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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection: |
| #1181058 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 PM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of some localized patchy fog late tonight across the area, primarily across portions of interior southeast Mississippi. Light easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knot winds today becoming light and variable for most locations tonight (except still predominately southeasterly near the coast). On Tuesday expect light south to southeasterly winds across the entire area. DS/12 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Forecast for this afternoon is in good shape, with partly cloudy skies, light winds and warm (hot) temperatures expected to continue. Temperatures are currently in the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s inland, and will likely top out in the upper 80s for most interior locations later this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue across the forecast area tonight through Tuesday as deep ridging continues to build across over Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Upper level troughing continues off the Atlantic coast and also over the western third of the CONUS. Increasing subsidence from the riding will continue to prevent formation of any showers or storms through the near term, and also allow for above normal temperatures. Expect mostly clear skies tonight and then a continuation of partly cloudy skies on Tuesday with daytime heating. Light and variable winds for most locations tonight, then expect a light southeast to southerly flow on Tuesday, slightly stronger near the coast during the afternoon hours. As previously mentioned, temperatures will be a little above normal both tonight and Tuesday. Lows tonight will mainly be ranging from the mid 60s over most interior locations to the upper 60s and lower 70s closer to and along the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will again be quite warm, primarily warming into the upper 80s for most locations (perhaps a few lower 90s, especially over portions of southeast Mississippi), and in the mid 80s near the coast (with a few lower 80s possible along the beaches and barrier islands). DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 87 67 86 68 87 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 70 86 70 84 71 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 72 83 71 83 72 84 74 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 63 89 63 90 66 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 65 90 65 90 66 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Camden 63 89 64 89 66 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Crestview 65 89 63 89 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181024 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of some localized patchy fog late tonight across portions of southeast Mississippi. Calm or light and variable winds this morning become easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots today. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as deep ridging remains across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up today and Tuesday. Skies should be mostly clear at night and partly cloudy during the day. Primarily light easterly winds today and tonight becoming southeasterly on Tuesday. Patchy fog is expected to develop across Stone, George, Perry and southwest Greene counties late tonight. Temperatures will remain 1-5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs today and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows ranging from 62 to 66 degrees interior areas and from 67 to 72 degrees close to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today becomes Low on Tuesday. /22 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The forecast remains dry and warm through at least Thursday. Ridging aloft continues to nose into the region from the southwestern Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten into the Gulf Thursday into the weekend as a series of shortwaves skirt along the periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf through at least Friday and potentially into the early part of the weekend. A weak front associated with the first shortwave will attempt to drift into the MidSouth, but likely won`t make it near our region given the influence of deep layer ridging. The surface high`s grasp over the local area should keep the bulk of the showers and storms further to our north on Friday. We maintained the 15-25% POPs on Friday afternoon, but our confidence in these POPs is rather low at this time given the nearby ridging. The best chance for showers and storms over the weekend will be generally north of the Highway 84 corridor in the afternoon hours and early evening hours. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with the RCMOS probabilities also remaining LOW through the weekend. 07/mb MARINE... Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 68 87 67 86 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 87 70 86 70 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 72 83 71 83 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 88 63 89 63 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 89 65 90 65 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 87 63 89 64 89 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 89 65 89 63 89 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181010 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as deep ridging remains across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up today and Tuesday. Skies should be mostly clear at night and partly cloudy during the day. Primarily light easterly winds today and tonight becoming southeasterly on Tuesday. Patchy fog is expected to develop across Stone, George, Perry and southwest Greene counties late tonight. Temperatures will remain 1-5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs today and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows ranging from 62 to 66 degrees interior areas and from 67 to 72 degrees close to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today becomes Low on Tuesday. /22 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The forecast remains dry and warm through at least Thursday. Ridging aloft continues to nose into the region from the southwestern Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten into the Gulf Thursday into the weekend as a series of shortwaves skirt along the periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf through at least Friday and potentially into the early part of the weekend. A weak front associated with the first shortwave will attempt to drift into the MidSouth, but likely won`t make it near our region given the influence of deep layer ridging. The surface high`s grasp over the local area should keep the bulk of the showers and storms further to our north on Friday. We maintained the 15-25% POPs on Friday afternoon, but our confidence in these POPs is rather low at this time given the nearby ridging. The best chance for showers and storms over the weekend will be generally north of the Highway 84 corridor in the afternoon hours and early evening hours. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with the RCMOS probabilities also remaining LOW through the weekend. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 68 87 67 86 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 87 70 86 70 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 84 72 83 71 83 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 88 63 89 63 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 89 65 90 65 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 87 63 89 64 89 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 89 65 89 63 89 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1180977 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 20.May.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of some localized patchy overnight fog. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday, with the exception of possible late night fog. Winds become light and variable by early this evening, then an east to southeast flow at 5 to 10 knots is expected on Monday. /29 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Dry conditions will persist tonight through Monday as deep ridging becomes reestablished across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and the upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up on Monday. Skies should be mostly clear tonight, and then partly cloudy on Monday. Light and variable winds for most locations tonight, expect for near the coast where a light offshore flow may persist. Primarily light easterly winds across most of the area on Monday, but with a slightly stronger onshore flow along the coast during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s over interior locations and from the mid/upper 60s to the lower 70s closer to and along the coast. High temperatures Monday primarily be in the upper 80s for most locations, with a few lower 90s possible over interior southeast Mississippi and in the mid 80s along the immediate coast. DS/12 SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 An eastward tilted upper level ridge has moved over the Mississippi River, with an upper level trough off the East Coast. Shortwave energy is directed south over the Southeast through the Short Term in response to this configuration, but with a drier airmass moving over the region, no rain is expected. Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected, with mid 80s to around 90 expected for high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected over most of the forecast area through the period, except for low 60s over northeastern-most portions of the forecast area. Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a low risk of rip currents into mid week. /16 LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 By Thursday, the upper ridge has shifted east a bit. It then flattens Friday into Saturday, as an upper level shortwave trough approaches and moves over the Southeast. A surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of Mexico mid week on, with organized southerly flow moving Gulf moisture inland. Guidance is becoming more consistent with the amount and placement of the moisture return. The latest guidance is placing the better moisture further north over the Southeast, and with that, keeping better PoPs for Friday and Saturday generally north of Highway 84. Have a bit better confidence with this more consistent pattern. Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms through the Extended. /16 MARINE... Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Primarily light west to northwest flow tonight through Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Thursday. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant hazards to small craft are expected. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 88 67 88 68 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 70 85 69 84 70 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 71 85 70 84 72 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 87 63 88 64 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 63 89 64 90 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 64 86 63 88 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 64 88 63 88 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
