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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Houston, TX (Houston/Galveston, TX Area) Selection: |
| #1225373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 AM 03.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The normal high temperature for this time of the year is in the upper 70s...temperatures when you walk out the door later this morning will be within a couple of degrees as we`ll only bottom out in the low to mid 70s. We`ll count this as pre-heating for what`s to come later this afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep 850mb temperatures at or above the 90th percentile and some of that anomalously warmer air will mix down to the surface. This will lead to widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s...which means we`re going to be in record breaking territory (see the Climate section below for the daily records). Speaking of that, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s...we`ll be in record breaking territory overnight once again for record high minimum temperatures. A frontal boundary will still be meandering just north of Southeast Texas both today and tomorrow, but it`ll be just close enough to keep storm chances in for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. There`s a low chance that an isolated storm or two could become strong to severe in the afternoon to evening hours in parts of Houston County (NOT the city). SPC`s latest day 1 outlook only has Houston County in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today. We`ll be keeping the windy theme in for both today and Friday as strong LLJ`s (45-50+ kt at their peak) pass overhead. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect today for southern and eastern portions of Southeast Texas through 5pm...and you can expect another one on Friday as well. Friday will be a bit similar, but with slightly "cooler" temperatures (by a degree or two) and increasing rain chances up north as the frontal boundary gets a bit more southward movement. This is due to the advancement of an upper level trough with an embedded upper low over in the southwestern CONUS. The marginal risk of severe weather extends further south on Friday and includes areas north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. The timing for a few storms to potentially become strong to severe would again be in the afternoon to evening hours. The placement of the front Friday night will be the main factor in low temperatures. In front of the...front, low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Behind the front, low temperatures will be in the 60s...but that`s most likely to be relegated to the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. With low temperatures in the 70s in the short term period, you can imagine how humid it`ll be...so you wouldn`t be entirely surprised to hear that patchy fog will be possible along the coast overnight into the mid morning hours. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 KEY POINTS: - Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall risks possible Saturday with the highest probabilities north of I-10. - Drier and cooler conditions expected early next week, following the front. The cold front that has been stationary during the week, will finally make its way to southeast Texas by early Saturday morning as the main upper trough pushes to western TX. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead and along the boundary. Southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will keep surging deep Gulf moisture inland. The combination of deep moisture, decent low to mid level instability on the nose of a 40 to 50 knots LLJ, and strong bulk shear (40-50 kt), could potentially lead to strong/organized updrafts as the boundary moves through. At the moment, the greatest potential for strong to severe weather is for areas north of I-10, towards Piney Woods areas. All type of severe hazards will be possible if strong/severe storms develop (damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rain). Latest guidance brings the front near the Brazos Valley by early Saturday, close to the Houston metro around midday and along the coastal zones by mid/late afternoon. Will continue to monitor trends as global models show some lingering showers continue into Sunday; however, most ensembles show little to no precipitation after Saturday night. For now, will continue with rain tapering off from west to east by Saturday night. Behind the front, cooler conditions are expected with well below normal high/low temperatures. 850mb temperatures drop into the single digits degC by Sunday, suggesting surface highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will drop significantly into the 40s and low 50s (coast). A drier pattern with a gradual warming trend during the day, and cooler nights can be expected through mid-week next week. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR conditions will continue into Thu and some locations may lower to IFR at times during the overnight to early morning hours. Coastal areas may have some reduced vis due to patchy fog during the overnight to morning hours. There may be some periods when clouds scatter out a bit during in the afternoon, however, the low BKN/OVC ceilings should return Thu night. S-SE winds at around 08-15 KTS expected tonight with gusts of around 20 KTS on occasion. Winds will strengthen again to 15-22 KTS with gusts of around 25-30 KTS Thu morning as the llvl jet strengthens again. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 A long fetch of moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf is resulting in seas around 6 to 10+ ft across the Upper TX coast. These conditions along with moderate to strong onshore winds will persist through early this weekend as a cold front enters the waters on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Rain and storms will be on the increase by Saturday along and ahead the cold front. Hazardous beach conditions also continue through the week with a high rip current risk and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone to be impacted by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect. JM && .CLIMATE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature. There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few locations. Here are today`s daily records: Record High Maximum Temperatures: - College Station: 90F (1939) - Houston/Bush: 87F (2023) - Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023) - Palacios: 87F (1974) - Galveston: 84F (1998) Record High Minimum Temperatures: - College Station: 72F (2014) - Houston/Bush: 74F (2023) - Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023) - Palacios: 75F (2023) - Galveston: 74F (2023) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 88 73 88 67 / 10 10 50 70 Houston (IAH) 90 75 87 74 / 10 10 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 80 75 80 74 / 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225346 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 03.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Water Vapor imagery currently shows an broad upper level trough over the Southwest CONUS, with a shortwave trough downstream currently filling across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley. These two features should serve as the main driver of active weather across much of the CONUS over the next several days. For today, the shortwave will be the main feature of focus, with it`s deep surface low tightening the pressure gradient and establishing a 40-60 knot LLJ over much of the Mississippi River Valley for today. Gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect through 7 PM. As the shortwave & surface low track northeasterly, it`ll slowly push a cold front into the vicinity. Right now, that front is moving through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, but high resolution guidance suggests it will slow and eventually stall out over portions of the Brazos Valley later this evening. Showers are currently developing north of the I-10 corridor and the environment is showing some favorable ingredients for the development of stronger storms this afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis shows 30-60 knots of 6km bulk shear in place with ML CAPE reaching around 2500-3000 J/KG. ML CIN is around -25 to -100 J/KG presently, but HREF members have suggested that it could fall to -10 to -50 J/KG across our northern counties later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.5- 8.5 degC/km with forecast soundings showing modest instability in hail growth zone. In addition, these soundings are also show drier midlevels with TEI values near 25. 3km SRH ranges from 150-250 m2s2, though HREF members suggest that this will be decreasing over the next few hours. HREF Updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25 m2/s2 keep north of our CWA though this afternoon, and given lacking upper level forcing, it may prove difficult for these storms to organize. SPC currently has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms today. All severe hazards are on the table, though damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. The severe weather threat comes to an end later this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Thursday will see relatively similar conditions to that of today. While the pressure gradient briefly weakens overnight, the aforementioned broader trough over the Desert Southwest will spin up another surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient again and reinvigorating the LLJ for Thursday. This means another day of gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph. As a result, another Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday for most areas along and south of the US-59 corridor. The parameter space for Thursday remains largely unchanged compared to today. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of bulk shear in place on Thursday with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3400 J/KG in the afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -10 to -50 J/KG in areas north of I-10 during the afternoon. Forecast soundings still show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. The main differences compared to today are increased TEI values of 25-30, slightly higher 3km SRH, and greater SFC CAPE. In spite of cloudy skies, highs are forecasted to be a tad warmer, with more areas reaching the mid/upper 80s during the afternoon. With the stalled frontal boundary expected to stay north of our area, there still won`t be much forcing available to aid these storms, much like today. SPC has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms on Thursday as well. Once again, all severe hazards are on the table, though damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern. The severe weather threat is still very conditional, and storms could struggle to initiate due to lackluster forcing. The severe weather threat comes to an end once again Thursday evening as instability wanes. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Western trough will dig southward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico Friday. Lead disturbances on Friday should mostly take a trajectory along the quasi stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Big Bend to ArkLaTex area and where better chances of rain should be situated. But heading into late Friday night & Saturday, a strong shortwave is expected to kick out and track across West Texas into the Southern Plains and the front should get a push to the south. As this occurs, we should see better shra/tstm chances across the region and will need to keep an eye out for some embedded stronger cells. The front should track thru the area during the day Saturday and off the coast Saturday evening. Suspect the front will take the majority of available moisture with it, but some guidance is showing the trailing trof axis not fully making it past the area til late Monday. Regardless, we should see some much cooler wx filter into the area behind the frontal passage (40s/60s-70s) into early next week followed by a slow warming trend (~50/80) toward midweek. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR conditions will continue into Thu and some locations may lower to IFR at times during the overnight to early morning hours. Coastal areas may have some reduced vis due to patchy fog during the overnight to morning hours. There may be some periods when clouds scatter out a bit during in the afternoon, however, the low BKN/OVC ceilings should return Thu night. S-SE winds at around 08-15 KTS expected tonight with gusts of around 20 KTS on occasion. Winds will strengthen again to 15-22 KTS with gusts of around 25-30 KTS Thu morning as the llvl jet strengthens again. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A long fetch of 20-30kt south-southeast winds has set up across the western Gulf and are producing 6-10ft seas. This will continue (and probably increase another few feet) through at least Saturday morning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds will generally inhibit the dense fog potential, but mariners can also anticipate some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around times of high tide (this includes the lowest more- prone spots like HWY 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside). Chances for showers and storms will increase ahead of a strong late season cold front expected to push off the coast Saturday afternoon or evening. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 50 Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ178-179-199- 200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
