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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1236734 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 558 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 NEAR TERM: Partly sunny skies prevail as the area briefly dries out from scattered shower and thunderstorm activity earlier this morning. While some areas may remain dry for the rest of the day, CAMs depict a resurgence of showers and storms towards the middle to end of the afternoon period. PWATs remain at the 2 inch mark, so plenty of moisture remains through the atmospheric column. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds will all be possible within the strongest activity. With surface flow remaining more southerly to southwesterly for the next few days, the east coast metro areas will be at higher risk for showers and thunderstorms versus the past few days where the bulk of activity has remained across interior areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. The front will begin eroding and displacing the current sfc ridge over the state further to the east and into the west Atlantic. This synoptic setup will result in low-lvl winds shifting southerly or even SSW by this afternoon, with deep moisture advection bringing an increasing trend in POPs/Wx coverage for the next couple of days. High-res/CAMs solutions remain consistent in having a more widespread shower coverage starting this afternoon with 60-80 POPs for much of SoFlo, along with model PWATs up to around 2 inches. Therefore, expect a rather unsettled weather pattern to prevail with scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms possible each day. Localized heavy rain, especially over the east coast metro areas, may result in significant flooding impacts. Ensemble solutions and LPMM estimates suggest possible max accumulations around 5 inches with the heaviest downpours, especially with slow-moving storms or with terrain-anchoring. Latest SPC outlook is not showing good potential for severe storms, however, a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, especially along sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries. A similar weather scenario will continue on Thursday, but with flow likely becoming more SSW by the afternoon hours. This may help in keeping highest POPs/Wx coverage over the northern half of SoFlo and the Lake region, where latest forecast PWATs remain around the 80- 90th percentile. Therefore, expect a continuing threat for localized heavy rain resulting in urban flooding, along with strong thunderstorms. Despite the increased cloud cover and rain activity, temperatures are expected to remain around normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Model uncertainty remains fairly high as deterministic solutions keep showing a potential area of low pressure developing somewhere in the NE Gulf waters or the Florida panhandle early this weekend. If this feature materializes it may further enhance chances of showers and thunderstorm coverage across the area through the weekend. Latest NHCs Atl TWO shows a 40 percent chance of formation over the weekend. Although the forecast scenario will continue to be closely monitored, regardless of the final outcome, long range solutions remain consistent in keeping a prevailing unsettled weather pattern in place, with chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of SoFlo through Sunday. Main hazards will continue to be potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds and lightning strikes. A more typical summer pattern should gradually return early next week as the high pressure ridge strengthens over the west Atlantic and reaching into the state. SE flow will again favor interior and western areas of SoFlo for best chances of showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VCTS remain for another few hours with light and variable and mainly dry conditions expected for the remainder of the night. South-southwest winds return tomorrow morning with another chance for thunderstorms around sites. Short-fuse amendments may be necessary for sites that are directly impacted by thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Winds will shift to a more southerly flow today as surface high pressure migrates eastward into the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 89 79 87 / 30 60 30 60 West Kendall 75 89 74 87 / 30 50 30 50 Opa-Locka 79 91 79 89 / 30 60 30 60 Homestead 78 89 77 89 / 20 50 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 78 86 / 30 60 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 78 88 78 87 / 40 70 30 60 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 91 / 30 60 30 60 West Palm Beach 76 89 76 86 / 50 70 30 70 Boca Raton 77 91 77 89 / 40 70 30 70 Naples 77 87 76 86 / 50 80 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236702 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 NEAR TERM: Partly sunny skies prevail as the area briefly dries out from scattered shower and thunderstorm activity earlier this morning. While some areas may remain dry for the rest of the day, CAMs depict a resurgence of showers and storms towards the middle to end of the afternoon period. PWATs remain at the 2 inch mark, so plenty of moisture remains through the atmospheric column. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds will all be possible within the strongest activity. With surface flow remaining more southerly to southwesterly for the next few days, the east coast metro areas will be at higher risk for showers and thunderstorms versus the past few days where the bulk of activity has remained across interior areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. The front will begin eroding and displacing the current sfc ridge over the state further to the east and into the west Atlantic. This synoptic setup will result in low-lvl winds shifting southerly or even SSW by this afternoon, with deep moisture advection bringing an increasing trend in POPs/Wx coverage for the next couple of days. High-res/CAMs solutions remain consistent in having a more widespread shower coverage starting this afternoon with 60-80 POPs for much of SoFlo, along with model PWATs up to around 2 inches. Therefore, expect a rather unsettled weather pattern to prevail with scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms possible each day. Localized heavy rain, especially over the east coast metro areas, may result in significant flooding impacts. Ensemble solutions and LPMM estimates suggest possible max accumulations around 5 inches with the heaviest downpours, especially with slow-moving storms or with terrain-anchoring. Latest SPC outlook is not showing good potential for severe storms, however, a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, especially along sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries. A similar weather scenario will continue on Thursday, but with flow likely becoming more SSW by the afternoon hours. This may help in keeping highest POPs/Wx coverage over the northern half of SoFlo and the Lake region, where latest forecast PWATs remain around the 80- 90th percentile. Therefore, expect a continuing threat for localized heavy rain resulting in urban flooding, along with strong thunderstorms. Despite the increased cloud cover and rain activity, temperatures are expected to remain around normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Model uncertainty remains fairly high as deterministic solutions keep showing a potential area of low pressure developing somewhere in the NE Gulf waters or the Florida panhandle early this weekend. If this feature materializes it may further enhance chances of showers and thunderstorm coverage across the area through the weekend. Latest NHCs Atl TWO shows a 40 percent chance of formation over the weekend. Although the forecast scenario will continue to be closely monitored, regardless of the final outcome, long range solutions remain consistent in keeping a prevailing unsettled weather pattern in place, with chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of SoFlo through Sunday. Main hazards will continue to be potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds and lightning strikes. A more typical summer pattern should gradually return early next week as the high pressure ridge strengthens over the west Atlantic and reaching into the state. SE flow will again favor interior and western areas of SoFlo for best chances of showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 SCT showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the day which could result in erratic winds and brief flight restrictions. TEMPO in place for east coast sites during the 19-21Z timeframe although some adjustments may be necessary as conditions evolve. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings are expected for much of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Winds will shift to a more southerly flow today as surface high pressure migrates eastward into the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 89 78 88 / 30 60 30 60 West Kendall 75 90 74 88 / 30 50 30 60 Opa-Locka 79 91 79 90 / 30 60 30 70 Homestead 78 90 78 88 / 20 40 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 88 78 87 / 40 70 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 88 78 87 / 40 70 30 70 Pembroke Pines 80 93 80 91 / 30 60 30 70 West Palm Beach 76 89 76 86 / 40 80 40 80 Boca Raton 77 91 77 88 / 40 70 30 70 Naples 77 87 76 87 / 50 70 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236697 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1251 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. The front will begin eroding and displacing the current sfc ridge over the state further to the east and into the west Atlantic. This synoptic setup will result in low-lvl winds shifting southerly or even SSW by this afternoon, with deep moisture advection bringing an increasing trend in POPs/Wx coverage for the next couple of days. High-res/CAMs solutions remain consistent in having a more widespread shower coverage starting this afternoon with 60-80 POPs for much of SoFlo, along with model PWATs up to around 2 inches. Therefore, expect a rather unsettled weather pattern to prevail with scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms possible each day. Localized heavy rain, especially over the east coast metro areas, may result in significant flooding impacts. Ensemble solutions and LPMM estimates suggest possible max accumulations around 5 inches with the heaviest downpours, especially with slow-moving storms or with terrain-anchoring. Latest SPC outlook is not showing good potential for severe storms, however, a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, especially along sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries. A similar weather scenario will continue on Thursday, but with flow likely becoming more SSW by the afternoon hours. This may help in keeping highest POPs/Wx coverage over the northern half of SoFlo and the Lake region, where latest forecast PWATs remain around the 80- 90th percentile. Therefore, expect a continuing threat for localized heavy rain resulting in urban flooding, along with strong thunderstorms. Despite the increased cloud cover and rain activity, temperatures are expected to remain around normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Model uncertainty remains fairly high as deterministic solutions keep showing a potential area of low pressure developing somewhere in the NE Gulf waters or the Florida panhandle early this weekend. If this feature materializes it may further enhance chances of showers and thunderstorm coverage across the area through the weekend. Latest NHCs Atl TWO shows a 40 percent chance of formation over the weekend. Although the forecast scenario will continue to be closely monitored, regardless of the final outcome, long range solutions remain consistent in keeping a prevailing unsettled weather pattern in place, with chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of SoFlo through Sunday. Main hazards will continue to be potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds and lightning strikes. A more typical summer pattern should gradually return early next week as the high pressure ridge strengthens over the west Atlantic and reaching into the state. SE flow will again favor interior and western areas of SoFlo for best chances of showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 SCT showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the day which could result in erratic winds and brief flight restrictions. TEMPO in place for east coast sites during the 19-21Z timeframe although some adjustments may be necessary as conditions evolve. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings are expected for much of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Winds will shift to a more southerly flow today as surface high pressure migrates eastward into the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 89 78 88 / 30 60 30 60 West Kendall 75 90 74 88 / 30 50 30 60 Opa-Locka 79 91 79 90 / 30 60 30 70 Homestead 78 90 78 88 / 20 40 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 88 78 87 / 40 70 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 88 78 87 / 40 70 30 70 Pembroke Pines 80 93 80 91 / 30 60 30 70 West Palm Beach 76 89 76 86 / 40 80 40 80 Boca Raton 77 91 77 88 / 40 70 30 70 Naples 77 87 76 87 / 50 70 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236683 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 722 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. The front will begin eroding and displacing the current sfc ridge over the state further to the east and into the west Atlantic. This synoptic setup will result in low-lvl winds shifting southerly or even SSW by this afternoon, with deep moisture advection bringing an increasing trend in POPs/Wx coverage for the next couple of days. High-res/CAMs solutions remain consistent in having a more widespread shower coverage starting this afternoon with 60-80 POPs for much of SoFlo, along with model PWATs up to around 2 inches. Therefore, expect a rather unsettled weather pattern to prevail with scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms possible each day. Localized heavy rain, especially over the east coast metro areas, may result in significant flooding impacts. Ensemble solutions and LPMM estimates suggest possible max accumulations around 5 inches with the heaviest downpours, especially with slow-moving storms or with terrain-anchoring. Latest SPC outlook is not showing good potential for severe storms, however, a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, especially along sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries. A similar weather scenario will continue on Thursday, but with flow likely becoming more SSW by the afternoon hours. This may help in keeping highest POPs/Wx coverage over the northern half of SoFlo and the Lake region, where latest forecast PWATs remain around the 80- 90th percentile. Therefore, expect a continuing threat for localized heavy rain resulting in urban flooding, along with strong thunderstorms. Despite the increased cloud cover and rain activity, temperatures are expected to remain around normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Model uncertainty remains fairly high as deterministic solutions keep showing a potential area of low pressure developing somewhere in the NE Gulf waters or the Florida panhandle early this weekend. If this feature materializes it may further enhance chances of showers and thunderstorm coverage across the area through the weekend. Latest NHCs Atl TWO shows a 40 percent chance of formation over the weekend. Although the forecast scenario will continue to be closely monitored, regardless of the final outcome, long range solutions remain consistent in keeping a prevailing unsettled weather pattern in place, with chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of SoFlo through Sunday. Main hazards will continue to be potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds and lightning strikes. A more typical summer pattern should gradually return early next week as the high pressure ridge strengthens over the west Atlantic and reaching into the state. SE flow will again favor interior and western areas of SoFlo for best chances of showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 SCT showers and thunderstorms possible throughout the day which could result in erratic winds and brief flight restrictions. Outside of storms, winds becoming SE 10-15 kts after 15Z across the east coast terminals. An afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is expected at APF. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings are expected for much of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Winds will shift to a more southerly flow today as surface high pressure migrates eastward into the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 89 78 / 80 30 60 30 West Kendall 89 75 90 74 / 80 30 50 30 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 79 / 80 30 60 30 Homestead 89 78 90 78 / 80 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 78 / 80 40 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 88 78 / 90 40 70 30 Pembroke Pines 92 80 93 80 / 80 30 60 30 West Palm Beach 88 76 89 76 / 90 40 80 40 Boca Raton 91 77 91 77 / 90 40 70 30 Naples 88 77 87 76 / 80 50 70 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236663 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 307 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. The front will begin eroding and displacing the current sfc ridge over the state further to the east and into the west Atlantic. This synoptic setup will result in low-lvl winds shifting southerly or even SSW by this afternoon, with deep moisture advection bringing an increasing trend in POPs/Wx coverage for the next couple of days. High-res/CAMs solutions remain consistent in having a more widespread shower coverage starting this afternoon with 60-80 POPs for much of SoFlo, along with model PWATs up to around 2 inches. Therefore, expect a rather unsettled weather pattern to prevail with scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms possible each day. Localized heavy rain, especially over the east coast metro areas, may result in significant flooding impacts. Ensemble solutions and LPMM estimates suggest possible max accumulations around 5 inches with the heaviest downpours, especially with slow-moving storms or with terrain-anchoring. Latest SPC outlook is not showing good potential for severe storms, however, a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out, especially along sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries. A similar weather scenario will continue on Thursday, but with flow likely becoming more SSW by the afternoon hours. This may help in keeping highest POPs/Wx coverage over the northern half of SoFlo and the Lake region, where latest forecast PWATs remain around the 80- 90th percentile. Therefore, expect a continuing threat for localized heavy rain resulting in urban flooding, along with strong thunderstorms. Despite the increased cloud cover and rain activity, temperatures are expected to remain around normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Model uncertainty remains fairly high as deterministic solutions keep showing a potential area of low pressure developing somewhere in the NE Gulf waters or the Florida panhandle early this weekend. If this feature materializes it may further enhance chances of showers and thunderstorm coverage across the area through the weekend. Latest NHCs Atl TWO shows a 40 percent chance of formation over the weekend. Although the forecast scenario will continue to be closely monitored, regardless of the final outcome, long range solutions remain consistent in keeping a prevailing unsettled weather pattern in place, with chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of SoFlo through Sunday. Main hazards will continue to be potential for heavy rain, strong gusty winds and lightning strikes. A more typical summer pattern should gradually return early next week as the high pressure ridge strengthens over the west Atlantic and reaching into the state. SE flow will again favor interior and western areas of SoFlo for best chances of showers and thunderstorms. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Brief periods of MVFR/VFR conditions are possible at the Atlantic terminals with AMD/TEMPOS possible through 15Z. Light and variable winds will become generally SSE today at 10-12kt after 15Z, along with possible periods of reduced vis and cigs under thunderstorms. APF may again experience a Gulf breeze after 17Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Winds will shift to a more southerly flow today as surface high pressure migrates eastward into the western Atlantic. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 89 78 / 80 30 60 30 West Kendall 89 75 90 74 / 80 30 50 30 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 79 / 80 30 60 30 Homestead 89 78 90 78 / 80 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 78 / 80 40 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 88 78 / 90 40 70 30 Pembroke Pines 92 80 93 80 / 80 30 60 30 West Palm Beach 88 76 89 76 / 90 40 80 40 Boca Raton 91 77 91 77 / 90 40 70 30 Naples 88 77 87 76 / 80 50 70 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236659 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 148 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 NEAR TERM: Unsettled conditions have returned today with showers and thunderstorms forming across South Florida early this afternoon, especially along our east coast and impacting terminal sites. With the daytime heating and increase in Atlantic sea breeze, it has fueled the available moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.1"). Passing storms have brought gusty, erratic winds, up to 25KT, lightning, and minimal rainfall (0.1-0.25"). There is potential with any stronger storms, and any slow-moving showers, for heavier rainfall and localized flooding, especially in urban areas. As the day progresses, the sea breeze and boundary convective activity will favor the interior and near Lake Okeechobee. Some models continue to support late afternoon and evening activity across the northeastern metro, especially in Palm Beach County. However, this will depend on how the Lake Okeechobee and sea breezes impact the ongoing convection, if any is still available later in the day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Conditions across South Florida will remain unsettled this week, with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Surface high over the western Atlantic ocean will continue to promote light southeasterly flow across the region today, and convective development will be (mostly) driven by local mesoscale processes, with daytime heating and sea breeze and other boundary collisions playing a pivotal role. Mid-level troughing and an associated surface front are developing across the Midwest, and will gradually pull the oft-mentioned tropical upper tropospheric trough (or TUTT) northward towards the Carolinas. However, a pocket of 500mb vorticity could still linger across south-central Florida on Tuesday, providing additional support for strong thunderstorms to form in the late afternoon. Some of the CAMs have begun to trend eastward with the late afternoon activity, potentially impacting the East Coast metro and producing very localized street flooding with any heavy downpours. As the mid-level trough moves eastward and the associated front moves over the southeast US, the wind flow across the Florida peninsula will veer in response, becoming more southerly to southwesterly by Wednesday. As a result, deep moisture will return to the region, with PWATs climbing into 1.9-2.1 inch range, and convective activity each afternoon becoming more concentrated across northern and northeastern portions of the CWA instead of interior and southwest Florida. Activity will still be mostly driven by mesoscale processes, with heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds associated with any of the stronger storms. 00Z HREF LPMM hints at some pockets of 4-5 inches of rain across rural Palm Beach and Broward counties, but conditions will need to be closely monitored as the exact location of these precip maxes can shift from forecast to reality, and such rainfall accumulations could result in localized flooding. High temperatures will remain typical for this time of year as they will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. Heat indices across the interior and southwest Florida could peak in the low 100s. Balmy conditions overnight, with lows in the upper 70s and upper 80s along the coasts, and low 70s across the interior. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Uncertainty increases midweek and into the holiday weekend as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across the southeast U.S. later this week, pushing the surface high further south and away from the peninsula. Deep moisture will return to the area as southerly flow prevails, with PWATs climbing above 2 inches each day, and model guidance agrees in keeping elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms across northeastern portions of the CWA, potentially impacting the East Coast metro each afternoon through the long term period. Model QPF also hints at heavy downpours with some of these showers and thunderstorms each evening. The source of uncertainty for this period comes in the form of a potential disturbance being hinted at by some of the deterministic guidance, which has "something" developing somewhere over the Gulf waters, or the Florida panhandle, or even over the Gulf stream... basically somewhere along the stalled front, near the end of the work week. Model guidance today looks even more meager than previous runs, really highlighting how the lack of consensus or any type of trend continue to complicate the forecast process. If a system does develop, it could potentially help enhance the aforementioned chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region, and elevate the potential for severe and flooding impacts. This solution will need to be monitored further as the week progresses. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Brief periods of MVFR/VFR conditions are possible at the Atlantic terminals with AMD/TEMPOS possible through 15Z. Light and variable winds will become generally SSE today at 10-12kt after 15Z, along with possible periods of reduced vis and cigs under thunderstorms. APF may again experience a Gulf breeze after 17Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds prevail today as surface high remains in place over the western Atlantic. This feature could shift southward later this week, resulting in more southerly flow across all local waters by late Wednesday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 89 78 / 80 30 60 30 West Kendall 89 75 90 74 / 80 30 50 30 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 79 / 80 30 60 30 Homestead 89 78 90 78 / 80 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 78 / 80 40 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 88 78 / 90 40 70 30 Pembroke Pines 92 80 93 80 / 80 30 60 30 West Palm Beach 88 76 89 76 / 90 40 80 40 Boca Raton 91 77 91 77 / 90 40 70 30 Naples 88 77 87 76 / 80 50 70 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
