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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1231925 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 25.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 437 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled front to the south is forecast to lift north toward the Crystal Coast later today and tonight. This front then meanders just south of the area through late next week, with areas of low pressure riding along it bringing unsettled weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible late tonight into Monday. Weak high pressure across the area this afternoon will slide offshore this evening as a mid level disturbance moves across the region. The disturbance will aid in developing a low pressure area along a stalled front just south of the area which will track eastward off the coast Monday. Clouds will continue to increase an lower through the evening as isentropic lift and mid level frontogenesis increases. Already seeing a few showers south of hwy 70 but strongest forcing is expected late tonight into Monday morning and could see moderate to locally heavy rainfall during this period with guidance showing PW values surging to around 1.75-2". While 0-6km shear is quite strong at around 40-50 kt, instability will be lacking with models showing only southern coastal sections seeing meager instability with MUCAPE potentially around 250-500 J/kg in the most unstable models, so will keep mention of thunder limited to this area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 4 PM Sunday...Low pressure continues to track ewd along a frontal boundary just off the coast Monday. Aforementioned conditions in the short term will continue through much of the morning with periods of widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall continuing. Scattered showers expected to persist into through the afternoon as the column remains saturated. Most areas should receive around 1/2-1" of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. Strong high pressure builds into the northern Mid-Altantic Monday bringing tightening pressure gradients bringing increasing E/NE winds across the area with gusts up to around 25-35 mph possible during the afternoon, highest along the coast. It will be a cool and damp day with high in the mid 60s north of low to mid 70s at best southern sections. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather lingers through the end of the work week with multiple chances for precipitation. Monday night - Wednesday: High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridges into the area Monday night then slides offshore through the day on Tuesday. While the day is forecast to start mostly dry, chances for precip build back in throughout the day as another wave of low pressure rides along the front ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance. Greatest chances of precip look to be during the day on Wednesday, but this remains uncertain as some guidance is notably wetter than other solutions. High temps are forecast to remain on the cooler side with highs in the mid-70s to near 80. Lows in the mid 50s to near 60 (mid 60s for the Outer Banks) Monday night and mid to upper 60s Tuesday night. Thursday - Sunday: Higher uncertainty remains in the forecast past midweek as guidance differ on the evolution of the pattern. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF) depicts a cutoff low progressing eastward across the Midwest towards the end of the work week, which would result in a stronger low pushing a cold front offshore by Friday. Meanwhile, other guidance (such as the GFS) is slower with the progression of this cutoff low, with the stronger cold front not pushing through ENC until the end of the weekend. Regardless of the exact evolution of the pattern, both solutions depict the potential for at least one more round of precipitation towards the end of the work week. The GFS solution would then result in a wetter weekend to follow, while the Euro solution would be a bit drier. Temps warm back up towards the end of the work week, with highs climbing back into the low to mid 80s starting Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 3 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Precip chances increase overnight with sub-VFR conditions developing late tonight and continuing through at least Monday. Low pressure will lift along a stalled frontal boundary just south of the area tonight into Monday. Clouds will continue to increase and lower this afternoon and evening with increasing precip chances. Could see moderate to locally heavy precip at times late tonight into Monday morning. High probs (70% or greater) for sub-VFR conditions developing late tonight and continuing through much of the day Monday, though far northern rtes may see cigs lift to VFR late in the day with sub-VFR probs dropping to 20-40% north of Hwy 264. Instability is limited and thunderstorm chances will remain low with isolated storms mainly restricted to southern coastal sections...Onslow, Carteret and southern Craven counties. NE winds strengthen Monday and could see gusts to around 20 kt inland and 25-30 kt along the coast Monday afternoon. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sun...An unsettled pattern continues through much of the week bringing multiple precip chances with chances for sub- VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 3 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Small Craft Advisory conditions develop south of Oregon Inlet Monday and continue into Tuesday Weak high pressure over the waters will bring light and variable winds and seas around 1-3 ft through this evening. An area of low pressure will push eastward along a stalled boundary just south of the waters overnight and Monday while strong high pressure builds into the northern Mid-Atlantic states bringing tightening pressure gradients across the waters. SCA conditions expected to develop south of Oregon Inlet around daybreak Monday with NE winds around 15-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Could see a few gusts around 25 kt across the northern waters and sounds but at this time highest probs for SCA are only around 20-40% Monday morning so will not include these zones at this time and will continue to monitor model trends. Seas will build late tonight and Monday and are expected to be around 5-8 ft by late afternoon. The chance for thunderstorms have been decreasing with the low tracking just south of the waters leading to decreasing instability across the region, however, could see isolated storms, mainly south of Ocracoke Inlet after midnight tonight through much of the day Monday. LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun...Winds decrease to around 15 kts (gusts to 20 kts) on Tuesday as high pressure slides offshore to the north. Winds then look to remain slightly elevated at around 15 knots with gusts to ~20 knots through Thursday as the unsettled pattern persists. 2-4 ft waves Sunday night will quickly build to 4-6 Monday evening/night amidst the northerly wind surge. Waves subside slightly to 3-5 ft into the day on Tuesday, but current forecast shows the potential for some 6-footers to linger through at least Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158. && $$ |
| #1231878 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 25.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 712 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled front to the south is forecast to lift north as a warm front later today and tonight. This front then meanders around the area through late next week, with areas of low pressure riding along it bringing unsettled weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 7 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Increasing clouds with a chance of showers by the afternoon A rather pleasant start to our Sunday as lows got down into the mid 50s to low 60s this morning with clearing skies. Not much has changed in the forecast for today as we gradually warm and eventually see an increase in cloudcover and shower chances. As we get into today, upper level shortwave will transit along the Tennessee River Valley as it tracks across zonal flow aloft and should reach the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Developing southerly flow ahead of this feature will lead to increased moisture advection and modest WAA. At the surface, stalled front to our south will slowly lift back north as a warm front during the day. Modest WAA in the vicinity of the warm front should support an increased chance of showers, especially during the late afternoon. Near and south of the warm front, guidance suggests somewhere between 250-500 J/Kg of MUCAPE will build into the area which should support a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Given the slow moving nature of the warm front this thunderstorm threat will likely remain relegated to areas south of Hwy 70 today. Despite the thunderstorms potential, given the weak instability and lapse rates the risk of severe weather remains Low (<5% chance). Given the slightly later arrival of showers and thicker cloud cover currently expecting high temps to get into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES -Low pressure brings a threat for periods of heavy rain tonight into Monday morning Previously mentioned shortwave will track across the Mid-Atlantic Sun night. At the surface, warm front will remain entrenched across ENC while a developing wave of low pressure tracks E`wards along this front while deepening after it pushes offshore late tonight. As this occurs, S`rly flow will continue to pump moisture northwards overnight allowing both dewpoints to increase into the 60s, and PWATs to increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. With isentropic lift becoming maximized over the area tonight as well, isolated to scattered shower activity will become more widespread especially as we near daybreak. Expect 250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE to advect into ENC overnight as well, keeping a thunder threat in place. Though once again don`t expect any severe weather. While the severe threat remains low, becoming slightly concerned that we may see some minor hydro issues towards daybreak on Monday as several factors will bring a potential for a heavy rain threat especially along the Crystal Coast and areas south of Hatteras Island. Sounding profiles show long skinny CAPE, deep warm cloud layers, and the potential for training thunderstorms which could bring very efficient rainfall rates to the area tonight. In addition to this, latest HREF probs show a 60-80% chance for 1-2 inches of rainfall along our southern zones (mainly along and south of Hwy 70) with even a 20-40% chance of seeing 3+ inches or rainfall along the Crystal Coast and Southern OBX. In general though, given the latest data, expecting 0.5-1.5 inches of rain tonight with localized amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. If these higher amounts were to verify some minor hydro issues would be possible in our typically vulnerable urban areas along the Crystal Coast. Lows Sunday night are forecast in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather lingers through the end of the work week with multiple chances for precipitation. Monday/Monday Night: Ongoing precipitation from Sunday night is forecast to be in the process of pushing offshore Monday morning as wave of low pressure moves out over the Atlantic. Chances continue to decrease Monday afternoon as high pressure noses into the area, with only slight chance to chance PoPs lingering along the southern/southeastern coast Monday afternoon. Wave of low pressure will have dragged the surface front farther north Sunday night. As wave moves offshore Monday and high pressure noses in, front will push back southward with a northerly/northeasterly surge behind it. Coupled with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, this will keep high temps well below average Monday, with max temps forecast in the low 70s. Cooler and slightly drier conditions continue overnight, with lows in the mid 50s to near 60 (mid 60s for the Outer Banks). Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slides offshore through the day on Tuesday. While the day is forecast to start mostly dry, chances for precip build back in throughout the day as another wave of low pressure rides along the front ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance. Greatest chances of precip look to be during the day on Wednesday, but this remains uncertain as some guidance is notably wetter than other solutions. High temps are forecast to remain on the cooler side with highs in the mid-70s to near 80. Thursday - Sunday: Higher uncertainty remains in the forecast past midweek as guidance differ on the evolution of the pattern. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF) depicts a cutoff low progressing eastward across the Midwest towards the end of the work week, which would result in a stronger low pushing a cold front offshore by Friday. Meanwhile, other guidance (such as the GFS) is slower with the progression of this cutoff low, with the stronger cold front not pushing through ENC until the end of the weekend. Regardless of the exact evolution of the pattern, both solutions depict the potential for at least one more round of precipitation towards the end of the work week. The GFS solution would then result in a wetter weekend to follow, while the Euro solution would be a bit drier. Temps warm back up towards the end of the work week, with highs climbing back into the low to mid 80s starting Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/... As of 710 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Primarily VFR conditions expected through early Sunday evening - SHRA/TSRA may return by Sunday afternoon and evening Not much has changed since the previous update as light winds and VFR conditions dominate ENC this morning. Continue to expect light winds through tonight as a stalled boundary gradually lifts north as a warm front. Then as a wave of low pressure rides along this warm front early Mon morning expect winds to increase to 5-15 kts out of the NE to NW. VFR conditionsare expected to continue for the most part through much of this evening. However, the caveat to this is, there will be an increasing chance for shower and isolated tstm activity starting this afternoon from SW to NE and any TAF site that sees showers or tstms could see brief periods of MVFR ceilings/vis this afternoon. As we get into tonight expect shower activity to become more widespread and for ceilings to lower to MVFR across ENC after about 06Z with the potential for IFR ceilings closer to 12Z. Have kept PROB30 mention for SHRA/TSRA across all the terminals this afternoon with -SHRA mentioned across the terminals closer to the 03-06Z Monday timeframe as increasing shower activity moves into the area. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun....Chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday morning as a wave of low pressure departs the coast. High pressure briefly builds in late Monday into early Tuesday with pred VFR expected. Precip chances and chances for sub-VFR conditions increase again late in the day on Tuesday, with an unsettled pattern and multiple chances for sub-VFR conditions expected to linger through the end of the workweek. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/... As of 345 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Good boating conditions expected through at least Sunday morning - A modest thunderstorm risk potentially returns by Sunday afternoon Generally light and variable winds at 5-10 kts will remain in place across our waters today, eventually becoming NE`rly north of Hatteras Island this afternoon as a stalled front to our south lifts north as a warm front. Winds south of Hatteras Island look to remain S-SW`rly through this afternoon. As we get into tonight a wave of low pressure develops along this warm front and then tracks E`wards pushing offshore by Mon morning allowing for winds to increase to 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts with winds becoming NE-NW`rly across all our waters by daybreak Mon. Through Sunday morning, the risk of thunderstorms is expected to be low. The risk of thunderstorms may modestly increase Sunday afternoon and evening, especially for the waters south of Cape Hatteras. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun...Weak wave of low pressure approaches ENC Sunday night and drags the stalled frontal boundary northward. As the wave pushes offshore Monday and high pressure builds in, the front will surge back southward. Winds have trended slightly higher, with winds expected to build to 15-20 kts (gust to ~25 kts) Monday afternoon. SCA`s will likely be needed beginning early on Monday. Winds decrease to around 15 kts (gusts to 20 kts) on Tuesday as high pressure slides offshore to the north. Winds then look to remain slightly elevated at around 15 knots with gusts to ~20 knots through Thursday as the unsettled pattern persists. 2-4 ft waves Sunday night will quickly build to 4-6 Monday evening/night amidst the northerly wind surge. Waves subside slightly to 3-5 ft into the day on Tuesday, but current forecast shows the potential for some 6-footers to linger through at least Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1231858 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 25.May.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 357 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled front to the south is forecast to lift north as a warm front later today and tonight. This front then meanders around the area through late next week, with areas of low pressure riding along it bringing unsettled weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Increasing clouds with a chance of showers by the afternoon Latest surface obs and satellite imagery show a brief respite in the high cloud cover that has plagued much of ENC earlier this evening with partly cloudy to clear skies noted along and north of Hwy 70 at the moment. Temps have generally cooled into the 50s to mid 60s across much of ENC this morning with lows forecast to change little by daybreak. Otherwise, previously mentioned cold front has stalled to the south of the area with light and variable winds noted across the CWA. It feels more fall like than anything this morning given the dry airmass in place, though that will change as we get into tonight. As we get into today, upper level shortwave will transit along the Tennessee River Valley as it tracks across zonal flow aloft and should reach the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Developing southerly flow ahead of this feature will lead to increased moisture advection and modest WAA. At the surface, stalled front to our south will slowly lift back north as a warm front during the day. Modest WAA in the vicinity of the warm front should support an increased chance of showers, especially during the late afternoon. Near and south of the warm front, guidance suggests somewhere between 250-500 J/Kg of MUCAPE will build into the area which should support a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Given the slow moving nature of the warm front this thunderstorm threat will likely remain relegated to areas south of Hwy 70 today. Despite the thunderstorms potential, given the weak instability and lapse rates the risk of severe weather remains Low (<5% chance). Given the slightly later arrival of showers and thicker cloud cover currently expecting high temps to get into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES -Low pressure brings a threat for periods of heavy rain tonight into Monday morning Previously mentioned shortwave will track across the Mid-Atlantic Sun night. At the surface, warm front will remain entrenched across ENC while a developing wave of low pressure tracks E`wards along this front while deepening after it pushes offshore late tonight. As this occurs, S`rly flow will continue to pump moisture northwards overnight allowing both dewpoints to increase into the 60s, and PWATs to increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. With isentropic lift becoming maximized over the area tonight as well, isolated to scattered shower activity will become more widespread espeically as we near daybreak. Expect 250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE to advect into ENC overnight as well, keeping a thunder threat in place. Though once again don`t expect any severe weather. While the severe threat remains low, becoming slightly concerned that we may see some minor hydro issues towards daybreak on Monday as several factors will bring a potential for a heavy rain threat especially along the Crystal Coast and areas south of Hatteras Island. Sounding profiles show long skinny CAPE, deep warm cloud layers, and the potential for training thunderstorms which could bring very efficient rainfall rates to the area tonight. In addition to this, latest HREF probs show a 60-80% chance for 1-2 inches of rainfall along our southern zones (mainly along and south of Hwy 70) with even a 20-40% chance of seeing 3+ inches or rainfall along the Crystal Coast and Southern OBX. In general though, given the latest data, expecting 0.5-1.5 inches of rain tonight with localized amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. If these higher amounts were to verify some minor hydro issues would be possible in our typically vulnerable urban areas along the Crystal Coast. Lows Sunday night are forecast in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sun... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather lingers through the end of the work week with multiple chances for precipitation. Monday/Monday Night: Ongoing precipitation from Sunday night is forecast to be in the process of pushing offshore Monday morning as wave of low pressure moves out over the Atlantic. Chances continue to decrease Monday afternoon as high pressure noses into the area, with only slight chance to chance PoPs lingering along the southern/southeastern coast Monday afternoon. Wave of low pressure will have dragged the surface front farther north Sunday night. As wave moves offshore Monday and high pressure noses in, front will push back southward with a northerly/northeasterly surge behind it. Coupled with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, this will keep high temps well below average Monday, with max temps forecast in the low 70s. Cooler and slightly drier conditions continue overnight, with lows in the mid 50s to near 60 (mid 60s for the Outer Banks). Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure slides offshore through the day on Tuesday. While the day is forecast to start mostly dry, chances for precip build back in throughout the day as another wave of low pressure rides along the front ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance. Greatest chances of precip look to be during the day on Wednesday, but this remains uncertain as some guidance is notably wetter than other solutions. High temps are forecast to remain on the cooler side with highs in the mid-70s to near 80. Thursday - Sunday: Higher uncertainty remains in the forecast past midweek as guidance differ on the evolution of the pattern. Some guidance (such as the ECMWF) depicts a cutoff low progressing eastward across the Midwest towards the end of the work week, which would result in a stronger low pushing a cold front offshore by Friday. Meanwhile, other guidance (such as the GFS) is slower with the progression of this cutoff low, with the stronger cold front not pushing through ENC until the end of the weekend. Regardless of the exact evolution of the pattern, both solutions depict the potential for at least one more round of precipitation towards the end of the work week. The GFS solution would then result in a wetter weekend to follow, while the Euro solution would be a bit drier. Temps warm back up towards the end of the work week, with highs climbing back into the low to mid 80s starting Thursday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Monday/... As of 345 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - VFR conditions expected through at least Sunday morning - SHRA/TSRA may return by Sunday afternoon and evening Light winds and VFR conditions remain in place across the area this morning as a weak cold front has pushed south of ENC and has stalled. The one exception is along the OBX where the winds are expected to be a bit higher (5-15kt). As we get further into Sunday, flow will become southerly as the previously mentioned front lifts back north as a warm front. As we get into the afternoon and evening the first risk of sub- VFR conditions occurs as there will be an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms along and to the south of the northward moving warm front. Have kept PROB30 mention for SHRA/TSRA across all the terminals this afternoon with -SHRA mentioned across the terminals closer to the 03-06Z Monday timeframe as increasing shower activity moves into the area. Within any shower or storm this afternoon brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible. As we get into tonight cloud deck lowers with MVFR ceilings likely to overspread the area from SW to NE late Sunday night into Mon morning. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun....Chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday morning as a wave of low pressure departs the coast. High pressure briefly builds in late Monday into early Tuesday with pred VFR expected. Precip chances and chances for sub-VFR conditions increase again late in the day on Tuesday, with an unsettled pattern and multiple chances for sub-VFR conditions expected to linger through the end of the workweek. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/... As of 345 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGES - Good boating conditions expected through at least Sunday morning - A modest thunderstorm risk potentially returns by Sunday afternoon Generally light and variable winds at 5-10 kts will remain in place across our waters today, eventually becoming NE`rly north of Hatteras Island this afternoon as a stalled front to our south lifts north as a warm front. Winds south of Hatteras Island look to remain S-SW`rly through this afternoon. As we get into tonight a wave of low pressure develops along this warm front and then tracks E`wards pushing offshore by Mon morning allowing for winds to increase to 10-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts with winds becoming NE-NW`rly across all our waters by daybreak Mon. Through Sunday morning, the risk of thunderstorms is expected to be low. The risk of thunderstorms may modestly increase Sunday afternoon and evening, especially for the waters south of Cape Hatteras. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 3 AM Sun...Weak wave of low pressure approaches ENC Sunday night and drags the stalled frontal boundary northward. As the wave pushes offshore Monday and high pressure builds in, the front will surge back southward. Winds have trended slightly higher, with winds expected to build to 15-20 kts (gust to ~25 kts) Monday afternoon. SCA`s will likely be needed beginning early on Monday. Winds decrease to around 15 kts (gusts to 20 kts) on Tuesday as high pressure slides offshore to the north. Winds then look to remain slightly elevated at around 15 knots with gusts to ~20 knots through Thursday as the unsettled pattern persists. 2-4 ft waves Sunday night will quickly build to 4-6 Monday evening/night amidst the northerly wind surge. Waves subside slightly to 3-5 ft into the day on Tuesday, but current forecast shows the potential for some 6-footers to linger through at least Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
