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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection: |
| #1236629 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 PM 01.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 704 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 This afternoon through Thursday... We begin the near term with the forecast area at the base of a weakness in the mid level geo-potential height field, south of a more defined deep layer trof of low pressure pivoting eastward over the Mid MS/Ohio River Valley. The high level flow is increasingly diffluent, set up by the local area on the eastern flank of a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis from the plains into the western Gulf. This has supported a persistence in large scale lift and organized convection over the north central Gulf waters. At the surface, a front was draped from the OH River Valley southwest to across the Mid-South and back into central TX. Embedded in the mean, diffluent west-northwesterly flow aloft, mid-level impulses tracking east-southeast will operate on sufficiently deep environmental moisture (PWAT`s: 1.8-2.1") and instability (MuCAPE`s 3000-4000 J/KG) to support increased coverage of showers and storms the remainder of the day and carrying over into tonight. This is supported by current radar trends and latest short range ensembles. Wind shear is weak, so pulse type storms with updrafts of short life-spans is more favored. Some of the storms though could be strong to marginally severe generally along and west of I-65. Storms will also be efficient in producing locally heavy rains which could cause some isolated instances of mainly nuisance type flooding in lower lying and poorly drained areas. As the front eases southward Wednesday, rain chances begin to taper off up along US Highway 84 while scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms continue south of there. Wednesday night, rain chances become more focused off the coast. The front settles to the coast Thursday with PoPs dropping off to 10% or less area-wide. Wednesday`s highs upper 80`s/lower 90`s heat up into the lower to mid 90`s Thursday. Nights warm. Friday through Tuesday... A narrow upper ridge sets up from the Mid to Lower MS River Valley Friday with the upper trof axis having slipped to the FL Peninsula. Most of the area looks to remain rain-free Friday, aside from isolated showers and storms creating a challenge for July 4th activities. Friday`s highs range 92 to 96. Heat indices somewhat checked with highest range 100 to 105 considering 40-50% daytime RH. Highs will continue in the lower to mid 90`s most areas Saturday through Tuesday. We look to return to a more summer-time convective mode Saturday through Tuesday. Tropics: An area of low pressure could develop from a weakening front by the weekend anywhere from over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. The latest outlook from NHC calls for a low potential (30%) of development. Will continue to monitor in the days ahead. /10 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Outside of showers and thunderstorms VFR flight category prevails. Winds out of the southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots this evening relax and become northwesterly at around 5 knots late overnight into the day Wednesday. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Outside of marine storms, no impactful weather expected the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 90 71 93 71 94 73 94 / 50 50 10 10 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 74 89 74 93 74 94 77 93 / 70 60 20 10 0 10 10 20 Destin 77 91 77 94 77 95 79 94 / 70 60 30 10 10 20 10 20 Evergreen 71 91 69 94 69 95 72 96 / 40 30 0 0 0 10 0 10 Waynesboro 71 91 68 92 69 94 71 96 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 71 89 68 90 68 93 71 94 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 71 90 70 94 69 95 72 95 / 50 60 10 10 0 20 0 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236609 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 PM 01.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 151 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 This afternoon through Thursday... We begin the near term with the forecast area at the base of a weakness in the mid level geo-potential height field, south of a more defined deep layer trof of low pressure pivoting eastward over the Mid MS/Ohio River Valley. The high level flow is increasingly diffluent, set up by the local area on the eastern flank of a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis from the plains into the western Gulf. This has supported a persistence in large scale lift and organized convection over the north central Gulf waters. At the surface, a front was draped from the OH River Valley southwest to across the Mid-South and back into central TX. Embedded in the mean, diffluent west-northwesterly flow aloft, mid-level impulses tracking east-southeast will operate on sufficiently deep environmental moisture (PWAT`s: 1.8-2.1") and instability (MuCAPE`s 3000-4000 J/KG) to support increased coverage of showers and storms the remainder of the day and carrying over into tonight. This is supported by current radar trends and latest short range ensembles. Wind shear is weak, so pulse type storms with updrafts of short life-spans is more favored. Some of the storms though could be strong to marginally severe generally along and west of I-65. Storms will also be efficient in producing locally heavy rains which could cause some isolated instances of mainly nuisance type flooding in lower lying and poorly drained areas. As the front eases southward Wednesday, rain chances begin to taper off up along US Highway 84 while scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms continue south of there. Wednesday night, rain chances become more focused off the coast. The front settles to the coast Thursday with PoPs dropping off to 10% or less area-wide. Wednesday`s highs upper 80`s/lower 90`s heat up into the lower to mid 90`s Thursday. Nights warm. Friday through Tuesday... A narrow upper ridge sets up from the Mid to Lower MS River Valley Friday with the upper trof axis having slipped to the FL Peninsula. Most of the area looks to remain rain-free Friday, aside from isolated showers and storms creating a challenge for July 4th activities. Friday`s highs range 92 to 96. Heat indices somewhat checked with highest range 100 to 105 considering 40-50% daytime RH. Highs will continue in the lower to mid 90`s most areas Saturday through Tuesday. We look to return to a more summer-time convective mode Saturday through Tuesday. Tropics: An area of low pressure could develop from a weakening front by the weekend anywhere from over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. The latest outlook from NHC calls for a low potential (30%) of development. Will continue to monitor in the days ahead. /10 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move southeast through the afternoon before gradually dissipating during the evening hours. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible in and around the heavier showers. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Outside of marine storms, no impactful weather expected the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 90 71 93 71 94 73 94 / 50 50 10 10 0 10 0 20 Pensacola 74 89 74 93 74 94 77 93 / 70 60 20 10 0 10 10 20 Destin 77 91 77 94 77 95 79 94 / 70 60 30 10 10 20 10 20 Evergreen 71 91 69 94 69 95 72 96 / 40 30 0 0 0 10 0 10 Waynesboro 71 91 68 92 69 94 71 96 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 71 89 68 90 68 93 71 94 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 71 90 70 94 69 95 72 95 / 50 60 10 10 0 20 0 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236571 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...Now through Monday... A mean upper trough formed over the eastern Conus Monday. Additional shortwave energy moving into the upper trough over the Southeast will work with a soupy airmass over the region (precipitable h20 values in the 2.1"-2.3" range) to create a wet period through Tuesday night. A strong shortwave moves through the trough Wednesday into Wednesday night, with a weak cold front moving south over the forecast area late Wednesday into Thursday in response. The air behind the front is not appreciably cooler, but significantly drier (moisture levels drop into the 1.0"-1.2" range or drier), shifting the rain over the forecast south over the Gulf and a dry latter half of the work week results. Instability is limited (MLCapes around 1000J/kg) Tuesday, but with the soupy airmass (precipitable h20 levels in the 2.1"-2.3" range), the thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rainers. Guidance continues to paint the best combination of moisture feed off the Gulf and better instability being over our coastal counties. Will need to monitor for water issues. Wednesday through the rest of the week, an upper ridge that has built north over the Plains shifts east, shifting the upper trough off the East Coast, and bringing seasonably warm temperatures back to the forecast area. Guidance is advertising the southern tip of the trough breaking off and organizing into a weakly organized upper low over the Florida Peninsula Friday into the weekend. The latest guidance is advertising this low meandering off the Florida Atlantic Coast. Atlantic moisture works it way west over the Southeast on the north side of this upper low and associated weak surface circulation, bring rain back over the forecast area this weekend into the coming week. NHC continues to monitor the northeastern Gulf/Atlantic seaboard area for the low possibility (20%) of this system becoming tropical. High temperatures in the beginning of the forecast start below seasonal norms, then rise the middle of the week into the coming weekend as the upper ridge comes closer to the forecast area. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday rise into the upper 80s to low 90s for Wednesday, then low to mid 90s for Saturday. Increasing rain chances Sunday and Monday will drop high temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday. Heat indices today are expected to range from 100-106 west of the Tombigbee river, upper 90s east, due to warmer temperatures west of the river. The influx of drier air will drop heat indices into the mid 90s to around 100 range by Thursday. Heat Indices rise back into the 99 to 105 degree range for Saturday as temperatures rise, then drop a few degrees Sunday into the coming week as temperatures cool a bit. Low temperatures see a small fluctuation through the week, falling from the low to mid 70s Tuesday night to upper 60s to mid 70s well inland from the coast (upper 70s continue along the coast) Wednesday and Thursday nights before rising into the low to mid 70s well inland, upper 70s to near 80 system along the coast for the coming weekend. A decent tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Showers and storms redevelop across the area through the day, then diminish this evening. IFR to MVFR conditions accompany the stronger storms. A westerly to northwesterly flow near 5 knots this morning becomes southwesterly 5-10 knots into the afternoon. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected early in the week. A surface front is expected to move south over the northern Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday and stall just south of the marine portion of the forecast area, bringing offshore flow the latter half of the week. Winds will transition back to an east to southeast this coming weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 72 90 71 93 71 95 73 / 80 40 40 10 10 0 10 10 Pensacola 86 74 90 74 93 74 94 76 / 90 50 50 20 20 10 10 10 Destin 88 77 91 77 94 78 95 79 / 80 60 50 30 20 10 20 20 Evergreen 89 70 91 69 94 68 96 71 / 80 30 30 0 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 92 71 91 68 93 69 95 71 / 80 30 20 0 10 0 0 0 Camden 89 70 89 68 90 68 92 71 / 80 30 20 0 10 0 10 0 Crestview 87 71 90 70 94 69 96 71 / 80 40 60 10 20 0 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1236539 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 01.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1232 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...Now through Monday... A mean upper trough formed over the eastern Conus Monday. Additional shortwave energy moving into the upper trough over the Southeast will work with a soupy airmass over the region (precipitable h20 values in the 2.1"-2.3" range) to create a wet period through Tuesday night. A strong shortwave moves through the trough Wednesday into Wednesday night, with a weak cold front moving south over the forecast area late Wednesday into Thursday in response. The air behind the front is not appreciably cooler, but significantly drier (moisture levels drop into the 1.0"-1.2" range or drier), shifting the rain over the forecast south over the Gulf and a dry latter half of the work week results. Instability is limited (MLCapes around 1000J/kg) Tuesday, but with the soupy airmass (precipitable h20 levels in the 2.1"-2.3" range), the thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rainers. Guidance continues to paint the best combination of moisture feed off the Gulf and better instability being over our coastal counties. Will need to monitor for water issues. Wednesday through the rest of the week, an upper ridge that has built north over the Plains shifts east, shifting the upper trough off the East Coast, and bringing seasonably warm temperatures back to the forecast area. Guidance is advertising the southern tip of the trough breaking off and organizing into a weakly organized upper low over the Florida Peninsula Friday into the weekend. The latest guidance is advertising this low meandering off the Florida Atlantic Coast. Atlantic moisture works it way west over the Southeast on the north side of this upper low and associated weak surface circulation, bring rain back over the forecast area this weekend into the coming week. NHC continues to monitor the northeastern Gulf/Atlantic seaboard area for the low possibility (20%) of this system becoming tropical. High temperatures in the beginning of the forecast start below seasonal norms, then rise the middle of the week into the coming weekend as the upper ridge comes closer to the forecast area. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday rise into the upper 80s to low 90s for Wednesday, then low to mid 90s for Saturday. Increasing rain chances Sunday and Monday will drop high temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday. Heat indices today are expected to range from 100-106 west of the Tombigbee river, upper 90s east, due to warmer temperatures west of the river. The influx of drier air will drop heat indices into the mid 90s to around 100 range by Thursday. Heat Indices rise back into the 99 to 105 degree range for Saturday as temperatures rise, then drop a few degrees Sunday into the coming week as temperatures cool a bit. Low temperatures see a small fluctuation through the week, falling from the low to mid 70s Tuesday night to upper 60s to mid 70s well inland from the coast (upper 70s continue along the coast) Wednesday and Thursday nights before rising into the low to mid 70s well inland, upper 70s to near 80 system along the coast for the coming weekend. A decent tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Showers and storms are expected to redevelop across the area again this morning into the early afternoon hours, with IFR to MVFR conditions with the stronger storms. Some patchy fog will be possible during the late night hours over interior areas. Light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots during the day on Tuesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected early in the week. A surface front is expected to move south over the northern Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday and stall just south of the marine portion of the forecast area, bringing offshore flow the latter half of the week. Winds will transition back to an east to southeast this coming weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 90 71 93 71 95 73 94 / 40 40 10 10 0 10 10 30 Pensacola 74 90 74 93 74 94 76 93 / 50 50 20 20 10 10 10 30 Destin 77 91 77 94 78 95 79 94 / 60 50 30 20 10 20 20 30 Evergreen 70 91 69 94 68 96 71 96 / 30 30 0 10 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 71 91 68 93 69 95 71 96 / 30 20 0 10 0 0 0 10 Camden 70 89 68 90 68 92 71 94 / 30 20 0 10 0 10 0 10 Crestview 71 90 70 94 69 96 71 95 / 40 60 10 20 0 20 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
