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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Houston, TX (Houston/Galveston, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1250329 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 31.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry air will remain in place Friday, albeit with light winds. After multiple dry days and background drought conditions, wildfires can ignite easily, but the lighter winds should help firefighting efforts be more effective. Still, no wildfire is better than one that can be fought easily. It`s important to continue to obey local burn bans and exercise great caution with any equipment that could spark a new fire. - Our next cold front moves through the area Saturday. We will see warmth and moisture trend upwards until it arrives, bringing some scattered shower/storm chances during the day. - Sunday looks fairly dry and modestly breezy behind the front, but conditions are not expected to be nearly as severe as we saw after the previous front. Fairly seasonable weather then prevails into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 High pressure has begun to take control over the region, setting us up for an end to the work week that will be dry, mostly sunny, and returning to afternoon highs right around seasonal averages. At some point during the day, though it now looks to be more of a mid to late-afternoon timeframe, onshore winds will return. Of course, this is pretty late, so we`re unlikely to see dewpoints start to meaningfully rise ahead of Saturday`s front until tonight. If you`ve been reading the AFDs from earlier in my stretch (hi, hello, welcome back!) - you`ll know I`ve been looking at the duration and efficiency as key to the convective forecast for Saturday, but also a very uncertain key. Well, today I feel a little more certain, and in a good way. The late arrival of onshore winds is going to limit the duration of moisture return, and a pre-frontal wind shift Saturday morning back towards easterly or even northeasterly is going to really mess with the efficiency of that return. This quiets what remaining concern I had about severe potential for Saturday, and I feel much more confident in advertising scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the best chance for storms being at the coast where we`ll manage to shuffle in the best quality boundary layer heat and humidity that we`ll be able to get this weekend. I do hedge a little above NBM on PoPs tomorrow afternoon, as the HREF mean precipitable water values are still near climo and even some speckles of 70th percentile PWATs Saturday afternoon. The HREF also suggests that PWATs over an inch are more likely than not for all but the northeastern corner of the area (where I keep slight chance PoPs) and 1.25 inches for the coastal counties. This is not an eye-popping amount of moisture, and I`ve certainly got no flooding concerns out of it, but it should be enough to get those scattered showers and isolated storms I mentioned in the last paragraph. To be honest, I wouldn`t mind a little more moisture and some nice, long duration showers across the area to tamp down the longer-term fuels trends for fire weather, but I`ll take what I can get - and some scattered rain with no serious severe threat is a nice thing to take. My apologies in advance to those who lose the rain lottery on Saturday - I`m quite certain there will be some who do still stay dry. Sunday puts us back in a post-frontal environment, complete with some cooler temps, drier air, and a bit more wind. However, it appears the deepest part of the incoming 850 cold pool will miss us well to the east, giving our area only a glancing blow. This should bring temps only down to a bit below early November averages, while the dry and windy portions of this incoming airmass should be much more modest than we saw after the brunt of the previous front. This is good for mitigating concerns both for fire weather and marine interests. Early next week ultimately looks to be quite seasonable with a gradual warming trend as ridging returns to the fore. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Light VRB winds through Friday afternoon, then becoming ESE late Friday afternoon and evening. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Light northerly winds tonight will gradually veer around to the southeast on Friday as high pressure moves away from the region. Another front is expected to sag into the waters on Saturday bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Though we will see a gradual wind shift through the day, speeds probably will not substantially increase until we get into the evening and overnight hours when Small Craft Advisories are likely. At the coast, the low water advisory has come to an end as winds relax and tides return to values very close to astronomical tide levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Though a decrease in winds will somewhat moderate fire weather conditions, we will still have low RH`s in place Friday. Minimum afternoon RH`s are forecast to be in the 25-30 percent inland locations and even down into the lower half of the 30s for many coastal locations. Only the immediate coastline looks to see RH hold above 40 percent all day Friday. Some improvement in the amount of humidity will be seen on Saturday, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected ahead of our next cold front moving into the region. A drier, windier day should be expected in the wake of the front Sunday, but not as severe as seen after the early week front. Some dry air should persist into early next week, but wind speeds do not look to be elevated. Continue to exercise caution and obey all local burn bans. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 43 73 47 73 / 0 0 10 30 Houston (IAH) 48 74 53 75 / 0 0 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 61 72 66 76 / 0 0 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
