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| #1257067 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 13.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 907 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... In the near term, no major changes coming down the track as we approach 7 AM EST. Updated 12Z TAF discussion below. All other previous discussions still apply. Forecast lows Thursday night have been adjusted colder, but wind chills are little changed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather continues through tonight, with high temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal. 2) Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system moves overhead. 3) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through tonight, with high temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal. Some good radiational cooling has occurred just past midnight, as temperatures continue to dip towards the 20s. Some cirrus that is streaming in from the west has thickened up over the last hour or so, which I believe has already started to hinder the cooling. May need to back off on some of the hourly temperature forecasts as we head through the rest of this morning. Elsewhere, quiet forecast still in store through tonight. A shortwave moves through late this morning, but doesn`t really do much at all to change the sensible weather. Plenty of sunshine on the way, with highs creeping up into the upper 50s to near 60. This will solidly be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday, about a degree or two above normal for mid-January. Southwesterly flow starts building in tonight ahead of the next disturbance. This causes low temperatures to be considerably warmer than the last couple of nights, generally in the mid-to-upper 30s inland, lower 40s at the coast.here. KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system moves overhead. A southern stream shortwave will be pulled northeastward and across the Carolinas on Wednesday by a deep upper level trough developing across the Great Lakes. This shortwave will carry a slug of mid level moisture with it, visible on model 700 mb progs between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Isentropic analysis within the moisture-bearing layer shows only modest upglide, but still likely enough to produce light rain with less than 0.10 inches expected. Forecast PoPs have been tweaked higher to 40-50 percent along the coast centered on Wednesday afternoon. Very dry air between the mid level cloud base and the surface means there could be evaporational cooling as precipitation begins. I`ve kept Wednesday`s forecast highs near the NBM for now, but there`s certainly potential that highs will come in lower than is currently forecast if precipitation is more widespread or heavier in intensity. KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures. Strong cold advection behind Thursday`s early morning arctic cold front will continue through the day and into Thursday night. Although yesterday morning`s models showed a decrease in wind speed late Thursday night, the new 00z models arriving now show this decrease in wind even more acutely. This should allow a radiational inversion to develop, especially inland, and we`ve accordingly pushed forecast lows down another couple of degrees. We`re now expecting lows in the upper teens with some lower 20s near the coast. This looks to be the second coldest arctic outbreak of the winter (so far) behind the December 15, 2025 event. In terms of public impact, lower forecast temperatures are being offset by lighter forecast winds. Forecast wind chill temperatures are still near the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather Advisory late Thursday night/Friday morning. Although model spread widens by the weekend, a second arctic cold front appears likely to arrive across the eastern Carolinas either Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will be followed by another shot of well below normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Calm winds in place at all terminals, which will continue for the next several hours. Light breeze at 5-7 kts out of the SSW builds in by 17-19Z this afternoon, decreasing slightly to 4-6 kts by sunset. Extended Outlook...VFR through perhaps midday Wednesday. Some restrictions are possible late Wednesday and Thursday. VFR returns Thursday night through Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NNW winds around 5 kts back to the southwest by late this afternoon, increasing towards 10 kts by sunset. Winds veer slightly to the WSW overnight tonight, increasing more to 10-15 kts. Seas remain at 1-2 ft. Wednesday through Saturday Night...Breezy southwest winds as strong as 20-25 knots Wednesday night will precede a strong arctic cold front that will push off the North and South Carolina coastline early Thursday morning. Northwest winds behind the front on Thursday into Thursday night should average 20 to perhaps 25 knots. There is a good chance a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the winds both ahead of and behind the cold front. High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast should lead to diminishing wind speeds Friday, however the high should push offshore Friday afternoon or evening with winds shifting southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots. Winds could increase further on Saturday when a second period of Small Craft Advisory conditions could occur ahead of the next front approaching from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1257062 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 13.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... In the near term, no major changes coming down the track as we approach 7 AM EST. Updated 12Z TAF discussion below. All other previous discussions still apply. Forecast lows Thursday night have been adjusted colder, but wind chills are little changed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather continues through tonight, with high temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal. 2) Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system moves overhead. 3) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through tonight, with high temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal. Some good radiational cooling has occurred just past midnight, as temperatures continue to dip towards the 20s. Some cirrus that is streaming in from the west has thickened up over the last hour or so, which I believe has already started to hinder the cooling. May need to back off on some of the hourly temperature forecasts as we head through the rest of this morning. Elsewhere, quiet forecast still in store through tonight. A shortwave moves through late this morning, but doesn`t really do much at all to change the sensible weather. Plenty of sunshine on the way, with highs creeping up into the upper 50s to near 60. This will solidly be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday, about a degree or two above normal for mid-January. Southwesterly flow starts building in tonight ahead of the next disturbance. This causes low temperatures to be considerably warmer than the last couple of nights, generally in the mid-to-upper 30s inland, lower 40s at the coast.here. KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system moves overhead. A southern stream shortwave will be pulled northeastward and across the Carolinas on Wednesday by a deep upper level trough developing across the Great Lakes. This shortwave will carry a slug of mid level moisture with it, visible on model 700 mb progs between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Isentropic analysis within the moisture-bearing layer shows only modest upglide, but still likely enough to produce light rain with less than 0.10 inches expected. Forecast PoPs have been tweaked higher to 40-50 percent along the coast centered on Wednesday afternoon. Very dry air between the mid level cloud base and the surface means there could be evaporational cooling as precipitation begins. I`ve kept Wednesday`s forecast highs near the NBM for now, but there`s certainly potential that highs will come in lower than is currently forecast if precipitation is more widespread or heavier in intensity. KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures. Strong cold advection behind Thursday`s early morning arctic cold front will continue through the day and into Thursday night. Although yesterday morning`s models showed a decrease in wind speed late Thursday night, the new 00z models arriving now show this decrease in wind even more acutely. This should allow a radiational inversion to develop, especially inland, and we`ve accordingly pushed forecast lows down another couple of degrees. We`re now expecting lows in the upper teens with some lower 20s near the coast. This looks to be the second coldest arctic outbreak of the winter (so far) behind the December 15, 2025 event. In terms of public impact, lower forecast temperatures are being offset by lighter forecast winds. Forecast wind chill temperatures are still near the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather Advisory late Thursday night/Friday morning. Although model spread widens by the weekend, a second arctic cold front appears likely to arrive across the eastern Carolinas either Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will be followed by another shot of well below normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Calm winds in place at all terminals, which will continue for the next several hours. Light breeze at 5-7 kts out of the SSW builds in by 17-19Z this afternoon, decreasing slightly to 4-6 kts by sunset. Extended Outlook...VFR through perhaps midday Wednesday. Some restrictions are possible late Wednesday and Thursday. VFR returns Thursday night through Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NNW winds around 5 kts back to the southwest by late this afternoon, increasing towards 10 kts by sunset. Winds veer slightly to the WSW overnight tonight, increasing more to 10-15 kts. Seas remain at 1-2 ft. Wednesday through Saturday Night...Breezy southwest winds as strong as 20-25 knots Wednesday night will precede a strong arctic cold front that will push off the North and South Carolina coastline early Thursday morning. Northwest winds behind the front on Thursday into Thursday night should average 20 to perhaps 25 knots. There is a good chance a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the winds both ahead of and behind the cold front. High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast should lead to diminishing wind speeds Friday, however the high should push offshore Friday afternoon or evening with winds shifting southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots. Winds could increase further on Saturday when a second period of Small Craft Advisory conditions could occur ahead of the next front approaching from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1257033 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 13.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1249 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast lows Thursday night have been adjusted colder, but wind chills are little changed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather continues through tonight, with high temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal. 2) Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system moves overhead. 3) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather continues through tonight, with high temperatures reaching up to a degree or two above normal. Some good radiational cooling has occurred just past midnight, as temperatures continue to dip towards the 20s. Some cirrus that is streaming in from the west has thickened up over the last hour or so, which I believe has already started to hinder the cooling. May need to back off on some of the hourly temperature forecasts as we head through the rest of this morning. Elsewhere, quiet forecast still in store through tonight. A shortwave moves through late this morning, but doesn`t really do much at all to change the sensible weather. Plenty of sunshine on the way, with highs creeping up into the upper 50s to near 60. This will solidly be 10-12 degrees warmer than yesterday, about a degree or two above normal for mid-January. Southwesterly flow starts building in tonight ahead of the next disturbance. This causes low temperatures to be considerably warmer than the last couple of nights, generally in the mid-to-upper 30s inland, lower 40s at the coast.here. KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain is possible Wednesday as an upper level system moves overhead. A southern stream shortwave will be pulled northeastward and across the Carolinas on Wednesday by a deep upper level trough developing across the Great Lakes. This shortwave will carry a slug of mid level moisture with it, visible on model 700 mb progs between 15z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Isentropic analysis within the moisture-bearing layer shows only modest upglide, but still likely enough to produce light rain with less than 0.10 inches expected. Forecast PoPs have been tweaked higher to 40-50 percent along the coast centered on Wednesday afternoon. Very dry air between the mid level cloud base and the surface means there could be evaporational cooling as precipitation begins. I`ve kept Wednesday`s forecast highs near the NBM for now, but there`s certainly potential that highs will come in lower than is currently forecast if precipitation is more widespread or heavier in intensity. KEY MESSAGE 3...A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures. Strong cold advection behind Thursday`s early morning arctic cold front will continue through the day and into Thursday night. Although yesterday morning`s models showed a decrease in wind speed late Thursday night, the new 00z models arriving now show this decrease in wind even more acutely. This should allow a radiational inversion to develop, especially inland, and we`ve accordingly pushed forecast lows down another couple of degrees. We`re now expecting lows in the upper teens with some lower 20s near the coast. This looks to be the second coldest arctic outbreak of the winter (so far) behind the December 15, 2025 event. In terms of public impact, lower forecast temperatures are being offset by lighter forecast winds. Forecast wind chill temperatures are still near the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather Advisory late Thursday night/Friday morning. Although model spread widens by the weekend, a second arctic cold front appears likely to arrive across the eastern Carolinas either Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will be followed by another shot of well below normal temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Calm winds already in place at all terminals, which will continue for the next several hours. Light breeze at 5-7 kts out of the SSW builds in by 17-19Z this afternoon, decreasing slightly to 4-6 kts by sunset. Extended Outlook...VFR through perhaps midday Wednesday. Some restrictions are possible late Wednesday and Thursday. VFR returns Thursday night through Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NNW winds around 5 kts back to the southwest by late this afternoon, increasing towards 10 kts by sunset. Winds veer slightly to the WSW overnight tonight, increasing more to 10-15 kts. Seas remain at 1-2 ft. Wednesday through Saturday Night...Breezy southwest winds as strong as 20-25 knots Wednesday night will precede a strong arctic cold front that will push off the North and South Carolina coastline early Thursday morning. Northwest winds behind the front on Thursday into Thursday night should average 20 to perhaps 25 knots. There is a good chance a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the winds both ahead of and behind the cold front. High pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast should lead to diminishing wind speeds Friday, however the high should push offshore Friday afternoon or evening with winds shifting southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots. Winds could increase further on Saturday when a second period of Small Craft Advisory conditions could occur ahead of the next front approaching from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
