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#1257097 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
529 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- After today, minimal rain chances until next week

- Elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon behind cold
front

- Wind chill values in the 30s Thursday and Friday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light rain and virga earlier this morning over South Texas continues
to linger in eastern areas early this afternoon. I do expect most if
not all of this light rain to come to stop by late this afternoon,
with mostly cloudy conditions and light offshore winds limiting
highs in the mid 60s. Drier air and mostly clear skies tonight will
allow for morning lows to drop into the low-mid 40s and highs to
climb into the 70s Wednesday before our next cold front pushes
through in the afternoon.

Relative humidity values dropping to 20-30% with northerly wind
gusts of 20-25 mph and above normal Energy Release Component (ERC)
values Wednesday afternoon, will likely result in elevated fire
weather conditions across the Brush Country and portions of the
inland Coastal Plains. Onshore flow returns briefly Thursday night
through Friday, before another cold front moves into South Texas
Friday night into Saturday morning. Low confidence on the southern
extent of the front, with both ECENS/GEFS showing the front stalling
west to east across the CWA while the CMC has the front plow
through. Temperatures and any rain chances will be heavily dependent
on the location of the front, don`t expect great rain chances with
PWAT values just near or slightly below normal.

Models are in good agreement with onshore flow and southerly flow
aloft returning early next week ahead of a front, bringing PWAT
values to the 90-99th percentile and rain chances Monday into
Tuesday. Model discrepancies become more apparent with this front
and the mid-level low/trough developing off of northeast Canada.
Highs into early next week will range from the 60s to 70s and lows
in the 40s through the rest of this week, warming into the 50s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period even as a dry cold front
moves through the region Wednesday afternoon. Winds overnight will
be light and variable. Then as the front approaches then moves
through the area, winds with a westerly component will shift from
the north and gust up to around 20-25 knots tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Rain chances are virtually zero with this
frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze will continue through
Wednesday morning. Winds will increase to fresh to strong and
shift northerly (BF 5-6) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning as another cold front moves across the waters, leading to
Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will diminish to gentle to
moderate (BF 3-4) Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A gentle
to moderate (BF 3-4) southerly breeze returns Friday before
another cold front stalls across the area this upcoming weekend,
shifting winds out of the northeast and occasionally fresh (BF-5).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A cold front will usher in drier air (minimum relative humidity
values less than 30%) Wednesday afternoon and continue each
afternoon through the end of the week which, when combined with
above normal ERC values, could lead to elevated fire weather
conditions through the end of the work week. Elevated fire weather
conditions are most likely Wednesday afternoon with northerly wind
gusts of 20-25 mph. Following, light winds will limit our fire
weather threat and keep us well below thresholds for critical fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 46 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 43 73 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
Laredo 45 75 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 44 77 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 51 73 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 43 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 44 76 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 53 73 50 62 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
for GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

#1257096 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
631 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast have been made. The main
focus will be the arctic air moving in Thursday and beyond.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

2) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday
morning and again Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

A lifting shortwave will move through the area on Wednesday in
advance of a cold front on Thursday. Moisture above 700 mb is
more than sufficient for precip, but dry air in the low levels
will likely impact rain rates and QPF. Light rain will likely be
focused along the coast where isentropic lift is maximized.
Unlikely to see more than a few hundreths of rainfall through
12Z Thursday. Evaporative cooling should keep temperatures in
the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving
through Thursday morning and again Saturday night will bring
well below normal temperatures to the area.

No measurable precipitation is expected through the period.
Cold arctic air will move in behind the first of basically two
fronts Thursday and again this weekend. The coldest lows will
occur Friday and again Sunday mornings when upper teens to lower
20s are expected. Apparent temperatures will be well into the
teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR tonight through midday Wednesday with increasing high
clouds. An isolated shower is possible at midday through mid-
afternoon at inland terminals and mid afternoon through evening
for coastal terminals. Potential for brief MVFR if a shower
moves over a location, best chances would be along the coast,
but duration of any restirction will be brief.

Extended Forecast...Restrictions possible before midnight
Wednesday night, best chance along the coast. VFR returns
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Winds turn southwesterly this afternoon and
this evening, increasing overnight. West to southwest winds on
Wednesday will precede a shortwave moving northeastward through the
afternoon. With clouds increasing late tonight and early Wednesday,
precipitation over the nearshore waters could begin as early as mid
morning.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Strong small craft advisory
conditions are expected Thursday and again this weekend via
strong cold air advection behind a couple of arctic cold fronts.
With the offshore flow being primarily offshore significant
seas will be somewhat limited considering the wind
speeds...mainly 2-4 feet. Some isolated five footers are always
fair game outer waters with the strongest of gusts.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257095 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
519 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one
on Wednesday and another Friday.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third possible cold front
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A weak upper level low over central Texas this afternoon will
continue eastward tonight, merging with a broader trough digging
across much of the Central/Eastern Conus. We`ve already seen
widespread light showers across the region on radar, indicating that
PWs of 0.75-1.00 inches have been sufficient with the amount of lift
provided by the low. Shower coverage is expected to peak this
afternoon (right around now) as we get the full forcing from the
passing upper level low. Activity then tapers off from west to east
into overnight into Wednesday as the low exists the area. Anticipate
another cold evening with lows for Wednesday morning in the
40s/lower 50s.

Wednesday kicks off with the aforementioned upper level low, now
shortwave, east of the area, now embedded within the much stronger
mid/upper trough spanning the Central/Eastern CONUS. This larger
upper level feature is anticipated to push a weaker reinforcing
front through SE Texas on Wednesday. Winds may briefly shift W/WSW
early in the morning due to a prefrontal trough moving in from the
north. The reinforcing front should lag behind it, entering the
Brazos Valley during the late morning, then moving off the coast
during the late afternoon. PWs will be fairly low, generally under
0.75", thus showers will be extremely sparse if any form to begin
with. Breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures should settle
in behind the front. Daytime highs may top out in the 60s/lower 70s,
but anticipate much cooler temps overnight with lows for Thursday
morning in the 30s/40s. A light freeze could occur in many spots
across the Piney Woods area near Crockett.

Thursday won`t be a particularly active day as we find ourself post-
cold front. Surface high pressure should pass over the region during
the daytime with breezy northerly winds early in the day becoming
light and variable, then later shifting southeasterly in the
evening. Daytime highs will be fairly cool as onshore flow is
(tentatively) set to occur after peak heating, with highs topping
out in the 50s. After onshore flow is resumes, we`ll see moisture
slowly return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of
cooling overnight. Lows for Friday morning will should be slightly
warmer, though still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with
some lower 50s along the coast.

Friday should see another mid/upper level trough dig through the
Northern Mississippi River Valley/Great Lakes. This trough should
send another cold front towards SE Texas, which should push into the
Brazos Valley during the late afternoon and later off the coast some
time around midnight. PWs by this point are forecasted to be around
0.5" or less. Rain chances will be very low with this frontal
passage too, but there is still a chance that some light showers
could develop along the coast as moisture pools. Highs during the
daytime should top out in the 60s/lower 70s. Breezy and cooler air
filters in overnight into the early morning hours with lows for
Saturday morning ranging from the 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at
the coast. Could see lows touch the freezing mark across the
northern edge of our CWA.

Saturday on the whole should feature benign, post-frontal weather as
high pressure fills in over the region, causing winds to relax and
shift northeasterly. Highs should reach the 50s/60s during the
daytime. Clear skies aloft from high pressure and with northerly
flow still in place, we should see some of the coolest temperatures
overnight into Sunday morning with lows in the 30s/lower 40s inland
and mid/upper 40s along the coast.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return
during the afternoon. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually
warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs
for Sunday should reach the upper 50s/60s during the daytime.
Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with
lowers for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the upper
30s/lower 50s.

Forecast certainty decrease heading into next week, but signs
suggest that we`ll see at least one more afternoon of warmer weather
on Monday. Highs are anticipated to reach the the 60s/lower 70s
during the daytime, with some isolated showers/storm chances
possible during the daytime as PWs climb above 1.0 inch. Long range
models suggest that another mid/upper level trough may dig across
the Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Monday, sending
another cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still up in the air, but
anticipate the FROPA to occur some time Monday afternoon/evening or
early Tuesday Morning.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Widely scattered light shra will end this evening, yielding to a
mostly cloudy VFR deck through the night. Couldn`t rule out
localized MVFR cigs by morning. Skies are expected to clear
tomorrow while winds increase from the north the wake of a cold
front. North winds sustained to around 15 knots with gusts over 20
knots are expected by late morning and early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels through the
week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern
half of the the bays. Another cold front will push off the coast
Wednesday afternoon, prompting Small Craft Advisories across all
bays and waters. Low Water Advisories may be needed overnight into
Thursday morning as water levels approach -1.0ft MLLW. High pressure
passes over the area Thursday, causing winds and seas to decrease
and shift southeasterly. Another cold front is slated to push off
the coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing
moderate northeasterly winds in it`s wake.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 44 67 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 47 69 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 68 44 57 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

#1257094 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
530 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- There is a low (15-30%) chance of intermittent light rain or
drizzle late this afternoon into the early nighttime hours
tonight.

- A cold front is expected to pass through the region Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night.

- A Small Craft Advisory is likely for the Lower Texas coastal
waters Wednesday night into Thursday as strong northerly winds
behind the front leads to adverse marine conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A mid-level trough moves eastward over central Texas today,
passing north of our region, with slight upper level divergence
and a weak jet aloft continuing into tonight, generating a low
(15-30%) chance of rain from a line of isolated to scattered
light showers or drizzle, moving east from the Northern Ranchlands
and Mid/Upper RGV this afternoon and exiting the Lower RGV
tonight. Ahead of the line, light northerly winds shift to
southwesterly as the line exits, becoming light westerly by
Wednesday morning and northerly by the evening hours, influenced
by lower level winds shifting ahead of a ridge and cold front
diving into the Southern Plains. The cold front passes through
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night, leading to breezy conditions near and along the
immediate Lower Texas Gulf coast, with northerly winds of around
20-25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Thursday into Friday, winds
subside and become southerly by Friday as a surface high pressure
shifts east from the Southern Plains to the northeastern Gulf.
Another ridge flies southeastward over the Plains on Friday,
sending another cold front, possibly late Friday night into
Saturday, shifting winds out of the northeast through Saturday and
gradually becoming southeasterly by Monday. As moisture rebuilds
into the region next week, there could be an increase in PoPs to
a low (15-30%) chance of rain along the coast Monday, expanding
inland into Tuesday.

Near to slightly below average temperatures today (highs in the 60s)
and tonight (lows in the 40s/50s) become above average on Wednesday
as skies begin to clear and downsloping westerly winds raise highs
into mostly the 70s to near 80 F. Temperatures falling back to
the 40s/50s overnight Wednesday as skies become mainly clear
behind the front, allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Cold
air advection via northerly to northeasterly winds cool
temperatures back to the 60s on Thursday before 70s return on
Friday with morning lows in the 40s/50s continuing into the
weekend.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Through 00z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 00z TAF period.

Through this evening/tonight, winds will be light and variable to
calm if not out of the north with speeds up to 5 kts. During the day
on Wednesday, winds will be out of the north with speeds between 5-
10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Gentle northerly winds become light westerly winds by Wednesday
morning along with slight (1-2 feet) seas along with a low
(15-20%) chance of patchy light rain or drizzle. Winds turn
northwesterly, enhancing to moderate to fresh late Wednesday
morning into the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is likely
Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front passes through the
Lower Texas coastal waters, bringing strong northerly winds and
moderate (6-8 feet) seas, followed by improving conditions
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Winds become southerly
along with slight (1-2 feet), possibly by Friday morning, with
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continuing through the
weekend with a potential weak cold front Friday night or Saturday
as well as building chances of rain next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 53 78 52 68 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 48 78 46 70 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 51 80 49 71 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 44 78 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 74 58 65 / 20 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 78 52 66 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

#1257093 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
623 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 620 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Tonight, a couple degrees warmer with isolated to widely
scattered showers developing, perhaps an isolated lightning
storm south of Melbourne, as moisture increases.

- Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
bringing a brief increase in rain chances.

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning
lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially Friday
morning and next Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Florida remains under weak surface high
pressure between a stationary front draped across the Florida
Straits to our south and a deep low pressure system tracking
across the eastern US to our north. Moisture in proximity of the
stationary front extending into Central Florida and a weak surface
trough lingering right along/off the Atlantic coast are producing
lots of cloud cover, and even a few light sprinkles this
afternoon. Through the rest of the evening and overnight, the
trough and front are forecast to gradually consolidate into a weak
surface low that will begin to lift north-northeastward, dragging
higher moisture over the area. Very low (20% or less) rain
chances this afternoon gradually increase northward, topping out
at 20-30% inland late tonight/early Wednesday morning, before
shifting offshore as drier air starts to get wrapped behind a
developing weak cool front. Can`t rule out a lightning storm
across the Treasure Coast counties and maybe southern Brevard.
Afternoon highs up a bit but still in the U60s-M70s. Overnight
lows up to he L50s-M60s.

Wednesday-Thursday...The weak surface low will continue to lift
northeastward, pulling the attendant NNE-SSW oriented cool front
draped across the southeast Florida peninsula in the morning
offshore by the afternoon. Cool air advection in westerly flow
behind this boundary subtly brings temperatures down a bit across
most of the area, with Wednesday afternoon highs in the M60-L70s
for all but the Treasure Coast counties who remain in the M-U70s.
The low early morning rain chances (20-30%) push offshore as the
drier and cooler air filters in. There is a low (around 20%)
chance for a lightning storm to develop over the Treasure Coast
counties, and the nearby Atlantic waters. Some gusty conditions
possible Wednesday afternoon with 10-15 mph winds.

A slug of very chilly air by way of a pair of cold fronts then
pushes into Florida, with the first front arriving Wednesday
night, followed by the stronger reinforcing front arriving
Thursday morning. Some moisture recovery is expected in proximity
of the first front (PWATs down to below 1" in places Wednesday
afternoon increasing to 1.25-1.35" overnight), which combined
with ample forcing will support areawide 40-60% rain chances
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. However, instability for
deep convection is virtually non-existent (MUCAPE only 200 J/kg at
best across the southern counties), and as a result lightning
storms aren`t expected. There is still some degree of uncertainty
when and how much rain locations will receive. General CAMs
consensus and HREF has rounds of showers pushing through between 7
PM Wednesday and 9 AM Thursday, but could see showers get started
as early as 4 PM pretty much anywhere, and linger into the late
morning across the southern counties. QPF also runs the gambit.
HREF 24-hour max falls short of half an inch, which is inline with
a very dry GFS at around 0.10" in the operational and 0.10-0.25"
90th percentile in the ensemble. The ECM is a little more
optimistic at 0.20-0.40" in the operational and up to around 0.60"
90th percentile in a band across the northernmost counties in the
ensemble. Overall the rainfall assessment looks to be most places
will get 0.10" or less, while a few lucky spots receive up to
around 0.50".

Temperatures drop a bit Wednesday night, back down into the
U40s-U50s, then plunge Thursday between the arrival of the second
front and cloudy skies. Afternoon highs forecast to remain chilly
in the U50s north of I-4, struggle to make it to the 60s along the
corridor, and only reach the 60s to the south. Breezy
northwesterly winds (approaching 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph)
will add some bite to the cool Thursday temperatures.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday
morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not
changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the prospect of
temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in
addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south as
Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest
breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a
majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will be
needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds decrease
through the day Friday into early Saturday as high pressure
builds over the peninsula behind the fronts. Despite plenty of sun
Friday afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of
the 50s from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s
south). Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for
another cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight,
there is a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over
portions of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback,
climbing into the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this
front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures
swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the
30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing
temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the
front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with
values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Generally favorable ableit a bit rainy
boating conditions nearshore forecast through the day Wednesday.
A weak low pressure system developing from a surface trough near
the Atlantic coast and a stationary front draped over Florida
Straits lifts into portions of the peninsula and local Atlantic
waters tonight, then pushes well offshore by Wednesday evening.
Winds will be shifty at 5-10 kts until the system departs,
becoming westerly 10-15 kts nearshore and 15-20 kts (briefly over
20 kts in the afternoon) offshore Wednesday. Small craft should
exercise caution offshore Wednesday. Rain chances 20% or less this
afternoon gradually increase to 20-30% early Wednesday morning as
higher moisture lifts into the area with this system, then
decrease through the rest of the morning and afternoon as it
departs. An isolated lightning storm mainly across the southern
waters and coast can`t be ruled out. Seas 2-4 ft.

Wednesday Night-Saturday...Boating conditions deteriorate
Wednesday night and Thursday as a pair of strong cold fronts
quickly push through Florida and the local Atlantic waters.
Westerly winds 10-20 kts early Wednesday night shift northwesterly
and increase to 15-25 kts by Thursday morning, then further
increase to 20-30 kts Thursday evening, before settling down to
10-15 kts from the north by Friday morning. Seas build to 3-5 ft
across the waters by Thursday morning, then jump to 7-10 ft
offshore, possibly higher in the Gulf Stream Thursday night. Seas
subdued closer to shore by the offshore wind component, but still
building to 4-7 ft. Seas subside through Friday, settling to 2-5
ft Friday night. Boating conditions briefly more favorable
Saturday before another cold front. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated lightning storms possible Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon, then dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 622 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Continued VFR CIGs generally 045-060 AGL for much of the period
with ocnl breaks. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop MCO northward
aft 08Z through 14Z-16Z then VFR conds return, again. Winds
becoming light/variable this evening. Increasing WRLY winds on Wed
up to around 15 kts, with frequent higher gusts, esp along the
coast. Crosswind issues may be encountered Wed at MCO. Surging
moisture overnight into Wed, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT (low confidence)
convective chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 54 66 49 60 / 30 30 50 40
MCO 58 69 53 60 / 30 20 60 40
MLB 60 72 53 65 / 30 30 50 50
VRB 61 74 53 67 / 30 30 40 60
LEE 55 67 50 59 / 20 20 60 30
SFB 56 68 51 60 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 58 68 52 60 / 30 20 60 40
FPR 61 75 53 68 / 30 30 40 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257092 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
551 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The model trends continue to agree on a more
progressive (faster) and drier solution for the late week system. No
accumulation to trace amounts of winter precipitation is expected
Thursday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry and mild through Wednesday with a light breeze.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night,
and passes by N of the area on Thurs. Some light precipitation is
possible late Wed, potentially ending as a brief period of non-
accumulating to trace light snow Thurs morning.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and mild through Wednesday with a
light breeze.

Strong surface high pressure (~1028 mb) to the south and southwest
dominates the local weather today with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures generally in the mid 50s as of the time of writing.
Temperatures have begun overachieving slightly as SSW winds allow a
warmer airmass over the area. High temperatures will likely be a few
degrees above current obs in the upper 50s to near 60F in the SE
VA/NE NC. Despite remaining mostly clear tonight, temperatures will
be more mild than last night with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Mid
to high clouds will increase Wednesday ahead of the next cold front,
but SSW flow will remain, keeping temperatures mild with highs in
the mid to upper 50s (lower 50s for the Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night,
and passes by N of the area on Thurs. Some light precipitation is
possible late Wed, potentially ending as a brief period of non-
accumulating to trace light snow Thurs morning.

The 12z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for
the mid to late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic late
Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream shortwave
traverses the Gulf coast. Models continue to agree that our area
will be sandwiched between the two streams in the moisture deprived
region. QPF totals remain very low with just a few hundredths of an
inch as most moisture gets hung up on the Appalachian mountains or
pulled towards the southern stream, resulting in the colder air
chasing the moisture which this pattern rarely results in tangible
snowfall. A few light showers are possible with the cold front Wed
afternoon/evening. With this, any snow on the tail end of the precip
Thurs morning will only produce up to a trace amount. Will note, the
12z/HRRR depicts cooler air moving in faster, which would allow for
more accumulating snowfall, but this type of system continuously
brings the colder air slower (which was observed with the last
system), so there`s very low confidence in the HRRR at this
point.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Behind the strong Arctic cold front Wed/Thurs, strong CAA will bring
below average temperatures and breezy/windy conditions. Highs Thurs
and Fri will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures will be
the coldest Thursday night in the mid teens, additionally with near
single digit wind chills. Will need to monitor this for any
potential Cold Weather Advisories.

The next pair of cold fronts will cross the local area Sat/Sun as an
upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS. These fronts once
again look to carry little moisture to the area as they
progressively moves towards the East Coast, unable to tap into any
southern stream moisture. Models have trended slightly drier with
now only slight PoPs (15-20%) during the day Sat and again on Sun.
Another round of cold temperatures behind the fronts will bring
below average temperatures with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 550 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the 00z/14
TAF period. Mainly clear skies are present across the area
currently, with FEW- SCT high clouds moving into the northern
portions. W/SW winds around 10 kt will continue through the
period. Additionally, some low- level wind shear is expected
this evening into early Wednesday morning, especially at RIC and
SBY, as a weak LLJ is positioned over the northern half of the
area. SCT- BKN high clouds will return across the entire area
Wednesday morning with the cloud shield from the next
approaching low pressure system to the north and associated cold
front.

Outlook: The cold front will cross the local area Wednesday evening
through early Thursday with some light rain showers possible. A
brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible early Thu
morning, as a secondary front crosses the region, ushering in a much
colder airmass for the late week period into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday
morning due to elevated SW winds.

- A strong cold front crosses the area Wednesday night, bringing
strong NW winds Wednesday night through Thursday night. High end SCA
or low end Gale conditions are likely.

- Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure offshore with a
strong area of low pressure over the N Great Lakes. SSW winds were
generally 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the coastal waters.
The aforementioned low moves E tonight while high pressure
continues to slide offshore. This will result in a tightening
pressure gradient, aided by a strengthening SW low-level jet,
tonight into Wed morning. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt on the
Chesapeake Bay with the potential for 20-25 kt sustained winds
over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts up to 25-30
kt are also expected across the coastal waters. As such, SCAs
remain in effect across the Ches Bay and coastal waters north of
Cape Charles Light tonight into early Wed morning. The only
change was to start all SCAs at 6 PM this evening. SW winds
remain elevated (but below SCA criteria) Wed into Wed evening
ahead of the strong cold front.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Wed night
as the area of low pressure continues to move E into New England,
with another low likely forming in New England to the S of the
parent low. This front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW,
along with a substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt
with gusts up to around 30 kt for most of the local waters. These
elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as CAA maximizes.
High-end SCA to low-end Gale conditions are expected given the
strength of the CAA. Will note that the HRRR and ARW show Gale
conditions immediately behind the front which may need to be covered
by an SMW (if short in duration) or Gale Warning (if longer in
duration). Wind probs for 34 kt have increased to 30-45% across the
portions of the middle Bay early Thu morning but remain <10% for the
rest of the Ches Bay and most of the coastal waters (15-35% across
the N coastal waters). As such, confidence was too low to issue Gale
Warnings at this time. However, if the trend for higher winds
continues, a Gale Warning may be warranted for a portion of the
local waters (greatest chance across the N waters).

Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning
before elevated SW flow returns late Fri afternoon into Sat morning
ahead of another cold front with SCAs likely. The current model
consensus pushes this front through Sat night with additional SCA
headlines possible as winds become W/NW into early next week.

Seas were 2-3 ft this afternoon with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas
and waves build to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft respectively tonight through
Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return Wed night and
continue into Thu night in the wake of the cold front.

Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future. Tides
generally trend lower by the 17th (Sat) with low water (and Low
Water Advisories) possible across much of the coastal locations. The
best chance for low water is across the lower Ches Bay, James River,
York River, and the Atlantic coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654.

&&

$$

#1257091 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
602 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Occasional showers continue tonight, favoring east coast metro
areas.

- Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula on
Thursday, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased
rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overcast skies and light shower activity continues through this
afternoon and potentially the evening as well due to a lingering
frontal boundary to the south over the Florida Straits. This is
leading to cloudy skies and stratiform rain over SE Florida.
Rainfall rates are very light, so no major hazards will occur.
High temperatures will struggle to rise given the ample cloud
cover and light rain, likely only reaching the low to mid 70s for
most areas, but especially for the east coast metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Latest ensembles and global model solutions show a decaying sfc
boundary lingering over SoFlo today, and maybe lifting a little
northward. This will require keeping some POPs through early this
evening, 20-30 percent, favoring the eastern side of SoFlo. 00Z MFL
sounding and model data keep PWATs in the 1.3-1.5" range, for which
potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 1" still remains in the
forecast.

By Wednesday, models show a mid lvl shortwave feature moving around
the base of a deepening trough over the SE CONUS. Both systems are
shown migrating eastward, with overall synoptic flow veering more
southwestward/westward by the afternoon hours. This will further
focus highest chances of rain over the Atlantic coastline and
around the Broward/Palm Beach metro areas. Meanwhile, a more
robust sfc cold front will be pushed southward towards northern
Florida by late Wednesday.

High temperatures for the short term should remain in the upper 70s
to near 80, with overnight lows tonight mainly in the low 60s, with
some mid 60s around the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Model consensus depict a FROPA reaching the area on Thursday, with
rain chances increasing in the Wed night-Thu morning time frame
ahead of the front. Latest timing with this feature places the best
chances of showers during the mid/late morning hours on Thursday
with scattered to numerous showers possible. In general, dynamic
support seem to remain poor as the parent trough/low complex will
continue to pull NE into the eastern seaboard. And with prevailing
cloud cover, the daytime heating component should remain weak enough
to keep mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast attm. This,
however, will continue to be revised and updated as necessary.
50-70 POPs remain in the forecast for Thursday morning.

Winds veer northward Thursday night into Friday as broad high
pressure spreads across the SE CONUS, triggering another cold/dry
air advection event. Coldest temperatures with this robust cold air
mass are expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas
dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas
in the low-mid 30s. Friday afternoon will also remain fairly cool
for being SoFlo, with highs struggling to hit the mid-upper 60s.

Temperatures then gradually warm up during the weekend, but still
remaining around the low 70s in general. Then by Monday, models seem
to suggest another possible cool down with a front approaching the
area. There is still a lot of uncertainty in long range guidance, so
the forecast philosophy beyond the weekend will continue to be
updated with new guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Isolated SHRA is possible overnight through tomorrow morning. With
this in mind, have kept VCSH in for the entire period. Occasional
MVFR/IFR CIGs are still possible through tomorrow as well. Winds
become light tonight and will increase out of the W/WSW after
15-16Z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will continue until later this morning,
then conditions will quickly subside and remain below highlight
criteria through the middle of the week. A frontal passage is
expected to bring another round of hazardous-level winds and seas
for the Thursday night-Friday timeframe.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

High risk of rip currents expected to continue across the
Atlantic coastline until this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 67 80 63 75 / 30 30 20 50
West Kendall 63 80 60 77 / 20 30 20 50
Opa-Locka 66 80 62 76 / 30 30 20 50
Homestead 66 81 62 78 / 20 30 20 50
Fort Lauderdale 67 78 62 74 / 40 30 20 50
N Ft Lauderdale 67 78 62 74 / 40 30 20 50
Pembroke Pines 65 80 61 75 / 30 30 20 50
West Palm Beach 67 79 60 73 / 40 30 20 60
Boca Raton 67 80 61 75 / 40 40 20 60
Naples 65 75 62 71 / 20 20 60 80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257090 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
318 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 313 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

* Low temperatures just below freezing are forecast for most
places that are generally along/north of the I-10/12 corridor
Tuesday morning. Freezing temperatures are forecast to last
several hours Tuesday morning moving above after sunrise. Residents
should take action to protect sensitive vegetation and ensure
outdoor pets have access to warm shelter.

* According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly
half of all home fires occur between the months of December,
January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the
use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and
fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this cold
snap should safety recommendations - such as using a screen and
keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring
all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and
placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable
materials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Tonight through Wednesday, no rainfall is expected, looking at
the models. Temperatures will be cold again Wednesday morning.
Lows on Tuesday morning just above freezing, in the mid 30s. Lows
on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 40s across the area as we
warm up briefly. A reinforcing dry cold front will be moving through the area
Wednesday into Thursday. Looking at the models, there will be very
little, if any, rain associated with this system. But it will
bring cool and dry air back into the region. Generally, a dry and
cool couple of days ahead. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The end of the week into the weekend, conditions will be cold and
dry again. Lows on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 30s on
the backside of the front. Friday will be the coldest day in the
long term forecast with temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s
for most of the area. Temperatures warm up about 5-10 degrees
Friday into Saturday before another reinforcement of cool air
arrives Sunday into early next week. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 313 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Winds will slowly lower through Tue while a surface high moves into
the northern gulf waters late Tue. A west wind will begin as the
high moves SE by Wednesday. West winds will rise ahead of a
reinforcing cold front moving through late Wed bringing winds around
to NW 20-25kt Wed into Thursday. This time frame will likely need
small craft advisory headlines again. NW winds will begin to ease
again late Thursday into Friday. Light and variable winds early
Friday will begin to shift to onshore flow through the day and rise
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 43 60 30 47 / 40 10 0 0
BTR 46 64 34 51 / 20 0 0 0
ASD 44 64 34 52 / 30 10 0 0
MSY 48 67 39 52 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 46 62 35 50 / 30 10 0 0
PQL 41 62 32 50 / 30 10 10 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257089 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
313 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Today, a couple degrees warmer with isolated showers, mainly
Cape Canaveral southward.

- Strong cold fronts arrive Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, bringing a brief increase in rain chances.

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning
lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially Friday
morning and next Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Florida remains under weak surface high
pressure between a stationary front draped across the Florida
Straits to our south and a deep low pressure system tracking
across the eastern US to our north. Moisture in proximity of the
stationary front extending into Central Florida and a weak surface
trough lingering right along/off the Atlantic coast are producing
lots of cloud cover, and even a few light sprinkles this
afternoon. Through the rest of the evening and overnight, the
trough and front are forecast to gradually consolidate into a weak
surface low that will begin to lift north-northeastward, dragging
higher moisture over the area. Very low (20% or less) rain
chances this afternoon gradually increase northward, topping out
at 20-30% inland late tonight/early Wednesday morning, before
shifting offshore as drier air starts to get wrapped behind a
developing weak cool front. Can`t rule out a lightning storm
across the Treasure Coast counties and maybe southern Brevard.
Afternoon highs up a bit but still in the U60s-M70s. Overnight
lows up to he L50s-M60s.

Wednesday-Thursday...The weak surface low will continue to lift
northeastward, pulling the attendant NNE-SSW oriented cool front
draped across the southeast Florida peninsula in the morning
offshore by the afternoon. Cool air advection in westerly flow
behind this boundary subtly brings temperatures down a bit across
most of the area, with Wednesday afternoon highs in the M60-L70s
for all but the Treasure Coast counties who remain in the M-U70s.
The low early morning rain chances (20-30%) push offshore as the
drier and cooler air filters in. There is a low (around 20%)
chance for a lightning storm to develop over the Treasure Coast
counties, and the nearby Atlantic waters. Some gusty conditions
possible Wednesday afternoon with 10-15 mph winds.

A slug of very chilly air by way of a pair of cold fronts then
pushes into Florida, with the first front arriving Wednesday
night, followed by the stronger reinforcing front arriving
Thursday morning. Some moisture recovery is expected in proximity
of the first front (PWATs down to below 1" in places Wednesday
afternoon increasing to 1.25-1.35" overnight), which combined
with ample forcing will support areawide 40-60% rain chances
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. However, instability for
deep convection is virtually non-existent (MUCAPE only 200 J/kg at
best across the southern counties), and as a result lightning
storms aren`t expected. There is still some degree of uncertainty
when and how much rain locations will receive. General CAMs
consensus and HREF has rounds of showers pushing through between 7
PM Wednesday and 9 AM Thursday, but could see showers get started
as early as 4 PM pretty much anywhere, and linger into the late
morning across the southern counties. QPF also runs the gambit.
HREF 24-hour max falls short of half an inch, which is inline with
a very dry GFS at around 0.10" in the operational and 0.10-0.25"
90th percentile in the ensemble. The ECM is a little more
optimistic at 0.20-0.40" in the operational and up to around 0.60"
90th percentile in a band across the northernmost counties in the
ensemble. Overall the rainfall assessment looks to be most places
will get 0.10" or less, while a few lucky spots receive up to
around 0.50".

Temperatures drop a bit Wednesday night, back down into the
U40s-U50s, then plunge Thursday between the arrival of the second
front and cloudy skies. Afternoon highs forecast to remain chilly
in the U50s north of I-4, struggle to make it to the 60s along the
corridor, and only reach the 60s to the south. Breezy
northwesterly winds (approaching 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph)
will add some bite to the cool Thursday temperatures.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday
morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not
changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the prospect of
temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in
addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south as
Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest
breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a
majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will be
needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds decrease
through the day Friday into early Saturday as high pressure
builds over the peninsula behind the fronts. Despite plenty of sun
Friday afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of
the 50s from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s
south). Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for
another cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight,
there is a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over
portions of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback,
climbing into the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this
front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures
swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the
30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing
temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the
front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with
values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Generally favorable ableit a bit rainy
boating conditions nearshore forecast through the day Wednesday.
A weak low pressure system developing from a surface trough near
the Atlantic coast and a stationary front draped over Florida
Straits lifts into portions of the peninsula and local Atlantic
waters tonight, then pushes well offshore by Wednesday evening.
Winds will be shifty at 5-10 kts until the system departs,
becoming westerly 10-15 kts nearshore and 15-20 kts (briefly over
20 kts in the afternoon) offshore Wednesday. Small craft should
exercise caution offshore Wednesday. Rain chances 20% or less this
afternoon gradually increase to 20-30% early Wednesday morning as
higher moisture lifts into the area with this system, then
decrease through the rest of the morning and afternoon as it
departs. An isolated lightning storm mainly across the southern
waters and coast can`t be ruled out. Seas 2-4 ft.

Wednesday Night-Saturday...Boating conditions deteriorate
Wednesday night and Thursday as a pair of strong cold fronts
quickly push through Florida and the local Atlantic waters.
Westerly winds 10-20 kts early Wednesday night shift northwesterly
and increase to 15-25 kts by Thursday morning, then further
increase to 20-30 kts Thursday evening, before settling down to
10-15 kts from the north by Friday morning. Seas build to 3-5 ft
across the waters by Thursday morning, then jump to 7-10 ft
offshore, possibly higher in the Gulf Stream Thursday night. Seas
subdued closer to shore by the offshore wind component, but still
building to 4-7 ft. Seas subside through Friday, settling to 2-5
ft Friday night. Boating conditions briefly more favorable
Saturday before another cold front. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated lightning storms possible Wednesday evening through
Thursday afternoon, then dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR CIGs 045-060 AGL through much of the TAF period with ocnl
breaks. NE to E breeze near 10 knots coast with lesser speeds
interior and potential for variable winds at MCO/LEE/ISM this
afternoon. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop MCO northward aft 08Z
through 14Z-16Z then VFR conds return. West winds increase Wed
aft 16Z with gusts 20-24 knots which will produce some crosswind
issues at MCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 54 66 49 60 / 30 30 50 40
MCO 58 69 53 60 / 30 20 60 40
MLB 60 72 53 65 / 30 30 50 50
VRB 61 74 53 67 / 30 30 40 60
LEE 55 67 50 59 / 20 20 60 30
SFB 56 68 51 60 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 58 68 52 60 / 30 20 60 40
FPR 61 75 53 68 / 30 30 40 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257088 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The model trends continue to agree on a more
progressive (faster) and drier solution for the late week system. No
accumulation to trace amounts of winter precipitation is expected
Thursday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry and mild through Wednesday with a light breeze.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night,
and passes by N of the area on Thurs. Some light precipitation is
possible late Wed, potentially ending as a brief period of non-
accumulating to trace light snow Thurs morning.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and mild through Wednesday with a
light breeze.

Strong surface high pressure (~1028 mb) to the south and southwest
dominates the local weather today with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures generally in the mid 50s as of the time of writing.
Temperatures have begun overachieving slightly as SSW winds allow a
warmer airmass over the area. High temperatures will likely be a few
degrees above current obs in the upper 50s to near 60F in the SE
VA/NE NC. Despite remaining mostly clear tonight, temperatures will
be more mild than last night with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Mid
to high clouds will increase Wednesday ahead of the next cold front,
but SSW flow will remain, keeping temperatures mild with highs in
the mid to upper 50s (lower 50s for the Eastern Shore).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed night,
and passes by N of the area on Thurs. Some light precipitation is
possible late Wed, potentially ending as a brief period of non-
accumulating to trace light snow Thurs morning.

The 12z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for
the mid to late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic late
Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream shortwave
traverses the Gulf coast. Models continue to agree that our area
will be sandwiched between the two streams in the moisture deprived
region. QPF totals remain very low with just a few hundredths of an
inch as most moisture gets hung up on the Appalachian mountains or
pulled towards the southern stream, resulting in the colder air
chasing the moisture which this pattern rarely results in tangible
snowfall. A few light showers are possible with the cold front Wed
afternoon/evening. With this, any snow on the tail end of the precip
Thurs morning will only produce up to a trace amount. Will note, the
12z/HRRR depicts cooler air moving in faster, which would allow for
more accumulating snowfall, but this type of system continuously
brings the colder air slower (which was observed with the last
system), so there`s very low confidence in the HRRR at this
point.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Behind the strong Arctic cold front Wed/Thurs, strong CAA will bring
below average temperatures and breezy/windy conditions. Highs Thurs
and Fri will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures will be
the coldest Thursday night in the mid teens, additionally with near
single digit wind chills. Will need to monitor this for any
potential Cold Weather Advisories.

The next pair of cold fronts will cross the local area Sat/Sun as an
upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS. These fronts once
again look to carry little moisture to the area as they
progressively moves towards the East Coast, unable to tap into any
southern stream moisture. Models have trended slightly drier with
now only slight PoPs (15-20%) during the day Sat and again on Sun.
Another round of cold temperatures behind the fronts will bring
below average temperatures with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the 18z/13 TAF
period. Clear skies across the area currently, with FEW-SCT high
clouds moving into the northern portions later this afternoon. W/SW
winds around 10 kt will continue through the period, with RIC seeing
some gusts to 15-20 kt this afternoon. SBY may see some gusts to 15-
20 kt after 00z/14. Additionally, some low-level wind shear is
likely this evening into Wednesday afternoon, especially at RIC,
ahead of the next passing cold front. SCT-BKN high clouds will
return across the entire area Wednesday morning with the cloud
shield from the next approaching low pressure system to the north
and associated cold front.

Outlook: The cold front will cross the local area Wednesday evening
through early Thursday with some light rain showers possible. A
brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible early Thu
morning, as a secondary front crosses the region, ushering in a much
colder airmass for the late week period into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday
morning due to elevated SW winds.

- A strong cold front crosses the area Wednesday night, bringing
strong NW winds Wednesday night through Thursday night. High end SCA
or low end Gale conditions are likely.

- Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure offshore with a
strong area of low pressure over the N Great Lakes. SSW winds were
generally 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the coastal waters.
The aforementioned low moves E tonight while high pressure
continues to slide offshore. This will result in a tightening
pressure gradient, aided by a strengthening SW low-level jet,
tonight into Wed morning. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt on the
Chesapeake Bay with the potential for 20-25 kt sustained winds
over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts up to 25-30
kt are also expected across the coastal waters. As such, SCAs
remain in effect across the Ches Bay and coastal waters north of
Cape Charles Light tonight into early Wed morning. The only
change was to start all SCAs at 6 PM this evening. SW winds
remain elevated (but below SCA criteria) Wed into Wed evening
ahead of the strong cold front.

A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Wed night
as the area of low pressure continues to move E into New England,
with another low likely forming in New England to the S of the
parent low. This front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW,
along with a substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt
with gusts up to around 30 kt for most of the local waters. These
elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as CAA maximizes.
High-end SCA to low-end Gale conditions are expected given the
strength of the CAA. Will note that the HRRR and ARW show Gale
conditions immediately behind the front which may need to be covered
by an SMW (if short in duration) or Gale Warning (if longer in
duration). Wind probs for 34 kt have increased to 30-45% across the
portions of the middle Bay early Thu morning but remain <10% for the
rest of the Ches Bay and most of the coastal waters (15-35% across
the N coastal waters). As such, confidence was too low to issue Gale
Warnings at this time. However, if the trend for higher winds
continues, a Gale Warning may be warranted for a portion of the
local waters (greatest chance across the N waters).

Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning
before elevated SW flow returns late Fri afternoon into Sat morning
ahead of another cold front with SCAs likely. The current model
consensus pushes this front through Sat night with additional SCA
headlines possible as winds become W/NW into early next week.

Seas were 2-3 ft this afternoon with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas
and waves build to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft respectively tonight through
Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return Wed night and
continue into Thu night in the wake of the cold front.

Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future. Tides
generally trend lower by the 17th (Sat) with low water (and Low
Water Advisories) possible across much of the coastal locations. The
best chance for low water is across the lower Ches Bay, James River,
York River, and the Atlantic coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654.

&&

$$

#1257086 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Cold temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. Sub-
freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the area,
especially Thursday night and over the weekend.

- Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area
Wednesday night and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions
for small craft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Nearly identical upper troughs will impact the eastern half of the
U.S. through the upcoming weekend. Both will feature a 150 knot
upper jet diving south-southeast from south central Canada over
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with an equally strong or
perhaps stronger upper jet extending up along the eastern
Seaboard. The first upper trough will reach its strongest and
become highly amplified late Wednesday night, and the second
reaching its strongest, becoming medium amplified, around midnight
Saturday night. The first trough will feature an associated
surface low pressure area moving across southeast Canada by
midweek, sending an associated strong cold front through the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. This front will
continue to move rapidly toward our region on Wednesday and sweep
through our area from late Wednesday afternoon through mid-
evening. The second trough will feature an associated surface low
pressure area slightly further south and move across the northern
Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, sending an associated strong
cold front through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday and Thursday night. This front will continue toward our
region and pass through our area Saturday morning. A Clipper
System diving southeast across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest Saturday night through Sunday afternoon will send a
reinforcing cold front through our area Sunday morning.

Isolated to scattered light showers are possible late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning as the upper trough approaches
our region and deepens. Isolated to scattered light showers are
also possible north of Highway 84 Wednesday afternoon and east of
the Tombigbee River Wednesday evening ahead of the cold front.
Very little moisture will return ahead of the weekend system, so
we are expecting dry weather conditions. That said, there is a
small potential of a few flurries late Wednesday night and late
Saturday night with the passing of the two surface cold fronts.

High temperatures will be near normal Wednesday in the middle 50s
and lower 60s before we enter into the arctic airmass, with highs
Thursday ranging from 44-49 degrees. Lows Thursday night should
fall into the middle to upper 20s inland, with lower 30s along the
immediate coast. These high and low temperatures are about 10 to
15 degrees below normal. The apparent temperatures Thursday and
Friday mornings in the lower to middle 20s inland and the middle
to upper 20s closer to the coast are expected to remain just above
cold weather advisory criteria. After a quick moderation in
temperatures on Friday, sub-freezing overnight lows are expected
again Saturday and Sunday nights in the wake of the second cold
front.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through
Wednesday afternoon, briefly becoming MODERATE Wednesday night for
the Florida beaches. A LOW risk of rip currents will follow
through the remainder of the week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions expected the rest of the day through the evening. A
passing system is expected to bring local drops to MVFR levels
late tonight into Wednesday morning, Easterly winds of 5 to 10
knots this afternoon will shift to southerly overnight, then
westerly Wednesday morning. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for our entire area
starting Wednesday night due to a strong cold front passes through
the region. This SCA will remain in effect for the coastal waters
of Alabama and northwest Florida until 9 AM Thursday, the coastal
waters out 20 NM until noon, and from 20 to 60 NM until 6 PM.
Prior to the arrival of the front, mariners operating small craft
on the Gulf should exercise caution Wednesday afternoon due to a
moderate westerly flow. Behind the front, offshore flow will
gradually decrease Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours,
becoming a light onshore flow on Friday. A light to moderate
westerly flow Friday night will shift northwesterly on Saturday in
the wake of the next cold front. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 41 60 34 49 / 40 20 10 0
Pensacola 45 61 37 49 / 40 30 20 0
Destin 47 61 39 49 / 40 30 20 0
Evergreen 39 59 32 46 / 40 20 20 0
Waynesboro 40 57 29 45 / 40 20 10 0
Camden 39 56 30 43 / 40 30 20 0
Crestview 37 61 35 48 / 40 30 20 0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

#1257087 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
252 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued Cape Lookout to Surf City to the Small Craft Advisory
from Wednesday evening through Thursday night. Extended the
Small Craft Advisory for Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout through
Thursday night. Probabilities for Gale Force winds has
decreased for Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow Thursday morning. Strong CAA
behind the front will bring wind chill values in the teens
Thursday night into Friday morning.

2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday, with
another surge of cold, dry air behind it.

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA
conditions possible again for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
continue to be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue
likely PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance
remains limited with precip amounts which shows around a
quarter of an inch along the OBX to little accumulation inland.
All liquid precip expected through Wednesday evening.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture lingers that we could see a brief change
over to a rain/snow mix or snow with strong CAA developing
behind the front Thursday morning. This will be a typical cold
air chasing the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday
afternoon except possibly for the immediate coast. Additional
rainfall amounts will only be a few hundredths of an inch liquid
with no snow accumulation expected. The upper level trough axis
pushes across the region Thursday evening bringing descent
forcing but by this time moisture will be quite limited.

Strong CAA continues Thursday night bringing breezy conditions
and temps dropping to around 20 inland and mid to upper 20s
along the coast, which will result in wind chill values in the
teens Thursday night into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn`t
much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip
chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%) and mainly near the
coast. NBM called for snow chances, but with sfc temps in the
40-45F range at that time, paired with the drier trend, elected
to stick with all rain for the forecast.

Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with
additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region keeping
temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s and lows
in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest inland
spots.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure
builds in from the southwest. Southwesterly winds 5-10 kts this
afternoon will diminish to 5 kts or less overnight, then remain
light southerly on Wednesday. Clouds increase late in the TAF period
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Outlook: Predominant VFR flight conditions expected through much of
the period with high pressure in control. An area of low pressure
and cold front will cross through Eastern NC on Wednesday and
Thursday, which could produce lowered ceilings and visibilities
(MVFR), and light precipitation, which may briefly mix with some
snow before ending on Thursday. High pressure returns for Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing WSW winds less than 15 kt and seas around 2 ft
across the waters this afternoon. Will see some strengthening
of the winds as a low crosses the Great Lakes and high pressure
sits offshore, tightening the pressure gradient. This will bring
frequent gusts around 25 kts for the warmer Gulf Stream waters
tonight.

Winds diminish a bit to around 15-20 knots Wednesday before
picking back up to 20-30 knots Wednesday night as a low forms
offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing Small
Craft gusts with this low is along warmer Gulf Stream waters
with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter
wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across the
waters. Guidance is a little weaker with post frontal winds and
NBM probs for Gale Force gusts are below 25%. Continue the SCA
for Gulf Stream waters for frequent gusts but have extended
through Thursday night given the lower probs for Gales.

Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly
building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves
through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
for AMZ152-154-156.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Friday
for AMZ158.

&&

$$

#1257085 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
222 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Period of showers late tonight across interior southern New
England, with some snow showers confined to the very highest
terrain.

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night. A few rain showers perhaps
ending as a brief period of light snow showers early Thu
across the interior.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry and cold
Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits and
teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow
sometime Sat night-Sun, but a significant storm is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Period of showers late tonight across interior
southern New England, with some snow showers confined to the
very highest terrain.

Still a risk for some showers tonight, but thinking the primary
focus is shifting north of our region, closer to the low
pressure north of the Great Lakes. Given the relatively weak
lift and mostly dry lower levels across our region, not
expecting much precipitation. The primary window of concern is
between about 10 PM-4 AM. As warm as we are, expecting mainly
rain for the most likely type, with perhaps snow light snow
across the higher elevations of the Berkshires and far northern
Worcester Hills towards the NH border.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night. A few rain
showers perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers
early Thu across the interior.

A potent mid level shortwave should amplify a mid level trough
to our west Wednesday night. This in turn will continue to boost
temperatures across southern New England Wed into Wed night.
Expecting temperatures some 10-15 degrees above normal during
this time. Some locations across RI and eastern MA could make a
run at highs of 50F Wednesday.

Rainfall should be the main precipitation type given these
temperatures. An approaching cold front late Wednesday night
could lead to some snowfall mixing in across the Berkshires
after midnight. By daybreak Thursday, it`s possible that some
light snow could expand as far east as the Worcester Hills.
Little snow accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps.
Dry and cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single
digits and teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and
lower 30s.

As the low pressure lifts into Northern New England on Thursday a
cold front swoops in ushering in a colder and drier airmass into
SNE. There`s still some question as to how quickly that cold air
arrives, so low confidence on who may see some 40s stick around much
of the day or not. Either way it will feel colder thanks to winds
gusting 20-25 mph late in the day as the pressure gradient tightens
between the deepening low and the incoming ridge of high pressure.
CAA continues into early Friday with 925mb temps dropping to -15C
before rebounding as heights rise toward the weekend. This means one
night (Thursday night) of lows in the single digits and low teens.
Friday, highs only reach into the 20s with continued breezy
winds.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps
a bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun, but a significant storm
is unlikely.

Rising mid level heights are brief as the high pressure quickly
moves east and a mid level trough digs into the Great Lakes.
This places the region under warm SW flow and we`ll see temps
rise back into upper 30s and low 40s Saturday. A weak
disturbance moving through may be enough to kick off some widely
scattered low elevation rain or high elevation snow showers, but
on the whole most locations should be dry. The core of the mid
level low passes north into Canada; too soon to nail down exact
details on what periods may have a better chance at some wet
weather, but we continue to not expect a big storm system over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Very brief MVFR conditions possible across the
interior between about 03-09Z in a few brief rain showers. Any
snow showers will be confined to the very highest terrain of the
Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills and rather short-lived
too. Modest LLJ developing will result in periods of SW wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots tonight near and southeast of the I-95
corridor. LLWS included for some terminals given winds at 850 mb
on the order of 45 to 55 knots.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR for most. Areas MVFR and local IFR towards the Berkshires
during the afternoon. Low risk for some rain showers as well.

Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR to start across the eastern half of southern New
England. Areas MVFR with local IFR across the western half
expanding east after midnight. Widespread MVFR with IFR across
the higher terrain expected towards the Thursday morning push.
Chance of rain showers, with snow showers across the higher
terrain of the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. More widespread
snow showers possible across the western half of southern New
England late.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN, slight chance RA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA.

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Low pressure moving across southeast Canada will result in an
increasing S to SW wind across the waters. Gusts up to 30 kt
possible. Rough seas expected to develop across the southern
coastal waters as well, so Small Craft Advisories continue. A
cold front should approach the waters late Wednesday night.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
freezing rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain,
slight chance of snow.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local
rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain, slight chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ232-234-250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ233.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ235.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

#1257084 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
254 PM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

* Seasonal conditions will prevail across the region with passing
trade-wind showers affecting the windward and coastal areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning and
evening hours.

* Localized afternoon showers will lead to a limited flooding risk
across portions of central and western Puerto Rico each day.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will continue
along the north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra
& St. Croix through the end of the workweek.

* Marine and coastal conditions will deteriorate this weekend with
the arrival of a northwesterly swell and stronger winds. Residents
and visitors are urged to follow the conditions closely as the
week progresses.

&&

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 PM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

High-level cloudiness prevailed throughout most of the morning
across all the islands, accompanied by light to moderate showers
affecting the exposed waters and briefly streaking over the
eastern sides of the islands. As of 12 PM, satellite imagery
showed the cloudiness development, mostly across the interior into
the western interior. Therefore, shower activity developed across
those areas with light to moderate shower activity. Rainfall
accumulations from the Doppler Radar were minimal, with the
highest value in Trujillo Alto at almost half an inch. Daytime
temperatures were near seasonal values. According to unofficial
stations, temperatures were in the mid- to upper 80s across
coastal areas and near the upper 70s and lower 80s in the
interior.

For the rest of the period, the weather will remain mostly stable
as the mid- to upper-level ridge continues to dominate the
atmospheric pattern. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong and broad
surface high pressure will continue to result in an easterly wind
flow. Under this surface pattern, a patch of shallow moisture will
filter in, with Precipitable Water Values of 1.2 inches, as shown
by GOES-derived satellite imagery, exceeding climatological
normal. These surface conditions will be enough to trigger a
variable weather pattern tonight, with occasional showers across
eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Weather conditions will slightly change as the broad surface high
pressure extends farther into the western Atlantic and as some
influence from the frontal boundary located north of the region.
As a result, veering winds will be present, and a southeasterly
flow will be predominant on Wednesday into Thursday. Under this
wind flow, moisture from the Caribbean will move into the islands,
peaking the 850-500 MB Relative humidity at the 75th percentile on
Wednesday. Therefore, the forecast calls for a more showery
pattern, with frequent showers across eastern sections and
afternoon convection across the interior and northwestern parts of
Puerto Rico. On Thursday, similar weather conditions will persist,
with precipitable water values similar to those moving into the
region, but with some instability as a deep-layer trough stalls
over the western Atlantic, weakening the ridge over the area. As a
result, colder temperatures are expected at 500 MB, with potential
for one or two thunderstorms, with the afternoon showers across
the interior and northwestern PR.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

On Friday, model guidance indicates that a frontal boundary will
remain north of the region, while a pre-frontal trough may enhance
low-level moisture convergence and atmospheric instability,
supporting a wetter pattern. Friday currently appears to have the
greatest rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly
across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Precipitable water values are
forecast to range between 1.4 and 1.9 inches from Friday through
Saturday, near to above climatological normals for this time of
year.

Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast
at 10 to 15 mph on Friday, then shift to the east to northeast by
Friday night into Saturday while increasing to 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Breezy to locally windy conditions are
expected Saturday and early Sunday, which may lead to loose outdoor
items being blown around, especially across exposed and coastal
areas.

From Sunday through Tuesday, precipitable water values are
expected to decrease to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches, with patches
of near-average moisture moving across the region. This will
support more variable but seasonable conditions, with passing
trade wind showers and limited convective development each
afternoon. No flooding concerns at this time.

A subtropical jet streak near 250 mb will establish a favorable
dynamic pattern from Tuesday night into Wednesday, supporting
upper-level divergence and an induced surface trough. As a result,
an increase in the frequency of showers is expected across the
forecast area under a northeasterly low-level wind flow. Continue
to monitor the forecast updates.

Temperature-wise, ensemble guidance continues to indicate near
seasonal to above-normal temperatures across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 PM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will persist across all TAF sites during the
period. VCSH to SHRA will continue near TJSJ, TJBQ & TJPS from now
through 13/22Z. Winds will persist from the E-NE up to 11 knots
with sea breeze variation, diminishing at 14/03Z./ Hi-Resolution
models show an increase in shower activity across the eastern TAF
sites from 13/23Z to 14/12Z. No significant operations are
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a surface
trough to the north of the region will maintain gentle to moderate
east to northeast winds through Wednesday, then shifting from the
east to southeast by Thursday. This pattern will support passing
trade- wind showers, mainly across the Atlantic waters, with
occasional showers also moving through the Caribbean passages. By
Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds and the arrival of
a long- period northerly swell will likely result in choppy to
rough seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during the
weekend. Mariners are advised to continue monitoring the forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 253 PM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the next several
days along the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as
well as Culebra and St. Croix, with breaking waves around 4 feet.
A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents are
possible within the surf zone, and beachgoers should exercise
caution at all times.

Conditions are likely to deteriorate over the weekend as winds
increase and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell. This
will lead to a high rip current risk across Atlantic exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more
location specific information, continue to monitor
weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257083 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
138 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Strong post-frontal winds have trended a bit weaker on Thursday,
and the probability for a Lake Wind Advisory on Thursday
afternoon has diminished. A fourth key message was added to
cover the concerns for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure over the region will keep conditions dry through
the remainder of the day, with relative humidity values dropping to
low levels this afternoon.

2) Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions possible Thursday
into Friday as gusty post-frontal winds combine with low humidity.

3) Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows in
the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches.

4) Dry and cooler temperatures for the second half of the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure over the region will keep conditions
dry through the remainder of the day, with relative humidity values
dropping to low levels this afternoon.

Dry surface high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast
across the Southeast today. As of 1630Z, observations have been
showing dewpoints in the mid 20s to upper 20s range with some
locations showing values in the low 30s. Weak southwest flow will
yield dewpoints in the mid 30s by the afternoon, spreading inland
from the coastline. Minimum RH values will occur in the afternoon
hours, prior to dewpoint recovery. Forecast min. relative humidity
values will fall into the mid to upper 20 percent range west of I-
95, with low to mid 30 percent range and and east of I-95. High
temperatures are forecast to range around 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday, with temps. reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions possible
Thursday into Friday as gusty post-frontal winds combine with low
humidity.

A rex block will be well-established over the Western CONUS on
Thursday, as broad downstream amplified trough exists across the
Eastern CONUS. This trough should slowly deamplify as a closed mid-
lvl low pushes eastward across the Great Lakes, yielding lower
heights out ahead of it. Despite the magnitude of these dropping
heights, precipitation chances remain limited (less than 10%) with
the approaching surface cold front. This mainly due to location of
the LFQ of the subtropical jet streak on Thursday early morning, and
most of the precipitation will be located offshore.

Post-FROPA conditions will yield strong low-lvl CAA and expect 850
mb temps. to drop from 0C to -8C on Thursday morning. This combined
with peak mixing and downslope flow in the low to mid lvls will
likely result in breezy northwesterly flow on Thursday afternoon
with 20 to 25 mph gusts possible. It`s possible that a Lake
Wind Advisory might be needed for Thursday afternoon, however
probabilities of winds reaching 25 kt has dropped down to
20-25%.

Additionally, expect dewpoints to drop rapidly into the low to mid
teens behind the cold front allowing relative humidity values to
drop below 30% west of I-95 on Thursday afternoon. It`s important to
note that the Wambaw and Glissons Pond RAWS sites have both had fuel
moisture values in the single digits on the previous Sunday and
Monday afternoons.

Walking into Friday morning, surface high pressure will settle
across the region and keep dewpoints in the low to mid teens through
Friday evening, before dewpoint recovery. The latest LREF probs.
indicate 40-50% chance of RH values less than 25% west of I-95.

Also of note is that lingering upper lift associated with the
strongest DPVA will pass over the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, coincident with low-lvl temps well below freezing.
Very dry mid to upper-lvl air advecting overhead is very likely to
preclude any potential for precip., with cluster analysis revealing
that only outlier guidance showing a much greater amplitude upper-
lvl trough shows potential for flurries mainly across the Low
Country. Take home message here is that we are very likely to remain
dry Wednesday night/early Thursday, with the worst case scenario
being some brief flurries.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning,
with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches.

There is very good agreement in calm winds emerging as the surface
ridge axis builds overhead Thursday evening and overnight. Temps
away from the coast drop below freezing within a few hours after
sunset, then continue to steadily cool through the night as dew
points remain in the lower teens. Lows will likely be in the upper
teens inland of US Hwy 17 corridor, and low-to-mid 20s closer to the
coast. As such the potential for lows of 20 or less is generally
likely (50-80%) inland of the US Hwy 17 corridor, 10-40% along the
US Hwy 17 corridor, including much of the inland portions of the
Charleston and Savannah Metro areas, and less than 10% for areas
near the beaches.

Key Message 4: Dry with cooler temperatures for the second half of
the weekend into early next week.

As an upper level trough moves towards the region, a cold front
sweeps through Saturday night into Sunday. Overnight lows dip into
the mid 20s to lower 30s for inland areas, and into the mid 30s
along the coast. Probabilities for overnight temperatures at or
below 20 degrees F are very low, only 10% for interior Georgia. The
upper level trough axis pushes through on Sunday, with ensemble
clustering showing the majority of solutions keep the region dry
given the lack of moisture. If moisture were to become more
plentiful, the ptype would largely remain rain given warm
thermodynamic profiles, with afternoon highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s. However, the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P)
does show a 5-10% chance for a trace of snowfall from the colder
solutions, but again moisture looks to be lacking so we most likely
won`t see any falling precipitation.

Coldest temperatures move down overnight into Monday as a surface
high pressure builds into the region, with overnight lows down into
the mid 20s for furthest inland areas and up into the lower 30s
along the coast. Given a decent radiational cooling set up which may
lead to further cooling, probabilities for temperatures at or below
20 degrees are in the 40-50% range for those furthest inland, and
down to 5% along the coast. Ahead of the approaching high pressure,
winds may remain just strong enough (near 5 knots) where wind chills
may dip into the 15 to 20 degrees range, with highest probabilities
again for the furthest inland areas right at 50%, dropping to 25%
along the coast. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. Highs on
Monday remain below normal, in the lower to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z
Wednesday. It`s possible to see flight restrictions Wednesday
afternoon as showers develop ahead of the approaching cold
front, however confidence remains low with this.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad surface high pressure remains across the marine zones
through tonight, yielding 5 to 10 kts and seas between 2 to 3
ft. Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through early Thursday morning.

A strong cold front will march across the local waters late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, yielding gusty post-frontal
northwesterly winds Thursday mid-day through Thursday evening.
Expect seas to gradually build to 3 to 5 ft across the nearshore
waters with possible 6 footers peaking into the offshore
Georgia waters on Thursday afternoon into the evening.
Therefore, Small Craft Advisories seem likely for Thursday mid-
day into the evening.

Expect improved marine conditions for Friday as upper-lvl
ridging settles overhead, yielding light to moderate winds and
seas mainly 1 to 2 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257082 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one
on Wednesday and another Friday.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third possible cold front
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A weak upper level low over central Texas this afternoon will
continue eastward tonight, merging with a broader trough digging
across much of the Central/Eastern Conus. We`ve already seen
widespread light showers across the region on radar, indicating that
PWs of 0.75-1.00 inches have been sufficient with the amount of lift
provided by the low. Shower coverage is expected to peak this
afternoon (right around now) as we get the full forcing from the
passing upper level low. Activity then tapers off from west to east
into overnight into Wednesday as the low exists the area. Anticipate
another cold evening with lows for Wednesday morning in the
40s/lower 50s.

Wednesday kicks off with the aforementioned upper level low, now
shortwave, east of the area, now embedded within the much stronger
mid/upper trough spanning the Central/Eastern CONUS. This larger
upper level feature is anticipated to push a weaker reinforcing
front through SE Texas on Wednesday. Winds may briefly shift W/WSW
early in the morning due to a prefrontal trough moving in from the
north. The reinforcing front should lag behind it, entering the
Brazos Valley during the late morning, then moving off the coast
during the late afternoon. PWs will be fairly low, generally under
0.75", thus showers will be extremely sparse if any form to begin
with. Breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures should settle
in behind the front. Daytime highs may top out in the 60s/lower 70s,
but anticipate much cooler temps overnight with lows for Thursday
morning in the 30s/40s. A light freeze could occur in many spots
across the Piney Woods area near Crockett.

Thursday won`t be a particularly active day as we find ourself post-
cold front. Surface high pressure should pass over the region during
the daytime with breezy northerly winds early in the day becoming
light and variable, then later shifting southeasterly in the
evening. Daytime highs will be fairly cool as onshore flow is
(tentatively) set to occur after peak heating, with highs topping
out in the 50s. After onshore flow is resumes, we`ll see moisture
slowly return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of
cooling overnight. Lows for Friday morning will should be slightly
warmer, though still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with
some lower 50s along the coast.

Friday should see another mid/upper level trough dig through the
Northern Mississippi River Valley/Great Lakes. This trough should
send another cold front towards SE Texas, which should push into the
Brazos Valley during the late afternoon and later off the coast some
time around midnight. PWs by this point are forecasted to be around
0.5" or less. Rain chances will be very low with this frontal
passage too, but there is still a chance that some light showers
could develop along the coast as moisture pools. Highs during the
daytime should top out in the 60s/lower 70s. Breezy and cooler air
filters in overnight into the early morning hours with lows for
Saturday morning ranging from the 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at
the coast. Could see lows touch the freezing mark across the
northern edge of our CWA.

Saturday on the whole should feature benign, post-frontal weather as
high pressure fills in over the region, causing winds to relax and
shift northeasterly. Highs should reach the 50s/60s during the
daytime. Clear skies aloft from high pressure and with northerly
flow still in place, we should see some of the coolest temperatures
overnight into Sunday morning with lows in the 30s/lower 40s inland
and mid/upper 40s along the coast.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return
during the afternoon. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually
warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs
for Sunday should reach the upper 50s/60s during the daytime.
Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with
lowers for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the upper
30s/lower 50s.

Forecast certainty decrease heading into next week, but signs
suggest that we`ll see at least one more afternoon of warmer weather
on Monday. Highs are anticipated to reach the the 60s/lower 70s
during the daytime, with some isolated showers/storm chances
possible during the daytime as PWs climb above 1.0 inch. Long range
models suggest that another mid/upper level trough may dig across
the Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Monday, sending
another cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still up in the air, but
anticipate the FROPA to occur some time Monday afternoon/evening or
early Tuesday Morning.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with BKN to OVC mid and high level
clouds passing through the region. There will be a chance of
isolated, light showers developing during the afternoon hours
today. Winds today will be southwesterly around 5-8kt, become
variable overnight, and then return to southwesterly during the
morning on Wednesday. A cold front will be passing through the
region Wednesday afternoon ushering in a north-northwesterly wind
shift.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels through the
week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern
half of the the bays. Another cold front will push off the coast
Wednesday afternoon, prompting Small Craft Advisories across all
bays and waters. Low Water Advisories may be needed overnight into
Thursday morning as water levels approach -1.0ft MLLW. High pressure
passes over the area Thursday, causing winds and seas to decrease
and shift southeasterly. Another cold front is slated to push off
the coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing
moderate northeasterly winds in it`s wake.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 44 67 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 47 69 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 68 44 57 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

#1257081 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1223 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- After today, minimal rain chances until next week

- Elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon behind cold
front

- Wind chill values in the 30s Thursday and Friday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light rain and virga earlier this morning over South Texas continues
to linger in eastern areas early this afternoon. I do expect most if
not all of this light rain to come to stop by late this afternoon,
with mostly cloudy conditions and light offshore winds limiting
highs in the mid 60s. Drier air and mostly clear skies tonight will
allow for morning lows to drop into the low-mid 40s and highs to
climb into the 70s Wednesday before our next cold front pushes
through in the afternoon.

Relative humidity values dropping to 20-30% with northerly wind
gusts of 20-25 mph and above normal Energy Release Component (ERC)
values Wednesday afternoon, will likely result in elevated fire
weather conditions across the Brush Country and portions of the
inland Coastal Plains. Onshore flow returns briefly Thursday night
through Friday, before another cold front moves into South Texas
Friday night into Saturday morning. Low confidence on the southern
extent of the front, with both ECENS/GEFS showing the front stalling
west to east across the CWA while the CMC has the front plow
through. Temperatures and any rain chances will be heavily dependent
on the location of the front, don`t expect great rain chances with
PWAT values just near or slightly below normal.

Models are in good agreement with onshore flow and southerly flow
aloft returning early next week ahead of a front, bringing PWAT
values to the 90-99th percentile and rain chances Monday into
Tuesday. Model discrepancies become more apparent with this front
and the mid-level low/trough developing off of northeast Canada.
Highs into early next week will range from the 60s to 70s and lows
in the 40s through the rest of this week, warming into the 50s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing across South Texas, with lingering
light rain and virga continuing into this afternoon over the
Coastal Plains. Light offshore winds will continue through
Wednesday morning, ahead of our next cold front Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze will continue through
Wednesday morning. Winds will increase to fresh to strong and
shift northerly (BF 5-6) Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning as another cold front moves across the waters, leading to
Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will diminish to gentle to
moderate (BF 3-4) Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A gentle
to moderate (BF 3-4) southerly breeze returns Friday before
another cold front stalls across the area this upcoming weekend,
shifting winds out of the northeast and occasionally fresh (BF-5).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A cold front will usher in drier air (minimum relative humidity
values less than 30%) Wednesday afternoon and continue each
afternoon through the end of the week which, when combined with
above normal ERC values, could lead to elevated fire weather
conditions through the end of the work week. Elevated fire weather
conditions are most likely Wednesday afternoon with northerly wind
gusts of 20-25 mph. Following, light winds will limit our fire
weather threat and keep us well below thresholds for critical fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 46 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 43 73 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
Laredo 45 75 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 44 77 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 51 73 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 43 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 44 76 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 53 73 50 62 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
for GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

#1257080 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next cold front arrives Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. There
is a 60% to 80% chance of showers tomorrow night as the front
moves through. The probability of thunderstorms is low.

- Hazardous marine conditions are forecast Thursday morning
through Friday morning. Winds of 20kts to 30kts with gusts to
near gale force (34kts) are forecast. This will create seas up
to 10 feet offshore and seas of 4 to 7 feet nearshore.
Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor.

- A significant cooldown is forecast late this week. Friday
morning will be the coldest, with lows in the 20s and 30s away
from the coast, and around 40 degrees along the coast. Plan
accordingly, particularly in the overnight and early morning
hours when temperatures will be at their coldest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A trough axis is centered over the Great Lakes region and stretches
south into the Central Plains, becoming increasingly diffuse as weak
ridging holds on across the Caribbean and southern Gulf. This is,
however, being eroded as a cut-off low propagates eastward across
West TX. For now, though, the pattern remains relatively flat and
surface high pressure remains in control.

Given the surface ridge axis placement well to the East near
Bermuda, a return flow has settled across the FL peninsula.
Relatively warmer and more moist air is being advected back across
the region. With this lower-level moisture this means more clouds
and weak low-level instability. A low-topped, quick-passing shower
cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon/evening across the
southern interior and SWFL given this setup, but most areas should
stay dry today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The more impactful weather system arrives late tomorrow and into
Thursday morning. The cut-off low over TX is absorbed by the flow as
the trough over the Great Lakes digs into the SE and becomes
positively tilted. This will usher in a strong cold front to the
region.

Ahead of the front, showers are forecast to develop across Gulf
waters and move onshore. Some of these showers could have some gusty
winds - but the overall potential for lightning is low given the
weak (-5C) low-level lapse rates. It`s just not a very rapidly
cooling atmosphere in the layer where the deeper moisture lies.

However, the strong frontal system will drive a steep pressure
gradient and thus favor gusty winds. These will begin to increase as
the front approaches, but will become stronger once the front
passes. Wind gusts over coastal waters could approach gale force
(34kts). Friction over land favors wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

Colder air then filters in behind the frontal passage, with several
chilly days in store. The coldest day in the forecast currently
looks to be Friday. Lows will generally be in the 20s and 30s,
except right at the water where temperatures will be closer to 40
degrees due to the relatively warmer water.

Gradually, temperatures then begin to warm up through the weekend as
high pressure settles east and the low-level flow veers to more of a
southerly direction. However, meridional flow stays dominant in the
upper-levels, which means another trough and associated frontal
boundary will arrive in the area early next week. This will hold
temperatures down, and favors some additional cooling early next
week. Currently, next Monday is also looking pretty similar
temperature-wise to how Friday will be this week. Gradual warming
then resumes towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The only significant aviation concern over the next 24 to 30 hours
is for MVFR to perhaps even IFR conditions due to low CIGs. There is
a low (less than 20%) probability of a shower after 18Z tomorrow for
Tampa Bay area terminals. Probabilities for showers will then
increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the next front
approaches. A period of MVFR to even IFR weather will also accompany
these showers before conditions gradually improve through Thursday.
However, gusty winds should be expected during the day Thursday,
before gradually improving Thursday night and into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Marine conditions will begin deteriorating late tomorrow as the next
cold front approaches. Some storms are forecast across coastal
waters, with some locally hazardous marine conditions possible in
the vicinity. However, winds begin to increase significantly behind
the front, with gusts to near gale force possible on Thursday. This
favors dangerous seas of up to 10 feet offshore and 4 to 7 feet
nearshore. Inexperienced mariners should remain in port until
conditions improve. Winds then begin to settle Thursday night and
into Friday, with improving marine conditions Saturday before
gradually increasing again as the next front approaches late in the
weekend and early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No significant fire weather concerns through tomorrow with ample
moisture and light winds to preclude any red flag concerns. The next
front arrives overnight Wednesday and into Thursday, with the
potential for some rain across the entire region. Conditions then
dry out on Thursday as winds increase. Winds then diminish into
Friday and the first half of the weekend, which will again lower
fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 58 69 55 63 / 10 20 80 40
FMY 63 75 60 70 / 20 10 70 70
GIF 58 71 54 62 / 20 20 60 40
SRQ 59 70 57 66 / 10 20 80 60
BKV 50 68 47 61 / 10 20 70 30
SPG 62 70 59 65 / 10 20 80 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

#1257079 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Below normal temperatures are expected for several days behind a strong
cold front on Wednesday. Friday morning will be the coldest
this work week with a high chance (80-100 percent) of an inland
hard freeze (25F or lower). There is a low to medium (20 to 40
percent) of temperatures tumbling below 20 degrees across
Alabama and Georgia Friday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop behind the next cold
front on Wednesday night and Thursday with a medium to high
chance (60-80 percent) of gale force northwest wind gusts west
of Apalachicola.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Clouds increase from west to east late tonight into Wednesday ahead
of our next cold front later Wednesday. A few showers are forecast
along with the front, but rainfall totals are forecast to generally
be less than 0.10", so it won`t alleviate the ongoing drought
conditions. Temperatures cool into the middle to upper 30s across
much of the region tonight. Filtered sunshine and the arrival of a
few showers Wednesday afternoon should keep daytime highs in the
upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A couple of cold fronts are forecast to swing through the region
later this week into the weekend. The cold front mentioned in the
Short Term portion swings through Wednesday night. Gusty northerly
winds develop following the front, ushering in much colder weather
for Thursday as highs struggle to get out of the upper 40s to near
50.

A strong area of high pressure settles overhead Thursday night into
Friday morning, opening the door for a very cold Friday morning.
There is a high (80-100%) chance of many locations away from the
immediate coast experiencing a Hard Freeze with temperatures at or
below 25 degrees. There is a low to medium (20 to 40%) chance of
temperatures tumbling into the teens across portions of southern
Georgia and Alabama Friday morning.

Subtly warmer weather arrives Friday afternoon as the surface high
pressure scoots east of the region. Temperatures warm into the 50s
Friday afternoon and back into the upper 50s to middle 60s Saturday
afternoon. Another cold front races through the area late Saturday
night into Sunday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air
for Sunday night into Monday. There is currently a medium (40 to
60%) chance of another hard freeze, or temperatures below 25
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Some SHRA is possible
at ECP and DHN after 08z, moving eastward through the rest of the
TAF period. With rain chances fairly low, have only made mention of
VCSH in the TAFs with no categorical changes. Trends will be
monitored if timing and/or rain chances become more certain. MVFR
cigs begin to sneak into DHN near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Favorable marine conditions continue tonight as high pressure
remains in control. Winds turn more westerly Wednesday ahead of a
cold front and increase to moderate to fresh Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night. Northwesterly gusts near gale force will
follow that front on Thursday with the strongest winds west of
Apalachicola. Winds will quickly decrease on Thursday night and
Friday as a high center passes directly across the waters Friday
evening. Yet another cold front will cross the waters on Saturday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Fair to good dispersions return to the region Wednesday. Increasing
westerly transport winds are expected ahead of a cold front that
swings through Wednesday night. A few showers are forecast along
with the front, with the most likely rainfall totals forecast to be
less than 0.10". Strong, gusty winds follow the front Thursday,
supporting another day of good to excellent dispersions. MinRH will
start to near critical values across our northern Georgia Districts
Thursday with them becoming a bit more widespread across Georgia
into the Florida Big Bend Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days. Forecast
rainfall totals are generally forecast to be less than 0.10". There
is a low, less than 20 percent, chance of rainfall exceeding 0.25"
with the highest chances along the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 40 59 41 49 / 10 40 10 0
Panama City 44 62 40 51 / 40 30 30 0
Dothan 40 57 34 46 / 30 20 10 0
Albany 37 57 37 47 / 30 30 10 0
Valdosta 37 58 39 49 / 10 40 10 10
Cross City 43 63 42 56 / 10 40 40 10
Apalachicola 44 60 42 51 / 20 50 50 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257078 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
116 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Some
interior rain showers very late tonight, but any snow showers
confined to the very highest terrain. Relatively mild conditions
today, and especially Wednesday, with sharply colder weather
arriving later Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold front.
While a significant storm appears unlikely Saturday night into
Sunday, a bit of snow is certainly possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall quiet weather today, followed by a period of showers
late tonight across interior southern New England with some
snow showers confined to the very highest terrain.

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early
Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry & cold Thu
night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits & teens
with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow
sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall quiet weather today, followed by a
period of showers late tonight across interior southern New
England with some snow showers confined to the very highest
terrain.

A series of shortwaves quickly move from west to east tonight
along zonal flow. First disturbance passes with little impacts
outside of an increase in mid and high level clouds this morning
across northern MA. Milder day follows as a transient ridge axis
develops over New England. Latest guidance still shows a milder
day on tap as 925mb temps climb to 0- 2C. A more amplified
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. First sign of its approach will be increasing mid and
high level clouds later today. Should see a broken band of
precipitation pass through the CWA with the higher chances
located across northern Massachusetts. Much of the forcing with
this shortwave will be confined to Northern New England and so
shower activity will be limited in coverage and intensity. May
also see a few flakes mix in across the higher terrain but
accumulations if any will be light with marginal temperatures
and modest QPF.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain
showers perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers
early Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

An amplifying shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and
into northern New England Wed into early Thu. Out ahead of this
cold front/amplifying shortwave trough, southerly flow will
result in unseasonably mild temperatures. Despite considerable
clouds, high temps will be well into the 40s to near 50 in a few
spots. These readings are a solid 10+ degrees above normal for
mid January standards.

Given the bulk of the dynamics passing to our north, not
expecting a lot of precipitation and much of this time will
feature dry weather. Nonetheless, a few showers will be possible
at times Wed into Wed night with the focus for them across
interior southern New England closer to the shortwave energy. As
colder air begins to work in from the west, may see precipitation
end as a brief period of light snow showers across interior
southern New England early Thu morning. Any snow accumulations
should be a dusting to generally less than 1 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps.
Dry & cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single
digits & teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower
30s.

Low pressure will rapidly intensifies Thu into Thu night as it
tracks northeast from northern new England into the Canadian
Maritimes. The result will be a shot of much colder air working
into southern new England Thu into Fri. Temps on Thu will likely
fall during the afternoon into the upper 20s and 30s on a stiff
gusty west wind. Low temps Thu night will drop into the upper
single digits and teens. Wind chills will drop to between 5
below and 10 above by daybreak Fri. High temps on Fri will only
recover into the upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure building
in from the west will keep our weather dry, despite the cold
conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps
a bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm
is unlikely.

High pressure quickly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast to
start this weekend as another trough gets carved out across the
Great Lakes. This allows for a quick rebound in temperatures
with highs mainly in the 40s on Sat. The forecast then becomes
quite complex Sat night into Sunday with an amplifying trough to
our west with several pieces of shortwave energy. The problem is
that the guidance is struggling on which piece of energy to
amplify and where the actual surface low develops. Latest
guidance tends to develop the main surface low too far north and
late for a significant storm. That being said, there are a few
pieces of guidance including the CMC/ICON that have a wave of
low pressure further south with the potential for an inverted
trough setup. So while a significant storm appears unlikely,
given the amount of shortwave energy to our west we cannot rule
out period of snow sometime Sat night into Sun if an inverted
trough sets up. Whether or not this happens remains to be
seen, but it is something to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Very brief MVFR conditions possible across the
interior between about 03-09Z in a few brief rain showers. Any
snow showers will be confined to the very highest terrain of the
Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills and rather short-lived
too. Modest LLJ developing will result in periods of SW wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots tonight near and southeast of the I-95
corridor. LLWS included for some terminals given winds at 850 mb
on the order of 45 to 55 knots.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR for most. Areas MVFR and local IFR towards the Berkshires
during the afternoon. Low risk for some rain showers as well.

Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR to start across the eastern half of southern New
England. Areas MVFR with local IFR across the western half
expanding east after midnight. Widespread MVFR with IFR across
the higher terrain expected towards the Thursday morning push.
Chance of rain showers, with snow showers across the higher
terrain of the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. More widespread
snow showers possible across the western half of southern New
England late.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Low pressure moving across southeast Canada will result in an
increasing S to SW wind across the waters. Gusts up to 30 kt
possible. Rough seas expected to develop across the southern
coastal waters as well, so Small Craft Advisories continue. A
cold front should approach the waters late Wednesday night.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

#1257077 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
106 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A few showers may brush the island chain over the next few days.
There is the potential for slight chance of thunder through
Thursday, though, the better risk is across the marine area.

-A strong cold front will move through the Keys on Thursday. This
will bring a period of breezy to windy conditions to the Keys
along with strong to potentially near gale breezes to the Florida
Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are becoming
increasingly likely later this week.

-In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier
conditions for late week through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Light showers with MVFR ceilings are currently impacting
the MTH, therefore, a TEMPO is included for the next hour. Outside
of convection, near surface winds are northeasterly at 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
KBYX radar has remained active all night with the shower activity
mostly across the Straits of Florida. However, occasionally a few
showers have moved across the Upper Keys, especially near Key
Largo. MRMS data over the last 3 hours show estimated rainfall
amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall in
association with these showers across the Upper Keys. The heaviest
amounts remain across the central Straits where upwards of three
tenths of inch were estimated due to heavier activity. GOES 19
Nighttime Microphysics shows partly cloudy skies across the Keys
with the most robust cloud cover across the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the
lower 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
An elongated surface ridge remains in place across the Southeast
U.S. early this morning. This is promoting mainly northeast
breezes of 10 to 15 knots at marine platforms surrounding the
Island Chain.

.FORECAST...
The surface ridge currently across the Southeast U.S. will
continue to drift southeastward through tonight while weakening.
This will result in light to gentle breezes during the day
becoming mainly light for tonight. High moisture for this time of
the year remains in place across the Keys leading to chances PoPs
for the next several forecast periods. The exception will be
tonight when rain chances drop to slight due to a subtle dip in
moisture. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated
PWATs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches across the Keys which is between the
75th and 90th percentile for the date. In addition, a pre-frontal
trough will approach the Keys Wednesday/Wednesday night. Modest
instability, plenty of moisture, and a trigger being the pre-
frontal trough will yield the potential for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. The better risk for a thunderstorm will remain
across the marine area where the greater instability, moisture,
and lift will be. Latest statistical guidance has backed off on
the idea of thunder across the area, however, confidence wasn`t
high enough this update to remove it just yet. Most likely this
will be scrutinized period by period. One of the other reasons for
not removing just yet is that we will have some upper level
forcing this go around which we typically don`t always see in the
Keys.

The main show arrives Thursday when a strong cold front will usher
in Florida winter for the next several days and through the length
of the extended. Temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble
Thursday night. Overnight lows are expected to be 50 to 55 for
Thursday night with daytime highs Friday only managing 60 to 65
degrees. The air conditioners will be able to get a well deserved
break for late week through at least the middle of next week.
Accompanying the frontal passage, expect a rapid surge in breezes
across all the Florida Keys with breezy, becoming windy conditions
anticipated along the Island Chain. For the marine area, the
potential exists for a window of near gale breezes. The peak of
the wind surge right now looks to be Thursday afternoon and
evening before gradually slackening thereafter. Breezes will
originally be westerly before shifting to the northwest to north
overnight and then north by Friday morning. Breezes rapidly
slacken by Friday afternoon as the gradient collapses. The cold
front will push out any residual moisture resulting in a dry
forecast from Thursday night through the extended.

Another reinforcing front may press through the Keys sometime
Sunday/Sunday night keeping the chill going. Daytime highs through
the period will be near 70 degrees and overnight lows in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Dew points will also have a hard
time reaching 60 degrees after the front passes through on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a surface ridge
stretching across the southeastern U.S. will weaken and slide
southeastward through tonight. This will promote slackening
breezes to light to gentle. Thereafter, a pre- frontal trough will
slide across the region on Wednesday, briefly clocking winds
around to the southeast initially, then southwest, and eventually
west to northwest. This will be followed by a second, stronger
cold front on Thursday with a round of strong to potentially near
gale breezes. Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly
likely later this week.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257076 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1256 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- A couple degrees warmer today with isolated showers, mainly
Cape Canaveral southward

- Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
bringing a brief increase in rain chances

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning
lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially
Friday morning and next Monday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Today-Tonight...An inverted surface trough remains just offshore
this morning while a low cloud deck persists over the northern
half of the area. The most recent cold front to move through ECFL
has settled across the Florida Straits as a stationary front. Current
temperatures range widely from the low/mid 50s north of Orlando
to the upper 60s along the Treasure Coast. Where moisture remains
marginally sufficient today, mainly over the Treasure Coast and
Gulf Stream, isolated showers will be possible. That said, a
majority of the area will stay dry with temperatures warming a few
degrees more compared to yesterday (highs in the low/mid 70s).

Moisture return and the south Florida front moving north helps to
expand 20-30% rain chances northward overnight, but the majority
of activity will be focused out over the Gulf Stream. In other
words, a continuation of isolated showers will simply expand north
toward Cape Canaveral and even the Volusia Coast through daybreak
Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to settle into the mid 50s
north to the low/mid 60s from the Orlando metro to the Treasure
Coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Wednesday morning, a weak cool front looks to
be draped across portions of the Treasure Coast and Gulf Stream
waters, before sliding east of the area by midday. Our focus is on
the next series of cold fronts, approaching central Florida late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 500mb height falls begin in
earnest late Wednesday afternoon as a trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. Rain chances look limited Wednesday, with one batch
of QPF shifting well offshore and models in disagreement on very
light QPF north of Orlando in the afternoon.

We will be waiting on the arrival of a stronger cold front early
Thursday, bringing with it slightly better rain chances (30-55%).
Model guidance lends to a little lower confidence than is typical
at this time range. GFS+AI ensembles point to generally 0.2" or
less of measurable rain between now and the FROPA Thursday
morning, whereas the ECMWF+AI ensembles are more centered around
0.3"-0.4" of rain. Granted, a couple tenths of rain is not a huge
difference with most of the area under D0-D1 (abnormally dry to
moderate drought) conditions. As quickly as rain moves in, it will
move out over the open Atlantic Thursday afternoon.

A westerly breeze Wednesday under a mostly cloudy sky is likely to
keep temperatures a bit cooler, especially north of I-4. Behind
Thursday`s front, noticeably colder and drier will rush southward
supported by a 10-15+ mph wind (gusting 20-25 mph at times,
especially at the coast). Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Wednesday trend down on Thursday, struggling to reach the
60-degree mark Orlando northward. Skies quickly clear Thursday
night, setting the stage for a cold night and brisk wind chill
values.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday
morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not
changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the idea of
temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in
addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south
as Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest
breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a
majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will
be needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds
decrease through the day Friday into early Saturday as high
pressure builds over the peninsula. Despite plenty of sun Friday
afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of the 50s
from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s south).
Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for another
cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight, there is
a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over portions
of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback, climbing into
the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this
front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures
swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the
30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing
temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the
front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with
values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Weak surface trough remains over the nearshore waters through
tonight as N-E winds decrease today. Isolated showers are forecast
along the Treasure Coast and over the Gulf Stream, expanding north
and eastward in time, especially on Wednesday. Seas fall to 3-4
ft today and 2-4 ft Wednesday.

A strong cold front approaches early Thursday morning, quickly
pushing south of the waters by the afternoon. Shower chances
increase to 40-60%, followed by freshening NW winds behind the
front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions gradually expand from
the offshore waters Thursday morning to the remaining marine legs
Thursday afternoon. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt
(esp. offshore) build seas to 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore
Thursday night. The pressure gradient quickly unwinds Friday as
high pressure builds overhead, allowing seas to fall to 3-6 ft
Friday afternoon. Favorable boating conditions return Friday night
and continue through much of Saturday (seas 2-3 ft).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR CIGs 045-060 AGL through much of the TAF period with ocnl
breaks. NE to E breeze near 10 knots coast with lesser speeds
interior and potential for variable winds at MCO/LEE/ISM this
afternoon. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop MCO northward aft 08Z
through 14Z-16Z then VFR conds return. West winds increase Wed
aft 16Z with gusts 20-24 knots which will produce some crosswind
issues at MCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 54 66 49 60 / 30 30 50 40
MCO 58 69 53 60 / 30 20 60 40
MLB 60 72 53 65 / 30 30 50 50
VRB 61 74 53 67 / 30 30 40 60
LEE 55 67 50 59 / 20 20 60 30
SFB 56 68 51 60 / 30 20 60 40
ORL 58 68 52 60 / 30 20 60 40
FPR 61 75 53 68 / 30 30 40 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

#1257075 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1259 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast have been made. The main
focus will be the arctic air moving in Thursday and beyond.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

2) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday
morning and again Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

A lifting shortwave will move through the area on Wednesday in
advance of a cold front on Thursday. Moisture above 700 mb is
more than sufficient for precip, but dry air in the low levels
will likely impact rain rates and QPF. Light rain will likely be
focused along the coast where isentropic lift is maximized.
Unlikely to see more than a few hundreths of rainfall through
12Z Thursday. Evaporative cooling should keep temperatures in
the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving
through Thursday morning and again Saturday night will bring
well below normal temperatures to the area.

No measurable precipitation is expected through the period.
Cold arctic air will move in behind the first of basically two
fronts Thursday and again this weekend. The coldest lows will
occur Friday and again Sunday mornings when upper teens to lower
20s are expected. Apparent temperatures will be well into the
teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

High confidence in VFR. LLWS is possible tonight as a weak southerly
low level jet develops overhead. This is likely to remain below 20-
25 knots of shear, but could cause some trouble for smaller
aircraft. Clouds increase late in the period ahead of an approaching
shortwave, trending toward MVFR late Wednesday afternoon or
Wednesday evening.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions possible on Wednesday evening with
light rain across portions of the area, best chance along the coast.
VFR returns Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Wednesday... Winds turn southwesterly this afternoon and
this evening, increasing overnight. West to southwest winds on
Wednesday will precede a shortwave moving northeastward through the
afternoon. With clouds increasing late tonight and early Wednesday,
precipitation over the nearshore waters could begin as early as mid
morning.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Strong small craft advisory
conditions are expected Thursday and again this weekend via
strong cold air advection behind a couple of arctic cold fronts.
With the offshore flow being primarily offshore significant
seas will be somewhat limited considering the wind
speeds...mainly 2-4 feet. Some isolated five footers are always
fair game outer waters with the strongest of gusts.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257074 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1202 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- There is a low (15-30%) chance of intermittent light rain or
drizzle late this afternoon into the early nighttime hours
tonight.

- A cold front is expected to pass through the region Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night.

- A Small Craft Advisory is likely for the Lower Texas coastal
waters Wednesday night into Thursday as strong northerly winds
behind the front leads to adverse marine conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A mid-level trough moves eastward over central Texas today,
passing north of our region, with slight upper level divergence
and a weak jet aloft continuing into tonight, generating a low
(15-30%) chance of rain from a line of isolated to scattered
light showers or drizzle, moving east from the Northern Ranchlands
and Mid/Upper RGV this afternoon and exiting the Lower RGV
tonight. Ahead of the line, light northerly winds shift to
southwesterly as the line exits, becoming light westerly by
Wednesday morning and northerly by the evening hours, influenced
by lower level winds shifting ahead of a ridge and cold front
diving into the Southern Plains. The cold front passes through
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night, leading to breezy conditions near and along the
immediate Lower Texas Gulf coast, with northerly winds of around
20-25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Thursday into Friday, winds
subside and become southerly by Friday as a surface high pressure
shifts east from the Southern Plains to the northeastern Gulf.
Another ridge flies southeastward over the Plains on Friday,
sending another cold front, possibly late Friday night into
Saturday, shifting winds out of the northeast through Saturday and
gradually becoming southeasterly by Monday. As moisture rebuilds
into the region next week, there could be an increase in PoPs to
a low (15-30%) chance of rain along the coast Monday, expanding
inland into Tuesday.

Near to slightly below average temperatures today (highs in the 60s)
and tonight (lows in the 40s/50s) become above average on Wednesday
as skies begin to clear and downsloping westerly winds raise highs
into mostly the 70s to near 80 F. Temperatures falling back to
the 40s/50s overnight Wednesday as skies become mainly clear
behind the front, allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Cold
air advection via northerly to northeasterly winds cool
temperatures back to the 60s on Thursday before 70s return on
Friday with morning lows in the 40s/50s continuing into the
weekend.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

There is a low (15-30%) chance of intermittent light rain or
drizzle at KMFE and KHRL this evening into the early nighttime
hours as well as at KBRO late this evening into tonight, mentioned
in the PROB30s, which could result in periods of MVFR ceilings
and/or visibility. Following, there could be a brief period of
LIFR/IFR ceilings around sunrise Wednesday morning due to elevated
moisture. VFR conditions return soon after, with light westerly
winds becoming northwesterly by the afternoon hours with clearing
skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Gentle northerly winds become light westerly winds by Wednesday
morning along with slight (1-2 feet) seas along with a low
(15-20%) chance of patchy light rain or drizzle. Winds turn
northwesterly, enhancing to moderate to fresh late Wednesday
morning into the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is likely
Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front passes through the
Lower Texas coastal waters, bringing strong northerly winds and
moderate (6-8 feet) seas, followed by improving conditions
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Winds become southerly
along with slight (1-2 feet), possibly by Friday morning, with
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continuing through the
weekend with a potential weak cold front Friday night or Saturday
as well as building chances of rain next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 69 53 78 52 / 10 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 68 48 78 46 / 10 20 0 0
MCALLEN 68 51 80 49 / 20 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 44 78 44 / 20 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 59 74 58 / 10 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 51 78 52 / 10 20 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257073 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1249 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model trends continue to favor a more progressive (faster) and
drier solution for the late week system. This translates to a
lower chance for accumulating winter precipitation Thursday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry, while trending breezy and milder today through
Wednesday.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front
Wednesday night, and passes by to the N/NE of the area on
Thursday. Some light precipitation is possible late Wednesday
night, potentially ending as a brief period of snow showers
Thursday morning. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 625 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and trending breezy and milder
today and Wednesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1030mb) is centered over the Gulf
coast, ridging ENE into the local area will build south across
the southeast today, as low pressure over central Canada remains
well north of the local area. SSW return flow becomes a bit
stronger today, allowing for highs to warm up quickly into the
50s under a mainly sunny sky. A few readings around 60 degrees
are possible across south central VA and NE NC. A few clouds
cross the area tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the cold
front associated with the northern stream system, but otherwise
mainly clear and not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s. Despite
some increasing mid to high clouds Wednesday, mild return flow
will provide highs well into the 50s west of the bay again on
Wednesday (low to mid 50s Lower Eastern Shore), with highs near
60 degrees far SE counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold
front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially
ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

00z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for
the late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic
late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream
shortwave traverses the Gulf coast. Our area will be in between
these features, with the resultant subsidence allowing for
rapid drying and therefore lower QPF. There is still a chance
for some light overrunning moisture to cross the area, along and
(mainly) behind the crossing cold front Wed night. Precipitation
will mainly fall in the form of light rain showers. While the
faster arrival of colder air would allow for a changeover to
snow showers as precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning,
it is increasingly apparent that the colder air will be chasing
the departing moisture, with the developing surface low crossing
near of just south of the Mason-Dixon line as it exits to the
NNE. This is a pattern that rarely results in any tangible
snowfall across most of our region. For its part, the latest
NBM remains a bit higher than latest model consensus, likely
still at least in part reflecting the previous model consensus
of this past weekend. Would therefore not be surprised to see
these chances drop off completely as we get closer. Thus, while
some light snow is possible before precipitation tapers off,
have removed any snow accumulations from the digital database
and expect very limited to no impacts from snow with this
system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures
expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry
throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some
light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Becoming rather cold and breezy/windy in strong cold advection
in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage Thursday. Look for
highs to struggle to get out of the 30s N and in the 40s S, even
w/ diminishing cloud cover. Cold w/ lows in the teens and 20s
Thu night. Even as winds diminish, wind chills in the teens are
expected Friday morning. Not quite cold enough for Cold Weather
Advisories but close, and certainly a stark contrast from the
warmer temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

The rest of the extended period will primarily feature below
normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. An upper level
ridge persists across the west coast of North America, keeping
an upper level trough in place from central Canada into the SE
CONUS, with resultant NW flow allowing for another influx of
Arctic air in the wake of a second, reinforcing Arctic frontal
passage over the weekend. Guidance is still keying in on a pair
of weak disturbances, one ahead of and one just behind that next
strong cold frontal passage. At this point, the "best" chance
for any precipitation looks to be on Sunday, though PoPs remain
low at only 15-20%. The overall pattern still appears too
progressive to tap into any southern stream moisture,
reinforcing the developing cold, dry pattern. Another round of
cold temperatures follows behind that front for Sunday night
through early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the 18z/13 TAF
period. Clear skies across the area currently, with FEW-SCT high
clouds moving into the northern portions later this afternoon. W/SW
winds around 10 kt will continue through the period, with RIC seeing
some gusts to 15-20 kt this afternoon. SBY may see some gusts to 15-
20 kt after 00z/14. Additionally, some low-level wind shear is
likely this evening into Wednesday afternoon, especially at RIC,
ahead of the next passing cold front. SCT-BKN high clouds will
return across the entire area Wednesday morning with the cloud
shield from the next approaching low pressure system to the north
and associated cold front.

Outlook: The cold front will cross the local area Wednesday evening
through early Thursday with some light rain showers possible. A
brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be possible early Thu
morning, as a secondary front crosses the region, ushering in a much
colder airmass for the late week period into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions expected tonight due to gusty SW winds.

- A series of cold fronts will cross the region late this week
with strong SCA conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

High pressure is situated south of the waters this morning. SW winds
are generally 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt, but these
winds will subside later this morning into this afternoon. The
aforementioned high translates offshore by this evening as strong
low pressure advances through SE Canada, tightening the pressure
gradient over the area. In addition, a SW low-level jet still looks
to overspread the waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Southerly
flow picks up again this afternoon but should remain sub-SCA until
~00z/7 PM this evening. After 00z, winds become SW and increase to
15-20 kt on the Chesapeake Bay with some potential for 20-25 kt
sustained winds on the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt are also expected. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles
through mid-morning Wednesday. Sub-SCA SW flow should then prevail
later Wednesday into the first part of Wednesday night. A strong
cold front is then expected to swing through the region early
Thursday morning as low pressure develops over New England. This
front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW, along with a
substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt for most of the
waters. These elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as
cold air advection maximizes. An additional round of Small Craft
Advisories are very likely during this period. While forecasted
gusts currently fall just shy of Gale-force, cannot rule this out on
the ocean and will continue to monitor over the next few forecast
cycles. Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning before
elevated SW flow potentially returns Friday night/Saturday morning
ahead of another cold front. The current model consensus pushes this
front through overnight Saturday and additional SCA headlines are
probable as winds become NW.

Seas are 2-3.5 ft this morning, with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas
and waves increase to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, tonight
through Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return early
Thursday morning and continue into Thursday night in the wake
of the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.

&&

$$

#1257072 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1246 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Several Freeze Events through Early Next Week. Friday Morning:
Hard Freeze Inland & Coastal Light Freeze Likely

- Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the teens to low 20s Possible.
Consecutive Nights of Inland Freezes Fri Night through Next Tue Night

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Force Gusts Thu & Thu Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon...Partly sunny skies with temps closer to seasonable
values for mid January in the lower 60s SE GA and mid/upper 60s for
NE FL and around 60F for Atlantic Coastal Areas. North winds much
lighter than yesterday around 10 mph or so.

Tonight...Increasing cloudiness from the south and west overnight as
a broad surface forms offshore of the FL Atlantic coast as a longer
wave mid/upper level trough deepens across the western Gulf. Min
temps not as cool with lows in the mid/upper 30 across inland SE GA
and 40s to lower 50s elsewhere and will likely bottom out around
midnight to 3am then hold steady or even nudge upwards towards
morning as clouds continue to increase, which should also prevent
any significant fog formation. A few light showers and sprinkles
will also be possible overnight mainly across northeast Florida as
the surface low that develops near the southeast FL Atlantic coast
tracks northward, east of the local area, into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave will quickly traverse across the region on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, just a piece of energy associated
with a deepening longwave trough over the south/central US. Despite
the mid and upper level forcing, rain chances with this feature will
be quite limited given the ongoing drought as well as limited layer
moisture. However, a few light showers/sprinkles will likely
traverse from west to east during the afternoon and evening, with
rain chances around the 15 to 20 % range. With plenty of cloud cover
and this feature acting as a weak pseudo cold front, high temps
will be a bit cooler on average area wide: ranging from the mid
to upper 50s over interior southeast GA to the low to mid 60s
elsewhere.

Main portion of the deepening/southeastward digging upper
trough moves towards the area Wednesday Night and across the
region through Thursday, with an accompanying strong cold front
traversing eastward out ahead of the feature. Timing of the
frontal passage is generally as follows: entering southeast GA
around late Wednesday Evening, towards the I-10 corridor by
about early morning Thursday, then clearing the entire region by
about mid to late morning Thursday. Along with
strengthening/gusty northwesterly winds behind the front during
the daytime, a few showers will be once again possible overnight
Wednesday and through the first half of Thursday, mainly across
northeast FL where just a bit more moisture advection will be
expected off the Gulf. Though overall, similar to Wednesday,
moisture is quite limited despite the rather impressive forcing
aloft, and combined with the mostly non-diurnal timing of the
boundary, rain chances will therefore be limited to about the
30-50% chance at most for northeast FL and very low across
southeast GA as much drier air starts to advect into the early
throughout the morning hours. As expected, Thursday will be a
much cooler day with the front moving through during the first
half of the day, with upper 40s to low 50s north and west and
mid to upper 50s south and east.

Thursday Night will feature clouds continuing to exit the area with
a cold night in store. Thursday Night will be tricky with respect to
both ambient min temperatures as well as apparent temps/wind chills,
as it will highly depend on how quickly gusty northwesterly breezes
subside as surface high pressure will start to center closer to
right over the area by sunrise Friday Morning. Overall, both
frost/freeze and Cold Weather Advisory products will be in play to
Thursday Night and Friday Morning, which will continue to be
evaluated through tomorrow. Though generally speaking, a hard freeze
is likely inland with highs in the 20s, and in the upper 20s to low
30s closer to the coast and St. Johns Basin which very much keeps
frost/freeze potential in the discussion all the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cool high pressure will remain across the region on Friday before
scooting off to our east Saturday as another frontal system
approaches the region. This next cold front looks to move through
the region Saturday Night into Sunday Morning, which once again
looks like a mostly dry frontal passage. Dry high pressure is then
expected to remain in place Sunday afternoon through the start of
next week, remaining west or northwest of the region which will keep
a cool continental drainage type flow in place. Aside from a
bit of a "warmup" Saturday as the next frontal approaches and
moves through, temps below normal will be expected for most of
the long term. This will include chances for frost/freeze
products each morning inland, and perhaps even closer to the
coast Monday Morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conds through the afternoon with SCT-BKN clouds around
5000 feet or so along with North winds in the 5-10 knot range. These
conditions will continue this evening, with increasing clouds in the
mid levels through the overnight hours, along with low probs of MVFR
CIGS towards sunrise at NE FL TAF sites and will trend in this
direction in the next TAF package. Low rainfall chances at NE FL TAF
sites in the 20-30% range by the 12-18Z time frame, but will likely
leave out of the TAF forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal trough over the waters breaks down this afternoon and
shifts farther offshore as high pressure builds across the the Gulf
coast states. The high will extend across the local waters tonight
into Wednesday as a broad surface low tracks northward well east of
the local Atlantic coast. Westerly winds increase Wednesday night as
a strong cold front moves across the region. Small craft advisory
conditions return Thursday trailing the frontal passage and continue
into Thursday night. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure
builds directly over the local waters. The high will shift southeast
Saturday as a weaker, dry cold front moves across the waters with a
surge in northwest to north winds behind the frontal passage late
Saturday into Sunday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday
NE FL Low Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Areas of low dispersions Today
-Areas of high dispersions Thursday

High pressure over the southeast US will sink southward into the
Gulf today, keeping winds generally out of the north to northwest.
Winds will be strongest near the coast and St. Johns River Basin
thanks to a coastal trough that will weaken throughout the day.
Winds above the surface and therefore transport winds will be
weak today, resulting in mainly low/poor daytime dispersions
today. Lingering dry airmass will create MinRH values of 22-27
percent over inland Georgia northwest of about US84. Wednesday,
west-southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching front
resulting in good dispersions. Light scattered showers will be
possible as a weak front moves through the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, though Thunder is not expected. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop in the wake of the front bringing
high dispersions area-wide on Thursday. A cold and dry airmass
filters in for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the
20s. Elevated Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast
Georgia on Thursday due to breezy winds and low RHs.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
over the next several days. A widespread freeze is forecast for
Thursday night, including areas of frost as well. A light inland
freeze will be likely each night for several nights beginning Friday
Night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 36 57 36 / 0 10 30 10
SSI 60 44 61 42 / 0 10 20 10
JAX 64 45 64 42 / 0 10 20 10
SGJ 64 49 65 47 / 10 30 20 30
GNV 66 47 66 44 / 0 10 20 30
OCF 68 49 67 45 / 0 20 20 50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257071 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1118 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Cold temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. Sub-
freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the area,
especially Thursday night and over the weekend.

- Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area
Wednesday night and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions
for small craft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Another cool and dry day is expected for today as high pressure
lingers across the area. This high will push southward into the
Gulf and weaken as our next reinforcing cold front sweeps through
the area Wednesday night. Looking aloft, a southern stream
shortwave trough, located over western Texas will quickly approach
the local area by tonight. Winds aloft will briefly turn
southwesterly as it approaches. Although moisture return is still
quite limited (PWATs remain below an inch), there may be enough
forcing to squeeze out a few isolated to widely scattered showers
as the trough passes overhead during the overnight hours. With the
cold airmass still in place, expect a very light, overrunning
rain. By the afternoon, longwave troughing diving southward from
Canada will phase with the southern stream shortwave and push to
our east by Wednesday night. This trough will help to send the
aforementioned cold front through our area. Once again, a few
light rain showers cannot be ruled out as the front pushes
through. Behind it, another cold, dry airmass filters in from the
north as high pressure builds in. Highs for today and Wednesday
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight will dip into
the upper 30s to low 40s. After the front passes through Wednesday
night, temperatures on Thursday will crash into the mid to upper
40s for highs and the low to mid 20s for lows Although winds
Thursday night look to be rather light, apparent temperatures may
get close to our Cold Weather Advisory criteria. We`ll keep an eye
on this potential over the coming days.

The second half of the period will be strikingly similar to the
first half. By Friday and Saturday, highs will rebound to the upper
50s to low 60s, with lows Friday night ranging from the mid 30s
inland to the low 40s along the coast. Another longwave trough is
set to dig southward from Canada, helping to send yet another
reinforcing cold front through our local area Saturday into Saturday
night. Limited moisture return should keep PoPs low, although would
not be surprised to see a few isolated showers pop up. After the
front passes through temperatures drop once again, with highs Sunday
and Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into the
20s. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through much of the
period, with a brief bump to Moderate expected Wednesday night for
our western Florida Panhandle beaches. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions expected the rest of the day through the evening. A
passing system is expected to bring local drops to MVFR levels
late tonight into Wednesday morning, Easterly winds of 5 to 10
knots this afternoon will shift to southerly overnight, then
westerly Wednesday morning.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to northerly flow will
shift westerly tonight. This westerly flow will increase on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, followed by a moderate to
strong offshore flow Wednesday night through Thursday in the wake
of the front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for
Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds will gradually decrease
Thursday night, becoming a light to moderate onshore flow on
Friday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 60 41 60 34 / 0 40 20 10
Pensacola 59 45 61 37 / 10 40 30 20
Destin 58 47 61 39 / 0 40 30 20
Evergreen 61 39 59 32 / 0 40 20 20
Waynesboro 58 40 57 29 / 0 40 20 10
Camden 58 39 56 30 / 0 40 30 20
Crestview 61 37 61 35 / 0 40 30 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257070 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1222 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Several Freeze Events through Early Next Week. Friday Morning Hard
Freeze Inland & Coastal Light Freeze Likely

- Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the teens to low 20s Possible.
Consecutive Nights of Inland Freezes Fri Night through Next Tue Night

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Force Gusts Thu & Thu Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon...Partly sunny skies with temps closer to seasonable
values for mid January in the lower 60s SE GA and mid/upper 60s for
NE FL and around 60F for Atlantic Coastal Areas. North winds much
lighter than yesterday around 10 mph or so.

Tonight...Increasing cloudiness from the south and west overnight as
a broad surface forms offshore of the FL Atlantic coast as a longer
wave mid/upper level trough deepens across the western Gulf. Min
temps not as cool with lows in the mid/upper 30 across inland SE GA
and 40s to lower 50s elsewhere and will likely bottom out around
midnight to 3am then hold steady or even nudge upwards towards
morning as clouds continue to increase, which should also prevent
any significant fog formation. A few light showers and sprinkles
will also be possible overnight mainly across northeast Florida as
the surface low that develops near the southeast FL Atlantic coast
tracks northward, east of the local area, into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conds through the afternoon with SCT-BKN clouds around
5000 feet or so along with North winds in the 5-10 knot range. These
conditions will continue this evening, with increasing clouds in the
mid levels through the overnight hours, along with low probs of MVFR
CIGS towards sunrise at NE FL TAF sites and will trend in this
direction in the next TAF package. Low rainfall chances at NE FL TAF
sites in the 20-30% range by the 12-18Z time frame, but will likely
leave out of the TAF forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal trough over the waters breaks down this afternoon and
shifts farther offshore as high pressure builds across the the Gulf
coast states. The high will extend across the local waters tonight
into Wednesday as a broad surface low tracks northward well east of
the local Atlantic coast. Westerly winds increase Wednesday night as
a strong cold front moves across the region. Small craft advisory
conditions return Thursday trailing the frontal passage and continue
into Thursday night. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure
builds directly over the local waters. The high will shift southeast
Saturday as a weaker, dry cold front moves across the waters with a
surge in northwest to north winds behind the frontal passage late
Saturday into Sunday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday
NE FL Low Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Areas of low dispersions Today
-Areas of high dispersions Thursday

High pressure over the southeast US will sink southward into the
Gulf today, keeping winds generally out of the north to northwest.
Winds will be strongest near the coast and St. Johns River Basin
thanks to a coastal trough that will weaken throughout the day.
Winds above the surface and therefore transport winds will be
weak today, resulting in mainly low/poor daytime dispersions
today. Lingering dry airmass will create MinRH values of 22-27
percent over inland Georgia northwest of about US84. Wednesday,
west-southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching front
resulting in good dispersions. Light scattered showers will be
possible as a weak front moves through the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, though Thunder is not expected. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop in the wake of the front bringing
high dispersions area-wide on Thursday. A cold and dry airmass
filters in for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the
20s. Elevated Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast
Georgia on Thursday due to breezy winds and low RHs.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
over the next several days. A widespread freeze is forecast for
Thursday night, including areas of frost as well. A light inland
freeze will be likely each night for several nights beginning Friday
Night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 36 57 36 48 / 10 30 10 0
SSI 46 61 43 53 / 10 20 10 10
JAX 45 64 42 56 / 10 20 10 10
SGJ 49 65 47 57 / 30 20 30 20
GNV 47 66 44 57 / 10 20 30 20
OCF 49 67 45 57 / 20 20 50 20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257069 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:21 PM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1217 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Occasional showers continue today favoring east coast metro
areas.

- Hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic will improve today.

- Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula on
Thursday, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased
rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overcast skies and light shower activity continues through this
afternoon and potentially the evening as well due to a lingering
frontal boundary to the south over the Florida Straits. This is
leading to cloudy skies and stratiform rain over SE Florida.
Rainfall rates are very light, so no major hazards will occur.
High temperatures will struggle to rise given the ample cloud
cover and light rain, likely only reaching the low to mid 70s for
most areas, but especially for the east coast metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Latest ensembles and global model solutions show a decaying sfc
boundary lingering over SoFlo today, and maybe lifting a little
northward. This will require keeping some POPs through early this
evening, 20-30 percent, favoring the eastern side of SoFlo. 00Z MFL
sounding and model data keep PWATs in the 1.3-1.5" range, for which
potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 1" still remains in the
forecast.

By Wednesday, models show a mid lvl shortwave feature moving around
the base of a deepening trough over the SE CONUS. Both systems are
shown migrating eastward, with overall synoptic flow veering more
southwestward/westward by the afternoon hours. This will further
focus highest chances of rain over the Atlantic coastline and
around the Broward/Palm Beach metro areas. Meanwhile, a more
robust sfc cold front will be pushed southward towards northern
Florida by late Wednesday.

High temperatures for the short term should remain in the upper 70s
to near 80, with overnight lows tonight mainly in the low 60s, with
some mid 60s around the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Model consensus depict a FROPA reaching the area on Thursday, with
rain chances increasing in the Wed night-Thu morning time frame
ahead of the front. Latest timing with this feature places the best
chances of showers during the mid/late morning hours on Thursday
with scattered to numerous showers possible. In general, dynamic
support seem to remain poor as the parent trough/low complex will
continue to pull NE into the eastern seaboard. And with prevailing
cloud cover, the daytime heating component should remain weak enough
to keep mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast attm. This,
however, will continue to be revised and updated as necessary.
50-70 POPs remain in the forecast for Thursday morning.

Winds veer northward Thursday night into Friday as broad high
pressure spreads across the SE CONUS, triggering another cold/dry
air advection event. Coldest temperatures with this robust cold air
mass are expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas
dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas
in the low-mid 30s. Friday afternoon will also remain fairly cool
for being SoFlo, with highs struggling to hit the mid-upper 60s.

Temperatures then gradually warm up during the weekend, but still
remaining around the low 70s in general. Then by Monday, models seem
to suggest another possible cool down with a front approaching the
area. There is still a lot of uncertainty in long range guidance, so
the forecast philosophy beyond the weekend will continue to be
updated with new guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs continue for the east coast terminals this afternoon
with no signs of clearing until tonight. Winds will be out of the
east or east-northeast around 10 kts through this evening before
becoming variable overnight. Light SHRA remains likely for several
more hours at least for KMIA, KTMB, and KOPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will continue until later this morning,
then conditions will quickly subside and remain below highlight
criteria through the middle of the week. A frontal passage is
expected to bring another round of hazardous-level winds and seas
for the Thursday night-Friday timeframe.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

High risk of rip currents expected to continue across the
Atlantic coastline until this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 67 79 63 76 / 20 30 10 50
West Kendall 62 80 59 76 / 20 20 20 50
Opa-Locka 66 80 62 76 / 30 30 20 50
Homestead 66 80 62 77 / 20 30 10 50
Fort Lauderdale 66 79 62 74 / 30 30 20 50
N Ft Lauderdale 66 79 62 74 / 40 30 20 50
Pembroke Pines 64 80 61 75 / 30 30 20 50
West Palm Beach 65 78 59 73 / 40 30 20 50
Boca Raton 65 80 60 75 / 40 30 20 50
Naples 64 75 63 72 / 30 20 60 80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257068 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:21 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1113 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A few showers may brush the island chain over the next few days.
There is the potential for slight chance of thunder through
Thursday, though, the better risk is across the marine area.

-A strong cold front will move through the Keys on Thursday. This
will bring a period of breezy to windy conditions to the Keys
along with strong to potentially near gale breezes to the Florida
Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are becoming
increasingly likely later this week.

-In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier
conditions for late week through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
KBYX has had a busy morning with scattered showers throughout the
Straits of Florida. These showers have started to move closer to
the island chain, with even a few lightning strikes being
detected about 10 to 15 miles to the south. Though most of these
showers are surrounding the Middle Keys, they have not amounted
to much rainfall. Temperatures across land are in the mid 70s and
similar to yesterday, mostly cloudy skies will keep the
temperatures near that for the day. Winds along the Reef are near
10 knots outside of convection currently. For the rest of the
day, showers will continue to drift throughout the coastal waters
with a majority of those being light and brief, but a few lightning
strikes cannot be fully ruled out. The Coastal Water Forecast was
updated to include isolated thunderstorms in the Straits of
Florida for this afternoon and tonight, elsewhere, no changes were
made to the update package.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
KBYX radar has remained active all night with the shower activity
mostly across the Straits of Florida. However, occasionally a few
showers have moved across the Upper Keys, especially near Key
Largo. MRMS data over the last 3 hours show estimated rainfall
amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall in
association with these showers across the Upper Keys. The heaviest
amounts remain across the central Straits where upwards of three
tenths of inch were estimated due to heavier activity. GOES 19
Nighttime Microphysics shows partly cloudy skies across the Keys
with the most robust cloud cover across the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the
lower 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
An elongated surface ridge remains in place across the Southeast
U.S. early this morning. This is promoting mainly northeast
breezes of 10 to 15 knots at marine platforms surrounding the
Island Chain.

.FORECAST...
The surface ridge currently across the Southeast U.S. will
continue to drift southeastward through tonight while weakening.
This will result in light to gentle breezes during the day
becoming mainly light for tonight. High moisture for this time of
the year remains in place across the Keys leading to chances PoPs
for the next several forecast periods. The exception will be
tonight when rain chances drop to slight due to a subtle dip in
moisture. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated
PWATs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches across the Keys which is between the
75th and 90th percentile for the date. In addition, a pre-frontal
trough will approach the Keys Wednesday/Wednesday night. Modest
instability, plenty of moisture, and a trigger being the pre-
frontal trough will yield the potential for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. The better risk for a thunderstorm will remain
across the marine area where the greater instability, moisture,
and lift will be. Latest statistical guidance has backed off on
the idea of thunder across the area, however, confidence wasn`t
high enough this update to remove it just yet. Most likely this
will be scrutinized period by period. One of the other reasons for
not removing just yet is that we will have some upper level
forcing this go around which we typically don`t always see in the
Keys.

The main show arrives Thursday when a strong cold front will usher
in Florida winter for the next several days and through the length
of the extended. Temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble
Thursday night. Overnight lows are expected to be 50 to 55 for
Thursday night with daytime highs Friday only managing 60 to 65
degrees. The air conditioners will be able to get a well deserved
break for late week through at least the middle of next week.
Accompanying the frontal passage, expect a rapid surge in breezes
across all the Florida Keys with breezy, becoming windy conditions
anticipated along the Island Chain. For the marine area, the
potential exists for a window of near gale breezes. The peak of
the wind surge right now looks to be Thursday afternoon and
evening before gradually slackening thereafter. Breezes will
originally be westerly before shifting to the northwest to north
overnight and then north by Friday morning. Breezes rapidly
slacken by Friday afternoon as the gradient collapses. The cold
front will push out any residual moisture resulting in a dry
forecast from Thursday night through the extended.

Another reinforcing front may press through the Keys sometime
Sunday/Sunday night keeping the chill going. Daytime highs through
the period will be near 70 degrees and overnight lows in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Dew points will also have a hard
time reaching 60 degrees after the front passes through on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a surface ridge
stretching across the southeastern U.S. will weaken and slide
southeastward through tonight. This will promote slackening
breezes to light to gentle. Thereafter, a pre- frontal trough will
slide across the region on Wednesday, briefly clocking winds
around to the southeast initially, then southwest, and eventually
west to northwest. This will be followed by a second, stronger
cold front on Thursday with a round of strong to potentially near
gale breezes. Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly
likely later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Scattered showers are currently just south of MTH,
therefore, VCSH included at that terminal. Direct impacts of
showers could briefly lower conditions to MVFR and TEMPOs will be
included if that is expected. Near surface winds are northeasterly
at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257067 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
907 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
In the near term, no major changes coming down the track as we
approach 7 AM EST. Updated 12Z TAF discussion below. All other
previous discussions still apply.

Forecast lows Thursday night have been adjusted colder, but wind
chills are little changed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues through tonight, with high
temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal.

2) Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system
moves overhead.

3) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday
morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through tonight, with high
temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal.

Some good radiational cooling has occurred just past midnight,
as temperatures continue to dip towards the 20s. Some cirrus
that is streaming in from the west has thickened up over the
last hour or so, which I believe has already started to hinder
the cooling. May need to back off on some of the hourly
temperature forecasts as we head through the rest of this
morning.

Elsewhere, quiet forecast still in store through tonight. A
shortwave moves through late this morning, but doesn`t really do
much at all to change the sensible weather. Plenty of sunshine on
the way, with highs creeping up into the upper 50s to near 60. This
will solidly be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday, about a degree
or two above normal for mid-January.

Southwesterly flow starts building in tonight ahead of the next
disturbance. This causes low temperatures to be considerably warmer
than the last couple of nights, generally in the mid-to-upper 30s
inland, lower 40s at the coast.here.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level
system moves overhead.

A southern stream shortwave will be pulled northeastward and
across the Carolinas on Wednesday by a deep upper level trough
developing across the Great Lakes. This shortwave will carry a
slug of mid level moisture with it, visible on model 700 mb
progs between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Isentropic
analysis within the moisture-bearing layer shows only modest
upglide, but still likely enough to produce light rain with less
than 0.10 inches expected. Forecast PoPs have been tweaked
higher to 40-50 percent along the coast centered on Wednesday
afternoon.

Very dry air between the mid level cloud base and the surface means
there could be evaporational cooling as precipitation begins. I`ve
kept Wednesday`s forecast highs near the NBM for now, but there`s
certainly potential that highs will come in lower than is
currently forecast if precipitation is more widespread or
heavier in intensity.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through
Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures.

Strong cold advection behind Thursday`s early morning arctic
cold front will continue through the day and into Thursday
night. Although yesterday morning`s models showed a decrease in
wind speed late Thursday night, the new 00z models arriving now
show this decrease in wind even more acutely. This should allow
a radiational inversion to develop, especially inland, and we`ve
accordingly pushed forecast lows down another couple of
degrees. We`re now expecting lows in the upper teens with some
lower 20s near the coast. This looks to be the second coldest
arctic outbreak of the winter (so far) behind the December 15,
2025 event.

In terms of public impact, lower forecast temperatures are being
offset by lighter forecast winds. Forecast wind chill temperatures
are still near the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather
Advisory late Thursday night/Friday morning.

Although model spread widens by the weekend, a second arctic cold
front appears likely to arrive across the eastern Carolinas either
Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will be followed by another
shot of well below normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Calm winds
in place at all terminals, which will continue for the next
several hours. Light breeze at 5-7 kts out of the SSW builds in
by 17-19Z this afternoon, decreasing slightly to 4-6 kts by
sunset.

Extended Outlook...VFR through perhaps midday Wednesday. Some
restrictions are possible late Wednesday and Thursday. VFR returns
Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...NNW winds around 5 kts back to the southwest by
late this afternoon, increasing towards 10 kts by sunset. Winds veer
slightly to the WSW overnight tonight, increasing more to 10-15 kts.
Seas remain at 1-2 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Breezy southwest winds as strong
as 20-25 knots Wednesday night will precede a strong arctic cold
front that will push off the North and South Carolina coastline
early Thursday morning. Northwest winds behind the front on Thursday
into Thursday night should average 20 to perhaps 25 knots. There is
a good chance a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the winds
both ahead of and behind the cold front.

High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast should lead to
diminishing wind speeds Friday, however the high should push
offshore Friday afternoon or evening with winds shifting
southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots. Winds could increase
further on Saturday when a second period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions could occur ahead of the next front approaching from the
west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257066 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:45 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
829 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 828 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Below normal temperatures are expected for several days behind a
strong cold front on Wednesday. Friday morning will be the
coldest this week with a medium to high chance (60-80 percent)
of an inland hard freeze (25F or lower).

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop behind the next cold
front on Wednesday night and Thursday with a medium to high
chance (60-80 percent) of gale force northwest wind gusts west
of Apalachicola.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Only minor tweaks were made to the temperature and dew point trends
this morning to acount for some slightly colder temperatures.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A high pressure ridge axis across the area today will lead to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with just some passing high
cloud cover. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper
50s to mid 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Two reinforcing cold frontal passages are expected. The first one
will arrive starting late Wednesday, and the second one will
arrive on Saturday or Saturday night. There will probably be some
scattered light showers in advance of the front on Wednesday, but
moisture will be limited with both fronts. Any rain that occurs
will be on the light side. Breezy conditions are likely on
Thursday behind the first front with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph
range.

The main impact to the local area will be cold temperatures. There
is a medium to high chance of a hard freeze (25F or lower) for
inland areas on Friday morning. Additional light freezes are
expected for portions of the area each morning thereafter into
early next week.

Despite all the cold temperatures, there is currently no wintry
precip expected in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Smoke from a nearby prescribed burn has lead to restrictions
less than a mile in haze at TLH early this morning. As of this
time, haze has subsided, but cannot rule out a brief return.

Surface high pressure ridge axis gradually moves south of the
terminals today. Light and variable winds become north today
with a tendency to become more westerly at DHN and ECP during
the afternoon. With the weak pressure gradient in place, winds
generally AOB 5 kts. VFR w/SCT cirrus becoming BKN late today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A high pressure ridge axis will move south directly across the
waters by this evening, bringing a continued decrease in wind.
Once high pressure moves further south on Wednesday, westerly
breezes will freshen in advance of a strong reinforcing cold
frontal passage on Wednesday night. Northwesterly gusts near gale
force will follow that front on Thursday with the strongest winds
west of Apalachicola. Winds will quickly decrease on Thursday
night and Friday as a high center passes directly across the
waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the
waters on Saturday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The high pressure center at the heart of the existing dry air mass
will pass directly across the districts today. This will result in
a combination of places with critically low humidity below 25
percent and low daytime dispersion due to the lack of wind and low
mixing heights. On Wednesday, dispersion will increase markedly
with higher values resulting from development of gusty southwest
winds in advance of a strong reinforcing cold frontal passage late
Wednesday. Strong gusty northerly winds will follow that front on
Thursday, supporting another day of high dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days. Any rain
that falls in the next week will not be hydrologically significant.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 41 60 42 / 0 10 30 10
Panama City 61 45 63 42 / 0 30 20 30
Dothan 59 41 59 37 / 0 20 20 10
Albany 60 38 59 37 / 0 10 20 10
Valdosta 62 39 59 40 / 0 10 40 10
Cross City 64 44 64 43 / 0 10 30 40
Apalachicola 60 45 61 44 / 0 30 40 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257065 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
710 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier conditions expected through the week.

- Showers are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The day is off to a cool and cloudy start. The 12Z sounding shows a
layer of moisture below 800mb (approx. 6.5kft) with a strong dry
layer above from 800mb to 700mb before moisture returns. The
expectation is that this trapped moisture will largely remain in
place today, suggesting mostly cloudy skies will continue. This is
in response to the weak surface trough over the state.

As such, the current forecast looks on track, with no changes needed
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGs are the main aviation concern until the next front
moves through on Thursday. The window where CIGs are favored to be
lowest will generally run from 06Z to approximately 14Z. However,
these low CIGs still have the potential to occur at anytime. When
the front moves through on Thursday, the window for low CIGs will
extend until after the front passes. Additionally, some convection
as well as gusty winds will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The front that pushed through on Sunday is still lingering just
south of Florida. This front will lift slightly north today allowing
for some extra cloud cover over the area. A shower or two will also
be possible in SW Florida. By Wednesday we will see a much stronger
cold front heading our way. This front will push through Wednesday
Night bringing scattered showers as it passes by. Colder air will
start to filter in behind the front with highs north of I-4 staying
below 60 degrees. Our coldest morning so far this season will be on
Friday. For our inland areas we could see freezing temperatures
as far south as Hardee and Desoto Counties with the Nature Coast
getting into the mid to upper 20`s. Highs on Friday will stay in
the 50`s for almost all of us except SW Florida which could touch
60 degrees for an hour or two in the afternoon.

We will slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday before another cold
front slides through on Sunday morning. We won`t be seeing any rain
with this front but it will bring temperatures back down into the
30`s for most of us Monday morning. Highs on Monday will once again
be stuck in the 50`s north of I-4 with the low 60`s everywhere
else.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Winds will remain out of the north for Tuesday and Wednesday with
speeds around 10 knots. We will see a strong cold front slide
through Wednesday night that will bring some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the Gulf. Behind it winds will increase
quickly peaking at 20 to 25 knots by Thursday afternoon. Winds
will not remain that high for long as high pressure starts to move
overhead. This will start to decrease the winds late Thursday
night and by Friday afternoon should only be around 5 knots. Winds
will shift more easterly as the high pressure moves away on
Saturday between 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

We will see dry and cooler conditions for our Tuesday and
the early part of Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through
the area Wednesday night bringing scattered showers to the area.
Behind the front we will see breezy conditions on Thursday with gust
to 20 to 25 mph. Drier air will filter in Thursday night creating
critical RHs by Friday afternoon but winds will have calmed down by
then. This means a Red Flag Warning should not be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 58 69 57 / 10 10 20 80
FMY 78 63 75 60 / 10 20 10 60
GIF 73 58 70 54 / 10 30 20 60
SRQ 72 58 70 57 / 10 20 10 80
BKV 70 51 68 47 / 10 10 20 70
SPG 70 60 70 60 / 10 20 20 80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

#1257064 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
603 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

* Low temperatures just below freezing are forecast for most
places that are generally along/north of the I-10/12 corridor
Tuesday morning. Freezing temperatures are forecast to last
several hours Tuesday morning moving above after sunrise. Residents
should take action to protect sensitive vegetation and ensure
outdoor pets have access to warm shelter.

* According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly
half of all home fires occur between the months of December,
January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the
use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and
fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this cold
snap should safety recommendations - such as using a screen and
keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring
all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and
placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable
materials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A slow warming trend will start Tue but will only get into the low
to mid 60s by Wed before dropping again to the low 30s north and
low 40s south Wed night. This cold front will be able to produce
some cloud cover and cloud depths enough to produce some light
rainfall in a few locations. This is all it will be able to
produce since cloud depth will not be anywhere close enough to
produce lightning. Whatever rain it is able to produce will be
fleeting mainly Tue night into early Wed. But there is a second
chance of a few sprinkles as the secondary frontal sfc catches the
first late Wed. This is when the surge of coolest air moves
through. The air won`t be frigid but it will be cooler than
where we are now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

We should only make it to around 50F for Thu. Then the coldest
night for this system will be Thu night into Fri morning with lows
in the upper 20s north to mid 30s south. It`s possible to reach
the 60s as we warm up after this front but it won`t last long as
another in a line of cold air dumps moves through by the weekend.
This is the one that is most questionable at the moment and could
go either way, wet and stormy or just a few showers moving
through. The more detailed features with this won`t be deciphered
until Thu at the earliest. We are pretty confident that this front
will not take its time in moving through. We should see another
warming trend after that as we move into the new week and yet
another cold air surge from the north by Tue. This one is
questionable to move through, and since it is so far out, there
are no clues to if or when. But with the pattern as it is, we are
fairly sure that another front moving toward the area in that time
frame is a pretty good bet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Terminals remain in VFR status and will through the day. Overnight
clouds will begin to build and lower with MVFR cigs after
midnight possible along with a few light showers. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Winds will slowly lower through Tue while a surface high moves into
the northern gulf waters late Tue. A west wind will begin as the
high moves SE by Wednesday. West winds will rise ahead of a
reinforcing cold front moving through late Wed bringing winds around
to NW 20-25kt Wed into Thursday. This time frame will likely need
small craft advisory headlines again. NW winds will begin to ease
again late Thursday into Friday. Light and variable winds early
Friday will begin to shift to onshore flow through the day and rise
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 59 43 60 32 / 0 30 10 10
BTR 60 45 65 35 / 0 30 0 0
ASD 60 43 64 35 / 0 40 0 0
MSY 60 47 67 41 / 0 30 0 0
GPT 59 46 63 37 / 0 40 10 0
PQL 60 41 63 34 / 0 40 10 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257063 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
552 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Cold temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. Sub-
freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the area,
especially Thursday night and over the weekend.

- Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area
Wednesday night and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions
for small craft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Another cool and dry day is expected for today as high pressure
lingers across the area. This high will push southward into the
Gulf and weaken as our next reinforcing cold front sweeps through
the area Wednesday night. Looking aloft, a southern stream
shortwave trough, located over western Texas will quickly approach
the local area by tonight. Winds aloft will briefly turn
southwesterly as it approaches. Although moisture return is still
quite limited (PWATs remain below an inch), there may be enough
forcing to squeeze out a few isolated to widely scattered showers
as the trough passes overhead during the overnight hours. With the
cold airmass still in place, expect a very light, overrunning
rain. By the afternoon, longwave troughing diving southward from
Canada will phase with the southern stream shortwave and push to
our east by Wednesday night. This trough will help to send the
aforementioned cold front through our area. Once again, a few
light rain showers cannot be ruled out as the front pushes
through. Behind it, another cold, dry airmass filters in from the
north as high pressure builds in. Highs for today and Wednesday
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight will dip into
the upper 30s to low 40s. After the front passes through Wednesday
night, temperatures on Thursday will crash into the mid to upper
40s for highs and the low to mid 20s for lows Although winds
Thursday night look to be rather light, apparent temperatures may
get close to our Cold Weather Advisory criteria. We`ll keep an eye
on this potential over the coming days.

The second half of the period will be strikingly similar to the
first half. By Friday and Saturday, highs will rebound to the upper
50s to low 60s, with lows Friday night ranging from the mid 30s
inland to the low 40s along the coast. Another longwave trough is
set to dig southward from Canada, helping to send yet another
reinforcing cold front through our local area Saturday into Saturday
night. Limited moisture return should keep PoPs low, although would
not be surprised to see a few isolated showers pop up. After the
front passes through temperatures drop once again, with highs Sunday
and Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into the
20s. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through much of the
period, with a brief bump to Moderate expected Wednesday night for
our western Florida Panhandle beaches. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, along with
light winds. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to northerly flow will
shift westerly tonight. This westerly flow will increase on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, followed by a moderate to
strong offshore flow Wednesday night through Thursday in the wake
of the front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for
Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds will gradually decrease
Thursday night, becoming a light to moderate onshore flow on
Friday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 60 41 62 36 / 0 30 10 20
Pensacola 60 45 61 39 / 0 40 20 20
Destin 60 46 61 41 / 0 30 20 30
Evergreen 62 39 62 34 / 0 30 20 20
Waynesboro 60 40 60 31 / 0 30 20 10
Camden 59 40 59 31 / 0 20 20 20
Crestview 62 38 60 35 / 0 30 20 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257061 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
638 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reintroduced rain/snow mentions inland along the cold front
Thursday morning, although wintry precip impacts are still not
expected. Small craft advisories issued Tuesday night to
Thursday for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures this morning with a gradual warming trend
today into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow

3) Generally dry cold front moves through early Sunday, with
another surge of cold, dry air behind it

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force
winds possible Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region has allowed for good
radiational cooling conditions this morning with light/calm
winds and clear skies. Lows expected in the mid to upper 20s
inland to 30s along the coast around sunrise. Some inland
locations have even dropped into the lower 20s. NBM temps are
too warm in this scenario and followed closely to MOS guidance
with manual adjustments for the peak radiational cooling
locales.

High pressure slides offshore today with southwest winds
bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to near 60 today
and tomorrow afternoon, which is a few degrees above
climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
will be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue likely
PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not
that impressive with precip amounts which shows around a
quarter of an inch along the coast to little accumulation
inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a rain/snow
mix inland with frontal forcing becoming all rain closer to the
coast along the front, but rain amounts expected to be limited,
only up to a tenth of an inch at best. Any snow mixed in is not
expected to accumulate, and no wintry precip impacts are
expected. Strong CAA develops behind the front later Thursday
morning but it appears this will be a typical cold air chasing
the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon. For this
reason, stepped down from NBM chance snow to slight chance,
with room to step down even further.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday
evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will
be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period
of rain/snow. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs
are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for either
rain or snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn`t
much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip
chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%). NBM called for snow
chances, but with sfc temps in the 40-45F range at that time,
paired with the drier trend, elected to stick with all rain for
the forecast. Behind the front, below average temps and dry
conditions return.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No changes in forecast thinking as VFR conditions are forecast
through the entire period as high pressure builds in from the
southwest. Light and variable to calm winds this morning become
SW`rly at about 5-10 kts with gusts up around 10-15 kts by
midday. These winds will persist into Tue evening before winds
become light and variable once again Tue night. Skies remain
partly cloudy through the period. While currently not in the
TAFs on this update, monitoring the forecast for potential LLWS
impacts in ENC late tonight into Wed morning. While it is a low
threat, some guidance is showing some LLWS impacting portions
of ENC late tonight as a mid level shortwave moves through the
area. If confidence increases in its occurrence, a line for
this may be included in the TAFs in the coming updates.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the
period with high pressure in control. While there is still
uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could
bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has settled across the waters bringing W/SW winds
around 5-15 kt becoming SW later as high moves offshore. Seas
have also laid off, around 2ft across all coastal waters.
Tonight, winds begin to pick up as a low crosses the great lakes
and high pressure sits offshore, tightening the pressure
gradient. This will bring gusts around 25kts for the warmer gulf
stream waters tonight. Issued a SCA for gulf stream waters given
6Z guidance increased confidence in SCA gusts. For now have SCA
going until Friday 00Z, at which point gale force gust chances
increase.

Winds briefly lessen to 15-20 knots Wednesday morning for 3-6
hours before picking back up to 20-30 knots as a low forms
offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing small
craft gusts with this low is along warmer gulf stream waters
with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter
wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions
across the waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high
pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another
cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once
again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Thursday for AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$

#1257062 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
634 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
In the near term, no major changes coming down the track as we
approach 7 AM EST. Updated 12Z TAF discussion below. All other
previous discussions still apply.

Forecast lows Thursday night have been adjusted colder, but wind
chills are little changed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues through tonight, with high
temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal.

2) Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system
moves overhead.

3) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday
morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through tonight, with high
temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal.

Some good radiational cooling has occurred just past midnight,
as temperatures continue to dip towards the 20s. Some cirrus
that is streaming in from the west has thickened up over the
last hour or so, which I believe has already started to hinder
the cooling. May need to back off on some of the hourly
temperature forecasts as we head through the rest of this
morning.

Elsewhere, quiet forecast still in store through tonight. A
shortwave moves through late this morning, but doesn`t really do
much at all to change the sensible weather. Plenty of sunshine on
the way, with highs creeping up into the upper 50s to near 60. This
will solidly be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday, about a degree
or two above normal for mid-January.

Southwesterly flow starts building in tonight ahead of the next
disturbance. This causes low temperatures to be considerably warmer
than the last couple of nights, generally in the mid-to-upper 30s
inland, lower 40s at the coast.here.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level
system moves overhead.

A southern stream shortwave will be pulled northeastward and
across the Carolinas on Wednesday by a deep upper level trough
developing across the Great Lakes. This shortwave will carry a
slug of mid level moisture with it, visible on model 700 mb
progs between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Isentropic
analysis within the moisture-bearing layer shows only modest
upglide, but still likely enough to produce light rain with less
than 0.10 inches expected. Forecast PoPs have been tweaked
higher to 40-50 percent along the coast centered on Wednesday
afternoon.

Very dry air between the mid level cloud base and the surface means
there could be evaporational cooling as precipitation begins. I`ve
kept Wednesday`s forecast highs near the NBM for now, but there`s
certainly potential that highs will come in lower than is
currently forecast if precipitation is more widespread or
heavier in intensity.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through
Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures.

Strong cold advection behind Thursday`s early morning arctic
cold front will continue through the day and into Thursday
night. Although yesterday morning`s models showed a decrease in
wind speed late Thursday night, the new 00z models arriving now
show this decrease in wind even more acutely. This should allow
a radiational inversion to develop, especially inland, and we`ve
accordingly pushed forecast lows down another couple of
degrees. We`re now expecting lows in the upper teens with some
lower 20s near the coast. This looks to be the second coldest
arctic outbreak of the winter (so far) behind the December 15,
2025 event.

In terms of public impact, lower forecast temperatures are being
offset by lighter forecast winds. Forecast wind chill temperatures
are still near the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather
Advisory late Thursday night/Friday morning.

Although model spread widens by the weekend, a second arctic cold
front appears likely to arrive across the eastern Carolinas either
Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will be followed by another
shot of well below normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Calm winds
in place at all terminals, which will continue for the next
several hours. Light breeze at 5-7 kts out of the SSW builds in
by 17-19Z this afternoon, decreasing slightly to 4-6 kts by
sunset.

Extended Outlook...VFR through perhaps midday Wednesday. Some
restrictions are possible late Wednesday and Thursday. VFR returns
Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...NNW winds around 5 kts back to the southwest by
late this afternoon, increasing towards 10 kts by sunset. Winds veer
slightly to the WSW overnight tonight, increasing more to 10-15 kts.
Seas remain at 1-2 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Breezy southwest winds as strong
as 20-25 knots Wednesday night will precede a strong arctic cold
front that will push off the North and South Carolina coastline
early Thursday morning. Northwest winds behind the front on Thursday
into Thursday night should average 20 to perhaps 25 knots. There is
a good chance a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the winds
both ahead of and behind the cold front.

High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast should lead to
diminishing wind speeds Friday, however the high should push
offshore Friday afternoon or evening with winds shifting
southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots. Winds could increase
further on Saturday when a second period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions could occur ahead of the next front approaching from the
west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257060 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
627 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- A couple degrees warmer today with isolated showers, mainly
Cape Canaveral southward

- Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
bringing a brief increase in rain chances

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning
lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially
Friday morning and next Monday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Today-Tonight...An inverted surface trough remains just offshore
this morning while a low cloud deck persists over the northern
half of the area. The most recent cold front to move through ECFL
has settled across the Florida Straits as a stationary front. Current
temperatures range widely from the low/mid 50s north of Orlando
to the upper 60s along the Treasure Coast. Where moisture remains
marginally sufficient today, mainly over the Treasure Coast and
Gulf Stream, isolated showers will be possible. That said, a
majority of the area will stay dry with temperatures warming a few
degrees more compared to yesterday (highs in the low/mid 70s).

Moisture return and the south Florida front moving north helps to
expand 20-30% rain chances northward overnight, but the majority
of activity will be focused out over the Gulf Stream. In other
words, a continuation of isolated showers will simply expand north
toward Cape Canaveral and even the Volusia Coast through daybreak
Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to settle into the mid 50s
north to the low/mid 60s from the Orlando metro to the Treasure
Coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Wednesday morning, a weak cool front looks to
be draped across portions of the Treasure Coast and Gulf Stream
waters, before sliding east of the area by midday. Our focus is on
the next series of cold fronts, approaching central Florida late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 500mb height falls begin in
earnest late Wednesday afternoon as a trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. Rain chances look limited Wednesday, with one batch
of QPF shifting well offshore and models in disagreement on very
light QPF north of Orlando in the afternoon.

We will be waiting on the arrival of a stronger cold front early
Thursday, bringing with it slightly better rain chances (30-55%).
Model guidance lends to a little lower confidence than is typical
at this time range. GFS+AI ensembles point to generally 0.2" or
less of measurable rain between now and the FROPA Thursday
morning, whereas the ECMWF+AI ensembles are more centered around
0.3"-0.4" of rain. Granted, a couple tenths of rain is not a huge
difference with most of the area under D0-D1 (abnormally dry to
moderate drought) conditions. As quickly as rain moves in, it will
move out over the open Atlantic Thursday afternoon.

A westerly breeze Wednesday under a mostly cloudy sky is likely to
keep temperatures a bit cooler, especially north of I-4. Behind
Thursday`s front, noticeably colder and drier will rush southward
supported by a 10-15+ mph wind (gusting 20-25 mph at times,
especially at the coast). Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Wednesday trend down on Thursday, struggling to reach the
60-degree mark Orlando northward. Skies quickly clear Thursday
night, setting the stage for a cold night and brisk wind chill
values.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday
morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not
changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the idea of
temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in
addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south
as Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest
breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a
majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will
be needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds
decrease through the day Friday into early Saturday as high
pressure builds over the peninsula. Despite plenty of sun Friday
afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of the 50s
from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s south).
Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for another
cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight, there is
a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over portions
of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback, climbing into
the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this
front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures
swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the
30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing
temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the
front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with
values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Weak surface trough remains over the nearshore waters through
tonight as N-E winds decrease today. Isolated showers are forecast
along the Treasure Coast and over the Gulf Stream, expanding north
and eastward in time, especially on Wednesday. Seas fall to 3-4
ft today and 2-4 ft Wednesday.

A strong cold front approaches early Thursday morning, quickly
pushing south of the waters by the afternoon. Shower chances
increase to 40-60%, followed by freshening NW winds behind the
front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions gradually expand from
the offshore waters Thursday morning to the remaining marine legs
Thursday afternoon. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt
(esp. offshore) build seas to 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore
Thursday night. The pressure gradient quickly unwinds Friday as
high pressure builds overhead, allowing seas to fall to 3-6 ft
Friday afternoon. Favorable boating conditions return Friday night
and continue through much of Saturday (seas 2-3 ft).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 555 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Lingering MVFR CIGs this morning across the south, mainly at SUA.
Have included prevailing MVFR CIGs through 15Z at that terminal.
Otherwise, VFR through the rest of the day. Northerly winds will
become N/NE this morning and remain around 10 KT before becoming
light and variable around 23/00Z. Guidance is hinting at some
lower clouds developing tonight around 08/09Z. So have included
prevailing MVFR CIGs starting then for MLB northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 55 67 50 / 10 30 30 40
MCO 73 60 68 54 / 10 30 20 50
MLB 74 58 72 52 / 10 30 30 40
VRB 75 59 74 51 / 20 40 30 30
LEE 70 55 67 51 / 10 20 20 50
SFB 72 56 68 52 / 10 30 20 40
ORL 72 59 67 53 / 10 30 20 50
FPR 75 59 75 51 / 20 40 30 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257059 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
625 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model trends continue to favor a more progressive (faster) and
drier solution for the late week system. This translates to a
lower chance for accumulating winter precipitation Thursday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry, while trending breezy and milder today through
Wednesday.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front
Wednesday night, and passes by to the N/NE of the area on
Thursday. Some light precipitation is possible late Wednesday
night, potentially ending as a brief period of snow showers
Thursday morning. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 625 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and trending breezy and milder
today and Wednesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1030mb) is centered over the Gulf
coast, ridging ENE into the local area will build south across
the southeast today, as low pressure over central Canada remains
well north of the local area. SSW return flow becomes a bit
stronger today, allowing for highs to warm up quickly into the
50s under a mainly sunny sky. A few readings around 60 degrees
are possible across south central VA and NE NC. A few clouds
cross the area tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the cold
front associated with the northern stream system, but otherwise
mainly clear and not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s. Despite
some increasing mid to high clouds Wednesday, mild return flow
will provide highs well into the 50s west of the bay again on
Wednesday (low to mid 50s Lower Eastern Shore), with highs near
60 degrees far SE counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold
front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially
ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

00z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for
the late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic
late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream
shortwave traverses the Gulf coast. Our area will be in between
these features, with the resultant subsidence allowing for
rapid drying and therefore lower QPF. There is still a chance
for some light overrunning moisture to cross the area, along and
(mainly) behind the crossing cold front Wed night. Precipitation
will mainly fall in the form of light rain showers. While the
faster arrival of colder air would allow for a changeover to
snow showers as precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning,
it is increasingly apparent that the colder air will be chasing
the departing moisture, with the developing surface low crossing
near of just south of the Mason-Dixon line as it exits to the
NNE. This is a pattern that rarely results in any tangible
snowfall across most of our region. For its part, the latest
NBM remains a bit higher than latest model consensus, likely
still at least in part reflecting the previous model consensus
of this past weekend. Would therefore not be surprised to see
these chances drop off completely as we get closer. Thus, while
some light snow is possible before precipitation tapers off,
have removed any snow accumulations from the digital database
and expect very limited to no impacts from snow with this
system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures
expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry
throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some
light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Becoming rather cold and breezy/windy in strong cold advection
in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage Thursday. Look for
highs to struggle to get out of the 30s N and in the 40s S, even
w/ diminishing cloud cover. Cold w/ lows in the teens and 20s
Thu night. Even as winds diminish, wind chills in the teens are
expected Friday morning. Not quite cold enough for Cold Weather
Advisories but close, and certainly a stark contrast from the
warmer temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

The rest of the extended period will primarily feature below
normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. An upper level
ridge persists across the west coast of North America, keeping
an upper level trough in place from central Canada into the SE
CONUS, with resultant NW flow allowing for another influx of
Arctic air in the wake of a second, reinforcing Arctic frontal
passage over the weekend. Guidance is still keying in on a pair
of weak disturbances, one ahead of and one just behind that next
strong cold frontal passage. At this point, the "best" chance
for any precipitation looks to be on Sunday, though PoPs remain
low at only 15-20%. The overall pattern still appears too
progressive to tap into any southern stream moisture,
reinforcing the developing cold, dry pattern. Another round of
cold temperatures follows behind that front for Sunday night
through early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 625 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals will prevail
through the 12Z/13 TAF period. Light W-SW winds average 5-7 kt
early this morning under a mainly clear sky. Expect SW winds to
increase a bit late this morning, gusting to 15-20 kt by the
afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected across the mid-Atlantic
through midweek. Increasing low-level wind shear is expected
ahead of an approaching cold front late this evening into Wed
afternoon. The front will cross the region Wed evening, with
some light rain showers possible behind the front late Wed
night into Thursday morning. A brief period of sub-VFR
conditions will be possible early Thu morning, as a secondary
front crosses the region, ushering in a much colder airmass for
the late week period into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions expected tonight due to gusty SW winds.

- A series of cold fronts will cross the region late this week
with strong SCA conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

High pressure is situated south of the waters this morning. SW winds
are generally 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt, but these
winds will subside later this morning into this afternoon. The
aforementioned high translates offshore by this evening as strong
low pressure advances through SE Canada, tightening the pressure
gradient over the area. In addition, a SW low-level jet still looks
to overspread the waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Southerly
flow picks up again this afternoon but should remain sub-SCA until
~00z/7 PM this evening. After 00z, winds become SW and increase to
15-20 kt on the Chesapeake Bay with some potential for 20-25 kt
sustained winds on the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt are also expected. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles
through mid-morning Wednesday. Sub-SCA SW flow should then prevail
later Wednesday into the first part of Wednesday night. A strong
cold front is then expected to swing through the region early
Thursday morning as low pressure develops over New England. This
front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW, along with a
substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt for most of the
waters. These elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as
cold air advection maximizes. An additional round of Small Craft
Advisories are very likely during this period. While forecasted
gusts currently fall just shy of Gale-force, cannot rule this out on
the ocean and will continue to monitor over the next few forecast
cycles. Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning before
elevated SW flow potentially returns Friday night/Saturday morning
ahead of another cold front. The current model consensus pushes this
front through overnight Saturday and additional SCA headlines are
probable as winds become NW.

Seas are 2-3.5 ft this morning, with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas
and waves increase to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, tonight
through Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return early
Thursday morning and continue into Thursday night in the wake
of the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

#1257058 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Sprinkles will move through the area Tuesday, with a low chance
of light measurable rain.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one
on Wednesday and another Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A weak southern stream upper low is currently near the Big Bend
region. It will move eastward across the state Tuesday and
Tuesday night as it becomes absorbed into an amplifying trough
across the central and eastern CONUS. Local radar echoes have
been mainly virga so far, but a couple stations near and southwest
of Corpus Christi have reported a trace-0.01" of light rain. That
batch of light rain may brush areas near the coast overnight.
Better lift arrives with the upper low during the day on Tuesday
along with the left-exit region of an upper-level subtropical jet
streak. Mid-levels will be fairly saturated, but dry air will
remain in place at low-levels. Expect at least some sprinkles to
move through during the day with a low chance of light measurable
rain at any given location. Associated cloudcover will knock at
least a couple degrees off of high temperatures.

A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place through
the end of the week and into the weekend, with ridging along the
West Coast and a deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Several
shortwaves will reinforce the eastern CONUS trough. Southeast
Texas will be underneath dry, generally northwesterly flow aloft
along the back side of the trough. Two dry frontal passages are
expected Wednesday afternoon and Friday night with brief warm-ups
prior to the fronts with southwest winds, followed by an increase
in northerly winds behind the fronts. Some de-amplificiation of
the pattern may take place by early next week.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with BKN to OVC mid and high level
clouds passing through the region. There will be a chance of
isolated, light showers developing during the afternoon hours
today. Winds today will be southwesterly around 5-8kt, become
variable overnight, and then return to southwesterly during the
morning on Wednesday. A cold front will be passing through the
region Wednesday afternoon ushering in a north-northwesterly wind
shift.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week,
especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern
half of the the bays. Will maintain the Low Water Advisory in
place, though values will probably fall just short of criteria
(-1 MLLW) Tuesday morning. A Wednesday daytime frontal passage
will push additional water out of the bay, with another Low Water
Advisory likely being needed for Thursday morning. Mariners
should be cognizant of grounding risks.

Light winds and low seas are expected Tuesday with a low chance
for light rain. The next front is expected to push into the waters
Wednesday afternoon with increasing northwest and north winds
filling in behind it Wednesday night into Thursday. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed during this time period.

JDavis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 43 67 37 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 46 68 42 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 60 54 67 47 / 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ335.

&&

$$

#1257057 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
620 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Below normal temperatures are expected for several days behind a
strong cold front on Wednesday. Friday morning will be the
coldest this week with a medium to high chance (60-80 percent)
of an inland hard freeze (25F or lower).

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop behind the next cold
front on Wednesday night and Thursday with a medium to high
chance (60-80 percent) of gale force northwest wind gusts west
of Apalachicola.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A high pressure ridge axis across the area today will lead to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with just some passing high
cloud cover. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper
50s to mid 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Two reinforcing cold frontal passages are expected. The first one
will arrive starting late Wednesday, and the second one will
arrive on Saturday or Saturday night. There will probably be some
scattered light showers in advance of the front on Wednesday, but
moisture will be limited with both fronts. Any rain that occurs
will be on the light side. Breezy conditions are likely on
Thursday behind the first front with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph
range.

The main impact to the local area will be cold temperatures. There
is a medium to high chance of a hard freeze (25F or lower) for
inland areas on Friday morning. Additional light freezes are
expected for portions of the area each morning thereafter into
early next week.

Despite all the cold temperatures, there is currently no wintry
precip expected in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Smoke from a nearby prescribed burn has lead to restrictions
less than a mile in haze at TLH early this morning. As of this
time, haze has subsided, but cannot rule out a brief return.

Surface high pressure ridge axis gradually moves south of the
terminals today. Light and variable winds become north today
with a tendency to become more westerly at DHN and ECP during
the afternoon. With the weak pressure gradient in place, winds
generally AOB 5 kts. VFR w/SCT cirrus becoming BKN late today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A high pressure ridge axis will move south directly across the
waters by this evening, bringing a continued decrease in wind.
Once high pressure moves further south on Wednesday, westerly
breezes will freshen in advance of a strong reinforcing cold
frontal passage on Wednesday night. Northwesterly gusts near gale
force will follow that front on Thursday with the strongest winds
west of Apalachicola. Winds will quickly decrease on Thursday
night and Friday as a high center passes directly across the
waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the
waters on Saturday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The high pressure center at the heart of the existing dry air mass
will pass directly across the districts today. This will result in
a combination of places with critically low humidity below 25
percent and low daytime dispersion due to the lack of wind and low
mixing heights. On Wednesday, dispersion will increase markedly
with higher values resulting from development of gusty southwest
winds in advance of a strong reinforcing cold frontal passage late
Wednesday. Strong gusty northerly winds will follow that front on
Thursday, supporting another day of high dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days. Any rain
that falls in the next week will not be hydrologically significant.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 41 60 42 / 0 10 30 10
Panama City 61 45 63 42 / 0 30 20 30
Dothan 59 41 59 37 / 0 20 20 10
Albany 60 38 59 37 / 0 10 20 10
Valdosta 62 39 59 40 / 0 10 40 10
Cross City 64 44 64 43 / 0 10 30 40
Apalachicola 60 45 61 44 / 0 30 40 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257056 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
613 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Occasional showers continue today favoring east coast metro
areas.

- Hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic will improve today.

- Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula on
Thursday, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased
rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Latest ensembles and global model solutions show a decaying sfc
boundary lingering over SoFlo today, and maybe lifting a little
northward. This will require keeping some POPs through early this
evening, 20-30 percent, favoring the eastern side of SoFlo. 00Z MFL
sounding and model data keep PWATs in the 1.3-1.5" range, for which
potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 1" still remains in the
forecast.

By Wednesday, models show a mid lvl shortwave feature moving around
the base of a deepening trough over the SE CONUS. Both systems are
shown migrating eastward, with overall synoptic flow veering more
southwestward/westward by the afternoon hours. This will further
focus highest chances of rain over the Atlantic coastline and
around the Broward/Palm Beach metro areas. Meanwhile, a more
robust sfc cold front will be pushed southward towards northern
Florida by late Wednesday.

High temperatures for the short term should remain in the upper 70s
to near 80, with overnight lows tonight mainly in the low 60s, with
some mid 60s around the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Model consensus depict a FROPA reaching the area on Thursday, with
rain chances increasing in the Wed night-Thu morning time frame
ahead of the front. Latest timing with this feature places the best
chances of showers during the mid/late morning hours on Thursday
with scattered to numerous showers possible. In general, dynamic
support seem to remain poor as the parent trough/low complex will
continue to pull NE into the eastern seaboard. And with prevailing
cloud cover, the daytime heating component should remain weak enough
to keep mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast attm. This,
however, will continue to be revised and updated as necessary.
50-70 POPs remain in the forecast for Thursday morning.

Winds veer northward Thursday night into Friday as broad high
pressure spreads across the SE CONUS, triggering another cold/dry
air advection event. Coldest temperatures with this robust cold air
mass are expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas
dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas
in the low-mid 30s. Friday afternoon will also remain fairly cool
for being SoFlo, with highs struggling to hit the mid-upper 60s.

Temperatures then gradually warm up during the weekend, but still
remaining around the low 70s in general. Then by Monday, models seem
to suggest another possible cool down with a front approaching the
area. There is still a lot of uncertainty in long range guidance, so
the forecast philosophy beyond the weekend will continue to be
updated with new guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Borderline IFR ceilings for a couple hours across the east coast
metro and then MVFR ceilings should be prevailing after 13Z
through much of the day with some scattered showers possible. ENE
winds around 10 kts today, with a westerly Gulf breeze developing
at APF this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable late
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will continue until later this morning,
then conditions will quickly subside and remain below highlight
criteria through the middle of the week. A frontal passage is
expected to bring another round of hazardous-level winds and seas
for the Thursday night-Friday timeframe.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

High risk of rip currents expected to continue across the
Atlantic coastline until this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 78 67 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
West Kendall 79 62 80 59 / 50 20 20 20
Opa-Locka 79 66 80 62 / 50 30 30 20
Homestead 80 66 80 62 / 40 20 30 10
Fort Lauderdale 76 66 79 62 / 50 30 30 20
N Ft Lauderdale 76 66 79 62 / 50 40 30 20
Pembroke Pines 78 64 80 61 / 50 30 30 20
West Palm Beach 75 65 78 59 / 40 40 30 20
Boca Raton 76 65 80 60 / 50 40 30 20
Naples 79 64 75 63 / 20 30 20 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257055 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
507 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

* Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern with seasonable
temperatures are expected to persist through next Tuesday.

* A cool front is expected to sweep through the region Wednesday
night into Thursday and could bring adverse to hazardous marine
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected across Deep
South Texas through the forecast period or through next Tuesday. At
least one cool front is on track to sweep through the region mid
week.

Through tonight, any lingering showers, which have mainly been
confined to the Northern Ranchlands and areas west of IH-69E,
will gradually come to an end from the west to east.

Forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a major large-
scale weather pattern change taking place midweek this week. The
500 mb pattern is expected to become highly amplified and will
feature a dipole type pattern (warm/hot West U.S. vs. a cool/cold
East U.S. alignment) with anomalously strong ridging over the
eastern Pacific Ocean into western Canada/U.S. and anomalously
strong troughing downstream over central and eastern U.S. This
pattern coincides with a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation/-EPO,
a positive Pacific North America Oscillation/+PNA, and a negative
Arctic Oscillation/-AO as models suggest. That said, at least one
cool/cold front is expected to sweep through the region mid week
this week.

Ahead of this cool front and still under a northwest flow regime at
the sfc and aloft, Tuesday will feature seasonable temperatures
with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Wednesday will be one of
the warmer days of the forecast period thanks to a bit more
sunlight or incoming solar radiation compared to prior days. High
temps will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across Deep South
Texas. The dry continental cool front is expected to pass through
the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in
slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs returning to
near seasonable levels (upper 60s to lower 70s).

High temperatures rebound on Friday as a return flow develops out of
the south. High temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 70s
to near 80F degrees along the RGV. There`s a bit more uncertainty in
whether or not a second cool/cold front makes its way down to the
valley later this week. That said, temperatures have trended warmer
over the past 24 hours acknowledging the fact that the second front
may not make it`s way all the way down to the valley. We`ll continue
to monitor trends in the days ahead. That said, high temperatures
Saturday through Tuesday will top out in the 70s. Overnight low
temperatures through much of the forecast period will be in the
40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
light northerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Marine conditions will be favorable for much of the forecast period
with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Wednesday
night into Thursday, adverse to hazardous marine conditions are
expected to develop and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed in
response to a cool/cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 69 52 78 52 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 67 49 78 46 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 68 51 80 49 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 45 78 44 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 59 74 58 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 51 78 52 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257054 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
458 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 449 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances today, ending from west to
east

- Wind chill values in the 30s area-wide Thursday and Friday
mornings

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Low to medium (20-50%) chances of rain will continue through this
afternoon as a mid-level low moves west to east. As the low moves
off to the east late this afternoon into tonight, a cold front will
bring drier air back to South Texas. The dry air will persist
Wednesday through the end of the work week. Morning lows will be
chilly Thursday and Friday with wind chills in the mid to upper 30s
expected. Otherwise, generally quiet weather is expected with some
sunshine finally returning by the middle of the week. Another cold
front will swing through Friday night into Saturday. Most locations
will stay dry with this upcoming front, though some showers are
possible across the waters and maybe along the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions can be expected through the course of the period
under mostly cloudy skies. Some periods showers will exist
through this morning through the early afternoon hours at most sites
(ALI,LRD,COT,VCT). Confidence remained low therefore the no mention
of showers at CRP remained during this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze will continue through
Wednesday. Winds will increase again to fresh to strong (BF 5-6)
Wednesday night into Thursday as another cold front moves across the
waters, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) once again Thursday night.
There is a low (15-20%) chance of showers through this afternoon,
with another low (less than 20%) chance Saturday as another front
approaches the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Fire weather conditions are not expected today as relative humidity
values remain above 40%. A front will usher in drier air (minimum
relative humidity values less than 30%) for Wednesday through the
end of the week which, when combined with ERC values in the 50th to
74th percentile, could lead to elevated fire weather conditions
through the end of the work week. Light winds will keep us below
thresholds for critical fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 64 46 75 44 / 10 0 0 0
Victoria 64 44 73 38 / 20 0 0 0
Laredo 63 45 76 42 / 30 0 0 0
Alice 65 44 76 42 / 20 0 0 0
Rockport 64 51 73 47 / 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 64 42 76 39 / 30 0 0 0
Kingsville 64 44 77 43 / 10 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 63 52 73 51 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257053 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
605 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Some
interior rain showers very late tonight, but any snow showers
confined to the very highest terrain. Relatively mild
temperatures today and especially Wednesday with sharply colder
weather arriving later Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold
front. While a significant storm appears unlikely Saturday
night into Sunday...a bit of snow is certainly possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall quiet weather today, followed by a period of showers
late tonight across interior southern New England with some
snow showers confined to the very highest terrain.

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers
early Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry & cold Thu
night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits & teens
with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow
sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall quiet weather today, followed by a
period of showers late tonight across interior southern New
England with some snow showers confined to the very highest
terrain.

A series of shortwaves quickly move from west to east tonight
along zonal flow. First disturbance passes with little impacts
outside of an increase in mid and high level clouds this
morning across northern MA. Milder day follows as a transient
ridge axis develops over New England. Latest guidance still
shows a milder day on tap as 925mb temps climb to 0- 2C. A more
amplified shortwave digs over the Great Lakes later Tuesday into
Tuesday night. First sign of its approach will be increasing
mid and high level clouds later today. Should see a broken band
of precipitation pass through the CWA with the higher POPs
located across northern Massachusetts. Much of the forcing with
this shortwave will be confined to Northern New England and so
shower activity will be limited in coverage and intensity. May
also see a few flakes mix in across the higher terrain but
accumulations if any will be light with marginal temperatures
and modest QPF.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early Thu across
the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

An amplifying shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and into
northern New England Wed into early Thu. Out ahead of this cold
front/amplifying shortwave trough...southerly flow will result in
unseasonably mild temperatures. Despite considerable clouds...high
temps will be well into the 40s to near 50 in a few spots. These
readings are a solid 10+ degrees above normal for mid January
standards.

Given the bulk of the dynamics passing to our north...not expecting
a lot of precipitation and much of this time will feature dry
weather. Nonetheless...a few showers will be possible at times Wed
into Wed night with the focus for them across interior southern New
England closer to the shortwave energy. As colder air begins to work
in from the west...may see precipitation end as a brief period of
light snow showers across interior southern New England early Thu
morning. Any snow accumulations should be a dusting to generally
less than 1 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry &
cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits &
teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Low pressure will rapidly intensifies Thu into Thu night as it
tracks northeast from northern new England into the Canadian
Maritimes. The result will be a shot of much colder air working into
southern new England Thu into Fri. Temps on Thu will likely fall
during the afternoon into the upper 20s and 30s on a stiff gusty
west wind. Low temps Thu night will drop into the upper single
digits and teens. Wind chills will drop to between 5 below and 10
above by daybreak Fri. High temps on Fri will only recover into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure building in from the west
will keep our weather dry...despite the cold temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a
bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is
unlikely.

High pressure quickly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast to start
the weekend as another trough gets carved out across the Great
Lakes. This allows for a quick rebound in temperatures with highs
mainly in the 40s on Sat. The forecast then becomes quite complex
Sat night into Sunday with an amplifying trough to our west with
several pieces of shortwave energy. The problem is that the guidance
is struggling on which piece of energy to amplify and where the
actual surface low develops. Latest guidance tends to develop the
main surface low too far north and late for a significant storm. That
being said...there are a few pieces of guidance including the
CMC/ICON that have a wave of low pressure further south with the
potential for an inverted trough setup. So while a significant storm
appears unlikely...given the amount of shortwave energy to our west
we can not rule out period of snow sometime Sat night into Sun if an
inverted trough sets up. Whether or not this happens remains to be
seen...but it is something to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today...High confidence.

VFR. SW winds increasing to between 7 and 13 knots by afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence..

Mainly VFR...but very brief MVFR conditions possible in the
interior after 03z/04z in a few brief rain showers. Any snow
showers will be confined to the very highest terrain of the
Berks and northern Worcester Hills and rather short-lived too.
Modest LLJ developing will result in periods of SW wind gusts of
20 to 25 knots tonight near the I-95 corridor. We also did
include LLWS though given winds at 850 mb on the order of 45 to
55 knots.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tonight through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
SHSN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and tonight...High Confidence.

Winds have diminished this morning...but lingering marginal 5
foot seas will persist across the southern waters before
diminishing this afternoon. Modest southwest LLJ develops
tonight with another period of 25-30 kt gusts expected. SCA
conditions hoisted tonight for most waters.

Outlook /Tonight through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

#1257052 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
602 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The first key message was updated to mention only this
afternoon for low relative humidity values. For the second key
message, wind gusts should remain within Small Craft Advisory
levels Thursday into Thursday evening. The risk for Gale force
wind gusts has diminished.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry high pressure will remain across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina today, yielding low relative humidity values this
afternoon.

2) Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions possible as
gusty winds and low humidity values arrive behind a mostly dry
cold front Thursday into Friday.

3) Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows
in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry high pressure will remain across southeast
Georgia and South Carolina today, yielding low relative humidity
values this afternoon.

Dry sfc high pressure will linger across the Southeast U.S.
today. Forecast soundings indicate that mixing will range
between 2.5 to 3 kft this afternoon. As mixing begins, sfc
dewpoints should remain in the 20s through mid-day. However,
weak southwest winds may result in a slow increase in dewpoints
from south and near the coast, increasing into the 30s. Minimum
RH values should occur during the early afternoon hours, before
the dewpoint recovery. Min RH values are forecast to range from
the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s along the coast. High
temperatures are forecast to range around 10 degrees warmer than
values reached on Monday, generally in the low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions
possible as gusty winds and low humidity values arrive behind a
mostly dry cold front Thursday into Friday.

On Thursday a rex block will be established over the Western
United States allowing for a long wave trough axis to amplify
across the Eastern United States. In the mid-levels of the
atmosphere, a closed mid-level low will be moving east across
the Great Lakes with a strong push of lower heights approaching
the area from the west (120 m height falls in 12 hrs). This
magnitude of DCVA/ height falls is rather impressive, but
precipitation chances are limited (<15%) with the surface cold
front Thursday morning/ afternoon. There are several reasons for
this. The main reason being the Wednesday wave. This wave will
be moving away early Thursday with the LFQ of the subtropical
jet streak moving off of the coast. During this type of setup,
most of the precipitation gets going off of the South Carolina/
North Carolina coast.

Behind the surface cold front, strong low level CAA will take
hold with 850 mb temperatures dropping from 0 degrees C to -8
degrees C. This, in combination with peak mixing and downslope
flow in the low and mid levels, will likely result in wind gusts
Thursday afternoon on the higher end of the guidance envelope,
with 25 to 30 mph gusts likely, with some gusts to 35 mph
possible over land. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be
necessary with probabilities of reaching 25 kt around 55%.

Additionally, dewpoints will rapidly fall behind the cold front
allowing relative humidity values to approach 25%. It should be
noted that the Wambaw and Glissons Pond RAWS sites have both
had fuel moisture values in the single digits Sunday and Monday
afternoons.

Surface high pressure will settle overhead Friday, with
dewpoints likely mixing out to near the single digits in the
afternoon. The latest LREF probabilities show a 50 - 70% chance
of RH values less than 25% away from the immediate coast. Winds
will be much weaker Friday though given the proximity of the
surface high pressure to coastal South Carolina and Georgia.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Very cold temperatures will occur Friday
morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the
beaches.

Surface high pressure now looks to move east faster, or allow
winds to decouple quicker Thursday night/ Friday morning. As
such, low temperatures will likely be in the upper teens for
areas of rural Georgia away from the coast (and closer to the
surface high pressure), and low 20s for the rest of coastal
South Carolina. Right at the beaches (including the Charleston
Peninsula), expect lows in the upper 20s. Wind Chill to
temperature spread will likely be greatest Thursday evening,
with the differential becoming less and less as winds slacken by
Friday morning. Still though, enough wind is forecast that a
Cold Weather Advisory might be required for some of the area
Friday morning. Rural Georgia has ~ a 60- 80% chance of needing
a Cold Weather Advisory, while coastal South Carolina and
Georgia has ~ a 20-50% chance of needing a Cold Weather
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through
12Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will continue for
KCHS, KJZI and KSAV through late week. NW winds could gust to
around 20 kts in the wake of cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad high pressure will remain across the marine zones today
and tonight. The pattern should yield around 5 kts of wind
today, gradually increasing to 5 to 10 kts tonight. Seas are
forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft.

Wednesday, the marine zones will remain between a developing
low pressure system over the Gulf Stream and a cold front over
the western Carolinas. A weak gradient on the west side of the
low keeps benign marine conditions in place despite increased
shower chances.

A strong cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
Northwest winds should develop in the wake of the front, with
gusts around 25 kts across the Atlantic waters of GA and SC on
Thursday into Thursday evening. As a result, wave heights will
build during the daylight hours on Thursday, peaking between 3-5
ft across the nearshore with 6ft beyond 30 NM Thursday evening.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all marine
zones outside the CHS Harbor Thursday and Thursday evening. The
center of a large area of high pressure will arrive on Friday,
supporting winds around 10 kts with 1-2 ft seas. Winds should
gradually strengthen as a dry cold front sweeps across the
region on Saturday, with gusty winds and building seas, possibly
reaching Small Craft Conditions across a portion of the waters.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257051 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
531 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Several Freeze Events through Early Next Week. Friday Morning
Hard Freeze Inland & Coastal Light Freeze Likely.

- Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the teens to low 20s Possible.
Consecutive Nights of Inland Freezes Fri Night through Next Tue Night

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Force Gusts Thu & Thu Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Low level cloudiness and elevated northerly winds near the coast
will gradually decrease this morning as a coastal trough over the
local Atlantic waters edges farther east. A few sprinkles will be
possible, mainly across northeast FL, early this morning, as a
mid level short wave trough passes overhead.

Trending warmer today, less breezy and with less persistent cloud
cover for most as high temperatures near 60 across inland southeast
GA to the upper 60s toward north-central FL. Coastal locales will
top out in the upper 50s across the Golden Isles to low 60s along
the First Coast. More sunshine across southeast GA and the Suwannee
River Valley today compared to yesterday, but mostly to partly
cloudy skies will linger along the coast and across northeast
generally south of I-10 corridor.

Cloudiness increases from the south and west overnight as a broad
surface forms offshore of the FL Atlantic coast as a longer wave
mid/upper level trough deepens across the western Gulf. Low
temperatures will trend warmer tonight compared to this morning and
range by 15-20 degrees across the local area from the upper 30s
across far inland southeast GA north and west of Waycross to the mid
50s toward Flagler Beach. A few light showers and sprinkles will
also be possible overnight mainly across northeast Florida as the
surface low that develops near the southeast FL Atlantic coast
tracks northward, east of the local area, into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

On Wednesday, an upper shortwave will pass over the area as it
traverses a deepening longwave trough over the eastern US. This will
bring isolated to scattered showers to the area. Limited moisture
will keep rainfall amounts light and won`t bring much relief to the
severe drought. Around seasonable temperatures under mostly cloudy
skies expected on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
An arctic cold front will pass through Wednesday night bringing
another round of showers before shifting into central FL by Thursday
morning. Much colder and drier air filters into the area in the wake
of the front as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Despite
mostly sunny skies, temperatures will struggle under the brisk
northwest winds and strong cold air advection. Afternoon
temperatures will only reach into the upper 40s in inland SE GA to
the upper 50s in north-central FL. High pressure builds overhead
allowing winds to calm by Friday morning. Arctic air, calming winds,
and clear skies will allow for a hard freeze to develop over inland
areas Thursday night as lows fall into the low 20s over SE GA and
mid 20s over inland NE FL with a light freeze appearing more likely
over downtown Jacksonville to the Jax Beaches where lows will fall
to the upper 20s to the low 30s. Cold Weather Advisory conditions
will be possible for NE FL with temperatures/wind chills in the
low/mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Friday, high pressure remains over the area maintaining dry
conditions. Another cold night under mostly clear skies will allow
lows to fall to low/mid 30s over inland SE GA and portions of inland
NE FL west of the St Johns river. Another trough will dive south and
east to the Gulf coast this weekend with another cold front moving
through the area Sunday. Not expecting much moisture or showers
ahead of the front with partly cloudy skies and southwest winds
Saturday becoming mostly sunny and winds northwesterly Sunday with
another potential freeze downtown and potential hard freeze over
inland SE GA Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

MVFR restrictions will linger near SSI briefly this morning and
advertised TEMPO restrictions through 14z. Elsewhere, VFR with cloud
bases 4-6 kft. Still anticipate further ceiling base rise through 12-
15z as the gradient between the high to the WNW and the low level
coastal trough offshore of the local coast weakens. Gusty NNE to NNW
winds at the coast will also relax into the afternoon. Weakening
surface high pressure builds across the terminals this evening from
the Gulf Coast states as NNW to WNW winds subside below 6 kts. Multi-
layered cloudiness increases tonight with the approach of the next
surface front. After 06z, low stratus may cause restrictions mainly
across FL terminals as a trough axis begins to lift northward from
south FL ahead of the approaching cold front. Less than a 20% chance
of showers near SGJ 06-12z.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated northerly winds across the local waters will gradually
weaken through today as a coastal trough breaks down and shifts
farther offshore as high pressure builds across the the Gulf coast
states. The high will extend across the local waters tonight into
Wednesday as a broad surface low tracks northward well east of the
local Atlantic coast. Westerly winds increase Wednesday night as a
strong cold front moves across the region. Small craft advisory
conditions return Thursday trailing the frontal passage and continue
into Thursday night. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure
builds directly over the local waters. The high will shift southeast
Saturday as a weaker, dry cold front moves across the waters with a
surge in northwest to north winds behind the frontal passage late
Saturday into Sunday.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for southeast GA
and northeast FL beaches with lingering longshore currents. Low
risk Wednesday under offshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Areas of low dispersions Tuesday
-High dispersions Thursday

High pressure over the southeast US will sink southward into the
Gulf today. Weak surface and transport winds will create low daytime
dispersions today. Lingering dry airmass will create MinRH values of
22-27 percent over inland Georgia northwest of US84. On Wednesday,
west-southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching front
resulting in good dispersions. Light scattered showers will move
through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop in the wake of the front bringing high
dispersions area-wide on Thursday. A cold and dry airmass filters in
for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the 20s. Elevated
Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast Georgia on
Thursday due to breezy winds and low RHs.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
this morning or Tonight. Freeze and frost are expected for inland SE
GA this morning. A widespread freeze is forecast for Thursday night.
A light inland freeze expected Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 38 58 39 / 0 0 40 10
SSI 58 45 61 44 / 10 10 40 20
JAX 61 46 63 45 / 0 10 30 20
SGJ 63 51 65 48 / 10 20 30 40
GNV 64 48 65 46 / 0 10 30 40
OCF 66 50 65 47 / 0 20 30 50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
120-220-322-422-522.
GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ153-165.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257050 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
459 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reintroduced rain/snow mentions inland along the cold front
Thursday morning, although wintry precip impacts are still not
expected. Small craft advisories issued Tuesday night to
Thursday for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures this morning with a gradual warming trend
today into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow

3) Generally dry cold front moves through early Sunday, with
another surge of cold, dry air behind it

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force
winds possible Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region has allowed for good
radiational cooling conditions this morning with light/calm
winds and clear skies. Lows expected in the mid to upper 20s
inland to 30s along the coast around sunrise. Some inland
locations have even dropped into the lower 20s. NBM temps are
too warm in this scenario and followed closely to MOS guidance
with manual adjustments for the peak radiational cooling
locales.

High pressure slides offshore today with southwest winds
bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to near 60 today
and tomorrow afternoon, which is a few degrees above
climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
will be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue likely
PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not
that impressive with precip amounts which shows around a
quarter of an inch along the coast to little accumulation
inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a rain/snow
mix inland with frontal forcing becoming all rain closer to the
coast along the front, but rain amounts expected to be limited,
only up to a tenth of an inch at best. Any snow mixed in is not
expected to accumulate, and no wintry precip impacts are
expected. Strong CAA develops behind the front later Thursday
morning but it appears this will be a typical cold air chasing
the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon. For this
reason, stepped down from NBM chance snow to slight chance,
with room to step down even further.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday
evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will
be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period
of rain/snow. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs
are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for either
rain or snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn`t
much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip
chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%). NBM called for snow
chances, but with sfc temps in the 40-45F range at that time,
paired with the drier trend, elected to stick with all rain for
the forecast. Behind the front, below average temps and dry
conditions return.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the entire period as high
pressure builds in from the southwest. Sct high clouds continue
to stream in from the SW but offer little in the way of impact
to the area. We also remain too dry for fog development.
Otherwise, light and variable to calm winds tonight become
SW`rly at about 5-10 kts with gusts up around 10-15 kts by mid
morning. These winds will persist into Tue evening before winds
become light and variable once again Tue night. Skies remain
partly cloudy through the period.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the
period with high pressure in control. While there is still
uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could
bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has settled across the waters bringing W/SW winds
around 5-15 kt becoming SW later as high moves offshore. Seas
have also laid off, around 2ft across all coastal waters.
Tonight, winds begin to pick up as a low crosses the great lakes
and high pressure sits offshore, tightening the pressure
gradient. This will bring gusts around 25kts for the warmer gulf
stream waters tonight. Issued a SCA for gulf stream waters given
6Z guidance increased confidence in SCA gusts. For now have SCA
going until Friday 00Z, at which point gale force gust chances
increase.

Winds briefly lessen to 15-20 knots Wednesday morning for 3-6
hours before picking back up to 20-30 knots as a low forms
offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing small
craft gusts with this low is along warmer gulf stream waters
with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter
wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions
across the waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high
pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another
cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once
again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Thursday for AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$

#1257049 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
429 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A few showers may brush the island chain over the next few days.
There is the potential for slight chance of thunder Wednesday
through Thursday, though, the better risk is across the marine
area.

-A strong cold front will move through the Keys on Thursday. This
will bring a period of breezy to windy conditions to the Keys
along with strong to potentially near gale breezes to the Florida
Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are becoming
increasingly likely later this week.

-In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier
conditions for late week through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
KBYX radar has remained active all night with the shower activity
mostly across the Straits of Florida. However, occasionally a few
showers have moved across the Upper Keys, especially near Key
Largo. MRMS data over the last 3 hours show estimated rainfall
amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall in
association with these showers across the Upper Keys. The heaviest
amounts remain across the central Straits where upwards of three
tenths of inch were estimated due to heavier activity. GOES 19
Nighttime Microphysics shows partly cloudy skies across the Keys
with the most robust cloud cover across the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the
lower 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
An elongated surface ridge remains in place across the Southeast
U.S. early this morning. This is promoting mainly northeast
breezes of 10 to 15 knots at marine platforms surrounding the
Island Chain.

.FORECAST...
The surface ridge currently across the Southeast U.S. will
continue to drift southeastward through tonight while weakening.
This will result in light to gentle breezes during the day
becoming mainly light for tonight. High moisture for this time of
the year remains in place across the Keys leading to chances PoPs
for the next several forecast periods. The exception will be
tonight when rain chances drop to slight due to a subtle dip in
moisture. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated
PWATs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches across the Keys which is between the
75th and 90th percentile for the date. In addition, a pre-frontal
trough will approach the Keys Wednesday/Wednesday night. Modest
instability, plenty of moisture, and a trigger being the pre-
frontal trough will yield the potential for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. The better risk for a thunderstorm will remain
across the marine area where the greater instability, moisture,
and lift will be. Latest statistical guidance has backed off on
the idea of thunder across the area, however, confidence wasn`t
high enough this update to remove it just yet. Most likely this
will be scrutinized period by period. One of the other reasons for
not removing just yet is that we will have some upper level
forcing this go around which we typically don`t always see in the
Keys.

The main show arrives Thursday when a strong cold front will usher
in Florida winter for the next several days and through the length
of the extended. Temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble
Thursday night. Overnight lows are expected to be 50 to 55 for
Thursday night with daytime highs Friday only managing 60 to 65
degrees. The air conditioners will be able to get a well deserved
break for late week through at least the middle of next week.
Accompanying the frontal passage, expect a rapid surge in breezes
across all the Florida Keys with breezy, becoming windy conditions
anticipated along the Island Chain. For the marine area, the
potential exists for a window of near gale breezes. The peak of
the wind surge right now looks to be Thursday afternoon and
evening before gradually slackening thereafter. Breezes will
originally be westerly before shifting to the northwest to north
overnight and then north by Friday morning. Breezes rapidly
slacken by Friday afternoon as the gradient collapses. The cold
front will push out any residual moisture resulting in a dry
forecast from Thursday night through the extended.

Another reinforcing front may press through the Keys sometime
Sunday/Sunday night keeping the chill going. Daytime highs through
the period will be near 70 degrees and overnight lows in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Dew points will also have a hard
time reaching 60 degrees after the front passes through on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a surface
ridge stretching across the southeastern U.S. will weaken and
slide southeastward through tonight. This will promote slackening
breezes to light to gentle. Thereafter, a pre- frontal trough will
slide across the region on Wednesday, briefly clocking winds
around to the southeast initially, then southwest, and eventually
west to northwest. This will be followed by a second, stronger
cold front on Thursday with a round of strong to potentially near
gale breezes. Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly
likely later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
Periodic MVFR CIGs may be observed at either island terminal this
morning. This may also be accompanied by some rainfall with a
chance of rain persisting into this afternoon. VCSH will likely be
introduced as showers approach either terminal from the Straits
starting with MTH. Near surface winds will be generally light and
out of the north to northeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1981, the temperature
dropped to 41F in Key West, which is the daily record and tied for
the coldest temperature ever recorded in Key West. The month
would finish as the coldest January on record in Key West, with an
average temperature of only 61.3F -- 2 whole degrees cooler than
the previous record of 63.3F set in 1905.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 78 71 77 69 / 20 20 30 40
Marathon 79 70 79 69 / 30 20 30 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257048 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

* Passing trade-wind showers continue: Brief showers will affect
windward and coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, mainly during the morning and evening hours, with limited
afternoon showers over western Puerto Rico. Periods of sunshine
will continue between showers.

* Localized flooding remains possible: While widespread flooding is
not expected, increased moisture later in the week may cause
ponding on roads and isolated urban or small stream flooding,
especially across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Moderate rip current risk: life-threatening rip currents are
expected along north and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands through the workweek. The risk may
increase this weekend, becoming high due to stronger winds and a
northwesterly swell.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mainland Puerto Rico experienced calm weather overnight, while a
trade wind disturbance brought passing showers to the U.S. Virgin
Islands, with some reaching eastern Puerto Rico. Winds were from the
east at 5 to 10 mph. Skies were mostly clear in mainland Puerto
Rico, but partly to mostly cloudy in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Overnight temperatures ranged from the low 70s to the upper 60s
along the coast and from the upper 50s to the low 60s in the
interior valleys and mountains.

Weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
will remain influenced by a broad surface high pressure system
extending from the central Atlantic into the Caribbean, along with a
weak induced surface trough north of the region. This setup will
maintain an east-northeasterly low-level wind flow, allowing shallow
moisture confined mainly below 3 km to advect into the area and
produce passing showers, particularly during the morning and evening
hours.

As the surface trough lifts out, winds will gradually veer to the
east. This will allow modest moisture, with precipitable water
values ranging between 1.3 and 1.5 inches, to continue filtering
into the islands, supporting additional shower activity. However, a
persistent mid-level ridge over the region will limit vertical
development, resulting in a typical trade-wind pattern characterized
by brief showers affecting coastal and windward areas during the
morning and evening hours, followed by limited afternoon convection
mainly across western Puerto Rico.

On Wednesday, low-level winds are expected to veer further as the
surface pattern responds to a frontal boundary exiting the eastern
United States. This change will favor a slight increase in tropical
moisture and cloudiness, with shower activity becoming more
noticeable in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal values.

By Thursday, a deep-layer mid- to upper-level trough will move
further eastward of the Lesser Antilles, while a mid-level ridge
continues to dominate the northeastern Caribbean. Under this
pattern, trade-wind showers will persist across the region as a
surge of moisture increases Precipitable Water to 1.5 to 1.75
inches. Enhanced by low-level convergence and local orographic
effects, this could lead to ponding of water on roads and in
poorly drained areas, particularly across eastern Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands, occasionally throughout the day.

Overall, a limited risk of flooding is expected, though isolated
instances of urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out on
any given day. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay
informed by following the latest forecasts and updates in case
conditions change.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

On Friday, model guidance indicates that a frontal boundary will
remain north of the region, while a pre-frontal trough may enhance
low-level moisture convergence and atmospheric instability,
supporting a wetter pattern. Friday currently appears to have the
greatest rainfall potential, with a limited flood risk mainly
across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Precipitable water values are
forecast to range between 1.4 and 1.9 inches from Friday through
Saturday, near to above climatological normals for this time of
year.

Low-level winds will generally remain from the east to southeast
at 10 to 15 mph on Friday, then shift to the east to northeast by
Friday night into Saturday while increasing to 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Breezy to locally windy conditions are
expected Saturday and early Sunday, which may lead to loose outdoor
items being blown around, especially across exposed and coastal
areas.

From Sunday through Tuesday, precipitable water values are
expected to decrease to between 1.2 and 1.5 inches, with patches
of near-average moisture moving across the region. This will
support more variable but seasonable conditions, with passing
trade wind showers and limited convective development each
afternoon. No flooding concerns at this time.

A subtropical jet streak near 250 mb will establish a favorable
dynamic pattern from Tuesday night into Wednesday, supporting
upper-level divergence and an induced surface trough. As a result,
an increase in the frequency of showers is expected across the
forecast area under a northeasterly low-level wind flow. Continue
to monitor the forecast updates.

Temperature-wise, ensemble guidance continues to indicate near
seasonal to above-normal temperatures across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

Expect VFR conds today. SHRA/SHRA may occasionally affect TJSJ,
TIST, and TISX, with brief MVFR conds possible near TJPS in the
afternoon (16-22z). Similar conditions with less activity are likely
for Wednesday. Winds will remain light and variable overnight,
shifting to ENEE at 10 to 15 knots after 13z, with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a surface
trough to the north of the region will maintain gentle to moderate
east to northeast winds through mid-week, then shifting from the
east to southeast by Thursday. This pattern will support passing
trade- wind showers, mainly across the Atlantic waters, with
occasional showers also moving through the Caribbean passages. By
Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds and the arrival of a
long-period northerly swell will likely result in choppy to rough
seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during the weekend.
Mariners are advised to continue monitoring the forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 502 AM AST Tue Jan 13 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along the northern
and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra and St.
Croix, with breaking waves around 4 feet. Similar conditions are
expected to persist through most of the workweek. A moderate risk
means that life-threatening rip currents are possible within the
surf zone, and beachgoers should exercise caution at all times.

Conditions are likely to deteriorate over the weekend as winds
increase and a long-period northerly swell arrives. This may lead
to a return of a high risk of rip currents across Atlantic exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more location
specific information, continue to monitor weather.gov/beach/sju.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257047 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
329 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reintroduced rain/snow mentions inland along the cold front
Thursday morning, although wintry precip impacts are still not
expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures this morning with a gradual warming trend
today into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow

3) Generally dry cold front moves through early Sunday, with
another surge of cold, dry air behind it

MARINE: SCA conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday, with
gale force winds possible Thursday night. SCA conditions
possible again for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region has allowed for good
radiational cooling conditions this morning with light/calm
winds and clear skies. Lows expected in the mid to upper 20s
inland to 30s along the coast around sunrise. Some inland
locations have even dropped into the lower 20s. NBM temps are
too warm in this scenario and followed closely to MOS guidance
with manual adjustments for the peak radiational cooling
locales.

High pressure slides offshore today with southwest winds
bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to near 60 today
and tomorrow afternoon, which is a few degrees above
climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
will be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue likely
PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not
that impressive with precip amounts which shows around a
quarter of an inch along the coast to little accumulation
inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a rain/snow
mix inland with frontal forcing becoming all rain closer to the
coast along the front, but rain amounts expected to be limited,
only up to a tenth of an inch at best. Any snow mixed in is not
expected to accumulate, and no wintry precip impacts are
expected. Strong CAA develops behind the front later Thursday
morning but it appears this will be a typical cold air chasing
the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon. For this
reason, stepped down from NBM chance snow to slight chance,
with room to step down even further.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday
evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will
be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period
of rain/snow. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs
are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for either
rain or snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn`t
much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip
chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%). NBM called for snow
chances, but with sfc temps in the 40-45F range at that time,
paired with the drier trend, elected to stick with all rain for
the forecast. Behind the front, below average temps and dry
conditions return.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the entire period as high
pressure builds in from the southwest. Sct high clouds continue
to stream in from the SW but offer little in the way of impact
to the area. We also remain too dry for fog development.
Otherwise, light and variable to calm winds tonight become
SW`rly at about 5-10 kts with gusts up around 10-15 kts by mid
morning. These winds will persist into Tue evening before winds
become light and variable once again Tue night. Skies remain
partly cloudy through the period.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the
period with high pressure in control. While there is still
uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could
bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has settled across the waters bringing W/SW winds
around 5-15 kt becoming SW later as high moves offshore. Seas
have also laid off, around 2ft across all coastal waters.
Tonight, winds begin to pick up as a low crosses the great lakes
and high pressure sits offshore, tightening the pressure
gradient. This will bring gusts around 25kts for the warmer gulf
stream waters tonight. Given the lower confidence of seeing
frequent 25+ kt gusts, elected to not issue a small craft
advisory at this time despite being 24 hours away. 6Z guidance
may provide more clarity on the setup and be the decision maker.

Winds briefly lessen to 15-20 knots Wednesday morning before
picking back up as a low forms offshore and strengthens. Again,
best chance of seeing small craft gusts with this low is along
warmer gulf stream waters with SW flow. Cooler inland
sounds/rivers will see much lighter wind gusts with the SW winds
thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions
across the waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high
pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another
cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once
again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257046 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- A couple degrees warmer today with isolated showers, mainly
Cape Canaveral southward

- Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
bringing a brief increase in rain chances

- Below normal temperatures Thursday onward; sub-freezing morning
lows and frigid wind chills in the 20s to 30s, especially
Friday morning and next Monday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Today-Tonight...An inverted surface trough remains just offshore
this morning while a low cloud deck persists over the northern
half of the area. The most recent cold front to move through ECFL
has settled across the Florida Straits as a stationary front. Current
temperatures range widely from the low/mid 50s north of Orlando
to the upper 60s along the Treasure Coast. Where moisture remains
marginally sufficient today, mainly over the Treasure Coast and
Gulf Stream, isolated showers will be possible. That said, a
majority of the area will stay dry with temperatures warming a few
degrees more compared to yesterday (highs in the low/mid 70s).

Moisture return and the south Florida front moving north helps to
expand 20-30% rain chances northward overnight, but the majority
of activity will be focused out over the Gulf Stream. In other
words, a continuation of isolated showers will simply expand north
toward Cape Canaveral and even the Volusia Coast through daybreak
Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to settle into the mid 50s
north to the low/mid 60s from the Orlando metro to the Treasure
Coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Wednesday morning, a weak cool front looks to
be draped across portions of the Treasure Coast and Gulf Stream
waters, before sliding east of the area by midday. Our focus is on
the next series of cold fronts, approaching central Florida late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 500mb height falls begin in
earnest late Wednesday afternoon as a trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. Rain chances look limited Wednesday, with one batch
of QPF shifting well offshore and models in disagreement on very
light QPF north of Orlando in the afternoon.

We will be waiting on the arrival of a stronger cold front early
Thursday, bringing with it slightly better rain chances (30-55%).
Model guidance lends to a little lower confidence than is typical
at this time range. GFS+AI ensembles point to generally 0.2" or
less of measurable rain between now and the FROPA Thursday
morning, whereas the ECMWF+AI ensembles are more centered around
0.3"-0.4" of rain. Granted, a couple tenths of rain is not a huge
difference with most of the area under D0-D1 (abnormally dry to
moderate drought) conditions. As quickly as rain moves in, it will
move out over the open Atlantic Thursday afternoon.

A westerly breeze Wednesday under a mostly cloudy sky is likely to
keep temperatures a bit cooler, especially north of I-4. Behind
Thursday`s front, noticeably colder and drier will rush southward
supported by a 10-15+ mph wind (gusting 20-25 mph at times,
especially at the coast). Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Wednesday trend down on Thursday, struggling to reach the
60-degree mark Orlando northward. Skies quickly clear Thursday
night, setting the stage for a cold night and brisk wind chill
values.

Friday-Monday...Before stepping outside for work or school Friday
morning, be sure to dress warmly! Forecast morning lows have not
changed much from the previous cycle, maintaining the idea of
temperatures at or below freezing along and north of I-4, in
addition to sub-freezing lows across interior ECFL as far south
as Lake Okeechobee. Making it feel even colder will be a northwest
breeze, sending wind chill values into the mid/upper 20s for a
majority of the area. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory will
be needed for a large portion of ECFL Friday morning. Winds
decrease through the day Friday into early Saturday as high
pressure builds over the peninsula. Despite plenty of sun Friday
afternoon, temperatures will really struggle to get out of the 50s
from Osceola/northern Brevard and points north (low 60s south).
Mostly clear conditions Friday night sets the stage for another
cold night (30s-mid 40s). With lighter winds overnight, there is
a possibility of frost developing Saturday morning over portions
of the area. Daytime temperatures make a comeback, climbing into
the 60s to low 70s. But then...

Below normal temperatures look to be reinforced by another cold
front Saturday night into Sunday. A lack of moisture along this
front is keeping rain chances out of the forecast. Temperatures
swing colder again Sunday into early next week, with lows in the
30s to mid 40s and highs only in the 50s and 60s. Sub-freezing
temps are possible again, especially Monday morning. Behind the
front, northwest winds will again add a wind chill factor with
values falling into the mid 20s to low 30s Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Weak surface trough remains over the nearshore waters through
tonight as N-E winds decrease today. Isolated showers are forecast
along the Treasure Coast and over the Gulf Stream, expanding north
and eastward in time, especially on Wednesday. Seas fall to 3-4
ft today and 2-4 ft Wednesday.

A strong cold front approaches early Thursday morning, quickly
pushing south of the waters by the afternoon. Shower chances
increase to 40-60%, followed by freshening NW winds behind the
front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions gradually expand from
the offshore waters Thursday morning to the remaining marine legs
Thursday afternoon. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt
(esp. offshore) build seas to 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore
Thursday night. The pressure gradient quickly unwinds Friday as
high pressure builds overhead, allowing seas to fall to 3-6 ft
Friday afternoon. Favorable boating conditions return Friday night
and continue through much of Saturday (seas 2-3 ft).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1251 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGs continue to build southward across the area.
Have continued prevailing MVFR/IFR CIGs across the interior and
DAB. Guidance is not consistent on how long this will persist. For
now, have maintained lower CIGs lingering through 08Z. But wil
continue to monitor. VFR conditions are then forecast once these
lower CIGs lift. Northerly winds around 10 KT tonight will
becoming N/NE Tuesday and remain around 10 KT before becoming
light and variable around 23/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 55 67 50 / 10 30 30 40
MCO 73 60 68 54 / 10 30 20 50
MLB 74 58 72 52 / 10 30 30 40
VRB 75 59 74 51 / 20 40 30 30
LEE 70 55 67 51 / 10 20 20 50
SFB 72 56 68 52 / 10 30 20 40
ORL 72 59 67 53 / 10 30 20 50
FPR 75 59 75 51 / 20 40 30 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257045 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
312 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Some
interior rain showers very late tonight, but any snow showers
confined to the very highest terrain. Relatively mild
temperatures today and especially Wednesday with sharply colder
weather arriving later Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold
front. While a significant storm appears unlikely Saturday
night into Sunday...but a bit of snow is certainly possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall quiet weather today, followed by a period of showers
late tonight across interior southern New England with some
snow showers confined to the very highest terrain.

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers
early Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry & cold Thu
night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits & teens
with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow
sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall quiet weather today, followed by a
period of showers late tonight across interior southern New
England with some snow showers confined to the very highest
terrain.

A series of shortwaves quickly move from west to east tonight
along zonal flow. First disturbance passes with little impacts
outside of an increase in mid and high level clouds this
morning across northern MA. Milder day follows as a transient
ridge axis develops over New England. Latest guidance still
shows a milder day on tap as 925mb temps climb to 0- 2C. A more
amplified shortwave digs over the Great Lakes later Tuesday into
Tuesday night. First sign of its approach will be increasing
mid and high level clouds later today. Should see a broken band
of precipitation pass through the CWA with the higher POPs
located across northern Massachusetts. Much of the forcing with
this shortwave will be confined to Northern New England and so
shower activity will be limited in coverage and intensity. May
also see a few flakes mix in across the higher terrain but
accumulations if any will be light with marginal temperatures
and modest QPF.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early Thu across
the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

An amplifying shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and into
northern New England Wed into early Thu. Out ahead of this cold
front/amplifying shortwave trough...southerly flow will result in
unseasonably mild temperatures. Despite considerable clouds...high
temps will be well into the 40s to near 50 in a few spots. These
readings are a solid 10+ degrees above normal for mid January
standards.

Given the bulk of the dynamics passing to our north...not expecting
a lot of precipitation and much of this time will feature dry
weather. Nonetheless...a few showers will be possible at times Wed
into Wed night with the focus for them across interior southern New
England closer to the shortwave energy. As colder air begins to work
in from the west...may see precipitation end as a brief period of
light snow showers across interior southern New England early Thu
morning. Any snow accumulations should be a dusting to generally
less than 1 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry &
cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits &
teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Low pressure will rapidly intensifies Thu into Thu night as it
tracks northeast from northern new England into the Canadian
Maritimes. The result will be a shot of much colder air working into
southern new England Thu into Fri. Temps on Thu will likely fall
during the afternoon into the upper 20s and 30s on a stiff gusty
west wind. Low temps Thu night will drop into the upper single
digits and teens. Wind chills will drop to between 5 below and 10
above by daybreak Fri. High temps on Fri will only recover into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure building in from the west
will keep our weather dry...despite the cold temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a
bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is
unlikely.

High pressure quickly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast to start
the weekend as another trough gets carved out across the Great
Lakes. This allows for a quick rebound in temperatures with highs
mainly in the 40s on Sat. The forecast then becomes quite complex
Sat night into Sunday with an amplifying trough to our west with
several pieces of shortwave energy. The problem is that the guidance
is struggling on which piece of energy to amplify and where the
actual surface low develops. Latest guidance tends to develop the
main surface low too far north and late for a significant storm. That
being said...there are a few pieces of guidance including the
CMC/ICON that have a wave of low pressure further south with the
potential for an inverted trough setup. So while a significant storm
appears unlikely...given the amount of shortwave energy to our west
we can not rule out period of snow sometime Sat night into Sun if an
inverted trough sets up. Whether or not this happens remains to be
seen...but it is something to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Light S winds continuing this morning then becoming more
southerly in the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR, but brief MVFR conditions possible overnight across
the interior with a few rain showers. Any snow showers will be
confined to the very highest terrain. Period of LLWS also
expected overnight with modest SW low level jet.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
SHSN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and tonight...High Confidence.

Winds have diminished this morning...but lingering marginal 5
foot seas will persist across the southern waters before
diminishing this afternoon. Modest southwest LLJ develops
tonight with another period of 25-30 kt gusts expected. SCA
conditions hoisted tonight for most waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

#1257044 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Occasional showers continue today favoring east coast metro
areas.

- Hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic will improve today.

- Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula on
Thursday, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased
rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Latest ensembles and global model solutions show a decaying sfc
boundary lingering over SoFlo today, and maybe lifting a little
northward. This will require keeping some POPs through early this
evening, 20-30 percent, favoring the eastern side of SoFlo. 00Z MFL
sounding and model data keep PWATs in the 1.3-1.5" range, for which
potential for isolated rainfall amounts of 1" still remains in the
forecast.

By Wednesday, models show a mid lvl shortwave feature moving around
the base of a deepening trough over the SE CONUS. Both systems are
shown migrating eastward, with overall synoptic flow veering more
southwestward/westward by the afternoon hours. This will further
focus highest chances of rain over the Atlantic coastline and
around the Broward/Palm Beach metro areas. Meanwhile, a more
robust sfc cold front will be pushed southward towards northern
Florida by late Wednesday.

High temperatures for the short term should remain in the upper 70s
to near 80, with overnight lows tonight mainly in the low 60s, with
some mid 60s around the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Model consensus depict a FROPA reaching the area on Thursday, with
rain chances increasing in the Wed night-Thu morning time frame
ahead of the front. Latest timing with this feature places the best
chances of showers during the mid/late morning hours on Thursday
with scattered to numerous showers possible. In general, dynamic
support seem to remain poor as the parent trough/low complex will
continue to pull NE into the eastern seaboard. And with prevailing
cloud cover, the daytime heating component should remain weak enough
to keep mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast attm. This,
however, will continue to be revised and updated as necessary.
50-70 POPs remain in the forecast for Thursday morning.

Winds veer northward Thursday night into Friday as broad high
pressure spreads across the SE CONUS, triggering another cold/dry
air advection event. Coldest temperatures with this robust cold air
mass are expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas
dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas
in the low-mid 30s. Friday afternoon will also remain fairly cool
for being SoFlo, with highs struggling to hit the mid-upper 60s.

Temperatures then gradually warm up during the weekend, but still
remaining around the low 70s in general. Then by Monday, models seem
to suggest another possible cool down with a front approaching the
area. There is still a lot of uncertainty in long range guidance, so
the forecast philosophy beyond the weekend will continue to be
updated with new guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Periods of SHRA continue throughout the day mainly for the
Atlantic terminals. Prevailing NE winds around 10kt expected after
15Z, along with possible periods of MVFR CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will continue until later this morning,
then conditions will quickly subside and remain below highlight
criteria through the middle of the week. A frontal passage is
expected to bring another round of hazardous-level winds and seas
for the Thursday night-Friday timeframe.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

High risk of rip currents expected to continue across the
Atlantic coastline until this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 78 67 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
West Kendall 79 62 80 59 / 50 20 20 20
Opa-Locka 79 66 80 62 / 50 30 30 20
Homestead 80 66 80 62 / 40 20 30 10
Fort Lauderdale 76 66 79 62 / 50 30 30 20
N Ft Lauderdale 76 66 79 62 / 50 40 30 20
Pembroke Pines 78 64 80 61 / 50 30 30 20
West Palm Beach 75 65 78 59 / 40 40 30 20
Boca Raton 76 65 80 60 / 50 40 30 20
Naples 79 64 75 63 / 20 30 20 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651-
670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257043 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model trends continue to favor a more progressive (faster) and
drier solution for the late week system. This translates to a
lower chance for accumulating winter precipitation Thursday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry, while trending breezy and milder today and
Wednesday.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed
night, and passes by to the N/NE of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially
ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and trending breezy and milder
today and Wednesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1030mb) is centered over the Gulf
coast, ridging ENE into the local area will build south across
the southeast today, as low pressure over central Canada remains
well north of the local area. SSW return flow becomes a bit
stronger today, allowing for highs to warm up quickly into the
50s under a mainly sunny sky. A few readings around 60 degrees
are possible across south central VA and NE NC. A few clouds
cross the area tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the cold
front associated with the northern stream system, but otherwise
mainly clear and not as cold tonight with lows in the 30s. Despite
some increasing mid to high clouds Wednesday, mild return flow
will provide highs well into the 50s west of the bay again on
Wednesday (low to mid 50s Lower Eastern Shore), with highs near
60 degrees far SE counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold
front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially
ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

00z/13 models continue to advance a faster, drier solution for
the late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid- Atlantic
late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream
shortwave traverses the Gulf coast. Our area will be in between
these features, with the resultant subsidence allowing for
rapid drying and therefore lower QPF. There is still a chance
for some light overrunning moisture to cross the area, along and
(mainly) behind the crossing cold front Wed night. Precipitation
will mainly fall in the form of light rain showers. While the
faster arrival of colder air would allow for a changeover to
snow showers as precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning,
it is increasingly apparent that the colder air will be chasing
the departing moisture, with the developing surface low crossing
near of just south of the Mason-Dixon line as it exits to the
NNE. This is a pattern that rarely results in any tangible
snowfall across most of our region. For its part, the latest
NBM remains a bit higher than latest model consensus, likely
still at least in part reflecting the previous model consensus
of this past weekend. Would therefore not be surprised to see
these chances drop off completely as we get closer. Thus, while
some light snow is possible before precipitation tapers off,
have removed any snow accumulations from the digital database
and expect very limited to no impacts from snow with this
system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures
expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry
throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some
light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Becoming rather cold and breezy/windy in strong cold advection
in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage Thursday. Look for
highs to struggle to get out of the 30s N and in the 40s S, even
w/ diminishing cloud cover. Cold w/ lows in the teens and 20s
Thu night. Even as winds diminish, wind chills in the teens are
expected Friday morning. Not quite cold enough for Cold Weather
Advisories but close, and certainly a stark contrast from the
warmer temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

The rest of the extended period will primarily feature below
normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. An upper level
ridge persists across the west coast of North America, keeping
an upper level trough in place from central Canada into the SE
CONUS, with resultant NW flow allowing for another influx of
Arctic air in the wake of a second, reinforcing Arctic frontal
passage over the weekend. Guidance is still keying in on a pair
of weak disturbances, one ahead of and one just behind that next
strong cold frontal passage. At this point, the "best" chance
for any precipitation looks to be on Sunday, though PoPs remain
low at only 15-20%. The overall pattern still appears too
progressive to tap into any southern stream moisture,
reinforcing the developing cold, dry pattern. Another round of
cold temperatures follows behind that front for Sunday night
through early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals will prevail
through the 06Z/13 TAF period. Light W-SW winds average 5-7 kt
overnight under a mainly clear sky. Expect SW winds to increase
a bit on Tuesday late morning, gusting to 15-20 kt by afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected across the mid-Atlantic
through midweek. Increasing low-level wind shear is expected
ahead of an approaching cold front late Tuesday evening into Wed
morning. The front will cross the region Wed evening, with some
light rain possible behind the front late Wed night into
Thursday morning. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be
possible early Thu morning, as a secondary front crosses the
region, ushering in a much colder airmass for the late week
period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions expected tonight due to gusty SW winds.

- A series of cold fronts will cross the region late this week
with strong SCA conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

High pressure is situated south of the waters this morning. SW winds
are generally 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt, but these
winds will subside later this morning into this afternoon. The
aforementioned high translates offshore by this evening as strong
low pressure advances through SE Canada, tightening the pressure
gradient over the area. In addition, a SW low-level jet still looks
to overspread the waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Southerly
flow picks up again this afternoon but should remain sub-SCA until
~00z/7 PM this evening. After 00z, winds become SW and increase to
15-20 kt on the Chesapeake Bay with some potential for 20-25 kt
sustained winds on the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt are also expected. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles
through mid-morning Wednesday. Sub-SCA SW flow should then prevail
later Wednesday into the first part of Wednesday night. A strong
cold front is then expected to swing through the region early
Thursday morning as low pressure develops over New England. This
front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW, along with a
substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt for most of the
waters. These elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as
cold air advection maximizes. An additional round of Small Craft
Advisories are very likely during this period. While forecasted
gusts currently fall just shy of Gale-force, cannot rule this out on
the ocean and will continue to monitor over the next few forecast
cycles. Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning before
elevated SW flow potentially returns Friday night/Saturday morning
ahead of another cold front. The current model consensus pushes this
front through overnight Saturday and additional SCA headlines are
probable as winds become NW.

Seas are 2-3.5 ft this morning, with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas
and waves increase to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, tonight
through Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return early
Thursday morning and continue into Thursday night in the wake
of the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

#1257041 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
232 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Below normal temperatures are expected for several days behind a
strong cold front on Wednesday. Friday morning will be the
coldest this week with a medium to high chance (60-80 percent)
of an inland hard freeze (25F or lower).

- Hazardous marine conditions will develop behind the next cold
front on Wednesday night and Thursday with a medium to high
chance (60-80 percent) of gale force northwest wind gusts west
of Apalachicola.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A high pressure ridge axis across the area today will lead to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with just some passing high
cloud cover. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper
50s to mid 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Two reinforcing cold frontal passages are expected. The first one
will arrive starting late Wednesday, and the second one will
arrive on Saturday or Saturday night. There will probably be some
scattered light showers in advance of the front on Wednesday, but
moisture will be limited with both fronts. Any rain that occurs
will be on the light side. Breezy conditions are likely on
Thursday behind the first front with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph
range.

The main impact to the local area will be cold temperatures. There
is a medium to high chance of a hard freeze (25F or lower) for
inland areas on Friday morning. Additional light freezes are
expected for portions of the area each morning thereafter into
early next week.

Despite all the cold temperatures, there is currently no wintry
precip expected in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Surface high pressure ridge axis gradually moves south of the
terminals on Tuesday. Light and variable winds become north
on Tuesday with a tendency to become more westerly at DHN and
ECP during the afternoon. With the weak pressure gradient in
place, winds generally AOB 5 kts. VFR conditions w/SCT cirrus
becoming BKN late Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A high pressure ridge axis will move south directly across the
waters by this evening, bringing a continued decrease in wind.
Once high pressure moves further south on Wednesday, westerly
breezes will freshen in advance of a strong reinforcing cold
frontal passage on Wednesday night. Northwesterly gusts near gale
force will follow that front on Thursday with the strongest winds
west of Apalachicola. Winds will quickly decrease on Thursday
night and Friday as a high center passes directly across the
waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the
waters on Saturday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The high pressure center at the heart of the existing dry air mass
will pass directly across the districts today. This will result in
a combination of places with critically low humidity below 25
percent and low daytime dispersion due to the lack of wind and low
mixing heights. On Wednesday, dispersion will increase markedly
with higher values resulting from development of gusty southwest
winds in advance of a strong reinforcing cold frontal passage late
Wednesday. Strong gusty northerly winds will follow that front on
Thursday, supporting another day of high dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days. Any rain
that falls in the next week will not be hydrologically significant.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when
they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 41 60 42 / 0 10 30 10
Panama City 61 45 63 42 / 0 30 20 30
Dothan 59 41 59 37 / 0 20 20 10
Albany 60 38 59 37 / 0 10 20 10
Valdosta 62 39 59 40 / 0 10 40 10
Cross City 64 44 64 43 / 0 10 30 40
Apalachicola 60 45 61 44 / 0 30 40 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257042 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier conditions expected through the week.

- Showers are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The front that pushed through on Sunday is still lingering just
south of Florida. This front will lift slightly north today allowing
for some extra cloud cover over the area. A shower or two will also
be possible in SW Florida. By Wednesday we will see a much stronger
cold front heading our way. This front will push through Wednesday
Night bringing scattered showers as it passes by. Colder air will
start to filter in behind the front with highs north of I-4 staying
below 60 degrees. Our coldest morning so far this season will be on
Friday. For our inland areas we could see freezing temperatures
as far south as Hardee and Desoto Counties with the Nature Coast
getting into the mid to upper 20`s. Highs on Friday will stay in
the 50`s for almost all of us except SW Florida which could touch
60 degrees for an hour or two in the afternoon.

We will slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday before another cold
front slides through on Sunday morning. We won`t be seeing any rain
with this front but it will bring temperatures back down into the
30`s for most of us Monday morning. Highs on Monday will once again
be stuck in the 50`s north of I-4 with the low 60`s everywhere
else.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

We will be seeing a lower cloud deck throughout the TAF period for
most of the period however this cloud deck looks to primary stay
between 3,500 and 5,000 feet. This will allow for mainly VFR
conditions but cant rule out an occasional drop to MVFR CIGS.
Winds will remain out of the north through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Winds will remain out of the north for Tuesday and Wednesday with
speeds around 10 knots. We will see a strong cold front slide
through Wednesday night that will bring some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the Gulf. Behind it winds will increase
quickly peaking at 20 to 25 knots by Thursday afternoon. Winds
will not remain that high for long as high pressure starts to move
overhead. This will start to decrease the winds late Thursday
night and by Friday afternoon should only be around 5 knots. Winds
will shift more easterly as the high pressure moves away on
Saturday between 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

We will see dry and cooler conditions for our Tuesday and
the early part of Wednesday. A strong cold front will push through
the area Wednesday night bringing scattered showers to the area.
Behind the front we will see breezy conditions on Thursday with gust
to 20 to 25 mph. Drier air will filter in Thursday night creating
critical RHs by Friday afternoon but winds will have calmed down by
then. This means a Red Flag Warning should not be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 58 69 57 / 10 10 20 80
FMY 78 63 75 60 / 10 20 10 60
GIF 73 58 70 54 / 10 30 20 60
SRQ 72 58 70 57 / 10 20 10 80
BKV 70 51 68 47 / 10 10 20 70
SPG 70 60 70 60 / 10 20 20 80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

#1257040 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
222 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model trends continue to favor a more progressive (faster) and
drier solution for the late week system. This translates to a
lower chance for accumulating winter precipitation Thursday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry, while trending breezy and milder today and
Wednesday.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed
night, and passes by to the N/NE of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially
ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and trending breezy and milder
today and Wednesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1030mb) is centered over the Gulf
coast, ridging ENE into the local area will build south across
the southeast today, as low pressure over central Canada remains
well north of the local area. SSW Return flow becomes a bit
stronger today, allowing for highs to warm up quickly into the
50s today under a mainly sunny sky. A few readings around 60
degrees are possible across south central VA and NE NC. A few
clouds cross the area tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the
cold front associated with the northern stream system. Despite
some increasing clouds Wednesday, mild return flow will provide
another mild day on Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s west
of the bay, to near 60 degrees far SE counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold
front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night,
potentially ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday
morning.

00z/13 models have continued with a faster, drier solution for
the late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid-Atlantic
late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream
shortwave crosses the Gulf coast. Our area will be in between
these features, with the resultant subsidence allowing for rapid
drying and therefore lower QPF. There will be a chance for some
light overrunning moisture to cross the area, along and (mainly)
behind the crossing cold front Wed night. Precipitation will
mainly fall in the form of light rain showers. While the faster
arrival of colder air does allow for a changeover to snow
showers as precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning, it
is increasingly looking as if the colder air will be chasing the
departing moisture, with the developing surface low crossing
near of just south of the Mason-Dixon line as it exits. This is
a pattern that rarely results in any tangible snowfall across
most of our region. The latest NBM remains a bit higher than
latest model consensus, likely still at least in part reflecting
the previous model consensus of this past weekend. Would
therefore not be surprised to see these chances drop off completely
as we get closer. Thus, while some light snow is possible
before precipitation tapers off, have removed any snow
accumulations from the digital database and expect very limited
to no impacts from snow with this system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures
expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry
throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some
light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Becoming rather cold and breezy/windy in strong cold advection
in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage Thursday. Look for
highs to struggle to get out of the 30s N and in the 40s S, even
w/ diminishing cloud cover. Cold w/ lows in the teens and 20s
Thu night. Even as winds diminish, wind chills in the teens are
expected Friday morning. Not quite cold enough for Cold Weather
Advisories but close, and certainly a stark contrast from the
warmer temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

The rest of the extended period will primarily feature below
normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. An upper level
ridge persists across the west coast of North America, keeping
an upper level trough in place from central Canada into the SE
CONUS, with resultant NW flow allowing for another influx of
Arctic air in the wake of a second, reinforcing Arctic frontal
passage over the weekend. Guidance is still keying in on a pair
of weak disturbances, one ahead of and one just behind that next
strong cold frontal passage. At this point, the "best" chance
for any precipitation looks to be on Sunday, though PoPs remain
low at only 15-20%. The overall pattern still appears too
progressive to tap into any southern stream moisture,
reinforcing the developing cold, dry pattern. Another round of
cold temperatures follows behind that front for Sunday night
through early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals will prevail
through the 06Z/13 TAF period. Light W-SW winds average 5-7 kt
overnight under a mainly clear sky. Expect SW winds to increase
a bit on Tuesday late morning, gusting to 15-20 kt by afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected across the mid-Atlantic
through midweek. Increasing low-level wind shear is expected
ahead of an approaching cold front late Tuesday evening into Wed
morning. The front will cross the region Wed evening, with some
light rain possible behind the front late Wed night into
Thursday morning. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be
possible early Thu morning, as a secondary front crosses the
region, ushering in a much colder airmass for the late week
period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions expected tonight due to gusty SW winds.

- A series of cold fronts will cross the region late this week
with strong SCA conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

High pressure is situated south of the waters this morning. SW winds
are generally 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt, but these
winds will subside later this morning into this afternoon. The
aforementioned high translates offshore by this evening as strong
low pressure advances through SE Canada, tightening the pressure
gradient over the area. In addition, a SW low-level jet still looks
to overspread the waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Southerly
flow picks up again this afternoon but should remain sub-SCA until
~00z/7 PM this evening. After 00z, winds become SW and increase to
15-20 kt on the Chesapeake Bay with some potential for 20-25 kt
sustained winds on the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt are also expected. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Cape Charles
through mid-morning Wednesday. Sub-SCA SW flow should then prevail
later Wednesday into the first part of Wednesday night. A strong
cold front is then expected to swing through the region early
Thursday morning as low pressure develops over New England. This
front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the NW, along with a
substantial increase in the wind speeds to 20-25 kt for most of the
waters. These elevated winds likely persist into Thursday night as
cold air advection maximizes. An additional round of Small Craft
Advisories are very likely during this period. While forecasted
gusts currently fall just shy of Gale-force, cannot rule this out on
the ocean and will continue to monitor over the next few forecast
cycles. Winds quickly subside around sunrise Friday morning before
elevated SW flow potentially returns Friday night/Saturday morning
ahead of another cold front. The current model consensus pushes this
front through overnight Saturday and additional SCA headlines are
probable as winds become NW.

Seas are 2-3.5 ft this morning, with 1-2 ft waves in the bay. Seas
and waves increase to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, tonight
through Wednesday morning. Elevated seas and waves return early
Thursday morning and continue into Thursday night in the wake
of the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

#1257039 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
205 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Model trends continue to favor a more progressive (faster) and
drier solution for the late week system. This translates to a
lower chance for accumulating winter precipitation Thursday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Remaining dry, while trending breezy and milder today and
Wednesday.

2) Low pressure develops along an approaching cold front Wed
night, and passes by to the N/NE of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night, potentially
ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday morning.

3) Turning colder, with below normal temperatures expected from
Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry throughout the
period, though there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and trending breezy and milder
today and Wednesday.

Strong sfc high pressure (~1030mb) is centered over the Gulf
coast, ridging ENE into the local area will build south across
the southeast today, as low pressure over central Canada remains
well north of the local area. SSW Return flow becomes a bit
stronger today, allowing for highs to warm up quickly into the
50s today under a mainly sunny sky. A few readings around 60
degrees are possible across south central VA and NE NC. A few
clouds cross the area tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the
cold front associated with the northern stream system. Despite
some increasing clouds Wednesday, mild return flow will provide
another mild day on Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s west
of the bay, to near 60 degrees far SE counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure develops along an approaching cold
front Wed night, and passes by N of the area on Thursday. Some
light precipitation is possible late Wednesday night,
potentially ending as a brief period of light snow Thursday
morning.

00z/13 models have continued with a faster, drier solution for
the late week system. A potent northern stream shortwave will
dig south from the Ohio Valley into the northern mid-Atlantic
late Wednesday through Thursday, as a dampening southern stream
shortwave crosses the Gulf coast. Our area will be in between
these features, with the resultant subsidence allowing for rapid
drying and therefore lower QPF. There will be a chance for some
light overrunning moisture to cross the area, along and (mainly)
behind the crossing cold front Wed night. Precipitation will
mainly fall in the form of light rain showers. While the faster
arrival of colder air does allow for a changeover to snow
showers as precipitation tapers off early Thursday morning, it
is increasingly looking as if the colder air will be chasing the
departing moisture, with the developing surface low crossing
near of just south of the Mason-Dixon line as it exits. This is
a pattern that rarely results in any tangible snowfall across
most of our region. The latest NBM remains a bit higher than
latest model consensus, likely still at least in part reflecting
the previous model consensus of this past weekend. Would
therefore not be surprised to see these chances drop off completely
as we get closer. Thus, while some light snow is possible
before precipitation tapers off, have removed any snow
accumulations from the digital database and expect very limited
to no impacts from snow with this system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder, with below normal temperatures
expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry
throughout the period, though there is a low-end chance for some
light precipitation both Saturday and Sunday.

Becoming rather cold and breezy/windy in strong cold advection
in the wake of the Arctic frontal passage Thursday. Look for
highs to struggle to get out of the 30s N and in the 40s S, even
w/ diminishing cloud cover. Cold w/ lows in the teens and 20s
Thu night. Even as winds diminish, wind chills in the teens are
expected Friday morning. Not quite cold enough for Cold Weather
Advisories but close, and certainly a stark contrast from the
warmer temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

The rest of the extended period will primarily feature below
normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions. An upper level
ridge persists across the west coast of North America, keeping
an upper level trough in place from central Canada into the SE
CONUS, with resultant NW flow allowing for another influx of
Arctic air in the wake of a second, reinforcing Arctic frontal
passage over the weekend. Guidance is still keying in on a pair
of weak disturbances, one ahead of and one just behind that next
strong cold frontal passage. At this point, the "best" chance
for any precipitation looks to be on Sunday, though PoPs remain
low at only 15-20%. The overall pattern still appears too
progressive to tap into any southern stream moisture,
reinforcing the developing cold, dry pattern. Another round of
cold temperatures follows behind that front for Sunday night
through early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals will prevail
through the 06Z/13 TAF period. Light W-SW winds average 5-7 kt
overnight under a mainly clear sky. Expect SW winds to increase
a bit on Tuesday late morning, gusting to 15-20 kt by afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected across the mid-Atlantic
through midweek. Increasing low-level wind shear is expected
ahead of an approaching cold front late Tuesday evening into Wed
morning. The front will cross the region Wed evening, with some
light rain possible behind the front late Wed night into
Thursday morning. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be
possible early Thu morning, as a secondary front crosses the
region, ushering in a much colder airmass for the late week
period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EST Monday...

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail through Tuesday evening with SW winds
as high pressure to the southwest influences the area.

- A brief period of SCA conditions likely Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with increased SW winds and seas.

- A series of cold fronts will cross the region late this week with
strong SCA conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

The latest surface analysis shows a strong ~1034 mb high pressure
centered over the southeast CONUS, influencing the local waters and
allowing for sub-SCA conditions across all waters currently. SW
winds 10-15 kt and seas of 1-3 ft (waves ~1 ft) were observed at the
time of writing. Tonight into Tuesday, the high will weaken some and
translate offshore from a strong low pressure system moves over the
Great Lakes. Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds, around
10-15 kt and 1-3 ft, through the day Tuesday.

Then, with the approaching low pressure system and decreased high
pressure, a strong LLJ around 40-50 kt will increase the winds and
seas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Confidence has increased
in SCA conditions with SW winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to
25 kt in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles. The
southern coastal waters will likely see lower wind speeds at 10-15
kt. Local wind probs show 70-90% probs of sustained 18 kt gusts in
the middle bay, with 40-50% probs in the lower bay and mouth of the
bay. In the northern coastal waters, probs have increased to 50-80%
probs of 25 kt gusts. Additionally, seas and waves will increase to
3-5 ft north of Cape Charles (2-3 ft south) and 2-4 ft in the Ches.
Bay (highest waves in the middle bay). After collaboration with
neighboring offices, have held off on issuing SCA at this time, but
will likely need issuing in the next package if trends remain.

Then on Wednesday, a dry cold front will gradually cross the local
area by Thursday morning, with a stronger secondary front moving
through the area during the day Thursday. SW winds on Wednesday will
to be NW behind the fronts, increasing during the day Thursday to
likely SCA conditions. The surge of strong CAA may be slightly
lagged, impacting the area Thursday night, which would allow winds
to increase again. Local wind probs have decreased slightly for gale
forced gusts Thursday night, now at 30-50% for the coastal waters.
Will continue to monitor the trends with future forecasts. Another
series of cold fronts may impact the local waters this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257037 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
131 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The first key message was updated to mention only this
afternoon for low relative humidity values. For the second key
message, wind gusts should remain within Small Craft Advisory
levels Thursday into Thursday evening. The risk for Gale force
wind gusts has diminished.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry high pressure will remain across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina today, yielding low relative humidity values this
afternoon.

2) Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions possible as
gusty winds and low humidity values arrive behind a mostly dry
cold front Thursday into Friday.

3) Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows
in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry high pressure will remain across southeast
Georgia and South Carolina today, yielding low relative humidity
values this afternoon.

Dry sfc high pressure will linger across the Southeast U.S.
today. Forecast soundings indicate that mixing will range
between 2.5 to 3 kft this afternoon. As mixing begins, sfc
dewpoints should remain in the 20s through mid-day. However,
weak southwest winds may result in a slow increase in dewpoints
from south and near the coast, increasing into the 30s. Minimum
RH values should occur during the early afternoon hours, before
the dewpoint recovery. Min RH values are forecast to range from
the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s along the coast. High
temperatures are forecast to range around 10 degrees warmer than
values reached on Monday, generally in the low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions
possible as gusty winds and low humidity values arrive behind a
mostly dry cold front Thursday into Friday.

On Thursday a rex block will be established over the Western
United States allowing for a long wave trough axis to amplify
across the Eastern United States. In the mid-levels of the
atmosphere, a closed mid-level low will be moving east across
the Great Lakes with a strong push of lower heights approaching
the area from the west (120 m height falls in 12 hrs). This
magnitude of DCVA/ height falls is rather impressive, but
precipitation chances are limited (<15%) with the surface cold
front Thursday morning/ afternoon. There are several reasons for
this. The main reason being the Wednesday wave. This wave will
be moving away early Thursday with the LFQ of the subtropical
jet streak moving off of the coast. During this type of setup,
most of the precipitation gets going off of the South Carolina/
North Carolina coast.

Behind the surface cold front, strong low level CAA will take
hold with 850 mb temperatures dropping from 0 degrees C to -8
degrees C. This, in combination with peak mixing and downslope
flow in the low and mid levels, will likely result in wind gusts
Thursday afternoon on the higher end of the guidance envelope,
with 25 to 30 mph gusts likely, with some gusts to 35 mph
possible over land. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be
necessary with probabilities of reaching 25 kt around 55%.

Additionally, dewpoints will rapidly fall behind the cold front
allowing relative humidity values to approach 25%. It should be
noted that the Wambaw and Glissons Pond RAWS sites have both
had fuel moisture values in the single digits Sunday and Monday
afternoons.

Surface high pressure will settle overhead Friday, with
dewpoints likely mixing out to near the single digits in the
afternoon. The latest LREF probabilities show a 50 - 70% chance
of RH values less than 25% away from the immediate coast. Winds
will be much weaker Friday though given the proximity of the
surface high pressure to coastal South Carolina and Georgia.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Very cold temperatures will occur Friday
morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the
beaches.

Surface high pressure now looks to move east faster, or allow
winds to decouple quicker Thursday night/ Friday morning. As
such, low temperatures will likely be in the upper teens for
areas of rural Georgia away from the coast (and closer to the
surface high pressure), and low 20s for the rest of coastal
South Carolina. Right at the beaches (including the Charleston
Peninsula), expect lows in the upper 20s. Wind Chill to
temperature spread will likely be greatest Thursday evening,
with the differential becoming less and less as winds slacken by
Friday morning. Still though, enough wind is forecast that a
Cold Weather Advisory might be required for some of the area
Friday morning. Rural Georgia has ~ a 60- 80% chance of needing
a Cold Weather Advisory, while coastal South Carolina and
Georgia has ~ a 20- 50% chance of needing a Cold Weather
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through
06Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will continue for
KCHS, KJZI and KSAV through late week. NW winds could gust to
around 20 kts in the wake of cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Broad high pressure will remain across the marine zones today
and tonight. The pattern should yield around 5 kts of wind
today, gradually increasing to 5 to 10 kts tonight. Seas are
forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft.

Wednesday, the marine zones will remain between a developing
low pressure system over the Gulf Stream and a cold front over
the western Carolinas. A weak gradient on the west side of the
low keeps benign marine conditions in place despite increased
shower chances.

A strong cold front will cross the area Wednesday night.
Northwest winds should develop in the wake of the front, with
gusts around 25 kts across the Atlantic waters of GA and SC on
Thursday into Thursday evening. As a result, wave heights will
build during the daylight hours on Thursday, peaking between 3-5
ft across the nearshore with 6ft beyond 30 NM Thursday evening.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all marine
zones outside the CHS Harbor Thursday and Thursday evening. The
center of a large area of high pressure will arrive on Friday,
supporting winds around 10 kts with 1-2 ft seas. Winds should
gradually strengthen as a dry cold front sweeps across the
region on Saturday, with gusty winds and building seas, possibly
reaching Small Craft Conditions across a portion of the waters.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257038 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Occasional showers today especially across the east coast
metro.

- Hazardous winds and seas in the Atlantic and Gulf waters today.

- Another strong cold front could drop across the peninsula late
this week, bringing reinforcing cold air and more increased rain
chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The frontal boundary has worked its way through the area and is
now stalling over the Florida Straits. This boundary will help to
keep some chances for showers later today, tonight and tomorrow.
Showers are expected to be light and should not strengthen into
storms as the atmosphere is too stable with dry air aloft. High
temperatures are expected in the upper 70s today across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

The cold front continues to work its way southwards through South
Florida and slowly wash out through the morning hours on Monday.
This boundary will provide a lifting mechanism that will be enough
to spark some rain showers across the region (mainly the southern
half of the area and east coast metro) late tonight and through
Monday morning. Even with some shower development, accumulations are
not expected to cause any concerns with the latest forecast
highlighting no more than than 0.3-0.5" of rain across South
Florida. Highest accumulations are expected across the east coast
metro with little to no rain for the Gulf coast since winds shifting
to out of the northeast will create some coastal convergence effects
along the east coast. Either way, no impactful rainfall is expected
and any amount will help alleviate at least a little of the ongoing
drought. There will be an uptick in winds as well through the
morning hours, but likely not gusting to more than 15-20 mph.

Heading towards the mid-week period, the frontal boundary is
expected to stall out over the Florida Straits and there won`t be a
strong enough push of drier air into South Florida as the front
loses its strength. Thus, slight chances for a few showers will
continue on Tuesday, although again any accumulation will be low.

High temperatures for the next couple of days are expected in the
upper 70s to near 80, with overnight lows Tuesday morning expected
in the upper 50s to low 60s for SW Florida and the low to mid 60s
for the east coast metro.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

The front will remain stalled out over the Florida Straits
through the entire mid-week period, with its presence helping keep
isolated chances for showers in place across the local Atlantic
waters and the east coast through Wednesday.

Moving forward into the late week period, the pattern starts to
undergo some much bigger changes. Ensemble guidance shows synoptic-
scale troughing amplifying across the Eastern Seaboard by the end of
the week as meridional jet-stream flow occurs over the Great Plains
states. This trough has potential to cover almost the entire Eastern
Seaboard from Maine down to Central Florida. As this trough
amplifies, near-surface flow in South Florida will shift to a
southwesterly direction on Wednesday, which will increase warm air
advection and moisture advection over the area for shower
development (PWATs around 1.5"). By Thursday and into Thursday
night, the attendant cold front from the trough will rush southwards
and cause an increase in rain chances again on Thursday with PoPs
around 40% before a much colder and drier air mass settles in behind
the front on Thursday night. This front could drop temps late
Thursday night into the 30s and 40s across the region. Even with
this more active weather pattern, impacts from rainfall are not
expected so the primary item to monitor will be the colder
temperatures. High temperatures across the region on Friday may
not reach 70 due to this colder air.

The forecast becomes less certain heading into the weekend, but
conditions are expected to be much calmer for Friday and Saturday as
a more stable/zonal pattern and the abundantly dry air mass settle
in. Beyond that, guidance hints at another front possibility for the
Sun-Mon time frame, but this is highly uncertain given that it is at
the very end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Periods of SHRA continue throughout the day mainly for the
Atlantic terminals. Prevailing NE winds around 10kt expected after
15Z, along with possible periods of MVFR CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Conditions improve this afternoon in the wake of the front, but
lingering hazardous conditions are still possible through this
afternoon with seas up to 7 feet. Quieter conditions are then
expected through mid-week, although some isolated to scattered
showers will remain possible.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1154 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

A strong northerly wind surge will promote a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic coastline today. This high risk is
likely to last into mid-week as winds shift to an east-northeast
direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 78 67 80 62 / 30 20 30 20
West Kendall 80 62 81 58 / 30 20 30 20
Opa-Locka 79 66 81 62 / 30 20 30 20
Homestead 80 66 81 62 / 30 10 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 76 65 78 60 / 40 30 30 20
N Ft Lauderdale 77 66 78 61 / 40 30 30 20
Pembroke Pines 78 64 80 60 / 30 20 30 20
West Palm Beach 76 65 78 58 / 40 30 30 30
Boca Raton 78 65 80 60 / 40 30 30 20
Naples 79 64 76 62 / 20 20 30 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-651-
670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257036 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Several Freeze Events through Early Next Week

- Hard Freeze Inland & Coastal Freeze Likely Friday morning.
Wind chills in the 20s Friday morning - Cold Weather Advisory
potential for portions of northeast FL.

- Consecutive Nights of Inland Freezes from Fri Night through next
Tue Night.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday & Thursday night.
Potential for gale force gusts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Low level cloudiness and elevated northerly winds near the coast
will gradually decrease this morning as a coastal trough over the
local Atlantic waters edges farther east. A few sprinkles will be
possible, mainly across northeast FL, early this morning, as a
mid level short wave trough passes overhead.

Trending warmer today, less breezy and with less persistent cloud
cover for most as high temperatures near 60 across inland southeast
GA to the upper 60s toward north-central FL. Coastal locales will
top out in the upper 50s across the Golden Isles to low 60s along
the First Coast. More sunshine across southeast GA and the Suwannee
River Valley today compared to yesterday, but mostly to partly
cloudy skies will linger along the coast and across northeast
generally south of I-10 corridor.

Cloudiness increases from the south and west overnight as a broad
surface forms offshore of the FL Atlantic coast as a longer wave
mid/upper level trough deepens across the western Gulf. Low
temperatures will trend warmer tonight compared to this morning and
range by 15-20 degrees across the local area from the upper 30s
across far inland southeast GA north and west of Waycross to the mid
50s toward Flagler Beach. A few light showers and sprinkles will
also be possible overnight mainly across northeast Florida as the
surface low that develops near the southeast FL Atlantic coast
tracks northward, east of the local area, into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

On Wednesday, an upper shortwave will pass over the area as it
traverses a deepening longwave trough over the eastern US. This will
bring isolated to scattered showers to the area. Limited moisture
will keep rainfall amounts light and won`t bring much relief to the
severe drought. Around seasonable temperatures under mostly cloudy
skies expected on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
An arctic cold front will pass through Wednesday night bringing
another round of showers before shifting into central FL by Thursday
morning. Much colder and drier air filters into the area in the wake
of the front as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Despite
mostly sunny skies, temperatures will struggle under the brisk
northwest winds and strong cold air advection. Afternoon
temperatures will only reach into the upper 40s in inland SE GA to
the upper 50s in north-central FL. High pressure builds overhead
allowing winds to calm by Friday morning. Arctic air, calming winds,
and clear skies will allow for a hard freeze to develop over inland
areas Thursday night as lows fall into the low 20s over SE GA and
mid 20s over inland NE FL with a light freeze appearing more likely
over downtown Jacksonville to the Jax Beaches where lows will fall
to the upper 20s to the low 30s. Cold Weather Advisory conditions
will be possible for NE FL with temperatures/wind chills in the
low/mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Friday, high pressure remains over the area maintaining dry
conditions. Another cold night under mostly clear skies will allow
lows to fall to low/mid 30s over inland SE GA and portions of inland
NE FL west of the St Johns river. Another trough will dive south and
east to the Gulf coast this weekend with another cold front moving
through the area Sunday. Not expecting much moisture or showers
ahead of the front with partly cloudy skies and southwest winds
Saturday becoming mostly sunny and winds northwesterly Sunday with
another potential freeze downtown and potential hard freeze over
inland SE GA Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

MVFR stratus deck will continue to impact the terminals over the
next few hours at times, but the recent trend of bases starting
to rise is expected to continue. Still anticipate further
ceiling base rise through 12-15z as the gradient between the
high to the WNW and the low level coastal trough offshore of the
local coast weakens. Gusty NNE to NNW winds at the coast will
also relax into the afternoon. Weakening surface high pressure
builds across the terminals this evening from the Gulf Coast
states as NNW to WNW winds subside below 6 kts. Multi-layered
cloudiness increases tonight with the approach of the next
surface front. After 06z, low stratus may cause restrictions
mainly across FL terminals as a trough axis begins to lift
northward from south FL ahead of the approaching cold front.
Less than a 20% chance of showers near SGJ 06-12z.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated northerly winds across the local waters will gradually
weaken through today as a coastal trough breaks down and shifts
farther offshore as high pressure builds across the the Gulf coast
states. The high will extend across the local waters tonight into
Wednesday as a broad surface low tracks northward well east of the
local Atlantic coast. Westerly winds increase Wednesday night as a
strong cold front moves across the region. Small craft advisory
conditions return Thursday trailing the frontal passage and continue
into Thursday night. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure
builds directly over the local waters. The high will shift southeast
Saturday as a weaker, dry cold front moves across the waters with a
surge in northwest to north winds behind the frontal passage late
Saturday into Sunday.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for southeast GA
and northeast FL beaches with lingering longshore currents. Low
risk Wednesday under offshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

-Areas of low dispersions Tuesday
-High dispersions Thursday

High pressure over the southeast US will sink southward into the
Gulf today. Weak surface and transport winds will create low daytime
dispersions today. Lingering dry airmass will create MinRH values of
22-27 percent over inland Georgia northwest of US84. On Wednesday,
west-southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching front
resulting in good dispersions. Light scattered showers will move
through the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop in the wake of the front bringing high
dispersions area-wide on Thursday. A cold and dry airmass filters in
for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the 20s. Elevated
Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast Georgia on
Thursday due to breezy winds and low RHs.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
this morning or Tonight. Freeze and frost are expected for inland SE
GA this morning. A widespread freeze is forecast for Thursday night.
A light inland freeze expected Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 38 58 39 / 0 0 40 10
SSI 58 45 61 44 / 10 10 40 20
JAX 61 46 63 45 / 0 10 30 20
SGJ 63 51 65 48 / 10 20 30 40
GNV 64 48 65 46 / 0 10 30 40
OCF 66 50 65 47 / 0 20 30 50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
120-220-322-422-522.
GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ153-165.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257035 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1208 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances today, ending from west to
east

- Wind chill values in the 30s area-wide Thursday and Friday
mornings

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Low to medium (20-50%) chances of rain will continue through this
afternoon as a mid-level low moves west to east. As the low moves
off to the east late this afternoon into tonight, a cold front will
bring drier air back to South Texas. The dry air will persist
Wednesday through the end of the work week. Morning lows will be
chilly Thursday and Friday with wind chills in the mid to upper 30s
expected. Otherwise, generally quiet weather is expected with some
sunshine finally returning by the middle of the week. Another cold
front will swing through Friday night into Saturday. Most locations
will stay dry with this upcoming front, though some showers are
possible across the waters and maybe along the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. A few showers
will continue to move across South Texas through this afternoon from
west to east. Have continued a mention of showers for LRD and COT
through 14Z-16Z. Expect showers will be possible later for ALI and
VCT so added a TEMPO in from 16Z-20Z. A few light showers are also
possible for CRP this afternoon as well, but have left this out of
the TAF due to low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze will continue through
Wednesday. Winds will increase again to fresh to strong (BF 5-6)
Wednesday night into Thursday as another cold front moves across the
waters, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) once again Thursday night.
There is a low (15-20%) chance of showers through this afternoon,
with another low (less than 20%) chance Saturday as another front
approaches the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Fire weather conditions are not expected today as relative humidity
values remain above 40%. A front will usher in drier air (minimum
relative humidity values less than 30%) for Wednesday through the
end of the week which, when combined with ERC values in the 50th to
74th percentile, could lead to elevated fire weather conditions
through the end of the work week. Light winds will keep us below
thresholds for critical fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 64 46 75 44 / 10 0 0 0
Victoria 64 44 73 38 / 20 0 0 0
Laredo 63 45 76 42 / 30 0 0 0
Alice 65 44 76 42 / 20 0 0 0
Rockport 64 51 73 47 / 10 0 0 0
Cotulla 64 42 76 39 / 30 0 0 0
Kingsville 64 44 77 43 / 10 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 63 52 73 51 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257034 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
104 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Strong, gusty north winds producing windy conditions and
hazardous boating conditions along the Volusia and north Brevard
coasts will decrease this evening

- Rain chances increase areawide Wednesday into Thursday ahead of
the next cold front but amounts look limited

- Sharply colder air Thursday night with a wind chill; Freezing
temperatures possible north of Orlando Friday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Thru tonight...Inverted coastal trough developed just offshore the
Volusia coast with strong and gusty north winds along the coast
and a large area of low-based stratocu clouds that spread SW into
Lake/Seminole counties. After sunset, the NE winds along the Space
and Treasure coasts will back and all areas will become uniformly
north with speeds decreasing even along the Volusia coast.
Isolated showers over the Atlc may reach the Treasure coast but
most areas will remain dry. Quite a range of overnight lows, from
the lower 50s across Lake/interior Volusia to the mid 60s along
the immediate Treasure coast.

Tue-Wed (modified)...The old front now stationary to our south
will begin to lift back to the north along with an increase in
moisture overspreading southern sections with PWATs rising up to
1.50". This should produce isolated showers over the southern and
coastal sections. Elsewhere over the north interior, conditions
will remain mostly dry on Tuesday. Max temperatures recover a bit
more, reaching the low to mid 70s. Attention turns to a mid level
shortwave rounding the base of a deepening trough by midweek, as
the features both progress toward the southeast U.S. That sfc
front lifts a little further north on Wednesday, preceding a
series of cold fronts advancing toward FL. This old boundary,
along with additional forcing arriving from the north, will
combine with 1.4-1.5" PW to raise rain chances to 25-40% Wednesday
afternoon. The highest coverage of rain and timing remains a bit
uncertain, but following the consensus of guidance, rain chances
climb to 40-55% Wed night into Thu morning. Mostly cloudy
conditions Wed are likely to keep temperatures a bit cooler (mid
to upper 60s north, mid 70s south).

Thu-Mon (modified)...A strong cold front is forecast to sweep
across the area Thu, accompanied by breezy to gusty northwest
winds (20-30 mph gusts) which will advect much drier air with
clearing skies Thu afternoon and night. The combination of NW
wind, clear sky conditions, and cold continental airmass will send
temperatures plummeting into the 30s for most by Friday morning.
Wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s are forecast Friday
morning as well, solidly reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria
for most of ECFL with the possible exception of coastal Martin
county. Sub-freezing temperatures (29F-32F) are possible Fri
morning across north Lake and Volusia counties. Despite full
sunshine Friday, max temps will range from the mid 50s Orlando
north to the low 60s Martin county, 10-15 degrees below normal.
Saturday promises another cold start with temperatures in the 30s
and 40s, but a lighter wind makes for less of a wind chill
factor but increases the risk of frost esp interior sections.
Afternoon highs Sat rebound into the mid and upper 60s with lower
70s south.

High pressure that built over Florida and the southeastern U.S.
Friday/early Saturday will break down again Saturday afternoon as
another cold front brings reinforcing cold air Sunday into Monday.
There are discrepancies in models at this range regarding timing
and any chance of precip, but for now, this forecast calls for a
dry frontal passage. Temperatures trend colder Sunday into early
next week behind this front, perhaps flirting with wind chills
near the 30-degree mark again Monday morning. On the whole, expect
a cooler-than-normal pattern to persist through the extended
range with limited opportunities for measurable rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Inverted coastal trough developed earlier today extending from
near the Cape northward offshore NE FL. Tight north pressure
gradient on the west side of this trough is producing sustained 20
knots with higher gusts over the nearshore Volusia waters so
reissued the Small Craft Advisory there thru this eve. The NE
pressure gradient on the east side of the trough axis supports NE
winds 10-15 knots across the remainder of the Atlc coastal waters.
With 7 FT seas subsiding, canceled the SCA for the Gulf Stream
early and replaced with a Caution headline.

Favorable boating conditions return Tuesday as NE winds decrease
to 8-12 kt and seas reach 3-5 ft. Seas fall further to 2-4 ft
Wednesday before offshore winds pick back up Wednesday afternoon
and night (15- 20 kt). A strong cold front swings through
Thursday, freshening northwest winds and building seas. Thus, poor
to hazardous conditions quickly return Thursday morning to the
offshore zones, expanding to the remainder of the local Atlantic
waters Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Seas reach a peak of
at least 7-9 ft Thursday night/early Friday, though this could be
a conservative forecast (some guidance brings wave heights up to
10+ ft offshore). Rain chances increase ahead of and along the
approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday, and a lightning
storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Stream.

High pressure builds over the waters Friday and winds respond by
decreasing and turning onshore. Seas, though, will take a bit
longer to subside Friday afternoon esp over the Gulf Stream.
Boating conditions look quite favorable Sat within a weak pressure
gradient/light wind regime and seas 2 FT nearshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1251 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGs continue to build southward across the area.
Have continued prevailing MVFR/IFR CIGs across the interior and
DAB. Guidance is not consistent on how long this will persist. For
now, have maintained lower CIGs lingering through 08Z. But wil
continue to monitor. VFR conditions are then forecast once these
lower CIGs lift. Northerly winds around 10 KT tonight will
becoming N/NE Tuesday and remain around 10 KT before becoming
light and variable around 23/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 55 67 50 / 10 30 30 40
MCO 73 60 68 54 / 10 30 20 50
MLB 74 58 72 52 / 10 30 30 40
VRB 75 59 74 51 / 20 40 30 30
LEE 70 55 67 51 / 10 20 20 50
SFB 72 56 68 52 / 10 30 20 40
ORL 72 59 67 53 / 10 30 20 50
FPR 75 59 75 51 / 20 40 30 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

#1257032 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Cold temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. Sub-
freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the area,
especially Thursday night and over the weekend.

- Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area
Wednesday night and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions
for small craft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Another cool and dry day is expected for today as high pressure
lingers across the area. This high will push southward into the
Gulf and weaken as our next reinforcing cold front sweeps through
the area Wednesday night. Looking aloft, a southern stream
shortwave trough, located over western Texas will quickly approach
the local area by tonight. Winds aloft will briefly turn
southwesterly as it approaches. Although moisture return is still
quite limited (PWATs remain below an inch), there may be enough
forcing to squeeze out a few isolated to widely scattered showers
as the trough passes overhead during the overnight hours. With the
cold airmass still in place, expect a very light, overrunning
rain. By the afternoon, longwave troughing diving southward from
Canada will phase with the southern stream shortwave and push to
our east by Wednesday night. This trough will help to send the
aforementioned cold front through our area. Once again, a few
light rain showers cannot be ruled out as the front pushes
through. Behind it, another cold, dry airmass filters in from the
north as high pressure builds in. Highs for today and Wednesday
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight will dip into
the upper 30s to low 40s. After the front passes through Wednesday
night, temperatures on Thursday will crash into the mid to upper
40s for highs and the low to mid 20s for lows Although winds
Thursday night look to be rather light, apparent temperatures may
get close to our Cold Weather Advisory criteria. We`ll keep an eye
on this potential over the coming days.

The second half of the period will be strikingly similar to the
first half. By Friday and Saturday, highs will rebound to the upper
50s to low 60s, with lows Friday night ranging from the mid 30s
inland to the low 40s along the coast. Another longwave trough is
set to dig southward from Canada, helping to send yet another
reinforcing cold front through our local area Saturday into Saturday
night. Limited moisture return should keep PoPs low, although would
not be surprised to see a few isolated showers pop up. After the
front passes through temperatures drop once again, with highs Sunday
and Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into the
20s. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through much of the
period, with a brief bump to Moderate expected Wednesday night for
our western Florida Panhandle beaches. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, along with
light winds. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to northerly flow will
shift westerly tonight. This westerly flow will increase on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, followed by a moderate to
strong offshore flow Wednesday night through Thursday in the wake
of the front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for
Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds will gradually decrease
Thursday night, becoming a light to moderate onshore flow on
Friday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 54 32 59 41 / 0 0 0 20
Pensacola 53 36 58 45 / 0 0 0 20
Destin 54 40 59 47 / 0 0 0 20
Evergreen 52 29 60 38 / 0 0 0 20
Waynesboro 52 29 58 39 / 0 0 0 20
Camden 49 28 57 39 / 0 0 0 20
Crestview 53 28 61 37 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257033 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1249 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast lows Thursday night have been adjusted colder, but wind
chills are little changed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues through tonight, with high
temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal.

2) Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system
moves overhead.

3) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday
morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through tonight, with high
temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal.

Some good radiational cooling has occurred just past midnight,
as temperatures continue to dip towards the 20s. Some cirrus
that is streaming in from the west has thickened up over the
last hour or so, which I believe has already started to hinder
the cooling. May need to back off on some of the hourly
temperature forecasts as we head through the rest of this
morning.

Elsewhere, quiet forecast still in store through tonight. A
shortwave moves through late this morning, but doesn`t really do
much at all to change the sensible weather. Plenty of sunshine on
the way, with highs creeping up into the upper 50s to near 60. This
will solidly be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday, about a degree
or two above normal for mid-January.

Southwesterly flow starts building in tonight ahead of the next
disturbance. This causes low temperatures to be considerably warmer
than the last couple of nights, generally in the mid-to-upper 30s
inland, lower 40s at the coast.here.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level
system moves overhead.

A southern stream shortwave will be pulled northeastward and
across the Carolinas on Wednesday by a deep upper level trough
developing across the Great Lakes. This shortwave will carry a
slug of mid level moisture with it, visible on model 700 mb
progs between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Isentropic
analysis within the moisture-bearing layer shows only modest
upglide, but still likely enough to produce light rain with less
than 0.10 inches expected. Forecast PoPs have been tweaked
higher to 40-50 percent along the coast centered on Wednesday
afternoon.

Very dry air between the mid level cloud base and the surface means
there could be evaporational cooling as precipitation begins. I`ve
kept Wednesday`s forecast highs near the NBM for now, but there`s
certainly potential that highs will come in lower than is
currently forecast if precipitation is more widespread or
heavier in intensity.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through
Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures.

Strong cold advection behind Thursday`s early morning arctic
cold front will continue through the day and into Thursday
night. Although yesterday morning`s models showed a decrease in
wind speed late Thursday night, the new 00z models arriving now
show this decrease in wind even more acutely. This should allow
a radiational inversion to develop, especially inland, and we`ve
accordingly pushed forecast lows down another couple of
degrees. We`re now expecting lows in the upper teens with some
lower 20s near the coast. This looks to be the second coldest
arctic outbreak of the winter (so far) behind the December 15,
2025 event.

In terms of public impact, lower forecast temperatures are being
offset by lighter forecast winds. Forecast wind chill temperatures
are still near the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather
Advisory late Thursday night/Friday morning.

Although model spread widens by the weekend, a second arctic cold
front appears likely to arrive across the eastern Carolinas either
Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will be followed by another
shot of well below normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Calm winds
already in place at all terminals, which will continue for the next
several hours. Light breeze at 5-7 kts out of the SSW builds in by
17-19Z this afternoon, decreasing slightly to 4-6 kts by sunset.

Extended Outlook...VFR through perhaps midday Wednesday. Some
restrictions are possible late Wednesday and Thursday. VFR returns
Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...NNW winds around 5 kts back to the southwest by
late this afternoon, increasing towards 10 kts by sunset. Winds veer
slightly to the WSW overnight tonight, increasing more to 10-15 kts.
Seas remain at 1-2 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Breezy southwest winds as strong
as 20-25 knots Wednesday night will precede a strong arctic cold
front that will push off the North and South Carolina coastline
early Thursday morning. Northwest winds behind the front on Thursday
into Thursday night should average 20 to perhaps 25 knots. There is
a good chance a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the winds
both ahead of and behind the cold front.

High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast should lead to
diminishing wind speeds Friday, however the high should push
offshore Friday afternoon or evening with winds shifting
southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots. Winds could increase
further on Saturday when a second period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions could occur ahead of the next front approaching from the
west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257031 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1235 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances are decreasing for wintry precipitation Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures tonight with a gradual warming trend
Tuesday into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system Wednesday through Thursday night will
bring the next chance of rain, with some potential for a wintry
mix or light snow as it moves offshore Thursday night

MARINE: SCA conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday, with
gale force winds possible Thursday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions tonight with light/calm winds and
clear skies. Temps will fall quickly after sunset this evening
with lows expected in the mid to upper 20s inland to 30s along
the coast. Some inland locations may even drop into the lower
20s. NBM temps are too warm in this scenario and followed
closely to MOS guidance.

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday with southwest winds
bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to the mid to
upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, which is a few
degrees above climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
Tuesday through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
will be along the coast where we continue likely PoPs, which
tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not that
impressive with precip amounts which shows around a quarter on
an inch along the coast to little accumulation inland. All
liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a few showers
across the region with frontal forcing, but rainfall amounts
expected to be limited, only a few hundredths at best. Strong
CAA develops behind the front Thursday morning but it appears
this will be a typical cold air chasing the moisture with
guidance keeping precip all liquid through Thursday afternoon.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday
evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will
be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period
of rain or show. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs
are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for
either rain or snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the entire period as high
pressure builds in from the southwest. Sct high clouds continue
to stream in from the SW but offer little in the way of impact
to the area. We also remain too dry for fog development.
Otherwise, light and variable to calm winds tonight become
SW`rly at about 5-10 kts with gusts up around 10-15 kts by mid
morning. These winds will persist into Tue evening before winds
become light and variable once again Tue night. Skies remain
partly cloudy through the period.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the
period with high pressure in control. While there is still
uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could
bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has settled across the waters bringing light winds
less than 10 kt, while seas have subsided to 3-5 ft. Have
allowed the remaining SCA for the waters from Duck to Ocracoke
inland to expire this morning. Light winds continues overnight,
then becomes southwesterly around 5-15 kt Tuesday with seas
around 2 ft.

A low pressure system will pass off the coast Wednesday bringing
increased winds and seas which may bring SCA conditions to the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, mainly where better
mixing occurs near the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A cold front
will push across the waters Thursday morning with strong CAA
developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and could see
NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions across the
waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure
briefly building into the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257029 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1211 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Below normal temperatures are expected for the next 7 days.
Friday morning will be the coldest this week with a medium
chance (30-60 percent) of an inland hard freeze.

- Hazardous marine conditions will redevelop behind the next cold
front on Wednesday night and Thursday, with northwest wind gusts
at or near gale force.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

No updates to the forecast this evening. Cloud cover continues to
thin slowly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

A surface ridge axis extends this afternoon from northern
Louisiana to northern Georgia. This axis will move southward and
pass directly across the service area during the day on Tuesday.
So as surface winds weaken and decouple tonight, we should have a
decent setup for radiational cooling, especially later at night
once we get rid of the existing cirrus deck. Most inland locations
should get a light freeze and some frost. One thing that could
disrupt the forecast of a light freeze is the OVC deck of
stratocumulus clouds slow spreading inland from the JAX metro
area. The NAM is quite bullish at bringing these clouds as far
west as VLD and TLH. If that happens, it would cut off the
radiational cooling in its tracks. The latest RAP is not nearly so
bullish.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Two reinforcing cold fronts will cross the region in the Long
Term. The first will pass the region on Wednesday PM. The second
front will pass late Saturday or Saturday night. In both cases,
moisture in the base of the eastern U.S. longwave trough will be
limited, so precipitation, if any, will be light. On to the
nitty gritty...

The existing low-amplitude northern stream longwave will amplify
dramatically on Wednesday, as the shortwave currently crossing the
Canadian Rockies dives southeast and amplifies the longwave trough
well to the south. This will drive a strong reinforcing cold front
across our region on Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, the southern
stream trough over northwest Mexico will accelerate east and
deamplify as it moves east along the northern Gulf. This will
support 20-40 PoPs during the day on Wednesday in advance of the
front. Where it rains, QPF should be under 0.1 inches, which will
have no long-lasting benefit.

Gusty northerly winds behind the front on Thursday should bring
gusts in the 25-35 mph range. At this point, it at least looks
like winds should stay below Wind Advisory criteria.

A widespread freeze is expected behind the front on Friday
morning. Probabilities for a hard freeze (25 degrees or less) have
decreased a little since yesterday. Those probs now range from
around 30 percent along the I-10 corridor to 50-60 percent north
of Dothan-Albany-Tifton.

The incoming surface high will have already scooched east of I-75
by Friday afternoon.

The next clipper-style reinforcing cold front will quickly sweep
across the region around Saturday night, though there are notable
timing differences in guidance. Once again, moisture will be
lacking with this front, and NBM PoPs have decreased a little
since yesterday, meaning more of the region with unmentionably
low precip chances.

If there is some light precip with this weekend`s front, then it
could be a thin margin between the back edge of exiting precip and
the arrival of sufficiently cold air for wintry precip. As
mentioned yesterday, the vast majority of situations like this
result in the incoming drier air winning out. In other words, the
precip exits before the cold air arrives. Model hounds have
surely sniffed out one or two model runs from recent days showing
a small overlap between the precip and cold air north of the FL
state line, most notably with last evening`s deterministic ECMWF
run. However, this appeared to be an outlier solution in its
bullishness. Indeed, the 12z ECMWF has arrived with a drier
frontal passage. Today`s 12z GEFS plume diagrams show less than 10
percent of members with any wintry precip at DHN and ABY, with
every one of those outliers showing barely more than a trace. All
in all, wintry precip should not be expected. In the very low
chance instance that it occurs, it would be brief, light, and
low/no impact. This paragraph is intended to be "cold water" on
any hype about wintry precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Surface high pressure ridge axis gradually moves south of the
terminals on Tuesday. Light and variable winds become north
on Tuesday with a tendancy to become more westerly at DHN and
ECP during the afternoon. With the weak pressure gradient in
place, winds generally AOB 5 kts. VFR conditions w/SCT cirrus
becoming BKN late Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

A high pressure ridge axis across extending this afternoon from
northern Louisiana to northern Georgia will move south directly
across the waters on Tuesday evening, bringing a continued
decrease in wind. Once high pressure moves south on Wednesday,
westerly breezes will freshen in advance of a strong reinforcing
cold frontal passage on Wednesday night. Northwesterly gusts
near gale force will follow that front on Thursday. Winds will
quickly decrease on Thursday night and Friday as a high center
passes directly across the waters Friday evening. Yet another cold
front will cross the waters on Saturday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The high pressure center at the heart of the existing dry air mass
will pass directly across the districts on Tuesday. Tuesday will
therefore feature an interesting combination of places with critically
low humidity below 25 percent, along with low daytime dispersion
due to the lack of wind and low mixing heights. On Wednesday,
dispersion will increase markedly, with high values resulting from
development of gusty southwest winds in advance of a strong
reinforcing cold frontal passage late Wednesday. Strong gusty
northerly winds will follow that front on Thursday, supporting
another day of high dispersion.

No fog is expected through Wednesday morning. Tuesday morning
will start with areas of frost over many inland districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days. Any
precipitation that falls in the next week will not be
hydrologically significant.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 41 62 41 / 0 10 30 10
Panama City 61 45 63 41 / 0 30 20 30
Dothan 60 41 60 35 / 0 20 10 20
Albany 61 38 60 36 / 0 10 20 10
Valdosta 63 40 60 39 / 0 10 30 10
Cross City 66 44 64 43 / 0 10 30 40
Apalachicola 59 46 62 43 / 0 20 40 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257028 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1116 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

* Low temperatures just below freezing are forecast for most
places that are generally along/north of the I-10/12 corridor
Tuesday morning. Freezing temperatures are forecast to last
several hours Tuesday morning moving above after sunrise. Residents
should take action to protect sensitive vegetation and ensure
outdoor pets have access to warm shelter.

* According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly
half of all home fires occur between the months of December,
January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the
use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and
fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this cold
snap should safety recommendations - such as using a screen and
keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring
all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and
placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable
materials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A slow warming trend will start Tue but will only get into the low
to mid 60s by Wed before dropping again to the low 30s north and
low 40s south Wed night. This cold front will be able to produce
some cloud cover and cloud depths enough to produce some light
rainfall in a few locations. This is all it will be able to
produce since cloud depth will not be anywhere close enough to
produce lightning. Whatever rain it is able to produce will be
fleeting mainly Tue night into early Wed. But there is a second
chance of a few sprinkles as the secondary frontal sfc catches the
first late Wed. This is when the surge of coolest air moves
through. The air won`t be frigid but it will be cooler than
where we are now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

We should only make it to around 50F for Thu. Then the coldest
night for this system will be Thu night into Fri morning with lows
in the upper 20s north to mid 30s south. It`s possible to reach
the 60s as we warm up after this front but it won`t last long as
another in a line of cold air dumps moves through by the weekend.
This is the one that is most questionable at the moment and could
go either way, wet and stormy or just a few showers moving
through. The more detailed features with this won`t be deciphered
until Thu at the earliest. We are pretty confident that this front
will not take its time in moving through. We should see another
warming trend after that as we move into the new week and yet
another cold air surge from the north by Tue. This one is
questionable to move through, and since it is so far out, there
are no clues to if or when. But with the pattern as it is, we are
fairly sure that another front moving toward the area in that time
frame is a pretty good bet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR through this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 753 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Winds will slowly lower through Tue while a surface high moves into
the northern gulf waters late Tue. A west wind will begin as the
high moves SE by Wednesday. West winds will rise ahead of a
reinforcing cold front moving through late Wed bringing winds around
to NW 20-25kt Wed into Thursday. This time frame will likely need
small craft advisory headlines again. NW winds will begin to ease
again late Thursday into Friday. Light and variable winds early
Friday will begin to shift to onshore flow through the day and rise
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 33 59 42 / 0 0 0 30
BTR 56 34 60 44 / 0 0 10 20
ASD 54 31 60 43 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 55 42 60 47 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 54 35 58 45 / 0 0 0 20
PQL 54 30 60 41 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

#1257027 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1212 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The risk for snow showers or squalls late afternoon and early
evening has ended. The threat for an impactful coastal storm
late in the week has diminished.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall quiet weather through Tue, then the chance of rain or
snow showers Tue night

- Unsettled mid to late week with periodic chances for showers

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall quiet weather through Tue, then the chance
of rain or snow showers Tue night

A couple fast moving northern stream shortwaves will be moving
through New Eng through Tue night One shortwave moves through late
tonight and early Tue. Moisture is limited and forcing for ascent is
weak so only expecting an increase in cloud cover later tonight,
mainly across northern MA. This shortwave will be followed by brief
shortwave ridging on Tue which will bring sunshine and milder temps
as a SW flow develops. 925 mb temps increase to 0 to +2C which
supports highs Tue reaching into the mid 40s. A second stronger
shortwave approaching from the Gt Lakes will bring increasing high
clouds during the afternoon, then this shortwave lifts NE into
northern New Eng and SE Canada Tue night. Moisture ahead of the
shortwave is a bit more plentiful as PWATs increase to over 0.50"
Tue night which may lead to some rain or elevation snow showers
developing as a mid level front moves through. Guidance is
indicating a band of showers accompanying the mid level front and
deep moisture plume. But little to no impact expected with localized
snow accum less than inch confined to the northern Berkshires. SW
flow ahead of the shortwave will result in a milder night Tue night
with lows in the low-mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled mid to late week with periodic chances
for showers.

Ensemble guidance continues to have good agreement in the overall
synoptic pattern through the later part of this week. A deep trough
moving into the Great Lakes by midweek progresses east into the
northeast US and exiting heading into the weekend. Some smaller
shortwaves may also move along this deepening trough`s flow and
impact southern New England, leading to the chance for some light
snow/rain showers for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Ensemble mean QPF values remain light for this time period. Global
guidance generally agrees on less QPF across SE MA and RI up into NE
MA (especially in the ensembles), but the latest NAM disagrees,
indicating higher amounts across those areas. This spread lines up
with the uncertainty that remains regarding track for these
shortwaves.

We are monitoring the chance for a coastal storm towards the end of
the week. The latest trends are pointing towards the low passing to
the north of southern New England, which would mean that more
significant impacts would all shift to northern New England.
Ensemble probabilities for an inch or more of total snowfall (using
a 10:1 ratio) through Friday evening remain below 10-20 percent, and
are closer to 0 percent for 24 hour snowfall across much of the
region. The only exception is the Berkshires where ensembles have
around 50 to 60 percent probabilities for +1" of snow over 24 hours
(ending midnight Friday). Much can still change this far out from
the event, and the system could still shift towards a more favorable
track for more significant impacts for southern New England
depending on how the mid level trough evolves. But the latest
guidance backing off from this system is worth noting, especially
with agreement across different model suites.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

Light winds possibly variable at times through the morning. SW
winds continuing into Tue then becoming more southerly in the
afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR, but brief MVFR possible as a few rain showers and
elevation snow showers move through. Chance for low level wind
shear especially at eastern terminals.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
RA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, chance SN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday night... High confidence.

Gusty W winds will continue into tonight, especially over
southern waters where 25 kt gusts likely. SCAs extended into
tonight. Winds diminish late tonight through Tue while shifting
to SW, then increase again Tue night as a low level jet moves
through. Another period of 25-30 kt gusts expected.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain,
chance of snow, chance of freezing spray.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of freezing spray,
slight chance of snow.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ235-237-250.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ255-
256.

&&

$$

#1257026 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:18 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1205 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes have been made to key messages for the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry high pressure will dominate through Tuesday, yielding
low relative humidity values both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

2) Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions possible as
gusty winds and low humidity arrive behind a mostly dry cold
front Thursday into Friday.

3) Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows in
the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry high pressure will dominate through Tuesday,
yielding low relative humidity values both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons.

Surface high pressure centered over the southeastern states on
Monday will slowly drift towards Texas on Tuesday. Aloft, broad
troughing will dominate over the eastern CONUS into mid-week as a
closed low north of New England on Monday pushes northeastward.
Given the northwesterly flow aloft, much drier air will be advected
into the region. This is shown through multiple model forecast
soundings, depicting a very dry column of air across southeastern SC
and southeastern GA. The drier air will yield RH values on the order
of 20-30% across the region. With the surface high pressure centered
over the southeastern states, winds across southeast SC and
southeast GA will top out only around 5 to 10 mph Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. While the criteria for a fire weather headline is met in
regards to the RH values, wind speeds are significantly below Fire
Danger Statement/Red Flag Warning criteria. While no fire weather
headlines are anticipated at this time, individuals should be
cautious as fires can spread quickly under these conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous fire weather and marine conditions possible
as gusty winds and low humidity arrive behind a mostly dry cold front
Thursday into Friday.

Approaching shortwave Tuesday night will encourage the development
of weak low pressure within a front over the Bahamas, which will
lift north well off our coast Wednesday. Current expectation is very
dry air in the low levels will limit the potential for any
significant rainfall over land, though a few showers could work back
over the beaches.

A strong cold front associated with low pressure lifting across New
England will then approach from the west Wednesday night, crossing
the area early Thursday. Low level moisture is limited ahead of the
front, and, with only modest upper forcing coinciding with the
strongest frontogenesis Thursday morning, the overall rainfall
potential with the front looks very limited.

Of greater concern is the strong gradient in the wake of the front
as high pressure builds in from the west. This, in combination with
peak mixing and downsloping flow in the low and mid levels, will
likely result in wind gusts Thursday afternoon on the higher end of
the guidance envelope, with 25 to 30 mph gusts likely, with some
gusts to 35 mph possible over land. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely
be necessary, with wind over the coastal waters possible gusting to
Gale Force (~10-30% chance) into Thursday night. Additionally, RH
values will be rapidly dropping through the afternoon and evening,
and critical RH`s (<25%) could be approached by late Thursday
afternoon. A faster frontal passage would result in a greater
potential for adverse fire weather conditions later Thursday
afternoon/evening.

Very dry air remains in place Friday, with the 30-50% probability of
RH values of <25% away from the immediate coast. However, the
gradient will be much weaker Friday, so Red Flag Warning conditions
currently look unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Very cold temperatures will occur Friday
morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the
beaches.

Strong cold and dry air advection will occur in the wake of a cold
front Thursday afternoon and evening. Then, overnight Thursday night,
the gradient will weaken significantly and radiational cooling will
ensue. The guidance envelope shows most likely lows away from the
immediate coast in the upper teens to lower 20s. If several hours of
radiational cooling occurs, lows on the lower end of the envelope,
potentially in the mid to upper teens, are very realistic given dew
points in the lower teens. With light winds, the wind chill will
generally be the same as the temperature, so Cold Weather Advisories
could be needed for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z
Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions prevail for KCHS, KJZI and
KSAV through late week. NW winds could gust to 25 to 30 kt Thursday
afternoon as chilly high pressure builds in quickly behind a strong
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through Wednesday as surface high pressure dominates over the
forecast area and adjacent marine waters.

Weak low pressure passes off the coast Wednesday, but a weak
gradient on the west side of the low keeps benign marine conditions
in place despite increased shower chances.

A strong cold front will cross the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, with gusty NW winds developing behind the front
Thursday through Thursday evening. There is currently a low (10-30%)
chance for Gale Force gusts, but at the very least Small Craft
Advisories are likely. Winds and seas subside quickly Friday morning
as high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

#1257025 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 13.Jan.2026)
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Sprinkles will move through the area Tuesday, with a low chance
of light measurable rain.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one
on Wednesday and another Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A weak southern stream upper low is currently near the Big Bend
region. It will move eastward across the state Tuesday and
Tuesday night as it becomes absorbed into an amplifying trough
across the central and eastern CONUS. Local radar echoes have
been mainly virga so far, but a couple stations near and southwest
of Corpus Christi have reported a trace-0.01" of light rain. That
batch of light rain may brush areas near the coast overnight.
Better lift arrives with the upper low during the day on Tuesday
along with the left-exit region of an upper-level subtropical jet
streak. Mid-levels will be fairly saturated, but dry air will
remain in place at low-levels. Expect at least some sprinkles to
move through during the day with a low chance of light measurable
rain at any given location. Associated cloudcover will knock at
least a couple degrees off of high temperatures.

A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place through
the end of the week and into the weekend, with ridging along the
West Coast and a deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Several
shortwaves will reinforce the eastern CONUS trough. Southeast
Texas will be underneath dry, generally northwesterly flow aloft
along the back side of the trough. Two dry frontal passages are
expected Wednesday afternoon and Friday night with brief warm-ups
prior to the fronts with southwest winds, followed by an increase
in northerly winds behind the fronts. Some deamplificiation of
the pattern may take place by early next week.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

All sites at VFR with VFR prevailing through the period. BKN to
OVC mid-high level clouds will continue through the period. NE
winds will give way to more light and variable winds overnight.
Winds will become SW inland during the day Tuesday.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week,
especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern
half of the the bays. Will maintain the Low Water Advisory in
place, though values will probably fall just short of criteria
(-1 MLLW) Tuesday morning. A Wednesday daytime frontal passage
will push additional water out of the bay, with another Low Water
Advisory likely being needed for Thursday morning. Mariners
should be cognizant of grounding risks.

Light winds and low seas are expected Tuesday with a low chance
for light rain. The next front is expected to push into the waters
Wednesday afternoon with increasing northwest and north winds
filling in behind it Wednesday night into Thursday. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed during this time period.

JDavis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 44 61 43 / 0 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 62 45 61 46 / 0 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 61 52 60 54 / 0 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

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