible esp our southern coverage warning area. Activity will wind down and push off the coast during the evening. Even with considerable cloudiness forecast, afternoon temps will recover into the U80s and perhaps a few L90s if enough sunshine can occur. Overnight lows remain consistent. Tue-Fri...As mid/upper level troughing pushes off/away from the Eastern Seaboard, shortwave ridging builds across the Gulf Coast States, southeast U.S., and north FL. At the surface, high pressure centered over the mid Atlc States builds into the western Atlc with associated ridge axis gradually building back across north FL. Deepening moisture gradually builds back into the area. Mainly SCT afternoon/evening convection forecast each day. Storm steering becomes light and somewhat variable into mid-week. E/SE winds will be common during the day with speeds 5-10 mph and higher along the coast, with the ECSB developing and pushing inland. Seasonably warm temperatures prevail through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Today-Wed...A weak late-season "cool" front slides southward and becomes quasi-stationary today across the southern waters. This boundary will be preceded by a broken band of showers/embedded lightning storms that will move into the Volusia waters ahead of sunrise, Brevard waters thru mid-morning, and Treasure Coast waters late morning-early afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Primary impacts will be cloud-to- water lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong wind gusts, torrential downpours, and small hail. The front is forecast to gradually dissipate early next week as high pressure builds over the Southeast U.S. SW/W winds slacken later this afternoon into Sun, slowly turning from W to S at around 10 kts. Early next week winds become onshore (E/SE). Initial seas 2-4 ft this morning into early afternoon subside to 1-2 ft Sun night thru early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 MCO IMPACTS: - Band of lightning storms expected around Greater Orlando between 31/11-31/13Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR within the storms. - 20-30% chance of wind gusts 35+ KT. A late-season cold front slips down the peninsula today, sparking bands of showers and storms that should sweep southeast over all terminals. Timing: Greater Orlando in the 10-13Z timeframe before reaching the Treasure Coast terminals 14-17Z. Lightning, wind gusts 35+ KT, and temporary VIS and CIG restrictions are the primary aviation hazards from this activity. The band of storms shifts to our south late in the afternoon, and there is low confidence in convective redevelopment after 20Z so we have left it out of the TAF at this time. Additional showers/storms redeveloping over southern terminals just beyond TAF period. SW winds become westerly 6-12 KT today outside of convection. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Post-frontal (drier) conditions on Sun will drive min aftn RH values to 35-40pct north/west of I-4. Otherwise, scattered (occasionally numerous) coverage of lightning storms remain in the forecast into early next week. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. For today, an early start as a pre-frontal band of showers/embedded storms drop south to the I-4 corridor thru sunrise, slowly pushing south thru the remainder of the morning and early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 67 88 69 / 40 0 10 20 MCO 85 71 88 72 / 60 10 30 30 MLB 85 71 87 72 / 70 30 40 40 VRB 86 70 87 70 / 70 40 60 50 LEE 85 69 89 71 / 40 0 10 20 SFB 86 69 90 71 / 60 10 20 20 ORL 85 71 90 72 / 60 10 30 30 FPR 87 69 87 70 / 70 50 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232692 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 31.May.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Early morning IR satellite and radar imagery is showing a band of moisture and developing thunderstorms sprawled across northern Florida associated with an incoming decaying cold front. This storm system will progress south through the forecast area today, with numerous showers and storms. Despite only modest shear being present, cooler temperatures moving in aloft will increase lapse rates and allow for a few strong or damaging storms to be possible with the convection today. As the front dissipates across the Florida Peninsula, drier and slightly cooler air will fill into the northern half of the forecast area by Sunday. However, deeper moisture will linger over southwest Florida and the adjacent Gulf waters Sunday through early next week, leading to scattered to numerous storms each day from around the Tampa Bay south. Surface high pressure will setup north of Florida by Tuesday and hold through the rest of the week, favoring easterly flow. This pattern will result in storms building towards the west coast of Florida late in the afternoon and evening each day. While the highest rain chances will remain over southwest Florida, moisture (and rain chances) will gradually spread back northward during the middle and later half of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Conditions will deteriorate from north to south this morning as bands of showers push through the region ahead of a cold front. Storms will bring periods of low visibility and reduced ceilings and gusty winds. Drier air will fill in behind the system during the afternoon, bringing a return to VFR conditions that should hold through the rest of the afternoon and evening. After midnight, another round of showers is expected to shift onshore from the Gulf early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Areas of showers and storms will continue to move south through the waters today ahead of a weak cold front. Generally west and northwest flow will run less than 15 knots, although locally higher and variable winds are expected in the vicinity of the strongest storms. The front will dissipate by tonight, with lingering moisture from around the Tampa Bay south fueling continued rain chances Sunday through early next week. High pressure will setup north of Florida by Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to east and southeast flow, turning onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 No humidity concerns. Showers and storms will push south through the area today ahead of a decaying cold front, with a few strong storms possible. Drier conditions will fill in behind the front, but lingering moisture will hold over southwest Florida and allow for more showers to shift onshore early Sunday morning and continue to build inland through the afternoon. High dispersion indices will be possible both afternoons this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 76 89 77 / 80 20 30 40 FMY 89 75 89 75 / 80 70 70 60 GIF 85 72 89 72 / 70 20 40 40 SRQ 86 75 88 75 / 90 50 40 60 BKV 86 66 90 67 / 70 10 20 30 SPG 84 77 86 77 / 80 30 30 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1232690 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 31.May.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 315 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The cold front will be completing its passage through the CWA coastal regions this morning. Lower dewpoints will be noticeable behind the front, leading to more comfortable relative humidity values through the day. PoPs over land will be nil this afternoon with clear skies. Temperatures this afternoon will still be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s but with a light northwest breeze around 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue on Sunday in the wake of Friday`s cold front with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming and moistening trend will get underway and lead to a steady creep of temperatures rising a few degrees each day into midweek. A shortwave dropping southeastward out of the MS River Valley on Sunday could lead to a few showers and storms to the north and west, but overall moisture for our area should be too low to support convection. Warming and moistening is expected over the area through midweek, although mid-level ridging should keep PoPs low to none until it begins to break down later in the week. As the ridge breaks down, an inverted trough approaching from the southeast will help daily showers and thunderstorms to blossom over the area once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 There remains a few lingering showers and thunderstorms along the coast that may produce distant lightning around the ECP and TLH terminals at the start of this TAF period. The cold front is making its way through the CWA now, and behind the front, clear skies and light northwesterly winds will prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 West winds will continue to shift north/northwest this morning in the wake of a cold front, approaching exercise caution levels. Winds will diminish through the weekend into next week as high pressure builds over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Dry weather returns today following the cold frontal passage. Behind the front, noticeably lower dew points will cause relative humidity values to plummet to the low 30s, however will remain above critical levels. High mixing heights with light to modest transport winds will lead to high dispersions each afternoon (most widespread on Saturday), but otherwise no other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Although recent rainfall has caused a couple of locations to rise into action stage, dry conditions are expected for the next several days and no flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 84 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 63 90 66 / 10 0 0 10 Apalachicola 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232689 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 31.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 313 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... ...MORNING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA, THEN DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A pre-frontal band of broken showers and storms will continue to press southward early this morning across our north-central FL zones where isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible through daybreak, especially along and south of a GNV to SGJ line. Drier and relatively `cooler` air will filter across SE GA early this morning trailing the morning cold front passage. Prevailing dry conditions are expected across all zones by late morning, with only a low 20% chance of an afternoon shower across Marion- Putnam- Flagler counties where surface convergence peaks near the surface trough and low level river/lake/sea breeze convergence. Dry conditions continue tonight with weak trough across the local area. Could have some shallow ground fog across portions of north- central FL toward sunrise. High temperatures are still on track to `cool` back toward near average values today trailing the frontal passage with max temps in the mid/upper 80s. For JAX, this will be the first day since May 14th we expect highs in the 80s. May 2025 will likely go down as the warmest May on record for JAX. Mild low temperatures tonight will trend a little below average with drier air in place with lows near 60 inland to mid/upper 60s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Surface cold front remains settled just south of the area on Sunday in addition to plenty of drier air at both the low levels and aloft, resulting in a dry and seasonably warm end to the weekend with dew points/humidity generally lower than normal, especially away from the coast. WEak ridging and therefore light low level flow will also allow the sea breeze to form and penetrate at least about 20 to 30 miles inland. The vast majority of the CWA, if not the entire CWA, will likely remain dry and void of any convection Sunday. However, cannot fully rule out an isolated shower or perhaps a rumble or two of thunder over Flagler/Putnam/Marion County Sunday Afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland - though chances are around 10 percent or less at this time. Otherwise, just some diurnal clouds with seasonable temps in the upper 80s north and at the coast and low 90s elsewhere. Just some mid and high clouds Sunday Night with lows ranging from the 60s inland to low 70s closer to the coast and St. Johns River. A shortwave impulse and dry front approaches and moves across the region throughout the day Monday and into Monday Night. This will reinforce surface high pressure across the area for the start of the work week, while also shifting flow direction from a continental direction Sunday to an onshore direction by Monday. The subsidence will be battling it out with the onshore flow and slight upward trend in low level moisture/PWATs, with the end result being similar to slightly higher chances for showers and t`storms, especially over similar areas to Sunday. Temperatures "average out" to similar numbers compared to Sunday, with mainly lower 90s and upper 80s near the coast. Mostly clear skies expected Monday Night with lows once again similar to Sunday Night: 60s inland and low to mid 70s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure moves off into the Atlantic Tuesday and into mid week, persisting more of an onshore flow regime and gradually increasing layer moisture during the process. Long term guidance is coming into better agreement with respect to an upper low/TUTT low forming east of the Florida Peninsula around the Tuesday Night and Wednesday time frame, likely drifting across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf through late week. This, combined with the onshore flow, will continue to increase layer moisture and therefore chances for diurnal convection into late next week. Temperatures trend near or perhaps even slightly below average closer to the coast with the breezy onshore flow to start to the long term period, with this trend become more near to slightly above average by mid to late week as high pressure moves north and east further into the Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Morning showers and storms will press across NE FL terminals with brief restrictions. VFR conditions develop training convection this morning with decreasing mid and low clouds from north to south through the day. WNW winds 7-11 kts today with occasional gusts 15-18 kts by early afternoon. Winds become light and variable after sunset with patchy inland fog potential after 06z Sunday morning, greater chances at GNV and VQQ. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Thunderstorms will impact the Florida coastal waters early this morning ahead of a cold front. Breezy NW winds 15 to 20 kts early this morning continue the Small Craft Exercise Caution headline, with improving conditions after daybreak as winds back W 5 to 10 knots into the afternoon. Dry conditions develop by afternoon. A second front will move across the local waters tonight but thunderstorms are not expected. A front lingers over the region Monday as high pressure builds north of the region. The high builds northeast Tuesday and Wednesday with a coastal trough over the local waters and increasing daily shower and thunderstorm potential. RIP CURRENTS: Low risk today for SE GA and NE FL beaches with offshore flow. Low risk continues for SE GA beaches Sunday with a moderate risk for NE FL beaches as SE winds develop into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 87 69 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 88 63 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 87 67 90 70 / 20 0 0 10 GNV 87 63 92 67 / 20 0 0 10 OCF 88 64 91 67 / 40 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232688 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 301 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore early this morning, while troughing continues over the Carolinas. Another front will push through late tonight, with high pressure building in from the west through early next week with seasonable and drier conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Latest analysis shows low pressure over the Delmarva, with attendant sfc cold front moving through eastern NC. The cold front will continue to push offshore early this morning. Much of today will be dry, sunny and seasonable, as dewpoints continue to fall into the 50s. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. By late afternoon an upper level shortwave trough will drop down through VA and into NC, sparking convective chances. CAMs remain in good agreement showing sct showers and storms developing late this afternoon and early evening...likely beginning across the northern forecast area and pushing SSE into the evening. SPC continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for severe wx, with potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. While there will be plenty of shear in place (bulk shear greater than 50 kt), the lack of moisture (dewpoints in the 50s) and instability (ML CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg) may limit the overall svr threat. While models due show a surge of 700 mb RH, it may not arrive until after the best instability. This coupled with the fact that the best jet dynamics will remain mainly in southern VA add to the uncertainty of severe weather making it southward into Eastern NC. If there is some sustained growth, then the threat for hail increases as freezing levels are only about 10 kft. On the damaging wind side of things, DCAPE values are greatest in the afternoon, but again the limited moisture may inhibit development. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM Sat... Key Messages: - Isolated strong to svr thunderstorm risk will continue early this evening. Stacked low will continue to lift into the NE US and southern Quebec, while weak attendant cold front pushes through the region and troughing continues aloft. Scattered showers and storms likely to be ongoing early this evening, grad sinking SSE and offshore by late evening. Iso svr threat will continue for the first part of the evening. Convection likely ending by midnight, with drier air filtering in and low level NNW developing behind the front. Lows falling into the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s for the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Friday... Key Messages: - Dry, warming trend next week with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. Sunday (6/1): Quiet start to the day, but a shortwave moving through the region brings slight chances of showers late Sunday into early Monday. Poor mid level lapse rates and CAPEs keep thunder chances lower Sunday. Monday (6/2) - Friday (6/6): Dry high pressure builds in to the region to start the work week as ridging portion of an omega block shifts over the eastern seaboard. Temps will be increasing within the area of ridging, with each day warmer than the previous. By Wednesday highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s inland as the high begins to shift offshore. Thursday a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region, although high to our east may shield us from precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 245 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sfc cold front will continue to push through the terminals this morning as drier air filters in with clouds pushing offshore. Breezy WSW winds today, with gusts peaking 20-25 kt this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Some storms could be strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 4 PM Friday...Generally VFR returns for the weekend. High pressure overhead Monday-Wednesday will bring generally clear skies and light to calm winds each night. This could result in overnight into early morning fog or low stratus concerns for the first half of next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 245 AM Sat... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft conditions will continue through this evening - A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt gusting 25-30 kt with seas 5-9 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 3-6 ft north. A cold front will move through the waters early this morning. W winds expected to diminish to 15-20 kt later this morning, increasing to 15-25 kt this afternoon and evening. Winds grad diminish after midnight tonight, becoming NNW early Sun morning. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, sounds and Neuse/Bay Rvrs through this evening and the first part of tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening, a few could become strong to svr with gusty winds and hail. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 4 PM Fri...Winds and seas decrease for Sunday into next week as high pressure system builds into the region. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1232687 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 232 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring a round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through this morning. A period of drier weather is expected late morning into the afternoon before another round of scattered showers arrives later today into tonight, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible too. Drier weather follows Sunday into much of next week, except Thursday and/or Friday, with the risk for scattered showers & thunderstorms. A warming trend is likely too, with highs in the 80s mid to late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Showers and thunderstorms continue into this morning. Locally heavy rainfall and some street flooding possible, especially western MA/CT. * Drying out late morning into the afternoon, especially east, but a few late day showers/t-storms are possible. We`re in the thick of the much advertised period of widespread rain showers with some elevated thunderstorms associated with an anomolous mid level trough which is currently digging into New England. Mesoscale analysis and WV satellite imagery show the center of the vertically stacked low directly over the Mid Atlantic where the heaviest rainfall currently is falling. As this low lifts directly over SNE the heaviest and steadiest bands of precipitation will fall to the NW of the low, over western MA and CT. This is where the most rainfall is expected by the time all is said and done Saturday evening. We continue to expect generally 1 to 2 inches of rain, but with locally higher amounts as high resolution guidance indicates the potential for as much as 3 to 4 inches; at this time those highest amounts are more likely just to the west of our region. Regardless, some localized street flooding is possible, especially under any training cells or convection. Instability is marginal (up to 500-850 mb) and elevated so not expecting any severe weather, but rather garden variety thunderstorms embedded in showers, especially between 8 am and 2 pm. A dry slot eventually moves over eastern MA/RI bringing an end to widespread rainfall by mid to late morning. Rain likely continues most of the day further west. Then, some additional moisture is pulled in on the back side in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave rounds the base of the trough. This may kick off another round of less widespread showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two, generally along and northwest of the I-95 corridor. Instability is more limited with this round (dependent on how many breaks of sun we get) and the shear environment is unfavorable, so severe weather is not expected. Showers come to an end by 10 pm with drier westerly flow bringing a good amount of clearing. Cold advection in the low/mid levels will support lows in the upper 40s (warmer along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry Sunday, but cooler than normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Dry on Sunday under westerly flow under slowly rising heights. The upper trough remains overhead with a cold pool aloft and this together with lingering low/mid level moisture will lead to a good amount of diurnal cloud cover. Given the colder air aloft, highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Mainly dry week ahead, a cold front late in the week brings the next chance for appreciable rainfall. * Warming trend this week, Wednesday and Thursday will be summery with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. Fairly quiet weather on Monday, will have a mixture of clouds as the region is under cyclonic flow. 850mb temperatures begin to increase, from +3C Sunday to +7C Monday, resulting in warmer temperatures for Monday afternoon. Highs are in the upper 60s near the coast to the lower 70s inland. Monday evening into Tuesday a shortwave pivots about the departing system, do not expect any precipitation as PWATs fall to less than 1/2". Mid-level trough moves off shore Tuesday with rising heights as the ridge shifts into New England. Dry and warming conditions Tuesday to Thursday, the one potential issue would be if the ridge pinches off the departing trough and results in weaker cut-off low east of the region. Only a few members show this, thus think the warm and dry conditions will prevail. 850mb temperatures Tuesday increase towards +8C and +10C, but really increase for Wednesday and Thursday as those temperatures are +15C to +18C. Should have highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast, near the coast those temperatures are in the lower 70s. Wednesday and Thursday it will be summer like with highs well into the 80s. Looking for relief the south coast will likely be a bit cooler in the upper 70s due to the SSW flow. And with this flow, will have increasing due points into the low 60s, so will feel muggy as well. As for nighttime relief, doesn`t appear to be much with lows Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday night in the low to middle 60s. Our next chance for rain would come late in the week, late Thursday or perhaps Friday as a cold front moves in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR cigs with areas of fog near the south coast. Widespread showers and sct t-storms will continue, then lift to the north after 15z. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon after wind shift to W. Gusts to 25-30 kt developing during the afternoon, locally higher over the Cape and islands, especially Nantucket. A few late day showers or a t-storm possible. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts in the afternoon, locally higher to 30 kts over the Cape and Islands. BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in vsby potential and timing. BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in exact timing and specific details. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... Winds becoming SW 12-18z today followed by gusts to 25-35 kt developing, higher to 40 kts possible over southern waters. Seas building to 8-10 ft over southern waters as well. SCA in effect for all waters. Showers and sct t-storms moving over the waters this morning with poor vsbys in fog, with some improvement developing during the afternoon. Saturday night...High Confidence. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Seas 6-10 ft. Sunday...High Confidence. W winds 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts. Seas 4-7 ft. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-231-236-251. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. && $$ |
| #1232686 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 31.May.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 138 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front will slowly track southeast across the area Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be located along and ahead of the front. Strong to possibly severe storms will be possible as it passes through. The front is expected to be located over north central FL by sunrise. Most of the precipitation should clear the area with the front, but a few may linger behind due to weak troughing behind main front. Noticeably drier air will advect south across SE GA overnight behind the front. Due to the timing of the front and drier air moving in, there will be a broad range in temperatures Tonight. Lows in the lower to mid 60s will be common over SE GA, with upper 60s to lower 70s across NE FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday Night through Monday night) Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 High pressure begins to dominate across the area as the frontal boundary stalls south of north central FL. Drier air will continue to filter into the area, bringing chances of precipitation to near nil through Sunday night. The short-lived `cooler` air across the area on Saturday will make way for highs once again reach in the lower 90s across the area with only northern SE GA and coastal locations remaining in the upper 80s. Overall, a nice day is expected on Sunday as dewpoints will dip into the 50s and 60s with sunny and partly cloudy skies. By the evening on Sunday, temps cool to the mid 60s over inland locations and the lower 70s along the coast. Come Monday, high pressure will remain situated over the area. Currently expected only a small chance of precipitation over the southern portions of north central FL as onshore flow will bring in some moisture into inland locations. Daytime highs will once again be in the lower 90s with spots of upper 80s along the coast and northern SE GA. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 The high pressure over the SE CONUS will begin to shift off towards the Atlantic beginning on Tuesday through midweek. This will lead to an easterly flow to develop which will allow for moisture from the Atlantic to filter across inland locations. This influx of moisture will see the chance for precipitation to increase to the around the 20% range during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday mainly across NE FL. By Friday, precipitation chances build to 30% as moisture continues to be brought in from the Atlantic. Daytime highs this upcoming week will look to remain in the 90s, with the second half of the week potentially reaching into the mid 90s for inland locations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Morning showers and storms will press across NE FL terminals with brief restrictions. VFR conditions develop training convection this morning with decreasing mid and low clouds from north to south through the day. WNW winds 7-11 kts today with occasional gusts 15-18 kts by early afternoon. Winds become light and variable after sunset with patchy inland fog potential after 06z Sunday morning, greater chances at GNV and VQQ. && .MARINE... Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 West to southwest winds gradually increase this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cool front. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across our local waters during the evening hours, with activity continuing overnight as the front crosses our local waters. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected. West to northwest winds briefly increase to Caution levels tonight with the frontal passage. A drier airmass and a weaker pressure pattern prevail this weekend into early next week allowing for a return of a sea breeze dominant weather pattern. Rip Currents: Low to Marginal Moderate Risk of Rips through the weekend as offshore flow will be punctuated by a daily weak sea breeze development along the Atlantic Coast which will keep surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 Scattered to numerous storms this evening as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Drier air will begin to filter into the area on Saturday as min RHs dip into the 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Showers and storms chances begin to diminish during the upcoming weekend with the drier air filtering into the region. Behind the front westerly to southwesterly flow on Saturday will bring areas of high dispersions for portions of southeast Georgia and northeast FL, with areas of high dispersions over northeast Florida on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 87 70 87 72 / 10 0 0 10 JAX 90 65 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 88 68 90 71 / 10 0 0 10 GNV 89 64 92 66 / 10 0 0 10 OCF 89 65 91 66 / 40 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1232685 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 31.May.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front moves offshore early Saturday morning. A secondary cold front crosses the area Saturday afternoon, bringing additional scattered showers and storms. High pressure builds into the area early next week, allowing for dry weather to return. A warmup is expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Gusty westerly winds are expected across the lower Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore early Saturday morning as a strong low pressure system passes to the north. Showers have tapered off except across far N portions of the FA. As low pressure rides eastward to our north (along the Mason Dixon Line), a band of light to moderate rain will pivot around the low, impacting N portions of the FA over the next several hours. Otherwise, areas farther south should remain dry through the rest of the night. We will also be able to maintain a decent westerly wind overnight (10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph) as the drier air arrives and we get good mixing post- frontal. Winds should actually become quite gusty for a few hours on the Eastern Shore, and thus a wind advisory remains in effect from 2-8 AM for westerly winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Morning lows in the mid to upper 50s are expected (around 60F along the coast). && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday afternoon, posing the risk for hail and strong winds. - Dry weather returns Saturday night into Sunday. For Saturday, the shortwaves phase into an anomalously strong trough across the Eastern CONUS. At the surface, low pressure deepens as it tracks NE into New England. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front (associated with additional shortwave energy from the parent trough) moves across the area during the afternoon. This will allow for very cool temps aloft for late May, which therefore will allow for very steep lapse rates. Mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C are expected with the steepest lapse rates across the SW half of the area. Even though dew points remain generally in the mid-upper 50s Sat afternoon, the cool temps aloft will allow for MLCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg across much of the area (500-1000 J/kg across the NE half of the area). 0-6km WNW shear increases during the afternoon, ranging from ~30 knots north to 40 to 50 knots further south. Given the steep lapse rates, high LCLs, and low freezing levels, a favorable setup for at least small hail is expected to develop. Scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon (potentially as early as around noon), moving SE with time. Given the favorable hail setup, any stronger shower/storms is likely to have at least small hail. However, if a storm is able to become strong enough, large hail is possible (potentially larger than quarters) given SHIP values >1. Additionally, the lapse rates only steepen towards the surface which will allow for strong winds to mix to the surface. One caveat is that if a storm is composed mostly of hail and/or elevated, a strong cold pool may not develop. As such, SPC has the entire area under a MARGINAL (level 1/5) risk for hail and wind Saturday. Convection quickly tapers off by Saturday evening with the loss of diurnal instability with dry weather returning Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds in. Highs range from the mid 70s N to the upper 70s S Sat and Sun. Lows cool to the upper 40s NW to the low-mid 50s SE (upper 50s along the coast) Sat night and around 50F NW to the upper 50s SE (around 60F along the coast) Sun night. One final shortwave pivots through the mid-Atlantic and SE by late Sunday night into early Monday, which would lead to isolated to scattered showers mainly Sunday night and early Monday, but this would be much less impactful than previous systems. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally dry weather is expected through much of next week. - A warmup is expected by the middle of the week. Aloft, an upper level trough lingers over the East Coast on Monday before sliding offshore Tuesday with a ridge moving into the East Coast from mid to late week. However, models differ with respect to the exact evolution of this pattern change. The GFS/GEFS is still more progressive with the trough exiting the coast whereas the EURO/EPS builds the ridge into E Canada but that allows for a piece of the trough over the East Coast to become a cutoff low lingering near or over eastern portions of the area or just offshore into the middle of next week. If the GFS/GEFS is correct, a quick warmup is expected by Tue with highs well into the 80s by Tue and approaching 90F by Wed/Thu. However, if the EURO/EPS is correct, lingering cloud cover would keep temps cooler with EPS highs only in the upper 70s on Tue for Richmond and climbing into the mid to upper 80s by Wed/Thu. For now, kept NBM temps in the forecast given how far out it is. Otherwise, high pressure keeps mostly dry conditions through most of the week. Shower/storm chances increase next Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... Light to occasionally moderate rain remains possible across far N portions of the area through around 10z. The only terminal which may be impacted is SBY. However, confidence was too low to include prevailing rain for the TAF. Instead, went with VCSH. Cloud cover increases with this band of moisture pivoting around an area of low pressure to the N later tonight. As such, expect a period of BKN sky cover at RIC and SBY, potentially reaching PHF. However, CIGs remain VFR apart from a brief period of MVFR CIGs at SBY from 8-12z. Clouds clear early this morning with SCT CU (BKN CU at SBY) developing by late morning and continuing into through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop Saturday afternoon with the highest confidence at SBY. Confidence in exact timing and coverage remains too low at this time to go with prevailing TSRA in the TAFs. Instead have opted for VCTS and PROB30 for now. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any strong storms. Winds remain W ~15 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the terminals through Sat afternoon. Will note that winds briefly diminish later tonight before increasing again Sat morning as diurnal heating develops. Additionally, SBY may see gusts up to ~30 kt between 8-12z early this morning. A wind advisory remains in effect for SBY and the Eastern Shore through 12z to account for the potential for a few gusts up to 40 kt. Otherwise, added LLWS at RIC through 9z. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, can`t rule out a few coastal showers on Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 1000 PM EDT Friday... - Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the rivers and Currituck Sound. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again Saturday afternoon. Winds are still on track to increase and shift out of the west overnight as a cold front pushes over the waters. Gale warnings remain in place for the Bay and coastal waters and SCAs remain in effect for the Currituck sound and the rivers. Seas build to 4-6ft overnight, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. Winds Saturday will remain out of the WSW between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25kt. These elevated winds should remain through midday and by the evening lower just below SCA criteria. Will note that SCA will most likely be needed for the bay starting around early morning Saturday once the Gale warning is dropped. By early Sunday morning latest model guidance continues to show a surge of cooler and drier air across the bay which could lead to another round of SCA. However, confidence in this second surge is low at this time. Seas/waves subside to 3-4ft/2-3ft Saturday. High pressure builds into the region late this weekend and into early next week, before settling offshore by midweek. This will bring benign marine conditions to the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1000 PM EDT Friday... Some minor tidal flooding is expected during high tide early Saturday morning along the Bay side of the lower MD Eastern Shore down to Accomack County VA given a strong westerly wind push. As such, a coastal flood advisory has been issued. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099. Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635>638. && $$ |
| #1232684 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 31.May.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure will bring a round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall late tonight into Saturday morning. A period of drier weather is possible late morning into Saturday afternoon, before another round of scattered showers arrives later Saturday into Saturday night, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible too. Drier weather follows Sunday into Monday. Dry weather much of next week, except Thu and/or Fri, with the risk for scattered showers & thunderstorms. A warming trend is likely too, with a 40-50% chance of highs in the 80s mid to late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Scattered evening showers and possibly a t-storm across interior Partial sunshine and temps warming into the 70s with dewpoints near 60 have contributed to marginal instability with SBCAPES around 500 J/kg. Scattered showers have developed across CT through interior MA and can`t rule out a t-storm through the afternoon, north and west of I-95. Weak surface boundary stalls across western MA this evening and guidance continues to highlight interior MA and CT for scattered showers and perhaps a t-storm into this evening while it remains mostly dry near the coast through about midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * A period of showers and thunderstorms move in late tonight into Sat morning. Locally heavy rainfall and some street flooding possible, especially western MA/CT * Drying out late morning into the afternoon, but a few late day showers or a t-storm possible Quite an interesting scenario unfolding for late tonight into Sat morning as a rather anomalous mid level trough/shortwave acquires neg tilt as it lifts NE across SNE. Closed low develops at 700 mb as it moves into western New Eng with a sub 980 mb surface low which is outside the CFSR climatology for SLP for this time of year. This is quite impressive for almost early June. Winter type dynamics combined with late spring moisture will result in heavy rainfall across the NE as this system moves through late tonight and Sat morning. Decent elevated instability combined with strong forcing will support scattered t-storms as well. Surface instability is minimal so not expecting any severe weather, but will have to monitor instability trends very closely as any surface instability will result in a risk of severe weather. HREF is indicating some updraft helicity tracks indicative of a strong forcing and kinematic environment. Heavy rainfall is the more likely risk from this system. Based on interior track of 700 mb low would expect heaviest rainfall across western MA/CT, but could see a secondary QPF max further east near the coast where elevated instability and low level jet dynamics are more robust. PWATs briefly increase to 1.25-1.5" which only about 1-2SD above normal so rainfall probably will not be as significant as it otherwise could be if moisture were more anomalous. Still, the potential exists for localized 3-4 inch rainfall amounts focused across western MA/CT. In fact, EMC HREF indicating low probs of 3 hr QPF exceeding FFG over the Berkshires and also show 10 percent probs of 5 inches in western MA. The rest of the area will depend on coverage and duration of convection so rainfall will be variable with some areas seeing less than an inch while other areas get more. As shortwave and mid level low lift to the north after 15z, expect showers to exit the region with a period of dry weather late morning into the afternoon. In fact, decent dry slot ahead of the mid level low may lead to some breaks of sunshine across eastern New Eng. However, secondary shortwave passage and cold front may trigger a few late day showers or perhaps a t-storm. Winds shift to SW in the morning then W in the afternoon and become gusty with potential for 30 mph gusts. Highs mostly in the mid 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday evening * Mainly dry Sunday, but cooler than normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s * Dry much of next week along with a warming trend Saturday night...dry slot overspreads the region Saturday afternoon, followed by a secondary short wave pivoting across SNE. Models struggling with the amplitude, moisture and track of this feature. However, cooling temps aloft will support steepening mid level lapse rates combined with cyclonic flow to yield a round of scattered showers with possible embedded thunder. Not expecting severe storms, but a low risk of lightning (10-20%) could briefly impact outdoor events. Timing of low top convection is roughly 20z-02z. Not a washout given short duration and small areal coverage. Strong CAA for this time of year will advect 850 mb temps down to +3C by 12z Sun. This will support lows 45-50 for most locations. Sunday...dry westerly flow, but cold (-20C at 500 mb) cyclonic flow aloft, will yield lots of diurnal clouds. Given mid/upper level trough is deamplifying (rising heights) with time, this should limit any diurnal shower activity to isolated in coverage with the highest probability (10-15%) across the hilly terrain of MA and CT. Thus, by no means a washout with mostly dry weather prevailing. Most breaks of sunshine will be early and again late in the day, with the loss of daytime heating. This cold air aloft will translate to highs only in the 60s (only +3C at 850 mb), perhaps near 70 at the coast given downslope west winds. Although, it will feel cooler given breezy conditions, west winds 15 to 20 mph. Two cool nights as well, with lows in the 40s for most locations Sunday morning and again Monday morning. Next week...long wave trough exits New England Mon/Tue and is replaced by ridging thereafter from the west. This should deliver a warming trend for the region beginning Tue and persisting into late in the week. A few of the ECMWF members pinch off some of the northern stream energy rotating through the long wave trough Mon across the northeast, forming a closed low off the Mid Atlc coast. These few members then track this feature and its moisture across SNE Wed and Thu. However, not much support for this solution from other model guidance, including the GFS and UKMET. Also, the ECMWF ensembles have a 40-50% chance of 80+ deg temps here Wed thru Fri. Thus, will hedge the forecast towards mainly dry and warmer this period. Chance of showers/tstms Thu or Fri with approaching short wave/frontal boundary. Otherwise, next week features lots of dry weather with warming temps each day! && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR cigs with areas of fog near the south coast. Widespread showers and sct t-storms will continue, then lift to the north after 15z. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon after wind shift to W. Gusts to 25-30 kt developing during the afternoon, locally higher over the Cape and islands, especially Nantucket. A few late day showers or a t-storm possible. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts in the afternoon, locally higher to 30 kts over the Cape and Islands. BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in vsby potential and timing. BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in exact timing and specific details. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. Monday Night through Wednesday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday... Increasing S/SE winds tonight, becoming SW 12-18z Sat followed by gusts to 25-30 kt developing. Seas building to 8-10 ft over southern waters. SCA in effect for all waters. Showers and sct t-storms moving over the waters late tonight and Sat morning with poor vsbys in fog, with some improvement developing during the afternoon. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-231-236-251. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250. && $$ |
| #1232683 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 31.May.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1230 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Tonight through Saturday Night... A few lingering showers and general thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of the I-65 corridor, will move offshore by mid evening as a cold front passes through the area. Dry conditions will then follow through the remainder of the week as surface high pressure builds across the southeast states, and deep northwesterly flow filters a dry airmass into the region. High temperatures Saturday should range from 83 to 88 degrees. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night should be in the upper 50s to middle 60s inland, and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. /22 Sunday to Friday... An amplified upper trof is aligned from the New England states southwest to the central Gulf Sunday. There is support in the 30.12Z global model guidance for a mid-level, short-wave trof to drop down into the base of the long-wave trof and track east over the Lower MS River Valley. This feature may bring enough upper support for a slight chance of mainly afternoon showers and storms Sunday. The short-wave trof passes southeast of the area Sunday night into Monday bringing the start of an uneventful weather pattern for the early half of the new week as a drier, deep layer environment sets up. Wednesday is the transition day with a slight chance to chance PoPs returning. Chance to likely pops follow for Thursday and Friday as the local area is positioned on the western flank of a surface high and we move into a more diurnal summer-time pattern. /10 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions with northerly winds around 10 knots are expected overnight into Saturday behind a cold front moving south over the Gulf. A seabreeze developing and moving inland in the afternoon will bring southerly winds around 10 knots to areas well south of Highway 84. Winds are expected to weaken Saturday night, becoming light area wide. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected through the middle of next week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities tonight associated with numerous showers and thunderstorms. A light to moderate offshore flow will develop by mid evening as a cold front passes through the area. Winds will shift from northerly to light westerly by late Saturday afternoon, and then back to northerly by late Saturday night. Winds will again shift from northerly to west-southwesterly by noon Sunday, and then back to northerly by late Sunday night. Variable winds less than 10 knots Monday through noon Tuesday, will become southeasterly to southerly around 10 knots Tuesday afternoon through midweek. /22 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232682 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 31.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 125 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air moves over the region today following the passage of an early morning cold front. An isolated shower is possible late today across portions of North Carolina. Another dry cold front crosses the area early Sunday morning. Temperatures near normal Sunday and Monday will run above normal for much of next week. && .UPDATE... Small Craft Advisory cancelled for the southern waters as convection pushes eastward. Background gusts ahead of the front are only gusting to 20-25 knots at this time with no additional strengthening expected. Seas remain 3-5 feet in the southern waters. The SCA continues for NC coastal waters. No additional changes to the public forecast at 10 PM EDT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Low clouds covering much of the area this morning transitioned to an area of stratocu and now high clouds were streaming overhead. The sunshine will heat things up and help with instability ahead of cold front, but confidence is not that high in terms of coverage of storms as questionable forcing at the low levels with westerly component to the winds and clouds keeping sea breeze pinned closer to the coast. Looks like timing still remains the same for potential storms with 4 to 6p arrival west of I-95 to 6 to 9p best chc east of I-95. An approaching digging upper trough will push this cold front through the area tonight bringing drier and relatively cooler air into the area. Winds will remain stronger and gusty increasing a bit through this evening as trough deepens aloft. Warm and moist air remains in place ahead of it with temps up around 80 most places and sfc dewpoints in the mid 60s, but overall moisture through the column is not that impressive with pcp water values reaching up to 1.6 inches. Soundings showing weak cap eroding now leading to increased chc of storms late this aftn into this evening. Models show line of convection approaching, but weakening as it moves into and across the eastern Carolinas but also shows secondary bit of shortwave energy rotating into the area behind this line and could produce additional storms. Main threat overall should be potential for damaging winds, but with colder air moving in aloft, could see some hail and can not rule out a tornado. Guidance shows clearing skies by midnight with mainly clear skies into Sat. Lows tonight will drop a bit below normal with most places dropping below normal inland of the coast. Overall expect a sunny and warm day on Saturday with temps slightly below normal but still reaching into the low to mid 80s. Can not rule out some passing clouds as some shortwave energy riding around the upper trough shifting slowly eastward through Sat. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A fairly decent mid level trough for early June will be in place through basically all of the short term period. Overall the period remains mostly dry but a shortwave and associated baroclinic zone offer up a chance of convection later Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. There is also a very slight chance of convection across northern zones Saturday evening as well. The temperature guidance/forecast is one of just below or near climatology according to deterministic and probabilistic guidance. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period remains essentially void of pops with a warming trend via mid level ridging developing. There is an interesting feature perhaps a "tutt" that is showing up in some guidance off the southeast coast that if it develops could bring some cloud cover and or showers mid to late week. High temperatures reaching or just eclipsing ninety degrees late in the period are the highlights of the period. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF period. Only weather issue will be gusty west-northwest winds starting around 14Z and lasting through the day as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts will weaken and decrease in frequency starting around 20Z. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect with gusty WSW winds up to 25 to 30 kts through tonight, but diminishing into pre-dawn hours on Sat. Mainly will experience wind gusts up to 30 kt and seas up to 6 ft in the NC waters and more in the way of wind gusts to 25 kts in the SC waters. Winds will remain in the 10 to 20 kt range post FROPA into Sat and seas will be in the 2 to 4 ft range on Saturday. Saturday night through Wednesday... After a brief offshore flow Saturday evening...winds will become more erratic and light Sunday into Monday with if anything a southwest flow printing. It appears a more sustained if a day or two is sustained flow develops into mid week. Speeds remain relatively light a few knots either side of ten. Overall significant seas are representative of the lighter winds around two feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #1232681 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1036 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 After this morning`s line of showers and thunderstorms, the atmosphere has stabilized enough to leave South Texas under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The storms have now pushed off into the western Gulf and northern Mexico, with a few residual stratiform rain near the Laredo area. Tonight, South Texas remains dry. Saturday morning, the greatest chance for showers will remain along the immediate coastline and the western Gulf waters, though confidence in this is low given the low PoPs populated from the NBM (20-30% chance). As such, no adjustments were made to the short term grids. Latest CAMs have a hard time showing any precipitation going through until at least in the mid-afternoon, and these showers will generally be isolated in nature. Lows tonight will generally remain in the 70s with highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to mid-90s Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and again mid to late next week. - Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country Tuesday-Friday next week. Aside from low end rain/storm chances (15-30%) due to passing disturbances aloft Sunday and again mid to late next week, the Extended forecast will be under the influence of a ridge. Temperatures will gradually warm up and will combine with the available moisture to lead to a Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country Tuesday-Friday. Otherwise, expect a quieter forecast this upcoming week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 We will remain generally rain free tonight, with the best chances (20-45%) for any precipitation over the Rio Grande Plains. Have included VCTS in the TAF for LRD tonight. There is a low (30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, so have included PROB30s for the western terminals from 09Z-13Z and the eastern terminals from 17Z-24Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with a low to medium chance of MVFR conditions for ALI and VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore flow is expected across the local waters today through Saturday. Rain chances increase tonight (20-25% chance) with the best chances being Saturday (30-40% chance). A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze can be expected Sunday, then will increase to predominately moderate to at times fresh levels (BF 4-5) Monday and will continue through the middle of next week. Low rain chances will exist over the coastal waters during the weekend and again mid to late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 89 75 92 / 20 40 10 10 Victoria 72 91 73 93 / 10 30 0 20 Laredo 75 93 75 97 / 50 30 10 20 Alice 74 93 73 96 / 20 40 10 10 Rockport 77 90 77 90 / 20 40 10 20 Cotulla 76 94 76 99 / 40 30 10 10 Kingsville 75 90 74 93 / 20 40 10 10 Navy Corpus 79 86 78 87 / 20 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232678 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 31.May.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 A weak cold front has been progressing through the region this morning bringing with it showers and isolated strong (near severe) thunderstorms, and is expected to eventually stall off the coast tonight. The thunderstorm activity will be exiting to the east by the mid to late afternoon, but some post-frontal showers may linger along and south of I-10 through this evening. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may redevelop along the coast Saturday morning with highest coverage expected around the Matagorda Bay region as diffuse front meanders around. Temperatures today have been cooled thanking to the increased cloud cover and scattered precipitation with high temperatures likely staying in the low to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures tonight will drop into the 60s north of Harris County, with low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and southwards. Saturday will be slightly warmer thanks to the lower rain coverage with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s, but overnight lows will be similar to tonight`s. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 There remains not a whole lot to say about the long term at this time beyond...yup, it`s early summer! A quick summary of the Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index reveals a whole lot of white across Southeast Texas, indicating very little potential for extreme events through next week. One small bit of 0.5-0.6 values near the coast emerges later next week, indicating an "extreme" event is possible is later next week for minimum temperatures. Basically from Monday night/Tuesday morning onward, I`ve got low temps at/above 80 degrees beginning to encroach on Galveston and other communities on the immediate coast (Anahuac, High Island, Surfside, etc). These increasing warm nights do not surprise me too overly much. We`ll have persistent onshore flow through this period, keeping a strong Gulf connection to keep dewpoints high at night, especially closer to the coast. High dewpoints will keep the temperature floor high, and given how compressed our temperature range can get in the summer, it doesn`t take a huge boost to the temperature floor to start having to consider the potential for record high min temps. Patches of 0.5+ EFI aren`t the strongest indicator of unusually hot nights ahead, but does signal it to be something to be on the watch for. One other thing we`ll have to be mindful of? A weak cold front will be approaching the region mid to late week next week. But man, this front looks so weak. (This is where you go "How weak is it?") It looks so weak, I doubt it makes it much past the Red River, much less anywhere close to Southeast Texas. But...it and the upper trough supporting it may get near enough to help enhance our typical diurnal showers and storms some. So I roll with some modestly higher PoPs (thinking like 30s or so rather than 15ish percent each day), at least north of the Houston metro for Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Largely VFR across the area throughout, though overnight there may be patches of either fog or low stratus to briefly take some spots to MVFR. Due to lack of confidence in impact to any particular terminal, only have a 4SM spot at foggy spot LBX, and keep all other sites VFR. Only other concern will be winds. Generally light and northerly to variable at the outset, becoming a bit stronger and more northeasterly (5+ kts) for much of the day. Tonight, winds become lighter again, and though variable due to being nearly calm, will likely become more southeasterly than anything else. && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Light to moderate north to northeast winds are expected in the front`s wake through this morning and early afternoon. Through the afternoon, winds will begin to veer, becoming south to southeast tonight. Onshore winds are expected to increase early next week, resulting in gradually building swell. As those winds gradually build, small craft may need to exercise caution on Tuesday and even a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on the coastal Gulf waters. Daily potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will also exist. At the shore, persistent onshore winds next week could lead to strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches as well as minor rises in water levels during the upcoming week. At times of high tide, guidance suggests continued water levels around 2.5-3.0 feet above MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 69 86 68 / 100 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 82 72 88 72 / 100 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 77 84 77 / 100 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232679 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 31.May.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 118 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep through our area tonight. High pressure will build in over the weekend and prevail through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: The front is beginning to make its way across the forecast area and the cloud canopy is starting to clear from north to south. The forecast remains quiet through the overnight. Lows in the upper 50s inland still appear to be on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: Now on the backside of the upper level trough axis and surface front, marginally cooler temperatures will result in afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s, warmest along the coast. Winds will remain out of the west-northwest sustained 10 to 15 mph with gusts into the lower 20s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds weaken overnight as a cold front may move in from the north, potentially stalling across the South Carolina lowcountry, with overnight lows in the lower 60s to upper 60s, warmest along the coast. Sunday: Upper level trough deepens ahead of an approaching shortwave, with the aforementioned front pushing north throughout the day. This will result in temperatures again in the mid to upper 80s, warmest along the coast. The shortwave moves across the area during the evening and overnight hours, bringing our next chances for showers and thunderstorms. NBM has very low and scattered pops for the region as this shortwave moves through, which admittedly matches up with what the models are suggesting, but would not be surprised to see that increase over the next couple model cycles. Monday: The trough axis will be pushing off into the Atlantic throughout the morning hours, with a surface high pressure moving down into the region throughout the day. An afternoon sea breeze may spark off a round of showers and thunderstorms, but as we are under the area of subsidence aloft, probabilities remain largely below 20 percent. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected, warmest across southeastern Georgia. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridging occurs behind the exiting trough, bringing dry conditions back to the area. With mid to upper level geopotential heights remaining on the higher side of climatology, though well below the 90th percentile, normal to above normal temperatures are expected with daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chances for rainfall return Thursday afternoon and evening as mid-level moisture increases. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: A cold front will push offshore late tonight, shifting winds out of the west northwest. Mariners should be aware that late this evening, a line of thunderstorms will be quickly pushing offshore ahead of the front, some of which could be strong to severe. Strong/damaging wind gusts and hail are possible within stronger storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all marine zones through 11PM this evening. Otherwise, gusts outside of convection will reach 20 kt, except for the Charleston County nearshore waters where some 25 kt gusts will occur. An ongoing Small Craft Advisory continues for the Charleston County nearshore waters into tonight. Wind gusts in the Charleston Harbor will be marginal, so we will continue to monitor to see if a SCA is warranted. Seas will peak no more than 4-5 feet. Saturday will see breezy west-northwesterly winds throughout the morning hours, turning southwesterly during the afternoon, with strongest winds expected along the South Carolina nearshore waters at up to 20 knots. While we currently do not have the winds reaching small craft advisory criteria on Saturday, mariners should check back before heading out as the forecast may favor stronger winds. Wave heights of 2 to 4 feet are expected. Winds weaken overnight into Sunday as they become westerly. The winds on Sunday will remain weak, becoming southwesterly and then southerly throughout the afternoon hours. Waves of 1 to 2 feet expected. There is a low end chance for scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, which may be capable of producing breezy winds. Monday into Wednesday: Outside of potential showers and thunderstorm activity on Monday afternoon/evening, no marine concerns at this time. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ350. && $$ |
