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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1284507 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 PM 03.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 256 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. - Rain chances will remain slightly above normal through night. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides may exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. - Rain chances will diminish over the following few days to near or below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 After a burst of showers and thunderstorms earlier in the afternoon, activity has quickly begun to quiet back down. Convection for the most part has either stayed offshore and to the west of the Lower Keys or over the mainland. Winds have been stubborn to decrease and are holding in the 10 to 15 knot range across all of our marine platforms. In the short term, the Keys will remain between a weakening, elongated upper level cut-off low to our west and a ridge pinned against the Carolina coastline. This is maintaining a broad area of convergence across the area with a moist low level flow. This will continue to feed at least low chances (30 to 40%) for additional showers and thunderstorms through the overnight. By Wednesday the upper level reflection of the cut-off low will become poorly defined, while the low to middle level becomes absorbed by an incoming trough from the northwest. This will allow the ridge to briefly build westward and sharpen on Wednesday. This new orientation will allow for a narrow band of convergence to develop across the Upper Keys where we expect the highest chances for more showers and thunderstorms. By late Wednesday into Thursday, the approaching upper level trough will sweep through, helping to scour out what moisture remains. At the same time, drier air in the lower levels will round the ridge along the Carolinas. The combination of the two sources of dry air will effectively shutdown precip chances for the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend. Beyond Saturday, the weather becomes chaotic and messy and our confidence drops considerably. This is because the next potential weather maker for the Keys has yet to move ashore off the Pacific and thereby be properly sampled by the upper air radiosonde network. The weather for next hinges on what happens. The GFS and ECMWF generally show a trough moving onshore Thursday from the PacNW and then diving southeast towards Florida by early next week. Where they differ is on the speed, orientation (a deep trough with two vort maxes, or a cut-off low), strength (owing back to the orientation), and placement. There are a lot of variable at play here and we won`t have a better idea of next week until later this week. For now, have opted a middle ground approach with increasing winds and moisture starting Sunday and going through at least Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes continue this afternoon and will gradually slacken through the overnight. Surface pressure across the region will lessen allowing for breezes to undergo a brief cycle of peaks and lulls Wednesday through Friday. Thereafter, there is the potential for a surface high to develop across the Gulf Basin. This in turn would induce a a nightly northwest wind surge along the west coast of Florida over the weekend. Confidence on this is medium at this time. Otherwise, drier conditions will return starting Wednesday evening and continue through the upcoming weekend. Watching a complicated a messy system to take shape early next week which may have sweeping changes for the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 VFR conditions expected outside of any passing shower. Confidence on when or if showers restart is too low to include mentions to the current TAF cycle. Rain/thunder chances will quickly diminish from west to east during the day on Wednesday and may even stay east of the MTH terminal. Otherwise, expect an E to SE wind near 10 knots, gradually backing to the east and slackening slightly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 84 76 83 / 30 10 20 10 Marathon 77 84 77 84 / 30 20 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284481 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 03.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. - Rain chances will remain slightly above normal today. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides may exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. - Rain chances will diminish over the following few days to near or below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A much quieter morning for the Florida Keys today. Some showers were lingering across the Upper and Middle Keys around sunrise, which quickly dissipated. Within the last hour KBYX radar shows a flair up in showers and potential thunderstorms have begun developing across the distant Straits of Florida between Cay Sal Bank and the Middle Keys. This activity should remain out across open water as the flow is nearly east to west this morning. Otherwise, the Keys remain between features. A cut-off low in the mid and upper levels is gradually deteriorating and losing its strength. However, in the low levels we have an Atlantic Ridge providing a moisture rich east to southeast flow. As a result, today`s weather pattern will be more mesoscale driven as opposed to a combination of mesoscale and synoptic like we saw yesterday. With that in mind, have opted to leave rain chances at their current standings. The Upper Keys, which lie closer to a convergence boundary will see slightly higher rain chances than the rest of the Keys. Likewise, most of the showers and thunderstorms that may develop this afternoon will likely stay out across the open waters of the Florida Straits. No changes were made or needed for this update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes continue this morning and will prevail into the afternoon. The Gulf waters in the lee of the mainland may see a brief slackening of breezes this afternoon. Otherwise, showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across mainly the eastern half of the Straits of Florida as well as the Hawk Channel waters off the Upper Keys. While coverage of activity will be less, any shower or thunderstorm that develops today will carry a risk of gusty, erratic winds, visibility reductions, and a few lightning strikes. Chances for showers and storms will continue to decline through the next 12 to 24 hours and are expecting dry conditions for the second half of the week, along with gradually slackening breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of any passing convection. Most of the activity is expected to remain offshore but may briefly affect the MTH terminal at times. May need to extend the period of VCSH into the afternoon for MTH, otherwise, near surface winds will continue out of the east to southeast at 10 knots or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A strong surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the eastern United States while a weak trough remains in the southeastern Gulf. This is resulting in east to southeasterly breezes that are moderate on our eastern zones and light on our west. This ridge trough arrangement is resulting in organized lower level veering and confluence across our area. However, upper level support around a southern stream trough is not aligned overhead. For the time being, activity across the Keys has largely washed out in recent hours. With that said, scattered to numerous activity is present on the distant Florida Straits and beyond. Temperatures have come down to near 80 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The southeastern Gulf troughing is expected to weaken as it shifts north northwestward into the northeastern Gulf. This should take the best low level confluence with it. However, some low level lift is expected to continue through today, along with deep layered moisture remaining rather high. In addition, the environment is expected to be uncapped with ample CAPE. As a result, rain chances will remain moderately above normal for this time of year. The Atlantic ridge will remain positioned off to our north, but the gradient is expected to slacken slightly through the day. Expect seasonal temperatures, but dew points remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 76 83 76 / 30 30 20 30 Marathon 84 77 84 76 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284458 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 03.Nov.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 409 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. - Rain chances will remain slightly above normal today. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides may exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. - Rain chances will diminish over the following few days to near or slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A strong surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the eastern United States while a weak trough remains in the southeastern Gulf. This is resulting in east to southeasterly breezes that are moderate on our eastern zones and light on our west. This ridge trough arrangement is resulting in organized lower level veering and confluence across our area. However, upper level support around a southern stream trough is not aligned overhead. For the time being, activity across the Keys has largely washed out in recent hours. With that said, scattered to numerous activity is present on the distant Florida Straits and beyond. Temperatures have come down to near 80 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The southeastern Gulf troughing is expected to weaken as it shifts north northwestward into the northeastern Gulf. This should take the best low level confluence with it. However, some low level lift is expected to continue through today, along with deep layered moisture remaining rather high. In addition, the environment is expected to be uncapped with ample CAPE. As a result, rain chances will remain moderately above normal for this time of year. The Atlantic ridge will remain positioned off to our north, but the gradient is expected to slacken slightly through the day. Expect seasonal temperatures, but dew points remaining above normal in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 A robust Atlantic ridge stretching westward through the eastern United States is maintaining east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this morning. There is a wind speeding gradient across our waters with moderate breezes off to our east and light breezes to the west. This is due to stubborn troughing in the southeastern Gulf. This trough is expected to finally move northwestward today. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient in the South Florida region should relax some today. Together, breezes will become a bit more uniform gentle east to southeasterly today. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light out of the east to southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ |
