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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1205923 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 PM 31.Oct.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 419 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Key Messages: - Poor to hazardous marine and surf conditions are forecast through much of the forecast period - East winds are expected to weaken Friday and into the weekend with gusts to 20-25mph at times into the afternoons - Above normal temperatures are forecast with onshore flow in place Currently-Friday... Local radar imagery shows most dry weather over east central Florida with a few isolated showers mainly to the north of Melbourne and over the local Atlantic. Analysis charts show expansive high pressure (1029mb) to the north of Florida over the western Atlantic. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to upper 60s. Winds are breezy from the east at 12-18mph with gusts to 20-30mph with partly sunny skies. Mostly dry weather is forecast overnight, however the potential exists for isolated light onshore moving showers (PoPS ~ 20%) into the overnight (mainly near the coast). Breezy east winds near the coast are expected overnight with gusts to 15-20mph. Overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are forecast inland west of I-95 with the low to mid 70s expected to the east under partly cloudy skies. A similar forecast is expected Friday with high pressure in place to the north over the western Atlantic. However, winds will weaken from the east as high pressure gradually shifts east over the western Atlantic. East winds at with gusts up to 20-25mph. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast with partly sunny skies. The Weekend... A persistent forecast is expected through the weekend as high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to gradually shift east. Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~ 20%) are forecast through the weekend with PWATs between 1.25-1.75" Saturday and 1-1.5" Sunday. East winds with gusts to 20-25mph at times are forecast into each afternoon under partly sunny skies. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are expected with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Monday-Wednesday... The pressure gradient is expected to tighten into next week as high pressure (1032mb) builds to the north over the eastern CONUS Monday and then over the western Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds are forecast to increase from the east as moderate onshore flow develops. East winds at 15-20mph with gusts to up to 30mph are forecast into each afternoon. Deteriorating marine and surf conditions are expected with poor to hazardous winds and seas through midweek. The National Hurricane Center has outlooked an area of low pressure over the Southwest Carribean with a 50% chance of development there over the next 7 days. It is still too early to know what impacts (if any) there will be for east central Florida. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay up to date on the forecast for any potential impacts which would be towards the end and/or outside of the longterm forecast period. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast with lows in the low to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 418 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Currently-Friday... High pressure remains to the north over the western Atlantic. East winds at at 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts are expected to gradually weaken into Friday at 10-15kts with up to 20kts over the offshore (20-60nm) Treasure Coast waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Friday at 08Z for all of the local waters, through 15Z over the waters with the exception of the nearshore Volusia county waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Brevard county waters, in addition to the Treasure Coast waters through Friday. Seas are expected to build up to 5-8ft nearshore and up to 7-9ft offshore before diminishing to 4-6ft with up to 7ft over the offshore Brevard and Treasure Coast waters Friday afternoon. Isolated west moving showers (PoPs ~ 20%) are forecast. Saturday-Monday ...High pressure to the north will continue to gradually weaken over the western Atlantic but will be reinforced by another area of high pressure further northward with its influence expected to spread southward through the Eastern Seaboard. Onshore winds will continue during this entire time. ISOLD-WDLY SCT sprinkles/"low- topped" showers will remain in the forecast into the weekend. Wind speeds slowly decrease into at least early Saturday, but another increase is expected Sunday into early next week to Small Craft Advisory criteria for many marine legs. Seas will subside a bit, but will remain at least Cautionary in the Gulf Stream and are expected to increase up further Sunday into early next week (return of Small Craft Advisories) as conditions stay overall unsettled (poor to hazardous) for boating && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 418 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 The St. Johns River continues to slowly fall through Moderate Flood Stage at Astor. A slow decline through Minor Flood Stage is expected through the weekend Above Lake Harney, Deland, and Sanford. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Gusty VFR conditions this afternoon, as easterly winds 10-15 kts gust to 25 kts. Becoming less gusty after 22Z as winds settle to around 10 kts inland and around 12 along the coast, then further diminish to 5-10 kts, becoming light at times inland after 02Z, and 5-10 kts along the coast by around 09Z. Winds remain onshore but less gusty Friday. ISO fast moving onshore SHRA possible along the coast might warrant VCSH at some point, but impacts too brief for TEMPOs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 84 72 85 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 69 86 70 86 / 10 20 10 20 MLB 73 85 73 84 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 67 86 68 87 / 10 10 10 20 SFB 69 86 70 86 / 10 20 20 20 ORL 70 86 70 86 / 10 20 10 20 FPR 73 84 74 84 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552-555-570. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1205906 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 PM 31.Oct.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 215 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Gusty VFR conditions this afternoon, as easterly winds 10-15 kts gust to 25 kts. Becoming less gusty after 22Z as winds settle to around 10 kts inland and around 12 along the coast, then further diminish to 5-10 kts, becoming light at times inland after 02Z, and 5-10 kts along the coast by around 09Z. Winds remain onshore but less gusty Friday. ISO fast moving onshore SHRA possible along the coast might warrant VCSH at some point, but impacts too brief for TEMPOs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Regional radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions over east central Florida with the exception of a few sprinkles. Analysis charts show expansive high pressure (1027mb) to the north of Florida over the western Atlantic. Current temperatures are in the low 70s to 80 degrees with dew points in the low to upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. Winds are breezy from the east at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20-30mph near the coast from Brevard county and to the south. A mostly dry day is forecast for east central Florida, however the potential exists for light isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~ 20%) over the local Atlantic and near the coast. Additionally, east winds at 12 to 18mph with gusts up to 20-30mph are forecast, in addition to hazardous marine and surf conditions. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast under mostly sunny skies. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...Hazardous surf and boating conditions continue into late week. Residents and visitors are advised to stay out of the ocean due to the very rough surf and high risk of rip currents... ...Onshore winds, breezy at times, prevail across the area through late week and into the weekend, with isolated onshore moving showers possible... ...Temperatures will remain above normal into next week... Current...Continue to see breezy/gusty (onshore winds) conds along the Space/Treasure coasts with speeds diminishing into the interior where speeds are closer to around 5 mph. Short-range models continue to have difficulty with ISOLD-WDLY SCT fast-moving showers pushing onto the coast and points inland very early this morning. Overall mild and warm with mixing in the low-levels provided by the elevated winds as min temperatures eventually realize U60s over the interior and L-M70s at the immediate coast. Conditions rather humid as well. Today-Tonight...Mid-level high pressure along the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. coast will slowly get nudged into the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis extending southwest across the central FL peninsula. At the surface high pressure off of the Carolina coast will gradually weaken as it slips further into the western Atlc with ridge axis remaining well north of ECFL. Low-level flow will continue to be ERLY with shallow moisture in place and a continued ISOLD threat for sprinkles/"low-topped" showers pushing onto the coast and diminishing further inland during the period. Most locations will remain dry and those that see a shower can expect generally low QPF values. The pressure gradient remains rather tight with breezy/gusty conds expected. Strongest winds and highest gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts. Max temps today mainly in the L80s with a few M80s sprinkled in - esp across the interior. Few degrees cooler overnight, esp over the interior as winds fall to 5 mph or less here, though speeds continue to stay elevated at the coast 8-13 mph with some higher gusts. Main wx concern continues to be at area beaches, where large breaking waves up to 5-7 ft and strong and dangerous rip currents are present. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening, rip currents remain in effect for the entire east central Florida coast. Residents and visitors should remain out of the ocean due to these dangerous surf conditions. Additionally, some minor beach erosion is also possible at times of high tide. Fri-Sun...Mid-level ridging initially over the western Atlc retrogrades to across the FL peninsula and GoMex as any organized wx systems remain well north of the area. Weak surface high pressure will be reinforced and this will maintain an onshore flow regime (occasionally breezy) with some coastal convergence/bump upward at times to modest moisture. As such, we are likely to continue to see a low-end PoP chance remain in the forecast (esp along the coast) for much of this period. Some of this activity will push into the interior, but amounts will remain light and most locations will stay dry. We just need to emphasize that there will be a small threat. Max temps will remain just above climo in the L-M80s with min temps a few to several degrees above normal and well into the 60s to L70s. Mon-Thu...The ridge aloft gets nudged gradually off of the FL coast and into the western Atlc into mid next week. Surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will also gradually weaken as its influence gets squashed southward to off of the Carolina coast and points further eastward across the western Atlc thru mid-week. An onshore low-level wind component (occasionally breezy) is forecast to continue with (currently) drier conditions (PoPs below 20pct), though a return of some showery precip may be in the works again for around mid-week. Warm conditions ensue with L-M80s on Mon, becoming M80s (few U80s) Tue-Thu. Overnight lows remain mild and well into the 60s and L70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Today-Tonight...Onshore winds 20-25 kts early in the period gradually decrease to 15-20 kts during the day, further 10-17 kts by daybreak Fri morning. Seas 5-8 ft near shore and 8-10 ft offshore/Gulf Stream slowly subside to 5-7 ft near shore and 7-8 ft Gulf Stream by early evening. Small Craft Advisories continue areawide thru tonight as conditions remain hazardous. Fri-Mon...High pressure to the north gradually weakens and slides into the western Atlc but will be reinforced by another high pressure cell further northward with its influence spreading southward through the Eastern Seaboard. Onshore winds will continue during this entire time. ISOLD-WDLY SCT sprinkles/"low- topped" showers will remain in the forecast into the weekend. Wind speeds slowly decrease into at least early Sat, but we may see an increase again late Sat into early next week to at least Cautionary levels for many marine legs. Seas, too, will subside a bit, but will remain at least Cautionary in the Gulf Stream and may ramp up further late in the weekend and early next week (return of Small Craft Advisories) as conds stay overall unsettled (poor to hazardous) for boating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 83 70 83 / 20 0 0 20 MCO 68 84 69 84 / 10 0 0 20 MLB 71 83 72 83 / 20 10 10 30 VRB 72 84 72 83 / 20 10 10 30 LEE 66 85 67 85 / 10 0 0 10 SFB 67 84 68 84 / 10 10 0 20 ORL 68 85 69 85 / 10 0 0 20 FPR 71 83 72 83 / 20 10 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575. && $$ |
| #1205883 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:54 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 950 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Regional radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions over east central Florida with the exception of a few sprinkles. Analysis charts show expansive high pressure (1027mb) to the north of Florida over the western Atlantic. Current temperatures are in the low 70s to 80 degrees with dew points in the low to upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. Winds are breezy from the east at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20-30mph near the coast from Brevard county and to the south. A mostly dry day is forecast for east central Florida, however the potential exists for light isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~ 20%) over the local Atlantic and near the coast. Additionally, east winds at 12 to 18mph with gusts up to 20-30mph are forecast, in addition to hazardous marine and surf conditions. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast under mostly sunny skies. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...Hazardous surf and boating conditions continue into late week. Residents and visitors are advised to stay out of the ocean due to the very rough surf and high risk of rip currents... ...Onshore winds, breezy at times, prevail across the area through late week and into the weekend, with isolated onshore moving showers possible... ...Temperatures will remain above normal into next week... Current...Continue to see breezy/gusty (onshore winds) conds along the Space/Treasure coasts with speeds diminishing into the interior where speeds are closer to around 5 mph. Short-range models continue to have difficulty with ISOLD-WDLY SCT fast-moving showers pushing onto the coast and points inland very early this morning. Overall mild and warm with mixing in the low-levels provided by the elevated winds as min temperatures eventually realize U60s over the interior and L-M70s at the immediate coast. Conditions rather humid as well. Today-Tonight...Mid-level high pressure along the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. coast will slowly get nudged into the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis extending southwest across the central FL peninsula. At the surface high pressure off of the Carolina coast will gradually weaken as it slips further into the western Atlc with ridge axis remaining well north of ECFL. Low-level flow will continue to be ERLY with shallow moisture in place and a continued ISOLD threat for sprinkles/"low-topped" showers pushing onto the coast and diminishing further inland during the period. Most locations will remain dry and those that see a shower can expect generally low QPF values. The pressure gradient remains rather tight with breezy/gusty conds expected. Strongest winds and highest gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts. Max temps today mainly in the L80s with a few M80s sprinkled in - esp across the interior. Few degrees cooler overnight, esp over the interior as winds fall to 5 mph or less here, though speeds continue to stay elevated at the coast 8-13 mph with some higher gusts. Main wx concern continues to be at area beaches, where large breaking waves up to 5-7 ft and strong and dangerous rip currents are present. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening, rip currents remain in effect for the entire east central Florida coast. Residents and visitors should remain out of the ocean due to these dangerous surf conditions. Additionally, some minor beach erosion is also possible at times of high tide. Fri-Sun...Mid-level ridging initially over the western Atlc retrogrades to across the FL peninsula and GoMex as any organized wx systems remain well north of the area. Weak surface high pressure will be reinforced and this will maintain an onshore flow regime (occasionally breezy) with some coastal convergence/bump upward at times to modest moisture. As such, we are likely to continue to see a low-end PoP chance remain in the forecast (esp along the coast) for much of this period. Some of this activity will push into the interior, but amounts will remain light and most locations will stay dry. We just need to emphasize that there will be a small threat. Max temps will remain just above climo in the L-M80s with min temps a few to several degrees above normal and well into the 60s to L70s. Mon-Thu...The ridge aloft gets nudged gradually off of the FL coast and into the western Atlc into mid next week. Surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will also gradually weaken as its influence gets squashed southward to off of the Carolina coast and points further eastward across the western Atlc thru mid-week. An onshore low-level wind component (occasionally breezy) is forecast to continue with (currently) drier conditions (PoPs below 20pct), though a return of some showery precip may be in the works again for around mid-week. Warm conditions ensue with L-M80s on Mon, becoming M80s (few U80s) Tue-Thu. Overnight lows remain mild and well into the 60s and L70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR prevails. Breezy east winds increase through the morning, gusting between 20-25 kts at all terminals this afternoon. Winds diminish to around 5 kts across the interior tonight, remaining around 9-12 kts along the coast. Occasional showers continue to move onshore, and have included VCSH along the Treasure Coast at the top of the 12Z package. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Today-Tonight...Onshore winds 20-25 kts early in the period gradually decrease to 15-20 kts during the day, further 10-17 kts by daybreak Fri morning. Seas 5-8 ft near shore and 8-10 ft offshore/Gulf Stream slowly subside to 5-7 ft near shore and 7-8 ft Gulf Stream by early evening. Small Craft Advisories continue areawide thru tonight as conditions remain hazardous. Fri-Mon...High pressure to the north gradually weakens and slides into the western Atlc but will be reinforced by another high pressure cell further northward with its influence spreading southward through the Eastern Seaboard. Onshore winds will continue during this entire time. ISOLD-WDLY SCT sprinkles/"low- topped" showers will remain in the forecast into the weekend. Wind speeds slowly decrease into at least early Sat, but we may see an increase again late Sat into early next week to at least Cautionary levels for many marine legs. Seas, too, will subside a bit, but will remain at least Cautionary in the Gulf Stream and may ramp up further late in the weekend and early next week (return of Small Craft Advisories) as conds stay overall unsettled (poor to hazardous) for boating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 69 83 71 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 86 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 84 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 84 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 86 66 85 68 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 86 68 84 69 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 86 68 86 70 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 84 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575. && $$ |
| #1205875 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 741 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR prevails. Breezy east winds increase through the morning, gusting between 20-25 kts at all terminals this afternoon. Winds diminish to around 5 kts across the interior tonight, remaining around 9-12 kts along the coast. Occasional showers continue to move onshore, and have included VCSH along the Treasure Coast at the top of the 12Z package. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...Hazardous surf and boating conditions continue into late week. Residents and visitors are advised to stay out of the ocean due to the very rough surf and high risk of rip currents... ...Onshore winds, breezy at times, prevail across the area through late week and into the weekend, with isolated onshore moving showers possible... ...Temperatures will remain above normal into next week... Current...Continue to see breezy/gusty (onshore winds) conds along the Space/Treasure coasts with speeds diminishing into the interior where speeds are closer to around 5 mph. Short-range models continue to have difficulty with ISOLD-WDLY SCT fast-moving showers pushing onto the coast and points inland very early this morning. Overall mild and warm with mixing in the low-levels provided by the elevated winds as min temperatures eventually realize U60s over the interior and L-M70s at the immediate coast. Conditions rather humid as well. Today-Tonight...Mid-level high pressure along the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. coast will slowly get nudged into the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis extending southwest across the central FL peninsula. At the surface high pressure off of the Carolina coast will gradually weaken as it slips further into the western Atlc with ridge axis remaining well north of ECFL. Low-level flow will continue to be ERLY with shallow moisture in place and a continued ISOLD threat for sprinkles/"low-topped" showers pushing onto the coast and diminishing further inland during the period. Most locations will remain dry and those that see a shower can expect generally low QPF values. The pressure gradient remains rather tight with breezy/gusty conds expected. Strongest winds and highest gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts. Max temps today mainly in the L80s with a few M80s sprinkled in - esp across the interior. Few degrees cooler overnight, esp over the interior as winds fall to 5 mph or less here, though speeds continue to stay elevated at the coast 8-13 mph with some higher gusts. Main wx concern continues to be at area beaches, where large breaking waves up to 5-7 ft and strong and dangerous rip currents are present. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening, rip currents remain in effect for the entire east central Florida coast. Residents and visitors should remain out of the ocean due to these dangerous surf conditions. Additionally, some minor beach erosion is also possible at times of high tide. Fri-Sun...Mid-level ridging initially over the western Atlc retrogrades to across the FL peninsula and GoMex as any organized wx systems remain well north of the area. Weak surface high pressure will be reinforced and this will maintain an onshore flow regime (occasionally breezy) with some coastal convergence/bump upward at times to modest moisture. As such, we are likely to continue to see a low-end PoP chance remain in the forecast (esp along the coast) for much of this period. Some of this activity will push into the interior, but amounts will remain light and most locations will stay dry. We just need to emphasize that there will be a small threat. Max temps will remain just above climo in the L-M80s with min temps a few to several degrees above normal and well into the 60s to L70s. Mon-Thu...The ridge aloft gets nudged gradually off of the FL coast and into the western Atlc into mid next week. Surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will also gradually weaken as its influence gets squashed southward to off of the Carolina coast and points further eastward across the western Atlc thru mid-week. An onshore low-level wind component (occasionally breezy) is forecast to continue with (currently) drier conditions (PoPs below 20pct), though a return of some showery precip may be in the works again for around mid-week. Warm conditions ensue with L-M80s on Mon, becoming M80s (few U80s) Tue-Thu. Overnight lows remain mild and well into the 60s and L70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Today-Tonight...Onshore winds 20-25 kts early in the period gradually decrease to 15-20 kts during the day, further 10-17 kts by daybreak Fri morning. Seas 5-8 ft near shore and 8-10 ft offshore/Gulf Stream slowly subside to 5-7 ft near shore and 7-8 ft Gulf Stream by early evening. Small Craft Advisories continue areawide thru tonight as conditions remain hazardous. Fri-Mon...High pressure to the north gradually weakens and slides into the western Atlc but will be reinforced by another high pressure cell further northward with its influence spreading southward through the Eastern Seaboard. Onshore winds will continue during this entire time. ISOLD-WDLY SCT sprinkles/"low- topped" showers will remain in the forecast into the weekend. Wind speeds slowly decrease into at least early Sat, but we may see an increase again late Sat into early next week to at least Cautionary levels for many marine legs. Seas, too, will subside a bit, but will remain at least Cautionary in the Gulf Stream and may ramp up further late in the weekend and early next week (return of Small Craft Advisories) as conds stay overall unsettled (poor to hazardous) for boating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 69 83 71 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 83 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 83 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 84 66 85 68 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 83 68 84 69 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 83 68 86 70 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 82 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575. && $$ |
| #1205839 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 231 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...Hazardous surf and boating conditions continue into late week. Residents and visitors are advised to stay out of the ocean due to the very rough surf and high risk of rip currents... ...Onshore winds, breezy at times, prevail across the area through late week and into the weekend, with isolated onshore moving showers possible... ...Temperatures will remain above normal into next week... Current...Continue to see breezy/gusty (onshore winds) conds along the Space/Treasure coasts with speeds diminishing into the interior where speeds are closer to around 5 mph. Short-range models continue to have difficulty with ISOLD-WDLY SCT fast-moving showers pushing onto the coast and points inland very early this morning. Overall mild and warm with mixing in the low-levels provided by the elevated winds as min temperatures eventually realize U60s over the interior and L-M70s at the immediate coast. Conditions rather humid as well. Today-Tonight...Mid-level high pressure along the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. coast will slowly get nudged into the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis extending southwest across the central FL peninsula. At the surface high pressure off of the Carolina coast will gradually weaken as it slips further into the western Atlc with ridge axis remaining well north of ECFL. Low-level flow will continue to be ERLY with shallow moisture in place and a continued ISOLD threat for sprinkles/"low-topped" showers pushing onto the coast and diminishing further inland during the period. Most locations will remain dry and those that see a shower can expect generally low QPF values. The pressure gradient remains rather tight with breezy/gusty conds expected. Strongest winds and highest gusts along the Space/Treasure coasts. Max temps today mainly in the L80s with a few M80s sprinkled in - esp across the interior. Few degrees cooler overnight, esp over the interior as winds fall to 5 mph or less here, though speeds continue to stay elevated at the coast 8-13 mph with some higher gusts. Main wx concern continues to be at area beaches, where large breaking waves up to 5-7 ft and strong and dangerous rip currents are present. A High Surf Advisory and a High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening, rip currents remain in effect for the entire east central Florida coast. Residents and visitors should remain out of the ocean due to these dangerous surf conditions. Additionally, some minor beach erosion is also possible at times of high tide. Fri-Sun...Mid-level ridging initially over the western Atlc retrogrades to across the FL peninsula and GoMex as any organized wx systems remain well north of the area. Weak surface high pressure will be reinforced and this will maintain an onshore flow regime (occasionally breezy) with some coastal convergence/bump upward at times to modest moisture. As such, we are likely to continue to see a low-end PoP chance remain in the forecast (esp along the coast) for much of this period. Some of this activity will push into the interior, but amounts will remain light and most locations will stay dry. We just need to emphasize that there will be a small threat. Max temps will remain just above climo in the L-M80s with min temps a few to several degrees above normal and well into the 60s to L70s. Mon-Thu...The ridge aloft gets nudged gradually off of the FL coast and into the western Atlc into mid next week. Surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will also gradually weaken as its influence gets squashed southward to off of the Carolina coast and points further eastward across the western Atlc thru mid-week. An onshore low-level wind component (occasionally breezy) is forecast to continue with (currently) drier conditions (PoPs below 20pct), though a return of some showery precip may be in the works again for around mid-week. Warm conditions ensue with L-M80s on Mon, becoming M80s (few U80s) Tue-Thu. Overnight lows remain mild and well into the 60s and L70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Today-Tonight...Onshore winds 20-25 kts early in the period gradually decrease to 15-20 kts during the day, further 10-17 kts by daybreak Fri morning. Seas 5-8 ft near shore and 8-10 ft offshore/Gulf Stream slowly subside to 5-7 ft near shore and 7-8 ft Gulf Stream by early evening. Small Craft Advisories continue areawide thru tonight as conditions remain hazardous. Fri-Mon...High pressure to the north gradually weakens and slides into the western Atlc but will be reinforced by another high pressure cell further northward with its influence spreading southward through the Eastern Seaboard. Onshore winds will continue during this entire time. ISOLD-WDLY SCT sprinkles/"low- topped" showers will remain in the forecast into the weekend. Wind speeds slowly decrease into at least early Sat, but we may see an increase again late Sat into early next week to at least Cautionary levels for many marine legs. Seas, too, will subside a bit, but will remain at least Cautionary in the Gulf Stream and may ramp up further late in the weekend and early next week (return of Small Craft Advisories) as conds stay overall unsettled (poor to hazardous) for boating. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR through the period. Wind gusts between 20-25 kts have been recently observed along the coast, but a subtle diminishing trend is forecast through the early morning hours. Inland winds remain between 4-7 kts through sunrise. Breezy east winds redevelop at all terminals by late morning, gusting to 20-25 kts. Occasional onshore moving showers continue, particularly along the Treasure Coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 69 83 71 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 83 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 83 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 84 66 85 68 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 83 68 84 69 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 83 68 86 70 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 82 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552-555-570- 572-575. && $$ |
| #1205836 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 31.Oct.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 VFR through the period. Wind gusts between 20-25 kts have been recently observed along the coast, but a subtle diminishing trend is forecast through the early morning hours. Inland winds remain between 4-7 kts through sunrise. Breezy east winds redevelop at all terminals by late morning, gusting to 20-25 kts. Occasional onshore moving showers continue, particularly along the Treasure Coast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Drier air filtering into the area has reduced shower coverage this evening. However, a few light showers or sprinkles will remain possible drifting into the coast embedded within a thin layer of moisture between 900-850mb. This will be especially true near and north of Cape Canaveral. Overall accumulations will be light, with PoPs around 20% or less. Breezy onshore winds will also continue along the coast, with wind gusts up to 30mph at times. Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s west of I-95, though onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the lower 70s. Dangerous beach and boating conditions persist. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Tonight...A fresh to strong easterly breeze, up to 20-25 knots, will continue to build seas into tonight up to 7-10 feet. This will continue hazardous boating conditions, with a Small Craft Advisory remaining in effect across the adjacent Atlantic waters. Thursday-Monday...High pressure north of the area is reinforced through the weekend, which will maintain easterly winds across the waters. Wind speeds and seas will gradually decrease through late week, but will continue to produce hazardous boating conditions. Winds decrease to 15-20 knots on Thursday and to around 10-15 knots on Friday. Seas will still be up to 7-10 feet on Thursday and then decrease to 5-7 feet by Friday afternoon. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will then persist into the weekend and early next week as winds pick back up and remain breezy around 15-20 knots. This will allow seas to slowly increase once again up to 6-8 feet on Sunday and 7-9 feet on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 69 83 71 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 83 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 83 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 84 66 85 68 / 10 10 10 0 SFB 83 68 84 69 / 10 10 10 0 ORL 83 68 86 70 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 82 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575. && $$ |
