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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1274256 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:51 AM 03.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1148 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to gentle winds will become southwest throughout the day. - A more active weather pattern will develop with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Tuesday. - Highest rain chances are expected to occur late Tuesday into Wednesday with a brief lull, followed by another round of higher chances for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1052 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 Other than shower activity in the offshore Gulf waters, the majority of the KEY CWA is dry at this time. The latest 12Z KEY RAOB reveals the reasoning for this as a low-level southerly flow was measured in the boundary layer, which is providing a Cuban shadow influence and this is further verified by recent GOES-19 satellite imagery showing a northward advancing cumulus field dissipating quickly as it spreads offshore of the northern Cuban coastline. While this is acting as a drying mechanism for the time being, forecast soundings do show a gradually veering profile throughout the day in the low levels, which combined with a gradual decrease in wind speeds, may allow for the development of a reverse cloud line across portions of the island chain and this could be one source of precipitation development later today. However, given the low-level dry air in place, further enhanced by the Cuban shadow, and mean wind speeds around 10 kts through the 1000-700mb layer, this scenario is of low confidence at this point. As a result, the main update this morning was to make a slight downward adjustment with PoPs, which now puts the majority of the KEY CWA in the slight category (15-24%). While the Cuban influence has had a role thus far today in keeping things on the drier side, conditions will need to be monitored closely this evening and overnight as there are two potential areas where higher rain chances could occur. The first is around Florida Bay and Upper Keys where convection across the SEFL mainland may produce outflow boundaries that yield development, which could then linger past midnight. Similarly, convection is expected to erupt across Cuba this evening and may be able to propagate across the Straits or produce outflows that ignite additional convection, which ultimately could drift across the Island Chain. PoPs reflect these potential scenarios for tonight with widespread chance (30%-40%) values forecast area- wide. As a result, we will be keeping a close watch on the convective evolution of this throughout the day should additional forecast updates be needed and possibly short-fused marine warnings. && .MARINE... Issued at 508 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will continue with some occasional periods of gentle to moderate. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by Tuesday night as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. As chances for showers and thunderstorms increase, mariners can expect higher winds and seas near this activity. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day with SSW winds around 5-10 knots before becoming VRB near 5 kts for a brief period this evening. However, winds then shift to the SE overnight at 5 to 10 kts through the end of the period. In addition, isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA could occur overnight into Tuesday morning with a potential for brief restrictions, but confidence in precipitation activity is too low to include in TAFs at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274235 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 AM 03.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 508 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light and variable winds will become southeast and freshen early this morning. - A more active weather pattern will develop with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Tuesday. - Highest rain chances are expected to occur late Tuesday into Wednesday with a brief lull, followed by another round of higher chances for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 508 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 Showers moving northwest into the offshore Straits of Florida have lulled in strength and frequency as last night turns into this morning. Now, isolated showers are drifting in the northwestern Gulf waters. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s making for a muggy early morning. Across the Reef, marine locations are observing light and variable winds. Today, shower development is possible as the winds shift southeasterly allowing for more moisture to be pushed into the area. Due to the southeast winds cloud line development is possible which could result in some waterspout formation. The pattern will start to shift to become more wet as southeasterly flow brings in more tropical moisture on late Tuesday. Thereafter the ridge will start to build over south Florida. As we sit in between the trough and the ridge on Wenesday we will enter a region where chances of rain will breifly dip from higher PoPs to more average. This will only last one or two periods because another round of higher rain chances return by Friday. By the weekend, things will once again return to more "near normal" for early August with lower chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 508 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will continue with some occasional periods of gentle to moderate. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by Tuesday night as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. As chances for showers and thunderstorms increase, mariners can expect higher winds and seas near this activity. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Early morning shower activity will lull until mid afternoon when cloud line development is possible and associated showers from that. Variable and light winds will become southeast to south at near 10 knots by the afternoon. Overnight, another period of variable and light winds is possible. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
