Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Lorenzo well out at sea. Late this week worth monitoring for disturbances that could track closer to home.
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| #1248461 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 353 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today and will anchor over the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. A cold front will move through the area Monday bringing a chance for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 0230 Wednesday...Central CONUS ridging aloft begins to erode today while slowly drifting Eward from E Texas toward ARK while trough continues to depart Eward out to sea and new upper low begins to dig Sward from CAN. Clouds continue but clear from W E through the day as low/troughing kicks out, becoming confined to the immediate coast this afternoon, and completely offshore around sunset. Warmer today with the clearer skies but the Tds in the mid 50s keep it comfortable, MaxTs in low to mid 70s most, upper 60s NOBX. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0300 Wednesday...Clear skies and light CAA out of the N make for a cool night as SFC high begins to nose into the FA. Upper 40s in far NWern zones, low to mid 50s Crystal Coast, around 60 OBX. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wed... Key Messages... - We turn breezy and cooler Thursday and Friday with highs below normal and lows bottoming out in the upper 30s/low 40s - Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with above normal temps returning. - Next chance of rain expected late Sunday night through Monday a cold front moves through A cooler airmass builds in Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re- centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the Southeast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wed Night/... As of 0130 Wednesday...Sharp cutoff of stratocu rotating about low pressure offshore slowly departing to the E. EWN has best chance of remaining MVFR through WED morning with PGV and OAJ being subject to wobbles/notches in the cloud coverage, hence the TEMPOs here. ISO expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. Skies clear from W to E through the day WED. 5-10kt Nerly winds inland through the period with some 15kt gusts in the afternoon, 10-20kt with some higher gusts OBX. SKC and calming winds overnight, but low levels should be too dry for any meaningful fog development. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wed Night/... As of 0330 Wednesday...Steady Nerly breezes persist. SCAs in place for all coastal waters and PamSound. Winds pick back up with another secondary Nerly surge of winds after midnight tonight leading to another SCA for CroaNoke and Albemarle Sounds. Seas 8-10ft Diamond Shoals N, 5-7ft Cape to Cape, 2-4ft nearshore waters S of Lookout. Seas generally subside through the day while winds ease some, by sunset becoming 6-8ft, 4-6ft, 1-3ft for the same areas. Seas build yet again with the uptick in Nerly winds overnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Wed... Key Messages - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through Friday with strong Small Craft conditions expected As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Winds then increase ahead of a cold front Sunday to 15-25 kts. Seas will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Wed...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue this week keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in the forecast through at least Thursday. Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-204- 205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ231. && $$ |
| #1248460 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonable weather prevails today, ahead of a dry cold front passing through the region tonight. Cool and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles across the region. A warming trend is expected by the weekend as the high slides offshore. The next chance for rain is late Sunday into early Monday with the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Clouds linger across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA through midday, then becoming mostly clear all areas later today and tonight. The latest WX analysis depicts NW flow aloft as the local area is located in between a deep trough well off the coast and an upper level ridge across the south central CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is well offshore co-located with the upper low, with an expansive strong high (~1030 mb) building across the upper Midwest and western Ontario region near Lake Superior. The gradient between these two features continues to bring elevated winds closer to the coast early this morning. Lingering low level moisture and low clouds persist across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA, while a mostly clear sky is in place along and W of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures currently range from the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast where it is cloudy (and breezy), to as cool as the upper 40s/lower 50s in the piedmont with light winds and a clear sky. Northwest flow aloft will remain across the area today, and as the low offshore continues to move farther away from the region, drier air should eventually win out by the aftn, allowing clouds along the coast to finally scatter out. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast, with mid 70s well inland. Late this aftn/evening, the next upper trough and associated shortwave will dive SE across Quebec and New England, pushing a dry cold front through the mid-Atlantic tonight. Lows tonight into Thursday morning will be cool, generally in the 40s inland and in the 50s near the coast in SE VA/NE NC where a gusty N wind off the water keeps it milder. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Remaining dry, but turning cooler Thursday-Friday. - At least patchy frost will be possible late Thursday night/Fri AM W of I-95 with lows as cold as the mid 30s. Temperatures Thursday will be cooler with highs ranging from the the low- mid 60s closer to the coast and in the mid-upper 60s farther inland. A very dry airmass will result in deep mixing and have undercut NBM dew pts by several degrees in collaboration w/ neighboring offices. Not really expecting significant Fire Wx concerns, but do anticipate seeing min RH values down near 30% along and W of I-95 with breezy N winds. The 00Z/15 model suite continues to show good agreement that surface high pressure will move SE Thursday night, but will not become centered over the local area until during the day on Friday. The setup Thursday night into Friday morning looks favorable for decoupling in the piedmont, but with more uncertainty elsewhere due to the location. Given this, blended in NBM10th percentile, as well as the MAV values for the piedmont, but made only minor adjustments to the NBM for areas E of I-95. Expect to see lows in the mid- upper 30s for many piedmont locations (along with at least patchy frost in sheltered areas), with areas along the I-95 corridor generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The chance for a freeze is very minimal, but a Frost Advisory could eventually be issued in the far west depending on how things evolve. Near the coast, it will be significantly warmer given mixing, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. By Friday, model consensus places an upper level ridge from the Gulf coast region northward to the Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure becoming centered over the local area underneath the confluent NW flow aloft. Dry and cool weather will prevail with full sun and highs in the low-mid 60s. The high lingers across the SE VA and NC coastal plain Fri night, so have undercut NBM (blended w/ NBM10th) along and E of I-95. Lows will mainly be 40-45F areawide (with some local upper 30s possible). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures for the weekend. - The next chance for rain is late Sunday into early Monday. Good model consensus that the upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east to the coast Saturday, and off the coast by Sunday morning. This consensus is slightly slower than what the models had shown yesterday, so the low level flow on Saturday will tend to be lighter (and could even allow for light onshore flow near the coast). It will be mainly sunny, but staying a bit cooler along the coast with highs in the upper 60s, as inland zones rise into the lower 70s. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach from the W on Sunday, and advance across the area later Sun night. Increasing southerly flow should help temperatures rise well into the 70s, potentially into the upper 70s across the SE. Will note there is still a bit of uncertainty as to how much moisture makes it E of the Appalachians with the core of the upper low across the Great Lakes and OH Valley, potentially taking on a negative tilt (which sometimes leads to the precip pattern splitting E of the mountains). The 00Z/15 EPS is showing ~50% chc for seeing 0.50"+ of QPF for the event for areas E of I-95 and lower chance west, while GEFS is much drier with only ~10% for seeing that amount for areas along the coast. Will have chc PoPs, in the 30 to 50% range late Sunday, and high chc (50%) to likely (60%) PoPs Sun night (highest N). Generally drying out Monday from SW to NE, with highs in the 60s to around 70F, and dry with seasonable temperatures Tuesday. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure lingering offshore continues to bring elevated NNE winds to the region, along with MVFR CIGs for all terminals other than RIC where it is mostly clear. Expect BKN-OVC conditions with CIGs 1500-2500 ft through ~15Z at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG, before clouds scatter out between 15-18Z. Northerly winds will gust to 20-25 kt through early aftn along the coast and to 15-20 kt inland. VFR conditions are expected after ~18Z for the region, and a mostly clear sky is expected to prevail tonight into Thursday. Outlook: VFR/dry, though with N winds remaining elevated along the coast Thu. Dry with lighter winds Fri- Sat. An approaching cold front brings a chance for showers late Sunday into early Monday. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Relative lull in wind speeds expected today before winds increase again from tonight through the first half of Friday. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday into Saturday before moving offshore ahead of the next cold front. Morning analysis shows surface low pressure now well offshore with 1030mb high pressure centered near Lake Superior. Winds are generally N 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the eastern Ches Bay and offshore with lower winds observed along the western side of the bay and into the tidal rivers. Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay with seas offshore 5-8 ft (highest S). The pressure gradient briefly relaxes today ahead of a few surges of cold/dry advection expected to overspread the waters tonight into Thursday and again Thursday evening into the first half of Friday. Will maintain SCA headlines in the bay through the lull rather than canceling and reissuing. The SCA for the lower James has been canceled with winds averaging 10-15 kt. Additional SCA headlines will likely be required for the rivers and Currituck Sound tonight into late week. Winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt tonight and linger in that range into Friday morning as additional waves of cold advection move across the waters. Wind probs have backed off on the potential for low-end Gales with these surges but will continue to monitor obs and the latest guidance as mixing of stronger flow aloft is very efficient in cold/dry advection this time of year. High pressure finally builds over the area Friday through Saturday with much improved marine conditions. Flow become southerly by late Saturday as high pressure translates offshore ahead of the next cold front. SCAs have been extended into early Thursday evening for the bay and coastal waters. Winds and seas will remain above thresholds well into Friday in the bay and early Saturday for the offshore zones as seas will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. && $$ |
| #1248459 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 326 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonable weather prevails today, ahead of a dry cold front passing through the region tonight. Cool and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles across the region. A warming trend is expected by the weekend as the high slides offshore. The next chance for rain is late Sunday into early Monday with the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Clouds linger across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA through midday, then becoming mostly clear all areas later today and tonight. The latest WX analysis depicts NW flow aloft as the local area is located in between a deep trough well off the coast and an upper level ridge across the south central CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is well offshore co-located with the upper low, with an expansive strong high (~1030 mb) building across the upper Midwest and western Ontario region near Lake Superior. The gradient between these two features continues to bring elevated winds closer to the coast early this morning. Lingering low level moisture and low clouds persist across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA, while a mostly clear sky is in place along and W of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures currently range from the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast where it is cloudy (and breezy), to as cool as the upper 40s/lower 50s in the piedmont with light winds and a clear sky. Northwest flow aloft will remain across the area today, and as the low offshore continues to move farther away from the region, drier air should eventually win out by the aftn, allowing clouds along the coast to finally scatter out. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast, with mid 70s well inland. Late this aftn/evening, the next upper trough and associated shortwave will dive SE across Quebec and New England, pushing a dry cold front through the mid-Atlantic tonight. Lows tonight into Thursday morning will be cool, generally in the 40s inland and in the 50s near the coast in SE VA/NE NC where a gusty N wind off the water keeps it milder. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Remaining dry, but turning cooler Thursday-Friday. - At least patchy frost will be possible late Thursday night/Fri AM W of I-95 with lows as cold as the mid 30s. Temperatures Thursday will be cooler with highs ranging from the the low- mid 60s closer to the coast and in the mid-upper 60s farther inland. A very dry airmass will result in deep mixing and have undercut NBM dew pts by several degrees in collaboration w/ neighboring offices. Not really expecting significant Fire Wx concerns, but do anticipate seeing min RH values down near 30% along and W of I-95 with breezy N winds. The 00Z/15 model suite continues to show good agreement that surface high pressure will move SE Thursday night, but will not become centered over the local area until during the day on Friday. The setup Thursday night into Friday morning looks favorable for decoupling in the piedmont, but with more uncertainty elsewhere due to the location. Given this, blended in NBM10th percentile, as well as the MAV values for the piedmont, but made only minor adjustments to the NBM for areas E of I-95. Expect to see lows in the mid- upper 30s for many piedmont locations (along with at least patchy frost in sheltered areas), with areas along the I-95 corridor generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The chance for a freeze is very minimal, but a Frost Advisory could eventually be issued in the far west depending on how things evolve. Near the coast, it will be significantly warmer given mixing, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. By Friday, model consensus places an upper level ridge from the Gulf coast region northward to the Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure becoming centered over the local area underneath the confluent NW flow aloft. Dry and cool weather will prevail with full sun and highs in the low-mid 60s. The high lingers across the SE VA and NC coastal plain Fri night, so have undercut NBM (blended w/ NBM10th) along and E of I-95. Lows will mainly be 40-45F areawide (with some local upper 30s possible). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures are possible by the end of the week and into the weekend. - Chances of rain increase by the end of the weekend. Saturday will remain dry but the high will be offshore allowing SW flow to overtake the area, bringing warmer temperatures with highs reaching back into the 70s. Then by Sunday, the ridge moves off to the east, allowing a large upper trough to move in from the W. At the surface, a cold front will advance across the area later Sun/Sun night. Ahead of the frontal passage temperatures could potentially reach into the middle to upper 70s (warmest SE). Will note there is still a bit of uncertainty as to how much moisture makes it E of the Appalachians with the core of the upper low across the Great Lakes. Will have chc PoPs, in the 30 to 50% late Sunday/Sun night. Precip will likely decrease Monday allowing temps highs in the 60s to around 70F. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure lingering offshore continues to bring elevated NNE winds to the region, along with MVFR CIGs for all terminals other than RIC where it is mostly clear. Expect BKN-OVC conditions with CIGs 1500-2500 ft through ~15Z at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG, before clouds scatter out between 15-18Z. Northerly winds will gust to 20-25 kt through early aftn along the coast and to 15-20 kt inland. VFR conditions are expected after ~18Z for the region, and a mostly clear sky is expected to prevail tonight into Thursday. Outlook: VFR/dry, though with N winds remaining elevated along the coast Thu. Dry with lighter winds Fri- Sat. An approaching cold front brings a chance for showers late Sunday into early Monday. && .MARINE... As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Relative lull in wind speeds expected today before winds increase again from tonight through the first half of Friday. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday into Saturday before moving offshore ahead of the next cold front. Morning analysis shows surface low pressure now well offshore with 1030mb high pressure centered near Lake Superior. Winds are generally N 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the eastern Ches Bay and offshore with lower winds observed along the western side of the bay and into the tidal rivers. Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay with seas offshore 5-8 ft (highest S). The pressure gradient briefly relaxes today ahead of a few surges of cold/dry advection expected to overspread the waters tonight into Thursday and again Thursday evening into the first half of Friday. Will maintain SCA headlines in the bay through the lull rather than canceling and reissuing. The SCA for the lower James has been canceled with winds averaging 10-15 kt. Additional SCA headlines will likely be required for the rivers and Currituck Sound tonight into late week. Winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt tonight and linger in that range into Friday morning as additional waves of cold advection move across the waters. Wind probs have backed off on the potential for low-end Gales with these surges but will continue to monitor obs and the latest guidance as mixing of stronger flow aloft is very efficient in cold/dry advection this time of year. High pressure finally builds over the area Friday through Saturday with much improved marine conditions. Flow become southerly by late Saturday as high pressure translates offshore ahead of the next cold front. SCAs have been extended into early Thursday evening for the bay and coastal waters. Winds and seas will remain above thresholds well into Friday in the bay and early Saturday for the offshore zones as seas will be slow to subside. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1248457 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 254 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Gusty marine winds possible late week and into the weekend. - High dispersions for fire weather possible late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 An area of low pressure that has been along the eastern seaboard the past few days has shifted farther east north of Bermuda. The associated cold front extends southwest over the Bahamas and across Cuba. Broad upper ridging and strong surface high pressure located near the Great Lakes dominates the weather over the eastern half of the CONUS through Saturday with mostly clear skies and rain-free conditions expected. A weak backdoor cold front will move south and east of Florida late Wednesday into Thursday, but no real impacts are expected other than some gusty northeast winds over the eastern gulf waters for the latter part of the week. High pressure moves over the mid-Atlantic states by the end of the week and into the weekend with pleasant weather and rain-free conditions continuing through Saturday. By Sunday morning, the high has shifted farther southeastward between the Bahamas and Bermuda. A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest. This will bring a shift in the winds to the southeast to southwest and also bring a slight uptick in moisture over the region. A stray shower may be possible as the front moves through on Sunday. The front pushes south and east of Florida by Monday as high pressure builds in over the southeast U.S. Pleasant weather is expected for the first half of next week. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR, rain-free conditions and winds less than 10 knots expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 High pressure north of the area will produce northeast winds around 10-15 knots through the day. A weak dry front moves south and east of Florida late tonight into Thursday and will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in increasing winds with periods of Cautionary winds expected over the eastern gulf waters through Saturday. The only chance of any showers will come on Sunday as another weak front moves across the eastern gulf waters. High pressure then builds back into the area for the first half of next week with pleasant weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Pleasant weather expected for most of the period with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday. No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. Some gusty winds later in the week may result in some high dispersions across some of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 67 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 86 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 86 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 86 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 84 68 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248456 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 243 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy, cool, and blustery conditions today. An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery conditions Thursday with ocean effect cloud cover, periods of rain showers and stronger northerly breezes across the eastern Massachusetts coast. Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled as we move into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Point * Cool and blustery today Shortwave trough and cold front drop out of northern New England today, bringing blustery cool conditions to much of the region. Highs today will struggle to reach the upper 50s to low 60s due to cold air advection. Winds increase from the NW this afternoon with gusts of 20-25mph, which will make it feel like the low to mid 50s. Not anticipating much sunshine today, as even after the low cloud cover clears, mid to high-level clouds will filter in with the shortwave. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Point * Cold and blustery tonight * Cool and windy Thursday * Minor splash over coastal flooding possible Thursday afternoon high tide for north facing beaches. Temperatures tonight will drop rather quickly into the 40s by 8 pm and then bottom out in the 30s due to strong cold air advection. Winds remain blustery overnight with 15-20mph gusts as winds aloft increase. Strong cold air advection continues into Thursday, and with 850mb temps holding at -5C, high temps at the surface will only top out in the low to mid 50s. Thursday should feature more sun than clouds across the interior, which will help promote boundary layer mixing and gusty winds of 25-35mph. With the cold air moving over ocean water temps still in the upper 50s to low 60s, expecting overcast skies for the Cape and Islands with periods of ocean effect showers. Winds near and over the waters will be stronger than across the interior with gusts of 35-40mph. There could be some very minor splash over coastal flooding during the Thursday afternoon high tide for north-facing coastlines as offshore waves increase to 7-10 feet. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry with a warming trend Fri/Sat. Mid 70s possible Sun. * Cold front later Sun night and Mon brings a period of rainy conditions. Details: Thursday Night: Nighttime lows, while still rather chilly in the upper 30s to the mid 40s, will be kept up some by at least the continued northerly winds and also coastal cloudiness. Friday/Saturday: Transition period in the pattern toward 500 mb height rises and a warming trend to temps for late in the week into the early weekend. Sunny and dry with decreasing northerly winds, with highs on Fri in the lower 60s, and into the mid 60s to perhaps near 70 on Sat depending on how well we can mix. Sunday and Monday: Main forecast challenge in this period is the timing of a strong cold front which moves through either Sunday or on Monday. This will affect the timing of rain chances but also on temperatures for both Sunday and Monday. Leaned toward a slower frontal timing which would mean warmer temps on Sunday, which were already forecast to be above normal in the lower 70s, but mid to even upper 70s could be conceivable given 925 temps around +10C if cloud cover/rain from the front can hold off. Thinking rain chances increase Sun night into Mon, leading to a cloudy day Mon with periods of showers and temps in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today: Low Confidence Guidance is really struggling this morning as low level moisture and residual cloud cover has resulted in lower cloud bases then expected. Any IFR CIGS that occur prior to sunrise should be short lived, with MVFR CIGS continuing through about mid morning. MVFR CIGS will last much of the day for the Cape and Islands due to cool air moving over the relatively warmer waters. Less certain on afternoon MVFR coverage inland to the I-95 corridor as guidance generally remains mixed. Further west, CIGS should be VFR this afternoon, but wont rule out brief periods of MVFR with diurnal cumulus. Winds today stay NNW with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Tonight: Moderate Confidence VFR. with MVFR over the Cape and Islands. Steady northwest winds around 15 knots with 20-25 knot gusts. Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence VFR with MVFR over the Cape and Islands and periods of light showers for the East Coast. Very windy with northerly gusts of 25-30 knots inland, and 30-40 knots near the waters. KBOS Terminal...Low Confidence MVFR with brief periods of IFR possible through about 10z. VFR with periods of MVFR possible through much of the day as strato cumulus form over the waters. Winds remain NNW gusting up to 20 knots today, and up to 30 knots Thursday. KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence MVFR this morning becoming VFR by afternoon. Gusty NNW winds up to 20 knots this afternoon and 25 knots Thursday. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Tonight through Tomorrow Night Gusty northerly winds dominate the coastal waters through the end of the week. Northeast 15-25 knot northeast winds gradually weaken and become northwest from 10 to 15 knots tonight. The weaker wind speeds will be short-lived however, is 15-25 knot northwest winds develop over the coastal waters tomorrow into tomorrow night. Gale force gusts are forecast to develop on Thursday, thus a Gale Watch has been raised for the eastern marine zones. Seas remain elevated generally in the 5 to 8 foot range through the period. Seas a bit lower over the near-shore south coastal marine zones in the 2 to 5 foot range. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250- 251-254-255. && $$ |
| #1248455 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters this afternoon through Friday - A cold front is forecast to approach the area late this weekend into early next week, with increasing rain chances forecast && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf and southeastern U.S. today, with an area of surface high pressure slowly building towards east central Florida. A tight pressure gradient across the area will lead to breezy northeast winds this afternoon, especially along the coast. While PWATs remain generally around 1" across east central Florida, the moisture concentrated in the lower levels combined with the breezy winds may be just enough to cause some isolated shower development. This development is forecast to remain primarily across the local Atlantic waters through tonight, though the northeasterly flow may cause some activity to move onshore. As a result, PoPs maintain a roughly 15 to 20% chance of rain along the immediate coast. Storms are not anticipated with any of this activity. Outside of the minimal rain chances along the coast, conditions are forecast to remain mostly sunny across east central Florida today. Temperatures remain near-normal in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, falling into the 60s across the interior and into the low 70s along the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today due to long period swells. Entering the ocean is not advised. Thursday-Tuesday...Mid-level ridging across the Gulf and southeastern U.S. slowly drifts eastward towards the Florida peninsula late this week, gradually flattening out into the weekend as a trough swings across the central U.S. and towards the east coast. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to remain primarily in control of the local weather through the end of the work week, though some guidance continues to hint at a weak front approaching the peninsula and local waters Thursday into Friday. Lower confidence in shower activity resulting from this weak boundary, so maintain rain chances below 15% through Saturday. A close eye will be kept on guidance for Thursday. The next best chance for a cold front passage looks to be Sunday into Monday, with moisture increasing locally and leading to increasing rain chances (20%). Still too early to have any sort of confidence on storm activity, so kept mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. Will reevaluate and adjust as needed. Behind the front late Monday and into Tuesday, anticipate another area of high pressure building across the Gulf and towards the Florida peninsula, with a return of mostly dry conditions at the start of next week across east central Florida. Winds veer through the extended period, starting out of the northeast and east Thursday through Saturday and shifting to out of the southeast on Sunday. Behind the front, winds quickly veer and become northeasterly once more late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures generally remain between the low to mid 80s through the weekend and into early next week, with Sunday slated to be the warmest day with widespread highs in the mid 80s. Overnight temperatures are anticipated to remain in the 60s, with occasional low 70s along the coast some evenings. Outside of the normal day-to- day weather, residents and visitors are encouraged to maintain awareness of the rip current forecast. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated to continue through at least this weekend due to guidance hinting at continued long period swells. Entering the ocean is not encouraged when the rip risk is high. Be sure to heed the advice of local beach safety officials. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 High pressure is forecast to continue building towards the local Atlantic waters through late week. Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast locally as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in increasing northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots through Thursday night. Seas respond by building to 4 to 8 feet, with the greatest seas focused across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect across the offshore waters late this afternoon into the overnight hours, with small craft advised to exercise caution across the nearshore waters. Isolated showers will be possible today through Thursday, with the passage of a weak boundary possible across the local waters on Thursday. The pressure gradient weakens late this week, with boating conditions forecast to improve late Friday into Saturday. Winds become more onshore Friday and Saturday, before slowly veering to out of the southeast on Sunday ahead of the next frontal passage. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the local Atlantic waters Sunday into Monday, with rain chances increasing to around 20%. Winds veer from the southeast to out of the northeast behind the front on Monday, with seas generally remaining between 3 to 6 feet late this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conds are forecast through the TAF period. Isold SHRA will brush the coast next 24 hours as a slight increase in low level moisture overspreads from the NE. Will maintain VCSH at coastal terminals but not inland terminals. Light north to northeast wind through early Wed will increase 10-14 knots, gusting to 20-22 knots esp along the coast DAB-MLB in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 68 82 67 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 83 66 84 68 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 83 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 0 VRB 83 70 84 71 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 83 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 66 84 66 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 83 66 84 67 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 83 69 84 70 / 20 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ572. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ575. && $$ |
| #1248454 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 202 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build through Wednesday leading to a warming trend. A passing dry cold front Wednesday night will usher in the coolest air since Spring. The late week period will feature another warmup until the next cold front arrives Sunday night with cooler and drier weather returning to start the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure continues to build southward out of the Great Lakes. Other than some low clouds near the coast this morning, skies should be clear for most of the day as dry air deepens. A dry cold front will push through the region tonight. Northerly winds around 10-15 mph today will increase briefly with the front tonight. Highs in the mid to upper 70s today as thicknesses increase ahead of the front and just east of a ridge over the south central US. Lows tonight in the mid 50s behind the front. Winds overnight around 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none *Temps: below normal Confidence: *High regarding dry weather; Moderate to High regarding temps Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Dry conditions are expected with high pressure prevailing, sliding southeast and overhead Fri night. We currently have Thu night as the coldest night with lows generally in the mid 40s inland, with just a tad warmer temps Fri night. However, temps could get lower both nights depending on wind speeds/cloud cover, especially in the normally colder inland spots. Would not be surprised to see a few temps get into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none, except low late Sun/Sun night *Temps: near to below normal, warmest on Sun Confidence: *Mostly High, except Low to Moderate regarding rain amounts Sun/Sun night Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Will start changing air masses Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore bringing warmer/moister conditions to the region, especially on Sun ahead of a cold front. Some showers are possible later Sun west of I-95 and then across the entire area Sun night before cooler/drier weather returns Mon. Not expecting significant rainfall or thunder chances at this time, although confidence is lower here due to some uncertainty regarding the strength of this system. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Satellite shows a broad area of MVFR CIGs just offshore and over eastern NC/OBX. This could sneak into the coastal terminals overnight, but given that wind directions remain northerly, confidence is high that VFR should dominate. VFR expected over the next 24 hours, although LAMP probs do show a brief period of MVFR as the boundary layer deepens this morning. VFR should return by noon or early afternoon as dry air trickles into the boundary layer. Northerly winds continue today, slightly weaker than previous days. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure maintains northerly winds today. Wind will gust up to 15-20 knots this afternoon. A dry cold front will move southward across the region tonight, providing a brief surge in wind gusts and seas. Conditions are expected to remain sub- advisory, but seas could approach 6 feet for a couple of hours (primarily in the NC nearshore waters). The surge will gradually decrease into Thursday. Thursday through Sunday...Moderate to high confidence through the period. High pressure from the north will prevail through Fri night before shifting offshore this weekend. Elevated winds/seas will continue near Small Craft Advisory levels at times into Thu due to cooler/drier air moving into the area, especially in the NC waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1248453 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 An upper ridge over our region will break down on Friday as a large positively-tiled upper trough extending from the northern Great Plains to off the coast of southern California shifts eastward. The southern portion of the upper trough outraces to the northern portion Friday night and Saturday, and becomes neutral to slightly negatively-tilted as the axis crosses over the Mississippi River early Sunday morning. The dry weather conditions will persist through noon Saturday, followed by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, and then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Dry weather conditions will then follow Sunday night into midweek in the wake of the cold front. At this time, we are not expecting any severe storms, but are anticipating around six-tenths to 1.2 inches of much needed widespread rainfall with this system. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible. High temperatures today and Thursday will range from 85-90 degrees (around 6-11 degrees above normal) before cooling slightly Friday and Saturday, and then into the lower to middle 80s on Sunday due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances. Low temperatures tonight will range from 57 to 61 degrees inland and from 62 to 67 degrees along the immediate coast. Lows will trend warmer through the remainder of the week, and be around 12-17 degrees above normal Saturday night (middle to upper 60s inland and around 70 degrees along the immediate coast) due to a good fetch of southerly winds. Lows will then drop into the 50s Sunday night and Monday night behind the cold front. Beach Forecast: The LOW rip current risk will persist through Thursday night. Increasing low level southeasterly flow across the region will help increase the rip current risk by the weekend across our local beaches, with a Moderate risk returning on Friday and a High risk of rip currents over the weekend. /22 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening. Light and variable winds tonight into Wednesday will become easterly Wednesday morning, and then more southerly along and south of I-10 at 5-10 knots throughout the day as a seabreeze pushes inland. Winds further inland will remain easterly or become light and variable. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Small craft exercise caution conditions are possible over the weekend as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Overall, a light mainly southeasterly flow develops Thursday afternoon, with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow to start the weekend will shift southerly and then southwesterly going into Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest, and then northerly Sunday evening as the cold front passes through the area. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 59 86 61 87 62 84 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 65 84 65 85 67 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Destin 67 85 67 84 68 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 56 90 57 91 59 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 56 86 57 88 58 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 56 88 58 88 59 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Crestview 56 88 57 89 59 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248451 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the region this week. A dry cold front will drop south through the area tonight. Another cold front could impact the area late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-levels will consist of troughing off the East Coast and a strong ridge over the Central U.S. This will yield NNW flow overhead. At the surface, High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes Region, with it`s periphery stretching down into the Southeast U.S. A dry cold front will approach from the north tonight, quickly moving southward and through our area late tonight. Dry conditions are expected today and tonight, with minimal clouds. Highs will range from the mid 70s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s near the Altamaha River and across our far inland GA counties. The combination of clear to mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will lead to plenty of radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range from the mid 50s far inland, to the lower 60s along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The forecast area will be positioned between a deep mid level low/trough off the Northeast coast and a ridge extending over the Mississippi River Valley to start the period. The ridge will gradually shift eastward and overhead by early in the weekend in advance of the next weather system. At the surface, high pressure will extend across the area, with its center eventually drifting overhead and offshore with time. Dry airmass in place will preclude any rainfall. Temperatures will lean on the cooler side of normal, especially Friday when highs top out in the 70-75 range over most locations, except upper 70s closer to the Altamaha. Lows will be chillier with upper 40s possible over many inland spots. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large mid level trough will swing towards the East Coast on Sunday, helping to send a cold front through the local area Sunday night. The front will bring rain chances back in the forecast, but it doesn`t appear to be a significant rainmaker. Instability looks meager, so no thunder is advertised at this point. The front should make a quick exit, allowing high pressure and quiet weather to return for Monday and beyond. A brief cool down on Monday following fropa, otherwise temperatures will be right around normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: High pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes Region, with it`s periphery stretching down into the Southeast U.S. A dry cold front will approach from the north tonight, quickly moving southward and through our waters late tonight. An elevated surface pressure gradient will bring gusty NE winds this morning, with gusts approaching the 20-25 kt range. These winds should ease by this afternoon, while still prevailing from the NE into the overnight. Winds should start to increase again behind the front late tonight. We have a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the GA waters beyond 20 nm, mainly for 6 ft seas. Thursday through Monday: Northeast winds will peak in the 15-20 knot range Thursday into Thursday night following fropa earlier in the morning. Winds/seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, with the exception of the outer Georgia waters where 5-6 ft seas will persist into Friday. The pressure gradient will ease Friday into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore. The next cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely passing across the waters Sunday night. Southerly winds will increase ahead of it, with some gusts near 25 knots possible. Winds will turn offshore and subside on Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1248450 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 133 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the work week; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Near to slightly below normal temperatures this week with a low chance for showers Wednesday and Thursday - Boating conditions deteriorate tonight into Wednesday and remain poor to hazardous through Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Tonight-Thursday...Low pressure well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to push eastward into the open Atlantic as high pressure continues to build down across the eastern United States. Low level winds veer slightly to the N/NE and increase, with breezy conditions developing along the coast each afternoon. Overall airmass remains relatively dry, with PW values around 1-1.2 inches. However, with elevated wind speeds as well as sufficient moisture in the lower levels, isolated shower development will be possible. These showers will develop across the waters and will be able to push onshore along the coast from tonight through Thursday, but will have to the potential to move a little farther inland during the afternoon hours, especially on Wednesday. For now have limited rain chances to around 20 percent. Temperatures will remain near to just slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s across the interior and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. A high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue through Thursday. Friday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Behind Thursday`s front, surface high pressure becomes well-established over the eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday before gradually shifting toward the Atlantic on Sunday into Monday. There remains some differences in the model guidance aloft, regarding to southward extent and strength of a trough that will be pushing eastward across the eastern U.S. into late weekend/early next week. This feature will gradually shift a weakening cold front toward Florida either Sunday night or into Monday. Prior to the late weekend/early next week front, conditions look to stay mostly dry with onshore flow Friday-Saturday. Winds veer to the south-southeast ahead of the front on Sunday with increasing moisture from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday. Still much uncertainty in overall rain chances for the end of the forecast period, so have leaned toward NBM guidance at this time, with PoPs remaining below mentionable levels Sunday and increasing to around 20 percent on Monday. By early next week, winds swing back around to the north-northeast behind the front. A similar temperature forecast to this week is in the cards with highs in the 80s and morning lows in the 60s to low 70s. The warmest day of the next seven appears to be Sunday, thanks to return flow and plenty of sunshine in between partly cloudy skies. If you are planning to head to the beach, keep in mind that the risk for life-threatening rip currents will remain high Friday and into the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 As high pressure builds down across the eastern U.S. through mid to late week, a weak front will eventually push through the waters late Thursday into Thursday night. N/NE winds increase through tomorrow, up to 15-20 knots across the Volusia waters and 10-15 knots farther south. Winds then increase to around 15-20 knots out of the northeast across much all of the east central FL Atlantic waters late Thursday into Thursday night behind the passing front. Seas will gradually build as well up to 4-6 feet through tonight, and small craft should exercise caution offshore. Hazardous boating conditions will then gradually develop offshore Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, as seas build up to 7 feet. Started a Small Craft Advisory at 2 PM Wednesday for the offshore Volusia waters and then have it gradually expanding southward across the offshore waters through Wednesday evening. Boating conditions then look to remain hazardous across the gulf stream through late week. Boating conditions become a little more favorable into the weekend. Winds veer to the east-southeast and diminish, with speeds less than 15 knots, and seas also gradually decrease to 4-5 feet into Saturday afternoon through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conds are forecast through the TAF period. Isold SHRA will brush the coast next 24 hours as a slight increase in low level moisture overspreads from the NE. Will maintain VCSH at coastal terminals but not inland terminals. Light north to northeast wind through early Wed will increase 10-14 knots, gusting to 20-22 knots esp along the coast DAB-MLB in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 68 82 67 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 83 66 84 68 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 83 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 0 VRB 83 70 84 71 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 83 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 66 84 66 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 83 66 84 67 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 83 69 84 70 / 20 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ572. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ575. && $$ |
| #1248449 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 145 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today. The high risk of rip currents will extend to all Atlantic Coast beaches towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. - Isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly across the eastern half of the region later this afternoon through Thursday as a weak frontal boundary pushes through South Florida. - A breezy north to northeasterly wind flow will continue through the rest of the week especially along the east coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Mid level ridging centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to extend southeastward into the Gulf and across the Florida Peninsula today into Thursday. Farther to the east in the Atlantic, mid level troughing will gradually start to amplify and dig southeastward heading into tonight and Thursday. This will cause the mid level wind flow to shift and become north northwesterly during this time frame as the orientation of the ridge axis remains to the west over the Gulf. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an area of low pressure out in the western Atlantic will gradually slide southward through Central Florida today and then it will push across South Florida heading into tonight and Thursday. This will also keep the pressure gradient tight across the area which will allow for the breezy north to northeasterly wind flow to continue. While most areas will remain dry throughout today, some lower level moisture advection will be taking place across the Lake Okeechobee region later in the day as the front pushes closer. When combined with the development of the east coast sea breeze, there may be just enough lift to support some isolated shower activity later in the afternoon across the eastern half of the region. Any shower activity will be low topped due to the abundance of dry air aloft, however, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out especially across the Lake region and Palm Beach County late in the afternoon. High temperatures today will generally range from the mid 80s along the east coast and the Lake region to the upper 80s along and south of Alligator Alley. As the front moves across the area tonight into Thursday, with plenty of lower level moisture advection taking place out ahead of and along the front, isolated to scattered shower development will remain possible especially over the eastern half of the region. With northwesterly wind flow taking place aloft, plenty of dry air across the mid to upper levels will inhibit thunderstorm development and will keep showers rather low topped. An isolated heavy downpour or two cannot be ruled out along the east coast especially on Thursday as the front is moving through. High temperatures on Thursday will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 During the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend, as mid level troughing in the western Atlantic pulls away to the east, mid level ridging will slide over the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf on Friday into Saturday. As the ridge axis moves across the region on Saturday, it will gradually flatten out and become more zonal allowing for the mid level winds to become more westerly. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will build in from the north on Friday and then it will gradually slide eastward into the western Atlantic on Saturday. This will allow for mainly dry conditions to develop once again over South Florida during this time frame. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the region due to the stronger high building in from the north, and the weakening frontal boundary to the south of the region over the Florida Straits. This will keep a gusty northeasterly wind flow in place across the region on Friday, however, these winds will veer and become more easterly on Saturday as high pressure centered to the north shifts into the western Atlantic. With just enough lower level moisture advection occurring along the breezy east to northeasterly wind flow, an isolated, fast moving shower or two cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Any shower that does develop during this time frame will be low topped and short lived. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will rise into the lower to mid 80s across the east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region, and into the upper 80s across the rest of Southwest Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week as the latest guidance suite shows an amplifying mid level trough digging across the Midwest, Southeast and then eventually across the east coast Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance remains in disagreement with several items in regards to the mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal boundary. The ECMWF guidance suite shows a stronger, more amplified trough, however, it keeps the best dynamics associated with the area of low pressure further to the north which allows for the front to be in a weakening state as it moves through early next week. This scenario would bring a lower chance of showers and thunderstorms to South Florida. The GFS guidance suite does not amplify the mid level trough as much, however, it does show a more impressive mid level shortwave pushing closer towards the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf on Sunday and then across the region heading into Sunday night and Monday. This scenario would bring the threat of some heavier rain and thunderstorm activity to the region on Sunday and Monday as some of the better dynamics associated with this shortwave will be much further south closer to the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, however, it keeps them in the lower end chance category. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will generally rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas, however, with the strong east to southeasterly wind flow in place, some areas across interior Southwest Florida could approach the lower 90s during this time frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Rather light winds early this morning will increase out of the NE after 15z and will range between 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out across the east coast terminals as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north, however, only included VCSH at KPBI where chances remain highest for this cycle. At KAPF, winds may become more northerly in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters today into Thursday. As a frontal boundary passes through the local waters tonight into Thursday, winds will become fresh to strong behind the front for the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and becoming more easterly by the first part of the weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 3 to 5 feet today, however, they will build on Thursday and Friday behind the frontal boundary and could range from 6 to 8 feet during this time frame. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 1 to 3 feet today and Thursday, however, they could rise and range between 2 to 4 feet on Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible this afternoon and Thursday especially across the Atlantic waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current risk may become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 72 85 73 / 10 20 20 10 West Kendall 87 70 87 72 / 0 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 87 71 87 73 / 10 20 20 10 Homestead 86 71 85 73 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 85 72 84 73 / 10 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 72 85 74 / 10 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 88 72 88 73 / 10 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 85 72 85 74 / 10 20 20 10 Boca Raton 86 72 87 73 / 10 20 20 10 Naples 88 70 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248447 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Quiet weather persists with minimal rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The primary driver of our forecast through the rest of the week will be a ridge of high pressure. This will keep us generally quiet, though an inverted trough will ride along the south periphery of the ridge and into the lower to mid Texas coast. Unfortunately, moisture associated with this inverted trough remains minimal into South Texas and confined to the near surface layer and will not give us much in the way of rain chances. We could see a few showers in the Victoria Crossroads, but most of the area is expected to stay dry. By the end of the week the ridge shifts eastward as a larger trough moves into the central part of the country. This will allow a cold front to at least approach the area late in the weekend. It`s difficult to say at this time whether the front will have enough push to get through as it fights against a stubborn marine layer. Current forecast is for winds to briefly shift around to the northeast and dewpoints to drop, especially inland, but the post frontal conditions - if they make it - will not last long as we would expect return flow by Monday. After another morning (Wednesday) of near normal lows, increasing dewpoints will bring gradually increasing min temps through Sunday. If the aforementioned boundary moves in, lows will drop back to near normal for Monday morning. High temperatures will warm from only a few degrees above normal Wednesday to 5-10 degrees above normal by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast across South Texas. There is a low to medium chance for MVFR vsby over ALI and MVFR cigs over LRD in the early morning hours between 10-15Z. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable during the early morning hours, shifting east to southeast to around 10 knots in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A gentle breeze (BF 3) will persist Wednesday and Thursday. The flow is expected to strengthen to moderate (BF 4) out of the southeast by Friday. Low (5-20%) rain chances are expected much of the period, but chance could increase to moderate (30-40%) offshore Thursday night through Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. A boundary moving into the area Sunday could bring low RH values in the Brush country for the day. However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire weather threats. Rain chances are very low throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 63 87 65 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 93 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 92 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 88 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 93 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 84 76 84 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248444 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Life-threatening rip currents are expected this weekend into next week along the beaches of the lower Texas coast. - Temperatures warm above normal by Friday to record or near record warmth Sunday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A strong 500mb low along the West Coast swings into the Northern Plains by late this week, nudging the ridge across Texas out into the northern Gulf. This leaves weaker mid-level pressure across Deep South Texas with limited moisture. POPs drop below 10 percent Wednesday through Saturday. A surface low develops across the Southern Plains over the weekend and drops into East Texas by Sunday, dragging a cold front southward, likely stalling north of Deep South Texas. POPs have trended further down, now just briefly above 15 percent. The subtropical ridge returns into early next week, maintaining dry and warm weather. Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming to a couple of degrees above normal Friday, and then adding a couple more degrees on Saturday, bringing a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk back to Deep South Texas and near triple digit heat across the brush country and upper valley. The heat persists Sunday into Tuesday, with potential record high temperatures across the RGV. Life-threatening rip currents are expected to increase this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. Expect light easterly winds, generally below 5-10 knots to continue through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The pressure gradient continues to weaken with generally light to moderate onshore flow turning southeasterly into next weekend. A weak cold front may work south toward the coastal waters with a brief light to moderate northeasterly wind shift on Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 78 84 78 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248443 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, Updated FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will lead to enhanced fire weather concerns today. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend. - A slight chance of isolated showers and storms is back in the picture Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into the area early Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Remember back in the summer and we were looking forward to October so that we could finally get some relief from the heat? Oh how naive we were to think we`d have some fall-like weather for more than 2-3 days at a time. What do we even call this...Hot-ober, Summer-tober, August 75th (yep I did the math)? With ridging remaining in place going into Thursday, expect the heat to continue. Temperatures will remain near or above normal during the daytime with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through the end of the work week. Low temperatures will have quite a bit of variance depending on the moisture of the airmass in place. A pocket of slightly drier air moves overhead on Wednesday afternoon and lasting through the evening hours, which will allow for temperatures to dip down into the upper 50s to low 60s in the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. There will be more on the impacts of that drier air down in the Fire Weather section down below. As onshore flow becomes firmly established on Thursday, we`ll see low temperatures gradually creeping upward towards the upper 60s to mid 70s by Friday night. The ridge finally nudges eastward going into late Wednesday/early Thursday as an inverted trough pushes in from south Texas while a more robust upper level trough is pushing into the Plains. So, we lose out on the subsidence on Thursday, but we won`t have enough moisture in place yet for the PVA to generate much more than increased cloud cover. It`ll be enough to shave off a degree or two off of the high temperatures when compared to Wednesday. As onshore flow continues to increase going into Friday, we`ll see PW values surge into the 1.6-1.9" range. This will give us a better chance of seeing isolated to scattered convection along the seabreeze, but we could see that convection spread further inland as an embedded shortwave trough remains overhead. Going into Saturday, there will be a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, but FROPA timing still looks to be late Saturday into early Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected ahead of the frontal boundary on Saturday with the highest rain chances along and east of I-45. Compressional heating ahead of the front will lead to Saturday`s high temperatures reaching into the low 90s for most locations. With humidity being on the high side, heat index values are expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s...are we sure we`re in October?! There are still some timing discrepancies on exactly when the front pushes through, but once it does much drier air will filter in behind it going into early next week. While it will be drier, it won`t be much cooler...at least in the daytime. Still expecting high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. On Sunday night, low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s, but onshore flow returns late Monday leading to gradually increasing overnight temperatures going into early next week. This coincides with yet another ridge building in overhead...so the wait continues on the first real cold front... Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the period with light/variable winds overnight, becoming northeasterly to easterly through the day on Wednesday (between 6-10kt). Some patchy fog is possible at LBX late tonight, but any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will prevail through today. Onshore flow returns tonight and strengthens towards the end of the work week. Seas will generally be around 1-2 ft through most of the work week, then with the elevated onshore flow will rise to 3-4 ft Friday into Saturday. Expect risk of rip currents to increase towards the end of the work week as well due to the elevated onshore flow. Chances for shower/storms return as early as late Thursday in the Gulf waters, but the best chances for rain will be on Friday and Saturday as moisture steadily increases ahead of a weak cold front. This frontal boundary looks to push offshore early Sunday with drier air and a brief period of northerly/northeasterly winds in its wake. Batiste && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 With the dry conditions in place, we have another window through Wednesday in which high fire danger is creeping into our portion of Southeast Texas. The main concern here will be for an increased number of fire starts. We`ll have low RH hitting minimums around or below 30 percent today for inland areas. This will directly impact fine fuel moistures, keeping them low, and prime a "thirsty" atmosphere with a modestly high vapor pressure deficit anomaly. With ERC values broadly in the 75-90th percentile indicating drier than usual fuels, all it will take is a source of ignition for a wildfire to begin. The latest update from the Texas A&M Forest Service shows a moderate to high fire danger rating for most of Southeast Texas with a very high fire danger rating for portions of the Piney Woods for today. The winds, on the other hand, appear to be a bit of a mitigating factor. Winds less than 10 knots are anticipated through this dry stretch. So, while we may be in an environment conducive to fire starts, the lower winds should make them spread less quickly and be more receptive to firefighting efforts. Still, it`s best not to have the wildfire in the first place, so taking extra precaution with flame and equipment that can generate sparks is the way to go. Later in the week, we should see improvement in the situation as winds become more onshore, and more humid air works back in from the Gulf. Luchs/Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 59 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 88 66 87 71 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 76 84 76 / 0 0 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248442 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Any remaining showers taper off overnight. Gradual clearing tonight into tomorrow with mild temperatures on Wednesday. An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery conditions Thursday for most of Southern New England. However ocean effect cloud cover, periods of rain showers and stronger northerly breezes across the eastern Massachusetts coast. Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled as we move into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 330 PM Update Key Messages: * Light rain along the east coast persists into the evening * Winds diminish overnight with any remaining showers tapering off after midnight A couple more hours of rainfall over The South Shore, Cape, and Islands into the afternoon as easterly flow and a 30 knot jet at 925 hPa continue to support steady light rain/drizzle. Elsewhere, showers have come to an end, but extensive cloudiness remains in place. Overnight, the coastal low pressure system that has been producing gusty northeast winds and steady light rain across eastern southern New England finally pulls far enough away to bring an end to any remaining showers. North/northwest flow persists overnight and begins to usher cooler/drier air over southern New England. Lows overnight will be bounded by dewpoints in the low to mid 40s. Also, with the wet surface and moist boundary layer, we may also see some patchy radiation fog develop where skies clear and winds decouple, mainly across the interior. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night Key Messages * Mild temperatures Wednesday with breezy northwest winds * Strong cold front brings cold/blustery conditions tomorrow night As low pressure continues to move east over The Atlantic waters tomorrow, southern New England will be caught between high pressure over to the west and low pressure to the east. This will support deep north/northwest flow that begin to usher cooler/drier air over southern New England. Despite the CAA, 925 hPa temps will be in the 7- 8 Celsius range which, with deep mixing, will support mild surface temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s in southern New England tomorrow afternoon. Expect periods of sunshine tomorrow, especially across the interior, but some diurnal cloud cover is expected as well. Winds will be steady out of the north/northwest around 15 mph with some 25 mph gusts possible in the mid-afternoon. Low-level CAA continues tomorrow night as a strong surface cold front pushes through the region. This will bring 925 hPa temps down near 0C by Thursday morning. As a result we can expect very chilly low temps on Thursday in the mid to upper 30s for much of southern New England. Additionally, an impressive cold pool aloft should support mixing that will allow for 20-25 mph northwest wind gusts at the surface. Overall a cold/blustery Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Blustery with below normal temps Thurs; cloudy, periods of ocean- effect cloudiness, stronger northerly winds for the Cape and very minor coastal flooding for Nantucket. * Dry with a warming trend Fri/Sat. Mid 70s possible Sun. * Cold front later Sun night and Mon brings a period of rainy conditions. Details: Thursday: Deep longwave trough at 500 mb digs southward along the U.S. East Coast; as this occurs, a northerly pressure gradient will tighten up some as the coastal low which is forecast to be over the Maritimes begins to meander or perhaps slightly retrograde. A 925-850 mb thermal trough associated with the 500 mb longwave trough will also help foster not just cooler than normal temps, but will also favor mixing and potential for a rather breezy/gusty day, especially toward the coast. While still mostly sunny in the interior and even into the coastal plain, below normal temperatures are expected given 925 mb temps around -2 to 0C with northerly winds around 10-15 mph making it feel like the mid 40s (highs lower to mid 50s). Near the eastern MA coastline and especially out over the Cape and Islands, wrap-around moisture from the coastal low with the cooler air aloft will lead to a rather dreary period with ocean effect cloudiness, periods of ocean-effect showers, and winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. This will also favor a period of gale-force gusts on the eastern waters and have hoisted a gale watch for these waters. Finally, P-ETSS and Stevens Institute storm surge guidance shows forecast storm surge around 1.5 ft (to 2 ft in an absolute worst-case) for Nantucket Harbor. This could support another round of splashover or minor coastal flooding. Based on this past coastal storm, forecast surge values were running a bit high compared to observed values and impacts were minimal, so we really need to see total water levels around 5.2 ft MLLW before we start seeing adverse impacts. May need coastal flood headlines for Nantucket Harbor associated with the Thurs late-evening high tide around 928 PM. Nighttime lows, while still rather chilly in the upper 30s to the mid 40s, will be kept up some by at least the continued northerly winds and also coastal cloudiness. Friday/Saturday: Transition period in the pattern toward 500 mb height rises and a warming trend to temps for late in the week into the early weekend. Sunny and dry with decreasing northerly winds, with highs on Fri in the lower 60s, and into the mid 60s to perhaps near 70 on Sat depending on how well we can mix. Sunday and Monday: Main forecast challenge in this period is the timing of a strong cold front which moves through either Sunday or on Monday. This will affect the timing of rain chances but also on temperatures for both Sunday and Monday. Leaned toward a slower frontal timing which would mean warmer temps on Sunday, which were already forecast to be above normal in the lower 70s, but mid to even upper 70s could be conceivable given 925 temps around +10C if cloud cover/rain from the front can hold off. Thinking rain chances increase Sun night into Mon, leading to a cloudy day Mon with periods of showers and temps in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today: Low Confidence Guidance is really struggling this morning as low level moisture and residual cloud cover has resulted in lower cloud bases then expected. Any IFR CIGS that occur prior to sunrise should be short lived, with MVFR CIGS continuing through about mid morning. MVFR CIGS will last much of the day for the Cape and Islands due to cool air moving over the relatively warmer waters. Less certain on afternoon MVFR coverage inland to the I-95 corridor as guidance generally remains mixed. Further west, CIGS should be VFR this afternoon, but wont rule out brief periods of MVFR with diurnal cumulus. Winds today stay NNW with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Tonight: Moderate Confidence VFR. with MVFR over the Cape and Islands. Steady northwest winds around 15 knots with 20-25 knot gusts. Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence VFR with MVFR over the Cape and Islands and periods of light showers for the East Coast. Very windy with northerly gusts of 25-30 knots inland, and 30-40 knots near the waters. KBOS Terminal...Low Confidence MVFR with brief periods of IFR possible through about 10z. VFR with periods of MVFR possible through much of the day as strato cumulus form over the waters. Winds remain NNW gusting up to 20 knots today, and up to 30 knots Thursday. KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence MVFR this morning becoming VFR by afternoon. Gusty NNW winds up to 20 knots this afternoon and 25 knots Thursday. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Tonight through Tomorrow Night Gusty northerly winds dominate the coastal waters through the end of the week. Northeast 15-25 knot northeast winds gradually weaken and become northwest from 10 to 15 knots tonight. The weaker wind speeds will be short-lived however, is 15-25 knot northwest winds develop over the coastal waters tomorrow into tomorrow night. Gale force gusts are forecast to develop on Thursday, thus a Gale Watch has been raised for the eastern marine zones. Seas remain elevated generally in the 5 to 8 foot range through the period. Seas a bit lower over the near-shore south coastal marine zones in the 2 to 5 foot range. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ231>234. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235- 237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1248441 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1204 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Moisture begins to return later tonight into Thursday. - Frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Upper ridging centered just northwest of Shreveport, keeping the area, and a large part of the country, rather dry. The 00z upper air soundings around the region were around 1 inch, just above the 25th percentile. To the west, a deep upper trough and closed low were centered near San Francisco. To the south, an easterly wave was moving across the southern Gulf toward the Mexican coastline. At the surface, high pressure centered over western Ontario extended southward across the length of the Mississippi River Valley. We`ll see about 24 to 36 more hours of dry air remaining across the area, with dew points likely remaining in the 50s in most areas until the daytime hours Thursday, used NBM25 for daytime dew points today. It is entirely possible that we don`t even see a cloud over the area through Thursday afternoon. High temperatures are likely to be in the upper 80s to around 90 today and Thursday, with current forecast high temperatures not much below record highs for the dates. Overnight lows for Thursday morning should be a few degrees warmer than the past several mornings as moisture levels increase. Won`t rule out a few patches of fog Thursday morning in more fog prone locations, but as dry as most of the area has been recently, guidance may be overstating things. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally, upper ridging will eventually get pushed eastward by a combination of the easterly wave working around the ridge and the upper trough currently over California working into the Plains States by Saturday. The trough is expected to cross the Mississippi River Valley on Sunday. The associated cold front currently looks to move across the area late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Moisture levels are forecast to ramp up enough to support precipitation, at least a few showers, by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. GFS guidance indicates precipitable water values could reach 2 inches Saturday evening, which is above the 90th percentile. Should be sufficient instability to provide at least a short window for thunderstorms Saturday night. GFS runs have been a little quicker, 3- 6 hours, on timing of frontal passage, with the front east of our CWA by sunrise Sunday, while the ECMWF is back around the Pearl River Basin. That far out in the forecast, picking an individual model solution as a target of opportunity isn`t justified with the small difference in timing. Won`t rule out a strong storm or two at this point. NBM may not be drying precipitation out quite quick enough Sunday, but since dry air doesn`t really arrive until Sunday night or Monday, can`t rule out a few showers during the day Sunday. Beyond Sunday`s frontal passage, high pressure and dry weather through midweek next week, and potentially beyond that. High temperatures are likely to be in the mid and upper 80s Friday, and potentially Saturday, depending on when clouds thicken Saturday. Sunday highs will only be slightly cooler, perhaps mid 80s, assuming that clouds depart in the afternoon. With the cooler air more fully entrenched Monday, lower 80s makes sense, before warming a bit Wednesday as the surface high slips east of the area. Overnight lows likely to be in the 60s Friday morning through Sunday morning, except lower 70s directly south of the warmer Lake Pontchartrain. Current Monday morning lows look to be a compromise between GFS/ECMWF guidance, while Tuesday morning lows may need to be dropped a tad in later packages, as the NBM numbers may not be giving the drier airmass enough credit. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 All terminals VFR at forecast issuance time, and should remain so for the entire forecast period. Probably won`t even see much in the way of clouds until late in the day Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast by Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more variable and near or below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet through Wednesday. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots on Friday night and/or Saturday. Seas will respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters. After the front moves through on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 87 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 87 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 87 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248440 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 15.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1242 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk through Friday - Small Craft Advisory Outer Waters through Tonight - Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts: St. Johns River Basin south of Duval County. Increasing water levels again mid-week - Isolated Thunderstorm Potential Sunday && .NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)... A fast-moving backdoor cool front has pushed south of the forecast area this morning with breezy northeasterly winds ushered in behind it. These winds will not be as strong as last week`s Nor`easter event but gusts up to 25 mph at the immediate beaches will be possible this afternoon. Increasing winds may slightly increase the low-end Minor tidal flooding within the St Johns River through today (more on this in the HYDRO section below). Patchy morning fog could develop where winds have already decoupled but widespread dense fog is unlikely. Outside of the breeziness, a tranquil day is expect for the middle of meteorological Autumn. Highs will push into the 80s inland while the cooler onshore flow keeps coastal areas in the upper 70s. Not much change tonight. Mostly clear skies will allow for excellent cooling and let lows fall toward the mid/upper 50s for interior SE GA and the Suwannee River valley while other areas fall to the low 60s. The coast will be the warm region with lows in the upper 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night) Ridging will extend across the region, from a high centered over the Great Lakes region through Friday. Coastal troughing will be in place in the northeast flow pattern around the high, leading to elevated and gusty coastal winds. The high center will gradually move more toward the northeast into Friday night. The coastal trough is expected to dissipated Friday night, with onshore flow becoming more from the east and decreasing. This will be a dry period with temperatures trending near to a little below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) The high pressure ridge will move off the east coast Saturday. It will be another dry day, with the flow gradually coming more from the southeast through the day. Highs Saturday will be near normal. A cold front will approach far inland areas Saturday night, then across region Sunday through Sunday night. A round of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to accompany this passage. At this point stronger storms are not expected, as the best upper support will be north of the area. Southerly flow ahead of the boundary, will yield above normal temperatures for Sunday. High pressure will build across the southeastern US early next week, with dry weather, and temperatures near seasonal levels. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Cool front will bring a breezy northeasterly wind to all terminals today with VFR skies. There could be a few bouts of MVFR based stratocumulus for coastal terminals but prevailing conditions are not likely. && .MARINE... Northeasterly winds developing across the waters this morning will persist through the end of the week. Small Craft Exercise Caution will continue across the waters today and likely on Thursday. Rising seas has prompted a Small Craft Advisory across the offshore waters beginning this afternoon. Elevated seas will persist through at least Friday morning before winds veer southerly ahead on an incoming cold front. This cold front is expected to move over the waters Monday with high pressure building in behind it from the west. && .HYDROLOGY... Breezy onshore flow will flatten out and at least slightly reverse the downward trend in high tide levels within the middle St Johns River (south of Jacksonville) today. Minor flooding will be possible with both high tides today and possibly through the end of the week as mild onshore flow persists. Southerly flow this weekend will lead to lower tidal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 82 56 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 64 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 80 61 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 79 67 79 67 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 83 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132- 137-138-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
