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| #1273935 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 656 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 655 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for the east coast metro areas. Max temps today will hit the low-mid 90s. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow, favoring the Lake region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Sfc analyses and model data still show a semi-stationary frontal boundary stretching across the SE CONUS, while weak sfc high pressure dominates both sides of the Florida peninsula over the Gulf region and the W Atlantic. At the upper-lvls, troughiness will further deepen over the E/SE CONUS, with several short-wave impulses traveling along its base and passing over northern Florida during the next several days. Meanwhile, mid-lvl ridging lingering over the region begins to finally break down and will allow for the onset of deeper moisture filtering into SoFlo. The prevailing westerly flow will keep the best pool of moisture skewed towards the east coast. NBM and ensemble solutions raise POPs/Wx coverage along the entire east coast this afternoon into the 30-50% range for Miami-dade and Broward counties, and up to around 60 percent for Palm Beach and the Lake region. Latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today keep the Marginal Risk (at least 5%) right along the CWA boundary along the Lake region, which means that Glades, northern Hendry and even portions of northern Palm Beach counties could experience localized flooding with the heaviest downpours. Moderate to high CAPE in the 2-3K J/Kg range, DCAPE around 700 J/Kg and PWATs increasing back to around 2 inches will also increase the favorable conditions for thunderstorm activity to resume across much of SoFlo, especially over the aforementioned areas. A PVA impulse traveling along the base of the trough will move across northern/central Florida this afternoon and steeper lapse rates may also add additional support for thunderstorm activity. Pressure gradients will relax today as the high pressure ridges weaken, keeping sfc winds relatively light even in the afternoon hours. This will also increase the potential for localized flooding with slow-moving or even stationary storms. For Saturday, the major adjustment to the synoptic scenario will be a gradual shift to a more SW to S flow, which will enhance moisture advection across SoFlo. POPs jump into the 30-50% south of I-75, and 60-80% for northern areas with a more widespread thunderstorm and shower coverage expected in the afternoon/early evening hours. Temperatures this afternoon will again hit the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, with possible upper 90s over some inland locations. The Heat index values are expected to reach the 106-110F range over east coast locations for which a Heat Advisory will be in effect, mainly for the metro areas. Breezier conditions over coastal Collier county may help in preventing advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Long range model solutions depict a prevailing wetter pattern as moisture and instability continue to surge during the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds on Sunday and Monday will continue to transition from southwesterly to southerly winds, then becoming easterly by Tuesday as the W Atl ridge expands closer to SoFlo. This will shift the best chances of rain from eastern/interior areas during the weekend to western areas by mid week. Latest NBM has significantly surged in moisture advection and content across SoFlo, lingering through the rest of the work week. Model PWAts well above 2" and max POPs upwards of 90% will keep a very active weather pattern, with wettest days being Sunday and Monday attm. The added instability and upper-lvl support from passing short-wave impulses along the base of the trough aloft will increase the potential for strong storms on both days, especially around the Lake region. By Tuesday, easterly flow re-establishes and a more typical summer time pater will return with sea breezes driving convection towards interior and west coast areas each afternoon. But in general, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through basically the whole long term period. Main hazards will be lightning strikes, damaging gusty winds, large hail, and localized flooding. Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 VFR continues at all terminals through around 19-20Z. Thunderstorm activity is more likely over DJT later this afternoon with possible CIG/VIS restrictions at times for which a PROB30 is in place. The rest of the Atlantic terminals will carry VCTS and will be updated as necessary. APF has the lowest chances of restrictions as the westerly flow should keep convection away from the coastline. L/V flow will increase from the W/SW at around 10kt after 15Z, then L/V after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Moderate west-southwest winds continue through the weekend, except for afternoon periods of southerly winds at the Atlantic waters this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 78 93 79 / 40 10 50 20 West Kendall 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 40 10 Opa-Locka 96 78 94 79 / 40 20 50 30 Homestead 94 77 93 79 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 94 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 Pembroke Pines 94 79 93 79 / 50 20 60 30 West Palm Beach 94 77 93 77 / 60 30 70 20 Boca Raton 93 77 92 78 / 50 20 60 30 Naples 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273926 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 447 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for the east coast metro areas. Max temps today will hit the low-mid 90s. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow, favoring the Lake region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Sfc analyses and model data still show a semi-stationary frontal boundary stretching across the SE CONUS, while weak sfc high pressure dominates both sides of the Florida peninsula over the Gulf region and the W Atlantic. At the upper-lvls, troughiness will further deepen over the E/SE CONUS, with several short-wave impulses traveling along its base and passing over northern Florida during the next several days. Meanwhile, mid-lvl ridging lingering over the region begins to finally break down and will allow for the onset of deeper moisture filtering into SoFlo. The prevailing westerly flow will keep the best pool of moisture skewed towards the east coast. NBM and ensemble solutions raise POPs/Wx coverage along the entire east coast this afternoon into the 30-50% range for Miami-dade and Broward counties, and up to around 60 percent for Palm Beach and the Lake region. Latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today keep the Marginal Risk (at least 5%) right along the CWA boundary along the Lake region, which means that Glades, northern Hendry and even portions of northern Palm Beach counties could experience localized flooding with the heaviest downpours. Moderate to high CAPE in the 2-3K J/Kg range, DCAPE around 700 J/Kg and PWATs increasing back to around 2 inches will also increase the favorable conditions for thunderstorm activity to resume across much of SoFlo, especially over the aforementioned areas. A PVA impulse traveling along the base of the trough will move across northern/central Florida this afternoon and steeper lapse rates may also add additional support for thunderstorm activity. Pressure gradients will relax today as the high pressure ridges weaken, keeping sfc winds relatively light even in the afternoon hours. This will also increase the potential for localized flooding with slow-moving or even stationary storms. For Saturday, the major adjustment to the synoptic scenario will be a gradual shift to a more SW to S flow, which will enhance moisture advection across SoFlo. POPs jump into the 30-50% south of I-75, and 60-80% for northern areas with a more widespread thunderstorm and shower coverage expected in the afternoon/early evening hours. Temperatures this afternoon will again hit the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, with possible upper 90s over some inland locations. The Heat index values are expected to reach the 106-110F range over east coast locations for which a Heat Advisory will be in effect, mainly for the metro areas. Breezier conditions over coastal Collier county may help in preventing advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Long range model solutions depict a prevailing wetter pattern as moisture and instability continue to surge during the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Winds on Sunday and Monday will continue to transition from southwesterly to southerly winds, then becoming easterly by Tuesday as the W Atl ridge expands closer to SoFlo. This will shift the best chances of rain from eastern/interior areas during the weekend to western areas by mid week. Latest NBM has significantly surged in moisture advection and content across SoFlo, lingering through the rest of the work week. Model PWAts well above 2" and max POPs upwards of 90% will keep a very active weather pattern, with wettest days being Sunday and Monday attm. The added instability and upper-lvl support from passing short-wave impulses along the base of the trough aloft will increase the potential for strong storms on both days, especially around the Lake region. By Tuesday, easterly flow re-establishes and a more typical summer time pater will return with sea breezes driving convection towards interior and west coast areas each afternoon. But in general, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through basically the whole long term period. Main hazards will be lightning strikes, damaging gusty winds, large hail, and localized flooding. Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 VFR continues at all terminals through around 19-20Z. Thunderstorm activity is more likely over DJT later this afternoon with possible CIG/VIS restrictions at times for which a PROB30 is in place. The rest of the Atlantic terminals will carry VCTS and will be updated as necessary. APF has the lowest chances of restrictions as the westerly flow should keep convection away from the coastline. L/V flow will increase from the W/SW at around 10kt after 15Z, then L/V after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 442 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Moderate west-southwest winds continue through the weekend, except for afternoon periods of southerly winds at the Atlantic waters this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 78 93 79 / 40 10 50 20 West Kendall 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 40 10 Opa-Locka 96 78 94 79 / 40 20 50 30 Homestead 94 77 93 79 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 94 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30 Pembroke Pines 94 79 93 79 / 50 20 60 30 West Palm Beach 94 77 93 77 / 60 30 70 20 Boca Raton 93 77 92 78 / 50 20 60 30 Naples 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273913 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM this evening with possible heat index values of 106-110F, mainly for coastal metro areas and interior Collier county. Max temps today will hit the low- mid 90s. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow around the Lake region. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Florida will find itself on the back end of a positively tilted mid- level trough, currently digging south into the peninsula. However, a stout 594 dam H5 high remains centered over Cuba, keeping a stronger influence over the weather pattern in South Florida. At the surface, a stalling front is currently creeping down into northern Florida, coinciding with an area of deep moisture. Mid-level water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis indicates that there is a strong moisture gradient from north to south along the peninsula. In central and northern Florida, where scattered to widespread convection is currently ongoing, PWATs have climbed up to 2.3 to 2.4 inches, which is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. Meanwhile, recent ACARs soundings show that South Florida will still be under the influence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This drier air should keep PWATs around the 1.6 to 1.7 range, which is in the 25th to 50th percentile for this time of year. So unlike the PWATmaxxing atmosphere up north, drier air should hinder shower and storm development for most of South Florida this afternoon. The highest chances for precipitation (25% to 40%) will be around the Lake Okeechobee region, closer to the stalled front and deeper moisture. With a stronger pressure gradient in place between the surface high near the Florida Keys and the surface trough over eastern seaboard, breezy west to southwest winds will persist through most of the afternoon across the region. This looks to keep the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the immediate coast or inhibit it from forming at all, which will greatly limit forcing for convection today. Other than a few isolated showers, most areas should remain dry, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Chances of precipitation for Friday will be slightly higher, with storms looking to focus along the Atlantic breeze during the afternoon. Once again, with stronger westerly flow persisting, the sea breeze will be pinned closer to the coast. However, more guidance shows the sea breeze pushing further inland into the metro, leading to higher confidence for some isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop. Overall, the higher chances will remain near Lake Okeechobee and closer to the deeper moisture and stalled front, but activity could zipper down the sea-breeze from north to south and into Miami-Dade county. Hot temperatures will continue on Friday, with many areas seeing heat indices climbing up into the 105 to 108 F range. As a result another heat advisory may be needed for the eastern metro areas. Regardless, there will be widespread Major HeatRisk for most urban locations, affecting anyone without proper cooling and hydration. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Upper level troughing along the eastern seaboard will move off into the Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a shortwave perturbation is currently riding the monsoon high over the northern Great Plains. This feature will dig south and deepen over the midwest, with some solutions cutting off an upper low circulation just north of the Ohio River valley. This is where the forecast starts to become a little bit more uncertain, especially regarding the evolution of this system to start the next week. Ensemble cluster analysis is in agreement that anomalously deep troughing will overspread much of the eastern CONUS starting on Sunday, which should increase chances of precipitation at least for the Deep South. At the surface, this trough will induce a cold front that will push south into northern Florida through the beginning of the week, providing additional forcing and ascent for storms. This front is unlikely to make its way into South Florida, keeping the higher moisture and chances of precipitation over central Florida. There is also a signal for increased concentrations of Saharan dust to make its way into the region from the southeast. This would likely set up another situation where there is a north to south moisture gradient along the peninsula, with higher chances of precipitation closer to Lake Okeechobee and drier air hindering convection to the south. Ensemble clusters are currently split into two general solutions regarding the possible midwest upper low: a more progressive northern stream system, and a slower southern stream system. About 60% of ensemble members show the upper low tracking northeast into the Great Lakes through the middle of the week, but keeping positively tilted troughing over the South. About 40% of members show the upper low tracking further into the mid-South and slower moving. This solution would likely provide better forcing and moisture for storms in South Florida. At the surface, winds are expected to remain southwesterly as high pressure focuses over the southern Gulf. However, winds are expected to trend more southerly as the main trough axis swings through the region. After that, winds may shift east for the middle of the week as the Atlantic ridge expands westward. To sum it up, it`s a pretty low confidence forecast for the long term due to the spread in solutions for several features upstream. In general, PoPs will increase through the weekend and into next week as better moisture works into the region. The unsettled weather pattern will have better support for stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts being the main threats. The interaction of periphery mid-level SAL could possibly contribute to some severe wind gusts. Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with widespread moderate HeatRisk and isolated Major HeatRisk across most of South Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 VFR continues at all terminals through around 19-20Z. Thunderstorm activity is more likely over DJT later this afternoon with possible CIG/VIS restrictions at times for which a PROB30 is in place. The rest of the Atlantic terminals will carry VCTS and will be updated as necessary. APF has the lowest chances of restrictions as the westerly flow should keep convection away from the coastline. L/V flow will increase from the W/SW at around 10kt after 15Z, then L/V after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next several days, with periods of wind speeds near 20kt over the offshore Atlantic waters today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft, with possible 3 ft over the Atlantic offshore waters today. && .BEACHES... Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents continues today at all beaches of Collier county. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 70 30 West Kendall 94 75 92 75 / 30 10 60 20 Opa-Locka 95 78 93 79 / 30 20 70 30 Homestead 93 77 92 78 / 20 10 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 79 / 40 30 70 40 N Ft Lauderdale 93 79 91 79 / 50 30 70 40 Pembroke Pines 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 70 30 West Palm Beach 93 77 92 77 / 60 40 80 40 Boca Raton 92 77 91 78 / 50 40 70 50 Naples 91 79 91 78 / 10 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
