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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1181060 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 232 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system moves through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Monday... - Patchy, dense fog possible tonight (20-40% chance) A mid/upper level ridge will shift east over the Carolinas through tonight. Meanwhile, at the SFC, high pressure will nose south out of the Northern Mid-Atlantic. This will keep a "cool" northeasterly onshore flow going across Eastern NC through tonight. Low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion (centered around 800mb) will continue to support periods of low clouds through tonight. Of note, recent satellite imagery reveals an area of low-level drying south of the Chesapeake Bay, with an area of limited cloudcover stretching south into the Albemarle Sound vicinity of Eastern NC. Short-term guidance is insistent that this drying will be temporary, with low clouds building back in through the night. Additionally, a moist onshore flow plus light winds appears supportive of some fog potential tonight. The general consensus of guidance is more stratus than fog, and ensemble guidance only give a 20-40% chance of dense fog across any part of the area. Given all of the above, I will keep a patchy fog mention in the forecast, but hold off on messaging dense fog for now. If clouds end up clearing out, the fog threat would increase. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... - Near to below normal temps, and dry conditions, continue on Tuesday Ridging aloft, and high pressure at the surface, will support another day of dry weather across ENC on Tuesday. The main forecast challenge Tuesday will be how quickly, or if, morning clouds mix out. I suspect guidance is a bit too quick to erode the morning clouds, although we`ll be losing the moist, onshore flow as high pressure shifts overhead, so perhaps there`s some credence to this. Assuming clouds mix out by the afternoon, highs should reach close to normal inland, but still remain below normal along the Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Wed and Thu, temps rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/... As of 130 PM Monday... - Periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs through at least Tuesday AM - FG possible (20-40% chance) tonight A cool and moist northeasterly onshore flow should continue to support periods of low CIGs through at least early to mid- morning Tuesday. Additionally, as temps cool tonight, reduced VIS will become increasingly likely. The thinking is that tonight will be more of a stratus scenario as opposed to a dense fog scenario. Regardless, sub-VFR conditions are expected tonight (>80% chance). If clouds clear out tonight, the risk of FG would end up higher, and we`ll continue to monitor trends and adjust the TAFs as necessary. For now, the TAFs reflect more stratus than FG. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 130 PM Monday... - Improving marine conditions over the next 24 hours Breezy northeast winds of 10-20kt are ongoing across area waters this afternoon thanks to a pinched gradient between low pressure offshore and high pressure nosing south out of the northern Mid- Atlantic. This is also supporting elevated seas of 4-6ft across the coastal waters. High pressure will shift south into North Carolina tonight, then over Eastern NC on Tuesday. This will allow winds and seas to lay down, supporting improving marine conditions by Tuesday. In fact, winds should lay down to <10kt for all waters on Tuesday, with seas laying down to 2-4 ft. The one fly in the ointment tonight and Tuesday morning will be the potential for fog. Late this evening through about mid- morning Tuesday, visibilities are expected to fall to 1-3NM, especially across the northern waters. At this time, the probability of <1NM visibility is 20-40%, and no marine dense fog headlines are planned, but trends will be closely monitored. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Sun...High pressure will remain in control, favoring good boating conditions through mid-week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181037 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1031 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 1015 AM Monday... Low-level clouds are quickly building back in thanks to diurnal heating of a residually-moist low-level airmass, and steepening low- level lapse rates. Temps initially warmed quicker than forecast, but should slow some thanks to the clouds building back in. I adjusted temps and clouds to better match all of the above, but otherwise, the spirit of the forecast is unchanged. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/... As of 700 AM Monday...IFR stratus impacting terminals east of hwy 17. This cloud cover will expand further south and west through the morning, but is expected to remain away from PGV, ISO, and OAJ. EWN continues to be hit or miss, with a sharp gradient between VFR and IFR, and the cloud deck forecasted to come to a halt in the vicinity of EWN. A slightly more elevated MVFR deck is impacting far western portions of the CWA, currently impacting PGV as it migrates further west and breaks up. On and off MVFR conditions are possible for PGV, ISO, OAJ through the morning, but chances remain fairly low as the main cloud deck has moved further west. Afternoon remains VFR for TAF terminals, with sub-VFR conditions still continuing for OBX. NE winds gust to near 20mph inland, 25-30mph for OBX today. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR/LIFR visibilities mainly along and west of hwy 17. In addition to fog, another round of low stratus moves in Monday night/Tuesday morning from the NW impacting areas mainly east of 17. LONG TERM /Today through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1015 AM Monday... Coastal obs along the Outer Banks continue to show reduced visibilities of around 5 miles. Webcams in the area suggest visibilities may be even lower. I`ve adjusted the forecast to reflect lower visibilities hanging around for longer into the morning hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was considered, but based on recent obs and short-term guidance, it appears the fog risk will be short-lived. We`ll continue to monitor trends in case this risk were to worsen and/or last longer into the day. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181021 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 400 AM Monday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 700 AM Monday...IFR stratus impacting terminals east of hwy 17. This cloud cover will expand further south and west through the morning, but is expected to remain away from PGV, ISO, and OAJ. EWN continues to be hit or miss, with a sharp gradient between VFR and IFR, and the cloud deck forecasted to come to a halt in the vicinity of EWN. A slightly more elevated MVFR deck is impacting far western portions of the CWA, currently impacting PGV as it migrates further west and breaks up. On and off MVFR conditions are possible for PGV, ISO, OAJ through the morning, but chances remain fairly low as the main cloud deck has moved further west. Afternoon remains VFR for TAF terminals, with sub-VFR conditions still continuing for OBX. NE winds gust to near 20mph inland, 25-30mph for OBX today. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR/LIFR visibilities mainly along and west of hwy 17. In addition to fog, another round of low stratus moves in Monday night/Tuesday morning from the NW impacting areas mainly east of 17. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 415 AM Monday...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1181005 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:45 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 430 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Today/... As of 400 AM Monday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE`rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE`rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 AM Mon...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west at the end of the week bringing chances for unsettled weather. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may reach or exceed 90 by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops capped 30% on Fri, and perhaps slightly better chances Sat at 40%. Followed closer to convective climatology this far out, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to evening time periods, with very small shower chances overnight through the noon period. Hottest day of the week appears Fri, where highs around 90 or even a tick higher are possible interior, with 70s to around 80 beaches. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/... As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95. More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR visibilities. LONG TERM /Tue through Friday/... As of 430 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions are expected through much of the week. Exception may be early Tue, when MVFR or lower stratus and/or fog possible in the morning hours with light onshore flow. Next chance of thundershowers not until Friday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 415 AM Monday...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE`rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA`s linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Mon...Good boating cond this week as high pres dominates. Nerly breezes on Tue become srly on Wed as high pres eases offshore. Winds will remain light (5-15 kt) through the end of the week, with seas remaining below 5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1180986 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 151 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 145 AM Monday...THigh pressure ridging extends S`wards into the Carolinas in the wake of a S`ward moving cold front with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and a mid level trough to our south. High pressure ridging continues to build S`wards keeping the area dry. Given the close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across eastern portions of the FA. As we near daybreak continued NE`rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There remains some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast for now but will have to monitor trends as the night progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Monday...No major changes to the forecast at this time. Previous Discussion...As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on continued NE`rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/... As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95. More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR visibilities. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and southern coastal waters SCA`s that are out. Otherwise general trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday continued NE`rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while seas remain around 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
| #1180961 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 819 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Sunday...The forecast remains on track with no notable changes made with the evening update. Previous Discussion...As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards into the Carolinas in the wake of a S`ward moving cold front with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and a second mid level low currently moving south across portions of SE Georgia this afternoon. Both lows and cold front should continue to pull away from ENC this evening as high pressure ridging continues to build S`wards keeping the area dry outside of a stray shower or two along the Crystal Coast. Given the close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across the FA. As a result, highs have only gotten into the 60s to low 70s today across the region bringing a rather brisk end to the weekend. As we get into tonight, upper level trough is forecast to push further offshore while upper ridging builds in from the west. At the same time associated mid level shortwaves continue to pull further away from the region. This will allow high pressure ridging to further entrench itself across the Carolinas tonight resulting in some dry air finally beginning to overspread the area. Some reduction in cloud cover is forecast especially across the Coastal Plain early this evening with portions of our western CWA potentially seeing partly to mo clear skies for a brief period of time tonight. However as we near daybreak continued NE`rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again overspread much if not all of ENC by daybreak. There remains some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast for now but will have to monitor trends as the evening progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on continued NE`rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week. Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week. Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/... As of 7:45 PM Sunday...Cloud cover is diminishing and all TAF sites are finally back to VFR. Far eastern terminals, however, are holding onto MVFR ceilings. The majority of the coastal plain is expected to remain VFR until early tomorrow morning. Low-level cloud cover will increase from E to W early Monday morning as gusty northeasterly winds pump in moisture from the Atlantic. How far inland these low clouds spread is the main question. The expectation is for ceilings along the OBX to remain MVFR through the overnight hours tonight, spreading westward through ~12Z tomorrow morning. Eastern terminals (EWN and OAJ) have the best chance at seeing MVFR ceilings while western terminals (PGV and ISO) should remain VFR. Cloud cover will diminish as it retreats eastward through the day tomorrow, but it`s very possible that the OBX will be stuck with MVFR ceilings through the day. Confidence in fog was not high enough to include in the TAFs. Some patchy fog development is possible, especially given the widespread rainfall we received yesterday, but dense fog is not expected areawide. The best chance for fog development would be for far western terminals (PGV and ISO) where cloud cover will be the most scarce and winds have the best chance of decoupling. LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show widespread NE`rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and southern coastal waters SCA`s that are out. Otherwise general trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday continued NE`rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while seas remain around 4-6 ft. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 150-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
