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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1181043 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1216 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This will effectively suppress cloud development to below the inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period. Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall, have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum. However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile, and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the short term with high pressure in place over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware, this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low 100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also, kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting. Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend. Something to check back on. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Clear skies and light winds through the period will lead to no appreciable impacts for most terminals. Will have a similar setup as this morning on tomorrow morning with a shallow inversion aiding in light fog and low cloud development. A few terminals such as KMCB, KBTR, and KASD may see MVFR visibilities from the light fog. Otherwise, VFR will dominate the forecast. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is on tap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 72 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 73 86 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181022 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 625 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This will effectively suppress cloud development to below the inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period. Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall, have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum. However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile, and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the short term with high pressure in place over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware, this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low 100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also, kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting. Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend. Something to check back on. KLG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A very shallow ground level inversion has allowed for patchy dense fog and low ceilings to form at ASD, HUM, and GPT over the past couple of hours. Given the shallow nature of the inversion, the fog and low stratus will quickly burn off between 13z and 14z, and return to prevailing VFR conditions at all of the terminals is expected after 14z. Another round of fog and low stratus may develop later tonight, but overall probabilities are too low to mention fog in the forecast except at MCB where a period of IFR conditions are forecast to develop after 11z tomorrow. PG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don`t see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight. These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening. Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions should improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren`t expected to provide any significant restrictions either. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is on tap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 68 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 90 72 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 87 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181003 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 AM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 317 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This will effectively suppress cloud development to below the inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period. Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall, have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum. However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile, and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the short term with high pressure in place over the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware, this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low 100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also, kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting. Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend. Something to check back on. KLG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don`t see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight. These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening. Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions should improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren`t expected to provide any significant restrictions either. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is on tap. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 68 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 90 72 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 87 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180972 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1140 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Generally a quite pattern has evolved for our local CWFA. Aloft, a dry northwesterly flow around the eastern periphery of a 594dam high over Mexico will remain across our region through the short term period. At the surface a high pressure will continue to rule the overall surface pattern with light and variable winds. Skies should remain on the clear side. This could again generate some shallow radiation fog tonight with calm winds and clear skies. SREF guidance is pinging the best potential along the Atchafalaya late tonight or around sunrise on Monday. Kept patchy fog in the grids for now. This should lift pretty rapidly after sunrise. The main story here will be temperatures. As high pressure begins to move east a weak onshore flow will initiate allowing temperatures to be slightly cooler right along the immediate coast...at least cooler than today with a weak northerly flow over our region limiting impacts from the cooler shelf waters. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Tuesday the southerly return flow will be more noticeable. Again, this should moderate temperatures right along the immediate coast with the interaction of the cooler SSTs. However, inland will be a few degrees warmer with most locations ending up in the upper 80s or even perhaps lower 90s. Aloft, the upper ridge mentioned in the short term portion will spread northeast toward the Rio Grande Valley. There will be upper level ridging along the Texas coast and spreading into our region, however, the heights are just a bit lower than previously advertised so temps were knocked down a degree or two from previous higher forecasts. That said, it will still be a warm week ahead with temperatures warming into the middle and upper 80s each day with perhaps the warmer locations such as Baton Rouge reaching the 90F mark each afternoon. By Thursday a weak frontal boundary tries to move southward but stalls to our north across the midsouth region. There will be an upper level impulse overhead and with a more rich boundary layer from a few days of return flow. Think the rain chances will be nonzero, especially across interior southwest MS closer to the front and best upper level dynamics. But largely most of the region appears to be dry with the best QPF signal along and north of the I20 corridor. Going into late week and into the weekend a warming trend is progged by the guidance as upper level heights again try to increase with the upper high strengthening to around 595dam over Deep South Texas. If this does, indeed, occur many across our forecast area will see their warmest temperatures of the season late this week and especially into the next weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions across all terminals at late evening. There are some scattered clouds being reported around FL060 with moisture trapped under the inversion noted on the 00z LIX sounding near 800 mb. Don`t see any real indications that they are going anywhere any time soon, and will carry them in the terminals overnight. These clouds may be part of the reason that NBM probabilities of fog around sunrise have been diminishing this evening. Probabilities of visibilities below 3 SM are generally less than 15 percent across all terminals. Will mention a period around sunrise of 4-5SM at KMCB and KHUM, but will not carry any IFR conditions. Even these visibility restrictions s hould improve around 14z, with VFR the remainder of the day. Winds aren`t expected to provide any significant restrictions either. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region early this week. This will lead to favorable marine conditions through the forecast period. High pressure will begin to exit the region allowing for southerly winds to take shape, but winds should remain at and mostly below 15kts through the week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 69 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 73 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 67 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
