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The next few weeks are likely to remain quiet in the Atlantic basin.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Houston, TX (Houston/Galveston, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1233408 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Mid-level ridge will continue to be the most dominant feature for the rest of today into Saturday. Although the ridge will limit our rain activity for much of Southeast TX, we could still see some isolated showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly along the coastal areas and for locations near the Galveston Bay region as we continue to heat up. Persistent onshore flow will continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and lead to Heat indices in the lower 100s this afternoon. Although these values are not yet within the Heat Advisory criteria, these temperatures can still lead to heat-related illnesses or injuries. Thus, continue to practice heat safety. If outdoors, stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks, limit the time spent outdoors, limit sun exposure, and wear appropriate clothing. Never leave children and pets unattended in vehicles. For tonight, we will start off with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As the night progresses, skies will become partly cloudy to cloudy. We may see some streamer showers during the overnight to early morning hours, mainly over the Gulf waters and the coastal locations, but accumulations will be minimal. Unfortunately, we wont have much relief from the warm and humid feels tonight, as low temperatures only dip into the mid to upper 70s for much of the area while dewpoints range a couple of degrees lower than the lows. Conditions heat up a little more on Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for areas north of I-10, the lower to mid 90s for areas along and south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Heat indices are expected to range between 102- 106 deg F and can once again pose a heath risk for vulnerable populations as well as for those planning to spend long periods of time outdoors. The one good thing about Saturday is that we can anticipate somewhat breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens and a 25-30KT low level jet develops overhead. This will help a bit, however, make sure you are taking the necessary precautions during your time outdoors. Cotto && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A robust subtropical ridge will have a strong influence over the weather for the start of long-term period. What weather conditions will this create, might you ask? If you guessed heat, well...you guessed correctly. `Tis the season of walking outside into a bowl of soup and sweating within a mere five seconds...and this subtropical ridge will bring hotter than normal temperatures for Sunday (Advisories are looking more likely for this day). Inland temperatures for both Sunday and Monday will be in the 90s to near 100F for portions of the Metro. Along the coast, highs will be in the upper 80s. The ridge will begin breaking down on Monday, which may bring daytime temperatures down a degree or two compared to Sunday`s highs. As the ridge breaks down, precipitation chances will increase, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Monday afternoon appears to be more favorable for development with peak heating. Highest PoPs lie east of the I-45 corridor. The ridge will continue breaking down through the week with a series of vort maxes (pockets of more enhanced upward movement of air) and shortwaves pass through Southeast Texas. This will create an unsettled weather pattern through the end of the long-term. The positive side? Locations that receive rain should experience less impacts from heat. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies should help keep temperatures at bay as well. As is the case with summertime storms in Southeast Texas, heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through Thursday. This is later in the period, so confidence on this occurrence is low, but as mentioned by the previous forecaster, the signal is there. Adams && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A few spotty streamer showers have popped up across the coast west of Galveston Bay. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail region- wide through the day today, with winds out of the S to SSE around the 10 kt range. Winds become light and variable tonight and overnight before picking back up out of the S around 10-12 kts by mid to late Saturday morning. Another VFR day is on tap for Saturday with mostly clear skies. Some Saharan dust moving in late tonight may cause conditions to be a bit hazy Saturday, but the dust should be high enough off the ground that visibility will not be affected. McNeel && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and generally low seas are expected through the middle of next week. Seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore Gulf waters at times. Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern becomes more unsettled next week, with an increasing probability of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, particularly Tuesday through the end of next week. Adams/Self && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 78 / 20 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233400 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The theme of this weekend will be "What if peak of summer, but in early June?". Look for temperatures near daily records, and even if those records stay safe, it`ll be wise to keep heat safety at the front of mind as the nice weather and the weekend will surely pull many of us outside to enjoy the feel of grass. Some key points on the forecast: - With highs rising into the upper 90s for all but the immediate Gulf coast, record highs will be at risk both Saturday and Sunday. The most at risk will be Hobby Airport, whose records are 98 and 97, respectively. - The forecast heat index is the "trailing" heat intensity tool, and even it is forecast to be around/above 105 for inland counties. HeatRisk largely rises into the major impact range (level 3 of 4) on the persistent high-end temperatures, and high risk level wet bulb globe temps (level 4 of 5) are also forecast. - A stormier pattern returns early next week with a cold front sagging its way south through the state. At the least, we`ll be looking for daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorm development. Stay tuned in the coming days for more information on potential for severe storms or excessive rain in this stretch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The short term is Ridge Time for the Texas Gulf Coast. An 592+ dm 500 mb high will be hanging out over the coast through today, and only retreat a tiny bit back towards the west by late Saturday night, keeping us fully under its reign for the entire period. At lower levels, continued onshore flow around high pressure off to our east means we`ll keep things good and humid as well. Sooo, yup, we`re not gonna really have anything to talk about except heat. As we build into the peak heat of the next week this weekend, we`ll mostly be exploring the nuances of the heat, and what kind of threat it poses to a place where heat is already a familiar, and common, foe this time of year. Temperatures - First off, we`ve got a pretty high floor. Average highs this time of year are roughly around 90 degrees. Today, I`ve got forecast highs beginning to reach into the mid 90s inland. Looking at the NBM probability distribution, there`s not much room for things to come in below that, either as confidence in the high-end heat is about as high. Today is the "uncertain" day, where the probability of a high above 90 is 70-100 percent for all but the immediate Gulf coast. Tomorrow looks even more confidently in the 90s, as my forecast now pushes into the middle to upper 90s and the NBM probability of highs above 90 degrees are 90-100 percent except for right on the Gulf. On the flip side, while we will eventually make some record highs look nervously over their shoulder, today probably isn`t quite that day. NBM probabilities fall to less than 10 percent for virtually the entire area at 95 degrees today. So while confidence is high that we get easily into the 90s today, the upper 90s seem off the table. To reach that same probability ceiling tomorrow, we drift upwards to 98 degrees. This tends to imply that even as the heat turns up, we`re still looking to fall short of daily records, which cluster around the century mark. So, while I`m quite confident Saturday highs will be uncomfortably close to records, I`d also be somewhat surprised to see any records fall. If one does, I`d put my money on Hobby, whose record high for June 7 is only 98 degrees. Things do not get much better at night, as low temps should be up in the middle to upper 70s both nights. Right on the immediate Gulf coast, temps may struggle to fall below 80 at all (sorry, Galveston). Heat Index - our traditional index to describe the combined impact of heat and humidity, expect the hot temps and humid conditions to result in peak heat index in the triple digits area-wide today, though generally in the 100-105 range. Tomorrow, things crank up more inland with the hotter temps, with forecast peak heat index of 104-109. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) - Similar to heat index in that it considers heat and humidity, but also uses wind speeds and solar intensity (due to both cloud cover and sun angle). Both today and tomorrow (especially tomorrow!), WBGT forecasts rise into the high risk range for the large majority of Southeast Texas. High risk is a level 4 of 5 in these threat categories, with only extreme above it. Fortunately, there is no real area of extreme risk emerging tomorrow. HeatRisk - An experimental heat tool, this considers temperature in the context of how unusually high it gets, and the persistence of that heat - both overnight and over multiple days. Today, with temperatures a little closer to average than to records, HeatRisk is a mix of moderate and major impact (levels 2 and 3 of 4). Tomorrow, major impact potential becomes much more widespread across the area. On the upside, like with WBGT, there is no real emergence of an extreme impact potential tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A few spotty streamer showers have popped up across the coast west of Galveston Bay. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail region- wide through the day today, with winds out of the S to SSE around the 10 kt range. Winds become light and variable tonight and overnight before picking back up out of the S around 10-12 kts by mid to late Saturday morning. Another VFR day is on tap for Saturday with mostly clear skies. Some Saharan dust moving in late tonight may cause conditions to be a bit hazy Saturday, but the dust should be high enough off the ground that visibility will not be affected. McNeel && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 78 / 20 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233371 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The theme of this weekend will be "What if peak of summer, but in early June?". Look for temperatures near daily records, and even if those records stay safe, it`ll be wise to keep heat safety at the front of mind as the nice weather and the weekend will surely pull many of us outside to enjoy the feel of grass. Some key points on the forecast: - With highs rising into the upper 90s for all but the immediate Gulf coast, record highs will be at risk both Saturday and Sunday. The most at risk will be Hobby Airport, whose records are 98 and 97, respectively. - The forecast heat index is the "trailing" heat intensity tool, and even it is forecast to be around/above 105 for inland counties. HeatRisk largely rises into the major impact range (level 3 of 4) on the persistent high-end temperatures, and high risk level wet bulb globe temps (level 4 of 5) are also forecast. - A stormier pattern returns early next week with a cold front sagging its way south through the state. At the least, we`ll be looking for daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorm development. Stay tuned in the coming days for more information on potential for severe storms or excessive rain in this stretch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The short term is Ridge Time for the Texas Gulf Coast. An 592+ dm 500 mb high will be hanging out over the coast through today, and only retreat a tiny bit back towards the west by late Saturday night, keeping us fully under its reign for the entire period. At lower levels, continued onshore flow around high pressure off to our east means we`ll keep things good and humid as well. Sooo, yup, we`re not gonna really have anything to talk about except heat. As we build into the peak heat of the next week this weekend, we`ll mostly be exploring the nuances of the heat, and what kind of threat it poses to a place where heat is already a familiar, and common, foe this time of year. Temperatures - First off, we`ve got a pretty high floor. Average highs this time of year are roughly around 90 degrees. Today, I`ve got forecast highs beginning to reach into the mid 90s inland. Looking at the NBM probability distribution, there`s not much room for things to come in below that, either as confidence in the high-end heat is about as high. Today is the "uncertain" day, where the probability of a high above 90 is 70-100 percent for all but the immediate Gulf coast. Tomorrow looks even more confidently in the 90s, as my forecast now pushes into the middle to upper 90s and the NBM probability of highs above 90 degrees are 90-100 percent except for right on the Gulf. On the flip side, while we will eventually make some record highs look nervously over their shoulder, today probably isn`t quite that day. NBM probabilities fall to less than 10 percent for virtually the entire area at 95 degrees today. So while confidence is high that we get easily into the 90s today, the upper 90s seem off the table. To reach that same probability ceiling tomorrow, we drift upwards to 98 degrees. This tends to imply that even as the heat turns up, we`re still looking to fall short of daily records, which cluster around the century mark. So, while I`m quite confident Saturday highs will be uncomfortably close to records, I`d also be somewhat surprised to see any records fall. If one does, I`d put my money on Hobby, whose record high for June 7 is only 98 degrees. Things do not get much better at night, as low temps should be up in the middle to upper 70s both nights. Right on the immediate Gulf coast, temps may struggle to fall below 80 at all (sorry, Galveston). Heat Index - our traditional index to describe the combined impact of heat and humidity, expect the hot temps and humid conditions to result in peak heat index in the triple digits area-wide today, though generally in the 100-105 range. Tomorrow, things crank up more inland with the hotter temps, with forecast peak heat index of 104-109. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) - Similar to heat index in that it considers heat and humidity, but also uses wind speeds and solar intensity (due to both cloud cover and sun angle). Both today and tomorrow (especially tomorrow!), WBGT forecasts rise into the high risk range for the large majority of Southeast Texas. High risk is a level 4 of 5 in these threat categories, with only extreme above it. Fortunately, there is no real area of extreme risk emerging tomorrow. HeatRisk - An experimental heat tool, this considers temperature in the context of how unusually high it gets, and the persistence of that heat - both overnight and over multiple days. Today, with temperatures a little closer to average than to records, HeatRisk is a mix of moderate and major impact (levels 2 and 3 of 4). Tomorrow, major impact potential becomes much more widespread across the area. On the upside, like with WBGT, there is no real emergence of an extreme impact potential tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 MVFR/IFR CIGs have been slow to fill in up north, so CLL and UTS TAFs are heavily front-loaded to bring conditions down to MVFR, then back up to VFR by mid to late morning. More broadly speaking, we`ll see light and generally SSW winds early strengthen to around or just under 10kts and more SSE, before weakening again tonight. Also bring back MVFR CIGs from IAH northward overnight. Haze from Saharan dust moving in late tonight may start to become noticeable, but expectation is this will be mostly well above ground and should not impact VSBY significantly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233356 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The theme of this weekend will be "What if peak of summer, but in early June?". Look for temperatures near daily records, and even if those records stay safe, it`ll be wise to keep heat safety at the front of mind as the nice weather and the weekend will surely pull many of us outside to enjoy the feel of grass. Some key points on the forecast: - With highs rising into the upper 90s for all but the immediate Gulf coast, record highs will be at risk both Saturday and Sunday. The most at risk will be Hobby Airport, whose records are 98 and 97, respectively. - The forecast heat index is the "trailing" heat intensity tool, and even it is forecast to be around/above 105 for inland counties. HeatRisk largely rises into the major impact range (level 3 of 4) on the persistent high-end temperatures, and high risk level wet bulb globe temps (level 4 of 5) are also forecast. - A stormier pattern returns early next week with a cold front sagging its way south through the state. At the least, we`ll be looking for daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorm development. Stay tuned in the coming days for more information on potential for severe storms or excessive rain in this stretch. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The short term is Ridge Time for the Texas Gulf Coast. An 592+ dm 500 mb high will be hanging out over the coast through today, and only retreat a tiny bit back towards the west by late Saturday night, keeping us fully under its reign for the entire period. At lower levels, continued onshore flow around high pressure off to our east means we`ll keep things good and humid as well. Sooo, yup, we`re not gonna really have anything to talk about except heat. As we build into the peak heat of the next week this weekend, we`ll mostly be exploring the nuances of the heat, and what kind of threat it poses to a place where heat is already a familiar, and common, foe this time of year. Temperatures - First off, we`ve got a pretty high floor. Average highs this time of year are roughly around 90 degrees. Today, I`ve got forecast highs beginning to reach into the mid 90s inland. Looking at the NBM probability distribution, there`s not much room for things to come in below that, either as confidence in the high-end heat is about as high. Today is the "uncertain" day, where the probability of a high above 90 is 70-100 percent for all but the immediate Gulf coast. Tomorrow looks even more confidently in the 90s, as my forecast now pushes into the middle to upper 90s and the NBM probability of highs above 90 degrees are 90-100 percent except for right on the Gulf. On the flip side, while we will eventually make some record highs look nervously over their shoulder, today probably isn`t quite that day. NBM probabilities fall to less than 10 percent for virtually the entire area at 95 degrees today. So while confidence is high that we get easily into the 90s today, the upper 90s seem off the table. To reach that same probability ceiling tomorrow, we drift upwards to 98 degrees. This tends to imply that even as the heat turns up, we`re still looking to fall short of daily records, which cluster around the century mark. So, while I`m quite confident Saturday highs will be uncomfortably close to records, I`d also be somewhat surprised to see any records fall. If one does, I`d put my money on Hobby, whose record high for June 7 is only 98 degrees. Things do not get much better at night, as low temps should be up in the middle to upper 70s both nights. Right on the immediate Gulf coast, temps may struggle to fall below 80 at all (sorry, Galveston). Heat Index - our traditional index to describe the combined impact of heat and humidity, expect the hot temps and humid conditions to result in peak heat index in the triple digits area-wide today, though generally in the 100-105 range. Tomorrow, things crank up more inland with the hotter temps, with forecast peak heat index of 104-109. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) - Similar to heat index in that it considers heat and humidity, but also uses wind speeds and solar intensity (due to both cloud cover and sun angle). Both today and tomorrow (especially tomorrow!), WBGT forecasts rise into the high risk range for the large majority of Southeast Texas. High risk is a level 4 of 5 in these threat categories, with only extreme above it. Fortunately, there is no real area of extreme risk emerging tomorrow. HeatRisk - An experimental heat tool, this considers temperature in the context of how unusually high it gets, and the persistence of that heat - both overnight and over multiple days. Today, with temperatures a little closer to average than to records, HeatRisk is a mix of moderate and major impact (levels 2 and 3 of 4). Tomorrow, major impact potential becomes much more widespread across the area. On the upside, like with WBGT, there is no real emergence of an extreme impact potential tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 MVFR cigs are expected to develop across our northern zones overnight, before trending VFR by mid-morning. Light and variable winds overnight, are expected to increase out of the south during the morning hours. By afternoon, winds are expected to back to the southeast. An isolated afternoon shra/tsra cannot be ruled out. No rain mentioned in the TAF as of now due to the expected isolated coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1233336 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 06.Jun.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Today has shaped up to be a very typical early summer day with high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s, southeasterly winds, and a splattering of isolated showers across the area. Not anticipating any of the strong storms that we saw yesterday afternoon, but could squeak out a rumble of thunder and a brief downpour out of one or two isolated storms this afternoon. Activity will wane after sunset with mild and muggy conditions expected tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland, and low 80s along the coast. Upper-level ridging begins to strengthen on Friday leading to drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures rising into the mid-90s for most areas along and north of I-10 up through the Piney Woods - and wouldn`t be shocked to see isolated areas within the Houston Metro rising into the upper 90s. Heat indices will rise into the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours. The hot weather only gets hotter for the weekend, but read more about that below. The arrival of some hazy conditions is expected Friday afternoon/evening as a layer of Saharan dust moves in from the Gulf. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern. Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 MVFR cigs are expected to develop across our northern zones overnight, before trending VFR by mid-morning. Light and variable winds overnight, are expected to increase out of the south during the morning hours. By afternoon, winds are expected to back to the southeast. An isolated afternoon shra/tsra cannot be ruled out. No rain mentioned in the TAF as of now due to the expected isolated coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through the end of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 76 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 76 94 78 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
