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| #1256583 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 223 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 217 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 - A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and Osceola Counties through 10 AM this morning. Additional patchy dense fog is forecast through mid morning for the remaining counties. Patchy fog is forecast once again for late tonight into early Friday morning. - Dry and increasingly warm weather through much of the weekend, with many spots reaching the lower 80s. Rain chances return Sunday as a cold front pushes through the area. - Cooler weather returns by early next week behind the front. Rain chances increase into mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Today-Saturday...Upper level high pressure will remain over the region as an upper level trough over the Great Plains deepens through Friday. An upper level low then drops down from Canada into the Great Plains on Saturday as it shifts eastward into the Midwest. At the surface, high pressure axis will remain in place over the Florida peninsula as the center near the Carolina coast slowly drifts south and east further into the Atlantic. Locally, this will cause the winds to become east to southeast this afternoon before veering more south to southeast on on Saturday. Wind speeds will remain near 10 mph or less due to the proximity to the ridge. Dry conditions continue through Friday with a very low to low (15-20 percent) chance of showers along the coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward, Saturday. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through early weekend, with Friday and Saturday being around 10-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Near record highs are forecast Friday and Saturday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s today, and low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s each night. The potential for late night/early morning fog will remain a concern through at least Friday morning. Patchy to areas of fog (becoming locally dense at times) are forecast into this morning, with fog already developing over the west coast of Florida and steadily drifting eastward into Lake County. We have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and Osceola counties through 10 AM this morning. Patchy fog is once again forecast for late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly across the interior. Motorists should use caution overnight and during the morning commutes and be prepared for rapid changes in visibility. Sunday-Wednesday... Upper level low pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will slide east and north towards Maine through Monday and into New Brunswick into mid week. At the surface, a cold front will push into the Deep South and into the Florida panhandle early Sunday morning, reaching the local area by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. High pressure will then build over the Florida peninsula behind the front and into early next week and remain in place through at least mid next week. Slight model disagreements with how much precipitation will accompany the front. ECMW has the wettest solution, with global models in general remaining wetter compared to the NBM. Like the previous shift, have decided to trend towards the global models. Thus, have a small to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor and along the coast Sunday afternoon, and a low (20 percent) chance of showers along the coast from Cape Canaveral southward Sunday night. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Monday and Tuesday, with a medium (30-40 percent) chance of rain forecast to return on Wednesday. No lightning storm activity is forecast at this time. Northwest to north winds on Sunday will increase to 10-15 mph before veering north to northeast on Monday and decreasing to around 10 mph. Winds will continue to veer northeast to east on Tuesday and west to northwest on Wednesday as another high pressure builds in from the Gulf. Wind speeds will remain 10 mph or less through mid week. Near normal to above normal conditions Sunday will become cooler next week behind the front. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s across the north (from around Orlando northward), and low 80s across the south on Sunday, and ranging from mid to upper 60s to low 70s Monday through mid-week. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s across the north, and upper 40s to 50s across the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions dominate through early weekend as high pressure remains in place over the local area. Conditions begin to deteriorate Sunday as a cold front approaches the local area with poor to hazardous boating conditions developing and lasting through Monday night. East to southeast winds today around 10 KT will become more southeasterly on Friday and south to southeast on Saturday. Winds veer west to northwest Sunday morning before turning north to northwest and increase to 15-20 KT Sunday afternoon as a cold front pushes through the local area. Northerly winds increase to 20-25 KT Sunday night before veering northeast and decreasing to 15-20 KT Monday. Seas 1-3 ft today will increase to 2-5ft on Sunday, and 5-9ft on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast each day across the Atlantic waters through the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Monday behind the front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1244 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Area of stratus and dense fog is expanding eastward into Lake County and will continue to expand east through the I-4 corridor through early Thursday morning. There is also some potential for patchy/areas of dense fog to develop across Brevard and Okeechobee counties and the Treasure Coast overnight. Have LIFR conditions (Vis 1/4SM and Cigs around 200-300 ft) starting at KLEE at 06Z and expanding east toward KMCO/KSFB/KISM by 9Z and reaching KDAB at 10Z. LIFR conditions then forecast to persist across this area through 14-15Z before daytime heating can finally allow fog to lift and diminish into late morning. From KTIX southward have mostly MVFR/IFR conditions for patchy fog development from around 9-13Z. However, have more predominant vis/cig reductions at KVRB/KFPR where ground fog is usually more prevalent. After fog lifts, VFR conditions forecast for the afternoon and evening. However, conditions once again favorable for fog development into the overnight and early morning hours of Friday, with patchy/areas of dense fog again possible, mainly after 06Z Friday. Winds will be light and variable, becoming E/SE around 6-9 knots Thursday afternoon, and then becoming light and variable once again tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 60 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 81 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 63 80 63 / 0 0 10 0 VRB 80 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 0 LEE 79 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 80 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 80 62 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 62 81 63 / 0 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-141-144. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1256575 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 08.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1244 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 - Patchy to areas of fog forecast again tonight into early Thursday morning. Fog may become dense at times. - Dry and increasingly warm weather through much of the weekend, with many spots reaching the lower 80s. - Cooler weather returns by early next week. Rain chances increase into mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 Rest of Today-Saturday...Surface high pressure over the southern Florida peninsula will drift offshore into the western Atlantic into Saturday. As the ridge drifts northeastward, it will drag its axis northward each day. This shift will cause westerly winds today to back southeasterly through the period. However, the proximity of the ridge will keep wind speeds near 10 mph or less. Dry conditions continue through at least Saturday, with temperatures warming each day. High temperatures in the lower 80s area-wide by Friday and Saturday will be around 10-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. In fact, a few records look to be threatened Friday and Saturday. Outside of temperatures, the main concern will be late night and early morning fog through at least Friday morning. Tonight, patchy to areas of fog are expected. Fog will likely become locally dense at times, especially over the interior. Any that develops could linger through at least mid-morning, if not late morning. Motorists should use caution overnight and during the morning commutes and be prepared for rapid changes in visibility. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s, as the flow becomes onshore. Sunday-Wednesday...Models are in good agreement with the timing of our next frontal passage. A low pressure system moving eastward through the Great Lakes region will drag a surface cold front through the Southeast Sunday, reaching the local area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This front is still forecast to remain mostly dry, though the global models have shown a slightly increasing trend in PoPs compared to the NBM. Have followed this trend, with just a slight chance for a few showers along the coast during this time period. Otherwise, the later nature of the front should allow for areas near and south of Orlando to reach the lower 80s again Sunday, with mid to upper 70s across northern areas, where breezy northerly winds will arrive first. Lows overnight Sunday night will follow a similar pattern, with upper 40s to 50s south of I-4 and lower to mid-40s north. Winds veer onshore early next week, as weak ridging builds in behind the front. After that, there is considerable uncertainty into mid-week. While models agree that increasing moisture appears likely, the extent of moisture return and the amount of showers generated from it remain to be seen. Thus, have maintained the NBM PoPs, which become scattered Tuesday night into Wednesday after a dry start to the work week. Cooler, with temperatures nearer to normal. Highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows are forecast to remain above 40 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through the early part of the weekend, as high pressure remains in place over the local area. Offshore winds today back southeasterly through Saturday, remaining around 10 kts or less, with seas up to 1-3 ft. Some fog will remain possible in the early morning hours near the coast through Friday morning. A cold front will then approach the area Sunday, producing hazardous conditions into early next week. Winds veer from the north at 20-25 kts by Sunday night and will remain around 10-15 kts Monday as they become northeasterly. Seas look to respond accordingly, building up to 9 ft in the Gulf Stream and will be slow to diminish. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1244 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Area of stratus and dense fog is expanding eastward into Lake County and will continue to expand east through the I-4 corridor through early Thursday morning. There is also some potential for patchy/areas of dense fog to develop across Brevard and Okeechobee counties and the Treasure Coast overnight. Have LIFR conditions (Vis 1/4SM and Cigs around 200-300 ft) starting at KLEE at 06Z and expanding east toward KMCO/KSFB/KISM by 9Z and reaching KDAB at 10Z. LIFR conditions then forecast to persist across this area through 14-15Z before daytime heating can finally allow fog to lift and diminish into late morning. From KTIX southward have mostly MVFR/IFR conditions for patchy fog development from around 9-13Z. However, have more predominant vis/cig reductions at KVRB/KFPR where ground fog is usually more prevalent. After fog lifts, VFR conditions forecast for the afternoon and evening. However, conditions once again favorable for fog development into the overnight and early morning hours of Friday, with patchy/areas of dense fog again possible, mainly after 06Z Friday. Winds will be light and variable, becoming E/SE around 6-9 knots Thursday afternoon, and then becoming light and variable once again tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 60 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 81 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 63 80 63 / 0 0 10 0 VRB 80 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 0 LEE 79 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 80 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 80 62 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 80 62 81 63 / 0 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
