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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 264 (Idalia) , Major: 264 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 264 (Idalia) Major: 264 (Idalia)
 
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1181050 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 PM 20.May.2024)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers present on KMLB radar
early this afternoon have led to VCSH inclusion for areas from MCO
northward into mid-afternoon. Otherwise, areas are expected to
remain mostly dry today. To the south, higher confidence in
showers and storms this afternoon, with VCTS included for the
Treasure Coast, as the sea breeze moves inland. A TEMPO group has
been included for SUA, which has the highest chance for seeing any
reductions due to convection. Any convection is expected to
diminish into late evening.

Winds have already veered northeasterly behind the sea breeze for
coastal terminals from around TIX southward. The sea breeze is
forecast to move inland into this afternoon, with gusts up to
25kts possible. Winds will diminish after sunset and back northerly
once again.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across
central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended
across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture
(PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered
shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into
the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This
activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds
behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from
the Cape southward and moving inland.

Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern
portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this
afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where
greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms
will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to
locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will
be the main threats.

N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to
late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will
remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from
the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the
interior, south of Orlando.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with
the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this
evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around
15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the
evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have
added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and
nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these
headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including
the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer
to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the
waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger
storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 84 70 85 / 10 30 0 10
MCO 70 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10
MLB 72 85 72 86 / 20 30 10 10
VRB 70 87 71 88 / 20 30 10 20
LEE 68 88 71 91 / 10 40 0 10
SFB 68 87 70 90 / 10 40 0 10
ORL 71 88 71 90 / 10 40 0 10
FPR 69 87 70 87 / 20 30 10 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1181036 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 20.May.2024)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across
central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended
across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture
(PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered
shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into
the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This
activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds
behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from
the Cape southward and moving inland.

Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern
portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this
afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where
greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms
will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to
locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will
be the main threats.

N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to
late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will
remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from
the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the
interior, south of Orlando.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with
the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this
evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around
15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the
evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have
added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and
nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these
headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including
the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer
to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the
waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger
storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and
evening.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold
front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor.
Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the
boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore
Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track
southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into
the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to
increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast
sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the
weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1-
1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective
activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast
includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line
from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and
storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is
forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface
instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an
inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C),
and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth.
While strong storm development could be limited with some
uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe
storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie
counties where surface instability will be maximized.

Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with
afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north
of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few
degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat
Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast.

Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic,
extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface
troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high
pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida
panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support
development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture
remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms
along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to
three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid
to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with
highs forecast near 90 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides
eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into
the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late
week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying
conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended
period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze
regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of
convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly
Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip
chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast)
to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day
into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward
from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning,
primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some
MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually
transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of
a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with
frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early
afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast
terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for
convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper
moisture here.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the
local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the
front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer
east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea
breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore
into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward
into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday
gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday
evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward
trend each following day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0
MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0
MLB 87 73 85 72 / 20 10 50 10
VRB 89 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 10
LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0
SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0
ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0
FPR 90 69 87 70 / 30 20 50 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1181025 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 20.May.2024)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward
from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning,
primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some
MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually
transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of
a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with
frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early
afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast
terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for
convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper
moisture here.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold
front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor.
Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the
boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore
Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track
southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into
the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to
increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast
sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the
weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1-
1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective
activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast
includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line
from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and
storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is
forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface
instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an
inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C),
and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth.
While strong storm development could be limited with some
uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe
storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie
counties where surface instability will be maximized.

Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with
afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north
of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few
degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat
Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast.

Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic,
extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface
troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high
pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida
panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support
development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture
remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms
along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to
three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid
to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with
highs forecast near 90 degrees.

Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides
eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into
the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late
week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying
conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended
period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze
regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of
convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly
Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip
chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast)
to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day
into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the
local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the
front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer
east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea
breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore
into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward
into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday
gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday
evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward
trend each following day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0
MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0
MLB 87 73 85 72 / 30 10 50 10
VRB 89 71 87 71 / 40 20 50 10
LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0
SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0
ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0
FPR 90 69 87 70 / 50 20 50 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1181001 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 AM 20.May.2024)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold
front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor.
Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the
boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore
Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track
southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into
the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to
increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast
sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the
weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1-
1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective
activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast
includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line
from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and
storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is
forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface
instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an
inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C),
and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth.
While strong storm development could be limited with some
uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe
storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie
counties where surface instability will be maximized.

Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with
afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north
of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few
degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat
Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast.


Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic,
extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface
troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high
pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida
panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support
development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture
remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms
along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to
three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid
to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with
highs forecast near 90 degrees.


Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides
eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into
the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late
week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying
conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended
period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze
regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of
convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly
Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip
chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast)
to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day
into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the
local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the
front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer
east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea
breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore
into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward
into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday
gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday
evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward
trend each following day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Few nuisance
showers across the interior initially and may handle with VCSH and a
TEMPO group as necessary. Generally a WRLY component of wind thru
the night, then gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into
early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase
speeds to 15-20 kts with higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH
wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure
Coast terminals around 21Z on Mon, where confidence is higher for
convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper
moisture here.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0
MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0
MLB 87 73 85 72 / 30 10 50 10
VRB 89 71 87 71 / 40 20 50 10
LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0
SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0
ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0
FPR 90 69 87 70 / 50 20 50 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1180980 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 20.May.2024)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
136 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Few nuisance
showers across the interior initially and may handle with VCSH and a
TEMPO group as necessary. Generally a WRLY component of wind thru
the night, then gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into
early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase
speeds to 15-20 kts with higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH
wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure
Coast terminals around 21Z on Mon, where confidence is higher for
convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper
moisture here.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight.
A few lingering showers will continue moving offshore, diminishing
across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions
are then forecast to persist across the peninsula tonight, with
westerly winds remaining around 5 mph. Patchy fog may develop late
tonight into early Monday morning, particularly near the I-4
corridor and areas northward, but confidence in this was too low
to include with the forecast. We will monitor overnight and make
adjustments as needed. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal
values across east central Florida tonight, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters
into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and
becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to
severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of
Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually
diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing
and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this
evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail.
Seas will range from 2-3 feet.

This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft
offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly
increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday
and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the
waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before
gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on
Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or
around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind
speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 83 70 85 / 10 40 0 10
MCO 70 87 70 89 / 20 50 0 20
MLB 73 85 72 85 / 10 50 10 20
VRB 71 87 71 87 / 20 50 10 20
LEE 69 87 70 90 / 20 40 0 10
SFB 69 87 70 89 / 10 50 0 10
ORL 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 0 20
FPR 69 87 70 87 / 20 50 20 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1180964 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 20.May.2024)
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
922 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight.
A few lingering showers will continue moving offshore, diminishing
across the local Atlantic waters overnight. Mostly dry conditions
are then forecast to persist across the peninsula tonight, with
westerly winds remaining around 5 mph. Patchy fog may develop late
tonight into early Monday morning, particularly near the I-4
corridor and areas northward, but confidence in this was too low
to include with the forecast. We will monitor overnight and make
adjustments as needed. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal
values across east central Florida tonight, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions forecast across all terminals overnight. Lingering
VCTS near SUA will diminish by 01Z, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Westerly winds overnight around 5 knots will pick up around 15Z
out of the north-northwest around 10 knots. Gusts to 20 to 25
knots will be possible Monday afternoon, and VCSH cannot be ruled
out across the interior terminals (MCO/ISM/SFB) and along the
coast from TIX southward. Higher confidence in VCTS across the
Treasure Coast terminals after 17Z. Conditions are forecast to
improve after 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters
into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and
becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to
severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of
Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually
diminish overnight. Can`t rule out some isolated storms developing
and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this
evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail.
Seas will range from 2-3 feet.

This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft
offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly
increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday
and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the
waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before
gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on
Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or
around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind
speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 82 70 84 / 30 30 20 40
MCO 72 88 70 87 / 20 30 10 50
MLB 70 87 72 85 / 40 30 20 50
VRB 70 90 70 87 / 50 30 30 50
LEE 72 87 69 87 / 20 30 10 50
SFB 71 87 70 87 / 20 30 10 50
ORL 72 88 70 87 / 20 30 10 50
FPR 69 90 69 87 / 50 30 30 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$