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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1231918 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 PM 25.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 329 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Below normal temperatures and multiple periods of wet weather are expected the first half of the week as a front meanders across the Carolinas. A cold front should finally push firmly offshore on Friday bringing drier weather in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The frontal boundary is rather diffuse early this afternoon, however it appears to remain just south of Charleston SC as of 18Z. It should make its way northward overnight as a weak wave of low pressure moves NE just off the SC coast and crosses Cape Fear after 06Z Mon. This scenario would keep the most concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, currently located just east of CHS, off the coast tonight. Convective activity across NE SC and SE NC will be lighter and more scattered in nature, with a lull from about 09- 15Z before some redevelopment as daytime heating gets underway. Overnight lows tonight will range from the low 60s north to mid/upper 60s south and beaches. Highs Monday not too dissimilar from today, with mid 70s north and lower 80s south. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... West-southwesterly flow from 850 mb up through 500 mb will bring deep Gulf moisture across the Carolinas the first half of the week. The 12z NAM shows precipitable water value in the 1.75 to almost 2.0 inch range Monday night through Wednesday morning. Low level forcing will be provided by a slow moving warm front returning north along the Southeast coast Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This spells wet weather focused on Tuesday afternoon and again late Tuesday night through Wednesday where forecast PoPs remain as high as 70-80 percent. Although the overall forecast timing of fronts and rain potential has only shifted maybe 6 hours later since yesterday, model preference has shifted more dramatically. Today`s 12z GFS appears to be an outlier with its weak swath of northeast winds behind the front Monday night into Tuesday and I`ve leaned more heavily on the NAM and ECMWF during that time period. Diurnal temperature ranges will remain small through the period given the rather high potential for clouds and precipitation. Tuesday`s highs in particular could remain lower than forecast if the NAM were to exactly verify as an in-situ wedge may develop. I`ve decreased Tuesday`s forecast highs to near the NBM 25th percentile values with 72-77 from west to east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The warm front should lift north through the area Wednesday leaving a south to southwest low level flow by Wednesday night. It will still be a conditionally unstable airmass with plenty of deep moisture so PoPs in the "chance" range will continue. Instability should grow Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possibly achieving 50-60 percent coverage due to 30 knot mid level winds. 850-700 mb flow should begin to veer clockwise and more westerly Thursday afternoon which should cut off the Gulf connection, reducing precipitable water and reducing the coverage of showers and storms from this point forward. The 12z ECMWF and Canadian are in agreement with each other and with yesterday`s idea of a cold front moving through the area Friday. This could be the last gasp for any convection as offshore winds in the wake of the front should lead to much lower chances for showers late Friday into Saturday. It`s worth noting the 12z GFS handles the upper pattern very differently the most other models this weekend across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and is assumed to be an outlier for now. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Moderate to High confidence in VFR conditions continuing into early evening, as main convective activity remains south of the terminals, i.e. south of the frontal boundary. Probability of showers and tstms, and associated MVFR conditions impacting the terminals increases during the evening, but timing uncertainties remain, as impacts will depend on evolution of convection. Confidence in IFR ceilings late tonight and Monday morning is highest for KLBT and KFLO. Can`t be ruled out for the coastal terminals, but confidence is lower. Extended Outlook...A frontal boundary across the area will lead to moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and reduced vsby from associated pcpn. The front will waver across and south of the area Mon thru Wed with continued potential for MVFR/IFR thresholds being met. && .MARINE... Through Monday...A weak frontal boundary in the vicinity of CHS this afternoon will lift north across the waters overnight, along with a weak wave of low pressure will will track northward along the coast. The gradient, and therefore wind speeds, will remain relatively weak, 10 kts or less, and will veer from SE to SW as the low moves by. The area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Georgetown this afternoon will move more east than north through the afternoon, followed by a lull in convection over the waters early this evening. Redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this evening and overnight as the frontal boundary and weak low track across the area. Potential for more showers/tstms continues Monday, particularly in the afternoon. Seas will be generally 2 ft tonight through much of Monday, building to 3-4 ft late Monday afternoon north of Cape Fear. Monday night through Friday...A complex weather pattern is shaping up for the first two-thirds of the week bringing potential impacts from winds, seas, and thunderstorms. In terms of model preference, the 12z GFS appears to be an outlier with its handling of winds Monday night into Tuesday. Compared to previous GFS runs and the bulk of new 12z models, the GFS`s new output has little support. I`ve used the NAM and ECMWF as the basis for winds in the short term, switching to NBM blends in the longer term. A front will push southward across the Carolina coastal waters Monday evening. A belt of enhanced northeasterly winds 15-20 knots is expected to develop behind this front Monday night into Tuesday morning, raising seas up to 4-5 feet within 20 miles of shore. We may be close to Small Craft Advisory criteria for at least a 6-8 hour period near Cape Fear. After stalling across Georgia during the day Tuesday, the front will begin to lift northward again Tuesday night, pulled by low pressure advancing northeastward out of TX through the Ozarks. The frontal progression appears to be slower to occur than was thought 24 hours ago. As the Ozarks low moves through the Ohio Valley Wednesday it will push a new cold front eastward, finally reaching the coastal Carolinas sometime Friday. Multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected prior to this frontal passage. By Friday drier air on offshore winds should diminish the threat for additional convection, and seas should begin to diminish with the shorter offshore fetch. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231891 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 25.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1233 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving across the Mid South will lift a warm front across the Carolinas, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. The front should dip back south on Memorial Day, but then return north again Tuesday bringing another period of wet weather into Wednesday. Temperatures at or slightly below normal will return back to near above normal late in the week with showers and storms becoming more isolated. && .UPDATE... Surface front was located in the vicinity of Hilton Head SC at 14Z, and appears to be lifting north. It should approach a FLO- ILM line by late afternoon. Scattered showers will continue across the forecast area...lighter north of the boundary, but heavier cells will be embedded along and south of the front. Have bumped up PoPs in line with latest radar trends, and may have to make some slight adjustments to max temps today. They may need to be tweaked down 2-3 degrees north of the boundary, where clouds, northerly flow, and scattered light showers could prevent temps from rising beyond the mid 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stalled sfc front, due to westerly flow aloft, in the vicinity of the Savannah River Valley extending ENE and offshore, will waver northward later today thru tonight. This the result of a weak sfc low upstream moving along it, and aided by a mid-level southern stream s/w trof pushing tow the SE States coast later today thru this evening and off the mainland late tonight. This will lift the stalled front to the Cape Fear region this evening then the front will waver back south of the FA as a cold front around or after daybreak Mon. Pcpn will be spotty this morning, increasing in coverage this aftn from WSW to ENE, and finally encompassing the entire ILM CWA tonight. Spotty pcpn with mid and high level clouds thru midday today, followed by increasing POPs this aftn and especially tonight. Embedded convection especially in the vicinity and south of the wavering front can be expected. Cloudiness and pcpn will keep highs aob 80 degrees today, with widespread 60s for lows tonight, low 60s across southeast NC and mid to upper 60s across Northeast SC which for the most part will be south of the boundary tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will be moving offshore at the start of the period, with a stationary front paralleling the coast as it`s pulled north by surface low pressure. This should concentrate rain chances to the coast, decreasing through the day as the front is pushed south of our area. Though moisture doesn`t really abate into Monday night, subsidence behind the low should decrease shower coverage with some spots being dry. High pressure will ridge down from the north reminiscent of CAD, and this paired with lingering clouds and showers supports lowering of highs Tuesday by a couple degrees, particularly inland where we could see lower 70s. The high will move offshore to our north as another disturbance moves in from the west, increasing rain chances into Tuesday night as the front is dragged north once more. Highs shouldn`t see much change Mon to Tues assuming CAD stays in place, as models usually have temperatures recovering too fast in these patterns. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highest confidence for showers and storms remains Wednesday as a large swath of moisture moves in from due to a low in the Midwest. The stalled front should still be in the area, also aiding in increasing coverage. POPs then remain around 30-40% through the majority of the work week as the front may remain in the area. The front should move offshore for the weekend but low rain chances will remain. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Moderate to High confidence in VFR conditions continuing into early evening, as main convective activity remains south of the terminals, i.e. south of the frontal boundary. Probability of showers and tstms, and associated MVFR conditions impacting the terminals increases during the evening, but timing uncertainties remain, as impacts will depend on evolution of convection. Confidence in IFR ceilings late tonight and Monday morning is highest for KLBT and KFLO. Can`t be ruled out for the coastal terminals, but confidence is lower. Extended Outlook...A frontal boundary across the area will lead to moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and reduced vsby from associated pcpn. The front will waver across and south of the area Mon thru Wed with continued potential for MVFR/IFR thresholds being met. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Stalled frontal boundary near the mouth of the Savannah River, will waver northward today as low pressure moves along it lifting it as a warm front reaching the Cape Fear area later tonight. Looking at NE to E winds aob 10 kt today, veering to the SE and possibly S at 10-15 kt if the warm front is able to is able to lift to or north of the area waters. However, late tonight once the low moves off to the NE out over the Atlantic, the backside of the front will waver southward, as a cold front, with winds likely becoming NW to NE 10-15 g20kt by sunrise Memorial Day. Pcpn will be isolated this morning increasing in coverage this afternoon and especially tonight with embedded thunder thrown in. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft, with wind waves around 4 second periods dominating. An underlying small ESE-SE swell at 8 to 9 second periods will remain present. Monday through Friday...A stationary front will remain in the area wavering north and south as disturbances move through. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with highest chances through midweek for now. Strong NE flow will build in Monday lingering through midweek, with lighter S flow building in for the latter half of the work week. Seas generally 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High high astronomical tides from a New Moon occurring Mon, will combine with onshore winds and pcpn to produce a minor coastal flood threat. This threat includes the immediate coast, along the Intra-Coastal Waterway and back bays and sounds. This minor threat will also include the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231888 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 25.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1008 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving across the Mid South will lift a warm front across the Carolinas, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. The front should dip back south on Memorial Day, but then return north again Tuesday bringing another period of wet weather into Wednesday. Temperatures at or slightly below normal will return back to near above normal late in the week with showers and storms becoming more isolated. && .UPDATE... Surface front was located in the vicinity of Hilton Head SC at 14Z, and appears to be lifting north. It should approach a FLO- ILM line by late afternoon. Scattered showers will continue across the forecast area...lighter north of the boundary, but heavier cells will be embedded along and south of the front. Have bumped up PoPs in line with latest radar trends, and may have to make some slight adjustments to max temps today. They may need to be tweaked down 2-3 degrees north of the boundary, where clouds, northerly flow, and scattered light showers could prevent temps from rising beyond the mid 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stalled sfc front, due to westerly flow aloft, in the vicinity of the Savannah River Valley extending ENE and offshore, will waver northward later today thru tonight. This the result of a weak sfc low upstream moving along it, and aided by a mid-level southern stream s/w trof pushing tow the SE States coast later today thru this evening and off the mainland late tonight. This will lift the stalled front to the Cape Fear region this evening then the front will waver back south of the FA as a cold front around or after daybreak Mon. Pcpn will be spotty this morning, increasing in coverage this aftn from WSW to ENE, and finally encompassing the entire ILM CWA tonight. Spotty pcpn with mid and high level clouds thru midday today, followed by increasing POPs this aftn and especially tonight. Embedded convection especially in the vicinity and south of the wavering front can be expected. Cloudiness and pcpn will keep highs aob 80 degrees today, with widespread 60s for lows tonight, low 60s across southeast NC and mid to upper 60s across Northeast SC which for the most part will be south of the boundary tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will be moving offshore at the start of the period, with a stationary front paralleling the coast as it`s pulled north by surface low pressure. This should concentrate rain chances to the coast, decreasing through the day as the front is pushed south of our area. Though moisture doesn`t really abate into Monday night, subsidence behind the low should decrease shower coverage with some spots being dry. High pressure will ridge down from the north reminiscent of CAD, and this paired with lingering clouds and showers supports lowering of highs Tuesday by a couple degrees, particularly inland where we could see lower 70s. The high will move offshore to our north as another disturbance moves in from the west, increasing rain chances into Tuesday night as the front is dragged north once more. Highs shouldn`t see much change Mon to Tues assuming CAD stays in place, as models usually have temperatures recovering too fast in these patterns. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highest confidence for showers and storms remains Wednesday as a large swath of moisture moves in from due to a low in the Midwest. The stalled front should still be in the area, also aiding in increasing coverage. POPs then remain around 30-40% through the majority of the work week as the front may remain in the area. The front should move offshore for the weekend but low rain chances will remain. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Moderate to High confidence in VFR conditions continuing thru midday as weak sfc high pressure slides offshore while a stalled front south of the area begins to slowly lift northward. Mid level cloud deck will intermittently produce VFR light rain showers. Threat for MVFR/IFR conditions will come from a mid- level s/w trof that will approach the eastern Carolinas from the west this morning, moving across the area this aftn thru tonight. Looking at increasing chances for pcpn with 30 prob groups covering all terminals from late this morning inland terminals, and thru the aftn and night across all terminals. Pcpn to become a prevailing condition around 06Z. Kept the threat for thunder across all terminals mainly this aftn thru tonight as the mid-level s/w trof and sfc boundary combine their dynamics. Winds generally NE 5 kt or less, slowly veering to the E then SE to S around 5 kt tonight as the warm front inches its furthest northern extent before settling back to the south by the end of this fcst period. Extended Outlook...A stalled front just south of the area late tonight will slowly return north as a warm front, reaching the Cape Fear area tonight. Look for moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and reduced vsby from pcpn associated with. The front will waver across and south of the area Mon thru Wed with continued potential for MVFR/IFR thresholds being met. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Stalled frontal boundary near the mouth of the Savannah River, will waver northward today as low pressure moves along it lifting it as a warm front reaching the Cape Fear area later tonight. Looking at NE to E winds aob 10 kt today, veering to the SE and possibly S at 10-15 kt if the warm front is able to is able to lift to or north of the area waters. However, late tonight once the low moves off to the NE out over the Atlantic, the backside of the front will waver southward, as a cold front, with winds likely becoming NW to NE 10-15 g20kt by sunrise Memorial Day. Pcpn will be isolated this morning increasing in coverage this afternoon and especially tonight with embedded thunder thrown in. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft, with wind waves around 4 second periods dominating. An underlying small ESE-SE swell at 8 to 9 second periods will remain present. Monday through Friday...A stationary front will remain in the area wavering north and south as disturbances move through. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with highest chances through midweek for now. Strong NE flow will build in Monday lingering through midweek, with lighter S flow building in for the latter half of the work week. Seas generally 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High high astronomical tides from a New Moon occurring Mon, will combine with onshore winds and pcpn to produce a minor coastal flood threat. This threat includes the immediate coast, along the Intra-Coastal Waterway and back bays and sounds. This minor threat will also include the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231872 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 25.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 700 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving across the Mid South will lift a warm front across the Carolinas, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. The front should dip back south on Memorial Day, but then return north again Tuesday bringing another period of wet weather into Wednesday. Temperatures at or slightly below normal will return back to near above normal late in the week with showers and storms becoming more isolated. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stalled sfc front, due to westerly flow aloft, in the vicinity of the Savannah River Valley extending ENE and offshore, will waver northward later today thru tonight. This the result of a weak sfc low upstream moving along it, and aided by a mid-level southern stream s/w trof pushing tow the SE States coast later today thru this evening and off the mainland late tonight. This will lift the stalled front to the Cape Fear region this evening then the front will waver back south of the FA as a cold front around or after daybreak Mon. Pcpn will be spotty this morning, increasing in coverage this aftn from WSW to ENE, and finally encompassing the entire ILM CWA tonight. Spotty pcpn with mid and high level clouds thru midday today, followed by increasing POPs this aftn and especially tonight. Embedded convection especially in the vicinity and south of the wavering front can be expected. Cloudiness and pcpn will keep highs aob 80 degrees today, with widespread 60s for lows tonight, low 60s across southeast NC and mid to upper 60s across Northeast SC which for the most part will be south of the boundary tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will be moving offshore at the start of the period, with a stationary front paralleling the coast as it`s pulled north by surface low pressure. This should concentrate rain chances to the coast, decreasing through the day as the front is pushed south of our area. Though moisture doesn`t really abate into Monday night, subsidence behind the low should decrease shower coverage with some spots being dry. High pressure will ridge down from the north reminiscent of CAD, and this paired with lingering clouds and showers supports lowering of highs Tuesday by a couple degrees, particularly inland where we could see lower 70s. The high will move offshore to our north as another disturbance moves in from the west, increasing rain chances into Tuesday night as the front is dragged north once more. Highs shouldn`t see much change Mon to Tues assuming CAD stays in place, as models usually have temperatures recovering too fast in these patterns. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highest confidence for showers and storms remains Wednesday as a large swath of moisture moves in from due to a low in the Midwest. The stalled front should still be in the area, also aiding in increasing coverage. POPs then remain around 30-40% through the majority of the work week as the front may remain in the area. The front should move offshore for the weekend but low rain chances will remain. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Moderate to High confidence in VFR conditions continuing thru midday as weak sfc high pressure slides offshore while a stalled front south of the area begins to slowly lift northward. Mid level cloud deck will intermittently produce VFR light rain showers. Threat for MVFR/IFR conditions will come from a mid- level s/w trof that will approach the eastern Carolinas from the west this morning, moving across the area this aftn thru tonight. Looking at increasing chances for pcpn with 30 prob groups covering all terminals from late this morning inland terminals, and thru the aftn and night across all terminals. Pcpn to become a prevailing condition around 06Z. Kept the threat for thunder across all terminals mainly this aftn thru tonight as the mid-level s/w trof and sfc boundary combine their dynamics. Winds generally NE 5 kt or less, slowly veering to the E then SE to S around 5 kt tonight as the warm front inches its furthest northern extent before settling back to the south by the end of this fcst period. Extended Outlook...A stalled front just south of the area late tonight will slowly return north as a warm front, reaching the Cape Fear area tonight. Look for moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and reduced vsby from pcpn associated with. The front will waver across and south of the area Mon thru Wed with continued potential for MVFR/IFR thresholds being met. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Stalled frontal boundary near the mouth of the Savannah River, will waver northward today as low pressure moves along it lifting it as a warm front reaching the Cape Fear area later tonight. Looking at NE to E winds aob 10 kt today, veering to the SE and possibly S at 10-15 kt if the warm front is able to is able to lift to or north of the area waters. However, late tonight once the low moves off to the NE out over the Atlantic, the backside of the front will waver southward, as a cold front, with winds likely becoming NW to NE 10-15 g20kt by sunrise Memorial Day. Pcpn will be isolated this morning increasing in coverage this afternoon and especially tonight with embedded thunder thrown in. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft, with wind waves around 4 second periods dominating. An underlying small ESE-SE swell at 8 to 9 second periods will remain present. Monday through Friday...A stationary front will remain in the area wavering north and south as disturbances move through. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with highest chances through midweek for now. Strong NE flow will build in Monday lingering through midweek, with lighter S flow building in for the latter half of the work week. Seas generally 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High high astronomical tides from a New Moon occurring Mon, will combine with onshore winds and pcpn to produce a minor coastal flood threat. This threat includes the immediate coast, along the Intra-Coastal Waterway and back bays and sounds. This minor threat will also include the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231859 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 25.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 417 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving across the Mid South will lift a warm front across the Carolinas, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. The front should dip back south on Memorial Day, but then return north again Tuesday bringing another period of wet weather into Wednesday. Temperatures at or slightly below normal will return back to near above normal late in the week with showers and storms becoming more isolated. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Stalled sfc front, due to westerly flow aloft, in the vicinity of the Savannah River Valley extending ENE and offshore, will waver northward later today thru tonight. This the result of a weak sfc low upstream moving along it, and aided by a mid-level southern stream s/w trof pushing tow the SE States coast later today thru this evening and off the mainland late tonight. This will lift the stalled front to the Cape Fear region this evening then the front will waver back south of the FA as a cold front around or after daybreak Mon. Pcpn will be spotty this morning, increasing in coverage this aftn from WSW to ENE, and finally encompassing the entire ILM CWA tonight. Spotty pcpn with mid and high level clouds thru midday today, followed by increasing POPs this aftn and especially tonight. Embedded convection especially in the vicinity and south of the wavering front can be expected. Cloudiness and pcpn will keep highs aob 80 degrees today, with widespread 60s for lows tonight, low 60s across southeast NC and mid to upper 60s across Northeast SC which for the most part will be south of the boundary tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave will be moving offshore at the start of the period, with a stationary front paralleling the coast as it`s pulled north by surface low pressure. This should concentrate rain chances to the coast, decreasing through the day as the front is pushed south of our area. Though moisture doesn`t really abate into Monday night, subsidence behind the low should decrease shower coverage with some spots being dry. High pressure will ridge down from the north reminiscent of CAD, and this paired with lingering clouds and showers supports lowering of highs Tuesday by a couple degrees, particularly inland where we could see lower 70s. The high will move offshore to our north as another disturbance moves in from the west, increasing rain chances into Tuesday night as the front is dragged north once more. Highs shouldn`t see much change Mon to Tues assuming CAD stays in place, as models usually have temperatures recovering too fast in these patterns. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highest confidence for showers and storms remains Wednesday as a large swath of moisture moves in from due to a low in the Midwest. The stalled front should still be in the area, also aiding in increasing coverage. POPs then remain around 30-40% through the majority of the work week as the front may remain in the area. The front should move offshore for the weekend but low rain chances will remain. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions continuing thru the remainder of the overnight through midday Sunday as weak sfc high pressure slides offshore while a stalled front south of the area begins to slowly lift northward. Looking at increasing high level and mid level clouds during this period. Could see a few light showers from these midlevel clouds this morning but not enough to include with any terminal. Threat for MVFR conditions will come from a mid-level s/w trof that will approach the eastern Carolinas from the west this morning, moving across the area this aftn thru tonight. Looking at increasing chances for pcpn with 30 prob groups covering all terminals from late this morning inland terminals, and thru the aftn and early evening across all terminals. Pcpn to become a prevailing condition by the end of the 06Z fcst period. Kept the threat for thunder across terminals mainly this aftn thru early evening. Winds generally NE 5 kt or less, slowly veering to the E then SE around 5 kt tonight as the warm front inches further northward. Extended Outlook...A stalled front just south of the area late tonight will slowly return north as a warm front, crossing the area next week. Look for moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and reduced vsby from pcpn. At this time there are two windows that appear most susceptible for aviation impacts: late Sun night thru midday Mon and again Tue night thru midday Wed. Wind waves around 4 second periods to dominate but with an occasional small ESE-SAE swell at 8 to 9 second period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Stalled frontal boundary near the mouth of the Savannah River, will waver northward today as low pressure moves along it lifting it as a warm front reaching the Cape Fear area later tonight. Looking at NE to E winds aob 10 kt today, veering to the SE and possibly S at 10-15 kt if the warm front is able to is able to lift to or north of the area waters. However, late tonight once the low moves off to the NE out over the Atlantic, the backside of the front will waver southward, as a cold front, with winds likely becoming NW to NE 10-15 g20kt by sunrise Memorial Day. Pcpn will be isolated this morning increasing in coverage this afternoon and especially tonight with embedded thunder thrown in. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft, with wind waves around 4 second periods dominating. An underlying small ESE-SE swell at 8 to 9 second periods will remain present. Monday through Friday...A stationary front will remain in the area wavering north and south as disturbances move through. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with highest chances through midweek for now. Strong NE flow will build in Monday lingering through midweek, with lighter S flow building in for the latter half of the work week. Seas generally 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High high astronomical tides from a New Moon occurring Mon, will combine with onshore winds and pcpn to produce a minor coastal flood threat. This threat includes the immediate coast, along the Intra-Coastal Waterway and back bays and sounds. This minor threat will also include the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231852 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 25.May.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 200 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving across the Mid South will lift a front across the Carolinas, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. The front should dip south on Memorial Day, but return north again Tuesday bringing another period of wet weather into Wednesday. Temperatures should return to normal late in the week with showers and storms becoming more isolated. && .UPDATE... No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Progressive flow aloft is pushing a weak surface high across the Carolinas, which will move off the coast this evening. A weak surface trough will approach the area after midnight, with guidance mixed on how far south it will progress. Short-range ensemble suggests it will make it to near a FLO-ILM line by 12Z Sunday before lifting north. Moisture will increase west to east through the day, and interaction with this boundary will lead to scattered showers, with the possibility of thunder during the afternoon. Best chances for precip during the daytime hours Sunday should occur over our SC zones, where PoPs will increase to 50-60% after 18Z. Lows tonight will fall to around 60, with highs Sunday ranging from around 80 north, to lower 80s Georgetown and Williamsburg counties. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An extended period of unsettled weather that begins Sunday will persist through at least the middle of the week. An active southern branch of the jet will bring a series of low amplitude disturbances across the Carolinas. Streamlines at 850 and 700 mb point back to the Gulf which should advect deep moisture overhead with precipitable water values peaking near 1.80 inches early Monday and again late Tuesday. The surface pattern Sunday night will feature a front stalled across central North Carolina. A wave of low pressure rippling eastward along the front should help organize a large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms Sunday night. The low is expected to reach the NC coast Monday morning, pushing the front south all the way to the FL/GA state line by Monday night. Forecast PoPs as high as 70 percent Sunday night into early Monday will accompany this frontal wave. Enough subsidence should follow the low after it exits the coast to bring a period of mainly dry (but still mostly cloudy) weather late Monday through Tuesday morning. However the next subtle disturbance approaching from the west should begin to lift the front back to the north again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Another surge of showers with embedded thunderstorms should develop across the area with forecast PoPs again surging to 70 percent. Diurnal temperature ranges will be constrained by the clouds and periods of rain with highs expected to remain in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday. Monday night`s lows could dip into the upper 50s away from the beaches, with 60s expected otherwise through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model spread increases considerably by Wednesday concerning the timing of arrival of the next wave of low pressure. Among current models the GFS seems to be the preferred solution bringing the low across the area and off the coast during the day Wednesday. Last night`s 00z ECWMF and the newer 12z were both slightly slower, but today`s 12z Canadian is considerably slower than both. I`m maintaining high PoPs (70 percent) through Wednesday morning, then ramping down to 30-50 percent Wednesday night. There is considerable uncertainty with Thursday`s forecast. Rainfall should become more scattered and diurnal in nature without the focusing of the old front nearby. West-southwesterly winds from 850-500 mb and the likely continuation of subtle upper disturbances rippling overhead will likely ignite scattered batches of showers and thunderstorms, but timing is very difficult at this extended time range. Highs should return to the mid 80s with some more sunshine expected with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. There`s broad consensus that the next cold front will arrive on Friday, accompanied by 30-40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble spread becomes such that I`m maintaining small PoPs for diurnal convection next Saturday given uncertainty in the surface and upper pattern by then. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions continuing thru the remainder of the overnight through midday Sunday as weak sfc high pressure slides offshore while a stalled front south of the area begins to slowly lift northward. Looking at increasing high level and mid level clouds during this period. Could see a few light showers from these midlevel clouds this morning but not enough to include with any terminal. Threat for MVFR conditions will come from a mid-level s/w trof that will approach the eastern Carolinas from the west this morning, moving across the area this aftn thru tonight. Looking at increasing chances for pcpn with 30 prob groups covering all terminals from late this morning inland terminals, and thru the aftn and early evening across all terminals. Pcpn to become a prevailing condition by the end of the 06Z fcst period. Kept the threat for thunder across terminals mainly this aftn thru early evening. Winds generally NE 5 kt or less, slowly veering to the E then SE around 5 kt tonight as the warm front inches further northward. Extended Outlook...A stalled front just south of the area late tonight will slowly return north as a warm front, crossing the area next week. Look for moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in ceilings and reduced vsby from pcpn. At this time there are two windows that appear most susceptible for aviation impacts: late Sun night thru midday Mon and again Tue night thru midday Wed. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...High pressure building across the waters from west to east this afternoon will yield light winds, which will veer from ENE to ESE by this evening. A weak surface trough will approach from the north overnight and is expected to make it to near Cape Fear by 12Z Sunday before stalling and returning north. Winds on the north side of the boundary will become northerly, though speeds will remain light. Although there is uncertainty on how far south the wind shift will make it, SSE winds should increase to 10-15 kts across all waters by early Sunday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be minimal early in the day, with chances increasing during the afternoon. Sunday Night through Thursday...An extended period of unsettled weather will begin Sunday evening and last through at least the middle of the week. Weak low pressure moving along a front stalled across North Carolina should bring waves of showers and thunderstorms across the area Sunday night. As the low moves off the NC coast Monday the front will get a kick southward and should stall near the FL/GA state line Monday night. A period of breezy northeast winds should develop along the Carolina coast during the day Monday and last into Monday night, possibly reaching 20 knots at times. Given the large number of mariners anticipated to be active Monday, the wind and subsequent choppy waves could be rather impactful. Low pressure moving northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday will begin to pull the stalled front northward again, likely veering our winds southeasterly by late Tuesday afternoon, then southerly by late Tuesday night as the front returns to the area. Models paint a variety of possible locations for where the surface low could track but most are far enough inland to maintain southerly winds across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. The front`s arrival will likely be preceded by another period of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
