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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1284074 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 - Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range mainly over open gulf waters keeping small craft headlines posted in addition this will help to create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding. - Rain returns to the area today with the best chance of rain likely this afternoon through midday Sunday possibly impacting some Halloween Trick-or-Treating or gatherings. - Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The coastal flood advisory will remain as each high tide cycle during this king tide is causing some minor innundation along sections of the coast. These tide levels should begin to lower below coastal flood limits by Tue or Wed. The mid and upper level "swirl" seen in WV imagery over coastal TX is what`s left of Vance from the eastPAC. This will help get some sh/ts going later today as the bulk of moisture moves through. This feature won`t overstay its welcome but it will cause some aggrevation with hit and miss sh/ts for Halloween around our area. There will be some lingering showers and maybe a storm or two but most of the moderate to heavy rain should be moving out Sunday. The cloud cover will stay behind and light showers will dot the map after Sunday as the cold front approaches causing a new draw of moisture feed, stealing from the departing system. The cold front is moving at a good pace through east TX by Tuesday. No severe storms are expected with the first of these two systems with the exception of the coastal waters, but the jury is still out on the cold front itself. The front should begin moving through the area Tuesday night. The main sfc low and short wave will be departing well to the north as it pulls NE bringing the best severe wx variables with it. This stretches the southern portion of the frontal axis causing it to weaken in the absence of any other low developing along the boundary. That is not to say there will be no strong/severe storms associated with it though. Numbers are moderate at best with CAPE values from 1k-1.5kj and 0-3SRH values at their highest are around 250. The problem is the highest of these values do not coincide. The highest CAPE values come in around 3p Tue while the highest SRH values come in as the front is passing late Tue night. The CAPE values are around 600j as the front is passing and this is the time with the best dynamic load. This leads us to the conclusion that there is the potential for a few strong/severe storms occurring, and the highest potential timing would be along the front as it moves through. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The front will continue to pass through the region Wednesday morning before exiting stage east by afternoon. Behind the front, northerly surface flow takes over with CAA developing over the CWFA. Aloft the broad scale H5 troughing will continue downstream with only a subtle drop in temperatures given the Pacific origin of the airmass expected to spread into the region. That said, around or maybe slightly below average Max/Min Temps Wednesday afternoon through Saturday morning. Overall, a dry trend is anticipated as the upper flow becomes a dry northwest and eventually zonal or more progressive flow going into late week and into next weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 VFR conditions through much of today. Cigs drop to around 5000ft by afternoon as isolated showers and storms develop, then lower into MVFR by this evening and finally IFR by midnight for all terminals. PROB groups will be used for precip timing. Easterly winds will increase a bit, especially coastal terminals where some gusts of 15 to 20kts will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through this weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores through this weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms today and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ070-076- 078. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ086-087. GM...None. && $$ |
