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| #1262759 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 16.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freeze expected tonight into Tuesday morning in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley. A Freeze Warning is in effect for these locations. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing today as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of Southeast TX thru 7PM Monday. - Hazardous marine conditions continue in the wake of the front through Monday: moderate to strong northerly winds (gusting to 30-35 kt), elevated seas (8-12 ft), and negative tides in Galveston Bay through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight and a Low Water Advisory remains in effect through this evening. - Warming trend for the rest of the week with high temperatures likely approaching the 90s over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Welcome back, winter! It is still astronomical winter for a few more days, and I`m glad we have at least one more good cooldown before we move into the dreaded part of the calender year. We`ll actually get a free trial of summer this weekend, but I`m getting ahead of myself...we`ll save that fun for later. We started off this morning with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s with northerly winds still advecting in colder air. This afternoon we`ll only see high temperatures in the 50s...the last time this happened was February 1st (43 days ago). If I had to wager a guess, this is likely the last occurrence until the fall...so soak it in! Gusty northerly winds continue as a 35-45 kt LLJ remains overhead. Although it is gradually weakening, we`re still able to see sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts exceeding 40 mph at times especially near the coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6pm this evening. Combine that with very dry air and increasingly drying fuels, and we have elevated to critical fire weather conditions across most of Southeast TX. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7pm this evening...see the Fire Weather discussion below for more details on that. Upper level cloud cover will gradually increase later today as an embedded shortwave passes through. This cloud cover clears out going into the overnight hours, and that`ll pair with surface high pressure sliding overhead. Who here knows the magic equation for max radiational cooling? Ehh I suppose that method only works in a classroom...well the answer is light winds + clear skies + dry air! That`ll all be in place tonight into Tuesday morning leading to widespread lows in the 30s with some upper 20s up north (and 40s right along the coast). This means that a light freeze is expected for portions of the Piney Woods and the Brazos Valley. Since we`ve had springlike temperatures for quite a while, some greenup has occurred...and I`m sure many of you have already begun planting crops/flowers/plants as well. As a result, a Freeze Warning has been issued for these locations from 1AM-9AM Tuesday morning. Be sure to take the proper precautions to protect vulnerable plants from these freezing conditions. A rather robust mid/upper level high begins to build into the southwestern CONUS around midweek. We`ll go on a warming trend this week as well with temperatures back into the 70s by midweek and approaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week. Perfect time to mention that the Spring Equinox is on the morning of Friday, March 20th. The mid/upper level high looks to expand a tad bit eastward going into the weekend. Combine that with 850mb temperatures approaching the 99th to MAX percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), westerly to southwesterly flow aloft, southwesterly flow at the surface, and relatively dry air (PW values around or less than 1"), and we have the recipe for well above normal temperatures. There is potential that we could see our first 90F temperatures of the year on Saturday, but it`s still a little too early to lock it in. At the very least, we`ll be near or in record-breaking territory. Here`s a fun fact about the 90F mark though: the average first 90F day for the City of Houston is May 6th, but we did see a 90F day in mid March last year! BONUS NUGGET UPDATE// --------------------- Lastly, if you`ve been keeping up with my discussions the past few days, you`ll remember that I talked about the VERY low probability for some frozen precipitation (flurries/graupel) in far northeastern areas (eastern Piney Woods) late Sunday night into early Monday morning. I gave it a <5% probability of occuring within that region and said that it was much more plausible to our northeast. Well wouldn`t ya know it that the mPING report map was lit up with graupel reports early this morning all across Louisiana! I know it`s not Texas...but there were plenty of reports to our northeast, so I`m gonna count that as a win! I will definitely enjoy a victory cookie today! :) Also did you ever imagine that you`d see discussions about graupel and temperatures in the 90s all within the same week?! I sure didn`t! Mother Nature certainly keeps us on our toes... Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The primary concern will be strong gusty northerly winds. Gusts this morning over 30 knots have been common, with areas near the coast gusting over 40 knots. KGLS has gusted as high as 50 knots. These winds are expected to gradually decrease today. However, gusts over 30 knots could occur well into the afternoon. Winds will weaken significantly this evening, becoming light and variable overnight for most inland locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Moderate to strong northerly winds continue this afternoon, but are continuing to gradually decrease. Winds and seas aren`t expected to drop below the advisory threshold till late tonight, so a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. PETSS guidance reflects low water conditions are ongoing currently in Galveston Bay with water levels around 1.0 to 1.5 feet below MLLW persisting in the northern part of the bay through this afternoon, so a Low Water Advisory remains in effect. Winds and seas decrease overnight into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return late Tuesday and continue into the end of the work week. Batiste && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Gusty northerly winds (gusts in the 30-40 mph range) and very dry air (minimum RH values as low as 15%) has lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. The Texas A&M Forest Service has areas the majority of Southeast TX outlined in an extreme fire danger rating (level 5 out of 5) today. This period of very dry air and gusty winds will dry out fuels, especially now that the spring greenup has already begun. Fuel moisture is be on a decreasing trend with 10 hr and 1 hr fuel moisture heading towards the lower percentiles today. As a result, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of Southeast TX through 7PM this evening. Be sure to practice fire safety and avoid any activities that could spark a fire as they could spread rapidly in these conditions. Drier air and fuels stick around going into Tuesday, but winds will be lighter and southeasterly. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as onshore winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 31 64 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 36 63 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 46 60 54 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-300. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335. Low Water Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ |
| #1262676 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northerly winds expected tonight into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Southeast TX. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. - Hazardous marine conditions occuring tonight through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. - Light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley Monday night, followed by a warming trend through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The cold front is currently about to exit the offshore Gulf waters and strong northerly winds are starting to ramp up over Southeast TX. We are observing winds at 20-25 with gusts of 30-40 mph inland. These speeds are expected to prevail into the morning hours as a 50-60 knot low level jet moves overhead behind the frontal passage tonight. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect through 6 PM Monday. Make sure loose and light outdoor objects have been secured. Strong winds could also lead to power outages at times. Cold, dry air will also move in quickly behind the front tonight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunrise. Taking into account the strong northerly winds, temperatures will feel closer to the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thus, make sure to bundle up during the early morning hours. Colder conditions prevail Monday, with sunny skies and highs in the 50s areawide. Very nice :P. The one thing we will have to monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions given how dry and windy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds begin to relax by late afternoon to evening. CAA will continue on Monday night and will give us the coldest temperatures for this week. The lows will be in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with highs will be back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The primary concern will be strong gusty northerly winds. Gusts this morning over 30 knots have been common, with areas near the coast gusting over 40 knots. KGLS has gusted as high as 50 knots. These winds are expected to gradually decrease today. However, gusts over 30 knots could occur well into the afternoon. Winds will weaken significantly this evening, becoming light and variable overnight for most inland locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 As of midnight tonight, the cold front was exiting the offshore Gulf waters. Strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-50 knots are expected in the wake of the front. Seas will build to 8-15 feet. A Gale Warning is now in effect through Monday afternoon. Low water levels can be expected in the bays Monday morning. Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south- southwesterly Friday into the upcoming weekend. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday`s front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20-25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 33 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 56 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 58 47 61 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300- 313-335>338. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Low Water Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335. && $$ |
| #1262606 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 16.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northerly winds expected tonight into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Southeast TX. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. - Hazardous marine conditions occuring tonight through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. - Light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley Monday night, followed by a warming trend through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The cold front is currently about to exit the offshore Gulf waters and strong northerly winds are starting to ramp up over Southeast TX. We are observing winds at 20-25 with gusts of 30-40 mph inland. These speeds are expected to prevail into the morning hours as a 50-60 knot low level jet moves overhead behind the frontal passage tonight. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect through 6 PM Monday. Make sure loose and light outdoor objects have been secured. Strong winds could also lead to power outages at times. Cold, dry air will also move in quickly behind the front tonight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunrise. Taking into account the strong northerly winds, temperatures will feel closer to the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thus, make sure to bundle up during the early morning hours. Colder conditions prevail Monday, with sunny skies and highs in the 50s areawide. Very nice :P. The one thing we will have to monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions given how dry and windy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds begin to relax by late afternoon to evening. CAA will continue on Monday night and will give us the coldest temperatures for this week. The lows will be in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with highs will be back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms is quickly moving through the area this evening along a cold front. Strong northerly winds should develop in the wake of the front with gusts approaching 40-50 knots. Even if the strongest gusts aren`t mixing down, vertical wind shear will be present to a degree with northerly winds of 40-45 knots around 2,000 ft. Winds should ease down slightly overnight, generally 18-23 knots prevailing with gusts up to around 30-35. Winds at KGLS will take more time to taper down. Overall strong northerly winds and VFR conditions should prevail into Monday and through the remainder of the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 As of midnight tonight, the cold front was exiting the offshore Gulf waters. Strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-50 knots are expected in the wake of the front. Seas will build to 8-15 feet. A Gale Warning is now in effect through Monday afternoon. Low water levels can be expected in the bays Monday morning. Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south- southwesterly Friday into the upcoming weekend. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday`s front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20-25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 54 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 56 38 63 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 49 58 47 61 / 40 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ |
