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| #1209305 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 23.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 551 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Latest surface analysis indicates a broad center of high pressure near the Arklatex region. This system, which has slowly drifted to the east/northeast over the past 24 hours, will continue to move out of the area today. This will eventually bring about the return of an onshore flow regime and thus an increase in both temperatures and moisture levels. Expect a prevailing southerly surface wind to develop by this afternoon, allowing for highs later today that are a few degrees higher than yesterday (mid/upper 70s). A marked increase in overnight lows will follow given warm advection and an increase in cloud cover, with most locations remaining in the 50s (coast near 60). Look for highs to potentially break above 80 on Sunday as the onshore flow pattern continues to supply the area with warm and moist Gulf air. Perhaps a more noticeable impact of the pattern shift will be the increase in dew points to the mid 60s by Sunday afternoon. While the latest forecast has highs about 3-5 degrees off from daily records, it will nonetheless be unseasonably warm and humid. Overnight lows to close out the weekend will remain confined to the mid/upper 60s inland and near 70 along the immediate coast. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Still looking at the passage of a couple of cold fronts this week, but there`s some uncertainty regarding timing. - Rain chances will remain limited with these fronts. - Thanksgiving forecast at this time looks to be a mix of humid con- ditions, slightly warmer temperatures, cloudy skies, and the slight chance of showers during the day with the second stronger cold front pushing across the area during the evening/night-time hours. Mon`s forecast will be a warm one with strong onshore winds in place (in response to the surface low deepening over the Southern Plains). Highs on Mon should peak in the lower to mid 80s through the earlier parts of the day, but the passage of the first cold front during the late afternoon will lead to cooler/drier conditions by Mon night as lows fall into the 40s/50s. No POPs with FROPA for most of the CWFA given the limited low-level moisture, but we could see isolated de- velopment as the boundary reaches the coast/Gulf waters and stalls. The eventual shift of this front back north as a warm front on Tues will make for a tricky temperature forecast, but rain chances still not looking at much in terms of rain chances at that time. But with the WAA strengthening, isolated to scattered streamer showers could be a decent bet for Weds. This pattern should remain in place head- ing into Thurs/Thanksgiving day as temperatures/humidity levels in- crease further. Rain chances (still on the low end 10%-30%) will be ending with the passage of the second stronger cold front on Turkey Day proper itself. Current progs have the timing of this line in/a- round the northern CWA during the late morning/early afternoon then reaching the coast by sunset. Strong CAA setting over the region in the wake of the front should make for cool/dry conditions for Black Friday shopping. 41 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period, with light SE winds shifting further to the south over the course of the day. Wind speeds should remain under 10 knots. No rainfall and little cloud cover are expected. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Winds will continue to slowly veer to the E then SE today into to- night. This onshore flow will then be strengthening Sun/Mon as the next weather system develops across the Plains. Caution flags and/ or Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Sun afternoon but most likely for Mon. A cold front will push off the coast into the nearshore waters late Mon night then stalling in this general area by early Tues morning. Isolated showers/storms could form in and around this boundary before it lifts north sometime during the day on Tues a warm front. Increasing onshore winds/seas will be on tap Weds with Caution/Advisory flags possible once again. A second stronger cold front is expected to push across the region on Thurs (Thanksgiving Day)...and currently forecasted to reach the bays by Thurs evening. Strong offshore winds and high seas will likely de- velop in the wake of this front Thurs night into Fri with Advisory flags in place. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 55 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 57 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 68 77 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1209291 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 23.Nov.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 410 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Latest surface analysis indicates a broad center of high pressure near the Arklatex region. This system, which has slowly drifted to the east/northeast over the past 24 hours, will continue to move out of the area today. This will eventually bring about the return of an onshore flow regime and thus an increase in both temperatures and moisture levels. Expect a prevailing southerly surface wind to develop by this afternoon, allowing for highs later today that are a few degrees higher than yesterday (mid/upper 70s). A marked increase in overnight lows will follow given warm advection and an increase in cloud cover, with most locations remaining in the 50s (coast near 60). Look for highs to potentially break above 80 on Sunday as the onshore flow pattern continues to supply the area with warm and moist Gulf air. Perhaps a more noticeable impact of the pattern shift will be the increase in dew points to the mid 60s by Sunday afternoon. While the latest forecast has highs about 3-5 degrees off from daily records, it will nonetheless be unseasonably warm and humid. Overnight lows to close out the weekend will remain confined to the mid/upper 60s inland and near 70 along the immediate coast. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Still looking at the passage of a couple of cold fronts this week, but there`s some uncertainty regarding timing. - Rain chances will remain limited with these fronts. - Thanksgiving forecast at this time looks to be a mix of humid con- ditions, slightly warmer temperatures, cloudy skies, and the slight chance of showers during the day with the second stronger cold front pushing across the area during the evening/night-time hours. Mon`s forecast will be a warm one with strong onshore winds in place (in response to the surface low deepening over the Southern Plains). Highs on Mon should peak in the lower to mid 80s through the earlier parts of the day, but the passage of the first cold front during the late afternoon will lead to cooler/drier conditions by Mon night as lows fall into the 40s/50s. No POPs with FROPA for most of the CWFA given the limited low-level moisture, but we could see isolated de- velopment as the boundary reaches the coast/Gulf waters and stalls. The eventual shift of this front back north as a warm front on Tues will make for a tricky temperature forecast, but rain chances still not looking at much in terms of rain chances at that time. But with the WAA strengthening, isolated to scattered streamer showers could be a decent bet for Weds. This pattern should remain in place head- ing into Thurs/Thanksgiving day as temperatures/humidity levels in- crease further. Rain chances (still on the low end 10%-30%) will be ending with the passage of the second stronger cold front on Turkey Day proper itself. Current progs have the timing of this line in/a- round the northern CWA during the late morning/early afternoon then reaching the coast by sunset. Strong CAA setting over the region in the wake of the front should make for cool/dry conditions for Black Friday shopping. 41 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire TAF period. Light and variable winds will persist through the mid-morning hours of Saturday before picking up out of the east-southeast to southeast between 6-10 knots through the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to trend back towards light and variable once again after sunset. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Winds will continue to slowly veer to the E then SE today into to- night. This onshore flow will then be strengthening Sun/Mon as the next weather system develops across the Plains. Caution flags and/ or Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Sun afternoon but most likely for Mon. A cold front will push off the coast into the nearshore waters late Mon night then stalling in this general area by early Tues morning. Isolated showers/storms could form in and around this boundary before it lifts north sometime during the day on Tues a warm front. Increasing onshore winds/seas will be on tap Weds with Caution/Advisory flags possible once again. A second stronger cold front is expected to push across the region on Thurs (Thanksgiving Day)...and currently forecasted to reach the bays by Thurs evening. Strong offshore winds and high seas will likely de- velop in the wake of this front Thurs night into Fri with Advisory flags in place. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 55 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 57 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 68 77 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
