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| #1284158 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 721 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns River and ICWW. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Breezy Gusts at the Beaches Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 inches for Northeast FL && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front. As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the front will shift southward to the Jacksonville vicinity and the I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph inland. With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA. All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour and along with gloomy cloud cover will make for dreadfully damp conditions overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler over the interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more humidity and northeast flow providing for upper 60s along I-10 of NE FL and the lows along the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is expected. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun- Mon Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7- 2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I- 95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns next week. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing a relief to local coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Low stratus and vicinity showers will continue to impact SSI and the three Duval sites this evening. Gusts will begin to settle over the next hour or so, with winds of 5-10 knots overnight. Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area with easterly winds becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots by mid-morning. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure ridging will wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week, bringing hazardous boating conditions. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east- northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds, overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 76 63 79 / 10 20 20 20 SSI 65 76 65 75 / 40 30 50 60 JAX 67 78 66 77 / 30 60 60 60 SGJ 71 78 68 76 / 10 40 60 70 GNV 69 80 66 81 / 20 30 50 50 OCF 70 80 67 81 / 20 30 40 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125- 132-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ138-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284135 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 219 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns River in NE FL - Atlantic Coast and ICWW Today. High Risk for Rip Currents with High Surf at the beach south of St Augustine into Flagler Beach. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Breezy Gusts at the Beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues within the St Johns River basin - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front. As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the front will shift southward to the Jacksonville visitant and the I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph inland. The elevated onshore flow will make for dangerous rip currents at the beaches that will be dangerous for swimmers through this evening and overnight With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA. All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour along with gloomy cloud cover overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler over the interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more humidity and northeast flow providing for upper 60s along I-10 of NE FL and the lows along the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun- Mon Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7- 2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I- 95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns next week. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing relief to the coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... The 18Z TAF period will begin with showers intermittent at SSI with prevailing VFR ceilings scattered 2.5-3.5 kft and broken mid to high level clouds overhead. Winds are increasing to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at JAX and SSI and will spread to CRG and SGJ over the next hour or so while inland sites increase to 12-14 knots inland gusting between 20-25 knots this afternoon. Showers will be scattered in coverage near the Duval county Terminals and along the NE FL coast while chances too low near GNV through tonight. Overcast high level clouds will lower to overcast mid level clouds this evening. Keeping only VCSH at SSI this evening after 00Z as the front weakens as it sinks into Northeast FL. However, inverted troughing developing over the waters will redevelop showers late tonight and have included a PROB30 group after 06Z for MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions from coastal showers moving onshore. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Low stratus developing inland should mainly stay west of the TAF sites. Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area a disturbance aloft arrives from the west with easterly winds becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east- northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds, overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 76 63 79 / 10 20 20 20 SSI 65 76 65 75 / 40 30 50 60 JAX 67 78 66 77 / 30 60 60 60 SGJ 71 78 68 76 / 10 40 60 70 GNV 69 80 66 81 / 20 30 50 50 OCF 70 80 67 81 / 20 30 40 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125- 132-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137. High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ138-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284120 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1015 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues south of Shands Bridge through. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Strong Gusts at the beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for Northeast FL at. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL && .UPDATE... Scattered to broken low ceilings inland will lift through the next hour with increasing mid and high level clouds today. Light showers are currently moving onshore around Brunswick/St Simons Island this morning near and south of a cold frontal boundary pressing south ward into SE GA. Northeast winds remain 10-15 mph and 5-10 mph inland. However, high pressure building southward from the north will serve to tighten the local pressure gradient and increase winds to breezy levels 10-20 mph this afternoon inland gusting to 25-30 mph and about 15-25 mph along the coast with gusts to 30 to 35 mph. The increasing northeast to east northeasterly winds, increasing moisture (above 75th percentile for Oct 31st), and lift from the front will create some coastal convergent showers, mainly scattered moving onshore from the Atlantic waters onto the SE GA coast and shifting southward to the Jacksonville and I-10 vicinity by the early afternoon hours as winds increase, through a few light showers may alos drift onto the rest of the NE FL coast to Flagler beach as well. Rainfall amounts will be light with a tenth to quarter inch localized amounts, especially nearer the coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA. Skies will be mostly cloudy from increasing mid and high level clouds, limiting highs despite higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 over NE FL and mid to upper 60s over SE GA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina will continue making a southern push into the area through this morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning, taking advantange of better lift and moisture ahead of the front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10 corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast FL. Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near Putnam County. Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east, after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue. - Marginal Risk of Flooding due to Excessive Rainfall Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower, compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers. Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave of low pressure. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Moist, local nor`easter will relent during the first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely. Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... The 12Z period will start with restrictions for IFR ceilings at CRG/JAX/VQQ/GNV generally between 0.5-1.0 kft through 14Z with scattered ceilings ranging from 3.0 kft near SGJ and may lower to 1.5 kft at SSI as showers approach from the southeast. A front moving southward to the area and increasing moisture will bring some better potential for showers at the SSI terminals during the afternoon hours, so have placed a PROB30 group for MVFR ceilings and visibilities after 18Z until 00Z. Otherwise, confidence in placement of showers is less, so have VCSH for all sites this afternoon, with a lull after 00Z. WInds will increase today as high pressure wedges down the southeast coast behind the front moving in from the north and pinching the local pressure gradient. Winds will rise to the about 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at SGJ/SSI/CRG/JAX with 12-15 knots inland gusting to 20-25 knots this afternoon. Have increasing mid level clouds tonight with VCSH noted at Duval county and SSI terminals as the front weakens as it moves into Northeast FL. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Will ascertain if lower ceilings appear more likely late tonight with subsequent forecast, but for now confidence is too low for mention. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95 corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid conditions continue. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 64 76 62 / 10 10 30 40 SSI 76 66 74 63 / 40 40 40 60 JAX 79 67 77 64 / 50 30 60 60 SGJ 79 71 77 67 / 10 10 60 70 GNV 83 69 79 65 / 10 20 50 60 OCF 84 70 80 66 / 10 20 50 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284117 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 812 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues south of Shands Bridge through. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Strong Gusts at the beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for Northeast FL at. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina will continue making a southern push into the area through this morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning, taking advantange of better lift and moisture ahead of the front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10 corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast FL. Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near Putnam County. Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east, after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue. - Marginal Risk of Flooding due to Excessive Rainfall Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower, compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers. Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave of low pressure. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Moist, local nor`easter will relent during the first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely. Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... The 12Z period will start with restrictions for IFR ceilings at CRG/JAX/VQQ/GNV generally between 0.5-1.0 kft through 14Z with scattered ceilings ranging from 3.0 kft near SGJ and may lower to 1.5 kft at SSI as a front sinks southward and showers approach from the east through 15Z there. A front moving southward to the area and increasing moisture will bring some potential for showers at the SSI terminals during the afternoon hours, so have placed a PROB30 group for MVFR ceilings and visibilities after 18Z until 00Z. Otherwise, the confidence in placement of showers is less, so have VCSH for all sites this afternoon, with a lull after 00Z. Winds will increase today as high pressure wedges down the southeast coast behind the front moving in from the north and pinching the local pressure gradient. Winds will rise to the about 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at SGJ/SSI/CRG/JAX with 12-15 knots inland gusting to 20-25 knots this afternoon. Have increasing mid level clouds tonight with VCSH noted at Duval county and SSI terminals as the front weakens as it moves into Northeast FL. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Will ascertain if lower ceilings appear more likely late tonight with subsequent forecast, but for now confidence is too low for mention. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95 corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid conditions continue. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 63 76 62 / 10 10 30 40 SSI 76 64 74 63 / 40 40 40 60 JAX 79 66 77 64 / 40 30 60 60 SGJ 79 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 70 GNV 83 69 79 65 / 10 20 50 60 OCF 84 70 80 66 / 20 40 50 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284086 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 224 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend, includes: Coastal Flood Warning for localized Moderate Flooding along the middle St. Johns River and a Coastal Flood Advisory along the Atlantic Coast and lower St Johns River. - High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all Area Beaches through Sunday. - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flooding Possible Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening, especially along the coast where focused rain bands may develop. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina will continue making a southern push into the area through this morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning, taking advantage of better lift and moisture ahead of the front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10 corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast FL. Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near Putnam County. Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east, after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue. - Heavy rain and localized flooding possible, especially along the coast Sunday night into Monday Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower, compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers. Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave of low pressure. Damp and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Moist, local nor`easter conditions being to relent during the first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely. Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... MVFR and IFR ceilings remain stubborn across the region early this morning. This trend is expected to continue through the morning hours except at SSI. Ceilings are expected to improve late morning and into the afternoon as winds also pick up with another surge of northeasterly winds. The good news is VFR is expected to prevail at this time later today and through this evening while this surge occurs. The other main factor through tonight and the rest of today will be SHRA potential, especially with a weakening front dropping southward today. At this time, only confident enough to include VCSH with the coverage expected, though TEMPO groups may be necessary for higher impacts overnight and through today, especially closer to the coast. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95 corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid conditions continue. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 63 76 61 / 10 10 20 40 SSI 76 65 74 63 / 50 40 50 50 JAX 79 66 76 63 / 40 30 50 60 SGJ 79 70 77 66 / 30 30 50 70 GNV 83 69 79 65 / 10 20 50 50 OCF 84 70 80 66 / 10 20 50 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
