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| #1273964 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 PM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase today into the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Saturday Through Monday...a somewhat opening upper low moves from over the Central Plains to the Mid West, taking an associated surface low with. I say somewhat opening, become some guidance is maintaining an upper low over the Midwest. As this system moves east, the base digs south over the Southeast, shifting an upper ridge that is pushing east over the northern Gulf coast back west. A trailing weak cold front moves south over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then the western half of the Southeast over the weekend into the coming week. Guidance is advertising this front moving southeast across the forecast area late Saturday into Sunday before stalling southeast of the forecast area by Monday. This front is expected to usher in mainly a drier airmass over the forecast area, as apposed to cooler temperatures. Precipitable h20 values drop from the 2.1"-2.3" range today into Saturday drop into the 1.3"- 1.5" range by Monday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today will decrease and shift east Saturday, then southeast Saturday night on with the drop in deep layer moisture. The eastward shift is due to an upper level shortwave moving southeast across the forecast area later today through tonight. Pulse type severe storms remain a possibility this afternoon, shifting south to the coast by Sunday. Even with the upper ridge moving off, the drier airmass will allow for better daytime heating, keeping high temperatures around seasonal norms over the western half of the forecast area (around 90 to low 90s). The eastern half of the forecast area sees a drop in high temperatures over the weekend, to the upper 80s to near 90, as the better chance of rain shifts east. The drop in moisture levels will allow for better overnight cooling, mainly Sunday on, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s tonight dropping into the low 70s inland from the coast Sunday and Monday, though near coastal and coastal low temperatures remain in the upper 70s. Heat indices drop with the decrease in moisture levels, dropping to below 100 by Monday. Monday night on...the upper low over the Midwest meanders east into mid week before getting deflected northeast by an upper ridge off the East Coast the end of the week. This low`s associated surface low will help to maintain dry northwesterly flow over the forecast area into Wednesday, keeping a dry forecast. The end of the week, as the upper low moves off, the upper high over the Plains builds east over the Southeast, a surface ridge builds over the Southeast, restoring onshore flow to the Southeast and increasing moisture levels. Rain chances see a bit of an increase the end of the week, though with the upper ridge building east over the Southeast, this increase is small. Temperatures see a rise with the increase in influence from the upper ridge, back to above seasonal norms. With moisture levels slow to increase, the rise in heat indices is also slow, rising to the 100-107 range by Friday. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the approaching surface boundary will interact with a surface ridge over the Gulf, creating a tighter pressure gradient along the coast and moderate west to southwest winds. This will increase the Rip Risk to High by late Saturday, with the Florida coast seeing the uptick first. Winds begin to ease Monday, with a Moderate Rip Risk Monday dropping to Low by Tuesday. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 General VFR conditions this afternoon will see drops to low end MVFR in stronger thunderstorms expected to develop. Strong and variable winds are possible with the stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Saturday morning, though the stronger storms are expected in the afternoon. Away from the coast, general westerly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, will become light, then rise to 5 to 10 knots Saturday morning. South of I-10, a tighter pressure gradient will bring westerly winds around 10 knots dropping to 5 to 10 knots overnight. Around 10 knots return Saturday morning. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 74 91 75 / 80 30 30 40 Pensacola 92 78 89 78 / 70 50 40 60 Destin 91 78 88 78 / 60 60 70 70 Evergreen 92 72 89 72 / 70 50 40 50 Waynesboro 94 73 92 73 / 80 30 30 40 Camden 91 73 88 72 / 50 50 40 50 Crestview 94 73 88 74 / 80 50 70 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273940 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 628 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase today through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches. && .UPDATE... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 The current forecast looks on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 An active pattern continues into this weekend as the upper ridge continues to shift westward and an upper trough digs across the eastern states. A stronger shortwave moving through this trough will send a weak front southward into the area this weekend, likely stalling near or north of the area. The cooler mid levels temps combined with approaching boundary and daytime heating will lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Showers and storms will be most numerous during the afternoon and early evening hours. With the increased rain chances, temps will be in the upper 80s and low 90s in most areas. Heat index values will generally be below advisory levels, however some areas could reach around 108 before storms develop. As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90s again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day next week. A few storms could become strong or briefly severe each day with damaging winds the main threat in addition to frequent lightning. A very moist atmosphere combined with slow moving storms will also create locally heavy rain which could cause some localized flash flooding to develop. A moderate risk of rip currents continues today, becoming high this weekend into early next week. /13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop across the area today then diminish this evening, with some convection possibly lingering near the coast overnight. IFR to MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger showers and storms. Calm or light and variable winds become westerly to southwesterly 5-10 knots today. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 75 92 75 / 70 40 30 60 Pensacola 91 78 90 78 / 80 40 60 60 Destin 90 79 88 79 / 70 60 70 70 Evergreen 91 72 89 73 / 60 50 60 50 Waynesboro 92 74 92 73 / 70 30 30 30 Camden 90 73 87 72 / 50 50 50 50 Crestview 92 74 89 74 / 80 50 70 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273911 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase today through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 An active pattern continues into this weekend as the upper ridge continues to shift westward and an upper trough digs across the eastern states. A stronger shortwave moving through this trough will send a weak front southward into the area this weekend, likely stalling near or north of the area. The cooler mid levels temps combined with approaching boundary and daytime heating will lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Showers and storms will be most numerous during the afternoon and early evening hours. With the increased rain chances, temps will be in the upper 80s and low 90s in most areas. Heat index values will generally be below advisory levels, however some areas could reach around 108 before storms develop. As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90s again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day next week. A few storms could become strong or briefly severe each day with damaging winds the main threat in addition to frequent lightning. A very moist atmosphere combined with slow moving storms will also create locally heavy rain which could cause some localized flash flooding to develop. A moderate risk of rip currents continues today, becoming high this weekend into early next week. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A few patches of fog will be possible overnight mainly over interior areas, then MVFR conditions are anticipated with scattered to numerous showers and storms that develop across the area mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Friday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 75 92 75 / 70 40 30 60 Pensacola 91 78 90 78 / 80 40 60 60 Destin 90 79 88 79 / 70 60 70 70 Evergreen 91 72 89 73 / 60 50 60 50 Waynesboro 92 74 92 73 / 70 30 30 30 Camden 90 73 87 72 / 50 50 50 50 Crestview 92 74 89 74 / 80 50 70 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1273900 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 31.Jul.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase today through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 An active pattern continues into this weekend as the upper ridge continues to shift westward and an upper trough digs across the eastern states. A stronger shortwave moving through this trough will send a weak front southward into the area this weekend, likely stalling near or north of the area. The cooler mid levels temps combined with approaching boundary and daytime heating will lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Showers and storms will be most numerous during the afternoon and early evening hours. With the increased rain chances, temps will be in the upper 80s and low 90s in most areas. Heat index values will generally be below advisory levels, however some areas could reach around 108 before storms develop. As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90s again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day next week. A few storms could become strong or briefly severe each day with damaging winds the main threat in addition to frequent lightning. A very moist atmosphere combined with slow moving storms will also create locally heavy rain which could cause some localized flash flooding to develop. A moderate risk of rip currents continues today, becoming high this weekend into early next week. /13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday afternoon and evening, temporarily reducing flight category and potentially producing variable and strong wind gusts. Winds generally out of the west around 5 to 10 knots relax to light and variable tonight. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 92 75 93 / 40 80 40 30 Pensacola 79 91 78 90 / 40 70 40 40 Destin 79 90 79 89 / 30 70 60 70 Evergreen 73 91 72 89 / 50 70 40 60 Waynesboro 74 93 74 93 / 30 80 30 20 Camden 74 90 73 88 / 40 60 30 50 Crestview 74 93 74 89 / 40 90 40 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
