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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1274032 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 533 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Overall, the trend again for another day is rather on the dry side when compared to the forecast a couple of days ago. Upstream we are watching a fairly robust upper level trough dig across the Mid MS River Valley, which will allow for an ULL to drop southward into the Tennessee River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. Up stream we continue to watch a front over the Red River Valley, which should settle across the region later tonight. Although today looks a bit lackluster in terms of QPF, a nonzero convective chance will be there with the highest POPs residing over the MS Gulf Coast. Rain chances do increase overnight as the front begins to set up along the coast. However, given this isn`t the best opportunity over land, POPs are a bit more modest than others during the afternoon hours. That said, with the diurnal cycle, there will be some night time showers and storms over the Gulf waters. Drier air begins to filter southward behind the front to start the new workweek. This will help limit "feels like" temperatures and no heat headlines look to be needed through the short term period. Sadly, this will keep any precip chances fairly limited and mostly offshore through the period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 By Tuesday evening, a longwave trough will be over much of Canada, while the upper ridge will be centered near Las Vegas with an upper trough from the upper Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi-Alabama coast. At the surface, a weak front may be close to Interstate 20, while high pressure is over much of the Gulf. Precipitable water values Tuesday evening will be around the 25th percentile (1.6 inches), and with low level flow becoming southerly, but very weak, those moisture levels won`t really start to increase until the end of the week. By Friday, moisture will be around 2 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile. Probably will not be much more than isolated convection during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday, firing off along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Areal coverage will probably increase a little bit on Friday, but still not much more than 30 to 40 percent at best. High temperatures are expected to top out in the middle 90s for the back half of next week, with heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. (RW) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. Convection this afternoon will likely remain over the eastern terminals (GPT). However, later tonight and early Sunday convection will be possible for most terminals outside of MCB. In convection expect brief reductions to MVFR or maybe lower in the strongest convection. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon and decrease once we decouple after sunset tonight. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots through the weekend across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1274019 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Overall, the trend again for another day is rather on the dry side when compared to the forecast a couple of days ago. Upstream we are watching a fairly robust upper level trough dig across the Mid MS River Valley, which will allow for an ULL to drop southward into the Tennessee River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. Up stream we continue to watch a front over the Red River Valley, which should settle across the region later tonight. Although today looks a bit lackluster in terms of QPF, a nonzero convective chance will be there with the highest POPs residing over the MS Gulf Coast. Rain chances do increase overnight as the front begins to set up along the coast. However, given this isn`t the best opportunity over land, POPs are a bit more modest than others during the afternoon hours. That said, with the diurnal cycle, there will be some night time showers and storms over the Gulf waters. Drier air begins to filter southward behind the front to start the new workweek. This will help limit "feels like" temperatures and no heat headlines look to be needed through the short term period. Sadly, this will keep any precip chances fairly limited and mostly offshore through the period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 By Tuesday evening, a longwave trough will be over much of Canada, while the upper ridge will be centered near Las Vegas with an upper trough from the upper Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi-Alabama coast. At the surface, a weak front may be close to Interstate 20, while high pressure is over much of the Gulf. Precipitable water values Tuesday evening will be around the 25th percentile (1.6 inches), and with low level flow becoming southerly, but very weak, those moisture levels won`t really start to increase until the end of the week. By Friday, moisture will be around 2 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile. Probably will not be much more than isolated convection during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday, firing off along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Areal coverage will probably increase a little bit on Friday, but still not much more than 30 to 40 percent at best. High temperatures are expected to top out in the middle 90s for the back half of next week, with heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. (RW) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually increase a bit, especially along the coastal terminals. Otherwise, GPT has the best potential for convection Saturday afternoon...covered with PROBs for now. Brief reductions and gusty winds will be possible in and around convection during the afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots through the weekend across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274005 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hazardous heat will continue to affect the area this afternoon mainly for areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor where afternoon heat index values will generally peak around 110 degrees and a heat advisory remains in effect. Tomorrow will be similar, though the current forecast calls for heat index values to be a couple degrees lower, causing the peak values to come in just below heat advisory criteria. Given the borderline nature of tomorrow`s heat index forecast, will hold off on a heat advisory for the time being to see how this afternoon`s heat index forecast plays out and whether any adjustments to tomorrow`s forecast are necessary. The most likely location for a heat advisory tomorrow would once again be across areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor. On Sunday a weak "cold" front will drop into the local area. With the upper level trough associated with this front forecast to remain well north of the local area, the front itself is not likely to move all the way into the Gulf or result in a significant airmass change. Rather, the surface boundary will likely stall either near the coast or over the local area, providing a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms wherever it stalls. While rain chances will be relatively high on Sunday (mainly in the 50 to 70 percent range), overall rain amounts are forecast to be low, with most places likely to see less than a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 In the wake of Sunday`s "cold" front, slightly drier air will move into the area for the first 2-3 days of the work week. This should keep afternoon heat index values more in the "uncomfortable" 100-105 degree range rather than the "hazardous to your health if precautions aren`t taken" range. The drier air will also allow overnight lows to fall to near normal levels for a couple days with afternoon temperatures rising a couple degrees above normal given the low cloud cover across the area. Moving into the second half of the week, upper level high pressure will breakdown as a trough moves into the upper/middle Mississippi valley. With the local area situated on the western periphery of low level high pressure, onshore winds will bring moisture back into the area as well. This will cause afternoon heat index values to rise again, potentially reaching hazardous levels by Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will be highest (30-40%) in coastal areas where sea and lake breeze boundaries will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered convective initiation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually increase a bit, especially along the coastal terminals. Otherwise, GPT has the best potential for convection Saturday afternoon...covered with PROBs for now. Brief reductions and gusty winds will be possible in and around convection during the afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots late tonight through Sunday night across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the work week, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
