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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1242537 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 23.Aug.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 104 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 This weekend`s weather will remain unsettled as a stalled frontal boundary remains across northern FL, with several areas of weak low pressure along the boundary. At the upper levels, there is a weak mid/upper level trough over the SE US which will get absorbed into the larger trough that will start to dig into the eastern US by late Sunday. Locally, deep moisture will remain in place with light westerly flow. HREF and forecast soundings show PWAT values around 2 inches today and Sunday, with deep moisture throughout the column. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning will increase in coverage later today aided by peak heating instability, with a similar pattern expected for Sunday. Much like yesterday, a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out during the peak heating of the day. A limited urban/poor drainage flood threat will continue across the east coast metro, especially with the sea-breeze meandering close to the coast and interacting with outflow boundaries from convection throughout the afternoon and early evening. High temperatures today and Sunday will be in the low to middle 90s. Heat indices approaching advisory criteria will be possible, however afternoon convection should prevent the need for any headlines. Low temps tonight will be in the middle 70s over the interior and around 80 closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Early in the upcoming week, the frontal boundary over northern FL is expected to dissipate. Meanwhile, a trough will dig into the eastern US and a frontal boundary associated with a system in eastern Canada will approach the southeast US early in the week and then settle north of Lake Okeechobee mid to late week. Low level westerly flow early in the week will finally return to a more typical easterly flow mid to late week. This will result in the highest PoPs favoring the interior and east coast on Monday and then switching to interior and west coast by mid to late week. Temperatures next week will remain above normal with highs in the low to middle 90s, and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over the interior, to around 80 closer to the Atlantic and Gulf coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Light and variable winds this morning becoming W/SW 5-10 kts late morning into the afternoon. An afternoon sea-breeze along the east coast will turn winds to the SE for most of the east coast terminals. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze expected this weekend over the area waters. Lingering swell from distant post tropical Erin will result in 2-5 ft seas in the Atlantic this weekend, while Gulf seas will remain 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms this weekend may result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Lingering NE swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through this afternoon, with the high risk continuing for the Palm Beaches through at least Sunday. Minor coastal flooding is possible this afternoon during high tide along the Mainland Monroe coast, including the Flamingo Visitor Center area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 78 / 60 30 50 20 West Kendall 93 76 93 77 / 60 20 50 20 Opa-Locka 94 78 94 78 / 60 30 60 20 Homestead 92 78 92 78 / 50 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 78 93 78 / 70 30 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 78 93 78 / 70 30 60 30 Pembroke Pines 96 79 96 78 / 60 30 60 20 West Palm Beach 93 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 30 Boca Raton 95 76 95 77 / 70 30 70 30 Naples 91 80 92 80 / 60 20 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
