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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection:
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#1205912 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 PM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
The KBYX radar has detected a small line of showers that are
currently passing through the Middle Keys, but these are shallow
and light in nature. Outside of this, satellite shows a field of
cumulus clouds tracking across the region from east to west.
Looking out of the window here, we can see these clouds
occasionally block some sunlight, but we still need our sunglasses
when we step out. The headliner remains the elevated breezes. The
Key West and Marathon airport ASOS stations have reported
sustained winds near 15 mph, and gusts of 25 to almost 30 mph all
day. While the dominating high pressure system is losing some of
its strength, and will continue to flatten over the coming days,
what you see outside today is what you can expect as we head into
the weekend.

Sometime over the course of Sunday and Monday, large-scale
ridging looks possible over the southeastern U.S., but a great
spread across model solutions regarding the pattern in the
Caribbean is leading to a significant lack of confidence in the
forecast for next week. The National Hurricane Center is
monitoring an area in the Caribbean just south of Cuba, and
another just east of Cuba. Long term guidance suggests that some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity may develop in
either of these areas. Models take either disturbance in different
directions, and where they end up going will decide what the
sensible weather looks like. All of this is to say that next week
is unclear, and we won`t know more until guidance can provide a
clearer picture.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect across all Florida Keys
waters. From synopsis, as the high pressure system over the North
Atlantic continues to weaken, the currently strong northeasterly
breezes will slacken just a bit. A brief period of moderate
breezes over the gulfside waters is possible over the weekend, but
a second high pressure system developing over the northeastern
United States will tighten the pressure gradient by Monday. Shower
activity will remain light and intermittent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers have developed to the
south of the Lower Keys. These showers are expected to continue
moving westward over the next few hours and may impact the EYW
terminal. Most of these showers will be light to occasionally
moderate. Any showers will be capable of bringing brief MVFR CIGs
with VIS most likely remaining VFR. Since the exact movement and
placement of these showers remains uncertain, VCSH was kept out of
the TAFs for now. Surface winds will remain from the northeast to
east at 11 to 16 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through
the overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1933, Key West experienced its wettest October ever with 23.56"
of rain recorded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 77 85 77 85 / 20 20 20 20
Marathon 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$
#1205887 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1048 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
This morning is looking just a little more active than this time
yesterday! Rainfall estimates over the last 12 hours suggest that
the island chain saw anywhere from a tenth to a third of an inch
of rainfall. The KBYX radar shows a persistent line of showers
currently moving across the Middle Keys, recently passing over the
Marathon Airport. The ASOS observation shows just a couple of
hundredths of an inch of rain from this line fell at the airport.
While radar reflectivity does make this activity look pretty
lively, the rainfall total at the airport reflects the weak and
shallow nature of these showers that are out there. The morning
radiosonde launch calculated a PWAT value of 1.49 inches, but the
easterly flow near the surface likely ushered the sonde into a
moister air mass. Current CIMSS MIMIC PWAT shows values mostly
from 1.15 to 1.40 inches overhead. Looking to our east where our
lower level air mass is coming from, PWAT values are closer to one
inch. As this drier air filters in, it may help to knock out the
showers that are out there. Taking into consideration that we live
in Florida, we can`t rule out a rogue shower or two later today,
so we will continue to advertise 10 percent PoPs for the rest of
today and 20 percent for tonight.

While things do still feel breezy outside, the strongest winds
should be over with as they had passed through during the
nighttime hours. This downward trend won`t be too noticeable as
the pressure gradient is still pretty strong, so expect breezes
along the Keys to tick down closer to 15 mph. Over the waters, we
are opting to keep the Small Craft Advisory through the rest of
the day and into tonight as breezes are still strong between 20
and 25 knots, or approximately 23 to 29 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all Florida Keys
waters. From synopsis, the high pressure system over the North
Atlantic continues to weaken. In response, strong northeasterly
breezes will slacken just a little bit. A brief period of moderate
breezes over the gulfside waters is possible over the weekend,
but a second high pressure system developing over the northeastern
United States will tighten the pressure gradient by Monday. After
a pulse of rainfall early this morning, showers will become light
and transient.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Isolated shower activity is expected to continue at both terminals
for the next few hours, especially MTH. Most of these showers will
be light to occasionally moderate. Any showers will be capable of
bringing brief MVFR CIGs with VIS most likely remaining VFR. Drier
air can be seen moving in with the back edge of the showers south of
Layton with virtually no activity detected behind this. Surface
winds will remain from the northeast to east at 11 to 16 knots with
frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1933, Key West experienced its wettest October ever with 23.56"
of rain recorded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 85 77 85 77 / 10 20 20 10
Marathon 85 77 86 77 / 10 20 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$
#1205847 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 31.Oct.2024)
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A dry day for the Keys gave way to a surprisingly active morning
on the KBYX radar. Heavy showers developing along the leading edge
of a wind speed convergence boundary were able to generate a 39
knot gust at Carysfort Light before they crossed into bayside
waters. While individual showers were capable of generating 40 dBz
returns, cross section scans of the showers indicated a 12 to 15
kft cap. Cloud-derived wind analyses from CIMSS indicated deep
layers of sinking air linger over the Florida Keys. GOES-East observations
corroborated the amount of dry air given the lack of mid or high
altitude clouds near South Florida. Conditions across the Keys
coastal waters remain breezy this morning, and Keys residents can
expect to be greeted by another day of elevated wind.

Few changes were made to the morning forecast. Long lived high
pressure systems often result in persistence being the name of the
game. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic weakened
to 1031 mb last night and model ensembles indicate that trend
will continue. Expect breezes to slacken slightly across the CWA
over the weekend before another high builds over the eastern
United States.

Shower chances will remain average to below average across the
Keys this week. While the morning burst of showers was impressive
given the deep layers of dry air aloft, it took broad wind speed
convergence boundary to generate rainfall. Absent a source of
lift, showers will collapse by mid morning. Shower chances will
return to the average, near 20%, over the weekend. Next week will
be much more uncertain. The magnitude of the next high pressure
system remains to be seen, and model ensembles show a shift in the
mean layer winds towards southeasterly, which would result in more
moisture, mid week. In the meantime, enjoy the mostly clear skies
and breezy conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal Florida Keys
waters. From synopsis, the high pressure system over the North
Atlantic continues to weaken. In response, strong northeasterly
breezes will slacken to fresh to occasionally strong today and
tonight across the Florida Keys. A brief period of moderate
breezes over the gulfside waters is possible over the weekend, but
a second high pressure system developing over the northeastern
United States will tighten the pressure gradient by Monday. After
a pulse of rainfall early this morning, showers will become light
and transient.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Isolated shower activity will continue at both terminals through
around sunrise, so have kept VCSH until then. Most showers will be
light to moderate, but could bring brief MVFR CIGS and VIS as they
pass over the terminals. Short-term amendments may be required if
any stronger showers move across either terminal. Thereafter, a
drier airmass is progged to filter in, which will decrease shower
coverage. Surface winds will remain from the northeast to east at 11
to 16 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...

In 1933, Key West experienced its wettest October ever with 23.56"
of rain recorded.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$