Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
No tropical cyclone development is expected in the near term in the Atlantic
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1283976 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 30.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 201 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 - Hazardous conditions persist along the Atlantic coastline of Central Florida. Rough surf and numerous life-threatening rip currents are expected at beaches across the area through the weekend. Coastal flooding is still expected at high tide, particularly along portions of the Treasure Coast. - Greater coverage of rain and a few storms is likely (60-80%) on Sunday and Monday. 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast, with a 5-10% chance of exceeding 5 inches. Flash flooding is possible, especially where soils are already saturated - Boating conditions also remain hazardous into the weekend as another surge of fresh easterly winds reaches the local Atlantic. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Florida`s weather is currently influenced by a broad area of above-normal H5 heights, with a ridge axis from the Mississippi Valley to the Yucatan Peninsula. A modest pressure gradient exists over Florida, between lower pressures over the Greater Antilles and high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. A polar jet streak will pass from the Great Lakes to New England over the next 36 hours, sending another strong continental high (1030-1035 hPa) toward the Northeast U.S. This is expected to tighten the pressure gradient over Florida as we push into the weekend, maintaining fresh onshore flow in the boundary layer. Upstream, subtropical jet energy is gathering from the Chihuahuan Desert to the Eastern Pacific. A piece of this energy is forecast to stream eastward, arriving over the state on Sunday. Upper jet diffluence is likely to increase, particularly from Sunday into early Monday. Simultaneously, PWATs are forecast to exceed 201% of normal, increasing the potential for a period of enhanced moisture transport and low-level convergence. Global ensembles then slowly move this disturbance into the Atlantic by around Tuesday. Behind this feature, shortwave ridging should move over the state from Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence then begins to decrease late next week. Guidance has hastened the arrival of the next mid-latitude trough, with it most likely reaching the Deep South by early Thursday. With another subtropical jet disturbance emerging from the Four Corners late next week, a more progressive outcome appears plausible. Within this progressive, largely zonal pattern, a cold front should weaken as it approaches Central Florida around Thursday. In fact, H85 (5 kft) temperatures are forecast to remain near to above normal into next weekend. However, modified continental air is expected to lower humidity values behind the front. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Saturday... No significant weather changes are anticipated as we close out the work week and enter the first half of the weekend. Breezy northeast winds today will turn easterly and increase a bit on Saturday, with peak gusts of 20-30 mph in most cases. Sufficient moisture will remain in place for 30-50% coverage of onshore-moving showers. The greatest coverage should be near the coast, especially the Treasure Coast. Lightning chances remain low, around 20%. Hazardous conditions will persist at our beaches and for mariners. Expect 4-6 ft breaking waves in the surf zone and numerous, deadly rip currents. Displaced sandbars and beach erosion will will pose additional risks for beach-goers. Please remain out of the ocean! The highest tides will occur around midday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still a concern today along the entire coast. By Saturday, we expect peak tide levels to lessen slightly for all but the southern Treasure Coast. At least minor tidal flooding is expected to continue into Saturday, especially south of St. Lucie Inlet. Highs will remain in the low to mid 80s, with nighttime lows staying warm in the low to mid 70s courtesy of onshore winds. Sunday - Monday... The most active weather of the next seven days is expected Sunday into Monday. The combination of subtropical jet stream energy, ample moisture, and persistent onshore flow appears capable of producing bands of heavy rainfall and isolated storms. While frictional convergence will be maximized along the coast, locally excessive rainfall cannot be ruled out over the interior of east central Florida. Average rainfall tallies of 1-3" are forecast during this period, with a 5-10% chance of storm total amounts exceeding 5 inches. Due to recent rainfall, our FLASH-CREST soil saturation model indicates that areas from far southern Brevard to Martin counties are most vulnerable to flash flooding. Breezy east-northeast flow will continue off the Atlantic, with a few gusts of 20-30 mph. Any storms that develop may produce locally stronger gusts. The weather will not be nice to beach-goers, but those venturing out should keep in mind that hazardous conditions will continue. 5-6 ft surf should persist along with a high risk of rip currents. Highs will be modulated slightly into the upper 70s and low 80s by the clouds and rain. Tuesday - next Friday... Heavy rain potential abates beginning Tuesday, but 30-50% shower chances linger for the middle of the week as sufficient moisture remains in place. More intervals of sun should return, and winds become noticeably lighter by Wednesday. This will allow high temps to warm back into the low and mid 80s for the middle of the week. A cold front is forecast to reach Central Florida around Thursday. Indications are that the front will be weakening on approach, but it may squeeze out a band of showers and a few storms. Severe weather potential currently appears limited. Drier and perhaps slightly cooler air drifts toward the state behind the front on Friday. The less humid conditions should make for cooler nighttime conditions, but afternoons still look warm. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Poor to hazardous boating conditions prevail today as a lingering pressure gradient keeps winds and seas elevated over the local Atlantic. Strong high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. on Saturday, tightening the gradient and freshening onshore flow. This will ensure hazardous conditions for all of the local waters this weekend. A disturbance arriving Sunday is forecast to increase coverage of showers and storms late this weekend. Boating conditions should slowly improve early next week. Observations indicate that seas remain higher than forecast guidance. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended for nearshore Volusia through midday. For the nearshore Brevard and Treasure Coast, seas remain near 7 feet beyond 10 nm today through Saturday, requiring an extension to the Small Craft Advisory into the weekend. Small Craft Advisories have also been extended across all local Atlantic waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Seas of 5-8 ft today build to 6-10 ft from late Saturday through Sunday as easterly winds increase to 20-25 kts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 On and off showers are forecast through much of the TAF period with ENE flow in place. TAFs begin with predominately VFR conditions with TEMPO groups for MVFR/IFR CIGs at KDAB/KMLB/KISM/KLEE between 06Z-10Z. TEMPO/PROB30 groups exist between 10Z-14Z at KVRB/KFPR/KSUA for MVFR VIS/CIGs. Expect ENE winds at 6kts-10kts with gusts up to 15kts before increasing after 14Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 72 81 72 / 30 20 20 20 MCO 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 30 20 MLB 83 73 83 72 / 30 20 50 50 VRB 85 73 84 72 / 30 40 50 60 LEE 84 70 83 71 / 20 10 30 10 SFB 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 30 20 ORL 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 30 20 FPR 84 72 83 72 / 40 30 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575. && $$ |
| #1283972 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 30.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 140 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected to linger through one more high tide cycle Friday afternoon. Do not drive your vehicle into salt water. Follow local officials` advice to avoid flooded areas. - Dangerous conditions will persist at our beaches through the weekend. Rough surf and numerous rip currents exist along our entire shoreline, and significant erosion has occurred. Stay out of the ocean. Mariners should reconsider Atlantic boating due to gusty winds and 5 to 10 ft seas. - Onshore flow with gusts 20 to 30 mph continues through the weekend. There is a low chance of lightning storms capable of gusts to around 45 mph. The threat of locally excessive rain may increase from Saturday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Rest of Today-Friday...The mid-upper level pattern begins to amplify, driven by deepening troughs over the Pacific coast, and in the western North Atlantic. Ridging builds over the central to eastern US in response, though a lobe of vorticity caught in the pattern will cause some disruption of the ridge structure as it lifts from Mexico and Texas into the Central Plains, before elongating across much of the eastern US. The building ridge ushers weak low pressure near the Bahamas out sea, and along with surface high pressure diving southeast from the northern US/Canada, reinforces surface high pressure over the eastern US. The southern flank of the strengthening high settles over Central Florida, keeping the pressure gradient relatively tight while gradually veering flow from northeasterly to more easterly. Gusty/breezy conditions are forecast in the afternoons (gusts 20-25 mph, possibly up to 30 mph at times), with gentler winds overnight. While winds and King Tides are slowly relenting, and the highest water levels are in the rear-view mirror, we won`t shake the coastal flooding until the weekend, and dangerous beach conditions are likely to persist through the weekend. The Coastal Flood Warning has been allowed to expire, but a Coastal Flood Advisory takes its place through Friday for minor coastal flood and beach erosion during the high tides, especially the higher tide Friday in the late morning/early afternoon. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today for breaking waves up to 7 ft, and while wave heights are forecast to drop below criteria Friday, the surf will remain rough and continue to produce life- threatening rip currents. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect. Drier air filtering towards Florida around the high will still have higher than normal moisture, knocking rain chances down but not eliminating them. Isolated to scattered showers currently moving onshore (which are expected to continue the next several days) are much spottier than previous days, greatly reducing the heavy rainfall threat. That said, decreased cloud cover has opened the door for more effective destabilization from daytime heating, and this morning`s soundings lack the inversions that were capping updraft growth for many days (despite model soundings still sporting them), providing a more favorable environment for deep convection. Overall instability will be limited by very warm mid-levels and frankly pathetic lapse rates. All together, can`t rule out isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning. Gusts to around 45 mph due to drier air aloft, and brief downpours will be possible with any storms and heavy showers that manage to form. Highest chances for lightning storms, such as they are at 20% or less, will be in the afternoons and evenings, but isolated onshore moving heavy showers will be possible around the clock. Temperatures seasonally warm with highs in the L-M80s and lows in the U60s-M70s. Halloween...Not quite the trick-or-treating weather we`d hope for, as onshore flow keeps rain chances above normal in gusty and humid conditions. Central Florida remains under the southern flank of deep high pressure over the eastern US sliding towards the coast. The relatively tight pressure gradient will produce breezy/gusty onshore (easterly) flow in the afternoon and evening, with gusts 25-30 mph. While still drier than earlier this week, above normal moisture will keep the humidity higher than we`d like, and support isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon, evening, and overnight. There is a low risk (20% chance or less) for isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning. Storms that manage to form and heavy showers will also be capable of brief downpours, and drier air aloft could help produce wind gusts to around 45 mph. Temperatures remain seasonably warm with highs in the L-M80s and lows in the L-M70s, with trick-or-treating temperatures in the U-M70s, up to around 80 along the southernmost coast. At the beaches, surf will remain rough and dangerous with numerous life-threatening rip currents present. Entering the water is not advised. In the Atlantic waters, poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger, especially in the Gulf Stream. Sunday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...The setup appears favorable for an uptick in rain and even isolated (20%) lightning coverage, and statistical guidance keeps rain chances to 60-80% on Sunday. The deep onshore flow combined with modest upper jet diffluence is at least somewhat concerning for the potential of locally heavy rain. This may lead to flooding of poorly drained areas, especially along the coast on Sunday. Beach conditions are likely to remain hazardous. A slight uptick in onshore flow may be enough for us to need another High Surf Advisory for a portion of this period. Either way, life- threatening rip currents and rough surf are expected to persist. Mid to late next week, onshore flow should begin to relax as high pressure nudges over the peninsula, allowing rain chances to decrease to 20-30%. A subtropical jet stream disturbance that reaches the Southeast U.S. by around next Thursday and its front may approach the area by late next Thursday or Friday (11/6), giving us our next chance for at least scattered showers and storms. High temps should remain warm, in the low/mid 80s. It`s far too early to tell whether the front late next week poses a threat for strong to severe storms. However, the overall pattern suggests an enhanced subtropical jet developing as we head deeper into November. This is in line with expectations from a strong El Nino, and it is a key component to the periods of active weather we expect to see this upcoming winter. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist over the local Atlantic waters of Central Florida through at least the upcoming weekend, especially in the Gulf Stream. A weak low will move away from the Bahamas over the next couple of days, as the southern flank of a strong area of high pressure drifting toward the Mid- Atlantic this weekend settles across Central Florida. This will keep moderate to fresh onshore winds in place. Scattered to, at times, numerous showers are forecast. NE winds 15-20 kt through Friday, with seas 5-9 ft. Winds turn more ENE on Saturday at 15-25 kt. Seas pick back up to 6-10 ft this weekend. Intracoastal and inshore waterways very choppy to rough. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 On and off showers are forecast through much of the TAF period with ENE flow in place. TAFs begin with predominately VFR conditions with TEMPO groups for MVFR/IFR CIGs at KDAB/KMLB/KISM/KLEE between 06Z-10Z. TEMPO/PROB30 groups exist between 10Z-14Z at KVRB/KFPR/KSUA for MVFR VIS/CIGs. Expect ENE winds at 6kts-10kts with gusts up to 15kts before increasing after 14Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 72 81 72 / 30 20 20 20 MCO 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 30 20 MLB 83 73 83 72 / 30 20 50 50 VRB 85 73 84 72 / 30 40 50 60 LEE 84 70 83 71 / 20 10 30 10 SFB 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 30 20 ORL 84 72 83 72 / 20 20 30 20 FPR 84 72 83 72 / 40 30 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575. && $$ |
