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| #1238344 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:12 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 803 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...Now through Wednesday... For the current issuance, flooding issues over most of our southern tier of counties along with a High Risk of Rip Currents continue to be the biggest issue, with a Heat Advisory possible in the coming week. First things first, an upper low located southwest of KAQQ at noontime is moving west over the northern Gulf on the south side of high pressure over the Southeast. This system is expected to move inland over southeast Louisiana tonight. Guidance is advertising some organization as the surface circulation moves away from the upper ridge, with southerly flow on the lee side of the system strengthening for Thursday through Friday in response. Precipitable h20 values rise to around 2.5" as Gulf moisture is pumped inland. Add in MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range (with soundings showing a skinnier profile in the instability), and some guidance indicating some added upper divergence, training, northward moving efficient rainers are expected, with water issues a possibility, especially over our southern tier of MS/AL/FL counties. Low level flow shifts from southerly to southwesterly Thursday into Friday, but the airmass over the forecast remains very moist into Friday night before drier air starts to move northeast across the forecast area. Flash Flood Guidance values are very high (1 HR amounts over 4" over most of the forecast area in this morning`s guidance), so any issues is expected to be from training cells. The biggest question is will convection later Thursday night though Friday bring additional rain to the areas that received the higher rain Thursday. Feel any issues will be localized and not needing a Flood Watch to be issued. For this weekend into the coming week, the upper level high pressure over the forecast area shifts west over the region. Moisture levels drop to around 2" over the weekend into the coming week. Guidance is advertising another upper level shortwave trough moving over the northern Gulf Wednesday, with moisture levels seeing an uptick ahead of the system, and with that, an uptick in rain chances mid week. Looking at temperatures, the increased rain coverage and attendant cloud cover will drop high temperature to below seasonal norms for Thursday and Friday. Upper 80s to around 90 expected with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 over most of the forecast area. With upper level high pressure over the Southeast, temperatures quickly rise to above seasonal norms by Monday, mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 102 to 107 degree range are expected for the beginning of the week. The uptick in moisture levels combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will bring Heat Indices rising above Heat Advisory levels by Tuesday. An increasing tidal cycle will work with increasing onshore swell from the moderate onshore flow to bring a High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday through Friday night. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk by Monday as the onshore swell decreases with the easing onshore flow. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will continue through mid evening with areas of light rain with an embedded thunderstorm possible. Winds during this time will remain light and variable outside of any storms. A gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR is expected later this evening and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period as winds come around more southeasterly and increase in speeds. A very moist airmass with low LCL`s should support at least broken decks between 2.0-2.5 kft. Overall, CAMs suggest a weakening of the moisture convergence spreading from east to west as the surface low attempts to consolidate a bit more overnight offshore. After sunrise and the commencement of surface heating, expecting an appreciable uptick in convective development, especially along the coast and impacting the TAF sites where TEMPOs have been added for reductions in visibilities and ceilings in heavier rainfall. Overall as the surface low attempts to strengthen, southeasterly winds should increase to between 10-15 kts, with higher gusts. /JLH && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A moderate to at times strong onshore flow is expected through the end of the week on the lee side of the exiting system. Light to at times moderate generally onshore flow returns over the weekend lasting into mid week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 88 76 89 75 92 75 94 / 60 90 60 90 20 70 10 50 Pensacola 78 87 79 90 79 92 79 94 / 60 80 60 80 20 60 10 40 Destin 80 89 81 91 81 92 81 94 / 60 80 50 70 10 40 10 30 Evergreen 74 91 74 92 73 95 74 96 / 20 80 20 70 10 50 10 30 Waynesboro 74 91 73 90 73 94 73 95 / 20 80 20 80 10 60 10 30 Camden 74 91 74 91 73 93 74 94 / 10 70 10 70 10 50 10 30 Crestview 74 89 74 92 74 94 74 96 / 30 90 30 80 10 60 0 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238343 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:06 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 850 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 845 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Seasonable night with a chance of showers across the MD Eastern Shore. Evening weather analysis shows a weak shortwave moving across the northern portion of the Commonwealth. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated across Northern VA and Maryland. These thunderstorms are expected to remain north of the Virginia portion of the CWA. There is a chance that these thunderstorms will continue and just clip parts of the MD Eastern Shore this evening. However, confidence remains low but have maintained a slight chance to chance of Pops in the forecast. Skies remain mostly clear to the south. While across the central and northern parts of the CWA cloud cover increases slightly due to the anvils from the thunderstorms to the west. These clouds to the north should dissipate overnight. Temperatures this evening are in the lower 80s. These temps will continue to drop tonight and lows tomorrow morning will be in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat Advisories have been issued for central and southeastern VA and the Eastern Shore for Thursday as heat indices reach up to 107. Heat Advisories may be needed Friday as well. - Afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast. Hotter conditions return as temperatures at 850 mb reach 19-21 C and flow becomes more westerly. Heat indices are expected to reach up to 107 east of I-95 in VA, with values 100-105 elsewhere. Heat Advisories have been issued at this time for the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck, RIC metro, the peninsulas, and SE VA through 8 PM Thursday. Heat indices on Friday will also approach headline criteria, primarily in SE VA and NE NC, and Heat Advisories will likely be needed. Temperatures and dewpoints will then return to normal into the weekend. The next shortwave trough will move through the region on Thursday, aiding in the chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. More shear than the previous few days could allow these storms to potentially become more organized and marginal severe threat. The coverage of these storms and showers will likely be less than the last few days. On Friday, a substantial trough and cold front will approach the area. The drier airmass associated with it will stay to the north of the forecast area, and with the continued moist airmass with PWATs 2"+, higher coverage of showers and storms are likely on Friday. The front will likely stall before moving out of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers and storms once again. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week with the ridge possibly moving more to the west as surface high pressure moves over the New England region, which could allow slightly below average temperatures. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue through the 00z TAF period. Winds remain out of the SW between 10 to 15 kt across all terminals this evening. A few isolated to scattered showers/storms have begun to taper off this evening. Sky cover have begun to improve as the low level CU fields begin to diminish due to the loss of day time heating. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Winds will begin to increase in the evening with winds out of the SW ~15kt and gusts upwards of 20kt. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be possible tomorrow mainly across the Piedmont. An unsettled pattern continues into early next week with daily chances for scattered showers/storms. The best chance for scattered storms is Fri and Sat afternoon as a series of cold fronts move through. && .MARINE... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and the VA coastal waters from tonight through Thursday afternoon. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this afternoon given a Bermuda high offshore. SW winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this afternoon will gradually increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (locally 25-30 kt across the Ches Bay) later this evening into Thu afternoon. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds increase to 90-100% across the Ches Bay with wind probs for 25 kt gusts increasing to 65- 90% across the Ches Bay and VA coastal waters. As such, have expanded the SCAs and now have SCAs from 10 PM this evening through 4 PM Thu afternoon for the Lower James and Ches Bay and 1 AM Thu through 1 PM Thu for the rest of the rivers and the VA coastal waters. Winds diminish to around 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt later Thu afternoon into Thu night ahead of an approaching cold front. Will note that SCAs may need to be extended into Thu night if models trend higher with the winds, however, confidence was too low to extended them that far at this time. Winds diminish to 5- 10 kt Fri behind the cold front and remain generally benign through the middle of next week given high pressure lingering over the East Coast. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue into early next week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. The best chance of storms at this time appears to be Fri afternoon/evening. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft tonight into Thu before subsiding to 1-2 ft by Fri. Cannot rule out a few 4-5 ft seas across the VA coastal waters early Thu. Will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches Thu and Fri. However, the northern beaches appear to be a high-end low rip risk given 3-4 ft waves with SW winds. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 615 PM EDT Wednesday... Flood Warnings for Farmville and Lawrenceville have been cancelled. A new Flood Warning has been issued for the Blackwater river in Dendron. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ064- 075>078-081>086-089-090-093-095>100-512-514>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637-652-654-656. && $$ |
| #1238342 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:45 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 832 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Deep moisture lingers through Thursday, supporting high daily rain chances (60-80%). Highest coverage is expected across the interior. - Rain chances then trend near to below normal into late week and the weekend, before increasing once again into early next week. - Hot and humid conditions will prevail, with peak heat index values reaching 102-107 degrees through late week and potentially reaching Heat Advisory thresholds (at or above 108 degrees) for portions of the area this weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms already developing early this afternoon along and inland of the east coast sea breeze. Coverage should continue to increase, becoming scattered to numerous across the interior through late afternoon/early evening as boundary shifts inland and with moist airmass (PW values ~2.0") in place. This activity will move at a steady pace toward the N/NW, with a few stronger storms being capable of producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. As this activity winds down into the evening, mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight. However, will maintain low end rain chances (around 20-30 percent) along the Treasure Coast tonight, as isolated showers and possibly a storm or two may still move onshore. It will remain mild overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. Thursday-Friday...Subtropical ridge axis will remain near to north of the area through late week, maintaining surface winds out of the southeast. A wave of deeper moisture (PW values of 2-2.3") lifts northward across the area tomorrow, and should lead to another day of higher shower/storm coverage. This activity will initiate first across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in the morning with scattered to numerous showers and storms then developing and lifting N/NW across the remainder of east central FL through the afternoon. Rain chances will range around 60-80 percent Thursday, with greatest coverage forecast across the interior. Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms, producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. PW values decrease into Friday to around 1.6- 1.8 inches as drier air moves into the area. This will lead to near to below normal afternoon shower and storm coverage to end the work week. Rain chances will range from 20-30 percent along the coast and up to 40-50 percent inland. Hot and humid conditions forecast each day, with highs in the low 90s Thursday and low to mid 90s on Friday. Peak afternoon heat index values will range from 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows will continue in the 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Broad mid level ridging builds westward across central Florida through the weekend, with Atlantic ridge axis settling south across the area. Heat and humidity impacts look to increase into the weekend, with highs in the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland (potentially nearing upper 90s across portions of the interior) on Sunday. Peak heat index values are forecast to therefore rise, and may reach Heat Advisory thresholds (heat index values of 108-112 degrees), mainly for portions of the interior. Ridging is forecast to break down by Monday, but hot and humid conditions will persist into early next week. Some areas may see relief from the heat in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms, but overall coverage of this activity will be near to below normal into the weekend. Models solutions diverge some into Monday and Tuesday, but a wetter pattern may return into early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Tonight-Monday...Subtropical ridge remains in control of the weather pattern over the next several days, with generally favorable boating conditions forecast. The ridge axis will be near to north of the area through late week, settle southward across central FL this weekend, and then continue south of the area into early next week. Southeast winds around 10-15 knots will continue across the waters through tonight and Thursday, and will then diminish to around 5-10 knots into Friday. Winds speeds remain relatively light around 5-10 knots through the weekend out of the S/SE, and then become predominately offshore into early next week. Seas will generally range from 2-3 feet, potentially falling to 1-2 feet on Monday. Developing scattered showers and storms are forecast over the waters into tonight and Thursday morning. However, coverage of this activity looks to decrease and be below normal into late this week and through this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Ongoing showers and storms this evening, mainly across the interior. Have added VCTS for MLB, SFB, and MCO through 02Z. CAMs show convection ending around 02/03Z. Then mostly dry overnight, with light and variable winds. ESE/SE winds will increase to 5-8KT across the interior and around 10KT along the coast by mid morning. Guidance is showing the potential for gusts to 20 KT along the Treasure Coast in the afternoon. CAMs show showers moving in from the south along the Treasure Coast in the morning, so have included VCSH from VRB southward starting 15Z. Afternoon showers and storms are forecast for Thursday afternoon. Have included VCTS for coastal sites starting at 17/18Z and across the interior at 19Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 10 40 MCO 76 92 76 95 / 30 80 10 40 MLB 78 90 77 91 / 20 70 10 30 VRB 75 91 74 91 / 20 60 10 20 LEE 76 91 77 93 / 30 80 10 50 SFB 76 92 77 94 / 30 80 10 40 ORL 77 92 77 95 / 30 80 10 40 FPR 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238341 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 824 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Updated the PoP forecast to account for latest radar trends, but otherwise the previous forecast appears to be on track. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The tropical low known as Invest AL93 is moving west this afternoon just offshore the Emerald Coast. It will not develop into a tropical depression before getting well west of our forecast area, if at all. Nonetheless, we will be on its eastern flank through Thursday. So regardless of development, we will be in deep southerly flow, and the air mass will remain very moist. PW values of 2+ inches will be common. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are dotting the region this afternoon, and most places are getting at least a few passing showers this afternoon. With tropical rain processes in play and respectable moisture transport, rainfall rates can be impressive, even in lower-topped convective cells. Where you get higher-topped convection, torrential rainfall rates can be expected. If cells start to line up in more solid confluent or curved bands, then flooding would become a concern. So look for ongoing convection to fade quickly late this afternoon and early this evening, as convection works over the inland air mass. Convection will reignite late tonight and on Thursday morning over the bathwater-warm Gulf waters. Quick southerly flow will push convection onshore and into coastal communities well before sunrise. Convection will start to spread further inland as soon as we pass sunrise, spreading north of the FL state line by late morning. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The area of low pressure over the Gulf will have moved westward out of our waters and an upper level ridge will be building to our east. The Bermuda high, also to our east, will continue with southerly flow for the short term. During the day Friday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. PWATs will be around 2 inches, so heavy downpours will be possible with any storms. PoPs for Friday range from 60-80 percent, with highest chances along and south of I-10. Temperatures on Friday will be subdued from the rain and clouds, with highs in the mid-90s and heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will continue to build over the weekend into the start of next week. Temperatures will be gradually increasing while PoPs values will gradually decrease. However, PoPs will become more diurnally driven with the afternoon sea breeze. Warming temperatures will bring back heat advisories for this weekend through next week, but we will be monitoring based on how much mixing is expected during the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s for the highs, and mid-70s for the overnight lows. PoPs this weekend range from 30-50 percent, then increase to around 50-70 percent for the start of the work week as PWATs increase with added tropical moisture moving in from the East Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and into the early hours of Thursday. MVFR/IFR cigs will become increasingly likely after 04z across ECP/DHN and persist through at least sunrise. Further east, MVFR cigs are possible but confidence was not high enough to mention in the TAF at VLD/TLH/ABY. Showers and storms will potentially be quick to develop in the morning with showers/storms potentially moving in before sunrise at ECP and in the morning hours at DHN/TLH. While VFR conditions will likely prevail late in the morning and into the afternoon, showers and storms will likely bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Southerly breezes will increase over the waters tonight, becoming fresh on Thursday morning as we get squeezed between departing low pressure to our west and high pressure east of Florida. The summertime Bermuda ridge axis will expand westward on Friday and Saturday across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, persisting through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue for the foreseeable future. Areas of high dispersion are expected on Thursday afternoon due to enhanced southerly transport winds. A warming trend will get underway on Friday, with much above normal temperatures starting Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Isolated flash flooding will be a concern through Friday, mainly over our FL counties. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the weekend, then build during the first half of next week. Most any summer thunderstorm is capable of intense rainfall rates that can lead to short-lived nuisance flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 91 76 93 / 20 50 10 80 Panama City 78 89 79 91 / 40 80 40 70 Dothan 75 91 74 95 / 10 60 0 60 Albany 74 94 74 96 / 10 40 0 60 Valdosta 75 95 75 96 / 10 40 10 60 Cross City 73 93 74 93 / 20 60 10 60 Apalachicola 79 87 80 89 / 50 80 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM CDT Thursday through late Thursday night for FLZ108. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238340 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:27 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 820 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing cloudiness tonight with risk for showers during the pre-dawn hours. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with some becoming strong in interior Southern New England. Relief from the heat then arrives late this week and into the weekend. Other than a risk for showers and storms late Saturday or early Sunday, drier and more seasonable weather otherwise prevails for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Dry weather thru the predawn hours, though fog and low clouds return from the southern waters early tonight. * Showers with embedded rumbles of thunder possible early Thurs AM, but severe or hazardous weather is not anticipated. Stratus and fog already moving on to the Cape. Expecting this stratus and fog to move farther north overnight. Continuing to monitor showers and thunderstorms across PA and NJ. These could arrive in southern New England late tonight. Previous Discussion... Although a couple of buildups in the heat and humidity of the day were briefly able to overcome background subsidence from ridging aloft and pop a couple short-lived showers, these have fizzled quickly and in turn has led to a largely dry day. Stratus which has retreated to the southern waters and the Islands is expected to return back northward tonight once the sun goes down. This has been the case the last few nights. However ridging aloft will weaken and shift eastward early in the overnight, with modest 500 mb height falls associated with a lead shortwave disturbance aloft over Lake Erie/southern Ontario vicinity. Current satellite and composite radar mosaic shows scattered to numerous storms across western NY into western PA and eastern OH. While the vast majority of the overnight ends up being dry, models indicate some of this activity working its way ENE into Southern New England during the pre dawn to mid-morning Thursday period. Did increase PoPs to Chance levels during the early morning hours; there is some elevated instability around to support some potential for rumbles of thunder. The bigger issue is that models are still pretty much mixed in terms of outcomes regarding coverage, including the "7-10 Split" idea mentioned by the previous forecaster where activity passes to our north and also into the southern waters. Later shift(s) will need to refine this once it becomes more clear, but other than passing downpours, we`re not likely to see hazardous weather from any of this activity. Very muggy and warm night with lows in the mid 70s, close to dewpoint temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 350 PM Update: Key Messages: * Heat Advisory still in effect for Thurs for elevated heat indices, although areas in eastern MA and RI will be slow to shake free of cloud cover. * Possible severe thunderstorms late in the day (soonest after 4 PM, more likely 6-10 PM) in interior Southern New England, but the coverage could be more limited. Details: Overcast conditions are likely to begin the day, along with some areas of showers, perhaps accompanied by rumbles of thunder. Shower activity should be pulling eastward and offshore of Southern New England by around noontime. This occurs as a seasonably strong, 992 to 1000 mb low pressure treks through the St. Lawrence River Valley. After early-day showers come to an end, it leaves Southern New England in a narrow warm sector during the early to mid afternoon, with uncertainties on the extent to which we can turn mostly clear or at least partly cloudy. Current thinking is that the area from western and central MA into CT stands the best chance at trending mostly clear to partly cloudy. The coverage of cloudiness during the afternoon will greatly influence both the heat and humidity forecast for Thursday but also on the potency of potential strong thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon to early evening. We opted to leave the Heat Advisory as is with no changes to its status for Thursday. If cloud cover is slow to dissipate, that could really cut into how warm we get tomorrow and could reduce heat indices substantially, though even in cloud cover it will still be quite humid. This looks to be the case for eastern MA and into portions of RI, where stronger heating will at best be delayed until late in the day. A better chance at warming temperatures into the lower 90s is more likely in the interior, and with that will be a large degree of surface based instability to values around 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE from the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills east to central MA and northeast CT. Wind fields in the lowest 3-km or so of atmosphere are fairly strong with some curvature too, although the strongest deeper-layer shear lies to our north and west. Latest guidance indicates a pre-frontal trough developing somewhere either into the Champlain/Hudson Valley or the MA/NY/CT border area, with scattered t-storms developing along it later in the day. We think the timing of widely scattered thunderstorms looks to be later in the day, probably not sooner than 4 PM but more likely after 6 PM into the Berkshires, then moving eastward into western MA/CT and perhaps into central MA closer to 8-10 PM. It is possible but unlikely that storms could make it further east from there. If storms can develop into western and central MA and CT, they could pose both gusty to damaging straight line winds, but also a smaller risk for a tornado or two given the curving hodographs with 0-1 km shear magnitudes as high as 25 kt. We also included mention of gusty winds and heavy rain enhanced wording in the forecast for the western roughly half of Southern New England. A cold front moves in later Thursday evening and overnight, which as it passes will act to bring an end to the spell of heat and humidity. PWATs actually tumble below 1 inch by daybreak, with NW winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Relief from the heat and tropical humidity arrives Fri. * Showers and possible thunderstorms late Sat and into Sun. * Trending more seasonable by early next week. It now appears that a cold front will finally cross southern New England some time Friday morning. This will finally break the heat and tropical humidity across our region. In addition, there is very little chance of rainfall as well. These conditions are expected to persist through most of Saturday as well. A warm front late Saturday into Sunday should feature our next chance for some showers and thunderstorms. This will be accompanied by a spike in humidity closer to feeling tropical again, but its brief. High pressure over eastern Canada brings a return to more average conditions for late July early next week. Not seeing much risk for rainfall, at least until the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: High confidence in TAF trends, but moderate on both the timing and on SHRA coverage. Mainly VFR, although should see IFR-LIFR stratus and fog returning northward to areas near/south of I-95 and in the CT Valley between 00-08z. Risk for warm frontal SHRA/rogue TS between 08z to 13-15z Thu, but uncertainty on how widespread the shower threat may be. PROB30s included in TAFs given this uncertainty but may need to opt for TEMPOs or include as prevailing FM groups in later issuances. S winds 5-10 kt. Thursday: Moderate confidence. Warm frontal SHRA/possible TS moving eastward and offshore thru 15z Thu. Sub-VFR cloudiness likely to continue until then as well, and we should then see conditions improving to at least SCT-BKN VFR ceilings. Risk for TSRA / possible +TSRA for western New England TAFs (ORH, BAF, BDL) after 20z, but for now will message with PROB30s give uncertainties on coverage. TSRA risk further east is less likely, if any develop at all. S/SW winds around 10-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Thursday Night: High confidence. Cold front moves through the TAFs; any TSRA should weaken to showers after 02z, with conditions becoming all VFR at all airports. Winds become W/NW around 10-15 kt with low 20s-kt gusts post-frontal. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday with south winds around 10-15 kt. Main concern through Thurs is areas of fog during nighttime and morning hours, in addition to scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thu morning and possibly again Thu night. A cold front arrives on Friday, which could bring conditions to near SCA levels as NW winds increase to around 20-25 kt and seas nearing 5 ft. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238339 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 804 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The tropical low known as Invest AL93 is moving west this afternoon just offshore the Emerald Coast. It will not develop into a tropical depression before getting well west of our forecast area, if at all. Nonetheless, we will be on its eastern flank through Thursday. So regardless of development, we will be in deep southerly flow, and the air mass will remain very moist. PW values of 2+ inches will be common. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are dotting the region this afternoon, and most places are getting at least a few passing showers this afternoon. With tropical rain processes in play and respectable moisture transport, rainfall rates can be impressive, even in lower-topped convective cells. Where you get higher-topped convection, torrential rainfall rates can be expected. If cells start to line up in more solid confluent or curved bands, then flooding would become a concern. So look for ongoing convection to fade quickly late this afternoon and early this evening, as convection works over the inland air mass. Convection will reignite late tonight and on Thursday morning over the bathwater-warm Gulf waters. Quick southerly flow will push convection onshore and into coastal communities well before sunrise. Convection will start to spread further inland as soon as we pass sunrise, spreading north of the FL state line by late morning. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The area of low pressure over the Gulf will have moved westward out of our waters and an upper level ridge will be building to our east. The Bermuda high, also to our east, will continue with southerly flow for the short term. During the day Friday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. PWATs will be around 2 inches, so heavy downpours will be possible with any storms. PoPs for Friday range from 60-80 percent, with highest chances along and south of I-10. Temperatures on Friday will be subdued from the rain and clouds, with highs in the mid-90s and heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will continue to build over the weekend into the start of next week. Temperatures will be gradually increasing while PoPs values will gradually decrease. However, PoPs will become more diurnally driven with the afternoon sea breeze. Warming temperatures will bring back heat advisories for this weekend through next week, but we will be monitoring based on how much mixing is expected during the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s for the highs, and mid-70s for the overnight lows. PoPs this weekend range from 30-50 percent, then increase to around 50-70 percent for the start of the work week as PWATs increase with added tropical moisture moving in from the East Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the evening and into the early hours of Thursday. MVFR/IFR cigs will become increasingly likely after 04z across ECP/DHN and persist through at least sunrise. Further east, MVFR cigs are possible but confidence was not high enough to mention in the TAF at VLD/TLH/ABY. Showers and storms will potentially be quick to develop in the morning with showers/storms potentially moving in before sunrise at ECP and in the morning hours at DHN/TLH. While VFR conditions will likely prevail late in the morning and into the afternoon, showers and storms will likely bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Southerly breezes will increase over the waters tonight, becoming fresh on Thursday morning as we get squeezed between departing low pressure to our west and high pressure east of Florida. The summertime Bermuda ridge axis will expand westward on Friday and Saturday across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, persisting through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue for the foreseeable future. Areas of high dispersion are expected on Thursday afternoon due to enhanced southerly transport winds. A warming trend will get underway on Friday, with much above normal temperatures starting Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Isolated flash flooding will be a concern through Friday, mainly over our FL counties. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the weekend, then build during the first half of next week. Most any summer thunderstorm is capable of intense rainfall rates that can lead to short-lived nuisance flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 91 76 93 / 30 50 10 80 Panama City 78 89 79 91 / 70 80 40 70 Dothan 75 91 74 95 / 20 60 0 60 Albany 74 94 74 96 / 10 40 0 60 Valdosta 75 95 75 96 / 10 40 10 60 Cross City 73 93 74 93 / 30 60 10 60 Apalachicola 79 87 80 89 / 70 80 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM CDT Thursday through late Thursday night for FLZ108. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ112. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238338 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 816 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A fairly active afternoon and evening with a few storms getting from near to severe and some reports of tree damage near in Citrus Co. Most of the activity should continue to dissipate over the next hour or so. Calm and moist condition to be in place overnight with lows in the mid 70s. On Thursday, moisture returns as area of low pressure continues to move west away from the peninsula. Showers and storms are anticipated during the afternoon and into the evening similar to today, except most of the upper level support from today will not be available. Afternoon highs remain in the 90s with triple digits heat indices. No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail overnight with east to southeasterly winds in place. An area of low pressure to the north will support showers and storms again on Thursday with chances increasing through the day. Storms should begin to dissipate after around 23Z. HIgher winds and lower vis possible near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 92 79 94 / 20 70 30 50 FMY 76 93 77 95 / 20 80 20 60 GIF 76 94 77 96 / 20 70 10 50 SRQ 76 92 76 94 / 20 60 30 50 BKV 72 93 73 94 / 20 70 20 50 SPG 78 89 79 91 / 30 60 40 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1238337 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 817 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Stronger storms have been riding up the Atlantic sea breeze boundary along the I-75 corridor this evening. Storms have produced 40 mph gusts and heavy rainfall. With the loss of daytime heating, these storms will gradually wane in the next couple hours as they cross the state border into SE GA. && .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)... Breezy southeasterly winds have set up this morning as the local pressure gradient remains pinched between Atlantic high pressure and a westward-moving broad low pressure in the northern Gulf. Winds may continue to gust in the 20-25 mph through the afternoon, especially at the beaches. Abundant sunshine today will offer a hotter day through the rest of the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Combining with humidity, heat index - "feels like" - temperatures will max out in the 100-107 degree range. According to the latest RAOB, mid-level temperatures and lapse rates remain on the warm and weak side, respectively. Though some slight cooling is expected aloft today, this will be an inhibiting factor for severe storm development today. That said, isolated strong storms may materialize along outflow boundary collisions later this afternoon and during the early evening along the I-75 corridor in NE FL where deeper moisture will exist. The primary concern this afternoon will localized flooding as numerous storms push northward along I-75. A "Marginal" risk for flooding does exist from Live Oak to Ocala and points to the west through this evening. Locations that received considerable rain yesterday will be at a slightly higher risk of flooding. However, due to the pace of convection the potential for flash flooding will be low. Tonight, diurnal convection will fade off by 10 pm with only a scattered debris cloud hanging around through the night. Steering flow remains southerly but will gradually weaken overnight but should be enough to keep fog development at bay, even in areas where downpours do occur this afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool toward mid/upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)... Initially moist southeasterly-southerly flow will shift to become more westerly by the end of the week as high pressure ridging extends in over the region from out of the east. Daily bouts of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop through the period. High temperatures for the end of the week are expected to range between the lower to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will likely rise to be near Heat Advisory conditions by Friday. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)... High pressure will move from east to west during this period, resulting in a gradual shift in the prevailing flow to become more out of the northwest by Monday. Pattern of daily bouts of convection will continue through the long term period with troughing situated to the northeast potentially developing into a low pressure system would result in increased amounts of rainfall before midweek. High temperatures through the weekend and into next week will be above the seasonal average with max temps potentially reaching up into the upper 90s and even the lower 100s for inland areas. Potential for Heat Advisory conditions to continue through the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Atlantic sea breeze has shifted inland over GNV leaving breezy SSE winds in its wake. Thunderstorms will stream over GNV from the south over the next couple of hours lowering conditions to MVFR/IFR and bring gusty erratic winds. Winds and storms wane after 02Z. Winds for coastal terminals will remain elevated at around 10 kts tonight. SSE winds increase again for coastal and JAX metro sites between 16-18Z as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Showers and storms will be mainly limited to GNV and VQQ after 19Z. && .MARINE... A broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across the northern Gulf today while the Atlantic high pressure extends across the local waters. Breezy southerly winds between those two features will continue this afternoon and evening then gradually diminish overnight. The high will slide south and extend across south Florida late Friday allowing weak offshore flow to develop. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will be low through the rest of the week and over the weekend but are expected to increase over the waters next week as a trough shifts toward the area. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 94 74 96 / 10 30 10 50 SSI 79 89 79 91 / 10 10 0 30 JAX 75 94 76 96 / 10 20 10 50 SGJ 76 91 76 92 / 10 30 10 40 GNV 73 94 74 96 / 60 60 30 60 OCF 74 92 74 93 / 50 60 30 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238336 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 813 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through this weekend but continuing to ridge back across the area. Temperatures will increase Thu thru Sat as high pressure strengthens aloft and a dangerous combination of heat and humidity develops. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Thu thru Sun across the area with more widespread coverage by early next week as a front drops southward to the area. && .UPDATE... Took POPs out of the forecast for the remainder of the evening hrs and thru the overnight hrs. Only exception may be a few nocturnal showers/tstorm skirting the Cape Fear area, although am inclined not to include given low level flow more southwesterly as opposed to due south the past several days. Min temps mid to upper 70s except around 80 at the coast given SSTs in the 80s. Hires models keep low stratus and fog development at bay and thus will continue with the mostly clear fcst thru the night with mainly dissipating convective debris mid and upper level clouds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Two small but important changes will take place in the weather pattern over the next 24 hours. The first will be 500 mb high pressure centered just south of Bermuda starting to move westward toward Florida. Our 500 mb heights will rise by ~20 meters by tomorrow afternoon with mid level warming and drying anticipated. This should act to reduce (but not eliminate) airmass convection that we`ve seen dot the area the last couple of days. I`ll still hang onto a slight chance of showers and t-storms along and inland from the seabreeze with PoPs 20 percent or less. The other item of note is an area of surface low pressure moving from the Great Lakes tonight northeastward along the US/Canadian border on Thursday. The pressure falls associated with this feature will extend as far south as the Mid Atlantic states and will help to veer our surface wind from south to southwest. This should hold the seabreeze boundary closer to the coast Thursday and delay the arrival of cooler marine air into cities like Conway, Wilmington, and Burgaw. The overall warmer airmass, fewer diurnal storms, and an inhibited seabreeze should allow temperatures to rise into the 93-95 range inland with heat indices approaching 105. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A westward expansion of the mid-upper ridge axis is anticipated during this period, which will subsequently bring more dry air and subsidence into play going into the weekend, along with higher max temps and less cloud cover. Thus, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for Friday and Saturday as max temps reach into the mid-upper 90s amidst dew points in the low-mid 70s away from the coast. Dry air and subsidence beneath the ridge axis will contribute to more isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage, resulting in mainly low-chance PoPs across the area. Lows in the mid- upper 70s will continue. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-level troughing well north of the forecast area is expected to nudge heights down later in the weekend as the ridge axis is pushed further westward. Early next week, guidance shows this troughing digging into the western Atlantic, setting up a northwest flow regime over the Carolinas. Although some dry air and subsidence will linger, moisture supplied by daily upstream convection will help to reduce the amount of dry air and keep multi-layered clouds frequently in the sky. In addition, depending on how far south the western Atlantic troughing reaches, and where the ridge axis parks itself to the west, shortwave energy riding down the east side of the ridge may yield one or more convective complexes originating from the higher terrain reaching the forecast area. Near the surface, high pressure is expected to shift over the Gulf, causing winds to be more southwesterly to westerly. Thus, the sea breeze should also become more active and stay nearer to the coast early next week, leading to higher PoPs across the area after this weekend. Temperatures will initially be abnormally hot for this time of year before settling back towards normal, with highs in the mid-upper 90s on Sunday, nudging into the mid-90s on Monday, then low 90s or upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid-upper 70s are still expected as dew points remain in the mid-upper 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR to dominate overnight as S-SW winds stay active thru the night. GFSLamp guidance keeps the majority of the low stratus at bay and keeps any ground fog development isolated at best. Convection waning pretty quickly as the days insolation ceases. Will deal with convective debris mid and upper level clouds this evening scouring out to mainly thin/opaque cirrus overnight. Upper ridging extending from the Bermuda high well offshore from the SE States Coast, will attempt to keep a lid on any thunderstorm development during daylight Thu. But given the huge amounts of instability/CAPE numbers progged, included VCTS for the MYR and CRE coastal terminals and a POP30 for FLO and LBT terminals where periodic MVFR remains possible. Low level winds become more southwesterly and should keep the majority of the nocturnal Atlantic showers and tstorms just off the coast, possibly skirting the Cape Fear area, not enough to include an ILM terminal inclusion. Looking at SSW 5 to 10 thru the night, SW around 10 kt daylight Thu morning, SW 10 to 15 kt inland terminals Thu afternoon/evening, except S 10-15 kt g20 kt for the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may bring brief MVFR ceiling and visibility impacts Friday through Sunday, mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. Coverage may increase Monday as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Bermuda High Pressure offshore will maintain a southerly wind across the Carolinas tonight, veering more southwesterly on Thursday as pressures fall across the Mid Atlantic states. There will likely be fewer showers developing across the ocean tonight versus the last two nights as the atmosphere aloft becomes warmer and drier. Wind speeds should average 10-15 knots outside of local seabreeze enhancement which could approach 20 knots Thursday afternoon in the Myrtle Beach vicinity and north of Cape Fear. Dominant waves should be 6 seconds period from the south with sea heights averaging 3 to 4 feet. Thursday night through Monday... Bermuda high pressure will maintain steady southwesterly flow over the waters through the weekend with daily enhancements due to the sea breeze, although gusts should stay just shy of SCA criteria. After the weekend, Bermuda high pressure splits with one smaller high centering over the Gulf and another displaced into the central Atlantic. The result should be weaker winds that generally favor westerly, but see a southerly turn during the day due to the sea breeze. Waves will stem from a combination of southerly wind waves around 2-3 ft at 5 sec and southeasterly swell around 1-2 ft with a period around 8 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238335 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 651 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A dry pattern continues across Deep South Texas with high pressure generally in place along the lower Texas coast. A low across the northern Gulf is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center with a 40 percent chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours to 7 days. With this activity northeast of the CWA, expect an increase in subsidence and slight bump to rather seasonal temperatures into early next week, especially across the brush country. A moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk is expected through the period. At this time, conditions along the beaches are expected to improve into Thursday, with a low risk of rip currents through Friday. Any tropical development across the northern Gulf may increase swell or swell period and push an elevated threat of rip currents to start the weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents returns Saturday and persists into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue this evening, with gusts diminishing overnight. Gusts will likely pick up again around noon Thursday. Skies will likely remain mostly clear through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and light to moderate seas are expected to generally prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low across the northern Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week into this weekend. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238334 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Upper trough and weak surface low over the eastern Gulf off of the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Most of the associated convection remains offshore, although a few showers have developed in the last hour near the Mississippi-Alabama border. Temperatures were in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values around 105 degrees. The main concern through Thursday night will be the potential for heavy rainfall, especially along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor. While the morning soundings around the area indicated precipitable water values were near 1.8 inches (near climo), as the trough moves westward, those values are expected to increase to 2.2 to 2.5 inches tomorrow, which will be above the 90th percentile. Anything close to 2.5 inches will be at the top end of the chart. At this point, significant development of the low pressure isn`t expected, but can`t be entirely ruled out. The upper trough axis is expected to track westward along the coast tonight and Thursday, and be over western Louisiana by Thursday evening. Clusters of showers and storms will move across the area, mainly late tonight and during the day Thursday. While it won`t rain all the time over the next 36 hours, the heaviest cells will certainly be capable of producing 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour, and 3 to 6 inches by Friday morning, especially south of I-10, with isolated higher amounts likely. If that falls in the wrong places, notably urban areas with poor drainage, flash flooding is certainly possible, and will hold the Flood Watch in place as currently depicted. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 With the upper trough to the west of us on Friday, the threat for organized heavy rainfall may be somewhat diminished, but precipitable water values will still remain around 2 inches, and cell movements are expected to be slower. That means the potential for flooding continues on Friday and Friday evening. Some indications that Saturday could remain at risk before ridging builds back into the area. Beyond Saturday, we`ll be back in a more "normal" summer convective pattern with isolated to scattered afternoon convection, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s before convective development cuts off heating. If we reach mid 90s, with the ground fairly wet, that would indicate that Heat Advisories may be necessary from Sunday onward. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Frequent MVFR or lower reductions through the cycle as a tropical disturbance moves into the region from the east. This will allow for convection and heavy rainfall to become both a VIS/CIG problem off and on (mostly on) through the cycle. Winds will mainly be light for the most part and likely variable as the system moves west in time. However, some stronger wind gusts in the deeper convection will be possible. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Still much uncertainty whether any tropical development occurs with the trough and surface low in the eastern Gulf. Current expectation is that sustained winds remain below 20 knots, which would mean only Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be needed tomorrow afternoon/evening into the first half of Friday. The more significant threat would be thunderstorms producing locally higher winds/seas. Coastal flooding is currently not expected to be an issue, as winds aren`t sufficient to bring tides up more than a foot or so, and we are just exiting the neap portion of the cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 90 74 88 / 30 80 30 90 BTR 77 90 76 88 / 40 90 50 90 ASD 74 88 74 88 / 70 90 60 90 MSY 78 88 78 90 / 70 90 60 90 GPT 75 89 77 88 / 80 90 70 90 PQL 74 89 75 88 / 80 80 70 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-057-058-071-081>086. Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071. Flood Watch through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238332 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 725 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern of afternoon/evening showers and storms continue today, but with less coverage. The current radar shows a few isolated showers across the area, with more scattered convection to the south in North Carolina. With better flow aloft, these showers are able to move, rather than the stationary storms from days past. Later today, a shortwave will move through the northern part of the Commonwealth, aiding in more scattered showers and storms in central VA and SE MD. The coverage looks to be overall less for the forecast area than the previous days, however with the saturated grounds, flash flood guidance remains low with most of the area only requiring an inch or less for flooding to occur. The moist air mass continues with PWAT values above 2" (well above normal) for the next few days. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible in the northern VA piedmont with damaging winds as the primary threat, as SPC has the NW counties in a marginal risk through tonight. Most convection should begin to dissipate as the daytime heat reduces, but a few lingering isolated showers are possible this evening. Temperatures are currently nearing the high in the upper 80s to near 90F. Tonight`s lows will be seasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat Advisories have been issued for central and southeastern VA and the Eastern Shore for Thursday as heat indices reach up to 107. Heat Advisories may be needed Friday as well. - Afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast. Hotter conditions return as temperatures at 850 mb reach 19-21 C and flow becomes more westerly. Heat indices are expected to reach up to 107 east of I-95 in VA, with values 100-105 elsewhere. Heat Advisories have been issued at this time for the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck, RIC metro, the peninsulas, and SE VA through 8 PM Thursday. Heat indices on Friday will also approach headline criteria, primarily in SE VA and NE NC, and Heat Advisories will likely be needed. Temperatures and dewpoints will then return to normal into the weekend. The next shortwave trough will move through the region on Thursday, aiding in the chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. More shear than the previous few days could allow these storms to potentially become more organized and marginal severe threat. The coverage of these storms and showers will likely be less than the last few days. On Friday, a substantial trough and cold front will approach the area. The drier airmass associated with it will stay to the north of the forecast area, and with the continued moist airmass with PWATs 2"+, higher coverage of showers and storms are likely on Friday. The front will likely stall before moving out of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers and storms once again. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week with the ridge possibly moving more to the west as surface high pressure moves over the New England region, which could allow slightly below average temperatures. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue through the 00z TAF period. Winds remain out of the SW between 10 to 15 kt across all terminals this evening. A few isolated to scattered showers/storms have begun to taper off this evening. Sky cover have begun to improve as the low level CU fields begin to diminish due to the loss of day time heating. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Winds will begin to increase in the evening with winds out of the SW ~15kt and gusts upwards of 20kt. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be possible tomorrow mainly across the Piedmont. An unsettled pattern continues into early next week with daily chances for scattered showers/storms. The best chance for scattered storms is Fri and Sat afternoon as a series of cold fronts move through. && .MARINE... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and the VA coastal waters from tonight through Thursday afternoon. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this afternoon given a Bermuda high offshore. SW winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this afternoon will gradually increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (locally 25-30 kt across the Ches Bay) later this evening into Thu afternoon. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds increase to 90-100% across the Ches Bay with wind probs for 25 kt gusts increasing to 65- 90% across the Ches Bay and VA coastal waters. As such, have expanded the SCAs and now have SCAs from 10 PM this evening through 4 PM Thu afternoon for the Lower James and Ches Bay and 1 AM Thu through 1 PM Thu for the rest of the rivers and the VA coastal waters. Winds diminish to around 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt later Thu afternoon into Thu night ahead of an approaching cold front. Will note that SCAs may need to be extended into Thu night if models trend higher with the winds, however, confidence was too low to extended them that far at this time. Winds diminish to 5- 10 kt Fri behind the cold front and remain generally benign through the middle of next week given high pressure lingering over the East Coast. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue into early next week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. The best chance of storms at this time appears to be Fri afternoon/evening. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft tonight into Thu before subsiding to 1-2 ft by Fri. Cannot rule out a few 4-5 ft seas across the VA coastal waters early Thu. Will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches Thu and Fri. However, the northern beaches appear to be a high-end low rip risk given 3-4 ft waves with SW winds. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 615 PM EDT Wednesday... Flood Warnings for Farmville and Lawrenceville have been cancelled. A new Flood Warning has been issued for the Blackwater river in Dendron. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ064- 075>078-081>086-089-090-093-095>100-512-514>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637-652-654-656. && $$ |
| #1238330 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 608 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low rain chances will persist through Thursday morning. - Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. - NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the northern Gulf later today or tonight, giving it a 40% chance of development into a tropical system within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday through early Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Drier air has definitely filtered across Southeast TX and the GOES Total Precipitation Water imagery is currently showing PWs of 1.5" to 1.6" across much of the area and will help limit rain chances for today through Thursday morning. There is still some wiggle room for a quick shower to develop this afternoon, but coverage overall will be fairly isolated. The high temperatures are expected to be mostly in the lower 90s, but some locations could see highs reaching the mid 90s. The heat indices will stay in the lower 100s for much of the region. We will see moisture starting to recover sometime mid morning or early afternoon on Thursday as a warm moist airmass associated to the tropical disturbance currently located over the Florida Peninsula, begins to filter in from the east southeast. I did notice that although the NBM shows us fairly dry during the morning to early afternoon hours, a few vort maxes ejected westward from the disturbance could move over us during the late morning to late afternoon hours and may trigger some isolated showers/storms during that period. We will have to see if moisture and instability will be enough for rain development, however. By the evening to early night hours, the disturbance is progged to move westward, roughly over the LA coastal locations, and will continue to lead to a rise in low and mid level moisture over Southeast TX. We may start to see showers and thunderstorms developing/moving over the areas south of I-10 and east of I-45 by this time. We will see the shower and thunderstorm activity expand further west and northwest during the overnight to morning hours and is expected to further increase as we progress into Friday afternoon. This is when models show local PWs reaching the 2.0" to 2.5" range for much of the area, which could lead to period of moderate to heavy rainfall, in particular for areas near and east of I-45 and near and south of I-10. Ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas is possible. The rains could also affect your commute, thus, make sure to check the radar and local traffic before departing. PWs will decrease from late Friday into Saturday morning, and many areas could see PWs of 1.8" to 2.0" by Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we may have lower chances of rain on Saturday. The forecast currently is carrying PoPs of around 15-35% PoPs for Saturday. More details regarding the disturbance can be found in the Tropical Discussion below. Low rain chances are expected starting on Sunday as drier air moves into Southeast TX and persists through the mid week timeframe. High temperatures may increase also into the mid to upper 90s during the second half of the week. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light winds, mostly southerly and VFR conditions will dominate throughout the TAF period. Isolated CIGS and patchy fog could develop at times during the early morning hours, possibly introducing MVFR conditions, though any FL reductions will likely be short lived. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet will continue for the next several days. Lower rain chances will persist through Thursday morning as drier air prevails over the region. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to increase as a tropical disturbance moves westward from the north-central Gulf waters and into the LA coastal region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of this disturbance. The 2PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook continued a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours. More information regarding the track and intensity will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates it. For this forecast package, I have continued to bring in slightly higher seas of around 4 feet for the offshore waters, but these heights can change within the next upcoming forecasts. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts. Cotto && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Not too many changes made to the previous tropical discussion. Satellite continues to depict an area of low pressure currently moving westward over the Florida Panhandle and is expected to move into the northeastern or north-central Gulf waters later today or tonight. Environmental conditions may be favorable for further development as the system continues to move over the waters and a tropical depression could form as it approaches the coast of LA on Thursday or Friday. There`s still uncertainty regarding the strength and track of this system, given that its unknown how far into the waters the system will be. More information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter can investigate it. Regardless of formation, the system could bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late Thursday into early Saturday. Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as well as the latest forecasts. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 94 74 91 / 0 10 0 30 Houston (IAH) 75 93 77 89 / 0 10 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 80 91 79 89 / 0 10 50 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238329 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 608 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 554 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low (10-30%)chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly Victoria Crossroads. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 While there will not be much of an appreciable difference, the forecast is still dependent on the development (or lack of development) of tropical invest AL93 over the northeast Gulf. Current thinking is that this system will remain mostly disorganized (though a tropical depression could develop) as it moves along the northern Gulf coast. This would allow a plume of moisture to move over the area, increasing our chances for precipitation Friday and Saturday over the Victoria Crossroads. Chances are still low (10-30%) and will mainly be seabreeze driven. The increased moisture will also lead to some increasing temperatures. Most locations will still remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but we will face a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Typical summertime pattern continues with generally VFR conditions prevailing through much of the TAF period. Brief MVFR conditions can be expected early Thursday morning, mainly for LRD, ALI and VCT and have included TEMPO groups to address these conditions. The CRP and COT TAF sites could also see MVFR conditions, but for an even shorter duration, thus will not include in these TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds with gusts to fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Occasionally higher gusts around 25 knots will be possible from Port Aransas and southward each afternoon. Rain chances are low through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 74 96 75 94 / 0 0 10 20 Laredo 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 80 90 79 90 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238328 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 711 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. A wavy frontal boundary will bring scattered thundershowers Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms relegated to the offshore waters. Temps will be very warm and muggy with lows around 5 degrees above climo, in the 75-80 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Wed...Heights/thicknesses rise on Thu, translating to hotter and drier conditions. Heat indices will be flirting with the 105 degree threshold range, but opted out of issuing heat headlines, as values will be brief and not widespread enough for a heat adv at this time. With the inc in thicknesses, much less covg of showers/storms are expected, with only a 20% chc of storms during the afternoon/evening hours, and mainly north of Hwy 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Friday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. An increase in moisture for Friday into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Friday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Friday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Fri/... As of 715 PM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across terminals this evening as diurnally driven convection continues to die off. Expecting predominantly scattered to broken mid-high clouds from earlier convection through the night, although some sct low cu drifting off the water may graze OAJ and EWN. Steady southwest breeze overnight will preclude any low stratus or fog. VFR conditions extend into tomorrow although breezier conditions anticipated with gusts up to 20 kt at times, especially across the coastal plain. Building subsidence aloft should largely preclude any convective coverage more than isolated. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 PM Wed...Swrly gradient a bit tighter this afternoon with winds of 10-20 kt, with gusts in the 20-24 kt range, and will cont through tonight. Seas of 2-4 feet will cont through tonight. A thermal gradient will develop on Thu as heat builds, and inc the swrly winds into the 15-25 kt range, and a SCA has been issued for the coastal waters as well as Pamlico, Croatan, Roanoke sounds for Thu afternoon through Thu night. Seas will build to 3-5 ft as a result. LONG TERM /Friday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-150-158-231. Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156. && $$ |
| #1238327 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 658 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)... Breezy southeasterly winds have set up this morning as the local pressure gradient remains pinched between Atlantic high pressure and a westward-moving broad low pressure in the northern Gulf. Winds may continue to gust in the 20-25 mph through the afternoon, especially at the beaches. Abundant sunshine today will offer a hotter day through the rest of the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Combining with humidity, heat index - "feels like" - temperatures will max out in the 100-107 degree range. According to the latest RAOB, mid-level temperatures and lapse rates remain on the warm and weak side, respectively. Though some slight cooling is expected aloft today, this will be an inhibiting factor for severe storm development today. That said, isolated strong storms may materialize along outflow boundary collisions later this afternoon and during the early evening along the I-75 corridor in NE FL where deeper moisture will exist. The primary concern this afternoon will localized flooding as numerous storms push northward along I-75. A "Marginal" risk for flooding does exist from Live Oak to Ocala and points to the west through this evening. Locations that received considerable rain yesterday will be at a slightly higher risk of flooding. However, due to the pace of convection the potential for flash flooding will be low. Tonight, diurnal convection will fade off by 10 pm with only a scattered debris cloud hanging around through the night. Steering flow remains southerly but will gradually weaken overnight but should be enough to keep fog development at bay, even in areas where downpours do occur this afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool toward mid/upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)... Initially moist southeasterly-southerly flow will shift to become more westerly by the end of the week as high pressure ridging extends in over the region from out of the east. Daily bouts of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop through the period. High temperatures for the end of the week are expected to range between the lower to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will likely rise to be near Heat Advisory conditions by Friday. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)... High pressure will move from east to west during this period, resulting in a gradual shift in the prevailing flow to become more out of the northwest by Monday. Pattern of daily bouts of convection will continue through the long term period with troughing situated to the northeast potentially developing into a low pressure system would result in increased amounts of rainfall before midweek. High temperatures through the weekend and into next week will be above the seasonal average with max temps potentially reaching up into the upper 90s and even the lower 100s for inland areas. Potential for Heat Advisory conditions to continue through the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Atlantic sea breeze has shifted inland over GNV leaving breezy SSE winds in its wake. Thunderstorms will stream over GNV from the south over the next couple of hours lowering conditions to MVFR/IFR and bring gusty erratic winds. Winds and storms wane after 02Z. Winds for coastal terminals will remain elevated at around 10 kts tonight. SSE winds increase again for coastal and JAX metro sites between 16-18Z as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Showers and storms will be mainly limited to GNV and VQQ after 19Z. && .MARINE... A broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across the northern Gulf today while the Atlantic high pressure extends across the local waters. Breezy southerly winds between those two features will continue this afternoon and evening then gradually diminish overnight. The high will slide south and extend across south Florida late Friday allowing weak offshore flow to develop. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will be low through the rest of the week and over the weekend but are expected to increase over the waters next week as a trough shifts toward the area. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 94 74 96 / 10 30 10 50 SSI 79 89 79 91 / 0 20 0 30 JAX 75 94 76 96 / 10 50 0 50 SGJ 76 91 76 92 / 10 50 0 40 GNV 73 94 74 96 / 20 70 10 60 OCF 74 92 74 93 / 30 70 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238326 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 656 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 With the strong south/southeasterly flow, the prime afternoon activity is beginning to shift inland and away from a majority of our eastern metro corridor. There will be the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms for the metro, but the busiest time for weather has passed. With the diurnal heating and southeasterly winds, there is potential for some strong thunderstorms this afternoon across our interior and Gulf Coast, especially near Lake Okeechobee. Thankfully most active weather is moving much quicker, but with potential for an inch or two of rainfall, any slow-moving storms will be monitored closely. An isolated storm may lead to poor drainage and urban flooding. Additional hazards include frequent lightning, gusty, erratic winds, and heavy downpours. A look into the end of the week and weekend ahead...we may be looking at our first need for a heat advisory of the season. The most recent forecast model guidance suggests with the humidity levels and warming temperatures, our local heat indices will be approaching our need to issue heat advisories. We will be keeping a close eye on models in the days to come. More updates to come. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast. Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today. Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise. This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western half of South Florida. On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a bit less than today (Wednesday). The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if they happen) would be fairly isolated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while, it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness. To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 SHRA/TSRA will gradually wane in coverage across South Florida over the next several hours with light southeasterly flow prevailing at east coast terminals with L/V winds inland and at KAPF. Reliable model guidance indicates a increase in SHRA at east coast terminals at daybreak (10-14z) on Thursday with the eventual development of TSRA shortly after. Additional changes on timing may be needed but bouts of sub-MVFR cigs could occur at east coast terminals during this time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 There will be an elevated risk of rip currents along the Palm Beach coast tomorrow, with the potential to reach high risk for the entire Atlantic Coast for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 90 81 91 / 40 50 10 20 West Kendall 77 90 78 91 / 40 50 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 92 81 93 / 40 60 10 20 Homestead 80 89 80 91 / 40 50 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 81 90 / 40 60 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 81 89 81 91 / 40 60 10 20 Pembroke Pines 82 94 82 94 / 40 60 10 20 West Palm Beach 80 90 79 91 / 30 60 10 10 Boca Raton 80 91 79 92 / 40 60 10 10 Naples 77 92 77 94 / 40 80 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238324 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 612 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will persist in the upper levels while high pressure centered over the southeastern states dominates at the surface. A tropical-like airmass will remain in place, with SPC Mesoanalysis showing PWAT values between 1.9" and 2.1". Onshore flow will continue to usher in showers with an occasional grumble of thunder off of the Atlantic waters. The 12Z HREF appears to have a decent handle on the current radar trends, indicating that shower activity will begin to wane around 4/5PM and remaining dry through the overnight period. Temperatures this afternoon have reached into the low 90s across the region, with some locations reaching heat index values of 100-103F. The short-lived shower activity has kept heat index values in check though, providing a brief moment of relief from the hot and muggy conditions. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with mid 70s inland and around 80 at the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong deep layered ridge will continue to gradually build Thursday through Saturday, bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions. Friday and Saturday will feature highs in the mid/upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, and heat indices topping 108 in some places and the dry air/subsidence aloft limits afternoon convection. We could need Heat Advisories for part of the area both days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Sunday the forecast becomes more uncertain as H5 heights begin to slowly fall. Well above normal temps and heat index values in the 105-110 range could persist, but are very dependent on afternoon convection which, based on the upper pattern, will likely be greater in coverage that previous days. The upper ridge axis will shift west of the area early next week, allowing some shortwave energy to rotate in from the north. This is expected to result in an increase in convective coverage Monday and Tuesday, with diurnal trends most likely. Toasty conditions will continue into Monday, with Heat Advisories again possible. Temps expected to trend closer to normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 17/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through early Thursday evening. Isolated showers/tstms should develop west of the terminals Thursday afternoon, although they could get a little close to KSAV for a brief period before the passage of the sea breeze. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening hours. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure will dominate across the marine waters through tonight. Generally 10 to 15 knots is expected, with the flow transitioning from S/SE to S/SW overnight. Seas should average 2 to 3 ft. Thursday through Monday: High pressure will prevail, maintaining typical summertime weather in the marine area. No headlines expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238320 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 402 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing cloudiness tonight with risk for showers during the pre-dawn hours. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with some becoming strong in interior Southern New England. Relief from the heat then arrives late this week and into the weekend. Other than a risk for showers and storms late Saturday or early Sunday, drier and more seasonable weather otherwise prevails for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 350 PM Update: Key Messages: * Dry weather thru the predawn hours, though fog and low clouds return from the southern waters early tonight. * Showers with embedded rumbles of thunder possible early Thurs AM, but severe or hazardous weather is not anticipated. Details: Although a couple of buildups in the heat and humidity of the day were briefly able to overcome background subsidence from ridging aloft and pop a couple short-lived showers, these have fizzled quickly and in turn has led to a largely dry day. Stratus which has retreated to the southern waters and the Islands is expected to return back northward tonight once the sun goes down. This has been the case the last few nights. However ridging aloft will weaken and shift eastward early in the overnight, with modest 500 mb height falls associated with a lead shortwave disturbance aloft over Lake Erie/southern Ontario vicinity. Current satellite and composite radar mosaic shows scattered to numerous storms across western NY into western PA and eastern OH. While the vast majority of the overnight ends up being dry, models indicate some of this activity working its way ENE into Southern New England during the pre dawn to mid-morning Thursday period. Did increase PoPs to Chance levels during the early morning hours; there is some elevated instability around to support some potential for rumbles of thunder. The bigger issue is that models are still pretty much mixed in terms of outcomes regarding coverage, including the "7-10 Split" idea mentioned by the previous forecaster where activity passes to our north and also into the southern waters. Later shift(s) will need to refine this once it becomes more clear, but other than passing downpours, we`re not likely to see hazarous weather from any of this activity. Very muggy and warm night with lows in the mid 70s, close to dewpoint temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 350 PM Update: Key Messages: * Heat Advisory still in effect for Thurs for elevated heat indices, although areas in eastern MA and RI will be slow to shake free of cloud cover. * Possible severe thunderstorms late in the day (soonest after 4 PM, more likely 6-10 PM) in interior Southern New England, but the coverage could be more limited. Details: Overcast conditions are likely to begin the day, along with some areas of showers, perhaps accompanied by rumbles of thunder. Shower activity should be pulling eastward and offshore of Southern New England by around noontime. This occurs as a seasonably strong, 992 to 1000 mb low pressure treks through the St. Lawrence River Valley. After early-day showers come to an end, it leaves Southern New England in a narrow warm sector during the early to midafternoon, with uncertainties on the extent to which we can turn mostly clear or at least partly cloudy. Current thinking is that the area from western and central MA into CT stands the best chance at trending mostly clear to partly cloudy. The coverage of cloudiness during the afternoon will greatly influence both the heat and humidity forecast for Thursday but also on the potency of potential strong thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon to early evening. We opted to leave the Heat Advisory as is with no changes to its status for Thursday. If cloud cover is slow to dissipate, that could really cut into how warm we get tomorrow and could reduce heat indices substantially, though even in cloud cover it will still be quite humid. This looks to be the case for eastern MA and into portions of RI, where stronger heating will at best be delayed until late in the day. A better chance at warming temperatures into the lower 90s is more likely in the interior, and with that will be a large degree of surface based instability to values around 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE from the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills east to central MA and northeast CT. Wind fields in the lowest 3-km or so of atmosphere are fairly strong with some curvature too, although the strongest deeper-layer shear lies to our north and west. Latest guidance indicates a pre-frontal trough developing somewhere either into the Champlain/Hudson Valley or the MA/NY/CT border area, with scattered t-storms developing along it later in the day. We think the timing of widely scattered thunderstorms looks to be later in the day, probably not sooner than 4 PM but more likely after 6 PM into the Berkshires, then moving eastward into western MA/CT and perhaps into central MA closer to 8-10 PM. It is possible but unlikely that storms could make it further east from there. If storms can develop into western and central MA and CT, they could pose both gusty to damaging straight line winds, but also a smaller risk for a tornado or two given the curving hodographs with 0-1 km shear magnitudes as high as 25 kt. We also included mention of gusty winds and heavy rain enhanced wording in the forecast for the western roughly half of Southern New England. A cold front moves in later Thursday evening and overnight, which as it passes will act to bring an end to the spell of heat and humidity. PWATs actually tumble below 1 inch by daybreak, with NW winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Relief from the heat and tropical humidity arrives Fri. * Showers and possible thunderstorms late Sat and into Sun. * Trending more seasonable by early next week. It now appears that a cold front will finally cross southern New England some time Friday morning. This will finally break the heat and tropical humidity across our region. In addition, there is very little chance of rainfall as well. These conditions are expected to persist through most of Saturday as well. A warm front late Saturday into Sunday should feature our next chance for some showers and thunderstorms. This will be accompanied by a spike in humidity closer to feeling tropical again, but its brief. High pressure over eastern Canada brings a return to more average conditions for late July early next week. Not seeing much risk for rainfall, at least until the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Through 00z Thursday: High confidence. VFR, with IFR-LIFR stratus adjacent to the New England south- coastal waters. A pop-up SHRA possible but largely dry weather prevails. S to SW winds around 10 kt, although with SE seabreezes flipping to SW by 20-21z. Tonight: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on both the timing and on SHRA coverage. Mainly VFR, although should see IFR-LIFR stratus and fog returning northward to areas near/south of I-95 and in the CT Valley between 00-08z. Risk for warm frontal SHRA/rogue TS between 08z to 13-15z Thu, but uncertainty on how widespread the shower threat may be. PROB30s included in TAFs given this uncertainty but may need to opt for TEMPOs or include as prevailing FM groups in later issuances. S winds 5-10 kt. Thursday: Moderate confidence. Warm frontal SHRA/possible TS moving eastward and offshore thru 15z Thu. Sub-VFR cloudiness likely to continue until then as well, and we should then see conditions improving to at least SCT-BKN VFR ceilings. Risk for TSRA / possible +TSRA for western New England TAFs (ORH, BAF, BDL) after 20z, but for now will message with PROB30s give uncertainties on coverage. TSRA risk further east is less likely, if any develop at all. S/SW winds around 10-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Thursday Night: High confidence. Cold front moves through the TAFs; any TSRA should weaken to showers after 02z, with conditions becoming all VFR at all airports. Winds become W/NW around 10-15 kt with low 20s-kt gusts post-frontal. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday with south winds around 10-15 kt. Main concern through Thurs is areas of fog during nighttime and morning hours, in addition to scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thu morning and possibly again Thu night. A cold front arrives on Friday, which could bring conditions to near SCA levels as NW winds increase to around 20-25 kt and seas nearing 5 ft. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238319 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. A wavy frontal boundary will bring scattered thundershowers Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms relegated to the offshore waters. Temps will be very warm and muggy with lows around 5 degrees above climo, in the 75-80 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Wed...Heights/thicknesses rise on Thu, translating to hotter and drier conditions. Heat indices will be flirting with the 105 degree threshold range, but opted out of issuing heat headlines, as values will be brief and not widespread enough for a heat adv at this time. With the inc in thicknesses, much less covg of showers/storms are expected, with only a 20% chc of storms during the afternoon/evening hours, and mainly north of Hwy 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Friday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. An increase in moisture for Friday into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Friday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Friday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thu/... As of 111 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, though bouts of shra and ts will bring tempo IFR conditions in heavy rain and lowered cigs through this afternoon. Tonight, shra and storms diminish, with sct to bkn mid/high clouds and SSW breeze limiting fog and low stratus threat tonight. Very little if any convection on Thu as high builds. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 PM Wed...Swrly gradient a bit tighter this afternoon with winds of 10-20 kt, with gusts in the 20-24 kt range, and will cont through tonight. Seas of 2-4 feet will cont through tonight. A thermal gradient will develop on Thu as heat builds, and inc the swrly winds into the 15-25 kt range, and a SCA has been issued for the coastal waters as well as Pamlico, Croatan, Roanoke sounds for Thu afternoon through Thu night. Seas will build to 3-5 ft as a result. LONG TERM /Friday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-150-158-231. Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156. && $$ |
| #1238318 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 338 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern of afternoon/evening showers and storms continue today, but with less coverage. The current radar shows a few isolated showers across the area, with more scattered convection to the south in North Carolina. With better flow aloft, these showers are able to move, rather than the stationary storms from days past. Later today, a shortwave will move through the northern part of the Commonwealth, aiding in more scattered showers and storms in central VA and SE MD. The coverage looks to be overall less for the forecast area than the previous days, however with the saturated grounds, flash flood guidance remains low with most of the area only requiring an inch or less for flooding to occur. The moist air mass continues with PWAT values above 2" (well above normal) for the next few days. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible in the northern VA piedmont with damaging winds as the primary threat, as SPC has the NW counties in a marginal risk through tonight. Most convection should begin to dissipate as the daytime heat reduces, but a few lingering isolated showers are possible this evening. Temperatures are currently nearing the high in the upper 80s to near 90F. Tonight`s lows will be seasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat Advisories have been issued for central and southeastern VA and the Eastern Shore for Thursday as heat indices reach up to 107. Heat Advisories may be needed Friday as well. - Afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast. Hotter conditions return as temperatures at 850 mb reach 19-21 C and flow becomes more westerly. Heat indices are expected to reach up to 107 east of I-95 in VA, with values 100-105 elsewhere. Heat Advisories have been issued at this time for the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck, RIC metro, the peninsulas, and SE VA through 8 PM Thursday. Heat indices on Friday will also approach headline criteria, primarily in SE VA and NE NC, and Heat Advisories will likely be needed. Temperatures and dewpoints will then return to normal into the weekend. The next shortwave trough will move through the region on Thursday, aiding in the chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. More shear than the previous few days could allow these storms to potentially become more organized and marginal severe threat. The coverage of these storms and showers will likely be less than the last few days. On Friday, a substantial trough and cold front will approach the area. The drier airmass associated with it will stay to the north of the forecast area, and with the continued moist airmass with PWATs 2"+, higher coverage of showers and storms are likely on Friday. The front will likely stall before moving out of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers and storms once again. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week with the ridge possibly moving more to the west as surface high pressure moves over the New England region, which could allow slightly below average temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday... Primarily VFR conditions continue through the 18z TAF period outside of brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon due to CU. Additionally, a few isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible this afternoon before tapering off this evening. However, confidence in any given shower or storm hitting a local terminal is too low to reflect in the TAF. As such, have added PROB30s for PHF/ORF/ECG where confidence in nearby storms is a bit higher with VCSH at RIC/SBY where confidence in convection is lower. Clouds clear late tonight into Thu morning with CU developing late Thu morning into Thu afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be possible Thu mainly across the Piedmont. An unsettled pattern continues into early next week with daily chances for scattered showers/storms. The best chance for scattered storms is Fri and Sat afternoon as a series of cold fronts move through. && .MARINE... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and the VA coastal waters from tonight through Thursday afternoon. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this afternoon given a Bermuda high offshore. SW winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this afternoon will gradually increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (locally 25-30 kt across the Ches Bay) later this evening into Thu afternoon. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds increase to 90-100% across the Ches Bay with wind probs for 25 kt gusts increasing to 65- 90% across the Ches Bay and VA coastal waters. As such, have expanded the SCAs and now have SCAs from 10 PM this evening through 4 PM Thu afternoon for the Lower James and Ches Bay and 1 AM Thu through 1 PM Thu for the rest of the rivers and the VA coastal waters. Winds diminish to around 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt later Thu afternoon into Thu night ahead of an approaching cold front. Will note that SCAs may need to be extended into Thu night if models trend higher with the winds, however, confidence was too low to extended them that far at this time. Winds diminish to 5- 10 kt Fri behind the cold front and remain generally benign through the middle of next week given high pressure lingering over the East Coast. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue into early next week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. The best chance of storms at this time appears to be Fri afternoon/evening. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft tonight into Thu before subsiding to 1-2 ft by Fri. Cannot rule out a few 4-5 ft seas across the VA coastal waters early Thu. Will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches Thu and Fri. However, the northern beaches appear to be a high-end low rip risk given 3-4 ft waves with SW winds. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday... Flood Warnings for Farmville and Lawrenceville have been cancelled. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ064- 075>078-081>086-089-090-093-095>100-512-514>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637-652-654-656. && $$ |
| #1238317 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 219 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low rain chances will persist through Thursday morning. - Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. - NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the northern Gulf later today or tonight, giving it a 40% chance of development into a tropical system within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday through early Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Drier air has definitely filtered across Southeast TX and the GOES Total Precipitation Water imagery is currently showing PWs of 1.5" to 1.6" across much of the area and will help limit rain chances for today through Thursday morning. There is still some wiggle room for a quick shower to develop this afternoon, but coverage overall will be fairly isolated. The high temperatures are expected to be mostly in the lower 90s, but some locations could see highs reaching the mid 90s. The heat indices will stay in the lower 100s for much of the region. We will see moisture starting to recover sometime mid morning or early afternoon on Thursday as a warm moist airmass associated to the tropical disturbance currently located over the Florida Peninsula, begins to filter in from the east southeast. I did notice that although the NBM shows us fairly dry during the morning to early afternoon hours, a few vort maxes ejected westward from the disturbance could move over us during the late morning to late afternoon hours and may trigger some isolated showers/storms during that period. We will have to see if moisture and instability will be enough for rain development, however. By the evening to early night hours, the disturbance is progged to move westward, roughly over the LA coastal locations, and will continue to lead to a rise in low and mid level moisture over Southeast TX. We may start to see showers and thunderstorms developing/moving over the areas south of I-10 and east of I-45 by this time. We will see the shower and thunderstorm activity expand further west and northwest during the overnight to morning hours and is expected to further increase as we progress into Friday afternoon. This is when models show local PWs reaching the 2.0" to 2.5" range for much of the area, which could lead to period of moderate to heavy rainfall, in particular for areas near and east of I-45 and near and south of I-10. Ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas is possible. The rains could also affect your commute, thus, make sure to check the radar and local traffic before departing. PWs will decrease from late Friday into Saturday morning, and many areas could see PWs of 1.8" to 2.0" by Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we may have lower chances of rain on Saturday. The forecast currently is carrying PoPs of around 15-35% PoPs for Saturday. More details regarding the disturbance can be found in the Tropical Discussion below. Low rain chances are expected starting on Sunday as drier air moves into Southeast TX and persists through the mid week timeframe. High temperatures may increase also into the mid to upper 90s during the second half of the week. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning, becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening. Self && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet will continue for the next several days. Lower rain chances will persist through Thursday morning as drier air prevails over the region. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to increase as a tropical disturbance moves westward from the north-central Gulf waters and into the LA coastal region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of this disturbance. The 2PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook continued a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours. More information regarding the track and intensity will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates it. For this forecast package, I have continued to bring in slightly higher seas of around 4 feet for the offshore waters, but these heights can change within the next upcoming forecasts. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts. Cotto && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Not too many changes made to the previous tropical discussion. Satellite continues to depict an area of low pressure currently moving westward over the Florida Panhandle and is expected to move into the northeastern or north-central Gulf waters later today or tonight. Environmental conditions may be favorable for further development as the system continues to move over the waters and a tropical depression could form as it approaches the coast of LA on Thursday or Friday. There`s still uncertainty regarding the strength and track of this system, given that its unknown how far into the waters the system will be. More information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter can investigate it. Regardless of formation, the system could bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late Thursday into early Saturday. Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as well as the latest forecasts. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 93 75 93 77 / 0 0 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 91 80 91 79 / 0 0 10 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238316 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 318 PM AST Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the region through this evening due to a tropical wave. A Flood Advisory is in effect for Cabo Rojo and Lajas until 5:45 PM AST today. * Warmer temperatures and abundant moisture will elevate the heat risk for the next few days, with heat indexes likely to meet Heat Advisory Criteria. * Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust particles will promote hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and deteriorated air quality across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands tomorrow and Friday. * Increasing winds will lead to choppy seas and a moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday... The main feature affecting the islands today, a tropical wave, alongside diurnal heating and local effects will continue to promote shower activity over the region, with thunderstorms currently concentrating over the southwestern quadrant of PR. Radar estimated rainfall accumulations (as of 3 PM AST) detect 1 to 2 inches over south central to southwestern municipalities. Most of the region detected at least minimal rainfall estimated accumulations, with the USVI having up to 0.15 to 0.25 inches. During the late morning hours, before the rain and cloudiness became more widespread heat indices around 108 were detected over western coastal sectors, particularly over the SW quadrant which then saw relief (in terms of heat) with the above mentioned rain. High Heat indices around 105 degrees still persisted in areas without stronger shower activity. Mid to upper level high pressure continues to affect the region, limiting stronger shower and t-storm development. However with the tropical wave, showers will continue to be steered towards windward sectors of the islands tonight, with current convection over PR eventually dissipating and/or moving offshore during the evening. GOES-East detects a large plume of Saharan Dust (with moderate to high concentrations) behind the tropical wave currently affecting us. This will result in hazy skies, reduced visibilities and deteriorated air quality on Thursday and Friday, with lingering lower concentrations during the weekend (long term period). However, lingering moisture from the tropical wave will persist on Thursday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values reaching 1.8 to 1.9 inches. The seasonal pattern will continue during the period, although with this increased moisture on Thursday and with an approaching upper low on Friday. ENE steering flow will veer to become more southeasterly steering flow by tomorrow (still breezy) and then back to become easterly to possibly northeasterly on Friday. Showers will be steered towards windward locations, followed by afternoon convection (showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms) over sectors of western Puerto Rico and downwind from El Yunque and the US Virgin Islands. A risk to observe ponding of water in roads and poorly drainage areas, as well as localized flooding in urban areas, roads and small streams, will continue this evening and tonight and during the afternoons (mainly over W PR) during the rest of the period. 925 mb temperatures will remain at or above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas with heat indices above 100 degrees each day (Heat Advisories will probably be issued). Lows generally in the low 60s over the interior to mountains to the upper 70s or low 80s over coastal and urban areas. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... ./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 506 AM AST Wed Jul 16 2025/ During the long-term forecast period, the latest model guidance suggests that precipitable water content will generally range from near seasonal values to below average, with the exception of Sunday, which is showing above normal values of up to 1.9 inches. Generally, a TUTT-low and an induced low-level trough are expected to move across the northeastern Caribbean through the weekend, bringing an increase in shower activity. A disturbance is also expected to move across the region from Sunday into early next week. In general, these weather features will enhance early morning convection between the USVI and eastern sections of Puerto Rico, followed by afternoon thunderstorms over portions of the interior and western Puerto Rico. Early next week through Wednesday, a deep layer ridge building from the central Atlantic into the northeastern Caribbean will shift further west and displace the trough pattern. Mid-level moisture is expected to decrease, and rainfall will likely follow a more typical diurnal pattern driven by daytime heating and local effects. At this time, the flood risk during these days is expected to range from none to limited. Additionally, warm to hot temperatures are anticipated each day, likely triggering Heat Advisory conditions across most coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay hydrated, avoid outdoor activity during peak heat hours, wear light clothing, and check on vulnerable individuals and pets. && .AVIATION... (18z TAFs) Mostly VFR conds across all terminals. SHRA moving towards the islands can promote brief MVFR conditions, especially over TJPS late in the afternoon (also due to TSRA). Winds from the NE between 15 to 10 kts with higher gusts through 16/23z, later gradually decreasing and veering to become more ESE tomorrow. HZ is forecast for tomorrow, reducing visibilities over the terminals. && .MARINE... Showers and isolated thunderstorms due to a tropical wave will continue moving over the local waters and passages through Thursday morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will promote choppy seas across the regional waters through at least Thursday night; small craft should exercise caution. A Saharan Air Layer moving behind the tropical wave will promote hazy skies and reduce visibility on Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance is anticipated at the end of the weekend, potentially increasing shower activity across the waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... The moderate risk of rip currents will continue for northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix through Thursday. Beach conditions will gradually improve Friday into the weekend, as the rip current risk reduces over some areas except the north central beaches of Puerto Rico and St. Croix. Winds will increase again by Monday, elevating the risk of rip currents for most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers should exercise caution when visiting beaches under moderate risk due to possible life-threatening rip currents over the surf zone. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238315 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...Now through Wednesday... For the current issuance, flooding issues over most of our southern tier of counties along with a High Risk of Rip Currents continue to be the biggest issue, with a Heat Advisory possible in the coming week. First things first, an upper low located southwest of KAQQ at noontime is moving west over the northern Gulf on the south side of high pressure over the Southeast. This system is expected to move inland over southeast Louisiana tonight. Guidance is advertising some organization as the surface circulation moves away from the upper ridge, with southerly flow on the lee side of the system strengthening for Thursday through Friday in response. Precipitable h20 values rise to around 2.5" as Gulf moisture is pumped inland. Add in MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range (with soundings showing a skinnier profile in the instability), and some guidance indicating some added upper divergence, training, northward moving efficient rainers are expected, with water issues a possibility, especially over our southern tier of MS/AL/FL counties. Low level flow shifts from southerly to southwesterly Thursday into Friday, but the airmass over the forecast remains very moist into Friday night before drier air starts to move northeast across the forecast area. Flash Flood Guidance values are very high (1 HR amounts over 4" over most of the forecast area in this morning`s guidance), so any issues is expected to be from training cells. The biggest question is will convection later Thursday night though Friday bring additional rain to the areas that received the higher rain Thursday. Feel any issues will be localized and not needing a Flood Watch to be issued. For this weekend into the coming week, the upper level high pressure over the forecast area shifts west over the region. Moisture levels drop to around 2" over the weekend into the coming week. Guidance is advertising another upper level shortwave trough moving over the northern Gulf Wednesday, with moisture levels seeing an uptick ahead of the system, and with that, an uptick in rain chances mid week. Looking at temperatures, the increased rain coverage and attendant cloud cover will drop high temperature to below seasonal norms for Thursday and Friday. Upper 80s to around 90 expected with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 over most of the forecast area. With upper level high pressure over the Southeast, temperatures quickly rise to above seasonal norms by Monday, mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 102 to 107 degree range are expected for the beginning of the week. The uptick in moisture levels combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will bring Heat Indices rising above Heat Advisory levels by Tuesday. An increasing tidal cycle will work with increasing onshore swell from the moderate onshore flow to bring a High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday through Friday night. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk by Monday as the onshore swell decreases with the easing onshore flow. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weak low pressure system was advancing westward over the FL Big Bend and will continue westward through the afternoon bringing an increase in CIG bases 2-5 kft as the feature approaches. Expecting an increased coverage of SHRA/TSRA from east to west which will bring lower cigs. Vsbys briefly restricted with passage of more organized SHRA/TSRA. Gusty winds likely in and near convection will also become a hazard to approaches/departures. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A moderate to at times strong onshore flow is expected through the end of the week on the lee side of the exiting system. Light to at times moderate generally onshore flow returns over the weekend lasting into mid week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 88 76 89 75 92 75 94 / 60 90 60 90 20 70 10 50 Pensacola 78 87 79 90 79 92 79 94 / 60 80 60 80 20 60 10 40 Destin 80 89 81 91 81 92 81 94 / 60 80 50 70 10 40 10 30 Evergreen 74 91 74 92 73 95 74 96 / 20 80 20 70 10 50 10 30 Waynesboro 74 91 73 90 73 94 73 95 / 20 80 20 80 10 60 10 30 Camden 74 91 74 91 73 93 74 94 / 10 70 10 70 10 50 10 30 Crestview 74 89 74 92 74 94 74 96 / 30 90 30 80 10 60 0 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238314 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 310 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF peiod, but occasional instances of MVFR CIGs are possible due to clouds near FL025. Drier weather will remain in the beginning of the 18Z TAF period, but showers are expected to return to the vicinity of both terminals during the overnight hours. This could also lead to infrequent bouts of MVFR conditions. For now, we are leaning near 02Z for onset time of VCSH. Surface winds will remain out of the southeast near 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weather conditions have been a little mixed this morning, depending on where along the island chain you are located. Our KBYX radar has been tracking quite a bit of shower activity, particularly around the Middle and Upper Keys. A conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms moving from the Distant Straits, across the Middle and Upper Keys, and approaching the Florida peninsula has been persisting over the past few hours with almost no indication of diminishing anytime soon. The Alligator Reef WeatherFlow station reported a wind gust of 29 knots when a cell moved overhead just before 9 AM EDT. Naturally, we do not have any automated surface observations that have reported rainfall amounts, but radar derived estimates are showing storm total accumulations of approximately a few tenths of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall has fallen in the Middle and Upper Keys. There are a couple of pockets of rainfall estimates closer to an inch, but these may have been displaced from island communities. GOES-19 lightning detection has detected a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area as well, but not every shower has developed into a thunderstorm. This just means it will continue to be difficult to pick which cells will grow into thunderstorms, and which ones will continue to just be nuisance showers. The 12Z sounding from this morning does show a very wet profile with a calculated PWAT value of 2.16" coming in just below the daily max of 2.21". Below 500 mb, ample moisture, a lack on inhibition, and a veering wind profile favor an environment that can support continued activity for now, so we will go ahead an maintain the 60 percent PoPs inherited form the overnight shift, but it may be a few more hours before the radar reflects these elevated PoPs. The forecast is unfolding as expected, so no updates or changes are needed at this time. Expect high temperatures today in the upper 80s with southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, and continued showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist across the Florida Keys local waters today with coverage gradually increasing later this evening. Stronger pockets of storms will be capable of producing locally gusty and erratic winds, suddenly building and confused seas, and reduced visibility from blinding downpours. From synopsis, an area of low pressure will continue to slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend, easterly breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238313 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity peak today but lasts into Thursday. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday before relief from the heat arrives this weekend. Drier and more seasonable weather is ahead next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 215 AM Update Key Messages: * Peak of heat and humidity today. Upper ridge builds into southern New England today which brings rising heights and warming temperatures aloft, making this the hottest day of the week. Heat indices this afternoon are expected to top out around 100 degrees in many areas away from immediate coast where onshore winds will keep it slightly cooler (but still hot). Along E MA coast, gradient remains weak enough to support sea breezes for a few hours from later this morning into early afternoon, then we should see winds shift back to S/SW which will boost temperatures there into 90s. Speaking of S/SW flow, we remain in the usual summertime pattern of nighttime and early morning low clouds/fog near South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands which should persist today and through the end of the week. Despite a lot of instability, ridge will also help suppress convective development as forecast soundings show a strong cap, but it`s possible we see a stray shower or even a thunderstorm form toward sunset as boundary layer cools off just a little, similar to what we saw yesterday across interior. However, we don`t have a lifting mechanism strong enough to overcome mid level cap so it will be difficult to see anything organized or potentially severe. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... 215 AM Update Key Messages: * Showers/non-severe storms possible overnight into Thu AM. * Severe storms possible late Thu afternoon/evening. * One more day of dangerous heat and humidity Thu. Lead short wave over Ohio Valley heads east tonight as upper ridge becomes suppressed and retreats offshore. It will provide larger scale lift upon an airmass that is already unstable with increasing PWATs, which should result in showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms overnight into Thu morning, especially across western/central MA and CT. High-res models show a few potential outcomes, either an area of weakening convection heading into southern New England overnight, or what`s been called the "7-10 split" where convection splits into two areas where one lifts to our north and the other shifts south, leaving much of the area dry in between. In either case, none of the convective parameters are favorable for severe weather, but certainly the anomalous moisture could bring brief downpours. Once short wave heads offshore later in the morning, subsidence in its wake should prevent any additional activity from developing until the approach of the cold front later in the afternoon and evening. This is the main time frame of concern for severe weather, especially in western/central MA and northern CT, as environment should feature plenty of instability with surface-based CAPE over 2000 J/kg, sufficient 0-6km shear of 25-30kt, decent mid level lapse rates, and strong 0-1 km shear in excess of 150 m2s2. Most of the high-res models show potential for discrete storms ahead of front with potential for wind damage and even a few tornadoes, before eventually merging into small lines or segments capable of producing wind damage. That said, there are timing differences among hi-res models and ensemble members with some showing an earlier start to afternoon development. Should that verify, that would lessen the potential for severe weather since most of the parameters noted above occur later in day, closer to cold front itself, and are less favorable during the early to mid afternoon hours. Something to keep in mind which hopefully gets resolved in later runs. Aside from the convection, we will have one more day of dangerous heat and humidity, although extent of cloud cover could limit afternoon heating. For now, we are expecting heat indices well into 90s once again, but probably not as high as what we expect today. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Updated 215 AM Key Messages: * Still hot but lower humidity Fri. * Relief from heat arrives this weekend Once cold front moves offshore Fri, W/NW flow will bring drier air into region but airmass really doesn`t cool off sufficiently until this weekend, when we should see temperatures more typical of mid July which will last into early next week. Overall, dry weather is expected but the front may return north by Sunday which would bring scattered showers/storms, before another short wave kicks everything out to sea Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Through 00z Thursday: High confidence. VFR, with IFR-LIFR stratus adjacent to the New England south- coastal waters. A pop-up SHRA possible but largely dry weather prevails. S to SW winds around 10 kt, although with SE seabreezes flipping to SW by 20-21z. Tonight: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on both the timing and on SHRA coverage. Mainly VFR, although should see IFR-LIFR stratus and fog returning northward to areas near/south of I-95 and in the CT Valley between 00-08z. Risk for warm frontal SHRA/rogue TS between 08z to 13-15z Thu, but uncertainty on how widespread the shower threat may be. PROB30s included in TAFs given this uncertainty but may need to opt for TEMPOs or include as prevailing FM groups in later issuances. S winds 5-10 kt. Thursday: Moderate confidence. Warm frontal SHRA/possible TS moving eastward and offshore thru 15z Thu. Sub-VFR cloudiness likely to continue until then as well, and we should then see conditions improving to at least SCT-BKN VFR ceilings. Risk for TSRA / possible +TSRA for western New England TAFs (ORH, BAF, BDL) after 20z, but for now will message with PROB30s give uncertainties on coverage. TSRA risk further east is less likely, if any develop at all. S/SW winds around 10-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Thursday Night: High confidence. Cold front moves through the TAFs; any TSRA should weaken to showers after 02z, with conditions becoming all VFR at all airports. Winds become W/NW around 10-15 kt with low 20s-kt gusts post-frontal. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA for next several days, though outer waters E and S of Cape Cod/Islands may come close ahead of cold front Thu night. Main concern through end of week is areas of fog during nighttime and morning hours, in addition to scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thu morning and possibly again Thu night. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238312 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Deep moisture lingers through Thursday, supporting high daily rain chances (60-80%). Highest coverage is expected across the interior. - Rain chances then trend near to below normal into late week and the weekend, before increasing once again into early next week. - Hot and humid conditions will prevail, with peak heat index values reaching 102-107 degrees through late week and potentially reaching Heat Advisory thresholds (at or above 108 degrees) for portions of the area this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Currently-Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms already developing early this afternoon along and inland of the east coast sea breeze. Coverage should continue to increase, becoming scattered to numerous across the interior through late afternoon/early evening as boundary shifts inland and with moist airmass (PW values ~2.0") in place. This activity will move at a steady pace toward the N/NW, with a few stronger storms being capable of producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. As this activity winds down into the evening, mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight. However, will maintain low end rain chances (around 20-30 percent) along the Treasure Coast tonight, as isolated showers and possibly a storm or two may still move onshore. It will remain mild overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. Thursday-Friday...Subtropical ridge axis will remain near to north of the area through late week, maintaining surface winds out of the southeast. A wave of deeper moisture (PW values of 2-2.3") lifts northward across the area tomorrow, and should lead to another day of higher shower/storm coverage. This activity will initiate first across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in the morning with scattered to numerous showers and storms then developing and lifting N/NW across the remainder of east central FL through the afternoon. Rain chances will range around 60-80 percent Thursday, with greatest coverage forecast across the interior. Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms, producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. PW values decrease into Friday to around 1.6- 1.8 inches as drier air moves into the area. This will lead to near to below normal afternoon shower and storm coverage to end the work week. Rain chances will range from 20-30 percent along the coast and up to 40-50 percent inland. Hot and humid conditions forecast each day, with highs in the low 90s Thursday and low to mid 90s on Friday. Peak afternoon heat index values will range from 102-107 degrees each day. Overnight lows will continue in the 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Broad mid level ridging builds westward across central Florida through the weekend, with Atlantic ridge axis settling south across the area. Heat and humidity impacts look to increase into the weekend, with highs in the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland (potentially nearing upper 90s across portions of the interior) on Sunday. Peak heat index values are forecast to therefore rise, and may reach Heat Advisory thresholds (heat index values of 108-112 degrees), mainly for portions of the interior. Ridging is forecast to break down by Monday, but hot and humid conditions will persist into early next week. Some areas may see relief from the heat in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms, but overall coverage of this activity will be near to below normal into the weekend. Models solutions diverge some into Monday and Tuesday, but a wetter pattern may return into early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Tonight-Monday...Subtropical ridge remains in control of the weather pattern over the next several days, with generally favorable boating conditions forecast. The ridge axis will be near to north of the area through late week, settle southward across central FL this weekend, and then continue south of the area into early next week. Southeast winds around 10-15 knots will continue across the waters through tonight and Thursday, and will then diminish to around 5-10 knots into Friday. Winds speeds remain relatively light around 5-10 knots through the weekend out of the S/SE, and then become predominately offshore into early next week. Seas will generally range from 2-3 feet, potentially falling to 1-2 feet on Monday. Developing scattered showers and storms are forecast over the waters into tonight and Thursday morning. However, coverage of this activity looks to decrease and be below normal into late this week and through this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Quick northward-moving showers and a few storms have brought very brief MVFR impacts to coastal terminals early this afternoon. As the east coast sea breeze drifts inland, additional development along boundary collisions will return with a more typical summertime thunderstorm pattern anticipated today as the surface low that brought impacts to the area yesterday sits offshore from the FL Big Bend/Panhandle. Added TEMPO to coastal sites thru 20Z, then beginning after 20Z for interior terminals for the sea breeze collision. MVFR/IFR in convection. Activity diminishes by 00Z with persistent S/SE flow overnight as the peninsula remains sandwiched between the Gulf low and Atlantic high. Showers and storms again tomorrow after 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 10 40 MCO 76 92 76 95 / 30 80 10 40 MLB 78 90 77 91 / 20 70 10 30 VRB 75 91 74 91 / 20 60 10 20 LEE 76 91 77 93 / 30 80 10 50 SFB 76 92 77 94 / 30 80 10 40 ORL 77 92 77 95 / 30 80 10 40 FPR 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238311 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Upper trough and weak surface low over the eastern Gulf off of the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Most of the associated convection remains offshore, although a few showers have developed in the last hour near the Mississippi-Alabama border. Temperatures were in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values around 105 degrees. The main concern through Thursday night will be the potential for heavy rainfall, especially along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor. While the morning soundings around the area indicated precipitable water values were near 1.8 inches (near climo), as the trough moves westward, those values are expected to increase to 2.2 to 2.5 inches tomorrow, which will be above the 90th percentile. Anything close to 2.5 inches will be at the top end of the chart. At this point, significant development of the low pressure isn`t expected, but can`t be entirely ruled out. The upper trough axis is expected to track westward along the coast tonight and Thursday, and be over western Louisiana by Thursday evening. Clusters of showers and storms will move across the area, mainly late tonight and during the day Thursday. While it won`t rain all the time over the next 36 hours, the heaviest cells will certainly be capable of producing 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour, and 3 to 6 inches by Friday morning, especially south of I-10, with isolated higher amounts likely. If that falls in the wrong places, notably urban areas with poor drainage, flash flooding is certainly possible, and will hold the Flood Watch in place as currently depicted. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 With the upper trough to the west of us on Friday, the threat for organized heavy rainfall may be somewhat diminished, but precipitable water values will still remain around 2 inches, and cell movements are expected to be slower. That means the potential for flooding continues on Friday and Friday evening. Some indications that Saturday could remain at risk before ridging builds back into the area. Beyond Saturday, we`ll be back in a more "normal" summer convective pattern with isolated to scattered afternoon convection, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s before convective development cuts off heating. If we reach mid 90s, with the ground fairly wet, that would indicate that Heat Advisories may be necessary from Sunday onward. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions currently in place. Any convective threat this afternoon will primarily be at terminals south of Interstate 10, excluding KBTR and KMCB. Lower conditions expected toward sunrise Thursday as upper trough approaches, with MVFR to IFR conditions likely. Expect all terminals to have at least occasional flight interruptions during the day tomorrow. Perhaps some improvement beyond sunset tomorrow evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Still much uncertainty whether any tropical development occurs with the trough and surface low in the eastern Gulf. Current expectation is that sustained winds remain below 20 knots, which would mean only Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be needed tomorrow afternoon/evening into the first half of Friday. The more significant threat would be thunderstorms producing locally higher winds/seas. Coastal flooding is currently not expected to be an issue, as winds aren`t sufficient to bring tides up more than a foot or so, and we are just exiting the neap portion of the cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 90 74 88 / 30 80 30 90 BTR 77 90 76 88 / 40 90 50 90 ASD 74 88 74 88 / 70 90 60 90 MSY 78 88 78 90 / 70 90 60 90 GPT 75 89 77 88 / 80 90 70 90 PQL 74 89 75 88 / 80 80 70 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-057-058-071-081>086. Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071. Flood Watch through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238310 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The tropical low known as Invest AL93 is moving west this afternoon just offshore the Emerald Coast. It will not develop into a tropical depression before getting well west of our forecast area, if at all. Nonetheless, we will be on its eastern flank through Thursday. So regardless of development, we will be in deep southerly flow, and the air mass will remain very moist. PW values of 2+ inches will be common. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are dotting the region this afternoon, and most places are getting at least a few passing showers this afternoon. With tropical rain processes in play and respectable moisture transport, rainfall rates can be impressive, even in lower-topped convective cells. Where you get higher-topped convection, torrential rainfall rates can be expected. If cells start to line up in more solid confluent or curved bands, then flooding would become a concern. So look for ongoing convection to fade quickly late this afternoon and early this evening, as convection works over the inland air mass. Convection will reignite late tonight and on Thursday morning over the bathwater-warm Gulf waters. Quick southerly flow will push convection onshore and into coastal communities well before sunrise. Convection will start to spread further inland as soon as we pass sunrise, spreading north of the FL state line by late morning. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The area of low pressure over the Gulf will have moved westward out of our waters and an upper level ridge will be building to our east. The Bermuda high, also to our east, will continue with southerly flow for the short term. During the day Friday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. PWATs will be around 2 inches, so heavy downpours will be possible with any storms. PoPs for Friday range from 60-80 percent, with highest chances along and south of I-10. Temperatures on Friday will be subdued from the rain and clouds, with highs in the mid-90s and heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will continue to build over the weekend into the start of next week. Temperatures will be gradually increasing while PoPs values will gradually decrease. However, PoPs will become more diurnally driven with the afternoon sea breeze. Warming temperatures will bring back heat advisories for this weekend through next week, but we will be monitoring based on how much mixing is expected during the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s for the highs, and mid-70s for the overnight lows. PoPs this weekend range from 30-50 percent, then increase to around 50-70 percent for the start of the work week as PWATs increase with added tropical moisture moving in from the East Coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Deep layer southerly flow will prevail for the next 24 hours, to the east of a low that will be moving toward the north-central Gulf. This will keep the air mass very moist. Quite a few showers and thunderstorms are spotting the region this afternoon. They should diminish late this afternoon and evening. Storms will rebuild over the Gulf waters tonight, spreading onto the coast before sunrise, then spreading inland during the course of the morning. So the mention of thunder in the TAFs is fashioned after these trends, with TEMPO groups indicating highest confidence periods for thunder. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Southerly breezes will increase over the waters tonight, becoming fresh on Thursday morning as we get squeezed between departing low pressure to our west and high pressure east of Florida. The summertime Bermuda ridge axis will expand westward on Friday and Saturday across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, persisting through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue for the foreseeable future. Areas of high dispersion are expected on Thursday afternoon due to enhanced southerly transport winds. A warming trend will get underway on Friday, with much above normal temperatures starting Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Isolated flash flooding will be a concern through Friday, mainly over our FL counties. Over the next 24-30 hours, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with the I-75 corridor in Georgia being the driest. If convection trains onto the coast, then expect a quick 4 to 6 inches of rain somewhere in our FL counties. These higher amounts would bring isolated flash flooding. Lesser amounts could still bring less serious nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the weekend, then build during the first half of next week. Most any summer thunderstorm is capable of intense rainfall rates that can lead to short-lived nuisance flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 91 76 93 / 30 50 10 80 Panama City 78 89 79 91 / 70 80 40 70 Dothan 75 91 74 95 / 20 60 0 60 Albany 74 94 74 96 / 10 40 0 60 Valdosta 75 95 75 96 / 10 40 10 60 Cross City 73 93 74 93 / 30 60 10 60 Apalachicola 79 87 80 89 / 70 80 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday night for FLZ108. High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Thursday night for FLZ112. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238309 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 213 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through this weekend. Temperatures will increase Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as high pressure strengthens aloft and a dangerous combination of heat and humidity may develop. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Two small but important changes will take place in the weather pattern over the next 24 hours. The first will be 500 mb high pressure centered just south of Bermuda starting to move westward toward Florida. Our 500 mb heights will rise by ~20 meters by tomorrow afternoon with mid level warming and drying anticipated. This should act to reduce (but not eliminate) airmass convection that we`ve seen dot the area the last couple of days. I`ll still hang onto a slight chance of showers and t-storms along and inland from the seabreeze with PoPs 20 percent or less. The other item of note is an area of surface low pressure moving from the Great Lakes tonight northeastward along the US/Canadian border on Thursday. The pressure falls associated with this feature will extend as far south as the Mid Atlantic states and will help to veer our surface wind from south to southwest. This should hold the seabreeze boundary closer to the coast Thursday and delay the arrival of cooler marine air into cities like Conway, Wilmington, and Burgaw. The overall warmer airmass, fewer diurnal storms, and an inhibited seabreeze should allow temperatures to rise into the 93-95 range inland with heat indices approaching 105. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A westward expansion of the mid-upper ridge axis is anticipated during this period, which will subsequently bring more dry air and subsidence into play going into the weekend, along with higher max temps and less cloud cover. Thus, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for Friday and Saturday as max temps reach into the mid-upper 90s amidst dew points in the low-mid 70s away from the coast. Dry air and subsidence beneath the ridge axis will contribute to more isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage, resulting in mainly low-chance PoPs across the area. Lows in the mid- upper 70s will continue. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-level troughing well north of the forecast area is expected to nudge heights down later in the weekend as the ridge axis is pushed further westward. Early next week, guidance shows this troughing digging into the western Atlantic, setting up a northwest flow regime over the Carolinas. Although some dry air and subsidence will linger, moisture supplied by daily upstream convection will help to reduce the amount of dry air and keep multi-layered clouds frequently in the sky. In addition, depending on how far south the western Atlantic troughing reaches, and where the ridge axis parks itself to the west, shortwave energy riding down the east side of the ridge may yield one or more convective complexes originating from the higher terrain reaching the forecast area. Near the surface, high pressure is expected to shift over the Gulf, causing winds to be more southwesterly to westerly. Thus, the sea breeze should also become more active and stay nearer to the coast early next week, leading to higher PoPs across the area after this weekend. Temperatures will initially be abnormally hot for this time of year before settling back towards normal, with highs in the mid-upper 90s on Sunday, nudging into the mid-90s on Monday, then low 90s or upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid-upper 70s are still expected as dew points remain in the mid-upper 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms developing within a tropical airmass will continue for several more hours before cooling temperatures and stabilization occurs this evening. Within rain cores IFR conditions are occurring, although frisky movement of convection to the north-northeast means few locations will see low visibility for longer than 20 minutes. There is a high potential for impacts at KFLO and KLBT through 22z, with a moderate potential for MVFR visibility or ceilings along the coast where fewer and generally less intense shower activity may move onshore through the afternoon. Clearing skies and dry weather should develop tonight with only a low potential for ground fog to bring MVFR visibility to KCRE and KFLO. VFR conditions are expected to continue after daybreak Thursday with fewer showers or thunderstorms popping up during the day. Extended Outlook...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may bring brief ceiling and visibility impacts Friday through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Coverage may increase Monday as a trough of low pressure approaches from the north. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Bermuda High Pressure offshore will maintain a southerly wind across the Carolinas tonight, veering more southwesterly on Thursday as pressures fall across the Mid Atlantic states. There will likely be fewer showers developing across the ocean tonight versus the last two nights as the atmosphere aloft becomes warmer and drier. Wind speeds should average 10-15 knots outside of local seabreeze enhancement which could approach 20 knots Thursday afternoon in the Myrtle Beach vicinity and north of Cape Fear. Dominant waves should be 6 seconds period from the south with sea heights averaging 3 to 4 feet. Thursday night through Monday... Bermuda high pressure will maintain steady southwesterly flow over the waters through the weekend with daily enhancements due to the sea breeze, although gusts should stay just shy of SCA criteria. After the weekend, Bermuda high pressure splits with one smaller high centering over the Gulf and another displaced into the central Atlantic. The result should be weaker winds that generally favor westerly, but see a southerly turn during the day due to the sea breeze. Waves will stem from a combination of southerly wind waves around 2-3 ft at 5 sec and southeasterly swell around 1-2 ft with a period around 8 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238308 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 210 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 With the strong south/southeasterly flow, the prime afternoon activity is beginning to shift inland and away from a majority of our eastern metro corridor. There will be the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms for the metro, but the busiest time for weather has passed. With the diurnal heating and southeasterly winds, there is potential for some strong thunderstorms this afternoon across our interior and Gulf Coast, especially near Lake Okeechobee. Thankfully most active weather is moving much quicker, but with potential for an inch or two of rainfall, any slow-moving storms will be monitored closely. An isolated storm may lead to poor drainage and urban flooding. Additional hazards include frequent lightning, gusty, erratic winds, and heavy downpours. A look into the end of the week and weekend ahead...we may be looking at our first need for a heat advisory of the season. The most recent forecast model guidance suggests with the humidity levels and warming temperatures, our local heat indices will be approaching our need to issue heat advisories. We will be keeping a close eye on models in the days to come. More updates to come. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast. Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today. Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise. This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western half of South Florida. On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a bit less than today (Wednesday). The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if they happen) would be fairly isolated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while, it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness. To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible as scattered showers and thunderstorms at the east coast TAF sites early this afternoon. These showers and storms will continue to impact the interior and Gulf coast off and on through the evening. These storms can also bring gusty and erratic winds. Overnight, winds will become light and variable along with mostly VFR conditions and a break from the active weather until tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 There will be an elevated risk of rip currents along the Palm Beach coast tomorrow, with the potential to reach high risk for the entire Atlantic Coast for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 90 81 91 / 40 50 10 20 West Kendall 77 90 78 91 / 40 50 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 92 81 93 / 40 60 10 20 Homestead 80 89 80 91 / 40 50 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 81 90 / 40 60 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 81 89 81 91 / 40 60 10 20 Pembroke Pines 82 94 82 94 / 40 60 10 20 West Palm Beach 80 90 79 91 / 30 60 10 10 Boca Raton 80 91 79 92 / 40 60 10 10 Naples 77 92 77 94 / 40 80 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238307 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 156 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This Afternoon and Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will persist in the upper levels while high pressure centered over the southeastern states dominates at the surface. A tropical-like airmass will remain in place, with SPC Mesoanalysis showing PWAT values between 1.9" and 2.1". Onshore flow will continue to usher in showers with an occasional grumble of thunder off of the Atlantic waters. The 12Z HREF appears to have a decent handle on the current radar trends, indicating that shower activity will begin to wane around 4/5PM and remaining dry through the overnight period. Temperatures this afternoon have reached into the low 90s across the region, with some locations reaching heat index values of 100-103F. The short-lived shower activity has kept heat index values in check though, providing a brief moment of relief from the hot and muggy conditions. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with mid 70s inland and around 80 at the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong deep layered ridge will continue to gradually build Thursday through Saturday, bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions. Friday and Saturday will feature highs in the mid/upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, and heat indices topping 108 in some places and the dry air/subsidence aloft limits afternoon convection. We could need Heat Advisories for part of the area both days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Sunday the forecast becomes more uncertain as H5 heights begin to slowly fall. Well above normal temps and heat index values in the 105-110 range could persist, but are very dependent on afternoon convection which, based on the upper pattern, will likely be greater in coverage that previous days. The upper ridge axis will shift west of the area early next week, allowing some shortwave energy to rotate in from the north. This is expected to result in an increase in convective coverage Monday and Tuesday, with diurnal trends most likely. Toasty conditions will continue into Monday, with Heat Advisories again possible. Temps expected to trend closer to normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will prevail through the 18Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. VCSH has been included at all three TAF sites into this evening as showers continue to stream onshore. No TEMPO groups including any restrictions have been included in the 18Z TAFs as confidence is very low on direct impacts to the terminals. Overall the precipitation will generally be thunder-free, however a grumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out. Shower activity will wane with nightfall, and likely remain rain-free through the overnight period. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening hours. && .MARINE... Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight: High pressure will dominate across the marine waters through the rest of today and through the overnight period. Generally 10 to 15 knots is expected, with the flow transitioning from S/SE to S/SW overnight. Seas should average 2 to 3 ft. Isolated to scattered showers will persist across the waters into this evening, with showers diminishing into the overnight period. High pressure will prevail Thursday through Monday, maintaining typical summertime weather in the marine area. No headlines expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238306 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - An unsettled pattern continues today but with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. GOES water vapor channels depict upper ridging building into the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a shortwave trough that is now offshore, which was responsible (when combined with deep rich moisture) for showers/tstms with heavy rain later Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. There is still potentially a subtle boundary lingering over central VA this morning, with some stratus clouds remaining over the area, cutting off at the Blue Ridge mountains. A (convectively induced) shortwave trough lifts NW of the region today across WV/western PA with the upper ridge axis in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, PW values remain >2" (130-140% of normal). Showers/tstms should develop across the higher terrain, with the general consensus amongst the CAMs to dip this activity SE toward central VA and SE MD by later this aftn and evening, with some earlier development along the western shore of the Ches. Bay and SE VA. Convective coverage should be less than yesterday. However, there are many areas vulnerable to heavy rain and the northern half of the area in in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. An isolated strong tstm is possible across the NW counties with a marginal severe risk (for damaging wind gusts) over the northern piedmont counties of the FA. Seasonally hot and quite humid with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F. Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate later this evening. Otherwise, warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat and humidity build Thursday and Friday with Heat Advisories possible. The upper flow becomes westerly Thursday with 850mb temperatures rising to 19-21C. This should support highs in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s during peak heating due to recent wet conditions. This should yield heat indices in the 100-105F range W to 105+F E. Heat advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area, especially along and E of the I-95 corridor. A shortwave trough slides across the northern Mid- Atlantic later Thursday afternoon, and this could trigger a few showers/tstms across the northern tier of the area. There will be a little more shear Thursday, so any tstms could become more organized and pose at least a marginal severe threat. Warm and humid Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. A more substantial trough and cold front push from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Thursday night into Friday. A milder and drier airmass will remain well N of the region, but the associated cold front is progged to drop into the local area Friday. This will interact with an airmass with PW values >2" and mid 70s surface dewpoints. Therefore, increased coverage of showers/tstms is possible by Friday. The primary threats will be locally heavy rain and isolated strong wind gusts as 30-35kt of 500mb flow could result in better storm organization. Continued hot and humid, with 105+F heat indices forecast across SE VA and NE NC where heat advisories may eventually be needed. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers/tstms. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week, but the 16/00z EPS/GEFS each retrograde the ridge to the west as lower 500mb heights develop over New England and Atlantic Canada, which could generally result in highs in the mid/upper 80s to near 90F. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday... Primarily VFR conditions continue through the 18z TAF period outside of brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon due to CU. Additionally, a few isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible this afternoon before tapering off this evening. However, confidence in any given shower or storm hitting a local terminal is too low to reflect in the TAF. As such, have added PROB30s for PHF/ORF/ECG where confidence in nearby storms is a bit higher with VCSH at RIC/SBY where confidence in convection is lower. Clouds clear late tonight into Thu morning with CU developing late Thu morning into Thu afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be possible Thu mainly across the Piedmont. An unsettled pattern continues into early next week with daily chances for scattered showers/storms. The best chance for scattered storms is Fri and Sat afternoon as a series of cold fronts move through. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday morning. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be 10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1 PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon. However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe. Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through most of the weekend. Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4 ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today. The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the surf forecast for now. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early this afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest this morning. Additionally, Lawrenceville may touch minor flood later this morning. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238305 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 155 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Deep moisture lingers through Thursday, supporting high daily rain chances (60-80%). Highest coverage is expected across the interior. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. - Temperatures warm Friday and into the weekend, with peak heat index values reaching 102-107 degrees. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Today... The Atlantic high builds toward central Florida today as invest 93L moves westward along the northeast Gulf coast. Southeast winds develop and increase to 10-15 mph as a modest pressure gradient is established. High moisture lingers in the low to mid levels while soundings suggest a drier airmass beginning to advect above 700mb. More sunshine and surface heating combined with sufficient low level moisture should allow for rounds showers and storms this afternoon. Southeast winds should generally keep coverage highest across the interior (60-70%) with drier forecast trends focused near and east of I-95. While more organized tall storm growth could be hindered by poor mid level lapse rates and dry air aloft, steep low level lapse rates should be supportive for quick updrafts. Isolated strong storms which can overcome poor mid levels and mix with drier air aloft will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-50 mph, and small hail. Temperatures return near normal today with highs mostly ranging the upper 80s to low 90s. Areas which see limited shower and storm activity could see peak heat index values between 100-105 degrees this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures (L-M70s) remain mild with onshore flow. Thursday... A wave of moisture advects from the Bahamas on Thursday keeping one more day of above normal rain chances. Southeast winds hold under the influence of the Atlantic ridge axis. While onshore moving showers and storms will be possible along the coast in the late morning and early afternoon hours, steering flow should favor the greatest coverage across the interior in the afternoon and evening (70-80%). Overall storm parameters remain similar to what is forecast today, and isolated stronger storms will be capable of lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45-50 mph, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s with heat index values increasing between 102-107 degrees. Friday-Tuesday... Broad mid level ridging builds westward across central Florida through the weekend. High temperatures gradually increase into Sunday, spreading the low to mid 90s each day. Ridging is forecast to break down by Monday allowing temperatures to relax slightly. While a drier air column is expected, continued onshore flow should keep surface moisture in place. This will result in peak heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria this weekend, particularly on Sunday. Some areas may see relief from the heat in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms. Models solutions diverge Monday and Tuesday with hints of a wetter pattern returning into next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The Atlantic ridge axis settles across the local waters through late week. South to southeast winds around 10-15 kts today and tomorrow slacken some by Friday. Deep moisture will keep high rain chances in place through Thursday with a more seasonal pattern of showers and storms returning Friday and into the weekend. Seas 2-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Quick northward-moving showers and a few storms have brought very brief MVFR impacts to coastal terminals early this afternoon. As the east coast sea breeze drifts inland, additional development along boundary collisions will return with a more typical summertime thunderstorm pattern anticipated today as the surface low that brought impacts to the area yesterday sits offshore from the FL Big Bend/Panhandle. Added TEMPO to coastal sites thru 20Z, then beginning after 20Z for interior terminals for the sea breeze collision. MVFR/IFR in convection. Activity diminishes by 00Z with persistent S/SE flow overnight as the peninsula remains sandwiched between the Gulf low and Atlantic high. Showers and storms again tomorrow after 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 10 40 MCO 76 92 76 95 / 30 80 10 40 MLB 78 90 77 91 / 20 70 10 30 VRB 75 91 74 91 / 20 60 10 20 LEE 76 91 77 93 / 30 80 10 50 SFB 76 92 77 94 / 30 80 10 40 ORL 77 92 77 95 / 30 80 10 40 FPR 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238304 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 149 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .DISCUSSION... A southeast/south low-level flow is in place across the local area this afternoon as low pressure (AL93) moves westward along the northern Gulf coast region. Showers and storms have been ongoing over the Gulf since this morning and these should increase in coverage across inland areas through the rest of the afternoon and evening. This flow pattern continues Thursday, though moisture looks to be higher and thus would favor higher overall storm coverage. A more typical summer pattern returns starting Friday and continuing into next week as ridging builds back in over the area. Looks like some relatively drier air moves in through the weekend, decreasing rain chances a bit, but still enough for storms each day, then some models are showing a larger increase in moisture early next week which would suggest another couple of heavy-rain-threat days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the region and could affect any terminals through the afternoon and evening and will keep TEMPO groups in place to account for this. A quiet overnight is expected, then storm coverage is expected to be higher for tomorrow afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Southeast to south winds will continue over the waters through the next few days, approaching cautionary levels this afternoon and tonight, but otherwise staying below headlines. Daily showers and storms are expected, with locally higher winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 92 79 94 / 20 70 30 50 FMY 76 93 77 95 / 20 80 20 60 GIF 76 94 77 96 / 20 70 10 50 SRQ 76 92 76 94 / 20 60 30 50 BKV 72 93 73 94 / 20 70 20 50 SPG 78 89 79 91 / 30 60 40 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1238303 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 151 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast. Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today. Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise. This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western half of South Florida. On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a bit less than today (Wednesday). The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if they happen) would be fairly isolated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while, it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness. To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible as scattered showers and thunderstorms at the east coast TAF sites early this afternoon. These showers and storms will continue to impact the interior and Gulf coast off and on through the evening. These storms can also bring gusty and erratic winds. Overnight, winds will become light and variable along with mostly VFR conditions and a break from the active weather until tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 There will be an elevated risk of rip currents along the Palm Beach coast tomorrow, with the potential to reach high risk for the entire Atlantic Coast for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 90 81 91 / 40 50 10 20 West Kendall 77 90 78 91 / 40 50 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 92 81 93 / 40 60 10 20 Homestead 80 89 80 91 / 40 50 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 81 90 / 40 60 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 81 89 81 91 / 40 60 10 20 Pembroke Pines 82 94 82 94 / 40 60 10 20 West Palm Beach 80 90 79 91 / 30 60 10 10 Boca Raton 80 91 79 92 / 40 60 10 10 Naples 77 92 77 94 / 40 80 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238301 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However, it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday. Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory; however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing one. Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land) before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow from the invest begins. The switch will flip rather quick as we move from wet and soggy to hot and sweaty. As whatever this system becomes slowly moves onshore across Louisiana, the upper ridge will quickly build over the area in its place allowing for the furnace to turn up. With increasing subsidence, expect rain chances to decrease through the weekend and into early next week but temperatures and heat indices will go up. Legit heat advisory material will be possible during this period with the combination of remnant moisture from the tropical system and the subsidence from the ridge combine to make the great gulf coast pressure cooker. Expect high heat risk days for most of the area Sunday through Tuesday and potentially extending into the middle part of the week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weak low pressure system was advancing westward over the FL Big Bend and will continue westward through the afternoon bringing an increase in CIG bases 2-5 kft as the feature approaches. Expecting an increased coverage of SHRA/TSRA from east to west which will bring lower cigs. Vsbys briefly restricted with passage of more organized SHRA/TSRA. Gusty winds likely in and near convection will also become a hazard to approaches/departures. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An increasing moderate to strong southeasterly flow develops on Wednesday then becomes southerly through Friday as a low pressure system may move across the northern Gulf. Southwesterly flow expected for Saturday as the low passes to our west. Please continue to follow the National Hurricane Center`s information on any possible tropical development. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 88 76 89 75 92 75 94 / 60 90 60 90 20 70 10 50 Pensacola 78 87 79 90 79 92 79 94 / 60 80 60 80 20 60 10 40 Destin 80 89 81 91 81 92 81 94 / 60 80 50 70 10 40 10 30 Evergreen 74 91 74 92 73 95 74 96 / 20 80 20 70 10 50 10 30 Waynesboro 74 91 73 90 73 94 73 95 / 20 80 20 80 10 60 10 30 Camden 74 91 74 91 73 93 74 94 / 10 70 10 70 10 50 10 30 Crestview 74 89 74 92 74 94 74 96 / 30 90 30 80 10 60 0 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238302 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)... Breezy southeasterly winds have set up this morning as the local pressure gradient remains pinched between Atlantic high pressure and a westward-moving broad low pressure in the northern Gulf. Winds may continue to gust in the 20-25 mph through the afternoon, especially at the beaches. Abundant sunshine today will offer a hotter day through the rest of the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Combining with humidity, heat index - "feels like" - temperatures will max out in the 100-107 degree range. According to the latest RAOB, mid-level temperatures and lapse rates remain on the warm and weak side, respectively. Though some slight cooling is expected aloft today, this will be an inhibiting factor for severe storm development today. That said, isolated strong storms may materialize along outflow boundary collisions later this afternoon and during the early evening along the I-75 corridor in NE FL where deeper moisture will exist. The primary concern this afternoon will localized flooding as numerous storms push northward along I-75. A "Marginal" risk for flooding does exist from Live Oak to Ocala and points to the west through this evening. Locations that received considerable rain yesterday will be at a slightly higher risk of flooding. However, due to the pace of convection the potential for flash flooding will be low. Tonight, diurnal convection will fade off by 10 pm with only a scattered debris cloud hanging around through the night. Steering flow remains southerly but will gradually weaken overnight but should be enough to keep fog development at bay, even in areas where downpours do occur this afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool toward mid/upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)... Initially moist southeasterly-southerly flow will shift to become more westerly by the end of the week as high pressure ridging extends in over the region from out of the east. Daily bouts of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop through the period. High temperatures for the end of the week are expected to range between the lower to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will likely rise to be near Heat Advisory conditions by Friday. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)... High pressure will move from east to west during this period, resulting in a gradual shift in the prevailing flow to become more out of the northwest by Monday. Pattern of daily bouts of convection will continue through the long term period with troughing situated to the northeast potentially developing into a low pressure system would result in increased amounts of rainfall before midweek. High temperatures through the weekend and into next week will be above the seasonal average with max temps potentially reaching up into the upper 90s and even the lower 100s for inland areas. Potential for Heat Advisory conditions to continue through the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Breezy southerly winds continue with the Atlantic sea breeze beginning it`s inland push as of 18z. The sea breeze is expected to reach KJAX around 20z, shifting winds to the ESE at similar speeds. Spotty and short-lived showers will pop up along the sea breeze but thunderstorm activity should hold off until later this afternoon and early this evening with potential TSRA impacts at KGNV and potentially KVQQ between 21z-00z. Once TSRA fades this evening, around 02z/03z, VFR conditions will be dominant at all airfields through day break. As broad low pressure moves farther to the west and away from the local area winds will begin to decrease. && .MARINE... A broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across the northern Gulf today while the Atlantic high pressure extends across the local waters. Breezy southerly winds between those two features will continue this afternoon and evening then gradually diminish overnight. The high will slide south and extend across south Florida late Friday allowing weak offshore flow to develop. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will be low through the rest of the week and over the weekend but are expected to increase over the waters next week as a trough shifts toward the area. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 94 74 / 20 10 30 10 SSI 88 79 89 79 / 10 0 20 0 JAX 93 75 94 76 / 30 10 50 0 SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 50 10 50 0 GNV 93 73 94 74 / 70 20 70 10 OCF 91 74 92 74 / 80 30 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238298 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 111 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /This Afternoon/... As of 111 PM Wed...Have adjusted pops up a category for this afternoon, as bands of tsra migrate newrd through the inner and outer coastal plain counties. Pops raised to likely (60%) category for a few hours. Lower pops remain for the Crystal Coast and Ctrl/Srn OBX, as sea breeze has already pushed inland. No other changes. Prev disc...As of 7 AM Wed... Key Messages... - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Sct showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing along the coast early this morning. Expect sct coastal convection to transition inland by late morning and this afternoon as seabreeze develops. Will continue chance pops. Meager shear will keep tstms pulse like with low svr threat. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms offshore. Temps near climo with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. Thursday and Friday drier mid and upper levels keep rain chances a bit below climo, but then an increase in moisture for the weekend into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Thursday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Thursday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thu morning/... As of 111 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, though bouts of shra and ts will bring tempo IFR conditions in heavy rain and lowered cigs through this afternoon. Tonight, shra and storms diminish, with sct to bkn mid/high clouds and SSW breeze limiting fog and low stratus threat tonight. Very little if any convection on Thu as high builds. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 7 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Typical summertime pattern will continue through tonight, with SSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a few gusts approach 25 kt by late afternoon/early evening over the eastern Pamlico Sound, Roanoke/Croatan Sounds but still looks too marginal for SCA. Seas will build to 2-4 ft this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms will likely impact the coastal waters and sounds through mid morning, transitioning inland this afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...Conditions continue deteriorating Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA`s given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238296 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A dry pattern continues across Deep South Texas with high pressure generally in place along the lower Texas coast. A low across the northern Gulf is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center with a 40 percent chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours to 7 days. With this activity northeast of the CWA, expect an increase in subsidence and slight bump to rather seasonal temperatures into early next week, especially across the brush country. A moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk is expected through the period. At this time, conditions along the beaches are expected to improve into Thursday, with a low risk of rip currents through Friday. Any tropical development across the northern Gulf may increase swell or swell period and push an elevated threat of rip currents to start the weekend. A moderate risk of rip currents returns Saturday and persists into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with gusty southeasterly winds gradually diminishing this evening. At this time, expect winds to remain just below any Airport Weather Warning criteria, but an occasional gust to 34 kts is possible into early this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and light to moderate seas are expected to generally prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low across the northern Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week into this weekend. Small Craft Caution conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238297 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low (10-30%)chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly Victoria Crossroads. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 While there will not be much of an appreciable difference, the forecast is still dependent on the development (or lack of development) of tropical invest AL93 over the northeast Gulf. Current thinking is that this system will remain mostly disorganized (though a tropical depression could develop) as it moves along the northern Gulf coast. This would allow a plume of moisture to move over the area, increasing our chances for precipitation Friday and Saturday over the Victoria Crossroads. Chances are still low (10-30%) and will mainly be seabreeze driven. The increased moisture will also lead to some increasing temperatures. Most locations will still remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but we will face a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle for all but ALI and VCT where MVFR ceilings and, perhaps, visibility are possible early Thursday morning. Have included a TEMPO for each of these sites for ceilings, but have not really included a mention for MVFR visibility. Drier air is expected which will reduce the confidence in fog/reduced visibility. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds with gusts to fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Occasionally higher gusts around 25 knots will be possible from Port Aransas and southward each afternoon. Rain chances are low through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 74 96 75 94 / 0 0 10 20 Laredo 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 80 90 79 90 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238295 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1235 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)... Breezy southeasterly winds have set up this morning as the local pressure gradient remains pinched between Atlantic high pressure and a westward-moving broad low pressure in the northern Gulf. Winds may continue to gust in the 20-25 mph through the afternoon, especially at the beaches. Abundant sunshine today will offer a hotter day through the rest of the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Combining with humidity, heat index - "feels like" - temperatures will max out in the 100-107 degree range. According to the latest RAOB, mid-level temperatures and lapse rates remain on the warm and weak side, respectively. Though some slight cooling is expected aloft today, this will be an inhibiting factor for severe storm development today. That said, isolated strong storms may materialize along outflow boundary collisions later this afternoon and during the early evening along the I-75 corridor in NE FL where deeper moisture will exist. The primary concern this afternoon will localized flooding as numerous storms push northward along I-75. A "Marginal" risk for flooding does exist from Live Oak to Ocala and points to the west through this evening. Locations that received considerable rain yesterday will be at a slightly higher risk of flooding. However, due to the pace of convection the potential for flash flooding will be low. Tonight, diurnal convection will fade off by 10 pm with only a scattered debris cloud hanging around through the night. Steering flow remains southerly but will gradually weaken overnight but should be enough to keep fog development at bay, even in areas where downpours do occur this afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool toward mid/upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)... Initially moist southeasterly-southerly flow will shift to become more westerly by the end of the week as high pressure ridging extends in over the region from out of the east. Daily bouts of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop through the period. High temperatures for the end of the week are expected to range between the lower to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values will likely rise to be near Heat Advisory conditions by Friday. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)... High pressure will move from east to west during this period, resulting in a gradual shift in the prevailing flow to become more out of the northwest by Monday. Pattern of daily bouts of convection will continue through the long term period with troughing situated to the northeast potentially developing into a low pressure system would result in increased amounts of rainfall before midweek. High temperatures through the weekend and into next week will be above the seasonal average with max temps potentially reaching up into the upper 90s and even the lower 100s for inland areas. Potential for Heat Advisory conditions to continue through the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail at the coast with winds from the southeast, which will begin to increase through 15z with steady winds between 10-12 kts with gust up to 25 kts. Lingering IFR ceilings inland (at KGNV) will linger through around 13z before scattering out. An Atlc sea breeze will push inland this afternoon which turn winds more easterly and keep TSRA west of I-95 corridor, focusing best chances at KVQQ and more so at KGNV from 20z through 01z. Otherwise, spotty showers may develop along the sea breeze before 20z but TSRA is not expected. Tonight, VFR conditions should prevail with only scattered cirrus and a southeasterly wind at or below 10 kts. && .MARINE... A broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across the northern Gulf today while the Atlantic high pressure extends across the local waters. Breezy southerly winds between those two features will continue this afternoon and evening then gradually diminish overnight. The high will slide south and extend across south Florida late Friday allowing weak offshore flow to develop. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will be low through the rest of the week and over the weekend but are expected to increase over the waters next week as a trough shifts toward the area. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 94 74 / 20 10 30 10 SSI 88 79 89 79 / 10 0 20 0 JAX 93 75 94 76 / 30 10 50 0 SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 50 10 50 0 GNV 93 73 94 74 / 70 20 70 10 OCF 91 74 92 74 / 80 30 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238293 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1108 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1106 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A broad area of low pressure associated with Invest AL93 is currently located near Panhandle coast, probably close to Cape San Blas. This broad low is gradually pushing off to the west. NHC continues to outlook a medium chance (40 percent) of tropical development, though the window of opportunity for this to occur near our forecast area has passed. So if tropical depression development were to occur, it would occur west of our region, i.e. over toward the MS and LA coast. Regardless of development, low-mid level southerly flow will increase through about Thursday morning as the broad eastern periphery of this sytem passes across the region. This will push quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity from off the Gulf and into coastal communities. Inland of the coast, we will get a more common late morning through early evening blossoming of convection in the very moist air mass. 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common over the next 24 hours. High-end rainfall of 3 to 5 inches for a coastal community. This would bring the nuisance variety of flooding. If we start to get consensus on where some of the highest-end rainfall is likely to occur, then a targeted Flood Watch could be needed. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A weak tropical disturbance will continue to move westward through the area today. Most of the convection has remained offshore during the overnight hours. As the system continues moving westward, bands of showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the system are expected to develop across the area with southerly flow. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially near the coast. Overall, the threat of flooding is non-zero, but so far it looks too isolated to warrant any flood watches. The best chance at seeing heavy rain will probably occur from mid-morning into early afternoon across the coastal areas and extend inland across the Florida panhandle and big bend. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with the cloud cover and early start to convection. For tonight, a few bands of showers and thunderstorms may linger on the east side of the system near the coast with southerly flow. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 On the backside of the tropical disturbance as it progresses west, southeast flow will be in place Thursday and PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches for most locations with likely to categorical pops in place, highest south of I10 and west of the Apalachicola river to 50% from Albany to Valdosta and north from there. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms. Beginning Friday into the weekend, the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast US from the east as the disturbance becomes absorbed in the flow. Each day gets a little warmer while rain chances slightly decrease. PWATs decrease to under 1.7 inches by Sunday as drier air becomes more evident in the column above 700 mb as the ridge builds west into the ArkLaTex. This will allow less coverage of convection, better low level mixing and higher afternoon temperatures towards the upper 90s. Heat advisories may be back in play in portions of the area beginning this weekend depending on how much mixing takes place each afternoon. Heading into the next work week, a weakness off the east coast may allow tropical moisture to wrap southwest back across the area with PWATs increasing back up to over 2 inches. If this occurs, rain chances appear to increase back to likely which will serve to break the heat from the weekend with increased convection coverage and high temps back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An unsettled pattern looks to continue today as a tropical disturbance (AL93) pushes westward through the area. Pockets of MVFR ceilings are expected this morning with VFR ceilings this afternoon. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the area today, most concentrated around TLH and ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An area of low pressure will track westward today through the Florida panhandle or just offshore. Winds will turn southerly as the low moves by, with increasing winds and seas as a result. Cautionary conditions east of Apalachicola today and all waters tonight into Thursday night with advisory conditions possible. Beginning Friday and into the weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf waters with winds and seas becoming favorable with wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Humidity and rain chances will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum for the next several days other than the potential for some high dispersions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the southern half of the area and especially in coastal areas for the next several days. The low pressure area will continue westward through Thursday with winds turning more onshore and PWATs in excess of 2 inches. 1-3 inches of rainfall, with the higher side of the range closer to the coast, appears reasonable from WPC. This will lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains as well as any training or slower moving storms. As the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall will lower as well, though this may be shortlived as moisture increases again at the beginning of the next work week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 75 91 76 / 80 20 90 10 Panama City 88 78 89 79 / 90 50 90 40 Dothan 89 75 92 74 / 80 10 80 10 Albany 91 74 94 74 / 60 10 60 0 Valdosta 93 74 95 76 / 70 10 60 10 Cross City 91 73 93 74 / 80 40 80 20 Apalachicola 86 79 87 80 / 90 60 90 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238292 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1101 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weather conditions have been a little mixed this morning, depending on where along the island chain you are located. Our KBYX radar has been tracking quite a bit of shower activity, particularly around the Middle and Upper Keys. A conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms moving from the Distant Straits, across the Middle and Upper Keys, and approaching the Florida peninsula has been persisting over the past few hours with almost no indication of diminishing anytime soon. The Alligator Reef WeatherFlow station reported a wind gust of 29 knots when a cell moved overhead just before 9 AM EDT. Naturally, we do not have any automated surface observations that have reported rainfall amounts, but radar derived estimates are showing storm total accumulations of approximately a few tenths of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall has fallen in the Middle and Upper Keys. There are a couple of pockets of rainfall estimates closer to an inch, but these may have been displaced from island communities. GOES-19 lightning detection has detected a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area as well, but not every shower has developed into a thunderstorm. This just means it will continue to be difficult to pick which cells will grow into thunderstorms, and which ones will continue to just be nuisance showers. The 12Z sounding from this morning does show a very wet profile with a calculated PWAT value of 2.16" coming in just below the daily max of 2.21". Below 500 mb, ample moisture, a lack on inhibition, and a veering wind profile favor an environment that can support continued activity for now, so we will go ahead an maintain the 60 percent PoPs inherited form the overnight shift, but it may be a few more hours before the radar reflects these elevated PoPs. The forecast is unfolding as expected, so no updates or changes are needed at this time. Expect high temperatures today in the upper 80s with southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, and continued showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist across the Florida Keys local waters today with coverage gradually increasing later this evening. Stronger pockets of storms will be capable of producing locally gusty and erratic winds, suddenly building and confused seas, and reduced visibility from blinding downpours. From synopsis, an area of low pressure will continue to slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend, easterly breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Prevailing flight categories at both island terminals today will be VFR, but occasional periods of sub VFR conditions, specifically sub VFR CIGs, will occur as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage later today. Will maintain VCSH in the TAF package as thunderstorms have been very isolated. Surface winds will generally be out of the southeast near 10 knots, but any activity that moves over, or near, either terminal will produce momentary variable winds. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1888, he daily record low temperature of 68F was recorded at Key West. This is also the lowest temperature ever recorded in July at Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 92 83 / 60 40 40 30 Marathon 89 82 90 83 / 60 40 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238290 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1008 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - An unsettled pattern continues today but with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. GOES water vapor channels depict upper ridging building into the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a shortwave trough that is now offshore, which was responsible (when combined with deep rich moisture) for showers/tstms with heavy rain later Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. There is still potentially a subtle boundary lingering over central VA this morning, with some stratus clouds remaining over the area, cutting off at the Blue Ridge mountians. A (convectively induced) shortwave trough lifts NW of the region today across WV/western PA with the upper ridge axis in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, PW values remain >2" (130-140% of normal). Showers/tstms should develop across the higher terrain, with the general consensus amongst the CAMs to dip this activity SE toward central VA and SE MD by later this aftn and evening, with some earlier development along the western shore of the Ches. Bay and SE VA. Convective coverage should be less than yesterday. However, there are many areas vulnerable to heavy rain and the northern half of the area in in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. An isolated strong tstm is possible across the NW counties with a marginal severe risk (for damaging wind gusts) over the northern piedmont counties of the FA. Seasonally hot and quite humid with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F. Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate later this evening. Otherwise, warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat and humidity build Thursday and Friday with Heat Advisories possible. The upper flow becomes westerly Thursday with 850mb temperatures rising to 19-21C. This should support highs in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s during peak heating due to recent wet conditions. This should yield heat indices in the 100-105F range W to 105+F E. Heat advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area, especially along and E of the I-95 corridor. A shortwave trough slides across the northern Mid- Atlantic later Thursday afternoon, and this could trigger a few showers/tstms across the northern tier of the area. There will be a little more shear Thursday, so any tstms could become more organized and pose at least a marginal severe threat. Warm and humid Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. A more substantial trough and cold front push from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Thursday night into Friday. A milder and drier airmass will remain well N of the region, but the associated cold front is progged to drop into the local area Friday. This will interact with an airmass with PW values >2" and mid 70s surface dewpoints. Therefore, increased coverage of showers/tstms is possible by Friday. The primary threats will be locally heavy rain and isolated strong wind gusts as 30-35kt of 500mb flow could result in better storm organization. Continued hot and humid, with 105+F heat indices forecast across SE VA and NE NC where heat advisories may eventually be needed. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers/tstms. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week, but the 16/00z EPS/GEFS each retrograde the ridge to the west as lower 500mb heights develop over New England and Atlantic Canada, which could generally result in highs in the mid/upper 80s to near 90F. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 11z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is light out of the SSW. LIFR stratus lingers at RIC and that should lift to MVFR by 12-13z. Any MVFR cigs after 12z, mainly for RIC, SBY, and PHF are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt this aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish this evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday morning. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be 10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1 PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon. However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe. Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through most of the weekend. Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4 ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today. The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the surf forecast for now. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early this afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest this morning. Additionally, Lawrenceville may touch minor flood later this morning. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238288 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 856 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through next week. Temperatures will increase Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as high pressure strengthens aloft and a dangerous combination of heat and humidity may develop. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible early next week. && .UPDATE... 12z soundings from CHS and MHX revealed an airmass very similar today yesterday with moderate uncapped CAPE around 1500 J/kg and precipitable water values above the already-high seasonal norms. This should yield another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once the seabreeze circulation develops the trend should be for less coastal convection and more inland convection this afternoon. Lack of wind shear should preclude storm organization but high precipitable water could help produce locally heavy rainfall. This is a barotropic airmass with essentially no difference in temperatures or weather between the Carolinas, Florida, and the Caribbean today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94 to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low coverage MVFR is hanging around this morning with clouds around 1.5-2 kft. These may fill in here and there but only briefly as we head into the afternoon. Showers and storms should pop up along the sea breeze and migrate inland as per usual with MVFR CIGs possible and MVFR/IFR VSBYs as rain could be heavy at times. Winds will increase to ~10 kts this afternoon, closer to 15 kts at the coast. Initial thoughts for tonight is that fog won`t be an issue and patchy at best if present due to the overnight breeze lingering. Low stratus may be possible. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and 6 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly more WSW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238287 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 644 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 * Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. * Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend. * Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to moderate seas through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions. Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the Southern U.S. For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday (highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island. The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned 594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common along and west of IH-69C. As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions could continue through late July/early August, given the time of year we`re in and model trends. Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk through the period. Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north- central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Some passing low stratus and light to moderate southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Will include a TEMPO for HRL and MFE for brief periods of MVFR stratus. Otherwise, winds will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease this evening into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 77 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238286 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However, it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday. Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory; however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing one. Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land) before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow from the invest begins. The switch will flip rather quick as we move from wet and soggy to hot and sweaty. As whatever this system becomes slowly moves onshore across Louisiana, the upper ridge will quickly build over the area in its place allowing for the furnace to turn up. With increasing subsidence, expect rain chances to decrease through the weekend and into early next week but temperatures and heat indices will go up. Legit heat advisory material will be possible during this period with the combination of remnant moisture from the tropical system and the subsidence from the ridge combine to make the great gulf coast pressure cooker. Expect high heat risk days for most of the area Sunday through Tuesday and potentially extending into the middle part of the week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon across the area, especially over coastal counties. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Storms should taper off by the evening, however, ceilings may lower to MVFR or IFR tonight. Winds will generally be northeasterly to easterly across much of the area, although locations along the immediate coast could become southeasterly. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An increasing moderate to strong southeasterly flow develops on Wednesday then becomes southerly through Friday as a low pressure system may move across the northern Gulf. Southwesterly flow expected for Saturday as the low passes to our west. Please continue to follow the National Hurricane Center`s information on any possible tropical development. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 88 76 89 76 91 75 / 80 60 90 50 90 20 80 10 Pensacola 92 77 88 79 90 79 91 79 / 80 60 90 50 80 20 60 10 Destin 91 80 90 81 91 81 92 81 / 90 60 90 50 80 10 50 10 Evergreen 95 73 91 74 92 74 93 74 / 60 30 80 20 80 10 60 10 Waynesboro 98 74 90 74 90 72 93 72 / 30 30 80 10 80 10 60 10 Camden 94 74 90 74 90 74 92 74 / 40 20 70 10 80 10 60 10 Crestview 92 74 90 74 91 74 93 74 / 90 40 90 30 80 10 70 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238285 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 730 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast. Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today. Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise. This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western half of South Florida. On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a bit less than today (Wednesday). The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if they happen) would be fairly isolated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while, it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness. To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Winds will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots with possible gusts up to 20 knots today over the east coast TAF sites. KAPF TAF site will see winds southeast this morning before going more Southerly this afternoon due to the west coast sea breeze as speeds will be 10 to 15 knots. VCTS for all east coast TAF sites along with tempo group 12Z-15Z for reduce vis and ceiling in storms. VCSH in morning with VCTS in afternoon APF TAF site. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 80 89 81 / 70 40 70 10 West Kendall 89 77 90 78 / 70 40 70 10 Opa-Locka 91 80 91 81 / 70 40 70 10 Homestead 88 80 90 80 / 70 50 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 81 / 70 50 70 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 70 40 70 10 Pembroke Pines 92 82 93 82 / 70 40 70 10 West Palm Beach 90 80 90 79 / 70 40 60 10 Boca Raton 91 80 91 80 / 60 40 60 10 Naples 91 77 92 77 / 80 40 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238283 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 742 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weak low pressure center will continue to move westward across the Florida Panhandle through tonight, which will continue a moist south to southeast flow across NE FL/SE GA. This will allow for the East Coast sea breeze to push inland to the US 301 corridor, then interact with the lingering tropical moisture in place across NE FL where PWATs will remain above 2 inches and expect numerous to widespread showers and storms again this afternoon/evening, with heavy rainfall the main threat, although a few isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will still be possible, along with some weak rotation possible in some of the more intense storms since area will remain on the East side of the departing low pressure system. Slightly lesser convection expect along the NE FL coastal areas and across SE GA, where scattered showers and storms are expected. Max temps should rebound into the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast, and dew points temps into the mid/upper 70s will still push Heat indices to 100-105F, but still below heat advisory criteria. Convection will linger over inland areas along the I-75 corridor through the evening hours with heavy rainfall threat until midnight, then just a few isolated showers possible during the overnight hours in the humid airmass. Low temps in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will build to the east Thursday, with ridge extending across forecast area. The ridge will move toward the southeast Friday, as a trough develops over the southeastern US. A flow from the south/southwest will provide moisture for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The region will be between high pressure to the southeast, and the trough across the southeastern US over the weekend into early next week. A moist flow from the southwest will keep chances for mainly diurnal precipitation in the forecast. An elongated area of low pressure may develop along the southeastern US Tuesday. The development of this low will increase precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail at the coast with winds from the southeast, which will begin to increase through 15z with steady winds between 10-12 kts with gust up to 25 kts. Lingering IFR ceilings inland (at KGNV) will linger through around 13z before scattering out. An Atlc sea breeze will push inland this afternoon which turn winds more easterly and keep TSRA west of I-95 corridor, focusing best chances at KVQQ and more so at KGNV from 20z through 01z. Otherwise, spotty showers may develop along the sea breeze before 20z but TSRA is not expected. Tonight, VFR conditions should prevail with only scattered cirrus and a southeasterly wind at or below 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward across the Florida Panhandle today and tonight with south to southeast winds continuing at Caution levels. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the southeast states through Thursday. The high will shift south and extend across south Florida late Friday into the weekend as a surface front lingers across Georgia. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 95 74 / 30 20 40 10 SSI 87 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 10 JAX 92 76 94 76 / 30 20 50 10 SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 40 20 60 10 GNV 92 73 94 74 / 70 50 70 10 OCF 91 73 92 75 / 90 50 80 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238281 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low (10-30%)chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly Victoria Crossroads. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Summer time conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend and into next week with a majority of South Texas remaining rain free. There is an increase of showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads Friday, but chances remain low (10-30%). This is in response to a potential tropical system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring that has a medium 40% chance of developing across the northeast and northern Gulf over the next 48 hours. No significant impacts are expected in S TX at this time other than a slight increase in precipitation Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Max heat indices may briefly approach 110 over the weekend across the Brush Country due to a slight increase in moisture. The slightly higher heat indices will lead to a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 IFR to VFR conditions are expected to return to VFR by late this morning. Southeasterly winds this afternoon/evening with gusts up to around 25 knots. Tonight expect similar overnight conditions with MVFR CIGs and IFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds with gusts to fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters through much of the upcoming week. Rain chances are low through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 90 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 79 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238280 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 711 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the east to west oriented ridge axis will continue to extend into the GA/SC coast. At the surface, The subtropical high will be the primary feature and will drive the low-level flow pattern across the forecast area. Overall, today does not look particularly active for convection. The ridge aloft will help to keep coverage down, and model soundings are rather warm and only depict MLCAPE values of up to around 1,500 J/kg. Instead, we will likely continue to see weak convection push onshore from the coastal waters within the onshore flow throughout much of the day. Any diurnal land-based convection that develops also looks to be weak and not a severe threat. Also, the locally heavy rain threat is low thanks to the progressive nature of this convection with storm motion on the order of 15-20 mph. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the low 90s, with heat indices mostly in the low 100`s and some isolated values into the mid 100`s. Tonight: Overall, little change to the pattern overnight. Any lingering land-based convection should dissipate through the early evening, though there will still likely be some shower activity over the coastal waters trying to push onshore at times. The low-level flow will start to become more south- southwest or southwest with time which should keep most of the nocturnal convection across the coastal waters off the coast. Similar lows to the last few nights, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s inland and hanging around in the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong deep layered ridge will prevail Thursday through Saturday, bringing hot and humid conditions. Friday and Saturday will feature highs in the mid/upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, and heat indices topping 108 in some places. We could need Heat Advisories for part of the area both days. An increase in upper level subsidence will limit PoPs to 20-30%. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift west of the area late in the weekend into early next week, allowing some shortwave energy to rotate in from the north. This could result in an increase in diurnal convection coverage Monday and Tuesday. Toasty conditions will continue into Monday, with possible Heat Advisories both days. Temps may cool slightly by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The primary issue this morning will center on showers streaming onshore and producing brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Chances will be highest at KCHS and KJZI through about midday and we have maintained the TEMPO groups there. KSAV is in the clear for morning showers, but could potentially see isolated showers and storms this afternoon. However, chances are too high to include in the TAF. Winds will be stronger today, with frequent southerly gusts into the 15-20 knot range. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening hours. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Subtropical high pressure to the east will be the primary feature driving the flow across the local waters through the period. Winds today will be southerly with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range, though there could be an occasional 20 knot gust. Overnight, winds will slightly start to veer around to become more south-southwest late. Speeds should be the same, mostly 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Seas should average 3-4 feet through the period. We will likely continue to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters today within the onshore flow. This activity isn`t expected to be particularly strong and there is a low probability of strong wind gusts. High pressure will prevail Thursday through Monday, maintaining typical summertime weather in the marine area. No headlines expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238279 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 708 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - An unsettled pattern continues today but with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. GOES water vapor channels depict upper ridging building into the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a shortwave trough that is now offshore, which was responsible (when combined with deep rich moisture) for showers/tstms with heavy rain later Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. There is still potentially a subtle boundary lingering over central VA early this morning. Warm and humid with temperatures/dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, with some patchy fog over the Piedmont. A (convectively induced) shortwave trough lifts NW of the region today across WV/western PA with the upper ridge axis in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, PW values remain >2" (130-140% of normal). Showers/tstms should develop across the higher terrain, with the general consensus amongst the CAMs to dip this activity SE toward central VA and SE MD by later this aftn and evening, with some earlier development along the western shore of the Ches. Bay and SE VA. Convective coverage should be less than yesterday. However, there are many areas vulnerable to heavy rain and the northern half of the area in in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. An isolated strong tstm is possible across the NW counties with a marginal severe risk (for damaging wind gusts) on the `doorstep` of the local area. Seasonally hot and quite humid with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F. Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate later this evening. Otherwise, warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat and humidity build Thursday and Friday with Heat Advisories possible. The upper flow becomes westerly Thursday with 850mb temperatures rising to 19-21C. This should support highs in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s during peak heating due to recent wet conditions. This should yield heat indices in the 100-105F range W to 105+F E. Heat advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area, especially along and E of the I-95 corridor. A shortwave trough slides across the northern Mid- Atlantic later Thursday afternoon, and this could trigger a few showers/tstms across the northern tier of the area. There will be a little more shear Thursday, so any tstms could become more organized and pose at least a marginal severe threat. Warm and humid Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. A more substantial trough and cold front push from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Thursday night into Friday. A milder and drier airmass will remain well N of the region, but the associated cold front is progged to drop into the local area Friday. This will interact with an airmass with PW values >2" and mid 70s surface dewpoints. Therefore, increased coverage of showers/tstms is possible by Friday. The primary threats will be locally heavy rain and isolated strong wind gusts as 30-35kt of 500mb flow could result in better storm organization. Continued hot and humid, with 105+F heat indices forecast across SE VA and NE NC where heat advisories may eventually be needed. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers/tstms. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week, but the 16/00z EPS/GEFS each retrograde the ridge to the west as lower 500mb heights develop over New England and Atlantic Canada, which could generally result in highs in the mid/upper 80s to near 90F. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 11z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is light out of the SSW. LIFR stratus lingers at RIC and that should lift to MVFR by 12-13z. Any MVFR cigs after 12z, mainly for RIC, SBY, and PHF are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt this aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish this evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday morning. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be 10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1 PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon. However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe. Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through most of the weekend. Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4 ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today. The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the surf forecast for now. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early this afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest this morning. Additionally, Lawrenceville may touch minor flood later this morning. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238278 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 658 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 7 AM Wed... Key Messages... - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Sct showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing along the coast early this morning. Expect sct coastal convection to transition inland by late morning and this afternoon as seabreeze develops. Will continue chance pops. Meager shear will keep tstms pulse like with low svr threat. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms offshore. Temps near climo with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. Thursday and Friday drier mid and upper levels keep rain chances a bit below climo, but then an increase in moisture for the weekend into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Thursday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Thursday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 7 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with potential for patchy MVFR stratus early this morning and sct convection this afternoon. Sct to bkn mid/high clouds and SSW breeze should limit fog threat this morning, though terminals could see a brief period of MVFR stratus through mid morning. Scattered showers and tstms expected to develop again this afternoon, which could briefly bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 7 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Typical summertime pattern will continue through tonight, with SSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a few gusts approach 25 kt by late afternoon/early evening over the eastern Pamlico Sound, Roanoke/Croatan Sounds but still looks too marginal for SCA. Seas will build to 2-4 ft this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms will likely impact the coastal waters and sounds through mid morning, transitioning inland this afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...Conditions continue deteriorating Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA`s given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238277 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 556 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Dry, but hot today as weak high pressure builds over the region. - Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. - NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the northern Gulf on Wednesday, giving it a 40% chance of development into a tropical system in the next couple of days. Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A slight increase in mid-level ridging and drier air moving into the region will result in the low rain chances on Wednesday through early Thursday - practically the lowest rain chances we`ve had in over a week. There still might be an isolated, short-lived shower that develops thanks to daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, but overall we will be rain free through early Thursday. However, the increasing heights aloft and reduced moisture will lead to afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in spots along the I-10 corridor. Rain chances do begin to increase from the east late Thursday with chances increasing as we head into Friday. This increase in moisture will be associated with the disturbance currently located in northern Florida that the NHC is monitoring for development into a tropical system as it tracks through the northern Gulf over the next few days. NHC gives it a 40% chance of development into a tropical depression or named storm within the next 2 days - more on that in the tropical section below. Regardless of development, this disturbance will be bringing a surge in PWATs (up to 2-2.4"), so we can expect increased rain chances with locally heavy rainfall possible Friday through early Saturday. WPC has placed the I-45 corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Friday with eastern Polk, eastern Liberty, and most of Chambers county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). WPC continues the risk of Excessive Rainfall into Saturday, but shifts the threats further east with areas east of I-45 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) and the Slight Risk out of our region and more towards the TX/LA border. Looking past this potential tropical system, expect warming conditions Sunday into the start of the work week with temperatures rising back into the mid 90s (and possibly into the upper 90s). With some drier air in place, rain chances will remain on the lower-side with PoPs maxing out near 15-20% during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning, becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light onshore winds around 5-10kt (and gusts to 15kt) and seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through the next few days. Drier air has moved in, so expect much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms through early Thursday. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to increase as a tropical disturbance approaches SE TX from the northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of this disturbance and more information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters on Wednesday. NHC maintains a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours as the system moves through the northern Gulf. Regardless of development, we can expect the increased rain chances late Thursday through Friday or early Saturday. Current wave modeling does not factor in any tropical development, so its possible that wave height forecast may increase for Friday *IF* the system does strengthen. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts. Fowler && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Not much change in this discussion that hasn`t been talked about in the previous discussions. NHC is monitoring a disturbance, currently located in northern Florida, for strengthening into a tropical system giving it a 40% chance of development within the next 2 days. Conditions are favorable for development, but there remains uncertainty in the forecast track of this system. This system will move westwards through the northern Gulf, but how far west it gets before turning northwards is uncertain (for now, most guidance has it turning northwards into Louisiana before reaching our region, if it develops at all, but this guidance may change once/if a center of circulation develops), and how far offshore the center of circulation develops (a track closer to the coast means less time over water and potentially drier air impacting development). Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an increase of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers and thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through Friday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 95 75 93 76 / 10 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 80 / 0 0 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238276 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Deep moisture lingers through Thursday, supporting high daily rain chances (60-80%). Highest coverage is expected across the interior. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. - Temperatures warm Friday and into the weekend, with peak heat index values reaching 102-107 degrees. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Today... The Atlantic high builds toward central Florida today as invest 93L moves westward along the northeast Gulf coast. Southeast winds develop and increase to 10-15 mph as a modest pressure gradient is established. High moisture lingers in the low to mid levels while soundings suggest a drier airmass beginning to advect above 700mb. More sunshine and surface heating combined with sufficient low level moisture should allow for rounds showers and storms this afternoon. Southeast winds should generally keep coverage highest across the interior (60-70%) with drier forecast trends focused near and east of I-95. While more organized tall storm growth could be hindered by poor mid level lapse rates and dry air aloft, steep low level lapse rates should be supportive for quick updrafts. Isolated strong storms which can overcome poor mid levels and mix with drier air aloft will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-50 mph, and small hail. Temperatures return near normal today with highs mostly ranging the upper 80s to low 90s. Areas which see limited shower and storm activity could see peak heat index values between 100-105 degrees this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures (L-M70s) remain mild with onshore flow. Thursday... A wave of moisture advects from the Bahamas on Thursday keeping one more day of above normal rain chances. Southeast winds hold under the influence of the Atlantic ridge axis. While onshore moving showers and storms will be possible along the coast in the late morning and early afternoon hours, steering flow should favor the greatest coverage across the interior in the afternoon and evening (70-80%). Overall storm parameters remain similar to what is forecast today, and isolated stronger storms will be capable of lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45-50 mph, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s with heat index values increasing between 102-107 degrees. Friday-Tuesday... Broad mid level ridging builds westward across central Florida through the weekend. High temperatures gradually increase into Sunday, spreading the low to mid 90s each day. Ridging is forecast to break down by Monday allowing temperatures to relax slightly. While a drier air column is expected, continued onshore flow should keep surface moisture in place. This will result in peak heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria this weekend, particularly on Sunday. Some areas may see relief from the heat in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms. Models solutions diverge Monday and Tuesday with hints of a wetter pattern returning into next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The Atlantic ridge axis settles across the local waters through late week. South to southeast winds around 10-15 kts today and tomorrow slacken some by Friday. Deep moisture will keep high rain chances in place through Thursday with a more seasonal pattern of showers and storms returning Friday and into the weekend. Seas 2-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions continue outside of convection. Morning showers with ISOLD lightning storms along the coast this morning with TEMPO MVFR. Though Invest 93L continues to pull away (W/NW) from ECFL, abundant moisture will stream across the area in its wake. Light SE/S flow continues thru early morning, with southerly flow dominating during the day. Wind speeds increasing to 8-12 kts areawide, and a little gustier across coastal TAF sites. A gradual return on this day to the normal sea breeze regime, though highest PoPs look to favor the interior and esp WCFL into late afternoon/evening. PoP potential highest along the coast during the morning and early afternoon. Too early for TEMPO groups across the interior, but do have some VCSH/VCTS at various locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 90 76 / 60 10 60 10 MCO 92 75 92 76 / 70 20 80 10 MLB 89 78 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 10 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 70 10 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 20 80 10 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238275 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .UPDATE... Updated POPs through this morning as the showers moving onshore are making it quite far inland, mostly just coastal counties though. Updated 12Z aviation below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94 to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low coverage MVFR is hanging around this morning with clouds around 1.5-2 kft. These may fill in here and there but only briefly as we head into the afternoon. Showers and storms should pop up along the sea breeze and migrate inland as per usual with MVFR CIGs possible and MVFR/IFR VSBYs as rain could be heavy at times. Winds will increase to ~10 kts this afternoon, closer to 15 kts at the coast. Initial thoughts for tonight is that fog won`t be an issue and patchy at best if present due to the overnight breeze lingering. Low stratus may be possible. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and 6 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly more WSW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238274 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 641 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) A south to southeast flow continues across the region today with mainly VFR conditions this morning, followed by increasing showers and thunderstorms. Most activity is offshore this morning, but a few showers could affect coastal sites before storms increase in coverage for the afternoon. All sites have TEMPO groups for later this afternoon for storms causing gusty winds and/or MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys. Convection diminishes after 02Z or so, with a quiet overnight period expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Invest 93L is in the process of moving to the west away from the state after trekking across near our northernmost counties, who received plentiful amounts of precipitation. In contrast, most of the area further south saw subdued rainfall, as a drier slot covering much of West Central and Southwest Florida worked to stifle and delay convection until the late afternoon, where scattered storms were relatively short-lived due to the impending sunset. New showers and thunderstorms formed along the coast and will continue to be pushed to the north by onsetting SSE flow, but most are offshore and over the marine zones at the moment, rather than interacting with land. Inland areas should be quiet for the rest of the morning. With the new flow pattern setting in behind the low pressure system, Sea Breeze Flow Regime 7 us expected through the end of the week, which will bring a more historically familiar Florida summertime pattern of showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring in the afternoon. Today, with more SSE flow than SE, the onset of activity should begin first in our southern counties, potentially in the early afternoon, before moving up through our area a few hours later. Convective activity is expected to die down shortly after sunset. Precipitation chances are quite high today with values around 70%-80%, so the Weather Prediction Center has tagged our area with a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall, and therefore a possibility of localized flash flooding exists. Climatologically, the distribution of precipitation under this type of flow is typically concentrated along the west coast of the state. This pattern should stay intact through the end of the week, but a slight difference could be a shift to more SE flow, which would lead to more inland coverage. With this pattern of primarily afternoon showers and thunderstorms back in place, highs are expected to rise in the mid 90s for the end of this week and into the weekend due to relatively less cloud cover and rainfall during the peak hours of sunlight. Lows could climb up a few degrees as well towards the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 South to southeast winds expected through the remainder of the week as a tropical disturbance slowly moves along the northern Gulf coast and away from the local waters. Winds will remain elevated over the next day or two, potentially approaching cautionary levels, before gradually decreasing into the weekend. Daily showers and storms remain likely, with locally higher winds and seas in/near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Aside from elevated dispersions today mainly across parts of the Nature Coast, typical summertime minimal fire concerns expected with ample moisture remaining in place across the area along with daily shower and storm chances through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 92 79 / 80 30 80 30 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 70 30 80 20 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 70 20 80 10 SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 30 BKV 91 72 93 73 / 80 30 80 20 SPG 88 78 90 79 / 80 30 80 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1238273 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 538 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A weak tropical disturbance will continue to move westward through the area today. Most of the convection has remained offshore during the overnight hours. As the system continues moving westward, bands of showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the system are expected to develop across the area with southerly flow. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially near the coast. Overall, the threat of flooding is non-zero, but so far it looks too isolated to warrant any flood watches. The best chance at seeing heavy rain will probably occur from mid-morning into early afternoon across the coastal areas and extend inland across the Florida panhandle and big bend. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with the cloud cover and early start to convection. For tonight, a few bands of showers and thunderstorms may linger on the east side of the system near the coast with southerly flow. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 On the backside of the tropical disturbance as it progresses west, southeast flow will be in place Thursday and PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches for most locations with likely to categorical pops in place, highest south of I10 and west of the Apalachicola river to 50% from Albany to Valdosta and north from there. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms. Beginning Friday into the weekend, the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast US from the east as the disturbance becomes absorbed in the flow. Each day gets a little warmer while rain chances slightly decrease. PWATs decrease to under 1.7 inches by Sunday as drier air becomes more evident in the column above 700 mb as the ridge builds west into the ArkLaTex. This will allow less coverage of convection, better low level mixing and higher afternoon temperatures towards the upper 90s. Heat advisories may be back in play in portions of the area beginning this weekend depending on how much mixing takes place each afternoon. Heading into the next work week, a weakness off the east coast may allow tropical moisture to wrap southwest back across the area with PWATs increasing back up to over 2 inches. If this occurs, rain chances appear to increase back to likely which will serve to break the heat from the weekend with increased convection coverage and high temps back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An unsettled pattern looks to continue today as a tropical disturbance (AL93) pushes westward through the area. Pockets of MVFR ceilings are expected this morning with VFR ceilings this afternoon. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the area today, most concentrated around TLH and ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An area of low pressure will track westward today through the Florida panhandle or just offshore. Winds will turn southerly as the low moves by, with increasing winds and seas as a result. Cautionary conditions east of Apalachicola today and all waters tonight into Thursday night with advisory conditions possible. Beginning Friday and into the weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf waters with winds and seas becoming favorable with wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Humidity and rain chances will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum for the next several days other than the potential for some high dispersions. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the southern half of the area and especially in coastal areas for the next several days. The low pressure area will continue westward through Thursday with winds turning more onshore and PWATs in excess of 2 inches. 1-3 inches of rainfall, with the higher side of the range closer to the coast, appears reasonable from WPC. This will lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains as well as any training or slower moving storms. As the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall will lower as well, though this may be shortlived as moisture increases again at the beginning of the next work week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 75 91 76 / 80 20 90 10 Panama City 88 78 89 79 / 90 50 90 40 Dothan 89 75 92 74 / 80 10 80 10 Albany 91 74 94 74 / 60 10 60 0 Valdosta 93 74 95 76 / 70 10 60 10 Cross City 91 73 93 74 / 80 40 80 20 Apalachicola 86 79 87 80 / 90 60 90 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238272 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 402 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Given the latest trends in more widespread cloud coverage from the marine storms ongoing and the likelihood that this inhibits some of the warming and higher heat indices we would see later today, we have moved to cancel the Heat Advisory for coastal Mississippi (Pearl River, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson), northshore (St. Tammany), and southshore (Orleans, Jefferson, St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, and Plaquemines). A heat advisory still remains in effect for the remainder of areas to the northwest of Lake Pontchartrain (including Baton Rouge metro) and southwest Mississippi. However, we will have to monitor trends over the next 6 hours to determine whether further adjustments to the Heat Advisory are necessary. TS/TE && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Yesterday was quite warm with very little convection. That said there were still a few storms out there but overall most of the region remained rain free and about half of the area likely remains rain free again today. This will lead to another warm one but the eastern half of the area may see some cooling rain in the afternoon and maybe as early as midday. Today will begin very warm and humid. The ridge that is helping to steer the flow and our Gulf disturbance remains entrenched across the southeastern CONUS and Lower MS Valley nosing down into southeastern TX. This is leading to very warm LL temps across the Lower MS Valley which is sinking down into southern MS and SELA but h925 temps are only around 26/27C. Under optimal conditions this would lead to mid to even upper 90s easily but this ridge again isn`t that August early September type ridge So getting much above 96 is going to be very difficult combine the fact that storms could be moving in from the east and looking at radar last night and satellite there was a large area of precip that has been displaced well west of our Gulf disturbance. This surge of moisture is already moving into the area and there is a good chance that we could see convection begin to develop along coastal MS and coastal SELA late morning/midday. In addition high clouds are already quickly spreading west and could also impact temps today and that could help keep the heat index in check some. The other issue that has been occurring for the last week or so is the mixing. We have really been able to mix these dewpoints down efficiently north of I-12 and north of I-10 in coastal MS the for some reason and that has helped keep the heat index under control in and around places like BTR and MCB. With all of that there are some question with the heat today however around the lakes and on the immediate MS coast where the moisture is higher it has been more oppressive and the only thing that will help to keep it in check will be convection...which is a concern today. That said the heat advisory that is currently out...will not make changes to it yet as see if convection does fire early today. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The extended portion of the forecast is highly focused on the system over the northeastern Gulf. Models have begun to come more in line with this system really hugging the northern Gulf but remaining on the weak side from an organization standpoint. Overall no major changes made to the forecast with the risk of very heavy rain still possible across the region mainly Thursday through Friday night but rain could linger around the area into the weekend. So first...there is still some potential for heavy rain with flash flooding possible however the confidence is not the highest given the latest trends. That said it will not take much to get some rather high rain totals over portions of the CWA given the amount of moisture over the area and favorable upper lvl environment in place. The tropical wave we are watching is still sitting at 40% of developing into the tropical depression in the next 48 hours but it is not looking very organized at this time. It moved inland yesterday over the FL peninsula but almost as soon as it moved inland it became detached with the sfc low quickly surging north while the mid lvl low continued west. By 5z the LL center was east of TLH and approaching southern GA while the mid lvl center was south of Apalachicola. So the question is can a sfc low redevelop underneath the convection and then will it just continue to barrel west towards the LA coast or will it struggle to see much if any consolidation with a very messy and disorganized system approaching the coast Thursday. At this time it is beginning to feel like we may want some consolidation as this would likely focus the heavier rain and along and south of the eventual track which would likely be the immediate SELa coast and the coastal water. However, if this is messy disorganized system convection will be more diurnal in nature. Yes that will keep us from seeing widespread rain and a complete washout everywhere but will be more favorable to seeing scattered storms which will be extremely efficient rain producers. PWS are still expected to be well over 2" and models are now explicitly showing PWS near 2.5" at times Thursday and Friday. The upper lvl setup is still very favorable Thursday and into Thursday evening so the concern may be trending to scatted storms tapping into that rather extreme moisture with a nice diffluent setup aloft and weak steering currents. The problem then becomes storms easily capable of dropping multiple inches of rain in under an hour but that alone isn`t necessarily a problem, the problem is just where that would occur. There are many locations that will have no problem handling even more than 2-3" of rain in an hour but if that falls over the wrong locations say like any of our more urban areas that will lead to big problems. Now the obligatory and we hate to say but "there is still a lot of uncertainty". Most of the time there really is and in this case there are but trends in radar and satellite along with guidance are suggesting that there is a good chance that the bulk of the heavy rain will remain along and south of the coast. Small adjustments/changes can have rather significant implications in impacts and with our system there are a few things that could lead to most of the area seeing relatively light impacts. The biggest determining factor in this case is track and there are more than a few solutions suggesting that it will struggle to really develop and remain just a little too far south with most of the rain hanging south especially since there is a good chance that a bulk of the rain will remain on the southern side of this system. At this time we will continue to advertise widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amount of 6 to 8 possible. However if trends continue these values may trend down some more or at the least the area may be a little more confined to coastal LA. The one caveat is if this just remains a disorganized mess where convection become highly diurnal in nature and that would then lead to scattered storms across the entire CWA leading to isolated pockets of very heavy rain. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the night and first half of the day tomorrow however by afternoon we will likely begin to see convection develop or move in from the east. Locations with the greatest risk of seeing convection tomorrow afternoon are along coastal MS and south of Lake Pontchartrain. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Benign conditions will continue today but convection is already quickly moving in from the east. We will begin to see impacts increase later today and through the rest of the week as a disturbance from the northeaster Gulf moves into the area tomorrow. Winds and seas will increase over local waters, Thursday through the weekend. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 95 74 90 73 / 30 40 90 30 BTR 95 77 90 75 / 30 40 90 50 ASD 95 74 87 74 / 40 70 90 60 MSY 95 79 88 78 / 40 70 100 60 GPT 95 75 88 77 / 70 60 90 70 PQL 94 74 88 76 / 80 60 90 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-057-058-071-081>086. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238271 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 506 AM AST Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A tropical wave will approach the islands today, increasing moisture and the potential to observe showers and thunderstorms. * If prolonged period of heavy rain do not happen across the lower elevations and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the peak heating hours, we can observe an elevated heat risk. Stay tuned for any forecast update. * Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust particles will promote hazy skies, reduced visibilities and poor air quality across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands tomorrow and Friday. * Increasing winds will lead to choppy seas and moderate risk of rip currents. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday... Overnight minimum temperatures ranged from the low 60s in the mountains to the upper 70s or low 80s in coastal urban areas. The Doppler Radar detected scattered to numerous showers moving inland over the USVI and the windward locations of PR overnight. Winds were mainly from the east at 10 to 15 mph, with locally higher gusts near showers. This activity is associated with the leading edge of today`s tropical wave. Showers will increase by mid-morning and continue into the afternoon as the tropical wave approaches the islands. While the risk of rain is elevated for Puerto Rico and slight for the US Virgin Islands, we cannot dismiss the possibility of urban flooding in the Virgin Islands due to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall associated with this tropical wave, especially during the afternoon and evening. The subsidence and dry air aloft associated with the presence of a mid- to upper-level high pressure is hurting the potential to observe scattered to widespread thunderstorms. However, for this reason, we only include isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. Additionally, the available moisture, combined with intense diurnal heating, poses a risk to the most vulnerable communities, especially if the regions experience rain activity that is not prolonged enough to mitigate this heating. We have decided to hold off on issuing the Heat Advisory until mid-morning (around the peak heating period between 10 AM and 2 PM AST) to assess whether the expected rainfall will have a cooling effect on temperatures. If rainfall sufficiently cools the area, the advisory may not be necessary. However, if the anticipated showers do not develop, dangerously high heat indices could still occur. Therefore, please stay tuned for updates from our office, should they become necessary. Behind today`s wave, we noticed another Saharan Air Layer, which will bring another round of hazy skies and deteriorating air quality, due to suspended dust particles, from Thursday into Friday. However, the lingering moisture will result in the typical weather pattern observed during the summer, characterized by passing showers across the windward locations, followed by afternoon convection across the western portions of PR and downwind from the US Virgin Islands. Seasonal to above-anormal temperatures and high moisture content will keep an elevated to high risk of heat for the rest of the short term, and it`s very likely to meet Heat Advisory or even Extreme Heat Warning Criteria. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... During the long-term forecast period, the latest model guidance suggests that precipitable water content will generally range from near seasonal values to below average, with the exception of Sunday, which is showing above normal values of up to 1.9 inches. Generally, a TUTT-low and an induced low-level trough are expected to move across the northeastern Caribbean through the weekend, bringing an increase in shower activity. A disturbance is also expected to move across the region from Sunday into early next week. In general, these weather features will enhance early morning convection between the USVI and eastern sections of Puerto Rico, followed by afternoon thunderstorms over portions of the interior and western Puerto Rico. Early next week through Wednesday, a deep layer ridge building from the central Atlantic into the northeastern Caribbean will shift further west and displace the trough pattern. Mid-level moisture is expected to decrease, and rainfall will likely follow a more typical diurnal pattern driven by daytime heating and local effects. At this time, the flood risk during these days is expected to range from none to limited. Additionally, warm to hot temperatures are anticipated each day, likely triggering Heat Advisory conditions across most coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay hydrated, avoid outdoor activity during peak heat hours, wear light clothing, and check on vulnerable individuals and pets. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) A tropical wave will bring occasional SHRA/+SHRA across the local terminals. This activity could result in brief MVFR or even IFR conditions, especially between 16/14 and 18z near IST/ISX/JSJ, and between 16/16 and 23z at JSJ/JPS/JBQ. TSRA may also develop along the Cordillera Central into the W/SW part of PR. Rain activity will return once again overnight across E-PR/USVI after 16/23z. Expect winds between 10-15 kt through 16/13z, then E/ENE winds 15-20 kt with higher gusts near 25-30kt and sea breeze variations. && .MARINE... A tropical wave will bring increasing winds, showers and isolated thunderstorms from today into Thursday morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and choppy seas are expected across the regional waters at least through Thursday. A Saharan Air Layer moving behind the tropical wave will promote hazy skies on Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance is anticipated at the end of the weekend potentially increasing showers activity across the waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will likely persist today into the end of the week across the northern, eastern, and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the USVI. A low risk is expected elsewhere; however, life-threatening rip currents may still occur, especially near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Always swim near a lifeguard and follow the advice of local beach patrols and flag warning systems. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238270 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 354 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Composite overnight satellite-derived vorticity analysis places a low-level cyclonic system centered around the Big Bend area of the Florida Peninsula, gradually advecting and propagating westward along the northern Gulf coastline. Meanwhile, further aloft, a well-defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell continues its westward trek north of Hispanola, now approaching the Northern Bahamas. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very deep, moist tropospheric profile, along with modestly backed low- level winds, and limited convective available potential energy (CAPE) to realize. KBYX Doppler radar trends have been upwards over the past hour or so, although thunderstorm coverage has been somewhat limited, likely due to weak boundary collisions in the light to gentle east to southeasterlies, as well as the aforementioned limited CAPE to take advantage of. Skies are generally partly cloudy across the Florida Keys, with temperatures in the lower 80s (outside of briefly rain-cooled island communities). For today, high pressure in the North Atlantic will continue to build westward. With its axis intersecting somewhere near the Florida Space Coast, this will aid in freshening east to southeasterlies. The freshening flow, combined with the continued deep tropospheric moisture, and the lack of any mid- and upper- level ridging, will support above normal rain and thunder chances for today. Current meteorological reasoning suggests coverage should be greatest through much of the morning hours, then lull thereafter for much of the afternoon (this is also supported by most mesoscale short-term guidance as well). Forecast soundings do suggest an overlapping period sometime in the upcoming evening and early overnight hours where an accelerated veered wind profile coincides with great moisture and instability, and we will need to watch for additional storm development during that period. Thereafter, the environmental quickly begins to dry out, and near- climatological rain chances are maintained for the balance of the work week and over the weekend. For next week, there is early global numerical weather prediction ensemble support for yet another decaying frontal boundary to park off the Southeast, with possible weak cyclogenesis splintering off the front, diving southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula. Should this occur, another bout of elevated rain and thunder chances will be possible by the middle of next week for the Keys, although plenty of time to monitor the progress of this potential system. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm over the next seven days, with highs generally in the upper 80s, and lows in the lower 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in proliferate in terms of coverage and intensity through at least the late morning and early afternoon hours. Any stronger storm will be capable of producing locally gusty winds, as well as suddenly building and confused seas. From synopsis, an area of low pressure will continue to slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend, easterly breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions will largely prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period, though expected showers and thunderstorms are likely to produce periods of sub-VFR conditions at times. Confidence is high that this will occur, but sufficient confidence in timing is not enough to pinpoint specific mention in the TAFs for the moment. VCSH mentions will provide the general timing for now, and later TAF amendments and routine issuances will cover specifics as needed. Winds will be gentle from the southeast, becoming gentle to moderate after sunrise, then slackening and becoming east to southeast overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1888, he daily record low temperature of 68F was recorded at Key West. This is also the lowest temperature ever recorded in July at Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 92 83 / 60 40 40 30 Marathon 89 82 90 83 / 60 40 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238269 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 350 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a weak front drops into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - An unsettled pattern continues today but with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. GOES water vapor channels depict upper ridging building into the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a shortwave trough that is now offshore, which was responsible (when combined with deep rich moisture) for showers/tstms with heavy rain later Sunday into Sunday night and Monday. There is still potentially a subtle boundary lingering over central VA early this morning. Warm and humid with temperatures/dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, with some patchy fog over the Piedmont. A (convectively induced) shortwave trough lifts NW of the region today across WV/western PA with the upper ridge axis in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, PW values remain >2" (130-140% of normal). Showers/tstms should develop across the higher terrain, with the general consensus amongst the CAMs to dip this activity SE toward central VA and SE MD by later this aftn and evening, with some earlier development along the western shore of the Ches. Bay and SE VA. Convective coverage should be less than yesterday. However, there are many areas vulnerable to heavy rain and the northern half of the area in in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. An isolated strong tstm is possible across the NW counties with a marginal severe risk (for damaging wind gusts) on the `doorstep` of the local area. Seasonally hot and quite humid with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100F. Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate later this evening. Otherwise, warm and humid with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat and humidity build Thursday and Friday with Heat Advisories possible. The upper flow becomes westerly Thursday with 850mb temperatures rising to 19-21C. This should support highs in the lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s during peak heating due to recent wet conditions. This should yield heat indices in the 100-105F range W to 105+F E. Heat advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area, especially along and E of the I-95 corridor. A shortwave trough slides across the northern Mid- Atlantic later Thursday afternoon, and this could trigger a few showers/tstms across the northern tier of the area. There will be a little more shear Thursday, so any tstms could become more organized and pose at least a marginal severe threat. Warm and humid Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. A more substantial trough and cold front push from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Thursday night into Friday. A milder and drier airmass will remain well N of the region, but the associated cold front is progged to drop into the local area Friday. This will interact with an airmass with PW values >2" and mid 70s surface dewpoints. Therefore, increased coverage of showers/tstms is possible by Friday. The primary threats will be locally heavy rain and isolated strong wind gusts as 30-35kt of 500mb flow could result in better storm organization. Continued hot and humid, with 105+F heat indices forecast across SE VA and NE NC where heat advisories may eventually be needed. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for afternoon/evening showers/tstms. The front may lift NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next week, but the 16/00z EPS/GEFS each retrograde the ridge to the west as lower 500mb heights develop over New England and Atlantic Canada, which could generally result in highs in the mid/upper 80s to near 90F. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 06z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is very light out of the SSW. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to persist at RIC through 10-12z (along with some MVFR vsby). Otherwise, MVFR cigs are possible at PHF and SBY after 09-10z. Any lingering MVFR cigs after 12z are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt Wednesday aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish Wednesday evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday morning. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be 10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1 PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon. However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe. Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through most of the weekend. Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4 ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today. The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the surf forecast for now. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early this afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest this morning. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238268 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Invest 93L is in the process of moving to the west away from the state after trekking across near our northernmost counties, who received plentiful amounts of precipitation. In contrast, most of the area further south saw subdued rainfall, as a drier slot covering much of West Central and Southwest Florida worked to stifle and delay convection until the late afternoon, where scattered storms were relatively short-lived due to the impending sunset. New showers and thunderstorms formed along the coast and will continue to be pushed to the north by onsetting SSE flow, but most are offshore and over the marine zones at the moment, rather than interacting with land. Inland areas should be quiet for the rest of the morning. With the new flow pattern setting in behind the low pressure system, Sea Breeze Flow Regime 7 us expected through the end of the week, which will bring a more historically familiar Florida summertime pattern of showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring in the afternoon. Today, with more SSE flow than SE, the onset of activity should begin first in our southern counties, potentially in the early afternoon, before moving up through our area a few hours later. Convective activity is expected to die down shortly after sunset. Precipitation chances are quite high today with values around 70%-80%, so the Weather Prediction Center has tagged our area with a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall, and therefore a possibility of localized flash flooding exists. Climatologically, the distribution of precipitation under this type of flow is typically concentrated along the west coast of the state. This pattern should stay intact through the end of the week, but a slight difference could be a shift to more SE flow, which would lead to more inland coverage. With this pattern of primarily afternoon showers and thunderstorms back in place, highs are expected to rise in the mid 90s for the end of this week and into the weekend due to relatively less cloud cover and rainfall during the peak hours of sunlight. Lows could climb up a few degrees as well towards the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Held VCTS mention for TPA/PIE to open period as overnight lingering convection slides north along the coast, with TEMPO restrictions before VFR expected to return. Otherwise, S/SE flow regime over the area today will favor VFR through the morning, however, a few showers possible prior to main afternoon convection as moisture surges northward across the area, but excluding mention for now due to lower confidence. VC mention beginning early afternoon with highest MVFR/LCL IFR potential mid afternoon through early evening with showers/storms directly affecting terminals before diminishing later in evening. Winds S/SE 5-10 knots overnight into morning before increasing to 10-15 knots with higher gusts mainly in afternoon, diminishing in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 South to southeast winds expected through the remainder of the week as a tropical disturbance slowly moves along the northern Gulf coast and away from the local waters. Winds will remain elevated over the next day or two, potentially approaching cautionary levels, before gradually decreasing into the weekend. Daily showers and storms remain likely, with locally higher winds and seas in/near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Aside from elevated dispersions today mainly across parts of the Nature Coast, typical summertime minimal fire concerns expected with ample moisture remaining in place across the area along with daily shower and storm chances through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 92 79 / 80 30 80 30 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 70 30 80 20 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 70 20 80 10 SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 30 BKV 91 72 93 73 / 80 30 80 20 SPG 88 78 90 79 / 80 30 80 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1238267 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Deep moisture lingers through Thursday, supporting high daily rain chances (60-80%). Highest coverage is expected across the interior. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. - Temperatures warm Friday and into the weekend, with peak heat index values reaching 102-107 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Today... The Atlantic high builds toward central Florida today as invest 93L moves westward along the northeast Gulf coast. Southeast winds develop and increase to 10-15 mph as a modest pressure gradient is established. High moisture lingers in the low to mid levels while soundings suggest a drier airmass beginning to advect above 700mb. More sunshine and surface heating combined with sufficient low level moisture should allow for rounds showers and storms this afternoon. Southeast winds should generally keep coverage highest across the interior (60-70%) with drier forecast trends focused near and east of I-95. While more organized tall storm growth could be hindered by poor mid level lapse rates and dry air aloft, steep low level lapse rates should be supportive for quick updrafts. Isolated strong storms which can overcome poor mid levels and mix with drier air aloft will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-50 mph, and small hail. Temperatures return near normal today with highs mostly ranging the upper 80s to low 90s. Areas which see limited shower and storm activity could see peak heat index values between 100-105 degrees this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures (L-M70s) remain mild with onshore flow. Thursday... A wave of moisture advects from the Bahamas on Thursday keeping one more day of above normal rain chances. Southeast winds hold under the influence of the Atlantic ridge axis. While onshore moving showers and storms will be possible along the coast in the late morning and early afternoon hours, steering flow should favor the greatest coverage across the interior in the afternoon and evening (70-80%). Overall storm parameters remain similar to what is forecast today, and isolated stronger storms will be capable of lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 45-50 mph, and small hail. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s with heat index values increasing between 102-107 degrees. Friday-Tuesday... Broad mid level ridging builds westward across central Florida through the weekend. High temperatures gradually increase into Sunday, spreading the low to mid 90s each day. Ridging is forecast to break down by Monday allowing temperatures to relax slightly. While a drier air column is expected, continued onshore flow should keep surface moisture in place. This will result in peak heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria this weekend, particularly on Sunday. Some areas may see relief from the heat in the form of scattered afternoon showers and storms. Models solutions diverge Monday and Tuesday with hints of a wetter pattern returning into next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The Atlantic ridge axis settles across the local waters through late week. South to southeast winds around 10-15 kts today and tomorrow slacken some by Friday. Deep moisture will keep high rain chances in place through Thursday with a more seasonal pattern of showers and storms returning Friday and into the weekend. Seas 2-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions continue outside of convection. Though Invest 93L continues to pull away (W/NW) from ECFL, abundant moisture will stream across the area in its wake. Light SE/S flow continues thru early morning, with southerly flow dominating during the day on Wed. Wind speeds increasing to 8-12 kts areawide, and a little gustier across coastal TAF sites. A gradual return on this day to the normal sea breeze regime, though highest PoPs look to favor the interior and esp WCFL into late afternoon/evening. PoP potential highest along the coast during the morning and early afternoon. Too early for TEMPO groups, but do have some VCSH/VCTS at various locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 90 76 / 60 10 60 10 MCO 92 75 92 76 / 70 20 80 10 MLB 89 78 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 10 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 70 10 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 20 80 10 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238266 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday. - Dangerous heat moves in Friday through the weekend. - Lower rain chances over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast. Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today. Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise. This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western half of South Florida. On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a bit less than today (Wednesday). The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if they happen) would be fairly isolated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while, it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness. To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain chances once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR will prevail away from showers and storms. Rain is expected to impact our terminals today, but the predictability as it relates to timing is low. The main threat window looks to be mid-morning through mid-afternoon across the east coast, and early afternoon into the evening at APF. Occasional gusts between 15-20kts will be possible today, with winds generally out of the SE. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 80 89 81 / 70 40 70 10 West Kendall 89 77 90 78 / 70 40 70 10 Opa-Locka 91 80 91 81 / 70 40 70 10 Homestead 88 80 90 80 / 70 50 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 81 / 70 50 70 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 70 40 70 10 Pembroke Pines 92 82 93 82 / 70 40 70 10 West Palm Beach 90 80 90 79 / 70 40 60 10 Boca Raton 91 80 91 80 / 60 40 60 10 Naples 91 77 92 77 / 80 40 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238265 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 243 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern continues through Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms and localized flooding possible. Hot and humid conditions, with a somewhat lower storm coverage is expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Flood Watch has been cancelled all areas with no additional heavy rainfall and flash flood potential expected overnight. - Areal Flood Warnings have been extended into early Wed morning for portions of southside VA where widespread road closures remain in place due to lingering areas of high water. The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge centered across the western Atlantic, ridging into the SE CONUS, with an upper level trough across the northern Plains and central/ern Canada. At the sfc, a weak pressure pattern is in place, with a quasi-stationary boundary now mainly N of the local area. Earlier showers and storms have diminished, with just a few spotty showers with embedded tstms over the MD eastern shore (mainly along the coast). Additional heavy rain and flash flooding is not anticipated, allowing the cancellation of the Flood Watch. Given a fairly widespread region of lingering high water and road closures, decided to extend the Areal Flood Watch across southside VA into early Wed morning. Otherwise, mainly dry overnight, with perhaps a few additional showers manly along the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog will probably develop overnight, but widespread dense fog is unlikely. LOws will mainly range in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow. No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible. Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion of our area reach the 105F+ criteria. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 06z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is very light out of the SSW. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to persist at RIC through 10-12z (along with some MVFR vsby). Otherwise, MVFR cigs are possible at PHF and SBY after 09-10z. Any lingering MVFR cigs after 12z are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt Wednesday aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish Wednesday evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday morning. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be 10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1 PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon. However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe. Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through most of the weekend. Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4 ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today. The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the surf forecast for now. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early Wed afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest just after midnight tonight. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238264 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 215 AM Wed... Key Messages... - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to blossom over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Expect sct coastal convection to transition inland by late morning and this afternoon as seabreeze develops. Will continue chance pops. Meager shear will keep tstms pulse like with low svr threat. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms offshore. Temps near climo with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. Thursday and Friday drier mid and upper levels keep rain chances a bit below climo, but then an increase in moisture for the weekend into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Thursday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Thursday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with potential for patchy MVFR stratus early this morning and sct convection this afternoon. Sct to bkn mid/high clouds and SSW breeze should limit fog threat this morning, though terminals could see a brief period of MVFR stratus through mid morning. Scattered showers and tstms expected to develop again this afternoon, which could briefly bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Typical summertime pattern will continue through tonight, with SSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a few gusts approach 25 kt by late afternoon/early evening over the eastern Pamlico Sound, Roanoke/Croatan Sounds but still looks too marginal for SCA. Seas will build to 2-4 ft this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms will likely impact the coastal waters and sounds through mid morning, transitioning inland this afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...Conditions continue deteriorating Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA`s given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238263 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94 to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR/IFR stratus possible tonight as lower clouds move onshore to inland through the morning. The coverage will be the main question, so have left things SCT but momentary filling in of CIGs may be possible here and there. Otherwise, afternoon showers and storms will bring spotty restrictions to terminals with clearing expected tonight. Low confidence on fog and stratus towards the end of the period, but stratus may again be possible. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and 6 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly more WSW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238262 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 121 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However, it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday. Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory; however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing one. Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land) before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow from the invest begins. The switch will flip rather quick as we move from wet and soggy to hot and sweaty. As whatever this system becomes slowly moves onshore across Louisiana, the upper ridge will quickly build over the area in its place allowing for the furnace to turn up. With increasing subsidence, expect rain chances to decrease through the weekend and into early next week but temperatures and heat indices will go up. Legit heat advisory material will be possible during this period with the combination of remnant moisture from the tropical system and the subsidence from the ridge combine to make the great gulf coast pressure cooker. Expect high heat risk days for most of the area Sunday through Tuesday and potentially extending into the middle part of the week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon across the area, especially over coastal counties. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Storms should taper off by the evening, however, ceilings may lower to MVFR tonight. Light and variable winds are expected this morning. Winds by the afternoon increase to around 5 to 10 knots and turn northeasterly to easterly across much of the area, although locations along the immediate coast could become southeasterly. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An increasing moderate to strong southeasterly flow develops on Wednesday then becomes southerly through Friday as a low pressure system may move across the northern Gulf. Southwesterly flow expected for Saturday as the low passes to our west. Please continue to follow the National Hurricane Center`s information on any possible tropical development. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 88 76 89 76 91 75 / 80 60 90 50 90 20 80 10 Pensacola 92 77 88 79 90 79 91 79 / 80 60 90 50 80 20 60 10 Destin 91 80 90 81 91 81 92 81 / 90 60 90 50 80 10 50 10 Evergreen 95 73 91 74 92 74 93 74 / 60 30 80 20 80 10 60 10 Waynesboro 98 74 90 74 90 72 93 72 / 30 30 80 10 80 10 60 10 Camden 94 74 90 74 90 74 92 74 / 40 20 70 10 80 10 60 10 Crestview 92 74 90 74 91 74 93 74 / 90 40 90 30 80 10 70 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238261 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 215 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity peak today but lasts into Thursday. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday before relief from the heat arrives this weekend. Drier and more seasonable weather is ahead next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 215 AM Update Key Messages: * Peak of heat and humidity today. Upper ridge builds into southern New England today which brings rising heights and warming temperatures aloft, making this the hottest day of the week. Heat indices this afternoon are expected to top out around 100 degrees in many areas away from immediate coast where onshore winds will keep it slightly cooler (but still hot). Along E MA coast, gradient remains weak enough to support sea breezes for a few hours from later this morning into early afternoon, then we should see winds shift back to S/SW which will boost temperatures there into 90s. Speaking of S/SW flow, we remain in the usual summertime pattern of nighttime and early morning low clouds/fog near South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands which should persist today and through the end of the week. Despite a lot of instability, ridge will also help suppress convective development as forecast soundings show a strong cap, but it`s possible we see a stray shower or even a thunderstorm form toward sunset as boundary layer cools off just a little, similar to what we saw yesterday across interior. However, we don`t have a lifting mechanism strong enough to overcome mid level cap so it will be difficult to see anything organized or potentially severe. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... 215 AM Update Key Messages: * Showers/non-severe storms possible overnight into Thu AM. * Severe storms possible late Thu afternoon/evening. * One more day of dangerous heat and humidity Thu. Lead short wave over Ohio Valley heads east tonight as upper ridge becomes suppressed and retreats offshore. It will provide larger scale lift upon an airmass that is already unstable with increasing PWATs, which should result in showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms overnight into Thu morning, especially across western/central MA and CT. High-res models show a few potential outcomes, either an area of weakening convection heading into southern New England overnight, or what`s been called the "7-10 split" where convection splits into two areas where one lifts to our north and the other shifts south, leaving much of the area dry in between. In either case, none of the convective parameters are favorable for severe weather, but certainly the anomalous moisture could bring brief downpours. Once short wave heads offshore later in the morning, subsidence in its wake should prevent any additional activity from developing until the approach of the cold front later in the afternoon and evening. This is the main time frame of concern for severe weather, especially in western/central MA and northern CT, as environment should feature plenty of instability with surface-based CAPE over 2000 J/kg, sufficient 0-6km shear of 25-30kt, decent mid level lapse rates, and strong 0-1 km shear in excess of 150 m2s2. Most of the high-res models show potential for discrete storms ahead of front with potential for wind damage and even a few tornadoes, before eventually merging into small lines or segments capable of producing wind damage. That said, there are timing differences among hi-res models and ensemble members with some showing an earlier start to afternoon development. Should that verify, that would lessen the potential for severe weather since most of the parameters noted above occur later in day, closer to cold front itself, and are less favorable during the early to mid afternoon hours. Something to keep in mind which hopefully gets resolved in later runs. Aside from the convection, we will have one more day of dangerous heat and humidity, although extent of cloud cover could limit afternoon heating. For now, we are expecting heat indices well into 90s once again, but probably not as high as what we expect today. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Updated 215 AM Key Messages: * Still hot but lower humidity Fri. * Relief from heat arrives this weekend Once cold front moves offshore Fri, W/NW flow will bring drier air into region but airmass really doesn`t cool off sufficiently until this weekend, when we should see temperatures more typical of mid July which will last into early next week. Overall, dry weather is expected but the front may return north by Sunday which would bring scattered showers/storms, before another short wave kicks everything out to sea Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Low clouds and fog will bring IFR/LIFR conditions to much of South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands through sunrise, possibly advancing into NE CT and most of RI/SE MA. These lower ceilings will retreat southward after sunrise leaving VFR conditions by early afternoon, but will then return around sunset and persist tonight once again with widespread IFR/LIFR into Thu morning. Otherwise, VFR with S/SW winds through tonight. Gradient remains weak enough to allow for sea breezes along E MA coast for a time later this morning into early afternoon, before S winds return. Later tonight, areas of MVFR ceilings develop with showers possible in western New England overnight, perhaps spreading into more of southern New England Thu morning. Conditions then improve again to VFR but we may see a round of showers/storms later in day, especially in western MA/western CT. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA for next several days, though outer waters E and S of Cape Cod/Islands may come close ahead of cold front Thu night. Main concern through end of week is areas of fog during nighttime and morning hours, in addition to scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thu morning and possibly again Thu night. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238260 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 109 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Yesterday was quite warm with very little convection. That said there were still a few storms out there but overall most of the region remained rain free and about half of the area likely remains rain free again today. This will lead to another warm one but the eastern half of the area may see some cooling rain in the afternoon and maybe as early as midday. Today will begin very warm and humid. The ridge that is helping to steer the flow and our Gulf disturbance remains entrenched across the southeastern CONUS and Lower MS Valley nosing down into southeastern TX. This is leading to very warm LL temps across the Lower MS Valley which is sinking down into southern MS and SELA but h925 temps are only around 26/27C. Under optimal conditions this would lead to mid to even upper 90s easily but this ridge again isn`t that August early September type ridge So getting much above 96 is going to be very difficult combine the fact that storms could be moving in from the east and looking at radar last night and satellite there was a large area of precip that has been displaced well west of our Gulf disturbance. This surge of moisture is already moving into the area and there is a good chance that we could see convection begin to develop along coastal MS and coastal SELA late morning/midday. In addition high clouds are already quickly spreading west and could also impact temps today and that could help keep the heat index in check some. The other issue that has been occurring for the last week or so is the mixing. We have really been able to mix these dewpoints down efficiently north of I-12 and north of I-10 in coastal MS the for some reason and that has helped keep the heat index under control in and around places like BTR and MCB. With all of that there are some question with the heat today however around the lakes and on the immediate MS coast where the moisture is higher it has been more oppressive and the only thing that will help to keep it in check will be convection...which is a concern today. That said the heat advisory that is currently out...will not make changes to it yet as see if convection does fire early today. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The extended portion of the forecast is highly focused on the system over the northeastern Gulf. Models have begun to come more in line with this system really hugging the northern Gulf but remaining on the weak side from an organization standpoint. Overall no major changes made to the forecast with the risk of very heavy rain still possible across the region mainly Thursday through Friday night but rain could linger around the area into the weekend. So first...there is still some potential for heavy rain with flash flooding possible however the confidence is not the highest given the latest trends. That said it will not take much to get some rather high rain totals over portions of the CWA given the amount of moisture over the area and favorable upper lvl environment in place. The tropical wave we are watching is still sitting at 40% of developing into the tropical depression in the next 48 hours but it is not looking very organized at this time. It moved inland yesterday over the FL peninsula but almost as soon as it moved inland it became detached with the sfc low quickly surging north while the mid lvl low continued west. By 5z the LL center was east of TLH and approaching southern GA while the mid lvl center was south of Apalachicola. So the question is can a sfc low redevelop underneath the convection and then will it just continue to barrel west towards the LA coast or will it struggle to see much if any consolidation with a very messy and disorganized system approaching the coast Thursday. At this time it is beginning to feel like we may want some consolidation as this would likely focus the heavier rain and along and south of the eventual track which would likely be the immediate SELa coast and the coastal water. However, if this is messy disorganized system convection will be more diurnal in nature. Yes that will keep us from seeing widespread rain and a complete washout everywhere but will be more favorable to seeing scattered storms which will be extremely efficient rain producers. PWS are still expected to be well over 2" and models are now explicitly showing PWS near 2.5" at times Thursday and Friday. The upper lvl setup is still very favorable Thursday and into Thursday evening so the concern may be trending to scatted storms tapping into that rather extreme moisture with a nice diffluent setup aloft and weak steering currents. The problem then becomes storms easily capable of dropping multiple inches of rain in under an hour but that alone isn`t necessarily a problem, the problem is just where that would occur. There are many locations that will have no problem handling even more than 2-3" of rain in an hour but if that falls over the wrong locations say like any of our more urban areas that will lead to big problems. Now the obligatory and we hate to say but "there is still a lot of uncertainty". Most of the time there really is and in this case there are but trends in radar and satellite along with guidance are suggesting that there is a good chance that the bulk of the heavy rain will remain along and south of the coast. Small adjustments/changes can have rather significant implications in impacts and with our system there are a few things that could lead to most of the area seeing relatively light impacts. The biggest determining factor in this case is track and there are more than a few solutions suggesting that it will struggle to really develop and remain just a little too far south with most of the rain hanging south especially since there is a good chance that a bulk of the rain will remain on the southern side of this system. At this time we will continue to advertise widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amount of 6 to 8 possible. However if trends continue these values may trend down some more or at the least the area may be a little more confined to coastal LA. The one caveat is if this just remains a disorganized mess where convection become highly diurnal in nature and that would then lead to scattered storms across the entire CWA leading to isolated pockets of very heavy rain. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the night and first half of the day tomorrow however by afternoon we will likely begin to see convection develop or move in from the east. Locations with the greatest risk of seeing convection tomorrow afternoon are along coastal MS and south of Lake Pontchartrain. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Benign conditions will continue today but convection is already quickly moving in from the east. We will begin to see impacts increase later today and through the rest of the week as a disturbance from the northeaster Gulf moves into the area tomorrow. Winds and seas will increase over local waters, Thursday through the weekend. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 96 74 90 73 / 30 40 90 30 BTR 96 77 90 75 / 30 40 90 50 ASD 95 74 87 74 / 40 70 90 60 MSY 95 79 88 78 / 40 70 100 60 GPT 95 75 88 77 / 70 60 90 70 PQL 95 74 88 76 / 80 60 90 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238258 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 207 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the east to west oriented ridge axis will continue to extend into the GA/SC coast. At the surface, The subtropical high will be the primary feature and will drive the low-level flow pattern across the forecast area. Overall, today does not look particularly active for convection. The ridge aloft will help to keep coverage down, and model soundings are rather warm and only depict MLCAPE values of up to around 1,500 J/kg. Instead, we will likely continue to see weak convection push onshore from the coastal waters within the onshore flow throughout much of the day. Any diurnal land-based convection that develops also looks to be weak and not a severe threat. Also, the locally heavy rain threat is low thanks to the progressive nature of this convection with storm motion on the order of 15-20 mph. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the low 90s, with heat indices mostly in the low 100`s and some isolated values into the mid 100`s. Tonight: Overall, little change to the pattern overnight. Any lingering land-based convection should dissipate through the early evening, though there will still likely be some shower activity over the coastal waters trying to push onshore at times. The low-level flow will start to become more south- southwest or southwest with time which should keep most of the nocturnal convection across the coastal waters off the coast. Similar lows to the last few nights, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s inland and hanging around in the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong deep layered ridge will prevail Thursday through Saturday, bringing hot and humid conditions. Friday and Saturday will feature highs in the mid/upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, and heat indices topping 108 in some places. We could need Heat Advisories for part of the area both days. An increase in upper level subsidence will limit PoPs to 20-30%. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift west of the area late in the weekend into early next week, allowing some shortwave energy to rotate in from the north. This could result in an increase in diurnal convection coverage Monday and Tuesday. Toasty conditions will continue into Monday, with possible Heat Advisories both days. Temps may cool slightly by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The main issue for through sunrise will be shower activity moving onshore and possibly producing brief periods of MVFR conditions. Over the next few hours, the best chances are expected to be around KSAV. Then around sunrise and through mid morning, the focus for shower activity should shift up more into the KJZI and KCHS area. By the early afternoon, most of the shower activity should shift inland of the terminals. Winds will be a bit stronger today with some gusts into the 16-20 knot range expected. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening hours. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Subtropical high pressure to the east will be the primary feature driving the flow across the local waters through the period. Winds today will be southerly with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range, though there could be an occasional 20 knot gust. Overnight, winds will slightly start to veer around to become more south-southwest late. Speeds should be the same, mostly 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Seas should average 3-4 feet through the period. We will likely continue to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters today within the onshore flow. This activity isn`t expected to be particularly strong and there is a low probability of strong wind gusts. High pressure will prevail Thursday through Monday, maintaining typical summertime weather in the marine area. No headlines expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238259 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern continues through Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms and localized flooding possible. Hot and humid conditions, with a somewhat lower storm coverage is expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Flood Watch has been cancelled all areas with no additional heavy rainfall and flash flood potential expected overnight. - Areal Flood Warnings have been extended into early Wed morning for portions of southside VA where widespread road closures remain in place due to lingering areas of high water. The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge centered across the western Atlantic, ridging into the SE CONUS, with an upper level trough across the northern Plains and central/ern Canada. At the sfc, a weak pressure pattern is in place, with a quasi-stationary boundary now mainly N of the local area. Earlier showers and storms have diminished, with just a few spotty showers with embedded tstms over the MD eastern shore (mainly along the coast). Additional heavy rain and flash flooding is not anticipated, allowing the cancellation of the Flood Watch. Given a fairly widespread region of lingering high water and road closures, decided to extend the Areal Flood Watch across southside VA into early Wed morning. Otherwise, mainly dry overnight, with perhaps a few additional showers manly along the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog will probably develop overnight, but widespread dense fog is unlikely. LOws will mainly range in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow. No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible. Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion of our area reach the 105F+ criteria. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 06z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is very light out of the SSW. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to persist at RIC through 10-12z (along with some MVFR vsby). Otherwise, MVFR cigs are possible at PHF and SBY after 09-10z. Any lingering MVFR cigs after 12z are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt Wednesday aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish Wednesday evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday night, outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. - Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Strong high pressure well offshore continues to keep the prevailing southerly flow across the local waters. Winds are mostly S-SE 5-10 kt with gusts from convection up to 15 kt. The pressure gradient sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure tracks well N of the area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt SW winds are expected through Wednesday. Beginning Wednesday night, SCA conditions are likely, as local probabilities now show 80-99% for 18 kt sustained winds over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Although, confidence for headlines over the coastal waters is lower, as the probability for sustained 25 kt is only up to 10%. Winds may remain elevated through the day Thursday and begin to decrease Thursday night. Since the timeframe is still a few periods out, opting to hold off on headlines for now. Waves and seas remain benign around 1 ft and 2 ft, respectively. Although likely staying benign through the forecast period, waves and seas will increase slightly Wednesday night to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively, before decreasing again Thursday night. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow as seas will build throughout the day and the swell will become more shore normal. A low risk remains for the southern beaches. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early Wed afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest just after midnight tonight. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238256 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A weak tropical disturbance will continue to move westward through the area today. Most of the convection has remained offshore during the overnight hours. As the system continues moving westward, bands of showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the system are expected to develop across the area with southerly flow. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially near the coast. Overall, the threat of flooding is non-zero, but so far it looks too isolated to warrant any flood watches. The best chance at seeing heavy rain will probably occur from mid-morning into early afternoon across the coastal areas and extend inland across the Florida panhandle and big bend. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with the cloud cover and early start to convection. For tonight, a few bands of showers and thunderstorms may linger on the east side of the system near the coast with southerly flow. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 On the backside of the tropical disturbance as it progresses west, southeast flow will be in place Thursday and PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches for most locations with likely to categorical pops in place, highest south of I10 and west of the Apalachicola river to 50% from Albany to Valdosta and north from there. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms. Beginning Friday into the weekend, the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast US from the east as the disturbance becomes absorbed in the flow. Each day gets a little warmer while rain chances slightly decrease. PWATs decrease to under 1.7 inches by Sunday as drier air becomes more evident in the column above 700 mb as the ridge builds west into the ArkLaTex. This will allow less coverage of convection, better low level mixing and higher afternoon temperatures towards the upper 90s. Heat advisories may be back in play in portions of the area beginning this weekend depending on how much mixing takes place each afternoon. Heading into the next work week, a weakness off the east coast may allow tropical moisture to wrap southwest back across the area with PWATs increasing back up to over 2 inches. If this occurs, rain chances appear to increase back to likely which will serve to break the heat from the weekend with increased convection coverage and high temps back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An unsettled pattern looks to continue later this morning and through the afternoon as a tropical disturbance (AL93) pushes westward through the area. MVFR ceilings are currently forecast for VLD and ABY for portions of early-late morning as some lower clouds push through. VFR conditions should otherwise prevail, with any terminal restrictions manifesting as brief MVFR or IFR conditions in rounds of heavy showers/thunderstorms. Both spatial and temporal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greater than a typical summertime pattern, with current guidance suggesting activity picking up as early as 12z for our southern terminals. As the disturbance pushes westward and southerly flow establishes early afternoon, scattered to widespread TSRA should develop with a general south to north progression. The timing of the rounds of convection is attempted for each terminal site in the TAFs, although there is considerable uncertainty with timing out finer mesoscale features and thus further tweaks may be necessary. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An area of low pressure will track westward today through the Florida panhandle or just offshore. Winds will turn southerly as the low moves by, with increasing winds and seas as a result. Cautionary conditions east of Apalachicola today and all waters tonight into Thursday night with advisory conditions possible. Beginning Friday and into the weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf waters with winds and seas becoming favorable with wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Humidity and rain chances will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the southern half of the area and especially in coastal areas for the next several days. The low pressure area will continue westward through Thursday with winds turning more onshore and PWATs in excess of 2 inches. 1-3 inches of rainfall, with the higher side of the range closer to the coast, appears reasonable from WPC. This will lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains as well as any training or slower moving storms. As the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall will lower as well, though this may be shortlived as moisture increases again at the beginning of the next work week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 75 91 76 / 80 20 90 10 Panama City 88 78 89 79 / 90 50 90 40 Dothan 89 75 92 74 / 80 10 80 10 Albany 91 74 94 74 / 60 10 60 0 Valdosta 93 74 95 76 / 70 10 60 10 Cross City 91 73 93 74 / 80 40 80 20 Apalachicola 86 79 87 80 / 90 60 90 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238255 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 156 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Held VCTS mention for TPA/PIE to open period as overnight lingering convection slides north along the coast, with TEMPO restrictions before VFR expected to return. Otherwise, S/SE flow regime over the area today will favor VFR through the morning, however, a few showers possible prior to main afternoon convection as moisture surges northward across the area, but excluding mention for now due to lower confidence. VC mention beginning early afternoon with highest MVFR/LCL IFR potential mid afternoon through early evening with showers/storms directly affecting terminals before diminishing later in evening. Winds S/SE 5-10 knots overnight into morning before increasing to 10-15 knots with higher gusts mainly in afternoon, diminishing in the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 92 79 / 80 30 80 30 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 70 30 80 20 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 70 20 80 10 SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 30 BKV 91 72 93 73 / 80 30 80 20 SPG 88 78 90 79 / 80 30 80 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1238253 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 * Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. * Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend. * Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to moderate seas through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions. Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the Southern U.S. For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday (highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island. The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned 594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common along and west of IH-69C. As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions could continue through late July/early August, given the time of year we`re in and model trends. Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk through the period. Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north- central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mostly clear skies and generally light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238254 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Dry, but hot today as weak high pressure builds over the region. - Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. - NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the northern Gulf on Wednesday, giving it a 40% chance of development into a tropical system in the next couple of days. Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A slight increase in mid-level ridging and drier air moving into the region will result in the low rain chances on Wednesday through early Thursday - practically the lowest rain chances we`ve had in over a week. There still might be an isolated, short-lived shower that develops thanks to daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, but overall we will be rain free through early Thursday. However, the increasing heights aloft and reduced moisture will lead to afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in spots along the I-10 corridor. Rain chances do begin to increase from the east late Thursday with chances increasing as we head into Friday. This increase in moisture will be associated with the disturbance currently located in northern Florida that the NHC is monitoring for development into a tropical system as it tracks through the northern Gulf over the next few days. NHC gives it a 40% chance of development into a tropical depression or named storm within the next 2 days - more on that in the tropical section below. Regardless of development, this disturbance will be bringing a surge in PWATs (up to 2-2.4"), so we can expect increased rain chances with locally heavy rainfall possible Friday through early Saturday. WPC has placed the I-45 corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Friday with eastern Polk, eastern Liberty, and most of Chambers county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). WPC continues the risk of Excessive Rainfall into Saturday, but shifts the threats further east with areas east of I-45 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) and the Slight Risk out of our region and more towards the TX/LA border. Looking past this potential tropical system, expect warming conditions Sunday into the start of the work week with temperatures rising back into the mid 90s (and possibly into the upper 90s). With some drier air in place, rain chances will remain on the lower-side with PoPs maxing out near 15-20% during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Isolated afternoon showers/storms will taper off this evening as light and variable winds settle in across the region. Patchy fog and CIGS may develop over portions of the region during the early morning hours of Wednesday. MVFR conditions may develop with IFR FLs possible in some spots, mostly north of Houston. Conditions improve after daybreak with VFR largely dominating across the area. Southwest winds strengthen during the daytime, shifting south/southeast during the afternoon, then becoming light again in the evening. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light onshore winds around 5-10kt (and gusts to 15kt) and seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through the next few days. Drier air has moved in, so expect much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms through early Thursday. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to increase as a tropical disturbance approaches SE TX from the northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of this disturbance and more information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters on Wednesday. NHC maintains a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours as the system moves through the northern Gulf. Regardless of development, we can expect the increased rain chances late Thursday through Friday or early Saturday. Current wave modeling does not factor in any tropical development, so its possible that wave height forecast may increase for Friday *IF* the system does strengthen. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts. Fowler && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Not much change in this discussion that hasn`t been talked about in the previous discussions. NHC is monitoring a disturbance, currently located in northern Florida, for strengthening into a tropical system giving it a 40% chance of development within the next 2 days. Conditions are favorable for development, but there remains uncertainty in the forecast track of this system. This system will move westwards through the northern Gulf, but how far west it gets before turning northwards is uncertain (for now, most guidance has it turning northwards into Louisiana before reaching our region, if it develops at all, but this guidance may change once/if a center of circulation develops), and how far offshore the center of circulation develops (a track closer to the coast means less time over water and potentially drier air impacting development). Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an increase of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers and thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through Friday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 95 75 93 76 / 10 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 80 / 0 0 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238252 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low (10-30%)chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly Victoria Crossroads. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Summer time conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend and into next week with a majority of South Texas remaining rain free. There is an increase of showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads Friday, but chances remain low (10-30%). This is in response to a potential tropical system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring that has a medium 40% chance of developing across the northeast and northern Gulf over the next 48 hours. No significant impacts are expected in S TX at this time other than a slight increase in precipitation Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Max heat indices may briefly approach 110 over the weekend across the Brush Country due to a slight increase in moisture. The slightly higher heat indices will lead to a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Expecting MVFR CIGs for ALI/LRD this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Southeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to around 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds with gusts to fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters through much of the upcoming week. Rain chances are low through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 90 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 79 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238251 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 * Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. * Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend. * Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to moderate seas through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions. Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the Southern U.S. For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday (highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island. The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned 594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common along and west of IH-69C. As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions could continue through late July/early August, given the time of year we`re in and model trends. Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk through the period. Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north- central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mostly clear skies and generally light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238248 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 70-80% through midweek as low pressure continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Cancelled the Flood Watch early at around 5pm EDT this afternoon, as the heaviest rainfall associated with Invest 93L had moved out of the area. Showers and storms have continued this evening, though rainfall amounts have not been high enough to maintain the watch. The forecast for tonight is a bit uncertain, as CAMs have struggled immensely with convection today. However, still expect showers and storms to diminish this evening overall, though a chance (~ 20-30%) will continue for the Treasure Coast overnight. Should showers or storms train over the same areas, minor flooding could result. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Currently-Tonight...Low level circulation of Invest 93L is pushing onshore north of Volusia County and remains disorganized. N/NE shear has kept persistent bands of rain and isolated storms S/SW of the center across areas near to north of a line from Orlando to the Cape. Some localized heavy rainfall totals have occurred with the heavier showers and storms, including up to 5-7 inches in northern Brevard County near Mims and Turnbull where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier today. As low shifts westward across FL into tonight, this persistent rainfall will also gradually transition west into this evening. Additional, scattered showers and storms will be possible farther southeast of the I-4 corridor with daytime heating through late afternoon/early evening. A Flood Watch continues through 8 PM from Brevard/Osceola counties northward through Lake and Volusia for the continued potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall totals up to 5-7 inches that may lead to isolated flash flooding. This activity will then diminish into this evening, with isolated onshore moving showers and possibly a storm or two along the coast from the Cape southward overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Thursday...As Invest 93L moves westward into the northeast Gulf, NHC is still giving the system a medium (40%) chance of tropical development into mid to late week as it moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Across east central FL, waves of deeper moisture (PW values up to 2-2.3") will lift northward across the area, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast (up to 70-80%). Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening, with greatest coverage focusing inland. A few stronger storms will be possible each day, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours leading to minor flooding. Hot and humid conditions are forecast each day. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak afternoon heat index values around 100-105F Wednesday and 102-107F Thursday. Friday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Tonight-Wednesday...An area of low pressure (Invest 93L) is pushing onshore across the northeast coast of FL and will continue westward through tonight before exiting into the NE Gulf Wednesday where it currently has a medium chance (40%) for tropical development into mid to late week. Poor boating conditions will continue into tonight, mainly over the offshore waters where S/SE winds will be up to 15-20 knots. Winds will then remain out of the S/SE around 10-15 knots into Wednesday. Seas will be around 2-3 feet for much of the period, except up to 4 feet offshore Volusia County into tonight. Lingering deep moisture across the area will continue development of at least scattered showers and storms over the waters, especially overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Thursday-Sunday...Subtropical ridge axis will dominate the weather pattern late week into this weekend. Winds will remain out of the southeast through late week and then S/SE into the weekend. Seas will continue to range around 2-3 feet for much of the period, with more normal shower and storm coverage forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions continue outside of convection. Though Invest 93L continues to pull away (W/NW) from ECFL, abundant moisture will stream across the area in its wake. Light SE/S flow continues thru early morning, with southerly flow dominating during the day on Wed. Wind speeds increasing to 8-12 kts areawide, and a little gustier across coastal TAF sites. A gradual return on this day to the normal sea breeze regime, though highest PoPs look to favor the interior and esp WCFL into late afternoon/evening. PoP potential highest along the coast during the morning and early afternoon. Too early for TEMPO groups, but do have some VCSH/VCTS at various locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 90 76 / 60 10 60 10 MCO 92 75 92 76 / 70 20 80 10 MLB 89 78 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 10 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 70 10 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 20 80 10 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238247 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 108 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Building heat and humidity continues this week, peaking tomorrow, but possibly lasting into Thursday or Friday as high pressure remains offshore. A cold front should bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday before relief from the heat arrives this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Isolated (a couple?) showers or garden variety thundershowers along seabreezes thru sundown, but mainly dry weather for the vast majority of Southern New England. * Low clouds and fog return, similar to last few nights. Muggy lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Rather quiet weather continues into this evening. Mainly clear to start, but already spotted fog and stratus forming off the coast. Much like past night, this fog and stratus should reach at least the coastal plains of RI and southeast MA. A light southwest wind should limit the northward extend of this across eastern MA. Thinking the I-90 is the northernmost limit. Low clouds and fog could be farther north than that within the CT River valley. Minor tweaks to bring temperatures back in line with observed trends. Previous Discussion... Remains a very warm to hot day across Southern New England, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s leading to elevated heat indices. First-order stations (ASOS METAR reports) have reported heat indices in the mid 90s as of this writing, although the usual variation exists comparing these to mesonet sites. Although we are condtionally-unstable with sfc-based CAPEs in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, lack of forced synoptic ascent and weak capping have largely stunted any showers or thunderstorms from popping up. There has been some showers along the CT-RI south coastal seabreeze, and we could see a pop-up shower or thunderstorm develop into the Merrimack Valley too due to the seabreeze there and perhaps in/around the terrain. Other than these mesoscale- driven areas, the vast majority of Southern New England ends up being dry, so kept PoP at no worse than 20% along the interior and along the south coast. Any shower or thundershower activity which pops up will diminish after sundown. Aside from that though, the forecast for the evening should end up being pretty similar to the last few overnights. Once the sun goes down, stratus/mist re-develops and returns northward from the southern coastal waters. Warm and humid evening with lows upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... 230 PM Update: Key Messages: * Hot, humid and dry Wednesday, the peak of the spell of heat and humidity. High heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. * Increasing clouds, scattered passing showers with brief downpours moving in during the second half of the overnight. Hazardous weather isn`t expected. Very warm and muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s! Details: Hot and humid weather continues into Wednesday as well, as a shortwave ridge briefly builds into Southern New England. In addition to even warmer temperatures aloft, subsidence aloft brought on by this shortwave ridge will serve to suppress any diurnal showers or thundershowers despite otherwise ample instability. Heat Advisory still remains valid, with air temps in the low to mid 90s contributing to heat indices around the upper 90s to lower 100s. Daytime seabreezes look to develop too, but these won`t do very much at all to cut into the heat and humidity. Shortwave ridge axis pulls offshore during the mid afternoon hours on Wed, and this will allow for a weak shortwave trough now over the OH Valley to slowly progress ENE through the northern mid-Atlc and Southern New England Wed evening. Increasing cloud cover from both the coastal waters and from interior western New England should keep temps warmer during the overnight with lows in the mid 70s! The shortwave trough will also bring with it a threat for showers or rumbles of thunder; with PWAT values on the rise to nearly 2" per SREF mean output, brief downpours can`t be ruled out but the coverage of showers may end up being more scattered and those that do develop should be moving along. Given those factors, we are not expected to see the really high rain rates/heavy rain footprints like we saw during the early morning hours late last week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Heat and humidity persists into Thu or Fri with increasing chances of showers/storms. * Relief arrives this weekend. We remain in hot/humid airmass through end of this week, awaiting approach of mid level short wave and fairly strong cold front which will eventually bring relief from the heat and humidity this weekend. Not seeing large timing differences with this cold front passage, which should be sometime Thursday night into Friday morning. Larger timing differences are present with this front when it likely returns back as a warm front Sunday, then moves offshore again as a cold front Monday. Still thinking Thursday is the day with the greatest risk for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Given the heat and humidity expected to be in place, a few thunderstorms could produce strong winds. The greater concern remains the possibility for downpours and localized flooding. Friday and Saturday have trended more rain-free behind the aforementioned cold front. Then had to mention more showers Sunday into Monday, although confidence in the timing is rather modest. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Low clouds and fog will bring IFR/LIFR conditions to much of South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands through sunrise, possibly advancing into NE CT and most of RI/SE MA. These lower ceilings will retreat southward after sunrise leaving VFR conditions by early afternoon, but will then return around sunset and persist tonight once again with widespread IFR/LIFR into Thu morning. Otherwise, VFR with S/SW winds through tonight. Gradient remains weak enough to allow for sea breezes along E MA coast for a time later this morning into early afternoon, before S winds return. Later tonight, areas of MVFR ceilings develop with showers possible in western New England overnight, perhaps spreading into more of southern New England Thu morning. Conditions then improve again to VFR but we may see a round of showers/storms later in day, especially in western MA/western CT. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Sub-SCA winds and seas through Wednesday night with modest SW flow persisting. Patchy marine fog and stratus could hamper visibility for mariners tonight. Dry weather on Wednesday but we could see scattered showers develop on the waters overnight Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning along with returning marine fog. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238246 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1248 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weak low pressure center will continue to move westward across the Florida Panhandle through tonight, which will continue a moist south to southeast flow across NE FL/SE GA. This will allow for the East Coast sea breeze to push inland to the US 301 corridor, then interact with the lingering tropical moisture in place across NE FL where PWATs will remain above 2 inches and expect numerous to widespread showers and storms again this afternoon/evening, with heavy rainfall the main threat, although a few isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will still be possible, along with some weak rotation possible in some of the more intense storms since area will remain on the East side of the departing low pressure system. Slightly lesser convection expect along the NE FL coastal areas and across SE GA, where scattered showers and storms are expected. Max temps should rebound into the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast, and dew points temps into the mid/upper 70s will still push Heat indices to 100-105F, but still below heat advisory criteria. Convection will linger over inland areas along the I-75 corridor through the evening hours with heavy rainfall threat until midnight, then just a few isolated showers possible during the overnight hours in the humid airmass. Low temps in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will build to the east Thursday, with ridge extending across forecast area. The ridge will move toward the southeast Friday, as a trough develops over the southeastern US. A flow from the south/southwest will provide moisture for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The region will be between high pressure to the southeast, and the trough across the southeastern US over the weekend into early next week. A moist flow from the southwest will keep chances for mainly diurnal precipitation in the forecast. An elongated area of low pressure may develop along the southeastern US Tuesday. The development of this low will increase precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 South to Southeast winds will continue at 5-10 knots this morning, and with the moist airmass will need to keep at least VCSH at the regional terminals with rainfall chances in the 10-20% range through the morning hours, along with TEMPO MVFR CIGS at times. Diurnal heating today will allow for scattered showers to develop for coastal terminals later this morning and will need to keep PROB30 groups at CRG/JAX for TSRA during the 16-20Z time frame, while much higher rainfall chances at VQQ/GNV as the East Coast sea breeze pushes slowly inland triggers numerous TSRA and expect to need TEMPO groups from the 18-22Z range at VQQ and 20-24Z range for GNV. Convection will fade at coastal TAF sites towards the end of the TAF period, but will continue to be possible at GNV until the 04-06Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward across the Florida Panhandle today and tonight with south to southeast winds continuing at Caution levels. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the southeast states through Thursday. The high will shift south and extend across south Florida late Friday into the weekend as a surface front lingers across Georgia. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 95 74 / 30 20 40 10 SSI 87 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 10 JAX 92 76 94 76 / 40 30 50 10 SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 50 20 60 10 GNV 92 73 94 74 / 70 50 70 10 OCF 91 73 92 75 / 80 60 80 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
