Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Fish Invest 99L has become TD SIX southwest of the Azores
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1279399 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 20.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 651 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will be approaching from the north on Tuesday while an upper trough approaches from the northwest. The low level forcing coupled with the mid level height falls will bring fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the drought situation QPF potential appears low unfortunately as the bulk of the moisture and forcing will remain north of the area. Wednesday also looks unsettled but less so as the front will be pushed south of the area by a wedge coming in from the north decreasing available moisture. Thereafter the upper low will cut off east of the MidAtlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the Southeast, possibly leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread VFR for much of the period. Storms off the coast this morning have been dissipating before moving inshore. Anticipate this trend continuing, although storms moving onshore will become more likely south of MYR, where the surface boundary lingers. Weak seabreeze will bring about an afternoon wind shift along the coast, although speeds will remain under 10 kt. Potential for MVFR fog Monday morning with best chances at inland terminals. However, confidence is low with the amount and thickness of cloud cover tonight playing a role in fog formation. Boundary layer winds will certainly be light enough for fog development. Extended Outlook...Storms are most likely to cause flight restrictions Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday. && .MARINE... A large area of weak pressure gradient off the southeast coast will minimize winds, short period waves, and swell early in the forecast period. A Tuesday night cold frontal passage should change conditions considerably as high pressure surges in from the north behind the boundary. By Wednesday N to NE winds will ramp up to advisory levels, though the eventual strength of the wind will hinge upon the currently uncertain strength and position of low pressure that forms off the MidAtlantic coast. Seas will also increase to SCA criteria with the same aforementioned uncertainty affecting just how much into SCA criteria seas grow. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1279381 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 20.Sep.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 223 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will be approaching from the north on Tuesday while an upper trough approaches from the northwest. The low level forcing coupled with the mid level height falls will bring fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the drought situation QPF potential appears low unfortunately as the bulk of the moisture and forcing will remain north of the area. Wednesday also looks unsettled but less so as the front will be pushed south of the area by a wedge coming in from the north decreasing available moisture. Thereafter the upper low will cut off east of the MidAtlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the Southeast, possibly leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally VFR as the previously anticipated stratus will generally remain just south of the area. Showers offshore of the Grand Strand have been dissipating before moving ashore and while confidence is moderate these should remain south of MYR and this moisture will manifest as a mid level ceiling for a portion of the day Sunday as well as at CRE. Some predawn fog is expected at LBT and FLO prior to daybreak. A few seabreeze-related wind shift FM groups needed at coastal terminals. && .MARINE... A large area of weak pressure gradient off the southeast coast will minimize winds, short period waves, and swell early in the forecast period. A Tuesday night cold frontal passage should change conditions considerably as high pressure surges in from the north behind the boundary. By Wednesday N to NE winds will ramp up to advisory levels, though the eventual strength of the wind will hinge upon the currently uncertain strength and position of low pressure that forms off the MidAtlantic coast. Seas will also increase to SCA criteria with the same aforementioned uncertainty affecting just how much into SCA criteria seas grow. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
