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| #1261072 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 340 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 * Moderate rip current risk will persist across most beaches of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands this weekend. Breezy southeast winds will continue to create hazardous swimming conditions. * Breezy southeast winds will bring fast-moving showers each day. Brief heavy rain may cause ponding on roads and reduced visibility, especially across windward areas. * Warmer-than-normal temperatures will prevail across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands over the next few days. Expect hotter afternoons and milder-than-usual nights compared to typical February and March conditions. * Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore Waters, and Caribbean Passages through the weekend. Fresh to Strong winds, producing choppy and rough seas, will create dangerous conditions for small craft. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 Overnight conditions were generally calm across the USVI, with little or no rainfall. Meanwhile, a pocket of moisture brought showers mainly across east and south Puerto Rico, while the rest of the islands observed mostly quiet weather. Still over the region, a layer of cirrus clouds is moving across the northeastern Caribbean, while the east-southeast winds brought some low-level clouds. While writing this discussion, we observed temperatures in the upper 70s across the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or low-70s along the coast, and in the mid-60s and even cooler across the higher elevations and valleys. Winds were mainly land breeze across the leeward sides of the islands, from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph, with some higher gusts at coastal stations in the windward locations. The Azores High will dominate our local weather pattern, promoting breezy to locally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few days. Model guidance indicates 925 MB winds above normal levels (around the 75th percentile of the local climatology for this month). Although we expect good periods of sunshine or mostly clear skies, these breezy winds will bring pockets of moisture daily, resulting in quick-moving showers, especially across the windward locations. Then, by the afternoon, under the southeast wind flow, we cannot rule out some showers developing across the northwest quadrant of PR and downwind from the USVI. As a result, at times we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, leading to ponding of water across portions of the islands. Model guidance suggests near-normal to above-normal temperatures at 925 MB during the next few days. This trend could indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures across both PR and the USVI each day. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 At the beginning of the long-term period, a broad surface high- pressure system will be positioned over the northeastern Atlantic, while another builds across the western Atlantic. This pattern will promote mainly easterly winds on Tuesday, shifting to predominantly northeasterly winds for the remainder of the period. As the pressure gradient tightens across our region, breezy to windy conditions are likely from Tuesday onward. As a result, winds will be one of the primary weather concerns. The wind risk will fluctuate from limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands. Residents should secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be blown around or damaged. The latest model guidance suggests that moisture content will remain variable, oscillating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable water values are expected to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers, particularly during the overnight and morning hours across windward sectors, followed by afternoon convection each day over interior and western Puerto Rico. Fast-moving showers driven by strong winds should reduce rainfall accumulation and therefore limit the flood potential. Around midweek, upper-level dynamics will become more favorable, with improved ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft (around -9 degrees C). These conditions could support a few isolated thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon, if convection develops. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail, with passing showers mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands. The 925 mb temperature outlook indicates above-normal values at the beginning of the period, followed by a decrease to near-average levels for the remainder of the forecast. Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-80s across lower elevations of the islands and from the mid-70s across higher elevations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail today. Although pockets of moisture embedded in the prevailing winds will result in some quick passing SHRA/-SHRA. During the afternoon, between 28/16-23z, some showers will develop across the interior and northwest. We do not anticipate extensive impacts to terminals. Expect SE winds at 5-10 kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 28/13z at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and 30 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 A broad surface high over the Atlantic will continue to tighten the local pressure gradient and promote fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain near the region, another broad surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic at the start of the next workweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds. Expect EESE winds to back slightly to the east- northeast by midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise caution. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 330 AM AST Sat Feb 28 2026 Nearshore buoys have already shown decreased wave heights early this morning, which has resulted in somewhat lower breaking wave action along local beaches. However, breezy to windy winds will create favorable conditions for the development of rip currents across the region, prevailing through the weekend and early next week. Therefore, a moderate risk of rip currents will persist for most of the local beaches in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly along expose beaches. Looking ahead, another northerly swell will likely arrive by midweek next week, potentially resulting in hazardous beach conditions once again. For localized and updated rip current information, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ733. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ741. && $$ |
| #1261071 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 239 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected today into the weekend. 2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 239 AM EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. A coastal trough is still lingering off the Carolina coast this morning, bringing cloud cover to portions of our area. All of the rain has shifted south, and the local area has remained dry overnight. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, but nothing too significant in terms of reduction of visibilities. The coastal system will be departing the region today, with high pressure expected to build across the area. Despite the light northerly flow, temperatures will still be able to moderate back to slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s (55-60F on the Eastern Shore and immediate coast). Sunday will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing the aforementioned front moves through the forecast area Sunday. There is a chance that a quicker front would lead to abruptly falling temperatures and a large north-south gradient in high temps across our CWA, while a slower front would allow for a longer period of mild temperatures. Regardless of the timing of the front, well above temperatures are forecast for most of the area. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock in the wake of Sunday`s spring-time highs. Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air late Monday into early Tuesday. The past few model suites have depicted the high to our north becoming increasingly progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across the area, and probabilities for both ice and snow accumulation continue to drop with the 00z guidance. Due to dropping probs and very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically removed any accumulation of wintry weather at this point. With that being said, some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces, could still develop for the Tuesday morning commute. We will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary.. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, enamel`s upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature enamel`s well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. Have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend, as there is not much support at this time for a lingering cooler airmass. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 107 AM EST Saturday... Generally VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals this morning, though ECG and ORF may see some MVFR to IFR CIGs in the coming hours. Some BR development is also possible, with the highest confidence being at SBY, so have included mention reduced VIS there. Additionally, have included TEMPOs to try and capture the lower CIGs through around sunrise, then conditions should start to improve thereafter. Winds will remain light from the N/NE, becoming variable at times, through the TAF period. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional (wintry?) precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front now offshore of the southeast coast, with winds over the local are generally NNE ~10kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. Weak high pressure centered north of the local waters will continue to ridge down the east coast through this aftn/evening. Winds remain ~10 kt or less through this evening, eventually backing to the NNE late tonight and early on Saturday. Similar conditions expected for Saturday, as weak low pressure slides NE along the front off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range. Winds briefly veer around to the SSE late Saturday, turning offshore to the SSW and Sunday morning ~10 kt ahead of the next system. That next system arrives Sunday, and will bring some rather abrupt sensible weather changes! Sprawling cold high pressure builds S from central Canada into the upper Great Lakes, nudging a backdoor cold front south through the local waters Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold air advection behind that front, along with enough of a compressing pressure gradient will combine for quickly increasing N/NE winds late Sun aftn through Monday. In-house wind probabilities are near 80-100% for winds >18kt Sunday night into Monday morning, and SCA conditions appear likely for much of the marine area, though winds are a bit more marginal for the upper rivers. On the coastal waters, building wind waves allow seas to increase to 4-5 ft N and 5- 7 ft S Sunday night through at least Monday night, into Tuesday morning over southern waters). 5-6 ft seas over southern waters well into the day Tuesday, before seas finally subside by the middle of next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return for the latter half of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261070 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1233 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend, especially in the coastal areas. - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of next week. - Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 This weekend will be featuring mostly sunny skies during the daytime with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s, but then mostly cloudy skies and areas of fog expected during the overnight hours. Fog will have the greatest chance of forming along the coast as sea fog rolls in from the waters during the overnight and early morning hours. The fog should scatter out through the mid-morning hours, but some patchy sea fog may linger in the coastal waters into the afternoons. The abnormally warm weather should lead to warming ocean temperatures, so sea fog potential does decrease as we head into the new week. A building upper-level ridge will begin to position itself over eastern Texas Monday into Tuesday leading to even warmer weather with highs in the mid-80s expected by Tuesday with some pockets of upper 80s possible in the Brazos Valley. An upper-level low moving through the Great Basin region will push the aforementioned high pressure to the east on Wednesday. This will set up the upper- level pattern through the remainder of the week: high pressure to the east, troughing to the west, with southwesterly flow aloft between those two features set-up over SE Texas. Forecast uncertainty does increase as we head into the second half of next week as a couple of cold front approach the region. The first will be Wednesday into Thursday, and at this time this front appears to stall near the I-35 Corridor. However, passing weaknesses aloft and increased PWATs will lead to a chance of rain across SE Texas on Wednesday. And if this front ends up making its way deeper into SE Texas, then PoPs will likely increase. Another front may approach the region next weekend as well, but its a bit too soon to get into the details. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Northeasterly to southeasterly winds will trend towards becoming light and variable going into the evening hours. The main story continues to be patchy to areas of dense fog. Drier air in the wake of a weak cold front continues to encompass most of the area except right along the coast where sea fog is already lurking offshore. This drier air will gradually modify overnight as dew points increase, especially near and south of I-10. Model guidance reflects a rather sharp cutoff between LIFR conditions due to dense fog and VFR conditions. The highest confidence for patchy fog is south of I-10 and west of I-45. IAH looks to be right on the edge. Given the potential for fog advecting off of Lake Houston, I kept in the TEMPO for them overnight. Any fog/low ceilings that develop will dissipate around 15Z-16Z making way for VFR conditions and southeasterly winds around 7-10 kt through the afternoon. Expecting another round of reduced visibilities/ceilings Saturday night into Sunday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Areas of dense sea fog are expected to persist through Saturday morning. The coastal waters, Matagorda Bay, and lower Galveston Bay will have the highest coverage of dense fog, with patchy dense fog expected for the upper Galveston Bay. The fog is expected to retreat from the Bays during the mid-morning hours, but may linger in the coastal waters through the afternoon. Another round of fog is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chance for dense fog is looking lower Sunday night into Monday morning as persistent warm weather aids in rising SSTs, and thus limiting sea fog development. Otherwise, expect low seas and light onshore winds to prevail into early next week. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 58 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 73 62 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ226-227- 235>238-335>338-436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355. && $$ |
| #1261069 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 113 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas of Fog & Sea Fog Tonight & Early Saturday. Localized dense fog, especially over areas that received higher rainfall amounts Friday - Waves of Showers & Isolated Storms through Saturday. Main Impact Area Tonight & Saturday: Northeast FL South of FL20 - Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds Expected Next Week. Increasing Marine Hazards Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT: - Isolated thunderstorms possible during the first half of the day for Marion, Putnam and Flagler Counties. - Localized dense fog possible this morning and again tonight A slowing cold front is moving its way southward through the area early this morning, becoming more diffuse in the process. The leading edge of the front is expected to come to a stall across central FL through this afternoon. Given the broad but weak convergence within the frontal zone and a passing energetic shortwave aloft, scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon hours across Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties. Elsewhere, a drying westerly mid level flow will keep conditions rain-free. Though rain isn`t expected, mostly cloudy to overcast conditions are expected with the low level moisture in place. By the evening, the drier westerly flow aloft shifts southward, ending the chance for rain. With the weak post-frontal flow and gradual drying will scatter out cloud cover this evening before low stratus and patchy inland fog develops overnight into Sunday. Onshore flow behind the front will lead to cooler highs at the coastal zoned areas, reading in the mid/upper 60s while inland areas warm to the low 70s. Though stratus will develop, temps will still cool to the mid/upper 40s to low 50s areawide. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During the Period: - Breezy onshore winds developing during the day Monday Overall quiet day is expected Sunday and expected to continue into Sunday Night as weak high pressure will be in control. Some higher clouds will start to filter in from the northwest later in the day and into Sunday Night, but otherwise more sun than clouds on Sunday with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. A weakening northeasterly breezy will keep things a bit cooler closer to the immediate coastline where more readings in the upper 60s will be common. Despite some of the higher clouds across the area, very light winds with weak high pressure building more directly over the area will allow for at least modest radiational cooling Sunday Night with temps in the 40s to near 50 expected inland and low 50s near the coast and St. Johns River Basin. A dry backdoor front will move towards the area Sunday Night and push through the region throughout the day Monday and into Monday Night, wedging a ridge of high pressure down the southeastern seaboard. This ridge combined with a developing inverted trough over area waters will set up a northeasterly wind type of event, with winds in the 10-20 mph range expected and gusts up to around 30 mph at times, the higher range of course being closer to the coast. Given the lower water levels with the drought and overall lack of longevity with the event, no significant coastal flooding type of concerns at this time. Isolated coastal shower chances will also increase during Monday and stick around through Monday Night with this type of setup. High temps Monday will be similar to those on Sunday as the northeast surge works its way down the coast, with mid 60s to low 70s by the coast and mid 70s to near 80 inland. Lows in the 50s will be common on Monday Night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights During the Period: - Breezy onshore flow and coastal shower chances likely to continue through at least Tuesday Coastal troughing/high pressure ridging regime looks to remain in place through at least Tuesday before high pressure to the north starts to shift east/southeastward into the Atlantic mid week, shifting wind direction more southeast to southerly for later in the week. Continued onshore flow and a lingering diffuse boundary/offshore trough will generally persist showers closer to the coast throughout the week, which look to increase for the entirety of the area by late week as the environment becomes for warm and moist as a whole. Temperatures will trend above normal for the long term, especially inland. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Tough forecast for the next few hours as sites may shift from LIFR to VFR conditions for temporary periods. However, low clouds should keep significant stratus and fog from developing fro the next couple of hours. There is still a high chance of LIFR/IFR ceilings to redevelop around 09z/10z and linger through most of the morning. A prolonged low stratus deck is expected through the morning which will slowly lift to LIFR by 14z/15z and then to a low-MVFR toward 18z. It appears that drier air will begin to scatter out ceilings this evening temporarily before IFR/low-MVFR stratus begins to form again early Sunday. Winds will be light, at or below 10 knots, from the north and north-northeast. && .MARINE... A cold front over the waters will move south of the area by Saturday morning. Areas of fog will likely develop for portions of the waters tonight through Saturday morning with low visibility leading to hazy or locally foggy conditions at times. North to northeast winds will then increase midday Saturday, reaching Exercise Caution Levels. High pressure will lead to a light onshore flow Sunday before a possible strong surge of northeast winds reaches the waters with a back door cold front on Monday. Winds and seas may reach small craft advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will turn more onshore through the middle of next week with coastal troughs developing bouts of showers over the waters. Rip Currents: Low-end moderate risk today with increasing north-northeasterly winds and surf building to 2-3 feet along the NE FL beaches. Low risk is expected for SE GA beaches. Similar expectations are forecast Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will continue to push south of the region today, with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms possible through the afternoon over southern areas of northeast FL counties including the Ocala National Forest. High pressure and a northeasterly flow develops behind the front, which will be the primary feature through early to mid next week. A coastal trough will develop on Monday which will increase the onshore flow strength as well as shower potential near the coast through Tuesday before weakening by mid week as high pressure moves east of the region. With the onshore flow, mixing heights and dispersions will be generally good inland, and fair closer to the coast where more stable marine influence is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog are expected through early to mid morning today. Patchy fog will also be possible Sunday Morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 47 78 47 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 64 51 68 52 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 68 49 75 49 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 65 52 69 52 / 30 10 0 0 GNV 74 49 79 49 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 75 50 79 50 / 40 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261068 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 105 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Progression of rain in the near term has sped up leading to a longer dry period over the weekend lasting into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Overcast skies with relatively light rain lingering along the coast into Saturday morning before a weak low pushing out to sea can pull moisture away from the area leading to clearing conditions with warming temps for remainder of weekend. 2) Growing signal for a fast moving low traversing the eastern CONUS early next week bringing brief rainfall. Aviation...Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected to last into Saturday morning. IFR/LIFR conditions in BR/FG may redevelop Saturday night. Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape tonight and Saturday. Next period of likely widespread SCA conditions SUN night into TUE. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front pushed S of the FA earlier this morning, shifting winds from SW to N behind it. Area of heaviest and most widespread rainfall is currently pushing off the coast with some lighter though more scattered precip will remain possible into SAT morning. SAT, the shortwave aloft begins to push offshore which will aid in the further organization of a weak low to develop and ride the Gulf Stream slowly NEward through the day SAT. This low will act to pull clouds and moisture offshore away from the the area through the day SAT and SAT night, which will help dry out the next frontal passage expected SUN night into MON. Winds briefly become SWerly ahead of the next front, allowing MaxTs SUN to get into the low 70s under sunny skies. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next potential system will come through the area early next week as a quick moving low zips across the central plains and mid- Atlantic. Precipitation amounts look to be a bit lower for this system compared to today`s with the low traveling along the boundary passing to the W and N of the FA. Limited coverage of SChc to Chc PoPs late MON and TUE with dry weather mid to late-week. Temps warm in generally Serly flow this period with MaxTs getting into the upper 70s and maybe even 80s FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Satellite imagery shows a widespread area of low stratus blanketing the Carolinas at this time. Within this area, IFR/LIFR CIGs are common, along with MVFR/IFR VIS. A cool and moist northeasterly flow regime should allow these conditions to continue into Saturday morning. While drastic fluctuations are not expected, CIGs may waffle between 300-600ft at times, before eventually beginning to lift to MVFR and then VFR by Saturday afternoon. This looks like more of a stratus event as opposed to a FG event, and widespread LIFR/IFR VIS is not expected. VFR conditions Saturday afternoon look to transition to an increased risk of BR/FG development Saturday night thanks to recent rainfall and good radiational cooling conditions. The latest guidance shows a 30-50% chance of IFR, or lower, conditions redeveloping Saturday night. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on Sunday with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast to move through the area early next week, and this system should provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC. && .MARINE... NEerly winds 10-15G20kt behind front to the S of area waters. moving through the region. Rain lingering into early SAT until low pressure traveling along the boundary works NEward up the GStream through the day pulling moisture away from the area. Some sea fog possible, most notably over Nern waters overnight into SAT morning. NEerly winds will approach SCA criteria over FAR outer waters Cape to Cape overnight and through much of the day SAT. Would issue SCA if areal coverage coverage or duration were more sustained, but the 25kt gusts are forecast to bounce in and out of the 20nm zones through the near term. Nerly winds weaken to be AoB 10kt SUN before becoming SWerly ahead of the next front the cross area waters SUN night into MON morning. Buoy data show seas generally 3-4ft@5-8sec with some increase overnight into SAT with the winds. Seas fall into SUN becoming 2-3ft before quickly building again. Outlook: Next period of widespread SCA likely SUN night into early next week as strong NEerly surge fills in behind front. NEerly winds 15-25G30KT building seas 6-8ft, 8-9ft over Cape to Cape outer waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261067 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Areas of fog are expected this morning, particularly across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and portions of the Florida panhandle. - A high risk of life threatening rip currents is expected for the eastern panhandle beaches today. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected by the middle of next week with highs reaching the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Areas of fog are expected this morning with residual low level moisture in the wake of Friday`s rainfall combined with clearing skies and light winds. The highest chance of fog is across portions of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida panhandle. Once the fog dissipates by mid-morning, expect partly cloudy skies with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. The coolest temperatures today are expected across the northeast portions of the area with light northeast winds. Overnight lows tonight are expected to range mostly from the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A warming trend is expected for next week as upper level ridging builds off the east coast and troughing digs into the western states. Highs are expected to increase into the low to mid 80s by the middle of the week with overnight lows mainly in the 50s, warming to near 60 by the end of the week. Rain looks scarce overall. There is a low chance for a few showers with return flow on Thursday and Friday, but this does not currently look significant. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Cigs and vsbys will be falling through the night early this morning with IFR/LIFR conditions expected at all terminals. Light to calm winds with a stable/moist atmosphere is the culprit. Conditions will begin to improve by mid morning, with VFR conditions returning for all TAF sites by mid-afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Winds behind a cold front will be northeasterly today, then more out of the east early next week with fresh breezes possible during the overnight and morning hours. Easterly winds near 20 knots are expected for the waters west of Apalachicola Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Dry weather is expected to return for the next several days, but relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. Light northeast transport winds are expected through the weekend, then becoming east to southeast next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 106 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 There are no flooding concerns for the next several days with little rainfall expected. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 50 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 74 53 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 72 49 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 70 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 72 48 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 76 48 80 47 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 54 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ007>011. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>129- 142>147-155>159. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261066 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 107 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain have decreased for the early week system. Timing for precip onset Monday has also been delayed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. 2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. Low-level cloud cover has been gradually scouring over central VA this afternoon with a few peaks of sunshine filtering through the cirrus deck aloft. However, the frontal system which brought the widespread rain yesterday has now stalled just offshore of the Carolina coast. This is allowing scattered showers to persist over far srn/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are coolest across the SE (mid- upper 40s) and "mildest" to the N and W (lower-mid 50s). Low-end PoPs remain in the forecast for far SE VA and NE NC into early tonight, with dry conditions then expected thereafter. Depending on cloud cover and winds, fog could also develop late. Guidance is honing in on three specific locations for the potential: 1) NE NC, especially near the Albemarle Sound; 2) portions of the Piedmont W of I-95; and 3) the MD Eastern Shore. Confidence isn`t particularly high in dense fog, so limited it to the "patchy" wording at this time. The weekend will generally be mild and dry. Saturday`s highs will trend a few degrees above average with mid 60s expected inland. Closer to the coast, a sea breeze off the chilly water will likely keep those near the immediate coast cooler and in the 55-60 F range. Another good shot at above normal temps is expected Sunday, especially early in the day. Uncertainty remains higher than usual due to a backdoor cold front that is forecast to drop south in the afternoon and evening. A quicker passage would yield cooler temps for the day and vice versa for a slower passage. Regardless, the warmest temps are across for southern and southwest forecast of the forecast area (generally SW of the US-460 corridor) with upper 60s to lower (potentially mid) 70s. Further NE toward the I-64 corridor and Northern Neck, temps likely stay in the 60s. The Eastern Shore will be the losers in this setup as temps struggle to get out of the 50s. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock. Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather makes a return Monday through the midweek period. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft. The trend in the model guidance today has been for a slower arrival of precip, along with lighter precip overall. This delays much of the precip onset until later Monday and Monday night. The slower arrival also means the low-level cold air will be very shallow, likely favoring sleet or light freezing rain/drizzle. Even so, temperatures will be marginal (31-32 F at most) for much, if any, impact. Correspondingly, probabilities from all modeling systems (NBM/GEFS/EPS) have trended down, with the still-aggressive GFS not as aggressive as of 12z. Some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces, could still develop for the Tuesday morning commute. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 107 AM EST Saturday... Generally VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals this morning, though ECG and ORF may see some MVFR to IFR CIGs in the coming hours. Some BR development is also possible, with the highest confidence being at SBY, so have included mention reduced VIS there. Additionally, have included TEMPOs to try and capture the lower CIGs through around sunrise, then conditions should start to improve thereafter. Winds will remain light from the N/NE, becoming variable at times, through the TAF period. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions prevailing through the weekend. High pressure builds down into the region Sunday into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional (wintry?) precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs are likely for much of the region. Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front now offshore of the southeast coast, with winds over the local are generally NNE ~10kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. Weak high pressure centered north of the local waters will continue to ridge down the east coast through this aftn/evening. Winds remain ~10 kt or less through this evening, eventually backing to the NNE late tonight and early on Saturday. Similar conditions expected for Saturday, as weak low pressure slides NE along the front off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range. Winds briefly veer around to the SSE late Saturday, turning offshore to the SSW and Sunday morning ~10 kt ahead of the next system. That next system arrives Sunday, and will bring some rather abrupt sensible weather changes! Sprawling cold high pressure builds S from central Canada into the upper Great Lakes, nudging a backdoor cold front south through the local waters Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold air advection behind that front, along with enough of a compressing pressure gradient will combine for quickly increasing N/NE winds late Sun aftn through Monday. In-house wind probabilities are near 80-100% for winds >18kt Sunday night into Monday morning, and SCA conditions appear likely for much of the marine area, though winds are a bit more marginal for the upper rivers. On the coastal waters, building wind waves allow seas to increase to 4-5 ft N and 5- 7 ft S Sunday night through at least Monday night, into Tuesday morning over southern waters). 5-6 ft seas over southern waters well into the day Tuesday, before seas finally subside by the middle of next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return for the latter half of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261065 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1257 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Rain and storm chances increase through the remainder of today, continuing through Saturday as a front approaches the Florida peninsula. - A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather is forecast on Saturday southward of Kissimmee and Cape Canaveral; lightning strikes, wind gusts, and hail will all be possible with storm activity. - Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters behind the front. - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the extended period, though isolated onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out from Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Current-Saturday...Prevailing southwesterly flow has resulted in advection of warm, moist air across east central Florida this afternoon, with some mid and upper level energy supporting the development of showers across the Gulf. These showers are currently moving eastward across the Florida peninsula and have began creeping into Lake County, with coverage of showers anticipated to increase through the remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, interacting with the eastward-moving activity. Rain chances are forecast to remain high (60-80%) into the overnight hours and Saturday as a cold front draped across the southeastern US moves closer towards the peninsula. Shower development will then primarily be frontal-driven into Saturday, though the east coast sea breeze will also act to enhance activity tomorrow afternoon. While the rain is more than welcome across the drought-stricken Florida peninsula, widespread rainfall totals of 0.5-1" will not help much with drought concerns. Localized higher amounts exceeding 1" cannot be ruled out in some locations. In addition to increasing shower coverage, there is also support for isolated to scattered storms this evening and again on Saturday. Modest instability across east central Florida (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) combined with modest low-level lapse rates and 500 mb temperatures ranging from -12 to -11C will support the development of isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, especially given a weak wave of energy in the mid-levels and the intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. With the modest instability and various lifting mechanisms present, lightning will be possible with activity, and there have already been a couple of strikes across east central Florida this afternoon. Drier air in the mid- levels has led to an uptick in DCAPE values (700-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, which means gusts to 50 mph will be possible with the storms that are able to intrude into the dry layer and mix downward. This will become less of an issue late tonight as the column continues to moisten overnight and DCAPE decreases. In addition to the winds, the cold temperatures aloft support a low chance for some small hail with the strongest storms. Boundary interactions between outflow boundaries and the east coast sea breeze could also lead to brief spin-up or two, though confidence in this remains low. By Saturday, the approaching frontal boundary will provide the main source of forcing for storm development, with additional support coming from the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon, especially across the southern portions of east central Florida. MUCAPE values jump to 1000-1500 J/kg across most of east central Florida tomorrow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates will support the potential for deeper convection. DCAPE values remain around 600-800 J/kg, and there is also a noted increase in the mid-level winds with the closer arrival of the mid-level trough overhead. This will support the potential for stronger wind gusts with storm activity. 500 mb temperatures continue to cool, with modeled soundings indicating values falling to -14 to -13C. All of these factors combined with guidance hinting at a decent chance for frontal and east coast sea breeze interactions has prompted SPC to highlight areas southward of Kissimmee and Cape Canaveral in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storm development. The primary hazards with storm development tomorrow will include frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a low chance for hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Boundary interactions will also need to be monitored for brief, weak spin ups, especially down south where interactions with the sea breeze occur. Activity will generally move offshore into the overnight hours on Saturday, diminishing from north to south as the front slowly shifts southward Saturday night. Afternoon temperatures today continue to remain on track to reach the 80s areawide, falling into the 60s tonight. Saturday, the temperature gradient tightens with the approach of the front from north to south, with highs ranging from the low 70s across Volusia and northern Lake to the low 80s across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Lows Saturday night will be closer to normal behind the front, falling into the 50s nearly areawide. Sunday-Friday...Sunday acts as a transition period for the mid- levels, as a broad trough shifts offshore and allows for a gradual build of ridging through next week. At the surface, northeast winds on Sunday become more onshore into Monday as an area of surface high pressure strengthens to the north, with winds remaining onshore through most of the upcoming week. This onshore flow in combination with a weak stalled boundary to the north of east central Florida is forecast to favor the development of some isolated to scattered shower activity across the local Atlantic waters, with a low chance (20-30%) for some onshore-moving showers each afternoon from Monday onward. At this time, there is low confidence in any storm activity with these showers, but trends will continue to be closely monitored. Temperatures across east central Florida are anticipated to gradually warm through the extended period as the high sets up to the north, keeping afternoon highs and overnight near to above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Increasing moisture and the gradual approach of a cold front will lead to increasing rain and storm chances across the local Atlantic waters tonight through Saturday. Rain chances range from 60-80% with a 20-30% chance for storm development. Any storms that manage to develop may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots and even small hail. Additionally, brief spin-ups cannot be entirely ruled out, especially where storms interact with the east coast sea breeze, though confidence remains lower on this. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 4 feet through Saturday, with northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots. By Sunday, the front is anticipated to sink south of the area, resulting in slightly drier conditions. High pressure develops just to the north of the local waters, with onshore winds developing on Monday and persisting through much of next week. Light, isolated onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out across the waters, and a 20-40% chance of rain is forecast through much of the extended forecast. Wind speeds increase to 15 to 25 knots late Monday through at least Wednesday and seas respond by building to 5 to 9 feet, continuing through late next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed across all legs of the local Atlantic waters due to the poor to hazardous boating conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1232 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue to move eastward towards the coast and will impact TIX/MLB through 07Z, with SHRA/TSRA pushing through VRB-SUA through about 10Z. Additional SHRA will persist through the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. Widespread MVFR/IFR and even some LIFR CIGs are beginning to spread across the northern terminals, and will continue to spread across ECFL over the next hour or two and persist through much of Saturday. Slight model disagreement with how long the lower CIGs will linger, as well as how low the CIGs will reach. Have leaned more towards LAMP guidance, with the CIGs generally lifting to VFR Saturday evening (after 03Z). Light and variable winds this morning will become SW/W and increase to 5-10 KT by mid-morning Saturday, turning N/NE in the afternoon behind the front before becoming light once again Saturday overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Despite increasing moisture, sensitive fire weather conditions persist across east central Florida today into Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers are forecast across the area this afternoon through Saturday as the result of an approaching cold front. In addition to showers, there is a low chance (20-30%) of storm development across east central Florida this afternoon through Saturday. Any storms that manage to develop may be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, which could result in new fires across east central Florida. In addition to the lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out, which could lead to greater fire spread for new and even existing fires. Due to these factors, the Significant Fire Potential threat remains moderate for today and high into Saturday. The front moves south of the area by early Sunday, with minimal fire weather concerns aside from the ongoing drought conditions. Winds become more onshore by the start of the work week, with enhancements each afternoon due to the east coast sea breeze causing wind speeds to reach 10 to 15 mph. Isolated onshore-moving showers possible through the extended forecast most afternoons. Minimum RH values remain below critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 55 72 55 / 40 10 10 0 MCO 74 58 77 58 / 60 30 10 0 MLB 74 60 75 59 / 60 40 10 10 VRB 78 61 76 60 / 60 50 20 10 LEE 72 55 77 54 / 40 20 10 0 SFB 72 56 76 56 / 50 10 10 0 ORL 74 58 77 57 / 50 20 10 0 FPR 79 60 77 58 / 60 50 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1261064 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 105 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Moderate to high potential for areas of fog early this morning. Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Areas of fog may reduce visibilities to 1 mile or less at times early this morning. - 2) Cool Start to the Week, Hazardous Marine Conditions Likely. - 3) Significant Warming Trend Kicks in by Thursday, Scattered Storms Possible in the Afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of fog may reduce visibilities to 1 mile or less at times early this morning. A moderate to high probability for areas of fog exists for most of the forecast area through early this morning. This is primarily driven by shallow, weakening northerly flow interacting with a boundary layer that is nearly saturated from recent rainfall. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool Start to the Week, Hazardous Marine Conditions Likely. 1040+ mb surface high starts moving into the Northeast Sunday night, slipping into New England by late Monday. This creates a solid CAD wedge setup, bringing in a brief cooling trend for the area Monday and Tuesday. Wedge appears to be strongest Monday, with high temperatures only getting into the low-to-mid 50s, and lows that night dipping down into the mid 30s to lower 40s. By Tuesday, upper level energy and forcing in the Northeast tries to kick the surface high offshore, which gradually breaks down the wedge. This will allow a ridge in the Southeast at 850 mb to poke up a bit more as it also moves offshore, creating more of an onshore wind component closer to the coast. Temperature gradient looks to set up Tuesday afternoon, where coastal locales will try to warm up with this onshore flow, while inland areas are still under the influence of the wedge. Could see a spread from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Keep an eye on this one, though. Forecast guidance loves to break down the wedge faster than advertised, so temps at the coast may actually be on the cooler when this is all said and done. In the midst of all this, northeasterly winds quickly pick up over the coastal waters, creating Small Craft Advisory concerns. See the extended Marine discussion below for more detail. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Significant Warming Trend Kicks in by Thursday, Scattered Storms Possible in the Afternoon. Ridge at 850 mb continues to push further offshore, but the western extent of it has no problem reaching well into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, another ridge over the Gulf expands and amplifies by the time it moves over Florida and the Caribbean by midweek. With vertical continuity in place, this allows some considerable warming to settle in across the area Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures won`t have a problem reaching near 80 degrees inland, while the beaches hit comfortable temps in the lower 70s. Looks like all records are safe here, but these high temperatures still register some 12-15 degrees above normal, and mimic more mid-late April than early March. Thermal profiles start looking a bit familiar, as this warmth triggers instability in the lower levels. Cannot rule out some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon each day. Another old friend in the seabreeze will show up, given the stout differential heating between air and water (current water temperatures hanging near 50 degrees). Meteorological spring indeed. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A nearly saturated low-level airmass will provide favorable conditions for areas of fog late tonight into Saturday morning, with potential for periods of LIFR. Ceilings and visibility will slowly improve after sunrise, with ceilings lifting to MVFR by 16-18Z. Extended Forecast...Brief flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. VFR returns Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...A quasi-stationary frontal boundary was lingering about 100 miles off the coast early this morning, resulting in sustained 10-15 kt northerly winds across the waters. This front will slowly drift further east through today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken and winds to diminish to 10 kt or less during the afternoon. Very weak high pressure will build in from the west Saturday night, maintaining a northerly direction, with speeds less than 10 kt. Sunday through Wednesday...Rather tame start, with winds backing to the southwest at 5-10 kts and seas 1-3 ft. This changes rapidly Sunday night, as a cold air damming wedge starts building in from the northeast. Very stiff northeasterly flow starts coming in across the NC coastal waters late Sunday night, reaching the SC coastal waters before sunrise Monday morning. Winds and seas won`t have a problem reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria at this point, sticking around through Tuesday night. Winds look to gust up to 30 kts, and may even hit gale force at times. It doesn`t look quite consistent enough for a Gale Watch or Warning, but we`ll see how the next couple of forecast cycles shape up. Seas get up towards 4-5 ft at the coast over the SC waters from Little River Inlet to South Santee River, possibly reaching towards 6 ft up towards Surf City, NC. As you head out towards 20 nm offshore, seas are a bit more uniform at 6-7 ft. Tuesday night, the wedge starts to break down, breaking the northeasterly winds and veering them to the southeast. Winds decrease considerably down to 5-10 kts Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Seas are a bit more stubborn to come down, hanging near 3- 5 ft by late Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261063 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1153 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Overnight/early morning fog at times through next week. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible at times into next week, mainly across the Rio Grande Plains. - Increasing rain chances middle of next week? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Morning fog will give way to clear skies by early afternoon. Late night and early morning fog will be possible through early next week, but visibilities may remain above 2SM across the land areas. By mid week, winds may be a tad to strong for fog to develop over the land, but could still develop across the bays and coastal waters. Otherwise, unseasonably warm conditions will continue into next week with temperatures remaining around 10-15 degrees above normal. Rain chances will remain low to nil through the weekend due to a mid to upper level high pressure system. The high pressure is expected to shift east on Monday through Tuesday. A deepening upper low moving southeastward from the Pacific NW will bring a southwest flow aloft with embedded short waves tracking across the region, which could bring a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain by the middle of next week when moisture begins to deepen (PWATs increase to 1.2-1.5 inches) and combine with the upper short waves. If we do get rain the latter half of next week, it could bring some relief from the heat, but likely will not make any significant improvement to the reservoirs. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Difficult aviation forecast this period with ongoing fog/stratus advecting across the area. A solid band of LIFR CIGS is pushing westward, currently just past ALI and VCT. Expect this to reach LRD in a few hours, but could mix a bit higher and be more very low IFR. Have kept it LIFR in the TAF though as it is solid 300ft at this point. VIS also difficult with some improvement being noted for sites that saw an early drop to IFR conditions. Winds being a bit elevated are probably the most likely culprit for this improvement, but not sure that it`ll hold through the night, so will keep IFR to tempo LIFR noted at eastern sites. VFR conditions return to all sites by mid to late morning. Have indicated an early drop fro CRP again late in the period, but confidence on this is low as it is dependent on a lot of factors for advecting sea fog (wind direction, water temperature and dewpoint), all of which have the potential to come together, but again, not a certainty. && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Patchy to areas of fog will continue across the bays and nearshore waters through Saturday morning with visibilities generally 1 mile or less for most of the area. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until Noon Saturday. Areas of fog remain possible at times through the period. A light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore breeze will continue through Saturday morning, then strengthen to a moderate (BF 4) breeze through Saturday afternoon and continue into early next week. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a fresh (BF 5) breeze by mid week. Rain chances will be low (5-20%) through Tuesday, increasing to a 20-30% by mid week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Onshore flow will increase the humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible at times through the weekend into next week, mainly across the Rio Grande Plains where minimum RH values will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds are expected to remain below thresholds through early next week. However, winds may strengthen to critical levels by the middle of next week, but so do the minimum relative humidity values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 64 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 82 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 90 65 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 87 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 64 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 90 63 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 84 62 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 75 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ231>234- 241>247-342>347-442-443-447. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255. && $$ |
| #1261062 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1253 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon and evening across interior portions of the state. Main threat with any of these storms will be locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe sized hail. - A high chance for fog and low clouds this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Scattered showers early this morning along with an isolated rumble of thunder or two. This activity is developing ahead of an approaching cold front. This welcome rain has brought as much as 1.5 inches in a few locations based on observations and radar estimates, while others locations have seen little to no rainfall. So far, most of southwest Florida has seen little to no rainfall but there is an area of rainfall currently on radar moving onshore. Overall, intensity and coverage of rainfall is forecast to diminish throughout the mornings hours. There is also a high chance of fog development this morning with increase low-level moisture along the surface front. The upper level pattern features an upper level trough that is currently located across the northeastern Gulf. At the surface, a cold front is drifting southward and has moved into the Florida Penesula. Moisture remains elevated along and to the south of the frontal boundary with PW values near the 95th-99th percentile of climatology for late February. Due to this, continued with higher PoPs early this morning but expect rain chances will diminish through the early morning hours. A really challenging forecast for what PoPs look like this afternoon and evening. The latest CAMs have mostly come in with isolated coverage of showers and storms at best. It appears drier air from the front is moving into the region quicker than anticipated. For the forecast, lowered PoPs overall but didn`t go as low as the CAMs show. PoPs this afternoon are still in the 20-50% range with best chances for showers/storms across southeastern portions of the forecast area. With the drier air aloft, models soundings are indicating better instability. Due to this, any storms that do form have a low chance of becoming strong to severe. The SPC has outlined southeastern portions of the area in a marginal risk. The main threat would be an isolated severe wind gust and marginally severe sized hail. Drier air moves into the area from northwest to southeast later this afternoon and evening. Chances for showers/storms should eventually come to an end tonight. The cold air advection behind the departing front is non-existant and highs on Sunday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. The warming trend will continue into next week with highs across interior portions of the area approaching 90 by mid week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A challenging aviation forecast. All of the TAF sites are currently VFR except for PGD where conditions are IFR. Current radar imagery indicates a cluster of showers and storms that should move onshore that will impact KSRQ and KPGD over the next hour or so. Tried to time this as best as possible in the TAFs. With the widespread ample low level moisture, expect IFR conditions will return later this morning around 09z or so for most locations. Most of the latest models keep most of the redevelopment of showers/storms this afternoon inland and do not have precipitation mentioned in the TAFs outside of the ongoing activity. Fog and ceilings should lift by 15z or so at most terminals giving way to VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Ongoing showers and storms this morning across the coastal waters as a cold front moves into the region. A few of these storms could produce gusty winds up to 30 kts this morning. We also have a moderate chance for fog development this morning. Drier conditions will start to move in later today as the front passes. Winds will shift to the north later today but will remain around 10 kts or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Scattered to numerous showers are currently ongoing across the forecast area this morning with a few rumbles of thunder being reported. Scattered showers and storms are forecast today with best chances across the interior portions of the state. Humidity values remain elevated over the weekend and into next week and no fire weather concerns are forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 60 80 59 / 50 10 10 0 FMY 82 63 82 61 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 79 59 79 57 / 60 20 10 0 SRQ 77 60 79 59 / 60 10 10 0 BKV 78 50 81 50 / 40 10 10 0 SPG 77 62 79 62 / 50 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1261060 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1234 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue today. - A high chance for fog and low clouds tomorrow morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 A broken line of showers with embedded storms associated with a cold front draped across the panhandle continues to push across WCFL this evening. Radar estimates and obs indicate parts of the Nature Coast and areas toward coastal WCFL have received upwards of an inch in some locations, while much of the remainder of areas across the Nature Coast and WCFL have received measurable rainfall. SWFL is likely to see less in the way of rainfall through tonight as the band of convection is on a weakening trend, and guidance is rather tempered rain chances southward. Made a few adjustments to the near-term grids to account for coverage and location of rain shield, otherwise no changes needed to the existing forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Broad troughing continues aloft across the region this afternoon with surface high pressure to our west and a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. We are already starting to see some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Gulf ahead of the boundary entering our coastal waters and these will continue to spread over the area through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Tonight, the front will slow down as the flow aloft becomes more parallel to it and this will allow showers and isolated thunderstorms to linger through the night while also slowly shifting southward. Then as we head into the daytime hours, there will still be some shower activity along the front, but it does look like most of the activity will be more toward the east coast as the upper trough swings eastward along with the higher-moisture air mass. As far as rainfall amounts go, the higher-end amounts are between 1-1.5 inches for the most part, with a few pockets of 2 inches. The boundary will finally get pushed south of the area Saturday night into Sunday with high pressure moving over the southeast. The rest of the week will be fairly quiet, with warm conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A challenging aviation forecast. All of the TAF sites are currently VFR except for PGD where conditions are IFR. Current radar imagery indicates a cluster of showers and storms that should move onshore that will impact KSRQ and KPGD over the next hour or so. Tried to time this as best as possible in the TAFs. With the widespread ample low level moisture, expect IFR conditions will return later this morning around 09z or so for most locations. Most of the latest models keep most of the redevelopment of showers/storms this afternoon inland and do not have precipitation mentioned in the TAFs outside of the ongoing activity. Fog and ceilings should lift by 15z or so at most terminals giving way to VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 A frontal boundary is approaching the region, with additional showers and thunderstorms spreading over the waters through the rest of today and into tonight. Sea fog that developed earlier has lifted, but additional dense fog is likely to form later today or tonight. No headlines are expected except for any Dense Fog Advisories. Winds will turn northeast and then east late this weekend into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 106 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 A cold front will bring increasing rain chances today into Saturday, with a few thunderstorms expected as well. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no fire weather concerns. Some patchy fog is possible tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 60 80 59 / 50 10 10 0 FMY 82 63 82 61 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 79 59 79 57 / 60 20 10 0 SRQ 77 60 79 59 / 60 10 10 0 BKV 78 50 81 50 / 40 10 10 0 SPG 77 62 79 62 / 50 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1261059 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1244 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning, mainly across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida. - A frontal boundary approaches the region today, leading to an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon. A strong to marginally severe storm is possible around Lake Okeechobee with the primary threat being strong wind. - Smoke from wildfire activity may still create dangerous driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail, and SR-29 today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 South Florida sits just to the south of a decaying frontal boundary early this morning. With light southerly moisture advection and light surface winds, fog development is likely once again early this morning especially across Southwest Florida and local Gulf waters. Residual smoke from the National & Regal fires in southwestern Florida may act to create exceptionally dense fog across these areas, resulting in visibilities nearing zero at times and dangerous driving conditions. Motorists are advised to exercise extra caution if traveling along inland routes through 9am this morning, especially along Alligator Alley and SR-29 in Collier/Hendry counties. The decaying frontal boundary will continue to progress very slowly southward through the day today while likely remaining just to the north of the forecast area as a shortwave transverses the SE CONUS. This should keep South Florida in the envelope of deeper tropical moisture. The continued increase of low-level moisture and passage of the shortwave could help facilitate the development of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While it will be possible for most of South Florida to see a few showers today, the focus of convection will develop near the Lake Okeechobee region during the late afternoon/early evening with showers and storms eventually pushing off the Palm Beach coast. Potential hazards include gusty winds, small hail, and a non-zero chance of a quick spin-up tornado in this type of setup. Rain chances will decrease slightly on Sunday as the frontal boundary slowly sags and eventually stalls across South Florida. Surface flow will eventually veer northeasterly through the day as the boundary fizzles and pressure gradient begins to tighten. Enough moisture will remain in place to support a few coastal showers during the morning hours, and scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s with lows in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 As the frontal boundary becomes frontolytic in the vicinity of our region on Monday, the moisture associated with it will remain across the region. With the departure of the mid-level shortwave well to the east of the region and the departure of the subtropical jet- stream well to the north of the region, a quiet period on the synoptic scale is ushered into the region as a mid-level ridge of high pressure develops over the Gulf and gradually slides eastwards towards South Florida on Tuesday. Breezy conditions are forecast to develop by the Tuesday-Wednesday time period as the surface pressure gradient tightens, mainly along the east coast where winds could gust 20-25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values in the 1.3 to 1.6 range will support the potential of isolated to scattered showers each day throughout the upcoming work- week perhaps maximized along the immediate east coastline and over local waters. Prevailing conditions by far will remain mostly sunny throughout the week as any shower activity should be brief. Forecast high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the East coast to mid to upper 80s along the Gulf coast, Monday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Likely challenging period ahead as fog development appears probable across most South Florida sites. Any fog should dissipate by around 15Z. Frontal boundary approaches from the north through the day which should keep primarily SW flow until around 18-19Z when the sea breeze veers flow to a more SE direction across the eastern sites. Chance for a few thunderstorms maximized in Palm Beach and Broward sites this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Outside of locally elevated seas and winds in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, conditions will remain benign across all local waters through the weekend. Locally dense fog may occur this morning across the nearshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters, which will result in lower visibilities than normal. The development of a pressure gradient next week will act to establish a breezy to at times gusty easterly wind flow across the region during the beginning of next week. This will usher in a duration of likely Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Light southerly winds across the region today will result in a low risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches. With winds forecast to enhance out of an easterly onshore direction early next week, an elevated risk of rip currents is forecast to return along the east coast of South Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 67 81 68 / 30 30 40 30 West Kendall 86 62 83 63 / 20 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 85 66 82 67 / 30 30 40 30 Homestead 84 65 82 67 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 67 79 68 / 40 40 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 83 67 79 68 / 40 40 40 30 Pembroke Pines 86 66 83 67 / 40 30 40 30 West Palm Beach 83 65 78 66 / 50 50 30 20 Boca Raton 83 65 79 67 / 50 50 30 30 Naples 79 64 81 63 / 20 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261058 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1241 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Charleston Harbor through 8 AM. The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Areas of low stratus and fog likely tonight. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of low stratus and fog likely tonight. As of midnight a cold front is located to the south of the forecast area. GOES satellite imagery shows a large area of low stratus working southwards across the the forecast area, with ceilings less than 1k ft across most of the region. Additionally fog has developed in some spots as dew points remain elevated. Generally visibilities will be between 1 and 3 miles through the overnight period, however brief drops to less than 1 mile will be possible. Both the 00Z NBM and HREF are very unsupportive of the fog becoming dense, with probabilities only around 20% of visibilities less than 1 mile. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory is unlikely tonight. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Solid IFR/LIFR conditions will initialize the 06Z TAFs at KCHS and KJZI, with MVFR cigs at KSAV. IFR cigs should reach KSAV in the next couple of hours, with IFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through most of the overnight. Additionally fog could impact the terminals at times, with vsbys generally 1-3SM. Timing of improving conditions is a little tricky, however the general thinking is vsbys improving around daybreak and cigs improving to MVFR by late morning and VFR by the afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: The next chance of flight restrictions is late Sunday into Monday due to a passing cold front. && .MARINE... Areas of fog have been observed in the nearshore Charleston County waters as well as in the Charleston Harbor. Observations from webcams as well as the Charleston Harbor Pilot Office confirm that dense fog is present and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Charleston harbor, valid until 8 AM. Visibilities in the harbor will drop to 1/4 NM at times tonight. Elsewhere, visibilities of 1-3 NM will be common as low stratus lingers and fog develops. A dry cold front is expected to push through the region early next week, bringing elevated seas and gusts. Small Craft Advisories are likely across all waters, including the Charleston Harbor, from Monday into Monday night. NBM probabilities of gusts >34 kts are around 35% across the Charleston nearshore waters, so a Gale Watch/Warning is possible. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ330. && $$ |
| #1261057 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1236 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased confidence in patchy fog across the region tonight, especially in low-lying areas. Less snowfall expected Sunday with a drier cold front. Looking warmer and wetter next week with a chance for precipitation during the mid to late week timeframe. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog tonight and warmer Saturday - Cold front brings a period of accumulating snow on Sunday. A very cold Arctic airmass follows in its wake. - Warmer and unsettled next week with multiple chances for precipitation starting Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Patchy fog tonight and warmer Saturday. High pressure overhead will continue shifting east heading into the start of the weekend. Southerly to southwesterly winds will persist across southern New England with sea breezes remaining possible through the rest of this afternoon. Low level temperatures climb above 0C tonight in the midst of WAA from light southerly to southwesterly flow. Higher dewpoints will be advected in as well, shrinking dew point depressions and increasing the chance for patchy fog across the region, especially amidst all the snow on the ground. Guidance has continued to trend up the chance for patchy fog across southern New England tonight, with the highest chances in low-lying areas. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 20s and upper teens. The warming trend overnight will continue through Saturday as southwesterly flow continues and 925 mb temperatures remain around 2- 4C. 850 mb temperatures will remain above 0C through the afternoon as well. A front passing through Saturday will shift winds more NW heading into Saturday night. Latest guidance does not indicate much in the way of a spot shower or two for this frontal passage as moisture is lacking and forcing is weak (notably, lapse rates are quite low). Lows for Saturday night will be similar to tonight`s, falling mostly in the 20s across the region ahead of a more significant cold front Sunday. Key Message 2...Cold front brings a period of accumulating snow on Sunday. A very cold Arctic airmass follows in its wake. A strong cold front moves through on Sunday and brings a period of snow from W-E late Sunday afternoon into the evening. Trend in guidance has been to lower overall moisture and QPF amounts. Notably, models have shown a sharp decrease in 700-800mb RH and PWAT values along and ahead of the front. These changes result in a largely unsaturated DGZ with poor snowflake growth and lower overall totals Sunday afternoon. The NBM has followed suit with probs for 1" or greater dropping from 40-50% areawide to around 30-45%. Thus, have gone ahead and lowered forecast snowfall totals with 1-3 inches possible mainly along and north of the Mass Pike and lesser amounts of up to an inch elsewhere. Still think a reasonable worst-case scenario is a 2-4 inch event if QPF trends higher. Higher-end snow totals should remain confined to higher terrain as temperatures become more marginal closer to the coast. Bigger story with the frontal passage will be a sharp drop in temperatures Sunday night. Highs start in the 30s early in the day, then drop into the upper 20s and upper teens by 00z Monday. Core of the Arctic airmass moves through Sunday night with 850mb temps falling into the mid teens below zero Celsius. No surprise that it will be a cold night with lows falling into the single digits and lower teens for most of the region. Well mixed boundary layer will keep most spots from realizing the coldest possible temps. Exception will be in interior valleys where the boundary layer is able to decouple and increase radiational cooling. In these spots, lows may even fall to near or just below zero! Temps will be slow to rebound Monday even under mostly clear skies. Highs range from the lower 20s at elevations in the interior to the upper 20s to near 30 across the coastal plain. Low temperatures Monday night bottom out in the single digits once again. Winds will be elevated, but do not look as strong as previous cold air advection events as the LLJ will likely only be 20-25 kts. Still, could see impactful wind chills Monday morning. Most locations will see wind chill values around or just below zero, with the lowest values across elevated portions of the interior. Key Message 3... Warmer and unsettled next week with multiple chances for precipitation starting Tuesday into Wednesday. Upper air pattern over the CONUS becomes more zonal through the middle of next week with a strengthening Pacific Jet. Embedded disturbances bring multiple chances for precipitation mid week. Pattern becomes more amplified late next week with a strengthening southeast ridge. At the surface, these changes result in temperatures warming back to seasonal averages Tuesday through the rest of next week. Precip type will be a bit less straightforward than with the last few events as highs warm into the upper 30s and low 40s. Chances of precipitation arrive with several weak waves of shortwave energy moving in from the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley during the middle to end of next week. Given the cold air in place ahead of the first wave on Wednesday, any WAA will lead to a messy mixed precipitation setup with anything from snow to sleet to freezing rain. The active pattern may continue for much of the week as a warm front stalls near Southern New England on its northward journey. NBM has a 30-50% chance of an inch of QPF for this timeframe so we could see hydrologic impacts but confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High Confidence. VFR. Light SW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Increasing mid-level cloudiness into the afternoon. Saturday Night...Moderate Confidence. VFR with areas of MVFR and some IFR possible with fog development. Light winds shift more NW-ly. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. Generally MVFR cigs as the chance for some light snow showers increases throughout Sunday morning. Not expecting much accumulation with this system. Possibly up to 1-1.5 inches, but confidence is low given the wide spread in model guidance at this time. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. SW-ly winds 5-10 knots today veer NW-ly late tonight. Possible BR develops tonight, but confidence is low. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR outside of a chance for MVFR visbys in BR early this morning. Moderate confidence in lower ceilings at that same time. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday Night...High confidence. Winds generally below 15 knots, with the exception of the occasional gust up to 20 knots over the far northeast waters this afternoon. S to SE winds shift more N Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds begin to increase to near 25 knots Sunday night into Monday morning, but seas remain below 5 feet. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain likely. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261056 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 28.Feb.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1116 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 - Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Patchy fog is forecast to develop both tonight and Saturday night. While dense fog is not currently anticipated, motorists should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility, if traveling during the late night and early morning hours through Sunday morning. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 The weak cold front that brought this morning`s showers and storms is now moving offshore into the Gulf. Drier and slightly cooler air is entering the area now. Lows will generally be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday (so around the 50s), but despite the cooling, this is still slightly above normal for this time of year. The potential for fog is a little murky tomorrow morning. While there could be some patchy fog which could be dense in a few spots, with the drier air already moving through, the current thinking is the window of opportunity is going to be limited and along/south of the I-10/I-12 corridor. That being said this is still a lower than usual confidence in the forecast especially with guidance being all over the place for visibility. Highs tomorrow and Sunday will be warm for this time of year, with a some spots possibly hitting 80 and the rest of the area not too far behind in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Weak ridging will hold over the area through around mid week. Above average temperatures will continue through the rest of next week with much of the area near or above 80 degrees especially by mid week. Gulf moisture will also be advecting into the area bringing more humid conditions. A few shortwaves pass nearby around mid week bringing a low to medium chance of some showers and thunderstorms. As of right now the potential for heavy rainfall will be much further north of us with the better environment setup well into the midwest. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Mostly VFR conditions for terminals with a few at IFR or lower due to low stratus. The low cloud decks are generally transient and should improve in a few hours but with fog being a concern through the early morning hours some terminals may be stuck MVFR/IFR for either vis or ceilings. Conditions should then improve to VFR again by the mid morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Benign conditions will settle over the coastal waters for the weekend. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail through Monday before shifting to a stronger offshore flow starting Tuesday. Low chances of rain return for the offshore waters around mid week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
