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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1256580 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 120 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Dense Fog Advisory this morning for NE FL and SE GA. Widespread Dense fog with 1/4 mile or less visibilities can be expected. Dense fog potential again Tonight. - Near Record Warmth Forecast on Friday and Saturday - Inland Light Freeze Possible Late Sunday Night. Inland Frost Possible Late Monday night - Small Craft Advisories Likely Sunday Evening Through Early Monday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A zonal flow pattern aloft today will evolve to increased ridging by tonight as a storm system develops over the central U.S. and heads northeastward. At the surface, a weak, mostly dry frontal boundary/trough extends over the western Atlantic and into eastern GA, just north of the area and will lift north today. The ridge of high pressure over the FL peninsula will lift northward into the forecast area today into tonight which will foster a weak low level flow from the southeast and south. For the morning hours, areas to widespread dense fog will eventually materialize given the 50s and lower 60s dewpoints and the light winds. One hindrance to dense fog will be some stratocumulus clouds in the area. Once the fog and stratus break up and dissipate by mid morning, partly cloudy skies expected with temps warming into the 70s to around 80. Have nudged max temps to just above the NBM guidance given a slight cool bias noted recently. Tonight, patchy fog will likely be already progressing along the coastal areas/ adjacent nearshore waters. Areas of sea fog area are then forecast to slowly advance inland by late evening and overnight. Fog will also develop well inland zones given the light wind flow and sufficient low level RH so we will see another round of low stratus and dense fog, with dense fog advisories possibly needed for land and nearshore marine zones. Lows will be mild again around the 55-60 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to move away to the northeast through Saturday morning. A cold front will move southeast toward the area Saturday afternoon. The cold front will move through Saturday night. With this timing, expect most of the day Saturday to be dry, except for a few showers reaching inland SE GA late in the day. Temperatures will be well above normal this period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper wave will follow the front on Sunday, leading to continued shower chances through the day. High pressure will build to the northwest Sunday night and Monday, as cold advection takes place. The high pressure ridge will settle overhead Tuesday, then weaken Wednesday as an upper trough moves through. Shower chances possible with this upper trough. Temperatures will be near to a little above average Sunday, then below for this rest of this period. A light freeze will be possible over inland SE GA Sunday night, but too much wind for much if any frost development. On Monday night, temperatures will be a little cooler, with winds light enough for Frost. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Rest of tonight, LIFR and IFR will be developing with low cigs and fog. Initial restrictions at 06z will be at VQQ, SSI, and GNV, and then develop at remainder TAFs by 10z. Appears fog will lift into IFR/LIFR stratus deck by 14/15Z, then to VFR levels for all sites except SSI, staying MVFR through 18Z. Winds will be very light and variable as an Atlantic seabreeze advances inland in the afternoon hours with an east to southeasterly light wind. A good chance of sea fog returning in a weak east coast sea breeze for coastal TAF sites late in the period, around the 22-01Z time frame, with increasing cig/vis restrictions by the 03z-06z time frame. Highest confidence of low restrictions is at SSI where we have flight conditions down to LIFR by 03z. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure ridge will extend across the Florida peninsula today through Saturday. This weather pattern will create a prevailing south flow pattern across our local waters and also support some increased chances of sea fog today through Friday affecting mainly the nearshore waters. Some of this sea fog may be dense at times. The high pressure ridge will move east of the area Saturday as a cold front approaches. The cold front will move across the local area early Sunday morning. Northwest winds will strengthen following this frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely through Monday morning. Rip Currents: With some small swells and weak onshore flow, a low end moderate risk is possible today which may extend into Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Areas of low dispersions Today - Patchy high dispersions inland SE GA Friday - Areas of high dispersions Saturday and Sunday - MinRH levels below 30 percent over inland SE GA Monday afternoon High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Saturday. A cold front will move through Saturday night. High pressure will build once again early next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread dense fog this morning. Fog potential also exists Tonight. A round of showers is expected with a cold front over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: Thursday, January 8th: KAMG: 79/2005 Friday, January 9th: KJAX: 83/1974 KGNV: 83/1989 KAMG: 79/1974 KCRG: 81/2022 Saturday, January 10th: KJAX: 82/1957 KGNV: 85/1937 KAMG: 80/1949 KCRG: 79/2014 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 70 57 72 59 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 78 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 76 59 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 81 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 81 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
