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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection: |
| #1278854 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed. JGC/98 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 An anomalously strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over our local area through Wednesday as it remains anchored over the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, observations across the region indicate that a weak boundary looks to be draped across our area, stretching from our southeast Mississippi counties into our coastal counties this afternoon. This subtle boundary looks to be separating mid to upper 60 dewpoints to its north from low to mid 70 dewpoints to its south. Although subsidence from the ridge aloft, along with the drier air filtering in from the northeast, will help to keep rain chances low for the remainder of today and into Tuesday, still cannot rule out a few isolated showers, and perhaps a storm or two, developing along this boundary or along the sea breeze. Highs today and tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices generally around 100-107 degrees. By the Wednesday through Friday timeframe, a rather interesting upper flow pattern sets up across the area. An inverted upper-level trough/low is expected to develop over the western Atlantic, just off the North/South Carolina coast. This upper feature will then push southwestward, crossing Florida on Thursday, and will enter the northeast Gulf on Friday. As this happens, the aforementioned upper ridge will start to retrograde westward, pushing into the Central Plains by Friday. The strong gradient between these two features will allow for a strengthening northeasterly flow pattern to become prevalent aloft, allowing for a much drier airmass to filter into the area from the Appalachians (thanks to cold air damming processes). In fact, dew points Wednesday and Thursday nights may drop into the upper 50s to low 60s for our interior counties. Although highs will still be quite warm (upper 80s to low 90s), our lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 60s for many areas north of I-10. The main hazards to watch out for during this time will be at our beaches. As this drier air filters in, strong easterly winds along the coast will help to increase surf heights at our local beaches to around 4-5 feet Wednesday and Thursday. Any further increase to these heights will likely result in a High Surf Advisory for the coast. Regardless, residents and visitors are urged to stay out of the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday, as a High Risk of life threatening rip currents will be in place for all local beaches. Unfortunately our initial small taste of fall looks to be rather short-lived as moisture values and rain chances quickly increase for the weekend. The upper trough/low should begin pushing to our west Friday night into Saturday, causing our upper winds to shift to southeasterly. With deep moisture being advected in from the Gulf, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to return for the weekend, mainly during the afternoon hours. It should be noted that the latest 12z run from the Euro and its ensembles hint at the possiblity that the upper low may linger just to our east, which would lean towards a bit of a drier scenario. Although right now the forecast leans toward the wetter solution, will be monitoring trends over the coming days and will adjust PoPs accordingly. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon (10-20% chance), mainly near the coast. Ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR or briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity. Light and variable winds tonight will become northeasterly in the morning, turning generally southeasterly during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots with locally higher gusts along the coast. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A light diurnal flow pattern continues through tonight, becoming a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow on Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow will develop Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday night through mid week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 94 75 91 / 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 77 93 77 91 / 0 20 10 0 Destin 77 92 77 91 / 0 20 10 0 Evergreen 72 97 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 97 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 72 94 73 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278842 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 317 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 An anomalously strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over our local area through Wednesday as it remains anchored over the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, observations across the region indicate that a weak boundary looks to be draped across our area, stretching from our southeast Mississippi counties into our coastal counties this afternoon. This subtle boundary looks to be separating mid to upper 60 dewpoints to its north from low to mid 70 dewpoints to its south. Although subsidence from the ridge aloft, along with the drier air filtering in from the northeast, will help to keep rain chances low for the remainder of today and into Tuesday, still cannot rule out a few isolated showers, and perhaps a storm or two, developing along this boundary or along the sea breeze. Highs today and tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices generally around 100-107 degrees. By the Wednesday through Friday timeframe, a rather interesting upper flow pattern sets up across the area. An inverted upper-level trough/low is expected to develop over the western Atlantic, just off the North/South Carolina coast. This upper feature will then push southwestward, crossing Florida on Thursday, and will enter the northeast Gulf on Friday. As this happens, the aforementioned upper ridge will start to retrograde westward, pushing into the Central Plains by Friday. The strong gradient between these two features will allow for a strengthening northeasterly flow pattern to become prevalent aloft, allowing for a much drier airmass to filter into the area from the Appalachians (thanks to cold air damming processes). In fact, dew points Wednesday and Thursday nights may drop into the upper 50s to low 60s for our interior counties. Although highs will still be quite warm (upper 80s to low 90s), our lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 60s for many areas north of I-10. The main hazards to watch out for during this time will be at our beaches. As this drier air filters in, strong easterly winds along the coast will help to increase surf heights at our local beaches to around 4-5 feet Wednesday and Thursday. Any further increase to these heights will likely result in a High Surf Advisory for the coast. Regardless, residents and visitors are urged to stay out of the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday, as a High Risk of life threatening rip currents will be in place for all local beaches. Unfortunately our initial small taste of fall looks to be rather short-lived as moisture values and rain chances quickly increase for the weekend. The upper trough/low should begin pushing to our west Friday night into Saturday, causing our upper winds to shift to southeasterly. With deep moisture being advected in from the Gulf, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to return for the weekend, mainly during the afternoon hours. It should be noted that the latest 12z run from the Euro and its ensembles hint at the possiblity that the upper low may linger just to our east, which would lean towards a bit of a drier scenario. Although right now the forecast leans toward the wetter solution, will be monitoring trends over the coming days and will adjust PoPs accordingly. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A light diurnal flow pattern continues through tonight, becoming a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow on Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow will develop Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday night through mid week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 94 75 91 / 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 77 93 77 91 / 0 20 10 0 Destin 77 92 77 91 / 0 20 10 0 Evergreen 72 97 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 97 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 72 94 73 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278822 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists until retreating from the area later in the week in response to an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail although may see some convective development over extreme southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be 100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk following for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A light diurnal flow pattern sets up today, turning becoming light to moderate easterly flow Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 93 75 91 / 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 77 92 77 91 / 0 10 10 0 Destin 78 92 77 91 / 0 10 10 0 Evergreen 72 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 96 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 73 94 73 91 / 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278810 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Forecast remains on track. MM/25 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists until retreating from the area later in the week in response to an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail although may see some convective development over extreme southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be 100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk following for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region through today. An isolated storm or two are possible this afternoon, generally west of I-65. Winds remain out of the north less than 5 knots through the morning, gradually turning southerly at around 5 knots nearer the coast as the seabreeze moves inland this afternoon. Light and variable winds return to the area after sunset. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A light diurnal flow pattern sets up today, turning becoming light to moderate easterly flow Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 74 93 75 / 20 0 10 10 Pensacola 93 77 92 77 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 92 78 92 77 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 97 72 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 97 72 97 71 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 97 72 96 74 / 20 0 0 0 Crestview 94 73 94 73 / 0 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278786 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists until retreating from the area later in the week in response to an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail although may see some convective development over extreme southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be 100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk following for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region through today. Isolated storms are possible this afternoon, generally west of I-65 that may temporarily reduce ceiling and visibility. Winds remain out of the north less than 5 knots through the morning, gradually turning southerly at around 5 knots nearer the coast as the seabreeze moves inland this afternoon. Light and variable winds return to the area after sunset. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A light diurnal flow pattern sets up today, turning becoming light to moderate easterly flow Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 94 74 93 75 / 20 0 10 0 Pensacola 93 77 92 77 / 10 0 10 10 Destin 92 78 92 77 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 96 71 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 98 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 97 72 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 94 72 94 73 / 10 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1278777 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 14.Sep.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists until retreating from the area later in the week in response to an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail although may see some convective development over extreme southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be 100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk following for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Scattered showers and storms moving toward the coast will diminish by 01-02Z, though outflow could produce a brief northerly wind shift at the Mobile TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon (10-20% chance), mainly near the coast and parts of southeast MS. There is also a low chance (<30%) of isolated patchy fog north of I-10 late tonight. Visibility reductions to MVFR or briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity. Light and variable winds tonight will become northerly in the morning, turning generally southerly to southwesterly during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots over coastal counties. JGC/98 && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast will shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians through the coming week, bringing a tighter gradient over area waters and a moderate easterly flow to protected waters, with moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is expected mid week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 94 74 93 / 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 77 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 77 92 78 92 / 10 0 0 10 Evergreen 71 97 72 96 / 0 10 0 0 Waynesboro 72 97 72 97 / 0 20 0 0 Camden 72 97 72 96 / 0 20 0 0 Crestview 72 94 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
