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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1181059 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area, with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially producing gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat index values at or below 100 degrees. The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. The 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. This benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea-breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 88 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 West Kendall 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 40 50 Opa-Locka 75 89 75 90 / 30 50 40 50 Homestead 75 89 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 75 87 76 86 / 30 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 40 50 Pembroke Pines 75 91 76 91 / 30 40 40 50 West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 30 40 40 40 Boca Raton 74 88 75 88 / 30 40 40 50 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181046 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:30 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 126 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area, with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially producing gusty winds and small hail. Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat index values at or below 100 degrees. The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 88 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 West Kendall 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 40 50 Opa-Locka 75 89 75 90 / 30 50 40 50 Homestead 75 89 75 88 / 30 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 75 87 76 86 / 30 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 40 50 Pembroke Pines 75 91 76 91 / 30 40 40 50 West Palm Beach 73 87 73 87 / 30 40 40 40 Boca Raton 74 88 75 88 / 30 40 40 50 Naples 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181035 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1012 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 959 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A diffuse boundary sits across South Florida this morning as showers and thunderstorms continue to fire off over the Florida Keys and the local Atlantic waters. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms could increase over our area later this afternoon along sea breeze boundary collisions; a few of these thunderstorms could be strong in nature, with gusty winds and small hail, but overall chances for severe weather are lower than yesterday given weaker dynamic support. With the boundary over the area, winds over the northern portion of the CWA have become WNW, while southernmost portions of the region experience WSW flow. This has allowed for somewhat milder temperatures across the area this morning (as compared to the last few days), with most sites experiencing temperatures in the mid- upper 80s and heat indices below 95 F. Although conditions will continue to warm up during the day, we do not expect to hit heat advisory criteria today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday. Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft. Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area). The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 18-19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 75 / 50 30 50 50 West Kendall 94 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 89 75 / 50 30 50 40 Homestead 94 75 89 75 / 30 30 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 75 87 76 / 60 30 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 74 87 75 / 60 40 40 40 Pembroke Pines 94 75 91 76 / 50 30 40 40 West Palm Beach 92 73 87 73 / 40 30 40 40 Boca Raton 92 74 88 75 / 50 30 40 40 Naples 90 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181023 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 734 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday. Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft. Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area). The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze intruding after 18-19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly winds possible tomorrow across much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 75 / 50 30 50 50 West Kendall 94 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 89 75 / 50 30 50 40 Homestead 94 75 89 75 / 30 30 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 75 87 76 / 60 30 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 74 87 75 / 60 40 40 40 Pembroke Pines 94 75 91 76 / 50 30 40 40 West Palm Beach 92 73 87 73 / 40 30 40 40 Boca Raton 92 74 88 75 / 50 30 40 40 Naples 90 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180988 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 219 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A positively-oriented mid-lvl trough will remain draped across the western Atlantic through the short-term period, with several lower amplitude shortwaves pivoting southward into our area on its western periphery. The main surface feature of interest will be relatively weak low pressure positioned just northeast of the area, and the weak cold front associated with this system which will gradually push through our area today into Tuesday. Given the proximity of the weak synoptic boundary, weak ascent ahead of the trough, and potentially the east coast sea breeze, expect scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon with the focus largely being the east coast given the sea breeze and orientation of the trough. The convective parameter space is not as conducive as yesterday due to weaker mid-lvl lapse rates and weaker deep-layer shear, but another day of rather warm temperatures will result in steep low-lvl lapse rates/high DCAPE values. Consequently individual cell wet microbursts will remain a threat along with small hail due to seasonably cool air aloft. Although temperatures will still be well above average in the prefrontal regime (highs in the low to mid 90s), slightly drier air should keep us below heat headline criteria (although maximum heat indices will exceed 100 degrees over most of the area). The front will largely have worked its way through the area by Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east- northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May heatwave. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 By the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of the region over the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow over South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Thus with a lack of synoptic support, mesoscale patterns such as the sea-breeze circulation will dictate temperatures as well as the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible but cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. Benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea- breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the AM hours although a few showers could be possible near the SE terminals. There will be a chance of restrictions this afternoon in thunderstorms over the east coast terminals beginning around 18Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend W-SW this morning, although a shift to the E-SE will be possible along the east coast terminals this afternoon although confidence in the sea breeze is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Winds will trend more W-NW today as a weak front crosses the area and then more easterly in the mid-week period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today and potentially Tuesday. Storm chances will decrease in the mid-week period as high pressure builds near the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 76 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 95 74 90 73 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 90 76 / 60 40 60 40 Homestead 94 75 89 76 / 40 30 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 76 87 76 / 60 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 75 87 76 / 60 50 50 40 Pembroke Pines 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 91 72 87 73 / 60 40 40 30 Boca Raton 93 74 88 75 / 60 50 50 40 Naples 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180978 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 109 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 723 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Most active weather has been observed over central and eastern Palm Beach county and adjacent waters. A couple of strong cells still linger over central Palm Beach as of this issuance. The Severe Weather Watch for the Atlantic counties has been extended until 8pm tonight based on the current radar activity, although the strongest convection should remain just offshore over the Atlantic coastal waters. Can`t rule out a few evening storms, but the threat for strong convection should end after 8pm. Lows tonight will cool down a bit over the Lake region with temps around 70s, and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Scattered to numerous showers will be likely across portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a shortwave and associated surface front approach the region. Satellite imagery shows the boundary already draped across the Lake Okeechobee region, with strong to severe storms firing off across Okeechobee and St Lucie counties. As this boundary moves southward, conditions will rapidly deteriorate for areas along the Lake and for southeastern FL. Data from the MFL 12z sounding and ACARS flights depict an atmosphere primed for convective activity and potential severe impacts, with MUCAPE > 3000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates above 6 C/km, EBWD > 40 kts, DCAPE > 1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.65 inches or more which could result in damaging wind gusts and severe hail (up to the size of a quarter) with some of the stronger thunderstorms. At this time, the limiting factor for hail development are the mid level temperatures which remain above -10C. However, temperatures will continue to drop and lapse rates will steepen as a pronounced shortwave finalizes its approach, thus enhancing the risk for hail across the area. A limited risk of tornadoes will also exist with some of the stronger storms, but chances will be limited to areas where low-level shear exceeds threshold values, namely along the immediate East Coast sea breeze boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties through 7PM today. Temperatures will continue to rise across southern-most portions of the region ahead of the approaching front and associated cloud coverage. Peak apparent temperatures in the range of 105-110F are likely for portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties where Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Localized areas in Palm Beach and Collier counties could also see elevated heat index values early this afternoon, but convective activity and cloud coverage should help limit heat-related impacts across those counties. The frontal boundary will slowly drift southward across our region overnight into Monday. This, along with the once again pinned east coast sea breeze will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region, although reduced instability and gradually decreasing large-scale ascent (as the trough shifts east) should support a lower risk of severe storms than Sunday. Although temperatures and heat indices will remain above normal, they should be a few degrees lower than Sunday so heat headlines are not expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Frontal boundary will make it`s way into the FL Straits on Tuesday into early Wednesday before dissipating. The upper level trough axis will sit east of the area through mid week before finally starting to lift out and height rises work their way into the area. This will result in elevated PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening before shower/storm chances diminish to low end chance for mid week through next weekend, mainly confined to afternoon and early evening diurnally driven sea-breeze convection. Temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend with highs across the east coast metro in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low to mid 90s over the interior and SW FL. Low temperatures will be closer to climo through mid week ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, before increasing late week into next weekend to the low 70s around the lake and upper 70s near the coasts thanks to the flow becoming more southeasterly. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the AM hours although a few showers could be possible near the SE terminals. There will be a chance of restrictions this afternoon in thunderstorms over the east coast terminals beginning around 18Z. Light and variable winds this morning will trend W-SW this morning, although a shift to the E-SE will be possible along the east coast terminals this afternoon although confidence in the sea breeze is low. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be expected today as a cold front drops through the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve into the week as the front pushes through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 88 76 / 50 40 60 40 West Kendall 95 74 90 73 / 50 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 94 75 90 76 / 60 40 60 40 Homestead 94 75 89 76 / 40 30 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 91 76 87 76 / 60 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 92 75 87 76 / 60 50 50 40 Pembroke Pines 94 76 91 76 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 91 72 87 73 / 60 40 40 30 Boca Raton 93 74 88 75 / 60 50 50 40 Naples 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
