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| #1209092 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 110 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The first of two cold fronts has made its way across our region today, ushering in sunny skies and cooler conditions. Deep layered dry air was already evident in the 12Z MFL sounding and ACARS soundings from MIA, with PWATs rapidly dropping below 1 inch. High temperatures won`t feel too cool today, ranging from the low to mid 70s over the interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s in SE FL. The start of the cooling trend will be more noticeable tonight, as temperatures fall to the upper 40s around the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Friday will be another mostly sunny day with breezy northerly winds, and high temperatures only climbing into the low 70s. The second front will drop through the region tomorrow, ushering in even cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 109 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 With high pressure to our north in control, dry and cool weather is expected this weekend. Low temps Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the middle 40s around the lake region, and low to mid 50s across the metro. High temps on Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the upper 60s around the lake region to lower 70s closer to the coasts. As high pressure shifts to the east late in the weekend into early next week, our flow will become easterly, and therefore a slow moderating trend is expected into next week with temps returning to normal, however the dry conditions are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions through the period in the wake of a cold front. Breezy northwesterly winds prevail through the period at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will develop across all local waters today as northerly winds increase to around 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front. Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet over the Gulf waters, and 5 to 8 feet over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will gradually improve by this weekend as the northerly winds lighten and seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A high rip current risk continues along the Gulf beaches today, and will remain elevated on Friday. Along the Atlantic, there will be a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beaches today, which will remain elevated on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 54 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 52 74 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 54 74 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 54 74 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 54 71 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 54 71 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 54 74 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 53 71 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 54 72 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 54 72 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209091 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1251 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across the area today and will remain the primary feature through early next week. A cold front could approach the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clear and cool conditions midday as CAA continues across the area. Reinforcing cold front/trough is working into the Midlands now, and will continue to tighten the gradient through the afternoon, bringing Frequent gusts into the 20-25 mph range. Tonight: W winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 30s inland and lot to mid 40s along the coast. Although the gradient will steadily diminish overnight, at least light winds are expected to persist through sunrise, with HREF probs of 10 m temps less than 35 and winds less than 5 mph intersecting south of the Pee Dee region near 0%, negating any tangible concern for frost. Lake Winds: This afternoon and this evening we will see another wind surge as a reinforcing cold front approaches and passes through. Another round of sustained winds in the 15-25 knot range with frequent gusts up to around 30 knots can be expected. Therefore we have opted to keep the Lake Wind Advisory going even through the lull, and it remains in effect until 11 pm. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep mid level low will meander over the Northeast on Friday, before exiting on Saturday. The pattern will then flatten and be replaced by weak ridging by the end of the weekend. At the surface, low pressure will finally exit allowing high pressure to continue to build over the local area. Gusty winds are expected on Friday, then the pressure gradient eases through the weekend. Gusts over Lake Moultrie could approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria Friday into Friday night, but at this point remains just shy. Otherwise, expect full sunshine with moderating temperatures. It will be coolest on Friday when highs top out in the mid to upper 50s (~10 degrees below climo). By Sunday, temperatures will recover to the upper 60s. Lows will be chilly, falling solidly into the 30s inland of the coast. Attention then turns to the potential for frost over far interior areas. For Friday night/Saturday morning, while temps are supportive, winds could stay too elevated for widespread frost development. Certainly not out of the question to see patchy frost in more sheltered locations. For Saturday night/Sunday morning, we did go on the cooler side of guidance with ideal radiational cooling conditions in place. As winds are expected to go calm, this could lead to a higher threat for frost. Will continue to monitor trends. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to extend into the area early next week, although a cold front could approach during the latter half of the period. Still some uncertainties in the evolution of that feature, whether it actually passes through or stalls, so changes to the forecast are likely. At this point, no rain is in the forecast. Temperatures will be above climo for Monday and Tuesday then possibly cooler for Wednesday if fropa occurs. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence VFR conditions through the period with very limited moisture at any level. Gusty SW to W winds this afternoon, with peak gusts likely around 25 mph, but frequent gusts more in the 20-25 mph range. Gusts diminish this evening as the surface inversion sets up away from the water (CHS and SAV), which at least occasional gusts could persist at JZI into the night as CAA continues to mix and funnel down the nearby Stono River. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty west winds are expected again Friday. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: Wind ramp back up this afternoon through the early morning hours as a reinforcing cold front passes through. Expect west-northwest winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts to around 30 knots through the overnight. Friday through Tuesday: Gusty west winds will persist over the coastal waters Friday into Friday night, maintaining the ongoing Small Craft Advisories. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts should fall below 25 kt Friday evening so the Advisory is scheduled to come down at 23z/6 PM. Conditions will improve on Saturday, with winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Tuesday. Winds eventually turn southwest with speeds generally 15 knots or less and seas 1-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209090 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1243 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The first of two cold fronts has made its way across our region today, ushering in sunny skies and cooler conditions. Deep layered dry air was already evident in the 12Z MFL sounding and ACARS soundings from MIA, with PWATs rapidly dropping below 1 inch. High temperatures won`t feel too cool today, ranging from the low to mid 70s over the interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s in SE FL. The start of the cooling trend will be more noticeable tonight, as temperatures fall to the upper 40s around the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Friday will be another mostly sunny day with breezy northerly winds, and high temperatures only climbing into the low 70s. The second front will drop through the region tomorrow, ushering in even cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 As we move into the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will settle in over the Florida Peninsula allowing for several days of dry and cool air. With the entry of the significantly cooler air mass, this is expected to bring South Florida the coldest overnight lows since last winter. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with the remainder of South FL in the 50s, early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon highs will trend 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normal across a majority of the region. Some locations, to the north of Alligator Alley, may struggle to reach 70 degrees on Saturday. This will be, by far, the coolest day following the passage of the strong cold front earlier this week. Early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift eastward, allowing for low level winds to begin to veer east- northeasterly. With the veering winds and influence of the Atlantic warmth, temperatures will begin to trend warmer and closer to climatological normals with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are expected to remain benign and dry through the through the weekend into the first half of the new week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions through the period in the wake of a cold front. Breezy northwesterly winds prevail through the period at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will develop across all local waters today as northerly winds increase to around 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front. Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet over the Gulf waters, and 5 to 8 feet over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will gradually improve by this weekend as the northerly winds lighten and seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A high rip current risk continues along the Gulf beaches today, and will remain elevated on Friday. Along the Atlantic, there will be a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beaches today, which will remain elevated on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 54 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 52 74 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 54 74 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 54 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 54 71 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 54 71 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 54 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 53 71 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 54 72 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 54 72 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209089 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1242 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 - A strong, southward-flowing longshore current is expected at area beaches, along with a moderate risk of rip currents - Significantly cooler, drier air arrives today and lasts into the weekend - Hazardous boating conditions over the local Atlantic waters through Friday, and sensitive fire weather conditions continue into the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Gusty north to northwest winds will continue across the area today behind a cold front that has pushed south of Florida. Much drier and cooler airmass continues to move into the area with this northerly flow. GOES-16 TPW imagery is showing PW values have already fallen to less than 0.50 inches. This significantly drier air will keep skies sunny to mostly sunny today, but even with full sunshine it will be much cooler today, with highs around 5-10 degrees below normal. Max temps will range from the upper 60s from the Orlando metro area northward and in the low to mid 70s farther south. Main concern today will be at the beaches, where the gusty northerly flow will lead to a strong southward flowing longshore current. These currents can quickly push swimmers into deeper water, making them more susceptible to getting caught in a rip current. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect for these hazardous surf conditions. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient is strengthening early this morning in the wake of a passing cold front. In response, northwest winds will gradually increase through the morning and into the afternoon. Significantly drier air is also on our doorstep, with GOES-derived PW already indicating PW less than 0.50" pushing into northeast Florida. Temperatures range from the mid 60s north of I-4 to the low 70s along the Treasure Coast. These values will fall quicker into the 50s and 60s through sunrise, while a gradual rebound into the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast by the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times, reaching 20-25 mph. In addition to gusty winds at the coast, a strong, southward- flowing longshore current is forecast to develop at area beaches today. Currents like these can quickly push swimmers into deeper water, making them more susceptible to getting caught in a rip current. Remember to always swim within sight of a lifeguard! Conditions remain breezy at the coast tonight as northwest flow ushers in even cooler air behind a reinforcing cold front. Low temperatures into Friday morning will dip into the mid to upper 40s for most, while coastal locations stay in the low 50s. A 20-30 percent chance for sub-40 degree temperatures exists along and north of I-4, according to the latest 00z HREF probabilities. This Weekend...Drier and cooler than normal conditions will last into the weekend. Friday is another breezy to gusty day with northwest winds 10-15 mph, peaking around 25 mph at times (especially at the coast). Despite plenty of sunshine, daytime highs will struggle to reach the mid and upper 60s Friday and Saturday but return to near normal (mid 70s) on Sunday as high pressure builds over Florida. The coldest morning of the next several, Saturday, will also combine with a light NW breeze to produce wind chills in the upper 30s over a large portion of ECFL. Note that temperatures could dip below 40 degrees briefly across northern Lake and Volusia counties Saturday morning. Monday-Wednesday...A warming trend resumes early next week as zonal mid level flow builds over the central and eastern CONUS. Dry weather continues as moisture fields are slow to recover until later in the week. Light onshore becomes established as daytime highs push into the upper 70s and low 80s. Morning lows Monday will still be in the mid to upper 40s north of I-4, rebounding into the 50s and low 60s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Model output diverges regarding the synoptic pattern over the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which has downstream implications regarding what sensible weather we experience from Thanksgiving Day onward. Right now, we can anticipate near to slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday, along with mostly dry conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...Quickly deteriorating and hazardous boating conditions are forecast through the day as northwesterly winds freshen and build seas. Early this morning, Buoy 41009 was reporting NW winds around 17 kt, gusting 20 to 25 kt. Farther north, Buoy 41117 indicated quickly increasing seas around 6 ft. This northerly wind surge will bring seas up to 4-7 ft nearshore and 8-9 ft offshore later this morning. NW winds 15-20 kt will pick up again after midnight, reaching 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all legs of the adjacent central Florida Atlantic waters (out to 60 nautical miles). Friday-Monday...Hazardous boating is forecast to last through much of Friday, with gradual improvement Friday night into Saturday as winds and seas slowly decrease. 10-14 kt NW flow is anticipated on Saturday, falling below 10 kt for Sunday and Monday. Seas Friday around 5-8 ft in the Gulf Stream fall below 7 ft Saturday morning, decreasing further to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Favorable boating looks to persist through the middle of next week as high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula and local waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1231 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR condition prevailing as high pressure builds across the area. Breezy and gusty NW winds today, with gusts 20-25KT. Winds will decrease into this evening to around 10 KT and remain elevated overnight before increasing once again to 10-15KT with gusts 20-25KT by mid-morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 45 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 47 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 47 69 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 48 70 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 46 66 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 45 66 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 48 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 46 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209088 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 It`s been a chilly night for most of the region with some locations in the upper 30s to lower 40s by 8z. Temps will likely continue to fall a few more degrees but likely slowly as winds are still around 25-30kts at 1k ft according to KHDC VWP. They next 3 days will be on the cool side before we begin a slow moderation for the 2nd half of the weekend and into Thanksgiving week. But in the short term the forecast focus is on temps. Amplified pattern aloft with a l/w trough over the eastern CONUS and high pressure at the sfc driving south through the Plains will remain in place through Saturday morning. This is setting up nicely for a few days of slightly below normal temps with Saturday likely being the coldest morning of the season so far. With the sfc high still centered off to our ENE winds havenb`t completely decoupled and winds just off the deck are still blowing pretty good. Despite the low dewpoints and clear skies this is hurting the cooling off potential this morning and with a reinforcing front overnight tonight with much the same setup morning lows tomorrow morning will likely be fairly similar to this morning. However, Saturday morning should be a different story. High pressure will continue to build south through the Lower MS Valley all day Friday and Friday night sitting right over the area Saturday morning. This should allow for a much lighter wind field. Combine that with the low dewpoints and clear skies and we will have a rather decent radiational cooling setup finally. In addition temps will have a cooler jumping off point making it easier to drop further in the evening. With that we continue to adjust temps down below the NBM deterministic value which is above the 90th percentile for most locations. The best approach was a combination of the NBM, NBM50, and NBM25 which gets a few locations close to freezing but not quite down to 32 yet. Obviously MCB is one of the cooler locations but also the typical drainage locations in the Pearl and Pascagoula drainage areas will fall into the mid 30s. In addition the West Bank near NBG will likely drop into the upper 30s while New Orleans and most of the metro remains in the mid to upper 40s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 The extended forecast shows a warmer and possibly slightly wetter setup before Thanksgiving but looking past Tuesday the models are really struggling with how to handle the pattern. The spread between the 10th and 90th percentile in temps increases SIGNIFICANTLY. With that confidence in the extended forecast past Monday decreases and with the Will remain pretty tight the the latest NBM. Saturday and Sunday high pressure at the sfc will start to slide east while the amplified pattern begins to flatten out. Temps start top moderate Saturday night but more so during the day on Sunday as highs could be 10 degrees warmer in some locations on Sunday. Conditions continue to moderate heading into the new week as we move under zonal flow aloft as early as Sunday night. Zonal flow remains in place through Wednesday. At the same time high pressure at the sfc remains off to the east with a weak boundary setting up northwest of the area. With the pattern expected early next week there is a small chance that we could see a few shots of light rain as multiple weak impulses quickly move through the mean flow. Just a quick look into Thanksgiving and after the forecast becomes very uncertain as the models struggle to figure out the pattern but there are indications that a weak front and slightly stronger s/w could impact the area providing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms and possibly even a risk of severe weather. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 All sites VFR and expected to remain so through the forecast period. Winds expected around 10kt to 12kt with slight decrease through the period and remaining north to northwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 High pressure centered over TX will continue to slide south. This will keep a steady moderate to strong offshore wind over the region today. A reinforcing cold front will also help to bump the winds back up tonight but high pressure should finally settle in helping to relax winds some tomorrow afternoon or evening allowing headlines to finally drop off. High pressure slides east late Saturday with return flow slowly setting back up. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 37 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 41 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 38 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 47 64 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 41 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 36 67 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1209087 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Temperatures starting to warm will be the general trend of the short term forecast as the northerly winds will continue to weaken and eventually turn towards the east while remaining light. Thanks to the surface high pressure and a mostly dry environment, chances of rain are expected to be very low. With mostly clear skies, the high temperatures are expected to be mostly in the upper 70s. However some places in the Middle and Lower Valley could get into the lower 80s for highs today. Moving into tonight, the low temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the region. Once again, parts of the Middle and Lower Valley continue to be the exception to the trend where the low temperatures could actually be in the mid 50s. Going into the day for Friday, the pleasant conditions are expected to continue with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds. The high temperatures for Friday are expected to be a bit warmer with most of the high temperatures in the lower 80s. However a few places in the Northern Ranchlands could see high temperatures a bit lower in the upper 70s. As for the hazards along the coast, with the winds and seas continuing the subside during the day the coastal hazards should expire soon. The High Risk of Rip Currents is expected to expire by this evening and the Coastal Flood Advisory is set to expire by 6 AM this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 500 mb high pressure centered off of the west coast of Mexico will be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA during the period. A mid-level flow from the northwest will gradually transition to a more zonal flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Unfortunately, this will also produce gradually warming daytime high and overnight low temperatures, with well above normal values likely. Additionally, periods of a more intense pressure gradient at the surface will lead to increasing winds and building seas, with a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches for Sunday and Monday and again on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites as surface high pressure continues to influence the region. Light north to northeast winds below 10 knots will prevail through this afternoon before becoming light and variable this evening through tomorrow. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 With the winds and seas continuing to come down, mostly favorable conditions are expected for today through Friday. While today will see light northerly winds and low to moderate seas, however by late tonight, the seas will continue to diminish and the northerly winds will shift toward the east. As such, by Friday, there will be light easterly winds and low seas. (Friday Night through Wednesday) A variable pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce period of adverse marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. The best chance for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory will occur Saturday night through Sunday night, and again on Wednesday. Outside of these time periods, light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 48 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 66 75 70 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 55 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209086 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1219 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure area spreads welcomed steady light to moderate rain today, before tapering to intermittent rain showers tonight into early Friday. Rain could mix with slushy wet snow above 1500 feet elevation tonight but no wintry impacts are expected. Another round of steady light rain moves through eastern New England Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure slowly progresses into the Maritimes for the weekend, with gusty northwest winds and more clouds than sun are anticipated. Dry weather then returns for Monday before an unsettled weather pattern develops again for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 9 AM Update... * Periods of rain today with temps in the 40s to near 50 * Quite breezy along the coast later today Vigorous upper level energy diving southeast from the Great Lakes will combined with low pressure south of Long Island today. This will allow a strengthening easterly LLJ and forcing for periods of rain today. Initial area of widespread rain was impacting western MA into RI...while lighter scattered showers were impacting eastern MA with the moist low level onshore flow. The widespread rain will shift northeast and begin to impact eastern MA over the next 1-3 hours. Periods of rain will continue right through the afternoon with temps in the 40s to near 50. ENE winds will increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph developing along the coast and even up to 35 mph possible in a few spots by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight Steady moderate rain continues through about midnight before shower activity begins to wane as the associated surface low-pressure circulations retrogrades west into eastern New York. While widespread shower activity will come to an end, broad cyclonic flow aloft may continue to support a few lingering showers into the pre-dawn hours. Winds gradually shift to the south/southwest by sunrise tomorrow. Low temps bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Can`t rule out a few snow showers at the higher elevations of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills, but we would not expect any accumulation. Tomorrow Generally a cool/cloudy unsettled day tomorrow as a broad upper- level low meanders over The Northeast. We should dry out for a few hours in the morning before showers redevelop by late morning/early afternoon. This will occur as the upper-low begins to shift east over The Atlantic Waters. Shower activity won`t be as widespread and persistent compared to what is expected today, but an additional tenth to quarter of an inch can be expected mainly east of I-495. Temperatures will be close to normal again in the upper 40s/low 50s. Southerly winds gradually become southeasterly/easterly again by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, damp and overcast Fri night, with steady rains breaking out in the coastal plain. * Gusty NW winds this weekend, with more clouds on Sat along with off-and-on showers. Seasonable temps but the winds will make it feel cooler. * Dry for Monday, but turning more unsettled into midweek. Details: Friday Night: Cloudy, damp and unsettled conditions for Southern New England continue into Fri night with vertically-stacked circulation continuing to meander around western New England/southern NY vicinity. However there still looks to be a round of steadier light rains which develop/rotate NNW from the southern waters into eastern MA, the Cape and the Islands. Looking at GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble members, there is a significant enough majority of members which keep this secondary burst of steadier rains into the MA/RI coastal plain with lighter intermittent precip over western MA/CT. However QPF amts are still pretty variable; while QPF amts are more commonly in the quarter to half inch range in the coastal plain thru Fri night, there are a minority of members up to 3/4ths an inch. By early Sat AM, this band of steadier rains should shift NNE into coastal ME/NH as the broader upper level low begins to pull offshore. The Weekend: Ensembles continue to trend toward a slower NE departure of the upper-level low and its cold pocket of air aloft for the weekend. Thus a trend toward cloudier conditions for Sat with off-and-on light showers, with better chances in eastern and northern MA, Cape and Islands. Less cloud cover in general for Sunday, with more in/around the terrain but with drier conditions. Highs on Sat in the 40s to around 50, and with a pretty strong NWly gradient flow and cloud cover, lows may only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. With less cloud cover, highs Sun in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s Sun night. The cooler temperatures aloft and a robust NW gradient flow will also contribute to rather blustery to gusty NW winds through the weekend. Model soundings also continue to show mixing up to about 900 mb on Sat, and slightly higher around 850 mb for Sun with a little less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. For Sat, NW gusts could reach into the 25 to 30 mph range during the daytime hrs. Strongest 925 mb jet of 35-40 kt moves thru Sat night into early on Sun, and we should still realize gusts around 20-25 mph into the evening for most areas, but could punch up to around 35-45 mph over the Berkshires, hills in Worcester County as well as the Cape and Islands. Still see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for Sunday thru the early afternoon, then beginning to subside late in the day as gradient starts to relax and low level jet core shifts offshore. Potential for gale headlines for the waters, although over land, confidence in gusts reaching Advisory levels is lower but could be possible if we mix deeper. Will reassess gusts as we get into the mesoscale model forecast horizon. Monday: Still looking at pretty tranquil weather conditions for Mon with weak shortwave ridging aloft and modest SW winds allowing for highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night through Wednesday Night: A more active weather pattern is indicated by most of the ensembles into the early to middle part of next week, as slow-evolving trough energy circulating over the West Coast/Pac NW begins to eject eastward off the Rockies. At least one frontal system moves in during this period, around the Mon night/Tue timeframe, although there are still significant differences in strength with this potential system. Forecast confidence is still on the low side in this period and stayed fairly close to NBM forecasts for this period until those differences shake out. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon and tonight...High Confidence. Low end MVFR-IFR conditions persist this afternoon and evening along with periods of rain/drizzle and fog. ENE winds gusts of 20 to 30 knots with the strongest along the coast. In addition...we may see a few gusts up to 35 knots tonight across portions of the coast. Friday and Friday night...Moderate Confidence. We should see temporary improvement to MVFR and even VFR Fri morning into part of the afternoon as dryslot overspreads the region. This will be temporary though as we do expect conditions to lower to MVFR with localized IFR conditions later Fri and especially Fri night along with another batch of rain. Still some uncertainty on how far west this next main band of rain gets...but greatest risk for it to be most widespread appears to be eastern MA & RI. Winds becoming SSE at 5 to 15 knots Fri...shifting to the NE Fri evening and then to the NW by daybreak Sat. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Low end MVFR-IFR conditions in periods of rain/drizzle and fog will persist through the evening push. ENE wind gusts of 30+ knots at times into tonight. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. MVFR-IFR conditions in periods of rain/drizzle will persist through the evening push. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday 1015 AM Update... * Gale Warnings posted for tonight Low pressure south of Long Island will generate an increasing E LLJ today. Gusts will increase into the 25 to 30 knot range this afternoon with some gusts around 35 knots tonight. Based on the latest guidance and good mixing with the E LLJ...opted to issue Gales for our open waters beginning this evening through tonight. We should see improving conditions during during the day Friday, but still expect 5 foot seas over the outer marine zones through Friday evening. Winds over the coastal waters on Friday will be easterly from 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts up to 25 knots possible. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1209085 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 No significant changes were made to the forecast. Tweaked dew points slightly downward for this afternoon with some spots already seeing dew points in the upper 20s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A secondary cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and this front has been ushering in the stronger push of colder weather. Despite full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will still only be in the mid 60s. These will be the coolest temperatures of the Fall season so far. Later tonight, northwest flow continues but it should subside somewhat given the dry and clear conditions. However, ideal radiational cooling conditions aren`t expected given winds remaining elevated overnight. Low temperatures will be much cooler and in the upper 30s across Alabama/Georgia counties and around 40 in our Florida counties. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 At the start of the term, a strong upper level low centering over the Northeast U.S. would have brought an associated cold front through the southeast, reinforcing the cool and dry air that we have been experiencing. Continued northwest flow and PWATs of less than 0.5" will leave us dry for the next several days with cold overnight temperatures for the weekend. Friday`s cold front will arrive during the early morning hours, allowing our afternoon temperatures to remain in the low 60s; and for our AL and GA counties, may struggle to reach 60 degrees. Surface high pressure will fill in behind the front leading to clear skies and light to calm winds during the overnight hours. These conditions will lead to decent radiational cooling and allow for temperatures to fall further into the mid to upper 30s for Friday night into Saturday morning, and again for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wind chills for our AL and GA counties will be around the low to mid-30s. This may lead to cold-weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. We may also experience some patchy frost develop Saturday and Sunday morning, so be sure to protect sensitive plants. As the surface high traverses east across the FL Peninsula over the weekend, temperatures and dew points begin to gradually increase for the upcoming work week. Afternoon temperatures return to the mid and upper 70s, which is around 10 degrees above the climatological norm. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s, which is also above normal for this time of year. Surface winds will become southerly again for the start of the work week, allowing for moisture from the Gulf to advect inland, increasing our dew points to the 60s. PoPs throughout the term remain low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. NW winds around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt are expected through the afternoon, subsiding this evening into the overnight. If the winds settle enough, there may be some potential of LLWS at the terminals, but confidence is too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue today into tomorrow following a strong cold front that pushed through on Wednesday. Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Recent wetting rains should keep fire weather concerns low despite the breezier and much drier pattern we`ll see on Thursday and Friday. Dispersions will be high this afternoon and remain elevated again on Friday due to elevated northwesterly transport winds and 3 - 5 kft mixing heights. Surface winds will remain elevated around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph this afternoon. Light winds expected over the upcoming weekend which should allow low fire weather concerns to continue. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 42 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209084 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1113 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 The primary story through this cycle will be continued moderate surface winds for all terminals. Gusts will subside a bit overnight before northerly flow gradually increases again shortly after sunrise on Friday. Otherwise, no CIG/VIS issues with VFR conditions prevailing. (LIX-Frye) && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 A reinforcing frontal boundary will move south across the area this afternoon and this evening with very little fanfare as the airmass over the region is already extremely dry after the passage of the earlier front. Much cooler and even drier high pressure will then build southeast across the region tonight through Friday night. High temperatures today will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 60s across the entire area. Much colder tonight with lows over most of the interior dropping down into the mid to upper 30s. Some patchy frost possible tonight along and north of the Highway 84 corridor. or. Even cooler on Friday and Friday night as the center of the high pressure moves closer to our area. Highs on Friday will range from the mid to upper 50s over most of interior southeast MS and southern AL, with lower 60s over the southern MS counties and the coastal counties of AL and northwest FL. Lows Friday night may fall to near the freezing mark over our northernmost counties, with mid to upper 30s all the way south to around the I-10 corridor. Generally expect lower 40s south of I-10, except for some mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast. Patchy frost possible away from the coast over most of the interior counties Friday night with nearly calm winds and good radiational cooling. With the high pressure and very dry air building in, mostly clear skies and no precipitation expected through Friday night. DS/12 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure will move east Saturday into Sunday with a light southerly flow developing. This will allow moisture levels to increase along with moderating temps ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will stall north of the area on Tuesday. However with the increasing moisture and lift from the upper shortwave, a few showers will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s warming into the mid/upper 70s by Monday. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209081 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Picture perfect weather can be expected across South Texas the next few days with clear skies, seasonable temperatures, light winds and low humidity. A mid level ridge will nose into the region during this short term period maintaining the dry and quiet weather pattern. In fact PWAT values will hover around 0.25" which is 2 standard deviations below normal. Although fuel moisture and afternoon relative humidity values are low, the light and variable winds, will limit the fire danger. We`ll see max temps today in the mid 70s. Friday`s highs will be about 5 degrees warmer with a slight increase in humidity due to the weak onshore flow. Not anticipating any fog formation tonight but there is an increasing risk for fog late Friday Night/Saturday morning given the increased boundary layer moisture and light onshore winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Not much change in the long term period as a quiet pattern persists through the weekend and early next week. Surface ridging will shift east of the area into the Gulf of Mexico bringing a return to southeast and southerly flow into the region. This will both increase moisture and increase temperatures across South Texas. High temperatures by late weekend and through early next week will be 10+ degrees above normal in the upper 80s to around 90. Mid to late next week looks like our next opportunity to possibly get a front through. All the global models are showing a surface front come through Thursday into Friday, however the mid-level patterns are very different. On Thursday, for instance, the GFS has a zonal pattern while the ECMWF shows troughing west and ridging east and the Canadian is in an opposite phase as the EC. Looks like the pattern should get more active anyway, but details are nothing to key in on yet. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Light and variable winds will persist through Friday. Dry air will keep VFR conditions across South Texas. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Light and variable winds continue through early Saturday. Onshore flow gradually increases late Saturday into Sunday, becoming moderate and occasionally strong Sunday night. Winds Monday through the middle of next week are expected to remain moderate out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 77 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 45 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 73 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 72 60 74 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209080 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1102 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure over the region will be slowly shifting to the east through the end of this week. Aloft, the NW flow is expected to persist. All of this should translate to light N/NE winds these next couple of days as the cool/dry air mass remains in place over SE TX. With mostly clear to clear skies, highs today and tomorrow are going to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will run from the up- per 30s to lower 40s across our northern CWA...mid to upper 40s over the central and southern CWA tonight (mid 50s at the beaches). These overnight temperatures should run a couple of degrees warmer for to- morrow night...upper 30s for the Piney Woods, lower and mid 40s over the Brazos Valley to the I-10 corridor, upper 40s for H-town proper/ coastal counties, and the upper 50s along the immediate coast. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure is expected to depart to our east on Saturday. As it does so, southerly flow will return and will begin to transport warmer moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a gradual warming trend across Southeast Texas with the highs going from the low to upper 70s on Saturday to the low to upper 80s by Monday. The global models are suggesting a weak upper level trough skirting the Southern Plains and could potentially bring in a very weak cold front sometime late Monday into early Tuesday. At this time, low level moisture (PWs of around 1 inch or less) and/or forcing may not be sufficient for this front to bring us much rain activity, although some light rain or drizzle isn`t out of the question. What the front could provide for us, however, is a respite in the warming trend and may even cool us down a few degrees Monday night into Tuesday. The high temperatures for Tuesday could range between the low 70s to low 80s. Again, this will all depend on how strong and how far south this front tracks. A stronger upper level trough may push across the Southern Plains sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday and could bring in another, potentially stronger, cold front across Southeast Texas. Model guidance is not in agreement with the timing of this front. Thus, it is currently difficult to pin point exactly how much rain we will receive ahead of the front and how much cooling will occur in the wake of the front. For now, proceeded with the NBM solution for this forecast issuance, which includes slight rain chances for the inland portions starting during the day on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1057 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR prevailing through the period. Light winds out of the NNE today, becoming light and variable overnight into Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Winds and seas will continue today as high pressure moves across Texas. Light offshore winds will persist through Friday. Onshore flow will return on Saturday and increase Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens. Caution flags may be needed. Light onshore flow is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by another increase in wind speeds on Wednesday ahead of the next cold FROPA - potentially moving across Southeast Texas sometime Thursday. Confidence for the timing of this cold front is very low at this time due to differences in the forecast models. Therefore, some adjustments to the timing of the increased wind speeds and rain chances could occur during the next few days. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209079 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 PM 21.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1206 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore of the Delmarva coast early this morning. Meanwhile, several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Blustery and much cooler weather conditions behind a strong cold front. NW winds average 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph (highest coastal areas). - Remaining mainly dry, aside from a few showers over the northern neck and the eastern shore. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night over interior northeast NC and portions of the western Tidewater area. Latest analysis reveals a potent upper level low centered over the Great Lakes at sunrise this morning. At the surface, a strong ~996mb sfc low was analyzed over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with a secondary low now just offshore of the NJ coast. The strong trough and its associated sfc low will pivot SSE into the northern mid-Atlantic through tonight, with the sfc low near New York City becoming the primary sfc low tonight, as it retrogrades west into SE NY towards the wobbling upper low. There will be multiple shortwaves transversing SE along the trough, thereby allowing multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. The first (and weakest) of these shortwaves push through this afternoon and this evening. This allows the area to start drying out today on breezy WNW winds. Another surge of gusty winds to 20 to 30 mph are expected, along with some sct mid- level clouds by afternoon and perhaps a few showers (or sprinkles) this evening along the eastern shore. Otherwise, expect most of the area to remain dry through tonight. Highs only top out in the low to mid 50s. Winds do decouple a bit inland later tonight, which will make for a stark temperature contrast between inland areas and the coast. Look for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s along the coast. This will put a narrow stripe of counties still active in the frost-freeze program at lows right around freezing. Have gone ahead and added these counties from Bertie/Northampton and Gates NC up to James City in a Freeze Watch for tonight. Either way, look for wind chills in the 20s for most of the area overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - More widespread showers are possible on Friday. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area Friday morning into early afternoon. The Sfc low over E PA dives back SE tomorrow, and with the upper low diving into the northern mid-Atlantic, this will send the second shortwave through the region Friday. This feature looks to be a bit stronger, providing a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid upper 40s across the Piedmont and lower 50s along the SE coast. Have increased PoPs into likely range for the northern neck and eastern shore for showers from midday Friday into Friday night. Have also included some low end PoPs for along and to the S of the I-64 corridor into RIC metro and Hampton Roads. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. However, that moisture layer is mostly within the DGZ and could easily result in a few reports of graupel or even a few snowflakes mixing in over northern portions of the area Friday morning into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Drying out Friday evening/night, but remaining breezy and partly to mostly cloudy early with partial clearing late. Early morning low temperatures not quite as cold in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The upper level trough will begin to move out of the area into the Gulf of Maine Saturday, as upper ridging builds to the east. This will allow a milder day with highs warming back into the middle 50s to around 60. The breezy conditions gradually relax late Saturday into Sunday as the trough moves out of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures next week are expected gradually moderate each day through midweek, as the high moves off the coast and upper ridging crests overhead Monday and Tuesday. Highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Rain chances return to the forecast next Wednesday ahead of the next system arriving from the NW. Will note, by the middle of next week the ensembles do disagree with the placement and strength of the next system. However, they do agree on a potential system and Pops remain tn the forecast and stay between 15-25%. The surface low slowly shifts into the Gulf of Main on Saturday afternoon and night. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1205 PM EST Thursday... Conditions have greatly improve in the wake of the front, and CIGs have returned to VFR across area terminals. Expect the VFR CIGs persist through the period, with NW winds to average 10-15 kt w/gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early evening. Sct CU/Stratocu clouds are expected, but CIGs should remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. As of the latest satellite scans these clouds have begun to develop across the Piedmont and are now moving into the RIC terminal. Winds tonight are expected to remain the same around most of the terminals. Some of the latest model guidance does have wind gusts lowering across ECG and SBY later this evening. Outlook: Additional upper disturbances pinwheeling through will maintain gusty W-NW winds Fri- Sat. Winds will gust to 25-30 KT on Friday, before gradually diminishing Saturday into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected across N/NE sections of the area (KSBY) Friday aftn/Fri night. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters through Friday afternoon. - Gale Watches have been issued for all local waters from late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front E of the local waters with an occluded low over the Great Lakes and a secondary low off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds were NW 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, and Lower James River. As such, Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs. Winds gradually diminish this morning as the pressure gradient weakens, eventually becoming W this afternoon. A period of potentially sub-SCA conditions is possible across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound later this morning into this afternoon with W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters. However, W winds increase back to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this afternoon into tonight behind a secondary cold front. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible across the coastal waters and lower bay with this surge, however, wind probs for gusts of 34 kt are <40% (lower for zonal averages). Additionally, the surge looks to be brief (~3 hrs). As such, will refrain from issuing Gale Warnings for this surge at this time. Winds remain elevated (although trending lower) into Fri before a trough moves through, reinforcing the CAA yet again. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are high for this surge with probs approaching 100% across the coastal waters and 70% across the Ches Bay. As such, expect W winds to increase to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across all local waters late Fri afternoon through Fri night. Therefore, Gale Watches have been issued for late Fri afternoon through Fri night. SCA conditions continue Sat before winds gradually diminish Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. Waves and seas of 3-5 ft and 4-7 ft (locally higher across the NC coastal waters) respectively continue to be possible early this morning. Waves subside to 2-4 ft later this morning with seas remaining elevated into Sat night. Another period of 4-5 ft waves is possible with the Fri afternoon into night surge. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ089-090-092-093-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1209078 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1105 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A pleasant morning is occurring in the Florida Keys with current temperatures across the island chain in the mid 70s! Sky cover will continue to clear out with mostly sunny skies across the eastern island chain. For the western portion of our islands stratocumulus clouds, visible on GOES-16 satelitte to our northwest, will march slightly southeast along the northwesterly boundary layer flow creating partly to mostly cloudy skies for those zones. Winds are expected to lull significantly this afternoon, mainly in the easternmost waters, due to daytime heating and the parallel direction of the winds to the mainland. Meanwhile, the western waters are expected to stay elevated all day. Thereafter, winds will surge again tonight for those areas as the best cold air advection moves through our area. Small Craft Advisories will likely be in effect for all coastal waters tonight. Dry air will continue to limit any shower activity, therefore, nil PoPs expected through tonight. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in Effect for the Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel west of the Seven Mile Bridge, and Gulf waters including the Dry Tortugas. Elsewhere, Small Craft Exercise Caution until winds decrease. From synopsis, fresh northwest to northerly breezes will persist across mainly the western waters in the wake of a cold front. Waters in the lee of South Florida will likely see a brief, but substantial, lull this afternoon. Moderate to fresh northwest to northerly breezes will continue through the remainder of the week, with considerable diurnal speed variations. High pressure will then advance eastward through the Gulf Coast states this weekend resulting in winds relaxing and veering northeast to east northeasterly. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions will largely prevail at both terminals through the afternoon. MTH will see improving ceilings, though EYW will see fluctuating ceilings occasionally approaching MVFR levels as cold air advection over warmer Gulf waters continues to produce low level clouds. Winds will continue to be northwest to north, with EYW receiving wind speeds of around 15 kts and gusts of around 25 kts leading to potential crosswind issues through the rest of the day. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ033>035-044-054-055-074-075. && $$ |
| #1209077 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1025 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore of the Delmarva coast early this morning. Meanwhile, several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Blustery and much cooler weather conditions behind a strong cold front. NW winds average 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph (highest coastal areas). - Remaining mainly dry, aside from a few showers over the northern neck and the eastern shore. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night over interior northeast NC and portions of the western Tidewater area. Latest analysis reveals a potent upper level low centered over the Great Lakes at sunrise this morning. At the surface, a strong ~996mb sfc low was analyzed over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with a secondary low now just offshore of the NJ coast. The strong trough and its associated sfc low will pivot SSE into the northern mid-Atlantic through tonight, with the sfc low near New York City becoming the primary sfc low tonight, as it retrogrades west into SE NY towards the wobbling upper low. There will be multiple shortwaves transversing SE along the trough, thereby allowing multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. The first (and weakest) of these shortwaves push through this afternoon and this evening. This allows the area to start drying out today on breezy WNW winds. Another surge of gusty winds to 20 to 30 mph are expected, along with some sct mid- level clouds by afternoon and perhaps a few showers (or sprinkles) this evening along the eastern shore. Otherwise, expect most of the area to remain dry through tonight. Highs only top out in the low to mid 50s. Winds do decouple a bit inland later tonight, which will make for a stark temperature contrast between inland areas and the coast. Look for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s along the coast. This will put a narrow stripe of counties still active in the frost-freeze program at lows right around freezing. Have gone ahead and added these counties from Bertie/Northampton and Gates NC up to James City in a Freeze Watch for tonight. Either way, look for wind chills in the 20s for most of the area overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - More widespread showers are possible on Friday. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area Friday morning into early afternoon. The Sfc low over E PA dives back SE tomorrow, and with the upper low diving into the northern mid-Atlantic, this will send the second shortwave through the region Friday. This feature looks to be a bit stronger, providing a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid upper 40s across the Piedmont and lower 50s along the SE coast. Have increased PoPs into likely range for the northern neck and eastern shore for showers from midday Friday into Friday night. Have also included some low end PoPs for along and to the S of the I-64 corridor into RIC metro and Hampton Roads. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. However, that moisture layer is mostly within the DGZ and could easily result in a few reports of graupel or even a few snowflakes mixing in over northern portions of the area Friday morning into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Drying out Friday evening/night, but remaining breezy and partly to mostly cloudy early with partial clearing late. Early morning low temperatures not quite as cold in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The upper level trough will begin to move out of the area into the Gulf of Maine Saturday, as upper ridging builds to the east. This will allow a milder day with highs warming back into the middle 50s to around 60. The breezy conditions gradually relax late Saturday into Sunday as the trough moves out of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures next week are expected gradually moderate each day through midweek, as the high moves off the coast and upper ridging crests overhead Monday and Tuesday. Highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Rain chances return to the forecast next Wednesday ahead of the next system arriving from the NW. Will note, by the middle of next week the ensembles do disagree with the placement and strength of the next system. However, they do agree on a potential system and Pops remain tn the forecast and stay between 15-25%. The surface low slowly shifts into the Gulf of Main on Saturday afternoon and night. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... The well-advertised strong cold front swept across the region earlier this morning, bringing gusty winds, showers and variable CIGs to area terminals. Conditions continue to gradually improve in the wake of the front, and CIGs have returned to VFR across area terminals. Expect the VFR CIGs persist through the period, with NW winds to average 10-15 kt w/gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early evening. Sct aftn CU/Stratocu clouds are expected, but CIGs should remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. Outlook: Additional upper disturbances pinwheeling through will maintain gusty W-NW winds Fri- Sat. Winds will gust to 25-30 KT on Friday, before gradually diminishing Saturday into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected across N/NE sections of the area (KSBY) Friday aftn/Fri night. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters through Friday afternoon. - Gale Watches have been issued for all local waters from late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front E of the local waters with an occluded low over the Great Lakes and a secondary low off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds were NW 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, and Lower James River. As such, Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs. Winds gradually diminish this morning as the pressure gradient weakens, eventually becoming W this afternoon. A period of potentially sub-SCA conditions is possible across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound later this morning into this afternoon with W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters. However, W winds increase back to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this afternoon into tonight behind a secondary cold front. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible across the coastal waters and lower bay with this surge, however, wind probs for gusts of 34 kt are <40% (lower for zonal averages). Additionally, the surge looks to be brief (~3 hrs). As such, will refrain from issuing Gale Warnings for this surge at this time. Winds remain elevated (although trending lower) into Fri before a trough moves through, reinforcing the CAA yet again. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are high for this surge with probs approaching 100% across the coastal waters and 70% across the Ches Bay. As such, expect W winds to increase to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across all local waters late Fri afternoon through Fri night. Therefore, Gale Watches have been issued for late Fri afternoon through Fri night. SCA conditions continue Sat before winds gradually diminish Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. Waves and seas of 3-5 ft and 4-7 ft (locally higher across the NC coastal waters) respectively continue to be possible early this morning. Waves subside to 2-4 ft later this morning with seas remaining elevated into Sat night. Another period of 4-5 ft waves is possible with the Fri afternoon into night surge. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ089-090-092-093-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1209076 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1017 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 No significant changes were made to the forecast. Tweaked dew points slightly downward for this afternoon with some spots already seeing dew points in the upper 20s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A secondary cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and this front has been ushering in the stronger push of colder weather. Despite full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will still only be in the mid 60s. These will be the coolest temperatures of the Fall season so far. Later tonight, northwest flow continues but it should subside somewhat given the dry and clear conditions. However, ideal radiational cooling conditions aren`t expected given winds remaining elevated overnight. Low temperatures will be much cooler and in the upper 30s across Alabama/Georgia counties and around 40 in our Florida counties. && .SHORT TERM... && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry northwest flow will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Only aviation concerns will be occasional gusts of 20 knots out of the northwest during daytime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue today into tomorrow following a strong cold front that pushed through on Wednesday. Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Recent wetting rains should keep fire weather concerns low despite the breezier and much drier pattern we`ll see on Thursday and Friday. Dispersions will be high this afternoon and remain elevated again on Friday due to elevated northwesterly transport winds and 3 - 5 kft mixing heights. Surface winds will remain elevated around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph this afternoon. Light winds expected over the upcoming weekend which should allow low fire weather concerns to continue. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 42 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209075 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1015 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure area spreads welcomed steady light to moderate rain today, before tapering to intermittent rain showers tonight into early Friday. Rain could mix with slushy wet snow above 1500 feet elevation tonight but no wintry impacts are expected. Another round of steady light rain moves through eastern New England Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure slowly progresses into the Maritimes for the weekend, with gusty northwest winds and more clouds than sun are anticipated. Dry weather then returns for Monday before an unsettled weather pattern develops again for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 9 AM Update... * Periods of rain today with temps in the 40s to near 50 * Quite breezy along the coast later today Vigorous upper level energy diving southeast from the Great Lakes will combined with low pressure south of Long Island today. This will allow a strengthening easterly LLJ and forcing for periods of rain today. Initial area of widespread rain was impacting western MA into RI...while lighter scattered showers were impacting eastern MA with the moist low level onshore flow. The widespread rain will shift northeast and begin to impact eastern MA over the next 1-3 hours. Periods of rain will continue right through the afternoon with temps in the 40s to near 50. ENE winds will increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph developing along the coast and even up to 35 mph possible in a few spots by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight Steady moderate rain continues through about midnight before shower activity begins to wane as the associated surface low-pressure circulations retrogrades west into eastern New York. While widespread shower activity will come to an end, broad cyclonic flow aloft may continue to support a few lingering showers into the pre-dawn hours. Winds gradually shift to the south/southwest by sunrise tomorrow. Low temps bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Can`t rule out a few snow showers at the higher elevations of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills, but we would not expect any accumulation. Tomorrow Generally a cool/cloudy unsettled day tomorrow as a broad upper- level low meanders over The Northeast. We should dry out for a few hours in the morning before showers redevelop by late morning/early afternoon. This will occur as the upper-low begins to shift east over The Atlantic Waters. Shower activity won`t be as widespread and persistent compared to what is expected today, but an additional tenth to quarter of an inch can be expected mainly east of I-495. Temperatures will be close to normal again in the upper 40s/low 50s. Southerly winds gradually become southeasterly/easterly again by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, damp and overcast Fri night, with steady rains breaking out in the coastal plain. * Gusty NW winds this weekend, with more clouds on Sat along with off-and-on showers. Seasonable temps but the winds will make it feel cooler. * Dry for Monday, but turning more unsettled into midweek. Details: Friday Night: Cloudy, damp and unsettled conditions for Southern New England continue into Fri night with vertically-stacked circulation continuing to meander around western New England/southern NY vicinity. However there still looks to be a round of steadier light rains which develop/rotate NNW from the southern waters into eastern MA, the Cape and the Islands. Looking at GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble members, there is a significant enough majority of members which keep this secondary burst of steadier rains into the MA/RI coastal plain with lighter intermittent precip over western MA/CT. However QPF amts are still pretty variable; while QPF amts are more commonly in the quarter to half inch range in the coastal plain thru Fri night, there are a minority of members up to 3/4ths an inch. By early Sat AM, this band of steadier rains should shift NNE into coastal ME/NH as the broader upper level low begins to pull offshore. The Weekend: Ensembles continue to trend toward a slower NE departure of the upper-level low and its cold pocket of air aloft for the weekend. Thus a trend toward cloudier conditions for Sat with off-and-on light showers, with better chances in eastern and northern MA, Cape and Islands. Less cloud cover in general for Sunday, with more in/around the terrain but with drier conditions. Highs on Sat in the 40s to around 50, and with a pretty strong NWly gradient flow and cloud cover, lows may only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. With less cloud cover, highs Sun in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s Sun night. The cooler temperatures aloft and a robust NW gradient flow will also contribute to rather blustery to gusty NW winds through the weekend. Model soundings also continue to show mixing up to about 900 mb on Sat, and slightly higher around 850 mb for Sun with a little less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. For Sat, NW gusts could reach into the 25 to 30 mph range during the daytime hrs. Strongest 925 mb jet of 35-40 kt moves thru Sat night into early on Sun, and we should still realize gusts around 20-25 mph into the evening for most areas, but could punch up to around 35-45 mph over the Berkshires, hills in Worcester County as well as the Cape and Islands. Still see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for Sunday thru the early afternoon, then beginning to subside late in the day as gradient starts to relax and low level jet core shifts offshore. Potential for gale headlines for the waters, although over land, confidence in gusts reaching Advisory levels is lower but could be possible if we mix deeper. Will reassess gusts as we get into the mesoscale model forecast horizon. Monday: Still looking at pretty tranquil weather conditions for Mon with weak shortwave ridging aloft and modest SW winds allowing for highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night through Wednesday Night: A more active weather pattern is indicated by most of the ensembles into the early to middle part of next week, as slow-evolving trough energy circulating over the West Coast/Pac NW begins to eject eastward off the Rockies. At least one frontal system moves in during this period, around the Mon night/Tue timefame, although there are still significant differences in strength with this potential system. Forecast confidence is still on the low side in this period and stayed fairly close to NBM forecasts for this period until those differences shake out. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today: Moderate confidence. 3-5 SM RA spreads across all airports early this AM, which continues into early tonight. Rain will become increasingly wind-driven as E winds increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the E MA coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue, though ceilings likely to dance between 800-1500 ft most of the day. Took a pessimistic approach with the TAFs indicating IFR, however there could be MVFR intervals in between but difficult to pinpoint a timing. Tonight: Moderate confidence. Widespread 3-6 SM steady RA early tonight trends to more of an intermittent -SHRA or even -DZ between 00-06z, earliest south and later north. Steadier light rain likely to continue at BAF/BDL. Improvement in ceilings toward OVC MVFR interior, and become BKN/OVC VFR over eastern/southeast New England. Winds start E around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, though will become SE/S around 10-14 kt with lesser gusts to around 20 kt. Friday: Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings with periods of -RA interior CT/MA, BKN/OVC VFR ceilings with initially dry wx eastern airports. Later in the afternoon a band of rain moves northward from the ocean and spreads across eastern MA/RI, exact timing uncertain but likely not sooner than 18z. SE to S winds around 7-14 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR/MVFR with 3-6 SM RA developing around ~12-13z. Cigs could flip between IFR-MVFR levels frequently today. Wind-driven rain on ENE/E winds around 15 kt today with gusts 20-25 kt. RA tapers off around 03z to a intermittent light -SHRA, with winds becoming SE around 10-13 kt. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR-MVFR w/ 3-6 SM RA developing around ~08-10z. Steady light to moderate RA continues thru about 02z before lightening up. E winds around 10 kt today, becoming SE tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday 1015 AM Update... * Gale Warnings posted for tonight Low pressure south of Long Island will generate an increasing E LLJ today. Gusts will increase into the 25 to 30 knot range this afternoon with some gusts around 35 knots tonight. Based on the latest guidance and good mixing with the E LLJ...opted to issue Gales for our open waters beginning this evening through tonight. We should see improving conditions during during the day Friday, but still expect 5 foot seas over the outer marine zones through Friday evening. Winds over the coastal waters on Friday will be easterly from 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts up to 25 knots possible. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1209074 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1017 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 - A strong, southward-flowing longshore current is expected at area beaches, along with a moderate risk of rip currents - Significantly cooler, drier air arrives today and lasts into the weekend - Hazardous boating conditions over the local Atlantic waters through Friday, and sensitive fire weather conditions continue into the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Gusty north to northwest winds will continue across the area today behind a cold front that has pushed south of Florida. Much drier and cooler airmass continues to move into the area with this northerly flow. GOES-16 TPW imagery is showing PW values have already fallen to less than 0.50 inches. This significantly drier air will keep skies sunny to mostly sunny today, but even with full sunshine it will be much cooler today, with highs around 5-10 degrees below normal. Max temps will range from the upper 60s from the Orlando metro area northward and in the low to mid 70s farther south. Main concern today will be at the beaches, where the gusty northerly flow will lead to a strong southward flowing longshore current. These currents can quickly push swimmers into deeper water, making them more susceptible to getting caught in a rip current. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect for these hazardous surf conditions. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient is strengthening early this morning in the wake of a passing cold front. In response, northwest winds will gradually increase through the morning and into the afternoon. Significantly drier air is also on our doorstep, with GOES-derived PW already indicating PW less than 0.50" pushing into northeast Florida. Temperatures range from the mid 60s north of I-4 to the low 70s along the Treasure Coast. These values will fall quicker into the 50s and 60s through sunrise, while a gradual rebound into the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast by the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times, reaching 20-25 mph. In addition to gusty winds at the coast, a strong, southward- flowing longshore current is forecast to develop at area beaches today. Currents like these can quickly push swimmers into deeper water, making them more susceptible to getting caught in a rip current. Remember to always swim within sight of a lifeguard! Conditions remain breezy at the coast tonight as northwest flow ushers in even cooler air behind a reinforcing cold front. Low temperatures into Friday morning will dip into the mid to upper 40s for most, while coastal locations stay in the low 50s. A 20-30 percent chance for sub-40 degree temperatures exists along and north of I-4, according to the latest 00z HREF probabilities. This Weekend...Drier and cooler than normal conditions will last into the weekend. Friday is another breezy to gusty day with northwest winds 10-15 mph, peaking around 25 mph at times (especially at the coast). Despite plenty of sunshine, daytime highs will struggle to reach the mid and upper 60s Friday and Saturday but return to near normal (mid 70s) on Sunday as high pressure builds over Florida. The coldest morning of the next several, Saturday, will also combine with a light NW breeze to produce wind chills in the upper 30s over a large portion of ECFL. Note that temperatures could dip below 40 degrees briefly across northern Lake and Volusia counties Saturday morning. Monday-Wednesday...A warming trend resumes early next week as zonal mid level flow builds over the central and eastern CONUS. Dry weather continues as moisture fields are slow to recover until later in the week. Light onshore becomes established as daytime highs push into the upper 70s and low 80s. Morning lows Monday will still be in the mid to upper 40s north of I-4, rebounding into the 50s and low 60s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Model output diverges regarding the synoptic pattern over the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which has downstream implications regarding what sensible weather we experience from Thanksgiving Day onward. Right now, we can anticipate near to slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday, along with mostly dry conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...Quickly deteriorating and hazardous boating conditions are forecast through the day as northwesterly winds freshen and build seas. Early this morning, Buoy 41009 was reporting NW winds around 17 kt, gusting 20 to 25 kt. Farther north, Buoy 41117 indicated quickly increasing seas around 6 ft. This northerly wind surge will bring seas up to 4-7 ft nearshore and 8-9 ft offshore later this morning. NW winds 15-20 kt will pick up again after midnight, reaching 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all legs of the adjacent central Florida Atlantic waters (out to 60 nautical miles). Friday-Monday...Hazardous boating is forecast to last through much of Friday, with gradual improvement Friday night into Saturday as winds and seas slowly decrease. 10-14 kt NW flow is anticipated on Saturday, falling below 10 kt for Sunday and Monday. Seas Friday around 5-8 ft in the Gulf Stream fall below 7 ft Saturday morning, decreasing further to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Favorable boating looks to persist through the middle of next week as high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula and local waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy NW winds today, with gusts 20-25kts. Winds will remain elevated overnight around 10kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 45 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 68 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 71 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 68 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 74 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209073 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1005 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Colder end to the week expected behind a strong cold front, possibly leading to frost or even freezing conditions inland each night. High pressure will move off the coast early next week with warmer temperatures expected. A weaker cold front could move through toward mid week. && .UPDATE... Dry air continues to advect into the region and deep mixing has maintained dew points in the low 30s with some areas in southeastern NC into the upper 20s. Not expecting much change this afternoon. Gusts increase this afternoon with deeper mixing as well, some areas up to 25 mph. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong cold front has moved offshore early this morning with gusty NW winds and dew points mainly in the 30s across the region. Expect these winds to slow down late tonight into early this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. After sunrise, the growing boundary layer (expected to reach up to around 850mb at peak heating) will tap into faster winds aloft and allow for gusty west winds up to around 20-25 kts to develop around midday and continue through the afternoon. High temps will struggle to reach 60F amidst persistent cold advection and a robust subsidence inversion. With the loss of heating, gusty winds driven by vertical mixing will subside late this afternoon into this evening. However, another surge of WNW flow with even drier dew points behind a secondary cold front is expected to push in between 23-04Z this evening, which should bring some temporary gusty winds back into the mix, although speeds will be less than during the day. A weakening pressure gradient will allow for winds to decrease during the latter half of the night, and with clear skies in place, temperatures have the potential to drop to around the freezing mark, particularly across the northern tier of counties in our CWA. Therefore, a Freeze Watch has been issued to account for this possibility. Dew points depressions should be large enough to preclude widespread frost, but preferred areas near a water source or irrigated land may be able to yield frost due to locally higher dew points. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Dry w/ below normal temperatures *Frost/freeze conditions possible inland Fri/Sat nights Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: General troughing will prevail through Friday night with high pressure returning thereafter. Temperatures will stay below normal through the period with highs only in the lower to mid 50s Friday and lower 60s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s away from the coast each night, possibly near freezing in spots. Such temperatures could support frost as well, although there is some uncertainty regarding temps, humidities and winds. Also, should note that the issuance of Freeze Watches/Warnings and Frost Advisories will be predicated on whether freezing temperatures occur tonight which would end the growing season in these areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: *Warming trend early in the week w/ above normal temps starting Mon *Cold front could bring cooler temps and a few showers toward mid week Confidence: *Moderate Details: High pressure will be shifting offshore bringing moderating temps and moisture levels. A cold front looks to approach toward mid week, possibly moving into and/or through the area as early as Tuesday. Moisture and forcing appear weak so not expecting much rainfall with this feature, although some showers will be possible. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. After sunrise, a growing boundary layer will promote a return of breezy west winds at all terminals with gustiness returning around midday. Wind gusts are expected to reach around 20-25 kts during the afternoon as the boundary layer reaches up to around 850mb. Winds will relax somewhat after sunset, but remain steady westerly. A brief period of gusty winds may occur after 00Z as a secondary cold front pushes through with a surge of WNW winds arriving behind it. Winds will gradually slacken overnight and may even go calm towards daybreak. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through the period as high pressure maintains control. Gusty winds will be the only concern on Friday and Saturday afternoons. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Breezy NW winds will gradually subside this morning and back to westerly as the pressure gradient weakens and a weak surface ridge passes through. Winds and gustiness increase again this afternoon and veer to WNW this evening as another surge of cold advection pushes in. Seas will be dominated by wind waves with 2-4 ft waves temporarily subsiding this morning and early afternoon before rebounding to 3-5 ft this evening as a result of the increase in winds later in the day. Some 6 ft waves may be found in outer portions of the coastal waters near 20nmi offshore of Cape Fear during the first half of the night before gradually subsiding thereafter. Friday through Monday...A tight pressure gradient and cold advection will keep winds/seas elevated through Friday night and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this period. High pressure will then build into the area this weekend leading to a relaxation of the pressure gradient and thus improving marine conditions. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ087-096-105. SC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for SCZ017-023-024. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209072 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 917 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 916 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A cold front continues to push southeast of Florida. Clearing conditions over the northern half of the state is apparent on the latest visible satellite imagery with some residual clouds remaining over the southern half. The drier and cooler air will continue to filter into the region through the day with clear skies expected by this evening and overnight. The morning lows dipped into the 50`s for most of the region and will top out in the mid 60`s to low 70`s. Forecast looks good with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 916 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR, rain-free conditions and north-northwest winds around 8-12 knots with gusts to 22 knots prevail at all terminals through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 916 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A cold front continues to move southeast of Florida. Gusty winds are expected behind this front, which has warranted the continuance of a Small Craft Advisory through Friday morning. A High Risk of Rip Currents will also be possible through Saturday evening. Conditions slowly improve starting Saturday afternoon with pleasant weather, decreasing winds and abating seas expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 68 54 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 53 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 47 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 70 58 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 60 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1209071 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 916 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A potent cold front has moved across the area overnight. Another reinforcing cold front will move through today followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 915 AM Thursday...Dry and colder weather will prevail now that the initial strong cold front has moved through the area. We`re now in the post frontal air mass with chilly temps and gusty NW winds. The gusty winds will continue as a secondary reinforcing front passes later today. The combination of gusty winds and minimum RHs around 30-35% for inland areas will result in elevated fire weather conditions (see the Fire Weather section below). Highs will be seasonable in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 915 AM Thursday... - Regarding the low temp/Freeze potential tonight A Freeze Watch has been issued for Martin, Pitt, Greene, Lenoir, Duplin, and inland Onslow counties. Dewpoints have crashed and are very low, currently into the lower 30s. If winds were to decouple, then it would be a slam dunk that low temps would be at or below freezing tonight. However, winds are not expected to completely decouple due to strong CAA which would inhibit radiational cooling overnight. In this scenario low temps in most inland locations would likely remain just above freezing at 33-35 degrees with only isolated temps AOB freezing in sheltered locations. Thus we will need to re-evaluate the freeze potential with the new 12Z guidance specifically on whether or not winds will decouple well inland. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Breezy and cold Friday - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving. Friday - Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. After a chilly start to the day, highs on Friday will struggle to reach the low 50s. By Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is <10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now. Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk of showers. Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low-level flow to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70 once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well. Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow, medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday, followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days. For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less eventful scenario. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 6:15 AM Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. We are now in the post-frontal air mass that initiated the ongoing gusty NW winds. The gradient will remain pinched, so these gusts up to 20 kt will continue through the day as a reinforcing front approaches and crosses the area this evening. Skies will remain mostly clear until this evening`s FROPA, which will introduce a few clouds around 5-6 kft. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gusty west to northwest winds Friday into Saturday - Sub VFR CIGs possible Friday A potent upper level wave will move through on Friday, leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds Friday into Saturday. During this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. A period of sub-VFR CIGs may develop during peak heating Friday, with a few SHRA not completely out of the question. VFR conditions then look to prevail Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 915 AM Thursday...Westerly winds over the coastal waters are currently gusting to 25-30 kts in response to the strong cold front that moved through overnight. The coastal waters will continue to gust to 25-30 kts through today and as a reinforcing front moves through later this evening, gusts will briefly jump to 30-35 kt. Overnight, the gusts will drop back to 25-30 kt. Seas will respond by increasing to 4-6 ft today. Conditions will improve across the inland rivers this morning, but unfavorable winds and seas will continue across the remaining rivers, sounds, and coastal waters through the end of the week. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gale Watch issued for portions of the ENC waters Friday evening into Saturday morning A potent upper level wave will move through the region on Friday, likely leading to another surge of strong west to northwest winds Friday evening into Saturday morning. During this time, guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale-force gusts. Given the consistent signal, we have issued a Gale Watch for a portion of the ENC waters where confidence is the highest. An expansion of the watch is possible if the current signal holds. Winds will finally begin to lay down by late in the weekend. The building winds on Friday will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday. Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 4 AM Thursday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible today. Inland min RH values will drop to 30-35% and westerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM Thursday... Coastal gauges showed a bump up in soundside water levels associated with the passage of last night`s cold front. Water levels have since fallen back down some, but remain slightly elevated. Additional westerly surges of wind later today and again Friday into Saturday should allow water levels to continue to remain elevated into Saturday, with minor coastal flooding still appearing possible. Of note, forecast guidance has trended towards a longer period of gale- force winds Friday evening into early Saturday morning, and this may be the main opportunity for 1-2 ft AGL of inundation for soundside areas favored in westerly flow (ie. Manteo south through Hatteras Village). && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ029-044-079-090-091-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-135-150- 152-154-156-230-231. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1209070 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:03 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 900 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure area spreads welcomed steady light to moderate rain today, before tapering to intermittent rain showers tonight into early Friday. Rain could mix with slushy wet snow above 1500 feet elevation tonight but no wintry impacts are expected. Another round of steady light rain moves through eastern New England Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure slowly progresses into the Maritimes for the weekend, with gusty northwest winds and more clouds than sun are anticipated. Dry weather then returns for Monday before an unsettled weather pattern develops again for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 9 AM Update... * Periods of rain today with temps in the 40s to near 50 * Quite breezy along the coast later today Vigorous upper level energy diving southeast from the Great Lakes will combined with low pressure south of Long Island today. This will allow a strengthening easterly LLJ and forcing for periods of rain today. Initial area of widespread rain was impacting western MA into RI...while lighter scattered showers were impacting eastern MA with the moist low level onshore flow. The widespread rain will shift northeast and begin to impact eastern MA over the next 1-3 hours. Periods of rain will continue right through the afternoon with temps in the 40s to near 50. ENE winds will increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph developing along the coast and even up to 35 mph possible in a few spots by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight Steady moderate rain continues through about midnight before shower activity begins to wane as the associated surface low-pressure circulations retrogrades west into eastern New York. While widespread shower activity will come to an end, broad cyclonic flow aloft may continue to support a few lingering showers into the pre-dawn hours. Winds gradually shift to the south/southwest by sunrise tomorrow. Low temps bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Can`t rule out a few snow showers at the higher elevations of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills, but we would not expect any accumulation. Tomorrow Generally a cool/cloudy unsettled day tomorrow as a broad upper- level low meanders over The Northeast. We should dry out for a few hours in the morning before showers redevelop by late morning/early afternoon. This will occur as the upper-low begins to shift east over The Atlantic Waters. Shower activity won`t be as widespread and persistent compared to what is expected today, but an additional tenth to quarter of an inch can be expected mainly east of I-495. Temperatures will be close to normal again in the upper 40s/low 50s. Southerly winds gradually become southeasterly/easterly again by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, damp and overcast Fri night, with steady rains breaking out in the coastal plain. * Gusty NW winds this weekend, with more clouds on Sat along with off-and-on showers. Seasonable temps but the winds will make it feel cooler. * Dry for Monday, but turning more unsettled into midweek. Details: Friday Night: Cloudy, damp and unsettled conditions for Southern New England continue into Fri night with vertically-stacked circulation continuing to meander around western New England/southern NY vicinity. However there still looks to be a round of steadier light rains which develop/rotate NNW from the southern waters into eastern MA, the Cape and the Islands. Looking at GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble members, there is a significant enough majority of members which keep this secondary burst of steadier rains into the MA/RI coastal plain with lighter intermittent precip over western MA/CT. However QPF amts are still pretty variable; while QPF amts are more commonly in the quarter to half inch range in the coastal plain thru Fri night, there are a minority of members up to 3/4ths an inch. By early Sat AM, this band of steadier rains should shift NNE into coastal ME/NH as the broader upper level low begins to pull offshore. The Weekend: Ensembles continue to trend toward a slower NE departure of the upper-level low and its cold pocket of air aloft for the weekend. Thus a trend toward cloudier conditions for Sat with off-and-on light showers, with better chances in eastern and northern MA, Cape and Islands. Less cloud cover in general for Sunday, with more in/around the terrain but with drier conditions. Highs on Sat in the 40s to around 50, and with a pretty strong NWly gradient flow and cloud cover, lows may only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. With less cloud cover, highs Sun in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s Sun night. The cooler temperatures aloft and a robust NW gradient flow will also contribute to rather blustery to gusty NW winds through the weekend. Model soundings also continue to show mixing up to about 900 mb on Sat, and slightly higher around 850 mb for Sun with a little less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. For Sat, NW gusts could reach into the 25 to 30 mph range during the daytime hrs. Strongest 925 mb jet of 35-40 kt moves thru Sat night into early on Sun, and we should still realize gusts around 20-25 mph into the evening for most areas, but could punch up to around 35-45 mph over the Berkshires, hills in Worcester County as well as the Cape and Islands. Still see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for Sunday thru the early afternoon, then beginning to subside late in the day as gradient starts to relax and low level jet core shifts offshore. Potential for gale headlines for the waters, although over land, confidence in gusts reaching Advisory levels is lower but could be possible if we mix deeper. Will reassess gusts as we get into the mesoscale model forecast horizon. Monday: Still looking at pretty tranquil weather conditions for Mon with weak shortwave ridging aloft and modest SW winds allowing for highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night through Wednesday Night: A more active weather pattern is indicated by most of the ensembles into the early to middle part of next week, as slow-evolving trough energy circulating over the West Coast/Pac NW begins to eject eastward off the Rockies. At least one frontal system moves in during this period, around the Mon night/Tue timefame, although there are still significant differences in strength with this potential system. Forecast confidence is still on the low side in this period and stayed fairly close to NBM forecasts for this period until those differences shake out. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today: Moderate confidence. 3-5 SM RA spreads across all airports early this AM, which continues into early tonight. Rain will become increasingly wind-driven as E winds increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the E MA coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue, though ceilings likely to dance between 800-1500 ft most of the day. Took a pessimistic approach with the TAFs indicating IFR, however there could be MVFR intervals in between but difficult to pinpoint a timing. Tonight: Moderate confidence. Widespread 3-6 SM steady RA early tonight trends to more of an intermittent -SHRA or even -DZ between 00-06z, earliest south and later north. Steadier light rain likely to continue at BAF/BDL. Improvement in ceilings toward OVC MVFR interior, and become BKN/OVC VFR over eastern/southeast New England. Winds start E around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, though will become SE/S around 10-14 kt with lesser gusts to around 20 kt. Friday: Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings with periods of -RA interior CT/MA, BKN/OVC VFR ceilings with initially dry wx eastern airports. Later in the afternoon a band of rain moves northward from the ocean and spreads across eastern MA/RI, exact timing uncertain but likely not sooner than 18z. SE to S winds around 7-14 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR/MVFR with 3-6 SM RA developing around ~12-13z. Cigs could flip between IFR-MVFR levels frequently today. Wind-driven rain on ENE/E winds around 15 kt today with gusts 20-25 kt. RA tapers off around 03z to a intermittent light -SHRA, with winds becoming SE around 10-13 kt. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR-MVFR w/ 3-6 SM RA developing around ~08-10z. Steady light to moderate RA continues thru about 02z before lightening up. E winds around 10 kt today, becoming SE tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday Conditions deteriorate over the coastal waters today as an area of low-pressure moves over the south coastal waters. Seas build to 6 to 8 feet by the mid-afternoon hours with moderate easterly winds gusting to 30 knots. A few gale force gusts may be possible over the eastern marine zones near the midnight hour, but generally expecting gusts to stay in the SCY range. We should see improving conditions during during the day Friday, but still expect 5 foot seas over the outer marine zones through Friday evening. Winds over the coastal waters on Friday will be easterly from 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts up to 25 knots possible. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254- 255. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1209069 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 814 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 813 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast remains on track through this morning and into the afternoon and evening hours with dry weather, clear skies, and breezy westerly-northwesterly winds. No major updates to the forecast required at this time. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Dry air continues to fill in behind the front, leaving mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures today. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest as pressure gradients tighten and daytime mixing develops throughout the day. Daytime high temperatures will only get into the low 60s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 60s over northeast Florida. Southeast Georgia could see some overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with northeast Florida dipping into the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Synopsis...Dry weather and below normal temperatures with potential inland frost each morning this weekend. Friday cold air advection continues with high temperatures only in the upper 50s across parts of SE GA to the mid 60s across north- central FL under continued gusty NW winds with gusts 25-30 mph as the local pressure gradient remains elevated between the surface high building eastward across the the western Gulf Coast states and a re-enforcing dry cold front moving offshore of the Carolinas. These highs are about about 8-12 degrees below normal for this time of year. Friday night, elevated winds continue as another surface trough moves offshore of the Carolinas. Cold air advection continues Friday night, with low temperatures falling into the 30s across mainly inland locales to the lower 40s toward the Atlantic coast. These 30 degree temperatures for NE FL Saturday morning will be the first 30s since March of 2024 (JAX and GNV both had lows in the 30s on 3/20/2024). With inland winds in the 5-10 mph range by daybreak Sat morning, wind chills will be the low to mid 30s for most locations. Given elevated Saturday morning around sunrise, frost formation is expected to be patchy in nature and only in wind sheltered areas. Saturday, high temperatures are expected to range in the 60s with less wind as the surface ridge builds farther east across the region, with the ridge centering over the local forecast area Saturday night. With near calm wind, clear skies and continued dry low level air in place, leaned on the cool side of guidance with lows in the mid 30s to possibly a few lower 30s for inland locations. Latest guidance suggests about a 20-30% of a brief inland freeze for our normally cooler inland locales Sunday morning including Folkston to Taylor. Sunday morning around daybreak will also be the better time period for possibly frost formation and continued to indicated `patchy` frost at this time in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Synopsis...Continued dry with a warming trend ensuing early next week. Continued dry weather with a moderating trend in temperatures for the start of next week. Sunday, warmer WSW winds develop as the center of the surface high shifts offshore of the local Atlantic coast, with a ridge axis remaining stretched across the local area through Tuesday. Just above the surface, warmer SW flow develops, which will moderate temperatures back above normal values with highs in the 70s with a continuation of chilly nighttime lows in the upper 40s to 50s given the drier low level airmass in place allowing for good radiational cooling. Anticipate daily sea breezes Mon/Tue which will gradually return low level moisture, and increase late night and early morning fog potential. By Wednesday, the surface ridge begins to shift farther SSE as a frontal zone attempts to drift southward across SE GA, increasing cloudiness across the area but likely keeping rainfall still north of the area through at least mid-week given weak upper level pattern with only weak short wave troughs aloft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as dry air has moved in behind the passing front. Stronger winds are expected today out of the northwest at 10-15 kt, with gusts of 20-25 kt. Wind gusts subside after sunset to speeds of 5-10 kt overnight. Winds will pick up at SSI and CRG around 07-09z to the end of the TAF period with sustained winds 8-10 kt and gusts up to 15-20 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Small Craft Advisory levels are expected today for all area waters through Friday. This morning, gale force winds in the offshore waters north of St. Augustine will drop off shortly after sunrise. Strong northwesterly winds are forecast to continue along with increasing seas through Friday into Saturday morning. Winds will begin to drop off fairly quickly over the weekend. Rip Currents: Low risk of rip current at SE GA beaches through the weekend with NE FL beaches having a low to moderate risk through Friday dropping to low risk over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Colder and drier under gusty WNW winds today trailing a cold front passage. Gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible at times as minimum humidity falls into the 25-30% range for most locations. High daytime dispersion is expected near the Altamaha River basin. Cooler high temperatures Friday and a slight increase in dew points will increase minimum afternoon humidity to 30-40% for most locations under continued gusty NW winds. Elevated fire danger is possible this afternoon for parts of SE GA where minimum RH may near 25%. Otherwise, elevated 1 hr fuel moisture and a low fire danger index limit fire danger concerns today. Conditions are not favorable for fog formation the next several nights. Patchy inland frost is possible Saturday and Sunday mornings - with Sunday morning being the better morning for frost potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 39 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 64 45 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 67 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 67 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 65 40 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 67 41 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1209068 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 644 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure over the region will be slowly shifting to the east through the end of this week. Aloft, the NW flow is expected to persist. All of this should translate to light N/NE winds these next couple of days as the cool/dry air mass remains in place over SE TX. With mostly clear to clear skies, highs today and tomorrow are going to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will run from the up- per 30s to lower 40s across our northern CWA...mid to upper 40s over the central and southern CWA tonight (mid 50s at the beaches). These overnight temperatures should run a couple of degrees warmer for to- morrow night...upper 30s for the Piney Woods, lower and mid 40s over the Brazos Valley to the I-10 corridor, upper 40s for H-town proper/ coastal counties, and the upper 50s along the immediate coast. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure is expected to depart to our east on Saturday. As it does so, southerly flow will return and will begin to transport warmer moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a gradual warming trend across Southeast Texas with the highs going from the low to upper 70s on Saturday to the low to upper 80s by Monday. The global models are suggesting a weak upper level trough skirting the Southern Plains and could potentially bring in a very weak cold front sometime late Monday into early Tuesday. At this time, low level moisture (PWs of around 1 inch or less) and/or forcing may not be sufficient for this front to bring us much rain activity, although some light rain or drizzle isn`t out of the question. What the front could provide for us, however, is a respite in the warming trend and may even cool us down a few degrees Monday night into Tuesday. The high temperatures for Tuesday could range between the low 70s to low 80s. Again, this will all depend on how strong and how far south this front tracks. A stronger upper level trough may push across the Southern Plains sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday and could bring in another, potentially stronger, cold front across Southeast Texas. Model guidance is not in agreement with the timing of this front. Thus, it is currently difficult to pin point exactly how much rain we will receive ahead of the front and how much cooling will occur in the wake of the front. For now, proceeded with the NBM solution for this forecast issuance, which includes slight rain chances for the inland portions starting during the day on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. 24 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 643 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 With high pressure situated over the region, light N/NE to variable winds will prevail through this TAF package (2-7kts). Otherwise VFR. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Winds and seas will continue today as high pressure moves across Texas. Light offshore winds will persist through Friday. Onshore flow will return on Saturday and increase Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens. Caution flags may be needed. Light onshore flow is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by another increase in wind speeds on Wednesday ahead of the next cold FROPA - potentially moving across Southeast Texas sometime Thursday. Confidence for the timing of this cold front is very low at this time due to differences in the forecast models. Therefore, some adjustments to the timing of the increased wind speeds and rain chances could occur during the next few days. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209067 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 656 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across the area today and will remain the primary feature through early next week. A cold front could approach the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Surface analysis shows an area of low pressure situated across the Great Lakes region, with cool dry air building in across the forecast area. Winds will be in a bit of a lull for much of the morning, before increasing and becoming gusty this afternoon ahead of a reinforcing cold front approaching from the northwest. Frequent gusts into the 20-25 mph range are expected this afternoon. Today will be a much cooler day, with temperatures approximately 15 degrees colder than they were yesterday. Look for highs in the low 60s, though some interior locations might not get out of the upper 50s. Tonight: W winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 30s inland and lot to mid 40s along the coast. We expect enough overnight wind to prevent frost development. Lake Winds: Winds across Lake Moultrie are past their peak for the morning, and will likely be diminished a bit through the morning with speeds around 15 knots. Then this afternoon and this evening we will see another surge as a reinforcing cold front approaches and passes through. Another round of sustained winds in the 15-25 knot range with frequent gusts up to around 30 knots can be expected. Therefore we have opted to keep the Lake Wind Advisory going even through the lull, and it remains in effect until 11 pm. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep mid level low will meander over the Northeast on Friday, before exiting on Saturday. The pattern will then flatten and be replaced by weak ridging by the end of the weekend. At the surface, low pressure will finally exit allowing high pressure to continue to build over the local area. Gusty winds are expected on Friday, then the pressure gradient eases through the weekend. Gusts over Lake Moultrie could approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria Friday into Friday night, but at this point remains just shy. Otherwise, expect full sunshine with moderating temperatures. It will be coolest on Friday when highs top out in the mid to upper 50s (~10 degrees below climo). By Sunday, temperatures will recover to the upper 60s. Lows will be chilly, falling solidly into the 30s inland of the coast. Attention then turns to the potential for frost over far interior areas. For Friday night/Saturday morning, while temps are supportive, winds could stay too elevated for widespread frost development. Certainly not out of the question to see patchy frost in more sheltered locations. For Saturday night/Sunday morning, we did go on the cooler side of guidance with ideal radiational cooling conditions in place. As winds are expected to go calm, this could lead to a higher threat for frost. Will continue to monitor trends. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to extend into the area early next week, although a cold front could approach during the latter half of the period. Still some uncertainties in the evolution of that feature, whether it actually passes through or stalls, so changes to the forecast are likely. At this point, no rain is in the forecast. Temperatures will be above climo for Monday and Tuesday then possibly cooler for Wednesday if fropa occurs. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Friday. Winds become gusty again this afternoon with frequent gusts into the 20-25 knot range expected. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty west winds are expected Friday. && .MARINE... Today through tonight: The peak of the morning winds has passed and we have let the Gale Warning for the outer Georgia waters expire. Winds across all the waters could actually drop below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through midday, before ramping back up this afternoon through the early morning hours as a reinforcing cold front passes through. Expect west-northwest winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts to around 30 knots through the overnight. Friday through Tuesday: Gusty west winds will persist over the coastal waters Friday into Friday night, maintaining the ongoing Small Craft Advisories. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts should fall below 25 kt Friday evening so the Advisory is scheduled to come down at 23z/6 PM. Conditions will improve on Saturday, with winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Tuesday. Winds eventually turn southwest with speeds generally 15 knots or less and seas 1-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209066 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 606 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday Night) Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 A reinforcing frontal boundary will move south across the area this afternoon and this evening with very little fanfare as the airmass over the region is already extremely dry after the passage of the earlier front. Much cooler and even drier high pressure will then build southeast across the region tonight through Friday night. High temperatures today will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 60s across the entire area. Much colder tonight with lows over most of the interior dropping down into the mid to upper 30s. Some patchy frost possible tonight along and north of the Highway 84 corridor. or. Even cooler on Friday and Friday night as the center of the high pressure moves closer to our area. Highs on Friday will range from the mid to upper 50s over most of interior southeast MS and southern AL, with lower 60s over the southern MS counties and the coastal counties of AL and northwest FL. Lows Friday night may fall to near the freezing mark over our northernmost counties, with mid to upper 30s all the way south to around the I-10 corridor. Generally expect lower 40s south of I-10, except for some mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast. Patchy frost possible away from the coast over most of the interior counties Friday night with nearly calm winds and good radiational cooling. With the high pressure and very dry air building in, mostly clear skies and no precipitation expected through Friday night. DS/12 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure will move east Saturday into Sunday with a light southerly flow developing. This will allow moisture levels to increase along with moderating temps ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will stall north of the area on Tuesday. However with the increasing moisture and lift from the upper shortwave, a few showers will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s warming into the mid/upper 70s by Monday. /13 MARINE... Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Strong northwesterly winds will continue over most of the marine area today, tonight and possibly into early Friday, persisting longest over the offshore Gulf waters where near gale force gusts will be possible at times through tonight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, occasionally up to 9 feet over the Gulf waters through the period with moderate to choppy conditions on bays. These conditions will continue to pose hazardous conditions to small craft through early Friday. Winds and seas begin to relax by late Friday, with light northerly flow expected by Saturday. Light flow, somewhat variable at times, is then expected to continue into the early part of next week. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 40 62 38 65 43 73 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 63 45 61 43 64 48 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 67 48 63 46 66 51 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 37 58 35 64 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 37 59 34 64 37 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 61 36 56 33 60 35 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 37 63 35 68 38 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1209065 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 656 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR, rain-free conditions and north-northwest winds around 8-12 knots with gusts to 22 knots prevail at all terminals through the period. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Skies have gradually been clearing out as drier and cooler air filters in across the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, an upper level trough pushes into the Northeast while upper level ridge builds behind it and into the region. Tight gradient will bring northwesterly winds across the peninsula through Friday bringing hazardous marine conditions and high risk of rip currents. Additionally, high and low temperatures are expected to drop over 10 degrees tonight and Friday. Highs today will struggle to get above 70 degrees, especially along the Nature Coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 High pressure builds over the next few days with gusty winds pushing behind front. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday morning. A High Risk of Rip Currents continues into Saturday evening. Marine conditions gradually improve through the weekend pleasant boating conditions expected by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 68 54 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 53 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 47 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 70 58 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 60 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1209064 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 704 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore of the Delmarva coast early this morning. Meanwhile, several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Blustery and much cooler weather conditions behind a strong cold front. NW winds average 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph (highest coastal areas). - Remaining mainly dry, aside from a few showers over the northern neck and the eastern shore. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night over interior northeast NC and portions of the western Tidewater area. Latest analysis reveals a potent upper level low centered over the Great Lakes at sunrise this morning. At the surface, a strong ~996mb sfc low was analyzed over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with a secondary low now just offshore of the NJ coast. The strong trough and its associated sfc low will pivot SSE into the northern mid-Atlantic through tonight, with the sfc low near New York City becoming the primary sfc low tonight, as it retrogrades west into SE NY towards the wobbling upper low. There will be multiple shortwaves transversing SE along the trough, thereby allowing multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. The first (and weakest) of these shortwaves push through this afternoon and this evening. This allows the area to start drying out today on breezy WNW winds. Another surge of gusty winds to 20 to 30 mph are expected, along with some sct mid- level clouds by afternoon and perhaps a few showers (or sprinkles) this evening along the eastern shore. Otherwise, expect most of the area to remain dry through tonight. Highs only top out in the low to mid 50s. Winds do decouple a bit inland later tonight, which will make for a stark temperature contrast between inland areas and the coast. Look for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s along the coast. This will put a narrow stripe of counties still active in the frost-freeze program at lows right around freezing. Have gone ahead and added these counties from Bertie/Northampton and Gates NC up to James City in a Freeze Watch for tonight. Either way, look for wind chills in the 20s for most of the area overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - More widespread showers are possible on Friday. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area Friday morning into early afternoon. The Sfc low over E PA dives back SE tomorrow, and with the upper low diving into the northern mid-Atlantic, this will send the second shortwave through the region Friday. This feature looks to be a bit stronger, providing a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid upper 40s across the Piedmont and lower 50s along the SE coast. Have increased PoPs into likely range for the northern neck and eastern shore for showers from midday Friday into Friday night. Have also included some low end PoPs for along and to the S of the I-64 corridor into RIC metro and Hampton Roads. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. However, that moisture layer is mostly within the DGZ and could easily result in a few reports of graupel or even a few snowflakes mixing in over northern portions of the area Friday morning into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Drying out Friday evening/night, but remaining breezy and partly to mostly cloudy early with partial clearing late. Early morning low temperatures not quite as cold in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The upper level trough will begin to move out of the area into the Gulf of Maine Saturday, as upper ridging builds to the east. This will allow a milder day with highs warming back into the middle 50s to around 60. The breezy conditions gradually relax late Saturday into Sunday as the trough moves out of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures next week are expected gradually moderate each day through midweek, as the high moves off the coast and upper ridging crests overhead Monday and Tuesday. Highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Rain chances return to the forecast next Wednesday ahead of the next system arriving from the NW. Will note, by the middle of next week the ensembles do disagree with the placement and strength of the next system. However, they do agree on a potential system and Pops remain tn the forecast and stay between 15-25%. The surface low slowly shifts into the Gulf of Main on Saturday afternoon and night. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... The well-advertised strong cold front swept across the region earlier this morning, bringing gusty winds, showers and variable CIGs to area terminals. Conditions continue to gradually improve in the wake of the front, and CIGs have returned to VFR across area terminals. Expect the VFR CIGs persist through the period, with NW winds to average 10-15 kt w/gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early evening. Sct aftn CU/Stratocu clouds are expected, but CIGs should remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. Outlook: Additional upper disturbances pinwheeling through will maintain gusty W-NW winds Fri- Sat. Winds will gust to 25-30 KT on Friday, before gradually diminishing Saturday into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected across N/NE sections of the area (KSBY) Friday aftn/Fri night. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters through Friday afternoon. - Gale Watches have been issued for all local waters from late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front E of the local waters with an occluded low over the Great Lakes and a secondary low off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds were NW 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, and Lower James River. As such, Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs. Winds gradually diminish this morning as the pressure gradient weakens, eventually becoming W this afternoon. A period of potentially sub-SCA conditions is possible across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound later this morning into this afternoon with W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters. However, W winds increase back to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this afternoon into tonight behind a secondary cold front. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible across the coastal waters and lower bay with this surge, however, wind probs for gusts of 34 kt are <40% (lower for zonal averages). Additionally, the surge looks to be brief (~3 hrs). As such, will refrain from issuing Gale Warnings for this surge at this time. Winds remain elevated (although trending lower) into Fri before a trough moves through, reinforcing the CAA yet again. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are high for this surge with probs approaching 100% across the coastal waters and 70% across the Ches Bay. As such, expect W winds to increase to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across all local waters late Fri afternoon through Fri night. Therefore, Gale Watches have been issued for late Fri afternoon through Fri night. SCA conditions continue Sat before winds gradually diminish Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. Waves and seas of 3-5 ft and 4-7 ft (locally higher across the NC coastal waters) respectively continue to be possible early this morning. Waves subside to 2-4 ft later this morning with seas remaining elevated into Sat night. Another period of 4-5 ft waves is possible with the Fri afternoon into night surge. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ089-090-092-093-096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630>638-650- 652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1209063 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 542 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Picture perfect weather can be expected across South Texas the next few days with clear skies, seasonable temperatures, light winds and low humidity. A mid level ridge will nose into the region during this short term period maintaining the dry and quiet weather pattern. In fact PWAT values will hover around 0.25" which is 2 standard deviations below normal. Although fuel moisture and afternoon relative humidity values are low, the light and varaible winds, will limit the fire danger. We`ll see max temps today in the mid 70s. Friday`s highs will be about 5 degrees warmer with a slight increase in humidity due to the weak onshore flow. Not anticipating any fog formation tonight but there is an increasing risk for fog late Friday Night/Saturday morning given the increased boundary layer moisture and light onshore winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Not much change in the long term period as a quiet pattern persists through the weekend and early next week. Surface ridging will shift east of the area into the Gulf of Mexico bringing a return to southeast and southerly flow into the region. This will both increase moisture and increase temperatures across South Texas. High temperatures by late weekend and through early next week will be 10+ degrees above normal in the upper 80s to around 90. Mid to late next week looks like our next opportunity to possibly get a front through. All the global models are showing a surface front come through Thursday into Friday, however the mid-level patterns are very different. On Thursday, for instance, the GFS has a zonal pattern while the ECMWF shows troughing west and ridging east and the Canadian is in an opposite phase as the EC. Looks like the pattern should get more active anyway, but details are nothing to key in on yet. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Perfect flying weather today with clear skies and light surface winds for the next 48 hours as weak high pressure resides over South Texas. Included one line VFR TAFs today. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Light and variable winds continue through early Saturday. Onshore flow gradually increases late Saturday into Sunday, becoming moderate and occasionally strong Sunday night. Winds Monday through the middle of next week are expected to remain moderate out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 76 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 45 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 71 60 74 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209062 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 646 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A secondary cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and this front has been ushering in the stronger push of colder weather. Despite full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will still only be in the mid 60s. These will be the coolest temperatures of the Fall season so far. Later tonight, northwest flow continues but it should subside somewhat given the dry and clear conditions. However, ideal radiational cooling conditions aren`t expected given winds remaining elevated overnight. Low temperatures will be much cooler and in the upper 30s across Alabama/Georgia counties and around 40 in our Florida counties. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 At the start of the term, a strong upper level low centering over the Northeast U.S. would have brought an associated cold front through the southeast, reinforcing the cool and dry air that we have been experiencing. Continued northwest flow and PWATs of less than 0.5" will leave us dry for the next several days with cold overnight temperatures for the weekend. Friday`s cold front will arrive during the early morning hours, allowing our afternoon temperatures to remain in the low 60s; and for our AL and GA counties, may struggle to reach 60 degrees. Surface high pressure will fill in behind the front leading to clear skies and light to calm winds during the overnight hours. These conditions will lead to decent radiational cooling and allow for temperatures to fall further into the mid to upper 30s for Friday night into Saturday morning, and again for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wind chills for our AL and GA counties will be around the low to mid-30s. This may lead to cold-weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. We may also experience some patchy frost develop Saturday and Sunday morning, so be sure to protect sensitive plants. As the surface high traverses east across the FL Peninsula over the weekend, temperatures and dew points begin to gradually increase for the upcoming work week. Afternoon temperatures return to the mid and upper 70s, which is around 10 degrees above the climatological norm. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s, which is also above normal for this time of year. Surface winds will become southerly again for the start of the work week, allowing for moisture from the Gulf to advect inland, increasing our dew points to the 60s. PoPs throughout the term remain low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry northwest flow will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Only aviation concerns will be occasional gusts of 20 knots out of the northwest during daytime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue today into tomorrow following a strong cold front that pushed through on Wednesday. Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Recent wetting rains should keep fire weather concerns low despite the breezier and much drier pattern we`ll see on Thursday and Friday. Dispersions will be high this afternoon and remain elevated again on Friday due to elevated northwesterly transport winds and 3 - 5 kft mixing heights. Surface winds will remain elevated around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph this afternoon. Light winds expected over the upcoming weekend which should allow low fire weather concerns to continue. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 42 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209061 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 639 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 - A strong, southward-flowing longshore current is expected at area beaches, along with a moderate risk of rip currents - Significantly cooler, drier air arrives today and lasts into the weekend - Hazardous boating conditions over the local Atlantic waters through Friday, and sensitive fire weather conditions continue into the weekend && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient is strengthening early this morning in the wake of a passing cold front. In response, northwest winds will gradually increase through the morning and into the afternoon. Significantly drier air is also on our doorstep, with GOES-derived PW already indicating PW less than 0.50" pushing into northeast Florida. Temperatures range from the mid 60s north of I-4 to the low 70s along the Treasure Coast. These values will fall quicker into the 50s and 60s through sunrise, while a gradual rebound into the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast by the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times, reaching 20-25 mph. In addition to gusty winds at the coast, a strong, southward- flowing longshore current is forecast to develop at area beaches today. Currents like these can quickly push swimmers into deeper water, making them more susceptible to getting caught in a rip current. Remember to always swim within sight of a lifeguard! Conditions remain breezy at the coast tonight as northwest flow ushers in even cooler air behind a reinforcing cold front. Low temperatures into Friday morning will dip into the mid to upper 40s for most, while coastal locations stay in the low 50s. A 20-30 percent chance for sub-40 degree temperatures exists along and north of I-4, according to the latest 00z HREF probabilities. This Weekend...Drier and cooler than normal conditions will last into the weekend. Friday is another breezy to gusty day with northwest winds 10-15 mph, peaking around 25 mph at times (especially at the coast). Despite plenty of sunshine, daytime highs will struggle to reach the mid and upper 60s Friday and Saturday but return to near normal (mid 70s) on Sunday as high pressure builds over Florida. The coldest morning of the next several, Saturday, will also combine with a light NW breeze to produce wind chills in the upper 30s over a large portion of ECFL. Note that temperatures could dip below 40 degrees briefly across northern Lake and Volusia counties Saturday morning. Monday-Wednesday...A warming trend resumes early next week as zonal mid level flow builds over the central and eastern CONUS. Dry weather continues as moisture fields are slow to recover until later in the week. Light onshore becomes established as daytime highs push into the upper 70s and low 80s. Morning lows Monday will still be in the mid to upper 40s north of I-4, rebounding into the 50s and low 60s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Model output diverges regarding the synoptic pattern over the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which has downstream implications regarding what sensible weather we experience from Thanksgiving Day onward. Right now, we can anticipate near to slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday, along with mostly dry conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...Quickly deteriorating and hazardous boating conditions are forecast through the day as northwesterly winds freshen and build seas. Early this morning, Buoy 41009 was reporting NW winds around 17 kt, gusting 20 to 25 kt. Farther north, Buoy 41117 indicated quickly increasing seas around 6 ft. This northerly wind surge will bring seas up to 4-7 ft nearshore and 8-9 ft offshore later this morning. NW winds 15-20 kt will pick up again after midnight, reaching 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all legs of the adjacent central Florida Atlantic waters (out to 60 nautical miles). Friday-Monday...Hazardous boating is forecast to last through much of Friday, with gradual improvement Friday night into Saturday as winds and seas slowly decrease. 10-14 kt NW flow is anticipated on Saturday, falling below 10 kt for Sunday and Monday. Seas Friday around 5-8 ft in the Gulf Stream fall below 7 ft Saturday morning, decreasing further to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Favorable boating looks to persist through the middle of next week as high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula and local waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy NW winds today, with gusts 20-25kts. Winds will remain elevated overnight around 10kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 45 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 67 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 70 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 68 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 74 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209060 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 645 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore of the Delmarva coast early this morning. Meanwhile, several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Blustery and much cooler weather conditions behind a strong cold front. NW winds average 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph (highest coastal areas). - Remaining mainly dry, aside from a few showers over the northern neck and the eastern shore. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night over interior northeast NC and portions of the western Tidewater area. Latest analysis reveals a potent upper level low centered over the Great Lakes at sunrise this morning. At the surface, a strong ~996mb sfc low was analyzed over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with a secondary low now just offshore of the NJ coast. The strong trough and its associated sfc low will pivot SSE into the northern mid-Atlantic through tonight, with the sfc low near New York City becoming the primary sfc low tonight, as it retrogrades west into SE NY towards the wobbling upper low. There will be multiple shortwaves transversing SE along the trough, thereby allowing multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. The first (and weakest) of these shortwaves push through this afternoon and this evening. This allows the area to start drying out today on breezy WNW winds. Another surge of gusty winds to 20 to 30 mph are expected, along with some sct mid- level clouds by afternoon and perhaps a few showers (or sprinkles) this evening along the eastern shore. Otherwise, expect most of the area to remain dry through tonight. Highs only top out in the low to mid 50s. Winds do decouple a bit inland later tonight, which will make for a stark temperature contrast between inland areas and the coast. Look for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s along the coast. This will put a narrow stripe of counties still active in the frost-freeze program at lows right around freezing. Have gone ahead and added these counties from Bertie/Northampton and Gates NC up to James City in a Freeze Watch for tonight. Either way, look for wind chills in the 20s for most of the area overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - More widespread showers are possible on Friday. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area Friday morning into early afternoon. The Sfc low over E PA dives back SE tomorrow, and with the upper low diving into the northern mid-Atlantic, this will send the second shortwave through the region Friday. This feature looks to be a bit stronger, providing a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid upper 40s across the Piedmont and lower 50s along the SE coast. Have increased PoPs into likely range for the northern neck and eastern shore for showers from midday Friday into Friday night. Have also included some low end PoPs for along and to the S of the I-64 corridor into RIC metro and Hampton Roads. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. However, that moisture layer is mostly within the DGZ and could easily result in a few reports of graupel or even a few snowflakes mixing in over northern portions of the area Friday morning into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Drying out Friday evening/night, but remaining breezy and partly to mostly cloudy early with partial clearing late. Early morning low temperatures not quite as cold in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The upper level trough will begin to move out of the area into the Gulf of Maine Saturday, as upper ridging builds to the east. This will allow a milder day with highs warming back into the middle 50s to around 60. The breezy conditions gradually relax late Saturday into Sunday as the trough moves out of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures next week are expected gradually moderate each day through midweek, as the high moves off the coast and upper ridging crests overhead Monday and Tuesday. Highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Rain chances return to the forecast next Wednesday ahead of the next system arriving from the NW. Will note, by the middle of next week the ensembles do disagree with the placement and strength of the next system. However, they do agree on a potential system and Pops remain tn the forecast and stay between 15-25%. The surface low slowly shifts into the Gulf of Main on Saturday afternoon and night. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Thursday... The well-advertised strong cold front swept across the region earlier this morning, bringing gusty winds, showers and variable CIGs to area terminals. Conditions continue to gradually improve in the wake of the front, and CIGs have returned to VFR across area terminals. Expect the VFR CIGs persist through the period, with NW winds to average 10-15 kt w/gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early evening. Sct aftn CU/Stratocu clouds are expected, but CIGs should remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. Outlook: Additional upper disturbances pinwheeling through will maintain gusty W-NW winds Fri- Sat. Winds will gust to 25-30 KT on Friday, before gradually diminishing Saturday into Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected across N/NE sections of the area (KSBY) Friday aftn/Fri night. && .MARINE... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remains in effect early this morning for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and coastal waters. - Winds remain elevated through Saturday night. - Another period of Gale conditions is increasingly likely late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front E of the local waters with an occluded low over the Great Lakes and a secondary low off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds were NW 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, and Lower James River. As such, Gale Warnings remain in effect until 7 AM for these areas. Winds have diminished to SCA level across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound where Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs. Winds gradually diminish this morning as the pressure gradient weakens, eventually becoming W this afternoon. A period of potentially sub-SCA conditions is possible across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound later this morning into this afternoon with W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters. However, W winds increase back to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this afternoon into tonight behind a secondary cold front. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible across the coastal waters and lower bay with this surge, however, wind probs for gusts of 34 kt are <40% (lower for zonal averages). Additionally, the surge looks to be brief (~3 hrs). As such, will refrain from issuing Gale Warnings for this surge at this time. Winds remain elevated (although trending lower) into Fri before a trough moves through, reinforcing the CAA yet again. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are high for this surge with probs approaching 100% across the coastal waters and 70% across the Ches Bay. As such, expect W winds to increase to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across all local waters late Fri afternoon through Fri night. While chances for Gale conditions late Fri into Fri night are high, will hold off on Gale Watches for now given ongoing Gale Warnings across the same zones for this morning`s surge. However, Gale Watches for late Fri into Fri night will be needed once current Gale Warnings are allowed to expire. SCA conditions continue Sat before winds gradually diminish Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. Waves and seas of 3-5 ft and 4-6 ft (locally higher possible) respectively continue to be possible early this morning. Waves subside to 2-4 ft later this morning with seas remaining elevated into Sat night. Another period of 4-5 ft waves is possible with the Fri afternoon into night surge. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ089-090-092-093-096. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634- 638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633- 635>637. && $$ |
| #1209059 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 524 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Temperatures starting to warm will be the general trend of the short term forecast as the northerly winds will continue to weaken and eventually turn towards the east while remaining light. Thanks to the surface high pressure and a mostly dry environment, chances of rain are expected to be very low. With mostly clear skies, the high temperatures are expected to be mostly in the upper 70s. However some places in the Middle and Lower Valley could get into the lower 80s for highs today. Moving into tonight, the low temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the region. Once again, parts of the Middle and Lower Valley continue to be the exception to the trend where the low temperatures could actually be in the mid 50s. Going into the day for Friday, the pleasant conditions are expected to continue with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds. The high temperatures for Friday are expected to be a bit warmer with most of the high temperatures in the lower 80s. However a few places in the Northern Ranchlands could see high temperatures a bit lower in the upper 70s. As for the hazards along the coast, with the winds and seas continuing the subside during the day the coastal hazards should expire soon. The High Risk of Rip Currents is expected to expire by this evening and the Coastal Flood Advisory is set to expire by 6 AM this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 500 mb high pressure centered off of the west coast of Mexico will be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA during the period. A mid-level flow from the northwest will gradually transition to a more zonal flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Unfortunately, this will also produce gradually warming daytime high and overnight low temperatures, with well above normal values likely. Additionally, periods of a more intense pressure gradient at the surface will lead to increasing winds and building seas, with a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches for Sunday and Monday and again on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through the TAF cycle with mostly clear skies and light northerly winds that will shift more towards the east while remaining light during the period. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 With the winds and seas continuing to come down, mostly favorable conditions are expected for today through Friday. While today will see light northerly winds and low to moderate seas, however by late tonight, the seas will continue to diminish and the northerly winds will shift toward the east. As such, by Friday, there will be light easterly winds and low seas. (Friday Night through Wednesday) A variable pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce period of adverse marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. The best chance for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory will occur Saturday night through Sunday night, and again on Wednesday. Outside of these time periods, light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 57 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 50 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 68 76 70 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 57 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ451-454-455. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209058 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 625 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The first "cool" snap of the season for South Florida will begin as the work week comes to an end thanks to the cold front that passed through the region overnight. A deep layer of northerly winds behind this front will start to usher in a much drier and cooler airmass today, which originates from the backside of a deep mid-level trough covering much of the Eastern US. Skies will start off mostly cloudy to overcast this morning, but rapidly become mostly sunny by the afternoon with breezy northerly winds. High temperatures won`t feel too cool today, ranging from the low to mid 70s over the interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s in SE FL. The start of the cooling trend will be more noticeable tonight, as temperatures fall to the upper 40s around the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Friday will be another mostly sunny day with breezy northerly winds, and high temperatures only climbing into the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 As we move into the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will settle in over the Florida Peninsula allowing for several days of dry and cool air. With the entry of the significantly cooler air mass, this is expected to bring South Florida the coldest overnight lows since last winter. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with the remainder of South FL in the 50s, early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon highs will trend 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normal across a majority of the region. Some locations, to the north of Alligator Alley, may struggle to reach 70 degrees on Saturday. This will be, by far, the coolest day following the passage of the strong cold front earlier this week. Early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift eastward, allowing for low level winds to begin to veer east- northeasterly. With the veering winds and influence of the Atlantic warmth, temperatures will begin to trend warmer and closer to climatological normals with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are expected to remain benign and dry through the through the weekend into the first half of the new week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Low cigs resulting from a front just over the region will result periods of MVFR through the early morning hours. Conditions will improve later this morning once the front pushes south of the area. Winds from the NW may become gusty later today behind the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will develop across all local waters today as northerly winds increase to around 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front that passed through overnight. Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet over the Gulf waters, and 5 to 8 feet over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will gradually improve by this weekend as the northerly winds lighten and seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A high rip current risk continues along the Gulf beaches today, and will remain elevated on Friday. Along the Atlantic, there will be a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beaches today, which will remain elevated on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 80 51 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 80 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 81 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 77 53 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 53 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 74 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209056 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 633 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A potent cold front has moved across the area overnight. Another reinforcing cold front will move through today followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 6:30 AM Thursday...We`re now in the post frontal air mass with chilly temps in the 40s and gusty NW winds. Gusty winds will continue as a reinforcing front passes later today. The combination of gusty winds and minimum RHs around 30-35% for inland areas will result in elevated fire weather conditions (see the Fire Weather section below). Highs will be seasonable in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Strong CAA throughout the day and ample radiative cooling overnight will cause temps to fall to nearly freezing. It`s also not out of the question for some well- sheltered areas to dip into the 20s. For these reasons, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Martin, Pitt, Greene, Lenoir, Duplin, and inland Onslow counties. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Breezy and cold Friday - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving. Friday - Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. After a chilly start to the day, highs on Friday will struggle to reach the low 50s. By Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is <10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now. Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk of showers. Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low-level flow to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70 once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well. Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow, medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday, followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days. For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less eventful scenario. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 6:15 AM Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. We are now in the post-frontal air mass that initiated the ongoing gusty NW winds. The gradient will remain pinched, so these gusts up to 20 kt will continue through the day as a reinforcing front approaches and crosses the area this evening. Skies will remain mostly clear until this evening`s FROPA, which will introduce a few clouds around 5-6 kft. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gusty west to northwest winds Friday into Saturday - Sub VFR CIGs possible Friday A potent upper level wave will move through on Friday, leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds Friday into Saturday. During this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. A period of sub-VFR CIGs may develop during peak heating Friday, with a few SHRA not completely out of the question. VFR conditions then look to prevail Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 3:40 AM Thursday...Westerly winds over the coastal waters are currently gusting to 30-40 kts in response to the strong cold front that moved through overnight. The coastal waters will continue to gust to 25-30 kts through today and as a reinforcing front moves through later this evening, gusts will briefly jump to 30-35 kt. Overnight, the gusts will drop back to 25-30 kt. Seas will respond by increasing to 4-6 ft today. Conditions will improve across the inland rivers this morning, but unfavorable winds and seas will continue across the remaining rivers, sounds, and coastal waters through the end of the week. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gale Watch issued for portions of the ENC waters Friday evening into Saturday morning A potent upper level wave will move through the region on Friday, likely leading to another surge of strong west to northwest winds Friday evening into Saturday morning. During this time, guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale-force gusts. Given the consistent signal, we have issued a Gale Watch for a portion of the ENC waters where confidence is the highest. An expansion of the watch is possible if the current signal holds. Winds will finally begin to lay down by late in the weekend. The building winds on Friday will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday. Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 4 AM Thursday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible today. Inland min RH values will fall to 30-35% and westerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM Thursday... Coastal gauges showed a bump up in soundside water levels associated with the passage of last night`s cold front. Water levels have since fallen back down some, but remain slightly elevated. Additional westerly surges of wind later today and again Friday into Saturday should allow water levels to continue to remain elevated into Saturday, with minor coastal flooding still appearing possible. Of note, forecast guidance has trended towards a longer period of gale- force winds Friday evening into early Saturday morning, and this may be the main opportunity for 1-2 ft AGL of inundation for soundside areas favored in westerly flow (ie. Manteo south through Hatteras Village). && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ029-044-079-090-091-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-135-150- 152-154-156-230-231. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1209057 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 637 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Colder end to the week expected behind a strong cold front, possibly leading to frost or even freezing conditions inland each night. High pressure will move off the coast early next week with warmer temperatures expected. A weaker cold front could move through toward mid week. && .UPDATE... Only notable changes are to better align temps and dewpoints with their current observations as some locations are reporting considerably lower values than expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong cold front has moved offshore early this morning with gusty NW winds and dew points mainly in the 30s across the region. Expect these winds to slow down late tonight into early this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. After sunrise, the growing boundary layer (expected to reach up to around 850mb at peak heating) will tap into faster winds aloft and allow for gusty west winds up to around 20-25 kts to develop around midday and continue through the afternoon. High temps will struggle to reach 60F amidst persistent cold advection and a robust subsidence inversion. With the loss of heating, gusty winds driven by vertical mixing will subside late this afternoon into this evening. However, another surge of WNW flow with even drier dew points behind a secondary cold front is expected to push in between 23-04Z this evening, which should bring some temporary gusty winds back into the mix, although speeds will be less than during the day. A weakening pressure gradient will allow for winds to decrease during the latter half of the night, and with clear skies in place, temperatures have the potential to drop to around the freezing mark, particularly across the northern tier of counties in our CWA. Therefore, a Freeze Watch has been issued to account for this possibility. Dew points depressions should be large enough to preclude widespread frost, but preferred areas near a water source or irrigated land may be able to yield frost due to locally higher dew points. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Dry w/ below normal temperatures *Frost/freeze conditions possible inland Fri/Sat nights Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: General troughing will prevail through Friday night with high pressure returning thereafter. Temperatures will stay below normal through the period with highs only in the lower to mid 50s Friday and lower 60s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s away from the coast each night, possibly near freezing in spots. Such temperatures could support frost as well, although there is some uncertainty regarding temps, humidities and winds. Also, should note that the issuance of Freeze Watches/Warnings and Frost Advisories will be predicated on whether freezing temperatures occur tonight which would end the growing season in these areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: *Warming trend early in the week w/ above normal temps starting Mon *Cold front could bring cooler temps and a few showers toward mid week Confidence: *Moderate Details: High pressure will be shifting offshore bringing moderating temps and moisture levels. A cold front looks to approach toward mid week, possibly moving into and/or through the area as early as Tuesday. Moisture and forcing appear weak so not expecting much rainfall with this feature, although some showers will be possible. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. After sunrise, a growing boundary layer will promote a return of breezy west winds at all terminals with gustiness returning around midday. Wind gusts are expected to reach around 20-25 kts during the afternoon as the boundary layer reaches up to around 850mb. Winds will relax somewhat after sunset, but remain steady westerly. A brief period of gusty winds may occur after 00Z as a secondary cold front pushes through with a surge of WNW winds arriving behind it. Winds will gradually slacken overnight and may even go calm towards daybreak. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through the period as high pressure maintains control. Gusty winds will be the only concern on Friday and Saturday afternoons. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Breezy NW winds will gradually subside this morning and back to westerly as the pressure gradient weakens and a weak surface ridge passes through. Winds and gustiness increase again this afternoon and veer to WNW this evening as another surge of cold advection pushes in. Seas will be dominated by wind waves with 2-4 ft waves temporarily subsiding this morning and early afternoon before rebounding to 3-5 ft this evening as a result of the increase in winds later in the day. Some 6 ft waves may be found in outer portions of the coastal waters near 20nmi offshore of Cape Fear during the first half of the night before gradually subsiding thereafter. Friday through Monday...A tight pressure gradient and cold advection will keep winds/seas elevated through Friday night and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this period. High pressure will then build into the area this weekend leading to a relaxation of the pressure gradient and thus improving marine conditions. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ087-096-105. SC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for SCZ017-023-024. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209055 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 619 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure area spreads welcomed steady light to moderate rain today, before tapering to intermittent rain showers tonight into early Friday. Rain could mix with slushy wet snow above 1500 feet elevation tonight but no wintry impacts are expected. Another round of steady light rain moves through eastern New England Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure slowly progresses into the Maritimes for the weekend, with gusty northwest winds and more clouds than sun are anticipated. Dry weather then returns for Monday before an unsettled weather pattern develops again for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today The forecast for today can be summed up in one word. WET. A much needed of soaking of rain for southern New England today as an area of low-pressure meanders off the south coast of southern New England before retrograding north and west over New York overnight. Showers begin moving into western MA/CT during the 5-7am time frame before becoming a steady moderate rain between 7 and 10 am. Showers likely don`t reach the eastern areas until after 8am, becoming a moderate steady rain between 10am and noon. Expect periods of moderate rainfall to persist right through this evening with increasing winds out of the east from 10 to 15 mph. Rain and clouds keep temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Tonight Steady moderate rain continues through about midnight before shower activity begins to wane as the associated surface low-pressure circulations retrogrades west into eastern New York. While widespread shower activity will come to an end, broad cyclonic flow aloft may continue to support a few lingering showers into the pre-dawn hours. Winds gradually shift to the south/southwest by sunrise tomorrow. Low temps bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Can`t rule out a few snow showers at the higher elevations of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills, but we would not expect any accumulation. Tomorrow Generally a cool/cloudy unsettled day tomorrow as a broad upper- level low meanders over The Northeast. We should dry out for a few hours in the morning before showers redevelop by late morning/early afternoon. This will occur as the upper-low begins to shift east over The Atlantic Waters. Shower activity won`t be as widespread and persistent compared to what is expected today, but an additional tenth to quarter of an inch can be expected mainly east of I-495. Temperatures will be close to normal again in the upper 40s/low 50s. Southerly winds gradually become southeasterly/easterly again by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, damp and overcast Fri night, with steady rains breaking out in the coastal plain. * Gusty NW winds this weekend, with more clouds on Sat along with off-and-on showers. Seasonable temps but the winds will make it feel cooler. * Dry for Monday, but turning more unsettled into midweek. Details: Friday Night: Cloudy, damp and unsettled conditions for Southern New England continue into Fri night with vertically-stacked circulation continuing to meander around western New England/southern NY vicinity. However there still looks to be a round of steadier light rains which develop/rotate NNW from the southern waters into eastern MA, the Cape and the Islands. Looking at GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble members, there is a significant enough majority of members which keep this secondary burst of steadier rains into the MA/RI coastal plain with lighter intermittent precip over western MA/CT. However QPF amts are still pretty variable; while QPF amts are more commonly in the quarter to half inch range in the coastal plain thru Fri night, there are a minority of members up to 3/4ths an inch. By early Sat AM, this band of steadier rains should shift NNE into coastal ME/NH as the broader upper level low begins to pull offshore. The Weekend: Ensembles continue to trend toward a slower NE departure of the upper-level low and its cold pocket of air aloft for the weekend. Thus a trend toward cloudier conditions for Sat with off-and-on light showers, with better chances in eastern and northern MA, Cape and Islands. Less cloud cover in general for Sunday, with more in/around the terrain but with drier conditions. Highs on Sat in the 40s to around 50, and with a pretty strong NWly gradient flow and cloud cover, lows may only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. With less cloud cover, highs Sun in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s Sun night. The cooler temperatures aloft and a robust NW gradient flow will also contribute to rather blustery to gusty NW winds through the weekend. Model soundings also continue to show mixing up to about 900 mb on Sat, and slightly higher around 850 mb for Sun with a little less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. For Sat, NW gusts could reach into the 25 to 30 mph range during the daytime hrs. Strongest 925 mb jet of 35-40 kt moves thru Sat night into early on Sun, and we should still realize gusts around 20-25 mph into the evening for most areas, but could punch up to around 35-45 mph over the Berkshires, hills in Worcester County as well as the Cape and Islands. Still see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for Sunday thru the early afternoon, then beginning to subside late in the day as gradient starts to relax and low level jet core shifts offshore. Potential for gale headlines for the waters, although over land, confidence in gusts reaching Advisory levels is lower but could be possible if we mix deeper. Will reassess gusts as we get into the mesoscale model forecast horizon. Monday: Still looking at pretty tranquil weather conditions for Mon with weak shortwave ridging aloft and modest SW winds allowing for highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night through Wednesday Night: A more active weather pattern is indicated by most of the ensembles into the early to middle part of next week, as slow-evolving trough energy circulating over the West Coast/Pac NW begins to eject eastward off the Rockies. At least one frontal system moves in during this period, around the Mon night/Tue timefame, although there are still significant differences in strength with this potential system. Forecast confidence is still on the low side in this period and stayed fairly close to NBM forecasts for this period until those differences shake out. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today: Moderate confidence. 3-5 SM RA spreads across all airports early this AM, which continues into early tonight. Rain will become increasingly wind-driven as E winds increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the E MA coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue, though ceilings likely to dance between 800-1500 ft most of the day. Took a pessimistic approach with the TAFs indicating IFR, however there could be MVFR intervals in between but difficult to pinpoint a timing. Tonight: Moderate confidence. Widespread 3-6 SM steady RA early tonight trends to more of an intermittent -SHRA or even -DZ between 00-06z, earliest south and later north. Steadier light rain likely to continue at BAF/BDL. Improvement in ceilings toward OVC MVFR interior, and become BKN/OVC VFR over eastern/southeast New England. Winds start E around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, though will become SE/S around 10-14 kt with lesser gusts to around 20 kt. Friday: Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings with periods of -RA interior CT/MA, BKN/OVC VFR ceilings with initially dry wx eastern airports. Later in the afternoon a band of rain moves northward from the ocean and spreads across eastern MA/RI, exact timing uncertain but likely not sooner than 18z. SE to S winds around 7-14 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR/MVFR with 3-6 SM RA developing around ~12-13z. Cigs could flip between IFR-MVFR levels frequently today. Wind-driven rain on ENE/E winds around 15 kt today with gusts 20-25 kt. RA tapers off around 03z to a intermittent light -SHRA, with winds becoming SE around 10-13 kt. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR-MVFR w/ 3-6 SM RA developing around ~08-10z. Steady light to moderate RA continues thru about 02z before lightening up. E winds around 10 kt today, becoming SE tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday Conditions deteriorate over the coastal waters today as an area of low-pressure moves over the south coastal waters. Seas build to 6 to 8 feet by the mid-afternoon hours with moderate easterly winds gusting to 30 knots. A few gale force gusts may be possible over the eastern marine zones near the midnight hour, but generally expecting gusts to stay in the SCY range. We should see improving conditions during during the day Friday, but still expect 5 foot seas over the outer marine zones through Friday evening. Winds over the coastal waters on Friday will be easterly from 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts up to 25 knots possible. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1209053 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 611 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Dry air continues to fill in behind the front, leaving mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures today. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest as pressure gradients tighten and daytime mixing develops throughout the day. Daytime high temperatures will only get into the low 60s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 60s over northeast Florida. Southeast Georgia could see some overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with northeast Florida dipping into the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Synopsis...Dry weather and below normal temperatures with potential inland frost each morning this weekend. Friday cold air advection continues with high temperatures only in the upper 50s across parts of SE GA to the mid 60s across north- central FL under continued gusty NW winds with gusts 25-30 mph as the local pressure gradient remains elevated between the surface high building eastward across the the western Gulf Coast states and a re-enforcing dry cold front moving offshore of the Carolinas. These highs are about about 8-12 degrees below normal for this time of year. Friday night, elevated winds continue as another surface trough moves offshore of the Carolinas. Cold air advection continues Friday night, with low temperatures falling into the 30s across mainly inland locales to the lower 40s toward the Atlantic coast. These 30 degree temperatures for NE FL Saturday morning will be the first 30s since March of 2024 (JAX and GNV both had lows in the 30s on 3/20/2024). With inland winds in the 5-10 mph range by daybreak Sat morning, wind chills will be the low to mid 30s for most locations. Given elevated Saturday morning around sunrise, frost formation is expected to be patchy in nature and only in wind sheltered areas. Saturday, high temperatures are expected to range in the 60s with less wind as the surface ridge builds farther east across the region, with the ridge centering over the local forecast area Saturday night. With near calm wind, clear skies and continued dry low level air in place, leaned on the cool side of guidance with lows in the mid 30s to possibly a few lower 30s for inland locations. Latest guidance suggests about a 20-30% of a brief inland freeze for our normally cooler inland locales Sunday morning including Folkston to Taylor. Sunday morning around daybreak will also be the better time period for possibly frost formation and continued to indicated `patchy` frost at this time in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Synopsis...Continued dry with a warming trend ensuing early next week. Continued dry weather with a moderating trend in temperatures for the start of next week. Sunday, warmer WSW winds develop as the center of the surface high shifts offshore of the local Atlantic coast, with a ridge axis remaining stretched across the local area through Tuesday. Just above the surface, warmer SW flow develops, which will moderate temperatures back above normal values with highs in the 70s with a continuation of chilly nighttime lows in the upper 40s to 50s given the drier low level airmass in place allowing for good radiational cooling. Anticipate daily sea breezes Mon/Tue which will gradually return low level moisture, and increase late night and early morning fog potential. By Wednesday, the surface ridge begins to shift farther SSE as a frontal zone attempts to drift southward across SE GA, increasing cloudiness across the area but likely keeping rainfall still north of the area through at least mid-week given weak upper level pattern with only weak short wave troughs aloft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as dry air has moved in behind the passing front. Stronger winds are expected today out of the northwest at 10-15 kt, with gusts of 20-25 kt. Wind gusts subside after sunset to speeds of 5-10 kt overnight. Winds will pick up at SSI and CRG around 07-09z to the end of the TAF period with sustained winds 8-10 kt and gusts up to 15-20 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Small Craft Advisory levels are expected today for all area waters through Friday. This morning, gale force winds in the offshore waters north of St. Augustine will drop off shortly after sunrise. Strong northwesterly winds are forecast to continue along with increasing seas through Friday into Saturday morning. Winds will begin to drop off fairly quickly over the weekend. Rip Currents: Low risk of rip current at SE GA beaches through the weekend with NE FL beaches having a low to moderate risk through Friday dropping to low risk over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Colder and drier under gusty WNW winds today trailing a cold front passage. Gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible at times as minimum humidity falls into the 25-30% range for most locations. High daytime dispersion is expected near the Altamaha River basin. Cooler high temperatures Friday and a slight increase in dew points will increase minimum afternoon humidity to 30-40% for most locations under continued gusty NW winds. Elevated fire danger is possible this afternoon for parts of SE GA where minimum RH may near 25%. Otherwise, elevated 1 hr fuel moisture and a low fire danger index limit fire danger concerns today. Conditions are not favorable for fog formation the next several nights. Patchy inland frost is possible Saturday and Sunday mornings - with Sunday morning being the better morning for frost potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 38 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 45 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 64 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 64 40 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 41 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ474. && $$ |
| #1209051 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday Night) Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 A reinforcing frontal boundary will move south across the area this afternoon and this evening with very little fanfare as the airmass over the region is already extremely dry after the passage of the earlier front. Much cooler and even drier high pressure will then build southeast across the region tonight through Friday night. High temperatures today will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 60s across the entire area. Much colder tonight with lows over most of the interior dropping down into the mid to upper 30s. Some patchy frost possible tonight along and north of the Highway 84 corridor. or. Even cooler on Friday and Friday night as the center of the high pressure moves closer to our area. Highs on Friday will range from the mid to upper 50s over most of interior southeast MS and southern AL, with lower 60s over the southern MS counties and the coastal counties of AL and northwest FL. Lows Friday night may fall to near the freezing mark over our northernmost counties, with mid to upper 30s all the way south to around the I-10 corridor. Generally expect lower 40s south of I-10, except for some mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast. Patchy frost possible away from the coast over most of the interior counties Friday night with nearly calm winds and good radiational cooling. With the high pressure and very dry air building in, mostly clear skies and no precipitation expected through Friday night. DS/12 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure will move east Saturday into Sunday with a light southerly flow developing. This will allow moisture levels to increase along with moderating temps ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will stall north of the area on Tuesday. However with the increasing moisture and lift from the upper shortwave, a few showers will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s warming into the mid/upper 70s by Monday. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 438 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Strong northwesterly winds will continue over most of the marine area today, tonight and possibly into early Friday, persisting longest over the offshore Gulf waters where near gale force gusts will be possible at times through tonight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, occasionally up to 9 feet over the Gulf waters through the period with moderate to choppy conditions on bays. These conditions will continue to pose hazardous conditions to small craft through early Friday. Winds and seas begin to relax by late Friday, with light northerly flow expected by Saturday. Light flow, somewhat variable at times, is then expected to continue into the early part of next week. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 40 62 38 65 43 73 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 63 45 61 43 64 48 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 67 48 63 46 66 51 72 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 37 58 35 64 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 37 59 34 64 37 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 61 36 56 33 60 35 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 37 63 35 68 38 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1209050 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:27 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 415 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure over the region will be slowly shifting to the east through the end of this week. Aloft, the NW flow is expected to persist. All of this should translate to light N/NE winds these next couple of days as the cool/dry air mass remains in place over SE TX. With mostly clear to clear skies, highs today and tomorrow are going to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will run from the up- per 30s to lower 40s across our northern CWA...mid to upper 40s over the central and southern CWA tonight (mid 50s at the beaches). These overnight temperatures should run a couple of degrees warmer for to- morrow night...upper 30s for the Piney Woods, lower and mid 40s over the Brazos Valley to the I-10 corridor, upper 40s for H-town proper/ coastal counties, and the upper 50s along the immediate coast. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure is expected to depart to our east on Saturday. As it does so, southerly flow will return and will begin to transport warmer moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a gradual warming trend across Southeast Texas with the highs going from the low to upper 70s on Saturday to the low to upper 80s by Monday. The global models are suggesting a weak upper level trough skirting the Southern Plains and could potentially bring in a very weak cold front sometime late Monday into early Tuesday. At this time, low level moisture (PWs of around 1 inch or less) and/or forcing may not be sufficient for this front to bring us much rain activity, although some light rain or drizzle isn`t out of the question. What the front could provide for us, however, is a respite in the warming trend and may even cool us down a few degrees Monday night into Tuesday. The high temperatures for Tuesday could range between the low 70s to low 80s. Again, this will all depend on how strong and how far south this front tracks. A stronger upper level trough may push across the Southern Plains sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday and could bring in another, potentially stronger, cold front across Southeast Texas. Model guidance is not in agreement with the timing of this front. Thus, it is currently difficult to pin point exactly how much rain we will receive ahead of the front and how much cooling will occur in the wake of the front. For now, proceeded with the NBM solution for this forecast issuance, which includes slight rain chances for the inland portions starting during the day on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure settling in, giving SKC and light, fairly variable winds throughout. Winds should be generally more northerly than anything overnight, backing to be more northwesterly mid-day, and west/west-southwest by evening (before going to calm after sunset, anyway). && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Winds and seas will continue today as high pressure moves across Texas. Light offshore winds will persist through Friday. Onshore flow will return on Saturday and increase Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens. Caution flags may be needed. Light onshore flow is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by another increase in wind speeds on Wednesday ahead of the next cold FROPA - potentially moving across Southeast Texas sometime Thursday. Confidence for the timing of this cold front is very low at this time due to differences in the forecast models. Therefore, some adjustments to the timing of the increased wind speeds and rain chances could occur during the next few days. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209049 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 355 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 It`s been a chilly night for most of the region with some locations in the upper 30s to lower 40s by 8z. Temps will likely continue to fall a few more degrees but likely slowly as winds are still around 25-30kts at 1k ft according to KHDC VWP. They next 3 days will be on the cool side before we begin a slow moderation for the 2nd half of the weekend and into Thanksgiving week. But in the short term the forecast focus is on temps. Amplified pattern aloft with a l/w trough over the eastern CONUS and high pressure at the sfc driving south through the Plains will remain in place through Saturday morning. This is setting up nicely for a few days of slightly below normal temps with Saturday likely being the coldest morning of the season so far. With the sfc high still centered off to our ENE winds havenb`t completely decoupled and winds just off the deck are still blowing pretty good. Despite the low dewpoints and clear skies this is hurting the cooling off potential this morning and with a reinforcing front overnight tonight with much the same setup morning lows tomorrow morning will likely be fairly similar to this morning. However, Saturday morning should be a different story. High pressure will continue to build south through the Lower MS Valley all day Friday and Friday night sitting right over the area Saturday morning. This should allow for a much lighter wind field. Combine that with the low dewpoints and clear skies and we will have a rather decent radiational cooling setup finally. In addition temps will have a cooler jumping off point making it easier to drop further in the evening. With that we continue to adjust temps down below the NBM deterministic value which is above the 90th percentile for most locations. The best approach was a combination of the NBM, NBM50, and NBM25 which gets a few locations close to freezing but not quite down to 32 yet. Obviously MCB is one of the cooler locations but also the typical drainage locations in the Pearl and Pascagoula drainage areas will fall into the mid 30s. In addition the West Bank near NBG will likely drop into the upper 30s while New Orleans and most of the metro remains in the mid to upper 40s. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 The extended forecast shows a warmer and possibly slightly wetter setup before Thanksgiving but looking past Tuesday the models are really struggling with how to handle the pattern. The spread between the 10th and 90th percentile in temps increases SIGNIFICANTLY. With that confidence in the extended forecast past Monday decreases and with the Will remain pretty tight the the latest NBM. Saturday and Sunday high pressure at the sfc will start to slide east while the amplified pattern begins to flatten out. Temps start top moderate Saturday night but more so during the day on Sunday as highs could be 10 degrees warmer in some locations on Sunday. Conditions continue to moderate heading into the new week as we move under zonal flow aloft as early as Sunday night. Zonal flow remains in place through Wednesday. At the same time high pressure at the sfc remains off to the east with a weak boundary setting up northwest of the area. With the pattern expected early next week there is a small chance that we could see a few shots of light rain as multiple weak impulses quickly move through the mean flow. Just a quick look into Thanksgiving and after the forecast becomes very uncertain as the models struggle to figure out the pattern but there are indications that a weak front and slightly stronger s/w could impact the area providing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms and possibly even a risk of severe weather. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 No issues for terminals as skies remain clear and the dry boundary layer conditions lead to no vsby concerns. VFR status will remain in place through the forecast. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 High pressure centered over TX will continue to slide south. This will keep a steady moderate to strong offshore wind over the region today. A reinforcing cold front will also help to bump the winds back up tonight but high pressure should finally settle in helping to relax winds some tomorrow afternoon or evening allowing headlines to finally drop off. High pressure slides east late Saturday with return flow slowly setting back up. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 37 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 69 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 67 38 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 66 47 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 66 41 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 69 36 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532- 534. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1209048 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 407 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Temperatures starting to warm will be the general trend of the short term forecast as the northerly winds will continue to weaken and eventually turn towards the east while remaining light. Thanks to the surface high pressure and a mostly dry environment, chances of rain are expected to be very low. With mostly clear skies, the high temperatures are expected to be mostly in the upper 70s. However some places in the Middle and Lower Valley could get into the lower 80s for highs today. Moving into tonight, the low temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the region. Once again, parts of the Middle and Lower Valley continue to be the exception to the trend where the low temperatures could actually be in the mid 50s. Going into the day for Friday, the pleasant conditions are expected to continue with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds. The high temperatures for Friday are expected to be a bit warmer with most of the high temperatures in the lower 80s. However a few places in the Northern Ranchlands could see high temperatures a bit lower in the upper 70s. As for the hazards along the coast, with the winds and seas continuing the subside during the day the coastal hazards should expire soon. The High Risk of Rip Currents is expected to expire by this evening and the Coastal Flood Advisory is set to expire by 6 AM this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 500 mb high pressure centered off of the west coast of Mexico will be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA during the period. A mid-level flow from the northwest will gradually transition to a more zonal flow, resulting in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Unfortunately, this will also produce gradually warming daytime high and overnight low temperatures, with well above normal values likely. Additionally, periods of a more intense pressure gradient at the surface will lead to increasing winds and building seas, with a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches for Sunday and Monday and again on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds are light and northerly, expected to remain light and become variable by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 With the winds and seas continuing to come down, mostly favorable conditions are expected for today through Friday. While today will see light northerly winds and low to moderate seas, however by late tonight, the seas will continue to diminish and the northerly winds will shift toward the east. As such, by Friday, there will be light easterly winds and low seas. (Friday Night through Wednesday) A variable pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce period of adverse marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. The best chance for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory will occur Saturday night through Sunday night, and again on Wednesday. Outside of these time periods, light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 57 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 50 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 68 76 70 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 57 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ451-454-455. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209047 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 536 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Some moisture pushed into the northeast corner of the forecast area last night and showers continued over the local Atlantic waters, otherwise the atmosphere has been relatively dry with a few heat-driven showers in the afternoon. Moisture will move into the area on Friday morning bringing increased showers and thunderstorms to the area. A northwesterly swell will increase the rip current risk on Sunday. Except for a dry slot that crosses Monday night conditions will remain mostly wet after this Friday. && .SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday... Relatively calm and quiet weather conditions prevailed during the overnight hours across the islands. Satellite and doppler radar observations indicated isolated to scattered showers mostly over the Atlantic waters with no significant impact over the region. Lows were in the low to mid 60s in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico and in the mid to upper 70s in the coastal and urban areas of the islands. Winds were light and variable through most of the night. After the frontal passage in the previous days, dry and stable conditions continued across the region. Today, mostly calm weather will continue to prevail. Afternoon showers may develop across the interior and northwestern Puerto Rico due to the combination of daytime heating and local effects. However, no significant rainfall accumulations are anticipated at this time. By Friday, a polar trough is expected to exit the eastern coast of the United Sates, while a surface high pressure located north of the area continue to move eastwards toward the central Atlantic. This pattern will cause the winds to veer and become southeast today and then south on Friday. Therefore, an increase in moisture content is expected through the upcoming weekend. The latest precipitable water content analysis has values of up to 2.0 inches. This analysis suggests an increase in moisture content that may result in shower activity through the rest of the short- term period. Daytime temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s along the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. Minimum temperatures will drop to the low to mid 60s in the higher elevations, and will remain in the 70s for the rest of the area. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... At upper levels, the sub-tropical jet between Florida and Haiti will join the polar jet well north of the local area, but will be unable to come much closer to the area due to high pressure that stretches from the Central Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic along 20 north which will drift a little south during the period. A decaying wave will approach the area and cross the Windward Islands from the east early Sunday morning to bring additional moisture to the area. This moisture will move quickly past the forecast area to the south and feed the developing north-south trough north of Panama while pulling in drier air in from the east over us on Monday. As the trough develops a low over Jamaica, winds will become more southerly and bring more moisture from the southeast Caribbean for continued shower activity. 500 mb temperatures will be mostly minus 5 to minus 6 during the period, so there will present a chance of thunderstorms--mainly during the afternoons over Puerto Rico and over the local waters at night. Although some local urban and small stream flooding could develop, showers should move just fast enough to prevent major river rises during the period. Nevertheless most areas will have at least some rain each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. Aftn SHRA may result in VCSH at TJPS/TJBQ/TIST/TISX btw 21/16-23Z. VRB at less than 5 kts will continue thru 21/14Z. Then, ESE winds at 10-15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations through 21/22Z. && .MARINE... Small craft advisories are still likely Sunday through Tuesday-- mainly in the Atlantic waters when seas become 7 feet or more. && .BEACH FORECAST... Conditions have improved considerably since yesterday allowing the High surf advisory to be dropped. But the increasing swell from the north northwest on Sunday will elevate the rip current risk to high through at least Monday. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ001-002. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1209046 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 433 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Currently - Fresh northwest to northerly breezes prevail across the Keys in wake of an earlier cold front passage. These breezes are being driven by a surface high spilling southward through the Plains. The coldest and driest air remains a bit off with all of South Florida remaining in the lower 70s with dew points near 70. Further north, in the vicinity of Tampa, temperatures are in the mid 60s with dew points in the mid 50s. With that said, sufficient stabilization has taken place across our area to have ended shower activity along the island chain. However, a few remaining weak showers persist across the outer Florida Straits. Forecast - The surface high driving our breezes will continue to settle southwards towards the Texas coast and will be reinforced at least once over the next couple of days. This will keep winds moderate to fresh for much of the Keys. Expect significant afternoon lull in the lee of South Florida. The sustained northerly breezes will precipitate the first significant cool down of the season. Expect temperatures to slip 5 to 10 degrees below normal over the next couple of days. Dew points will slip into the 50s and may briefly touch the 40s by Saturday. Needless to say, rain chances will be nil. Sky cover will be problematic. Most of the Keys should undergo a clearing trend today. However, portions of the western end of the archipelago may remain clouded up stratocumulus flowing in on the persistent northwesterly boundary layer flow. The previously mentioned high will consolidate over the lower Mississippi Valley later this week and drive eastward towards the Atlantic this weekend. As a result, expect winds to finally trend downwards and veer northeast and east northeasterly. With that, gradual moderation will ensue. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 High pressure building down the Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico will continue to drive a cold front through Keys waters today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Keys waters this morning. With that said, daytime heating is expected to result in considerable slackening in its lee and the advisory may be briefly lowered for our eastern waters. Expect winds to surge again tonight with the best cold air advection. The high pressure system will consolidate over the lower Mississippi Valley later this week and drive eastward towards the Atlantic this weekend. As a result, winds will steadily trend downwards and veer more northeasterly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 343 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Flight categories at both terminals will continue to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR due to intermittent low level clouds near 2k feet. Will go ahead and maintain VCSH in the TAFs until 12Z as some shallow and light showers are still showing up on radar. Northwest to north winds near 15 knots with frequent gusts near 25 knots will continue through the rest of the day with crosswind concerns elevated due to the northerly component. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1209045 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 436 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Skies have gradually been clearing out as drier and cooler air filters in across the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, an upper level trough pushes into the Northeast while upper level ridge builds behind it and into the region. Tight gradient will bring northwesterly winds across the peninsula through Friday bringing hazardous marine conditions and high risk of rip currents. Additionally, high and low temperatures are expected to drop over 10 degrees tonight and Friday. Highs today will struggle to get above 70 degrees, especially along the Nature Coast. && .LONG TERM (SAT-WED)... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 During the weekend and into early next week, high pressure remains in control of weather conditions. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 30s north to around 50 degrees south by Sunday morning. As ridge continues to build, through next week allowing temperatures to gradually warming up. Winds will also decrease and marine conditions improve during the period. This pattern will keep beautiful weather across the area, so get out there and enjoy the outdoors. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions prevail with periods of gusty northwesterly winds in place through the afternoon. Dry and cooler airmass will keep clear skies area-wide. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 High pressure builds over the next few days with gusty winds pushing behind front. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday morning. A High Risk of Rip Currents continues into Saturday evening. Marine conditions gradually improve through the weekend pleasant boating conditions expected by early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 404 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Area of high pressure builds in behind this front through the rest of the week and into the weekend across fire districts. As a result, dry and cooler conditions prevail during this time. Minimum humidity values to range between 35-55 percent each afternoon, with some periods below 35 percent possible, especially over interior portions of Nature Coast. Gusty northerly winds will also produce some moderate to high dispersions over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 68 54 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 73 53 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 70 47 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 70 58 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 60 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1209044 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 413 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A potent cold front has moved across the area overnight. Another reinforcing cold front will move through today followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 2:30 AM Thursday...A potent cold front has nearly cleared the CWA and a much cooler, drier Arctic air mass is expanding over ENC. Lows will reach the 40s and 50s tonight with very dry dew points in the 20s and 30s across the coastal plain. A second (and dry) cold front will move through this afternoon, which will reinforce the CAA. This continued tightened gradient will keep WNW winds gusting to around 20 mph today. The combination of inland min RHs around 30-35% and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today (see the Fire Weather section below). Skies will gradually clear through the morning and highs will be seasonable in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Strong CAA throughout the day and ample radiative cooling overnight will cause temps to fall to nearly freezing. It`s also not out of the question for some well- sheltered areas to dip into the 20s. For these reasons, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Martin, Pitt, Greene, Lenoir, Duplin, and inland Onslow counties. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Breezy and cold Friday - Trending warmer late weekend into early next week A highly amplified upper level pattern this week will transition to a lower confidence zonal flow aloft pattern as we move into the week of Thanksgiving. At the surface, a broad area of cyclonic flow will reside across the Eastern U.S. through Saturday thanks to persistent low pressure off the New England coast. Late in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will build in across the Southeast U.S. By the middle of next week, medium range guidance differ quite a bit, but the potential exists for a front to move through the Carolinas a day or so either side of Thanksgiving. Friday - Saturday: Yet another potent shortwave will traverse the Carolinas late Friday into Friday night. This wave will be accompanied by another surge of gusty winds, with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph for most of ENC, with higher gusts to 40 mph possible along the OBX. Increased CAA associated with the wave will not only support gusty winds, but also colder temps. After a chilly start to the day, highs on Friday will struggle to reach the low 50s. By Saturday, thicknesses begin to increase, which should allow temps to top out about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday. Steep lapse rates beneath the anomalous upper low plus modest low-mid level moisture may allow a few diurnal showers to develop Friday. However, recent ensemble guidance suggests the chance is <10%, so we`ll keep a mention out of the forecast for now. Drier air works in aloft on Saturday, further lowering the risk of showers. Sunday - Monday: High pressure is forecast to be centered off to our south over Florida, allowing a west or southwest low-level flow to develop. This should allow temperatures to gradually warm into early next week, with highs potentially topping out near 70 once again by Monday. Winds will be noticeably lighter as well. Tuesday - Thursday: From a 50,000 ft view, zonal flow aloft is forecast to reside across the CONUS next week. Within this flow, medium range guidance show significant differences, primarily focused on an upper level trough forecast to move ashore along the U.S. West Coast, and how it evolves as it moves downstream through the week. One camp of guidance suggests this wave will dampen with time, leading to a mostly uneventful cold front passage on Tuesday, followed by cool and dry conditions lasting through Thanksgiving Day. In the other camp, Tuesday`s front stalls, with a more significant wave riding along the front late next week. That second camp would lead to a more eventful Thanksgiving travel period compared to the first camp. Something to watch in the coming days. For now, our forecast will reflect the cooler, drier, and less eventful scenario. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 12:45 AM Thursday...A potent cold front is racing across ENC and is currently draped from NE to SW just west of Highway 17. It is producing gusty winds, showers, and a wide range of VFR to IFR conditions. As the front passes, there will be a sharp shift in wind with gusts up to 25-30 kt (higher along the coast). Skies will clear behind the front and all TAF sites should return to VFR within the next hour or two. WNW winds could gust to 20 kt through today but will dissipate after sunset. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gusty west to northwest winds Friday into Saturday - Sub VFR CIGs possible Friday A potent upper level wave will move through on Friday, leading to a renewed surge of gusty winds Friday into Saturday. During this time, gusts of 20-35kt are expected. A period of sub-VFR CIGs may develop during peak heating Friday, with a few SHRA not completely out of the question. VFR conditions then look to prevail Saturday into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 3:40 AM Thursday...Westerly winds over the coastal waters are currently gusting to 30-40 kts in response to the strong cold front that moved through overnight. The coastal waters will continue to gust to 25-30 kts through today and as a reinforcing front moves through later this evening, gusts will briefly jump to 30-35 kt. Overnight, the gusts will drop back to 25-30 kt. Seas will respond by increasing to 4-6 ft today. Conditions will improve across the inland rivers this morning, but unfavorable winds and seas will continue across the remaining rivers, sounds, and coastal waters through the end of the week. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 315 AM Thursday... - Gale Watch issued for portions of the ENC waters Friday evening into Saturday morning A potent upper level wave will move through the region on Friday, likely leading to another surge of strong west to northwest winds Friday evening into Saturday morning. During this time, guidance continues to show a strong signal for gale-force gusts. Given the consistent signal, we have issued a Gale Watch for a portion of the ENC waters where confidence is the highest. An expansion of the watch is possible if the current signal holds. Winds will finally begin to lay down by late in the weekend. The building winds on Friday will lead to seas building to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters, with elevated seas lasting into Saturday. Late in the weekend, seas will lay down to 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 4 AM Thursday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible today. Inland min RH values will fall to 30-35% and westerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Wednesday...An extended period of 20-25kt Werly winds behind a cold front tonight into Saturday may lead to minor soundside flooding concerns for the Outer Banks. Current thinking is these persistent Werly winds should remain just weak enough to limit impacts, but minor water level rises will be possible for soundside NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and Roanoke Island. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ090-198. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ131-135-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156. && $$ |
| #1209043 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 416 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across the area today and will remain the primary feature through early next week. A cold front could approach the area towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Until sunrise: Strong CAA persists across the region, with temperatures continuing to drop over the next couple of hours. Skies remain clear, and dry conditions are expected through the night. Winds should diminish a little over the next 1-2 hours inland and then pick up after sunrise. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even cooler by daybreak Thursday with wind chills dropping into the upper 30s/lower 40s. Today: With a strong closed upper low moving across the Great Lakes and a high pressure building off to the east, dry weather and cooler temperatures are expected. Breezy conditions are also expected again today, with winds W at 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt over land. Highs will reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight: W winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 30s inland and lot to mid 40s along the coast. We expect enough overnight wind to prevent frost development. Lake Winds: Expect winds at 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 over Lake Moultrie throughout the day into tonight. Also, waves of 2-3 ft are expected. This combination creates dangerous wave action on the lake tonight with the worst conditions occurring over the central and eastern portions of the lake. Boaters are encouraged to remain off the lake. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep mid level low will meander over the Northeast on Friday, before exiting on Saturday. The pattern will then flatten and be replaced by weak ridging by the end of the weekend. At the surface, low pressure will finally exit allowing high pressure to continue to build over the local area. Gusty winds are expected on Friday, then the pressure gradient eases through the weekend. Gusts over Lake Moultrie could approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria Friday into Friday night, but at this point remains just shy. Otherwise, expect full sunshine with moderating temperatures. It will be coolest on Friday when highs top out in the mid to upper 50s (~10 degrees below climo). By Sunday, temperatures will recover to the upper 60s. Lows will be chilly, falling solidly into the 30s inland of the coast. Attention then turns to the potential for frost over far interior areas. For Friday night/Saturday morning, while temps are supportive, winds could stay too elevated for widespread frost development. Certainly not out of the question to see patchy frost in more sheltered locations. For Saturday night/Sunday morning, we did go on the cooler side of guidance with ideal radiational cooling conditions in place. As winds are expected to go calm, this could lead to a higher threat for frost. Will continue to monitor trends. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to extend into the area early next week, although a cold front could approach during the latter half of the period. Still some uncertainties in the evolution of that feature, whether it actually passes through or stalls, so changes to the forecast are likely. At this point, no rain is in the forecast. Temperatures will be above climo for Monday and Tuesday then possibly cooler for Wednesday if fropa occurs. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 21/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Now with cold front offshore, gusty northwest winds have developed and will persist into the day Thursday. Clouds have now cleared and will remain clear through the rest of the 06Z TAF period. Thus, VFR will prevail. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty west winds are expected Friday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday: NW winds will become more westerly as we head into the afternoon. Expect winds to range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft for the majority of the day, and then increasing 4 to 5 ft tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Georgia offshore waters beyond 20 NM with high- end Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore legs, including Charleston Harbor. Friday through Tuesday: Gusty west winds will persist over the coastal waters Friday into Friday night, maintaining the ongoing Small Craft Advisories. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts should fall below 25 kt Friday evening so the Advisory is scheduled to come down at 23z/6 PM. Conditions will improve on Saturday, with winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Tuesday. Winds eventually turn southwest with speeds generally 15 knots or less and seas 1-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209042 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 419 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore of the Delmarva coast early this morning. Meanwhile, several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Blustery and much cooler weather conditions behind a strong cold front. NW winds average 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph (highest coastal areas). - Remaining mainly dry, aside from a few showers over the northern neck and the eastern shore. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night over interior northeast NC and portions of the western Tidewater area. Latest analysis reveals a potent upper level low centered over the Great Lakes early this morning. At the surface, a strong ~996mb sfc low was analyzed over the upper peninsula of Michigan, with a secondary low now just offshore of the Delmarva coast. The strong trough and its associated sfc low will pivot SSE into the northern mid-Atlantic through tonight. This allows the area to start drying out today on breezy NNW winds. There will be multiple shortwaves transversing SE along the trough, thereby allowing multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. The first (and weakest) of these shortwaves push through this afternoon and this evening. This will result in another surge of gusty winds to 20 to 30 mph, some clouds and perhaps a few showers along the eastern shore. Otherwise, expect most of the area to remain dry today. Highs only top out in the low to mid 50s. Winds do decouple a bit inland later Thu night, which will make for a stark temperature contrast between inland areas and the coast. Look for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s along the coast. This will put a narrow stripe of counties still active in the frost freeze program with lows right around freezing. Have gone ahead and added these counties from Bertie/Northampton and Gates NC up to James City in a Freeze watch for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday. - More widespread showers are possible on Friday. A few instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible over northern portions of the area Friday morning into early afternoon. The second shortwave comes Friday and looks to be a bit stronger/cooler with highs in the mid upper 40s across the Piedmont and lower 50s along the SE coast. The latest models depict the core of the upper low across eastern PA and NJ pivoting up into New England, with a rather strong shortwave diving SE across local area. Have increased PoPs into likely range for the northern neck and eastern shore for showers from midday Friday into Friday night. Have also included some low end PoPs for along and to the S of the I-64 corridor into RIC metro and Hampton Roads. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. However,a good portion of that moisture layer is within the DGZ and could easily result in some graupel or even a few snowflakes mixing in over northern portions of the area Friday morning into the early afternoon. Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Drying out Friday evening/night, but remaining breezy and partly to mostly cloudy with low temperatures not quite as cold in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The upper level trough will begin to move out of the area into the Gulf of Maine Saturday, as upper ridging builds to the east. This will allow a milder day with highs warming back into the middle 50s to around 60. The breezy conditions gradually relax late Saturday into Sunday as the trough moves out of the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures next week are expected gradually moderate each day through midweek, as the high moves off the coast and upper ridging crests overhead Monday and Tuesday. Highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Rain chances return to the forecast next Wednesday ahead of the next system arriving from the NW. Will note, by the middle of next week the ensembles do disagree with the placement and strength of the next system. However, they do agree on a potential system and Pops remain tn the forecast and stay between 15-25%. The surface low slowly shifts into the Gulf of Main on Saturday afternoon and night. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 140 AM EST Thursday... The well-advertised strong cold front swept across the region earlier this morning, bringing gusty winds, showers and variable CIGs to area terminals. Conditions continue to gradually improve in the wake of the front, with a gradually clearing sky expected over the next few hours. CIGs have already returned to VFR inland, with MVFR lingering along the immediate coast from ECG to SBY through 07-09z/2-4 AM EST before returning to VFR. NW winds will average 10-15 kt through around and just after sunrise, then increase and shift to the W at 15-18 kt with gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early evening. Increasing aftn clouds are expected, but CIGs should remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. Outlook: Gusty W-NW winds continue Fri-Sat, with less wind by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected across N/NE sections of the area Friday aftn/Fri night. && .MARINE... As of 410 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remains in effect early this morning for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and coastal waters. - Winds remain elevated through Saturday night. - Another period of Gale conditions is increasingly likely late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Early morning surface analysis depicted a cold front E of the local waters with an occluded low over the Great Lakes and a secondary low off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds were NW 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across the Ches Bay, coastal waters, and Lower James River. As such, Gale Warnings remain in effect until 7 AM for these areas. Winds have diminished to SCA level across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound where Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs. Winds gradually diminish this morning as the pressure gradient weakens, eventually becoming W this afternoon. A period of potentially sub-SCA conditions is possible across the upper rivers and Currituck Sound later this morning into this afternoon with W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters. However, W winds increase back to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this afternoon into tonight behind a secondary cold front. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible across the coastal waters and lower bay with this surge, however, wind probs for gusts of 34 kt are <40% (lower for zonal averages). Additionally, the surge looks to be brief (~3 hrs). As such, will refrain from issuing Gale Warnings for this surge at this time. Winds remain elevated (although trending lower) into Fri before a trough moves through, reinforcing the CAA yet again. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are high for this surge with probs approaching 100% across the coastal waters and 70% across the Ches Bay. As such, expect W winds to increase to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across all local waters late Fri afternoon through Fri night. While chances for Gale conditions late Fri into Fri night are high, will hold off on Gale Watches for now given ongoing Gale Warnings across the same zones for this morning`s surge. However, Gale Watches for late Fri into Fri night will be needed once current Gale Warnings are allowed to expire. SCA conditions continue Sat before winds gradually diminish Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. Waves and seas of 3-5 ft and 4-6 ft (locally higher possible) respectively continue to be possible early this morning. Waves subside to 2-4 ft later this morning with seas remaining elevated into Sat night. Another period of 4-5 ft waves is possible with the Fri afternoon into night surge. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ012>014-030. VA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for VAZ089-090-092-093-096. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634- 638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633- 635>637. && $$ |
| #1209041 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 347 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Colder end to the week expected behind a strong cold front, possibly leading to frost or even freezing conditions inland each night. High pressure will move off the coast early next week with warmer temperatures expected. A weaker cold front could move through toward mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong cold front has moved offshore early this morning with gusty NW winds and dew points mainly in the 30s across the region. Expect these winds to slow down late tonight into early this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. After sunrise, the growing boundary layer (expected to reach up to around 850mb at peak heating) will tap into faster winds aloft and allow for gusty west winds up to around 20-25 kts to develop around midday and continue through the afternoon. High temps will struggle to reach 60F amidst persistent cold advection and a robust subsidence inversion. With the loss of heating, gusty winds driven by vertical mixing will subside late this afternoon into this evening. However, another surge of WNW flow with even drier dew points behind a secondary cold front is expected to push in between 23-04Z this evening, which should bring some temporary gusty winds back into the mix, although speeds will be less than during the day. A weakening pressure gradient will allow for winds to decrease during the latter half of the night, and with clear skies in place, temperatures have the potential to drop to around the freezing mark, particularly across the northern tier of counties in our CWA. Therefore, a Freeze Watch has been issued to account for this possibility. Dew points depressions should be large enough to preclude widespread frost, but preferred areas near a water source or irrigated land may be able to yield frost due to locally higher dew points. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Dry w/ below normal temperatures *Frost/freeze conditions possible inland Fri/Sat nights Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: General troughing will prevail through Friday night with high pressure returning thereafter. Temperatures will stay below normal through the period with highs only in the lower to mid 50s Friday and lower 60s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s away from the coast each night, possibly near freezing in spots. Such temperatures could support frost as well, although there is some uncertainty regarding temps, humidities and winds. Also, should note that the issuance of Freeze Watches/Warnings and Frost Advisories will be predicated on whether freezing temperatures occur tonight which would end the growing season in these areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: *Warming trend early in the week w/ above normal temps starting Mon *Cold front could bring cooler temps and a few showers toward mid week Confidence: *Moderate Details: High pressure will be shifting offshore bringing moderating temps and moisture levels. A cold front looks to approach toward mid week, possibly moving into and/or through the area as early as Tuesday. Moisture and forcing appear weak so not expecting much rainfall with this feature, although some showers will be possible. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A strong cold front has crossed through all terminals as of this writing with gusty northwest winds at all terminals. As the pressure gradient relaxes behind this initial surge, expect winds to gradually slow down as the night progresses. Mid-level cloudiness will clear out over the next 2-3 hours, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. After sunrise, a growing boundary layer will promote a return of breezy west winds with gustiness returning around midday with gusts expected to reach around 20-25 kts during the afternoon as the boundary layer reaches up to around 850mb. Winds will relax again after sunset, but remain steady westerly. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR through the period as high pressure maintains control. Gusty winds will be the only concern on Friday and Saturday afternoons. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Breezy NW winds will gradually subside this morning and back to westerly as the pressure gradient weakens and a weak surface ridge passes through. Winds and gustiness increase again this afternoon and veer to WNW this evening as another surge of cold advection pushes in. Seas will be dominated by wind waves with 2-4 ft waves temporarily subsiding this morning and early afternoon before rebounding to 3-5 ft this evening as a result of the increase in winds later in the day. Some 6 ft waves may be found in outer portions of the coastal waters near 20nmi offshore of Cape Fear during the first half of the night before gradually subsiding thereafter. Friday through Monday...A tight pressure gradient and cold advection will keep winds/seas elevated through Friday night and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this period. High pressure will then build into the area this weekend leading to a relaxation of the pressure gradient and thus improving marine conditions. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NCZ087-096-105. SC...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for SCZ017-023-024. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209039 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 350 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure area spreads welcomed steady light to moderate rain today, before tapering to intermittent rain showers tonight into early Friday. Rain could mix with slushy wet snow above 1500 feet elevation tonight but no wintry impacts are expected. Another round of steady light rain moves through eastern New England Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure slowly progresses into the Maritimes for the weekend, with gusty northwest winds and more clouds than sun are anticipated. Dry weather then returns for Monday before an unsettled weather pattern develops again for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Today The forecast for today can be summed up in one word. WET. A much needed of soaking of rain for southern New England today as an area of low-pressure meanders off the south coast of southern New England before retrograding north and west over New York overnight. Showers begin moving into western MA/CT during the 5-7am time frame before becoming a steady moderate rain between 7 and 10 am. Showers likely don`t reach the eastern areas until after 8am, becoming a moderate steady rain between 10am and noon. Expect periods of moderate rainfall to persist right through this evening with increasing winds out of the east from 10 to 15 mph. Rain and clouds keep temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight Steady moderate rain continues through about midnight before shower activity begins to wane as the associated surface low-pressure circulations retrogrades west into eastern New York. While widespread shower activity will come to an end, broad cyclonic flow aloft may continue to support a few lingering showers into the pre-dawn hours. Winds gradually shift to the south/southwest by sunrise tomorrow. Low temps bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Can`t rule out a few snow showers at the higher elevations of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills, but we would not expect any accumulation. Tomorrow Generally a cool/cloudy unsettled day tomorrow as a broad upper- level low meanders over The Northeast. We should dry out for a few hours in the morning before showers redevelop by late morning/early afternoon. This will occur as the upper-low begins to shift east over The Atlantic Waters. Shower activity won`t be as widespread and persistent compared to what is expected today, but an additional tenth to quarter of an inch can be expected mainly east of I-495. Temperatures will be close to normal again in the upper 40s/low 50s. Southerly winds gradually become southeasterly/easterly again by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, damp and overcast Fri night, with steady rains breaking out in the coastal plain. * Gusty NW winds this weekend, with more clouds on Sat along with off-and-on showers. Seasonable temps but the winds will make it feel cooler. * Dry for Monday, but turning more unsettled into midweek. Details: Friday Night: Cloudy, damp and unsettled conditions for Southern New England continue into Fri night with vertically-stacked circulation continuing to meander around western New England/southern NY vicinity. However there still looks to be a round of steadier light rains which develop/rotate NNW from the southern waters into eastern MA, the Cape and the Islands. Looking at GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble members, there is a significant enough majority of members which keep this secondary burst of steadier rains into the MA/RI coastal plain with lighter intermittent precip over western MA/CT. However QPF amts are still pretty variable; while QPF amts are more commonly in the quarter to half inch range in the coastal plain thru Fri night, there are a minority of members up to 3/4ths an inch. By early Sat AM, this band of steadier rains should shift NNE into coastal ME/NH as the broader upper level low begins to pull offshore. The Weekend: Ensembles continue to trend toward a slower NE departure of the upper-level low and its cold pocket of air aloft for the weekend. Thus a trend toward cloudier conditions for Sat with off-and-on light showers, with better chances in eastern and northern MA, Cape and Islands. Less cloud cover in general for Sunday, with more in/around the terrain but with drier conditions. Highs on Sat in the 40s to around 50, and with a pretty strong NWly gradient flow and cloud cover, lows may only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. With less cloud cover, highs Sun in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s Sun night. The cooler temperatures aloft and a robust NW gradient flow will also contribute to rather blustery to gusty NW winds through the weekend. Model soundings also continue to show mixing up to about 900 mb on Sat, and slightly higher around 850 mb for Sun with a little less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. For Sat, NW gusts could reach into the 25 to 30 mph range during the daytime hrs. Strongest 925 mb jet of 35-40 kt moves thru Sat night into early on Sun, and we should still realize gusts around 20-25 mph into the evening for most areas, but could punch up to around 35-45 mph over the Berkshires, hills in Worcester County as well as the Cape and Islands. Still see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for Sunday thru the early afternoon, then beginning to subside late in the day as gradient starts to relax and low level jet core shifts offshore. Potential for gale headlines for the waters, although over land, confidence in gusts reaching Advisory levels is lower but could be possible if we mix deeper. Will reassess gusts as we get into the mesoscale model forecast horizon. Monday: Still looking at pretty tranquil weather conditions for Mon with weak shortwave ridging aloft and modest SW winds allowing for highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night through Wednesday Night: A more active weather pattern is indicated by most of the ensembles into the early to middle part of next week, as slow-evolving trough energy circulating over the West Coast/Pac NW begins to eject eastward off the Rockies. At least one frontal system moves in during this period, around the Mon night/Tue timefame, although there are still significant differences in strength with this potential system. Forecast confidence is still on the low side in this period and stayed fairly close to NBM forecasts for this period until those differences shake out. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z Thursday: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing. MVFR stratus initially (IFR at ORH) with dry weather for at least another couple hrs. Steady light to moderate RA with vsbys 3-6 SM now over the lower Hudson Valley then breaks out into BAF/BDL around 08-10z, and into central MA/RI by ~10-12z. Better chance for steadier rains eastern airports just after 12z. Ceilings may trend closer to MVFR/borderline IFR range as steady rain breaks out. Light E winds to start but will increase to around 7-10 kt thru 12z Thurs. Today: Moderate confidence. 3-5 SM RA spreads across all airports early this AM, which continues into early tonight. Rain will become increasingly wind-driven as E winds increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the E MA coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue, though ceilings likely to dance between 800-1500 ft most of the day. Took a pessimistic approach with the TAFs indicating IFR, however there could be MVFR intervals in between but difficult to pinpoint a timing. Tonight: Moderate confidence. Widespread 3-6 SM steady RA early tonight trends to more of an intermittent -SHRA or even -DZ between 00-06z, earliest south and later north. Steadier light rain likely to continue at BAF/BDL. Improvement in ceilings toward OVC MVFR interior, and become BKN/OVC VFR over eastern/southeast New England. Winds start E around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, though will become SE/S around 10-14 kt with lesser gusts to around 20 kt. Friday: Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings with periods of -RA interior CT/MA, BKN/OVC VFR ceilings with initially dry wx eastern airports. Later in the afternoon a band of rain moves northward from the ocean and spreads across eastern MA/RI, exact timing uncertain but likely not sooner than 18z. SE to S winds around 7-14 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR/MVFR with 3-6 SM RA developing around ~12-13z. Cigs could flip between IFR-MVFR levels frequently today. Wind-driven rain on ENE/E winds around 15 kt today with gusts 20-25 kt. RA tapers off around 03z to a intermittent light -SHRA, with winds becoming SE around 10-13 kt. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR-MVFR w/ 3-6 SM RA developing around ~08-10z. Steady light to moderate RA continues thru about 02z before lightening up. E winds around 10 kt today, becoming SE tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday Conditions deteriorate over the coastal waters today as an area of low-pressure moves over the south coastal waters. Seas build to 6 to 8 feet by the mid-afternoon hours with moderate easterly winds gusting to 30 knots. A few gale force gusts may be possible over the eastern marine zones near the midnight hour, but generally expecting gusts to stay in the SCY range. We should see improving conditions during during the day Friday, but still expect 5 foot seas over the outer marine zones through Friday evening. Winds over the coastal waters on Friday will be easterly from 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts up to 25 knots possible. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1209040 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 346 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 - A strong, southward-flowing longshore current is expected at area beaches, along with a moderate risk of rip currents - Significantly cooler, drier air arrives today and lasts into the weekend - Hazardous boating conditions over the local Atlantic waters through Friday, and sensitive fire weather conditions continue into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient is strengthening early this morning in the wake of a passing cold front. In response, northwest winds will gradually increase through the morning and into the afternoon. Significantly drier air is also on our doorstep, with GOES-derived PW already indicating PW less than 0.50" pushing into northeast Florida. Temperatures range from the mid 60s north of I-4 to the low 70s along the Treasure Coast. These values will fall quicker into the 50s and 60s through sunrise, while a gradual rebound into the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast by the afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times, reaching 20-25 mph. In addition to gusty winds at the coast, a strong, southward- flowing longshore current is forecast to develop at area beaches today. Currents like these can quickly push swimmers into deeper water, making them more susceptible to getting caught in a rip current. Remember to always swim within sight of a lifeguard! Conditions remain breezy at the coast tonight as northwest flow ushers in even cooler air behind a reinforcing cold front. Low temperatures into Friday morning will dip into the mid to upper 40s for most, while coastal locations stay in the low 50s. A 20-30 percent chance for sub-40 degree temperatures exists along and north of I-4, according to the latest 00z HREF probabilities. This Weekend...Drier and cooler than normal conditions will last into the weekend. Friday is another breezy to gusty day with northwest winds 10-15 mph, peaking around 25 mph at times (especially at the coast). Despite plenty of sunshine, daytime highs will struggle to reach the mid and upper 60s Friday and Saturday but return to near normal (mid 70s) on Sunday as high pressure builds over Florida. The coldest morning of the next several, Saturday, will also combine with a light NW breeze to produce wind chills in the upper 30s over a large portion of ECFL. Note that temperatures could dip below 40 degrees briefly across northern Lake and Volusia counties Saturday morning. Monday-Wednesday...A warming trend resumes early next week as zonal mid level flow builds over the central and eastern CONUS. Dry weather continues as moisture fields are slow to recover until later in the week. Light onshore becomes established as daytime highs push into the upper 70s and low 80s. Morning lows Monday will still be in the mid to upper 40s north of I-4, rebounding into the 50s and low 60s areawide Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Model output diverges regarding the synoptic pattern over the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which has downstream implications regarding what sensible weather we experience from Thanksgiving Day onward. Right now, we can anticipate near to slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday, along with mostly dry conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Today-Tonight...Quickly deteriorating and hazardous boating conditions are forecast through the day as northwesterly winds freshen and build seas. Early this morning, Buoy 41009 was reporting NW winds around 17 kt, gusting 20 to 25 kt. Farther north, Buoy 41117 indicated quickly increasing seas around 6 ft. This northerly wind surge will bring seas up to 4-7 ft nearshore and 8-9 ft offshore later this morning. NW winds 15-20 kt will pick up again after midnight, reaching 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all legs of the adjacent central Florida Atlantic waters (out to 60 nautical miles). Friday-Monday...Hazardous boating is forecast to last through much of Friday, with gradual improvement Friday night into Saturday as winds and seas slowly decrease. 10-14 kt NW flow is anticipated on Saturday, falling below 10 kt for Sunday and Monday. Seas Friday around 5-8 ft in the Gulf Stream fall below 7 ft Saturday morning, decreasing further to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Favorable boating looks to persist through the middle of next week as high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula and local waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The cold front continues southward, with brief MVFR CIGs (BKN015) being observed along it. Have included TEMPO groups for MLB and the Treasure Coast to account for this. Behind the front, winds veering northwesterly and increasing, with gusts to around 20kts area-wide by daybreak. Skies will clear, as dry air moves into the area. However, winds will remain elevated, with gusts to around 25kts through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Much drier air and breezy northwest winds will combine to produce sensitive fire weather conditions from today through the weekend. Relative humidity of 40 percent or lower is forecast each afternoon before moisture very slowly recovers by the middle part of next week. The most fire sensitive day appears to be Friday before wind speeds decrease this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 45 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 67 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 70 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 68 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 74 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209038 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 324 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... ...COLDER, DRIER TODAY UNDER GUSTY NW WINDS... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Dry air continues to fill in behind the front, leaving mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures today. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest as pressure gradients tighten and daytime mixing develops throughout the day. Daytime high temperatures will only get into the low 60s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 60s over northeast Florida. Southeast Georgia could see some overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with northeast Florida dipping into the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Synopsis...Dry weather and below normal temperatures with potential inland frost each morning this weekend. Friday cold air advection continues with high temperatures only in the upper 50s across parts of SE GA to the mid 60s across north- central FL under continued gusty NW winds with gusts 25-30 mph as the local pressure gradient remains elevated between the surface high building eastward across the the western Gulf Coast states and a re-enforcing dry cold front moving offshore of the Carolinas. These highs are about about 8-12 degrees below normal for this time of year. Friday night, elevated winds continue as another surface trough moves offshore of the Carolinas. Cold air advection continues Friday night, with low temperatures falling into the 30s across mainly inland locales to the lower 40s toward the Atlantic coast. These 30 degree temperatures for NE FL Saturday morning will be the first 30s since March of 2024 (JAX and GNV both had lows in the 30s on 3/20/2024). With inland winds in the 5-10 mph range by daybreak Sat morning, wind chills will be the low to mid 30s for most locations. Given elevated Saturday morning around sunrise, frost formation is expected to be patchy in nature and only in wind sheltered areas. Saturday, high temperatures are expected to range in the 60s with less wind as the surface ridge builds farther east across the region, with the ridge centering over the local forecast area Saturday night. With near calm wind, clear skies and continued dry low level air in place, leaned on the cool side of guidance with lows in the mid 30s to possibly a few lower 30s for inland locations. Latest guidance suggests about a 20-30% of a brief inland freeze for our normally cooler inland locales Sunday morning including Folkston to Taylor. Sunday morning around daybreak will also be the better time period for possibly frost formation and continued to indicated `patchy` frost at this time in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Synopsis...Continued dry with a warming trend ensuing early next week. Continued dry weather with a moderating trend in temperatures for the start of next week. Sunday, warmer WSW winds develop as the center of the surface high shifts offshore of the local Atlantic coast, with a ridge axis remaining stretched across the local area through Tuesday. Just above the surface, warmer SW flow develops, which will moderate temperatures back above normal values with highs in the 70s with a continuation of chilly nighttime lows in the upper 40s to 50s given the drier low level airmass in place allowing for good radiational cooling. Anticipate daily sea breezes Mon/Tue which will gradually return low level moisture, and increase late night and early morning fog potential. By Wednesday, the surface ridge begins to shift farther SSE as a frontal zone attempts to drift southward across SE GA, increasing cloudiness across the area but likely keeping rainfall still north of the area through at least mid-week given weak upper level pattern with only weak short wave troughs aloft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Skies have cleared as dry air has filled in behind the passing front. VFR conditions will prevail with northwest flow of 10-15 kt, with some gusts of 20-25 kt through tonight. Wind gusts should subside temporarily by sunrise but, start up again by mid morning as daytime mixing develops. Winds will slow to 5-10 kt after sunset through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Small Craft Advisory levels are expected today for all area waters through Friday. This morning, gale force winds in the offshore waters north of St. Augustine will drop off shortly after sunrise. Strong northwesterly winds are forecast to continue along with increasing seas through Friday into Saturday morning. Winds will begin to drop off fairly quickly over the weekend. Rip Currents: Low risk of rip current at SE GA beaches through the weekend with NE FL beaches having a low to moderate risk through Friday dropping to low risk over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Colder and drier under gusty WNW winds today trailing a cold front passage. Gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible at times as minimum humidity falls into the 25-30% range for most locations. High daytime dispersion is expected near the Altamaha River basin. Cooler high temperatures Friday and a slight increase in dew points will increase minimum afternoon humidity to 30-40% for most locations under continued gusty NW winds. Elevated fire danger is possible this afternoon for parts of SE GA where minimum RH may near 25%. Otherwise, elevated 1 hr fuel moisture and a low fire danger index limit fire danger concerns today. Conditions are not favorable for fog formation the next several nights. Patchy inland frost is possible Saturday and Sunday mornings - with Sunday morning being the better morning for frost potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 38 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 45 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 64 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 64 40 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 41 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ474. && $$ |
| #1209037 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 227 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Picture perfect weather can be expected across South Texas the next few days with clear skies, seasonable temperatures, light winds and low humidity. A mid level ridge will nose into the region during this short term period maintaining the dry and quiet weather pattern. In fact PWAT values will hover around 0.25" which is 2 standard deviations below normal. Although fuel moisture and afternoon relative humidity values are low, the light and varaible winds, will limit the fire danger. We`ll see max temps today in the mid 70s. Friday`s highs will be about 5 degrees warmer with a slight increase in humidity due to the weak onshore flow. Not anticipating any fog formation tonight but there is an increasing risk for fog late Friday Night/Saturday morning given the increased boundary layer moisture and light onshore winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Not much change in the long term period as a quiet pattern persists through the weekend and early next week. Surface ridging will shift east of the area into the Gulf of Mexico bringing a return to southeast and southerly flow into the region. This will both increase moisture and increase temperatures across South Texas. High temperatures by late weekend and through early next week will be 10+ degrees above normal in the upper 80s to around 90. Mid to late next week looks like our next opportunity to possibly get a front through. All the global models are showing a surface front come through Thursday into Friday, however the mid-level patterns are very different. On Thursday, for instance, the GFS has a zonal pattern while the ECMWF shows troughing west and ridging east and the Canadian is in an opposite phase as the EC. Looks like the pattern should get more active anyway, but details are nothing to key in on yet. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Little change with this aviation update. VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Light north- northeast winds will continue through Thursday morning. Winds will gradually shift around to the east-southeast tomorrow afternoon while remaining light. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Light and variable winds continue through early Saturday. Onshore flow gradually increases late Saturday into Sunday, becoming moderate and occasionally strong Sunday night. Winds Monday through the middle of next week are expected to remain moderate out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 76 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 45 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 71 60 74 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209036 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 316 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A secondary cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and this front has been ushering in the stronger push of colder weather. Despite full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will still only be in the mid 60s. These will be the coolest temperatures of the Fall season so far. Later tonight, northwest flow continues but it should subside somewhat given the dry and clear conditions. However, ideal radiational cooling conditions aren`t expected given winds remaining elevated overnight. Low temperatures will be much cooler and in the upper 30s across Alabama/Georgia counties and around 40 in our Florida counties. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 At the start of the term, a strong upper level low centering over the Northeast U.S. would have brought an associated cold front through the southeast, reinforcing the cool and dry air that we have been experiencing. Continued northwest flow and PWATs of less than 0.5" will leave us dry for the next several days with cold overnight temperatures for the weekend. Friday`s cold front will arrive during the early morning hours, allowing our afternoon temperatures to remain in the low 60s; and for our AL and GA counties, may struggle to reach 60 degrees. Surface high pressure will fill in behind the front leading to clear skies and light to calm winds during the overnight hours. These conditions will lead to decent radiational cooling and allow for temperatures to fall further into the mid to upper 30s for Friday night into Saturday morning, and again for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wind chills for our AL and GA counties will be around the low to mid-30s. This may lead to cold-weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. We may also experience some patchy frost develop Saturday and Sunday morning, so be sure to protect sensitive plants. As the surface high traverses east across the FL Peninsula over the weekend, temperatures and dew points begin to gradually increase for the upcoming work week. Afternoon temperatures return to the mid and upper 70s, which is around 10 degrees above the climatological norm. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s, which is also above normal for this time of year. Surface winds will become southerly again for the start of the work week, allowing for moisture from the Gulf to advect inland, increasing our dew points to the 60s. PoPs throughout the term remain low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry northwest flow will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Only aviation concerns will be occasional gusts of 20 knots out of the northwest during daytime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue today into tomorrow following a strong cold front that pushed through on Wednesday. Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Recent wetting rains should keep fire weather concerns low despite the breezier and much drier pattern we`ll see on Thursday and Friday. Dispersions will be high this afternoon and remain elevated again on Friday due to elevated northwesterly transport winds and 3 - 5 kft mixing heights. Surface winds will remain elevated around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph this afternoon. Light winds expected over the upcoming weekend which should allow low fire weather concerns to continue. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 42 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209035 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 238 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The first "cool" snap of the season for South Florida will begin as the work week comes to an end thanks to the cold front that passed through the region overnight. A deep layer of northerly winds behind this front will start to usher in a much drier and cooler airmass today, which originates from the backside of a deep mid-level trough covering much of the Eastern US. Skies will start off mostly cloudy to overcast this morning, but rapidly become mostly sunny by the afternoon with breezy northerly winds. High temperatures won`t feel too cool today, ranging from the low to mid 70s over the interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s in SE FL. The start of the cooling trend will be more noticeable tonight, as temperatures fall to the upper 40s around the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Friday will be another mostly sunny day with breezy northerly winds, and high temperatures only climbing into the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 As we move into the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will settle in over the Florida Peninsula allowing for several days of dry and cool air. With the entry of the significantly cooler air mass, this is expected to bring South Florida the coldest overnight lows since last winter. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with the remainder of South FL in the 50s, early Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon highs will trend 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normal across a majority of the region. Some locations, to the north of Alligator Alley, may struggle to reach 70 degrees on Saturday. This will be, by far, the coolest day following the passage of the strong cold front earlier this week. Early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift eastward, allowing for low level winds to begin to veer east- northeasterly. With the veering winds and influence of the Atlantic warmth, temperatures will begin to trend warmer and closer to climatological normals with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are expected to remain benign and dry through the through the weekend into the first half of the new week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 MVFR ceilings across most areas through this early morning as a front continues to move through the area. Skies will gradually clear behind the front, with generally VFR conditions expected across all of South FL after 14Z. Light winds will continue to veer to the NW behind the front this morning, remaining northerly around 10 knots through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will develop across all local waters today as northerly winds increase to around 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front that passed through overnight. Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet over the Gulf waters, and 5 to 8 feet over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will gradually improve by this weekend as the northerly winds lighten and seas subside. && .BEACHES... Issued at 236 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A high rip current risk continues along the Gulf beaches today, and will remain elevated on Friday. Along the Atlantic, there will be a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beaches today, which will remain elevated on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 80 51 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 80 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 81 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 77 53 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 53 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 74 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for GMZ676. && $$ |
| #1209033 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 147 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 617 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Initial frontal boundary is over central FL at this hour while the main cold front is up across the panhandle. The initial front should clear South FL by around 06Z with the main front crossing Thursday morning. Light rain and drizzle has been patchy this evening and expect that to continue tonight until the front arrives and brings in much drier air. Removed any mention of thunder as that threat has diminished. It`ll be a mostly cloudy evening with overnight lows eventually dropping into the low to mid 60s around the lake region and SW FL, with upper 60s to around 70 for the east coast metro. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A cold front will push through the region tonight into tomorrow, ushering in the first "cool" weather snap of the season. Satellite imagery currently positions the front over the Florida Panhandle, with a broad area of moderate rain and some isolated lightning developing ahead of it across Central FL. As the front drops through, so will the rain; much of South Florida will have a 40-60% of scattered, moderate rain that could last through the afternoon. Once the front pushes south of our area, a deep layer of northerly winds will start to usher in very dry air, as well as the coolest temperatures of the season thus far. Low temperatures tonight won`t be reflective of that as the really cool (cold?) air won`t be here until later this week, so temps will only drop into the low to mid 60s over interior and SW FL, with upper 60s over SE FL. Thursday will be dry with breezy northwest winds and gradually clearing skies. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 70s over interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s over SE FL. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A strong cold front will sweep through the region towards the late week period, as a ridge of high pressure sits over the region for a majority of the extended period. This will usher in a (modified) continential polar airmass, leading to the coolest temperatures observed across South Florida in quite some time. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern Florida, with the remainder of South Florida in the 50s from early Friday through Sunday. Afternoon highs will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the climatological range, with several locations north of Alligator Alley struggling to reach 70 degrees on Friday and Saturday. The high pressure system will gradually eastward, allowing low-level winds to veer out of out of the east-northeast beginning early next week. This will yield a warming trend in terms of observed temperatures, with maximum temperatures trending closer to climatological norms in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With the influence of high pressure ridging and a drier airmass, conditions are expected to remain benign and mostly dry through the later part of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 MVFR ceilings across most areas through this early morning as a front continues to move through the area. Skies will gradually clear behind the front, with generally VFR conditions expected across all of South FL after 14Z. Light winds will continue to veer to the NW behind the front this morning, remaining northerly around 10 knots through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Hazardous marine conditions will prevail across the outer Gulf waters today as a cold front pushes through the region. Conditions could also deteriorate across portions of the local Atlantic waters on Wednesday behind the frontal passage, with generally northerly winds to 15-20 kts, gusts to 25-30 kts and wave heights potentially exceeding 6-7 feet later this week. Conditions will improve by the weekend as the northerly winds lighten. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 There is a moderate to high risk of rip currents across the Gulf Coast beaches as a front pushes through the area. An elevated rip current risk is likely to continue for portions of the Atlantic beaches for the rest of the week, particularly in Palm Beach County. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 80 51 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 80 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 80 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 81 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 77 53 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 79 53 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 74 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1209032 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 143 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front moves across the area late tonight into Thursday, bringing colder, drier air and blustery NW winds through the late week period into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will build back into the region by the end of this weekend keeping the region dry. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 730 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages... - A strong cold front moves across the region tonight into Thursday morning. Showers with a few embedded tstms prevail this evening, lingering into early morning to the E. - Strong, gusty NW winds develop post-frontal, with gusts up to 30-40 mph (locally higher across the eastern shore where a Wind Advisory is in effect). The latest analysis indicates the sfc cold front located along a line from near LKU to DAN, with strong gusty NW winds immediately in the wake of the boundary. Showers have been most prevalent across NW and SE portions of the FA, with the coverage more scattered across central VA. Elevated tstms are primarily located over N-NW portions of the CWA. It remains very warm for a late November evening, with temperature as of 8 PM still mainly in the lower 60s. The timing of the front based on latest trends is for the wind shift to arrive between 9-10pm W of I-95, pushing to the coast between 11pm and 1 am. Immediately in the wake of the front, there will be a brief period of wind gusts between 30-40 kt across most of the area, with 35-45 kt across Delmarva. With decent model guidance a wind advisory is needed for the area. There is also the possibility of these wind gusts knocking down trees and branches across the region. These conditions will be brief and last between 1 to 3 hours. Once the frontal passage moves through these conditions will die down slightly but winds will still remain breezy until closer to sunrise when they diminish further. Skies are expected to clear and weather conditions will remain breezy behind the frontal passage. With these clearing skies and cooler and drier air being advected into the area, overnight low temperatures are expected to drop to the mid 30s to around 40F W of I-95, with 40-45F to the E. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages... - Gusty NW winds continue Thursday and Thursday night. NW winds average 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph (highest coastal areas). - Blustery and much cooler weather conditions behind a strong cold front Thursday-Friday night. The strong trough will continue to hang around the area through the early portion of this weekend. This allows the area to start drying out Thursday with the persistent northwesterly flow. There will be multiple shortwaves transversing along the trough allowing multiple reinforcing shots of cooler air. The first of these push through Thursday evening, bringing additional gusty winds, some clouds and perhaps a few showers along the eastern shore. Otherwise expect most of the area to remain dry. Highs only top out in the 50s Thursday. Winds do decouple a bit inland later Thu night, which will make for a stark temperature contrast between inland areas and the coast. Look for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s inland, with mid to upper 30s along the coast. The second shot comes Friday and could potentially be cooler than Thursday with highs in the upper 40s across the Piedmont and lower 50s along the coast. The latest models depict the core of the upper low across eastern PA and NJ, with a rather strong shortwave diving SE across the eastern shore. Expect a good chance for showers Fri aftn into Fri night on the eastern shore, with much lower PoPs for light showers or just sprinkles more favored along and to the S of the I-64 corridor. With the additional cloud cover, Friday evening/night, low temperatures only cool down in the upper 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages... - High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the region over the weekend into early next week. Into the weekend and early next week the latest 20/12z ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with the synoptic pattern. The upper level trough will begin to move out of the area by saturday and sunday allowing a ridge to take its place. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the middle 50s to around 60. The breezy conditions will taper off late Saturday into Sunday as the trough moves out of the region. Temperatures next week are expected to warm a little next week as the high moves off the coast with highs warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Rain chances return to the forecast next Wednesday ahead of the next system arriving from the NW. Will note, by the middle of next week the ensembles do disagree with the placement and strength of the next system. However, they do agree on a potential system and Pops remain tn the forecast and stay between 15-25%. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 140 AM EST Thursday... The well-advertised strong cold front swept across the region earlier this morning, bringing gusty winds, showers and variable CIGs to area terminals. Conditions continue to gradually improve in the wake of the front, with a gradually clearing sky expected over the next few hours. CIGs have already returned to VFR inland, with MVFR lingering along the immediate coast from ECG to SBY through 07-09z/2-4 AM EST before returning to VFR. NW winds will average 10-15 kt through around and just after sunrise, then increase and shift to the W at 15-18 kt with gusts to around 25 kt from late morning through early evening. Increasing aftn clouds are expected, but CIGs should remain VFR, averaging 6-8 Kft AGL. Outlook: Gusty W-NW winds continue Fri-Sat, with less wind by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and flight restrictions are expected across N/NE sections of the area Friday aftn/Fri night. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - A Gale Warning has been issued for all local waters tonight due to strong NW winds behind a cold front. - Another period of Gale conditions is increasingly likely Friday afternoon through Friday night. Current surface analysis shows high pressure well offshore the southeast coast and low pressure over the Great Lakes, with a stationary front draped across the area and a cold front dragged across Ohio to Georgia. Winds are generally SE around 5 kt becoming S 10-15 kt ahead of a strong cold front. This front will quickly push through the area tonight crossing coastal waters 10PM to 1AM Thursday. Confidence is strong in Gale force winds behind the front as cold air moves in behind the front. Winds will abruptly become NW 30-35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt across all coastal waters. As such, Gale Warnings have been issued across all waters beginning at 10PM tonight. The strong winds will quickly subside to 20-25 kt behind the initial surge. A short period of sub-SCA conditions is possible Thursday, but then winds will ramp back up to at least SCA conditions Thursday night with winds W at 25-30 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across all waters as a weak trough moves over the area. Winds will be sub-SCA conditions Friday, but a stronger trough will increase winds Friday night to W at 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the Bay and 40 kt over the coastal waters. There is high probability (>80%) for wind gusts greater than 34 kt Friday night, but will wait for future model guidance to determine in Gale headlines are necessary for this surge. Winds will then remain sub- SCA conditions for the weekend and early next week. Waves and seas are currently 1-2 ft this afternoon and will increase behind the front to 3-5 ft tonight (locally higher is possible). Waves and seas will decrease Thursday to 2-4 ft in the Bay and 2-4 ft in the coastal waters. A ramp up along with the winds Friday is expected with waves 3-5 ft and seas 4-6 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>634-638- 650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ635>637. && $$ |
| #1209030 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 110 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure area spreads welcomed steady light to moderate rain today, before tapering to intermittent rain showers tonight into early Friday. Rain could mix with slushy wet snow above 1500 feet elevation tonight but no wintry impacts are expected. Another round of steady light rain moves through eastern New England Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure slowly progresses into the Maritimes for the weekend, with gusty northwest winds and more clouds than sun are anticipated. Dry weather then returns for Monday before an unsettled weather pattern develops again for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 730 PM update... Dry, tranquil weather continues this evening and for much of the overnight period. Clouds approaching from the west via WAA aloft, along with low clouds approaching from the east given onshore flow. However, much of the night will be dry. Leading edge of the rain shield is across central PA into western NY. Current radar and model trends still have the rain arriving into western-central CT/MA between 09z-12z, then overspreading RI and eastern MA between 12z-15z, possibly closer to noon for Cape Cod and Nantucket. Some of the heavy rain will impact the AM commute across western-central CT/MA, including Hartford and Springfield. Not as chilly tonight as previous nights given increasing dew pts and cloud cover. Lows 35-40, except 40-45 in the urban areas and along the coast given onshore flow. Previous forecast captures these trends, therefore no major changes with this update. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Thursday through Thursday night will be the main focus of the forecast, especially for those with interest in seeing diminished fire activity. The pattern makes a switch as the upper low over the Great Lakes and its surface reflection sink into the Mid- Atlantic. This spawns a secondary low pressure center along the frontal boundary just off the east coast which subsequently deepens as it lifts directly over southern New England on Thursday and retrogrades backs toward eastern New York Thursday night. A deep plume of moisture will accompany this system with PWATs on the order of one inch. Strong dynamic lift (35-45kt LLJ and 500 mb PVA) with the aforementioned moisture will lead to a blossoming precipitation shield that overspreads SNE from 2AM (west) to 10AM (east) and continues all of Thursday and the first half of Thursday night before a dry slot works its way north into the region. Thereafter showers become more scattered in nature with the low continuing to be just to our west. Rainfall amounts continue to look solid for a meaningful rainfall, with 1 to 1.75 inches possible; the heaviest amounts will be in the high elevations of western MA where easterly upslope flow assists. As for snow potential, there will be enough cold air aloft and moving in on the back side of the system to bring some wet flakes to the upper reaches of the Berkshires, mainly above 1500 ft. However, not expecting efficient accumulation; a slushy inch or two are most likely. As for the winds on Thursday, it will be a blustery and cool day with that LLJ overhead, easterly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph, especially along the coasts; it will be a windy and rough day on the our waters as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, damp and overcast Fri night, with steady rains breaking out in the coastal plain. * Gusty NW winds this weekend, with more clouds on Sat along with off-and-on showers. Seasonable temps but the winds will make it feel cooler. * Dry for Monday, but turning more unsettled into midweek. Details: Friday Night: Cloudy, damp and unsettled conditions for Southern New England continue into Fri night with vertically-stacked circulation continuing to meander around western New England/southern NY vicinity. However there still looks to be a round of steadier light rains which develop/rotate NNW from the southern waters into eastern MA, the Cape and the Islands. Looking at GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble members, there is a significant enough majority of members which keep this secondary burst of steadier rains into the MA/RI coastal plain with lighter intermittent precip over western MA/CT. However QPF amts are still pretty variable; while QPF amts are more commonly in the quarter to half inch range in the coastal plain thru Fri night, there are a minority of members up to 3/4ths an inch. By early Sat AM, this band of steadier rains should shift NNE into coastal ME/NH as the broader upper level low begins to pull offshore. The Weekend: Ensembles continue to trend toward a slower NE departure of the upper-level low and its cold pocket of air aloft for the weekend. Thus a trend toward cloudier conditions for Sat with off-and-on light showers, with better chances in eastern and northern MA, Cape and Islands. Less cloud cover in general for Sunday, with more in/around the terrain but with drier conditions. Highs on Sat in the 40s to around 50, and with a pretty strong NWly gradient flow and cloud cover, lows may only fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. With less cloud cover, highs Sun in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s Sun night. The cooler temperatures aloft and a robust NW gradient flow will also contribute to rather blustery to gusty NW winds through the weekend. Model soundings also continue to show mixing up to about 900 mb on Sat, and slightly higher around 850 mb for Sun with a little less cloud cover and slightly warmer temps. For Sat, NW gusts could reach into the 25 to 30 mph range during the daytime hrs. Strongest 925 mb jet of 35-40 kt moves thru Sat night into early on Sun, and we should still realize gusts around 20-25 mph into the evening for most areas, but could punch up to around 35-45 mph over the Berkshires, hills in Worcester County as well as the Cape and Islands. Still see gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for Sunday thru the early afternoon, then beginning to subside late in the day as gradient starts to relax and low level jet core shifts offshore. Potential for gale headlines for the waters, although over land, confidence in gusts reaching Advisory levels is lower but could be possible if we mix deeper. Will reassess gusts as we get into the mesoscale model forecast horizon. Monday: Still looking at pretty tranquil weather conditions for Mon with weak shortwave ridging aloft and modest SW winds allowing for highs in the low to mid 50s. Monday Night through Wednesday Night: A more active weather pattern is indicated by most of the ensembles into the early to middle part of next week, as slow-evolving trough energy circulating over the West Coast/Pac NW begins to eject eastward off the Rockies. At least one frontal system moves in during this period, around the Mon night/Tue timefame, although there are still significant differences in strength with this potential system. Forecast confidence is still on the low side in this period and stayed fairly close to NBM forecasts for this period until those differences shake out. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through 12z Thursday: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing. MVFR stratus initially (IFR at ORH) with dry weather for at least another couple hrs. Steady light to moderate RA with vsbys 3-6 SM now over the lower Hudson Valley then breaks out into BAF/BDL around 08-10z, and into central MA/RI by ~10-12z. Better chance for steadier rains eastern airports just after 12z. Ceilings may trend closer to MVFR/borderline IFR range as steady rain breaks out. Light E winds to start but will increase to around 7-10 kt thru 12z Thurs. Today: Moderate confidence. 3-5 SM RA spreads across all airports early this AM, which continues into early tonight. Rain will become increasingly wind-driven as E winds increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the E MA coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings continue, though ceilings likely to dance between 800-1500 ft most of the day. Took a pessimistic approach with the TAFs indicating IFR, however there could be MVFR intervals in between but difficult to pinpoint a timing. Tonight: Moderate confidence. Widespread 3-6 SM steady RA early tonight trends to more of an intermittent -SHRA or even -DZ between 00-06z, earliest south and later north. Steadier light rain likely to continue at BAF/BDL. Improvement in ceilings toward OVC MVFR interior, and become BKN/OVC VFR over eastern/southeast New England. Winds start E around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, though will become SE/S around 10-14 kt with lesser gusts to around 20 kt. Friday: Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings with periods of -RA interior CT/MA, BKN/OVC VFR ceilings with initially dry wx eastern airports. Later in the afternoon a band of rain moves northward from the ocean and spreads across eastern MA/RI, exact timing uncertain but likely not sooner than 18z. SE to S winds around 7-14 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR/MVFR with 3-6 SM RA developing around ~12-13z. Cigs could flip between IFR-MVFR levels frequently today. Wind-driven rain on ENE/E winds around 15 kt today with gusts 20-25 kt. RA tapers off around 03z to a intermittent light -SHRA, with winds becoming SE around 10-13 kt. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs initially, trending IFR-MVFR w/ 3-6 SM RA developing around ~08-10z. Steady light to moderate RA continues thru about 02z before lightening up. E winds around 10 kt today, becoming SE tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. RA likely. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This evening through Thursday night... Calm/tranquil conditions this evening with weak high pressure supporting light winds over the coastal waters. Conditions begin to deteriorate overnight as an area of low-pressure moves over the south coastal waters. Winds strengthen out of the east to speeds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots by tomorrow. Moderate easterly winds continue through the day Thursday with seas building to 6 to 8 feet. A few gale force gusts up to 35 knots will be possible, especially over the southern marine zones through Thursday afternoon. However, confidence in a prolonged period of gales is not high enough to warrant gale headlines. Nonetheless, solid SCY conditions will be present over the coastal waters likely through much of the day Friday and beyond. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1209029 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 112 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push farther offshore tonight. Canadian high pressure will build across the area Thursday and will remain the primary feature through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... No major changes were made for the early morning update. Tonight: Now with the front positioned offshore, strong post- frontal cold air advection will continue to follow for several hours and will usher in a slightly modified cP airmass as the night progresses. Clear skies will also continue for the rest of tonight as clouds have moved offshore with the front. As the winds have now picked up quite a bit, these breezy conditions should pursue overnight. Lows look to bottom out in the lower 40s well inland to the upper 40s/near 50 at the beaches. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even cooler by daybreak Thursday with wind chills dropping into the upper 30s/lower 40s. Lake Winds: Impressive and deep mixing profiles will develop on Lake Moultrie overnight as strong post-frontal cold air advection ensues with the passage of the cold front. RAP soundings support as much as 35-40 kt of wind at the top of the mixed layer by midnight supporting winds 20-25 kt with gusts at least to 30 kt, if not a tad higher at times. Winds were slightly with waves over the open lake waters building to 2-3 ft. The combination of increasing winds and building waves will make for dangerous wave action on the lake tonight with the worst conditions occurring over the central and eastern portions of the lake. Boaters are encouraged to remain off the lake. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A powerful closed upper low will swing through the Great Lakes on Thursday then stall near New England Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will expand across the Southeast at the surface. Dry weather and below normal temps expected. Highs will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday, then only reach the mid/upper 50s on Friday. Saturday should be a tad warmer with highs in the lower 60s. Lows both nights could dip into the mid to upper 30s inland, though we expect enough overnight wind to prevent widespread frost development. Lake Winds: Gusty west winds are expected to persist over Lake Moultrie Thursday into Thursday evening during which we have a Lake Wind Advisory in effect. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will maintain influence over the local weather Sunday through Tuesday. Not much going on upstairs with relatively zonal flow. Rain-free forecast in place with warming temperatures through the period. Main forecast concern remains the potential for frost late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as ideal radiational cooling conditions allow temperatures to fall to the mid/upper 30s inland of the coast. Frost is possible, mainly over far interior locations. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 21/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Now with cold front offshore, gusty northwest winds have developed and will persist into the day Thursday. Clouds have now cleared and will remain clear through the rest of the 06Z TAF period. Thus, VFR will prevail. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Gusty west winds are expected Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Strong post-frontal cold air advection will overspread the waters overnight with the passage of a cold front. Northwest winds will increase to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt for the waters within 20 NM and 25-30 kt with gusts 35 kt over Georgia offshore waters out 20-60 NM. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Georgia offshore waters beyond 20 NM with high- end Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore legs, including Charleston Harbor. Gusts could get close to Gale Warning criteria across the nearshore waters, mainly within 10-20 NM, but these conditions look infrequent enough to not to justify an upgrade to a Gale Warning at this time. This will be closely watched this evening and overnight, however. For Charleston Habor, northwest winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and waves building 2-3 ft. Thursday through Monday: Gusty west winds will persist over the coastal waters Thursday through Friday night, maintaining the ongoing Small Craft Advisories. For the Charleston Harbor, gusts to 25 knots are expected Thursday through Friday. Improvement is expected Saturday with winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Monday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350-352- 354. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1209028 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 106 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the Carolinas tonight bringing colder weather for the second half of the week. There is potential for frost or even freezing temperatures in spots Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. High pressure will move off the coast next week with warmer temperatures expected. && .UPDATE... The sharp cold front has crossed all SC zones and is nearing the Cape Fear coast at this time, with a sharp wind shift and strong, gusty winds up to 40-45mph as it pushes through. Much cooler and drier air will rapidly follow behind it before winds relax gradually as the night progresses. Leftover mid-level clouds will clear out over the next 2-3 hours or so, leaving clear skies for the rest of the night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Satellite imagery clearly shows the main front this afternoon still west of the area but making good progress east. Shower activity has decreased and really don`t expect much until the mid level trough moves across this evening via really good dynamics. Beyond this clearing with blustery conditions will develop. While the heart of the cold air arrives beyond this period there is some cold air advection and lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 40s with readings struggling to reach 60 Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Will see the coldest air of the season through late in the work week into this weekend. Overnight lows will be down in the 30s Thu night through Sat night. Frost will be possible but may be limited in coverage by dry air with dewpoints falling into the 20s. An impressive vort max rotating around a cold upper low across the Great Lakes will swing across the Carolinas on Friday. Moisture starved, it will act only as a secondary surge of cold air and will dip our 850 mb temps down to -3C to -5C during the day. Friday`s highs are forecast to stay in the mid 50s, potentially the coldest day since February 25 when Wilmington`s high was 55 and Myrtle Beach`s high was 54. The airmass will very slowly moderate Friday into Saturday, however with lighter wind speeds expected with approaching surface high pressure, better developed nocturnal inversions should keep low temps in the 30s with the potential for frost or even isolated freezing temperatures Friday night and Saturday night. Climate note: Florence, SC has a short period of climate records only going back to 1948, but this year`s growing season length of 271 days (2/23 through today) is the second longest on record, exceeded only by 1997`s 273 day growing season. Myrtle Beach`s 285 day growing season length (2/9 through today) is also the second longest on record exceeded only by 2009`s 286 day growing season. Wilmington and Lumberton aren`t approaching record territory yet... && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A more zonal upper level pattern will develop next week with upper disturbances confined to the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Canada. High pressure should move across Florida on Sunday, then offshore Monday. This should replace the Canadian airmass with a milder southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures should return to normal by Sunday and into the lower 70s beginning Monday. A cold front may drop south into the area Tues into Wed. Should see an increase in clouds, but may not be too much moisture with it. Looks like best chc of any pcp will be Tues night into Wed, && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A strong cold front has crossed through all terminals as of this writing with gusty northwest winds at all terminals. As the pressure gradient relaxes behind this initial surge, expect winds to gradually slow down as the night progresses. Mid-level cloudiness will clear out over the next 2-3 hours, leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. After sunrise, a growing boundary layer will promote a return of breezy west winds with gustiness returning around midday with gusts expected to reach around 20-25 kts during the afternoon as the boundary layer reaches up to around 850mb. Winds will relax again after sunset, but remain steady westerly. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR for Thursday through Sunday, but breezy NW winds could gust near 20-25 mph during the daytime hours each day. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Conditions still benign enough this afternoon with a very light southwest flow across the waters. The first of several cold fronts and or troughs is on the move however and in twelve hours or so winds will be west to northwest at 20-25 knots. Seas will build across the outer waters with the trajectory of winds to 3-5 feet then diminish a bit later in the day Thursday as winds take a brief respite as well. No changes to the timing/onset of the small craft advisory headline. Thursday night through Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will be ongoing and will last through at least Friday night. The highest seas will be in the outer waters in strong offshore winds up to 20 to 25 kts with higher gusts. Low pressure swirling across the northeastern U.S. and Canadian high pressure building southeastward out of the northern Plains will maintain a flow of cold, dry air across the Carolinas. The high will reach the Deep South on Saturday as low pressure moves out of New England into Canada. This should finally allow our wind speeds to diminish. Wind directions will back to the southwest on Sunday as the high move off the Florida east coast. Seas up to 3 to 6 ft Thurs night will drop down to 2 to 4 ft by Sun with minimal long period easterly swells mixing in. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1209027 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1254 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area tonight. Another reinforcing cold front moves through on Thursday, followed by yet another front on Friday. High pressure then builds in over the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 12:30 AM Thursday...A potent cold front is racing across ENC and is currently draped from NE to SW just west of Highway 17. Gusts in the 30-40 mph range can be expected across the coastal plain with higher gusts likely closer to the coast and along the OBX. Winds will relax behind the front but will continue to be gusty through the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are ongoing and will continue until the front is offshore (1-2 AM). A few rumbles of thunder are possible but it is not likely. Temps are currently in the 60s but will crater to the 40s and 50s by early morning as we settle into this Arctic air mass. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/.. As of 3 PM Wed...High temps return to closer to normal and even slightly lower than climo, with readings in the upper 50s to around 60 for most. Blustery conditions with wrly winds of 10-15 gusting to around 20 mph. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3:20 AM Wednesday... Thursday night - Saturday night...The next front will move through late Thursday afternoon and its CAA will send lows into the low to mid 30s across the coastal plain. Winds will remain strong enough to help minimize the threat for widespread frost/freeze impacts, but it`s not out of the question for some sheltered areas to drop below freezing. Saturday will feel very similar to Thursday with highs struggling to exceed the 50s and breezy winds westerly winds. Sunday - Tuesday...High pressure will develop over the southeastern US and extend up the mid-Atlantic coast. This will support a dry forecast and warming trend with high temperatures climbing from the upper 50s/low 60s on Sunday to the upper 60s/low 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 12:45 AM Thursday...A potent cold front is racing across ENC and is currently draped from NE to SW just west of Highway 17. It is producing gusty winds, showers, and a wide range of VFR to IFR conditions. As the front passes, there will be a sharp shift in wind with gusts up to 25-30 kt (higher along the coast). Skies will clear behind the front and all TAF sites should return to VFR within the next hour or two. WNW winds could gust to 20 kt through today but will dissipate after sunset. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Gusty winds will be the main aviation concern through the long term. With multiple fronts forecast to move across the area, westerly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will persist through Saturday. Winds will weaken to 5-10 kt on Sunday as high pressure begins to extend into the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 3 PM Wed...S to SW winds of 10-15kt expected through early evening. Big story will be strong arctic front that will blast through the waters later this evening through early morning hours. The wind switch will be very dramatic, and increase out of the NW with a 35-40 kt gust(s) as the front passes through. Because the gusts are expected to be tied to the fropa, will not issue a gale warning because of the very brief nature of the winds lasting less than an hour, but instead handle with MWS`s as the front nears the waters, which will be around midnight. SCA`s remain in place for all coastal waters and inland rivers. Have ended the Neuse/Pamlico/Bay rivers a bit earlier, but later shifts will likely have to reissue these as winds come back up late afternoon or early eve Thu with reinforcing fropa. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...Additional cold fronts on Thursday and Friday will generate unfavorable marine conditions that will persist through early Sunday morning. Seas will be the highest early Thursday morning (6-7 ft) and late Friday night (6-7 ft) with a slight lull between these times. A slight lull is expected during the afternoon, after which winds will become westerly and return to the same strength. Winds will peak on Friday at 25-30 kt with a few gusts to 35 kt. We continue to carry a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory for the central waters at this time, but a Gale Watch will be kept in mind. Winds and seas will decrease through the day Saturday with all zones expected to be below SCA criteria by early Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday, with min RH values falling to 30-35% inland combined with westerly wind gusts 20 to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Wednesday...An extended period of 20-25kt Werly winds behind a cold front tonight into Saturday may lead to minor soundside flooding concerns for the Outer Banks. Current thinking is these persistent Werly winds should remain just weak enough to limit impacts, but minor water level rises will be possible for soundside NOBX, Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and Roanoke Island. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ131-135-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156. && $$ |
| #1209026 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 103 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 - High Risk of rip currents with rough surf today - Cooler and drier air is forecast late week behind the front with temperatures dropping to the 40s. - Hazardous conditions over the local Atlantic waters and sensitive fire weather conditions are expected late week into and into the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 No significant changes to the forecast. Gave a somewhat generous extension to 20 pct PoPs across the south for showers ahead of the pre-frontal trough through the evening. Mostly dry conditions for most of the area, with the last few showers down towards Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast pushing offshore/south over the next few hours. The front itself has just reached the doorstop of East Central Florida, pushing through overnight, and exiting to the south and east before daybreak. Cool but not yet cold tonight as lows drop into the 50s for most of the area, ranging from the L50s well north of I-4 to the U50s from Titusville south to rural Okeechobee county. From Lake Okeechobee to near Melbourne south, lows will still be in the 60s, albeit the low 60s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Current-Tonight...Mid-level dry air has been a major limiting factor of precip coverage today, with a few passing showers impacting only a portion of east central FL this afternoon. A bulk of the moisture passed near Lake Okeechobee, and will impact Martin County over the next couple of hours. Additional scattered showers will move eastward near metro Orlando soon, but this will likely be the end to any rain chances for the remainder of the day. The approaching cold front has now cleared past Tallahassee, forcing erosion of cloud cover as it nears. The remainder of daylight hours will still be cloudy locally, with gusty south to southwest winds soon to veer westerly. The frontal boundary is expected to be on the doorstep of the local area by midnight, quickly shifting winds northwest and bringing much drier air (PW less than 0.60") as well as cooler temperatures. North of I-4, lows tonight will drop to the low to mid 50s, but with the front bisecting the local area, southern locations will still observe temps in the low/mid 60s. Tomorrow...Dominant high pressure will build in across the Southeast as the front exits South Florida creating a surge of breezy northerly winds of 15-20 mph. Even with clear skies returning, temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees across most of the area, with only the Treasure Coast breaking into the lower 70s. Tomorrow night will be the first chilly night of the season, with temperatures dipping into the 40s area wide, even reaching the lower 40s in rural Lake, Volusia and Osceola counties. While wind chill values won`t become a hazardous weather threat, the breezy conditions will make the feels like temperatures fall into the upper 30s - a clear indication that its time for the Floridian winter clothes to come out of hibernation. Friday-Tuesday...(previous) An upper level trough is expected to move east- southeast over the Southeast US Friday into Saturday with reinforcing cold air advection resulting in cooler air into the weekend. Winds will be breezy from the west-northwest Friday at 12- 18mph with gust to 25-30mph. Winds are expected to veer north- northeast into Sunday and then onshore from the east into next week. The dry weather will continue through the forecast period. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast with sunny skies Friday with the mid to upper 60s Saturday. High pressure is expected to build over the Deep South Saturday and then shift east over the Southeast US, in addition to the western Atlantic Sunday into next week. Temperatures will gradually warm as winds veer onshore into next week with highs in the low to mid 70s Sunday and the mid 70s to low 80s into next week with sunny skies. Lows in the upper 30s to near 50 degrees are forecast Friday morning and through the weekend before increasing into the mid 40s to near 60 degrees into next week. Minimum Wind Chill values are expected to drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday and Saturday mornings with the low 40s to low 50s forecast Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Tonight-Tomorrow...Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate tonight and early tomorrow as an approaching cold front sends a brisk northerly wind surge across the local Atlantic waters. Winds reach 20-25 knots initially north of Cape Canaveral just after sunset this evening, spreading southward to Jupiter Inlet by sunrise. Seas will build 6-8 ft up to 9 ft in the far offshore waters north of Sebastian Inlet. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this evening for all marine zones. Friday-Sunday...Hazardous conditions will retreat to the offshore waters late Thursday into Friday, with NW winds still at 15-25 knots. Nearshore seas do diminish below 5 ft on Thursday, but the lingering 6-8 ft swell will continue in the Gulf Stream waters into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 The cold front continues southward, with brief MVFR CIGs (BKN015) being observed along it. Have included TEMPO groups for MLB and the Treasure Coast to account for this. Behind the front, winds veering northwesterly and increasing, with gusts to around 20kts area-wide by daybreak. Skies will clear, as dry air moves into the area. However, winds will remain elevated, with gusts to around 25kts through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 45 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 67 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 70 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 68 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 46 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 69 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 74 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552- 555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1209025 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Seasonal temperatures have arrived for the CWA with pleasant temperatures in the mid 70s. We can expect cooler temperatures tonight, with widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Those across the northern Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country will see lows in the mid 30s tonight. High temperatures for Thursday will remain in the low to mid 70s with slightly warmer low temperatures Thursday night (low to upper 40s). Light winds will remain from the N/NE through Thursday night, continuing our dry conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Cooler high pressure remains over the Southern Plains and South Texas from Friday into Saturday night. The center of the high pressure moves east, allowing return flow, and making the winds south to southeast, which will give us a gradual warming trend over the next several days. Winds remain light through Sunday, slightly increasing due to the high pressure system moving eastward, and a cold front moving into South Texas. That cold front will move into South Texas and have a hard time pushing south due to the zonal flow develops, and stretches from central California to the Mid-Atlantic States, with most of the dynamics remaining in North Texas. So the front will take its time to move into the region. Wednesday looks to be the current timing on the GFS and ECMWF. As the front approaches, onshore winds will increase over the near and off shore waters so that small craft advisories may be needed after the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Little change with this aviation update. VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Light north- northeast winds will continue through Thursday morning. Winds will gradually shift around to the east-southeast tomorrow afternoon while remaining light. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Light to moderate north to northeasterly flow will persist through Thursday night. Light and variable winds Friday through early Saturday. Onshore flow gradually increases late Saturday into Sunday, becoming moderate and occasionally strong Sunday night. Winds Monday through the middle of next week are expected to remain moderate out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 45 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 36 75 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 44 75 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 40 76 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 49 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 42 75 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 43 75 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 57 70 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ |
| #1209024 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1225 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A cold front has cleared the region. In its wake, gusty northwest winds are ushering in a significantly drier and cooler air mass. The only update this evening were minor adjustments to better mesh with current wind, temperature, and dewpoint trends. This does not affect forecast low temperatures on Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A cold front is in the midst of passing through the region this afternoon while breezy northwesterly winds continue. Surface observations also show a sharp NW-SE moisture gradient characterized by 50s dew points behind the front and 60s to low 70s ahead of it. Satellite trends affirm a rapidly drying airmass with nearly all remaining clouds clearing the I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend. Cold-air advection drives temperatures down to the 40s late tonight into tomorrow morning (isolated upper 30s). These readings a slightly below normal. Wind chills bottom out from the mid 30s to low 40s with the lowest values are forecast around the Dothan- Blakely-Albany area, which introduces cold-weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. An expansive, negatively tilted upper trough rotating through the OH Valley will reinforce the cool & dry conditions by keeping Thursday`s high temperatures solidly in the mid 60s despite plentiful (albeit late November) sunshine - several degrees cooler than average. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Large upper low will continue through the northern Appalachians Thursday night and will meander east off the northeast coast Friday night and into southern Canada Sunday morning. The southeast US will be underneath northwest flow aloft south of the upper low and a weak shortwave will push a quick moving dry front through the area by Friday morning. Behind this cold front, surface high pressure will slide across the northern Gulf coast Friday night through Saturday night then elongate across the peninsula Monday and Tuesday. Very dry air with PWATs less than 1/2 inch will be in place through much of the weekend then slowly increase as the high center moves east of the tri-state region and return flow gets established. Late in the weekend and early next week the mid level steering pattern becomes more zonal, offering up a modest warmup as a low pressure system emerges into the midwest and a cold front enters the Tennessee Valley by the end of this period. Little, if any, rainfall is expected into early next week. High temperatures Friday may struggle to reach 60 degrees across the wiregrass and Flint river valley to low 60s at the coast after lows Friday morning in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs Saturday will be 3-5 degrees warmer compared to Friday. Lows Saturday morning appear to be the coldest morning this period with lows in the mid 30s throughout much of the wiregrass and Flint River areas. Would not be surprised to see a few low 30s in the more outlying areas. Lows closer to the coast will reside in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Temperatures moderate heading into next work week with highs returning to the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 40s Monday morning and in the 50s Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry northwest flow will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Only aviation concerns will be occasional gusts of 20 knots out of the northwest during daytime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 930 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Strong northerly breezes with near-gale gusts will prevail through Thursday morning, behind a fairly strong cold front that passed the waters during the day on Wednesday. Strong breezes will kick up again on Thursday night, but then breezes will slowly decrease through Sunday morning, while a large high pressure center moves from Texas eastward across the northern Gulf Coast. High pressure will elongate into a ridge across the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, so a turn to south or southwest breezes will occur. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A dry, but cool post-frontal airmass persists across the region through this weekend. Breezy NW winds continue tomorrow and help bottom out RH values to the 20s. However, given the widespread rains of 1-3 inches observed yesterday and last night and forecast high temperatures mostly in the 60s with low sun angles, fire weather concerns should be minimal outside of high afternoon dispersions. Dispersions and RH improve thereafter with gradual slackening of NW winds as surface high pressure builds in from the west. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Behind today`s cold frontal passage, little if any rainfall is expected through early next week. Therefore, there are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 43 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 41 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 45 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 48 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1209023 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 258 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Continued quiet weather through the short-term period. The arrival of a secondary cold front has brought with it NNW winds and cooler temps. Clear skies and NNW winds will allow nighttime temperatures to cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s for most of SE Texas. Make sure to bundle up before heading out to school or work Thursday morning, and Friday morning for that matter, as temperatures will be only a touch warmer. Gusty winds will become light and variable tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure settles in overhead. Thursday will feature similar weather, though a couple degrees warmer as winds across much of the area lose the northerly component. Skies will be mostly sunny to clear. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 258 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Surface high pressure dipping south across the Southern Plains is progged to push a weak, diffuse frontal boundary into SE Texas on Friday. This boundary appears to be largely confided to areas north of the I-10 corridor, and may help amplify the temperature gradient across the area. This is highlighted by the LREF ensemble, which shows a slightly greater spread in temperatures north of the I-10 corridor Friday afternoon. Daytime highs are progged to range from the upper 60s across portions of the Piney Woods area to our Northeast, to the mid/upper 70s over our Southwestern zones near Edna/Palacios. Winds begin to shift east/southeasterly Friday night as surface high pressure pushes eastward towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will slowly establish onshore flow into Saturday, facilitating WAA and moisture advection into the beginning of next week. PWs are low, but are progged to slowly trickle up above 1" by next week. LREF soundings indicate that much of this moisture is focused in the lower levels, with 65-70% low level RH. With isentropic lifting in place, there is potential for isolated streamer showers to develop near the coast. However, confidence and spatial coverage is too low to warrant the mention of any substantial PoPs during this period. Lows for Sunday night/Monday morning should be in the 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Highs are progged to peak on Monday, ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s. The slew of long-range guidance suggest that a series of shortwaves/troughs will dig across portions of the Northwestern CONUS/Northern Plains, beginning on Sunday and becoming more prominent around mid week. Deterministic models indicate that a weak cold front will push into SE Texas Monday Night/early Tuesday, eventually stalling out somewhere over the area before subsequently drifting north. While guidance continues to trend cooler and drier with this boundary, it will still be weak/diffuse in nature. The series of disturbances in the mid/upper levels are confined to the central/northern CONUS during this period. At the same time, WPC`s 500mb cluster analysis shows positive height anomalies across much of the southern CONUS the in dominant clusters, indicative of higher heights. Bottom line, this next front is poised to bring a modest cooldown, though temperatures will remain around or even slightly above normal. Tuesday`s highs will be in the 70s/lower 80s. Overnight lows drop into 50s/lower 60s inland and mid/upper 60s along the coast. Cluster 1 of the LREF ensemble members features lower 500mb heights over the Western CONUS beginning on Wednesday. WPC`s 500mb height anomaly cluster analysis depicts a similar situation for Wednesday when looking at clusters 2 & 3. These lower heights/negative anomalies among ensemble clusters become more pronounced across the central CONUS in the days following. Taking at look at ensemble surface dewpoints for KGLS, the majority of members suggest that moisture won`t drop significantly until Thursday (Day 9). All of this would suggest that the next stronger front/cool off remains on the horizon, beyond the current 7 day forecast. 03 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure settling in, giving SKC and light, fairly variable winds throughout. Winds should be generally more northerly than anything overnight, backing to be more northwesterly mid-day, and west/west-southwest by evening (before going to calm after sunset, anyway). && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon for northerly winds of 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots and seas of 5 to 9 feet. Winds and seas should slowly diminish tonight, though caution flags may be warranted offshore through Thursday morning. Onshore winds slowly returns Friday evening, then strengthens into next week, necessitating Caution Flags or Small Craft Advisories at times. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1209021 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1113 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 The surface front is moving through SELA this afternoon, as seen in decreasing Td. Deep SELA has Td of 70+ while behind the front values are in the mid 60s. This is the welcomed cooler, drier fall air we`ve been waiting for for so long. A downside is that the pressure gradient moving in is driving north winds of 15mph with higher gusts and even greater winds over the waters around 20kts (hence the Small Craft Advisory we have issued). We are behind the trough that brought rain earlier in the week and ahead of an H5 ridge of high pressure to the west over the Mountain West and moving into the plains. The H5 northwest flow is what`s bringing the cool, dry air. This morning`s upper air data showed we had a PW around 0.45 which is in the lower quartile for this day. Winds will begin to drop tonight as the front moves on through the area and the pressure gradient weakens. Tonight we are looking at low temperatures in the upper 30s in our SWMS counties and mid 40s elsewhere. We can expect a cooling trend through the weekend (more on this in the LONG TERM section), with clear and dry conditions at least through the weekend. Ran T grids with the NBM50 with some subtle tweaks especially to account for a bit of cold air drainage in a couple the river basins. /Schlotz/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Into the middle weekend, broad CAA accompanies the northwest flow with lows bottoming out Saturday night in the mid 30s to low 40s. As the H5 ridge axis moves on to our east we see a rebound in overnight low temperatures back up to around 60 by midweek. The surface high pressure moves east early to mid next week bringing winds and moisture out of the Gulf and leaves us looking at increasing rain chances early to mid week. /Schlotz/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will generally be light through the remainder of the night, with the exception of KNEW where 10-15 kt winds persist as a result of cold air advection across the relatively warm lake waters. After sunrise, expect winds to come up a bit (except at KNEW) but won`t get much above 10 kts as the pressure gradient relaxes with high pressure settling into the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Strong winds continue out of the north through tomorrow morning. leaving the Small Craft Advisory through 9am Thursday. At this time it looks like winds will be just below borderline Thursday, but may pick back up Friday. Into the weekend, the intensity does drop off more toward light to moderate as the direction shifts to predominantly southerly. /Schlotz/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 38 64 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 43 68 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 41 66 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 50 65 48 64 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 43 65 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 42 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1209020 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 21.Nov.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1204 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Current forecast was on track with just a bit slower progression of the cold front passing through the forecast area. Have adjusted the sky, and dewpoints to reflect some lingering moisture across the southeast parts of the area. A stray shower possible this evening (mainly over marine waters) along the southeastward-moving cold front, that`s now pushing into Flagler, and into southern parts of Putnam and Marion counties. The front should be south of the area shortly after midnight. Much colder tonight, with lows forecast to drop into the 40s for most areas, with lower 50s along the northeast FL coast and toward southeast-most zones. On the marine forecast, gale warning in effect for gusts of near gale force offshore for a few hours tonight. Rest of the forecast on track for small craft advisories headlines. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Northwest flow tonight will bring in much cooler and drier air, with PWATs dropping below 0.5 inches overnight for northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. There will be about a 30 degree drop from today`s high temperatures to tonight`s lows, most inland locations will see temperatures in the 40s, with the immediate coast and St. Johns river basin area staying in the low 50s. Surface winds will increase behind the cold frontal passage, with northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph gusting higher by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A series of dry frontal passages will push across the region and will maintain a brisk Northwest flow and colder, clear conditions. Breezy Northwest flow at 15-20G30 mph will dominate during the day with 10G15-20 mph winds remaining in place at night. Highs will remain at below normal levels only in the lower to middle 60s and low temps Thursday Night will fall into the upper 30s/near 40 over inland areas and in the 40s along the Atlantic Coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Winds diminish Friday Night as high pressure builds over the region this weekend. Under clear skies and near calm winds both Saturday and Sunday morning are expected to fall into the mid 30s over inland areas and at least patchy frost can be expected around sunrise both days, but too early to determine if coverage will be widespread enough for any Frost Advisory headlines. Max temps will remain below normal in the 60s on Saturday and rebound closer to normal values in the lower 70s on Sunday. High pressure ridge builds south of the area early next week with long range models still differing on the whether the next frontal boundary will stall north of the region by mid-week or pass through as a dry frontal passage on Wednesday. At this point have kept the forecast dry through the long term period as warm up takes place with above normal highs in the 70s returning early next week along with lows in the 40s/50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Skies have cleared as dry air has filled in behind the passing front. VFR conditions will prevail with northwest flow of 10-15 kt, with some gusts of 20-25 kt through tonight. Wind gusts should subside temporarily by sunrise but, start up again by mid morning as daytime mixing develops. Winds will slow to 5-10 kt after sunset through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Exercise caution levels are expected today for the outer waters ahead of an incoming strong cold front that will pass through the water this evening. Behind the front, strong northwesterly winds are forecast along with increasing seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions are in place beginning this evening for the near shore and offshore waters, with gale force winds in the offshore waters north of St. Augustine tonight as well. Winds will decrease slightly Thursday but remain near 20 knots through at least Friday, with seas slowly declining by the end of the week. Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk for the NE FL/SE GA beaches through the end of the week and into the weekend with the offshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Strong cold frontal passage is expected this afternoon and evening along with a few isolated showers. Otherwise a much colder and drier airmass will push into the region tonight and remain over the area through the weekend. Northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 to 30 mph can be expected both Thursday and Friday afternoons which will combine with near critical humidities to produce elevated fire danger conditions both afternoons along with pockets of high dispersions across the area. Winds will diminish this weekend with dry conditions remaining in place and the near calm winds around sunrise will support lows in the mid/upper 30s over inland areas and patchy frost is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 38 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 64 45 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 65 42 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 66 45 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 65 41 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 66 41 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ474. && $$ |
