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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1257144 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 14.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 540 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Small Craft Advisories will be in effect from midday Wednesday through mid-afternoon Thursday due to cold air advection behind a frontal passage. A few gusts to gale force are possible. - A few locations well north of Interstate 12 could briefly fall below freezing around sunrise Thursday with a more widespread freeze likely Friday morning. - According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly half of all home fires occur between the months of December, January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this cold snap should safety recommendations - such as using a screen and keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable materials. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Deep longwave trough over eastern Canada into the Ohio River Valley this evening with multiple shortwaves moving through it. There was a southern stream shortwave moving through east Texas. Upper ridging was centered over northern California. At the surface, a narrow ridge of high pressure was along the northern Gulf Coast. Low pressure over eastern Canada had numerous wind shifts/frontal boundaries wrapping around it, with the one most likely to impact the local weather moving through Oklahoma and Texas at mid evening. Mid and high clouds covered most of the area with radar and surface observations indicating a few patches of rain showers over the area. Amounts have been very minimal with no lightning indicated. Evening temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to mid 50s. The southern stream shortwave will race eastward and be over the Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening. A northern stream shortwave moving toward the base of the upper trough will cross the area by evening, with a third shortwave reaching the base of the trough by Thursday afternoon. The 00z LIX and LCH soundings were very dry below 750 mb (about 7500 feet), so it will take a while to moisten up. Any areas that see rain in the short term portion of the forecast will have it perhaps until mid-morning, and rain amounts will be light, as the best forcing may depart before the lower layers reach saturation. Cloud cover may be slower to clear, closer to sunset. It should be noted that 500 mb temperatures are rather chilly, as low as -20C to -25C during the afternoon, and if we were to get some sunshine before the moisture departs, there`d be a very low end threat of small hail or graupel. Certainly not enough of a threat to play up, but something to watch. Thursday will be sunny and cold. Precipitable water values near 0.10 inch Thursday (close to the climo minimum) means it`ll be tough to even get any clouds. Clouds overnight will likely hold most areas in the 40s through sunrise. The reinforcement of cold air won`t really arrive until near sunset Wednesday, so high temperatures could still get into the mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. A brief freeze possible late Wednesday night if winds drop off enough well to the north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor, but not a large enough threat to justify freeze products at this time. Thursday is unlikely to get past the lower 50s for highs. More significant threat for a freeze Thursday night as winds go calm with dry air in place. Much of the area north of the Interstate 10/12 could fall into the upper 20s around sunrise Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Upper troughing covers much of the eastern 2/3 of the country through the weekend into at least early next week. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will reinforce the cold dry air on a couple occasions, with the first Friday night or Saturday. Precipitable water values are forecast to remain below 0.75 inches (approx 50th percentile) until perhaps next Tuesday night, so significant precipitation is going to be rather difficult to come by. Perhaps a few sprinkles with the shortwave passage around Friday night, but otherwise not much through the daytime hours Tuesday. For the most part, not a lot of spread in temperature guidance, although would note that NBM deterministic favors the cooler guidance on Saturday (generally ECMWF) and is cooler than both the GFS and ECMWF for highs on Sunday. Several opportunities for light freezes over the northern half of the area, but nothing catastrophic. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 VFR conditions are currently in place across the region and for the most part most terminals will remain VFR status through the day. However, there is a limited window for cigs and/or vsbys to fall into MVFR over the next 2 hours as -RA/-SHRA linger over the area the next few hours. By 14/15z that impact should come to an end with mostly mid and upper lvl clouds. Other small impact could be winds behind the front late this afternoon and overnight. LLWS could be an issue for a few sites. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Winds will become westerly during the morning as the high pressure shifts quickly eastward. Wind speeds increase by midday into early afternoon with a cold frontal passage and cold air advection behind the front. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for all waters starting at noon, although it may be late afternoon before winds ramp up over the eastern outer waters. Could be a few gusts to gale force overnight into early Thursday morning, but not high enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Oncoming shifts will continue to monitor. Conditions should improve pretty quickly Thursday night as high pressure returns to the waters. However, favorable conditions may be pretty short lived with cold frontal passages approximately every 48 hours into early next week. Additional advisories may be necessary as early as Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 29 47 28 / 40 10 0 0 BTR 64 33 52 29 / 20 10 0 0 ASD 64 32 52 27 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 67 38 52 36 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 62 33 51 30 / 20 10 0 0 PQL 62 31 50 27 / 10 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1257112 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 14.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Small Craft Advisories will be in effect from midday Wednesday through mid-afternoon Thursday due to cold air advection behind a frontal passage. A few gusts to gale force are possible. - A few locations well north of Interstate 12 could briefly fall below freezing around sunrise Thursday with a more widespread freeze likely Friday morning. - According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly half of all home fires occur between the months of December, January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this cold snap should safety recommendations - such as using a screen and keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable materials. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Deep longwave trough over eastern Canada into the Ohio River Valley this evening with multiple shortwaves moving through it. There was a southern stream shortwave moving through east Texas. Upper ridging was centered over northern California. At the surface, a narrow ridge of high pressure was along the northern Gulf Coast. Low pressure over eastern Canada had numerous wind shifts/frontal boundaries wrapping around it, with the one most likely to impact the local weather moving through Oklahoma and Texas at mid evening. Mid and high clouds covered most of the area with radar and surface observations indicating a few patches of rain showers over the area. Amounts have been very minimal with no lightning indicated. Evening temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to mid 50s. The southern stream shortwave will race eastward and be over the Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening. A northern stream shortwave moving toward the base of the upper trough will cross the area by evening, with a third shortwave reaching the base of the trough by Thursday afternoon. The 00z LIX and LCH soundings were very dry below 750 mb (about 7500 feet), so it will take a while to moisten up. Any areas that see rain in the short term portion of the forecast will have it perhaps until mid-morning, and rain amounts will be light, as the best forcing may depart before the lower layers reach saturation. Cloud cover may be slower to clear, closer to sunset. It should be noted that 500 mb temperatures are rather chilly, as low as -20C to -25C during the afternoon, and if we were to get some sunshine before the moisture departs, there`d be a very low end threat of small hail or graupel. Certainly not enough of a threat to play up, but something to watch. Thursday will be sunny and cold. Precipitable water values near 0.10 inch Thursday (close to the climo minimum) means it`ll be tough to even get any clouds. Clouds overnight will likely hold most areas in the 40s through sunrise. The reinforcement of cold air won`t really arrive until near sunset Wednesday, so high temperatures could still get into the mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. A brief freeze possible late Wednesday night if winds drop off enough well to the north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor, but not a large enough threat to justify freeze products at this time. Thursday is unlikely to get past the lower 50s for highs. More significant threat for a freeze Thursday night as winds go calm with dry air in place. Much of the area north of the Interstate 10/12 could fall into the upper 20s around sunrise Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Upper troughing covers much of the eastern 2/3 of the country through the weekend into at least early next week. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will reinforce the cold dry air on a couple occasions, with the first Friday night or Saturday. Precipitable water values are forecast to remain below 0.75 inches (approx 50th percentile) until perhaps next Tuesday night, so significant precipitation is going to be rather difficult to come by. Perhaps a few sprinkles with the shortwave passage around Friday night, but otherwise not much through the daytime hours Tuesday. For the most part, not a lot of spread in temperature guidance, although would note that NBM deterministic favors the cooler guidance on Saturday (generally ECMWF) and is cooler than both the GFS and ECMWF for highs on Sunday. Several opportunities for light freezes over the northern half of the area, but nothing catastrophic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 VFR conditions in place and should be the predominant condition through the forecast period. However, could be some brief MVFR conditions as a few patches of -RA/-SHRA move across the terminals during the overnight hours, perhaps as late as 15z or so before ending. Have seen no indications of lightning all evening and none included in the forecast. One concern for the daytime hours tomorrow could be winds behind the cold front, especially at KNEW and KMSY, where gusts to 25 knots or a little more are possible during the afternoon hours. Some mentions of LLWS in northern terminals after sunset, but not a particularly high confidence forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Winds will become westerly during the morning as the high pressure shifts quickly eastward. Wind speeds increase by midday into early afternoon with a cold frontal passage and cold air advection behind the front. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for all waters starting at noon, although it may be late afternoon before winds ramp up over the eastern outer waters. Could be a few gusts to gale force overnight into early Thursday morning, but not high enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Oncoming shifts will continue to monitor. Conditions should improve pretty quickly Thursday night as high pressure returns to the waters. However, favorable conditions may be pretty short lived with cold frontal passages approximately every 48 hours into early next week. Additional advisories may be necessary as early as Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 29 47 28 / 40 10 0 0 BTR 64 33 52 29 / 20 10 0 0 ASD 64 33 52 28 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 66 38 51 36 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 62 33 51 30 / 20 10 0 0 PQL 62 31 50 27 / 20 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
