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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1232777 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 626 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Weak high surface pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend keeping the weather generally quiet. The biggest question is whether isolated to widely scattered showers will pop up late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a fast- moving upper disturbance barrels into the area embedded within the overall upper trough axis. Since the timing looks to coincide with peak daytime heating, it seems we should see at least a few showers develop as the shortwave moves into and through the area. And indeed, most CAM guidance agrees on this scenario, though the specifics are quite varied. That being said, have continued to carry generally 15-20% POPs to account for the low-end, location-specific rain chances. Regarding temperatures, expect lows in the mid to upper 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s south, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s on Sunday. This is near normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An elongated upper high will control the area weather Monday and Tuesday leading to generally quiet conditions and a gradual warming trend as surface high pressure slides east of the local area with warm and moist air moving back into the area from the Gulf. Expect temperatures to be near or slightly above normal with no significant rain chances. The upper high begins to break down Wednesday as a fast-moving upper disturbance moves toward the middle Mississippi valley. The front associated with this system will stall WELL northwest of the area, keeping us entrenched in a warm and humid airmass. Expect to see typical summer-like showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours driven by the diurnal heating cycle. Beyond Friday, please resist the urge buy into any individual model forecasts regarding a tropical low that may or may not form around central America during the second week of June associated with the Central American gyre (CAG). The CAG is a seasonal area of low pressure that typically forms near Central America during the May-June timeframe. Tropical lows associated with the CAG can develop on either the Pacific or Atlantic side of the continent, and their specific genesis locations greatly affect their eventual paths. With that said, there is little to no confidence 7+ days out regarding whether or where the CAG might result in cyclogenesis. Remember to make sure you are following reliable sources for your weather information. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions across the area, and expected to continue for most or all of the forecast period. Cloud cover could become a little more extensive Sunday afternoon as a shortwave approaches from the northwest, but temperature/dew point spreads would indicate cloud bases should remain above FL040. There is a low-end threat for TSRA late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening with the aforementioned shortwave, but confidence is not high enough to carry at a particular terminal that far out in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A stalled boundary over the northern Gulf will keep winds light and somewhat variable today. The front will move northward again Sunday with a return to onshore flow. As the gradient gradually tightens, expect wind speeds to slowly strengthen to 10 to 15 knots by midweek. Rain chances will generally remain low for the remainder of today and tomorrow, but will gradually increase through midweek with a return to daily scattered showers and storms Wed through Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 86 65 88 / 0 20 10 10 BTR 67 88 70 90 / 0 20 10 10 ASD 64 88 68 89 / 0 10 20 10 MSY 70 89 73 89 / 0 10 20 10 GPT 66 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 10 PQL 64 87 67 88 / 0 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232755 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 114 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Weak high surface pressure will remain in place through the remainder of the weekend keeping the weather generally quiet. The biggest question is whether isolated to widely scattered showers will pop up late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a fast- moving upper disturbance barrels into the area embedded within the overall upper trough axis. Since the timing looks to coincide with peak daytime heating, it seems we should see at least a few showers develop as the shortwave moves into and through the area. And indeed, most CAM guidance agrees on this scenario, though the specifics are quite varied. That being said, have continued to carry generally 15-20% POPs to account for the low-end, location-specific rain chances. Regarding temperatures, expect lows in the mid to upper 60s north and upper 60s to lower 70s south, with highs rebounding into the upper 80s on Sunday. This is near normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An elongated upper high will control the area weather Monday and Tuesday leading to generally quiet conditions and a gradual warming trend as surface high pressure slides east of the local area with warm and moist air moving back into the area from the Gulf. Expect temperatures to be near or slightly above normal with no significant rain chances. The upper high begins to break down Wednesday as a fast-moving upper disturbance moves toward the middle Mississippi valley. The front associated with this system will stall WELL northwest of the area, keeping us entrenched in a warm and humid airmass. Expect to see typical summer-like showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours driven by the diurnal heating cycle. Beyond Friday, please resist the urge buy into any individual model forecasts regarding a tropical low that may or may not form around central America during the second week of June associated with the Central American gyre (CAG). The CAG is a seasonal area of low pressure that typically forms near Central America during the May-June timeframe. Tropical lows associated with the CAG can develop on either the Pacific or Atlantic side of the continent, and their specific genesis locations greatly affect their eventual paths. With that said, there is little to no confidence 7+ days out regarding whether or where the CAG might result in cyclogenesis. Remember to make sure you are following reliable sources for your weather information. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure results in mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A stalled boundary over the northern Gulf will keep winds light and somewhat variable today. The front will move northward again Sunday with a return to onshore flow. As the gradient gradually tightens, expect wind speeds to slowly strengthen to 10 to 15 knots by midweek. Rain chances will generally remain low for the remainder of today and tomorrow, but will gradually increase through midweek with a return to daily scattered showers and storms Wed through Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 86 65 88 / 0 20 10 10 BTR 67 88 70 90 / 0 20 10 10 ASD 64 88 68 89 / 0 10 20 10 MSY 70 89 73 89 / 0 10 20 10 GPT 66 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 10 PQL 64 87 67 88 / 0 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232750 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Cold front has made it to the coast this morning and continue to slowly move offshore today. This has already started bringing some nice comfortable temps and dew pts to the northern half of the area and this should continue southward this morning. The front will get pushed back to at least the coast early Sunday and pivot between Venice and Lafayette sending the western part of the front well inland. Sunday should be another nice day, or at least most of it, before rain and storm chances increase once again. Model consensus has the area with light precip chances but we will bump these up a bit. An MCS will begin to develop late today from the short wave currently over the Dakotas. This feature will drop almost due south today through Sunday bringing most of the storms into TX and western LA by Sunday. We should see the complex of storms moving through eastern Colorado tonight. Some of the outflow from this may be able to spark some storms along the frontal boundary by late Sunday so we have bumped up numbers across the area for this. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A diurnal driven few days of sh/ts for the start of the new week then we should see another cold front moving SE by mid week approaching the area, but this one looks to stall before getting here. But it may be able to keep our rain chances in the normal range for summer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure results in mostly clear skies and light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A cold front is currently moving offshore and most winds over the coastal waters have shifted to north at around 15kt. The front will stall over the northern gulf later this morning. Winds will become light and variable by late today. Light onshore flow will develop once again Sun and slowly rise to 10-15kt by mid week. A small window of very little storm activity will occur late this morning through a good portion of Sun, but outside that window, chances for strong or severe storms, although low, will remain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 20 10 BTR 86 67 88 69 / 0 0 20 10 ASD 86 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 20 MSY 86 71 88 73 / 0 0 10 20 GPT 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 10 20 PQL 86 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1232702 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 31.May.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 334 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Cold front has made it to the coast this morning and continue to slowly move offshore today. This has already started bringing some nice comfortable temps and dew pts to the northern half of the area and this should continue southward this morning. The front will get pushed back to at least the coast early Sunday and pivot between Venice and Lafayette sending the western part of the front well inland. Sunday should be another nice day, or at least most of it, before rain and storm chances increase once again. Model concensus has the area with light precip chances but we will bump these up a bit. An MCS will begin to develop late today from the short wave currently over the Dakotas. This feature will drop almost due south today through Sunday bringing most of the storms into TX and western LA by Sunday. We should see the complex of storms moving through eastern Colorado tonight. Some of the outflow from this may be able to spark some storms along the frontal boundary by late Sunday so we have bumped up numbers across the area for this. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A diurnal driven few days of sh/ts for the start of the new week then we should see another cold front moving SE by mid week approaching the area, but this one looks to stall before getting here. But it may be able to keep our rain chances in the normal range for summer. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A cold front is currently moving offshore and most winds over the coastal waters have shifted to north at around 15kt. The front will stall over the northern gulf later this morning. Winds will become light and variable by late today. Light onshore flow will develop once again Sun and slowly rise to 10-15kt by mid week. A small window of very little storm activity will occur late this morning through a good portion of Sun, but outside that window, chances for strong or severe storms, although low, will remain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 85 64 85 64 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 86 67 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 ASD 86 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 86 71 88 73 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 86 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
