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Subtropical dev pos this week well east of Florida. Eastern EPAC low heads towards Central America.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #1284696 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 05.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 243 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased on timing of shower/tstorm chances Friday. Post-frontal marine winds trended up, still below 25 kt gusts && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers today. 2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday. 3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple of slow moving to stationary boundaries have been evident on satellite since this morning, and along these boundaries scattered showers are ongoing. Dry air at low levels (700-800mb) and at mid levels (~500mb) as denoted on the 12Z MHX sounding should help keep showers shallow and brief in nature, and as a result thunder chances remain low through today. With a loss of daytime heating once the sun sets, coverage of shower should come down drastically. We are pretty warm with temps in the low 80s inland, mid 70s along the coast. Highs shouldn`t get much higher than this, especially with cloud cover increasing inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Ahead of the front, we could see more isolated to scattered showers moving SW to NE inland in the morning hours, still uncertain how much of an impact these have to instability later on in the day. Circling back to Friday afternoon, anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability (assuming morning showers have little to no impacT) for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. Confidence is increasing on the best forcing lining up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially along and west of the Jacksonville/New Bern/Washington, NC corridor in the afternoon and early evening Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. With some weak helicity present a brief, weak tornado can`t be ruled out. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX around or shortly after midnight Friday night. KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours. VFR skies across the board with some isolated weak showers in the region. sct/bkn cu field should dissipate with a loss of daytime heating. Later tonight, guidance isn`t really suggesting any low stratus, and we should have winds elevated enough to preclude a fog threat. However, given how the past two morning have gone and low level moisture still in place, it is possible guidance is just not getting a good grasp of the situation. With that in mind, keeping a sct MVFR ceiling mention for most TAF sites tonight, but more aggressive flight restrictions may be necessitated with later updates. More SHRA may begin encroaching on the area from the west in the morning hours as well, as a cold front slowly edges east through central NC. Once we get towards the afternoon, the front is at our doorstep and TSRA risk with some gusty winds increases. Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through today. Friday, cold front moves through in the evening into overnight hours for our waters. Ahead of the front, strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are possible. Behind the front, winds switch to the north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots. Outlook (Friday night through Monday): Cold front pushes offshore, with north/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots behind it. Tstorm threat pushes offshore with the front. High builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free. Waves also go down as a result. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284658 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 612 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added patchy, dense fog to the forecast for this morning west of HWY 17. Widely scattered showers along and just inland from the coast overnight due to coastal trough. Maintained highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties Friday with potential severe. Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday. 2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday. 3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend. Aviation: LIFR conditions possible through early Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setup through today. An amplified upper trough will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week. Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering southeast to south as weak coastal trough lifts through, which is producing some widely scattered showers from southern coastal areas northeast through the western Pamlico Sound vicinity. West of the showers, another round of low stratus and patchy, dense fog will impact the HWY 17 corridor through about 9am this morning. With no forcing in place will maintain PoPs generally less than 20% this afternoon. Warm today with highs in the lower 80s interior to 70s beaches. Overnight lows remain above climatology, with readings in the 60s the next few nights. KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially west of HWY 17 Friday afternoon. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat. KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours. Like yesterday morning, an area of low stratus and BR/FG has developed, but this time it is focused over a slightly smaller area, impacting KOAJ, KISO, and KPGV. VIS and CIGs have been bouncing up and down which makes that TAFs more difficult to nail down. The expectation is that occasional drops to LIFR/IFR will remain a risk through around 13-14z before CIGs and VIS begin to improve back towards MVFR/VFR. East of the low stratus, VFR CIGs and SHRA have been impacting KMRH and KEWN. Some of the heavier SHRA have had reductions to MVFR VIS for short periods of time. Through the day, some of these SHRA may work inland, but any that do should be very brief. Later tonight, another round of low stratus appears possible. However, the expectation is that there will be enough wind to limit the BR/FG risk. More SHRA may begin encroaching on the area from the west as well, as a cold front slowly edges east through central NC. Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas 3-5 ft will gradually build through tonight with developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through Thursday. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Southerly winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pressure develops well offshore Friday into the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning northwesterly behind the frontal passage but should cont remaining below 25 knots, though elevated seas around 6 ft or greater may cont. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284648 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 214 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Widely scattered showers along and just inland from the coast overnight due to coastal trough. Maintained highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties Friday with potential severe. Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday. 2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday. 3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend. Aviation: LIFR conditions possible through early Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through Thursday. An amplified upper trough will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week. Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering southeast to south as weak coastal trough lifts through, which is producing some widely scattered showers from Swanquarter to Jacksonville and along the southern coast. Another fog and low stratus threat tonight into Thursday morning as moistening boundary layer continues. Southerly flow Thursday, but with no forcing in place will maintain PoPs generally less than 20%. Warm Thursday with highs in the lower 80s interior to 70s beaches. Overnight lows remain above climatology, with readings in the 60s the next few nights. KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially west of HWY 17 Friday afternoon. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat. KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 24 hours. High clouds streaming over the area may complicate the evolution of aviation concerns overnight, especially as it relates to VIS. While guidance continue to point towards a risk of low stratus, it`s less clear whether or not VIS will drop as much as what occurred 24 hours ago. For now, the TAFs were left mostly unchanged, but are subject to change overnight. Any low stratus should rise during the day Thursday, and may even scatter out at times. Low stratus may then redevelop Thursday evening into Thursday night as low-level moisture advection and weak lift increases ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Outlook: On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday evening or Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas 2-5 ft will gradually build through tonight with developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through Thursday. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Southerly winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pressure develops well offshore Friday into the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning northwesterly behind the frontal passage but should cont remaining below 25 knots, though elevated seas around 6 ft or greater may cont. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284635 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 05.Nov.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1241 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Widely scattered showers along and just inland from the coast overnight due to coastal trough. Maintained highest thunder chances for coastal plain counties Friday with potential severe. Raised max temps on the OBX through Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm with increasing moisture and isolated showers through Thursday. 2) Widespread showers and a few severe thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front on Friday. 3) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend. Aviation: Another risk of LIFR tonight into early Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Little change to the forecast reasoning and synoptic setups through Thursday. An amplified upper trough will be shifting east out of the Central U.S. A progressive and open wave will sweep through the Eastern U.S at the end of the week. Before that happens, low level flow is currently veering southeast to south as weak coastal trough lifts through, which is producing some widely scattered showers from Swanquarter to Jacksonville and along the southern coast. Another fog and low stratus threat tonight into Thursday morning as moistening boundary layer continues. Southerly flow Thursday, but with no forcing in place will maintain PoPs generally less than 20%. Warm Thursday with highs in the lower 80s interior to 70s beaches. Overnight lows remain above climatology, with readings in the 60s the next few nights. KEY MESSAGE 2...Friday - Still looks like widespread showers and a few thunderstorms breaking out during the afternoon into evening as a cold front moves through Eastern NC. Anomalous moisture and higher-than-normal instability for early November is expected, as indicated by EFI highlighting CAPE vals nearing the 80th percentile. Have maintained thunder threat for inland areas where the EFI is highlighting the higher CAPE/Shear indices inland, and where highest instability and shear will reside. If best forcing lines up with peak heating, a strong to severe thunderstorm threat would materialize for areas especially west of HWY 17 Friday afternoon. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The front sweeps offshore late Friday with any remaining showers exiting the OBX before daybreak Sat. KEY MESSAGE 3...Good agreement amongst models with frontal passage late Friday, allowing a more seasonably dry airmass to usher in for the weekend. Return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions with widely scattered showers through the overnight hours along the coast due to coastal troughing, mainly NCA to MRH to HSE and just inland. Overall pattern for tonight looks very similar to last night with high potential for another round of fog and low stratus (LIFR) late tonight into early Thursday. Dry conditions for Thu with the low clouds lifting to MVFR and then eventually VFR as strong mixing occurs with a slight uptick in southerly winds. Outlook (Thursday night through Monday): On Friday, a cold front is forecast to move through with an increased risk of widespread SHRA with a few TSRA embedded. Some of the strongest TSRA may be accompanied by a risk of strong winds of 40kt+. Very heavy rain and IFR/LIFR VIS will be possible as well. The northwest wind shift along the front is expected to occur Friday night. A drier northwesterly flow behind the front should then support mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the period (strongest across the outer southern and central waters). Seas 2-5 ft will gradually build through tonight with developing SE winds and increasing swell from low pressure well offshore. Seas will build to 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore through Friday. Scattered light showers will be possible through Thursday. Outlook (Friday through Monday): Southerly winds will cont in the 5-15 kt range, though a better chance for some advected 6+ ft seas as weak low pressure develops well offshore Friday into the weekend. Cold front passes through late Friday, with winds turning northwesterly behind the frontal passage but should cont remaining below 25 knots, though elevated seas around 6 ft or greater may cont. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
