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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1227063 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 PM 16.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 608 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 A strong and deep layer ridge axis will be the main feature impacting the forecast through Friday night. Tonight into tomorrow will continue to see a drier than average airmass persist across the area, and this will keep humidity values low and allow for a larger than average diurnal range. Lows will cool back into the upper 40s and 50s tonight before quickly warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night will see dewpoints begin to rise dramatically as moisture transport from the Gulf intensifies on the back of a sustained onshore flow regime. This will result in overnight lows averaging a good 10 degrees warmer than tonight with readings only cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations. Continued above average temperatures are expected on Friday as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s and lows only cool into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the period of benign weather conditions continues through Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Saturday will be warm and muggy day as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s and temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. A more widespread strato-cumulus cloud field will be in place, and expect to see mostly cloudy conditions for much of the day and even into Saturday night. However, very dry air above 850mb will remain in place, so no rainfall is expected both Saturday and Saturday night. Sunday through Tuesday night will see an overall change in the upper level pattern as the strong ridge axis shifts to the east and a shortwave trough ejects out of the southern Plains. A weak surface low will form over the Ozarks and quickly drive a weak front into the area Sunday afternoon. As through parent trough pulls further to the northeast, the overall flow regime will turn parallel to the frontal boundary Sunday night into Monday, and this will result in the front stalling somewhere in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The end result is that a focusing mechanism for diurnally induced convection will be in place to start out the week. The convective activity on Sunday will be more isolated and mainly confined to the northwest third of the forecast area where height falls are greatest and overall lift is maximized. However, this stalled front will combine with another weak upper level impulse sliding through on the back of the deep layer southwest flow pattern on Monday to produce scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. This will be the highest PoP day and overall rain chances have increased by around 10 percent to 50 to 60 percent for Monday afternoon. Tuesday will see lower PoP in the afternoon hours due to a lack of forcing aloft. Any convection that forms will be more isolated and short lived. Fortunately, the lack of decent shear in the area will keep any convection on the weaker side as well. Temperatures will be warmer than average to start out the period on Saturday and Sunday as highs continue to warm into the mid to upper 80s and lows only cool to around 70, but a return to more normal temperatures is expected on Monday and Tuesday in response to increased convective coverage and cloud development. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Favorable flying conditions through the cycle as VIS and CIGs will remain VFR. Winds have transitioned to a southerly direction and will remain generally light overnight, however, some gusts 20 to 25kts may be possible on Thursday during the afternoon hours. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Winds are expected to remain onshore through the weekend and into early next week as surface ridging dominates the eastern Gulf. A weak front will also slide toward the waters early next week, but the front should stall well inland. The only impact from the front will be a slightly increased risk of thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday. The onshore winds will also increase by Friday and remain elevated in the 15 to 20 knot range through Sunday as a low pressure system intensifies in the southern Plains. Due to the long fetch of the onshore flow regime in the Gulf, significant wave heights will also increase to around 6 feet in the outer open Gulf waters as the combination of wind waves and swell work together to produce rougher conditions. Winds will start to relax on Monday as the low pulls away and the pressure gradient over the waters eases. Seas will slowly improve as the swell train dissipates with seas declining from 5 to 6 feet to 3 to 4 feet by Monday night. Exercise caution headlines will be needed for the weekend in the open Gulf waters, but the more protected sounds and lakes should see better boating conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 50 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 54 84 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 51 81 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 57 81 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 54 76 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1227055 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 16.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 314 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 A strong and deep layer ridge axis will be the main feature impacting the forecast through Friday night. Tonight into tomorrow will continue to see a drier than average airmass persist across the area, and this will keep humidity values low and allow for a larger than average diurnal range. Lows will cool back into the upper 40s and 50s tonight before quickly warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night will see dewpoints begin to rise dramatically as moisture transport from the Gulf intensifies on the back of a sustained onshore flow regime. This will result in overnight lows averaging a good 10 degrees warmer than tonight with readings only cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations. Continued above average temperatures are expected on Friday as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s and lows only cool into the mid to upper 60s. Overall, the period of benign weather conditions continues through Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Saturday will be warm and muggy day as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s and temperatures warm back into the mid to upper 80s. A more widespread strato-cumulus cloud field will be in place, and expect to see mostly cloudy conditions for much of the day and even into Saturday night. However, very dry air above 850mb will remain in place, so no rainfall is expected both Saturday and Saturday night. Sunday through Tuesday night will see an overall change in the upper level pattern as the strong ridge axis shifts to the east and a shortwave trough ejects out of the southern Plains. A weak surface low will form over the Ozarks and quickly drive a weak front into the area Sunday afternoon. As through parent trough pulls further to the northeast, the overall flow regime will turn parallel to the frontal boundary Sunday night into Monday, and this will result in the front stalling somewhere in the Lower Mississippi Valley. The end result is that a focusing mechanism for diurnally induced convection will be in place to start out the week. The convective activity on Sunday will be more isolated and mainly confined to the northwest third of the forecast area where height falls are greatest and overall lift is maximized. However, this stalled front will combine with another weak upper level impulse sliding through on the back of the deep layer southwest flow pattern on Monday to produce scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. This will be the highest PoP day and overall rain chances have increased by around 10 percent to 50 to 60 percent for Monday afternoon. Tuesday will see lower PoP in the afternoon hours due to a lack of forcing aloft. Any convection that forms will be more isolated and short lived. Fortunately, the lack of decent shear in the area will keep any convection on the weaker side as well. Temperatures will be warmer than average to start out the period on Saturday and Sunday as highs continue to warm into the mid to upper 80s and lows only cool to around 70, but a return to more normal temperatures is expected on Monday and Tuesday in response to increased convective coverage and cloud development. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 A dry high pressure system passing over the area will keep skies clear and VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue to veer to the southeast this afternoon and remain out of the southeast into tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Winds are expected to remain onshore through the weekend and into early next week as surface ridging dominates the eastern Gulf. A weak front will also slide toward the waters early next week, but the front should stall well inland. The only impact from the front will be a slightly increased risk of thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday. The onshore winds will also increase by Friday and remain elevated in the 15 to 20 knot range through Sunday as a low pressure system intensifies in the southern Plains. Due to the long fetch of the onshore flow regime in the Gulf, significant wave heights will also increase to around 6 feet in the outer open Gulf waters as the combination of wind waves and swell work together to produce rougher conditions. Winds will start to relax on Monday as the low pulls away and the pressure gradient over the waters eases. Seas will slowly improve as the swell train dissipates with seas declining from 5 to 6 feet to 3 to 4 feet by Monday night. Exercise caution headlines will be needed for the weekend in the open Gulf waters, but the more protected sounds and lakes should see better boating conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 50 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 54 84 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 51 81 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 57 81 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 54 76 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 77 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1227034 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 16.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Cold front stalling well offshore this morning but providing very nice, cool dry conditions to our area today and Thu. The front will pivot and move back north by late Wed where it will orient north to south bisecting the area where it will slowly wash out eventually. No issues expected in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Another front should move into east TX to northern LA/MS by the weekend and slow or stall. Storm complexes are expected to develop and move east from this front Sunday. This will be the best chance for rainfall over the next several days. Depending on where the front stalls, moisture profiles look to support continued development of sh/ts along it into the new week. But where it stalls is questionable at the moment. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 A dry high pressure system passing over the area will keep skies clear and VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue to veer to the southeast this afternoon and remain out of the southeast into tomorrow. PG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Cold front is stalling well offshore this morning providing northerly winds at 10-15kt. These winds will shift to easterly early today and continue shifting to a SE direction by late today rising to around 15kt over the weekend. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm could move over the coastal waters Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 53 82 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 57 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 56 81 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 62 82 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 57 77 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 52 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1227001 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 16.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 353 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Cold front stalling well offshore this morning but providing very nice, cool dry conditions to our area today and Thu. The front will pivot and move back north by late Wed where it will orient north to south bisecting the area where it will slowly wash out eventually. No issues expected in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Another front should move into east TX to northern LA/MS by the weekend and slow or stall. Storm complexes are expected to develop and move east from this front Sunday. This will be the best chance for rainfall over the next several days. Depending on where the front stalls, moisture profiles look to support continued development of sh/ts along it into the new week. But where it stalls is questionable at the moment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Cold front is stalling well offshore this morning providing northerly winds at 10-15kt. These winds will shift to easterly early today and continue shifting to a SE direction by late today rising to around 15kt over the weekend. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm could move over the coastal waters Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 78 53 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 79 57 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 78 56 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 78 62 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 75 57 77 65 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 77 52 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1226972 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 16.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1109 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Deep layer ridging will build into the area tonight and remain in place through the entire short term period. The end result will be increasing subsidence throughout the atmospheric column, a lack of cloud development, and warming temperatures. Overall model spread for temperatures is small through the period, and confidence is high in the temperature forecast. Highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, or near average. Temperatures at night will cool more dramatically tonight and tomorrow night as drier air in the low levels lingers. This will allow lows both nights to cool into the upper 40s and 50s. By Thursday night, a persistent return flow will help increase low level moisture and push overnight lows around 10 degrees into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather will be in place through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 The deep layer ridge axis will remain in place on Friday before shifting toward the eastern seaboard on Saturday. As the ridge shifts to the east a trough axis will push out of the Four Corners region and into the southern Plains and Texas. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the day on Friday with partly cloudy skies expected by the late afternoon hours. However, conditions will remain dry due to the presence of a strong temperature inversion around 850mb. Temperatures will also continue to warm in response to both the onshore flow from the Gulf and ample deep layer subsidence. Highs will easily warm into the mid to upper 80s, and a few locations may touch 90 Friday afternoon. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of seeing highs warm into the lower 90s, but have opted to not include that in the forecast package. Friday night will see overcast skies develop as the ample low level moisture becomes trapped beneath an elevated inversion and conditions will be very muggy as lows only cool to around 70 degrees. Boundary layer flow will be strong enough to prohibit fog formation. On Saturday, a mostly cloudy sky is expected with cloud development in the form of a broad strato-cumulus field across the region. Highs will be somewhat tempered by this cloud development, but readings will still warm into the low to mid 80s. Another round of overcast skies as the stratus builds down in relation to temperatures cooling back to around 70 degrees Saturday night is also expected. Throughout this period, conditions will remain dry due to the continued presence of very dry air in the mid-levels and the strong capping inversion around 5000 feet. Sunday and Monday will see a more unsettled pattern take hold as the ridge axis slides further to the east and a fairly vigorous shortwave trough takes on a negative tilt over the southern Plains and ejects into the Ozarks. As this occurs, a jet streak over the Lower Mississippi Valley will develop and this will support increased deep layer lift and the prospect of convective development by Sunday afternoon. The best forcing and highest threat of some convective development will be confined to areas west of I-55 and north of I-10 Sunday afternoon, and fortunately, shear profiles are not supportive of severe thunderstorm activity. The trough axis and an associated front will slide through the region Sunday night into Monday morning, and this will be the peak time for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to pass through the region. Shear profiles will remain weak, so any convective activity will remain below severe limits. At most, some brief heavy downpours, locally gusty winds, and lightning strikes will accompany the thunderstorms as they pass through. Rain chances will diminish Monday afternoon into Monday night as weak subsidence develops in the wake of the passing trough. Temperatures will also remain above average into Monday with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s and lows remaining in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overall, forecast confidence is higher than average in the extended period as model consistency is high. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Overall favorable flying weather with VFR conditions expected throughout the cycle. Winds will be in transition from a light northerly direction to a light east and southeast direction with time. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Offshore flow tonight and tomorrow will shift back to an onshore component on Thursday. This onshore flow will then persist through the upcoming weekend. Overall, the wind field will remain light with winds of 10 to 15 knots in place for most of the period, but a tightening pressure gradient over the weekend in relation to a deepening low over the southern Plains will increase onshore flow to between 15 and 20 knots . These conditions will allow seas to climb to between 3 and 6 feet over the weekend with the highest seas in the outer waters beyond 20nm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 47 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 79 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 80 48 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 78 58 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 79 51 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 79 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
