Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Subtropical dev pos this week well east of Florida. Eastern EPAC low heads towards Central America.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1284694 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 05.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 213 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1) Isolated strong thunderstorms Friday will give way to more seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong thunderstorms Friday will give way to more seasonable temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure well to our NE will be losing its weak grip on the area tomorrow, being shunted even further east by the approach of a healthy upper trough and surface cold front. Both should lead to deep layer ascent for pretty good rain chances, which given our continued long duration drought would be potential good news. But given the fairly fast eastward translation of the forced line of precipitation areas that do not deeply convection have fairly meager QPF potential. The severe risk is small but still hard to diagnose as instability will be tough to develop especially given the possible stream of showers/sprinkles streaming up the immediate coast in the morning not unlike the band at the time of this writing. RRFS has a very plausible looking scenario where moderate convection enters the western part of the CWA that intensifies half way across the CWA that then weakens considerably at the immediate coast. The RRFS only develops about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE but shows some mid level dry air supporting the wind threat. Deep layer shear is weak but hodographs show a tornadic signature in the lowest kilometer so an F0 spinup more likely than a meso-induced tornado. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Included TEMPO -SHRA for KILM given radar trends suggesting a few rounds of showers through around 20Z. Low chances for a brief -SHRA also at KFLO and KLBT but brief duration and limited coverage will not include mention at this time. SCT-V-BKN cloud cover for all terminals except KMYR/KCRE given the sea breeze has pushed inland there. Expect clouds to increase during the evening and overnight along with rainfall chances overnight into Friday. Better potential for VCTS at KFLO/KLBT tomorrow morning and persisting through 18Z as the cold front approaches from the west. Not anticipating any significant restrictions outside of any convection that develops. Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... High pressure well NE of the area will be pushed eastward tomorrow by a cold front and strong upper trough approaching from the west. S winds will veer slightly to the SW later in the day and then moreso to the NW by night, and eventually N by Saturday. Late in this veering will be about a one category increase in wind speed. Any increase in wave height will be overshadowed by a shortening of wave period from a marine impact standpoint out to 20nm. The offshore/20- 60 zones meanwhile should build into the 4-6 realm late Sat/Sat night. N to NW flow will last for the remainder of the period with a slow abating trend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284659 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 611 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Dense Fog Advisory has been put out for portions of SE NC through the early morning. Elsewhere, patchy dense fog is possible. Drive safely! Updated 12Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms. After a dry day today aside from some very spotty light showers well inland, a mid-level trough and sfc cold front will move in from the west on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center now highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) of severe storms Friday afternoon and early evening, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will increase through the day, but a lot is contingent on pockets of heating and destabilization to occur, and with much cloud cover expected early on, the threat appears rather low at this point. Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80% over most of the area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected on average. The front pushes offshore Friday night, giving way to dry weather over the weekend into at least early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Lowered VSBYs will plague terminals this morning again. Thoughts are that KLBT will see worst conditions. Have TEMPOs at other terminals, with clearing at the coast ~13Z and a bit longer for inland terminals ~14Z maybe even 15Z. VFR with south winds and some stratocu then expected through the rest of the day. Showers are expected to stay west of terminals closer to a stalled front. Restrictions expected again tonight, though there may be showers added into the mix, so a bit lower confidence. Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week. A cold front crosses the waters Friday night, but post-frontal CAA is fairly weak so only expecting gusts up to 15-20 kt into the day Saturday. Even weaker winds for early next week as sfc high pressure builds directly into the area from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096- 099. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284647 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 153 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms. After a dry day today aside from some very spotty light showers well inland, a mid-level trough and sfc cold front will move in from the west on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center now highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) of severe storms Friday afternoon and early evening, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will increase through the day, but a lot is contingent on pockets of heating and destabilization to occur, and with much cloud cover expected early on, the threat appears rather low at this point. Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80% over most of the area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected on average. The front pushes offshore Friday night, giving way to dry weather over the weekend into at least early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR to start of the 06Z TAF period aside from KILM where shallow dense ground fog has developed this past hour. Moist low-levels and decreasing winds will allow for moderate confidence in another round of LIFR to VLIFR fog and low cigs this morning, handled mainly by TEMPO groups. One factor that may limit the duration and magnitude of impacts is ongoing cirrus from an approaching front and patches of marine stratocumulus moving onshore. Nevertheless, given higher dewpoints than last night and mostly thin high cirrus are passing overhead, confidence is high enough to include fog and low stratus at all terminals. With SE winds picking up in the morning, fog and low stratus should exit the coast by around 13Z while restrictions linger inland until mid morning. After morning restrictions burn off, mainly VFR can be expected, although the initial cumulus field that develops around midday into the early afternoon can result in transient MVFR cigs. Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times from late tonight through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week. A cold front crosses the waters Friday night, but post-frontal CAA is fairly weak so only expecting gusts up to 15-20 kt into the day Saturday. Even weaker winds for early next week as sfc high pressure builds directly into the area from the west. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
