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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, NC (Wilmington, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1237796 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 12.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 652 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fairly typical summertime weather expected across the eastern Carolinas this week. && .UPDATE... Some fog showing up here and there inland but the worst of it looks to be in the traditionally colder spots in and around Holly Shelter and the northern border of Pender County. Have added areas of fog to the forecast there. Otherwise, there are some hints at less coverage of showers/storms this afternoon, so I`ve adjusted POPs downwards slightly. Updated 12Z aviation below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will be centered to our west with a ridge aloft. Low pressure will move offshore to the NE with what looks like a weak front or trough extending down from the system, paired with an axis of drier air. This disturbance looks to stay offshore, but the drier mid-level air will filter in over SE NC areas. We`ll remain moist in the low-levels, so hard to say if this will impact shower/storm coverage for SE NC, but wouldn`t be surprised if coverage is suppressed somewhat this afternoon. The low clouds that plagued the area through much of the day yesterday should not be around so we should destabilize fairly well, soundings showing 2-3k of CAPE. Highs will rise into the lower to mid 90s, and a couple areas could near heat indices of 105F briefly in the afternoon, particularly away from the coast. Due to the brevity of this and the increasing rain coverage in the afternoon, have elected not to raise a Heat Advisory. Thoughts on the rain is that we`ll have the typical set up along the sea breeze in the afternoon, scattered showers and storms that progress inland. There could be an isolated threat for strong to possibly damaging wind gusts with the pop up storms headed more into the evening hours, primarily for NE SC at this time. Activity should gradually diminish towards midnight where the overnight hours should be dry away from the coast as some isolated activity could move onshore. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm/flash flood risk *Near to above normal high temps and above normal low temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Pretty weak pressure pattern expected with not much in the way of significant weather features to speak of. Thus, generally expect a typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms. The severe storm risk is very low, mainly isolated damaging wind gusts due to boundary collisions where updrafts can be enhanced. Probably a slightly greater threat is flash flooding from heavy rainfall, mainly where storms move over the same areas. High temps should generally be near to above normal with lows staying above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm/flash flood risk *Near to above normal temps Confidence: *Moderate Details: Expect a mainly typical summertime pattern with mostly afternoon/evening showers/storms. Weak troughing, maybe even a weak low, should linger over or near the area early in the period with more typical Atlantic high pressure likely returning later in the week. No significant severe/flash flood risk is anticipated. Temps should be near to above normal, likely warmest late in the week. Heat indices should stay below Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees) for the most part. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR through the 12Z TAF period outside of restrictions in showers and storms this afternoon. The best chances for greater coverage remains inland/SC, and some isolated stronger storms could impact NE SC. Rain should be coming to an end away from the immediate coast towards the end of the period. Confidence is increasing on fog tonight. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Light W winds will become more SW with the sea breeze this afternoon, remaining below 15 kts. Seas generally 2-3 ft with a light SW wind wave and a SE 2-3 ft swell at 7-8 seconds. Scattered showers and storms will be possible over the waters this afternoon through this evening, with coverage decreasing tonight. Sunday through Wednesday...Weak pressure pattern should prevail with sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Seas mainly 2 ft or less into early Tue, then building to 3 to 4 ft Wed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1237781 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 12.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 156 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fairly typical summertime weather expected across the eastern Carolinas this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will be centered to our west with a ridge aloft. Low pressure will move offshore to the NE with what looks like a weak front or trough extending down from the system, paired with an axis of drier air. This disturbance looks to stay offshore, but the drier mid-level air will filter in over SE NC areas. We`ll remain moist in the low-levels, so hard to say if this will impact shower/storm coverage for SE NC, but wouldn`t be surprised if coverage is suppressed somewhat this afternoon. The low clouds that plagued the area through much of the day yesterday should not be around so we should destabilize fairly well, soundings showing 2-3k of CAPE. Highs will rise into the lower to mid 90s, and a couple areas could near heat indices of 105F briefly in the afternoon, particularly away from the coast. Due to the brevity of this and the increasing rain coverage in the afternoon, have elected not to raise a Heat Advisory. Thoughts on the rain is that we`ll have the typical set up along the sea breeze in the afternoon, scattered showers and storms that progress inland. There could be an isolated threat for strong to possibly damaging wind gusts with the pop up storms headed more into the evening hours, primarily for NE SC at this time. Activity should gradually diminish towards midnight where the overnight hours should be dry away from the coast as some isolated activity could move onshore. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm/flash flood risk *Near to above normal high temps and above normal low temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Pretty weak pressure pattern expected with not much in the way of significant weather features to speak of. Thus, generally expect a typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms. The severe storm risk is very low, mainly isolated damaging wind gusts due to boundary collisions where updrafts can be enhanced. Probably a slightly greater threat is flash flooding from heavy rainfall, mainly where storms move over the same areas. High temps should generally be near to above normal with lows staying above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm/flash flood risk *Near to above normal temps Confidence: *Moderate Details: Expect a mainly typical summertime pattern with mostly afternoon/evening showers/storms. Weak troughing, maybe even a weak low, should linger over or near the area early in the period with more typical Atlantic high pressure likely returning later in the week. No significant severe/flash flood risk is anticipated. Temps should be near to above normal, likely warmest late in the week. Heat indices should stay below Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees) for the most part. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR expected through the rest of the nighttime hours. Cloud cover tonight should be few/scattered at best ~3-4 kft. Have added patchy fog inland but impacts to the terminals should be brief if any and MVFR at worst. Any restrictions will clear come 12Z Saturday where we`ll deal with pop up storms in the afternoon and evening. The best chances for greater coverage remains inland/SC, and some isolated stronger storms could impact NE SC. Rain should be coming to an end away from the immediate coast towards the end of the period. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Light W winds will become more SW with the sea breeze this afternoon, remaining below 15 kts. Seas generally 2-3 ft with a light SW wind wave and a SE 2-3 ft swell at 7-8 seconds. Scattered showers and storms will be possible over the waters this afternoon through this evening, with coverage decreasing tonight. Sunday through Wednesday...Weak pressure pattern should prevail with sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Seas mainly 2 ft or less into early Tue, then building to 3 to 4 ft Wed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
