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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1205912 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 PM 31.Oct.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 308 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 The KBYX radar has detected a small line of showers that are currently passing through the Middle Keys, but these are shallow and light in nature. Outside of this, satellite shows a field of cumulus clouds tracking across the region from east to west. Looking out of the window here, we can see these clouds occasionally block some sunlight, but we still need our sunglasses when we step out. The headliner remains the elevated breezes. The Key West and Marathon airport ASOS stations have reported sustained winds near 15 mph, and gusts of 25 to almost 30 mph all day. While the dominating high pressure system is losing some of its strength, and will continue to flatten over the coming days, what you see outside today is what you can expect as we head into the weekend. Sometime over the course of Sunday and Monday, large-scale ridging looks possible over the southeastern U.S., but a great spread across model solutions regarding the pattern in the Caribbean is leading to a significant lack of confidence in the forecast for next week. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area in the Caribbean just south of Cuba, and another just east of Cuba. Long term guidance suggests that some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity may develop in either of these areas. Models take either disturbance in different directions, and where they end up going will decide what the sensible weather looks like. All of this is to say that next week is unclear, and we won`t know more until guidance can provide a clearer picture. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect across all Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as the high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to weaken, the currently strong northeasterly breezes will slacken just a bit. A brief period of moderate breezes over the gulfside waters is possible over the weekend, but a second high pressure system developing over the northeastern United States will tighten the pressure gradient by Monday. Shower activity will remain light and intermittent. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers have developed to the south of the Lower Keys. These showers are expected to continue moving westward over the next few hours and may impact the EYW terminal. Most of these showers will be light to occasionally moderate. Any showers will be capable of bringing brief MVFR CIGs with VIS most likely remaining VFR. Since the exact movement and placement of these showers remains uncertain, VCSH was kept out of the TAFs for now. Surface winds will remain from the northeast to east at 11 to 16 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through the overnight. && .CLIMATE... In 1933, Key West experienced its wettest October ever with 23.56" of rain recorded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 85 77 85 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1205887 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1048 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 This morning is looking just a little more active than this time yesterday! Rainfall estimates over the last 12 hours suggest that the island chain saw anywhere from a tenth to a third of an inch of rainfall. The KBYX radar shows a persistent line of showers currently moving across the Middle Keys, recently passing over the Marathon Airport. The ASOS observation shows just a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain from this line fell at the airport. While radar reflectivity does make this activity look pretty lively, the rainfall total at the airport reflects the weak and shallow nature of these showers that are out there. The morning radiosonde launch calculated a PWAT value of 1.49 inches, but the easterly flow near the surface likely ushered the sonde into a moister air mass. Current CIMSS MIMIC PWAT shows values mostly from 1.15 to 1.40 inches overhead. Looking to our east where our lower level air mass is coming from, PWAT values are closer to one inch. As this drier air filters in, it may help to knock out the showers that are out there. Taking into consideration that we live in Florida, we can`t rule out a rogue shower or two later today, so we will continue to advertise 10 percent PoPs for the rest of today and 20 percent for tonight. While things do still feel breezy outside, the strongest winds should be over with as they had passed through during the nighttime hours. This downward trend won`t be too noticeable as the pressure gradient is still pretty strong, so expect breezes along the Keys to tick down closer to 15 mph. Over the waters, we are opting to keep the Small Craft Advisory through the rest of the day and into tonight as breezes are still strong between 20 and 25 knots, or approximately 23 to 29 mph. && .MARINE... Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to weaken. In response, strong northeasterly breezes will slacken just a little bit. A brief period of moderate breezes over the gulfside waters is possible over the weekend, but a second high pressure system developing over the northeastern United States will tighten the pressure gradient by Monday. After a pulse of rainfall early this morning, showers will become light and transient. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Isolated shower activity is expected to continue at both terminals for the next few hours, especially MTH. Most of these showers will be light to occasionally moderate. Any showers will be capable of bringing brief MVFR CIGs with VIS most likely remaining VFR. Drier air can be seen moving in with the back edge of the showers south of Layton with virtually no activity detected behind this. Surface winds will remain from the northeast to east at 11 to 16 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through tonight. && .CLIMATE... In 1933, Key West experienced its wettest October ever with 23.56" of rain recorded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 77 85 77 / 10 20 20 10 Marathon 85 77 86 77 / 10 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1205847 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A dry day for the Keys gave way to a surprisingly active morning on the KBYX radar. Heavy showers developing along the leading edge of a wind speed convergence boundary were able to generate a 39 knot gust at Carysfort Light before they crossed into bayside waters. While individual showers were capable of generating 40 dBz returns, cross section scans of the showers indicated a 12 to 15 kft cap. Cloud-derived wind analyses from CIMSS indicated deep layers of sinking air linger over the Florida Keys. GOES-East observations corroborated the amount of dry air given the lack of mid or high altitude clouds near South Florida. Conditions across the Keys coastal waters remain breezy this morning, and Keys residents can expect to be greeted by another day of elevated wind. Few changes were made to the morning forecast. Long lived high pressure systems often result in persistence being the name of the game. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic weakened to 1031 mb last night and model ensembles indicate that trend will continue. Expect breezes to slacken slightly across the CWA over the weekend before another high builds over the eastern United States. Shower chances will remain average to below average across the Keys this week. While the morning burst of showers was impressive given the deep layers of dry air aloft, it took broad wind speed convergence boundary to generate rainfall. Absent a source of lift, showers will collapse by mid morning. Shower chances will return to the average, near 20%, over the weekend. Next week will be much more uncertain. The magnitude of the next high pressure system remains to be seen, and model ensembles show a shift in the mean layer winds towards southeasterly, which would result in more moisture, mid week. In the meantime, enjoy the mostly clear skies and breezy conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to weaken. In response, strong northeasterly breezes will slacken to fresh to occasionally strong today and tonight across the Florida Keys. A brief period of moderate breezes over the gulfside waters is possible over the weekend, but a second high pressure system developing over the northeastern United States will tighten the pressure gradient by Monday. After a pulse of rainfall early this morning, showers will become light and transient. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Isolated shower activity will continue at both terminals through around sunrise, so have kept VCSH until then. Most showers will be light to moderate, but could bring brief MVFR CIGS and VIS as they pass over the terminals. Short-term amendments may be required if any stronger showers move across either terminal. Thereafter, a drier airmass is progged to filter in, which will decrease shower coverage. Surface winds will remain from the northeast to east at 11 to 16 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through tonight. && .CLIMATE... In 1933, Key West experienced its wettest October ever with 23.56" of rain recorded. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
