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| #1278917 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal rain chances (around 30%) through tonight will give way to considerably higher rain chances for the remainder of the work week and at least the first half of the weekend. - Our current confidence in the rainfall totals is low, although most locations in the Keys can generally expect 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, through Saturday. - Easterly breezes will trend upwards over the next several days, peaking Wednesday through Thursday (10-15 mph). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The 12z sounding at KEY sampled a subtly backed low-level wind profile, with substantial moisture from the surface all the way up to 600 mb, capped by a weak inversion and dry air in the 600-500 mb isobaric layer. Surface analysis places the Florida Keys in a split ridge pattern, along with a stationary front draped off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. Further aloft, a sharp positively tilted upper- level trough associated with the surface front resides east of New England, with an expansive ridge building across the eastern CONUS in the wake of the trough. Local Doppler radar continues to depict isolated showers in the mean low-level east to southeasterlies, but with much lower current coverage than the past several days. Outside of a few rain-cooled island communities, most locations are seeing temperatures quickly rise into the upper 80s at this late morning hour. For the balance of today, passing showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the early afternoon in the light to gentle east to southeasterlies. Convection is then expected to flourish over portions of the South Florida Mainland. With northeasterlies aloft sampled in the morning sounding, along with low-level winds eventually to back to the northeast to east, expect this convection to shoot additional convection southwestward towards the Florida Keys in the late afternoon and evening hours. Overall, near-normal September rain and thunder chances (around 30%) seems appropriate with these scenarios, with no changes proposed to the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys nearshore or offshore waters. From synopsis, light east to southeasterly breezes will gradually back to the northeast to east and freshen this afternoon and evening, as a continental high builds southward towards our area. Expect breezes to peak in the moderate range this evening through late Wednesday. Near normal rain chances will trend considerably upwards through mid week, as broad troughing in the western North Atlantic and increased moisture retrogrades southwestward towards the Keys. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail across the island terminals today, passing showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through 18z this afternoon in the mean east to southeasterlies. Thereafter, showers and thunderstorms developing over the South Florida Mainland may progress southwestward towards the terminals late this afternoon through the evening, likely first at MTH, then later at EYW. Have elected to include a window for VCSH for now due to a lack of confidence in timing and evolution, although this will be reevaluated for the 18z TAF issuance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 81 91 81 / 30 40 50 60 Marathon 90 82 89 82 / 30 50 60 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278916 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1024 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marine section was updated for changes to Charleston Harbor. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible with the midday high tide along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. - 2) There is a High risk of rip currents for the GA beaches through Wednesday. - 3) Not as hot today through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible with the midday high tide along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. Northeast winds will strengthen this morning, becoming strong and gusty. These winds will cause tidal departures to increase. The Charleston Harbor astronomical tide will be 5.98 ft MLLW at 11:46 AM. The tidal departure would need to be just over 1 ft for the minor coastal flooding threshold of 7 ft MLLW to be reached. Guidance indicates this could briefly be achieved, so a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed. No coastal flooding is expected further south along the far southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a High risk of rip currents for the GA beaches through Wednesday. Northeast winds will strengthen this morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon, and persisting through Wednesday. This will lead to an elevated east northeast swell along our coast this afternoon through Wednesday. The strongest winds and highest seas should be along our GA coast. This is where there is a High risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Along our SC coast, there is a Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Winds and seas should trend lower on Thursday, reducing the risk of rip currents along our coast. KEY MESSAGE 3: Not as hot today through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend. Satellite and KCLX shows the backdoor or wedge front pushing south across the forecast area this morning. In the wake of the front, northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Northeast winds should bring cooler llvl thicknesses across the forecast area, building a late-summer CAD. Temperatures will peak several degrees lower than yesterday, ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front, generally tracking across SE GA and adjacent waters. Wednesday and Thursday, wedged high pressure will remain across the region, maintaining a nose of drier air with cooler llvl thicknesses. High temperatures are forecast to range around normal, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Stable conditions across the CWA should yield dry conditions both days. Nearly a 600dm ridge will remain centered around southern Appalachians today through Wed, then sliding west on Thursday. Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, dry weather is expected through the rest of the work week. On Friday, GFS and ECMWF indicate a closed H5 low tracking west across FL over the Gulf. The closed low will pass over the Mississippi Delta by Sunday afternoon. Circulation around the low will increase moisture across the Southeast U.S. this weekend. Warm and moist conditions should favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze, this weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite and KCLX indicated that the backdoor or wedge front was advancing south across the Savannah River. Wedged high pressure will increase across the terminals today. Once mixing begins this morning, east-northeast winds should develop gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty east-northest winds will likely continue through the rest of the daylight hours. Gusts should end this evening. At KSAV, the backdoor front should reach the terminal just after the onset of the 12Z TAFs, turning winds from the northeast. By 14Z, gusts between 20-25 kts should develop across the terminal and will remain until this evening. Latest HREF indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms may track across KSAV between 16-20Z, highlighted with a PROB30. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with the chance of breezy northeasterly winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible) on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Otherwise, it will be fairly dry until Friday when rain chances increase again. && .MARINE... Winds in the Charleston Harbor are over-performing with winds at both Shutes Folly and Fort Sumter holding 20 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten a bit more as the afternoon progresses, so a Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the Habor until 8 PM. Expect NE winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming E this afternoon with waves around 2 ft. Today through Thursday evening: A backdoor cold front will push across the marine zones this morning. In the wake of the front, winds across the nearshore and outer waters will turn from the east- northeast and strengthen into the 20s, with gusts in the upper 20s to near 30 kts. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore SC/GA waters along with the outer GA waters. Cold air damming pattern should linger through Thursday, supporting gusty winds. Wave heights will build through today, peaking tonight between 5 to 7 ft. Six foot seas may linger over portions of the waters through Thursday. Small Craft Conditions should end Thursday evening. Friday and Saturday: More favorable marine conditions are expected on Friday into Saturday as winds settle to around 10 kt and seas lower to 2 to 3 ft on Saturday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217- 219-239-241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ360. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ362. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for AMZ364-384. && $$ |
| #1278915 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1019 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today, with heat index values generally reaching 100-107 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday afternoon. - A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected starting tonight and continuing through late this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The forecast is on track, so no updates are needed this morning. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Surface ridging will build south through the Appalachians beginning today while the surface high pressure slides off the northeast US coast. Upper high remains in the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. A weak surface boundary will lead the push of drier air and an uptick in breezy northeasterly winds progged to reach the area late this afternoon along I-75. Before this, today will be another day of highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s yielding heat index values of 100-107 (higher end of range closer to the coast where the higher dewpoints will reside). Any showers that develop would be relegated to the immediate coast and eastern Big Bend. The dry air will push PWATs down towards an inch Wednesday and Thursday while breezy northeast winds pick up with gusts around 25 mph in the late morning through afternoon hours. Dewpoints may actually dip into the upper 50s across the wiregrass Wednesday and Thursday while highs will be slightly cooler with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows Thursday morning will fall into the mid 60s through the wiregrass which is a welcome change, albeit brief, from the lower 70s south of I-10. Rain chances will be limited and generally over the Gulf waters and Florida Big Bend. An upper low will reach the Bahamas Thursday moving westward into the northeast Gulf Friday, then the Global models diverge on how to handle the movement of this feature through the weekend (Euro keeps the upper low to our east into early next week whereas the GFS continues its trek westward towards the mouth of the Mississippi river). Regardless, the upper high retreats westward relinquishing the hold on drier air through the column as PWATs gradually work towards 2 inches this weekend. As such, rain chances make a return first south of I-10 Friday then back into the entirety of the area this weekend. As the subsidence exits stage left and the upper low, clouds, and higher rain chances envelope the area, highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog this morning may sneak into VLD with MVFR vsbys over the next couple hours. Otherwise, winds become gusty out of the E/NE late this morning into the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kt. ECP may still have some influence from the sea breeze where winds turn more SE in the afternoon, then back to the NE this evening. A quick moving broken band of SHRA/TSRA will move from VLD to TLH to ECP late this afternoon and evening, and PROB30s are in place for each site to account for this. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Winds become northeast to east this morning as high pressure builds to our north. Initial light to moderate winds become moderate to strong beginning this evening as easterly surges develop over the Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon. Although a reprieve in the strong winds may occur Wednesday afternoon, it will be short-lived with strong winds returning Wednesday night persisting into Thursday afternoon. As a result of the stronger winds, seas will build to 4 to 6 feet, with occasional 8 feet in offshore waters. Small craft advisories are in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually relax into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 As high pressure builds to the northeast, transport winds will become easterly with speeds of 10-15 mph today and 15-20 mph for Wednesday and Thursday. Dispersion values will increase to high for the Florida and Alabama Wiregrass regions, and the ANF near and along I-10 today. High dispersions continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with pockets of high dispersions throughout all the districts. As drier air will be filtering in, afternoon humidities will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s through much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s today with heat indices ranging from 100-107. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast beginning Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 No flash or riverine flooding expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 73 90 70 / 30 10 0 0 Panama City 94 76 91 72 / 30 20 0 0 Dothan 94 73 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 95 71 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 93 71 91 68 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 92 74 90 71 / 50 10 0 0 Apalachicola 89 78 89 74 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1278914 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 825 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 821 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms focus mainly across Southwest Florida today. Frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any storms. - An approaching upper-level low is expected to bring increasingly unsettled weather for the middle to end of this week. - High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s across South FL each day, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The mid-week period consists of the formation of a Rex Block ridge that covers most of the central and eastern CONUS. In the western Atlantic, an upper-level low will be strengthening and advecting southwestwards underneath this ridge, which will effectively pull the low directly towards the Florida Peninsula given the where the ridge is located. While this upper-level low is not likely to reach our region until Wednesday night, we will still see the effects of it for this mid- week period. Firstly, the pressure gradient will enhance as the low approaches in conjunction with the ridge strengthening. Latest HREF/LREF and other ensemble data suggests around a 70-80% chance that H500 heights will reach 600 decameters as a result of the amplifying ridge over the eastern U.S., which would be above the 90th percentile for heights. As a result, the pressure gradient will strengthen and lead to a period of breezier easterly to northeasterly winds beginning as soon as later this afternoon, but definitely for tomorrow. With the lack of a surface low forming, not expecting these winds to be overly strong, but they will be above average in breeziness. Secondly, forcing for ascent will increase via positive vorticity advection occurring towards South Florida, which will provide energy for the production of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the increase in northeasterly flow, we should see the brunt of activity focusing in SW Florida, but speed convergence and early diurnal processes is expected to result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms in SE Florida as well for today and tomorrow. Overall, given the increasing amount of showers and storms that are expected to form across the region over the next several days, the primary concern will be for excessive rainfall flooding although the risk for this also doesn`t seem that high. HREF LPMM generally highlights a high-end scenario around 4-5" in a short time frame (~2 hours) with 90th percentile QPF (a reasonable high-end) of 2-4" total over the next few days combined. Additionally, severe parameters (lapse rates, CAPE/DCAPE, shear, etc.) are relatively benign, although of course an isolated strong core remains possible to occur via max convergence of low level boundaries that are able to spark a more robust updraft. Nevertheless, this has a very low chance of occurrence so not expecting much of a severe threat here through the period. High temperatures across the region will generally reach the low 90s still through mid-week, with some areas seeing max temps in the upper 80s. Overnight lows for Tuesday night will range from the low to mid 70s across SW Florida to the upper 70s and low 80s for the east coast metro areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The stout 600 decameter H5 heat dome will finally begin to weaken and shift west for the latter half of the week. The main high pressure center will move west of the Mississippi by Thursday, with mid-level height falls occurring across Florida as and inverted trough begins to push west across the Gulf Stream. There is very good agreement amongst both ensemble and deterministic guidance that a cut-off upper low will develop on the southeast side of the ridge. This will occur as part of the upper level jet detaches from the main flow over the Great Lakes, creating a Rex Block pattern across the southeast, with deepening low pressure over Florida and persistent ridging over the Deep South. This shift in the upper level pattern will create much more unsettled weather across South Florida, with PoPs climbing above 80% each day through the end of the week. Continued deep moisture (with PWATs above 2 inches) and increased forcing aloft should allow for scattered to numerous storms to develop across the region. While there is still some spread in the guidance, most ensemble QPF clusters are only showing about 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall for the Thursday through Friday period. These amounts shouldn`t result in anything more than a few isolated urban flooding impacts for low lying and poor drainage locations. At the surface, pressure gradients will relax across the region after Wednesday, knocking down ENE winds back to around ten knots. This should result in slower and more erratic storm motions, with development following outflow and boundary collisions. But with the upper low moving overhead, increased forcing may allow for a few training storms to hit the same area multiple times. As the low crosses into the Gulf over the weekend, there is also an indication that there could be some coastal convergence and pinned coastal storms. While not quite perpendicular to each other, winds at 500 and 700 mbs will be out of the SW, while winds at the surface will be out of the E to NE. This may lead to slow moving storms and enhanced moisture convergence along the Paradise Coast, which also happens to be where most ensemble QPF clusters show the highest rainfall amounts to be (although mostly offshore). While more uncertain, there will also be an isolated threat of severe weather as the disturbance crosses the region. Some models are showing that 500 mb temperatures may drop into the -8 to -9 C range, within the 25th percentile for this time of year. This could result in some steeper lapse rates, allowing for some stronger cores to develop and for a low chance of hail and strong downburst winds. However, increased cloud cover may inhibit the amount of diurnal heating and instability that accumulates throughout the day, keeping the threat of strong storms more conditional and low confidence. Overall, highs will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across SoFlo, with lows in the 70s. Once the upper low ejects out to the west on Sunday, we should return to our more typical sea-breeze dominated wind regime, with scattered afternoon storms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 821 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions should generally prevail today, with brief periods of sub-VFR conditions possible due to SHRA/TSRA starting late morning today. Confidence remains generally low regarding timing, so went without significant mention on the TAFs for this cycle. Light easterly flow should prevail through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Benign conditions continue today, but increasing winds and seas are expected to arrive Wednesday towards the end of the week as a disturbance approaches from the western Atlantic. For today, a gentle northeasterly flow is expected across the Atlantic waters with light to gentle winds in the Gulf shifting to the SW in the afternoon. Seas remain at 2 feet or less for today. For Wednesday, northeast winds will increase, becoming moderate to fresh over the Atlantic waters and fresh to strong for the Gulf waters. Additionally, seas are expected to rise to 5-8 feet in the Atlantic by late Wednesday with Gulf seas at 3-5 feet. Therefore, increasingly hazardous conditions for small craft will be developing over the next several days and may require an advisory. Other than winds and seas, an increased number of shower and thunderstorms are also expected. && .BEACHES... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The risk for rip currents will rise beginning on Wednesday and into the late week period as increased onshore winds and swell arrive due to a disturbance approaching from the western Atlantic. This risk is expected to remain elevated for several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 89 77 / 40 50 70 60 West Kendall 90 77 89 75 / 40 40 60 40 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 79 / 40 50 70 60 Homestead 91 78 90 79 / 40 50 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 88 79 / 40 60 70 70 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 89 78 / 50 60 70 70 Pembroke Pines 90 78 89 77 / 40 50 70 60 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 78 / 60 60 70 70 Boca Raton 89 80 88 78 / 60 60 70 80 Naples 92 76 92 75 / 70 30 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278913 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 801 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk & Rough Surf Today through Thursday. Breezy Onshore Winds Overspread Coastal Locations today. Wind Gusts at Area Beaches likely to be around 35 mph Today through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories in effect Today through Thursday, with Wind Advisories Possible for Coastal Locations. - Waves of Showers & Thunderstorms Today, Thursday & Friday, Mainly Along the I-95 Corridor && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Gusty Winds Today from out of the Northeast - Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon Breezy onshore northeasterly winds will build in from out of the Atlantic and press inland this afternoon as the pressure gradient of high pressure ridging extending in from out of the north tightens, resulting in frequent wind gusts of about 30 mph in addition to diurnal convection developing over the region from out of the east, with more widespread developments occurring over coastal areas and spreading inland through the day with reduced chances for showers and storms over inland southeast Georgia. Early morning fog developments over inland areas today are expected to lift before midmorning. High temperatures this afternoon will reach up into the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s for coastal counties. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index values for this afternoon will rise to 105 for portions of northeast Florida, remaining below heat advisory levels. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - A high rip current risk and rough surf at area beaches. - Breezy northeast winds expected. A Wind Advisory is possible for the coastal areas on Wednesday. An atypical mid to upper level high pressure system will be over the TN valley on Wednesday. The 500 mb heights over the TN valley area may be record setting for this time of year at about 5990m. Further east, a mid to upper level trough will extend from the Bahamas northeast into the western Atlantic. Both of these systems will retrograde on Wednesday while the surface high pressure ridge along the east coast continues to play a role in maintaining gusty northeast flow for the area. Much drier air will be over the area as noted in prior forecasts, with precipitable water values of below 1.4 inches for most areas with mean layer 1000-500 mb northeast flow noted in guidance. This will result in low precip chances at about 15-25 percent for the forecast area. Most convective activity will be confined to the coastal locations but given the winds aloft may move all the way to the 301 corridor. For winds, sustained northeast winds of about 15-25 mph with gusts around 35 mph, especially for the coast. A wind advisory cannot be ruled out for gusts of near 40 mph. Wednesday night, mostly clear skies expected as the dry air persists. Northeast flow will slowly decrease, but still remain breezy for the coast at 15-20 mph and gusty. Lows temperatures will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s, but remain elevated in the mid 70s at the coast due to the onshore flow. Isolated showers may move ashore overnight as well. For Thursday, the weather pattern will continue to be impacted by the anomalous mid to upper level ridge over the TN valley and the approach of the mid/upper level trough. The upper level trough will work through the area late in the day and Thursday night bringing a bit more unsettled pattern to the area and an increase in moisture. A slight decrease in the winds is expected, but we still see breezy northeast winds affecting the area. Moisture will gradually increase with the best rain chances at 30-40 percent for the coastal areas and lower chances at 10-20 percent inland northeast FL. It looks like inland southeast GA remains dry. Chances of showers at 20-30 percent will remain possible overnight Thursday night given the moderated onshore flow. Temperatures both days won`t be as warm as prior days with the mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s further inland. Lows forecast in the mid to upper 60s for inland southeast GA and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible - Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches will continue this period The mid to upper level trough from the Atlantic will be moving westward across the region early Friday. An associated sfc trough will also be moving through the area and bring with it a more moist and unstable airmass. Mean low level flow becomes more easterly with a weaker pressure gradient and lighter winds are expected to develop. Blended model guidance shows scattered showers and embedded storms for Friday mainly across northeast FL, with the drier air still lingering over parts of southeast GA where only isolated convection is anticipated. For the weekend and Monday, surface high pressure moves off to the northeast of the area with pressure gradient supporting light southeast low level flow. Given the high moisture forecast in current model output with PWATs of about 2 inches, we are advertising diurnally driven numerous showers and scattered storms helped by the sea breezes and outflow boundaries. POPs are forecast up to the 50-70 percent range, with some locally heavy rainfall possible for inland northeast FL. Overall, high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Patchy fog will clear by 13Z. Gusty northeasterly onshore winds expected across coastal sites Today with sustained winds of about 10 to 15 knots with frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible with breezy onshore winds will continue through Tonight. Daytime convection will build along the coast and extend inland, with a greater likelihood for showers and storms developing over SSI and SGJ, with showers lingering into the night for coastal northeast Florida. && .MARINE... Northeast winds will strengthen and seas will build across area waters today through Thursday as a cool front moves through the area and high pressure ridge builds north of the area. This will result in small craft advisory conditions, rough seas, and waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area waters through much of the week. Occasional wind gusts may be near gale force later today through late Wednesday evening. Improving conditions are expected by Friday as onshore winds weaken and seas gradually lower. Rip Currents: Strengthening northeast winds and building surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk for area beaches during the morning hours this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - Afternoons Strong high pressure will build to the northeast as a backdoor cool front moves through today. Much higher winds begin by midday today for the coastal areas with speeds up to 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30- 35 mph. These elevated winds remain in place for Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, especially at the coast. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms expected today, and only isolated, at best, on Wednesday. The high pressure north of the area will weaken Friday, with another high building to the northeast over the weekend. Strong surface and transport winds will lead to areas of high daytime dispersion for the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. Fog Potential...Patchy dense fog is possible early Tuesday morning inland areas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We are a few days past the new moon phase, and tidal water levels are still elevated to about 0.5 to 0.8 ft MHHW. Despite the strengthening onshore flow the next few days, we are currently not expecting much in the way of coastal flooding concerns, with water levels expected to be just shy of 1 foot MHHW through Wednesday. As we get more water piling up and persistent onshore flow, peak water levels may be around 1 foot or a little higher by Thursday and Friday, and so still below advisory levels. These higher levels may be within the St Johns River basin and will be monitored in subsequent observations and forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 69 89 67 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 87 75 86 75 / 50 20 20 10 JAX 88 75 88 72 / 50 40 20 10 SGJ 87 77 86 75 / 70 50 30 20 GNV 89 73 89 71 / 50 10 10 0 OCF 90 74 90 72 / 50 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1278912 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 649 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas today, then lowering to a moderate to major risk the rest of the week. - Very low rain chances today, then increasing to a medium to high chance by Thursday. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected today. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Elevated Fire Weather conditions remain possible through Wednesday, mainly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The heat continues to be a concern, but heat indices are expected to be generally less than 110 today. This is due to drier conditions with slightly lower dewpoints/RH values. A few locations may exceed 110 briefly. We may reach Heat Advisory criteria Wednesday, but it will be borderline. Heat Advisory conditions are less likely through the remainder of the week and into the weekend due to increasing rain chances/cooler temperatures. This will lead to the major to extreme risk of heat related impacts today to lower to a moderate to major risk the rest of the week. Slightly drier conditions in the mid levels and PWATs generally less than 2 inches today will keep rain chances low to very low across most of S TX. Although a rogue shower along the sea breeze can not be ruled out. Models have consistently shown a surge of deeper moisture advecting across S TX beginning Wednesday with increasing rain chances through Thursday. PWATs are progged to increase to as much as 2.4 inches, which will be conducive for locally heavy rain creating localized flooding problems, especially if the storms are slow moving. Highest rain chances Thursday are expected across the eastern half of S TX with PoPs from 35-60% and <35% closer to the Rio Grande. Rain chances begin to drop off Friday to a 20-35% chance then 5-20% over the weekend as mid level ridging takes hold. Sufficient moisture should remain in place early next week for a 10-20% chance of showers and storms along the daily sea breeze. Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail across South Texas with the exception at VCT early this morning experiencing MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will remain possible over the next couple of hours however, satellite struggles to depict much coverage. VFR conditions will prevail by 15Z. Southeasterly winds strengthen late this morning through the afternoon at sustained 15-20 knots and gusts around 25 knots. Winds diminish to around 10 knots or less overnight again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 A fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles once again this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow is expected through the week and into the weekend. Very low rain chances expected today. Rain chances increase to medium on Wednesday and high chances by Thursday. Rain chances begin to decrease Friday with low to very low rain chances this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Minimum relative humidity is expected to be around 20-30% this afternoon across the Brush Country. Thus, Elevated Fire Weather concerns are expected and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country this afternoon. The ERC remains at the 75-90% percentile, and Elevated Fire Weather conditions will be possible at times through the period. The chance of wetting rains will be very low today, then increasing rain chances expected beginning Wednesday with the highest chance expected Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 96 79 / 0 0 10 20 Victoria 101 77 100 77 / 10 0 30 20 Laredo 105 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 75 100 76 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 93 81 94 81 / 10 10 20 40 Cotulla 104 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 10 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278911 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 736 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk all Local Beaches Today and Friday. Elevated Risk Returns Early Next Week - Daily Heat Index up to 107 through Sunday - Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Main Hazards: Locally Heavy Rain, Lightning & Gusty Winds Up to 40-50 mph && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Gusty Winds Today from out of the Northeast - Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon Breezy onshore northeasterly winds will build in from out of the Atlantic and press inland this afternoon as the pressure gradient of high pressure ridging extending in from out of the north tightens, resulting in frequent wind gusts of about 30 mph in addition to diurnal convection developing over the region from out of the east, with more widespread developments occurring over coastal areas and spreading inland through the day with reduced chances for showers and storms over inland southeast Georgia. Early morning fog developments over inland areas today are expected to lift before midmorning. High temperatures this afternoon will reach up into the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s for coastal counties. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index values for this afternoon will rise to 105 for portions of northeast Florida, remaining below heat advisory levels. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - A high rip current risk and rough surf at area beaches. - Breezy northeast winds expected. A Wind Advisory is possible for the coastal areas on Wednesday. An atypical mid to upper level high pressure system will be over the TN valley on Wednesday. The 500 mb heights over the TN valley area may be record setting for this time of year at about 5990m. Further east, a mid to upper level trough will extend from the Bahamas northeast into the western Atlantic. Both of these systems will retrograde on Wednesday while the surface high pressure ridge along the east coast continues to play a role in maintaining gusty northeast flow for the area. Much drier air will be over the area as noted in prior forecasts, with precipitable water values of below 1.4 inches for most areas with mean layer 1000-500 mb northeast flow noted in guidance. This will result in low precip chances at about 15-25 percent for the forecast area. Most convective activity will be confined to the coastal locations but given the winds aloft may move all the way to the 301 corridor. For winds, sustained northeast winds of about 15-25 mph with gusts around 35 mph, especially for the coast. A wind advisory cannot be ruled out for gusts of near 40 mph. Wednesday night, mostly clear skies expected as the dry air persists. Northeast flow will slowly decrease, but still remain breezy for the coast at 15-20 mph and gusty. Lows temperatures will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s, but remain elevated in the mid 70s at the coast due to the onshore flow. Isolated showers may move ashore overnight as well. For Thursday, the weather pattern will continue to be impacted by the anomalous mid to upper level ridge over the TN valley and the approach of the mid/upper level trough. The upper level trough will work through the area late in the day and Thursday night bringing a bit more unsettled pattern to the area and an increase in moisture. A slight decrease in the winds is expected, but we still see breezy northeast winds affecting the area. Moisture will gradually increase with the best rain chances at 30-40 percent for the coastal areas and lower chances at 10-20 percent inland northeast FL. It looks like inland southeast GA remains dry. Chances of showers at 20-30 percent will remain possible overnight Thursday night given the moderated onshore flow. Temperatures both days won`t be as warm as prior days with the mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s further inland. Lows forecast in the mid to upper 60s for inland southeast GA and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible - Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches will continue this period The mid to upper level trough from the Atlantic will be moving westward across the region early Friday. An associated sfc trough will also be moving through the area and bring with it a more moist and unstable airmass. Mean low level flow becomes more easterly with a weaker pressure gradient and lighter winds are expected to develop. Blended model guidance shows scattered showers and embedded storms for Friday mainly across northeast FL, with the drier air still lingering over parts of southeast GA where only isolated convection is anticipated. For the weekend and Monday, surface high pressure moves off to the northeast of the area with pressure gradient supporting light southeast low level flow. Given the high moisture forecast in current model output with PWATs of about 2 inches, we are advertising diurnally driven numerous showers and scattered storms helped by the sea breezes and outflow boundaries. POPs are forecast up to the 50-70 percent range, with some locally heavy rainfall possible for inland northeast FL. Overall, high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Patchy fog will clear by 13Z. Gusty northeasterly onshore winds expected across coastal sites Today with sustained winds of about 10 to 15 knots with frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible with breezy onshore winds will continue through Tonight. Daytime convection will build along the coast and extend inland, with a greater likelihood for showers and storms developing over SSI and SGJ, with showers lingering into the night for coastal northeast Florida. && .MARINE... Northeast winds will strengthen and seas will build across area waters today through Thursday as a cool front moves through the area and high pressure ridge builds north of the area. This will result in small craft advisory conditions, rough seas, and waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area waters through much of the week. Occasional wind gusts may be near gale force later today through late Wednesday evening. Improving conditions are expected by Friday as onshore winds weaken and seas gradually lower. Rip Currents: Strengthening northeast winds and building surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk for area beaches during the morning hours this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - Afternoons Strong high pressure will build to the northeast as a backdoor cool front moves through today. Much higher winds begin by midday today for the coastal areas with speeds up to 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30- 35 mph. These elevated winds remain in place for Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, especially at the coast. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms expected today, and only isolated, at best, on Wednesday. The high pressure north of the area will weaken Friday, with another high building to the northeast over the weekend. Strong surface and transport winds will lead to areas of high daytime dispersion for the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. Fog Potential...Patchy dense fog is possible early Tuesday morning inland areas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We are a few days past the new moon phase, and tidal water levels are still elevated to about 0.5 to 0.8 ft MHHW. Despite the strengthening onshore flow the next few days, we are currently not expecting much in the way of coastal flooding concerns, with water levels expected to be just shy of 1 foot MHHW through Wednesday. As we get more water piling up and persistent onshore flow, peak water levels may be around 1 foot or a little higher by Thursday and Friday, and so still below advisory levels. These higher levels may be within the St Johns River basin and will be monitored in subsequent observations and forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 69 89 67 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 87 75 86 75 / 50 20 20 10 JAX 88 75 88 72 / 50 40 20 10 SGJ 87 77 86 75 / 70 50 30 20 GNV 89 73 89 71 / 50 10 10 0 OCF 90 74 90 72 / 50 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1278910 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 724 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Turning windy, especially at the coast, late this afternoon through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - A wet pattern of onshore moving showers and a few storms is forecast mid to late week. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Today-Tonight... A surface front extending over the western Atlantic and through portions of the southeast U.S. early today is pushed further east-southeastward as high pressure expands along the eastern seaboard. Deep moisture persists across central Florida, south of the surface boundary. East-northeast onshore winds begin to increase 10-15 mph this afternoon as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten. Showers and storms over the local Atlantic early in the day should occasionally push onshore. A diffuse sea breeze looks to develop late morning and the into early afternoon bringing the greatest chances (50-60%) for showers and storms inland, west of I-95, after 12PM. Inland activity diminishes into early evening, while isolated to scattered rounds of showers and storms should continue along the coast through the overnight. Poor lapse rates should generally limit organized stronger storms today. However, increasing background flow and winds aloft could still allow for developing convection to produce wind gusts 40-50 mph. Otherwise, hazards remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonal around the upper 80s and low 90s, but humid conditions will still produce peak heat index values in the low triple digits (100-107F). Overnight low temperatures will mostly range the mid to upper 70s, remaining warmest along the coast. Wednesday-Thursday... Continued tightening of the local pressure gradient will further increase onshore flow to around 15-20+ mph Wednesday with peak gusts 25-30 mph at times. This will prompt a period of poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions, and a high risk of life threatening rip currents along with rough surf is expected at all local beaches. East-northeast winds diminish to 10-15 mph Thursday, remaining breezy, and a high risk of rip currents is expected to continue. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised! A drier airmass advects across central Florida on Wednesday with a tight moisture gradient extended southward through Lake Okeechobee. The PoP forecast mostly reflects this showing lower rain chances north of the Orlando Metro within the area of driest air. However, moistening of the lower levels within increased onshore flow should still allow for slight rain chances along the Volusia and northern Brevard Coast, and can`t rule out a few of these showers sneaking further inland. Otherwise, deeper moisture south should allow for rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms throughout the day, continuing along the coast into Wednesday night. Some slight adjustments have been made to the forecast into Thursday as a mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic approaches Florida. Of note, some model guidance has slowed the westward progression of this feature. These slower solutions hold onto the drier airmass across portions of north-central Florida longer than some of the previous forecast cycles. Therefore, rain chances Thursday may look more similar to what is forecast Wednesday favoring continued rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms across the south with lower rain chances north, especially northwest of I-4. High temperatures are forecast near normal Wednesday and Thursday, mostly reaching the upper 80s and near 90s degrees. Morning lows in the 70s will be highest along the coast. Areas along the Barrier Islands may struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark each morning. Friday-Monday... An unsettled pattern is forecast late week and into early next week as the mid to upper level trough passes over Florida and into the Gulf. Moisture recovers behind the trough, expanding moderate to high rain chances more areawide. Light easterly winds veer southeast to south late in the weekend, becoming locally enhanced onshore as a weak sea breeze develops each day. Afternoon temperatures continue to hold near normal in the upper 80s and close to 90s degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Poor to hazardous boating conditions begin build late this afternoon through mid week as high pressure expands across the eastern U.S. Light onshore winds early today increase 15-20 kts north of the Cape into the evening as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late this evening and overnight for the Volusia and Brevard waters as east-northeast winds further increase 20-25 kts. Winds 15-20 kts spread south of the Sebastian Inlet late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Seas begin to build 6-8 ft across the northern Volusia waters after midnight Wednesday, spreading southward through the Treasure Coast early Wednesday afternoon and prompting the Small Craft Advisory to be expanded into the Treasure Coast waters. Winds and seas show a diminishing trend early Thursday, and favorable boating conditions return to the local Atlantic waters Friday. A generally wet pattern begins today and is forecast through late week as a mid to upper level low approaches and passes west of the local Atlantic waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 651 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Onshore-moving showers begin the day along the coast, increasing in coverage through the morning hours. Activity spreads inland with the diffuse sea breeze by around 17Z, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible from around 18-21Z. PROB30s have been included for brief reductions to CIGs/VIS. A brief lull in SH is forecast along the coast after 21Z, before shower coverage increases once again after sunset. This activity is then expected to gradually persist long enough to impact MCO/ISM/SFB after around 6Z. E/ENE flow through the TAF period, increasing to 10-12 kts through the day. Winds look to remain elevated overnight, especially along the coast. Breezy conditions then develop Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 78 88 76 / 50 40 40 10 MCO 91 76 89 74 / 60 20 30 0 MLB 89 79 88 77 / 50 70 70 30 VRB 89 77 88 75 / 50 70 70 50 LEE 91 76 89 73 / 60 10 10 0 SFB 90 76 88 74 / 50 30 40 0 ORL 90 77 88 75 / 60 20 40 0 FPR 89 77 88 75 / 60 60 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1278909 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect through early Tuesday evening for much of the area. - Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the week, mainly along the coast. Rain likely along the coast Thursday. - High temperatures will generally persist in the mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A broad upper low continues to spin over the Tennessee Valley bringing generally persistent weather to our area, with hot and humid conditions continuing through the week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early Tuesday evening. Heat indices up to 109F are possible during the daytime hours. Additional diurnal convection looks to develop during Tuesday morning and will track eastwards through the afternoon. Storms again will be isolated and look to be confined to the coast. Any storms late-morning should mostly stay south of the I-10 corridor, tapering off through the afternoon. After a quiet night, Wednesday will see similar conditions overall, however the timing of more widespread convection along the coast looks to return to the afternoon time frame with a few stray storms potentially moving into northern portions of the forecast area. In any case, these will not amount to much. The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to shift eastward into Thursday. A surge of tropical moisture will accompany this with GFS PWATs in particular approaching an impressive 2.5". The latter would bring more favorable precipitation/convective parameters, however the former will make the cap much stronger and would inhibit storm development. The best precipitation chances will occur in the morning along the coast before the greatest capping develops during the afternoon/early evening hours and the aforementioned moisture surge moves west of our area. The ridge will become elongated from north to south over central Texas Friday into the weekend and become squeezed between a trough to the west and a closed low to the east. This should all yield minimal PoPs, although the heat and humidity will continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 MVFR conditions occurring at PSX with cloud cover just below 3000 ft. All other sites at VFR this morning. Expect all sites to become VFR by mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility again today with coastal showers developing along the coast this morning and pushing inland this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly during the afternoon hours. Expect activity to wane towards sunset. Winds through the period will generally be light and southerly. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light SE onshore winds will continue in the near-term, peaking near 15 kts later tonight. Winds will back to a more due easterly direction on Wednesday and increase to 20 kts from east to west on Thursday, before slightly diminishing on Friday. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through Wednesday, increasing to 4 to 6 feet on Thursday due to the aforementioned wind increase. These will subside into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 99 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 78 94 79 / 20 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 83 / 20 10 20 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335-338. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278908 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 708 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 706 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that develop. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through the morning into the afternoon with a light easterly flow. Storms will begin to develop inland this afternoon before drifting towards the west coast in late afternoon to the early evening. Quiet conditions return overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 77 90 74 / 60 20 40 0 FMY 92 76 91 75 / 60 30 70 20 GIF 92 76 90 74 / 60 10 50 0 SRQ 93 76 92 74 / 70 30 60 10 BKV 93 74 91 71 / 60 10 20 0 SPG 92 78 91 76 / 60 20 40 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1278907 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect on Tuesday for Southern Hidalgo County as well as the inland and coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties, where heat indices are expected to reach 108-111 F, or briefly higher, generally within the hours of 12 PM to 6 PM. - Near record-breaking heat and major to extreme risks of heat related illnesses (levels 3/4 and 4/4) continue into Wednesday, improving to a mainly moderate risk (level 2/4) by Thursday though temperatures remain above average. - Fire weather concerns continue, most concerning Tuesday afternoon. - Mostly dry conditions are expected through midweek, followed by a region-wide low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain Thursday into Friday and a low (10-15%) chance over the weekend before increasing just a bit early next week. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A building high pressure aloft over the eastern US and a tightened pressure gradient maintain dry conditions through Tuesday as well as near-record breaking triple digit temperatures across most inland areas and breezy conditions, with southeasterly winds gusting to 25-35 mph, turning easterly and weakening a bit on Wednesday. The combination of well-above average temperatures combining with onshore, moist flow has led to the issuance of a SPS for Tuesday and an additional SPS is possible on Wednesday. Risks of heat-related illnesses continue ranging from extreme across portions of the RGV and Rio Grande Plains to mostly major elsewhere through midweek as well. Additionally, although the latest forecast conditions are expected to fall just shy of Fire Danger Statement criteria, the combination of breezy southeasterly winds coinciding with minimizing afternoon relative humidity values brings the concern of fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Outdoor burning is not recommended and high caution is urged when handling flames. As always, you can visit weather.gov/bro for the latest forecast and information regarding heat and fire safety. Towards the later part of the week, a surge of high pressure elongating across the eastern CONUS and the Gulf advects deep Gulf moisture to deep south Texas via easterly to northeasterly winds, increasing PWAT values on Wednesday to as much as 2.0-2.4+ in. on Thursday, thus elevating chances of rain along the daytime seabreeze boundary from a low (15-20%) chance across the southern portions of the RGV on Wednesday afternoon to a mostly region-wide low to medium (20-40%) chance on Thursday and Friday, with the best chances along/east US-281. Given such high moisture content, there is a risk for localized flooding concerns on Thursday and possibly Friday, especially within any slow-moving, or training, of convection. Following, much drier air funnels into the region, leaving only a low (10-15%) chance of rain each afternoon over the weekend, though troughing arriving over Texas could lead to more nearly widespread low (15-30%) rain chances to begin next week. Although temperatures are expected to remain above average, easterly to northeasterly winds and increased cloud cover should help highs to cool off to the upper 90s to lower 100s as well as improve heat risks to mostly moderate by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Breezy winds today will diminish around sunset. Limited cloud cover will also occur with rain-free skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds become light to gentle, occasionally moderate, by Tuesday night and transition to easterly, northeasterly at times, by Wednesday. Sight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas build to moderate (3-5 ft) Thursday through Saturday and southeasterly winds return Sunday. Chances of rain build throughout Wednesday to a medium to likely (40-80%) on Thursday and a low to medium (30-60%) chance on Friday. Chances minimize over the weekend before increasing again into the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 80 97 80 / 0 0 10 30 HARLINGEN 102 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 104 80 103 80 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 103 78 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 89 81 / 0 0 10 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 95 78 / 0 0 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1278906 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected today. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late tonight through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Forecast remains on track. MM/25 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 An upper ridge over the region retreats from the area late this week and into Saturday as an upper low/trof forms over the far western Atlantic and advances into the northeast Gulf. A surface ridge builds into the southeastern states through midweek, setting up an easterly surface flow which ushers drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze, but otherwise subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress convective development. The easterly surface flow with the building surface ridge strengthens mainly over the marine area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and isolated to scattered convection develops in response over the marine area which may affect mainly coastal portions of Alabama. Dry conditions otherwise prevail through Friday, then slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast on Saturday as the upper low progresses into the northeastern Gulf along with a modest surface reflection trof and improving deep layer moisture. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as the upper low looks to slowly progress a bit further across the Gulf along with deep layer moisture continuing to increase. A low risk of rip currents on Tuesday is expected to quickly increase to a High Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk follows for Friday. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor surf heights which are expected to increase to 4-5 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Should these increase further, then a High Surf Advisory would likely become necessary for these days. Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Tuesday, but otherwise a combination of somewhat cooler daytime highs and/or lower surface dewpoints will limit heat index values. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR flight category generally prevails across the region through tonight. Winds out of the north this morning less than 5 knots gradually turn easterly this afternoon at 5 to 10 knots. Winds become light less than 5 knots after sunset, gradually increasing to 5 to 10 knots over the interior and 10 to 15 knots near the coast late in the overnight tonight. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes established today, becoming strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week. 1 foot seas today increase quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 75 91 71 / 20 10 10 0 Pensacola 93 77 91 73 / 10 10 0 0 Destin 92 77 91 73 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 97 73 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 97 73 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 97 74 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 94 74 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1278903 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 650 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight. - Seasonably warm temperatures return mid-week, continuing through Friday. A few showers possible sometime late Thursday into early Friday, otherwise mainly dry. - Potential for a shift to an unsettled pattern with chances for rain for second half of weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight. Surface high pressure will be positioned the region today bringing dry conditions and mainly sunny skies. A cooler airmass will be in place with 925mb temperatures several degrees cooler than Monday. This will yield more "Fall-like" temperatures with high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Locations along the immediate east coast may even be cooler in the mid 60s as a result of the light easterly onshore flow. The high pressure center shifts offshore tonight shifting winds to the S then SW. KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably warm temperatures return mid-week, continuing through Friday. A few showers possible sometime late Thursday into early Friday, otherwise mainly dry. A strong upper level ridge/high remains positioned across the southeast CONUS mid-week, subtly building into the northeast mid- week. An upper trough in northern Canada will hold off any stronger ridging from building into the northeast, favoring a flatter/zonal pattern overall. This should support warmer temperatures advecting in within the SW flow. Highs Wednesday/Thursday rise back into the mid and upper 70s with 80s in the valleys (seasonably warm for mid- Sept). Surface high pressure should support mainly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble/deterministic guidance indicates potential for a weak shortwave trough to drop in from the northwest late Thursday into Friday. Ahead of this shortwave, a plume of anomalous moisture advects in from the west on Thursday. Across ensemble guidance, the PWATs run around 170-200 percent of normal or more directly put, PWATs 1.7-1.9". The anomalous moisture is being signal across NAEFS guidance as well. This building moisture will bring a more humid day for Thursday. There is some spread across guidance with regards to the timing of the showers; however, there is general agreement of the highest chances falling in the late Thu afternoon to early Fri morning timeframe. That timeframe should be able to be narrowed down as the details of the pattern become more clear as we go through the week. Despite the anomalous moisture, the weaker lift with this wave and later timing has limited the potential for widespread heavy rain. Ensemble QPF remains below 0.50" for most areas. We`ll have to keep an eye on some embedded heavier showers that could bring locally higher amounts. A drier airmass pushes in behind the exiting shortwave Friday bringing dry conditions dominating by the afternoon. A cooler airmass sinks across the region by Saturday bring a return of Fall-like temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a shift to an unsettled pattern with chances or rain for second half of weekend through early next week. Ensemble guidance hints at a transition to a more unsettled pattern for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. A low pressure system tracks eastward from the Great Lakes bringing increased precipitation chances more likely in the Sun-Mon timeframe. There indications of another wave or two bringing periods of rain for early next week as well. Confidence in precipitation chances and timing should increase as we get closer. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. NNE winds this morning shifting to the NE at 5-10 kts. Interior terminals shift likely shift to the S/SSE early afternoon while coastal terminals shift to E/ESE in the afternoon then shift to the S/SSE 00-03Z. Tuesday night...High confidence. VFR. Winds becoming light S to SW. Patchy fog possible in valleys. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NNE winds shift to NE this morning then shift E/ESE 16-18Z at 5-10 kts. Winds shift toward the SSE/S around 00Z becoming S/SSW by 03Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High pressure overhead today bringing light easterly winds today and tonight. Winds shift around to the S/SW overnight tonight into Wednesday as the high pressure center shifts offshore. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1278902 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 647 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible with the midday high tide along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. - 2) There is a High risk of rip currents for the GA beaches through Wednesday. - 3) Not as hot today through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible with the midday high tide along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. Northeast winds will strengthen this morning, becoming strong and gusty. These winds will cause tidal departures to increase. The Charleston Harbor astronomical tide will be 5.98 ft MLLW at 11:46 AM. The tidal departure would need to be just over 1 ft for the minor coastal flooding threshold of 7 ft MLLW to be reached. Guidance indicates this could briefly be achieved, so a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed. No coastal flooding is expected further south along the far southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a High risk of rip currents for the GA beaches through Wednesday. Northeast winds will strengthen this morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon, and persisting through Wednesday. This will lead to an elevated east northeast swell along our coast this afternoon through Wednesday. The strongest winds and highest seas should be along our GA coast. This is where there is a High risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Along our SC coast, there is a Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Winds and seas should trend lower on Thursday, reducing the risk of rip currents along our coast. KEY MESSAGE 3: Not as hot today through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend. Satellite and KCLX shows the backdoor or wedge front pushing south across the forecast area this morning. In the wake of the front, northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Northeast winds should bring cooler llvl thicknesses across the forecast area, building a late-summer CAD. Temperatures will peak several degrees lower than yesterday, ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front, generally tracking across SE GA and adjacent waters. Wednesday and Thursday, wedged high pressure will remain across the region, maintaining a nose of drier air with cooler llvl thicknesses. High temperatures are forecast to range around normal, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Stable conditions across the CWA should yield dry conditions both days. Nearly a 600dm ridge will remain centered around southern Appalachians today through Wed, then sliding west on Thursday. Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, dry weather is expected through the rest of the work week. On Friday, GFS and ECMWF indicate a closed H5 low tracking west across FL over the Gulf. The closed low will pass over the Mississippi Delta by Sunday afternoon. Circulation around the low will increase moisture across the Southeast U.S. this weekend. Warm and moist conditions should favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze, this weekend. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, IR satellite and KCLX indicated that the backdoor or wedge front was advancing south across the Savannah River. Wedged high pressure will increase across the terminals today. Once mixing begins this morning, east-northeast winds should develop gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty east-northest winds will likely continue through the rest of the daylight hours. Gusts should end this evening. At KSAV, the backdoor front should reach the terminal just after the onset of the 12Z TAFs, turning winds from the northeast. By 14Z, gusts between 20-25 kts should develop across the terminal and will remain until this evening. Latest HREF indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms may track across KSAV between 16-20Z, highlighted with a PROB30. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with the chance of breezy northeasterly winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible) on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Otherwise, it will be fairly dry until Friday when rain chances increase again. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday evening: A backdoor cold front will push across the marine zones this morning. In the wake of the front, winds across the nearshore and outer waters will turn from the east- northeast and strengthen into the 20s, with gusts in the upper 20s to near 30 kts. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore SC/GA waters along with the outer GA waters. Across the Charleston Harbor, gusts should settle into the low 20 kts, remaining just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Cold air damming pattern should linger through Thursday, supporting gusty winds. Wave heights will build through today, peaking tonight between 5 to 7 ft. Six foot seas may linger over portions of the waters through Thursday. Small Craft Conditions should end Thursday evening. More favorable marine conditions are expected on Friday into Saturday as winds settle to around 10 kt and seas lower to 2 to 3 ft on Saturday. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest forecast before heading offshore. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ360. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ362. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Friday for AMZ364-384. && $$ |
| #1278901 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 644 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled for the Chesapeake Bay and Currituck Sound. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat. && .DISCUSSION... As of 214 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat. Early morning weather analysis shows a strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the United States with its axis stretching into far northern Canada. With ridge stretching into far northern Canada this allows the 1026mb surface high to move over New England. The high pressure is in optimal position to allow winds to decouple inland and skies to remain clear across the area. The decoupled winds and clear skies is allowing radiational cooling to occur and let temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s inland. However, along the coast temperatures continue to remain in the low 70s as winds continue to blow off the warm waters. Through sunrise, expect temps to drop into the low to middle 50s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Through the day high pressure will continue to push eastward eventually moving offshore. This will allow for a favorable early fall like day across the area. Skies are likely to remain mostly clear and temperatures will likely struggle to reach 80 in some areas. Highs for the day are likely to be in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid 70s along the coast. By tonight, temperatures will be similar as the previous night with lows in the middle to upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast. As the week progresses the high pressure off the New England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low- mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average temps to return to the forecast area with highs in the upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 638 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions continue through the 12z taf period. Mostly clear skies continue through the morning with the bulk of the clouds remaining across the far SW. Winds are light and variable inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are forecasted to prevail as high pressure dominated todays weather pattern. Skies will remain mostly clear with winds continuing to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light and variable again tonight. Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR conditions given high pressure over the region. && .MARINE... As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the southern ocean zones. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week, but winds may increase late Friday into Saturday as the next cold front drops south into the area. An expansive area of high pressure is centered across Quebec and the NE CONUS, slowly drifting east to New England, and forecast to become centered off the New England coast and Atlantic Canada later today into tonight. The pressure gradient continues to slowly weaken, and winds have dropped to 10-15 kt for most of the region. SCAs currently remain in effect for the ocean zones south of Cape Charles for 4-5 ft seas, but have been cancelled elsewhere. Seas will likely linger ~5 ft through day for the NC ocean zones. This pattern often keeps seas off the NC coast elevated longer than the models predict, so would not be surprised to see an extension through tonight for NC waters (for now they end at 7 PM). The sfc high is forecast to drift south and be nearly overhead of the local waters Wed- Thu, with winds shifting to the E-SE and dropping off to 5-10 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday, with sub- SCA conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the models have trended a bit stronger with the next frontal passage and another sfc high building to our NE. This could lead to strong enough onshore flow and possible SCAs but with high uncertainty at this range. A High Rip Current risk is in effect today for VA Beach and Currituck NC given 5 ft nearshore seas (even with a fairly short dominant period ~6sec), with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Seas are expected to gradually diminish later today into Wed- for now a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for all beaches, though if seas stay above 4 ft into Wed (possible across NC waters), an upgrade to a High Risk may be needed as the E-NE swell continues (shore normal for southern beaches) along with the dominant period increasing to 7-8 seconds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1278900 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 646 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Consistent guidance regarding the upcoming week, so forecast changes were minor. Increased winds (mainly today) as the surge following the cold front expands southwestward. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington through 3 PM. Surf zone headlines remain unchanged. Aviation section updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday. Latest surface analysis shows the cold front progressing nicely through northeast SC early this morning. Dry air following the cold front has brought dew points in the 60s and mixing during peak heating today should bring us into the 50s away from the coast. Cooler temperatures and northeast winds will be a welcomed sight to an otherwise hot September to this point. However, high temperatures will only drop to near normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with gradual warming through the end of the week. Lows could drop into the upper 50s for our inland areas tonight; chances increase on Wednesday night. Dry for the upcoming work week with rain chances returning this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low-end VFR and MVFR CIGs across the SC terminals will gradually lift and dissipate through 14z as drier air builds behind a cold front. VFR thereafter. Steady gradient will produce 10-15 knot NE winds today, gusting to 20 knots at times at the coast. Extended Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through Thursday in a drier and cooler airmass. May see an uptick in SHRA/TSRA by Friday and Saturday, but confidence is limited at this time with any potential restrictions. && .MARINE... Northeasterly winds continue to build this morning behind a cold front. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through this evening with periodic gusts up to 25 knots and seas up to 6 feet. The fetch will persist into Thursday as the surface ridge axis resides across the Carolinas and a late- week surface trough keeps the gradient pinched. Winds and seas improve on Friday as the gradient weakens and winds turn easterly. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256. && $$ |
| #1278899 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 632 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 628 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today, with heat index values generally reaching 100-107 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday afternoon. - A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected through late this week. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Surface ridging will build south through the Appalachians beginning today while the surface high pressure slides off the northeast US coast. Upper high remains in the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. A weak surface boundary will lead the push of drier air and an uptick in breezy northeasterly winds progged to reach the area late this afternoon along I-75. Before this, today will be another day of highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s yielding heat index values of 100-107 (higher end of range closer to the coast where the higher dewpoints will reside). Any showers that develop would be relegated to the immediate coast and eastern Big Bend. The dry air will push PWATs down towards an inch Wednesday and Thursday while breezy northeast winds pick up with gusts around 25 mph in the late morning through afternoon hours. Dewpoints may actually dip into the upper 50s across the wiregrass Wednesday and Thursday while highs will be slightly cooler with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows Thursday morning will fall into the mid 60s through the wiregrass which is a welcome change, albeit brief, from the lower 70s south of I-10. Rain chances will be limited and generally over the Gulf waters and Florida Big Bend. An upper low will reach the Bahamas Thursday moving westward into the northeast Gulf Friday, then the Global models diverge on how to handle the movement of this feature through the weekend (Euro keeps the upper low to our east into early next week whereas the GFS continues its trek westward towards the mouth of the Mississippi river). Regardless, the upper high retreats westward relinquishing the hold on drier air through the column as PWATs gradually work towards 2 inches this weekend. As such, rain chances make a return first south of I-10 Friday then back into the entirety of the area this weekend. As the subsidence exits stage left and the upper low, clouds, and higher rain chances envelope the area, highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog this morning may sneak into VLD with MVFR vsbys over the next couple hours. Otherwise, winds become gusty out of the E/NE late this morning into the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kt. ECP may still have some influence from the sea breeze where winds turn more SE in the afternoon, then back to the NE this evening. A quick moving broken band of SHRA/TSRA will move from VLD to TLH to ECP late this afternoon and evening, and PROB30s are in place for each site to account for this. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Winds become northeast to east this morning as high pressure builds to our north. Initial light to moderate winds become moderate to strong beginning this evening as easterly surges develop over the Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon. Although a reprieve in the strong winds may occur Wednesday afternoon, it will be short-lived with strong winds returning Wednesday night persisting into Thursday afternoon. As a result of the stronger winds, seas will build to 4 to 6 feet, with occasional 8 feet in offshore waters. Small craft advisories are in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually relax into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 As high pressure builds to the northeast, transport winds will become easterly with speeds of 10-15 mph today and 15-20 mph for Wednesday and Thursday. Dispersion values will increase to high for the Florida and Alabama Wiregrass regions, and the ANF near and along I-10 today. High dispersions continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with pockets of high dispersions throughout all the districts. As drier air will be filtering in, afternoon humidities will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s through much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s today with heat indices ranging from 100-107. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast beginning Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 No flash or riverine flooding expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 73 90 70 / 30 10 0 0 Panama City 94 76 91 72 / 30 20 0 0 Dothan 94 73 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 95 71 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 93 71 91 68 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 92 74 90 71 / 50 10 0 0 Apalachicola 89 78 89 74 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Thursday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1278898 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 449 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 449 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Isolated pop up showers and storms Tuesday afternoon, becoming more prevalent on Wednesday. - Drier air from a backdoor front brings more seasonably warm conditions and more comfortable humidity to the area on Thursday and Friday which will also drop rain chances. Rain chances return over the weekend, however. - Stronger easterly winds may result in small craft advisory conditions for the latter half of the week in the coastal waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging dominates the pattern for forecast Tuesday, which will result in a slightly drier forecast. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm and moist air into the region. Some isolated showers are possible during peak daytime heating, but this will be very sparse coverage. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values in the 103-108 degree range so it will still be warm for this time of year. Be sure to stay hydrated if spending time outdoors and take frequent breaks. Wednesday, a backdoor cool front will progress through the area. This front will enhance rain chances mainly for marine areas, but as we go toward the midday through the evening hours, some scattered storms will popup over land along the boundary. There are still some uncertainties in how far inland the system will progress northward, but at least the immediate coastal areas should see increased precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon/evening. These storms are not expected to be severe, but gusty winds (40-50mph) and lightning will be expected. Thursday, conditions will be a lot drier with little to no precipitation expected. Temperatures should also be cooler as we get our first glimpse of fall. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, which should feel really nice considering the above average temperatures lately. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The disturbance that was over the Atlantic Thursday should be in the northeast Gulf off the Florida west coast north or northwest of Tampa by Friday evening, with the upper ridge over northeast Texas. Some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF operational solutions as to how far westward this feature makes it before heading northward and eventually northeastward. The ECMWF operational solution from 14/12z brings it as far west as Fort Walton Beach on Saturday, then drifts it slowly northward into Georgia by Monday night. The 14/18z GFS brings it to the Alabama- Mississippi border Sunday morning and leaves it in that general vicinity until the middle of next week. In either case, the local area should be on the "drier" side of the upper circulation. It does appear that the NBM PoP numbers for Saturday and Sunday have come down a bit from the previous run and are somewhat more in line with the Monday daytime ECMWF/GFS operational PoP numbers (30-50%). Current guidance does continue to show somewhat lower dew points by the weekend, at least north of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. That should allow some of the normally cooler areas to dip into the upper 60s at least once over the weekend, but areas south of the corridors may not notice much difference in overnight lows. Highs may still get into the 90 to 95 range over the weekend in much of the area, but probably a few degrees short of today. Less cloud cover would fit with the operational PoPs and slightly higher temperatures. Heat index values are expected to remain below advisory criteria over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 449 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. PROB30 group is in effect for HUM and MSY for Tuesday afternoon for isolated showers/storms that could drop conditions to MVFR briefly. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A broad surface high centered over the area will keep benign conditions in place across the waters through Tuesday with light and variable winds of less than 5 knots and seas of less than 2 feet expected. A few showers or storms will pop up in the morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves possible as well as lightning and waterspouts especially on Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient will begin tightening Wednesday morning behind a backdoor front. This will cause easterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts upwards of 30 knots midday Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Wednesday night into Thursday night. Seas will respond to these higher winds and increase to 8 to 10 feet in the outer waters. These unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate late Friday and into Saturday. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1278896 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 404 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to slightly-above normal rain chances in the short term is expected to give way to considerably higher rain chances later in the work week. - Winds are expected to trend upwards over the next several days, likely peaking in the moderate to fresh range around mid week. - Heat index values will range from 100-108 degrees daily, with little relief from the muggy conditions overnight. Know the signs of heat stress, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 A weak split surface ridge lingers across Florida this morning. As a result, surface winds are light out of the east to southeast. Last evenings sounding indicated deep layered moisture remains quite high with 2.19 inches of precipitable water. This was slightly above the 90th percentile for the date. While there was ample CAPE, weak inhibition and weak forcing has kept activity isolated across the area through much of the night. More recently, scattered showers have begun percolating across our zones. On the larger scale, a strong mid and upper level ridge is currently building across the eastern United States while sharp troughing is digging southward off the Atlantic Coast. Over the next couple of days, a robust continental high will spread south and southwestward through the southeastern United States and gradually bolster the local pressure gradient. Expect light east to southeasterly breezes to freshen modestly later this afternoon and evening out of the northeast to east. Deep layered moisture is expected to slip slightly through the day with weak lower level inhibition holding on. As a result, expect near normal shower and thunder chances today. Island cloud lines will once again be possible. Temperatures will remain trend less with highs near 90 and lows in the lower 80s. Dew points will hold in the mid 70s. The tail end of the sharp trough digging off the Atlantic coast is expected to pinch off and interact and absorb a TUTT cell moving in across Hispaniola and the Central Bahamas through the middle portion of the week. As a result, deep layered moisture is expected to increase across and east of our area as broad lower level troughing takes shape. The mid and upper level low and lower level trough is expected to sweep westward into our area through the back half of the week. In addition, the mid and upper low complex will result in falling heights aloft. Expect shower and thunder chances to trend sharply upwards through the middle of the week, likely peaking in the Thursday time frame. Breezes will gradually relax and veer east to southeast as the trough pushes through. It may take some time for the copious atmospheric moisture to clear out of our area. The trough/low complex should slowly lumber westward into the Gulf while broad ridging sets up off the Atlantic Coast. This will keep a broad moist confluent zone across our area for quite some time. Consequently, a prolonged period of above normal rain chances are possible through late week and weekend. With all that said, the evolution of these features are highly uncertain as is often the case with complex upper level interactions. that said, uncertainty is high and model to model and run to run disagreement is high. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Weak and splintered high across Florida will be steadily reinforced and ultimately absorbed by a strong continental high spreading southward through the eastern United States. Light to gentle easterly breezes will begin freshening later this afternoon and evening out of the northeast to east, becoming a moderate breeze. Winds are likely to peak this evening and tomorrow evening. Broad troughing set to take shape over the Central Bahamas over the next several days will then migrate westward across the Keys region through the back half of the week. Breezes will slacken and steadily veer east to southeast. Along with this trough, expect increasing moisture and shower and thunder chances to increase sharply after mid week and fall back towards normal heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Shower and thunder chances will be near normal. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the east. Winds are expected to begin strengthening modestly out of the northeast to east this afternoon and evening. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278895 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 355 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat. && .DISCUSSION... As of 214 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat. Early morning weather analysis shows a strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the United States with its axis stretching into far northern Canada. With ridge stretching into far northern Canada this allows the 1026mb surface high to move over New England. The high pressure is in optimal position to allow winds to decouple inland and skies to remain clear across the area. The decoupled winds and clear skies is allowing radiational cooling to occur and let temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s inland. However, along the coast temperatures continue to remain in the low 70s as winds continue to blow off the warm waters. Through sunrise, expect temps to drop into the low to middle 50s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Through the day high pressure will continue to push eastward eventually moving offshore. This will allow for a favorable early fall like day across the area. Skies are likely to remain mostly clear and temperatures will likely struggle to reach 80 in some areas. Highs for the day are likely to be in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid 70s along the coast. By tonight, temperatures will be similar as the previous night with lows in the middle to upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast. As the week progresses the high pressure off the New England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low- mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average temps to return to the forecast area with highs in the upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions continue through the 06z taf period. Clear skies continue through the morning. Winds have became light and variable inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are forecasted as high pressure dominated todays weather pattern. Skies are forecasted to remain mostly clear with winds continue to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light and variable again tonight. Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR conditions given high pressure over the region. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the area today, lingering into this evening for the southern ocean zones. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week. An expansive area of high pressure is centered across Quebec and the NE CONUS, slowly drifting east to New England, and forecast to become centered off the New England coast and Atlantic Canada later today into tonight. The pressure gradient slowly weakens for the local area as the sfc high builds E-SE, allowing NE winds to decrease to 10-15 kt or less later today. SCAs currently in effect for the Bay and Currituck sound should drop off later this morning, but seas will likely linger ~5 ft through day for the southern ocean zones. This pattern often keeps seas off the NC coast elevated longer than the models predict, so would not be surprised to see an extension through tonight for NC waters (for now they end at 7 PM). The sfc high is forecast to drift south and be nearly overhead of the local waters Wed-Thu, with winds shifting to the E-SE and dropping off to 5-10 kt. Seas are expected to subside to 2-3 ft by Thursday, with sub- SCA conditions continuing Friday. For the weekend, the models have trended a bit stronger with the next frontal passage and another sfc high building to our NE. This could lead to strong enough onshore flow and possible SCAs but with high uncertainty at this range. A High Rip Current risk is in effect today for VA Beach and Currituck NC given 5 ft nearshore seas (even with a fairly short dominant period ~6sec), with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Seas are expected to gradually diminish later today into Wed- for now a Moderate Rip Risk in effect for all beaches, though if seas stay above 4 ft into Wed (possible across NC waters), an upgrade to a High Risk may be needed as the E-NE swell continues (shore normal for southern beaches) along with the dominant period increasing to 7-8 seconds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1278893 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 326 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Dropped the Small Craft Advisory for the sounds and rivers. Made minor adjustments to the end times of the SCA for the near shore coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected through mid week with a warming trend late in the work week. 2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...An upper ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS and sfc high pressure ridging in from the north will keep dry conditions across ENC through much of the work week. However, upper low retrograding to the SSW across the offshore waters Thursday into Friday may bring a few showers near the Gulf Stream, but dry conditions expected to persist across land areas. NE winds will continue through mid week bringing seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through, then will see gradually warming and increasing dewpoints Thursday into Friday as high pressure weakens and slides offshore allowing low level flow to veer to southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak cold front will drop south into the area Saturday and briefly stall before lifting back north as a cold front on Sunday. Sfc convergence and lowering heights aloft as shortwave energy rides over the upper ridge along with increasing moisture will allow for a better chance of showers and thuderstorms across the area over the weekend and into early next week, especially through peak heating when instability is greatest. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will ridge into the area from the north through the TAF period bringing pred VFR conditions. NE winds will prevail with gusts to around 15-20 kt possible mid morning through the afternoon when deeper mixing ensues. Sufficent mixing and a dry airmass will preclude fog development this morning, but light/calm winds Tuesday night could allow for patchy shallow fog development inland. Outlook (Wed through Sat): High pressure builds in through the middle of the week with predominantly VFR and dry conditions expected. A cold front is progged to push south into the area over the weekend bringing increased chances of precip. && .MARINE... Current buoy obs show NE winds generally around 15-20 kt with higher gusts to around 25-30 kt over the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream, while seas are around 4-6 ft. Winds are just beginning to diminish and gusts have dropped below SCA criteria for the sounds and river and have cancelled the SCA for these zones. Seas have not built as high as expected but are seeing seas up to 6 ft in most zones and will continue the SCA for the near shore coastal waters. However, did shorten the end times as guidance has seas dropping below criteria around mid day today for all zones except the central waters where guidance keeps seas up to 6 ft into Wednesday. Outlook (Wed through Sat): NE winds around 15 kt or less continues on Wednesday, then will become light and veer to SE then S on Thursday into Friday as the high to the north weakens. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Saturday and briefly stall bringing light and variable winds across the waters. Lingering 6 ft seas across the central waters are expected to drop below SCA criteria by late Wednesday, if not sooner. Seas around 3-5 ft continues Thursday, then subsides to 2-4 ft Friday into Satuday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1278892 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 303 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight. - Seasonably warm temperatures return mid-week, continuing through Friday. A few showers possible sometime late Thursday into early Friday, otherwise mainly dry. - Potential for a shift to an unsettled pattern with chances for rain for second half of weekend through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight. Surface high pressure will be positioned the region today bringing dry conditions and mainly sunny skies. A cooler airmass will be in place with 925mb temperatures several degrees cooler than Monday. This will yield more "Fall-like" temperatures with high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Locations along the immediate east coast may even be cooler in the mid 60s as a result of the light easterly onshore flow. The high pressure center shifts offshore tonight shifting winds to the S then SW. KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonably warm temperatures return mid-week, continuing through Friday. A few showers possible sometime late Thursday into early Friday, otherwise mainly dry. A strong upper level ridge/high remains positioned across the southeast CONUS mid-week, subtly building into the northeast mid- week. An upper trough in northern Canada will hold off any stronger ridging from building into the northeast, favoring a flatter/zonal pattern overall. This should support warmer temperatures advecting in within the SW flow. Highs Wednesday/Thursday rise back into the mid and upper 70s with 80s in the valleys (seasonably warm for mid- Sept). Surface high pressure should support mainly dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble/deterministic guidance indicates potential for a weak shortwave trough to drop in from the northwest late Thursday into Friday. Ahead of this shortwave, a plume of anomalous moisture advects in from the west on Thursday. Across ensemble guidance, the PWATs run around 170-200 percent of normal or more directly put, PWATs 1.7-1.9". The anomalous moisture is being signal across NAEFS guidance as well. This building moisture will bring a more humid day for Thursday. There is some spread across guidance with regards to the timing of the showers; however, there is general agreement of the highest chances falling in the late Thu afternoon to early Fri morning timeframe. That timeframe should be able to be narrowed down as the details of the pattern become more clear as we go through the week. Despite the anomalous moisture, the weaker lift with this wave and later timing has limited the potential for widespread heavy rain. Ensemble QPF remains below 0.50" for most areas. We`ll have to keep an eye on some embedded heavier showers that could bring locally higher amounts. A drier airmass pushes in behind the exiting shortwave Friday bringing dry conditions dominating by the afternoon. A cooler airmass sinks across the region by Saturday bring a return of Fall-like temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a shift to an unsettled pattern with chances or rain for second half of weekend through early next week. Ensemble guidance hints at a transition to a more unsettled pattern for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. A low pressure system tracks eastward from the Great Lakes bringing increased precipitation chances more likely in the Sun-Mon timeframe. There indications of another wave or two bringing periods of rain for early next week as well. Confidence in precipitation chances and timing should increase as we get closer. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Light N/NNE winds. Occasional gusts to 18 kts possible for Cape terminals through 08Z (HYA/ACK). Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. NNE winds this morning shifting to the NE at 5-10 kts. Interior terminals shift likely shift to the S/SSE early afternoon while coastal terminals shift to E/ESE in the afternoon then shift to the S/SSE 00-03Z. Tuesday night...High confidence. VFR. Winds becoming light S to SW. Patchy fog possible in valleys. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NNE winds shift to NE this morning then shift E/ESE 16-18Z at 5-10 kts. Winds shift toward the SSE/S around 00Z becoming S/SSW by 03Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High pressure overhead today bringing light easterly winds today and tonight. Winds shift around to the S/SW overnight tonight into Wednesday as the high pressure center shifts offshore. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1278891 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 304 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 - Showers and localized thunderstorms are expected over the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the morning hours and for the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. - A tropical wave is expected to reach the region by Wednesday afternoon increasing the potential for the development of deep convection into Thursday. - With increased chances for rainfall expected today, Wednesday and Thursday, the chances for flooding will be the highest on Thursday. - There is a moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday for some beaches across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. && .Short Term(Today through Thursday)... Issued at 253 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 Atmospheric conditions for today are expected to be favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level low located to the west-northwest of the islands continues to drive upper level divergence across the CWA bringing instability to the region. Additionally, a surge in moisture at low levels to the south of the region continues to maintain seasonal precipitable water (PWAT) values (1.75-2.2 inches). With moist low levels and sub- saturated mid-levels, along with with mid-tropospheric temperatures nearing the -8 degrees Celsius, the thermodynamic environment also favors the potential for the development of deep convection. Thus, we forecast that these synoptic, thermodynamic and local effect features (i.e., diurnal heating, local orographic effects, and sea- breeze convergence) will lead to the development of widespread shower and localized thunderstorm activity primarily focused on the interior and western regions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Furthermore, a surge in PWAT values located to the southeast of the windward islands, in combination with the ESE wind flow, may also favor the development of advective showers over the region during the morning hours with a focus over the US Virgin Islands, windward waters, and eastern-southeastern sectors of Puerto Rico. Thus, the excessive rainfall risk for today is elevated. This means that flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes is possible, with a low chance of isolated flash flooding. This elevated risk for excessive rainfall will persist for the remainder of the short term forecast. By early Wednesday morning a drier airmass will reach the forecast region bringing PWAT values down (1.33-1.7 inches). While this may limit shower activity during the early morning, the fair conditions will be short-lived as by late Wednesday morning into the afternoon a moist air mass associated with a tropical wave will make its way into the CWA bringing above seasonal PWAT values (2.0-2.5 inches) to the region. The tropical wave in combination with the upper-level low to the west-northwest, low-level moisture surge to the south, ESE wind flow, and local effects will increase the potential for the development of convection by Wednesday afternoon with the primary focus being across the US Virgin Islands, as well as the eastern, interior and northwestern sectors of Puerto Rico. However, the bulk of the activity associated to the tropical wave is expected by Thursday. With the synoptic and thermodynamic environment favoring the development of widespread convection and localized thunderstorm activity across eastern, interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. With increased cloud coverage expected through Thursday, the heat risk for today and the remainder of the short term forecast remains limited. This level of heat affects primarily those individuals with extreme sensitivity to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. We recommend that individuals be cautions when pursuing outdoor activities and to remain well hydrated. && .Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)... Issued at 253 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 For the first part of the long-term forecast period, model guidance suggests that moisture will remain generally near or above climatological normals. From Friday, residual moisture associated with the previous tropical wave will linger across the region, with precipitable water values remaining mainly between 1.7 and 2.0 inches, which is slightly above climatological values. Although the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model V5 suggest some light concentrations of Saharan Dust particles. Mid-level relative humidity will also remain relatively high, staying mostly near the 75th percentile and at times approaching +2 standard deviation threshold, supporting sufficient moisture for shower development. However, a broad mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic may enhance relatively warm 500 mb temperatures in the -5 degrees Celsius range, favoring some mid-level stability and limiting widespread deep convection. Easterly winds will prevail through Saturday, with some upper-level cloudiness also expected. Therefore, passing showers will remain possible across windward areas, followed by afternoon convection mainly across interior and western Puerto Rico due to local and diurnal effects. From Sunday through Tuesday, a surface high pressure building across the central Atlantic will promote a gradual veering of the winds, becoming more southeasterly. Model guidance suggests that moisture will remain available across the region, with precipitable water generally near or above the 50th percentile and occasionally approaching the 75th percentile. This moisture will be partly associated with an induced surface trough over the central Atlantic, north of the region, which will promote periods of cloudiness and showers across the area. At the mid-levels, marginally favorable conditions will persist, with 500 mb temperatures near -6 degrees Celsius potentially supporting a few thunderstorms where sufficient moisture and instability are present. In general, the combination of sufficient moisture, moderate southeasterly winds, and local effects will maintain the potential for passing showers and afternoon convection through early next week. Additionally, the available low- level moisture and southeasterly winds will favor warmer temperatures, particularly along northern coastal and urban areas. Therefore, a limited to locally significant heat threat can be expected during this portion of the period. Residents are urged to stay hydrated and follow recommendations from local health officials. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 253 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, brief -SHRA possible at TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru 15/11z. Locally induced SHRA/TSRA developing over the interior and Western PR may lead to tempo MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJPS btw 15/18-22z. Mostly VCTS expected at TJSJ btw 15/16z-20z. East winds 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations and stronger gusts at times expected aft 15/13z. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 A weak surface high north of the region and lower pressure across the southwestern Caribbean will maintain moderate easterly trade winds through midweek. Seas will generally range from 3 to 5 feet, with the highest seas across the offshore waters and local passages. A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic will continue westward and approach the eastern Caribbean Wednesday into Thursday, increasing the frequency of showers and thunderstorms across the regional waters. Moderate easterly trade winds are expected to persist into the weekend. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 253 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today along much of the north-facing coast of Puerto Rico, becoming more localized Wednesday and Thursday. Another increase is expected along the north coast on Friday, with generally lower risk conditions over the weekend. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect western Puerto Rico, while a tropical wave will increase showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Beachgoers should seek shelter immediately if thunder is heard. Hot and humid conditions will also persist. Stay hydrated and limit prolonged sun exposure during the hottest part of the day. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1278890 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Turning windy, especially at the coast, late this afternoon through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - A wet pattern of onshore moving showers and a few storms is forecast mid to late week. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Today-Tonight... A surface front extending over the western Atlantic and through portions of the southeast U.S. early today is pushed further east-southeastward as high pressure expands along the eastern seaboard. Deep moisture persists across central Florida, south of the surface boundary. East-northeast onshore winds begin to increase 10-15 mph this afternoon as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten. Showers and storms over the local Atlantic early in the day should occasionally push onshore. A diffuse sea breeze looks to develop late morning and the into early afternoon bringing the greatest chances (50-60%) for showers and storms inland, west of I-95, after 12PM. Inland activity diminishes into early evening, while isolated to scattered rounds of showers and storms should continue along the coast through the overnight. Poor lapse rates should generally limit organized stronger storms today. However, increasing background flow and winds aloft could still allow for developing convection to produce wind gusts 40-50 mph. Otherwise, hazards remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonal around the upper 80s and low 90s, but humid conditions will still produce peak heat index values in the low triple digits (100-107F). Overnight low temperatures will mostly range the mid to upper 70s, remaining warmest along the coast. Wednesday-Thursday... Continued tightening of the local pressure gradient will further increase onshore flow to around 15-20+ mph Wednesday with peak gusts 25-30 mph at times. This will prompt a period of poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions, and a high risk of life threatening rip currents along with rough surf is expected at all local beaches. East-northeast winds diminish to 10-15 mph Thursday, remaining breezy, and a high risk of rip currents is expected to continue. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised! A drier airmass advects across central Florida on Wednesday with a tight moisture gradient extended southward through Lake Okeechobee. The PoP forecast mostly reflects this showing lower rain chances north of the Orlando Metro within the area of driest air. However, moistening of the lower levels within increased onshore flow should still allow for slight rain chances along the Volusia and northern Brevard Coast, and can`t rule out a few of these showers sneaking further inland. Otherwise, deeper moisture south should allow for rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms throughout the day, continuing along the coast into Wednesday night. Some slight adjustments have been made to the forecast into Thursday as a mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic approaches Florida. Of note, some model guidance has slowed the westward progression of this feature. These slower solutions hold onto the drier airmass across portions of north-central Florida longer than some of the previous forecast cycles. Therefore, rain chances Thursday may look more similar to what is forecast Wednesday favoring continued rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a few storms across the south with lower rain chances north, especially northwest of I-4. High temperatures are forecast near normal Wednesday and Thursday, mostly reaching the upper 80s and near 90s degrees. Morning lows in the 70s will be highest along the coast. Areas along the Barrier Islands may struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark each morning. Friday-Monday... An unsettled pattern is forecast late week and into early next week as the mid to upper level trough passes over Florida and into the Gulf. Moisture recovers behind the trough, expanding moderate to high rain chances more areawide. Light easterly winds veer southeast to south late in the weekend, becoming locally enhanced onshore as a weak sea breeze develops each day. Afternoon temperatures continue to hold near normal in the upper 80s and close to 90s degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Poor to hazardous boating conditions begin build late this afternoon through mid week as high pressure expands across the eastern U.S. Light onshore winds early today increase 15-20 kts north of the Cape into the evening as the local pressure gradient begins to tighten. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late this evening and overnight for the Volusia and Brevard waters as east-northeast winds further increase 20-25 kts. Winds 15-20 kts spread south of the Sebastian Inlet late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Seas begin to build 6-8 ft across the northern Volusia waters after midnight Wednesday, spreading southward through the Treasure Coast early Wednesday afternoon and prompting the Small Craft Advisory to be expanded into the Treasure Coast waters. Winds and seas show a diminishing trend early Thursday, and favorable boating conditions return to the local Atlantic waters Friday. A generally wet pattern begins today and is forecast through late week as a mid to upper level low approaches and passes west of the local Atlantic waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Mostly dry through the overnight hours, though onshore-moving showers are forecast to move into coastal areas by sunrise. Expect these showers to persist through much of the period, despite perhaps a short window in the afternoon. However, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve onshore-moving convection, have included VCSH through the end of the TAF period along the coast. VCSH reaches interior locations by mid-morning (15Z). A few TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, though primarily SH is forecast, and could lead to brief reductions in CIGs/VIS. SH tapers off by 23Z inland, before additional showers persist progressively farther into the interior after 6Z. E/ENE flow through the TAF period, increasing to 10-12 kts through the day. Winds look to remain elevated overnight, especially along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 78 88 76 / 50 40 40 10 MCO 91 76 89 74 / 60 20 30 0 MLB 89 79 88 77 / 50 70 70 30 VRB 89 77 88 75 / 50 70 70 50 LEE 91 76 89 73 / 60 10 10 0 SFB 90 76 88 74 / 50 30 40 0 ORL 90 77 88 75 / 60 20 40 0 FPR 89 77 88 75 / 60 60 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1278889 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 246 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Consistent guidance regarding the upcoming week, so forecast changes were minor. Increased winds (mainly today) as the surge following the cold front expands southwestward. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington through 3 PM. Surf zone headlines remain unchanged. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday. Latest surface analysis shows the cold front progressing nicely through northeast SC early this morning. Dry air following the cold front has brought dew points in the 60s and mixing during peak heating today should bring us into the 50s away from the coast. Cooler temperatures and northeast winds will be a welcomed sight to an otherwise hot September to this point. However, high temperatures will only drop to near normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with gradual warming through the end of the week. Lows could drop into the upper 50s for our inland areas tonight; chances increase on Wednesday night. Dry for the upcoming work week with rain chances returning this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR CIGs at the coastal terminals will gradually dissipate prior to 08Z as drier air builds behind a cold front. VFR thereafter. Steady gradient will produce 10-15 knot NE winds today, gusting to 20 knots at times at the coast. Extended Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through Thursday in a drier and cooler airmass. May see an uptick in SHRA/TSRA by Friday and Saturday, but confidence is limited at this time with any potential restrictions. && .MARINE... Northeasterly winds continue to build this morning behind a cold front. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through this evening with periodic gusts up to 25 knots and seas up to 6 feet. The fetch will persist into Thursday as the surface ridge axis resides across the Carolinas and a late- week surface trough keeps the gradient pinched. Winds and seas improve on Friday as the gradient weakens and winds turn easterly. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256. && $$ |
| #1278888 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 248 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy Dense Fog Expected Early This Morning for inland counties. - High Rip Current Risk & Rough Surf Today through Thursday. Breezy Onshore Winds Overspread Coastal Locations today. Wind Gusts at Area Beaches likely to be around 35 mph Tuesday through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories in effect today through Thursday, with Wind Advisories Possible for Coastal Locations. - Waves of Showers & Thunderstorms Today, Thursday & Friday, Mainly Along the I-95 Corridor && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Gusty Winds Today from out of the Northeast - Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon Breezy onshore northeasterly winds will build in from out of the Atlantic and press inland this afternoon as the pressure gradient of high pressure ridging extending in from out of the north tightens, resulting in frequent wind gusts of about 30 mph in addition to diurnal convection developing over the region from out of the east, with more widespread developments occurring over coastal areas and spreading inland through the day. Reduced rain chances expected over inland southeast Georgia. Early morning fog over inland areas today is expected to lift before mid-morning. High temperatures this afternoon will reach up into the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s for coastal counties. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index values for this afternoon will rise to 105 for portions of northeast Florida, remaining below heat advisory levels. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - A high rip current risk and rough surf at area beaches. - Breezy northeast winds expected. A Wind Advisory is possible for the coastal areas on Wednesday. An atypical mid to upper level high pressure system will be over the TN valley on Wednesday. The 500 mb heights over the TN valley area may be record setting for this time of year, close at around 590-600 decameters. Further east, a mid to upper level trough will extend from the Bahamas northeast into the western Atlantic. Both of these systems will retrograde on Wednesday while the surface high pressure ridge along the east coast continues to play a role in maintaining gusty northeast flow for the area. Much drier air will be over the area as noted in prior forecasts, with precipitable water values of below 1.4 inches for most areas with mean layer 1000-500 mb northeast flow noted in guidance. This will result in low precip chances at about 15-25 percent for the forecast area. Most convective activity will be confined to the coastal locations but given the winds aloft may move all the way to the 301 corridor. For winds, sustained northeast winds of about 15-25 mph with gusts around 35 mph, especially for the coast. A wind advisory cannot be ruled out for gusts of near 40 mph. Wednesday night, mostly clear skies expected as the dry air persists. Northeast flow will slowly decrease, but still remain breezy for the coast at 15-20 mph and gusty. Lows temperatures will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s, but remain elevated in the mid 70s at the coast due to the onshore flow. Isolated showers may move ashore overnight as well. For Thursday, the weather pattern will continue to be impacted by the anomalous mid to upper level high over the western TN valley and the approach of the mid/upper level trough. The upper level trough will work through the area late in the day and Thursday night bringing a bit more unsettled pattern to the area and an increase in moisture. A slight decrease in the surface winds is expected, but we still see breezy northeast winds affecting the area. Moisture will gradually increase with the best rain chances at 30-40 percent for the coastal areas and lower chances at 10-20 percent inland northeast FL. It looks like inland southeast GA remains dry. Chances of showers at 20-30 percent will remain possible overnight Thursday night given the moderated onshore flow. Temperatures continue to be fairly warm with the mid 80s coast and to about 90 further inland. Lows forecast in the mid to upper 60s for inland southeast GA and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible - Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches will continue this period The mid to upper level trough from the Atlantic will be moving westward across the region early Friday. An associated sfc trough will also be moving through the area and bring with it a more moist and unstable airmass. Mean low level flow becomes more easterly with a weaker pressure gradient and lighter winds are expected to develop. Blended model guidance shows scattered showers and embedded storms for Friday mainly across northeast FL, with the drier air still lingering over parts of southeast GA where only isolated convection is anticipated. For the weekend and Monday, surface high pressure moves off to the northeast of the area with pressure gradient supporting light southeast low level flow. Given the high moisture forecast in current model output with PWATs of about 2 inches, we are advertising diurnally driven numerous showers and scattered storms helped by the sea breezes and outflow boundaries. POPs are forecast up to the 50-70 percent range, with some locally heavy rainfall possible for inland northeast FL. Overall, high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Patchy to areas of fog and lower cloud decks are expected to develop over inland areas overnight and into Tuesday morning, with visibility levels for VQQ and GNV lifting by around 11z to 13z. Gusty northeasterly onshore winds will build today with coastal sites with sustained winds of about 10 to 15 knots with frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible with breezy onshore winds will continue through Tuesday night. Daytime convection will build along the coast and extend inland, with a greater likelihood for showers and storms developing over SSI and SGJ, with showers lingering into the night for coastal northeast Florida. && .MARINE... Onshore winds will build across area waters today through Thursday as a tightening pressure gradient associated with high pressure to the north builds through midweek with an accompanying frontal passage pushing through from out of the east, bringing small craft advisory conditions, rough seas, and waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area waters through much of the week. Improving conditions are expected by Friday as onshore winds weaken and seas gradually lower. Rip Currents: Strengthening northeast winds and building surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk for area beaches during the morning hours this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. Strong high pressure will build to the northeast as a backdoor cool front moves through today. Much higher winds begin by midday today for the coastal areas with speeds up to 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30- 35 mph. These elevated winds remain in place for Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, especially at the coast. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms expected today, and mostly isolated on Wednesday. The high pressure north of the area will weaken Friday, with another high building to the northeast over the weekend. Strong surface and transport winds will lead to areas of high daytime dispersion for the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. Fog Potential...Patchy dense fog expected early Tuesday morning inland areas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We are a few days past the new moon phase, and tidal water levels are still elevated to about 0.5 to 0.8 ft MHHW. Despite the strengthening onshore flow the next few days, we are currently not expecting much in the way of coastal flooding concerns, with water levels expected to be just shy of 1 foot MHHW through Wednesday. As we get more water piling up and persistent onshore flow, peak water levels may be around 1 foot or a little higher by Thursday and Friday, and so still below advisory levels. These higher levels may be within the St Johns River basin and will be monitored in subsequent observations and forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 69 89 68 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 86 77 86 77 / 60 30 20 10 JAX 88 75 88 73 / 50 40 10 10 SGJ 87 78 86 76 / 70 50 20 30 GNV 89 73 89 72 / 50 20 0 0 OCF 90 74 90 72 / 50 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474. && $$ |
| #1278887 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 237 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that develop. - Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Ridge of high pressure has shifting north. This has shifted our wind flow to an easterly direction. This will change our timing of shower activity with inland areas seeing them in the afternoon while coastal areas see in the late afternoon and evening hours. As we head into our Wednesday an upper level low will start to approach the state. Ahead of the low we will see dryer air especially along and north of I-4 where showers will not be expected. At the same time at the surface winds will start to increase our of the east. We will see sustained wind around 15 mph and with gust as high as 25. This upper level low will start to push through on Thursday. As it does so winds will stay elevated and drier air will remain north of I-4. The upper level low will move away from the state on Friday as winds start to calm down. Even though we will see enough moisture aloft for storms both Thursday and Friday the upper level low will bring some drier air at the surface. This will allow morning lows to be slightly cooler with most of us in the low to mid 70`s instead of the mid to upper 70`s. Dewpoints and temperatures could drop into the upper 60`s for some inland area along the Nature Coast. By the weekend the upper level low will be gone as easterly flow continues. This will result in storm chances favoring the west coast once again through the weekend and next Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Wind flow has shifted more easterly thanks to the upper level ridge shifting north. This will result in early afternoon storms inland with late afternoon and evening storms along the west coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Ridge has shifted north which will shift winds more easterly around 5 to 10 knots. An upper level low will start to approach the area on Wednesday and push through Florida Thursday. This will result in winds to quickly pick up out of the east. These winds will peak Wednesday night with 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30. By Friday the upper level low will start to push away resulting in winds slowly coming down. By Saturday afternoon wind speeds will return to 5 to 10 knots out of the southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Deeper layer moisture remain over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through mid week. We will not have any major fire weather concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 77 90 74 / 60 20 40 0 FMY 92 76 91 75 / 60 30 70 20 GIF 92 76 90 74 / 60 10 50 0 SRQ 93 76 92 74 / 70 30 60 10 BKV 93 74 91 71 / 60 10 20 0 SPG 92 78 91 76 / 60 20 40 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1278885 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 239 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms focus mainly across Southwest Florida today. Frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any storms. - An approaching upper-level low is expected to bring increasingly unsettled weather for the middle to end of this week. - High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s across South FL each day, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The mid-week period consists of the formation of a Rex Block ridge that covers most of the central and eastern CONUS. In the western Atlantic, an upper-level low will be strengthening and advecting southwestwards underneath this ridge, which will effectively pull the low directly towards the Florida Peninsula given the where the ridge is located. While this upper-level low is not likely to reach our region until Wednesday night, we will still see the effects of it for this mid- week period. Firstly, the pressure gradient will enhance as the low approaches in conjunction with the ridge strengthening. Latest HREF/LREF and other ensemble data suggests around a 70-80% chance that H500 heights will reach 600 decameters as a result of the amplifying ridge over the eastern U.S., which would be above the 90th percentile for heights. As a result, the pressure gradient will strengthen and lead to a period of breezier easterly to northeasterly winds beginning as soon as later this afternoon, but definitely for tomorrow. With the lack of a surface low forming, not expecting these winds to be overly strong, but they will be above average in breeziness. Secondly, forcing for ascent will increase via positive vorticity advection occurring towards South Florida, which will provide energy for the production of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the increase in northeasterly flow, we should see the brunt of activity focusing in SW Florida, but speed convergence and early diurnal processes is expected to result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms in SE Florida as well for today and tomorrow. Overall, given the increasing amount of showers and storms that are expected to form across the region over the next several days, the primary concern will be for excessive rainfall flooding although the risk for this also doesn`t seem that high. HREF LPMM generally highlights a high-end scenario around 4-5" in a short time frame (~2 hours) with 90th percentile QPF (a reasonable high-end) of 2-4" total over the next few days combined. Additionally, severe parameters (lapse rates, CAPE/DCAPE, shear, etc.) are relatively benign, although of course an isolated strong core remains possible to occur via max convergence of low level boundaries that are able to spark a more robust updraft. Nevertheless, this has a very low chance of occurrence so not expecting much of a severe threat here through the period. High temperatures across the region will generally reach the low 90s still through mid-week, with some areas seeing max temps in the upper 80s. Overnight lows for Tuesday night will range from the low to mid 70s across SW Florida to the upper 70s and low 80s for the east coast metro areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The stout 600 decameter H5 heat dome will finally begin to weaken and shift west for the latter half of the week. The main high pressure center will move west of the Mississippi by Thursday, with mid-level height falls occurring across Florida as and inverted trough begins to push west across the Gulf Stream. There is very good agreement amongst both ensemble and deterministic guidance that a cut-off upper low will develop on the southeast side of the ridge. This will occur as part of the upper level jet detaches from the main flow over the Great Lakes, creating a Rex Block pattern across the southeast, with deepening low pressure over Florida and persistent ridging over the Deep South. This shift in the upper level pattern will create much more unsettled weather across South Florida, with PoPs climbing above 80% each day through the end of the week. Continued deep moisture (with PWATs above 2 inches) and increased forcing aloft should allow for scattered to numerous storms to develop across the region. While there is still some spread in the guidance, most ensemble QPF clusters are only showing about 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall for the Thursday through Friday period. These amounts shouldn`t result in anything more than a few isolated urban flooding impacts for low lying and poor drainage locations. At the surface, pressure gradients will relax across the region after Wednesday, knocking down ENE winds back to around ten knots. This should result in slower and more erratic storm motions, with development following outflow and boundary collisions. But with the upper low moving overhead, increased forcing may allow for a few training storms to hit the same area multiple times. As the low crosses into the Gulf over the weekend, there is also an indication that there could be some coastal convergence and pinned coastal storms. While not quite perpendicular to each other, winds at 500 and 700 mbs will be out of the SW, while winds at the surface will be out of the E to NE. This may lead to slow moving storms and enhanced moisture convergence along the Paradise Coast, which also happens to be where most ensemble QPF clusters show the highest rainfall amounts to be (although mostly offshore). While more uncertain, there will also be an isolated threat of severe weather as the disturbance crosses the region. Some models are showing that 500 mb temperatures may drop into the -8 to -9 C range, within the 25th percentile for this time of year. This could result in some steeper lapse rates, allowing for some stronger cores to develop and for a low chance of hail and strong downburst winds. However, increased cloud cover may inhibit the amount of diurnal heating and instability that accumulates throughout the day, keeping the threat of strong storms more conditional and low confidence. Overall, highs will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across SoFlo, with lows in the 70s. Once the upper low ejects out to the west on Sunday, we should return to our more typical sea-breeze dominated wind regime, with scattered afternoon storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR is expected to prevail for most of the period. VCSH/SHRA expected to develop after 13-14Z today with VCTS later this afternoon after 18-20Z. KAPF will see the most activity due to winds being out of the E/ENE, which will put KAPF at highest risk for on site restrictions. The winds at KAPF will also shift out of the west after about 18Z. With a disturbance approaching for later this week, SHRA/TS development overnight looks likely, especially across the east coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Benign conditions continue today, but increasing winds and seas are expected to arrive Wednesday towards the end of the week as a disturbance approaches from the western Atlantic. For today, a gentle northeasterly flow is expected across the Atlantic waters with light to gentle winds in the Gulf shifting to the SW in the afternoon. Seas remain at 2 feet or less for today. For Wednesday, northeast winds will increase, becoming moderate to fresh over the Atlantic waters and fresh to strong for the Gulf waters. Additionally, seas are expected to rise to 5-8 feet in the Atlantic by late Wednesday with Gulf seas at 3-5 feet. Therefore, increasingly hazardous conditions for small craft will be developing over the next several days and may require an advisory. Other than winds and seas, an increased number of shower and thunderstorms are also expected. && .BEACHES... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The risk for rip currents will rise beginning on Wednesday and into the late week period as increased onshore winds and swell arrive due to a disturbance approaching from the western Atlantic. This risk is expected to remain elevated for several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 89 77 / 40 50 70 60 West Kendall 90 77 89 75 / 40 40 60 40 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 79 / 40 50 70 60 Homestead 91 78 90 79 / 40 50 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 88 79 / 40 60 70 70 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 89 78 / 50 60 70 70 Pembroke Pines 90 78 89 77 / 40 50 70 60 West Palm Beach 90 79 90 78 / 60 60 70 70 Boca Raton 89 80 88 78 / 60 60 70 80 Naples 92 76 92 75 / 70 30 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278886 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 239 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today, with heat index values generally reaching 100-107 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday afternoon. - A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected through late this week. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Surface ridging will build south through the Appalachians beginning today while the surface high pressure slides off the northeast US coast. Upper high remains in the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. A weak surface boundary will lead the push of drier air and an uptick in breezy northeasterly winds progged to reach the area late this afternoon along I-75. Before this, today will be another day of highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s yielding heat index values of 100-107 (higher end of range closer to the coast where the higher dewpoints will reside). Any showers that develop would be relegated to the immediate coast and eastern Big Bend. The dry air will push PWATs down towards an inch Wednesday and Thursday while breezy northeast winds pick up with gusts around 25 mph in the late morning through afternoon hours. Dewpoints may actually dip into the upper 50s across the wiregrass Wednesday and Thursday while highs will be slightly cooler with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows Thursday morning will fall into the mid 60s through the wiregrass which is a welcome change, albeit brief, from the lower 70s south of I-10. Rain chances will be limited and generally over the Gulf waters and Florida Big Bend. An upper low will reach the Bahamas Thursday moving westward into the northeast Gulf Friday, then the Global models diverge on how to handle the movement of this feature through the weekend (Euro keeps the upper low to our east into early next week whereas the GFS continues its trek westward towards the mouth of the Mississippi river). Regardless, the upper high retreats westward relinquishing the hold on drier air through the column as PWATs gradually work towards 2 inches this weekend. As such, rain chances make a return first south of I-10 Friday then back into the entirety of the area this weekend. As the subsidence exits stage left and the upper low, clouds, and higher rain chances envelope the area, highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog is possible late in the night near VLD with MVFR vsbys possible. Otherwise, the only other impact in the TAF period will be gusty easterly winds late morning through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Winds become northeast to east this morning as high pressure builds to our north. Initial light to moderate winds become moderate to strong beginning this evening as easterly surges develop over the Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon. Although a reprieve in the strong winds may occur Wednesday afternoon, it will be short-lived with strong winds returning Wednesday night persisting into Thursday afternoon. As a result of the stronger winds, seas will build to 4 to 6 feet, with occasional 8 feet in offshore waters. Small craft advisories are in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually relax into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 As high pressure builds to the northeast, transport winds will become easterly with speeds of 10-15 mph today and 15-20 mph for Wednesday and Thursday. Dispersion values will increase to high for the Florida and Alabama Wiregrass regions, and the ANF near and along I-10 today. High dispersions continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with pockets of high dispersions throughout all the districts. As drier air will be filtering in, afternoon humidities will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s through much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s today with heat indices ranging from 100-107. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast beginning Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 No flash or riverine flooding expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 73 90 70 / 30 10 0 0 Panama City 94 76 91 72 / 30 20 0 0 Dothan 94 73 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 95 71 91 65 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 93 71 91 68 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 92 74 90 71 / 50 10 0 0 Apalachicola 89 78 89 74 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1278883 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 234 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible with the midday high tide along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. - 2) There is a High risk of rip currents for the GA beaches through Wednesday. - 3) Not as hot today through Thursday, followed above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible with the midday high tide along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. Northeast winds will strengthen this morning, becoming strong and gusty. These winds will cause tidal departures to increase. The Charleston Harbor astronomical tide will be 5.98 ft MLLW at 11:46 AM. The tidal departure would need to be just over 1 ft for the minor coastal flooding threshold of 7 ft MLLW to be reached. Guidance indicates this could briefly be achieved, so a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed. No coastal flooding is expected further south along the far southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a High risk of rip currents for the GA beaches through Wednesday. Northeast winds will strengthen this morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon, and persisting through Wednesday. This will lead to an elevated east northeast swell along our coast this afternoon through Wednesday. The strongest winds and highest seas should be along our GA coast. This is where there is a High risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Along our SC coast, there is a Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Winds and seas should trend lower on Thursday, reducing the risk of rip currents along our coast. KEY MESSAGE 3: Not as hot today through Thursday, followed above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend. Satellite and KCLX shows the backdoor or wedge front pushing south across the forecast area this morning. In the wake of the front, northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Northeast winds should bring cooler llvl thicknesses across the forecast area, building a late-summer CAD. Temperatures will peak several degrees lower than yesterday, ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front, generally tracking across SE GA and adjacent waters. Wednesday and Thursday, wedged high pressure will remain across the region, maintaining a nose of drier air with cooler llvl thicknesses. High temperatures are forecast to range around normal, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Stable conditions across the CWA should yield dry conditions both days. Nearly a 600dm ridge will remain centered around southern Appalachians today through Wed, then sliding west on Thursday. Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, dry weather is expected through the rest of work week. On Friday, GFS and ECMWF indicate a closed H5 low tracking west across FL over the Gulf. The closed low will pass over the Mississippi Delta by Sunday afternoon. Circulation around the low will increase moisture across the Southeast U.S. this weekend. Warm and moist conditions should favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze, this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, IR satellite and KCLX indicated that the backdoor or wedge front was advancing south across the Santee River. The front should push across KCHS and KJZI by 9Z, turning winds from the NE. Once mixing begins this morning, east-northeast winds should develop gusts between 20-25 kts. Gusty east-northest winds will likely continue through the rest of the daylight hours. Gusts should end this evening. At KSAV, the backdoor front should reach the terminal around daybreak, turning winds from the northeast. By 14Z, gusts between 20- 25 kts should develop across the terminal and will remain until this weekend. Latest HREF indicates scattered showers and thunderstorms may track across KSAV between 16-20Z, highlighted with a PROB30. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with the chance of breezy northeasterly winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible) on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Otherwise, it will be fairly dry until Friday when rain chances increase again. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday evening: A backdoor cold front will push across the marine zones this morning. In the wake of the front, winds across the nearshore and outer waters will turn from the east- northeast and strengthen into the 20s, with gusts in the upper 20s to near 30 kts. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore SC/GA waters along with the outer GA waters. Across the Charleston Harbor, gusts should settle into the low 20 kts, remaining just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Cold air damming pattern should linger through Thursday, supporting gusty winds. Waves heights will build through today, peaking tonight between 5 to 7 ft. Six foot seas may linger over portions of the waters through Thursday. Small Craft Conditions should end Thursday evening. More favorable marine conditions are expected on Friday into Saturday as winds settle to around 10 kt and seas lower to 2 to 3 ft on Saturday. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest forecast before heading offshore. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for GAZ217-219-239-241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ360. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ362. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Friday for AMZ364-384. && $$ |
| #1278882 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 214 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat. && .DISCUSSION... As of 214 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity Today-Thursday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week an upper ridge builds back into the region. Next chance for rain Fri-Sat. Early morning weather analysis shows a strong upper level ridge over the eastern half of the United States with its axis stretching into far northern Canada. With ridge stretching into far northern Canada this allows the 1026mb surface high to move over New England. The high pressure is in optimal position to allow winds to decouple inland and skies to remain clear across the area. The decoupled winds and clear skies is allowing radiational cooling to occur and let temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s inland. However, along the coast temperatures continue to remain in the low 70s as winds continue to blow off the warm waters. Through sunrise, expect temps to drop into the low to middle 50s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Through the day high pressure will continue to push eastward eventually moving offshore. This will allow for a favorable early fall like day across the area. Skies are likely to remain mostly clear and temperatures will likely struggle to reach 80 in some areas. Highs for the day are likely to be in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid 70s along the coast. By tonight, temperatures will be similar as the previous night with lows in the middle to upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast. As the week progresses the high pressure off the New England coast will eventually push SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. This will likely cause high temps to stay mostly in the low- mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). However, dew points are forecasted to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday. By the end of the week the upper ridge is progged to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians. This will likely lead to above average temps to return to the forecast area with highs in the upper 80s and possibly lower 90s. In addition, rain chances look meager through much of the week. The best days for rain chances look to be Friday and Saturday as a frontal passage approaches the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions continue through the 06z taf period. Clear skies continue through the morning. Winds have became light and variable inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are forecasted as high pressure dominated todays weather pattern. Skies are forecasted to remain mostly clear with winds continue to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light and variable again tonight. Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR conditions given high pressure over the region. && .MARINE... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - CAA continues tonight with enhanced N-NE winds and Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the northern coastal waters and tidal rivers. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A large (~1025mb) area of high pressure was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes this evening. Winds were generally N/NE 15-20 kt with gusts up to around 25 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay were 2-4 ft with seas 3-5 ft. Winds have diminished below 15-20 kt across the upper rivers. As such, have canceled SCAs there. Elsewhere, winds are expected to gradually become NE overnight as much drier air overspreads the the waters. A gradual decrease in speed expected late tonight, especially toward sunrise, with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound around sunrise. However, will let the overnight shift make the call on ending these headlines early. Seas will be slower to fall off than the winds overnight with 3-6 ft seas nearshore (highest across the southern coastal waters) and 4-7 ft in the 20-60nm zones likely. Elevated seas linger into the daylight hours of Tuesday across the southern coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. High pressure then builds north of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening with improving marine conditions expected for the remainder of the week and likely into the weekend as well. Given the elevated onshore flow and nearshore waves, there is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches and a high risk rip current risk for the southern beaches on Tuesday. All beaches have a Moderate Risk on Wednesday as swell energy persists. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1278881 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 157 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms focus mainly across interior South Florida today with a few extending towards the coasts. Frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any storms. - High temperatures will generally rise into the low to mid 90s across South FL each day, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. && .UPDATE... Issued at 102 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Convection has been slow to get going today with mid and upper level dry air across the area as shown on recent ACARS soundings. Cumulus buildup is being seen on visible satellite so expect convection to initiate over the coming hours, with the main focus being over interior and SW FL, however the western suburbs of the east coast metro may see some storms over the next couple hours before the sea-breeze pushes further inland. Overall the forecast today remains on track, with little changes made from the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Mid-level ridging will remain draped over the peninsula to begin the week, keeping anomalously strong 500 mb heights and hot temperatures across most of the Deep South. The main high pressure center will be located right over the southern Appalachian mountains, with H5 heights climbing to a near record 597 to 600 dam for this time of year. Fortunately for us in South Florida, H5 heights will only be around 592 to 593 dam, only slightly above average. This will translate to another hot day across South Florida, with maximum temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s areawide for Monday and Tuesday. Widespread moderate HeatRisk will once again be likely across all urban areas, affecting sensitive individuals without proper cooling and hydration. Heat indices are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, with only about a 30% chance of exceeding heat indices greater than 105 F. With high pressure overhead, winds will be light and variable through most of the morning. Coastal sea breezes will then begin creeping inland through the early afternoon. Light to calm winds and clear skies overnight should allow for efficient nighttime cooling, so some guidance is hinting at the development of isolated to patchy fog during the early morning hours for portions of interior South Florida. Wet antecedent conditions should allow for some saturation to occur as temps drop into the low 70s. However, fog is not expected to be impactful and there is very low confidence for visibility dropping below 5 miles. The recent 00z MFL sounding and current SPC mesoanalysis data indicates that South Florida still remains under a pretty moist airmass, with PWATs between 2 and 2.3 inches. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are once again expected to develop along sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions through the afternoon. There is a signal for some increased concentrations of Saharan approaching the region on Monday, but most of it should stay to the south of the Florida Straits and over the Caribbean. Nevertheless, RAP model soundings are hinting at some increased mid-level dry air compared to the last few days, which may slightly hinder storm development during the afternoon. Don`t expect much of a difference in storm activity this afternoon compared to yesterday, but PoPs are slightly lower, between 50% and 60%. Most activity should focus along interior South Florida, closer to the Gulf sea breeze. Frequent lighting, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds will be the main threats. If a storm were to get strong enough, some of this mid-level dry air may contribute to a few 50 to 60 mph downbursts winds, as DCAPE will be near 1000 J/kg. But, confidence for this will be low, with thunderstorm gusts between 30 to 40 mph being more likely. The forecast for Tuesday will be quite similar, with scattered storms across South Florida through the afternoon. One notable change that will begin on Tuesday is that pressure gradients along the Atlantic coast will tighten due to strengthening surface high pressure over New England. This will result in some slightly breezier easterlies on Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, most storm activity will focus along interior and southwest Florida, closer to the Gulf breeze. HREF ensemble guidance shows that a few hot spots of 2 to 3 inches of rain may occur across portions of mainland Monroe, Collier, and Hendry counties. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1255 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A stout ridge will set up across the central US and the Eastern Seaboard towards the middle of this week. This will set up a Rex Block pattern with an upper-level low enhancing offshore in the western Atlantic and advecting southwestwards underneath the ridge towards the Florida Peninsula. With enhanced jet stream dynamics along the eastern side of the ridge, there is increasing confidence that this will cause the strengthening low pressure to eventually become cut-off by Thursday and Friday as it advects across Florida. The pressure gradient will strengthen quickly on Wednesday as the low approaches, with a breezier NE flow expected versus the lighter flow we have been experiencing lately. Forcing for ascent will increase via positive vorticity advection from the low between Wednesday and Friday, and with deep moisture (PWATs 1.7-2.0+ inches each day) remaining over the area through this time frame we can expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Therefore, PoPs will be 70-80+% daily for the mid-to-late week period. The cut-off low is expected to be a cold core low, which could get interesting in terms of a severe threat as this typically results in steeper lapse rates. However, dry air wrapping into the system could lead to some capping and result in a more inhibitive profile for deeper convection. This will be something to monitor over the next several days. Rain chances will continue to remain elevated for next weekend as well due to ongoing deep moisture presence. As the upper low departs into the Gulf later on Friday and into next weekend, low level flow will flip to east-southeasterly and likely shift the highest rain chances towards the interior and closer to the Gulf coast but rain chances will still be high across the entire region. Overall, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the period. As exact details become more clear, QPF confidence will increase which will allow for better assessment of any flooding potential. Other than that, no major hazards are currently expected other than the usual frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, and lower visibilities associated with stronger thunderstorm activity. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s across SW Florida to the mid to upper 70s along the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR is expected to prevail for most of the period. VCSH/SHRA expected to develop after 13-14Z today with VCTS later this afternoon after 18-20Z. KAPF will see the most activity due to winds being out of the E/ENE, which will put KAPF at highest risk for on site restrictions. The winds at KAPF will also shift out of the west after about 18Z. With a disturbance approaching for later this week, SHRA/TS development overnight looks likely, especially across the east coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 With high pressure overhead, light and variable winds will prevail across most waters through the beginning of the week. Seas will generally remain below 3 feet through Tuesday across all marine areas, but isolated to scattered shower and storms may bring locally gusty winds and hazardous boating conditions. The weather pattern begins to change in the middle of the week, with increasing northeasterly winds areawide. This will allow for seas to climb into 5 to 8 ft range off the coast of Palm Beach, and 3 to 4 feet elsewhere on Wednesday. With winds also climbing into the 20 to 23 kt range, Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Chances for showers and storms will also increase areawide through the end of the week as a storm system looks to cross the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 89 77 / 40 50 80 60 West Kendall 90 78 89 76 / 40 40 80 50 Opa-Locka 90 78 89 77 / 40 50 80 60 Homestead 91 78 90 76 / 40 40 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 88 79 / 40 50 80 70 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 88 79 / 50 50 80 70 Pembroke Pines 90 79 89 77 / 40 50 80 60 West Palm Beach 91 78 89 78 / 50 60 80 60 Boca Raton 89 79 88 77 / 50 60 80 70 Naples 92 76 91 74 / 60 20 90 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278880 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 153 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with below normal temperatures through Tuesday night. - Above normal temps return Wed through the end of the week with high temps mainly in the 70s to near 80. A few showers possible sometime late Thu into early Fri...But dry weather dominates. - Possible return for unsettled weather towards the back half of the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with below normal temperatures through Tuesday night. A large high pressure arrives from the west tonight. Gusty winds subside around sunset, then become light and variable late this evening. Expecting decent radiational cooling conditions, leading to low temperatures about 5-10 degrees below normal. The cooler conditions continue into Tuesday night with light E to SE winds. This high pressure should be over the North Atlantic Tuesday night, shifting winds more from the S to SW. KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures return midweek and last through the end of the week. Dry weather dominates, though a few showers are possible sometime in the late Thursday-early Friday timeframe. High pressure continues to dominate this week`s pattern, keeping generally dry conditions in place for southern New England. A strong upper level ridge set up across the southeast US will build partly into the northeastern US midweek before flattening out on its northern tier Thursday into Friday. A trough remains well to our north in Canada, and between these two large features, surface high pressure remains affixed over much of the northern and northeastern US. With a surge in warmer mid level air coming in from the west during this period, more above-normal temperatures make a return across southern New England; highs climb back up into the 70s and may creep into the low 80s. High pressure loosens its grip over the region slightly late Thursday into Friday as a shortwave tracks toward the region. NAEFS guidance signaled a return of more anomalous moisture with the westerly flow, indicating PWATs about a standard deviation or two above normal for this time of year. Ahead of any possible showers with the incoming shortwave/frontal system, it may feel a bit more humid on Thursday. Guidance currently favors showers moving through the region late Thursday into Friday morning, though timing may fluctuate slightly between now and then. Dry conditions follow as drier air aloft is advected in, though the higher than normal temperatures may remain Friday afternoon before cooler temperatures take hold for Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Possible return for unsettled weather towards the back half of the upcoming weekend. The ridge to our south appears to break down a bit going into the weekend, which may introduce increased chances for more unsettled conditions. Latest ensemble guidance hints at the second half of the weekend as the likely timeframe with strong low pressure tracking towards the region from the Plains and Great Lakes. Given how far out this event is, much will likely change over future updates. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12Z...High confidence. VFR. Light N/NNE winds. Occasional gusts to 18 kts possible for Cape terminals through 08Z (HYA/ACK). Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. NNE winds this morning shifting to the NE at 5-10 kts. Interior terminals shift likely shift to the S/SSE early afternoon while coastal terminals shift to E/ESE in the afternoon then shift to the S/SSE 00-03Z. Tuesday night...High confidence. VFR. Winds becoming light S to SW. Patchy fog possible in valleys. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NNE winds shift to NE this morning then shift E/ESE 16-18Z at 5-10 kts. Winds shift toward the SSE/S around 00Z becoming S/SSW by 03Z. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High pressure moves over the waters late Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night. Gusty NW to N winds diminish towards sunset tonight. Expecting relatively light winds and seas through Tuesday night. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will end later this afternoon. The existing headlines may be canceled early. Will continue to monitor through this afternoon. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1278879 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 147 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Rain and lightning storms remain possible through this evening, pushing west with the sea breeze. Occasional to frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds are possible. - Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - Heightened rain chances are focused along the coast Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Now-Tonight...A healthy field of cumulus clouds is present across east central Florida this afternoon, now highlighting the developing east coast sea breeze near I-95. Showers are forming near and west of the breeze, in an environment characterized by 2.2"+ PW (see 15z XMR sounding), 2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE, weak lapse rates, and warm H5 temperatures. Like yesterday, not every location will see rain or storms this afternoon. However, the spots that do may experience torrential downpours, occasional to frequent lightning, and gusty winds. While initial convection will be focused closer to the coast through 3 PM or so, a transition of rain/storms inland is expected as both the sea breeze and 500mb flow shifts more onshore. CAMs and HREF alike push most of the activity west of the area by 8- 9 PM as it all begins to dissipate past sunset. Tonight, temperatures will settle into the 70s again but stay a few degrees warmer at the coast. This marks the beginning of deepening onshore flow and the influence of an expanding surface ridge to our north. Showers and isolated storms are supported in both short and medium-range guidance, and some of this activity could drift onshore after midnight (closer to daybreak Tuesday). Tuesday-Thursday...Some showers and a few storms over the local Atlantic may be moving onshore at the immediate coast Tuesday morning. East-northeasterly winds become established areawide, increasing a bit through the day, especially along the coast. This is in response to a gradually tightening pressure gradient around the southern periphery of a ridge, centered over New England. A 10- 15 mph breeze Tuesday becomes 15-20+ on Wednesday with peak gusts around 25-30 mph at times. Beach and boating conditions will become poor to hazardous, especially on Wednesday. As always, heed lifeguard advice, beach flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised as conditions worsen mid week. Lower rain chances continue to be advertised on Wednesday as a batch of drier air moves across north-central Florida. Despite model soundings highlighting a stout dry layer between 500-700mb, the low levels may remain moist enough to support shallow marine-layer showers that repeatedly push toward the coast. Lower chances for lightning (generally less than 30-40%) are forecast Wednesday. High PW values return Thursday afternoon and beyond, coincident with an upper low passing overhead. With this additional dynamic support, rain chances return to 60% and higher Thursday. Guidance is also highlighting some notable DCAPE values and H5 temps between -8C and - 10C, so the potential for a few stronger storms and locally heavy rainfall will be monitored. Friday-Sunday (previous)...The mid to upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. gradually breaks down late week as troughing aloft continues to push west of Florida and into the Gulf. Southwest to south flow behind the trough aloft will advect a column of deeper moisture over central Florida. This looks to support continued rain chances areawide into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values mostly in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light to nearly calm winds over the local waters and seas 1-2 ft maintain favorable boating conditions this afternoon and evening. Deep moisture and a shift to increasingly east-northeast flow will support a growing chance for overnight showers and a few storms, continuing into Tuesday. Deteriorating conditions are forecast from Tuesday evening onward as high pressure strengthens north of the waters. In response, northeasterly winds freshen, worsening boating conditions from north to south late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained winds 20-25 kt with peak gusts around 30 kt are forecast, so Small Craft Advisories will be needed soon. Seas peak around 6-8 ft Wednesday into early Thursday. Rain chances will persist over the waters, perhaps lowering a bit Wednesday as some drier air moves overhead. However, moisture surges back in Thursday and Friday, supporting continued rain/storm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Mostly dry through the overnight hours, though onshore-moving showers are forecast to move into coastal areas by sunrise. Expect these showers to persist through much of the period, despite perhaps a short window in the afternoon. However, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve onshore-moving convection, have included VCSH through the end of the TAF period along the coast. VCSH reaches interior locations by mid-morning (15Z). A few TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, though primarily SH is forecast, and could lead to brief reductions in CIGs/VIS. SH tapers off by 23Z inland, before additional showers persist progressively farther into the interior after 6Z. E/ENE flow through the TAF period, increasing to 10-12 kts through the day. Winds look to remain elevated overnight, especially along the coast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 78 88 76 / 50 40 40 10 MCO 91 76 89 74 / 60 20 30 0 MLB 89 79 88 77 / 50 70 70 30 VRB 89 77 88 75 / 50 70 70 50 LEE 91 76 89 73 / 60 10 10 0 SFB 90 76 88 74 / 50 30 40 0 ORL 90 77 88 75 / 60 20 40 0 FPR 89 77 88 75 / 60 60 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-570. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-572. && $$ |
| #1278878 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 An upper ridge over the region retreats from the area late this week and into Saturday as an upper low/trof forms over the far western Atlantic and advances into the northeast Gulf. A surface ridge builds into the southeastern states through midweek, setting up an easterly surface flow which ushers drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze, but otherwise subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress convective development. The easterly surface flow with the building surface ridge strengthens mainly over the marine area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and isolated to scattered convection develops in response over the marine area which may affect mainly coastal portions of Alabama. Dry conditions otherwise prevail through Friday, then slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast on Saturday as the upper low progresses into the northeastern Gulf along with a modest surface reflection trof and improving deep layer moisture. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as the upper low looks to slowly progress a bit further across the Gulf along with deep layer moisture continuing to increase. A low risk of rip currents on Tuesday is expected to quickly increase to a High Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk follows for Friday. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor surf heights which are expected to increase to 4-5 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Should these increase further, then a High Surf Advisory would likely become necessary for these days. Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Tuesday, but otherwise a combination of somewhat cooler daytime highs and/or lower surface dewpoints will limit heat index values. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR flight category will prevail across the region through the day today and tonight. An isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out near the coast during the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north less than 5 knots, becoming easterly during the day around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes established today, becoming strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week. 1 foot seas today increase quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 75 91 71 / 10 10 10 0 Pensacola 93 77 91 73 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 92 77 91 73 / 20 10 0 0 Evergreen 97 73 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 98 73 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 97 74 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 94 73 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278877 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1247 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect on Tuesday for Southern Hidalgo County as well as the inland and coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties, where heat indices are expected to reach 108-111 F, or briefly higher, generally within the hours of 12 PM to 6 PM. - Near record-breaking heat and major to extreme risks of heat related illnesses (levels 3/4 and 4/4) continue into Wednesday, improving to a mainly moderate risk (level 2/4) by Thursday though temperatures remain above average. - Fire weather concerns continue, most concerning Tuesday afternoon. - Mostly dry conditions are expected through midweek, followed by a region-wide low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain Thursday into Friday and a low (10-15%) chance over the weekend before increasing just a bit early next week. - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A building high pressure aloft over the eastern US and a tightened pressure gradient maintain dry conditions through Tuesday as well as near-record breaking triple digit temperatures across most inland areas and breezy conditions, with southeasterly winds gusting to 25-35 mph, turning easterly and weakening a bit on Wednesday. The combination of well-above average temperatures combining with onshore, moist flow has led to the issuance of a SPS for Tuesday and an additional SPS is possible on Wednesday. Risks of heat-related illnesses continue ranging from extreme across portions of the RGV and Rio Grande Plains to mostly major elsewhere through midweek as well. Additionally, although the latest forecast conditions are expected to fall just shy of Fire Danger Statement criteria, the combination of breezy southeasterly winds coinciding with minimizing afternoon relative humidity values brings the concern of fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Outdoor burning is not recommended and high caution is urged when handling flames. As always, you can visit weather.gov/bro for the latest forecast and information regarding heat and fire safety. Towards the later part of the week, a surge of high pressure elongating across the eastern CONUS and the Gulf advects deep Gulf moisture to deep south Texas via easterly to northeasterly winds, increasing PWAT values on Wednesday to as much as 2.0-2.4+ in. on Thursday, thus elevating chances of rain along the daytime seabreeze boundary from a low (15-20%) chance across the southern portions of the RGV on Wednesday afternoon to a mostly region-wide low to medium (20-40%) chance on Thursday and Friday, with the best chances along/east US-281. Given such high moisture content, there is a risk for localized flooding concerns on Thursday and possibly Friday, especially within any slow-moving, or training, of convection. Following, much drier air funnels into the region, leaving only a low (10-15%) chance of rain each afternoon over the weekend, though troughing arriving over Texas could lead to more nearly widespread low (15-30%) rain chances to begin next week. Although temperatures are expected to remain above average, easterly to northeasterly winds and increased cloud cover should help highs to cool off to the upper 90s to lower 100s as well as improve heat risks to mostly moderate by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds for the remainder of the overnight hours will become breezy on Tuesday with higher gusts before diminishing around sunset. Limited cloud cover will also occur with rain-free skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds become light to gentle, occasionally moderate, by Tuesday night and transition to easterly, northeasterly at times, by Wednesday. Sight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas build to moderate (3-5 ft) Thursday through Saturday and southeasterly winds return Sunday. Chances of rain build throughout Wednesday to a medium to likely (40-80%) on Thursday and a low to medium (30-60%) chance on Friday. Chances minimize over the weekend before increasing again into the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 80 97 80 / 0 0 10 30 HARLINGEN 102 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 104 80 103 80 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 103 78 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 89 81 / 0 0 10 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 95 78 / 0 0 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1278874 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 123 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected today and Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching 100-108 degrees, especially over the Florida counties. - Small craft advisories are likely Tuesday night through Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents. && .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No major changes to tonight`s forecast were required. A backdoor front is steadily dropping southward into the Wiregrass region this evening. This boundary is accompanied by a thin band of mid- level clouds and sub 70s dew points. As a result, we are looking at widespread low 70s for min temperatures by tomorrow morning and a preview of even cooler readings the following two nights as a drier airmass settles in further. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging over the Southeast U.S. will continue to be the major influencer of our weather as the ridge strengthens for the next couple of days. The strong ridge will keep temperatures in the 90s, and bring in light northeast flow. This will reduce our atmospheric moisture, limiting PWATs to around 1.5" inland. The pro/con in this scenario is that: Con - it will still be hot. Pro - it will be less humid. The chances for rain will be minimal over land, as the ridge should keep shower/thunderstorm chances over the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure extending down the Apalachians will lead a "backdoor cold front" from our northeast that will increase our winds. Breezy conditions could begin as soon as Tuesday afternoon, and continue through Thursday until upper level the ridge retreats westward due to an inverted trough moving north- northwestward into the Gulf. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s this afternoon and mid-90s along the immediate coast. with heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees. Expect lows tonight to be in the low-mid 70s. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s, with max heat indices around 100-105 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 70s with upper 60s Wednesday night into Thursday morning. For the rest of today, there may be some showers/thunderstorms along the Forgotten Coast with PoPs ranging round 20-40% with better chances in the SE Big Bend. There`s little to no chance for showers/thunderstorms for the remainder of the Short Term, except for localized areas along the coast, mainly in the SE Big Bend on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 An inverted trough will move into the Gulf on Thursday, pushing the upper level ridge back westward. This will shift our winds back to southerly and increase our PWATs back to around 2 inches by the weekend. Temperatures will be not as hot in the upper 80s to low 90s however, dew points will increase back into the 70s. Afternoon PoPs will return to 30-40%, with higher chances by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog is possible late in the night near VLD with MVFR vsbys possible. Otherwise, the only other impact in the TAF period will be gusty easterly winds late morning through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Beginning Tuesday, surface ridging taking place along the Appalachians Mountains that will extend south and into the Northern Gulf will create a pressure gradient increasing our marine winds. This will turn our current light northwesterly flow to a stronger easterly wind beginning, at earliest, Tuesday night through Thursday. This will result in winds reaching the threshold needed of 20 kts for a small craft advisory during this time. An upper level low will kick out this pattern, delivering a more moist airmass which will increase rain chances over the Gulf into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 High pressure overhead will continue our warm temperatures and generally dry conditions. Transport winds will become easterly on Tuesday with speeds of 10-15 mph and increase to 15-20 mph for Wednesday. As drier air will be filtering in, MinRH values will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s% for Tuesday and Wednesday. As somewhat breezy conditions build this week, dispersion values will increase to high for the Florida and Alabama Wiregrass regions, and the ANF near and along I-10. Healthy dispersions are expected to continue for Wednesday, with pockets of high dispersions throughout all the districts. Temperatures will be in the 90s with heat indices ranging from 100-107 through Tuesday. When the drier air filters in, heat indices will be lower, as well as windier conditions (previously mentioned). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 No flooding concerns over the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 73 90 70 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 94 75 91 72 / 20 10 0 0 Dothan 94 72 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 95 71 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 93 71 91 69 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 92 74 90 72 / 50 0 0 0 Apalachicola 90 77 90 74 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1278873 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas today, then lowering to a moderate to major risk the rest of the week. - Very low rain chances today, then increasing to a medium to high chance by Thursday. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected today. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Elevated Fire Weather conditions remain possible through Wednesday, mainly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 The heat continues to be a concern, but heat indices are expected to be generally less than 110 today. This is due to drier conditions with slightly lower dewpoints/RH values. A few locations may exceed 110 briefly. We may reach Heat Advisory criteria Wednesday, but it will be borderline. Heat Advisory conditions are less likely through the remainder of the week and into the weekend due to increasing rain chances/cooler temperatures. This will lead to the major to extreme risk of heat related impacts today to lower to a moderate to major risk the rest of the week. Slightly drier conditions in the mid levels and PWATs generally less than 2 inches today will keep rain chances low to very low across most of S TX. Although a rogue shower along the sea breeze can not be ruled out. Models have consistently shown a surge of deeper moisture advecting across S TX beginning Wednesday with increasing rain chances through Thursday. PWATs are progged to increase to as much as 2.4 inches, which will be conducive for locally heavy rain creating localized flooding problems, especially if the storms are slow moving. Highest rain chances Thursday are expected across the eastern half of S TX with PoPs from 35-60% and <35% closer to the Rio Grande. Rain chances begin to drop off Friday to a 20-35% chance then 5-20% over the weekend as mid level ridging takes hold. Sufficient moisture should remain in place early next week for a 10-20% chance of showers and storms along the daily sea breeze. Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals over South Texas, however we`re already seeing streaks of MVFR ceilings over the inland Coastal Plains to Brush Country, near ALI. We`ll carry TEMPOs for each site for occasional MVFR ceilings. Lighter winds over VCT may induce MVFR vsby as well. VFR conditions prevail by 15Z with southeasterly winds increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots midday through the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 A fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles once again this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow is expected through the week and into the weekend. Very low rain chances expected today. Rain chances increase to medium on Wednesday and high chances by Thursday. Rain chances begin to decrease Friday with low to very low rain chances this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Minimum relative humidity is expected to be around 20-30% this afternoon across the Brush Country. Thus, Elevated Fire Weather concerns are expected and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country this afternoon. The ERC remains at the 75-90% percentile, and Elevated Fire Weather conditions will be possible at times through the period. The chance of wetting rains will be very low today, then increasing rain chances expected beginning Wednesday with the highest chance expected Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 96 79 / 0 0 10 20 Victoria 101 77 100 77 / 10 0 30 20 Laredo 105 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 75 100 76 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 93 81 94 81 / 10 10 20 40 Cotulla 104 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 10 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278872 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1208 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Isolated pop up showers and storms Tuesday afternoon, becoming more prevalent on Wednesday. - Drier air from a backdoor front brings more seasonably warm conditions and more comfortable humidity to the area on Thursday and Friday which will also drop rain chances. Rain chances return over the weekend, however. - Stronger easterly winds may result in small craft advisory conditions for the latter half of the week in the coastal waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging dominates the pattern for forecast Tuesday, which will result in a slightly drier forecast. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm and moist air into the region. Some isolated showers are possible during peak daytime heating, but this will be very sparse coverage. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values in the 103-108 degree range so it will still be warm for this time of year. Be sure to stay hydrated if spending time outdoors and take frequent breaks. Wednesday, a backdoor cool front will progress through the area. This front will enhance rain chances mainly for marine areas, but as we go toward the midday through the evening hours, some scattered storms will popup over land along the boundary. There are still some uncertainties in how far inland the system will progress northward, but at least the immediate coastal areas should see increased precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon/evening. These storms are not expected to be severe, but gusty winds (40-50mph) and lightning will be expected. Thursday, conditions will be a lot drier with little to no precipitation expected. Temperatures should also be cooler as we get our first glimpse of fall. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s, which should feel really nice considering the above average temperatures lately. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The disturbance that was over the Atlantic Thursday should be in the northeast Gulf off the Florida west coast north or northwest of Tampa by Friday evening, with the upper ridge over northeast Texas. Some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF operational solutions as to how far westward this feature makes it before heading northward and eventually northeastward. The ECMWF operational solution from 14/12z brings it as far west as Fort Walton Beach on Saturday, then drifts it slowly northward into Georgia by Monday night. The 14/18z GFS brings it to the Alabama- Mississippi border Sunday morning and leaves it in that general vicinity until the middle of next week. In either case, the local area should be on the "drier" side of the upper circulation. It does appear that the NBM PoP numbers for Saturday and Sunday have come down a bit from the previous run and are somewhat more in line with the Monday daytime ECMWF/GFS operational PoP numbers (30-50%). Current guidance does continue to show somewhat lower dew points by the weekend, at least north of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. That should allow some of the normally cooler areas to dip into the upper 60s at least once over the weekend, but areas south of the corridors may not notice much difference in overnight lows. Highs may still get into the 90 to 95 range over the weekend in much of the area, but probably a few degrees short of today. Less cloud cover would fit with the operational PoPs and slightly higher temperatures. Heat index values are expected to remain below advisory criteria over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. PROB30 group is in effect for GPT for tomorrow afternoon for isolated showers/storms that could drop conditions to MVFR briefly. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A broad surface high centered over the area will keep benign conditions in place across the waters through Tuesday with light and variable winds of less than 5 knots and seas of less than 2 feet expected. A few showers or storms will pop up in the morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves possible as well as lightning and waterspouts especially on Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient will begin tightening Wednesday morning behind a backdoor front. This will cause easterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts upwards of 30 knots midday Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Wednesday night into Thursday night. Seas will respond to these higher winds and increase to 8 to 10 feet in the outer waters. These unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate late Friday and into Saturday. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1278871 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures a bit for tonight and ended Small Craft Advisories across the tidal rivers (excluding the Lower James River). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity through Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week as an upper ridge builds back into the region. && .DISCUSSION... As of 740 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures and significantly lower humidity through Wednesday. Temperatures warm back above normal late in the week as an upper ridge builds back into the region. The latest surface analysis depicted a large (~1025mb) area of high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. The high will gradually spread eastward overnight. Temperatures as of 730 PM ranged from the lower 70s N to the upper 70s S with dew points in the 50s across the northern two thirds of the FA and 60s across far S VA/NE NC. As the high continues to build in overnight, winds will start to diminish on land and skies will remain mostly clear. With light winds and mostly clear skies, this will be a favorable environment for radiational cooling. Dew points will drop into the 50s for most of the forecast area, so lows will likely be able to drop in the mid to upper 50s for most locations. Northern portions of the FA could even see lower 50s with localized upper 40s not out of the question in Louisa County. Near the coast, temperatures will likely remain in the mid 60s. Dew points are forecast to remain very comfortable through at least Thursday as strong sfc high pressure (~1030 mb), sets up from off the New England coast SW into the Carolina coastal plain through midweek. Highs will stay mostly in the low-mid 80s through Wed with lows in the 50s to lower 60s (locally warmer at the immediate coast). The upper level ridge is forecast to expand E-NE to the TN Valley and central Appalachians Thu-Fri. This will allow temperatures to climb back to above normal for mid- September, with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s. Dry weather likely persists through Saturday. However, cannot rule out a few isolated showers or storms across the northern portions of the FA on Friday with a cold front (15-20% PoPs). && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions continue through the 06z taf period. Clear skies continue through the morning. Winds have became light and variable inland. While along the coast winds continue to remain out of the NE around 10kt. Throughout the day VFR conditions are forecasted as high pressure dominated todays weather pattern. Skies are forecasted to remain mostly clear with winds continue to remain out of the NE between 5-10 kt before becoming light and variable again tonight. Outlook: Dry weather continues through Sat with generally VFR conditions given high pressure over the region. && .MARINE... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - CAA continues tonight with enhanced N-NE winds and Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the northern coastal waters and tidal rivers. - Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A large (~1025mb) area of high pressure was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes this evening. Winds were generally N/NE 15-20 kt with gusts up to around 25 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay were 2-4 ft with seas 3-5 ft. Winds have diminished below 15-20 kt across the upper rivers. As such, have canceled SCAs there. Elsewhere, winds are expected to gradually become NE overnight as much drier air overspreads the the waters. A gradual decrease in speed expected late tonight, especially toward sunrise, with the latest guidance showing winds falling below SCA thresholds in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound around sunrise. However, will let the overnight shift make the call on ending these headlines early. Seas will be slower to fall off than the winds overnight with 3-6 ft seas nearshore (highest across the southern coastal waters) and 4-7 ft in the 20-60nm zones likely. Elevated seas linger into the daylight hours of Tuesday across the southern coastal waters S of Cape Charles Light. High pressure then builds north of the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening with improving marine conditions expected for the remainder of the week and likely into the weekend as well. Given the elevated onshore flow and nearshore waves, there is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches and a high risk rip current risk for the southern beaches on Tuesday. All beaches have a Moderate Risk on Wednesday as swell energy persists. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1278870 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1141 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 An upper ridge over the region retreats from the area late this week and into Saturday as an upper low/trof forms over the far western Atlantic and advances into the northeast Gulf. A surface ridge builds into the southeastern states through midweek, setting up an easterly surface flow which ushers drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze, but otherwise subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress convective development. The easterly surface flow with the building surface ridge strengthens mainly over the marine area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and isolated to scattered convection develops in response over the marine area which may affect mainly coastal portions of Alabama. Dry conditions otherwise prevail through Friday, then slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast on Saturday as the upper low progresses into the northeastern Gulf along with a modest surface reflection trof and improving deep layer moisture. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as the upper low looks to slowly progress a bit further across the Gulf along with deep layer moisture continuing to increase. A low risk of rip currents on Tuesday is expected to quickly increase to a High Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk follows for Friday. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor surf heights which are expected to increase to 4-5 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Should these increase further, then a High Surf Advisory would likely become necessary for these days. Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Tuesday, but otherwise a combination of somewhat cooler daytime highs and/or lower surface dewpoints will limit heat index values. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon (10-20% chance), mainly near the coast. Ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR or briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity. Light and variable winds tonight will become northeasterly in the morning, turning generally southeasterly during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots with locally higher gusts along the coast. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A light diurnal flow pattern continues through tonight, becoming a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow on Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow will develop Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday night through mid week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 94 75 91 / 0 20 10 10 Pensacola 77 93 77 91 / 0 10 10 0 Destin 77 92 77 91 / 0 10 10 0 Evergreen 72 97 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 97 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 72 94 74 90 / 0 20 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1278869 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs. Previous update... A mostly dry cold front will move through the area tonight, and may see isolated to widely scattered showers/t-storms this evening, mainly across the Cape Fear area and adjacent waters. There`s not much in the way of moisture for the front to work with limiting coverage. Thus, no major changes were made with the afternoon forecast package. Did remove initial key message regarding today`s unseasonable heat to focus on the front and upcoming cooler/drier weather. The aviation section was also updated for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday. A cold front will move southward across the forecast area tonight and this will bring an end to this most recent round of heat and humidity. High pressure will be centered across New England by Tuesday morning and the ridge axis will extend far south encompassing the Carolinas. This feature will bring more seasonable temperatures and lower the humidity over the next few days. Some of the cooler spots may drop into the upper 50s Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with decent radiational cooling. The surface ridge will gradually weaken across the area Wednesday through Thursday with temperatures increasing again by Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR CIGs at the coastal terminals will gradually dissipate prior to 08Z as drier air builds behind a cold front. VFR thereafter. Steady gradient will produce 10-15 knot NE winds today, gusting to 20 knots at times at the coast. Extended Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through Thursday in a drier and cooler airmass. May see an uptick in SHRA/TSRA by Friday and Saturday, but confidence is limited at this time with any potential restrictions. && .MARINE... Tonight through Saturday...A NEly surge will build southward across the waters tonight in the wake of a cold front. This will result in marginal Small Craft conditions that will gradually expand across the Long Bay coastal waters. Plan on expanding the advisory for these areas as a result. The NEly fetch will persist into Wednesday as the surface ridge axis resides across the Carolinas. While this fetch continues the strongest portion of it will remain farther offshore Wednesday. A trough will approach from the east but will keep the NEly fetch pinched across the waters Thursday before we see a better drop in wind speeds Friday and Saturday. Ultimately, the persistent NEly fetch will prevent any rapid improvement in the sea state until later in the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256. && $$ |
| #1278868 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 15.Sep.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1124 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect through early Tuesday evening for much of the area. - Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the week, mainly along the coast. Rain likely along the coast Thursday. - High temperatures will generally persist in the mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A broad upper low continues to spin over the Tennessee Valley bringing generally persistent weather to our area, with hot and humid conditions continuing through the week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early Tuesday evening. Heat indices up to 109F are possible during the daytime hours. Additional diurnal convection looks to develop during Tuesday morning and will track eastwards through the afternoon. Storms again will be isolated and look to be confined to the coast. Any storms late-morning should mostly stay south of the I-10 corridor, tapering off through the afternoon. After a quiet night, Wednesday will see similar conditions overall, however the timing of more widespread convection along the coast looks to return to the afternoon time frame with a few stray storms potentially moving into northern portions of the forecast area. In any case, these will not amount to much. The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to shift eastward into Thursday. A surge of tropical moisture will accompany this with GFS PWATs in particular approaching an impressive 2.5". The latter would bring more favorable precipitation/convective parameters, however the former will make the cap much stronger and would inhibit storm development. The best precipitation chances will occur in the morning along the coast before the greatest capping develops during the afternoon/early evening hours and the aforementioned moisture surge moves west of our area. The ridge will become elongated from north to south over central Texas Friday into the weekend and become squeezed between a trough to the west and a closed low to the east. This should all yield minimal PoPs, although the heat and humidity will continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Diurnal pattern continues as cloud decks once again lower to around 1500-2000ft overnight. These could briefly fill in to produce MVFR CIGS early Tuesday morning, mainly north of I-10. Isolated patchy fog will also be possible in spots during the early morning, mainly in fog prone locations like KCXO. CIGs/Fog should clear around or by the late morning hours. Showers/storms are also expected to develop over the coast early Tuesday morning, shifting inland during the afternoon. Any convection that does develop should tapper off into Tuesday evening. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light SE onshore winds will continue in the near-term, peaking near 15 kts later tonight. Winds will back to a more due easterly direction on Wednesday and increase to 20 kts from east to west on Thursday, before slightly diminishing on Friday. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through Wednesday, increasing to 4 to 6 feet on Thursday due to the aforementioned wind increase. These will subside into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 95 78 94 / 0 20 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 92 83 92 / 0 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335-338. GM...None. && $$ |
