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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1181048 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 PM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... High pressure nosing southeastward across the inland Carolinas is resulting in northeast flow and slightly below normal temps for today. Have adjusted the sky forecast to account for a swath of stratus across northeast SC this morning, which is in the process of scattering out as it makes its way to the southwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure oriented NW-SW across the NC Piedmont and upstate of SC will result in enhanced NE flow across the area the remainder of the day. The gradient will gradually weaken through the evening, and the high will shift eastward very slowly. Therefore winds will ease up overnight, however a NE or ENE trajectory will persist through the TAF period. Clouds will vary between broken and scattered through early evening before clearing out, but will remain VFR. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181030 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 912 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... High pressure nosing southeastward across the inland Carolinas is resulting in northeast flow and slightly below normal temps for today. Have adjusted the sky forecast to account for a swath of stratus across northeast SC this morning, which is in the process of scattering out as it makes its way to the southwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR for the 12Z TAF period, although some low clouds/fog are possible this morning, mainly through around daybreak, and again late tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1181012 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... No big changes with the latest update. Some low clouds/fog are expected west of Wilmington through around daybreak. However, another area of low clouds moving in from the northeast could impact the Wilmington area as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR for the 12Z TAF period, although some low clouds/fog are possible this morning, mainly through around daybreak, and again late tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period |
| #1180997 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 343 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into the area. This will bring unseasonably cool air into southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend. Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight, which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night. Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR to start the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period with high pressure in control, although some low-level moisture will be present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially at KILM around daybreak. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible starting Thu night. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight. Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7- 9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180973 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1244 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... No big changes with the latest update. Main near term concern is the threat for low clouds moving in from the northeast through around daybreak. Low-level winds should remain a bit too strong for much fog but can`t rule out some, mainly in sheltered rural locales. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening, mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday. Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs averaging in the mid/upr 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally VFR to start the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period with high pressure in control, although some low-level moisture will be present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially at KILM around daybreak. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue. Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than 10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180967 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 949 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until Friday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Cancelled the CFW for downtown Wilmington a little early as the river level dropped below 5.5ft. Cloud cover continues to break up and lift as somewhat drier air moves in from the northeast. Wind overnight will keep fog from being a concern. No major changes needed for evening update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening, mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday. Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs averaging in the mid/upr 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low stratus has been slowly lifting and dissipating the last few hours. This trend will continue and only MYR is reporting MVFR ceilings. MYR should rise to VFR within the next hour and VFR is expected at all sites overnight. There is low chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings developing around daybreak, given low level moisture, but the relatively short duration of night this time of year decreases the potential. There will be too much wind/mixing overnight for fog. Northeast winds continue Monday as high pressure builds down the coast with VFR conditions prevailing. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue. Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than 10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC....Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1180957 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 751 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain chances not returning until Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening, mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday. Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly sunny/clear. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs averaging in the mid/upr 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low stratus has been slowly lifting and dissipating the last few hours. This trend will continue and only MYR is reporting MVFR ceilings. MYR should rise to VFR within the next hour and VFR is expected at all sites overnight. There is low chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings developing around daybreak, given low level moisture, but the relatively short duration of night this time of year decreases the potential. There will be too much wind/mixing overnight for fog. Northeast winds continue Monday as high pressure builds down the coast with VFR conditions prevailing. Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or cig restrictions possible each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday. Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue. Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than 10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the remainder of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
