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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1236750 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 803 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Very high chances of showers and lightning storms through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning. - Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Current-Tonight... Deep moisture (PWAT ~2.05") has supported scattered to numerous showers across the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Embedded lightning strikes have been observed, but warm temperatures aloft (~ -7C) and poor mid level lapse rates have generally limited organized strong storm development so far today. A weak east coast sea breeze has developed from Brevard county southward and is moving inland with the support of outflow from prior showers and storms. Current trends continue high coverage of showers and storms (~70%) across much of east central Florida through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as outflow and sea breeze boundaries interact. Primary storm hazards include lightning strikes, convective wind gusts up to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. While shear is weak, cannot rule out a brief funnel cloud where multiple boundaries meet. Shower activity will gradually diminish through late this evening while low rain chances remain during the overnight period (10-20%). Morning low temperatures will be mild in the low to mid 70s. Thursday-Saturday... South to southwest flow ahead of a weakening front will keep a deep tropical airmass in place through late week. NHC is continuing to monitor the potential for a weak low to develop along the decaying frontal boundary, and there is a medium chance (40%) for a tropical or subtropical depression to form by the weekend or into early next week. Regardless of development, moisture in place will keep rain chances high with multiple rounds of precipitation forecast through late week and into the weekend. Global ensemble guidance suggests widespread rainfall totals between 1-3" though Sunday. However, more localized higher totals remain possible across areas which receive multiple rounds of rainfall in shorter time intervals. General forecast trends hold a 60-80% chance of rain through late week. While the greatest focus of precipitation is expected in the afternoon and early evening hours, cannot rule out periods of overnight showers. Confidence in strong storms decreases into late week as temperatures warm aloft and building cloud cover begins to limit the extent of daytime heating. Primary storm hazards each afternoon and evening include minor flooding of urban or low lying areas, lightning strikes, and brief gusty winds. Afternoon highs remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s due to high rain chances and cloud cover. However, high moisture will hold muggy conditions in place with peak heat index values in the upper 90s and nearing 100 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 70s each morning. Sunday-Tuesday (previous)...High degree of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as model solutions diverge, but generally expect very high rain chances to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday as the low and anomalously high moisture continue to meander over or near Florida. Going into next week, weak ridging aloft should weaken or usher off the low, with the ridge axis of the subtropical high building back towards Florida. While there is a bit of a decrease in moisture, pretty good consensus for PWATs and subsequently rain and storm chances to remain above normal. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances (relatively speaking) thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 modified previous... While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for mariners through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high drops south of the area shifting flow SW-SSW. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a weak low to develop along a decaying frontal boundary. There is currently a medium (40%) chance for a tropical or subtropical depression to develop over the weekend or early next week. Regardless of development, the greatest impact remains high coverage of showers and lightning storms. However, there is decreased confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though the chances for extended periods of cautionary levels remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR resume for the terminals as TSRA dissipates this evening. Light SSW winds overnight gradually increase to around 8-12 kt after 15z Thu. Less certainty exists in the overall SHRA/TSRA coverage for Thu., so maintained VCSH around 14z across northern sites and the Treasure Coast to account for any earlier start to convection. Then, VCTS was is included areawide beginning around 18-20z. The west coast sea breeze will remain active with activity moving west to east. TEMPOs will likely be needed in future TAFs as confidence in timing/impacts increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 73 87 / 50 80 40 70 MCO 75 86 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 MLB 75 88 74 88 / 60 80 50 70 VRB 70 88 70 88 / 60 80 50 70 LEE 75 86 75 87 / 50 80 40 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 50 80 40 70 FPR 71 88 71 87 / 60 80 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236722 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Melbourne FL 301 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Very high chances of showers and lightning storms through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning. - Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Current-Tonight... Deep moisture (PWAT ~2.05") has supported scattered to numerous showers across the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Embedded lightning strikes have been observed, but warm temperatures aloft (~ -7C) and poor mid level lapse rates have generally limited organized strong storm development so far today. A weak east coast sea breeze has developed from Brevard county southward and is moving inland with the support of outflow from prior showers and storms. Current trends continue high coverage of showers and storms (~70%) across much of east central Florida through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as outflow and sea breeze boundaries interact. Primary storm hazards include lightning strikes, convective wind gusts up to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. While shear is weak, cannot rule out a brief funnel cloud where multiple boundaries meet. Shower activity will gradually diminish through late this evening while low rain chances remain during the overnight period (10-20%). Morning low temperatures will be mild in the low to mid 70s. Thursday-Saturday... South to southwest flow ahead of a weakening front will keep a deep tropical airmass in place through late week. NHC is continuing to monitor the potential for a weak low to develop along the decaying frontal boundary, and there is a medium chance (40%) for a tropical or subtropical depression to form by the weekend or into early next week. Regardless of development, moisture in place will keep rain chances high with multiple rounds of precipitation forecast through late week and into the weekend. Global ensemble guidance suggests widespread rainfall totals between 1-3" though Sunday. However, more localized higher totals remain possible across areas which receive multiple rounds of rainfall in shorter time intervals. General forecast trends hold a 60-80% chance of rain through late week. While the greatest focus of precipitation is expected in the afternoon and early evening hours, cannot rule out periods of overnight showers. Confidence in strong storms decreases into late week as temperatures warm aloft and building cloud cover begins to limit the extent of daytime heating. Primary storm hazards each afternoon and evening include minor flooding of urban or low lying areas, lightning strikes, and brief gusty winds. Afternoon highs remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s due to high rain chances and cloud cover. However, high moisture will hold muggy conditions in place with peak heat index values in the upper 90s and nearing 100 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 70s each morning. Sunday-Tuesday (previous)...High degree of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as model solutions diverge, but generally expect very high rain chances to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday as the low and anomalously high moisture continue to meander over or near Florida. Going into next week, weak ridging aloft should weaken or usher off the low, with the ridge axis of the subtropical high building back towards Florida. While there is a bit of a decrease in moisture, pretty good consensus for PWATs and subsequently rain and storm chances to remain above normal. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances (relatively speaking) thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 modified previous... While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for mariners through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high drops south of the area shifting flow SW-SSW. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a weak low to develop along a decaying frontal boundary. There is currently a medium (40%) chance for a tropical or subtropical depression to develop over the weekend or early next week. Regardless of development, the greatest impact remains high coverage of showers and lightning storms. However, there is decreased confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though the chances for extended periods of cautionary levels remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Continued VFR outside of convection. SWRLY flow will increase which will pin the ECSB across coastal counties this afternoon and early evening. The WCSB will be more active and we will see earlier convective initiation across the I-4 corridor. Already early initiation of showers/storms across the Treasure Coast TAF sites. Storms expected to stack up across the eastern peninsula later this afternoon/evening with increasing SSW/SW storm steering. Handling TAFs with "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as applicable. Activity will wind down by mid-late evening as it pushes off of the coast and/or dissipates. Light S/SSW surface winds tonight and a repeat on Thu, though it appears the ECSB will be unable to develop as low-level SW flow remains stout. Likely early initiation again Thu as activity across WCFL develops and pushes quickly into ECFL during the morning/afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 73 87 / 50 80 40 70 MCO 75 86 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 MLB 75 88 74 88 / 60 80 50 70 VRB 70 88 70 88 / 60 80 50 70 LEE 75 86 75 87 / 50 80 40 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 50 80 40 70 FPR 71 88 71 87 / 60 80 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236720 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Very high chances of showers and lightning storms through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning. - Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Current-Tonight... Deep moisture (PWAT ~2.05") has supported scattered to numerous showers across the Florida peninsula this afternoon. Embedded lightning strikes have been observed, but warm temperatures aloft (~ -7C) and poor mid level lapse rates have generally limited organized strong storm development so far today. A weak east coast sea breeze has developed from Brevard county southward and is moving inland with the support of outflow from prior showers and storms. Current trends continue high coverage of showers and storms (~70%) across much of east central Florida through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as outflow and sea breeze boundaries interact. Primary storm hazards include lightning strikes, convective wind gusts up to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. While shear is weak, cannot rule out a brief funnel cloud where multiple boundaries meet. Shower activity will gradually diminish through late this evening while low rain chances remain during the overnight period (10-20%). Morning low temperatures will be mild in the low to mid 70s. Thursday-Saturday... South to southwest flow ahead of a weakening front will keep a deep tropical airmass in place through late week. NHC is continuing to monitor the potential for a weak low to develop along the decaying frontal boundary, and there is a medium chance (40%) for a tropical or subtropical depression to form by the weekend or into early next week. Regardless of development, moisture in place will keep rain chances high with multiple rounds of precipitation forecast through late week and into the weekend. Global ensemble guidance suggests widespread rainfall totals between 1-3" though Sunday. However, more localized higher totals remain possible across areas which receive multiple rounds of rainfall in shorter time intervals. General forecast trends hold a 60-80% chance of rain through late week. While the greatest focus of precipitation is expected in the afternoon and early evening hours, cannot rule out periods of overnight showers. Confidence in strong storms decreases into late week as temperatures warm aloft and building cloud cover begins to limit the extent of daytime heating. Primary storm hazards each afternoon and evening include minor flooding of urban or low lying areas, lightning strikes, and brief gusty winds. Afternoon highs remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s due to high rain chances and cloud cover. However, high moisture will hold muggy conditions in place with peak heat index values in the upper 90s and nearing 100 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 70s each morning. Sunday-Tuesday (previous)...High degree of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as model solutions diverge, but generally expect very high rain chances to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday as the low and anomalously high moisture continue to meander over or near Florida. Going into next week, weak ridging aloft should weaken or usher off the low, with the ridge axis of the subtropical high building back towards Florida. While there is a bit of a decrease in moisture, pretty good consensus for PWATs and subsequently rain and storm chances to remain above normal. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances (relatively speaking) thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 modified previous... While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for mariners through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high drops south of the area shifting flow SW-SSW. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a weak low to develop along a decaying frontal boundary. There is currently a medium (40%) chance for a tropical or subtropical depression to develop late this week or into the weekend. Regardless of development, the greatest impact remains high coverage of showers and lightning storms. However, there is decreased confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though the chances for extended periods of cautionary levels remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Continued VFR outside of convection. SWRLY flow will increase which will pin the ECSB across coastal counties this afternoon and early evening. The WCSB will be more active and we will see earlier convective initiation across the I-4 corridor. Already early initiation of showers/storms across the Treasure Coast TAF sites. Storms expected to stack up across the eastern peninsula later this afternoon/evening with increasing SSW/SW storm steering. Handling TAFs with "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as applicable. Activity will wind down by mid-late evening as it pushes off of the coast and/or dissipates. Light S/SSW surface winds tonight and a repeat on Thu, though it appears the ECSB will be unable to develop as low-level SW flow remains stout. Likely early initiation again Thu as activity across WCFL develops and pushes quickly into ECFL during the morning/afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 73 87 / 50 80 40 70 MCO 75 86 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 MLB 75 88 74 88 / 60 80 50 70 VRB 70 88 70 88 / 60 80 50 70 LEE 75 86 75 87 / 50 80 40 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 50 80 40 70 FPR 71 88 71 87 / 60 80 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236701 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 123 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Very high chances of showers and lightning storms through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning. - Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough takes up station above the Southeast and Florida, shunting the ridge axis of the subtropical high south and east. Surface flow becomes south to southwesterly around the ridge axis, pushing deep moisture across Florida, which begins to pile against a weakening front pushing into the Southeast. PWATs increase to around 2.0" across much of the area (around climatological 90th percentile for the time of the year), though some slots of "drier" air with PWATs around 1.8" (near normal) remain as we wait for the upper level low over the nearby Atlantic waters to finally depart. Between the high moisture and trough aloft, can expect showers and storms to get going fairly early, possibly as early as noon along the southern coast, then quickly increase in coverage while pushing north and inland, becoming scattered to numerous in the afternoon and evening. One variable to keep an eye on is early morning storm development in the northeast Gulf, as outflow could push the timeline for storms across the north earlier. While more instability will be available across more of the area compared to previous days, warming in the mid- levels, mediocre lapse rates, and very low shear will support primarily pulse lightning storms that could produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Some storms could become slow/erratic, especially along boundary collision, leading to a quick 1-3" of rainfall resulting in ponding of water on roads, and minor flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas. With the high moisture and abundance of boundary interactions, there is also potential for brief funnel clouds. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal from high rain chances and cloud cover, but combined with humidity will continue to produce heat indices in the U90s-L100s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk impacts. Thursday-Saturday...Very high rain chances as southwesterly flow around the ridge axis suppressed to our south continues to pile up moisture against the decaying frontal boundary sagging into North Florida. PWATs surge to over 2.0" (at or above the 90th percentile) over the state, which combined with the stagnant trough aloft, will support rounds of showers and lighting storms. A low pressure system is expected to form along the frontal boundary as it stalls across North Florida late in the week, which the National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days to Moderate (40%). Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary impact. Most areas are forecast to receive 1-4" of rainfall through the period (some much needed), but locations that receive locally high amounts multiple days in a row will become increasingly susceptible to flooding. Confidence in timing of showers and storms is lower than normal due to a number of factors. High coverage of clouds reducing the effect of daytime heating will result in weaker/later sea breezes (if they form at all), reducing the effectiveness of them as a forcing mechanisms. In addition as the environment becomes broadly unstable, it`ll be easier for showers and storms to develop in the overnight and morning hours. Therefore, while the highest rain chances (up to 80%) remain in the afternoon and evening, modest chances (20-40%) will continue in the overnight and morning. Confidence in the overall forecast decreases by Saturday due to uncertainty in evolution of the low. Latest guidance has he mid- level trough become cutoff as the surface low develops, causing the low to meander for a few days. Ensembles show a somewhat bimodal distribution in the location of the center of the low, which would result in different distributions of PoPs across the area. The first cluster is over the northeast Gulf near the Nature Coast, which would continue to draw moisture up over the peninsula and keep rain chances very high for the whole area. The other cluster is near or just offshore of Jacksonville or so, with drier air wrapping into North Florida but high moisture continuing to get pulled across South Florida, which would result in varying PoPs across the area. Deterministic models further complicate the forecast, having the low wander between these two clusters in some runs. Ultimately rainfall looks to remain episodic, allowing areas that receive heavy rainfall time to recover and keeping the threat for flooding limited to spots that get repeated rounds over multiple days. Sunday-Tuesday...High degree of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as model solutions diverge, but generally expect very high rain chances to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday as the low and anomalously high moisture continue to meander over or near Florida. Going into next week, weak ridging aloft should weaken or usher off the low, with the ridge axis of the subtropical high building back towards Florida. While there is a bit of a decrease in moisture, pretty good consensus for PWATs and subsequently rain and storm chances to remain above normal. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances (relatively speaking) thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for mariners through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high drops south of the area shifting flow SW- SSW. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. A low pressure system is expected to develop along a stalled frontal boundary draped across North Florida by late week and into the weekend, which the National Hurricane Center is monitoring and currently has a medium (40%) chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days. Currently the greatest impact from this system looks to be continued high coverage of showers and lightning storms, but does decrease confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though the chances for cautionary levels remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Continued VFR outside of convection. SWRLY flow will increase which will pin the ECSB across coastal counties this afternoon and early evening. The WCSB will be more active and we will see earlier convective initiation across the I-4 corridor. Already early initiation of showers/storms across the Treasure Coast TAF sites. Storms expected to stack up across the eastern peninsula later this afternoon/evening with increasing SSW/SW storm steering. Handling TAFs with "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as applicable. Activity will wind down by mid-late evening as it pushes off of the coast and/or dissipates. Light S/SSW surface winds tonight and a repeat on Thu, though it appears the ECSB will be unable to develop as low-level SW flow remains stout. Likely early initiation again Thu as activity across WCFL develops and pushes quickly into ECFL during the morning/afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 73 87 / 50 80 40 70 MCO 75 86 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 MLB 75 88 74 88 / 60 80 50 70 VRB 70 88 70 88 / 60 80 50 70 LEE 75 86 75 87 / 50 80 40 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 40 70 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 50 80 40 70 FPR 71 88 71 87 / 60 80 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236678 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 656 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Very high chances of showers and lightning storms through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning. - Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough takes up station above the Southeast and Florida, shunting the ridge axis of the subtropical high south and east. Surface flow becomes south to southwesterly around the ridge axis, pushing deep moisture across Florida, which begins to pile against a weakening front pushing into the Southeast. PWATs increase to around 2.0" across much of the area (around climatological 90th percentile for the time of the year), though some slots of "drier" air with PWATs around 1.8" (near normal) remain as we wait for the upper level low over the nearby Atlantic waters to finally depart. Between the high moisture and trough aloft, can expect showers and storms to get going fairly early, possibly as early as noon along the southern coast, then quickly increase in coverage while pushing north and inland, becoming scattered to numerous in the afternoon and evening. One variable to keep an eye on is early morning storm development in the northeast Gulf, as outflow could push the timeline for storms across the north earlier. While more instability will be available across more of the area compared to previous days, warming in the mid- levels, mediocre lapse rates, and very low shear will support primarily pulse lightning storms that could produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Some storms could become slow/erratic, especially along boundary collision, leading to a quick 1-3" of rainfall resulting in ponding of water on roads, and minor flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas. With the high moisture and abundance of boundary interactions, there is also potential for brief funnel clouds. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal from high rain chances and cloud cover, but combined with humidity will continue to produce heat indices in the U90s-L100s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk impacts. Thursday-Saturday...Very high rain chances as southwesterly flow around the ridge axis suppressed to our south continues to pile up moisture against the decaying frontal boundary sagging into North Florida. PWATs surge to over 2.0" (at or above the 90th percentile) over the state, which combined with the stagnant trough aloft, will support rounds of showers and lighting storms. A low pressure system is expected to form along the frontal boundary as it stalls across North Florida late in the week, which the National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days to Moderate (40%). Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary impact. Most areas are forecast to receive 1-4" of rainfall through the period (some much needed), but locations that receive locally high amounts multiple days in a row will become increasingly susceptible to flooding. Confidence in timing of showers and storms is lower than normal due to a number of factors. High coverage of clouds reducing the effect of daytime heating will result in weaker/later sea breezes (if they form at all), reducing the effectiveness of them as a forcing mechanisms. In addition as the environment becomes broadly unstable, it`ll be easier for showers and storms to develop in the overnight and morning hours. Therefore, while the highest rain chances (up to 80%) remain in the afternoon and evening, modest chances (20-40%) will continue in the overnight and morning. Confidence in the overall forecast decreases by Saturday due to uncertainty in evolution of the low. Latest guidance has he mid- level trough become cutoff as the surface low develops, causing the low to meander for a few days. Ensembles show a somewhat bimodal distribution in the location of the center of the low, which would result in different distributions of PoPs across the area. The first cluster is over the northeast Gulf near the Nature Coast, which would continue to draw moisture up over the peninsula and keep rain chances very high for the whole area. The other cluster is near or just offshore of Jacksonville or so, with drier air wrapping into North Florida but high moisture continuing to get pulled across South Florida, which would result in varying PoPs across the area. Deterministic models further complicate the forecast, having the low wander between these two clusters in some runs. Ultimately rainfall looks to remain episodic, allowing areas that receive heavy rainfall time to recover and keeping the threat for flooding limited to spots that get repeated rounds over multiple days. Sunday-Tuesday...High degree of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as model solutions diverge, but generally expect very high rain chances to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday as the low and anomalously high moisture continue to meander over or near Florida. Going into next week, weak ridging aloft should weaken or usher off the low, with the ridge axis of the subtropical high building back towards Florida. While there is a bit of a decrease in moisture, pretty good consensus for PWATs and subsequently rain and storm chances to remain above normal. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances (relatively speaking) thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for mariners through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high drops south of the area shifting flow SW- SSW. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. A low pressure system is expected to develop along a stalled frontal boundary draped across North Florida by late week and into the weekend, which the National Hurricane Center is monitoring and currently has a medium (40%) chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days. Currently the greatest impact from this system looks to be continued high coverage of showers and lightning storms, but does decrease confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though the chances for cautionary levels remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Mainly VFR outside of convection. An increase in SW flow will develop with the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast. This flow regime favors a more active west coast sea breeze with showers and storms developing along and ahead of this boundary and pushing northeast across the area this afternoon, then offshore into the evening. Have inserted TEMPO TS groups for this package and hold onto VCSH overnight for many sites as moist SW flow will bring SHRA onshore from the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 74 88 73 / 60 50 80 40 MCO 89 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 40 MLB 88 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40 VRB 89 72 89 72 / 70 50 80 40 LEE 87 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 30 SFB 90 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40 ORL 89 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40 FPR 89 73 88 73 / 70 50 80 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236667 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 334 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Very high chances of showers and lightning storms through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning. - Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Today-Tonight...A mid-level trough takes up station above the Southeast and Florida, shunting the ridge axis of the subtropical high south and east. Surface flow becomes south to southwesterly around the ridge axis, pushing deep moisture across Florida, which begins to pile against a weakening front pushing into the Southeast. PWATs increase to around 2.0" across much of the area (around climtaological 90th percentile for the time of the year), though some slots of "drier" air with PWATs around 1.8" (near normal) remain as we wait for the upper level low over the nearby Atlantic waters to finally depart. Between the high moisture and trough aloft, can expect showers and storms to get going fairly early, possibly as early as noon along the southern coast, then quickly increase in coverage while pushing north and inland, becoming scattered to numerous in the afternoon and evening. One variable to keep an eye on is early morning storm development in the northeast Gulf, as outflow could push the timeline for storms across the north earlier. While more instability will be available across more of the area compared to previous days, warming in the mid- levels, mediocre lapse rates, and very low shear will support primarily pulse lightning storms that could produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Some storms could become slow/erratic, especially along boundary collision, leading to a quick 1-3" of rainfall resulting in ponding of water on roads, and minor flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas. With the high moisture and abundance of boundary interactions, there is also potential for brief funnel clouds. Afternoon highs near to slightly below normal from high rain chances and cloud cover, but combined with humidity will continue to produce heat indices in the U90s-L100s, and Minor to Moderate HeatRisk impacts. Thursday-Saturday...Very high rain chances as southwesterly flow around the ridge axis suppressed to our south continues to pile up moisture against the decaying frontal boundary sagging into North Florida. PWATs surge to over 2.0" (at or above the 90th percentile) over the state, which combined with the stagnant trough aloft, will support rounds of showers and lighting storms. A low pressure system is epxceted to form along the frontal boundary as it stalls across North Florida late in the week, which the National Hurricane Center has increased the potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days to Moderate (40%). Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary impact. Most areas are forecast to receive 1-4" of rainfall through the period (some much needed), but locations that receive locally high amounts multiple days in a row will become increasingly susceptible to flooding. Confidence in timing of showers and storms is lower than normal due to a number of factors. High coverage of clouds reducing the effect of daytime heating will result in weaker/later sea breezes (if they form at all), reducing the effectiveness of them as a forcing mechanisms. In addition as the environment becomes broadly unstable, it`ll be easier for showers and storms to develop in the overnight and morning hours. Therefore, while the highest rain chances (up to 80%) remain in the afternoon and evening, modest chances (20-40%) will continue in the overnight and morning. Confidence in the overall forecast decreases by Saturday due to uncertainty in evolution of the low. Latest guidance has he mid- level trough become cutoff as the surface low develops, causing the low to meander for a few days. Ensembles show a somewhat bimodal distribution in the location of the center of the low, which would result in different distributions of PoPs across the area. The first cluster is over the northeast Gulf near the Nature Coast, which would continue to draw moisture up over the peninsula and keep rain chances very high for the whole area. The other cluster is near or just offshore of Jacksonville or so, with drier air wrapping into North Florida but high moisture continuing to get pulled across South Florida, which would result in varying PoPs across the area. Deterministic models further complicate the forecast, having the low wander between these two clusters in some runs. Ultimately rainfall looks to remain episodic, allowing areas that receive heavy rainfall time to recover and keeping the threat for flooding limited to spots that get repeated rounds over multiple days. Sunday-Tuesday...High degree of uncertainty in the extended range forecast as model solutions diverge, but generally expect very high rain chances to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday as the low and anomalously high moisture continue to meander over or near Florida. Going into next week, weak ridging aloft should weaken or usher off the low, with the ridge axis of the subtropical high building back towards Florida. While there is a bit of a decrease in moisture, pretty good consensus for PWATs and subsequently rain and storm chances to remain above normal. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances (relatively speaking) thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for mariners through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high drops south of the area shifting flow SW- SSW. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. A low pressure system is expected to develop along a stalled frontal boundary draped across North Florida by late week and into the weekend, which the National Hurricane Center is monitoring and currently has a medium (40%) chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days. Currently the greatest impact from this system looks to be continued high coverage of showers and lightning storms, but does decrease confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though the chances for cautionary levels remain low at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Mainly VFR through 14Z. An increase in SW flow will develop Wed with the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast. This flow regime favors a more active west coast sea breeze with showers and storms developing along and ahead of this boundary and pushing northeast across the area and offshore into the afternoon. Have VCTS mentioned for now, starting around 16Z at SUA followed by 17-19Z elsewhere. TEMPO TS groups will likely be needed with later TAF packages once confidence in timing increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 74 88 73 / 60 50 80 40 MCO 89 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 40 MLB 88 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40 VRB 89 72 89 72 / 70 50 80 40 LEE 87 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 30 SFB 90 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40 ORL 89 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40 FPR 89 73 88 73 / 70 50 80 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1236660 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 02.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 213 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - High chances of showers and lightning storms each day, especially Wednesday onward. Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, with higher than normal chances in the overnight. - Rounds of showers and storms late week and into the weekend will increase the risk for minor flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high rainfall amounts multiple days in a row. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Current-Tonight... The east coast sea breeze has developed, initiating isolated showers and storms across the coastal counties this afternoon. Increasing coverage is expected across the interior through the remainder of the afternoon and evening (PoPs ~50-60%) as the sea breeze progresses inland and mesoscale boundary interactions increase. Temperatures aloft around -8.5 C have contributed to poor mid level lapse rates. However, surface heating and increasing low level lapse rates could still be supportive an isolated strong storm or two. A stronger storm which develops will be capable of localized wind gusts up to 50 mph and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in addition to torrential downpours. Current trends suggest peak storm coverage occurring near sunset along a late sea breeze collision. Showers and storms will then slowly diminish through 10pm with dry conditions expected overnight. Low temperatures will range the low to mid 70s, while a few rural areas could see values fall into the upper 60s. Wednesday... A surface ridge axis in place across the Florida peninsula is nudged south and east as a cold front slowly sinks across the southeast U.S. South to southwest surface flow should generally favor a west coast sea breeze regime while limiting the progression of the east coast breeze. Convective allowing models have started to hint at a cluster of storms developing across the Gulf waters early Wednesday. Should these solutions verify, storm outflow could further aid the progression of the west coast sea breeze. Outflow and sea breeze collisions combined with deep moisture (PWAT ~ 2.0-2.1") should allow for high coverage of showers and storm Wednesday afternoon and evening (70-80%). Isolated stronger storms which develop will be capable of wind gusts up to 50 mph, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and periods of locally heavy rainfall. A brief funnel cloud cannot be ruled out where multiple boundaries collide. Afternoon temperatures will settle near to just below normal due to high precip chances and increasing cloud cover. Highs are forecast to range the upper 80s to low 90s. Combined with humidity, heat index values will climb into the upper 90s and low 100s. Thursday-Friday... A weakening cold front continues its slow movement across the southeast U.S. and into north Florida. Southwest flow piles moisture ahead of and along the frontal boundary with modeled PWATs near to above the 90th climatological percentile. Multiple rounds of storms and heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday and Friday with PoPs peaking between 70-80% during the afternoon and evenings. Portions of east central Florida have been outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall each day, and localized ponding of water or minor flooding of urban and low lying areas will be possible where multiple rounds of rain occur. Additional storm hazards remain convective wind gusts up to 50 mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. As the frontal boundary stalls and weakens, NHC is monitoring the potential for an area of low pressure to develop. There is a low 30% chance for Tropical or Subtropical development late this week or into the weekend. Regardless of development, rounds of heavy rainfall remain the primary threat through the period. Trends in cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures just below normal through the close of the work week. Highs are mostly forecast in the mid to upper 80s while a few areas could still touch the 90 degree mark. Morning lows will widely range the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Monday (previous)...Some uncertainty remains in the extended range of the forecast, dependent on if and how the low pressure system develops, but pretty good agreement for the unsettled pattern and flooding potential to continue through the weekend, with conditions returning to a more typical summer pattern into next week. Rain chances remain high Saturday and possibly Sunday, then a gradual trend to closer to normal rain chances beyond the weekend, though whether that`s early or mid week is unclear at this time. An uptick in temperatures accompanies the decreasing rain chances thanks to more opportunity for sunlight, but generally remaining near to slightly above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Modified Previous... While winds and seas are generally favorable for boating as weak high pressure remains in control through Thursday, multiple rounds of showers and storms will pose a continuous risk for marine operators through the week and into the weekend. A weakening ridge axis from the subtropical high, located near central Florida today, drops south of the area Wednesday and Thursday, shifting flow from southerly today to southwesterly midweek. Winds back a bit in the afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze, though high cloud cover could result in a weak/late development. Seas 1-3 ft. There is potential for a low pressure system to develop along a stalled frontal boundary draped across North Florida by late week and into the weekend, which the National Hurricane Center is monitoring and currently has a low (30%) chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next 7 days. Currently the greatest impact from this system looks to be continued high coverage of showers and lightning storms, but does decrease confidence in the wind and seas forecast after Thursday, though speeds and heights currently look to remain below cautionary criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Mainly VFR through 14Z. An increase in SW flow will develop Wed with the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast. This flow regime favors a more active west coast sea breeze with showers and storms developing along and ahead of this boundary and pushing northeast across the area and offshore into the afternoon. Have VCTS mentioned for now, starting around 16Z at SUA followed by 17-19Z elsewhere. TEMPO TS groups will likely be needed with later TAF packages once confidence in timing increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 74 88 73 / 60 50 80 40 MCO 89 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 40 MLB 88 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40 VRB 89 72 89 72 / 70 50 80 40 LEE 87 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 30 SFB 90 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40 ORL 89 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40 FPR 89 73 88 73 / 70 50 80 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
