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| #1253119 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 PM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1211 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions continue through late Saturday night in the Gulf and early Sunday morning in the Atlantic. - A high rip current risk continues this weekend for the Atlantic beaches, along with dangerous surf conditions. - Gradual warmup expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 High pressure over the TN valley early this morning will shift east towards the Mid Atlantic region today and eventually move off the coast by this evening. This will result in our low level winds becoming more ENE today and Sunday. With a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, breezy conditions will continue today with afternoon gusts of 25-30 mph expected. The gradient will relax for Sunday with gusts of only 15-20 mph expected. 00Z MFL sounding showed PWAT value of 0.90 inches and a lot of dry air above 800 mb. PWAT values will start to increase today, with values of 1.2-1.4 inches over the far southern peninsula by late in the day, with 1.0- 1.2 inches closer to the lake region. With the increase in low level moisture, some widely scattered showers are possible this afternoon into early evening, mainly along and south of Alligator Alley. Widely scattered showers possible again on Sunday, with chances along the coast and over the far southern portion of the peninsula. Temperatures will be on a moderating trend with highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s around the lake and SW FL, to upper 60s and low 70s across the east coast metro. Sundays high temps will be in the low to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A frontal boundary across northern FL early in the work week will keep much of the rainfall chances to our north, so it`ll be mainly dry across South FL outside of some occasional coastal showers. The next cold front will cross the area mid week and settle across the FL Straits late in the week. Little to no moisture will be associated with this frontal passage, however it will provide a bit of relief with temps and humidity dropping back to seasonal norms. Highs early in the week will be in the low to middle 80s, and low temps will be in the 60s/70s. After the frontal passage, highs the rest of the week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and low temps will be in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR expected to prevail through the next 24 hours at all terminals. A few periods of MVFR cigs/vis will be possible around TMB and MIA with quick showers this afternoon. NE winds will be breezy with gusts of 25-30 kts possible through the early evening. These breezy winds will continue tonight and tomorrow, although should not be gusty overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Hazardous winds and seas continue today for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. NNE winds 20-25 kts expected through late tonight for the Gulf waters and into early Sunday morning for the Atlantic waters. Seas 3-6 ft in the Gulf and 6-10 ft in the Atlantic. Conditions improve on Sunday, however cautionary easterly winds will remain in the Atlantic into early this upcoming week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Strong easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents this weekend for the Atlantic beaches. An elevated risk will remain into early this upcoming week. With the strong easterly flow this weekend, waves of 6-8 ft in the surf zone are possible along portions of the Atlantic beaches this morning through Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 71 82 72 83 / 30 10 10 10 West Kendall 68 83 69 84 / 30 10 10 10 Opa-Locka 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 Homestead 71 81 71 83 / 40 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 71 81 71 81 / 20 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 71 81 71 82 / 20 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 70 81 71 82 / 10 20 10 10 Boca Raton 70 82 71 83 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 66 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1253117 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 PM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1213 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions persist today. A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local beaches. - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, though some isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out. - Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions forecast mid to late week behind the front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Made some small changes to the forecast based on latest trends, increasing sky cover and also rain chances (up to 30-40%) along the Treasure Coast where ongoing light showers continue. Guidance still favors this activity decreasing some into the afternoon. However, with a breezy low level onshore flow and sufficient low level moisture still can`t rule out additional isolated showers pushing onshore along the coast through the remainder of today, mainly near to south of Melbourne. Otherwise, forecast largely remains on track with mostly dry conditions forecast elsewhere across east central Florida and skies partly to mostly cloudy. Highs will be slightly below normal in the low to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US will gradually lift northeastward today towards the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to persist thanks to PWATs of less than an inch. However, winds veer easterly across the area today, and some low-topped, isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters. There is a low chance for some of these showers to move onshore due to the easterly flow, so have a 15% chance for rain primarily from the Cape southward through the morning hours. CAM guidance then indicates activity waning into the afternoon hours, with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the surface high is forecast to weaken and push offshore as an area of low pressure and its attendant cold front move eastward across the central US. Moisture continues to increase locally thanks to the persistent easterly flow, with a return of rain chances across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide. At the local beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are forecast today due to higher seas and persistent, strong onshore flow. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. Sunday-Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front moving across the central US is anticipated to stall out across the southeastern US late this weekend into early next week, just north of the Florida peninsula. This will result in persistent onshore flow and increasing moisture across east central Florida through Monday, which will support isolated showers across portions of east central Florida and isolated to scattered showers across the local Atlantic waters. Monday into Tuesday, and area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary across the Gulf. This low will lift northeastward into Tuesday, moving from the Gulf towards the Mid- Atlantic. This will finally drag a cold front across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Rain chances are forecast to increase out ahead of the front, with PoPs currently reaching 20-50% areawide, with the greatest rain chances focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. The environment looks unfavorable for storm development, so continued to leave out mention of any thunder for the time being. The front will move southward across the peninsula into the overnight hours, with activity gradually diminishing as drier air moves in behind the front. Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Monday, increasing into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally remain in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible across the north on Tuesday night. Wednesday-Friday...The front sags south of the area early on Wednesday, with an area of surface high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern US. Dry air settles across the Florida peninsula, which will keep conditions mostly dry locally mid to late week. Northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday eventually veer to out of the east to south-southeast on Friday, which will help advect moisture northward towards east central Florida late this week into the weekend. A return of low rain chances will be possible late Friday with the next possible frontal passage occurring over the weekend. Through Friday, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 70s to low 80s, with the temperature gradient going from north to south, respectively. Lows generally in the 50s to low 60s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Morning Update...Winds coming in a little stronger and seas a little higher across the Treasure Coast waters, with easterly winds around to just above 20 knots and seas 5-7 feet. Have therefore issued a Small Craft Advisory for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nautical miles that will continue through this evening. Farther north, small craft should continue to exercise caution for easterly winds around 15-20 knots and seas 4-6 feet. Previous Discussion... Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through at least today and into tonight. Winds veer onshore as the surface high to the north moves northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas maintain between 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution across all local Atlantic waters due to these poor boating conditions. Late Sunday and into early next week, onshore winds subside to 10 to 15 knots, with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the south-southwest ahead of it at 15 to 20 knots and then veering to out of the north on Wednesday behind the front at 10 to 15 knots. Portions of the offshore waters may build back to 6 feet very briefly Tuesday into Wednesday, but the vast majority of the waters are anticipated to remain between 2 to 5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day, with the greatest rain chances forecast on Tuesday out ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday, with dry conditions anticipated once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1209 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Increasing low-level moisture is leading to a broken deck of VFR stratus confined mainly to FL035-FL050 that will persist through much of the day into tonight (especially closer to the coast). Otherwise, breezy east winds with peak gusts of 22-25 knots along the coast will subside after sunset, especially over interior terminals where they are also expected to back to the northeast overnight. There is little to no signal for fog overnight at this time, with meager chances confined to terminals north and west of our area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 77 62 76 / 10 10 10 20 MCO 61 80 63 79 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 64 79 65 79 / 20 20 10 30 VRB 64 79 65 80 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 57 79 60 79 / 10 10 10 10 SFB 59 79 62 79 / 10 10 10 20 ORL 60 79 63 79 / 10 10 10 20 FPR 64 79 65 80 / 20 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1253115 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 PM 29.Nov.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1023 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Elevated fire danger this afternoon in Southeast AL and portions of Southwest GA due to low relative humidity and ongoing drought. - A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. - There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend. - There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rains late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Latest guidance indicates lower RH this afternoon, mainly in Southeast AL and in Southwest GA from the Flint River Valley northwestward, ranging from 25 to 30%. As a result, elevated fire danger can be expected in these areas again this aftn. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Surface high pressure will slide eastward with surface winds becoming easterly. The cool and dry airmass will start to modify today with increasing dewpoints and highs ranging from the lower 60s across the northern areas to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend. Overnight lows tonight will be milder compared to the last couple of nights with mid 40s to low 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Rain chances continue to look high for early next week as a fairly strong upper level trough affects the area and interacts with a surface frontal boundary draped across the region. The 00z GFS develops an 850 mb jet of 40-50 knots across the area on Monday night. There should be plenty of forcing for widespread rain with the heaviest amounts across the western half of the area. Given the dynamics, a few thunderstorms may also occur on Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak instability moves inland. The severe weather threat will likely depend on how much instability can recover northward as shear will likely be high. This system will exit later on Tuesday with a dry day expected on Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, another system could approach with another chance of rain by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Cloud-level moisture will advect in overnight in association with a southeast low-level jet. There is uncertainty with respect to the depth and extent of the moisture across the terminals which translates into a lower confidence forecast, including the timing. Overall, the strongest signal for low clouds is at ABY and VLD, where we`re most aggressive with lowering cigs to MVFR after 06Z with IFR possible. Included MVFR cigs at TLH starting ~05Z and a TEMPO for MVFR cigs around sunrise at ECP. At DHN, cannot rule out restrictions, but maintained VFR given the low probability. Expect a return to VFR around 15Z although cannot rule out brief MVFR cigs given cloud bases in the 3-4k ft range. Aforementioned low-level jet atop decoupling boundary layer is expected to lead to Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at ABY after ~06Z but not at VLD attm as the jet begins to pull away as surface winds subside. && .MARINE... Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. Another surge of easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots tonight admonishes small craft operators to exercise caution. A strong cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday. This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. In the meantime, extreme to exceptional drought continues. The most recent local drought information can be found by visiting www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 66 54 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 63 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 Albany 62 45 71 49 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 66 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 57 70 60 / 0 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1253114 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Increasing moisture, instability, and freshening breezes this afternoon and evening will lead to chances of rain along with the potential for thunderstorms. -Breezy to windy conditions continue through early this evening, before slackening overnight. -Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected for all Keys coastal waters through at least this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 We continue to see windy conditions across the Florida Keys this morning. Across the marine platforms we are observing 20 to 25 knots with the Florida Bay being the only exception this morning at near 15 knots. These winds remain elevated due to the proximity of the cold front that passed through the other day. It has now begun lifting back northward as a warm front and the pressure gradient along this baroclinic zone remains tightened. This is also allowing for moisture to surge and pool along and behind the leading edge of this warm front. For now we`ve only observed fast moving showers but as the front gets closer to the area we could see embedded isolated thunderstorms develop. Made only minor adjustments to the winds to account for the slower transition this morning, while still keeping the same magnitude for this afternoon. Rain chances were left alone for now with the highest chances out across the Straits of Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A frontal boundary south of the area, paired with a dominant surface high over the eastern CONUS, will maintain fresh to strong northeasterly breezes this afternoon, and Small Craft Advisories will likely extend through tonight. As the front decays and the high shifts northeastward, breezes will begin to slacken by early Sunday. Another cold front may be on the horizon for the middle of the week, reflected in the breezes turning around the clock ahead of it. Shower activity will wax and wane throughout the marine forecast period. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected outside of any quick moving rain shower this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, instability will increase and could support a few isolated thunderstorms. Timing and exact location is limiting the use of VCTS at this time. Otherwise, near surface winds of east-northeast near 20 knots, gusting higher at times will prevail through the afternoon and early evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The cool snap continues across the Florida Keys early this morning. Temperatures along the Island Chain have been quite steady overnight remaining in the mid 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. The cool temperatures are being met with a consistent breeze giving it the Florida winter chill to the air. Strong surface high pressure is centered over the Appalachian Mountains of Virginia and West Virginia. This continues to promote moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail at communities along the Island Chain. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows most of the cloud cover remaining over the marine waters to the south and west of the Island Chain with KBYX radar not detecting any showers associated with these clouds. .FORECAST... The forecast for the next several days will be dominated by a series of high pressure systems traversing across the eastern United States. This will keep a healthy pressure gradient across the area resulting in moderate to fresh northeast breezes this morning strengthening to fresh to strong northeast to east breezes for this afternoon and evening. The cold front that moved through yesterday will start to move back to the northwest as a warm front shifting breezes to the northeast to east. Also, looking at GOES Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products, the leading edge to much moister air is loitering just outside of the Keys coverage area where PWAT values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches are being estimated compared to 0.7 to 1 inch currently over the Keys. Since we have a moisture, wind, and instability surge waiting in the wings, there will no doubt be an expected increase in shower activity across the area later this afternoon and evening. Therefore, timing was introduced to the forecast keeping slight chances in this morning for the Island Chain with chances for the afternoon and tonight. All the ingredients are coming together for an active afternoon and evening. Most of this shower activity will be driven by speed convergence across the area with some directional convergence. Add in the instability to this and now these collisions can lead to potential for thunderstorms in a ripened moist environment, especially over the Straits. Breezes will begin to dramatically slacken overnight Saturday into Sunday. Another high will move across the eastern United States taking the place of the previous high, though, this one won`t be as strong. Therefore, expect mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes to continue through Monday evening before shifting to the east to southeast and further slackening overnight through Tuesday night. Moisture will remain with the main catalyst for showers being driven by mostly speed or directional convergence and other mesoscale processes or remnant boundaries. Another frontal boundary is expected to approach the Keys mid to late week due to a developing coastal low off the Carolina coast. However, before the front approaches, there may be a time frame where the winds go light and variable along with dew points climbing into the lower to mid 70s due to the southeast to south breezes pumping up the dew points. Observations in Florida Bay would suggest SST`s in the mid to upper 60s. If the dew points are able to get close to this along with light and variable wind flow, there may be a window of time for sea fog to develop. We continue to keep an eye on this. The details still remain murky in regards to the front. Some guidance pushes this front through and others stall it right over the Keys. Details will become clearer in the coming days. Stay tuned! && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 72 79 74 / 40 50 20 10 Marathon 77 73 80 73 / 40 50 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1253113 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1008 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions persist through tonight. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, generally cool weather continues through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind. High pressure was centered over the forecast area this morning, allowing for mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temps as of 10 AM ranged from the mid 30s to around 40F with most locations in the upper 30s. The flow aloft was quasi- zonal behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low continue to develop. High pressure will remain over the area today before moving offshore this evening into tonight. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid 40s for most (upper 40s are possible across far SE VA/NE NC). Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight lows should still be cold with 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and warmer temps E/SE. - Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal. Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET) keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but will discuss this in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC. - A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC. - Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning, though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around 20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1" only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning. With (slowly) increasing temps, don`t foresee this event being a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only 0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any threat for winter precip would drop to zero. Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For >0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide. Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area (minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some frozen precip inland (confidence is very low). A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest" day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 530 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail through tonight with dry wx expected. A 5-8 kt N/NW wind is expected at SBY/ORF/ECG today, with light and variable winds elsewhere. High clouds overspread the region and thicken this evening and tonight ahead of a cold front. Outlook: Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions to MVFR are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EST Saturday... - Extended Small Craft Advisories through 10 AM this morning due to elevated NW winds. - Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front. - A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible. NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast. As the area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish. For now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 10 AM. The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. The models are in sync with the timing of the front moving through the area Sunday evening. There should be enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level winds. The only potential issue could be the upper trough is lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend of the SCA level winds. So for now, will not add a new headline for possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday. High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into Early Tuesday Morning. This will allow a period of calmer conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of the E- SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as a coastal low develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253112 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions persist today. A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local beaches. - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, though some isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out. - Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions forecast mid to late week behind the front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Made some small changes to the forecast based on latest trends, increasing sky cover and also rain chances (up to 30-40%) along the Treasure Coast where ongoing light showers continue. Guidance still favors this activity decreasing some into the afternoon. However, with a breezy low level onshore flow and sufficient low level moisture still can`t rule out additional isolated showers pushing onshore along the coast through the remainder of today, mainly near to south of Melbourne. Otherwise, forecast largely remains on track with mostly dry conditions forecast elsewhere across east central Florida and skies partly to mostly cloudy. Highs will be slightly below normal in the low to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US will gradually lift northeastward today towards the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to persist thanks to PWATs of less than an inch. However, winds veer easterly across the area today, and some low-topped, isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters. There is a low chance for some of these showers to move onshore due to the easterly flow, so have a 15% chance for rain primarily from the Cape southward through the morning hours. CAM guidance then indicates activity waning into the afternoon hours, with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the surface high is forecast to weaken and push offshore as an area of low pressure and its attendant cold front move eastward across the central US. Moisture continues to increase locally thanks to the persistent easterly flow, with a return of rain chances across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide. At the local beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are forecast today due to higher seas and persistent, strong onshore flow. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. Sunday-Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front moving across the central US is anticipated to stall out across the southeastern US late this weekend into early next week, just north of the Florida peninsula. This will result in persistent onshore flow and increasing moisture across east central Florida through Monday, which will support isolated showers across portions of east central Florida and isolated to scattered showers across the local Atlantic waters. Monday into Tuesday, and area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary across the Gulf. This low will lift northeastward into Tuesday, moving from the Gulf towards the Mid- Atlantic. This will finally drag a cold front across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Rain chances are forecast to increase out ahead of the front, with PoPs currently reaching 20-50% areawide, with the greatest rain chances focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. The environment looks unfavorable for storm development, so continued to leave out mention of any thunder for the time being. The front will move southward across the peninsula into the overnight hours, with activity gradually diminishing as drier air moves in behind the front. Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Monday, increasing into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally remain in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible across the north on Tuesday night. Wednesday-Friday...The front sags south of the area early on Wednesday, with an area of surface high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern US. Dry air settles across the Florida peninsula, which will keep conditions mostly dry locally mid to late week. Northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday eventually veer to out of the east to south-southeast on Friday, which will help advect moisture northward towards east central Florida late this week into the weekend. A return of low rain chances will be possible late Friday with the next possible frontal passage occurring over the weekend. Through Friday, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 70s to low 80s, with the temperature gradient going from north to south, respectively. Lows generally in the 50s to low 60s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 931 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Morning Update...Winds coming in a little stronger and seas a little higher across the Treasure Coast waters, with easterly winds around to just above 20 knots and seas 5-7 feet. Have therefore issued a Small Craft Advisory for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out to 60 nautical miles that will continue through this evening. Farther north, small craft should continue to exercise caution for easterly winds around 15-20 knots and seas 4-6 feet. Previous Discussion... Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through at least today and into tonight. Winds veer onshore as the surface high to the north moves northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas maintain between 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution across all local Atlantic waters due to these poor boating conditions. Late Sunday and into early next week, onshore winds subside to 10 to 15 knots, with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the south-southwest ahead of it at 15 to 20 knots and then veering to out of the north on Wednesday behind the front at 10 to 15 knots. Portions of the offshore waters may build back to 6 feet very briefly Tuesday into Wednesday, but the vast majority of the waters are anticipated to remain between 2 to 5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day, with the greatest rain chances forecast on Tuesday out ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday, with dry conditions anticipated once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 648 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A low to mid level cloud deck is beginning to spread onshore this morning, but CIGs are forecast to remain VFR. East-northeast winds have become established along the coast with gusts already observed between 20-23 kts. Gusty east winds spread across the interior near or after 15Z, persisting through the afternoon. VCSH along the Treasure Coast through 15Z. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 61 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 72 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 74 64 79 66 / 20 20 10 10 VRB 75 64 80 66 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 72 58 80 62 / 10 10 10 10 SFB 72 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 72 61 80 64 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 75 64 80 66 / 30 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1253111 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:06 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 856 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Elevated fire danger this afternoon in Southeast AL and portions of Southwest GA due to low relative humidity and ongoing drought. - A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. - There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend. - There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rains late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Latest guidance indicates lower RH this afternoon, mainly in Southeast AL and in Southwest GA from the Flint River Valley northwestward, ranging from 25 to 30%. As a result, elevated fire danger can be expected in these areas again this aftn. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Surface high pressure will slide eastward with surface winds becoming easterly. The cool and dry airmass will start to modify today with increasing dewpoints and highs ranging from the lower 60s across the northern areas to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend. Overnight lows tonight will be milder compared to the last couple of nights with mid 40s to low 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Rain chances continue to look high for early next week as a fairly strong upper level trough affects the area and interacts with a surface frontal boundary draped across the region. The 00z GFS develops an 850 mb jet of 40-50 knots across the area on Monday night. There should be plenty of forcing for widespread rain with the heaviest amounts across the western half of the area. Given the dynamics, a few thunderstorms may also occur on Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak instability moves inland. The severe weather threat will likely depend on how much instability can recover northward as shear will likely be high. This system will exit later on Tuesday with a dry day expected on Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, another system could approach with another chance of rain by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Surface winds will gradually become easterly today. Increasing moisture is expected to result in a SCT-BKN stratocumulus deck late this afternoon into the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 851 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. Another surge of easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots tonight admonishes small craft operators to exercise caution. A strong cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday. This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. In the meantime, extreme to exceptional drought continues. The most recent local drought information can be found by visiting www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 66 54 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 63 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 Albany 62 45 71 49 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 66 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 57 70 60 / 0 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1253110 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 825 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Freeze Warning Early Saturday Morning for Inland Southeast GA & - High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida Beaches Today - Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday && .UPDATE... High cirrus is streaming east northeast across the area this morning with east northeasterly winds already moderating local temperatures into the mid/upper 50s to around 60 at the immediate coast and elevating subfreezing lows after midnight into the mid 30s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Therefore the freeze warning was allowed to expire at 8AM. Today, high pressure will shift east from the central appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast. Breezy east northeasterly winds 15-20 mph will gust to 30 mph at times as a tightened local pressure gradient between the high to the north northeast and weak inverted troughing over the coastal waters heightens onshore flow today. Atlantic stratocumulus clouds developing over the coastal waters will become more numerous and move onshore leading to mostly cloudy skies along the coast with a few sprinkles or a very brief shower possible. With low level flow aloft turning more southeasterly, temperatures along with moisture levels will increase, rebounding into the upper 60s to the lower 70s across NE FL and generally low/mid 60s over SE GA. Tonight, added low level moisture will give some shallow, patchy fog potential inland/west of I-95 as stratocumulus clouds thin out in coverage leading to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows will be not nearly as cold over SE GA with low/mid 40s and warmer across NE FL due to the easterly wind fetch with low 50s south of I-10 into north central FL and along the SE GA coast and upper 40s along I-10 west of Jacksonville. The warmest locations will be along the first coast only lowering to the upper 50s to low 60s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warmer today and continued breezy with more passing clouds. After an inland morning freeze and frost, temperatures will warm into the 60s across most locations to lower 70s toward our north-central FL zones roughly from Gainesville toward Palatka southward under breezy easterly winds. Dry conditions continue, however, low level clouds will increase from the Atlantic coast through the day as a coastal trough forms offshore. A few light, spotty coastal sprinkles will be possible tonight as the trough pivots northward up the coast, but measurable precipitation is not expected. With the influx of shallow level moisture today under east winds, introduced patchy fog after midnight tonight for locations near the I-95 corridor in southeast GA to the St. Johns River basin of northeast Florida. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s tonight across inland southeast GA to the 50s south of I-10 toward the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move away to the northeast Sunday morning, with a cold front moving southeast across SE GA Sunday afternoon. This front will then move across NE FL Sunday night. The front will stall to the south Monday, then lift north across region Monday night as a warm front, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. Dry weather is expected as the frontal boundary moves through Sunday into Sunday night, but chances will increase Monday into Monday night, as it lifts back through as a warm front with increasing moisture. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low will track northeast of the region Tuesday, with the associated cold front moving southeast across area. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. A few strong storms will be possible. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday night, then to the north Wednesday. The high will move away to the northeast Thursday, as another low moves northeast out of the Gulf Thursday night into Friday. The front associated with this low may stall over area Friday night into Saturday, bringing a prolonged period of rainfall beginning Friday. Above normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday, with readings then trending below through the rest of this period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... The 12Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. Winds from the east northeast will pick up later this morning and turn breezy 10-15 knots with higher gusts along the coast to 20-25 knots as strong high pressure to the north builds more to the north northeast today. Weak inverted troughing will generate Atlantic stratocumulus clouds over the waters and move them onshore after 20Z with cloud heights ranging 4.0-6.0 kft. Winds will subside some by 22Z-00Z to 6-10 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coast, then 3-5 knots inland after 05Z and remain 6-10 knots along the coast overnight, becoming easterly at SGJ. Some patchy fog may form after 06Z tonight away from the coast, but probabilities too low to include at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure will build north northeast of the waters today as a coastal trough develops over the local waters. The coastal trough will break down Sunday into Monday as a weakening front approaches from the north then begins to stall just north of the local waters into Monday night. This front will morph into a lifting warm front ahead of a stronger frontal system as it approaches late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly winds increase Tuesday near Small Craft levels with a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south of the local waters late Tuesday, then high pressure builds northwest of the region mid-week as winds subside below Advisory levels. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Moderate Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON THE SE GA COAST SUNDAY... Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday night as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T`storms with a wetting rainfall across most of the area. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Significant fog is not expected over the next few nights. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... AMG 43 72 48 66 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 53 71 56 67 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 51 77 56 71 / 10 10 10 20 SGJ 58 76 61 74 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 52 79 57 76 / 0 10 10 20 OCF 53 79 58 78 / 0 10 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253109 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 728 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues overhead today and then slides offshore tonight. A weak warm front will move north through ENC Sunday morning before a cold front crosses in the evening. Behind this system high pressure will briefly build in from the north Monday, with a stronger low pressure system expected to move across the Carolinas Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Well below normal conditions continue with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s Cold high pressure will continue over the area through today. After a frosty and cold start this morning, with temps in the low to mid 20s, we will be slow to warm with still well below normal heights over the region. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to low 50s, some 10-15 degrees below normal, under mostly sunny skies and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Cold conditions expected again tonight with lows below freezing inland - Rapidly moderating conditions Sunday as a warm front lifts through the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s possible - Isolated to scattered showers possible Sunday ahead of and along a cold front which will move through the area Sunday evening Cold and dry high pressure will retreat tonight, but we will still see good radiational cooling the first half of the night with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and 30s closer to the coast. By early tomorrow morning a weak warm front will lift to the southern NC coast with temperatures rapidly rising from the 30s to the 50s or even low 60s. As the warm front lifts through ENC Sunday morning, southerly flow will develop boosting temps into the mid to upper 60s. A fair amount of clouds are likely with moisture increasing, but any locations that see breaks of sun will have the opportunity to warm towards 70 degrees. High res models continue to indicate the potential for a cluster of scattered showers moving through the forecast area during the day Sunday, likely associated with a prefrontal trough, and have introduced some low end PoPs (15-20%) which may need to be increased later on if this trend continues. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday into Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding - Below normal conditions continue the rest of next week, with the potential for another low pressure system to move through the Carolinas late week An active weather pattern is shaping up early to mid next week. During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast Monday, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week. The majority of guidance continues to depict low pressure taking a "just" inland track as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Though there remains some uncertainty with the track and intensity still, most model solutions show the potential for Gale Force winds and heavy rain. With this track we will be on the "warm" side of the low, but just barely. There remains potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the immediate coast and over the nearshore marine waters. A plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low. Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. That said, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates. For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week, but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may impact the area towards the end of next week. Temperatures fall back down below normal Monday, but bounce back up on Tuesday. Below normal conditions then likely return for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 720 PM Friday...High confidence in VFR flight cats through today as cold high pressure builds over terminals from the south and west. High clouds in and out through the day, with VFR ceilings and light winds. Tonight, some low clouds try to move in from the south with increasing moisture. This could bring low end chances for MVFR ceilings (20-30%) for EWN and OAJ before daybreak Sunday. Have a SCT025 mention in TAFs to handle this possibility. Further inland, drier conditions will keep ceilings firmly in VFR to start the morning off Outlook: Precip chances increasing Sun as warm front approaches, and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Low pressure system working up the Carolina coast expected to bring rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight cats expected. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Small Craft conditions likely develop Sunday night behind a cold front through most of Monday - Increasing potential for Gale Force winds Tuesday as a strong low pressure system moves over the Carolinas - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday With high pressure centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic, northerly winds at 10-20 kts will persist over ENC the rest of the morning. Winds subside to NE 5-15 kts this afternoon as the high moves nearly overhead. Winds will veer tonight as a weak warm front moves through the waters by early tomorrow morning with winds becoming S at 5-15 kts. Southerly winds increase to 10-20 kts Sunday afternoon, and then switch to the NW Sunday night behind a cold front. Winds strengthen to NNW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts overnight into Monday morning. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this morning, and then subside to 2-3 ft through tomorrow evening. Seas will quickly respond to increasing winds Sunday night building to 4-6 ft by sunrise. Outlook: Improving conditions expected the rest of Monday, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system is expected to move through the coastal waters Tuesday. There is potential for Gale Force winds across much of the coastal waters, with the exact strength of the winds (and wind direction) still to be worked out. Hazardous marine conditions will continue for some time behind this system through Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Sat...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253108 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 648 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Poor beach and boating conditions persist today. A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local beaches and small craft should exercise caution across the local Atlantic waters. - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, though some isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out. - Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions forecast mid to late week behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US will gradually lift northeastward today towards the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to persist thanks to PWATs of less than an inch. However, winds veer easterly across the area today, and some low-topped, isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters. There is a low chance for some of these showers to move onshore due to the easterly flow, so have a 15% chance for rain primarily from the Cape southward through the morning hours. CAM guidance then indicates activity waning into the afternoon hours, with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the surface high is forecast to weaken and push offshore as an area of low pressure and its attendant cold front move eastward across the central US. Moisture continues to increase locally thanks to the persistent easterly flow, with a return of rain chances across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide. At the local beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are forecast today due to higher seas and persistent, strong onshore flow. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. Sunday-Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front moving across the central US is anticipated to stall out across the southeastern US late this weekend into early next week, just north of the Florida peninsula. This will result in persistent onshore flow and increasing moisture across east central Florida through Monday, which will support isolated showers across portions of east central Florida and isolated to scattered showers across the local Atlantic waters. Monday into Tuesday, and area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary across the Gulf. This low will lift northeastward into Tuesday, moving from the Gulf towards the Mid- Atlantic. This will finally drag a cold front across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Rain chances are forecast to increase out ahead of the front, with PoPs currently reaching 20-50% areawide, with the greatest rain chances focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. The environment looks unfavorable for storm development, so continued to leave out mention of any thunder for the time being. The front will move southward across the peninsula into the overnight hours, with activity gradually diminishing as drier air moves in behind the front. Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Monday, increasing into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally remain in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible across the north on Tuesday night. Wednesday-Friday...The front sags south of the area early on Wednesday, with an area of surface high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern US. Dry air settles across the Florida peninsula, which will keep conditions mostly dry locally mid to late week. Northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday eventually veer to out of the east to south-southeast on Friday, which will help advect moisture northward towards east central Florida late this week into the weekend. A return of low rain chances will be possible late Friday with the next possible frontal passage occurring over the weekend. Through Friday, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 70s to low 80s, with the temperature gradient going from north to south, respectively. Lows generally in the 50s to low 60s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through at least today and into tonight. Winds veer onshore as the surface high to the north moves northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas maintain between 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution across all local Atlantic waters due to these poor boating conditions. Late Sunday and into early next week, onshore winds subside to 10 to 15 knots, with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the south-southwest ahead of it at 15 to 20 knots and then veering to out of the north on Wednesday behind the front at 10 to 15 knots. Portions of the offshore waters may build back to 6 feet very briefly Tuesday into Wednesday, but the vast majority of the waters are anticipated to remain between 2 to 5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day, with the greatest rain chances forecast on Tuesday out ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday, with dry conditions anticipated once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 648 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A low to mid level cloud deck is beginning to spread onshore this morning, but CIGs are forecast to remain VFR. East-northeast winds have become established along the coast with gusts already observed between 20-23 kts. Gusty east winds spread across the interior near or after 15Z, persisting through the afternoon. VCSH along the Treasure Coast through 15Z. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 61 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 72 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 74 64 79 66 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 72 58 80 62 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 72 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 72 61 80 64 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253107 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 652 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Freeze Warning Early Saturday Morning for Inland Southeast GA & - High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida Beaches Today - Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warmer today and continued breezy with more passing clouds. After an inland morning freeze and frost, temperatures will warm into the 60s across most locations to lower 70s toward our north-central FL zones roughly from Gainesville toward Palatka southward under breezy easterly winds. Dry conditions continue, however, low level clouds will increase from the Atlantic coast through the day as a coastal trough forms offshore. A few light, spotty coastal sprinkles will be possible tonight as the trough pivots northward up the coast, but measurable precipitation is not expected. With the influx of shallow level moisture today under east winds, introduced patchy fog after midnight tonight for locations near the I-95 corridor in southeast GA to the St. Johns River basin of northeast Florida. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s tonight across inland southeast GA to the 50s south of I-10 toward the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures will warm up Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s as a warm front lifts northward over the forecast area, and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Southwest steering flow will raise PWATs just over an inch Sunday, increasing cold cover, however rain chances will likely hold off until Monday but a few sprinkles are possible Sunday. Rain chances remain at about 15-20% on Monday with low thunder chances over land. High temperatures Monday will range from the mid 60s over southeast Georgia and near 80 in north central Florida. Higher rain chances will begin just after midnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning for inland southeast Georgia. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday, a strengthening surface low will move across the area, bringing early morning showers and thunderstorms, and much needed rainfall across most of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Strong thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday given high PWATs (1.5- 2.0 inches), a low level jet near 40-55 knots, and a low CAPE-high shear environment. Rainfall totals are generally at about 0.25-0.75 inches (highest over inland southeast Georgia), with the NBM showing highest probabilities for >1 inch over Coffee, Atkinson, and Jeff Davis counties. By late evening, precipitation will be through the forecast area, paving the way for a cooler night. Wednesday and Thursday will be chillier, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies and northerly winds. At this time, low temperatures mid-week are above freezing but perhaps some patchy frost formation is possible over inland southeast Georgia. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... The 12Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. Winds from the east northeast will pick up later this morning and turn breezy 10-15 knots with higher gusts along the coast to 20-25 knots as strong high pressure to the north builds more to the north northeast today. Weak inverted troughing will generate Atlantic stratocumulus clouds over the waters and move them onshore after 20Z with cloud heights ranging 4.0-6.0 kft. Winds will subside some by 22Z-00Z to 6-10 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coast, then 3-5 knots inland after 05Z and remain 6-10 knots along the coast overnight, becoming easterly at SGJ. Some patchy fog may form after 06Z tonight away from the coast, but probabilities too low to include at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure builds northeast of the region today as a coastal trough develops over the local waters. The coastal trough will break down Sunday into Monday as a weakening front approaches from the north then begins to stall just north of the local waters into Monday night. This front will morph into a lifting warm front ahead of a stronger frontal system as it approaches late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly winds increase Tuesday near Small Craft levels with a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south of the local waters late Tuesday, then high pressure builds northwest of the region mid-week as winds subside below Advisory levels. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Moderate Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON THE SE GA COAST SUNDAY... Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday night as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T`storms with a wetting rainfall across most of the area. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Significant fog is not expected over the next few nights. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... AMG 43 72 48 66 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 53 71 56 67 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 51 77 56 71 / 10 10 10 20 SGJ 58 76 61 74 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 52 79 57 76 / 0 10 10 20 OCF 53 79 58 78 / 0 10 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253106 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions persist through tonight. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, generally cool weather continues through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 530 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind. High pressure is centered near or just W of the forecast area this morning. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low have developed. Cold temperatures prevail locally early this morning with current observations depicting upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s-lower 30s on the Eastern Shore and near the coast of SE VA and NE NC, where there is still some mixing. A very cold morning for late November. The Canadian high will settle overhead later this morning and afternoon. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid 40s. Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight lows should still be quite cold and in the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and warmer temps E/SE. - Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal. Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET) keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but will discuss this in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC. - A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC. - Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning, though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around 20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1" only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning. With (slowly) increasing temps, don`t foresee this event being a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only 0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any threat for winter precip would drop to zero. Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For >0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide. Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area (minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some frozen precip inland (confidence is very low). A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest" day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 530 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail through tonight with dry wx expected. A 5-8 kt N/NW wind is expected at SBY/ORF/ECG today, with light and variable winds elsewhere. High clouds overspread the region and thicken this evening and tonight ahead of a cold front. Outlook: Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions to MVFR are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely. && .MARINE... As of 700 AM EST Saturday... - Extended Small Craft Advisories through 10 AM this morning due to elevated NW winds. - Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front. - A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible. NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast. As the area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish. For now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 10 AM. The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. The models are in sync with the timing of the front moving through the area Sunday evening. There should be enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level winds. The only potential issue could be the upper trough is lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend of the SCA level winds. So for now, will not add a new headline for possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday. High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into Early Tuesday Morning. This will allow a period of calmer conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of the E- SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as a coastal low develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1253105 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 644 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A storm system should bring some impacts to our area late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today will begin with thick cirrus and mid-clouds across the forecast area. Near term guidance indicates that the high clouds will clear from west to east during the afternoon, resulting in several hours of mostly to partly sunny conditions before sunset. Sfc high pressure centered over mid-Atlantic states will ridge across the region today. The pressure gradient will support steady east-northeast winds, gradually increasing to around 10 mph this afternoon. Along the coast, wind gusts near 20 mph is possible at times. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 50s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 60s across SE GA. Tonight, the region will remain under SW H5 flow, with a broad trough over the Mississippi River Valley. High resolution guidance indicates that an inverted sfc trough will develop over the Gulf Stream. Isolated showers are forecast to develop within the sfc trough, generally remaining over the outer GA and SC waters. Cloud cover should gradually increase over the CWA as the trough deepens. Low temperatures may fall to the mid 30s across the inland counties, ranging near 50 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For Sunday, the weak coastal trough mixes out ahead of an approaching cold front which will allow for a brief return of warmer temperatures. 850mb temperatures reach back up into the upper single digits expect, so expecting highs in the mid to upper 60s across southeastern South Carolina and upper 60s to mid 70s across southeastern Georgia. Isentropic lift may again result in some weak showers developing during the afternoon hours, but the better chances arrive during the evening and overnight hours as the cold front slips through the area along with some scattered and weak shortwaves. On Monday, surface high pressure builds into the region from the north throughout the day, with the aforementioned cold front being pushed off to our south into northern Florida. This will drop afternoon temperatures back down into the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest across southeast Georgia. Chances for rainfall have lowered as the previously expected shortwaves have sped up and moved across with the cold front, though mostly cloudy skies remain expected. As a trough move towards the area before lifting up into the northeast, a surface low will be moving towards the area across the Gulf which will be increasing rainfall chances late Monday and overnight into Tuesday. Model consensus have shifted the surface low a touch further inland, keeping the heaviest rainfall more across the midlands than the coast. Timing of the heaviest rainfall for the region looks most likely during the morning hours on Tuesday as the surface low traverses the region, though lingering light rain will be possible into the evening hours. Despite precipitable water values approaching the 90th percentile of climatology near 1.5 inches, rainfall amounts look to remain largely in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, highest across inland southeast South Carolina. Given the current drought conditions and lack of recent appreciable rainfall, no flooding concerns are expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Chances for rainfall dwindle overnight into Wednesday, with surface high pressure building into the region behind the cold front. With strong zonal flow aloft, the surface high pressure moves offshore fairly quickly into Thursday morning, bringing temperatures back to near normal though likely remaining a few degrees shy in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thursday and Friday. Model consensus remains rather poor for the end of the week as they struggle to determine what to do with the strong shortwave/trough along the west coast, with the NBM bringing back low end (20-40%) chances for rainfall on Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are low probabilities of flight restrictions Sunday and Monday, but would most likely be due to low ceilings. A storm system will bring higher probabilities of flight restrictions late Monday into Tuesday, with both low ceilings and lowered vsbys possible. && .MARINE... Today through tonight, a ridge of high pressure will remain across the nearshore waters of SC and GA. An inverted trough should gradually deepen over the Gulf Stream late tonight. East-northeast winds around 20 kts should persists across the marine zones today. As the trough develops tonight, winds should veer from the east and subside to 10 to 15 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 3-4 ft, with 5 ft seas possible across the outer GA waters this afternoon and evening. Sunday through Wednesday: Winds weaken on Sunday, but will be increasing throughout the day on Monday as a cold front approaches the area from the west. Winds may begin to approach small craft criteria on Monday along the southeast South Carolina coast, with some 6 foot seas also possible. Highest rainfall chances will occur early Tuesday morning as a surface low pressure is expected to traverse the region, with winds currently looking sub-advisory, but seas do begin to approach/exceed 6 feet again on Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday, with conditions improving. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253102 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 630 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions continue through late Saturday night in the Gulf and early Sunday morning in the Atlantic. - A high rip current risk continues this weekend for the Atlantic beaches, along with dangerous surf conditions. - Gradual warmup expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 High pressure over the TN valley early this morning will shift east towards the Mid Atlantic region today and eventually move off the coast by this evening. This will result in our low level winds becoming more ENE today and Sunday. With a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, breezy conditions will continue today with afternoon gusts of 25-30 mph expected. The gradient will relax for Sunday with gusts of only 15-20 mph expected. 00Z MFL sounding showed PWAT value of 0.90 inches and a lot of dry air above 800 mb. PWAT values will start to increase today, with values of 1.2-1.4 inches over the far southern peninsula by late in the day, with 1.0- 1.2 inches closer to the lake region. With the increase in low level moisture, some widely scattered showers are possible this afternoon into early evening, mainly along and south of Alligator Alley. Widely scattered showers possible again on Sunday, with chances along the coast and over the far southern portion of the peninsula. Temperatures will be on a moderating trend with highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s around the lake and SW FL, to upper 60s and low 70s across the east coast metro. Sundays high temps will be in the low to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A frontal boundary across northern FL early in the work week will keep much of the rainfall chances to our north, so it`ll be mainly dry across South FL outside of some occasional coastal showers. The next cold front will cross the area mid week and settle across the FL Straits late in the week. Little to no moisture will be associated with this frontal passage, however it will provide a bit of relief with temps and humidity dropping back to seasonal norms. Highs early in the week will be in the low to middle 80s, and low temps will be in the 60s/70s. After the frontal passage, highs the rest of the week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and low temps will be in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR expected to prevail through the next 24 hours at all terminals. A few periods of MVFR cigs/vis will be possible around TMB and MIA with quick showers this afternoon. NE winds will be breezy with gusts in the 25-30 kts possible through the early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Hazardous winds and seas continue today for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. NNE winds 20-25 kts expected through late tonight for the Gulf waters and into early Sunday morning for the Atlantic waters. Seas 3-6 ft in the Gulf and 6-10 ft in the Atlantic. Conditions improve on Sunday, however cautionary easterly winds will remain in the Atlantic into early this upcoming week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Strong easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents this weekend for the Atlantic beaches. An elevated risk will remain into early this upcoming week. With the strong easterly flow this weekend, waves of 6-8 ft in the surf zone are possible along portions of the Atlantic beaches this morning through Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 71 82 72 / 20 30 10 10 West Kendall 79 68 83 69 / 20 30 10 10 Opa-Locka 79 70 83 71 / 10 20 10 10 Homestead 78 71 81 71 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 77 71 81 71 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 77 71 81 71 / 10 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 80 70 83 71 / 10 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 77 70 81 71 / 10 10 20 10 Boca Raton 79 70 82 71 / 20 20 10 10 Naples 82 66 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1253101 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 618 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure over the area today will shift offshore tonight into Sunday bringing slightly milder temperatures before a cold front moves through Sunday night. Unsettled weather is then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the area. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday with another disturbance bringing some low rain chances toward Friday. && .UPDATE... Only minor tweaks needed to previous forecast, with temps across the area in the 20s (with exception of 14 degrees at Back Island - notoriously the coldest location in the CWA, and low 30s along immediate coastline). 12z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... One more day of unseasonably cold weather as wedge briefly develops with surface high pressure moving across the north during the day. Again, high temps today will struggle to reach 50F, though northeast winds will be quite light due to influence of the high pressure. Dewpoints will again be in the teens today, with scattered cirrus across the area through the afternoon. High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, allowing return flow to develop. This will help PWATs increase from 0.25" during the day to 0.8" tonight. Will see stratocumulus clouds move onshore tonight in the low-level ESE flow, and could see a few spotty, very light, showers develop due to shallow isentropic light. Lows tonight around freezing, though could see a couple of degrees colder where there are clearer skies and couple degrees warmer where there are more clouds overnight.. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: Low thru Mon; Moderate Mon night *Temps: Near to above normal thru Sun night; Below normal Mon; Near normal Mon night *Confidence: High thru Mon; Moderate to High Mon night Details: Inland high pressure and a trough along the coast will be shifting offshore Sun ahead of a cold front which should move through Sun night followed by another cooler shot of air as high pressure returns from the north. Limited moisture/forcing will keep rain chances/amounts low thru Mon with the best chances likely Sun night. However, rain chances will increase more substantially Mon night as another coastal trough begins developing and moisture/forcing increase ahead of another storm system approaching from the west. Could even see a few thunderstorms toward daybreak Tue, mainly offshore, as the coastal warm front tries to push inland. Rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch are likely by daybreak Tue, with several tenths of an inch possible, especially across inland portions of SC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None, although there is a non-zero risk for a severe storm Tue *Rain Chances: High into Tue night; Very low to None Wed thru Thu night; Low Thu night/Fri *Temps: Near (coast) to below (inland) normal Tue; below normal Tue night thru Fri *Confidence: Moderate thru Tue night; Moderate to High Wed thru Thu; Moderate Thu night/Fri Details: Strengthening low pressure inland Tue will be moving NE thru the day although the exact track is a bit uncertain. This will largely determine how much warmer and slightly more unstable air can move inland which will determine if there is any chance at all of a severe storm. At this point chances still appear very low despite the strong deep layer shear due to the fact that warmer air well offshore will likely be cooled somewhat over the chillier shelf waters closer to the coast. Once the low moves by to the north the trailing cold front will move through later Tue/Tue night bringing colder/drier air back to the area which will remain due to high pressure through at least Thu. May see light rain again as early as late Thu night as moisture begins to stream eastward ahead of another storm system with slightly better chances on Fri, although still some decent uncertainty this period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Scattered cirrus through this afternoon. Stratocu cloud deck around 4-5 kft will move onshore tonight as low level flow turns east-southeasterly. Light winds out of the N-NE prevail throughout TAF period. There is a very low chance of fog developing tonight at coastal terminals with that increase in low level moisture, but lingering winds and dry air just above the surface have kept low vsbys out of the TAFs. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR until early next week. Flight restrictions possible the first part of the upcoming week as a coastal trough/warm front lifts north across the area, followed by a cold frontal passage. Widespread showers and isolated tstms are expected with this system. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure wedge inland will maintain northeasterly winds over the local coastal waters during the day today, sustained 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 2-3 ft, combination of wind chop and 1 ft ESE swell. High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, veering the local winds to easterlies tonight while slightly weakening. Seas slightly lower to 2 ft tonight. Could see a few light showers move across the waters tonight. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Northeasterly winds drop below 10 kts and gradually veer to the south throughout the day Sunday ahead of a cold front, with seas holding steady at 1-2 ft. Front moves through Sunday night before stalling offshore of the coastal waters by Monday. Winds veer back to the northeast by Monday, and the pressure gradient quickly increases, with gusts up to 20 kts by the afternoon, and seas up to 2-4 ft. Strong low pressure system ejects out of the Gulf and moves through Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday, veering the winds again to the SSW. Winds and seas easily push into Small Craft Advisory criteria. Depending on the track of the low, the forecast may trend towards gale force gusts, but that remains to be seen. Low exits the area Tuesday night, and winds veer to the NNE and fall to 10-15 kts throughout the day Wednesday. Seas come back down to 2-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253099 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 526 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 * Breezy southeasterly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts to continue through Saturday. * A brief warm spike takes place on Saturday with highs in the 80s. * Big changes to the weather pattern as a strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will bring a notably cooler airmass (potentially the coldest since last February) to the region Sunday through early next week. * Adverse to dangerous surf and boating conditions are expected to persist through at least Sunday in response to an enhanced pressure gradient and a strong cold front. * Rain chances increase inland Saturday night through Monday and again Wednesday night through Thursday night. Greatest chances Sunday through Sunday night. Rain chances nearly everyday through next week for the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A strong early season cold front that promises to bring the coldest airmass yet of the season (coldest since last February) and an unsettled weather pattern will be the main highlights through the forecast period. The latest satellite and radar data depicts scattered to overcast sky coverage with some light streamer showers driven by breezy southerly gradient winds and a weak shortwave over the Sierra Madre. Through tonight, expect for light streamer showers to continue across parts of the area with the best chance of showers occurring closer to the coast. Warm air advection (WAA) regime will continue on Saturday and will result in warm spike, albeit brief. Breezy southerly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts will aide in daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. However, during the day on Saturday, a strong south-southeastward advancing cold front will be sweeping its way through the state of Texas. This cold front will be associated with a highly amplified and active large- scale pattern featuring a mild West U.S. vs a Cold and wintry Central and East U.S. in which forecast models have been advertising for the past several days. While this will bring plenty of wintry weather across the northern tier states, this cold front will bring markedly cooler temperatures to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late this weekend into the early parts of next week. There still remains some discrepancies amongst forecast guidances on the precise timing and strength of the cold fropa, which would impact high temps on Sunday and potentially beyond. Typically, these cold shallow airmasses tend to be stronger and have a faster timing than than what most global forecast models suggest. The hi-res, CAM North America Model (NAM) captures these trends better. That said, it still appears that sometime Saturday night into Sunday, this strong cold front with Arctic origins will sweep through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. In it`s wake will be the coldest airmass of the season seen so far (since last February). High temperatures on Sunday will likely be reached early in the day as temperatures are expected to fall through the day. High temperatures from Saturday to Sunday will be 10-15 F degrees cooler, however closer to seasonable norms with values on Sunday in the low to mid 70s and 60s over Brush Country. Clearing skies amid additional cold and dry air advection will result in a noticeably chilly Sunday night as overnight low temperatures are expected to plunge into the 40s most places, some 15F degrees or so cooler than Saturday night, and some 10F degrees cooler than normal. A full cold and dry air advection regime will be in place by Monday. This combined with a modified 1020-1025 mb sfc Arctic high pressure system over the region will result in continued cooler than normal temperatures with high temperatures failing to make it out of the 50s on Monday and 60s on Tuesday. Clear skies and additional radiational cooling will result in overnight low temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights holding in the 40s most places (50s along the RGV and immediate coast), which again will be well below normal levels. In addition to the cooler changes, the pattern will become unsettled. Rain showers (some perhaps stratiform type) are possible Saturday night through Monday in response and connection to the cold frontal boundary. Currently, we still have low to medium (20-60%) PoPs over Deep South Texas during this time period with the best chances being near the coast. Sunday-Sunday night is where we expect the most widespread coverage. We`ve maintained categorical PoPs along and east of IH-69C Sunday-Sunday night. Even greater chances will take place over the open Gulf Waters during this same time period. Rain showers are also possible over the Gulf Waters Friday night and Saturday in connection to the aforementioned warm front and again Monday night of next week. Another bout of unsettled weather is expected to develop over the forecast area as a nearby shortwave trough/developing low pressure system will increase the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday night. Currently, we have low to medium (20-50%) chances across Deep South Texas with the higher chances located near the coast. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the week, however, the combination of rain chances and increased cloud coverage will limit warming potential. That said, high temperatures by Wednesday are progged to reach the 70s across much of Deep South Texas. Highs mainly in the 70s are then expected to persist through next Saturday. Overnight lows Wednesday through Saturday night will mainly be in the 50s. Given the explanation above about model biases and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have decided to use a blend of the NBM 25th percentile and NAM12 Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions to persist through the duration of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds will be present for the TAF cycle with some gusts during the day around 20 knots. However it possible that some gusts could even be higher. The wind gusts should weaken later this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters through Saturday evening due to continued breezy southeasterly winds. A second, stronger cold front will sweep through the region Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in continued adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist and a Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory may be needed through at least Sunday. Marine conditions could improve by Tuesday night with low to moderate winds and seas prevailing through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 67 75 49 / 10 20 80 70 HARLINGEN 85 61 69 48 / 10 20 70 60 MCALLEN 87 63 69 49 / 0 10 60 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 58 67 48 / 0 10 40 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 71 74 56 / 10 30 80 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 64 73 50 / 10 30 80 70 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1253100 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 528 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty onshore winds are occurring. This will make for some rough marine conditions on area bays and coastal Gulf waters, where a small craft advisory is in effect. It will also bring in warmer and more humid air to the area in advance of our next shot of rain and storms. - Those rain chances will creep back into the forecast with possible showers overnight into this morning, but peak ahead of and along our next next cold front tonight. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance. - An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. We can expect to see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing to a portion of the area, most likely north of the Houston metro. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A cold front is set to move through the area Saturday night, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms along with it. Out ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to begin overnight as low-level convergence increases and a shortwave makes it way across the area. This activity is expected to persist through out the day Saturday and appears to merge with the front that moves through later that night. With this scenario, there is the potential for training of storms to occur and produce locally heavy rainfall. This has resulted in WPC placing the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall...a couple of caveats with that, though...with being in a drought, the flood potential highly dependent on how fast the soil can absorb the rainfall compared to how high the rain rate is. Typically, in colder weather the soil has a little more difficulty with quicker absorption. We have been on the warmer side for this time of year, and dry soils may mitigate the potential, so the flood potential remains marginal, but something to be aware of. Similarly, SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday. CAPE values are not all that impressive (around ~1000 J/kg, which is enough to help kick off storms, but on the lower end of the spectrum energy wise)...shear, however, is at a sufficient level to result in a few organized storms/supercells. 0-6 km Bulk Shear values are coming in around 30-40 kts ...and winds do veer with height...typically in low CAPE/high shear environments we could get organized storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes. Timing of main line of storms has slowed down by a few hours with the latest guidance. While showers and storms will be ongoing out ahead of the front, the front itself is not expected to arrive to the Brazos Valley until around 9 PM (give or take a couple hours). It is expected to push offshore around 3 AM (again, give or take a couple hours). A drastic change in temperatures will occur behind the front Saturday into Sunday as strong CAA brings a chilly and dry airmass in the area. Highs for Sunday through Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 50s for most of the area, with some locations in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods struggling to even get into the 50s. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side Sunday night through Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s. We will need to continue to monitor the potential for some locations to get into freezing temperatures Monday night for rural areas to the west of the metro and locations to the north of the metro. Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, which won`t do much to bring daytime temperatures out of the 50s, it will put a damper on the potential for freezing temperatures that night. Onshore flow will precede the next front later in the week next week. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Ceilings will mostly be in VFR territory for most of the day, albeit lowering into the evening as Gulf moisture continues to fill the lower levels of the atmos. SE winds will again become somewhat breezy heading into the late morning and afternoon hours with gusts >20kt at times. Isolated-scattered showers/storms are possible with some heating (mostly north of I-10) in the 20-02z timeframe. A few could briefly pulse up to strong levels. Better shower/storm chances occur overnight as a cold front moves into the region with a congealing band of precip ahead of it. Some of the embedded storms could again be strong. Threat of the heaviest downpours and reduced vsby looks like it may impact the metro & coastal terminals between 6-12z. Behind the front, rain will taper off, but leave us with IFR ceilings and gusty north winds. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 mall Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters as moderate to strong southeasterly winds and building seas continue. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that should be pushing off the coast after midnight, around 2am, and across the Gulf waters through the late night and early Sunday morning hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate to strong offshore flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake of the front. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push overhead Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters. At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues. The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a rip current statement is in place for that danger. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 41 50 42 / 60 80 10 30 Houston (IAH) 76 49 55 44 / 40 90 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 76 58 60 52 / 30 90 70 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1253096 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 512 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 507 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday, with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A zonal flow regime will remain in place through Sunday across the Gulf South. In the low levels, the region will find itself placed between a departing high and an advancing front the next couple of days. Winds will veer to a more southeasterly direction and temperatures will warm back to more average readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday afternoon. This southeast flow off the Gulf will also bring moisture back into the region. PWATS will increase dramatically throughout the day and will be around the 75th percentile by Saturday evening. This will be most noticeably marked by a gradual lowering of the cloud deck through the day as moisture deepens. By late Saturday night into Sunday, a fast moving shortwave trough axis and the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to slide through the region. Ample deep layer forcing and moisture will support a broad area of post-frontal stratiform rainfall development from late Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall totals of a half inch to up to an inch are probable with this weekend rain event. By Sunday night, the front is expected to stall over the northern Gulf as the parent shortwave feature quickly lifts to the northeast. Mid-level flow will remain southerly to southwesterly, and this will allow for weak isentropic forcing over the cooler and more stable surface based airmass to linger through Monday morning. Skies will remain overcast and isolated light rain showers will persist over the area due to this isentropic forcing. Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will see a wide gradient with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of the front in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro, but readings also climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in coastal Mississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana. Lows will also see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the Louisiana coast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10 and lower 50s south of I-10 Sunday night. A very similar temperature spread is expected Monday into Monday night as the frontal boundary remains stalled just offshore. A much stronger southern stream system embedded within the broader zonal flow pattern will push through the area Monday into Monday night. Very strong and deep forcing will be in place as both a highly difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics develop over a region of enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A Gulf low will form on Monday beneath these favorable upper level dynamics, and this low will pass directly through the region Monday night. The isentropic forcing over the cooler surface based airmass to the north of the stationary front will also contribute to the deep layer forcing across the area. All of these factors will support widespread moderate to heavy stratiform rainfall from Monday afternoon through Monday night. PWATS are forecast to rise to daily max value of around 1.5 inches, and heavy rainfall will be a concern. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches could occur. One area of concern for any surface based convection and a low end threat of strong to severe storms could be over the eastern Gulf waters and potentially as far north as coastal Mississippi late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. This will be highly dependent on the exact track of the deepening Gulf low, so uncertainty is greater than average. However, a review of model soundings in the area indicate marginally conducive shear and instability parameters over the aforementioned time period. As more high resolution model data comes in, forecast confidence any the evolution of the low and any surface based convective threat will increase. To the immediate north of the front, mid- level lapse rates may support an isolated elevated thunderstorm within broader stratiform rain shield in coastal Louisiana, but thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Model guidance remains in good agreement that a cooler and drier airmass will quickly advect into the area on Tuesday as the Gulf low and attendant cold front sweep well east and south of the region. These conditions will linger into Wednesday as a surface high passes to the north of the area. Highs will only climb into the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon and overnight lows will easily fall below freezing along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. The cold temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This brief break in a more unsettled pattern will be short-lived as the model guidance is in decent agreement that another fast moving shortwave trough embedded with the persistent zonal flow pattern aloft will begin to impact the area on Thursday. Model spread begins to increase as we move into Friday and Friday night, and overall forecast confidence decreases dramatically. It does look like a return to a wetter period of weather will occur on Thursday and Friday, and have opted to largely stick with the NBM output for both days. This results in PoP of 40 to 60 percent over this period. Temperature spreads are also large as the positioning of a frontal boundary over the area has large spatial differences. NBM deterministic output has readings running slightly cooler than average with highs the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s, and have stuck with this for day 6 and 7 forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR through most of this taf cycle. There is some -SHRA moving into the area from the west by Sunday morning which will cause some vis levels to drop into MVFR range with a few IFR possible. Cigs should remain VFR though. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 East winds of around 20 knots will begin to ease Saturday afternoon and will remain below advisory criteria at 10 to 15 knots through Sunday afternoon. Sunday night through Tuesday will see more hazardous conditions for small craft return as a low pressure system passes through the coastal waters. Northerly winds will increase back above 20 knots and seas will rise back to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters. As high pressure briefly builds back over the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and weaken to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also subside back to 1 to 3 feet as these calmer winds take hold. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 50 58 41 / 10 60 70 40 BTR 70 55 62 46 / 10 60 70 40 ASD 69 55 70 47 / 0 20 40 30 MSY 70 60 70 53 / 0 20 40 30 GPT 67 56 71 49 / 0 10 40 30 PQL 67 54 71 49 / 0 10 30 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ550-552-555-557- 570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ552-555-557-570- 572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1253097 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 510 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 508 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning, and possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as well. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 An upper trof advances across the Plains then ejects off across the northeast states through Sunday night. An associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. Instability continues to look limited ahead of the frontal passage and am not expecting strong storm development. Dry conditions on Saturday will be followed by slight chance to likely pops on Sunday (highest pops over northwest portion). Rain chances taper to dry conditions Sunday night. A large positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves over the central and western CONUS, then takes on a meridional orientation and also deamplifies while progressing across the eastern states mainly on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then zips off across the forecast area Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Depending on the ultimate trajectory of the surface low, it`s possible that MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg could be realized late Monday night into early Tuesday morning over the coastal counties, tapering to much lower values further inland. Plenty of favorable shear may also be in place, but considering uncertainty with the trajectory of the surface low, will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Monday and categorical pops for Monday night then tapering to dry conditions on Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday while another upper trof swings into the western states. There is a lot of uncertainty with the eventual movement of the upper trof which could translate into the central CONUS through Friday, or even make it into the eastern states. Either way, a series of shortwaves look set to move across the forecast area on Thursday which will support slight chance to chance pops, then have gone with good chance pops for Friday as the pattern should support scattered coverage regardless of what transpires. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 60s then Sunday ranges from around 60 well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. Highs trend cooler through Wednesday to range from the lower/mid 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs moderate a bit by Friday to range from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Lows Saturday night range from the lower 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast, then lows Sunday night range from around 40 well inland to the lower 50s at the coast. Lows moderate Monday night then Tuesday night will be cool and range from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s near the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer by Thursday night to range from around 40 well inland to near 50 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, then a high risk follows for Monday night and Tuesday. A low rip current risk is expected by Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region. Winds will remain out of the east to east-southeast today into tonight. Winds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range over the interior with 10 to 15 knots nearer the coast. Wind gusts this morning may occasionally approach 15 to 20 knots nearer the coast this morning before diminishing by this afternoon. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish on Saturday and become southeasterly. Have continued with a Small Craft Advisory until 15Z Saturday for the open Gulf waters and will mention small craft should exercise caution tonight mainly for southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. An offshore flow develops on Sunday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong Sunday night then becomes easterly on Monday. An onshore flow develops Monday evening then switches to the northwest Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday night through early Tuesday evening. /29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% on Saturday over interior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and a small portion of the interior western Florida panhandle. 20 ft wind speeds will remain below critical levels (around 10 mph), and the Significant Fire Potential will be low so will just monitor at this point. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 51 70 48 / 0 10 30 20 Pensacola 63 56 71 53 / 0 10 20 20 Destin 64 56 71 55 / 0 10 20 20 Evergreen 62 45 68 43 / 0 0 30 20 Waynesboro 60 45 60 39 / 0 30 60 20 Camden 59 43 60 40 / 0 10 50 20 Crestview 63 46 73 48 / 0 0 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ |
| #1253098 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 606 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 605 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. - There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend. - There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rains late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Surface high pressure will slide eastward with surface winds becoming easterly. The cool and dry airmass will start to modify today with increasing dewpoints and highs ranging from the lower 60s across the northern areas to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend. Overnight lows tonight will be milder compared to the last couple of nights with mid 40s to low 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Rain chances continue to look high for early next week as a fairly strong upper level trough affects the area and interacts with a surface frontal boundary draped across the region. The 00z GFS develops an 850 mb jet of 40-50 knots across the area on Monday night. There should be plenty of forcing for widespread rain with the heaviest amounts across the western half of the area. Given the dynamics, a few thunderstorms may also occur on Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak instability moves inland. The severe weather threat will likely depend on how much instability can recover northward as shear will likely be high. This system will exit later on Tuesday with a dry day expected on Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, another system could approach with another chance of rain by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Surface winds will gradually become easterly today. Increasing moisture is expected to result in a SCT-BKN stratocumulus deck late this afternoon into the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. A strong cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday. This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. In the meantime, extreme to exceptional drought continues. The most recent local drought information can be found by visiting www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 66 54 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 63 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 Albany 62 45 71 49 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 66 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 57 70 60 / 0 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1253095 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 609 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues today. Gusty winds persist early this morning and into much of Saturday, although not as strong as yesterday. Low pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain with it. Cooling down again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring a storm Tuesday into Wednesday which could bring wintry weather to portions of Southern New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Temps in the 30s and low 40s. * Breezy * Colder tonight with lows in the mid 20s. Lake effect snow showers come to an end for southern New England today leaving a cold and breezy start to the weekend. This, as high pressure builds in from the south further decreasing the pressure gradient and continuing the cold NW flow. While blustery, winds won`t reach the speeds we saw yesterday as we only mix down gusts on the order of 20-30 mph. Strongest winds will be the first half of the day, coming down by late afternoon as the high shifts overhead and loss of daytime heating causes the boundary layer to decouple. Mid/high clouds move in from the west between 6 and 9 pm allowing for several hours of potential radiational cooling before warmer air begins to move in on southerly winds toward Sunday morning. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Low pressure brings rain later Sunday into Sunday night. * Much warmer, in the 40s and low 50s for highs. Clouds continue to increase as a warm front lifts north early Sunday morning. This will bring temperatures back above normal with highs reaching the upper 40s and low 50s (warmest on the south coast). The warm front is associated with a shortwave trough and surface low moving from the Great Lakes through northern New England. While in the warm sector we`ll see widespread stratiform rain showers overspread in the afternoon and evening. The system is progressive, and by the time the cold front swings through Sunday night and shuts off precipitation most locations could see around a quarter inch of rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * A wintry event remains possible Tue into early on Wed. Confidence remains low on the details. Greatest chance for snowfall accumulations with possible impacts remains across interior Southern New England. * Drying out for Wed through Fri with below normal temperatures favored. Latest guidance suite remained rather consistent with the overall forecast theme for this time period. Still monitoring the potential for some snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by colder and drier conditions late next week. That said, like most early season winter storms, timing is everything. We are still at the time of year where snowfall is more likely at night than during the day. This is largely due to temperatures. These are just the details that are just not known with enough certainty to get specific on potential snowfall accumulations. The latest NationalBlend had a 6-7 inch spread in snowfall accumulations between the 25th and 75th percentile, which is a sign of this uncertainty. To put it another way, there is a rather high probability of at least 1 inch of snowfall across interior southern New England, generally about 70-90%, within the 48-hour period ending 7 AM Thursday. However, the probability of more than 6 inches of snowfall is only 30-50% for that same period. Closer to the coasts, the probability for 1 inch of snowfall is less than 50%, with the probability for 6 inches of snow dropping to less than 20%. It is expected that these probabilities will change with later forecasts, as the details become better known. Once this low pressure passes by later Wednesday, colder air should then arrive for late next week. Early indications are this will be a significant cooldown, with temperatures some 10-20 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z update... Today and Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. W wind becoming more NW. Winds 8-12 kts gusting to 20-25 kts. Winds diminish Saturday night. Sunday...High Confidence. VFR to start, cigs decreasing to MVFR/IFR in -RA. Light SE winds increase becoming S 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday... High confidence. * Gale Warning through early this morning across all waters. Winds and seas slowly decrease into early Saturday. Gale Warnings will be likely replaced with SCAs once the Gale Warning expires. Seas 4-6 ft Saturday decreasing to 2-3 ft overnight then increasing to 4-6 ft again on Sunday. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1253094 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 500 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 456 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Dangerous swimming conditions, HIGH risk of rip currents through this afternoon - Marginal risk for severe storms and flash flooding tonight ahead of a cold front early Sunday morning, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads - Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday morning, then again Sunday night through Monday - Near freezing wind chills over our northern counties early Monday morning and Tuesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The strong cold front we`ve been focused on the past few days remains on track to surge through South Texas between midnight and 7 AM Sunday. Ahead of and along the front, environmental conditions may be conducive for strong to severe storms, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads where a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk is intact. MUCAPE climbs to 1500-2000 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. The threat of high rain rates with storms both ahead and along the front, also poses a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the same area. Once the front passes, a surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf, keeping the boundary in close proximity to the Texas Coast. This will allow for isentropic lift and mid-level PVA to contribute additional medium to high (50-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night through Monday. A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, diminishing rain chances significantly through Wednesday. A surface coastal trough looks to develop ahead of the next cold front late in the work week. Models are not in good agreement and therefore confidence is low in timing/strength of this front. Nonetheless, PWAT values will extend well above normal between 1.5- 2.0" and coincide with plenty of mid-level PVA downstream of a positively tilted trough over the SW CONUS, allowing for a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the work week. Below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 50s Monday and lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s. More seasonal temperatures return late in the work week with highs back in the 60s to lower 70s and lows from the upper 40s to around 60. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 MVFR conditions thanks to reduced CIGs are showing up throughout South Texas, especially near the presence of this morning`s scattered showers. This will continue through mid-morning with a brief lull in the afternoon. CIGs then should raise to be marginal VFR. Tonight from around 00Z, thunderstorm activity increases near KVCT and locations to the northeast. In the vicinity of a thunderstorm, gusty and erratic winds are possible. As the cold front approaches the forecast area after 06Z, CIGs will drop into MVFR/IFR territory as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves south through the end of the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Southeasterly winds of 20-30 knots will continue through this morning, before weakening slightly to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) this afternoon. Although there will likely be a lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday as a strong cold front will push through early Sunday morning and quickly return strong north to northeasterly winds in the wake. Offshore winds fall to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) early next week with onshore flow returning Wednesday. Low rain chances today will increase to a high, 60-90% chance, tonight through Monday night. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms return mid to late next work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through next work week with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday following a strong cold front early Sunday morning. Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Monday. A brief lull in rain chances after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into Tuesday. Low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through Friday. There are no elevated fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 53 59 44 / 20 60 40 60 Victoria 79 47 54 40 / 50 80 30 40 Laredo 82 53 59 46 / 0 20 30 50 Alice 83 51 57 41 / 10 50 40 60 Rockport 80 54 60 46 / 40 80 50 60 Cotulla 80 51 56 42 / 10 20 10 40 Kingsville 82 53 60 43 / 20 50 40 50 Navy Corpus 79 57 63 51 / 20 70 60 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1253093 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:42 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 534 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions persist through tonight. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, generally cool weather continues through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 530 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind. High pressure is centered near or just W of the forecast area this morning. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low have developed. Cold temperatures prevail locally early this morning with current observations depicting upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s-lower 30s on the Eastern Shore and near the coast of SE VA and NE NC, where there is still some mixing. A very cold morning for late November. The Canadian high will settle overhead later this morning and afternoon. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid 40s. Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight lows should still be quite cold and in the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and warmer temps E/SE. - Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal. Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET) keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but will discuss this in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC. - A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC. - Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning, though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around 20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1" only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning. With (slowly) increasing temps, don`t foresee this event being a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only 0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any threat for winter precip would drop to zero. Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For >0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide. Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area (minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some frozen precip inland (confidence is very low). A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest" day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 530 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail through tonight with dry wx expected. A 5-8 kt N/NW wind is expected at SBY/ORF/ECG today, with light and variable winds elsewhere. High clouds overspread the region and thicken this evening and tonight ahead of a cold front. Outlook: Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions to MVFR are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EST Saturday... - Extended Small Craft Advisories through 7 AM this morning due to elevated NW winds. - Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front. - A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible. NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast. As the area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish. For now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 4 AM. The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. The models are in sync with the timing of the front moving through the area Sunday evening. There should be enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level winds. The only potential issue could be the upper trough is lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend of the SCA level winds. So for now, will not add a new headline for possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday. High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into Early Tuesday Morning. This will allow a period of calmer conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of the E- SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as a coastal low develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1253092 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 531 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 * Breezy conditions during the weekend for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, especially along exposed coastal areas. * A moderate risk of rip currents will persist, especially along the north-facing and east facing beaches of the islands. * Pleasant temperatures, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, will prevail across the USVI and PR throughout the forecast period. * Passing showers over windward sectors; afternoon showers and isolated t-storms forecast for this afternoon mainly over western PR posing a limited risk of flooding. * The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends tomorrow, November 30th. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 Since midnight, radar estimated accumulations indicate that showers affected eastern PR, Vieques, Culebra and the USVI. The highest accumulations were at Naguabo where isolated areas received around an inch of rain. The highest accumulations at the USVI were at St. Croix, which received around 0.28 in. Lows ranged from the low to mid 70s at coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico. Reported lows over interior Puerto Rico were in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows were in the 70s at the U.S. Virgin Islands. Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) imagery indicate a patch of moist air gradually exiting the region with values ranging from 1.5 to 1.7 in, at normal values for this time of the year. A mid to upper level trough will continue moving eastward and away from the region, with a weak mid to upper level ridge building over the islands. An upper trough will then approach the region from the north by late Sunday and Monday. PWAT will be at up to normal values (1.5 to 1.8 in) throughout the period, with a slight dip towards below normal values forecast today (due to a patch of drier air). A surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic during the period supporting generally breezy conditions through Sunday, with wind speeds decreasing on Monday as a frontal low moves over the northwestern Atlantic and helps loosen the pressure gradient pushing the surface high eastward. East to east-northeast steering flow will persist during the period. Hi-resolution model guidance continues to suggest overnight and early morning showers (and a few isolated t-storms), mainly for eastern PR and the USVI. Afternoon convection is forecast over western Puerto Rico where isolated t- storms could also develop with areas downwind of El Yunque and of the USVI also possibly seeing convective activty. A limited flooding risk will remain today for the region as heavy downpours over western PR are forecast to occur. 925 mb temperatures are forecast at below normal to normal values for this time of the year. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends this Sunday, November 30th. According to the NHC`s latest Tropical Weather Outlook, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 The forecast remains on track. From Tuesday into Wednesday, expect northeasterly winds to weaken gradually. Precipitable water (PWAT) values show fluctuating moisture levels but, overall, remain near normal for this time of year (1.501.75 inches). This moisture, combined with the northeasterly flow, will support periods of passing showers, mainly affecting windward areas. Afternoon convection also remains possible, particularly across interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours may develop. An upper-level trough will linger over the region through midweek, and we will need to continue monitoring its evolution to determine whether any of its features begin to reflect at the surface and potentially influence local weather conditions. Drier air is still expected to filter in, with PWAT values dropping below 1.4 inches, accompanied by continued breezy easterly winds by the weekend. Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to rise to near- average values, supporting seasonal surface temperatures. No heat- related risks are anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 Mainly VFR conditions forecast during the period. VCSH affecting mainly TJSJ/TISX/TIST. Afternoon SHRA/Isold TSRA developing, mainly over interior to western PR, and affecting PR terminals or their VCTY. E winds at 13-18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 29/14z, decreasing after 29/22z. && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 A surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, interacting with a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic, will promote fresh to strong trade winds this weekend into early next week. This will result in choppy to rough seas across most offshore waters and passages, particularly those offshore Atlantic waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 530 AM AST Sat Nov 29 2025 Similar to yesterday, a moderate risk of rip currents continues along beaches from northwestern to southeastern Puerto Rico, as well as at Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. This moderate risk will persist throughout next week week, with life- threatening rip currents possible, especially along the north- facing beaches of the islands. By tomorrow, southern and southeastern PR, as well as Vieques are forecast to drop to a low risk. Elsewhere, a low risk is expected, however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. For location- specific details, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253091 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 427 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Increasing moisture, instability, and freshening breezes this afternoon and evening will lead to chances of rain along with the potential for thunderstorms. -Breezy to windy conditions continue through early this evening, before slackening later in the evening and overnight. -Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected for all Keys coastal waters through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The cool snap continues across the Florida Keys early this morning. Temperatures along the Island Chain have been quite steady overnight remaining in the mid 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. The cool temperatures are being met with a consistent breeze giving it the Florida winter chill to the air. Strong surface high pressure is centered over the Appalachian Mountains of Virginia and West Virginia. This continues to promote moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail at communities along the Island Chain. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows most of the cloud cover remaining over the marine waters to the south and west of the Island Chain with KBYX radar not detecting any showers associated with these clouds. .FORECAST... The forecast for the next several days will be dominated by a series of high pressure systems traversing across the eastern United States. This will keep a healthy pressure gradient across the area resulting in moderate to fresh northeast breezes this morning strengthening to fresh to strong northeast to east breezes for this afternoon and evening. The cold front that moved through yesterday will start to move back to the northwest as a warm front shifting breezes to the northeast to east. Also, looking at GOES Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products, the leading edge to much moister air is loitering just outside of the Keys coverage area where PWAT values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches are being estimated compared to 0.7 to 1 inch currently over the Keys. Since we have a moisture, wind, and instability surge waiting in the wings, there will no doubt be an expected increase in shower activity across the area later this afternoon and evening. Therefore, timing was introduced to the forecast keeping slight chances in this morning for the Island Chain with chances for the afternoon and tonight. All the ingredients are coming together for an active afternoon and evening. Most of this shower activity will be driven by speed convergence across the area with some directional convergence. Add in the instability to this and now these collisions can lead to potential for thunderstorms in a ripened moist environment, especially over the Straits. Breezes will begin to dramatically slacken overnight Saturday into Sunday. Another high will move across the eastern United States taking the place of the previous high, though, this one won`t be as strong. Therefore, expect mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes to continue through Monday evening before shifting to the east to southeast and further slackening overnight through Tuesday night. Moisture will remain with the main catalyst for showers being driven by mostly speed or directional convergence and other mesoscale processes or remnant boundaries. Another frontal boundary is expected to approach the Keys mid to late week due to a developing coastal low off the Carolina coast. However, before the front approaches, there may be a time frame where the winds go light and variable along with dew points climbing into the lower to mid 70s due to the southeast to south breezes pumping up the dew points. Observations in Florida Bay would suggest SST`s in the mid to upper 60s. If the dew points are able to get close to this along with light and variable wind flow, there may be a window of time for sea fog to develop. We continue to keep an eye on this. The details still remain murky in regards to the front. Some guidance pushes this front through and others stall it right over the Keys. Details will become clearer in the coming days. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all the Florida Keys coastal waters for today. From synopsis, a frontal boundary south of the area, paired with a dominant surface high over the eastern CONUS, will maintain fresh to strong northeasterly breezes today, and Small Craft Advisories will likely extend through tonight. As the front decays and the high shifts northeastward, breezes will begin to slacken by early Sunday. Another cold front may be on the horizon for the middle of the week, reflected in the breezes turning around the clock ahead of it. Shower activity will wax and wane throughout the marine forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 427 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR and east northeast wind gusts near 25 knots will prevail through much of the TAF period. A warm front will lift northward through the terminals this evening, and TEMPO periods of MVFR CIGS/IFR VIS within SHRA, and potentially TSRA, are possible. Confidence in timing remains low, so have included VCSH at this time. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1896, the temperature fell to 51 degrees below zero in Havre, Montana. Temperature records in Key West date back nearly 150 years, and the coldest temperature ever recorded is 41 degrees, brrr! && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 72 79 74 / 40 50 20 10 Marathon 77 73 80 73 / 40 50 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1253090 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 314 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues today. Gusty winds persist early this morning and into much of Saturday, although not as strong as yesterday. Low pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain with it. Cooling down again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring a storm Tuesday into Wednesday which could bring wintry weather to portions of Southern New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Temps in the 30s and low 40s. * Breezy * Colder tonight with lows in the mid 20s. Lake effect snow showers come to an end for southern New England today leaving a cold and breezy start to the weekend. This, as high pressure builds in from the south further decreasing the pressure gradient and continuing the cold NW flow. While blustery, winds won`t reach the speeds we saw yesterday as we only mix down gusts on the order of 20-30 mph. Strongest winds will be the first half of the day, coming down by late afternoon as the high shifts overhead and loss of daytime heating causes the boundary layer to decouple. Mid/high clouds move in from the west between 6 and 9 pm allowing for several hours of potential radiational cooling before warmer air begins to move in on southerly winds toward Sunday morning. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Key Messages... * Low pressure brings rain later Sunday into Sunday night. * Much warmer, in the 40s and low 50s for highs. Clouds continue to increase as a warm front lifts north early Sunday morning. This will bring temperatures back above normal with highs reaching the upper 40s and low 50s (warmest on the south coast). The warm front is associated with a shortwave trough and surface low moving from the Great Lakes through northern New England. While in the warm sector we`ll see widespread stratiform rain showers overspread in the afternoon and evening. The system is progressive, and by the time the cold front swings through Sunday night and shuts off precipitation most locations could see around a quarter inch of rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * A wintry event remains possible Tue into early on Wed. Confidence remains low on the details. Greatest chance for snowfall accumulations with possible impacts remains across interior Southern New England. * Drying out for Wed through Fri with below normal temperatures favored. Latest guidance suite remained rather consistent with the overall forecast theme for this time period. Still monitoring the potential for some snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by colder and drier conditions late next week. That said, like most early season winter storms, timing is everything. We are still at the time of year where snowfall is more likely at night than during the day. This is largely due to temperatures. These are just the details that are just not known with enough certainty to get specific on potential snowfall accumulations. The latest NationalBlend had a 6-7 inch spread in snowfall accumulations between the 25th and 75th percentile, which is a sign of this uncertainty. To put it another way, there is a rather high probability of at least 1 inch of snowfall across interior southern New England, generally about 70-90%, within the 48-hour period ending 7 AM Thursday. However, the probability of more than 6 inches of snowfall is only 30-50% for that same period. Closer to the coasts, the probability for 1 inch of snowfall is less than 50%, with the probability for 6 inches of snow dropping to less than 20%. It is expected that these probabilities will change with later forecasts, as the details become better known. Once this low pressure passes by later Wednesday, colder air should then arrive for late next week. Early indications are this will be a significant cooldown, with temperatures some 10-20 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...High Confidence. VFR. Winds gradually diminish overnight, but remain gusty. W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts, decreasing further after 06Z. Today and Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. W wind becoming more NW. Winds 8-12 kts gusting to 20-25 kts. Winds diminish Saturday night. Sunday...High Confidence. VFR to start, cigs decreasing to MVFR/IFR in -RA. Light SE winds increase becoming S 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, chance SN. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday... High confidence. * Gale Warning through early this morning across all waters. Winds and seas slowly decrease into early Saturday. Gale Warnings will be likely replaced with SCAs once the Gale Warning expires. Seas 4-6 ft Saturday decreasing to 2-3 ft overnight then increasing to 4-6 ft again on Sunday. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1253089 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 257 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions persist through tonight. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, generally cool weather continues through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind. High pressure is centered near or just W of the forecast area this morning. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low have developed. Cold temperatures prevail locally early this morning with current observations depicting low-mid 20s inland and upper 20s-lower 30s on the Eastern Shore and near the coast of SE VA and NE NC, where there is still some mixing. Assuming inland areas can fully radiate under the building high, temps should drop into the upper teens as we approach sunrise. However, nighttime satellite imagery does show some thin high-level clouds on approach and this could moderate the temps by a degree or two. Regardless, a very cold morning for late November. The Canadian high will settle overhead later this morning and afternoon. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid 40s. Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight lows should still be quite cold and in the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and warmer temps E/SE. - Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal. Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET) keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but will discuss this in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC. - A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC. - Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning, though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around 20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1" only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning. With (slowly) increasing temps, don`t foresee this event being a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only 0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any threat for winter precip would drop to zero. Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For >0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide. Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area (minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some frozen precip inland (confidence is very low). A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest" day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail through tonight with mainly clear skies and dry wx expected. Winds become light/calm this morning inland, with a light NW/NNW wind near the coast. Light and variable winds prevail for the daytime hours today, except a ~5 kt N/NW wind at SBY/ORF/ECG. Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sat night, with increasing clouds. Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EST Saturday... - Extended Small Craft Advisories through 7 AM this morning due to elevated NW winds. - Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front. - A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible. NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast. As the area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish. For now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 4 AM. The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. The models are in sync with the timing of the front moving through the area Sunday evening. There should be enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level winds. The only potential issue could be the upper trough is lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend of the SCA level winds. So for now, will not add a new headline for possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday. High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into Early Tuesday Morning. This will allow a period of calmer conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of the E- SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as a coastal low develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1253088 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 241 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions persist through tonight. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, generally cool weather continues through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: - Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind. High pressure is centered near or just W of the forecast area this morning. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low have developed. Cold temperatures prevail locally early this morning with current observations depicting low-mid 20s inland and upper 20s-lower 30s on the Eastern Shore and near the coast of SE VA and NE NC, where there is still some mixing. Assuming inland areas can fully radiate under the building high, temps should drop into the upper teens as we approach sunrise. However, nighttime satellite imagery does show some thin high-level clouds on approach and this could moderate the temps by a degree or two. Regardless, a very cold morning for late November. The Canadian high will settle overhead later this morning and afternoon. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid 40s. Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight lows should still be quite cold and in the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and warmer temps E/SE. - Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal. Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET) keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up to 25-30 MPH. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but will discuss this in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through next week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC. - A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC. - Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning, though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around 20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1" only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning. With (slowly) increasing temps, don`t foresee this event being a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only 0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any threat for winter precip would drop to zero. Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For >0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide. Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area (minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some frozen precip inland (confidence is very low). A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest" day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail through tonight with mainly clear skies and dry wx expected. Winds become light/calm this morning inland, with a light NW/NNW wind near the coast. Light and variable winds prevail for the daytime hours today, except a ~5 kt N/NW wind at SBY/ORF/ECG. Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sat night, with increasing clouds. Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EST Saturday... - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through early this morning due to elevated NW winds. - Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front. - A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible. NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast. As the area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish. For now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 4 AM. The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front. The models are in sync with the timing of the front moving through the area Sunday evening. There should be enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level winds. The only potential issue could be the upper trough is lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend of the SCA level winds. So for now, will not add a new headline for possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday. High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into Early Tuesday Morning. This will allow a period of calmer conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of the E- SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as a coastal low develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the winds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1253087 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 237 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues overhead today and then slides offshore tonight. A weak warm front will move north through ENC Sunday morning before a cold front crosses in the evening. Behind this system high pressure will briefly build in from the north Monday, with a stronger low pressure system expected to move across the Carolinas Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Well below normal conditions continue with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s Cold high pressure will continue over the area through today. After a frosty and cold start this morning, with temps in the low to mid 20s, we will be slow to warm with still well below normal heights over the region. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to low 50s, some 10-15 degrees below normal, under mostly sunny skies and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Cold conditions expected again tonight with lows below freezing inland - Rapidly moderating conditions Sunday as a warm front lifts through the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s possible - Isolated to scattered showers possible Sunday ahead of and along a cold front which will move through the area Sunday evening Cold and dry high pressure will retreat tonight, but we will still see good radiational cooling the first half of the night with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and 30s closer to the coast. By early tomorrow morning a weak warm front will lift to the southern NC coast with temperatures rapidly rising from the 30s to the 50s or even low 60s. As the warm front lifts through ENC Sunday morning, southerly flow will develop boosting temps into the mid to upper 60s. A fair amount of clouds are likely with moisture increasing, but any locations that see breaks of sun will have the opportunity to warm towards 70 degrees. High res models continue to indicate the potential for a cluster of scattered showers moving through the forecast area during the day Sunday, likely associated with a prefrontal trough, and have introduced some low end PoPs (15-20%) which may need to be increased later on if this trend continues. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday into Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding - Below normal conditions continue the rest of next week, with the potential for another low pressure system to move through the Carolinas late week An active weather pattern is shaping up early to mid next week. During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast Monday, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week. The majority of guidance continues to depict low pressure taking a "just" inland track as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Though there remains some uncertainty with the track and intensity still, most model solutions show the potential for Gale Force winds and heavy rain. With this track we will be on the "warm" side of the low, but just barely. There remains potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the immediate coast and over the nearshore marine waters. A plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low. Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. That said, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates. For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week, but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may impact the area towards the end of next week. Temperatures fall back down below normal Monday, but bounce back up on Tuesday. Below normal conditions then likely return for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1145 PM Friday...High confidence in VFR flight cats through the period as cold high pressure builds over terminals from the south and west. Airmass likely too dry to support any fog outside of very shallow steam fog in well sheltered areas adjacent to creeks/rivers. However, area is already mostly decoupled and we are going to radiate quite well. Have added tempo MIFG group to PGV where moisture tends to pool. Wouldn`t be shocked to see some reduced non-impactful VIS OBS from OAJ and EWN either, but not enough confidence to add to TAFs. Modest uptick in high clouds tomorrow morning with winds veering northeasterly at 5 kt or less. Outlook: The high moves offshore Saturday night with precip chances increasing later on Sun as warm front approaches, and along with it a chance for subVFR cond developing. Low pressure system working up the Carolina coast expected to bring rain to the area Tuesday, subVFR flight cats probable. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Sat... Key Messages... - Small Craft conditions likely develop Sunday night behind a cold front through most of Monday - Increasing potential for Gale Force winds Tuesday as a strong low pressure system moves over the Carolinas - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday With high pressure centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic, northerly winds at 10-20 kts will persist over ENC the rest of the morning. Winds subside to NE 5-15 kts this afternoon as the high moves nearly overhead. Winds will veer tonight as a weak warm front moves through the waters by early tomorrow morning with winds becoming S at 5-15 kts. Southerly winds increase to 10-20 kts Sunday afternoon, and then switch to the NW Sunday night behind a cold front. Winds strengthen to NNW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts overnight into Monday morning. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this morning, and then subside to 2-3 ft through tomorrow evening. Seas will quickly respond to increasing winds Sunday night building to 4-6 ft by sunrise. Outlook: Improving conditions expected the rest of Monday, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system is expected to move through the coastal waters Tuesday. There is potential for Gale Force winds across much of the coastal waters, with the exact strength of the winds (and wind direction) still to be worked out. Hazardous marine conditions will continue for some time behind this system through Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Sat...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253086 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 221 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until Saturday evening for hazardous winds and seas. Inexperienced boaters should remain out of the water until conditions improve. - Warming trend expected over the weekend and into the first half of next week. - The next frontal boundary moves through on Tuesday bringing the next chance of showers and storms to the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 We will have one more cold morning before a warm up sets up over Florida. Early morning low temps will drop into the mid to upper 30`s along the Nature Coast and mid 40`s to mid 50`s for central and southwest Florida. Later today, a zonal upper pattern sets up over Florida as surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern Gulf producing continued rain-free conditions through the weekend. This will also bring a further shift in winds to a more northeast through east direction and will allow for a gradual warm up for the latter part of the weekend and into the first half of next week. Mild temperatures in the low 70`s to around 80 expected this afternoon, then near average to slightly above average temps expected Sunday through Tuesday. By late Monday evening, models develop another area of low pressure over the northern gulf coast states and move it northeastward through the southeast U.S. toward the mid-Atlantic states. The associated cold front will move across Florida on Tuesday producing the next good chance of showers and isolated storms, with the highest coverage over the Nature Coast. This front clears the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the area. This will produce clearing conditions and a slight cool down for the mid to latter part of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR, rain-free conditions and northeast through east winds around 10 knots continue through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges southwest over Florida and into the eastern gulf waters producing rain-free conditions through the weekend. Breezy east-northeast winds around 20 knots expected, which has warranted the continuance of the Small Craft Advisory through this evening. Decreasing winds to around 10- 15 knots expected on Sunday and into next week. The next cold front brings showers and storms to the area next Tuesday, but winds and seas should remain below headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 High pressure ridges across Florida producing rain-free conditions through Monday. Moisture rebounds starting today with no other fire weather concerns anticipated over the weekend. The next chance of rain will be on Tuesday as another cold front moves across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 80 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 75 60 83 64 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 79 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 76 53 83 58 / 0 0 10 10 SPG 76 64 81 67 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1253084 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Poor beach and boating conditions persist today. A high risk of rip currents is forecast at all local beaches and small craft should exercise caution across the local Atlantic waters. - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, though some isolated sprinkles and showers due to persistent onshore flow cannot be ruled out. - Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions forecast mid to late week behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US will gradually lift northeastward today towards the Mid-Atlantic. Locally, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to persist thanks to PWATs of less than an inch. However, winds veer easterly across the area today, and some low-topped, isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across the local Atlantic waters. There is a low chance for some of these showers to move onshore due to the easterly flow, so have a 15% chance for rain primarily from the Cape southward through the morning hours. CAM guidance then indicates activity waning into the afternoon hours, with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the surface high is forecast to weaken and push offshore as an area of low pressure and its attendant cold front move eastward across the central US. Moisture continues to increase locally thanks to the persistent easterly flow, with a return of rain chances across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Warmer tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide. At the local beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are forecast today due to higher seas and persistent, strong onshore flow. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. Sunday-Tuesday...The aforementioned cold front moving across the central US is anticipated to stall out across the southeastern US late this weekend into early next week, just north of the Florida peninsula. This will result in persistent onshore flow and increasing moisture across east central Florida through Monday, which will support isolated showers across portions of east central Florida and isolated to scattered showers across the local Atlantic waters. Monday into Tuesday, and area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary across the Gulf. This low will lift northeastward into Tuesday, moving from the Gulf towards the Mid- Atlantic. This will finally drag a cold front across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Rain chances are forecast to increase out ahead of the front, with PoPs currently reaching 20-50% areawide, with the greatest rain chances focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. The environment looks unfavorable for storm development, so continued to leave out mention of any thunder for the time being. The front will move southward across the peninsula into the overnight hours, with activity gradually diminishing as drier air moves in behind the front. Temperatures across east central Florida are forecast to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday through Monday, increasing into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Lows generally remain in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible across the north on Tuesday night. Wednesday-Friday...The front sags south of the area early on Wednesday, with an area of surface high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern US. Dry air settles across the Florida peninsula, which will keep conditions mostly dry locally mid to late week. Northerly winds Wednesday and Thursday eventually veer to out of the east to south-southeast on Friday, which will help advect moisture northward towards east central Florida late this week into the weekend. A return of low rain chances will be possible late Friday with the next possible frontal passage occurring over the weekend. Through Friday, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 70s to low 80s, with the temperature gradient going from north to south, respectively. Lows generally in the 50s to low 60s areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Poor boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters through at least today and into tonight. Winds veer onshore as the surface high to the north moves northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas maintain between 4 to 6 feet through Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution across all local Atlantic waters due to these poor boating conditions. Late Sunday and into early next week, onshore winds subside to 10 to 15 knots, with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the local Atlantic waters on Tuesday, with winds veering to out of the south-southwest ahead of it at 15 to 20 knots and then veering to out of the north on Wednesday behind the front at 10 to 15 knots. Portions of the offshore waters may build back to 6 feet very briefly Tuesday into Wednesday, but the vast majority of the waters are anticipated to remain between 2 to 5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the local Atlantic waters each day, with the greatest rain chances forecast on Tuesday out ahead of the front. High pressure builds in behind the front on Wednesday, with dry conditions anticipated once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR through the TAF period. North winds at most terminals shift northeast to east into late morning. However, winds along the Brevard and Treasure Coast may show a more dramatic shift, starting west or northwest and becoming east by daybreak. Early morning winds around 10 kts or less become gusty by mid to late morning. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out along the coast, but have excluded any mention of precip in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 61 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 72 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 74 64 79 66 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 72 58 80 62 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 72 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 72 61 80 64 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253083 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 135 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. - There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend. - There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rains late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Surface high pressure will slide eastward with surface winds becoming easterly. The cool and dry airmass will start to modify today with increasing dewpoints and highs ranging from the lower 60s across the northern areas to the lower 70s across the southeast big bend. Overnight lows tonight will be milder compared to the last couple of nights with mid 40s to low 50s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Rain chances continue to look high for early next week as a fairly strong upper level trough affects the area and interacts with a surface frontal boundary draped across the region. The 00z GFS develops an 850 mb jet of 40-50 knots across the area on Monday night. There should be plenty of forcing for widespread rain with the heaviest amounts across the western half of the area. Given the dynamics, a few thunderstorms may also occur on Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak instability moves inland. The severe weather threat will likely depend on how much instability can recover northward as shear will likely be high. This system will exit later on Tuesday with a dry day expected on Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, another system could approach with another chance of rain by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Surface winds will gradually become easterly today. Increasing moisture is expected to result in a SCT-BKN stratocumulus deck late this afternoon into the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. A strong cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 127 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday. This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. In the meantime, extreme to exceptional drought continues. The most recent local drought information can be found by visiting www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 Panama City 66 54 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 63 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 Albany 62 45 71 49 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 66 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 65 57 70 60 / 0 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ early this morning for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1253081 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 100 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 630 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Cool again tonight, but not as cold as last night. Turning warmer overnight at the immediate coast where there is a low chance for sprinkles or a brief shower. - At our beaches, a strong southward-flowing longshore current is present; there is a moderate risk of rip currents. Hazardous boating conditions also persist. Rough surf at the beaches will exist on Saturday due to the moderate onshore breezes. - Turning warmer this weekend. Low to medium rain chances anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 Temperatures are already dropping in a hurry across the district, into the 50s to low 60s. This drop will be more dramatic in the evening before leveling out overnight. Over the interior, expect lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, coolest northwest of Orlando. At the coast, a sharp inversion in the lowest 1 KFT is forecast to form this evening as onshore winds develop immediately above the ground. This is in response to strong high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic states. Through the night, the warm/moist onshore layer deepens toward the surface, with guidance showing a classic, tight temperature discontinuity along the Intracoastal. Because of this, our barrier islands should hold in the 60s through the night, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Residents between I-95 and the Intracoastal are likely to see a drop in temps this evening before the start to rise later in the overnight. Suffice to say, once the sun rises tomorrow, temperatures will quickly warm above where they were all day today. With a modest layer of moisture coming onshore at around 3-5 KFT, have added sprinkles and a very small chance for showers, at the coast and mainly south of Cape Canaveral, later on tonight as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 Current-Tonight...Even under mostly sunny skies behind the latest cold front, a chilly day overall as temperatures struggle back into the 60s and with a breezy/gusty northerly wind - it feels even cooler. Fairly stout high pressure continues to build toward the Deep South and mid Atlc states and is partly responsible for the tight pressure gradient (lower pressures southward) allowing for the elevated winds. Gusts to 25 to 30 mph are occurring - typically highest along the coast. Dry air will continue to filter down the peninsula through tonight. Winds at 925 mb veer onshore early tonight and a little more slowly at the surface (along the coast) overnight. As such lows should realize M-U40s north/west of I-4, L50s southward toward Lake Okee, and M-U50s toward the coast, except L60s across barrier islands and immediate Treasure Coast. The strong northerly winds will cause a southward-flowing longshore current within the surf zone, which poses a risk to those entering the ocean. A longshore current can pull swimmers into deeper water and potentially exposing them to dangerous rip currents. In addition to the longshore current, there is also a Moderate risk of rip currents. If heading to area beaches and entering the chilly surf, be sure to always swim near a lifeguard and heed the guidance of local beach safety officials. Sat-Sun...The surface high centered across the mid Atlc states gets nudged seaward Sat night/Sun with the approach of the next low pressure system. Dry conditions persist over land until Sun when moisture begins to pool northward, as we keep a small PoP (20%) across the Treasure Coast counties. An isolated lightning storm cannot be ruled out late aftn Sun. Winds veering ERLY but still 10- 15 mph and gusty on Sat, with the pgrad finally relaxing into Sun, thus lighter wind speeds (7-12 mph) and fewer gusts. Temps begin to trend upward with highs in the L-M70s on Sat and back to U70s to L80s on Sun. Mins Sat overnight/Sun morning in the 50s to near 60F across the interior and L-M60s along the coast, except U60s for immediate St. Lucie and Martin coasts. Mins Sun night/Mon morning in the 60s nearly areawide, save for some U50s in portions of north Lake and NW Volusia counties. A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches on Sat. Also, with the wind flow veering onshore, expect rough surf as well. Mon-Fri...Previous Modified...The next cold front will push towards the Florida peninsula early next week, with low pressure developing across the northwest Gulf and lifting northeastward. Isolated to widely scattered (15-26%) showers will be possible on Mon, with coverage increasing on Tue (20-50% - highest I-4 corridor) as the front moves southward across the area. There is low confidence in storm development at this time, so we continue to keep only mention of showers across the peninsula at this time. Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to continue warming, with highs in the U70s to L80s for most, perhaps M80s for portions of St. Lucie and Martin counties on Tue. Overnight lows remain steady in the 60s for Mon/Tue mornings, cooling into the 50s to L60s Wed morning (post-frontal). Towards the middle of next week, the cold front will move south of the area, with high pressure building across the area and drier air filtering in from the north. Mostly dry conditions forecast from Wed-Fri, with afternoon temperatures generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s to L60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 A Small Craft Advisory continues areawide. Hazardous boating conditions continue across all of the local waters thru at least this evening due to gusty northerly winds of 20 kts and seas building to 5-8 ft. Some gusts to 25-30 kts expected. Only minimal improvement in conditions into Sat as both winds/seas are slow to decrease. Poor to Hazardous conditions remain thru Sat, esp over the Gulf Stream where winds/seas will be highest. Northerly winds will begin to veer this evening, overnight, and into Saturday (NE, ENE, E) with the pgrad slowly relaxing further Sat night/Sun. By late Sat or early Sun we are hopeful that all remaining Advisories and/or Cautionary Statements will be dropped. Seas will gradually subside to 3-5 ft early-mid next week. Seas could build back to 6 ft well offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet) Tue-Tue night surrounding the next front. An onshore wind component will continue into Mon evening, then is forecast to veer further to southerly, then of an offshore component Tue-Wed with approach/eventual passage of the next frontal boundary. Rain and lightning storm chances enter the picture again as early as Sun, with highest potential on Tue (pre-frontal). Models continue to speed up the next low pressure system as the cold front is now forecast to move across the waters as early as Tue night, followed by a return to high pressure and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR through the TAF period. North winds at most terminals shift northeast to east into late morning. However, winds along the Brevard and Treasure Coast may show a more dramatic shift, starting west or northwest and becoming east by daybreak. Early morning winds around 10 kts or less become gusty by mid to late morning. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out along the coast, but have excluded any mention of precip in the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the interior this afternoon, especially Lake and far western portions of Orange and Osceola counties. Dry air has settled across east central Florida, which will cause minimum RH values to fall below 35% for several hours across these areas. In addition, a tight pressure gradient across the local area will promote northerly winds to reach 15 mph and greater at times with higher gusts likely. The only criteria not being met for Red Flag Warning issuance is the Significant Fire Potential, which continues to remain at a "low" risk for today. Sensitive fire weather conditions across the rest of the interior will be possible with minimum RH values of 35-45%, with lower concern along the coast, though the breezy/gusty northerly winds could create containment concerns should a fire ignite. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 61 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 MCO 72 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 74 64 79 66 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 72 58 80 62 / 0 10 10 10 SFB 72 60 80 63 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 72 61 80 64 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1253080 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1206 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Dangerous swimming conditions, HIGH risk of rip currents through this afternoon - Marginal risk for severe storms and flash flooding tonight ahead of a cold front early Sunday morning, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads - Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday morning, then again Sunday night through Monday - Near freezing wind chills over our northern counties early Monday morning and Tuesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The strong cold front we`ve been focused on the past few days remains on track to surge through South Texas between midnight and 7 AM Sunday. Ahead of and along the front, environmental conditions may be conducive for strong to severe storms, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads where a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk is intact. MUCAPE climbs to 1500-2000 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. The threat of high rain rates with storms both ahead and along the front, also poses a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the same area. Once the front passes, a surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf, keeping the boundary in close proximity to the Texas Coast. This will allow for isentropic lift and mid-level PVA to contribute additional medium to high (50-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night through Monday. A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, diminishing rain chances significantly through Wednesday. A surface coastal trough looks to develop ahead of the next cold front late in the work week. Models are not in good agreement and therefore confidence is low in timing/strength of this front. Nonetheless, PWAT values will extend well above normal between 1.5- 2.0" and coincide with plenty of mid-level PVA downstream of a positively tilted trough over the SW CONUS, allowing for a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the work week. Below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 50s Monday and lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s. More seasonal temperatures return late in the work week with highs back in the 60s to lower 70s and lows from the upper 40s to around 60. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 A BKN-OVC cloud deck will persist across the region today with CIGs remaining marginally between MVFR/VFR through 12Z. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be focused toward the Victoria Crossroads, with isolated storms between 18Z-00Z, with a more linear line of convection (leading to gusty and erratic winds associated with storm outflows and chances for hail) with the cold front passage between 02Z-06Z Sunday. Winds will be SSE`ly today at near 20 kts gusting to 35 kts. While outside of this TAF cycle, winds will switch to be more NE`ly behind the frontal passage beyond 06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Southeasterly winds of 20-30 knots will continue through this morning, before weakening slightly to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) this afternoon. Although there will likely be a lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday as a strong cold front will push through early Sunday morning and quickly return strong north to northeasterly winds in the wake. Offshore winds fall to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) early next week with onshore flow returning Wednesday. Low rain chances today will increase to a high, 60-90% chance, tonight through Monday night. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms return mid to late next work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through next work week with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday following a strong cold front early Sunday morning. Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Monday. A brief lull in rain chances after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into Tuesday. Low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through Friday. There are no elevated fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 53 59 44 / 20 60 40 60 Victoria 79 47 54 40 / 50 80 30 40 Laredo 82 53 59 46 / 0 20 30 50 Alice 83 51 57 41 / 10 50 40 60 Rockport 80 54 60 46 / 40 80 50 60 Cotulla 80 51 56 42 / 10 20 10 40 Kingsville 82 53 60 43 / 20 50 40 50 Navy Corpus 79 57 63 51 / 20 70 60 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1253079 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1257 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Freeze Warning this Morning for Inland Southeast GA & - High Risk for Rip Currents NE Florida Beaches Today - Beneficial Rainfall Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warmer today and continued breezy with more passing clouds. After an inland morning freeze and frost, temperatures will warm into the 60s across most locations to lower 70s toward our north-central FL zones roughly from Gainesville toward Palatka southward under breezy easterly winds. Dry conditions continue, however, low level clouds will increase from the Atlantic coast through the day as a coastal trough forms offshore. A few light, spotty coastal sprinkles will be possible tonight as the trough pivots northward up the coast, but measurable precipitation is not expected. With the influx of shallow level moisture today under east winds, introduced patchy fog after midnight tonight for locations near the I-95 corridor in southeast GA to the St. Johns River basin of northeast Florida. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s tonight across inland southeast GA to the 50s south of I-10 toward the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures will warm up Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s as a warm front lifts northward over the forecast area, and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Southwest steering flow will raise PWATs just over an inch Sunday, increasing cold cover, however rain chances will likely hold off until Monday but a few sprinkles are possible Sunday. Rain chances remain at about 15-20% on Monday with low thunder chances over land. High temperatures Monday will range from the mid 60s over southeast Georgia and near 80 in north central Florida. Higher rain chances will begin just after midnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning for inland southeast Georgia. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday, a strengthening surface low will move across the area, bringing early morning showers and thunderstorms, and much needed rainfall across most of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Strong thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday given high PWATs (1.5- 2.0 inches), a low level jet near 40-55 knots, and a low CAPE-high shear environment. Rainfall totals are generally at about 0.25-0.75 inches (highest over inland southeast Georgia), with the NBM showing highest probabilities for >1 inch over Coffee, Atkinson, and Jeff Davis counties. By late evening, precipitation will be through the forecast area, paving the way for a cooler night. Wednesday and Thursday will be chillier, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies and northerly winds. At this time, low temperatures mid-week are above freezing but perhaps some patchy frost formation is possible over inland southeast Georgia. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period. Breezy ENE winds develop mid-morning Saturday with gusts 20-25 kts at times. Coastal low clouds with bases 4-6 kft agl increase this afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure builds northeast of the region today as a coastal trough develops over the local waters. The coastal trough will break down Sunday into Monday as a weakening front approaches from the north then begins to stall just north of the local waters into Monday night. This front will morph into a lifting warm front ahead of a stronger frontal system as it approaches late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly winds increase Tuesday near Small Craft levels with a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south of the local waters late Tuesday, then high pressure builds northwest of the region mid-week as winds subside below Advisory levels. Rip Currents: High risk today for NE FL beaches with Moderate for SE GA beaches as onshore/easterly winds develops. Rough surf at times with breakers 4-5 ft at FL beaches with 2-4 ft at SE GA beaches. Moderate risk expected Sunday for all local beaches as strength of onshore flow weakens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday night as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T`storms with a wetting rainfall across most of the area. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... AMG 43 72 48 66 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 53 71 56 67 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 51 77 56 71 / 10 10 10 20 SGJ 58 76 61 74 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 52 79 57 76 / 0 10 10 20 OCF 53 79 58 78 / 0 10 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253078 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1156 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday, with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A zonal flow regime will remain in place through Sunday across the Gulf South. In the low levels, the region will find itself placed between a departing high and an advancing front the next couple of days. Winds will veer to a more southeasterly direction and temperatures will warm back to more average readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday afternoon. This southeast flow off the Gulf will also bring moisture back into the region. PWATS will increase dramatically throughout the day and will be around the 75th percentile by Saturday evening. This will be most noticeably marked by a gradual lowering of the cloud deck through the day as moisture deepens. By late Saturday night into Sunday, a fast moving shortwave trough axis and the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to slide through the region. Ample deep layer forcing and moisture will support a broad area of post-frontal stratiform rainfall development from late Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall totals of a half inch to up to an inch are probable with this weekend rain event. By Sunday night, the front is expected to stall over the northern Gulf as the parent shortwave feature quickly lifts to the northeast. Mid-level flow will remain southerly to southwesterly, and this will allow for weak isentropic forcing over the cooler and more stable surface based airmass to linger through Monday morning. Skies will remain overcast and isolated light rain showers will persist over the area due to this isentropic forcing. Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will see a wide gradient with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of the front in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro, but readings also climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in coastal Mississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana. Lows will also see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the Louisiana coast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10 and lower 50s south of I-10 Sunday night. A very similar temperature spread is expected Monday into Monday night as the frontal boundary remains stalled just offshore. A much stronger southern stream system embedded within the broader zonal flow pattern will push through the area Monday into Monday night. Very strong and deep forcing will be in place as both a highly difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics develop over a region of enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A Gulf low will form on Monday beneath these favorable upper level dynamics, and this low will pass directly through the region Monday night. The isentropic forcing over the cooler surface based airmass to the north of the stationary front will also contribute to the deep layer forcing across the area. All of these factors will support widespread moderate to heavy stratiform rainfall from Monday afternoon through Monday night. PWATS are forecast to rise to daily max value of around 1.5 inches, and heavy rainfall will be a concern. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches could occur. One area of concern for any surface based convection and a low end threat of strong to severe storms could be over the eastern Gulf waters and potentially as far north as coastal Mississippi late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. This will be highly dependent on the exact track of the deepening Gulf low, so uncertainty is greater than average. However, a review of model soundings in the area indicate marginally conducive shear and instability parameters over the aforementioned time period. As more high resolution model data comes in, forecast confidence any the evolution of the low and any surface based convective threat will increase. To the immediate north of the front, mid- level lapse rates may support an isolated elevated thunderstorm within broader stratiform rain shield in coastal Louisiana, but thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Model guidance remains in good agreement that a cooler and drier airmass will quickly advect into the area on Tuesday as the Gulf low and attendant cold front sweep well east and south of the region. These conditions will linger into Wednesday as a surface high passes to the north of the area. Highs will only climb into the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon and overnight lows will easily fall below freezing along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. The cold temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This brief break in a more unsettled pattern will be short-lived as the model guidance is in decent agreement that another fast moving shortwave trough embedded with the persistent zonal flow pattern aloft will begin to impact the area on Thursday. Model spread begins to increase as we move into Friday and Friday night, and overall forecast confidence decreases dramatically. It does look like a return to a wetter period of weather will occur on Thursday and Friday, and have opted to largely stick with the NBM output for both days. This results in PoP of 40 to 60 percent over this period. Temperature spreads are also large as the positioning of a frontal boundary over the area has large spatial differences. NBM deterministic output has readings running slightly cooler than average with highs the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s, and have stuck with this for day 6 and 7 forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions will be the rule even as overall mid and high level cloud cover increases. Winds will remain gusty at over 12 knots from a general easterly component at NEW through the period due to continued thermal mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface over the warmer lake waters. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 East winds of around 20 knots will begin to ease Saturday afternoon and will remain below advisory criteria at 10 to 15 knots through Sunday afternoon. Sunday night through Tuesday will see more hazardous conditions for small craft return as a low pressure system passes through the coastal waters. Northerly winds will increase back above 20 knots and seas will rise back to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters. As high pressure briefly builds back over the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and weaken to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also subside back to 1 to 3 feet as these calmer winds take hold. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 38 66 50 58 / 0 10 60 70 BTR 42 70 55 62 / 0 10 60 70 ASD 39 69 55 70 / 0 0 20 40 MSY 50 70 60 70 / 0 0 20 40 GPT 43 67 56 71 / 0 0 10 40 PQL 37 67 54 71 / 0 0 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ552-555-557- 570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1253076 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1244 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A storm system should bring some impacts to our area late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today will begin with thick cirrus and mid-clouds across the forecast area. Near term guidance indicates that the high clouds will clear from west to east during the afternoon, resulting in several hours of mostly to partly sunny conditions before sunset. Sfc high pressure centered over mid-Atlantic states will ridge across the region today. The pressure gradient will support steady east-northeast winds, gradually increasing to around 10 mph this afternoon. Along the coast, wind gusts near 20 mph is possible at times. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 50s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 60s across SE GA. Tonight, the region will remain under SW H5 flow, with a broad trough over the Mississippi River Valley. High resolution guidance indicates that an inverted sfc trough will develop over the Gulf Stream. Isolated showers are forecast to develop within the sfc trough, generally remaining over the outer GA and SC waters. Cloud cover should gradually increase over the CWA as the trough deepens. Low temperatures may fall to the mid 30s across the inland counties, ranging near 50 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For Sunday, the weak coastal trough mixes out ahead of an approaching cold front which will allow for a brief return of warmer temperatures. 850mb temperatures reach back up into the upper single digits expect, so expecting highs in the mid to upper 60s across southeastern South Carolina and upper 60s to mid 70s across southeastern Georgia. Isentropic lift may again result in some weak showers developing during the afternoon hours, but the better chances arrive during the evening and overnight hours as the cold front slips through the area along with some scattered and weak shortwaves. On Monday, surface high pressure builds into the region from the north throughout the day, with the aforementioned cold front being pushed off to our south into northern Florida. This will drop afternoon temperatures back down into the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest across southeast Georgia. Chances for rainfall have lowered as the previously expected shortwaves have sped up and moved across with the cold front, though mostly cloudy skies remain expected. As a trough move towards the area before lifting up into the northeast, a surface low will be moving towards the area across the Gulf which will be increasing rainfall chances late Monday and overnight into Tuesday. Model consensus have shifted the surface low a touch further inland, keeping the heaviest rainfall more across the midlands than the coast. Timing of the heaviest rainfall for the region looks most likely during the morning hours on Tuesday as the surface low traverses the region, though lingering light rain will be possible into the evening hours. Despite precipitable water values approaching the 90th percentile of climatology near 1.5 inches, rainfall amounts look to remain largely in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, highest across inland southeast South Carolina. Given the current drought conditions and lack of recent appreciable rainfall, no flooding concerns are expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Chances for rainfall dwindle overnight into Wednesday, with surface high pressure building into the region behind the cold front. With strong zonal flow aloft, the surface high pressure moves offshore fairly quickly into Thursday morning, bringing temperatures back to near normal though likely remaining a few degrees shy in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thursday and Friday. Model consensus remains rather poor for the end of the week as they struggle to determine what to do with the strong shortwave/trough along the west coast, with the NBM bringing back low end (20-40%) chances for rainfall on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are low probabilities of flight restrictions Sunday and Monday, but would most likely be due to low ceilings. A storm system will bring higher probabilities of flight restrictions late Monday into Tuesday, with both low ceilings and lowered vsbys possible. && .MARINE... Today through tonight, a ridge of high pressure will remain across the nearshore waters of SC and GA. An inverted trough should gradually deepen over the Gulf Stream late tonight. East-northeast winds around 20 kts should persists across the marine zones today. As the trough develops tonight, winds should veer from the east and subside to 10 to 15 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 3-4 ft, with 5 ft seas possible across the outer GA waters this afternoon and evening. Sunday through Wednesday: Winds weaken on Sunday, but will be increasing throughout the day on Monday as a cold front approaches the area from the west. Winds may begin to approach small craft criteria on Monday along the southeast South Carolina coast, with some 6 foot seas also possible. Highest rainfall chances will occur early Tuesday morning as a surface low pressure is expected to traverse the region, with winds currently looking sub-advisory, but seas do begin to approach/exceed 6 feet again on Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday, with conditions improving. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253075 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty onshore winds are occurring. This will make for some rough marine conditions on area bays and coastal Gulf waters, where a small craft advisory is in effect. It will also bring in warmer and more humid air to the area in advance of our next shot of rain and storms. - Those rain chances will creep back into the forecast with possible showers overnight into this morning, but peak ahead of and along our next next cold front tonight. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance. - An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. We can expect to see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing to a portion of the area, most likely north of the Houston metro. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A cold front is set to move through the area Saturday night, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms along with it. Out ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to begin overnight as low-level convergence increases and a shortwave makes it way across the area. This activity is expected to persist through out the day Saturday and appears to merge with the front that moves through later that night. With this scenario, there is the potential for training of storms to occur and produce locally heavy rainfall. This has resulted in WPC placing the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall...a couple of caveats with that, though...with being in a drought, the flood potential highly dependent on how fast the soil can absorb the rainfall compared to how high the rain rate is. Typically, in colder weather the soil has a little more difficulty with quicker absorption. We have been on the warmer side for this time of year, and dry soils may mitigate the potential, so the flood potential remains marginal, but something to be aware of. Similarly, SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday. CAPE values are not all that impressive (around ~1000 J/kg, which is enough to help kick off storms, but on the lower end of the spectrum energy wise)...shear, however, is at a sufficient level to result in a few organized storms/supercells. 0-6 km Bulk Shear values are coming in around 30-40 kts ...and winds do veer with height...typically in low CAPE/high shear environments we could get organized storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes. Timing of main line of storms has slowed down by a few hours with the latest guidance. While showers and storms will be ongoing out ahead of the front, the front itself is not expected to arrive to the Brazos Valley until around 9 PM (give or take a couple hours). It is expected to push offshore around 3 AM (again, give or take a couple hours). A drastic change in temperatures will occur behind the front Saturday into Sunday as strong CAA brings a chilly and dry airmass in the area. Highs for Sunday through Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 50s for most of the area, with some locations in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods struggling to even get into the 50s. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side Sunday night through Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s. We will need to continue to monitor the potential for some locations to get into freezing temperatures Monday night for rural areas to the west of the metro and locations to the north of the metro. Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, which won`t do much to bring daytime temperatures out of the 50s, it will put a damper on the potential for freezing temperatures that night. Onshore flow will precede the next front later in the week next week. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 503 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Sustained southeasterly winds of 10-15kt will continue through Saturday afternoon. Areas south of I-10 will continue to see gusts to 20-25kt through the next few hours before stopping, but will return area-wide by the mid-morning hours on Saturday. Winds will also be shifting more southerly through the day on Saturday. VFR conditions with BKN to OVC mid/high level clouds will persist across the region until late tonight, but some lower CIGs (down to around 2500ft) will begin to encroach CLL and UTS early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Increasing moisture ahead of this front will lead to widely scattered showers across the area Saturday afternoon. This front is expected to pass through the area late Saturday evening into overnight Saturday, and will bring a chance of thunderstorms with its passage. FROPA will likely occur at CLL between 2-4z, at IAH between 5-7z, and then off the coast between 7-9z. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind the front. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 mall Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters as moderate to strong southeasterly winds and building seas continue. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that should be pushing off the coast after midnight, around 2am, and across the Gulf waters through the late night and early Sunday morning hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate to strong offshore flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake of the front. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push overhead Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters. At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues. The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a rip current statement is in place for that danger. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 73 41 50 / 20 70 80 10 Houston (IAH) 58 75 48 55 / 20 50 80 30 Galveston (GLS) 64 76 56 60 / 10 30 80 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1253074 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1232 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Generally cool weather continues through next week. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 847 PM EST Friday... Key Message: - Very cold tonight with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast. High pressure continues to build across the area this evening and winds have dropped quickly in response. Occasional gusts of 15-20 mph are still being observed along the Eastern Shore while elsewhere, winds have dropped to 5-10 mph. Temperatures range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, with dew points in the teens. Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected overnight as the strong high settles over the area. As a result, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected for a majority of the area. This will lead to the coldest night of the season so far. Upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland). Lows will fall into the upper 20s-30F near the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Continued cool and dry weather with less wind on Saturday. - Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night. Still cool with lighter winds on Sat as the high remains over the area. Forecast highs are in the 40s (most in the mid 40s) with lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast (due to the high moving offshore allowing winds to become light out of the S-SE). Low pressure is progged to track from the Midwest to the Great Lakes from Sat night into Sun. This will bring an increase in clouds to the area Sat night and Sunday from west to east. Precipitation likely remains to our west through sunrise on Sun as the low levels will initially be very dry. Light precipitation should begin to reach the ground in the Piedmont by early Sun afternoon and then across the remainder of the area later Sun afternoon into Sun evening. This should mainly be in the form of rain, but there is a nonzero chance of light sleet/freezing rain across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sun morning if precipitation begins earlier than expected. For now, confidence in this is low, so only have rain in the forecast. The other forecast challenge on Sunday will be temperatures. Despite SSW winds across the FA, there will be a decent temperature gradient with only 40s NW of Richmond and lower-mid 60s SE (where there will be more sunshine). The greatest uncertainity in forecast temps is from the the south- central VA Piedmont to Richmond with solutions ranging from the 40s to 50s depending on the arrival of clouds/precip. Will keep NBM temps in the forecast for now. Any rain moves offshore by Sun night as the low moves into SE Canada, its trailing cold front moving to our southeast. High pressure briefly builds over the Midwest and Mid- Atlantic on Mon, bringing dry conditions and highs in the mid- upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through the week inland with occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC. - A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC. - Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Mon night into Tue evening (80-90% PoPs). However, the exact track of the low and amount of cold air in place remains uncertain. The general model consensus is for the high to quickly retreat to Maine/New Brunswick/Nova Scotia by early Tue morning before moving offshore by Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, model guidance continues to show a Miller B type of setup as a weak surface low develops over the Southeast on Mon night before energy transfers to a coastal low that is progged to track from the Carolina coastal plain NNE to the northern Mid-Altantic/Northeast coast from Tue AM- Tue evening. Given the high pressure remaining far north (with respect to climo for snow for the local area), the Miller B nature of the low, and the primary low tracking along the coast (or inland), this will likely not be a snow event. Instead, any cold air would likely be shallow, resulting in predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps are cold enough) or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset if cold air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from the forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the Piedmont late Mon night into early Tue morning before temps warm above freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. NBM probs for 0.01" of freezing rain were 15-20% across the NW Piedmont with negligible probs for 0.1" of freezing rain. Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. While winter weather chances are low, confidence is increasing in widespread rain. EPS probs for >1" of rain were 70-90% across SE VA/NE NC with probs for >2" of rain around 10-20%. The NBM probs for >1" of rain were a bit lower but still 30-50% across SE VA/NE NC. As such, a widespread wetting rain is expected with 0.5-1" across the NW portions of the area and 1"+ possible across SE VA/NE NC. Therefore, WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO on Tue due to the potential for locally heavy rainfall of up to around 2" across SE VA/NE NC. Additionally, there is a chance for some additional precip on Fri (predominantly rain), but confidence is low. Highs are expected to range from around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue, mid-upper 40s Wed, upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Thu, and 40s Fri. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to the upper 30s to around 40F SE Mon night. However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the Tue system, and therefore, temps may be a bit warmer Mon night. Lows in the mid-upper 20s NW to mid 30s SE Tue night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s across far SE VA/NE NC are expected Wed and Thu nights. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Saturday... VFR conditions prevail through tonight with mainly clear skies and dry wx expected. Winds become light/calm this morning inland, with a light NW/NNW wind near the coast. Light and variable winds prevail for the daytime hours today, except a ~5 kt N/NW wind at SBY/ORF/ECG. Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sat night, with increasing clouds. Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight restrictions are possible. Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely. && .MARINE... As of 310 PM EST Friday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight due to elevated W-NW winds. - Benign conditions return Saturday into early Sunday with high pressure, then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday night/Monday behind the next cold front. - A complex system brings degraded marine conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs likely and low-end gales possible. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all marine zones this aftn with W-NW winds averaging 15-25 kt. The pressure gradient will remain compressed over the local area through tonight. In combination with continued cold air advection, elevated winds are expected to persist into tonight and early Saturday morning. SCAs are in effect through 7 PM for the upper rivers, 10 PM for the lower James and Currituck Sound, and 4 AM Sat for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bay-side of the VA Eastern Shore. The high settles near area early Saturday with winds gradually decreasing by sunrise, and becoming, followed by light and variable winds in the afternoon and evening. Winds become southerly late Saturday night and then SW Sunday as a cold front approaches from the W and the high shifts well offshore to our NE. Don`t expect to meet SCA criteria Sunday, but a few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible in the northern coastal waters. A period of SCAs are then likely late Sunday night through Monday morning as northerly winds increase to 20-25 kt behind the front. Seas build to 4-5 ft offshore, with 3-4 ft waves in the Bay. Another cold front and accompanying low pressure system are expected to impact the waters Tuesday. A period of SCAs is likely Tuesday into Wednesday, with some model guidance suggesting some potential for gales later Tuesday/early Wednesday. Local wind probs for frequent >34 kt gusts are fairly low and mainly confined to the Ocean (10-25%. There are some significant timing differences as well, the ECMWF being much slower than the GFS and the exact evolution remains quite uncertain as the low may move directly through the region, complicating the wind direction and speed forecast in addition to timing. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. && $$ |
| #1253073 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1234 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure over the area today will shift offshore tonight into Sunday bringing slightly milder temperatures before a cold front moves through Sunday night. Unsettled weather is then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the area. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday with another disturbance bringing some low rain chances toward Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... One more day of unseasonably cold weather as wedge briefly develops with surface high pressure moving across the north during the day. Again, high temps today will struggle to reach 50F, though northeast winds will be quite light due to influence of the high pressure. Dewpoints will again be in the teens today, with scattered cirrus across the area through the afternoon. High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, allowing return flow to develop. This will help PWATs increase from 0.25" during the day to 0.8" tonight. Will see stratocumulus clouds move onshore tonight in the low-level ESE flow, and could see a few spotty, very light, showers develop due to shallow isentropic light. Lows tonight around freezing, though could see a couple of degrees colder where there are clearer skies and couple degrees warmer where there are more clouds overnight.. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: Low thru Mon; Moderate Mon night *Temps: Near to above normal thru Sun night; Below normal Mon; Near normal Mon night *Confidence: High thru Mon; Moderate to High Mon night Details: Inland high pressure and a trough along the coast will be shifting offshore Sun ahead of a cold front which should move through Sun night followed by another cooler shot of air as high pressure returns from the north. Limited moisture/forcing will keep rain chances/amounts low thru Mon with the best chances likely Sun night. However, rain chances will increase more substantially Mon night as another coastal trough begins developing and moisture/forcing increase ahead of another storm system approaching from the west. Could even see a few thunderstorms toward daybreak Tue, mainly offshore, as the coastal warm front tries to push inland. Rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch are likely by daybreak Tue, with several tenths of an inch possible, especially across inland portions of SC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None, although there is a non-zero risk for a severe storm Tue *Rain Chances: High into Tue night; Very low to None Wed thru Thu night; Low Thu night/Fri *Temps: Near (coast) to below (inland) normal Tue; below normal Tue night thru Fri *Confidence: Moderate thru Tue night; Moderate to High Wed thru Thu; Moderate Thu night/Fri Details: Strengthening low pressure inland Tue will be moving NE thru the day although the exact track is a bit uncertain. This will largely determine how much warmer and slightly more unstable air can move inland which will determine if there is any chance at all of a severe storm. At this point chances still appear very low despite the strong deep layer shear due to the fact that warmer air well offshore will likely be cooled somewhat over the chillier shelf waters closer to the coast. Once the low moves by to the north the trailing cold front will move through later Tue/Tue night bringing colder/drier air back to the area which will remain due to high pressure through at least Thu. May see light rain again as early as late Thu night as moisture begins to stream eastward ahead of another storm system with slightly better chances on Fri, although still some decent uncertainty this period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Scattered cirrus through this afternoon. Stratocu cloud deck around 4-5 kft will move onshore tonight as low level flow turns east-southeasterly. Light winds out of the N-NE prevail throughout TAF period. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR until early next week. Flight restrictions possible the first part of the upcoming week as a coastal trough/warm front lifts north across the area, followed by a cold frontal passage. Widespread showers and isolated tstms are expected with this system. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure wedge inland will maintain northeasterly winds over the local coastal waters during the day today, sustained 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 2-3 ft, combination of wind chop and 1 ft ESE swell. High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, veering the local winds to easterlies tonight while slightly weakening. Seas slightly lower to 2 ft tonight. Could see a few light showers move across the waters tonight. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Northeasterly winds drop below 10 kts and gradually veer to the south throughout the day Sunday ahead of a cold front, with seas holding steady at 1-2 ft. Front moves through Sunday night before stalling offshore of the coastal waters by Monday. Winds veer back to the northeast by Monday, and the pressure gradient quickly increases, with gusts up to 20 kts by the afternoon, and seas up to 2-4 ft. Strong low pressure system ejects out of the Gulf and moves through Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday, veering the winds again to the SSW. Winds and seas easily push into Small Craft Advisory criteria. Depending on the track of the low, the forecast may trend towards gale force gusts, but that remains to be seen. Low exits the area Tuesday night, and winds veer to the NNE and fall to 10-15 kts throughout the day Wednesday. Seas come back down to 2-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253072 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1219 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the weekend. A storm system should bring some impacts to our area late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this evening: Another very quiet night across the forecast area. The surface high centered to the north will gradually shift to the east across the Appalachians. This will turn the low-level flow from northerly to more northeasterly by sunrise. We will also maintain enough gradient to support up to around 10 mph of northeast flow along the coast through the night and closer to 5 mph inland. This combined with a steady stream of cirrus aloft will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, we still anticipate a cold night with lows dipping into the upper 20s inland while staying in the upper 30s or even low 40s along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday and Sunday: Southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail, especially as a trough passes well to our north late Sunday. At the surface, High pressure will prevail through the weekend, shifting well offshore on Sunday. Weak troughing will be offshore on Sunday, followed by a cold front moving through Sunday night. The NBM keeps our area dry on Saturday, then has slight chance POPs just about everywhere late Sunday. No QPF is forecasted during this time period. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal on Saturday, then several degrees above normal on Sunday. Low temperatures will trend higher into Sunday night. Monday: Southwesterly flow will prevail in the mid-levels. A cold front will be offshore in the morning while High pressure is to the northwest. The High will pass to the north during the day, with a storm systems developing over the Lower MS Valley late in the day. Even though moisture will trend higher, the NBM maintains slight chance POPs across portions of our area with no QPF. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A storm system will cross through our area on Tuesday. POPs quickly rise Monday night, peaking in the categorical range on Tuesday. It`s still too early to determine exact rainfall amounts, but significant flooding rains are not in the forecast. High temperatures will be near normal on Tuesday. High pressure and drier conditions returns Tuesday night and last through Thursday. High temperatures will be below normal during this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are low probabilities of flight restrictions Sunday and Monday. A storm system will bring higher probabilities of flight restrictions late Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure centered across the Ohio River Valley will slide east across the Mid-Atlantic states, leading to a weaker pressure and diminishing northerly wind during the day. In general, wind speeds will range between 10-15 kt. Seas will also subside about a foot, generally to 1-3 ft across local waters, although a few 4 ft seas could linger on near 60 nm off the Georgia coast. Overnight, winds should slightly veer to north-northeast and gradually increase to 15-20 kt early morning, in response to the pressure gradient tightening across local waters. Seas should also build up to 2-4 ft prior to daybreak Saturday. Extended Marine: High pressure will prevail through the weekend, bringing elevated winds and seas. But no marine headlines are expected. A storm system should bring some impacts to the coastal waters starting Monday and lasting into Tuesday. Winds and seas will increase, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of our waters on Tuesday. High pressure then returns on Wednesday, with conditions improving. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253071 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1222 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered light snow showers possible through the evening with little accumulation (if any). Gusty winds continue overnight, although not as strong as during the day today. Still on the cold side for Saturday, but not as windy compared to Friday. Low pressure passes to our north and west Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain with it. Cooling down again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible storminess around Tuesday and/or into Wednesday which could bring wintry weather or rain to Southern New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Scattered light snow showers possible through early evening. Impacts to travel are minor to none. * Gusty westerly winds continue tonight, although not as strong as daytime Friday. Radar data continue to show lake effect snow bands diminishing across southern New England with the loss of daytime heating. Expecting this trend to continue as an inversion lowers and closes the window for the majority of the lake effect snow bands to make it east of the Berkshires. It will take a little more time for that to happen though. Until then, still the possibility of light snowfall, mainly across the grassy surfaces, this evening. Previous Discussion... Radar this afternoon shows scattered light snow showers across southern New England. This activity is expected to continue late this afternoon and into the early evening before dissipating. No impacts to travel are expected. The highest chance of seeing any trace to very light accumulation will be for the high terrain spots along the interior, but should be limited to grassy or elevated surfaces. Winds will likely remain fairly gusty this evening and tonight as a tightened pressure gradient continues across the region. Although the peak gusts will be likely behind us, gusts 20-30 mph are likely in the evening with some gusts up to 30-40 mph still possible for the isolated higher terrain spots and Cape/Islands. Winds will gradually trend downward overnight as the pressure gradient slowly weakens as low pressure moves further east and surface high pressure works in from the southwest. It will be a chilly night overall, but elevated winds overnight should keep temperatures from tanking as much as they could given the mainly clear skies. Lows should drop into the low to mid 20s for the interior and upper 20s to low 30s closer to the coast. With the added wind factor this will bring wind chills into the teens to 20s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Gusty winds gradually decrease through the day. Brief mid-level ridging expected on Saturday with flow turning toward the NW. Surface high pressure will continue to build in from the south through the day. This will continue to support the downward trend in wind magnitude over the course of the day. It will start on the breezier side with model soundings showing sufficient mixing in the boundary layer. Although winds will be weaker than Friday with gusts 20-30 mph. It will be another cooler day with slightly below normal 850mb temperature anomaly over the region still. This will yield high temperatures in the low to mid 30s for the high terrain and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Breezy conditions will make temperatures feel closer to upper 20s/low 30s at times. Winds will weaken further into Saturday evening/night. Clouds gradually increase through the overnight ahead of the next weather system. Despite increasing clouds, it will still be a chilly night with lows dropping into 20s for most places and low 30s for the immediate coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Low pressure brings rain later Sunday into Sunday night; drying out Monday to go along with cooler temperatures. * An interior-SNE wintry weather and coastal-plain rain or wet snow-to-rain event remains on the table Tue into early on Wed. Confidence remains low on the details. Best chance for accumulations of snow and possible impacts is in interior Southern New England. * Drying out for Wed through Fri with below normal temperatures favored. Details: Increasing clouds early on Sunday with warm-frontal / isentropically-forced rains breaking out Sun aftn into the evening. This occurs as a rather progressive area of low pressure tracks from southern Ontario ENE along the US/Canada international border. Cloudy but generally dry conditions prevail during the Sunday morning hours, with rain breaking out by Sun aftn. Precip type should be largely as a plain rain but could mix over to wet snowflakes as the storm system exits into early Mon morning. Rain amts around a quarter- inch or less in all areas, ending as back-end snowflakes with nil accum in the higher terrain Sun night. Focus for the long-term portion of the forecast continues to be a potential storm system centered around Tue into Tue night. This occurs as an open-wave/progressive mid-level shortwave disturbance and its sfc cyclone moves ENE from the southern Plains to near or south of Southern New England/adjacent waters. There remain uncertainties in the system`s track, in which there are differences which have unfortunately grown today between the northernmost GFS (a track inside of 40N/70W) with the more offshore ECMWF (a track outside of 40N/70W), with today`s Canadian splitting the difference over 40N/70W. Ensemble means and AI guidance support their parent modeling systems. An interior/higher-elevation mainly snow with lower- elevation/coastal plain wet, gloppy snow-to-rain scenario remains a best guess as to precipitation types; but if a warmer, more northern solution like the GFS bears itself out then we could introduce some wintry mixture into the equation. There is also the local nuances inherent to early-season wintry events, in which accumulations are dependent on time-of-day (can be too warm to accumulate on pavement during the day) and the influence mild water temps around 50 degrees would have near the coastal plain given the expectation of sustained onshore flow. The wetter, moisture-laden nature of the system combined with some of the above factors would favor positive-snow-depth-change snow accumulation methodologies vs simple 10:1 snowfall accumulations. For now, there are too many uncertainties as alluded to advertise specific snowfall or rain amounts as of yet, with optimism that some of these details will avail themselves over the coming days. Taking a probabilistic approach for now..,in the area where rain may predominate, NBM-based 24-hour probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow are in the low to nil level (less than 30%) for the coastal plain and most of eastern MA, central CT and much of RI excluding the northwestern hills. For interior Southern New England, 24-hr NBM probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow are in the moderate to high (40-60%) range, and are low to moderate (25-40%) for 4 or more inches. Thus potential for somewhat greater impacts over interior Southern New England where colder air may be more entrenched and lesser as one moves closer to I-95. Drying out in the wake of the Tue system for Wed, with another dump of colder than normal temperatures as we move toward late in the upcoming workweek, in what could be the coldest air yet seen to this point in the early-winter 2025-2026. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...High Confidence. VFR. Winds gradually diminish overnight, but remain gusty. W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts, decreasing further after 06Z. Today and Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. W wind becoming more NW. Winds 8-12 kts gusting to 20-25 kts. Winds diminish Saturday night. Sunday...High Confidence. VFR to start, cigs decreasing to MVFR/IFR in -RA. Light SE winds increase becoming S 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. RA likely, chance SN. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely, chance SN. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday... High confidence. * Gale Warning through early Saturday across all waters. Winds and seas slowly decrease overnight into early Saturday. The bays and harbors will be solidly below Gale criteria this evening and by early Saturday morning the remaining marine zones will be also. These will be likely replaced with SCAs once the Gale Warning expires. Seas 6-10 ft for the southern outer waters tonight, decreasing Saturday morning. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. && $$ |
| #1253070 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning, and possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as well. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 An upper trof advances across the Plains then ejects off across the northeast states through Sunday night. An associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. Instability continues to look limited ahead of the frontal passage and am not expecting strong storm development. Dry conditions on Saturday will be followed by slight chance to likely pops on Sunday (highest pops over northwest portion). Rain chances taper to dry conditions Sunday night. A large positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves over the central and western CONUS, then takes on a meridional orientation and also deamplifies while progressing across the eastern states mainly on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then zips off across the forecast area Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Depending on the ultimate trajectory of the surface low, it`s possible that MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg could be realized late Monday night into early Tuesday morning over the coastal counties, tapering to much lower values further inland. Plenty of favorable shear may also be in place, but considering uncertainty with the trajectory of the surface low, will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Monday and categorical pops for Monday night then tapering to dry conditions on Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday while another upper trof swings into the western states. There is a lot of uncertainty with the eventual movement of the upper trof which could translate into the central CONUS through Friday, or even make it into the eastern states. Either way, a series of shortwaves look set to move across the forecast area on Thursday which will support slight chance to chance pops, then have gone with good chance pops for Friday as the pattern should support scattered coverage regardless of what transpires. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 60s then Sunday ranges from around 60 well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. Highs trend cooler through Wednesday to range from the lower/mid 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs moderate a bit by Friday to range from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Lows Saturday night range from the lower 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast, then lows Sunday night range from around 40 well inland to the lower 50s at the coast. Lows moderate Monday night then Tuesday night will be cool and range from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s near the coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer by Thursday night to range from around 40 well inland to near 50 at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, then a high risk follows for Monday night and Tuesday. A low rip current risk is expected by Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. Winds will be calm or light and variable winds over interior areas overnight, with a northeasterly flow around 5 knots closer to the coast. A southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots develops on Saturday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish on Saturday and become southeasterly. Have continued with a Small Craft Advisory until 15Z Saturday for the open Gulf waters and will mention small craft should exercise caution tonight mainly for southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. An offshore flow develops on Sunday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong Sunday night then becomes easterly on Monday. An onshore flow develops Monday evening then switches to the northwest Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters late Monday night through early Tuesday evening. /29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% on Saturday over interior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and a small portion of the interior western Florida panhandle. 20 ft wind speeds will remain below critical levels (around 10 mph), and the Significant Fire Potential will be low so will just monitor at this point. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 39 64 51 70 / 0 0 10 30 Pensacola 45 63 56 71 / 0 0 10 20 Destin 44 64 56 71 / 0 0 10 20 Evergreen 32 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 30 Waynesboro 34 60 45 60 / 0 0 30 60 Camden 32 59 43 60 / 0 0 10 50 Crestview 33 63 46 73 / 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1253068 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1208 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions continue through late Saturday night in the Gulf and early Sunday morning in the Atlantic. - A high rip current risk continues this weekend for the Atlantic beaches, along with dangerous surf conditions. - Gradual warmup expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 High pressure over the TN valley early this morning will shift east towards the Mid Atlantic region today and eventually move off the coast by this evening. This will result in our low level winds becoming more ENE today and Sunday. With a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, breezy conditions will continue today with afternoon gusts of 25-30 mph expected. The gradient will relax for Sunday with gusts of only 15-20 mph expected. 00Z MFL sounding showed PWAT value of 0.90 inches and a lot of dry air above 800 mb. PWAT values will start to increase today, with values of 1.2-1.4 inches over the far southern peninsula by late in the day, with 1.0- 1.2 inches closer to the lake region. With the increase in low level moisture, some widely scattered showers are possible this afternoon into early evening, mainly along and south of Alligator Alley. Widely scattered showers possible again on Sunday, with chances along the coast and over the far southern portion of the peninsula. Temperatures will be on a moderating trend with highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps tonight will be in the low to mid 60s around the lake and SW FL, to upper 60s and low 70s across the east coast metro. Sundays high temps will be in the low to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 A frontal boundary across northern FL early in the work week will keep much of the rainfall chances to our north, so it`ll be mainly dry across South FL outside of some occasional coastal showers. The next cold front will cross the area mid week and settle across the FL Straits late in the week. Little to no moisture will be associated with this frontal passage, however it will provide a bit of relief with temps and humidity dropping back to seasonal norms. Highs early in the week will be in the low to middle 80s, and low temps will be in the 60s/70s. After the frontal passage, highs the rest of the week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and low temps will be in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. NNE winds becoming NE later this morning with gusts to 25 kts from late morning through the early evening. A few showers are possible later today at MIA and TMB, with lower chances elsewhere. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Hazardous winds and seas continue today for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. NNE winds 20-25 kts expected through late tonight for the Gulf waters and into early Sunday morning for the Atlantic waters. Seas 3-6 ft in the Gulf and 6-10 ft in the Atlantic. Conditions improve on Sunday, however cautionary easterly winds will remain in the Atlantic into early this upcoming week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Strong easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents this weekend for the Atlantic beaches. An elevated risk will remain into early this upcoming week. With the strong easterly flow this weekend, waves of 6-8 ft in the surf zone are possible along portions of the Atlantic beaches this morning through Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 71 82 71 / 30 20 10 10 West Kendall 78 69 83 68 / 30 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 79 70 83 71 / 30 20 10 10 Homestead 78 71 82 71 / 40 30 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 77 70 81 71 / 30 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 77 71 81 71 / 30 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 79 70 83 71 / 30 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 77 69 81 70 / 20 20 20 10 Boca Raton 78 70 82 71 / 20 20 20 10 Naples 82 65 85 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1253066 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 * Breezy southeasterly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts to continue through Saturday. * A brief warm spike takes place on Saturday with highs in the 80s. * Big changes to the weather pattern as a strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday will bring a notably cooler airmass (potentially the coldest since last February) to the region Sunday through early next week. * Adverse to dangerous surf and boating conditions are expected to persist through at least Sunday in response to an enhanced pressure gradient and a strong cold front. * Rain chances increase inland Saturday night through Monday and again Wednesday night through Thursday night. Greatest chances Sunday through Sunday night. Rain chances nearly everyday through next week for the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A strong early season cold front that promises to bring the coldest airmass yet of the season (coldest since last February) and an unsettled weather pattern will be the main highlights through the forecast period. The latest satellite and radar data depicts scattered to overcast sky coverage with some light streamer showers driven by breezy southerly gradient winds and a weak shortwave over the Sierra Madre. Through tonight, expect for light streamer showers to continue across parts of the area with the best chance of showers occurring closer to the coast. Warm air advection (WAA) regime will continue on Saturday and will result in warm spike, albeit brief. Breezy southerly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts will aide in daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. However, during the day on Saturday, a strong south-southeastward advancing cold front will be sweeping its way through the state of Texas. This cold front will be associated with a highly amplified and active large- scale pattern featuring a mild West U.S. vs a Cold and wintry Central and East U.S. in which forecast models have been advertising for the past several days. While this will bring plenty of wintry weather across the northern tier states, this cold front will bring markedly cooler temperatures to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late this weekend into the early parts of next week. There still remains some discrepancies amongst forecast guidances on the precise timing and strength of the cold fropa, which would impact high temps on Sunday and potentially beyond. Typically, these cold shallow airmasses tend to be stronger and have a faster timing than than what most global forecast models suggest. The hi-res, CAM North America Model (NAM) captures these trends better. That said, it still appears that sometime Saturday night into Sunday, this strong cold front with Arctic origins will sweep through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. In it`s wake will be the coldest airmass of the season seen so far (since last February). High temperatures on Sunday will likely be reached early in the day as temperatures are expected to fall through the day. High temperatures from Saturday to Sunday will be 10-15 F degrees cooler, however closer to seasonable norms with values on Sunday in the low to mid 70s and 60s over Brush Country. Clearing skies amid additional cold and dry air advection will result in a noticeably chilly Sunday night as overnight low temperatures are expected to plunge into the 40s most places, some 15F degrees or so cooler than Saturday night, and some 10F degrees cooler than normal. A full cold and dry air advection regime will be in place by Monday. This combined with a modified 1020-1025 mb sfc Arctic high pressure system over the region will result in continued cooler than normal temperatures with high temperatures failing to make it out of the 50s on Monday and 60s on Tuesday. Clear skies and additional radiational cooling will result in overnight low temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights holding in the 40s most places (50s along the RGV and immediate coast), which again will be well below normal levels. In addition to the cooler changes, the pattern will become unsettled. Rain showers (some perhaps stratiform type) are possible Saturday night through Monday in response and connection to the cold frontal boundary. Currently, we still have low to medium (20-60%) PoPs over Deep South Texas during this time period with the best chances being near the coast. Sunday-Sunday night is where we expect the most widespread coverage. We`ve maintained categorical PoPs along and east of IH-69C Sunday-Sunday night. Even greater chances will take place over the open Gulf Waters during this same time period. Rain showers are also possible over the Gulf Waters Friday night and Saturday in connection to the aforementioned warm front and again Monday night of next week. Another bout of unsettled weather is expected to develop over the forecast area as a nearby shortwave trough/developing low pressure system will increase the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday night. Currently, we have low to medium (20-50%) chances across Deep South Texas with the higher chances located near the coast. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the week, however, the combination of rain chances and increased cloud coverage will limit warming potential. That said, high temperatures by Wednesday are progged to reach the 70s across much of Deep South Texas. Highs mainly in the 70s are then expected to persist through next Saturday. Overnight lows Wednesday through Saturday night will mainly be in the 50s. Given the explanation above about model biases and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have decided to use a blend of the NBM 25th percentile and NAM12 Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Through 06z Sunday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. VCSH will be around tonight (decreasing in coverage with most confined close to the coast). Cloud coverage is expected to improve towards the end of the forecast period. Winds will remain breezy out of the southeast with speeds between 10- 20 kts and gusts as high as 30 kts or so through much of the forecast period. Saturday evening, winds are expected to wane. && .MARINE... Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters through Saturday evening due to continued breezy southeasterly winds. A second, stronger cold front will sweep through the region Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in continued adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist and a Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory may be needed through at least Sunday. Marine conditions could improve by Tuesday night with low to moderate winds and seas prevailing through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 71 83 67 / 30 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 78 66 85 61 / 20 0 10 20 MCALLEN 78 69 87 63 / 30 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 66 87 58 / 30 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 73 80 71 / 20 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 68 83 64 / 20 10 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
