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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Houston, TX (Houston/Galveston, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1285056 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 09.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 531 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier colder weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Mid-upper low across northern Mexico will lift northeast and across the state Tuesday and Tuesday night. The next round of precipitation looks to expand across south Texas in the next several hours. This batch of rain should eventually track toward the Matagorda Bay region and our southwest counties toward sunrise...continuing enewd toward the I-45 corridor (generally Conroe to the coast heading into the mid morning and lunchtime hours). Until the upper trof axis pushes to our east, cloudy and cool conditions will persist into Tuesday. Impulses embedded in the flow aloft will intermittently track across the area and provide enough lift to produce some sprinkles or light rain at times. Better chances of accumulating rain, albeit light but much needed) should again be across southern and western portions of the CWA. (Higher pressure in the llvls from the ArkLatex area should sag swd will create less saturated moisture profiles closer to the surface...hence lower POPs across northern zones which`ll be more prone to virga if anything). Toward midweek, we`ll get into a drier nw flow aloft as western ridging makes its way toward the Rockies and a deeper trof digs across the eastern CONUS. Such a pattern will favor a cold frontal passage (probably late Wednesday night). It should be a dry fropa...followed by cooler temperatures filtering into the region Thurs-Sat. They`ll be most noticeable at night with lows in the 40s. High pressure moves off to the east Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend and a return of some rain chances early next week in advance of the next western trof. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Showers are currently pushing into the region from the west this morning and are expected to continue through late this afternoon. Periods of moderate rainfall could result in CIG/VIS reductions at times, especially late this morning into the afternoon. Showers taper off in the late afternoon/early evening, which may result in some brief improvements to flight conditions. CIGs/Fog will fill in overnight, resulting in MVFR conditions, possible lower in spots. These CIGs/Fog should clear out late Tuesday morning. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 East and northeast winds will diminish today as surface high pressure sinks into the region from the north and the pressure gradient weakens. Light winds and lower seas will then continue into midweek. Late Wednesday night and Thursday morning we should see our next cold front push into the coastal waters followed by moderate offshore winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories appear likely in the wake of the front. Winds/seas begin to diminish on Friday, followed by a return of southerly winds late Saturday as high pressure pushes off to the east. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 55 74 57 / 40 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 67 56 76 60 / 40 30 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 64 74 66 / 60 40 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
| #1285030 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 09.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier colder weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Mid-upper low across northern Mexico will lift northeast and across the state Tuesday and Tuesday night. The next round of precipitation looks to expand across south Texas in the next several hours. This batch of rain should eventually track toward the Matagorda Bay region and our southwest counties toward sunrise...continuing enewd toward the I-45 corridor (generally Conroe to the coast heading into the mid morning and lunchtime hours). Until the upper trof axis pushes to our east, cloudy and cool conditions will persist into Tuesday. Impulses embedded in the flow aloft will intermittently track across the area and provide enough lift to produce some sprinkles or light rain at times. Better chances of accumulating rain, albeit light but much needed) should again be across southern and western portions of the CWA. (Higher pressure in the llvls from the ArkLatex area should sag swd will create less saturated moisture profiles closer to the surface...hence lower POPs across northern zones which`ll be more prone to virga if anything). Toward midweek, we`ll get into a drier nw flow aloft as western ridging makes its way toward the Rockies and a deeper trof digs across the eastern CONUS. Such a pattern will favor a cold frontal passage (probably late Wednesday night). It should be a dry fropa...followed by cooler temperatures filtering into the region Thurs-Sat. They`ll be most noticeable at night with lows in the 40s. High pressure moves off to the east Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend and a return of some rain chances early next week in advance of the next western trof. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 SHRA / -SHRA is expected to push into the region this morning. Period cig/vis drops are expected, with the best chance of SHRA related vis/cig drops late morning into the afternoon. Flight conditions could initially improve early evening, before falling to MVFR later Sunday evening, with some potential for IFR after 06Z Monday. Winds should remain very light, though coastal areas can expect NE winds ~10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 East and northeast winds will diminish today as surface high pressure sinks into the region from the north and the pressure gradient weakens. Light winds and lower seas will then continue into midweek. Late Wednesday night and Thursday morning we should see our next cold front push into the coastal waters followed by moderate offshore winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories appear likely in the wake of the front. Winds/seas begin to diminish on Friday, followed by a return of southerly winds late Saturday as high pressure pushes off to the east. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 55 74 57 / 40 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 67 56 76 60 / 40 30 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 64 74 66 / 60 40 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
| #1285022 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:30 AM 09.Nov.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of mainly light rain for some locations. - Small Craft Advisory in effect for portions of the upper Texas coast for moderate east winds and 4-7ft seas. - Cold front is expected late Wednesday or early Thursday followed by drier colder weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 A cloudy and cool afternoon with temperatures generally running in the 60s. Light rain, spotty in some locations, will continue to move across portions of the region with the best chances for areas south of I-10, particularly over our southwestern counties. Deep surface convergence prevails over south-central TX while an upper level closed low continues to spin over the north- central MX before moving over TX in the coming days. Increased PVA with height ahead of the upper low and decent low moisture at the surface will support additional rounds of low clouds and light rain or drizzle on Monday and Tuesday. In fact, forecast soundings suggest this idea with widespread low clouds developing tonight into Monday, likely producing periods of drizzle across most of SE TX through late Monday morning. As the day progresses, a drier airmass at the 900:850 mb layer will gradually filter in from the northeast, reducing PoPs across our north and eastern counties. However, rain will continue with chances for most areas south of I-10, which is where the highest moisture availability and forcing persist. A rinse-a-repeat forecast is expected on Tuesday as the main upper low lifts to our north-northeast, though with skies scattering out a bit more, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s. By mid-week, a deepening trough over the eastern CONUS will drag a cold front across the region from Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain and storm chances are possible ahead of the FROPA, particularly over the coastal counties. A mid to upper level ridge will build in across the western CONUS by Thursday, bringing drier conditions through the weekend. Deterministic models and some ensembles continue to bring a brief surge of cooler airmass from the northeast Friday night into Saturday. Confidence remains low to moderate as the 12Z guidance shows slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures compared to previous runs. However, the general trend shows low temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across our far northeastern counties. Overall, expect a fall-like weekend with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 40s and 50s. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 SHRA / -SHRA is expected to push into the region this morning. Period cig/vis drops are expected, with the best chance of SHRA related vis/cig drops late morning into the afternoon. Flight conditions could initially improve early evening, before falling to MVFR later Sunday evening, with some potential for IFR after 06Z Monday. Winds should remain very light, though coastal areas can expect NE winds ~10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Moderate northeast winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft will continue through late this evening, particularly for the Gulf waters west of Freeport. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside overnight, though Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will likely continue through late Monday morning. Light northeast to east winds will return Monday evening, before a FROPA shifts winds to the northwest from late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds and seas may reach Advisory level after the frontal passage on Thursday. A few light showers are possible through midweek, with the best chances on Wednesday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 56 69 55 / 60 50 30 10 Houston (IAH) 69 57 68 57 / 30 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 72 63 71 65 / 20 20 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ |
