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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1205907 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 31.Oct.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 219 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through Tonight, with ridging extending southwest across region. A few afternoon and evening sprinkles will be possible at the coast. Patchy inland fog may develop toward dawn. Lows ranging from the lower 60s inland to the mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 The mid level ridge persisting from the Gulf of Mexico, across FL and the into the Atlantic to Bermuda is expected to slowly build during this period and shift slightly northward. This is in response is one shortwave moving off the northeast U.S. coast and mid/upper trough digging in across the Rockies. East to southeast low level flow (roughly in the 1000-850 mb layer) persists on Friday and becomes more east to east-northeast on Saturday. Mid levels remain dry with subsidence remaining in place, but low levels remain relatively moist to support a few sprinkles and a few showers at times, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area and over the marine waters. Temps will remain warmer than normal with highs in the mid 80s well inland and lower 80s toward the coast. Min temps in the 60s, warmest readings for the coastal areas. Patchy fog will again be possible in the early morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Model guidance remains in pretty good agreement showing mid level high pressure becoming centered over the area from Sunday through Tuesday morning, as the southwestern U.S. trough shifts eastward and then northeast toward the Great Lakes. Sfc high pressure around 1030 mb over the northeastern U.S. moves southeast as a cold frontal boundary moves into the Great Lakes and MS valley, loosing it`s steam with southward extent as the trough lifts out. This pattern will continue to result in the persistent east to southeast low level flow and continue a small chance for a few showers. By Wed and Thu, the general theme from the guidance, though solutions do diverge, is increased moisture and a weakening frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. Some uncertainty in regards to potential tropical development across the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. However, the NHC places a 60 percent of development over the next 7 days in the southwest Caribbean per the latest tropical weather outlook. The ECMWF is similar to its prior run with a low staying pretty far south of us, while the new GFS brings a strong influx of moisture from the Atlantic Wed night while any potential parent low in the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, this is a low confidence forecast mainly in the Wed to Thu time frame. Temps will remain warm and above average. Forecast continues to suggest near record highs Mon through Wed for Alma GA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR conditions to prevail for much of this period. The exception will be a period of restrictions in fog at KVQQ and KGNV for a few hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through Friday, then weaken Friday night. A weak cold front will move southeast across area Saturday. High pressure will build to the north Sunday, then northeast early in the week. A trough is expected to develop south of the local waters later this weekend through early next week. Rip Currents: SE GA: High Today, Moderate Friday NE FL: High through Friday && .CLIMATE... Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Record High Temperatures: November 4: KJAX: 87/2003 KCRG: 88/1992 KAMG: 86/2003 KGNV: 90/1936 November 5: KJAX: 87/2003 KCRG: 86/2003 KAMG: 86/9999 KGNV: 90/1935 November 6: KJAX: 88/2018 KCRG: 87/2018 KAMG: 85/2015 KGNV: 89/1935 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 84 61 84 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 67 82 67 79 / 20 20 20 20 JAX 65 83 65 82 / 10 10 20 20 SGJ 68 82 69 82 / 20 20 20 20 GNV 63 85 64 84 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 63 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-137. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1205893 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 PM 31.Oct.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will be centered to the northeast Today, with ridging extending southwest across the area. Weak troughing will pass through the onshore flow pattern, leading to the chance for a few sprinkles at the coast. Otherwise a dry afternoon and evening is forecast. Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 An elongated surface ridge will stretch into from the Carolina coast into the western Atlantic and be supported by a upper ridge. Despite subsidence under the influence of the upper ridge, sufficient moisture trapped in the lowest levels and convergence along weak inverted troughing will support low-end shower chances, mainly over the coastal waters. An easterly steering flow will likely push isolated showers/sprinkles onshore each day. Diurnal temperature ranges aren`t going to fluctuate under the prolonged easterly flow, the may vary a degree or two each day. Highs near the coast will be in the low 80s while mid 80s will be more common inland. The warm onshore flow will keep the coast in the upper 60s to low 70s each night, while inland areas will be cooler and read in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Little change in the guidance over the last 24 hours regarding the local sensible weather late this weekend into next week, with low- topped coastal showers developing beneath the upper ridge consolidating nearly overhead through Monday. Flow will trend southeasterly early next week as high pressure shifts off to the northeast and a weak front approaches from the northwest. This will allow some warming in temperatures and afternoon highs in inland locations may flirt with daily records. Uncertainty still looms next week regarding the potential development of a tropical system in the Caribbean. Tremendous spread (as expected at this time) exists among the available medium-range guidance regarding the potential tropical disturbance motion but there is a loose consensus in a northwesterly motion. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR conditions to prevail for much of this period. The exception will be a period of restrictions in fog at KVQQ and KGNV for a few hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida through Thursday and for the offshore waters through at least Thursday night. Otherwise, a frontal boundary will stall to the north of our region this weekend, with another strong high pressure center will build eastward across the Great Lakes region this weekend, with this feature then slowly moving offshore of coastal New England early next week. This feature will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in another period of breezy onshore winds and elevated seas early next week. Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf at the NE FL and SE GA beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 84 61 84 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 67 82 67 79 / 20 20 20 20 JAX 65 83 65 82 / 10 10 20 20 SGJ 68 82 69 82 / 20 20 20 20 GNV 63 85 64 84 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 63 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-137. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1205882 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 938 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 937 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will be centered to the northeast Today, with ridging extending southwest across the area. Weak troughing will pass through the onshore flow pattern, leading to the chance for a few sprinkles at the coast. Otherwise a dry afternoon and evening is forecast. Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 An elongated surface ridge will stretch into from the Carolina coast into the western Atlantic and be supported by a upper ridge. Despite subsidence under the influence of the upper ridge, sufficient moisture trapped in the lowest levels and convergence along weak inverted troughing will support low-end shower chances, mainly over the coastal waters. An easterly steering flow will likely push isolated showers/sprinkles onshore each day. Diurnal temperature ranges aren`t going to fluctuate under the prolonged easterly flow, the may vary a degree or two each day. Highs near the coast will be in the low 80s while mid 80s will be more common inland. The warm onshore flow will keep the coast in the upper 60s to low 70s each night, while inland areas will be cooler and read in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Little change in the guidance over the last 24 hours regarding the local sensible weather late this weekend into next week, with low- topped coastal showers developing beneath the upper ridge consolidating nearly overhead through Monday. Flow will trend southeasterly early next week as high pressure shifts off to the northeast and a weak front approaches from the northwest. This will allow some warming in temperatures and afternoon highs in inland locations may flirt with daily records. Uncertainty still looms next week regarding the potential development of a tropical system in the Caribbean. Tremendous spread (as expected at this time) exists among the available medium-range guidance regarding the potential tropical disturbance motion but there is a loose consensus in a northwesterly motion. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR conditions expected at all the TAF sites after low visibility at VQQ clears up around 14-15Z this morning. Gusty easterly winds and a few coastal light showers are forecast for the daytime. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida through Thursday and for the offshore waters through at least Thursday night. Otherwise, a frontal boundary will stall to the north of our region this weekend, with another strong high pressure center will build eastward across the Great Lakes region this weekend, with this feature then slowly moving offshore of coastal New England early next week. This feature will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in another period of breezy onshore winds and elevated seas early next week. Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf at the NE FL and SE GA beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 80 67 82 67 / 10 20 20 20 JAX 83 65 83 65 / 0 10 10 20 SGJ 81 68 82 69 / 10 20 20 20 GNV 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 83 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-137. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1205865 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 627 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Onshore flow continues today, with isolated showers expected to move along the coast this afternoon. Temperatures will be warm today, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, and near 80 along the immediate coast. As the witching hour approaches, and ghosts and goblins prepare to roam the streets, let`s dive into the forecast for this hauntingly delightful evening! Temperatures will be spookily-warm during peak trick-or-treating hours this evening, with temperatures staying above 80 degrees through about 7pm. Trick-or- treaters near the Atlantic coast may need to dodge a few ghostly raindrops while collecting candy, but overall conditions will be dry. As the sun sets, temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to 70s and winds screech to a halt, so it will be pleasant even for the skeletons! Late in the night, mysterious fog will roll in across inland southeast Georgia, leaving an eerie embrace of the ground. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 An elongated surface ridge will stretch into from the Carolina coast into the western Atlantic and be supported by a upper ridge. Despite subsidence under the influence of the upper ridge, sufficient moisture trapped in the lowest levels and convergence along weak inverted troughing will support low-end shower chances, mainly over the coastal waters. An easterly steering flow will likely push isolated showers/sprinkles onshore each day. Diurnal temperature ranges aren`t going to fluctuate under the prolonged easterly flow, the may vary a degree or two each day. Highs near the coast will be in the low 80s while mid 80s will be more common inland. The warm onshore flow will keep the coast in the upper 60s to low 70s each night, while inland areas will be cooler and read in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Little change in the guidance over the last 24 hours regarding the local sensible weather late this weekend into next week, with low- topped coastal showers developing beneath the upper ridge consolidating nearly overhead through Monday. Flow will trend southeasterly early next week as high pressure shifts off to the northeast and a weak front approaches from the northwest. This will allow some warming in temperatures and afternoon highs in inland locations may flirt with daily records. Uncertainty still looms next week regarding the potential development of a tropical system in the Caribbean. Tremendous spread (as expected at this time) exists among the available medium-range guidance regarding the potential tropical disturbance motion but there is a loose consensus in a northwesterly motion. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR conditions expected at all the TAF sites after low visibility at VQQ clears up around 14-15Z this morning. Gusty easterly winds and a few coastal light showers are forecast for the daytime. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida through Thursday and for the offshore waters through at least Thursday night. Otherwise, a frontal boundary will stall to the north of our region this weekend, with another strong high pressure center will build eastward across the Great Lakes region this weekend, with this feature then slowly moving offshore of coastal New England early next week. This feature will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in another period of breezy onshore winds and elevated seas early next week. Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf at the NE FL and SE GA beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 80 67 82 67 / 20 0 20 20 JAX 83 65 83 65 / 10 0 10 20 SGJ 81 68 82 69 / 20 0 20 20 GNV 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 83 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-137. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1205842 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Onshore flow continues today, with isolated showers expected to move along the coast this afternoon. Temperatures will be warm today, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, and near 80 along the immediate coast. As the witching hour approaches, and ghosts and goblins prepare to roam the streets, let`s dive into the forecast for this hauntingly delightful evening! Temperatures will be spookily-warm during peak trick-or-treating hours this evening, with temperatures staying above 80 degrees through about 7pm. Trick-or- treaters near the Atlantic coast may need to dodge a few ghostly raindrops while collecting candy, but overall conditions will be dry. As the sun sets, temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to 70s and winds screech to a halt, so it will be pleasant even for the skeletons! Late in the night, mysterious fog will roll in across inland southeast Georgia, leaving an eerie embrace of the ground. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 An elongated surface ridge will stretch into from the Carolina coast into the western Atlantic and be supported by a upper ridge. Despite subsidence under the influence of the upper ridge, sufficient moisture trapped in the lowest levels and convergence along weak inverted troughing will support low-end shower chances, mainly over the coastal waters. An easterly steering flow will likely push isolated showers/sprinkles onshore each day. Diurnal temperature ranges aren`t going to fluctuate under the prolonged easterly flow, the may vary a degree or two each day. Highs near the coast will be in the low 80s while mid 80s will be more common inland. The warm onshore flow will keep the coast in the upper 60s to low 70s each night, while inland areas will be cooler and read in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Little change in the guidance over the last 24 hours regarding the local sensible weather late this weekend into next week, with low- topped coastal showers developing beneath the upper ridge consolidating nearly overhead through Monday. Flow will trend southeasterly early next week as high pressure shifts off to the northeast and a weak front approaches from the northwest. This will allow some warming in temperatures and afternoon highs in inland locations may flirt with daily records. Uncertainty still looms next week regarding the potential development of a tropical system in the Caribbean. Tremendous spread (as expected at this time) exists among the available medium-range guidance regarding the potential tropical disturbance motion but there is a loose consensus in a northwesterly motion. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites other than VQQ this morning which will see a drop in visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Gusty easterly winds and a few coastal showers forecast for the daytime. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida through Thursday and for the offshore waters through at least Thursday night. Otherwise, a frontal boundary will stall to the north of our region this weekend, with another strong high pressure center will build eastward across the Great Lakes region this weekend, with this feature then slowly moving offshore of coastal New England early next week. This feature will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in another period of breezy onshore winds and elevated seas early next week. Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf at the NE FL and SE GA beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 80 67 82 67 / 20 0 20 20 JAX 83 65 83 65 / 10 0 10 20 SGJ 81 68 82 69 / 20 0 20 20 GNV 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 83 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-137. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1205829 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Strong high pressure (1030 millibars) centered near the North Carolina Outer Banks will maintain onshore flow overnight and Thursday morning. Meanwhile, weak coastal troughing situated over our local Atlantic waters will occasionally generate isolated showers, with only a few of these showers occasionally moving onshore through early Thursday morning. Otherwise, fair skies and gradually decoupling winds at inland locations will promote patchy to areas of fog formation during the predawn and early morning hours, mainly for inland southeast GA and perhaps western portions of the Suwannee Valley. Lows at inland locations will mostly fall to the lower 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Models show mid level ridge located from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northeast to off the NC coast on Thursday. The ridge will shift a bit southward through Friday as a mid level shortwave passes well to our north. Sfc ridge will be over the Carolinas and offshore into the Atlantic on Thursday, and by Friday a weak front will move into the Carolinas shoving the sfc ridge further east. The mid level ridge will continue to dominate the area aloft keeping the mid levels dry and stable. Forecast soundings show subsidence inversion and low level moisture continuing over the area with sfc flow becoming a bit weaker. Given the depth of the moisture, mean low level (1000-850mb) RH values of about 70-80 percent, and some low level coastal convergence, some slight chances (about 10-20 percent) for showers remain for the coastal counties and the coastal waters. Max and min temps will run just above normal this period with 80s for highs and lows in the 60s. Patchy late night/early morning fog expected inland locations Thu, Fri and Sat. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The forecast thinking through the period has not changed much. A weak front will dissipate across the Carolinas this weekend, while sfc high pressure to the north of the front re-invigorates the easterly flow for the region. The center of the 1030 mb high pressure will move off the U.S. east coast around NJ/NY area Sunday night. Another weaker high will be around the Carolinas Mon and Tue. Will likely be some weak sfc coastal troughing and some periods of enhanced moisture coming off the Atlantic to support a small chance of showers of about 10-20 percent and so most areas will remain dry. Have attempted to increase POPs for the coastal waters/zones above the NBM guidance. Additional adjustments upward may be needed for POPS as confidence increases. As far as temps, max temps may warm up gradually and be close to record highs for Alma GA but other records appear to be out of range based on current forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites other than VQQ this morning which will see a drop in visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Gusty easterly winds and a few coastal showers forecast for the daytime. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Strong high pressure centered near the North Carolina Outer Banks will shift eastward while gradually weakening through Friday. Meanwhile, weak coastal troughing situated over our local waters will generate occasional light showers through Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida through Thursday and for the offshore waters through at least Thursday night. Seas of 6-8 feet will prevail offshore through Thursday, with seas near shore of 5-7 feet for the northeast FL waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution if venturing into the near shore waters adjacent to southeast GA, where seas of 4-6 feet will prevail through Thursday. Seas are expected to fall back to Caution levels for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL by Thursday night, while seas offshore remain in Small Craft Advisory criteria through Thursday night before falling back to Caution levels on Friday. A frontal boundary will stall to the north of our region this weekend, with another strong high pressure center will build eastward across the Great Lakes region this weekend, with this feature then slowly moving offshore of coastal New England early next week. This feature will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in another period of breezy onshore winds and elevated seas early next week. Rip Currents: Rough surf, featuring breakers of 4-6 feet for the northeast FL beaches and 3-5 foot breakers for the southeast GA beaches, will continue through at least Thursday, creating a high rip current risk at all area beaches. This high risk may continue into Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Drainage from the headwaters in central Florida combined with trapped tides and the approaching new moon will lead to action to minor coastal flooding at times of high tide within the St Johns River basin and its tributaries systems through Thursday, possibly longer. The coastal flood advisory continues from the from Putnam/Flagler to around downtown Jacksonville. At high tide, peak river stages (in feet above Mean Higher High Water - MHHW) are expected to range from about 1.5 to 1.8 feet with the higher-end of that range focused from Palatka south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 60 84 61 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 81 66 81 67 / 20 30 20 10 JAX 84 62 83 65 / 20 20 20 10 SGJ 82 68 82 69 / 20 20 20 20 GNV 84 61 85 64 / 10 10 10 0 OCF 85 62 86 65 / 10 10 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ033-038-132-137-325. High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
