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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1256591 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 433 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Isolated showers will move across the Straits of Florida and may at times clip the island chain. -Temperatures will be unseasonably warm through the rest of the work week, with highs around 80 degrees, and lows in the lower 70s. -Confidence is increasing for a potentially strong frontal passage around the end of the weekend or early next work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Another mostly quiet overnight with some isolated showers skirting the Straits of Florida. As was the case last night, these showers have approached the island chain but have dissipated with just some sprinkles possibly falling across a few of the island communities. Meanwhile, low ridge ridge has consolidated across the southwestern Atlantic and extends across the Florida Peninsula. This has allowed for winds to gradually freshen overnight with generally gentle to moderate breezes this morning. For today, the building ridge will continue to channel low level moisture along its periphery. The moisture plume will be mostly oriented across the Straits of Florida but may at times butt up against the island chain today. This may result in a few sprinkles or a brief light shower. Once this plume pivots out of the area, drier air will filter back in and return PoPs to near nil, roughly for the next 48 hours. By this weekend, the ridge will get shunted eastward by the next approaching upper level trough. This will allow for some low level moisture to bunch up along the southwest periphery and bring back dime PoPs to the island chain as early as Saturday night. Thereafter, a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region will bring our next cold front late Sunday into early Monday. As well as increasing our rain chances, winds will freshen in its wake. Models are honing on in that this frontal boundary will then stall near or over the Florida Keys. This could lead to a more active than usual weather pattern for the Keys. While confidence has grown on the cold front, what happens post-frontal remains uncertain at this time and will keep PoPs lower than guidance for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 433 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 A ridge has consolidated across the southwestern Atlantic and extends across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This has allowed for breezes to freshen to generally gentle to moderate this morning. As the ridge continues to consolidate across the Atlantic, this will maintain gentle to moderate breezes for most of our waters. The exception will be out across the Straits of Florida, where moderate to occasionally fresh breezes can be expected. Breezes will briefly slacken Saturday through early Sunday ahead of the next approaching front. This front will move through late Sunday and early Monday with freshening northerly breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. Northeasterly surface winds of 5 to 10 knots this morning will veer easterly this afternoon. Opting to keep the current TAF package dry even though very light showers may develop near the island chain this morning or afternoon. Chances are slight, between 10 and 20 percent, so amendments can be made if necessary. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1997, the daily record high temperature of 83F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 72 79 70 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 80 72 78 71 / 10 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
