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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #1253149 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 29.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 525 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning later today into Sunday, with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 A weak shortwave was moving across Mississippi this morning with a deeper trough over the northern and central Plains States. At the surface, high pressure was centered from Ohio to the Carolinas. Low pressure was centered just northeast of Oklahoma City with a warm front into east Texas. Clouds were increasing across the area this morning, and radar indicates there could even be a few sprinkles of rain over southwest Mississippi. Temperatures were mainly in the 60s. The lead shortwave should be into Alabama by early afternoon. The main trough axis and surface low will move into the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon, which will pull a cold front across the area late tonight and Sunday morning. Precipitable water values that were near the 25th percentile this morning (0.6 inches) will increase to about the 50th percentile (0.9 inches) by sunset and the 75th percentile (1.2 inches) Sunday morning. At this point, it appears that any precipitation is likely to be post-frontal stratiform rain, with totals generally below one-half inch. Instability is extremely limited, with very little, if any thunder expected. High temperatures Sunday will be tricky depending on the timing of the frontal passage at any one location. Areas behind the front are likely to remain in the 50s, while areas ahead of the front (mainly near and south of the I-10/12 corridor) could be as warm as the lower 70s before falling off. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 We never really clear out behind the frontal passage on Sunday, with moisture levels remaining high, precipitable water values around 1.25 inches. The next trough in the progressive pattern will move across the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley Monday night and Tuesday. This trough is stronger and further south than the one in the first 24 hours of the forecast. Moisture content will also be higher, with precipitable water values around 1.6 inches, which is at or above the 90th percentile for early December. With a difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics, low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf Monday night and race northeastward. Once again, much of the rain is expected to be to the north and west of the front with only a very limited threat of thunder. There will be a band of heavy rainfall to the northwest of the low pressure track, but some uncertainty exactly where this sets up. One to three inches of rain, locally heavier, will be possible with the heavy rain band, but with the rather dry antecedent conditions, not anticipating a Flood Watch with that system as of this time. Beyond the Tuesday system, the GFS and ECMWF continue to have divergent solutions with the GFS operational runs continuing to bring another system across the area late Thursday into Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the area considerably drier until the weekend. Through the daytime hours Tuesday, most of the temperature guidance is at least in the ballpark. Have noted that the GFS/ECMWF guidance from the 29/00z run is warmer than the runs from the last couple days, and the NBM numbers will probably end up coming up several degrees in later packages. Won`t make changes for now, but have noted the trends. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Expect VFR conditions to prevail for most terminals through 06-09Z. Main focus will be increasing mid-level clouds and some light returns via KHDC radar across northern/northwestern terminals. Not anticipating any impacts other than very brief/isolated -RA thru 12z. Then, expecting more SHRA to build in from the west around daybreak, following a steady decrease in CIGs revealing prevailing MVFR with intermittent/steady IFR at times, especially KBTR to KMCB. Still expecting the eastward extent of SHRA to dissipate going beyond 18Z Sun, but could see brief -SHRA at times for central and eastern terminals in the afternoon. Main impacts will remain to be low CIG`s through the day on Sunday. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 At least in the near term, will terminate headlines as pressure gradient and cold advection has ended. We`ll be back in the hazardous conditions beginning Sunday night, with headlines necessary for much of the period from Sunday night through at least Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 57 42 55 / 70 90 40 70 BTR 54 63 46 60 / 70 80 40 70 ASD 51 70 47 64 / 20 60 20 60 MSY 59 72 54 66 / 20 60 20 60 GPT 54 71 50 67 / 10 50 10 50 PQL 49 71 47 67 / 10 40 10 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253126 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 29.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1147 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning later today into Sunday, with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 A weak shortwave was moving across Mississippi this morning with a deeper trough over the northern and central Plains States. At the surface, high pressure was centered from Ohio to the Carolinas. Low pressure was centered just northeast of Oklahoma City with a warm front into east Texas. Clouds were increasing across the area this morning, and radar indicates there could even be a few sprinkles of rain over southwest Mississippi. Temperatures were mainly in the 60s. The lead shortwave should be into Alabama by early afternoon. The main trough axis and surface low will move into the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon, which will pull a cold front across the area late tonight and Sunday morning. Precipitable water values that were near the 25th percentile this morning (0.6 inches) will increase to about the 50th percentile (0.9 inches) by sunset and the 75th percentile (1.2 inches) Sunday morning. At this point, it appears that any precipitation is likely to be post-frontal stratiform rain, with totals generally below one-half inch. Instability is extremely limited, with very little, if any thunder expected. High temperatures Sunday will be tricky depending on the timing of the frontal passage at any one location. Areas behind the front are likely to remain in the 50s, while areas ahead of the front (mainly near and south of the I-10/12 corridor) could be as warm as the lower 70s before falling off. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 We never really clear out behind the frontal passage on Sunday, with moisture levels remaining high, precipitable water values around 1.25 inches. The next trough in the progressive pattern will move across the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley Monday night and Tuesday. This trough is stronger and further south than the one in the first 24 hours of the forecast. Moisture content will also be higher, with precpitable water values around 1.6 inches, which is at or above the 90th percentile for early December. With a difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics, low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf Monday night and race northeastward. Once again, much of the rain is expected to be to the north and west of the front with only a very limited threat of thunder. There will be a band of heavy rainfall to the northwest of the low pressure track, but some uncertainty exactly where this sets up. One to three inches of rain, locally heavier, will be possible with the heavy rain band, but with the rather dry antecedent conditions, not anticipating a Flood Watch with that system as of this time. Beyond the Tuesday system, the GFS and ECMWF continue to have divergent solutions with the GFS operational runs continuing to bring another system across the area late Thursday into Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the area considerably drier until the weekend. Through the daytime hours Tuesday, most of the temperature guidance is at least in the ballpark. Have noted that the GFS/ECMWF guidance from the 29/00z run is warmer than the runs from the last couple days, and the NBM numbers will probably end up coming up several degrees in later packages. Won`t make changes for now, but have noted the trends. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR expected through most of the forecast period. MVFR conditions will onset late tonight as the frontal boundary moves into the area. Some potential for IFR conditions between 12z-18z Sunday, especially at KMCB and KBTR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 At least in the near term, will terminate headlines as pressure gradient and cold advection has ended. We`ll be back in the hazardous conditions beginning Sunday night, with headlines necessary for much of the period from Sunday night through at least Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 50 57 42 55 / 60 80 40 70 BTR 53 63 46 60 / 50 70 40 70 ASD 52 70 47 64 / 20 50 20 60 MSY 58 72 54 66 / 20 40 20 60 GPT 54 71 50 67 / 10 40 10 50 PQL 49 71 47 67 / 10 40 10 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253096 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 512 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 507 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday, with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A zonal flow regime will remain in place through Sunday across the Gulf South. In the low levels, the region will find itself placed between a departing high and an advancing front the next couple of days. Winds will veer to a more southeasterly direction and temperatures will warm back to more average readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday afternoon. This southeast flow off the Gulf will also bring moisture back into the region. PWATS will increase dramatically throughout the day and will be around the 75th percentile by Saturday evening. This will be most noticeably marked by a gradual lowering of the cloud deck through the day as moisture deepens. By late Saturday night into Sunday, a fast moving shortwave trough axis and the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to slide through the region. Ample deep layer forcing and moisture will support a broad area of post-frontal stratiform rainfall development from late Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall totals of a half inch to up to an inch are probable with this weekend rain event. By Sunday night, the front is expected to stall over the northern Gulf as the parent shortwave feature quickly lifts to the northeast. Mid-level flow will remain southerly to southwesterly, and this will allow for weak isentropic forcing over the cooler and more stable surface based airmass to linger through Monday morning. Skies will remain overcast and isolated light rain showers will persist over the area due to this isentropic forcing. Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will see a wide gradient with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of the front in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro, but readings also climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in coastal Mississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana. Lows will also see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the Louisiana coast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10 and lower 50s south of I-10 Sunday night. A very similar temperature spread is expected Monday into Monday night as the frontal boundary remains stalled just offshore. A much stronger southern stream system embedded within the broader zonal flow pattern will push through the area Monday into Monday night. Very strong and deep forcing will be in place as both a highly difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics develop over a region of enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A Gulf low will form on Monday beneath these favorable upper level dynamics, and this low will pass directly through the region Monday night. The isentropic forcing over the cooler surface based airmass to the north of the stationary front will also contribute to the deep layer forcing across the area. All of these factors will support widespread moderate to heavy stratiform rainfall from Monday afternoon through Monday night. PWATS are forecast to rise to daily max value of around 1.5 inches, and heavy rainfall will be a concern. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches could occur. One area of concern for any surface based convection and a low end threat of strong to severe storms could be over the eastern Gulf waters and potentially as far north as coastal Mississippi late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. This will be highly dependent on the exact track of the deepening Gulf low, so uncertainty is greater than average. However, a review of model soundings in the area indicate marginally conducive shear and instability parameters over the aforementioned time period. As more high resolution model data comes in, forecast confidence any the evolution of the low and any surface based convective threat will increase. To the immediate north of the front, mid- level lapse rates may support an isolated elevated thunderstorm within broader stratiform rain shield in coastal Louisiana, but thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Model guidance remains in good agreement that a cooler and drier airmass will quickly advect into the area on Tuesday as the Gulf low and attendant cold front sweep well east and south of the region. These conditions will linger into Wednesday as a surface high passes to the north of the area. Highs will only climb into the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon and overnight lows will easily fall below freezing along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. The cold temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This brief break in a more unsettled pattern will be short-lived as the model guidance is in decent agreement that another fast moving shortwave trough embedded with the persistent zonal flow pattern aloft will begin to impact the area on Thursday. Model spread begins to increase as we move into Friday and Friday night, and overall forecast confidence decreases dramatically. It does look like a return to a wetter period of weather will occur on Thursday and Friday, and have opted to largely stick with the NBM output for both days. This results in PoP of 40 to 60 percent over this period. Temperature spreads are also large as the positioning of a frontal boundary over the area has large spatial differences. NBM deterministic output has readings running slightly cooler than average with highs the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s, and have stuck with this for day 6 and 7 forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR through most of this taf cycle. There is some -SHRA moving into the area from the west by Sunday morning which will cause some vis levels to drop into MVFR range with a few IFR possible. Cigs should remain VFR though. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 East winds of around 20 knots will begin to ease Saturday afternoon and will remain below advisory criteria at 10 to 15 knots through Sunday afternoon. Sunday night through Tuesday will see more hazardous conditions for small craft return as a low pressure system passes through the coastal waters. Northerly winds will increase back above 20 knots and seas will rise back to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters. As high pressure briefly builds back over the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and weaken to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also subside back to 1 to 3 feet as these calmer winds take hold. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 50 58 41 / 10 60 70 40 BTR 70 55 62 46 / 10 60 70 40 ASD 69 55 70 47 / 0 20 40 30 MSY 70 60 70 53 / 0 20 40 30 GPT 67 56 71 49 / 0 10 40 30 PQL 67 54 71 49 / 0 10 30 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ550-552-555-557- 570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ552-555-557-570- 572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1253078 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 29.Nov.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1156 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days. - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday, with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A zonal flow regime will remain in place through Sunday across the Gulf South. In the low levels, the region will find itself placed between a departing high and an advancing front the next couple of days. Winds will veer to a more southeasterly direction and temperatures will warm back to more average readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday afternoon. This southeast flow off the Gulf will also bring moisture back into the region. PWATS will increase dramatically throughout the day and will be around the 75th percentile by Saturday evening. This will be most noticeably marked by a gradual lowering of the cloud deck through the day as moisture deepens. By late Saturday night into Sunday, a fast moving shortwave trough axis and the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to slide through the region. Ample deep layer forcing and moisture will support a broad area of post-frontal stratiform rainfall development from late Saturday night into Sunday. Rainfall totals of a half inch to up to an inch are probable with this weekend rain event. By Sunday night, the front is expected to stall over the northern Gulf as the parent shortwave feature quickly lifts to the northeast. Mid-level flow will remain southerly to southwesterly, and this will allow for weak isentropic forcing over the cooler and more stable surface based airmass to linger through Monday morning. Skies will remain overcast and isolated light rain showers will persist over the area due to this isentropic forcing. Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night will see a wide gradient with readings only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of the front in southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge metro, but readings also climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s in coastal Mississippi, metro New Orleans, and coastal Louisiana. Lows will also see a decent gradient with the front stalled on the Louisiana coast with readings dropping into the 40s north of I-10 and lower 50s south of I-10 Sunday night. A very similar temperature spread is expected Monday into Monday night as the frontal boundary remains stalled just offshore. A much stronger southern stream system embedded within the broader zonal flow pattern will push through the area Monday into Monday night. Very strong and deep forcing will be in place as both a highly difluent pattern aloft and favorable jet dynamics develop over a region of enhanced baroclincity in the northern Gulf. A Gulf low will form on Monday beneath these favorable upper level dynamics, and this low will pass directly through the region Monday night. The isentropic forcing over the cooler surface based airmass to the north of the stationary front will also contribute to the deep layer forcing across the area. All of these factors will support widespread moderate to heavy stratiform rainfall from Monday afternoon through Monday night. PWATS are forecast to rise to daily max value of around 1.5 inches, and heavy rainfall will be a concern. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches could occur. One area of concern for any surface based convection and a low end threat of strong to severe storms could be over the eastern Gulf waters and potentially as far north as coastal Mississippi late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. This will be highly dependent on the exact track of the deepening Gulf low, so uncertainty is greater than average. However, a review of model soundings in the area indicate marginally conducive shear and instability parameters over the aforementioned time period. As more high resolution model data comes in, forecast confidence any the evolution of the low and any surface based convective threat will increase. To the immediate north of the front, mid- level lapse rates may support an isolated elevated thunderstorm within broader stratiform rain shield in coastal Louisiana, but thunderstorm chances diminish to near zero closer to the I-10 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Model guidance remains in good agreement that a cooler and drier airmass will quickly advect into the area on Tuesday as the Gulf low and attendant cold front sweep well east and south of the region. These conditions will linger into Wednesday as a surface high passes to the north of the area. Highs will only climb into the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon and overnight lows will easily fall below freezing along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. The cold temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs only rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This brief break in a more unsettled pattern will be short-lived as the model guidance is in decent agreement that another fast moving shortwave trough embedded with the persistent zonal flow pattern aloft will begin to impact the area on Thursday. Model spread begins to increase as we move into Friday and Friday night, and overall forecast confidence decreases dramatically. It does look like a return to a wetter period of weather will occur on Thursday and Friday, and have opted to largely stick with the NBM output for both days. This results in PoP of 40 to 60 percent over this period. Temperature spreads are also large as the positioning of a frontal boundary over the area has large spatial differences. NBM deterministic output has readings running slightly cooler than average with highs the 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s, and have stuck with this for day 6 and 7 forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions will be the rule even as overall mid and high level cloud cover increases. Winds will remain gusty at over 12 knots from a general easterly component at NEW through the period due to continued thermal mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface over the warmer lake waters. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 East winds of around 20 knots will begin to ease Saturday afternoon and will remain below advisory criteria at 10 to 15 knots through Sunday afternoon. Sunday night through Tuesday will see more hazardous conditions for small craft return as a low pressure system passes through the coastal waters. Northerly winds will increase back above 20 knots and seas will rise back to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters. As high pressure briefly builds back over the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and weaken to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also subside back to 1 to 3 feet as these calmer winds take hold. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 38 66 50 58 / 0 10 60 70 BTR 42 70 55 62 / 0 10 60 70 ASD 39 69 55 70 / 0 0 20 40 MSY 50 70 60 70 / 0 0 20 40 GPT 43 67 56 71 / 0 0 10 40 PQL 37 67 54 71 / 0 0 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-555- 557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ552-555-557- 570-572-575-577. && $$ |
