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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1278839 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Rain and lightning storms remain possible through this evening, pushing west with the sea breeze. Occasional to frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds are possible. - Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - Heightened rain chances are focused along the coast Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas, especially later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Now-Tonight...A healthy field of cumulus clouds is present across east central Florida this afternoon, now highlighting the developing east coast sea breeze near I-95. Showers are forming near and west of the breeze, in an environment characterized by 2.2"+ PW (see 15z XMR sounding), 2,000-2,500 J/kg MLCAPE, weak lapse rates, and warm H5 temperatures. Like yesterday, not every location will see rain or storms this afternoon. However, the spots that do may experience torrential downpours, occasional to frequent lightning, and gusty winds. While initial convection will be focused closer to the coast through 3 PM or so, a transition of rain/storms inland is expected as both the sea breeze and 500mb flow shifts more onshore. CAMs and HREF alike push most of the activity west of the area by 8- 9 PM as it all begins to dissipate past sunset. Tonight, temperatures will settle into the 70s again but stay a few degrees warmer at the coast. This marks the beginning of deepening onshore flow and the influence of an expanding surface ridge to our north. Showers and isolated storms are supported in both short and medium-range guidance, and some of this activity could drift onshore after midnight (closer to daybreak Tuesday). Tuesday-Thursday...Some showers and a few storms over the local Atlantic may be moving onshore at the immediate coast Tuesday morning. East-northeasterly winds become established areawide, increasing a bit through the day, especially along the coast. This is in response to a gradually tightening pressure gradient around the southern periphery of a ridge, centered over New England. A 10- 15 mph breeze Tuesday becomes 15-20+ on Wednesday with peak gusts around 25-30 mph at times. Beach and boating conditions will become poor to hazardous, especially on Wednesday. As always, heed lifeguard advice, beach flags, and signs. Entering the surf is not advised as conditions worsen mid week. Lower rain chances continue to be advertised on Wednesday as a batch of drier air moves across north-central Florida. Despite model soundings highlighting a stout dry layer between 500-700mb, the low levels may remain moist enough to support shallow marine-layer showers that repeatedly push toward the coast. Lower chances for lightning (generally less than 30-40%) are forecast Wednesday. High PW values return Thursday afternoon and beyond, coincident with an upper low passing overhead. With this additional dynamic support, rain chances return to 60% and higher Thursday. Guidance is also highlighting some notable DCAPE values and H5 temps between -8C and - 10C, so the potential for a few stronger storms and locally heavy rainfall will be monitored. Friday-Sunday (previous)...The mid to upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. gradually breaks down late week as troughing aloft continues to push west of Florida and into the Gulf. Southwest to south flow behind the trough aloft will advect a column of deeper moisture over central Florida. This looks to support continued rain chances areawide into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values mostly in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Light to nearly calm winds over the local waters and seas 1-2 ft maintain favorable boating conditions this afternoon and evening. Deep moisture and a shift to increasingly east-northeast flow will support a growing chance for overnight showers and a few storms, continuing into Tuesday. Deteriorating conditions are forecast from Tuesday evening onward as high pressure strengthens north of the waters. In response, northeasterly winds freshen, worsening boating conditions from north to south late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained winds 20-25 kt with peak gusts around 30 kt are forecast, so Small Craft Advisories will be needed soon. Seas peak around 6-8 ft Wednesday into early Thursday. Rain chances will persist over the waters, perhaps lowering a bit Wednesday as some drier air moves overhead. However, moisture surges back in Thursday and Friday, supporting continued rain/storm chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions expected outside of convection this afternoon and evening. Onshore flow develops this afternoon, increasing to 10 kts as the sea breeze moves inland. Showers and storms will develop along the sea breeze in the early afternoon, just west of the coastal terminals. Have included PROB30s TSRA for the KDAB- KMLB corridor thru ~21Z. Convection is then forecast to move inland through the afternoon, with TEMPOs for interior locations, generally from 20-00Z. Showers and storms may linger in the vicinity of KLEE near 00Z, as SHRA/TSRA move into the western half of the peninsula. Otherwise, drier conditions prevail overnight. May need to add VCSH Tue morning for some coastal terminals with isolated showers moving onshore from the Atlantic. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 40 20 MCO 76 91 76 89 / 20 70 20 20 MLB 78 89 78 88 / 30 50 50 40 VRB 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 60 60 LEE 76 90 76 89 / 30 50 10 10 SFB 76 90 76 88 / 10 50 20 20 ORL 77 90 77 88 / 10 60 20 20 FPR 75 89 76 88 / 20 40 60 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1278826 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 148 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - A humid and unsettled pattern persists early this week. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast, particularly over the interior. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds to 40-50 mph are expected in the strongest storms. - Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - Heightened rain chances return to coastal communities on Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today-Tonight... Surface high pressure slides eastward over the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front offshore the northeast and mid Atlantic coast. Light offshore winds early this morning begin to veer after sunrise, turning east-northeast as the east coast sea breeze develops midday. High-res guidance indicates an active east coast sea breeze, initiating scattered showers and storms primarily west of I-95 as it pushes inland and towards the western half of the peninsula through early evening. Primary storm hazards remain locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning strikes, and localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Another hot and humid day is expected. Most locations start the day with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. By the afternoon, temperatures peak just a few degrees above seasonal climatology with highs in the low 90s. Deep moisture persists, and peak heat index values will spread 102-107 degrees. Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure expands along the eastern seaboard as a strong ridge builds aloft and centers over the southeast U.S. East-northeast winds become breezy and gusty Tuesday afternoon, further increasing to 15-20 mph Wednesday (locally higher along the coast). Breezy conditions continue through Thursday as winds gradually subside. At area beaches, building rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are expected by Wednesday. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! The increased flow into mid week should generally break down the persistent sea breeze pattern that has been driving the local weather recently. Deep moisture holds in place Tuesday, favoring moderate to high coverage of showers and storms. A much drier airmass becomes advected over portions of north-central Florida Wednesday, and the greatest rain chances (60-80%) become trimmed southward towards southern Brevard, the Treasure Coast, and across inland areas in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Despite the drier airmass, moistening of the low levels in onshore flow should at least favor scattered rain chances further north, particularly along the coast. Moisture begins to recover Thursday, returning scattered to numerous rain chances more areawide (still highest along the coast). Continuing to watch for a localized heavy rainfall threat that may develop along portions of the coast Thursday as a mid to upper level trough passes westward over the state. High temperatures in the low 90s on Tuesday fall only a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday, remaining seasonally warm. Low temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s inland will remain warm along the coast, mostly in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees. Friday-Sunday... The mid to upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. gradually breaks down late week as troughing aloft continues to push west of Florida and into the Gulf. Southwest to south flow behind the trough aloft will advect a column of deeper moisture over central Florida. This looks to support continued rain chances areawide into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values mostly in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions continue. Light offshore winds prior to sunrise gradually veer, becoming easterly late in the day behind the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, building up to 3 ft far offshore north of the Cape. A few showers and storms are forecast near the coast and over the intracoastal waters as the sea breeze develops. Scattered rain chances build late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions build into mid week as high pressure expands over the eastern U.S. East- northeast winds begin to increase 10-15 kts into Tuesday evening, further increasing 20-25 kts north of the Cape through sunrise Wednesday and spreading south of Sebastian Inlet into the afternoon. Seas respond, building 6-8 ft across the northern waters early Wednesday, expanding southward through early evening. Conditions then improve through the day Thursday as winds fall to around 10 kt and seas subside to 4-6 ft by sunset. Increased onshore flow should support high coverage of showers and storms over the waters through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions expected outside of convection this afternoon and evening. Onshore flow develops this afternoon, increasing to 10 kts as the sea breeze moves inland. Showers and storms will develop along the sea breeze in the early afternoon, just west of the coastal terminals. Have included PROB30s TSRA for the KDAB- KMLB corridor thru ~21Z. Convection is then forecast to move inland through the afternoon, with TEMPOs for interior locations, generally from 20-00Z. Showers and storms may linger in the vicinity of KLEE near 00Z, as SHRA/TSRA move into the western half of the peninsula. Otherwise, drier conditions prevail overnight. May need to add VCSH Tue morning for some coastal terminals with isolated showers moving onshore from the Atlantic. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 40 20 MCO 76 91 76 89 / 20 70 20 20 MLB 78 89 78 88 / 30 50 50 40 VRB 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 60 60 LEE 76 90 76 89 / 30 50 10 10 SFB 76 90 76 88 / 10 50 20 20 ORL 77 90 77 88 / 10 60 20 20 FPR 75 89 76 88 / 20 40 60 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1278809 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 725 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - A humid and unsettled pattern persists early this week. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast, particularly over the interior. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds to 40-50 mph are expected in the strongest storms. - Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - Heightened rain chances return to coastal communities on Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today-Tonight... Surface high pressure slides eastward over the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front offshore the northeast and mid Atlantic coast. Light offshore winds early this morning begin to veer after sunrise, turning east-northeast as the east coast sea breeze develops midday. High-res guidance indicates an active east coast sea breeze, initiating scattered showers and storms primarily west of I-95 as it pushes inland and towards the western half of the peninsula through early evening. Primary storm hazards remain locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning strikes, and localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Another hot and humid day is expected. Most locations start the day with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. By the afternoon, temperatures peak just a few degrees above seasonal climatology with highs in the low 90s. Deep moisture persists, and peak heat index values will spread 102-107 degrees. Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure expands along the eastern seaboard as a strong ridge builds aloft and centers over the southeast U.S. East-northeast winds become breezy and gusty Tuesday afternoon, further increasing to 15-20 mph Wednesday (locally higher along the coast). Breezy conditions continue through Thursday as winds gradually subside. At area beaches, building rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are expected by Wednesday. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! The increased flow into mid week should generally break down the persistent sea breeze pattern that has been driving the local weather recently. Deep moisture holds in place Tuesday, favoring moderate to high coverage of showers and storms. A much drier airmass becomes advected over portions of north-central Florida Wednesday, and the greatest rain chances (60-80%) become trimmed southward towards southern Brevard, the Treasure Coast, and across inland areas in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Despite the drier airmass, moistening of the low levels in onshore flow should at least favor scattered rain chances further north, particularly along the coast. Moisture begins to recover Thursday, returning scattered to numerous rain chances more areawide (still highest along the coast). Continuing to watch for a localized heavy rainfall threat that may develop along portions of the coast Thursday as a mid to upper level trough passes westward over the state. High temperatures in the low 90s on Tuesday fall only a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday, remaining seasonally warm. Low temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s inland will remain warm along the coast, mostly in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees. Friday-Sunday... The mid to upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. gradually breaks down late week as troughing aloft continues to push west of Florida and into the Gulf. Southwest to south flow behind the trough aloft will advect a column of deeper moisture over central Florida. This looks to support continued rain chances areawide into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values mostly in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions continue. Light offshore winds prior to sunrise gradually veer, becoming easterly late in the day behind the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, building up to 3 ft far offshore north of the Cape. A few showers and storms are forecast near the coast and over the intracoastal waters as the sea breeze develops. Scattered rain chances build late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions build into mid week as high pressure expands over the eastern U.S. East- northeast winds begin to increase 10-15 kts into Tuesday evening, further increasing 20-25 kts north of the Cape through sunrise Wednesday and spreading south of Sebastian Inlet into the afternoon. Seas respond, building 6-8 ft across the northern waters early Wednesday, expanding southward through early evening. Conditions then improve through the day Thursday as winds fall to around 10 kt and seas subside to 4-6 ft by sunset. Increased onshore flow should support high coverage of showers and storms over the waters through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 647 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Onshore flow develops today, increasing to around 10 kts this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Showers and storms develop along the sea breeze in the early afternoon, likely just west of the coastal terminals. Have included PROB30s there for any brief reductions. Convection is then forecast to move inland through the afternoon, with TEMPOs for interior locations, generally from 20-0Z. Showers and storms may linger in the vicinity of LEE through around 1Z, as they move into the western half of the peninsula. Otherwise, drier conditions prevail through most of the rest of the overnight, but will need to watch for VCSH inclusion near or just prior to 12Z at coastal sites due to onshore-moving morning showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 76 89 77 / 40 10 50 40 MCO 93 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 90 77 89 78 / 30 20 70 60 VRB 89 75 89 76 / 20 20 70 60 LEE 92 76 91 76 / 60 10 70 0 SFB 92 76 90 77 / 60 10 50 10 ORL 92 76 90 77 / 60 20 60 10 FPR 90 75 89 76 / 30 20 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1278792 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - A humid and unsettled pattern persists early this week. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast, particularly over the interior. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds to 40-50 mph are expected in the strongest storms. - Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions increases on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - Heightened rain chances return to coastal communities on Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today-Tonight... Surface high pressure slides eastward over the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front offshore the northeast and mid Atlantic coast. Light offshore winds early this morning begin to veer after sunrise, turning east-northeast as the east coast sea breeze develops midday. High-res guidance indicates an active east coast sea breeze, initiating scattered showers and storms primarily west of I-95 as it pushes inland and towards the western half of the peninsula through early evening. Primary storm hazards remain locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning strikes, and localized wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Another hot and humid day is expected. Most locations start the day with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. By the afternoon, temperatures peak just a few degrees above seasonal climatology with highs in the low 90s. Deep moisture persists, and peak heat index values will spread 102-107 degrees. Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure expands along the eastern seaboard as a strong ridge builds aloft and centers over the southeast U.S. East-northeast winds become breezy and gusty Tuesday afternoon, further increasing to 15-20 mph Wednesday (locally higher along the coast). Breezy conditions continue through Thursday as winds gradually subside. At area beaches, building rough surf and a high risk of rip currents are expected by Wednesday. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! The increased flow into mid week should generally break down the persistent sea breeze pattern that has been driving the local weather recently. Deep moisture holds in place Tuesday, favoring moderate to high coverage of showers and storms. A much drier airmass becomes advected over portions of north-central Florida Wednesday, and the greatest rain chances (60-80%) become trimmed southward towards southern Brevard, the Treasure Coast, and across inland areas in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Despite the drier airmass, moistening of the low levels in onshore flow should at least favor scattered rain chances further north, particularly along the coast. Moisture begins to recover Thursday, returning scattered to numerous rain chances more areawide (still highest along the coast). Continuing to watch for a localized heavy rainfall threat that may develop along portions of the coast Thursday as a mid to upper level trough passes westward over the state. High temperatures in the low 90s on Tuesday fall only a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday, remaining seasonally warm. Low temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s inland will remain warm along the coast, mostly in the upper 70s and near 80 degrees. Friday-Sunday... The mid to upper level ridge over the southeast U.S. gradually breaks down late week as troughing aloft continues to push west of Florida and into the Gulf. Southwest to south flow behind the trough aloft will advect a column of deeper moisture over central Florida. This looks to support continued rain chances areawide into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values mostly in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions continue. Light offshore winds prior to sunrise gradually veer, becoming easterly late in the day behind the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, building up to 3 ft far offshore north of the Cape. A few showers and storms are forecast near the coast and over the intracoastal waters as the sea breeze develops. Scattered rain chances build late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions build into mid week as high pressure expands over the eastern U.S. East- northeast winds begin to increase 10-15 kts into Tuesday evening, further increasing 20-25 kts north of the Cape through sunrise Wednesday and spreading south of Sebastian Inlet into the afternoon. Seas respond, building 6-8 ft across the northern waters early Wednesday, expanding southward through early evening. Conditions then improve through the day Thursday as winds fall to around 10 kt and seas subside to 4-6 ft by sunset. Increased onshore flow should support high coverage of showers and storms over the waters through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailing. A period of persistent onshore flow begins today, with winds E 10 kts or less by the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze, just west of the coastal terminals, by around 16Z. Convection then progresses inland through the afternoon. Currently, the highest confidence in any reductions is forecast near LEE, but will monitor with the next package for any other TEMPOs/PROB30s. Convection looks to diminish by 0-1Z. Light, generally onshore winds, are then expected overnight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 76 89 77 / 40 10 50 40 MCO 93 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 90 77 89 78 / 30 20 70 60 VRB 89 75 89 76 / 20 20 70 60 LEE 92 76 91 76 / 60 10 70 0 SFB 92 76 90 77 / 60 10 50 10 ORL 92 76 90 77 / 60 20 60 10 FPR 90 75 89 76 / 30 20 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1278788 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 - A humid and unsettled pattern persists early this week. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast, particularly over the interior. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds to 40-50 mph are expected in the strongest storms. - Turning windy, especially at the coast, from late Tuesday through Thursday. The risk of hazardous beach and boating conditions has increased on Wednesday and Thursday, including rough surf/seas and a high risk for life-threatening rip currents. - Heightened rain chances return to coastal communities on Wednesday and Thursday. Repeated bands of rain and storms over saturated spots may lead to localized flooding in urban areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- In the closing days of summer 2026, there are no signs of autumn on the weather charts yet. Above-normal H5 heights continue to sprawl from the Desert Southwest to the western Atlantic. Jet stream energy is relegated to the northern tier of states this afternoon. At the surface, a dissipating cold front is settling over the southern Appalachians, leaving a high-pressure axis from the Bahamas to the northern Gulf. A reservoir of above-normal moisture is still in place over Florida, characterized by PWATs over 2 inches. South of a mid-level jet streak passing through the Great Lakes, global ensembles develop another impressive anticyclone over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday. H5 heights may exceed 600 dam near Great Smoky Mountains NP, which is nearly unheard of for mid-September. Its surface high-pressure reflection will tuck beneath it, freshening easterly flow over Florida and the Carolinas. A sharp moisture gradient is likely to exist over Central Florida by Wednesday and Thursday as deep moisture is shunted toward the southern half of the state. Cluster analysis of the 13/00Z ensemble suite suggests that pattern retrogression will occur late in the week. As the mid-latitude ridge nudges to the west, an upper-level trough is likely to be forced westward beneath it. This feature should reach Florida by late Thursday and Friday. By next weekend, this disturbance is forecast to push into the Gulf and begin to fill. Surface high pressure and onshore flow are both expected to weaken, and moisture values should return to normal over most of the peninsula. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- This Afternoon - Monday... An increase in late-day showers and storms appears on track. Background winds are light WNW, which should limit Atlantic breeze progression while a diffuse Gulf breeze propagates toward the eastern half of the state. Hi-res guidance focuses the highest coverage of storms between now and 9 PM along and especially west of I-95 (50-70%), with a potential collision of the sea breezes roughly near a line extending from Palm Coast to DeLand to Lake Okeechobee. Storms diminish by late evening and into the overnight. On Monday, high pressure lifts northward a bit, allowing a better push of the Atlantic breeze into the interior. Medium-high (50-60%) coverage of late-day storms is again forecast, particularly from Greater Orlando to along the Kissimmee Basin. Over the next couple of days, Brief gusty winds to around 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall will occur beneath the strongest storms. REFS max-member 6-hour rainfall plots suggest a reasonable worst case of 3-4" rainfall amounts, which may cause localized flooding, particularly if it occurs over urban areas. Hot and humid conditions continue to dominate. Highs reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices as high as around 105 deg F. Tuesday - Thursday... Tuesday marks a transition in our weather pattern. As high pressure strengthens to our north, onshore breezes will steadily increase off the Atlantic. This will disrupt robust sea breeze convergence over the peninsula for much of the work week. With deep moisture still in place on Tuesday, another round of scattered storms is forecast (50-70%) with the highest coverage over the interior by afternoon. By Wednesday and Thursday, much drier air is expected to infiltrate the northern third to half of the state, but ample moisture may not be scoured out in the lowest 10 kft. Therefore, the setup should transition into onshore-moving showers and a few storms. As the upper-level trough approaches the state by late Thursday, coastal moisture convergence may increase. While it`s too early to determine, a localized heavy rain threat may develop, especially on the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts. Breezy conditions develop beginning Tuesday afternoon, becoming windy on Wednesday into at least early Thursday. Gusts may reach up to around 30-35 mph on Wednesday. The fetch of onshore flow is expected to cause rough surf and a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic beaches beginning Tuesday night. Highs should still reach the low 90s in most locations on Tuesday. The increasing onshore breezes should then cause high temps to trend into the mid-upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Barrier island communities may struggle to fall below 80 degrees at night as the wind carries in warmth from the Atlantic shelf waters and Gulf Stream. Friday - Next Weekend... The upper trough is forecast to be overhead on Friday before pushing westward into the Gulf this weekend. As high pressure weakens, onshore flow and coastal convergence will follow suit. That said, seasonable moisture will continue to support at least scattered showers and storms through this period. High temperatures should run very close to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Weak high pressure near the local waters begins to lift northward on Monday, before strengthening as it pushes well north of Florida by the middle of the week. Onshore flow will increase from late Tuesday and especially into Wednesday, becoming fresh to locally strong. Worsening boating conditions are expected, with Small Craft Advisories likely to be needed for the middle of the week. Winds becoming light offshore tonight, then E 5-10 kt on Monday. Winds turn NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, freshening to 15-25 kt from Wednesday through at least early Thursday. Seas up to 3 ft through early Tuesday, then 2-4 ft on Tuesday afternoon. Seas peak late Wednesday and early Thursday from 5-8 ft, highest north of Cape Canaveral and in the Gulf Stream. Short periods will make for very rough conditions during this time! Seas should then decrease on Friday to 2-4 ft by afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions prevailing. A period of persistent onshore flow begins today, with winds E 10 kts or less by the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze, just west of the coastal terminals, by around 16Z. Convection then progresses inland through the afternoon. Currently, the highest confidence in any reductions is forecast near LEE, but will monitor with the next package for any other TEMPOs/PROB30s. Convection looks to diminish by 0-1Z. Light, generally onshore winds, are then expected overnight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 The St Johns River at Astor may reach Action Stage this week. Locally heavy rain is expected in the middle/upper basin early this week, followed by a period of onshore winds over the lower basin and estuary from late Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 76 89 77 / 40 10 50 40 MCO 93 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10 MLB 90 77 89 78 / 30 20 70 60 VRB 89 75 89 76 / 20 20 70 60 LEE 92 76 91 76 / 60 10 70 0 SFB 92 76 90 77 / 60 10 50 10 ORL 92 76 90 77 / 60 20 60 10 FPR 90 75 89 76 / 30 20 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
