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Atlantic is back to being seasonably quiet.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1237784 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 12.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 208 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will approach Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Sat... Key Messages - Patchy fog early this morning - Heat indices climbing to 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon - Mainly scattered (30-40%) thunderstorm chances Quiet conditions expected for the remainder of tonight, with mostly clear skies and temps hanging in the mid to upper 70s. Some patchy fog may develop inland, but is not expected to be dense enough to cause traveling hazards. A weak boundary will linger over northern NC today while high pressure attempts to rebuild in from the south. Winds will be light and variable this morning, with a weak sea breeze developing around noon, and likely advancing well inland by late afternoon. With little to no upper level support for lift, convection today will mostly be reliant on the sea breeze to initiate thunderstorms. Though high instability will be present this afternoon, convective coverage should remain fairly scattered due to dry air present in the mid levels. Precip chances will migrate inland with the sea breeze in the afternoon, with some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms holding on until around sunset over the coastal plain. High temps will climb into the low 90s inland, and upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will peak around 100-105 this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sat...Mostly quiet conditions are expected tonight with any lingering evening convection dissipating. Partly cloudy skies and calm or nearly calm winds will introduce the threat of patchy fog again. Low temps mostly in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 AM Sat...Expecting daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into the end of the week, though chances may decrease slightly on Thurs/Fri. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be diurnal in nature. Upper level trough in the Upper Midwest will gradually push E`wards into the Northeast on Monday before pushing out into the Canadian Maritimes on Tue. At the same time, upper level ridging centered near GA/FL will gradually push west and stall in the Deep South/Southeast early next week as it is sandwiched between two upper level lows. One in the western Gulf of Mexico and the other in the Sargasso Sea. Upper low in the western Gulf tracks west into Mexico by mid to late week, while the Sargasso Sea upper low gradually pushes out into the Central North Atlantic allowing ridging to gradually shift east over the Carolinas by Thu/Fri. As this occurs, another upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the mid levels, we will have a weak mid level shortwave track across the Carolinas on Sun, with a second and stronger mid level shortwave then pushing into the area on Mon into Tue. This shortwave will eventually stall across the Eastern Seaboard through about midweek before mid level ridging begins to overspread the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. At the surface, PWATs generally remain around 1.5-2.0 inches through Sun, and this will be relatively low compared to previous days as some dry air associated with an approaching backdoor cold front infiltrates the area. This dry air will also likely limit shower and thunderstorm coverage on Sun with any sea/lake/sound breezes being the primary driver of convective activity given the lack of significant forcing. Moisture then pools and PWATs surge to greater than 2 inches across the area Mon/Tue as the previously mentioned incoming shortwave early next week pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. This will result in a better chance at more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as better forcing overspreads ENC. With PWATS remaining elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any thunderstorm that develops early next week will bring a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Mon/Tue across our inland counties across the CWA. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms. As we get later into the week, ridging looks to overspread the Carolinas once again bringing some upper level convergence and drier air over the area and thus limiting precip chances. High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s with the hottest temps on Sun. While we are not expected to reach heat advisory criteria, with heat indices around 100-105 F on Sun, any prolonged outdoor exposure could become hazardous to more vulnerable groups. Lows through the entire long term remain in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/... Key Messages - Patchy fog possible this morning and tonight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring brief moments of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon As of 2 AM Sat...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are present early this morning as areas of patchy fog have developed across central and eastern NC. Fog could reduce visibilities to 3-5 miles at the TAF sites and other inland terminals through sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected through the day, with the exception of during any afternoon showers and thunderstorms which could produce some brief moments of sub-VFR conditions. There will be a threat for patchy fog again tonight with similar conditions expected. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 2 AM Sat...Will have a daily threat at afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms through the period with the lowest chances to see precip on Sun. This will bring a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening to the TAF sites. One caveat to all this, the OBX may mainly remain precip free through just about all of the period and this area has the best chance to remain VFR through midweek. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Sat...Rather benign boating conditions persist across our waters and should continue through tonight outside of any showers and thunderstorms today. Currently 5-15 kt SW`rly winds persist over all waters and will continue over the next few hours. Winds then become light (5-10 kts) through the rest of the period as a weak backdoor cold front will veer the winds north of Cape Hatteras to the north by sunrise and to the east by the afternoon with winds changing little through tonight. To the south of Hatteras winds will likely become W`rly this morning then SW`rly once again tonight at 5-10 kts. Seas will be 2-4 ft through tomorrow morning. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible today though coverage will be isolated to widely scattered at best. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 2 AM Sat...Benign boating conditions continue across our waters as ridging remains the dominant feature across the Carolinas. Winds will generally remain light at 5-10 kts on Sunday with seas of 2-3 ft noted along our coastal waters. Winds will eventually become S`rly on Mon but remain a 5-10 kts and change little through Tue. Winds may briefly increase closer to 10-15 kts around midweek. Seas will remain around 2-3 ft through the rest of the period. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
