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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1256586 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 246 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 240 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Fog is forecast to develop once again early this morning, primarily across SW Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. Some of this fog could become locally dense. - Daytime temperatures will remain above average for the remainder of the work week but below any record values. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Persistent upper level ridging will remain in place over the southeastern United States, promoting generally dry and benign conditions across the area through the period. This ridge will maintain a mostly dry air mass and continued subsidence over the region, limiting chances for rainfall. That being said, easterly surface flow could advect enough low level moisture for some stray showers over the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast later this afternoon. Areas of patchy fog could be possible across the interior once again early this morning given light winds and sufficient low-level moisture. SREF and HREF guidance suggests coverage could become dense in nature in some spots over the interior, with visibility in some areas dropping below one quarter of a mile at times, resulting in hazardous commuting conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 The benign weather conditions will extend into the weekend, with near zero rain chances and warm temperatures forecast for Saturday and Sunday. However, a pattern change approaches as deep longwave troughing develops over the Rockies and gradually erodes the ridge on its way east. An associated front will drop along the peninsula early next week, bringing lower temperatures to the region. Highs will max out in the low 70s, while lows could dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s near the interior and in the lower 60s along the East Coast. Guidance at this time shows meager moisture available ahead of the front, which would make for a fairly dry frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible at the start of the period as patchy fog begins to develop. There is high confidence of impacts for KAPF and KTMB, while confidence remains low for other sites, and we kept mention of FG/BR out of their TAFs. Light and variable winds overnight becoming southeasterly at 5-10 knots. The Gulf breeze will develop later this afternoon, with winds at KAPF shifting from the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 A light to gentle breeze is expected across the local waters for the next several days as high pressure remains the area. A few isolated showers are possible at times but chances will remain low each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 69 80 70 / 20 0 0 0 West Kendall 82 64 81 65 / 20 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 68 82 68 / 20 0 0 0 Homestead 81 68 81 68 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 69 79 70 / 20 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 69 80 70 / 20 0 0 10 Pembroke Pines 82 67 81 68 / 20 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 69 80 69 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 81 69 81 70 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 82 65 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1256573 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1236 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Fog is forecast to develop once again late tonight into Thursday, primarily across SW Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region. Some of this fog could become locally dense. - Daytime temperatures will remain above average for the remainder of the work week but below any record values. && .UPDATE... Issued at 125 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 The 18z MFL RAOB, ACARS data from area airports, and GOES-E derived soundings depict an atmosphere that continues to be dominated by deep-layer ridging with a continued subsidence inversion within the 600-780mb layer. A layer of slightly higher moisture exists just underneath of the inversion and again at roughly 3,000 feet which will once again support the potential of some capped cumulus across the region this afternoon. The convergence of the Atlantic and Gulf diurnally driven sea-breezes will result in the potential of isolated shower activity across the inland of the southern half of the peninsula this afternoon. With the axis of surface ridging over the eastern Gulf and the decoupling of the boundary layer overnight, conditions could prove to be conducive for dense fog once again tonight. HREF probabilities of visibilities below half a mile remain 50-70% (medium range) across coastal southwestern Florida late tonight through daybreak on Thursday. While HREF visibility probabilities and the actual materialization of dense fog may not line up perfectly, it hints that there certainly is the potential for patches (perhaps even areas) of dense fog across the western half of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1208 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 Large scale ridging remains spread over most of the south-central and southeastern U.S., which will maintain a quiet weather pattern and predominantly dry conditions in place. Temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. With this rinse and repeat pattern in place, fog development becomes the focus again in the short term period. Interior and Southwest Florida will continue to be the focus area for fog development as radiational cooling looks to be maximized in those areas. Can`t rule out some pockets of dense fog forming closer to the east coast metro though either. The latest HREF guidance gives a 50-70% chance for interior and Southwest Florida to see fog development that results in visibilities falling to a half mile or less between 2-9 AM and about 20-30% for the western edges of the east coast metro. Therefore, Dense Fog Advisories may become necessary again, which will be monitored closely. Otherwise, expect a calm and pleasant couple of days in this mid-to-late week period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 The stagnant weather pattern will persist through the rest of the week and into this weekend as the ridging pattern continues to amplify over the Eastern Seaboard and the western Atlantic waters, which is preventing troughs and frontal boundaries from pushing southwards and into the South Florida region. As a result, quiet weather will be ongoing at least through Saturday and perhaps most of Sunday. Long range ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS and AI ensembles) continues to hint at the next frontal boundary approaching the region in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GEFS suite of members seems to be the most progressive, although 50% or more of its members don`t have the front crossing into the South Florida region until Sunday night or Monday morning. Other ensembles don`t have nearly as many of their members pushing the front through until early Monday or Monday afternoon, so as of now a solution with the front arriving Monday morning is in the forecast. Regardless of how quickly this frontal boundary approaches, it does appear to be another predominantly dry one as it weakens in its approach. Current 90th percentile QPF for this time frame (Sun- Mon) is only up to 0.25", so no impactful weather is expected through the forecast period. High temperatures each day through the weekend will reach the low to mid 80s. Once the front arrives, temperatures will drop back into the 70s for a couple days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible at the start of the period as patchy fog begins to develop. There is high confidence of impacts for KAPF and KTMB, while confidence remains low for other sites, and we kept mention of FG/BR out of their TAFs. Light and variable winds overnight becoming southeasterly at 5-10 knots. The Gulf breeze will develop later this afternoon, with winds at KAPF shifting from the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 Light to gentle winds continue across the local waters through mid- week and likely into the late week period as high pressure presides over the area. Seas are expected mostly at 2 feet or less across all local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 70 80 70 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 82 65 81 65 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 82 68 81 68 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 82 68 81 69 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 80 69 79 70 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 70 79 70 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 81 67 81 68 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 81 68 81 69 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 81 69 81 70 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 82 65 82 64 / 10 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
